PERSPECTIVE: UPSC AND ARMED FORCES
geopolitics VOL II, ISSUE VIII, JANUARY 2012
n
`100
DEFENCE nDIPLOMACY nSECURITY
SPECIAL
n ALL
Guarding the Line of Control
WELL AT STILWELL?
CRUISING
n THE
NUCLEAR BUSINESS n ITBP’S NEW
The Indian Army is the only land force in the world to have a precision attack supersonic cruise missile in the BrahMos. n SELF -
CONTAINED SOLDIER n IRAN
TROUBLED AND TROUBLING
CHALLENGES
DEFENSE AND SECURITY
TECHNOLOGY TO MAKE THE WORLD MORE SECURE Homeland Security
Radar
C4i
ATM
Space Simulation and Training IFF/BTID
Electro-optics
EW Automatic Test Systems
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COVER STORY (P46)
THE GAME CHANGER
BRAHMOS
One of the fastest cruise missiles in the world, the BrahMos has enormous implications as it gives India the shock-and-awe capability. It is highly mobile and better concealed; therefore, more survivable than the ballistic missiles.
SPOTLIGHT (P18)
PRO NAVY
VIRENDRA SINGH
PANORAMA (P10)
NETWORKED FORCE
NEED FOR A LINCHPIN
With over 50,000 men and 500 tanks participating, the recentlyconcluded Sudarshan Shakti exercise was the largest of its kind in recent memory.
There is a strong case for the need of a Joint Secretary (Maritime) to be a bridge in the South Block for coordination and interaction between the Navy and MoD.
PERSPECTIVE (P12)
DEF BIZ (P36)
INTERNAL SECURITY (P56)
QUALITATIVE CHANGE?
BULLISH ON INDIA
SENTINELS OF THE EAST
We examine how the Union Public Service Commission can ensure not just quality selection but follow-up on its selection norms taking calibrated feedback on its selected candidates.
An interview with Roger Rose, Chief Executive, Lockheed Martin (India), to find out the future plans of one of the largest weapons manufacturers in India.
ITBP DG Ranjit Sinha speaks about how the force has moved from mere border-guarding duties to expanding its repertoire and taking on internal security roles.
www.geopolitics.in
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January 2012
PIB
PRESIDENT.IR
CRPF
TRANSFORMING THE INFANTRY (P40)
DECAPITATION STRIKE (P60)
ENGAGING IRAN (P70)
AFFIRMING THE PARTNERSHIP (P76)
The Defence Research Development Organisation is working on its F-INSAS programme that will transform the Indian armed forces and improve their effectiveness.
The security forces have clearly gained the upper hand in the anti-Naxal operations now that the Maoists face a leadership crisis.
Despite civilisational ties between the two, the recent relations between New Delhi and Teheran have been marked by more downs than ups.
The Indo-Russian summit at Moscow was yet another milestone to strengthen the special and privileged strategic partnership between the two countries.
SPECIAL REPORT (P24) FROM THE FRONTLINES
HEMANT RAWAT
We bring you a firsthand account of the life of soldiers in the Forward Operating Posts along the Line of Control with Pakistan.
DIPLOMACY (66)
BRIDGE TO EAST ASIA
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Conceptualised and designed by Newsline Publications Pvt. Ltd., from D-11 Basement, Nizamuddin (East), New Delhi -110 013, Tel: +91-11-41033381-82 for NEWSEYE MEDIA PVT. LTD. All information in GEOPOLITICS is derived from sources we consider reliable. It is passed on to our readers without any responsibility on our part. Opinions/views expressed by third parties in abstract or in interviews are not necessarily shared by us. Material appearing in the magazine cannot be reproduced in whole or in part(s) without prior permission. The publisher assumes no responsibility for material lost or damaged in transit. The publisher reserves the right to refuse, withdraw or otherwise deal with all advertisements without explanation. All advertisements must comply with the Indian Advertisements Code. The publisher will not be liable for any loss caused by any delay in publication, error or failure of advertisement to appear. Owned and published by K Srinivasan, 4C Pocket-IV, Mayur Vihar, Phase-I, Delhi-91 and printed by him at Nutech Photolithographers, B-240, Okhla Industrial Area, Phase-I, New Delhi-110020. Readers are welcome to send their feedback at geopolitics@newsline.in. www.geopolitics.in
THE REOPENING OF THE STILWELL ROAD COULD CUT THE COST OF TRANSPORTING GOODS BETWEEN INDIA AND CHINA BY 30 PER CENT AND BOOST TRADE WITH THE ASEAN COUNTRIES.
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PERSPECTIVE: UPSC AND ARMED FORCES
geopolitics VOL II, ISSUE VIII, JANUARY 2012 `100
DEFENCE DIPLOMACY SECURITY
SPECIAL
ALL
Guarding the Line of Control
WELL AT STILWELL?
CRUISING
THE
NUCLEAR BUSINESS ITBP’S NEW
The Indian Army is the only land force in the world to have a precision attack supersonic cruise missile in the BrahMos. SELF -
CONTAINED SOLDIER IRAN
TROUBLED AND TROUBLING
CHALLENGES
Cover Design: Ruchi Sinha Photos: BrahMos
January 2012
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GEOPOLITICS
LETTERS
LETTERS TO EDITOR
G
eopolitics is doing a good job and I feel that it has filled a void in the Indian defence publication scenario. There was a need for an overall strategic magazine where the Indian perspective on the geopolitical happening was well reflected and Geopolitics does the job admirably. In the recent issue, numerous issues related with developments that have taken place in East Asia were published. India is being accepted by our East Asian neighbours as a reliable power. Our historical relations have lot to do with this. Your series of stories covered all the political development but I feel the historical perspective should have been given some space. One must not forget that cultural relations create the ground on which politically-stable relationships are built. The story on the AFSPA, (When the armed forces police, December 2011) by Ajay Mehra, was a balanced piece. The article dealt significantly with the historical perspective and the ground realities of the circumstances in which the AFSPA was imposed. It's a special law for a special purpose. It is important that we need to put everything in black and white and if I am not wrong the article has been widely discussed within the strategic community. I happenned to see a chain mail discussion on the article. Keep up the good work. Shivpal Sharma Ranchi
www.geopolitics.in
T
he Cover Story (Securing the north, December 2011) on the Rohtang Tunnel being constructed by the Border Roads Organisation was well covered. The hardship and technological obstacles that are being faced in the construction are challenging yet for a country of India's size and capacity, it is indeed surprising that the technological barriers have not been overcome. I wish you could have focused more on the geographical challenges that we are facing vis-a-vis China. The rapid expansion of infrastructure by China in Tibet that leads to this project wasn't covered. The boxes in the cover story do cover other aspects like the BRO in the NorthEast yet more on the other projects would have helped readers know the scale of the work being done by the organisation. Panorama is one of the most interesting pages that Geopolitics does. Last month's panorama (Nuclear Trouble, December 2011) on the Iran nuclear problem was well depicted through illustrations. The quote of the important players in the nuclear game that is unfolding in the Middle East was the shortest way to know who stands where. The future Infantry combat vehicle programme (The mount of the
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warriors, December 2011) is going to be a milestone and like me many more would have read the detailed and informative piece for the first time. Looking forward to future issues for many more interesting reads. Sudarshan Bhanot Chandigarh
Y
our magazine has been reporting on artillery modernisation. Incidentally, it is the only branch of the Indian forces which hasn't seen any modernisation in the last two decades. The saga of artillery modernisation has come full circle with the authorities going back to where it all ended. I am sure the magazine will continue to track the new plans of production of guns at the Ordnance Factory Board. That the future infantry combat vehicle (The mount of the warrior, December 2011) is going to be a huge benefit for Indian industry was an eye opener. It would be better if the articles emphasise on the technical aspects of the weapons systems, especially those under development. Technological strength lies with these technology firms. Manoj Saxena Delhi All correspondence may be addressed to: Editor, Geopolitics, D-11 Basement, Nizamuddin (East), New Delhi-110013. OR mail to geopolitics@newsline.in.
January 2012
{GOLDENEYE}
g Splendid century In a dog-eat-dog world we would like to think we are different. Therefore, Golden Eye doffs its hat to the indefatigable team of Praveen Sawhney and Ghazala Wahab for scoring a century. Three figure stands — be it on the cricket field or in the publishing business — need to applauded. While we wait for Sachin to collect that elusive ton, our many congratulations to Force for reaching there first. More so because the sprightly publication that Praveen edits is the product by and for professionals and packing an inventive new product month after month is no mean feat. Here is wishing them a great year ahead and a productive and fruitful double hundred and more.
T 90 is Supreme Commander’s rath
T
he biggest military exercise of the year ‘Sudarshan Sakti’ saw the T-90 Indian Army main battle tank being used as the rath for the supreme commander of Indian Armed Forces. She donned the uniform of a tank officer — the black uniform — and sat on top of the all-terrain tank. What else would have suited the Supreme Commander? She is continuing the tradition started by previous President APJ Abdul Kalam, who flew Su-30 and also drove the T-90. But it is worth remembering that President Kalam’s experience in T-90 tanks led to the installation of air conditioners in them. But Pratibha Tai decided that she wouldn’t get into it, but sit on top of it like a true commander-in-chief! It is interesting to see the ever silent and indifferent to the hullabaloos of New Delhi, the honourable Raksha Mantri AK Antony not drawing any inspiration from the President. He couldn’t escape sitting on top of a tank when the Supreme Commander took a ride. But it will be interesting to see him doing something extraordinary on his own. We are all aware he doesn’t get excited or impressed easily by anyone. The only person who could inspire him to do something out of the way would be Sonia Gandhi. He can’t resist following in her footsteps. Let’s pray for the day when Soniaji does something that may inspire Antony to get in a Su-30 or a tank or fire Bofors!
www.geopolitics.in
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{GOLDENEYE}
Mantriji doesn’t hear Nerpa It all happened at the extremely well-attended Navy Day in the capital. Mantriji AK Antony was in attendance and journalists caught hold of the Raksha Mantri who seemed to be in a chatty mood. All was going well and he was responding to questions in an informal friendly manner when in came a question regarding the Nerpa, the Russian nuclear submarine on lease to India. When it is arriving, was the question. Antony, poor soul, thought the missive was on Nepal! All is going well with Nepal, he blurted, before a torrent of voices corrected him: “Not Nepal, but Nerpa sir!” The good man smiled and gave the standard MoD line: “It’s coming,” he said. That was about it. When the gup-shup veered to the Army Chief’s age, the conversation came to an abrupt end. Antony literally cupped his ears: Kya pucha aapne?
Getting it right
Band,baja aur beret
So the mischief-mongers have got into action. And if anyone has to blame, it has to be the decision-making process. Why on earth do they make the process of selecting and approving CEOs for the public sector units so excruciating and painful? Now, take for example, the selection of the next CEO of HAL (Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd). It took less than half a day on October 13, 2011 for the PESB (Public Enterprises Selection Board) to clear the name of R K Tyagi (presently the Chairman and Managing Director of Pawan Hans) as its choice for HAL. A choice that was made with the full support and backing of the Defence Secretary who was on the selection committee. Not just that. Tyagi underwent a bruising several months-long process to head ONGC (Oil and Natural Gas Corporation) was cleared by the CBI, IB and every conceivable agency just months back for the top job there. So, why go through the process again? The fact of the matter is that HAL requires a breath of fresh air. No insider (the last one has brought HAL almost to the status of Air India) will fit the bill. Moreover, there was no insider from HAL eligible for the interview held for the post of Chairman. All the Directors have about one year to retire and hence were not even qualified for the interview. Tyagi is an Engineering Graduate of IIT, Roorkee, and is also an MBA. He is also an alumni of the Indian School of Business (ISB), Hyderabad where he was especially trained during 2004-05 for 15 months to provide the top leadership in Indian PSU. He has been dealing with HAL as a customer, service provider and a collaborator for the last so many years. With experience of 35 years in PSU working and heading different positions, Tyagi looks like the perfect man for the job. But there are some who would have us think differently. Kya baat hai, bhai!
www.geopolitics.in
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Now whoever decided that the bands from the services and the para-military ought to have a festival in the capital deserves a round of drinks to warm the soul in this cold season. What a delight to see and hear them perform. Barring the Republic Day and Beating the Retreat, bands, at least for people at large, are disciplined row of soldiers attuned to music who play at ceremonies and special occasions. True. But the fact is they are seasoned, exceptional in their talent, love music and are martial to boot. Now where do you get such a heady combination? Thank you for playing in Dilli. You warmed our hearts.
January 2012
g UDARSHAN
OPERATION
SHAKTI
GEOPOLITICS
PANORAMA
he Indian Army conducted a massive military exercise in Rajasthan involving troops, tanks, artillery guns and fighter aircraft. Called Exercise Sudarshan Shakti, it was conducted jointly by the Southern Command— headquartered in Pune — and the South Western Air Command (SWAC) based in Ahmedabad. The exercises were carried out in the Barmer-Jaisalmer sector. The exercise was led by the 21 Corps.
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POWER PROJECTION È Over 50,000 troops È Tanks 500 — T-90 Bhishma , T-72 Ajeya, MBT Arjun Mk I, È ICV Sarath (BMP-II), È Artillery — Bofors FH-77 155 mm howitzers, OFB 130mm guns, È Multiple Barrel Rocket Launching Systems (MBRLS) — DRDOdeveloped Pinaka 225 mm and Russian-made Smerch 300 mm È Nuclear-Biological-Chemical warfare (NBC) recce vehicles
www.geopolitics.in
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January 2012
g COMMANDER-IN-CHIEF
PANORAMA
Information Warfare È Surveillance System — Satellite,
È
+UAVs+ AWACS + Ground radars (medium range and short range)+ weapons-locating radars + sensors of air defence artillery UAVs — from both Army and Air Force — Searcher and Heron
MOD
Rotary Muscle È Dhruv, Cheetah, Mi-17 and Chetak
È For the first time ever the first lady President of the Republic of India Pratibha Patil was on hand to get a first-hand glimpse of the exercises.
È Mi-35 Attack choppers
Combined Arms Tactics È Objective — To validate the concept
È
BAND OF BROTHERS
Network-Centric Warfare È Exercise was based on the
MOD
È
www.geopolitics.in
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È È
Integrated Theatre Concept where various wings of the armed forces have to come together in a single cohesive format during war. Network-Centric Warfare (NCW) involving real-time data-sharing with various battle units and defence wings was the core mantra of the exercise. Real-time data transmission from from UAVs, radars and intelligence to the tropps on the ground and in the air was the essence of this operation. Forces moved from Bhopal, Jhansi Sikandarabad and Sagar. Forces assembled at triangle of Barmer, Jaisalmer and Jodhpur in area of 140x70 km. January 2012
VIRENDRA SINGH
È From left to right: General officer Commanding South Western Command Lt General Gyan Bhushan, Southern Army Commander Lt General AK Singh, Chief of Army Staff VK Singh, General Officer Commanding Sudarshan Chakra corps Lt General Sanjiv Langer and AOC-in-C Western Air Command Air Marshal Kumaria
of tailor-made integrated logistic system to sustain any offensive for a period of time. The southern Army command and southern air command practised the “seamless air-land battle’ focusing on interservice operatibility to transform Indian Army for theatrebased operations. The exercise was conducted under nuclear, biological and chemical (NBC) and net-centric warfare environment. The exercise also validated the integration of all surveillance assets like, UAVs, satellites, and radars to assist commanders in taking dynamic and proactive operational action in a fluid battlefield.
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GEOPOLITICS
PRO ARMY
PERSPECTIVE
HEMANT RAWAT
EPIC MANDATE: The UPSC is the sole agency responsible for selecting the civil services, and also for testing all Armed Forces officer candidates
UNLEASHING THE UPSC
The Union Public Service Commission (UPSC) is the government’s apex Human Resources (HR) clearing house. Every year, UPSC examines/interviews a staggering 15 lakh-plus (over 1.5 million) candidates who wish to serve the country in diverse professions, ranging from a plethora of civil services to the armed forces. The UPSC is involved in a work of staggering complexity and is the world’s biggest government agency involved with HR selection in a democracy. RAJ MEHTA examines how the Commission is executing its charter in these challenging times and explores how the UPSC can ensure not just quality HR selection but, equally importantly, follow up on its selection norms by oversight and by taking calibrated feedback on its selected candidates end delivery www.geopolitics.in
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January 2012
g PERSPECTIVE
“The teacher, if he is indeed wise, does not bid you to enter the house of wisdom, but leads you to the threshold of your own mind.” Kahlil Gilbran, poet and painter “The principal goal of education is to create men who are capable of doing new things, not simply of repeating what other generations have done.” George Bernard Shaw (1856-1950) British dramatist, critic, writer
S
ARDAR VALLABHBHAI Patel, India’s first Deputy Prime Minister and Home Minister, is remembered as the founder “Patron Saint” of India’s civil servants. In an unprecedented and unrepeated gesture, 1500 officers of India’s www.geopolitics.in
civil and police services mourned the demise of the “Iron Man” on December 15, 1950, in Delhi and pledged “complete loyalty and unremitting zeal” in India’s service. Sadly, that has not happened. If anything, the civil services officers, who should have been proud successors to the Indian Civil Service (ICS); once considered the most powerful officials in the British Empire — if not the world — are sad caricatures of “the steel frame on which the whole structure of government and of administration in India rests”, which British Prime Minister David Lloyd George thought they were in 1935. Jawaharlal Nehru wrote disparagingly the same year that the ICS was “neither Indian, nor civil, nor a service”… Cynical observers would probably agree with Nehru that the civil services today richly deserve that scathing criticism. The Indian armed forces have not remained untouched either. With a crippling shortage of 15,273 officers and with over 5,000 officers training at any given time, the quality of intake over the years on a number of counts has been as worrisome as the declining popularity of the armed forces. On yet another front, the prevailing, dismal ethical climate in governance is starting to make inroads into the Service ranks. The recent, unprecedented surge in cases related to conduct unbecoming and gross violation of good order and military discipline is a worrisome development. So, what are the options that confront the UPSC — the sole agency responsible for selecting the civil services, as also for testing all armed forces officer candidates (though not interviewing them)? That something is seriously amiss is the brutal truth which can no longer be kept under wraps. That change is needed is equally clear. What is potentially heart-warming is the fact that ‘Barkis (the UPSC) has been willin’ since 2009… to bring in reform.
THE DISMAL ETHICAL CLIMATE IN GOVERNANCE IS STARTING TO MAKE INROADS INTO SERVICE RANKS
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The UPSC Charter The function of the UPSC is to conduct examinations/interviews for appointment to the services of the Union of India. Under the recruitment through examination method the UPSC conducts 14 examinations; 10 for recruitment to Civil Services/Posts and four for Defence Services. The Sixtieth Annual UPSC Report 2009-10 (the latest accessible on the web) states that a total of 15,00,787 applications (8,96,804 Civil and 6,03,983 Defence) were received and processed; 7,541 candidates interviewed for Civil Services/Posts (interviews for Defence Services are conducted by the MoD) and 3,697 candidates recommended for appointment to various posts — 2,421 for Civil Services/Posts and 1,276 for Defence Services/Posts. We get a sense of perspective when we realise that the 1951- 52 applications for joining the civil and defence services were only 24,680 — a staggering enhancement of work-load by 61 times. The graduate entry military written examinations (for the Indian Military, Air Force and Naval Academies) comprise three papers: English, General Knowledge, and Matric-level Mathematics. The papers for the Officers Training Academies exclude Mathematics. The undergraduate (10 plus 2) entry-level examination for joining the National Defence Academy and Naval Academy has two objective papers: Mathematics and General Ability Test. On passing, candidates are tested and interviewed for Intelligence/Personality through the MoD-run Services Selection Board (SSB) system. It holds a two-stage test. Only candidates clearing Stage I enter Stage 2 testing. Reality Check The public perception of the UPSC varies widely. It varies from cheerful validation of what it does to being a gargantuan, bureaucratic, typically government-run enterprise (it is actually autonomous). Let’s do a reality check to ascertain the truth. The UPSC’s Sixtieth Annual Report puts across some interesting details that make the reader sit up. Let’s start with the Civil Services (Main) Examination, 2008. Of 3,25,433 candidates, who had applied for the Civil Services (Preliminary) Examination, 2008, only 3,06,633 were found eligible. However, only 1,67,035 or 51.3 per cent candidates actually appeared in this examination held on May 18, 2008. On the basis of results of this examination, only January 2012
g 11,849 (7.1 per cent) candidates were declared qualified for taking the Main Examination. In other words, 48.7 per cent of the candidates, who applied did not turn up for the examination. No details of defence services candidates are available. The report brings out that the average time taken in completion of the recruitment process is nine months. The delay by Ministries/Departments in offering employment to candidates selected by direct recruitment varied from one year for 70 candidates to over a year in 69 cases. The delay by Ministries/Departments in notification of recruitment rules approved by UPSC varied from one to five years. Delay in offers of employment for 292 candidates selected by UPSC on the basis of written examinations exceeded one year. Nothing by way of reform measures exist in the report for the other mandates of the UPSC, including the four defence forces examinations that it conducts. The feeling one gets is that the issue has simply not invited the attention of the UPSC, or, if it has, then it has been accorded very low priority indeed. The November 2011 issue of Geopolitics in an article titled “Grim Portents” by this author had highlighted the crying need for reform in the selection and training processes for armed forces candidates. The UPSC has been inexplicably silent on its responsibilities towards selecting better candidates for the forces. Military Selection Conundrum It is to be noted that though the military selection process begins with the UPSC, the issue of choosing the right candidate is currently hinged on the SSB interview; certainly not the examination regime, which, as for the civil services till 2010, focuses on memory more than it does on morality, ethics, mental fitness and integrity: all qualities that are the basic DNA of a 21st century soldier-scholar. The problem actually goes well beyond a crib against dated linear testing of military candidates. For the sake of conveying focused concern, let us take the case of the National Defence Academy (NDA) and its UPSC connectivity. The NDA awards a BA/BSc/BCS degree to its 2000 cadets (the intake will increase to 2500 by 2012). The degree is actually given by Jawaharlal Nehru University ( JNU), a leading university to which the NDA is affiliated. The civilian www.geopolitics.in
PRO ARMY
PERSPECTIVE
ALL BRAWN: The Indian Army needs to change its training programmes which place an undue emphasis on physical attributes
faculty that teaches the cadets at the NDA is selected by the UPSC. The Commission, therefore, is not just involved with cadets but also with faculty selection at the NDA — once the world’s leading Inter Services Academy. Let us examine this issue in some depth. Starting off as an Inter Science setup with the ratio of military to academic subjects set at 2:1, the NDA had its first JNU graduate degree course passout in June 1974. A series of high-powered internal and external committees have examined the academic content as well as faculty issues at the NDA since it was raised and arrived at the conclusion that the ratio of military vis-à-vis academic training should be 30:70. On the ground, the absolute reverse is
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in vogue. 70 per cent of cadet time is spent in physical activities and 30 per cent in intellectual activity. The NDA is probably the only institution which concurrently runs a gruelling physical programme alongside an undergrad academic programme. Whereas that may be justifiably taken as the military/MoD’s — not the UPSC’s — concern in the main, the NDA, for long years has been grossly understaffed in faculty terms, to the extent of 50 per cent. Today, NDA has an authorised faculty strength of 162. It is reliably learnt that the posted strength is just 122. There are 15 military Education Corps posted, five more than authorised and around 30 ad hoc faculty hired on hourly/ monthly basis. Left at the deep end to fend for itself, the NDA covers its January 2012
g PERSPECTIVE JNU — a university that should have had both interest and oversight on the degree that carries its name. JNU itself has 5,500 students and a faculty strength of around 550 while its affiliate, the NDA, has a faculty strength of 122 for 2000/2500 students. Is the JNU really concerned? In 2006, The Times of London rated JNU amongst the top 200 universities of the world — ironically at a time when the NDA had 50 per cent faculty shortage — besides some inductees being of questionable quality. JNU has collaboration arrangements with 71 foreign universities. How has this benefited its affiliated institutions such as the NDA? Not at all.
IS THE UPSC SENDING THE RIGHT FACULTY TO THE NDA? ARE THE CANDIDATES GEARED TO BE TEACHERS?
academic syllabus by holding more classes per day. Not many years ago, the NDA had an ad hoc Principal who remained in that position for long…The UPSC and MoD simply could not select the right person. The next issue that arises is of quality. Is the UPSC sending the right faculty to the NDA? Are the selected candidates really geared up to be teacher/mentors in a world-class fully residential setup that is training cadets to live by the Chetwode Credo: Of their country and the men they will command being above themselves, always and every time? Are they role models in knowledge, deportment, conduct; academics; imbued with the passion of educating a generation of soldier-scholars at par with the best in the world? Dispassionate observers would say that the UPSC has failed to deliver on most counts here, as has the www.geopolitics.in
There was a vintage, halcyon time at the NDA when it had iconic faculty members who are remembered till date for being charismatic role models; for the values they imbued in the cadets and for their 24x7 involvement in nurturing them in concert with their military training. That phase has sadly passed, and surely, the UPSC, JNU and the overarching authority should be held accountable for this decline. Prof Jaspal Singh, an eminent academiciandiplomat, recently presided over the NDA Convocation and had this to say: “The quality of a nation depends upon the quality of its citizens and the quality of citizens depends upon the quality of education and training. Education, in turn, depends upon teachers and mentors, who impart the values of morality and goodness that frame a real human being. It is important to understand what do we do but, more important is to know how we learn,” he said, calling for a shift towards innovating learning methods. “The role of teachers is important not just as a dispenser of knowledge, a counselor and a facilitator but, also as master who can read the psychology of his/her disciples,” he added.
