Southern Hemisphere Forest Industry Journal Vol 18 No 2

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Southern Hemisphere forest industry journal Vol 18 No2 - Spring 2012

ISSN 1173-5899

A threatened species - the Tasmanian forest industry

stewardship report Investors: Brazil’s pull strong for Strategic

STEWARDSHIP REPORT 20 08- 09

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headline h e a d l i n e

2008- 09

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Consultant: From weed to Manuka plantations Projections: Experience to the fore in Aus timber Feature: Here’s what happened (in Russia)

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November 2012 A SouthemTM Publication

Southern Hemisphere Forest Industry Journal Vol. 18 No. 2 1


Contents 3

Southern Hemisphere Forest Industry Journal Volume 18 Number 2 A Southem View As Uncle Ivan woud say: It’s all about the people

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Southem News NZ pushes eject button on Kyoto Protocol NZ deforestation rate to rise? Carbon credit cash boost for Western Australia New John Deere plants in Brazil, China up costs Quebec-Chile wood housing construction workshops Latin America losing forest area the size of a small country The Campbell Group completes purchase of South Australia forestry assets South African forestry workers seen as ‘lost in globalisation’ CMPC amnong Chilean firms creating most valuer Masisa places bonds NZ forest industry matching Australia’s mood Sappi firms up plans for mothballing Tugela PM Scientist receives award Chile exec headings Finning international arm Green ex-leaders move into markets protest group Paraguay moves on Argentina border controls Finland and Sweden help Corrientes in bioenergy boost Auditor reviews Western Australia native forest products sales

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Southem Investment Kir Harris - Brazil’s pull strong for Strategic forestry investors

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Southem Consultants Barry Poole: Manuka flower front and centre as new honey gold rush turns scrub to valued plantation crop Bernie Neufeld: Experience to the fore as Bernie Neufeld projects Australian timber market

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Southem Features A threatened species - the Tasmanian forest industry ‘Вот что получилось’ or Here’s what happened (Tatiana Konakova, Translation Nadezhda Tarasova)

Cover photos: Modern forestry practices (Courtesy Forestry Tasmania). How the industry began (courtesy Tasmanian Forest Contractors Association) © The Southern Hemisphere Forest Industry Journal is published by Trade and Media Services Ltd. High Street, Rotorua 3201, New Zealand; PO Box 6215, Whakarewarewa, Rotorua, New Zealand Tel: 64-7-349 4107; Email: info@southem.com; www.southem.com Editor and Director: Michael R. Smith

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A Southem View

As Uncle Ivan would say: It’s all about the people

By Mike Smith Editor and Director arties to an agreement designed to end a decades-long dispute over forestry resources in the Australian state of Tasmania are to be commended for their efforts. It’s not easy compromising when so much is at stake. For the forest industry, a future well-being of a sector already on the ropes through a combination of resource restrictions and economic impacts. The weight of these circumstances in reflected in a feature article in this edition of the Southern Hemisphere Forest Industry Journal. Conservationists have argued that what is at stake is old, pristine forest and this is just as valuable as any added-value products the industry might manufacture. Howe ve r, it is hard to argu e sust ainabi lit y w hen p e ople’s liveli ho o ds and com mu nities are at risk. As an island state, Tasmania faces extra difficulties in rebuilding its economic base, so managing the future of the forest industry is imperative to its well-being. I have personal experience of the complexity of such issues: In the late 1970s, I reported on conservationists efforts to halt the logging and sawmilling of trees native rimu forests in Pureroa Forest, in New Zealand’s Kind Country region. The nearby town of Bennydale depended heavily on this activity. To mitigate the impact, conservationists mapped out a future which would see tourists come from around the world to visit these beautiful forests. Uncle Ivan, who ran a firewood business in Tokoroa, suggested to me that rather than just highlighting the policy issues involved, I should also remember that people’s futures were at stake. Once logging was cancelled, the tourists didn’t come as nothing special was put in place to ensure the community’s continued viability. Bennydale became a ghost of its former self. So it is of some comfort to note that the Tasmanian Government and the Australian Federal Government have pledged to provide A$276 million to assist those affected by the forest down turn, create jobs and build new industries in the regional communities most affected. As with most government-based pledges, there is no harm in being sceptical but the Forest Industries Association of Tasmania is to be congratulated in sealing the agreement. FIAT chief executive Terry Edwards is reported as saying his group signed the deal because it was ‘time for the war to end’. Under the agreement, he says, half a million hectares of forest will be protected from logging, with 395,000 hectares to be reserved immediately and the balance in March 2015. The downsizing of the industry will include cutting the legislated quota of sawlogs to 137,000 cubic metres. In her announcement, Tasmania’s Premier Lara Giddings says: ‘We need to be able to put the conflict behind us so we can get on with the work of creating jobs and building and economic future for this State.” A great sentiment but this is only the start as outlined in our article on Page 14. We also have a feature article contributed from Moscow, Russia – about as far away from sunny southern hemisphere as you can get. An interesting counterpoint to events in Tasmania, the article has been included as an example of how some countries resolve their differences over the management of forestry resources. Tasmania is a lucky state in a lucky country.

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NEW FEATURES In this edition of the Journal we introduce two new features: One being profiles of investors; the other being profiles of consultants. The focus in ‘Southem Investment’ is on Kir Harris from Strategic Timber Inc, the United States company with an interest in southern hemisphere forestry developments, particularly those in Brazil. The profile in ‘Southem Consultant’s Corner’ is on Barry Poole, a long-time forestry consultant who is now helping transform the once derided manuka tree into a valuable plantation crop for the provision of health-giving honey products. As well, Bernie Neufeld, from BIS Shrapnel, discusses how he came to projections on the Australian sawn timber sector in ‘Southem Projections’. November 2012

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Southem News

NZ pushes eject button on Kyoto Protocol

The New Zealand Government has opted out of signing up to the second Kyoto Protocol commitment period from 2013, announcing instead it will take its pledge to reduce greenhouse gas emissions under the parallel ‘United Nation Convention Framework’. Stuff reports, however, protocol targets are legally binding, and the convention ones are not. Climate Change Minister Tim Groser said New Zealand stood 100 per cent behind its existing commitment.

