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Electric Vehicle Market – India November 2014
Executive Summary Market
Indian electric vehicle market is expected to reach INR a6 mn units in 20------, growing sharply at a CAGR of x%, from INR a1 mn units in 20---- Segment 2 accounts for ~b2% of the electric vehicle market
Drivers & Challenges
Drivers: • Government Initiatives • Rise in Fuel Costs • Low Operating and Maintenance Cost • Foreign Dependence for Crude Oil • Environment Friendly
Government Initiatives
Trends
Challenges: • Low Vehicle Performance • Inefficient Battery • Price Constraint • Power Shortage • Lack of Infrastructure
Alternate Fuels for Surface Transportation Programme (AFSTP) National Electric Mobility Mission Plan 20-• Demand Generation • Research and Development • Manufacturing Incentives • Infrastructure Development Entry of New Players Retro Hybrid Fitment Kit
Major Players
Competition
Company A
Company B
Company C
ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET IN INDIA 2014.PPT
Company D
Company E
2
•Macro Economic Indicators •Introduction •Market Overview • Electric Vehicle • Major Segments
•Market Analysis •Drivers & Challenges •Government Initiatives •Trends •Competitive Landscape •Strategic Recommendations •Appendix ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET IN INDIA 2014.PPT
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Macro Economic Indicators (1/3) GDP at Factor Cost: X
SAMPLE
INR tn a
x1 y1
x2 y2
c
z1
z2
d
k1
k2
b
y4 z4
y3 z3
k4
k3
e Q-
Q20--
Q20--
20--
Q-
20--
Inflation Rate: Y % f
a1
a3
g h
a2
a4
a5
20--
20--
i j k 20--
20--
20--
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Electric vehicles are battery operated vehicles, primarily categorized into four different types
SAMPLE
Electric Vehicle – Introduction • Electric vehicles are propelled by an electric motor (or motors) powered by rechargeable battery packs o Available in various segments across the globe, ranging from bicycles to cars, three wheelers to heavy commercial vehicles
Electric drive train primarily consists:
Component 1
Component 2
Component 3
Component 4
Types of Electric Vehicles – Technology-wise Battery Electric Vehicles
• Description 1
Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicles
• Description 2
BEV
Hybrid Electric Vehicles
• Description 4
• Description 3
PHEV ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET IN INDIA 2014.PPT
Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles
HEV
FCEV 5
Targeted fuel savings and reduction in pollution within 20-will ensure a sustained growth of the electric vehicle market Market Overview – Electric Vehicles • Electric vehicle market in India is at a nascent stage, providing huge untapped market potential for the players to capitalize upon • Market comprises of segment 1, segment 2, segment 3 and other types of vehicles Currently, segment 2 dominates the market accounting for b1% of the overall electric vehicle sales in India
• Greater adoption of electric vehicles will aid in bringing down the level of pollution along with significant fuel savings in the country Government support in four primary categories namely demand generation, research and development, manufacturing incentives and infrastructure development, will create an economically feasible and self sustaining electric vehicle market in the coming years
Market Size & Growth
Market Share – Segment-wise (20-----) Segment 1
mn units a6
a
Segment 2 Segment 3
+x%
b
a5
1% 1% 3%
Others
a4 a3
c a1
a2
95%
d 20-----
20-----e
20-----e
20-----e
20-----e
20----e
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Supply Chain Cost Comparison – Electric Vehicle vs. ICE Vehicle Vehicle Lifecycle Cost Comparison – Supply Chain Wise Research and Development
a
Component Production
a3%
Assembly
Marketing
Sales and Distribution
After Sales Service
a4%
b c d
a9%
e f
a5%
a10%
a6%
g h
a1%
a2% a7%
i
a8%
a11%
a12%
0 Electric Vehicle (High Volume)
ICE vehicle