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An International example could be instructive. The rough equivalent of the NDA in Australia is its Australian Defence Force Academy (ADFA). It trains cadet officers of the Australian Defence Force, offering three/four-year primary and postgraduate degrees. ADFA is operated as a campus of the University of New South Wales (UNSW ) and has full academic and support staff employed by the university. Military staff maintains a separate training programme in non-academic time. The UNSW, like the JNU, is a research-focused university recognised as one of Australia’s leading teaching and research institutions. It has 46,000 students taught by over 5,000 full-time faculty. UNSW has nine faculties, the ADFA amongst them (JNU has 10 schools with 16 affiliated institutions, the NDA being one of six military institutions which are so linked). The University was ranked 49th on the 2011 QS World University Rankings and its ADFA degrees are much prized all over Australia and the world. More importantly, the ADFA degrees are run not by ADFA but by UNSW, for which purpose it is budgeted separately and has full autonomy. The Way Out The UPSC should welcome reforms. It must take pride in choosing the very best as NDA faculty and ensure that the terms and conditions of service at the NDA rank amongst the best in India. The JNU needs to be put on a positive notice to “shape up or ship out” warning to take charge of its academic obligations at the NDA on the lines of the UNSW, if not better. Given the multiplicity of agencies involved in invoking correction, a national commission is suggested to be set up under a serving Supreme Court judge that should take a holistic view of the improvements needed in our civil service and military selection and training/education systems. The sooner this call is taken, the better it will be for Shining India. The commission can also look at the issue of constitutionally authorised autonomy of the UPSC along the lines currently vested in the Election Commission and the Comptroller and Auditor General of India’s Office. (The author, a Retired Major-General, was an Army Faculty at the NDA in 19811984. He is a graduate of OTA Madras and was a Teaching Faculty at the Defence Services Staff College in 1993-1996) January 2012
gONLOOKER KHAN ON SALE!
THE SPIRIT OF WUKAN
U S STATE DEPARTMENT
the villager’s arable land to developers. Local officials fled Wukan till the standoff was settled. Is the Wukanese model the new model for China?
Hu Jintao
Vladimir Putin
PIB
THE RINGLEADERS are arrested and the police are deployed in full force. But in the Chinese village of Wukan, locals scored a major achievement in their 11-day stand-off with local government, securing the release of three detained leaders arrested after residents of Wukan accused local officials of embezzling more than $110 million dollars of money owed to them for selling more than 80 per cent of
PIB
DID A Q Khan Libya that benefitted sell his nuclear from Khan’s flourishing wares to India? nuclear proliferation Believe it or not racket. Khan and Co that’s what Joshua have always referred to Pollack, an expert a secret fourth customer on the nonproliferand now Pollack sugation bazar suggests it is India. But in A Q Khan gested in a recent the dog eat dog world of piece. One of the great mysnuclear games two plus two is teries of the Khan Bazar has not always four, it can also be always been the identity of 22! No wonder the Indian the ‘fourth customer’ apart establishment is laug-hing at from Iran, North Korea and the Pollack assertion!
“I neither write such controversial frivolous and absurd memo nor authorised anyone to do so.”
ISPR.GOV.PK
NKNEWS.ORG
HUSSAIN HAQQANI
Former Pakistan ambassador to US,
www.geopolitics.in
reportedly calling him the “Morning Star King”. In his 2003 book, I Was Kim Jongil’s Chef, a Japanese man writing under the pseudonym Kenji Fujimoto also claimed that Jong-un was his father’s favourite. Swiss-educated like his brothers, Kim Jong-un avoided Western influences, returning home when not in school and dining out with the North Korean ambassador.” There are reports that as the young Kim consolidates power with the help of the entrenched establishment, his friend philosopher and guide will be his powerful uncle Jang Song Taek, director of the administrative department of the North Korean Workers Party, who is married to his father’s sister. The uncle is just one of the many relatives around the corridor and gives the impression of a medieval Mughal durbar in modern times.
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IMRAN KHAN
Chairman, Tehreek-e-Insaf.
“If the government was facing pressure from the establishment over the memo and if its purpose was to teach the establishment a lesson, a better option would have been to establish a Truth and Reconciliation Commission, as enshrined in the CoD, to bring dictators before it.”
DEFENSE.GOV
ACCORDING TO Foreign Affairs, “Pity Kim Jong Un. In one day, he lost his father and inherited the worst job in the world.” True. The poor bloke has had little time to prepare for his ascent. When his grandfather Kim Il Sung designated Kim Jong Il as heir, he was understudy for close to 15 years before he took over when the Great Leader died. But Kim Jong Un was proclaimed heir only last year and straightaway made a four star general. From subedar to general saab! No surprise that some 10 million portraits are being printed for distribution. The new ruler’s mugshot will hang alongside those of his father and grandfather. According to the BBC: “Very little is known about the man himself. His mother was thought to be Kim Jongil’s favourite wife, and she clearly doted on her son,
“The memo issue is a sensitive matter and it should be thoroughly investigated.”
PAKISTANILEADERS.COM.PK
THE WORLD’S WORST JOB
NAWAZ SHARIF PML-N Chief, Pakistan
QUIP METER
January 2012
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EXPLETIVES AT THE UN US AMBASSADOR to the UN Susan Rice and Russian Ambassador Vitaly Churkin have slugged out in the cold winter of New York. Quickly the charged debate got personal and vicious. The trigger has been the Russian demand for a UN-backed investigation into allegations that NATO killed civilians during its air campaign against forces loyal to Muammar al-Qaddafi.
HINA RABBANI KHAR Pakistan Foreign Minister
TRIBUNE.COM.PK
ISPR.GOV.PK
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“The memo case was a conspiracy against parliament. Targeting the President means targeting parliament. I summoned Ambassador Husain Haqqani and got his resignation in presence of the President, the army chief and the ISI DG, though the opponents were saying that Mr Haqqani will not return to Pakistan.”
YUSUF RAZA GILANI Pakistan Prime Minister
“There may be a need to fully examine the facts and circumstances leading to conception and issuance of the memo. I strongly dispel the speculation of any military takeover. They (are) misleading and being used as a bogey to divert the focus from the real issues.”
GEN ASHFAQ PARVEZ KAYANI Pakistan Army Chief
“I suggested to him (president) that the issue pertains to the national security and should not be taken lightly. I suggested to the president that it will be in the fitness of things to ask our ambassador in Washington (Husain Haqqani) to verify or contradict the matter.”
AHMED SHUJA PASHA
Pakistan ISI Director General Lt General (Retd)
Susan Rice
Vitaly Churkin
claims, cheap stunt, duplicitous, redundant, superfluous, stunt…you know, you cannot beat a Stanford education, can you?” Standford is Rice’s alma mater. Everyone is waiting for Round Two!
THINK SANE FROM THEIN SEIN If someone had said in January 2011 that the Burmese military junta supremo Thein Sein would win plenty of points before the end of the year, he would have been asked to get his head examined. But the fact of life is that Thein Sein, who was PM during the junta rule and is now the President of the country, has actually won praise for the evenhanded manner in which he finally opened Maynmar to the outside world. Here is a list of what all he has done this year: y Hundreds of political prisoners released. Most prominent of them being Aung San Suu Kyi. y Initiated dialogue with her and other opposition leaders. y A national conference on tribal conflicts that wrack Maynmar. But what has in real terms taken the West by surprise is the assertion that Myanmar is no more a puppet of the Chinese. By announcing the suspension of the $3.5 billionplus Myitsone dam project, Thein Sein has sent this clear unambiguous signal. The consequences have been spectacular, if anything. y Myanmar will host the ASEAN summit in 2014. y In November, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton came calling. y British Foreign Secretary William Hague will be in Rangoon in January.
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y India and China are planning big-ticket visits and business delegations are flocking to the region.
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“American officials never mentioned the existence of the said memo either privately or through official channels. I cannot deny that something as ludicrous as this could raise more questions. It doesn’t take much to be able to raise those questions.”
Rice was quickly off the mark: “I think it’s not an exaggeration to say that this is something of a cheap stunt to obscure the success of NATO and its partners. it is duplicitous, it’s redundant, it’s superfluous and it’s a stunt.” Churkin wouldn’t take it lying down: “This is not an issue that can be drowned out by expletives. You might recall the words one could hear: bombast and bogus
UN.INT
Meanwhile in another world — Bolotnaya in Moscow — was packed with the young and the white-collared (“office plankton,” as they’re known in Russia) got together to voice their frustrations, anger and what they described as ‘fraud’ in the just concluded elections to Russian Parliament. And the brunt of the anger was against Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. As in Wukan, the police was conciliatory and noted the mood of the people. Is it a sense of the season of change?
U S STATE DEPARTMENT
O N L O O K E R
January 2012
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SPOTLIGHT
TIME FOR A CHANGE With worldwide maritime issues and disputes, including piracy, raising their head along with a scramble for resources, there is now an urgent need for a Joint Secretary (Maritime) in South Block to co-ordinate all maritime affairs, argues RANJIT B RAI www.geopolitics.in
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January 2012
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FLEXING STRATEGIC MUSCLE: India will have to safeguard its maritime security with bold moves, if it is to continue to rise
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HE INDIAN Navy celebrates Navy Week around Navy Day on December 4 every year to commemorate its ‘Osa-Class Missile Boats’, nicknamed the Killers, that carried out two historic attacks on Karachi in 1971, which heralded missile warfare from the seas for the www.geopolitics.in
world. Much water has flown since and the Indian Navy has modernised and expanded with longer reach and many more missiles to safeguard the nation’s increasing maritime responsibilities in the Indian Ocean and the Asia Pacific region in concert with the expanding Coast Guard. Yet the Ministry of Defence (MoD) and Ministry of External Affairs bureaucratic set-up has not changed and one Joint Secretary (Navy) is the lynchpin in MoD for the Navy and Coast Guard, who then liaises with the various divisions of Ministry of External Affairs. On July 30, 2011, on her last day in office, the then Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao (at present Ambassador to the United States of America) had this say to a gathering of the Navy Foundation: “As a diplomatic instrument, the Navy has key attributes — access, mobility, reach and versatility. We need to embed these (maritime) attributes within the larger vision of India’s role in the global arena. A flexible but ‘proactive maritime doctrine’ is essential to safeguard and project our national interests overseas. The Navy and our foreign policy establishment need to ‘establish closer coordination’ in this regard.” This seminal statement by someone who had worked in South Block closely with the Navy for over two years should be read alongside Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru’s prophetic words on board INS Delhi in 1949 as he gazed out across the seas on a voyage to Indonesia: “We cannot afford to be weak at sea. History has shown that whoever controls the Indian Ocean has, in the first instance, India’s sea-borne trade at her mercy and, in the second, India’s very independence itself.” More recently, the two-day East Asia Summit at Bali, which concluded on November 19, 2012, witnessed assertive policy statements by US President Barack Obama on Washington’s extended security involvement in the Asia Pacific region and a call for freedom of navigation as embodied in the United Nations Laws of The Seas (UNCLOS 1982), apparently directed at China’s restrictive and threatening postures in the South China Sea. Strangely, the US adheres to the UNCLOS, but has not signed the treaty. President Obama came out strongly to state that the USA would increase its interests and presence in the region with the words, “First we seek security which is the foundation of peace and prosperity” and then “reduction in (USA’s) defense budget will not, I repeat will not, come at the expense
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of the Asia Pacific”. And just before arriving in Bali, he, whilst in Darwin, situated at the northern tip of Australia close to Indonesia, announced that the USA would station 2,500 marines there. On maritime issues, India’s Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh also took a firm stand at Bali and unequivocally stated to the media, and to Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, that India had every right to pursue commercial exploration agreements signed in 2005 between ONGC and Vietnam Petro in the South China Sea. The two adjacent blocks 127 and 128 in question, in the Phu Khanh basin, are 110 miles off the Vietnamese coast located in water depths of 400 metres and occupy a large tract of sea, which incidentally comes within the lines claimed by China and may require adjudication between Vietnam and China. Incidentally, the two have only recently agreed to set up a hotline to avoid maritime incidents. Both parties agreed to act bilaterally on six undisclosed issues and the rest according to the ASEAN code of conduct signed by all ASEAN states with China to maintain peace and stability in the South China region. The South China Sea dispute is over the allure for oil, which is estimated anywhere between 105 and 213 billion barrels of liquid gold deposited in the region, and could exceed 80 per cent of the entire Saudi kingdoms’ reserves, according to Chinese estimates. Incidentally, while addressing the Bali summit without naming any country, the 69-year-old Prime Minister of China, Wen Jiabao, who is a geologist by training, warned outside powers not to take up exploration in disputed areas. This was followed up by the Chinese spokesman’s strong affirmation. The limits of the 200mile EEZ around coasts and inhabited islands are still to be delineated and continental shelves marked, and mired in legal interpretation and wrangling, matters in the South China Sea resemble situations facing India as we are yet to sort out the maritime issues with Pakistan and Bangladesh. China’s interpretation of rights of exploration of living and non-living resources, and scientific missions, which China considers is gathering of intelligence, are controversial. China is taking full advantage of the fluid situation, as nations have filed extended claims up to 350 miles, which will be adjudicated in a future UNCLOS. China has occupied January 2012
g SPOTLIGHT
POLICING THE OCEAN: The Indian Navy has to be on constant guard against pirates in the Indian Ocean region
islands in the South China Sea like Mischief in the Spratlys and some in Parcels in the South China Sea and claims 200 nautical miles’ EEZ and when it overlaps another maritime state looks to bilateral delineation of the boundary. Till then, China wants outside powers to keep clear of the disputed areas and has drawn dotted lines on an unofficial chart depicting its claims. In 2006, a Chinese trawler bumped US survey ship USS Impeccable out of the area. This background begs the question: Is the world seeing the stirring of a Cold War on economic and maritime issues between the largest military power but economically weak USA, and a strong economic power China with a rising military? India desires strategic autonomy and is geographically well-located. But it could become a pawn in the power game as borders are not settled between India and China and the issue of Tibet and support to Dalai Lama irritates China. India will have to safeguard its maritime security, which impacts economy with bold moves, if it is to continue to rise. In July, a Chinese ship allegedly challenged the Indian Navy’s large landing ship tank INS Airavat, on VHF radio, whilst she was making an innocent passage in the international waters of the South China Sea after concluding a diplomatic call in Vietnam. The Navy must have reported www.geopolitics.in
the incident to MoD, which played down the event. Surely, the MEA and India’s intelligence apparatus must have taken note of the incident. Soon thereafter, the Navy detected a Chinese intelligencegathering vessel loitering off the Andaman Islands, where Myanmar has the Cocos Island with reported Chinese interests and which is just 50 nautical miles north of the Andamans. The Navy buzzed the ship and the ship made a passage to Sri Lanka. Surely the Navy, MoD, and intelligence agencies, which monitor China closely, would know details of this vessel taking advantage of the freedom of passage in international waters to snoop. A month before that, on June 17, 2011, PNS Babur, whilst escorting 17,000-tonner MV Suez to Salalah in Oman, which had been released after ten months in captivity in Somalia by pirates who extracted $2 million raised by human rights and civil rights activist Ansar Burney of Pakistan and the Egyptian owners, willfully collided with INS Godavari in open seas. In a CBM (confidence building measure) measure, Indian and Pakistan Navy ships are not to approach each other closer than 3 nm from each other. The released video footage showed PNS Babur deliberately increasing speed and colliding with Godavari’s stern to the cheer of the Pakistani ship’s company. According to the Navy Chief Admiral Nirmal Verma,
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PRO NAVY
INS Godavari was directed to inquire about the welfare of the six Indian seamen on board the Suez. Pakistan lodged a protest in Islamabad on June 17, and India’s MEA in New Delhi followed suit the next day, which was a holiday, by calling a Counselor of the Pakistan Embassy to South Block. External Affairs Minister S M Krishna stated it was, ‘momentary confusion and nothing substantial’. Collisions at sea between warships need full investigation. Pakistan Foreign Office spokesperson Tehmina Janjua stated, “The Indian Navy’s warship Godavari not only hampered humanitarian operations being carried out by PNS Babur for MV Suez, but also undertook dangerous manoeuvres that resulted in brushing of the sides of the two warships.” The collision between the two ships of two neighbouring navies provides a good study of how maritime issues should not be allowed to simmer and escalate. The incident could have been avoided, if India’s NHQ, MoD and MEA had coordinated in advance and good time, and had informed the Pakistan Navy the reasons why INS Godavari left her piracy station to close in on MV Suez. In fact, PNS Babur on learning of the approach of the INS Godavari, was being directed by Islamabad in an operation codenamed Umeed-e-Nuh by CNS Noman Bashir. The open seas of the world are the January 2012
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WIKIMEDIA/TOOK-RANCH
THE EASTERN THREAT: There have been several examples of confrontations between the Chinese and Indian Navies in the recent past
common heritage of mankind and all ships are free to innocently roam the seas and obey the rules of the road, which apparently did not happen in this case. It may be recalled that the Dutchman Hugo Grotius formulated the principle that the seas were akin to international territories and all nations were free to use the seas for trade. In his treatise, Mare Liberum, (‘The Free Seas’), published in 1609, Grotius offered a justification for the Dutch to break Britain’s trade monopolies and its formidable naval power. The conflicting claims grew out of their controversial actions in each other’s seas in the 19th century, but it was finally accepted that the seas were free for ships to roam unhindered and the world adopted UNCLOS in 1982. In such a context, technically both INS Airavat sailing in the South China Seas and the Chinese vessel cruising off the Andaman Islands did nothing wrong, but both could be suspected of collecting electronic and physical intelligence. INS Godavari too, was free to sail close to PNS Babur and MV Suez which was being escorted in the Arabian Sea, though India and Pakistan have agreed on a CBM that both navies’ ships will not approach each other as close as three miles. In another development, China’s application for a deep-sea mining licence to extract nodules from an area of 10,000 sq www.geopolitics.in
km in central Southwestern Indian Ridge in the Indian Ocean has been cleared by International Seabed Authority (ISA), the designated body that allocates areas. This has raised concerns by India’s MoD, MEA and Naval Headquarters, as it will legally allow ‘Chinese survey’ (sic Intelligence) and hospital ships and warships to operate in the Indian Ocean. China’s PLA (Navy) has already been continuously operating a task force of three warships off the coast of Somalia since January 6, 2009, to combat piracy. Last year, China had proposed to become Co-Chairman of the Shared Awareness and Deconfliction (SHADE) piracy conference, held regularly at the Combined Maritime Forces (CMF) HQ in Bahrain, which naval and foreign service representatives of 20 countries, shipping and insurance bodies and Interpol attend. China demanded to become a Co-Chairman of SHADE and parcel areas of the Indian Ocean for responsibility to tame piracy, which was deftly opposed by India. The Somali piracy operations have affected shipping and human lives. In 2010, 4,185 seafarers were attacked and 1,090 held hostage, a third of these were abused. According to Reuters, in the last four years, 62 seafarers died out of over 3,500 captives, murdered or from suicide or malnutrition, while many released seafarers stand traumatised.
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Incidents and challenges at sea and especially in the Indian Ocean will increase calls for immediate responses. These will need close consultations and swift coordinated actions by the MEA and MoD, possibly in consultation with India’s National Security Advisor (NSA) and his large National Security Council Secretariat, which receives and collates intelligence inputs. A naval officer has been posted in MEA while the post of Joint Secretary (Exports) tenable by an IFS officer, has found no takers in MoD. The Navy has to route all requests for exercises with foreign navies and diplomatic cruises through MoD, which then deals with the desk in MEA concerned. The route is circuitous. There is a strong case for the need of a Joint Secretary (Maritime) to be a bridge, preferably from the Indian Foreign Service, in the South Block, with access to the Navy’s War Room for coordination, and regular interaction between the MoD and the Navy. As India’s stock rises and as a mature and responsible nation, it is in India’s foreign policy interests to evolve a cooperative architecture to play a substantive and formative role in issues maritime and for that the need for a maritime desk in the Ministry of External Affairs is inescapable. (Cmde (Retd) Ranjit B Rai is Vice President of Indian Maritime Foundation) January 2012
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More Naval surveillance aircraft
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deal for four more P-8I aircraft. The first of the new P-8I aircraft specially made for India is expected to join the Navy by 2013. The aircraft made its first successful flight in the United States in September 2013. In addition to these aircraft the Navy is also planning to acquire another six Medium range reconnaissance aircraft through a new tender.
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New BSF constables ON THE occasion of the 47th BSF Day on December 1, 2011, Additional Director General (West) Himmat Singh Gill told reporters that the paramilitary force would also create 1500 new posts of instructors. The increase in strength would result in the creation of seven to eight new battalions soon. 157 Border Out Posts (BOPs) are also being set up on the western frontier with improved facilities for the soldiers guarding the borders. The paramilitary force has also initiated new instruction courses for its men and even specialised courses for those being sent for UN missions. The extension in the strength and infrastructure would be undertaken with the `560crore grant to the BSF from the Union Home Ministry.
NAVAIR.NAVY.MIL
AFTER PLACING an order for the 12 P8I long-range maritime reconnaissance aircraft (LRMR) from the United States, the Indian Navy is all set to induct 12 more reconnaissance aircraft. These will go a long way to secure the country’s long coastline and the exclusive economic zones around its seas. The deal for the P-8I aircraft was signed in January 2009 and as part of it eight aircraft were initially procured for $2.1 billion. The Indian Navy is working out a
More districts under Counter-Maoist plan
www.geopolitics.in
THE INTEGRATED Action Plan (IAP) scheme of the Central Government will now be extended to 78 districts across nine Maoist-affected states from the next fiscal (2012-13). The IAP scheme is meant to achieve development in Naxal-hit regions with the local administration. Andhra Pradesh, arguably one of the birthplaces of the Naxalite movement, will get one-third of the 18 districts as a “peace dividend”. The Home Ministry had been in favour of expanding the IAP to new districts after the excellent outcome at the districts where the scheme was first implemented. Ventures like building of roads, bridges, schools, and electrification are carried out as part of the IAP scheme.
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HEMANT RAWAT
THE MARIJUANA was destroyed by Odisha Police in the Maoist-infested Sundarpur-Mahadev area under Nuagada Gram Panchyat limits. The police destroyed the ganja plantations being cultivated illegally near SundarpurMahadev forest area, about 45 km from Padampur police limits. According to the police, the marijuana crop was standing ripe for harvest over 12 acres of land in the midst of the forest. The police found the illegal plantation, acting on a tip-off. They cut down the crop with the help of the local villagers and later set the plants on fire. Although nobody was arrested, a case has been registered at Padampur police station.
PAUL WALLACE
THCFARMER.COM
Crore value of marijuana destroyed
January 2012
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Aspirants rejected
4.5
Billion dollars worth weapons sales to India
INDIANARMY.NIC.IN
INDIA IS now the third-largest procurer of American arms in the world, according to a Pentagon report. Overseas Foreign Arms Sales in the fiscal that ended Sep 30 peaked at $30 billion for the fourth successive year after attaining $31.6 billion in fiscal 2010. AcA THIRD of the 15,000 young men who had come to the Army recruitment rally at Akhnoor in Kashmir were in for a rude shock when they were rejected for sporting tattoos on their body other than their arms. Army officials said that they had received instructions from headquarters about barring the recruits with tattoos as they ‘proved hazardous to health’. Of the candidates who had turned up at the recruitment rally meant for the five districts of Jammu, Samba, Kathua, Rajouri and Poonch, nearly 30 per cent were found with tattoos and were barred. A number of the rejected aspirants confessed that they had got themselves tattooed as they thought it made them look more macho.
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cording to the American Department of Defence Afghanistan, Taiwan, India, Australia and Saudi Arabia were the main buyers of American weapons last year. Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Israel, Japan and Sweden were the next largest buyers.
Crore worth heroin seized
THE HEROIN, along with fake Indian currency (FICN) with a face value of `9.80 lakh was seized by the Border Security Force (BSF) in early December 2011. According to a Border Security Force officer, a patrol confiscated the contraband after it was thrown from the Pakistani side in small packets. The small sachets contained fake Indian currency in `1000 denomination. The heroin was carried in five packets weighing a kilo each. This is not the first time that the smugglers have resorted to tossing packets of FICN and heroin across the border. In the past too, contraband worth crores has been seized from fences along the border.
Pakistanis in Indian jails THE PAKISTANIS nationals have been lodged in a number of different prisons across the country because of their suspected involvement in terror activities. Mohamad Ajmal Kasab the lone surviving 26/11 Mumbai terror attack gunman, is one of the three Pakistanis who have been sentenced to death. According to Minister of State for Home Affairs Jitendra Singh Islamabad was told about the arrests of the Pakistanis through diplomatic channels and consular access by the Pakistani Government was also arranged.
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IM cells ready to strike
ACCORDING TO the Delhi Police, there are special Indian Mujahideen (IM) sleeper cells in different cities of India. The information comes after the Delhi Police helped to eradicate a pan-India module of the IM. The information was garnered after the interrogation of the IM operatives arrested from various regions of the country. The grilling of the terrorists has revealed that the IM has sleeper cells in Chennai, Bengaluru, Pune apart from New Delhi. According to the police, the sleeper cells of terrorists helped the terrorists acquire the weapons and explosives locally in all the cities where they have orchestrated attacks in the past. They also helped the perpetrators of the attacks by scouting prospective targets and by providing logistical support.
January 2012
HEMANT RAWAT
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SPECIALREPORT
500 MILES OF REALITY CHECKS
On a journey across the Forward Operating Posts along the Line of Control (LoC), ROHIT SRIVASTAVA discovers the harsh reality that confronts the soldiers at the borders of the country in Jammu and Kashmir.
