ALYSHA EMMA DAVIS Trend Prediction and Product Development MA FAshion Management and Communication
Martin Raymond (2010) claimed in his trend forecasting handbook that “all trends can be predicted; all shifts in the culture anticipated and accounted for�, that is if you understand what trends are, where to look for them, what to look for and how to read whatever it is when you find it. Trend forecasting, although a fairly recent discipline, now underpins all aspects of society where it is important to understand the short and long term impact of innovative and emerging fluctuations happening in the world around us. Trend forecasters are practitioners who dedicate time to detecting the patterns and shifts in the mentalities, attitudes and lifestyle choices that counter the current ways of being i.e how people live, dress, behave and communicate (Raymond, 2010). Forecasting isn’t about conjecture or inspiration but rather requires the application of qualitative and quantitative skills in a way that allows the user to recognise new and emergent shifts in culture as they occur, mapping and forward projecting these changes in a manner that makes them observable and clear to less attentive persons (Kim, Fiore, & Kim, 2011). This essay aims to determine the theoretical elements that impact on fashion trend forecasting and how forecasting trends can be used to influence the development of a product. This will be demonstrated using two short term trends and two long term trends that I have investigated and developed. Short Term Anthropological Liberties Cultured Couture Long Term Orwellian Dystopia Ikigai
1. Premier Vision New York Spring Summer 2018
3. A Page industries
2. Presage Fashion Forecasting Book
Trend Forecasting: A Brief History Trend forecasting emerged as a serious industry in line with mass production and retail development at the end of the Second World War (Mckelvey and Munslow, 2008). Predictions were compiled into trend books that could be purchased by the design companies to drive their design story. These were often very visual and tactile productions, produced once or twice a year. Although the internet transformed the industry, the traditional book remains indispensable to the design trade. These books often feature tactile samples and swatches from the most recent trade fairs or may include vintage selections as well. Access to this kind of tactile visual is paramount to some designers (ibid.). In the sixties, there was a shift from a single dominant trend, such as ‘milkmaid’ or ‘safari’, reflecting the simplistic nature of the time, to a more pluralistic and interpretive approach (i.e ‘melancholy mermaid’, ‘floral disturbia’). This change coincided with the growth of hyper-connectivity and in turn the increasing sophistication of the consumer (Mckelvey and Munslow, 2008). This allowed for a steady transposition of a market which was predominantly defined by couture designers and street style subcultures, to a focus on the individual, leading to a fragmentation of the market into niche areas, where the consumer’s aspiration is brand led and lifestyle driven.
e from L’officiel de la couleur des s de la mode no.6 plate 9
4. L’Officiael De La Couleur Des Industries De La Mode
The introduction of the world-wide web revolutionised the trend industry and permitted new dot.com companies, such as WGSN to issue forecasting resources quickly and eased client access. It allowed for information to be documented from farther key cities, faster and as it was happening. It also created access to in depth databases and analysis of demographics, economics, consumer behaviour, politics, cultural attitudes and advancements in technology, from any location at any time of day. The once closely guarded world of trend predication and analysis has become accessible to all levels of the market and even consumers themselves. As of 2011, the forecasting industry was valued at 36 billion dollars (Hart, 2015). The most prominent consequence of the digital revolution meant that instead of just a few trends emerging at one time, there are now multiple trends surfacing concurrently and permeating within each other (Illingworth, 2016). This internet empowered people from across the globe to take trend research into their own hands. Social media apps such Instagram, Pinterest and Tumblr have made it easy to keep up with trends by pinning imagery to a mood board as a means of collating inspiration. Since forecasting trends has become inextricably embedded in cultural and social frameworks, trend forecasting has become more complex. Companies have high expectations of the forecasting agencies as they are expected to investigate an imprecise and intricate web of trends and communicate them effectively to the consumer. Trend forecasting used to be about accessing and defining things that people didn’t know about, such as underground subcultures, but with the internet allowing us to access and share things immediately, Wharry (ibid) argues that there is no such thing as a subculture anymore, as things go viral and appear within the public eye moments. A forecaster must find added value somewhere.
5. WGSN
6. Mood Board
Short Term Trends A short-term trend looks one or two years in the future. They are almost instantly reactive to what is happening in our immediate culture (Kim, Fiore, & Kim, 2011). This is evidenced in my two trends ‘Anthropological Liberties’ and ‘Cultured Couture’.
