MoneyMarketing April 2018

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30 April 2018 | www.moneymarketing.co.za

First for the professional personal financial adviser

WHAT’S INSIDE

YOUR APRIL ISSUE

ASSET VALUATIONS SIGNAL ‘MIDDLE OF THE ROAD’ RETURNS AHEAD

UMBRELLA FUND SUPERVISION NEEDS IMPROVEMENT

Fundamentals remain positive for global growth and corporate earnings

The expenses of the fund should be paid by the fund, and not by the administrator Page 16

Page 13

HOW TO ACHIEVE A SUSTAINABLE RETIREMENT INCOME Retirement portfolios should have at least 50% in growth assets Page 26

SA economy – What’s the worst case scenario?

I

n their report released last month, President Cyril Ramaphosa achieving entitled Investment decisions: Why the goals set out in his New Deal South Africa, and why now – PwC Plan (the plan he used in his winning economists examined various forward- campaign for ANC party president in looking scenarios for the Ramaphosa 2017) as well as GDP growth in excess presidency over a five-year horizon of 4% by 2022. The country’s ratings towards 2022. improve significantly, In the worst returning to investment PWC SEES A 75% grade, while the ANC is case scenario, entitled Mouldy rewarded with a notable PROBABILITY Mess, PwC increase in support in the OF IMPROVED economists see 2019 elections. There’s a ECONOMIC the Ramaphosa strong rise in FDI (forward presidency as direct investment) and GROWTH achieving only increased competitiveness in limited reforms which keep economic manufactured exports supports the rand growth stuck below 1%. This scenario to an average of R13.30 to the US dollar also predicts another two rounds of in 2022. rating downgrades as well as the ANC At the time of the writing of this losing its outright majority in the 2019 report, following the February State national elections, retaining power only of the Nation Address (SONA) through a fragile coalition. Economic by President Ramaphosa, PwC competitiveness declines, causing the economists viewed the most likely rand to soften to an average of R18.20 scenario as #Ramaprogress. The to the US dollar in 2022. president is able to make reforms In the best case scenario, entitled that push economic growth to 2% in Prosperity, PwC economists see 2020 and 3% by 2022. Fiscal dynamics

improve and there are no further downgrades by major rating agencies. The ANC improves performance at the ballot box in 2019 and ends declining support. Export growth and investment inflows support the rand that averages R15.60 to the US dollar in 2022. As the table on page 2 shows, PwC sees a 25% probability of the next five years delivering economic growth of less than 1.5%. This indicates a one-in-four chance that the election of President Ramaphosa will have no significant impact on the local economy. Conversely, PwC sees a 75% probability of improved economic growth (above the population growth rate) over the next five years. In his SONA speech, President Ramaphosa said land expropriation without compensation must be done in a way that increases food security and agricultural production. Just over a week after the speech, parliament debated an EFF motion that section 25 of the Constitution

be amended to accommodate the expropriation of land without compensation. There were a few changes to the motion by the ANC that the EFF accepted and the motion was passed by a huge majority. It will now be discussed by Parliament’s Constitutional Review Committee and returned to Parliament by the end of August. This move has caught the attention of investors, with some fearing land grabs, and others concerned about how this would impact South Africa’s economy. Continued on page 2

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3/16/18 11:25 AM


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