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THE FINAL FRONTIER: The LoC fence, technically known as the Anti-Infiltration Obstacle System, meanders through mountains across the border
HEMANT RAWAT
HAT BEGAN as a trip for a story on border management by the Army ended up becoming an educational trip…A journey of more than 500 km through the state of Jammu and Kashmir, where I went to the different border posts and forward deployed units. I met people responsible for securing the borders from the enemy across the LoC, and their stooges within our territory. On the first night of my visit to Jammu, I was at the LoC fence, technically known as the Anti-Infiltration Obstacle System (AIOS), along with the Commanding Officer of the unit at the Lam Khuraita Valley. The eerie silence of the Valley in the chilling November night was frightening but the relatively young colonel, an enthusiastic man, put me at ease. He was cautious while explaining the system of border guarding. The significance of the position of the battalion can be understood by the fact that on the other side of the fence is a Pakistani town, which is so well-illuminated that it looks like a white sheet of light in the midst of the darkness of the Valley. Strangely, the landscape on the Indian side was rather barren, except for a few villages scattered in the Lam Valley. When I asked the Commanding Officer of the battalion about the Pakistani defence
measures on the border, he said that they had very limited security, as they knew India was not interested in changing the status quo. The Pakistanis might not be afraid of infiltration from the Indian side, but we have three layers of security. While the Indian fence is way behind the LoC, the actual LoC is guarded by our men on the posts with the closest one to the enemy position being not more than 300 metres away. Behind that line of defence is the fence and after that we have regular patrols and bunker posts. All the three layers are supported by electronic surveillance systems, such as thermal imagers and motionsensors.
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January 2012
g SPECIALREPORT Pakistan has developed a town barely four kilometres from the fence without any fear. On the other hand, the security situation in the region has not permitted the construction of a proper road to the battalion headquarters on the Indian side. Our journey from the main road to the battalion was only one and half kilometres but it took us nearly an hour to travel the stretch. The road was not motorable for medium vehicles and anyone unfamiliar with it would never try driving on that track at night. As we reached the battalion headquarters, we were greeted by the secondin-command. His office was lit with a single bulb, thanks to the silent diesel generators. As we approached the officers’ mess we began to make out the silhouettes of the sentries on watch in the moonlight. In the small and sparsely-furnished mess, we were offered tea before our visit to the fence with the CO of the battalion. When I enquired about the high security around the camp, the major informed us it was because of the close proximity of the border and the threat of attacks on the camp by the infiltrators: “We can’t lower our guard. Anything can happen
www.geopolitics.in
any time. We have to be very vigilant. The night is a very tense time for every soldier. No one gets more than four hours of sleep. The guard duty is changed after every two hours to keep the men fresh and vigilant.” The real drama unfolds at night. The men move in pairs in rotation. In posts and bunkers, of the two soldiers, one sits inside the bunker while the other strolls around. The ear becomes the eye at night and every noise is seen as a possible threat. The CO of the battalion confided that the daylight hours went into the preparation for vigilance at night when 95 per cent of infiltration took place. Clearly, even though the presence of the fence had reduced the burden on the sentries at the border, vigilance is still the keyword. As we accompanied the CO on a patrol to the LoC fence, we saw dark figures emerging in pairs: these were the border patrols in buddy pairs, who are always on the move around the fence area. These men are the last line of defence against infiltration. After more encounters such as these, I became used to the phantoms and could differentiate between the real men on guard and the dummies put to confuse potential infiltrators. In any case, the dummies never saluted the officers or introduced themselves to the CO when asked, Kaun? Every such call was replied in Army manner with name and designation. At midnight, the vigil was at its peak. Vigilance becomes second nature in these areas. No one ventures out alone — even in the camps. The battalion headquarters is under patrol all the time. Our small patrol party of three — the CO, our photographer and I — was under a protective cordon of six men in full battle gear. The fear of a sneak attack from a hidden terrorist was very real. [The same thing was repeated the very next day at a Rashtriya Rifle (RR) unit in Rajouri district, when we were accompanied to a Sadbhavna project by three armed guards, even when we had to walk just 40 metres from the RR Unit Headquarters.] When we reached the Company Operated Base (COB) after our patrol, we sensed tension. The CO was taken to one side for a briefing. He came back and informed us that we would have to wait because of an urgent development. As we were offered tea and hot pakodas, I was interested in finding out what the tension was all about. On enquiring further I was informed that firing had taken place on
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the border and within a short while we heard the unmistakable sound of medium machine-gun fire from the Pakistani positions. Keeping one’s nerve intact is the most important thing at the time of firing. The jawans and the officers never panic and are expected to react only when attacked directly. Every bunker is self-sufficient in terms of operational requirement with telephone lines to pass on the information to the base. When the firing was going on, the CoB’s telephone was constantly ringing and the desk officer kept on updating the information from bunkers. Later, I was told that the firing was not specifically targeted at our men but between two posts. On our way back, the CO explained that when the Pakistanis see some movement across the fence they start firing as a precaution without targeting any one in particular. Our stay at the COB had been only for a few minutes but we witnessed the human side of the soldier at the border. He is not as mechanical as we believe he is. Sitting in a bunker, 200 metres from the enemy in pitch darkness in the middle of the forest on the border, he is not as fearless as we think. In fact, he too fears death. On our arrival at the battalion headquarters, the security party was dismissed and soldiers were lined up for barrel checks. After taking out the magazine from the gun, every soldier pulled the gun’s lever thrice to check for any leftover bullets: it was a drill to ensure no accidental firing occurred. This drill was followed after every patrol at every location. The next day we were at an RR battalion’s CoB in Rajauri district. The only way to reach the mountain top where the CoB was located was by a road that was being constructed under the Pradhanmantri Gramin Sadak Yojna. We were told that it was a 20-minute climb up from the road but it took 45 minutes. When we reached the top of the camp, it was almost freezing. The wind chill factor made us shiver but there was respite when we reached the CoB that was in a group of small tin huts. The company commander — a young captain of 26-27 years of age with six years of service under his belt — was using the medical room to meet an informer who had come with information about a militant hideout. We were to become witnesses to another drama that lasted almost three hours. The captain had met the informer for around 45 minutes before he came to greet us. Till then, January 2012
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SPECIALREPORT
READY FOR ACTION: With Pakistani posts just a few miles away, vigilance is the keyword at the Line of Control
we were served hot snacks and coffee. (The Army’s precision timing of service was commendable across the units.) When I asked the captain about the informer, he told us that the man was a former special police officer who wanted money for information regarding a hideout. The young captain was a tough cookie: he did not want to take chances with the information he had received. As he called up his commanders to let them know about the development, he sent the informer’s friends home but asked him to stay at the CoB for the night. He also asked his subedar to prepare a 20-man party for an operation. Soon afterwards, we sat for dinner but couldn’t start till the captain was free. For around an hour and a half, he was continuously on phone talking with his commanders. He informed them that he would not launch the operation till the informer confirmed the location of the hideout that he was reluctant to divulge. As we went to bed, the jawans’ dormitory next to our room, was full of noisy activity: shifts were changing and men were getting ready for night duty and preparing for sleep. The CO of the battalion at Lam Valley informed Geopolitics that the soldiers no longer led a stressed-out life. As it is, they www.geopolitics.in
are separated from their families but now with satellite television, there is some connectivity to normal life. The jawans also go through what is called a stressbusting capsule. Every week, four jawans are sent to Naoshera (brigade headquarters) from the battalion for these stressbusting capsules and even for movies. The men do not take part in sporting activities — an integral part of military life — due to space constraints. The terrain also does not allow space for sports other than badminton, informed the CO. One company was deployed at every peak around our CoB location. The area domination is never complete if the companies are not deployed in a way so as to reach every nook and cranny of the area. Every company dispatches patrols in its area for surveillance, intelligence gathering and search for terrorists. This completes the area domination. The captain seemed to be holding back his troops. We understood when he said: “AFSPA is hot now, we can’t take risk. I want to be sure before launching operations.” RR has become very cautious about allegations and doesn’t want to take any unnecessary risks. Terrorism is almost dead. Signs of a return of normalcy are visible as small civil disputes have started to take place,
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suggested one officer. But, he said, we cannot put our guard down. Till 2004, a large swathe in Rajouri and Poonch was considered a liberated zone by terrorists. The Jammu region is marked by demographic changes — 86 per cent of the population is Hindu in Jammu and 86 per cent is Muslim in the Poonch district. Demography has a very important role in terrorism as religious sympathy has a key part to play in the spread of terror. But the mindset of the people is changing as people are slowly discontinuing their support for the terrorists. Normalcy is returning and its signs are everywhere. Roads which would be deserted by five pm are now busy till midnight. A few years back, it was impossible to even imagine vehicles plying on the roads. According to deployed officers, one of the signs that normalcy is returning is that the local population has begun to express itself, with many small squabbles being reported of late. The battle hasn’t been won but we are on the right track. The local administration hasn’t done much but the Army’s support through various civil schemes has ensured that unemployed youth do not turn to violence. It is still an ongoing battle on many fronts. January 2012
geopolitics
NPCIL
DEF BIZ
FISSILE STRENGTH India has one of the world’s most comprehensive nuclear power programmes, but it is a strategy that requires the co-ooption of the private sector into this ambitious project
DEF BIZ
LOCKHEED MARTIN
Lockheed Martin rolls out final F-22 Raptor
THE FINAL F-22 Raptor rolled off from Lockheed Martin’s assembly line on December 13, 2011. With this the US Air Force got its 187th F-22 for its operational fleet. The last fighter (tail number 4195) will undergo production flight checks and will be delivered to the user in 2012. On the occasion, Jeff Babione, Vice President and General Manager for Lockheed Martin’s F-22 programme, said, “This event honours the many men and women of Team Raptor who have taken this plane from concept to reality. For the last 17 years, regardless of the challenges, they always remained singularly focused, delivering the world’s greatest fighter. Each Raptor — from the first jet to the last jet — is a reflection of the dedication, hard work and professionalism of our workforce.” Lockheed Martin partners with the US Air Force to ensure Raptor availability, performance and reliability, and to enhance the aircraft’s capabilities to keep it ahead of emerging and proliferating threats.
g HAL, Rolls-Royce start new facility ROLLS-ROYCE and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) have initiated construction of a new manufacturing facility in Bengaluru, which will be owned by International Aerospace Manufacturing Pvt Ltd (IAMPL), a jointventure between Rolls-Royce and HAL. The company was formed in 2010. Spread over 7,200 sq metres, the facility will manufacture components for advanced Trent family of civil aero engines, marine and energy gas turbines. Expected to start production in 2012, the latest manufacturing techniques of Rolls-Royce will be employed for the production of high-performance equipment. The facility is expected to create jobs for high-end technicians and engineers. PV Deshmukh, Chairman, HAL, speaking on the occasion, said: “Rolls-Royce and HAL have been strategic partners since 1956 when HAL started producing the Orpheus engine under licence. As a result of our strong collaboration, we have progressively contributed to the development of the Indian aerospace industry.”
BEML to set up unit in Indonesia BHARAT EARTH Movers Limited (BEML), the earth-moving equipment major, will be executing `6500 crore worth of orders in the next year. Chairman and Managing Director VRS Natarajan said BEML was also moving into the tank production business. The manufacturer will make battle tank engines and transmissions for the indigenously developed main battle tank Arjun. In addition, the company is planning to develop and build 155-mm, 52-caliber tracked guns for the Indian Army, in collaboration with foreign firms. BEML’s aerospace division is soon going to have a new manufacturing unit for production of components for the aviation sector. BEML is the only Indian firm that makes metro rail passenger cars and is planning to start a new subsidiary focused on the rail business. This year BEML had a turnover of around `1500 crore up from `1300 crore last year.
EUROCOPTER
Helo deal: Eurocopter, Kamov in contention TWO CONTENDERS have emerged from last year’s field trials for the light utility helicopter (LUH) deal to replace the Cheetah helicopters for Indian Air Force and Army. The commercial bid will be opened very soon for the final negotiation with the last two contenders. The twin-engine Kamov 226 (Russian) and the single-engine Eurocopter AS 550 Fennec are the two last contenders in the bid. They are going to be invited for the price negotiations. India is replacing the Cheetahs, which were bought in 1970s from France. They are the lifeline for Army deployments at high altitudes in Kashmir and Siachen. The procurement process began in 2005 with tender for 197 helicopters. The contract is expected to be worth around $1billion. Initially, the order is expected to be as per tender requirement but the final figure might become double of the initial requirement. However, there is no clear indication yet as to which helicopter will turn out to be cheaper. KAMOV
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January 2012
g Airbus seeks to sell tankers to IAF
PIB
Satellite terminals on Navy ships
AIRBUS MILITARY, a unit of European Aeronautic, Defence and Space Company (EADS), is in contention to sell its A330 refueling-tanker aircraft to India. It submitted its bid for the Air Force tanker in a 2010 tender. The only company offering a competitor to the A330 in the Indian contract would be Russian, as Boeing hasn’t responded to the request for proposals (RFP), news agency AFP reported, citing unidentified people in the aerospace industry. A330 is going to face competition from the Russian Ilyushin 78
from United Aircraft Corporation. In the previous tender, one of the leading tanker manufacturers, Boeing, didn’t participate. Media reports have quoted Boeing, as saying, “Boeing did not submit a proposal in 2011 for India’s tanker requirement. If there is interest from our Indian customers, we will be happy to evaluate any future requirements.” Airbus lost the tanker deal for the US Air Force to Boeing. Till now, 28 A330 have been sold to countries such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia, the UK and Australia.
PIB
$35b worth aerospace tenders by India IN THE next ten years India will purchase aerospace equipment worth $35 billion. Vivek Rae, Director General (Acquisitions), speaking at a seminar said, “Indian aerospace industry will be making purchases worth $35 billion over the next ten years. Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft purchase itself would be about $15 billion.” The opportunity for Indian industry from the defence offset itself will be around $10bn. All defence deals above `300 crore had 30 per cent mandatory offset, the DG further informed. He said that the government had already signed `18,000 crore (($3.6 billion) worth of defence contracts and the aerospace contracts would be worth around `14,000 crore.
The Indian Navy has begun installing satellite terminals on its ships as the countdown to Navy’s own satellite has begun. As per sources, the Indian Navy is expected to get its own exclusive satellite for communication and intelligence by July 2012. The Navy is procuring satellite terminals from three companies for its three arms: surface, sub-surface and aircraft, separately from three different companies. The contract for the aircraft was won by Aero Marine, for ships by Orbit and Indra bagged the one for submarines. The purchase order for the submarine terminals is expected in three to four months and the installation will take another eight months. The contract for the ten submarine satellite terminals is worth $13.8 million.
Lockheed Martin’s innovation programme UNDERLINING THE programme’s commitment to enhance the growth and development of India’s entrepreneurial economy, the Department of Science and Technology and Lockheed Martin organised the India Innovation Growth Programme. Interactive meetings were organised between winning technology innovators and potential investors during the Technology Expo on December 8, 2011, Mumbai. The India Innovation Growth www.geopolitics.in
Programme was launched in March 2007 by Lockheed Martin, FICCI and the IC2 Institute. It has now been
joined by the Department of Science and Technology, Government of India, and the Indo-US S&T Forum. The aim of the programme is to accelerate innovative Indian technologies into
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markets in the United States and around the world since its introduction in India. The programme has so far received more than 2,000 applications. Over 150 agreements have been signed till date (since 2007). Several commercialisation deals were also signed at the event. Many of the programme winners signing the commercialisation deals had technologies that dealt with health, energy and environmental initiatives. January 2012
DEF BIZ Piramal Group eyes homeland security
Boeing delivers second Peace Eye to S Korea
BOEING
PIRAMAL SYSTEMS and Technologies (PST), a part of the Ajay Piramal Group, is entering the defence business with a joint venture firm, with Global Technical Systems (GTS), a US-based technology firm, specialised in surveillance system as partner. Piramal-GTS will look for business in maritime and border-management solutions. Piramal Systems and Technologies Pvt Ltd was set up in May 2011. The company’s decision to start this venture is based on the Maharashtra government’s decision to install 5,000 surveillance cameras, video analytics and management, data preservation centres and six command and control centres.
g
THE BOEING Company has delivered the second Peace Eye 737 Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) aircraft to the Republic of Korea Air Force (ROKAF). The aircraft was delivered ahead of schedule to ROKAF Base Gimhae, the main operating base for the Peace Eye fleet. Peace Eye No. 2 has been modified by Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) at its facility in Sacheon into an AEW&C confi uration. Randy Price, Peace Eye programme manager for Boeing, said, “The quality of KAI’s work has been outstanding. Its
commitment to excellence, its focus and its technical expertise were critical to the achievement of this major milestone.” Two more Peace Eye aircraft are undergoing modification by KAI and are expected to join the ROKAF in 2012. The Peace Eye programme is for four 737 AEW&C aircraft along with ground support for mission crew training, mission support and system maintenance. Australia and Turkey have also ordered for 737-based AEW&C aircraft, which are undergoing production.
PRATT & WHITNEY
Pratt & Whitney to power India-bound Boeing C-17s
PRATT & WHITNEY, a unit of United Technologies Corp, has received a contract to produce the first four F117-PW-100 engines that will power the Boeing C-17 Globemaster-III for the Indian Air Force.
www.geopolitics.in
Pratt & Whitney is the world leader in the design, manufacture and service of aircraft engines, space propulsion systems and industrial gas turbines. The engines will be delivered in
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second quarter of 2012. Earlier this year, India’s Ministry of Defence signed a Letter of Offer and Acceptance with the US government to acquire 10 C-17s. India will take delivery of its first C-17s in early 2013.
May 2012 2010 January
TECH SCAN
THE DEFENCE Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) has completed the testing of an indigenous autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV). The AUV operates around a mother ship from where it is launched, controlled and recovered. The new probe has an immense use in intelligence-gathering and deep-sea surveillance. The AUV can help the Indian Navy monitor waters and help stave off potentially threatening foreign vessels or submarines. Its development involves inter-disciplinary efforts in the fields of hydrodynamics, control and guidance.
DRDO to develop robot soldiers THE DEFENCE Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) has started work on an ambitious project to swap “humans” with “robot soldiers” in future wars. Speaking at the Combat Vehicle Research and Development Centre in Avadi, Dr VK Saraswat, Scientific Advisor to the Defence Minister and Secretary, Defence R&D, said: “We are working on the project to have robot soldiers by 2020 or 2030.” It is being mooted that the robot soldiers will be able to perform numerous missions, such as including waging war, transporting ammunition, mine detection and surveillance. They in turn can be managed by operators from distant locations. The robots will help put Indian soldiers out of harm’s way in dangerous situations. The DRDO is already developing robotic ‘mules’ to replace the live ones that the armed forces use to transport supplied to troops deployed in distant locations.
WINDOWSFORDEVICES.COM
WIKIMEDIA\MIERLO
India develops autonomous underwater vehicle
g
PIB
India to create solar-powered UAVs THE DRDO is all set to develop a solarbased Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV). The agency, responsible for the creation of this unique device, will be the Aeronautical Development Establishment (ADE), a lab of the DRDO. A hunt is on for a foreign partner to develop the project. This UAV will have an extended flight duration — as much as 15 days — compared to usual UAVs. These high-endurance UAVs can be used for surveillance and reconnaissance purposes. Mini UAVs, which are in the range of up to two kilograms, have been developed by the ADE and are now being put through their paces. The ADE has even developed a UAV as small as 300 mm. The Army, police and paramilitary forces have been shown these mini-UAVs.
Guns with built-in night-vision scopes
INDIAN SOLDIERS will soon be able to see in the dark, that too without the use of heavy nightvision equipment. The Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) is developing a night-vision integrated 5.56 mm rifle for the purpose. This system will allow soldiers to mount a quick reaction to hostile situations in the dark. A sensor and a thermal imaging device will be incorporated onto the rifle itself. According to senior officials at the DRDO’s Armament and Combat Engineering branch, they are also working on an innovative single-hand operated carbine. Officials also added that a 5.56mm calibre weapon will be traded in for the Future-INSAS, a prototype INDIA SUCCESSFULLY test fired its nuclear-capable Agni-I which is currently in development. strategic ballistic missile from the test range at Wheeler Island off the coast of Odisha. This version of the Agni has a range of 700 kilometres and is nuclear capable. Powered by solid propellants the home-grown surface-to-surface, single-stage missile was test fired from a mobile launcher. The navigation system mounted on the Agni-I missile is highly specialised, which enables the missile to reach its target with uncanny accuracy. The Army’s Strategic Force Command carried out the tests while the logistical support was made available by the Defence Research Development Organisation (DRDO). The Agni-1 can a carry a 1,000 kilogramme payload in its 15-metre long frame.
