Manchester Monitor
CARLISLE
PENRITH
December 2013 KENDAL
Greater Manchester’s role as the regional business capital
LANCASTER
BLACKPOOL
PRESTON BLACKBURN
BURNLEY
ST HELENS SOUTHPORT
GREATER MANCHESTER
LIVERPOOL
WARRINGTON
MACCLESFIELD
CHESTER
CREWE
Greater Manchester the focus of the North West’s business base Jobseeker numbers fall for eighth month in a row No room at the inn House prices remain stagnant Increase in arson www.neweconomymanchester.com research@neweconomymanchester.com
Monitor Focus Greater Manchester’s role as the regional business capital Greater Manchester’s (GM) contribution the North West economy is emphasised by the latest figures from the 2013 edition of the Inter-Departmental Business Register (IDBR). Published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) it shows that there are just over 93,000 companies in GM, accounting for almost 40% of the North West business base. On an annual basis, business numbers in GM grew modestly by 0.7% (600) compared to 2012, in line with the UK trend of 0.6%. Whilst GM has the number of businesses one would expect given its size, it has seen growth in specific sectors that reflect GM’s role as the business capital for the North West. Over the last 12 months, information & communication, property, and professional, technical & scientific were the main growth sectors in the conurbation, growing by 4.0% (205), 3.4% (135), and 3.3% (425) respectively. Last month’s Manchester Monitor reported continuing improvements to the economic climate in Greater Manchester, and this month sees similar trends. In particular, the latest unemployment figures show that 3,300 fewer people were claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) in October 2013 across GM on a monthly basis. The decline also applies to young (16–24) and long-term claimants, with monthly decreases of 6.5% and 6.2% respectively. Sounding a note of caution, however, the number of job seekers normally falls in the final quarter of year as the runup to Christmas tends to provide a seasonal boost to employment. With unemployment falling and UK GDP now on the rise (the latter having grown by 0.8% in the third quarter of 2013), the economy is starting to show real signs of recovery. The forthcoming release of the Greater Manchester Forecasting Model (GMFM) is therefore timely, providing long-term employment and economic output estimates for the area and highlighting which sectors are likely to grow over future years. The January edition of the Monitor will feature detailed analysis on the main findings from the GMFM. In terms of the visitor economy, on an annual basis Manchester Airport saw growth of 5.0% (105,500) on last year in passenger numbers – the highest level of growth across all comparator airports, including the London airports. As part of Manchester Airport’s new strategic growth plan with Monarch, there are new planned routes to Naples, Agadir, Hurghanda, and Enfidha for 2014. In other positive visitor economy news, the highest weekend hotel occupancy rate ever achieved in the city centre (92%) was matched in October 2013. In Manchester city centre
1 | Manchester Monitor – December 2013
and Greater Manchester, the average rates for October were 82.8% and 82.0% respectively, both of which were higher than the same month last year. Key events in October driving growth included the Conservative Party Conference, a number of big football matches and the rugby league Super League Grand Final at Old Trafford. The recent opening of the Manchester Christmas Markets will provide a further boost to the visitor economy in the run-up to the holiday season, with around 120,000 visitors attracted on the opening weekend alone, an increase of 15% from last year. Highlighting the importance of the Christmas Markets to the GM economy, it was estimated that in 2012 they were worth £74 million in terms of total spend. New research by the Greater Manchester Chamber of Commerce this month also shows that in its first year in Manchester, the National Football Museum contributed an estimated £16.8m to the GM economy. Having opened its doors in July 2012, it attracted 458,000 visitors in the first year – 30.9% higher than the forecast 350,000 attendance. Turning to the housing market, data released in November by ONS regarding the number of home purchases and the value of equity loans under the Government Help to Buy equity loan scheme show that in the first six months (to end of September 2013) there were 258 properties bought with the support of the scheme in GM, representing 4.8% of properties purchased with scheme in England, and worth £8.0 million in value. The scheme aims to boost a flagging housing market by aiding people to take mortgages they would not have originally been able to access. However, the OECD recently warned that it must be carefully monitored, since the scheme risks overheating the housing market with a rapid increase in prices, which while boosting wealth and private consumption, could potentially undermine affordability and overstretch first-time buyers. The latest data from the Land Registry show that the GM housing market is still struggling. The average house in the conurbation cost £103,638 in October 2013, a decline of 0.4% (£464) from this time last year, compared to rising prices in England & Wales as a whole of 3.1% (£4,917), to reach £165,515. The latest crime data reveal total volumes of crime have decreased by 6.0% annually, representing 11,379 fewer crimes across GM. Conversely, data from the Greater Manchester Fire & Rescue Service show a 15.9% increase in deliberate fires in GM over the year to October 2013, highlighting the challenges that GM experiences with regard to the crime of arson against most other comparator areas.
