Intended for professional clients only
product flash June 2009 Natixis Crédit Euro In an attractive but tense credit market, bond picking is more than ever crucial, this is one of the strength of the investment process of Natixis Crédit Euro.
An attractive but tense credit market April was marked by a rally on the credit market in general. In addition financial bonds largely outperformed the other sectors. Today the credit market is benefiting from very attractive returns. However, the choice of issuers is a key element owing to the slow-down in the European economy. The market remains tense, for two major reasons: 1- credit rating agencies are continuing to downgrade ratings for financial institutional and company for the sectors worst hit by the crisis; 2- default rates are still growing, reaching nearly 7% for the Speculative Grade(1) segment over 12 months YTD at Moody’s in March 2009 versus 4.1% in December 2008 and 1.5% in March 2008. However, while the first publications from the first quarter show falling results with non-financial firms, the market is seeing positive signs in that companies are now seeing a clearer horizon. Analysts are thus anticipating a levelling out of results at their current levels. Hopes for stabilization of the macro-economic environment by the end of 2009 and the end of stock-clearing are also working in favour of a more optimistic view of the credit market. Another positive sign is that the issue volume of Investment Grade(2) issues has reached over €132.5 billion since the beginning of the year to end April (data source: Front, Natixis Asset Management). Most of the companies that have recently issued give rather good transparency of their results. The terms of these operations are as a general rule warmly welcomed by investors, given that returns are attractive and maturities more often than not are between 3 and 5 years.
The advantages of Natixis Crédit Euro in this setting 1- A rigorous investment process based on significant and well-proven resources The management team at Natixis Crédit Euro has the backing of one of the largest bond teams on the Paris market, composed as it is of over 51 experienced professionals (economists, bond strategist, credit analysts, managers and negotiators). n Three performance sources are used: • directional exposure • sectorial allocation (between cyclical, defensive, financial securities and TMT(3)) • bonds selection For each performance driver, groups of experts (sector teams) voice a monthly view (on a scale of -2 to +2) and a degree of belief (high/ low) with a weekly review. The sector teams include specialists and allocation portfolio managers, credit analysts, traders, strategist and economists depending on specificities. Their objective is to formalize and provide technical expertise to all investment management teams. They review a type of strategy (eg: curve), sub asset class (eg: inflation linked) or credit market segments (eg: financial).
(1) Speculative Grade: A bond is considered speculative grade if its is rated below investment grade at the time of purchase. These bonds have a higher risk of default or other adverse credit events, but typically pay higher yields than better quality bonds in order to make them attractive to investors (2) Investment Grade: A bond is considered investment grade if its credit rating is BBB- or higher by Standard & Poor's or Baa3 or higher by Moody's or BBB(low) or higher by DBRS. Generally they are bonds that are judged by the rating agency as likely enough to meet payment obligations that banks are allowed to invest in them. (3) TMT : Technology, Media, Telecommunication
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product flash n The selection of issuers, critical today in view of the market environment, is based on a search for quality credit and the in-depth analysis of valuation made by management.
Investment Ranking Matrix Excellent
- The team of senior credit analysts at Natixis Asset Management (each one with the firm for over 10 years) delivers three complementary conclusions: • Credit Opinion (3-5 years), • Target Rating (18-24 months), • Credit Trend (3-6 months). For each company, credit analysts give a summarized score relative the fundamentals (soundness of balance sheet, etc.).
I
I
II
III
I
II
II
III
III
II
II
II I
IV
IV
II I
IV
IV
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
2 3
4 Fundamentals 5
- Analysis of valuation is conducted by credit managers using a proprietary approach developed with the support of dedicated financial engineers at the bonds department of Natixis Asset Management. - A final rating is thus given by the rating matrix of issuers. Exemple: Vattenfall issue, ranking 2/2 as of 04/30/2009.
I
1
Poor
1
2
3
4
Very Attractive
5
Very Expensive
V a luation I
II
III
Highly Overw eight
Overw eight
N eutral
IV
V
U nderw eight
A void
2- Active management of our beliefs Regarding the directional exposure of Natixis Crédit Euro (the first performance driver), the management team was negative up until the end of March on the credit market, then fell neutral at the beginning of April. In terms of sectorial allocation, the second source of the fund’s alpha, managers were negative with financial bonds until the end of February, went neutral at the beginning of March and then ended positive at the end of March. With non-financial bonds, the portfolio was under-exposed until the end of March, went neutral from the beginning of April by favouring defensive securities and has been overweighted since the end of April. Finally, for the third source of performance, the bonds selection, the management team selected securities showing both good visibility and an attractive return. An example of a security in the Natixis Crédit Euro portfolio: Vattenfall rated (2,2). The main characteristics of the Vattenfall issuer Utilities sector: A positive sectorial view on account of good cash-flow visibility. Fundamentals : Very good: the 5th ranking electricity group in Europe with revenues of around €14.8 billion in 2008 and very good results over the first quarter of 2009. Valuation: An attractive issue in terms of relative value: coupon of 6.25% , maturity March 2021 issued at 280pb.Shrunk by 80 pb as at April 30, 2009.