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RUNESTORM.COM
PIB
India test fires Agni-1
January 2012
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GEOPOLITICS
DEFBIZ
THE INDIAN NUCLEAR SECTOR:
PROGRESS AND PROSPECTS
The Indian nuclear programme will be able to fulfil its destiny of becoming a prime contributor to the country’s quest for energy security when the imported nuclear reactors are indigenised, writes SAURAV JHA
www.geopolitics.in
very likely that Indian nuclear reactors will go back to operating at very highcapacity factors (i.e. more 95 per cent) that was so characteristic of their performance in the late nineties and in the first few years of the new millennium. Indeed, after an uneven first decade for the 21st century, India’s PHWR programmeme is geared to speed again. January 2011 saw the commissioning of Kaiga-4, which too had been held up by the fuel mismatch problem. Fuel cargo from France and Russia was key facilitators in remedying the problem and is now being joined by supplies from Kazakhstan, which recently emerged as the largest exporter of natural uranium in the world. The availability of uranium import has also begun to reflect itself in NPCIL’s new build plans. Construction of four 700 MWe PHWRs began in 2011 with two units being built at the Rawatbhatta site as RAPP-7 & 8 and two at the Kakrapar site as KAPS 3 and 4. In the future, 700 MWe units will displace the existing 220 MWe units as the mainstay of India’s PHWR fleet. In fact, some 20 new PHWR’s are to be constructed by 2027. Some of the firm sites for these new PHWRs include Kumaria (Haryana), Bargi (Madhya Pradesh) and Nawada (Bihar). Unfortunately, even as the PWHR programme is back on a firm footing, the move to set up imported LWRs has run into heavy weather. Kudanakulam 1 & 2, both Rosatom VVER-1000s, initially weighed down by delays in sourcing components owing to constant restructuring in the Russian nuclear estate, are now
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being stalled by domestic protests, only somewhat influenced by the Fukushima effect. Earlier this year, four more reactors of the VVER-1000 design have been cleared at the Kudanakulam site and ground break for the first of these four units was expected to take place in 2012. Given the current situation at the site, it is unclear when — if ever — this will happen. Meanwhile, civil works continue at Jaitapur, with the boundary wall being
NPCIL
I
NDIA’S DEPARTMENT of Atomic Energy (DAE) has one of the most extensive nuclear power programmemes in the world today, the ongoing crisis at Kudankulam notwithstanding. Few countries (if any) can boast of a plan to set up Light Water Reactors (LWRs), Pressurised Heavy Water Reactors (PHWRs), Fast Breeder Reactors (FBRs) and Thorium-utilising reactors near simultaneously. This is, of course, a direct result of the country’s three-stage programmeme which now boasts of a fleet of 20 operational reactors with seven in various stages of construction. In all, India intends to have in place at least 20,000 MWe of nuclear capacity by 2020 and 63,000 MWe by 2032. Even if the 2020 target is not fully met owing to post-Fukushima jitters, the fact remains that the nuclear option is indispensable for an India looking to augment nonemitting sources of base-load power. The DAE’s extensive plans are certainly being helped by India’s re-entry into the international nuclear order. Visible examples of the impact of India’s post-2008 ability to import uranium were the commissioning by the Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL) of the Rajasthan Atomic Power Plant (RAPP)-5 in 2010 and the attainment of criticality by its twin unit RAPP-6 in the same period. Both units had actually been completed two years earlier but could not be brought on line due to a mismatch between domestic fuel production and demand. Given that domestic sources of uranium are also being augmented, it is
January 2012
g DEFBIZ Atomic Power Station KNPP-1, Kudankulam, Tamil Nadu KNPP-2, Kudankulam, Tamil Nadu PFBR, Kalpakkam, Tamil Nadu. KAPS-3, Kakrapar, Gujarat KAPS-4,Kakrapar, Gujarat RAPP-7, Rawatbhatta, Rajasthan RAPP-8, Rawatbhatta, Rajasthan
Capacity 1,000 1,000 500 700 700 700 700
Agency (MWe) NPCIL NPCIL BHAVINI NPCIL NPCIL NPCIL NPCIL
Expected commissioning date 2012 2013 2012 2015 2015 2016 2016
Physical progress (%) (as on December 2011) 99.20 94.60 84.00 N.A N.A N.A N.A
5300 built at the moment. It seems that the fulcrum of protest has shifted from Ratnagiri to Kudankulam for the time being. The Jaitapur site has, of course, been earmarked for French major Areva’s 1600 MWe European Pressurised Reactors and NPCIL expects to set up six such reactors at this site. Much will, however, depend on how successful the Maharashtra government is with its relief and rehabilitation package. Now, while existing imported LWR projects are encountering difficulties, progress on designating further sites to reactor suppliers from around the world continues to be registered. The Americans, who are AMBITIOUS GOALS: India has one of the most-extensive nuclear power programmes in the world today
www.geopolitics.in
always concerned about not getting a share of the Indian nuclear pie fast enough, have been allocated a site each in Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh. While the Mithi Virdi (or Chayamithi Virdi) in Gujarat has been selected to host Toshiba Westinghouse AP1000 reactors, Kovvada in Andhra Pradesh will get GE Hitachi Advanced Boiling Water Reactor units. The Russians, unhappy with the Paschimbanga (West Bengal) government’s stance on Haripur, which is expected to witness the setting-up of four 1200 MWe VVER-1200 units, are demanding the allocation of a new site which may possibly be located on the east coast in Odisha. The second and third stages of India’s nuclear programme, however, continue to advance steadily though a little slowly. The Pressurised Fast Breeder Reactor
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(PFBR) being constructed at Kalpakkam is nearing completion with physical progress touching the 85 per cent mark and in all likelihood will see commercial operations sometime in 2012. Incidentally, the Kalpakkam site will host a further two 500 MWe Fast Breeders by 2020 and four more are expected to come up elsewhere by the same date. The plutonium generated by these reactors will be used to start up a 1000 MWe version of these reactors in the post-2020 period. Indeed, metallic fuelled fast-breeder reactors are expected to become the most numerous kind of reactor in use in India by 2035. It is likely that India’s first thorium-utilising reactor, the Advanced Heavy Water Reactor (AHWR), will see construction in the Twelfth Plan period (2012-17). Although no site has been decided as yet, a critical facility for the AHWR was commissioned at BARC, Trombay in 2008. This 300 MWe reactor combines the features of both LWRs and PHWRs and represents a generational jump in terms of safety and durability. Moreover, the design has already begun inspiring spinoffs such as the AHWR-LEU, which was unveiled in 2009 and is being promoted for export purposes. At the end of the day, however, the Indian nuclear programme will not be able to realise its true potential without sufficient domestic manufacturing support. Indeed, anticipating major demand from nuclear programmes, the past couple of years have seen severable notable domestic companies entering the nuclear component manufacturing space by leveraging both in-house capability and entering into partnerships with international majors. The leader of the pack is, of course, heavy engineering giant Larsen & Toubro (L&T), one of the ten international companies qualified by the American Society of Mechanical Engineers to fabricate nuclear-grade pressure vessels and core support structures. This Indian giant January 2012
g DEFBIZ has wasted no time in entering the nuclear component supply sweepstakes. It presently has a new forging facility under construction at Hazira, Gujarat, which has been set up as a result of an agreement with NPCIL in 2008. This facility will produce 600-tonne ingots in its steel-melt shop and consist of a very large forging press designed to supply finished forgings for nuclear reactors, pressurisers and steam generators. L&T has also entered into component supply agreements with GE-Hitachi, Atomstroyexport, AECL and Toshiba-Westinghouse. Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd (BHEL), meanwhile, plans to spend $7.5 billion in the next couple of years building plants to supply components for reactors of sizes up to 1,600 MWe. The company also has plans to set up a 50-50 venture with NPCIL, which will supply turbines for nuclear plants of varying sizes. It is understood that collaboration with foreign enterprises will also be sought for this purpose. In fact, it was announced in July 2009 that BHEL was close to finalising a European partner to take 30-35 per cent of this joint venture. A JV with NPCIL to manufacture steam generators for indigenous as well as imported nuclear plants is also on the anvil. BHEL also CRUCIAL FOR GROWTH: The nuclear option is indispensable for India as it looks to augment non-emitting sources of base-load power
Reactor
Type
Commissioning date
RAPS-1, Rawatbhatta, Rajasthan
PHWR
100/NA
December 1973
RAPS-2, Rawatbhatta, Rajasthan
PHWR
200/188
April 1981
RAPS-3, Rawatbhatta, Rajasthan
PHWR
220/202
June 2000
RAPS-4, Rawatbhatta, Rajasthan
PHWR
220/202
December 2000
RAPS-5, Rawatbhatta, Rajasthan
PHWR
220/202
February 2010
RAPS-6, Rawatbhatta, Rajasthan
PHWR
220/202
March 2010
MAPS-1, Kalpakkam, Tamil Nadu
PHWR
220/202
January 1984
MAPS-2, Kalpakkam, Tamil Nadu
PHWR
220/202
March 1986
NAPS-1, Narora, Uttar Pradesh
PHWR
220/202
January 1991
NAPS-2, Narora, Uttar Pradesh
PHWR
220/202
July 1992
KAIGA-1, Kaiga, Karnataka
PHWR
220/202
November 2000
KAIGA-2, Kaiga, Karnataka
PHWR
220/202
March 2000
KAIGA-3, Kaiga, Karnataka
PHWR
220/202
May 2007
KAIGA-4, Kaiga, Karnataka
PHWR
220/202
January 2011
KAPS-1, Kakrapar, Gujarat
PHWR
220/202
May 1993
KAPS-2, Kakrapar, Gujarat
PHWR
220/202
September 1995
TAPS-1, Tarapur, Maharashtra
BWR
160/150
October 1969
TAPS-2, Tarapur, Maharashtra
BWR
160/150
October 1969
TAPS-3, Tarapur, Maharashtra
PHWR
540/495
May 2006
TAPS-4, Tarapur, Maharashtra
PHWR
540/495
September 2005
NPCIL
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Rating MWe/ Net MWe
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seeks to join Areva and Bharat Forge in their joint venture for casting and forging nuclear components intended for both the export and domestic market, which is expected to come online by 2012. Incidentally, UK’s Sheffield Forgemasters will be a technical partner. The partners have apparently shortlisted Dahej in Gujarat and Krishnapatnam and Visakhapatnam in Andhra Pradesh as possible sites. Incidentally, HCC (Hindustan Construction Co) secured an order worth $200 million for RAPP 7&8 from NPCIL in December 2010. The materialisation of these ventures will definitely ease the situation for the Indian nuclear programme as it steams into the 21st century unshackled by the vestiges of the 20th. Indeed, the indigenisation of imported nuclear plants is a stated goal of Indian nuclear planners and must be pursued as nothing short of an ideology. It is only then that the Indian nuclear programme will be able to fulfil its destiny of becoming a prime contributor to India’s quest for energy security. January 2012
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GEOPOLITICS LOCKHEED MARTIN
INTERVIEW
Lockheed is in the news for the F-35. But there is more to it than this fifth-generation fighter aircraft as ROGER ROSE elaborates in an exclusive interview with ROHIT SRIVASTAVA. Excerpts:
HEMANT RAWAT
How do you see Offset as an evolving policy? RR: I think there are some very smart guys who are working in those issues in Ministry and I am very hopeful that a very positive policy will come out. Lockheed has done $40 billion worth of offsets in the past 40 years. Currently, we have 70 ongoing commitments in 20 countries worth $20.2 billion in outstanding commitment including India. Offsets for the first six C130J have been successful and all projects have been approved and we are executing those projects. We have been working on banking credits for future sales. If you really want the best technology, if you bid in a competitive process, you bid an offset package along with the equipment package. That takes a year or so to put together and then it take two years to complete procurement process and then they say get ready to deliver you get into Moors Law. The low technology equipment may not change that span of time but a very high-tech like chip will evolve very fast. The ministry is building in rules to provide flexibility to let that change to benefit the companies providing the offset.
"WE ARE NOT PUSHING THE F-35 TO INDIA!"
How do you see the debate over F-35 for India? RR: We are out of MMRCA and I wish nothing but success to the IAF in filling out their fighter fleet. We are done with the competition. What has happened with F-35 that has caught in the Indian press is probably two things that at the Paris Air Show we came out with the cost of the F-35 being $65 million in 2011 US dollars, that is allinclusive of all the systems not the weapons. That number was quoted for all the nine partner countries and new customers like Israel and the nine partner countries that are looking to buy the F-35. That got caught on the Indian press as something that has been pointed out to India.
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January 2012
g INTERVIEW We always press the F-35 as a fifth-generation fighter at fourth-generation price. So we have done a lot of work to keep the costs down. So that has nothing to do with MMRCA that was just a number game at the Paris Air Show. On November 1, 2011, the office of Secretary of Defence completed a study that was requested by US Congress on engagement with the Indian defence establishment. And this was six- toeight months ago, but before that date it was directed by the Senate Arms Committee to the Department of Defence to give a report before November 1. Within that report, the terminology says F-35 should eventually be considered for India. It has nothing to do with timing of MMRCA competition. It was a US Defence Department report that pointed to the US Congress and it had nothing to do with Lockheed Martin. Any discussion on Joint Strike Fighter between India and the US has to be government-to-government and it will not be Lockheed Martin unless directed by the US government. And, by the way, this is not the first time F-35 is being discussed between the two governments. There have been requests from the Indian government to the US government for briefing on F-35. We are not pushing the F-35. There are technical glitches in F-35? RR: It’s a complicated machine and it will always run into some technical glitches. Lockheed Martin writes more code than Microsoft… there are 38 million lines of codes in the F-35. It is replacing every fighter or attack aircraft in the US inventory. By 2015 or so it should be in the US fleet and delivery to international customers will start from 2016. We are holding to that schedule and price. There are lots of interests for that fighter around the world. Tell us about more orders for C-130 J? RR: We are done when we deliver it to the US government and it is the US government which delivers to the Indian government. We are done with that a long time ago. Right now we are helping with the transition and helping with the support and the logistics with the back-end. We went from $70-million a plane to $ 59-million a plane and we can’t keep the excess and we have to give it back to the customer. We did at $70-million a plane originally as per estimate based on manuwww.geopolitics.in
facturing 12 planes per year. We are now making 36 aircraft a year, the volume and our efficiency and of our international partners have brought that number down to 59 million a plane so by FMS rule and the US law I can’t keep that profit. So we gave it back to the Indian Air Force. The return of the money is on going with the contract. It’s part of the contract. We don’t bid in FMS to exceed price and in DPP it requires firm prices. So when we say not to exceed $ 70 million it means $ 70 million or less. So they are just paying less at every delivery milestone. The aircraft is performing well it was at the Sikkim earthquake relief. I fully expect a follow-on sales but I can’t put a number to it. We are talking to the Air Force and also to the meteorological department looking at the WC 130 J, as this is the only aircraft that can fly through a hurricane or typhoon. We also have joint venture with Tata to manufacture C-130 J components at the facility at Hyderabad and it’s almost complete. We expect it to be in production by January. We expect that work to expand and make more and more component. It’s not just for Indian C-130 but for the global supply chain. I would like to build Indiaspecific C-130 J at the Hyderabad, it’s my vision. Tata is great company to work with. What is the update on Aegis for India? RR: We have offered co-operation on Aegis with Indian Navy. Those discussions are ongoing and I believe that as…the Aegis system is the only one that can fully protect a carrier battle group. We will get into more substantial discussion. It’s really a win-win situation that US Navy rely on Aegis system and it will be interoperable with US Navy. The Japanese, the Korean and the Australians are already operating the Aegis system. Another thing that comes with the Aegis missile system is the ship-building capability. We not only offered the weapons system but also to help on the weapon system we said, we will team with a Indian ship yard whichever shipyard whether private or public sector selected by Ministry of Defence, that offer is still there. We made our first proposal in January 15, 2007. The RFI was for the seven ships. We offered to build a couple of ships in a foreign shipyard (Korea) and then transfer the technology and build ships three to seven here. It was a five-year shipbuilding schedule at a very competitive price. I am not sure why they didn’t catch hold of the offer. As India looks ahead to being a major
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naval force in the Indian Ocean and a nation which secures the global maritime domain to have a common weapon system is a right thing. Our original teaming was with the Hyundai ship yard. Yesterday we had the last discussion on the Aegis the team that looks after the Aegis was in the town. More discussion was on the MH60R. They always touch base on the Aegis. The best thing about Aegis radar is that it is the only one that can track SM 2 missile, which is an anti-missile missile to its full range of capability. And that is the only missile today that can intercept a modern surface-to-surface missile that is coming to the carrier battle group. You have to have a certain frequency of radar to do that and at present India doesn’t have the radar to do that. They are working on a different frequency, which is fine for individual ship-protection but if you want to lose your major asset, there is only one system that can do that is SM 2 missile which is a Raytheon missile. What’s going on with MH60? RR: Looking at the next RFP to come out. We have given two options, one is we would be happy to sell through FMS directly to Indian Navy through the US government because we think it’s a unique capability and it’s a frontline, brand new US helicopter. I think we have delivered 100th Romeo to US recently. It is state-of-the-art in mission helicopters and recently it has been selected by Korea and Australia. It’s eye of the fleet for us, it gets in front of the carrier battle group and relays all the information. If MoD doesn’t want to pursue sole source then allow us to bid in to a RFP for 60 Romeo. There is still some disconnect in a FMS in competitive process and DPP. We are trying to pursue MoD to allow us to participate in RFP, We don’t want to bid if we are technically not compliant. We would love to bring that capability here. Obviously, there is a need for naval Helios in an anti-submarine warfare role. We will bid for RFP for 90 Helios for RFP which is expected sometime next year. ASW helio is the best thing for finding any submarine. What are your components in Apache and Javelin? RR: Boeing has got the lead in Apache; we have got some weapons system, navigation system and mission system. Raytheon is the lead for Javelin, we do somewhere around 40 per cent of the systems. January 2012
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PLEASE, I WANT SOME MORE ONCE RESPECTED THE WORLD OVER, AIR INDIA’S MAHARAJA IS ALL BUT READY TO THROW IN THE TOWEL. AMIDST REPORTS OF ITS DEMAND FOR MORE FUNDS, A LAST-DITCH EFFORT IS BEING MADE TO REVIVE THE AILING GIANT
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SPECIALFEATURE
THE FUTURE SOLDIER All the leading armies of the world are now undergoing technological transformations so as to make every soldier a ‘self-contained fighting unit”. His kit is now an electronic ensemble mostly embedded in the armour vest consisting of a wearable computer. Defence Research Development Organisation is, therefore, now working on its F-INSAS programme that will transform the Indian armed forces and at the same time reduce the standard soldier’s load by 50 per cent. DRDO’s initial sets may be rolled out in the 2012-13 time frame. F-INSAS will probably be the world’s largest soldier transformation programmes with a potential buy of more than 500,000 sets to equip the Indian Army’s 465 infantry battalions, writes SAURAV JHA
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wenty-first century hybrid threats representing everything from road-side bombs to mass terrorist strikes in crowded cities have made it clear that armies around the world need to refocus on the basic unit of warfare — the soldier itself. Beyond armour and airpower, the most relevant and flexible response mechanism remains the infantry and there is a move underway to augment the situational awareness, survivability, and combat effectivenes of the same. All current programmes seem to treat the soldier as a system of systems while seeking to keep a balance between information overload and enhanced capability. It is a good time therefore to survey the existing efforts while identifying key trends for the future. The chief thrust of all ongoing programmes is the need to create a modular Command, Control, Computers, Communication and Information (C4I) scheme for the individual soldier enabling him to transmit and receive real-time data, voice and images in a seamless manner. While digitisation of militaries around the world has been relatively simpler to do for armoured formations, since they essentially require an extension of wireless internet protocols to the existing command and control set-up, plugging individual soldiers into the larger digital network is a different ball game altogether. Networking the soldier has meant the
ONLY A MOCK-UP: The future soldier is being readied in labs
chief component of all so-called ‘future soldier’ kits is an electronic ensemble mostly embedded in the armour vest
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consisting of a wearable computer, peripheral device interfaces, energy management systems and man-machine interfaces. Take the Israeli Army’s Integrated Advanced Soldier (IAS) programme being developed by Israel’s Directorate of Defence Research and Development and Elbit systems for example. Its Personal Digital Unit (PDU) consists of a wearable computer coupled with a handheld display, a radio, eyepiece display and headsets, mobile Wireless Local Area Network (WLAN) and navigation system (mostly GPS). All components are to be found in the wearable system and armor vest and weigh below five kilogrammes. The chief feed-in peripherals for such a system are of course gun-mounted sights (essentially thermal or image-intensifying video cameras) and a helmet-mounted mini camera (day, thermal or light intensifier type). Typically a section commander’s target acquisition device is an uncooled thermal imager integrated with a laser rangefinder, electronic compass and GPS effective at ranges of over a km. While other section members usually mount an image intensifier tube on their guns. The other peripheral device is of course a two-way radio headsets integrated with the ballistic helmet. The idea is to “slave” all sensor information to the wearable computer and make it available to the soldier on displays that may be found on the armour January 2012
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Helmet: Blast-resistant and bullet-proof
Night-vision binocular
Assault rifle: Modern lightweight assault rifle with smaller barrel for better handling
VHF/UHF radio set: For communication with troops
DAVID MONNIAUX
Target designator: Gunmounted laser target designator for accurate targeting
Rugged tablet: Part of battlefield management system, provides soldiers with map, troop locations and objective
Handheld GPS navigator
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vest, on the wrist, be handheld or integrated onto the combat helmet itself as a collimated eyepiece. Information gathered by each soldier can then also be shared on the squad network and beyond (typically by hooking on to the larger army network through the console on the squad’s armoured mount) via high-speed wireless connectivity. This allows commanders to make tactical assessments and send back updated orders while keeping track of unit locations using the transmitted GPS data. Some systems like the IAS are also developing a new navigation system, enabling geo-location in areas where GPS cannot be relied upon. The system apparently uses a combination of gyro, compass, accelerometers and some other sensors to triangulate unit locations. Accuracy, however, will essentially be a function of the
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distance travelled after GPS is lost, as the basis for the initial reference is the last available GPS reading. Soldier systems of course go beyond the C4I element. One of the more mature systems like France’s Fantassin à
KEEPING UP WITH WESTERN TRENDS, INDIA'S DRDO HAS INSTITUTED A MODERNISATION PROGRAMME Équipements et Liaisons Intégrés or FELIN has 155 components in all, including a new low infrared combat outfit that is fire, water and mosquito repellent with the NBC version consisting of a new ventilation system. FELIN also has modular ballistic protection which can be tailored to the threat environment. The French Army has placed orders for 22,588 sets of the 23 kg FELIN with Sagem, of which apparently 5000 have already been delivered. The first units equipped with FELIN may be on their way to Afghanistan. FELIN’s combat headgear is also a much-touted feature and besides the ballistic helmet, protective visors and goggles, jawpad, night vision sensor (NVS), and OVD collimated eyepiece, boasts an Elno OH-295 osteo-microphone which detects speech by sensing the vibration in the wearer’s skull. The osteo-microphone coupled with a vibrating speaker enables good voice communications even in noisy situations. Like other soldier systems at the heart of the FELIN is the Plateforme Electronique Portable (PEP) embedded in the armour vest interacting with the soldier through various manmachine interfaces and managing the RIF infantry information TIME FOR A CHANGE: Keeping up with hi-tech innovations, the attire of the traditional solider will change
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network that networks the individual to other soldiers in the section and to the section leader, who in turn is linked with the SITEL battle management system of the section’s armoured personnel carrier via a Thales PR4G VS4 frequency-hopping tactical radio. Incidentally, SITEL developed by Sagem is becoming a common feature on French armoured vehicles. The ‘two gun sight scheme’ is also a feature of FELIN with infantryman being given an image intensifier while the commander is being issued a thermal-imaging weapon sight. Both kinds of sights are linked to the PEP, so the acquired images viewed through the guns sights are available on the soldier’s displays (including the OVD) and can also be transmitted via the network to other units and commanders. The video sights also allow the soldier to extend the weapon and aim around a corner much like Israel’s Cornershot system. At the moment FELIN is compatible with existing French Army infantry weapons such as the FAMAS assault rifle and the FR-F2 sniper rifle. In the future, the FELIN system hopes to add the new PAPOP rifle come programmeable grenade launcher system which is currently under development. Sagem’s JIM MR multifunction binoculars combining an uncooled thermal imaging channel, eyesafe laser rangefinder and a digital magnetic compass has also been chosen as a commander’s sight for FELIN. Though the FELIN may have been ordered in significant numbers, the soldier system that has already seen some action is Germany’s IdZ Basic System (BS) supplied by Cassidian of which 2500 sets have already been delivered to combatants in the field in Afghanistan. The IdZBS is designed to be a squad- level system and each kit consists of a Heckler & Koch G36 5.56mm rifle, a Thales C4I system known as NavICom, image intensifying helmet-mounted NVS also supplied by Thales, Nacre’s QuietPro digital tactical headset, an Oerlikon Contraves weaponmounted laser system together with eyeprotection glasses, a ballistic and stab protection vest and a load-carrying vest. The NavICom notably provides the soldier with continuously updated situation awareness via a digital moving map display system shows the soldier’s own position, the position of his comrades, the position of minefields and other danger zones, target course and coordinates and the enemy’s status. Digital voice and data wireless communications provide January 2012
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ergonomically present the same level of information as two 17-inch LCDs. Initial sets may be rolled out in the 2012-13 time frame. In any case F-INSAS will probably be the world’s largest soldier transformation programmes with a potential buy of
Device” which is basically a smartphone tagged into a US military Joint Tactical Radio System-compliant Radio. The new smartphone weighs a fifth of the total of the total electronic ensemble in typical kits and yet gives comparable performance over 3G networks. While at the same time the chances of information overload are cut down considerably. These smartphones also enable game console-like control of UAVs and their texting capability is something that new generations of troops would in any case be comfortable with. More such smartphone devices at all levels of the chain are being tried out by the US Army. The idea is to replicate the civilian success of tablet-like phones to bridge the digital divide on the battlefield in a manner that is far less cumbersome than what is being currently deployed. Developers around the world would do well to remain “wired in” to such trends.
ONE OF THE MORE MATURE SYSTEMS LIKE FRANCE'S FELIN HAS 155 COMPONENTS IN ALL more than 500000 sets, i.e to equip the Indian Army’s 465 infantry battalions. As such, it would do well to take cognizance of the lessons being held forth by the European buys. FELIN, for instance, is being issued piecemeal at the moment to allow for soldiers to get a feel of the systems. Soldata Futuro’s modularity approach may also be taken note of. FINSAS should not be driven by the usual “must have”, “good to have” paradigm that has delayed several indigenous programmes in the past. Lessons should also be learned from the long running US Nett Warrior programme which is basically the world’s oldest ‘future soldier’ effort. Nett Warrior, for instance, is only the latest avatar of the Ground Soldier System programme which itself was a result of the rebadging of the Land Warrior Advance Technology demonstration programme with the US Army’s larger Future Force Warrior programme which aims to use everything from nanotechnology to yoga in a bid to create a new breed of soldiers by the 2030s. At the moment, Nett Warrior is shedding the typical ‘future soldier’ ensemble of sensors, monocles, GPS devices and keypads for an “End User
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the soldier with commands and reconnaissance data. The system is also designed to give the soldier access to micro-unmanned air vehicles (UAVs). The navigation system is equipped with a global positioning system. Other countries in Europe are also developing future soldier systems such as Italy’s Soldata Futuro and Spain’s ComFurt kits. However the budgetary situation in both countries has meant that development programmes are now proceeding slower than usual. Nevertheless, the programmes do have some interesting standout features in terms of the work done on finding renewable energy solutions for powering the main electronic gear and on modularity. Spain’s ComFurt, for instance, has been exploring the possibility of using boot heel generators that generate electricity when the soldier walks, to power at least a part of the electronic equipment thereby taking some load of the litium-ion batteries embedded in the vest that typically power ‘future soldier’ kits. Indeed, energy management is one the biggest challenges that face the development of all soldier kits given their direct relation to endurance via both weight carried and powered availability. Soldata Futuro is built from the ground up to be an ‘ improve as you prove’ system which is constantly upgrading or modifying features as and when feedback from the field is processed. A case in point is the development of the kit’s new NC4-09 ballistic vest which was designed based on the inputs of soldiers in Afghanistan. In terms of modularity, the Soldato Futuro operates under a very different paradigm from the FELIN. DRDO’s F-INSAS or Futuristic Infantry Soldier As A System essentially has all the features that FELIN et al are demonstrating, including lightweight and modular ballistic protection, protective combat clothing with an NBC component, sensor and display integrated ballistic headgear, gun-mounted sights consisting of both television and laser rangefinding capability all tied to a powerful wearable computer. F-INSAS also aims to deliver a new modular weapon system not too dissimilar from PAPOP. In all, the stated aim is to reduce the standard soldier’s load by 50 per cent while turning the soldier into a ‘self-contained fighting unit.’ F-INSAS is also researching the latest health monitoring systems, smart shoes and seeks to develop a collimating eyepiece that can
READY FOR ACTION: An Italian soldier equipped with some of the latest gadgets
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`5,20,000 crore to be spent on defence in five years
PIB
UAVs for Naval Air Stations
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DEVELOPMENT OF military infrastructures and capabilities on the country’s western and eastern fronts and the purchase of a wide array of weapon systems for billions of dollars will require India to earmark a defence budget of a staggering `5,20,000 crore over the next ten years, it has been reported. This figure, however, does not include the huge day-to-day cost of maintaining 13-lakh armed forces. This figure has been arrived at by taking into account Defence Minister AK Antony’s revealed expenditure plans in the Parliament for the development of military infrastructure, with new fighter bases, helipads, bunkers, forward ammunition dumps and the like, to strategically counter the country’s two potential adversaries — China and Pakistan. Antony pegged the planned “development” of Army infrastructure and “improvement” of IAF infrastructure in the north-east at `7,374 crore and `1,753 crore, respectively. Similarly, capability development along the northern borders will cost `24,312 crore, while upgrade of storage facility for ammunition will come for `18,450 crore.
Indian-Russian joint exercise next year
INDIAN ARMY will have a war-game with the Russian Army in a joint exercise to be held in ‘Cheetah’ training range in East Russia, close to the Mongolia-China border, next year to increase inter-operability between the two armies. This will be the fourth round of INDRA series of Army-to-Army exercise between the two countries. The two sides have also decided to make INDRA series of joint Army exercises an annual affair, which will be held alternatively in India and Russia. So far, India and Russia have conducted three rounds of INDRA exercises. The first such exercise was carried out in 2005 in Rajasthan, followed by Prshkov in Russia. The third exercise was conducted in Chaubattia in Kumaon hills some time back. The exercise is aimed at increasing the inter-operability and mutual understanding between the two armies.