Carbon credit cash boost for WA The Conservation Council of Western Australia says the southwest could reap the benefits of carbon sequestration which is set to begin next year, the ABC has reported. The Commonwealth last week announced Australia would sign up to the second phase of the Kyoto Protocol. The decision means Australia will be able to trade in carbon credits generated by protecting forests that would otherwise be logged.

Quebec-Chile wood housing construction workshops

The Technology and Wood Industries Unit of Chile’s Forestry Institute (INFOR) and the Quebec specialty carpentry and construction school (EMOICQ) have run during November five workshops in Chile aimed at showing housing construction techniques with wood structure used in Canada.

NZ deforestation rate to rise?

New Zealand’s abandonment of the Kyoto Protocol is likely to increase deforestation, says Murray McClintock, managing director of Nelson-based Carbon Farm Ltd, one of the country's largest carbon specialists. He has been quoted in a stuff.co.nz article as saying there are a lot of disgruntled people who applied for carbon credits under the ETS for their existing forests or planted new ones, only to see their carbon value fall by 90 per cent in 18 months. Under ETS rules to discourage deforestation, owners of pre-1990 forest blocks could either apply for a one-off allocation of carbon credits or, if they owned less than 50 hectares, they could seek an exemption from their deforestation liabilities. Mr McClintock says the ETS credits are now in danger of becoming next to worthless unless the Government follows other countries by capping the importation of cheap foreign credits, many from dubious sources such as Russia and Ukraine. He is already seeing evidence of planting programmes being canned and harvested blocks not being replanted as their owners looked to convert the land to dairying and other higher-returning land uses. Nurseries have ploughed under trees as a result of cancelled orders. Some estimates put the current rate of deforestation at 16,000ha a year, he says, which is likely to increase. About 170,000ha of forest on land owned by central North Island Naori iwi groups was ripe for conversion now there was little incentive to replant.

New John Deere plants in Brazil, China up costs Costs from new factories in Brazil and China are expected to impact short-term results, John Deere & Company has said in its Q3 2012 report. Construction and forestry net sales were up 23% in the quarter, operating profit was a US$113 million, for the quarter CNS had a 7% operating margin, the largest sector underlying CNS margins is investments and growth. Susan Karlix - manager, investor communications, said during a presentation that the division has two new factories growing up in Brazil and one in China adding additional research and development cost and selling and administrative and general expense.

LatAm losing forest area the size of a small country Latin America lost forest the size of a small country in the period from 2001 to 2010. A new study finds 260,000 square kilometres of forest was lost during the period. The new study is the first to assess both net forest loss and regrowth across the Caribbean, Central and South America, Mongamay.com reported. Rhett A. Butler wrote that the study, published in the journal Biotropica by researchers from the University of Puerto Rico and other institutions, analyzes change in vegetation cover across several biomes, and finds largest gains in woody vegetation area occurred in desert vegetation and shrublands. NOTE: The land area of Uruguay is 173,620 .

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Southem News

Campbell Group completes purchase of South Australia state forest assets

CMPC among Chilean firms creating most value

A consortium headed by The Campbell Group LLC (TCG) has completed the purchase of over 250,000 acres of forestry assets in the Green Triangle plantations of Southern Australia. TCG’s President and CEO, John Gilleland, said the forestry assets of the South East of the State were among the highest quality softwood plantations in Australia. The assets were previously owned and managed by the government of South Australia. Under the agreement, TCG will oversee the forests for the next three forward rotations, approximately 105 years. ForestrySA will continue to manage the forest. The government of South Australia selected TCG following a competitive bidding process. “The Campbell Group has sought quality timberland assets in this part of the world for some time. We are pleased to have completed the Green Triangle transaction to acquire the forward rotations, which we consider to be the preeminent softwood resource in Australia,” said John Gilleland, President and CEO. TCG will open a local office in South Australia. The company has an emphasis on working closely with and investing in the communities where TCG does business.

Antofagasta PLC, CAP, Empresas CMPC and SQM are the four Chilean companies are among the 10 companies worldwide, and in their respective sectors, creating more value for its shareholders between 2007 and 2011. This, according to the study "Improving the Odds: Strategies for Superior Value Creation", the 14th edition of the annual Value Creators series of The Boston Consulting Group (BCG).

South African forestry workers seen as ‘lost in globalisation’ Exploitation and pay in the timber industry is the most extreme amongst any commercial sector in South Africa, a writer for The South African Civil Society Information Services has claimed. “While mining and agriculture workers have been in the news for protesting against exploitation in their respective industries, no such action has been evident amongst forestry workers,” Glenn Ashton wrote recently. Working in the timber industry is the equivalent of running a marathon every day. Workers experience some of the highest rates of work related injuries, along with the lowest pay. There was a huge post democracy dividend for South African companies as they re-entered the world of international commerce and capital. Amongst these were two major timber companies, Sappi and Mondi. These companies have since grown to assume a place among some of the largest timber, paper and pulp companies in the world. “Like many other South African companies they took full advantage of our political transition to ride the growing wave of globalisation.” Forestry researcher Jeanette Clarke has shown how increased globalisation of the timber industry “has led to the adoption of the worst aspects of international labour practice, in particular the use of contractors and casualisation of the workforce. Consequently workers in this sector remain profoundly exploited.”

November 2012

Masisa places bonds Chile-based board-maker Masisa has placed on the market two sets of bonds for a total of 2,000,000 UF in an operation considered successful by the company and consultants agents BCI Asesores Financieros S.A and Scotiabank Chile. According to the company, this operation recorded a 100% on the placed amount increases. (Note: Unidad de Fomento (UF) is a Unit of account that is used in Chile making the value about US$9.4 million.)

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Southem News

NZ forest industry matching Australia’s mood

Chile exec heads Finning international arm

The mood of the forest industry in New Zealand was found to be similar to that in Australia, reported the Institute of Foresters of Australia president Rob de Fegely, who attended the annual conference of NZ Institute of Forestry. “The New Zealand forest industry has a real conundrum where the high-pruned, low stocking clearwood regimes developed in the 1970s and 1980s are no longer economic, and fast-growing Radiata pine struggles to produce good structural grade sawn timber,” he said in an article in the IFA newsletter. ‘Clearwood’ silviculture was based on growing the highest quality log in the shortest possible time for the ‘appearance’ market and changing back to a regime to produce structural timber, while possible, was not simple. He noted speakers suggested that returning to the highly competitive commodity market for structural sawntimber may not be in New Zealand’s best interests. Solutions included improving communication along the supply chain so that growers and end users understood what each other needs, and working out how to use New Zealand grown structural timber in new engineered wood products and construction techniques.

