विपद पश्चातको आंकलन : नाकाबन्दी २०७२ - बृहदअर्थशास्त्रीय समीक्षा

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Volume 7 - June 2016

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kl5Nnf] Ps aif{eGbf a9L ;dob]lv g]kfnsf] cy{tGqnfO{ Pskl5 csf]{ w]/} r'gf}ltx?n] GofFss ] f 5g\, h;n] ubf{ cy{tGq sl7g cj:yfaf6 u'lh|/x]sf] 5 . e'sDkn] em08} ( xhf/ dflg;sf] Hofg lnof] eg] @@ xhf/eGbf w]/} 3fO{t] eP, h;n] cg'dflgt & ca{ cd]l/sL 8n/ a/fa/sf] cfly{s gf]S;fg eof] eg] & nfv dflg;x? ul/aLsf] /]vfd'gL ws]lng] cg'dfg ul/Psf] 5 . To;}u/L, e'sDksf] s]xL dlxgfkl5 t/fO{ dw]z If]qdf ePsf ;+ljwfg;Fu ;DalGwt cfGbf]ngx?sf] sf/0f gfsfaGbLsf] cj:yf ;[hgf eof], h;n] g]kfnsf] cy{tGq / ;du|df l;+uf] ;dfhdfg} 7'nf] wSsf lbof] .

ut jif{sf] ljgfzsf/L e'sDkn] em08} ( xhf/ dflg;x?sf]] Hofg lnof] eg] @@ xhf/ dflg;x? 3fOt] eP . o:t} ?= &)^ ca{ -& ca{ cd]l/sL 8n/_ a/fa/sf] Iflt / ljWj+z eof] h;n] cg'dflgt & nfv dflg;nfO{ ul/aLsf] /]vfd'lg ws]Nof] . e'sDk nuQ}sf] gfsfaGbLn] /fli6«o cy{tGqdf yk ulx/f] wSsfx? lbof] .

gfsfaGbLsf] tfTsflng k|efj :ki6 lyof] / ldl8ofx?df klg rf}tkmL{ ?kdf l/kf]l6{u+ eof] . gfsfaGbLn] kfg]{ bL3{sflng k|efj w]/} g} h6Ln / k|lts'n x'g;S5 .

To;sf/0f of] cWoogn] cy{tGqsf dxTjk'0f{ If]qx?df kf/]sf] k|efjsf] ulx/fO{ / km}nfj6 a'em\g] pb]Zo /fv]sf] 5 . glthfx?sf] cfwf/df of] cWoogn] eljiodf cy{tGqdf kg{ ;Sg] o:t} vfnsf wSsfx?sf] ;fdgf ug{ pko'Qm x'g] pkfox? ;d]t ;'emfPsf] 5 .

dxFuLM hgtfsf] k|d'v zq'

gfsfaGbL v'n]kl5sf dlxgfx?df d'No a[l4 lj:tf/} ;xh x'Fb} uof] . @)&@ df3 cGTo;Dddf pkef]Qmf d'No ;'rsf+ssf] dfkgn] d'b|fl:kmtL !!=# k|ltztdf /x\of] h'g kmfNu'g cGTodf !)=@ k|ltzt / r}q clGtd;Dddf (=& k|ltztdf /x\of] .

cfly{s gfsfaGbLsf] ;a}eGbf dxTjk"0f{{ k|efj d'Nodf ePsf] tLj|| a[l4 lyof] . @)&@ ;fnsf]] ef› b]lv df3 dlxgfsf] aLrdf pkef]Qmf d'No ;"rsf+sn] dfkg u/] cg';f/ d'b|fl:kmlt &=@ k|ltztaf6 a9]/ !@=! k|ltztdf plSnof] h'g lrq ! df b]vfO{Psf] 5 .

cfufdL dlxgfx?df cfk"lt{ ;xh x'Fb} hfFbf d'No a[l4 g]kfn /fi6« a}+sn] t/ntfnfO{ s;/L Joj:yfkg u5{ eGg]df lge{/ ub{5 . cfufdL dlxgfx?df d'No a[l4nfO{ sd ug{ pko'Qm df}lb|s Joj:yfkg;Fu} cfk'lt{sf] ;xhLs/0f dxTjk"0f{ /xg]5g\.