Development of Naval Academy
PIB
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AS PER its modernisation plans, the Indian Navy will soon have Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, probably early next year, at Naval Air Stations in Tamil Nadu. It has two naval air stations in the state — INS Rajali at Arakkonam and INS Parundu at Uchipuli. This measure, it is said, will go a long way in augmenting India’s coastal security. As it is, the Navy coordinates with the Coastal Security Group of Tamil Nadu Police and Indian Coast Guard in educating fishermen along the Tamil Nadu coast on the importance of International Maritime Boundary Line. THE GOVERNMENT has approved the second phase of the development works of Indian Naval Academy (INA), Ezhimala, which is estimated to cost nearly `140 crore, according to the Defence Minister AK Antony. With this, the academy will have a capacity to train nearly 1,200 people in one go. “Malabar region has a prominent place in the defence map of the country. The establishment of INA and Coast Guard Academy, which are coming up in Irinavu in the district, and the HAL unit in Kasargode has further strengthened the importance of the Malabar region,” said the Defence Minister while addressing a press meet organised by Kannur Press Club recently.
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Seven more radars for Gujarat
WHEN INDIA acquires, by the end of March this year, a nuclear submarine from Russia for its Navy, it will possess the “triad” capability to launch nuclear strikes from land, air and water. “INS Chakra”, the first-generation Russian Nerpa Akula-II class nuclear submarine, armed with 300-km-range Klub missiles, is to be berthed in the Bay of Bengal. The leased 8,100-tonne vessel is currently in the final user acceptance trial stage in northern Russia. India, of course, has its indigenous nuclear submarine INS Arihant, which will undergo sea trials planned over the next six months.
THE GOVERNMENT has given approval for setting up seven radar stations on Gujarat coast along with a Coast Guard station at Pipavav in the state, Defence Minister AK Antony has informed the Parliament. There has been approval also for setting up a Coast Guard station at Pipavav in Gujarat, Antony said in a written reply to a question in the Lok Sabha. Coast Guard stations at a particular place are set up after taking into account the threat perception, vulnerability gap analysis and presence of other stations in the vicinity. A Regional Headquarters (North West) at Gandhinagar has also been established in Gujarat to monitor coastal security.
TROY CLARKE @NAVY.MIL
Navy to get first N-sub by March
Poor planning causing crashes
THE HINDUSTAN Aeronautics Limited (HAL) has started manufacturing of Sukhoi-30 MKI fighters in the country. Contracts have been concluded with Indian Air Force (IAF) for supply of 140 8U-30 MIG aircraft by 2014-15, along with earlier order of 40 aircraft. Of the total 180 aircraft, 99 aircraft have been delivered till 201011. The government has asked HAL to speed up the manufacturing of Su-30 MKI fighters. As per the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) sanction dated 18/12/2000, the project was to commence from the year 2004-05 and be completed by 2017-18. However, in June 2005, Air Headquarters requested HAL, to explore the feasibility www.geopolitics.in
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HAL starts Sukhoi production
of compressing the delivery programme by three years. Accordingly, HAL submitted a Proposal, which envisaged compressed delivery of 140 aircraft within 2014-15. The steps taken by HAL for timely manufacturing of such fighters include: y Commissioning of more tooling and fixtures in manufacturing and assembly shops. y Increased outsourcing. y Development of alternate vendors. y Improvements in manufacturing processes & operations. y Effective monitoring and timely actions through Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP).
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IF INDIA’S first Indian astronaut Rakesh Sharma is to be believed, then faulty planning in defence public sector units is responsible for rising MiG crashes. Speaking at the annual confluence of Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, recently, he said that PSUs such as Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) and Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) were being run like political and bureaucratic fiefdoms, with the result that they had the infrastructure but no expertise. The solution, according to him, is in “public-private partnership (PPP) model with Indian companies in these sectors”. Giving his personal experience, Sharma said that as a test pilot with the HAL, he would send back fighter planes to the laboratories if he detected snags in their parts. But he soon found out that instead of doing research and development on these parts, the laboratories fitted the parts in another fighter plane. “The parts used to keep repeating the full circle consuming time and energy without any result,” he said. Lamenting that “the HAL does not even have an inhouse test-pilot team”, he said that there was a lack of transparency and accountability in PSUs. January 2012
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BrahMos has become a role model for its integration of public-private industries from India and Russia. It has emerged as the most potent weapon system for precision strike and a “force multiplier in network-centric warfare”. As a hightechnology defence product, it has great potential in the world market, writes SITAKANTA MISHRA
INDIA’S ROBUST GEO-TECHNOLOGY POWER
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HE SECOND BrahMos regiment equipped with advanced systems, mainly the Block-II version, has been delivered to the Indian Army on November 9, 2011. The first BrahMos Army regiment was made operational in 2008. The Defence Acquisition Council (DAC) has reportedly approved the deployment of Block III variants to enhance the Army’s firepower in the north-east following a similar nod for the western sector facing Pakistan. A product of the India-Russia joint venture, the supersonic cruise missiles have been serving the Indian armed forces as force multipliers, while bestowing India with the geo-technological leadership in the world. However, its techno-strategic implications are bound to reverberate in the both regional and global security spectrum in the decades ahead, with the evolving security scenario perceptibly shifting from geopolitics to geo-technology.
BRAHMOS
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Unshackling “Fifth-Nation Syndrome” In respect to technology — whether it be in nuclear weapons, satellites, super computers, cryogenics or any other system for that matter — India has always been a follower — third, fourth or fifth country — never been ‘the first’ in the world. “By giving the supersonic cruise missile which is the first of its kind in the world…the BrahMos team has successfully broken the fifth-nation syndrome,” says APJ Abdul Kalam. According to S Pillai, the CEO of BrahMos Aerospace, “The Indian Army is the only land force in the world to have a precision-attack supersonic cruise missile.” Considered one of the fastest-cruise missiles in the world, the BrahMos is a stealth supersonic cruise missile ventured jointly by India and Russia in February 1998. The name BrahMos is an acronym of the names of two rivers, the Brahmaputra of India and the Moskva of Russia. While Russia holds 49.5 per cent of the investment, India holds the remaining 50.5 per cent and the venture is constantly evolving. The company proposes to grow into a `1000-crore venture within the next five years. Another setup, the BrahMos Aerospace Thiruvananthapuram Ltd. (BATL), EXPLOSIVE POWER: The BrahMos is one of the most destructive missiles in its class
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PRIDE OF THE NATION: The BrahMos missile programme is one of India’s best joint venture success stories
has been integrated to the company. Headquartered in Hyderabad, BrahMos Aerospace reportedly handles anti-ship missile production, and in Nagpur, the missiles receive their warheads. A derivative of the Russian Yakhont, the BrahMos is a two-stage vehicle with solid propellant booster and a liquid ramjet system. It has a striking range of 290 km with supersonic speed at 2.8 Mach (four time faster than the American Tomahawk, three times the speed of the Harpoon or the Exocet), and can carry a 200-300 kg payload. While the propulsion system of the missile is Russian origin, its guidance and electronics packages are designed and developed in India. Distinctively, guided by the Inertial Navigation System, GPS and active/passive radar, the missile has precision of around six-metre Circular Error Probability (CEP) and is nine times more destructive than sub-sonic cruise missiles. According to the Defence Research Development Organiwww.geopolitics.in
sation (DRDO), the Russian-built Glonass receivers have been successfully used to enhance the aiming and target-acquisition accuracy. With the inertial-navigation system onboard with three gyroscopes and three accelerometers, the weapon is a “fire-and-forget” system requiring no further guidance from the control centre once the target is assigned and launched. Officially, its cruising altitude could be up to 15 km and terminal altitude is as low as 10 metres. The anti-jamming systems onboard can protect it from electronic countermeasures and enable it to distinguish the target from decoys. The missile is capable of mounting two types of warheads — (1) one that explodes on contact; (2) target penetration by impact and then explode a few milliseconds later. Once assembled, the missile has a 10-year shelf life, requiring a routine preventive maintenance check once every three years. Considering all these attributes, the BrahMos missile is rightly
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HEMANT RAWAT
claimed to be the ‘best ground beef out there’ in comparison to the Tomahawk that is the ‘best steak out there’. As a versatile system, the BrahMos can be launched from multiple platforms based on land, sea, sub-sea and air. The modular design of the missile and its capability of being launched at different orientations enable it to be integrated with a wide spectrum of platforms such aswarships, submarines, different types of aircraft, mobile autonomous launchers and silos. Out of the total 25 test flights of the missile so far, 24 tests have been successful. The test of Block-II version of the missile on January 20, 2009, failed to hit its target due to glitches in the homing device. While BrahMos Block-I version is an anti-ship missile, Block-II is an Army version meant for attacking targets on land. The latest Block-III is meant for operations in mountain warfare where the missile has to hit the target with a steep dive. January 2012
g COVERSTORY ‘Veritable Force Multiplier’ According to defence sources, the production target fixed by the agency is 1,000 missiles over the next ten years (current capacity is to produce 100 missiles a year) for Indian forces. Both the Indian Army and Navy have already inducted the BrahMos missiles. The Army has inducted the first battery of the land version in June 2007. According to Global Security Information, the Army had ordered two BrahMos regiments in the first phase at a cost of `8,352 crore, with 134 missiles in 200609, 10 road-mobile autonomous launchers on 12x12 Tatra vehicles and four mobile-command posts and another 240 land-attack Block-II versions in 2010. The first ships to be equipped with BrahMos were Project 61ME (Kashin-Mod class) destroyers. The anti-ship naval version has been integrated on the destroyer INS Rajput and will also be mounted on the three 7,000-tonne Kolkata-Class destroyers and the Talwar-Class. The Indian Navy also plans to deploy them on submarines and possibly on land-based patrol aircraft. The Navy had ordered 49 BrahMos firing units at a cost of `711 crore. The Indian Air Force will be equipped with the first operational models of the missile by 2012 by modifying the fifthgeneration fighters and Su-30MKI. This would prove to be a ‘force multiplier’ to the Air Force to engage all types of land/sea targets. It is quite likely that the 126 medium-multirole fighters for which India has announced contracts, will also be fitted with BrahMos missiles. The F/A18 Super Hornet, Rafale and Typhoon fighters can all serve as carriers.
y Used by: Indian Army, Indian Navy, Indian Air Force (awaiting) y Manufacturers: Joint venture between NPO Mashinostroeyenia (Russia) and DRDO (India) BrahMos Aerospace y Unit Cost: US$ 2.73 million (approx) y Weight: 2,5000 -3,000 kg; Length: 8.4 m; Diameter: 0.6 m y Range: 290 km; Speed: Mach 2.8 y Warhead: 200-300 kg, conventional /(nuclear) y Engine: Two-stage integrated Rocket/Ramjet y Launch Platform: Ship, submarine, aircraft and land-based mobile launchers
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WHY CRUISE MISSILES?
W
HY IS it that in this age of rapidly-growing ballistic missiles, cruise missiles continue to be relevant? The short answer is that most wars are fought with tactical weapons, not strategic weapons. Cruise missiles are tactical weapons and much cheaper than the strategic ballistic missiles. And importantly, while advanced nations are competing against one another in developing ballistic missile defence (BMD) systems, cruise missiles are designed to hug the ground, which makes them hard to detect by radar. They are launched from ships, submarines, airplanes, and from the ground. Besides, unlike the cruise missiles, ballistic missiles are more prone to inaccuracies as regards the targets. In fact, putting into operation of ballistic missiles is very complex with increasing accuracy, range, and defence penetration requirements. And finally, while ballistic missiles are essentially fitted with highrange nuclear weapons, cruise missiles can carry both nuclear and conventional warheads. The importance of cruise missiles in the recent wars has been clearly discernible. Their frequent use by the United States since the end of the Cold War has been noteworthy in this regard. The spectacular demonstration of the US TomaBeneficial Export Potential The BrahMos missile could become one of India’s major contributions to the world arms export market during the decades ahead. In fact, the agency plans to export up to 2000 of them to interested friendly countries, worth $10 bilion. More than 10 states have already evinced interest in purchasing this missile. Reportedly, Indonesia, the UAE, Brazil, Thailand, Chile and Malaysia have already submitted their orders. Other nations, from Algeria to Venezuela, South Africa, Egypt, Oman and Brunei find the versatility of BrahMos enticing. In February 2010, India was reportedly in “serious negotiations” with Chile, Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia regarding the purchase of the missile. Informal negotia-
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hawks during “Operation Desert Storm” in January 1991 highlighted the effectiveness of the cruise missiles. During the 2003 Iraq War, the US military employed cruise missiles over four times more than that in the 1991 war. The Iraq War also saw the first use of the UK-Frenchproduced “Storm Shadow” cruise missiles. In fact, since the Iraq War (Operation Iraqi Freedom), evolving opinion in the strategic literature has been that “Cruise missiles have reached their mature stage”. All this explains why cruise missiles have been in great demand and are used more frequently than any other weapon system. One estimate shows that as many as 130 types of cruise missiles exist today, with 75 countries possessing them. But, a US Congressional Research Service (CRS) estimate reveals that 81 countries have cruise missiles of some kind. It says that approximately 70000 cruise missiles are operational worldwide. seventy-five different types of systems are currently in service and over 40 additional cruise missiles are reportedly under development. However, existing literature only highlights the “tipping point” assumption, identifying their spread mainly to the developing countries while overlooking the vertical proliferation in the case of the developed countries. tions seem undergoing between India and Vietnam for the sale of the BrahMos. As a matter of its demand, according to experts, the missile is driving the sales of aircraft and submarines that carry it, which is normally the other way round in case of other missiles. For example, the Rubin Design Bureau is working on a special version of the new Russian Project 677 (Amur class) submarine that uses the anti-ship version of its main weapon. With more than one decade of successful partnerships over the missile project, the BrahMos joint venture has become a vehicle for future India-Russia defence projects. Towards Hypersonic Avatar With a view to staying in the forefront of January 2012
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REACHING THE THIRD DIMENSION BrahMos, the only supersonic cruise missile of the world, has enhanced India’s strike capability. Represented below are Dr Sivathanu Pillai views on BrahMaos and a variety of issues across the spectrum * On the genesis of the BrahMos Project The very will to develop a world-class weapon system by pooling in scientific know-how and technological resources from both countries (India and Russia) was the basis of the foundation of the JV. It is the fusion of great scientific minds of two countries that help design and develop such a weapon system with unparalleled capabilities. On the Indian Air Force version The very essence of carrying a weapon system on board an aircraft is to possess the capability of engaging targets from a stand-off distance. Air-launched BrahMos provides these capabilities to our Air Force with distinct superiority in terms of
stand-off distance, range, accuracy and lethality vis-a-vis the Air Force of other countries. With the rare combination of the refueling capability and stand-off range of BrahMos, the IAF can now engage many targets. We have reduced the weight to 2.5 tons for installation on aircraft, while the landlaunched version weighs 3 tons. Even this is heavy. When considering this missile for use on a Sukhoi fighter, we are thinking of a lower weight. Besides, the shorter a missile, the better it is. The air-launched BrahMos needs to have reduced booster propulsion, to take advantage of the initial speed of the aircraft. On technological edge of the BrahMos BrahMos has no parallel in the world in terms of combination of speed, range, lethality and survivability. Moreover, through regular capability upgradation by way of use of new high-end technologies, BrahMos is bound to maintain the superiority. The Indian Army is the only land force in the world to have such an advanced weapon system.
HC TIWARI
On engine and guidance system At first, we thought we would go for a solid propellant ramjet to propel the missile to its supersonic speed. But solid ramjet has limits in the Mach number that can be attained, whereas a kerosene-based ramjet can reach up to Mach 7. We have our own functional navigation systems, along with excellent experience in onboard computers through the Indian Prithvi and Agni ballistic missile programmes. Fortunately, our friends at NPO Machinostroyenia were working with us as consultants. On the role of private sector in BrahMos www.geopolitics.in
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BrahMos for the first time, with government approval, established a consortium of public-private industries, which took part in development, proving and finally in bulk production. The major private companies took keen interest in participating in production activities, even though they had to establish production infrastructure along with the test facilities at their own cost in their respective premises. The industries also were very fast to absorb new technologies that were required for fabrication of certain critical items. Private sector companies contributed to a great extent in the success of this JV. The manufacturing of BrahMos in large numbers will grow Indian industry and economy, ultimately increasing self-reliance. On the role of the BATL BATL (BrahMos Aerospace Thiruvananthapuram Ltd.) was established as a leading aerospace industry and a role model for Kerala. It is expected to grow in the coming years. BATL is primarily for supporting various projects of BrahMos, Defence Research Development Organisation and Indian Space Research Organisation. In addition, we will be supporting Bhabha Atomic Research Center for the robotic system and Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. (HAL) for engines. The Phase-II expansion will begin after we get additional land and the Phase-III thereafter. The first fully-integrated BrahMos missile is expected to roll out from BATL by 2012. On retrofit of BrahMos on submarines The missile is already ready and the Amur design with vertically-launched BrahMos missile has been designed jointly with Russian Institutes. We are also looking at Air Independent Propulsion for Amur to make it more versatile, so that Amur will be a class superior in performance compared to the diesel submarines, which can fire only tube-launched missiles or torpedoes. I am certain that given the speed with which we work, Amur can be built faster with BrahMos integrated. We are hoping to get a decision soon. * Dr Pillai’s reactions are based on published interviews in the media.
January 2012
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FORCE MULTIPLIER: With multi-platform, multi-mission and multi-target capabilities, the BrahMos can be used across a variety of scenarios
missile technology the BrahMos Aerospace has unveiled a plan for developing hypersonic version (BrahMos-II) of the missile. The project, centred round the scramjet engine technology, has kickstarted with a team of defence scientists at the Hyderabad-based Defence Research and Development Laboratory (DRDL), a constituent of the DRDO. Looking beyond the basic version in operation with a speed of Mach 2.8, the hypersonic version will have a velocity of up to Mach 7. The scramjet technology, in which the DRDL has a good degree of expertise, will be used in the hypersonic version with kerosene as a fuel to attain stability and storage safety. According to Dr Pillai, the focus of the hypersonic programme would be on zeroing in on the optimum technological elements for realising on operationally viable scramjet system, which could ultimately be accelerated to attain Mach 7 velocity. This version will carry a conventional weapons payload weighing around 200 kg. To withstand high temperature and pressure during the trans-atmospheric flight, high performance materials will be used. Overall, the destructive capability www.geopolitics.in
would be reinforced by the large kinetic energy of the impact, much more than that of the supersonic versions. The entire process would take around five years from now and support from Russia is crucial. Diversified Production Line While the entire project is a joint venture between the DRDO of India and the NPO Mashinostroyenia of Russia, many private agencies are integrally involved in the production of specific software and hardware components of the missile. Around sixteen companies in India are involved in the production of specif-
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ic hardware and systems. While Godrej Aerospace produces the airframe, wings, as well as the pneumatic and hydraulic systems, Larsen and Toubro (L&T) makes the composites and Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) makes the inertial navigation system and missile checkout system. BrahMos Aerospace has also set up a second assembly line at its newly-created facility in India. On November 8, 2011, the company also opened a centre of excellence for developing hypersonic aerodynamic vehicles and engines at the Indian Institute of Science (IISc) in Bengaluru.
Advantage BrahMos ¾ World leader for supersonic cruise missile ¾ Multi-platform, multi-mission, multi-target capability ¾ Most cost-effective weapon complex ¾ Ultimate force multiplier for armed forces ¾ First joint venture between India and foreign partners to design,
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develop, produce and market advanced defence systems ¾ First joint venture with equity share ratio of 50.5 per cent (India) and 49.5 per cent (Russia) between government funded private sectors ¾ First joint venture to integrate public-private industries ¾ Role model for future joint ventures
January 2012
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BRAHMOS
COVERSTORY
TECHNOLOGY DISSEMINATOR: The decision to export BrahMos to friendly countries, especially in East Asia, could generate critical reactions from China
Technical and Strategic Implications Without violating the norms of Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) the BrahMos missile has established itself as a unique and unparalleled weapon system whose competitor is yet to be born. After a decade of journey by now, the joint venture has become a role model for future India-Russia joint ventures. However, the technical sophistication and operationalisation of BrahMos are bound to have technical and strategic implications both at the regional and at the global strategic discourse. First, the venture is a precursor to www.geopolitics.in
India’s evolving geo-technological power with the aim to exploit the nexus of technology, sustainability and economic vitality. In fact, the competition to capture the leading sectors of innovation determines winners and losers. In that context, the BrahMos venture is a leader not only in the field of invention, but also provides scope to agencies to innovate, design, build and sell high-tech goods and services to rest of the world. Second, if the plan to export the missile to friendly countries in the neighbourhood materialises, it would leverage India’s strategic objectives, particularly in
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East Asia where China has sufficient strategic inroads. While striving to achieve leadership in technology innovation, India must avail all opportunities to make others look towards it in terms of security insurance. Thirdly, the deployment of BrahMos regiments in strategic areas will strengthen India’s strategic manoeuvrability. Endowed with shorter flight time, supersonic speed and stealth features, they are ‘weapons of quick reaction’ and will give “extreme surgical strike capability” to Indian defence forces with chances of less escalation. Fourthly, its implications for India’s nuclear deterrence strategy are enormous as the missile is highly mobile and better hidden, therefore more survivable than the ballistic missiles. Particularly the Block-III version of the missile can be deployed at ease using mountain roads, certainly appropriate for mountain warfare. It is also opined that its high mobility helps in pre-locating them at the edge of the Indian land mass to cover areas that the Agni series presumably does not. However, the question is whether India is on its way towards an intended posture of “defensive deterrence”. Fifthly, and most importantly, a robust propagation of the BrahMos missile, both in Indian defence forces and in the neighbourhood can certainly generate reactions from the neighbouring countries especially from China and Pakistan. One can imagine how China values cruise missiles in its overall defence preparedness from the number of cruise missile tests it has conducted. (From 2004 to 2009, Beijing has conducted cruise missile tests 32 times, particularly the DH-10 series.) On the other hand, Pakistan is actively sophisticating its Babur (Hatf-7) cruise missile. In addition, the Sino-Pak nuclear/missile nexus targeting India is well known. The decision to export BrahMos to friendly countries, especially in East Asia, would generate critical reactions from China and may lead to strategic chain reactions in the region. However, the genie is out of the bottle and this versatile cruise missile is here to stay, reinforcing India’s strategic advantages. (The writer is a Research Fellow at the Centre for Air Power Studies, New Delhi. He has recently authored a book, cruise missiles: evolution, proliferation and future) January 2012
geopolitics
INTERNAL SECURITY
ARDUOUS PEAKS ITBP
Indo Tibetan Border Police DG Ranjit Sinha on the challenge of guarding India’s borders with China
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B R I E F S
MHA: The year in review
Gelatin trouble!
What have been the achievements of the Union Home Ministry? With ¤P Chidambaram completing three years
The mines may still be in Odisha because of
good use. Recently, Odisha police recovered a huge cache of explosives including gelatin sticks manufactured by the private sector from Khalguda area bordering neighbouring Andhra Pradesh. The cops are wondering how the explosives reach the Maoist hand. How is it that explosives meant for industries are being smuggled to the extremists in the state? It is believed that unused explosives sourced by the industries reach the hands of Naxals either through pilferage or through intimidation.
Delhi is Lashkar hub According to ¤the country’s
Here they are: Significant decline in violence and infiltration in Jammu and Kashmir and North-Eastern states. No major communal conflagration during last three years. Significant capacity building of police across the country. The National Investigation Agency would get permission for another 400 posts.
Unresolved issues: Cross-border terror camps in Pakistan. Better ground-level intelligence gathering in Naxal-affected areas. On the top of the Home Ministry’s pending matters was the NCTC (National Counter Terrorism Centre), an idea floated by the Home Minister in 2009.
Israeli arms invade N-E rebel arsenal Israelis had arrived long back to take a leading ¤soonThe position in the Indian arms bazar, but they may take pole position in the illicit bazar if
TROUBLE, EVEN INDIA’S COMMERCIAL CAPITAL ARE BEING EYED BY THE MAOISTS WHO HAVE FORMED A ‘GOLDEN CORRIDOR COMMITTEE’ TO ENHANCE OPERATIONAL; CAPABILITY AND CAPACITY IN INDUSTRIAL AREAS OF GUJARAT AND MAHARASHTRA. THERE ARE ALSO PLANS TO MOVE INTO NAGPUR, WARDHA, BHANDARA AND YAVATMAL DISTRICTS OF MAHARASHTRA. THEY ARE ALREADY A POTENT FORCE IN GADCHIROLI, GONDIA AND CHANDRAPUR DISTRICTS OF THE STATE. ALL THREE ARE PREDOMINANTLY TRIBAL DISTRICTS. THE HOME MINISTRY REVEALED THIS INFORMATION IN RESPONSE TO A PARLIAMENT QUESTION.
arms recovered from North-East rebels are anything to go by. Chinese small arms now face stiff competition from superior Israeli weapons with raids producing Uzi submachine guns apart from the Chinese variant of the AK-47 and AK-56 assault rifles. In percentage terms, the Israeli catch is small, but officials believe that these are slowly trickling in from Myanmar and Bangladesh.