Green ex-leaders move into markets protest group

Sappi firms up plans for mothballing PM South African newsprint-maker Sappi has issued over 400 of its staff members with Section 189 notices regarding its decision to mothball the PM4 paper machine at its KwaZulu-Natal-based Tugela mill, from January 1, 2013. Although expected to be substantially lower, Sappi was reported as saying that the eventual number of positions impacted by the suspension would be known at the conclusion of the 60-day consultation period. Sappi says it remains committed to its approach that retrenchments are a last resort, and as such, will work with staff to investigate options to minimise retrenchments,. PM4 was manufacturing lightweight containerboard products; however, the current cost structure and market conditions did not allow it to operate profitably. Sappi said the Tugela mill had not delivered satisfactory financial returns in recent years, despite ongoing corrective actions and interventions to address increased energy, labour and raw materials costs.

Scientist receives award The Institute of Foresters of Australia’s top award – the Norman W. Jolly medal – has gone to forestry scientist, Dr Sadanandan Nambiar of CSIRO. IFA National President Rob de Fegely highlighted his multidisciplinary approach to science in support of sustainability, saying this had had a profound impact upon efficient, science-based plantation management in Australia and overseas.

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Juan Carlos Villegas was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of Finning International Inc. effective June 2012. As the Chief Operating Officer, Mr. Villegas has responsibility for increasing efficiencies and profitability while maintaining Finning’s safety leadership across Finning’s operations worldwide. His previous role was President of Finning South America, with overall responsibility for Finning’s operations in Chile, Argentina, Bolivia and Uruguay.

Two former Greens leaders have joined the ranks of the Australian environmental group Markets for Change, the ABC reports. Former Australian Greens leader Bob Brown is now on the board and ex-state leader Peg Putt is its chief executive. Ms Putt says a major fundraising push is imminent, foreshadowing an increase in campaigning. Markets for Change describes itself as a new, market-focused environmental non-government organisation founded in 2010. Ms Putt does not think her or Mr Brown's involvement will affect Tasmania's Labor-Green Government, which has come under pressure after protest action against Ta Ann Tasmania.

November 2012


Southem News Paraguay moves on Argentina border controls

Paraguay exporters have been alarmed at Argentina’s move to tighten up border controls. The Paraguayan Chamber of Exporters (CAPEX) says it will analyse the situation and the legal actions that can be taken at the international level against the measure implemented by Customs Argentina to retain and monitor all containers arriving at its ports. The situation also affects local industries because the verification process will also retard the import of raw materials, said Ramón Jiménez Gaona, from the guild.

Alto Paraná boosts forestry understanding

More than 1,000 children participated in this year's educational project run by Argentine firm, Alto Paraná. Under the slogan "Education for a Sustainable Future", the forestry company launched the educational programme activities in 2012 with the participation of 10 schools that are located near the company. The project activities achieved educational support and teaching suggestions for teachers on issues related to natural reserves, forests, planted forests and benefits, sustainability of resources, among other things, said the company.

November 2012

Finland and Sweden help Corrientes in bioenergy boost The Argentine province of Corrientes is forming close ties with Finland and Sweden to advance bioenergy. The province aims to strengthen multilateral agreements establishing forest industry in training and exchanging knowledge on biomass production. The intention is to generate bioenergy for industrial parks and cities. The first technical mission to Finland and Sweden investment delegation comprised of the Secretary of Industry and Investment Promotion, Juan Pablo Gómez de la Fuente, the Parks Director, Industrial Areas and Bioenergy, Cayman Francisco Torres, the president Forestry Association of Argentina, Jorge Barros, the president of the Chamber of Commerce Saladas, Juan Ramon Sotelo, the IFC representative, Julian Salimbeni and forestry-industrial entrepreneurs of the province, according to the newspaper El Litoral. Meanwhile, these countries are considered worldwide as the major powers in the forest industry. Gomez de la Fuente said that “we had contact with 26 institutions, including those linked to academia and the business. We also held meetings with the governments of the two countries, all intended to meet the comprehensive management of wood, the latest technologies and trying to promote the exchange and ensure the required channels to get this done in the province. at in place. “

Auditor reviews WA native forest products sales The West Australian state Auditor General is reviewing the sale of products from native forests by the Forest Products Commission (FPC), a government statement says. WA has about 2.46 million hectares of native forest. Each year around 0.46 per cent (11,316 hectares) of this area is made available for harvesting as set out in the Forest Management Plan 2004-2013 (FMP). Consistent with the FMP, the Department of Environment and Conservation (DEC) develops harvesting plans containing detailed maps showing where harvesting is permitted, or excluded. The FPC has a broad range of roles under the Forest Products Act 2000. Its core functions include managing the harvesting, regrowing and sale of native forest products according to the FMP. WA Auditor General’s lines of inquiry include: • Does DEC have a robust system, that includes appropriate controls, for estimating native timer volumes for use in its three-year harvest planning processes? • Does FPC have controls in place to reduce the risk of not meeting its native forest products supply commitments? • Are FPC’s processes for selling native forest products consistent with state government and FPC policy?

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Southem Investment

Brazil’s pull strong for Strategic forestry investors

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n spite of the lure of even more exotic forestry countries, Brazil keeps on pulling in the investment managers at Strategic Timber, Inc.

Kir Harris, who is responsible for fund management, administration and reporting at the US company, gave a profile interview to the Journal regarding his work and that of Strategic Timber (or STI). He outlined how those involved with STI have adapted to what would seem to be the constantly changing nature of the markets around financing and investing in forestry, with a special focus on the southern hemisphere. During the past 20-30 years, some markets have come and gone, others have reached maturity and others have emerged as potential investments. However, Brazil has retained its place at the top of the list of southern hemisphere countries in spite of the challenges involved in investing there.

