October 2021 - National Cattlemen

N A T I O N A L CATTLEMEN

To be the trusted leader and definitive voice of the U.S. cattle and beef industry.

OCTOBER 2021 • Vol. 38, No. 1 • NCBA.org

MARKET SNAPSHOT WEEK OF 9/25/2021

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CHOICE BOXED BEEF

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IN THIS ISSUE 3

LEADERSHIP COMMENTS

NCBA’s CEO and president share the latest victories and our continued battles in D.C.

4

EDUCATION

6

AWARD WINNERS

8

WEATHER

Cattlemen and women honored at the annual convention for their efforts.

Continuing from September’s issue, we highlight the 2021 BQA winners.

How to address the megadrought.

12

MARKET MATTERS

14

FEDERATION

Meat consumption isn’t growing as rapidly as in the past.

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Reaching consumers through new and unique avenues.

Delivering Results for Members in Washington, D.C. When you switch on cable news or talk radio, it can feel as though there is a fresh crisis in Washington, D.C., every day. This perpetual sense of urgency is often mismatched to reality. Soundbites might take only minutes to go viral but real, meaningful changes happen at a slow and steady pace.

“When you look at important NCBA victories like repealing the 2015 ‘Waters of the United States’ rule, delisting the gray wolf, or preserving the step-up in basis for farmers and ranchers, none of those happened overnight,” said NCBA Vice President of Government Affairs Ethan Lane. “Fending off disastrous policy changes and securing wins that have a tangible impact on our members takes weeks, months or even years of work on the part of our team in Washington.”

How does NCBA carve out a path to success for our members, especially when the terrain and end point are far from certain? Engaging proactively and regularly with decisionmakers is critical to NCBA’s ability to deliver concrete wins.

“The constant dialogue with members of Congress, leaders in the administration and policymakers at agencies like USDA and EPA is why our team does the work that we do, and why NCBA is better-represented in the policy conversation in Washington than any other association in agriculture. We take the directions that we’re given by our members through the grassroots policy process, and then we move the ball the forward – yard by yard – until we are where we need to be,” Lane said.

One issue that exemplifies this slow-but-steady march toward results is NCBA’s work on taxes.

For months, lawmakers have been determining where to get the funding for the Biden administration’s massive “Build Back Better” spending plans, and tax hikes on family agricultural operations are on the short list. In mid-September the U.S. House Committee on Ways & Means considered legislation proposing roughly $2 trillion worth of tax increases as part of a budget reconciliation bill. Eliminating stepped-up basis would be a major revenue raiser and as such, has been one of the main provisions of the tax code on the chopping block. After months of NCBA-led pushback, the House Ways & Means Committee ultimately preserved stepped-up basis in their bill, a significant first victory for cattle farmers and ranchers.

Stepped-up basis comes into play during the generational transfer of family farms and ranches. When an operation is passed on to an heir, stepped-up basis essentially resets the basis of the asset’s value to the current fair market value at the time of the owner’s death. This matters because farms and ranches typically stay with one owner for decades; during that time, the value of land often grows exponentially. Treating that appreciation in value as a taxable event – paired with the estate tax – hits heirs twice with an enormous tax burden.

The House package now being debated in Congress also includes an expansion of the Section 2032A Special Use Valuation, for which NCBA has long advocated. The 2032A provision allows producers to elect to value their land based on its actual use or productive value in agriculture, not on the price tag it would fetch if sold to a developer. That lower figure is then used to calculate the family’s estate tax burden.

The budget reconciliation bill has a long road ahead before becoming law, and the Senate may still revisit misguided

proposals the House failed to consider. NCBA knows that preserving stepped-up basis and expanding 2032A will ultimately help more farmers and ranchers stay in business and will be fighting for producers every step of the way.

Another steady drumbeat in Washington has been a focus on climate and environmental issues. President Biden made clear before taking office that addressing climate change would be a keystone issue of his administration – and from day one of the transition, NCBA was at the table to make cattle producers’ voices heard.

“Our approach to these kinds of issues has to be twofold.

We are pushing for priorities that have been outlined by our members, and we’re also spending a lot of time defending wins that were secured during the previous administration.

That second piece is often overlooked, but it’s vital to hold the line for our members – and we’ll go to court to accomplish that, if necessary,” Lane said.

NCBA is involved in litigation to defend the delisting of the fully recovered gray wolf and to fight for much-needed reforms to the “Waters of the United States” rule. We are leading the industry by setting voluntary, member-driven sustainability goals. We are also working to shut down insidious legislation in Congress that is designed to regulate animal agriculture out of existence. We are directing and redirecting the administration constantly to make sure that the implementation of the “America the Beautiful” or 30x30 plan prioritizes the needs of our members – and doesn’t infringe on their private property rights.

This multifaceted strategy has yielded real results. The cattle industry is the loudest — and sometimes the only — voice from agriculture represented in many of the key discussions happening at USDA and EPA on all these issues and more.

Sometimes the most tangible wins we deliver for our members don’t cover new territory. Every month since the beginning of the pandemic, NCBA has successfully fought to secure an extension of the exemption from hours of service (HOS) regulations for livestock haulers.

Transporting live cattle in a manner that is humane, safe and efficient is a top priority for our members and livestock haulers. Transportation directly impacts animal safety and well-being, as well as the security of a reliable, efficient beef supply chain.

The existing HOS regulations for livestock haulers limit on-duty time to 14 hours, with a maximum drive time of 11 consecutive hours. The driver must then rest for 10 consecutive hours before returning to duty. For the great majority of trips made by our livestock haulers, this is simply not enough drive time to accommodate the realities of hauling live animals across the country. NCBA is working hard to ensure federal regulations are flexible enough to allow our drivers to do their jobs safely and humanely, while keeping grocery store shelves stocked with beef.

“Many other trade associations would not put in the hours, over and over, to secure this exemption for well over a year now,” Lane said. “This is a perfect example of an issue that’s not very flashy, but NCBA’s persistence has made a real difference to the bottom line of many of our producers. That consistent groundwork is what sets us apart.”

NATIONAL CATTLEMEN 3

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Your Story Makes All the Difference

Breathe Easy.

By Jerry Bohn, NCBA President One of the most unique aspects of our industry is the importance of legacy. For many of us, our accomplishments today are thanks to the generations before us that acquired and improved land. While many of us work on the same land as our fathers and grandfathers, we are seeing a new generation of cattle producers joining our industry for the first time. For everyone in the cattle industry, a fair tax code is essential to our success.

Throughout the summer, Congress and the White House have been negotiating a series of infrastructure proposals with the potential for a high price tag. Farmers and ranchers have always paid their fair share, but the federal budget can’t be balanced on the backs of our nation’s producers. We have repeated that message early and often in the halls of Congress as NCBA fights to protect long-standing tax provisions that support family farms and ranches.

As co-chair of the Tax Aggie Coalition, NCBA recently spearheaded a letter to Congressional leadership urging them to maintain crucial agricultural tax provisions like stepped-up basis, like-kind exchanges, the Section 199A small business deduction, and the current estate tax code provisions.

Nearly 330 trade associations signed on to the letter demonstrating to Congress that agriculture stands united.

The current tax situation is important to more than just producers, it impacts consumers as well. With more than 370 million acres expected to change hands in the next two decades, preserving these important tax provisions supports future producers and protects access to safe, abundant and affordable foods for consumers.

NCBA is fighting to limit the tax burden and protect producer profitability, but the strongest tool we have is you sharing your personal story with your elected officials.

Often, members of Congress do not

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understand the unique structure of familyowned farms and ranches. Tax changes being discussed in Washington will impact agricultural operations much differently than traditional wealthy estate owners.

Your elected officials should hear how tax proposals will impact you, and I encourage you to continue being a voice for sound tax policy.

Another issue impacting our profitability is “Waters of the United States” (WOTUS). NCBA has long fought against the extremely harmful 2015 WOTUS rules that vastly expanded government authority over producers’ stock ponds and irrigation ditches, covering them in government red tape. In 2020, the Trump administration finalized the Navigable Waters Protection Rule (NWPR) to undo the damage caused by the 2015 WOTUS rule. NWPR limited federal overreach and finally provided some regulatory certainty to cattle farmers and ranchers. NCBA defended NWPR in court on numerous occasions but in August, a federal court in Arizona struck down NWPR. This decision has left the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to return to the pre-2015 WOTUS rules and regulations causing further uncertainty for producers.

