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Solar Photovoltaic Market – India November 2014
Executive Summary
Market
Solar PV market in India is expected to grow at a CAGR of ~x% between 2014 and 2018 to reach ~xx GW Although overall project costs are rising, the market has continued to grow steadily Gujarat and Rajasthan together account for ~y% of the total solar PV installations in India
Challenges
Drivers
Drivers and Challenges
Government Initiatives
Competitive Landscape
– – – – – –
Feasible Geographical Location Declining Capital Costs for Solar PV Dropping Solar Power Rates Depleting Coal Reserves India Remains Energy Deficient Increasing Cost of Electricity from Conventional Sources – Time of Commissioning
– Capital Intensive Nature – Competition from Chinese Firms – Lack of Awareness
Major Government Bodies Research and Development Initiatives Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission (JNNSM)
Subsidies and Incentives Rural Electrification Programme
Major Players Company A
Company B
Company C
Company D
Company E
Company F
SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC MARKET IN INDIA 2014.PPT
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•Macro-Economic Indicators •Introduction •Market Overview •Supply Chain Analysis •Drivers and Challenges •Government Initiatives •Trends •Recent Developments •Competitive Landscape •Strategic Recommendations •Appendix SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC MARKET IN INDIA 2014.PPT
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Economic Indicators (1/3)
SAMPLE
GDP at Factor Cost: Quarterly INR tn D
B
x1 a1 b1
A
c1
C
x4 a4 b4
x3 a3 b3
x2 a2 b2 c2
11 Q1
Q2 2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
Q3 2013-14
Q4
Inflation Rate: Monthly % B A
a1
a3
a4
a2
0
A B
a4 Jul 2013 - Aug 2013
Aug 2013 - Sep 2013
Sep 2013 - Oct 2013
Oct 2013 - Nov 2013
SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC MARKET IN INDIA 2014.PPT
Nov 2013 - Dec 2013
4
Renewable energy is gaining prominence in India’s power sector
SAMPLE
Renewable Energy Scenario
Energy Market Segmentation
• Principal sources of renewable energy are:
Wind Energy Small Hydro up to 25 MW Biogas Solar Energy
Thermal
A3
Nuclear Hydro
A2
Renewable A1 A4
⁻ Solar Thermal ⁻ Solar Photovoltaic (PV)
• Renewable energy capacity reached x GW presently, accounting for a% of the total installed power capacity in India • India plans to double its renewable energy capacity to xx MW by 2017 • Government plans to add xx GW of renewable power generation over the next five years, more than twice the xx GW added during the 11th Five Year Plan • The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) plans to increase the total renewable energy capacity to more than xx GW during 2012-17
Total installed capacity of power is ~A GW
Renewable Energy Market Segmentation Wind
A3
Bio-Power
A2
Solar Small Hydro Power
A1 A4
Total installed capacity of renewable energy is A GW Note: Figures are in terms of Installed Capacity, as on 31st Jul 2014 SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC MARKET IN INDIA 2014.PPT
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PV systems are generally classified according to their functional and operational requirements
SAMPLE
Types of PV Systems Grid Connected
XX
Off-grid
XX
Hybrid System
XX
PV Cells – Overview Module Efficiency
Surface Area Requirement (per KWp)
Monocrystalline silicon
XX
XX
Polycrystalline silicon
XX
XX
Thin film (CI/GS/Se)
XX
XX
Thin-film (CdTe)
XX
XX
Amorphous silicon (a-Si)
XX
XX
Cell Material
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Solar Photovoltaic Market will have a significant rate of growth in the near future
SAMPLE
Solar Photovoltaic Market – Overview (1/x) • XX • XX • XX • XX • XX • XX • XX • XX
Cumulative PV Installed Capacity – Growth MW D C
a9
B A 0
a10
XX
a1
a2
a3
a4
a5
a6
FY 2009
FY 2010
FY 2011
FY 2012
FY 2013
FY 2014
a7
FY 2015e
SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC MARKET IN INDIA 2014.PPT
a8
FY 2016e
FY 2017e
FY 2018e
7
Photovoltaic market in India is largely import dependent with current low domestic manufacturing capacity Solar Photovoltaic Market – Overview (2/x) Quarterly Capacity Additions
SAMPLE
Policy – Wise Capacity Contribution (2013)
MW
D
C a2
B A
State Policy
C
a4
MNRE Initiatives
AB
E
a3
a1
0
Q1 2013 (Apr-Jun)
Q2 2013 (Jul-Sep)
Q3 2013 (Oct-Dec)
Modules Used – Segmentation
y x
RPO
Indian Solar PV Manufacturing Capacity (MW) A
Crystalline
Thin Film
Private Initiative REC
F
Q4 2013 (Jan-Mar)
CPSUs
B
Polysilicon
A
Ingot
B
Wafers
C
Cells
C
E MW
D
Modules 2012
D
E 2012
SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC MARKET IN INDIA 2014.PPT
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Abundant sunshine combined with declining prices of modules is boosting the solar PV market
SAMPLE
Feasible Geographical Location
Impact
• XX • XX • XX
Declining Capital Costs for Solar PV • Cost of setting up PV projects in India has been steadily declining as a result of drop in PV prices globally • This has made PV projects more viable and is leading to greater demand for PV generators
Impact
Benchmark Capital Costs for Solar PV INR mn/MWp 200
a1
a2
a3
100
a4
a5
a6
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15e
0 2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC MARKET IN INDIA 2014.PPT