Kir Harris

By way of background, the principals of the company started investing in forestry in the early 1980s through the company, Resource Investments, at a time when timberland was a relatively unexplored asset class. In the early- to mid-1990s, they were among the first to recognise the domestic US market for timber was starting to get hot as the number of new entrants grew, resulting in diminished returns. As a result, they took their search for investment opportunities offshore, starting with the more traditional countries of Australia and New Zealand, then Chile. The RI investments were subsequently sold to the Swiss bank, USB, and three years later the management pulled themselves out and started STI. “The concept there was that rather than stick with the traditional asset management model, the guys thought to put together a number of timberland investments, firstly in the US but also with an eye towards the international market, and ultimately wrap those up into an IPO,” Kir says. Timing is everything in life as in investing, and so it turned out to be the case as timberland IPOs met the force of the dotcom boom of the late 1990s. The more conservative returns on offer from timberland investments were less attractive than those available from the then flaming hot market around technology stocks.f course, this all ended on 10 March 2000, when the dotcom bubble burst, but in the interim STI had sold the forestry assets in a traditional manner rather than bringing them to the market as an IPO. During the process, however, they had been looking at investments offshore and, in particular, Brazil. When a planned IPO for a Brazilian outfit did not eventuate, STI’s current president Tom Broom told the Brazilians the company could connect them with what were effectively its competitors in what was the newly emerging sector involving timber investment management organisations (or TIMOs). As it turned out, that has been the model for the past 10 years, with Kir Harris joining the company six years ago and has spent the last two years down in Brazil working out of the STI office based in Curitiba (see http:// www.curitiba.pr.gov.br/idioma/ingles). Concerns over changing foreign land ownership laws have, however, taken the wind out of the sales of a lot

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Southem Investment of the movement towards international investing in Brazil, he says. “We’ve continued to operate in this market; there are still TIMOs investing down there at this point and a few institutional investors making direct investments as well. But we really see this market in Brazil as having turned into a buyer’s market due to the lack of capital flowing into the country at this point.” Nevertheless, while STI does recognise the limitations of making investments in Brazil, it has a number of structures it is comfortable with there. This has led it to move away from its previous merger and acquisition scenarios (M&A - http://www.investopedia.com/ terms/m/mergersandacquisitions.asp) tools to focus back on institutional money on its own account, so it looks at investments in its own right.

Brazil forestry regions 1, 2 & 3 from south.

On the face of it, it would appear the Brazilian market is “mature” if not too challenging but Kir stressed STI did not see the country in broad brush terms. Instead, he highlighted the three distinct regions of timberland in Brazil: The southern region, which is really the most developed, where the forest past was built up in the 1970s and early 1980s based mostly on government incentives. The region has flourished, first as a plantation base, which later attracted a number of processing and industrial wood users. The region is seen as more mature. Further north, the centre region, including the states of Sao Paulo, Minas, Monto Grosso and similar locations, is seen as more of a developing region. Here the plantations generally involve eucalypts, which in turn are used for a one-industry market. Although the plantation base has expanded rapidly, there has been a lack of very deep or wide investment in forest product markets in the region. Further north again, interest is growing in greenfields developments in those regions. However, the greenfields opportunities do come with a risk of having to plant and grow trees in a region that hasn’t experienced large-scale plantation forestry, lacks a forest products market, and the necessary transportation infrastructure. STI prides itself on being a keen observer of timberland trends not only in Latin America but also around the world. “We recently spent quite a time internally here just sort of running through the timberland world in terms of: where do we see the opportunities, risks etcetera?” Kir says. STI takes what he describes as a fundamental biological approach, reviewing where forest and investment managers can achieve the fastest growth rates with minimal physical risks to the trees and, almost equally as important: where is there an existing base and what is the potential to increase that base? “As much as we keep looking around, we keep on finding ourselves brought back to Brazil specifically for those reasons – some of the world’s highest growth rates and some of the world’s largest current plantation bases and certainly a very large base of potential expansion opportunities as well.”

SUBSCRIBERS: READ THE TRANSCRIPT OF THIS INTERVIEW Free for subscribers or available for puchase.

November 2012

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Southem Consultant’s Corner

Manuka flower front and centre as new honey gold rush turns scrub to valued plantation crop

Barry Poole has taken an interest in a wider range of species and turned into a career fostering diversity in forests in New Zealand and overseas. About 40 years into his career, Barry describes himself as a forester who is as interested in wise land use as in forestry. He came away from Massey University and Canterbury University – one a farming-centric campus and the other home to the NZ School of Forestry – with a not only a lot of interest in the management side of forestry but also with a broader interest around species and species diversity. “Although the jargon wasn’t there then, the interest was to do things other than Radiata pine day in and day out.” The discussion around wise land use and forestry was given more meaning when he met some farmers a few years ago who were looking at land from a farming perspective in terms of stock per hectare. “I found common ground with them in that they said they would consider forestry on their farmland if I could prove to them they could make more money, and perhaps gain in an environmental sense, by managing a crop that would produce more than about six stock units per hectare.” Barry found this interesting concept of communicating in terms of stock units per hectare as a way of overcoming farmers’ preconceived ideas of what was good for their land. More recently, this has led him into working with manuka (Leptospermum scoparium), which he recognises may provoke some wry smiles from foresters who have been involved in land development and the removal of manuka to make way either for pine trees or eucalypts. While these species, particularly pine, are now the mainstay of the forestry sector in New Zealand after nearly 80 years of planting, manuka’s growing popularity in recent years could be seen as something of a sweet revenge for the once derided tree. Nectar from manuka flowers produce a honey so prized that it is turning into gold for suppliers. The newly found value of manuka has come from the long-held knowledge that honey contains anti-bacterial properties. Nothing new there but the magic in manuka honey was confirmed in 1981 when a Waikato University scientist confirmed some strains of New Zealand manuka bush honey contain “an extraordinarily, naturally present, very stable and powerful non-peroxide antibacterial activity not found in any other variety of honey”. (Source: wwwumf.org.nz) Manuka is a species very much noted in New Zealand as a pioneer and often seen as species that reverts. In the past it has been regularly taken off land to be replaced by grass. But it’s also a species that is in Australia and is closely allied with other species, like kanuka (Kunzea ericoides), a very similar looking species but with