Over the coming months, the Biden administration will be crafting new WOTUS rules and NCBA is actively monitoring the rulemaking process to ensure that your voice is heard by the White House, EPA and the Army Corps of Engineers. When the EPA and Army Corps held public listening sessions on WOTUS just a few weeks ago, I was happy to see NCBA members and state affiliates sharing their perspective with policymakers and urging the agencies to consider clear regulations that reduce the burden on cattle producers.

We have said it time and time again — the most powerful advocacy tool we have in D.C. is your real-world impact stories.

By making your voice heard on issues like taxes and WOTUS, you are preserving the success of our industry for generations to come. Thank you for being an advocate and for being part of NCBA.

Tell Your Legislators to Support Sound Tax Policy for Rural America

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Open your smart phone camera and scan this code to sign our WOTUS letter to the EPA! 2021 NCBA Leadership President Jerry Bohn President-elect Don Schiefelbein Vice President Todd Wilkinson Treasurer Joe Guild Federation Division Chair Clay Burtrum Federation Division Vice-Chair Brad Hastings Policy Division Chair Mark Eisele Policy Division Vice-Chair Buck Wehrbein Immediate Past President Marty Smith Chief Executive Officer Colin Woodall

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THE OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF NCBA

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Earning The Investment

By Colin Woodall, NCBA CEO they say or do, hence the term “influencer.”

As part of our Checkoff-funded work, we educate these influencers on the facts surrounding cattle production, the truth behind beef’s role in the diet and tips on how to prepare the perfect beef dish. This has been a very effective approach in reaching more consumers and clearly demonstrating the commitment we have to our animals, to our natural resources and to them as our ultimate customers. We take these influencers to cattle operations and give them first-hand experience to everything you do in raising cattle. We bring them to our Checkoff-funded culinary center to give them more tips, tricks and recipes for preparing beef. This prepares the influencers to promote our product. It also prepares them to defend our product. We saw the benefit of this program earlier this year when the foodie website Epicurious decided to stop sharing beef recipes because of their misinformed environmental perceptions around raising cattle.

I am sure Epicurious expected us to react because our job is to protect this industry, and that is exactly what we did through our Checkoff-funded efforts. What Epicurious did not expect was the backlash from our influencer friends. Celebrity chefs like Lamar Moore defended cattle and beef production and made it clear that Epicurious made a bad move.

Many others joined in our defense, and therefore, the impact Epicurious hoped to make was dashed. That is your Checkoff at work. That NCBA’s Checkoff-funded projects is NCBA at work as a Checkoff contractor. have a clear track record of success.

This is just one Just look at the work we have done example of the many projects we presented to establish and develop relationships to the BPOC. Others with food influencers. include e-commerce partnerships to sell more beef, continued exposure for the Beef. It’s What’s American Farm Bureau Foundation For Dinner. brand, more Beef Quality for Agriculture and the U.S. Meat Assurance (BQA) training, crisis Export Federation. The NCBA team management and the world-class demonstrated why our projects are a research we conduct. Our past sound Checkoff investment. We led performance as a contractor helped with our proposal to continue work us achieve funding for the upcoming in consumer information. NCBA’s Fiscal Year, but we did not get every Checkoff-funded projects have a clear dollar we requested. This shows that track record of success. Just look at the BPOC process works. There will the work we have done to establish be nine contractors doing Checkoffand develop relationships with food funded work over the course of the influencers. For those of you who are next year. not as engaged in social media, an Remember, Checkoff funds are influencer is somebody who has a not used for any of NCBA’s policy website, Instagram account, Facebook work. We have internal controls to page or other social media platform prevent this, and our work is audited where they post their thoughts on by the Cattlemen’s Beef Board and food, food production, recipes and USDA. The firewall between policy and other issues surrounding our diets.

Checkoff is one I will protect to the These individuals can be celebrity bitter end. We are proud of the work chefs, moms, restauranteurs and we do as a contractor to the Beef many others. In many cases, millions Checkoff, and we are committed to of individuals follow these influencers continually improving the work we do and make decisions based on what on its behalf.

Last month, NCBA went before the Beef Promotion Operating Committee, better known as the BPOC, to present our proposals on work we want to do as a contractor to the national Beef Checkoff. Contrary to popular belief, NCBA does not just “write a check” to itself with Checkoff dollars. As I mentioned in last month’s article, we are not the Checkoff; we must compete for every dollar awarded to us. Nothing is just given out, and as cattle producers who make the Checkoff investment, you should be proud of that.

The BPOC is made up of cattle producers just like you; the Checkoff was designed by producers and is run by producers. BPOC members are charged with evaluating proposals from different organizations that wish to do work on behalf of the Beef Checkoff. Each potential contractor submits a written proposal and then comes to the BPOC meeting every September to present their proposals. BPOC members evaluate these proposals on their merit, how they support the Beef Industry Long Range Plan and how they incorporate feedback from Checkoff committees.

The September BPOC meeting is long and intense, but the decisions made have long-lasting impacts on the beef industry. We competed against eight other organizations including the

Contributing Writers

Creative Director Graphic Designer

Wendy White Ashley Willits Hunter Ihrman Sigrid Johannes Don Waite Dancinee Jennings

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Contact NCBA: 9110 E. Nichols Ave., Suite 300, Centennial, CO 80112 (303-694-0305); Washington D.C.: 1275 Pennsylvania Ave. N.W., Suite 801, Washington, D.C. 20004 (202-347-0228). National Cattlemen’s Beef Association reserves the right to refuse advertising in any of its publications. National Cattlemen’s Beef Association does not accept political advertising in any of its publications.

National Cattlemen’s Beef Association does not accept any advertising promoting third-party lawsuits that have not been endorsed by the board of directors. ©2021 National Cattlemen’s Beef Association. All rights reserved. The contents of this magazine may not be reproduced by any means, in whole or part, without the prior written consent of the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association.

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NATIONAL CATTLEMEN

Mitigating Weather Related Stress in Beef Cattle

By Julia Herman, DVM, MS Beef Cattle Specialist Veterinarian, NCBA, a contractor to the Beef Checkoff As fall approaches, the heat of summer lingers in much of the country.

Cattle across industry sectors continue producing with the resources provided to them. As the weather transitions from hot days to cool days, there are strategies to help cattle transition and cope with these weather stressors.

The Checkoff-funded Beef Quality Assurance (BQA) National Manual provides guidelines in handling cattle in varying weather and optimizing animal welfare.

Grant Dewell, beef extension veterinarian at Iowa State University said, “Recognizing and preparing for weather stress ahead of time is critical as there is less a producer can do on short notice. Most mitigation strategies require prior planning and investment, such as shade structures or sprinklers, which producers should work into their yearly improvement plans.”

Heat stress and cold stress each have specific approaches that cattle producers can adapt to their individual operations.

Heat stress

By this time of year, hot days are no longer a surprise. Cattle producers managing cattle in feedlots or confinement are constantly assessing climate conditions to optimize the welfare of the growing cattle on their operations. This can include a variety of options depending on the yard’s facilities: • Pen rotation – Understanding the growth trajectory of pens can help determine where those cattle should be placed in the feedlot to maximize air circulation. This method requires planning and labor to rotate fat cattle, which are most susceptible to heat stress, to pens with the most air circulation.

• Water – One of the most effective ways to mitigate heat stress in any cattle operation is to provide fresh water at an appropriate flow rate. During heat events, water consumption can increase two to three times normal rates, so evaluating drinking systems at the beginning of the summer is important. Extra tanks may be needed if individual waterers or troughs are not providing enough space for the cattle. Be aware of aggressive animals that may not let other animals into water.

• Sprinklers – Another investment that can be important in heatstressed cattle, sprinklers can cool cattle through evaporative cooling and also cool the ground, thereby reducing radiant heat from the ground. Cost-to-benefit ratio of the sprinklers is a factor in

deciding if these are right for your operation. During drought years, like this summer, diverting water to sprinklers may not be a good option. There are options to store runoff water for sprinkler systems, though research would be needed to ensure the water is clean and will not contaminate the feed or environment.

• Shade – Providing shade is also an effective way to help cattle cope with heat stress. These physical structures must be designed to fit the yard or operation and maintained throughout the year which can be difficult.

• Feeding schedules – Changing the feeding times can help reduce heat production in growing cattle. Heat production from feed intake peaks four to six hours after feeding, according to Dewell. Feeding bigger meals in the afternoon or evening will allow peak rumination temperatures to occur at night.

