Market update for asean 3 september 2013 total

MARKET UPDATE FOR ASEAN+3 September 2013

MARKET UPDATE FOR ASEAN+3 20 September 2013, 17:00 local time SGT (UTC+8) MARKET DEVELOPMENTS 

Asian Stocks Fall on Profit Taking but Still End for the Week on a Four-Month High. Most Asian stocks fell, led by declines of 1.86 and 1.34 percent in Indonesia JCI and Philippine PSEi, respectively. FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index rose 0.5 percent. Singapores Straits Times Index fell 0.1 percent. Global funds bought $494 million more stocks than they sold so far this week in Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand, the markets where data through yesterday is available. Markets in Hong Kong, China, and South Korea were shut for holidays.



Asian Currencies Return Mixed Results as Emerging Market Affected by Negative Sentiment from India. Half of monitored currencies marginally rose led by the Thai Baht and Japanes Yen, while major gains of the Indonesian Rupiah and Malaysian Ringgit were partially consolidated, as each fell by 1.86 and 0.5 percent, respectively. However, Asian currencies were still set for the biggest weekly gain in a year, except for the yen which tumbled to its weakest level in almost four years against the euro.



WTI Poised for Second Weekly Drop as Libyan Oil Output Returns. West Texas Intermediate headed for a second weekly loss as Libya’s oil output recovered and the threat of military strikes against Syria receded, damping concern that Middle East supplies may be disrupted. WTI for October delivery, which expires today, was down 21 cents at $106.18 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 9:13 a.m. London time. The more-actively traded November contract dropped 5 cents to $105.81. The volume of all futures traded was about 43 percent below the 100-day average.

BREAKING NEWS GLOBAL NEWS 

India's new central bank chief orders surprise rate hike (AFP). India's new central bank governor marked his first policy meeting Friday with a bold decision to hike interest rates, wrong-footing analysts and leading to sharp falls on the stock market. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) chief Raghuram Rajan, who had warned he was prepared to be unpopular, ordered a rise in the benchmark interest rate from 7.25 to 7.50 per cent at a mid-quarter policy review in India's financial centre Mumbai.



US Home resales surprise jump in August (Bloomberg). Sales of previously owned US homes unexpectedly rose in August to the highest level in more than six years as buyers rushed to lock in interest rates before they rise further. Purchases climbed 1.7 per cent to a 5.48 million annual rate, the highest since February 2007, according to figures from the National Association of Realtors. The data reflect some transactions that had begun a month or two earlier, when buyers were trying to get loans when mortgage rates were near record lows.



Merkel seen as shoo-in for a third term on Sunday (AFP). Pollsters say all roads appear to lead to Mrs Merkel, often called the world's most powerful woman, winning re-election. The vote, in which nearly 62 million Germans are called to the ballot box, will instead turn on whether her current centre-right coalition with the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) can hold onto power.

Poll numbers suggest it will be a close call. If they fail to muster a ruling majority, Mrs Merkel would be forced into the arms of her traditional rivals, the Social Democrats, in a grand coalition. Despite the potential for a grand coalition with the social democrats, this is not viewed Page 1 of 6

as leading to significant policy changes vis-à-vis the Eurozone or be a shift away from Ms Merkel’s step-by-step approach to addressing the crisis.

REGIONAL NEWS 

EU, Singapore conclude far-reaching trade deal (Reuters). The European Union and Singapore submitted for approval on Friday one of the world's most comprehensive free trade agreements, which the EU sees as a stepping stone towards a wider deal with southeast Asia.

Subject to approval in Singapore and by the 28 EU member states and the European Parliament, the agreement should enter into force in late 2014 or early 2015. The European Union sees a free trade deal as opening the door to a deal with other members of the 10nation Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which has set a goal of economic integration by 2015.



Japan land prices fall at slowest pace in 5 years (Reuters). Japan's land prices fell the least since the global financial crisis in the year to July 1, while commercial land in the three biggest cities rose in value for the first time in the same period, the latest signs that deflation is easing its stubborn grip on the country. Land prices nationwide fell 1.9 per cent, narrowing from the previous year's 2.7 per cent decline and the smallest drop since 2008, a government survey showed on Thursday. This brings Japan closer to ending 22 years of falling land prices - a legacy of the country's massive 1980s asset bubble. The gradual narrowing of land-price declines is good news for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, whose top priority is ending Japan's long battle with deflation and spurring sustained growth.



Outflows lead to BoP deficit in August for the Philippines (Business World). The Philippines posted a balance of payments (BoP) deficit in August, the second time this year, which the central bank chief yesterday attributed to capital outflows arising from uncertainty over the US Federal Reserve’s stimulus program. The BoP deficit last month was $318 million, a reversal from July’s $1.099-billion surplus that was a six-month high. It was also a reversal from the $582-million surplus seen in August last year. The result brought the year-to-date BoP tally to a $3.359-billion surplus, slightly lower than the central bank’s $4.4-billion forecast for the year.

Foreign portfolio investments posted a net outflow of $441.85 million in August, a reversal from the net inflows of $895.27 a month earlier and the $387.39 million recorded August last year.



Foreign brokerages reduce manpower in Korea (Korea Times). Foreign brokerage houses operating in Korea have cut their manpower this year, following poor profits amid the economic slump, the first such curtailment since 2009. According to the Korea Financial Investment Association (KFIA), 20 foreign stock companies here had 1,627 workers as of June, 5.5 percent down from last year’s 1,721. A foreign brokerage in Korea is a firm in which foreigners hold more than half the shares. This is the first decrease since the KFIA began collecting related data in 2009. The number of workers rose from 1,332 in 2009 to 1,612 in 2010 and 1,699 in 2011.

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

Savings banks in Korea to be allowed to sell funds (Korea Times).Savings banks will soon be allowed to sell fund products and provide instalment financing services. The decision is part of a set of measures unveiled to support savings banks, which are reeling from the aftermath of fullscaled restructuring efforts by the financial regulator. The number of savings banks dropped to 91 at the end of June this year from 105 in June 2010 with their assets plunging to 43.8 trillion won from 86.3 trillion won in the same period, according to FSC. The amount of total deposits and loans also dropped by 53.4 percent and 51.7 percent, respectively, to 36.9 trillion won and 29 trillion won as of the end of June.



Tax reform looms large for Cambodian government (Phnom Penh Post). Cambodia's General Department of Taxation has laid out a series of reforms it says are needed as the 2015 deadline looms for the Asean Economic Community, a single market for trade and development.

Strengthening tax collection to increase revenue while nurturing an attractive investment climate is the balance that must be struck, said the department’s director general Kong Vibol.

From tax education for small and medium-sized enterprises to reviews of investor taxation laws and better legal means for pursuing tax dodgers, the government has a broad range of policy implications that it hopes to achieve in a very short time frame.

IFIs NEWS (compiled from their websites) World Bank – Speech: Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Finance Ministers’ Meeting: The Global and Regional Outlook  The World Bank has publicised the speech made by Ms Sri Mulyani Indrawati, Managing Director of the World Bank at the APEC Finance Ministers’ Meeting: The Global and Regional Outlook held in Nusa Dua, Bali, Indonesia on September 20, 2013. http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/speech/2013/09/20/remarks-world-bank-managingdirector-sri-mulyani-indrawati-apec-finance-ministers-meeting WTO – Press Release: WTO sees gradual recovery in coming months despite cut in trade forecasts  World trade growth in 2013 and 2014 is likely to be slower than previously forecast. WTO economists now predict 2013 growth of 2.5% (down from the 3.3% forecast in April) and 4.5% in 2014 (down from 5.0%), but they say conditions for improved trade are gradually falling into place. “There is a message for the WTO in this,” said WTO Director-General Roberto Azevêdo.

“The past two years of sluggish trade growth reinforce the need to make progress in the multilateral negotiations.” http://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres13_e/pr694_e.htm FOREIGN CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES 2012 close China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

6.23 7.75 9,793.00 86.75 1,064.40 3.06 41.01 1.22 30.59 20,840.00

Previous wk's close 6.12 7.76 11,184.00 98.17 1,110.04 3.28 44.58 1.27 32.15 21,155.00

18-Sep

19-Sep

6.12 7.75 11,324.00 97.94 1,081.46 3.23 43.53 1.25 31.28 21,145.00

6.12 7.75 10,847.00 98.84 1,070.62 3.15 43.06 1.24 30.96 21,125.00

% change 0.00 0.00 4.40 -0.91 1.01 2.69 1.10 0.18 1.06 0.09

2013 YTD (%chg) 1.8 0.0 -11.0 -11.6 -0.7 -3.6 -5.1 -1.9 -2.0 -1.3

Note: Negative values indicate depreciation and positive values indicate appreciation.

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STOCK MARKET INDEX 2012 close China (SSE Composite) Hong Kong SAR (Hang Seng) Indonesia (JCI) Japan (Nikkei 225) Korea (KOSPI 200) Malaysia (FBMKLCI) Philippines (PSEi) Singapore (STI) Thailand (SET) Vietnam (VNINDEX)

China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

2,269.1 22,656.9 4,316.7 10,395.2 1,997.1 1,689.0 5,812.7 3,167.1 1,391.9 413.7

Previous wk's close 2,098.4 21,731.4 4,195.1 13,388.9 1,926.4 1,727.6 6,075.2 3,028.9 1,294.3 472.7

18-Sep 2,191.9 23,117.5 4,463.3 14,505.4 2,005.6 1,771.4 6,334.0 3,193.9 1,439.1 474.3

OVERNIGHT LENDING RATE (IN %) 18-Sep 19-Sep bps change 3.570 3.570 0.00 0.091 0.094 0.36 5.650 5.654 0.36 0.093 0.090 -0.25 2.500 2.500 0.00 3.000 3.000 0.00 -0.018 -0.199 -18.10 0.026 0.026 0.00 2.500 2.500 0.00 2.500 2.500 0.00

19-Sep 2,191.9 23,502.5 4,670.7 14,766.2 2,005.6 1,793.8 6,511.7 3,250.1 1,487.1 476.1

% change 0.000 1.67 4.65 1.80 0.00 1.26 2.81 1.76 3.33 0.39

2013 YTD (%chg) -3.4 0.8 7.5 42.0 -1.3 7.1 11.1 1.5 5.7 13.8

3-MONTH INTERBANK LENDING RATE (IN %)

18-Sep 4.658 0.386 7.102 0.230 2.650 3.200 -0.199 0.374 2.602 5.100

19-Sep 4.658 0.386 7.118 0.230 2.650 3.200 -0.295 0.374 2.602 5.100

bps change 0.00 0.00 1.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 -9.60 0.00 0.00 0.00

SOVEREIGN BOND RATES (%, 10-YEAR Sovereign) 2012 close China 3.220 Hong Kong SAR 0.396 Indonesia 4.806 Japan 0.185 Korea 2.980 Malaysia 3.185 Philippines 4.115 Singapore 0.330 Thailand 3.195 Vietnam 9.650 Latest data are available on a one-day lag

Previous wk's close 3.610 2.277 7.980 0.822 3.390 3.699 4.183 2.449 3.700 8.971

17-Sep 4.130 2.307 8.107 0.723 3.480 3.758 3.735 2.449 4.295 8.846

18-Sep 4.050 2.329 8.247 0.717 3.480 3.758 3.767 2.373 4.220 8.872

bps change -8.000 2.200 14.000 -0.600 0.000 0.000 3.200 -7.600 -7.500 2.600

2013 YTD (bps) 83.000 193.300 344.100 53.200 50.000 57.300 -34.840 204.300 102.500 -77.800

CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP (IN BPS) China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam

17-Sep 82.34 50.34 239.21 61.16 72.97 121.45 118.38 122.44 270.28

18-Sep 80.37 50.35 224.94 61.16 70.49 117.57 115.49 118.56 265.86

bps change -1.97 0.01 -14.27 0.00 -2.48 -3.88 -2.89 -3.88 -4.42

Note: Negative values indicate lower pricing of risk and positive values indicate higher pricing of risk.

