Digital Transformations in the Information Society, ITU, Geneva, 1-2 June 2006
The Digital Opportunity Index (DOI) Michael Minges Senior Market Analyst Telecommunications Management Group, Inc.
Digital Transformations in the Information Society, ITU, Geneva, 1-2 June 2006
Contents • • • • • • •
History What is digital opportunity? ICT Indexes: Problems & solutions About DOI Results DOI and wealth, etc. Extending DOI
Digital Transformations in the Information Society, ITU, Geneva, 1-2 June 2006
History •
•
“In cooperation with each country concerned, develop and launch a composite ICT Development (Digital Opportunity) Index.” — WSIS I, Geneva, Plan of Action, December 2003 “We also note the launch of the … Digital Opportunity Index, which will build upon the common set of core ICT indicators as they were defined within the Partnership on Measuring ICT for Development.” —WSIS II, Tunis, Agenda for the Information Society, November 2005
•
December 2003, Geneva – Digital Access Index launched at WSIS I
•
September 2004, Busan, Korea – Review of existing ICT Indexes
•
June 2005, Seoul, Korea – Prototype Digital Opportunity Index (DOI) discussed
•
November 2005, Tunis – DOI launched at WSIS II with 40 countries
•
May 2006 – Full DOI launched
Digital Transformations in the Information Society, ITU, Geneva, 1-2 June 2006
What is digital opportunity? • The whole population having easy access to Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) at affordable prices; • All homes equipped with ICT devices; • All citizens having mobile ICT devices; and • Everyone using broadband.
Digital Transformations in the Information Society, ITU, Geneva, 1-2 June 2006
Problems with existing indexes • • • • •
Subjective Exclusive Poor choice of indicators Confusing methodology Limited analysis over time
Digital Transformations in the Information Society, ITU, Geneva, 1-2 June 2006
DOI advantages • Objective - Only statistical indicators • Inclusive – 180 economies covered • Standard indicators - “Partnership” core ICT indicators • Straightforward methodology - UNDP HDI oriented, favorable to developing countries • Time series – 2000-2005
Digital Transformations in the Information Society, ITU, Geneva, 1-2 June 2006
DOI structure Percentage of population covered by mobile cellular telephony Internet access tariffs as a percentage of per capita income
Opportunity
Mobile cellular tariffs as a percentage of per capita income
Proportion of households with a computer Proportion of households with Internet access at home
Infrastructure
Mobile cellular subscribers per 100 inhabitants Mobile Internet subscribers per 100 inhabitants
DIGITAL OPPORTUNITY INDEX
Proportion of households with a fixed line telephone
Proportion of individuals that used the Internet Ratio of fixed broadband subscribers to total Internet subscribers
Utilization
Ratio of mobile broadband subscribers to total mobile subscribers
Indicators are averaged within categories, categories are averaged to get DOI.
Índice de Oportunidades Digitales (IOD), Colombia, 2004 Cobertura móvil (% populación) Tarifa Internet (% PIB por habitante) Tarifa móvil (% PIB por habitante)
Hogares con teléfono fijo (%)
80 12.3 5.5
Oportunidad (0.87)
Hogares con computadora (%)
51.0 13.0
Infraestructura
Abonados móvil por 100 habitantes
47.5
(0.24)
Hogares con acceso Internet (%) Abonados Internet móvil por 100 habitantes
8.0 0.4
Usuarios Internet (% populación)
9.8
Abonados banda ancha / Todos abonados Internet
19.0
Abonados móvil 3G / Todos abonados móvil
0
Uso (0.10)
Note: Los categorías son iguales al promedio de cada indicador; el IOD es igual al promedio de los categorías. Fuente: TMG, Inc, adaptado de metodología del UIT.
0.40
Digital Transformations in the Information Society, ITU, Geneva, 1-2 June 2006
Individual-mobile
Household-fixed
Ratio of Broadband mobile subscribers to mobile subscribers
Ratio of Broadband Internet subscribers to Internet subscribers
Only mobile
(Mobile) Internet subscribers per 100 inhabitants
Proportion of individuals that used the Internet Both mobile & fixed
Only fixed
Proportion of households with Internet access at home
Proportion of individuals with Internet-enabled phone
Proportion of households with a computer
Mobile cellular subscribers per 100 inhabitants
Proportion of households with a fixed line telephone
Mobile cellular tariffs as a percentage of per capita income Percentage of population covered by mobile cellular telephony
Internet access tariffs as a percentage of per capita income Distance / time from fixed line
Digital Transformations in the Information Society, ITU, Geneva, 1-2 June 2006
Internet Users in Japan 2004
Source: “Communications Usage Trend Survey in 2004 Compiled�, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (Japan).
Digital Transformations in the Information Society, ITU, Geneva, 1-2 June 2006
Mobile coverage % population covered by mobile signal
450 MHz 950 MHz 2100 MHz 12 km 27 km
49 km
Source: GrameenPhone, International 450 Association.
Digital Transformations in the Information Society, ITU, Geneva, 1-2 June 2006
Tariffs Internet & mobile baskets OECD low user mobile basket, per month, national currency
OECD low user monthly mobile basket
50 45
To Fixed
Onnet
Offnet
TOTAL
Peak
6.38
5.32
2.39
14.1
30
Offpeak
5.88
4.90
2.21
12.0
25
Week end
4.54
Calls
25
SMS
30
minutes
3.78
1.70
1.2% 1.0%
40 35
10.0
0.8%
15
As % of per capita income Swisscom
10
Orange
20
5
0.6% 0.4% 0.2%
Sunrise
0
0.0% 1998
2000
2002
2004
Digital Transformations in the Information Society, ITU, Geneva, 1-2 June 2006
Household ICTs % of households with, 2005:
90 80
80
70
70
60
60
50
0
20 10 0 20 03
10
30
20 01
20
Fixed line Computer Internet
40
19 99
50
30
Iceland Singapore Canada Slovenia Argentina Chile Brazil China
Source: TMG, Inc. .