Although it is controversial, backing the concentrate (and energy) out of a ration to decrease heat load has been shown to help.

• Transportation – It is recommended to transport and load cattle during cooler times of the day. Planning schedules with weather reports and understanding wind speeds for proper ventilation is integral to cattle welfare during transport.

Minimizing the time animals spend in handling facilities or waiting on the trailer are some mitigation measures. BQA discusses the Temperature Humidity Index (THI) which provides general guidance on using temperature and relative humidity to determine when to work or transport cattle.

Heat stress is less of an issue for cattle on pasture for a few reasons.

Cattle are not as finished as feedlot cattle and are able to dissipate heat more efficiently. They also can seek their own shelter or pick their own environment more readily which aids in heat stress mitigation. Shade trees or structures in or beside pastures can be a useful tool, given there is enough room for cattle to share space. Rolling hills can help cattle catch breezes depending on the time of day.

In general, cattle on pasture do not exhibit death loss due to heat stress. A hidden impact, Dewell cautioned, can be on fertility of both cows and bulls during the breeding season. If weather conditions are too hot, bulls may spend energy and time seeking shade rather than breeding females. Without proper thermoregulation, both semen in bulls and ova in cows and heifers can be negatively affected. Early heat events during the breeding season may impact fertility which may not immediately be recognized.

When setting up your breeding program, whether it is with natural service, artificial insemination or other advanced reproductive techniques, it is pertinent to evaluate weather forecasts and understand how that may affect the success of your breeding program.

For any sector, producers and teams should be cognizant of working cattle during hot weather. As recommended by the guidelines outlined in BQA resources, work cattle more prone to heat stress first thing in the morning or early in the day, or later if conditions are moderate. Limiting the amount of time cattle spend in the handling facilities where heat stress may be more significant is important. When making decisions to handle cattle one should consider a number of factors including facilities, labor, temperature, humidity, wind speed and cattle disposition.

Cold stress

Fall weather brings cool evenings and then cooler days. Preparing for the stress of lowering temperatures can improve success of an operation.

BQA reminds us that cattle exposed to cold weather have increased energy requirements and considering weather in addition to life stage will help producers plan for the winter months ahead. The lower critical temperature (LCT) is when cattle start using energy to maintain their body temperature and feed needs adjustment to offset that loss. Moisture versus dry coat also plays a role in performance needs. Some factors to consider include: • Shelter – Windbreaks and shelters, either natural or man-made, can be tools to reduce cold stress through wind, moisture and mud. Cattle will voluntarily seek out protection from inclement weather, and this protection will decrease energy needs. If installing shade structures for heat mitigation, consider if these can also be convertible to wind breaks during winter. Cleaning facilities and making sure cattle have a dry area to rest will help with comfort and reduce disease transmission.

Water – Even in cold weather, • providing clean, fresh and unfrozen water is important for thermoregulation. When water is restricted, feed intake will be reduced, and thermoregulation will be more difficult. Water requirements in colder months are a minimum of one gallon per 100 pounds of body weight.

Feed adjustments – Feed and • energy will need to match both performance requirements and maintenance requirements when the temperature drops. As a rule of thumb, for every degree the temperature is below the LCT, a cow’s energy needs increase

by 1 percent (Dewell et al. 2021).

Pregnant animals, lactating cows/ heifers, stocker calves or finished cattle all have specific energy requirements that depend on their environment. Work with your veterinarian, nutritionist or beef extension specialist to ensure your foods supply is providing the energy your cattle need and adequate body condition scores are maintained.

Feeding schedules – Just as with • hot weather, changing the feeding times can be used in cold weather to the animal’s advantage. Feeding cows in the late afternoon can help them get through cold overnight temperatures with heat production from rumination.

Bedding – Providing bedding in • severe conditions puts a barrier between the cattle and the frozen ground, so less energy is spent keeping warm. It can also aid with reducing lameness from the frozen ground and protecting testicles on breeding bulls from frostbite.

Cleaning and fresh bedding schedules should be adapted to minimize mud buildup.

Transport – In addition to adjusting • feed and energy rations to match increased maintenance requirements, keeping animals dry in the trailer will minimize cold stress during transport. This could include protecting cattle from moisture and mud buildup prior to transport or providing bedding in the trailer during extreme conditions.

Whether the temperature is rising or falling, cattle must maintain normal body temperature to sustain essential physiological processes. Cattle producers have long incorporated creative and effective ways to ensure welfare of their livestock in any season. For guidelines on how weather stress contributes to total quality management, check out the BQA Manual and other resources at bqa.org.

Dewell 2019. Prepare for Heat Stress Possibilities. https://www.extension.iastate. edu/news/prepare-heat-stress-possibilities (Accessed September 10, 2021).

Dewell et al. 2021. Caring for Cow Herds During Cold Weather. https://store. extension.iastate.edu/product/16101.pdf (Accessed September 10, 2021).

Drewnoski and Wilke 2019. Helping Cows Cope with Cold Stress. https:// beef.unl.edu/beefwatch/helping-cowscope-cold-stress (Accessed September 10, 2021).

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NATIONAL CATTLEMEN

Short Supplies Worldwide

By Don Close, Senior Animal Protein Analyst with Rabo AgriFinance While the U.S. cattle industry focused on its slaughtering bottleneck, it may have ignored other production constraints happening around the world.

The current situation – bridled supplies alongside robust global demand for beef — will most likely continue well into 2022, if not longer.

are currently so high that many producers are electing to continue to sell calves and yearling cattle instead of retaining females to rebuild inventories. Herd rebuilding is expected to take much longer than normal.

Cow liquidation has been ongoing since the herd size peaked in 2019. In 2021, the rate of cow liquidation has only accelerated, primarily due to drought conditions in western and northern states. Monthly feedyard placements have posted year-on-year declines for three consecutive months and will likely post a fourth. Fed cattle supplies should tighten the rest of this year and continue into next year.

Brazil

United States

Australia

Slaughter rates have been sharply below last year’s and historical levels due to supply constraints following years of drought. Cattle prices in Australia have broken every record imaginable. Prices

New Zealand

The implementation of a very aggressive environmental program has reduced beef production already.

With policies in place to reduce grazing livestock, cattle numbers are expected to continue to decline. Dairy continues to be a focal point of New Zealand agriculture, so future beef production will take the biggest hit.

Brazil continues to have the second largest cattle inventory in the world at 252.7 million head. They have been aggressively shipping product to feed China’s growing beef demand, currently notching out more than 30 percent of China’s beef imports. The aggressive export pace has caused Brazil to substantially oversubscribe its supplies of slaughter-ready cattle to China. At the same time, many regions have experienced drought conditions. Now, supplies are tight, and cattle and beef prices have risen sharply.

Argentina

The State of WOTUS Waters of the United States (WOTUS) is the policy issue that never seems to go away. For decades, cattle producers have been seeking answers from the federal government on what counts as a “water of the United States.”

We have endured years of litigation and policy rewrites, but now we are facing a new round of rulemaking led by the Biden administration.

Background

In 2015, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and Army Corps of Engineers finalized the WOTUS rule, which significantly expanded federal jurisdiction. Under the 2015 rule, isolated bodies of water (like stock ponds and

irrigation ditches) and temporary water features (like creeks that only flow after it rains) were subject to federal jurisdiction. This overreach negatively impacted many farmers and ranchers and agricultural groups banded together to oppose the 2015 rule.

In 2020, the Trump administration implemented the Navigable Waters Protection Rule (NWPR) to fix many of the issues with the 2015 WOTUS rule. The NWPR curtailed government overreach and limited federal authority to significant waterways (like bigger lakes and rivers).

Current Situation

NCBA supported the NWPR when it

Argentina has sharply curtailed beef exports in an effort to curb inflation rates. While they have continued beef shipment commitments to the U.S., the EU and Israel, they have essentially cut all other exports in half. The government says it is frequently reviewing its export policy. Realistically, RaboResearch expects export constraints to continue indefinitely, reducing available beef supplies for global trade.

Mexico

Mexico has been under heavy economic contraction driven by impacts of COVID-19. With drought conditions over much of the country, its cattle industry went through heavy liquidation in 2020, too. Both economic conditions and drought pressure have improved during the second half of 2021 so far, but the industry has not had the opportunity to rebuild cattle supplies.

