THE BIG
GRAIN DRAIN R. K. LUNA
NATRAJ PUBLISHERS New Delhi • Dehradun
Contents Dedication Preface 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15.
Changing Punjab Unsustainable Agriculture Loss of Agro Diversity Perils of Pesticides Sustaining Productivity Going Organic Groundwater Realities Canal Irrigation and Water Logging Drying and Dying Rivers Shrinking Wetlands and Village Ponds Degraded Forests The Vanishing Wildlife Urbanisation of Punjab GM Crops Preparing for Climate Change Annexures Index
1 31 57 75 99 131 153 183 205 223 245 267 289 317 333
PREFACE
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he story of Punjab can be best exemplified by my village Ucha Dhakala, situated in Bari Doab, in the border district of Gurdaspur. There were agricultural workers, farmers, village artisans, carpenters, blacksmiths and cobblers, all working in perfect harmony during the early seventies. The fertile soil was used to grow a number of food grains, millets, sugarcane, cotton, vegetables, pulses and oilseeds by the farmers, with the surplus being sold in the market. The fertility of the soil was maintained by adding farmyard manure. Artificial fertilisers from the market were not used. The farmers and their families worked jointly to till the fields, without any additional input from the migratory labour. During the peak season, the landless provided the necessary labour component on a produce-sharing basis. The village was a self-sustaining unit with people living in perfect harmony with nature, never complaining about shortage of agricultural inputs, electricity or water. There was sufficient water in the village wells for irrigating the fields and household needs. The village pond was the scene of activity throughout the day. The cattle used to cool their bodies in the pond as the young boys learned swimming and enjoyed a ride on cattle back. Turtles and fish were plenty in number and cleaned the waters. The dabchicks and the murghabis waded through the ipomea and kana thickets grown all along the boundary of the pond. The house sparrows kept the women busy in protecting the grains, the vultures became natural scavengers of the carcasses of dead animals and made the natural system working.
PREPARING FOR CLIMATE CHANGE “We do not inherit the Earth from our ancestors. We borrow it from our children.”
– Chief Seattle
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he origin of man can be traced back in the warm, relatively benign climate of equatorial Africa, but our ancestors battled the cold, harsh and unforgiving climate of the last Ice Age which ended some 10,000 years ago. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has suggested that planet Earth is warming at a faster rate as compared to climate changes in the historic past.
Global Warming The basic features of global warming were first noted by the French Scientist Jean Baptiste Fourier in 1827 who observed that certain gases trapped heat in the atmosphere and called them ‘green house gases’. He discovered that Earth’s atmosphere act like the glass walls in a greenhouse which let the sun’s rays in, and prevent warm air from escaping. Arrhenius took the matter further and discovered that carbon dioxide and water vapour warmed the planet. It was also found that apart from water vapour and carbon dioxide, methane, ozone and nitrous oxide act like a blanket around the Earth, trapping energy in the atmosphere and caused it to warm enough to support life. Some of the green house gases such as carbon dioxide occur naturally, and are emitted into the atmosphere through
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natural processes, but other green house gases, like fluorinated gases are created and emitted solely through anthropogenic activities. Burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, urbanisation and agricultural activities, all produce green house gases. Because of accumulation of more green house gases in the lower atmosphere, more quantum of heat is being trapped. This makes the Earth warmer. The enormous demand for electricity is another reason for global warming. The growing population of the Earth and the increasing number of refrigerators, air-conditioners and other appliances all increase the demand for electricity and electricity is also generated by burning coal and this also generates green house gases. Some farming practices release more methane, a toxic greenhouse gas, much more dangerous than carbon dioxide. Cattle belching of rice fields, decomposition of organic matter, use of fertilisers and burning of crop residues, forest fires all emit large quantities of green house gases.1 Many factories produce long-lasting industrial gases that do not occur naturally. It also contributes significantly to the enhanced green house effect and global warming*. In the urban area, green house gas emissions are the resultant effect of generation of energy, vehicular emissions, industrial activities and burning of fossil fuels.
Green House Gases There is strong evidence that suggest that the levels of several atmospheric green house gases have increased over the past 150 years. In 1958, since when the first continuous carbon dioxide monitoring
* To understand climate change we need to know the terms climate change, global warming and green house effect: Climate change is a change in the statistical properties of climate system when considered over long periods of time, regardless of cause. Global warming refers to surface temperature increases while climate change includes global warming and everything else that increasing green house gas levels will affect. Green house effect is the process by which absorption and emission of infra red radiation by gases in the atmosphere warm a planet’s lower atmosphere and surface of the Earth. The air inside a green house is usually warmer than the outside air because the glass walls of a green house let in sunlight and have the ability to trap heat inside it. This phenomenon is called green house effect.