Latest data are available on a one-day lag

18-Sep Gold Spot (in US$ per ounce) Sources: Bloomberg & Datastream

1,363.8

19-Sep 1,365.9

% change 0.16

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CREDIT RATINGS China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

S&P

Moody's

Fitch

AAAAA BB+ AAA+ ABBBAAA BBB+ BB-

Aa3 Aa1 Baa3 Aa3 Aa3 A3 Ba1 Aaa Baa1 B2

A+ AA+ BBBA+ AAABBBAAA BBB+ B+

INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (END-MONTH, IN USD BILLION) 2012 31-Dec 31-Jan 28-Feb 31-Mar China 3,311.6 3,410.1 3,395.4 3,442.7 Hong Kong SAR 317.3 304.7 304.8 303.8 Indonesia 112.8 108.8 105.2 104.8 Japan 1,268.1 1,267.3 1,258.8 1,254.4 Korea 327.0 328.9 327.4 327.4 Malaysia 139.7 140.2 140.3 139.7 Philippines 83.8 85.3 83.6 84.0 Singapore 259.3 258.8 259.1 258.2 Thailand 181.6 181.6 179.2 177.8 Vietnam 25.2 27.8 28.2 28.0

2013 30-Apr 31-May 3,534.5 3,514.8 306.5 305.7 107.3 105.1 1,258.0 1,250.2 328.8 328.1 140.3 141.4 83.2 82.0 261.7 258.4 177.8 175.3 27.2 26.6

30-Jun 3,496.7 303.6 98.1 1,238.7 326.4 136.1 81.3 259.8 170.8 n.a

31-Jul n.a 299.9 92.7 1,254.0 329.7 137.8 83.2 261.1 172.9 n.a

31-Aug n.a 303.9 93.0 1,254.2 331.1 134.8 83.2 261.9 172.2 n.a

Note: Data for China and Vietnam refer to FX reserves

EXTERNAL LIQUIDITY RATIOS* Int'l Reserves

China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

(US$bn) 3,496.7 303.9 93.0 1,254.2 331.1 134.8 83.2 261.9 172.2 26.6

3 months imports of goods & services (US$bn) 523.3 141.5 55.0 79.2 151.4 58.5 17.2 126.5 66.9 31.3

Short-term external debt (US$bn) 565.7 745.6 46.3 2,052.2 119.6 37.3 9.8 968.3 62.1 10.0

Import cover (Qtrs of imports covered by reserves) 6.7 2.1 1.7 15.8 2.2 2.3 4.8 2.1 2.6 -

Reserves over short-term debt 6.2 0.4 2.0 0.6 2.8 3.6 8.5 0.3 2.8 -

Notes: * Based on latest available data Import cover is computed by dividing international reserves with 3-month worth of imports of goods and services using the latest available data from balance of payments statistics. Short-term debts are liabilities due in 1 year or less; data is as of 1Q 2013, except for Indonesia and Korea, which are as of 2Q 2013, and Vietnam, which is end-2011. For Vietnam, the figure refers to Private Creditor and not short-term debt.

DATA RELEASES FOR THE DAY Economies Philippines Thailand

Indicators Budget Deficit/Surplus (PHP bn) Foreign Reserves (USD bn)

Period Aug Sep 13

Last

Previous

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SELECTED ECONOMIC RELEASES CALENDAR (16 - 20 SEPT 2013) Expected Release Date

Country

Indicators

Period

9/16/2013

China

Actual FDI (YoY)%

Aug

Philippines

Overseas Remittances (YoY)%

Jul

Singapore

Non-oil Domestic Exports (YoY)%

Aug

Singapore

Electronic Exports (YoY)%

Aug

Hong Kong

Unemployment Rate SA%

Aug

South Korea

Producer Price Index (YoY)%

Aug

9/18/2013

Malaysia

CPI YoY %

Aug

9/19/2013

Japan

All Industry Activity Index (MoM) %

Jul

Japan

Merchnds Trade Exports YoY %

Aug

Japan

Merchnds Trade Balance Total (JPY bn)

Aug

Philippines

Budget Deficit/Surplus (PHP bn)

Aug

Thailand

Foreign Reserves (USD bn)

Sep 13

9/17/2013

9/20/2013

The ASEAN+3 Market Update is compiled based on publicly available information only and is for internal use. The interpretation of this document or any information contained or referred to in the document and the consequences which might be caused by such interpretation are not the responsibility of AMRO. The information in this document is provided for information purposes only.

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MARKET UPDATE FOR ASEAN+3 23 September 2013, 17:00 local time SGT (UTC+8) MARKET DEVELOPMENTS 

China Stock Index Boosted by Improvements in Manufacturing. The Shanghai Stock Index gained1.3 percent after flash estimates of the HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics’ purchasing managers index for China was released today, showing it rose to 51.2, a six-month high. Korea’s KOSPI also recorded gains as overseas funds bought more local equities than they sold for the 19th straight session as Korean markets reopened after a three-day holiday. Trading volume in Hong Kong was below average after a storm shut the market for half the day.

The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index slid less than 0.1 percent to 469.02 as of 4:04 p.m. in Hong Kong, as most ASEAN indexes ended lower. Meanwhile, Japanese markets were closed for a holiday.



Rupiah Drops Most in a Month as Debt Payments Fuel Dollar Demand. Indonesia’s rupiah fell the most in a month amid speculation local companies were boosting dollar purchases to meet month-end debt and import payments. The currency weakened 3.5 percent to 11,445 per dollar as of 5:00 p.m. Singapore time. Meanwhile, the Korea won continued to rise on inflows, and has been noted as Asia’s best performing currency this quarter.



WTI Fluctuates as China Expansion Counters Syria Impasse. West Texas Intermediate crude fluctuated as signs that manufacturing in China expanded the most since March countering concerns that Syria’s conflict will spread and disrupt oil supplies. WTI for November delivery was at $104.62 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 13 cents, as of 9:35 a.m. London time. The October contract, which expired on Sept. 20, closed at $104.67, the lowest settlement since Aug. 21. The volume of all futures traded was about 28 percent less than the 100-day average. Prices have gained 8.5 percent this quarter and 12 percent so far this year.

BREAKING NEWS GLOBAL NEWS 

Merkel romps to victory but faces tough coalition choices (Reuters). Angela Merkel won a landslide personal victory in Germany's general election on Sunday, but her conservatives appeared just short of the votes needed to rule on their own and may have to convince leftist rivals to join a coalition government. Partial results put support for Merkel's conservative bloc on 42 per cent, their strongest score since 1990, the year of German unification, and a ringing endorsement of her steady leadership during the euro zone crisis. The outcome left the centreright chancellor tantalisingly close to an absolute majority in the Bundestag lower house of parliament, a feat achieved only once in 1957 by Konrad Adenauer, the father of the West German federal republic. If Merkel were to rule alone, which looks unlikely, she would have to do so with a tiny majority, leaving her vulnerable to rebel eurosceptics in her Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its sister party, the Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU). The alternative could be to revive a 'grand coalition' with the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), who came a distant second with 25.5 per cent, their second worst result in the post-war era.



Italy’s Economy minister threatens to quit if Italy flouts deficit limit (Reuters). Italian Economy Minister Fabrizio Saccomanni will resign if the fragile coalition government flouts European Union deficit spending limits in favour of tax cuts, he told Corriere della Sera newspaper on Sunday. The departure of Saccomanni, a former high ranking Bank of Italy official who is not Page 1 of 6

affiliated to a political party, would be a blow to Italy's credibility with financial markets as it battles to emerge from its longest recession in six decades. Italy's accounts are heading toward overshooting the EU deficit limit this year, Mr Saccomanni said on Friday, just months after the country was taken off a black list for running excessive budget gaps in the past. While the minister said he would do all it takes to keep the deficit below the 3 per cent of output ceiling, senior coalition members have pledged to go ahead with tax cuts amid a growing sense that a national election may be just a few months away. 

UK workers worry less about jobs (Reuters). British workers are feeling less worried about losing their jobs than at any time in the last four and a half years as the country's economic recovery picks up speed, a survey showed on Monday. An index measuring job security rose to 46.8 in September, up two points from August but still below the neutral level of 50, according to the poll by financial data firm Markit. The reading was the highest since Markit began the survey in February 2009. A broader gauge of how households feel about their finances - the Markit Household Finance Index - was unchanged at 40.8, not far off its highest level since 2009 but also below the neutral level. For every respondent who felt their finances improved, three said they had deteriorated, Markit said.

REGIONAL NEWS 

China September HSBC PMI hits 6-month high of 51.2, adds to economic momentum (Reuters). Growth in China's factory sector accelerated to a six-month high in September, a preliminary survey showed on Monday, as stronger domestic and foreign demand added to recent signs of a tentative turnaround in the world's second-largest economy. The flash HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) climbed to 51.2 last month from August's 50.1, hitting a high not seen since March. A breakdown of the data showed ten of 11 sub-indices rose in September. The flash PMI gives the earliest reading of China's monthly economic performance, and should cheer investors worried about a sharp economic slowdown after a previous rebound in activity proved short-lived. Notably, new export orders jumped to a ten-month peak of 50.8, up sharply from August's 47.2. It was the first time in six months that exports - an Achilles' heel in China's economy - had shown growth in the PMI. A PMI reading over 50 points indicates expanding activity while one below that suggests contraction. Monday's PMI joins other data earlier this month suggesting China's economy has bottomed out, with factory activity growing at its fastest in 17 months in August, comfortably surpassing expectations.



Thai Aug exports rose provisional 4% y-o-y (Reuters). Thailand's exports rose a provisional 4 per cent in August compared with a year before and expanded 1 percent in the first eight months of 2013, Commerce Minister Niwatthamrong Bunsongphaisan told reporters on Monday. Exports dropped on an annual basis from May to July and the economy fell into a technical recession in the first half of this year. The ministry is due to release the trade data for August this week.



Thai Farmers Hooked on Subsidies Test Yingluck (Bloomberg). Thailand’s decision to expand subsidies for rice and rubber farmers to quell protests is undermining efforts to control rising debt, even as governments in neighboring Malaysia and Indonesia cut back support programs.

The government will pay 21.2 billion baht ($681 million) directly to rubber farmers’ bank accounts to offset falling prices, up from 10 billion baht agreed on earlier, after violent clashes between the police and growers demanding subsidies. The administration also promised to buy rice at above-market rates for another crop year, at a cost of 270 billion baht. The payouts may slow Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra’s plan to balance the budget by 2017 and contain the ratio of debt to gross domestic product that rose to 44.3 percent in June this year from 38.2 percent in end-2008. A business sentiment index dropped in July to the lowest level in more Page 2 of 6

than a year and consumer confidence fell to a nine-month low on concern political risk is rising as the economy weakens. 

Prime retail rents unchanged but resale price growth slows in Singapore (Business Times).

Average rental values of prime retail space in Singapore remained unchanged but the pace of growth in resale prices of prime retail space continued to slow in the third quarter 2013, property consultants DTZ said. The average rental value of prime retail space in the other city areas halted its decline in Q3, after falling by 0.7 per cent quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in Q1 and 0.3 per cent in Q2 this year. This followed the completion of some of the asset enhancement initiatives at Marina Square and Suntec City, which have increased shopper traffic in the area.



Cambodian King appoints Hun Sen as Prime Minister for new five-year term (Xinhua).

Cambodian King Norodom Sihamoni on Monday appointed incumbent Prime Minister Hun Sen as the prime minister for the new five-year-term government after his ruling party won the July 28 election, according to a royal decree. "The Prime Minister of Cambodia has duties to prepare the members of the Cambodian government in order to ask for the adoption of confidence from the National Assembly," said the royal decree. According to the official schedule, Prime Minister Hun Sen will be sworn in for another five-year term on Tuesday.



Singapore's inflation edges up to 2 percent in August (Business Times). Inflation in Singapore continued to rise for the fourth consecutive month in August, inching up slightly to 2 per cent last month from July's 1.9 per cent. This was on account of stronger increases in the costs of accommodation, food, and services, which were partly offset by the smaller gain in private road transport costs. Overall imported inflation is expected to remain generally subdued for the year.

However, domestic cost pressures are expected to persist amid continuing tightness in the labour market, and pass-through from accumulated cost increases to prices of consumer services could pick up slightly.