Canada

Cow herd numbers have been contracting for years. They did see a modest increase in cow numbers in 2020, but drought conditions in western and central Canada will likely force renewed liquidation. At the same time, Canada has continued to place more cattle on feed, with the bulk of the increase coming from U.S. sources. Short hay and feed grain crops are expected to have a detrimental impact on both the cow herd as well as cattle-on-feed supplies starting this fall. was first enacted and defended it against activist litigation in court. Unfortunately, at the end of August, a federal court in Arizona struck down the NWPR. EPA has interpreted this court decision to apply nationwide and has announced it is implementing the pre-2015 WOTUS definition and guidance. This means the 1986 definition of WOTUS is effective today and will remain in effect until the Biden administration crafts a new WOTUS definition, a process that will take months, if not a year. NCBA is in close contact with the EPA and Army Corps to make sure that cattle producers’ voices are heard.

Future Action

For policymakers in Washington who have never set foot on a farm or ranch, your real-world stories can make all the

Globally Beef demand continues to be robust in North America, while China and southeast Asia’s demand continues to bolt ahead in growth terms. Meanwhile, for both the U.S. and global markets, supplies of beef are going to be restrained for the foreseeable future.

As the bottleneck for slaughter capacity slowly starts to improve, U.S. cattle producers should expect a better outlook right around the corner.

If you are interested in additional insights into the beef industry, find the closest Rabo AgriFinance office on www.

RaboAg.com.

Rabo AgriFinance is a leading financial services provider for agricultural producers and agribusinesses in the United States. Adding value through industry expertise, client-focused solutions and long-term business relationships, Rabo AgriFinance offers a comprehensive portfolio of services that gives producers the right products to prepare for and take advantage of market opportunities. This comprehensive suite includes loans, insurance, input finance and effective risk management products. Rabo AgriFinance is a division of Rabobank, a premier bank to the global agriculture industry and one of the world’s largest and strongest banks. Rabo AgriFinance is an equal opportunity provider.

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difference. When you share your story of how WOTUS impacted you, it informs rulemaking and helps government agencies craft policies with producers in mind. Please also remain engaged with your local elected officials and let your members of Congress know you support clean water and clear rules.

For more information on WOTUS, please contact Scott Yager (syager@beef. org) or Mary-Thomas Hart (mhart@beef.org).

Open your phone camera and scan this code to view and sign our WOTUS letter to the EPA!

2021 BQA Cow-Calf Award Winner

2021 BQA Dairy FARM Award Winner

2021 BQA Educator Award Winner

Deseret Cattle & Citrus in St. Cloud, Fla., doesn’t look like your typical cowboy operation.

“A Florida cowboy is different than a western cowboy — we all do the same job, but in a totally different environment,” said Jason Marriage with Deseret Ranch & Citrus.

The sub-tropical climate of Florida provides more challenges for Deseret Ranch than most cow-calf operations face. However, BQA is the cornerstone of Deseret Ranch’s animal welfare and handling program, and for the cowboys at the ranch, treating livestock right is not what they do but who they are.

Deseret Ranch owners and employees prioritize managing their herd and their land with the highest care, safety and animal handling practices. Deseret Ranch is also a model operation for working in harmony with the natural systems where they believe the land can fulfill many functions. They simultaneously run cattle, manage wildlife, produce citrus and harvest timber, all while fulfilling important environmental purposes.

“We want consumers to be able to look back into the history of the product and know that the animal was humanely treated,” said Clint Richardson, general manager for Deseret Ranch. “We want consumers to know that we followed BQA guidelines and that we’re doing the right things at every step of the supply chain.”

With each generation, Willow Behrer Farms LLC has grown and evolved, but one thing has not changed over the years — their commitment to quality.

Willow Behrer Farms was originally settled in 1892

by Charles E. Behrer. Today, the farm is owned and operated by Michael A. Behrer and his son, Allen M. Behrer, the fourth and fifth generation of their family to run the dairy in Spruce Creek, Pa. The dairy milks more than 1,000 cows with replacement females.

This farm’s commitment to continuous improvement led to the National Dairy FARM program, a BQAequivalent certification program. The dairy team uses technology to engage with their employees, many of whom speak Spanish as their first language.

Technologies like WhatsApp and YouTube deliver pre-recorded video training to more than 20 farm employees.

“Every video I make has three aspects to it: the inspirational side, the educational side and the directional or ‘how-to-do-it’ side, and the most important part of that is the inspiration,” said Pete Posnett, herd manager. “If you inspire someone, they are going to knock the socks off any goal you set.”

At Willow Behrer Farms, they make a choice to be innovative rather than complacent. The use of video tools, apps, proper employee onboarding and a bonus system has helped transform Willow Behrer into a superior team focused on the basics of BQA.

Hands-on learning and visual demonstrations are the foundation of Steve Boyles, Ohio State University (OSU) beef cattle extension specialist teaching methods.

To help with visual learning when educating students on the importance of BQA, Boyles obtained a grant in 2001 to have miniature corrals built. These make it easy to discuss corrals in a three-dimensional method where pieces can be moved around.

“Part of BQA is working cattle in corrals,” he said.

“The corral kit is about showing how to make a cattle handling facility better with the existing resources.”

He uses these miniature corrals to let producers indicate and decide the best methods when working and moving cattle.

Personally, Boyles has contributed immensely to the cattle industry. He helped develop, with a national BQA pilot project resource grant, a nationally recognized program designed to train first responders to better manage traffic accidents involving cattle transportation vehicles. Bovine Emergency Response Plan (BERP) is an award-winning program and is in high demand due to a lack of basic knowledge among the nation’s first responders.

Boyles loves being involved in and improving the cattle business. He is a valued member of the industry and an honorable recipient of the BQA Educator award.

For more information on each of the 2021 winners and the BQA awards, which are funded in part by the Beef Checkoff, visit www.bqa.org/about/bqa-awards.

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NATIONAL CATTLEMEN

Megadrought

By Matt Makens, Atmospheric Scientist That is the shortest headline you will read in this publication. The impact of the subject will be anything but short.

It is one thing to be in a drought, and it is another thing entirely to be in the situation the Western U.S. is in, currently. A megadrought grips the U.S., and it will take a long time to recover from the impacts.

Drought can be short or long-lived, but once a period of drought extends to cover decades, it becomes a megadrought.

For parts of the American West, current drought conditions have persisted for more than two decades.

Within any long-term drought or megadrought, you may find periods of wet weather. However, those are going to be brief and therefore only a temporary reprieve in an area. The southwestern U.S. has had some wet periods in the past 20 years but not enough to curb the impacts of a long-term drought.

Yes, drought does impact deserts, too; drought is relative to an area.

Knowing the American Deserts do have native life, we can track periods when that native vegetation begins to show drought stress. Water levels and soil moisture measurements, in addition to vegetative health, are used to determine areas of drought classification, even in those arid locations.

Around 2000, the Southwest began to dry out, impacts on agriculture and water resources increased and drought developed. It is now 2021, and the deficit remains, although we did see slight improvement this summer due to a hitand-miss monsoonal flow of rainfall. That monsoonal flow of moisture keeps this region ‘normal’. And, without a strong monsoon each year, the Southwest gets

drier and drier.

As pointed out in the July National Cattlemen, the monsoon has not consistently delivered typical precipitation year to year.

Every couple of years, you will also see differences in El Niño and La Niña conditions (El Niño will favor wetter periods for the Western U.S.), which create short-term periods of wetness or dryness. These either help or hurt the yearly monsoon. The multi-year drought situation we are in now goes far beyond these two scenarios, however. There are ocean and atmospheric patterns around the globe that develop over decades, not singular years, to impact regions for hundreds to thousands of years.

The oscillations with the most significant impact on the U.S. develop in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. These patterns either work together to bring short-lived periods of drought or work together in a way to bring drought conditions lasting decades. We are currently in the latter situation.

The last time in recorded history we saw a drought like this was in the 1500s (reliable drought data can go back thousands of years*). Within that period of record, we can find several very longterm droughts, i.e., megadroughts. Most megadroughts on record last between 20 to 40 years. A 50-year drought has occurred, and that drought of the 1100s was the worst of the past millennium.

In the past 1,000 years, we have had roughly seven other periods where the 30-year-average drought matched or was worse than what we have presently.

In comparison to that length of time, our current situation is worse than what we recorded in the 1930s.

Yes, the Dust Bowl was one of the most significant droughts during the past 1,000 years; however, the duration was

NCBA Region IV Report

By Charlie Swanson Region IV Vice President NCBA Region IV includes Arkansas Cattlemen’s Association (ACA), Texas Southwest Cattle Raisers Association (TSCRA), Texas Cattle Feeders Association (TCFA) and Oklahoma Cattlemen’s Association (OCA). The region is home to the number one and two cow-calf states in the United States, Texas and Oklahoma respectively.

