V1 1 16 19 skills sep public[1] by New Economy

16-19 Education and Training in Greater Manchester 2012

A report for

Greater Manchester Skills and Employment Partnership

Submitted February 2013

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CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................3 1

INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................5

POLICY AND ECONOMIC CONTEXT ......................................................7

PARTICIPATION .....................................................................................21

PROVISION .............................................................................................30

PERFORMANCE.....................................................................................49

PROGRESSION ......................................................................................57

CONCLUSIONS ......................................................................................68

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1. CONTEXT Education and training between the ages of 16 and 19 is an essential phase of a young persons preparation for the world of work. Although a young person may not transition straight in to work at age 19, research has shown that their experience at this stage has a demonstrable effect on future life time employment and earnings prospects. Since 2010, there have been significant changes to the UK’s education policy, which has moved toward focusing on “core knowledge and content”; “giving schools and colleges more freedom from local control”; “giving parents more choice and improving vocational education”. Wide-ranging reforms to welfare will impact on young people who fail to progress into work or education, whether this is at 16 or later these factors have implications for the provision of education and training to the 16-19 age group in Greater Manchester (GM), and introduce an urgency to its improvement. The recession adds an imperative to dealing with long-term skills issues in GM. In the context of the recession, the challenge in terms of skills lies in both meeting the new challenges posed by economic and fiscal contraction, but also in recognising and remedying the structural and frictional youth unemployment problems which predate the recession. Structural change means that this generation is far more likely to be employed in modern and competitive service sectors. To find work in GM’s growing industries, young people will increasingly need a higher level of skill, both formal qualifications and “soft” skills.

2. PARTICIPATION In GM around 30,000 pupils reach the end of Key Stage 4 each year, and the vast majority go into education or training. Almost 80% of those leaving compulsory education go directly on to education or training, half of whom go into FE colleges, a quarter of whom go into sixth form colleges. The number participating drops off between 16 and 18 with a rise in the number classed as NEET and Not Known. Disadvantaged groups are more likely to be NEET. 16-18 year olds with Learning Difficulties or Disabilities (LDD) are more likely to be NEET or Not Known than the cohort as a whole, and as might be expected, teenage mothers participation in education is low. GM performs better than regionally or nationally in terms of the offers made under the September Guarantee policy, with only two districts underperforming the national rate, which will be crucial in the context of Raising the Participation Age (RPA)

3. PROVISION Level of provision differs by type of institution: almost all 16-19 learners in School Sixth Forms (SSF) are studying at Level 3 (as would be expected in institutions which focus on A-levels); however this corresponding figure for FE providers is two-thirds, a proportion which has risen over the last three years. There are however large numbers of learners studying at a level lower than Level 2, which raises concerns about the quality of Key Stage 4 provision. Almost 90% of EFA funded learners aged 16-19 in education are provided for by the FE sector, however there have been increases in the numbers aged under 19 taking Apprenticeships in recent years, with starts increasing by more than two-thirds in two years, and account for 12.7% of provision; 22.5% of Apprenticeships delivered to this age group are at Level 3. However, provisional data suggests that Apprenticeship starts have started to fall back. Young people’s travel to learn patterns vary by level, with the propensity to travel higher at higher levels. There are also major movements at higher levels from Rochdale to Bury and Oldham, and from Manchester to both Stockport and Trafford and vice versa. Learning patterns differ by learner characteristics. Three quarters are white/British, and there are differences in provision when both gender and ethnicity are factored in. A very small proportion of learners have a statement of Special Educational Needs (SEN), but far more have Learning Difficulties or Disabilities (LDD) at 16.2%; when taken together almost half study at Level 3 (higher

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than the average for all learners). Almost one in ten FE learners has a disability with more than half of these at Level 3 (again more than the average).One in twenty SSF learners are FSMeligible, while 44.7% of FE learners are disadvantaged, these learners are far more likely to be studying at a lower level. On all of these measures there is a degree of variation between districts however. Provision is far more diverse in FE than in SSF: The vast majority of SSF aims are GCE A/AS/A2 levels: while in FE these make up only a third, with Awards, Diplomas and Functional Skills together taking up another third – these have all seen substantial increases over the last three years, while notably NVQ/GNVQ aims have fallen. GM attainment of Level 2 by age 19 is comparable with regional and national averages at approximately 81%, having closed the gap with national performance in the last three years. The gap between learners eligible for Free School Meals (FSM) and those not is larger in GM than nationally, though smaller than the North West as a whole. In terms of attainment of Level 2 including English and maths, GM performs comparably with the country as a whole. GM’s performance in this regard has again shown a substantial improvement in closing the gap with the national performance to the 0.1 percentage point where it currently stands. The gap between FSM and non-FSM pupils is larger when English and maths are included, and is a larger gap than seen nationally. Over half (52.8%) of GM’s 19 year olds in 2011 had attained a Level 3, which is less than regionally or nationally. By FSM eligibility, GM’s non-FSM pupils are only slightly poorer performing than nationally, while its FSM eligible pupils fall behind those in the country as a whole by a larger margin, leaving a gap between FSM and non-FSM in GM larger than nationally. GM has a slightly lower proportion attaining top A*-A grades at A-level than England’s maintained sector. This is lower than the total national average however, and the rate has fallen and the gap with national performance has increased in the three years to 2011/12. Success and retention rates are higher in most districts and most saw improvement. Success rates in GM exceed the national average in almost all of the ten districts, and most saw an improvement over the three year period; while retention rates were higher than nationally in seven of the ten districts, and rates improved over the three year period in six districts.

4. PROGRESSION GM has a vast HE resource which could be used more. Despite improvements, GM residents’ participation in Higher Education (HE) is failing to capitalise on the vast HE resource within the conurbation, particularly amongst the most deprived; the local impact of tuition fees is as yet unknown. GM’s young people need formal qualifications, experience and soft skills in order to progress successfully into work. If they enter work young people tend to work in flexible, casual sectors and in occupations with low levels of responsibility and skill. Employers report that GM’s young people are particularly poorly prepared for work at various stages of leaving education, which in the context of shifting skills demand is of great concern. GM has a high proportion of both job-seeking unemployed and inactive young people, and while the former have risen in number significantly since the recession, there has long been a persistent level of youth worklessness in GM.

5. KEY MESSAGES This analysis suggests a number of areas where there is a need for a policy response:      

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ensuring a smooth progression from compulsory education; increasing participation, including preparing for RPA and delivering new duties relating to those with SEN (up to age 25); narrowing gaps in achievement and progression; ensuring that supply and demand meets future labour market requirements; supporting the increased take up of apprenticeships; and ensuring an effective transition to employment and further study.

1 INTRODUCTION 1.1

This report provides an analysis of 16-19 education and training in Greater Manchester (GM), assessing recent trends in participation, provision, performance and progression. Its purpose is to provide a sound foundation – in the light of the current and forecast economic climate and significant changes to the policy and funding environment – for identifying priorities for 16-19 education and training. These priorities will then guide the actions that providers, local authorities and their partners take over the next 12 months to ensure that the mix and balance of provision ensures GM has the flow of skilled young people it needs to grow its economy and that every young person fulfils their potential.

1.2

Local authorities have a duty to secure the provision of suitable education and training to meet the needs of young people between the age of 16 and 19 (and in the case of young people with a learning difficulty assessment between the age of 16 and 25), including those subject to youth detention in the area. In GM, this duty has been placed on the Combined Authority through the GM Post-16 Education and Training Protocol. The document is designed specifically to support the discharge of the statutory duties placed on local authorities and the Combined Authority around 16-19 education and training.

1.3

National guidance states that in order to carry out their duty, local authorities should:        

fulfil a wider leadership role for education up to age 19; shape provision through undertaking a strategic overview of provision and needs, including identifying gaps, enabling new provision and developing the market; develop partnerships with providers, the EFA and NAS which may agree to reshape provision in an area by re-allocating numbers from one provider to another; secure local provision which meets the needs of young people and employers; influence and shape the provision on offer and help to develop and improve the education and training market; promote any necessary structural change in the local education and training system; support the improvement of the quality of the education and training of young people aged 16-19, and support employer needs, economic growth and community development.

1.4

Statutory guidance also states that there may be exceptional circumstances where lagged learner numbers may not be appropriate and local authorities and their partners have a role in identifying the exceptional cases.

1.5

In Greater Manchester it has been agreed that the Skills and Employment Partnership should: 



issue the strategic overview of provision and needs, including identifying gaps, and developing the market, in order to deliver the GM 16-19 education and training priorities; commission provision for LDD students and Youth Offenders

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   1.6

work with national partners including SFA, NAS, and SFA to develop the strategic overview of provision; work with those same partners to monitor the performance of providers in meeting the strategic objectives; and set up a governance structure to deliver the above. The 10 local authorities should:

  

lead local partnerships, and dialogue with providers based in their area; support the work of the Partnership by feeding back their local knowledge and needs to inform the GM strategic overview, and the monitoring of performance; and provide membership and expertise for the various boards and groups.

1.7

In addition, AGMA has an agreement with the EFA that the duty for local authorities to secure the provision of boarding accommodation for young people with a learning difficulty assessment between the age of 16 and 25 will be discharged at a subregional level. To deliver this, the GMCA is piloting the implementation of the agreed new framework entitled “Learning for Living and Work”.

1.8

The main aim of the report is to provide a comprehensive strategic overview of provision and needs to support the discharge of these duties. It has six substantive sections, as set out below.      

First, the key changes to government education policy are outlined, and a broad economic and demographic context is provided. Second, trends in the participation of 16-19 year olds in education and training are outlined. Third, patterns and key trends of education and training delivery are provided. Fourth, key performance measures for young people are analysed. Fifth, trends in progression on to further education and training or into work are presented. Finally, the report provides a set of conclusions based on this analysis.

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2 POLICY AND ECONOMIC CONTEXT 2.1

16-19 provision in 2012 takes place in a complex and challenging environment, with significant changes to policy and the ongoing economic difficulties impacting on the prospects of young people. This section summarises these changes and what they mean for young people going forward.

KEY POINTS: 

Since 2010, the UK’s education policy has moved toward focusing on core knowledge and content; giving schools, colleges and providers more freedom from local authority control; and giving parents more choice and improving vocational education. At the same time government has confirmed its intention to raise the participation age to 18 from summer 2015, and has moved to funding provision based on lagged learner numbers. These reforms require voluntary cooperation and intelligence-led coordination in both schools, colleges and providers, and at a level of geography which both reflects and influences the decisions made by learners and providers.



Despite changes to their remits, local authorities (and in GM the Combined Authority) still have to fulfil a wider leadership role for education by influencing and shaping provision, developing partnerships with providers and key partners, promoting any necessary structural change in the local education and training system, supporting the improvement of the quality of the education and training, and supporting employer needs, economic growth and community development.



Welfare reform will impact on young people who fail to progress into work or education, and whether this is at 16 or later, these changes have implications for provision, and add an urgency to improving the education and training of 16-19 age group in Greater Manchester (GM) to keep up with the needs of the economy.



The Manchester Independent Economic Review, the Greater Manchester Strategy and the Greater Manchester Growth Plan all underpin GM’s approach to skills, as taken forward by the Skills and Employment Partnership. GM attaches a high priority to improving the life chances of young people, and to providing the skills they need to succeed in and contribute to the conurbation’s economy.



However the economic climate will determine the career prospects for many young people, and the recession has had an acute and immediate impact which, if unresolved, will scar young people’s life chances. The challenge in terms of skills lies in both meeting the new challenges posed by economic and fiscal contraction, but also in recognising and remedying the structural and frictional youth unemployment problems which predate the recession.



Structural change to GM’s economy means that this generation of young people is far more likely to be employed in modern and competitive sectors. To find work in GM’s growing industries, young people will increasingly need a higher level of skill, to work in occupations with higher levels of specialism and responsibility. Crucially this means not only developing formal qualifications, but also the skills and experience in which young people are naturally disadvantaged.

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Education Policy 2.2

In The Education Act, 2011 the Government outlined wide-ranging and substantial reforms to the system of education provision in the UK, guided by the three principles of freedom, responsibility and fairness. In overarching terms: 

re-focusing the curriculum on core knowledge and content;



giving schools and colleges more influence on the qualifications they offer students (whether Diplomas, Baccalaureate, A levels, GCSEs or IGCSEs);



offering parents more choice with the expansion of Academies and the Free School programme; and



improving the quality of vocational education (including creating new Technical Academies).

2.3

There have been significant changes to the commissioning and funding for education and training. The nature of commissioning has been changed by withdrawing the National Commissioning Framework, and Local Authorities are identified as providing vital role in identifying gaps in provision, enabling new provision and developing the market.

2.4

There have been changes to the provision and responsibilities around careers guidance. There is now a duty on schools, pupil referral units and special schools to secure access to impartial and independent careers guidance for every pupil in Years 9 to 11. Local authorities retain a statutory duty to ‘encourage, enable or assist young people to participate in education or training’ – this is mainly focused on support for targeted and vulnerable young people pre- and post-16.

2.5

Local Authorities also have responsibility to maintain Client Caseload Information System (CCIS1) data via Connexions services. This holds a range of information on young people aged 13 to 19 years in order to assess progress in local areas on a range of measures, including reducing the number of young people Not in Education, Employment or Training (NEET).

2.6

Schools and colleges will now be funded based on the previous year’s student enrolments. So called “lagged learner” funding has been introduced to simplify the planning process.

2.7

The Academies programme initiated under the previous government has been modified and extended. These are schools which operate independent of local authority control and are directly funded by central government. While in many ways a continuation of previous policy, there have been fundamental alterations made: all primary and secondary schools are now invited to apply for status and priority is given to the best schools, while those performing less well are invited to apply as formal partnerships with better schools. In addition the Coalition Government has dropped the requirement for a sponsor – developing the so called “Converter” Academies. The appeal to schools lies in the possibility of: freedom from local authority control; the ability to set their own pay and conditions for staff; freedoms around the delivery of the

CCIS records every individual contact and group session contacts for Connexions clients and parents

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curriculum; and the ability to change the lengths of terms and school days. As of November 2012, there are 2,373 Academies open in England. In GM there are 33 Sponsor Academies with four more planned and 63 Converter Academies, with six more planned – if all current plans are approved there will be 106 Academies in GM in total, as summarised in Table 1 below, and in. Table 1: Academies in Greater Manchester by type – as at beginning of November 2012 CONVERTER ACADEMIES SPONSOR ACADEMIES TOTAL TOTAL SCHOOLS APPROVED PLANNED EXISTING PLANNED ACADEMIES Bolton 132 7 0 4 0 11 Bury 90 2 0 0 0 2 Manchester 209 8 3 14 2 27 Oldham 121 6 0 4 1 11 Rochdale 117 6 0 1 0 7 Salford 123 5 1 5 0 11 Stockport 138 4 0 1 0 5 Tameside 106 6 1 2 0 9 Trafford 117 14 1 1 1 17 Wigan 138 5 0 1 0 6 GM 1,291 63 6 33 4 106 Source: Department for Education (2012)

2.8

Parents and independent groups are being encouraged to see up “Free Schools”. Free schools are set up by groups of parents, teachers, charities, businesses, universities, trusts, religious or voluntary groups, but funded directly by central government. They can be run by an "education provider" - an organisation or company brought in by the group setting up the school - but these firms are not allowed to make a profit. The schools are established as Academies, sharing many of the same freedoms, and are also independent of local authorities. There is only one free school currently open in GM (Atherton Community School opened in 2012) but six more have been successful in their Wave 3 applications –Manchester has three of these, Bolton, Oldham and Stockport have one each.

2.9

University Technical Colleges are being set up. These are colleges for 14-19 year olds which specialize in technical studies and are sponsored by a university (and other organisations). They combine practical and academic elements and employers are involved from the start in shaping the curriculum. These always have a specialism (such as engineering, science technologies and health care) and are designed to offer clear routes into HE and employment. In GM, Wigan UTC will be opening in 2013, and MediaCityUK UTC is proposed to open in 2013 also.

2.10

Studio Schools are being opened. These are a type of Academy which prioritises teaching through enterprise and real world work experience, with the aim being to shape provision according to the needs of employers. There are only 12 studio schools opening in 2012, none of which are in GM.

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Figure 1: Changes to Primary School Provision in GM

Source: Department for Education (2012)

Figure 2: Changes to Secondary School Provision in GM

Source: Department for Education (2012)

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2.11

The Local Authority’s role in skills planning has been removed in relation to young peoples’ education. Schools have more autonomy, money will no longer be ring fenced, and they are increasingly free to make their own decisions about how to spend their budgets.

2.12

Schools have been freed from a statutory duty to work with children’s services professionals in children’s trusts. Councils instead act as “champions of social justice”, with a strategic function, overseeing admissions, Special Educational Needs (SEN) and school improvement. Local authorities are also expected to play a role in ensuring that the system responds to the needs of the economy and the community; and to use labour market intelligence to “nudge” provision in the right direction if they perceive that there is sound evidence of market failure.

2.13

Local authorities have gained new duties with respect to Special Educational Needs (SEN) and disability. The Green Paper Support and Aspiration, published in March 2011, and the subsequent Next Steps document published in May this year outlined: a new duty for joint commissioning which will require local authorities and health bodies to take joint responsibility for providing services; a requirement on local authorities to publish a local offer of services for disabled children and young people and those with special educational needs; new protections for young people aged 16-25 in further education and a stronger focus on preparing them for adulthood; parents and young people, for the first time, to be entitled to have a personal budget, extending their choice and control over their support; and Further Education colleges for the first time and all academies, including Free Schools, to have the same duties as maintained schools to safeguard the education of children and young people with SEN. The reforms are being tested in 20 Pathfinder areas, covering 31 local authorities and their health partners – Trafford, Manchester, Oldham, Rochdale and Wigan are among these Pathfinders and Manchester is taking part in one of the in-depth case studies.2

2.14

Partnership building between providers, employers and learners is being promoted, as is strengthening the relationships between colleges, local authorities, charities, voluntary organisations and social enterprises. However, at the same time, partnerships’ direct leverage and control of funds has been reduced.