IFIs NEWS (compiled from their websites) ADBI – Working Paper: “Financial Health and Firm Productivity: Firm-level Evidence from Viet Nam”  The ADBI has publicised the captioned working paper. “This paper empirically investigates whether financial health shores up firm productivity. It presents productivity as another driving factor in translating financial development into real economic progress. The authors' empirical framework employs Levinsohn and Petrin's (2003) semi-parametric estimation of total factor productivity (TFP) using firm-level panel data during 2002–2008, and incorporates financial health variables into conventional determinants of firm productivity. The findings suggest that liquidity and access to external credit boosts firm productivity, with the latter particularly imperative for exporting and/or importing firms.” http://www.adbi.org/files/2013.09.20.wp434.financial.health.firm.prod.viet.nam.pdf

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FOREIGN CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES 2012 close China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

6.23 7.75 9,793.00 86.75 1,064.40 3.06 41.01 1.22 30.59 20,840.00

Previous wk's close 6.12 7.76 11,184.00 98.17 1,110.04 3.28 44.58 1.27 32.15 21,155.00

20-Sep

23-Sep

6.12 7.75 11,041.00 99.36 1,075.34 3.17 43.05 1.25 31.11 21,120.00

6.12 7.75 11,445.00 98.97 1,074.15 3.20 43.27 1.25 31.18 21,110.00

% change 0.00 -0.01 -3.53 0.39 0.11 -1.05 -0.50 0.00 -0.22 0.05

2013 YTD (%chg) 1.8 0.0 -15.7 -11.8 -1.0 -5.1 -5.6 -2.5 -2.7 -1.3

Note: Negative values indicate depreciation and positive values indicate appreciation.

STOCK MARKET INDEX 2012 close China (SSE Composite) Hong Kong SAR (Hang Seng) Indonesia (JCI) Japan (Nikkei 225) Korea (KOSPI 200) Malaysia (FBMKLCI) Philippines (PSEi) Singapore (STI) Thailand (SET) Vietnam (VNINDEX)

China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

2,269.1 22,656.9 4,316.7 10,395.2 1,997.1 1,689.0 5,812.7 3,167.1 1,391.9 413.7

Previous wk's close 2,098.4 21,731.4 4,195.1 13,388.9 1,926.4 1,727.6 6,075.2 3,028.9 1,294.3 472.7

20-Sep 2,191.9 23,502.5 4,583.8 14,742.4 2,005.6 1,801.8 6,424.5 3,237.5 1,486.8 477.2

OVERNIGHT LENDING RATE (IN %) 20-Sep 23-Sep bps change 3.570 4.160 59.00 0.094 0.094 -0.07 5.661 5.661 0.07 0.090 0.090 0.00 2.500 2.500 0.00 3.000 3.000 0.00 0.583 0.575 -0.80 0.025 0.025 0.00 2.500 2.500 0.00 2.500 2.467 -3.30

23-Sep 2,221.0 23,371.5 4,538.3 14,742.4 2,009.4 1,796.2 6,477.9 3,212.7 1,448.7 479.1

% change 1.332 -0.56 -0.99 0.00 0.19 -0.31 0.83 -0.77 -2.56 0.40

2013 YTD (%chg) -2.1 0.3 4.4 41.8 -1.1 7.3 10.5 0.3 2.9 14.5

3-MONTH INTERBANK LENDING RATE (IN %)

20-Sep 4.658 0.386 7.138 0.230 2.650 3.200 -0.296 0.374 2.602 5.100

23-Sep 4.672 0.386 7.144 0.230 2.650 3.200 0.045 0.374 2.602 4.683

bps change 1.33 0.07 0.64 0.00 0.00 0.00 34.10 0.00 0.00 -41.70

SOVEREIGN BOND RATES (%, 10-YEAR Sovereign) 2012 close China 3.220 Hong Kong SAR 0.396 Indonesia 4.806 Japan 0.185 Korea 2.980 Malaysia 3.185 Philippines 4.115 Singapore 0.330 Thailand 3.195 Vietnam 9.650 Latest data are available on a one-day lag

Previous wk's close 3.610 2.277 7.980 0.822 3.390 3.699 4.183 2.449 3.700 8.971

19-Sep 4.050 2.194 8.186 0.679 3.480 3.748 3.766 2.168 4.040 8.846

20-Sep 4.050 2.194 7.884 0.696 3.480 3.716 3.721 2.255 4.000 8.854

bps change 0.000 0.000 -30.200 1.700 0.000 -3.200 -4.500 8.700 -4.000 0.800

2013 YTD (bps) 83.000 179.800 307.800 51.100 50.000 53.100 -39.440 192.500 80.500 -79.600

Page 4 of 6

CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP (IN BPS) 19-Sep 74.47 46.80 201.09 57.20 65.56 96.58 98.06 98.04 251.69

China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam

20-Sep 76.44 47.81 205.61 59.19 67.54 99.00 103.86 100.46 256.07

bps change 1.97 1.01 4.52 1.99 1.98 2.42 5.80 2.42 4.38

Note: Negative values indicate lower pricing of risk and positive values indicate higher pricing of risk.

Latest data are available on a one-day lag

20-Sep Gold Spot (in US$ per ounce) Sources: Bloomberg & Datastream

1,325.9

23-Sep 1,327.6

% change 0.13

CREDIT RATINGS China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

S&P

Moody's

Fitch

AAAAA BB+ AAA+ ABBBAAA BBB+ BB-

Aa3 Aa1 Baa3 Aa3 Aa3 A3 Ba1 Aaa Baa1 B2

A+ AA+ BBBA+ AAABBBAAA BBB+ B+

INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (END-MONTH, IN USD BILLION) 2012 31-Dec 31-Jan 28-Feb 31-Mar China 3,311.6 3,410.1 3,395.4 3,442.7 Hong Kong SAR 317.3 304.7 304.8 303.8 Indonesia 112.8 108.8 105.2 104.8 Japan 1,268.1 1,267.3 1,258.8 1,254.4 Korea 327.0 328.9 327.4 327.4 Malaysia 139.7 140.2 140.3 139.7 Philippines 83.8 85.3 83.6 84.0 Singapore 259.3 258.8 259.1 258.2 Thailand 181.6 181.6 179.2 177.8 Vietnam 25.2 27.8 28.2 28.0

2013 30-Apr 31-May 3,534.5 3,514.8 306.5 305.7 107.3 105.1 1,258.0 1,250.2 328.8 328.1 140.3 141.4 83.2 82.0 261.7 258.4 177.8 175.3 27.2 26.6

30-Jun 3,496.7 303.6 98.1 1,238.7 326.4 136.1 81.3 259.8 170.8 n.a

31-Jul n.a 299.9 92.7 1,254.0 329.7 137.8 83.2 261.1 172.9 n.a

31-Aug n.a 303.9 93.0 1,254.2 331.1 134.8 83.2 261.9 172.2 n.a

Note: Data for China and Vietnam refer to FX reserves

EXTERNAL LIQUIDITY RATIOS* Int'l Reserves

China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

(US$bn) 3,496.7 303.9 93.0 1,254.2 331.1 134.8 83.2 261.9 172.2 26.6

3 months imports of goods & services (US$bn) 523.3 141.5 55.0 79.2 151.4 58.5 17.2 126.5 66.9 31.3

Short-term external debt (US$bn) 565.7 745.6 46.3 2,052.2 119.6 37.3 9.8 968.3 62.1 10.0

Import cover (Qtrs of imports covered by reserves) 6.7 2.1 1.7 15.8 2.2 2.3 4.8 2.1 2.6 -

Reserves over short-term debt 6.2 0.4 2.0 0.6 2.8 3.6 8.5 0.3 2.8 -

Page 5 of 6

Notes: * Based on latest available data Import cover is computed by dividing international reserves with 3-month worth of imports of goods and services using the latest available data from balance of payments statistics. Short-term debts are liabilities due in 1 year or less; data is as of 1Q 2013, except for Indonesia and Korea, which are as of 2Q 2013, and Vietnam, which is end-2011. For Vietnam, the figure refers to Private Creditor and not short-term debt.

DATA RELEASES FOR THE DAY Economies Hong Kong China Singapore

Indicators CPI - Composite Index (YoY)% HSBC/Markit Flash Mfg PMI CPI - Composite Index (YoY)%

Period Aug Sep Aug

Last

SELECTED ECONOMIC RELEASES CALENDAR (23 - 27 SEPT 2013) Expected Release Date Country Indicators 9/23/2013 Hong Kong CPI - Composite Index (YoY)% China HSBC/Markit Flash Mfg PMI Singapore CPI - Composite Index (YoY)% Malaysia Foreign Reserves (USD bn) 9/24/2013 Vietnam CPI (YoY) % Hong Kong Bal of Paymts - Current A/C (HKD bn) Hong Kong Bal of Paymts - Overall (HKD bn) 9/25/2013 Philippines Trade Balance (USD mn) Philippines Total Imports (YoY)% 9/26/2013 South Korea SK Consumer Confidence Singapore Industrial Production YoY% Hong Kong Exports YoY% Hong Kong Imports YoY% Hong Kong Trade Balance (HKD bn) 9/27/2013 South Korea Current Account in (USD mn) Japan National CPI Ex Food, Energy YoY % Japan National CPI YoY % Thailand Foreign Reserves (USD bn)

Previous 4.5 51.2 2.0

6.9 50.1 1.9

Period Aug Sep Aug Sep 13 Sep 2Q 2Q Jul Jul Sep Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Sep 20

The ASEAN+3 Market Update is compiled based on publicly available information only and is for internal use. The interpretation of this document or any information contained or referred to in the document and the consequences which might be caused by such interpretation are not the responsibility of AMRO. The information in this document is provided for information purposes only.

Page 6 of 6

MARKET UPDATE FOR ASEAN+3 24 September 2013, 17:00 local time SGT (UTC+8) MARKET DEVELOPMENTS 

Asia stocks fall from four-month high amid U.S. budget talks. Asian stocks fell from a fourmonth high amid a political showdown in Washington over the U.S. budget and as investors examined speeches from Federal Reserve officials for clues on monetary policy. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.7 percent to 140.27 as of 4:40 p.m. in Hong Kong. Japan’s Topix index slid 0.3 percent and South Korea’s Kospi index fell 0.1 percent. Singapore’s Straits Times Index fell 0.03 percent and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index retreated 0.8 percent. China’s Shanghai Composite Index slid 0.6 percent. European shares, the euro and major government bonds were all broadly stable.



The dollar remained lower after a two-day slide versus the yen. The dollar was little changed at 98.80 yen as of 6:30 a.m. in London, after falling 0.6 percent in the previous two days. The yen strengthened to ¥99.12 against the dollar, compared with ¥98.85 late Monday and ¥99.33 late Friday. The rupiah dropped to 11,473 against the dollar as the greenback rebounded against Southeast Asian currencies this week.



WTI trades near six-week low as Middle East supply concern eases. WTI for November delivery was at $103.52 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 7 cent, at 2:45 p.m. Singapore time. The contract dropped $1.08 to $103.59 yesterday, capping a three-day losing streak. Brent crude held steady near $108 a barrel. Gold snapped a two-day decline on speculation that demand may strengthen before China’s Golden Week holiday as lower prices lure buyers. Silver, platinum and palladium increased.

BREAKING NEWS GLOBAL NEWS 

Draghi says ECB is ready to offer more long-term loans (Bloomberg). European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said he’s ready to deploy another long-term refinancing operation to provide funds to Europe’s banking system if needed. In his response to questions from lawmakers in the European Parliament in Brussels, Draghi said while repayment of central bank credit is “certainly a sign of normalization, the resulting reduction in excess liquidity can reinforce upward pressures on term money market rates.”



US economy not ready for tapering, says Fed official (Financial Times). One of the US Federal Reserve’s most senior officials talked down the health of the world’s largest economy, saying it does not have enough momentum to justify slowing down the central bank’s $85bn monthly asset purchases. “The economy has not picked up forward momentum and a 2 percent growth rate – even if sustained – might not be sufficient to generate further improvement in labour market conditions,” said William Dudley, president of the New York Fed and vice-chair of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee.



German business morale improves in September (Reuters). German business morale improved for a fifth consecutive month in September, albeit less than expected, in a further sign that Europe's largest economy is staging a recovery after a weak start to the year. The Munich-based Ifo think tank said on Tuesday its business climate index, based on a monthly survey of 7,000 firms, rose to 107.7, compared with a revised reading of 107.6 in August.

Page 1 of 5

REGIONAL NEWS 

China central bank's $14 bln fund injection eases cash crunch fears (Reuters). China's central bank conducted its largest one-day fund injection in seven months on Tuesday, easing fears of quarter-end cash crunch such as the one that roiled global markets in late June. The People's Bank of China injected 88 billion yuan ($14.4 billion) into the money markets through six-day reverse bond repurchase agreements on Tuesday, its largest one-day injection since the week before the Spring Festival holiday in February.