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alarming rate. The concentration of methane in the atmosphere is presently 1.7 ppm, more than double the 1850 value. Ice core analyses show that the levels of this emission remained fairly constant during the 2000 years prior to industrialization. The present day concentration of nitrous oxide is about 0.31 ppm, which is 8 per cent higher than pre-industrial times.2 Chlorofluorocarbons are exclusively of human origin and are recent additions to the Earth’s atmosphere. They have been studied intensively not only because of their green house effect but because they are depleting stratospheric ozone. Ozone is a protective sheath in the stratosphere that protects us from the ultra-violet radiation of the sun. Ozone depletion can have many serious consequences such as increase of infectious diseases, spread of malaria, affecting growth of planktons and many climatic changes. Increases in the levels of carbon dioxide and other green house gases in the atmospheric can have far reaching consequences. They include increases in average temperatures and changes in precipitation, changes in number of frost free days and the frequency and severity of storms. There is also the likelihood that ocean levels may change. Since the 20th century, the Earth’s mean surface temperature has increased by about 0.8ºC, with about two-thirds of the increase occurring since 1980. Warming of the climate system is evident and the scientists are definite that it is primarily the result of increased concentration of green house gases produced by human activities. Climate model projections summarized by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has indicated in its Fourth Assessment Report that during the 21st century, the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 1.1 to 2.9ºC for their lowest emissions scenario and 2.4 to 6.4º C for their highest.3 As a result of global warming, there are strong indications that seasons are shifting, glaciers are melting and hurricanes and storms are becoming more intensive and frequent. Antarctic glaciers are melting faster than previously thought which could lead to an unprecedented rise in sea levels. The biggest west Antarctic glacier, the Pine Island Glacier, is reported to be moving 40 per cent faster than it was in the 1970s, discharging water and ice into the ocean.
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In the Himalayas, which feed many of the world’s greatest rivers including the Ganges and the Brahmaputra, many glaciers are shrinking and others appear to be growing. As glaciers shrink, the quantum of fresh water available also decreases and if this process speeds up, it could lead to severe drought and famine. On the other hand, melting of glaciers faster in North West United States, South West Canada, Hindu Kush of Himalayas, the Arctic and Andes, may cause flooding as the melted ice feeds the respective rivers.4 The Indian Network of Climate Change Assessment (INCCA) under the Ministry of Environment and Forests, a comprehensive network of 125 research institutions spread over the country, in its report in 2010, has indicated an increase in the annual mean surface air temperature in 2030s with respect to 1970s ranging between 1.7ºC to -2.2ºC with extreme temperatures increasing by 1.4ºC. The report further indicated that India may face floods which would be 30 per cent more severe in magnitude and also heightened drought conditions, which may affect crop yields, damage dams and infrastructure. In fact, the report indicated that the frequency of droughts is already increasing, especially in the Himalayan region where the degree of severity had increased by more than 20 per cent since the 1970s.5 The study further substantiated that there is no country in the world that is as vulnerable as India to many adversities of climate change. The study also found that apple production in Himachal Pradesh and Jammu & Kashmir is expected to fall by 2030. Two other studies-one commissioned by Green Peace titled “Blue Alert: Climate Migrants in South Asia” and other by the UN called “In Search of Shelter” have warned that climate impact on subsistence herding, farming and fishing will force millions of people to flee areas faced with rising seas, floods and drought with the increased melting of the Himalayan glaciers in 40 years. In Jammu & Kashmir, the people are already experiencing the heat, as the saffron crop yield have fallen by almost half since 1996, as a result the area under saffron cultivation has fallen down by 40 per cent. Major factors like change in temperature, rainfall pattern, increase in carbon dioxide levels and surface runoff have important and
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differential global effect on agricultural productivity where some areas may gain, others will lose significantly.6
Projected Rise of Temperature in Punjab In Punjab region, a few studies have suggested that there are likely to be perceptible changes in climate.7 Analysis for Amritsar district based on monthly mean data available for the period 1949 to 2000, indicates an overall decrease in annual maximum and minimum temperature during this period. The average maximum temperature decreased by -1ºC during the 41 year period or at the rate of -0.02ºC annually and the annual average minimum temperature decreased by -0.4ºC during the same period.8 Analysis of temperature data for Ludhiana district for the period 1970-2004 indicated a decrease in mean annual maximum temperature, but increase of 0.07ºC per annum for the annual minimum temperature for the three decades.9 The basin level studies which provide a broader picture and hence more reliable data are projecting wider changes in temperature. At present, the Sutlej river basin situated in Punjab part experiences a temperature range between-2ºC to 40ºC. The studies show that the annual mean maximum temperature is expected to increase by 1.0ºC1.8ºC with respect to the base line in all parts of Punjab by 2021-50. The study further shows that by the end of the century, the mean maximum temperature may increase further by 4.0ºC to 4.4ºC. The annual mean minimum temperature is also projected to rise by 1.92.1ºC by mid century with respect to base line (1961-90), and it is likely to further increase by 4.4ºC to 5.1ºC at the end of the century.10 The projected changes in temperature range in respect of the Sutlej basin show that the whole basin is going to warm significantly, with minimum temperatures rising more significantly in some of the high altitude regions in the north and east of the basin. If the All India Base scenario is taken into account, the projected increase in minimum temperature in the winter months is double that of the maximum temperature. Various studies therefore make it clear that temperature is projected to increase all across the basin by about 1.7ºC to 2.0ºC and that the increase in minimum temperature is likely to be more than the increase in the maximum temperatures.11