Mujahideens targeting tourist areas
¤
Tourists beware, the Mujahaideens are looking! This was the finding after the recent busting of an Indian Mujahideen cell in Delhi. The idea is to make it a completely tourism unsafe country. The German Bakery in Pune and the blast outside Delhi’s Jama Masjid were both arrows in that direction. Pakistani Jaish-e-Mohammed militant Mohammed Adil, alias Ajmal, told police during interrogation that among the areas surveyed by him were high-value tourist zones like Dilli Haat and the Paharganj area, which are frequented by budget tourists.
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PANORAMIO.COM
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as Union Home Minister, the ministry put out its annual list of achievements under his leadership
WIKIMEDIA.ORG
premier terrorism, related investigator—the National Investigation Agency (NIA), Delhi is the hub of all Lashkar operations in the country. Its latest is a well-oiled and complexlynetworked financial machine that brings in obver `100 crore by hawala for distribution across the nation to families of terrorists killed in the country. In other words: a sort of terrorist benevolence fund underwritten by the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) as well as Hizbul Mujahideen (HM). The NIA has registered two police reports in this connection outlining how part of the hawala goes for seperatists in Kashmir and the rest to the terrorists families.
Target: Commercial hubs IT IS NOT JUST THE ¤RAJDHANIS THAT ARE IN
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¤politics but the explosives are sure being put to
3.BP.BLOGSPOT.COM
IS
INTERNAL SECURITY
January 2012
g There have been zero deaths because of law and order fracases in J&K this year. And the credit can largely go to the innovative new material at the disposal of the state police. By using non-lethal equipment’s and versatile body protectors the cops have produced a zerodeath graph of civilians and security personnel. The number of injuries during law and order disturbances has also dramatically gone down. The new equipments include Blast Dispersal Cartridges (BDC), vehicle mounted tear-smoke devices and Stunlac grenades. Other items include body protectors, polycarbonate shields, polycarbonate lathis, helmets and visors, bullet-proof bunkers, pump action guns, water cannons, anti-riot rifles, rubber pellets and plastic pellets.
Union Home Minister P Chidambaram recently inaugurated a regional hub of the elite anti-terror National Security Guard (NSG) which now has a new hub at Hyderabad. The hub has come up at a cost of `37.96 crore on 22 acres of land at Tirmulghery in Secunderabad and was inaugurated in December by Home Minister P Chidambaram. Chidambaram said on the occasion that the NSG was being provided modern weapons and the world-class training to thwart terrorist attacks and hijacking of airplanes. He said that NSG commandoes would be sent to visit their counterparts in Russia and France to update themselves on training methods and equipment. He said that the decision to set up the regional NSG hub was post-26/11 with the sole aim to reduce response time and reach the area of operation as quickly as possible.
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tral Reserve Police Force) — has taken it to heart. The CRPF has created six new institutions to improve both its intelligence-gathering and operational skills. These include: Indian Institute of IED Management in Pune (Maharashtra), dogs breeding and training centre in Taralu (Karnataka), intelligence school in Kadarpur (Haryana), RAF training school and training of trainer’s school in Meerut (Uttar Pradesh) and college of insurgency and jungle craft in Belgaum (Karnataka).
Maharashtra goes digital ¤
Maharashtra’s home department is going digital! All the 1,039 police stations will be part of the Crime and Criminal Tracking Networking Service (CCTNS). In fact, Maharashtra could be the first state in the country to implement the CCTNS. What this will do is help police stations track information about any criminal registered in any part of the state. 60,000 policemen and women have been trained across the state to implement the CCTNS. The project is expected to commence in March 2012. The initiative has been launched under the e-governance project of MHA and National Crime Records Bureau. The project will connect 14,000 police stations and 6,000 administrative offices in the country.
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NSG centre in Hyderabad ¤
INTERNAL SECURITY
CRPF goes to school; creates six new centres for ops skills Refreshing your skills is the essence of ¤largest preparedness and the country’s paramilitary force — CRPF (Cen-
Terror money for stocks ¤
“Suspicious transactions linked to terrorist financing were received from intermediaries of stock market such as brokers, asset management companies etc since 2009-10 and disseminated to intelligence agencies by FIU.” The FIU in this case is the Financial Intelligence Unit and the information was given to Parliameny by Minister of State for Finance Namo Narain Meena. The developments are worrying because stock markets are governed by tough regulatory mechanism that makes it mandatory to know your customer. How the ultra escaped the microscope of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) to keep away dirty money from the exchanges is also under study.
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Dealing with mobs in J&K ¤
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Rajdhanis get security cover in Red zones Innovation is the mother of all ¤inventions. In the
case of the Indian Railways it is a goods train front of all super fast Rajdhani Express that connects the country’s capital with the major metros. The unique antidote is out of fear of Maoists disrupting their operations or derailing trains in Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal. That apart, the railways are also running security trains on a regular basis to survey tracks. Last year, East Central Railway (that bears the brunt of the Maoists insurgency) had 18 attacks. The major one included the derailment of 10 coaches of a Rajdhani Express, between Gaya and Mughalsarai in Bihar. Eight Rajdhanis pass through this zone each day.
January 2012
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GEOPOLITICS
INTERVIEW
“THE ITBP HAS THE MOST
CHALLENGING ASSIGNMENT…” With massive restructuring and training centres in the offing, the Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) is in the midst of a major transformation. ROHIT SRIVASTAVA spoke to the recently-appointed Director-General, RANJIT SINHA, under whose watch the force is undergoing the makeover.
ITBP
How challenging is this new assignment? RS: Before this, I have had a stint as Additional Director General (ADG) for two years with the ITBP. So, I am aware of the problems and challenges that the ITBP faces. In fact, among all central armed police forces (CAPFs), the ITBP has the most challenging assignment as far as terrain is concerned: more than 60 per cent of our border out post (BOP) are at altitude above 12,000 feet and some of them remain cut off from supply for as long as six months of the year. This is a tribute to the resilience and strength of the ITBP personnel in spite of such odds at duty to the satisfaction of all concerned. Recently, we have been tasked to perform Naxal operations in Chhattisgarh for which five battalions of ITBP have been deployed. During my earlier tenure, we were not involved in anti-Naxal operations (ANO) and the ITBP was basically engaged in border-guarding duties, according to the charter made for the force. However, in view of the severity of the Naxal problem, Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) has deployed ITBP for these operations along with CRPF and BSF. In addition, one of the most important duties is to provide security to the Indian mission at various locations in Afghanistan, which are under severe security threats. In fact, during the bomb attack on the Indian embassy in 2008, two of our personnel died along with others. In the last few years, the force has undergone many changes. The number of battalions has increased www.geopolitics.in
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January 2012
g INTERVIEW
The Chinese border is one of the most sensitive frontiers. How well-equipped is your force to handle the current security challenges? RS: There is no such thing as tension at the border. As it is a long-standing border dispute with China, all efforts are being made to settle the dispute amicably. As far as our deployment in the North-East is concerned, we have been engaged in border-guarding duties for long. They (the ITBP) have been working in close coordination with Assam Rifles and the Army. Proper coordination is being maintained to perform the task assigned. We have the latest arms and ammunition and we are in the process of evaluating more varieties. Under the modernisation programme, we have procured the state-ofthe-art equipment, which will make our men more effective and self-reliant and integrate them with higher formations. Some of the latest equipment that we have procured are hand grenade simulators, handheld monitoring receivers, digital satellite protocol telephony (DSPT). These enhance our capability manifold. As far as training is concerned, we have devised our training programmes and selected the training areas as per our peculiar area of operation. Apart from regular tactical training, fieldcraft and other related fields, we lay a lot of emphasis on training of our personnel in the field of mountaineering, rock climbing, ice craft, skiing, mountain warfare, jungle warfare and other specialist skills necessary to operate at high altitudes, extremely cold mountainous terrain and forests. ITBP is going through major restructuring at present. How well is the process going? What challenges are you facing? RS: The process is going well. The main challenges are acquisition of land, timely construction of infrastructure, recruitment and training. The state governments www.geopolitics.in
have been quite forthcoming in giving land for the training institutes. In most states where state government land is not available; land is being acquired from local people with the assistance of the state government. The setting-up of a training institute improves the local economy. Your force operates in one of the harshest geographical regions of the world. Health management is a major challenge for your force. What steps have been taken in this regard? RS: Each border battalion of ITBP has a team of five doctors with a wellequipped hospital. ITBP has established a high-altitude medical training centre in Leh. It will train our doctors and medics for high-altitude related medical conditions. All section-level posts have welltrained medics. We have a good network of composite hospitals in our area of operations. The ITBP in Delhi provides excellent medical care. Recently, a 200-bed referral hospital was inaugurated by the Home Minister in Greater Noida. This ITBP hospital will provide super speciality medical care to personnel of CAPFs. We have equipped all our forward posts with oxygen concentrators, haematology analysers, HAPO (High Altitude Pulmonary Oedema) bags, and portable lightweight oxygen cylinders so that basic emergency medical care can be provided at forward postS till the arrival of specialist medical care. The operational responsibility of ITBP has changed in the last few years. How do you see these challenges? Should ITBP get into other areas of policing risking its core competence? RS: Ours is primarily a border-guarding force and it will remain so. The government has given us some specific responsibilities keeping in view our competency and specialisation. Most of these assignments are highly prestigious and require a high level of professional skill training and discipline. Most ITBP jawans are exposed to high
ITBP
substantially with a corresponding increase in number of supervisory ranks. In view of the varied work assigned to us, the ITBP ensures that the cadre of the force is properly trained. We have set up special training institutes such as mountain-driving school, high-altitude motor training institute, counter-insurgency and jungle-warfare school, etc. In addition, our officers and men undergo inservice training regularly. We also send our personnel to select Army institutes to hone operational skills.
ON THE LOOKOUT: Starting out as a specialised border guarding force, the ITBP is now also involved in anti-Naxal operations
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January 2012
g INTERVIEW
GUARDING THE HIMALAYAS: The ITBP has extensive training and experience in guarding the mountainous borders of the country
altitudes, extremely low temperatures and mountainous terrains. Staying for a longer duration at these heights poses the risk of physical and mental problems. To neutralise the adverse effects of a prolonged stay at high altitudes, subzero temperatures and mountainous terrain, it becomes necessary to move our jawans to the plains. The other assignments being performed by our jawans in the plains not only provides a much-needed period of rest and recuperation but also give our jawans a variety of professional operational experiences.
establishing other specialised centres for jungle warfare, mountain-driving school and weapons-training school.
The operations against Left-wing extremists require subordinate officers like SubInspectors and Inspectors to take on leadership roles. How well- equipped are the officers for these challenges? RS: Before induction in the ANO operations, our men undergo pre-induction training at institutes and to make them fully aware of the local terrain, demography and practical problems. In addition, the intermediate officers and senior officers always accompany patrol parties and lead them in operations.
Some experts believe that due to a single -mountaineering school, ITBP has not been able to keep up to its standards. Do you agree? Do you see scope for improvement? RS: It is not that we run mountaineering courses only at the mountaineering school at Auli. The ITBP Academy (Mussourie), Counter Insurgency and Jungle Warfare (CIJW) School (Mahidanda) and all the battalions situated in the border areas run mountaineering courses. All battalions have their own mountaineering teams and each year they scale one peak in their area of responsibility. We organise unit-level, sector-level and frontier-level mountaineering competitions. We have established artificial climbing walls in our training institutions situated in the plains. Mountaineering and rock climbing are
Which are the new institutions coming up for your force? RS: We are coming up with three recruit training centres at Karera in Madhya Pradesh, Sivganga in Tamil Nadu and Kimin in Arunachal Pradesh. We are also www.geopolitics.in
Anti-LWE and Counter-Insurgency (CI) operations have forced CAPFs to change their training manuals. What are the new things that have been incorporated in the ITBP training? RS: A new standard operating procedure (SOP) has been made for ITBP personnel deployed in these areas. Case studies and training modules have been modified, which have become an integral part of the training programmes.
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part of the basic training of each rank. Till now we have climbed more than 187 national and international peaks. Our team is going to ski down Mt Everest during our Golden Jubilee Year in 2012. The Army is trying for the operational control of ITBP. How do you see this? RS: The matter is under consideration with Government of India and no final decision has been taken. ITBP is the lead intelligence agency on the Indo-China border. Your force is raising an intelligence branch. How much has been achieved in this regard? How do you see this new responsibility? RS: Intelligence has always been a part of our basic structure. Now we are restructuring and strengthening it. We have made good progress on this front and it is yielding excellent results. Tell us about the Sikkim-relief operation. RS: We were the first ones to respond after the earthquake, in spite of the fact that there was damage to ITBP assets. ITBP personnel braved the inclement weather and commenced relief and rescue mission immediately after the earthquake. About 500 people were brought to our camps and provided with necessary medical and other aid. Hundred blankets and 200 tents were distributed. Rescue and relief work has been well appreciated by the Prime Minister and Home Minister. January 2012
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THE BATTLE AHEAD After the death of Maoist leader Kishenji, fears are that the group will retaliate strongly. But these fears may prove unfounded as the Maoists are now suffering from a crisis of leadership, writes UDDIPAN MUKHERJEE STRATEGIC LOSS: The death of Maoist leader Kishenji has broken the back of the Left-wing extremist movement PLATYPUS1917.ORG
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January 2012
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Who was Kishenji? By all means, he meant Kishenji instead of Kishan-da. Mallojula Koteswara Rao, alias Kishenji alias Prahlad alias many more, was a top-rung policy-makercum-military leader of the ultra-left rebels. He was media-savvy. His popularity could be gauged when one finds an obituary-cum-analysis of this rebel leader in Foreign Policy, the US political magazine which hardly takes cognizance of India’s internal matters. At 56 years of age, he was a senior Politburo member and part of Central Military Commission of the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-M). He was reportedly killed in a mammoth operation by Indian security forces in the Jangalmahal area in West Bengal on November 24, 2011. The operation, which hemmed in Kishenji, was planned in concentric circles. A group of 1000 joint forces (paramilitary and state police combined) encircled Kishenji and his aide Suchitra in three circles. This made it almost impossible for the elusive leader to evade the clutches of the security forces. Kishenji was a major decision-maker for the Maoists and was looking after the expansion of the group in the NorthEast. Presumably, he came from Assam a couple of days before his death and was www.geopolitics.in
convening meetings on the West BengalJharkhand border. Fake or Real Encounter After his targeted killing, allegations of a fake encounter were levelled from many quarters, some expected and one quite astonishing. Maoist ideologue and Telugu poet Varavara Rao, the family members of Kishenji and the human rights activists raised the banner of protest by alleging a fake encounter. Quite stunningly, Communist Party of India (CPI) MP Gurudas Dasgupta was obdurate enough to call up Union Home Minister in this regard. A similar hue and cry had taken place in July 2010 at the time of CPI-M spokesperson Azad’s targeted killing. Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) Director-General K Vijay Kumar was visibly angry with such malice being heaped on the paramilitary forces. Interestingly, the autopsy report confirmed Vijay Kumar’s assertion. According to it, bullets hit Kishenji in the chin, chest and head. One bullet was fired from a distance of around 500 metres. A team of forensic experts also found some gunpowder in his hand. However, from the policy perspective of targeted killings as a veritable component of counter-insurgency operations, whether the Kishenji encounter was staged or real, is probably insignificant. Nevertheless, the following reasons may be elucidated to have brought about his undoing. First, he was recovering from an injury suffered last year from an attack by the security forces at Jangalmahal. Hence, his physical fitness was under the scanner. Second, the penetrative intelligence network of the police (across states) was tracing him and the moment he came out of his hideout, he became vulnerable. In fact, after the close shave last year, he had cocooned himself. Third, he was technology-savvy and that could have helped the police track his position. He used to scan newspapers on the internet. Fourth, the proximity of the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-M) with the Trinamool Congress (TC) before the assembly polls in West Bengal could MOMENTOUS FEAT: The encounter of Kishenji, who had eluded security forces for years, was a major accomplishment for the CRPF
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HEMANT RAWAT
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QUEEZED BETWEEN Palamau in the north and Gumla in the south, Latehar district in the eastern Indian state of Jharkhand is strategically located. Carved out of the old Palamau district, Latehar was created on April 4, 2001. Nearly half of its area is under dense forests. Furthermore, it abuts Chhattisgarh to the west and is hence a fertile region for the Maoist infiltrators. Latehar’s hilly terrain makes it a perfect destination for a Maoist stronghold. It was no wonder that within 24 hours, the Maoists claimed, with considerable equanimity, the responsibility of ambushing the convoy of independent Member of Parliament (MP) Inder Singh Namdhari at Latehar on December 3, 2011. Though such attacks were highly expected, still a validation came from Sudhir, the Maoist spokesperson for the local committee. He said: “We own the responsibility for the attack on the police party to avenge the killing of our leader Kishan Da.”
January 2012
g have worked to the disadvantage of the former. The cadres of TC can now very well act as moles against the Maoists. In fact, there are reports that Kishenji might have been betrayed by his own rank and file. One tale that is doing the rounds is that Bikash, a close confidant of Kishenji, had ultimately betrayed him. The `19lakh (US $40,000) reward announced on the head of the top Maoist is likely to be given to the person who provided the vital tip-off about his whereabouts in the last few hours leading to his elimination. Sify.com quoted official sources that the Andhra Pradesh government had announced a `12-lakh reward to anyone who would give any information about Kishenji. The Chhattisgarh government too, had announced a `7-lakh reward with a similar statement. Bikash had supposedly developed differences with Kishenji. The former was expected to be the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-M) West Bengal State Secretary after the incarceration of Kanchan alias Sudip Chongdar in December 2010. But, Bikash was replaced by another leader Asim Mondal alias Akash. Incidentally, it has been alleged by the Maoist rank and file that almost all major decisions in the eastern zone were unilaterally taken by Kishenji. Even Kanchan, after his capture by the Special Task Force in 2010, hinted the same and a possible disintegration of the Maoist command structure in West Bengal. The dramatic surrender of squad leader Jagari Baske and her husband Rajaram Soren at the Writers’ Buildings in Kolkata is a further testimony to this fact. What Next? Kishenji’s demise would be a big jolt to the rebels. It would be hard to find a replacement soon as he had become almost indispensable in the eastern region. However, there is no reason to expect a sudden spate of sporadic reprisals from the Maoists. Neither can the annihilation of Kishenji be seen as the demise of the insurrection. Their General-Secretary, Ganapathy, is still at large. However, what could be expected in the near future? First, the Maoists would re-group and Ganapathy must be extremely cautious now. They lost Azad in 2010 and now Kishenji. Senior leaders Narayan Sanyal and Kobad Ghandy are languishing in www.geopolitics.in
ITBP
INTERNALSECURITY
EFFECTIVE TACTICS: Kishenji's elimination signified that, at last, the counterinsurgency/counter-terrorism policy seems to work vis-a-vis the Maoists
jail. Telugu Deepak and Kanchan are also incarcerated. Hence, Ganapthy now has to work with second-rung leaders. As Snigdhendu Bhattacharya aptly
TRIBAL MILITIAS ARE EXTREMELY SIGNIFICANT FOR ACQUIRING KNOWLEDGE OF THE LOCAL TERRAIN
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points out in the daily Hindustan Times: “The blow will be more for their eastern regional bureau of which Kishenji was the spokesperson and the top-most leader. His boss in the eastern bureau Saheb-da, alias Jhantu Mukherjee, was arrested a few months back.” Second, by the very principle of guerrilla warfare tactics, the rebels would retaliate; albeit in a different venue, different time and different occasion. That is exactly what happened at Latehar on December 3, 2011, when the landmine planted by the ultras exploded. Ten security personnel and an eight-year-old boy succumbed to the injuries. Namdhari, a former Speaker of the Jharkhand Assembly, escaped unhurt. January 2012
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Tactical Change by Maoists? What does this attack signify? Does this indicate any change in operational tactics or an overall change of the strategic game plan on the part of the Maoists? Are the Maoists too following the policy of targeted killings as adopted by the Indian counter-insurgency forces? Keeping in mind the previous attacks of the Maoists, it is not unlikely that the December 3 ambush was an attempted targeted killing. The Naxalites had attacked the convoy of the then Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh, Chandrababu Naidu. Nevertheless, the noteworthy point is the landmine attack executed in October 2003 which was in the pre-merger era. From 2004 onwards, after the Communist Party of IndiaMaoist (CPI-M) formed after unification www.geopolitics.in
of the erstwhile People’s War Group (PWG) and Maoist Communist Centre (MCC), such incidents have become rare. A notable exception, however, was the assassination bid on former Chief Minister of West Bengal, Buddhadeb
THERE ARE REPORTS THAT KISHENJI MIGHT HAVE BEEN BETRAYED BY HIS OWN RANK AND FILE
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Bhattacharjee in November 2008. Since 2004, the Maoists have basically been following guerrilla operations targeting the administration as a whole. Their primary motive is to acquire arms and ammunition and demoralise the security forces. Personal vendetta, apparently, is not in their agenda. Such a hypothesis was corroborated by Sudhir. He said that the attack on Namdhari was simply unintentional as they had no information about him in that police convoy. Their primary targets were the security personnel. So, going by the apparent veracity of the Maoists’ statement, it may be safely surmised that the present mode of punitive action that they have embarked upon is ‘deterrence’. They are targeting the security and infrastructural architecture of the Indian State. A mass attack on a police or paramilitary convoy would likely, according to the Maoists, deter the security personnel to plan a targeted killing or assassination of any Maoist leader. Interestingly, the Maoists’ method of deterrence sometimes works. After the hijack of a passenger train on April 22, 2009, as noted by Deepak Nayak of the New Delhi-based Institute for Conflict Management, the Railway Protection Force (RPF) contingent, which arrived at the Latehar Railway Station to sanitise the railway route, was unwilling to move to the location of the hijacked passenger train. An unidentified RPF trooper, as per Nayak, had stated: “There is no use entering the train-hijack zone…it is risky given that the Maoists target people like us who are in uniform.” The report further informed that police officers, including the Superintendent of Police, preferred to work from their residences, fearing Maoist attacks. The above was no isolated phenomena. In a gripping report authored by journalist VK Shashikumar for a leading security journal; the following plight of police personnel emerges: “What will I do if I leave the police force? How will I earn? My family wants me to quit police service. But when I am jobless and unable to provide for my family, will they treat me well?” asked Rajendra Prasad, subinspector of Kajra Police Station. This police post is hardly 15 kilometres from the spot where four policemen were kidnapped after a skirmish with the Maoists on August 29, 2010, in which seven policemen were killed and 10 injured. January 2012
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CALCULATED APPROACH: India has kept the option of talking to the Maoists open but is moving to a position of strength first
The Battle Ahead Kishenji’s elimination signified that, at last, the CI/CT (counter-insurgency/ counter-terrorism) policy of the Indian security forces seems to work fine vis-avis the Maoists. The recent success of the forces in the Saranda forests in Jharkhand coupled with the annihilation of Cherukuri Rajkumar alias Azad and now Kishenji speaks of the Indian CI/CT policy as toeing the line of Winning Hearts and Minds (WHAM)-based counterinsurgency policy plus Targeted Killings and Incarcerations or TK/TI approach. The latter suitably bolsters the WHAMbased CI/CT. At the other end, the Indian State has kept the options of ‘talking to the Maoists’ an open agenda and is quite rightly moving to a position of strength before they ‘talk’ to the rebels. It may be recommended that a carefully orchestrated dual-strategy of TK-TI compounded with population-centric, WHAM-based CI operations, needs to be implemented. The direct deployment of the Army may be kept on hold. However, future prospects of the Army being put into effect should not be ruled out www.geopolitics.in
altogether. Tribal militias need to be upheld. But, they must be provided legitimacy through the process of official recruitment. Tribal militias are extremely significant for acquiring knowledge of the local terrain and for useful ground intelligence. Moreover, consistent attempts must be made to dissect the political unity of the ultras. The path of ‘talks’ needs to be kept open as a viable option, but only when the government would be sure that the Maoist guerillas are in an awkward position to continue their present phase of ‘strategic defence’. Mere proclamations of ‘ceasefires’ by the Maoists should not be taken as pre-conditions for opening talks as these temporary cessation of hostilities are used by the rebels to regroup, rearm, revitalise and recruit. Talks can only be initiated if the government is in a ‘position of strength’. And this could be achieved through sustained implementation of a strategic framework, which houses TK-TI-plus WHAM-based CI operations. Talks? Not Always While researching
on
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insurgency,
CRPF
Martha Crenshaw observes that rebellions may systematically decline because of three features: physical defeat, decision of the group to abandon terrorist strategy and organisational disintegration. In the Indian context, it may be hypothesised that some or all the above features may be achieved through talks. However, if talks do not provide the way out, then TK/TI along with WHAMbased CI operations must be employed. After all, the demise of the Maoist insurgency should be an acceptable endgame for the Adivasis, the government, the police and the paramilitary; apart from the core Maoist leadership. If talks work, then fine. Otherwise, to quote notable military strategist Luttwak, there would probably be no harm if “war is given a chance”. It is true that development and governance are the keys to long-term tranquility, but the ‘small war’ must be won as a prerequisite. (Dr Uddipan Mukherjee is an Asstt. Prof. at BPPIMT, Kolkata, India and a Strategic Analyst at ITS,Landshut, Germany & Gais, Italy) January 2012
geopolitics
DIPLOMACY
STILWELL IMPACT WILL THE YO-YO PHASE OF INDIA-IRAN RELATIONS REACH A MORE STABLE PLANE?
