Geopolitics_december_2011 by Newsline

THE EURO CRISIS: IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA

geopolitics VOL II, ISSUE VII, DECEMBER 2011

`100

DEFENCE DIPLOMACY SECURITY

RESURRECTING

THE BOFORS GUNS

THEKHAN N IMRA PACT IM

THE F-35

CHALLENGING PROSPECTS

TUNNEL OF PRIDE

An engineering marvel, the Rohtang Tunnel has great strategic significance

g GEOPOLITICS

EDITOR-IN-CHIEF’S NOTE

It shouldn’t have happened Journalism is all about trust and integrity. Sometimes one does slip and it is best to acknowledge the mistake, learn from it and move on.

ow do you react to mous feedback and ideas that we are constantly something that quite flooded with. Taking this episode in the same spirsimply doesn’t belong to it, we have taken a hard relook at our processes you, is not original and, in fact, and found to our dismay that one of our senior is someone else’s work? Quite colleagues on the desk who had the responsibility K Srinivasan simply you apologise, say sorry, to collate information collected in-house and view acknowledge the other person’s it against published information and other authorship, make sure it never ever happens again sources for facts and figures, in fact, actually and move along. ended up simply cutting and pasting some items So let me tell you to make life easy for themShiv* that ‘we selves. We are are sorry’. It fixing responshouldn’t have sibility and happened. But punishing the now that it has, guilty. It was BULLETIN NUCLEAR we want to make wrong. RROR ODYSSEY URBAN TE sure it never ever As an aside happens again. On may I add that NAVAL POWER two different occaanyone who flips ROMANCE OFFICERS E MiG L C S U sions we’ve used through Geopoli& M INTELLIGENCE G ENTLEME N ROTARY pictures that were tics will realise copyrighted with the huge amount him. On the first occasion (Geopolitics, September of work that we do month after month. We have 2011, page 54), it came from Wikimedia and on the probably the largest number of commissioned second occasion (Geopolitics, October 2011, page articles amongst any publication in this genre. I 62) from http://butcherhook.blogspot.com/. Logimention this not to score any points, but to reafcally credit should have gone on both occasions — firm that we believe, much as Shiv in the power in the first instance, to Wikimedia Commons/Shiv of the written word and the originality of one’s Aroor and on the second occasion to butcherhook copy. (although it now seems that this blog has used a Unfortunately, even the best can trip and I pix from the Aroor collection without credit). On have no hesitation in saying that on this occasion both occasions, the credits were missing which is we tripped badly. So we are doing what is, peran unpardonable editorial lapse. As for the latest haps, the best thing to do under the circumoffending word by word recapitulation of several stances: apologising whole-heartedly and openparas of an Aroor blog report, it is terrible to say heartedly. the very least (Geopolitics, November 2011, page 26). Sadly, there were a couple of other transgressions as well. All of us at Geopolitics take great pride in our work and the product we produce. Instances like these are opportunities for us to revisit our srini@newsline.in procedures and acting as our own ombudsman we * The reference is to journalist Shiv Aroor and his blog: have done precisely that in the last few days of http://livefist.blogspot.com/ November. We value our readers and the enorOLITIC

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VOL II, ISSUE

VOL II, ISSUE V, OCTOBER 2011 ` 100

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VI, NOVE MBER

IAL :

IND IA’S

2011 ` 100

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PO LIC

` 100 2011

Y URIT S E C ACY LOM D I P NCE DEFE

DEFENCE DIPLOMACY SECURITY

DEFE NCE DIPL OMA CY SECU RITY

POWER NUCLEAR

FACING

For overall national security India’s affair with nuclear power appears long lasting

AUGMENTING

THE END OF

General Vijay (NDA Batch-Kumar Singh 1969)

Admiral

Nirmal (NDA Batch-Kumar Verma 1968)

THE NEED OF CREDIBLE

e combat versatil e rged as have eme Indian Air Forc Helicoptersform for the plat

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Are the

training

Air Chief

Marsh (NDA Batch-al NAK Browne 1970)

templat es to produc based on the British e officers of the 21s legacy still good eno t century ugh ?

December 2011

COVER STORY (P42)

Strategic Asset

BRO

Once completed the Rohtang tunnel will be one of the world’s longest at such a high altitude and will provide India great leverage in securing the state of Jammu and Kashmir from any possible threats from China and Pakistan.

FOCUS (P34)

MoD

USAF

SPOTLIGHT (P12)

DESPERATE PITCH

BOFORS REDUX

The latest American offer of the F-35 Lightning emanates out of compulsion rather than choice, because of reduction or cancellation of confirmed F-35 orders.

After a long drought in its artillery procurement programme, the Army is all set to get the Bofors gun again. But is the Ordnance Factory Board up to the challenge?

PANORAMA (P10)

DEF BIZ (P36)

INTERNAL SECURITY (P60)

PERSIAN CHALLENGE

NEED FOR CLARITY

UNDER SIEGE

Iran’s dangerous game of nuclear brinkmanship could invite the wrath of Israel with the threat of preemptive strikes looming large.

The government must display determination to initiate radical reforms to insulate the acquisition system from corruption.

Facing threats from both Maoists and terrorists, the sight of heavily armed security personnel in Indian cities is set to become a common feature.

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December 2011

The Future Infantry Combat Vehicle (FICV) programme is considered a milestone in the history of Indian defence acquisition as it is the first under the ‘Make-India’ procedure.

PIB

Hemant Rawat

ISAF

LANDMARK VENTURE (P28)

CONTROVERSIAL LAW (P56)

The Armed Forces Special Powers Act has once again come in for sharp criticism but the Army has opposed any move to repeal it.

REVIVING THE EMPIRE (P70)

THE EURO CRISIS (P78)

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s idea to create an “Eurasian Union” is being viewed with apprehension by many in the West.

As the sovereign debt crisis grows into one of the biggest challenges the EU has faced, it is clear that scheduled 2012 bilateral deals with India will not be ready.

SPECIAL REPORT (P64) THE IMRAN KHAN IMPACT

Wikimedia/Stephan Röhl

The former Pakistani cricketer’s public meeting at the Minar-i-Pakistan on October 30, 2011, was a stupendous success, but it remains to be seen how much of this support Khan can sustain for his political innings.

DIPLOMACY (74)

UNCERTAIN AGENDA

SINCE ITS FORMATION IN 1985,

Editor-in-Chief

K SRINIVASAN Editor

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GEOPOLITICS

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DOUBTS CONTINUE ABOUT THE RELEVANCE OF SAARC AS IT IS NEITHER

Consulting Editor

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AN ECONOMIC BLOC NOR A GROUPING

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FOR GEOPOLITICS. BUT IS THIS

Senior Designer

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Design

MOHIT KANSAL

Staff Photographer

Director (Corporate Affairs)

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Conceptualised and designed by Newsline Publications Pvt. Ltd., from D-11 Basement, Nizamuddin (East), New Delhi -110 013, Tel: +91-11-41033381-82 for NEWSEYE MEDIA PVT. LTD. All information in GEOPOLITICS is derived from sources we consider reliable. It is passed on to our readers without any responsibility on our part. Opinions/views expressed by third parties in abstract or in interviews are not necessarily shared by us. Material appearing in the magazine cannot be reproduced in whole or in part(s) without prior permission. The publisher assumes no responsibility for material lost or damaged in transit. The publisher reserves the right to refuse, withdraw or otherwise deal with all advertisements without explanation. All advertisements must comply with the Indian Advertisements Code. The publisher will not be liable for any loss caused by any delay in publication, error or failure of advertisement to appear. Owned and published by K Srinivasan, 4C Pocket-IV, Mayur Vihar, Phase-I, Delhi-91 and printed by him at Nutech Photolithographers, B-240, Okhla Industrial Area, Phase-I, New Delhi-110020. Readers are welcome to send their feedback at geopolitics@newsline.in. www.geopolitics.in

APPRAISAL JUST?

HEMANT RAWAT

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THE EURO CRISIS: IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA

geopolitics VOL II, ISSUE VII, DECEMBER 2011 `100 100

DEFENCE DIPLOMACY SECURITY

RESURRECTING

THE BOFORS GUNS

TH KHAN N IMRA PACT IM

THE F-35

CHALLENGING PROSPECTS

TUNNEL OF PRIDE

An engineering marvel, the Rohtang Tunnel has great strategic significance

Cover Design: Ruchi Sinha Photos: Border Roads Organisation

December 2011

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LETTERS

LETTERS TO EDITOR 10/31/2011

2:03 PM

Page 26

GEOPOLIT

ICS

FOCUS

withhold the decision to Shipyard, government’s and Pipavav Justifying the between MDL it is not in India’s interests joint venture argues why MRINAL SUMAN warship-building and practices in to allow such need for transparency

Photo:tribon.cn

stressed the the complaints to study surprise to promised come as a when the that regard. T DID not received in le observers knowledgeab joint venture (JV) ProJV much-hyped Dock Limited of Defence Genesis of promulgation between MazagonShipyard was put 11 (DPP-2011), Prior to the Pipavav (MoD) Procedure-20 placed only on (MDL) and of Defence curement were the Ministry JV had earlier on hold by orders for warshipsshipyards, i.e. MDL, 26, 2011. The sector 12, when on September & Engineers the public on September BomShipbuilders Hinbeen announced the tie-up to the Garden ReachShipyard Limited and JV, emergence Pipavav intimated It was to be a 50:50 Limited, Goa Ltd. With the Pipavav Ltd’, bay Stock Exchange. shipyards in crore, all dustan Shipyard ‘Mazagon Dock of large-sized and sector for exceeding `100,000 have to be called of a number Bharati, L&T with orders sector shipyards also kind in the defence and subsector (ABG, could not for the the first of its the private of warships other public askew totally booked split the government the construction y, it went Pipavav), DPP-2011 has their capacities There is a huge backlog Unfortunatel potential. t. ‘nomiare years. marines. ignore their next 10-15 these shipyards of its announcemen into two categories: Under as Larsen They orders and within days bidding’. shipbuilding shipyards such of pending their inflow. and had ‘competitive Other private placed on cope with and Bharati nation’ and ingenious unable to orders will be (L&T), ABG “arbitrary” JVs to be an and Toubro the first category,public sector shipyards the decision followed have found They can obtain termed crafts. foul, stratagem. cried the nominated and other the procedure convenient basis and therepartnomination and questioned selection of the JV for private sector for ships, submarines work to JVs. orders on the the excess category allowsopen competifaulted that no by MDL for The second in process was Further, after outsource will ensure participate ”. ner. The selection goes to the shipyards to bag orders. Such an arrangement of transparency any proposal ever preventing try to keep “a total lack alleged that neither of bidding to tive would shipbuilding that MoD category, therebysector shipsubmission L&T and ABG fully loaded. It is natural competitive indicated for nor were any sector shipyards shipbuilding of the private timeline was the public the emergence competitors and perpetJV proposal, Doubts were almost all majorbe earmarked the detailed Therefore, yards as serious the public sector norms specified.criteria under will invariably monopoly of Once public evaluation the proposals selection uating category. the had up, sector raised about for the nominationthrow their hands with no experience,track shipyards. hand, private actiwhich Pipavav, to ABG, with a sector shipyards section would get On the other invested enormous shiphave been preferred delivered 142 ships. the competitivewords, the private shipyards up their capacities. are Commitin building record of having for orders vated. In other hope for orders that resources the ConsultativeMinister A struggling are Addressing yards can onlypublic sector shipyards. However, they sector. Global recession to MoD, Defence was not for tee attached that the JV refused by the Navy and the Coast Guard from the civil come at a worse time on JVs was FurK Antony announced n drive to fill The Indian till a policy could not havehave simply dried up. Highmodernisatio to being progressed are on a hectic voids and are likely 15 considerable them. Orders by the government. was treading there has been put in place critical warship$40 billion in the next thermore, fact that Indiathe issue to be to loaded lighting the spend close he wanted MDL is already 2011 November on a new path, and settled before making years. Whereas he fully examined movement. Further, any forward www.geopolitics

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FOCUS

DEFENCE MINISTRY OF WHY CAN’T THEK THE TALK? defence production WAL in a major role

play , is extremely sector should of imagination world can afthe any stretch on why private per country in solution -year delay serious. No six-to-eight and cost overfind an appropriate against the ford not to Docks by passed since at Yantar Shipyard, cent, which, ship by Mazagon years have the of 240 per being launched HOUGH 64 ce, and runs in access INS Tarkash IMPORT: India’s Independenwith a 1.2-bilFOREIGN 2010. ANOTHER Russia, on June 23, biggest democracyhas some of the population Kaliningrad, and intellectulion-strong reformists greatest brains, is still not self-reliant ng and als, the country to the manufacturi when it comes military hardware. servicing of per cent of India’s military from 70 largely Almost imported today, USA, hardware are as Russia, France, the Defence countries such Italy and Israel. this the UK, Germany, intends to reverse Antony seems AK also He Minister next few years. private trend in the about involving the But whether to be serious production. is on track (MoD) sector in defence reof Defence the Ministry the vision of its minister to implement question. its demains a big India has opened up with sector On paper, It to the private fence industryinvestment now allowed. for Foreign 100 per cent up 26 per cent no has also opened (FDI). However, sigmade any Direct Investments houses have sector major business investment in this lack of nificant capital entry barriers and huge on a guardue to the (capbusiness prospects large capex long-term against the . anteed basis ) requirement and ital expenditure recent Comptroller Going by the (CAG) reports, force-level up Navy is not Auditor General’s s of the Indianaircraft carriers preparednes and Frigates tankers to the mark. built in Russia and oil are still being in Italy. Orders for corvettes, amongst are being built ly frigates, destroyers, submarines, to approximate with Deothers, amounting have been placeds (DPSUs) `1,25,000 crore, Sector Undertaking (MDL), fence Public Docks Limited (HSL), Goa such as Mazagon Shipyard Limited Garden Reach Hindustan (GSL), and Limited (GRSE). Shipyard Limited & Engineers `1,25,000 Shipbuilders worth nearly paMore contracts frigates, landing defor crore for submarines, are lined up (LPDs) etc the cumulative trol docks Ironically, has never fence PSUs. of shipyards 2011 November annual revenue crore. crossed `5,000 CAG strongly remarked In fact, the PRANAV KUMAR

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HE IndoTibetan Border Police (ITBP) and Army two forces which FIGHTING FORTROL CON OPERATIONAL are responsible for securing T the Chinese border — shouldn’t behave in the manner they are doing at present. Fighting for operational control (November issue) has brought forward the inter-organisation rivalry and the tussle for power in Delhi. The article is well- balanced and it brought forward both sides of the story. The understanding of the operational matters at the decisionmaking level of the government is very less and this has given rise to such a situation. The security of the nation can’t be compromised for the ego of any officer cadre. The core point that the article makes which I agree with is the training and leadership issue of the ITBP. An IPS lead force can’t be assigned the important task of guarding such a sensitive border. The problem has been making the news regularly but the detailed reporting of the problem has been done by only you. A field report, along with the story would have given more depth and a better example to illustrate the ground situation. Brahma Chellany’s book has made waves across the world and his thoughts on the issue was extremely informative, to say the least. I hope we can see more authors giving their perspective their books in near future. I would also like to commend you on the eye-catching cover. Keep up the good work. .qxd ITBP 12-14

10/31/2011

2:30 P

GEOPOLITI

SPOTLIGHT

The OF THE HIMALAYAS: troops SENTINELS skills of the ITBP mountaineering by the Army are highly regarded

over forces ry wrangling to unnecessa political ITBP is leading sooner the civilfor guiding the adversary. The security of the The Army’s call border of our most potent for long-term the better it will be A deployed near the issue, the a final call on ROHIT SRIVASTAV does and it obviously senleadership takes nation, comments Army cautious this

apparatus management borthat the border Indo-Tibetan Chinese the instituof the 4,057-km-long HE AGGRESSIVE reorganised at Indo-Tibet border needs to be first effort in this regard patrols on the menace tional level. The Indian Army der are an ever-present ement 2005 by the the operwas made in to our border-manag proposal seeking threat of Chinese Borwhen it sent a agencies. The of the Indo-Tibetan the border regular ational control increased along this The reports of made incursions has have der Police (ITBP). cases being reported Chinese forces with multiple incursions by a state year. has reached such The situation

Photo:ITBP

OING through g the story L? A FLAWED DEA on the suspension of the deal I between PipavavMazagon Dock deal in A Flawed Deal (November issue), I felt that the nation was not able to understand the necessity of the strategic business in nation building. The article brought out the condition under which the deal between the Mazagon Dock Limited and Pipavav was inked and it was surprising that in spite of all the procedural transparency, the deal got shelved. The impact of it is going to be felt in the Indian submarine programme which is lagging behind by a decade; this is going to further undermine the submarine production. Pranav Kumar’s piece on the same g topic (Why Can’t the Ministry of T Defence Walk the Talk?), was a good read with insights regarding the rationale behind the Expression of Interest for the joint venture between private and public shipyards. The ministry’s reaction suggests lethargy or indecisiveness on its part. Raj Mehta’s cover story (Grim Portents) should start a debate on the training methodology of the Army. Its time has come. Pipavav 18-22.qxd

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on the out of the loop was turned not want to be The proposal sitive border. then. sources: down by the government government According to is due to an incident an ITBP “The latest thrust in 2010 when Indian that happened patrol within patrol met a Chinese Pradesh, resulting territory in Arunachal

November 2011

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Umang Kumar Luckhnow

Joginder Singh New Delhi www.geopolitics.in

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OING through your November issue, the cover story Grim Portents made me ponder over the possibilities of changing the training methodology of the Army. The emphasis of the training in the Indian Army is on the physical toughness and capability. The argument in the article was against this. The author, an experienced officer, has argued that the time has come to relook this. The argument has been substantiated with enough research materials including data and facts. But raw research data can’t compensate for all aspects of any real-life experience. I agree that our training is modeled against British model. In the era of The Raj the British Army was supposed to fight across the globe in extreme climates. Things have changed now, but one cannot ignore the fact that the difference between the army life and normal average man’s life. The difference is the same. Today a cadet’s pre-Army life is not as physically demanding. Life has become easy, and so even when the battlefield has become less tough, thanks to modern equipments, the gap is the same. The Indian Army today is fighting at the height where it never was, or no force has ever been in history for a long duration. These challenges demand physical fitness. I think yours is the first magazine to ask such a pertinent question. Kudos to you. Sishupal Nigam Dehradun All correspondence may be addressed to: Editor, Geopolitics, D-11 Basement, Nizamuddin (East), New Delhi-110013. OR mail to geopolitics@newsline.in. December 2011

{GOLDENEYE}

Vijay reminds you of Ajay

IJAY KUMAR, the dynamic DG of the Central Reserve Police Force, must have realised the importance of the press after the encounter of Maoist leader Kishenji in West Bengal. The credit for the successful operation was usurped by the Bengal police, where the CRPF played a significant role. Vijay Kumar did not meet the press formally before the annual press conference last month — the first time in his one-year stint as DG. He is famous for continuously touring the operational units across the country and is rarely seen sitting at headquarters. After the operational success against Kishenji he must have realised that success is never complete without getting due credit. Morale boosting of jawans is also needed not simply through credits in the press but also with the visits of a sensitive and supportive DG. Vijay Kumar reminds many of the dynamic Ajay Raj Sharma, who led the one-time SIT (Special Investigative Team) in Uttar Pradesh. And who was later hugely successful as the first noncadre Police Commissioner of Delhi and then one of the most celebrated DGs of the Border Security Force (BSF). Sharma literally put the fear of God both in the Pakistani Rangers and the Bangladeshi Rifles and in one much reported face-off with his Bangladeshi counterpart, told him where to get off. Vijay Kumar is made of the same mettle. He must be one of the few officers who gets along famously with all politicians in Tamil Nadu and isn’t viewed as one or the other’s acolyte. But, in the capital, he must be one of the lowest of low-profile cops and when he isn’t juggling the sundry balls that the regions toss at him, Vijay is busy plotting how to get the CRPF to the next level. Attaboy! www.geopolitics.in

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December 2011

{GOLDENEYE}

g Handing charge

ice Admiral Anil Chopra must be a relieved man now that he has taken over as Flag Officer Commanding in Chief, Eastern Naval Command. His 35-month tenure was one of the most critical in the history of the Indian Coast Guard. As its Director General, his officers and his ships had to be alert and battle-ready. After all, on one hand there were the Somali pirates threatening commercial vessels near Indian coasts and on the other were threats from the likes of Ajmal Kasab. Under his leadership, the Coast Guard performed admirably — remember when Coast Guard Ship Sankalp along with a Navy vessel rescued 20 fishermen and arrested 15 Somali pirates early this year. All those not in the know, Admiral Chopra’s wife, Ragini Chopra is the indefatigable Vice President (Corporate Communication and PR) of Jet Airways. Although, a power couple, the two have maintained low profile lifestyles and prefer to focus on their work; but we have a bone to pick up with Admiral Chopra. The long promised interview as DG (Coast Guard) could never happen but we hope he has a productive time as a Head of the Eastern Fleet and at some point we will get to chat with him. We wish him the very best in his new role.

Jaane bhi do yaaron Bhai, bada maaza aya Golden Eye ko Facebook mein dekh ke. But that is not the point, one comment amongst the sundry caught our eye. Someone wanted to know who were the sangeet mandali, the dictation patrakars. Arey jaane bhi do yaaron. Why discuss chamchas, they are born to take dictation and they will continue to do so — kal aaj aur kal. As for the char chand that some observers are offering the head of PR, there is no doubt he deserves it. After all it is his job to project his institution and his masters in the best light. If someone wants to take dictation, what can poor Mr Kar do? As LK Advani said famously in a different context: “Some were willing to crawl when they were asked to bend.”

Pallam is in form The strategic business circle which keeps meeting regularly in the defence industry seminar circuit has a permanent crib about government representatives not attending. The post-inaugural session sees the Minister and secretaries leaving for the ministry, but the recently-held Defcom 2011 saw a change. The Minister for State, Pallam Raju, not only attended but also chaired the session. Obviously, the well-experienced junior Minister, who has become a regular at seminars and very vocal in the last few months, is now more or less the spokesperson for the Defence Ministry. With Raksha Mantri AK Antony being such a stroke-less wonder and no one understanding his mumbo jumbo, someone has to speak out. Pallam Raju does it with aplomb. The only problem is where all can the good man present himself?

Immandari not for sale! South Block is undergoing restoration. The effort is being made to restore it to its lost glory. The recently restored courtyard in the Ministry of Defence saw a banner, ‘Immandari bikau nahin hai (Honesty is not for sale)’ and in the same courtyard in another corner there was a banner reading, ‘Chori ka maal mori main (Stolen money in the manhole)’. The moral of the story is that for everyone claiming that all is well, there are many who are telling you that all is not well. Now what we want to know is where the mori is and who has done the chori? Or, is it that when you do chori, it will end up in the mori (manhole).

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December 2011

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PANORAMA

“Iran is developing nuclear weapons. If anyone had any doubts, the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) report certainly dispelled them. It is important to impose sanctions, tough sanctions, on this regime — even tougher than those that have been imposed over the past few days.”

BENJAMIN NETANYAHU Israeli Prime Minister

“We are not taking any options off the table. Iran with nuclear weapons would pose a threat not only to the region but also to the United States.”

BARACK OBAMA US President

“Preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons is one of the IAEA’s core responsibilities. Throughout the past three years, we have obtained additional information which gives us a fuller picture of Iran’s nuclear programme and increases our concerns about possible military dimensions.”

K MR. AMANO IAEA Chief

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“Iran has carried activities relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device, including acquisition of nuclear weapons development information and documentation from a clandestine nuclear supply network; and work on the development of an indigenous design of a nuclear weapon including the testing of components.”

“I can tell you that the IAEA report has a sobering impact on many in the world, leaders as well as the publics, and people understand … now that Iran is determined to reach nuclear weapons. And that should be stopped.”

IAEA REPORT

EHUD BARAK

Israeli Defence Minister

g PANORAMA

Digital Globe-ISIS

“The possibility of a military attack against Iran is now closer to being applied than the application of a diplomatic option, the intelligence services of several countries are looking at the ticking clock, warning leaders that there is not much time left”.

SHIMON PERES Israeli President

THE SMOKING GUN: This 2006 image shows Iranian facilities at Esfahan including the tunnel entrance near the Uranium Conversion Facility (UCF).

“You should know that this nation will not pull back even a needle’s width from the path it is on. Why do you damage the agency’s dignity because of America’s invalid claims? They have empowered a person in the IAEA that has no authority and violates the agency’s rules by repeating the words of the US.”