Indonesia to boost bilateral swaps with China, Korea Agreements (Bloomberg). Indonesia will boost bilateral swap agreements to almost $40 billion by signing deals with China and South Korea and increasing an existing agreement with Japan, as Southeast Asia’s biggest economy battles a slumping currency. The country may sign an agreement with China next month when President Xi Jinping visits Indonesia, Industry Minister M.S. Hidayat told reporters in Jakarta after meeting with the central bank today.



Malaysia remains a forerunner in global sukuk (New Straits Times). Malaysia remains a forerunner in global sukuk with the global outstanding sukuk amounting to over US$148 billion as at June 2013, which represents 60.4 percent of the total global sukuk. Deputy Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin said the number reflected Malaysia's rapid growth in sukuk compared with its number of only US$1.5 billion of global sukuk in 2001. He said credit must be given to Bank Negara Malaysia, the Securities Commission Malaysia, Shariah scholars and the Islamic financial industry community for their efforts to bring Malaysia's Islamic finance marketplace to the current level of sophistication.



Cambodian rice exports double in the first seven months (Cambodia Daily). Cambodia exported 221,027 tons of milled rice in the first seven months of the year, an increase of 103 percent compared to the same period last year, according to figures from the Ministry of Commerce. Officials and rice experts said the increase in exports was thanks to rising demand for rice on world markets coupled with increased investment in rice milling. Figures from the ministry also show that the value of the exported rice over the seven-month period totaled $149.6 million, a rise of 96 percent compared with the previous year.

IFIs NEWS (compiled from their websites) IMF – Press Release: “Statement at the Conclusion of an IMF Staff Visit to the Philippines”  An IMF mission led by Ms Rachel van Elkan visited Manila during September 17−20. The following is an excerpt of the statement made by Ms van Elkan at the conclusion of the visit: “Brisk economic activity in the Phillipines continued into 2013, underpinned by dynamic private and public demand. After growing 6.8 percent in 2012, the economy accelerated further in the first half of 2013 to 7.6 percent on robust consumption and investment, while external demand was subdued. In 2013, growth is expected to remain strong at 6¾ percent, easing to about 6 percent in 2014, which is still somewhat faster than potential output.” http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2013/pr13354.htm

Page 2 of 5

FOREIGN CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES 2012 close China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

6.23 7.75 9,793.00 86.75 1,064.40 3.06 41.01 1.22 30.59 20,840.00

Previous wk's close 6.12 7.76 11,184.00 98.17 1,110.04 3.28 44.58 1.27 32.15 21,155.00

23-Sep

24-Sep

6.12 7.75 11,445.00 98.85 1,074.15 3.20 43.28 1.25 31.19 21,110.00

6.12 7.75 11,473.00 99.12 1,072.32 3.21 43.43 1.25 31.30 21,118.00

% change 0.02 0.00 -0.24 -0.27 0.17 -0.49 -0.35 -0.38 -0.35 -0.04

2013 YTD (%chg) 1.9 0.0 -15.9 -11.9 -0.8 -5.6 -5.9 -2.7 -3.1 -1.3

Note: Negative values indicate depreciation and positive values indicate appreciation.

STOCK MARKET INDEX 2012 close China (SSE Composite) Hong Kong SAR (Hang Seng) Indonesia (JCI) Japan (Nikkei 225) Korea (KOSPI 200) Malaysia (FBMKLCI) Philippines (PSEi) Singapore (STI) Thailand (SET) Vietnam (VNINDEX)

China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

2,269.1 22,656.9 4,316.7 10,395.2 1,997.1 1,689.0 5,812.7 3,167.1 1,391.9 413.7

Previous wk's close 2,098.4 21,731.4 4,195.1 13,388.9 1,926.4 1,727.6 6,075.2 3,028.9 1,294.3 472.7

23-Sep 2,221.0 23,371.5 4,562.9 14,742.4 2,009.4 1,796.4 6,477.9 3,214.3 1,436.7 479.1

OVERNIGHT LENDING RATE (IN %) 23-Sep 24-Sep bps change 4.160 3.840 -32.00 0.094 0.099 0.57 5.661 5.664 0.29 0.090 0.090 0.00 2.500 2.500 0.00 3.000 3.000 0.00 0.575 1.006 43.10 0.029 0.029 0.00 2.500 2.500 0.00 2.475 2.533 5.80

24-Sep 2,207.5 23,179.0 4,460.4 14,732.6 2,007.1 1,790.3 6,461.4 3,213.3 1,423.8 482.8

% change -0.608 -0.82 -2.25 -0.07 -0.11 -0.34 -0.26 -0.03 -0.89 0.78

2013 YTD (%chg) -2.7 -0.6 2.6 41.7 -1.2 6.9 10.2 0.4 1.2 15.4

3-MONTH INTERBANK LENDING RATE (IN %)

23-Sep 4.672 0.386 7.144 0.230 2.650 3.200 0.045 0.374 2.602 4.683

24-Sep 4.673 0.386 7.148 0.230 2.650 3.200 0.180 0.374 2.602 5.000

bps change 0.14 -0.07 0.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 13.50 0.00 0.00 31.70

SOVEREIGN BOND RATES (%, 10-YEAR Sovereign) 2012 close China 3.220 Hong Kong SAR 0.396 Indonesia 4.806 Japan 0.185 Korea 2.980 Malaysia 3.185 Philippines 4.115 Singapore 0.330 Thailand 3.195 Vietnam 9.650 Latest data are available on a one-day lag

Previous wk's close 3.610 2.277 7.980 0.822 3.390 3.699 4.183 2.449 3.700 8.971

20-Sep 4.050 2.194 7.884 0.696 3.480 3.716 3.721 2.255 4.000 8.854

23-Sep 4.020 2.244 7.859 0.696 3.400 3.716 3.721 2.398 4.010 8.821

bps change -3.000 5.000 -2.500 0.000 -8.000 0.000 0.000 14.300 1.000 -3.300

2013 YTD (bps) 80.000 184.800 305.300 51.100 42.000 53.100 -39.440 206.800 81.500 -82.900

Page 3 of 5

CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP (IN BPS) 20-Sep 76.44 47.81 205.61 59.19 67.54 99.00 103.86 100.46 256.07

China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam

23-Sep 81.37 48.89 217.55 60.18 72.98 105.38 107.73 107.31 263.93

bps change 4.93 1.08 11.94 0.99 5.44 6.38 3.87 6.85 7.86

Note: Negative values indicate lower pricing of risk and positive values indicate higher pricing of risk.

Latest data are available on a one-day lag

23-Sep Gold Spot (in US$ per ounce) Sources: Bloomberg & Datastream

1,322.7

24-Sep 1,318.4

% change -0.33

CREDIT RATINGS China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

S&P

Moody's

Fitch

AAAAA BB+ AAA+ ABBBAAA BBB+ BB-

Aa3 Aa1 Baa3 Aa3 Aa3 A3 Ba1 Aaa Baa1 B2

A+ AA+ BBBA+ AAABBBAAA BBB+ B+

INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (END-MONTH, IN USD BILLION) 2012 31-Dec 31-Jan 28-Feb 31-Mar China 3,311.6 3,410.1 3,395.4 3,442.7 Hong Kong SAR 317.3 304.7 304.8 303.8 Indonesia 112.8 108.8 105.2 104.8 Japan 1,268.1 1,267.3 1,258.8 1,254.4 Korea 327.0 328.9 327.4 327.4 Malaysia 139.7 140.2 140.3 139.7 Philippines 83.8 85.3 83.6 84.0 Singapore 259.3 258.8 259.1 258.2 Thailand 181.6 181.6 179.2 177.8 Vietnam 25.2 27.8 28.2 28.0

2013 30-Apr 31-May 3,534.5 3,514.8 306.5 305.7 107.3 105.1 1,258.0 1,250.2 328.8 328.1 140.3 141.4 83.2 82.0 261.7 258.4 177.8 175.3 27.2 26.6

30-Jun 3,496.7 303.6 98.1 1,238.7 326.4 136.1 81.3 259.8 170.8 n.a

31-Jul n.a 299.9 92.7 1,254.0 329.7 137.8 83.2 261.1 172.9 n.a

31-Aug n.a 303.9 93.0 1,254.2 331.1 134.8 83.2 261.9 172.2 n.a

Note: Data for China and Vietnam refer to FX reserves

EXTERNAL LIQUIDITY RATIOS* Int'l Reserves

China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

(US$bn) 3,496.7 303.9 93.0 1,254.2 331.1 134.8 83.2 261.9 172.2 26.6

3 months imports of goods & services (US$bn) 523.3 141.5 55.0 79.2 151.4 58.5 17.2 126.5 66.9 31.3

Short-term external debt (US$bn) 565.7 745.6 46.3 2,052.2 119.6 37.3 9.8 968.3 62.1 10.0

Import cover (Qtrs of imports covered by reserves) 6.7 2.1 1.7 15.8 2.2 2.3 4.8 2.1 2.6 -

Reserves over short-term debt 6.2 0.4 2.0 0.6 2.8 3.6 8.5 0.3 2.8 -

Notes: * Based on latest available data

Page 4 of 5

Import cover is computed by dividing international reserves with 3-month worth of imports of goods and services using the latest available data from balance of payments statistics. Short-term debts are liabilities due in 1 year or less; data is as of 1Q 2013, except for Indonesia and Korea, which are as of 2Q 2013, and Vietnam, which is end-2011. For Vietnam, the figure refers to Private Creditor and not short-term debt.

Economies Vietnam Hong Kong Hong Kong

DATA RELEASES FOR THE DAY Indicators Period CPI (YoY) % Sep Bal of Paymts - Current A/C (HKD bn) 2Q Bal of Paymts - Overall (HKD bn) 2Q

Last

Previous 6.30 -2.48 25.43

SELECTED ECONOMIC RELEASES CALENDAR (23 - 27 SEPT 2013) Expected Release Date Country Indicators 9/23/2013 Hong Kong CPI - Composite Index (YoY)% China HSBC/Markit Flash Mfg PMI Singapore CPI - Composite Index (YoY)% Malaysia Foreign Reserves (USD bn) 9/24/2013 Vietnam CPI (YoY) % Hong Kong Bal of Paymts - Current A/C (HKD bn) Hong Kong Bal of Paymts - Overall (HKD bn) 9/25/2013 Philippines Trade Balance (USD mn) Philippines Total Imports (YoY)% 9/26/2013 South Korea SK Consumer Confidence Singapore Industrial Production YoY% Hong Kong Exports YoY% Hong Kong Imports YoY% Hong Kong Trade Balance (HKD bn) 9/27/2013 South Korea Current Account in (USD mn) Japan National CPI Ex Food, Energy YoY % Japan National CPI YoY % Thailand Foreign Reserves (USD bn)

7.50 -9.54 16.40

Period Aug Sep Aug Sep 13 Sep 2Q 2Q Jul Jul Sep Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Sep 20

The ASEAN+3 Market Update is compiled based on publicly available information only and is for internal use. The interpretation of this document or any information contained or referred to in the document and the consequences which might be caused by such interpretation are not the responsibility of AMRO. The information in this document is provided for information purposes only.

Page 5 of 5

MARKET UPDATE FOR ASEAN+3 25 September 2013, 17:00 local time SGT (UTC+8) MARKET DEVELOPMENTS 

Most Asian stocks fall as U.S. confidence declines. Most Asian stocks fell, paring the biggest monthly advance since January 2012 for the regional benchmark index, after U.S. consumer confidence slumped in September to a four-month low. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.1 percent to 140.38 as of 5:10 p.m. in Hong Kong. Japan’s Nekkei index slid 0.8 percent and South Korea’s Kospi index lost 0.5 percent. Singapore’s Straits Times Index declined 0.3 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 0.1 percent and China’s Shanghai Composite lost 0.4 percent.



WTI crude snaps four-day loss on forecast U.S. stockpiles shrank. WTI crude for November delivery advanced as much as 61 cents to $103.74 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $103.61 at 2:57 p.m. in Singapore. Futures slid 4.6 percent over the previous four sessions. The volume of all futures traded was 41 percent below the 100-day average. Brent crude oil futures climbed above $109 a barrel as investors remained sceptical whether relations between the United States and Iran would thaw amid new talks over the OPEC nation's nuclear program.