2.15

Both individuals and employers are expected to make a greater financial contribution to learning. The report New Challenges, New Chances, published in December 2011,3 built on 2010’s Skills for Sustainable Growth4 and set out Government’s vision of how a freer, more user-focused adult Further Education and skills system could make a major contribution to economic recovery. Similar to the approach advocated in the Leitch Review of Skills, 2006, the strategy recognises that investment in training gives real financial returns, and concludes therefore that the cost of paying for training should ultimately be shared between employers, individuals and the state to reflect the benefit

M.Craston, G. Thom, R. Johnson & L.Henderson – SQW (2012). Evaluation of the SEND Pathfinder Programme. London, Department for Education. Available at: https://www.education.gov.uk/publications/eOrderingDownload/DFE-RR248.pdf [Accessed 30th November 2012] 3 Department for Business Innovation and Skills. (2011). New Challenges New Chances. London, BIS. Available at: http://www.bis.gov.uk/assets/biscore/further-education-skills/docs/f/11-1380-further-education-skills-systemreform-plan. [Accessed 1st November 2012]

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each receives. The reasoning is that, as well as being a better way of allocating scarce resource, individuals and businesses are motivated to ensure that what is provided meets their needs. The immediate relevance of this to the current 16-19 cohort is limited, however given that those aged 24 and above will now have to fund their own education through a system of loans, it is all the more important for young people to learn while they are young. 2.16

The GCSE courses affecting a school’s position in the league tables have been reduced significantly. Building on the outcomes of the review led by Professor Alison Wolf,5 the Department for Education published details of qualifications of 14 to 16 year olds which will be included in Performance Tables from 2014 onwards. This change significantly restricts the qualifications which count towards the school’s performance measures. Fischer Family Trust has developed an analysis which applies 2014 approvals to 2011 data; and the consequences for many Local Authorities are striking, with significant falls in achievement of 5 GCSEs (A* to C grades) including English and Maths.

2.17

GCSEs will be scrapped for the cohort beginning education in 2015, to be replaced by the English Baccalaureate in core subjects. From the autumn of 2015, pupils will be taught for the new “EBacc” in English, maths and science; from 2016 this will extend to history, geography and languages; there will be no coursework in English, maths and history. Young people failing to attain these qualifications at 16 will be encouraged to do so in post-16 provision. While these reforms won’t affect 16-19 provision until 2017, the lack of confidence in GCSEs could be a factor more immediately, and in order to minimise difficulties further down the line, the impact of such a significant change on the current year 7 cohort (who will be the first affected) will need to be taken into consideration.

2.18

Educational Maintenance Allowance (EMA) has been stopped (although it has been partially replaced by a system of Bursaries) while Raising the Participation Age (RPA) has been reaffirmed. The system will shift from one in which young people were financially incentivised to stay in learning, to one in which young people will be required to participate, albeit not necessarily in full-time education.

Welfare Reform 2.19

A discussion of education and skills, employment and opportunity must also consider the consequences of not meeting this challenge (which to some degree is unfortunately inevitable) and thus take into account the substantial changes to welfare which are already being felt, but will accelerate in coming years. In very brief summary, the changes outlined in the Welfare Reform Act, 2012 are:



to replace the complex array of out of work benefits and working tax credits with a single Universal Credit;

Department for Business Innovation and Skills. (2010). Skills for Sustainable Growth. London, BIS. Available at: http://www.bis.gov.uk/assets/BISCore/further-education-skills/docs/S/10-1274-skills-for-sustainable-growthstrategy.pdf [Accessed 1st November 2012] 5 A. Wolf (2011). Review of Vocational Education. London, Department for Education. Available at: st https://www.education.gov.uk/publications/eOrderingDownload/The%20Wolf%20Report.pdf [Accessed 1 November 2012]

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

to reassess claims of disability and incapacity related benefit, particularly assessing capability to work; and



to introduce a single welfare to work programme, the Work Programme, designed to move and support longer term unemployed people into work. 6

2.20

The main focus for the Bill is to help ensure that individuals and families are better off (in financial, health, and social well-being terms) in work as opposed to claiming benefit, which will undoubtedly be a challenge in a period of fiscal restraint: nationally there are £18bn of cuts to welfare to consider, and in addition, the Chancellor has also announced a further £10bn of cuts, which currently remains unspecified and not agreed across Government. This will have a direct impact on many of those young people claiming benefits and even a potential indirect impact as many parents will be affected also.

2.21

The impact of welfare reform is surpassed only by the uncertainty of how it will interact with wider skills and education policy and the economic climate, but recent research undertaken for Manchester has indicated a significant challenge lies ahead for GM authorities in this area. 7

2.22

In this context, the Government’s Work Programme (WP) is the key approach to supporting jobseekers into employment. Prior to referral onto the WP, claimants are able to access a range of other support tools as determined by their Jobcentre Plus advisor which fall under ‘Get Britain Working’. These include: the work experience programme for 16 to 24 year olds; sector based work academies; and mandatory work activity.

2.23

The WP has been additionally supplemented from April 2012 by the Youth Contract; a dedicated means of supporting young jobseekers into employment opportunity. WP providers will receive additional funding to support young people into apprenticeship and work experience opportunities.

2.24

The key offer consists of 160,000 wage incentives of £2,275 for 18 to 24 year olds taken on by employers. It also includes the offer of a guaranteed work experience placement for every unemployed 18 to 24 year old wishing to participate in work experience. It is anticipated that 250,000 places will be provided nationally, with opportunities lasting for up to eight weeks.

2.25

There will also be opportunities in GM for employers to access supplementary funding to create and support apprenticeship opportunities. The Greater Manchester Youth Incentive will provide up to £750 to businesses creating apprenticeships for 16 to 24 year olds claiming JSA or NEET.

HM Government (2012). Welfare Reform Act. London, HMG. Available at: http://services.parliament.uk/bills/2010-11/welfarereform.html [accessed 1st November 2012] 7 Council for Local Economic Strategies (2012). The Cumulative Impact of Welfare Reform in Manchester. Report for Manchester City Council. Manchester, CLES.

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Greater Manchester Policy 2.26

The Manchester Independent Economic Review (MIER)8 concluded that GM faces two challenges to reach its full potential: to boost productivity, and to ensure that all parts of the city region and all its people are able to benefit from economic growth. The importance of education and training of those aged 16-19 is at the heart of both these challenges. Following on from the MIER, GM has set out a series of ambitions for skills and employment in the Greater Manchester Strategy (GMS).9

2.27

The two GMS priorities most relevant here are ‘Better Life Chances’ and ‘Highly Skilled’

2.28

2.29

Better Life Chances 

Improve the economic prospects of adults in our most deprived communities by substantially improving adult skills levels, particularly improving the volume of people with economically valuable skills



Improve the economic prospects of adults in our most deprived communities



Improve the economic prospects of young people in our most deprived communities by improving attainment rates and progression to higher education – either academic or vocational



Increasing access to employment opportunities in deprived areas



Tackling child poverty, in particular focusing on the employment and income levels of parents, to improve the life chances of the next generation of Manchester city region residents

Highly Skilled 

Increase the number of residents progressing into learning at Level 4 and above



Increase the numbers studying Science, Mathematics (STEM) and key future languages



Increase the level of generic skills among young people and adults (such as effective communication, team-working and customer care)



Increase the proportion of employers engaged in formal workforce development and leadership training



Improve the quality and relevance of skills provision by strengthening local strategic powers, planning and partnerships which ensure a demand-led system of skills provision



Increase the number of young people staying in learning and achieving Level 2/3 qualifications at 19 years old

Technology,

Engineering,

The Manchester Independent Economic Review (MIER) consisted of a Commission of prominent economists and business leaders, supported by a Policy Advisory Group and Secretariat with responsibility for commissioning high quality evidence-based research to inform decision makers in Manchester. 9 Association of Greater Manchester Authorities (2009), Prosperity for All: The Greater Manchester Strategy, Manchester, AGMA. Available at: http://neweconomymanchester.com/stories/842-greater_manchester_strategy st [accessed 1 November 2012]

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2.30

The Greater Manchester Strategy is currently being refreshed, which will result in a revised set of strategic objectives for employment and skills. This document will form part of the evidence base that determines the new strategic objectives.

2.31

The Greater Manchester Growth Plan, published in March 2012 by GM’s independent Economic Advisory Panel, reiterates the importance of skills for Greater Manchester’s growth ambitions, stressing that a clearer focus on employer needs all along the skills spectrum is required in skills policy and recommending that skills funding should become far more responsive to the needs of business10.

2.32

Following the establishment of the Skills and Employment Partnership (SEP), discussions have been on-going with colleges and providers to ascertain how Greater Manchester’s (GM’s) labour market information offer can be enhanced so that it can more effectively influence curriculum planning.

2.33

The Post-16 Education and Training Protocol has been entered into between the Combined Authority (CA) and the 10 constituent local authorities. It has been agreed that the function of securing the provision of suitable education and training to meet the needs of young people between the age of 16 and 19; young people with a learning difficulty assessment between the age of 16 and 25; and young people between the age of 16 and 19 who are subject to youth detention in GM, will be discharged at a subregional level by the CA.

Economic Climate 2.34

The legacy of the financial crash in 2007/08 is still being felt, as the vast confidence built up before the recession suffered a seismic blow, leaving both businesses and government’s struggling to consolidate their finances – a struggle that will continue into the foreseeable future. This implies also that even once financial stability is reasserted, private and public agencies will be in a very different climate in terms spending than they were previously.

2.35

The impact of the recession on GM’s young people is evident in Figure 3 below, which shows that as in previous recessions there is a lagged but significant impact on youth unemployment. While it is true that this has not been as bad either as previous recessions or as forecast immediately after the crash, it has undoubtedly been substantial and devastating for young people locked out of opportunity as new entrants to the labour market face a particular disadvantage, due to a lack of work experience and core employability skills.11 The chart does show some improvement in youth JSA claimants between 2010 and 2011, but much of this has been undone since, meaning that in June 2012 compared with June 2008:



56,200 16-24 year olds are unemployed, an increase of 19,800 (54.4%);



25,010 are claiming JSA, an increase of 10,380 (71.0%); and

Greater Manchester Economic Advisory Panel (2012) The Greater Manchester Growth Plan. Manchester, New Economy. Available at:: http://neweconomymanchester.com/stories/1544-greater_manchester_growth_plan [Accessed 1st November 2012] 11 New Economy (2012): Youth Unemployment in the North West: Analysis and Best Practise, for the Regional Leaders’ Board. Manchester, New Economy.

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

8,680 have been claiming JSA for longer than 6 months, an increase of 6,685 (335.1%).

2.36

With these increases in mind there is clearly a substantial cyclical problem; a lack of demand for labour more generally which is impacting on the opportunities young people face in the labour market.

Figure 3: Impact of the recession on GM’s youth JSA claimants, benchmarked: 2008 Q1=100

YOUTH JSA CLAIMANTS (LHS)

2012 Q2

2012 Q1

2011 Q4

2011 Q3

2011 Q2

2011 Q1

2010 Q4

2010 Q3

2010 Q2

2010 Q1

2009 Q4

2009 Q3

2009 Q2

2009 Q1

2008 Q4

2008 Q3

2008 Q2

101 100 99 98 97 96 95 94 93 92 91 90

2008 Q1

180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80

GDP (RHS)

Source: Office for National Statistics (2012); Department for Work and Pensions (2012)

2.37

However, this cyclical issue is only a part of the youth unemployment challenge: youth unemployment predates the recession, and was endemic in GM despite the longest period of sustained economic growth in the country’s history. Figure 4 below shows that there was both a large short-term (frictional) unemployment and small longterm (structural) unemployment amongst young people before 2008. Both the shortterm claimants, many of whom will spend a long period moving on and off JSA as they fail to progress into a career,12 and those unemployed raise pertinent questions for the system of education and training in GM.

K. Ashworth and W.C Liu (2001). Jobseeker’s allowance: Transitions to work and early Returns to JSA. London, Department for Work and Pensions. Available at: http://research.dwp.gov.uk/asd/asd5/IH80.pdf st [Accessed 1 November 2012]

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Figure 4: Youth JSA claimants by duration of claim in GM 30,000 25,000

20,000 15,000 10,000

5,000

12 MONTHS+

Sep-12

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-11

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-10

May-10

Jan-10

Sep-09

Jan-09

May-09

Sep-08

Jan-08

6-12 MONTHS

May-08

Sep-07

Jan-07

May-07

Sep-06

May-06

Jan-06

Sep-05

May-05

Jan-05

Sep-04

Jan-04

May-04

Sep-03

Jan-03

May-03

Sep-02

LESS THAN 6 MONTHS

Source: Department for Work and Pensions (2012)

2.38

While the increase since the crash has, as expected, been predominantly in “active” claimants – JSA claimants who must look for work as condition of benefit receipt – there is also an underlying “inactive” youth claimant population, as summarised in Figure 5, which has remained persistent. While these claimants are not as close to the labour market as JSA claimants (they either have a disability or a child which prevents them from working) there are many who will become available for work – their condition may improve or their child will grow up, and therefore having been out of the labour market for a long period of time, their entry into employment will pose a significant skills challenge.

2.39

In addition, the Work Capability Assessment of Incapacity Benefit claimants, and the reduction in the age of the child for which a lone parent can claim Income Support to five, mean that many will have to look for work going forward whereas previously this would not have been the case. While these issues apply across the inactive claimant population (and arguably there are more concerns for the older cohort) failing to deal with young people coming off these benefits will have longer term consequences.

Figure 5: Under 25 claimants of all out-of-work benefits in GM 60,000

50,000 40,000 30,000

20,000

OTHER

LPIS

ESA/IB

February 2012

April 2011

September 2011

November 2010

June 2010

January 2010

March 2009

August 2009

May 2008

October 2008

December 2007

July 2007

February 2007

April 2006

September 2006

November 2005

June 2005

January 2005

March 2004

August 2004

October 2003

May 2003

December 2002

July 2002

February 2002

September 2001

April 2001

November 2000

June 2000

August 1999

January 2000

10,000

JSA

Source: Department for Work and Pensions (2012)

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Forecast Skills and Employment Demand 2.40

In order to gauge longer-term demand, employment forecasts produced by Oxford Economics on behalf of Greater Manchester are presented below. The Greater Manchester Forecasting Model (GMFM) forecasts that the trend towards increased demand for higher level skills looks set to continue: projections indicate that of the 921,000 jobs due to be created over the next decade (due to retirements and labour market mobility, as well as growth) half will require skills equivalent to at least NVQ level 3, and a quarter to NVQ level 4.

2.41

The structural change in the economy experienced over the past decade is forecast to continue and this will dictate the demand for skills. The financial and professional services sector is expected to continue to dominate, accounting for more than a quarter (28.8%) of all employment opportunities, and more than a third (35.5%) of all employment requiring higher level skills. There is a cross sector requirement for higher level skills, although some sectors (hospitality & tourism and retail in particular) will continue to offer significant numbers of lower level jobs. Although the public sector will continue to reduce in employment terms, its size will ensure that there will continue to be significant demand for new entrants in education and health and social care, both of which have a demand profile in the next ten years skewed towards higher qualification levels and at NVQ level 4 in particular.

Table 2: Net requirement per annum by sector and skill level 2012-22 NVQ0 NVQ1 NVQ2 NVQ3 Aviation 84 159 186 178 Automotive 181 207 410 418 Public Sector 57 106 364 387 Sport 193 240 456 524 Manufacturing 338 413 578 721 Logistics 86 228 895 904 ICT Digital & Communications 213 359 754 779 Hospitality & Tourism 911 1,355 1,684 1,599 Creative / Digital / New Media 413 581 1,038 1,140 Retail 1,169 1,294 2,684 2,307 Education 219 380 760 719 Construction 938 1,267 1,871 3,244 Health and Social Care 547 1,070 2,056 1,907 Financial & Professional Services 1,378 2,371 5,031 5,055 Total 11,307 13,901 22,897 22,641

NVQ4 154 285 682 674 758 1,386 1,669 923 2,266 1,354 3,263 2,249 4,948 11,365 21,388

TOTAL 761 1,501 1,596 2,087 2,808 3,499 3,774 6,472 5,438 8,808 5,341 9,569 10,528 25,200 92,134

Source: Oxford Economics (2011) Yellow shading: Top 3 sector requirement for employees for each skill level

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Figure 6: Skill demand (net requirement) by sector in GM 2012-2022 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000

NVQ0

NVQ1

NVQ2

NVQ3

Financial & Professional Services

Life Sciences

Construction

Education

Retail

Creative / Digital / New Media

Hospitality & Tourism

ICT Digital & Communications

Manufacturing

Sport

Public Sector

Automotive

Aviation

Logistics

20,000

NVQ4

Source: Oxford Economics (2011)

2.42

Figure 7 below highlights the fact that this changing composition of employment is expected to drive demand for higher level occupations groups, such as managers, directors and senior officials and associate professional and technical occupations. It is notable that there are also significant job opportunities forecast for lower level occupations in high â&#x20AC;&#x153;churnâ&#x20AC;? occupations such as elementary and sales and customer service roles.