cfk"lt{ ;d:ofsf] sf/0f ;[lht cTofjZos j:t'x?sf] cefjsf] sf/0fn] d'No tLj||tfsf

cefjsf sf/0f b}lgs pkef]Uo j:tx?sf]] d'Nodf tLj|| a[l4 x'Fbf cefjsf] sf/0f

lrq !M cfly{s aif{ @)&@–&# sf] klxnf] gf} dlxgfsf] pkef]Qmf d'No ;"rsf+sdf cfwfl/t aflif{s d'b|f:kmLlt pkef]Qmf d'Nodf d'b|f:kmLlt -Ü_

Jofkf/ gfsfaGbL hf/L /x];uF } xfd|f] e"kl/j]li7t b]zdf cTofjZos cfk"lt{x? em08} 7Kk} eP . gfsfaGbLsf]] glthf:j?k lglDtPsf] OGwg ;+s6n] cy{tGqsf ;a} If]qx?df cfˆgf] k|fefj kfof]{ . Psftkm{ cTofjZos cfoftx? h:t} cf}ifwL tyf OGwg b]zleq k|jz ] ug{ lbOPg eg] csf]t{ km{ OGwgsf] eofjx ;+s6n] cy{tGqsf] pTkfbg, ljt/0f tyf pkef]u k|so[ fnfO{ gsf/fTds c;/ k'of{of] .

;fy a9\of] . k]6«f]lnod kbfy{sf] cefj / sfnf]ahf/df ;f]sf] cToflws b/efp x'Fbf cGo j:t'x?sf] d'No a9\of] h;sf] ef/ cGtt: pRr d'Nosf] ?kdf pkef]Qmfd} k/]sf] lyof] .

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pTkGg c;xhtfsf / To;sf] ;do tyf cj;/ d'No -ckRo'{lg6L s:6_ ;Fu} ;fdfGo hgtfsf] lhjLsfdf k|ToIf ef/ kof{] . gfsfaGbLsf] k|efjsf] af/] k|Zg ;f]Wbf, b]zsf ljleGg efusf dflg;x?af6 cWoog ;d'xn] k|fKt u/]sf] Pp6f ;a}eGbf klxnf] / ;femf k|ltlqmof eg]sf] d'Nodf ePsf] cTolws a[l4 g} lyof] . s]xL pQ/bftfx?n] pgLx?sf] ljrf/df d'No %) k|ltzt ;Ddn] a9]sf] hgfP . @)&@ ef› clGtd b]lv vfBfGg tyf k]o kbfy{sf] d'No a[l4 tLj|| /x]sf] 5 . g]kfndf vfBfGg tyf k]o kbfy{n] pkef]u af:s]6sf] k"0f{ ef/sf] 7'nf] lx:;f cyf{t $#=(! k|ltzt cf]u6]sf] 5 . o;}sf/0f o;df x'g] d'No a[l4n] lhljsfdf k|ToIf k|efj kg{ hfG5 .

Jofkf/df lu/fj6 g]kfn—ef/tsf] ;Ldfdf ePsf] gfsfaGbLsf] sf/0f g]kfnsf] cGt/fli6«o Jofkf/df tLj||

lu/fj6 cfof] . of] cjlwdf j:t'x?sf] cfoft tyf lgof{t b'j} pNn]Vo ?kdf 36\of] . g]kfnsf] cGt/fli6«o Jofkf/sf] ^) k|ltzteGbf a9L Aofkf/ ef/t;Fu x'g] x'Fbf g]kfn—ef/t ;Ldfdf ePsf] cj/f]wsf sf/0f j:t'x?sf] k|jfxdf ulx/f] ;d:of ;[hgf ePsf] lyof] h;sf sf/0f cTofjZos j:t'x?sf] rsf]{ cefj pTkGg eof] . cfly{s aif{sf] klxnf] dlxgfkl5 cfoftdf tLj| lu/fj6 z'? eof] . @)&@ sflt{s clGtd ;Dddf lrq @ df b]vfO{Ph:t} cl3Nnf] aif{sf] t'ngfdf j:t'x?sf] cfoft #^=& k|ltztn] 36\of] . g]kfndf k]6«f]lnod kbfy{sf] cfoftsf] vr{ dfq b]zsf] s'n lgof{teGbf a9L /x]sf] ;Gbe{df OGwgsf] cfoftdf cfPsf] tLj| lu/fj6n] s'n cfoftsf] pNn]Vo lx:;f cf]u6\5 . sfuf]{x?nfO{ jL/u+h afx]s cGoq ;Ldfx?df l/?6 ul/P;Fu} cfoftdf ;'wf/ b]lvg yfNof] . df3df gfsfaGbLsf] ;dflKtkZrft