> Accounts for ~x% of vehicle lifecycle cost for a 4W ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET IN INDIA 2014.PPT
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Segment 1 to witness phenomenal growth with increasing consumer acceptability and government support Market Overview – Segment 1
Market Size & Growth
• Segment 1 has huge potential in India wherein consumers have higher preference for Technology1 Segment 1 electric vehicles Major auto players such as company A, company B and company C are evaluating the electric car market
• Government support for demand creation coupled with improvements in technology and infrastructure will drive this segment
units 120,000
a6
100,000
+x%
80,000
a5
60,000 40,000 20,000
a4 a1
a2
20-----
20----- e
a3
0
20----- e
20----- e
20----- e
20----- e
Consumer Preference – Electric Vehicle Technology-wise Share of Consumers prefer Segment 1 than ICE
Preference for Technology 1 Preference for Technology 2
32%--33%
Others
17%-18% 70%-75%
Preference for Technology 3
25%-30%
50%
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Poor pick up, low top speed and battery replacement issues are restricting the adoption of Technology 3 type Segment 1 electric vehicles
8
Matrix of Key Challenges to Electric Vehicle Adoption – Segment-wise Finding 1
Comparative Factors
4W
2W
3W
LCV
Bus
Ranking
Factor 1
1
Factor 2
2
Factor 3
3
Factor 4
4
Factor 5
5
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Drivers & Challenges – Summary
Challenges Low Vehicle Performance Inefficient Battery
Drivers Government Initiatives Rise in Fuel Costs
Price Constraint Power Shortage
Lack of Infrastructure Low Operating and Maintenance Cost Foreign Dependence for Crude Oil Environment Friendly
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Government initiatives and subsidies to emerge as a major growth… Government Initiatives (1/3)
Impact
• Finding 1 • Finding 2 • Finding 3 • Finding 4 Sub-finding 1 Sub-finding 2
• Finding 5
x% Subsidy on base price y% exemption on VAT Refund of road tax and registration charges
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Alternate Fuels for Surface Transportation Program was adopted to… Alternate Fuels for Surface Transportation Program (AFSTP) (1/3)
Scheme Adoption • AFSTP was announced in Nov 20-- and was run by the Ministry 1 • Government had allocated INR x mn to provide financial incentives during 20----• OEMs were required to register with Organization 1 in order to benefit from this scheme They had to provide a minimum y year warranty period along with setting up z service stations across country 1 Manufacturers sold the electric vehicles at a subsidized rate to the customers and later claimed a refund from the government
Targets and Incentive Layout (FY20-- and FY20--) Electric Vehicle – Segments
Type of Vehicle
Target ( no. of vehicles)
Assistance per vehicle
Cap on Incentives
Type 1
a1
b1
INR c1
Type 2
a2
b2
INR c2
Segment 2
Type 3
a3
b3
Segment 3
Type 4
a4
b4
INR c4 mn
Segment 4
Type 5
-
-
INR c5 mn
Segment 1
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z% ex-factory cost of vehicles
INR c3
12
NEMMP 20-- to support the long term growth and development of the domestic electric vehicle market National Electric Mobility Mission Plan 20-- (NEMMP 20--)
National Electric Mobility Mission Plan 20-- sets the future outlook and objective along with laying down the pathway for accomplishing considerable penetration of electric vehicles (including hybrids) in India by 20--
• NEMMP 20-- has been approved by the Organization 1 on xth Aug 20-- with a target of producing z mn green vehicles by 20--, out of which z1-z2 mn are expected to be type 1 vehicles • Total investment required over the next f years: INR a1-a2 bn • Government plans to provide d% of the resources with an investment of INR b1-b2 bn and the remaining should come from the industry for developing infrastructure and encouraging the use of environment friendly electric vehicles Benefits
Benefits
SAMPLE Results
