ITU TELECOM ASIA 2004 7 September 2004-Busan, Republic of Korea
Asia-Pacific Mobile Multimedia Outlook 2004 Michael Minges Senior Market Analyst Telecommunications Management Group, Inc.
Contents 1. Two lead the world…can the rest catch-up? 2. Why mobile multimedia? 3. Mobile networks 4. Text messaging leads the way 5. Mobile Internet drivers 1. High speed networks 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
GPRS CDMA2000 1X EDGE CDMA2000 1xEV-DO 5.1.5 WCDMA
2. Handsets 3. Pricing 4. Content
6. Measuring mobile Internet take-up 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
Mobile Internet subscribers Mobile Internet users High speed subscribers Mobile data revenue Mobile data traffic
7. Mobile multimedia index 8. Conclusions
• Covers developments in 13 key markets: – Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea (Rep.), Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand
• They make up 98% of all mobile cellular subscribers in region.
Two lead, can rest catch up? Japan
31.0%
Korea France Singapore
24.7% 11.4% 7.2%
Germany
6.1%
Sweden
5.3%
UK
5.0%
Norway
4.4%
Finland
3.8%
Spain
3.4%
Mobile Internet users as % of population, 2003
• Japan and the Republic of Korea lead the world in mobile Internet takeup • The report investigates the prospects for other economies in the region catching up
Motives for mobile multimedia 12
Mobile:Fixed Mobile:PC
Japan
10 8
Singapore
6 Taiwan
4 2
Korea
0 85
90
% of households with a mobile phone, 2003
95
China
Indo.
India
Phil.
Ratio of mobile phones to other ICT devices, 2003
Text messaging leads way •
• •
•
Though not a mobile multimedia service, text messaging (SMS) is relevant because so far, it’s the “killer” non-voice application, producing the vast majority of mobile data revenues in most of the countries. The region generated some 400 billion text messages in 2003 or an average of almost 70 per subscriber per month. Use varies widely ranging from 200 per subscriber per month in Singapore and Philippines to only five in Hong Kong and Thailand. Factors driving SMS in some countries—cost of text messaging compared to voice calls, ease of input and content development—also apply to other mobile multimedia applications.
Singapore
200 196
Philippines S. Korea Japan AP Indonesia China Malaysia India Australia N.Zealand Taiwan H. Kong Thailand
120 120 68 68 53 50 31 23 SMS per 18 subscriber per 8 month 5 2003 5
Factors impacting mobile multimedia take-up • High-speed network – The speed at which data can be transmitted over a mobile network impacts the type of applications available and consumer satisfaction.
• Handsets – Though obvious, the necessity of Internet-enabled mobile phones is often overlooked when gauging mobile Internet potential.
• Pricing – Prices must be reasonable to attract a critical mass of users.
• Content – Useful and easy to use applications are essential to attract customers to mobile data use.
Status of high speed networks High-speed mobile subscribers as % of total mobile subscribers 30% 25% Developed
20% ASIAPACIFC
15% 10%
Developing
5% 0% 2000
2001
2002
2003
S. Korea 22.9% India Japan 17.2% N.Zealand 13.5% AP 11.4% Taiwan 10.7% H. Kong 10.1% Singapore 10.1% 5.8% Thailand Malaysia 4.5% Australia 3.2% China 2.2% Philippines 1.7% Indonesia 0.5%
84.5%
High-speed subscribers by technology 55
40
13 11
8.3
4
5.1 0.1
1XRTT GPRS EV-DO
W- EDGE CDMA
Number of subscribers, June 2004
GPRS 1XRTT EDGE
4
3
W- EV-DO CDMA
Number of networks, June 2004
Handsets • Appropriate handset essential for highspeed use • Higher cost of Internetenabled handsets • Large used market in developing nations is barrier
Korea Japan Singapore AP H. Kong Australia Thailand Taiwan China India Malaysia Philippines N.Zealand Indonesia 0%
25% 50% 75% 100%
% of mobile subscribers with Internet-enabled handset, 2003
Pricing • With high-speed mobile, introduction of volumebased pricing • Consumers prefer flat rate • Now shifting to unlimited usage tariff in some markets • In some cases, competitive with fixed broadband
au Telstra SKT VodNZ Three AIS Smart Maxis SingTel
$16.20 $10.48 $9.72 $6.50 $6.41 Mobile data $4.79 pricing, 1MB $4.44 data, US$, $3.95 2004 $3.09
Timebased Monthly- 16% fee Volumebased based 51% 33%
Preference for mobile Internet pricing, Taiwan, 2004
Content i-mode around the world i-mode subscribers, December 2003
Country
Operator
Launch
000s
% total subs.
Germany
E-PLUS
Mar-02
440
5.4%
Netherlands
KPN
Apr-02
403
7.7%
Taiwan
FET (LGT)
Jun-02
100
1.3%
Belgium
BASE
Oct-02
25
2.0%
France
Bouygues
Nov-02
500
7.7%
Spain
Telefónica
Jun-03
170
0.9%
Italy
Wind
Nov-03
Greece
Cosmote
Jun-04
Australia
Telstra
late 04
Total Japan
DoCoMo
Feb-99
1'638
3.4%
40’335
88.9%
Measuring mobile multimedia 93% from SMS! 49.5% 35.7%
Japan S.Korea Singapore Australia Malaysia N.Zealand H.Kong Taiwan Thailand
Japan
17.3% 16.3% 16.3% 13.0% 72% non 12.3% SMS! 12.0% 10.6% 7.1% 4.9% Mobile data 3.7% revenue as % of 3.3% total mobile 3.3% revenue, 2003 2.7%
Indonesia
Mobile Internet users as % of mobile subscribers, 2003
Philippines
1.3% Indonesia 1.0% China 0.7% India 0.4%
35.6%
Singapore
8.6% 2.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.7%
Philippines
AP Malaysia S.Korea Australia China H.Kong N.Zealand
1% without Japan and S. Korea!
Taiwan India Thailand
Mobile Multimedia Index
Thailand
China
Taiwan
India
Hong Kong
Indonesia
New Zealand
Australia
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Korea (Rep.)
Japan
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
Indicators: 1. SMS per subscriber per month; 2. Mobile data revenue as % of total mobile revenue; 3. Mobile Internet users as % of total mobile subscribers; and 4. High-speed mobile subscribers as % of total mobile subscribers
Mobile Multimedia Outlook for different economies POSITIVE • Already there – Japan, South Korea
• Ready for lift-off – Singapore
• Possible contenders – Thailand, Malaysia
• An outside chance – India
LESS POSITIVE • Puzzles – Taiwan, Hong Kong
• Fragmented markets – Australia, New Zealand
• Too many obstacles – China, Indonesia, Philippines
Statistical appendix 1. Mobile cellular subscribers, Asia-Pacific region, 2003 2. Top 20 Asia Pacific mobile operators ranked by 2003 subscribers 3. Population 4. Internet users 5. Mobile cellular subscribers 6. Prepaid mobile subscribers 7. High-speed mobile subscribers 8. Outgoing mobile traffic 9. Text messages 10. Mobile employees 11. Mobile revenues 12. Mobile data revenue 13. Mobile capital expenditure
More information • 47 pages, 23 figures, 7 tables, 3 boxes • Published September 2004 (today officially) • Ordering information: http://www.tmgtelecom.com/reports • Questions: reports@tmgtelecom.com