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Southem Consultant’s Corner different properties. The difference in properties can get down to things like the bioassaying for Methylglyoxal (MGO), which is the acid used to test for this unique manuka factor that people are chasing for anti-bacterial reasons. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methylglyoxal) Barry is particularly working with one of the leading firms involved in manuka speciality honey, Comvita, a publicly listed firm based in the Bay of Plenty, in the north Island of New Zealand. “Some of the work being done by Comvita and other companies has shown that provided you can get involved with cultivars or provenances of manuka that produce high UMF honey then you have another viable land use. All honeys have an anti-bacterial factor to them but it is based on the hydrogen peroxide whereas this unique manuka factor is essentially a different process to the hydrogen peroxide action.” Barry has been working with Comvita on manuka for a couple of years, and he describes the projects as gathering momentum. While this work is underway, the supply chain for product continues to be quite constrained and demand for UMF is growing rapidly. He says they probably have another three or four years because a reasonable number of answers are gathered around questions regarding genetic improvement and the establishment of manuka as a crop. Although it is easy to imagine manuka could be grown haphazardly, without the depth of analysis often applied to traditional plantation species, it cannot just be grown weed-like anywhere in any conditions. People will have this concept of manuka because you see it coming back naturally in valleys and what have you that it is a rapacious weed; that you just put it in a nursery, container and grow it out. But it can be quite drought prone if you don’t look after it.” The old forester in Barry has had to get his head around that he is chasing something different as an end product. “I’m now growing a plant to maximise floral density on it rather than trying to maximise fibre. So the spacing becomes important in terms of trying to build a crown on the plant that affords a fair bit of sunlight down low and allows flowers to grow over the whole crown and not just at the top of it.” “We are still learning about spacing and fundamentals like that but it is looking very similar to eucalypts where something about 1,000 trees per hectare seems to be right for various situations,” Barry says. In the meantime, Barry and wife live in Tauranga, in the Bay of Plenty; living at Omokoroa on edge of the Tauranga harbour, where he grows avocadoes. He and Jan struggle on with growing 5,000 cymbidium orchids, not very profitably but with a lot of pleasure. Barry, who has recently turned 65, says he doesn’t have any intention of taking up golf.

SUBSCRIBERS: READ THE TRANSCRIPT OF THIS INTERVIEW Free for subscribers or available for puchase.

November 2012

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Southem Projections

Experience to the fore as Bernie Neufeld projects Australian timber market

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t’s a brave forecaster who projects 15 years into the future in the current fractured economic climate but Bernie Neufeld has used many years of experiencing in making such an attempt regarding the Australian sawn timber sector.

A key conclusion Bernie Neufeld has reached is that production capacity in Australia must rise if the sawn timber industry is to take advantage of predicted increased domestic demand over the next 15 years. Bernie, a senior manager at BIS Shrapnel, a private research company, made his comments as part of a release of the firm’s report in the state of the country’s sawn timber (lumber milling) industry. The report looks at projections regarding the sector over a 15-year period from 2012 to 2026 and discussed the “temporary threat” from imports currently being experienced by the Australian sawn timber industry. The threat is seen as coming from imports as a result of a strong dollar and global surplus of timber following the global financial crisis (GFC). The conclusions reflected the level of sawn timber imports rising by 30 per cent Bernie Neufeld in the two years to 2011. The increase in the level of imports is seen as going against the trend of previous years when imports have been well below the historical levels of 20 years ago. In spite of the challenges of the current worldwide economics, Bernie says the report has been published since the 1980s, so he has some form in this regard. Still projecting out a decade-and-a-half must be quite testing. Interviewed by the Journal, Bernie says the 15-year period of the projections is a reasonable time. The first five years of the period were looked at in terms of the cyclical aspects affecting the industry, such as the housebuilding cycle. This was then put into the longer-term context. The drivers of lumber production tended to be universal and were influenced mostly by the supply of housing. In Australia, that had historically meant a large proportion of lumber was drawn from imported supplies, and this had tended to decline so that they were at an historical low just before the GFC. While the rest of the world went into a downward economic spiral, the Australian dollar increased in value due largely to the strength of the mining industry’s sales to China. Meanwhile, in North America, demand for lumber dropped as house building was significantly lower, which resulted in North American suppliers looking to export markets. The increase in imports over the period from the start of the GFC had been as much as 30 per cent, Bernie says. The increase had put a lot of pressure on domestic supplies and domestic prices for lumber products. Some indicative domestic prices include: MGP 10 pine lumber being currently at around A$450 per cubic metre. Although this was not significantly lower than historical levels, and was higher than historical levels, there had been “a little bit of pressure” on prices due to imports. The pressure of imports is expected to ease in 2014 and 2015, when house building enters an upturn phase. “So there will be strong demand for timber from local producers but we expect the international aspect will increase at the same time. We’ve started to see the beginnings of a housing upturn in the US and I would expect that to continue over the next two or three years.” As a result, around 2014 and 2015, the global supply of lumber would start to tighten as the same time as Australia’s domestic supply.

