31 March 2019 | www.moneymarketing.co.za
@MMMagza
First for the professional personal financial adviser
WHAT’S INSIDE
YOUR MARCH ISSUE
MoneyMarketing's guide to investing offshore in volatile times
page {I}
DIY NOT ALWAYS SIMPLE FOR COMPLIANCE
THREE THINGS EVERY EARLY EARNER NEEDS TO KNOW
Making use of an external compliance practice could address the compliance responsibilities businesses face.
Protecting your young clients’ ability to earn an income should be the foundation of any financial plan.
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What Budget 2019 means for investors
T
he 2019 National Budget will forever be remembered as ‘the Eskom Budget’ – and with good reason. It contained the largest bailout in South Africa’s history as it announced a government injection into troubled stateowned Eskom of R69bn over three years. The National Treasury now expects widening deficits, resulting from the support to Eskom being greater than under-spending elsewhere. The main fiscal deficit is seen as widening to 4.7% of GDP in FY19/20, before narrowing to 4.3% in FY21/22. The spending ceiling will be breached and the debt-to-GDP ratio has been elevated slightly to 58.9% (58.5% previously) and is expected to peak at 60.2% in 2023/24. Government also experienced a pronounced deterioration in contingent liabilities. The amount of cash injections to Eskom “was broadly in line with our initial thoughts for 2019, although the increase in the expenditure ceiling by R16bn to meet needs over the next three years came as a surprise,” say
the deficit and a worsening of the debt burden, we believe SA is likely to face a ratings downgrade in the medium term.”
Bank of America Merrill Lynch economists, Rukayat Yusuf, Gabriele Foa and Ferhan Salman. Ratings agencies The question on the lips of many analysts and investors is: How will the ratings agencies view Budget 2019? In the press conference on the day of the Budget Speech, the Minister of Finance, Tito Mboweni, remarked to reporters: “Treasury has been having difficult conversations with the ratings agencies and we’ll be going on a roadshow next week.” Stanlib Chief Economist, Kevin Lings, expects that the budget may buy South Africa some time with these agencies, “in particular Moody’s Investors Service, which is the only ratings agency to maintain the country on an investment grade, with a stable outlook. It is likely that Moody’s will downgrade the outlook to negative in March and will make another assessment later of how the government is fulfilling its promises. If there is no growth, an increase in
Budget 2019 from an investing perspective “Widening deficits are normally seen as being more equity than bond friendly, but this budget is neither,” says Chantal Marx, Head of Research at FNB Securities. “Spending is being cut back so the economic environment will remain challenged from a risk asset perspective, while borrowing requirements have gone up, keeping bond supply under pressure.” Marx lists some of Budget 2019’s more specific impacts on South African equities: • While there were no changes to income tax brackets, there were also no adjustments made for bracket creep. This, together with higher ‘sin taxes’ and fuel levies, will have a negative impact on the consumer – offsetting this somewhat will be a longer list of zero-rated VAT items (but this was already known prior to the speech). Medical aid tax credits have not been increased. Grant payments were increased by approximately 5%.
from 1 January 2013 to 31 January 2019 18 %
CAGR
12 % 10 %
Laurium Market Neutral Prescient (RI) Hedge Fund (MN)
4%
Fund
Laurium Long Short Prescient (RI) Hedge Fund (LS)
8% 6%
1 Year Annualised
Laurium Aggressive Long Short Prescient (QI) Hedge Fund (ALS)
14 %
2% 0% 0%
Launch
High %
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Finance Minister, Tito Mboweni
Don’t let the equity markets get you down! •
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MN
01/01/09
22.8%
-1.9%
LS
01/08/08
34.5%
-5.5%
ALS
01/01/13
55.1%
-8.8%
We know Hedge Funds
12%
Volatility
T +27 11 263 7700
Continued on page 3
Low %
Alsi TR (Equity) ALBI TR (Bonds)
STeFI (Cash)
Pressure could translate into top-line pressure for consumer stocks. • Specific to ‘sin taxes’, excise tax on beer/cider, wine and spirits is to rise by 7.4%, ahead of CPI. This will be negative for the likes of Distell. • Sugar tax was adjusted for inflation. This will have a marginally negative impact on food and beverage producers. • Moving forward with proposals from the 2012 budget, government intends to publish draft legislation this year on a proposed 1% gambling levy to fund rehabilitation and awarenessraising programmes. This could have a medium-term impact on the likes of Tsogo Sun and Sun International.
It’s Time to Consider Hedge Funds
Risk Return Scatterplot 16 %
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E laurium@lauriumcapital.com
Source: Morningstar, Laurium Capital (31/01/2019)
W www.lauriumcapital.com
Annualised performance shows longer term performance rescaled to a 1 year period. Annualised performance is the average return per year over the period. Actual annual figures are available to the investor on request.Collective Investment Schemes (CIS) should be considered as medium to long-term investments. The value of your investment may go up as well as down as past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. CIS’s are traded at a ruling price and can engage in script lending and borrowing. Performance has been calculated on the C1 class using net NAV to NAV numbers with income reinvested. The performance for each period shown reflects the return for investors who have been fully invested for that period. Individual investor performance may differ as a result of initial fees, the actual investment date, the date of reinvestments and dividend withholding tax. A schedule of fees, charges, and maximum commissions is available on request from the Manager. There is no guarantee in respect of capital or returns in a portfolio. A CIS may be closed to new investors in order for it to be managed more efficiently in accordance with its mandate. Prescient Management Company (RF) (Pty) Ltd is registered and approved under the Collective Investment Schemes Control Act (No.45 of 2002). Laurium Capital (Pty) Limited, Registration number: 2007/026029/07 is an authorised Financial Services Provider (FSP34142) under the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act (No.37 of 2002). For any additional information such as fund prices, brochures and application forms please go to www.lauriumcapital.com