TPS 554 Housing Policies and Development
Housing Market Trends in Philippines Session October – February 2021
Prepared by: Amirah Syahirah binti Mohd Azam 2018247936 Muhammad Iskandar bin Rosman 2018400806 Nur Asyikin binti Mohd Kaus 2018285826 Nur Syazana Nabilah binti Yusri 2018248182 Nurulnabila binti Hilmy 2018663518 Group: AP221/5B Supervised by: Dr Hamizah binti Yakob
01
02
Introduction
Aspect of Housing Market Trend
4-5
6-7
03
04
Government Intervention & Policies
Factor
8-14
15-24
05
Conclusion
Contents.
25
I
Introduction By: Nurulnabila
n the west Pacific Ocean, there is the South East Asian island region which is the Philippines. With 300,000 km2 of land that is comparable in scale to Italy. In 2020 there are 108 million peoples in the Philippines, which makes the Philippines the 13th largest population in the world.
The Philippine capital is Manila where economic, political, social, and cultural events are at the center of the region. The Philippines is one of the developing countries in various sectors. One of them is the housing sector. Economic analysts in 2017-2019 expect that housing status will stay high in the Philippines in 2020. The supply and demand curves are at a stable pace, with increased investment demands from cities outside Metro Manila. Yet in 2020, after the COVID-19 disaster occurred, everything had changed as the government enforcing an Enhanced Community Quarantine (ECQ) strictly in all places to monitor virus spillover. The pandemic of COVID-19 has arisen and practically shut down the economy. This has a huge impact on businesses, as some had to suspend their activities and some had to work from home.
Source: Leif Inge, 2018
Source: Charles Deluvio, 2017
Source: Michael, 2019
Source: Xinhua, 2020
Source: Madrilejos, 2020
From 2010 to 2018, the housing market in the Philippines has risen significantly. However, in 2019 it slowed down because of the United States and China trade war, and now comes 2020 which the COVID-19 pandemic has happened. The pandemic of COVID-19 will do more than change our perceptions. It will have an immense impact on the country's housing markets. It is very clear that with significant unemployment, pay losses, industry failures, job instability, and the stock market deteriorating steadily, many people are going to be hesitant to make the greatest investment of their lives to purchase a home.
Aspect of Housing Market Trend By: Nur Syazana Nabilah
Aspect Of Housing Market Trend In Philippines The Philippine housing industry believes that, despite of economic status, every Filipino family has the right to live in the comfort of their own home. As the demand for living spaces continues to rise, the housing sector in Philippines has a huge potential to growth.
"Unemployment in the Philippines in July 2020 is estimated at 10 percent. Higher than the same month last year at 5.4 percent, but lower than the highest amount at 17.7 percent recorded in April 2020“, said Philippine economist and statistics expert Dennis Mapa in a virtual media briefing.
Unemployment Rate Unemployment rate affect an economic growth. This is happen when unemployment rate is rising, a lot of people does not be able to buy a house. Due to the Covid-19 crisis, an unemployment rate will increase due to the failure of companies to carry out an operations as usual. This start to occur when the Movement Control Order(MCO) start to run. Housing Market trends will be affected by the economic aspect. The number of unemployed aged 15 years and above, is estimated at 4.6 million in July 2020 - higher than 2.2 million at the same time last year lower than 2.7 million three months ago. This statement proved by Philippine economist and statistics expert, Dennis Mapa.
Source: bernama.com, 2020
Interest Rate The cost of monthly mortgage payments is influenced by interest rates. A duration of high interest rates would raise mortgage payment costs and contribute to reduced demand for the purchase of a home. Compared to buying, high interest rates render renting relatively more attractive. When homeowners have large variable mortgages, interest rates have a bigger impact.
Aspect of Housing Market Trend By: Nur Syazana Nabilah
As state in the Berita Harian News, 2019. Philippine economic growth fell to a three-year low in 2018 despite rising in the fourth quarter, giving its central bank a reason to continue raising interest rates. An increase in interest rates will have a negative impact on housing market trends when interest rates will cause buyers to lose. This will cause buyers to be less interested in buying a home.
