MARKET UPDATE FOR ASEAN+3 October 2013
MARKET UPDATE FOR ASEAN+3 1 October 2013, 17:00 local time SGT (UTC+8) MARKET DEVELOPMENTS
Asian stocks rise as investors weigh U.S. shutdown, Japan tax. Asian stocks rose, paring yesterday’s slump that was the biggest in a month, as investors weighed the impact of a U.S. government shutdown and Japan’s decision to proceed with a sales-tax increase. Across Asia, Thailand stock led the rise and posted a growth of 1.7 percent, followed by Indonesia JCI’s 0.7 percent gain. In Japan, Nikkei 225 gained 0.2 percent.
Ringgit leads Asian advance as dollar weakens on U.S. shutdown. Malaysia’s ringgit rallied, leading gains in Asia, as the dollar weakened on a partial U.S. government shutdown. Sovereign bonds advanced. The ringgit strengthened 0.7 percent to 3.2356 per dollar as of 5:13 p.m. in Kuala Lumpur. Meanwhile, the Yen strengthened 0.5 percent while Indonesia Rupiah and Philippine Peso gained 0.4 percent. Both Singapore Dollar and Thai Baht gained 0.3 percent.
WTI Crude drops a third day as U.S. Government shutdown begins. West Texas Intermediate slid for a third day as part of the U.S. government shut down over a budget stalemate, threatening to slow the economy and reduce demand in the world’s largest oil consumer. Futures dropped as much as 0.5 percent after a 4.9 percent loss last month. A midnight deadline in Washington passed after lawmakers failed to approve a funding bill.
BREAKING NEWS GLOBAL NEWS
US Government shutdown begins as Congress divides on spending (Bloomberg). The U.S. government began its first partial shutdown in 17 years, idling as many as 800,000 federal employees, closing national parks and halting some services after Congress failed to break a partisan deadlock by a midnight deadline. Congressional leaders have scheduled no further negotiations on spending legislation, raising concerns among some lawmakers that the shutdown could bleed into the more consequential fight over how to raise the U.S. debt limit to avoid a first-ever default after Oct. 17.
Euro-Area jobless rate unexpectedly declines as recovery builds (Bloomberg). Euro-area unemployment unexpectedly retreated from a record, as the currency bloc’s economic recovery gained momentum. The jobless rate fell to a revised 12 percent in July from a record 12.1 percent a month earlier, and held at that level in August, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. Economists forecast the rate to remain at 12.1 percent, according to the median of 30 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Unemployment among young people fell to 23.7 percent in August after two months at 23.8 percent.
Italy in disarray as Draghi pledge keeps nation from brink (Bloomberg). Italy’s government is on the verge of collapse and two of its most senior executives have lost the confidence of shareholders. Thanks to Mario Draghi’s promises, bond investors see the turmoil as more of a blip than a crisis. Yields barely budged yesterday even after Prime Minister Enrico Letta spent the weekend fighting Silvio Berlusconi’s efforts to topple his government. Intesa Sanpaolo SpA, Page 1 of 6
Italy’s second biggest bank, replaced its chief executive officer and Telecom Italia SpA CEO Franco Bernabe is preparing to resign.
RBA holds key rate at record-low 2.5% as house prices climb (Bloomberg). Australia’s central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record low, saying earlier cuts are still filtering through the economy and already driving up asset prices. Governor Glenn Stevens and his board kept the overnight cash-rate target at 2.5 percent, the Reserve Bank of Australia said in a statement today in Sydney, as forecast by all 33 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
REGIONAL NEWS
China manufacturing growth Sept. hits 17-month high (Xinhua). China's factory activity set a record high in 17 months in September, an official survey showed, indicating a stable economic rebound. China's purchasing managers' index for the manufacturing sector rose to 51.1 percent in September from 51 percent in August, the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said on Tuesday. It was the third consecutive month for the index to climb month on month and the figure has set a record high since May 2012. Zhang Liqun, researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, said the new data edged up slightly but the growth rate was not sharp, indicating a weak rebound momentum.
Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe says Japan will raise sales tax in April as planned (Kyodo). Prime Minister Abe said Tuesday the government will raise Japan's sales tax rate in April to 8 percent from the current 5 percent as planned, ending nearly a year of public speculation over a tax increase that some experts warn could undermine the country's nascent economic recovery. Abe, meeting with executives from the ruling coalition at his office, also said he intends to provide an economic stimulus package to ease the possible negative impact on businesses and households from the consumption tax hike. "In order to maintain confidence in (the fiscal policy of) Japan and establish a social security system that is sustainable for future generations, I have made a decision to raise the sales tax rate to 8 percent from 5 percent on April 1, 2014," Abe said at the meeting.
