Gm skills analysis sep public[1] by New Economy

Greater Manchester Skills Analysis

A report for

Greater Manchester Skills and Employment Partnership

Submitted October 2012

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CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................... 3 1

INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................ 6

SKILLS AND EMPLOYMENT IN CONTEXT ..................................................... 7

EMPLOYER DEMAND ..................................................................................... 21

SKILLS SUPPLY.............................................................................................. 28

IDENTIFYING MARKET FAILURES AND OPPORTUNITIES ......................... 56

NEXT STEPS ................................................................................................... 67

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This document presents labour market analysis and research to inform the identification of common Greater Manchester (GM) labour market priorities and outcomes by the Skills and Employment Partnership. The principal focus of the analysis is the further education sector (i.e. provision funded by the Skills Funding Agency), as part of a wider context that includes the performance of young people pre-19 and the contribution of the conurbation’s five universities.

Current labour market and skills context The Manchester Independent Economic Review identified skills as the key factor in GM’s £7.2 billion productivity gap with the rest of the UK. GM’s skills profile lags the UK average with the result that, in both a UK and European context, GM is operating in a ‘low-skilled equilibrium’, with low employment levels and low per worker productivity. Unemployment has risen sharply since the start of the recession. Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) has more than doubled since 2008, with young people being severely affected – onethird of JSA claimants are aged 16-24. Long-term unemployment has also risen dramatically – the number claiming JSA for 6 months or more is at its highest level since 1997, standing at 39,125, almost half of all claimants. However, unemployment figures are dwarfed by levels of economic inactivity (those not employed but not looking for work for reasons ranging from sickness or study) which has long been a structural problem for the conurbation. Over 150,000 GM residents claim Incapacity Benefit (IB) or its successor, Employment and Support Allowance (ESA), and around 32,000 residents claim Income Support (IS) for Lone Parents. Welfare reform will particularly affect these groups as policy looks to move more of these individuals off benefits and into work. Up to April 2012 (latest data) referrals to the Department for Work and Pensions’ Work Programme have principally been JSA claimants, which have accounted for 89.7% of all referrals. Just 3,500 (8.8%) were of the various ESA groups; 60 (0.2%) were IB/IS volunteers and 260 (0.7%) were prison leavers. GM’s ‘low skill equilibrium’ is also reflected in concentrations of low paid employment. There are over 300,000 families claiming tax credits in GM, of which 230,000 are in work, at a cost of £1.5bn each year. The introduction of Universal Credit, alongside other welfare reforms, is likely to increase the level of conditionality attached to in-work benefit payments to encourage claimants to raise their incomes (either through increasing the number of hours worked or annual salaries).

Employer demand for skills GM’s employment growth, and hence skills demand, has been driven by the large-scale and rapid expansion of the service sector, particularly financial & professional services. Although smaller in size, GM has also developed its creative & digital industries to the stage where they represent the UK’s biggest centre for the industries outside the Greater Southeast. The size, strength and importance of GM’s universities, colleges and providers mean that education is another key service specialism for the conurbation. GM’s history means the conurbation still retains strengths in manufacturing, and advanced

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manufacturing is expected to be of increasing importance. Health and social care is the second largest employer in GM, which is in line with national trends, and has seen strong employment growth over the past decade. These five sectors are forecast to be of continuing importance over the next decade and will be key drivers of demand for skills. GMFM forecasts that the trend towards increased demand for higher level skills looks set to continue over the next decade: forecast indicate that of the 921,000 jobs due to be created over the next decade (due to retirements and labour market mobility, as well as growth) half will require skills equivalent to at least NVQ level 3, and a quarter to NVQ level 4. The financial and professional services sector is expected to continue to dominate, accounting for more than a quarter (28.8%) of all employment opportunities, and more than a third (35.5%) of all employment requiring higher level skills. Employers report significantly more skills deficiencies in their existing workforce than they do from potential new recruits. In 2011, just 2% of employers reported having vacancies that they could not fill because of skills issues, compared to 16% of employers who reported having employees who are not wholly proficient in their roles. Skills shortage vacancies were heavily concentrated in Associate Professional occupations (42%) a problem which appears particularly acute in GM, with the national average only being 20%. GM also appears to have a particular challenge with respect to Managers, Directors and Senior Officials, where 10% of employers with a hard to fill vacancy struggled to recruit for these occupations compared to 5% nationally. In terms of the existing workforce, skills gaps were generally in lower level occupations with 22% amongst Sales and Customer Service staff, 19% among Elementary staff and 13% among Administrative and Clerical staff. When compared with Core City LEP areas, weaknesses are evident in particular with respect to Administrative and Clerical Staff and Associate Professionals.

Employer ‘soft’ skills needs In addition to job specific skills, employers frequently report gaps in new recruits and existing staff’s soft skills. Planning and Organisation skills were also found to be lacking for 60% of employers with skills gaps in their workforce. GM also compared poorly against several additional measures, including: Basic computer literacy / using IT (25%), Literacy skills (25%), Office admin skills (35%) Customer handling skills (54%) and Team working skills (49%) and was either the poorest or second worst performing area against each of the comparator LEP areas. Poor attitude, motivation or personality appears to be a particular problem for candidates in GM, with 27% of employers with hard to fill vacancies reporting this compared to just 18% nationally. A particularly challenge is that, although the proportion of young people coming out of education with formal qualifications in recent years has increased markedly, employers continue to state that many young people are not well prepared for the world of work. Employers responded overwhelmingly that it is not academic qualifications that are lacking in poorly prepared individuals (only 3% responded thusly) but rather it is a “poor attitude / personality or lack of motivation” (53%) or “lack of working world / life experience or maturity” (48%) where Greater Manchester’s young people are falling short. Similar issues are reported for GM’s adult population.

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Current skills provision Young people are the flow of future workforce skills, and although qualifications are not synonymous with skills, they are the best proxy available. Over four-fifths (81.9%) of young people achieve the equivalent of a Level 2 qualification (5+A* to C grades) at Key Stage 4 however this falls to less than three-fifths if English and Maths are included. Provision at Level 3 for those aged 16-19 has, correspondingly, increased markedly. However, the data suggest that many young people (estimated to be around 4,000) are undertaking further study at the same or lower level as they have already achieved. In 2011/12, the majority of 16-19 year olds in GM, 55,700, studied in a further education (FE) institution and 7,750 studied in a school sixth form (SSFs). In FE 65% of starts were at level 3, 17% at level 2 and 16% at level 1 or entry level. Almost all (97%) of provision in SSFs was at level 3. Just under 10,000 young people started an apprenticeship in 2010/11, threequarters of which were at an Intermediate level (Level 2). There were 234,032 adult (19 years and older) starts funded by the SFA in GM in 2010/11. Discounting “other”, 51% of starts were at Level 1 or below, 38% were at Level 2 and 10% were at Level 3. Just 1% of starts were at Level 4 or higher. More than half (58.1%) of starts were in the largest ten providers, and more than three quarters (77.5%) were in the top 20. A significant proportion of SFA funded adult provision does not map directly to a sector, as either the sector is unknown or the qualification is of a general preparatory (e.g. general employability skills) or academic nature. Of those that do relate to sectors, the largest were Business IT & Telecommunications, Construction and Business Administration and Governance. There were 18,337 starts in adult apprenticeships in 2010/11. Intermediate Level Apprenticeships (Level 2 equivalent) accounted for 62.7% of starts. Advanced Level Apprenticeships (Level 3 equivalent) accounted for 36.5% of starts. Just 140 starts (0.7%) were Higher Level Apprenticeships (Level 4 equivalent). GM is home to five universities (the University of Manchester, Manchester Metropolitan University, University of Salford, University of Bolton and University of Huddersfield, Oldham campus) who collectively have more than 100,000 students and almost 30,000 graduates each year. It is estimated that 58% of graduates from the five GM universities enter employment in the local area, equating to approximately 18,000 graduates from Manchester universities every year. The largest subject of study by pupil numbers is Business and Administrative Studies, with 17,245 (16.1%) students in GM, followed by Subjects Allied to Medicine (covering subjects such as nursing, nutrition and medical technology) with 14,570 (13.6%) students, and Engineering and Technology with 10,650 (10.0%) of students.

Next steps The Partnership will use the evidence in this document to set skills priorities and outcomes for GM for 2012/13. The LMI Steering Group will build on the evidence in this document to develop GM’s LMI offer so that it increasingly meets the needs of providers in their curriculum planning. The first stage of this will be sector ‘deep dives’, which will be undertaken in quarter 4 2012.

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1 INTRODUCTION 1.1

Following the establishment of the Skills and Employment Partnership (SEP), discussions have been on-going with colleges and providers to ascertain how Greater Manchester’s (GM’s) labour market information offer can be enhanced so that it can more effectively influence curriculum planning. In parallel, securing a more effective skills system has also been established as one of the central planks of GM’s City Deal. Through the Deal, Government has agreed to support GM to better link mainstream skills funding and activities to the priorities of the local economy.

1.2

This will be achieved through the development of a City Skills Plan. This Plan will setout GM’s priorities for skills funding and will establish an annual planning cycle through which these priorities will be agreed with colleges and other skills providers and set-out in the form of ‘Provider Agreements’.

1.3

The Skills Funding Agency will work with the SEP to implement an approach through which skills funding allocations are informed by GM’s priorities and the Agreements entered into with colleges and other providers. The diagram below illustrates this planning cycle and how the key components of the City Deal interrelate: Skills in the City Deal

Establish GM Priorities and Outcomes for Skills & Employment

Government action and investment aligned to GM Priorities and Outcomes

Providers agree their contribution to GM Priorities

SFA ensure that GM Outcomes embedded in Skills Funding arrangements

1.4

This document presents labour market analysis and research to inform the first stage of the planning cycle: the identification of common GM labour market priorities and outcomes by the Partnership. It sets out the latest demand-side and supply-side skills intelligence for GM. The principal focus of the analysis is the further education sector (i.e. provision funded by the Skills Funding Agency), as part of a wider context that includes the performance of young people pre-19 and the contribution of the conurbation’s five universities.

1.5

The paper is set out as follows:     

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Section 2 provides a broad labour market and policy context for GM and the UK; Section 3 assesses the demand for skills from employers both short-term and in the medium to long term; Section 4 presents the latest supply-side data for GM; Section 5 analyses the key market failures identified in GM’s key sectors; and Section 6 sets out the next steps for the setting of GM’s skills priorities and the development of GM’s LMI offer going forward.

2 SKILLS AND EMPLOYMENT IN CONTEXT 2.1

This section sets the context in which GM is developing its skills and employment priorities. It highlights the key skills messages coming from local and national strategies before providing a detailed analysis of recent labour market performance in GM.

Greater Manchester and national context 2.2

The Manchester Independent Economic Review (MIER)1 concluded that, outside London, the city region’s scale and potential to improve its productivity makes it the best placed city to drive economic growth in the UK. The reviewers identified two challenges Greater Manchester faces in achieving this. One was to boost productivity, the other was to ensure that all parts of the city region, and all its people, are able to benefit from the stronger economy. The importance of skills is at the heart of both these challenges. Following on from the MIER, Greater Manchester has set out a series of ambitions for skills and employment in the Greater Manchester Strategy2.

2.3

The ‘Better Life Chances’ and ‘Highly Skilled’ interventions from the Greater Manchester Strategy are most relevant, but the objectives relating to ‘ Attracting and Retaining Talent’, ‘Expanding and Diversifying the Economic Base’ and ‘Increasing International Connectivity’ are also significant. The main strategic objectives are listed below: Better Life Chances – Strategic Objectives 

Improve the economic prospects of adults in our most deprived communities by substantially improving adult skills levels, particularly improving the volume of people with economically valuable skills



Improve the economic prospects of adults in our most deprived communities



Improve the economic prospects of young people in our most deprived communities by improving attainment rates and progression to higher education – either academic or vocational



Increasing access to employment opportunities in deprived areas



Tackling child poverty, in particular focusing on the employment and income levels of parents, to improve the life chances of the next generation of Manchester city region residents

Highly Skilled – Strategic Objectives 

Increase the number of residents progressing into learning at Level 4 and above

The Manchester Independent Economic Review (MIER) consisted of a Commission of prominent economists and business leaders, supported by a Policy Advisory Group and Secretariat with responsibility for commissioning high quality evidence-based research to inform decision makers in Manchester. 2 AGMA (2009), Prosperity for All: The Greater Manchester Strategy, available at: http://neweconomymanchester.com/stories/842-greater_manchester_strategy

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

Increase the numbers studying Science, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics (STEM) and key future languages



Increase the level of generic skills among young people and adults (such as effective communication, team-working and customer care)



Increase the proportion of employers engaged in formal workforce development and leadership training



Improve the quality and relevance of skills provision by strengthening local strategic powers, planning and partnerships which ensure a demand-led system of skills provision



Increase the number of young people staying in learning and achieving Level 2/3 qualifications at 19 years old

2.4

The Greater Manchester Strategy is currently being refreshed, which will result in a revised set of strategic objectives for employment and skills. This document will form part of the evidence base that determines the new strategic objectives.

2.5

The Greater Manchester Growth Plan, published in March 2012 by GM’s independent Economic Advisory Panel, reiterates the importance of skills for Greater Manchester’s growth ambitions, stressing that a clearer focus on employer needs all along the skills spectrum is required in skills policy and recommending that skills funding should become far more responsive to the needs of business3.

2.6

Skills for Sustainable Growth, published by BIS in November 2010, set out Government’s vision of how a freer, more user-focused adult further education and skills system could make a major contribution to economic recovery. This was followed in December 2011 by New Challenges, New Chances which set out Government’s intentions for the future landscape of further education and skills and heralded the implementation of a series of structural and other changes to the skills system in England.

2.7

Government sees the following as the key features of the adult education and skills system we have today: 

Learners and employers are empowered to shape the system and able to make informed choices about the provision they need, but also expected to invest in those skills;



Public funding is focussed on those who need the most help, particularly young adults, the unemployed and low-skilled;



A wide range of provision is available from community learning and engagement programmes through to Apprenticeships and higher vocational education with a Qualifications and Credit Framework that supports progression;



Colleges and providers have the freedom and flexibility to deliver the skills that employers and individuals want, operating in a demand-led system.

Greater Manchester Economic Advisory Panel (2012) The Greater Manchester Growth Plan available at:: http://neweconomymanchester.com/stories/1544-greater_manchester_growth_plan

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2.8

Alongside the changes to the adult skills system, Government has also begun to implement its localism agenda. The establishment of Local Enterprise Partnerships and, more recently, the agreement of Core City Deals has put local business and other key stakeholders in a key position as influencers and shapers of their local skills system.

2.9

Most recently, Whole Place Community Budget Pilots (including in Manchester), are seeing government officials working as part of a joint team with local partners to establish a series of proposals for devolved budgets which will be managed through localised decision-making structures.

2.10 While BIS continues to set national policy priorities for skills in an annual Skills Investment Statement, colleges and providers are expected to work with their local LEPs, Core Cities, local communities and other stakeholders to deliver a programme of provision that meets local economic need.

A low skilled equilibrium 2.11 Skills have been identified as one of the five drivers of productivity, which interacts with the level of investment, innovation, enterprise and competition to determine the rate of economic growth4. The MIER identified skills as the key factor in GM’s £7.2 billion productivity gap with the rest of the UK. It has been has estimated that a quarter of this output gap is caused by low levels of economic activity – as low activity rates reduce the available workforce and constrain output levels – and three quarters is caused by low productivity of those in work, of which low skill levels is a critical component.5 2.12 GM’s poor performance in relation to both levels of economic participation and productivity is highlighted in Figure 1. GM is amongst a group of cities with low productivity and low employment compared to national averages, locked in a ‘low skills equilibrium’. Forecasts produced by the Greater Manchester Forecasting Model suggest that, unless significant action is taken, Manchester will continue to experience a productivity gap with the rest of the UK, which will further stretch the output gap.

HMT (2000) Productivity in the UK: The Evidence and the Government’s Approach. Available at http://www.hmtreasury.gov.uk/d/ACF1FBA.pdf 5 Sebnem Oguz and Jonathan Knight (2010). ‘Regional economic indicators’. Economic & Labour Market Review, Vol 4, No 2, February 2010

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Figure 1: Employment rate, productivity and GVA in UK’s major cities HIGH PRODUCTIVITY LOW EMPLOYMENT

HIGH PRODUCTIVITY HIGH EMPLOYMENT

London

Edinburgh Glasgow

Birmingham

Bristol

Leeds

Cardiff GM

EMPLOYMENT RATE UK AVERAGE: 70%

Liverpool Newcastle LOW PRODUCTIVITY LOW EMPLOYMENT

LOW PRODUCTIVITY HIGH EMPLOYMENT

GVA PER CAPITA UK AVERAGE: £20,341

Source: Office for National Statistics (2012)

2.13 GM also compares poorly in productivity terms to key European comparators. Looking at GDP per capita (in Euros)6 across GM and four peer cities shows that not only does GM lag in absolute terms (with GDP per capita of just €25,700) but it has also lost ground on better performing cities in recent years. Table 1: GM’s productivity compared with four European cities PRODUCTIVITY

CHANGE

2000

2008

Amsterdam

29,500

38,100

8,600

29.20%

Barcelona

22,600

30,200

7,700

34.00%

Hamburg

38,200

47,100

9,000

23.50%

Lyon

22,300

26,800

4,500

20.20%

Manchester

21,300

25,700

4,400 20.40% Source: Eurostat (2011)

2.14 A significant influence on the productivity gap is that, on average, GM residents earn less than residents in other parts of the country. GM ranks towards the bottom of UK comparator city regions for average gross earning. This is caused in part by residents on average being employed in lower value activities; however residents in the city region also earn lower wages for the same activity. While this does affect Manchester’s productivity figures, it should be noted that this is also a source of competitive advantage for the city region.

Currency conversions for this data were calculated by Eurostat using the appropriate exchange rate for each year.

