Manchester Monitor Quarterly July 2014 International visits worth ÂŁ0.5 billion to Greater Manchester
Further Signs of Labour Market Improvement GM Firms Intending to Recruit Hotel Occupancy on the Rise Again House Prices Slowly Moving Upwards Assault Attendances Continue to Increase
www.neweconomymanchester.com research@neweconomymanchester.com
Monitor Focus International visits worth £0.5 billion to Greater Manchester This issue of the Manchester Monitor Quarterly includes a detailed feature on the latest results from the International Passenger Survey (IPS). The analysis shows that Greater Manchester (GM) attracts the third highest number of foreign visitors to the UK, behind only the capital cities of London and Edinburgh. In 2013 it attracted almost 1 million overseas visitors, who spent around £480 million in the GM economy. Breaking this figure down in more detail, £127 million was generated by business visits and £97 million from holiday visits. The £480 million equates to growth of 10% on the 2012 spend figure of £396 million. The five markets that generated the highest volume of international visits to GM according to the 2013 IPS are Ireland, Germany, USA, Spain, and Poland. Combined, these countries generated 454,000 visits to GM in 2013, representing 39% of the total inbound market. Ireland is consistently the largest market to GM, with 139,000 Irish visitors in 2013. The figures also show significant growth for the lower volume, but high potential emerging markets. The BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) although only representing 4% of the overall inbound market, saw the volume of visitors increase by 59% on the 2012 figures. Turning to the regular visitor economy data on hotel occupancy and airport passenger numbers, these indicators are also positive. Hotel occupancy rates in both Manchester city centre and GM as a whole were recorded at 77% in May 2014, up from 75% and 74% respectively from 12 months previously. In order to meet the growing demand for accommodation a substantial number of new hotel rooms are planned over the next two years. There are currently just over 7,000 hotel rooms in the city centre, with a further 1,895 in the pipeline due to be built. By the end of 2016 there will be almost 9,000 hotel rooms, an increase of 27% on current levels and one that should help in boosting the size and contribution of the visitor economy to GM. Civil Aviation Authority data on airport passenger numbers are also positive, with Manchester Airport handling around 1.7 million passengers in April, an annual rise of 11.2%. The latest figures from the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) show that around 55,800 people were claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) in GM in May 2014 – a decrease of 2,800 (4.8%) when compared with the figure for April. Overall, the number of JSA claimants in GM is
1 | Manchester Monitor – July 2014
26,600 lower (32.3%) than 12 months ago. Around 3.2% of the resident working-age population in Greater Manchester were claiming JSA in May. This remains higher than in the North West (2.9%) and Great Britain (2.6%), mirroring the longer term trend of the conurbation having a higher JSA claimant rate – and highlighting an issue that GM still needs to tackle. The jobs data for GM remain encouraging and this trend is evident across the rest of the UK. The number of people in employment across the UK grew by 345,000 to a record 30.5 million between February and April, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This was the biggest increase since records began in 1971. ONS data also show that prices are rising faster than wages again. Average pay including bonuses grew by 0.7% in the three months to April, compared with 1.9% growth in the three months to March. Between April 2013 and April 2014, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) – the Government's preferred measure of inflation – increased by 1.8%. More positively, forecasters including the Bank of England and the Office for Budget Responsibility expect wages to begin outpacing inflation on a sustained basis during the second half of 2014. Land Registry data show that house prices are continuing to rise. While the rises are still fairly small outside London, this reverses the downward trend witnessed in the last few years. The average house in GM cost £106,000 in May 2014, an increase of 3.9% (£4,000) from this time last year. The rise is still below the increase in prices in England & Wales as a whole, where they grew by 6.7% (£10,800) on an annual basis to reach £172,000. The latest figures in relation to assault attendances at each of GM’s eight hospital trusts’ local emergency departments show that there has been a year-on-year rise in the number of people being treated for assaults over the last twelve months. Baseline data for the 12 months ending April 2014 show that 12,900 people were treated for assault-related injuries over the last 12 months in GM hospitals, an increase of 1% on the figures from the previous year. More positively for the crime data, GM Fire and Rescue Service data show that for the year ending 27 May 2014, deliberate fires in GM were recorded at 7,300. This compares to a figure of 8,725 for the previous year and represents an annual decline of 16.3% (1,400) in deliberate fires.
