Manchester Monitor Quarterly October 2013
Economy on the up as crime falls
Jobseeker numbers fall again Businesses report rising activity Record August for hotel occupancy Airport passenger numbers still rising House prices continue to fall www.neweconomymanchester.com research@neweconomymanchester.com
Monitor Focus Economy on the up as crime falls The latest economic data for Greater Manchester (GM) offer
Manchester Airport continues to see year-on-year increases
signs of encouragement that things are slowly starting to
in passengers. It handled 2.3 million passengers in July
improve, with falling unemployment, increasing vacancy
2013, 94,000 higher (4.3%) than 12 months previously.
numbers, and higher levels of business activity. The number of people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) in GM has fallen for the sixth month in a row. The latest figures show there were 76,700 JSA claimants in GM in August 2013 – a decline of 2,000 (2.6%) compared to July 2013. In further positive news, the number of youth (16–24) JSA claimants in GM was recorded at 20,300 as of August 2013 – 18.2% (4,500) lower than this time last year. Long-term claimants (6 months +) are also falling, down to 36,700 in August, an annual decline of 5.1% (2,000). In a new dataset this month for the Manchester Monitor, information on vacancies in GM is now available via Labour Insight – an online database of job postings (including those at Jobcentre Plus) across England. The database shows that there were 21,200 job openings in GM in August 2013, up by almost a quarter (4,200) on the same month last year. The highest proportion of vacancies were in professional occupations (27.1%, or 5,700), followed by associate professional & technical roles (21.3%, 4,500). The findings from the latest English Business Survey from the Department for Business Innovation and Skills (BIS) show that almost half of GM businesses reported higher levels of activity in the second quarter of the year compared to the first three months of 2013. In addition, 39% of firms in GM were expecting activity to increase in Q3. Analysis on the commercial property market by Cushman & Wakefield
The GM housing market continues to show few signs of any movement in terms of price increases, with Land Registry data showing that the average cost of a house in the conurbation fell by 1.9% (£2,000) between August 2012 and 2013. A typical property now costs just over £102,000. In contrast property prices in England & Wales grew by 1.3% (£2,100) between August 2012 and 2013 – the largest annual rise since November 2010 – and the average house price nationally now stands at almost £165,000. Rental data show that there were around 5,400 houses for rent in GM via estate agents in June 2013, up by nearly 1,200 (27.3%) on the same time last year. An average 3-bed house costs around £660 per calendar month to rent. There were also around 5,700 apartments for rent in GM during June (up by 14.4% or 720 annually), with a typical 2-bed property costing £650 per calendar month. Rental levels for both houses and apartments in GM remained fairly constant on a quarterly and annual basis. This edition of the Manchester Monitor Quarterly includes a detailed feature on falling crime numbers in GM. In Autumn 2009, the statistics showed that there were in excess of 20,000 victims of crime per month on average. Four years later, this figure has reduced by approximately a quarter and the feature takes a look at the statistics in more detail in order to understand which crime types have fallen.
(C&W) shows that prime rents for office space in Manchester
The detailed analysis of crime data shows that reductions in
city centre remained at £30 per sq. ft for the three months
criminal damage and arson, and in the burglary, other theft,
to June 2013, and C&W note that the regional UK office
and vehicle offences sub-categories of ‘theft’ are largely
market is starting to build some momentum, helped by
responsible for the overall fall in crime figures. In particular,
improving business sentiment and stronger economic
theft offences in GM declined by 26,000 from 2009 to 2013.
indicators.
While crime has fallen over the last four years, the number
The latest data on hotels reveal that Manchester city centre achieved its highest August occupancy figure to date of 77%, with a number of high-profile events such as the Ashes test match between England and Australia at Old Trafford helping to attract visitors to the area. Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) data on airport passenger numbers highlight that
of incidents reported to GMP has remained relatively consistent. Across the period, numbers of recorded incidents fell by only 2%. The reason for the relatively small decline (compared to the 26% drop in crime volumes) lies in the rise in the number of calls to the police relating to public safety and welfare issues (including domestic incidents), as well as requests for information.
1 | Manchester Monitor – October 2013
Monitor Dashboard Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) claimants
Airport Passengers
9.9%
4.3%
since last year
since May 2012
Business Indicator (levels of output)
Hotel Occupancy
47% of GM firms reported higher levels of activity in Q2 2013 when compared to Q1.
