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INDIA’S LOOK-EAST PHILOSOPHY
geopolitics VOL I, ISSUE IX, JANUARY 2011 ` 100
D E F E N C E D I P L O M A C Y S E C U R I T Y
HUNTING FOR
ANTI-TANK MISSILES
FINETUNING
PARAMILITARY
DISCONTENTS
OUR ARMED FORCES
THE NEW WARRIOR The cyber warfare poses a big challenge to India
Aero.qxd
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COVER STORY P38
Cyber warfare After being at the receiving end of cyber attacks from across the border for many years, India is waking up to devise counter-measures for what is going to be the new frontiers of modern warfare.
FOCUS (P32)
FOREIGN MILITARY SALES (P24)
MILES TO GO AHEAD…
MURKY SITUATION
India’s civil and military leaderships are under substantial stress. Will India learn from the best practices of other nations and incorporate them in higher defence organisation?
Buying foreign armaments may help India, but if this practice goes on carelessly, the country’s indigenisation programme will go for a six.
ASSESSMENT (P65)
DEF BIZ (P18)
SPECIAL REPORT (P14)
THE IMPASSE IN NEPAL
OPERATIONAL REQUIREMENT
SEARCH IS ON
Nepal’s instable political scenario looks like a dark tunnel with no hope of light.
The Indian Army has issued a request for information for light bullet-proof vehicles for counter-insurgency operations.
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The Indian Army has been looking for an anti-tank missile that is man-portable and easy-to-fire.
January 2011
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CHINA’S INFOWAR STRATEGY (P45)
TUG OF WAR (P56)
GROWING STRONG (P60)
THE BEST FIGHTER (P27)
China is trying to resolve its emerging territorial and boundary disputes by raw show of strength rather than through negotiations.
The Sixth Pay Commission has made the paramilitary officers a dissatisfied lot. Their salaries and promotions are unfavourable compared to Indian Police Officers.
Over the years, interactions between India and Brazil — have brought them closer. The two countries are now working hard to take their relationship to the next level.
Rick McCrary, Director, F/A-18 Super Hornet programme in India, speaks to GEOPOLITICS about the evolution of the programme and the technical specialities.
PERSPECTIVE (P68) LOOKING EAST India’s ‘Look East’ policy has entered its third phase of evolution with a thrust on achieving strategic balance in the AsiaPacific region.
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NAXAL-PAK CONNECTION
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Conceptualised and designed by Newsline Publications Pvt. Ltd., from D-11 Basement, Nizamuddin (East), New Delhi -110 013, Tel: +91-11-41033381-82 for NEWSEYE MEDIA PVT. LTD. Managing Editor: TIRTHANKAR GHOSH All information in GEOPOLITICS is derived from sources we consider reliable. It is passed on to our readers without any responsibility on our part. Opinions/views expressed by third parties in abstract or in interviews are not necessarily shared by us. Material appearing in the magazine cannot be reproduced in whole or in part(s) without prior permission. The publisher assumes no responsibility for material lost or damaged in transit. The publisher reserves the right to refuse, withdraw or otherwise deal with all advertisements without explanation. All advertisements must comply with the Indian Advertisements Code. The publisher will not be liable for any loss caused by any delay in publication, error or failure of advertisement to appear. Owned and published by K Srinivasan, 4C Pocket-IV, Mayur Vihar, Phase-I, Delhi-91 and printed by him at Nutech Photolithographers, B-240, Okhla Industrial Area, Phase-I, New Delhi-110020. Readers are welcome to send their feedback at geopolitics@newsline.in. www.geopolitics.in
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‘ARMED RESISTANCE’ AND SEIZING POLITICAL POWER IN INDIA.
INDIA’S LOOK-EAST PHILOSOPHY
geopolitics VOL I, ISSUE IX, JANUARY 2011 ` 100
D E F E N C E D I P L O M A C Y S E C U R I T Y
HUNTING FOR
ANTI-TANK MISSILES PARAMILITARY
DISCONTENTS
FINETUNING
OUR ARMED FORCES
THE NEW WARRIOR The cyber warfare poses a big challenge to India
Cover Design: Ruchi Sinha
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gONLOOKER THE RUSSIAN government has formed an investigative committee to review the December 5, 2010 launch failure of a Proton rocket that ultimately destroyed three navigational satellites. The board, made up of representatives from the Ministry of Defence; the Russian federal space agency, Roscosmos; and the Russian space industry, will attempt to determine the cause of the rocket failure that will ultimately cost billions of roubles and set the GLONASS programme — or Global Navigation System, Moscow’s answer to the US-built Global Positioning System (GPS) — back by at least six months. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has also ordered an audit of the entire $2 billion programme. A programming error reportedly caused the Russian Proton-M booster rocket carrying the three Glonass-M units to veer off course following liftoff from Baikonur space centre in Kazakhstan. “As a result of the failure, Glonass-M cluster was injected into non-targeted orbit,” says Roscosmos, the Russian space agency. The move sent the rocket
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into the Pacific Ocean about 1,609km (1,000mi) northwest of Hawaii. Begun during the Soviet era, GLONASS-M has 21 satellites on orbit; a successful launch would have completed the 24-satellite constellation. The 2008 war with Georgia renewed the Russian government’s interest in updating the M-class constellation and pushing forward with the reducedweight, next-generation GLONASS-K.
Photo courtesy: dailymail.co.uk
PROTON-CRASH SETBACK FOR RUSSIAN GLONASS PROGRAMME
WOMEN IN ‘BRITISH’ SUBMARINES BRITISH AUTHORITIES are considering changing the rules that date back more than 100 years to allow women to join the crews of the Navy’s “silent service”. Women have been barred from subs until now partly because of concerns that mixed crews could cause tension on vessels that spends months underwater. More recently, there have been greater concerns that a woman’s reproductive organs and pregnant women could be affected by the reactors on board modern nuclear-powered submarines. A study by the Institute of Naval Medicine concluded there is no risk to female or fetal health from submarine radiation under normal operating conditions. The Ministry of Defence (MoD) is now reviewing its policy of excluding women as submariners with a Navy source suggesting the ban could be lifted as early as next year. The Royal Navy’s use of submarines first began in 1901 and a change in the rules would mean the MoD having to provide separate sleeping and showering quarters within the vessels. According to media reports, the Naval Families Federation, said, “There was a 50/50 split about whether females should serve in submarines. Some family members did express concerns about where the females were going to sleep, and a number of these physical aspects were raised. We were reassured by the Navy that all this is being taken into account, but we are still keen to hear from anyone who has a view.” A Ministry of Defence spokeswoman told the media, “The Royal Navy is conducting a review of its policy of excluding females from serving in submarines and is considering the operational, health, legal, social, technical and financial implications. No decisions have been taken but all options will be considered.”
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O N L O O K E R
THE FRENCH CONNECTION A JOINT WORKING group involving members of the French and UK parliamentary defence committees has agreed to discuss increased co-operation in the unmanned air vehicle sector as one of its first two bilateral projects. Senior officials from the French National Assembly and Senate and the UK House of Commons and House of Lords met for the first time in Paris on December 8, 2010. They agreed that the planned transition of responsibility to local forces in Afghanistan and UAV matters will be their two working themes for 2011. To meet twice a year, the group will study the planned implementation of increased collaboration between the French and UK armed forces, as outlined in a defence treaty signed by President Nicolas Sarkozy and Prime Minister David Cameron on November 2.
This included proposals to establish a combined joint expeditionary force, share use of their aircraft carriers, integrate logistics support for the Airbus Military A400M transport and pursue possible collaboration on unmanned combat air vehicles. The next meeting will take place in London by mid-2011.
Winning battles
THE EUROPEAN Aeronautic Defence and Space (EADS) will win the US Air Force tanker contract over rival Boeing, according to the most impartial observer. One amongst said, “EADS has emerged as the clear favourite for the coveted deal, based on the Air Force’s internal analysis of the two competing bids. Boeing has lost this competition. The only question now is whether they choose to protest the award, and I’m not sure they will.” The US Air Force said it expects to announce a winner for the potential $40 www.geopolitics.in
billion contract as early as next month. Chicago-based Boeing and EADS, the parent company of Airbus, are vying for the lucrative work to build 179 jet tankers for the Air Force. It’s the second round of competition between the American and European defence giants in a contest marked by fierce political fighting and prodigious marketing campaigns. EADS has said that, if successful, it plans to assemble its KC-30 tankers at a $600 million, 1,500-worker factory to be constructed at Brookley Field. Boeing has proposed to assemble its KC-767 tankers on its existing commercial assembly lines in Everett, Washington, and modify them for the military in Wichita, Kansas. EADS, then part of a team led by Northrop Grumman, won the tanker contract in 2008. But the deal unraveled after federal auditors, acting on a protest filed by Boeing, found problems with the way the Air Force conducted its review. That led to a new competition beginning in July, when Boeing and EADS submitted new bids on the contract.
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INDIA HOLDS THE KEY IN MEETING CHINA’S RISE LEE KUAN Yew, Minister Mentor of Singapore, commented in Forbes that during the last three decades China’s economy has grown at the phenomenal rate of 10 per cent per year, sometimes even exceeding 12 per cent. Can China maintain such high rates for at least another decade, he asked. He went on to mention that it could. “China is starting from a lower base, and its 1.3 billion domestic consumers will keep rates up because their disposable incomes are growing.” “As its GDP has increased, China has become more assertive regarding international issues. Those countries on its periphery — Korea, Japan, Taiwan and the ten Asean countries (Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam) — have felt China’s growing influence,” Yew wrote. He went on to mention that none of the countries on China’s periphery have been able to resist the attraction of its market. “Slowly, but inexorably, we are being drawn into China’s economic orbit. If you look at China’s policies over the last three decades there is little doubt that it has every intention of bringing its three northern neighbours — Korea, Japan and Taiwan — as well as the Asean countries into its economic fold. Of course, at the same time we do enjoy benefits in trade and investment.” China, the senior politician and thinker, emphasized, is a political and economic power the region cannot ignore. “But neither, indeed, can China ignore the US. Although it has a smaller population — 310 million versus China’s 1.3 billion — the purchasing power of Americans is many times that of the Chinese.” “Without an FTA Korea, Japan, Taiwan and the Asean countries will be integrated into China’s economy”, writes Yew, it is an outcome to be avoided from the American point of view. “A considerable counterbalancing force would be to add India to the mix. Whether India would be willing to enter into an FTA with the US, Korea, Japan, Taiwan and the Asean nations is the question. If India joined such an agreement the combined markets would be more than equal to the pull from China.”
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NATO AND MISSILE DEFENCE: OPPORTUNITIES AND OPEN QUESTIONS
In its strategic concept adopted at the recent Lisbon summit, NATO defines the establishment of a missile defence system to defend populations and territories against a ballistic missile attack as a core element of its collective defence. However, important questions remain to be resolved, writes OLIVER THRÄNERT
F OPPORTUNITIES GALORE: An Iranian Shahab-3 missile test
Photo courtesy: globalnational.com www.geopolitics.in
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OR THE first time in the alliance’s history, NATO is pushing for a missile defence capability to cover the entire alliance. Building on the Active Layered Theatre Ballistic Missile Defence (ALTBMD) system launched by NATO in March 2005 to protect deployed troops against short-and medium-range ballistic missiles, the new system is intended to offer protection for the entire territory of the alliance. Its capabilities are to be built up incrementally beginning in 2011, with the primary focus on protecting European NATO members. The entire system is expected to be established by approximately 2018. In order to prevent this project from jeopardising relations with Russia, Moscow, was invited at the NATO summit in Lisbon in November 2010 to participate in an action plan for the concrete design of the intended missile defence architecture is to be presented at the NATO defence ministers’ meeting in June 2011. Of course, the US missile defence plans, which are to be combined with the capabilities of European allies, play a key role January 2011
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g GLOBALEYE in the build-up of the planned system. Under former US president George W. Bush, the US had still emphasised national missile defence plans. Elements of the defence architecture, which was mainly intended to protect the US itself, were to be installed in Poland and the Czech Republic on the basis of bilateral treaties. Russia severely criticised these plans with reference to its own security interests. When the new US President Barack Obama cancelled Bush’s plans, many believed the end of missile defence had come. This assessment proved to be wrong, however. The US remains interested in building a missile defence system, but has reassessed its priorities. First of all, Washington is now basing its plans on the more likely threat: Europe will be within reach of medium-range ballistic missiles from the Middle East before the US comes within range of intercontinental missiles. Secondly, since the entire territory of NATO is to come under the aegis of the new program, the alliance as such will accordingly be included in planning. It is hoped that this will strengthen coherence within the alliance. Third, the Obama administration is striving to build systems that offer greater flexibility as well as reliability. Therefore, the initial focus will be on sea-based defence missiles, which have already been partially introduced in the US armed forces. Landbased interceptor missiles would only be added at a later date. Fourth, attempts will be made from the start to involve Russia in building a missile defence architecture for the alliance. No decision has been made yet on the concrete design of the NATO missile defence architecture. It is already clear, however, that the US will carry the main burden. Washington is contributing the largest share of military hardware such as radar arrays and interceptors. In this respect, it is using the missile defence project to assert its leadership claim within the alliance. Elements contributed by the US must be integrated with the capabilities currently being developed by NATO to protect deployed troops, such as Patriot missile defence systems. NATO itself would only have to supply limited financing, currently estimated at around 200 million over a ten-year period. But this would only cover the cost of linking individual defence modules. In addition, the alliance members are invited to contribute national investment. In view of shrinking defence budgets, a number of states are reluctant to make such commitments. Another issue that remains to be resolved is the question of command-and-control www.geopolitics.in
authority. In case of a missile attack, the interceptor system would have to be activated within minutes. There would be no time for consultations. NATO commanders would have to be authorised in advance to launch the missiles. Due to the possibility of false alarms, some allies are unhappy with this solution.
THE MAIN THREAT: IRAN’S MISSILE PROGRAMME The necessity of the missile defence system is often justified with the increasing proliferation of offensive missiles and the technology associated with them. NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen points out that more than 30 countries have the technical capabilities to produce ballistic missiles. Therefore, NATO troops on deployment require protection against missile attacks in order to ensure their operability. For civilian populations, ballistic missiles mainly constitute a comprehensive threat if they are able to carry nuclear or chemical warheads. An opponent equipped with missiles and nuclear weapons is capable of causing a very great deal of damage within a very short time, even if the weapons used in an attack are not particularly accurate. Even if, due to Turkish concerns, NATO’s Strategic Concept does not name any names, Iran is currently the only country that could acquire the potential to threaten central Europe with nuclear-tipped missiles in the coming years. Already today, large parts of NATO’s southern flank and of NATO partner states are within reach of the missiles developed by Tehran. Currently, however, this does not imply any nuclear threat. The Shahab-3 missile, variants of which have been put into service with the Iranian armed forces, is believed to have a maximum range of about 2,000 km. It is still unclear whether this maximum range can also be achieved with a payload of about 1,000 kg, i.e., the estimated minimum weight of a nuclear warhead. The Shahab-3 is a singlestage liquid-propellant rocket based on the design of the North Korean Nodong, which is ultimately derived from Soviet Scud missile technology of the 1950s and 1960s. In November 2008, Iran conducted the first test of its new Sajil missile. Unlike the Shahab, this is a two-stage missile using a solid propellant. For a country like Iran, this constitutes a technological quantum leap, though the reliability of the system is questionable and its accuracy remains low. This has given Iran at least an entry to multi-stage
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technology, which is necessary for increasing operational range significantly beyond that of the Shahab programme. The most important advantage of the solid propellant is that the rocket boosters do not require timeconsuming fuelling before launch, but are available virtually whenever needed. However, Iran still lacks the industrial capacity for mass production of such missiles. Whether Iran will be able in the coming years to successfully continue its missile programme depends on factors that are difficult to assess, such as the effects of sanctions, the country’s general economic development, and the scope and quality of the assistance from abroad that Iran apparently continues to receive. It also remains unclear whether Tehran will complete the entire path towards the production of a nuclear capability. If a verifiable and sustainable diplomatic solution were found in the crisis over the Iranian nuclear programme, NATO would probably not terminate its missile defence programme entirely, but continue developing it at a diminished intensity and pace.
DEFICITS IN NUCLEAR DETERRENCE Considering its nuclear deterrence, why is NATO even planning to build a missile defence system? On the one hand, an accidental launch by Iran or another country cannot be excluded. This alone would not, however, justify building a missile defence system for the protection of the civilian population. On the other hand, the NATO missile defence system is intended to provide a damage-limitation option and to protect the civilian population in the coming years against the only state threat for which there are no efficient military provisions yet. Such a damage-limitation option could have a deescalating effect in case of a crisis. Hostile offensive capabilities would not necessarily have to be taken out through own offensive operations at an early stage. Also, retaliatory strikes could be conducted at a far lower level than if an attacker were to cause maximum harm against a completely unprotected civilian population. Finally, a missile defence system increases the attacker’s uncertainty regarding the potential success of his actions. Should Iran — or, subsequently, further states in the near and Middle East — acquire the ability to reach Central Europe with nuclear missiles, the nuclear capabilities of NATO or the US would certainly suffice to deter Tehran from any attack. However, in the future, the point may be not whether the alliance can deter Iran, but whether Iran is January 2011
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g GLOBALEYE capable of deterring NATO or the West in general. This question may arise if a military intervention in the Middle East is considered in order to counter undesirable Iranian influence or aggression that is incompatible with international law. In such a crisis, a nuclear escalation could not be excluded altogether, considering possible time pressure and lack of information on all sides involved. NATO would be well advised to acquire a damagelimitation option for such a contingency.
MISSILE DEFENCE: A SUBSTITUTE FOR NUCLEAR SHARING IN NATO? In the run-up to the NATO summit, there was much speculation over a possible linkage between the build-up of a missile defence system and nuclear disarmament. However, France successfully resisted deliberations that were gaining traction especially in Germany to reconsider the alliance defence programme as a long-term replacement for nuclear deterrence. In its strategic concept, NATO does profess the vision of a world free of nuclear weapons. The alliance would contemplate the use of nuclear forces only under extremely remote circumstances. However, as in earlier NATO concepts, deterrence resting on an appropriate mix of conventional and nuclear capabilities remains the core of the alliance strategy. As long as nuclear weapons exist, NATO will remain a nuclear alliance — this is the quintessence of the Lisbon document. At the same time, however, the intention is to create the necessary conditions for further reduction of the remaining US nuclear weapons in Europe. The precondition for this is Russia’s willingness to increase transparency regarding its nonstrategic nuclear weapons stationed in Europe and to redeploy them away from NATO’s borders. Against this background, the debate over the future of nuclear sharing within NATO can be expected to continue (cf. CSS Analysis no. 74). Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Italy maintain air forces that are designated for delivery of US nuclear weapons stationed in these countries. Furthermore, the US maintains aircraft of its own in Italy and Turkey — where US nuclear weapons are also stored — that can be used to deliver nuclear weapons. Germany, the Netherlands, and Belgium as well as some non-host nations such as Norway are advocating a rapid withdrawal of these armaments. Italy and Turkey are more reserved in this matter. While Rome fears a loss of influence, Ankara does not wish to remain www.geopolitics.in
the sole host nation in case of a withdrawal of US weapons from other NATO states. The question also remains whether, in a scenario where Iran acquires nuclear arms, a withdrawal of US nuclear capabilities would not induce Turkey to develop atomic weapons of its own. Many new NATO partners are also opposed to a complete withdrawal of US nuclear weapons from Europe. They fear that this might herald the end of the US military presence in Europe altogether — a development that they aim to prevent with a view to Russia, which they still perceive as problematic. Bearing in mind the deterioration of aging nuclear-capable European delivery systems, NATO is under pressure to decide. In view of continuously shrinking defence budgets, it is questionable whether both nuclear sharing and a NATO missile defence system will be affordable in the future. There are many indicators suggesting that the scales might tip in favour of a NATO missile defence system in the coming years. This would mean that Washington would still be bound to Europe by a major military project. Such an outcome would accord with the interests of many new NATO countries that wish to prevent a weakening of the alliance. Construction of a NATO missile defence system would liberate nuclear sharing from the burden of its role as the most important military anchor of the transatlantic relationship. Since it would be an alliance project, the partners of the US would also have a say in it. Furthermore, effective protection against a possible Iranian nuclear threat could prevent Turkey from developing nuclear weapons of its own.
COOPERATION WITH RUSSIA The main political challenge in the context of the planned missile defence shield consists in convincing Russia that the system is not directed against its interests. This is why NATO has invited Russia to participate. Russia’s President Dmitry Medvedev gave a fundamentally positive reply on this matter at the Lisbon summit. This creates great opportunities for both sides. Successful cooperation on missile defence would be an important element of comprehensive rapprochement between NATO and Russia, which has been explicitly mentioned as a goal by the alliance in Lisbon. In its Nuclear Posture Review, the Obama administration had already offered Russia a dialog on far-reaching cooperation in missile defence. The offer included integrating US and Russian sensors and
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conducting joint tests, manoeuvres, exercises, and simulations. This would make it possible to develop shared threat and situation analyses, possibly involving Russian radar installations. The US does not appear, however, to envisage joint command and control of the defence system. Rather, Washington wants the commander to be a NATO general — presumably, an American — as is already the case with the alliance’s integrated air defence system. The Russian position is an inconsistent one. On the one hand, Moscow wishes to go beyond the ideas proposed by the US and build a single integrated system rather than two conjoined defence arrays. On the other hand, there are fundamental reservations against cooperation. In particular, the Russian military still harbours suspicions that the US and NATO are still ultimately aiming to deprive Russia of its secondstrike capability. President Medvedev expressed this concern at a press conference in Lisbon. He made clear that Russia demands full equality when it comes to missile defence. Moscow is aware that its own capabilities are lagging far behind those of the US. This runs contrary to its claim to be treated as an equal in cooperation with the US. The question of command and control could grow into a stumbling block in this connection. Moscow’s vision of a joint command is still far removed from the alliance’s plans, which rather envisage separate operational commands.
OUTLOOK The project of a missile defence system for the entire alliance provides a great opportunity for NATO to demonstrate renewed unity. Nevertheless, controversial internal debates within the alliance on this issue may be expected in the future as well. Concerns over both the cost and the efficiency of the missile shield will be raised. The problem of the future command structure for the defence system will also continue to preoccupy the alliance. Mainly, however, the future of the project will depend on whether Russia can be convinced to cooperate. If that succeeds, missile defence will also have made a significant contribution to rapprochement between the former opponents. Otherwise, those NATO members for whom good relations with Russia are extremely important will view the NATO missile defence project with scepticism. (The article has been excerpted from International Relations and Security Network, ETH Zurich) January 2011
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IAF OFFICERS RECEIVE BREVETS THE INDIAN Air Force recently got a new batch of officers with 171 newly-commissioned Flying Officers graduating from the Air Force Academy (AFA), at Dundigal near Hyderabad. Air Chief Marshal P V Naik reviewed the combined graduation parade and awarded the President’s Commission to graduating Flight Cadets that included 39
women. Four Indian Navy officers and one Indian Coast Guard officer also received their flying brevets (Wings) at the graduation parade from the Air Chief. Addressing the newlycommissioned IAF officers, the Air Chief impressed upon the technological transformation of the Air Force and exhorted the
young officers to acquire full understanding and knowledge of application of new technology to exploit the true potential of aerospace power. Flying Officer Nandeep CS, who commanded the parade, was awarded the President’s Plaque and the Chief of the Air Staff ‘Sword of Honour’ for standing first in the Pilot Course.
CHECK `3,300-CR TO MAOISTS
THE CENTRAL plan to pump in Rs 3,300 crore over the next 16 months in micro projects in
Naxal-hit districts has been aimed at addressing the developmental deficit and controlling the expansion and consolidation of Naxal influence. Home Minister P Chidambaram unveiled the ambitious integrated action plan recently that will give 60 districts a free hand to spend `25 crore over the next four months. The districts would similarly get `30 crore each next year. However, similar develop-
1,000+ MORE THAN 1,000 people have been killed in the last decade in firing by the Border Security Force (BSF) along the IndiaBangladesh border, according to a report by Human Rights Watch released recently. The report, “Trigger Happy — Excessive Use of Force by Indian Troops at the Bangladesh Border”, documents the experiences of families whose members were killed in these firings as well as instances of torture, arbitrary detention and
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KILLED ALONG BANGLADESH BORDER
indiscriminate use of force on people living in areas along the border. The research was conducted by two NGOs: MASUM in
JAWANS HAVE KSHAMTA
ment schemes have not succeeded in the past since a major chunk of the funds remained unused. Also, questions have been raised about the efficacy of the funds that were shown to have been spent. A study earlier this year indicated that expenditure on health, education, childcare, electricity, roads, water, was significantly lower in most of the 33 districts hit by Naxalism.