Table 3: Net requirement per annum by occupation and skill level 2012-22 NVQ0

NVQ1

NVQ2

NVQ3

NVQ4

TOTAL

Process, Plant and Machine Operatives

1,020

1,773

1,388

1,164

322

5,667

Skilled Trades

1,165

1,296

1,653

4,044

796

8,954

Elementary

4,999

5,029

5,543

3,871

1,472 20,914

379

693

2,390

1,607

1,513

6,582 8,982

Administrative and Secretarial Caring, Leisure and Other Service Sales and Customer Service Associate Professional and Technical Professional Managers, Directors and Senior Officials

655

1,160

2,774

2,611

1,782

2,292

2,186

5,683

4,452

1,931 16,544

164

510

1,032

1,534

4,150

7,390

281

316

723

4,353

5,714

592

973

2,118

2,635

5,069 11,387

Source: Oxford Economics (2011)

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Figure 7: Skill demand (net requirement) by occupation in GM 2012-2022 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000

10,000 0 Process, Plant and Administrative and Caring, Leisure and Machine Secretarial Other Service Operatives

NVQ0

Skilled Trades

NVQ1

Professional

NVQ2

Elementary

NVQ3

Associate Sales and Professional and Customer Service Technical

NVQ4

Managers, Directors and Senior Officials

Source: Oxford Economics (2011)

Census 2011 and its Implications for Cohort Forecasts 2.43

New Economy has for some time been advising that the ONS population projections are conservative, failing to account for economic growth and the attractiveness to current residents (who may otherwise have emigrated) and migrants from within the UK and abroad, to cities as drivers of growth and opportunity.

2.44

This has been borne out by the 2011 census results, which showed that even the Oxford Economics projections, which accounted for these factors, were conservative: Greater Manchester grew by 166,400 (4.5%) since 2001 to a total population of 2.68m. ONS fell short of this by 2.2% and even the Oxford Economics projections were short by 1.2% This means that there are now 59,000 more residents than authorities expected in GM, which has implications both for skills provision (for both young and old people) and for employment opportunity.

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3 PARTICIPATION 3.1

This section begins by outlining the participation of 16-19 year olds in GM, analysing transitions from compulsory education into other forms of provision. This will also cover those not participating, and the activities of 16-18 year olds with LDD and teenage mothers. In this context, September Guarantee performance is also included.

KEY POINTS: 

In GM around 30,000 pupils reach the end of Key Stage 4 each year, with almost 80% going directly on to education or training, half of whom go into FE colleges, a quarter of whom go into sixth form colleges. By age 17 there is a fall in the proportion attending SSF and other FE colleges while the proportion in work-based-learning and those whose activity is unknown or who are not participating increased with age.



There is also a rise between 16 and 18 in the proportion who are Not in Employment Education or Training (NEET) and a dramatic rise in those whose activity is “Not Known”. Of those who become NEET, about half come from education, a quarter from training and a quarter come from employment. By contrast, of those leaving NEET, approximately half went into employment, 40% into training and only 6% left into education.



16-18 year olds with Learning Difficulties or Disabilities (LDD) are far more likely to be NEET or Not Known than the cohort as a whole. Teenage mothers are, as might be expected, far less likely to be participating, with just over a third doing so.



GM performs better than regionally or nationally in terms of the offers made under the September Guarantee policy, with only two districts underperforming compared to the national rate.



Nationally and locally the key policy to address low participation is Raising the Participation Age (RPA). This will increase the minimum age at which young people in England can leave learning to age 17, and from 2015 to age 18. In GM, overall participation targets of 95% for the eligible RPA cohort in 2013 and 98% in 2015 were agreed in December 2011. These targets were recognised as ambitious, particularly at a time when the impact on participation levels of changes to financial support for young people were unknown.

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Key Stage 4 Through-Put Beginning however with the “through-put” to this system requires that we look at the Key Stage 4 (KS4) cohort, summarised in Table 4 below. Around 30,000 pupils reach the end of KS4 each year in GM. Over four-fifths (81.9%) of these young people achieve the equivalent of a NVQ Level 2 (5+A* to C grades) however this falls to less than three-fifths if English and Maths are included.

3.2

Table 4: Pupils reaching end of KS4 by GCSE qualification attained – 2010/11 5+ A*-C grades inc. 5+ A*-C grades E&M TOTAL N % N % Bolton 3,418 2,037 59.6 2,898 84.8 Bury 2,199 1,381 62.8 1,777 80.8 Manchester 4,432 2,296 51.8 3,532 79.7 Oldham 2,967 1,664 56.1 2,507 84.5 Rochdale 2,449 1,308 53.4 1,795 73.3 Salford 2,198 1,163 52.9 1,923 87.5 Stockport 3,006 1,942 64.6 2,468 82.1 Tameside 2,845 1,582 55.6 2,299 80.8 Trafford 2,829 1,975 69.8 2,526 89.3 Wigan 3,772 2,154 57.1 2,950 78.2 GM 30,115 17,501 58.1 24,676 81.9 NW 79,661 46,522 58.4 65,481 82.2 England 564,874 329,886 58.4 455,853 80.7

5+ A*-G grades N 3,251 2,144 4,055 2,816 2,302 2,106 2,871 2,671 2,750 3,632 28,598 75,837 538,325

% 95.1 97.5 91.5 94.9 94.0 95.8 95.5 93.9 97.2 96.3 95.0 95.2 95.3

Source: Department for Education (2012)

3.3

3.4

Table 5 and Table 6 below summarise the destination of KS4 pupils in GM (however note that this is a different cohort to the table above), showing that the vast majority went on to education at 24,343 (78.9%) learners. Broken down by type of provision: 

12,139 (39.3%) went to FE colleges;



6,644 (21.5%) went to sixth form colleges;



3,486 (11.3%) went to a school sixth form; and



2,077 (6.7%) went to another FE provider. There were also 1,576 (5.1%) who left into Apprenticeships. However 3,291 (10.7%) did not sustain an education destination, and 1,636 (5.3%) were not captured in the data – this is because they were either in employment, Not in Employment Education or Training (NEET), or had left England (including to Wales or Scotland, as well as those taking gap years or moving abroad).

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Table 5: 2008/09 KS4 cohort going to, or remaining in, an education destination in 2009/10 NUMBER OF STUDENTS Bolton Bury Manchester Oldham Rochdale Salford Stockport Tameside Trafford Wigan GM England

3,580 2,200 4,580 3,000 2,560 2,290 3,000 2,940 2,840

ANY EDUCATION DESTINATION 2,832 1,782 3,569 2,438 2,002 1,723 2,356 2,253 2,401

FE COLLEGE 1,404 1,042 1,725 1,025 1,267 1,411 645 891 940

OTHER FE PROVIDER 168 87 638 152 100 207 113 173 297

SCHOOL SIXTH FORM

SIXTH FORM COLLEGE

693 21 430 435 326 88 135 184 1,020

568 637 776 824 308 17 1,463 1,005 144

APPRENTICESHIPS 167 100 181 126 111 154 157 200 89

EDUCATION DESTINATION NOT SUSTAINED

NOT CAPTURED IN DATA

381 211 535 306 281 310 310 312 221

200 102 295 131 168 103 177 175 130

3,860

2,970

1,498

259

249

963

281

434

175

30,850

24,343

12,139

2,077

3,486

6,644

1,576

3,291

1,636

569,110

461,615

179,143

23,716

194,616

64,112

23,809

51,314

32,092

Source: Department for Education (2012)

Table 6: 2008/09 % of KS4 cohort going to, or remaining in, an education destination in 2009/10 NUMBER OF STUDENTS

ANY EDUCATION DESTINATION

FE COLLEGE

Bolton

3,580

79.1%

39.2%

Bury

2,200

81.0%

Manchester

4,580

77.9%

Oldham

3,000

Rochdale Salford

OTHER FE PROVIDER

SCHOOL SIXTH FORM

SIXTH FORM COLLEGE

APPRENTICESHIPS

4.7%

19.3%

15.9%

4.7%

47.4%

3.9%

1.0%

29.0%

37.7%

13.9%

9.4%

17.0%

81.3%

34.2%

5.1%

14.5%

2,560

78.2%

49.5%

3.9%

2,290

75.2%

61.6%

9.1%

Stockport

3,000

78.5%

21.5%

3.8%

Tameside

2,940

76.6%

30.3%

Trafford

2,840

84.5%

33.1%

Wigan

3,860

76.9%

38.8%

30,850

78.9%

569,110

81.1%

GM England

EDUCATION DESTINATION NOT SUSTAINED

NOT CAPTURED IN DATA

10.6%

5.6%

4.6%

9.6%

4.6%

3.9%

11.7%

6.4%

27.5%

4.2%

10.2%

4.4%

12.8%

12.0%

4.3%

11.0%

6.5%

3.8%

0.7%

6.7%

13.5%

4.5%

48.8%

5.2%

10.3%

5.9%

6.3%

34.2%

6.8%

10.6%

6.0%

10.5%

35.9%

5.1%

3.1%

7.8%

4.6%

6.7%

6.4%

25.0%

7.3%

11.3%

4.5%

39.3%

6.7%

11.3%

21.5%

5.1%

10.7%

5.3%

31.5%

4.2%

34.2%

11.3%

4.2%

9.0%

5.6%

Source: Department for Education (2012)

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3.5

This flow of learners feeds through to a variety of participation at 16 and 17 years old, as summarised in Figure 8 below. There is a clear difference in participation between ages 16 and 17: for example, it appears that there is a drop-off in learner number between ages 16 and 17 in sixth form colleges (from 29.4% at 16 to 21.9% at 17); and in the number of students at other FE colleges (from 41.2% to 38.8%), whereas the number in work based learning (WBL) rose from (from 3.5% to 7.5%) and, as will be expanded upon further below, an increase from 3.1% to 12.7% who are unknown/not participating.

Figure 8: Participation at age 16 & 17 in GM – end of 2010

AGE 16

11.2%

AGE 17

9.6% 1.9% 4.0%

AGE 16 & 17

10.4% 2.3% 4.3%

2.6% 4.5%

10%

29.4%

41.2%

21.9%

20%

Maintained schools Sixth form college Part-time education

38.8%

25.6%

30%

4.6% 3.5% 3.1%

7.5% 3.6%

40.0%

40%

50%

60%

Academies & CTCs Other FE Unknown/Not participating

12.7%

6.1% 3.6% 7.9%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Independent schools WBL

Source: Department for Education (2012)

NEET, EET and Not Known 16-18 year olds 3.6

3.7

This trend is also visible in the data from Connexions agencies source summarised in Table 7 below, which tracks young peoples’ activity between 16 and 18. In the 3 months to July 2012 there is a clear age disparity: 

The NEET proportion rises from 6.2% for 16 year olds, to 7.8% for 17 year olds and 8.6% for 18 year olds;



Young people whose activity is “Not Known” increases dramatically from 1.5% at 16 to 3.7% at 17 and 11.2% at 18; and



the proportion known to be in learning decreases correspondingly, from 90.1% for 16 year olds to 83.9% for 17 year olds and 58.8% for 18 year olds. It is clear also that, largely due to the characteristics and demographies of the various districts (against their “statistical neighbours” many compare better) Manchester stands out as performing poorly, as does Wigan, although there are instances of poor performance even in the more affluent boroughs at certain ages – for example Trafford has the highest proportion Not Known at 17, and Wigan – although performing well at ages 16 and 17 for those In Learning or NEET, is the worst in GM at age 18 for both measures.

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Table 7: 16-18 year olds NEET, Not Known and In Learning in GM â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 3 months to July 2012 NEET NOT KNOWN IN LEARNING 16 17 18 16 17 18 16 17 18 Bolton 4.4% 7.0% 8.0% 1.1% 3.2% 13.9% 92.7% 84.8% 66.9% Bury 6.4% 6.6% 7.7% 1.2% 2.8% 10.1% 90.5% 86.2% 69.2% Manchester 8.3% 10.2% 9.7% 1.4% 3.4% 8.4% 87.4% 81.3% 72.8% Oldham 5.9% 7.5% 9.2% 1.5% 4.4% 7.6% 90.2% 83.0% 74.4% Rochdale 7.4% 8.5% 9.0% 1.5% 2.4% 4.4% 88.9% 84.8% 78.5% Salford 7.5% 7.2% 6.2% 1.8% 3.4% 8.3% 87.4% 83.1% 72.4% Stockport 5.9% 8.2% 8.8% 1.4% 3.6% 16.4% 90.5% 84.2% 67.2% Tameside 7.0% 8.4% 8.5% 1.3% 3.9% 7.3% 89.8% 83.9% 76.3% Trafford 3.7% 4.9% 7.4% 1.7% 5.3% 13.5% 92.7% 86.5% 69.7% Wigan 5.2% 7.1% 10.0% 2.3% 4.5% 20.3% 91.1% 84.1% 58.8% GM 6.2% 7.8% 8.6% 1.5% 3.7% 11.2% 90.1% 83.9% 70.3% NW 5.8% 7.6% 9.2% 2.7% 5.9% 12.7% 89.7% 82.5% 66.9% England 4.7% 6.0% 7.4% 4.1% 8.1% 16.4% 89.1% 82.1% 65.5% WORST

Source: NCCIS, Department for Education (2012)

BEST

3.8

The dynamics of this 16-18 year old cohort are complex, as many move in and out of NEET, work and various forms of education and training, however the flows between April 2011 and March 2012 are summarised in

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Table 8 and Table 9 below. These dynamics show that far more young people became NEET than left NEET, and that half came from education and three quarters from education or training put together, with only a quarter joining from employment. Conversely more than half of NEET leavers left into education, a further 40% left into WBL/E2E/Other Government Supported Training and only 6.3% left NEET into education. 3.9

On average 6,648 young people were NEET during this year, but 8,150 young people became NEET during this time: 

4,150 (50.9%) came from full time education (62.4% of average NEET);



2,053 (25.2%) came from WBL/E2E/Other Government Supported Training (30.9% of average NEET); and



1,947 (23.9%) came from employment (29.3% of average NEET).

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Table 8: NEET joiners by origin â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 2011/12 FULL TIME AVE. EDUCATION NEET N % Bolton Bury Manchester Oldham Rochdale Salford Stockport Tameside Trafford Wigan GM NW England

692 446 1,264 685 648 515 599 696 383 721 6,648 17,308 90,796

421 277 957 500 475 264 299 345 266 346 4,150 9,453 52,777

60.8% 62.1% 75.7% 73.0% 73.3% 51.3% 49.9% 49.6% 69.5% 48.0% 62.4% 54.6% 58.1%

WBL / E2E / OTHER GST N % 191 153 334 256 242 164 72 218 67 356 2,053 4,357 21,946

27.6% 34.3% 26.4% 37.4% 37.4% 31.8% 12.0% 31.3% 17.5% 49.4% 30.9% 25.2% 24.2%

EMPLOYMENT

TOTAL

176 215 356 118 154 154 288 130 146 210 1,947 4,918 21,521

25.4% 48.2% 28.2% 17.2% 23.8% 29.9% 48.1% 18.7% 38.1% 29.1% 29.3% 28.4% 23.7%

788 645 1,647 874 871 582 659 693 479 912 8,150 18,728 96,244

113.8% 144.5% 130.3% 127.7% 134.5% 113.0% 110.0% 99.6% 125.1% 126.5% 122.6% 108.2% 106.0%

Source: NCCIS, Department for Education (2012)

3.10 3.11 3.12 3.13

There were markedly fewer NEET leavers during the period, with only 2,285 leaving NEET: 1,214 (53.1%) of these left into employment (18.3% of average NEET); 928 (40.6%) of these left into WBL/E2E/Other Government Supported Training (14.0% of average NEET); and 143 (6.3%) left into full time education (2.2% of average NEET).

Table 9: NEET leavers by destination 2011/12 FULL TIME WBL / E2E / EDUCATION OTHER GST AVE. N % N % NEET Bolton 692 30 4.3% 129 18.6% Bury 446 3 0.7% 43 9.6% Manchester 1,264 39 3.1% 197 15.6% Oldham 685 11 1.6% 94 13.7% Rochdale 648 9 1.4% 107 16.5% Salford 515 11 2.1% 80 15.5% Stockport 599 6 1.0% 18 3.0% Tameside 696 19 2.7% 90 12.9% Trafford 383 8 2.1% 43 11.2% Wigan 721 7 1.0% 127 17.6% GM 6,648 143 2.2% 928 14.0% NW 17,308 360 2.1% 1,868 10.8% England 90,796 1,910 2.1% 11,572 12.7%

EMPLOYMENT N 151 97 244 80 102 88 138 112 83 119 1,214 2,684 16,025

% 21.8% 21.7% 19.3% 11.7% 15.7% 17.1% 23.0% 16.1% 21.7% 16.5% 18.3% 15.5% 17.6%

TOTAL N 310 143 480 185 218 179 162 221 134 253 2,285 4,912 29,507

% 44.8% 32.0% 38.0% 27.0% 33.7% 34.8% 27.0% 31.8% 35.0% 35.1% 34.4% 28.4% 32.5%

Source: NCCIS, Department for Education (2012)

Participation of Learners with LDD and Teenage Mothers 3.14

4,095 young people aged 16-18 have a Learning Difficulty or Disability (LDD) in GM, most of which (77.4%) are In Learning, but there are higher rates of both NEET and Not Known than the cohort as a whole, at 14.5% and 5.1% respectively.