3- Result: good positioning for Natixis Crédit Euro since the beginning of the year Since the beginning of the year, Natixis Crédit Euro has reported performance of 3.04% as at April 24, 2009, versus 1.56% for its Barclays Capital Euro Aggregate Corporate reference index. As a reflection of the robustness of its investment process in the face of competitors, Natixis Crédit Euro at the end of March was ranked in the first quartile of the Bond EUR Corporates Lipper(4) category for 1 year, 3 years and 5 years bonds. In addition, the fund also has a Lipper 4 rating in the 3-year Regular Performance category. Performances net of fees as of 04/24/2009
3 months 6 months
1 year
3 years
5 years
YTD
Performance of Natixis Crédit Euro
1.95%
6.40%
-1.50%
-0.62%
7.00%
3.04%
Performance of the benchmark*
1.00%
3.75%
-1.07%
1.47%
9.32%
1.56%
Competitive positioning : Quartile** Difference
1 0.95%
2.65%
-0.43%
1 -2.09%
1
1
-2.32%
1.48%
*Barclays Capital Euro Aggregate Corporate reference index ** Bond EUR Corporates -Lipper category The figures mentioned refer to previous years.Past performance does not guarantee future results. Source: Natixis Asset Management, Lipper
(4) T he rating Lipper “Regular Performance” reflects the performance of a fund with a history of 3 years, adjusted by the short-term and long-term risk, with regard to all the funds of the same category Lipper. A noted fund "Leader" means that he is a part of better 20 % of his category and corresponds to the maximum rating 5, the least good funds being a contrario noted 1. Rankings it quartile: every fund is classified by quartile among a universe of funds marketed in the sale in France and belonging to the same category Lipper.
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product flash The current strategy of Natixis Crédit Euro and management prospects As at the end of April, the directional exposure of Natixis Crédit Euro was (+1). Indeed economic advanced indicators seem to us to mark a low point. At the same time, we are observing, on the primary market, still highly sustained flows, a healthy appetite from investors, attractive valuation and a lowering of the aversion to risk. Regarding sectorial allocation: • with financial bonds, management has shifted from light overweighting (+1) to overweighting (+2), owing to greater visibility with banking stock, buoyed by better results (growth in loans, increase in interest net margin, good performance from the primary and second markets…). This is a major turn-around after 6 quarters of heavy losses. In this frame, management is overweighted (+2) on the senior debt and slightly over-weighted on the subordinate debt. Indeed, the subordinate debt segment is revitalized by the issuers themselves who buy it back, thereby increasing their results and equity. • with non-financial bonds, we have moved from neutral (0) to slight overweighting (+1) by preferring the defensive sectors (telecoms, utilities, consumer business) and staying cautious with the cycle sector. “We feel that the credit market today is still very attractive”, emphasized Hanna Stekelorom, Head of Credit Investment team and portfolio manager of Natixis Crédit Euro. Main characteristics of Natixis Crédit Euro as of 04/24/2009
Breakdown by rating AAA
BBB-
2%
5%
Financials
10 % [3-5]
10 %
12 %
7%
22 % 20 %
AA-
TMT
<= 2
BBB+ 1%
Breakdown by sector
BBB
AA+ AA
Breakdown by maturity
A-
55%
52 % 3%
17 %
> 10
28 %
Defensive
9% AA+
15 %
13 %
A
]7-10] 11% ]5-7]
8%
Cyclical
Written on 04/30/2009
Natixis Asset Management : a major fixed-income player Golden Trophy - Best range of international bonds funds- Trophées des meilleurs SICAV & Fonds - Le Revenu 2009 May 2009 Natixis Asset Management awarded for the performance of its bond range over 3 years in the category “International bonds funds”, “network banks"(6)
Best Bond Group - Lipper Fund Awards 2009 (France) March 2009 Lipper gives Natixis Asset Management top ranking in the generalist category for the performance of its range of funds over 3 years(7)
1st prize Large Bond Group - La Tribune - Morningstar “Victoires des SICAV” Awards 2009 March 2009 France’s leading business and financial newspaper, La Tribune, gives Natixis Asset Management top ranking for the performance of its range of funds in the large bond group category over 5 years(8) (5) Senior and subordinated Debt The debt of the financial institutions decomposes into four groups: 1. Stockholders' equity Tier 1, or tier 1 capital. It includes common shares, preference shares and incomes put back in reserve. 2. Stockholders' equity Uper Tier 2, which contain revaluation reserves, general reserves(provisions) and instruments of hybrid debt. 3. Stockholders' equity Lower Tier 2, which concern the subordinated debt long term. 4. Stockholders' equity Tier 3, consisted of the subordinated debts runs term. (6) Category "Network banks" with European funds registered for sale in France and rated by EuroPerformance for at least three years as of 03/31/2009 (Source: Le Revenu). (7) Companies with funds registered for sale in France and rated by Lipper for at least three years as of 12/31/2008. (Source: Lipper Thomson Reuters). (8) Companies with more than 15 bond funds registered for sale in France and rated by Morningstar for at least five years as of 06/30/2008. (Source: Morningstar).
