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Easing war impact, rising supply set to make Asian thermal coal more affordable

With the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on commodity markets softening with 2023 arriving and several countries aiming to raise production, Asian thermal coal prices are expected to see a reasonable correction in 2023 given that supply concerns will likely take a back seat. Indonesia, China and India have all announced higher production targets for the next year as part of their larger goal of meeting domestic needs internally, which is expected to lessen the load on the Asian thermal coal trading market, according to miners, traders and buyers surveyed by S&P Global Commodity Insights. The Russia-Ukraine war shot Asian thermal coal prices to record levels in 2022 as additional demand from Europe, which sanctioned Russian fuel, created supply tightness. Even though prices have receded in recent months, they remain at levels higher than the average of the last two years. The FOB Kalimantan 4,200 kcal/kg GAR touched a year-to-date high March 10 at $136/mt, the day after FOB Kalimantan 5,000 kcal/kg GAR hit its year-to-date high at $190/mt March 9. Even though both prices then eased, they have averaged a firm $86.50/mt and $128.65/mt, respectively, to date in 2022. “Overall demand is expected to remain strong due to the robust economic outlook of countries like China, Indonesia and India. The impact of war will gradually ease as countries are adapting to new trade flows… India and China may continue to buy Russian coal, while also expanding their domestic production,” an Indonesia-based miner said.

Global coal use in 2022 is reaching an all-time high, but Australia is bucking the trend

In a year marked by record-smashing floods, fires, heat waves and droughts, the urgent need to act on climate change has never been more apparent. And yet, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has found coal burning for electricity generation will reach record levels this year. Why? Largely because rising natural gas prices, due to sanctions on Russia, is driving demand for less expensive coal to fill the gap in energy supply. The report finds Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has “sharply altered the dynamics of coal trade, price levels, and supply and demand patterns in 2022”. The good news, however, is the world’s coal use has peaked – and will soon rapidly decline. This is because new solar and wind power station capacity is being installed 18 times faster than new coal. In many countries such as Australia, retiring coal power stations are being replaced by solar and wind. Coal use in Australia’s National Electricity Market (NEM) peaked in 2008. Since then, the proportion of coal in the NEM electricity mix has fallen from 86% to 59%, and this decline is accelerating. So why is Australia ahead of the pack in weaning itself off coal? And what lessons can we offer the rest of the world?

The IEA report, released last week, suggests global coal use will rise 1.2% this year, surpassing 8 billion tonnes for the first time and the previous record set in 2013. Indeed, China, India and Indonesia, the three largest coal producers, will all hit production records this year.If there’s a silver lining, we’ve reached peak coal, and it’s only down from here. However, severe climate damage will result from a prolonged tail end of the coal industry.The IEA found despite high prices for coal, there is no sign of big investment in export mining projects. And this, it says, “reflects caution among investors and mining companies about the medium- and longer-term prospects for coal”.

Coal will be Australia’s number one export says authority

Fossil fuels are predicted to replace metals as the nation’s top commodity shipped abroad. Authorities are optimistic the value of exported Australian coal will overtake that of iron ore in the next six months.The federal Department of Industry, Science and Resources confirmed metallurgical coal and thermal coal exports totalled $114 billion during the 2022 financial year (FY).In FY23 this figure is expected to jump 16.7 per cent to $133B, dwarfing iron ore’s $114B sum for the same period. In the following fiscal period coal will decrease 24.1 per cent to $101B but this will still be higher than iron ore’s $95B total. The department expects coal production to jump in New South Wales and “especially” Queensland, from 163M tonnes (Mt) in FY22 to 183Mt by FY24 (up 12.2 per cent).“Metallurgical coal export earnings were $23B in 2020–21 but surged to $68B in 2021–22. Prices are now easing, as seasonal and short-term supply issues pass and demand edges back. This should see earnings fall moderately over the outlook period with export values eventually easing to a stillhigh $46B by 2023–24,” the latest resources and energy quarterly report said.

