Digital Opportunity Index
Michael Minges TMG, Inc.
2007 Partnership Forum on Measuring Information Society Taipei International Convention Center, 26 October 2007
Digital Opportunity Index History Results Comparability Recommendations
World Summit on the Information Society (WSIS) Plan of Action
1. In cooperation with each country concerned, develop and launch a composite ICT Development (Digital Opportunity) Index.
Definitions
The whole population having easy access to Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) at affordable prices; All homes equipped with ICT devices; All citizens having mobile ICT devices; and Everyone using broadband.
Digital “of or relating to data in the form of numerical digits”
Opportunity “a good chance for advancement or progress”
Index “a number (as a ratio) derived from a series of observations and used as an indicator or measure”
Source: www.webster.com
Problems with existing indexes Subjective Exclusive Poor
choice of indicators Outdated / incorrect / missing data Opaque / unavailable methodology Limited analysis over time
Why an another ICT index? • Almost all existing ICT indices concentrate primarily on developed economies • Some do not use internationally comparable indicators and some have methodological snags or are susceptible to distortions due to the use of qualitative variables • Most are not specifically targeted at measuring ICT access • Wherever these indices use too many variables, transparency compromised
I ndex 1 I ndex 2 I ndex 3 DAI
178
120 100 82 53
15
Variables
60
8 Countries
Human Development Index
“The human development index (HDI) is a composite index that measures the average achievements in a country in three basic dimensions of human development:
• • •
a long and healthy life, as measured by life expectancy at birth; knowledge, as measured by the adult literacy rate and the combined gross enrolment ratio for primary, secondary and tertiary schools; and a decent standard of living, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in purchasing power parity (PPP) US dollars. The index is constructed from indicators that are available globally using a methodology that is simple and transparent.”
http://hdr.undp.org/hd
Partnership on Measuring ICT for Development
Approved list of ICT indicators
http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/ict/partnership/material/CoreICTIndicators.pdf
Indicators Percentage of population covered by mobile cellular telephony
Percentage of population covered by mobile cellular telephony
Internet access tariffs (20 hours per month) as a % of per capita income
Internet access tariffs (20 hours per month) as a % of per capita income
Mobile cellular tariffs (100 minutes of use per month) as a % of per capita income
Mobile cellular tariffs (OECD low user basket) as a % of per capita income
Proportion of households with a fixed line
Proportion of households with a fixed line
Proportion of households with a computer
Proportion of households with a computer
Proportion of households with Internet
Proportion of households with Internet
Mobile cellular subscribers per 100 inhabitants
Mobile cellular subscribers per 100 inhabitants
Proportion of individuals who used the Internet
Proportion of individuals who used the Internet
Internet subscribers per 100 inhabitants
Proportion of mobile Internet subscribers
Broadband Internet subscribers per 100 inhabitants
Proportion of broadband subscribers Proportion of 3G subscribers
Core
DOI
Categories
Utilization
Infrastructure
Opportunity
DOIÂ structure Percentage of population covered by mobile cellular telephony Opportunity
Mobile cellular tariffs as a percentage of per capita income Proportion of households with a fixed line telephone Proportion of households with a computer Proportion of households with Internet access at home
Infrastructure
Mobile cellular subscribers per 100 inhabitants Mobile Internet subscribers per 100 inhabitants Proportion of individuals that used the Internet Ratio of fixed broadband subscribers to total Internet subscribers
Utilization
Ratio of mobile broadband subscribers to total mobile subscribers
Indicators are averaged within categories, categories are averaged to get DOI.
DIGITAL OPPORTUNITY INDEX
Internet access tariffs as a percentage of per capita income
DOIÂ Timeline
Dec03
Sep04
Jun05
May06
May07
DOI advantages Objective
- Only statistical indicators Inclusive – 180 economies covered Standard indicators - “Partnership” core ICT indicators Straightforward methodology - UNDP HDI oriented, favorable to developing countries Defendable goalposts Time series – 2000-2005
DOI similar to Taiwan’s “eLife” indicators
Digital Opportunity Index (DOI), Taiwan, 2005 Mobile coverage (% population)
99
Internet tariff (% GDP per capita)
0.7
Mobile tariff (% GDP per capita)
0.9
Households with fixed line (%)
98
Households with computer (%)
76
Mobile subscribers per 100 inhabitants
97
Households with Internet access (%)
67
Mobile Internet subscribers per 100 inhabitants
35
Internet users (% population)
42
Broadband subscribers / All Internet subscribers
70
3G subscribers / All mobile subscribers
2
Opportunity (0.99)
Infrastructu re (0.75)
Utilization (0.38)
DOI 0.70
Taiwan, DOI, 2005 Mobile pop. coverage ( % ) 42 countries>99% Mobile broadband rat io
Korea = 33%
Broadband I nt ernet rat io
Korea = 100% I nt ernet users per 100
Korea = 68%
Mobile, % incom e
Norway = 0.1% Fixed, % hom es
Taiwan, Singapore = 98%
Mobile I nt ernet per 100
Denmark = 70%
“GPRS subscriptions”
I nt ernet , % incom e Hong Kong, Switzerland = 0.2%
Mobile per 100
Luxembourg = 142 24 countries > 100
PC, % hom es
Iceland = 89% I nt ernet , % hom es
Iceland = 84%
Source: Adapted from DBAS, FIND, CHT, ITU.