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2.15 Low paid work does not just affect GM’s productivity figures, it also places a significant cost on the Exchequer. There are 288,600 claimants of Tax Credits in GM, the vast majority of which (75.3%) are in work, much of which will be low paid. With an annual average entitlement of £4,952, this means there is an annual spend of £1.5bn in GM on Tax Credits, as summarised in Table 2 below. Table 2: Tax Credit claimant families by economic activity and average annual entitlement 2010/11 OUT OF WORK TOTAL IN WORK N £ N £ N £ Bolton 7,600 £ 5,298 26,100 £ 4,999 33,800 £ 5,066 Bury 4,000 £ 5,141 16,900 £ 4,716 20,800 £ 4,797 Manchester 19,400 £ 5,457 36,200 £ 5,794 55,500 £ 5,676 Oldham 7,000 £ 5,627 21,600 £ 5,419 28,500 £ 5,470 Rochdale 6,900 £ 5,278 20,000 £ 5,166 26,900 £ 5,195 Salford 7,500 £ 5,293 18,900 £ 5,048 26,500 £ 5,117 Stockport 5,300 £ 5,085 22,700 £ 4,099 28,100 £ 4,287 Tameside 6,400 £ 5,055 21,400 £ 4,500 27,900 £ 4,628 Trafford 4,000 £ 5,127 16,800 £ 4,273 20,800 £ 4,438 Wigan 7,600 £ 4,933 29,700 £ 4,007 37,300 £ 4,195 GM 75,700 £ 5,277 230,400 £ 4,845 306,100 £ 4,952 NW 179,700 £ 5,175 600,300 £ 4,522 779,900 £ 4,673 UK 1,462,000 £ 5,203 4,845,200 £ 4,320 6,307,500 £ 4,525 Source: HM Treasury (2012)

Skills levels and economic participation in Greater Manchester 2.16 Qualification achievement is the best proxy available for the skills levels of an individual or area. Figure 2 sets out how GM compares with regional and national comparators. While overall GM performs well compared to the regional average, it significantly lags the UK average. This is especially the case at higher skills levels, where the proportion of degree level or equivalent qualified residents in GM is 2.7 percentage points below the national average. 2.17 However, the situation is far from universal across the conurbation, with the proportion of residents holding a degree or equivalent qualification highest in Trafford (39.4%), Manchester (38.3%) and Stockport (36.8%), and the same boroughs holding high proportions of those qualified to Level 3 and above with 57.7%, 56.6% and 56.4% respectively. Boroughs with the most concerning skills profile include Tameside, where more than a third (35.5%) lower than a Level 2, as well as Oldham and Rochdale where this proportion was 35.4% and 34.7% respectively.

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Figure 2: Qualification level by district 100% 90%

25.9%

80% 70%

60%

29.3%

19.8% 19.1%

18.4%

23.8%

23.1%

30%

20% 10%

17.6% 13.5%

23.2% 18.7%

19.9%

50%

40%

19.3% 38.3%

25.6%

27.0%

12.9%

22.3%

9.8%

14.0%

25.4%

19.6% 19.2%

18.9% 15.9%

28.9%

22.4%

19.4%

19.6%

23.9%

21.5%

22.4%

21.1%

16.7%

17.0%

17.1%

16.6%

11.3%

12.2%

12.0%

10.9%

32.7%

21.4%

18.9% 12.2%

NVQ4+

NVQ3

16.1% 14.1%

6.9%

NVQ2

18.6%

18.3% 19.5%

17.1%

16.2%

29.9%

18.1%

19.6% 23.4%

25.7% 39.4%

19.7%

16.5%

17.9%

21.0% 36.8%

6.7%

NVQ1

NVQ0

Source: Annual Population Survey (2012)

2.18 Skills levels directly feed into employment rates. As Figure 3 shows, there is a clear correlation between an individualâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s level of highest qualification and their employment rate. At the extreme, the employment rate of those with degree level equivalent qualifications is above 80% whereas the employment rate of those with no qualifications is below 40%. Since the peak of the economic cycle in 2004 employment rates have fallen across the skills spectrum but this relationship has held. Figure 3: Employment rate by qualification level in GM 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40%

30% 20% 10% 0% 2004

2005

2006

NVQ0

2007

NVQ1

2008

NVQ2

2009

NVQ3

2010

2011

NVQ4+

Source: Annual Population Survey (2012)

2.19 Breaking down economic activity by qualification level highlights further the relationship between skills and participation. Those that are economically inactive (i.e. those that are not in work and not actively seeking work) are four times more likely to have no formal qualifications than those who are employed. Itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s clear that economic activity and employment correlate with higher qualification levels, as Figure 4 below shows. More than half (54.4%) of the economically active have Level 3 qualifications or above and a third (34.7%) have the equivalent of a degree. Among the employed, higher qualifications are even more prevalent, with 56.8% holding a Level 3 or higher and

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36.7% holding the equivalent of a degree. Conversely, of the unemployed, more than a third (37.6%) didnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t hold a Level 2 and of the economically inactive this was even higher at 44.3%. Figure 4: Qualification level by economic activity in GM 100% 90%

80%

436,600

416,200

331,610

50%

40%

368,585

30% 20% 10%

20,680

82,390

70% 60%

20,400

76,000 512,600

249,220

94,765

228,540

273,820

84,945

238,190

35,630

29,790

290,805

205,860

208,500

92,100

ALL

ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE NVQ4+

176,070

116,400

16,500

75,600 ECONOMICALLY INACTIVE NVQ3 NVQ2

EMPLOYED NVQ1

UNEMPLOYED

NVQ0

Source: Annual Population Survey (2012)

2.20 The significant skills challenge indicated by the analysis above facing those out of work has been exacerbated in recent years, as there has been a general up-skilling of those in work. In 2004 around 12% of the workforce had no formal qualifications, in 2011 this had fallen by half to just 6%. The proportion with Level 4 and above qualifications rose most significantly, with those with intermediate level qualifications remaining broadly static. Figure 5: Qualification level â&#x20AC;&#x201C; share of those employed in GM 40% 35% 30% 25% 20%

15% 10% 5% 0%

2004

2005

2006

NVQ0

2007

NVQ1

2008

NVQ2

2009

NVQ3

2010

2011

NVQ4+

Source: Annual Population Survey (2012)

Skills and age group 2.21 Age is a major determining factor in terms of the skill level of individuals, with older individuals having had more chance to go through education, however historically having been less likely to go to university while younger. This is evident in the skills profile of GM as summarised in Figure 6 below, which shows that those aged 16-24 are least likely to be qualified to NVQ Level 4 or higher (16.1%) but most likely to hold NVQ level 3 only (30.2%), and with a large proportion aged under 19, more are likely to be

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qualified only to NVQ Level 2 (29.2%). Encouragingly also this age group had the lowest proportion with no qualification at 8.5% which shows progress when compared with the other, older cohorts which have larger proportions with no qualifications. 2.22 The 25-49 group is the highest qualified, with 37.2% holding the equivalent of an NVQ Level 4 or higher, and more than half (53.9%) holding an NVQ Level 3 or higher. This group had fewer qualified to NVQ Level 2 only (19.6%) but a larger proportion had no qualifications (9.4%). 2.23 The 50-64 group is perhaps the most concerning with respect to formal qualifications: only 25.7% hold NVQ Level 4 or above, and 42.2% holding a Level 3 or higher. Onefifth (20.8%) of the cohort had no formal qualification whatsoever, implying a significant employment challenge should these individuals be or become unemployed. Figure 6: Qualification level by age group in GM â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 2011 100% 90%

16.1%

25.7% 37.2%

80% 70%

30.2%

16.5%

60%

16.7%

50%

40%

19.5% 29.2%

19.6%

30% 20%

17.5% 16.0%

17.1%

8.5%

9.4%

16-24

25-49

20.8%

10%

NVQ4+

NVQ3

NVQ2

50-64 NVQ1

NVQ0

Source: Annual Population Survey (2012)

2.24 Although the proportion of young people coming out of education with formal qualifications in recent years has increased markedly, employers continue to state that many are not well prepared for the world of work. This is particularly critical at this point in the economic cycle where high youth unemployment is a major local and national policy concern. 2.25 As summarised in Table 3, compared to employers in other Core City LEP areas and London, employers in GM are less likely to think that young people leaving school at 16 and leaving university are well prepared for work. The perception of employers for those young people recruited from college fared better by comparison. Although these results are based on a survey, the sample sizes are large enough that we can be confident that the results are a fair reflection of employer opinion.

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16 YEAR OLD SCHOOL LEAVERS

17-18 YEAR OLDS RECRUITED TO FIRST JOB FROM SCHOOL

17-18 YEAR OLDS RECRUITED TO FIRST JOB FROM FE COLLEGE

UNIVERSTY OR HE LEAVERS RECRUITED TO FIRST JOB FROM UNIVERSITY

Table 3: Percentage very well prepared/well prepared for work in England’s Core LEP areas and London

Derbyshire & Nottinghamshire,

61%

66%

74%

86%

Greater Birmingham and Solihull

59%

69%

72%

84%

Greater Manchester

54%

68%

76%

83%

Leeds City Region

59%

69%

80%

89%

Liverpool City Region

61%

72%

70%

87%

London

60%

64%

70%

81%

North Eastern

60%

65%

72%

85%

Sheffield City Region

55%

64%

77%

89%

West of England

55%

71%

73%

85%

Total

59% 66% 74% 83% Source: National Employer and Skills Survey 2011 (2012)

2.26 Unprompted, employers responded overwhelmingly that it is not academic qualifications that are lacking in poorly prepared individuals (only 3% responded thusly) but rather it is a “poor attitude / personality or lack of motivation” (53%) or “lack of working world / life experience or maturity” (48%) where Greater Manchester’s young people are falling short.

Recent labour market performance 2.27 The 2008 recession, the subsequent public sector restructuring and the “double dip” now being experienced in the UK have all impacted on GM’s labour market in recent years. However GM has, since before the recession, experienced a falling employment rate and economic inactivity (those not employed but not looking for work for reasons ranging from sickness or study) has long been a structural problem for the conurbation. 2.28 As Figure 7 below shows, in the survey year to March 2012, of the 1,721,200 working age GM residents: 

129,800 (7.5%) were unemployed, an increase from 5.0% in March 2008;



456,900 (26.5%) were economically inactive, an increase from 25.6% in March 2008; and



1,134,500 (65.9%) were in employment, a fall from 69.4% in March 2008.

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299 1,112

1,409

3,020

28,163

457 130 1,135

461 124 1,147

468

463

465

455

454

449

443

436

435

436

443

441

433

436

90%

430

100%

116

120 1,141

114 1,150

1,148

116 1,145

111

122 1,139

1,148

131

108 1,151

1,132

96 1,152

127

92 1,154

1,138

88 1,164

123

85 1,161

1,140

84 1,166

80% 70%

9,502

Figure 7: Employment, Unemployment and Inactivity in Greater Manchester (000s)

60%

50% 40% 30% 20% 10%

INACTIVITY

UNEMPLOYMENT

EMPLOYMENT

Source: Annual Population Survey (2012)

2.29 The impact of the recession is also clearly visible in terms of the numbers claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA), with the number more than doubling since the start of the recession. In total there are currently 83,620 JSA claimants in GM, of which: 

24,380 (29.2%) are aged 16-24;



47,355 (56.6%) are aged 25-49; and



11,885 (14.25) are aged 50-64.

2.30 With regard to young people, the proportion of those age 16-18 not in education employment or training (NEET) has not risen significantly since the start of the recession. In May 2012, of the 97,294 young people aged 16-18 in GM, 87,031 (89.5%) were in education, employment or training (EET). Controlling for changes to the cohort size, this meant that there were 0.3 percentage points (pp) fewer young people in EET on the quarter, and 0.1pp fewer on May last year. The NEET rate increased by 0.5pp on the quarter but this was still a 0.5pp fall on May 2011. The number “Not Known” increased by 0.4pp on the quarter and 1.0 pp on May last year. Table 4: 16-18 year olds NEET, EET and Not known in GM MAY-12 16-18 COHORT EET NEET NOT KNOWN

N 97,294 87,031 6,805 3,230

% 89.5% 7.0%

QUARTERLY CHANGE N 14,730 12,947 1,445

PP -0.3 0.5

ANNUAL CHANGE N 22,445 19,999 1,171

PP -0.1 -0.5

3.3% 816 0.4 1,506 1.0 Source: Compiled by: Business Support Team, Careers Solutions

2.31 However, it is with respect to long-term claimants that not only is the impact of the recession more prominent, but where the real skills issues reside: the number unemployed for 6 months or more is at its highest since 1997 standing at 39,125 – almost half of all claimants. Broken down by age group: 

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9,530 (24.4%) are aged 16-24;

016



23,360 (59.7%) are aged 25-49; and



6,230 (15.9%) are aged 50-64.

2.32 These proportions are summarised in Figure 8 below, which shows an underlying level of “frictional” unemployment preceding the recession, mainly constituted of individuals claiming for less than 6 months, with a large proportion of the post-recession increase being in long-term claimants, although both have risen substantially since the onset of recession. Figure 8: JSA claimants in GM by age and duration since 1992 160,000 140,000

120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000

Jan-92 Sep-92 May-93 Jan-94 Sep-94 May-95 Jan-96 Sep-96 May-97 Jan-98 Sep-98 May-99 Jan-00 Sep-00 May-01 Jan-02 Sep-02 May-03 Jan-04 Sep-04 May-05 Jan-06 Sep-06 May-07 Jan-08 Sep-08 May-09 Jan-10 Sep-10 May-11 Jan-12

50-64 6 MONTHS +

25-49 6 MONTHS +

16-24 6 MONTHS +

50-64 < 6 MONTHS

16-24 < 6 MONTHS

25-49 < 6 MONTHS

Source: Department for Work and Pensions (2012)

2.33 GM is far from alone in these trends however, and as Figure 9 below shows, in several measures – including unemployment and youth unemployment – GM has fared better than both the region and the country in terms of the recession’s impact. However, GM began from a worse starting position, and remains in a worse situation than the UK in 2012 in absolute terms also. Figure 9: Change in economic indicators 2008-2012* 47.6% 53.5% 43.1%

YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT

59.5% 55.2% 54.7%

UNEMPLOYMENT 7.2% 11.3% 15.0%

INACTIVE WHO WANT A JOB ECONOMICALLY INACTIVE

2.7% 6.3% 1.7% 0.9% 1.1%

-0.7%

ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE -1.0% -3.2% -5.3% -0.1%

PRIVATE SECTOR EMPLOYMENT PUBLIC SECTOR EMPLOYMENT

0.6%

5.6% 4.5% 7.8% 6.3%

SELF EMPLOYMENT YOUTH EMPLOYMENT

EMPLOYMENT

-13.1% -14.3% -16.6% -1.4% -2.5% -2.7%

-30.0% -20.0% -10.0%

0.0%

10.0% UK

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

Source: Annual Population Survey (2012)

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*Survey year to March

2.34 Several significant policy changes are feeding into this challenging labour market context â&#x20AC;&#x201C; particularly entitlement changes for Incapacity Benefit (IB) and Lone Parent Income Support (LPIS) claimants, although wider welfare reform will have an impact on claimants of all benefits. The change in the stock of these benefits over time is summarised in Figure 10 below â&#x20AC;&#x201C; which highlights that the majority (54.2%) of all out of work claimants are on Employment Support Allowance (ESA) or IB, with 31.2% on JSA and 11.5% lone parents on Income Support, Table 5 shows the different numbers and proportions of claimants in each borough. Figure 10: Out of work benefits claimants in GM summarised by age 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0

25+ JOBSEEKER

U25 JOBSEEKER

25+ LP

U25 LP

25+ ESA/IB

U25 ESA/IB

Source: Department for Work and Pensions (2012) Table 5: Out of work benefits claimants by borough (% is of all out of work claimants) JOBSEEKER N

ESA/IB N

LONE PARENT %

OTHER OUT OF WORK N

OUT OF WORK TOTAL N

Bolton

8,560

30.8%

15,380

55.3%

2,940

10.6%

950

3.4%

27,830

Bury

4,980

30.6%

9,150

56.1%

1,660

10.2%

510

3.1%

16,300

31.5%

33,350

51.9%

8,580

13.4%

2,070

3.2%

64,230

Oldham

8,120

34.0%

12,140

50.8%

2,930

12.3%

720

3.0%

23,910

Rochdale

7,980

31.8%

13,570

54.1%

2,770

11.0%

780

3.1%

25,100

Salford

8,460

30.3%

15,200

54.5%

3,440

12.3%

780

2.8%

27,880

Stockport

6,300

30.4%

11,320

54.7%

2,380

11.5%

710

3.4%

20,710

Tameside

7,240

30.4%

13,200

55.4%

2,630

11.0%

760

3.2%

23,830

Trafford

4,820

31.3%

8,540

55.4%

1,640

10.6%

420

2.7%

15,420

Wigan

9,650

30.4%

18,140

57.2%

3,000

9.5%

920

2.9%

31,710

86,330

31.2%

150,010

54.2%

31,970

11.5%

8,600

3.1%

276,910

207,280

30.3%

379,340

55.4%

75,890

11.1%

21,670

3.2%

684,180

1,589,350

32.5%

2,548,350

52.1%

584,140

11.9%

169,090

3.5%

4,890,930

Manchester

20,230

Source: Department for Work and Pensions (2012)

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Benefit reform 2.35 The most significant change to benefit entitlements currently being enacted is the phasing in of ESA. In late 2008 IB was replaced by ESA for new claimants. Those already claiming IB before that date began to be transferred to ESA in June 2011, with the full transfer of all IB claimants due by April 2014. IB claimants will undertake a Work Capability Assessment and be judged either “Fit for Work” (and not eligible for ESA, although they may be eligible for another benefit such as JSA) or as being potentially fit for work at some point in the near future (moving onto the ESA Work Related Activity Group – WRAG) or as being unable to work and moved into the ESA Support Group. 2.36 Excluding the estimated 33,000 IB claimants who will be retiring and not reassessed at all, there will be an estimated 87,000 long-term economically inactive individuals reassessed between June 2011 and April 2014. Assuming that the current proportions of outcomes completed apply to all of these individuals: 

33,000 will be judged “Fit for work”;



29,400 will move onto the ESA WRAG; and



26,000 will move onto the ESA Support Group.

2.37 This clearly poses a significant challenge to local partners in finding work appropriate for individuals who have all been out of work for several years, many of whom will have health conditions (albeit not judged serious enough to be kept in the ESA Support Group) who will now be under more stringent job seeking conditionality. Moreover an estimated 60% have no qualification whatsoever, placing them at a significant disadvantage in the labour market.7 2.38 Significant changes, albeit with a smaller cohort of claimants are also being enacted with Lone Parents claiming Income support. From 24th November 2008 Lone Parents (LPs) with a youngest child aged 12 or over were no longer able to make a new or repeat claim for Income Support (IS) solely on the basis of their parental status. From October 2009 this policy was extended to LPs with a youngest child aged 10 or 11 and from October 2010 the policy was extended to LPs with a youngest child aged 7 or over, and in October 2011 this age was reduced to 5. Although these Lone Parents will not be automatically transferred to JSA, many are expected to make a claim for JSA and, as Figure 11 below shows, this has been the case up to the most recent data available (to July 2011) when there were 6,070 LPs on JSA, an increase of 62.1% on 2010 and 168.0% on 2009. Since 2009 LPs on IS have fallen by 5,920 while LPs on JSA have risen by only 3,805, implying that almost two thirds of those losing their entitlement to IS move on to JSA.