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NEMMP 20-- – Potential Roadmap for Hybridization/ Electrification Electric Vehicle Penetration
“Analysis 4” “Analysis 3”
Finding 1
3. Point 3 Finding 2
“Analysis 2”
SAMPLE 2. Point 2
1. Point 1 4. Point 4
Year
“Analysis 1” 20--
20--
20-----
ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET IN INDIA 2014.PPT
20-14
Projected Demand in India (20--e) – Electric Vehicle Technology-wise and Segment-wise Electric Vehicle Technology
Technology 1
Technology 2
Technology 3
Electric Vehicle Segments
Segment 1
Segment 2
Segment 3
Total Potential Demand for Electric Vehicles (20--e)
Potential Demand for Electric Vehicles (20--e) (mn units)
a1-a2
a3-a4
a5-a6
a7-a8
• Finding 1 • Finding 2 • Finding 3 • Finding 4
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High Priority R&D Area for Electric Vehicle in India (1/2) Technology Ranking – Prioritywise a1
a2
SAMPLE Battery Cell
BMS
• Finding 1
• Finding 2 Sub-finding 1 a3
Power Electronics (Hybrids)
• Finding 3 Sub-finding 2
Sub-finding 3 a4
Electric Motor
a5
Transmission System (Hybrids)
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Phased manufacturing strategy for electric vehicles in India • Finding 1 • Finding 2 • Finding 3
SAMPLE
Phase 1 Year x
Condition 1
Strategy 1
Initiative 1
Condition 2
Strategy 2
Initiative 2
Condition 2
Strategy 3
Initiative 3
Condition 2
Strategy 4
Initiative 4
Phase 2 Year y
Phase 3 Year z
Phase 4 > Year q
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Charging Infrastructure Associated Key Findings – Electric Vehicle Segment-wise (2/4) Two Wheelers
Share of consumers considering technology 1 scooters to be worse than ICE (based on range)
54%
46%
Share of consumers considering technology 2 bikes to be worse than ICE (based on range)
54%
46%
Share of consumers considering the following parameters to be a key barrier for adoption %
50 40 30 20
a1
a2
Segment 1 a3
Segment 2 a4 a5
a6
10 0 Range
Charging Time
Charging Infrastructure
Sensitivity • Sensitivity 1 • Inference 1
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Infrastructure needed to support the power requirement of electric four wheelers by 20-Four Wheelers
Scenario II – HG/HEV
Scenario III – HG/HEV/BEV
Assumption 1 leading to Finding 1
Assumption 2 leading to Finding 2
Extra Power Generation Required 20--
SAMPLE
Extra Power Generation Required 20--
a1 MW
(with x% peak charging)
(with x% peak charging)
Charging Infrastructure Investment 20--
Charging Infrastructure Investment 20--
INR b1 bn
Share of Total no. of Charging Terminals (20--) Type 1
Type 2
a2 MW INR b2 bn
Share of Total no. of Charging Terminals (20--)
Type 3
Type 1
Type 2
Type 3 in ‘000
in ‘000 20--
t1
t2
t3
t
20--
c1
c2
ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET IN INDIA 2014.PPT
c4
c
19
Total Proposed Investment under NEMMP 20-- – Electric Vehicle Segment-wise (1/4) Total Proposed Investment (INR bn): Scenario II – HG/HEV (Lower Limit) Segment 1
Segment 2
Segment 3
Segment 5
Segment 6
t6
t2 t1
60.6% 52% t4
68% 5%
t5 t3
7% 10%
33%
89%
45.5%
80%
10% 6%
10%
4W
2W
8% 8% 4% 3W
4%
5% 2%
LCV
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45.5% 0.5% 0.5% 8.2% Bus
7.4% 20.3% 4.0% 7.6% Total
20
Trends – Summary
Entry of New Players
Key Trends
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Retro Fitment Hybrid Kits
21
Competitive Benchmarking (1/5) Public Trading Comparables (FY 20--) Company A
Company B
Company C
Market Capitalization (INR mn)
-
-
-
Share Price (INR)
-
-
-
EV/EBITDA (x)
SAMPLE -
-
-
EV/Revenue (x)
-
-
-
PE Ratio
-
-
-
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Public: Domestic Company – Company A (1/4) Company Information Corporate Address
Offices and Centres – India
Company Address
Tel No.
+91-xx- yyyyyyyyy
Fax No.
+91-ww-zzzzzzzz
Website
www.companyA.com
Year of Incorporation
19--
Ticker Symbol
------
Stock Exchange
Exchange Name
Products and Services Category
Head Office Products/Services
Key People Segment
Others
Product 1, product 2, product 3,………………….