PIB
AMIR H. MAHMOODI PANORAMIO.COM
US AIR FORCE
It is like a rattlesnake’s zig-zzag trespass but the Stilwell Road is actually a life-ssaver and can have a huge role to play in India’s Look-EEast policy
INDIA-RUSSIA SUMMIT: AGE OLD TIES REAFFIRMED
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ALL WELL AT STILWELL? PERSPECTIVES FROM THE NORTHEAST
WWIILECTUREINSTITUTE.COM
Originally termed the Ledo Road, the 1,736-kilometre Stilwell Road was built during World War II from Ledo in Assam to Kunming so that the Western Allies could supply Chiang Kai-Shek’s Kuomintang forces to fight the Japanese during the World War II. It was renamed after General Vinegar Joe Stilwell of the US Army in 1945. The reopening of the Stilwell road could reduce by 30 per cent the cost of transporting goods between India and China, providing a boost to Sino-Indian overland trade in a few years. It could also boost trade with the ASEAN countries, an important goal of India’s Look-East policy. But there are other issues involved that require caution. We present two different views REVISITING KUNMING: After seven decades the need to reconnect with eastern Asia has increased
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Stilwell will usher in development of the North-East
W
ith the first high-level Myanmarese visit to India in many decades, witnessed in President Thein Sein’s trip to the country this year, Indo-Myanmarese relations seem to be going from strength-to-strength. In this context, and in the perspective of development, the reopening of the Stilwell route as a trade road is important for the overall trade benefit and commercial development of the North-Eastern region (NER) of India. Economic Implications The Stilwell Road connects Ledo in Assam through Arunachal Pradesh with Yunnan Province in China, through Myitkyina in Myanmar. The 632-kilometre stretch in China and 60-kilometre in Assam have been constructed; however, a major section of the road lies in Myanmar, stretching 1,033 kilometres, and until this year, Myanmar was reluctant to develop its side of the road. This year, it awarded the contract for the construction of the 312-kilometre portion linking Myitkyina in Kachin State to Pangsau Pass on the Arunachal Pradesh border, to the Yunnan Construction Engineering Group of China. Both India’s North-East and China’s Yunnan province are landlocked, and while China has had successes in implementing sub-regional growth in Yunnan, economic development in the North-East leaves a lot to be desired. This road carries viable economic importance for IndoMyanmarese and Sino-Indian trade. Most significantly, this road will reduce transportation costs between India and China by around 30 per cent or more, compared to the current trade value. Beijing recently hosted the first-ever India-China special talks on strategic economic cooperation, which is a step forward for bilateral cooperation. In terms of India’s trade with Myanmar, although bilateral trade has increased, there are still gaps that need to be addressed. One tends to ignore the border trade potential between India and Myanmar. To correct this, Stilwell Road could
Needed: More focus on links with Myanmar
T
he economic gains that can be accrued from the reopening of the Stilwell ‘Road’ cannot be denied. However, atmospheres of goodwill have a sense of immediacy and are timebound, and much more needs to be done to exploit the present momentum in Indo-Myanmarese relations. For this, the attention on Stilwell Road could quite possibly overshadow the consideration that ought to be given to the maintenance and regulation of projects and cross-border routes already in existence. There are, therefore, some crucial points that merit attention. Stilwell or Moreh? The Stilwell Road was used as a supply line for military troops during World War II, after which it became redundant. It has never been used for trade purposes and to ask for its ‘reopening’, in that context, is a fallacy. The currently operating border point is at Moreh in Manipur, which connects with Tamu in Myanmar. It has been recorded that a significant amount of illegal trade occurs across the border. Although the list of tradable items across the North-Eastern border was recently expanded from 22 to 40 items, border trade is still wanting in various aspects, such as infrastructure and security mechanisms. Working on the assumption that this pattern is likely to be replicated in the case of Stilwell, it can be said that its operationalisation is not a shortterm goal. Therefore, while discussion in policy circles about the enormous gains to be had from the reopening of this route in the absence of any official undertaking is all very well, steps must also be taken to ensure that they do not cloud the work that needs to be done in strengthening the point at Moreh, and operationalising agreements made on other border points, such as Zowkathar (Mizoram)-Rhi (Myanmar). Political Dimensions The primary importance for this renewal of interest is due to the passage it provides to Yunnan in China. This could potentially assign secondary importance to Myanmar, which would serve as the transit country. Although there are no reports on whether
RENEWING BONDS: The Stillwell Road could prove to be a major conduit for India’s Look-East Policy CHAPATIEXPRESS.FILES.WORDPRESS.COM
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ACROSS THE HUMP: The road would lead to the opening-up of North-East to the vast markets in Burma and Thailand
emerge as a preferred trade route between the two countries. Except for farm and forest products, most commodities imported through Myanmar by informal channels are largely products manufactured in China, ASEAN countries or the Koreas and Japan. In contrast, the informal exports to Myanmar are varied and ranged from basic necessities such as medicines and kerosene to household consumption items all of which are manufactured in India. Apart from producing agricultural surpluses, Myanmar’s coastal areas are also richly endowed with natural gas where Indian companies like the Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) are already engaged in exploration and production. Therefore, there is huge potential for the development of bilateral economic cooperation via this route with Myanmar. Development of the North-East Apart from boosting Sino-Indian and Indo-Myanmarese trade, the road is also considered important for the development of India’s North-East. The starting point of the road, Ledo, is in Assam, which is believed to be the gateway to the North-East India and is well connected by railways to all other Indian states. Reopening the road will not only help to develop the export potential of the North-Eastern products but also better land connectivity to the North East for the transport of export products from the rest of India, since it is directly connected to National Highway-31, which the existing trade routes do not have direct access to. Security Considerations
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Myanmar will be a transit route or a trade point extending to Kunming via Stilwell, the linkage that it will help establish with China is given much more prominence. It is important to note that both trade with and through Myanmar is vital for India’s North-Eastern states and for this purpose routes in operation would serve just as well. Myanmar plays a decisive role in India’s ‘Look-East’ Policy because it is India’s access point to East and Southeast Asian markets. Myanmar this year indicated its willingness to implement market reform and make investments more attractive to interested external parties. At a meeting between India’s Minister for Commerce, Anand Sharma, and U Khin Maung Lay, Chairman of Myanmar Trade Council, an agreement was reached to aim at doubling the trade between the two countries by 2015 from $1.5 billion to $3 billion, and increase the list of tradable items. The additional strategic benefit that this opportunity offers to India is as a counterpoint to China’s headway into Southeast Asia; Chinese investments suffered a setback after the Myanmarese suspension of a Chinese hydro-electric project in the country. Diplomatic relations are unpredictable at the best of times; they should, therefore, be grabbed when presented. The appropriate channel for cementing Indo-Myanmarese trade linkages at such a propitious time would be routes that are already in existence, and not those that are hoped to come online at some point in the future. In addition, the China factor also indicates the assumed or endowed stewardship of Assam in matters of the Northeast. In terms of ministerial influence, Assam is observed to have the most clout at the Centre among the other North-Eastern states. The recognition granted to Stilwell thus speaks also of internal politicking. Stilwell connects Ledo in Assam to Yunnan in China and just as Myanmar could act as a transit country for exchanges between the two Asian powerhouses, Arunachal Pradesh, through which Stilwell passes, could merely play the role of a trade conduit between Assam, Myanmar and China. Does this augur well that development meant for the entirety of the North-East may be monopolised by Assam and leave the other states behind? LEP and Vision 2020 One of the reasons for the primacy placed on the Look-East Policy (LEP) is the mileage it provides to the Vision 2020 document, which is intended for the development of the North-East region. This is to be brought about by establishing and consolidating linkages with the countries that lie in its immediate neighbourhood and serve as gateways to Southeast Asia. For this outcome, it is essential that Moreh-Tamu play a critical role, since border trade at this point is already in place. Procedures for border trade have been deemed complicated. In fact, Indians conducting cross-border businesses prefer to use sea routes from Kolkata, Mumbai and Singapore rather than across land borders in the Northeast to avoid tax irregularities. This, despite the signing of the Double Taxation Avoidance Agreement between India and Myanmar, which is supposed to make certain that taxation occurs in the country where the company holds permanent residence. Rules therefore need simplification, and trade needs regularisation, to stem illegal exchanges and strengthen formal trade. Apart from the border points, the various Indo-Myanmarese ventures that have been languishing on the back-burner need impetus, more so than the construction and rehabilitation of a route, which might be a pipedream, at least in the foreseeable future. With the exception of land connectivity with China, these
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INDIA LEDO
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CHINA
KUNMING
AMBER KUMAR
MYANMAR
EPIC PROJECT: Although daunting, the Himalayas have not proved to be an insurmountable obstacle in the face of strategic concerns
Recently, the former Director-General of the Border Security Force (BSF) Prakash Singh stated that the western border of India had been given far more attention than the northern border areas, which showed the lack of a uniform policy of the Government of India (GoI) towards the country’s borders. Negligent border management has resulted in illegal trade and consistent security threats in the region. Therefore, while considering the importance of Stilwell, adequate attention must also be given to security threats which hinder investments in the region. For this, joint cross-border security mechanisms are essential, and the operationalisation of Stilwell Road can be a first step in the direction of making Indo-Myanmarese linkages secure. The rugged topography of the region and lack of connectivity have always been major hindrances in the economic as well as infrastructural development of the Northeast of India. The reopening of the road will diminish the remoteness of sections of the border area, reducing the threat posed by insurgent elements.
projects would help accomplish the very same developmental goals that are trumpeted as the prizes to be won from the opening of Stilwell Road. The Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project, for instance, comprises road and water corridors, and amongst others, is anticipated to act as a direct agent of trade between the Myanmarese port of Sittwe and ports on the eastern seaboard of India. Its inadequate implementation, however, demonstrates a gap that needs urgent attention; progress thus far has been inadequate. It could play a catalytic role in transforming the North East, thereby aiding the fulfilment of the Vision 2020. It must be noted that in this anointing of Stilwell Road because of the provision it makes for trade with China, Myanmar could be very easily ignored. Trade between India and Myanmar is still small compared to Myanmar’s other major trade partners — China and Thailand — and demands dynamic investments and development. Stilwell Road can most certainly be prioritised as is the current trend, as long as the routes in existence and the additional assistance they require is not neglected at the expense of it.
Jayasree Nath Formerly with Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS)
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Ruhee Neog Research Officer, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS) January 2012
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BEYOND HISTORICAL I
LINKAGES Despite civilisational ties between the two, the recent relations between India and Iran have been marked by more downs than ups, writes YAMINI CHOWDHURY
RENEWING BONDS: A profound relationship between India and Iran — two culturally rich and historically diverse civilisations exists
N WHAT is widely regarded as one of the most engaging historical accounts of India, authors Alain Daniélou and Kenneth Hurry, in their book A Brief History of India, trace the origin of India-Iran relations since the time “when the Iranian and Indo-Aryan tribes had separated, about 2500 B.C.E”. It was this constant interaction that established a profound relationship between the two culturally-rich and historically-diverse civilisations: India and Iran. For centuries, religion, history and culture have been the most distinctive elements of this strong and vibrant link and have played a pivotal role in maintaining the strength of bilateral ties till this day. Besides, the strategic dimension of the relationship is another aspect that merits attention. Iran’s size, favourable geographical location — providing unbridled access to Central Asia — and significant energy resources have enabled this large Persian Gulf nation to acquire a more commanding presence in India’s strategic calculus. Talking of recent times, the visit of former Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao to Tehran in 1993 heralded a new chapter in bilateral relations. Iran underscored the importance of the relationship when, just a year later, it prevented a Pakistan-sponsored resolution of the Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC), condemning human rights violations in Kashmir, from being tabled at the UN Human Rights Council. Common concerns, like the rise of the Taliban, and common causes, like extending support to the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan in collaboration with Russia, added greater substance and strength to this rapport. All this culminated in the “New Delhi Declaration”, the most significant outcome of the January 2003 visit of Iranian President Mohammad Khatami. It enabled the regional powers to augment their strategic partnership. It was a partnership that held out tremendous promise, as Iran had emerged as India’s key ally in the Muslim world.
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g DIPLOMACY Towards Intransigent Postures If 2003 was the high point in India-Iran relations, then 2006 can be described as the nadir. Three years and two votes later, the relationship had undergone a dramatic reversal. India’s vote against Iran at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in 2005 was welcomed by unremitting displeasure. A year later, India joined the United States and 26 other nations in a scathing attack on Iran’s nuclear programme, and voted in favour of referring the state to the UN Security Council for violating international obligations. One of the factors that explained India’s voting was the pressure from the United States. As enmeshed in the Hyde Act, the US demanded a clear linkage between the voting against Iran and the conclusion of the India-US civilian nuclear deal. Commenting on the India-Iran standoff, Dr. Harsh V Pant, Reader in International Relations at the Department of Defence Studies in King’s College, London, maintains, “I am sure Iran must have liked India to support its case. But India has its own interests to preserve. How could India have supported Iran’s defiance of the global nuclear order at a time when India was trying to become a part of that order via the US-India civilian nuclear cooperation agreement? Iran itself has not supported India on crucial issues that matter to New Delhi, so I don’t think there is any question of reciprocity.” After India’s vote, Iran blocked the contracted shipments of liquid natural gas (LNG). The energy relationship with this crucial partner sunk to an even lower plane, only to be replaced with a strong partnership with Saudi Arabia. Targeting ‘Nuclear’ Iran In November 2011, the perennial problem concerning Iran’s nuclear edifice triggered off acrimonious reactions yet again. The latest IAEA report on the country’s nuclear programme has brought this contentious issue into sharp focus, as it contradicts Iran’s contention of running an entirely peaceful enterprise. The reaction from the West followed predictable lines — imposing sanctions and ordering the closure of embassies, without the slightest hesitation. Though India articulated its concerns about this grim development, it adopted a more mature and responsible approach guided by its own interests. “India definitely does not want another nuclear weapons state destabilising a precarious www.geopolitics.in
environment, stresses Ambassador Arundhati Ghose, Former Chairperson, UN Secretary-General’s Advisory Board on Disarmament. “Further,” she adds, “any action taken by the US and its allies would have a calamitous impact on India’s commercial interests.”
IRAN HAS GREAT STRATEGIC SIGNIFICANCE FOR INDIA, AS IT IS AN IMPORTANT SOURCE OF ENERGY It is a view shared by Rejaul Laskar, an expert on International Relations, who articulates, “India’s position on Iran’s nuclear programme has been consistent, principled and balanced, and makes an endeavour to reconcile Iran’s quest for energy security with the international community’s concerns on proliferation. So while India acknowledges and supports Iran’s ambitions to achieve energy security and, in particular, its quest for peaceful use of nuclear energy, it is also India’s principled position that Iran must meet all its obligations under the international law, particularly its obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and other such treaties, to which it is a signatory.” It may be noted that like China and Russia, India too, has opposed sanctions on Iran by individual countries, as it precludes foreign investments in its energy sector, ultimately affecting the people of that country. “The international community must engage with Iran through dialogue. Military action in this unstable region would have a catastrophic impact on world oil prices,” suggests Ambassador Ghose. Crucial Issues There are several critical issues in the region that require India and Iran to elucidate a comprehensible blueprint for the future. The most contentious of these issues is the restoration of peace and stability in Afghanistan, which, as articulated in the New Delhi Declaration, “requires the two states to broaden their strategic collaboration in third countries”.
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Moreover, as the deadline for the withdrawal of US troops from the region draws closer, it becomes imperative to deploy a comprehensive strategy. Both India and Iran are important stakeholders, who have an enormous strategic imperative to institute a demilitarised environment of peace in Afghanistan, asserts Satish Chandra, former Deputy National Security Advisor. “Despite a trust deficit between Iran and India arising primarily on account of our having voted against it at the IAEA and its perception that we are cosying up to the USA, we share a common interest in Afghanistan as both of us would not like to see a Taliban regime in that country. Cooperation possibilities on this score exist and we should work on them,” he insists. But, as Dr Pant points out, the possibility of the Taliban coming back to power with Pakistani help may not be persuasive enough for the two important players to join hands. “India and Iran will have to coordinate their responses, particularly since there are fundamental differences. While Iran wants to see the US out of Afghanistan lock, stock and barrel, India feels the US presence in the region is good for its interests,” he maintains. Despite the inherent differences, there are many ways in which India and Iran could co-operate politically in stabilising Afghanistan, as highlighted by S Samuel C Rajiv, an Associate Fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi. “India and Iran could also cooperate in crucial economic projects by adding value to Afghanistan’s economy as well as catering to India’s own requirements of minerals like iron ore, which are reportedly found in abundance in areas like Hajigak, north of Kabul. The possibility of connecting Hajigak to Chahbahar port through a 900-km railway line, from where the minerals can be shipped to Surat or Mumbai, must be explored. This may seem daunting considering the worrisome security situation, but India has been able to deliver on crucial infrastructure projects like the 215km Delaram-Zaranj highway in the past,” concludes Rajiv. The development of the Chahbahar port and the construction of the railway line have the potential to be a game-changer, believes Dr M Mahtab Alam Rizvi, Associate Fellow at IDSA. “The port is in the mutual interest of India, Iran, Afghanistan, as well as Central Asia. It would provide an entry point into Afghanistan and Central January 2012
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LIQUID GOLD: With 10 per cent of the world’s proven oil reserves, it is not surprising that energy security has always dominated the discourse on India-Iran relations
Asia”, he emphasises. Considering the import that these infrastructure projects have on the economic and security architecture of the region, India must leverage Iran’s support and pursue the same with greater vim and vigour. Energy Security With India’s energy consumption expected to gallop to 27.1 quadrillion BTUs by 2025 and Iran recognised as OPEC’s second-largest oil producer with 10 per cent of the world’s proven oil reserves, it is not surprising that energy security has always dominated the discourse on India-Iran relations. India’s oil imports from Iran are approximately 400,000 barrels per day, almost 12 per cent of the country’s total import, making Iran the second-largest oil supplier to India after Saudi Arabia. At the core of India’s energy equation with Iran lie two important but arduous projects — the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline project and the LNG deal. Commenting on the challenges facing both these projects, Professor PR Kumaraswamy, Chairperson, Centre for West Asian Studies (CWAS), School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, says, “The 1,700-mile, $7-billion IPI gas pipeline project has failed to take off primarily due to security concerns in Pakistan. The other project, which involves the export of LNG from Iran, has not materialised even though it was signed in 2005, even before the election of President Ahmadinejad, due to a multiplicity of reasons. It requires India to construct an LNG plant using Western technology, which would be in violation of the Iran Sanctions Act. Matters are exacerbated by the lack of consensus between Indian and Iranian oil www.geopolitics.in
companies with regard to the legal interpretation of the contact”. The conclusion of the Iran-Pakistan pipeline deal in 2009 and the rise of China as Iran’s largest trading partner have underscored the urgency for India to intensify its energy engagement with Iran.
ENGAGING WITH A RISING GLOBAL POWER LIKE INDIA WILL LEND IT A MODICUM OF LEGITIMACY TO INDIA Defence India’s defence ties with Iran, restricted by the burgeoning Indo-Israel defence partnership, have comprised naval exercises conducted in 2003 and 2006, and Iran’s participation in the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium, an annual initiative organised by the Indian Navy to enhance maritime cooperation among the naval forces of the Indian Ocean littoral states. Though the presence of an armed Iranian ship, MV Assa, in India’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) near Lakshadweep over a month ago did cause a flutter in South Block, the defence relationship has been largely intermittent. According to Samuel Rajiv, “I do not see any prospect or requirement for any defence engagement beyond training programmes conducted by Indian defence establishments for foreign officers, in which Iranian
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officers are, on occasions, present along with many other nationalities, especially from the neighbourhood.” The Way Forward Analysing the future of Indo-Iran ties, Ambassador Chandra maintains, “Iran is and shall remain an important regional player. Apart from the shared cultural and historical linkages, Iran has enormous strategic significance for India, as it is an important source of energy and a gateway to Central Asia. It is imperative that we engage actively with Iran, irrespective of a Western-driven sanctions regime against it.” From Iran’s standpoint, engaging with a rising global power like India will lend it a modicum of legitimacy. Ambassador Ghosh believes: “India’s engagement with Iran in the future will continue to be determined by our core interests in the region, namely oil and natural gas, stability in the Gulf and the acceptance of Iran as a regional power. Strong, steady bilateral relations, despite political upheavals in Iran, will play a pivotal role in the geo-politics of the region.” In addition to developing a robust relationship with one of the biggest suppliers of energy to India, Dr Rizvi believes: “High-level visits and track-II level dialogues would add substance to bilateral ties.” However, Iran’s international isolation could be a major stumbling block, thinks Dr Pant. “India has a huge stake in maintaining stability in West Asia but unless Iran brings itself back into the global mainstream, the Indo-Iran partnership will be remain largely circumscribed,” he analyses. (The author is a journalist) January 2012
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GLOBALWATCH
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T IS WRONG to view the proposed India-Australia-US cooperation agreement as a military pact being planned to contain the rising influence of China. The proposal seeks to enhance the levels of security cooperation, along with working on other issues of mutual interest and concern, among the three countries. One such issue of common interest is maritime security whose dynamics are rapidly changing. Such an alliance would serve India’s interests As advocates of trilateral cooperation among the US, Australia and India, we have watched with interest the attention given to the issue in the Indian media. We released a report on the topic in November in New Delhi and Sydney. The primary goal of our report, authored by scholars from Australia’s Lowy Institute and India’s Observer Research Foundation, entitled Shared Goals, Converging Interests: A Plan for US-Australia-India Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, is to encourage cooperation across a broad range of shared interests, from maritime security to counter-terrorism to non-proliferation, and many other areas. The idea is being floated just as the new US-Japan-India trilateral initiative is about to be formally launched in Washington later this month (December). It also comes amidst a decision by Australia’s Labour Party to lift its ban on uranium exports to India — a major gesture by Australia’s ruling party in the future of
Australia-India relations. Given the amount of groundwork already done on the Japan dialogue, it is understandable that policy-makers want to focus their attention there first. But the concept of an India-US trilateral with Australia has a very similar logic to it. It is an idea whose time is now. Each side of the triangle is already in development. On the strongest side, the US and Australia have a robust security alliance, involving joint military facilities, major multi-service combined exercises, co-development of weapon systems and joint strategic planning. As for the US and India, in 2005 they signed a 10-year defence framework agreement, and today, India conducts more military exercises with the US than any other nation. On the India-Australia side, the parties issued the 2009 Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation and have proceeded with bilateral talks between service chiefs and security advisers. One of the most promising areas for trilateral cooperation is enhancing maritime security and maintaining freedom of navigation in the Indo-Pacific. Twothirds of Indian oil and gas imports transit the Indian Ocean waters, and most of Australia’s resource exports transit East Asian waterways to China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. India is steadily building up its naval capabilities, giving particular attention to its Eastern Naval Command’s role in its overall naval strategy and foreign policy.
Three years ago, India convened the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium, inviting participants from the littoral states — including Australia - to discuss maritime security. India, the US and Australia should begin discussing a code of conduct for naval vessels and other maritime activities in the region and an action plan for dealing with violations of such a code. The three powers should consider what would be the best forum for managing this code: Perhaps an enhanced version of IONS or a new forum with conditions
US-AUSTRALIA-INDIA: A POSSIBLE NEW ALLIANCE For peace and stability in the region, it will be good if three democratic regimes in the “Indo-Pacific” work together, argues LISA CURTIS and WALTER LOHMAN www.geopolitics.in
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COOPERATION FOR SECURITY: Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh at a bilateral meeting with the Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard during the ASEAN Summit in 2010
of entry based on capabilities, interests, willingness to contribute, and a demonstrated willingness to abide by the rules. Furthermore, the US and Australia should encourage India to join the multilateral Combined Task Force 151 antipiracy operations off the coast of Somalia. As its naval capabilities grow, India should participate in multinational efforts to address piracy and maintain freedom of the seas. The report also highlights the potential for the three countries to increase consultations and intelligence sharing on terrorist networks, both at home and abroad. Washington, Canberra and New Delhi share the goal of preventing Afghanistan from again serving as a haven for international terrorists. Given several roadblocks the US has hit with its strategy in Afghanistan in the last few months, including (the recent) NATO attack that killed 24 Pakistani soldiers along the Afghanistan border, it is clear the conflict is far from over. And it’s a conflict that has www.geopolitics.in
enormous implications for trends in global terrorism that affect all three nations.
INDIA, THE US AND AUSTRALIA SHOULD BEGIN DISCUSSING A CODE OF CONDUCT FOR NAVAL VESSELS With India’s extensive — and Australia’s growing — development programmes in Afghanistan, Washington should work with both capitals to fortify Afghanistan’s institutions to preserve the democratic and human development gains made over the last decade. Washington and Canberra should fully support New Delhi’s role in Afghanistan, noting that it has every right to safeguard its interests there.