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Table 10: 16-18 year olds (academic age) with LDD In Learning, NEET and Not Known – March 2012 Bolton Bury Manchester Oldham Rochdale Salford Stockport Tameside Trafford Wigan GM NW England

16-18 WITH LDD 446 305 917 219 359 340 368 324 322 495 4,095 12,495 141,179

% IN LEARNING 73.5% 85.2% 75.8% 82.6% 81.3% 73.8% 81.0% 76.5% 79.5% 72.5% 77.4% 77.2% 74.6%

% NEET 15.1% 6.7% 15.5% 12.6% 12.8% 16.8% 14.3% 17.5% 9.7% 18.4% 14.5% 14.4% 11.6%

% NOT KNOWN 11.2% 2.0% 4.4% 3.7% 0.8% 5.9% 4.1% 3.1% 7.8% 6.3% 5.1% 6.3% 9.6%

Source: NCCIS, Department for Education (2012)

3.15

There are also 1,410 16-18 year old teenage mothers in GM, many of whom are not participating in education, as might be expected. Across GM as a whole, 35.9% are EET, 7.4% are Not Known and 56.7% are neither – similar in classification to NEET, although the circumstances are clearly very different with respect to this group, and many will not be expected to participate, rather to be looking after their child. EET rates for this group are lowest in Oldham (28.7%), Tameside (29.3%) and Bolton (31.5%).

Table 11: 16-18 year old (academic age) teenage mothers In Learning, “NEET”* and Not Known – March 2012 TMS KNOWN TO LAS "NEET" % EET % NOT KNOWN Bolton Bury Manchester Oldham Rochdale Salford Stockport Tameside Trafford Wigan GM NW England

149 99 295 129 100 105 85 147 68 233 1,410 3,479 18,876

55.7% 50.5% 63.1% 61.2% 49.0% 58.1% 47.1% 66.7% 60.3% 48.5% 56.7% 56.8% 51.0%

31.5% 45.5% 33.2% 28.7% 49.0% 38.1% 37.6% 29.3% 32.4% 39.9% 35.9% 30.6% 28.9%

12.8% 4.0% 3.7% 10.1% 2.0% 3.8% 15.3% 4.1% 7.4% 11.6% 7.4% 12.6% 20.1%

Source: NCCIS, Department for Education (2012) *These aren’t officially NEET but are TMs neither EET nor Not Known

September Guarantee 3.16

In the document Building Engagement; Building Futures: Our Strategy to Maximise the Participation of 16-24 year olds, 2011, the Government outlined its plans for a “September Guarantee”, in many ways to prepare for the Raising of the Participation Age (RPA). This consists of an appropriate offer of education or training in a school, college or workplace for all 16 and 17 year olds.

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3.17

As Figure 9 below shows, GM has a higher rate of offers made than either the NW or England in both 2010 and 2011, although there was a marginal fall to 94.0% of the cohort in 2011. Wigan and Oldham performed the best in this regard with a rate of 95.2%, followed closely by Bury with 95.1%; Bolton and Salford were the only two districts to underperform the national rate with 92.1% and 92.6% respectively.

93.9%

92.7%

93.5%

94.5%

94.0%

94.3%

93.3%

93.0%

92.7%

94.4%

94.3%

93.3%

92.6%

94.7%

94.1%

95.2%

93.6%

93.8%

92.9%

94%

92.1%

96%

94.5%

98%

95.1%

100%

95.2%

97.8%

Figure 9: September Guarantee % offer made

92% 90% 88%

2010

2011

Source: Department for Education (2012)

Raising of the Participation Age 3.18

Nationally and locally the key policy to address low participation is Raising the Participation Age (RPA). This is a long-term policy change dating from The Education and Skills Act, 2008 which, from 2013, will increase the minimum age at which young people in England can leave learning to age 17, and from 2015 to age 18. The current Government, in both the 2010 Comprehensive Spending Review and the Department for Education’s White Paper The Importance of Teaching, 2010, confirmed its commitment to RPA and has legislated in the Education Act, 2011.13 For young people of this age, the reform does not mean necessarily staying in school, but will require a minimum amount of training towards an accredited qualification if in work. Young people will be able to choose one of the following options:



full-time education, such as school, college or home education;



work-based learning, such as an Apprenticeship; or



part-time education or training if they are employed, self-employed or volunteering for more than 20 hours a week.

3.19

Local Authorities and others have raised concerns in terms of the practicalities of enforcing this14 – the question as to how employers will be required to prove the correct

HM Government (2011). The Education Act. London, HMG. Available at: http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/21/section/74/enacted [Accessed 1st November 2012] 14 House of Commons (2011). Education - Fourth Report. Participation by 16-19 year olds in education and training. London, Parliament. Available at:http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201012/cmselect/cmeduc/850/85005.htm [Accessed 1st November 2012]

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training is being undertaken, and whether imposing fines for not doing so will merely discourage employers from hiring young people, is as yet unresolved. The current position of the Government is that “the duties on employers within the RPA legislation will not be commenced in 2013”.15 Therefore , while 16- and 17-year-olds who do work full-time will still be under the duty to undertake education or training part-time alongside their work, employers will not be punished if they do not. The Government is: “sure that employers will see the benefits of training for their young employees – both for the individual and the business – and training for this age group is all fully-funded by Government.”16 These duties will remain on the statute book and will be kept under review. 3.20

In GM, overall participation targets of 95% for the eligible RPA cohort in 2013 and 98% in 2015 were agreed in December 2011. These targets were recognised as ambitious, particularly at a time when the impact on participation levels of changes to financial support for young people (e.g. EMA removal) were unknown. Further targets for ‘vulnerable groups’ were agreed by local authority area, based on December 2011 baselines. These included care leavers, teenage mothers, Youth Offending Service clients and learners with learning difficulties/disabilities, cohorts of young people who are over-represented in the NEET group. Through RPA Trials funding, all GM areas have undertaken ‘Risk of NEET’ assessments to identify key factors impacting on the likelihood of non-participation. This work has informed individual area RPA Strategies and local priorities. The impact of new responsibilities for schools, from September 2012, in securing access to Careers Guidance and of the widespread cuts to Connexions Services has yet to be fully assessed, but there are concerns that GM local authorities will have a reduced capacity to track young people’s destinations and therefore to identify and support those young people most at risk of non-participation, already NEET or whose status is ‘unknown’.

Department for Education (2012). RPA Consultation Response. London, DfE. Available at: http://www.education.gov.uk/childrenandyoungpeople/youngpeople/participation/rpa/a00210946/consultationresponse [Accessed 1st November 2012] 16 Ibid

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4 PROVISION 

This section looks in more detail at what education and training is being delivered to GM residents aged 16-19. This charts the mode, type and level of provision, moving on to analyse travel to learn patterns before drilling down into learner characteristics, finishing with an assessment of the provider base, qualification type and sector.

KEY POINTS: 

In GM almost 90% of EFA funded learners aged between 16-19 are in FE colleges, although this is far lower in boroughs with significant sixth form presence. There has been a vast increase in the numbers aged under 19 taking Apprenticeships, with starts increasing by more than two-thirds in two years, although this is uneven across GM.



Almost all 16-19 learners in SSF are studying at Level 3 – as would be expected – however this is two-thirds in FE, a proportion which has risen over the last three years.



Analysing travel to learn patterns across GM shows that fewer tend to travel at Level 1 than at Levels 2 and 3, with major movements at higher levels from Rochdale to both Bury and Oldham, and from Manchester to both Stockport and Trafford and vice versa.



In terms of learner characteristics for GM learners, three quarters are white/British; a very small proportion of (EFA funded) learners have a statement of Special Educational Needs (SEN), but far more have LDD (16.2%); when taken together almost half study at Level 3 (a larger proportion than the average across all learners). Almost one in ten FE learners has a disability with more than half of these at Level 3 (again a larger proportion than the average across all learners). One in twenty SSF learners are FSM-eligible, while 44.7% of FE learners are disadvantaged, these learners are far more likely to be studying at a lower level.



There are 60 providers which deliver to more than 100 GM residents: 31 of these are FE providers, 29 are School Sixth Forms. However provision is concentrated heavily in the top 20 of each type of provider, and the FE colleges dominate provision.



The vast majority of SSF aims are GCE A/AS/A2 levels while in FE these make up only a third, with Awards, Diplomas and Functional Skills together taking up another third – these have all seen substantial increases over the last three years, while notably NVQ/GNVQ aims have fallen.



The most popular Sector Subject Area (SSA) – excluding the preparation for life and work courses which take up 22.1% – is science and maths, taking up a quarter of known remaining aims. Notably, the SSF sector provides proportionally more science and maths courses, while FE provides more in health, public services and care. Apprenticeship provision is focused in business administration and law, engineering, retail and commercial enterprise, and leisure travel and tourism.

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Level and Mode of Attendance 4.1

Looking at Education Funding Agency (EFA) funded provision, as Table 12 below shows, the level of provision in SSF has remained broadly constant between 2009/10 and 2011/12 in GM, with the overwhelming majority (97%) of provision being at Level 3. This represents a 0.3 percentage point increase over the period.

Table 12: SSF learners by notional level 16-19 2009/10 N Entry Level Level 1 Level 2 Level 3

20 50 230 7,960

Higher Level Total

2010/11 N

0% 1% 3% 96%

2011/12 %

10 10 280 7,540

0% 0% 4% 96%

CHANGE 09/10-11/12 PERCENTAGE N POINT

10 40 200 7,500

0% 1% 3% 97%

-10 -10 -30 -460

0% 0% 0% 1%

8,270

100%

7,890

100%

7,750

100%

-520

Source: Education Funding Agency (2012)

4.2

As Table 13 below shows, a more significant change has been experienced in FE where the proportion studying at Level 3 has risen from 58% of learners in 2009/10 to 60% in 2010/11 to 65% in 2011/12. Since 2009/10 there have been significant reductions in the proportion of learners studying at Level 2 (17% down from 19%) and the proportion studying an unknown level (down 5 percentage points over the period).

Table 13: FE learners 16-19 by highest level undertaken 2009/10 N Entry Level Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Unknown Total

1,860 7,750 11,690 35,030 30

2010/11 %

3% 13% 19% 58% 0%

2,550 9,440 10,460 35,980 20

2011/12 %

4% 16% 18% 60% 0%

CHANGE 09/10-11/12 PERCENTAGE N POINT

1,760 7,310 9,660 36,270 30

3% 13% 17% 65% 0%

-100 -440 -2,030 1,240 0

0% 0% -2% 7% 0%

3,850

1,240

690

-3,160

-5%

60,200

100%

59,700

100%

55,710

100%

-4,500

Source: Education Funding Agency (2012)

4.3

Notably, between 2009/10 and 2011/12 the number of 16 year old learners studying at or below Level 2 in FE decreased by 980 (1.2pp), but the GCSE statistics for the same cohort show that the number leaving KS4 the previous year with 5+ GCSEs A*-C (i.e. a level 2) has increased dramatically â&#x20AC;&#x201C; by 2,460 (11.7pp). This seems to suggest that a large proportion of the improvement in performance at KS4 is not leading to higher levels of study at KS5, and that there may, for a number of reasons, be many young people who already hold a Level 2 studying at or below Level 2 at KS5. However not all of those who attain Level 2 by 16 will have progressed into education or training, and it may be appropriate for some to be learning below Level 2, despite already having attained this level, because they will be studying a different subject.

4.4

Turning to mode of attendance, as would be expected for this age group the majority studied full-time for a full year (82%), although this figure has fallen from 84% in 2009/10. There has been a simultaneous rise in the proportion studying full-time for

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part a year (3%, up from 1% in 2009/10) and those studying part time (15%, up from 14% in 2009/10). Table 14: FE learners by mode of attendance 16-19 2009/10 N Full-Time Full-Year Full-Time Part-Year. Part-Time - Distance Learning Part-Time - Evening Part-Time - Other Part-Time Open Missing Total

2010/11 %

50,780 890 10 320 8,160 40

84% 1% 0% 1% 14% 0%

2011/12 %

50,540 2,780 50 260 6,050 30

85% 5% 0% 0% 10% 0%

09/10-11/12 %

45,560 1,640 20 240 8,170 40

82% 3% 0% 0% 15% 0%

PERCENTAGE POINT

-5,220 750 10 -70 10 -10

-3% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0%

60,200

100%

59,700

100%

55,710

100%

-4,500

Source: Education Funding Agency (2012)

4.5

These learners studied 263,500 aims. Learners can take multiple aims (some at different levels) which is why these figures differ to those presented above. As Table 15 below shows, 44% of aims studied were at Level 3, with 15% at Level 1, 12% at Level 2 and 9% at Entry Level; however 19% of aims were at an unknown level.

Table 15: Aims studied in 2011/12 at GM FE Colleges and SSFs (FE = enrolments; SSF = aims) 16-19 FE

SSF

ALL PROVISION

FULL-TIME

PART-TIME

NOT APP

TOTAL

TOTAL %

TOTAL

TOTAL %

TOTAL

TOTAL %

Entry Level Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Other Level Level 4

17,220 31,560 28,680 87,260 470 20

5,290 6,670 2,740 2,080 2,600 10

90 70 0 0 30 0

22,600 38,300 31,420 89,340 3,100 30

10% 16% 14% 38% 1% 0%

70 640 1,230 27,670 0 0

0% 2% 4% 91% 0% 0%

22,670 38,940 32,650 117,010 3,100 30

9% 15% 12% 44% 1% 0%

Unknown

46,190

2,190

48,380

21%

690

49,070

19%

211,390

21,580

190

233,170

100%

30,300

100%

263,470

100%

Total

Source: Education Funding Agency (2012)

Type of Provision 4.6

Again

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EFA

funded

provision,

033

Table 16 below summarises resident learner numbers by local authority and type of provision â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Further Education (FE) colleges and School Sixth Forms (SSF). In total there were 63,457 learners aged 16-19 in GM in the year 2011/12: 55,707 (87.8%) of which went to FE Colleges and 7,750 (12.2%) of which went to SSF.17 However there are striking disparities between districts in terms of the proportion attending FE or SSF, with Bury residents far more likely to attend an FE College (94.1% doing so) than in Trafford (where only 61.6% did). These variations can be explained to an extent by the mix and balance of provision located in the different areas.

Note that data is the March 2012 release and may therefore not include all pupils, however most will be captured in this and the below analysis.

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Table 16: Resident learners aged 16-19 by local authority FE SSF N N % Bolton 5,555 79.6% 1,420 Bury 4,067 94.1% 256 Manchester 9,872 90.4% 1,052 Oldham 5,363 90.1% 588 Rochdale 5,101 90.0% 568 Salford 4,787 93.8% 317 Stockport 5,803 93.1% 429 Tameside 4,879 90.7% 499 Trafford 3,364 61.6% 2,098 Wigan 6,916 93.0% 523 GM 55,707 87.8% 7,750

TOTAL N 6,975 4,323 10,924 5,951 5,669 5,104 6,232 5,378 5,462 7,439 63,457

% 20.4% 5.9% 9.6% 9.9% 10.0% 6.2% 6.9% 9.3% 38.4% 7.0% 12.2%

Source: Education Funding Agency (2012)

4.7

There were, in the year 2010/11, 9,270 Apprenticeship starts for those aged under 19, an increase of 1,710 (22.6%) on the previous year and 3,760 (68.2%) on two years previous. Using an estimate for the 16-19 population in each district gives an approximate “rate” of participation in GM: in 2010/11 the highest rates were in Tameside (9.7%), Wigan (9.0%) and Salford (8.5%). However the general growth seen across GM as a whole has been uneven between districts: Manchester moving from the lowest rate of Apprenticeship participation (1.9%) in 2008/09 to the seventh highest (6.0%) in 2010/11 and Bury seeing only a marginal increase of 0.5pp between 2008/09 while other districts improved considerably more. However, provisional data has shown a decrease in Apprenticeship provision to this group in GM and nationally. 18

Table 17: Apprenticeship starts aged under 19 since 2008/09* 2008/09 2009/10 N % N Bolton 700 4.8% 670 Bury 370 3.4% 470 Manchester 610 1.9% 1,040 Oldham 490 4.0% 620 Rochdale 440 3.9% 610 Salford 530 4.5% 770 Stockport 630 4.9% 940 Tameside 560 5.7% 820 Trafford 340 2.9% 360 Wigan 840 5.4% 1,260 GM 5,510 3.9% 7,560 NW 16,360 4.4% 20,840 England 98,200 3.7% 115,500

2010/11 % 5.5% 3.9% 4.0% 5.0% 5.5% 5.9% 5.3% 9.0% 2.9% 9.1% 5.4% 5.7% 4.4%

N 730 450 1,650 750 670 860 1,230 1,050 570 1,310 9,270 23,800 130,500

% 5.2% 3.9% 6.0% 6.6% 7.0% 8.5% 7.8% 9.7% 4.9% 9.0% 6.8% 6.6% 5.1%

Source: New Economy calculations of National Apprenticeship Service (2011) via The Data Service. *Note that percentage figures are calculated using an estimate of the 16-19 population derived from the ONS Annual Population Survey, and are illustrative only

4.8

The vast majority of under 19 Apprenticeship starts were at Intermediate Level (Level 2 equivalent), with 7,170 (77.3%) of GM’s starts, where this was proportionally higher than regionally (75.2%) and nationally (73.9%), as presented in Table 18 below. The

Not reported in detail here due to known significant anomalies in the data

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remaining 2,090 (22.5%) Apprenticeship starts were at Advanced Level (Level 3 equivalent), with no Higher Level starts for this age group in GM in 2010/11. There are however substantial differences between districts in terms of the proportion of Apprenticeships at different levels: 84.8% of Manchesterâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Apprenticeships were at Intermediate Level, but this was as low as 71.6% in Rochdale, where a higher proportion (28.4%) were taking Advanced Level Apprenticeships. Table 18: Apprenticeship starts of those aged under 19 by Level in 2010/11 INTERMEDIATE ADVANCED HIGHER N % N % N % Bolton 550 75.3% 170 23.3% 0 0.0% Bury 350 77.8% 100 22.2% 0 0.0% Manchester 1,400 84.8% 250 15.2% 0 0.0% Oldham 590 78.7% 160 21.3% 0 0.0% Rochdale 480 71.6% 190 28.4% 0 0.0% Salford 670 77.9% 190 22.1% 0 0.0% Stockport 910 74.0% 310 25.2% 0 0.0% Tameside 760 72.4% 290 27.6% 0 0.0% Trafford 450 78.9% 130 22.8% 0 0.0% Wigan 1,010 77.1% 300 22.9% 0 0.0% GM 7,170 77.3% 2,090 22.5% 0 0.0% NW 17,900 75.2% 5,860 24.6% 40 0.2% England 96,500 73.9% 33,800 25.9% 200 0.2%

ALL N 730 450 1,650 750 670 860 1,230 1,050 570 1,310 9,270 23,800 130,500

Source: Department for Education (2012)

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Travel to Learn Patterns 4.9

GM’s FE economy works in some ways like its “real” business and employment economy – for some as much a single travel to learn area as it is a single travel to work area, constrained more by distance than by local authority boundaries.