Taiwan, DOI over time 1.0 0.9 0.8
10
World Rank 9
0.7
9
8
0.6
7
7
0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Digital Transformations in the Information Society, ITU, Geneva, 1-2 June 2006
Individual-mobile
Household-fixed
Ratio of Broadband mobile subscribers to mobile subscribers
Ratio of Broadband Internet subscribers to Internet subscribers
Only mobile (Mobile) Internet subscribers per 100 inhabitants
Proportion of individuals that used the Internet Both mobile & fixed
Only fixed Proportion of households with Internet access at home
Proportion of individuals with Internet-enabled phone
Proportion of households with a computer
Mobile cellular subscribers per 100 inhabitants
Proportion of households with a fixed line telephone
Mobile cellular tariffs as a percentage of per capita income Percentage of population covered by mobile cellular telephony
Internet access tariffs as a percentage of per capita income Distance / time from fixed line
0.00 Canada
Switzerland
United States
Sweden
Netherlands
Denmark
Singapore
Hong Kong
Korea (Rep.)
United Kingdom
Australia
Taiwan
Austria
Colombia
Brazil
0.05
Japan
0.10
Russia
Malaysia
Thailand
China
India
S. Africa
Philippines
Indonesia
Mobile DOI 0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
Fixed share (right scale) Mobile share (right scale) Mobile DOI (left scale) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Modular Core indicators on access and use of ICTs by households and individuals
Non e-indices (e.g., Human Development Index)
DOI Infrastructure & access core indicators
Future core indicators (e.g., education, government, health, etc.)
Core indicators on access and use of ICTs by businesses
DOI extensions Gender Age Regions
DOI compared to other eindices
DOI
NRI
EIU
IOI
Korea (Rep.)
1
19
16
22
Japan
2
14
18
27
Denmark
3
1
1
5
Iceland
4
8
Singapore
5
3
6
7
Netherlands
6
6
8
4
Taiwan
7
13
17
17
Hong Kong
8
12
4
3
Sweden
9
2
2
1
UK
10
9
7
8
Finland
11
4
10
19
Norway
12
10
12
10
Switzerland
16
7
5
6
United States
20
3
2
13
Australia
22
15
9
14
9
Infrastructure indicators & Asia Mobile
per 100: Advanced Asian economies have low prepaid %, lower SIM cards per 100 but just as high household and individual usage of cellular International bandwidth: Not hubs likes US or Europe; more national content so less need for international bandwidth
Subjective data
82
6.4
78
6.2
68
6.0
58
5.8
48
5.6
38
5.4
28
5.2
23 15
12
5.0 Brazil
Source: WEF, World Bank.
18
India
Mauritius
8 8 Senegal South Africa
Number of days for obtaining phone line
Ease of obtaining phone line (7=best)
Ease of obtaining phone line (7=best) Number of days for obtaining phone line
Millions
WLAN users
5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0
Mobile Internet access GPRS + WAP subscribers
Mobile Internet Definitions
Economy
Definition
Korea
Users of providers mobile Internet services
Japan
Internet Provider Services of Mobile Telephone
Denmark
GPRS subscriptions
Iceland
Derived from households using mobile to access Internet
Singapore
Estimate derived from mobile data traffic
Neth.
Branded portal subscribers for 3 largest MNOs
Taiwan
GPRS + WAP subscribers
Hong Kong
2.5G +3G subscribers
Sweden
Active GPRS and UMTS subscriptions
United Kingdom
% of subscribers using nonSMS data services
Taiwan weakness in NRI
E-government readiness index (World rank: 121) Residential telephone monthly subscription (115) E-participation index(109) Lowest cost of broadband (100) Business monthly telephone subscription (99) Monthly broadband subscription charge (90) Cost of cellular phone call (80) Business telephone connection charge (74) Residential telephone connection charges (71) Number of procedures to start a business (69)
Singapore
Sweden
40
United Kingdom Hong Kong, China
50
Denmark
Korea
United States
Netherlands
New Zealand
Japan
Taiwan
Doing Business (World Bank) vs. Business Environment (EIU) 60
World Bank EIU
30
20
10
0
Recommendations Modular
approach with agreement on different categories More attention to details of indicators Better quantification of non-numerical factors Methodologies and historical trends
Contact minges@tmgtelecom.com
www.tmgtelecom.com