Monitor Dashboard Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) claimants
Airport Passengers
18.0%
5.0%
since last year
since September 2012
Business Numbers
Hotel Occupancy
3.1%pts
0.7%
on October 2012
from 2012 to 2013
House Prices
Crime Volume
0.4%
6.0%
since October 2012
since October 2012
Manchester Monitor – December 2013 | 2
People Monitor Jobseekers fall for eighth month in a row. The latest figures show that around 69,200 people were claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) in Greater Manchester (GM) in October 2013 – a decrease of 3,300 (4.5%) when compared with the figure for September 2013 of 72,500. The North West (4.5%) and Great Britain (4.3%) also saw monthly falls. As a proportion of the resident working-age population, 3.5% of people in GM were claiming JSA in October – in line with the North West (3.5%) and still higher than Great Britain (3.0%). JSA claimants The number of male JSA claimants fell on a monthly basis by 4.6% (2,182) to 45,052, while the number of female claimants decreased by 4.4% (1,107) to 24,194. This equates to a year-on-year fall in male JSA claimants in GM of 11,223 (19.9%). The number of female claimants also fell on an annual basis, and is now 14.2% (3,992) lower than this time last year. Youth unemployment (JSA claimants aged 16–24) in GM decreased on a monthly basis between September and October, with a decline of approximately 1,200 to 17,890. Year-on-year, the number of youth JSA claimants declined by 27.1%, and is now 6,655 lower than this time last year. There was also a decline in long-term (6 months+) claimants in GM in October 2013 to 32,655, a monthly fall of 2,140 (6.2%). On an annual basis the number of long-term claimants is 11.7% (4,330) lower than this time last year. However, this fall was less than that seen in the North West (13.6%) and Great Britain (12.2%). The Government’s official measure of unemployment uses the International Labour Organisation (ILO) definition, which is higher than the claimant count as it includes all those out of work and not just people claiming out of work benefits. The proportion of people aged 16+ out-of-work in GM was 9.4%, with no change on a quarterly basis. However UK unemployment currently stands at 7.8%, and in the North West it is 8.2%, so the proportion of people out of work across the conurbation remains higher than national and regional trends.
Whilst the ongoing decline in GM’s JSA claimants is positive news, it is likely that some of this is a result of people moving onto the new Universal Credit system. Although claimants are shown to be decreasing, this might not be as pronounced as the figures first suggest. One should also consider the normal rise in temporary seasonal jobs – particularly in retail – between now and January, which will add a short-term boost to the JSA figures. Other data also show that while unemployment is heading in the right direction, many employers are still remaining cautious on hiring new staff and improving productivity remains a key issue for a lot of firms. Vacancies Data The Labour Insight1 vacancies database reveals that there were 18,236 job openings in GM in October 2013, down by almost one quarter (-6,400) on the same month last year. Vacancies data tend to fluctuate more than employment data. However, regular analysis provides a useful indicator on current labour market opportunities. In particular, it gives an insight into the types of vacancies that are on offer in GM. For example, the highest proportion of vacancies were in professional occupations (27.5% or 5,020), followed by associate professional & technical roles (21.0%, 5,532). Around 11,000 of the vacancies in GM in October were in Manchester, followed by Stockport (1,400), and Bolton (1,200).