Kolkata and ODHIKAR in Dhaka. The report has recommended that the government ensure that security forces do not use indiscriminate force when checking cross-border crimes. Said Meenakshi Ganguly, the South Asia Director of Human Rights Watch, “It is true that a lot of illegal activities, including smuggling and trafficking, occur on the India-Bangladesh border, but smuggling is not a crime that warrants the death penalty.” On its part, the BSF has justified the killings citing self-defence reasons or that the suspects were evading arrest.
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THE FIRST batch of 160 jawans of the Indian Army under the project Kshamta, a unique skill-building initiative undertaken in association with Microsoft India, has shown how public and private partnerships (PPP) can work. Project Kshmata aims at training another 1,000 jawans in Phase II. Kshamta, meaning capability, is a 110-hour training programme consisting of 30 hours of the Microsoft Digital Literacy Skills Programme and 80 hours of spoken English training. The Indian Army is over 1.1 million in strength, third largest in the world, of which over 50,000 soldiers retire every year. Microsoft and the Indian Army signed an MoU on December 8, 2009 for Project Kshamta. The model proposed and approved by the Indian Army is designed to train more than 1,000 master trainers in India, across 48 Army training units, who will in turn train and certify fellow jawans in their units.
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OFFICERS SHORT IN ARMED FORCES
WOMEN OFFICERS IN ARMED FORCES
THE THREE wings of the armed forces are facing a shortage of over 15,000 officers, Lok Sabha was informed during the recent session. “In Army, there is a shortage of 12,510 officers. The Navy is short of 1,747 officers and the IAF
is short of 1,016 officers of its sanctioned strength,” Defence Minister A K Antony said in a written reply to a Lok Sabha query. He said the authorised strength of officers in the Army was 47,864 officers, in the Navy 9,719 while the IAF had a sanc-
11,000+ ACRES OF DEFENCE LAND ENCROACHED
IN THE backdrop of scams like Adarsh dogging defence lands across the country, the Defence Ministry has now admitted that around 11,052 acres of its 17.30 lakh acres of land across the country has been encroached or occupied illegally. Leading the list of states, where the maximum number of encroachments has taken place, is Uttar Pradesh (2,949 acres), followed closely by Maharashtra (2,285 acres), as per information provided by Defence Minister A K Antony in a written reply to Rajya Sabha recently. www.geopolitics.in
THERE ARE 6,749 women officers working in the armed forces, with over one-third of them inducted during the last three years, Lok Sabha was informed recently. “2,591 women officers have been inducted into the armed forces in the last three years and a total of 6,749 of them are working in the Services,” Defence Minister A K Antony said in a written reply to a Lok Sabha query. He said the highest numbers of officers were with the Army followed by the Army Medical Corps and the Indian Air Force.
tioned strength of 12,211 officers. Antony said the shortage of officers was attributable to a number of factors including tough selection procedures, difficult service conditions coupled with perceived high degree of risk involved in service career.
961 acres jammu & kashmir
722 acres 494 418 acres acres
107 acres
2,949 acres
Punjab Haryana Delhi
Rajasthan
456 acres
Uttar Pradesh
617 acres
Assam
Bihar West Bengal
Madhya Pradesh
Gujrat
304 acres
448 acres
406 acres
Maharashtra
Some others in the 2,285 list include Haryana acres (961 acres), J&K (722 acres), Assam (617 acres), Punjab (494 acres), Bihar (456 acres), Madhya Pradesh (448 acres), Rajasthan (418 acres), West Bengal (406 acres), Gujarat (304 acres) and Delhi (107 acres).
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HUNT FOR ANTI-TANK MISSILE IS ON The Indian Army has been looking for an anti-tank missile that is man-portable and easy-to-fire. While the USmade Javelin was test-fired by the Army successfully, ROHIT SRIVASTAVA found out that the DRDO-developed Nag was the most-advanced currently available. The Nag, however, is a vehicle-based missile and, therefore, not on the Army’s top list
T
ANKS IN modern land warfare are the most lethal offensive asset in any army. They have the capability to break through the enemy defences and penetrate deep within enemy territory in a very short time with inbuilt heavy firepower. The psychological impact of marching tanks on the enemy is enormous. The visuals of American M1A1 Abraham cruising across the Iraq-Saudi desert made the Iraqi forces abandon their
posts hastening their defeat. To check the onslaught of tank columns during the Second World War, anti-tank weapons started to be developed. These measures, which began with the anti-tank grenade, now comprise of anti-tank mines, rocket-propelled grenade, mortar shells, artilleries and ammunition of different kinds and anti-tank missiles.
TANK WARFARE During the First World War, the British came
SEARCH IS ON: Indian Army is on the look out to order anti-tank missiles with unique characteristics
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g SPECIALREPORT up with an innovative idea to develop an armoured vehicle, which could break the deadlock of trench warfare. They came up with the tank, which could manoeuvre easily on the plains and was capable of crossing trenches and also had firepower of the artillery for attack and self-defence. This changed the course of warfare forever. The static warfare of trenches was changed into the maneuver warfare of today. Third generation warfare is characterised by Blitzkrieg — bypassing enemy lines with speed and accuracy and destroying them from the rear. The tanks plays an important role in this. The whole concept of Blitzkrieg was woven around the tanks in an infantry support role where their speed was increased. Along with that there was the support of indirect fire of long-range artillery guns pounding enemy lines. To check the onslaught from tanks which were immune to the guns available with infantry special weapons began to emerge, like anti-tank grenades, armour-piercing rifles and mines. All of these are still relevant in warfare in anti-tank roles.
FIRST-GENERATION MISSILES During the 50s, the armies across the Western world began developing wire-guided missile against tanks. These where manuallyguided missiles, where an operator would guide the missile to its target through a joystick. These were called Manual Command to Line of Sight or MCLOS-guided missiles. The operator had the dual task of optically observing the target and simultaneously guiding the missile through a joystick. The accuracy of these missiles was less than 25 per cent and required enormous training. It also required the operator to be static and within the line of sight of a tank, which made them vulnerable to counter-attack.
INDIA IS CURRENTLY OPERATING FRENCH-MADE MILAN AND RUSSIAN KONKURS seeker devices, which would follow the laser beam designating the target. Called semiactive as the operator and missile both were involved in homing. The accuracy of the Anti-Tank Guided Missiles (ATGMs) jumped to 50 per cent with the semi-active guidance system. To top it all, there was a quantum jump in the efficiency and lethality of anti-tank missiles from the last generation. The radio-guided missile was susceptible to jamming and the wire-guided could hit targets as far as the wire could go. The wire-guided had serious limitations in vegetation as the wire would get entangled and break. But the wire-guided missiles could avoid counter-measures like chaff and flares. These also required the operator to be well skilled and trained. The typical range of the ATGM varied from two to seven km depending upon the guidance system.
THIRD-GENERATION MISSILES This generation missiles are also called the fire-and-forget missiles. The missile is required to be locked on to the target before launching it towards the target and thereafter the missile-active
guidance system does the rest. The accuracy of these is almost 100 per cent if the system doesn’t fail. The survivability of the tank depends upon its armour protection. The guidance system of this generation is based on infrared imager, laser and W-band radars. This generation is more susceptible to electronic counter-measures. These measures are the electro-optical jammer that disrupts the laser beams, which designates the target and also an active protection system, which uses the Doppler radar system where an incoming missile is located and protective rocket is fired, which detonates near the missile and destroys it. The third-generation missiles come with different types of warheads designed to penetrate armour. The advancement in the armour of tanks has impacted upon the development of the warhead to penetrate them. Most of these are portable devices, like the Javeline. These systems are very easy to operate and don’t require very long training like first and second generation missiles. The operator needs to fire and then move to a safe point.
RANGE For any ATGM to engage tanks effectively, its operator must be beyond the range of the tanks that are generally three km away. Every ATGM should have a range above three km. with the capability to increase range. However, there are two important issues. The first is accuracy. The battlefield being dynamic and uneven, the long range creates problem in targeting. Secondly, there is the portability problem. A short-range missile could be man-portable as in case of most of the second-generation with wire guidance but generally longer-range ones like Hellfire are vehicle or heliborne.
WARHEAD SECOND-GENERATION MISSILES To overcome the shortcomings of MCLOS, the second-generation Semi Automatic Command to Automatic Line of Sight or SACLOS was developed. These required the operator to just keep tracking the missile through a sighting device and the device would then guide the missile to its target through radio or electronic signals. This kind of missile still needed active guidance from operators like continuous tracking of the target; thus the operator could not leave the spot and yet was vulnerable. This generation has semi-active guidance system. Here the missile had a homing device which seeks signal in form of radio waves or electronic signal through wire and later versions had www.geopolitics.in
THE LATEST ORDER: 4,100 Milan-2T missiles
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There has been an explosion in the warhead design in the last couple of decades to keep up with the simultaneous development in armour. To effectively protect the tank and its crew, tank armour must counter a wide variety of anti-tank threats. These include composite armour, which is a mix of ceramic, plastic and metal and steel armour, a strong plate of steel and reactive armour that reacts with the weapon to reduce the impact of the projectile. To counter these threats, the High Explosive Anti Tank (HEAT) warheads are employed. HEAT warheads began to emerge post-WWII to penetrate January 2011
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READY-TO-USE: After completing its final validation trials, Nag is expected to join Indian Army in 2011 steel armours. To counter these HEAT warheads, composite armour was developed, which is lighter in weight but very thick while it reduces the speed of the HEAT warhead. To defeat these, the tandem charge warheads are employed, which has two or more charges, the first charge penetrates the soft part of the armour and subsequent charges penetrate the hard part of the armour.
INDIAN PERSPECTIVE Media reports suggest there is a shortfall of around 44000 ATGM in the Indian inventory. The sanctioned strength of ATGM is around 81000. India is currently operating Frenchmade Milan and Russian Konkurs. Both are second generation laser-based wire-guided missiles. Milan has a range of around two km and Konkurs longer with a four km range. Being second-generation ATGMs they are susceptible to jamming. When such cases arise, the operator has to take control of the missile and guide it to the target. This decreases the accuracy of missile to the first-generation level. Bharat Dynamics Limited is license producing these missiles systems. Both of these missiles are surface-to-surface version and cannot be operated from helicopters. India needs an indigenous missile system that can have both air-launched and surfacelaunched versions. Towards this end, the DRDO has been developing Nag ATGM since 1983, which has undergone the last phase of test recently by user. The Nag is part of the Integrated Guided Missile Development Programme by Defence Research and Development Organisation at the cost of `300 crore. The first test flight of the missile was done around 1990. The missile is third generation fire-and-forget with imaging www.geopolitics.in
infra-red (IIR) sensor-based seeker and top — attack mode — the missile hits tanks most vulnerable turret portion by flying up and falling vertically down at 90 degrees over the tank. The range of Nag is around four-six km and operational from helicopter and NAMICA - Nag missile carrier, a converted BMP-2 Sarath, which can carry 12 missiles in ready-to-launch mode and also has IIR seekers installed over them. The heli-borne version of Nag with a range of seven kilometres to be operated from advanced light helicopters and Light Combat Helicopter is being developed, called HELINA. The Indian Army has ordered for 443 Nag for `335 crore even before the test results are out. The requirement of Indian Army for ATGM is very high as Army has already ordered for 4100 Milan and 15000 Konkurs M, both are second-generation ATGMs, and have been ordered in last two years to bolsters Indian infantry anti-tank capability against Pakistan which has been improving its mechanised forces with T- 85, T-80 and Al Khalids. The shortfall in Indian
JAVELIN HAS A MAINTENANCEFREE SHELF LIFE OF TEN YEARS
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mechanised and armour forces is also needed to be seen in this context. India is still awaiting the Arjun MBT and T-72 modernisation. The latest procurement order of Milan is for 2T version, which has extended range and with tandem charge, to successfully engage the tanks with composite armours. India has been forced to buy these missiles at higher cost even when the latest third-generation missiles are available to continue with commonality in training and launch systems. These systems were to be replaced by Nag but delays in its development derailed the planning of Indian Army. To fill the gap between requirement and capability, India is buying the third-generation ‘fire-and-forget’ shoulder-fired Javelin ATGM, developed and produced by Raytheon and Lockheed Martin. The first batch of these would be off-the-shelf procurement and thereafter will be license-produced after due technology transfer. India is procuring Javelin through foreign military sales. John Patterson, Raytheon spokesman, said, "The Javelin Joint Venture is fully supporting the USG in its efforts to quickly field the Javelin Close Combat Weapon system to the Indian Army. The Javelin system is currently deployed in Afghanistan with both the US and UK forces, making the Javelin introduction to the Indian Army a natural fit for operational interoperability and employment. The Javelin Joint Venture has a history of working with trusted partners around the world, and would welcome the opportunity to work with India. This is a government-to-government sale, and therefore any specific inquires need to be addressed to the respective governments." Javelin has a maintenance-free shelf life of ten years. It’s a man-portable 22 kg system operated by single individual. It can be reloaded in 15 seconds after firing of missiles, which takes 30 seconds to locate, lock and launch the missile to any target within the range of 2.5 km through its tandem charged warhead. So, within a minute, two targets can be engaged. The missile is lock-on-before-launch version and is based on passive IR seeker, meaning it follows the heat emission from the target for guidance. During Yudh Abhyas 2010 in Alaska, the Indian Army test-fired Javelin ATGM successfully. The deal is expected to be signed in coming months between India and the US. Sources in DRDO consider Nag to be the most advanced ATGM currently available and is almost unjammable. The Army requires system that is man-portable for its infantry units, whereas Nag is vehiclebased missile. January 2011
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DEF BIZ
THE FMS ROUTE Exporting military products through ‘foreign military sales’ scheme benefits the United States immensely. But does it really help importers like India?
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LOOKING FOR LIGHT BULLET PROOF VEHICLES T HE INDIAN Army has recently issued request for information (RFI) for Light Bullet Proof Vehicles (LBPV) for counter-insurgency (CI) operations. The vehicles will be employed in movement of sections or units. The large number of casualties in any CI operations is during movement of troops or while getting down from vehicles. That is the time when the forces are most vulnerable. To minimise the number of casualties, forces across the globe are using armoured vehicles. The requirement sent out by Indian Army states that the vehicle should be capable of
moving five fully-loaded soldiers. The vehicle is also expected to allow the “effective use of weapons while on the move”. The vehicle must also be able to “operate on unmetalled roads”. These are some of the most basic requirements of any armoured CI vehicle. Generally, the armed forces from the West employ heavy armoured personnel carriers (APC) or infantry combat vehicles. These are basically meant for infantry movement during wars operated by mechanised force brigades. The US and its allies use the ‘Striker’ APC in Iraq and Afghanistan. The Indian Army doesn’t deploy its BMP II (Boyevaya
Mashina Pekhoty II, Indian APC) in any of its CI operation, as these heavy vehicles look intimidating and doesn’t cut a good image of the armed forces among the local population. Keeping in line with the narrow alleys and congested towns and cities of both the Northeast and Kashmir, India has been operating light armoured motor vehicles. These are basically commercial (Light Multirole Vehicles) LMVs with four wheel drives, generally used in passenger transport. These vehicles are customised to suit the operational requirements of the Army. Keeping this in mind, the RFI clearly states the operational Continued on page 20
OPERATIONAL REQUIREMENT: A vehicle for military use
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INDIA PLANS TO BUY MINE SCATTERING SYSTEM THE INDIAN Army has shown interest in acquiring 120 Vehicle Based Minelet Scattering System (VBMSS). The Request for Information (RFI) was recently released in this regard. The Army wants VBMSS to come with the High Mobility Vehicle (HMV) 6×6, to provide the system with the desired mobility on the plains, deserts, semi-deserts, etc. The system is required to disperse 400 mines at varying densities. The scattering is done at different density depending upon the requirement. The factors like size of area being mined, topography, vegetation and the size of enemy column are taken into consideration before deciding the density of mining in any given area. The RFI clearly asks for the control system where single and multiple tubes can be used to deploy mines. It also requires the system to deploy mines on both sides of the vehicle and also at the rear end at a distance of a minimum of 50 metres and must also scatter mines at a range of 25-75 metres. This will help in rapid deployment in the range of 150 metres at one time. In the desert and plains of north India, the VBMSS will provide the capability to mine a large area that in turn will halt larger columns of enemy. The VBMSS will be reloadable in 40 minutes by its crew of two. The control unit of the launcher would “display” the status of each launcher, the record number of mines dispensed, mention the co-ordinates of the area in which the mines are being dispensed, store and process data for minefield recording. It has been seen that keeping manual record of mines accurately is very difficult and a slow process. The demining process becomes very difficult due to these inaccuracies. This system could solve these issues in many ways but the accuracy could remain an issue. Yet, an electronically recorded and stored data will always be handier for the forces. The VBMSS system is required to have a field-settable Self-Destruction (SD) periods/back up Self-Deactivation (SDA) periods of the anti tank mines and indicator incorporated in the mine to indicate that it is fully deactivated and safe after expiry of SDA period. The mines should be equipped with anti-lift (a device arranged to detonate the mine), immediate arming of mines after
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DE-MINING TACTICS: Mine detection is done at different densities depending upon the requirement, and (below) a mine landing (mines become activated immediately after deployment), long shelf life of the mines and able to survive under 100mm of water. Anti-tank mines should be capable of penetrating armour plating of 50mm of Rolled Hardened Armour (RHA). The scattering system is meant to improve the defensive capability of Indian Army. The fast rate of scattering will provide any retreating column and defence of strategic assets in a very short duration very accurately with minimum manpower deployment. These systems can be deployed at the corps/division level and will save crucial time during wars.
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It may be noted that landmines play a very crucial role in the land warfare. They are defensive and harassing in nature. Minefields can halt or slow down enemy troop movements to a great extent and inflict heavy damage on the enemy without risking men and material. India, a non-signatory to the Ottawa treaty that bans use of landmines in warfare and insurgency, considers landmines a tool in its military operations. The Indian Army deployed around 1,000 per sq km around the Pakistan border after Operation Parakram. Later, the Indian Army had to do the de-mining at immense costs. Reports suggest that more than 1,000 died due to these landmines (2001-09). Laying mines in defensive formation is a slow process and took weeks during Parakaram. During a war, retreating columns would require quick deployment of landmines across a large surface area. To achieve this objective, vehicle and aircraftbased automatic mines dispersal systems are employed. In addition, armies also employ artillery shells to disperse land mines. The rate of dispersal through rockets and artillery shells is not as fast as the vehicle/aircraft-based systems.
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ON A WAR-FOOTING: The Army requires the vehicle which should have 360 degrees observation and effective use of weapons containing up to 100 grams of Penta-Erythritol Tetra-Nitrate (PETN) explosive. The vehicles should also have firing ports on all the sides to give all-round strike capability to the troops. Enough space is required for soldiers to use their personal automatic weapons. The firing port when not in use should also have the same level of protection to that of the sides of the vehicles. The vehicle must have a hatch at top with a suitable mounting for the in-service Light Machine Gun (LMG). The mounting should permit firing of the LMG through 360 degrees while providing protection to the firer from all
A MATTER OF PROTECTION: A vehicle with all-d direction protection to the firer is necessary
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directions. There should also be arrangements to prevent a grenade from being lobbed through the hatch when open. It seems the Indian Army has planned to have flexibility in the use of the vehicles across the nation if and when the need arises and also foresees the expansion of its CI role. For transporting these vehicles when requirement arises, these must be transportable through rail “standard rakes without necessity of Over Dimensional Container (ODC) Clearance and in an in-service transport aircraft (IL-76)”. The transportability by standard rakes will save time and cost. Air transportability will also ensure the vehicle to be transported at a very short time to any part of the nation including bases in the interiors. LBPVs must have “environmental control arrangements, which should be capable of maintaining the ambient temperature in the cabin between +22°C and +25°C. The vehicle must also have auto-defrost capability on all glass panes (including windshield, window and side glasses)” and must also have “adequate safety measures against accidental locking”. The acquisition of LBPV under the specification mentioned will have substantial impact over the operational capability of the Indian Army in future CI operations and will take the transportation to the next level which at present uses armoured commercial vehicles which are short of the requirements. With that the Indian Army will move into the arena of customised vehicles for specific uses. January 2011
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requirement: the vehicles wanted will be specifically for military use. Recently, some of the companies in India have come with very innovative indigenous products, which were displayed at the Defence Expo 2010. The Army requires the vehicle to “provide 360 degrees observation all around the vehicle”. It should “ergonomically and comfortably seat five soldiers” with full battle load and driver. The soldiers should be comfortable in observation and effective use of weapons. The RFI also points out the protection level of the vehicles. The vehicle must comply with the NIJ III standard (National Institute of Justice of USA, Standard III). The American Department of Justice through the National Institute of Justice has set the standard of armouring based on the capability to defend against weapons. Level three is the level where the armour can provide protection against automatic assault rifles like M16, AK47 and machine guns like M80 or equivalent. In terms of bullet size, the armour should be able to provide protection against 9.6 g (148 gr) 7.62x51mm NATO M80 ball bullets and below. This standard is desired for the top, sides, windshield and side glasses. These parts during the movement and otherwise come under direct fire and since a majority of insurgents these days use assault rifles, this level of protection is adequate for the vehicle. Although not adequate for grenades and land mines like clamour mines, the level is considered sufficient for urban CI ops, especially in J&K and the Northeast where landmines and Claymores are not used. The bottom and undercarriage, which generally have to deal with stray bombs and grenades generally scattered by insurgents to deny the forces swift movement, should be capable of affording protection against the blast of a hand grenade
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NOTICE TO DEFENCE FIRMS THE DEFENCE Ministry has issued show-cause notices to the four foreign and three Indian armament companies to explain why they should not be blacklisted after being named in the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) FIR against former Ordnance Factories Board (OFB) Chief Sudipto Ghosh in a corruption case in May 2009. The foreign firms in the dock are Israeli Military Industries (IMI), Singapore Technology, BBT Poland and Media Architects Singapore, while the Indian ones are HYT Engineering, T S Kissan & Co and R K Machine Tools. This was stated by the Defence Minister A K Antony in a written reply to Lok Sabha recently. The CBI had issued a chargesheet against Ghosh, T S Kissan and R K Machine Tools, among others, till now. In respect of the other companies, the CBI report indicates there is prima facie or circumstantial evidence of payment of illegal gratification to Ghosh. The matter is under investigation.
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NEW POLICY
INDIA’S DEFENCE ACQUISITION COUNCIL (DAC) has just put its seal on two policies, a new version of the Defence Procurement Procedure and a new Defence Production Policy. The DAC is set to formally approve the new policies within the next few weeks. Indian media quoting from the draft policy said: “Only those weapon systems/platforms will be procured from abroad which cannot be
made/developed within the country in specified timeframes to meet critical operational requirements. All such projects will necessarily include transfer of technology, unless exceptions are required for specific reasons, to ensure subsequent generations of the weapon systems are developed indigenously.” The production policy allows for government funding of new technology projects up to 80 per cent of the cost by domestic private companies. The approval procedures for development/integration/make of new defence systems indigenously are being “further simplified”, according to the policy. The production policy says domestic funding will apply to “strategic and critical technologies” to “reduce vulnerabilities” in case of sanctions and denials.
NAL FOR PRIVATE PARTNERS NATIONAL AEROSPACE Laboratories (NAL), the Bengaluru-based nodal centre for the design of the Regional Transport Aircraft (RTA), is set to issue expressions of interest (EoIs) to invite potential partners for the project from the private sector, from both India and abroad, according to NAL Director AR Upadhya. “The Centre has given us a directive to design a framework to form a joint venture (JV) for carrying out the RTA project through public-private partnership. We have already drafted the EoI, which will be issued in a month's time. The JV will be for design, development and manufacture of the RTAs. It ( JV ) could be two separate entities too. Roping in cost-sharing partners within a segment or a particular activity ... that has to be looked at,” Upadhya said. In a recent interview to an English daily,
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he said the government had given NAL the mandate to do a one-year feasibility study on the configuration definition and systems definition for the national aircraft for regional connectivity. Stating that NAL would submit the feasibility report to the government by April 2011, Upadhya said that around 120 airfields, each with 3,000-5,000-sft runway, had been identified across the country for facilitating landing of these smaller aircraft. About 50 per cent of the country’s population live close to these smaller airfields. So, there is a big requirement for the establishment of indigenous aircraft manufacturing industry, he said. “Of the 450 airfields that the country has at present, only 70 are operational. There is a potential to convert the remaining airfields into airports,” Upadhya said, adding that India required 1,300 aircraft by 2015, of which 240 were expected to be RTAs to connect smaller towns and cities.
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NAVY TO GET LPDs
THE INDIAN Navy has been given the approval for acquisition of four landing platform docks (LPDs) to transport and land various elements of amphibious forces to support shore operations. The amphibious warships, with helipads and capacity to move a large number of troops and tanks or humanitarian aid, would be a match to the second largest combat ship in the Indian Navy's flotilla, INS Jalashwa (earlier USS Trenton).