Source: corporatefinanceinstitute.com, 2015
Supply The lack of supply is causing prices to increase. Excessive production is going to cause prices to drop. Excessive supply of housing would cause the loss of property. The market is left with an inherent supply advantage when the real estate market crashes. The law of supply have state that a higher price will induce producers to supply a higher quantity to the market. Likewise, when supply is low, prices will rise as people will scramble to buy up scarce resources. This indicates that lack of supply will provide high demand and high prices. This will make the low-income population unable to afford a home and it will cause the low-income population to stay remain homeless and live in harmony.
Government Intervention & Policies
Government Intervention
By: Muhammad Iskandar
Government intervention is a key roles in housing market trend not only in Philippines but the rest of other country too. Housing intervention in Republic of the Philippines is under the jurisdiction of National Housing Authority or NHA. Roles of Philippines Government on Housing Market The NHA have the vision to see the housing sectors thrive with great potential for growth as the populations continue to increase. Housing is the human’s basic needs, and the government must oversee housing as the main pillar of a nation’s sustainability Philippines Government Interventions
Pag-IBIG Affordable Housing Program Pag-IBIG or Pagtutulungan sa Kinabukasan: Ikaw, Bangko, Industria at Gobyerno translated as Working Together for the Future: You, Banks, Industry and Government is one of the interventions made by the government.
1
Pag-IBIG is a Home Mutual Development Fund that offer affordable housing for those with incomes lower than P17,500 (RM 1,472) with lower monthly interest rates. Purchase of a residential house and lot, townhouse, or condominium unit
Purchase of a fully developed residential lot or adjoining lots not exceeding 1,000 square meters
Construction or completion of a residential unit on a lot owned by the member
Pag-IBIG offer the low incomes being able to;
Government Intervention & Policies By: Muhammad Iskandar
Community Mortgage Program (CMP)
2
The foundation of Community Mortgage Program or CMP sole objectives is to upgrade the living conditions of the needy and homeless Filipinos by giving them affordable finance so they can purchase their own land and house development.
Assists legally organized associations of residents of blighted or depressed areas to own the land and lots they occupy
CMP
Philippines’s Mortgage Financing Program
Providing those in need, security of tenure and eventually improve their neighborhood and homes to the extent of their affordability
Abot-Kaya Pabahay Fund Developmental Loan Program (AKPF - DLP) ‘Abot-Kaya Pahabay’ mean affordable housing in Tagalog. AKPF – DLP is a Philippines’s intervention to provide affordable housing package for the low income's Filipinos in key urbanized areas and other localities with high affordable-housing demands.
3
The objectives of the DLP loan help to serve as initial investments for the development of affordable housing and construction of housing units afterwards Loan purposes
Site upgrading/development and housing construction Site development and construction of high-density housing units for the HDH Program Providing affordable housing package for the low income's Filipinos
Loan Interest Interest rate shall be at 6% annually
Loan amount provided by the Govt P15 million (RM1,265,407.64) for projects covered by CMP P75 million (RM6,326,542.68) for projects under the HDH Program
Loan Security A mortgage shall be properly constituted on the property. Owner’s Duplicate Title ownership without legal encumbrances
Government Intervention & Policies By: Muhammad Iskandar
Philippines’s Government Housing Policies
Public policies is important to housing because policies can improve the effectiveness and fair housing markets if the policies are thoughtfully well designated and implemented. Policies that affect affordable housing trend in Philippines SOCIAL HOUSING FINANCE CORPORATION
Created by the NHA, the SHFC objectives is to undertake social housing that will cater to the formal and informal sectors in the low-income category and taking charge on developing and supporting affordable housing project such as CMP and AKPF programs.
ECONOMIC AND LOWCOST HOUSING
CRITERIA Housing price shall be more than P450,000 (RM 38,000) but not exceeding P 3 Million (RM 253,636.27) Minimum of 20 livable units in a single site or building Must be new or expanding economic/low-cost housing project Common facilities must be included to all housing units
Government Intervention & Policies By: Muhammad Iskandar
Philippines Government Public Policies And Interventions On Housing Market
Source: National Housing Authority PH, 2020
Government intervention and policies is a key roles in housing market trend not only in Philippines but the rest of other country too. Housing intervention in Republic of the Philippines is under the jurisdiction of National Housing Authority or NHA. Policy making by the government housing is important because housing is crucial to economic growth. Government should intervene in the housing market because they can allocate resources more effectively and make the market move efficiently.