Christina Beatty and Steve Fothergill (2010) Incapacity Benefits in the UK: An Issue of Health of Jobs University of Sheffield: Centre for Regional and Economic Social Research. Available at: http://www.socialpolicy.org.uk/lincoln/Beatty.pdf

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Figure 11: Impact of Long Parent Income Support policy changes on claimants 45,000 40,000

35,000 30,000

25,000 20,000

15,000 10,000

5,000 0

LPIS TOTAL

YOUTH LPIS

25+ LPIS

LP JSA

Source: Department for Work and Pensions (2012)

2.39 Research has shown that, when recruiting long-term unemployed or inactive claimants, employers are less demanding of technical skills, considering them trainable, if candidates exhibit employability and soft skills and positive attributes.8

Work programme performance 2.40 The Department for Work and Pensions’ Work Programme is the Government’s main focus for moving unemployed people back into work – whether transferred from IB or IS as above or new claimants from other sources. Thus far (up to April 2012) 39,800 people have been referred to the Work Programme in GM, of which: 

8,290 (20.8%) were JSA claimants aged 18-24;



14,530 (36.5%) were JSA claimants aged 25 and over; and



12,880 (32.4%) were JSA “early entrants”.

2.41 Together, these three JSA groups make up 89.7% of all referrals, with an additional 210 (0.5%) ex-IB JSA claimants. Of the remaining claimants, 3,500 (8.8%) were of the various ESA groups; 60 (0.2%) were IB/IS volunteers and 260 (0.7%) were prison leavers.

Winterbotham, M., Adams, L., Kuechel, A. (2001), Evaluation of the Work Based Learning for Adults Programme since April 2001: Qualitative interviews with ES Staff, Providers and Employers, DWP cited in Becci Newton, Jennifer Hurstfield, Linda Miller, Rosie Page and Karen Akroyd (2005), What employers look for when recruiting the unemployed and inactive: skills, characteristics and qualifications, DWP. Available at http://research.dwp.gov.uk/asd/asd5/rports2005-2006/rrep295.pdf

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3 EMPLOYER DEMAND 3.1

This section articulates what is currently known about employer demand for skills in GM, broken down into ‘short-term’ employer demand (i.e. demand from employers over the next year or so) and ‘medium/long term’ demand (i.e. forecast demand over the next five to 10 years. First, however, it sets out how GM’s employment structure has changed over the past decade.

Changing economic structure 3.2

GM’s employment growth has been driven by the large-scale and rapid expansion of the service sector, particularly financial & professional services. This sector accounts for a sixth of employment, a fifth of GVA and businesses, and contributed 40.1% toward employment growth in GM over the decade prior to the recession.

3.3

Although smaller in size, GM has also developed its creative & digital industries to the stage where they represent the UK’s biggest centre for the industries outside the Greater Southeast. This specialisation is forecast to increase over the coming decade as MediaCity:UK and other assets develop.

3.4

The size, strength and importance of GM’s universities, colleges and providers mean that Education is another key service specialism for the conurbation, though the changing funding environment facing the sector presents significant challenges, but also some opportunities, over the coming decade.

3.5

GM’s history means the conurbation still retains strengths in manufacturing. Manufacturing as a whole has seen employment decline by more than a third over the last decade, as manufacturers have become more capital intensive and concentrated upon related activities, such as design and after-sales services.

3.6

Health and social care is the second largest employer in GM, which is in line with national trends. Although the majority of health employment and growth is within the public sector, the specialist and high-value biotechnology and life sciences sub-sectors have also seen strong growth.

Figure 12: Employment by sector footprint in 2012 and change since 2002 Financial & Professional Services Health and social care Retail Manufacturing Education Construction Hospitality and Tourism Creative / Digital / New Media Public Sector Logistics ICT Digital and Communications Automotive Sport Aviation -100000

-50000

226,053 161,734 131,193 115,131 104,352 92,957 74,280 62,909 62,669 49,336 41,365 24,577 21,027 12,972 0

50000 2002-12

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100000

150000

200000

250000

2012

021

Source: Oxford Economics (2012)

3.7

This sector shift is also reflected in the type of work people are doing, with a shift away from process plant and machine operatives, as well as skilled trades and elementary occupations, and toward higher skilled professional, managers, directors and senior officials and associate professional occupations. In addition administrative and secretarial occupations have seen a fall, and caring leisure and other service occupations have seen a rise.

Figure 13: Employment by occupation in 2012 and change since 2002 Managers, Directors and Senior Officials

192,527

Associate Professional and Technical

187,222

Professional

159,767

Administrative and Secretarial

158,411

Elementary

150,031

Sales and Customer Service

114,042

Skilled Trades

112,882

Caring, Leisure and Other Service

103,831

Process, Plant and Machine Operatives -50,000

91,677 0

50,000 2002-12

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2012

Source: Oxford Economics (2012)

3.8

3.9

Looking at the occupational structure within GM’s largest sectors, the occupational composition of these sectors (as with their growth going forward) is largely higher skilled – associate professional, professional and managerial: 

In banking, finance and insurance, employment is largely in associate professional and technical (25.0%) and professional occupations (15.6%), with Managerial Directors and Senior Officials making up a further 12.1% - together these occupations associated with higher level qualifications and skills levels make up more than half (52.8%) of employment.



In the public admin education and health sector, employment is disproportionately focused in the Professional occupations, making up more than a third (37.3%) of employment, with almost a quarter (23.2%) in Caring, Leisure and Other service occupations and 13.4% in associate professional and 12.9% in technical and Administrative or Secretarial occupation groups.

The contraction of public sector employment will provide a significant skills challenge to GM. Some 76,000 public sector redundancies are expected across the North West between 2011 and 2013, which will release a significant number of people into a competitive labour market. Research with employers in the North West has identified

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“commercial awareness” as the main skill shortage followed by “appropriate attitude and working culture”.9

Short-Term Employer Demand: Jobcentre Plus Vacancies 3.10 Jobcentre Plus (JCP) regularly release information on the number of vacancies they have on their books broken down by occupation. Over the past year these have been concentrated heavily in sales and customer service roles (24.9%); elementary occupations (16.8%); plant, process and machine operatives (14.6%) and associate professional and technical occupations (13.9%). Together these occupations make up the vast majority (70.2%) of vacancies advertised through JCP. A more detailed breakdown is presented in Appendix 1. 3.11 It should be noted however that these figures do not represent all vacancies (it is estimated that they represent less than half), and are not an accurate cross section of all vacancies, tending to be skewed towards lower-skilled occupations traditionally likely to be more appropriate for JCP clients who – during the years preceding the recession – tended to be lower skilled. These figures can roughly be thought to account for a sizeable proportion of vacancies requiring qualifications at NVQ level 2 or below. Figure 14: Average number of vacancies advertised per month in GM by occupation Sales and Customer Service

4,752

Elementary

3,218

Process, Plant and Machine Operatives

2,787

Associate Professional and Technical

2,658

Personal Service

1,818

Skilled Trades

1,518

Administrative and Secretarial

1,193

Managers and Senior Officials

622

Professional

547 0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Source: Department for Work and Pensions (2012)

Short-term Employer Demand: National Employer Skills Survey 3.12 The most recent National Employer Skills Survey (NESS) conducted by the UK

Commission for Employment and Skills (UKCES) in 2011 reveals a detailed profile of the skills strengths and challenges in GM. 3.13 GM’s overall skills shortage vacancy and skills gaps in the current workforce situation

compared with other Core City LEP areas is summarised in Table 6 below. In general skills gaps (having employees who are not wholly proficient in their role) is a far greater skills issue compared with skills shortages (having vacancies that cannot be filled because candidates lack the required skills) with the former affecting some 16% of GM 9

NWLPN (2012). Making the Transition Beyond the Public Sector, available here: http://neweconomymanchester.com/stories/840-other_publications

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employers and the latter just 2%. GM’s overall performance is broadly in line with the national average and other LEP areas. Table 6: Skills situation summary SSVS ONLY

SKILL GAPS ONLY

SSVS AND SKILL GAPS

SSVS OR SKILL GAPS

NEITHER SSVS NOR SKILLS GAPS

Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire, Greater Birmingham and Solihull Greater Manchester Leeds City Region Liverpool City Region London North Eastern Sheffield City Region

2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 3% 2% 2%

14% 17% 16% 17% 17% 13% 16% 17%

1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

16% 20% 19% 20% 20% 18% 19% 20%

84% 80% 81% 80% 80% 82% 81% 80%

West of England

18%

21%

79%

Total

16%

20%

80%

Source: NESS (2012)

3.14 A low number of applicants with the required skills was the main reason cited for vacancies being hard to fill, with 43% of respondents highlighting this as an issue. However, GM had a worse problem than the other comparator areas with its low number of applicants with the required attitude, motivation or personality at 27% compared to 18% nationally. 3.15 In terms of those vacancies which were hard to fill due to skills shortages, the largest proportion were for Associate Professional occupations (42%) a problem which appears particularly acute in GM, with the national average only being 20%. Hard to fill vacancies were reported for Skilled Trades occupations by 20% of employers and accounted for 13% of hard to fill vacancies. Compared to other LEP areas, GM has a particular problem with respect to Managers Directors and Senior Officials, reported by 10% of employers who have a hard to fill vacancy compared to 5% nationally, and accounting for 7% of hard to fill vacancies compared with only 3% nationally. 3.16 The skills found to be lacking were mostly job specific skills (53%) and technical or practical skills (32%), however 27% of skills shortage vacancies were not due to a particular skills difficulty in GM, far more than nationally (8%) or in other comparator areas. 3.17 Employers’ response was mainly to increase spend on recruitment – 39% increased advertising/recruitment spend while 37% used new recruitment methods (a greater proportion in GM than nationally or in the other comparator areas). 3.18 In terms of the existing workforce, 22% of skills gaps were amongst Sales and Customer Service staff, with 19% among Elementary staff and 13% among Administrative and Clerical staff. When compared with Core City LEP areas, weaknesses are evident in particular with respect to Administrative and Clerical Staff and Associate Professionals, although GM was not the worst of the comparator areas against these measures. 3.19 The main cause of these skills gaps was the employee being new to the role (57%) although many employers found staff to be lacking in motivation (43%) and significant proportion reported that it was because employees had not received the appropriate

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training (34%) – all of which are worse in GM than the Core City LEP areas against which it competes. 3.20 As with hard to fill vacancies, job specific skills were found to be most problematic (68%) – and this was particularly acute in GM, which came out worst of the Core City LEP areas. Planning and Organisation skills were also found to be lacking for 60% of employers with skills gaps in their workforce. GM also compared poorly against several additional measures, including: Basic computer literacy / using IT (25%), Literacy skills (25%), Office admin skills (35%) Customer handling skills (54%) and Team working skills (49%) and was either the poorest or second worst performing area against each of the comparator LEP areas. 3.21 Two-thirds of employers (65%) report that these skills gaps impact on performance; – more than most comparator cities, but less than London (68%) and Liverpool (67%). 3.22 GM employers were more likely than most to act on this however, with 81% taking steps to improve proficiency or skills or staff with skills gaps – more than almost all Core City LEP areas and above the national average (76%). Of the actions taken, more employers in GM were inclined to increase training activity/spend or increase/expand trainee programmes (65%), increase supervision (56%), increase staff appraisals / performance reviews (53%), reallocate work (33%), or change working practises (32%) than other Core City LEP areas, and were the least likely to do nothing (19%). 3.23 Finally, in terms of retaining existing staff, only 6% of GM employers reported this difficulty. Compared to the other eight largest English cities (including London) GM’s principal challenges exist in the following areas: 

Retention of Associate Professionals - 25% of those with retention difficulties said this was the area of most concern (more than any other Core City LEP area) although 21% said it was in Skilled Trades occupations where retention was most difficult and 16% said it was in Elementary staff.



The reason for this retention difficulty for the majority of GM employers, was that not enough people were interested in doing the type of work (53%), 30% said it was a problem with staff’s long term commitment, 29% highlighted a lack of career progression and 28% reported that it was long or unsociable hours leading to this retention difficulty.

3.24 86% of employers who had retention difficulties responded that this resulted in more strain on the management of existing staff in covering the shortage, and 48% reported an increase in recruiting costs, while 43% reported an increase in running costs as a result of recruitment shortages.

Short-Term Employer Demand: Greater Manchester Business Survey 3.25 Interim findings from the Greater Manchester Business Survey (conducted in August and early-September 2012) also highlights specific skills issues currently facing GM employers. 12% of businesses currently have vacancies and of these just under half (46%) are finding them hard to fill. The main cause of having hard to fill vacancies is the low number of applicants with the required skills. Other less prevalent reasons

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include a lack of work experience the company demands and a lack of qualifications the company demands. 3.26 Among those mentioning low numbers of applicants with the required skills, the main skill area is technical and specialist skills. These covered a wider range of occupational areas. However the most frequent hard-to-fill (skill) related vacancies related to general sales skills and electrical and mechanical engineers

Medium and Long-Term Demand: Greater Manchester Forecasting Model 3.27 In order to gauge longer-term demand, employment forecasts are presented below. These are produced by Oxford Economics on behalf of Greater Manchester as part of the annual Greater Manchester Forecasting Model (GMFM). GMFM forecasts that the trend towards increased demand for higher level skills looks set to continue over the next decade: forecasts indicate that of the 921,000 jobs due to be created over the next decade (due to retirements and labour market mobility, as well as growth) half will require skills equivalent to at least NVQ level 3, and a quarter to NVQ level 4. 3.28 The structural change in the economy experienced over the past decade is forecast to continue and will dictate the demand for skills. The financial and professional services sector is expected to continue to dominate, accounting for more than a quarter (28.8%) of all employment opportunities, and more than a third (35.5%) of all employment requiring higher level skills. There is a cross sector requirement for higher level skills although some sectors (hospitality & tourism and retail in particular) will continue to offer significant numbers of lower level jobs. Although the public sector will be cut back, its size will ensure that there will continue to be significant demand for new entrants in education and health and social care, both of which have a demand profile in the next ten years skewed towards higher qualification levels and at NVQ level 4 in particular. Table 7: Net requirement per annum by sector and skill level 2012-22 NVQ0 NVQ1 NVQ2 NVQ3 NVQ4 TOTAL Aviation 84 159 186 178 154 761 Automotive 181 207 410 418 285 1,501 Public Sector 57 106 364 387 682 1,596 Sport 193 240 456 524 674 2,087 Manufacturing 338 413 578 721 758 2,808 Logistics 86 228 895 904 1,386 3,499 ICT Digital & Communications 213 359 754 779 1,669 3,774 Hospitality & Tourism 911 1,355 1,684 1,599 923 6,472 Creative / Digital / New Media 413 581 1,038 1,140 2,266 5,438 Retail 1,169 1,294 2,684 2,307 1,354 8,808 Education 219 380 760 719 3,263 5,341 Construction 938 1,267 1,871 3,244 2,249 9,569 Health and Social Care 547 1,070 2,056 1,907 4,948 10,528 Financial & Professional Services 1,378 2,371 5,031 5,055 11,365 25,200 Total 11,307 13,901 22,897 22,641 21,388 92,134 Source: Oxford Economics (2011) Yellow shading: Top 3 sector requirement for employees for each skill level

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Figure 15: Skill demand (net requirement) by sector in GM 2012-2022 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000

NVQ0

NVQ1

NVQ2

NVQ3

Financial & Professional Services

Life Sciences

Construction

Education

Retail

Creative / Digital / New Media

Hospitality & Tourism

ICT Digital & Communications

Manufacturing

Sport

Public Sector

Automotive

Aviation

Logistics

20,000

NVQ4

Source: Oxford Economics (2011)

3.29 Figure 16 below shows, this changing composition of employment is expected to drive demand for higher level occupations groups (such as Managers, Directors and Senior Officials and Associate Professional and Technical occupations). It is notable that there are also significant job opportunities forecast for lower level occupations in high â&#x20AC;&#x153;churnâ&#x20AC;? occupations such as Elementary and Sales and Customer Service roles. Table 8: Net requirement per annum by occupation and skill level 2012-22 NVQ0

NVQ1

NVQ2

NVQ3

NVQ4

TOTAL

Process, Plant and Machine Operatives

1,020

1,773

1,388

1,164

322

5,667

Skilled Trades

1,165

1,296

1,653

4,044

796

8,954

Elementary

4,999

5,029

5,543

3,871

1,472 20,914

Administrative and Secretarial

379

693

2,390

1,607

1,513

6,582

Caring, Leisure and Other Service

655

1,160

2,774

2,611

1,782

8,982

2,292

2,186

5,683

4,452

1,931 16,544

164

510

1,032

1,534

4,150

7,390

281

316

723

4,353

5,714

592

973

Sales and Customer Service Associate Professional and Technical Professional Managers, Directors and Senior Officials

2,118 2,635 5,069 11,387 Source: Oxford Economics (2011)

Figure 16: Skill demand (net requirement) by occupation in GM 2012-2022 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000

10,000 0 Process, Plant and Administrative and Caring, Leisure and Machine Secretarial Other Service Operatives

NVQ0

Skilled Trades

NVQ1

Professional

NVQ2

NVQ3

Elementary

NVQ4

Associate Sales and Professional and Customer Service Technical

Managers, Directors and Senior Officials

Source: Oxford Economics (2011)

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4 SKILLS SUPPLY 4.1

This section analyses the supply of education and training in Greater Manchester post16, broken down by provision for 16-18 year olds, 19+ further education and workbased learning, and higher education.

4.2

The through-put to this provision is achievement at age 16. As Table 9 below shows, around 30,000 pupils reach the end of Key Stage 4 each year in GM. Over four-fifths (81.9%) of these young people achieve the equivalent of a NVQ Level 2 (5+A* to C grades) however this falls to less than three-fifths if English and Maths are included.

Table 9: Pupils reaching end of KS4 by GCSE qualification attained â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 2010/11

TOTAL

Bolton Bury Manchester Oldham Rochdale Salford Stockport Tameside Trafford Wigan GM NW England

3,418 2,199 4,432 2,967 2,449 2,198 3,006 2,845 2,829 3,772 30,115 79,661 564,874

5+ A*-C grades inc. E&M N 2,037 1,381 2,296 1,664 1,308 1,163 1,942 1,582 1,975 2,154 17,501 46,522 329,886

5+ A*-G grades

5+ A*-C grades

N % N % 2,898 84.8 3,251 95.1 1,777 80.8 2,144 97.5 3,532 79.7 4,055 91.5 2,507 84.5 2,816 94.9 1,795 73.3 2,302 94.0 1,923 87.5 2,106 95.8 2,468 82.1 2,871 95.5 2,299 80.8 2,671 93.9 2,526 89.3 2,750 97.2 2,950 78.2 3,632 96.3 24,676 81.9 28,598 95.0 65,481 82.2 75,837 95.2 455,853 80.7 538,325 95.3 Source: Department for Education (2012)

59.6 62.8 51.8 56.1 53.4 52.9 64.6 55.6 69.8 57.1 58.1 58.4 58.4

16-19: Further Education and School Sixth Forms 4.3

In the year 2011/12 there were almost 63,500 young people in further education (FE) and school sixth forms (SSF) in GM aged between 16 and 19, the vast majority of which (88%) were in FE provision. There is a drop off in learner numbers between 16 and 17 (by 14% between 2010/11 and 2011/12) and a much more significant drop off between 17 and 18 (by 63% between 2010/11 and 2011/12) as young people complete this stage of their education.10

Table 10: Age profile of 16-19 provision in GM 2009/10 N <16

2010/11 %

2011/12 %

CHANGE 09/10-11/12 Percentage N point

600

980

-570

-1%

30,300

44%

29,450

44%

28,340

45%

-1,960

27,430

40%

26,440

39%

25,220

40%

-2,220

10,030

15%

10,620

16%

9,850

16%

-180

The figures quoted have been rounded and suppressed for disclosure reasons, and so may not sum exactly

New Economy

028

19 19+ Total

100

-80

68,470

100%

67,590

100%

63,460 100% -5,010 0% Source: Education Funding Agency (2012)

4.4

The level of provision in SSF has remained broadly constant between 2009/10 and 2011/12 in GM, with the overwhelming majority (97%) of provision being at Level 3. This represents a 0.3 percentage point increase over the period.