The approval for LPDs has been given by the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) “Buy and Make Indian” clause of the the Defence Procurement Policy (DPP-9). "Under the 'Buy and Make Indian' category, the Defence Ministry would invite proposals from those Indian industries that have requisite financial and technical capabilities to enter into joint ventures and also absorb technology and undertake indigenous manufacture of the warships," Chief of the Indian Navy Admiral Nirmal Verma said recently. The Navy has also invited information from the global vendors for supply of Landing Craft Mechanised (LCMs) that can be carried by amphibious warships to land troops or tanks during assaults on the coastline. So far, the Indian Navy has four LCMs, which were bought during the acquisition of Jalashwa from the US. The Navy is looking for LCMs ,which are able to carry 150 troops with gear or a T-90 or T-72 tank from ship to shore.
‘OUR OFFSET POLICY IS COMPLICATED’ NONE OTHER than Indian Air Force (IAF) Vice-Chief Air Marshal Barbora has criticised the public and private defence industry for lacklustre performance in the aerospace sector and attributed the slow pace of indigenisation to complicated defence policy, especially on offsets. Speaking at the fifth international conference on Energising Indian Aerospace Industry organised by the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) recently, Barbora said a “well-defined offset policy is the need of the day”. Barbora said that an estimated $20 billion (`90,800 crore) was “hanging” to be absorbed by Indian industry. And the figure is likely to escalate up to $40 billion by the end of the year. “Our offset policy is very nascent. It is complicated and foreign vendors find it difficult to understand. I know a company, which has submitted its (offset) proposal at least 20 times. It results in delays in procurement,” he said and added: “Certain countries like Brazil, Spain have welldefined offset policies. We should take good www.geopolitics.in
points from them. We started late and we are also slowing down.” Under the defence procurement policy, it is mandatory for overseas firms securing Indian defence contracts to outsource 30 per cent of the defence deal to Indian companies as offset works. The offset obligation applies to all capital acquisition categorized as Buy (global) or Buy and Make with transfer of technology, where the estimated cost of the procurement proposal is $67 million and above. India annually imports about 80 per cent of aerospace products, including aircraft and parts. Barbora added that current foreign direct investment limit of 26 per cent in the defence sector was a “restricting factor”. “Foreign companies are reluctant to offer and transfer cuttingedge technologies because of lack of management role in Indian companies,” he said. Reminding Indian scientists that “time and tide wait for no one,” the IAF Vice-Chief added: “By the time you come up with something, it’s redundant.”
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US-INDIA DEFENCE TIES WORRY ISRAEL
IAI President Itzhak Nissan ISRAEL IS concerned over losing its largest defence market to close ally US, which has reached an understanding with India that could result in billions of dollars of American defence sales to New Delhi, according to a media report. “(US President) Obama is embracing the Indian Prime Minister and 40 to 50 billion USDs worth of deals are being wrapped up in one shot,” Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) President Itzhak Nissan told Middle East Newsline adding, “We don’t have such personalities.” Israeli defence companies have been urging their Defence Ministry to ease export controls arguing that the new controls, demanded by the United States in 2005, were hampering marketing and technology transfer required to maintain exports. India is Israel's largest defence market accounting for almost 50 per cent of Israeli sales. IAI dominates the Israeli defence presence in New Delhi and is about to conclude a $1.1 billion project of supplying three Phalcon airborne early-warning systems to the Indian Air Force.
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CONTRACTS FOR TATA’S DEF FACILITY BRAHMOS THE RUSSIAN-INDIAN joint venture BrahMos Aerospace Ltd. has signed new contracts on supplies of BrahMos missiles till 2017. Under the contracts, missiles will be supplied to the Indian Air Force, the Navy and the Indian Army. It is also agreed that if India intends to acquire new Russian nonatomic submarines, Russia's Rubin Central Design Bureau for Marine Engineering will prepare variants to be equipped with the BrahMos missiles. It is understood that India intends to acquire six non-atomic sub-
marines. The Indian Navy will put out a tender to purchase submarines with a standard power plant. Russian agency Rosoboronexport said it offered the Amur1650 submarine to participate in the Navy’s tender for six non-nuclear submarines. Established in 1998, BrahMos Aerospace, a joint Indian-Russian venture, produces and markets BrahMos supersonic missiles, whose sea-based and landbased versions have been successfully tested and put into service with the Indian Army and Navy. Analysts estimate that India could purchase up to 1,000 BrahMos missiles for its armed forces in the next decade, and export 2,000 to other countries during the same period.
NOVA INTEGRATED Systems Ltd, subsidiary of Tata Sons Limited, is developing facility in Aerospace and Precision Engineering Special Economic Zone (SEZ) Adibatla, Andhra Pradesh. The main Greenfield facilities for radar, missile and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) are being planned and will be ready by 2011. Nova is bringing in and developing cutting-edge technology to India in this strategic sector where indigenous capability is desired. Nova Integrated Systems has been set up with a view to achieving self-reliance in defence and aerospace systems, and will focus on the manufacture and integration of systems, sub systems, and, accessories for missiles, radar, UAV, electro-optics, electronic warfare and homeland security systems. NOVA has already set up the interim integration and testing facilities for radar and electro-optics at Hyderabad. UAV, electronic measures and surveillance systems are the major tactical component of today’s warfare. Till now India is majorly dependent on imported systems, Nova plans to provide cutting edge solution in this sector.
DESIGN CONTRACT FOR FGFA RUSSIA AND India have agreed about the estimated cost of a design contract for their joint fifth-generation fighter aircraft project (FGFA) at $295 million, Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) Chairman Ashok Nayak told Russian news agency RIA Novosti in an interview recently. "The cost of preliminary design is estimated at $295 million. The work is expected to be complete within 18 months," Nayak said. Russia's Sukhoi and India's Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) agreed in early 2010 to jointly develop a fifth-generation fighter jet based on the prototype T-50 design. India confirmed
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that it had finalised a draft contract at a meeting with Russia in early October. Nayak said the contract could be signed by the representatives of India's
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HAL and Russia's United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) during a visit by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to India on December 20-22. The two sides agreed to develop both a single-seat and a twoseat versions of the aircraft by 2016, focussing on the singleseat version in the initial stages of development. The costs will be shared equally between Russia and India. The first Russian prototype T-50 made its maiden flight in January 2010. The new fighter aircraft is expected to enter service with the Indian Air Force by 2020.
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QUICK IMPACT BUT AT WHAT COST ? The US “Foreign Military Sale” scheme has become the major armaments provider for many nations, including India. ABHIJIT BHATTACHARYYA argues that while the scheme is certainly advantageous for the beleaguered US economy, it can be good for India only on a short-term or temporary basis. In the long run, it will ensure the loss to indigenous enterprise to be self-sufficient in defence and the country cannot afford that MURKY DEAL: Foreign military sales scheme is far-fetched aspiration for India. Seen in the picture is US Army M107 Howitzer
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NE OF the murky and opaque of all international businesses is the financial transaction of arms between buyer and seller, the occasional high profile defence of its being “government-to-government transaction” notwithstanding. “Governmentto-government” argument will hold good only if, and when, the manufacturing unit/supplier of the transacted product also belongs to the seller government thereby justifying its action and existence as being that of the government. Thus, there exists two sets of arms manufacturers, private and government. Before the demise of the USSR, virtually all shipyards and aviation factories belonged to the state. Hence, India could successfully pretend to defend her actions while buying Soviet-made everything; from tank to tanker and aircraft to rotorcraft. It was virtually the unsaid and unwritten Soviet counterpart of America’s “Foreign Military Sale” scheme, which bypasses the complex bidding process like quotation, tender, etc. Thus, ever since the Indo-Soviet security pact concluded on August 9, 1971, Moscowmade machines had a field day of being a monopoly supplier in which price of transaction could never be doubted or questioned owing to “government-to-government” transaction. It was an exclusive, confidential and mutual privilege between the buyer and seller and hence beyond the gaze of public and beyond scrutiny of the people. No one dared question the method and methodology of the financial transaction because there was no private player involved in the deal; hence “no possibility” of going through third party assistance or help. The Indo-Soviet arms deals of the 20th century were the precursor to the present US scheme of foreign military sales through which Washington DC’s arms are now transferred to specific and friendly countries and a “strategic partner” like India. However, US “foreign military sales” programme manages government-to-government sales and are usually backed by “foreign military financing”, thereby providing grants and loans to help foreign customers (countries) purchase weapons and equipment produced by US companies but sold through their government. The other important but smaller fully-paid purchases by foreign customers is also overseen by the unit of foreign military sales. The main characteristic of the foreign military sales programme is that the foreign military financing scheme does not provide any cash grants to foreign countries; it only pays for sale of the stipulated goods or
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SORRY PLIGHT: Israel’s fighter-making capability has totally been phased out because of US FMS scheme services through foreign military sales or direct commercial sales. The USA being the sole superpower, its foreign military programme, supported by foreign military financing, reaches out to 70-plus countries across the globe. However, there was a time, at the height of the Cold War, in the 1970s, when more than 80 countries “benefited” from the US foreign military sales scheme. The USA now is in dire need to explore new markets to sell military hardware to bring about a balance to her shooting unemployment figures and sustaining the traditional military edge over friends and foes alike. In fact, the lifeline of American domination over the outside world and a key source of technology development to a great extent rests on the use of indigenous US military hardware and extensive application thereof around the globe: from South America to South Korea and New Zealand to Iceland. The idea is to infuse and implement the policy of “interoperability”, which implies that if the same types of US-made weapons are used by several friendly states as clients, Washington DC being the producer thereof, would automatically enjoy the confidence and have an upper hand thereby ensuring status quo of her being the leader and super power of the “free world”. It is a smart and clever way of getting oneself positioned as numero uno amidst the group of fighting and
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feuding client states. Clients may quarrel but the common leader supplies the common fighting tools. It is business as usual for the USA as the producer to make profit through foreign military sales across the board. Perhaps the best and one of the most successful of all US foreign military sales projects fructified with the sale of F-16 “Fighting Falcon” aircraft to the air forces of NATO members. It was referred to as “the deal of the century” by the Europeans who resented the “forced entry” of the American aircraft in their backyard at the expense of their armament industries. The statement of French General Hugues de l’Estaile in 1973 said it all: “The real stakes are whether Europe will have an aircraft industry or whether it will be a captive market for America.” In a way, US “foreign military sales” does destroy or diminish the indigenous enterprise of military industry of the client country importing the American hardware. Such is the domination of “foreign military sales” of the USA that the F-16 fighter manufacturer, Lockheed Martin (though originally General Dynamics was the maker of the machine) to date has a total of 4,519 aircraft ordered or requested, including planned USAF procurement of 2,230 and 28 embargoed Pakistani Air Force fighters. However, despite the European resistance to the choice of American fighter aircraft (which implied the defeat for European technology), real pressure sprang up from the Pentagon and the US Air Force. In the mid-1970s the US Secretary of Defence, Jim Schlesinger, was determined to have the same type of fighter on both sides of the Atlantic — unlike the US made F-104 Starfighter (nicknamed “Flying Coffin” or “Widow Maker” by the then West German air force) — which had never been adopted even by the US Air Force. When F-16 finally won the US Air Force contract in January 1975, “with the eventual prospect of orders for 650 planes” (Jane’s all the world’s aircraft 1975-1976; page 341342), falling in line for Europe was only a question of time as the “Pentagon rolled on”. President Gerald Ford, who on a visit to Brussels for NATO meeting, made it a “point of discussing the deal” with the Belgian Prime Minister Leo Tindemans. “Could you imagine us using our President as a salesman?” exclaimed an executive of French fighter manufacturer Marcel Dassault! At last, on June 6, 1975, just at the time of the Paris Air Show, the triumphant outcome was announced. All four NATO countries (Belgium, Denmark, Netherlands and Norway) went for the US made F-16 fighter thereby heralding, according to Defence Secretary January 2011
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DEAL OF THE CENTURY: F-16 fighter falcon Donald Rumsfeld, “a new stage in international collaboration”. The relentless pressure of the US government breached the European resistance thereby also underlining the basic weakness of the latter. Europe simply was not prepared to build its own independent defence forces. Hence, Europe failed to generate its own aerospace industry, at least temporarily. “Foreign military sales” by Washington triumphed in Europe. Another classic, but forgotten, chapter of the “foreign military sales” is that of the story of the Israeli Air Force. Today, of the total 461 combat capable aircraft, 312 are Lockheed Martin F-16s and Israel’s fighter making capability has simply vanished. The whole and sole source of Israeli combat aircraft is the USA’s “foreign military sales”. There, however, was a time when the bible of world aviation, Jane’s all the world’s aircraft 1983-1984 devoted eight pages to describe the multiple facets of Tel Aviv’s flying machines with description of fighters, light military transport and business transport aircraft. Today, the same aviation encyclopedia’s 2010-2011 edition has virtually nothing to report, except a page to depict the sorry plight of Israel’s combat aviation enterprise. It was the story of the early 1980s (when the US made F-16 was desperately trying to scout for overseas customers), when the Israeli government gave its approval for Israel Aircraft Industries (IAI) to develop Lavi (Young Lion), a new single-seat air defence and ground attack fighter for its air force. Being in the “final design stages”, the Lavi was to be slightly smaller than (the then) General Dynamics F-16, incorporating proven stateof-the-art technology. Expected to be the “workhorse” for the Israeli Air Force, a requirement of at least 300 Lavis was projected. With an emphasis on “close air support and interdiction roles, with a secondary capability for air-to-air self-defence to and from the target”, Lavi’s design characteristics included “highspeed penetration, high manoeuvrability, first-pass bombing accuracy, and battle damage tolerance for safe recovery”. Thus www.geopolitics.in
being the virtual rival to US made F-16, Lavi’s success could jeopardise American prospects. Understandably, Lavi did not see the light of day and not surprisingly “foreign military sales” subsequently made Israel wholly an extension and a continuation of the US Air Force-used fighters, thereby ensuring the successful application of “interoperability” concept of Washington DC. Thus what began in a small scale “foreign military sales” to four European nations of NATO in the 1970s, now stands expanded with the entry of Greece in 1989-1990, Italy in 2005, Portugal in 1994, Bahrain in 1990, Egypt in 1982, Oman in 2005, Pakistan in 1983, Singapore in 1988, Thailand in 1988, and Turkey in 1987. Although India made a modest beginning under America’s “foreign military sales” scheme in the aftermath of her drubbing in the Sino-Indian war in 1962, today the prospect of an expenditure of $80 bn for her defence forces in the next five years understandably makes New Delhi the closest “partner target” to the USA’s armament export drive. In fact, the process has already begun as India’s biggest arms supplier is apparently shifting from Russia to America. Under foreign military sales, New Delhi has already signed a $170 mn deal for 24 Harpoon Block II advanced air-to-surface anti-ship missiles and $647 mn contract for 145 US howitzers. Also in the pipeline are American Strykers and the Javelin third generation anti-tank guided missiles and Patriot Advanced Capability-3 ground-based anti-ballistic missile system. Purchases already made are the Boeing maritime reconnaissance and Lockheed special operations C-130J aircraft. Today, USA feels the renewed need to pay greater attention to foreign military sales of US weapon systems because it “helps her balance of payment and retain high paying, mostly union jobs. In addition, such sales reduce the price for the platforms that the US military acquires, allows for modernisation of existing systems and provides for greater interoperability with US forces”. Thus, weapons programmes like the F-16 and F-15 are solely sustained by foreign military sales, and with-
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out adequate overseas orders these two major platforms will simply go out of production thereby creating more chaos to the already existing economic downturn to the US systems. Foreign military sales for the USA is more crucial and critical today than ever before; a matter of survival or extinction of the armament industry of Washington DC. The final call to the entire issue now is: why has India got hooked in US “foreign military sales?” In what way is it going to benefit or fit the Indian defence deals and the connected industry? Is India on course to be in the same boat as Pakistan with similar/identical USmade weapon systems in the future? Will it ultimately augur well for India in the long run? The answers to all these questions, perhaps, lie in the changed geopolitics and economics of the 21st century. For far too long India had put all her aviation and naval eggs virtually in one basket held by Moscow. However, the demise of the unified USSR came as a rude shock as hardware became difficult to be repaired, replaced and retrofitted thereby resulting in avoidable cost and time over-run. India perforce looked to the “foreign military sales” route via Pentagon. It was a good decision but it was also an expensive switchover. It saved the situation as it became a government-to-government deal. Thus defence contracts between India and the USA have flourished and all military hardware from Washington DC to Delhi promises to come fast and quick. However, there is also an inherent danger; the flow of foreign military sales is solely at the hands of the Pentagon and Washington DC can be notoriously fickle-minded, intolerant and impatient at the slightest suspicion and provocation. Also, the use of common weapons systems between the two belligerent nations like India and Pakistan can create unforeseen and unanticipated problems to say the least. In brief, therefore, India’s excessive banking on the US weapons systems coming through the “foreign military sales” route may be a sound decision tactically; but one needs to see beyond one’s nose — nay, beyond visual range and ultimately beyond the horizon. Temporary import of sophisticated weapons could be a good beginning; but one’s own capacitybuilding certainly needs to be the cornerstone of one’s long-term strategy. Buying the “best technology” quickly from abroad will tactically help India, no doubt, but if resorted to ceaselessly will ensure loss of indigenous enterprise to be self-sufficient in defence. And no country can afford to be big and play big, after completely surrendering to Washington’s “foreign military sales”. January 2011
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“AN ALTERNATIVE SYSTEM FOR CISMOA, IF NEEDED” GEOPOLITICS met Rick McCrary, Director, F/A-18 Super Hornet programme in India, to know more about the evolution of the programme and the technical aspects of the Super Hornet that has made the plane one of the best fighters in the world. His answers:
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craft. AESA generates a massive amount of heat, it consumes more than double amount of heat as it comprises hundreds of tiny radars, which are individually controlled and can track and make radar maps individually for target acquisition. We knew that we needed a big cooling system and it is fitted at the back of the aircraft. In order to have truly capable AESA radar you have to design the airplane around it. Then, of course, there are different materials, with different frequency ranges. It’s an incredibly capable system. Massive amounts of information that this system can bring need better data collection; so we have a fiber optic network, which is part of this integrated body that feeds into our advanced
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Photo: H.C. Tiwari
On the evolution of the F-18 The first flight of the F 18 of Block 1 was in 1995. Now we have Block 2, which is an entirely new airplane, which first flew in 2005. So, of the 450 airplanes that we delivered till date, about 130 were the Block 1. Both Blocks have the same airframe but their avionics are different. Block 1 has previous generation aviation, and Block 2 has our Joint Strike Fighter avionics. In fact, we changed the entire front of the airplane. We have built it around the AESA radar with the same specification as was in JSF. The difference is that our radar is produced by Raytheon and Lockheed and by Northrop. We decided to change the airframe when we were integrating the AESA radar in the air-
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g INTERVIEW computer system to have better data collection. It enables us to then integrate the displays system with the component of situational awareness — the electronic signals received by the sensors, the radar signals plus the helmet-mounted cueing system. Whereever you look at the airframe, you can designate a sensor that brings the threat info into the system, then process it with the right weapon, targeting data directly onto those weapons, and also pass it to other aircraft. When was the makeover done and what are the advanced airframe features? This was done in 2005. The Navy declared it operable in 2006, so it’s a new airplane; it’s the most modern airplane to fly. The JSF (F-35 by Lockheed Martin) will be similar when it flies although it’s facing a few problems right now. And, of course, JSF has broader stealth characteristics to it. We too have stealth, it’s very effective. We believe that we are really looking for survivability not stealth. We use a combination of stealth to avoid a threat, which is always the best way. And then we have great decoy system. So even if a weapon comes near the airplane we can remove the threat. So it’s all about survivability. We have produced about 300 of the Block 2, which is on offer to India. On the Australian programme This is the same aircraft that is being offered to India. They have 24 of the 2C models after that we have the configurations called F+, so it’s an upgrade option to be converted to E/A 18 G. They haven’t made decision for upgradation, but if they will, we can do that locally in Australia. On the convertibility of Super Hornet to Growler Yes is the answer. But it would be a significant modification, as the wiring that we have done for Australia. We can do the upgrade in their hangar. Because all we do is complete the wire harness. So what we do to convert an F to a G, is drop the gun out and you replace that with an avionics package, which manages the AW system. Sensors and antenna are inserted at our stations. In the 12 F+ that the RAF has, there are cut-outs there with backing plates on it. But the IAF hasn’t indicated any interest in it today and in the 126 on offer. The two-seaters are trainers not the tactical two-seaters. Even our trainers are convertible. We convert back and forth. So, if the Navy gets an F model, they can either use it www.geopolitics.in
F/A-18 SUPER HORNET: A big buy to strengthen Indian air power
THE FLIERS ACTUALLY FLY WITH THE ‘GOD’S EYE VIEW’ AS WE CALL IT as a two-seater trainer or a tactical. They have seen the amount of information coming in, and they have now shifted their order towards two-seaters. Originally, they were just going to get about a third of their fleet as two-seaters, to replace the F 14s, and the rest would be single-seater to replace their C models. The amount of information that comes into the cockpit and the value is in the two-seaters. On the production facility It is built in St. Louis, which is the head of our defence systems. So, we build over 12000 fighters there and half of those are F-4s. We are in partnership with another company that builds the centre frame for us. It builds that up in California, near LA and ships it to us. We build the wings and the front and all other stuff. And we populate it with the equipment in St Louis.
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On the capability of F/A-18 to pass on information to other fliers We are fully networked within the US system and we will be networked here as well. We are going to change our network system to be compatible with the Indian network. We get information from the sensors and pass it on to other players — like our classic Hornet, which has older radar and classic system now flies with weapons only — using weapons picture through the Super Hornet and pass that information to other fighters. The information goes straight to its weapons and pops on the screen for the pilot to confirm, but he never has to put in anything himself. So, we are really delivering the weapons remotely from that perspective. We also take information from AWACS, AWC and other systems that give us a broader air picture and complete situational awareness. The fliers actually fly with the ‘God’s eye view’ as we call it, to know who our friends or the friendlies are. It’s all part of the situational awareness package, to know where the enemy is, where my friends are. And it will direct the fleet. So, the two-seater is often used as a battle director system; it can direct the single-seater aircraft around. It can assign targets. It’s entirely software driven. The one central will tell the others that this is your. Here, the aircraft has the advantage of AESA radar accuracy. So, they still have their own radar, which is good for some operations. But in place of fitting the AESA into old aircraft, we just feed them the information. January 2011
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g INTERVIEW On the business of geopolitics These are government-to-government sales. It’s still government-to-government even though it’s competitive. This is FMS, the US government is competing. Boeing puts in the bid, Lockheed puts in the bid, but at the end of the day the US government takes the guarantee. We are working on behalf of the government. Similarity of equipment between USAF Super Hornet and those offered to India We always tailor our aircraft for the customer, like you want different data link, you want different communication system. So it’s not exactly the same as the US. Even where it’s different, the US government certifies its capability. It’s safe to fly. They take the first airplane to our test facility and fly it for several months to ensure that it’s going to meet the performance that they signed on for. So, the US government certifies the performance of the aircraft. Even if it’s different, it’s certified by the US government. So, even if we put the equipment in as the manufacturer, the US government has to certify it for two reasons: one, safety in flight and the other, it doesn’t interfere with the installed equipment. So, they are responsible for the performance of the aircraft. On CISMOA CISMOA is a government-to-government
NOBODY CAN BE COMPARED TO THE TECHNOLOGY WE HAVE TO OFFER agreement, so we have absolutely no control over it. And when we remove something from the airplane we need to provide an alternative system to ensure the airplane is fit for the purpose. This is not new to India. Any country that wants a separate system, we make the changes. We do the engineering and the US government certifies its performance. So, if CISMOA is not signed, we will have to provide an alternative system, to meet the one specified by India. On offset Offsets are part of most of our sales. And, of course, even in FMS, the US government has nothing to do with offsets. So they say to the contractor: ‘This is yours to deal with.’ It’s a separate contract. And we
ON COMPETITION NOBODY CAN BE COMPARED TO THE TECHNOLOGY WE HAVE TO OFFER. WE ARE INCOMPARABLE. THIS IS A PURPOSEBUILD STRIKE FIGHTER, THE OTHER COMPETITORS ARE INTERCEPTORS WITH THE SECONDARY MISSION TO STRIKE. THE AESA RADAR GIVES US THE CAPABILITY, AND IT’S A NEW PLANE. NO ONE ELSE IS FLYING WITH THE AESA RADAR.