Source: Timemagazine, 2020
Roles Of Philippines Government On Housing Market The NHA have the vision to see the housing sectors thrive with great potential for growth as the populations continue to increase (NHA,2020). Housing is the human’s basic needs, and the government must oversee housing as the main pillar of a nation’s sustainability.
The NHA have undergo some moves by enabling strategic interventions and policy making with hopes that housing can be afford and enjoyed by everyone equally because shelter is the most important basic need for humans.
Government Intervention & Policies
Philippines’s Government Housing Policies
Source: cnnphilippines, 2016
By: Muhammad Iskandar
Public policies is important to housing developments in Philippines. Policies can improve the effectiveness and fair housing markets if the policies are thoughtfully well designated and implemented. So, having good policies may give clear idea of what housing sector should achieve next
SOCIAL HOUSING FINANCE CORPORATION Created by the NHA, the SHFC objectives is to undertake social housing that will cater to the formal and informal sectors in the lowincome category and taking charge on developing and supporting affordable housing project such as CMP and AKPF programs. (gov.ph, 2020) ECONOMIC AND LOW-COST HOUSING Housing price shall be more than P450,000 (RM 38,000) but not exceeding P 3 Million (RM 253,636.27) Minimum of 20 livable units in a single site or building Must be new or expanding economic/low-cost housing project Common facilities must be included to all housing units Source: Pinterest, 2018
Government Intervention & Policies
Philippines’s Government Interventions
By: Muhammad Iskandar
Pag-IBIG Affordable Housing Program
Pag-IBIG or Pagtutulungan sa Kinabukasan: Ikaw, Bangko, Industria at Gobyerno translated as Working Together for the Future: You, Banks, Industry and Government is one of the interventions made by the Philippines government (gov.ph, 2020) Purchase of a residential house and lot, townhouse, or condominium unit
Pag-IBIG offer
the low Pag-IBIG is a Home Mutual incomes being Development Fund that offer able to; affordable housing for those with incomes lower than P17,500 (RM 1,472) with lower monthly interest rates.
Purchase of a fully developed residential lot or adjoining lots not exceeding 1,000 square meters Construction or completion of a residential unit on a lot owned by the member
Community Mortgage Program (CMP) The foundation of Community Mortgage Program or CMP sole objectives is to upgrade the living conditions of the needy and homeless Filipinos by giving them affordable finance so they can purchase their own land and house development (gov.ph, 2020) CMG assists legally organized associations of residents of blighted or depressed areas to own the land and lots they occupy
CMG also providing those in need, security of tenure and eventually improve their neighborhood and homes to the extent of their affordability Source: Pinterest, 2018
Government Intervention & Policies
Abot-Kaya Pabahay Fund Developmental Loan Program (AKPF - DLP)
By: Muhammad Iskandar
‘Abot-Kaya Pahabay’ mean affordable housing in Tagalog. AKPF – DLP is a Philippines’s intervention to provide affordable housing package for the low income's Filipinos in key urbanized areas and other localities with high affordable-housing demands (sfcph, 2019)
Source: Shutterstock, 2017
The objectives of the DLP loan help to serve as initial investments for the development of affordable housing and construction of housing units afterwards (gov.ph, 2020) Loan purposes
Loan Amount
Loan Security
Site upgrading and development of housing construction Site development and construction of high-density housing units for the HDH Program
P15 million (RM1,265,407.64) for projects covered by CMP
A mortgage shall be properly constituted on the property. Owner’s Duplicate Title ownership without legal encumbrances
Providing affordable housing package for the low income's Filipinos
P75 million (RM6,326,542.68) for projects under the HDH Program
Loan Interest Interest rate shall be at 6% annually
AFP-PNP Housing Program
Source: pcoo.gov, 2020
The intervention intended to provide low-income personnel of Armed Forces of Philippines (AFP) and polices (PNP) with decent and affordable housing (NHA.gov, 2020)
Factor | Demand & Supply
In the form of strict quarantine procedures in the COVID-19 pandemic, the housing sector in the Philippines reported minimal change in the second quarter of 2020.