Monitor Dashboard Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) claimants
Airport Passengers
32.3%
11.2%
since last year
since April 2013
Employment Expectations
Hotel Occupancy
4pts
2.4%pts
on a quarterly basis. The balance of GM service sector companies in Q2 2014 reporting positive employment expectations over the next three months
House Prices
average occupancy rate in GM was 76.6%, up from 74.2% on the previous 12 months
Deliberate Fires
3.9%
16.3%pts
since May 2013
since May 2013
Manchester Monitor – July 2014 | 2
People Monitor Further signs of labour market improvement The latest figures show that around 55,800 people were claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) in GM in May 2014 – a decrease of 2,800 (4.8%) when compared with the figure of 58,700 for April. Overall, the number of JSA claimants in GM is 26,600 lower (32.3%) than 12 months ago. JSA Claimants Around 3.2% of the resident working age population in Greater Manchester were claiming JSA in May. This was higher than in the North West (2.9%) and Great Britain (2.6%), mirroring the longer term trend of the conurbation having a higher JSA claimant rate than the region and also nationally. The number of male JSA claimants in GM fell on a monthly basis by 5.1% (2,000) to 36,200, while the number of female claimants decreased 4.3% (900) to 19,600. This is in line with the annual JSA figures for males and females, which continue to fall. On an annual basis, the number of male claimants in GM fell by 19,100 (34.5%), with a decline of 7,500 (27.7%) for females. Youth unemployment (JSA claimants aged 16-24) in Greater Manchester declined by 7.6% (just over 1,000) on a monthly basis between April and May, falling from 13,800 to 12,700. On an annual basis, the number of youth JSA claimants is now 41.2% (8,900) lower than this time last year. There was also a decline in long-term (6 months+) claimants in GM in May 2014 to 26,000, down by 2.9% (800) on a monthly basis. Year-on-year, the number of long-term claimants has fallen by 32.6% (12,700). This is a slightly larger decrease than in the North West (31.3%) and also Great Britain (29.6%). The jobs data for GM remain encouraging and this trend is evident across the rest of the UK. The number of people in employment grew by 345,000 to a record 30.5 million between February and April, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This was the biggest increase since records began in 1971.
ONS data also show that prices are rising faster than wages again. Average pay including bonuses grew by 0.7% in the three months to April, compared with 1.9% growth in the three months to March. Between April 2013 and April 2014, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) – the Government's preferred measure of inflation – increased by 1.8%. More positively, forecasters including the Bank of England and the Office for Budget Responsibility expect wages to begin outpacing inflation on a sustained basis during the second half of 2014. Vacancies Data There were around 15,400 vacancies in GM in May 2014. Nearly two-thirds of positions were in Manchester (65.5%, or 10,055), followed by Stockport (8.0%, or 1,200) and Bolton (5.8%, or 900). The highest proportion of vacancies (31.2%) in May 2014 was in professional occupations – 4,800 jobs. Associate professional & technical roles (22.5%, or 3,500 roles) was the second largest occupation group, followed by sales & customer service occupations (11.6%, or 1,800 positions). Skills cluster analysis reveals that the top three most sought after specific skills by GM employers (excluding common skills) in May 2014 were: basic customer service skills; general sales experience; and programming, development and engineering expertise.