House Prices
11%pts on August 2012
Crime Volume
Average house price in GM: £102,171
8.8% since August 2012
Manchester Monitor – October 2013 | 2
People Monitor Jobseeker numbers fall for 6th month in a row. The number of people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) in Greater Manchester (GM) has fallen for the sixth month in a row. The latest figures show there were 76,700 JSA claimants in GM in August 2013 – a decline of 2,000 (2.6%) compared to July 2013, and above the declines in the North West (2.5%) and Great Britain (2.2%). Though as a proportion of the resident working-age population, 4.4% of people in GM were claiming JSA in August, higher than the North West (3.9%) and Great Britain (3.3%).
JSA Claimants
Vacancies
The number of male JSA claimants in GM fell on a monthly
In a new dataset this month for the Manchester Monitor,
basis by 3.7% (1,900) to 50,100, while the number of female
information on vacancies in GM is now available via Labour
claimants also fell but only by 0.5% (100 to 26,500). On an
Insight (which New Economy holds access to on behalf of
annual basis, male JSA claimants are 11.9% lower (a decline
AGMA) – an online database of job postings (including those
of 6,800) and female claimants have fallen by 5.8%
at Jobcentre Plus) across England. It provides statistics on
(a decline of 1,600).
vacancies broken down into areas such as occupation type and skills requirements.
Youth unemployment (JSA claimants aged 16–24) in GM decreased on a monthly basis between July and August,
Labour Insight reveals that there were 21,200 job openings
falling by approximately 500 to around 20,300. On an annual
in GM in August 2013, up by almost one quarter (4,200) on
basis, the number of youth JSA claimants is now 18.2%
the same month last year. The highest proportion of
(4,500) lower than this time last year, similar to that for the
vacancies were in professional occupations (27.1% or
North West (18.7% fall) and Great Britain (18.6% decrease).
5,700), followed by associate professional & technical roles (21.3%, 4,500). Just over 13,000 of the vacancies in GM in
There was a decline in long-term (6 months+) claimants in GM in August 2013 to 36,700, a monthly fall of 700 (1.8%).
August were in Manchester, followed by Stockport (1,500), and Bolton and Wigan (both 1,200).
On an annual basis, the number of long-term claimants is now 5.1% (2,000) lower than this time last year, though
The top three detailed occupation types in GM in August
lagging the declines seen in the North West (7.2%) and Great
2013 were: programmers & software development
Britain (7.0%).
professionals (800 postings); nurses (700 vacancies); and HR & industrial relations officers (600 postings).
Total Jobseeker’s Allowance Claimants in August 2013
Jobseeker’s Allowance - Annual Change
$5.8%
$11.9% $18.2%
$5.1%
76,700 Decreased by 9.9% year-on-year
Women
3 | Manchester Monitor – October 2013
Men
Youth
Long-term
Business Monitor Don’t know, 4%
Lower, 15%
Q2 business activity compared with Q1 in GM
Lower, 12%
Higher, 47%
Higher, 20%
Q2 employment compared with Q1 in GM
The same, 34% The same, 69%
Businesses report rising activity The findings from the latest English Business Survey (EBS) from the Department for Business Innovation and Skills (BIS) offer encouragement that the economy is starting to pick up, with almost half of GM businesses reporting higher levels of activity in the second quarter of the year compared to the first three months of 2013.
English Business Survey
Commercial Property Market
In total, 47% of GM businesses surveyed stated that their level of business activity or volume of output in Q2 2013 was higher than in Q1. This increasing level of activity was in line with the results for the North West and England. In addition, 39% of firms in GM were expecting activity to increase in Q3, which was also similar to the regional and national averages.
Cushman & Wakefield (C&W) has released its second quarter 2013 analysis of the commercial property market. Analysis of the figures shows that prime rents for office space in Manchester remained at £30 per sq. ft for the three months to June 2013. C&W notes that the regional UK office market is starting to build some momentum, helped by improving business sentiment and stronger economic indicators.
Around 20% of GM businesses said that employment had risen in Q2, and 69% stated that it had remained the same over the quarter. Looking ahead, 18% of GM firms expected employment to rise over the next quarter, with 70% believing it would remain stable. The employment picture for the North West and England was similar to that of GM, with the rise in activity not yet being translated into substantial growth in job numbers.
Turning to the industrial market, rents in Manchester have stood at £5.50 per sq. ft since Q3 2010. Nationally, the logistics sector continues to be a driver of demand, with supermarkets, large department stores, online retailers, third party logistics providers, and parcel delivery firms all competing for suitable space to meet the demands of internet trading as the sector continues to develop and evolve. Reflecting the importance of the sector, New Economy is in the process of commissioning a study to look at the long-term future of logistics in GM.