Japan big manufacturers' sentiment rises to highest level in 6 years: Tankan (Kyodo). The business confidence index among large Japanese manufacturers increased in September from three months earlier to plus 12, its highest level since December 2007, the Bank of Japan said Tuesday, supporting Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's decision to raise the nation's sales tax in April as planned. The Tankan survey's headline index measuring sentiment among big manufacturers such as carmakers and high-tech firms improved for the third straight quarter, as the yen's weakness lifted exporters' earnings. It was also the highest level since the collapse of U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September 2008 that brought about the global financial crisis.
Laos raises profile at UN General Assembly (Vientiane Times). Addressing the 68th Session of the UN General Assembly (UNGA) in New York on Saturday, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mr Thongloun Sisoulith, said Laos attaches great significance to creating a peaceful environment and safeguarding political stability for national development, with a view to graduating from LDC status. The Lao government has deployed its utmost efforts to pursue a consistent foreign policy and promote international cooperation at all levels. To continue fulfilling its international obligations, the government has presented candidatures for Page 2 of 6
membership in the Human Rights Council for the term 2016-2018 as well as membership in the Executive Board of the UN Development Programme/UN Population Fund (UNFPA) for 20162018.
Myanmar President pointed out systematic management on foreign assistant resources (President Office news). President of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar U Thein Sein delivered an address at the meeting of international grants/loans management central committee at the meeting hall of the Union Government office at the Presidential Palace here today. The President pointed out systematic management on aid, interest-free loan, low interest loan and foreign direct investment for ensuring effective development aid so that more aid and investment will go to the country.
Singapore home prices rise at slowest pace in six quarters (Bloomberg). Singapore home prices increased at the slowest pace in six quarters after the government introduced new loan measures to cool prices in Asia’s second-most expensive housing market. The island-state’s private residential property price index rose 0.4 percent to a record 216.2 points in the three months ended Sept. 30, after it climbed 1 percent in the second quarter, according to preliminary figures released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority today. That’s the smallest gain since the first quarter of 2012, when the index dropped 0.1 percent.
IFIs NEWS (compiled from their websites) IMF- Report: Executive Board Discusses 2013 Low-Income Countries Global Risks and Vulnerabilities
The exercise provides a cross-cutting analysis of the economic vulnerabilities of LICs, delivers a richer coverage of developments in LICs, and provides useful information to other international financial institutions (IFIs) and donors that provide financial resources to LICs. The 2013 report enhances granularity in the presentation of results, focusing on four sub-groups of countries: oil exporters, fragile states, small states, and other (core) LICs as well as additional analysis of frontier LICs that are rapidly integrating into global financial markets. http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2013/pr13376.htm
World Bank- Press Release: Lao PDR Receives US$20 Million from the World Bank to Further Strengthen Poverty Reduction Efforts
The World Bank’s Board of Executive Directors today approved US$20 million in financing for Lao PDR’s Ninth Poverty Reduction Support Operation (PRSO 9). This program will support policy and institutional reforms that enable the sustainable management of revenues from the natural resources sector to deliver improved public services. http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2013/09/30/lao-pdr-receives-us20-millionfrom-world-bank-further-strengthen-poverty-reduction-efforts
Asian Development Bank - Press Release: Myanmar Plans Electricity Expansion with Assistance from ADB, Japan
The Asian Development Bank (ADB), through $2.85 million in grant financing from the Japan Fund for Poverty Reduction (JFPR), will help the Government of Myanmar formulate a long-term energy plan and prepare to expand and upgrade its power grid. http://www.adb.org/news/myanmar-plans-electricity-expansion-assistance-adb-japan FOREIGN CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES
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2012 close China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam
6.23 7.75 9,793.00 86.75 1,064.40 3.06 41.01 1.22 30.59 20,840.00
Previous wk's close 6.12 7.76 11,184.00 98.17 1,110.04 3.28 44.58 1.27 32.15 21,155.00
30-Sep 6.12 7.76 11,406.00 98.27 1,074.64 3.26 43.48 1.26 31.24 21,113.00
1-Oct 6.12 7.75 11,360.00 97.76 1,073.56 3.24 43.31 1.25 31.15 21,115.00
% change -0.01 0.02 0.40 0.52 0.10 0.74 0.39 0.30 0.28 -0.01
2013 YTD (%chg) 1.8 -0.1 -15.0 -10.7 -0.9 -6.2 -5.7 -2.5 -2.6 -1.3
Note: Negative values indicate depreciation and positive values indicate appreciation.