cfoftdf l56f] ;'wf/ eof] . @)&@ r}q clGtddf j:t'x?sf] cfoft cl3Nnf] aif{sf] ;f]xL cjlwsf] t'ngfdf (=( k|ltztn] sd lyof] o;n] tLa|| lu/fj6sf] cj:yfaf6 cfoft lj:tf/} ;fdfGo cj:yfdf kms]{sf] b]vfpF5 . cfoft;Fu} gfsfaGbLsf] ;dodf lgoft{df klg c;/ k'Uof] . rfn' cfly{s aif{sf] >fj0f cGTo ;Dddf lgof{tsf] cj:yf cl3Nnf] aif{sf] t'ngfdf /fd|f] ePtfklg bf];|f] dlxgfb]lv o;sf] cj:yf lgs} vl:sof] . lrq # df b]vfO{Ph:t} cl3Nnf] aif{x?sf] t'ngfdf sflt{s clGtd / df3 clGtd lgof{tdf @(=! k|ltzt;Ddn] lu/fj6 cfof] . cfofth:tf] l56f] lgof{t ;fdfGo cj:yfdf kms{g ;s]g . gfsfaGbL x6]sf] @ dlxgfeGbf a9L ;dokZrft r}q clGtd ;d]t lgof{t cl3Nnf] aif{sf] t'ngfdf @#=$ k|ltztn] sd lyof] . obL cfoftem}+ lgof{tdf l56\6} ;'wf/ x'g g;s] b]zn] tLj|| ultdf Jofkf/ 3f6fsf] cj:yf Joxf]g'{kg]{ x'G5 .

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;fj{hlgs vr{ / /fhZj ;+sngdf lu/fj6 e' s Dkaf6 ePsf Ifltx?sf] k'glg{d f0fsf] dxTjsf+ I fL of] hgfx? sfof{G jogsf] ;Gbe{ d f cfly{ s aif{ @)&@–&# sf] lj:tf/sf/L ah] 6 nfO{ ;/sf/L vr{ vf;u/L k" F h Lut vr{d f tLj|| j[l 4 ug] { ?kdf x] l /Psf] lyof] . cfly{s aif{ @)&@–&# nfO{ :jLs[ l t k|s[o f / k|o f]u gePsf sf] i fx?sf] k'g{l algof]h gnfO{ ;/nLs/0f ug] { k| f jwfgx? ;lxt ah]6 sfof{ G jog aif{ s f] ?kdf 3f]i f0ff ul/Psf] lyof] . gfsfaGbLsf] z'?jft;Fu} Jofkf/df cj/f]wn] ubf{ k"FhLut vr{nfO{ tLj||tf lbg] / /fhZj ;+sngdf ;'wf/ ug]{ k|oTgx?n] ;d:of ef]u] . gfsfaGbLn] ubf{ ;[lht OGwg / lgdf{0f ;fdu|Lsf] cefjsf sf/0f k"jf{wf/ / cGo ljsf;sf sfo{x? 7Kk eP .

cfly{s aif{sf] ^ dlxgfdf ? *!(=$& ca{sf] nlIft vr{ dWo] hDdf !(=$% k|ltzt dfq vr{ ePsf] / ? $&%=)! ca{ /fhZj nIosf] hDdf #$=%( k|ltzt dfq xfl;n ePsf] tYof+sn] b]vfof] . ;f]xL ;dodf nIosf] ^=% k|ltzt dfq vr{ ;lxt k"FhLut vr{sf] cj:yf clt sdhf]/ b]lvof] eg], rfn' vr{ nIosf] @^ k|ltzt k'u]sf] lyof] .2 gfsfaGbLsf sf/0f OGwg, lgdf{0f ;fdu|L, d]lzg/L / cGo pks/0fx?sf] cefj ;Fu;Fu} k"FhLut vr{ cToGt Go"g x'g'sf] csf]{ sf/0f k'glg{df0f ljw]os kf; x'g ePsf] 9LnfO{ klg xf] h;n] e'sDkkZrftsf] k'glg{df0f k|s[ofsf] cf}krfl/s z'?jftdf 9Lnf] eof] . /fli6«o k'glg{df0f k|flws/0fnfO{ cy{ dGqfnon] vr{ ug{ :jLs[t u/]sf] ah]6 dWo] @)&# a}zfv clGtd;Dddf !) k|ltzteGbf sd