Reporting for TSCRA, Jason Skaggs, executive vice president, reported the association held its annual meeting the last weekend of July in-person. They had a great turnout of attendees, more than 3,500 at the two-day event. They also had an excellent trade show. It was great to see everyone in-person this year.

Texas completed its legislative session at the end of May. Important bills were passed on rural broadband and reducing liability to ranchers for incidences involving animals and people on their property. Eminent domain legislation was passed but was not

lV

strong enough for the members. A truth in labeling (fake meat) bill died at the last minute on a procedural maneuver.

The next election season, especially the March primary, will be very important as all the statewide, elected officials, numerous state legislators and U.S. House members are up for reelection.

TSCRA held its annual policy conference virtually on Sept. 10. All the TSCRA policy committees met, and virtual attendees heard excellent general session speakers.

Spirts among TSCRA members are high as most have good pasture conditions throughout the state of Texas.

TCFA was reported by Ross Wilson, president and CEO. Members of the TCFA are continuing their efforts to increase negotiated trade and price discovery through the NCBA Industry Voluntary Plan (75 percent) plan.

The association continues its effort at addressing packer leverage. TCFA opposes the GIPSA Rule changes that remove economic test on harm to competition as proposed by the Biden administration. The cattle feeders have ongoing efforts to expand sustainable beef endeavors.

New work on climate change to help document and communicate the small level of methane emissions from cattle production becomes a carbon sink when combined with crop production and forestry.

The new census will result in two new congressional seats for the

much shorter by comparison.

To cut the length of our current drought and see the impacts ease a bit will take a lot of effort. First, frequent periods of El Niño need to occur. Oscillations within the Pacific and Atlantic oceans will also need to change to produce a few wetter decades versus drier ones like we have had recently.

To address the first option of at least short-term benefits, we need El Niño to develop, which we will see in 2022. The strength and timing of that development remain to be seen; however, odds favor El Niño by later 2022, which likely creates a wetter pattern for the Western U.S. for the snow season of 2022-2023.

A longer-term pattern, controlled by the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, works on the scale of decades. In this article, I will not get any ‘deeper into the weeds’, but the Atlantic may switch to a more favorable phase in the 2030s.

Moisture Outlook for October to December

Northwest: Look for the best moisture for the western half of Washington, an area that will receive normal to wetterthan-normal fall precipitation. Other than coastal Oregon, drier conditions are expected in this state. The far northern mountains in Idaho will get the best moisture, with much of the state receiving near-normal precipitation.

West: More frequently than not, this region will be below average in terms of fall moisture. The likelihood of a wet fall is 30 percent, historically.

Northern Rockies: The mountains of Montana and northwestern Wyoming will have the best moisture, with the rest of Montana and Wyoming near to below average. Hit and miss areas of valuable water will fall in North Dakota, South Dakota and Nebraska. However, these three states are only 25 percent likely to end fall wetter-than-average.

Southwest: Notoriously dry falls are likely when in this weather setup, particularly in Colorado. On the other side of the coin, in strong monsoon years — not this one — Arizona can frequently have wet falls. Given the monsoonal state of Texas. TCFA is continuing to try to hold on to all the rural seats in the state house of representatives.

Through a USDA funded grant, TCFA, four auction markets and four order buyers in Texas — working with the Texas Animal Health Commission — participated in a pilot project to expand animal ID and traceability. Work was done to test ultra-high frequency (UHF) backtags for use in livestock auctions to replace the paper tags used today. The recently concluded pilot was successful in documenting that the backtag allows the auctions to be a part of animal ID and traceability programs without requiring additional labor, extra handling or stress on cattle being sold. The new backtag simply replaces the old paper backtag, however, the UHF antenna in the tag is read by the UHF scanner in the auction and recorded in their computer system. At the next stop beyond the auction, a UHF or low frequency ear tag is applied to the animal and the two tag numbers are recorded in a database that would allow disease traceability if needed in the future. The participating auctions also see benefits of inventory management as cattle move through the auction and are shipped to customers following the auction. The pilot project report will be presented to USDA by the end of the year.

ACA Executive Vice President Cody Burkham reports that they held their 2021 annual meeting in July in Hot Springs, Ark. The trade show was sold out with 110 vendors and a record crowd.

Everyone enjoyed the opportunity to have an in-person meeting. More than

NATIONAL CATTLEMEN 9

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Nominations Now Open for the 2022 NCBA Leadership The NCBA Nominating Committee, chaired by the Past President Marty Smith and made up of two representatives from each of NCBA’s seven regions of the association, is seeking nominations for the following positions:

regime this year, Arizona is the only state in the region with a chance of nearnormal moisture.

South: Barring tropical systems that spread heavy rainfall through November, there is a low likelihood for much moisture here. The region is less than 30 percent likely to have a wet fall. Tropical systems — if developed — will favor eastern Texas to Louisiana, Arkansas and Mississippi.

Upper Midwest: Hit and miss areas of moisture are possible here. Given the current weather regime, Minnesota and the Upper Peninsula are more frequently wet than elsewhere in this region. In total, the area has a one in four chance of a wet fall. The driest in this region will be Iowa.

Ohio Valley: Only 25 percent of the region is likely to be wet this fall. Illinois and Missouri will be the driest states. Ohio and West Virginia will do the best overall.

Southeast: Another region that will do quite poorly unless there is tropical activity. Barring that, the odds of a wet fall are one in six. In similar years, south Florida does the best with moisture.

Given an active hurricane season thus far, there will likely be additional chances of moisture that would exceed expectation.

Northeast: Strong La Niña’s will dry this region out. Your odds are best for a wet fall at a 60 percent likelihood for those in the western parts of this area.

Lake effect can help those in New York as the system gets colder. Nor’easter activity is more likely after fall, but any remnant tropical activity can spread valuable moisture to the eastern parts of this region. In total, the region has a 40 percent likelihood of wet conditions. *Cook, E.R., Seager, R., Heim, R.R., Vose, R.S., Herweijer, C., and Woodhouse, C. 2010. Megadroughts in North America: Journal of Quaternary Science, 25(1), 4861. doi: 10.1002/jqs.1303 https://www.ncdc. noaa.gov/paleo/study/22454 800 members and guests were treated to six cattlemen’s college sessions, cowboy capers and annual awards banquet, in addition to conducting the general business of the association.

During the general business meeting, ACA amended its bylaws to allow for its third ACA collegiate association formed at Southern Arkansas University in Magnolia, Ark. New officers were also elected and include President Phillip De Salvo, 1st Vice President Scott Sullivan, 2nd Vice President Justin Smith, and Secretary/Treasurer Marcus Creasey.

Summer was very busy for OCA according to Michael Kelsey, executive vice president. OCA’s annual meeting and trade show was held in late July with a fantastic crowd and sold-out trade show. Three major pieces of policy were adopted in the business meeting, addressing live cattle marketing, the McGirt Supreme Court decision and medical marijuana. In August, OCA officers carried two proposed resolutions to the NCBA annual meeting in Nashville, Tenn. One was on live cattle marketing and the other on the McGirt Supreme Court ruling. This summer rounded out with the 38th Annual Ranch Rodeo which was a great success. Ten OCA member ranch teams were in the competition to see which team moves on the National Finals Ranch Rodeo in Amarillo, Texas. The major purpose of the Ranch Rodeo is to raise money for the Children’s Hospital Foundation. The funds raised are for children’s medical research and care. The OCA has raised more than $553,000 in the last 20 years for this great cause.

•

NCBA President-Elect

•

NCBA Vice President

•

Policy Chair and Vice Chair

•

Federation Chair and Vice Chair

•

Eight (8) Beef Promotion Operating Committee Members*

*The Federation Chair and Vice Chair automatically serve on the BPOC, as part of the 10 Federation representatives.

2022 NCBA Nominating Committee Chair Marty Smith, NCBA Past President FEDERATION POLICY Region 1 – Joe Horstman, IN Region 1 – Tim White, KY Region 2 – Paul Moss, TN Region 2 – John Langdon, NC Region 3 – Mark Malecek, MN Region 3 – Amy Radunz, WI Region 4 – Austin Brown, TX Region 4 – Stephen Diebel, TX Region 5 – Ea’mon O’Toole, WY Region 5 – Tom Hougen, MT Region 6 – Lucy Rechel, NV Region 6 – Colby Pace, UT Region 7 – Jerry Effertz, ND Region 7 – Mike Drinnin, NE According to the association bylaws, the current President-Elect, Don Schiefelbein, will automatically fill the office of President, succeeding Jerry Bohn.