STOCK MARKET INDEX 2012 close China (SSE Composite) Hong Kong SAR (Hang Seng) Indonesia (JCI) Japan (Nikkei 225) Korea (KOSPI 200) Malaysia (FBMKLCI) Philippines (PSEi) Singapore (STI) Thailand (SET) Vietnam (VNINDEX)
China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam
2,269.1 22,656.9 4,316.7 10,395.2 1,997.1 1,689.0 5,812.7 3,167.1 1,391.9 413.7
Previous wk's close 2,098.4 21,731.4 4,195.1 13,388.9 1,926.4 1,727.6 6,075.2 3,028.9 1,294.3 472.7
30-Sep 2,174.7 22,859.9 4,316.2 14,455.8 1,997.0 1,768.6 6,191.8 3,167.9 1,383.2 492.6
OVERNIGHT LENDING RATE (IN %) 30-Sep 1-Oct bps change 4.000 4.000 0.00 0.099 0.099 0.00 5.700 5.700 0.00 0.080 0.068 -1.25 2.500 2.500 0.00 3.000 3.000 0.00 0.637 0.644 0.70 0.052 0.052 0.00 2.500 2.500 0.00 2.517 2.700 18.30
1-Oct 2,174.7 22,859.9 4,345.9 14,484.7 1,998.9 1,769.0 6,197.8 3,181.2 1,406.9 492.2
% change 0.000 0.00 0.69 0.20 0.10 0.02 0.10 0.42 1.71 -0.08
2013 YTD (%chg) -4.2 -1.9 0.0 39.3 -1.6 5.6 5.7 -0.6 0.0 17.7
3-MONTH INTERBANK LENDING RATE (IN %)
30-Sep 4.670 0.386 7.159 0.230 2.650 3.210 0.206 0.374 2.602 4.714
1-Oct 4.670 0.386 7.159 0.229 2.650 3.210 0.145 0.383 2.604 4.743
bps change 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.09 0.00 0.00 -6.10 0.84 0.23 2.90
SOVEREIGN BOND RATES (%, 10-YEAR Sovereign) 2012 close China 3.220 Hong Kong SAR 0.396 Indonesia 4.806 Japan 0.185 Korea 2.980 Malaysia 3.185 Philippines 4.115 Singapore 0.330 Thailand 3.195 Vietnam 9.650 Latest data are available on a one-day lag
Previous wk's close 3.610 2.277 7.980 0.822 3.390 3.699 4.183 2.449 3.700 8.971
27-Sep 4.050 2.193 8.228 0.684 3.440 3.761 3.777 2.378 3.940 8.842
30-Sep 4.050 2.125 8.490 0.688 3.420 3.762 3.844 2.340 3.920 8.930
bps change 0.000 -6.800 26.200 0.400 -2.000 0.100 6.700 -3.800 -2.000 8.800
2013 YTD (bps) 83.000 172.900 368.400 50.300 44.000 57.700 -27.140 201.000 72.500 -72.000
CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP (IN BPS) China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia
27-Sep 83.83 48.41 241.31 62.04 74.22 121.42
30-Sep 88.24 49.40 255.36 64.03 78.16 129.66
bps change 4.41 0.99 14.05 1.99 3.94 8.24
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Philippines Thailand Vietnam
114.50 125.56 268.08
122.21 133.56 276.47
7.71 8.00 8.39
Note: Negative values indicate lower pricing of risk and positive values indicate higher pricing of risk. Latest data are available on a one-day lag
30-Sep Gold Spot (in US$ per ounce) Sources: Bloomberg & Datastream
1-Oct
1,329.0
% change
1,331.0
0.15
CREDIT RATINGS China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam
S&P
Moody's
Fitch
AAAAA BB+ AAA+ ABBBAAA BBB+ BB-
Aa3 Aa1 Baa3 Aa3 Aa3 A3 Ba1 Aaa Baa1 B2
A+ AA+ BBBA+ AAABBBAAA BBB+ B+
INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (END-MONTH, IN USD BILLION)
China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam
31-Jan 3,410.1 304.7 108.8 1,267.3 328.9 140.2 85.3 258.8 181.6 27.8
28-Feb 3,395.4 304.8 105.2 1,258.8 327.4 140.3 83.6 259.1 179.2 28.2
31-Mar 3,442.7 303.8 104.8 1,254.4 327.4 139.7 84.0 258.2 177.8 28.0
30-Apr 3,534.5 306.5 107.3 1,258.0 328.8 140.3 83.2 261.7 177.8 27.2
2013 31-May 3,514.8 305.7 105.1 1,250.2 328.1 141.4 82.0 258.4 175.3 26.6
30-Jun 3,496.7 303.6 98.1 1,238.7 326.4 136.1 81.3 259.8 170.8 n.a
31-Jul n.a 299.9 92.7 1,254.0 329.7 137.8 83.2 261.1 172.9 n.a
31-Aug n.a 303.9 93.0 1,254.2 331.1 134.8 82.9 261.9 172.2 n.a
30-Sep n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a 135.1 n.a n.a 171.2 n.a
Note: Data for China and Vietnam refer to FX reserves