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have done this for the bulk of our sales, all around the world. Offset percentage It’s difficult, but we have worked in places where we had 100 per cent offsets. It was difficult to deal with. The difference here is the Transfer of Technology ( ToT) requirement and no other country that we dealt with had that. It’s a challenge but we do that. On the bidding process ToT is all about manufacture of the aircraft; we are fully prepared and have submitted a compliance report, that over a period of years you can manufacture the aircraft in the country. It’s same for all competitors. First 18 aircraft will be delivered. Starting with number 19, there are kits, so the first some number of kits are big parts. And then those kits become more kits over time and then it’s all the parts. And during that timeframe you start manufacturing the parts. HAL is already building the gun bay door, and over time like I said, and that’s the ToT and it’s a massive programme. Building an airplane is a massive job. Even in St. Louis, a lot of parts comes in kits, and we assemble, test and then we deliver it. On the cost component of assembly I don’t really know the answer; it will be different here and in the US, as there is different labour costs. We have quoted for the first 18 aircraft, and for the kits. Anything quoted in US will be in US pricing. But things down here, we don’t know what your rates are, so we could not quote that. On competition Nobody can be compared to the technology we have to offer. We are incomparable. This is a purpose-build strike fighter, the other competitors are interceptors with the secondary mission to strike. The AESA radar gives us the capability, and it’s a new plane. No one else is flying with the AESA radar. On certification The department of defence does that. The US Navy and the US Air Force also certify. They have to comply with the FAA rules, but they are the certifying agency. On the Indian aerospace industry I think there is more and more opportunity in the Indian aerospace industry; there are lots of niche players. January 2011
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As fuel prices touch the stratosphere, airlines owners get edgy. It’s like walking on hot coals: they are cutting costs, dropping routes and wondering what to do next
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THE TURNAROUND COMETH? Arvind Jadhav CMD, Air India
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LEADING THE FORCES OR MUDDLING ALONG Maj Gen (Retd) RAJ MEHTA believes that the political establishment and the services are together responsible for this sorry state of affairs. Will the country learn from the best practices of other nations and incorporate them in the higher defence organisation? A special report
THREE SERVICE CHIEFS: The IAF, the Navy and the Army have a strategic role to play in India's security interests www.geopolitics.in
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FINE-TUNING FOREIGN POLICY: Prime Minister Manmohan Singh discussing strategic security issues with US President Obama, during his India visit
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EDIA, THINK-TANKS, India watchers and the common man all believe that the current security situation within India and in the South Asian region is a matter of grave national concern. It is, however, a moot point whether India’s hapless ruling coalition and Parliament share this concern. The UPA was unable to open the parliamentary lock through the entire winter session, with a fractious opposition hell bent on scoring brownie points on issues of accountability and endemic corruption. India’s apex leadership, both civil, and, by extension, its military leadership, is thus under substantial operational stress. With the Af-Pak region threatening to spin out of American-NATO control, with increasing Sino-Pak collusion in the PoK (Pakistan-occupied Kashmir) region and Chinese defence-related proactivity in Tibet and all over the South Asian region; with the need to promote better relationships with Nepal, Sri Lanka, Myanmar and countries in the Indian Ocean littoral, one would have thought that India would have been deeply concerned and would have consistently fine-tuned its defence and foreign policies, bringing its military leadership to the fore-
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front of the country’s security concerns. This has regrettably not happened. For the first time since attaining its Independence, India hosted the heads of state/government of all five permanent members of the UN Security Council (US, Russia, China, Britain and France) in the
INDIA'S BOTH CIVIL AND MILITARY LEADERSHIP ARE UNDER SUBSTANTIAL STRESS same year. The sequence began with British Prime Minister David Cameron in July 2010. In November, US President Barack Obama followed. The visits of French President Nicolas Sarkozy, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in December are all of significance, provided there is synergy within the
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Indian political establishment and its military establishment as to desired gains. This does not appear to be the case. Let us, therefore, review our defence organisation and reflect on why there is such an inexplicable disconnect between the political hierarchy and its defence component.
EVOLUTION OF INDIAN HIGHER DEFENCE ORGANISATION On Independence, Lord Mountbatten and his Chief of Staff, Lord Ismay, recommended a pragmatic system, which was based on a Commander-in-Chief (C-in-C) for operational handling and administration of each Service, and a Chiefs of Staff Committee (COSC) for central coordination. The COSC was to be supported by other committees with civil service members in them, to improve coordination between the Services, and between the Services and the Ministry of Defence (MoD). The system was workable, but the senior civil servants of the time intervened to completely distort the concept of “civilian supremacy” to give it their own interpretation of “bureaucratic control” by issuing an edict that made the Services “attached” to the MoD, thereby exposing them to suffocating controls. January 2011
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g FOCUS Post the Kargil War, the findings of the Kargil Review Committee (KRC) contained a damning indictment of our national security system. The KRC led to the formation, in April 2000, of a Group of Ministers (GoM) to suggest reforms through four specially mandated Task Forces. One of them was the Task Force on Management of Defence, headed by former Minister of State for Defence, Arun Singh.
THE PRESENT SYSTEM
Supreme Commander of Indian Armed Forces
THE CURRENT HIGHER DEFENCE SYSTEM Let us, for a moment, examine the existing structure. The President is the Supreme Commander of the Indian armed forces and the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) headed by the Prime Minister, assisted by his Home, Defence, External Affairs and Finance ministers is the country’s apex security decisionmaking body. The National Security Council (NSC), along with the National Security Adviser (NSA), works parallel to the CCS. The NSC comprises of a Strategic Policy Group (SPG), a National Security Advisory Board (NSAB) and a Secretariat provided by the Joint Intelligence Committee. (JIC). The SPG is responsible for inter-ministry coordination and comprises the Cabinet Secretary, three Service Chiefs and secretaries of key ministries beside heads of key Intelligence agencies and the Governor of the Reserve Bank of India. The MoD is required to ensure effective implementation of the Government’s defence policy directions. It is organised as four departments (defence, defence production, defence research and development and ex-servicemen’s welfare) with an advisory Defence (Finance) division. The Defence Secretary is its civilian head and also deals with the Integrated Defence Staff (IDS), the three Services and Inter-Service Organisations. The COSC is a forum for the Service Chiefs to discuss defence matters and render advice to the MoD. The senior-most Chief is the Chairman. Admiral Arun Prakash notes in “India’s Higher Defence Organisation: Implications for National Security and Jointness”, that when he became Chairman of COSC in February 2005, he was the fourth successive incumbent in six months. He adds with sobering realpolitik that in his 20-month tenure as Chairman, COSC, there was rarely a meaningful debate… “Because of the unstated understanding amongst the Chiefs that ‘if you don’t interfere with my plans, I’ll not comment on yours’”. The serious anomaly in the decisionwww.geopolitics.in
Cabinet Committee & Security (CCS)
NSC
NSA
Ministeries
Shiv Shankar Menon Home P Chidambaram
Defence A K Antony
External Affairs Finance Pranab Mukherji S M Krishna
Strategic Policy Gruup
National Security Advisor Board
Secretariat provided by the Joint Intelligence Committee.
Three Security Chiefs Governor RBI Dr D Subbarao
Cabinet Secretary K M Chandrasekhar
Army — General V K Singh
Navy — CNS Admiral Nirmal Verma
making apparatus that the Arun Singh Task Force thus homed in on to was the absence of objective and unified apex military advice and oversight to Government that was free of inter-Services rivalry. What it suggested after detailed worldwide study was the introduction of the Chief of Staff (CDS) system. What it used as a model was the American system, enshrined in the Senators Goldwater-Nichols Department of Defense Reorganization Act of 1986. What did the US Goldwater-Nichols Department of Defense Reorganization Act of 1986 do? The Goldwater-Nichols Act was a bold and revolutionary political initiative to fix problems caused by inter-Services rivalry, which had emerged during the Vietnam War, contributed to the catastrophic
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Air Force — Pradeep Vasant Naik
failure of the Iranian hostage rescue mission in 1980, and which were still evident in the invasion of Grenada in 1983. In the pre-Goldwater-Nichols era, the United States military had a system very similar to the Indian one, with field commanders reporting to their respective Service Chiefs. These Chiefs comprised the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee. The Joint Chiefs of Staff elected a Chairman to communicate with the civilian government. The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs in turn reported to the Secretary of Defence, the civilian head of the military. Both the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs and the Secretary of Defence reported to the President of the United States, who is Commander-in-Chief of all US armed forces. This system led to January 2011
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g FOCUS to be created ex-post facto. intense inter-Services rivalry. This problem has been felt Peacetime activities (such by all Services almost since as procurement and creation Independence. of doctrine, etc.) were tailored for each service in isolation. INDIAN JUGAD (IMPROJust as seriously, wartime VISED) TO THE RESCUE activities of each service were In the manner that planned, executed, and evaluIndia seems to have an ated independently. The cre(L-R):Barry Goldwater, William Flynt Nichols, K Subramanian, Arun Sinha and unenviable copyright on, ation of a unifying Air Land Admiral Arun Prakash we have muddled along, in Battle Doctrine in the late the absence of political 1970s-early 1980s, which and services consensus on the CDS, by creArmy has come around to accepting it, not attempted to synthesise the capabilities of ation of an Integrated Defence Staff (IDS) so the Navy and Air Force who fear that the Services into a single doctrine, revealed under the Chief of Integrated Defence Staff their Service interests may get swamped by the serious lack of inter-Services synergy — to the Chiefs of Staff Committee (CISC). the sheer size of the Army as well as the prea weakness that was exposed in the US invaThis organisation is meant to support the sumed inability of the CDS to comprehend sion of Grenada in 1983. COSC in performance of its role and funchow the Navy and Air Force look at optiThe first successful test of Goldwatertions, and bring together and coordinate mum utilisation of their capability and Nichols was the 1991 Gulf War (“Operation several functions, including the formulareach and their plans to help convert India Desert Storm”), where it functioned exactly tion of long-term and Five Year Plans and into a regional power of substance. as planned, allowing the US Commander, Annual Budgets have been brought under Given its size, geographical location, Army General Norman Schwarzkopf, to the IDS. Tri-Service bodies promoting exercise full control over Marine Corps, trade links and the EEZ (Exclusive Econom‘jointness’ and ‘synergy’ among the armed Army, Air Force and Navy assets without ic Zones), India’s security environment forces have been set up like the Defence having to negotiate with the individual servextends from the Persian Gulf to the Straits Intelligence Agency (DIA), the Strategic ices. Under the Goldwater-Nichols Act, miliof Malacca across the Indian Ocean, includForces Command (SFC) and the Andaman tary advice was centralised in the Chairman ing the Central Asian region in the North and Nicobar Command. Individual service of the Joint Chiefs as opposed to the Service West, China in the North East and South headquarters have been re-designated and Chiefs. It increased the ability of the ChairEast Asia. This is how the Navy sees itself; as integrated to the Ministry of Defence as man to direct overall strategy, but provided a strategic player of substance, with vast part of the ‘Integrated Headquarters of the greater command authority to “unified” and areas of security responsibility far away Ministry of Defence’. “specified” field commanders. Goldwaterfrom the mainland but key nevertheless to Nichols changed the way the Services interthe nation’s security. The IAF sees itself as a THE WAY AHEAD act. The Services themselves “organise, train strategic force with trans-oceanic reach and Given the “banana republic” kind of outlook and equip” forces for use by the combatant is now projecting itself into sole command that the beleaguered ruling coalition is commanders (CCDRs), and the Service of space and therefore satellites and exhibiting; the dismal outlook of a fractious as Chiefs no longer exercise any operational weapons using space as well. well as fractured opposition, there seems little control over their forces. Rather than reportThe IAF and the Navy, as per Admiral hope of our exhibiting the national and politiing to a Service Chief operationally, the servArun Prakash, strongly feel they have a cal resolve that will see a way out of this mess ice component forces support the CCDR much bigger strategic role to play in securand put politico-military relations on a responsible for a specific function (Transing India’s strategic security interests than healthy track that promotes Indian national portation, Strategic, Joint Forces, and Spethe Army, which, these Services feel, is interest over all other (sectarian) interests. For cial Operations), or a geographic region of deeply committed as a ‘landlubber’ to them, it seems cruelly apt to apply the words the globe (Europe, Middle East, etc). mainland security challenges and their of G K Chesterton: “It is not that they don’t extension into the peripheral region. It know what the solution is; what they don’t therefore does not seem well disposed to SERVICES AND POLITICAL know is the problem.” The skeptical observer the concept of “theatre commands” that lie APPREHENSIONS IN INDIA might wonder whether the larger military at the heart of what the other two Services Besides the US, UK, France, Germany, Italy, establishment, given its unease and visible feel ought to be the true DNA of the Indian China, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singadiscomfort with a unified strategic security security system. pore, Thailand and Sri Lanka, all have a vision is also not guilty of displaying the same There is another dissonance too and this duly-appointed Chief of Defence Staff weakness that has remained as a legacy with is between the perceived Indian strategic (CDS), who enjoys the full confidence and us since the Battle of the Hydaspes in 326 BC aims, military doctrine and the need for trust of the head of government, and to — abysmal lack of a strategic culture. What acquiring modern military hardware. There whom he directly reports. In India, howevseems possible and the right way forward is is a major problem here, because our strateer, even though the Government accepted for final arbiter of the nation’s destiny; the gic vision has not been officially stated even the CDS suggestion, it slipped in a caveat Supreme Court of India, to step in and though it can be extrapolated. Also, because that there must be political consensus on demand legislation that removes the there is dissonance between politician-milits implementation. The political parties by leadership and operational stresses from our itary and bureaucrats, we have often ended and large have not even replied to the Govpolitico-military apparatus. up buying hardware that is not in consoernment’s request for their response. nance with our needs and for which Within the Services too, there is lack of military use and justification has then got consensus on creation of this office. The (The author is a Chandigarh-based analyst.) www.geopolitics.in
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LCA INITIAL OPERATIONAL CLEARANCE IN JANUARY ‘11 AFTER NEARLY three decades of development, India’s indigenous Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) will obtain its Initial Operational Clearance (IOC) around the middle of January 2011, taking its last step before induction into the Indian Air Force (IAF). As India’s long-time-in-the-works project, LCA design and development by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) was approved by the government in the late 1960s. Nicknamed ‘Tejas’ in 2004, the LCA designing had been launched in 1985 by the Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA) under the DRDO with HAL as the nodal
manufacturing agency. With the IOC coming in January, the IAF intends to induct two squadrons of the LCA by the middle of 2011. The IAF had first placed the orders for 40 LCAs in March 2005.
New Mi-1 17 choppers for IAF
SUPER HERCULES DELIVERED DEFENCE MAJOR Lockheed Martin delivered the first of six C-130Js to the Indian Air Force at Marietta on December 17. The first two C-130Js would be flown to India in January. The IAF would deploy this latest fleet of airlifters, configured for special operations and airborne assault, on the outskirts of New Delhi to cut down on response time in situations akin to the 26/11 terror attacks. The C-130J Super Hercules airlifters, capable of
The first 40 LCAs will be powered by the American General Electric GE-F404 engines. The government had, a couple of months ago, chosen the GE-F414 as the new engine for future LCAs after rejecting its competitor, Eurojet’s EJ200 engine. A total of 99 GE-F414 engines are to be purchased under the deal with General Electric. The IAF may ultimately have around 200 LCAs (10 squadrons) in its fleet, primarily to replace the ageing Russian MiG-21 and MiG-27 fighter jets.
operating from unprepared runways, would be based at the Hindon Air Force station in UP’s Ghaziabad’s district. The planes are equipped with air-to-air refuelling capability and have self-protection systems that improve chances of survival in hostile situations. The delivery of the airlifters is part of a $1.2-billion (`5,400 crore) contract the Defence Ministry had signed in 2008 for six C-130Js, under Washington’s foreign military sales programme. INDIA WILL begin inducting the first lot of 80 Russian Mi-17-V5 helicopters, contracted under a $1.34-billion deal inked in December 2008, from March 2011 onwards, according to Defence Minister A K Antony. These helicopters will be utilised for special heliborne operations, air maintenance, troop and equipment transportation, search and rescue, casualty evacuation and in armed helicopter roles. The
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deliveries of 80 Mi-17-V5 helicopters are expected to conclude by 2014, as per the contract, which also envisages an offset obligation by Russia to the tune of $405 million. While bolstering IAF’s medium-lift capabilities, the new helicopters will also make it possible for the force to deploy additional choppers for logistical support in ongoing anti-Naxal operations. The choppers will replace 50 old Mi-8s in the IAF fleet.
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g COAST GUARD SHIP ‘VIJIT’ COMMISSIONED India’s oldest sub retires
INDIAN COAST Guard ship ‘Vijit’, second in the series of 90-metre Offshore Patrol Vessel (OPV), has been commissioned at Goa by M M Pallam Raju, Minister of
State for Defence on December 13. This OPV has been designed and built indigenously and is fitted with mostadvanced navigation and communication equipment, sensors and machinery. The ship is designed to carry one twinengine light helicopter and five highspeed boats for search and rescue, lawenforcement and maritime patrol. It is also capable of carrying pollution response equipment to combat any oil spill contamination at sea. ICGS Vijit will be manned by eight officers and 82 men under the command of Deputy Inspector General Naresh Kaul and will be based at Porbandar.
Scorpenes to get lethal plus!
THE NAVY is weighing a proposal to modify the under-construction Scorpene submarines to enable the boats to stay underwater for longer periods and enhance their combat capabilities. It is considering to equip the submarines, being built at Mazagon Dock Limited (MDL), with an air independent propulsion (AIP) system that can recharge their batteries without having to surface for more than three weeks. Conventional submarines have to surface almost every second day to run their airbreathing diesel engines, running the risk of detection. Six Scorpene submarines are being built with transfer of technology from French firm DCNS, under a `18,798-crore programme called Project 75. DCNS CEO Patrick Boissier, who accompanied French President Nicolas Sarkozy, during his recent www.geopolitics.in
visit to India, says that his company is in talks with the Navy to equip the submarines with AIP systems. According to Boissier, if a contract were to be placed by next year, AIP systems could be integrated into the fifth and the sixth submarines rolling out of MDL in 2018. The systems can be retrofitted on the first four submarines later under an upgrade programme. The Navy is also looking at an indigenous AIP system being developed by the Defence Research and Development Organisation. Navy Chief Admiral Nirmal Verma has said that the first Scorpene submarine would enter service in 2015 and the remaining six within a span of three years. The Navy was supposed to induct its first Scorpene in 2012, but the project has been delayed.
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INDIA’S PRECARIOUSLY low submarine strength took a dive on December 15 with the decommissioning of the Navy’s oldest foxtrotclass submarine, INS Vagli, which retired after 36 years of service. Commissioned in August, 1974, INS Vagli was commanded by 23 officers in all major tactical exercises off both sea-boards and in the high seas. With its retirement, the naval submarine strength has come down to 14 ageing vessels of which only eight-nine are operational at any given point of time. In 1999, the Cabinet Committee on Security decided to create two production lines for submarines with foreign vendors to achieve an indigenous design and manufacturing capability. While the first line to produce six French Scorpene submarines is operational at the Mazgaon Dock, the second line too received government approval recently.
NAVY WANTS VIGIL ON UNGUARDED BENGAL STRETCH THE INDIAN Navy has asked the Border Security Force and the customs department to beef up their presence along the 160-km-long stretch of water that runs through the Sunderbans. Navy officials are concerned that even two years after the 26/11 attacks in Mumbai, such a long stretch has remained unmanned. This stretch provides almost free-entry rights to the Indian waters where ships from Bangladesh are allowed to travel a long stretch before reaching the Customs checkpoint at Namkhana, about 120km south of Kolkata. According to an Indo-Bangladesh trade agreement, ships from Bangaldesh can enter India through Bihari Khal by going through a routine check by the BSF. January 2011
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COVERSTORY
CYBER WARFARE THE NEW FRONTIER IF WARFARE IS GOING TO BE CONDUCTED IN CYBER SPACE AND IF THE COMBATANTS OF THE FUTURE ARE GOING TO BE IRREGULARS, THEN CYBER TERRORISM IS THE LOGICAL PARADIGM OF FUTURE CONFLICTS, ARGUES PRAKASH NANDA www.geopolitics.in
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I
NFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (IT) is a double-edged sword, which can be used for destructive as well as constructive purposes. It has now created for the mankind a fifth dimension to land, sea, air and space, though unlike the other four dimensions it is completely man-made and man-controlled. We all know how through the constructive use of IT, India’s profile and wealth have gone up enormously in the world. However, at the same time — and this is the destructive aspect — India now ranks fifth among countries reporting the maximum number of cyber crimes, according to a recent report released by the Internet Crime Complaint Centre of the United States. In fact, it is said that with India becoming home to the fourth-highest number of Internet users in the world, cyber crimes have been rising at more than 50 per cent every year. The great virtues of the Internet — ease of access, lack of regulation, vast potential audiences, and fast flow of information, among others — have been turned to the advantage of groups committed to terrorising societies to achieve their goals. Cyber weapons are very different from conventional weapons in the sense that they are very easy to replicate without spending much money. Actually, the total expenditure is in the creation of the first or original weapon. Through the applications of these weapons, one can adversely affect individuals, organisations and countries — both singly and combined. Terrorism on the Internet is a very dynamic phenomenon: websites suddenly emerge, frequently modify their formats, and then swiftly disappear — or, in many cases, seem to disappear by changing their online address but retaining much the same content. Recently, Indian Cabinet Secretary K M Chandrasekhar admitted that cyber terrorism and cyber attacks had emerged as new threats with a capability to paralyse the critical infrastructure of the country. "The damage of such attacks could range from a simple shut down of a computer system to complete paralysis of a significant portion of critical infrastructure," he said. That India is undergoing a turbulent phase with regard to cyber crimes is evident from the attack by Chinese hackers to the computers in the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) not long ago. The sinister attempt was made around December 15, 2009. Investigators are still coming to terms with the depth of the damage. The hackers had aimed high — their targets were the cream of India’s national security set-up: the then National Security Advisor M K
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Narayanan, Cabinet Secretary K M Chandrasekhar, PM’s then Special Envoy Shyam Saran and Deputy National Security Advisor Shekhar Dutt. The four and up to 26 others were squarely in the crosshairs of the hacking attempt. The timing of the espionage attempt had investigators suspecting that the Chinese hackers were desperately trying to access any data on India’s position at the Copenhagen Climate Summit. In March 2009, a China-based cyber spy network had hacked into the government and private systems of 103 countries, including those of many Indian embassies and the Dalai Lama. In May 2008, hackers from China attacked the Ministry of External Affairs’ (MEA) website. Despite official denials, at least one website reported that the hackers had stolen the log-in identities and passwords of several Indian diplomats. In any case, a huge number of 9,052 Indian websites have been at the mercy of an anti-India community, that too in the last three-four years. Hackers from across the Indian borders have become a new threat point for the government. Of course,
INDIA IS UNDERGOING A TURBULENT PHASE WITH REGARD TO CYBER CRIMES cyber attacks from across the border are not new to India. It happened for the first time when, during the nuclear tests at Pokhran in 1998, Pakistan hacked the websites of Zee News and India Today. The Pakistan-based hackers, GForce Pakistan and Pakistani Hackerz Club, owned up to the intrusion, leaving threatening messages and demanding a stoppage to the N-tests. Even after the Parliament attacks in December 2001 and later a massive troop stand-off between India and Pakistan, several hacking incidents were reported. Subsequently, the Pakistani hackers targeted the Indian website www.armyinkashmir.com, which was providing factual information about daily events in the Kashmir Valley in 1999. The hackers posted photographs showing the Indian security forces allegedly killing Kashmiri people and blamed the Indian
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government for "atrocities” in Kashmir. Obviously, it had the intended impact in the Valley. Similarly, in 2008, techno-savvy terrorists based in Pakistan used the Internet to send terror e-mails a few seconds before triggering the serial blasts across the country. In December 2008, the Eastern Railways portal was hacked by Whackerz-Pakistan. The official site www.easternrailway.gov.in bore a strange look. When opened, the top scroll on the site, which normally consists of official announcements, had unusual notes. The first note read: “Cyber war has been declared on Indian cyberspace by Whackerz-Pakistan (24 Dec-2008)”. This was followed by two other abusive notes. The threat note also claimed that servers of Indian financial institutions would also be hacked with the help of the group’s members working in computer departments of “foreign companies”. The scene became grimmer after the 26/11 Mumbai attacks in 2008. The Pakistani group, Pakistan Cyber Army hacked the websites of the Indian Institute of Remote Sensing, the Centre for Transportation Research and Management, the Kendriya Vidyalaya of Ratlam (a chain of schools run by the Indian Army) and the Oil and Natural Gas Corporation of India (ONGC). The damages took a long time to fill. Hostile neighbours, or for that matter external enemies can always create havoc by indulging in what is now well known as cyber war. For instance, it is now an open secret that Russia launched an unprecedented cyber war against Estonia in May 2007, soon after Estonian authorities began removing a bronze statute depicting a World War II-era Soviet soldier in Tallinn (capital of Estonia). Though officially Russia denied it, the fact was that its cyber attack virtually crippled Estonia’s digital infrastructure by clogging the websites of the President, the Prime Minister, and Parliament as well as staggering the country’s biggest bank and the sites of several daily newspapers. In fact, the attack totally destroyed Estonia’s financial system for a few weeks. The attack on Estonia was one of the most publicised hacks in recent computing history. But it wasn’t the first case of cyber espionage, nor the most egregious. It’s the “tip of the iceberg of the quantity and quality of attacks that are going on,” says O Sami Saydjari, president of the Cyber Defense Agency, a security consultant, and a former Pentagon computer security expert. Israel, Pakistan and the United States have all been accused of launching similar attacks on adversaries. China, however, may be the most active. Washington has accused the China of hacking January 2011
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READY, AIM, ENTER… IN A CYBER war, the enemy's main goal is to penetrate the rival's computer networks, exploit its communication networks and to manipulate its digital information. Other cyber tactics are less sophisticated. The attack that temporarily brought down the Estonian networks began with a flood of bogus messages targeting government servers, called a “denial of service” attack. The approach harnesses “botnets”— massive networks of interconnected computers to bombard targeted networks with information requests while masking the location of the primary attacker. Another technique is the use of “malware”, “spyware,” and other malicious programmes imbedded into computer systems to steal information without user knowledge. The software is designed to hide undetected and siphon information from its host — everything from secrets stored on personal computers to military mainframes. Less common but far more worrisome are cyber attacks aimed at critical infrastructure — like nuclear-power-plant control systems, banks, or subways. In March 2007, the US Department of Energy's Idaho Lab conducted an experiment to determine whether a power plant could be compromised by hacking alone. The result — a smoking, selfcombusting diesel generator incapacitated by nothing more than keystrokes — sent shivers (according to CNN) through the private sector. The worries were apparently well-founded. In January 2008, a CIA analyst told US utilities that hackers had succeeded in infiltrating electric companies in undisclosed locations outside the United
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States and, in at least one instance, shut off power to multiple cities. The hackers then demanded money (as reported by AP). As regards India, the immediate threats are from our immediate neighbours, Pakistan and China, it is believed. According to the Intelligence Bureau, China may try and destabilise our economy by launching attacks on our banking sectors. Pakistan, on the other hand, may attack essential commodity-related services instead. Reports indicate that for a terrorist organisation, the easiest way to launch an attack on India would be through the cyber route. It is high investment, but it saves them the trouble of manpower on the field and the impact such an attack could cause is immense. IB reports also suggest that terrorist organisations could start an Internet war by hacking into websites and sending out viruses to destabilise the enemy nation. The forms of cyber assaults would include cyber vandalism, destruction of essential commodity-related sites (ESCOMs) and phishing. Cyber war on India is likely to be fought in three stages. First, the enemy would bring down the control systems of defence installations, Parliament, railways and airports. Second, they would look to attack financial services such as banks and stock markets. Finally, ESCOMs and other utilities services will be taken over. Cyber crime experts say this is a dangerous scenario. It will surely create a lot of panic and if they succeed, it could cause a lot of destruction, since it would take days before the services actually recover.