For Nominating Committee questions, contact: Marty Smith, cmsmith@beef.org Todd Johnson, tjohnson@beef.org Deb Warren, dwarren@beef.org.

Application deadline is Wednesday Dec. 22, 2021 For more information, scan the QR code or visit NCBA.org/leadership.aspx

CME Beef Industry Scholarship Deadline November 12, 12:00am CST APPLICANTS MUST: •

Be a graduating high school senior or full-time undergraduate student who will be enrolled in a twoor four-year institution for the 2022-2023 school year.

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Have demonstrated a commitment to a career in the beef industry through classes, internships or life experiences.

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Include a Letter of Intent—write a one-page letter expressing/indicating your future career goals related to the beef industry.

•

Write an original essay—750 words or less describing an issue confronting the beef industry and offering a solution(s).

•

Provide two letters of recommendation—Provide two letters of recommendation from current or former instructors or industry professionals.

Individual applicant or their family must be a member of the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association.

For more information please visit www.nationalcattlemensfoundation.org

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HOW TO MEASURE THE NUTRITIVE VALUE OF YOUR FORAGE

BY JESSICA WILLIAMSON, HAY AND FORAGE SPECIALIST, AGCO Knowing the nutritional value of the feedstuff being fed to livestock is an often overlooked but critically important aspect of livestock management, especially if the diet is primarily forage-based. Testing the feeding quality of forages is the only way to know for certain the nutritional value of the feed.

Forage Quality vs. Forage Nutritive Value The term “forage quality” refers to a wide range of characteristics and variables, including forage species, intake potential, palatability, and anti-quality factors such as toxins and tannins. The main indicator of forage quality is animal performance. Forage “nutritive value” refers to the analysis of the individual constituents that make up a forage. The nutritive value can be determined from a lab analysis of a forage, which is the only true way to know the feeding value of a forage. Once a lab analysis is done, a better understanding of the suitability of feeding a certain forage to various classes of livestock based on their nutritional requirements can be determined.

Nutritive Value Constituents Understanding the nutritive components of a feed analysis can help to determine its suitability for feeding to various classes of livestock and if other feedstuffs are needed to meet the nutritional requirements.

The nutritive value of a forage is constantly changing with changes in forage maturity and weather conditions, so it is important to get a feed analysis performed prior to feeding so the correct nutritive value can be determined. This ensures that the forage meets the nutritional requirements of the livestock intended to be fed.

Dry matter (DM) is the concentration of a constituent in a feedstuff after the water content is removed.

Moisture is the percentage of water remaining in the feedstuff constituent.

Neutral detergent fiber (NDF) is the sum of all the plant cell wall (fiber) components – cellulose, hemicellulose, and lignin. As the plant matures, fiber components are deposited in the cell wall, reducing the ability for the plant to be digested and reducing the intake potential. The microbes within the rumen have the ability to break down some of the fiber components

found within the plant into a usable form of energy. Neutral detergent fiber is inversely correlated with intake – as NDF increases, the animal’s ability to consume feed declines.

Neutral detergent fiber digestibility (NDFD) refers to the portion of NDF in the plant that is digestible and can be utilized by the animal for energy.

Acid detergent fiber (ADF) is made up of the lignin and cellulose components of the cell wall. ADF is inversely related to digestibility – as ADF increases, the digestibility of the plant declines. As the plant matures, both NDF and ADF increase, making the plant less suited to meet the needs of young, growing stock or livestock in peak lactation.

Relative feed value (RFV) is a calculated value that takes into account the intake potential from the NDF portion of the plant and the digestibility potential of the ADF to derive a value. This index can be used to compare similar forages and use the index to match forages to classes of livestock in various stages of production. RFV does not take protein into account.

Crude protein (CP) is a calculation of elemental nitrogen present in a feed multiplied by 6.25, as proteins generally are comprised of 16% nitrogen (100/16 = 6.25). Crude protein encompasses all protein consumed, but does not tell site or rate of degradation and is critical for growth and metabolism.

Ash is inherently found in plants, comprising the mineral content (potassium, calcium, magnesium, and copper) as well as soil found on the plant – this could have either been splashed on the standing crop or incorporated during harvest during mowing, tedding, raking, or baling. Cool-season grasses inherently have about 6-8% mineral content and legumes have slightly more ash – about 7-9% of the forage constituents.

Non-fibrous carbohydrates (NFC) are the highly digestible components found within the inner portions of the cells, including (but not limited to) sugar, starch, and pectin. These carbohydrates are almost completely digestible and able to be utilized for energyfor the animal.

Total digestible nutrients (TDN) is a calculated value of the sum of the energy constituents of the feedstuff by assessing the digestibility of the organic matter. The TDN equation takes into account fiber components and protein, deriving a value that depicts the overall digestibility of the components of the feed that have an energy value. Matching TDN to the livestock’s nutritional requirements ensures that the digestibility, intake potential, and protein level of a forage are adequate to support targeted animal performance.

accounted for. This value can be used to understand the performance expected from the livestock consuming the forage, as more of the nutritive components of the feedstuff are accounted for.

Net energy of maintenance, lactation, and gain (NEm/NEl/NEg) are calculated values expressed as megacalories (Mcal) per pound and are expressions of energy value in a feedstuff. These megacalories refer to the feed’s ability to meet the nutrient requirements of the livestock being fed.

NEm refers to the energy required to meet the maintenance requirements of an animal. NEl refers to the energy available in a feedstuff for lactation after the maintenance requirements have been met. NEg refers to the energy available for livestock gains after the maintenance requirements have been met.

How Massey Ferguson Hay Equipment Can Help Targeting the best time to harvest forages based on projected nutritional value is one of the first steps to ensuring optimal forage quality. Harvest management and reducing harvest losses play a key role in conserving the available nutritive value in forages. At Massey Ferguson, we understand how important it is to feed livestock quality nutrition through quality hay.

Hesston by Massey Ferguson® hay tools help to reduce harvest losses and conserve the forage nutritive constituents through cutting edge technology.

The MF 4100 V RB Series round balers will meet your operation’s needs for baling densely packed dry hay or silage. Dense bales help contain the available nutrients in a bale and reduce dry matter loss – conserving the nutritive value of your forages and optimizing their feeding value.

Baling high-moisture hay for silage further conserves available nutrients as less nutrients are lost during the harvest process when handling wet plant material. Whether you have a cow-calf operation or a dairy, Hesston

by Massey Ferguson 4100 V RB Series round balers will meet your operational needs.

Dr. Jessica Williamson is the hay and forage specialist for AGCO. Jessica’s expertise is in forage quality, management and production, as well as ruminant nutrition and the plant-animal interaction. Jessica is responsible for designing and conducting field tests on hay and forage equipment; educating AGCO personnel and customers on forage management, production and livestock nutrition; and working with the Green Harvest team on ongoing forage projects.

Visit https://bit.ly/haytalk for more stories and to check out the new Massey Ferguson podcast Hay Talk.

Testing forages to determine their nutritive value can help identify the suitability of the feedstuff to various classes of livestock and can be a part of the puzzle to optimizing your livestock operation’s success!

Relative forage value (RFV) is a calculated value that takes into account all energy components of a forage. Fiber, fiber digestibility, protein, non-fibrous carbohydrates (sugars), fatty acids, and ether extract are

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Visit your local Massey Ferguson and Hesston by Massey Ferguson dealer today! *Currently only available for individual applicants. Subject to credit review and approval and other terms and conditions. All financing is in AGCO Finance LLC’s sole discretion. ©2021 AGCO Corporation. Massey Ferguson is a worldwide brand of AGCO Corporation. Hesston is a brand of AGCO. AGCO, Massey Ferguson and Hesston are trademarks of AGCO. All rights reserved.

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NATIONAL CATTLEMEN

Meat Consumption Declines

By Katelyn McCullock, Director of Livestock Marketing Information Center Total U.S. red meat and poultry consumption is set to decline for the first time since 2014. Consumption is a calculation done to estimate use. It takes into account disappearance and divides by population to determine an estimated per capita consumption.