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Southem Projections “So it looks pretty good for the industry in that time frame,” Bernie says. The Journal noted pluses and minuses had to be built into any projects, so what kind of strengths, for example, did he see in Australia? “The fundamental strength in Australia is housing. It’s been in bit of a downturn now but in the long-term we expect it to strengthen considerably from current levels, especially over the next 15-year period. That is why we put it into a long-term period, because demand for timber increases over the long-term.” One of the aspects that often confuses observers of the Australian economy is that it one of two parts – being mining and the rest, the Journal suggested. “Yes that’s right,” says Bernie. “The mining sector has been very strong in Australia. We see that other sectors of the economy, particularly the manufacturing sector, have suffered, partly as a result of the strength of the mining sector and in particular the upward pressure that has put on the Australian dollar. For the timber industry, this has put pressure on prices and on exporters as well, as with most other manufacturing sectors in Australia. I do see that as a temporary situation in that the dollar is likely to ease off in 2014 and 2015, and that will take a lot of pressure off the non-mining industries.” Suggestions that the mining sector’s rapid growth is about to stall – with news of 1,800 layoffs recently – raised questions over the impact this might have on other sectors of the economy. “There were a lot of mining projects in place and those projects that are currently in place will produce over a long period of time. But if there is a significant downturn in the sector, for example, from a major decline in the Chinese economy that could potentially have a negative impact on the housing market here.” The multiplier effect of increases in the mining sector had had across the economy had helped demand generally in the past, allowing people to buy houses. However, it has also had an impact on house prices, which is one of the key factors preventing people from buying new houses. “Houses prices are fairly high and it is difficult for new house buyers to get into the market, so that has a negative impact on demand as opposed to the higher level of money in the economy as a result of the mining sector.” Bernie agrees the softwood (pine) sawn timber manufacturing sector in Australia had been ‘treading water’ over the past few years. “It is partly due to the problem you have with the weak housing market and the pressure on prices from imports and fairly high log stumpage prices for logs.” He notes there has actually been considerable change in the past few years with a lot of consolidation in the industry. “There is considerable change in the industry and I would expect that to continue over the next few years as the industry adjusts to the current situation, but there is a little pressure on the industry at this particular time.” Mention of log prices raised a question of control of resources and pricing, as forest ownership goes through changes in Australia, with many publicly owned plantation forest assets shifting into private sector management and control. So could the sales that have gone through or are proposed impact on log availability and prices in the future? “Well it could. I suppose one of the concerns from the manufacturing industry viewpoint is that if the resource is in private ownership, which they increasingly are with most of the government-owned plantations being in the process or have been sold, then the (new) owners of that resource obviously will seek the highest return for the logs and if they can sell them at a higher price to China or some other market, then they are likely to do that. That could certainly have an impact on the operations of the domestic industry, which could result in higher log prices or could result in lower prices, depending on what the market does.”

SUBSCRIBERS: READ THE TRANSCRIPT OF THIS INTERVIEW Free for subscribers or available for puchase.

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Southem Feature

A threatened species - the Tasmanian forest industry

T

he plight of two giants of the forestry sector in Tasmania has darkened the future prospects of one of Australia’s previously bright forest industry prospects.

On the one hand, the state-owned Forestry Tasmania is facing the prospect of being split up in an attempt to separate out commercial and non-commercial operations. On the other hand, timber giant Gunns Ltd has been placed into the hands of receivers and managers. While the two events can be said to be separate, the disturbing factor for the forest industry is that much of the problem for both entities revolves around the politics of forestry in Tasmania as much as economic hardship. Tasmania is an island state of Australia and is located about 240 kilometres to the south of the mainland state of Victoria. The state, including the island of Tasmania and some 300-plus smaller islands, is home to more than 500,000 people.

David Pollard

The state is regarded in forestry terms as being closely related to the temperate climate regions of counterparts in, particularly, New Zealand as well as the likes of Chile. However, it has also become a by-word for green politics and direct action in opposition to the management of native forests. David Pollard, CEO of the Australian Forest Products Association, highlighted a number of factors he says have influenced the decline of the once strong forestry and forest industry sectors in Tasmania. Tasmania has, he says, a very decrepit economy, as illustrated by the level of unemployment at 8 per cent, higher than another state in Australia. Unemployment nationally stood at 5.4 per cent in September 2012, even thougt this was up 6.2 per cent on the previous month. The industries Tasmania has relied on in the past, including forestry, have been in decline for a long time. Much of this decline has been around changes to government structures nationally (federal politics) and/or locally (state politics). However, external factors have also pushed these industries to the edge: Transport costs are high as most wood products – be it raw logs or manufactured products – have to be “exported” either to mainland Australia or to international markets. On the other hand “imports” such as the “rigid and inflexible” labour system have added further costs to the industry, with what Pollard says are “unreasonably high wage levels”. “These costs from outside the system impact on the cost structures of the forestry industry, which has to be a price-taker given that globally it has to operate in an internationally competitive market.” An additional factor is, like everywhere else in Australia, the forest industry in Tasmania is made up of two parts: Native (or natural) forestry and plantation forestry. The plantations built up over many years need to find an outlet for their product, leading to the proposal for 14 Southern Hemisphere Forest Industry Journal Vol. 18 No. 2

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Southem Feature

the construction of a pulp mill to take the bulk of wood produced by the Tasmanian plantations. “There was nowhere else for this plantation product to go, at least as far as anybody could see.” Gunns had taken about three years to get anywhere near starting the construction of its planned pulp mill having gone through the two layers of approvals required under Australia’s federal and state system of government. Along the way, Gunns decided to exit the native forest industry due to a number of reasons but largely as a result of pressure applied by environmental groups, which did not favour the harvesting of native forests. Having made that decision and now entirely on planted forests, Gunns still had to get the pulp mill built. However, the company had “enormous difficulty” in finding a co-financier for the project. Although a number of partners put up their hands, they dropped out for various reasons. As time drew on, and Gunns continued to sell other assets, the prospects for the pulp mill being built started to recede. “As a consequence of Gunns’ exit from native forestry, the industry there has approximately halved and there’s no pulp mill. So there’s nowhere to take the product from the other half of the industry, which planted forests,” says Pollard, adding that this is in a nutshell the problem facing Tasmanian forestry today. The situation is not entirely irreversible, as the approvals to build the pulp mill remain in place and can be sold on to somebody else as they are a property asset of Gunns. “But you would have to overcome the problems Gunns was not able to overcome plus the additional problem of the high Australian dollar, which makes exports expensive and stymied a lot of manufacturing export from Australia in the past few years.” COMPLEX POLITICS The difficulties of forming any agreement over the management of forest resources in Tasmania has twisted future planning for the forest industry out of shape. Forestry Tasmania, described as a Tasmanian State Government Business Enterprise, manages 1.5 million hectares of State forest for multiple uses, an area containing 39 per cent of Tasmania’s forests. Just less than half of the area of state forest is available for wood production, with the remainder being set aside for other values November 2012