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On non-proliferation, the three countries can help develop fresh thinking about India’s relationship with the Nuclear non-Proliferation Treaty and the global non-proliferation regime that accounts for the reality that India is both a highly responsible actor when it comes to non-proliferation, but is also unlikely to join the treaty as a non-nuclear weapons state. The US first substantially acknowledged this during the Bush Administration with the US-India Civil Nuclear Cooperation Agreement. US President Barack Obama has taken it to the next logical step with his stated intention to bring India into the four major non-proliferation groupings — the Nuclear Suppliers Group, Missile Technology Control Regime, Australia Group, and Wassenaar. The Australia Group is the easiest place to start India’s formal entry into the global export control network. Being the permanent chair of the grouping, Canberra could advise India on harmonising its export controls and encourage other members of the grouping to welcome India’s admission. Some of the media coverage of the prospects for US-India-Australia trilateral cooperation is misleading. No one in his or her right mind believes a trilateral ‘security pact’ is in the offing. The goal is really to promote a stable and predictable order in the Indo-Pacific. This is not to say that officials from the three countries should not compare notes regarding their China policies. All three are economically and diplomatically deeply engaged with China and, at the same time, hedging against the potential negative side of its rise. (Japan is in some variation of the same position.) There is great value in discussing the different contexts and experiences we have had trying to reconcile these approaches. And the outcome need not be all negative. Indeed, we may develop new, constructive ways of dialogue with the Chinese. The US, Australia and India have ‘intersecting’, not ‘identical’ interests. There are things we disagree on. Geography alone dictates that we see the world from slightly different angles. But there is enough commonality in our world views and our challenges that we should consider those areas where our perspectives do overlap and work together where it is in our mutual interest. (Lisa Curtis is Senior Research Fellow and Walter Lohman is Director, Asian Studies, with the Heritage Foundation) January 2012
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DIPLOMACY The just-concluded IndoRussian summit held at Moscow promises to be yet another milestone in strengthening the special and privileged strategic partnership between the two countries, argues ARUN MOHANTY
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NDIA AND RUSSIA, two genuine and special strategic partners, recently concluded yet another regular bilateral summit at Moscow. This had been the 12th India-Russia Annual Summit meeting since the declaration of the Indo-Russia Strategic Partnership in 2000. It once again underscored why Indo-Russian strategic partnership is special and unique. In the entire history of international relations, India and Russia are the only two major countries which never had any conflict of interest, let alone military conflict. There is a continuity in the time-tested bilateral relationship, which does not get affected by political fluctuations in either country. One does not perceive any threat from the growing strength of the other, rather gains more confidence from the elevation of the other’s status. India has many strategic partners, and so has Russia. However, Delhi and Moscow are ‘special and privileged strategic partners’ for each other. Because, Russia is the only strategic partner with which India holds a regular annual summit. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh held substantive talks with both Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin during the last summit held at Moscow. While
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ALL-WEATHER FRIENDS: India and Russia have identical positions on all major global and regional issues of mutual concern PIB
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g DIPLOMACY this was President Medvedev’s last summit with the Indian Prime Minister, Russia would be represented most likely by Vladimir Putin, widely believed to be the architect of our strategic partnership, in the next Indo-Russian summit in Delhi. Russia’s ruling party might have taken a beating in the last Duma elections compared to its showing in the Parliament poll held in 2007, it nevertheless received almost 50 per cent of the votes. In spite of some decline in Putin’s popularity, nothing can prevent him from winning the forthcoming presidential polls. The stage is set for Putin to be Russian President at least for the next 12 years, which augurs well for the IndoRussian relationship, as he is considered to be the architect of our strategic partnership. One should not be worried about poll results in Russia in terms of its relationship with India as a broad consensus across political parties in that country on the issue of developing a strategic partnership with India exists. Both sides had wide-ranging discussions at the Moscow summit on a host of global as well as regional issues of mutual concern and deliberated on ways to further enhance our consultations in international forums such as the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), G20, Brazil Russia India China South Africa (BRICS) as well as the East Asia Summit, which Russia has recently joined. The Indian PM is on record that he is convinced that the India-Russia consultation on global issues is more necessary today than ever before. The summit reasserted the special and privileged nature of the Indo-Russian strategic partnership, which Indian Prime Minister aptly described as an anchor of peace and stability in a world of strategic flux and shifting global power equations. “It is impossible to draw any parallels or compare the relations between India and Russia and our relations with some other countries. We [India and Russia] have a specially privileged strategic partnership,” said the Prime Minister, stressing the unique nature of our tested and tried relationship. Indo-Russian summits are always known for the impressive number of documents signed in course of the high-level interaction. For example, the 11th IndoRussian summit held in 2010 at Delhi witnessed the signing of 30 documents for promoting ties in different areas. However, only five documents were www.geopolitics.in
inked in the course of the last Moscow summit that included an agreement for production of 42 SU-30 MKI multi-functional jets in India, agreement on cooperation in the sphere of education, Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for establishing ties between anti-monopoly agencies of both countries, MoU for cooperation in the pharmaceutical field for overseeing safety and quality issues. However, the outcome of the summit must be judged not by the number of documents signed but by the depth and range of understanding that emerged in the course of an unprecedented six hours of interaction that leaders of both countries had. President Medvedev and Prime Minister Singh signed a joint statement on further strengthening the Russian-Indian strategic partnership in the face of the challenges of the changing world in course of the summit. That
THE BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP DOES NOT GET AFFECTED BY POLITICAL FLUCTUATIONS IN EITHER COUNTRY India and Russia have identical positions on all major global and regional issues of mutual concern is vividly demonstrated in the joint statement issued at the end of the summit. The Moscow summit demonstrated the meeting of minds of the two strategic partners on a host of burning international issues that included Syria, Iran, Afghanistan, situation in the Middle-East and North Africa, terrorism, security in Asia, Indian and Asia-Pacific regions. On the issue of security and cooperation in Asia, Delhi and Moscow reiterated their support to the creation of a transparent, open, comprehensive, and balanced architecture of security and cooperation in the region based on the recognised principles of international law as well as respect for the legitimate interests of all states. They emphasised their commitment to the principle of indivisibility of security, unacceptability of attempts to enhance their own security to the
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detriment of other states’ security, inadmissibility of preservation and creation of new dividing lines. The sides acknowledged the necessity of addressing both traditional and new security threats — terrorism, extremism, weapons of mass destruction (WMD) proliferation, illicit drug trafficking, organised crime and maritime piracy. They expressed readiness to work closely within the framework of the East Asia Summit, which they regard as a leadersled forum for dialogue on broad strategic, political and economic issues of common interest and concern with the aim of promoting peace, stability and economic prosperity in East Asia. While emphasising the importance of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in fostering regional security and cooperation, Russia welcomed India’s intention to join the organisation as a full-fledged member and expressed the belief that its participation would significantly increase the political weight of the SCO and give new quality and dimension to cooperation within its framework. Russia firmly said that it stood for joint efforts with other SCO members to accelerate the process of India’s full membership of the organisation. While expressing interest in strengthening multilateral export control regimes as an important component of the global non-proliferation regime, the Russian side reiterated readiness to assist and promote a discussion and positive decision in the Nuclear Security Group (NSG) on India’s full membership in the NSG, and welcomed India’s intention to seek full membership. India underscored its determination to actively contribute to international efforts aimed at strengthening the nuclear non-proliferation regime. The Russian Federation also took into consideration India’s interest in full membership in Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) and the Wassenaar Arrangement. The sides recalled the bilateral Moscow Declaration between India and Russia on International Terrorism signed on November 6, 2001, in Moscow. Pointing fingers at Pakistan, they strongly condemned the existence of safe havens and sanctuaries for terrorism, and reiterated that states that aided, abetted or sheltered terrorists were as guilty of acts of terrorism as their actual perpetrators. Reaffirming the need for all states to combine efforts to defeat terrorism, January 2012
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RUSSIAN SUPERFIGHTER: An agreement for production of 42 more SU-30 MKI multi-role fighters in India has been signed
Delhi and Moscow agreed that there was no justification whatsoever for any act of terrorism, and that India and Russia being pluralistic states were especially vulnerable to acts of terrorism, which are attacks against the values and freedoms, enshrined in their societies. Both sides reaffirmed that international terrorism was a threat to peace and security, a grave violation of human rights and a crime against humanity. They reaffirmed the central role of the United Nations, in which Moscow reiterated its support for India’s permanent membership in the Security Council, in the combat against international terrorism and in this context called for an early adoption of the UN’s draft. Expectedly, while discussing issues of bilateral ties, defence cooperation occupied the centre-stage in the Moscow summit agenda. A protocol to the intergovernmental agreement of 2000 on rendering technical support in the organisation of the Su-30 MKI aircraft production was signed during the summit. The document envisages supplying additional 4 components for the licensed assembling of Su-30 MKI aircraft — multifunctional fighter jets, which became the flagship of the Indian Air Force. Now India would have 42 more of such jets increasing its total strength to 272 in the IAF. India and Russia have large-scale joint projects that include licensed assembling of the Su-30 MKI fighter jets , T-90S tanks, aircraft engines, production of “BrahMos” stealth supersonic cruise www.geopolitics.in
missiles and supplies of Mi-17 helicopters. Both countries are working for joint production of the Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) and Multirole Transport Aircraft (MTA). Indo-Russian defence cooperation over the years has entered a qualitatively new stage from a buyer-seller relationship to a partnership in joint research, development , production, technology transfer, etc. and even joint marketing. The military and technical cooperation programme envisages 10-year lease of the nuclear submarine “Nerpa” by the Indian Navy, modernisation of the aircraft carrier “Admiral Gorshkov”, supplying of a new set of three frigates. It is reliably learnt that the Russian Nerpa-class nuclear submarine would join the Indian Navy in January 2012. According to the agreement, the submarine, which is on a 10-year lease by the Indian Navy, will be transported to India soon. Nuclear-powered submarines require special skills to operate compared to conventional diesel-powered submarines, which is why Indian Navy staff have been training on the nuclear submarine for the past several months. It may be noted that both countries are currently developing their mutually beneficial defence cooperation on the basis of a ten-year-long framework agreement worth $20 billion covering the period up to 2020. Similarly, bilateral relations in the vital and sensitive areas like nuclear and space fields constitute the backbone of
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HEMANT RAWAT
Indo-Russian high-tech cooperation. Construction of two nuclear reactors at Kudankulam in Tamil Nadu has been on the verge of completion but face problems due to protest demonstrations by locals, bringing clouds over our cooperation in this sensitive sector. While the third and fourth reactors would be built there with Moscow’s assistance, 16 new reactors are planned to be built in India with Russian technical knowhow. However, no new contract could be signed for construction of the third and fourth reactors at Kudankulam, belying expectations. Another sensitive area of our hightech bilateral cooperation is space. India is the only country which has been permitted to be Russia’s partner in the highprofile GLONASS project, an alternative to US-controlled Global Positioning System (GPS) and would receive high precision signals from it for civilian as well as military use. India’s quest for strategic autonomy in advanced technology would be served with the pact on precision signals from GLONASS. The Indian security establishment has set its eyes on GLONASS after it conducted a post-mortem of the US invasion on Iraq. It was discovered that the US had blocked GPS signals to Iraq during the war and then inserted erroneous signals that rendered Saddam Hussain’s military officers virtually blind as far as visual-range sighting and targeting were concerned. It was established that Iraqi Army was trapped, misled and its January 2012
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STRATEGIC PARTNERS: President Medvedev and Prime Minister Singh signed a joint statement on further strengthening the RussianIndian strategic partnership
weapons went awry. Given the love-hate relationship between India and the US, receiving precision signals from GLONASS of Russia, our time-tested friend, is of great strategic importance. However, the weakest link in the growing Indo-Russian relationship is trade and economic ties, which are not commensurate with the high level of political cooperation and do not reflect the potential of the two large economies. The bilateral trade turnover barely touches the $10 billion-level and the mutual investments are at low levels. While discussing the issue at the Moscow summit, India and Russia reaffirmed their resolve to achieve the bilateral trade turnover of $20 billion by 2015. Both sides agreed on four important vectors to galvanise bilateral trade and for fructifying cooperation, including creation of the Joint Study Group ( JSG) to prepare a Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA), with the Custom Union, which unites Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, enhancing connectivity through the International NorthSouth Corridor and Joint Public-Private Investment Fund for investments in India and Russia. It has been decided to create a new Working Group (WG) on modernisation in addition to the nine Working Groups already functioning within the framework of Indo-Russian Intergovernmental Commission (IRIGC). The Moscow summit firmed up prospects for India to expand its presence www.geopolitics.in
in Russian oil and gas through jointventures with energy majors like Gazprom and Novatek. Steel, diamonds, pharmaceuticals and hydrocarbons have been identified as new thrust areas of bilateral economic cooperation. Yet another pillar of our strategic partnership is cooperation in science and technology. Scientists from both countries have been successfully conducting joint research for decades in hundreds of projects under a Complex Long-Term Programme and nearly five hundred projects have been successfully completed so far. However, the problem in the sphere lies in the fact that the results of the research projects do not find industrial application. That is why the establishment of a Science and Technology Centre with offices in Moscow and Delhi would enormously help in commercialising the results of the research projects undertaken by two countries during the past two decades. But then, a perception among certain sections of our policy-makers is growing that Russia’s relevance for India is losing ground in the changed global context and against the backdrop of Moscow’s declined status both as military and economic power. Some go to the extent of asking what Russia can offer us in terms of meeting our growth requirements. However, one should not lose sight of the fact that Russia remains a power-house of high-tech; it still has world’s most developed fundamental science and controls
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30 per cent global resources. India, being Moscow’s most-trusted strategic partner, has the privilege to have access to them and should try to take advantage of it. The obsession of India’s political elite as well as the media, with our relationship with the US contributes to drawing attention away from our relationship with Moscow. Last year, all the leaders of P-5 had visited Delhi, and if one carefully analyses results of those summits, one will find that IndoRussian summit with 33 documents signed during President Medvedev’s visit to Delhi was the most productive and impressive. Russia might have lost its super-power status as a result of the disastrous market reforms of the 1990s, but now it is on a resurgent path. The long-term development strategy under implementation in Russia would make it the fifthlargest economy in the world. Russia with its huge natural resources, vast scientific potential, impressive technical knowhow and tremendous goodwill for us can still cater to a lot of India’s development needs. The deep mutual trust, time-tested and civilisational nature of our long ties would contribute to our mutual prosperity as well as help build a multi-polar, just, democratic global order for the benefit of every nation under the sun. (The author is Professor at School of International Studies, JNU and Director, Eurasian Foundation) January 2012
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EXCERPTS
LESSONS IN DIPLOMACY Diplomacy Indian Style by KP FABIAN is a riveting account of the course of Indian diplomacy down the ages. The following excerpts exhibit two divergent actions performed by India on the international stage. The first instance is from the 1962 War and how India ‘sleepwalked’ into the conflict with China. In the second excerpt, we learn about Swaran Singh’s skilful manoeuvring in the United Nations during the 1971 war when the tide in the Security Council was turning against India. His marathon speech, which had continued for over two days, gave the Indian soldiers enough time to wrap up the Pakistanis, ending in their surrender
Diplomacy Indian Style Author: KP Fabian Publisher: Har-A Anand Pages — 260 Price — `595 Year of Publication — 2012 INDIA SLEEPWALKS INTO WAR As the Indian official history puts it, “The Indian Government in its fond belief did not expect serious retaliation from the Chinese and it assumed that whatever mild reaction came from the Chinese, the Indian Army would be capable of neutralising it.” Thus, “the Government of India ordered the Army to rid the Thagla Ridge of the Chinese as early as possible to do so and the Army www.geopolitics.in
accepted the task — both having based their decision on the unwise assumption that the enemy would not react strongly and mere starting of military activity by India would make the Chinese vacate the Thagla Ridge.68 Clashes occurred in Dhola on 20 and 24 September. Mao started to consider administering a “painful” military rebuff to India. Mao declared himself for war. “We fought a war with old Chiang (Kai shek). We fought a war with Japan and with America. With none of these did we fear. Now the Indians want to fight with us. Naturally, we don’t have fear. We cannot give ground, once we give ground it would be tantamount to letting them seize a big piece of land equivalent to Fujian province.... Since Nehru sticks his head out and insists on us fighting him, for us not to fight with him would not be friendly enough. Courtesy emphasizes reciprocity.” We can leave the chronology here as what happened later is well known. To continue with Carver’s account. At one meeting held after the basic decision was taken to strike hard at India, Mao called on General Ye Jinaying to give his assessment of General Kaul. Ye
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had met Kaul during a visit to India in 1957. Even though Kaul had apparently served in World War 2 in Burma, Ye said, the Indian commander had no actual combat experience. He also seemed to be a very rigid, if impressive looking soldier. Still, he was one of India’s outstanding commanders. “Fine,” Mao interjected, he’ll have another opportunity to shine. (Emphasis added.) Did Mao assess Kaul more accurately than his superiors in Delhi? Mao recognized many difficulties and dangers in going to war with India. Nehru enjoyed high international prestige. India was the leader of the non-aligned movement and was courted by both US and USSR. India’s military inferiority to China (according to China’s analysis Indian military forces were about 1/6th of China’s) would enable India to play “victim.” There would be “misunderstanding” among some Afro-Asian countries. However, Mao concluded, these costs were more than off set by the long term gains of inflicting a severe if limited “war of extermination” on India. Even as PLA moved toward war, Mao asked himself whether it was worth letting Indian forces advance un-resisted January 2012
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further in order to build up a better case for China. Mao had to choose the location of the strike. Aksai Chin was what counted the most for China. But the approach roads “were not convenient” for the PLA. India will not be able to send a big force to Aksai Chin, A big batt!e was required to teach a lesson. A big Chinese offensive met by a small Indian force will not do. India could move its forces in the eastern sector. It was in the east that Nehru had insisted that the McMahon Line was “an established fact.” Hence the choice of Tawang for a big attack. According to the Chinese account, on October 9, over a hundred Indian soldiers crossed the stream flowing along the base of Thagla and closed in on a Chinese out post. The next morning Indian forces opened fire. In response a full battalion, about a thousand, fired back. The war began. India still did not wake up. On October 12, on his way to Colombo, Nehru told the press that the Indian army had orders to clear the Chinese out from all “Indian territory.” On October 16, Mao got a report on the reasons for India’s “expanded offensive” against India. Lei Yingfu made the following points: (1) Nehru wanted to turn Tibet into “a colony or protectorate” for India. (2) A desire to gain increased US support and military assistance from USSR by joining their anti-China campaign. (3) A desire to “achieve hegemony in Asia.” (4) A desire to divert attention from class contradictions in India. (5) Last and the most important, a belief that China was “bluffing” and will not retaliate. Lei repeatedly drew attention to Nehru’s belief that “China was too weak and could be taken advantage of.” On October 16, China reconfirmed its decision to go to war. But, before that China wanted assurances from USSR. On October 14, Ambassador Lin Shao met Khrushchev. If there is a war between India and China, the ambassador was told, “USSR would stand by China.” Though Carver does not say it, it is worth adding that the ambassador did say that India was about to attack China. www.geopolitics.in
Khrushchev stated that it “would be a betrayal to declare neutrality” if China were attacked. We do not know whether Mao had advance knowledge of the Cuban missile crisis. It is possible that Moscow might have thrown a hint. Mao might have complimented himself on his excellent timing for teaching a lesson to India. There was one more factor for the decision on timing: the weather. The best time is July-September. Action should start soon or be postponed till mid-1963. But by then Indians will be better mobilised. Indian forces were short of winter clothing and food and given time they will be better equipped. Formal, final order to start a “self-defensive counter attack” was given on October 18. The attack was set for October 20. SWARAN SINGH’S SUPERB DIPLOMATIC STYLE A word about the diplomatic coup by Foreign Minister Swaran Singh is in order. India’s military action in East Pakistan commenced on December 4, 1971. It was almost like knife going through butter. Pakistan Army was not able to put up any serious resistance. India was able, as we have seen, to disregard calls for cease-fire, thanks to the veto of USSR. Yet, the trend in the Security Council was going against India and USSR signaled around December 10 that it would find it difficult to hold on for much longer. Swaran Singh made a marathon speech lasting for two days to give the Indian military more time to complete the task and arrange for surrender by the Pakistan Army. Swaran Singh at times insisted on sequential as opposed to simultaneous interpretation in order to prolong his speech. After announcing the surrender and as the Security Council proceedings were about to end, Swaran Singh passed a note to Foreign Secretary TN Kaul to ask all the members of the Indian delegation to meet him outside the Security Council chamber. He told them that he did not want any of them to go the bar at UN for the next 48 hours; there should be no expression of triumphalism; we should say that the dismemberment of Pakistan was a tragedy; but add that it occurred because of the wrong policies of the Pakistan Government; India had no
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aggressive designs on the Western front. It is obvious that Swaran Singh was right, prudent, and wise. His advice holds good still. When we hear aggressive talk from India’s officials or the media one is reminded of Swaran Singh. Take the case of President Obama’s success in catching and killing Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad. Presumably, he was staying in a safe house provided by the ISI (Inter-Service Intelligence Agency) of Pakistan. US carried out the operation without any support from Pakistan and without telling that country. In India some commentators started airing the view that India should conduct a similar operation on Daud Ibrahim. In response to a question from the media the Army Chief replied that India could do it. Pakistan reacted by issuing a stiff warning to India. A more mature, capable, and self-confident India would have carried out the operation and talked about it afterwards. Talking about in advance showed immaturity and in any case such talk does not carry much conviction of India’s ability to undertake the task. A word more on Swaran Singh. He went to Sri Lanka in 1971. He was being briefed by the High Commissioner and the Deputy High Commissioner. He asked only three questions: (1) What is the mood in Colombo? (2) What do they want from us? (3) What can India offer them? When Swaran Singh met Prime Minister Sirima Bandaranaike, she asked him to start first. The Sardar adjusted his turban and said softly: In diplomacy, I have been taught to say, “Ladies first.” The Prime Minister burst out laughing. Later, the Prime Minister said that her “elder sister” should visit Sri Lanka at an early date. The Sardar once again readjusted his turban and said, “Between two beautiful ladies, it is so difficult to say who is younger or older.” The Prime Minister almost got out of her chair laughing. Sardar Swaran Singh had the ready wit, so essential for a good diplomat. (KP Fabian, a career diplomat with the Indian Foreign Service for 36 years, retired as Indian Ambassador to Italy) —Excerpted with permission from the publisher January 2012
GEOPOLITICS
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THE FRENCH EXPERIENCE
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S A CONCEPT, “national security” is always evolving. It is no longer viewed only in terms of defending the territories of a country. Its scope is broadening all the time. It is now linked with every vital aspect of national life, even protecting the “cultural profile of a country”. I learnt the above lesson during my recent stay in France. The French Senate, dominated by Socialists, has just passed a bill that would make the legal non- European Union (EU) immigrants to vote in local elections. Of course, it is unlikely that it will become law as the Lower House of French Parliament (National Assembly) is dominated by President Nicolas Sarkozy’s right-of-the centre “Union for a Popular Movement” (UMP). Socialists argue that letting non-European Union citizens vote and get elected in municipal elections would bring immigrants into the fold of French “Republican values” (the French are proud of their “republicanism”, in which the “State” Prakash uncompromisingly guards its supreme authority against the factors of religion and ethnicity, the factors that could weaken the fabric of the national community) and soothe community tensions. On the other hand, UMP says that allowing a foreign and largely Muslim constituency (most of the immigrants into France in recent years are from its former colonies in North Africa and they happen to be Muslims. Between five and six million, the French Muslims are said to be the largest of their kind in the European Union) “to influence local policy would usher in halal meals at school cafeterias and women-only days at municipal swimming pools”, thus endangering the nation’s secular traditions. “The government is resolutely against this proposal,” Interior Minister Claude Gueant has said. According to Xavier LeMoine, Mayor of Montfermeil, a troubled suburban town northeast of Paris, “as in some towns the foreign population can make up half of the total, with the vote they could radically change the way of life in those towns”. It is all the more worse, he adds, “while EU citizens shared a ‘common identity, a common culture’ with the French, in the other countries where many of our foreigners come from, there is nothing in common culturally, much less any common political system”. Immigration issues have gathered greater electoral and political momentum in France, particularly under Sarkozy, first as interior minister and then as the President. It is he who had put into effect a law on immigration based upon the notion of “chosen immigration”, which allows immigration into France to restricted sectors for employment. His UMP says that in the coming Presidential election in May and parliamentary elections in June it would highlight the need for lesser immigrants. However, it would be misleading to think that the www.geopolitics.in
“Left” led by the Socialists are for liberal entry of immigrants into France. Under their regime in 1990s, they had also imposed restrictions. They, like the UMP, would also love only skilled immigration. Their differences are mainly over how to send back illegal immigrants and how to treat those who are legal so that they accept “the French life and the Republican values”. The Socialists argue that the State must encourage the immigrants to participate in national affairs. Of course, there are political calculations, too. It is said that the Socialists deliberately take a pro-immigrant stance to polarise the issue to such an extent that the extremists within “the Right”, such as National Front gain an upper hand over the moderate UMP (and this is happening now, with National Front presidential candidate JeanMarie Le Pen is leading over Sarkozy in the opinion poll) and thus divide the “right votes” to their electoral advantage. If we compare the French situation to the one prevailing in India over the immigraNanda tion issue, there are striking differences. While notwithstanding their differences, both the Right and Left in France recognise the existence of the problem, in India, except the Right (the BJP), no other sections in the polity, including the ruling Congress party, admit that there is a problem. One is referring here to the vexed issue of illegal immigration from Bangladesh, about which the late Home Minister Indrajit Gupta, former Governor of Assam Gen. S K Sinha, late National Security Advisor J N Dixit and Assam High Court have had expressed serious concerns publicly, saying how it would radically change the socio-economic and political profile of Assam and West Bengal in the days to come. Even during UPA-I, on July 14, 2004, in reply to an unstarred question in Parliament, the then Union Minister of State for Home Shriprakash Jaiswal stated that out there were 1,20,53,950 illegal Bangladeshi infiltrators all over India. But under UPA -II, the same Manmohan Singh government withdrew, in February 2009, all the existing official data on the number of illegal Bangladeshis in India as “unreliable” and based on “mere hearsay”! It is no wonder that India does not have any laws pertaining to immigration. The Assam-specific laws (Illegal Migrants Determination Act and the Foreigners Tribunals Order of 2006) have been declared illegal by the Supreme Court; in any case these had been worded in a manner to remain self-paralysed. And that means that unlike in France where the ruling party gets more votes in the name of checking immigration, in India, those ruling the states where immigrants are concentrated the most (Assam and West Bengal) achieve so by courting the immigrants, albeit silently.
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prakashnanda@newsline.in January 2012
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