MAHMOUD AHMADINEJAD

Iranian President

UN Resolutions against Iran Resolution 1737 — December 23, 2006: Banned the supply of nuclear-related materials and technology, froze assets of related individuals and companies Resolution 1747 — March 24, 2007: Imposed arms embargo, expanded freeze on Iranian assets Resolution 1803 — March 3, 2008: Extended freezing of assets, called upon states to monitor activities of Iranian banks, inspect ships and aircraft, monitor the movement of individuals involved with the programme Resolution 1929 — June 9, 2010: Banned Iran from participating in any activities related to ballistic missiles, tightened the arms embargo, travel bans on individuals involved with the programme, froze funds and assets of Iranian Revolutionary Guard and Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines amongst others

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December 2011

g GEOPOLITICS SPOTLIGHT

BEHIND UNCLE

US Air Force

SAM’S OFFER T HE US Defense Department offered India technology-sharing and talks on its top weapons programme: Lockheed Martin’s F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF). “Should India indicate interest in the JSF, the United States would be prepared to provide information on the JSF and its requirements,” including on security and infrastructure, the Defense Department said on November 2, 2011, in a Congressionally-mandated report on US-India security cooperation. The nine-page review of defence ties with India was prepared in response to a legislative provision sponsored earlier this year by Senate Armed Services Committee members Joe Lieberman, a Connecticut independent, and John Cornyn, a Texas Republican. Bethesda, Marylandbased Lockheed Martin builds the F-35 in Texas. United Technologies makes the plane’s engines in Connecticut. Of course, it is not the first time that the US has made this offer. In July 2007, the US had offered the F-35 to India as a “potential follow-on to current multirole combat aircraft programme”. Nevertheless, the latest offer does constitute a fresh challenge to both the US and India owing to two different, but interesting, economic factors

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linked to the aviation technology quality of the Occident and the matching deficiency thereof in the Orient. The crux of the matter lies in the US thought of the day: “The US is committed to give India top-of-the-line technology.” Inherent in it, therefore, is the confession that the US has thus never given “top-ofthe-line-technology” to India! The question is: Why did USA avoid thinking of giving/offering “top-of-the-line-technology” to India? What lies behind the US change of heart? To understand, one perforce needs to delve slightly deeper into American armament technology and trade thereof. The US was the largest exporter of major conventional weapons from 2006 to 2010, accounting for 30 per cent of world arms transfers. Asia and Oceania topped with 44 per cent of US deliveries of major conventional weapons in 20062010 which was followed by the Middle East (28 per cent) and Europe (19 per cent). Interestingly, India never figured in the list of top US customers such as South Korea, Australia, Japan, Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, etc, because even after the demise of the Soviet Union, the

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The United States is offering its latest Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) F-35 Lightning-II aircraft to India. The offer, however, raises some critical questions that need answers, says ABHIJIT BHATTACHARYYA new Russia remained New Delhi’s main supplier of major arms since 1991. This remained the position as late as 20062010 with Russia accounting for 82 per cent of deliveries to Raisina Hills. Things, however, are dramatically changing owing to all-round pressure on defence budgets around the globe, especially among the leading European nations. Thus, in 2010 the British government announced that it would purchase only one type of F-35 Joint Strike Fighter from the US, thereby confirming earlier apprehensions that London could cancel plans to purchase the Short Take-Off and Vertical Landing (STOVL) version, the F35B. Both Italy and the Netherlands fall into this category, thereby affecting the American calculation of marketing and return on high investment costs in a highly volatile arms bazaar with a diminishing demand. In fact, the graphs of annual military/defence expenditure of France, ALTERNATE CUSTOMER: Export of the F-35 to India emanates out of compulsion rather than choice, because of cancellation of confirmed orders

December 2011

g SPOTLIGHT

F-35 DETAILS GENERAL CHARACTERISTICS Crew: 1 Length: 50 ft 6 in (15.37 m) Wingspan: 35 ft 0 in (10.65 m) Height: 17 ft 4 in (5.28 m) Wing area: 459.6 ft (42.7 m) Empty weight: 26,000 lb (12,000 kg) Loaded weight: 44,400 lb (20,100 kg) Max takeoff weight: 60,000 lb (27,200 kg) Powerplant: 1 Pratt & Whitney F135 afterburning turbofan o Dry thrust: 28,000 lbf[44] (128 kN) o Thrust with afterburner: 43,000 lbf (191 kN) Lift fan (STOVL): 1Rolls-Royce Lift Sys-

tem driven from either F135 or F136 power plant, 18,000 lbf (80 kN) PERFORMANCE

Maximum speed: >Mach 1.8 (1,200

mph, 1,931 km/h)

Range: 1,200 nmi (1,400 mi, 2,200 km)

Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK and others are all facing a downward spiral, thereby leading to the cancellation of high-end arms purchases. Thus, the economic downturn has led to drastic cancellation of confirmed orders of the four-nation (the UK; Germany; Italy and Spain) Eurofighter by the producers themselves, which partly explains the European consortium’s keen interest to get into India’s lucrative military mart. As regards the US, though it dominates the global arms industry in terms of arms sales, the massive cut in domestic budget vis-a-vis new and experimental armament by President Obama has led the US to shift its arms policy from domestic purchase to export market. Thus in August

on internal fuel

Wing loading: 91.4 lb/ft (446 kg/m) Thrust/weight:

the Brimstone anti-armor missiles, Cluster Munitions (WCMD) and High Speed Anti-Radiation Missiles (HARM). The MBDA Meteor air-to-air missile is currently being adapted to fit internally in the missile spots and may be integrated into the F-35.

o With full fuel: 0.968 o With 50 % fuel: 1.22

At the expense of being more

Combat radius: 600 nmi (690 mi, 1,110

km)

ARMAMENT 1 GAU-12/U 25 mm cannon Internally (current planned weapons

for integration), up to four AIM-120 AMRAAM, AIM-9X Sidewinder or AIM132 ASRAAM internally or two air-to-air and two air-to-ground weapons (up to two 2,000 lb weapons in A and C models; two 1000 lb weapons in the B model) in the bomb bays. These could be AMRAAM, the Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM), the Joint Standoff Weapon (JSOW), Small Diameter Bombs (SDB), 2010, the US President linked the proposed reforms (stemming from the comprehensive review of US arms export controls) to “enhancing the competitiveness of US manufacturing and technology sectors”, as part of a “wider drive to increase US exports and create jobs”. Here one may recall Obama’s clarion call to his domestic audience to “force open the Indian market for US job creation” on the eve of his state visit to India in 2010. Since India is an open-air opera house for foreign manufacturers from small arms to aircraft owing to her sustained and systematic failure to be self-sufficient (unlike China in the neighbourhood), one can recapitulate the oft-quoted internationallyaccepted description of New Delhi: “India offers a huge defence market.”

As India’s military expenditure in 2010 stood at an estimated $41.3 billion, India emerged as the world’s largest recipient of major conventional weapons thereby “reflecting www.geopolitics.in

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detectable by radar, many more missiles, bombs and fuel tanks can be attached on four wing pylons and two wingtip positions. The two wingtip pylons can only carry short-range air-to-air missiles (AIM-9s), while the Storm Shadow and Joint Air to Surface Stand-off Missile (JASSM) cruise missiles can be carried in addition to the stores already integrated. An air-to-air load of 12 AIM-120s and two AIM-9s is conceivable using internal and external weapons stations, as well as a configuration of six two thousand pound bombs, two AIM-120s and two AIM-9s. (Source: Open Encyclopedia Wiki) both the rapid pace of military modernisation and the inability of domestic industry to supply it”. The flip side of the story is that it has enhanced the value and importance of India as a consumer, thereby empowering her bargaining leverage to stipulate stringent purchasing conditions and giving suppliers economic incentive to cooperate with Delhi’s demands. The world knows that the capital expenditure (on equipment and infrastructure) of Delhi went up from 23 per cent in 2004-2005 and remained around 34 per cent ever since. This spending stands for the modernisation of the Indian armed forces. On the American front, however, “export to India” emanates out of compulsion rather than choice, as reduction or cancellation of confirmed F-35 orders potentially threatens the US politico-economics of employment. There also exists another recurring problem of technology transfer to the users of F-35 as the US still is “reluctant to divulge sensitive technological secrets” even to her closest western ally. The subject was at heart of dialogue between the US and the UK in 2005 and 2006 as the latter threatened to withdraw if denied access to technology required to “operate, sustain and upgrade aircraft, especially computer software codes”. Though this tricky issue was thought to be resolved in 2006, “in 2009 December 2011

g SPOTLIGHT

US Air Force

CLASSIFIED TECHNOLOGY: The US is still reluctant about divulging sensitive technological secrets, even to its closest allies

the US confirmed that it would not share computer software codes with anyone”. This US rigidity needs to be noted by India. If the UK, the closest and best friend of the US, with a shared history, culture, economics, technology and military operations, is denied access to F-35 technology, then what are the chances of India? The economics of the aircraft, from drawing board to the delivery bill, also raises concerns. Conceived in November 1994, the F-35 programme developed through the investment of billions of dollars by the US government for research and development undertaken by aviation giants Boeing, Lockheed Martin, McDonnell Douglas, Northrop Grumman, Pratt & Whitney (for aero engines) and the General Electric/Allison/Rolls Royce team for alternative power plants. Along with the deep commitment of US Department of Defence in the F-35 programme, the UK too had to shell out millions of dollars as demonstration phase cost, being the “full collaborative partner”. Other than this, Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Greece, Israel, Singapore, Spain and Sweden too incurred expenditure for collaborating with the US government for “System Development and Demonstration” (SDD). According to Jane’s All the World’s Aircraft 2011-2012: “Poland and South Korea are potential future additions.” In fact, there emerges an unspoken and unsigned understanding in the F-35 fighter programmeme which appears to suggest: “This is an ultra-high-tech, highinvestment risky project which could not be undertaken by the weak, meek and the backward; but even the advanced economics and technology nation like the US required partners for research and development. Hence anyone interested in the end-use of this advanced fighter must shell out money to be with the US from the very beginning. Remember, it is not a run-of-mill fighting machine because it is www.geopolitics.in

the military market’s sole 5th generation fighter aircraft for which we are extremely proud of, being the producer and users and would also like to be (and remain) thereof as the unique distributor.” Understandably, therefore, what ultimately stands out is the cost; and the cost is bound to be all-inclusive elements such as the procurement, logistics, maintenance, repair, overhaul, crew training, weapons and the avionics integration and what all have you to acquire and operate in an all-weather combat scenario in South Asia (in case India wishes to possess this aircraft). What then could be the unit cost of the single-engine F-35 for India? Will it be cheaper to procure or will it be economically prohibitive to operate and maintain for a period of say a life cycle of 30 years vis-a-vis the shortlisted twin-engine French Rafale or the four-nation Eurofighter Typhoon? Reportedly, the average unit cost of F35 can fluctuate anywhere between $50 million to $152.1 million thereby “showing marked disparity arising from differences relating to when aircraft were ordered, required support levels, weapon options” etc. Thus, the American budget documentation for “aircraft to be acquired in FY-2010 showed unit cost for US Air Force F-35A to be $130.6 million; and comparable figure for US Navy/Marine Corps aircraft was $152.1 million”. Now, if this unit price is calculated for “India’s requirement” (of anywhere between 126 and 199 aircraft), one can have a fairly clear idea as to what could be the sum total of the astronomical figure of India’s aviation assets in future! Compared to the American F-35, the four-nation Eurofighter Typhoon cost too could be anywhere between £50 million and £70 million per unit. And finally, when the French Air Force ordered 234

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French Dassault Rafale fighter aircraft for €26.4 billion in 2005, one can only guess as to what it takes to possess expensive, state-of-the-art brand-new fighter aircraft which a foreign country makes! The latest news for Lockheed F-35, however, is that the “US Marine Corps F35B total is now believed to have been reduced to just three in wake of the announcement by (the then) Defence Secretary Robert Gates in January 2011 that F35-B model was ‘on probation’ pending resolution of what he described as significant testing problems”. Further cancellation orders have come in from Canada from 80 to 65 and the Netherlands, 85 to 52. The planned UK procurement of 138 F35-B is also subject to major review. “In October 2010, it emerged that the UK would receive the F35-C version and that the quantity to be acquired could well be as low as 60” thereby inflicting a major blow to the F35-B variant. Ironically, the worst verdict on this high-tech aircraft came from the US National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform for cancellation of F35-B “on grounds of technical problems, rising cost and programmeme delay”. In short, with the F35-B likely to be operated by several “risk-sharing” European partners and possibly Israel, Singapore, Japan, Taiwan and Australia could India stand out as a separate class by itself? Being a market of (anywhere up to) 500 “high-value” combat aircraft during the next 10 years (when more planes will be decommissioned) the US urge to rope in Delhi is understandable. However, what could constitute an unparalleled future mystery is how India would cope with the “non-supply and non-sharing of computer software codes” by the US along with the “technical problems, rising cost and programmeme delay” which have upset even the programmeme managers of Washington DC? Should India take the American bait? If so, at what cost and purpose? (The author is an alumnus of the National Defence College) December 2011

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gONLOOKER Candid Dubya

China sent troops in 1956 to occupy parts of the Paracel islands. In 1974, one year before the end of the Vietnam War, when the islands were jointly controlled by China and South Vietnam, China used force to occupy all of the Hoang Sa islands, Vietnam has all legal and historical grounds to confirm its sovereignty.

NGUYEN TAN DUNG

Nguyen Tan Dung

Vietnamese Prime Minister

We were able to confirm the importance of international laws for the oceans, which are a public asset connecting the Asia-Pacific region. We welcome the United States’ decision to deepen its commitment [to the region].The Japan-U.S. alliance is the public property of the Asia-Pacific region. Japan will contribute to the peace and stability of the region through the alliance.

Peace overtures PIB

YOSHIHIKO NODA

GEORGE BUSH is blunt man and during a recent whistle stop trip to India to address CEOs at a private do, he had some straight forward things to say. He said India must be wary of China. The US, he said was the first target, next in line was India. And never, he said, do business with the George Bush Russians. As for the Pakistani, he said US patience was wearing thin; just as it was with Iran. “If Iran goes after Israel, the U.S. will go after Iran,” he was quoted as telling the CEOs.

PIB

SMALL TAKES

PIB

QUIPMETER

FOR A man who dethroned his father in a coup in 1995, Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, the Emir of Qatar, it’s quite an achievement to make his nation a diplomatic power house in the midst of warring Arab states. To strike a defence pact with Iran-a nation on the brink of war with every Arab nation — and to host the headquarters of the American Central Command, which

Yoshihiko Noda

Japanese Prime Minister

Hillary Clinton

nato.int

PIB

The United States does not take a position on any territorial claim, because any nation with a claim has a right to assert it, but they do not have a right to pursue it through intimidation or coercion. They should be following international law, the rule of law, the U.N. Convention on Law of the Sea.

HILLARY CLINTON

US Secretary of State

Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani

The dispute which exists among relevant countries in this region over the South China Sea is an issue which has built up for several years. It ought to be resolved through friendly consultations and discussions by countries directly involved. Outside forces should not, under any pretext, get involved.

Back from the cold

PIB

WEN JIABAO

Wen Jiabao

Chinese Prime Minister

The issue of sovereignty should be resolved according to international law and practice.

MANMOHAN SINGH

PIB

Indian Prime Minister

Manmohan singh

MA YING-JEOU Taiwanese President

Ma Ying-jeou

Aung San Suu Kyi

www.geopolitics.in

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December 2011

timessquaregossip.com

Wikimedia/Evo101469

In response to recent sovereignty disputes in the area, it is indeed necessary to pay attention to [the situation] but there is no need to overreact at this moment.

AUNG SAN Suu Kyi will soon contest elections. Speaking to members of the Council of Foreign Relation — just a day before Hillary Clinton’s historic trip to Myanmar — through a video conference, Suu Ki said she would contest the by-elections to fill 48 vacant seats that is likely to be held soon. But she was candid: her entry in politics was fraught with risk and there were imponderables. The operative part of that statement was that she personally trusted the President and former head of the Military Junta Thein Sein and added, “I cannot say that everybody in the government feels as he does.” Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton engaged with the Maynmarese Government — the first by a US Secretary of State since 1955 — indicated that it would reengage with them, slowly lift sanctions and gently suggested that it “sever illicit ties to North Korea”. Thein Sein called the visit “a historic milestone”.

Salafi who?

Turning the screws

It is no surprise that the Muslim Brotherhood has won over 40 per cent of the vote in the Egyptian elections, but what is astounding is the top showing of the ultraconservative Islamists, called Salafis. Every heard of them? The Salafis — as the Taliban — Mohamed Hussein Tantawi views regular or popular entertainment like music and cinemas as sinful and also believe women have no business to be in voting or public life. Poor Field Marshal Tantawai ! He has one hell of a job to handle !

It is unprecedented to say the very least. The Arab League’s unprecedented sanctions is literally ‘brother’ telling Bashar Al Assad that it was time for him to pack and leave; indeed, a serious political message to Bashar al-Assad Syria. The Secretary General of the Arab League, Nabil al-Arabi has said: “You have to behave, you have to stop what is going on, it’s not business as usual. Something has to happen.”

Dempsey’s take on 2020 ARMY GENERAL Martin E. Dempsey who is now the Joint Chief of Staff of the US Armed forces believes that the US Military Strategy for 2020 would mean juggling many balls at the same time: “We’re never going to try to build a force that’s only capable of doing one thing at a time,” he said. “That would be silly. It would be ill advised,” he said during a recent talk on the subject. “We’ve been focused and we’ve prioritized the Middle East, but there is every reason to believe that the next decade will see demographic shifts and economic shifts and military shifts into the Pacific.” Dempsey also believes that cyber warfare is a real threat and deserves far more attention.

Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir many times ignoring the request of International Criminal Court for alleged war-crime trials, the Emir has affected many a diplomatic coup de grace. The Emir’s most audacious diplomatic move is his effort to bring peace to Palestine. He hosted the Israeli trade mission till the Israeli offensive in Gaza in 2010. The Emir even made a conditional offer to reopen its trade mission if Israel were to allow building materials to Gaza. Israel declined the offer. He has also been hosting Hamas, the arch enemy of Israel which controls the Gaza Strip.

jcs.mil

would be responsible for launching attacks against Iran if war ever broke out between US and Iran, is an achievement which is very rare for any nation in history. Qatar has been successful in even keeping the details of the defence pact secret. Iranian leader Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, incidentally, is a regular visitor to Qatar. Today, Qatar is the Norway of West Asia, the regional peace superpower. From sorting out differences between political parties of Lebanon to solving the Sudan’s internal problem by guiding the government and rebels towards peace, and even hosting

PIB

dodmedia.osd.mil

O N L O O K E R

Martin E. Dempsey

Julia springs a surprise

courtesy sydney morning herald

IN A surprising-as much for Australians as it was for Indians — Prime Minister Julia Gillard argued that her country must take a Uturn its policy an agree to sell uranium to India. Her argument is that selling uranium to India for peaceful purposes will broaden Australian markets and increase jobs.” We must, of course, expect of India the same standards we do of all countries for uranium export - strict adherence to International Atomic Energy Agency

arrangements and strong bilateral and transparency measures which will provide assurances our uranium will be used only for peaceful purposes,” she wrote in her piece. Two key minister — resources Minister Martin Ferguson and Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd both support of selling uranium to India. Rudd had actually during his regime red penciled the proposed sale deal. But opinion in Australia is mixed: The Sydney Morning Herald in a hard-hitting opinion piece said ‘no’ to the deal:’ Some people argue it is hypocritical to export uranium to China without supplying it to India. But the facts are that China is a signatory of the Non-Proliferation Treaty while India is not. The argument that Australia should forgo its international obligations because of India’s “strategic importance” ignores the strategic importance of stability in Asia and of the global push for nuclear disarmament. Supplying uranium to India raises questions on whether we would supply uranium to other nonsignatories to the treaty, such as Israel or Pakistan — a country that already resents the preferential treatment enjoyed by its neighbor, India.” Wikimedia/Kate Lundy

www.geopolitics.in

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Julia Gillard

December 2011

g NUMBERSGAME

For China border

OVER THE next five years, the Indian government will increase the strength of the army by almost a lakh soldiers in order to counter increasing Chinese military

700

km — Range of new Pak missile

Indo-US military exercises held

ACCORDING TO a new Pentagon report, the US has come out as the largest military training partner for India and there have been as many as 56 ‘cooperative events’ between the armed forces of both countries in the past year. These range from dedicated exercises involving small teams like special forces training, to huge exercises similar to the Malabar series of naval war games. The Pentagon is looking for ways to expand exercises.

Bombs found on Assam bridge

THE INDIAN Air Force (IAF) has commenced the acquisition of 21 additional Hawk aircraft, built by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), Bengaluru. The Surya Kiran Acrobatic Team (SKAT) will now take to the air quicker, turn tighter and manoeuvre more dramatically than what they did with the vintage Kiran Mark II trainer aircraft that they have flown since 1996 with the new Hawk Advanced Jet Trainers. HAL will build another 21 Hawks after it builds the 123 aircraft ordered by the IAF and the Indian Navy. The IAF has commenced the ensuing acquisition of 21 extra Hawks trainer jets from BAE Systems. www.geopolitics.in

pakmr.blogspot

scramble.nl

here4share.blogspot

Hawks for Surya Kiran team

build-up along the border and other multifarious security tests in the region. According to a report in The Times of India, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) has approved a `64,000-crore military modernisation plan. As part of the plan, four new divisions would be raised along the Indian border with China. The scheme also incorporates the formation of two independent brigades: one in Uttarakhand and the other in Ladakh. After its approval, this plan would become the largest-ever modernisation and expansion drive for the army. The scale of the deployment would also make it the largest on the border with China since the Sino-Indian war of 1962.

Corwin Colbert\US Navy

panoramio.com

90,000

GEOPOLITICS

ACCORDING TO a Pakistani statement, the Hatf-7 cruise missile, which can hit targets in India, was aimed at consolidating the country’s strategic deterrence capability and strengthening national security. The Hatf-7 is a “low-flying, terrain hugging missile with high manoeuvrability, pinpoint accuracy and radar avoidance features”. The test of the “indigenously developed” missile, which has stealth capabilities, was successful. The test was aimed at validating the design parameters of the weapon system.

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A RAILWAY official averted a possible calamity when he found 10 crude bombs from a railway bridge on the Lumding-Badarpur hill section in southern Assam. According to Northeast Frontier Railway (NFR) spokesman Nilanjan Deb, the 10 powerful bombs together with detonators were found at a railway bridge between Mahur and Phiding stations on Lumding-Badarpur hill section. Several trains scheduled to ply through this section were stopped, averting possible disasters after the bombs were found by a railway trackman during a normal patrolling duty. December 2011

g NUMBERSGAME

500

New NIA posts created

Michael Sender

INDIA IS considering more Israeli Phalcons AWACS (Airborne Warning and Control Systems) aircraft. These highly sophisticated aircraft are equipped with a variety of sensors and are capable of detecting hostile aircraft, cruise missiles and other incoming aerial threat far before ground-based radars. The cost of the new systems is expected to be more than $800 million. The “draft contract” for the two new AWACS is now finally in the final stages of being examined.

140

200

Crore ‘grenade’ savings

THE FIREPOWER of Indian Army infantry units is set to be boosted with the shift from vintage hand grenades to the advanced, multi-mode grenades. Induction of these grenades would save the country `200 crore every year. The Army has placed an order of 18 lakh grenades against its actual requirement of 80 lakh to replace the existing M36 grenades. The existing vintage grenades can go off accidentally but the Shivalik grenade incorporates safety features to insure that this does not happen. The Navy and paramilitary forces have ordered these grenades.

weapons.technology.youngester.com

THE NATIONAL Investigation Agency is all set to expand by opening three new offices and increasing the organisation’s strength from the existing 400 to nearly 900. Set up after the 2008 Mumbai terror attacks, the NIA is assigned with cases related to terror. The move to expand the agency three years after its inception will raise the counterterror agency’s strength to 900, besides opening offices in Lucknow, Kochi and Mumbai, officials said.

On UN mission

THE CENTRAL Industrial Security Force (CISF) contingent widely referred to as ‘Bleus Indiens’ (Blue Indians) have been sent for the United Nations stabilisation mission to the Caribbean nation of Haiti to provide civil

police functions. The protection of civilians and United Nations personnel, facilities, installations and equipment and the security and freedom of movement will be some of the major responsibilities of this self-sustained contingent.

thesundayleader.lk

770

www.geopolitics.in

More AWACS for IAF

Crore for Jharkhand

UNION HOME Minister P Chidambaram has announced that the `770 crore grant would be released as part of the Integrated Action Plan (IAP) to complete development activities in Naxal-hit districts in this fiscal year. Chidambaram said all of the districts troubled by Naxal violence would be receiving `55 crore for development activities under the IAP scheme. He also pushed for the complete consumption of IAP fund released earlier by March-end.

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42,000 Jobs at DSC

INDIA WILL enlarge the manpower of the specialist Defence Security Corps (DSC) with the intention of boosting the security of its defence office and strategic installations across the country. The DSC, which carries out the task of protecting defence offices and vital strategic installations, will expand by more than 30 per cent before 2015. In the next four years, the Defence Security Corps plans to induct 330 extra platoons of around 30 men each with the new recruits. By and large, Army personnel who retire at a very young age are recruited by the DSC to provide them the prospect of reemployment.

December 2011

geopolitics n

DEFENCE

DIPLOMACY

SECURITY

@geoindica

geopolitics

DEF BIZ BOFORS AFFAIR Their turbulent past notwithstanding, the quality and effectiveness of the howitzer guns have never been questioned. That is why India requires them but would like to produce them indigenously baesystems.com

DEF BIZ

g Hiccups in India’s submarine plan

Pilatus

Decisive IAF deals cleared

Thales

New leadership at Thales India

www.geopolitics.in

‘PROJECT-75 INDIA’ to acquire six new-generation stealth submarines will take another two-three years to get finalised. The request for proposal (RFP) for P-75I to manufacture six submarines with international collaboration for over `50,000 crore, “is still several months away”. The Navy is faced with the alarming prospect of getting the P-75I boats much beyond 2020. The testimony of the committee, led by technocrat V Krishnamurthy, to assess the infrastructure and capabilities in private shipyards such as L&T, Pipavav and ABG to construct submarines, will now be presented to the Defence Acquisitions Council (DAC) chaired by Defence Minister AK Antony and the RFP is expected to be issued only by mid-2012.