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government computer networks at the US Departments of State, Commerce, and Defense — in some instances making off with data. But accusations of Chinese cyber meddling reached a crescendo in June 2007, when, according to the Financial Times, hackers broke into a Pentagon network that serves the office of the Secretary of Defense, briefly shutting it down. Chinese electronic espionage has also been suspected against British companies (Rolls Royce is one example), as well as government agencies in France, Germany, South Korea, and Taiwan. “Chinese capabilities in this area have evolved from defending networks from attack to offensive operations against adversary networks,” Deputy UnderSecretary for Defense, Richard P Lawless told a House Committee in June 2007. However, China, like Russia, denied the accusations. Fortunately, no hostile neighbour has caused that harm to India as yet, but our companies and financial institutions are apprehensive of cyber attacks. In 2006, IBM conducted a global survey of more than 3,000
INDIA PERCEIVED CYBER CRIME AS A GREATER THREAT THAN PHYSICAL CRIME Chief Information Officers or other individuals qualified to answer questions about their company’s IT practices. It included 150 respondents from India. The survey showed that Indian businesses perceived cyber crime (44 per cent) as a greater threat than physical crime (31 per cent) to their business. They believed that one could always damage telecommunications or rail links, disrupt power supplies and harm other important parts of India’s infrastructure through cyber attacks. As for individual attacks, the trend has been on a constant rise. According to the latest report of the National Crime Record Bureau (NCRB), the maximum cyber crime cases, about 46 per cent, were related to incidents of cyber pornography, followed by hacking. This number must have gone up, given the fact that this NCRB report was out in 2007. Experts have always paid scant respect to the recorded cyber crime statistics since this only reflects the cases registered by the January 2011
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g COVERSTORY central government, apart from the required “State” subject and the complaints have to be police. It has no relation to the actual number review and monitoring of project implemenlodged with the local police, it all depends of cyber crimes happening in the country as tation on a continuing basis. under what laws the police register the cases, well as complaints taken by the public to difThe broad objectives of the CCTNS project and in most cases, the police prefer the ageferent police stations where they are refused. are streamlining investigation and prosecuold IPC simply because the local police is not However, if we take the figures given by the tion processes, strengthening of the intelliconversant with the intricacies of the IT Act, cyber cell of Delhi Police, one gets a trend and gence-gathering machinery, improved publicwhich is a central legislation. that is a matter of concern. The number of delivery system and citizen-friendly interface, Other than the police officers, in India, registered cyber crimes is going up constantly nationwide sharing of information on crime lawyers and judges are not properly trained in year-after-year and here most of the cases and criminals and improving efficiency and cyber law aspects so that cyber criminals may have been e-mail hacking and online matrieffectiveness of police functioning. The projbe suitably punished. In the absence of proper monial frauds. According to the Delhi Police, ect aims to fulfil various specified objectives training, there is almost no conviction of cyber in 2009 e-mail hacking and the consequent over a period of three years. Accordingly, in criminals in India. The major problem has cheating cases went up by 150 per cent. It is December 2009, the Parliament of India was been due to the lack of what is called Cyber said that in many a case, Nigerian gangs are told that the Government of India (GoI) was Forensics. We know how forensic devices are very active in India, particularly during festive interconnecting about 14,000 police stations important in normal criminal investigations seasons when massive purchases are done and 6,000 police offices across the country to gather evidence to prove in a court but to online, thanks to the system of credit cards through CCTNS. The government is also prove cyber crimes, electronic evidence and and online bank accounts. examining the feasibility of connecting hotels their collection and presentation have posed a It is obvious that cyber criminals, unlike and guesthouses to the CCTNS system. challenge to investigation agencies, prosecuother criminals, are educated. They are not While cyber experts are eagerly waiting for tion agencies and judiciary. necessarily motivated by notoriety, unless the actual implementation of the CCTNS sysRealising the gravity of the situation, the they are government-sponsored to do mistem, it is also being felt that another chief in enemy countries or are INDIAN WEBSITES improvement that is urgently hard core terrorists. Hackers, otherrequired to be adopted, implementwise, want to earn quick money. In ed and inculcated by the Judges of fact, the demographic profile of a District Courts, High Courts and typical cyber criminal is changing Supreme Court of India pertains to rapidly, from a bedroom-bound techno-legal acumen and knowlgeek to the type of organised gangedge. Techno-Legal acumen is diffister more traditionally associated cult to acquire as it requires a sound with drug-trafficking, extortion and Eastern Railways Zee News working and practical knowledge of money laundering. Cyber criminals both technical and legal aspects of can earn thousands without leaving the Information and Communicatheir homes. In fact, to make more tion Technology (ICT)-related money than can be made by selling aspects. Issues like Cyber Law, Interheroin. According to NCRB report, national Telecommunications Laws, most of the offenders are in the age Kendriya Cyber Forensics, Digital Evidencing, group of 18 and 30 years. Vidyalaya of Cyber Security, etc. pose difficult That brings us to the question on Ratlam how do deal with the cyber crimes? Indian Institute and sometimes non-understandof Remote able legal issues before the courts. It is no doubt a Herculean task, givSensing The judges in India must fill in this en the fact that the technology much-needed and unnoticed legal involved in cyber crimes is so fast India Today gap that has not yet been explored changing, any law would find it difOil and Natural Gas by them. ficult to keep pace. Second, any Corporation of India It must be realised that cyber effective law will need international threats are worrisome and, therefore, the govgovernment has now devised what is now cooperation in the sense that the criminal is ernment must come out with strong and pracknown as the Crime and Criminal Tracking not supposed to be physically present in the tical solutions to counter such threats. But givNetwork & Systems (CCTNS) project, and this country where the crime is committed. Unforen the very nature of IT revolution, there canhas been formally approved by the Cabinet tunately, there are no international rules and not be a single solution to deal with these Committee on Economic Affairs of the govconventions as yet to deal with cyber crimes. ernment. It has a financial cushion of 2,000 threats. There is a need for what is called a Obviously, there is need now to tighten intercrore as per the 11th Five Year Plan. The projtechno-legal “harmonised law”. We need a national digital legislation and of cross-border ect would be initiated by the Ministry of Home good combination of law and technology in law-enforcement co-ordination to fight cyber Affairs and implemented by the National such a manner that it is in harmony with the crime. Crime Records Bureau. The CCTNS project is laws of various countries keeping in mind That brings the scope of national laws. In to be implemented in a manner where the common security standards. In this era of eIndia, cyber crimes come under both the major role would lie with the state governgovernance and e-commerce, a lack of comtraditional Indian Penal Code (IPC) and the ments in order to bring in the requisite stakes, mon security standards can create havoc for Information Technology Act, 2000, which was ownership and commitment, and only certain global trade in goods and services, not to talk amended in 2008. And herein lies, according core components would be in the hands of the of military matters. to the experts, confusion. Since policing is a
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As the threat of cyber terrorism looms large over the future, RADHAKRISHNA RAO takes a look at how India is prepared to deal with it HE UNPRECEDENTED communications revolution that was ushered in by the cyber age has turned the world into a veritable "global village". Indeed, cyber space has radically transformed the way individuals and societies communicate by overcoming the barriers of time, distance and natural impediments. But on the flipside, the cyber revolution has led to terrorists, white collar criminals and antisocial elements making use of the cyber space to realise their "devious and dangerous objectives". Indeed, there is a growing perception that the next war could start and end in cyber space. As pointed out by strategic analysts, the ancient art and profession of warfare is now all set to enter the domain of cyber space after being fought on land, sea and in the air. Sometime back, defence experts had expressed concern over the outer space emerging as the battlefield for the next world war. With leading space-faring countries, including India, hinting at developing devices aimed at ensuring the safety and security of their space assets, the possibility of space becoming the fourth dimension of the warfare has been taken for granted. In the Indian context, the threat of cyber terrorism has assumed serious proportions with a number of terrorist groups targeting India making extensive use of cyber networks. For instance, Pakistani-sponsored terrorist groups make extensive use of cyber communications to "create and sustain the state of disturbance" in the Kashmir Valley. Not surprisingly, the Government of India, with a view to countering cyber attacks, has come out with a decision to enforce stricter norms for foreign communications equipment vendors and service providers. As a part of this strategy, the government is exploring the possibility of putting in place a National
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Testing Facility fully well-equipped to certify all imported software and hardware procured for key information systems used by Indian agencies including the security establishment. Indian security agencies have been expressing concern about malware or spyware embedded into imported hardware that could ultimately be exploited by unfriendly countries to hack the information networks with serious consequences for India. On another front, with a view to securing vital areas such as banking, defence, railways, civil aviation, atomic energy as well as oil and gas, there is a proposal to set up a high-powered computer emergency responsive team for each of these sectors. In a development that has rattled the Indian defence establishment and security set up, the possible role of Indian Army officials in a suspected cyber-espionage case following the hacking of a computer system of a Major of the Indian Army located in the Andaman island is being probed. Investigating agencies are now probing the circumstances leading to the "cyber security breach" leading to the siphoning-off of "highly sensitive and top secret" data by Pakistan. Whether this leak was deliberate or due to the "devious doings" of Pakistan-based hackers, no one is sure as yet. But one disturbing feature of the whole episode was that the files found in the computer system of the Major were beyond the sphere of his work. Incidentally, Andaman and Nicobar deployment is a part of the tri-service command where all the three wings of the Indian defence set-up work in unison under the overall command of the Integrated Defence Staff (IDS). One of the theories doing the rounds is that the computer of the Major in the Andamans was accessed from two proxy
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servers. The location of one of the servers has been traced to Pakistan while there is no clarity on the origin of the other server. A forensic report makes it clear that some vital files and e-mails were deleted from the computer after it was seized by the authorities. Significantly, the Major came under the shadow of suspicion after a tip-off from American intelligence agencies that were busy studying the content of suspicious internet communications as part of their wider probe related to the Lashkar-e-Taiba operative David Headly. To their surprise, the American probe agencies detected a user in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands transmitting a picture of a serving Indian Brigadier who was attending a training programme in the US to a computer based in Pakistan. This was how the needle of suspicion was pointed towards the Indian Army Major located in the Andaman. Amidst this bleak scenario, it is appropriate that the Indian Army has directed its officials to keep away from social networking sites, including Twitter, Facebook and Orkut. They have been asked not to post sensitive information like their rank, unit or posting location. Not too long ago, Chinese hackers are known to have used social networking sties to break into the computer systems of the Indian defence establishment. On its part the Indian Army has decided to crack the whip on erring and defaulting Army officials. Counter-espionage agencies in the country have been directed to take up the challenge of tracking and monitoring social networking portals more strictly and initiate action against erring officials. As part of the long-term plan to ward off the threat of cyber espionage originating from unfriendly countries, India is now working towards preparing a blueprint for counter-cyber warfare. According to a proposal now receiving the serious attention of January 2011
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g COVERSTORY the National Security Council, Indian agencies may be asked to enhance capabilities to exploit the shortcoming in the information systems of the countries that are inimical to India and also collect online intelligence of their important military activities including defence build-ups. The proposed blueprint includes plans to set up exclusive laboratories in research institutions to simulate cyber attacks with the assistance of ethical hackers. In addition, these specialised laboratories would be the focal points for training intelligence agencies for offensive and defensive cyber techniques. As things stand now, the National Technical Research Organisation (NTRO), the Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) as well as the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) will be the key players in giving a practical shape to this blueprint of immense national interest. In particular, the plan also points out to the possibility of setting up early-warning capabilities about impending attacks on the country's information systems and evolving expertise in the area of cyber forensics. Meanwhile, a well-documented study of the future of geo-political relations with China, brought out by the US military, reveals that the Chinese government is moving ahead vigorously with a well-conceived plan to develop a full-fledged cyber warfare division. The report makes it clear that the Chinese government is assembling a team to deal with "electronic and online arenas". Chinese warfare strategists are clear that by crippling or destroying the economic, communications and strategic networks and infrastructure, it is possible to bring the adversaries to heels. In the ultimate analysis, cyber warfare can prove even more deadly than ballistic missile strikes. Clearly, in a cyber war, the adversary is not only invisible but also attacks could be mounted with a high degree of unpredictability on civilian and defence assets. Stealth and anonymity are the other advantages of a well-planned cyber war. Because cyber communications is still in an evolutionary mode, there is no fool-proof firewall with which to protect the information systems from the manipulations and machinations of well-trained and highly-motivated hackers. That China has for quite sometime been active in siphoning off of sensitive and strategically significant information stored in the computer systems from across the world, including India, became clear after the release of the report, Shadows in the Cloud in April 2010. This well-documented report is considered a tribute to the www.geopolitics.in
painstaking research by a team of experts from Information Warfare Monitor and the Shadowserver Foundation. While Information Warfare Monitor is a joint endeavour of the Citizen Lab, Munk School of Global Affairs, University of Canada, and SecDev Group, an operational consultancy group located in Ottawa, the Shadowserver Foundation set up in 2004 is composed of volunteer security professionals specialising in monitoring malware and malicious attacks on computer systems. This report went to reveal — beyond the shadow of doubt — that Chinese hackers could break into high security computers systems belonging to governments, diplomatic missions, as well as business and industry, from across the world. In addition to hacking the information networks of Indian defence establishments and Indian diplomatic missions in various parts of the world, Chinese cyber spies had also targeted leading Indian daily, The Times of India, FICCI (Federation of Indian Chamber of Commerce and Industry), DLF India, Tata Group, Indian Railways, New Delhibased strategic think tank Institute for Defence Studies and Analysis (IDSA), the
INDIA IS WORKING TOWARDS PREPARING A BLUEPRINT FOR COUNTER CYBER WARFARE NIC (National Informatics Centre) as well as many multi-national corporations operating in India. As it is, the Indian defence setup has always been suspicious of possible cyber attacks originating from China. Although the identity and motivation of the hackers are not known, there is ample evidence to show that the entire operations were directed from a site in Chengdu in China. As pointed out by a report in the New York Times,"the intruders pilfered classified and restricted information from the highest levels of the Indian Defence Ministry." Among the institutions targeted by the Chinese hackers were the National Security Council Secretariat, 21 Mountain Artillery Brigade based in the North-East and Air Force Station in New Delhi. What's more, the computer systems being operated by Indian
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military colleges were also taken over by the elusive Chinese cyber spies. Some of the documents stolen by Chinese hackers are known to include secret assessment of the security situation in Assam, Manipur, Nagaland and Tripura as well as the Maoist insurgency in India. In the aftermath of Chinese cyber invasion, Defence Minister A K Antony had called upon the Indian armed forces to coordinate closely with various national cyber agencies for evolving a crisis management plan to counter the looming threat of cyber terrorism. While addressing the United Commanders Conference held in New Delhi in April 2010, Antony observed, "Of late, extraordinary and unprecedented cyber crimes have taken place across the globe, exposing gaping holes in cyber security systems. Although Defence Services at all levels have taken steps to counter cyber threat through stringent implementation of cyber security policy, there is still a requirement to ensure that all loopholes in this regard are suitably plugged." Significantly, a year before the India-specific cyber espionage from mainland China came to light, the same research group had tracked a cyber spy network in Hainan island of China, which had successfully managed to siphon off classified documents from governments and private organisations in more than a 100 countries including the Tibetan government-in-exile headed by His Holiness The Dalai Lama. In this instance, Chinese hackers are known to have exploited a system called Ghostnet to steal the files from the information network of the Tibetan government-in-exile. As it is, for long the Dalai Lama's office was concerned over the possibility of Chinese cyber spies hacking into its computers. Investigations went to show that Chinese hackers had copied and stolen files from the computer network of the Dalai Lama and his Tibetan government-in-exile. The Chinese government has vehemently denied the involvement of Beijing in the cyber espionage endeavour originating from mainland China. In the absence of a clear-cut proof and clinching evidence to establish the involvement of the Chinese government, the Indian gssovernment has decided against taking up the issue with the authorities in Beijing. But India should take all precautionary measures and initiate a technically-resurgent action plan to insulate itself against the threat of cyber espionage emanating from across the borders. That is simply because cyber spies have no physical boundaries to negotiate while giving a practical shape to their "evil designs". January 2011
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CHINA’S STRATEGY: China is trying to resolve its emerging territorial and boundary disputes by raw show of strength rather than negotiations
INFOWAR STRATEGY M China is more convinced than ever that as far as the PLA is concerned, a military revolution with information warfare as the core has reached the stage where efforts must be made to catch up and overtake rivals. GURMEET KANWAL examines the possibilities under these circumstances
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ANY OF Asia’s leaders met at the East Asia Summit in Hanoi in the last week of October 2010 to discuss geo-strategic and economic issues of common interest. However, most of the discussions on the sidelines of the summit focussed on China’s aggressive posturing in its area of influence. China’s recent assertiveness in the South China Sea and belligerence towards Japan are early indicators of its emerging proclivity to settle territorial and boundary disputes by force January 2011
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g SPOTLIGHT rather than through diplomatic negotiations. India’s unresolved territorial and boundary dispute with China and an undemarcated Line of Actual Control (LAC) on the Indo-Tibetan border do not augur well for long-term peace and stability between these two Asian giants. China’s continuing opposition to India’s nuclear weapons programme; its nuclear and missile collusion and intimate defence cooperation with Pakistan; its support to the military regime in Myanmar; its inroads into Nepal; increasing activities in the Bay of Bengal; its attempts to isolate India in the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF); and, its relentless efforts to increase its influence in Bhutan and Bangladesh — are all pointers to a carefully orchestrated plan aimed at the strategic encirclement of India.
EMERGING MILITARY DOCTRINE The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is rapidly modernising itself and is known to be preparing to fight a “limited border war under hi-tech conditions”. According to the White Paper on China’s National Defence (2000), “China is engaged in developing a “revolutionised, modernised and regularised people’s army with Chinese characteristics. (It is) endeavouring to transform its armed forces from a numerically superior to a qualitatively superior type and from a manpower-intensive to a technology-intensive type, as well as to train high-quality personnel and improve the modernisation of weaponry in order to comprehensively enhance the armed forces combat effectiveness.”
CHINA IS ENGAGED IN DEVELOPING A MODERNISED PEOPLE’S ARMY WITH CHINESE CHARACTERISTICS Since China’s ignominious incursion into Vietnam in 1979, PLA doctrine has evolved from Mao’s “people’s war” to “people’s war under modern conditions” through a “limited/local war” phase to the current doctrine introduced in 1993. The new doctrine is more assertive than previously and is not bound by any restrictions to confine and limit future conflict to within China’s national boundaries. Underpinning the new professionalism of the PLA is the basic doctrine of “active defence” (jiji fangyu) that seeks to conduct “people’s war under modern conditions” (better understood as “local wars under hi-tech conditions” — gaojishu tiaojian xia de jubu zhanzheng. The ‘active defence’ doctrine calls for integrated, deep strikes — a concentration of superior firepower that is to be utilised to destroy the opponent’s retaliatory capabilities through pre-emptive strikes employing longrange artillery, short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) and precision-guided munitions.
David Shambaugh, a well-known China scholar in the US, has written: “Rather than conducting a ‘people’s war’ (a strategy to ‘lure the enemy in deep’ into one’s own territory), the PLA doctrine of ‘active defence’ calls for forward positioning, frontier defence, engagement of the enemy at or over the border and potential engagement in conflict beyond China’s immediate periphery… this doctrine is essentially pro-active and seeks to take the battle into enemy territory.” Beijing has defined the following five likely limited war scenarios: Military conflict with neighbouring countries in a limited region; military conflict on territorial waters; undeclared air attack by enemy countries; territorial defence in a limited military operation; and, punitive offensive with a minor incursion into a neighbouring country. The new doctrine and the strategy and tactics associated with it have been influenced by the lessons of Gulf War I in 1991 and the Iraq War of 2003, both of which have been extensively studied by Chinese scholars. The doctrine requires the creation of a capability to project force across China’s borders through rapid deployment, conventional SRBMs and cruise missiles, information warfare, electronic warfare, precision-guided munitions, nightfighting capabilities and other advanced military technologies. China also follows ‘anti-access’ strategies to deny access to the adversary to its planned launch pads in an endeavour to prevent buildup of forces for a war against China. Planning for anti-access strategies flows from the apprehension that if superior, well-equipped forces (like the US and its allies) are allowed to arrive in the war zone with the force levels and in the time frame planned by them, they are bound to prevail. The Chinese calculate that “by mounting a credible threat to do so, they will be able to deter the United States from intervening in the first place, or at least limit the scale and scope of that intervention”. The Chinese aim to deter a conflict or at least delay the opponent’s preparation till the PLA is better prepared to react. The PLA seeks to achieve this aim through attacks against air bases and ports and other elements of the logistics chain and against information systems so as to disrupt command and control during build-up. While anti-access strategies are unlikely to succeed in preventing conflict completely, these could impose considerable delay and caution during build-up.