Demand by Classification
99.08% 98.90%
If there are low supply and high demand, the prices appear to rise in value. On the other hand, the price continues to decrease if the supply is high and the demand is low.
96.48% 95.55%
Supply and demand policy, which describes why the product or service is connected with demand and supply, and how this connection influences the price of the good or service.
The demand for housing developments diminished and the overall units sold were decreased due to cancellations. Luxury housing developments have mostly been affected by unchanged rates. On the other hand, demand in other classifications only dropped by a small amount, even during the pandemic will also accommodate high-end, middle-income, and affordable housing projects.
95.53% 96.48%
Demand and supply also relate to the housing market. This means that house values, including stocks and bonds, are strongly dependent on supply and demand policy.
There were no new housing developments were launched for this period due to lock-down guidelines and unsteady business conditions. Several developers continue to sell past ventures and keep inventories while waiting for the stabilization of market activities.
93.28% 86.00%
Demand & Supply
By: Nurulnabila
Luxury
High-end
Mid-end
Affordable
Q1 2020
Q2 2020
Source: Santos Knight Frank Research, 2020 Q1 2020: January, February & March Q2 2020: April, May & June
Factor | Housing Price By: Amirah Syahirah
Housing
Price
New Housing Need 2012-2030
Table 1 : Price Range
Market Segment
Price Range
Unit Needed
Can’t Afford/Subsidy
400K & below
1,449,854
Socialized Housing
400K & below
1,582,497
Economic Housing
400K – 1.25M
2,588,897
Low Cost Housing
1.25M – 3M
605,692
Mid Cost Housing
3M – 6M
No need
High End Housing
>6M
No need
Total Need
6,226,940 Source: industry. gov, 2020
Table 2 : Quarterly
Year
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2020
5.69
-6.6
-6.92
2019
6.35
-17.63
4.34
8.27
2018
0.86
1.61
1.46
5.55
2017
2.64
2.72
0.62
1.56
2016
2.57
1.53
2.07
1.19
2015
5.58
2.27
2.36
1.68
Source: GPG, 2020
Table 1 shows, the range price of house by market segment in Philippines. Range price from 400k and below is usually for the lower income, while high end housing such as bungalow, luxury condominium is for high income. Table 2 shows the quarterly changes on house price every year. Every quarterly is within 3 month and every 3 month, the house price will change. For 2020, the percentage for Q2 and Q3 drop, due the slow economy during MCO
Factor | Housing Price By: Amirah Syahirah
Property Type Condominium
Duplex Detached
Single Detached
Townhouse • Condominium units increase of 29.1% (28.6% inflation adjusted) in Q3 2019 from a year earlier. • Single detached prices rose by 2.4% (2.1 inflation adjusted) during the year to Q3 2019 • Duplex house prices increase 24.8% (24.4% inflation adjusted) in Q3 2019 • Townhouse price rose by 6%(5.7% inflation adjusted) in Q3 2019
With Covid-19 crisis housing market project to slow sharply this year 2020, as potential homebuyers are expected to take a ‘wait and see’ approach in the short term
Source: Wikipedia(Philippines map during Covid 19), 2020
Factor | Housing Price
Housing Price
By: Amirah Syahirah
AFFORDABLE HOUSING
CONDOMINIUM
Price Range: Php 400k - Below
Price Range: Php 3M – 6M
Source: metronewscentral.net, 2020
Source: Golfhill Garden, 2020
LOW- COST HOUSING
DUPLEX HOUSE
Price Range: Php 400k – 1.25M
Price Range: Php 3M – 6M
Source: cebuhomeph.weebly.com, 2014
Source: cebudreamland.com, 2019
TOWNHOUSE
PENTHOUSE
Price Range: Php 1.25M – 3M
Price Range: Php >6M
Source: GreatEmpireRealty, 2020
Source: propgoluxury.com, 2014
Housing Location
Factor | Housing Location By: Muhammad Iskandar
Housing location is very important in nowadays housing market trends. Housing location is the main factors that determine the property’s pricing because some of locales especially main urban area have more valuable property value and depreciates at lower rate compared to lessstrategic locations.
Valuable property depends on the locations. Housing in the city tend to be more valuable compared even to housing with more rooms outside the city. As for Metro Manila, housing market has boom for the past few 10 years with the increasing of 132% (GPG, 2020).