4.5

A more significant change has been experienced in further education where the proportion studying at Level 3 has risen from 58% of learners in 2009/10 to 60% in 2010/11 to 65% in 2011/12. Since 2009/10 there have been significant reductions in the proportion of learners studying at Level 2 (17% down from 19%) and the proportion studying an unknown level (down 5 percentage points over the period).

Table 11: SSF learners by notional level 16-19 2009/10 N

2010/11 %

2011/12

CHANGE 09/10-11/12 Percentage N point

Entry Level

-10

Level 1

-10

Level 2

230

280

200

-30

Level 3

7,960

96%

7,540

96%

7,500

97%

-460

8,270

100%

7,890

100%

7,750

100%

-520

Higher Level Total

Table 12: FE learners 16-19 by highest level undertaken 2009/10 N

2010/11 %

2011/12 %

CHANGE 09/10-11/12 Percentage N point

Entry Level

1,860

2,550

1,760

-100

Level 1

7,750

13%

9,440

16%

7,310

13%

-440

Level 2

11,690

19%

10,460

18%

9,660

17%

-2,030

-2%

Level 3

35,030

58%

35,980

60%

36,270

65%

1,240

Level 4

3,850

1,240

690

-3,160

-5%

60,200

100%

59,700

100%

55,710

100%

-4,500

Unknown Total

4.6

Looking just at those aged 16 in 2011/12, there were 4,500 studying at Level 2 and 5,000 at below Level 2. As only around 5,500 young people in 2010/11 in GM failed to leave school without a Level 2 equivalent, this suggests that many young people are undertaking further study at the same or lower level as they have already achieved.

4.7

Turning to mode of attendance, as would be expected for this age group the majority studied full-time for a full year (82%), although this figure has fallen from 84% in 2009/10. There has been a simultaneous rise in the proportion studying full-time for part a year (3%, up from 1% in 2009/10) and those studying part time (15%, up from 14% in 2009/10).

New Economy

029

Table 13: FE learners by mode of attendance 16-19 2009/10 Full-Time Full-Year

09/10-11/12

50,780

84%

50,540

85%

45,560

82%

-5,220

-3%

890

2,780

1,640

750

Part-Time - Distance Learning Part-Time - Evening

Percentage point

320

260

240

-70

8,160

14%

6,050

10%

8,170

15%

-10

60,200

100%

59,700

Part-Time - Other Part-Time Open Missing

4.8

2011/12

N Full-Time Part-Year.

Total

2010/11

100% 55,710 100% -4,500 Source: Education Funding Agency (2012)

These learners studied 263,500 aims. Learners can take multiple aims (some at different levels) which is why these figures differ to those presented above. As Table 14 below shows, 44% of aims studied were at Level 3, with 15% at Level 1, 12% at Level 2 and 9% at Entry Level; however 19% of aims were at an unknown level.

Table 14: Aims studied in 2011/12 at GM FE Colleges and SSFs (FE = enrolments; SSF = aims) 16-19 FE

SSF

FULL-TIME

PART-TIME

NOT APP

Entry Level

17,220

5,290

Level 1

31,560

6,670

Level 2

28,680

Level 3

87,260

TOTAL %

TOTAL

TOTAL %

TOTAL

TOTAL %

22,600

10%

22,670

38,300

16%

640

38,940

15%

2,740

31,420

14%

1,230

32,650

12%

2,080

89,340

38%

27,670

91%

117,010

44%

470

2,600

3,100

46,190

2,190

48,380

21%

690

49,070

19%

211,390

21,580

190

233,170

100%

30,300

100%

263,470

100%

Other Level Level 4 Unknown Total

TOTAL

ALL PROVISION

Source: Education Funding Agency (2012) Table 15: Aims studied in 2011/12 at GM FE Colleges and SSFs (FE = enrolments; SSF = aims) 16-19 ENTRY

Agriculture, Horticulture and Animal Care

N 0

% 0%

N 650

% 4%

N 430

% 2%

Arts, Media and Publishing

480

1,540

Business, Administration and Law Construction, Planning and the Built Environment Education and Training Engineering and Manufacturing Technologies

540

80 0 17 0 14 0

10% 0%

1,530 0

20%

Health, Public Services and Care Information and Communication Technology Languages, Literature and Culture Leisure, Travel and Tourism Retail and Commercial Enterprise Science and Mathematics Social Sciences

New Economy

N 460 14,54 0

% 1% 17%

1,080

8,950

11%

N 0 1 0 2 0

11% 0%

750 50

4% 0%

390 0

1% 0%

1,070

1,410

1,230

16%

3,920

27%

2,140

10%

90 60 30 19 0

11% 7% 3%

290 90 1,070

2% 1% 7%

700 2,050 2,210

23%

1,450

10%

0 0

0% 0%

50 0

0% 0%

TOTAL % 0%

N 1,540

% 1%

33%

16,610

14%

67%

10,620

0 0

0% 0%

2,750 60

2% 0%

3,880

5,760

11,960

10%

3% 10% 10%

4,210 8,530 4,490

5% 10% 5%

0 0 0

0% 0% 0%

5,280 10,720 7,790

4% 9% 6%

2,470

12%

4,880

3,020 150

14% 1%

760 23,13 0 6,970

28% 8%

0 0

0% 0%

26,190 7,120

22% 6%

030

History, Philosophy and Theology Total (with SSA only)

20 85 0

2% 100 %

3,460 14,59 0

24% 100 %

3,480 21,46 0

16% 100 %

4,530 83,96 0

5% 100 %

0 3 0

0% 100 %

11,480 120,89 0

10% 100 %

Source: Education Funding Agency (2012)

4.9

Table 16 and Table 17 below summarise learning aims studied by Sector Subject Area (SSA) and by level in GM’s FE Colleges and SSFs excluding aims related to preparation for life and work and aims with unknown SSAs.

4.10 In FE Colleges: 

Entry level courses made up 850 (1%) of aims, with concentrations in Retail and Commercial Enterprise (23%), Engineering and Manufacturing Technologies (20%) and Health Public services and Care (16%)



Level 1 courses made up 14,600 (12%) of aims, concentrated in Health, Public Services and Care (27%) and History, Philosophy and Theology (24%). Over half (56%) of Construction, Planning and the Built Environment aims were at this level 42% of aims related to Agriculture, Horticulture and Animal Care.



Level 2 courses made up 21,500 (18%) of aims, concentrated in History, Philosophy and Theology (16%), Science and Mathematics (14%) and Retail and Commercial Enterprise (12%). The small number of Education and Training aims were concentrated at this level (50 aims or 92%) and more than half – 2,500 (51%) – of Retail and Commercial Enterprises aims were at this level.



Level 3 courses made up 89,700 (70%) of aims, concentrated in Science and Maths (28%) and Arts, Media and Publishing (17%). The Social Science SSA is particularly concentrated at Level 3 with 6,970 (98%) of its aims, as is Arts, Media and Publishing with 14,540 (88%) of its aims at this level.



There were only 30 Level 4 aims, making up less than 0.1% of provision, all of which were in Business Administration and law and Arts Media and Publishing.

4.11 In SSFs: 

Level 1 aims made up only around 2% of provision, most of which was concentrated in History, Philosophy and Theology.



5% of aims were at Level 2, with concentrations in Science and Mathematics (30%), Languages, Literature and Culture (25%) and History, Philosophy and Theology (20%).



94% of aims were at Level 3 with concentrations in Science and Mathematics (39%), Languages, Literature and Culture (13%) and History, Philosophy and Theology (9%)

New Economy

031

Table 16 FE learning aims by SSA and notional level ENTRY LEVEL N

LEVEL 1 N

LEVEL 2 %

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4 %

TOTAL

Agriculture, Horticulture and Animal Care Arts, Media and Publishing Business, Administration and Law Construction, Planning and the Built Environment Education and Training Engineering and Manufacturing Technologies Health, Public Services and Care Information and Communication Technology Languages, Literature and Culture Leisure, Travel and Tourism Retail and Commercial Enterprise Science and Mathematics Social Sciences History, Philosophy and Theology

0 40 30 80 0 170 140 90 60 30 190 0 0 20

0% 5% 3% 10% 0% 20% 16% 11% 7% 3% 23% 0% 0% 2%

650 480 540 1,530 0 1,070 3,920 290 90 1,070 1,450 50 0 3,460

4% 3% 4% 11% 0% 7% 27% 2% 1% 7% 10% 0% 0% 24%

430 1,540 1,080 750 50 1,410 2,140 700 2,050 2,210 2,470 3,020 150 3,480

2% 7% 5% 4% 0% 7% 10% 3% 10% 10% 12% 14% 1% 16%

460 14,540 8,950 390 0 1,230 5,760 4,210 8,530 4,490 760 23,130 6,970 4,530

1% 17% 11% 1% 0% 2% 7% 5% 10% 5% 1% 28% 8% 5%

0 10 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0% 33% 67% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

1,540 16,610 10,620 2,750 60 3,880 11,960 5,280 10,720 7,790 4,880 26,190 7,120 11,480

1% 14% 9% 2% 0% 3% 10% 4% 9% 6% 4% 22% 6% 10%

Total (with SSA only)

850

100%

14,590

100%

21,460

100%

83,960

100%

120,890

100%

Table 17: SSF learning aims by SSA and learning aim notional level LEVEL 1 N

LEVEL 2 %

LEVEL 3 %

TOTAL %

Agriculture, Horticulture and Animal Care Arts, Media and Publishing Business, Administration and Law Construction, Planning and the Built Environment Engineering and Manufacturing Technologies Health, Public Services and Care History, Philosophy and Theology Information and Communication Technology Languages, Literature and Culture Leisure, Travel and Tourism Retail and Commercial Enterprise Science and Mathematics Social Sciences

0 0 10 10 0 0 410 20 0 0 30 0 0

0% 0% 2% 3% 0% 0% 84% 4% 0% 0% 7% 0% 0%

0 10 20 20 70 50 240 10 290 70 50 350 0

0% 1% 2% 2% 6% 4% 20% 1% 25% 6% 4% 30% 0%

0 2,150 1,390 20 460 510 2,280 1,020 3,050 990 50 9,410 2,950

0% 9% 6% 0% 2% 2% 9% 4% 13% 4% 0% 39% 12%

0 2,170 1,420 50 530 550 2,930 1,060 3,330 1,060 130 9,760 2,950

0% 8% 6% 0% 2% 2% 11% 4% 13% 4% 1% 38% 11%

Total (with SSA only)

490

100%

1,180

100%

24,290

100%

25,950

100%

Yellow shading: Top 3 sector subject area for that level.

New Economy

032

4.12 The preparation for life and work SSA accounts for over a fifth (22%) of all aims and is summarised below. The bulk of provision is full-time Level 1 or below provision in FE, which accounts for 58% of the total. Table 18: Preparation for life and work breakdown - 16-19 FE FULL-TIME

PART-TIME

NOT APP

FE TOTAL

Entry Level

16,180

4,790

21,060

21,130

Level 1

17,400

3,990

21,430

150

21,580

Level 2

6,320

420

6,740

6,790

Level 3

5,270

5,300

3,390

8,690

45,210

9,220

Other Level Total

SSF

TOTAL

130 54,570 3,650 58,220 Source: Education Funding Agency (2012)

Table 19: FE learners resident in GM by provider and highest level undertaking (top 20) â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 16-19, 2011/12 ENTRY

UNKNOWN

TOTAL

Salford City College

170

700

770

3,840

5,490

The Manchester College

240

1,220

1,450

2,220

5,130

200

690

3,040

4,010

Bury College Trafford College

210

240

820

1,630

2,900

Wigan And Leigh College

440

860

1,510

2,880

The Oldham College

480

770

1,150

2,520

120

410

790

1,070

2,380

2,290

2,350

Stockport College Of FE and HE

110

320

880

990

2,310

Tameside College

120

550

680

930

2,290

Loreto College

2,040

2,160

Bolton College

240

640

610

620

2,110

160

1,740

1,930

Ashton Sixth Form College

110

1,820

1,930

Holy Cross College

1,870

Xaverian College

1,780

1,870

Aquinas College

1,720

1,750

Bolton Sixth Form College

150

1,580

1,740

Winstanley College

1,140

150

580

190

150

1,060

1,760

7,310

9,660

36,270

690

55,710

Hopwood Hall College Oldham Sixth Form College

Cheadle And Marple Sixth Form College

Economic Solutions Limited Total FE Learners

Source: Education Funding Agency (2012)

4.13 In SSFs 69% of learners study at the top 20 providers; 42% learn at the top 10. Again the overwhelming majority SSF learners are at notional level 3. Table 20: SSF learners by provider and learner notional level (top 20) â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 16-19, 2011/12 ENTRY

TOTAL

Turton High School Media Arts College

390

Sale Grammar School

350

Parrs Wood High School

340

Thornleigh Salesian College

330

St Mary's Catholic High School

310

320

The Blue Coat CofE School

310

The Crompton House Church of England Academy

310

Canon Slade CofE School

300

Urmston Grammar Academy

290

Altrincham Grammar School for Girls

280

Altrincham Grammar School for Boys

280

Rivington and Blackrod High School

270

Audenshaw School Academy Trust

240

Loreto Grammar School

230

Whalley Range 11-18 High School and Business and Enterprise College

180

220

The King David High School

210

St Ambrose College

180

The Deanery Church of England High School and Sixth Form College

170

William Hulme's Grammar School

160

Stretford Grammar School

150

200

7,500

7,750

Total Learners

Source: Education Funding Agency (2012)

16-18 Apprenticeships 4.14 In terms of youth apprenticeship provision in GM, there were 9,970 starts in 2010/11, three quarters (76.6%) of which were at Intermediate level (Level 2), with 23.3% at Advanced (Level 3) and less than 0.2% at Higher level (Level 4). 4.15 Intermediate level Apprenticeships were concentrated in Active Leisure, Learning & Well-being (16.5%), Business Administration and Governance (15.8%) and Customer Service and Contact Centre (13.2%) sector leads. 4.16 Advanced level Apprenticeships were concentrated under Business IT and Telecommunication (14.2%), Customer Service & Contact Centre (12.1%) and Business Administration & Governance (9.5%). 4.17 Higher level apprenticeships were Accountancy & Financial Services.

New Economy

almost

exclusively under

Finance,

034

Table 21: Youth Apprenticeship Starts by Sector Lead - % of Level 2010 / 2011 INTERMEDIAT E

ADVANCE D

HIGHE R

TOTA L

16.5%

6.0%

0.0%

14.0%

Adult Social Care

1.3%

3.0%

0.0%

1.8%

Adult Social Care/Healthcare

3.4%

0.9%

0.0%

2.9%

Automotive Industries

5.0%

5.2%

0.0%

5.1%

Building Services Engineering

1.6%

8.2%

0.0%

3.1%

Business Information Technology & Telecommunication

0.9%

14.2%

0.0%

4.0%

15.8%

9.5%

0.0%

14.2%

Chemicals, Life sciences, Pharmaceuticals, etc.

0.0%

Children & Young People

5.0%

8.6%

0.0%

5.8%

Construction

6.2%

4.3%

0.0%

5.7%

Creative & Cultural

0.0%

0.4%

0.0%

0.1%

Creative Media

0.0%

0.4%

0.0%

0.1%

13.7%

12.1%

0.0%

13.3%

Energy & Utility

0.3%

1.3%

0.0%

0.5%

Engineering Construction Industry Facilities Management, Housing, Property, Planning & Cleaning

0.0%

0.4%

0.0%

0.1%

0.4%

0.9%

0.0%

0.5%

Fashion & Textiles

0.0%

Finance, Accountancy & Financial Services

1.4%

3.0%

100.0%

1.9%

Food & Drink

0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

Freight Logistics & Wholesale

1.0%

0.0%

0.8%

Hair & Beauty

7.3%

0.0%

7.3%

Health & Safety

0.0%

Healthcare

0.0%

2.6%

0.0%

0.6%

Hospitality, Leisure, Travel & Tourism

4.5%

0.9%

0.0%

3.6%

Industrial Relations

0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

Justice & Community Safety

0.0%

Land-Based & Environmental Industries

0.9%

0.4%

0.0%

0.8%

Lifelong Learning

0.0%

Management & Leadership (including HR & Recruitment)

0.1%

0.4%

0.0%

0.1%

Maritime

0.0%

Marketing & Sales

0.3%

0.0%

0.2%

Not App/ Known

0.0%

Passenger Transport

6.5%

0.0%

5.0%

Process & Manufacturing

0.5%

0.4%

0.0%

0.5%

Retail

2.5%

1.3%

0.0%

2.1%

Science, Engineering & Manufacturing Technologies

3.5%

9.1%

0.0%

4.8%

Security Industry

0.7%

0.0%

0.5%

Supporting Teaching & Learning in Schools

0.4%

0.0%

100.0%

0.3% 100.0 %

Active Leisure, Learning & Well-being

Business, Administration & Governance

Customer Service & Contact Centre

Grand Total

Source: Skills Funding Agency (2012)

New Economy

035

Table 22 Youth Apprenticeship Starts by Sector Lead - % of Sector Lead 2010 / 2011 INTERMEDIATE

ADVANCED

HIGHER

Active Leisure, Learning & Well-being

90.0%

10.0%

0.0%

100.0%

Adult Social Care

55.6%

38.9%

0.0%

100.0%

Adult Social Care/Healthcare

89.7%

6.9%

0.0%

100.0%

Automotive Industries

74.5%

23.5%

0.0%

100.0%

Building Services Engineering

38.7%

61.3%

0.0%

100.0%

Business Information Technology & Telecommunication

17.5%

82.5%

0.0%

100.0%

Business, Administration & Governance

85.2%

15.5%

0.0%

100.0%

Children & Young People

65.5%

34.5%

0.0%

100.0%

Construction

Chemicals, Life sciences, Pharmaceuticals, etc.