Yen held gains versus most of its major peers. The Yen advances as stocks in Asia and the U.S. dropped amid concern that budget talks in Washington risk a federal government shutdown, sparking demand for haven currencies. The yen rose 0.2 percent to 98.53 per dollar. The U.S. currency was little changed at $1.3482 per euro from $1.3474 yesterday, when it gained 0.1 percent. The euro weakened 0.1 percent to 132.92 yen.

BREAKING NEWS GLOBAL NEWS 

U.S. home prices up, but slip in confidence could be a concern (Reuters). U.S. home prices slowed their rate of gains in July and a dip in consumer confidence this month underscored the potential for higher borrowing costs and a sluggish economy to dent a housing market recovery. The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas rose 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis and data from the U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency showed U.S. home prices rose 1 percent in July from June. Since May, homebuyers have been hit with rising interest rates on speculation the U.S. Federal Reserve could soon pull back on crisis-era stimulus measures, slowing house price gains.



Fed lets smaller banks delay new standards in stress test (Bloomberg). Smaller U.S. banks won’t have to meet all of the new capital rules during the next round of Federal Reserve stress tests as regulators gave them more time to adapt to the tougher standards. While the biggest banks, with total assets of $50 billion or more, must adhere to the Basel III rules finalized in the U.S. in July, lenders with $10 billion to $50 billion will get an extra year, the Fed said today in a statement. The rules apply to tests that will cover nine quarters starting Oct. 1. Allowing smaller banks to use current capital rules should give them “time to adjust their internal systems,” the Fed said.



Top EU banks have Basel capital shortfall of 70 billion euros (Reuters). The top 42 banks in the European Union would need an extra 70.4 billion euros ($95 billion) of capital to comply Page 1 of 5

with new rules that take full effect in 2019, the bloc's banking watchdog said on Wednesday.

Markets and regulators have been putting pressure on banks to move early to comply with the new global Basel III accord being phased in, to dispel any doubts about their ability to thrive and encourage investors to buy their bonds and shares. The European Banking Authority (EBA) published its latest update, estimating that by the end of 2012 the 42 banks' capital shortfall had been cut by 29.1 billion euros compared with six months before that when it released its previous report.

REGIONAL NEWS 

Prime Minister Abe says Japan economy now for sure on a path of solid growth (Bloomberg).

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said his country’s economy is “for sure now on a solid growth and recovery path.” Speaking in an interview on a Canadian television, Prime Minister Abe said that his government “will make a solid and robust set of measures to support and promote this growth path.” He also said that efforts are being made to conclude negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement “by the end of this year,” and that Japan wants to step up talks on an economic partnership with Canada.



Singapore seen spending $8 billion on ports as support falls (Bloomberg). Singapore plans to almost double its container port capacity after Shanghai overtook the nation to become the world’s busiest harbor, part of Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s push for an economic and popular revival. The government is spending at least S$8.8 million ($7 million) this fiscal year on the project, which involves moving terminals to free 1,000 hectares for development and building a larger facility at Tuas in the southwest.



Laos pursues rail link with China (ANN/Vientiane Times). The government of Lao PDR will turn its attention to building the US$7 billion Boten-Vientiane railway, to link the Lao capital with the Chinese border, according to the government spokesperson. Speaking at a media conference following the government's open meeting, Ms Bounpheng Mounphosay said the five-day meeting had adopted an infrastructure development strategy on land, air and water transportation. Regarding to rail development, the strategy prioritises the development of a rail network to connect with others in the region and sub-region. “Our particular focus is to build a rail link between Boten and Vientiane,” Ms Bounpheng told the conference. Ms Bounpheng's announcement comes shortly before the planned visit to China by President Choummaly Sayasone.



Thai cabinet to consider duty cut (Bangkok Post). A proposal to cut import duty on luxury products to 5 percent from 30 percent is set to go before the cabinet for approval by the end of next month, finance permanent secretary Areepong Bhoocha-oom said. However, Somchai Sujjapongse, director-general of the Finance Ministry's Fiscal Policy Office (FPO), said the government could put the issue on the back burner, as such items could be included in in Asean-EU free trade agreement negotiations. Mr Areepong said if the tax cut wins the cabinet's nod, it will be implemented in time for the peak tourism season. Mr Areepong early this month floated the idea of scrapping import duties on luxury goods such as watches, clothing, perfumes and cosmetics by year-end to help the country compete with Singapore and Hong Kong as a shopping paradise. The tax cut is also a measure to boost economic growth, as domestic consumption, private investment and exports remain weak.

Page 2 of 5

IFIs NEWS (compiled from their websites) IMF – Speech: The Triple Challenge Facing the Global Economy



The IMF has published the speech made by Ms Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the IMF at the High-Level Forum on Sustainable Development held at the United Nations in New York on September 24, 2013. http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2013/092413.htm

World Bank – Press Release: “Turning lights on in Myanmar”



The World Bank will support the installation of a modern, high-efficiency power plant in Mon State, as part of Myanmar’s power expansion plan and the cornerstone of the World Bank Group’s support for Myanmar’s energy sector. The project will replace aging gas turbines with new units, which will produce 250 percent more electricity with the same amount of gas and reduce emissions. The Bank’s Board of Executive Directors approved a US$140 million interestfree credit from the International Development Association (IDA), the Bank’s fund for the poorest, to fund the project. http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2013/09/24/turning-lights-on-in-myanmar

FOREIGN CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES 2012 close China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

6.23 7.75 9,793.00 86.75 1,064.40 3.06 41.01 1.22 30.59 20,840.00

Previous wk's close 6.12 7.76 11,184.00 98.17 1,110.04 3.28 44.58 1.27 32.15 21,155.00

24-Sep

25-Sep

6.12 7.75 11,473.00 98.75 1,072.32 3.21 43.43 1.25 31.31 21,120.00

6.12 7.75 11,488.00 98.53 1,077.23 3.22 43.43 1.26 31.34 21,120.00

% change 0.00 -0.01 -0.13 0.22 -0.46 -0.24 0.00 -0.07 -0.10 0.00

2013 YTD (%chg) 1.9 0.0 -16.0 -11.4 -1.3 -5.8 -5.9 -2.8 -3.2 -1.3

Note: Negative values indicate depreciation and positive values indicate appreciation.

STOCK MARKET INDEX 2012 close China (SSE Composite) Hong Kong SAR (Hang Seng) Indonesia (JCI) Japan (Nikkei 225) Korea (KOSPI 200) Malaysia (FBMKLCI) Philippines (PSEi) Singapore (STI) Thailand (SET) Vietnam (VNINDEX)

China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines

2,269.1 22,656.9 4,316.7 10,395.2 1,997.1 1,689.0 5,812.7 3,167.1 1,391.9 413.7

Previous wk's close 2,098.4 21,731.4 4,195.1 13,388.9 1,926.4 1,727.6 6,075.2 3,028.9 1,294.3 472.7

24-Sep 2,207.5 23,179.0 4,460.4 14,732.6 2,007.1 1,792.5 6,461.4 3,211.8 1,417.8 482.8

OVERNIGHT LENDING RATE (IN %) 24-Sep 25-Sep bps change 3.840 3.900 6.00 0.099 0.099 0.00 5.664 5.664 0.00 0.090 0.090 0.00 2.500 2.500 0.00 3.000 3.000 0.00 1.006 1.381 37.50

25-Sep 2,198.5 23,209.6 4,406.8 14,620.5 1,998.1 1,784.1 6,420.4 3,203.2 1,419.6 486.2

% change -0.408 0.13 -1.20 -0.76 -0.45 -0.47 -0.63 -0.27 0.13 0.70

2013 YTD (%chg) -3.1 -0.4 1.4 40.6 -1.6 6.5 9.5 0.0 0.9 16.2

3-MONTH INTERBANK LENDING RATE (IN %)

24-Sep 4.673 0.386 7.148 0.230 2.650 3.200 0.180

25-Sep 4.672 0.386 7.152 0.230 2.650 3.200 0.377

bps change -0.16 0.00 0.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 19.70

Page 3 of 5

Singapore Thailand Vietnam

0.017 2.500 2.533

0.017 2.500 2.600

0.00 0.00 6.70

0.374 2.602 5.000

0.374 2.602 5.200

0.00 0.00 20.00

SOVEREIGN BOND RATES (%, 10-YEAR Sovereign) 2012 close China 3.220 Hong Kong SAR 0.396 Indonesia 4.806 Japan 0.185 Korea 2.980 Malaysia 3.185 Philippines 4.115 Singapore 0.330 Thailand 3.195 Vietnam 9.650 Latest data are available on a one-day lag

Previous wk's close 3.610 2.277 7.980 0.822 3.390 3.699 4.183 2.449 3.700 8.971

23-Sep 4.020 2.244 7.859 0.696 3.400 3.716 3.721 2.398 4.010 8.821

24-Sep

2013 YTD (bps) 80.000 180.500 313.100 49.300 42.000 54.700 -40.940 204.800 68.500 -81.800

bps change

4.020 2.201 7.937 0.678 3.400 3.732 3.706 2.378 3.880 8.832

0.000 -4.300 7.800 -1.800 0.000 1.600 -1.500 -2.000 -13.000 1.100

CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP (IN BPS) China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam

23-Sep 81.37 48.89 217.55 60.18 72.98 105.38 107.73 107.31 263.93

24-Sep 88.24 49.37 236.42 62.52 78.40 114.14 114.50 117.53 271.83

bps change 6.87 0.48 18.87 2.34 5.42 8.76 6.77 10.22 7.90

Note: Negative values indicate lower pricing of risk and positive values indicate higher pricing of risk.

Latest data are available on a one-day lag

24-Sep Gold Spot (in US$ per ounce) Sources: Bloomberg & Datastream

1,323.3

25-Sep 1,323.1

% change -0.01

CREDIT RATINGS China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

S&P

Moody's

Fitch

AAAAA BB+ AAA+ ABBBAAA BBB+ BB-

Aa3 Aa1 Baa3 Aa3 Aa3 A3 Ba1 Aaa Baa1 B2

A+ AA+ BBBA+ AAABBBAAA BBB+ B+

INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (END-MONTH, IN USD BILLION) 2012 31-Dec 31-Jan 28-Feb 31-Mar China 3,311.6 3,410.1 3,395.4 3,442.7 Hong Kong SAR 317.3 304.7 304.8 303.8 Indonesia 112.8 108.8 105.2 104.8 Japan 1,268.1 1,267.3 1,258.8 1,254.4 Korea 327.0 328.9 327.4 327.4 Malaysia 139.7 140.2 140.3 139.7 Philippines 83.8 85.3 83.6 84.0 Singapore 259.3 258.8 259.1 258.2 Thailand 181.6 181.6 179.2 177.8 Vietnam 25.2 27.8 28.2 28.0

2013 30-Apr 31-May 3,534.5 3,514.8 306.5 305.7 107.3 105.1 1,258.0 1,250.2 328.8 328.1 140.3 141.4 83.2 82.0 261.7 258.4 177.8 175.3 27.2 26.6

30-Jun 3,496.7 303.6 98.1 1,238.7 326.4 136.1 81.3 259.8 170.8 n.a

31-Jul n.a 299.9 92.7 1,254.0 329.7 137.8 83.2 261.1 172.9 n.a

31-Aug n.a 303.9 93.0 1,254.2 331.1 134.8 83.2 261.9 172.2 n.a

Page 4 of 5

Note: Data for China and Vietnam refer to FX reserves

EXTERNAL LIQUIDITY RATIOS* Int'l Reserves

China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

(US$bn) 3,496.7 303.9 93.0 1,254.2 331.1 134.8 83.2 261.9 172.2 26.6

3 months imports of goods & services (US$bn) 523.3 141.5 55.0 79.2 151.4 58.5 17.2 126.5 66.9 31.3

Short-term external debt (US$bn) 565.7 745.6 46.3 2,052.2 119.6 37.3 9.8 968.3 62.1 10.0

Import cover (Qtrs of imports covered by reserves) 6.7 2.1 1.7 15.8 2.2 2.3 4.8 2.1 2.6 -

Reserves over short-term debt 6.2 0.4 2.0 0.6 2.8 3.6 8.5 0.3 2.8 -

Notes: * Based on latest available data Import cover is computed by dividing international reserves with 3-month worth of imports of goods and services using the latest available data from balance of payments statistics. Short-term debts are liabilities due in 1 year or less; data is as of 1Q 2013, except for Indonesia and Korea, which are as of 2Q 2013, and Vietnam, which is end-2011. For Vietnam, the figure refers to Private Creditor and not short-term debt.