EXTERNAL LIQUIDITY RATIOS*
China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam
Int'l Reserves
3 months imports of goods & services
Short-term external debt
(US$bn)
(US$bn)
(US$bn)
3,496.7 303.9 93.0 1,254.2 331.1 135.1 82.9 261.9 171.2 n.a
523.3 141.5 55.0 79.2 151.4 58.5 17.2 126.5 66.9 31.3
Import cover (Qtrs of imports covered by reserves)
565.7 745.6 46.3 2,052.2 119.6 37.3 9.8 970.0 62.1 10.0
Reserves over short-term debt
6.7 2.1 1.7 15.8 2.2 2.3 4.8 2.1 2.6 -
6.2 0.4 2.0 0.6 2.8 3.6 8.5 0.3 2.8 -
Notes: * Based on latest available data Import cover is computed by dividing international reserves with 3-month worth of imports of goods and services using the latest available data from balance of payments statistics. Short-term debts are liabilities due in 1 year or less; data is as of 1Q 2013, except for Indonesia and Korea, which are as of 2Q 2013, and Vietnam, which is end-2011. For Vietnam, the figure refers to Private Creditor and not short-term debt.
Economies China Japan Japan
DATA RELEASES FOR THE DAY Indicators Period PMI Manufacturing Sep Jobless Rate % Aug Job-To-Applicant Ratio Aug
Last
Previous 51.1 4.1 0.95
51.0 3.8 0.94 Page 5 of 6
South Korea South Korea South Korea South Korea South Korea Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Thailand Thailand
Consumer Price Index (YoY)% Consumer Price Index (MoM)% Core Consumer Price Index(YoY)% Ext Trade - Export (YoY)% Ext Trade - Imports (YoY)% Total Trade Balance (USD mn) Exports (YoY)% Total Imports (YoY)% Inflation (YoY)% Core Inflation (YoY)% Inflation NSA (MoM)% Consumer Price Index (YoY)% Core CPI (YoY)%
Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Aug Aug Aug Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep
0.8 0.2 1.6 -1.5 -3.6 132 -6.3 -5.7 8.4 4.72 -0.35 1.42 0.61
1.3 0.3 1.3 7.7 0.8 -2309 -6.1 6.5 8.79 4.48 1.12 1.59 0.75
SELECTED ECONOMIC RELEASES CALENDAR (30 SEPT - 04 OCT 2013) Expected Release Date
Country
Indicators
Period
10/1/2013
Japan Japan Indonesia Thailand Thailand South Korea South Korea South Korea South Korea South Korea China Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Philippines Hong Kong Hong Kong Indonesia Indonesia Thailand South Korea Thailand HONG KONG Malaysia Malaysia Philippines
Job-To-Applicant Ratio Jobless Rate % Consumer Confidence Index Core CPI (YoY)% Consumer Price Index (YoY)% Consumer Price Index (YoY)% Consumer Price Index (MoM)% Core Consumer Price Index(YoY)% Ext Trade - Export (YoY)% Ext Trade - Imports (YoY)% PMI Manufacturing Total Trade Balance (USD mn) Inflation NSA (MoM)% Exports (YoY)% Core Inflation (YoY)% Total Imports (YoY)% Inflation (YoY)% Budget Deficit/Surplus (PHP bn) Retail Sales - Volume (YoY)% Retail Sales - Value (YoY)% Net Foreign Assets (IDR Tln) Foreign Reserves (USD bn) Consumer Confidence Economic Foreign Exchange Reserve (USD bn) Foreign Reserves (USD bn) Purchasing Managers Index Exports YoY% Imports YoY% Consumer Price Index (YoY)%
Aug Aug Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Aug Sep Aug Sep Aug Sep Aug Aug Aug Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep 27 Sep Aug Aug Sep
10/2/2013 10/3/2013
10/4/2013
The ASEAN+3 Market Update is compiled based on publicly available information only and is for internal use. The interpretation of this document or any information contained or referred to in the document and the consequences which might be caused by such interpretation are not the responsibility of AMRO. The information in this document is provided for information purposes only.