TOTAL

82.5%

17.5%

0.0%

100.0%

Creative & Cultural

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

Creative Media

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

Customer Service & Contact Centre

78.9%

21.1%

0.0%

100.0%

Energy & Utility

40.0%

60.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

60.0%

40.0%

0.0%

100.0%

57.9%

36.8%

10.5%

100.0%

Food & Drink

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

Freight Logistics & Wholesale

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

76.7%

23.3%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

Engineering Construction Industry Facilities Management, Housing, Property, Planning & Cleaning Fashion & Textiles Finance, Accountancy & Financial Services

Hair & Beauty Health & Safety Healthcare Hospitality, Leisure, Travel & Tourism Industrial Relations Justice & Community Safety Land-Based & Environmental Industries Lifelong Learning Management & Leadership (including HR & Recruitment) Maritime Marketing & Sales Not App/ Known

94.4%

5.6%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

87.5%

12.5%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

Process & Manufacturing

80.0%

20.0%

0.0%

100.0%

Retail

90.5%

14.3%

0.0%

100.0%

Science, Engineering & Manufacturing Technologies

56.3%

43.8%

0.0%

100.0%

Security Industry

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

Supporting Teaching & Learning in Schools

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

76.6%

23.3%

0.2%

100.0%

Passenger Transport

Grand Total

Source: Skills Funding Agency (2012)

New Economy

036

Skills Supply: Adult SFA-Funded Provision 4.18 In total there were 234,000 adult (19 years and older) starts in GM in 2010/11, 96,100 (41%) of which were aged between 19 and 30, with a further 96,070 (41%) aged between 31 and 49, leaving 41,870 (18%) older than 50. 4.19 A significant proportion of provision (39% or 89,760 starts) is classified as being at level “other”. Of the “other” starts, 62% were “Non-externally-certificated nonFE other provision”. Together with “Generic code to identify ILR programme aims”, “Tailored pre-employment training”, “Tutorial and enrichment studies” and “Co-financed ESF provision not leading to a recognised qualification or other learning aim on the learning aim database”, this makes up 93% of the “Other” group. 4.20 Discounting “other”, 51% of starts were at Level 1 or below, 38% were at Level 2 and 10% were at Level 3. Just 1% of starts were at Level 4 or higher. Table 23: Starts by age and level – 2010/11 - % of Level ENTRY 1 & ENTRY 2 3 4+ OTHER TOTAL 19-24 22% 27% 23% 34% 16% 21% 23% 25-30 22% 20% 19% 19% 19% 14% 18% 31-49 45% 41% 45% 40% 54% 37% 41% 50-64 9% 9% 12% 7% 11% 18% 13% 65+ 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% 10% 5% All Adults 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Source: Skills Funding Agency (2012) Table 24: Starts by age and level – 2010/11 - % of age group ENTRY 1 & ENTRY 2 3 4+ OTHER TOTAL 19-24 15% 17% 23% 9% 0% 35% 100% 25-30 21% 18% 25% 6% 1% 30% 100% 31-49 18% 15% 26% 6% 1% 35% 100% 50-64 10% 11% 22% 3% 0% 53% 100% 65+ 6% 7% 4% 0% 0% 83% 100% All Adults 16% 15% 24% 6% 1% 38% 100% Source: Skills Funding Agency (2012)

4.21 There are 614 providers delivering education and training to GM adult residents funded by the SFA, however more than half (58%) of starts were in the biggest ten providers, and more than three quarters (78%) were in the top 20, listed in Table 25 below. The vast majority of providers had very few starts: 475 providers had fewer than 100 starts while 269 had ten or fewer starts. Table 25: Starts for GM resident learners by level and provider (top 20) 2010/11 % of provision at that level The Manchester College Manchester City Council Salford City College Oldham MBC Bolton MBC LearnDirect Limited

New Economy

ENTRY

1 & ENTRY

21.6% 12.2% 7.0% 9.9% 5.6% 3.2%

28.8% 4.0% 6.2% 2.7% 0.7% 12.0%

14.8% 1.6% 4.8% 1.0% 0.0% 11.5%

18.9% 0.1% 8.8% 0.4% 0.1% 1.1%

22.8% 0.0% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

OTHER

TOTAL

4.2% 13.8% 4.9% 8.7% 11.6% 0.6%

14.3% 8.2% 5.7% 5.6% 5.5% 5.4%

037

Wigan And Leigh College Hopwood Hall College The Oldham College Workers' Educational Association Bolton College Bury Metropolitan Borough Council Tameside College Trafford College Stockport College Of FE and HE Stockport Metropolitan Borough Council Bury College Wigan MBC Economic Solutions Limited Salford City Council Grand Total

4.5% 3.3% 3.0% 4.5% 4.8% 1.9% 1.3% 1.3% 2.3% 2.2% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1%

2.8% 2.3% 2.9% 7.8% 4.2% 1.3% 2.4% 1.4% 2.2% 1.1% 3.1% 1.4% 0.2%

4.6% 4.6% 3.5% 0.8% 2.3% 1.1% 3.6% 2.6% 2.7% 0.6% 2.5% 0.0% 2.2%

5.2% 3.5% 4.7% 1.4% 3.5% 0.4% 6.9% 5.7% 4.6% 0.2% 4.2% 0.0% 2.6%

10.6% 2.4% 6.5% 0.0% 1.6% 0.0% 8.9% 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 4.9% 0.0% 0.8%

4.7% 2.6% 2.4% 1.4% 1.1% 4.1% 0.7% 2.0% 1.4% 3.8% 1.5% 3.5% 1.5%

4.4% 3.2% 3.0% 2.8% 2.6% 2.4% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 1.6% 1.3%

1.3%

1.4%

0.1%

0.0%

0.9%

0.8%

100.0%

Source: Skills Funding Agency (2012) Table 26: Starts for GM resident learners by level and provider (top 20) 2010/11 - % of providerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s provision ENTRY

1 & ENTRY

The Manchester College Manchester City Council Salford City College Oldham Metropolitan Borough Council Bolton Metropolitan Borough Council LearnDirect Limited Wigan And Leigh College Hopwood Hall College The Oldham College Workers' Educational Association Bolton College Bury Metropolitan Borough Council Tameside College Trafford College Stockport College Of FE and HE Stockport Metropolitan Borough Council Bury College Wigan Metropolitan Borough Council Economic Solutions Limited

24.6% 24.0% 20.1% 28.5% 16.5% 9.7% 16.6% 16.6% 16.2% 26.7% 30.0% 13.1% 9.9% 10.0% 17.1% 16.6% 6.8% 5.2% 1.3%

30.8% 7.4% 16.6% 7.2% 1.9% 34.1% 9.6% 11.1% 14.8% 43.4% 24.8% 8.2% 16.6% 9.8% 15.7% 7.8% 23.0% 13.3% 2.3%

OTHER

TOTAL

24.5% 4.6% 19.8% 4.3% 0.1% 50.5% 24.6% 34.2% 27.4% 7.1% 20.5% 11.1% 39.0% 28.4% 29.6% 6.2% 29.0% 0.0% 39.0%

8.0% 0.1% 9.3% 0.5% 0.1% 1.2% 7.1% 6.7% 9.5% 3.1% 8.2% 1.1% 19.1% 15.7% 12.7% 0.6% 12.4% 0.0% 12.1%

0.8% 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 0.4% 1.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 2.1% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.3%

11.3% 64.0% 33.1% 59.7% 81.4% 4.5% 40.8% 30.8% 30.9% 19.8% 16.3% 66.6% 13.1% 35.4% 24.1% 68.8% 27.6% 81.5% 44.9%

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Salford City Council

26.5%

Grand Total

16.3%

27.0%

2.1%

1.1%

0.0%

43.4%

100.0%

15.3%

23.5%

6.0%

0.5%

38.4%

100.0%

Source: Skills Funding Agency (2012)

Adult SFA-Funded Supply by Sector 4.22 Table 27-30 present adult SFA funded provision start data by sector broken down by level and stream. A significant proportion of SFA funded adult provision does not map directly to a sector, as either the sector is unknown or the qualification is of a general preparatory (e.g. general employability skills) or academic nature, and although figures are presented in the tables they are not analysed below. 4.23 Of those that do relate to sectors (albeit imperfectly via their Sector Lead bodies), the largest were Business IT & Telecommunications, with 8.4% of starts, Construction with 7,3% of starts and Employability with 6.2% of starts.

New Economy

038

4.24 Broken down by level the concentrations of provision are as follows: 

At Entry Level, most starts were in Employability (67.8%) and Business Administration and Governance (12.0%)



At Level 1 & Entry most starts were in Business IT and Telecommunication (23.7%) and Employability (21.4%)



At Level 2 there were high numbers of starts in Construction (11.4%) and Business IT and Telecommunication (9.7%)



Al Level 3 the highest numbers of starts were in Lifelong Learning (10.8%) and Hair and Beauty (7.5%)



At Level 4 the most starts were in Lifelong Learning (31.9%) and Finance, Accountancy and Financial Services (24.8%)

4.25 Broken down by funding stream the concentrations are as follows: 

The highest concentration of FE starts was in Employability with 16.1% of starts, followed by Business IT and Telecommunications with 9.5% of starts.



The highest number of Train to Gain starts was in Construction with 15.1% of starts followed by Passenger Transport with 11.8% of starts.



Apprenticeships were concentrated in Business Administration and Governance with 13.4% of starts, Customer Service and Contact Centre with 12.9% of starts and Retail with 11.7% of starts.



Other Employer Based Training was heavily concentrated in the Freight, Logistics and Wholesale sector, with 24.9% of starts and the Security Industry with 24.3% of starts.



The most starts in Adult Safeguarded Learning were in Employability (32.3%) and Business IT and Telecommunication (26.2%).



University for Industry was overwhelmingly concentrated in the Business IT and Telecommunications sector with 89.4% of starts.



ESF funded starts were focused in the Business IT and Telecommunications (20.1%) Freight Logistics and Wholesale (12.2%) and Construction (11.1%) sectors.

New Economy

039

Table 27: Starts by sector and level, GM adult residents â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 2010/11 - % of Level (excl unknown) Active Leisure, Learning & Well-being Adult Social Care Adult Social Care/Healthcare Automotive Industries Building Services Engineering Business IT & Telecommunication Business, Administration & Governance Central Government including Armed forces Chemicals, Life sciences, Pharmaceutical etc. Children & Young People Construction Creative & Cultural Creative Media Customer Service & Contact Centre Employability Energy & Utility Engineering Construction Industry Enterprise & Small Business Facilities Management, Housing, Propertyâ&#x20AC;Ś Fashion & Textiles Finance, Accountancy & Financial Services Food & Drink Freight Logistics & Wholesale Hair & Beauty Health & Safety Healthcare Hospitality, Leisure, Travel & Tourism Industrial Relations Justice & Community Safety Land-Based & Environmental Industries Languages & Intercultural Working Lifelong Learning Management & Leadership Maritime Marketing & Sales Parking Passenger Transport Process & Manufacturing Purchasing & Supply Retail Science, Engineering & Manufacturing Tech Security Industry Supporting Teaching & Learning in Schools Voluntary Sector Not sector specific* Total

ENTRY

1 & ENTRY

OTHER

TOTAL

0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 0.6% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 67.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 3.1% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 90.6%

3.7% 1.1% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 23.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.1% 1.9% 6.1% 2.7% 1.7% 2.1% 21.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 2.7% 0.4% 5.1% 1.4% 4.5% 2.6% 1.2% 3.1% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.7% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 77.4%

4.5% 4.3% 3.4% 0.6% 2.1% 9.7% 3.0% 0.1% 0.2% 1.5% 11.4% 0.8% 0.5% 4.7% 2.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.1% 6.1% 0.1% 1.7% 1.3% 5.4% 3.6% 0.5% 3.3% 3.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.7% 1.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 9.1% 0.8% 0.0% 1.8% 3.7% 3.2% 3.5% 0.0% 35.4%

2.9% 5.6% 6.5% 2.8% 5.6% 3.8% 5.0% 0.2% 0.0% 6.5% 6.1% 3.9% 1.7% 2.3% 0.0% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 4.3% 0.2% 1.7% 7.5% 0.2% 4.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.7% 0.8% 0.1% 10.8% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.4% 3.3% 0.0% 5.5% 0.1% 24.4%

0.0% 6.2% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 5.3% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 24.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% 0.0% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 31.9% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.1%

4.7% 4.7% 9.5% 1.6% 1.9% 2.4% 12.7% 0.0% 0.1% 4.1% 2.5% 0.1% 0.1% 12.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 2.4% 0.6% 2.7% 1.9% 0.0% 1.0% 5.9% 0.3% 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.1% 7.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.9% 1.0% 0.0% 11.6% 1.8% 2.0% 1.4% 0.0% 78.4%

4.0% 4.1% 4.8% 1.2% 2.2% 8.4% 5.9% 0.1% 0.1% 2.9% 7.3% 1.2% 0.7% 5.7% 6.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% 3.3% 0.1% 2.8% 0.9% 3.8% 3.4% 0.4% 2.7% 3.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% 0.3% 2.3% 3.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 4.4% 1.0% 0.0% 3.8% 2.7% 1.9% 2.7% 0.0% 66.5%

100.0%

Source: Skills Funding Agency (2012) *% of total Yellow shading: Top sectors for provision in each skill level

New Economy

040

Table 28: Starts by sector and level, GM adult residents â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 2010/11 - % of Sector ENTRY Active Leisure, Learning & Well-being Adult Social Care Adult Social Care/Healthcare Automotive Industries Building Services Engineering Business IT & Telecommunication Business, Administration & Governance Central Government including Armed forces Chemicals, Life sciences, Pharmaceutical etc. Children & Young People Construction Creative & Cultural Creative Media Customer Service & Contact Centre Employability Energy & Utility Engineering Construction Industry Enterprise & Small Business Facilities Management, Housing, Propertyâ&#x20AC;Ś Fashion & Textiles Finance, Accountancy & Financial Services Food & Drink Freight Logistics & Wholesale Hair & Beauty Health & Safety Healthcare Hospitality, Leisure, Travel & Tourism Industrial Relations Justice & Community Safety Land-Based & Environmental Industries Languages & Intercultural Working Lifelong Learning Management & Leadership Maritime Marketing & Sales Parking Passenger Transport Process & Manufacturing Purchasing & Supply Retail Science, Engineering & Manufacturing Tech Security Industry Supporting Teaching & Learning in Schools Voluntary Sector Not sector specific Total

1& ENTRY

OTHER

9.6% 2.8% 0.0% 11.8% 0.0% 29.2% 3.0%

51.0% 47.8% 31.9% 22.6% 43.9% 52.8% 23.1%

9.9% 18.6% 18.5% 32.3% 35.1% 6.3% 11.4%

0.0% 2.2% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%

29.2% 28.3% 48.5% 33.3% 21.1% 7.0% 52.9%

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

0.0%

50.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0% 1.8% 0.3% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 49.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.7%

12.5% 6.6% 8.5% 22.7% 26.9% 3.8% 35.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.7%

87.5% 22.8% 70.3% 27.8% 36.5% 37.6% 15.0% 60.4% 0.0% 66.7%

0.0% 30.7% 11.3% 43.3% 34.6% 5.6% 0.0% 25.0% 100.0% 0.0%

0.0% 3.1% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

12.5% 35.1% 8.5% 1.0% 1.9% 53.0% 0.0% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0%

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

0.0% 0.0%

8.5% 30.0%

83.4% 50.0%

1.5% 20.0%

0.0% 0.0%

6.9% 0.0%

100.0% 100.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 15.3% 37.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

18.4% 15.7% 12.1% 7.8% 31.3% 11.8% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 15.3% 55.6% 0.6% 0.0% 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 26.6% 2.0%

26.5% 65.7% 64.3% 47.4% 59.4% 55.2% 45.3% 0.0% 36.4% 27.8% 7.4% 13.4% 19.8% 0.0% 37.5% 100.0% 94.5% 38.0% 21.7%

20.6% 2.9% 6.1% 29.9% 6.3% 20.3% 3.6% 0.0% 63.6% 12.5% 3.7% 64.8% 17.3% 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 10.1% 1.3%

12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.1% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

21.1% 15.7% 17.5% 13.8% 0.0% 9.4% 41.6% 100.0% 0.0% 29.2% 0.0% 1.1% 58.1% 0.0% 62.5% 0.0% 5.0% 24.1% 75.0%

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

0.0% 0.0%

5.2% 0.0%

61.9% 74.3%

16.7% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0%

16.2% 25.7%

100.0% 100.0%

0.0% 0.0% 22.2%

0.0% 50.0% 17.8%

58.9% 0.0% 12.5%

28.2% 50.0% 2.2%

0.0% 0.0% 0.1%

12.9% 0.0% 45.2%

100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

16.3%

15.3%

23.5%

6.0%

0.5%

38.4%

100.0%

Source: Skills Funding Agency (2012)

New Economy

TOTAL

0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.7% 9.3%

041

FURTHER EDUCATION

TRAIN TO GAIN

APPRENTICESHIPS

OTHER EMPLOYERBASED TRAINING

ADULT SAFEGUARDED LEARNING

UNIVERSITY FOR INDUSTRY

EUROPEAN SOCIAL FUND (ER)