Source: Hagstofa ﾃ行lands .
90
40
% of households with Internet access: 100
19 97
100
Digital Transformations in the Information Society, ITU, Geneva, 1-2 June 2006
Mobile Internet Receiving calls
100.0% 95.5%
SMS MMS Download tones, etc.
73.2% 13.5% 12.2%
Navigate 0.4% Internet E-mail 0.2%
40%
250
35%
200
30% 25%
150
% of mobile users, 2005
45%
20%
100
15% 10%
50
5%
0
0% 2001
2002
2003
2004
Source: OSIPTEL.
Source: ANRT.
Making calls
300
WAP subscribers (000s) % Internet subscribers % Mobile subscribers
Digital Transformations in the Information Society, ITU, Geneva, 1-2 June 2006
35,000
30
30,000
25
25,000
20
20,000
15
15,000
10
10,000
5
5,000
0
0
35% 30%
3G as % of total
3G 2.5G
25% 20% 15% 10%
2G 1G
19 94 19 96 19 98 20 00 20 02 20 04
Jan-05
35
Nov-04
40,000
Sep-04
40
Jul-04
45,000
May-04
45
Mar-04
Mobile subscribers, 000s
Jan-04
Permanent Internet connections as % of all subscriptions
5% 0%
Source: Adapted from SKT, KTF, LGT.
Source: National Statistics.
Broadband
Colombia y IOD 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 2000
2002
2004
IOD, 2004
Korea Chile Argentina Mexico Uruguay Brazil Costa Rica Venezuela Peru Panama Colombia El Salv. Ecuador Guatemala Bolivia Paraguay Honduras Nicaragua
Colombia, IOD
Fuente: CRT, DANE y estimaciones (Colombia), UIT (otros paĂses).
Digital Transformations in the Information Society, ITU, Geneva, 1-2 June 2006
DOI, 2005 Low
Medium
Upper
High
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0 Opportunity
Infrastructure
Utilization
World Average
Digital Transformations in the Information Society, ITU, Geneva, 1-2 June 2006
Top & bottom ten
Rankings
1
Korea (Rep.)
0.79
2
Japan
0.71
3
Denmark
0.71
Why Korea is number 1
4
Iceland
0.69
Indicator
5
Hong Kong
0.69
Mobile coverage
6
Sweden
0.69
1 (with 38 countries)
7
UK
0.67
Mobile affordability
8
Norway
0.67
1 (with 33 countries)
9
Netherlands
0.66
Internet affordability
10
Taiwan-China
0.66
1 (with 27 countries)
171
Solomon Is.
0.09
Household fixed lines
18
172
Sierra Leone
0.09
Household PC
4
173
Ethiopia
0.09
Household Internet
3
174
Malawi
0.08
Mobile density
36
175
Rwanda
0.08
Mobile Internet density
2
176
Myanmar
0.04
Internet user density
2
177
Guinea Bissau
0.04
178
Eritrea
0.03
Broadband ratio
1
179
Niger
0.02
3G ratio
1
180
Chad
0.01
World rank
Digital Transformations in the Information Society, ITU, Geneva, 1-2 June 2006
Mobile DOI
Kenya
Burkina Faso
Cambodia
Bangladesh
South Africa
Philippines
Czech Republic
Brazil
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Bahrain
Lithuania
Korea (Rep.)
Japan
Hong Kong
Switzerland
United States
Canada
1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Iceland
Fixed DOI Mobile DOI Mobile Contribution to DOI
Digital Transformations in the Information Society, ITU, Geneva, 1-2 June 2006
DOI & GDP 1.0
R2 = 0.8753
0.9 0.8
DOI
0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 $0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
GDP per capita, US$
$50,000
$60,000
Digital Transformations in the Information Society, ITU, Geneva, 1-2 June 2006
DOI & human Development Digital Opportunity Index, 2004
0.8 0.7
R2 = 0.8457
0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
Human Development Index, 2005
0.8
0.9
1.0
Digital Transformations in the Information Society, ITU, Geneva, 1-2 June 2006
Regulatory Scorecard Results, 2003 200 12
250
300
350
400
Change in DOI rank, 2002-2004
10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6
R2 = 0.6394
Source: Jones Day / ECTA, 2004 Regulatory Telecommunications Scorecard, http://www.jonesday.com/pubs/pubs_detail.aspx?pubID=S1187
DOI & regulation
Digital Transformations in the Information Society, ITU, Geneva, 1-2 June 2006
Other DOI permutations • Gender (Czech Republic) • Within a country (Brazil)
Digital Transformations in the Information Society, ITU, Geneva, 1-2 June 2006
Extending DOI DOI + Knowledge (e.g., UNDP Education sub index) + Regulatory (e.g., EU Regulatory Scorecard) + E-Business (e.g., EC The e-business readiness composite indicator) E-Government (e.g., UN e-government index)
DOI
e-business
Education
Regulation
Denmark Ireland (+4) Italy (+1)
Sweden (-1) UK (+1)
Spain (-1) Belgium
Netherlands Germany (-4)
Digital Transformations in the Information Society, ITU, Geneva, 1-2 June 2006
Thank you minges@d-two.info