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Southem Feature such as conservation and recreation. Forests on other public lands, mostly national parks and other conservation reserves are managed by separate agencies. Forestry Tasmania manages its operations with four administrative Districts across the State, and headquarters in Hobart. As of 30 June 2011, Forestry Tasmania employed 350 personnel and 975 contractors. There are some 108,000 ha of plantations on State forest, comprising: • 52,700 ha of softwood - Pinus radiata • 55,700 ha of hardwood - predominantly Eucalyptus globulus and E. nitens A portion of this plantation estate is in joint venture with private investors or customers, including buyers of finished forest products. (Source: Forestry Tasmania Annual Report, 2011) Although the State Government owns the resource, the Federal Government has effective power over what is done to the resource, says Pollard. The Federal Government has the constitutional power to control exports and has the financial power over Tasmania, because it is from the Commonwealth [as the states are known as] that the vast bulk of Tasmania’s state revenues come. “To Commonwealth dictates what financial resources are allocated, so the principal actor is not the State Government but is the Federal Government.” The Federal Government is conflicted because, despite the fact that it is a Labor Government with an ostensible commitment to ‘working people’, it is in alliance with the Green Party. The results of the last federal election has seen the Greens as supporting partners of the governing Labor Party, giving it the slimmest of majorities. The political profile of the Greens is such that it claims: “Nine Greens Senators and one MP in the Federal Parliament, 24 Greens Members in State Parliaments and more than 100 Greens councillors (including several Mayors and Deputy Mayors) working in local communities.” (Source: http://greens.org.au/our-story) “The Federal Government therefore, in alliance with the Greens and notwithstanding it is supposed to support jobs, has seen the Gunns exit as an opportunity to reduce the size of the forest industry,” says Pollard, adding that this is probably part of a long-term plan to eliminate native forestry altogether. As a result, he and others conclude, the government sees the forest industry in Tasmania as being dispensable in spite of the fact the state lacks alternative industries and jobs. The difficulty for Tasmania and hopes of industry development is that native forestry produces hardwood logs suitable for construction and finishes, whereas the softwood resources are used for a variety of purposes but predominantly for the production of pulp and paper. The revenue from Forestry Tasmania’s forest sales in 2011 totalled A$157 million (A$135.2 million in 2010), making it a considerable contributor to the economy. The value of the wood production from native forest sources came to an estimated A$117 million in 2011 for the more than 2 million cubic metres of wood harvested. This is compared to an estimated value of A$69 million from a softwood plantation volume of 912,000 cubic metres; and A$12 million from hardwood plantation production from 171,000 cubic metres. (Source: Forestry Tasmania annual report Appendix 2 Data Tables) However, even in Tasmania, the state forestry agency has been on the back foot as it has battled with opponents for many years. Although its opponents are predominantly from the environmental movement, opposition has come more recently from within a State Government comprised of a coalition of Labor and the Greens, leading to similar confusion of interests as experienced at a federal level. The current strength of the Greens has seen demands for more and more of Tasmania locked up in reserves, over and above the current level of about 48 per cent of the surface area designated as parks and reserves. “The Green Party was more and ultimately the question is ‘how much do they want?’ and that is part of the debate at the moment,” Pollard says.

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Southem Feature It would seem that a status quo either way would not deliver a viable Forestry Tasmania, because Pollard says a number of conditions need to be met. “One is to let Forestry Tasmania run its own business rather than, as the moment, attempting to weigh into the middle of this [issue] and split the responsibility between allocating harvestable land and doing harvesting. Forestry Tasmania is fully capable, and has for many years, of managing a whole lot of land for various uses. “But for reasons to do with Tasmanian politics, the government is attempting to split that responsibility between Forestry Tasmania and the relevant government department. The problem that drops out of that are everyone involved can see where that’s heading – it’s heading towards a continuing incremental shutdown of the industry.” The forest industry is about 2-3 per cent of Tasmania’s gross state product, a relatively high figure in what is mainly a service economy. However, the debate over Forestry Tasmania’s past, current and future roles in the economy are typified by an exchange in which an opponent claimed that most of the numbers employed were not in native forestry roles as such. (Source: http://members.iinet.net.au/~enclave/edge/facts.htm) FORESTRY AGREEMENT, FOR NOW The various parties are involved in an inter-governmental agreement designed at developing a formula for managing the forest estate once Gunns has completely exited the sector. Gunns exiting forestry in Tasmania opened up the possibility of shutting down half the native forestry in the state and letting the other half to exist, says Pollard. Demands have, however, arisen for more of the resource to be shut down for national parks – as much as half a million hectares – effectively making Forestry Tasmania’s operation unviable. “So discussions around forestry in Tasmania have been about bringing about a viable industry as well as closing down opposition to the industry on the grounds that if you appease them, they will go away.” Two years after starting series discussions, the parties have recently reached agreement. However, it is likely to be the kind of agreement in which no side is happy. Certainly, Terry Edwards, the chief executive of the Forest Industry Association of Tasmania, admitted as much in an interview with the ABC moments after the signing. He noted the industry has sacrificed considerable access to resources as a result of this agreement with 500,000 hectares of natural forest put in reserves - reducing the availability of high quality timber species the hallmark of wood production in the state. As a result, the downsizing of the forest industry will include cutting the legislated quota for sawlogs to 137,000 cubic metres. The difficulty for industry is getting to grips with the meaning of “high conservation areas”. Unlike the existing definition of high value areas under regional forest agreements, which resulted from a long and expensive process at the beginning of the move to address these issues nationally, Pollard says the currently used definition is more an appeal to emotion. However, Forestry Tasmania has extended its contract with managing director Bob Gordon for another five years effective from January 2013. Corporate relations manager Ken Jeffreys was made redundant after a breakdown in his relationship with government was reported. The chairman Miles Hampton earlier resigned over the government’s plans to carve up the organisation and the chief operating officer Mike Farrow is also leaving. As for Gunns, its assets will be moved on to other companies or employees will lose jobs if new owners cannot be found. The biggest losers in either of these scenarios are the shareholders, who have lost everything,

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Southem Feature

‘Вот что получилось’ or Here’s what happened A contributed article highlights how forestry operates in some other parts of the world. Pic from ‘Murder of Tsagi Forest. Courtesy of Black Circle Records. Author Tatiana Konakova, Translation Nadezhda Tarasova