TOTAL

Table 29: Starts by sector and stream, GM adult residents – 2010/11 % of stream

Active Leisure, Learning & Well-being

2.9%

5.4%

5.0%

0.0%

4.0%

Adult Social Care

3.1%

5.1%

4.4%

8.3%

1.5%

2.2%

1.6%

4.1%

Adult Social Care/Healthcare

0.4%

6.6%

10.0%

1.2%

0.0%

2.6%

1.6%

4.8%

Automotive Industries

1.3%

1.0%

1.7%

0.0%

1.2%

Building Services Engineering

4.1%

0.9%

2.0%

0.6%

0.0%

2.2%

Business IT & Telecommunication

9.5%

2.3%

1.9%

3.6%

26.2%

89.4%

20.1%

8.4%

Business, Administration & Governance

4.5%

3.4%

13.4%

0.6%

0.0%

1.1%

3.2%

5.9%

Central Government inc. Armed forces

0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

Chemicals, Life sciences, Pharma…

0.0%

0.2%

0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

Children & Young People

1.9%

3.0%

4.4%

1.2%

15.4%

0.4%

2.1%

2.9%

Construction

4.4%

15.1%

2.0%

1.2%

0.0%

0.4%

11.1%

7.3%

Creative & Cultural

3.5%

0.0%

0.1%

0.0%

1.2%

Creative Media

1.9%

0.0%

0.1%

0.0%

0.7%

Customer Service & Contact Centre

0.5%

6.9%

12.9%

0.6%

0.0%

0.4%

7.4%

5.7%

Employability

16.1%

0.0%

11.2%

32.3%

0.7%

7.9%

6.2%

Energy & Utility

0.3%

1.3%

0.3%

0.0%

0.6%

Engineering Construction Industry

0.0%

Enterprise & Small Business

0.2%

0.0%

0.1%

Facilities Management, Housing…

3.3%

5.3%

1.0%

3.6%

0.0%

5.3%

3.3%

Fashion & Textiles

0.3%

0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

Finance, Accountancy & Financial Services

6.5%

0.0%

2.6%

0.0%

0.5%

2.8%

Food & Drink

0.4%

1.6%

0.6%

0.0%

1.5%

0.0%

3.2%

0.9%

Freight Logistics & Wholesale

0.0%

7.5%

1.7%

24.9%

0.0%

1.1%

12.2%

3.8%

Hair & Beauty

8.3%

0.3%

2.0%

0.0%

3.4%

Health & Safety

1.2%

0.0%

0.4%

Healthcare

6.8%

0.2%

0.9%

1.8%

9.2%

0.0%

0.5%

2.7%

Hospitality, Leisure, Travel & Tourism

2.9%

2.6%

6.0%

5.9%

9.2%

0.0%

0.5%

3.5%

Industrial Relations

0.0%

0.3%

0.0%

0.1%

Justice & Community Safety

0.2%

0.0%

0.1%

Land-Based & Environmental Industries

1.7%

0.2%

1.1%

0.0%

1.5%

0.0%

0.5%

0.9%

Languages & Intercultural Working

1.0%

0.0%

0.3%

Lifelong Learning

5.0%

1.1%

0.1%

0.6%

1.5%

0.0%

6.9%

2.3%

Management & Leadership

0.8%

2.9%

7.9%

0.0%

1.1%

3.2%

Maritime

0.1%

0.0%

Marketing & Sales

0.0%

0.1%

0.3%

0.0%

0.1%

Parking

0.0%

Passenger Transport

0.3%

11.8%

0.9%

0.0%

3.2%

4.4%

Process & Manufacturing

1.0%

0.8%

1.0%

3.6%

0.0%

2.1%

1.0%

Purchasing & Supply

0.0%

Retail

0.1%

2.6%

11.7%

7.1%

0.0%

0.5%

3.8%

Science, Engineering & Manufacturing Tech

2.1%

4.4%

1.9%

0.0%

1.1%

2.7%

Security Industry

0.0%

3.2%

0.6%

24.3%

1.5%

0.0%

6.3%

1.9%

Supporting Teaching & Learning in Schools

2.9%

3.7%

1.5%

0.0%

1.1%

2.7%

Voluntary Sector

0.1%

0.0%

71.0%

16.4%

0.0%

77.1%

99.0%

76.4%

79.5%

66.5%

100.0%

Not sector specific Grand Total

Source: Skills Funding Agency (2012)

New Economy

042

FURTHER EDUCATION

TRAIN TO GAIN

APPRENTICESHIPS

OTHER EMPLOYERBASED TRAINING

ADULT SAFEGUARDED LEARNING

UNIVERSITY FOR INDUSTRY

EUROPEAN SOCIAL FUND (ER)

TOTAL

Table 30: Starts by sector and stream, GM adult residents – 2010/11 - % of sector

Active Leisure, Learning & Well-being

25.3%

45.8%

29.2%

0.0%

100.0%

Adult Social Care

26.1%

41.3%

25.2%

4.3%

0.3%

1.9%

0.9%

100.0%

2.6%

45.9%

48.5%

0.5%

0.0%

1.8%

0.8%

100.0%

Automotive Industries

38.7%

28.0%

33.3%

0.0%

100.0%

Building Services Engineering

64.9%

13.5%

21.1%

0.6%

0.0%

100.0%

Business IT & Telecommunication

38.9%

9.3%

5.2%

0.9%

2.6%

37.3%

5.8%

100.0%

Business, Administration & Governance

26.1%

19.2%

52.9%

0.2%

0.0%

0.6%

1.3%

100.0%

Central Government inc. Armed forces

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

Chemicals, Life sciences, Pharma…

12.5%

75.0%

12.5%

0.0%

100.0%

Children & Young People

22.8%

35.1%

0.9%

4.4%

0.4%

1.8%

100.0%

Construction

20.7%

68.9%

6.4%

0.3%

0.0%

0.2%

3.7%

100.0%

Creative & Cultural

97.9%

0.0%

1.0%

0.0%

100.0%

Creative Media

98.1%

0.0%

1.9%

0.0%

100.0%

3.1%

40.3%

53.0%

0.2%

0.0%

0.2%

3.1%

100.0%

Adult Social Care/Healthcare

Customer Service & Contact Centre Employability

88.5%

0.0%

3.9%

4.3%

0.4%

3.1%

100.0%

Energy & Utility

14.6%

72.9%

12.5%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

Facilities Management, Housing…

34.0%

53.7%

6.9%

2.3%

0.0%

3.9%

100.0%

Fashion & Textiles

70.0%

30.0%

0.0%

100.0%

Finance, Accountancy & Financial Services

78.0%

0.0%

21.1%

0.0%

0.4%

100.0%

Food & Drink

14.3%

60.0%

15.7%

0.0%

1.4%

0.0%

8.6%

100.0%

Engineering Construction Industry Enterprise & Small Business

Freight Logistics & Wholesale

0.0%

66.3%

10.8%

14.1%

0.0%

1.0%

7.7%

100.0%

83.2%

3.0%

13.8%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

Healthcare

85.8%

1.9%

7.5%

1.4%

2.8%

0.0%

0.5%

100.0%

Hospitality, Leisure, Travel & Tourism

28.5%

25.2%

40.1%

3.6%

2.2%

0.0%

0.4%

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

Justice & Community Safety

54.5%

45.5%

0.0%

100.0%

Land-Based & Environmental Industries

62.5%

6.9%

29.2%

0.0%

1.4%

0.0%

1.4%

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

74.3%

16.2%

1.1%

0.6%

0.0%

7.3%

100.0%

8.5%

31.0%

58.1%

0.0%

1.2%

0.8%

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

12.5%

37.5%

62.5%

0.0%

100.0%

Parking

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

Passenger Transport

2.6%

90.7%

5.0%

0.0%

1.7%

100.0%

35.4%

27.8%

24.1%

7.6%

0.0%

5.1%

100.0%

Hair & Beauty Health & Safety

Industrial Relations

Languages & Intercultural Working Lifelong Learning Management & Leadership Maritime Marketing & Sales

Process & Manufacturing Purchasing & Supply

1.3%

22.7%

71.7%

4.0%

0.0%

0.3%

100.0%

27.1%

54.8%

16.2%

0.0%

1.0%

100.0%

0.7%

55.9%

7.2%

27.0%

0.7%

0.0%

7.9%

100.0%

37.8%

46.9%

12.9%

0.0%

1.4%

1.0%

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

Not sector specific

42.3%

3.3%

0.0%

3.7%

40.4%

5.7%

4.7%

100.0%

Grand Total

39.6%

13.4%

7.8%

3.2%

27.1%

5.0%

3.9%

100.0%

Retail Science, Engineering & Manufacturing Tech Security Industry Supporting Teaching & Learning in Schools Voluntary Sector

Source: Skills Funding Agency (2012)

New Economy

043

4.26 4.27 Table 31 and Table 32 provide details of adult Apprenticeship starts by level. The greatest number of starts was seen in Intermediate Level Apprenticeships (Level 2 equivalent) with 11,500 (63%). Advanced Level Apprenticeships (Level 3 equivalent) accounted for 37% of starts (6,700). Just 140 starts (less than 1%) were Higher Level Apprenticeships (Level 4 equivalent). 4.28 The highest number of adult Apprenticeship starts in total were seen in the Business Administration and Governance sector (13.4%), Customer Service and Contact Centre (12.9%) and Retail (11.7%) however these break down differently by level: 

Intermediate level Apprenticeships were concentrated in Retail (17.7%), Customer Service and Contact Centre (15.0%) and Business Administration and Governance (12.9%) sectors



Advanced Level Apprenticeships were concentrated in the Business Administration and Governance (14.5%), Adult Social Care/Healthcare (13.1%) and Management and Leadership (11.2%) sectors.



Higher Level Apprenticeships were overwhelmingly concentrated in the Finance, Accountancy and Financial Services sector with 96% of all adult Higher Level Apprenticeships.

Table 31 Adult Apprenticeship Starts in GM 2010/11 - % of Level INTERMEDIAT E

ADVANCE D

HIGHE R

Active Leisure, Learning & Well-being

5.8%

3.6%

0.0%

Adult Social Care

3.2%

6.7%

0.0%

4.4%

Adult Social Care/Healthcare

8.3%

13.1%

0.0%

10.0%

Automotive Industries

1.2%

2.5%

0.0%

1.7%

Building Services Engineering

0.9%

3.9%

0.0%

2.0%

Business Information Technology & Telecommunication

1.8%

1.9%

0.0%

1.9%

Business, Administration & Governance

TOTAL 5.0%

12.9%

14.5%

0.0%

13.4%

Chemicals, Life sciences, Pharmaceuticals, Nuclear, etc

0.0%

0.1%

Children & Young People

2.2%

8.4%

0.0%

4.4%

Construction

2.0%

2.1%

0.0%

2.0%

Creative & Cultural

0.0%

0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

Creative Media

0.0%

0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

15.0%

9.6%

0.0%

12.9%

Energy & Utility

0.2%

0.6%

0.0%

0.3%

Engineering Construction Industry Facilities Management, Housing, Property, Planning & Cleaning

0.0%

1.0%

0.9%

0.0%

1.0%

Finance, Accountancy & Financial Services

1.2%

2.8%

96.0%

2.6%

Food & Drink

0.9%

0.0%

0.6%

Freight Logistics & Wholesale

2.4%

0.6%

0.0%

1.7%

Hair & Beauty

1.3%

3.3%

0.0%

2.0%

Health & Safety

0.0%

Healthcare

0.3%

1.9%

0.0%

0.9%

Hospitality, Leisure, Travel & Tourism

7.6%

3.4%

0.0%

6.0%

Industrial Relations

0.2%

0.6%

0.0%

0.3%

Justice & Community Safety

0.0%

Customer Service & Contact Centre

New Economy

044

Land-Based & Environmental Industries

1.1%

1.3%

0.0%

1.1%

Lifelong Learning

0.0%

0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

Management & Leadership (including HR & Recruitment)

6.0%

11.2%

0.0%

7.9%

Marketing & Sales

0.4%

0.0%

0.3%

Not App/ Known

0.0%

Passenger Transport

1.4%

0.0%

0.9%

Process & Manufacturing

1.3%

0.6%

0.0%

1.0%

17.7%

1.6%

0.0%

11.7%

Science, Engineering & Manufacturing Technologies

2.1%

1.5%

0.0%

1.9%

Security Industry

1.0%

0.0%

0.6%

Supporting Teaching & Learning in Schools

0.8%

2.8%

0.0%

1.5%

100.0%

Retail

Grand Total

Source: Skills Funding Agency (2012) Table 32: Adult Apprenticeship Starts in GM 2010/11 - % of Sector INTERMEDIAT E

ADVANCE D

HIGHE R

TOTAL

Active Leisure, Learning & Well-being

73.6%

26.4%

0.0%

100.0%

Adult Social Care

45.7%

55.6%

0.0%

100.0%

Adult Social Care/Healthcare

51.6%

47.8%

0.0%

100.0%

Automotive Industries

45.2%

54.8%

0.0%

100.0%

Building Services Engineering

27.8%

72.2%

0.0%

100.0%

Business Information Technology & Telecommunication

61.8%

38.2%

0.0%

100.0%

Business, Administration & Governance

60.4%

39.6%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

Children & Young People

31.3%

70.0%

0.0%

100.0%

Construction

62.2%

37.8%

0.0%

100.0%

Creative & Cultural

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

Creative Media

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

Customer Service & Contact Centre

72.6%

27.0%

0.0%

100.0%

Energy & Utility

33.3%

Chemicals, Life sciences, Pharmaceuticals, Nuclear, etc

66.7%

0.0%

100.0%

Engineering Construction Industry Facilities Management, Housing, Property, Planning & Cleaning

66.7%

33.3%

0.0%

100.0%

Finance, Accountancy & Financial Services

29.8%

40.4%

29.8%

100.0%

Food & Drink

90.9%

0.0%

100.0%

Freight Logistics & Wholesale

87.5%

12.5%

0.0%

100.0%

Hair & Beauty

40.5%

59.5%

0.0%

100.0%

Healthcare

18.8%

81.3%

0.0%

100.0%

Hospitality, Leisure, Travel & Tourism

79.1%

20.9%

0.0%

100.0%

Industrial Relations

40.0%

80.0%

0.0%

100.0%

61.9%

42.9%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

50.0%

0.0%

100.0%

47.9%

52.1%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

Passenger Transport

94.1%

0.0%

100.0%

Process & Manufacturing

78.9%

21.1%

0.0%

100.0%

Retail

94.9%

5.1%

0.0%

100.0%

Science, Engineering & Manufacturing Technologies

70.6%

29.4%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

Supporting Teaching & Learning in Schools

33.3%

70.4%

0.0%

100.0%

Grand Total

62.7%

36.5%

0.8%

100.0%

Health & Safety

Justice & Community Safety Land-Based & Environmental Industries Lifelong Learning Management & Leadership (including HR & Recruitment) Marketing & Sales Not App/ Known

Security Industry

New Economy

045

Geographical Spread of SFA-Funded provision (all ages) 4.29 Controlling for working age ward population gives an idea as to the penetration of SFA-funded skills provision across GM. The highest “rates” of starts are seen Abram and Cheetham. The lowest rates were evident in the City Centre and Hale Central. By district Oldham had proportionally the highest level of starts and Trafford the lowest. Figure 17: FE and Apprenticeship starts in GM as a % of working age population – 2010/11

Source: Skills Funding Agency (2012)

4.30 Apprenticeship starts were most common, as a proportion of working age population, in Denton South, Hindley and Ince. They were less prevalent in wards such as Bowdon, the City Centre and Hale Centre. The local authorities with the highest proportional rate of Apprenticeship starts were Tameside and Wigan.

New Economy

046

Figure 18: Apprenticeship starts in GM as a % of working age population â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 2010/11

Source: Skills Funding Agency (2012)

4.31 Level 1 and Level 1 & Entry level courses were proportionally more prevalent in Abram, Cheetham and Colhurst. The lowest penetration was evident in Hale, City Centre and Bowdon. Manchester and Oldham had proportionally the most starts at this level. Figure 19: Level 1 and Level 1 & Entry starts in GM as a % of working age population â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 2010/11

Source: Skills Funding Agency (2012)

New Economy

047

4.32 Level 2 provision is most prevalent in Cheetham, Abram and Healey. Proportionally, the fewest starts were in the City Centre, Hale central and Bowdon. Taking the districts as a whole, Oldham, Manchester and Rochdale had proportionally the most starts. Figure 20: Level 2 skills starts in GM as a % of working age population â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 2010/11

Source: Skills Funding Agency (2012)

4.33 Level 3+ starts followed a somewhat different pattern however, with the highest rates in Marple North, Church and Orrell. The fewest starts per head of working age population were evident in the City Centre, Hale Barns and Hale Central. The relatively more affluent boroughs such as Bury and Stockport showed the highest rate of penetration at this level. Figure 21: Level 3 skills starts in GM â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 2010/11

Source: Skills Funding Agency (2012)

New Economy

048

Travel to Learn Patterns for SFA-Funded provision (all ages) 4.34 At Entry Level and Level 1 around a fifth (21.4%) of GM resident learners study outside the borough in which they live. Manchester stands out as the destination for most residents who travel in order to learn, with the largest numbers coming in from Salford, Trafford and Tameside – these individuals mainly study FE courses (95%) although there is some “other employer based learning” (3%). However, Manchester is also an exporter of learners, with Stockport standing out as being a net importer of learners from Manchester. Figure 22: Travel to learn – starts of residents in GM districts – Entry and Level 1 BURY BOLTON ROCHDALE

WIGAN

OLDHAM

MANCHESTER

SALFORD TAMESIDE

Row Lab Bolton Bury Manche Oldham Rochda

TRAFFORD

STOCKPORT Yellow shading: Net importer of learners. Brown shading: Net exporter of learners.

4.35 The propensity for residents to leave the borough in order to learn increases at Level 2, with almost a third (35%) choosing to do so. Although there are fewer than half as many learners studying at this level so the absolute numbers are smaller. As Figure 23 below shows, learners’ patterns of travel change somewhat at Level 2 as compared with Level 1 and Entry. Manchester retains its position as the largest importer of learners, but Salford, Trafford and Stockport also import more learners than they export. Notably (as at other levels) Bolton, Bury and Wigan do not interact with Manchester or indeed oneanother as much as the other districts, with those in the south of GM tending to both export and import more learners across boundaries.

New Economy

Row Lab Bolton Bury Manche Oldham Rochda Salford Stockpo Tamesid Trafford Wigan GM North W Not App Grand T

049

Figure 23: Travel to learn – starts of residents in GM districts – Level 2

Row Lab

BURY BOLTON ROCHDALE

WIGAN

OLDHAM

MANCHESTER

Bolton Bury Manche Oldham Rochda Salford Stockpo Tamesid Trafford Wigan Not App North W

SALFORD TAMESIDE

Row Lab Bolton Bury Manche Oldham Rochda

TRAFFORD

STOCKPORT Yellow shading: Net importer of learners. Brown shading: Net exporter of learners.

4.36 At Level 3 and above, just under a third (30%) of learners chose to travel outside their borough of residence to study. Manchester, Stockport, Salford and Bury were all net importers of learners at this level.

New Economy

050

Figure 24: Travel to learn – starts of residents in GM districts – Level 3+

Row Lab

BURY BOLTON ROCHDALE

WIGAN

OLDHAM

MANCHESTER

SALFORD TAMESIDE

Row Lab Bolton Bury Manche Oldham Rochda

TRAFFORD

STOCKPORT Yellow shading: Net importer of learners. Brown shading: Net exporter of learners.