Manchester Monitor – October 2013 | 4
Place Monitor Record August for Hotel Occupancy The latest data on hotels reveal that Manchester city centre achieved its highest August occupancy figure to date, with a number of high-profile events helping to attract visitors to the area. Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) data on airport passenger numbers are also positive, with Manchester Airport once again seeing an annual increase in the number of passengers.
Hotel Occupancy
Airport Passenger Numbers
Hotel occupancy rates in Manchester city centre were recorded at 77% in August 2013, up from 66% on the previous year, and representing the highest level of August occupancy since average monthly reporting began in 2000. Weekend occupancy in the city centre averaged 82% during the month, up from 75% in August 2012. The weekday average occupancy in the city centre was 74%, compared to 62% last year.
Manchester Airport handled 2.3 million passengers in July 2013, 94,000 higher (4.3%) than 12 months previously. This was slightly below the growth seen at Heathrow (5.5%) and Gatwick (5.4%), but above that of Birmingham (2.9%) and Stansted (2.5% decline).
For GM as a whole, average occupancy rates in August were 78%, a rise of 11 percentage points compared to the previous 12 months. Key dates for hotel occupancy in the city centre during August were: • 3 August – 94% occupancy achieved, coinciding with the Ashes cricket test at Old Trafford between England and Australia. • 26 August – 93% occupancy, boosted by Manchester United playing at home in the Premier League. • 24 August – 91% occupancy, helped by Manchester hosting the annual Pride Festival during the Bank Holiday weekend. Hotel occupancy in GM should continue to be strong over the coming months, with major events such as the Conversative Party Conference and Premier League and European football attracting substantial visitor numbers. The Tory Party Conference alone is expected to have attracted 12,000 delegates and generated £24.6million for the local economy.
Airport passenger numbers
(+4.3%)
The high passenger numbers for July are a reflection of the traditionally busy summer months, with the top five foreign destinations for summer 2013 being Palma, Amsterdam, Dubai, Alicante and Dalaman. The flight programme is expected to support further growth, with a number of airlines announcing new winter sun destinations. This includes Thomas Cook Airlines adding three new long-haul services to St Lucia, Antigua, and Barbados from November, which makes Manchester the only airport outside of London to fly to St Lucia during winter 2013. “Fly Manchester” is also continuing as the Airport seeks to win back the estimated four million passengers from its catchment area that travel by road/rail to London airports. The programme, run by the Airport, is now in its fourth phase, which will run until early November and includes promotional campaigns in Staffordshire to boost awareness about routes from Manchester. There are currently more than 300,000 people in Staffordshire travelling via other airports such as Heathrow and Gatwick (160,000 combined), when many of the same routes are available more closely and more readily from Manchester.
Hotel occupancy (city centre)
2,274,944
77%
Flights
Hotel occupancy (GM)
(+2.2%)
15,292
79%
% represents year-on-year change IMPORTANT NOTE: The source of the hotel occupancy data referenced in this newsletter is STR Global Ltd. Republication or other reuse of this data without the express written permission of STR Global is strictly prohibited.
5 | Manchester Monitor – October 2013
(11% pts)
(+11% pts)
Housing Monitor % Change in House Prices, August 2012-13 2.0%
1.5% (£2,188) England & Wales (1.3%, £2,052)
1.0% 0.2% (£316) 0.0%
-1.0%
-0.8% (£-985) -1.5% (-£1,610)
-2.0%
-1.9% (-£1,953)
-2.1% (-£2,264)
-2.4% (-£2,487)
-3.0% Cheshire West & Chester
Cheshire East
Cumbria
North West
Greater Manchester
Lancashire
Merseyside
GM housing market continues to struggle Land Registry data show that the average cost of a house in GM fell by 1.9% (£2,000) between August 2012 and 2013. A typical property now costs just over £102,000. Across the North West as a whole there are very few areas that have seen annual price rises. House Prices
Rental Market
Property prices in England & Wales grew by 1.3% (£2,100) between August 2012 and 2013 – and the average property price nationally now stands at almost £165,000. The annual rise was the largest since November 2010.
The latest housing rental data show that there were around 5,400 properties for rent in GM via estate agents in June 2013, up by nearly 1,200 (27.3%) on the same time last year.
The year-on-year decline in prices in GM was mirrored in Cumbria (-0.8%), Lancashire (-2.1%), and Merseyside (2.4%). Cheshire West & Chester (1.5%) and Cheshire East (0.2%) were the only parts of the North West where house prices increased from between August 2012 and 2013. London continues to see the largest house price rises of any region, with annual increases of 7.1% to reach, nearly £389,000 by August 2013. The last time it saw prices fall on a yearly basis was in September 2009.