dfq vr{ ug{ ;dy{ /x\of] .3 ;/sf/L vr{sf] ;':ttfn] ubf{ 7'nf k"jf{wf/ sf cfof]hgfx? / e'sDkkZrftsf] k'glg{df0f k|s[ofdf 9LnfO{ ePsf] 5 . o;n] ubf{ w]/} ;+Vofdf /f]hfuf/Lsf] cj;/ ;[hgf x'g] cfzf ul/Psf] ePtfklg cfzfltt cfsf/df /f]huf/L ;[hgf x'g ;s]sf] 5}g . o:t} cfly{s ultljwLx?df tLj|tf cfpg] cg'dfg cfzfdf dfq l;ldt ePsf] 5 .

7'nf k"jf{wf/ cfof]hgfx? ;DkGg ug{ x'g] 9LnfO{n] pkof]lutfdf]n ;[hgfdf l9nfO{sf ;Fu;Fu} vr{ a[l4 ;d]t x'G5 . pbfx/0fsf] nflu /fhdfu{x?sf] lgdf{0fdf x'g] 9LnfO{n] pkof]uLtf df]n u'Dg] / hnljB't cfof]hgfx?sf] lgdf{0fsf] 9LnfO{n] cfof]hgf ;DkGg x'g nfUg] yk ;do cjlwdf pQm ;dosf] cfDbfgL u'D5 .

lj:t[t k|ltj]bgsf] nflu tnsf ln+sx¿df hfg'xf];\ . www.nepaleconomicforum.org www.asd.org.np

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Nepal Economic Forum Nepal Economic Forum (NEF), is a not for profit organization aiming to be Nepal’s premier private sector led economic policy and research institution. NEF strives to re-define the economic development discourse in Nepal, and works towards strengthening the Nepali economy through various activities that promote the growth of an efficient and inclusive private sector. NEF engages in research, analysis and information dissemination to shape national agendas through partnerships.

NEF has successfully hosted multiple events for its own organization as well as external institutions. It has also worked in collaboration with multiple development partners and institutions such as Chatham House, WWF, DANIDA, The Asia Foundation, etc. NEF is currently a recipient of the Think Tank Fund by Open Society Foundations.

NEF is committed to the areas of Climate Change, Renewable Energy and Alternative Development Paradigms as showcased by its work in these areas.

Alliance for Social Dialogue Alliance for Social Dialogue was set up with an aim to promote dialogue within Nepal on a variety of issues, including but not limited to the promotion of democratic values and institutions in Nepal. ASD has been engaging with Nepali stakeholders in an effort to exercise intellectual leadership in important areas that promote an open society, such as education, human rights, and independent media.

ASD seeks to develop strategic partnerships and networks to facilitate discussion and dialogue of policy issues in contemporary Nepali society. It works towards enhancing the role of democratic civil society actors in consolidating the democratic process in an effort to foster an open society in this period of political transition.

“Current Macroeconomic Situation of Nepal (Based on First Months’ Data of 2015/16) ”, Nepal Rastra Bank, http://nrb.org.np/ofg/current_macroeconomic/CMEs_ First%20Month2072.73%20English.pdf 2 “Current Macroeconomic Situation of Nepal (Based on Six Months’ Data of 2015/16)”, Nepal Rastra Bank, http://nrb.org.np/ofg/current_macroeconomic/CMEs_ Six_%20Months_%20English.%20final.pdf 3 “Reconstruction authority uses mere 9.34pc of allocated funds”, The Himalayan Times, May 5, 2016, https://thehimalayantimes.com/business/reconstruction-authority-uses-mere-9-34pc-allocated-funds/ 1

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