Skills Supply from Higher Education 4.37 GM is home to five universities (the University of Manchester, Manchester Metropolitan University, University of Salford, University of Bolton and University of Huddersfield, Oldham campus) who collectively have more than 100,000 students and almost 30,000 graduates each year. 4.38 Manchester universities have relatively high success rates in terms of first job employment with 65% of undergraduates and up to 80% of postgraduates leavers achieving employment in 2009/10. If part-time work and study is included then graduate employability figures go up to 80-90%. Even though graduate unemployment is currently high it only amounts to 6-10% of the total graduate output. The average pay achieved by undergraduates was around £21,000. Postgraduates however achieved up to £30,000. 4.39 It is estimated that 58% of graduates from the five GM universities enter employment in the local area, equating to approximately 18,000 graduates from Manchester universities every year. However, the GMS pointed out that the city region loses a substantial proportion of its highly skilled and mobile young workers to London and the Southeast and, though retention rates for graduates are higher than other provincial city regions, they are still lower than the capital. 4.40 The broad areas of study of HE students in Greater Manchester are summarised in Table 33 below, which shows that the largest subject of study by

New Economy

Bolton Bury Manche Oldham Rochda Salford Stockpo Tamesid Trafford Wigan GM Not App North W Grand T

051

pupil numbers is Business and Administrative Studies, with 17,245 (16.1%) students in GM, followed by Subjects Allied to Medicine (covering subjects such as nursing, nutrition and medical technology) with 14,570 (13.6%) students, and Engineering and Technology with 10,650 (10.0%) of students. Table 33: All HE students of GM HE institutions by subject of study 2009/10 MANCHESTER

SALFORD

GM TOTAL

% OF TOTAL

Medicine & dentistry Subjects allied to medicine Biological sciences Veterinary science Agriculture & related subjects Physical sciences Mathematical sciences Computer science Engineering & technology Architecture, building & planning Social studies Law Business & administrative studies Mass comm & documentation Languages Historical & philosophical studies Creative arts & design Education Combined

BOLTON 0 1,510 880 0 0 5 80 335 1,600

MMU 0 2,470 3,030 0 200 1,115 255 1,400 2,855

3,660 5,595 2,685 0 25 3,055 1,335 1,125 4,725

0 4,995 1,045 0 15 535 30 965 1,470

3,660 14,570 7,640 0 240 4,710 1,700 3,825 10,650

3.40% 13.60% 7.10% 0.00% 0.20% 4.40% 1.60% 3.60% 10.00%

500 600 150

705 2,885 1,485

645 4,045 1,320

2,130 2,345 475

3,980 9,875 3,430

3.70% 9.20% 3.20%

1,330 100 140

7,790 500 1,275

5,135 100 2,915

2,990 860 1,015

17,245 1,560 5,345

16.10% 1.50% 5.00%

40 710 1,275

1,175 2,655 5,590

2,315 575 1,130

190 2,705 75

3,720 6,645 8,070

3.50% 6.20% 7.50%

135

140

0.10%

Total

9,250

35,520

40,400

21,830

107,000

100.00%

Source: HESA (2011)

4.41 A large proportion of the 30,000 students graduating each year choose to remain in the conurbation: Manchester’s high performing research and teaching institutions together with its growing creative, digital and media, financial and professional services, science and technology industries, make Manchester a good destination for graduates. The city region needs these graduates to ensure the workforce remains highly skilled and competent and continues to attract employers. 4.42 As Table 34 below shows the proportion of graduates entering a related sector varies extremely by the area of study: there is a noticeable pattern in terms of sector of entry six months after graduation and subject studied. Vocational courses such as medicine and dentistry as well as subjects allied to medicine have the largest proportion of graduates going into human health and social work sectors. By contrast however, students of arts and humanities subjects – in particular Law, Business and Administrative studies, Mass Communications and Documentation, Languages, Historical and Philosophical Studies and Creative Arts and Design all have large proportions going into wholesale and retail trade sectors, which clearly have little to do with the subject of study. 4.43 Three years after graduating, the picture doesn’t look particularly different. Most graduates from medicine & dentistry, as well as those who studied subjects allied to medicine work in the human health sector. Similarly, 74.3% of

New Economy

052

education graduates do indeed work in education three years after graduation. On the other hand, graduates from less vocationally oriented subjects, such as mass communications & documentation, business & administrative studies and creative arts & design have notable numbers of graduates in the wholesale & retail sector. 4.44 Note that the LMI Steering Group is in the process of developing its profile of HE LMI for GM, as it currently supplies, and meets demand, for high level qualifications that address the objectives and priorities of the Greater Manchester Strategy.

New Economy

053

WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE; REPAIR OF MOTOR VEHICLES AND MOTORCYCLES

TRANSPORT AND STORAGE

ACCOMMODATION AND FOOD SERVICE

INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION

FINANCIAL AND INSURANCE

REAL ESTATE

PROFESSIONAL, SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL

ADMINISTRATIVE AND SUPPORT SERVICE

PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION AND DEFENCE; COMPULSORY SOCIAL SECURITY

EDUCATION

HUMAN HEALTH AND SOCIAL WORK

ARTS, ENTERTAINMENT AND RECREATION

OTHER SERVICE

OTHER SECTORS

Medicine & dentistry Subjects allied to medicine Biological sciences Veterinary science Agriculture & related subjects Physical sciences Mathematical sciences Computer science Engineering & technology Architecture, building & planning Social studies Law Business & administrative studies Mass communications & documentation Languages Historical & philosophical studies Creative arts & design Education

CONSTRUCTION

Table 34 Destination of first degree leavers by area of study 6 months after graduating (% of graduates in subject)

0 0.1 0.6 0 0.4 1.3 0.8 0.9 7.9 23.9 0.5 0.9

0 10.8 16.8 0 15.2 17.3 13.1 16.8 12.6 9.2 13.3 20.2

0 0.2 1.2 0 0.4 1.4 1.9 1.6 2.7 1.2 1.1 1.4

0 1.4 7.4 1 7.2 7.9 4.8 3.8 4 4 5.2 6.8

0 0.3 2.1 0 0.8 4.2 7.1 32.1 7.2 1.2 2.9 3

0 0.8 4.7 0 2 6.5 22.6 8.3 2.9 2.6 9 10.3

0 0.2 0.7 0 4 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 8.9 1.1 1.7

0.1 1 5.3 92.9 13.6 13.5 17.3 7.7 16.8 29.9 8 19.8

0 0.9 5 1 4 4.7 4 3.8 2.7 3 4.9 6.8

0.5 1.9 4.8 1 2.4 5.3 2.9 3 5.7 5.4 14.6 6.9

0.2 2.6 18 2 7.6 10.8 10.9 7.4 3.3 2.2 9.9 5.9

99.1 76.5 18.4 1 4.4 5.6 3.1 3.3 1.9 1.9 21.3 8

0 1 8.3 1 7.2 4.3 3.3 2.1 2.9 2 2.3 2.5

0 0.5 1.7 0 3.6 1.9 1.5 1 0.7 0.7 2.2 1.7

0 1.7 4.8 1 27.6 14.3 5.4 6.8 27.8 3.8 3.3 3.5

1.4

20.3

2.2

8.1

11.6

14.3

7.8

3.5

5.3

4.5

3.7

1.1

8.9

0.7 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.1

24.1 17.5 18 24.5 4.5

1.3 1.2 1.4 0.8 0.3

9.4 7.6 8.4 9.4 1.7

19 8.2 5.6 7.5 0.6

5.3 5.9 7.1 2.3 0.9

0.8 1 1.2 0.5 0.2

10.3 9.3 8.5 12.9 0.5

5.4 7 6.5 3.8 4.1

2.1 4 5.1 1.6 7.2

6.4 20 15.1 10.6 65.7

4.3 6.4 7.5 4.2 11.1

5.4 4.3 6.1 14.7 1.5

1.2 2.4 4.3 1.3 0.6

3.8 4.4 3.8 4.9 0.7

Combined

1.4

6.5

1.4

2.4

3.8

1.2

12.7

28.1

2.6

7.7

- All subject areas

1.7

15.3

1.2

5.7

5.3

5.4

1.1

9.7

4.4

4.9

12.6

20.1

4.7

1.4

Top 5 Bottom 5

Source: HESA (2011)

WHOSALE AND RETAIL TRADE; REPAIR OF MOTOR VEHICLES AND MOTORCYCLES

ACCOMMODATION AND STORAGE

TRANSPORT, STORAGE AND COMMUNICATIONS

FINANCIAL AND INSURANCE

REAL ESTATE AND RESEARCH

PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION AND DEFENCE; COMPULSORY SOCIAL SECURITY

EDUCATION

HUMAN HEALTH AND SOCIAL WORK

OTHER SERVICES

Medicine & dentistry Subjects allied to medicine Biological sciences Veterinary science Agriculture & related subjects Physical sciences Mathematical sciences Computer science Engineering & technology Architecture, building & planning Social studies Law Business & administrative studies Mass communications & documentation Languages Historical & philosophical studies Creative arts & design Education

CONSTRUCTION

Table 35: Destination of first degree leavers by area of study 3 years after graduating (% of graduates in subject)

0.0% 0.0% 0.4% .. 2.7% 1.8% 0.9% 0.7% 6.4% 19.1% 0.5% 0.4% 1.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 1.0% 0.1%

0.0% 11.1% 4.3% .. 6.3% 4.2% 3.5% 7.5% 4.5% 2.9% 5.1% 3.3% 12.0% 9.2% 4.6% 6.6% 12.3% 1.6%

0.0% 0.3% 1.7% .. 3.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0.7% 0.9% 1.4% 1.2% 0.8% 4.0% 2.4% 1.0% 1.1% 2.5% 0.4%

0.0% 0.3% 1.8% .. 1.7% 2.7% 2.9% 4.4% 5.4% 2.0% 2.8% 1.4% 5.7% 3.0% 3.0% 1.9% 1.3% 0.6%

0.0% 0.8% 3.6% .. 0.9% 4.2% 22.2% 10.9% 3.0% 1.4% 10.1% 7.2% 13.0% 4.0% 4.6% 5.4% 2.2% 0.7%

0.4% 3.9% 13.2% .. 15.0% 30.0% 28.9% 40.5% 27.7% 49.6% 20.8% 58.0% 27.6% 20.4% 19.4% 18.5% 17.6% 2.9%

3.1% 4.1% 9.3% .. 8.0% 13.7% 5.5% 4.8% 6.5% 8.8% 19.9% 9.1% 6.4% 7.5% 8.3% 14.8% 3.1% 3.7%

2.0% 5.6% 26.8% .. 11.9% 14.6% 21.5% 11.7% 6.1% 3.0% 12.6% 6.7% 6.8% 12.9% 31.1% 22.2% 19.4% 74.3%

93.9% 69.4% 24.2% .. 12.7% 6.7% 4.4% 4.8% 1.6% 2.9% 17.2% 5.7% 5.5% 7.3% 8.1% 9.3% 5.8% 11.7%

0.5% 0.7% 8.1% .. 7.7% 4.8% 3.8% 4.6% 5.1% 3.3% 5.9% 3.9% 5.0% 19.3% 9.4% 13.4% 20.4% 2.8%

0.0%

9.3%

0.0%

2.3%

6.0%

19.1%

11.2%

23.6%

18.7%

6.6%

1.3%

7.0%

1.5%

2.6%

5.8%

21.8%

8.3%

16.5%

18.0%

7.4%

Combined All subject areas Top 5

Bottom 5

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5 IDENTIFYING MARKET FAILURES AND OPPORTUNITIES 5.1

The analysis presented in Chapter 3 suggests that to support GM’s growth aspirations there are five sectors that present the greatest opportunity –based on both current and future employment and GVA impact – and the greatest risk of supply not meeting demand, for GM’s skills system. These are:     

5.2

Financial and Professional Services; Health and Social Care; Education; Creative and digital industries; and Advanced Manufacturing.

There are also however important sectors in GM, which are large employers of local labour and have skills demand profiles suited to the population, and where there are also risks that supply does not meet demand, these are:   

Retail; Logistics (increasingly appropriating activity from the Retail sector); and Hospitality and tourism.

5.3

This chapter identifies known skills issues in broad and headline terms taken from the published literature as a precursor to more detailed exploration and interrogation in future research in consultation with providers, employers and other partners. This is done with reference to the Government’s recently released industrial strategy, outlined in the Industrial Strategy: UK Sector Analysis, which analyses the strength of the UK’s different sectors.11

5.4

It should be noted that, regardless of sector specific issues, there is a major pan-GM challenge in terms of meeting employers’ demand for the ‘soft skills’ needed for work, such as planning and organisation, customer handling and team working, as outlined earlier in the document.

Department for Business Innovation and Skills, Industrial Strategy: UK Sector Analysis, BIS:2012

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Financial & Professional Services 5.5

Financial and Professional services are a source of UK comparative advantage and the sector has in the past made a very significant contribution to UK growth.12 This includes a range of sub-sectors, from accountancy and management consultancy to banking and law. Going forward, this sector is likely to benefit as other industries restructure and outsource activities and rising incomes increase demand for more sophisticated goods. Innovation surveys suggest that this sector has a high proportion of innovation active firms. They provide a significant input to other sectors with very little output going to end users and therefore offer a channel for transmitting efficiency gains and spillovers to a wider group of industries.

5.6

Outside London, Manchester is the nation's main centre of financial and professional services, which employs over 190,000 people and generates £9bn p.a. of GVA. This crucial sector has been the primary source of private sector growth nationally and in GM both in terms of employment and GVA and is set to continue to increase its share of both going forward.

5.7

The key skills challenges affecting the Financial and Professional Services sector, identified by the UK Commission for Employment and Skills (UKCES)13, are as follows.

12 13



A number of drivers present challenges to the sector over the medium-term. These include: increased regulation, global competition and technological change These challenges also present opportunities the sector which include: building on preeminence in certain niche market sectors; competing successfully in growing markets in Asia and other parts of the world; dealing with the ongoing challenges of increased regulation to restore confidence in those parts of the sector most damaged by the financial crisis; and using new technologies to develop new products and modes of service delivery to meet the requirements of more demanding customers, and to provide more efficient services.



Skill demand is oriented towards highly skilled and qualified people in managerial, professional, and associate professional occupations who have typically been educated to first degree level or above. However, it needs to be borne in mind that the sector has a strong demand for other occupational groups, in particular clerical and administrative, and sales and customer service workers. Whilst much skill demand is for people who have attained, at a minimum, a first degree, there are many people employed in the sector who will be more typically qualified to Level 3.



Given the adverse effect of the economic downturn on recruitment, the sector faces the challenge of ensuring the skills supply is increased in order to facilitate recovery and growth over the longer term.



Whilst the sector engages in a relatively high amount of training relative to the rest of the economy, the evidence indicates that in the financial sector, the take-up of vocational qualifications is relatively low (though not by much) compared with the economy as a whole.

Industrial Strategy, BIS:2012

Sector Skills Insights : Financial and Business Services, available here: http://www.ukces.org.uk/publications/er56-sector-skills-insights-professional-business

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

Employers appear to be reluctant to use vocational qualifications because they do not see a good fit between these and the sector’s skill needs. And, certainly in the financial sub-sector, there is relatively limited engagement with external providers of training.



However, the evidence suggests that where employers have made use of programmes such as Apprenticeships they can point to a number of benefits from having done so. Potentially, Apprenticeships in the areas of finance and business administration, where the numbers of apprentices has grown strongly over recent years, provides an alternative pathway into a sector which has traditionally been reliant upon graduates from higher education. This may alleviate potential future skill shortages.

Health and Social Care 5.8

The Health and Social Care sector employs 163,000 people in GM and generates £4.7bn of GVA. Within the sector, life sciences are crucial high value component – it is one of the UK’s top exporters and is the 4th largest pharmaceutical sector in the world. Within GM there is a high concentration of critical assets including of Manchester Science Park, The Christie Hospital, and UK Biobank. In addition the MediPark project currently being developed looks to add to GM’s already substantial life sciences presence.14

5.9

The key challenge facing the Health and Social Care sector is to meet increasing demand for services whilst operating with constrained resources in a rapidly changing operational environment. A market research report by MBD concluded that there will be a significant rise in use of private healthcare in the coming years, with a 5% increase in 2011, followed by increases of 5-7% until 2015. This is likely to be driven by reforms encouraging competition between private providers and the public sector as well as increasing outsourcing by the NHS.

5.10 There is also the issue of the increasingly aging population, which is likely to create new challenges for the sector, both in terms of health and social care. There will be an increasing demand for services, with employees being required to do more with less and be more attuned to the needs of elderly patients. 5.11 Whilst the sector boasts a highly qualified workforce, with an estimated 61% of the workforce qualified to Level 4 or equivalent, there remains a range of current skills gaps, skills shortages and occupational shortages that are highlighted as an immediate priority for the sector. These priorities are evidenced through the UK Health Sector Skills Assessment 2011, analysis of NHS vacancy data and the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) ‘Skilled, Shortage and Sensible’ shortage occupation list for the UK and Scotland. The skills gaps highlighted include:    14

Technical, practical and job-specific areas; Problem solving skills; Oral communication skills;

Industrial Strategy, BIS 2012

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  

Customer handling skills; Team working skills; and Management and leadership skills.

5.12 The MAC list contains 35 occupations with distinct shortages. Of relevance to the sector, traditionally one with significant reliance on migrant labour, include:    

Consultants within certain specialties Pharmacists Dental practitioners Specialist nurses and therapists in certain roles

5.13 Research has demonstrated that management skills are correlated with financial performance and better patient outcomes, at the same time as other challenges are increasing the demands made on managers. Both Skills for Health and Skills for Care and Development sector skills councils have highlighted the relative importance of upskilling the management and leadership population for the future wellbeing of the sector. 5.14 Investment in training is relatively high with over 80 per cent of employers arranging training for their staff in the sector compared to 59 per cent in the economy as a whole, and the proportion of the workforce receiving training (66 per cent) is also above average (54 per cent) but declining in line with all sectors. 5.15 In addition to these findings above there is a need for employers to identify and address literacy and numeracy skill gaps across the sector. This action will be needed if employers want to progress individuals within the sector in order to deliver flexibility in healthcare delivery. 5.16 The UKCES15 conclude that to meet these challenges there is a need to: 

   

change working practices and roles by reworking traditional approaches to provide greater flexibility, embrace new technology and deliver more appropriate patient care; develop new entry routes into the sector for example through apprenticeships; encourage innovation and use the opportunities afforded by technology to develop new services and ways of working; raise engagement to maximise productivity, retention and minimise absence; and develop management and leadership capability.

Education 5.17 Higher and further education are a key enabler of economic activity in providing skilled individuals across the economy. They also present significant and interesting export opportunities – the UK has the second highest share of foreign students in tertiary

UKCES Sector Skills Insights : Health & Social Care, available at http://www.ukces.org.uk/publications/er52sector-skills-insights-health-and-social-care

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education. It has been estimated that UK education exports amount to around £14 billion per year.16 5.18 The Education sector in GM employs 105,000 people and adds £3.0bn of GVA. The sector is a large employer of highly skilled and qualified employees. It also provides GM with education and training to individuals, which keeps our firms competitive and supports residents to improve their life chances. The conurbation’s research intensive institutions also deliver new products and services that give GM a competitive advantage, with the recent discovery of Graphene representing a global growth opportunity. 5.19 The UKCES17 identifies the key skills challenges affecting the Education sector as follows.