Jobseeker’s Allowance - Annual Change
Total Jobseeker’s Allowance Claimants in January 2014
55,842 Decreased by 32.3% year-on-year
Vacancies - Annual Change Women
Men
Youth
$27.7% $34.5% $41.2% $32.6%
$26.2% 1
Source: Labour/insight (Burning Glass Technologies)
3 | Manchester Monitor – July 2014
Long-term
Business Monitor Employment Expectations in GM Firms UK services sector employment expectations 2014: +33%
50 40
Balance of firms
30 20 10
UK manufacturing sector employment expectations Q2 2014: +34%
0 -10 -20
Manufacturing
Q2-14
Q2-13
Q2-12
Q2-11
Q2-10
Q2-09
-30
Services
GM firms intending to recruit The Q2 2014 GM Chamber of Commerce Quarterly Economic Survey (QES) collates the opinions of businesses across GM in the service and manufacturing sectors. The latest results indicate the positive outlook is continuing, with firms in both sectors intending to recruit and sales on the rise. Manufacturing The balance of GM manufacturing companies reporting positive expectations for employment over the next three months was 31% in Q2 2014 (the difference between positive and negative responses). While this was down on the balance of 44% for the first quarter of the year, the last time a negative figure was recorded was in Q4 2011 – indicating that firms remain confident about labour market conditions in the sector. Export figures for the manufacturing sector increased in Q2 2014, in terms of both deliveries and orders. The balance for export deliveries was 19% (compared to 16% in Q1 2014), while for orders it was 25% (16% in Q1 2014). Domestic orders and deliveries also remain positive, with the balance for orders standing at 27% and that for deliveries recorded at 33% for the second quarter of 2014.
Services The balance of GM service companies reporting positive employment expectations for the next quarter was 33% in Q2 2014, up from 29% in Q1 2014. The last time the balance for the sector was negative was five years ago in Q2 2009, with the outlook for services continuing to look positive. While employment expectations within the services sector are good, firms are still experiencing recruitment difficulties. The balance for companies reporting any difficulties was 64% in Q2 2014 and the last time the figure was below 60% was in the final quarter of 2009 when it stood at 39%. Domestic orders for the services sector are still rising, with a balance of 29% reported in Q2 2014. The balance for domestic orders was also positive at 28%.
Manchester Monitor – July 2014 | 4
Place Monitor This month’s quarterly feature looks in detail at the international visitor market to GM in order to provide a picture of recent trends and patterns. The analysis draws on data from the International Passenger Survey 2013 (undertaken by the Office for National Statistics, with results published by VisitBritain) to give estimates of the inbound visitor market. Inbound visits are worth £480 million to the GM economy according to the results. Within this figure, £127 million was generated by business visits and £97 million from holiday visits. The £480 million equates to growth of 10% on the 2012 spend figure of £396 million. Figure 1: International visits to UK destinations, 2013 (excluding London)
1,400,000
1,303,000
1,200,000 988,000
1,000,000
941,000
800,000 562,000
600,000
515,000 456,000
428,000
409,000
404,000
400,000
299,000
200,000
ed s Le
am br id ge C
ig ht on /H
ov e
to l is
Br
Br
xf or d O
la sg ow G
oo l Li
ve
rp
gh am rm in Bi
M an ch es te r
Ed i
nb ur gh
0
Source: International Passenger Survey, ONS & VisitBritain
Most Visited UK Destinations Figure 1 shows the cities that receive the largest volume of visits from international markets. It excludes London, which continues to attract the highest number of international visitors at 16.8 million. Manchester has consistently been positioned third on international visits since 2003, behind only the capital cities of London and Edinburgh. In 2013 it attracted almost 1 million overseas visitors, and up by over 50,000 on the 2012 figure of 932,000. The 988,000 visits to Manchester in 2013 provided significant demand for hotel rooms whilst the attributable expenditure benefitted businesses in the wider destination including; attractions, restaurants, bars, entertainment venues, shops and transportation services.
5 | Manchester Monitor – July 2014
As the number of flights into Manchester Airport increase (on existing or new routes) this provides an opportunity to increase passenger flows from visitor markets where activity is undertaken to drive inbound traffic. Manchester’s inbound overseas market has increased by 76% (430,000) since 2000. Over the same period London has seen the number of overseas visitors increase by 28%, while in Edinburgh the growth stands at 43%. Birmingham, Liverpool and Glasgow continue to move between the fourth, fifth and sixth positions and are all major competing cities for the overseas market to the UK, providing strong competition for Manchester’s share of the overseas visitor market.