Economies Philippines Philippines

DATA RELEASES FOR THE DAY Indicators Period Trade Balance (USD mn) Jul Total Imports (YoY)% Jul

Last

SELECTED ECONOMIC RELEASES CALENDAR (23 - 27 SEPT 2013) Expected Release Date Country Indicators 9/23/2013 Hong Kong CPI - Composite Index (YoY)% China HSBC/Markit Flash Mfg PMI Singapore CPI - Composite Index (YoY)% Malaysia Foreign Reserves (USD bn) 9/24/2013 Vietnam CPI (YoY) % Hong Kong Bal of Paymts - Current A/C (HKD bn) Hong Kong Bal of Paymts - Overall (HKD bn) 9/25/2013 Philippines Trade Balance (USD mn) Philippines Total Imports (YoY)% 9/26/2013 South Korea SK Consumer Confidence Singapore Industrial Production YoY% Hong Kong Exports YoY% Hong Kong Imports YoY% Hong Kong Trade Balance (HKD bn) 9/27/2013 South Korea Current Account in (USD mn) Japan National CPI Ex Food, Energy YoY % Japan National CPI YoY % Thailand Foreign Reserves (USD bn)

Previous -649 8.7

-370 -4.8

Period Aug Sep Aug Sep 13 Sep 2Q 2Q Jul Jul Sep Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Sep 20

The ASEAN+3 Market Update is compiled based on publicly available information only and is for internal use. The interpretation of this document or any information contained or referred to in the document and the consequences which might be caused by such interpretation are not the responsibility of AMRO. The information in this document is provided for information purposes only.

Page 5 of 5

MARKET UPDATE FOR ASEAN+3 26 September 2013, 17:00 local time SGT (UTC+8) MARKET DEVELOPMENTS 

Asian stocks erased losses as Japanese shares rebounded. After a weak start, Japan's Nikkei erased all its losses to be up 1 percent amid speculation Japan’s government will study a corporate tax cut. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.2 percent to 140.67 as of 4:14 p.m. in Hong Kong, recouping an earlier decline of as much as 0.7 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index retreated 0.4 percent and China’s Shanghai Composite declined 1.9 percent. Singapore’s Straits Times Index fell 0.4 percent South Korea’s Kospi index rose 0.5 percent.



Yen snaps 4-day gain and won strengthened to near an eight-month high. The yen dropped 0.3 percent to 98.69 per dollar and 0.46 percent to 133.89 per euro. The won advanced 0.2 percent to 1,075.19 per dollar in Seoul, after yesterday’s 0.5 percent drop. The U.S. currency was little changed at $1.3515 per euro, following yesterday’s 0.4 percent decline.



WTI trades near 12-week low as supply rises while demand slips. WTI crude for November delivery was at $102.52 a barrel, down 14 cents on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract dropped 47 cents to $102.66 yesterday, the lowest settlement since July 3. The volume of all futures traded was 47 percent below the 100-day average. Prices are up 6.2 percent this quarter and 12 percent higher in 2013. Brent for November settlement slid 4 cents to $108.28 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Prices fell 32 cents to $108.32 a barrel yesterday.

BREAKING NEWS GLOBAL NEWS 

Spain may deepen labor overhaul to reduce jobless (Bloomberg). Spain’s government may deepen the overhaul of labor laws that prompted a general strike last year after taking advice from the OECD, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said. Speaking in an interview, Prime Minister Rajoy said the government is assessing the impact of the 2012 overhaul and will submit the review to the OECD. The Paris-based organization has repeatedly proposed more radical steps to reduce the country’s 26 percent unemployment rate, such as moving toward a single contract for all types of job.



U.S. Congress turns attention to debt limit battle (Reuters). The U.S. Congress, struggling to avert a government shutdown next week, was warned by the Obama administration that the Treasury was quickly running out of funds to pay government bills and could soon face a damaging debt default. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew pleaded with Congress to raise the $16.7 trillion debt limit and said the government would not be able to borrow funds past Oct. 17.

After that date, only $30 billion would be left in the Treasury's checking account, putting the country on course to miss crucial debt payments, Lew said. Amid Treasury's dire default warning, lawmakers grappled with another potential crisis: federal agency shutdowns that could begin with the new fiscal year next Tuesday unless Congress comes up with emergency funds.

Page 1 of 6

REGIONAL NEWS 

South Korea scales back key fiscal pledges as weak growth saps revenue (Reuters).

President Park Geun-hye’s administration bowed to hard economic reality, retreating from a pledge to balance the budget within its five-year term and scaling back major social welfare spending plans. The government now aims to reduce the fiscal deficit to 0.4 percent of GDP in 2017, President Park's last full year in office, from 1.8 percent projected for 2014, acknowledging its fiscal limits as this year's tax revenue is projected to fall 7 trillion to 8 trillion won short of initial calculations. The finance ministry says fiscal spending next year will rise by just 2.5 percent in annual terms to 357.7 trillion won ($333.6 billion), far lower than this year's 7.2 percent rise including a stimulus package passed in May. Even so, next year's fiscal deficit level will remain unchanged from 2013 relative to GDP, while its total net debt will rise. Part of the problem is that a firm economic recovery has yet to materialise.



Recent Chinese data reinforce IMF's 2013 GDP forecast (Reuters). China's recent economic data reinforce the IMF's forecast that the world's second-largest economy will avoid a second-half slowdown and grow 7.75 percent this year, a fund official said. Markus Rodlauer, deputy director of the IMF's Asia Pacific Department and the fund's mission chief for China, said the IMF expected China's economy to sustain its pace of growth despite a difficult international environment. He noted double-digit retail sales growth and figures for industrial added value and fixed asset investment as some examples of such indicators. In July, the IMF called for more reforms to sustain China's impressive economic performance and kept its 2013 growth forecast at 7.75 percent, above Beijing's 7.5 percent target, although at the time it noted downside risks to the forecast.



Singapore manufacturing output up 3.5% on-year in August (Channel NewsAsia). Singapore's manufacturing output in August rose 3.5 percent from a year earlier, missing expectations due mainly to a weaker pharmaceuticals sector. Compared to July, industrial production contracted 1.4 percent in August. Excluding biomedical manufacturing, output fell 1.4 percent. Singapore's higher factory output in August was led by the electronics cluster, which saw its output grew 5.3 per cent in August, compared to the same period a year ago. Growth was supported by the other electronics modules and components segment, which expanded 38.5 percent. The semiconductors segment also recorded a strong growth of 12.7 percent.



FDI companies in Vietnam spearhead export growth (Viet Nam News). Viet Nam's exports rose 15.1 percent in the first eight months to US$85.2 billion, with foreign-invested companies accounting for 60 percent of the figure. According to the customs department, domestic firms, which used to be strong in agriculture, aquatic, and fisheries produce, saw exports level off or even decline. Seafood exports, for instance, increased by just 2.6 per cent year-on-year to $4.05 billion. Rubber companies suffered due to a fall in export prices. Sectors that saw exports grow, like mobile phones and accessories, computers, and electronics and components, are almost completely dominated by foreign companies. Exports of mobile phones and accessories were worth $13.39 billion, a whopping 80.8 per cent rise. Of this, foreign companies like Samsung accounted for $13.28 billion.



Thailand’s exports up 3.9% in August (Bangkok Post). The value of Thailand's exports in August rose 3.9% from the same month last year to US$20.47 billion, the Commerce Ministry said. The value of imports dropped 2.1% to US$20.56 billion, reducing the country’s trade deficit to US$94.7 million. The ministry said exports over the first eight months of the year (Jan-Aug) totalled US$152.83 billion, an increase of 1% over the same period in 2012. Imports rose by 3.1% to US$170.98 billion, resulting in a total trade deficit of US$18.14 billion.

Page 2 of 6

IFIs NEWS (compiled from their websites) ADB – Publication: “Asia Bond Monitor - September 2013” 

According to ADB’s latest quarterly Asia Bond Monitor, emerging East Asia’s local currency bond markets are still expanding but risks to the outlook are rising given the prospects of tighter US monetary policy, slower economic growth in Asia and persistent capital outflows. http://www.adb.org/news/rising-risks-emerging-east-asias-local-currency-bonds-adb-report (Press Release) http://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/pub/2013/asia-bond-monitor-september-2013.pdf (Report) http://www.adb.org/publications/asia-bond-monitor-september-2013 (Highlights and Contents of the report)

Basel Committee – Publication: “Results of the Basel III Monitoring Exercise as of December 31, 2012” 

The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has published its report on the Results of the Basel III monitoring exercise as of December 31, 2012. Data as of December 31, 2012 show that shortfalls in the risk-based capital of large internationally active banks continue to shrink.

The aggregate shortfall of Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital with respect to the 4.5% minimum has narrowed to €2.2 billion, which is €1.5 billion lower than on June 30, 2012. At the CET1 target level of 7.0% [plus the surcharges on Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs) as applicable], the aggregate CET1 shortfall for Group 1 banks is €115.0 billion, which is €82.9 billion lower than previously. http://www.bis.org/press/p130925.htm (Press Release) http://www.bis.org/publ/bcbs262.pdf (Report)

IMF – Publication: “Toward A Fiscal Union for the Euro Area” 

The IMF has publicised a Staff Discussion Note which discusses the staff views with reference to emergence of proposals in Europe on this highly topical issue and it addresses a key policy issue for Europe - namely, reinforcing European Monetary Union (EMU) institutional architecture along with the Banking Union. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/sdn/2013/sdn1309.pdf

IMF – Speech: The Path Toward Greater Financial Stability: Where Are We and What Needs to be Done? 

The IMF has publicised the speech delivered by Mr Naoyuki Shinohara, Deputy Managing Director of the IMF at the 8th Conference on Risk, Banking and Financial Stability held at Bali, Indonesia on September 25, 2013. http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2013/092513.htm

World Bank– Press Release: Myanmar – Electric Power Project 

The World Bank’s Board of Executive Directors has approved a US$140 million equivalent interest-free credit to Myanmar for the captioned project. The objective of the project is to increase capacity and efficiency of gas-fired power generation and strengthen the institutional capacity of the Ministry of Electric Power and the Myanmar Electric Power Enterprise. http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2013/09/24/turning-lights-on-in-myanmar (Press Release) http://www.worldbank.org/projects/P143988/electric-power-project?lang=en (Project’s Information)

Page 3 of 6

FOREIGN CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES 2012 close China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

6.23 7.75 9,793.00 86.75 1,064.40 3.06 41.01 1.22 30.59 20,840.00

Previous wk's close 6.12 7.76 11,184.00 98.17 1,110.04 3.28 44.58 1.27 32.15 21,155.00

25-Sep

26-Sep

6.12 7.75 11,488.00 98.43 1,077.23 3.22 43.43 1.25 31.26 21,120.00

6.12 7.75 11,205.00 98.69 1,075.19 3.21 43.27 1.25 31.17 21,115.00

% change -0.02 0.00 2.53 -0.26 0.19 0.22 0.37 -0.03 0.30 0.02

2013 YTD (%chg) 1.8 0.0 -13.9 -11.5 -1.1 -5.6 -5.6 -2.7 -2.7 -1.3

Note: Negative values indicate depreciation and positive values indicate appreciation.