Source: Tripsavvy, 2020
Cities like Metro Manila that have better developed, tend to have higher price because of its centrality. Moreover, accessibility and facilities in the city is way much better and tend to attract more people to live in the city and increase the demand on housings (GPG,2020)
Source: Philippropertexpert, 2018
Good locations in the Metro Manila have brighter future for developments. New school, hospitals and better public transportation and other facilities also ensure the value of the property. However, in this pandemic, housing property value tend to experiencing slow value rate because cities tend to have higher infection rate and people are losing jobs and profit, so they are losing the intends to having their own property.
Type of Housing AFFORDABLE HOUSING
Affordable housing is not listed as a luxury when it comes to residential property. The majority of the population of the country owns most of these types of house. Socialized housing, economic housing and low-cost housing are three kinds of affordable housing in the Philippines.
Factor | Type of Housing By: Nur Syazana Nabilah
Economic-Housing
02
Economic housing is an affordable home that covers the price spectrum beginning with P450,000 but not exceeding P1. Seven million. The lower income class and potentially the largest portion (already about 85%) of the housing backlog are captured by these classes.
Socialized-Housing
01
Socialized housing applies to housing initiatives and schemes covering housing and lots or lots of housing only for underprivileged and homeless people implemented by the government or the private sector, including the construction of sites and facilities, long-term funding, liberalised conditions on interest payments and such other benefits in the agreement. Socialized housing is for projects costing P450,000 or below.
Source: metronewscentral.net, 2020
Source: cebuhomeph.weebly.com, 2014
Low- Cost Housing
03
This low cost of housing are not mainly focus for the low income residents. This is all because low cost housing in Philippines covers housing projects costing from P1.7 million to P3 million. It shows that only the richest 20% with earning P680,000 annually and above) of Filipino households can afford low cost housing.
Source: lowcost.house, 2016
Factor | Type of Housing
TOWNHOUSE Compared to houses and condos, mosttownhouses are more afforda ble. A townhouse can be described as a tall and narrow house that generally has two or more floors. These types of housing are built side by side much of the time, each sharing walls with one or two units, and may or may not have a car parking area. In Philippines, townhouses are very common. It is the most commercially viable form of housing to be purchase. The townhouses is a double-storey building essentially, but it is constructed with a walls adjacent to each other. It is the form most widely offered in commercial real estate distribution, such as Camella Homes. People who can get used to living next to the neighbour, particularly if they are on a tight budget, this kind of houses might be suitable and will be a very livable place for them. For instance, in Philippines, townhouses in Quezon City are popular with most families.
Source: GreatEmpireRealty, 2020
DUPLEX HOUSE
By: Nur Syazana Nabilah
A duplex house is basically a building for two households with different entrances. This can be a two storey house design or a sideby-side layout designed in a single lot that shares a common wall between them.
Source: cebudreamland.com, 2019
CONDOMINIUM
It is a preferred types of house mainly by yuppies and small families to live in a condo. It is valuable to anyone who wants a comfort despite living in the metro due to its accessibility to commercial business hubs and different means of transport. Some of the most costly but truly beneficial condo units are located in Bonifacio Global City, Taguig, and luxury apartments in Legaspi Village, Makati. This type of house can either be a residential mid -rise or high-rise building.
Source: Golfhill Garden, 2020
Factor | Type of Housing By: Nur Syazana Nabilah
STUDIO-TYPES
PENTHOUSE
The most affordable kind is also a studio-type unit. All in one room are the bedroom, kitchen, and dining areas. In total floor area, the room can go as low as 18sqm. If a unit has an elevated bedroom that can be reached by stairs, it is a loft. Usually, the bedroom is accessible and overlooks the living space. For someone who is finicky about privacy, it is not ideal.
The costliest type of condo unit is a penthouse. It features a wide floor area that compared to the other types, implies greater privacy.