A typical 2-bed house can be rented for about £500 per calendar month in GM, rising to just over £660 for 3-bed properties and just over £1,000 per calendar month for a 4bed house. Rental levels in the housing market appear to be fairly stable, with minimal change on a quarterly and annual basis. Apartment rental data show that there were around 5,700 properties for rent in GM via estate agents in June 2013, an increase of 720 (14.4%) on the corresponding figure for 2012. A typical studio apartment can be rented in GM for about £449 per calendar month, just over £500 for a 1-bed property, over £650 for a 2-bed property and over £1,000 for a 4-bed property. As with houses these rental levels have remained fairly constant both over the year and last quarter.
Manchester Monitor – October 2013 | 6
Crime Monitor Ongoing fall in crime in GM Reductions in crime (recorded by Greater Manchester Police) have been sustained now over a number of years. In autumn 2009, the statistics showed that there were in excess of 20,000 victims of crime per month on average. Four years later, the figure has reduced by approximately a quarter and this quarterly feature takes a look at the statistics in more detail in order to understand which crime types have fallen. Introduction The increasingly accepted view, reinforced by government statistics and reports in the mainstream media, is that crime across the UK is falling. This view is certainly represented in the data for GM, however it is useful to look at the statistics in more detail in order to understand which crime types have fallen. This issue has been considered by looking at three main themes:
Statistics relating to these three elements were “indexed” in order to compare trends over time from Autumn 2009 to the present. Figure 1 shows the steady decline in the Greater Manchester crime figure over the last four years, although calls to the police have remained steady with regular peaks in the summer months.
• the constituent crime types that make up the overall crime figure; • the level of demand for policing services; and • public perceptions of crime.
Figure 2 charts the reduction in antisocial behaviour (ASB) and the similar reduction in the related public perceptions.
Figure 1: Indexed Values of Crime & Demand in GM, 2009-13
Figure 2: Indexed Values of ASB & Perception of ASB in GM, 2009-13
110
115
Indexed Value
Indexed Value
100 105 95 85 75
90 80 70 60 50 40
65 Sep-09
30 Jun-10
Mar-11
Dec-11
Sep-12
Jun-13
Time Total crimes (indexed value) Linear (Total crimes (indexed value))
Demand Figures (indexed value)
20 Sep-09
Jun-10
Mar-11
Dec-11
Sep-12
Jun-13
Time High ASB perceptions (indexed value)
ASB Incidents
Crime Types Crime has decreased across GM from an initial level of 20,000 crimes per month in Autumn 2009 to 15,000 crimes in Summer 2013, an overall reduction of 26% or around 58,000 crimes per year. All police forces in England and Wales use a common ‘crime tree’ for categorising the crimes that they record. At the headline level, crimes are broken down into one of four categories: victim-based crime, fraud, hate incidents, and other crimes against society.
7 | Manchester Monitor – October 2013
Victim-based crime accounts for 84% of the reduction seen since 2009, as shown in Figure 3. Each of the constituent parts of victim-based crime: theft offences, criminal damage and arson, violence against the person, robbery, and sexual offences - are also reducing over time. These reductions have been largely driven by the falling number of theft offences (accounting for 53% of the annualised reduction), and to a lesser extent by a similar trend in criminal damage and arson crimes.
Theft offences contains six further sub-categories relating to burglary, other theft offences (which include a variety of theft offences including making-off without payment, and some metal theft), vehicle offences, shoplifting, theft from the person, and bicycle theft. These first three strands make up the vast majority of the crimes in this category and all show substantial decreases in volume. It is notable that the remaining three offences not only contribute little to the overall picture, but also remain relatively level over the period. It should also be noted that,
despite a heavy initial fall, vehicle offences have remained relatively steady for the past two years. It is therefore evident that the reductions in criminal damage and arson, and in the burglary, other theft, and vehicle offences sub-categories of ‘theft’ are largely responsible for the overall fall in crime figures. In particular, theft offences in GM declined by 26,000 from 2009 to 2013.
Figure 3: Reduction in GM Theft Offences, 2009-13
9,400
58,000 fewer crimes in Greater Manchester in 2012-13 than 2009-10, including...
fewer vehicle related theft offences,
26,000 fewer theft offences, including...