RFI out for 3-D naval radar A REQUEST for Information (RFI) for 3D radars to enhance the observation capacity of warships has been issued by the Indian Navy. These new 3-D radars are to be installed on surface vessels with a gross weight of more than 3000 tonnes to afford 360-degree inspection to spot incoming anti-ship missiles, aircraft, and helicopters. The radar must track in three dimensions — range, height and direction — by design and be in tune with sophisticated combat

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management systems in use by the Indian Navy. Incidentally, the Defence Research and Development Organisation has already created 3-D radar systems. The DRDO’s successful Central Acquisition Radar (CAR) is for use with Akash surface-to-air missiles and is capable of tracking 150 targets. From the CAR, two variants have been developed. Rohini is the Indian Air Force variant and the Revathi is for the Indian Navy. Another variant, known as the 3D Tactical Control Radar, is being produced for the army. There have been media reports about the Indian Air Force discussing airborne surveillance and reconnaissance radars with Raytheon. These would be used along India’s borders to safeguard our skies against aerial intrusion and to pry into enemy airspace. December 2011

baesystems.com

ERIC LENSEIGNE has taken over as the Country Director and Managing Director of Thales India Private Limited. He has more than 23 years of experiEric Lenseigne ence in International Business and Market Development in Northern Europe, Russia, Middle East and Asia. He started his career with the Alcatel Group and rose to become Vice-President, Public and Regulatory Affairs at Alcatel-Lucent prior to joining the Thales Group in 2008. Before moving to India, Lenseigne was the Thales Group Country Director, Nordic and Baltic States and Managing Director of Thales Sverige based out of Stockholm, Sweden.

MICA fire-and-forget all-weather systems with French company MBDA has been in the offing for some time too. It came into being in conjunction with the `10,947crore programme for the upgradation of 51 Indian Mirage-2000 multi role fighters with French firms Dassault Aviation and Thales. Two fighters are being sent to France in January 2012 for upgradation and the rest of the fighters will be modernised in India by Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) with new weapon delivery and precision-targeting systems electronic warfare suites helmet-mounted displays, new avionics, radars, mission computers and glass cockpits.

defenseindustrydaily.com

TWO CRITICAL defence deals, valued at over `5,000 crore, have been reportedly cleared. The deal involves the acquisition of 75 Swiss Pilatus turbo-prop trainer aircraft and 450 French missiles. The missiles are for the Mirage-2000 multirole fighters. The Pilatus PC-7 basic trainers are essential for the Indian Air Force as 114 of the force’s piston-engine HPT-32 Deepak aircraft have been on the ground since August 2009 because of recurring engine failures. 123 British Hawk Advanced Jet Trainers (AJTs) are being inducted into the India Air Force for advanced combat training in a deal worth around `16,000 crore. The deal for nearly 450

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A GLOBAL tender valued at over $200 million has been sent out by the Indian Coast Guard to acquire 16 light helicopters to be set up on its ships to avert any repeat of the Mumbai attacks. The Request for Proposal (RFP) has been sent to three companies: Eurocopter, AgustaWestland and Sikorsky. The chopper manufacturers have been asked to submit their bids by the end of December. Eurocopter is preparing to field its twin-engined Panther helicopter. The Coast Guard wants these choppers to be outfitted with surveillance devices to perform search-and-rescue roles in coastal areas, according to the RFP.

Mahindra

Mahindra, Telephonics Corp form joint venture

Brig Khutub Hai

Joseph Battaglia

MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA and Telephonics Corporation, a US-based designer, developer and manufacturer of information and communication solutions, have signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to form a joint venture ( JV ) to manufacture radars and surveillance and communication systems for the Indian defence forces. The JV will provide systems for air traffic management services, homeland security, surveillance systems, Identifying Friend and Foe (IFF) equipment and radars for defence and civilian applications. A plant will be set up to manufacture and service airborne radar systems that are in service with Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd.

Bids invited for HAL IPO

THE PROCESS for the disinvestment in Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) has begun. The Government of India has invited proposals from merchant bankers for supervision of the Initial Public Offer (IPO) of Ministry of Defenceowned HAL. With this IPO, the government is proposing to dilute its stake in HAL by 10 per cent. HAL is expected to appoint four bankers — two domestic and two international ones, according to reports — for the sale of 10 per cent government stake. At present, the government has a 100 per cent stake in HAL. The government is also considering the issue of bonus shares to investors.

THE INDIAN Army has made a decision to introduce at least 114 Light Combat Helicopters (LCH) developed by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) which made its first flight in March 2010. The Indian Army is looking to augment its heli-borne firepower and a senior officer of the Army Aviation Corps is already overlooking the project. Simultaneously, the Army is also inducting weaponised Advance Light Helicopters (ALH), known as Rudra, which is fitted with 20mm turret guns, 70mm rockets and anti-tank-guided missiles (ATGMs). At present, the Army Aviation Corps has 250 helicopters and its workhorse Cheetahs and Chetaks are due for replacement. It is in this regard that the induction of 197 Light Observation Helicopters from foreign vendors is at its final stage.

THE INDIAN Army’s proposal to procure howitzers from the United States is expected to get a thrust with the Defence Ministry getting DRDO chief VK Saraswat for counsel on the acquisition. The deal had previously become delayed after the Ministry had misgivings following the Army’s testimony that the M-777 ultra-light howitzers would not fully meet qualitative requirements. The committee led by Saraswat will examine the trial reports of the gun and suggest whether to go forward with the purchase. Whereas the Army has already expressed that the divergence from desired specifications are not very significant, the ministry has appointed the committee to get an independent view.

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DRDO Chief on MoD panel for howitzers

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114 Light Combat Choppers from HAL

December 2011

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Rafale loses UAE bid the Dubai Air Show, said, “Thanks to French President Sarkozy, France could not have done more diplomatically or politically to secure the Rafale deal. Bilateral relations have never been stronger and his constant personal intervention in this process has sustained Dassault at the forefront of our considerations. Regrettably, Dassault seems unaware that all the diplomatic and political will in the world cannot overcome uncompetitive and unworkable commercial terms.” This has

opened the prospect for American and European fighters for the UAE bid. The UAE reportedly asked Eurofighter for data on the Typhoon, when officials met in Abu Dhabi in October, the European consortium announced at the air show. Dassault has been pitching for this order for the last three years. This would leave the French firm with only a single customer: the French military. Boeing has reportedly offered both the F-15 Strike Eagle and F/A-18 Super Hornet to the UAE.

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FRENCH PRESIDENT Nicolas Sarkozy’s “diplomatic and political” efforts to win the contract for the Rafale, Dassault fell short of United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) expectation. At the Dubai Air Show, UAE’s officials announced that Dassault Aviation’s bid to supply 60 Rafale warplanes was uncompetitive. General Shaikh Mohammad Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE armed forces, while touring

Emirati group introduces armed drone

ing three JF-17s for the price of one F-16, although it is not clear which version of the F-16 is being referred to. The JF-17 is a light-weight multirole combat aircraft with the capability for air-to-air interception and close-ground attack. On November 14, a JF-17 on a routine mission crashed in Attock, Pakistan. The crash happened just a day after Dubai Air Show, eclipsing its export prospects. This is the aircraft’s first reported crash.

jf-17.com

JF-17 THUNDER (Joint Fighter-17) also designated as FC-17 Xiaolong (Fighter China-17 Fierce Dragon) combat aircraft, the joint production of China and Pakistan made its Middle East flight debut at the Dubai Air Show 2011. Three of these aircraft were exhibited at the show. One of them performed while two were for static display. The jet is on offer with aggressive discounts to compete with frontline fighters. The Sino-Pakistani joint venture is offer-

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Militaryphotos.net

Pak offers discounted JF-17 fighter jet

ADCOM SYSTEMS, an Emirati company, has launched an armed drone called the United 40 at the Dubai Air Show. The Medium Altitude Long Endurance (MALE) plane will undergo testing in early December and is expected to be available to customers by February 2012. The Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehice (UCAV) can carry eight 60-kilometre range “Nemrod” missiles in its fuselage. These missiles have also been developed by Adcom and will be tested in January 2012. Adcom Systems, a consortium of 37 firms, chiefly creates drones used for training air force. The company also said that the technology for the United 40 was developed by them. The United 40 took five years to develop and with a wingspan of 17.5 metres, can carry a maximum payload of 400 kilogrammes and has a fuel capacity of 300 litres, of which 260 litres are in the wings. May 2011 2010 December

TECH SCAN

DRDO wins Thomson Reuters Innovation Award

Agni-IV missile test fired

AWARD FOR EXCELLENCE: KD Nayak, Chief Controller (R&D) (left), receives the award on behalf of DRDO from Ashwani Kumar, Minister of State for Science & Technology, Earth Sciences & Planning.

E-bomb to disorient foes

starwars.wikia.com

INDIAN ARMED forces will soon be equipped with an ‘electromagnetic bomb’ (e-bomb), under development by Terminal Ballistic and Research Laboratory (TBRL), one of the top defence research and development laboratories in the country. The e-bomb is touted as the most dangerous weapon after nuclear weaponry and the TBRL is expected to conclude the research and development (R&D) work on the project in the 12th plan period. The lone ballistic laboratory of Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), TBRL has built up the expertise and is operationalising a weapon, which would be capable of neutralising the command, control and communication systems of the enemy. TBRL Director, Dr Manjit Singh has said that such weapons would be capable of causing massive destruction, without affecting humans. The technology of ‘e-bomb’ would be based on explosive-driven high-energy pulse power technology.

R&DE to develop sonar domes for naval warships THE RESEARCH and Development Establishment (R&DE) at Dighi near Pune is working on a mission to create the country’s first home-grown glass fibre composite sonar domes. The sonar will be specially made for the Indian Navy’s 15 Alpha-class warships. Located on the hulls of submarines and surface ships, sonar domes are an essential constituent that house electronic equipment used for detection, navigation, and ranging. They are extremely handy for anti-submarine warfare. Till now, India has been importing its sonar domes from Germany. Only a small number of nations around the globe have the proficiency to construct this key element. The venture is also expected to go a long way in decreasing expenses on account of imports.

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www.geopolitics.in

IN RECOGNITION of its work in the field of science and technology, India’s premier military weapons developer, the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), was awarded the Thomson Reuters India Innovation Award for 2011. The award was presented to DRDO by Minister of State for Science and Technology Ashwani Kumar at an event organised by Thomson Reuters and the Confederation of Indian Industry. The defence research agency won the award in the “Hi-tech Academic and Government Institution” category. The winner was adjudged on the basis of size of patent portfolio, success rate, extent of globalisation and influence of innovation as the analytical parameters.

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INDIA TESTED its nuclear-capable surface-to-surface Agni-IV missile from a facility in Orissa. With a strike range of 3,500-km, thrilled Defence Scientists have proclaimed that the Agni-IV would add “fantastic deterrence” to the country’s nuclear weapons programme. It tested for a 3,000-km range — though the missile can easily go up to 3,500 km — from a road-mobile launcher at Wheeler’s Island off the Orissa coast last month. Lighter than Agni-II and Agni-III, Agni-IV is a completely fresh missile with two stages of solid propulsion and a payload with re-entry heat shield. There will be more tests launches of the Agni-IV before it is deemed fit for serial production induction. According to a DRDO Scientist: “The missile, with a payload reduced to 800-kg from 1,000-kg, followed its trajectory, attained a height of about 900-km and reached the pre-designated target in Bay of Bengal with very high level of accuracy after a 20-minute flight. Much lighter in weight than Agni-II and Agni-III, Agni-IV is an entirely new missile with two stages of solid propulsion and a payload with reentry heat shield. All mission objectives were fully met. All systems functioned perfectly till the end encountering re-entry temperatures of over 3,000-degree Celsius.” After introducing the Pak-specific Agni-I (700-km) and Agni-II (over 2,000-km) missiles, the Army is on its way to operationalise the 3,500km Agni-III following conclusion of its developmental and pre-induction trials last year.

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WARRIORS

The Indian Army’s grand Future Infantry Combat Vehicle project is an ambitious attempt at modernising the mechanised infantry. But, can it avoid the pitfalls that have dogged the artillery modernisation plans, asks ROHIT SRIVASTAVA

he modernisation of Indian infantry has been a long time in the offing. Unlike its sister services, like the Navy and the Air Force which have undergone huge modernisation plans, the Indian Army has had very few substantial upgrades. The mechanised force, which forms the cutting-edge of the Army, is the only branch which has undergone some modernisation with the induction of the Arjun and the T-90 tanks. www.geopolitics.in

That is the reason why the Future Infantry Combat Vehicle (FICV ) programme is considered a milestone in the history of Indian defence acquisition. The Indian Army is planning to replace its BMP-II Armoured Personnel Carriers (APC) with 2600 futuristic Infantry Combat Vehicles (ICVs). The FICV programme is going to be the first acquisition by the Indian armed forces under the ‘Make India’ procedure of the Defence Procurement Policy (DPP)

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2008. The rapid modernisation of the Indian armed forces has created numerous avenues for industry to offer suitable solutions. Under intense pressure from the industry, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) finally agreed to the ‘Make India’ procedure in DPP 2008. The ‘Make India’ procedure The DPP 2008 states, “The resurgence of the Indian industry today offers scope for their greater involvement in the Defence December 2011

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sector, due to availability of requisite skill and infrastructure for undertaking defence production and even research and development in some fields. The private sector can today harness the available expertise of the management, scientific and technological skills and also raise resources for investment in research and development, towards achieving our goal of self-reliance in the defence preparedness of the country.” DPP 2008 further says, “The report of the Kelkar Committee on review of the Defence Procurement Procedure had recommended an integrated approach involving users, the Ministry of Defence and the industry in the ‘Make Indian’ procedure.” Explaining the rationale behind the ‘Make Indian’ procedure, DPP says: “The aim of this procedure is to ensure Indigenous Research, Design, Development and Production of capabilities sought by the Armed Forces in the prescribed timeframe, while optimally utilising the potential of Indian industry. In addition, it would also achieve self reliance in Defence Equipment.” MV Kotwal, who is member of the L&T www.geopolitics.in

THE EXPRESSION OF INTEREST WAS ISSUED TO TATA MOTORS, L&T, MAHINDRA AND ORDNANCE FACTORY BOARD board and President — Heavy Engineering, said: “FICV is among the first major programmes announced by the government classified as in the ‘Make-India’ category. This is certainly a welcome development as seen from our perspective. This will give us an opportunity, if selected, to contribute significantly in developing a ‘state-of-the-art’ system for the defence services. This is also a clear indicator of the fact that, although long overdue, the government has finally started acting on the policy of involving the private sector in a bigger way.

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“The programme has the potential of combining the best of world-class technologies developed globally with the skills & talent available within the country to not only deliver a futuristic system but also provide life-cycle support indigenously. We have selected partners who, in our opinion, will deliver the best value in terms of technologies and cost. A very large portion of work, including design of the system, will be carried out internally. It is premature to specify the names of partners at this stage.” The ‘Make India Procedure’ has created an environment where the Indian defence firms can utilise their core competence to deliver indigenous solutions to the defence requirements while working with the end-user. Being a complex high-end system, the FICV will bring with it enormous expertise to the local industry. The technology will also be spread out across the small and medium-scale industry through the supply chain. This category requires 50 per cent indeginisation of technology. The FICV programme In October 2008, an MoD team visited December 2011

baesystems.com

THE NORDIC CONTENDER: Originally designed by Swedish company Hagglunds, the CV-90 is now made by BAE Systems

Sonaz

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various companies as part of a feasibility study, to assess whether Indian companies were capable of handling the FICV programme. The team was looking for the manufacturing, design, integration and production capabilities of possible vendors. As per industry sources, the Expression of Interest (EoI) was issued to four Indian companies, namely, Tata Motors, Larsen and Toubro (L&T), Mahindra Defence Systems and Ordinance Factory Board (OFB), in May 2010. The companies submitted their responses by October 2010. As per the plan, the shortlisting of two vendors was expected by April 2011, but it is now expected by December 2011 or January 2012. Indian firms have teamed up with foreign manufacturers for this project. Mahindra has joined hands with BAE Systems while L&T is collaborating with numerous small firms and Tata Motors and Rheinmetall have come together. BAE Systems has prior experience of developing and producing infantry combat vehicles (ICV ) like the CV90, while Rheinmetall produces the Puma ICV. OFB has prior experience of manufacturing the BMP II, which the FICV is supposed to replace. The competition is going to be very tough. OFB has one important trump card in the form of the now idle Ordnance Factory at Medak, where the BMP IIs were manufactured. Debasis Ray, Head of PR at Tata Motors, www.geopolitics.in

said: “Tata Motors has bid for the FICV programme as a prime contractor, with technology tie-ups with various OEMs for various systems and equipment. One of them is Rheinmetall Land Systems (RLS), Dusseldorf. Tata Motors and RLS have made a number of joint presentations to the Indian Army and the Ministry of Defence and issues that you refer to did not come up. Tata Motors does not have any relationship with Rheinmetall Air Defence (RAD), Zurich, who, we understand through media reports, has been named in some CBI documents.” The EoI is an operational document that underlines the requirement of service. The EoI of the FICV provides details of the capabilities that the Army is looking for in its next-generation combat vehicle for the contingencies of the next two decades at least. The BMP II, the current armoured carrier, which India has, is of 1980s vintage and it cannot be upgraded any more to meet tomorrow’s requirements. As per the EoI, the mandatory requirement of the FICV covers all possible capabilities that Indian Army aspires for in its ICVs. The combat vehicle must have space for seven soldiers in full battle load along with three crewmen. The vehicle must have an active-protection system (APS) for early warning against threats such as anti-tank missiles, rocketpropelled grenades, mortars, etc. The active protection system must be capable of launching remedial measures automatically, which include chaff,

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TEUTONIC KNIGHT: The Puma is made by Krauss-Maffei Wegmann and Rheinmetall Landsysteme

smoke, etc, to deflect or confuse threats by interfering with the sensor system of the incoming missiles. The EoI mentions that the FICV should have an automatic cannon system, although it doesn’t mention the cannon’s calibre. The vehicle must be equipped with the third-generation antitank guided missiles (ATGMs). At present, Indian forces use second-generation ATGMs and, therefore, the FICV will have the latest ATGM from a third vendor. FICVs will also have to be capable of amphibious tasks. These vehicles are expected to be in service from the year 2020 through to 2060. Companies have been asked to submit separate proposals for the wheeled and tracked versions. The two systems are required to use common parts for cheap production and hassle-free maintenance. As per industry sources, whenever the commercial proposal will be released, it will be for the wheeled version only, but the Army is also interested in the tracked version and, therefore, an additional proposal for a tracked version will be submitted. Around 20 per cent of the total number could be for tracked variants. A substantial part of India’s border is in the desert where movement of wheeled vehicles is a problem. Tracked vehicles are best suited for desert manoeuvres because the persquare-inch weight is much less than that December 2011

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of wheeled vehicles, as the weight gets equally distributed across the track. Industry sources suggest that a modular design has been called for. The electronics will have to be flexible and integration-friendly, as the Indian Army is in pursuit of the Battlefield Management System and will soon shift to a net-centric mode. Vendors’ prototypes should be able to integrate with both these future systems with ease. The Integrated Project Management Team (IPMT), which is headed by a twostar General from the Directorate General of Mechanised Forces, is evaluating the responses submitted by the four developing agencies. As per our sources, the IPMT has struck down the OFB proposal on the ground of the project being incomplete and submitted its report in October 2011. The final shortlisting of the two vendors by the Defence Production Board, which will develop prototypes for user trials, is expected by December 2011 or January 2012. Going by the current timeline, the project is late by nine-months, and if the delay continues, it will take another four to five months for the signing of the development contract. The two shortlisted companies can think of receiving their share of development funds by May 2012 and the project will take another two to three years in developing a prototype. The MoD will fund 80 per cent of the prototype development cost and the rest of the 20 per cent will be funded by the developing firm.

A senior executive of one of the contenders informed Geopolitics, “We have invested `50 crore by now and this will not take less than six more months for shortlisting. We are already nine months late and we are answerable to our share holders. We have to fight for every penny for any future investments in the project.” Till the time of going to the press Mahindra Defence Systems had not responded to our e-mail request for a perspective on the programme. Nevertheless, the industry is upbeat about the project. The general impression is that the windfall for the industry is going to be huge. This project is going to create huge opportunities for Tier 2 and Tier 3 industries. The sheer volume of the business is expected to surpass all previous deals. At present, the pricing is coming to around `2-13 crore for the vehicle and with the ATGM it is expected to reach the `15-16-crore mark. According to a source in the industry, the total cost plus the yearly inflation for the project duration is going to reach around `65,000 crores. The OFB is also going to get a share of around 30 per cent of the total vehicles for manufacturing. This is just to keep the OFB busy in case it loses the contract. Sources believe that this indicates that the OFB will not get the contract. Government sources believe: “Some companies might be actually fielding a different version of the foreign collaborators infantry carriers. If this turns out to

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DUE FOR REPLACEMENT: Derived from the BMP-II, Sarath is the vehicle the Army wants to replace in favour of the FICV

be true, then the whole purpose of the ‘Make India’ initiative will be defeated”. But contenders are also not very happy with the inclusion of Rheinmetall in the bid with Tata, as the CBI had recommended it for blacklisting. Contenders believe that in case the government chooses Tata and a contender chooses to go to court, then the deal might get delayed, and this will have serious implications on the rest of the contenders and Indian Army’s induction plans. Sources in government believe: “This is the first ‘Make India’ project which is going through and the aim is not to muddle it up. This is going to boost the defence industry and by getting companies with a tarnished image what good are we going to do? We must keep in mind the problems we are facing in the artillery acquisition deal.” As usual, Defence Ministry spokesman had a deadly silence to offer when asked through e-mail for his reaction on the programme. If all goes well, the prototype should be ready for field trials by 2015. After the trials, production will take another couple of years to start, so we can expect the much-vaunted FICV project to be ready by at least 2018. December 2011

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INTERVIEW

END-TO-END SECURITY SOLUTIONS

Mistral Solutions has brought in a virtual revolution in the field of defence electronics with an array of products for telemetry, avionics, early warning system and electronic warfare. ROHIT SRIVASTAVA spoke to Chairman and Co-Founder ANEES AHMED about the pioneering equipment being introduced by his company Tell us about how and when you entered into this business? Mistral has been in the business of defence electronics and embedded solutions for 14 years, from its establishment in 1997. We are headquartered in Bengaluru and have offices in the United States (Santa Clara and Dallas), Hyderabad and Delhi. Defence electronics is our key focus. Last year, we set up a homeland security solutions division to cater to the homeland security requirements in India. Given our experience and expertise in the defence solutions market, our foray was a strategic move in a growing homeland security market. Currently, Mistral offers customised solutions for Mass Transit Security, Citizen Security, Critical Infrastructure Protection, Mobile C4ISR platforms and also our own unique wireless IP cameras.

www.geopolitics.in

division works along with the silicon semiconductor manufacturers on their new chips being developed. By the time

BLAZING THE TRAIL: Mistral Chairman and Co-Founder Anees Ahmed at the console of one his firm’s state-of-the-art products

H C Tiwari

What are your main offerings in defence and homeland security solutions? Mistral focuses on three domains: Product Engineering Services, Defence Solutions and Homeland Security. In the defence domain, we deal primarily with Indian defence firms such as the Defence Research Development Organisation (DRDO) laboratories and are involved in many defence programmes including defence electronics, telemetry, avionics, early warning systems, electronic warfare and radar signal processing, among others. Mistral’s Homeland Security division offers ready-to-deploy, proven high-technology security solutions for strategic and tactical requirements for Public Sector Undertakings (PSUs), paramilitary forces, law-enforcement and government

agencies. We are not an IT company, but a technology solutions company. Mistral’s Product Engineering Services (PES)

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g INTERVIEW the new silicon semiconductor hits the market, the team at Mistral brings out the development platforms for customers to bring up their products. We offer design services and reference designs for companies across domains like consumer electronics, industrial, automotive and telecom. The PES team has worked on various high-technology futuristic electronic gadgets. So Mistral operates in a broad spectrum of technologies. But what is your area of core competence? Our core competence is our system engineering services that include design of electronic hardware and embedded software. Our defence electronics have gone into most of the radar programmes in the last few years in India, such as flight location, battle field location radar, weapon locating radar, airborne radar, Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) systems, and the submarine programme that involves a lot of signal

processing. Mistral has also been involved in the laser guidance and telemetry of missile systems. A single module, such as our data acquisition cards, can be a part of any sub-system such as signal processing, data processing or laser guidance. We have successfully completed many design service projects over the past 14 years. You were one of the most prominent Indian firms at INDESEC Expo 2011. How was your experience? We were focusing mainly on our Homeland Security division in INDESEC 2011. We were showcasing our solutions, which could be ideally suited for the police, paramilitary forces and Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA). Our solutions are relevant to the Indian homeland security market and targets domains such as critical infrastructure protection, citizen security (Dial-100 and Safe City) and mass transit. You have indigenously developed a C4ISR (Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance) system. Tell us a bit more about it. Our C4ISR Platforms are integrated solutions, with our command and control module integrated into the systems used by different forces such as police, fire, ambulance, hospitals, border and coastal surveillance, etc. With this integrated platform, all forces will be able to work and communicate with each other in case of an emergency situation. As this integration of systems is possible with the existing infrastructure, the law and order forces in our country will be able to upgrade the infrastructure to meet the security requirements in a quicker and more efficient manner. The system engineering work for our C4ISR platforms is done in India now but was designed and developed in Spain. The command & control modules have been deployed in Europe and Middle East, among other places. We have started deploying them in India now. Some of the state government departments such as Karnataka and Gujarat have already deployed our command and control solutions. We are expecting to add around eight states more by the year-end. Our systems are very easy to use with minimal training required for the personnel operating the system. We have