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MARKET UPDATE FOR ASEAN+3 3 October 2013, 17:00 local time SGT (UTC+8) MARKET DEVELOPMENTS
Most Asia stocks rise on China services as investors weigh U.S. talks. Asian stocks rose after a gauge of China’s services industries jumped to a six-month high and as investors watched for progress on ending a budget impasse that has shut down the U.S. government. Thailand SET led the rise and advanced 1.3 percent, followed by Hang Seng’s 1 percent and Indonesia JCI’s 0.7 percent. Philippines PSEi advanced 0.4 percent, boosted by an upgraded rating. Nikkei 225 slid slightly 0.1 percent, Singapore STI and Vietnam VNI dropped 0.2 and 0.4 percent respectively.
Dollar falls to 8-month low versus Euro on shutdown; Yen drops. The dollar slid to the weakest level in eight months versus the euro as the U.S. government’s partial shutdown added to concern that growth will slow and prompt the Federal Reserve to delay tapering monetary stimulus. Against the USD, Malaysia Ringgit gained 1 percent, Philippines gained 0.7 percent, Indonesia Rupiah and Korea won advanced 0.5 and 0.4 percent respectively. On the other hand, Japanese Yen weakened 0.4 percent.
WTI drops after biggest gain in two weeks as oil stockpiles rise. West Texas Intermediate fell after the biggest gain in two weeks as U.S. crude stockpiles increased twice as much as forecast. Brent’s premium to New York oil widened from the narrowest in more than a week. Futures slid as much as 0.5 percent in New York after jumping 2 percent yesterday to the highest price since Sept. 20. U.S. crude inventories climbed by 5.5 million barrels last week, Energy Information Administration data showed. They were forecast to rise by 2.5 million in a Bloomberg News survey.
BREAKING NEWS GLOBAL NEWS
White House meeting fails to end stalemate that led to shutdown (Bloomberg). The first faceto-face talks between President Barack Obama and congressional leaders failed to break the budget logjam as a partial U.S. government shutdown entered its third day. The Oval Office meeting yesterday evening ended with both sides reiterating their positions and the points they’ve been making for days, raising the prospect of a prolonged standoff over the government shutdown and raising the U.S. debt limit. Democrats, including Obama, say Republicans must end the shutdown and raise the debt ceiling as a precondition to talks on broader budgetary disputes. Republicans want to use the fiscal deadlines to extract changes to Obama’s healthcare law.
ECB Draghi said to task Panel to mull bank liquidity (Bloomberg). Mario Draghi has asked a European Central Bank panel to study options for new bank funding measures, as policy makers try to figure out how to deal with any future liquidity shortages, two euro-region central bank officials said. While the ECB president insisted that the institution “stands ready to act according to need,” the governing council agreed that a technical committee should examine the size and maturity of new long-term refinancing operations, as well as other instruments, the officials Page 1 of 6
said yesterday, speaking on condition of anonymity because the matter is confidential. The panel has no set date for a verdict, one official said.
Recovery in Euro zone services sector picks up in September: PMI (Reuters). Markit's Euro zone Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), a monthly survey of businesses, rose to 52.2 in September from August's 50.7, little changed from a preliminary reading of 52.1. Readings above 50 signify growth. Growth in services companies, comprising the vast bulk of the euro zone's private sector, increased at the fastest pace since June 2011, offsetting a slightly slower pace of expansion in manufacturing last month. Germany again led the expansion, while services firms in the bloc's next largest economies - France and Italy - returned to growth after more than a year in the red. Spanish services businesses, however, disappointed slightly, slipping back into contraction after achieving modest growth in August.