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product flash
Hanna Stekelorom - Head of Credit Investment team and portfolio manager of Natixis Crédit Euro Hanna Stekelorom is Head of Credit Investment team of Natixis Asset Management. Hanna joined the company in 1994 as a Senior Euro Credit Portfolio Manager. She began her career in 1983 with the Chambre Syndicale des Banques Populaires (a banking group) as a Project Manager on macroeconomic forecasts. In 1984, she joined the AFB (the French Banking Association) as a Project Manager on statistics. From 1987 to 1989, she was with Société Générale as an Actuary for fixed income portfolio investments. She then became a Financial Engineer on the capital market for origination of corporate issues in 1989. Hanna Stekelorom graduated from the Warsaw School of Economics and holds a diploma of advanced studies in Operational Research from the University of Paris IX - Dauphine. She also holds a Master's in Finance from the French business school Ecole Supérieure de Sciences Economiques et Commerciales (ESSEC). She is a CFA charter holder. Hanna has 25 years of professional experience and has been working for our company for 14 years.
C O R P O R AT E B O N D S
For further information n Your usual Natixis Asset Management sales advisers are at your disposal to answer any further questions n Find the Fund Product Profile under “Our Products” on our website at www.am.natixis.com
Natixis Crédit Euro Get the most out of the depth and diversity of the euro Investment Grade bonds universe
Active management combining four sources of performance Mainly invest in euro-denominated Investment Grade* debt securities, Natixis Crédit Euro aims to outperform the Barclays** Capital Euro Aggregate Corporate index, with a comparable level of risk, over a recommended investment period of 3 years. To this end, the investment team applies a conviction-based approach combining four sources of performance (directional exposure, sector allocation, diversification and issuer selection). Using a top-down approach, the investment managers set up strategies in three directions: directional exposure to the credit risk, sector allocation and exposure to diversifying asset classes, in which the fund can also invest up to one third of its assets for diversification and boosting purposes (assets not comprised in the index: money market instruments, government bonds, convertible bonds, high yield bonds). The management team formulates its strategies based on an analysis of macroeconomic factors, the credit market’s attractiveness and the market momentum.
KEY POINTS n An attractive universe: the Euro Investment Grade bonds n A conviction-based strategies based on the expertise of 32 professionals (portfolio managers, credit analysts, traders)
Lastly, for the issuer selection, the investment team combines fundamental analysis of the issuers, relative value of the issues and technical analysis.
Bond-picking: analysis, conviction and risk control
OVERVIEW
Natixis Asset Management’s Credit Sector Teams are cross-divisional task forces comprising specialist managers, financial analysts, economists and traders. Their task consists in providing technical expertise to all Fixed Income portfolio managers, by expressing opinions on their business macro sector: financial, defensive, cyclical and TMT (technology, media, telecoms). These opinions are expressed every month and consist of a score (-2 to +2) and a degree of conviction (strong or low). The 4 Investment Grade Sector Teams Financials
Defensive
Cyclical
TMT
Banks Insurance Financial Institutions
Utilities Consumer Goods Retail Tobacco Pharmaceuticals Services
Automobile Industry Means of production Energy Real Estate Leisure
Telecommunications Media Technology
An investment universe of ~300 issuers, followed by Natixis Asset Management teams, which represent over 1,100 issues
Investment universe Mainly Investment Grade debt securities, euro-denominated Benchmark Barclays** Capital Euro Aggregate Corporate Minimum recommended investment period 3 years Risk indicator Sensitivity between 0 and 8 * bond issues rated at least BBB- or Baa3 (Standard & Poor’s/Moody’s) ** ex Lehman
For diversifying assets, the team bases its decision on recommendations by other specialised sector teams (e.g convertibles etc). Thanks to Sector teams, portfolio manager takes profit of collegial decision to implement conviction based strategies. The credit analysts closely monitor the eligible issuers and track any changes in notations, alerts, or other warning indicators. The Risk Management Division constantly monitors the respect of the eligibility criteria of securities admitted into the investment universe.
Intended for professional clients only
Disclaimer This document is intended for professional clients. It may not be used for any purpose other than that for which it was intended and may not be reproduced, disseminated or disclosed to third parties, whether in part on in whole without prior authorization in writing from Natixis Asset Management. No information contained in this document may be interpreted as being contractual in any way. This document is produced purely for informational purposes. It is a presentation created and prepared by Natixis Asset Management based on sources considered to be reliable. Natixis Asset Management reserves the right to change the information in this document at any time without notice, and in particular anything relating to the description of the investment process, which under no circumstances constitutes a commitment from Natixis Asset Management. Natixis Asset Management will not be held liable for any decision taken or not taken on the basis of the information in this document, nor for any use that a third party might make of the information. The Fund is authorized for sale in France and possibly in other countries where the sale is not contrary to local legislation. Prior to any investment, investors must check that they are legally authorized to invest in a Fund. The risks and fees connected to investment in a Fund are described in the relevant prospectus. The prospectus and periodic documents are available from Natixis Asset Management upon request. The prospectus must be given to the investor prior to the subscription.
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