INET’99 Dimensions of Internet Diffusion San Jose, California June 23 1999
Measuring the diffusion of the Internet
Michael Minges, minges@itu.int Telecommunication Development Bureau (BDT) International Telecommunication Union (ITU)
Why is measuring Internet diffusion important? Access to the Internet provides important benefits Policies influence Internet access (e.g., competition, pricing, education, etc.) Internet diffusion indicators help measure how effective policies are
Internet diffusion indicators Host computers Subscribers Users Overall access, institutional connectivity and “limitation” indicators
Singapore
Internet Profile 1997 500’000 Users 267’400 Subscribers 57’600 Hosts 1.9% of pop. 8.6% of pop. 16.1% of pop. Source: Nielsen, TAS, Network Wizards.
Internet hosts Most widely “misused” indicator of Internet access “Tight” definition “Scientific” method Regular surveys Marks minimum size of Internet
Internet hosts Worldwide, millions
7.3 43.2
Per 1'000 people
1.05 0.06
4.9
0.3 Oct-90
Jan-95
Jan-99
Source: ITU adapted from Network Wizards.
Host limitations Internet host penetration, Mid-1997 Original Adjusted
50 40 30 20 10
lia str a Au
de n Sw e
Ca n
ad a
0 US A
Methodology changes Differences between Network Wizards, RIPE and national data Does not accurately reflect geographical location Does not really measure accessibility
Note: Original as reported by Network Wizards. Adjusted according to location.Source: OECD.
Internet subscribers Well-defined Increasingly available Marks minimum boundary of users
Singapore: Internet Dialup subscribers, 000s As % of population
13.8% 13.5%
12.9%
13.0%
437
427
413 406
Jan-99 Feb-99 Mar-99 Apr-99 Source: Telecommunications Authority of Singapore. http://www.tas.gov.sg
Subscriber limitations Can be many users utilising one account Statistic not universally available Does not measure overall access
Hong Kong: Number of Internet subscribers, December 1998, 000s 800 700
E-mail accounts Subscribers
600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Dial-up
Leased-line
Source: Office of Telecommunication Authority. http://www.ofta.gov.hk/index_eng1.html
Internet users Better indicator of diffusion than hosts Previously multipliers, now surveys Data improving as market researchers, statistical agencies and others compile user statistics
Internet users, Worldwide, millions % of population
2.5%
1.7%
1.0% 0.5%
150
98
55
26 1995
1996
1997
1998
Source: NUA (http://www.nua.ie)
User limitations Loose definitions makes comparing users problematic Wide variation in estimates Usage may not be as important as accessibility
Internet Users Millions 1.6 1.4 9/97 NASS COM
1.2 1.0
9/97 IDC
0.8 0.6 0.4
“There is no way to determine how many users are on the net, besides making guesses and estimates.” —Network Wizards
0.2 0.0
11/97 ABS Australia
11/97 Wired India
Source: ITU adapted from NUA Internet Surveys.
Accessibility Spain Percent of population:
Percentage of population with access to Internet is a key indicator The location from where users access the Internet (e.g., home, work, school) is also meaningful The percent of schools and businesses connected to the Internet are other useful indicators
26% 19%
6%
Used Internet in last month
8%
Use computer Use computer regularly Have access to Internet
March ‘99
Note: Percentages refer to share of Spanish population 14 years and older. Source: http://www.aui.es/
Awareness Singapore is typical of developed countries where there is a high level of awareness of the Internet In developing countries, which tend to have lower levels of literacy and media exposure, many citizens are unaware of the Internet and its benefits
Singapore: Level of Internet Awareness All who are aware of Internet 1.93m
92% 2%
All who ever bought via Internet 40,000
All adults aged 18-55 2.09m
32%
All who ever used Internet 677,000
Source: National Computer Board. http://www.ec.gov.sg/ECSurvey.html
Don’t forget Internet & Income, 1997 10%
1%
0.1%
0.01%
Internet hosts as % of population
Telephone lines Personal computers $ Income Education
R2=0.74 Estonia
Chile UAE
GDP per capita, US$
0.001% $1'000
$10'000
Note: Based on 100 countries. Logarithmic scale. Source: ITU adapted from Network Wizards and UN data.
Conclusions NOW BEFORE “It is not possible An increase in organisations to determine the compiling exact size of the Internet statistics Internet, where is leading to hosts are improvements in located, or how data quality and many users availability there are.” —Network Wizards
FUTURE Data on geographical location of hosts Consistent definition of user Improved coverage of developing countries
From a policymaking perspective, percentage of population with access to the Internet is the most meaningful indicator.