Digital Opportunity Index

Page 1

Digital Opportunity Index

Michael Minges TMG, Inc.

2007 Partnership Forum on Measuring Information Society Taipei International Convention Center, 26 October 2007


Digital Opportunity Index  History  Results  Comparability  Recommendations


World Summit on the Information Society (WSIS) Plan of Action

1. In cooperation with each country concerned, develop and launch a composite ICT Development (Digital Opportunity) Index.


Definitions 

The whole population having easy access to Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) at affordable prices; All homes equipped with ICT devices; All citizens having mobile ICT devices; and Everyone using broadband.

Digital “of or relating to data in the form of numerical digits”

Opportunity “a good chance for advancement or progress”

Index “a number (as a ratio) derived from a series of observations and used as an indicator or measure”

Source: www.webster.com


Problems with existing indexes  Subjective  Exclusive  Poor

choice of indicators  Outdated / incorrect / missing data  Opaque / unavailable methodology  Limited analysis over time


Why an another ICT index? • Almost all existing ICT indices concentrate primarily on developed economies • Some do not use internationally comparable indicators and some have methodological snags or are susceptible to distortions due to the use of qualitative variables • Most are not specifically targeted at measuring ICT access • Wherever these indices use too many variables, transparency compromised

I ndex 1 I ndex 2 I ndex 3 DAI

178

120 100 82 53

15

Variables

60

8 Countries


Human Development Index 

“The human development index (HDI) is a composite index that measures the average achievements in a country in three basic dimensions of human development:

• • •

a long and healthy life, as measured by life expectancy at birth; knowledge, as measured by the adult literacy rate and the combined gross enrolment ratio for primary, secondary and tertiary schools; and a decent standard of living, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in purchasing power parity (PPP) US dollars. The index is constructed from indicators that are available globally using a methodology that is simple and transparent.”

http://hdr.undp.org/hd


Partnership on Measuring ICT for Development 

Approved list of ICT indicators

http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/ict/partnership/material/CoreICTIndicators.pdf


Indicators Percentage of population covered by mobile cellular telephony

Percentage of population covered by mobile cellular telephony

Internet access tariffs (20 hours per month) as a % of per capita income

Internet access tariffs (20 hours per month) as a % of per capita income

Mobile cellular tariffs (100 minutes of use per month) as a % of per capita income

Mobile cellular tariffs (OECD low user basket) as a % of per capita income

Proportion of households with a fixed line

Proportion of households with a fixed line

Proportion of households with a computer

Proportion of households with a computer

Proportion of households with Internet

Proportion of households with Internet

Mobile cellular subscribers per 100 inhabitants

Mobile cellular subscribers per 100 inhabitants

Proportion of individuals who used the Internet

Proportion of individuals who used the Internet

Internet subscribers per 100 inhabitants

Proportion of mobile Internet subscribers

Broadband Internet subscribers per 100 inhabitants

Proportion of broadband subscribers Proportion of 3G subscribers

Core

DOI


Categories

Utilization

Infrastructure

Opportunity


DOIÂ structure Percentage of population covered by mobile cellular telephony Opportunity

Mobile cellular tariffs as a percentage of per capita income Proportion of households with a fixed line telephone Proportion of households with a computer Proportion of households with Internet access at home

Infrastructure

Mobile cellular subscribers per 100 inhabitants Mobile Internet subscribers per 100 inhabitants Proportion of individuals that used the Internet Ratio of fixed broadband subscribers to total Internet subscribers

Utilization

Ratio of mobile broadband subscribers to total mobile subscribers

Indicators are averaged within categories, categories are averaged to get DOI.

DIGITAL OPPORTUNITY INDEX

Internet access tariffs as a percentage of per capita income


DOIÂ Timeline

Dec03

Sep04

Jun05

May06

May07


DOI advantages  Objective

- Only statistical indicators  Inclusive – 180 economies covered  Standard indicators - “Partnership” core ICT indicators  Straightforward methodology - UNDP HDI oriented, favorable to developing countries  Defendable goalposts  Time series – 2000-2005


DOI similar to Taiwan’s “e­Life” indicators


Digital Opportunity Index (DOI), Taiwan, 2005 Mobile coverage (% population)

99

Internet tariff (% GDP per capita)

0.7

Mobile tariff (% GDP per capita)

0.9

Households with fixed line (%)

98

Households with computer (%)

76

Mobile subscribers per 100 inhabitants

97

Households with Internet access (%)

67

Mobile Internet subscribers per 100 inhabitants

35

Internet users (% population)

42

Broadband subscribers / All Internet subscribers

70

3G subscribers / All mobile subscribers

2

Opportunity (0.99)

Infrastructu re (0.75)

Utilization (0.38)

DOI 0.70


Taiwan, DOI, 2005 Mobile pop. coverage ( % ) 42 countries>99% Mobile broadband rat io

Korea = 33%

Broadband I nt ernet rat io

Korea = 100% I nt ernet users per 100

Korea = 68%

Mobile, % incom e

Norway = 0.1% Fixed, % hom es

Taiwan, Singapore = 98%

Mobile I nt ernet per 100

Denmark = 70%

“GPRS subscriptions”

I nt ernet , % incom e Hong Kong, Switzerland = 0.2%

Mobile per 100

Luxembourg = 142 24 countries > 100

PC, % hom es

Iceland = 89% I nt ernet , % hom es

Iceland = 84%

Source: Adapted from DBAS, FIND, CHT, ITU.