“Coal royalty payments boost Australian state’s budget forecast

Australia’s Queensland state on Wednesday forecast a record surplus for the current financial year, largely driven by higher royalty payments from coal producers on the back of a sharp rise in global energy prices due to Russia’s war in Ukraine. Coal and petroleum royalty revenue has been revised up by A$5.82 billion ($3.90 billion) for the financial year ending June next year, state Treasurer Cameron Dick said in a budget update. “Coal royalties are worth fighting for. Queenslanders deserve their fair share and they

will receive it,” Dick said. Queensland, home to coal mines owned by majors BHP Group Ltd, Glencore PLC, Anglo American PLC and Peabody Energy Corp BTU.N, in June ended a 10year freeze on royalty rates and raised them to capture windfall profit. A record surplus of A$5.2 billion is now forecast for the state for 2022-23. The budget update comes ahead of a meeting of federal and state leaders called by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on Friday to discuss enforcing price caps on gas and coal to contain soaring power prices. Albanese has said his government is considering price caps, but some resource-heavy states have pushed back as it could hit the revenue they make from royalty payments. Queensland has said it would seek compensation from the federal government for any revenue loss.

Australian mineral exploration expense hits record high

Australia's spending on non-petroleum mineral exploration hit a record high of A$1.08bn ($739mn) in July-September, as firms continued to look for iron ore, base metals, battery minerals and coal, despite flooding along the east coast, and continuously rising costs. Total spending on non-petroleum minerals across Australia during July-September was A$1.08bn, up from A$1.06bn in April-June and A$997.6mn in JulySeptember 2021, according to the latest release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Exploration spending rose to A$3bn in JanuarySeptember from A$2.64bn a year earlier and from A$1.02bn in the first nine months of 2016. Exploration on what the ABS calls "other deposits" rose to a record A$140.7mn in July-September from A$103mn in April-June and from A$83mn in July-September 2021. This category includes spending on exploration for lithium and other battery metals, which has increased markedly in the past five years as part of the push for increased electrification to reduce emissions. Base metal exploration spending also hit a record high of A$267mn in July-September, up from A$241.2mn in April-June and A$236.8mn in July-September 2021, driven by higher spending on copper, nickel, cobalt and zinc deposits. Spending on base metal exploration has been trending upwards and is double of what it was two years ago and more than quadruple of what it was in 2016.

Indonesia to produce nearly 700 mn ton of coal in 2023

Indonesia has targeted to raise its coal production to 694 million ton to fulfil domestic supply and export demands, the country's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced. "As we know that in 2022, we targeted to produce 663 million ton, and up to now the production has reached 94.6 per cent, or around 627 million ton. Next year our domestic needs are increasing, mostly for electricity," the Director for Development of Coal Business of the Ministry's Directorate General of Minerals and Coal, Lana Saria, said in a virtual seminar on Tuesday.According to the Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI), Indonesia indeed needs to produce more coal next year as demands from China and India will also increase. She said that Indonesia would continue to receive high coal demands from European countries, Xinhua news agency reported.In 2022, the coal export to Europe has significantly increased, reaching 4 million to 5 million ton, the largest coal export to Europe in history, while in previous years it only reached 500,000 ton, according to APBI.

Indonesia’s domestic appetite to rise

In Indonesia, miners will increase production, more of low- to mid-CV coal, because the domestic demand is also likely to rise on an expected rebound in the industrial and housing sectors,” the miner said. Based on discussions between Indonesian miners and the govern-

ment, the production target for next year stands at 690 million-700 million mt, above the 663 million mt targeted for 2022. Another Indonesiabased producer said he expects prices in 2023 to remain stable from 2022, with FOB Kalimantan 4,200 kcal/kg GAR coal seen in the range of $60-$70/mt. “We don’t expect weather anomalies around July and most of the first half of 2023. The problems of unavailability of heavy machinery have been sorted out,” the producer said. Indonesia’s projection for coal demand from the power sector is 161.15 million mt in 2023, up from an estimated 127.5 million mt for 2022 projected in December 2021, of which state-owned electricity utility demand is expected at 81 million mt. Demand from the country’s cement and fertilizer industry are expected to rise as well. For the 2022 target, upward revisions for state-owned PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara, or PLN, have been made during the year in the range of 5 million-8 million mt, but no such revisions were notified for the non-power sector. China, India demand to ease “We think that the market has lost its legs and will be lower in 2023,” a Singapore-based trader said, adding chances of a mild recession in Europe and Asia will also impact demand as well as pricing. “Demand is going to be weak in China and India, as domestic production will be higher.” Sources expect Chinese demand in January to be weak due to Lunar New Year falling in the second half of the month in 2023, but some stability is likely in the next two months thereafter.