Top 5 International Markets for GM The five markets that generate the highest volume of international visits to GM according to the 2013 data are Ireland, Germany, USA, Spain and Poland (see Figure 2). Combined, these countries generated 454,000 visits to GM in 2013, representing 39% of the total inbound market. This trend is widely influenced by GM’s product and appeal, its routes for serving the market and its level of activity and engagement within these markets. Ireland is consistently the largest market to GM, with 139,000 Irish visitors in 2013. There has been movement between Germany and USA for the second and third positions and between Spain, Poland and France for the fourth, fifth and sixth positions over the last three years.
Although France moved into fourth position in 2012 there has been a continued decrease in volume from its 2011 figure of 76,000 visits, to 68,000 visits in 2012, and to 56,000 in 2013. This is a decrease of 26% from 2011-2013 compared to an 8% increase of visitors from France for the same period for the UK as a whole. Figure 2 shows how GM’s top five markets compare to the UK as a whole. Germany, the USA and Ireland feature in both datasets with GM seeing higher significance from the Spanish and Polish markets and the UK, as a whole, with a higher incidence of French and Dutch visitors. Despite not featuring in the top five markets for GM, both France and Netherlands are still key to Greater Manchester, sitting in sixth and seventh position respectively.
Figure 2: Top 5 Inbound Markets to GM and the UK, 2013 Greater Manchester
UK
1
Ireland (139,000)
France (3.9 million)
2
Germany (93,000)
Germany (3.2 million)
3
USA (83,000)
USA (2.8 million)
4
Spain (74,000)
Ireland (2.4 million)
5
Poland (65,000)
Netherlands (1.9 million)
Source: International Passenger Survey, ONS & VisitBritain
Emerging Markets for GM The ten country markets that generated the highest number of visits to GM in 2013 represented 58% (675,000) of the total international inbound market. In 2012 the top ten countries accounted for 62% of all international visits, indicating a slightly wider spread across country markets in 2013. The figures show significant growth for the lower volume, but high potential, emerging markets. The BRICs market
(Brazil, Russia, India and China) although only representing 4% of the overall inbound market saw the volume of visitors increase by 59% on the 2012 figures (see Figure 3). The United Arab Emirates, Japan, New Zealand and Singapore are also additional markets that have a lower volume but are showing considerable potential through significant increases from 2012 to 2013.
Figure 3: Visitors to GM from Emerging Markets, 2013
8
Source: International Passenger Survey, ONS & VisitBritain
Manchester Monitor – July 2014 | 6
Purpose of International Visits The International Passenger Survey measures the purpose of international visits in the following categories; holiday, business, visiting friends and relatives, study and other. Figure 4 shows the countries that currently generate the highest volume of holiday visits and business visits. There is a higher dominance of key markets when looking at the holiday and business markets, compared to all international visits. The cumulative top 10 holiday visits account for 61% of the total holiday visits to Greater Manchester whilst the top 10 business visits account for 60% of the total business visits. This is compared to 58%, as previously mentioned, for all international inbound visits. Holiday Visits Australia has seen its visitor numbers more than double, from 9,000 in 2009 to 22,000 in 2013. This has resulted in it becoming the second largest market for holiday visits to GM. Also key to the generation of holiday visits, and within the top ten, are the Scandinavian markets of Norway and Sweden. Denmark has seen a decline in volume to 2010 levels and that has resulted in it moving out of the top 10.
If looking at the BRIC countries as a market segment, as a whole, holiday visits increased by 118% from 2012-13 with the highest growth being from the countries of Brazil and Russia. Business Visits Business visits are defined in the survey as anyone travelling in a business or official capacity for purposes related to their work/profession or in some other official capacity. The significant growth across all visits from the inbound markets of Japan and New Zealand, as previously mentioned, are being particularly fed by an increase in inbound business visits from these countries. In terms of the BRIC countries, business visits have grown significantly from China, India and Brazil but Russia has seen the opposite trend and generated a particularly small business visit market in 2013. While the BRIC markets as a whole saw 118% growth in holiday visits, business visits generated 53% growth in comparison from 2012-13.