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Effect on Rainfall Change in temperature will also have significant effect on the precipitation in many subtle ways. Several studies show that the rainfall pattern is changing in Punjab. Analysis of data for the period 1901-2009 have indicated an increase in annual rainfall with clear seasonal variations. While in winter period, the average rainfall decreased by -9.5 mm in these 108 years, in the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons, the rainfall registered an increase. The increase was 1.8 mm in the pre-monsoon per se and +55.6 mm increase in monsoon season. The frequency of extreme rainfall events* were also showing increasing trend during the southwest monsoon from June to September. This is supported by the analysis of data for Amritsar and Ludhiana districts. In Amritsar, the average rainfall increased by 150 mm between 1949 and 2000 indicating an increase of +3.7 mm per year. Except in the post monsoon period which showed a marginal decrease, there was increase in the pre-monsoon and monsoon rainfall. In Ludhiana, the annual rainfall revealed a significant increase at the rate of 6.6 mm/year over the past three decades (1970-2004). Spatial variation of rainfall was also observed in the Sutlej basin. Towards the lower end of the basin, the precipitation is lesser than 400 mm, compared to the Shiwalik region where it is greater than 950 mm. The whole basin is projected to receive increased precipitation with most of the increase in the monsoon season and the maximum increase in the foothills of the Himalayas, where the precipitation is also the highest. Very significant increases in precipitation to the extent of 25 per cent or more are projected in the mid-century scenario in the foothills. The number of rainfall days between 100-150 mm/day could increase by 1.2 to 1.8 times in the Shiwalik region of Punjab. Similarly, the rainfall events with precipitation greater than 150 mm are projected to increase by 1.2 to 1.5 times in the same region. * Extreme events are categorised by Indian Meteorological Department as (i) light to rather heavy rainfall (0<Rdâ&#x20AC;?64.4 mm), (ii) heavy rainfall (64.4<Rdâ&#x20AC;?124.4 mm) and (iii) very heavy to exceptionally heavy rainfall (R>124.4 mm). Rainfall events> 124.4 mm are referred as extreme rainfall events (Pattanaik and Rajeevan, 2010).
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According to the study by ADB, the lower end of the Sutlej basin is likely to experience increase in precipitation by more than 50 per cent. As a result of overall increase by about 27 per cent with respect to base line, the annual average surface run-off is likely to increase by about 49 per cent and 34 per cent increase in annual average evapo-transpiration which may be attributed largely to increase in temperature.10
Future Water Scenario in Punjab There are many implications behind the projected scenarios. Expecting 50 per cent more precipitation by the end of the century in the western parts of the basin will mean that water logging conditions in the south western region of the state may intensify. Increase in heavy precipitation events are likely to cause more flash floods and increased soil erosion. The indication that in parts of the basin surface run-off would double, would offer opportunities for increased water harvesting and ground water recharge. The concern should, however, be the impact on drainage and flood risk that are expected to increase. Increase in melting of glacier and precipitation in the form of snow expected up to mid century thereby increasing the availability of river water. But as after 2050s, glacier melt as well as snow precipitation is likely to reduce, it will affect the river flow and inflow of water into the reservoirs like Bhakhra and Ranjit Sagar Dam. The State of Punjab therefore needs to address its water management issues keeping in view these projections. Due to the complexities of the water systems, interrelationships of various climatological elements, biological communities and the demographic situations, no quantitative assessment of the changes can be done definitively. However, whichever scenario unfolds, the need to conserve groundwater is a critical issue that needs to be considered in the present as well as in the future. As the scenario of dependence on groundwater continues, the recharging groundwater needs to become the most important activity for the state to meet the increasing demand of water due to rise in population as well as
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to major degradation in water quality conditions due to increase in oxygen-demanding source discharges. The study further found that even when the discharges were at safe permissible levels set by pollution control agencies, there will be a significant decrease in DO levels due to the impact of climate change on temperature and flows. 12 Considering that it is established that with warmer temperature, the snow fed rivers of Punjab are likely to have initially faster flows, and then it will decrease, it is expected that the pollution build up will be higher in the rivers and later on when stream flows are low even if the existing percentage level of removal of pollutants is done. The Sutlej River is the longest of the five rivers that flows through north-western India. It contributes significantly to make the per hectare food grain production the highest in the country at 4148 kg, ha.13 Since the last one decade, production of wheat has remained stagnant around 15 million tons, which is attributed to maintenance of intensive agricultural practices. However, higher winter temperature, is detrimental to wheat crops.