The formula for each species is total supply plus imports minus exports minus ending stocks. Since 2014, this calculation has shown growth in per capita consumption in beef, pork, chicken, turkey and lamb, until 2020 when it plateaued.

The combination of moving trends placed total red meat and poultry consumption at just barely a new record high of 224.61 pounds per person in 2020. The new record high is impressive, given the slaughter disruptions faced in 2020 and the difficulties felt up and down the supply chain. Consumers cooking at home loaded new and old home freezers with product, which offset a substantial

Cents Per Pound 800 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100

amount of foodservice disappearance.

Trends in beef consumption reached the highest level since 2010 last year at 58.37 pounds per person. Pork consumption for the decade peaked in 2019 at 52.36 pounds per person and was the highest since 1999. Lamb consumption hit 1.22 pounds per person in 2020, the highest since 1994.

Chicken continued its march upward, increasing to 97.57 pounds per person.

Turkey consumption had a high point in 2016 at 16.42 pounds per person and has gradually slipped since then.

Three quarters through 2021, per capita consumption is expected to decline, in part because of some of the supply chain issues settling. This year total red meat and poultry is expected to decline nearly 4 pounds per person, with every commodity showing a smaller year over year figure. Next year, consumption numbers are expected to gain only half a pound per person across all the species. Poultry, though is expected to increase more than 2 pounds on chicken consumption.

Turkey is expected to continue its fifth

RETAIL PRICE COMPARISON Monthly

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All Fresh Beef

Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & USDA-ERS Livestock Marketing Information Center

US RED MEAT & POULTRY CONSUMPTION Per Capita, Retail Weight, Annual

Pounds 200 150 100 50 0

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Data Source: USDA-NASS and USDA-ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

year of decline in consumption per person. Lamb levels are expected to ease, as is beef and pork.

Chicken is well positioned to continue being a larger and larger share of the plate. Within the next five years, consumption of chicken in the U.S. will exceed 100 pounds per person.

In the short term, relative pricing at the retail level is expected to play a role, as beef, pork and lamb prices far exceed chicken cut prices. Those price differences can have large impacts if consumers are feeling financial pressure. Smaller supplies of beef and pork are expected to continue to support high prices. Per capita consumption for both those meats will decline as population growth exceeds supply growth.

Post-pandemic food trends are still emerging. The high demand for ground product last year will not remain indefinitely. Already in late summer, trimmings prices have eased off the high prices seen over the summer and may adjust further. Delta and emerging COVID-19 variants continue to be a concern to the average consumer, but high vaccine rates in the U.S should

2016

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insulate some of the demand changes seen in 2020. The rest of the world is another question.

The LMIC meat consumption forecasts are based on conservative export figures to the rest of the world.

Re-opening, new lockdowns and consumer and consumption trends may have slightly different paces in other countries, and they may not look the same or happen at the same rate.

There is still a great deal of uncertainty in the demand picture. Timing and supply pinch points have been difficult to predict. The supply side for U.S. production of red meat and turkey is unlikely to see large gains in 2022, which primes these commodities to stay at elevated retail price levels.

Consumers normally pull back from high rates of consumption when prices increase. Chicken is expected to expand supplies based on profitability estimates. Chicken prices at the retail level will be favorably positioned relative to beef, pork and lamb, and consumers are expected to continue demanding high volumes of chicken for this reason.

Leverage Turns – Slowly but Surely

By Patrick Linnell CattleFax Analyst Even before the Holcomb plant fire and COVID-19, the cattle industry faced leverage challenges as the cow herd expansion resulted in fed cattle supplies that exceeded packing capacity. These two unforeseeable events simply magnified the issue.

Moving forward, leverage will improve with cattle numbers pointed lower and packing capacity increasing.

Cattle inventories and leverage can be a slow ship to turn, but the trend clearly points to cattle segments gaining a higher percentage of the wholesale beef dollar in the coming years.

Additions to packing capacity have gained many industry headlines over the last year. Totaling the capacity additions, based on press releases and the companies’ stated intentions, there could be upwards of 7,500 head of daily slaughter capacity added in the next few years.

Capacity expansions often take longer than expected to come fully online due to the realities of construction, hiring, training and operational ramp-up periods. Additionally, not all intended expansions or new-builds come to fruition due to permitting or investment constraints. These challenges are especially true for new brick-and-mortar facilities.

For these reasons, CattleFax is currently using the conservative assumption that 5,000 head per day of fed cattle slaughter capacity will be added in the next few years.

Federal government support for small and medium-sized packing facilities will also support many of these projects reaching completion.

Even if the bulk of these facilities are individually small in processing numbers, their regional dispersion and collective slaughter capacity are significant.

On the other side of the equation, the beef cowherd is contracting, and 2021 is expected to be the third straight year of a declining calf crop.

Without the COVID-19 backlog, 2019 or 2020 would have been the cyclical peak in fed cattle slaughter. However, 2021 will be at or near the peak with around 26.5 million head of fed slaughter due to the cattle supply shift. Slaughter is expected to decline roughly 1 million head from the peak over the coming years, with half of the decline expected to come in 2022.

The exact depth and timing of the slaughter decline will be largely driven by drought patterns as well as how aggressively producers retain heifers when the expansion trend begins again.

Leverage gains are expected to occur through the end of the year, but

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the gains may be restrained through early 2022. Fed cattle supplies, while declining, are still generally large. At the same time, labor challenges that exist with current packing capacity suggest that finding new workers for new capacity will also be a big hurdle for the industry. Additional capacity will be added slowly, nonetheless, but the major gains may not come until

late 2022 or 2023.

Bottom Line: Declining cattle supplies and additional packing capacity will improve cattle producer leverage in the coming years. With strong beef values, driven by strong global and domestic demand, there is plenty of upside potential for prices of all classes of cattle over the next several years.

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NATIONAL CATTLEMEN

T H E F E D E R AT I O N O F S TAT E B E E F C O U N C I L S Building beef demand by inspiring, unifying and supporting an effective state/national Checkoff partnership.

Connecting with Consumers As the chasm continues to widen between where food is produced and where it is consumed, developing a direct relationship with consumers can be difficult. However, customers today yearn to learn more about the people behind their products, and they want to hear directly from farmers and ranchers. State beef councils offer a variety of platforms for producers to share their stories and bridge the gap between pasture and plate.

Reaching Consumers Through Nutrition Influencers Beef councils from Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska and Oklahoma hosted a select group of 17 registered dietitians from 12 states for a virtual Nutrition Adventure 2021. The Checkoff-funded event emphasized beef’s nutritional profile and culinary versatility through practical applications and interactive presentations and activities.

The attendees were selected given their high level of involvement on social media, blog platforms and within university dietetic programs.

Attendees learned about beef nutrition, including lean cuts of beef, and emerging human nutrition research. The event addressed misinformation during a presentation by registered dietitian Amy Goodson titled “Beef Facts: Taking Your Knowledge from Rare to Well-done.” Throughout the presentation, Amy challenged five common misperceptions about beef with practical advice in a myth busting format. As the attendees acquired new information about beef nutrition, interactive culinary experiences provided these health professionals with the tools to share their newfound knowledge with clients and patients.

On the first day of the virtual event, NCBA, a contractor to the Beef Checkoff, showcased how to stretch top sirloin steak three ways with a live cutting and cooking demonstration. Improving attendees’ skills in preparing beef enhances their effectiveness as they share new cooking skills with clients and patients inperson and on social media.

Nutrition Adventure professional development sessions also focused on key

areas such as sustainability, animal handling, and animal health and welfare through virtual ranch tours and a panel discussion with experts in the beef community.

Attendees explored the beef lifecycle with local ranchers who shared their operations through virtual ranch tours and made connections as producers answered questions about beef production. A high point for many participants was mingling virtually with beef community experts while putting together a beef charcuterie board and then transitioning into the expert panel discussion. The panel discussion had many takeaways and sound bites for the dietitian attendees to use with clients that are confused about beef production. Topics varied from humane animal handling practices to growth hormones.

The virtual event concluded with a presentation by Dr. Donald Layman, a leading protein research expert, who shared the importance of protein quality, quantity and bioavailability as well as the unique role beef cattle play within sustainable diets. Lastly, attendees took part in an interactive cooking demonstration with registered dietitian Carolyn Williams. Carolyn’s “edu-taining” approach highlighted the latest research surrounding lean beef consumption and the positive impact it appears to have on inflammatory markers and health improvements when incorporated into the popular Mediterranean eating pattern.