Figure 4: Top 3 inbound markets for holiday and business visits, 2013 Holiday Visits
Business Visits
1
Ireland (25,000)
Germany (36,000)
2
Australia (22,000)
Poland (34,000)
3
Germany (21,000)
USA (33,000)
Source: International Passenger Survey, ONS & VisitBritain
Hotel Occupancy Hotel occupancy rates in Manchester city centre were recorded at 77% in May 2014, up from 75% 12 months previously. The average for GM as a whole in May 2014 was also 77%, an increase on the 2013 figure of 74%. It is also the first time GM occupancy matched the city centre rates for the month of May. Average weekday occupancy in Manchester city centre was 73% (compared to 72% in 2013), while it was 83% on weekends (compared to 79% in 2013). Occupancy peaks in the city centre during May are summarised below: • 98% on 14 May – occupancy was boosted by Miley Cyrus performing at the Phones 4U Arena. In addition, the British Insurance Brokers Association 2014 conference & exhibition was held at Manchester Central, attracting approximately 5,000 delegates.
7 | Manchester Monitor – July 2014
• 97% on 13 May – The night before the British Insurance Brokers Association conference & exhibition with an 8.30am start on the 14th. • 97% on 17 May – The night before the Great Manchester Run from Manchester city centre, as well as the Rugby Super League Magic Weekend at the Etihad Stadium. • 96% on 7 May – Manchester City hosting Aston Villa at the Etihad in their penultimate league match of the season, as well as Manchester Central hosting Green Expo Build 2014. In order to meet the growing demand for accommodation as a result of GM’s buoyant visitor economy, a substantial number of new hotel rooms are planned over the next two years. There are currently just over 7,000 hotel rooms in the city centre, with a further 1,895 confirmed in the pipeline due to be built. By the end of 2016 there will be almost 9,000 hotel rooms, an increase of 27% on current levels.
Airport Passenger Numbers Manchester Airport handled around 1.7 million passengers in April 2014 according to data from the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA). This represents an annual increase of 11.2%, or nearly 172,000 additional passengers. The late Easter holiday period is likely to have contributed to this substantial increase in the number of people passing through the Airport.
Summary Results from the International Passenger Survey confirm the importance of international visitors to the GM. Almost 1 million international visitors came to the area in 2013, generating nearly £0.5 billion for the economy. Ireland is consistently the largest market to GM, with 139,000 visitors, while Germany, USA, Spain and Poland complete the top five markets for visitors to GM.
For January to April 2014, passenger numbers at Manchester stand at 5.6 million. This is almost 240,000 higher (4.3%) than for the same time period 12 months previously.
The BRICs market (Brazil, Russia, India and China) although only representing a relatively small share of the market, has seen substantial growth in visitor numbers.
Comparator airports all saw annual increases in passenger numbers between April 2013 and 2014, with Birmingham seeing the highest growth at 16.8%. This was followed by Gatwick (15.5%), Stansted (10.7%) and Heathrow (6.7%).
With hotel occupancy and airport passenger numbers continuing to rise, a substantial number of new hotel rooms are planned over the next two years to meet growing demand. By the end of 2016 there will be almost 9,000 hotel rooms, an increase of 27% on current levels.
The May CAA data are expected to confirm further growth at Manchester Airport, coinciding with two bank holiday weekends and the school half-term break. May also saw the inaugural FlyNas to Jeddah flight, along with a brand new American Airlines’ flight to Charlotte, in North Carolina, one of the largest hubs in America. Jet2.com also launched its new service to Vienna in Austria, a previously unserved European capital city. The all time peak annual passenger number at Manchester Airport is 22 million. This was achieved seven years ago and there is growing confidence that it will be surpassed over the next 18 months if recent trends continue. In further good news for the Airport and the surrounding economy, Emirates has announced plans to create a new customer service centre in the area. The Dubai-based carrier has had a contact centre in Wilmslow since March 2000, and from September it will be relocating its base to Manchester Business Park, next to the Airport – housing around 300 of its staff.
Hotel occupancy (city centre)
(+2.0% pts)
Airport passenger numbers
(+11.2%)
76.7%
1,700,330
Hotel occupancy (GM)
Flights
(+2.4% pts)
76.6%
(1.4%)
13,125 % represents year-on-year change
IMPORTANT NOTE: The source of the hotel occupancy data referenced in this newsletter is STR Global Ltd. Republication or other reuse of this data without the express written permission of STR Global is strictly prohibited.