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very high engineering capability with over three hundred engineers employed with us. We have a vast experience in cutting-edge legacy designing. Our products are used by paramilitary forces and police in India. Mistral has designed wearable camera and microphone, which can transmit video and audio live to headquarters or back office. We have also designed wearable computers with 15-inch screens that work on voice commands. With the use of these wearable computers, police and paramilitary personnel can access information that is located on a server some distance away. Our solutions are vendor-friendly; products from different vendors can be integrated with our solution to develop a fully integrated security ecosystem. Critical infrastructure solutions have become major requirements for the nation, especially after 26/11. Tell us about your offerings in this regard. Critical infrastructure includes electric power plants, dams, oil refineries, reservoirs, key establishments such as government offices, industries, technology parks and heritage and religious sites. Our critical infrastructure solutions called CIPro, are complete solutions with command control and communication modules, mobile vehicle, perimeter security, cameras, motion sensors, radar, sonar and access control, integrated on a single platform. These solutions are customised based on customer requirements and the infrastructure to be secured. Private industries have responded positively to our CIPro solutions and we have started deployment in one of the largest ports in Gujarat. Finally, tell us about your future plan and how you wish to see yourself in this emerging market. Homeland security is going to be one of the fastest-growing markets in India. There are not too many players at present in India. We are targeting revenues to the tune of `100 crore coming from our homeland security business division in a couple of years. We have signed Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) with large defence contracts for the offset business. We expect projects to come by around 2013-14 in a big way. Being a focused company, Research and Development (R&D) work undertaken in Mistral is done based on a customerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s requirements. December 2011

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FOCUS

RESURRECTING A LEGEND: The FH-77

is back for a second innings with the Indian Army, this time in a new avatar with the assistance of BAE Systems

BOFORS TO THE RESCUE… AGAIN! The Bofors scandal caused a virtual drought in the procurement of long-range artillery systems, but after repeated failures at looking for alternatives, the Indian Army, reports ROHIT SRIVASTAVA, might just get a fresh batch of the same guns — this time made in India www.geopolitics.in

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uring the Kargil War, the 155mm/39 calibre FH 77 Bo2 towed howitzer from Bofors was crucial in dislodging the intruders perched on top of the strategic heights. The excellent range and accuracy of the Bofors gun helped win the war for India and the muchmaligned Bofors won hearts. Since then, many in India have been regretting the mess that created one of the best defence deals struck in the nation. The deal got mired in scandals before the completion of the full conditions of the contract which included license production with full transfer of technology. Since the Bofors scandal, India has not been able to procure any new artillery gun system. After two decades of searching, India might just end up manufacturing the same Bofors guns. It seems the Ordnance Factory Board (OFB) had the blueprints

of these guns since the 1980s, but no one was aware of it! After years of failed trials and scuttled request for proposals, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) seems to have woken up to this fact and decided to get the FH 77 Bo2 guns manufactured by the OFB. After discussions with the Army and the OFB, the MoD has decided to give the go-ahead to the OFB to manufacture six 39 calibre guns. According to sources, the Army is expected to buy 414 artillery guns of 39 calibre. Though the Armyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Request for Proposal (RFP) for towed guns had specified 1580 guns, the current proposal states that that the Army has the option for 1000 more guns after the completion of the order for 414 guns. The guns will be manufactured by the OFB, which will be the prime contractor and it is expected that Defence Land Systems India, a joint venture between Mahindra and BAE Systems, will be

(continued on page 39)

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December 2011

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supporting them if required. The cost of the 414 guns is expected to touch $1.5 billion. The OFB-manufactured gun is expected to be ready by June 2013 for field trials. The OFB will also manufacture a 45 calibre version of the 155/39 calibre gun but sources suggest that the Army is interested in the 39 calibre classic version only. Army gunners swear by this gun and the performance of the guns in Kargil is still fresh in their memory. It is worth mentioning that in the past the OFB had also undertaken the upgradation of the M46 130 mm field artillery gun to 155 mm. According to the OFB, the range of the gun increased to 39 kilometres from 30 km after the upgrade. The project also gave OFB the confidence to manufacture the 155 calibre guns. The whole debate about artillery guns boils down to the calibre of the gun, which is actually the length of the barrel of the gun divided by the diameter of the ammunition. The larger the caliber, the longer is the range. The 39 calibre gun has a range of around 35 kilometres and the 45 calibre gun has a range of 37-38 kilometres. The 52 calibre gun, which India has asked in all its RFPs as a standard calibre, has a range of 40 kilometres. If the current plans succeed, then the maximum calibre of guns in the Indian armoury will be 45 calibre. The difference in the range from the requested 52 calibre will be around 3 kilometres. This is not a very significant difference as no gun operates at its maximum range during war. This is a compromise India will have to bear with to

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WANTED: CORRUPTION-FREE

DEFENCE ACQUISITIONS

In spite of several revisions to promote transparency and competition since its promulgation in 2002, the Defence Procurement Procedure has not eased the supply of essential weaponry and armaments to the armed forces. MRINAL SUMAN suggests a way out

n August 2011, Defence Minister AK Antony assured the Rajya Sabha that India’s Defence Procurement Procedure “contains stringent provisions aimed at ensuring the highest degree of probity, public accountability and transparency”. In support of his assertion, he drew attention to three facets: mandatory signing of Pre-Contract Integrity Pact in procurement cases of the estimated value exceeding `100 crore; provisions prohibiting engagement of agents or use of undue influence; and, compulsory issuance of Request for Information (RFI) to provide advance information and encourage a wider vendor base. International arms trade is characterised by secrecy. It, therefore, lends itself to malpractices. According to Transparency International, the defence trade appears in the top three sectors for bribery and corruption (oil and major infrastructure projects being the other two). Worse, as per estimates of the US government, while accounting for less than 1 per cent of the international trade, the arms trade accounts for almost 50 per cent of all kickbacks in the world. The Indian defence procurement system has been dogged by allegations of irregularities. All major deals have drawn flak for lack of transparency and financial impropriety. Despite the Defence Minister’s own unblemished standing and his repeated declarations of zero tolerance for corruption, the environment continues to remain wary of the procurement system. Many vendors remain convinced that ‘speed money’ has become an integral feature of doing business with the official machinery.

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Further, it has been made mandatory to obtain realistic inputs as regards formulation of practical parameters, costing and technology from the industry by issuing RFI to maximum manufacturers. For that, appropriate publicity (through advertisements and website) has to be given to all proposed procurements, albeit keeping security concerns in mind.

SHORING UP THE HOME FRONT: File picture of Defence Minister AK Antony unveiling the Defence Production Policy, in January 2011 with the Minister of State for Defence, MM Pallam Raju and the then Secretary, Defence Production, RK Singh

PIB

The Indian system The Defence Procurement Procedure (DPP) has undergone six revisions since

its promulgation in 2002 and a number of provisions have been introduced to promote transparency and competition. Future needs of the armed forces are to be shared with the industry through a public version of perspective document outlining the technology perspective and capability road map covering a period of 15 years.

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December 2011

g FOCUS As regards field trials, they have to be conducted as per the methodology intimated to vendors at the outset through Request for Proposals (RFP). After each stage of trials, all vendors have to be debriefed in a common meeting regarding the performance of their equipment. All verbal communications are to be confirmed to vendors in writing within a week. Results of technical evaluation with reasons for disqualification have also got to be intimated to all unsuccessful vendors. For all proposals with indicated value in excess of `300 crore, a Technical Oversight Committee has to be constituted to confirm that the trials, trial evaluations, compliance to Services Qualitative Requirements (SQR) and selection of vendors had been done according to the prescribed procedures. The Defence Minister had referred to the introduction of Pre-Contract Integrity Pact as a major measure to ensure probity. DPP mandates that an Integrity Pact be signed between the government procurement agency and the bidder for all defence procurements exceeding ` 100 crore. Under the Integrity Pact, the

government promises that its functionaries will not demand bribes while the bidder promises not to offer any bribe, commission or inducement to any official. As can be seen, an Integrity Pact is nothing more than a statement of intent to refrain from malpractices. Pledges mean little to the dishonest. It is juvenile to believe that corrupt functionaries who do not fear penal/disciplinary punishments would be deterred by the moral code of Integrity Pact. It is an over-hyped and a meaningless provision. As a matter of fact, Integrity Pact provides a pretense to the deceitful. Appointment of Independent Monitors (IM) to oversee the implementation of Integrity Pact is another much-overrated provision. Complaints received by the government from the vendors are to be referred to IM for comments/ enquiry. It is for the government to take appropriate action on the reports submitted by IM. It cannot accept complaints directly from aggrieved vendors. The role of IM is thus limited to submitting reports on complaints forwarded to it by the government. Neither does it have any independent oversight powers nor can it order prosecution for violation of IP.

A MEANINGLESS PROVISION, THE INTEGRITY PACT ONLY PROVIDES A PRETENSE TO THE DECEITFUL Vulnerability to influences The defence procurement process consists of two stages: planning and acquisition. During the planning stage, inter-se precedence accorded to the acquisition proposals contained in the Services Capital Acquisition Plan can be manipulated subjectively. As resources are never adequate to fund all proposals, any proposal in which a favoured vendor is confident of emerging successful can be assigned higher priority. As regards the acquisition stage, numerous opportunities are available to the insincere to influence decisions unfairly. Some of the common ones are as follows:www.geopolitics.in

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While ensuring avoidance of a singlevendor situation, parameters can be formulated to favour a chosen vendor, thereby eliminating genuine competition. During field trials, parameters that are descriptive in nature and are not quantifiable can be viewed subjectively with a view to play favourites. During quality assurance and maintainability tests, assessing officers can be prevailed upon to act partisan in their reports. Preparation of Staff Evaluation can be skewed to favour a chosen vendor by highlighting minor glitches of competing equipment to rule them out. As determination of the lowest bidder is a complex process more so in the case of the Life Cycle Costing technique, Commercial Negotiation Committee has enough leeway to manipulate overall quote by subjective treatment of various contributory factors like basic cost, support equipment, services, spare parts, warranty obligations and repair facilities. Once the commercial negotiations are over, the complete case is sent to the designated Competent Financial Authority (CFA) for final sanction to sign the contract. It is a critical stage and viewed with trepidation by all successful vendors. A corrupt CFA can either abort the case or delay his sanction till he is duly gratified by the vendor concerned. It is considered to be the biggest hurdle Although offsets carry enormous financial repercussion, being appendages to main contracts they remain out of close scrutiny. Lack of sincere appraisal, oversight and monitoring provides ample opportunities to dishonest vendors to make unfair gains. The way ahead Keeping these vulnerabilities in the background, steps must be taken to ensure probity in defence acquisitions. The government must display determination to initiate radical reforms to insulate the system from the dishonest influence of the unscrupulous. The following measures will go a long way to impart necessary credibility to the system: Need for separate trial agency: It is essential that the trial agency be independent of the authority that is preparing the proposal and evolving December 2011

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baesystems.com

SIGHT FOR SORE EYES: India finally ordered the Hawk advanced jet trainer from BAE in 2004 after years of wrangling

qualitative requirements. The US Army has an independent Army Test and Evaluation Command responsible for developmental testing, independent operational testing, independent evaluations, assessments and experiments of army equipment to provide essential information to the acquisition decision makers. Such an arrangement ensures that no single individual/entity can exercise unhealthy influence on the process. Policy on employment of agents: Although the Prime Minister has conceded that middlemen cannot be wished away and stressed the need to regulate their functioning, the government does not know how to proceed in the matter. It has taken the easy way out by banning employment of middlemen, agents and intermediaries. Middlemen are ubiquitous in all trade transactions and it is well nigh impossible to eliminate them. Whereas open registration of middlemen could facilitate oversight, the government has driven them underground by proscribing their employment, thereby giving rise to suspicions about their modus operandi. It is essential that the policy be changed, middlemen given due recognition and their functioning regulated. Adoption of matrix: India should discard the current highly flawed system of formulating essential parameters and adopt Performance Matrix System www.geopolitics.in

(PMS) that defines performance parameters in the form of a range. The lower end specifies minimum inescapable requirement while the upper end benchmarks maximum acceptable limit and extra credit is awarded as per pre-decided relative weightage. By translating all parameters into measurable, gradable and comparable parameters, subjectivity can be totally eliminated.

IT IS OF UTMOST IMPORTANCE THAT ACQUISITION STAFF BE OF UNIMPEACHABLE INTEGRITY Time-bound clearances: Although DPP lays down broad guidelines for the completion of different acquisition activities, they are neither taken seriously nor adhered to. It is essential to enforce timelines strictly. Any functionary who stalls the process or delays case files on specious grounds must always be viewed with suspicion and proceeded against. Institution of effective oversight

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mechanism: India must do away with IP and IM. They contribute little to curbing malpractices. On the contrary, they give a false sense of complacency. An effective oversight mechanism is absolutely indispensable. There should be a credible mechanism for handling of complaints and redressal of grievances. The shroud of secrecy breeds corruption in defence deals and transparency is the best antidote to counter the malaise. Whereas it is understandable that national security concerns preclude wide publicity of functional aspects of equipment under procurement, excessive stress on secrecy in the whole procurement process is certainly not warranted. The services must curb their propensity to accord unduly high security classification to procurement proposals. More importantly, instead of assigning blanket security classification to a case, every proposal can be split into classified and unclassified components. Finally, in addition to putting foolproof safeguards in place, acquisition staff must be selected with care. A system is as good as the people who operate it. Therefore, it is of utmost importance that acquisition staff be of unimpeachable integrity and unblemished track record. Diligent, meticulous and conscientious functionaries are Indiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s best bet against manipulations in defence deals. (The author is a retired Major General) December 2011

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manufacturer, has been acquired by Elbit. Soltam, however, has been recommended by the CBI for blacklisting. With Nexter not qualifying, the procurement will become a single-vendor deal, which is not allowed under the current defence procurement procedures. THE STAR OF KARGIL: The updated version of the legendary gun during trials

According to sources, Nexter has asked for a two-year period to provide the gun for trials while Elbit has asked a year’s time. Our queries to these companies did not receive any response. A similar situation has emerged in the procurement of 180 wheeled artillery pieces of 155/ 52 calibre. The RFP for wheeled artillery was cancelled last month. The RFP was issued to many companies in 2008, of which three were selected after evaluation of proposals, namely, Konstrukta, Rheinmetall and Samsung. Samsung did not qualify and was subsequently eliminated in 2009 and Rheinmetall has not met the qualitative requirements of the RFP. According to reports, the guns fielded by the Rheinmetall and Konstrukta are prototype guns and not in service in their own nations, namely Germany and the Czech Republic respectively. The sorry state of the gun-procurement procedure continues but now all hopes are pinned on the success of OFB in manufacturing the FH 77 BO2 guns. If the endeavour meets with success, the artillery’s dry spell will come to an end and India will be able to manufacture its own artillery guns in large numbers.

baesystems.com

replace its old guns and to increase its long-range artillery from its limited number of 400 pieces to 1500. As per military sources, the Army can overcome the shortage in the range by using better ammunition. Ammunition can be specially designed to increase the range by 10 per cent. A type of ammunition whose range the Indian Army is looking forward to increasing is Charge 6 BMCS. If all this goes according to the plan of the ministry, then the need for any new foreign gun will be over. The recent RFP for the towed gun, where Elbit of Israel and Nexter of France were the two contenders, has faced scrutiny as Nexter had not met the technical requirement of the Army. The Indian Army had asked for a 155mm-52 calibre towed artillery gun. The current RFP was issued in this January where BAE, the most-awaited contender, didn’t participate. Industry sources suggest that BAE was not happy with lowering the qualitative requirements of the RFP which allowed other substandard guns to participate. It is worth mentioning that Israel’s Elbit system doesn’t manufacture its own guns; in fact, Soltam, an Israeli gun

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December 2011

PERISCOPE

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Army inducts BrahMos Block-II

INDIA AND CHINA are preparing to renew their joint military exercise with a fresh round in 2012. This development comes after the two countries decided to restart their bilateral military exchanges a few months ago. The preparation for the new exercises will be undertaken during the next round of consultative talks between the two nations in December 2011, where a plan for bilateral exchanges and interaction will also be worked out. If the details of the exercises are finalised then these would be the first joint exercises between the two countries in nearly four years. The first bilateral exercise or ‘Hand-in-Hand’ exercise, as they are called by the two sides between the two Asian titans, was held in 2007 in Kunming in China. The second was held in December 2008 at Belgaum in Karnataka. The mutual exercises have not taken place since 2008 for a variety of reasons including the 60th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China in October 2009. The bilateral exchanges were suspended by India after Lt. Gen BS Jaswal, the then Northern Army Commander was denied a visa by China in 2010. The military exchanges resumed in April this year after the Prime Minister’s trip to attend the Brazil Russia India China and South Africa (BRICS) summit in Sanya in China.

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PIB

THE ENVIRONMENT Ministry has thrown a spanner in the works for an Indian Navy plan to test-fire missiles from the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. The Ministry is apparently concerned about the danger to the indigenous species on the ecologically-sensitive area of the islands. The Island is question — Tillanchang — is home to an endangered bird species, the Nicobar Megapode. A panel of experts has told the Environment Ministry that the testfiring of missiles will affect the lifecycle of the Nicobar Megapode. The issue came to light after the Navy asked for authorisation from the Environment Ministry to make use of the forest land on the island and set up temporary structures for testing the accuracy of missiles fired from submarines.

A NEW regiment of BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles has been introduced into the Indian Army. The new regiment has been equipped with a Block-II version of the missile, created to hit a specific target with a low radar cross-section in a cluttered environment. The BrahMos is a precision strike weapon with a 290-km strike range, which cruises at a supersonic speed in the range of 2.8 Mach. The next edition being readied to be introduced into the Indian Army will be the Block-III version, which will have a “steep dive ability”, and will take out targets hidden behind a mountain range, for instance. The induction of an additional regiment of BrahMos missiles by the Indian Army to be set up in Arunachal Pradesh to bolster the defences in the east has been endorsed by the government.

2012 deadline for Bhatinda airbase

nellis.af.mil

topnews.in

chchindits.blogspot.com

Sino-Indian Eco hurdle for Navy military exercises missile test

CURRENTLY UNDERGOING a major revamp under the modernisation of Air Force Infrastructure (MAFI) plan, the Bhatinda Air Force base in Punjab will be ready for operations by 2012. The $240 million deal to modernise the Air Force

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station was bagged by Tata Power SED. The contract involves construction of new runways, a new lighting system and the installation of Air Traffic Control (ATC) systems. American firm Raytheon will be installing the Auto Trac III systems as part of the ATC modernisation equipment at the Indian Air Force stations. Raytheon has already commenced work on 30 IAF stations in the first phase of the programme and in the second phase another 25 stations will be modernised. Air Force stations began the modernisation programme in July this year when phase one started. The modernisation efforts of the second phase will begin in 2013. December 2011

GEOPOLITICS

Rudra choppers for Pak border

defence forum india

THE RUDRA Advanced Light Helicopter (ALH) is all set to give the Indian armed forces some much-need punch on the western border with Pakistan. A weaponised form of the ALH, with air-to-air and anti-tank missiles, the Rudra, will be deployed along the Pakistan boundary in the near future. Armed with a 20 mm turret gun, and 70 mm rockets along with the missiles, the Rudra is about to be inducted into the Indian armed forces. By providing commanders on the ground with powerful and mobile fire support, the armed helicopters will be an invaluable asset on the front. The officers will be able to direct the armed helicopters to specific locations to turn the tide of battle with its devastating firepower. The

Rudra is named after Lord Shiva who is the destroyer of enemies in mythology. The helicopter weighs 5.5 tonnes and is equipped with advanced features like a Full Authority Digital Electronic Control, Automatic Flight

India to equal Chinese infrastructure surge

PIB

NIRBHAY IS an indigenously developed subsonic missile being developed by the Defence Research and Development Organisation’s (DRDO) Advanced Systems Laboratory. According to DRDO Chief VK Saraswat, the missile is going through its final integration stage. The Nirbhay is India’s second cruise missile after BrahMos. Unlike the BrahMos which is a supersonic missile capable of attaining speeds of up to Mach 2.8 or nearly three times the speed of sound, the Nirbhay is a subsonic cruise missile which flies at less than Mach 1. But while the BrahMos has a range of 290 kilometres the Nirbhay will have a range of nearly 1000 kilometres. The longer ranged Nirbhay also has a planned launch weight of around 1,000 kg and it will make use of a terrainfollowing navigation system.

Hemant Rawat

Nirbhay missile test set for 2012

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Control System, and an Integrated Dynamic System. It can cruise at speeds of 250 kmph and modifications have been to the airframe to give the helicopter the agility and speed to make it a stable weapons platform to support infantry on the battlefield. The development of the Rudra is part of the overall modernisation plans for the helicopters in the Indian armed Forces. The induction of 114 light observation helicopters is in the final stages. The Army also set to induct 114 Light Combat Helicopters (LCH) for operations in mountainous terrain. Designed and manufactured by Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd, the LCH made its maiden flight in March 2010. There are also plans to induct a chopper in the 10-20 tonne-class as part of the Indian Multi Role Helicopter programme.

DEFENCE MINISTER AK Antony has said that India was working towards matching the upsurge of Chinese infrastructure along the border to protect the country’s territory. Voicing his apprehension at the increase in Chinese military infrastructure along the border, Antony said: “China is expanding its military capabilities and its infrastructure in the border area is also increasing substantially and we are concerned about that. We have been improving our infrastructure and military capabilities in the eastern sector. We are strengthening our military capability and infrastructure not for confrontation, but to protect our territory and also to build an effective deterrence, so that we can protect every inch of Indian territory.” India has raised two Mountain Divisions to be based on its border with China in the North East and high performance long-range Sukhoi-30 MKI fighters have also been based on airbases there.

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December 2011

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Photo:BRO

COVERSTORY

SECURING

THE NORTH

GARGANTUAN ENDEVOUR: Working on the project has brought many engineering challenges to the fore

One of the biggest challenges of the Border Roads Organisation is the construction of the allweather Rohtang Tunnel that will provide by 2015 an alternative strategic route to Ladakh from Manali in Himachal Pradesh. Apart from connecting the residents living on the border areas of Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir, the worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s longest tunnel at a high altitude will provide the Indian armed forces great leverage in securing the state of Jammu and Kashmir from any possible threats from China and Pakistan. An on-the-spot report by SAURAV JHA www.geopolitics.in

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December 2011

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BRO

Devapriya Roy

GLIMPSES FROM THE PROJECT: (1) One of the entrances to the tunnel, (2) Construction equipment at the site

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December 2011

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“T

Devapriya Roy

HIS APRIL we lost two June and November each year, thereby workers to an avalanche,” effectively shutting off Lahaul and Spiti PK Mahajan, Chief Engifrom the rest of Himachal for a period of neer Project Rohtang six months. The Rohtang Tunnel, which Tunnel (RTP), remarked burrows underneath the Pir Panjal, will grimly. After a few seconds of silence that change this, consisting as it does of an reverberated through his pre-fab office in approach road branching out from the Solang Valley, Manali, I asked if there had existing Manali-Leh road at Solang Valley been any casualties in the tunnel itself. in Manali to its South Portal (SP at an ele“Not this year, no” came the reply. Here at vation of 3,060 metres) and then another RTP headquarters of the Border Roads approach road emerging from its North Organisation (BRO) to witness first-hand Portal (NP at an elevation of 3,071 the state of one of India’s foremost stratemetres) to rejoin the Manali-Leh highgic construction projects, I start getting a way as it heads towards Keylong at a feel of just how dangerous and difficult place called Sissu in Lahaul valley along the execution of such projects usually is. the Chandra river. But executed it has to be — since the The tunnel itself is of a bi-directional 8.82-km long Rohtang Tunnel that seeks horseshoe type. With a carriageway of to provide all weather connectivity to 10.5 metres (plus a one-metre footpath Lahaul and Spiti district in Himachal on either side) and vertical clearance of Pradesh and thereby Ladakh — is very lit5.525 metres it will be large enough to erally India’s best bet for securing its accommodate two semi-trailers side-bynorthern frontier with China. side. Once complete, it is expected to The Rohtang Tunnel is being built to allow vehicles to move at a speed of up to offer an alternative alignment on the 80 km/hour in the tunnel and the total 429-km-long Manali-Leh general staff traffic estimated will be around 1300 road. As of today, one has to cross the vehicles in all traversing either direction Rohtang Pass at an elevation of 13,050 each day. In all, the Rohtang Tunnel will feet to reach the Lahaul Valley onwards shave of 46 km of travel distance between to Ladakh. But herein lies the rub — the Manali and Leh which corresponds to a Rohtang Pass stays open only between saving of almost three hours in terms of LEADING THE WAY: Chief Engineer PK Mahajan in his office

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travel time. Provided, of course, that the tunnel is completed on schedule by its targeted date of mid-2015. “At the moment I am happy with the progress we are making,” said Mahajan. “As of date, SP heading of 1,645 metres and benching on both sides of 407 metres is done while the corresponding figures for NP are 590 metres and 80 metres, respectively”, he added. Now while this translates to 4.65 metres of progress per day if we consider the inaugural blast to have taken place on June 30, 2010, it is quite fair given the fact that the tunnel boring machines (TBM) are not being used and in the initial stages a cumulative effect has to be overcome. In fact, at the time of writing, some good rock strata had been encountered and progress was apparently exceeding 15 metres a day. The lead contractor executing RTP for BRO is the joint venture (JV) between Austrian major STRABAG and India’s AFCONS with 60 per cent stake held by the former. Their JV emerged as the lowest bidder amongst some eightnine others who had met the basic benchmarks. Mahajan is himself a major votary of the new Austrian tunneling method (NATM), which is being used for excavating the Rohtang Tunnel. This process essentially involves the use of jumbo rock drills consisting of one-three arms coupled with sequential blasting followed by a mucking process using tipper trucks. NATM was chosen for this project based on the rather indifferent record of using TBMs in young-fold mountains like the Himalayas. On the other hand NATM, according to Mahajan, provides “the much-needed flexibility in the event of geological surprises that may range from finding gushing water, to hitting soil strata, to encountering methane deposits or even hot springs”. Be that as it may, the genesis of the RTP can actually be traced all the way back to 1974 when the then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi first mooted its construction. But alacrity not being the greatest virtue of the Indian state, it was only in 2002 when the Vajpayee government took up the proposal with some earnestness after the Kargil conflict had made it abundantly clear that an alternative all-weather alignment to the Srinagar-Leh highway was the need of the hour if India had to maintain its position in Siachen in particular and Ladakh in general. December 2011