Indonesia to Build Coal Plants despite $20b Deal on Clean Energy Transition

Indonesia will continue building new coal-fired power plants, despite a recent $20 billion deal with the G7 group of industrialized countries to help it transition to clean energy. Activists say this puts the deal, known as the Just Energy Transition Partnership and signed at the G20 summit that Indonesia hosted earlier this month, on the brink of collapse before it even takes off. “JETP in Indonesia has a huge risk of failure in its attempt to decarbonize [Indonesia’s] electricity system,” said AndriPrasetiyo, a researcher at Trend Asia, a Jakarta-based nonprofit that advocates for clean energy transition. “This is because the government is still sending a mixed signal in energy transition by not setting a clear deadline on stopping the construction of new coal plants.”Under the deal — the single largest climate finance partnership to date — Indonesia will aim to cap its emissions from the power sector by 2030, faster than the initial target of 2037, and to generate 34% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030. But the Indonesian government will still allow the construction of new coal plants, with a combined capacity of 13 gigawatts that have already been tendered out. The plan is laid out in the country’s 10-year energy plan for 2021-2030. Crucially, a 2022 regulation issued by President JokoWidodogreenlights the construction of what’s known as captive coal plants, which are built specifically to supply certain industries and not to feed into the grid.In a joint statement, Indonesia and its JETP partners — comprising the G7 plus Denmark and Norway — say they have a target to restrict the development of captive coal-fired power plants in accordance with the 2022 presidential regulation.

Thiess secures $230m contract extension for Indonesian coal mine

Thiess, the mining arm of Cimic Group, has received a A$345m ($230.6m) contract extension from Bayan Group to continue providing services at the Melak coal mine in East Kalimantan, Indonesia.Under the contract, which is effective from May 2023, Thiess will provide full mining services including load and haul, drill and blast, coal hauling and road maintenance, and rehabilitation at the mine. Thiess Indonesia secured a contract in October

2008 for the development and operation of the Bayan Group-owned Melak coal mine located near Melak in East Kalimantan, for a period of eight years.Thiess executive chair and CEO Michael Wright said: “Thiess has been delivering excellent outcomes for Bayan Resources at Melak since 2008. We strive to continue providing sustainable mining solutions for Bayan, building on our long, successful partnership.” Thiess Indonesia president director Jeffrey Kounang said: “We are pleased to be extending our operations at Melak where we have delivered exceptional outcomes for the client and community for the past 14 years, continuing our relationship with Bayan Resources.”Earlier this year, Thiess made an all-cash buyout proposal of A$350m ($243.1m) for Australian mining services company MACA.Under the bid implementation deed, Thiess offered A$1.025 ($0.71) in cash to MACA’s shareholders for each share held in the company.

China coking coal futures fall as Australia seeks to resolve trade rift

Chinese coking coal futures dropped more than 3%, extending losses as supply of the steelmaking input might increase if and when Beijing lifts trade sanctions against Australia.Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong was set to push China to lift trade sanctions during a trip to Beijing aimed at mending strained diplomatic ties. Relations between Beijing and Canberra soured after Australia introduced laws to deal with what it said was Chinese interference in Australian politics, and called for an independent investigation into the origins of COVID-19. Top steel producer China has taken measures to restrict or ban shipments of Australian barley, wine, meat, dairy, live seafood, logs, timber, coal and cotton.The most-traded May coking coal on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange DJMcv1 ended morning trade 3.3% lower at 1,845.50 yuan ($264.33) a tonne. It earlier hit 1,833 yuan, its weakest since Dec. 9. Coke DCJcv1, the processed form of coking or metallurgical coal, shed 3.5% to 2,668.50 yuan a tonne, after hitting 2,652 yuan, its lowest since Dec. 1."There may be signs of recovery in relations between the two countries. If Australian coal is released, domestic coking coal will turn from a shortage to a surplus," Zhongzhou Futures analysts said in a note.Concerns over weakening Chinese demand added pressure on prices of the raw materials and steel benchmarks.

Coal output in China's Shanxi up 8.9 pct in Jan-Nov

China's largest coal-producing region, Shanxi Province, reported steady coal production growth in the first 11 months of 2022, as it strives to guarantee the country's energy supply.Major coal mining enterprises in Shanxi produced nearly 1.2 billion tonnes of raw coal in the January-November period, up 8.9 percent year on year, the Shanxi provincial bureau of statistics said Tuesday. During this period, the province also transmitted 18 percent more electricity to support other regions -- as against the figure for the same period in 2021.As China's leading energy base, Shanxi is key to the country's energy security. The province planned to raise its coal production by 107 million tonnes to 1.3 billion tonnes in 2022. Local authorities have been coordinating production, transport and epidemic response to meet the production target.Last year, the province churned out over 1.19 billion tonnes of coal, accounting for nearly one-third of the country's total.