4.10

At Level 1, GM’s resident learners tend not to travel out of their home district as much as at higher levels, with 1,664 (18.4%) crossing a GM local authority boundary to do so. Proportionally, looking at those districts with most residents studying outside their home borough highlights the 143 (31.8%) Bury residents, the 220 (27.2%) Rochdale residents and the 540 (26.7%) Manchester residents who do so. In absolute terms there are large movements from Manchester into Trafford (129), Salford (122), and Stockport (122) while there are also 95 Rochdale residents learning in Bury, all of which are summarised in diagram form in Figure 10 below.

Figure 10: 16-19 travel to learn patterns at Level 1 in SSF and FE Colleges BURY BOLTON ROCHDALE

WIGAN

OLDHAM

MANCHESTER

SALFORD TAMESIDE

TRAFFORD

STOCKPORT Source: Education Funding Agency (2012)

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4.11

At Level 2 there is more movement, with 2,292 (23.4%) of learners studying outside their home district. Those with the highest proportions learning outside their borough include Manchester with 794 (37.4%), Rochdale with 350 (36.9%) and Oldham with 313 (31.2%) of their learners doing so. The largest absolute movements of learners are from Manchester to Stockport (323), from Manchester to Trafford (209) and Rochdale to Bury (161); these movements are summarised in Figure 11 below.

Figure 11: 16-19 travel to learn patterns at Level 2 in SSF and FE Colleges BURY BOLTON ROCHDALE

WIGAN

OLDHAM

MANCHESTER

SALFORD TAMESIDE

TRAFFORD

STOCKPORT Source: Education Funding Agency (2012)

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4.12

At Level 3 there is a far larger volume of movement (in line with the larger volume of total provision), but the proportion leaving their own district to study is just less than at Level 2, with 10,152 (23.2%) doing so. At this level however, due perhaps to the range of provision available, there are large flows of people leaving certain districts: more than half of Rochdaleâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s resident learners study elsewhere, with 2,129 (55.4%) doing so; while there are also proportionately large numbers leaving Bolton, with 1,839 (37.5%) doing so, and Manchester with 2,271 (34.4%) leaving in order to study. In absolute terms the largest movements are the 1,191 travelling from Rochdale to Bury (although these data predate the opening of Rochdale Sixth Form College so travel to learn flows are now likely to be somewhat different), and the 796 travelling from Trafford to Manchester; the flows between GM districts at Level 3 are illustrated in Figure 12 below.

Figure 12: 16-19 travel to learn patterns at Level 3 in SSF and FE Colleges BURY BOLTON ROCHDALE

WIGAN

OLDHAM

MANCHESTER

SALFORD TAMESIDE

TRAFFORD

STOCKPORT Source: Education Funding Agency (2012)

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Learner Characteristics 4.13

Of GM’s 63,457 resident learners in the year 2011/12: almost exactly half were male and half female and 47,889 (75.5%) are White/British (or variants of this). Analysing the non-White/British learners by both gender and ethnicity reveals some gender disparities within ethnic groups, as summarised in Figure 13 and Figure 14 below, first in FE colleges and then in SSF. There were more Pakistani males for example in education or training in total, and these were disproportionately (accounting for FE’s overwhelming share of provision) more likely to be in FE colleges, whereas there were more female Pakistani learners in SSF.

1,913 2,222

Figure 13: Non-ethnic-British learners in GM by ethnicity and gender in 2011/12 – FE 2,500

2,000

476 438

137 146

215 207

182 208

78 78

434 484 13 23

138 156

264 274

676 718 42 53

477 419

195 173

253 283

133 168

500

236 380

1,000

715 781

1,500

FEMALE

MALE

Source: Education Funding Agency (2012) 331

Figure 14: Non-White-British learners in GM by ethnicity and gender in 2011/12 – SSF 350

60 57

30 13

10 4

32 24

52 48

37 40

12 15

15 9

62 46

36 23

100

150

62 41

129 104

200

7 10

250

85 85

196

300

FEMALE

MALE

Source: Education Funding Agency (2012)

4.14

Table 19 summarises the information available in terms of special needs, learning difficulties and disabilities (LDD), disability, free school meal (FSM) eligibility and

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     4.15

disadvantage (comparable data is not collected across both FE and SSF).19 In summary: 70 (1%) of SSF learners have a statement of SEN, with the highest proportions in Rochdale (1.6%), Manchester (1.5%) and Bury (1.2%). 9,030 (16.2%) of FE learners have LDD, with highest rates in Trafford (20.2%) Stockport (18.3%) and Manchester (17.9%). 5,400 (9.7%) of FE learners have a disability, with the highest proportions in Manchester (10.7%), Tameside (10.4%) and Trafford (10.3%). 390 (5.0%) of SSF learners are FSM eligible, with the highest rates of 13.3% in Manchester, 7.2% in Bolton and 5.1% in Rochdale. 25,000 (44.7%) of FE learners are disadvantaged, with 74.2% in Manchester, 56.4% in Salford and 54.7% in Bolton. Caution should however be exercised when interpreting these figures, as some require declaration, and as such are often a measure of detection as well as prevalence.

Table 19: GM learners with SEN, LDD, disability and FSM eligibility FE SSF SSF FE LEARNERS LEARNERS LEARNERS LEARNERS WITH WHO ARE WITH SEN WITH LDD DISABILITY FSM ELIGIBLE Bolton 0.9% 15.7% 10.0% 7.2% Bury 1.2% 13.0% 8.8% 1.2% Manchester 1.5% 17.9% 10.7% 13.3% Oldham 0.7% 14.2% 8.0% 2.2% Rochdale 1.6% 13.6% 9.2% 5.1% Salford 0.6% 14.6% 9.4% 4.4% Stockport 0.9% 18.3% 10.0% 3.5% Tameside 0.4% 17.6% 10.4% 3.2% Trafford 0.5% 20.2% 10.3% 2.2% Wigan 0.8% 16.0% 9.4% 2.1% GM 0.9% 16.2% 9.7% 5.0%

DISADVANTAGE D FE LEARNERS 54.7% 27.8% 74.2% 53.6% 27.7% 56.4% 4.0% 47.2% 34.2% 39.6% 44.7%

Source: Education Funding Agency (2012)

4.16

Looking at the Level of study of the SEN and LDD groups together shows that with 4,398 learners, almost half (48.3%) study at Level 3; with 1,852 (20.4%) at Level 2; 1,847 (20.3%) at Level 1 and 766 (8.4%) at Entry Level.

Table 20: SSF learners with SEN and FE learners with LDD by level in GM ENTRY 1 2 3 4 UNKNOWN SSF learners with statement of SEN 0 10 0 50 0 0 FE learners with LDD 760 1,840 1,850 4,350 0 230 LDD & SEN 770 1,850 1,850 4,400 0 230

TOTAL 70 9,030 9,100

Source: Education Funding Agency (2012)

4.17

Of those FE students with disability, and apart from the 2,456 (45.5%) grouped under “other medical condition” and the 843 (15.6%) categorised as “other”, the largest groups are emotional and behavioural difficulties, with 572 (10.6%) of disabled young

Note that for disclosure reasons these figures are rounded and suppressed

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people, while 305 (5.6%) have a visual impairment and 290 (5.4%) have a hearing impairment. There are proportionally more disabled learners at Level 3 than for FE learners taken as a whole, with 53.0% at this level compared to 46.2% of all learners. Table 21: Disabled FE learners in GM by disability by Level

Aspergers Syndrome Disability Affecting Mobility Emotional/Behavioural Difficulties Hearing Impairment Mental Health Difficulty Multiple Disabilities Other Other Medical Condition Other Physical Disability Profound Complex Disabilities Temporary Disability Visual Impairment Total with disability No Disability Not Known Grand total

ENTRY 10 10 80 30 20 30 110 60 20 20 0 20 410 940 410 1760

1 40 20 200 60 50 70 200 300 30 0 0 70 1030 5240 1040 7310

2 40 30 120 60 30 50 180 360 30 10 0 40 930 7570 1150 9660

3 100 70 130 140 100 60 340 1690 60 0 10 170 2870 31100 2300 36270

4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 0 30

NOT KNOWN 0 0 50 10 0 20 20 50 0 0 0 10 170 450 80 690

TOTAL 200 130 570 290 200 220 840 2460 140 30 20 310 5400 45320 4990 55710

% OF DISABLED 4% 3% 11% 5% 4% 4% 16% 46% 3% 1% 0% 6% 100% 81% 9% 100%

Source: Education Funding Agency (2012)

4.18

Disadvantaged FE and FSM learners eligible for FSM are more likely to study lower level courses, although SSF students had a higher skills profile than FE, which overrides both these considerations.20 As Figure 15 below summarises, the nondisadvantaged group â&#x20AC;&#x201C; being the largest â&#x20AC;&#x201C; lies very close to the average proportions studying at each level for all students. However disadvantaged FE students were less likely to be studying at Level 3. In SSF, non-FSM eligible pupils where overwhelmingly studying at Level 3 and while FSM eligibility reduced this proportion, this was still a higher proportion than those studying at FE colleges whether disadvantaged or not.

FSM eligibility and disadvantage are not entirely comparable, however both measure material disadvantage

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Figure 15: Level studied by disadvantage (FE) and FSM eligibility (SSF) ALL

11.6%

15.5%

69.0%

1.1%

Not Disadvantaged

11.9%

15.6%

68.6%

1.4%

Disadvantaged

14.7%

19.5%

60.9%

Not FSM Eligible 0.4% 2.2%

97.3%

FSM Eligible 2.6% 9.5% 0%

10%

1.0%

0.0%

87.7% 20%

30%

40%

50%

ENTRY

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 3+

NOT KNOWN

0.3%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

LEVEL 2

Source: Education Funding Agency (2012)

Provider Base 4.19

In total (and including providers to any GM resident) there are 235 providers which are delivering Education Funding Agency (EFA) funded provision to GMâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s 16-19 residents, including 106 SSFs and 129 FE providers; there are 317 providers of Apprenticeships. However there are only 60 providers which deliver to more than 100 GM residents: 29 of these are School Sixth Forms; 31 of are FE providers.

4.20

Of the 106 SSF providers delivering to GM residents, the top 10 provide for 3,218 (41.5%) of learners and the top 20 for 5,322 (68.7%) while there are 52 who provide for 10 or fewer residents. As summarised in Table 22 below, the largest providers to this age group are Turton High School Media Arts College (389 pupils), Sale Grammar School (349 pupils) and Parrs Wood High School (349 pupils).

Table 22: Top 20 SSF providers to 16-19 year olds in GM

Turton High School Media Arts College Sale Grammar School Parrs Wood High School Thornleigh Salesian College St Mary's Catholic High School The Blue Coat CofE School The Crompton House Church of England Academy Canon Slade CofE School Urmston Grammar Academy Altrincham Grammar School for Girls Altrincham Grammar School for Boys Rivington and Blackrod High School Audenshaw School Academy Trust Loreto Grammar School Whalley Range 11-18 High School The King David High School St Ambrose College The Deanery Church of England High School William Hulme's Grammar School

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ENTRY 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 0 0 0 0

3 390 350 340 330 310 310 310 300 290 280 280 270 240 230 180 210 180 170 160

NOT KNOWN 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

043

GRAND TOTAL 390 350 340 330 320 310 310 300 290 280 280 270 240 230 220 210 180 170 160

Stretford Grammar School Total

0 10

0 40

0 200

150 7,500

0 0

150 7,750

Source: Education Funding Agency (2012)

4.21

Table 23 below summarises provision for those GM residents who study outside of GM, with more Bolton residents doing so than residents from the other local authorities, and geographical distance being decisive.

WILMSLOW HIGH SCHOOL

BACUP AND RAWTENSTALL GRAMMAR SCHOOL

KNUTSFORD HIGH SCHOOL

POYNTON HIGH SCHOOL

ALL NON-GM COLLEGES

Bolton Bury Manchester Oldham Rochdale Salford Stockport Tameside Trafford Wigan Total

RIVINGTON AND BLACKROD HIGH SCHOOL

Table 23: Top 5 non-GM-based SSF providers to GM residents

270 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 270

0 0 10 0 0 0 120 0 0 0 120

0 20 0 0 80 0 0 0 0 0 100

0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 70 0 80

0 0 0 0 0 0 50 0 0 0 60

280 30 20 0 100 20 180 10 120 30 780

Source: Education Funding Agency (2012)

4.22

Of the 129 FE providers delivering to Manchester residents aged 16-19, the top 10 account for 32,258 (57.9%) of students, while the top 20 account for 49,815 (89.4%); there are 66 FE Colleges which provide to 10 or fewer students. As Table 24 below shows, the largest providers are Salford City College (5,490 students), The Manchester College (5,130 students) and Bury College (4,010 students).

Table 24: Top 20 FE providers to 16-19 year olds in GM

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ENTRY 170 240 80 210 60 80 120 0 110 120 0 240 20

1 700 1,220 200 240 440 480 410 0 320 550 0 640 20

2 770 1,450 690 820 860 770 790 60 880 680 70 610 160

3 3,840 2,220 3,040 1,630 1,510 1,150 1,070 2,290 990 930 2,040 620 1,740

4 10 10 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

NOT KNOWN 0 0 0 0 0 20 0 0 0 10 40 0 0

044

TOTAL 5,490 5,130 4,010 2,900 2,880 2,520 2,380 2,350 2,310 2,290 2,160 2,110 1,930

Ashton Sixth Form College Holy Cross College Xaverian College Aquinas College Bolton Sixth Form College Winstanley College Economic Solutions Limited St John Rigby Rc Sixth Form College Runshaw College The Rochdale Sixth Form College Crossco (1045) Ymca Training Michael John Training Limited Myerscough College Proco Nw Limited Central Training Uk Limited St Helens College Total

0 0 0 0 0 0 150 10 0 0 20 30 0 0 10 10 10 1,760

0 0 30 10 10 0 580 10 10 0 460 150 130 40 110 110 20 7,310

110 0 60 20 150 0 190 60 30 0 0 10 10 20 10 0 50 9,660

1,820 1,870 1,780 1,720 1,580 1,140 0 960 770 790 0 0 0 140 0 0 60 36,270

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30

0 0 0 0 0 0 150 0 0 0 130 90 110 0 40 40 0 690

1,930 1,870 1,870 1,750 1,740 1,140 1,060 1,040 800 790 620 280 250 200 170 150 140 55,710

Source: Education Funding Agency (2012)

4.23

Table 25 below shows FE provision to GM resident learners, with Runshaw College taking by far the most with 800 residents â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 490 from Bolton and 310 from Wigan. More than half (61%) of those who left GM to learn were Bolton and Wigan residents.

MYERSCOUGH COLLEGE

REASEHEATH COLLEGE

ST HELENS COLLEGE

MACCLESFIELD COLLEGE

ALL NON-GM COLLEGES

Bolton Bury Manchester Oldham Rochdale Salford Stockport Tameside Trafford Wigan Total

RUNSHAW COLLEGE

Table 25: Top 5 non-GM-delivery of FE providers to GM residents

490 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 310 800

40 30 10 10 20 10 10 10 10 20 150

0 0 10 20 10 0 50 20 30 0 130

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 120 130

0 0 10 0 0 0 70 0 10 0 90

590 80 180 90 100 80 180 90 100 760 2,230

Source: Education Funding Agency (2012)

4.24

In 2010/11 there were 317 Apprenticeship providers delivering to GM residents aged under 19: 3,508 (37.8%) starts were in the largest ten providers and 4,999 (53.9%) were in the largest 20 providers, while 217 providers were delivering to ten or fewer GM residents. Table 26 below summarises the largest of these, although note

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concerns over the nature and quality of the Apprenticeships delivered by certain providers. The Business Innovation and Skills Select Committee recently recommended reform in this area.21 4.25

With these caveats however, the largest providers to this age group were the aforementioned Elmfield training, with 879 starts (9.5% of GM’s under 19 provision), followed by Economic Solutions with 714 (7.7%), while all other providers took up substantially less than these shares. More than three quarters of starts were at Intermediate Level, the biggest providers of which were Elmfield with 631 (8.8%), Economic Solutions with 535 (7.5%) and Hull College with 364 (5.1%). However at Advanced Level the largest providers were Zenos with 262 (12.5%) followed again by Elmfield with 248 (11.9%) and Economic Solutions with 178 (8.5%). At Level 4 there were very few starts – approximately 15 in GM, the biggest provider at this level is Kaplan Financial with approximately five starts.