REGIONAL NEWS
China proposes establishing Asian infrastructure investment bank (Xinhua). Chinese President Xi Jinping on Wednesday proposed to establish an Asian infrastructure investment bank to promote interconnectivity and economic integration in the region. Xi put forward the proposal during talks here with his Indonesian counterpart, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. Beijing stands ready to offer financial support for infrastructure construction in developing countries in the region, including members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Xi said. The new bank, he added, will cooperate with existing multilateral development banks to make full use of their respective advantages and jointly promote the sustained and stable growth of the Asian economy, Xi said.
Indonesia, China boost economic ties as Xi arrives (Channel News Asia). Beijing and Jakarta signed a series of economic agreements on Wednesday as Chinese President Xi Jinping began a trade-focused trip to Indonesia, his first visit to Southeast Asia since taking power. Like its Asian peers Japan and South Korea, China is seeking to strengthen its presence in the booming Indonesian economy, which has been a leading destination for foreign investment in recent years. During his two-day trip, Xi, who took power in March, will on Thursday become the first foreign leader to address the Indonesian parliament.
Philippine investment-grade climb complete as Moody’s raises (Bloomberg). The Philippines won a rating upgrade from Moody’s Investors Service, completing the nation’s ascent to investment rank as President Benigno Aquino leads a growth resurgence that’s outpacing the rest of Southeast Asia. The rating on Philippine government debt was raised one level to Baa3, Moody’s said in a statement today, citing “robust economic performance,” ongoing fiscal and debt consolidation, political stability and improved governance. The outlook on the rating is positive. Stocks and the peso rose.
TPP countries to waive total ban on fishing subsidies (Kyodo). The 12 countries involved in the Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade negotiations are now planning not to ban fishing subsidies except those that obviously lead to overfishing, negotiation sources said Thursday. The United States has been calling for a general ban on fishing subsidies, but with many countries disagreeing, the members are arranging a limited ban proposed by Japan, the sources said. The move comes as ministers of the TPP countries began their three-day discussions on tariffs and
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other key issues that require political decisions so that their leaders can announce a broad agreement on the pact at a summit next week. IFIs NEWS (compiled from their websites) IMF - Press Release: Concludes 2013 Article IV Mission to Lao P.D.R.
An IMF mission team led by Mr. Ashvin Ahuja visited Vientiane to conduct the 2013 Article IV consultation discussions with the Lao P.D.R. during August 28–September 12. At the conclusion of the mission, Mr. Ahuja issued the following statement: “Since the global financial crisis, the Lao economy has been growing at an average annual rate of 8 percent, supported by brisk credit expansion and robust foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. The country has also made significant progress toward achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). A tightening of macroeconomic policies is urgently needed to reduce vulnerabilities, replenish international reserves and engineer a soft landing. Fiscal policy needs to be put back on a consolidation path during the next few years.” http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2013/pr13383.htm
IMF - Transcript of a Press Conference: the Analytic Chapters of the Global Financial Stability Report
This time around, the two chapters focus on two crucial types of policies: those aimed at reinvigorating credit growth and those that affect bank funding structures, both of which may have long term implications for financial stability. In Chapter 2 the IMF take a close look at the policies in place to restart credit markets. To do this the IMF tried to get under the surface and identify the factors influencing the constraints on bank credit growth. In Chapter 3, the IMF examine how bank funding structures are changing and whether the set of regulatory reforms affecting them are making banks, or more generally the financial system, more stable. http://www.imf.org/external/np/tr/2013/tr100213.htm
World Bank - Press Release: Developing Countries to Receive Over $410 Billion in Remittances in 2013
Remittances to the developing world are expected to grow by 6.3 percent this year to $414 billion and are projected to cross the half-trillion mark by 2016, according to revised estimates and forecasts issued today by the World Bank. India and China alone will represent nearly a third of total remittances to the developing world this year. Remittance volumes to developing countries, as a whole, are projected to continue growing strongly over the medium term, averaging an annual growth rate of 9 percent to reach $540 billion in 2016. http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2013/10/02/developing-countriesremittances-2013-world-bank
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FOREIGN CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES 2012 close China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam
6.23 7.75 9,793.00 86.75 1,064.40 3.06 41.01 1.22 30.59 20,840.00
Previous wk's close 6.12 7.76 11,184.00 98.17 1,110.04 3.28 44.58 1.27 32.15 21,155.00
2-Oct 6.12 7.75 11,357.00 97.36 1,074.04 3.23 43.40 1.25 31.27 21,125.00
3-Oct 6.12 7.75 11,296.00 97.78 1,069.66 3.20 43.11 1.25 31.24 21,125.00
% change 0.01 0.00 0.54 -0.43 0.41 1.02 0.67 -0.08 0.09 0.00
2013 YTD (%chg) 1.8 0.0 -14.5 -10.7 -0.6 -5.0 -5.2 -2.3 -2.9 -1.3
Note: Negative values indicate depreciation and positive values indicate appreciation.
