Measuring the Internet in South East Asia Michael.Minges@itu.int “When you measure what you are speaking about and express it in numbers, you know something about it, but when you cannot express it in numbers your knowledge about is of a meagre and unsatisfactory kind.” —Lord Kelvin
The Internet in South East Asia Bangkok, 21-23 November 2001
Overview Conventional comparisons Useful ICT indicators Defining access to ICT Frameworks Sources Conclusions
The SE Asia Digital Divide I Singapore Brunei Malaysia Thailand Philippines ASEAN Indonesia Viet Nam Cambodia Lao P.D.R. Myanmar
Telephone subscribers per 100 inhabitants 2000 Fixed Mobile 0
Source: ITU.
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90 100 110 120
The SE Asia Digital Divide II Singapore
24.9%
Malaysia Thailand
15.8% 3.8%
ASEAN 8 Philippines
2.3% 2.0%
Indonesia
0.9%
Vietnam Laos
0.1%
Cambodia
0.1% 0%
Source: ITU.
Internet users as % of population 2000
0.3%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
How many Internet users? Who knows‌ What is a user? Regular surveys are only conducted in Singapore In other countries, estimates based on subscribers That such an important indicator should be so unmethodological is shocking!
Singapore: Internet users as % of population, mid-2000 32%
36%
43%
IDA
Nielsen**
14%
Nielsen*NetValue
Note: * Used in last month. ** Total universe. Source: ITU adapted from sources shown.
Internet subscribers Not all countries compile (Thailand & Philippines) “Free� access distorts (Singapore) How to account for access-on-demand and pre-paid cards?
Per 100 inhabitants, 2000 Singapore Malaysia Thailand ASEAN 8 Philippines Indonesia Vietnam
Users
Cambodia
Subscribers
Laos
0.0%
1.0%
Source: ITU.
100.0%
Internet pricing Cambodia Laos Vietnam MEDIAN Philippines Indonesia Thailand Malaysia Singapore
ISP charge Telephone usage Telephone rental $0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
30 hours of Internet access, US$, October 2001 Source: ITU adapted from ISPs / PTOs
International Internet bandwidth 656.74
Per subscriber
1'870
1'898
Per capita
1'360
1'448
31.53 903
816 625
470
9.77
7.22
Bits per second
8 AS EA N
in es
Ph ili
pp
nd
0.56
Th ai la
a
0.57
Ca m bo di
tn am
0.62
Vi e
a In do ne si
al ay sia M
Si n
ga po re
1.62
5.11
La os
442
Definition: ICT Universal Service Universal service to Information & Communication Technology is defined as household access to the Internet Problem is, only Singapore has the information
Singapore % of households 2000 100%
Telephone PC Internet
98%
80% 60% 40%
61% 50%
20% 0%
Survey on Infocomm Usage in Households 2000 http://www.ida.gov.sg/Website/IDAContent. nsf/dd1521f1e79ecf3bc825682f0045a340/fa305296969a7951c8256ab7000c7eca? OpenDocument
Household telephones % of households with a telephone, 2000 Singapore#
98%
Malaysia*
66%
Thailand#
28%
Philippines*
13%
Indonesia*
11%
Vietnam*
8%
Laos* Cambodia*
3% 1% 0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Note: # = Census data. * = Derived from residential fixed telephone lines. Source: ITU.
Definition: ICT Universal Access Access to ICT
Physical ownership / availability Affordability Skills
“There will always be segments of any society that will not want to avail themselves of technology…” “In essence, the real difference between the infopoor and the info-rich is the inequality of physical and financial access to ICT and in the actual usage of sources of information in a particular society.” Source: www.nitc.org.my/resources/AccessEquity.pdf
Sizing the market
Warnet 50%
Universities 5%
In school 28%
Offices 16% High School Relig- 18% ous schools 11%
No access 14%
Only primar No y formal 14% education Indonesia 4%
Potential Internet Users in Total: 61 million 29% of 2000 population
Others 32%
>65 years 4%
<6 years 4%
Source: NITA.
Source: Postel.
Market segmentation in Malaysia, 2000
Frameworks Growing number of indexes for measuring â&#x20AC;&#x153;e-readinessâ&#x20AC;? Problem is many use same indicators How useful are they?
Mosaic comparison Pervasiveness 4 3
Sophistication
2
Singapore Malaysia Thailand
Dispersion
1 0
Organizational
Absorption
Connectivity
Market research Indonesia Malaysia Singapore Vietnam
Statistical agency
Telecom regulator
Statistics Indonesia
POSTEL
www.bps.go.id
Department of Statistics www.statistics.gov.my
Statistics Singapore www.singstat.gov.sg
www.postel.go.id
√ √
www.cmc.gov.my
IDA
√ √
www.ida.gov.sg
General Statistical Office
DGPT MPTC
Cambodia √
Thailand Philippines Laos
CMC
PTD NTC
National Statistical Centre
MCPTC
√
Malaysia & Thai 2000 Census Are the following items available for use by members of this Household: Radio / Hi-fi Television Video / VCD / DVD Fixed Telephone Line Mobile phone Personal Computer (PC) Internet Subscription Source: Question B7. Population and Housing Census Malaysia 2000
% of households with durable appliance AC 10.3 Motor car
25.1
Telephone
27.7
Motor cycle Refrigerator Radio Television
64.5 73.5 77.2 91.5
Source: Thailand 2000 Census www.nso.go.th/pop2000/pop2000.htm
Telephone distribution in Thailand 80%
76%
70%
% of households with telephone By region, 2000
60% 50% 36%
40%
28%
30%
22%
21%
20%
12%
10% 0% Bangkok
Central
THAILAND Southern
Northern
Source: Thailand 2000 Census www.nso.go.th/pop2000/pop2000.htm
Northeastern
Key indicators Number of fixed telephone subscribers Homes with a fixed telephone subscription (%) Estimated Internet users Internet subscribers - Dial-up Internet subscribers - Leased line Internet subscribers - DSL Internet subscribers - Cable modem Internet subscribers - Other broadband Internet subscribers Homes with an Internet subscription (%) International Internet Bandwidth (Mbps) - International outgoing Internet Bandwidth (Mbps) - International incoming Internet Bandwidth (Mbps) Total dial-up Internet traffic (minutes) Number of Personal Computers Homes with a Personal Computer (%)
Market research for Singapore INTERNET USAGE STATISTICS FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER 2001 Number of Sessions per Month Number of Unique Sites Visited Time Spent per Site Time Spent per Month Time Spent During Surfing Session Duration of a Page viewed Active Internet Universe Current Internet Universe Estimate
15 40 21:33 8:35:04 33:30 00:36 871,938 2,120,318
Conclusions Access to ICT is not the same thing as use. Regulators should mandate ICT availability but can only encourage use. Regulators must work with national statistical agencies to include questions about ICT availability in annual household surveys. Regulators must use statistics to gauge ICT development in the country and evolve strategies for enhancing access.