South Africa to send 19 coal shipments to Sri Lanka

The Chairman of Lanka Coal Company (Pvt) Ltd. ShehanSumanasekera told the Sunday Observer that as the coal supplier for Sri Lanka’s thermal power plants, they had scheduled coal

imports from South Africa months ago to run the country’s coal-fired thermal plants to avoid fears of coal shortages and electricity blackouts.Sumanasekera said this when asked about why officials of the Ceylon Electricity Board Engineers Association said that the country would face total blackouts from March next year due to lack of coal at its thermal power stations.He said, “I do not understand why they had said this.” “Moreover, I do not understand on what basis they floated the idea that the country would face “blackouts” from March so specifically, because the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) is well aware that our coal contractors had brought five coal cargos into the country and unloaded them already.”Moreover, the sixth vessel with 60, 000 tons of coal is expected to arrive in the country soon. We have placed orders for 19 shipments, of which five had arrived, and unloaded coal, “he said.“We have worked double-hard to get these supplies on a credit facility of six months. President RanilWickremesinghe, Central Bank Governor Dr.NandalalWeerasinghe. Power and Energy Ministry and the Government backed us in procuring the coal,” he said. When asked if the public should be concerned about a total blackout in March, as proposed by Ceylon Electricity Board trade unionists, Sumanasekera said, “They need not, because many coal shipments are already inbound to Sri Lanka, and many more will be.” He said the company took a package of measures to ensure the coal supplies despite the current economic problems it has to face amid the foreign exchange constraints.“There have been many challenges and delays we had to encounter because of various Letter of Credit opening issues, legal and other multi-faceted problems,” he said.

Transnet proposes switching to diesel trains to avoid disruptions to coal exports

South Africa’s state-owned rail and ports utility, Transnet has proposed switching to diesel trains in order to avoid disruptions to coal exports caused by the theft of power cables that disable electric locomotives. Speaking to Bloomberg News, Transnet CEO Portia Derby said: “I can’t see a solution, frankly, on these important corridors where we have a lot to fix, more urgent than going to diesel”. This was despite significant investment on electric trains. “That increases cost, but at least it improves reliability,” she said.At least 1,500 kilometers of cable was stolen in the current financial year. In addition, Transnet suffered the effects of a labour strike and a coal derailment which compounded its difficulties. Infrastructure crime such as the looting of copper power cables costs the South African economy an estimated R187bn rand a year, said the newswire citing a September report by the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime. Transnet in November lifted a force majeure on its main coal export line more than two weeks after a train derailed on the route. The clean-up efforts were complicated by violence and what the company described as extortion by a local business group located near the incident, Bloomberg said. Keeping such work in-house rather than contracting to outside parties also could potentially avoid such activity, according to Derby. “Whenever there’s been a derailment, it’s like blood sport,” Derby said. People arrive at the site and demand payment regardless of whether they’re taking part in the work or not. “That kind of thing we can’t solve, we need government.”

. 5G-connected coal mine an industry milestone in South Africa

The launch of a 5G-connected coal mine operation in South Africa is a major step toward digital transformation of the coal industry.Huawei, MTN, Minetec Smart Mining and Phalanndwa Colliery have launched the operation. This collaboration, at Canyon Coal’s Phalanndwa Colliery, sees Huawei and MTN provide an advanced 5G solution to ensure guaranteed connectivity within the mine and plant area, in the initial stage.

“Phalanndwa Colliery offers the perfect combination of the right technology with the right scenario, where ultra-high bandwidth and ultra-low latency of 5G allows real-time communication among the mine workers,” said Fortune Wang, Chief Executive Officer of Huawei’s South Africa Carrier Business.The country is the world’s top platinum producer and the mining industry accounts for 8 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).Wanda Matandela, Chief Commercial Operations Officer of MTN, said as MTN moves from being a tel-co to a tech-co, it had a significant role to play in the roll out of ground-breaking technology. “The deployment of more application scenarios, promises incredible changes will be happening in the Phalanndwa Colliery. These include proximity detection system (PDS), vehicle detection, tracking system and wireless video surveillance,” he added. The systems will reduce the occurrence of accidents while protecting workers from being harmed by trucks.Furthermore, they will be able to monitor the movement trajectory and status of trucks in real time to shorten downtime.Experts believe this kind of advancement will become increasingly important as South Africa looks to remain competitive in the global mineral and resources space.