Note: sq mt refers to square metres
9
Rising cost of electricity along with time of commissioning is boosting the solar PV market
SAMPLE
Increasing Cost of Electricity from Conventional Sources
Impact
• Price of electricity has been rising due to increase in the price of coal • According to Coal India, average increase in the price of Grade E coal will be xx% while that of Grade F coal will be x% • As a result we see the price of electricity has been increasing over the years • The tariff rates have been rising at a CAGR of a% since 2010 • Increase in the price of conventionally generated electricity has further propelled the need for electricity generated through renewable sources
Time of Commissioning
Impact
• Solar photovoltaic power projects take the least time of commissioning • Other renewable energy sources involve much longer time to get design objectives and specifications of the project verified
Years of Commissioning Solar PV Wind Gas Coal Hydro
a1 a2 a3 a4 a5 0.0
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
Years I
J
K
L
M
SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC MARKET IN INDIA 2014.PPT
N
O
P 10
Subsidy structure of solar cells are hurting domestic solar industry
SAMPLE
Competition from Chinese Firms
Impact
• China is one the biggest economies when it comes to solar PV along with Italy and Germany • China has a global market share of approximately x% in PV cells and xx% in the PV modules industry • China exports about x% of its solar manufactures at very cheap prices • Dumping activities by Chinese firms are bleeding the domestic solar manufacturing industry • Indian firms are producing at only x-y% of their total capacity due to the excess supply
Import of PV cells from China
INR mn D
A
C
a6 a4 a5
B A 0
a1
a2
a3
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
HS Code: 85414011 Solar Cells/Photovoltaic Cells Whether Or Not Assembled In Module/Panel SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC MARKET IN INDIA 2014.PPT
2014 Note: Figures are for the respective fiscal years
11
Key Government bodies working towards the development of solar PV energy and other renewable energy resources
SAMPLE
Major Government Bodies
• XX
XX
XX
XX
• XX
SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC MARKET IN INDIA 2014.PPT
• XX
12
Government initiated the Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission to…
SAMPLE
Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission (JNNSM)
Overview
• XX
Applications Segmented
Targets
• • • • •
XX XX XX XX XX
Schemes
• XX • XX
Outcome
• XX • XX
2020 Target (MW)
On-grid Ground-mount
X
Off and On-Grid Building-mount
X
Off-grid Rural
X
Off-grid Industrial
X
SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC MARKET IN INDIA 2014.PPT
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…facilitate growth and development of the solar photovoltaic sector
SAMPLE
Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission (JNNSM) Target for Phase I (2010-13)
Cumulative Target for Phase-II (2013-17)
Cumulative Target for Phase-III (2017-22)
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Application Segment
Special Incentive Packages
• XX • XX • XX • XX
SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC MARKET IN INDIA 2014.PPT
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Advent of cost effective solar hybrid generators has widened the consumer base
SAMPLE
Solar Hybrid Generators Solar PV and Wind
Solar PV and Diesel
• XX
• XX
XX
XX
SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC MARKET IN INDIA 2014.PPT
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Policy and Project Outlook State Policies
SAMPLE
• XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC MARKET IN INDIA 2014.PPT
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Policy and Project Outlook Renewable Purchase Obligation
SAMPLE
XX
Analysis of State-Wise RPO Regulation Across India(1/x) States
Favorable
Neutral
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC MARKET IN INDIA 2014.PPT
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Porter’s Five Forces Analysis
SAMPLE
Threat of New Entrants
Impact XX
XX
Impact XX
Bargaining Power of Suppliers XX
Impact XX
Impact XX
Competitive Rivalry
Bargaining Power of Buyers
XX
XX
Impact XX Threat of Substitutes XX
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Competitive Benchmarking (1/x) Public Trading Comparable (FY 2013)
SAMPLE
Company A
Company B
Company C
Company D
Market Capitalization (INR mn)
XX
XX
XX
XX
Share Price (INR)
XX
XX
XX
XX
EV/EBITDA (x)
XX
XX
XX
XX
EV/Revenue (x)
XX
XX
XX
XX
PE Ratio
XX
XX
XX
XX
Note: Market Capitalization is as on 08/09/2014; Share Price is as on 05/09/2014; PE Ratio is as on 08/09/2014 SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC MARKET IN INDIA 2014.PPT
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Competitive Benchmarking (2/x)
SAMPLE
Key Ratios of Top 3 Companies – Operational Basis (FY 2013) (1/3) Operating Margin
%
a1
A
a2
Net Margin
b1
0 B
c1 c2 b2
C Company A
Company B
Company C
• XX • XX • XX
SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC MARKET IN INDIA 2014.PPT
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Public: Domestic Company – Company A (1/4) Company Information Corporate Address
XX
Tel No.