Jobseeker’s Allowance - Annual Change
Total Jobseeker’s Allowance Claimants in August 2013
69,246 Decreased by 18.0% year-on-year
Vacancies - Annual Change Women
Men
Youth
$14.2% $19.9% $27.1% $11.7%
$26.1% 1
Source: Labour/insight (Burning Glass Technologies)
3 | Manchester Monitor – December 2013
Long-term
Business Monitor Number of VAT and/or PAYE based enterprises in top 5 sectors in GM, 2013 Professional scientific & technical 13,405 Retail 11,850
Construction 8,885 Production 6,485
Business administration 6,415
Greater Manchester: the focus for the North West’s business base Data from the 2013 Inter-Departmental Business Register (IDBR) from the Office for National Statistics show modest growth (0.7%) in business numbers across GM, representing 610 new businesses. Growth sectors include information & communication, property, and professional, scientific & technical. Introduced in 1994, the latest IDBR is a comprehensive list of UK businesses that is used by government for statistical purposes and it shows that GM has a total of 93,600 businesses, representing around 40% of the business base in the North West. This is in line with a number of other socioeconomic indicators, which show that the conurbation accounts for a similar proportion of the region’s economic output, its employment base and population. By employment size, the breakdown of the GM business base is: • • • •
Micro, 0–9 employees: 75,000 Small, 10–49 employees: 14,300 Medium, 50–249: 3,200 Large, 250+ employees: 500
Data reveal a modest increase in business numbers (0.7%) from 2012 to 2013, in line with the economic optimism that has dominated the headlines in recent months. This is also in line with Barclays’ and the Business Growth Fund’s (BGF) Entrepreneurs Index released last month, examining the
entrepreneurial landscape in the UK. Regionally, the report revealed there has been a 0.5% rise in the number of enterprises in the past 12 months in the North West – the joint third highest increase in the UK. Looking at the IDBR data in further detail reveals that growth has come in a number of specific sectors. Over the last 12 months information & communication, property, and professional, technical & scientific were the main growth sectors in the conurbation, having grown by 4.0% (205), 3.4% (135), and 3.3% (425) respectively. In absolute terms, the biggest sectors in 2013 were professional, scientific & technical (13,400), followed by retail (11,850), and construction (8,885). More details on the GM economy will be published in next month’s Monitor, with a feature on the new Greater Manchester Forecasting Model (GMFM), due to be launched on 4 December at the GMFM Annual Conference. This will give a detailed picture of expected sectoral growth over the coming decades.
Manchester Monitor – December 2013 | 4
Place Monitor No room at the inn The latest monthly hotel occupancy data from STR Global Ltd reveal that the highest weekend rate ever achieved in the city centre of 92% was matched in October 2013. Furthermore, the opening weekend of Manchester Christmas Markets saw around 120,000 visitors, a 15% increase on last year. Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) data show the continuing year-onyear growth in passenger numbers at Manchester Airport.
Hotel Occupancy Hotel occupancy rates in Manchester city centre and Greater Manchester as a whole were recorded at 82.8% and 82.0% respectively in October 2013, 2 and 3.1 percentage points higher than the same month last year. The highest weekend rate ever achieved in the city centre stands at 92% and this was matched in October 2013. The average occupancy rate for January–October was 76% for both the city centre and Greater Manchester. This matches the 2006 and 2007 rates that led to the strongest annual average achieved to date. Key dates for hotel occupancy in the city centre during October were: • 1/2 October – Conservative Party Conference; • 5 October – 97% occupancy was recorded, which included a performance by Bruno Mars, the rugby league Super League Grand Final, Manchester City v Everton, and the Working Abroad exhibition; and • 26 October – occupancy of 98% was achieved, boosted by the Manchester United v Stoke match, UFC Fight Night, and Revolution track cycling and the Men’s World Squash Championships 2013. Other key events included, Fleetwood Mac’s and the Arctic Monkeys’ performances, as well as the NBA Global Games. While the data for November and December has not been released yet, it has been reported that on its opening
Airport passenger numbers
(+5.0%)
weekend, the Christmas Markets in Manchester attracted around 120,000 people, an increase of 15% on last year. In 2012 Manchester City Council estimated a total of £74.3 million gross spend at the markets and related Christmas events. Airport Passenger Numbers Manchester Airport handled 2.2 million passengers in September 2013, 105,500 (5.0%) higher than 12 months previously. Month-on-month passenger numbers decreased as the summer months came to an end, from 2.3 million in August 2013, a decline of 7.4% (175,424). The growth in passenger numbers at Manchester Airport was also higher than all of the other major UK airports, including Heathrow, between September 2012 and September 2013. Over the same annual period, Heathrow, Gatwick, Stansted and Birmingham saw passenger numbers grow by 3.3%, 3.2%, 3.0%, and 0.4% respectively. With over a year of consecutive month-on-month growth in passenger numbers at Manchester Airport, all indications are that this growth will continue over the next few months. Manchester Airport and Monarch have agreed a plan to grow routes and passenger numbers, which should futher help to boost growth. The plan will see Monarch extend its summer 2014 flying programme from Manchester, with new services to: Naples, Italy; Agadir, Morocco; Hurghada, Egypt; and Enfidha, Tunisia starting in May 2014, making Manchester Monarch's largest UK base.
Hotel occupancy (city centre)
2,195,748
83%
Flights
Hotel occupancy (GM)
(+2.9%)
15,700
82%
% represents year-on-year change
IMPORTANT NOTE: The source of the hotel occupancy data referenced in this newsletter is STR Global Ltd. Republication or other reuse of this data without the express written permission of STR Global is strictly prohibited.