STOCK MARKET INDEX 2012 close China (SSE Composite) Hong Kong SAR (Hang Seng) Indonesia (JCI) Japan (Nikkei 225) Korea (KOSPI 200) Malaysia (FBMKLCI) Philippines (PSEi) Singapore (STI) Thailand (SET) Vietnam (VNINDEX)
China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam
2,269.1 22,656.9 4,316.7 10,395.2 1,997.1 1,689.0 5,812.7 3,167.1 1,391.9 413.7
Previous wk's close 2,098.4 21,731.4 4,195.1 13,388.9 1,926.4 1,727.6 6,075.2 3,028.9 1,294.3 472.7
2-Oct
3-Oct
2,174.7 22,984.5 4,387.6 14,170.5 1,999.5 1,770.4 6,362.3 3,152.6 1,409.0 494.4
2,174.7 23,214.4 4,417.1 14,157.3 1,999.5 1,771.7 6,387.7 3,146.0 1,427.3 492.3
OVERNIGHT LENDING RATE (IN %) 2-Oct 3-Oct bps change 4.000 4.000 0.00 0.101 0.103 0.22 5.697 5.694 -0.36 0.090 0.068 -2.20 2.500 2.500 0.00 3.000 3.000 0.00 0.557 -0.158 -71.50 0.056 0.056 0.00 2.500 2.500 0.00 2.600 2.543 -5.70
% change 0.000 1.00 0.67 -0.09 0.00 0.08 0.40 -0.21 1.30 -0.42
2013 YTD (%chg) -4.2 -0.4 1.6 36.2 -1.6 5.8 9.0 -1.7 1.4 17.7
3-MONTH INTERBANK LENDING RATE (IN %)
2-Oct 4.670 0.386 7.160 0.229 2.660 3.210 0.070 0.393 2.605 4.700
3-Oct 4.670 0.386 7.176 0.229 2.660 3.210 0.033 0.391 2.605 5.175
bps change 0.00 0.00 1.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 -3.70 -0.26 0.08 47.50
SOVEREIGN BOND RATES (%, 10-YEAR Sovereign) 2012 close China 3.220 Hong Kong SAR 0.396 Indonesia 4.806 Japan 0.185 Korea 2.980 Malaysia 3.185 Philippines 4.115 Singapore 0.330 Thailand 3.195 Vietnam 9.650 Latest data are available on a one-day lag
Previous wk's close 3.610 2.277 7.980 0.822 3.390 3.699 4.183 2.449 3.700 8.971
1-Oct 4.050 2.125 8.338 0.664 3.430 3.765 3.856 2.377 3.930 8.862
2-Oct 4.050 2.148 8.178 0.648 3.410 3.752 3.848 2.326 3.820 8.903
bps change 0.000 2.300 -16.000 -1.600 -2.000 -1.300 -0.800 -5.100 -11.000 4.100
2013 YTD (bps) 83.000 175.200 337.200 46.300 43.000 56.700 -26.740 199.600 62.500 -74.700
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CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP (IN BPS) 1-Oct 88.24 49.41 255.37 64.03 78.16 129.66 122.21 133.56 276.47
China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam
2-Oct 85.79 48.88 248.82 62.28 75.20 130.63 119.32 132.11 274.22
bps change -2.45 -0.53 -6.55 -1.75 -2.96 0.97 -2.89 -1.45 -2.25
Note: Negative values indicate lower pricing of risk and positive values indicate higher pricing of risk. Latest data are available on a one-day lag
2-Oct Gold Spot (in US$ per ounce) Sources: Bloomberg & Datastream
3-Oct
1,316.0
% change
1,313.2
-0.22
CREDIT RATINGS China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam
S&P
Moody's
Fitch
AAAAA BB+ AAA+ ABBBAAA BBB+ BB-
Aa3 Aa1 Baa3 Aa3 Aa3 A3 Baa3 Aaa Baa1 B2
A+ AA+ BBBA+ AAABBBAAA BBB+ B+
INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (END-MONTH, IN USD BILLION)
China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam
31-Jan 3,410.1 304.7 108.8 1,267.3 328.9 140.2 85.3 258.8 181.6 27.8
28-Feb 3,395.4 304.8 105.2 1,258.8 327.4 140.3 83.6 259.1 179.2 28.2
31-Mar 3,442.7 303.8 104.8 1,254.4 327.4 139.7 84.0 258.2 177.8 28.0
30-Apr 3,534.5 306.5 107.3 1,258.0 328.8 140.3 83.2 261.7 177.8 27.2
2013 31-May 3,514.8 305.7 105.1 1,250.2 328.1 141.4 82.0 258.4 175.3 26.6