Lt. Col Vinod Shukla

COVERSTORY

INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGIES: The project involves new techniques like the Austrian-tunneling method to blast through tonnes of rock

However, a change of guard in Delhi the very next year and a forward movement in relations with China in the 200507 period meant that no physical work on the tunnel itself really happened for most of the second half of the last decade either, even though the environmental impact assessment (EIA) was ready by 2005-06 and in 2007, SMEC was made the lead consultant for the project with the responsibility of profiling the rock structure. It took till 2010, for the actual construction process to get underway when the foundation stone for the project was laid with much fanfare by United Progressive Alliance chairperson Sonia Gandhi. Of course, the government could always say that it was moving forward on preparing the detailed project report and selecting bidders in the prior period. Nevertheless, it does seem that Chinese activities and indeed assertiveness in the past few years shook up Delhi sufficiently for it to take up the project seriously. It realised that a head-in-the-sand approach to China’s massive build-up of infrastructure right across on the Tibetan

plateau would not cut it anymore. While India may have done much to fortify Tawang in the Eastern sector it seems that the Chinese have now turned their gaze on Ladakh in the Western sector and this is where an increasing number of intrusions are taking place. In fact, beyond the intrusions that make such great media headlines, the Chinese are also bringing in nomads from the interior and settling them in military-styled barracks in Aksai Chin. While in the immediate term, the nomads are being used by Beijing to justify building permanent structures ever closer to the unsettled border with India, in the future the artificially-managed presence of the nomads could even be used to suggest that the area is one of “settled populations”. It may be noted that one of the guiding principles of the India-China border talks is that “settled populations are not to be disturbed”, something that the Chinese are spectacularly disregarding by reiterating their claims to Tawang. Nevertheless, given Beijing’s propensity for selective amnesia as evidenced over the years, there is a

likelihood that they could suddenly point out this principle to avoid making concessions in Aksai Chin. Indeed there is every indication that the Chinese want to hold on to the territory they captured from India in 1962 and earlier hints by some quarters in India that “we would give some, we could get some” is probably a wishful thinking. Beijing only wants to “get some”, not give. On the Indian side, there is a realisation that the Lahaul and Spiti valleys and Ladakh in general, need to be developed as well. The first step to that is to ensure that the population of the place is not literally and metaphorically cut off from the rest of India for large parts of the year. After all, given that China is now extending connectivity right up to the last point on its side, it is imperative that the Indian state makes the people of these border regions feel wanted. Left unsaid is the fact that in this globalised age, the best way to secure an area is to ensure the loyalty of the people of the region through building sustainable socio-economic linkages. “More than 40,000 people in Lahaul (continued on page 49)

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December 2011

BRO

COVERSTORY

â&#x20AC;&#x153;WE ARE BEST IN EXTREME CONDITIONSâ&#x20AC;? The Border Roads Organisation is believed to be a multifaceted, transnational and modern construction outfit committed to meeting the strategic needs of the armed forces through cost-effective development and sustenance of the infrastructure. The BRO Director General, LT. GENERAL S RAVI SHANKAR tells SAURAV JHA in an exclusive interview why the BRO is a proud organisation and how, in its 51 years of service, it has undertaken many challenges in inhospitable and far-flung border areas and contributed towards national integration www.geopolitics.in

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December 2011

g COVERSTORY quake goes some way in belying such reports? Well, our response to the tragedy has won BRO kudos from various quarters. Even the CM and Governor of Sikkim were pleasantly surprised by our response during the crisis. And you would note that they had been wanting more from the BRO not so long ago. Nevertheless, BRO certainly proved in Sikkim the level of competence it brings in a crisis situation. Does that mean we are satisfied? No, one cannot rest on past laurels and must keep moving on. People need to realise that the margin for error in the kind of places BRO works, is very slim, and one cannot endanger the lives of personnel by pushing them beyond a reason. Do you think environmental concerns are playing a part in delaying the progress? Environmental considerations are certainly playing a role in determining the pace of projects. There are instances where BRO has laid the groundwork but is unable to proceed because forest clearances are pending. But this is not to suggest for a second that the Environment Ministry is not hastening up matters. The nature of the issue precludes the possibility that matters can be resolved quickly. There are genuine concerns that need to be allayed before consensus can be achieved. And consensus requires time. How is BRO placed equipment wise? In terms of quality, perhaps?

BRO

RECORD-BREAKING PROJECT: Upon its completion, the Rohtang Project will be one of the world’s longest tunnels at such a high altitude

There have been reports that BRO’s progress on certain border roads is not progressing as per schedule. How would you respond to this? I would prefer not to comment on a story based on half truths without an understanding of the larger picture. In STELLAR LEADERSHIP: Lt General S Ravi Shankar has the unenviable task of leading the mission

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any case, the BRO cannot be judged on instances in any one project or the condition of a couple of roads. Most of the projects are in high mountains — working in areas where few dare to work and under extremely challenging conditions. You will appreciate there are a number of factors that slow these projects ranging from the usual land acquisition and environmental clearance problems to extreme work conditions and even natural calamities. You need to realise as the BRO moves closer to the border, the conditions grow even more challenging in higher reaches. Would you then say that your recent role in relief operations in Sikkim post-earth-

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You would be happy to know that we brought in `200 crore worth of new equipment last year and are slated to tender `300 crore this year. I can certainly attest to the fact that BRO’s equipment holdings have seen excellent improvement in the recent past. For instance, we have moved from a predominance of dozers to more excavators. You must have also seen the state-of-the-art equipment in place for the Rohtang Tunnel Project. What is the status of the Zaranj Delaram road? The road was completed ahead of schedule and is operational. In fact, it is working wonderfully and can be considered a huge success story for BRO. The whole world felt that we would not be allowed to do it given the hostile conditions, but we did it, and now this project is there, as an example, for all to see how the BRO is at its best under extreme conditions. December 2011

Devapriya Roy

COVERSTORY

HIGH-RISK MISSION: High altitudes and the remote location have made this project an extremely hazardous endeavour

Would you then consider the Zaranj Delaram road your biggest success? The bigger story really lies in all those things that people take for granted. There are many border states in our country and even Bhutan where growth actually started with the activities of BRO! For instance, people in Bhutan still talk about the success of Project Dantak, which for long has been considered India’s best ambassador in that country. This is true for every state along our Northern and Eastern borders. Given that as it may, does BRO then find it easier than other agencies to operate in places like Jammu and Kashmir? (Smiles) The BRO is accepted as a part of the ‘avaam’ in J&K. We have no problems in operating in J&K. People see us as one of them. In fact, locals often worry as to what would happen when the BRO moves out of an area and hands the area over to someone else. Recently, the Forest Minister in the state was quoted as saying: “The BRO gives us good roads, jobs and good compensation for our land. In fact, they give us more than they take.” Yet, addressing people’s aspirations remains the www.geopolitics.in

biggest challenge for us, as they always want more and faster still. Would access to greater heli-lift capacity benefit BRO? If yes, then are you looking at civilian operators for this? To answer your second question first, we are indeed considering all options to augment the number of heli-lifts that we can secure. In the mountains you can attack a new road normally from one end unlike the plains where you can tackle a road at a number of points applying more resources. Heli-lift helps us carry equipment in dismantled state to points otherwise not accessible where we assemble it and create more attack points. These men and machines are maintained logistically by heli-lift thereafter till they connect with the main effort. So it helps speed up work but is a daring, technicallychallenging — and an expensive option. Do you think the structure of BRO needs to undergo a change as some quarters have recently suggested? I think BRO’s current structure has some inherent strengths. The fact that we are made up of two cadres (i.e. Army and

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General Reserve Engineer Force) puts us in a unique situation where we can draw upon people with differing backgrounds to approach a certain task. One may have greater area knowledge in planning and administration under adverse conditions, while the other may be more experienced in core engineering skills. These varied strengths fuse together to give us the optimal mix that we need. There is also an operational role for the BRO where the mix is essential. You saw the synergy in Sikkim recently — they add up to more than the whole. Should the Rohtang Tunnel Project be declared a project of strategic importance? When is it likely to be ready? It certainly would help the project against misguided union activity. But when and if it will be, is a decision that has to be taken by the government. Even then, the Rohtang Tunnel Project is well under way and if we keep finding the kind of hard rock that we have hit recently, I think the project will be ready by December 2014. If both faces of tunnel are considered, we are now progressing almost at14-16 meters a day on an average basis. December 2011

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BRO IN NORTH EAST

BRO

ORTH EAST of India is one of the least connected the troops deployed there are air maintained. The nearest regions of India. The geography of the region makes roadhead to tawang is Balipara and Charduar, the road conroad construction a very daunting task. The pressure of nectivity of these to tawang is still year behind the schedule. Chinese infrastructure across the border has forced India to The defence of LAC is being beefed up through raising of construct roads and other infrastructure all across north east at two mountain division and possibly one mountain strike corp priority. may come up in near future. These new division would require India is constructing 73 strategic roads on its border along reliable, all weather, mountain roads to defend LAC. Orangchina and Pakistan. Out of this 15 roads have got completed, 39 Kalakathang-Shergaon -Rupa-Tenga and Shergaon-BJ Gompaare due for completion by 2013 and rest will be done by 2016. Teli-Tawang, critical towards this end, is running behind Arunachal Pradesh, the most strategically located state in schedule. north east bordering Tibet has 27 strategic road projects in The task of road construction in AP is much difficult in comnorth east. Road construction is a daunting challenge in AP parison to Tibet due the steep mountains and heavy snow fall. due to the mountainous terrain and the weather. The weather The Tibet plateau provides solid base for road construction. permits only five The rains and landmonths of road slide makes road construction. The construction possirest of seven ble for only four to months road confive months. These struction is not problems are not possible due to faced by Chinese. heavy monsoon In 1999 BRO and snow fall. began working on One of the major construction of hurdles in road operationally sigconstruction is the nificant roads in inaccessibility of remote areas of AP the project sites under the project and ferrying of VARTAK. The projheavy equipments. ect was launched in The Indian air 1960 as project forces was providTusker, which was ing the much renamed to VARrequired air lifting TAK in 1963. The of equipments but project was operadue to unavailabilitional in state of ty of heavy transAssam and AP. This port helicopters PATH-BREAKING EFFORT: The BRO has been at the forefront of many road project has conand also due to construction projects in the north east structed 2776 km of other operational roads, 150 km of requirements, the Pawan Hans, has been roped to provide bridges and many important buildings. At present the project much needed air lift to BRO. is constructing 1690 km of roads and maintaining 2134 km of Indian strategic road projects in both Ladakh and AP lag roads. The bridge construction began in 1972. Till date four behind their schedule. In contrast to this the Chinese have Bailey suspension bridges of 400 ft length and 340 equipment constructed 50, 000 km of roads in Tibet plateau along Line of bridges have been constructed. At present the project manactual control. The Indian defence ministry is alarmed by this. ages works of around 120 cr a year. One of the reasons for delay is the much needed environment The BRO is withdrawing from many parts of north east to clearance. construct roads on Tibet border, which is priority at present. Tawang, one of the most strategically sensitive places in Withdrawal is affecting the road construction and widening of North east is still not well connected with the road network and national highway.

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and Spiti district will benefit directly from this project,” remarked Mahajan. “In fact, people in other parts of Himachal are benefiting from this too, given that 70 per cent of the workers employed on this project have been www.geopolitics.in

drawn from the state,” he added. In this context, I asked if sufficient skilled labour was available for the project and got the reply that this was indeed the case and that the STRABAG-AFCONS JV had recruited heavily from workers with

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a background in the Delhi Metro project. The use of local workers probably ensures that there are fewer acclimatisation issues that can make a difference given the very thin margin for error at these altitudes. After all, there are no less December 2011

g COVERSTORY

BRO’S AERIAL CRANES

DEDICATED AIRLIFT: PHHL services enable the BRO to fulfill tasks like constructing remote roads in far-flung areas with difficult topography and climate in the North East

Pawan Hans to the rescue The Border Roads Organisation (BRO) has partnered with Pawan Hans Helicopters Limited (PHHL) to help in the exemplary task of constructing roads in the far-flung regions of the country especially in the North East. Pawan Hans’ choppers are especially useful while airlifting outsized cargo to remote regions of the country where there are no motorable roads. A Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was signed between PHHL and BRO for providing air support services in August than 18 major avalanche-prone points on the two approach roads that required mandatory avalanche control structures. Thirteen of these lay on the SP side (referred to as MSP-1 through 13) and five on the NP side (referred to as MNP-1 through 5). While formation zone (i.e. right at the crest of a ridge where an avalanche is likely to form) structures would be necessary for more than ten of the sites, BRO www.geopolitics.in

2010. To fulfill the commitment assigned, PHHL made all out efforts, like providing a Mi-172 helicopter (under wet lease arrangement) to the BRO. The helicopter was stationed at Itanagar in Arunachal Pradesh. Dedicated helicopter services were provided in the far-flung areas of Arunachal Pradesh for transport of rations, manpower, fuel and lubricants, construction materials, machinery such a bulldozers, road rollers, etc. Heavy machinery like dozers etc were carried with underslung operations. using technology developed by DRDO, was also building middle and run-off zone avalanche control structures for some of the sites, and these would be shown on the way to SP. Concluding the initial briefing in the Chief Engineer’s office Devapriya (the photographer for this excursion) and I set off with Lt Colonel Shukla and Executive Engineer Jhangade for SP along the approach road. After passing six of the

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danger points, we reached MSP-7 where a major middle-zone-structure was under construction. The snow gallery for MSP-7, an avalanche control structure that shields the road by letting the avalanche pass overhead and lets the condensed water drain channels, had been designed by DRDO’s Snow and Avalanche Safety Establishment (SASE) headquartered in Chandigarh. A little while ahead lay MSP-10 where a new diversion structure was under construction. This was, of course, a run-off zone endeavour and sought to literally divert the descending snow in a direction that would render it nonthreatening to a bailey bridge that would otherwise have been in its path. Passing the machine workshop for SP on the way (which we were to be shown on the way back) and an SASE facility, we finally reached the hallowed place rather late in the afternoon. A slight haze mixed with cloud cover produced a strange pastel effect in the Pir Panjal. SP was clearly abuzz with activity as one could see tipper trucks looking to enter or leave the portal. Our site guide for the tour of the excavated section turned out to be no less than the project head from the STRABAG-AFCONS side, Dr Rosenfeld, a geologist by training. Driving into the tunnel with Rosenfeld at the wheel, one got a sense of just how much work had to be done for a project of this magnitude. Makeshift lighting illuminated the walls of the tunnel which seemed reasonably evened out for a process that essentially involved drilling and blasting. The basic ventilation system seemed to be working well and the level of dust in the tunnel was lower than what one would expect given that a scheduled blast had taken place not too long ago. About hundred metres from where the tunnel face was, we disembarked and waded through the slush only just sensing drips of water falling on our hard hats from overhead. As we neared the tunnel face, I was witness to large excavators roaring toand- fro from it for a short distance, picking up the debris or muck left by the recent explosion. A tipper truck was simultaneously gathering the muck from one of the piles created by the excavators. “Once we have the overhead crane system in place, the process will be speeded up greatly. Since the tipper December 2011

BRO

COVERSTORY

HEAVY MACHINERY: The endeavour involves the use of specialised equipment brought in from the plains

trucks will have to enter a far shorter distance into the tunnel during the mucking process,” Rosenfeld explained. I nodded in agreement and asked how much debris had been excavated in volume terms as of then. “About 16,00,000 cubic metres,” replied Shukla. “We hope that about 30 per cent of that will be recoverable.” Rosenfeld then motioned the excavators to stop, which they did in growling mode, one lined behind the other with lights blazing. Turning to the face he said, “We encountered a crumbling rock in the initial days but now I am happy with what I am seeing,” and passed a hand over the face for good measure. “Are fossils likely to be found here?” asked Devapriya. “No I don’t think so. There is no gneiss that I see. In fact I’ll wager that we won’t find any,” was Rosenfeld’s reply. www.geopolitics.in

KARGIL CONFLICT MADE IT CLEAR THAT AN ALTERNATIVE TO THE SRINAGARLEH HIGHWAY WAS ESSENTIAL “But what are some of the other wagers going on then?” I asked in jest. Shukla replied this time that many workers are firmly holding on to the belief that something of a precious nature may yet turn up. We all laughed, a little. On our descent from SP, we stopped at

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the machine workshop for this end of the project. The entire place was lined with precast concrete sections of varying sizes. The largest ones I was told were for the “egress tunnel” that will run below the main carriageway. Smaller sections were for other minor tunnels running alongside the egress tunnel. Some of these smaller sections already seemed on their way to SP. “We have a state-of-the-art batching plant here,” mused Shukla. “In this project quality and safety are the keys which is why we have brought in a lot of equipment from overseas that operate at much greater tolerances and are designed for extreme accuracy.” I observed that given the climatic conditions a lot of equipment designed for the European Alps wouldn’t really be out of place here, unlike a lot of western equipment, which December 2011

Devapriya Roy

COVERSTORY

INNOVATING TO CONQUER: Pre-cast sections at the machine workshop for South Portal

simply break down in the heat and dust of India. Shukla nodded in approval. “Please enter,” Jhangade indicated towards a facility which said “Quality Control Lab” (QLC). The QLC at the machine workshop had extensive facilities for physical testing of sand, stone and concrete. Chemical analysis was, however, being done in four independent laboratories located around the country. After a few demonstrations of some of the processes, it was mutually decided to call it a day. We started off at first light the next morning for what promised to be a long drive to-and-fro from NP of the Rohtang Tunnel. The sights were expectedly spectacular as we drove up the Manali-Leh road steadily ascending towards the Rohtang Pass that lay above. The road, however, at times provided a very different spectacle. While excellently surfaced for stretches closer to Solang Valley, as we got closer to Rohtang top, the road turned into a layering of rocks and slush in the main. Work was clearly underway -- though on two-laning this strategic pathway as we saw members of various BRO task forces labouring at various altitudes. Once at Rohtang top, we were witness to a large undulating space covering thick morning snow with a stupa marking the veritable gap in the mountains. The road quality here was quite good but deteriorated rapidly as we began our descent to the Lahaul Valley. Reaching the valley, we followed the www.geopolitics.in

crystal blue Chandra River to first reach the machine workshop for NP. “That heap you see over there resting on the river bed is what used to be a service building,” Jhangade said dryly. “It got blown away when an avalanche came over what we call MNP-4,” and with that he pointed towards an odious mountain top. “Formation zone structure?” I asked simply. “Absolutely,” was Jhangade’s reply as he beckoned us towards our chief quarry.

CHINESE ACTIVITIES IN THE PAST FEW YEARS SHOOK UP DELHI TO TAKE UP THE PROJECT SERIOUSLY NP stood out as this gaping darkness in a sea of light. Oddly enough though, there wasn’t much activity at the site when I arrived there. As I learnt a little while later from a couple of junior engineers employed by the JV, there was a flash strike on at the site. Not a particularly auspicious moment for a media visit, but nevertheless it served to bring into focus how even projects of vital strategic

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importance are not insulated from the vagaries of labour unions. “It is much chillier here, even though this is only five metres higher than SP,” remarked Jhangade. I nodded in approval and excused myself from entering further into the tunnel since I had picked a horrible cold overnight. On the way back, I couldn’t help wondering that the journey to NP was instructive in itself. Since it brought to light just what kind of gains would accrue to a traveller once the Rohtang Tunnel was ready in terms of fatigue avoidance and time-saving. Moreover there is a proposal to build a 4.5-km tunnel under Shinku La, which would further reduce the travel time between Manalj and Leh by another 5-6 hours. The NP travel experience also makes it rather easy to voice your support for this project as well. Back from the rather tiring journey to NP, I once again found myself in the Chief Engineer’s office the next morning and promptly asked him about the strike the other day. “Yes there was some sort of issue yesterday,” he admitted. “But it is being resolved,” he pointed out cheerily. “But don’t you think a project of this sort should not have to deal with typical labour-related problems?” I ventured. “Ideally yes, but this being India nothing can be said for sure,” he observed. I then asked whether declaring RTP a strategic project would help. Mahajan replied in the affirmative and said his fingers were crossed on that one. As are mine. December 2011

geopolitics

INTERNAL SECURITY

Hemant Rawat

URBAN SECURITY Indian cities are likely to be targeted more and more by terrorists and Maoists

B R I E F S

omnifuzz.in

3G security dilemma

www.geopolitics.in

Aadhaar flaws

Interceptor for DP

THE INCLUSION of unverified residents and the creation of false profiles in the Aadhaar project may compromise internal security, says Home Minister (HM) P Chidambaram. The HM has put across deep reservations about the problem of unconfirmed information in the list that is being put together by the Unique Identification Authority of India. He also called attention to the fact that the efforts in collection of the data may be leading to unnecessary expenditure and duplication of the efforts of the Registrar General of India (RGI) which gathers similar information for enrolment. According to a dispatch that Home Minister Chidambaram sent to Montek Singh Ahluwalia, the Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission, the National Population Register is being collated by the Registrar General of India by pilot trial consultations with state governments and an empowered group of ministers.

THE CAPITAL’S cops will soon obtain an internet monitoring system capable of probing the web content on the computers of the city’s citizens. With this system the Delhi Police will not have to rely on the internet service p r ov i d e r s to probe user’s internet behaviour with the help of a parallel tapping mechanism. The system will be capable of screening a potential suspect’s emails and chats and tapping into the content from even users who access the internet through mobile phones. Parameters like email IDs, IP addresses and keywords can be used to scan and target individuals by the new surveillance system to intercept internet communication. The new intercept system will involve the setting up of a central monitoring centre and two nodal centres. All the major internet service providers will be connected to the monitoring centres. The system will be run and maintained by the Delhi Police which has also issued a worldwide tender for the same.

The terror industry of Kashmir A REPORT by the Belgian thinktank Association for Solidarity says that “bandits and criminals” have been committing heinous crimes in the militancy-hit region of Jammu and Kashmir and blaming the security forces for their offenses. According to the organisation, the bandits have been indulging in crimes like rape, murder, and the using mafia practices to extort money. According to the think tank, “They are committing the crimes under the cover of ‘the movement’. For them this is a lucrative industry and under the present circumstances, it is easy to blame the security forces for all crimes that are committed.” A team from the think-tank met a crosssection of the people including pro-Pakistan Syed Ali Shah Geelani and moderate leaders including Bilal Lone and Abdul Gani Bhat. They even met with politicians from the mainstream political parties during their visit to the state this summer. The think tank blamed the leaders of the separatist movement on Kashmir for turning a blind eye to the human rights abuses being perpetrated

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by the terrorists. The report also said that both the security forces and the militants were committing human rights violations and it was possible that not all the violations were being reported and even those that were reported were not disclosed or prosecuted.

ticklethewire.com

THE TELECOM Ministry has reacted with unease about the practice of several telecom companies using an “illegal” intra-agreement to share 3G spectrum. According to the Telecom Ministry, this illegal sharing has “far-reaching security implications”. All “roaming arrangements” are meant for “short-term movement/roaming”, according to an internal note prepared by the telecom ministry. But instead of this, the telecom companies which successfully obtained the 3G license sublet a part of their allocated spectrum by signing roaming agreements. With agreements such as these, a number of telecom companies which had not got licenses have started providing 3G services. This has resulted in a huge loss of revenue to the exchequer because of the subversion of the whole bidding process. But this sharing has other ramifications as well. Security agencies and intelligence units who have to tap phones with a system called LIMS (Legal Interception, Monitoring and Surveillance) to prevent a crime or gather intelligence face hurdles because of this. Potentially fatal delays can be caused as the security agencies probe a person who is on roaming because the sleuths have to first get access from the agencies of the state. Only then can information be provided to them from the service provider in the specific state.

m edecision4u.co

INTERNAL SECURITY

December 2011

B R I E F S IS

ISRO to help CRPF

THERE COULD soon be a change of guard on India’s northeast states on the border with Myanmar. The 1640 km-long border with Myanmar is guarded by the Assam Rifles right now, but plans are afoot to hand over the guarding duty to the Border Security Force (BSF). The plan to assign the border guarding duty to the BSF is doing the rounds with the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS). This follows a proposal from the BSF to take control of the border. The BSF plans to raise a headquarters of Additional Director General, four frontier headquarters to be headed by an IG-rank official, 12 sector headquarters to be headed by DIG-level officials for the new role. The arrangements will also involve the raising of 45 new battalions. Though it is a border-guarding force, the BSF is also involved in anti-Naxal operations in different parts of the country besides guarding the Indo-Bangla and the Indo-Pak borders.

THE CENTRAL Reserve Police Force (CRPF) is reportedly seeking the help of the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) in the fight against the Communist Party of IndiaMaoist (CPI-Maoist). Laptops featuring the Geographic Information System (GIS) have been issued to security forces in Naxal-hit zones. The GIS data of these left-wing extremist-affected regions will help the work of both officials and the security forces. The Department of Science and Technology (DST) has sold 65 GIS mobile work stations to the CRPF for units deployed in the Maoist-affected areas. Terrain maps of the region will now be available with the company commanders now and these will help the troops on the ground by indentifying sites that are prone to ambushes. The information can also be used to plan escape routes for troops stuck in a Maoist ambush and for setting up ambushes against the extremists.