Taiwan, DOI over time 1.0 0.9 0.8

10

World Rank 9

0.7

9

8

0.6

7

7

0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006


Digital Transformations in the Information Society, ITU, Geneva, 1-2 June 2006

Individual-mobile

Household-fixed

Ratio of Broadband mobile subscribers to mobile subscribers

Ratio of Broadband Internet subscribers to Internet subscribers

Only mobile (Mobile) Internet subscribers per 100 inhabitants

Proportion of individuals that used the Internet Both mobile & fixed

Only fixed Proportion of households with Internet access at home

Proportion of individuals with Internet-enabled phone

Proportion of households with a computer

Mobile cellular subscribers per 100 inhabitants

Proportion of households with a fixed line telephone

Mobile cellular tariffs as a percentage of per capita income Percentage of population covered by mobile cellular telephony

Internet access tariffs as a percentage of per capita income Distance / time from fixed line


0.00 Canada

Switzerland

United States

Sweden

Netherlands

Denmark

Singapore

Hong Kong

Korea (Rep.)

United Kingdom

Australia

Taiwan

Austria

Colombia

Brazil

0.05

Japan

0.10

Russia

Malaysia

Thailand

China

India

S. Africa

Philippines

Indonesia

Mobile DOI 0.30

0.25

0.20

0.15

Fixed share (right scale) Mobile share (right scale) Mobile DOI (left scale) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%


Modular Core indicators on access and use of ICTs by households and individuals

Non e-indices (e.g., Human Development Index)

DOI Infrastructure & access core indicators

Future core indicators (e.g., education, government, health, etc.)

Core indicators on access and use of ICTs by businesses


DOI extensions  Gender  Age  Regions


DOI compared to other e­indices

DOI

NRI

EIU

IOI

Korea (Rep.)

1

19

16

22

Japan

2

14

18

27

Denmark

3

1

1

5

Iceland

4

8

Singapore

5

3

6

7

Netherlands

6

6

8

4

Taiwan

7

13

17

17

Hong Kong

8

12

4

3

Sweden

9

2

2

1

UK

10

9

7

8

Finland

11

4

10

19

Norway

12

10

12

10

Switzerland

16

7

5

6

United States

20

3

2

13

Australia

22

15

9

14

9


Infrastructure indicators & Asia  Mobile

per 100: Advanced Asian economies have low prepaid %, lower SIM cards per 100 but just as high household and individual usage of cellular  International bandwidth: Not hubs likes US or Europe; more national content so less need for international bandwidth


Subjective data

82

6.4

78

6.2

68

6.0

58

5.8

48

5.6

38

5.4

28

5.2

23 15

12

5.0 Brazil

Source: WEF, World Bank.

18

India

Mauritius

8 8 Senegal South Africa

Number of days for obtaining phone line

Ease of obtaining phone line (7=best)

Ease of obtaining phone line (7=best) Number of days for obtaining phone line


Millions

WLAN users

5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0

Mobile Internet access GPRS + WAP subscribers

Mobile Internet Definitions

Economy

Definition

Korea

Users of providers mobile Internet services

Japan

Internet Provider Services of Mobile Telephone

Denmark

GPRS subscriptions

Iceland

Derived from households using mobile to access Internet

Singapore

Estimate derived from mobile data traffic

Neth.

Branded portal subscribers for 3 largest MNOs

Taiwan

GPRS + WAP subscribers

Hong Kong

2.5G +3G subscribers

Sweden

Active GPRS and UMTS subscriptions

United Kingdom

% of subscribers using nonSMS data services


Taiwan weakness in NRI          

E-government readiness index (World rank: 121) Residential telephone monthly subscription (115) E-participation index(109) Lowest cost of broadband (100) Business monthly telephone subscription (99) Monthly broadband subscription charge (90) Cost of cellular phone call (80) Business telephone connection charge (74) Residential telephone connection charges (71) Number of procedures to start a business (69)


Singapore

Sweden

40

United Kingdom Hong Kong, China

50

Denmark

Korea

United States

Netherlands

New Zealand

Japan

Taiwan

Doing Business (World Bank) vs. Business Environment (EIU) 60

World Bank EIU

30

20

10

0


Recommendations  Modular

approach with agreement on different categories  More attention to details of indicators  Better quantification of non-numerical factors  Methodologies and historical trends


Contact minges@tmgtelecom.com

www.tmgtelecom.com


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