Effect on Yield of Crops Detailed studies on the basis of 20 years data considering various soil and water parameters in different climatic zones of Punjab have indicated that climatic fluctuations such as continuous or abrupt changes in minimum temperature along with increased variability in rainfall during winter is one of the causes for stagnation/or decline of wheat yields in Doab region of Punjab. Productivity was found to be declining mainly in high-productivity zones.14 Recent studies by the Punjab Agricultural University using simulation models have on the other hand shown that with an increase in temperature by 1.0ยบC to 2.0ยบC, the simulated yield in rice and wheat decreased by 2.82 to 9.59 per cent and 13.76 to 22.87 per cent from normal yield, respectively.15 The normal conditions were generated based on observed data for a 30 years period up to 2006. (Table15.2). Though in general, with rise in temperature up to 2-3ยบC, increase in yields can be expected in temperate latitudes, rise of above 3ยบC, the negative
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value may be less, as plants grown experimentally in CO2 enriched environments tend to have reduced nutritional value, tougher leaves, and higher concentrations of defensive chemicals such as tannins and phenolics.
Effect on Horticultural Crops Horticultural crops are sensitive to temperature. Studies have shown that production and quality of fresh fruit and vegetable crops can be directly and indirectly affected by high temperatures and exposure to elevated levels of carbon dioxide and ozone. Higher temperature induced ripening will make the produce, especially fruits to have less storage life on trees/plants. Photosensitive crops like onions, are likely to mature faster leading to small bulb formations. High temperature may reduce tuber number and size of potato. In Punjab, the future climate scenario projects that the potato yields are likely to increase by 7.31 per cent by 2020 (at 1ยบC and 400 ppm CO2), and by +3.6 per cent by 2050 with respect to current climate17 (Figure 15.2). However, negative effects because of carbon dioxide accumulation in the atmosphere can be expected on the post-harvest quality of potato-causing tuber malformation, occurrence of common scab and changes in reducing sugar contents in potatoes. In other fruits, enhanced carbon dioxide concentration may have variable effects on different types of horticulture produce. For example, experiments conducted in growing citrus fruit under a carbon dioxide enriched environment showed a large and sustained increase in the number of fruits produced by orange trees and small increase in the size of the fruit. For fruits that are mostly dependent on insect pollination, onset of flowering in plants and the first appearance dates of pollinators have to be matched, but it has been observed that in several cases they appear to advance in response to temperature increases.
Effect on Trees and Forests The implications of carbon dioxide enhancement on growth and yield of trees and forests are still unclear. But laboratory studies on
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growth rates and yield of plants grown in elevated carbon dioxide environments have documented increased rates of photosynthesis, lowered plant water use requirements, increased carbon sequestration and increased microbial activity. These result in higher rates of nitrogen fixation, thereby stimulating growth.2 However, in a natural ecosystem, where animals graze on plants, disease organisms cause damage and trees die and plants compete for available light, water and nutrients, there are serious doubts that production would actually increase. In addition, higher growth and yield could be offset by higher losses due to fire, insects and diseases. As the structure, composition and biomass of forests respond to changing climate, so will the response of fire. Some expected changes include increases in the frequency and severity of fire and lengthening of the season susceptible to fire, in areas which are already fireprone.18 Due to increasing temperature, the moisture content of surface fuels is lowered, while fallen woody material, loosely packed leaf litter contributes to build-up and spread of surface fires. An increase in losses in forests due to attack by insects and diseases could become one of the first observed effects of climate change. Evidence of this can be found in the past instances of epidemics which are the result of stress brought about by periodic drought or excess rainfall. In a given location, higher temperatures could result in more generation of insect pests per year, thus increasing the destructive potential. A higher incidence of droughts, storms, deep freeze events or periods of excess rainfall will put additional stresses on trees and forests making them more susceptible to attack by pests and diseases. This phenomenon has already occurred in Punjab during the period 1996-2006, when heavy mortality of Shisham and Kikar trees was observed. Studies conducted by the Forest Research Institute and the Dr. Y.S. Parmar University of Horticulture and Forestry, Solan, had concluded that environmental factors were the key factors among the pre-disposing factors for the fungal pathogen and insect pests, which affected physiological functions and morphological characters. The analysis of meteorological data revealed that some environmental factors like fog, relative humidity and frost played a significant role towards
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large scale mortality of these trees. On an average 35.37 per cent kikar trees in the state were found dead. There was substantial increase in average relative humidity from the period of 30 years (1950-1980) to the period under study (1996-2006). Similarly, there was an appreciable increase in fog days and hours as compared to the period of 1950-1980. The frost days have increased progressively and this was responsible for creating extra chill conditions for plants. The severity of fog and frost, which continued for weeks continuously resulted in the weakening of the plant system to perform normal physiological functions. Under these conditions, young plantations of 1-5 years old died outrightly.19As many of these plantations are established with material representing a narrow genetic base, they were unable to adopt to the changing environmental conditions. When temperature and rainfall patterns change, the ranges of animal and plant species also change. For each 1ยบC of warming, tree ranges in the northern hemisphere have the potential to move 100 km northwards while southern boundaries retreat.2 The impacts of climate change on forests in India has been assessed on the changes in area under different forest types, shifts in boundary of forest types and Net Primary Productivity.20 Under the climate change Mid Century scenario (2021-50), the dominant vegetation in the Punjab region will be temperate evergreen broad leaf forests/ woodlands, temperate conifer forests or deciduous forests. The study evaluated that 4.9 per cent of the total forest area are likely to change their vegetation type expectedly in the Shiwalik hills. However, there were no detailed studies about the susceptibility of the specific forests or trees to climatic changes which might bring changes in the tree composition and the forest floor. Shifts in the ranges of tree species could be important for several reasons. First, there are indications that climate could change faster than some tree species can respond through migration. Second, new sites may not be edaphically suitable for the migration of species. And finally, future climate zones, leading to displaced forest ecosystems will not be related to current political boundaries and land use patterns. Shifts in the natural range of animals and plants
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will take place in response to the requirements of individual species. Further, species may shift longitudinally as well as altitudinaly. As the climate warms, species will shift upwards, which will mean that Punjab will have more scrub forests than ever before. Shifting may also affect the susceptibility of trees like Shisham and Kikar to more hazardous factors for survival.