XX
Fax No.
XX
Website
XX
Year of Incorporation
XX
Ticker Symbol
XX
Stock Exchange
XX
SAMPLE
Offices and Centres – India
Kolkata Head Office
Products and Services Category
Products/Services
Solar PV
XX
Key People Name
Designation
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC MARKET IN INDIA 2014.PPT
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Public: Domestic Company – Company A (2/4)
SAMPLE
Financial Snapshot INR mn
Key Ratios
Total Income
Net Profit/Loss
-17.8
INR mn
-212.1
3000
-500
2000 -1,666.9 1000
0
2061.5
1324.7
-1,000
1819.5
0
-1,500 -2,000
2011
2012
2013
Financial Summary • The company incurred a net loss of INR 212.1 mn in FY 2013, as compared to net loss of INR 1,666.9 mn in FY 2012 • The company reported total income of INR 1,819.5 mn in FY 2013, registering a decrease of 37.35% over FY 2012 • The company earned an operating margin of -7.28% in FY 2013, an increase of 89.68 percentage points over FY 2012 • The company reported debt to equity ratio of negative 4.93 in FY 2013
Particulars
y-o-y change (2013-12)
2013
2012
2011
Profitability Ratios Operating Margin Net Margin Profit Before Tax Margin Return on Equity Return on Capital Employed Return on Working Capital Return on Assets Return on Fixed Assets
89.68
-7.28%
-96.95%
4.79%
114.17
-11.66%
-125.83%
-0.87%
114.17
-11.66%
-125.83%
0.78%
N.A.
31.13%
N.A.
-0.98%
N.A.
-6.85%
N.A.
2.21%
N.A.
6.88%
N.A.
169.70%
N.A.
-2.50%
N.A.
1.59%
N.A.
-3.90%
N.A.
2.80%
-89.96
108.69%
198.65%
95.00%
Administration costs (% of Sales)
2.48
6.30%
3.82%
4.52%
Interest costs (% of Sales)
-1.43
16.06%
17.49%
8.35%
N.A.
0.43
N.A.
1.03
N.A.
0.03
N.A.
0.16
N.A.
-4.93
N.A.
1.74
N.A.
1.25
N.A.
0.63
-90.40%
-0.54
-5.64
0.60
N.A.
0.45
N.A.
0.56
N.A.
0.29
N.A.
0.32
N.A.
1.05
N.A.
1.09
N.A.
-0.79
N.A.
33.95
N.A.
0.57
N.A.
0.40
Cost Ratios Operating costs (% of Sales)
Liquidity Ratios Current Ratio Cash Ratio
Leverage Ratios
Key Financial Performance Indicators Indicators
Value (08/09/2014)
Market Capitalization (INR mn) Total Enterprise Value (INR mn) EPS (INR) PE Ratio (Absolute)
390.0 5,465.7 -27.96 N.A.
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt to Capital Ratio Interest Coverage Ratio
Efficiency Ratios Fixed Asset Turnover Asset Turnover Current Asset Turnover Working Capital Turnover Capital Employed Turnover
Improved
SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC MARKET IN INDIA 2014.PPT
Decline
22
Public: Domestic Company – Company A (3/4)
SAMPLE
Key Business Segments
100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
100%
Key Geographic Segments
Solar Photovoltaic Cells and Modules
It operates only in the solar PV cells and modules segment
100% 80% 60%
100%
India India is the only geographic segment in which the company has been operating for the last four years
40% 20% 0% 2012
2013
Business Highlights Description
News
Overview
XX
Manufacturing Capacity
XX SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC MARKET IN INDIA 2014.PPT
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Public: Domestic Company – Company A (4/4)
SAMPLE
• XX
• XX
S
W
O
T
• XX
• XX
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Private: Domestic Company – Company B (1/5)
SAMPLE
Company Information Corporate Address
• XX
Tel No.