7. instagram @sarabesara_
Anthropological Liberties Street style of peaceful protestors and anarchist rioters are the main innovators for this trend. Key figures include people such as UN ambassador for womens goodwill, humanitarian and actress, Emma Watson, who started the ‘HeforShe’ campaign (UNwomen, 2017). Designers Stella Mcartney and Dame Vivienne Westwood are both incredibly active in political issues from sustainability and anti-fur to modern day slavery and unlawful incarceration (Atkins, 2017). It is driven by a growing national and global interest in politics due to governments disinterest in its people voice (President Trump, Brexit, Womens Equality, Anti-Immigration movements). There have been multiple protests and marches over the past year in objection to the changes, attitudes and inhumane decisions our world leaders are making. These protests have made way for the people to become more expressive of their distaste in the regime. The impact this trend will maintain the resurgence of slogan clothing that are politically relevant to todays issues, it will see hard and soft materials entwined together. It will aid in the plight of the disaffected youth, who are educating themselves on policy, equality, their rights, the rights of others, political history and political agenda in order to protest with knowledge and integrity. Protest; by nature, a passionate demonstration taking myriad forms, defiantly demonstrating against — or to highlight — burning issues (Atkin, 2017). Consequences of this trend would be a raised awareness of political issues, increased involvement in political activity, social connectivity and youth engagement. It also the ability to push across a message and entice people to the voting booths. The future of this trend is in the people who will be inspired to challenge authority. Open forums for discussion. An increase in political social events such as a ‘modern Woodstock’. Kim Jenkins (2017), assistant fashion professor at Pratt expresses ‘fashion is about illusion and escapism sometimes, but it’s also a platform for the possibility to invite change’.
8. Collage by Alysa Emma Davis
Cultured Couture With a yearly major fashion retrospective at the V&A (London), Palais Galleria (Paris) and most famously, the Metropolitan Costume Institute (New York), Fashion as art and its place in a museum or gallery is constantly questioned. This question is the key innovator in this trend. Personalities such as Rei Kawakubo, Grayson Perry and Bjork are also imperative to this trend. The rise in interest in fashion and fashion exhibition are key drivers for this forecast. Fashion exhibitions undoubtedly draw crowds, people are drawn to the aesthetics of the clothing and to their emotional accessibility. The Savage Beauty exhibition at the V and A [n.d] saw 493,043 guests, and China through the Looking Glass at the met, 815,992 [n.d]. Fashion documentaries have also become incredibly mainstream; The First Monday in May; Iris; Dior and Me are a few titles that have been key viewing for many film and fashion enthusiasts. Fashion is beautiful, it has cultural significance and is a hub of creative experimentation. But is it art? (Givhan, 2017). The documentary ‘The First Monday In May’ explores the other museum departments uncomfortable relationship with fashion, but are museums not a home for cultural debate? And can fashion be portrayed as a facilitator for it. This impact of this trend is to explore the relationship between art, history and fashion and to debate the question, is fashion art? Consequences of this trend would be an increase in gallery attendance, an increase in art school educations, collaboration between business and art, collaboration between fashion designers and artists. Cultural clashes are key consequences here. The future of this trend is hopefully an increased awareness and interest in the arts, so that the government may reconsider the cuts they put in place that defund our public cultural heritage and reintroduce art and fashion programmes back into schools (Brown, 2015) .
9. Rei Kawakubo 10. Bjork 11. Grayson Perry
12 Collage by Alysa Emma Davis
13. Romeo and Juliet, Act 2, Scene 6
Long Term Trend A long-term trend looks much further than that of a short-term trend, three, five or even ten years in the future. They are reactive to what is happening in our culture but more explore what the result of the current will mean for the future (Kim, Fiore, & Kim, 2011). This is evidenced in my two trends ‘Orwellian Dystopia’ and ‘ikigai.
Orwellian Dystopia Orwellian Dystopia is a cautionary tale of a future that is rapidly becoming a conceivable reality. Political unrest, threats of war between the USA, Russia, Korea and China and the rise in propaganda (I.e fake news) are the innovators of this trend. Most of us see the term Orwellian as an adjective to describe an idea or societal condition that author George Orwell identified as being destructive to the welfare of a free and open social order. This is specifically explored in his novel, 1984. Orwellian denotes an attitude and a brutal policy of draconian control by propaganda, surveillance, misinformation, denial of truth, and manipulation of the past. Whilst Orwellian may often be used to refer to this kind of totalitarian society, Orwell himself aimed to reference the types of dialectal our governments use to communicate with us. In his essay ‘Politics and the English Language’ (1946) he outlines political language as ‘designed to make lies sound truthful and murder respectable’. Orwell and the rise of dystopian science fiction drive this trend. If this were to continue to develop, if governments continue to ignore and control the people and try to mould them into a specific shape, take away their basic human rights and civil liberties, the fictional dystopian futures communicated in stories such as Jack London’s The Iron Heel, Aldous Huxley’s Brave New World, The Hunger Games, Westworld, Dr Strangelove, The Watchmen, V for Vendetta, The Handmaid’s Tale, Children of Men, Blade Runner, Divergent, Mad Max and of course Orwell’s 1984, are inevitable. One could argue we are already experiencing factors of these works of supposed fiction.