Table 26: Under 19 Apprenticeship Starts by Provider in GM – 2010/11 INTERMEDIATE ADVANCED HIGHER N % N % N % Elmfield Training Ltd 631 8.8% 248 11.9% 0 Economic Solutions Ltd 535 7.5% 178 8.5% 0 Hull College 364 5.1% 1 0.0% 0 The Oldham College 219 3.1% 77 3.7% 0 Zenos Ltd 0 0.0% 262 12.5% 0 Bury College 162 2.3% 74 3.5% 0 Charnwood Training Group Ltd 198 2.8% 1 0.0% 0 Training For Travel Ltd 190 2.6% 7 0.3% 0 Stockport College Of FE and HE 126 1.8% 54 2.6% 0 Bolton College 148 2.1% 31 1.5% 0 Wigan And Leigh College 115 1.6% 61 2.9% 0 Damar Ltd 150 2.1% 14 0.7% 0 The Manchester College 140 2.0% 22 1.1% 0 Citb- Constructionskills 122 1.7% 39 1.9% 0 Knowsley Community College 155 2.2% 0 0.0% 0 The Alternative Hotel Group Ltd 149 2.1% 0 0.0% 0 Training And Manpower Ltd 113 1.6% 30 1.4% 0 Tameside College 103 1.4% 36 1.7% 0 North Lancs. Training Group Ltd 111 1.5% 12 0.6% 0 Michael Mccormack 96 1.3% 23 1.1% 0 GM Total 7,170 100.0% 2,090 100.0% 0 -

ALL N 879 714 365 296 262 236 199 197 181 179 176 164 162 161 155 149 143 139 123 119 9,270

% 9.5% 7.7% 3.9% 3.2% 2.8% 2.5% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.3% 1.3% 100.0%

Source: National Apprenticeship Service (2012)

Qualifications Delivered 4.26 

As Table 27 below shows, there is a relatively small range of qualifications delivered in GM School Sixth Forms (SSF), which is largely focused on A levels: 25,639 (83.4%) of aims studied in 2011/12 were GCE A/AS/A2 levels;

House of Commons Business Innovation and Skills Committee (2012). Apprenticeships. Fifth Report of the Session 2012-13. Available at: http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201213/cmselect/cmbis/83/83.pdf [Accessed 1st November 2012].

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

4,029 (13.3%) were “other” qualifications (more than half of these are QCF aims, many are “extended projects”, however a large number of aims are also unknown); and



627 (2.1%) were GCSEs.

4.27

The largest change between 2009/10 and 2011/12 was in the proportion studying these “other” qualifications, as a proportion making up 6.7pp more of total aims in 2011/12 than in 2009/10. There was also a small fall of 3.8pp in the share of aims which were GNVQ, and a 2.5pp fall in the share which were GCE A/AS/A2 level aims over the three years.

Table 27: Learning aim by type in GM SSFs 2009/10 Diploma GCE A/AS/A2 level GCSE GNVQ precursor NVQ Other TOTAL

49 29,091 771 1,679 50 2,232 33,872

2010/11 37 27,160 726 409 17 3,567 31,916

2011/12 6 25,269 627 351 18 4,029 30,300

09/10 - 11/12 CHANGE N PP -43 -0.1% -3,822 -2.5% -144 -0.2% -1,328 -3.8% -32 -0.1% 1,797 6.7% -3,572 0.0%

Source: Education Funding Agency (2012)

4.28

As would be expected, there is a far wider range of provision at FE colleges in GM, as summarised in

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Table 28 below, however the largest proportion – 48,379 (20.7%) of aims – are of a “not applicable” qualification type. The most popular qualifications were: 

GCE AS level, with 40,837 (20.7%) of aims;



Diplomas, with 28,039 (12.0%) of aims;



Awards, with 256,893 (11.4%) of aims;



GCE A2 level, with 24,648 (10.6%) of aims; and



Functional Skills, with 24,377 (10.5%) of aims.

4.29

There were also a sizeable number of students of GCSE qualifications, with 11,366 (4.9%) of aims.

4.30

Between 2009/10 and 2011/12 the largest changes in the proportion of aims in each qualification were:



The increase of 26,693 (11.4pp) in Award aims;



The decrease of 25,123 (10.6pp) in NVQ/GNVQ Key Skills Unit aims;



The increase of 22,925 (9.9pp) in Diplomas aims; and



The 20,436 (8.8pp) increase in Functional Skills aims.

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Table 28: Learning aim by type in GM FE colleges 09/10 - 11/12 CHANGE 2009/10 Not Applicable GCE AS level Diploma Award GCE A2 Level Functional Skills Other Certificate GCSE Employability Award GCE Applied AS Level Project/Extended Project within Diploma (1419) Edexcel National Diploma (new syllabus) GCE Applied A2 NVQ/GNVQ Key Skills Unit GCE Applied AS Level (Double Award) GCE Applied A2 (Double Award) National Certificate Edexcel First Diploma (new syllabus) National Extended Diploma NVQ National Diploma GCE A level Free Standing Mathematics Qualifications Principal Learning within Diploma (14-19) GCE Applied A Level Diploma (14-19) Edexcel National Certificate (new syllabus) Unitisation Provision Introductory Certificate GCE Applied A Level (Double Award) NVQ/GNVQ additional units International Baccalaureate Edexcel National Award Access to Higher Education Diploma GCSEs in Vocational Subjects Schedule 2(j) course Short Course GCSE First Certificate Advanced Certificate Advanced Diploma Certificate of Competence Conversion Class Code First Diploma GCE A Level (with GCE Advanced Subsidiary) Graded Music Exams 1-8 Higher Diploma Intermediate Certificate Introductory Diploma Other unlisted qualification PTLLS) QCF Units TOTAL

2010/11

2011/12

49,417 41,617 5,114 200 24,101 3,941 25,138 25,203 5,512 466 1,200

52,768 42,608 21,695 11,987 23,877 33,565 17,740 16,726 4,644 4,758 1,286

48,379 40,837 28,039 26,893 24,648 24,377 13,098 11,366 5,116 4,196 1,232

-1,038 -780 22,925 26,693 547 20,436 -12,040 -13,837 -396 3,730 32

-0.1% -0.1% 9.9% 11.4% 0.4% 8.8% -5.0% -5.8% -0.1% 1.6% 0.0%

649 8,190 480 25,566 461 404 549 4,106 199 4,144 240 334 228 267 57 257 2,753 168 652 66 49 38 2,435 2 22 22 1 254 71 7 1 571 100

1,133 4,263 460 4,734 419 226 234 472 268 886 231 249 220 261 65 248 1,115 198 141 38 0 69 291 6 12 11 2 42 0 3 0 854 2

997 689 456 443 359 236 224 199 173 171 136 132 96 93 91 82 81 68 57 51 48 38 24 20 9 7 4 2 0 0 0 0 0

348 -7,501 -24 -25,123 -102 -168 -325 -3,907 -26 -3,973 -104 -202 -132 -174 34 -175 -2,672 -100 -595 -15 -1 0 -2,411 18 -13 -15 3 -252 -71 -7 -1 -571 -100

0.2% -3.2% 0.0% -10.6% 0.0% -0.1% -0.1% -1.7% 0.0% -1.7% 0.0% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% 0.0% -0.1% -1.1% 0.0% -0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.2% 0.0%

0 72 2 104 1,100 1 1

5 0 0 78 14 0 3

0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 -72 -2 -104 -1,100 -1 -1

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0%

236,532

248,915

233,167

-3,365

0.0%

Source: Education Funding Agency (2012)

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Aims by Sector 4.31

Table 29 below summarises the 263,467 aims studied in 2011/12 in GM by Sector Subject Area (SSA), showing that across all provision, 58,223 (22.1%) were preparation for life and work (although this was only 12.1% of SSF aims compared to 23.4% of FE aims); and 58,398 (22.2%) were aims where the SSA was left blank or did not apply. Of the remaining 146,846 aims across both types of provision, the SSAs with the most aims studied were:



science and mathematics, at 35,955 (24.5%);



arts, media and publishing, at 18,775 (12.8%);



languages, literature and culture, at 14,057 (9.6%); and



business, administration and law, at 12,037 (8.2%).

4.32

However there were major differences in the proportion of subjects studied when FE colleges and SSFs are separated: 21.7% of FE aims were in science and maths, however this made up 37.6% of SSF aims; health, public services and care made up 9.9% of aims in FE, but only 2.1% in SSF; and arts, media and publishing aims made up 13.7% in FE but 8.4% in SSF.

Table 29: Aims studied in 2011/12 by SSA in GM FE Colleges and SSFs SCHOOL SIXTH FE COLLEGES FORMS N % N % Agriculture, Horticulture and Animal Care 1,543 1.3% 3 0.0% Arts, Media and Publishing 16,607 13.7% 2,168 8.4% Business, Administration and Law 10,621 8.8% 1,416 5.5% Construction, Planning, Built Environment 2,751 2.3% 49 0.2% Education and Training 55 0.0% 0 0.0% Engineering and Manufacturing Tech. 3,877 3.2% 533 2.1% Health, Public Services and Care 11,964 9.9% 551 2.1% ICT 5,284 4.4% 1,056 4.1% Languages, Literature and Culture 10,724 8.9% 3,333 12.8% Leisure, Travel and Tourism 7,794 6.4% 1,062 4.1% Retail and Commercial Enterprise 4,876 4.0% 133 0.5% Science and Mathematics 26,194 21.7% 9,761 37.6% Social Sciences 7,120 5.9% 2,954 11.4% History, Philosophy and Theology 11,484 9.5% 2,933 11.3% Subtotal 120,894 100.0% 25,952 100.0% Preparation for Life and Work 54,569 23.4% 3,654 12.1% N/A or blank 57,704 24.7% 694 2.3% Total 233,167 100.0% 30,300 100.0%

TOTAL N % 1,546 1.1% 18,775 12.8% 12,037 8.2% 2,800 1.9% 55 0.0% 4,410 3.0% 12,515 8.5% 6,340 4.3% 14,057 9.6% 8,856 6.0% 5,009 3.4% 35,955 24.5% 10,074 6.9% 14,417 9.8% 146,846 100.0% 58,223 22.1% 58,398 22.2% 263,467 100.0%

Source: Education Funding Agency (2012)

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4.33 4.34

Apprenticeship provision is summarised by SSA in Table 30 below; this shows variation between provision in each sector by level. Across all levels, the highest proportion of starts was in the business administration and law SSA, with 2,728 (29.5%) of starts, compared with 1,554 (16.8%) in engineering, 1,336 (14.4%) in retail and commercial enterprise and 1,261 (13.6%) in leisure, travel and tourism. Certain SSAs however had large concentrations at Intermediate Level: education and training (96.7%) and leisure, travel and tourism (91.3%) for example; whereas others were concentrated in Advanced Level provision, such as arts, media and publishing (87.5%) and ICT (82.5%).

Table 30: Apprenticeship provision to under 19s by SSA INTERMEDIATE N % Agriculture, Horticulture and Animal Care 62 0.9% Arts, Media and Publishing 3 0.0% Business, Administration and Law 2,222 31.0% Construction, Planning, Built Environment 589 8.2% Education and Training 29 0.4% Engineering and Manufacturing Tech 1,207 16.8% Health, Public Services and Care 725 10.1% ICT 68 0.9% Leisure, Travel and Tourism 1,151 16.0% Retail and Commercial Enterprise 1,117 15.6% Grand Total 7,170 100.0%

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ADVANCED N % 11 0.5% 21 1.0% 494 23.8% 264 12.7% 1 0.0% 346 16.7% 286 13.8% 320 15.4% 110 5.3% 219 10.6% 2,090 100.0%

HIGHER N % 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 12 92.3% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 1 7.7% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 100.0%

051

TOTAL N % 73 0.8% 24 0.3% 2,728 29.5% 853 9.2% 30 0.3% 1,554 16.8% 1,011 10.9% 388 4.2% 1,261 13.6% 1,336 14.4% 9,270 100.0%

5 PERFORMANCE 5.1

This section analyses the quality of provision across GM by mode and district across several measures: attainment of Level 2, Level 2 including English and maths, and Level 3 by age 19, also looking at the Key Stage 5 (KS5) indicators of Average Point Score (APS) and top grades, as well as success and retention of learners.

KEY POINTS: 

GM attainment of Level 2 by age 19 is comparable with regional and national averages at approximately 81%, having closed the gap with national performance in the last three years; however neither the performance nor its improvement were uniform across GM districts and notably Rochdale fell behind. The gap between learners eligible for Free School Meals (FSM) and those not is larger in GM than nationally, though as might be expected this varies substantially by GM district.



In terms of attainment of Level 2 including English and maths by age 19, GM performs comparably with the country as a whole, though underperforming the region; GM’s performance in this regard has again shown a substantial improvement in closing the gap with the national performance to the 0.1 percentage point where it currently stands. The gap between FSM and non-FSM pupils at this level is larger than when English and maths are excluded, and is a larger gap than seen nationally.



Over half (52.8%) of GM’s 19 year olds in 2011 had attained a Level 3, which is less than regionally or nationally, although performance varies across GM with some outperforming the country, and others underperforming by a fair margin. By FSM eligibility, GM’s non-FSM pupils are only slightly poorer performing than nationally, while its FSM eligible pupils fall behind those in the country as a whole by a larger margin, leaving a gap between FSM and non-FSM in GM larger than nationally.



In terms of Average Point Score (APS) per student, several GM districts perform better than the national average while some (are a long way behind and others have deteriorated between 2008 and 2011.



Looking at APS per entry shows again that several districts outperform the national average – though there is a different pattern to APS per student, with all districts improving (some only marginally).



Success rates in GM exceed the national average in almost all of the ten districts, with only one underperforming; six of the ten saw an improvement over the three year period and five improved faster than the national average.



Retention rates in GM were higher than nationally in seven of the ten districts, and rates improved over the three year period in six districts.

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Attainment of Level 2 and 3 by Age 19 5.2

Attainment at age 19 is strongly correlated to performance aged 16: analysis shows that in GM 74% of those who attained Level 2 at 16 attained Level 3 by age 19, whereas for those who didn’t attain Level 2 at 16 this was only 15%; this is the case nationally also. Attainment of GCSEs including English and maths is even more decisive: 82% of those attaining a Level 2 at 16 including GCSE English and Mathematics went on to attain Level 3 at age 19. For those attaining Level 2 but without English and maths this was only 22%.22 GM’s performance at KS4 has already been analysed, below is the performance by age 19 which in many ways therefore is a lagging indicator, as it reflects in large part the KS4 performance of schools three years previous, as well as the contribution provision has made between 16 and 19.

5.3

Of the 36,093 young people in GM reaching age 19 in 2010/11, 29,193 (80.9%) had attained Level 2. Attainment of Level 2 by age 19 in GM is now comparable with (though slightly less than) regional and national averages which are 81.2% and 81.0% respectively. There has been a 7.0pp improvement in this proportion in the last three years, a higher rate of improvement than nationally, which saw the gap between GM’s performance and the country as a whole closing from 2.2pp to 0.1pp. At a district level rates range from 88.4% to 75.4%, with improvements over the three years ranging from 9.4pp to 4.1pp.

Figure 16: Attainment of Level 2 by Age 19

70%

76.1% 78.6% 81.0%

75.2% 78.1% 81.2%

73.9% 76.8% 80.9%

73.1% 76.9% 81.5%

70.9% 74.2% 78.0%

79.0% 79.4% 83.1%

68.8% 74.2% 76.7%

70.7% 74.6% 75.4%

75%

73.9% 77.2% 79.6%

80%

70.3% 72.9% 79.7%

85%

77.3% 80.8% 83.3%

90%

74.1% 76.2% 82.5%

95%

83.7% 85.1% 88.4%

100%

65% 60%

19 at the end of 2008/09

19 at the end of 2009/2010

19 at the end of 2010/11

Source: Department for Education (2012)

5.4

Factoring in deprivation – via the proxy of Free School Meal (FSM) eligibility – reveals that in GM, as nationally, there is a gap in attainment of Level 2 by age 19 between those eligible for FSM and those not, summarised in Figure 17 below. In GM there is an advantage of 20.5pp between the non-FSM eligible pupils (85.2%) and those eligible (63.9%), whereas in the North West this was more (21.2pp), and in England it was less (18.7pp). Compared to the national averages, GM’s FSM-eligible pupils underperform by 1.2pp whereas the non-FSM-eligible over perform by 0.5pp. At a

New Economy (2011). 14-19 Education and Training: Greater Manchester’s Performance. Report for Greater Manchester 14-19 Sub-Regional Group. Manchester, New Economy. Available at:

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district level, gaps in attainment between the two groups range from 27.7pp to 15.1pp; across GM as a whole, there is a 31.3pp difference between the best district’s nonFSM learners and the worst district’s FSM learners.

NON-FSM

65.2%

64.1%

83.8%

85.2%

63.9%

84.4%

85.5%

59.0%

90.3%

FSM

72.2%

63.3%

58.4%

81.4%

86.1%

84.5%

64.7%

81.9%

60.8%

82.9%

66.1%

65.3%

80.4%

66.5%

85.0% 63.6%

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

85.6%

Figure 17: Attainment of Level 2 by those aged 19 in 2010/11 by FSM eligibility

GAP

Source: Department for Education (2012)

5.5

Looking at attainment of Level 2 including English and Maths by age 19: at 59.6% GM slightly underperforms the regional (60.2%) and slightly below the national (59.8%) averages. However, GM’s performance has improved by 7.6pp over the three years, faster than regionally or nationally, meaning that the gap with national performance has closed from 1.4pp to only 0.1pp. At a district level performance ranges from 72.8 to 50.9%. All districts however improved, ranging 14.6pp to 3.9pp over the period, with some seeing their gap with national performance widen.