5 | Manchester Monitor – December 2013
(2% pts)
(3% pts)
Housing Monitor Average house prices in Greater Manchester, October 2013 Trafford average = £186,035
£200,000 £180,000
England & Wales average = £165,515
£160,000 £140,000 GM average = £103,638
£120,000
Oldham average = £78,598
£100,000 £80,000 £60,000 £40,000 £20,000
ld ha m O
al e Ro ch d
lf o rd Sa
an W ig
n Bo lt o
id e Ta m es
G M M an ch es te r
Bu ry
St oc kp or t
Tr af fo
rd
£0
House prices remain stagnant The latest data from the Land Registry show that the average house in GM cost £103,638 in October 2013, a decline of 0.4% (£464) from this time last year. England & Wales saw a small annual rise in house prices of 3.1% (£4,917), reaching £165,515. House Prices
Help to Buy
Property prices in England & Wales grew 3.1% (£4,917) in October 2013, to reach £165,515, partly fuelled by Help to Buy.
Data released in November by ONS regarding the number of home purchases and the value of equity loans under the Government Help to Buy equity loan scheme show that in the first six months (to end of September) there were 258 properties bought with the support of the scheme in GM, representing 4.8% of the England figure. The total value of these equity loans was approximately £8 million, within a total for England as a whole of £208 million.
House prices in GM also saw a month-on-month rise of 1.0% (£1,004) in October 2013 to £103,638 but still remain 0.4% (£464) lower than this time last year. Trafford has the highest average house price in the connurbation at £186,035. Only Manchester (3.7% or £3,377) and Trafford (3.0% or £5,386) saw house prices rise between October 2012 and October 2013. The remaining eight districts all saw declines, with the largest coming in Wigan (4.1% or £3,787), Bury (3.5% or £3,898), and Bolton (3.0% or £2,792). Overall, the data suggests that GM’s housing market continues to lag. House sales Land Registry house sales data reveal that there were 2,927 properties sold in GM in August 2013. Year-on-year, house sales in GM have risen by 20.0% (487). This is proportionately higher than both the North West and national picture, where house sales have risen 16.9% (1,119) and 15.0% (9,753).
The scheme aims to boost a flagging housing market by aiding people to take mortgages they would not have originally been able to access, though the OECD recently warned that it must be carefully monitored in order to ensure it does not overheat the housing market with a rapid increase in prices, which while boosting wealth and private consumption, could potentially undermine affordability and overstretch first time buyers. In direct response to these fears, Mark Carney, Bank of England Governor, unveiled changes to the central bank’s Funding for Lending Scheme that will mean it only applies to business loans from 2014 and will no longer be available for household borrowing. The changes aim to avoid the mortgage market from getting out of control, as interest rates are set to remain unchanged until unemployment falls to 7%.
Manchester Monitor – December 2013 | 6
Crime Monitor Arson incidents (all deliberate fires) per 10,000 population 35
30
29.7 26.4
25 21.3 19.3
20
16.1 14.1
15
10
5 2.9
0 Merseyside
Tyne & Wear
Greater Manchester
South Yorkshire
West Yorkshire
West Midlands
London
Increase in arson in Greater Manchester Latest data from the Greater Manchester Fire & Rescue Service on arson shows a 15.9% increase in deliberate fires in GM over the year to October 2013. In contrast, crime data reveal that the total volume of crime in GM has decreased by 6.0% annually, representing 11,379 fewer crimes. GM Fire & Rescue Service Data Deliberate fires in GM (fires affecting open spaces and the public realm as well as property) were recorded at 9,294 for the 12 months to October 2013, compared to a figure of 8,020 for the previous year, an annual increase of 15.9% (1,274). Looking at arson incidents per 10,000 residents, GM experiences higher than average rates of deliberate fires than comparator areas such as South Yorkshire, West Yorkshire and the West Midlands, though lower than Merseyside and Tyne & Wear. Crime Volumes Baseline data for the 12 months ending October 2013 show a total of 179,152 crimes in GM, of which 90.0% (161,164) were victim-based. In terms of crime type, the breakdown was as follows: • • • •
Stealing – 98,385 Criminal Damage & Arson – 28,079 Violence – 27,796 Sexual Offence – 3,090
7 | Manchester Monitor – December 2013
While overall volumes of crime decreased by 6.0% in the course of the year up to October 2013, sexual offences increased by 17.9% (470) across GM during the same period. Whilst this is the only type of crime to be on the rise, it is believed that recent high-profile abuse cases have triggered a rise in historical sex abuse reports that is likely to account for this increase in GM. Hospital attendances The latest figures (October 2012 to September 2013) in relation to assault attendances at local emergency departments show that there were 12,993 assaults over the last twelve months, a 12% decrease when compared with figures for the previous 12 months (October 2011 to September 2012 – 13,064 assault attendances).