Product 1, product 2, product 3………
Name
Designation
Person 1
Designation
Person 2
Designation
Person 3
Designation
Person 4
Designation
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Public: Domestic Company – Company A (2/4) Financial Snapshot Total Income INR mn
Key Ratios Profit INR mn
Total Income Profit / Loss
a
y4
y3
y1
f
y2
b x1
x2
d
x4
x3
c
g h
20--
20--
20--
20--
Financial Summary
• The company reported total Income of INR y4 mn in FY 20-registering an increase of x% over FY 20-• The company earned an operating margin of p% in FY 20--, a decrease of y percentage points over FY 20-• The company reported debt to equity ratio of q in FY 20--, an increase of r% over FY 20--
Financial Summary Indicators
Value
Market Capitalization (INR)
z1
EPS (INR) PE Ratio (Absolute)
y-o-y change (20-----)
20--
20--
20--
20--
-3.31
7.37%
10.69%
11.63%
14.80%
-6.73
4.02%
10.75%
12.08%
7.61%
-5.22
6.52%
11.74%
15.66%
11.00%
-7.25
5.51%
12.76%
13.22%
9.02%
-2.22
8.50%
10.73%
12.11%
16.70%
-7.92
20.82%
28.74%
28.25%
56.05%
-1.89
6.67%
8.56%
10.77%
14.08%
-4.90
26.02%
30.92%
33.44%
41.15%
3.47
92.50%
89.03%
87.70%
84.70%
5.78
33.11%
27.33%
22.91%
25.64%
-0.24
0.82%
1.06%
1.21%
1.74%
Profitability Ratios Operating Margin Net Margin Profit Before Tax Margin Return on Equity Return on Capital Employed Return on Working Capital Return on Assets Return on Fixed Assets
Cost Ratios
• The company earned a net profit of INR x4 mn in FY 20--, as compared to net profit of INR x3 mn in FY 20--
Total Enterprise Value (INR)
Particulars
z2 z3 z4
Operating costs (% of Sales) Administration costs (% of Sales) Interest costs (% of Sales)
Liquidity Ratios Current Ratio Cash Ratio
0.43%
2.49
2.48
4.42
2.60
-14.77%
0.53
0.63
1.76
1.09
7.22%
0.32
0.30
0.01
0.02
5.46%
0.24
0.23
0.01
0.02
-12.08%
9.10
10.35
10.14
8.78
23.09%
3.47
2.82
2.72
2.69
14.00%
0.89
0.78
0.88
0.92
6.29%
1.66
1.56
1.78
2.26
5.98%
2.78
2.62
2.30
3.66
14.65%
1.02
0.89
1.02
1.13
Leverage Ratios Debt to Equity Ratio Debt to Capital Ratio Interest Coverage Ratio
Efficiency Ratios Fixed Asset Turnover Asset Turnover Current Asset Turnover Working Capital Turnover Capital Employed Turnover
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Public: Domestic Company – Company A (3/4) Key Business Segments
100% 80%
Segment 1
Segment 3
Segment 2
Segment 4
21%
11%
76%
88%
3%
0% 1%
20--
20--
60% 40% 20% 0%
Key Geographic Segments
Business Highlights (1/2)
11%
85%
Country 1
19% 65%
2%
100% 80% 60%
87%
97%
97%
95%
13%
3%
3%
5%
20--
20--
20--
20--
40% 20%
SAMPLE 4% 1% 20--
13%
20--
Country 2
0%
Description
News
Overview
• Company A is a multi-divisional ISO xxxx:yyyy certified company with a market share of x kW in the metal melting industry globally Holds more than x% market share in induction melting equipments used by the engineering and automotive
Electric Vehicle Division
• Company has developed and introduced electric bikes and scooters under the brand name brand 1 with an annual installed capacity of c1 mn units
industry in country 1 Has worldwide presence with specific focus on the country 1, country 2, country 3, country 4 and country 5 while catering to z1 countries around the world
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Public: Domestic Company – Company A – SWOT Analysis (4/4)
S
W
O
T
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Strategic Recommendations (1/2) Manufacturers • Recommendation 1 • Recommendation 2 • Recommendation 3 • Recommendation 4
Marketing • Recommendation 5 • Recommendation 6 • Recommendation 7 • Recommendation 8
Target Consumers
• Recommendation 9 • Recommendation 10
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