Source: propgoluxury.com, 2014
Source: signetproperties.ph, 2019
Factor | Issues of Affordable Housing
ISSUES of Affordable Housing Poverty
01
The main issue for affordable housing is poverty because it is indirectly related to other issues. It is clearly shows that the living conditions of some communities in the Philippines are very poor where they are forced to live in squatter areas without having a suitable place to live. There is 16% of the population living in the Philippines below the poverty line and this is enough to state that the poverty rate in the Philippines is quite high. Source: Clint Borgen, 2020
By: Nur Asyikin
This is because the majority of Filipinos are more depends on the agricultural sector, which will only provide less lucrative returns especially during pandemic Covid – 19. According to the study, a large number of families in the Philippines live with only $ 2 a day, the community is more concerned with basic needs than buying a house as a shelter.
Cost
02
Affordable housing prices are very important and related to the first issue which is poverty. In Philippines, affordable house rates are not suitable for people with moderate and low total income.
“About 800,000 families in the Philippines are unable to own a home for $ 8200 and above.” Source: Universities of Asian and Pacific, 2020
Source: GMA network, 2013
Factor | Issues of Affordable Housing
The rapid urbanization aspect also has caused land prices to rise and indirectly developers will place high house prices including affordable housing to get high capital returns. When house prices are high, the chances for middle and low-income communities to own an affordable house are very low.
Source: Compareremit, 2020
One – sided Intervention / Housing Finance Program
03
The importance of intervention between the public sector and the private sector is very important in the construction of affordable housing. However, the private sector refused to enter into affordable housing construction projects assuming that commercial returns and margins would be lower and difficult to achieve a significant scale.
By: Nur Asyikin
I
Conclusion By: Nur Asyikin
n conclusion, the development of housing areas especially affordable housing is very important to achieve the vision goals of a country. Overall housing trends in the Philippines are increasing but as a result of the Covid-19 outbreak, housing trends are now slowly declining. Based on the above factors, it can be concluded that the price of housing in the Philippines is relatively high compared to other countries in Asia.
Therefore, the middle and low income communities in the Philippines are still unable to afford to buy their own houses. Accordingly, slum areas in the Philippines need to be eliminated phase by phase. However after the wave of Covid-19 outbreaks, demand for housing declined due to the increasing rate of infection and rising unemployment rates. As a result, it is vital to create more affordable housing that is affordable and in line with the income of all citizens in the Philippines besides being able to enhance the productivity of the circumstances and the quality of life.
References
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References
References Staff, I. (2020, December 09). The Effect of Supply and Demand on the Housing Market. Retrieved December 15, 2020, from https://www.investopedia.com/ask /answers/040215/how-does-lawsupply-and-demand-affecthousing-market.asp INDUSTRY.GOV.PH 2020 , Securing The Future of Philippine Industries , Retreived December 15 2020 from http://industry.gov.ph/industry/ho using/ COVID-19 & Philippine Real Estate: Impacts, Opportunities, and Strategies. (n.d.). Retrieved December 15, 2020, from https://santosknightfrank.com/ma rket-report/covid-19-philippinereal-estate-impactsopportunities-and-strategies/ Struyk, T. (2020, September 30). The 5 Factors of a 'Good' Location. Retrieved December 15, 2020, from https://www.investopedia.com/fin ancial-edge/0410/the-5-factorsof-a-good-location.aspx
Chester Cunan Arcilla, (2019). Affordability of Socialized Housing in the Philippines (Policy Brief). Retrieved from (PDF) Arcilla 2019 Affordability of Socialized Housing in the Philippines (Policy Brief) (researchgate.net) Marife Ballesteros, PIDS, (2010). Reforming housing for the poor in the Philippines. Retrieved from https://www.eastasiaforum.org/20 10/03/27/reforming-housing-forthe-poor-in-the-philippines/ Martin Schoch, (2017). Low-Income Housing in Santa Rosa, Philippines. Retrieved from https://www.unescap.org/sites/def ault/files/PH_1705_Santa%20Rosa _Low%20Income%20House%20Re port.pdf The World Bank Group, (2017). PHILIPPINES URBANIZATION REVIEW. Retrieved from http://documents1.worldbank.org /curated/en/963061495807736752 /pdf/114088-REVISED-PUBLICPhilippines-Urbanization-ReviewFull-Report.pdf
References
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Zoe Nichols, (2020). Combating Poverty in the Philippines. Retrieved from https://borgenproject.org/tag/pov erty-in-the-philippines/