European thermal coal imports set to jump 36% in 2022

West European coal imports looked set to rise by a third this year as buyers rushed to stockpile Russian coal ahead of an EU-wide ban this summer and as power producers attempted to conserve gas ahead of winter, data showed Imports from all origins to seven countries – including the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, France, the UK and Italy – were provisionally seen at around 57m tonnes, up by some 15m tonnes from the 2021 total, according to DBX estimates. “The background for that increase is the strong rise in demand for the restocking of high-quality Russian product before the ban came into force,” said a coal analyst with a European trading firm. Of the total, Russia would ship around 16m tonnes this year, down 36% versus last year. And supplies from Russia since August – when an EU-wide ban on Russian coal imports was introduced in response to its invasion of Ukraine – have plunged to an average of just 0.13m tonnes/month, likely of just Kazakh coal loaded at Russian ports. As such, total deliveries from all origins in the first half of the year surged nearly 90% to more than 32m tonnes, while those in the second half would likely slip 1.5%, compared with July-December 2021, to nearly 25m tonnes, the dry bulk data provider’s data showed. The analyst also cited political decisions to reopen mothballed coal plants or to keep some running for longer amid concerns about winter power supply security – mainly due to sharply reduced natural gas being piped from Russia.

Germany ramps up electricity generation from coal amid energy crisis

More than a third of electricity produced and fed into the grid in Germany in the third quarter (Q3) of 2022 was generated by coal-fired power plants, according to a report based on provisional results and published by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis).Amid the energy crisis, coal-generated electricity in Europe's largest economy increased by 13.3 per cent year-onyear, according to Destatis on Wednesday. Germany still aims to phase out coal as a power source by 2030. In order to ensure security of energy supply during winter, the German government has decided to temporarily return to coal-fired power plants. The first plant was already reactivated in early August, Xinhua news agency reported. Despite the high gas prices, electricity production from natural gas in Q3 was 4.5 per cent higher compared to a year earlier, accounting for 9.2 per cent of electricity fed into the grid, according to Destatis. Gas prices in Europe have more than doubled

since the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. After peaking at almost 350 euros (368 US dollars) per megawatt hour at the end of August, European TTF (Title Transfer Facility) gas futures were trading at around 140 euros. Due to Germany's nuclear phase-out, the total share of electricity generated from conventional energy sources declined to 55.6 per cent, according to Destatis. Only half as much nuclear power was generated as in the previous year. The last three nuclear power plants in Germany were originally scheduled to be shut down at the end of this year. As with coal, however, the government had to make a U-turn in order to guarantee security of supply, allowing the remaining plants to operate until April 15, 2023.

Britain approves first new coal mine in decades

Britain approved its first new deep coal mine in decades to produce the high-polluting fuel for use in steelmaking, a project that critics say will hinder the UK's climate targets. The Woodhouse Colliery, to be developed by West Cumbria Mining in northwest England, seeks to extract coking coal which is used in the steel industry rather than for electricity generation. It is expected to create around 500 jobs. The project, unveiled in 2014, has come under criticism from the British government's own independent climate advisory panel as well as climate activists and organizations, including Greta Thunberg and Greenpeace. "This coal will be used for the production of steel and would otherwise need to be imported. It will not be used for power generation," a spokesperson for the Department of Levelling Up, Housing and Communities said. "The mine seeks to be net zero in its operations and is expected to contribute to local employment and the wider economy." The majority of the coal produced is expected to be exported to Europe. Planning documents show that more than 80% of the coal the mine will produce annually is forecast to, after five years, be sent to an export terminal on England's east coast. Greenhouse gas emissions from burning coal — such as in steel and power plants — are the single biggest contributor to climate change, and weaning countries off coal is considered vital to achieving global climate targets. Britain has passed laws requiring it to bring all greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050.