RMA WITH CHINESE CHARACTERISTICS ENHANCING MILITARY CAPABILITIES: The People’s Liberalisation Army is modernising itself and preparing to fight the next generation hi-tech war
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The PLA expects to fight the next war under conditions of what it calls “inform ationisation” or “informationalisation”. In January 2011
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g SPOTLIGHT the White Paper on National Defence (2004), informationisation was explained only in general terms, but bears repeating: “To adapt itself to the changes both in the international strategic situation and the national security environment and rise to the challenges presented by the RMA (Revolution in Military Affairs) worldwide, China adheres to the military strategy of active defence and works to speed up the RMA with Chinese characteristics: To take the road of composite and leapfrog development. To build a strong military by means of science and technology. To deepen the reform of the armed forces. To step up preparations for military struggle.” PLA analysts have called the ongoing RMA an “informationised military revolution”. It emerges that informationisation “clearly relates to the PLA’s ability to adopt information technologies to command, intelligence, training and weapon systems. This would include broad investment in new automatic command systems linked by fiber-optic Internet, satellite and new high-frequency digital radio systems… The PLA can also contest the information battle space with its new space-based, airborne, naval and ground-based surveillance and intelligence gathering systems and its new anti-satellite, anti-radar, electronic warfare and information warfare systems… There is increasing ‘information content’ for new PLA weapons as it moves to link new space, airborne and ELINT (Electronic Signals Intelligence) sensors to missile, air, naval and ground-based ‘shooters’ to enable all its services to better use new precisionstrike weapons”. According to General Liu Huaqing, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, “Information warfare and electronic warfare are of key importance, while fighting on the ground can only exploit the victory. Hence, China is more convinced (than ever) that as far as the PLA is concerned, a military revolution with information warfare as the core has reached the stage where efforts must be made to catch up and overtake rivals.” According to the 2004 White Paper, “In its modernisation drive, the PLA takes informationalisation as its orientation and strategic focus.” The PLA has adopted what it calls a “double historical mission” and a “leapfrog development strategy” — accelerating military informationisation while still undergoing mechanisation. Developing cyber warfare capabilities www.geopolitics.in
“RATHER THAN CONDUCTING A ‘PEOPLE’S WAR’ (A STRATEGY TO ‘LURE THE ENEMY IN DEEP’ INTO ONE’S OWN TERRITORY), THE PLA DOCTRINE OF ‘ACTIVE DEFENCE’ CALLS FOR FORWARD POSITIONING, FRONTIER DEFENCE, ENGAGEMENT OF THE ENEMY AT OR OVER THE BORDER AND POTENTIAL ENGAGEMENT IN CONFLICT BEYOND CHINA’S IMMEDIATE PERIPHERY… THIS DOCTRINE IS ESSENTIALLY PRO-ACTIVE AND SEEKS TO TAKE THE BATTLE INTO ENEMY TERRITORY.” DAVID SHAMBAUGH, WELL-KNOWN CHINA SCHOLAR
is seen as presenting a level playing field in an otherwise David versus Goliath scenario as Chinese hardware is no match to the weapons technology fielded today by the US and its allies. Recent cyber attacks directed against Taiwan and the US are indicative of the efforts to develop new techniques, viruses and logic bombs. Information warfare will be crucial in the opening phases of a war aimed at the reunification of Taiwan or a border conflict with India as it will be important to knock out the adversary’s communications infrastructure by cyber as well as physical means. A private army of “laptop warriors” — young civilian hackers on whom the state can bank during crises — is being developed for this purpose besides the employment of regular PLA personnel.
CONCLUSION Compared to China’s historically reactive stance of luring the enemy in deep and destroying him through strategic defence, the present doctrine is essentially pro-active and seeks to take the battle into enemy territory. It also strives to achieve surprise in a pro-active manner that is demonstrated by new “quick-strike” tactics. The aim is to catch the enemy unprepared in order to inflict substantial damage on strategic targets and disrupt logistics to gain psychological ascendancy. While the land frontier is expected to con-
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tinue to generate some local tensions, the CMC has identified space and the oceans as the new areas where future conflict might take place. China is modernising rapidly and steadily enhancing its military capabilities. The military gap between China and India is growing as India’s military modernisation is constrained by its low defence expenditure, which is now less than two per cent of the GDP. The Chinese are continuing to drag their feet over resolving the territorial and boundary dispute with India. Hence, China poses a long-term strategic challenge to India as a competing regional power in Asia, but will remain a military threat till the territorial and boundary dispute is resolved. India needs to take this reality into account and distinguish between what China professes, that is peaceful co-existence, and what it actually does. In the near future, a situation of tenuous peace and tranquility is likely to continue to prevail along India’s Himalayan frontier. It will be punctuated increasingly by patrol face-offs, Chinese incursions and intrusions across the LAC and new claims on Indian territory as happened in the finger area of the Sikkim plateau in May-June 2008. (The author is Director, Centre for Land Warfare Studies, New Delhi) January 2011
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How serious are the links between Indian Maoists and Pakistani militant outfits?
Photo courtesy: janayuddha.blogspot.com
THE ‘PAK’ CONNECTION
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B R I E F S CRPF TRAINING CENTRE IN BENGAL’S NAXAL HOTBED THE CRPF is setting up a training centre and four barracks for its jawans in West Bengal, which is to come up on 212 acres of land at West Midnapore — one of the three districts affected by Left Wing Extremism (LWE). The four places where the camps and the offices will be set up include Narayanpur, Bhadutala, Rangamati and Bhinsol. At present, 33 companies of CRPF are camping in the three LWE-affected districts of West Midnapore, Purulia and Bankura, with 24 companies — the highest — at West Midnapore. About two months ago, the CRPF shifted its eastern headquarters from Chhattisgarh’s Raipur to Kolkata due to security reasons.
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IAP FOR NAXAL-HIT DISTRICTS THE CENTRAL government has approved the much talked-about Integrated Action Plan (IAP) for Naxal-affected districts that envisages governance reforms and devolution of power to grassroots’ institutions in these areas. The IAP will be initially implemented in 35 of the worst-affected districts in the Red Corridor, with funding of `25 crore each for flagship programmes like the MNREGS (Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme) and midday meal scheme among others. The overall plan envisages a `13,742 crore outlay for 60 affected districts to be disbursed in the next three years. The Planning Commission, which was instrumental in preparing the IAP, had been keen to increase its scope to all affected districts in this fiscal but Home Minister P Chidambaram’s line that the 35 worst-affected districts should take it up first, appears to have prevailed. The Planning Commission had set five parameters for the districts to benefit from the plan, which included those districts having 25 per cent and above tribal population, 50 per cent poverty ratio and a 30 per cent forest cover.
Naxal Affected Districts
ARMY TO CAMP IN RED BASTAR THE ARMY is setting up a massive training base at the doorsteps of the worst-affected Naxal combat zone in Bastar, marking its presence in the war against Maoists. Manoeuvre ranges have been finalised in Narayanpur district where training will be given to the troops. The 100 sq km area lies in the foothills of Abujhmad, a thickly-forested plateau, straddling Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra. It is one of the only regions of India unsurveyed by the government and considered out of bounds for the administration, entirely controlled by insurgents, and often described as a Maoist-liberated zone.
While the Army leadership emphasises that its plans are limited to training and there will be no active troop deployment against the Maoist insurgency, it is believed that the training facility would necessitate logistical support to the police forces if the need arises. Since Maoists ambushed and killed more than hundred CRPF men in Bastar this summer — incidentally one of the ambushes took place close to the proposed training range — an intense debate has raged over whether at all the Army should be drawn into anti-Maoist operations.
The CRPF has also asked for 30 acres near Kolkata for free to set up a training camp for its Mahila Battalion. The state government, however, is yet to zero in on the land. The Centre, meanwhile, has allotted money to Bengal to set up a school for the Counter Insurgency Force at Salua in West Midnapore. www.geopolitics.in
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SURVEYING OF RIVERINE GAPS THE GOVERNMENT has approved a new project for increased surveillance of riverine gaps along the Indo-Pak border on the Punjab frontier. The Border Security Force (BSF) will get new infrastructure for the project. The new infrastructure would be the first of its kind in the country and could be immensely useful in critical situations. The infrastructure would include illumination of the points along the riverine gaps and raising of new posts.
RAJARHAT TO HOUSE NSG COMMANDOS FOR KOLKATA & EASTERN REGION JUST FIVE days ahead of the second anniversary of the Mumbai terror attack, the two-yearlong search for a training centre for the elite National Security Guards (NSG) came to an end in Kolkata with the hub set to come up on a 300-acre plot of land at Jagadishpur-Rajarhat area near the Dum Dum airport. The Union Ministry of Home Affairs is paying `600 crore to the state government to acquire the land. It is to be based on the model of the NSG hub in Manesar. Following the 26/11 attack, Union Home Minister P Chidambaram had announced the setting-up of four more NSG hubs — in Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai and Hyderabad — in the country. By choosing a 300-acre plot for the elite unit, the NSG has cut down on its demand for a 600acre plot. The unit will respond to any terror attack that may take place in any state of the eastern region.
At present, the NSG unit in Kolkata is stationed at a temporary barrack at Badu — 25km from the Dum Dum airport. It regularly conducts mock drills at different vital installations — the last one having been held at the Metro station at Esplanade.
BSF JAWAN CAN NOW CATCH SOME SLEEP
INDIA’S JAWANS guarding the borders can finally catch some sleep. The Border Security Force (BSF) has asked all units to give the men and women www.geopolitics.in
deployed along the borders six hours sleep every 24 hours, and a day off every week. So far, BSF personnel could not sleep for more than two hours at a stretch, it is said, causing much anguish to the personnel in the force, which, incidentally is short of manpower, and keeps an eye on more than 6,600 km of Indian borders. In the paramilitary forces, there was no concept of a holiday. On their formal holidays, the jawans would still not be able to leave their border outposts. But now the situation will change for them, except those who are deployed in highly sensitive areas.
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INTERNAL SECURITY
RUBBER BULLETS TO DISPERSE MOBS Trial runs for firing rubber bullets from Kalashnikov automatic rifles to control mobs have been completed. Following that, a decision to use rubber bullets was taken during a meeting of senior officials of the Ministry of Home Affairs which has constituted a special group to analyse various methods needed for controlling violent crowds with the least force in the backdrop of large-scale violence in the Kashmir Valley this summer. It is learnt that the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) conducted the field trials for using the weapons, the first of which were introduced in 1947. They would be seen in action soon particularly in the valley. The use of rubber bullets will lessen the risk of fatalities while controlling crowds, it is hoped. The rubber bullets from the AK-47 rifles may not prove fatal if not fired from a close range and if they don’t hit a vital organ. AK-47, a selective-fire, gasoperated 7.62x39mm assault rifle, was first developed in the Soviet Union by Mikhail Kalashnikov. AK-47 stands for Kalashnikov automatic rifle, 1947 model. Another riot-controlling device that has been cleared is the ‘dazzler’, which uses laser beams to disperse mobs by causing temporary blindness. These may also be handed over to security forces operating in Kashmir-like situations soon. The dazzler may help in restricting stonepelters, as it can be used towards individuals, rendering them temporarily blind. These devices can be useful in restricting mobs between a range of 50 metres and 250 metres. January 2011
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AND THE NAXALITES BEN WEST analyses the often-repeated charge of cooperation between Pakistani militant outfits and Indian Naxals
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ndian Maoist militants, known as Naxalites, have been meeting with members of the outlawed Pakistani militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), according to the Director-General of Police for Chhattisgarh. Based on information from a police source, state police chief Vishwa Ranjan said on November 11, 2010, that two LeT operatives attended a Naxalite meeting in April or May. While their presence at the meeting still needs to be corroborated, the chief said, it appears very likely that the Naxalites held the meeting to adopt a new policy and plans for increasing “armed resistance” in order to seize political power in India. Indian authorities are using the alleged meeting between LeT operatives and Naxalites as evidence that Pakistan is trying to forge relationships with the Naxalites, which India has long suspected. India blamed the LeT for the 2008 Mumbai attacks and the 2001 Parliament attack. For the Indian public, LeT also has become synonymous with Pakistani intelligence operations. The group that Indian officials refer to as “LeT”, however, is no longer an ally of Pakistan and has changed so much in
NAXALITE WEAPON: AK-47
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recent years that we have started to refer to it and similar groups as “neo-LeT”. Before this latest accusation, Indian officials implicated at least six other militant groups in Naxalite activities (with varying degrees of Pakistani support). Linking the estimated 10,000-strong Naxalites to militant groups backed by Pakistan, India's main geopolitical rival and primary source of external security threats, creates a “nightmare” scenario for India. Indeed, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has labelled the Naxalites “the biggest internal security challenge” to India. Taken at face value, reports of such an alliance lead to visions of well-trained, well-disciplined Naxal militants expanding their near-daily attacks on low-level rural targets in eastern India (known as the “Red Corridor”) to political and high-tech targets in Kolkata, Hyderabad or even New Delhi. But such visions are alarmist and do not reflect the true nature of the very limited PakistaniNaxalite relationship.
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STRATFOR has watched Indian officials link Pakistan to the Naxalites before, but we have yet to see significant changes on the ground that would give any credence to the scenario outlined above. Many Indian officials are equally insistent that no connections exist between Naxalites and Pakistan. Although the Naxalites have provided rhetorical support for Kashmiri (and other anti-Indian groups) opposition to New Delhi over the past year, there has been little action to back up the rhetoric. The Indians have long feared that outside powers would manipulate grassroots’ groups in India and further destabilise an already regionalised country. When the Naxalite movement began in the 1960s, New Delhi feared Beijing was trying to get a foothold in India, and for the past 50 years, India has demonised Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence directorate (ISI) for allegedly supporting militant operations in India. To better understand the allegation that Pakistan is supporting the Naxalites, we have decided to investigate the sources of Naxalite weapons and training to get an idea of how much outside help the Naxalites rely on in the first place, since this is one way to measure the level of outside assistance. The study below focuses on what types of arms Naxalites have access to, how they got them and who they got them from. While we did find evidence of some Pakistani involvement in supplying the weapons through third parties, the Naxalites appear to remain a very self-reliant group that has not established a January 2011
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5 KEY SOURCES FOR WEAPONS strong partnership with Pakistan when it comes to weapons and training.
WEAPONS Local Indian media sources report that Naxalite forces have an arsenal of approximately 20,000 weapons — an average of two weapons per soldier. The Naxalites have obtained this arsenal from four different sources: From Indian security forces, either by Naxalite raids on their outposts in Naxalite-controlled areas or bribing or coercing members of the security forces to sell or give them firearms and ammunition, along with ballistic vests and tactical gear, including night-vision optics. This is the source of most Naxalite weapons, which include Indian-made assault rifles, light machine guns and carbines that fire 5.62mm NATO ammunition; variants of the AK-47 that fire 7.62mm rounds; and locally made shotguns of various gauges. Israeli-made sniper rifles have also been found in Naxalite caches on a few occasions, like the Galil 7.62mm rifles that India acquired from Israel in efforts to target Naxalite leaders in the first place. Theft from businesses operating in the Naxalite-controlled areas, including fertilizer distributors and mining companies that maintain stocks of explosives, blasting caps and detonators. Local arms factories run directly by Naxalites or other criminal groups. These operations demonstrate a wide range of craftsmanship, from assembling makeshift weapons from discarded parts to more advanced forging processes. www.geopolitics.in
These factories also produce homemade mortar rounds and components for improvised explosive devices. Procuring foreign weapons, ammunition and explosives from external militant and criminal groups operating within and outside of India. Details on the types of weapons procured this way are available from seizures of weapons shipments into India that have included rifles in the .315- to .30-06-calibre range. Such shipments are traded for smuggling services or purchased with funds from banditry, extortion or revolutionary taxes. Purchasing weapons from the outside is very expensive. According to a 2009 India Daily News article, Naxalite expenditure reports seized by police showed that, over a six-month period, one zone command spent more than three-quarters of the unit's budget on weapons ($70,214), with the rest ($20,604) spent on supplies. Such evidence suggests that Naxalite weapon procurements from the outside have their limitations; obtaining them locally is far cheaper and can be done by virtually any Naxalite fighter. The Naxalite arsenal is vast and diverse, consisting of weapons manufactured in China, Russia, the United States, Pakistan and India. Photographs of Naxalite units in training or on patrols show fighters wielding a variety of rifles in different calibres and conditions, indicating a lack of weapons uniformity across Naxalite units. While this does suggest a certain level of resourcefulness among the Naxalites, it also means that parts and ammunition are not interchangeable, which is an important tactical limitation. If one rifle breaks, its parts cannot be easily replaced. If
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one militant runs out of ammunition, he cannot turn to his neighbour for more rounds. Standardised weapons are a key advantage for organised militias (the Taliban, for example, virtually all use a variant of the AK-47), an advantage the Naxalites appear to be lacking. The lack of weapons uniformity among Naxalite groups indicates that they do not have a benefactor that has bestowed on them a reliable, standardised arsenal and have had to build up their own from scratch.
OUTSIDE SUPPLIERS There are numerous reports in open-source media in India and elsewhere that link Naxalites to a number of militant and criminal groups throughout South Asia. These groups interact with Maoists from Nepal, secessionists in India's restive northeast, ISI-backed Islamists from Bangladesh, criminals from Myanmar and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka. Weapons flow among these groups in a region that has historically been a rich environment for secessionist movements. The British originally encouraged strong regional identities throughout the Indian subcontinent to prevent the various ethnic groups from uniting in opposition to British colonial rule. The Pakistanis continued that strategy in order to maintain leverage over India, supporting anti-Indian groups primarily in the contested Kashmir region and later in Bangladesh (formerly East Pakistan), which they used as bases for extending their activities into India. India also supported anti-Pakistani groups in Bangladesh in an attempt to offset this Pakistani pressure. The Naxalites have benefited from this arrangement, directly from foreign powers January 2011
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There is evidence that the ISI is The connections above show only links providing weapons and ammunition to between Naxalites and Pakistan via third the Naxalites in exchange for money or parties, which makes it hard to measure services, mostly through third parties like the influence that Pakistan has over Naxthe United Liberation Front of Asom alite militants. Pakistan likely wants to (ULFA) or the ostensible Bangladeshi milkeep its activities in India covert so as not itant leader Shailen Sarkar (both are to exacerbate an already tense diplomatNAXAL AGGRESSION: In the worst case of described in more detail below). Naxalite ic situation. Murky, circuitous relationguerrilla warfare, Maoists blew up a railway track leaders in India deny cooperating with ships are most likely preferred in this in Jharkhand killing over 100 people Pakistan but have very publicly pledged kind of environment. their support for separatist movements Indeed, Pakistan does not necessarily in India. STRATFOR sources in the Indian need much more than murky, circuitous a secessionist movement in the northarmy say they are investigating but still lack relationships in order to keep pressure on east Indian state of Nagaland. Indian the evidence to prove a direct link between New Delhi. The Naxalites are a low-mainteHome Secretary G K Pillai said in June the Naxalites and the ISI, since the Pakistanance, self-sustaining movement that will that the leader of NSCN-IM helped nis continue to play a peripheral role. continue to undermine Indian rule in the members of the Communist Party of The groups below are reported to have country's east — Pakistan does not need to India-Maoist (CPI-M) smuggle weapons had contact with the Naxalites and to have expend more resources to sustain this, and through Myanmar and Bangladesh. provided various levels of support. Some of the Naxalites are likely wary of undermining Indian officials in the state of Tripura these groups have established links to the their own local legitimacy by accepting too accused the NSCN-IM of working jointly ISI, which makes them possible conduits of much assistance from an outside governwith the ISI in assisting militant cadres. contact and support between Pakistan and ment. While something like a standardised The People's War Group (PWG) was a the Naxalites. arsenal compliments of the ISI would militant faction of the Communist Party benefit the Naxalites operationally, such a of India-Marxist/Leninist until 2004, ULFA, one of the largest, most violent move would be a high-risk, low-reward effort when it left and helped form the CPI-M, secessionist movements in India's which is the political arm of the Naxalite for Islamabad, which seeks to operate very northeast, is accused of working with ISI movement. In 2004, the PWG received subtly in India for the time being while Islamist assets along the Indianbomb-making materials and training tensions over the 2008 Mumbai attacks conBangladeshi border, where it controls from groups like ULFA and NSCN-IM in tinue to cool off. smuggling routes through the Siliguri Bangladesh in exchange for smuggling The lack of evidence of an institutional corridor. The Indian government accusdrugs into India, an effort organised by relationship between Naxalites and Pakistan es the Naxalites of working with ULFA to the ISI between 2000 and 2004, when the does not mean that personal relationships smuggle drugs and counterfeit money PWG was not under the Naxalite between ISI assets and Naxalite cadres could through Siliguri on behalf of the ISI in umbrella. not develop through the limited interaction exchange for weapons and explosives. now taking place. A combination of more The People's Liberation Army of LTTE is an ethnic secessionist moveaggressive people from both sides could cerment in northern Sri Lanka that was Manipur (PLAM) is a secessionist group tainly lead to more concerted attacks in defeated by Sri Lanka's military in 2009 in the northeastern Indian state of India, reminiscent of the 2008 serial bombafter 26 years of fighting. According to a Manipur. According to Indian security ings in cities throughout India. surrendering Naxalite commander, officials, the respective political wings of Such attacks, however, would likely be LTTE militants taught Naxalites how to the PLAM and the Naxalites signed a more of a one-off exception. For the time handle mines and grenades at a camp in document in October 2010 pledging to being, reports of Pakistani-Naxalite cooperaBastar, Chhattisgarh state. LTTE fighters “overthrow the … Indian reactionary tion will continue to surface, though this have fled Sri Lanka since their 2009 and oppressive regime”. However, there cooperation will probably involve third-pardefeat, and Indian authorities suspect are no documented instances of PLAM ty groups that give both Pakistan and the that Tamil fighters are providing training providing material support to the NaxNaxalites plausible deniability. Until we see for Naxalites in exchange for safe haven. alites. Indian intelligence agencies indications from either the Naxalites or PakNepalese Maoists comprise the militant report that a militant from Manipur who istan that they are willing to establish more wing of the Unified Communist Party of was arrested in 2007 revealed that the robust connections and become more Nepal. They have exchanged training PLAM leadership was in frequent conaggressive toward India, a coordinated and weapons with Indian Naxalites, and tact with the LeT leadership in 2006 as militant campaign remains unlikely. there are also reports of Nepalese directed by the ISI. Maoists receiving medical care at NaxThe National Social Council of Nagaalite camps in India. (Republished with permission of STRATFOR) land-Issac Muviah branch (NSCN-IM) is www.geopolitics.in
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The Central Police Organisation officers are an unhappy lot, courtesy the Sixth Pay Commission. Not only are the salary structures skewed in favour of the Indian Police Service officers, the recruitment and promotion rules too are unfavourable, as ROHIT SRIVASTAVA found out after meeting officers from the paramilitary forces
he Sixth Pay Commission (SPC) has created a number of anomalies in the paramilitary forces. The paramilitary force officers are a dissatisfied lot, especially with the introduction of new tenure policy for IPS (Indian Police Service) and recruitment rules for cadre officers. The SPC has seen opposition from across the central services, particularly the armed forces. Everyone in the country is aware of the grievances of the armed forces but rarely has any one heard about the discontent among the paramilitary cadre officers, which began with the Sixth Pay Commission and has compounded with the new tenure policy for the IPS on central deputation and the new recruitment rules
for the Central Police Organisation (CPO) cadre officers. The SPC has brought down the grade of the CPO cadre officers in the second in command (2IC) ranks, equivalent to a Lt. Colonel in the Army. A Lt Colonel is in the pay band (PB) of four whereas the 2IC is in the PB of three. This has resulted in a difference of around `20,000 in salary. A 2IC officer in the BSF told geopolitics: “Army and BSF both operate on the LoC (Line of Control) together. If a unit each of the Army and BSF are in the area and by chance the commanding officers of either are not present, then by grade of pay (which decides the seniority) the Lt Colonel will be the senior officer even though the BSF 2IC has more experience.� It generally takes an offi-
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cer 18 years to become a 2IC in the paramilitary forces while now after the Ajay Vikram Singh Committee (in 2001, the Ministry of Defence formed a committee, headed by then Special Secretary, MoD, with representatives of the three Services with an aim to achieve ‘combat effectiveness’ by bringing down the age profile of the battalion/brigade-level commanders, which submitted its report in February 2003) recommendation, an Army officer becomes a Lt Colonel after 13 years. It is important to note that the Army at present has more than one Lt Colonel in any of its units unlike the CPO that still has only one 2IC in any unit. In many of the Army units, a Lt Colonel heads companies. In an army battalion, there are three companies but in many of the CPO battalions, the number of companies is around six or seven. Thus the workload in the paramilitary battalion is far more in comparison to the Army. The matter doesn’t rest there. Promotion opportunities in the CPOs also play a significant role. Promotions in the paramilitary forces are based on vacancies and not on the years of service. The paramilitary forces have gone through a phase of abrupt, unplanned expansion creating numerous bottlenecks across the hierarchy. When the forces expanded the induction of the officers increased and so did the number of top posts. In these forces, therefore, promotions take place smoothly. According www.geopolitics.in
to an ITBP (Indo Tibetan Border Police) officer, there was a time when officers in the expanding forces would get quick promotions and within three-four years of service an Assistant Commandant (AC) would become a Deputy Commandant (DC) but now the situation has reversed. However, forces like the Sashastra Seema Bal and ITBP which have seen expansion recently, do not have to face such acute bottlenecks and thus less dissatisfaction. But the promotions have direct links with the salaries and that is hurting the officer cadre. One officer said, “I don’t want one more star but find it difficult to accept the salary loss that I incur due to this new system. For salaried persons like me `20,000 matters.” This highly decorated officer has undergone training
PROMOTIONS IN THE PARAMILITARY FORCES ARE BASED ON VACANCIES
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for promotion and is awaiting promotion orders for the last year. He further said that for promotions, credentials and decorations have very little relevance. In fact, his batchmate from the IPS is his immediate senior. Deputation to the IPS is another major issue. Sources suggest that the promotion from AC to DC generally takes seven years and from DC to 2IC another seven. The new recruitment rule of October 2010 implies that the CPO cadre officers will have to spend at least five years at the AC level to qualify for promotion to DC and similarly another five years as DC to qualify for 2IC and a further five to become a Commandant — thus at least 15 years of service to become a Commandant and another five to qualify for the post of Deputy Inspector General (DIG). Incidentally, it is in the DIG rank that an IPS cadre officer can move on deputation. So, for any cadre officer, it will take at least 20 years to become a DIG. Of all the DIG posts, one-fifth are reserved for IPS and Army officers. So, the actual opportunity available for the CPO cadre declines rapidly. The loss of pay due to these promotions is enormous if the whole career is accounted for. On the other hand, any IPS officer becomes a DIG after completion of 14 years of service. So, if two officers join the forces simultaneously and are promoted regularly, the one from the paramilitary cadre will become a DIG six years after the IPS officer. Efficiency and performance have no roles to play in the promotions. At the senior level, the system becomes uneven for the cadre officers. In the ITBP there are 56 Commandant posts that are filled entirely by cadre officers and an equal number of 2IC posts. However, at the DIG level, the number of posts shrinks to 44 with 20 per cent of them reserved for those on deputation. So, for 56 Commandants, the opportunity available to become a DIG is limited to 35. This shrinks further to three January 2011
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TO OVERCOME SHORTAGE: The Kamal Kumar Committee has been set up to make a realistic assessment of shortages existing in the different cadres
at the Inspector General (IG) rank. The sanctioned post for IG is six with half of them reserved for the IPS. To top it all, if enough cadre officers are not available with the required eligibility, then IPS officers are promoted. So, from the 35 DIGs from the cadre service, only three would make it to an IG’s post and since the Recruitment Rules (RR) mentions “if failing by IPS” or to put it simply, if the cadre officer fails to qualify for an IG’s post, then it is to be filled up by an IPS. The policymakers, therefore, were well aware that even three officers would not be available from the 456 AC appointed 25 or 30 years back. The system is totally IPS-centric at the higher level (see table below). In any state there are around 3 or 4 Director General rank officers and the intake per year per state varies but cannot be more than six or seven in the case of large states. Thus, almost half of the IPS officers would reach IG and above rank (if a state receives six or eight IPS at the Superintendent of Policelevel in first posting and it has four DG ranks — ADGP, ADG Vigilance and so on, half of the IPS officers will be able to fill the ranks of IG and above). And with the avenues available in the paramilitary forces, the late promotees would easily find themselves in these forces. www.geopolitics.in
Year of CSE 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Total
Batch 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Total Intake 56 88 88 103 103 438
Number of IPS intake over the years
(
Actual Intake 49 77 80 90 89 385
Dropouts 7 11 8 13 14 53
In the CPO, while the IPS officers have been given reservations, at another level, there is a shortage of IPS officers across the nation. The Kamal Kumar Committee (formed by the Ministry of Home Affairs and headed by Kamal Kumar, IPS to make a realistic assessment of shortages existing in the different cadres of the paramilitary as well as the growing need of IPS strength in view of the expansion plans of the various State and Central Police Organisations for 2009-2020 time period — the committed submitted its report in October 2009) recommended that the IPS intake must be increased to 130 per year for another ten years (2009-20) and additional intake of 448 officers through other means should be done to take care of shortages. Said a senior CPO cadre officer, “The system pushes IPS to the commanding officer’s chair.” The comfort level that is enjoyed between the IPS and the Ministry of Home Affairs is one of reasons for the preferential treatment being meted to the IPS. He further said that the “desire among the cadres to become DGPs is there but it is very unlikely because of the government policy”. There have been numerous suggestions that the CPO should be run by cadre officers who understand the force better and know about its everyday working and operations. But, in spite of numerous failures and loss of lives during shabbilyexecuted operations, the organisations are still run by unspecialised IPS, who are neither interested in nor inclined towards solving the problem. It is also felt that retired officers of the paramilitary do not support and voice their concerns like ex-servicemen do. The attachment that armymen have for their units, regiments and services are missing among the paramilitary veterans. In any case, since the leadership at higher levels in the CPO mostly comprises IPS officers, it doesn’t suit their interest to take sides with the cadre officers and jawans. Nor for that matter is their attachment to the organisation deep. An officer pointed out to geopolitics: “Since these are unorganised services, there are no temptations for the IPS personnel to fit in.” Whatever the reasons, the discontent among the officers of the CPOs and their gradual devaluation is creating bad blood, which can result in a backlash in many different ways. An officer summed it up quite eloquently: “The government’s Sixth Pay Commission has created a class.” January 2011
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THE OTHER RISING STAR Brazil, the sleeping giant has woken up
CAN INDIA RESOLVE NEPAL’S DEADLOCK?