T

he people in New Zealand [and other southern hemisphere countries] may regard Russia as a country of endless woods and consider that Russia and Siberia are the same. But there is a so-called Moscow agglomeration in our huge country. It includes Moscow and nearest towns. About 17 million people live here (it is 4.5 times bigger than the population of the KIWI country), and it is a region where the problem of forest preservation has become burning. The peculiarities of Russian economics and management have resulted (by some estimations) in the population increase by 3000 people a year and 0.06% annual reduction of forest. It should be noted that although a lot of people migrate to this region for work, the overall population growth is low due to a high death ratio. In addition, the rate of deforestation is high due largely to push by Russia to sell natural resources. With no gas and oil deposits here, the development actions undertaken have resulted in a “drastic level’ of forest harvesting to build new distribution centers, roads of any kind and other facilities. It happened so that the people of our small town lost 16 hectares of forest during two days. Zhukovsky is a young town. It was founded in the thirties of the last century and it is one of those rare towns which preserved 145 hectares of real pine forest on its territory. The old topographic maps prove how gently the young town

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Southem Feature fit in with the forest area, settling down on the waste lands, the fellings were minimized. Even the roads were built along old country roads and paths only. The people were proud of the forest and loved it. The old residents remember that during the World War II the natives suffering from extreme cold, didn’t cut out even a single tree in the forest. It can be explained by the fact that the forest protected the town from the negative effect of the experimental airfield at the Flight Research Institute named after M.M. Gromov, where almost all the Soviet and Russian aeroplanes were tested. Some of our readers might know Zhukovsky as a centre of Russian aeronautics, the site where The International Airshow MAKS is held (http://www.aviasalon.com/en.htm). The forest we are speaking about is named after the TSAGI (The Central Aerohydrodynamic Institute) (http://www.tsagi.com/). When Russia was The Soviet Union, an efficient system of forest preservation was used. And Zhukovsky forest gained the status of nature memorial as a unique relict woodland with its rich flora and fauna. Unfortunately, further events connected with the political “reconstruction” of our country led to the situation when the forests remained without appropriate funding and any attention to. Under such circumstances, the greediness of corrupt officials becomes dangerous for any forest. The situation concerning our forest ended in a tragedy: the route of a regional road was drawn through it. Our citizens regarded the project as a senseless and thievish one. All the official forces were involved to overcome the prohibitions of The Forest Code and to release the project. The Public Prosecutor, using doubtful ground reasons, appealed against the status of the nature memorial in the court. The judge agreed with the Public Prosecutor’s arguments notwithstanding the laws. This is how our forest officially “disappeared”. And there remained the only thing for the officials - to saw it off before the documents have been reissued. The Mayor sent out letters saying that there was no forest in Zhukovsky, the planners evaluated the pines as the cheap wood vegetation and the State commission of experts ratified the project. One night 21.03.2012, the street lightning was switched off and a huge cut-through was made in the forest with the help of increased security. Despite such a long prehistory the felling caught the citizens unaware. The first reaction was extremely emotional. Picketing and protest meetings took place in our town. Dozens of letters were sent to various ministries and civil society organizations, there were protests sent to public prosecution. Citizens clashed with road security members. That was clear that the documents for the road-building were not arranged properly. And a few citizens decided to set a Camp of Civil Control on the border between the cut-through and the remains of the forest in order to monitor the legitimacy of the work handled at the cut-through. We also made an attempt to stop the road construction. The camp attracted the attention of different media, ecologists, politicians and active, caring citizens. It also became a site for conducting actions in defense of the forest. That really displeased local authorities and the police. And soon after that some of the civil activists were arrested and, in the end, the camp was roughly broken up by the police and the people barred from entering the forest in contrary to the laws. The change of settings took place after the Governor of Moscow region was changed. He unexpectedly supported the forest defense movement, and the activists returned to the camp. At present, the road construction is being continued and the citizens are not able to stop it. But there exists a strong intention not let anybody continue destroying the forest and there is some success – the town forest is going to gain a protection status again. The united civil society regards its targets as wider ones, and the forest protection is becoming one of its concerns. The forest may be taken into management not connected with getting profit out of it. It means that the search for the sources of funding and the attraction of specialist in the field of forest reproduction and vermin protection. A difficult problem is to be solved: how to protect the forest from the negative effect of the town and the people without its artificial exception from the town environment. We seem to solve the problem which is a matter of world’s common concern. We would be glad to make friendly contacts with most different people and organizations or just get some advice. You can send you cooperation offers to the mail address ta-k@rambler.ru. November 2012

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Southem Supporters FORESTLAND INVESTMENT CONFERENCE Hold the Date! The University of Georgia Center for Forest Business announces its 2013 Forestland Investment Conference, February 27 through March 1, 2013 at the Ritz Carlton, Amelia Island, Florida USA. Key North American and International forestland analysts and investors plan to attend. For details please contact: Bob Izlar, + 1.706.542.6819, bizlar@warnell.uga.edu More information on our website: http://www.ugacfb.com/

ESRI FORESTRY CONFERENCE

- The 2012 Esri Forestry GIS Conference was a great success, helped by the willingness of participants to share their expertise. We look forward to seeing you at next year's event, May 14–16, 2013 in Redlands, California. For more information, contact: forestryinfo@esri.com View photos from the event at: http://www.flickr.com/groups/1977293@N21/pool/

LASER TECHNOLOGY AWARDED TRUPULSE® 360 COMPASS CALIBRATION TECHNIQUE PATENT

It has been years in the making but Laser Technology, Inc. (LTI) has been awarded a patent for the TruPulse 360 compass calibration technique. Jeremy G. Dunne, LTI’s Chief Technology Officer and innovator behind most of LTI's products, came up with the Magnetic Sensor and Accelerometer Calibration Technique. The major benefit of this is that users can quickly and easily calibrate a TruPulse 360 and instantly get a pass or fail confirmation right in the display scope. This is just one of the things that makes this a one-of-a-kind laser rangefinder with a built-in compass. http://www.lasertech.com/

REMSOFT – FORESTRY SOLUTIONS OPTIMIZE OIL & GAS RESOURCE CHALLENGES American Oil & Gas Reporter has profiled Remsoft. Ugo Feunekes, Founding Partner and Chief Technology Officer of Remsoft discusses some similarities between the oil and gas business and forestry, noting how forestry has had to learn to meet the challenges on margins not much richer than those earned by grocery stores; single-digit returns are not uncommon. The solution for foresters is based on technology that enables modeling and optimization across the entire life cycle and full geographic footprint of a managed timberland. See more at: http://www.remsoft.com/

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