Effect on Livestock Apart from the agricultural, horticultural and forest crops that are likely to be affected in the changing climate scenarios, the livestock will be more susceptible. This is partly because the Punjab has lost most of its also indigenous cattle breeds and replaced them with cross-bred varieties and partly because livestock are already in a mild to severe stress conditions. To assess the comparative stress conditions, a composite Temperature Humidity Index has been prepared for all over India. The Temperature Humidity Index (THI) is a good indicator of heat stress. Animals are comfortable at THI between 65 and 72, but are under mild stress when THI is above 80. In Punjab region, the annual average THI is between 70-73, indicating that livestock are already in a mild to severe stress conditions between the period March to September when the maximum temperature increases beyond 25ยบC, with heat stress levels being highest in the month of May. The higher THI in general has a negative implication on milk production, reproduction process and disease prevalence amongst livestock.21 It is well known that indigenous animals can tolerate higher temperatures more than crossbred and still be productive.22 Exposure to both Sahiwal and Holstein Friesian crossbred under natural environment and at extreme temperature conditions has proved that Sahiwal was more tolerant than the crossbred. Poultry is highly affected due to increase in temperature. Not only mortality increases with high temperature, but also there is a reduction in the fertility and hatchability of the hens. Studies show that as the ambient temperature reaches above 34ยบC, the mortality due to heat stress becomes significantly high in heavy meat type
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chickens. Egg production also reported to decrease. The body temperature of broilers increased from 41º to 45ºC as the shed temperature rose from 28º to 42ºC and the critical temperature at which the birds succumbed to death was 45ºC, which could easily reach at the shed temperature of 42ºC.23 For many direct effects of temperature rise, poultry husbandry will be fraught with many risks.
Urban Environment Increased temperature can not only affect the agricultural productivity in the region, but can have pronounced effect on the urban environment also. The urban heat island effect is likely to escalate with increase in ambient temperature. As urbanisation increases, changes occur in their landscape. Buildings, roads and other infrastructure replace open land and vegetation. Surfaces that were once permeable and moist become impermeable and dry. These changes cause urban regions to become warmer than their rural surrounding, forming an “island” of higher temperatures in the landscape. Heat islands occur on the surface and in the atmosphere. Surface urban heat islands are typically present during day and night, but tend to be strongest during the day when the Sun is shining. Atmospheric urban heat islands are often weak during the late morning and throughout the day and become more pronounced after sunset due to the slow release of heat from urban infrastructure. The annual mean air temperature of a city with one million people or more can be 1ºC-3ºC warmer than its surroundings.24 Studies carried out in the National Capital Region on urban heat island effect have found such variations. During such a study, the heat island intensity was found to be more both in the night at 9.00 PM (2.8ºC to 8.3ºC) and afternoon hours at 3.00 PM (3.8ºC to 7.6ºC) respectively in comparison to early morning hours at the time of minimum temperature period (4.1ºC to 5.6ºC). The higher heat island intensity around the time of peak temperatures in the city both in the afternoon hours and night hours increases the energy demand resulting in the generation of more anthropogenic heat and thereby increasing the heat island intensity.25 Higher temperatures in summers in turn bring additional demand
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for energy for cooking and add pressure to the electricity grid peak periods of demand. One study estimates that the heat island effect is responsible for 5 to 10 per cent of peak electricity demand for cooling buildings in cities.24 The vicious circle does not end here as increasing energy demand generally results in greater emissions of air pollutants and green house gas emissions from power plants. Higher air temperatures also promote the formation of ground-level ozone. Warmer days and nights, along with higher air pollution levels, can contribute to general discomfort, respiratory difficulties, heat cramps and exhaustion, non-fatal heat stroke and heat-related mortality. The Global Burden of Disease Study, 2010 published by British medical journal Lancet in December, 2012 has revealed that human mortality caused by forces of nature (read climate change) has increased five-fold since 1970.
