Telecommunication Challenges in Asia: A roundtable dialogue 14-15 June 1995 Hongkong
“Multimedia and convergence What converges in convergence?� Michael Minges International Telecommunication Union
Topics • • • • •
Multimedia and covergence Asian Information Society Benefits Visions & Strategies Regulation
Multimedia • Integration of voice, text, image, data and video applications. • Multiple interpretations. In the telecom’s world, the development of networks (i.e. information infrastructures / information superhighways) capable of supporting multiple information types.
What is convergence? converge v.i. come together or towards the same point. - The Little Oxford Dictionary • Technical - Voice, text, data, image and video can all be converted to digital format • Organizational - telecommunications, broadcasting & computer companies are entering each others’ domains • Societal - Businesses and households are consuming more types of information
The Asian Information Society • • • •
Growing service sector Growing information usage Growing household information consumption Growing share of economy
The Asian economy China
25%
India Philippines Thailand Singapore Hongkong
Source: Asian Development Bank.
Services share of GDP 1993 41% 43% 47% 63% 77%
The information economy Singapore
26%
Japan Malaysia Philippines Indonesia Thailand
Source: ITU.
19% 14% 12% 11% Primary info-sector 10% Share of GDP, 1975-76
Home information equipment 1000
„ Ă ď† " Developing Asia-Pacific co ' Ă&#x; g TVs
100
Home telephone lines
Source: ITU.
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
10
Info-Communications sector 11% 10%
Share of Info-communications sector in GDP, Japan
9% 8% 7% 6%
Source: Ministry of Posts and Telecommunications, Japan.
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
5%
Benefits of info-infrastructures • Social • Economic
Health & Education Lao
33%
Thailand Philippines Indonesia China
Source: UNDP.
30% 25% 20% % of population 10% without access to health service
China
57%
Thailand India Malaysia Korea (Rep.)
55% 50% 42% 26% % school age not enrolled
Service sector development India' s computer software exports US$ m
270 220
189 113
123
1989
1990
1991
Source: Department of Electronics, India.
1992
1993
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) FDI and Teledensity 1992
FDI per capita (US$)
$ 10' 000
Singapore
$ 1' 000
Malaysia
$ 100 Thailand $ 10 Pakistan $1 1
Log scale. Source: ITU.
10 Teledensity
100
Brain Drain Reversal 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
Foreign student enrollment in US universities (000s)
1976
1980
1985
1990
1991
1992
¶âðCOther â Source: Institute of International Education.
1993
Leap frogging Capital costs per paying subscriber, US$, 1994
Component
Traditional telephone technology
Hybrid fibre/coaxial cable
Wiring Switching Electronics
1,000 - 1,500 150 - 200 0
180 -250 150 - 200 370 - 530
Total capital costs
1,150 - 1,700
700 - 980
Source: First Pacific Networks.
Visisions & strategies • Governmental – The Global information infrastructure (Gii) – The Asian information infrastructure (Aii) – National information infrastructure (Nii)
• Business
Global information infrastructure • ITU World Telecommunication Development Conference, March 1994 (according to US) – – – – –
Private investment Competition Open access Flexible regulatory environment Universal service
• G-7 Information Society Conference, Brussels, February 1995
Asia information infrastructure • Asia Pacific Telecommunity • Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation Forum
National info infrastructures • China - Informatization of the Domestic Economy • Japan - Reforms toward the Intellectually Creative Society of the 21st Century • Korea (Rep.) - National Information Superhighway System • Singapore - IT2000:The Intelligent Island
Singapore IT 2000: The Intelligent Island • • • • •
A global hub Improve quality of life Economic growth Linking locally and globally Knowledge building
China: The 3 Goldens
The GOLDEN Bridge
The GOLDEN Card
The GOLDEN Customs
Corporate strategies: From voice to multimedia “By 1998, businesses’ and governments’ use of data communications will exceed their use of voice services.” MCI
Source: Hongkong Telecom.
1994
1993
18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
200 Hongkong' s 180 outgoing fax 160 & data traffic As % of 140 total traffic 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
Fax & data as % of total
Minutes m
Fax and data traffic
Data traffic Telekom Malaysia' s outgoing data traffic (Minutes m)
4.3 3.5 2.9
2.2 1.5
1989
1990
Source: Telekom Malaysia.
1991
1992
1993
Data revenues 150 125
Singapore Telecom' s data revenues
As % of total revenues
US$ m
100 75 50 25 0 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994
Source: Singapore Telecom.
10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0%
ISDN ü ¶cEconomies with IS 13 9
Asia-Pacific
Rest of world
Note: ISDN=Integrated Services Digital Network. Source: ITU.
Value-added services DACOM (Korea) EDI subscribers
5' 010
2' 832
520 1990
874
1991
1' 374
1992
1993
Note: EDI=Electronic Document Interchange. Source: Dacom Corp.
1994
Fibre-optic • Drivers – Region geographically well-suited – Expanding communication traffic – Growth triangles
• Initiatives – – – –
APC ASEAN APCN Bi-lateral
Internet Thailand
526%
Malaysia
269%
India Region avg. Australia
160% 109% 80%
Source: Internet Society.
Internet host computers Annual growth 1993-94
Multichannel TV 400
` õ ¿ VSTAR-TV Vie
173
45 8 1991
1992
1993
Source: News Corp.
1996
Regulation • • • •
Role of government Competition Universal access Content
Role of state • Information vision • Regulatory convergence • Informatize its own functions
Competition Philippines Monthly subscription charges Pesos
Note: Source:
237
31 5 competitors
0 competitors (at that time)
Cellular
Wireline
Cellular is for 1994, includes 20 minutes of airtime. Wireline is for 1993, includes free local calls. Smart, PLDT.
Multimedia Universal Service • • • •
A broadband line? Internet access? Who? Tariffs?
Content • Content – Pornography, violence, politics, culture
• Intellectual property – Content poverty
Digital Babies “...the digital haves and havenots will be less concerned with race or wealth and more concerned with age. Developing nations will leapfrog the telecommunications infrastructures of the First World and become more wired. Consider Germany and Mexico. Less than half of all Germans are under 40; more than half of all Mexicans are under 20. Which of those nations will benefit first from ‘being digital’? ” — N. Negroponte, Director MIT Media Lab
Being digital Hongkong
100%
Malaysia
87%
Thailand
79%
Indonesia
77%
Japan
72%
Mexico
68%
Developed Germany
Source: ITU.
65% 37%
% digital telephone lines 1993
Digital babies Japan
17%
Germany
17%
USA
13%
China Mexico
7% 5%
India
4%
Indonesia
4%
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census.
% of population 65 years old and over, 2000 proj.