19 in 09

19 in 10

53.4% 56.7% 59.8%

53.0% 56.6% 60.2%

52.1% 55.8% 59.6%

53.7% 56.6% 58.6%

66.1% 69.8% 72.8% 50.4% 55.3% 56.5%

60.9% 61.9% 64.8%

43.6% 50.6% 58.2%

48.1% 53.3% 54.7%

51.0% 55.8% 58.4%

42.8% 45.8% 50.9%

59.1% 64.9% 68.0%

80.0% 75.0% 70.0% 65.0% 60.0% 55.0% 50.0% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0%

49.9% 51.4% 59.9%

Figure 18: Attainment of Level 2 including English and maths by age 19

19 in 11

Source: Department for Education (2012)

5.6

At GM level the gap in attainment of Level 2 including English and Maths by age 19, there was a gap of 28.3pp between those eligible for FSM and those not. This gap is

http://neweconomymanchester.com/downloads/1275-14-19-Education-and-Training-in-GM-pdf [Accessed 1st November 2012]

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smaller than the regional gap (30.6pp) but larger than the national gap (27.3pp), however both groups performed better than the national averages: for non-FSM by 1.7pp and for FSM by 0.7pp. In terms of the gap between the two groups’ attainment within districts, this ranged from 36.1pp to 20.5pp; across GM as a whole there was a 48.8pp the best district’s non-FSM learners and the worst districts FSM learners.

35.9%

34.5%

63.2%

65.1%

64.9% 26.9%

30%

36.6%

45.4%

38.8%

34.6%

63.0%

75.8%

59.3%

68.9% 37.0%

63.7%

59.0%

61.6%

32.7%

40%

38.0%

50%

37.4%

37.6%

60%

42.5%

70%

64.2%

80%

71.0%

90%

63.5%

Figure 19: Attainment of Level 2 including English and maths by those aged 19 in 2011 by FSM eligibility

20% 10% 0%

NON-FSM

FSM

GAP

Source: Department for Education (2012)

5.7

Of the same cohort referred to above (the 36,093 young people reaching age 19 in 2010/11): 19,062 (52.8%) attained Level 3 – a lower proportion than regionally (53.3%) or nationally (54.5%). However again the gap with national performance was closed somewhat, from 3.8pp to 1.7pp in three years (GM saw a 7.1pp increase while regionally this was 6.6pp and nationally it was 5.0pp). At a district level rates of attainment range from 65.6% to 43.0%. In the past three years there have been improvements of up to 8.5pp, although some undershot the national increase, rising by as little as 4.5pp over the period.

49.5% 52.0% 54.5%

46.7% 49.9% 53.3%

45.7% 48.6% 52.8%

53.7% 54.0% 58.2%

39.4% 43.6% 47.9%

40%

37.1% 41.3% 43.0%

45%

39.8% 42.5% 45.4%

50%

43.0% 49.6% 50.8%

55%

43.7% 45.4% 51.1%

60%

50.3% 55.0% 58.8%

65%

48.1% 49.5% 56.4%

70%

42.9% 46.1% 50.4%

59.1% 60.3% 65.6%

Figure 20: Attainment of Level 3 by Age 19

35% 30%

19 at the end of 2008/09

19 at the end of 2009/2010

19 at the end of 2010/11

Source: Department for Education (2012)

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5.8

Breaking down Level 3 attainment by FSM eligibility shows that those not entitled to FSM again perform best: in GM the proportion of non-FSM pupils attaining Level 3 by age 19 is 56.3% – less than regionally (57.4%) and nationally (56.6%), and for FSMeligible pupils the rate is 30.0%, more than regionally (28.7%) but less than nationally (31.8%). The gap between the two groups is 26.3pp in GM, which is lower than regionally (28.7pp) but higher than nationally (24.7pp). At a district level, the largest gap in performance was 34.8pp while at its smallest it was 18.9pp. The gap between the best performing non-FSM pupils and the worst performing FSM pupils is 45.8pp.

56.6%

31.8%

28.7%

56.3% 30.0%

34.2%

23.7%

54.8%

69.0% 27.5%

26.2%

51.8%

59.5%

51.1%

23.2%

53.6%

51.3%

51.9% 27.6%

30%

34.0%

40%

32.4%

50%

31.1%

60%

57.8%

70%

34.1%

80%

60.6%

90%

57.4%

Figure 21: Attainment of Level 3 by those aged 19 in 2011 by FSM eligibility

20% 10% 0%

NON-FSM

FSM

GAP

Source: Department for Education (2012)

Average Point Score and Top Grade Attainment at Key Stage 5 5.9

In 2011/12, 19,312 candidates were entered for Level 3 qualifications at least equivalent in size to one GCE/Applied GCE A Level; this has increased by 1,306 (7.3%) since 2009/10 (figures are still provisional). Average Point Score (APS) measures this achievement, and is presented both by student (providing a measure of the average number of A-level equivalents studied and the grades achieved) and by entry (giving an indication of the average A-level grade achieved by students at an institution).

5.10

APS per student in GM was 715.4 in 2011/12, which was lower than the North West (721.3) and the average for all England provision (717.7), but higher than average for England’s maintained provision (698.8). This has deteriorated since 2009/10 by 22.7pp, however this change is less than regionally (28.2pp) and in both England’s maintained provision average (27.7pp) and England’s all provision average (27.1pp); this means that despite declining in the three years to 2011/12, GM’s gap with national performance closed from 6.7 points to 2.3 points.

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2009/10

2010/11

744.8 745.9 717.7

726.5 728.2 698.8

749.5 752.9 721.3

738.1 734.1 715.4

776.0 753.2 775.1

853.2 850.7 825.9 725.7 717.8 675.9

745.9 749.9 733.7

682.9 688.1 677.1

604.9 574.2 657.7

728.2 701.4 652.3

704.1 711.3 686.7

771.6 769.5 754.8

1,000 950 900 850 800 750 700 650 600 550 500

686.9 716.6 673.0

Figure 22: APS per student by students aged 16-18 achieving all Level 3 qualifications*

2011/12

Source: Department for Education (2012) *2011/12 data is currently provisional

5.11

The average APS per entry in GM districts was 208.8,23 lower than regionally (210.2) and nationally (211.8) but higher than the national maintained sector (208.3). Over the period there was again deterioration in GM, falling by 1.2 between 2009/10 and 2011/12. However the larger deteriorations regionally, and in Englandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s averages for both the maintained sector and across all provision, meant that the gap between GMâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s performance and England as a whole fell from 4.3 points to 3.0 points.

2009/10

2010/11

214.4 216.2 211.8

211.1 213.1 208.3

212.7 215.4 210.2

210.1 212.5 208.8

216.5 216.7 215.1

223.0 224.7 221.5

202.6 208.6 202.7

207.0 206.6 203.5

223.1 226.6 217.7 190.9 194.8 196.4

217.8 220.1 212.2

211.5 209.6 205.6

210 200 190 180 170 160 150

209.5 213.6 211.8

240 230 220

199.0 203.5 201.9

Figure 23: APS per entry by students aged 16-18 achieving all Level 3 qualifications*

2011/12

Source: Department for Education (2012) *2011/12 data is currently provisional

5.12

Figure 24 below illustrates the supply of Level 3 skills, in terms of both the number of individuals and abilities across GM, by assigning a KS5 point score to each neighbourhood, and thus highlighting both neighbourhoods with high densities of learners at this level, high scoring individuals and combinations of both.

Note that this is unweighted and illustrative only, as figures on the number of entries are not available.

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Figure 24: Total QCDA point score by Lower Level SOA in GM

Source: Department for Education (2012)

5.13

There were 11,905 students aged 16 to 18 entered for GCE/Applied GCE A levels and Double Awards in GM in 2011/12. 1,135 (9.5%) of these achieved three or more A*-A grades, compared to 9.6% in the North West, 9.7% in the national maintained sector alone and 12.5% across all national provision. This rate fell by 1.1pp between 2009/10 and 2011/12 as at the regional and national level, but it fell by more in GM, meaning the gap increased by 0.8pp to 3.0pp with the national average for all provision.

12.8 13.1 12.5

5.3 6.3 4.9

7.6 6.9 6.8

5.4 5.4 4.5

9.2 8.7 7.1 3.9 2.9 3.2

9.3 9.9 9.6

6.7 6.3 6.1

9.0 9.9 8.9

15.3 13.8 14.6

9.8 10.2 9.7

10.4 10.9 9.6

10.6 10.3 9.5

26.0 24.2 22.4

Figure 25: Percentage of students achieving 3 or more A*-A grades at GCE/Applied GCE A level and Double Awards

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

Source: Department for Education (2012)

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Success and Retention Rates for 16-18 year olds 5.14

In 2010/11 success rates in GM exceeded the national average (82.0%) in seven of its ten districts, ranging from 86.4% to 80.9%. Between 2008/09 and 2010/11 six of the districts improved, while over the same period, national success improved (by 1.4pp),

80.6% 81.1% 82.0%

86.3% 84.9% 86.2%

81.6% 82.2% 83.9%

84.9% 80.9% 80.6%

82.8% 84.0% 84.0%

86.4%

83.2%

84.6% 84.3%

79.6%

80%

81.0%

82%

82.5% 81.9% 80.9%

84%

82.3% 82.3%

86%

83.0% 80.5% 82.2%

88%

79.5%

90%

85.3% 87.4% 85.2%

Figure 26: Education and Training Success Rates for 16-18 year olds

78% 76%

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

Source: Skills Funding Agency (2012)

5.15

Retention was higher than nationally (89.5%) in seven of GMâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s districts in 2010/11 and ranged from 92.5% to 87.6%. Six of GMâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s ten districts improved between 2008/09 and 2010/11, and changes ranged from a 2.4pp increase in retention rates, to a 2.7pp decrease.

Figure 27: Education and Training Retention Rates for 16-18 year olds

89.3% 89.5% 89.5%

92.0% 91.0% 91.6%

89.0% 90.3% 88.9%

89.7% 90.4% 90.3%

91.3% 91.3% 90.8%

90.8% 90.7% 91.1%

91.9% 90.7%

88.3%

90.3% 90.1% 87.6%

88%

88.6% 89.9% 87.9%

92%

89.8% 89.2% 89.8%

96%

92.2% 93.8% 92.5%

100%

84% 80%

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

Source: Skills Funding Agency (2012)

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6 PROGRESSION This report now looks at the crucial stage in a young person’s education and training: their transition, if successful, into education or employment. First progression to and participation in university is analysed, before moving on to the employment option many take, and which sectors and occupations GM’s young people tend to work in. Finally the results of failure at this stage will be presented: the worklessness that is so problematic at this time, including both the job-seeking unemployed, and those economically inactive due to illness/disability or having children to take care of.

6.1

KEY POINTS: 

There is a range of positive destination outcomes from FE providers in GM, but also variation in the type of positive progression – into learning or employment – by providers.



GM has one of the highest concentrations of HE provision in Europe, and this is reflected by the large number of residents who choose to also study in a GM HE institution. However participation is influenced by deprivation, and despite improvements many of the most deprived wards have extremely low rates of participation which contrast with the high rates elsewhere in GM. It is unclear as yet how the reforms to tuition fees will affect GM specifically, but nationally there has been a small fall in applications and a shift in terms of the subjects applied for also.



Young people tend to – both by choice and necessity – work in flexible, casual sectors and in occupations with low levels of responsibility and skill. In the context of long-term but significant industrial and occupational change, with increasing demand for higher level skills, minimizing the disadvantage young people face on entry into the labour market – both in terms of qualifications and the crucial “soft” skills – is a priority. It is concerning therefore that employers report GM’s young people being particularly poorly prepared for work at various stages of leaving education.



GM has a high proportion of both job-seeking unemployed and inactive young people, and while the former have risen in number significantly since the recession, the latter has been a persistent structural problem.

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Progression from FE Providers 6.2

FE providers make up the vast majority of provision in GM, and the largest are presented in Table 31 below. While the data is incomplete, the range of positive destination outcomes for the top 20 providers ranges from 97% to 82%. In terms of the proportion in employment there is a far greater disparity, from 70% to 13%, and in terms of the proportion in learning the range is from 95% to 56%.

Table 31: Destinations of FE learners completing government funded programme in 2009/10 in the following year (2010/11)

Salford City College The Manchester College Bury College Trafford College Wigan And Leigh College The Oldham College Hopwood Hall College Oldham Sixth Form College Stockport College Of FE and HE Tameside College Loreto College Bolton College Cheadle And Marple Sixth Form College Ashton Sixth Form College Holy Cross College Xaverian College Aquinas College Bolton Sixth Form College Winstanley College Manchester Solutions

GRAND TOTAL 5,487 5,133 4,014 2,900 2,884 2,517 2,383 2,347 2,306 2,287 2,155 2,108 1,931 1,929 1,874 1,871 1,748 1,741 1,143 1,057

POSITIVE DESTINATION 82% 84% 82% 87% 86% 85% 96% 85% 89% 82% 97% 92% 97% 94% 96% -

EMPLOYMENT 35% 37% 32% 45% 47% 44% 51% 13% 36% 43% 19% 39% 35% 26% 19% 23% 29% 20% 17% 70%

IN LEARNING 63% 57% 56% 63% 84% 65% 89% 63% 71% 71% 89% 87% 85% 86% 95% -

Source: Department for Business Innovation and Skills (2012)

Progression to University 6.3

There is clear evidence that gaining a degree qualification results in both an increase in the probability of being employed later in life, and in higher lifetime average earnings: the premium associated with obtaining a higher education qualification is estimated to be approximately 23.5% compared to those who possess two or more A-levels. Despite tuition fee increases, the evidence suggest that the majority of Higher Education (HE) courses remain a good financial investment for those young people looking to pursue careers which require them.

6.4

Five HE institutions have a presence in GM24 and so it is not surprising that almost three-quarters (70%) of those GM residents who go on to HE, live and study within Greater Manchester. However, as Figure 28 below shows, many districts have very low rates of participation for the most deprived. There is particularly striking polarisation in Stockport, which had the lowest participation rates for deprived young people (11%),

These are: The University of Manchester, Manchester Metropolitan University, Salford University, Bolton University and the Royal Northern College of Music, and excludes the Regional Centre of the Open University.

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yet one of the highest overall participation rates (37%). Across GM, and all its constituent districts, the rate of participation increased between 2002 and 2009 (latest data) by 3pp across GM as a whole, ranging from 6pp increase in Trafford to a 2pp increase in Bury and Stockport.

45%

Figure 28 Young Participation Rate (YPR) in HE for bottom IMD quintile and overall (2002-2009) 50%

30%

27% 18%

24%

12%

15%

23%

11%

15%

25%

29% 21%

28%

25%

35%

13%

20%

25%

20%

30%

24%

35%

19%

33%

40%

37%

45%

10% 5% 0%

BOTTOM IMD QUINTILE

OVERALL

Source: Aim-higher North West using HESA & ONS Data (2011)

6.5

The reforms to the funding of HE have had an effect on participation, however drawing conclusions at a local level is not yet possible. Analysis from UCAS reveals that the number of applicants from the UK decreased by 8.7% overall in 2012. For UK 18-year-olds specifically, the decrease was of 3.6% compared to 2011, representing a drop of just under 8,500 people. There has also been a shift in the subjects demanded, with new applications in creative arts and design down 16%; architecture down 16%; and communications and social sciences courses have also registered double-digit drops in applications. However, degree courses which lead to other professional careers (for example medicine and dentistry, law and engineering) were among those which did not reflect the overall decline in applications.

Transition Into Employment 6.6

The need for experience and higher level qualifications can make entering work difficult for young people, while many will be combining employment with study. This is reflected in the sectors young people tend to work in, summarised in Figure 29 below. Proportionally far more young people tend to work in wholesale, retail and repair of vehicles and accommodation and food services, but far fewer in health and social work, public admin and defence, education and health compared with the average for older workers.

6.7

The nature of this employment is likely to be temporary and low-skilled, and the sectors â&#x20AC;&#x201C; while strong and important to the GM economy â&#x20AC;&#x201C; are not those which will show the most growth in either employment or value added going forward. In order to ensure that young people benefit from, and contribute to, the substantial economic

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growth for example in business services and finance, managing transitions into these sectors will be crucial. The labour market into which young people progress has changed dramatically from 20 or even 10 years ago, a challenge that education and training provision must acknowledge, and is to a large extent beginning to reflect. Figure 29 Share of employed people in each sector, by age, 2011 – GM (workplace) 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

A Agriculture, forestry and fishing B Mining and quarrying C Manufacturing D Electricity, gas, air cond supply E Water supply, sewerage, waste F Construction G Wholesale, retail, repair of vehicles H Transport and storage I Accommodation and food services J Information and communication K Financial and insurance activities L Real estate activities M Prof, scientific, technical activ. N Admin and support services O Public admin and defence P Education Q Health and social work R Arts, entertainment and recreation S Other service activities T Households as employers U Extraterritorial organisations

11.2%

7.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.9% 0.4%

7.3% 6.4% 13.3%

3.0% 3.3%

26.9%

6.3% 14.9%

2.8% 2.7% 3.9% 3.4% 0.9% 0.7% 6.0% 3.7% 4.8% 3.9% 6.3% 2.5% 11.7%

6.0%

16.0%

9.3% 1.8%

4.0% 2.6% 3.8%

0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%

25-64

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

16-24

Source: Annual Population Survey (2012)

6.8

As Figure 30 below shows – and as might be expected – young people tend to be disproportionately employed in elementary occupations, contrasting with those aged 25 and older, more of whom work in professional and associate professional occupations as well as administrative and secretarial occupations. To a large extent this is to be expected – much of this work will be part-time, and undertaken alongside study, or may be entry level positions which will lead on to higher level occupations over time. Ensuring that they do so, through training and appropriate opportunities is clearly a priority, given that these higher level occupations will see the most growth going forward.