14. Collage By Alysha Emma Davis
ikigai In 2020 the Olympics in Tokyo (Japan) will draw attention worldwide as each nation cheers on their home team athletes. There will be a major focus on all things Japanese; travel, fashion, food, health, lifestyle etc. and will inevitably influence western culture. Kobayashi Tsukasa (2004), a Japanese psychologist, is a key innovator in this trend. He claims, ‘people can feel real ikigai only when, on the basis of personal maturity, the satisfaction of various desires, love and happiness, encounters with others, and a sense of the value of life, they proceed toward self-realization’. There is no English alternative for the wold ’ikigai’ but it roughly translates to a ‘a reason for being’. This is what you live for. It is the passion and the purpose of your life. It is the joy found in living. It is also used to refer to the mental and spiritual circumstances in which individuals feel that their life is valuable. The driver of this trend is asking questions of oneself and managing the answers in a way you can assimilate into an intelligible sense of purpose is found through asking four question; What is your passion? What are you good at? What does the world need from you? What can you get paid for? The impact of this trend is a raised awareness of self and more interest in physical and mental wellbeing through new treatments. Consequences of this trend would include practices such as Shinrin-Yoku 1 , 2, Hanami 2 Yozakura 3 and Otono-Maki 4 developing into western cultures. Futures would see a rise in people being more self-aware, this could lead to great fulfilment as Maslow (1943) explored in is hierarchy of needs, self-actualisation is the ultimate goal. 1 Shinrin-Yoku – forest bathing 2 Hanami – daytime flower appreciation
3 Yozakura – watching flowers by candle light in the evening 4 Otono-Maki – adult wrapping
15. Forest Bathing
16. Collage By Alysha Emma Davis
Conclusion Good forecasting teaches you to dare, to know, to challenge and to use what you have learned to dare and challenge others (Raymond, 2010). Trends are a essential part of our emotive, physical and mental landscape, and by perceiving, documenting and using them to anticipate what is new and what is next in the world we live in we are contributing to a better understanding of the underlying ideas and principles that drive and motive us as people. It won’t be long until trend forecasting is completely revolutionised by big data. SoMatch are working on producing a tool that will analyse millions of images on the internet through by extracting metadata related to the clothes present in the image in order to give an accurate and detail description of clothing trends. Trend forecasting combined with industry insight big data to actually predict the future of consumer and product needs with conviction will trend forecasting’s undefeatable goldmine.
“A second digital revolution will surely bring untold advancements to trend forecasting as we know it, as for the effects on the fashion industry only time will tell.” (Illingworth, 2016)