Need for Strategic Action Plans There is need to formalate a stategic plan to ensure food security for the countrymen, to maintain the supplies of water both for production of crops and for human consumption as well as to save biodiversity. The strategic action plans should respond to the predicted climate change both for adaptation and mitigation.* Such * There are two overall approaches to responding to predicted climate change; adaptation and mitigation. These approaches apply to all sectors involved in the climate change issue. Adaptation is concerned with responses to the effects of climate change. It refers to any adjustment, whether passive, reactive or anticipatory that can be adopted to ameliorate the anticipated expected or actual adverse consequences effects of climate change. Adaptation also includes taking advantage of any possible beneficial effects such as longer growing seasons which might allow planting of certain crops at higher altitudes. Many adaptation policies make good sense regardless of climate change because present day climate variability and extreme climate events, such as droughts, severe storms and floods already cause significant damage. Adaptation to these events can help reduce damage in the short-term strategies regardless of any long-term changes in climate. Mitigation or â&#x20AC;&#x153;limitationâ&#x20AC;? attempts to address the causes of climate change. It achieves through actions which prevent related increases in levels of atmospheric GHGs by limiting current and future emission sources and enhancing potential sinks of GHGs. Both adaptation and mitigation strategies should be considered in an integrated approach when designing responses to climate change.2
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plans should have short-term and long-term targets for all sectors laying down prioritised actions. The approaches must be based on the principles of long-term sustainability involving landscapes and watersheds, scale of vulnerability and the livelihood issues on the top-ranking priorities. The Government of India has already released its policy on Climate Change in its National Action Plan on Climate Change, having eight missions viz, National Solar Mission, National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency, National Mission on Sustainable Habitat, National Water Mission, National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem, National Mission for a Green India, National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture and National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change. As the impacts of climate change manifest locally and as also the point sources of emissions that can be targeted to achieve the domestic goals of reducing emission intensities are spread over the different states, every state is required to formulate and prioritize feasible strategies and actions that can be made operational. Punjab should therefore develop strategies which address these concerns as well as the concerns of climate change. The main aim of these strategies should be however to promote conservation of soil, water and energy. The sectors that are crucial for Punjab are agriculture, water management, forests and biodiversity, urban habitats and enhancing the energy efficiency and reducing its dependency on thermal power. The first task should be to develop the stateâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s objectives and the quantifiable targets to be achieved for attaining the objectives in tune with the national objectives of the eight national missions. Under the Water Mission, Punjab should aim to develop a state water policy to undertake an integrated resource management to improve water use efficiency, augment the depleted groundwater especially in the critical and semi-critical areas taking advantage of the excess rainfall anticipated, prepare for enhanced water logging situation in the south and south-western districts of Punjab, control water pollution and ensure equitable distribution of water across the state. A more challenging task confronting Punjab will be to maintain the water flow in the rivers, and contain the excess run-off through harvesting to fill the depleted aquifers of the State.
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In agriculture, the State must have a strategy to promote crop diversification of area under mono-cropping of rice and wheat, efficient resource utilisation, appropriate use of technologies and inputs for sustainable production of food grains through enhanced research and development activities. It also should adopt integrated pest management practices to reduce the use of pesticides that are creating havoc in the underground and surface waters. The State also have to promote sustainable management practices to recycle the agriculture crop residues to maintain the nutrient balance as well as to reduce the emission of green house gases. In the enhanced scenario of carbon dioxide concentration the state should take advantage of the efficiency of utilization of C3 versus C4 crops. There is immense scope for value addition of crops for generation of employment for the rural youth. Increasing area under horticultural crops such as potato and fruits will also have the dual benefit of enhancement of yields as well as to reach the goal of crop diversification.11 Special efforts could be made to develop the kandi area into a horticulture belt. In the research and development sector in agriculture, there will be many challenges before the scientists to develop rice cultivars that use less water, are drought resistant or develop cultivars that can grow in deep waters as per the circumstances. Both anticipatory approach to rectify the adverse consequences of climate change, and participatory research with farming families for developing adaptation and mitigation measures are important. Producing enough food for meeting the increasing demand against the background of reducing resources in a changing climate scenario, while minimising further environmental degradation is a challenging task. In some cases, traditional wisdom of adapting to climatic stresses such as resorting to mixed cropping, changing varieties and planting times, by diversifying sources of income for farmers, and maintaining buffer stocks of food for managing periods of scarcity will be helpful. Simple adaptations such as change in planting dates and crop varieties could help in reducing the impacts of climate change to some extent. These however, may not be always easy to implement due to constraints associated with unpredictable