Czech OKD to keep CSM coal mine running until 2025 amid energy crisis

Czech state-owned hard coal miner OKD will keep its CSM mine running until 2025, officials said, extending its life as Europe deals with an energy crisis caused by soaring prices.The state had earlier this year approved the continuation of mining at the site in the country's northeast until 2023."The decision to continue mining until 2023 has proven to be key to handling the current energy crisis," Finance Minister ZbynekStanjura said in a statement published on the ministry's website on Friday. "Unfortunately the price of heating will rise next year for more than 100,000 households in this region, but far less than if we did not have OKD coal available. I see the company's mediumterm outlook as very realistic."OKD said it had sold out its capacity of 1.1 million tonnes of coal production for 2023, and 90% of that for 2024. An environmental impact study underway is a condition for continuing after 2023, the ministry and OKD said. Coal consumption may rise in Bangladesh this year: IEA report Although the coal consumption declined in Bangladesh last year, it is expected to increase sharply this year, the International Energy Agency said yesterday. The report said it is not the case of Bangladesh only, as coal use across the world is set to reach a new record this year amid persistently high demand for the heavily polluting fossil fuel.“Coal consumption in Bangladesh declined by 0.8 Mt to 3.8 Mt in 2021 but is expected to grow by 2.8 Mt in 2022,” said the report styled “Coal 2022: Analysis and forecast to 2025”.Explaining the reason behind such rise,

the Paris-based agency, in a new report, said the sharp growth in coal consumption is due to the commissioning of the two 660 MW blocks of the Payra power station in March and December 2021.

U.S. Coal Exports to Europe Up 46% by Weight, 184% by Value

Europe is buying almost 50% more U.S. coal as winter approaches and the Russian invasion of Ukraine drags on, increasing the percentage of U.S. coal shipped to Europe to the highest level since 2016. The overall value of U.S. coal exports to Europe has risen significantly more, up 184.21%, according to the latest Census Bureau data. That’s the effect of increasing volume at the same time prices are increasing rapidly. While the price increase is affecting all regions of the world fairly equally, Europe is paying its additional cost as it faces a shortage of heating fuel. Its traditional source — Russian natural gas — is very much in doubt as Russia retaliates for European and U.S. sanctions over Ukraine. Consequently, Europe is now scrambling to build facilities to convert this LNG back into natural gas, which its nations can more readily accommodate. And, now, it means buying more coal. From 2007 to 2015, Europe had purchased more than half of all U.S. coal exports, by value. By 2021, that had plummeted to 30.39%. Through October of this year, relying on the most current data, those exports to Europe have surged to 43.47%. Despite the increase in U.S. coal exports to Europe, overall exports to the world are up less than 1% by weight, according to the latest Census Bureau data, which is through October. Coal remains primary source of energy generation for 15 US states

In 15 US states last year, coal was used to generate electricity more than any other energy source. Twenty years earlier, in 2001, coal was the largest source of electricity generation in 32 states. The United States has shifted away from coal-fired generation since it peaked in 2007 and toward natural gas and renewables. In 2001, natural gas was the largest source of in-state electricity generation in seven states. By 2021, that number had grown to 23 states, driven by widespread retirement of coal-fired power plants and new construction of natural gas-fired power plants. Wind and solar capacity were also growing during that time. Coal-fired plants have not been competitive economically with relatively lower-cost natural gas and renewables. Many of the country’s coal plants were built in the 1970s and 1980s. As coal plants aged and faced price pressure from natural gas and renewables and from emissions regulations, many have been closed. Ohio and Pennsylvania had the largest declines in coal-fired capacity over the past 20 years; the largest source of electricity in both states shifted from coal to natural gas over that period. As coal plants retired, significant natural gas-fired and renewable capacity, including wind and solar, was added. Technological advancements—namely horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracking—led to a rise in US natural gas production. Low natural gas prices helped make natural gas-fired power plants an attractive alternative to coal. Texas, Florida, California, Pennsylvania, and Ohio added the most natural gas-fired capacity between 2001 and 2021. In 2021, natural gas accounted for the largest share of in-state generation in all five states. In three states – Iowa, Kansas, and South Dakota – where coal-fired plants generated the most electricity in 2001, the largest shares of electricity generation shifted to wind turbines by 2021. All three states are located in the blustery Great Plains, where the country’s most abundant onshore wind resources are located. Although many states have shifted away from coal as the largest source of electricity over the past 20 years, in 2021, coal still accounted for more than 70% of in-state generation in four states: West Virginia (91%), Missouri (75%), Wyoming (74%), and Kentucky (71%). Three of these states (West Virginia, Wyoming, and Kentucky) are among the nation’s largest coal producers.

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