Manchester Monitor – July 2014 | 8
Housing Monitor GM Housing Market HOUSE PRICES May 2014: £106,031
£107,000
3,500
3,000
£105,000 2,500 £104,000 2,000
£103,000
HOUSE SALES March 2014: 2,663
£102,000
1,500
House Sales
Average House Price
£106,000
£101,000 1,000 £100,000 500
£99,000 £98,000 -12 May
0 Aug
-12
-12 Nov
-13 Feb
-13 May
-13 Aug
-13 Nov
-14 Feb
-1 May
4
House prices slowly moving upwards Land Registry data show that the average house in GM cost £106,000 in May 2014, an increase of 3.9% (£4,000) from this time last year. The rise is still below the increase in prices in England & Wales as a whole, where they grew by 6.7% (£10,800) on an annual basis to reach £172,000. House Prices House prices in the North West saw an annual rise of 1.3% (£1,500). This was below the GM increase, although the average cost of a property in the region remains higher than the conurbation at £110,000. At a local authority level, Trafford has the highest average property price at £187,000. With the exception of Tameside, all GM districts saw house price rises between May 2013 and 2014. Stockport (£11,400, or 8.3%), Salford (£7,800, or 9.0%), Oldham (£7,000, or 9.3%) and Trafford (£6,800, or 3.7%) saw the highest absolute rises. Tameside experienced a small decline of 0.7% (£700). House Sales There were 2,663 house sales in GM in March 2014, a rise of 25.6% (543) on the 2013 figure. This was higher than the annual increases seen in the North West (19.5%) and England & Wales (16.2%) over the same period.
9 | Manchester Monitor – July 2014
At a local authority level, Manchester saw the largest number of house sales in GM (405), followed by Stockport (367) and Wigan (297). The lowest number of house sales in GM were recorded in Rochdale (171) followed by Bury (180) and Bury (176). While the price and sales data indicate the housing market is returning to growth, figures from the Bank of England show the number of mortgages approved in the UK has fallen to its lowest level for almost a year. Around 61,700 mortgages were approved in May, down from 62,806 in April. The dip in May approvals follows the introduction of new lending rules in April under the Mortgage Market Review (MMR), forcing banks and building societies to undertake tougher affordability checks before they grant loans.
Crime Monitor Assault Attendances at GM Emergency Departments, by Age Group
6,714 6,610
3,495 3,637
1,573 1,668 683
649 320
0-14
15-29
30-44
May 2012-April 2013
45-59
386
60 and Over
May 2013-April 2014
Assault attendances continue to increase The latest figures in relation to assault attendances at each of GM’s eight hospital trusts’ local emergency departments show that there has been a year-on-year rise in the number of people being treated for assaults over the last twelve months.
Assaults Data Baseline data for the 12 months ending April 2014 show that 12,900 people were treated for assault related injuries over the last 12 months in GM hospitals, an increase of 1% on the figures from the previous year. This total is the lowest since July 2013 and represents a levelling off of the rise between late 2012 and that date. Decreases are now being noted in hospitals such as Wythenshawe, Manchester Royal Infirmary and Royal Bolton, and increases noted in hospitals such as Fairfield General, Rochdale Infirmary and North Manchester General. Analysing the data in further detail, in the 12 months to April 2014, 51% (6,610) of assault patients were aged 15–29. The same demographic comprises just 21.5% of the GM resident population as a whole according to the latest ONS
estimates, highlighting that 15–29 year olds remain particularly vulnerable to violence. However, the proportion of 15–29-year old victims is currently at some of its lowest levels since records began in 2009. In the period since then, the proportion of assault victims aged 30–59 has risen from the 2009 low of 37% to the current high of 40.9%, and those aged 60+ has also increased from 2.3% to a current high of 3%. Fire & Rescue Service Data GM Fire and Rescue Service data show that for the year ending 27 May 2014, deliberate fires in GM were recorded at 7,300. This compares to a figure of 8,725 for the previous year and represents an annual decline of 16.3% (1,400) in deliberate fires.
Manchester Monitor – July 2014 | 10
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