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NEW POWERS ON THE HORIZON The two countries are far apart from each other but are not dissimilar. Over the years, moves between India and Brazil — diplomatic and economic — have brought one closer to the other. ASH NARAIN ROY believes that it will be in the interest of India to foster closer ties with Brazil, the sleeping giant that has woken up
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O THE rest need the West? That is what several geopolitical sages are presently discussing. Alluding to the growing irrelevance of the Western powers and the corresponding rise in the global clout of China and India, the New Atlanticist said recently, “The World without the West is becoming preferentially and densely interconnected.” It further said, “If during the 1990s, rising and resurgent powers tried to deepen their connection with the EuroAtlantic hub, they are now taking more steps to tighten the relationships between
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themselves to bypass the West.” The message in this prognostication is unmistakable. With the US in constant decline and losing much of its sheen as the world’s sole superpower, the focus has shifted to ‘Chindia’. The ‘elephant vs. the dragon’ debate has become the fashionable buzzword of contemporary global discourse. But Brazil too has a story to tell. India and Brazil are the two whales in the global ocean who along with South Africa have taken concrete steps to forge a neoGondwanan alliance. Since the world has looked at global trends and developments through the distorted lens of US hegemony, it has failed to give proper consideration to significant developments elsewhere. Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) and India, Brazil and South Africa (IBSA) are in the process of building parallel international systems and networks. However, besides China, only India and Brazil, the two flourishing democracies, are the likeliest candidates to rise as great powers who have the potential to become superpowers. Brazil hasn’t received the attention it deserves. In their obsession with the US and Pakistan, India’s strategic community and opinion-makers haven’t focused their glare on the importance of the India-Brazil partnership. India and Brazil are not only stable democracies, they are now trillion-dollar economies. Like India, Brazil too has made rapid strides in international affairs and
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global diplomacy. Way back in 2003, President Lula had said rather bluntly, “We will not accept any more participating in international platforms as if we were the poor little ones of Latin America, a ‘little country’ of the third world… This country has everything to be the equal of any other country.” Historically, Indian foreign policy has been shaped by a quest for global power status. IBSA initiative represents a significant avenue through which India is pursuing its leadership aspirations. Politically, IBSA fits in neatly with Delhi’s political priorities and interests in the global system, with its need to forge alliances with other developing countries. Economically, it dovetails with India’s policy to continue reforms initiated in 1991 to liberalise the Indian economy. Brazil’s dominance in Latin America is a consequence of the country’s geography, population and economic size as well as its military strength. Brazil too harbours global aspirations. To this end, it skillfully utilises multilateral institutions to stake its claim as a global actor, while also projecting itself as a bridge between the major powers and the South. Brazil regards India as integral to its strategy of promoting its economic interests by strengthening its economic linkages with continued on page 64
A STRONG BOND: India and Brazil have taken significant steps to forge meaningful ties
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The long distance kept India and Brazil apart in the past. But, with the world increasingly turning into a global village, the two countries are working hard to take their relationship to a higher level, both in range and magnitude, asserts MARCO BRANDAO, Ambassador of Brazil to India, in a candid conversation with PRAKASH NANDA
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t the outset let me say that unlike India, Brazil is a very lucky country. It is lucky because it has a stable neighbourhood, with most of the countries valuing democracy as the best political system. All our governments in the region are now democraticallyelected. And it has helped. Brazil has no problems with its neighbours. We have no border problems. We are located in a conflict-free region that includes a no-nuclear zone. We are a huge country with abundant natural resources. We do have a very cohesive social structure. Though we have a big population, it is manageable. Brazil’s foreign policy strives for global peace and stability. Our mantra is multilateralism, be it politics or economics. We do not believe in any ism, including the so-called Third-Worldism. That explains why despite our great admiration for India, Brazil did not join the Non-Aligned Movement. We strongly believe that all the global problems or disputes should be resolved through talks or negotiations. Brazil attaches the highest importance to the United Nations. That is why we are consistent in our resolve that the world body must reflect the real world. We will keep on coordinating our endeavours along with India, Japan and South Africa for the four countries getting their rightful places as the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council. It is not that countries like Brazil and India demand to be recognised as big powers. On the other hand, the world expects us to have increasingly global responsibilities, evident from the fact that we are already on the big table of G-20. I am indeed happy that during his recent visit to your country, President Obama did support India as an aspirant for the permanent membership. I do not pay much importance to the WikiLeaks’ disclosure of the American diplomats describing India, Brazil and South Africa as a “self-appointed” group working for the permanent membership. After all, we will go by what the US President says publicly, not what its diplomats think privately. As regards Brazil, even though ours is a leftof-the-centre government, we have excellent ties with the United States. Let me be very candid in admitting that in our part of the world, we cannot live without the United States. Good relations with the Unites States are absolutely essential for facilitating our economic growth. Whether it is trade or industrial growth, we cannot have a confrontationist policy towards the United States. It is not that we have no issues with the Americans, but these are to be resolved through talks only. Maybe some Latin American countries are very vocal in their criticism of the www.geopolitics.in
United States, but we are not so. In fact, Brazil and the Unites States are exemplary friends, given the quality of our interactions in such fields as tourism, culture and academics. As I have already pointed out, multilateralism is our most important diplomatic tool. As a developing country like India, we are for equitable global development. Similarly, we do not want the world to be dominated by any single country — politically and militarily. Towards this goal, we are coordinating our efforts with like-minded countries like India. India, Brazil and South Africa (IBSA) forum needs to be seen in this context. We three are democratic countries in three different regions but through consensus are acting together on burning global issues. Similarly, we have the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) platform, which I consider essentially to be an economic forum on the global economic issues, though some would like it to have political overtones as well.
TRADE BETWEEN BRAZIL AND INDIA MORE THAN TRIPLED IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS Coming specifically to Indo-Brazil bilateral relations, there are no concrete problems as such. But unfortunately, there is the distancefactor. The distance between our two countries is so huge that we do not know one another well enough. Our air and shipping links are very weak. We must do something about it. Of course, it is a growing process. But we must promote a lot of interaction between Indians and Brazilians in the fields of tourism, banking and academics. Regrettably, we do not have a single bank in India. Nor for that matter is there any Indian bank in Brazil. Our respective media does not cover news about one another. My countrymen are totally dependent on the American media to know and understand India. Same is also your story as far as Brazil is concerned. We must get together to have our own news. That is the best way to bridge the gap between our two countries. It is heartening that our political leaderships have started realising the importance of the relationship between India and Brazil.
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Politically, we are now very close. Even in the military sphere, our connection is getting stronger with each passing day. Brazil is discussing with India how to develop joint military products. My Defence Minister has visited the Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) in Bengaluru. India has already bought some planes for its VIPs from Brazil. We, through IBSA, have conducted joint military exercises. Even otherwise, our respective military officers have been exchanging visits of late. Economically speaking, trade between Brazil and India more than tripled in the last five years. Bilateral trade has increased from $2.340 billion in 2005 to $7.461 billion (October 2009 to October 2010), although it corresponds to a small proportion of the total of Brazilian exports (2.2 per cent in 2009) and of its imports (1.7 per cent in 2009). According to the Ministry of Commerce of India, for the financial year, Brazil is responsible for 0.5 per cent of the total of Indian exports and accounts for 0.73 per cent of the total of Indian imports. In relation to Brazilian exports, the sectors of crude oil (HS Code 27090010) and raw cane sugar (HS Code 17011100) represent the most dynamic sectors and account for 61.38 per cent of total exports from Brazil to India by October 2010. Regarding Brazilian imports, only “diesel” (HS Code 27101921) represents 41.01 per cent of all purchases until October 2010. Other generating sets wind-powered (HS Code 85023100), polyester-textured yarn (HS Code 54023300) and cotton yarn (HS Code 52052310) also have a relative importance in the total of Brazilian imports up to October 2010. It is a happy sign that more and more Indian businessmen are now visiting Brazil. On an average we are issuing 20 business visas every day. Indian companies have started investing in Brazil. Tata Consultancy, Mahindra Automobiles and Bajaj are already there. Some Indian companies have also invested in our sugar industry and agricultural products. Indian pharmaceutical companies are also going. We would love more and more Indian technologies in Brazil and here the sky is the limit. At the end, I must tell you that world’s purest Indian cows are only available in Brazil. Over the recent centuries, Indian cattle have got mixed with those coming from central and West Asia. But in our case, we imported pure Indian cattle long time back when we found that those from the European origin did not survive in Brazil, possibly due to the climatic factors. But Indian cattle, maybe because of common tropical weather, not only have survived but also prospered in Brazil. Our entire cattle population is almost of Indian origin. January 2011
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other developing countries. Central to Brazil’s strategy is a desire to link its domestic political priorities, including poverty reduction, with its foreign economic policy. Brazil has for long been projected as the ‘country of the future’. Today, many Brazilians would like to believe Brazil itself is the future. Brazil is the eighth biggest economy in the world. It has the largest tropical forest and largest reservoir of fresh water. It is selfsufficient in oil and gas. Petrobras is the fourth biggest company in the world, larger than Exxon Mobil, Apple and Petrochina. It has a market value of $214 billion, which is more than that of Microsoft and Wal-Mart. Petrobras will be spending over the next few years $224 billion in exploration and production. This is the largest corporate investment plan in the world at the moment. A newly-tapped oil field off the coast of Brazil could contain up to 15 billion barrels of oil. If these figures were confirmed, it would double Brazil’s known oil reserves. It would also be the biggest oil field discovered in the Americas since 1976 when Mexico found the giant Cantarell field in the Gulf of Mexico. Brazil has discovered billions of barrels of oil in the last few years, mostly in deep, pre-salt fields off its south-eastern coast. The discoveries should make Brazil one of the world’s top 10 oil producers. Brazil is an agricultural superpower. It has the largest surplus land that can be brought under cultivation. Its potential to feed the global population can be gauged by the fact that Brazil can add 130 million hectares of land which is equal to the total area cultivated by India to feed its billion-plus population. Bilateral trade between India and Brazil has picked up in the last few years. But it is still much below its potential. It is likely to increase to $10 billion in the coming threefour years from $5 billion at present. Indian companies have started showing interest in Brazil and Latin America. Renuka Sugars has made investment in Brazil worth half a billion dollars. Almost all major pharma players of India have established their presence in Brazil with supply of bulk drugs, finished formulations and establishment of manufacturing units and joint ventures. India and Brazil have begun to work together in various fields, including aviation, engineering products, agriculture-based industries, energy including ethanol, IT, banking and urban infrastructure. IT, biotechnology and pharmaceuticals are key areas where India has made investments in Brazil. Tata Consultancy Services, Ranbaxy www.geopolitics.in
and Dr Reddy’s Laboratories Limited have made a mark in Brazilian market. Finally, as R Viswanathan, India’s Ambassador to Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay, says, the gaze of Indian companies “is falling on Latin America, where hyperinflation and currency devaluation no longer dominate headlines… Latin America is becoming stable and increasingly growing and prosperous market that offers opportunities for our companies.” To a large extent, India’s decision to explore the Latin American market is guided by China’s massive investment in the region. India and Brazil have taken significant steps to forge meaningful ties in unconventional areas, including defence. An India-
The two sides have already appointed defence attaches in their respective embassies in Brasilia and in New Delhi to do the spadework for intensified military co-operation. Brazil’s Defence Minister Nelson Jobim visited India in early 2010 to prepare the ground for significant defence ties and defence cooperation. Indo-Brazilian co-operation in this sector represents a significant diversification of India’s quest for arms and defence technology. Although Brazil has few external threat perceptions, it has traditionally developed a strong indigenous defence industry, co-operation with which will considerably increase India’s options. India and Brazil have also enhanced
INDIA AND BRAZIL ARE PURSUING THE JOINT DEVELOPMENT OF HI-TECH MILITARY AIRCRAFT
co-operation in science and technology, nuclear energy, space and defence for mutual benefit. Biotechnology, information technology, marine science, and nanotechnology are other areas that have been identified where significant potential for co-operation exists. By 2050, Brazil will be the world’s fourth largest economy, outranked only by China, US and India. Brazil enjoys privileged geographic position as it doesn’t border any hostile power. The same can’t be said about China, Russia and India. Like India, Brazil’s weight in international economic and political forums has raised manifold. On issues like climate change, nuclear proliferation, food security and international trade, their positions will matter even more. The very fact that Brazil will host the World Cup Soccer and the Olympics in 2014 and 2016 respectively is recognition of its clout and potential. The sleeping giant has woken up.
Brazil joint defence committee is already operational. The two countries are now pursuing the joint development of high-technology military aircraft through continuing contacts already established between the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and Brazil’s Embraer. Embraer, one of the largest aircraft manufacturers in the world, tapping specific segments in defence aviation, is already supplying aircraft, which are used by India as part of the country’s squadron for movement of VVIPs within the country and often abroad.
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(The author, Associate Director with the Institute of Social Sciences, specialises in Latin American affairs) January 2011
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Nepal's politics is dangerously adrift and nothing can be worse — both for Nepal and its closest and most important neighbour, India. K V RAJAN looks at the scenario and offers a prescription for the path ahead
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successor to Madhav Kumar Nepal, who resigned several months ago under Maoist pressure, have yielded no results. There is considerable popular disillusionment with all the political parties, thanks to the naked display of their single-minded pursuit of power without any thought of the country's expectations or needs. There is a near-total absence or failure of all institutions (with the exception of the Army — but it is far from
certain as to how the Army will react if the present drift continues). The death of G P Koirala has removed from the scene — the one leader of stature who, whatever his shortcomings may have been, was capable of creating a sense of responsibility among party leaders. The restoration of democracy with promises of a federal structure has created an explosion of ethnic demands which is only one among
POLITICAL INSTABILITY: Nepal's political situation is like a dark tunnel with no hope of light
Photo courtesy: ?
EPAL is going downhill at an alarming rate. A consensus is essential for peace to be consolidated and the Constitution to be written — but is rendered impossible by the trust deficit between its political leaders and parties, compounded by serious inter-party as well as intra-party differences (including within the Maoist leadership). There is very little prospect of the Constitution being written even within the new deadline of May 29, 2011. Nepal continues to have two armies — one official, the other Maoist — but no Prime Minister, since repeated "elections" for the
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ful attempts to neutralise the Army's resistmany pretexts for the existing environment ance to them. It would be logical to assume of impunity and violence, precipitating a that the Maoists will not agree to integration possibly dangerous economic crisis. It is or rehabilitation of their armed cadres witharguable whether the present trends, leading out an accompanying change in the characto a disaster scenario of national as well as ter of the Nepalese Army. regional proportions, can still be reversed. A The Nepalese Army does need to become "sustainable" process towards a peaceful, more professional, more democratic, more stable and increasingly prosperous Nepal transparent, and, more accountable. It does seems a remote prospect, and India perhaps not have to get politicised in the way the needs to factor this in when considering its Maoists appear to expect: "civilian control" medium-term options. of the Army, certainly, cannot be translated At the core of this grim situation is the into its "Maoisation". While a resolution of inability or unwillingness of the Maoists to the differences between the Army and the transform themselves into a normal political Maoists on integration looks extremely diffiparty committed to peaceful democratic cult, given the entrenched positions on both processes, contrary to their assurances when none of them has attempted to moderate the sides, India's traditional contacts with the they entered into a Comprehensive Peace mindsets of Maoist cadres away from the use Nepal Army could, perhaps, be put to conAgreement with the main political parties, of undemocratic methods in pursuing their structive use so that the Maoists can be peragreed on a ceasefire, submitted to UN mongoals. Clearly, arms and use of violence are suaded that they can disarm in a result-oriitoring of their armed cadres, stood for elecconsidered necessary and useful to all ented, time-bound manner without losing tions, and came out as the single largest parMaoist factions in marginalising the tradieither their sense of security or self-respect ty in the Constituent Assembly elections in tional political parties and ensuring capture — supposedly their two principal concerns. 2008. Maoist leaders do make reassuring and consolidation of power. Maoist intentions as regards India remain noises about their commitment to "competThe Maoists see the Nepal Army as the opaque. Maoist leaders seem to be torn itive politics" (significantly, not to a multimost important hurdle in their way, and between the need to make overtures to India party democracy); but their resistance to have been making repeated but unsuccessso that it drops its reservations making serious progress on the intetowards them, and the need to maingration and rehabilitation of their tain a minimum stance of assertivemilitia, their disinterest in dismanness vis-à -vis India in order to retain tling front organisations which their credibility in the eyes of their engage in systematic intimidation cadres. The fact that India has made it and violence, and their continuing clear that a Maoist return to power is ideological rhetoric favouring a an unwelcome proposition and is "people's republic" as the ultimate widely perceived to be influencing objective, fuel serious concerns friendly political parties to oppose the about their agenda. Maoists is a complicating factor. AntiIt is now clear that there are seriIndian activities are in direct proporous ideological divisions among tion to the level of political insecurity Maoists at the top, and also a comthe Maoists feel because of India's petition for personal power. The engagement with other political playthree factions, which could be ers in Nepal. described (at the risk of oversimplifiIndia's concerns stem from four cation) as "pragmatic", "hard line" fronts: the strong anti-Indianism, and "expedient", are respectively led which seems to be an inalienable part by Baburam Bhattarai, Mohan of Maoist ideology, and which they Baidya "Kiran" and Prachanda. The have tried to spread throughout Nepal pragmatic group argues that it is in a way that threatens to take antipremature and risky to abandon the Indian sentiment to unprecedented democratic route to capturing powlevels; the frequent rhetoric suggester as being urged by the hardliners, ing keenness to intensify links with and questions the logic of an ultraIndian Naxalites; the attempt to play nationalistic, anti-India line the China card in a way which might favoured by the other two; Prachanactually threaten India's strategic da's tactical flexibility (try for peace interests in Nepal; and the stated ideand Constitution, but prepare for a ological commitment to transform revolt) keeps the party intact and Nepal's multiparty democracy into a himself at the helm of it, albeit at the North Korean or at least a Chinese cost of his eroding personal credibilGRIM SITUATION: Inability of Maoists to commit model, through the use of violence ity. All three leaders maintain their themselves for a peaceful democracy is the key reason for and non-democratic means if commitment to achieving the objecthe continuing stalemate necessary. tive of a "people's republic", and
THERE ARE SERIOUS IDEOLOGICAL DIVISIONS AMONG MAOISTS AT THE TOP
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“IF REACTIONARIES' CONSPIRACY AGAINST NEPALI PEOPLE'S POLITICAL ASPIRATIONS DEEPENS, ALL CAMPUSES AND UNIVERSITIES COUNTRYWIDE SHOULD BE TURNED INTO MILITARY BARRACKS.” PRACHANDA, NEPAL'S MAOIST CHIEF
The unprecedented level of anti-Indianism that manifests itself regularly is not limited to the Kathmandu Valley, nor to the fold of Maoist cadres, even if the Maoists are without doubt the main instigators of attacks on India. India has to do some introspection to see if there are more sensitive ways of managing its relations with a neighbour, with which its shared affinities and complementarities far outweigh the differences and irritants, keeping in mind a natural psyche on the latter's part of being "India-locked". Should India be alarmist about the possible influence of Nepal's Maoists on its own Naxalite problem? There is little hard evidence about substantive cross-border interactions between left-wing extremists of the kind and on a scale which should cause serious concern, but the example of Maoists succeeding in their country, professing democracy but through the use of non-democratic means, will undoubtedly have an impact on Naxalite strategies. There are already early warning signs that the open border makes monitoring and management of movements of even well-known left-wing leaders very difficult. Of late, Maoist leaders and documents speak assertively about stepping up interactions with Naxalites in India, and there seems to be some evidence of arms transfers taking place, as also insurgent groups from the North-East considering operations from Nepal since Bhutan and Bangladesh are no longer hospitable terrain. Maoists have made no effort to reduce their overtures to China; in fact, China's own increasing visibility in Nepal cannot but be seen in India as an exercise in calibrated provocation by Beijing in its backyard. The sudden expansion of "Confucian centres", proliferation of high-level visits, Chinese support for infrastructure projects and exchanges on defence and security cooperation are clearly intended to send signals to Nepal as well as India, that China is keen to upgrade its bilateral ties with Nepal and help www.geopolitics.in
“A STRONG
“NOW IT HAS
POWER CENTRE WOULD BE NECESSARY TO ACHIEVE PEACE, STABILITY AND PROGRESS IN NEPAL.”