30-Jun 3,496.7 303.6 98.1 1,238.7 326.4 136.1 81.3 259.8 170.8 n.a
31-Jul n.a 299.9 92.7 1,254.0 329.7 137.8 83.2 261.1 172.9 n.a
31-Aug n.a 303.9 93.0 1,254.2 331.1 134.8 82.9 261.9 172.2 n.a
30-Sep n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a 135.1 n.a n.a 171.2 n.a
Note: Data for China and Vietnam refer to FX reserves
EXTERNAL LIQUIDITY RATIOS*
China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam
Int'l Reserves
3 months imports of goods & services
Short-term external debt
(US$bn)
(US$bn)
(US$bn)
3,496.7 303.9 93.0 1,254.2 331.1 135.1 82.9 261.9 171.2 n.a
523.3 141.5 55.0 79.2 151.4 58.5 17.2 126.5 66.9 31.3
565.7 745.6 46.3 2,052.2 119.6 37.3 9.8 970.0 62.1 10.0
Import cover (Qtrs of imports covered by reserves)
Reserves over short-term debt
6.7 2.1 1.7 15.8 2.2 2.3 4.8 2.1 2.6 -
6.2 0.4 2.0 0.6 2.8 3.6 8.5 0.3 2.8 -
Notes: * Based on latest available data Import cover is computed by dividing international reserves with 3-month worth of imports of goods and services using the latest available data from balance of payments statistics. Short-term debts are liabilities due in 1 year or less; data is as of 1Q 2013, except for Indonesia and Korea, which are as of 2Q 2013, and Vietnam, which is end-2011. For Vietnam, the figure refers to Private Creditor and not short-term debt.
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Economies Hong Kong Hong Kong Thailand
DATA RELEASES FOR THE DAY Indicators Period Retail Sales - Volume (YoY)% Aug Retail Sales - Value (YoY)% Aug Consumer Confidence Economic Sep
Last 7.2 8.1 67.9
Previous 8.9 9.5 69.5
SELECTED ECONOMIC RELEASES CALENDAR (30 SEPT - 04 OCT 2013) Expected Release Date
Country
Indicators
Period
10/1/2013
Japan Japan Indonesia Thailand Thailand South Korea South Korea South Korea South Korea South Korea China Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Hong Kong Hong Kong Thailand South Korea Thailand HONG KONG Malaysia Malaysia Philippines
Job-To-Applicant Ratio Jobless Rate % Consumer Confidence Index Core CPI (YoY)% Consumer Price Index (YoY)% Consumer Price Index (YoY)% Consumer Price Index (MoM)% Core Consumer Price Index(YoY)% Ext Trade - Export (YoY)% Ext Trade - Imports (YoY)% PMI Manufacturing Total Trade Balance (USD mn) Inflation NSA (MoM)% Exports (YoY)% Core Inflation (YoY)% Total Imports (YoY)% Inflation (YoY)% Retail Sales - Volume (YoY)% Retail Sales - Value (YoY)% Consumer Confidence Economic Foreign Exchange Reserve (USD bn) Foreign Reserves (USD bn) Purchasing Managers Index Exports YoY% Imports YoY% Consumer Price Index (YoY)%
Aug Aug Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Aug Sep Aug Sep Aug Sep Aug Aug Sep Sep Sep 27 Sep Aug Aug Sep
10/3/2013
10/4/2013
The ASEAN+3 Market Update is compiled based on publicly available information only and is for internal use. The interpretation of this document or any information contained or referred to in the document and the consequences which might be caused by such interpretation are not the responsibility of AMRO. The information in this document is provided for information purposes only.
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