References ATKIN, R. (2017). FASHION AND PROTEST; WHERE IS THE CALL TO ARMS?. NOTJUSTALABEL.COM. RETRIEVED 11 MAY 2017, FROM HTTPS://WWW. NOTJUSTALABEL.COM/EDITORIAL/FASHION-AND-PROTEST-WHERE-CALL-ARMS BRANNON, E. (2015). FASHION FORECASTING: BUNDLE BOOK + STUDIO ACCESS CARD (1ST ED.). NEW YORK: FAIRCHILD BOOKS. BROWN, M. (2015). ARTS AND CULTURE BEING 'SYSTEMATICALLY REMOVED FROM UK EDUCATION SYSTEM'. THE GUARDIAN. RETRIEVED 11 MAY 2017, FROM HTTPS://WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM/EDUCATION/2015/FEB/17/ARTS-AND-CULTURE-SYSTEMATICALLY-REMOVED-FROM-UK-EDUCATION-SYSTEM GIVHAN, R. & GIVHAN, R. (2017). FASHION MAY BE ART, BUT DOES IT BELONG IN A MUSEUM?. WASHINGTON POST. RETRIEVED 12 MARCH 2017, FROM HTTPS://WWW.WASHINGTONPOST.COM/NEWS/ARTS-AND-ENTERTAINMENT/WP/2016/04/26/FASHION-MAY-BE-ART-BUT-DOES-ITBELONG-IN-A-MUSEUM/ HART, K. (2017). THE FUTURE OF FASHION FORECASTING. NOTJUSTALABEL.COM. RETRIEVED 9 MAY 2017, FROM HTTPS://WWW.NOTJUSTALABEL. COM/EDITORIAL/THE-FUTURE-OF-FASHION-FORECASTING ILLINGWORTH, G. (2017). HOW VALUABLE IS TREND FORECASTING IN THE POST-INTERNET AGE?. NOTJUSTALABEL.COM. RETRIEVED 9 MAY 2017, FROM HTTPS://WWW.NOTJUSTALABEL.COM/EDITORIAL/HOW-VALUABLE-IS-TREND-FORECASTING-IN-THE-POST-INTERNET-AGE JENKINS, K. (2017). FROM HOODIES TO BRAS: A HISTORY OF CLOTHES AS POLITICAL WEAPONS. REFINERY29.UK. RETRIEVED 12 MARCH 2017, FROM HTTP://WWW.REFINERY29.UK/HOODIES-BRAS-HISTORY-FASHION-STATEMENT-POLITICS KIM, E., FIORE, A., & KIM, H. (2011). FASHION TRENDS (1ST ED.). BLOOMSBURY. MASLOW (1943) FROM HTTP://CHANGINGMINDS.ORG/EXPLANATIONS/NEEDS/MASLOW.HTM MCKELVEY, K., & MUNSLOW, J. (2009). FASHION FORECASTING (1ST ED.). NEW YORK, NY: JOHN WILEY & SONS. MET FIFTH AVENUE, (N.D). 815,992 VISITORS TO COSTUME INSTITUTE’S CHINA EXHIBITION MAKE IT FIFTH MOST VISITED EXHIBITION IN METROPOLITAN MUSEUM’S HISTORY | THE METROPOLITAN MUSEUM OF ART. METMUSEUM.ORG. RETRIEVED 12 MARCH 2017, FROM HTTP://WWW. METMUSEUM.ORG/PRESS/NEWS/2015/CHINA-EXHIBITION-BREAKS-RECORDS ORWELL, G. (1946). GEORGE ORWELL: POLITICS AND THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE. ORWELL.RU. RETRIEVED 3 FEBRUARY 2017, FROM HTTP://WWW. ORWELL.RU/LIBRARY/ESSAYS/POLITICS/ENGLISH/E_POLIT/ ROTHSTEIN, E. (1996). TREND-SPOTTING: IT'S ALL THE RAGE. NYTIMES.COM. RETRIEVED 9 MAY 2017, FROM HTTP://WWW.NYTIMES. COM/1996/12/29/ARTS/TREND-SPOTTING-IT-S-ALL-THE-RAGE.HTML SOMATCH. (2017). SOMATCH.EU. RETRIEVED 11 MAY 2017, FROM HTTP://WWW.SOMATCH.EU/
Images 1. Premier Vision New York Spring Summer 2018 http://blog.patternbank.com/premiere-vision-new-york-ss-2018-print-pattern-trend-round/#more-30135 2. Presage Fashion Forecasting Book http://www.vam.ac.uk/content/articles/t/textiles-in-the-v-and-a-archives/ 3. A Page from L’officiel de la couleur des industries de la mode no.6 plate 9 https://thebestvintageclothing.com/products/l-officiel-de-la-couleur-des-industries-de-la-mode-no-6-hiver-1952-plate-9 4. L’Officielde la couleur des industries de la mode http://blog.fitnyc.edu/materialmode/2013/12/14/the-color-of-couture/ 5. WGSN https://www.wgsn.com/en/products/fashion/ 6. Mood Board http://patterncurator.org/ 7. Instagram image https://www.instagram.com/p/BM15qaQgaU6/ 8. Collage by Alysha Emma Davis Anthropological Liberties 9. Rei Kawakubo http://thekimonogallery.tumblr.com/image/96254601240 10. Bjork https://i-d.vice.com/en_au/article/bjorks-new-virtual-reality-exhibition-is-a-tour-of-her-perfectly-weird-mind 11. Grayson Perry http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3084731/How-mys-son-Grayson-Perry-drove-brink-suicide-Mother-s-agony-double-rejection-transvestite-artist-kills-latest-creation.html 12. Collage by Alysha Emma Davis Cultured Couture 13. Romeo and Juliet, Act 2 Scene 6 https://nightlock.tumblr.com/post/140628778729/romeo-and-juliet-act-ii-scene-vi 14. Collage by Alysha Emma Davis Orwellian stopia 15. Forest Bathing http://desvre.tumblr.com/post/134216058973/avenuesofinspiration-pyrmont-source-aoi 16. Collage by Alysha Emma Davis