BECOME INTOLERABLE, WE CAN NO LONGER TRUST THE MAOISTS… THE MAOISTS HAVE GONE TOO MUCH FAR, HOW WE CAN COOPERATE WITH THEM.”
HU JINTAO, CHINESE PRESIDENT
MADHAV KUMAR NEPAL, NEPAL PRIME MINISTER
the latter reduce its excessive dependence on India. The Chinese government has announced an additional package of $7.31 million to Nepal, increasing its annual financial assistance to Nepal to $21.94 million. It has also assisted Nepal in over 20 infrastructure developmental projects. China is also expanding its relationship from state-level to people-to-people level by funding and establishment of front organisations in Nepal. India should have and project the selfconfidence of a major power in its interactions with China, and not hesitate to engage purposefully with China on respecting our core sensitivities in Nepal. It is most unlikely that at this particular juncture the Chinese would accord higher priority to its interests in Nepal if they impinge adversely on India's core concerns. How should India deal with an unstable, increasingly radicalised and nationalistic Nepal? The Maoists are a political reality that cannot be wished away. India will have to
ANTI-INDIAN ACTIVITIES ARE IN PROPORTION TO THE LEVEL OF POLITICAL INSECURITY THE MAOISTS FEEL devise a "tactical" approach which gives the Maoists a sense of political security and offers them a chance to moderate their extremist positions on these fronts, enabling the Constitution to be written and progress made on integration and disarmament of their militia. A small window of opportunity
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for India does exist as long as the Maoists are finding their feet, i.e., for the next few years. If they refuse to play ball, other options may have to be considered in consultation with the international community. Once they develop their capacity to form a government on their own and have succeeded in substantially undermining the institutions and other major parties, compromises may not be feasible. India also needs to urgently evolve a more innovative, ambitious programme for inclusive development in Nepal, while simultaneously addressing the sources and reasons for the spurt of anti-Indian activity in that country. Here again, past experience would suggest that we should avoid exclusively government-to-government aid programmes, which inevitably get politicised, or create misunderstandings because of poor delivery or high costs, and offer instead cooperative, interdependent projects in the private sector or at the community level, where the Nepalese side is given a sense of equality and ownership. A plan for the accelerated development of Nepal, which will protect trade, tourism, investment and development from political shortcomings and vicissitudes, will also help counter anti-Indian trends by demonstrating India's commitment to the welfare of the people of Nepal, giving the latter a sense of hope for the future and the feeling that the winning side is democracy and development backed by India. The common people should be at the core of this plan. India needs to be clear about its own priorities in Nepal. If a stable, prosperous, democratic and peaceful Nepal is the real objective, then its policies should be fashioned, refined or redefined to sub-serve that objective. (The author is a former Secretary, Ministry of External Affairs and was Ambassador to Nepal from 1995 to 2000) January 2011
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I India has slowly but surely consolidated its ‘Look East’ policy to firmly entrench itself as a key player in the Asia Pacific region. Now it’s time to go to the next level, explains S D MUNI
ndia’s ‘Look East’ policy has entered its third phase of evolution with a thrust on emerging strategic balance in the AsiaPacific region. The seeds of strategic focus could be traced to Rajiv Gandhi’s period during the late Eighties when great power relations in the Asia-Pacific had started changing. The then Soviet Union was folding out and China was preparing itself to claim major stakes in the strategic architecture of the region. Rajiv Gandhi undertook a visit to China in December 1988 to break the ice in bilateral relations and deputed his diplomats to facilitate the resolution of the Kampuchean issue that had created misunderstanding between India and ASEAN. Narasimha Rao, who was involved in the Rajiv Gandhi period’s ‘Look East’ initiative as Foreign Minister, picked up the threads of the policy again when he became Prime Minister in 1991 and repackaged the policy with a
strong economic content to suit the requirements of the day. This was the first phase of ‘Look East’. The strategic and security component, however, was never lost on Rao’s moves and even when India’s ‘Look East’ policy was defined in term of economic engagement with the ASEAN region, India finalised deals of servicing MiG fighter aircraft with Malaysia and Laos and established defence training and cooperation missions in the region. The second phase of the ‘Look East’ policy was announced during the NDA regime by the then Foreign Minister Yashwant Sinha, who introduced defence co-cooperation as the major plank of this policy along with economic engagement. In an address at Harvard University in September 2003, he said: “The new phase of this policy is characterised by an expanded definition of ‘East’, extending from Australia to East Asia, with ASEAN at its core. The new phase also marks a shift from trade to
LOOKING BEYOND ECONOMICS
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PERSPECTIVE wider economic and security issues, including joint efforts to protect the sea lanes and coordinate counter-terrorism activities.” In the third phase, India is expected to situate itself as a major factor in the unfolding strategic balance of the region where signs of China’s assertiveness and US re-engagement are becoming clear. The first two phases of the ‘Look East’ policy have enabled India to rehabilitate itself in the region and consolidate its position as a friend and sincere partner in cooperation for development and security. Such rehabilitation and consolidation was necessary to break nearly four decades of isolation caused by the cold war and the Sino-Indian conflict in the Himalayas. In the process of rehabilitating itself, India graduated from a sectoral to a full dialogue partner of ASEAN by 1995 and became a summit-level partner by 2002. Being a full dialogue partner, in 1995, India was invited to join the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), the first security grouping established in the region in July 1994. A major landmark in India’s integration with the region has been its participation in the East Asia Summit (EAS), established in 2005. This was an indication that now onwards there were no barriers to India’s active involvement in the affairs of the Asia-Pacific region. It may be recalled that there were reserva-
tions on the part of some of the countries like Malaysia and China for the participation of India, along with that of Australia and New Zealand, in EAS, but these reservations were set aside in view of the strong support from rest of the members, particularly Singapore, Indonesia and Japan. Therefore, when the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting (ADMM) decided to change its format by expanding its membership as ADMM-Plus at its fourth meeting in May 2010, India was invited to join with seven other countries, namely Japan, China, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Russia and the United States. Outside ASEAN, India has been engaged with the countries of the region in two other forums, namely BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) and Mekong-Ganga Cooperation Initiative (MGCI) established in 1998 and 2000 respectively. The only multilateral forum in the region, where India is not represented, is Asia-Pacific Economic Community (APEC), though there are also strong advocates of India’s membership, which for the moment stands frozen. A notable aspect of India’s approach to regional groupings in East Asia has been to cultivate those where China is not present like BIMSTEC and MGCI and throw its weight with those where China is being engaged in extended multilateral
interactions. India’s support for the expansion of EAS to include Russia and the US in July 2010 may be mentioned in this respect. India has made special efforts to enhance cooperation with the new ASEAN members, namely Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam, all of which also happen to be located on Chinese periphery. This regional integration of India with East Asia carried through its ‘Look East’ policy has proved to be advantageous both to India and the countries of the region in concrete terms. For instance, India’s bilateral trade with ASEAN has increased manifold under the ‘Look East’ policy; from $2.3bn in 1991-92 to more than $45bn in 2010. Four of the ASEAN members — Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand — account for most of this trade. The phenomenal growth in Sino-Indian trade should also be seen as a part of India’s eastward economic engagement. China, Japan, Singapore and South Korea have also emerged as strong investors in India from its eastern neighbourhood. By 2010, the flow of investments into India from the east is nearly $15bn, with Singapore alone accounting for more than half of this amount. India, in turn, has also made matching investments in the East Asian countries, with the highest Indian FDI of $14.23bn going to Singapore by 2008-2009. India’s conclusion of Free Trade Agreement with ASEAN and bilateral ‘Comprehensive Economic Partnership/Cooperation Agreement’ (CEPA/CECA) with Singapore, Malaysia, Japan and South Korea is bound to provide greater momentum to the prospects of trade and investment. India’s defence and security cooperation with the countries of east has also been strengthened under the ‘Look East’ policy. This dimension was boldly highlighted in 2002 by Indian escort of US ships in the Malacca Strait to protect them from piracy. Since then, regular high-level political visits between India and the East Asian countries have taken place to discuss broader issues of regional and global security as also to firm up critical bilateral cooperation in the areas of defence, security and economic engagements. Defence Minister A K Antony’s participation in the ADMM+8 in Hanoi in October 2010 and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s visits to Japan, Malaysia, Vietnam and the Republic of Korea during October-Novem-
KEY PLAYER: Prime Minister Manmohan Singh at the ASEAN Summit, Hanoi, Vietnam, held in October 2010, to strengthen the regional integration of India with East Asia
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ber 2010 may be recalled as the take concrete shape and there are latest examples of such high-levmany other areas of soft power waitel interactions. Regular consultaing to be harnessed. It is only by reintions on foreign and defence forcing its economic, security and affairs at ministerial and senior cultural cooperation with the individofficial levels have been instituual countries and multilateral fora in tionalised and strategic partnerthe region that India can augment its ships of varying depths and potential to play an effective role in intensities have been established the region’s strategic balance. with a number of countries. At the other broader strategic Indian Navy and defence level, India faces a dilemma due to forces hold regular training, exeruncertainty in the US-China stratecises and visits with almost all the gic equation. This equation ranges countries of the East-Asian region, from the scenarios of G2 to an intenincluding with China and in the sifying new cold war between them South China Sea. In some of the and both of these extreme possibilicountries, India has set up ties are uncomfortable for India. defence and airforce academies While the former would tend to isoHIGH-LEVEL INTERACTION: Defence Minister A K Antony to impart training on a permalate India in the region the latter participated at the ADMM+8 in Hanoi in October 2010 nent basis. India’s relations with may force it to take sides between Singapore are the closest in this the two contenders. India had coorrespect. India has also started supplying dinated its efforts with the US, Japan and ensuring stability. The revival of tensions in defence equipment and exchanging defence Australia to provide relief to the tsunamiSouth China Sea over territorial disputes technologies to the countries of the region. affected east and has also, by now, remarkbetween China and the South East Asian The proposals of joint defence production ably improved its strategic understanding countries, the China-Japan spat on the fishwith Singapore and Indonesia are being with traditional US allies like Japan, Australia ing boat incident around the disputed actively pursued by India. and the Republic of Korea. But it would cerSankaku/Diaoyu Island and now the North The strides made by India to engage with tainly not like to go piggyback on the US or a Korean offensive against the South are all the Asia-Pacific region through its ‘Look East’ coalition put together by it to confront or indications of the disturbed regional stratecontain China as long as its rise remains policy are impressive but in no way adequate. gic balance. peaceful and orderly. The other major players in the region like the The East Asian region is clearly uneasy The Chinese proposal to divide the Indian US, China and Japan are far ahead of India. It with the unexpected assertiveness in China’s Ocean and the Pacific with the US as their has been noted earlier that the range of FTAs stance and values a multilateral strategic balrespective areas of influence as also Obama’s and CEPA/CECA put in place and being purance in the interest of peace and stability. call on China in November 2009 in Beijing to sued between India and the region both at the There is a clear demand that the US should rehelp ensure South Asian peace and stability regional and bilateral levels will give a definite engage itself strongly with the region and the has raised the levels of anxiety and concern in boost to its economic engagement. However, other rising powers of the region like India New Delhi. India is happy to see the revived India will only be able to harness the full should come actively forward to ensure stabilinterest of the US in East Asian affairs. Much potential of its economic cooperation with the ity of the regional balance. The East Asian before Obama’s reassuring visit to India in region by hastening the pace of its domestic countries find India’s response below their November 2010, Pranab Mukherjee, the then economic reforms and further opening of its expectations. Even the US President Obama India’s Defence Minister, speaking in June economy to Asia and the world. during his visit to India called upon India not 2006 at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore In defence and security matters, India has only to ‘look east’ but to ‘engage’ (i.e. actively said: “India is one of the important legs of the to catch up with the fast pace of China, not participate) with it. Asian juggernaut along with China, Japan and only in military modernisation but also in the India is burdened with constraints at two Indonesia. In the Asia-Pacific region, India’s area of offering military hardware and techlevels in this respect. At one level, India is neigrowing ties with the United States and other nologies. It is worth noting here that Philipther economically deep pocketed nor overcountries in North and South America brings pines, a traditional military ally of the US, has stocked by defence goodies to be as generous with it a commensurate role in the region… started exploring the possibilities of acquiring as China in meeting the expectations of its India’s role is crucial for ensuring and mainarms from China. India is still new in the field regional friends. This weakness may be overtaining long-term peace, stable balance of of maritime and military diplomacy. The qualcome through the establishment of trade and power, economic growth and security in Asia. ity and quantity of its defence production is economic arrangements in the region, and This being the driving aspiration of India’s not yet fully geared to the value and culture of economic reforms and enhanced defence Look East policy, it will get a strategic direction exports. India has surely become conscious of production at home. India has also not made and gather further momentum as the equathis but building required capabilities will proper use of its soft power in the region, tion between a turbulent US and a rising take time. which is embedded in its civilisational and China settles down in Asia.” The challenge of the third phase in cultural linkages, a vibrant diaspora and burIndia’s ‘Look East’ policy arises from the disgeoning impact of Bollywood. (The author, a former Indian Ambassador turbed regional strategic balance in East Asia The establishment of Nalanda University to Laos, is Visiting Research Professor, Instidue to China’s rise and the perception of US in 2010 is an indication that India is awakentute of South Asian Studies, Singapore.) constraints on playing its traditional role of ing towards this asset, but the project is still to www.geopolitics.in
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AKASH MISSILE TO RAMP UP AIR DEFENCE INDIA'S FIRST modern air defence system is ready to roll off the assembly line. An operational Akash missile system, developed by Bharat Electronics (BEL) in Bengaluru, is all set to be delivered to the Indian Air Force (IAF) by March 2011. This first Akash squadron will protect the Gwalior Air Base, where the IAF bases its Mirage-2000 fighters. BEL will follow this up quickly with a second Akash squadron by December 2011, which will safeguard Lohegaon Air Base at Pune, a major base for the front-line Sukhoi-30MKI fighters. Meanwhile, another defence public sector undertaking, Bharat Dynamics, will build six more Akash squadrons, most of these for the IAF's new fighter bases along the Sino-Indian border, including Tezpur, Bagdogra and Hasimara. BEL is building two Akash squadrons for `1,221 crore. The ground infrastructure would cost another `200 crore, so each squadron effectively costs about `700 crore. That is not just significantly cheaper than foreign procurement, but also permits better maintenance and
allows for continuous technological improvements. The Indian Army is also close to ordering a high-mobility version of Akash, mounted on T-72 tanks, that can move alongside tank forces. One of the Army's three strike corps, which attacks deep into enemy territory, has no anti-aircraft “area defence system”; the other two strike corps are equipped with the vintage Russian SA-6, designed in the early-1960s. This makes them dangerously vulnerable to
enemy fighters if they advance deep into enemy territory. The Akash — developed by the DRDO, in partnership with BEL, under the Integrated Guided Missile Development Programme — is a sophisticated amalgam of systems working in concert. The heart of the Akash is a mobile Rohini radar, which can detect an aircraft when it is 120km away; automatically, a coded electronic interrogator ascertains whether this is an IAF aircraft, or a civilian airliner. With the target identified, the Rohini radar alerts the Akash squadron headquarters, which then controls the engagement. As the enemy fighter races in at about 15km per minute, the task of shooting it down is allocated through a secure digital link to one of the squadron's two missile “flights”, which are normally about 25km away, to cover the maximum area. The designated Flight Control Centre locks its sophisticated 3D phased-array radar onto the enemy fighter and calculates the launch parameters for an Akash missile to shoot down the target at its maximum range of 25km.
BEEFING UP THE BIOLOGICAL PROGRAMME IN THE wake of chemical and nuclear threats, the Institute of Nuclear Medicine and Allied Sciences (INMAS) of Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) is strengthening its chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) defence by extending training programmes to private and government institutes, health organisations and paramilitary forces. This would also include health institutes such as PGIMER where doctors and nurses are to be provided similar training in order to prepare them to deal with CBRN casualties. More than the CBRN threat from other countries, today it is the threat of proliferation of such highly devastating agents into the hands of terrorist organisations across the globe. Also, there could be incidents where the disaster is a natural one, as was the recent case of Delhi University Cobalt-60 disaster. In contrast to the high intensity of threats, the awareness is very low among professionals and public. Keeping this in mind, for the first time www.geopolitics.in
INMAS would have a CBRN training institute, where paramilitary, employees at government orgainsations, health institutes and civilians would be trained to prepare them for any CBRN mass casualty. Keeping the importance of hospitals and health research institutes in mind, INMAS had already published a 250-page book on medical management on CBRN casualties and distributed it in hospitals including PGIMER. It had trained a section of doctors, nurses, and other health professionals on how to treat a patient exposed to radioactive agents prior to the Commonwealth Games at Delhi. The training is based on the existing defence technique of NBC currently being used in the military. This would be modified for the civil sector. For instance, the technology used in military tanks to counter NBC attacks would be modified and simplified for the use of personal vehicles.
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January 2011
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g SINGLE-HAND CARBINES
A CARBINE that can be fired on the enemy using only one hand is all set to make its debut in the armed and paramilitary forces, providing an impetus in fight against Naxals and in counter-insurgency operations. The Army is about to start trials of
these single-hand carbines that has a lethality range of 200 m and hold 30 rounds in the ammunition cartridge. Developed by the Armament Research and Development Establishment, Pune, the carbine will screen multiple sites to strike a target accurately. Besides the new carbine, the defence laboratory has also started working on an intelligent rifle with embedded sensors. The Gen Next rifles will have systems to coordinate with a backpack computer or a head-mounted display for the future soldier for better and accurate strike. The Pune laboratory is also developing technologies to convert the Indian Air Force's existing stock of "dumb bombs" into "smart bombs" for precise hits at a distance of 20km. This will be done by inserting a guidance system in the nose and tail of the ammunition so that it can be guided by a laser or a seeker.
BRAHMOS TESTED INDIA'S SUPERSONIC cruise missile, BrahMos was successfully flight-tested from the Integrated Test Range (ITR) at Chandipur, Orissa, the mission highlight being to perform tricky manoeuvres, rolls and a vertical dive towards the targeted area in the Bay of Bengal even as it flew at a velocity of 2.8 times the speed of sound. The missile travelled its full range of 290km. It was the missile's Block III version, boasting advanced guidance and upgraded software that was tested. The flight established the missile's precision strike capability in mountain warfare.
The only supersonic cruise missile in the world today, BrahMos is said to be one of the unparalleled missiles. It has a
track record of successive successes in its both ship-launched and groundlaunched versions against ship-based and land-based targets.
DRDO GOES FOR NANO TECH IN AN attempt to provide the impetus to nano technology, the Defence Research Development Organisation (DRDO) will be setting up a nano foundry in Bengaluru or Hyderabad. The foundry, which is expected to cost `500 crore will develop nano products from nano designs. Its primary aim will focus on three products: nano composites, nano electrodes and bio-sensors. The nano foundry project will be part www.geopolitics.in
of a cluster with the partnering of IITs and other academic institutions of India. The R&D facilities for nano technology can be used by industry and academic institutions for research purposes. Nano technology has several applications — from agriculture to defense — and the DRDO has already invested `200 crore for developing nano technology applications.
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NEW ELECTRONIC WARFARE TEST RANGES
INDIA WILL build two ranges for testing radar-based electronic warfare systems, as it seeks to strengthen its capability in the field, seen to be vital in war scenarios. One range would come up in Chitradurga in Karnataka and another in Tandur in Andhra Pradesh, which would test "noncommunication" and "communication" EW systems, respectively. Once the two new testing ranges are operational in 2012-13, experimental and R&D tests can be conducted. The present EW systems have been integrated with MiG-27 fighters and operational flights are slated next year. They would be integrated with MiG-29 fighters and the light combat aircraft next year.
CVRDE TO MAKE GEARBOX FOR AIRCRAFT CHENNAI-BASED Combat Vehicles Research and Development Establishment (CVRDE) will develop the gearbox for the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), a fifth generation aircraft. The Aircraft Mounted Accessory Gearbox (AMAGB), developed by CVRDE for the Light Combat Aircraft, Tejas, has received the "type approval" from the Centre for Military Airworthiness and Certification (CEMILAC). The Indian Navy has also approached the CVRDE for gearboxes for its submarines, being developed indigenously.
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Russia, the all-weather friend
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rime Minister Manmohan Singh and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev have just concluded the 11th annual Indo-Russian summit, a feature that started in 2000. Indian media might not have given the event due coverage, but compared to the overhyped visit of US President Obama in November, its results are more tangible. The Obama trip saw India and the United States signing some 20 agreements worth $10 bn. In contrast, the "low-profile" visit of President Medvedev to the country resulted in 30 bilateral agreements, of which the deal on the joint production of fifth generation aircraft alone was worth $30 bn. In fact, when one talks of India's broad strategic interactions with the outside world, there is no parallel to its bourgeoning allweather relations with Russia. While one is not belittling the growing Indo-US ties, the reality Prakash is that of all the P-5 countries (US, UK, France, China, Russia — all permanent members of the United Nations Security Council), it is Russia that shares most of India's global vision and concerns. Russia gives India around 70 per cent of its defence needs. And importantly, defence cooperation is not exactly restricted to a buyer-seller relationship; it includes joint design, research and development, joint production, training, and service-to-service contacts. Russia shares its most sensitive and newest developments in technology with India, something that the United States is reticent to do. BrahMos missile system is a shining example of this type of collaboration. Presently, several similar joint development projects in areas of cutting-edge and frontier technologies are being pursued. Besides, Russia has so far maintained its policy on not providing our adversary China (or for that matter Pakistan) the same weapons system it supplies to India. Some critics do point out that in today's arms bazaar, Russia is not exactly a great market, given the comparatively poor technology associated with its weapons. But then, no nation would fulfil the requirements of India like the Russians and no one else would be willing to lease their nuclear submarines to the Indian Navy. Notwithstanding the muchhyped 2008 civil Indo-US nuclear deal, it is Russia rather than the United States that proved to be a better partner in augmenting India's nuclear power by not hesitating to transfer the so-called "dual-use technology" on a range of sensitive areas such as reprocessing technology, joint thorium fuel cycle nuclear power projects and fast neutron reactors. Similarly, no country other than Russia has collaborated with India in its several space technology-based cooperation projects. Though it is below potential that the present bilateral two-way trade is only $7.46 bn (2009) and present two-way investment is approximately $5.5 bn, it is, perhaps, not
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properly highlighted that one of India's most significant overseas investments ($2.8 bn) has been in Sakhalin-I (Siberia) for extracting oil. That is not all. India has also invested more in that region through ONGC Videsh Limited — $2.1 bn was the investment for buying a British company called Imperial Energy in the Tomsk region in Siberia. So, India has had an energy strategy of investing in equity in that region and this continues. India has been discussing with the Russian side on several more investments where ONGC Videsh Limited is willing to go along with Russian oil and gas majors like Gazprom and Rosneft to invest in different regions of Siberia and even North Russia. In Siberia, the regions are Sakhalin-III and there is a region on Timan Pechora, as well as an interest on the Indian side in the Yamal peninsula, which is a gas-rich area in Northern Russia. India has been keen to Nanda acquire a stake in Sakhalin-III. It was reassuring that the summit meeting witnessed meaningful agreements on all these areas. All this, however, does not mean that there are no hiccups in Indo-Russian ties. The two countries have not yet come to terms with the new situation where private players and organisations are dominating the economic contours in the two countries and where they have to deal with each other directly without governmental interventions. The result is that not many Indian businessmen are sure of their returns on investments in and trade with Russia. Even in military sales, the Russians have to re-establish their Soviet-days' reliability in not only timely delivery of the products but also with commitments for after-services and spare parts. However, these hiccups pale into insignificance if one sees the broad strategic framework. The fundamental reality is that though Russia may have lost its position as a super-power in Cold War equations, it is still a big power if one goes by any possible definition of the elements that constitute power. It is huge and possesses the largest landmass of the earth as a single country. It strategically abuts on Central Asia, China and Iran, an area of political security and economic interests to India. Russia is endowed with enormous natural resources, technological capacities and trade potential. Above all, it has a highly talented reservoir of human capital. It still is the most important military power in the world after the United States. Most significantly, Russia, perhaps, gives a higher priority to India in its foreign policy and strategic calculations than the United States or other power centres of the world, their acknowledgment of India's rising importance notwithstanding.
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prakashnanda@newsline.in January 2011
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