STOCK MARKET INDEX 2012 close China (SSE Composite) Hong Kong SAR (Hang Seng) Indonesia (JCI) Japan (Nikkei 225) Korea (KOSPI 200) Malaysia (FBMKLCI) Philippines (PSEi) Singapore (STI) Thailand (SET) Vietnam (VNINDEX)

China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

2,269.1 22,656.9 4,316.7 10,395.2 1,997.1 1,689.0 5,812.7 3,167.1 1,391.9 413.7

Previous wk's close 2,098.4 21,731.4 4,195.1 13,388.9 1,926.4 1,727.6 6,075.2 3,028.9 1,294.3 472.7

25-Sep 2,198.5 23,209.6 4,406.8 14,620.5 1,998.1 1,784.1 6,420.4 3,208.6 1,436.9 486.2

OVERNIGHT LENDING RATE (IN %) 25-Sep 26-Sep bps change 3.900 3.110 -79.00 0.099 0.094 -0.50 5.664 5.676 1.21 0.090 0.085 -0.50 2.500 2.500 0.00 3.000 3.000 0.00 1.381 1.779 39.80 0.023 0.023 0.00 2.500 2.500 0.00 2.600 2.471 -12.90

26-Sep 2,155.8 23,125.0 4,430.8 14,799.1 2,007.3 1,777.1 6,407.5 3,194.2 1,434.0 485.1

% change -1.942 -0.36 0.54 1.22 0.46 -0.39 -0.20 -0.45 -0.20 -0.23

2013 YTD (%chg) -5.0 -0.8 1.9 42.4 -1.2 6.1 9.3 -0.2 1.9 16.0

3-MONTH INTERBANK LENDING RATE (IN %)

25-Sep 4.672 0.386 7.152 0.230 2.660 3.200 0.377 0.374 2.602 5.200

26-Sep 4.673 0.385 7.158 0.230 2.660 3.210 0.301 0.374 2.602 5.100

bps change 0.17 -0.07 0.57 0.00 0.00 1.00 -7.60 0.00 0.00 -10.00

SOVEREIGN BOND RATES (%, 10-YEAR Sovereign) 2012 close China 3.220 Hong Kong SAR 0.396 Indonesia 4.806 Japan 0.185 Korea 2.980 Malaysia 3.185 Philippines 4.115 Singapore 0.330 Thailand 3.195 Vietnam 9.650 Latest data are available on a one-day lag

Previous wk's close 3.610 2.277 7.980 0.822 3.390 3.699 4.183 2.449 3.700 8.971

24-Sep 4.020 2.201 7.937 0.678 3.400 3.732 3.706 2.378 3.880 8.832

25-Sep 4.060 2.177 7.983 0.677 3.380 3.745 3.763 2.361 3.840 8.842

bps change 4.000 -2.400 4.600 -0.100 -2.000 1.300 5.700 -1.700 -4.000 1.000

2013 YTD (bps) 84.000 178.100 317.700 49.200 40.000 56.000 -35.240 203.100 64.500 -80.800

CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP (IN BPS) China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia

24-Sep 88.24 49.37 236.42

25-Sep 86.04 48.40 234.08

bps change -2.20 -0.97 -2.34

Page 4 of 6

Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam

62.52 78.40 114.14 114.50 117.53 271.83

62.04 76.44 119.98 114.50 123.89 271.81

-0.48 -1.96 5.84 0.00 6.36 -0.02

Note: Negative values indicate lower pricing of risk and positive values indicate higher pricing of risk.

Latest data are available on a one-day lag

25-Sep Gold Spot (in US$ per ounce) Sources: Bloomberg & Datastream

1,334.4

26-Sep 1,338.0

% change 0.27

CREDIT RATINGS China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

S&P

Moody's

Fitch

AAAAA BB+ AAA+ ABBBAAA BBB+ BB-

Aa3 Aa1 Baa3 Aa3 Aa3 A3 Ba1 Aaa Baa1 B2

A+ AA+ BBBA+ AAABBBAAA BBB+ B+

INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (END-MONTH, IN USD BILLION) 2012 31-Dec 31-Jan 28-Feb 31-Mar China 3,311.6 3,410.1 3,395.4 3,442.7 Hong Kong SAR 317.3 304.7 304.8 303.8 Indonesia 112.8 108.8 105.2 104.8 Japan 1,268.1 1,267.3 1,258.8 1,254.4 Korea 327.0 328.9 327.4 327.4 Malaysia 139.7 140.2 140.3 139.7 Philippines 83.8 85.3 83.6 84.0 Singapore 259.3 258.8 259.1 258.2 Thailand 181.6 181.6 179.2 177.8 Vietnam 25.2 27.8 28.2 28.0

2013 30-Apr 31-May 3,534.5 3,514.8 306.5 305.7 107.3 105.1 1,258.0 1,250.2 328.8 328.1 140.3 141.4 83.2 82.0 261.7 258.4 177.8 175.3 27.2 26.6

30-Jun 3,496.7 303.6 98.1 1,238.7 326.4 136.1 81.3 259.8 170.8 n.a

31-Jul n.a 299.9 92.7 1,254.0 329.7 137.8 83.2 261.1 172.9 n.a

31-Aug n.a 303.9 93.0 1,254.2 331.1 134.8 83.2 261.9 172.2 n.a

Note: Data for China and Vietnam refer to FX reserves

EXTERNAL LIQUIDITY RATIOS* Int'l Reserves

China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

(US$bn) 3,496.7 303.9 93.0 1,254.2 331.1 134.8 83.2 261.9 172.2 26.6

3 months imports of goods & services (US$bn) 523.3 141.5 55.0 79.2 151.4 58.5 17.2 126.5 66.9 31.3

Short-term external debt (US$bn) 565.7 745.6 46.3 2,052.2 119.6 37.3 9.8 968.3 62.1 10.0

Import cover (Qtrs of imports covered by reserves) 6.7 2.1 1.7 15.8 2.2 2.3 4.8 2.1 2.6 -

Reserves over short-term debt 6.2 0.4 2.0 0.6 2.8 3.6 8.5 0.3 2.8 -

Notes: * Based on latest available data Import cover is computed by dividing international reserves with 3-month worth of imports of goods and services using the latest available data from balance of payments statistics. Short-term debts are liabilities due in 1 year or less; data is as of 1Q 2013, except for Indonesia and Korea, which are as of 2Q 2013, and Vietnam, which is end-2011. For Vietnam, the figure refers to Private Creditor and not short-term debt.

Page 5 of 6

Economies South Korea Singapore Hong Kong Hong Kong Hong Kong

DATA RELEASES FOR THE DAY Indicators Period SK Consumer Confidence Sep Industrial Production YoY% Aug Exports YoY% Aug Imports YoY% Aug Trade Balance (HKD bn) Aug

Last

SELECTED ECONOMIC RELEASES CALENDAR (23 - 27 SEPT 2013) Expected Release Date Country Indicators 9/23/2013 Hong Kong CPI - Composite Index (YoY)% China HSBC/Markit Flash Mfg PMI Singapore CPI - Composite Index (YoY)% Malaysia Foreign Reserves (USD bn) 9/24/2013 Vietnam CPI (YoY) % Hong Kong Bal of Paymts - Current A/C (HKD bn) Hong Kong Bal of Paymts - Overall (HKD bn) 9/25/2013 Philippines Trade Balance (USD mn) Philippines Total Imports (YoY)% 9/26/2013 South Korea SK Consumer Confidence Singapore Industrial Production YoY% Hong Kong Exports YoY% Hong Kong Imports YoY% Hong Kong Trade Balance (HKD bn) 9/27/2013 South Korea Current Account in (USD mn) Japan National CPI Ex Food, Energy YoY % Japan National CPI YoY % Thailand Foreign Reserves (USD bn)

Previous 102 3.5 -1.3 -0.2 -39.6

105 2.7 10.6 8.3 -37.2

Period Aug Sep Aug Sep 13 Sep 2Q 2Q Jul Jul Sep Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Sep 20

The ASEAN+3 Market Update is compiled based on publicly available information only and is for internal use. The interpretation of this document or any information contained or referred to in the document and the consequences which might be caused by such interpretation are not the responsibility of AMRO. The information in this document is provided for information purposes only.

Page 6 of 6

MARKET UPDATE FOR ASEAN+3 30 September 2013, 17:00 local time SGT (UTC+8) MARKET DEVELOPMENTS 

Asian stocks fall as U.S. government shutdown looms. Asian stocks fell, with the benchmark index paring its biggest monthly gain since 2012, on concern the U.S. government is headed for a shutdown amid a budget stalemate. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 1.5 percent to 138.65 as of 5:10 p.m. in Tokyo. Japan's Nikkei fell 2.1 percent as the yen gained and South Korea’s Kospi lost 0.7 percent. Singapore’s Straits Times Index fell 1.1 percent, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 1.5 percent and China’s Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.7 percent.



Dollar came under pressure as over U.S. budget. The dollar dropped to a one-month low against the yen as a shutdown of the U.S. government seemed ever more likely, while the euro had political troubles of its own as the Italian government teetered on the edge of collapse.

The dollar fell to 97.84 yen from 98.20 late in New York on Friday, while the euro hit 132.10 yen from 132.78. The euro lost ground to the Swiss franc. Against the U.S. dollar, it was off a quarter of a cent at $1.3496.



WTI drops to three-month low. WTI for November delivery slid as much as $1.42 to $101.45 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest intraday price since July 5. Brent for November settlement fell $1.13, or 1 percent, to $107.50 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange and was at $107.60. The European benchmark crude was at a premium of $6.08 to WTI futures, up from $5.76 on Sept. 27. Gold advanced to the highest level in more than a week, heading for the first quarterly increase in a year

BREAKING NEWS GLOBAL NEWS 

U.S. federal government hours away from shutdown (Reuters). With a deadline to avert a federal government shutdown fast approaching, the U.S. Capitol was eerily quiet as Republicans and Democrats waited for the other side to blink first and break the impasse over funding. The Republican-controlled House of Representatives early on Sunday passed a measure that ties government funding to a one-year delay of President Barack Obama's landmark healthcare restructuring law. Senate Democrats have vowed to quash it. If a stop-gap spending bill for the new fiscal year is not passed before midnight on Monday, government agencies and programs deemed non-essential will begin closing their doors for the first time in 17 years.



U.K. mortgage approvals rise to highest since 2008 (Bloomberg). U.K. mortgage approvals rose to the highest in more than five years in August as the government prepares to accelerate a home-buying program that’s been criticized for potentially over-stimulating the market.

Lenders granted 62,226 mortgages, the most since February 2008, compared with a revised 60,914 the previous month, the Bank of England said in a monthly report. The data also showed that business lending fell the most in eight months.



German August retail sales rose while missing expectations (Bloomberg). German retail sales rose in August, indicating that a recovery in Europe’s largest economy is gathering pace. Sales adjusted for inflation and seasonal swings increased 0.5 percent from July, when they fell a revised 0.2 percent, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today.

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REGIONAL NEWS 

China factory rebound elusive as economy leans on exports (Reuters). China's factory sector grew only slightly in September as domestic demand faltered, an unexpectedly weak outcome that suggests a firm rebound in Asia's economic powerhouse still remains elusive. The final HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) edged up to 50.2 from August's 50.1, figures showed. Although a five-month high and showing the sector was growing, the survey was disappointing for investors as it was well below last week's flash reading of 51.2, with domestic orders weaker than preliminary estimates suggested. New export orders picked up the slack, climbing to 50.7 from 47.2 in August to be above the 50-point mark separating expansion from contraction. After seasonal adjustments, however, the expansion was slight, HSBC said.



Japanese output slips but seen rising on exports, domestic demand (Reuters). Japan's industrial output slid 0.7 percent in August after a hefty gain in the previous month, but analysts see factory activity and the broader economy on track for a steady recovery backed by exports and firm domestic demand. Retail sales also rose 1.1 percent in August from a year earlier, data showed on Monday, in a sign consumer spending is sustaining momentum. The data is unlikely to change expectations for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to decide this week on the planned sales tax hike, the biggest effort by Japan in decades to fix its tattered public finances.



Vietnam Premier opens door to foreign investors (Bloomberg). Vietnam’s premier pledged to subject state-owned companies to competition and allow greater foreign ownership of banks as the government seeks to revive growth and join a key trade agreement. Over the next five years, Vietnam’s state companies will focus on areas such as infrastructure that “the private sector cannot or does not want to invest in,” Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung said in an interview in New York. The government plans to devalue the dong as much as 2 percent by the end of the year and let foreign companies own up to 49 percent of local banks in the “near future,” Premier Dung said.



Total bank lending in Singapore up 0.3% in August (Channel NewsAsia). Total bank lending in Singapore increased 0.3 per cent in August from July, according to figures released by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS). Loans and advances by domestic banking units in Singapore amounted to S$540.8 billion in August, up from S$539.0 billion in July. Compared to a year ago, bank lending in August rose 15 per cent. Loans to businesses increased marginally to S$321.2 billion in August compared to July, with increases seen mainly in the building and construction, as well as transport, storage and communication businesses. Consumer loans rose 0.8 per cent to S$219.6 billion last month, compared to July.