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nature of climatic extremes and availability of seeds of adapted varieties. There are large yield gaps in many crops and bridging them could assist in strengthening food security of the region and reducing vulnerability to climate change. Fragile seed sector, poor technology dissemination mechanisms, lack of adequate capital for inputs and poor markets and infrastructure are the main reasons for yield gaps. In most cases, new genotypes that are tolerant to multiple stresses like drought, floods, heat, salinity and pest-load imposed by changing climate will be needed. There will be need to stock several adaptive traits in a suitable agronomic background.26 This requires substantial breeding efforts, including collection, characterization, conservation and distribution of appropriate genetic material among breeders and researchers. In the hostile environmental conditions, it will be another surmountable task to preserve the germplasm of various crops for future use of humanity. The reducing population of birds and wild animals will be more difficult to revive unless the specific areas are reserved under the wild forests. Extending the area under forests and tree cover may be more difficult under the prevailing conditions unless land-use policies are changed and wood-based industries get a hold in Punjab. Some of the floral and faunal species in Punjab are already under threat, for which special strategic action plans for in situ and ex-situ conservation are required to be drawn. For enriching biodiversity of the forests, afforestation activities have to be considerably extended. Additional element of this programme will be the identification of plants that are indigenous to the Shiwalik region and evaluation of its economical values and plan their rehabilitation. Punjab has to take special efforts to build infrastructure in the urban areas to accommodate the maddening rush of vehicles, increasing population and the migratory labour. To reduce the effects of urban heat island effect, new policies have to formulated, capacity building has to be enhanced and structural designs of buildings have to be modified and should be followed up. Punjab has to develop capacities for handling short, medium and long-term climate related diseases especially diarrhoeal diseases, respiratory diseases
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and heat and cold and stress management. In the urban areas falling in the Sutlej basin flood plains, to combat flash floods, drainage infrastructure has to be put in place. The rain water harvesting has to be made a habit in the urban areas immediately. For managing the increasing burden of urban solid waste, infrastructure capacity has to be considerably enhanced.11 Waste management has to be undertaken in a sustainable way through recycling and generation of power. For smooth movement of traffic, enhancement of public transport systems, infrastructure for rapid transport corridors, building separate tracks for different category of vehicles, and intelligent transport systems have to be introduced. Sector wise climate change challenges and strategies AGRICULTURE Diversification of crops according to suitability in different climatic zones. Enhanced CO2 Take advantage of efficiency of utilisation environmentof crops C3Versuss C4, Develop cultivars utilizing enhanced CO2. Proliferation of new Adopt Integrated Pest management pests and diseasesControl, develop cultivars resistant to new pests and diseases. Emission of GHG gases- Stop burning of residue of crops, diversify crops. Promote zero tillage method of cultivation. Horticultural crops Increase area under horticulture crops such as potato and Kinnows to harvest more yields Droughts and floodsDevelop cultivars of rice that can be grown under deep waters and some under drought conditions. Promote alternate wetting and drying method for irrigation of rice fields
1. Climate changes2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
1. Enhanced heat stress-
LIVESTOCK Preservation and promotion of indigenous hardy species of livestock, Development of resilient crossbreds with
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2. New pests and diseases-
3. Shortage of fodder-
4. Climate risk-
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indigenous stock, manage heat stress through providing housing to avoid extreme heat to livestock and poultry Develop Integrated Pest Management for livestock species, monitoring of pests and diseases and develop preventive measures. Estimate additional requirements, grow evergreen fodder legumes and trees, divert additional areas for raising fodder Encourage farmers to have a mix of small ruminants to ensure protection from climate risk, develop climate based livestock husbanding-systems.
FISHERIES Renovate, rehabilitate village ponds, develop new lakes/tanks in waterlogged/ saline areas for development of fisheries 2. Shifting of spawning of Assessment of impact of climate changes, some fishidentify species which could be grown in lower latitudes.
1. More runoff in southwest districts-
FORESTS 1. Changes in vegetation types and shifting of species-
2. Increased hazards of wildfire-
AND BIODIVERSITY Selection of species and provenances best adopted to existing site conditions. Develop tree improvement programmes to create planting stock from a broadgenetic base with high growth rates, better form and adaptability to wide range of site conditions. Increase the capacity to develop modern fire management programmes including prevention, pre-suppression planning and suppression. Reduce reliance on one or two tree species in afforestation and reforestation programmes, accelerate timber salvage and fuel management programmes to reduce the hazard of wild fires.
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3. Threats of insects and diseases-
4. Threats to biodiversity-
Design insect and disease monitoring programmes, detecting changes in the biology, ecology and natural ranges of pest species Establish in-situ and ex-situ reserves of key forest species to ensure a gene pool of sufficient variability for tree improvement programmes with the objective of developing varieties capable of adopting to climate change. Conduct studies on effects of fires, insects and alien species on biodiversity and determine the degree of disruptions in the self-repairing process of vegetation systems due to climate change.
URBAN HABITATS 1. Flash floods in the south- Bridge drainage infrastructure gap, western flood plainsincrease rainwater harvesting systems in the urban areas, increase water recharge capacity and build up adequate waste management system to avoid clogging. 2. Enhancement of Develop capacities for short, medium and respiratory and long-term disease forecast and vector diseasessurveillance systems. Improve sanitary conditions in the urban areas. Develop special programmes on diarrhoeal, respiratory diseases and heat and cold stress. 3. Heat island effectsIncrease green spacing in the urban areas, develop capacity building of architects and builders to construct energy efficient buildings 4. Warming of river water Devise a policy for ensuring enough water and enhanced level of flows to dilute the enhanced pollutant pollutionloadings, revise standard levels of pollutants that can be released from the industrial and domestic waste water discharges in order to make rivers less polluted in a climate change scenario
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1. Increase in rainfall in the western parts of Sutlej basin and likelihood of increase in floods during south west monsoon.â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 2. Enhanced water logging situation in the south west of Punjab â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 3. Reduction of precipitation in the Rabi Season-
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WATER Augment surface water resources by expanding areas under ponds, lakes and reservoirs to accommodate rainfall and runoff Develop effective drainage system for excess water. Develop crops that grow under new conditions. Promote agroforestry under bio-drainage system. Develop adequate institutional efficient water resource augmentation, conservation and distribution. Develop crops that grow under extended drought conditions. Undertake a focused approach to augment groundwater especially in the critical and semi-critical areas.