The high-quality food demonstrations left the audience both inspired and educated to incorporate lean beef into a variety of recipes.

Beef Headlines 2021 Sturgis Motorcycle Rally The South Dakota Beef Industry Council (SDBIC) participated in the 81st Annual City of Sturgis Motorcycle Rally, Aug. 6-15. Motorcyclists and attendees from all over the U.S. made their way to Beef Country for one of South Dakota’s largest events of the year.

South Dakota beef farmers and ranchers were highlighted at several different sites throughout the event.

Educational banners allowed Sturgis attendees to learn more about beef’s story, along with videos showcasing some of South Dakota’s beef farmers and ranchers. The SDBIC also sponsored the Mayor’s Ride which incorporated a thank you campaign into the event as South Dakota’s Highway Patrol and the troopers that serve the state were provided a thank you snack pack with beef jerky and

served a ribeye steak at their base camp.

The annual Beef Throwdown included a main street Burger Battle which featured five teams that paired Sturgis VIP Sponsors with South Dakota’s Beef farmers, ranchers and media partners as they battled for their chance to be the 2021 Beef Throwdown champions.

“The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally provided an opportunity to educate consumers on the importance of beef in a whole plate diet and have a little fun along the way as we featured our ranch communities and South Dakota’s hard working beef farmers and ranchers,” said SDBIC Executive Director, Suzy Geppert.

For more information, visit www.sdbeef.org.

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NEWS E-commerce Promotion Increases Beef Sales Shopping online for groceries continues to be popular with consumers. To promote beef to online shoppers, NCBA, a contractor to the Beef Checkoff, worked with Sam’s Club to create a ‘Kickoff to Summer Grilling’ e-commerce campaign that ran from mid-April through Memorial Day 2021. This initial campaign exceeded all metric benchmarks including sales lift, impressions and new buyers to the beef category. The campaign also had a Return on Ad Spend (ROAS or ROI) of more than $34, which means every Checkoff dollar spent on this media returned

more than $34 in beef sales.

Additionally, Beef. It’s What’s for Dinner. was featured through Sam’s Club during a ‘Kickoff to Tailgating’ e-commerce campaign to support beef sales for those stocking up on purchases for tailgating (or homegating) events. This campaign included onsite display and email marketing to club members.

Other e-commerce efforts include working with major national retailers to support online retail beef sales for the 2021 summer grilling season by exposing them to inspirational beef messaging and imagery at the digital

point-of-purchase using the Beef. It’s What’s for Dinner. brand. The goal was to strategically target message placement to those who are already shopping for beef and to those shopping for competitive proteins and complimentary products, like hamburger buns or condiments. Retail partners included: Walmart - digital media and messaging buy on Walmart’s digital platforms including on-site display on Walmart.com and on Walmart’s order pickup and delivery platforms, as well as off-site display.

Kroger - digital media and

messaging buy on Kroger’s digital platforms with nationwide reach in all Kroger divisions/banners including King Soopers, Dillon’s, etc. The campaign included Beef. It’s What’s for Dinner. creative in targeted onsite display ads and video placement across the Kroger digital ecosystem.

Target - digital media and messaging buy that included onsite display on Target.com and the Target app, search placements to reach intent-based audiences, off-site display and Pinterest social media placements.

Beef is Front and Center During Climate Week NYC The annual Climate Week NYC event, hosted by The Climate Group in partnership with the United Nations, the City of New York and the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, often leads to increased media coverage questioning the sustainability of the cattle industry, but it also provides an opportunity to proactively share beef’s sustainability story and positive information about its role in healthy sustainable diets.

NCBA, a contractor to the Beef Checkoff, decided it was time to share the beef industry’s perspective as part of the official Climate Week schedule during this year’s event. The virtual session entitled “Can beef be sustainable? Cattle’s role in the climate solution,” was moderated by nutritionist Nicole Rodriguez, RD, NASM-CPT, and featured a panel of speakers including Jessica Gilreath, Ph.D., postdoctoral research associate at Texas A&M University; Jen Johnson Livsey, cattle producer at Flying Diamond Ranch in Kit Carson, Colo.; and Lamar Moore, celebrity chef and winner of Food Network’s Vegas Chef Prizefight.

During the session on Sept. 23, more than 300 attendees learned from this panel of diverse perspectives about how the beef community is investing in sustainability and preserving resources for generations to come. Attendees also discovered ways that beef cattle can be a critical part of the climate solution through managed grazing, carbon sequestration, mitigating wildfires, preserving wildlife habitats and more. Through this group of experts, the Beef Checkoff shared the ecosystem services that beef provides as part of a sustainable food supply.

The media’s portrayal of beef as part of the environmental problem has led to confusion among consumers

on the industry’s effect on climate change. When asked about cattle’s true environmental impact, Gilreath stressed that cattle are not major emitters of greenhouse gases.

“According to the Environmental Protection Agency, greenhouse gas from beef cattle only represents 2 percent of emissions in the U.S,” she said. “Cattle are part of the natural carbon cycle and the methane they do emit is broken down in the atmosphere in nine to 12 years.”

Livsey shared her story as a fifth-generation cattle producer on Colorado’s Eastern Plains where arid conditions prove best suited for grazing cattle instead of growing crops.

“Cattle interacting with grasses on the landscape are needed to maintain a healthy watershed, provide wildlife habitat and create an overall healthy ecosystem,” she said during the webinar. “And we are not alone in our sustainability efforts, as thousands of cattle producers across the country are constantly making improvements to practices based on their specific ecosystems.”

The role beef plays as part of a healthy diet also took center stage during the discussion. Rodriguez emphasized the versatility of more than 40 cuts of lean beef, packed with protein and other nutrients.

“Cattle take plants inedible to humans and create a delicious and nutritious food,” she said. “Beef also serves as a good vehicle for the conscious consumption of more fruits and vegetables.” Meanwhile, Moore highlighted the ways chefs build menus around beef as a sustainable food.

Can cattle be part of the climate solution? According to Gilreath, the answer is a resounding yes.

“Cattle ranches benefit society

by helping with water regulation and purification, carbon sequestration and wildfire suppression, especially in the West,” she said.

Everyone from pasture to plate has a part to play in sharing beef’s sustainability story.

“As a chef, I have the opportunity to teach people about how cattle are raised and to explain how eating beef is healthy for both people and the environment,” Moore said. “It really comes down to education, learning where beef is coming from and getting to know the families producing the product.”

Livsey agreed, concluding, “We need to emphasize to consumers that the families producing beef are doing their very best for their animals and their land. We work every day to make

improvements, and we are proud of the product that ends up on dinner tables across the country, including mine.”

In addition to the webinar, leading up to Climate Week, NCBA leveraged a variety of tactics to share the information about beef sustainability and nutrition, including submitting letters to the editor and op-eds across the country; developing shareable infographics and videos; hosting a radio media tour with a celebrity chef; partnering with TimeOut New York to feature sustainability in New York ranches; and even showcasing beef sustainability on a billboard in Times Square. For more information about sustainability efforts, visit https://www. beefitswhatsfordinner.com/newsroom/ sustainability.

TRENDING IN FOOD & MEDIA SUSTAINABILITY & DROUGHT Outlets like The New York Times and Yahoo! News covered drought impacts on cattle production in the West, leading to nearly 40,000 mentions.1 The U.N.’s climate change report that implicated methane emissions shifted the focus from cattle to fossil fuels.1

GOOD NEWS FOR BEEF The sustainability media campaign by NCBA, a Beef Checkoff contractor, reached 4 million people.1

PLANT-BASED DIETS & ALTERNATIVES Plant and even insect protein alternatives continue to drive headlines, featured in outlets like Insider and Food Dive.1 Media outlets like Reuters and CNBC focused on meat alternative products featured at Pizza Hut and Chipotle.1

GOOD NEWS FOR BEEF Outlets like Forbes discussed underperforming plant-based meat alternative stocks.1

BEEF NUTRITION & HEALTH OUTCOMES A new study that found plant-based diets reduced risk of heart disease was covered in Yahoo! Entertainment, The Washington Post and WebMD.1 A health index found that certain foods like beef could reduce a person’s lifespan, which was covered by Fox News, Newsweek and USA Today.1

GOOD NEWS FOR BEEF Yahoo! News, Good Morning America, Insider and more featured beef recipes and cooking tips.1

#090321-12 1. National Cattlemen’s Beef Association. (2021). Traditional and social media listening dashboards. Retrieved from Meltwater: www.meltwater.com

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