6,100 fewer burglaries,
9,300 fewer ‘other theft’ offences
Incident Reporting As detailed above, crime has fallen over the past four years, however the number of incidents reported to GM Police (GMP), has remained relatively consistent. Across the period, numbers of recorded incidents fell by just 2% (see Figure 4) compared to crime which fell by 26%. Within this, incidents related to antisocial behaviour (including reports of rowdy or inconsiderate behaviour, malicious or nuisance communications, inappropriate vehicle use, and neighbour-related incidents) fell by 28%. This raises a question about the types of incidents being reported to the police. The answer to the question posed lies in the nature of calls being made to the police, with rises in certain types of call offsetting declines elsewhere. This is shown in Figure 4 as:
• other policing, which includes requests for information, multiple reporting of the same incident, lost and found property and enquiries made with good intent where the reporting person is subsequently found to be mistaken. These incidents also rose by 6% across the period. In total, these two categories accounted for almost three quarters of police recorded incidents across the period – a total of more than 2.8 million. This has risen year-on-year both in terms of the absolute number of incidents and the proportion of all incidents. This, alongside a steady increase in the number of transport-related incidents, has meant that the total number of incidents reported has remained steady in spite of falling crime numbers.
• public safety and welfare, which includes domestic incidents, incidents of concerns for safety and reports of suspicious circumstances which rose by 6% across the period; and
Manchester Monitor – October 2013 | 8
Figure 4: Police Recorded Incidents in GM, 2009-13 100,000
2% Overall
75,000
4%
50,000
6%
25,000
6%
0
28%
Sept 2009 ASB
Public Safety & Welfare
Aug 2013
Other policing
Transport
Perceptions 3% of respondents in Spring 2013. This represents a total reduction of 73% on the initial figure. The greatest reductions in ASB were made from the final quarter of 2009 to the first quarter of 2012, after which the rate of reduction has levelled off (see Figure 5).
The percentage of GM residents that reported high levels of antisocial behaviour (ASB) in their area in response to a local survey administered by GMP has reduced at a steady and noticeable rate across the period. From an initial high of 11.2% of respondents in the final quarter of 2009, the figure reduced to the current low of
Figure 5: % High Anti-social Behaviour Perceptions across GM, 2009-13 12%
Highest level of ASB: 11.2%
10%
8%
Perception of ASB at between 3% & 4% from final quarter of 2011 onwards
6%
4%
2%
9 | Manchester Monitor – October 2013
13 -1 4 Q 1
12 -1 3 Q 4
12 -1 3 Q 3
12 -1 3 Q 2
12 -1 3 Q 1
11 -1 2
12
Financial Year
Q 4
11 Q 3
11 -1 2 Q 2
11 -1 2
-1 1 10 Q 4
Q 1
-1 1 10 Q 3
10 -1 1 Q 2
10
10 -1 1 Q 1
09 Q 4
Q 3
09 -
10
0%
using/dealing drugs and teenagers hanging around) have all seen declines since 2009, however it should be noted that in each of the top three areas the proportion of people in GM still believing there to be a problem is above 10% for each type of ASB (see Figure 6)
Levels of concern across all ASB perception categories have fallen by at least half over the four year period, with concerns on some issues, such as problems with abandoned cars and vandalism reducing by an even greater extent. In this respect, ASB perception reduction can be deemed successful. The top three areas of concern (rubbish/litter,
Figure 6: Top 3 categories in GM where people report high levels of ASB
% Respondents reporting high ASB
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% Q3 09-10
Q1 10-11
Q3 10-11
Q1 11-12
Q3 11-12
Q1 12-13
Q3 12-13
Q1 13-14
Financial Year Rubbish/litter
Using/dealing drugs
Teenagers hanging around
Summary Analysis of data from GMP shows that the relationship between levels of crime and the number of incidents reported is complex, and therefore the implications for police resourcing are not straightforward. Crime in GM fell from 20,000 crimes per month in Autumn 2009 to 15,000 crimes in Summer 2013, an overall reduction of 26% or around 58,000 crimes per year. Analysing the crime data in further detail, reductions in criminal damage and arson, and in the burglary, other theft, and vehicle offences sub-categories of ‘theft’ are largely responsible for the overall fall in crime figures. In particular, theft offences in GM declined by 26,000 from 2009 to 2013.
While crime has fallen over the last four years, the number of incidents reported to GMP has remained relatively consistent. Across the period, numbers of recorded incidents fell by only 2%. The reason for the relatively small decline (compared to the 26% drop in crime volumes) lies in the rise in the number of calls to the police relating to public safety and welfare issues (including domestic incidents), as well as requests for information. Note – The regular crime and fire data that are normally in each edition of the Manchester Monitor are available to download at: neweconomymanchester.com/stories/1752
The percentage of GM residents that reported high levels of ASB fell between 2009 and 2013, from 11.2% to 3% for April-June 2013. Breaking ASB down by type, the three main areas of concern continue to be rubbish/litter, using/dealing drugs and teenagers hanging around.
Manchester Monitor – October 2013 | 10