Notice to Mumbai cops

acus.org

Suyogaerospace

BSF for Myanmar border?

INTERNAL SECURITY

Dogs trained to hit terror hideouts by ITBP

PIB

ACCORDING TO a report in indiatoday.in, a proposal by the Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) to use dogs to attack terrorist targets has invited the wrath of animal rights activists. The ITBP plans to train the dogs to plant explosive charges near the hideouts of terrorists. According to ITBP officials, the dogs would be protected during the attacks as the weapon would only be detonated after the dog has returned to the handler. The ITBP has even trained the dogs to return to the hideouts to recover the weapons of the ultras. The ITBP has gained extensive experience with dogs as they are also used to find victims of avalanches. The force has used the canines in disaster management operations and even www.geopolitics.in

trained dogs for police forces of various states. If implemented, the plan would be the first to use dogs in counter-terror operations. Even the Indian Army does not use canines for such operations. But the idea of putting the dogs in harm’s way has drawn the ire of the animal rights activists with the Animal Welfare Board getting into fray. Major General Dr R M Kharb, the chairman of the Animal Welfare Board, which is a statutory body under the Ministry of Environment, called the idea ‘weird’ and said it made no sense. Even Member of Parliament Maneka Gandhi, the head of People for Animals, lambasted the paramilitary force and called the idea ridiculous.

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WELL IT’S not just the organisers of the Indian Premier League (IPL), even the police guarding the cricket extravaganza made a financial windfall at the games — by providing guard duty at the venues. According to the estimates of the service tax department, the Mumbai police earned `850 crore during the IPL and other cricket matches. The service tax department has now served a notice to the Mumbai Police for the profits earned by offering services to private parties, including organisers of the IPL and other cricket matches. Even security organisations like the Central Industrial Security Force (CISF) and Central Reserve Police Force pay service tax on the services they offer to private commercial organisations. But the Mumbai Police has not even got itself registered with the service tax department in spite of repeated reminders. According to rules, security services are subject to service tax and providers need to collect service tax from users and pay it to the service tax department. December 2011

g GEOPOLITICS INTERNALSECURITY

Hemant Rawat

WHEN THE

ARMED FORCES POLICE

If the armed forces cannot do anything on their own and need civilian clearance during their operations, how will their effectiveness different from that of the normal police and paramilitary forces? AJAY K MEHRA discusses the question in the context of the vexed AFSPA www.geopolitics.in

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December 2011

g INTERNALSECURITY helped, saying that it could just be a lull. The move has elicited a mixed responses also from the Union Government, the local populace, the local politicians, the national opposition, the media, the Human Rights lobby, and many others, bringing the existentialist approach of the state, operational needs of the armed forces in a violent rebellious situation and human rights, battered psyche and abnormal living conditions of the local population.

AFSPA HAS BEEN UNDER FIRE IN THE NORTH-EASTERN STATES AND KASHMIR

EAGLE EYE: Tourists enjoying on the banks of Dal lake under the watchful eyes of a soldier

HE ARMED FORCES Special Powers Act (AFSPA) has once again come in for a sharp focus; this time in the context of the trouble-torn Jammu and Kashmir ( J&K). J&K Chief Minister Omar Abdullah is recommending that the AFSPA be withdrawn from some peaceful areas in the state. He is staking his claim on some media surveys that J&K has witnessed a quiet summer compared last year and is a more peaceful state than many others. He reportedly has a nod from Union Home Minister P Chidambaram. The Army has opposed any such move attributing the quiet to their effort in which the Act too has www.geopolitics.in

Meant for a limited period Notably, the Act has been under fire in the context of the North Eastern States, where it was first applied in 1958 to deal with the Naga insurgents and later to other areas and States where secessionist politics aided by insurgency and/or terrorism grew. Though applied only for a limited period, it has continued to date, creating a half a century long history of such an application of an ‘extraordinary’ law, which is obviously ‘harsh’ in giving the armed forces, which are trained to battle and combat hostile alien powers in situations where the rule of law of domestic kind is not relevant, to a hostile interface with the local citizens — ‘own countrymen’, some of whom are rebellious, others are haplessly and helplessly in collateral zone; trusted by neither side. The case of Thangjam Manorama Devi, arrested by Assam Rifles on July 9, 2004, for alleged insurgent links and dumped a day later tortured, bruised, raped and killed, led to a protest on July 15, 2004, in front of Assam Rifles by women naked to the last, urging Indian forces to rape them, brought out what such situations can lead to. Irom Sharmila has been on fast in Imphal since 2000 protesting against the AFSPA and pleading for its repeal. She is since being force-fed on fluids and drips by the government to keep her

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alive. Obviously, collateral zone, always rough in such violent and defiant situations, is extremely harsh in this case. And, though the AFSPA is not the reason, certainly the most important legitimising tool for the state violence, which invariably spills over to civic life. The Kashmir valley, simmering for a while with unease over political mismanagement from New Delhi, erupted on 8 December 1989, when the then Union Home Minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed’s (later he was Chief Minister of the state from November 2002 to 2005) daughter Dr Rubaiya Sayeed was kidnapped by extremists. When the Government of India bowed and obtained her release in exchange for militants JKLF ‘area commander’ Sheikh Abdul Hameed, Ghulam Nabi Butt, younger brother of the late Maqbool Butt; Noor Muhammad Kalwal; Muhammed Altaf; and Javed Ahmed Zargar (a Pakistani citizen), the valley slipped into the hands of the militants. The cycle of violence continues to date. This is when the AFSPA was promulgated in the state through a parliamentary legislation in September 1990. As in the context of some of the glaring cases of Manipur, there have been complaints galore of human rights violation — torture, custodial death, rape, mass murder, indiscriminate shooting, and so on. Naturally, voices for lifting this ‘inhuman’ legislation have increased in the valley. In both the cases, the Army has opposed doing away with the legislation, arguing that it is a significant legal tool of its operation in these areas. They have asserted that each complaint of any misdemeanour and legal transgression by any member of the security force is taken seriously by them and several members of the force have been punished. They also claim several initiatives taken to earn the people’s trust in the troubled areas. Thus, they have added to the debate after the J&K Chief Minister’s call for scaling down of the Act by lifting it from certain peaceful areas by opposing this suggestion, adding that the peace is due to this instrument in their bag. The Legislation There are two legislations named The Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act in The Gazette of India — one passed in 1958 for Assam (unified) and Manipur, December 2011

g INTERNALSECURITY

www.geopolitics.in

THE J&K ISSUE IS A COMPLEX ONE THAT COMPRISES A DECOLONISATION LEGACY with the district administration and not as an independent body’ and that ‘armed forces could work in harmony when they deployed in disturbed area.’ An interrogation of the AFSPA raises two sets of questions - from the people’s perspective and from the state’s perspective. From the perspective of the people,

the most important question is that just because the state is facing an armed challenge, should the security forces be allowed to trample upon human rights of the people. From the perspective of the state, a challenge to its sovereignty and integrity from armed rebellion and terrorism presents an unusual, abnormal and complex situation of violent threat that needs special ways to tackle it. An armed threat is not easy to be dealt with by the police. Deployment of the Army and other such armed forces within the territory of India has both legal and humanitarian implications, which obviously has arisen in the Indian case. The AFSPA is a legal solution to the authorisation that the armed forces need for internal security related policing functions, for constitutionally they are not empowered for public order duties. This brings in the questions of transparency and accountability.

PROTESTING THE GUNS: The existence of the Army in the North-East has been the cause of widespread resentment

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modified in 1960, 1970, 1972 and 1986 in order to extend it to new states of the Northeast and the second passed in 1990 for Jammu and Kashmir. The two do not differ either in content or application to give the Governor of the state concerned the power to declare the state or part of it as disturbed area. Indeed, the Acts take care to insert statutory warning both in terms underlining that the declaration cannot be arbitrary, meaning that the reasons have to substantive and clearly stated. It also cannot be applied indefinitely without any time limit and must be reviewed periodically. The Act is meant ‘to enable certain special power to be conferred upon members of the armed forces in disturbed areas…’. The specially powered armed forces then enable ‘any commissioned officer, warrant officer, noncommissioned officer or any other person of equivalent rank in the armed forces’ (a) fire upon after warning, or use force, even to the causing of death, ‘against any person who is acting in contravention of any law or order … being in force in disturbed area’; (b) ‘destroy any arms dump, … fortified position or shelter …’; (c) ‘arrest, without warrant, any person who has committed a cognizable offence or against whom a reasonable suspicion exists that he has committed or is about to commit a cognizable offence and may use such forces may be necessary to effect the arrest; (d) ‘enter and search without warrant any premises ….’ Among the most significant aspect of the Acts is that ‘no prosecution, suit or legal proceeding shall be instituted, except with the previous sanction of the Central Government, against any person in respect of anything done or purported to be done in exercise of the powers conferred by this Act.’ In Inderjit Barua v. State of Assam case in 1983 the Supreme Court ruled that ‘conferment of power on non-commissioned officers like a Havaldar cannot be said to be bad and unjustified.’ There is a provision for the armed forces that ‘any person arrested under this Act ‘shall be made over to the officer in charge of the nearest police station with the least possible delay, together with a report of the circumstances occasioning the arrest’, yet in Luithukia v. Rishang Keishing (1988) case the judiciary directed that ‘the armed forces must act in cooperation

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December 2011

g INTERNALSECURITY AFSPA: Extraordinary law AFSPA is clearly an extraordinary law for an unusual situation. Since its origin and operation are in the realm of the state, the state perspective dominates. The state’s perception is reactive to atypical state of affairs for which it may or may not be responsible. In Indian case, for example the Naga, Mizo and some other problems in the Northeast have been circumstantial, either inherited in the process of decolonization or developed due to geopolitics of the region. Some problems, for example, in Assam, Manipur, Tripura and Meghalaya are also due to political mishandling of irritating moles that became molehills. The J&K issue is a more complex one. A decolonization legacy that was compounded further by the State’s Dogra ruler Maharaja Hari Singh, Pakistani invasion of 1948, Nehru’s blunder of taking it to the UN Security Council, the big power stakes in the region and post-Independence hamhanded political handling by the Indian state.

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AFSPA IS CLEARLY AN EXTRAORDINARY LAW FOR AN UNUSUAL SITUATION AFSPA is rooted in the paradoxes and dilemmas of a democratic state. While theoretically the people take precedence, operationally the state must protect itself before protecting people. Hence raison d’etate (reason of state) prevails over raison d’les gens (reason of the people). Yet, the state too has to take into account that the laws are made for the people by people’s representatives. If its execution hurts the people it is supposed to protect, both transparency (in security scenario it becomes an ex post facto necessity) and accountability structures are not in place. In such a case, instead of a stout defence the state must introspect and put such mechanisms in place to the satisfaction of people and communities. The defence of the armed forces in complex situations is as obligatory as protection and satisfaction of the people. This also means that the politics of compliance arising out of the current political culture and the politics of defiance arising out of electoral populism are both detrimental to people’s and national interest. Both the Northeast and J&K theatres are witnessing this and an introspective national consensus is required, more particularly because the party in power and political actors my change on the Raisina Hill, the theatres would have to be dealt with people-centric deftness. Allowing a violent state and administrative culture with legal backing to emerge with the logic of militancy is what Paddy Hillyard has described as ‘violence of jurisprudence’, which is likely to leave a scar on societal psyche. Needless to say that trust deficit on both fronts deserves immediate attention. Reducing it just to a militancy driven phenomenon is harming both the interests. After all neither Sharmila, nor Manorama and ‘naked’ protest by women on her rape and murder, not even other

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scores of protests in Manipur, are flashes in the pan. Each one of them arises out of deep discontent with a violent day to day life. Similarly, in J&K issues keep arising every day and popular anger is widespread. The exposé on Chhattisinghpora massacre, on mass graves, on rapes and so on cannot be casually dismissed as collateral damages. The popular perspective on a secure (even from the armed forces) life, a transparent and accountable mechanism of security and a respect for their rights cannot be wished away by any government and these must be factored in to articulate a coherent security policy. By Way of a Conclusion In putting the discourse in constitutional perspective, I would like to draw the attention of the discerning citizens to the Constituent Assembly debate on articles 21 and 22. In formulating that ‘No person shall be deprived of his life or personal liberty except according to procedure established by law’, considerable debate on ‘procedure established by law’ brings out the apprehension of the framers to abuse and they wanted a more rigid ‘due process of law’. Dr. Ambedkar persuaded the Assembly to his formulation, but returned a few months later with a new provision that became Article 22, providing greater protection against arrests and other police powers of the state than given in Article 20. In formulating this he brought in two clauses of Criminal Procedure Code into the Constitution, giving greater rights to citizens against arrests and detentions. No law, not even AFSPA, under any circumstances should contravene any of the three. The Supreme Court’s guidelines in ‘Disturbed Areas’ for greater transparency in arrests reflects a respect for Articles 21 and 22. Given grave exigencies, if AFSPA or any other law has to stay, it must, but not at the cost of personal liberty made sacrosanct by the Constitution. In order to do away with violence of jurisprudence, strong accountability structures must be built into them. Let us also remember, in this whole scheme of things, the police are lurking in the background and have to do a lot of scavenging. Any situation, normal or abnormal, needs a good police. It is sad that India is still not moving towards it!!! (The author is Honorary Director, Centre for Public Affairs, Noida) December 2011

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INTERNALSECURITY

Wikimedia/Jrapczak

CITIES UNDER

SIEGE T HE INCREASING significance of cities hardly needs to be emphasised. According to the United Nations Population Fund, the urban-dwelling population will swell to nearly 5 billion by 2030. Today, the world population stands at 7 www.geopolitics.in

India has 25 of the 100 fastest-growing cities in the world. About 10 per cent of India’s population lives in cities. It is in this scenario that UDDIPAN MUKHERJEE discusses the threat perception in our cities from two angles: from across the border and the Maoists

billion with half of that living in cities. It can be presumed that, with time, the percentage of urban population shall be on an upward curve. Of late, City Mayors Foundation, an international think tank dedicated to urban affairs, presented a list of 100

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‘fastest-growing’ global cities and urban areas. Interestingly, out of them, 25 belonged to India. As it is, about 17 per cent of world’s population resides in India. Thus, simple arithmetic tells us that the growth of Indian cities is well above normal proportions rather than its share of December 2011

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EFFECTIVE SURVEILLANCE AND INTELLIGENCE CAN HELP FIGHT TERRORISM

DEFENDING THE PEACE: The sight of heavily armed security personnel has become a common sight in our cities after the spate of terror attacks across the country

the world population. Statistically speaking, India has 35 cities, each with a population of more than one million. In total, some 108 million Indians, or about 10 per cent of the national population lives in the country’s 35 largest cities. Threats to global cities Stephen Graham, Professor at the Newcastle University, writes: “Urban modernity, despite its promises of absolute technological and material progress, is actually utterly interwoven with fragility and vulnerability.” Extrapolating further, military historian Roger J Spiller says: “Being chiefly human, cities can be killed.” And Jon Lang does not provide consolation either as he asserts: “All too often, the city’s survival hangs in a precarious balance.” www.geopolitics.in

To refer to Graham again, “Cities, warfare and organised political violence have always been mutual constructions.” Furthermore, on the sidelines of the 9/11 attacks on New York, the old defensive responses to urban terrorism; viz. CCTVs, roadblocks, heavily-controlled street spaces, immigration controls — seemed almost comically irrelevant. Nevertheless, it still does not overtly imply that such seemingly outmoded instruments of anti-terrorism be put in the list of obsolescence altogether. In these circumstances, terrorism, among other things like poverty and lack of a proper environment, remains the chief nemesis for the global cities. It needs to be understood that all terror attacks on global cities shall not be replicas of September 11 — i.e. of the same magnitude and intensity. For instance, attacks in Karachi, Lahore, Moscow and London reveal that following basic approaches in combating terror could become quite valuable. Hence, surveillance and monitoring with the help of CCTVs, compounded with grass-roots-level human intelligence can be effective tools in thwarting ‘glocal’ (thinking globally and acting locally) terrorist acts. The peculiar case of India It is noteworthy that Indian cities, and especially ‘growing cities’ like Agra, Pune, Patna, Nasik and others are prone to terrorist and insurgent attacks. The repeated bomb blasts in Mumbai, Delhi and Bengaluru, with occasional hits at Agra and Pune indicate such a pattern of non-state actors. Apart from the well-identified and deadly cross-border bred fundamentalists, Indian cities face a terror threat from another quarter. And that comes from the left-wing insurgents, popularly called the Maoists. Vishwaranjan, the top cop of the central Indian state of Chhattisgarh, had alleged

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in early 2011 that Indian Maoists were seriously building up their urban bases to create a steady supply of logistics, technological help and recruits. In fact, July 2011 reportage in the Indian media mentioned: “The Maoists are planning to spread their tentacles in urban areas after years of creating terror in rural pockets.” The report further informed that at a high-level meeting of senior Maoist leaders held in July 2011, a plan was chalked out to re-organise the set-up of the Communist Party of India (Maoist). The Maoists have planned separate sections to look after the affairs of rural as well as the urban areas, respectively. A source in the rebel group, according to the report, said that the new plan(s) for urban areas were “officially” unveiled from August 15, 2011, onwards. As per the plan chalked out for urban areas, the Maoists attempt to have separate area committees, sub-zones, zones, regional and special area committees. The central committee of the outfit will also have a separate in-charge for urban affairs. The committees constituted for urban affairs will hold meetings to discuss the public problems in the urban areas. One of the prominent issues that the Maoists envisaged to focus was rehabilitation of the footpath-dwelling population. It was clear from the report that the Maoists planned to raise the banner of insurrection in the Indian cities through popular activism. Furthermore, in August 2011, while answering questions in Parliament, Minister of State for Home Jitendra Singh listed Bengaluru, Mumbai, New Delhi, Kolkata and Chennai among 10 Indian cities where the presence of guerrillas had been detected. Hence, it cannot probably be termed a coincidence that there have been arrests by the Indian Police (between 2007 and 2011), of prominent Maoist leaders from cities such as New Delhi, Mumbai, Pune, Thane, Nasik, Kolkata, Chandigarh and other urban areas. These are pointers to the fact that the ultras are spreading their wings in cities. R Venkatramani, a researcher based in New Delhi, articulates at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, that in the Indian cities “instead of carrying out attacks against symbols of the state, the Maoists are attempting to reach out to intellectuals and academic scholars on the one hand and industrial workers, persons who occupy lower positions in the government and students on the other. In this December 2011

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TOO LITTLE TOO LATE: Security personnel guard the site of the Delhi High Court bombing this year H C Tiwari

way, they are seeking to mobilise the urban populace as their patrons, supporters and sympathisers, rather than as armed cadres.” Thus, the incursion of the Maoists in the cities, in essence, shapes up as a more deep-rooted problem than the known external threat from Islamist fundamentalists. The threat assumes further importance as the ultimate aim of the left wing insurgents is to capture state authority by defeating the government forces in the rural areas in a protracted war and finally zoom in on the cities. Mao, Che and the Maoist document As a matter of fact, the Ninth Unity Congress of the Communist Party of India (Maoists) held in early 2007 had resolved to take the struggle into urban areas. The document of the Maoists at the Ninth Congress read thus: “Working class leadership is the indispensable condition for the New Democratic Revolution (NDR) in India. Working class has to send its advanced detachments to rural areas.” Thus, being the centres of concentration of the industrial proletariat (industrial workers), urban areas play an important part in the political strategy of the NDR. The task of the party in urban areas is to mobilise and organise the proletariat in performing its crucial leadership role. According to the Indian Maoists, “The specific characteristics of revolutionary war in India is to determine the military strategy as that of protracted people’s war — of establishing revolutionary base areas www.geopolitics.in

first in the countryside where the enemy (read the government) is militarily weak and then to gradually surround and capture the cities, which are bastions of the enemy forces.” It is clear from the Maoists’ document that the armed struggle and the movement in the rural areas will play the primary role; whereas the work in the cities will play a secondary role, complementary to the rural work. The legendary Mao Tse-tung had said: “The final objective of the revolution is the capture of the cities, the enemy’s main bases, and this objective cannot be achieved without adequate work in the cities.” The charismatic Che Guevara too opined: “The importance of the urban struggle is extraordinary.” The Maoists assess that presently, India has a larger proportion of the population in urban areas and a much larger working class than at the time of the Chinese revolution. This increases the relative importance of urban work in the particular conditions of the Indian revolution. Nevertheless, in cities, the counterinsurgency state forces are very strong and hence the Maoists are careful while establishing bases. Since a steady supply of urban cadre is necessary to fulfil the needs of the rural movement and to fuel the protracted people’s war, establishment of urban bases is imperative for the Maoists. Why an urban base? An urban base provides logistical support to the armed struggle, i.e. technical and medical help. It further helps send cadres

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to rural areas. The Maoists also plan to infiltrate into enemy organisations such as the police, para-military and military. They attempt to do so by conducting propaganda warfare; viz. upholding the problems of the ordinary constables and soldiers. Thus a favourable condition exists in the urban areas in India for the building of broad mass fronts against the state structures. At least that is the evaluation of the Indian Maoists. It may also be inferred that the Maoists are venturing into the Indian cities with obvious intentions of solidifying and extending their networks and in addition to that, they are in the process of colluding with other terrorist outfits based in the Northeast, Bangladesh and Nepal, which have grave security implications for the Indian State. Though the fast-growing Indian cities are vulnerable from cross-border terror attacks and the blasts may be heard from far-off places like New York, a much more lethal attack comes from the local insurgents. India, at present, finds itself enmeshed in a confrontation of capitalliberalism vis a vis Mao’s communism, entangled in a showdown between city culture and rural squeaks and entwined with the competing branches of growth in gross domestic product and a subversive tendency, which wishes to wreck from within the democratic ethos of the nation. (The author teaches at BPPIMT, Kolkata, and is a strategic analyst at ITS, Landshut, Germany) December 2011

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DIPLOMACY

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THE KHAN IMPACT MAKING SAARC RELEVANT

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Pakistan's legendary cricketer now wants to play a long political innings. Will he succeed?

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Pakistan’s most celebrated cricketer is now his country’s most talked-about politician. But what is his politics? Is he for status quo? Or, is he going to be a catalyst for change? MOONIS AHMAR discusses the new phenomenon in Pakistani politics SEMINAL SPEECH: Imran Khan has taken 15 years to get recognised as a serious contender in the next elections

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SPECIALREPORT

TESTING TIMES FOR IMRAN KHAN

“This is not a flood, this is a tsunami. Anyone up against it will be swept away.” — Imran Khan

mran Khan has finally made it! This is a general perception which is held by the majority of people in Pakistan, based on his successful public meeting held at Minar-i-Pakistan on October 30, 2011. Imran Khan, the chief of Pakistan Tekrik-i-Insaf (PTI), took 15 years to get recognised as a serious politician and a powerful contender in the next general elections. Although Imran Khan was no doubt a factor in Pakistan’s politics before his Lahore public meeting, the October 30 www.geopolitics.in

rally has made an enormous difference. Khan claims both Asif Zardari and Nawaz Sharif have become part of history and the tsunami of PTI will wipe out not only corrupt politicians, but also build a new Pakistan based on social justice, the rule of law, good governance and a sovereign foreign policy. In his Lahore public meeting, he also called on both the leadership of Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) (PML-N) to declare their “real” assets, bring back their “ill-gotten money” from abroad or face the wrath of people. The editorial in The News International of October 31, “Agent of Change?” made a fair assessment of Imran Khan’s prospects

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on Pakistan’s political scene. It argued: “If Imran Khan and PTI can translate a mass of people into a mass of votes and then become a new breed of legislators, then their worth as change agents is proven. But there is a long way between the rally and the ballot box. The challenge will be to hold on to the numbers and the momentum, and to deliver a set of policies that tell us clearly how Imran Khan and his party is going to pull us back from the brink.” Pakistan is certainly in a bad shape because of its poor economic condition, rampant corruption, breakdown of law and order, radicalisation, militancy and terrorism. In 64 years of Pakistan’s history, December 2011

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the army remained at the helm of affairs for 35 years and the rest of the time weak civilian governments under the shadow of the men in uniform grappled with issues of bad governance and poverty. But politicians alone should not be blamed for Pakistan’s predicament, as those wielding power directly and by remote control, are responsible, in fact, for the mess in the country. How can Imran Khan hope to change the country for the better without diminishing the control of Pakistan’s military and intelligence agencies, and why does he think that by bringing PTI to power, the destiny of the country will change? Beyond rhetoric and oversimplification of things, it is time a serious assessment is made of the ‘Imran Khan Factor’ in Pakistani politics because the rally and public meeting of PTI have proved one thing: there is surely a degree of support, particularly among youngsters, for him. Around 55 per cent population of Pakistan is below 30 and it is this segment of society that Imran Khan has targeted. The Pakistani cricket hero is known for his www.geopolitics.in

good work in the fields of health and education and has always enjoyed support among the youth of his country. Since 1996, when he entered politics and formed the PTI, Imran has faced enormous criticism on three counts the first of which is his personal life, for which he has been labelled a “playboy” or even a “born-again Muslim”. His western lifestyle and numerous scandals were contradictory to his call for an Islamic system in Pakistan. The second was his soft corner for Islamic militants, which gave him the name “Taliban Khan”. The third charge was that his party, unlike other mainstream political parties, was a one-man show because of a dearth of high-ranking leaders. Furthermore, he is also criticised for supporting the regime of General Musharraf, starting with his seizure of power from the democratically-elected government of Nawaz Sharif on October 12, 1999, supporting Musharraf’s 2002 referendum and the passing of the 17th amendment, which gave indemnity to the General’s unconstitutional acts.