16 17



Substantial change driven by national policy, although it is a sector with a long tradition of needing to introduce major reforms since the Education Act of 1945. Education budgets are being cut, policy continues to develop apace with implications for the skill needs of teachers, lecturers and managers. Recent reforms have redesigned and reshaped education and skills provision which has major implications for managers operating in the sector.



FE and HE institutions are increasingly operating in international markets for their income and need to maintain a strong position in the world markets against increasingly strong competition from countries such as the USA and Australia.



Attracting and retaining the best and brightest educators, particularly STEM and modern language teachers in sufficient numbers



A need to develop technical and ICT skills to respond to the increasing demand for e-learning and technology implementation in service delivery. The implementation and exploitation of technology, in terms of new platforms, new delivery methods and new communication methods, will be essential to growth in the sector and maintaining its position in the international market



Skill mismatches are less in evidence in the sector than in the economy generally. This relates to both external skill deficiencies (i.e. recruitment problems) and internal ones (i.e. skill gaps). This relates at least in part to the strong training supply infrastructure and the relatively heavy investments which are made in the training of new and existing teachers, trainers, and lecturers. Despite the relatively low incidence of skill mismatches there are likely to be particular areas of shortage, such as those people are who are skilled in teaching STEM subjects.



There is a need to maintain current levels of activity and build upon it, at a time of pressures on education and training budgets, in order that important economic and social goals are not derailed by people lacking the necessary skills the economy needs.

Industrial Strategy, BIS 2012

Sector Skills Insights : Education. Available here: http://www.ukces.org.uk/publications/er57-sector-skillsinsights-education

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Creative and Digital Industries 5.20 ICT business in the UK has a strong reputation for innovative technology and design as well as high-end security activities. This is backed by strong research and science capability which ensures UK companies stay at the front of this highly versatile sector, contributing to over 7% of UK GVA. ICT is also at the heart of most modern products and processes and is often a driver of new innovation.18 5.21 Creative & Digital industries account for 105,000 jobs in GM, and generate £4.7bn p.a. of economic output. The MediaCity:UK development is bringing in a large number of employees from the BBC in London, as well as creating new vacancies for Greater Manchester residents. There is also likely to be an increase in ICT businesses in the area as new companies emerge to take advantage of the proximity of an important media hub. The development of the Sharp project in Manchester will also give the sector a significant boost. 5.22 Skillset, the Sector Skills Council for Creative Media, produced its latest Sector Skills Assessment in January 2011, outlining the crucial issues for the sector. The key skills challenges facing the sector identified include: 

the predominance of small and medium businesses, with a large – and growing – number of people in the sector working freelance, make engagement difficult;



while employees and freelancers have high levels of desire for training and education, employers do not currently meet this demand;



employers report a large number of hard to fill vacancies. Sales, marketing and technical development are particularly difficult areas to fill for companies in this sector;



there is a significant issue with mismatch of applicants’ abilities to the needs of the job. However, improvements in training and education are felt to be helping to rectify this issue;



innovation is crucial to the industry and new developments in digital technology demands constant redevelopment of business plans and employee skills and



key skills gaps, including: Multiskilling, including understanding of different technology platforms; Multi platform skills; Management, leadership, business and entrepreneurial skills; IP and monetisation of multiplatform content; Broadcast engineering; Sales and marketing; and Diagonal thinking, meaning the ability to create new, innovative ideas and stories then monetise them using a variety of media on several platforms.

5.23 The E-Skills Sector Skills Council sets out the current skills environment as well as the key issues for the digital economy going forward. 

Despite the pressure of the recession, businesses are still likely to find a shortage of applicants for positions. Posts involving programming, technical support and technology management roles tend to be the most difficult to fill.

Industrial Strategy, BIS 2012

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

The sector is also suffering from skills gaps among the current workforce as a result of globalisation and convergence.



The main skills gaps are in senior positions and relate to IT programme management, supplier management and service management and delivery.



Digital content companies have an oversupply of applicants, but a general lack of skills in several crucial areas when recruiting. In particular there is a need for more skills in management and leadership, monetisation of content, production of multi-platform content, broadcast engineering and visual effects. Multi-skilling is an important aspect for content companies to ensure efficiency and productivity.



There is a perception that the education system is not adequately preparing young people for the digital economy. The number of UK applicants for computing degrees is dropping, while there is a lack of teaching skills and adequate information to allow students to pursue careers in IT. Moreover, there is still a massive gender imbalance, with men making up over 90% of workers in IT.



Digital skills are now important for businesses in all sectors, with exploitation of technology a key aspect in maintaining competitiveness in the face of globalisation. However, smaller companies and older leaders are less likely to recognise the full importance of technology.



In the future, demand for IT skills is likely to see a significant increase across the board, with a 1.2% yearly growth in the number of employees in the sector forecast nationally to 2019. Over half of these professionals are likely to come from other professions, with only a fifth provided by the education system.



Skills shortages are most often reported by firms seeking to recruit Software Engineers, IT & Telecoms Management, Systems Developers or Internet Professionals though a larger number of Networking vacancies were actually proving difficult to fill due to related skills shortages.



Business skills, higher level technical skills and sector knowledge / experience are often considered lacking amongst applicants.



In the future, strongest growth will be in high skill areas, particularly Software Professionals along with ICT Managers and IT Strategy & Planning Professionals.



The changing nature of skills in the UK will continue to be primarily in high value roles such as project management; systems architecture; business process management; change management; security; risk management; analytics; and web/internet development.



More generally, there will continue to be an increasing need for customer, consumer and business-oriented skills as well as sophisticated technical competencies.

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Advanced Manufacturing 5.24 The UK has a strong comparative advantage in sub-sectors of Advanced Manufacturing such as in the aerospace and automotive industries which, because of their highly innovative nature, are a major source of knowledge and innovation spillovers. The UK aerospace industry is the biggest in Europe and second largest in the world, whilst the UK also has some of Europe’s most productive car plants.19 5.25 37,000 employees already work in the Advanced Manufacturing sector in GM and the conurbation has a strong base from which to build. In many respects the aim is to encourage all of manufacturing to become advanced manufacturers since it is only becoming this that business will be able to thrive and contribute to the rebalancing of the economy. Advanced Manufacturing represents one of the best opportunities for GM to contribute to the rebalancing of the UK economy. The sector has the potential to drive up levels of value-added in the economy, and make a substantial contribution to export growth. 5.26 Greater Manchester was successful in four bids to the first round of the RGF, each of which will boost prospects in the advanced manufacturing sector: 

establishment of a new high-tech manufacturing plant with research and development at composites firm Tygavac in Rochdale;



the development of a new factory, research and development laboratory, and headquarters for heavy machine tools business Holroyd Precision in Rochdale;



a new headquarters for advanced manufacturer Mono Pumps in Ashton Moss as part of a wider multipurpose development; and



the Former Manchester Royal Eye Hospital development will receive RGF funding and will concentrate on a redevelopment of the old Manchester Royal Eye Hospital building as a bio-medical centre.

5.27 The Manchester Airport City Development will include a new advanced manufacturing workspace, which is likely to provide high tech manufacturing companies with an attractive location in the future. Firms located on the site will benefit from a £55,000 reduction in business rates for 5 years, access to next generation broadband, reduced restrictions on development, as well as other benefits that are still being developed. 5.28 However, even with these schemes, it is unlikely that the sector will become a significant net provider of new jobs for the conurbation. Growth in advanced engineering is likely to be in high skilled, high-GVA but low employment sub-sectors. 5.29 The UKCES20 identify the key skills issues facing the sector as follows. 

19 20

The speed of change is increasing and forcing supply chains to become more like supply networks requiring higher levels of flexibility, agility and a broader spread of soft skills across the workforce. It is likely that in the future higher levels of employee responsibility, autonomy and managerial delegation will be required at all levels in the organisation. This is driving up skill levels in manufacturing.

Industrial Strategy, BIS 2012

UKCES (2012) Sector Skills Insights: Advanced Manufacturing, available at: http://www.ukces.org.uk/assets/ukces/docs/publications/evidence-report-48-advanced-manufacturing.pdf

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

Occupational restricting away from skilled trades and process and machine operatives towards managers, professional, and associate and technical occupations resulting in a higher demand for skills. In particular, the sector has and will continue to have a strong demand for people with Science Technology Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) skills. However, due to retirements, the sector will have a continued demand for people trained to Level 3 (typically via Apprenticeships).



The sector is thought to be well supported by an extensive initial and continuing vocational education and training infrastructure with a substantial increase in the number of people being qualified each year in the subjects and skills upon which the manufacturing sector is dependent.



In the advanced manufacturing sub-sector the supply-side often has to run very fast in order to keep pace with developments on the demand side. Accordingly, employers at the cutting-edge may need to look internally to develop the skills they require



Attracting and retaining the best staff as core requirements – e.g. high levels of numeracy – are in high demand across sectors.



Key skills deficiencies relate to professional and senior managers and their ability to adequately research the drivers of change to enable them to develop effective product market strategies.

Retail 5.30 131,000 people were employed in this sector in 2012 and it has grown by 4,500 jobs over the previous decade, although it was hit badly by the recession. Despite the anticipated decline in traditional retail and on-line and home delivery become more common, forecasts still indicate that around 8,800 job opportunities will be created each year in the sector for new entrants. 5.31 The Skillsmart Retail UK Sector Skills Assessment offers an overview of the skills requirements in the sectors across the country and regionally. Its main insights are set out as follows: 

When it comes to skills gaps amongst existing staff, retail has a rather higher proportion of employees who are not fully proficient in their jobs than other sectors. However lack of experience in recently recruited staff is the single biggest cause of skills gaps, leading to the conclusion that the major cause of the slight excess of skills gaps in the retail sector will be its high rates of staff turnover.



The retail sector has the highest replacement demand of all sectors, due to its growth and also the high labour turnover which is evident within the sector.



Much of the overall growth in the sector will be in part-time employment, although there will a small increase in full-time employment and decreases in selfemployment over the next decade.

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

The sector has, and will continue to witness, an increase in demand for managers and senior staff.



Research shows that larger retailers realise that retailing is becoming increasingly complex, resulting in a growing need for commercial, leadership and managerial skills. Concern was expressed that the mix of a low image of the sector and perception of poor pay made it difficult to attract the necessary calibre of staff.



People working within the sector recognise that a very wide range of skills is necessary for a store manager position. The most common were leadership skills, numeracy and communication skills.

Logistics 5.32 136,000 people were employed in this sector in 2012 although it has shrunk by 21,000 in the last decade. Forecasts however indicate a growth of 13,000 jobs in the next 10 years. The decline of traditional retailing and rise of on-line trading means that there are increasing crossovers between the retail and logistics sectors. 5.33 The Skills for Logistics Sector Skills Assessment 2011 identifies the key issues currently affecting the sector, as well as the likely future skills needs for logistics in Greater Manchester. 

Many of the new jobs created in the sector will be at the managerial and professional level, reflecting the increasing complexity of the sector. New technology will demand a shift from low to intermediate and high skills with a greater need for Science, Engineering, Technology and mathematics (STEM) qualifications.



Up-skilling and multi-skilling key staff will be necessary to ensure the sector is able to respond to an increased customer focus stimulated by increased home deliveries.



In addition to the additional skills which are needed, there is real concern in attracting enough people to meet the labour need within the sector. There is a lack of young people entering the sector, which is a significant threat given the sector has an ageing workforce.



Analysis of recruitment levels, hard-to-fill vacancies, skills shortage vacancies, and workforce skills gaps reveals that on the whole supply is meeting demand (due in part to an increase in the pool of labour resulting from the recession and increased migration).



The following skills are harder to recruit to the logistics sector compared to the whole economy: Technical, practical and job specific skills; numeracy, office admin, team working, customer handling and managerial skills; SfL analysis concludes that logistics employers mainly focus training activity on adhering to legislative and regulatory requirements.

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Hospitality and Tourism 5.34 This sector employs 74,300 people in GM, and although it grew before the recession, the industry is now smaller by 900 employees than it was in 2002. However, going forward it is forecast to grow by 7,700 by 2022, and in the process will provide 7,000 job opportunities each year due to a level of turnover far higher than in many other sectors. GM’s employment is concentrated in Manchester, with a third of the cityregion’s share. The sector is characterised by a large number of small employers (many are in fact owner-operators) which poses a skills challenge in terms of training and development of staff, and introduces a business development aspect to training in the sector. 5.35 Demand in the sector tends to fluctuate, which causes issues with productivity, profitability and success beyond the short term for many businesses, and is a driving force behind the high demand for transient workers in the sector, all of which feeds into a not insignificant challenge in terms of up-skilling and workforce development. 5.36 There are several skills challenges in the industry, some of which are historic and others are developing as the sector changes going forward. 

The more senior roles are where the most critical skills gaps exist for employers, and there is a need for clear development pathways into these roles both from outside and from inside the sector. Managers in small businesses require a broader range of skills due to the variety of tasks they undertake because small businesses are reluctant to seek external training provision.



There are increasing skills gaps in customer service skills and soft skills, and although a growing number of employers are training in this area, there are higher expectations from customers and employers in terms of the quality of these skills.



There will be a need to fill gaps in specific knowledge, ranging from environmental and energy cost reduction skills to local knowledge and knowledge of specific markets, such as customers with disabilities.



Employees in this sector will need a broader skill set in the future, particularly for more senior positions and there is also a need for more financial management, kitchen and people management skills among senior chefs.

5.37 Priorities for this sector include formalising qualifications, developing appropriate Apprenticeship frameworks and ensuring there is pre-employment training available and that development pathways within the sector are created.

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6 NEXT STEPS 6.1

The Partnership will use the evidence in this document to set skills priorities and outcomes for GM for 2012/13.

6.2

The LMI Steering Group will build on the evidence in this document to develop GM’s LMI offer so that it increasingly meets the needs of providers in their curriculum planning. This will include the following: 

Sector based “deep dives”, focusing on examining the data and research evidence in detail with employers, providers and other partners to ascertain the extent to which supply is meeting demand. These will be undertaken in quarter 4 2012. In undertaking this work, New Economy will consult with a wide group of stakeholders, including: the GM Principals Group, the GM Learning Providers Network, GM’s Universities, Team Manchester Economic Development Leads, employers, GM Chamber Sector Skills Councils and Economic Development Committee and other employer/sector representative bodies.



Further developing GM’s labour market information offer, by sourcing additional information on employer demand, initially from the following sources: 

GM Chamber of Commerce Skills Survey;



Vacancy information from recruitment companies; and



Sector Skills Councils intelligence and data.



Further work will also be done to develop the HE LMI profile for GM, including the growing area of “HE in FE” provision.



National Apprenticeship Service (NAS) quarterly data will be incorporated into the Skills and Employment Quarterly Bulletin when it becomes available to New Economy later this year.

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APPENDIX 1 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; JCP VACANCIES BY OCCUPATION OCCUPATION

11 : Corporate Managers

486 2,057 1,814 1,530 1,034 713 528 369 1,632 1,441 1,377 3,290 2,340 702 1,610 949 671 1,463 1,463 906 557 786 2,002 1,646 1,206 364 1,400 462 402 534 525 1,818 557 649 559

35 : Business and Public Service Associate Professionals 354 : Sales And Related Associate Professionals 3542 : Sales representatives 41 : Administrative Occupations 52 : Skilled Metal and Electronic Trades 53 : Skilled Construction and Building Trades 531 : Construction Trades 61 : Caring Personal Service Occupations 611 : Healthcare And Related Personal Services 6115 : Care assistants and home carers 71 : Sales Occupations 711 : Sales Assistants And Retail Cashiers 7111 : Sales and retail assistants 7113 : Telephone salespersons 712 : Sales Related Occupations 7129 : Sales related occupations n.e.c. 72 : Customer Service Occupations 721 : Customer Service Occupations 7211 : Call centre agents/operators 7212 : Customer care occupations 81 : Process, Plant and Machine Operatives 82 : Transport and Mobile Machine Drivers and Operatives 821 : Transport Drivers And Operatives 8211 : Heavy goods vehicle drivers 8212 : Van drivers 91 : Elementary Trades, Plant and Storage Related Occupations 912 : Elementary Construction Occupations 913 : Elementary Process Plant Occupations 914 : Elementary Goods Storage Occupations 9149 : Other goods handling and storage occupations n.e.c. 92 : Elementary Administration and Service Occupations 922 : Elementary Personal Services Occupations 923 : Elementary Cleaning Occupations 9233 : Cleaners, domestics

% 2.5% 10.8% 9.5% 8.0% 5.4% 3.7% 2.8% 1.9% 8.5% 7.5% 7.2% 17.2% 12.2% 3.7% 8.4% 5.0% 3.5% 7.7% 7.7% 4.7% 2.9% 4.1% 10.5% 8.6% 6.3% 1.9% 7.3% 2.4% 2.1% 2.8% 2.7% 9.5% 2.9% 3.4% 2.9%

Source: Department for Work and Pensions (2012)

New Economy

068

APPENDIX 2 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; JCP VACANCIES BY SECTOR INDUSTRY 74 : Other business activities 85 : Health and social work 52 : Retail trade, except motor vehicles and motorcycles; repair of personal & household goods 93 : Other service activities 45 : Construction 55 : Hotels and restaurants 91 : Activities of membership organisations not elsewhere classified 67 : Activities auxiliary to financial intermediation 80 : Education 75 : Public administration and defence; compulsory social security 64 : Post and telecommunications 65 : Financial intermediation, except insurance and pension funding 40 : Electricity, gas, steam and hot water supply 51 : Wholesale trade and commission trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles 50 : Sale, maintenance & repair of motor vehicles & motorcycles; retail sale of automotive fuel 92 : Recreational, cultural and sporting activities 60 : Land transport; transport via pipelines 70 : Real estate activities 72 : Computer and related activites 73 : Research and development 95 : Private households as employers of domestic staff 63 : Supporting and auxiliary transport activities; activities of travel agencies 01 : Agriculture, hunting and related service activities 15 : Manufacturing of food and beverages 66 : Insurance and pension funding, except compulsory social security 28 : Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment 22 : Publishing, printing and reproduction of recorded media 29 : Manufacture of machinery and equipment not elsewhere classified 36 : Manufacture of furniture; manufacturing not elsewhere classified 71 : Renting of machinery & equipment without operator and of personal and household goods 37 : Recycling 20 : Manufacture of wood & products of wood & cork, exc furniture; manufacture of articles of straw & plaiting materials 25 : Manufacture of rubber and plastic products

N 11,536 1,106 993 762 553 548 484 395 382 320 221 170 167 139 124 120 113 103 92 86 84 75 62 61 50 47 39 31 23 21 21

17 : Manufacture of textiles 90 : Sewage and refuse disposal, sanitation and similar activities 33 : Manufacture of medical, precision and optical instruments, watches and clocks Source: Department for Work and Pensions (2012)

New Economy

069

18 18 18 17 14