Open Sesame: Arab Mobile Markets Michael Minges minges@itu.int
The views expressed are those of the author and may not necessarily reflect the opinions of the ITU or its Members
Topics
The mobile revolution Some Arab States behind Emerging Arab mobile stars Issues to consider
A Mobile Revolution Worldwide mobile cellular subscribers (millions)
Mobile as % of total telephone subscribers
More than 300 million users 250’000 new users added each day Users double every 20 months 12% Competitive markets 2%
3%
4%
5%
11
16
23
34
1990
91
92
93
8%
55 94
28% 21% 318
16% 215 144
91 95
96
Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database.
97
98
A mobile future
“Mobile will substitute for fixed telephony as the primary form for personal communications” —Vodafone 2'000
Mobile has overtaken fixed-lines in Cambodia & Finland 1'500 Mobile subscribers to overtake fixed-line worldwide before 2010 1'000 Mobile revenue to overtake fixed-line after 500 2004 0 1990
Telephone subscribers, millions, 1990-2010
Fixed Mobile
2000
2010
Source: 1990-1998 data from ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database. 1999-2010 ITU projections.
Under performing 14
Lebanon
12 Mobile cellular 10 subscribers per 100 8 people, 1997 6
These countries are doing better than expected
Bahrain
Qatar These countries are doing worse than expected
4
Jordan Morocco Oman Egypt Saudi Arabia Tunisia Algeria
2
$2'000
$4'000 $6'000 $8'000 GDP per capita, US$, 1997
$10'000
$12'000
One is no fun ď Ź Arab States have least competitive cellular markets
Limited supply 1
2
1 0
1
2 0 0
1
1
Ĺ’ 1
1 1
3 1
1 1
Number of mobile operators X
1 1 1 0
Uganda NOTE: This map is for illustrative purposes only!!!
Sub-Saharan Mobile Success Story 80
Uganda Mobile subscribers 000s
70 60 50 40 30 20 10
Forecast
Enters market 10/98
More mobile than fixed
Starts up 5/95
0 1995
1996
1997
1998 Sep-99
Uganda: Least Developed Country category Introduces competition October 1998 By September 1999, more mobile than fixed subscribers Both mobile operators backed by strategic foreign investors
Lebanon: The Arab mobile pioneer First Arab country to introduce mobile competition 2 Build-OperateTransfer (BOTs) start May ‘95: Libancell • Sonera (Finland) 14%
Lebanon: Telephone density 25 Forecast 20 Fixed 15 10 5
Cellis • France Telecom 67%
0 1994
Mobile 1996
1998
2000
Lebanon: Universal coverage, high substitution
Egypt opens up 2 000
Egypt: Mobile cellular subscribers (000s) Forecast
1 800 1 600 1 400 1 200 1 000 800 600 400 200
Starts 11/96
Starts 11/98
0 1994 1995 1996 juin- déc- juin- déc- août- déc- déc- déc97 97 98 98 99 99 00 01
Morocco sets a record 18 16
Mobile cellular subscribers per 100 inhabitants
14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1990
93
96
99
Source: Telefonica (Spain)
02
05
08
Awards 2nd license in July 1999 Price of license fee per population highest ever for developing country New operator expects to capture half of market by 2003
Arab Mobile Stages 100
UAE Bahrain Lebanon Qatar Kuwait Oman Saudi Arabia Jordan Egypt Morocco Tunisia Libya Algeria Djibouti Sudan
10
1
0.1
0.01
0.001 1990
1991 1992
1993
1994 1995
1996 1997
1998 2000
Mobile cellular subscribers per 100 inhabitants
Technology Almost all Arab States use GSM: 14 networks 3.1 million subscribers (June ‘99)
Worldwide cellular subscribers by technology, 1998
GSM 44%
3rd generation mobile (IMT-2000):
Global roaming Multimedia Multimode Japan (2001), European Union by 1/1/2002
Digital 70%
D-AMPS 6%
CDMA 7%
Analogue 30%
PHS
PDC 11%
2%
Coverage ď Ź Mobile cellular coverage is an important indicator of Universal Access ď Ź ~ 100% population coverage + pre-paid card = Universal Access
Oman
Morocco
Jordan
Egypt
Saudi Arabia
Europe
WORLD
Arab States
Lebanon
Tunisia
Asia
Kuwait
Qatar
UAE
Yemen
Algeria
Tariffs Mobile Tariffs, 1999, 100 minutes per month, US$
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
For more information… WORLD TELECOMMUNICATION DEVELOPMENT REPORT 1999 Publication launch: 10 October 1999 (TELECOM ‘99) Available on paper and online (PDF format) Website: http://www.itu.int/ti/publications/ wtdr_99/wtdr99.htm Also see: “The world in your pocket”. Telecommunication Survey. October 9 1999. www.economist.com