There are, therefore, a number of challenges for Punjab in the climate change scenario. There is a greater need to understand the climate change processes, its implications on various sectors, and the vulnerabilities associated with the same to enable the state to develop adaptation measures and mitigation strategies. A large part of current understanding of impacts is based on generic global scale assessments since there are relatively only a few regional studies. Indigenous research is needed to understand the probable impacts in the state especially on native crops such as legumes and oil seeds, and key weeds, pathogens and insects. A reliable and timely early warning system of impending climatic risks could help in determining the potential insecure areas and communities. Such an early warming system could be based on information developed using modern tools and space technologies and is especially critical for monitoring movements of insects and pathogens. At the same time, contingency plans should be developed for different types and durations of risks for various agro-ecological regions in the state with due consideration to the required response time and available resources. Punjab being an agricultural state, the strategies that maximise
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synergies between adaptation, mitigation, food production and sustainable development would be more appropriate. References 1. 2. 3.
4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9.
10.
11. 12.
13. 14.
Flannery, Tim (2006). The Weather Makers. Grove Press, New York. Ciesla, William M. (1995). Climate Change, Forests and Forest Management. FAO Forestry Paper 126. FAO, Rome. 1995. Teehl et al., (2007). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Global Climate Projections. Section 10. Es: Mean Temperature. IPCC ARY WGI 2007. Manorama Tell Me Why? June, 2012 Vol. 6 No 9. Title No 69. Sharma, Vibha (2010). Temperature rise to hit water, forest, health. The Tribune. November 17, 2010. Chahal, S.S. (2009). How climate change may affect agriculture. The Tribune. December 3, 2009. 1MD (2010). Climate Profile of India, 2010. Indian Meteorological Department. Anonymous (2012). State Action Plan on Climate Change for Punjab. Government of Punjab. Prabhjyot Kaur et al., (2006). Annual and seasonal climate variability at Ludhiana, Punjab Journal of Agricultural Sciences. Vol 6 No 1. pp 39-45. ADB (2011). TA-417 IND. Lower Satluj sub-basin Punjab. Prepared by ADB as support for the National Water Mission of the NAPCC for the Government of India and State Government of Punjab. Government of Punjab (2012). State Action Plan for Climate Change. Rehana, S. and Majumdar, P.P. (2011). River water quality response under hypothetical climate change scenario in Tunga Bhadra river, India. Hydrological Processes. Published online by Wiley online library. Punjab State Profile (2011). As quoted in PHD Research Bureau from RBI and Ministry of Agriculture Sources. Chandna, P.; Sidhu, B.S.; Punia, M.; Ladh. J.K. and Gupta, Raj (2009). Impact of climate variability on high productivity wheat region of Punjab. ISPRS Workshop proceedings. Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture.
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15. Sidhu and Hundal (2011). Assessment of Impacts of climate change on rice and wheat in Punjab. Report submitted to NATCOM II, MoEF, Government of India. 16. Jalota, S.; Ray S.S. and Panigrahy, Sushma (2009). Effects of elevated CO2and temperature on productivity of three main cropping systems. Workshop on: Climate change on Agriculture. 17. Singh, J.P. and Lal, S.S. (2011). Climate and Potato production in India. ISPRS Archives. Workshop proceedings: Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture. 18. Luna, R.K. (2006). Principles and Practices of Forest Fire Control. International Book Distributors. 9/3 Rajpur Road, Dehradun. 19. Luna, R.K. (2006). Study on mortality of Kikar (Acacia nilotica) in Punjab. The Indian Forester. March, 2006. 20. Gopala Krishnan, Ranjith; Mattangi, Jayarama; Govindasamy, Bala and Ravindranath, N.H. (2011). Climate Change and Indian Forests. Current Science. Vol. 101 No 3. 21. NATCOM II, 2012, MoEF, GOI. 22. Agarwal and Upadhayay (1997). Pulmonary and cutaneous evaporative water loss in Sahiwal and Sahiwal x Holstein cattle during solar exposure. Asian Australasian J. Anim Sci. 10; 318-323. 23. Annual Report (2010-11). Project Directorate on Poultry, ICAR, Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India. 24. Akbari, H. (2005). 251k. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. p 19. 25. Mohan, Manju; Kandya, Anurag and Battiporolu, Arunachalam (2011). Urban Heat Island Effect over National Capital Region. Journal of Environmental Protection, 2011, 2. pp. 465-472. 26. Aggarwal, Pramod Kumar (2010). Managing impacts of global climate change. The Hindu Survey of Indian Agriculture, 2010.