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Figure 30 Share of employed people in each occupation, by age, 2011 – GM (workplace) 9.5%

Elementary Process, Plant And Machine Operatives

4.4%

25.5%

8.2% 7.4%

Sales And Customer Service

18.8% 10.5% 12.2%

Caring, Leisure And Other Service

9.4% 7.9%

Skilled Trades

12.0% 10.1%

Administrative And Secretarial Associate Professional And Technical

11.6%

Professional

14.1% 19.3%

6.4%

Managers, Directors And Senior Officials

2.9% 0%

9.7% 10%

25+

15%

20%

25%

30%

16-24

Source: Annual Population Survey (2012)

6.9

The difficulty of young people’s entry to the labour market is also compounded by the shift in the economy towards micro and small sized enterprises, where recruitment practices are dominated more by informal word-of-mouth and social networks/contacts, rather than through more formal human resource processes of job adverts and recruitment agencies typically found in larger firms.

6.10

Research shows25 that only a small proportion of UK employers recruit young people direct from education. For example, recent evidence shows that six per cent of employers had recruited a school leaver, 11 percent had recruited a young person aged 17 or 18, and 10 percent had recruited a graduate aged under 24 to their first job.26 Moreover there is evidence to suggest that young people do not get enough good quality contact with employers, with research suggesting that work experience placements are too often short, of poor quality, with young people given little to do and the placement poorly linked to their wider education or the advice and guidance they receive. 27

6.11

The importance of workplace exposure is echoed in the European literature and OECD analysis28 demonstrates that those countries with education systems which offer combinations of classroom learning and workplace exposure typically experience much

J Shury, M Winterbotham, B Davies, K Oldfield, M Spilsbury, S Constable (2010), National Employer Skills Survey for England 2009: Key Findings Report. London, UKCES. Available at: http://www.ukces.org.uk/assets/ukces/docs/publications/evidence-report-13-ness-key-findings-2009.pdf st [Accessed 1 November 2012] 26 UK Commission on Employment and Skills (2011). The Youth Inquiry Employers’ Perspectives on Tackling Youth Unemployment. London, UKCES. Available at: http://www.ukces.org.uk/assets/ukces/docs/publications/the-youth-inquiry-final-report.pdf [Accessed 1st November 2012] 27 Wolf (2011) Review of Vocational Education. 28 J Britton, P Gregg, I Macmillan, S Mitchell (2011) The Early Bird: Preventing Young People from Becoming a NEET Statistic. Department of Economics and CMPO, University of Bristol. Bristol, Praxis: Tomorrows People.

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lower youth unemployment rates. There is also evidence to suggest that any attachment to the labour market, both in the form of work experience or through parttime work whilst still at school, is strongly associated with the individual remaining attached to the labour market on completion of formal education.29 6.12

6.13

Ofsted have undertaken research into the key features of good practice in colleges and sixth form colleges with regard to the promotion of enterprise-related skills and entrepreneurial capability among 16–19-year-old students following vocational courses30. While these findings are based on vocational courses for 16 to 19 year olds in colleges they have wider applicability across the education and training sector. Key factors in the successful promotion of enterprise-related skills and entrepreneurial capability include: 

the commitment of the principal and senior leaders to promoting enterprise-related skills and entrepreneurial capability;



an extensive enterprise-related provision that was not a ‘bolt-on’ but was an integral and coherent part of students’ experience while at college, within their mainstream assignment work, tutorial sessions, additional work-related activities and experiences, and work placements;



highly skilled staff who had excellent knowledge and experience, maintained strong links with their sectors and were fully committed to promoting and developing students’ enterprise-related skills in the context of their subject specialism;



teaching that consistently promoted enterprise-related skills regardless of the subject;



very strong links with local employers that informed, supported and enhanced curriculum provision, facilitated high-quality work experience, and ensured that students were made fully aware of the professional or business context of their studies and the skills and attributes required;



learning that took place in facilities and environments that modelled industry standards and provided students with experiences that reflected real employment situations; and



good outcomes for students in relation to success rates in formal qualifications and the successful development of enterprise-related skills and entrepreneurial capability as reflected in student successes in a variety of enterprising contexts, as well as progression to higher education, further training, employment or selfemployment.

Although the proportion of young people coming out of education with formal qualifications in recent years has increased markedly, employers continue to state that many are not well prepared for work. This is particularly critical at this point in the economic cycle where high youth unemployment is a major policy concern.

A Mann (2012). It’s who you meet: Why Employer Contacts at School Make a Difference to the Employment Prospects of Young Adults. London, Education and Employers Taskforce. 30 Ofsted (2012). Promoting enterprise in vocational courses for 16-19 year old students in colleges: A good practice report. London: Ofsted

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6.14

Results from the National Employer Skills Survey, from the UK Commission on Employment and Skills (UKCES) show how GM compares with other Core City (and London) LEP areas in terms of recruitment of young people. This shows that GM compares reasonably well in terms of the proportion of employers recruiting young people aged 17-18 to their first job from school, with 12% of employers doing so compared to 11% nationally. For the other groups GM performs towards the middle of the range in terms of these LEP areas and on recruitment of 16 year olds straight from school performs better than nationally by 2pp, and for HEI leavers by 1pp.

25%

11% 13% 10% 12%

12% 11% 14% 11%

11% 9% 11% 14%

North Eastern

Sheffield City Region

West of England

9% 9%

10% 13% 12% 13%

11% 12% 11% 13% Greater Manchester

9% 9% 10% 11%

8% 9% 11% 12%

10%

Greater Birmingham and Solihull

15%

12% 13% 11% 11%

20%

9% 11% 11% 12%

21%

Figure 31: Proportion of employers who had recruited anyone to their first job on leaving school, college or university in the last 2-3 years

16 YEAR OLDS TO FIRST JOB FROM SCHOOL

17-18 YEAR OLDS TO FIRST JOB FROM SCHOOL

17-18 YEAR OLDS TO FIRST JOB FROM FE

FROM UNIVERSITY OR OTHER HEI

Total

London

Liverpool City Region

Leeds City Region

Derbyshire & Nottinghamshire,

Source: National Employer Skills Survey 2011, UKCES (2012)

6.15

With the above in mind, it is concerning that, as summarised in Table 32, compared to employers in other Core City LEP areas and London, employers in GM are less likely to think that young people leaving school at 16 and leaving university are well prepared for work. The perception of employers for those young people recruited from college fared better by comparison. Although these results are based on a survey, the sample sizes are large enough that we can be confident that the results are a fair reflection of employer opinion.

Table 32: Percentage very well prepared/well prepared for work in Englandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Core LEP areas and London 17-18 16 YEAR YEAR OLDS TO OLDS TO FIRST FIRST 17-18 YEAR JOB JOB OLDS TO FROM FROM FROM FIRST JOB UNIVERSITY SCHOOL SCHOOL FROM FE OR OTHER HEI Derbyshire & Nottinghamshire, 61% 66% 74% 86% Greater Birmingham and Solihull 59% 69% 72% 84% Greater Manchester 54% 68% 76% 83% Leeds City Region 59% 69% 80% 89% Liverpool City Region 61% 72% 70% 87%

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London North Eastern Sheffield City Region West of England Total

60% 60% 55% 55% 59%

64% 65% 64% 71% 66%

70% 72% 77% 73% 74%

81% 85% 89% 85% 83%

Source: National Employer Skills Survey 2011, UKCES (2012)

6.16

Unprompted, employers responded overwhelmingly that it is was not education, or even numeracy and literacy that are lacking in poorly prepared individuals: even for those coming straight from education at age 16, only 5% of employers which recruited young people listed this as a problem, diminishing further with age. In fact, as in the other LEP areas it was a lack of working world/life experience or maturity that was found to be lacking at every stage in recruitment, particularly on leaving school at 16. GM compares particularly poorly to the other areas in these terms for those 17-18 year olds recruited to first job from school and for HEI leavers.

Youth Worklessness: Unemployment and Inactivity 6.17

As the previous analysis demonstrates, youth unemployment is a major economic and social issue. Young people have suffered disproportionately in the current labour market downturn. The large number of young people unemployed is in large part down to the recession and demand side issues within GM’s economy. However youth unemployment did begin to rise in 2005, well before the recession, and as noted earlier in this report there is a “frictional” unemployment (that resulting from the time spent moving into work from a previous job or other destinations) and a “structural” unemployment – a mismatch between the skills supply of young people and the economic demand for skills.

6.18

In 2012 there are 351,100 16-24 year olds in GM, 287,200 of which are aged 18-24. Figure 32 below summarises the population in terms of their relationship to the labour market:



214,300 (61.0%) are economically active – in work or actively looking for work;



136,800 (39.0%) are economically inactive – out of work and not looking for work;



158,100 (45.0%) are in employment; and



56,200 (16.0%) are unemployed – out of work and actively looking for work.

6.19

Crucially, many of those who are “economically inactive” are actually students – 101,600 18-24 year olds in GM are in full-time education, however some of these will be classed as employed (they will be working while studying), others as unemployed (actively looking for work as well as studying) and others will be classed as inactive (as they are not actively looking for work while studying).

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Figure 32: Youth labour market indicators in GM 16-24 YEAR OLDS

351,100

ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

214,300

ECONOMIC INACTIVITY

136,800

EMPLOYMENT

158,100

16-24 UNEMPLOYMENT

56,200

18-24 UNEMPLOYMENT

47,800

18-24 IN FT EDUCATION

101,600 0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

Source: Annual Population Survey (2012)

6.20

6.21

Looking only at those claiming benefit ( and so excluding students, but also many who are ineligible for benefit and are classed as unemployed according to the ILO measure) there are 25,010 JSA claimants aged 16-24 in GM, making up almost a third (29.5%) of all claimants and 7.1% of the age group, as compared with 6.8% regionally and 5.9% nationally. A third of these (34.7%) are long-term claimants (claiming for longer than six months), a rate of 2.5% compared with 2.3% regionally and 2.1% nationally. Compared with last year there are 1,885 (7.0%) fewer claimants, compared with 7.7% fewer regionally and 8.7% fewer nationally. As

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Table 33 below shows, the highest youth claimant rates in GM were in Rochdale and Oldham, both with 9.6% of young people claiming, and in Tameside also, where there was a rate of 8.9%. Long term claimant rates were also highest in these districts, with 3.6%, 3.3% and 3.2% respectively; in addition Wigan had a long-term youth claimant rate of 3.2%.

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Table 33: Youth and long term youth claimants in GM districts compared CLAIMANTS LT CLAIMANTS QU. CHANGE N % N % N % 2,470 7.9 815 2.6 Bolton 115 4.9% 1,510 7.3 465 2.3 Bury 90 6.3% 5,500 5.2 1,975 1.9 Manchester -10 -0.2% 2,520 9.6 865 3.3 Oldham 150 6.3% 2,365 9.6 890 3.6 Rochdale 30 1.3% 2,370 6.9 835 2.4 Salford -10 -0.4% 1,690 5.7 510 1.7 Stockport 45 2.7% 2,280 8.9 815 3.2 Tameside 90 4.1% 1,365 6.3 430 2.0 Trafford 50 3.8% 2,950 8.6 1,080 3.2 Wigan 90 3.1% 25,010 7.1 8,680 2.5 GM 630 2.6% 59,645 6.8 20,310 2.3 NW 1,415 2.4% 429,455 5.9 149,900 2.1 GB 4,580 1.1%

AN. CHANGE N % -330 -11.8% -30 -1.9% -450 -7.6% -210 -7.7% -360 -13.2% -115 -4.6% -155 -8.4% -80 -3.4% -50 -3.5% -90 -3.0% -1,885 -7.0% -5,000 -7.7% -40,895 -8.7%

Source: Department for Work and Pensions (2012)

6.22

Turning to a wider definition of worklessness (including both those unemployed and economically inactive), in February 2012 there were 47,990 out of work benefits claimants in GM under the age of 25, 17.3% of the total workless population and 13.6% of all 16-24 year olds, compared with 13.4% regionally and 11.6% nationally. Categorised by the primary benefit which they claim, this figure includes:



26,903 on Jobseekers Allowance (JSA);



8,630 on Employment and Support Allowance (ESA) or Incapacity Benefit (IB);



10,380 Lone Parents on Income Support (LPIS); and



2,040 on other out of work benefits.

6.23

Figure 33 below summarises how the workless claimants in GM have changed since 2007, most obvious is changing number of JSA claimants, but note also the fall in IB/ESA claimants. Since February however, the youth JSA claimant count has fallen by 2,830 to 25,010 and with the Work Capability Assessment processing IB/ESA claimants, and the eligibility for Lone Parents to claim Income Support being restricted to parents of children aged 5 and younger, the total youth workless figures are likely to have fallen since – although many will have shifted from inactive benefits such as IB/ESA or LPIS onto JSA, and are likely to struggle to find work having been out of the labour market for extended periods of time.

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Figure 33: Youth claimants of out of work benefits in GM 60

THOUSANDS

50 40 24

2 10

2 11

2 10

10 0

JSA

OTHER OWB

LPIS

ESA/IB

Source: Department for Work and Pensions (2012)

6.24

In GM, the highest rates of youth worklessness are in Rochdale (18.3%), Oldham (17.1%) and Tameside (16.4%), with lower rates in Manchester (10.3%)31 Trafford (11.2%) and Stockport (11.6%).

Table 34: Claimants of all out-of-work benefits in GM districts, NW, GB CLAIMANTS QU. CHANGE N %* N % 4,870 15.6% Bolton 70 1.5% 2,850 13.8% Bury 130 4.8% 10,870 10.3% Manchester 110 1.0% 4,470 17.1% Oldham 260 6.2% 4,510 18.3% Rochdale 30 0.7% 4,850 14.2% Salford 180 3.9% 3,440 11.6% Stockport 20 0.6% 4,220 16.4% Tameside -10 -0.2% 2,430 11.2% Trafford 100 4.3% 5,480 16.0% Wigan 260 5.0% 47,990 13.6% GM 1,150 2.5% 116,740 13.4% NW 3,890 3.4% 844,360 11.6% GB 30,460 3.7%

AN. CHANGE N % 340 7.5% 290 11.3% 880 8.8% 560 14.3% 360 8.7% 510 11.8% 260 8.2% 320 8.2% 160 7.0% 370 7.2% 4,050 9.2% 9,540 8.9% 56,260 7.1%

Source: Department for Work and Pensions (2012)

Influenced significantly by the high number of students

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7 CONCLUSIONS 7.1

The main aim of this report is to provide a comprehensive strategic assessment of 1619 provision and needs to support the development of education and training priorities for GM. These will be used for GM’s 10 local authorities and the Combined Authority to discharge their statutory duties.

7.2

Based on the analysis in this document, the following key messages and priorities can be drawn.

Ensuring a smooth progression from compulsory education 

10.7% of GM residents do not sustain an education destination, higher than the national average (9.0%).



Despite the 12 pp increase in number of young people leaving compulsory education with a Level 2 qualification, there has not been consummate fall in Level 2 provision post-16, which only fell by only 1 pp.

Increasing participation, including preparing for RPA and delivering new duties relating to those with SEN (up to age 25) 

Young people classified as NEET has not risen significantly during the recession, although it rises with age from 5.2% at 16 to 7.8% at 17 and 8.6% at 18.



While the number “not known” has remained low at 16 and 17 there is a dramatic increase at age 18 (where 11.2% of young people’s activity status is unknown).



There is a significant drop off in the number “in learning” between aged 16 and 17, with a particular dramatic drop in the number studying in sixth form colleges (from 29.4% at 16 to 21.9% at 17).



Significant new duties have been placed on local authorities and other partners to ensure that those with SEN or a disability have access to appropriate provision, this extends to the age of 25 in many cases.

Narrowing gaps in achievement and progression 

Significant disparities exist between the performance of deprived and non-deprived learners with, for example, those claiming free school meals at 16 almost 20pp less likely to get a Level 2 by 19 that those not eligible. This rises to 26pp at Level 3 by 19.



Young people from deprived areas are less likely to progress into higher education and have a significantly higher chance of becoming workless.



Those with learning difficulty or disability and teenage mothers stand a significantly greater chance of being NEET.

Ensuring that supply and demand meets future labour market requirements 

Research suggests that there is a growing requirement for Level 3 and above qualifications from employers across all sectors.

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

The evidence suggests that there are five key growth sectors for Greater Manchester that will drive economic growth and create new job opportunities: o

Financial and professional services;

Creative and digital;

Life sciences, including health and social care;

Advanced manufacturing; and

Education

Information, advice and guidance are essential in ensuring that young people are made aware of the future needs of the labour market and the pathways available to them.

Supporting the increased take up of apprenticeships 

Despite increases in recent years, provisional figures suggest that the number of apprenticeship starts is on a downward trajectory.



Take up of Level 3 apprenticeships remains low at 22.5% of all apprenticeship starts compared to the regional (24.6%) and national (25.9) averages.

Ensuring an effective transition to employment and further study 

Employers report that many of Greater Manchester’s young people essential skills required for work. A lack of working world and life experience was the skill found lacking most often, ranking considerably higher than the right qualifications or even literacy and numeracy. The importance of high quality work experience has been identified as a major factor in improving the employability of young people.



Youth unemployment and inactivity is significantly higher in Greater Manchester than elsewhere in the country. Unemployment has been rising since before the recession highlighting the significant structural youth unemployment issue that GM has.

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