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Critics also call Imran a man of contradictions because of his dual personality. On one hand he is called “Taliban Khan”, but on the other hand, one can observe him interacting freely with the West. The fact is that Imran resembles those Pakistanis, or for that matter some Muslim men, who spent their youth in the West but over a period of time were transformed into ‘Islamists’. He also wants to lure the secular youth of Pakistan, a fact which was witnessed in his October 30 public meeting in Lahore, and at the same time attracts conservative Islamic segments of Pakistani society. His war cry to rid Pakistan of poverty and backwardness contradicts with his own lifestyle, which is certainly not of the lower or middle-class type. Despite all such contradictions and weaknesses, Imran Khan is gaining popularity in Pakistan. His rise in politics is because of a leadership vacuum that exists in the country today. As the only untested leader in the corridors of power and with a relatively charismatic figure, people say that his turn has come. Suddenly, most of the political commentators, who for years used to ignore, ridicule or rather underestimate Imran Khan’s position, now think that he can break the monopoly of both the PPP and the PML (N) and provide an alternate leadership to the country which is literally dying for want of good governance and social justice. The myth and reality of Imran Khan will certainly become clearer in the days to come. Does the majority of the rural and urban lower middle class, who constitute 80 per cent of the population of Pakistan, support him or is he only supported by a section of the middle or upper middle class? Some of the grey areas present in the politics of Imran Khan and his October 30 public meeting were examined by Pakistan Today in its issue of November 3, 2011. According to that newspaper, which is owned by an influential Punjabi media person from Lahore, “Among the audience was a fairly large number of the present or past alumni of the upscale English-medium schools who enthusiastically responded to the bands of their liking playing on the stage. While a significant section of the mega city was thus represented at the rally, there was only a sprinkling of a much larger section comprising the lower middle class, the urban poor and labour. Also disquieting was the absence of a vision and a hunch for quick fixes in Imran’s December 2011

g SPECIALREPORT speech. This created the perception that if electricity was restored and the money stashed away in foreign banks brought back, the country would be flowing with milk and honey. There was no word about the restoration of law and order, the issue of poverty and lawlessness and the uncontrolled growth of population that continues to nullify whatever remedial measures are taken. It is naive to think that those who are fighting for a worldwide Khilafat, or continue to kill people belonging to other Muslim sects will become peaceful citizens once the USled forces have left Afghanistan. Similarly, there was no word on how to address the grievances of the smaller provinces.” Based on their own assessments and biases, some political leaders called the public meeting

of Imran Khan a “musical concert” sponsored by the “establishment”, while others ruled out change in Pakistan just on the basis of holding one public meeting. Political commentators with a neutral stance would agree that, after a long time, the people of Lahore were able to participate in a public meeting without the fear of a suicide attack and those who attended that meeting also enjoyed the musical concert performed by young artists. As Imran Khan offered his Maghrib prayers on the stage, he also allowed music and songs to entertain the people. Imran Khan’s strategy to depict a progressive and secular face amidst his subtle radical religious leanings, succeeded to a large extent. The general elections in Pakistan are due any time after February 2013. That timeline will give Imran Khan a lot of space to organise his party, further expose his political opponents,

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particularly those belonging to PML (N), and select candidates according to the criteria set by his party. According to an interview with The New York Times, Imran Khan said: “People confuse two types of politics. One is the politics of movement. The other is traditional power-based politics. Tehreek-e-Insaf is never going to win the traditional way.” If the non-traditional style of politics is to be carried out by Imran Khan then he must have a strategy to face two major challenges: first, how will he cope with traditional politics in rural Punjab and Sindh where no political party can win without the support from feudal and other powerful figures and second, how will he control religious right, particularly in the tribal belt of Pakistan, who because of the anti-American support to him, also want the imposition of their own brand of Shariah? Further, how will he cope with the situation when, as suspected by various political analysts, the PPP, the PML (N) and the security establishment will penetrate the PTI’s rank and file to discredit him or prevent him from carrying out his party’s programme which can hurt the interests of the traditional elite and political stalwarts? The military and security establishment of Pakistan, particularly, are accused of pursuing the approach by inducting their loyalists to prevent the strengthening of democratic political forces in the country. Imran Khan has invited “clean” and people with “integrity” to his party. According to him, those with a corruption-free background in various political parties are welcome to join the PTI. But he has ruled out forging an electoral alliance with any political party. Senior Pakistani journalist Rahimullah Yusufzai says: “The successful Lahore public meeting seems to have changed all that and much more. One should now expect a beeline of politicians, mostly the old ones, wanting to join the PTI to benefit from Imran’s popularity. Those who didn’t do so earlier could be regretting their indecision. The apolitical and those seeking a change had already made up their mind and reposed trust in Imran, but the fence-sitters and the opportunists would be making their choices now and hoping to join his bandwagon. This is going to be MULTIFACETED POLITICIAN: Imran Khan’s connections with the west have been an obstacle to his rise in the past

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December 2011

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SPECIALREPORT

MISSION IMPOSSIBLE: Can Khan change Pakistan without diminishing the control of its military and intelligence agencies?

Imran’s biggest challenge, as he has to be selective in allowing people to gain entry into the PTI. He has to choose between the loyalists, the ones who stayed with him through thick and thin, and the socalled electables, those with the means to win at the polls.” A survey recently conducted by the US-based polling organisation Pew Research Center termed Imran Khan a popular political figure of Pakistan. But, that doesn’t mean that he is at the threshold of an electoral victory because in order to seek power he needs to cross the bridge or, perhaps, many bridges. If Imran Khan wants to be a catalyst for change in Pakistan, the situation is ripe but he has to meet certain conditions. First, positive change in Pakistan cannot be brought only by holding rallies and meetings, it requires an enormous amount of work at the grassroot level so that an ordinary person is motivated and is on board. PTI, at the moment, lacks organisational skills and resources to match the critical mass which the founder of the Pakistan People’s Party, Zulfikar Bhutto, had created in late 1960s and early 1970s. Even Bhutto, despite his charisma and landslide electoral success in the December 1970 general elections in Punjab and Sindh, the two populous provinces and considered the bastion of power in the then western wing of Pakistan, was not able to put the country on the right track. The issues of poverty, illiteracy, corruption www.geopolitics.in

IF IMRAN KHAN PLAYS HIS CARDS RIGHT, HE CAN DAMAGE THE VOTE BANK OF THE PPP AND THE PML (N) and bad governance were not sorted out during his regime. Secondly, things have changed in Pakistan since 1970, as not only has the population multiplied but even society has become indifferent to crime, corruption, violence, extremism and terrorism. According to some experts, if Pakistan is not a failed state, it can be described as a failing state because of serious issues related to bad governance, terrorism and worsening of economic conditions. The surge of the mafia, which can be described as a state within a state, undermines the legitimacy of the authorities. Despite its demonstration of relative popularity in Lahore, the PTI is not capable of dealing with the monstrous issues that threaten the very survival of Pakistan. Thirdly, much of Pakistan’s economic and political predicament is the outcome of unresolved conflicts with neighbours,

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particularly with India. Imran Khan’s policy vis-à-vis the Kashmir dispute and normalisation of relations with India is not so different from other parties. There is no policy on his part about curtailing defence expenditure that is a large chunk of Pakistan’s annual budget because a deviation from Islamabad’s traditional policy on Kashmir or downsizing defence expenditure would mean antagonising the military establishment. It is too early to predict the fate of the PTI in the next general elections but what is certain is that if Imran Khan plays his cards well and takes advantage of the political void — after engaging the silent majority in his favour and ensuring an independent election commission — is above contradictions and, most important, motivates the overwhelming majority of voters to exercise their voting rights, he can surely damage the vote bank of both the PPP and the PML (N) and put his party in a commanding position. So far, luck is favouring him because of the mess that has been created by the mainstream political parties over a period of time but his political fortune depends on the performance of the PPP and the PML (N) in the coming elections and the election campaign of the PTI. (The author is Professor, Department of International Relations, University of Karachi and Director, Programme on Peace Studies and Conflict Resolution) December 2011

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UNDEMOCRATIC

recently found it hard to discover who the militants actually were. Even Bouthania Shaaban, the advisor to President Bashar al-Assad, did not know what was happening in Homs, the main trouble spot. But according to the Governor of Homs, Ghassan Abdul-Aal, the troublemakers are mainly members of the banned Muslim Brotherhood and criminals and smugglers who operate on the borders with Turkey and Lebanon. Ghassan also said that people living in the slums and rural areas on the fringes of Homs were Extremists are hijacking the Arab Spring in the midst of also involved. The Governor went on to say that Homs had a large Sunni populawestern attempts to destabilise the Middle East, writes tion with a fair share of Islamists who he SATISH JACOB claimed were being funded by what he called “foreign powers”. He did YRIA IS much in the not name the foreign powers but news these days. If one everyone on the streets in Homs were to believe internapointed their finger at America. tional TV news netIn Homs, I saw a badly damworks, the Syrian regime aged military truck in the middle is soon going to meet the same of a residential area. It had been fate as other countries in the ambushed earlier in the day. NineMiddle East have met in what teen soldiers were reportedly badcan be termed “never-ending ly wounded in the attack. We were Arab Spring”. It was Tunisia taken to a nearby hospital where where the Arab Spring began in we saw, among others, a little boy January and it soon brought and a few soldiers hit by bullets. down Hosni Mubarak’s regime in The child’s mother said he was hit Egypt and Gaddafi in Libya. by snipers while walking down the News channels such as the BBC, street. An army officer, who lay CNN and Al Jazeera are of the wounded in another room, said he view that there are huge public was injured while trying to shield demonstrations in Syria against citizens under attack. the regime of President Bashar According to doctors, on an al-Assad, who’s been accused of average between ten and fifteen running what they call an “undepeople were being brought into mocratic and oppressive rule”. the hospital every day. According There have been incidents of to Ghassan Abdul-Aal, the Goverviolence in just three Syrian cities nor of Homs, more than 100 army bordering Lebanon and Turkey. soldiers have died so far. Homs The official death toll in the tenshuts down by night. It was dark month clashes between governwhen we were leaving the city ment troops and protesters is and it definitely appeared tense. 3000 dead and 1700 injured. The army’s presence was miniIn their reports, the internamal. The Governor explained that tional networks do not say who this was a deliberate attempt to the protesters are. But a group of deny a handle to America by not Indian journalists and academ- UNITED IN ANGER: The fall of authoritarian regimes during deploying a large number of solics including this author, who the Arab Spring and sporadic violence by the Islamists seem to diers at any level and the strategy were invited to visit Syria, have united a majority of the Syrians was to exercise restraint.

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December 2011

g GROUNDVIEW It will almost be a repeat of Iraq and Libya. It is true that Gaddafi was a cruel dictator and amassed wealth for himself and his extended family but he also shared the country’s revenue from oil generously to modernise Libya and was always ready to lend a helping hand to the emerging middle class. It is an open secret that he gave interest-free loans to young couples to acquire homes and higher education. It was the same story with Saddam Hussain of Iraq. During his regime, the Iraqis enjoyed economic wellbeing unheard of in other parts of the world. Diesel and petrol were free not only for the Iraqis but even for drivers from neighbouring Syria and Jordan. Every citizen, irrespective of his position in civil society received every consumer item for free from the government. Saddam’s regime was also secular though he was intolerant when it came to dissent. He massacred Kurds killing thousands of villagers in the north and his troops ruthlessly crushed a rebellion by the Shias following the invasion of Kuwait. But he took care of his people as long as they refrained from politics. The western world accused him of colluding with al Qaida to attack America. Saddam was also accused of storing lethal weapons which turned out to be a cooked-up claim by Britain and America. President Bush said he got rid of Saddam to establish democracy in Iraq. Ten years later, Iraq is still plagued by violence. Iraq has huge oil reserves but now it is importing oil from Kuwait for its domestic consumption. Even if America succeeded in toppling Asad’s regime, as it has done in quick succession in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and Libya, its problems in the Middle East may continue. In Libya, the ruling council has declared it would introduce

sharia rule, and in Tunisia, a conservative Islamic Enhada has emerged as the single largest party. In Egypt and Syria, the Muslim Brotherhood enjoys political support. Piqued by the recent declaration by interim rulers in favour of sharia laws, in some Middle Eastern countries, nearly 80 international human rights and secularist activists have launched a campaign for a free and secular Middle East and North Africa. I will personally be sad to see Syria go fundamentalist. It was a sheer joy to see fashionable Syrian women in tight jeans and spaghetti tops smoking “Sheesha” on the roadside cafes in Damascus and the Mediterranean resort of Latakia.

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As we were leaving, large crowds surrounded us chanting: “Allah, Syria, Assad.” The chants quickly changed to “Allah, Syria, Hind” as soon as they realised that we were Indians. The popularity of India in Syria is at its peak after its recent vote of abstention in the UN Security Council was reported in the country. In Damascus, Aleppo and the Mediterranean resort of Latakia, people on the streets greeted us by shouting, “Thank you India”, and the shopkeepers insisted on giving us tokens of appreciation. So, what is the real picture in Syria? It is clear that the situation in Homs and two other border towns is tense and that the violence has been going on continuously for months. But so far, it has not spread to other parts of the country. Damascus and Aleppo, the two largest cities together account for more than 50 per cent of the population of Syria. The streets there were bustling in support of President Assad. He is seen as the symbol of a sovereign Syria even by those who do not hesitate to point out that his government had failed to fulfil its promise of implementing reforms and holding elections. The fall of authoritarian regimes in the Middle East during the current Arab Spring, and sporadic violence by the Islamists seem to have united a majority of the Syrians, who appear to be determined to isolate the small number of extremists to succeed in their rebellion and demand for democracy through a regime change with the help of America and NATO. Syria is truly a pluralistic and secular country. Ten per cent of its population are Christian and there are even Jewish and Armenian quarters in Damascus and the ancient city of Alleppo. In the Mediterranean resort of Latakia, a few young women clad in jeans and smart tops and blond hair puffed at their sheeshe told us, “Syria would not tolerate US interference.” So be it. But they did not seem to realise that in a unipolar world, America’s will prevails. Ten years ago, America and its allies destroyed Saddam’s Iraq and only recently hunted Libya’s Gaddafi like a criminal. I fear that this ancient and historic land of Syria, which gave the world its first alphabets, may meet the same fate as Libya, Yemen and Egypt did .

UNDER FIRE: President Assad is seen as the symbol of a sovereign Syria even by those who point out that his government failed to fulfil its promise of implementing reforms

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THE EURASIAN

DREAM

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is pushing a new idea. He wants to create an “Eurasian Union” to integrate the independent republics of the former USSR into a single economic — and eventually political — super-state, writes ARUN MOHANTY

USSIAN PRIME Minister Vladimir Putin’s recent article titled “New Integration Project for Eurasia — The Future In Making” has triggered an unprecedented flurry of reaction ranging from euphoria to outright rejection of the idea across the world. The Izvestia article penned by Putin, who is expected to be the President for at least the next 12 years, reflects his geopolitical vision of Russia for years and maybe for decades to come. It is for the first time since the collapse of the Soviet Union (USSR) that a Russian leader has so forcefully talked about reintegrating a geopolitical space that would be called the Eurasian Union, an idea that smacks of the revival of the Soviet Union and hence sends panic waves through the strategic community in the West. While Russophobes across the globe interpret Putin’s vision of creating a Eurasian Union

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REVIVING PAST GLORIES: It has been for the first time since the collapse of the Soviet Union that a Russian leader, Vladimir Putin, has talked forcefully about reintegrating a geopolitical space that would be called the Eurasian Union

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as the rebuilding of the Soviet Union, others hail it as an attempt to restore Russia’s centuries-old status as a global power, which cannot be accomplished without the integration of the Slavic and Turkic territory of Czarist Russia or Soviet Union. The Russian leader calls the scheduled kick starting of the Common Economic Space consisting of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus from January 1, 2012, a ‘historic milestone’, which would be followed by a strong economic, political and humanitarian integration of this increasingly unified territory. The vibrant multi-track integration process gathering momentum in the former Soviet space during last few years has been hard to miss. The creation of Putin’s Eurasian Union on a significant part of the former Soviet territory would be based on a much higher degree of voluntary integration. Regarding the fear of the revival of the USSR, Putin emphasises: “None of this entails any kind of revival of the Soviet Union in one way or the other. It would be naïve to try to restore or emulate something that has been consigned to history. But these times call for close integration based on new values, and a new political and economic foundation.” Putin has, in the past, paid great tribute to the former Soviet Union. In the immediate aftermath of the Beslan terrorist attack that killed 330 children in December 2011

g DIPLOMACY 2004, he had described the dissolution of the Soviet Union as the ‘greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century’. Now the Russian leader highlights: “We have a great inheritance from the Soviet Union. We inherited an infrastructure, specialised production facilities, and a common linguistic, scientific and cultural space. It is in our common interests to use these resources for our common development.” Why does Putin’s initiative scare the West? Because, the successful realisation of Putin’s vision has the potential to lead to serious geopolitical and geoeconomic changes that do not correspond to the concept of the “New Global Order”. The integration project for Eurasia implies a strong Russia’s independent foreign policy, a challenge to the US-dominated unipolar world and American hegemony in world affairs. Today, Russia seems ready not only to initiate but also to build a new supranational association opposed to Atlanticism (based around the Atlantic Ocean: the United States on one side and West Europe on the other) and neo-liberalism. Putin proposes to build something that would spell the end of Western domination. Putin’s vision for building a “strong supranational structure, capable of being one of the poles of the contemporary world and play the role of an effective ‘bridge’ between Europe and a dynamically developing Asia-Pacific region” is a serious challenge to the US hegemony in global affairs and a scary signal for the western geopolitical fraternity. The end of the bipolar world, the disintegration of the USSR and the ‘victory march of democracy’ did not end the struggle for global domination, which is reflected in myriad military interventions against sovereign states and endless information war, coupled with the use of ‘soft power’ for regime change in countries that resist to fall in line. It is the Eurasian space that remains the main battlefield for global domination. In this connection, it is worth recalling the famous words of eminent British geopolitical expert Harold Mackinder “He, who controls the Global Island (Eurasia), would rule over the world.” Putin writes,”We suggest a powerful supranational association capable of becoming one of the poles in the modern world as an efficient bridge between Europe and the dynamic AsiaPacific region. This project also implies www.geopolitics.in

transitioning to closer coordination in economic and currency policies in the Customs Union and Commonwealth of Independent States and establishing a full-fledged economic union.” If we go by Lenin’s words that economics is concentrated version of politics, Putin’s economic union would turn into a political union sooner than later. And this is exactly what scares the West. On October 18, 2011, eight members of Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), a Russia-dominated loose alliance of 11 former Soviet republics, (Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Tajikistan, and Armenia) signed an agreement in Saint Petersburg on the creation of a free-trade-zone which had been on the negotiation table for two decades. The creation of the Eurasian Union is the obvious and logical continuation of the emerging free-trade zone. The emergence of a Customs union consisting of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus, which is the highest level of integration achieved so far on former Soviet territory, emerges not only as a huge regional economic block, but also promises to be a significant pole in the increasingly multi-polar world. In his article Putin says that these three countries were making the integration process a comprehensible, sustainable and long-term project that would function independently from political fluctuations in these countries. Putin emphasises that this was the prime objective when the Eurasian Economic community, consisting of several CIS countries of Slavic and Turkic origin, was set up in the year 2000. It was this rationale of close, mutually-beneficial cooperation, and the understanding of common strategic national interests that led Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan to form the Customs Union. It took nearly two decades to realise the necessity of the formation of an effective Customs Union on the territory of the former Soviet Union. The first Customs Union was set up by Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan in 1995, which was joined by Kyrgyzstan in 1996 and Tajikistan in 1999. However, this Customs Union did not take off then, as the participant countries could not come to any agreement to the resolve the issue of unified Customs tariff. These five countries again formed the Eurasian Economic Community in 2000 on the basis of the proposed Customs union, with Ukraine, Armenia and

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Moldova enjoying observer status in the new association. However, this time too, the integration objectives such as formation of unified financial, energy and transport market, free movement of goods, capital and services could not be achieved because of contradictions among the member-countries. In November 2009, the leaders of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan signed the much-awaited and much-debated agreement to set up their Customs Union, poised to be the largest market in Eurasia with a 172 million population, $2.4 trillion worth of GDP and $1 trillion worth of trade turnover. This economic union would occupy a significant place in the international oil and grain market with its total oil resources touching 95 billion barrels and grain exports constituting 18 per cent of the global market. It wasn’t just analysts and politicians, even the heads of these three countries could barely believe the formation of this Customs Union till the last moment, since all attempts during last two decades to expedite the economic integration in the former Soviet space has met with little success. Finally, the Presidents of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan signed a package of documents that included agreements on a unified Customs, tariff and Customs code at Minsk on November 27, 2009, which raised the hope and optimism that the Customs Union would be kickstarted soon. The process of the formation of the Customs Union had to pass through several stages with unified Customs tariffs taking effect from January 1, 2010 that virtually heralded the functioning of the union. With the unified Customs code becoming effective from July 1, 2011, the three member countries now have effective common customs territory from the middle of 2011. Experts are confident that the customs integration process this time would be a real one, not nominal or superficial, with the customs posts between their borders removed, and all the customs control transferred to external borders. The ultimate goal of the integration process is the formation of a unified economic space stipulating unified rules and regulations of economic management and a common currency. For the first time ever, countries of the Customs union have agreed to transfer part of their sovereignty to a supra-national body. December 2011

g DIPLOMACY common territory that would facilitate development of all member-countries and attract more investment. According to experts, the smaller countries would benefit more by this kind of union as they would have access to Russian resources at concessional prices. By giving economic concessions to smaller countries, Moscow is creating the economic basis for the creation of inter-national political structure to its advantage. In his Izvestia article, Putin stressed that it was crucial that “the Common Economic Space” be rooted in coordinated action in key institutional areas such as macroeconomics, ensuring competition, technical regulations, agricultural subsidies and transport tariffs. Later, this framework would include common visa and migration policies and permitting border controls between the member states to be removed. In fact, the new Customs Union is using the experience of Schengen Agreement that benefits Europeans as well as all those who come to work, study, or holiday in the European Union. This Customs Union will open up new vistas of opportunities for entrepreneurs from all member countries. Entrepreneurs from Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus will have the freedom to choose which of the three countries to register their companies, where they wish to do

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While deciding the unified Customs tariff, Belarus and Kazakhstan had to make certain concessions to Russia as a result of which 92 per cent of the tariffs correspond to Russian Customs duty. Belarus and Kazakhstan would have to raise the duty on a significant part of their imported goods while Russia has to decrease it by 1 per cent. The duty structure planned to defend the domestic market during the crisis period would be drastically reviewed later, with some of the duties completely scrapped. According to the macroeconomic proportions of the member states of the Union, Russia would like to get 90 per cent all import duty. However, Belarus and Kazakhstan apparently expect compensation for the loss they are likely to face as a result of the hike in tariff barriers. The economic effect of the emerging Customs Union may not be the same for all its member countries. Russia is likely to benefit more in the beginning as its industry will have new markets for its products. However, Belarus and Kazakhstan can also expect substantial dividends as Minsk plans to revive its export to Russia that has witnessed a 50 per cent decline last year. It would also benefit hugely by concessions on hydrocarbon prices. According to experts, the common effect from the emerging Customs Union for its members might constitute 15 per cent of their GDP growth. The new Customs Union would benefit all three countries, with Russia receiving about $400 billion, and Belarus and Kazakhstan getting $16 billion each as profit. Other CIS countries are also expected to join the new Customs Union as it promises to benefit all of them. While Kyrgyzstan is on the verge of joining the Customs Union, Tajikistan is holding negotiations and is likely to join the new organisation in the near future. If other CIS countries join the new Customs Union, then it would create a significant market and a huge A NEW EURASIAN ORDER: (Left to right) President Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan, Dmitry Medvedev of Russia and Alyaksandr Lukashenka of Belarus

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business and file their customs registration. This will be a serious incentive for national administrative systems to start improving their market institutions, administrative procedures and their business and investment. It is a known fact that Europe took four long decades to move from the European Coal and Steel community to the European Union. The emergence of a Customs Union and a common economic space in Eurasia, however, is taking place at a much faster pace as it takes the advantages and weaknesses of regional economic associations into account while building their own association. A major roadblock that the Customs Union might hit is the issue of the admission of its members into the World Trade Organisation (WTO). All three countries decided to join WTO together in June, 2011. However, when they faced serious difficulties in course of the negotiations for their joint admission into WTO, they decided to join the organisation separately but on common terms and conditions. The fact that Kazakhstan has to conduct additional negotiations since Russia has already achieved certain favourable conditions from WTO, and Belarus is at the beginning of the negotiation process makes their admission process complicated. Moreover, the emergence of a new integrated economic space on the eastern border of Europe does not evoke any enthusiasm from the latter, as the new Customs Union would drastically curtail the West’s ability to influence former’s economic policy. Be that as it may, the rapid economic reintegration of the former Soviet space is likely to lead to accelerated political integration in this region. Though the Russian Prime Minister has said that his project does not envisage the revival of the Soviet Union, Moscow’s geopolitical rival — the West — has not missed the point and has started hysterics about a possible Soviet revival. (The author is a Professor at School of International Studies, JNU)

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SAARC: ELEPHANT? A WHITE

Ever since its formation in 1985, doubts have been raised over the relevance of the South Asia Association for Regional Cooperation as it is neither an economic bloc nor a grouping for geopolitics. But is this assessment fair? YAMINI CHOWDHURY talks to a cross section of experts to find out

outh Asia, a vast region vexed by conflict, formed the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, (SAARC), in 1985. The forum, imbued with the objective of strengthening cooperation within South Asia on matters of common interest, was established by seven founding members — India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, Nepal and Maldives. The year 2005 marked the entry of Afghanistan into its fold. The nineobserver nations, including the United States, Iran, Japan, South Korea, the EU and China, have given the Kathmanduheadquartered multilateral organisation an international dimension. www.geopolitics.in

