African Telecommunications: Towards a Renaissance Michael Minges Telecommunication Development Bureau (BDT) International Telecommunication Union (ITU)
AfriTel 99 Driving Wireless Basic Telephony for Africa 1112 February 1999, Cape Town, South Africa
Background • “African Telecommunication Indicators 1998” —ITU Report • “The African Connection” —Report of the African Ministers of Communications
Renaissance ren·ais·sance (rèn´î-säns¹, -zäns¹, rèn¹î-säns´, -zäns´, rî-nâ¹sens) noun 1. A rebirth or revival. 2. Renaissance. a. The humanistic revival of classical art, architecture, literature, and learning that originated in Italy in the 14th century and later spread throughout Europe. b. The period of this revival, roughly the 14th through the 16th century, marking the transition from medieval to modern times. 3. Often Renaissance . a. A revival of intellectual or artistic achievement and vigor: the Celtic Renaissance. b. The period of such a revival. [French, from Old French, from renaistre, to be born again, from Vulgar Latin *renâscere, from Latin renâscì : re-, re- + nâscì, to be born.] The American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language, Third Edition copyright © 1992 by Houghton Mifflin Company. Electronic version licensed from INSO Corporation; further reproduction and distribution restricted in accordance with the Copyright Law of the United States. All rights reserved.
Economic renaissance GDP growth, Developing regions, 1998 % change
Africa
3.6
Middle East
Asia
Americas
Source: International Monetary Fund.
20 fastest growing economies, 1999 GDP growth
3.3
2.6
2.5
Dom. Rep.
6.8
China
6.7
India
6.5
Ireland
6.1
Mauritius
6.0
Uganda
6.0
Senegal
5.7
Cameroon
5.1
Macedonia
5.0
Cuba
5.0
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit.
Telecom renaissance • African telecom sector booming • Various telecom market segments in Africa— fixed, mobile cellular, Internet—growing at highest rates of decade • Africa has highest growth rate in telecoms among all world regions
Fixed line growth Africa: Annual growth in main telephone lines
Forecast
14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7%
Source: ITU.
2000
98
96
6% 94
•
15%
92
•
Africa currently experiencing its highest growth rate in main telephone lines of the decade 5 PTO privatizations in 199697 compared to just one between 199095 Installed base of 15 million lines (end ‘97) will double by 2003
90
•
Fixed line growth drivers Main telephone lines per 100 inhabitants. 4 “privatizers”.
• Economic upswing • Internet • Telecommunication liberalization
2001
2.86
2.91
1996 1991 1.70
1.11
0.90 0.44 0.22 0.19
0.30
Guinea
Ghana
Source: ITU.
0.88
0.65
0.67
Senegal
Côte d'Ivoire
Mobile cellular growth African mobile cellular subscribers (000s)
7'000 6'000
49 45 46 41 Forecast
35
2.4 m
North SSA South
5'000 .8m
3'000
17
Number of countries with cellular
2'000
4m
25
4'000
1'000
Source: ITU.
2000
99
98
97
0 96
•
8'000
95
•
Over 70% growth in 1997 and probably 1998 19 new private operators in last two years 1 million subscribers in ‘96, 2 million in ‘97, almost 4 million in ‘98 and probably over 7 million at end of 2000
94
•
Mobile cellular growth drivers Mobile cellular as % of total telephone subscribers, 1997
• • • • •
Substitute Rapid deployment Competition Strategic partners GSM / Roaming
DR Congo
34%
South Africa
26%
Gabon
20%
Côte d'Ivoire
19%
Ghana
17%
Malawi
16%
DR Congo: War (cellular only way to communicate)
Tanzania
16%
S. Africa: Success of GSM duopoly
Mauritius
14%
Cote d’Ivoire: high substitution after just a little over a year
Gambia
14%
Ghana: 3 operators
AFRICA
Substitution chart: Variety of market structures / reasons:
Malawi: monopoly
Source: ITU.
12%
Internet SubSaharan Africa Internet host computers
5'000
39
4'000
Number of countries 3'000 with local Internet access
31
2'000
12 1'000
Source: ITU, Network Wizards.
Jul-98
1997
0
1996
0
3 1995
• Internet users: By the end of 1998, there were over 1 million Internet users on the continent (850’000 in South Africa).
46
1994
• Internet Service Providers: Around 400 African ISPs by the end of 1998.
6'000
1993
• Internet hosts : By mid 1998 there were about 150’000 Internet host computers in Africa.
Regulatory trends Number of African telecom regulatory agencies
Regulatory reform gathering momentum:
20
– Separation of posts and telecom – Creation of regulators – Privatization – Introduction of competition
21
14
8
7
98
19
97
19
96
19
95
19
19
93
19
92
Source: ITU.