• XX
Fax No.
• XX
Website
• XX
Year of Incorporation
• XX
Offices and Centres – India
Products and Services Category
Solar PV Solutions
Bangalore
Products/Services
Head Office
Key People
On-Grid Modules, Off-Grid Modules, Polycrystalline Modules, Monocrystalline Modules and Customized PV System
Name
Designation
• XX
• XX
• XX
• XX
• XX
• XX
• XX
• XX
SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC MARKET IN INDIA 2014.PPT
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Private: Domestic Company – Company B (2/5) Shareholders of the Company as on 30/09/2013 Name
No. of Shares held
• XX
• XX
• XX
• XX
• XX
• XX
• XX
• XX
SAMPLE
Ownership Structure
Directors or relatives of directors
100.0%
Note: Ownership structure corresponds to Date of AGM: 30/09/2013
SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC MARKET IN INDIA 2014.PPT
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Private: Domestic Company – Company B (3/5)
SAMPLE
Financial Snapshot Total Income
Key Ratios Net Profit/Loss
Particulars
INR mn
INR mn
5000
400
307.9
4000
300
3000
168.7
2000
93.6
1000
1614.3
4366.0
3910.8
2861.0
115.6
0
200 100 0
2010
2011
2012
2013
Financial Summary
Operating Margin Net Margin Profit Before Tax Margin Return on Equity Return on Capital Employed Return on Working Capital Return on Assets Return on Fixed Assets
2012
2011
2010
4.97 2.94 5.17 2.91 4.56 39.67 2.38 14.83
9.16% 4.19% 7.19% 9.56% 5.90% 2.96% 7.05% 5.80% 9.68% 4.51% 7.35% 9.97% 19.41% 16.50% 52.65% 32.42% 11.19% 6.63% 14.40% 16.40% 131.95% 92.28% 158.78% 32.97% 7.15% 4.77% 11.65% 14.94% 36.14% 21.31% 40.27% 27.36%
-5.01
90.79%
95.80%
N.A. N.A.
N.A. N.A.
N.A. N.A.
N.A. N.A.
N.A. N.A.
0.90% 602.55%
1.09 0.39
1.08 0.06
1.12 0.08
2.86 0.06
-32.94% -12.22% N.A.
1.70 0.63 N.A.
2.53 0.72 N.A.
2.73 0.73 N.A.
2.26 0.69 N.A.
-22.61% -31.60% -27.53% -34.75% -41.16%
3.92 0.78 1.19 14.33 3.28
5.07 1.14 1.64 21.95 5.57
5.59 1.62 2.44 22.04 7.45
2.85 1.56 2.23 3.43 5.57
Cost Ratios Operating costs (% of Sales) Administration costs (% of Sales) Interest costs (% of Sales)
Liquidity Ratios
• The company reported total income of INR 2861.0 mn in FY 2013, registering a decrease of 27% over FY 2012
Leverage Ratios
• The company reported debt to equity ratio of 1.70 in FY 2013, a decrease of 32.94% over FY 2012
2013
Profitability Ratios
• The company earned a net profit of INR 168.7 mn in FY 2013, as compared to net profit of INR 115.6 mn in FY 2012
• The company earned an operating margin of 9.16% in FY 2013, an increase of 4.97percentage points over FY 2012
y-o-y change (2013-12)
Current Ratio Cash Ratio Debt to Equity Ratio Debt to Capital Ratio Interest Coverage Ratio
92.79% 90.40%
Efficiency Ratios Fixed Asset Turnover Asset Turnover Current Asset Turnover Working Capital Turnover Capital Employed Turnover
Improved
SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC MARKET IN INDIA 2014.PPT
Decline
27
Private: Domestic Company – Company B (4/5)
SAMPLE
Business Highlights Description
News
Overview
• XX
Sales Network
• XX
Certification
• XX
Awards and Accolades
• XX
Recent Developments
• XX
SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC MARKET IN INDIA 2014.PPT
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Private: Domestic Company – Company B (5/5)
SAMPLE
• XX
• XX
S
W
O
T
• XX
• XX
SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC MARKET IN INDIA 2014.PPT
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