The SAARC charter behoves its member states “to promote the welfare of the people of South Asia; to strengthen cooperation among themselves in international forums, and with other developing countries, on matters of common interests; and to cooperate with international regional organisations with similar aims and purposes”. Among its avowed objectives include the promotion of cooperation in eleven areas, as diverse as agriculture, education, culture and sports to science, technology, communication and rural development. Covering an area of approximately 5.1 million square kilometres and representing close to 23 per cent of the world’s

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population, SAARC is arguably one of the largest regional associations in the world that is characterised by multiple strands. On one hand, it is representative of common values entrenched in cultural, social, historical and ethnic traditions. But on the other hand, its functioning is greatly wounded by the enormity of issues such as abject poverty, overpopulation, misgovernance, systemic instability and above all, violence in all its complexities — ethnic, communal and religious. The recently-concluded 17th SAARC Summit in Maldives raises certain fundamental questions — Is SAARC really an emblem for South Asia’s aspirations and expectations? Has the association been December 2011

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SOUTH ASIAN FAMILY: Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh with Heads of State of SAARC countries at the inaugural session of the 17th SAARC Summit at Addu Atoll in Maldives on November 10, 2011

able to deliver on its perceptible and positive promises? Has the real focus of the forum paled into insignificance due to the sustained media attention on the IndoPak conflict? How can the forum leverage the tremendous economic potential of South Asia? Above all, how can SAARC, a regional body, acquire a more assertive and effective global presence? Analysts believe that the extremely volatile security architecture in South Asia precludes the rise of SAARC to great heights on the world arena. Almost all nations are dealing with virulent fundamentalism, internal strife and bloody conflicts. So if the orgy of violence in Kashmir and the north-east look intractable in India, its neighbours, Pakistan and Bangladesh, continue to be rattled by Islamic fundamentalists. The India-Pakistan trust deficit, the Maoist rebellion in Nepal, the Afghan quagmire and the ethnic strife in Sri Lanka have threatened to shake the edifice of South Asian unity. The remaining two states — Bhutan and Maldives — are small nations that have their own set of headaches — political, economic and social. Apart from the strong, political undercurrents, poverty, overpopulation and galloping corruption are inextricably entrenched in www.geopolitics.in

the region, thus preventing SAARC from making sustainable progress. If Bangladesh has been able to promote an inclusive social agenda and if Sri Lanka has managed to quell a prolonged civil war, it has been achieved outside the SAARC framework. Nepali Congress leader, Dr Prakash Sharan Mahat, had recently described SAARC summits as “just get-togethers of heads of South Asian countries”. It is a common utterance within the region, considering the perceived failure of the forum to ensure expeditious implementation of their foundational ideals. With institutions, established to promote regional cooperation, functioning suboptimally and continued sluggishness in advancing inter-country economic and bilateral relations, SAARC has earned the sobriquet of a ‘political white elephant’. Are such criticisms fair? “It is grossly incorrect to say that SAARC has failed to achieve its founding objectives,” emphasises former Indian Foreign Secretary, Shashank. “The forum was established with the primary objective of alleviating hostile feelings among member states. Further, the association has been able to arrive at mutually favourable decisions relating to free trade, poverty alleviation,

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social welfare, connectivity and common facilities,” he asserts. Dismissing remarks about the inherent fragility of the association in comparison with other regional blocs such as the European Union and ASEAN, Inderpal Khosla, Editor-in-Chief of South Asian Survey maintains, “Having conducted 17 summits in the last 25 years of its establishment, SAARC definitely has a better track record vis-à-vis ASEAN, which conducted its first summit in 1976, nine years after it came into existence in 1967.” Commenting on the iniquitous comparison with the EU, he points out: “The circumstances which impelled nations in Europe to coalesce under one identity, like the imminent threat of war, do not exist in South Asia. Since the collective threat perceptions here are different, there is really no compelling incentive for nations to band together.” The systematic inability of SAARC to implement previous agreements with forcefulness is another reason for it being viewed through a negative prism. In the recent past, several agreements and conventions, including the SAARC Integrated Programme of Action or SIPA, the SAARC Food Security Reserve, the Regional Convention on Suppression of December 2011

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SHARED PLATFORM: Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and the Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, flanked by Union Minister for External Affairs, SM Krishna and the Foreign Minister of Pakistan, Hina Rabbani Khar, at the joint press interaction on the sidelines of the 17th SAARC Summit

Terrorism and the SAARC University have been announced amid much fanfare. But they have failed to generate interest among South Asians. Veterans like Shashank attribute this to “a change in leadership, which brings with it the promise of new initiatives, ideas and solutions that may not always conform to established frameworks”. According to Dr. Bhuvan Chandra Upreti, Senior Faculty Member of the South Asia Studies Centre, Jaipur, “SAARC has been completely overshadowed by the prolonged sparring between two nuclear-powered neighbours — India and Pakistan — and hence, an atmosphere of distrust has permeated most summits.” “Further”, stresses Dr Upreti, “the members are still to get over their colonial past, which has been a cause of many misunderstandings and conflicts.” It is an opinion shared by Chloe Choquier, Consultant on Security and Human Rights issues for the Organisation for Security and Co-Operation in Europe (OSCE) in Warsaw, Poland. “As long as relations between India and Pakistan dominate annual summits, SAARC won’t be a credible regional actor. It is critical for India and Pakistan to become leaders in the regional effort to build trust www.geopolitics.in

between members. Both Pakistan and Sri Lanka are in favour of amending the SAARC charter in order to enable discussion on bilateral issues. Since economic cooperation cannot be achieved without a resolution of political issues, India, as a leading member of SAARC, has a responsibility in convening informal bilateral negotiations with its neighbours to deal with regional disputes, which would allow SAARC’s annual summits to stimulate regional integration”, stresses Chloe Despite these political differences and border disputes, experts like Inderpal Khosla consider SAARC to be “reasonably successful on its own terms, as on some occasions, the conclaves have stimulated high-level dialogue between contentious neighbours”. Concurs Shashank, adding: “Every regional forum has a chequered record, and SAARC is no different. The inability of SAARC to achieve complete regional integration is its Achilles’ heel.” Over the years, economic integration of SAARC members has been acknowledged as the most decisive step towards achieving sustained growth and stability. The close proximity of the countries in the region and membership of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) has not stimulated regional trade, which constitutes a dismal

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5 per cent of the total trade in the region. Dr Rajesh Chadha, Senior Fellow, National Council of Applied Economic Research, explains the reasons for the limited economic integration of South Asia. “South Asian countries chose to adopt strong inward looking policies from the 1950s. Trade liberalisation started in the region from the late 70s and accelerated in the 90s. Despite sustained efforts towards economic integration since 1985, intraregional trade has diminished from 40 per cent in the 1940’s to about 5 per cent, making South Asia more protectionist than East or South-east Asia. Political tensions have further constrained progress on a regional scale leading to several bilateral trading agreements among SAARC members”, articulates Dr Chadha. However, economists like Dr. Shankar Acharya, Honorary Professor and Member, Board of Governors at the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER), believe that even though the region was always guided by economic imperatives, the presence of significant bilateral, political problems relegated this important agenda to the background. “The liberalisation regime of the 90’s combined with the Look-East Policy encouraged India, the December 2011

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HEARTFELT BONHOMIE: Rahul Khullar, Secretary, Ministry of Commerce, receiving his Pakistani counterpart, Zafar Mahmood

most dominant player in the SAARC economy, to adopt an outward-looking approach towards its neighbours in South Asia,” maintains Dr. Acharya. As India, like the rest of South Asia, gained considerable economic clout on the world stage, it became essential to focus on the imperatives — increased FDI and greater market access. It was this outward-looking approach that paved the way for the South Asian Free Trade Area or SAFTA, the first concrete step towards ensuring complete economic integration of the region, after the South Asian Preferential Trading Arrangement (SAPTA) in 1995. SAFTA came into effect in 2006 with the objective of “eliminating non-tariff barriers, facilitating the cross-border movement of goods, promoting conditions of fair competition in the free-trade area and establishing a framework for further regional cooperation to expand and enhance the mutual benefits of the agreement”. Assessing the success achieved by SAFTA, Inderpal Khosla states, “The Free Trade Area has been established without any of the states giving up their sovereign equality, independence and territorial integrity.” Adds Dr. Acharya, “India’s free-trade agreements with Sri Lanka and Bhutan, and the trade and transit agreement with Nepal are part of this vision for greater www.geopolitics.in

economic integration envisaged under SAFTA. The future definitely holds a lot of promise for the region.” The establishment of the South Asia Forum at the 16th Summit in Thimphu enabled SAARC to address the challenge of translating institutions into actions. “The Forum”, states Chloe Choquier, “which gathered for the first time in Delhi on 8-9 September 2011, is a positive element in terms of SAARC’s capacity for action. By involving representatives from the government, think-tanks, academia, media, civil society and chambers of commerce, the South Asia Forum also enables a new kind of dialogue between members. In the long run, if discussions were to happen at the level of the South Asia Forum, the role of SAARC summits would then be to translate decisions into concrete results”, she concludes. For SAARC to emerge as a potent trading bloc, it must adapt to the changing regional dynamics and take its economic agenda forward. Dr Chadha affirms, “There is scope for achieving substantial gains from increased trade and investment through deeper regional integration. South Asia as a bloc needs to engage actively with East Asia. India, being the largest member of the group, must lead the initiative and build confidence among other SAFTA members. The indi-

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cations of Pakistan granting MFN status to India and revoking the negative list of imports by the end of 2012 has added value to such wider initiatives.” However, there is a lot that needs to be done for intra-SAARC economic cooperation to reach a sustainable trajectory. “If South Asia has to acquire a greater economic cachet, there must be continued focus on improving connectivity, which would stimulate a greater people-to-people contact. Trade-related issues such as import duties, customs, transit points, taxes and quotas also need to be addressed expeditiously”, suggests Inderpal Khosla. Shashank recommends, “Instead of looking for solutions within the SAARC framework, member states must build ties, both collectively and individually, with other regional institutions such as EAS, ECO, BIMSTEC, ASEAN, APEC and the SCO. Apart from improving road, rail, air and sea links, we also need to revamp our archaic visa regime by simplifying regulations, immigration procedures and documentation. But before that people within their own countries must be empowered adequately.” The 17th SAARC Summit in Addu city in Maldives from 10 to 11 November did live up to its theme of “Building Bridges”, considering the thaw that the conclave triggered in Indo-Pak bilateral relations. The eight-member nations reaffirmed their commitment towards early resolution of non-tariff barriers and ad valorem duties, promotion of intra-regional long-term investment, conclusion of agreements for Energy Cooperation, Regional Railways and the Indian Ocean Cargo and Passenger Ferry Service and the implementation of the Thimphu Statement on Climate Change. India’s decision to slash the sensitive list for Least Developed Countries under SAFTA from 480 tariff lines to just 25 and to provide zero-basic customs-duty access to all items removed from the list was welcomed by all member-states. Former President of Maldives, Maumoon Abdul Gayoom once stated, “SAARC is now at the threshold of a new dawn, one which opens up new vistas of cooperation, global partnerships and a more robust regional identity.” It remains to be seen if SAARC seizes the opportunities of the 21st century and emerges as a crucible of modern political thought and steady economic growth. (The author is a freelance journalist) December 2011

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INDIA AND THE

EURO CRISIS

HE TWO-year-old Eurozone crisis has now entered a dangerous phase. The European sovereign debt crisis has grown into one of the biggest challenges the European Union (EU) has faced in recent times. European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso recently described it as “the most serious challenge of a generation”. Already two high-profile Prime Ministers of the Eurozone have become victims of this crisis and Eurocrats have taken charge of Greece and Italy. The debt crisis pressure helped oust Greece’s George Papandreou who has been replaced by former European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Lucas Papademos. Similarly, in Italy Silvio Berlusconi’s government has been replaced by a technocratic government under the former European Commissioner Mario Monti. For the moment, these developments might give the illusion of some change and stability, but the basic Eurozone problems remain intact. The EU faces a fundamental challenge today, which has no easy answers. European policymakers have realised that it is www.geopolitics.in

difficult to run a system with a single monetary policy and 27 different fiscal policies. So, unless member states transfer significant fiscal sovereignty to the supranational institutions of the EU, the Eurozone crisis is not going to disappear any time soon. And chances of that happening in the immediate future are almost negligible. Interestingly, some of the peripheral countries, particularly Greece, Ireland and Portugal, which experienced the debt crisis in 2010, were among the bestperforming countries in terms of growth within the EU over the decade proceeding the crisis. The introduction of a single currency led to a sharp fall in real interest rates, especially in these peripheral countries as nominal interest rates converged to low German levels. The credibility of these countries increased as they joined the single currency after fulfilling the so-called Convergence Criteria, which included low fiscal deficits (3 per cent of the GDP), low government debt (60 per cent of the GDP), low inflation, low interest rates and stable exchange rate. Further, they also agreed to follow

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indaily.wordpress.com

With Europe becoming an important destination for crossborder investments and overseas acquisitions for Indian companies, there have been serious negotiations between India and the European Union for broad-based bilateral trade and investment agreements. However, under an increasingly uncertain European economic climate, it is becoming clear that bilateral deals will not be ready for signature in the next EU-India summit scheduled early next year, writes GULSHAN SACHDEVA

December 2011

g DIPLOMACY OMINOUS SIGNS: The severe economic crisis has dropped the wind out of the sails of the European economic system

the Growth and Stability Pact, which was meant to be continuing to follow these rules. With the improvement in credibility, many west European banks expanded into these peripheral countries. As households and firms borrowed heavily to reap benefits of growth and enjoy perspective gains in wealth, demand for credit expanded. The surge in demand for borrowing met with relaxation of credit supply. During this period, housing prices boomed in all of these countries. Compared to other sectors, construction and financial services grew disproportionately. As a result of the high economic activity, there was also an increase in government tax revenues. Rapid growth in the peripheral countries provided a good export market for countries like Germany. As rapid growth led to increased demand for imports, there were large deficits in current accounts, which was managed with easy external finance. However, the 2007-08 global financial crisis led to the deterioration of growth performance in the West. As financial tensions led to disruptions in credit, the fiscal and financial burden of the past became unbearable. The revelations that Greek fiscal deficit was much higher than previously reported focused attention on Greek debt and later also raised doubts about Portuguese, Irish and even Italian debts. To tackle the issue, the European political elite initiated many unprecedented measures. Along with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Euro area member states provided financial support to affected countries in the form of pooled bilateral loans. This included a €110-billion package to Greece; €85-billion assistance to Ireland and €78-billion financing for Portugal. A second bailout package for Greece worth €109 billion was also agreed with easier repayment terms from the private lenders. While doing so, the EU has effectively abandoned the “no bailout” clause of the Lisbon Treaty. It also first established €440billion European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF). Its mandate is to raise funds in capital markets to provide loans to euro area member states, which are experiencing difficulty in obtaining financing at reasonable rates. The EFSF may also www.geopolitics.in

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December 2011

g intervene in the debt primary market. Now with Italian problems, as the combined debt levels of peripheral countries reach more than €3000 billion, there are discussions of the expansion of the EFSF to €I000 billion. However, realising these funds is going to be a huge task. To strengthen economic policy coordination in the euro area, member states have also agreed for European Semester and the Euro-Plus Pact. These are basic measures to encourage coordination and peer reviewing economic and fiscal plans of individual member states. The European semester is a cycle of economic policy coordination to be launched from the next year. It is a six-month period every year during which the member states’ budgetary and structural policies will be reviewed to detect any inconsistencies and emerging imbalances. Euro-Plus pact is a new grouping of 17 Eurozone countries plus Bulgaria, Denmark, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Romania. They have agreed for concrete commitments to a list of political reforms, which are intended to improve the fiscal strength and competitiveness of each country. Europe has further decided to establish a permanent crisis resolution mechanism, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) in order to safeguard the euro and financial stability in Europe. ESM will build on the existing institutions by mid-2013. Many scholars and policymakers have also argued for the creation of common Eurobonds backed by all 17 Euro-area nations. Now the Commission has indicated that it will present options for the introduction of Eurobonds soon. But analysts have already warned that whatever the variant, Eurobonds will only make sense if there is a serious coordination in fiscal affairs and even then only when public debt levels are low. The average expected debt levels in 2012 in the Eurozone are likely to be about 90 per cent of its GDP with level in Greece reaching 166 per cent and in Italy and Ireland closer to 120 per cent of their GDP. These are much beyond the 60 per cent levels agreed under the convergence criteria. In these circumstances, Charles Wyplosz, Professor of International Economics at the Graduate Institute, Geneva, and one of the leading economists on European integration, writes that in contrast to the extreme clarity of the market’s message, the raft of declarations from policymakers suggests that: www.geopolitics.in

panorama.citizens-of-europe.eu

DIPLOMACY

UP IN ARMS: People in countries across Eurozone have been hit hard by the economic downturn

They still do not understand how dan-

gerous the situation is; or They do not understand what they need to do, or They are unwilling to do what they know must be done. As a result, the European economic situation still remains murky. European attempts to run a common monetary policy without a single fiscal policy is not working. In the last few weeks before going to press, there were many reports indicating preparations for a possible Greek exit from the Eurozone. Euro as a currency may not collapse but there is a serious possibility of a Eurozone breakup with one or more countries voluntarily abandoning the single currency or forced to exit. Already, the European Council has agreed to amend the Lisbon Treaty to provide a legal basis for a

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permanent mechanism to resolve euro debt crises. This amendment will enter into force only if approved by the all EU members according to their own constitutional requirements and procedures. Soon the EU might face a situation where a country leaves or is forced to leave the economic and monetary union. This is going to be a highly challenging situation for the EU, both legally and practically. ECB studies have shown that while negotiated withdrawal would, perhaps, be possible, unilateral withdrawal will be highly controversial and forced expulsion would be almost impossible. As the EU is India’s biggest economic partner, India has reasons to be worried. Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said recently: “If the Eurozone crisis prolongs, growth in exports will be impacted.” But it is not simply a matter of changes in a December 2011

g DIPLOMACY

few trade statistics. In the last 20 years, rising India’s global vision of a democratic, multi-cultural and multi-polar world has somehow coincided with Europe. Similarly, when the new economic and security architecture is evolving in Asia, Europe’s engagement with it will be incomplete without partnering with India. Realising the importance, both have established the institution of annual summit meetings (supplemented by business summits) that have resulted in the India-EU Strategic Partnership as well as Joint Action Plans. With more than $90 billion bilateral trade, the EU is India’s major trade partner. India’s trade in services with the EU has also grown from about €8 billion in 2004 to about €18 billion in 2010. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) from the countries of the EU is higher than investments from the USA and Japan put together. Similarly, Europe is also becoming an important destination for cross-border investments and overseas acquisitions www.geopolitics.in

for Indian companies. Encouraged by positive trends, both are seriously negotiating for a broad-based bilateral trade and investment agreement. Traditionally, economic relations have always been core of India-EU ties. The continuing Eurozone crisis has affected them adversely. Already negotiations on bilateral trade deal have taken much longer than expected and missed many deadlines. Under an increasingly uncertain European economic climate it is becoming clearer that bilateral deal will not be ready for signature for the next EU India summit scheduled early next year. At a broader level, this present crisis is part of the global turbulence that began in 2007. It started with a sub-prime crisis in the US, became a global banking crisis, turned into a global recession, and now has become a sovereign debt crisis in Europe. This crisis, however, has not just challenged the European economic integration project, it also has serious implications for its other global ambitions.

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In the last two decades, Europe had two major projects — enlargement of the EU from 15 to 27 and successful introduction of the euro. After its failure to establish a constitutional treaty in 2003 (because of negative referendums in France and the Netherlands) the European elite was successful in pushing the Lisbon Treaty in 2007. The idea behind this treaty was to prepare the EU institutions for an enlarged Union, make its decisions more democratic and above all, raising its profile in the world, through a newly created European External Action Service and through a new position of High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. Already, the example of an integrated Europe had a powerful appeal to economic policymakers in many parts of the world. The way EU was successfully managing itself, the Europeans also wanted to propagate the concept of “soft power”. It means that in the area of foreign policy, countries could rely more on political and economic tools than on military tools. This was in sharp contrast to the American way of managing foreign affairs through military power. However, with the onset of the present crisis, many of these ambitious projects have gone into the background. With only one per cent of Union GDP as its budget (out of which 70 per cent went for agricultural and regional subsidies) the EU institutions did not have many resources to fund any of its global projects. In the next few years, Europe will be extremely busy in solving its own economic problems. Even in the past, Indian policymakers have been skeptical of Europe’s role as a major strategic player in Asia. Apart from economic issues, India’s partnership with the EU is still at a “dialogue” level. The reason is that because of the unique nature of the European project, the EU is not able to move strongly on sensitive issues with India. The India-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA) could have given some new momentum to bilateral ties. Now with the absence of even an FTA, the danger, as Shashi Tharoor wrote recently, is: “India could write off Europe as charming but irrelevant, a continent ideal for a summer holiday, not for serious business.” (The author is Associate Professor at the Centre for European Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University) December 2011

GEOPOLITICS

Right Angle

WHY AFGHANISTAN MATTERS

F LATE, one has been witnessing an interesting development in India’s strategic sphere. Some influential analysts are questioning the Indian policy in Afghanistan. They think that India is wasting its resources in a country which historically has never been under any power’s control. If the mighty British and Russians bled profusely in the past and the “almighty” Americans are badly wounded now in Afghanistan, these pundits are asking what the hell is India planning to do there? They would like India to abandon all its interests in Afghanistan and leave that country to the whims and fancies of Pakistan, which, they think has a more legitimate role there. Since Pakistani policymakers feel likewise — for them Afghanistan accounts for Pakistan’s socalled strategic depth — the Indian pundits argue that if India abandons Afghanistan, ties between New Delhi and Islamabad will improve considerably. Prakash The timing of this new thinking on Afghanistan is quite interesting, coming as it does in the wake of a series of unilateral concessions that India has offered to Pakistan recently: helping Pakistan win the hard-fought elections to the United Nations Security Council as a non-permanent member and agreeing at the World Trade Organisation to the European Union’s special trade concessions for Pakistan, even though the items on which Pakistan will be deriving concessions in European markets compete against similar items from India, mainly textiles. The current phase of India’s active engagements with Afghanistan began some time around 2001. That such dissenting voices are coming after 10 years is quite noteworthy. Of course, the dissent is that of a miniscule minority. But this minority is quite influential and is very friendly to the present official establishment in Delhi. And that makes one wonder whether the dissent is a “trial balloon” that India’s Ministry of External Affairs floats from time to time to gauge the public mood on sensitive issues. Only two months back, India and Afghanistan had signed the “Strategic Partnership Agreement”. India, with a commitment of $1.2 billion through 2013, is already the sixth-largest donor to Afghanistan; in fact, it is Afghanistan’s biggest regional donor. It has been involved in diverse development projects in infrastructure, education and agriculture. From building a parliament house, to a highway to Iran, India has been exerting what is said to be its “soft power” to win hearts and minds in Afghanistan. The latest “agreement” would make India also assist “as mutually determined, in the training, equipping and capacity- building programmes for the Afghan National Security Forces”. In addition, the two countries will hold a regular strategic

www.geopolitics.in

dialogue “with the aim of intensifying mutual efforts towards strengthening regional peace and security”. Significantly, India also signed two MoUs for the development of minerals and natural gas in Afghanistan, which is said to hold mineral deposits worth $1 trillion. There are four principal reasons why Afghanistan is important to India. First, if Afghanistan comes under total control of the fundamentalist forces again, then as was seen in 1990s, virulently anti-India terrorist groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba, Harkat-ul-Mujahideen/ Harkat-ul-Ansar and Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami will be greatly emboldened to deepen their activities in Kashmir and other parts of the country. Secondly, it is in a “friendly” Afghanistan that India can deny Pakistan its so-called strategic depth. Pakistan wants to banish India from Afghanistan and install a puppet regime in Kabul. Pakistan’s ruling establishment is quite vocal about this approach and insists that the international community must accede to its demand. Those in India Nanda who agree with this theory do not realise the dangers involved. Besides, if a relatively more powerful neighbour demands to have a regime of its choice in the lesser powerful neighbour, then logic demands that regimes in all the South Asian capitals, including Islamabad must be of New Delhi’s choice! After all, developments in Pakistan affect India as well. Thirdly, Afghanistan is a treasure trove of mineral deposits, including vast quantities of industrial metals such as lithium, gold, cobalt, copper and iron. As a rising economy and power India, like China, must be there in the race for resource-development. The Chinese are already present in a big way. India cannot lag behind. Those in India who argue about what business India has to extract resources in Afghanistan when it is not managing its own mineral resources well at home are missing a vital point that intelligent powers want to save as much as possible the resources under their own soil for future exigencies. That is why the United States, one of the largest depositors of petroleum resources, imports oil from countries spread out from South America to Africa. Finally, if India is to be seen as a global power, it must be an effective regional power to begin with. All told, Afghanistan is a SAARC country, not a country outside the region. If it abandons Afghanistan now just because the American troops are not going to be there, it will virtually bring back the situation prevailing not so long ago when it was seen with and compared to Pakistan. Undeniably, India’s presence in Afghanistan has Pakistan-specific utility, but there is more to that. It is also about India’s emergent ability to influence beyond its extended strategic neighbourhood.

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prakashnanda@newsline.in December 2011

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