94
5
4
19
•
International traffic Senegal. Sources of telecom revenue, 1996
•
• •
Africa highly dependent on international telephone revenue Accounting rate issue of important concern ITU country case studies for Africa: – – – –
Lesotho Mauritania Senegal Uganda
I n t e r n a t ion a l ca lls 25%
Net se t t le m ent s 29%
Dom e st ic re v e n u e s 46%
(www.itu.int/wtpf/cases/index. htm) Source: ITU Senegal Country Case Study.
Universal access Payphones as % of main telephone lines, 1996
•
•
•
Universal access more relevant for Africa than universal service Distance and time from telephone relevant indicators Widespread public telephone availability cornerstone of universal access policy
6.2%
Senegal Mauritania
3.1%
Swaziland
2.9%
Mali
2.7%
Kenya
2.3%
South Africa
2.2%
Namibia
1.9%
Morocco
1.9%
Comoros
1.8%
S. Tomé
1.8%
Source: ITU.
Morocco
The African Connection • Report of the African Ministers of Communication — May 1998 • Originated at African Ministers Workshop in preparation for Africa Telecom ‘98 • “Road Map” for enabling Africa’s launch into the “Information Age”
Full report available at: http://www.telecom98.co.za/africonnect.html
The African Connection Contents • Special Programme for Least Developed Countries & Rural Telecom Development • African Telecom Policy and Regulatory Framework Development Programme • Human Resources Development Programme • Programme for Financing and Funding Telecom Development in Africa • African Telecom Priority Projects • Programme for the Development of the Information Society in Africa
LDCs & Rural Telecom Development • Sector restructuring • Identify priority project areas • Rural telecommunication development • Technical assistance
33 of 48 LDCs in Africa
Telecom Policy & Regulatory Framework Development • Comprehensive and coordinated telecom policy at continental level • Establishment of national regulatory agencies and regional associations • Coordinated frequency management • Rapid implementation (by June 2000)
Human Resources Development • • • • • •
Database of African telecom experts Database of human resource needs African Human Resource Development Policy African Centres of Excellence Network of human resource institutions Common accreditation and certification
Financing & Funding Telecom Development in Africa
14 Needed investment Actual investment Teledensity
12 10 8 6 4 2
Source: ITU.
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
0
1997
• Measuring levels of investment • Development of African Telecommunications Indicators • Exchange of information and expertise on financing
Telecom investment requirements in SSA, US$ billion
Telecom indicators more appropriate to African conditions
Another phone
Not Near by 6%
South Africa 9 million households
Nearby 5%
e on ph le te % ve 29 Ha
No access 18%
N bo eigh urs 6%
Nearby Public phone 36%
Source: Statistics South Africa. 1997 Census in Brief.
•
Households with a telephone
•
Towns with telephone service Payphones: Per inhabitant, Per main line Distance from a telephone Time from a telephone
• • •
African Telecommunications Priority Projects Telemedicine and Telehealth Telecentres Teleeducation African Centres of Excellence Terrestrial Telecommunications Infrastructure Development • Development of and Access to the Internet in Africa • TeleAgriculture • • • • •
Development of the Information Society in Africa • Develop a Information Society policy framework for Africa • Networking between African Governments using electronic means • Convergence of broadcasting and telecommunications
Conclusions • • • •
There is an African Renaissance but… … affordability is an issue... …plus Africa is not the OECD… …these must be dealt with for renaissance to be sustained.
Affordability South Africa.Telephone service affordability Telkom subscript ion charge: R48. 75
70% 60%
52%
GSM monthly cellular tariffs. January 1999, 100 minutes, US$ % GDP per capita
47%
42%
Nam ibia Mozam bique
Malaw i Madagascar
40
50
60
70
Rand per m ont h Source: South African Universal Service Agency. Universal service and Universal access in Telecommunication in South Africa. www.usa.org.za/
Cot e d'I voire Source: ITU.
$40
22%
$78
1168% $64
Morocco
196% 16%
$35
Sout h Africa
% of households t hat could afford t elephone service at differing m ont hly cost s Threshold: 3% of m ont hly incom e 30
$59
Zambia
59% 72%
$11
225%
$47 $68
124%
Recommendations • Cooperation between government, operators and informal sector • International, regional & bilateral organizations should contribute resources to developing regulatory expertise • Community access • Long term view
ITU Africa Contacts Y. Bancouli Field Office, Dakar Tel: +221 823 4940 Fax:+221 822 8013 Email:bancouli@itu.int
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Y. Kourouma Africa Unit, Geneva Tel: +4122 730 5430 Fax: +4122 730 5484 EMail:kouroma@itu.int
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