Indonesian government pours $278m into Surakarta toll road (The Jakarta Post). The government of Indonesia aims to allocate Rp 3.2 trillion (US$278.4 million) in the form of viability-gap funding for the Surakarta-Mantingan-Ngawi toll road in order to help accelerate the Trans-Java toll-road network linking Jakarta and Surabaya, East Java. Public Works Minister Djoko Kirmanto said the funding would help with land clearance and the construction of 20.9 kilometers (km) of the total 90 km road. Similar to the Trans-Java network, he said the new road connecting Surakarta and Ngawi would be finished in December next year. According to the ministry data, 82.69 percent of the total land required for the toll road has been acquired, while the remaining 17.31 percent was expected to be acquired within a month.



Laos, China agree to cement strategic partnership (Vientiane Times). Laos and China have signed a number of cooperation documents relating to the further development of their comprehensive strategic partnership and the future of their economic cooperation, during an official goodwill visit to China by Lao President and Secretary General of the Lao People's Page 2 of 6

Revolutionary Party, Mr Choummaly Sayasone, from September 26-30. Since Laos and China established their comprehensive strategic partnership in 2009, their mutual trust has deepened, particularly in political affairs, and economic cooperation has seen progress as anticipated. China is a key trading partner with Laos and their annual trade volume has been increasing on a year-on-year basis. In the first five months of 2013, bilateral trade stood at US$794 million, and China's nonfinancial direct investment in Laos reached US$339 million.

IFIs NEWS (compiled from their websites) BIS – Press Release: Report on China's implementation of Basel III published by the Basel Committee 

The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has published a report on the regulations that implement the Basel capital framework in China. The compliance of China's domestic capital rules with the international Basel capital standards was assessed as part of the Committee's Regulatory Consistency Assessment Programme (RCAP). The assessment team held discussions with senior officials and staff of the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC), and met with senior representatives from the People's Bank of China (PBoC), selected commercial banks and audit firms based in China. China's implementation of the Basel capital framework was found to be closely aligned with the Basel III global standards: 12 out of 14 assessed components were found to be "Compliant". http://www.bis.org/press/p130927.htm (Press Release) http://www.bis.org/bcbs/implementation/l2_cn.pdf (Report) FOREIGN CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES 2012 close China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

6.23 7.75 9,793.00 86.75 1,064.40 3.06 41.01 1.22 30.59 20,840.00

Previous wk's close 6.12 7.76 11,184.00 98.17 1,110.04 3.28 44.58 1.27 32.15 21,155.00

27-Sep

30-Sep

6.12 7.75 11,284.00 98.24 1,073.65 3.23 43.37 1.26 31.33 21,114.00

6.12 7.75 11,406.00 97.84 1,074.64 3.26 43.48 1.26 31.27 21,125.00

% change -0.04 0.00 -1.07 0.41 -0.09 -0.98 -0.25 0.06 0.19 -0.05

2013 YTD (%chg) 1.8 0.0 -15.4 -10.7 -1.0 -6.9 -6.0 -2.8 -3.0 -1.3

Note: Negative values indicate depreciation and positive values indicate appreciation.

STOCK MARKET INDEX 2012 close China (SSE Composite) Hong Kong SAR (Hang Seng) Indonesia (JCI) Japan (Nikkei 225) Korea (KOSPI 200) Malaysia (FBMKLCI) Philippines (PSEi) Singapore (STI) Thailand (SET) Vietnam (VNINDEX)

China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea

2,269.1 22,656.9 4,316.7 10,395.2 1,997.1 1,689.0 5,812.7 3,167.1 1,391.9 413.7

Previous wk's close 2,098.4 21,731.4 4,195.1 13,388.9 1,926.4 1,727.6 6,075.2 3,028.9 1,294.3 472.7

27-Sep 2,160.0 23,207.0 4,423.7 14,760.1 2,011.8 1,776.2 6,379.8 3,210.2 1,417.5 486.6

OVERNIGHT LENDING RATE (IN %) 27-Sep 30-Sep bps change 3.050 4.000 95.00 0.095 0.099 0.43 5.683 5.700 1.71 0.085 0.080 -0.50 2.500 2.500 0.00

30-Sep 2,174.7 22,859.9 4,316.2 14,455.8 1,997.0 1,768.6 6,191.8 3,175.5 1,388.6 492.6

% change 0.678 -1.50 -2.43 -2.06 -0.74 -0.42 -2.95 -1.08 -2.04 1.24

2013 YTD (%chg) -4.2 -1.9 -0.7 39.1 -1.7 5.6 5.6 -0.8 -1.3 17.8

3-MONTH INTERBANK LENDING RATE (IN %)

27-Sep 4.672 0.386 7.159 0.230 2.650

30-Sep 4.670 0.386 7.159 0.230 2.650

bps change -0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

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Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

3.000 0.885 0.024 2.500 2.400

3.000 0.637 0.024 2.500 2.517

0.00 -24.80 0.00 0.00 11.70

3.210 0.121 0.374 2.602 4.814

3.210 0.206 0.374 2.602 4.714

0.00 8.50 0.00 0.00 -10.00

SOVEREIGN BOND RATES (%, 10-YEAR Sovereign) 2012 close China 3.220 Hong Kong SAR 0.396 Indonesia 4.806 Japan 0.185 Korea 2.980 Malaysia 3.185 Philippines 4.115 Singapore 0.330 Thailand 3.195 Vietnam 9.650 Latest data are available on a one-day lag

Previous wk's close 3.610 2.277 7.980 0.822 3.390 3.699 4.183 2.449 3.700 8.971

26-Sep 4.020 2.189 8.054 0.697 3.460 3.761 3.838 2.401 3.860 8.842

27-Sep

2013 YTD (bps) 83.000 179.700 342.200 49.900 46.000 57.600 -33.840 204.800 74.500 -80.800

bps change

4.050 2.193 8.228 0.684 3.440 3.761 3.777 2.378 3.940 8.842

3.000 0.400 17.400 -1.300 -2.000 0.000 -6.100 -2.300 8.000 0.000

CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP (IN BPS) China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam

26-Sep 85.54 48.39 234.12 62.03 75.93 120.94 114.50 124.85 269.52

27-Sep 83.83 48.41 241.31 62.04 74.22 121.42 114.50 125.56 268.08

bps change -1.71 0.02 7.19 0.01 -1.71 0.48 0.00 0.71 -1.44

Note: Negative values indicate lower pricing of risk and positive values indicate higher pricing of risk.

Latest data are available on a one-day lag

27-Sep Gold Spot (in US$ per ounce) Sources: Bloomberg & Datastream

1,336.9

30-Sep 1,338.6

% change 0.13

CREDIT RATINGS China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

S&P

Moody's

Fitch

AAAAA BB+ AAA+ ABBBAAA BBB+ BB-

Aa3 Aa1 Baa3 Aa3 Aa3 A3 Ba1 Aaa Baa1 B2

A+ AA+ BBBA+ AAABBBAAA BBB+ B+

INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (END-MONTH, IN USD BILLION) 2012 31-Dec 31-Jan 28-Feb 31-Mar China 3,311.6 3,410.1 3,395.4 3,442.7 Hong Kong SAR 317.3 304.7 304.8 303.8 Indonesia 112.8 108.8 105.2 104.8 Japan 1,268.1 1,267.3 1,258.8 1,254.4 Korea 327.0 328.9 327.4 327.4 Malaysia 139.7 140.2 140.3 139.7 Philippines 83.8 85.3 83.6 84.0 Singapore 259.3 258.8 259.1 258.2

2013 30-Apr 31-May 3,534.5 3,514.8 306.5 305.7 107.3 105.1 1,258.0 1,250.2 328.8 328.1 140.3 141.4 83.2 82.0 261.7 258.4

30-Jun 3,496.7 303.6 98.1 1,238.7 326.4 136.1 81.3 259.8

31-Jul n.a 299.9 92.7 1,254.0 329.7 137.8 83.2 261.1

31-Aug n.a 303.9 93.0 1,254.2 331.1 134.8 83.2 261.9

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Thailand Vietnam

181.6 25.2

181.6 27.8

179.2 28.2

177.8 28.0

177.8 27.2

175.3 26.6

170.8 n.a

172.9 n.a

172.2 n.a

Note: Data for China and Vietnam refer to FX reserves

EXTERNAL LIQUIDITY RATIOS* Int'l Reserves

China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

(US$bn) 3,496.7 303.9 93.0 1,254.2 331.1 134.8 83.2 261.9 172.2 26.6

3 months imports of goods & services (US$bn) 523.3 141.5 55.0 79.2 151.4 58.5 17.2 126.5 66.9 31.3

Short-term external debt (US$bn) 565.7 745.6 46.3 2,052.2 119.6 37.3 9.8 968.3 62.1 10.0

Import cover (Qtrs of imports covered by reserves) 6.7 2.1 1.7 15.8 2.2 2.3 4.8 2.1 2.6 -

Reserves over short-term debt 6.2 0.4 2.0 0.6 2.8 3.6 8.5 0.3 2.8 -

Notes: * Based on latest available data Import cover is computed by dividing international reserves with 3-month worth of imports of goods and services using the latest available data from balance of payments statistics. Short-term debts are liabilities due in 1 year or less; data is as of 1Q 2013, except for Indonesia and Korea, which are as of 2Q 2013, and Vietnam, which is end-2011. For Vietnam, the figure refers to Private Creditor and not short-term debt.

Economies South Korea South Korea South Korea South Korea Japan Thailand Thailand Thailand Thailand Thailand Hong Kong CHINA Indonesia

DATA RELEASES FOR THE DAY Indicators Period Business Survey- Manufacturing Oct Business Survey- Non-Manufacturing Oct Industrial Production (YoY)% Aug Industrial Production (MoM)% Aug Industrial Production YOY% Aug P Business Sentiment Index Aug Total Exports YOY% Aug Total Imports YOY% Aug Current Account Balance (USD mn) Aug Total Trade Balance (USD mn) Aug Govt Mthly Budget Surp/Def (HKD bn) Aug HSBC Manufacturing PMI Sep Money Supply - M2 (YoY)% Aug

Last

Previous 82 72 3.3 1.8 -0.2 47.5 2.5 -2.4 1285 2214 -16.92 50.2 12.9

SELECTED ECONOMIC RELEASES CALENDAR (30 SEPT - 04 OCT 2013) Expected Release Date Country Indicators 9/30/2013 South Korea Business Survey- Manufacturing South Korea Business Survey- Non-Manufacturing Japan Industrial Production YOY% South Korea Industrial Production (YoY)% South Korea Industrial Production (MoM)% Thailand Business Sentiment Index Thailand Total Exports YOY% Thailand Total Imports YOY% Thailand Current Account Balance (USD mn) Thailand Total Trade Balance (USD mn) Hong Kong Govt Mthly Budget Surp/Def (HKD bn) CHINA HSBC Manufacturing PMI Indonesia Money Supply - M2 (YoY)%

77 70 0.9 -1.0 1.8 48.3 -1.3 -0.2 -709 258 -16.0 50.1 15.41

Period Oct Oct Aug P Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Sep Aug Page 5 of 6

10/1/2013

10/2/2013 10/3/2013

10/4/2013

Japan Japan Indonesia Thailand Thailand South Korea South Korea South Korea South Korea South Korea China Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Philippines Hong Kong Hong Kong Indonesia Indonesia Thailand South Korea Thailand HONG KONG Malaysia Malaysia Philippines

Job-To-Applicant Ratio Jobless Rate % Consumer Confidence Index Core CPI (YoY)% Consumer Price Index (YoY)% Consumer Price Index (YoY)% Consumer Price Index (MoM)% Core Consumer Price Index(YoY)% Ext Trade - Export (YoY)% Ext Trade - Imports (YoY)% PMI Manufacturing Total Trade Balance (USD mn) Inflation NSA (MoM)% Exports (YoY)% Core Inflation (YoY)% Total Imports (YoY)% Inflation (YoY)% Budget Deficit/Surplus (PHP bn) Retail Sales - Volume (YoY)% Retail Sales - Value (YoY)% Net Foreign Assets (IDR Tln) Foreign Reserves (USD bn) Consumer Confidence Economic Foreign Exchange Reserve (USD bn) Foreign Reserves (USD bn) Purchasing Managers Index Exports YoY% Imports YoY% Consumer Price Index (YoY)%

Aug Aug Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Aug Sep Aug Sep Aug Sep Aug Aug Aug Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep 27 Sep Aug Aug Sep

The ASEAN+3 Market Update is compiled based on publicly available information only and is for internal use. The interpretation of this document or any information contained or referred to in the document and the consequences which might be caused by such interpretation are not the responsibility of AMRO. The information in this document is provided for information purposes only.

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