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A TRADE-CORRIDOR WE ARE NOFROM LONGER GUJARAT A MERETO TACTICAL CHINA THROUGH AIR FORCE LADAKH

geopolitics Vol VI, Issue V, IV,OCTOBER SEPTEMBER 2015 2015 n `100 n `100

IAN CE D IN FOR L A R I I C A PE S

DEFENCE n DIPLOMACY n SECURITY

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Systems using directed-energy that can damage, disrupt and destroy enemy personnel and property will determine the outcome of future wars

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CONTENTS

RULING THE AIR

PIB

US DOD

India has emerged as a leading aerospace power that has made impressive strides in space, missile, and aviation technology. The IAF, however, must increasingly invest in stealth jets and UCAVs, as well as standoff and smart weapons that incorporate stealth technology to project its power in distant regions of interest.

INTERVIEW (P20) UAV FLEET Air Chief Marshal Arup Raha, in an interview, talks about how the Indian Air Force today is confidently moving ahead to acquire state-of-the-art cutting edge technology.

(P32)

The unmanned aerial machines are getting more prominence in the current scenario of warfare as they are getting faster, smarter and more efficient at everything they are asked to do.

VOL VI, ISSUE V, October 2015 Editor-in-Chief

K SRINIVASAN Editor

PRAKASH NANDA Photo Editor

H Câ&#x20AC;&#x2C6;TIWARI

Managing Editor

TIRTHANKAR GHOSH Staff Photographer

HEMANT RAWAT

Consulting Editor

M MURLIDHARAN

Director (Corporate Affairs)

RAJIV SINGH

Correspondent

NAVEED ANJUM

Director (Marketing)

RAKESH GERA

Senior Proof Reader

Designers

RAJESH VAID MOHIT KANSAL, NAGENDER DUBEY

Legal Advisor

VASU SHARMA

Subscription

ALKA SHARMA

Distribution

PANKAJ, BHUSAN

Conceptualised and designed by Newsline Publications Pvt. Ltd., from D-11 Basement, Nizamuddin East, New Delhi -110 013, Tel: +91-11-41033381-82 for NEWSEYE MEDIA PVT. LTD. All information in GEOPOLITICS is derived from sources we consider reliable. It is passed on to our readers without any responsibility on our part. Opinions/ views expressed by third parties in abstract or in interviews are not necessarily shared by us. Material appearing in the magazine cannot be reproduced in whole or in part(s) without prior permission. The publisher assumes no responsibility for material lost or damaged in transit. The publisher reserves the right to refuse, withdraw or otherwise deal with all advertisements without explanation. All advertisements must comply with the Indian Advertisements Code. The publisher will not be liable for any loss caused by any delay in publication, error or failure of advertisement to appear. Owned and published by K Srinivasan, 4C Pocket-IV, Mayur Vihar, Phase-I, Delhi-91 and printed by him at Shivam Printographics (P) Ltd, 163, DSIDC Shed, Okhla Indl Area Ph-1, New Delhi -110020 Readers are welcome to send their feedback at geopolitics@newsline.in

October 2015 www.geopolitics.in

BOEING

SALUTING THE GUARDIANS OF THE INDIAN SKIES

IAF

AEROSPACE POWER (P36) Progress in developing tactical missiles, Ballistic Missile Defence (BDM) system, missile seekers, radars, Electronic Warfare (EW) equipment, jet trainers and fighter aircraft has made India an emerging aerospace power.

SPECIAL FORCES (P12) India does not lack brave men and officers, but what it does not currently possess is the right blend of political will, politico-military-intelligence integration and specialised technology that make special operations possible

A TRADE-CORRIDOR WE ARE NOFROM LONGER GUJARAT A MERETO TACTICAL CHINA THROUGH AIR FORCE LADAKH

geopolitics Vol VI, Issue V, IV,OCTOBER SEPTEMBER 2015 2015 n `100 n `100

IAN E INDFORC L AIR PECIA S

DEFENCE n DIPLOMACY n SECURITY

www.geopolitics.in

A DIVIDED NATION (P67) The Indian position on the ongoing promulgation of the new Constitution in Nepal and the resultant agitation has been a difficult one. While welcoming the progress in Constitution-making, it has urged for flexibility.

Systems using directed-energy that can damage, disrupt and destroy enemy personnel and property will determine the outcome of future wars

The total number of pages in this issue is 76 Cover Design: Mohit Kansal

The Indian Air Forceâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Hawk advanced jet trainer is a compelling story of success, providing the new generation training to the next generation air warriors and delivering our commitment to Make in India in partnership with Hindustan Aeronautics Limited. On the 83rd Indian Air Force Day, we are excited to witness the Hawk take off for the new Surya Kiran Aerobatic Team, representing the speed, agility and precision of the Indian Air Force. Flown by a number of aerobatic teams, the Hawk is a remarkably flexible aircraft meeting the demands of modern air forces for both training and operational missions.



LETTERS TO EDITOR

COVER STORY

STRIKING AT LIGHT’S SPEED Directed-Energy Weapons can transform “Future War”, writes JOSEPH NORONHA

Boeing YAL-1

ne Laser g YAL-1 Airbor was a The Boein ns system Testbed weapo Chemical Oxygen lass ted inside megawatt-c (COIL) moun A high00F. Iodine Laser Boeing 747-4 a test a modified to intercept ing was used laser y the follow energ ry 2010 and two test target in Januassfully destroyed mme the progra month, succe Funding for and the missiles. 2010 was cut in lled was cance programme ber 2011 in Decem

n March 23, 1983, US President Ronald Reagan unveiled the sweeping Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) programme that offered the tantalising prospect of killing hostile Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) in flight using ground or space-based X-ray lasers. The mind-boggling project, derisively nicknamed “Star Wars”, was abandoned after two decades of effort and an estimated expenditure of over $35 billion. And in 1996, the United States and Israel got together to urgently develop a futur-

MDA

istic weapon called the Tactical High Energy Laser (THEL). It was needed to intercept hundreds of rockets that were being fired by Hezbollah guerrillas into northern Israel. After spending more than $300 million over a period of about 10 years the experimental weapon was shelved, mainly because of its cost, bulk, vulnerability, and unconvincing results in simulated live situations. However, this time Directed-energy Weapons (DEW) may truly be ready to herald a new dawn in military affairs because for the first time there is a func-

tional weapon active in a combat zone. In December 2014, the US Navy deployed its Laser Weapon System (LaWS) aboard the USS Ponce, a transport ship operating in the Persian Gulf. Capable of taking pot-shots at small boats and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV), LaWS merges six commercial cutting lasers and points them simultaneously at the same target. The weapon can be operated by one sailor and it also doubles as a telescope or range finder. It is the world’s only such device. A Directed-Energy Weapon emits

September 2015 www.geopolitics.in

efer to “Striking at Light’s Speed” (Geopolitics September 2015). Your magazine always brings out some of the cutting edge technologies that will become most important for any military to win future wars. The September Cover Story is among one such that focuses on the new laser weapon technology. The author has rightly said that the ‘Directed-Energy Weapons can transform Future War.’

efer to “Numbers Game “33 per cent women in police forces” (Geopolitics September 2015). The idea of reservation for women in police forces nationwide is most absurd. Think if a woman got a police job just because of reservation but otherwise not fit – can she perform her duties as police woman? Definitely no. Then why reservation? Even suggestions for compulsory reservation for women at all or in many places including politics and corporate world and in services are also absurd. In fact no one can stop any capable woman to elevate to the desired position. There is no need of special privilege like women reservation. Those women who are capable of it need no reservation, as already on

highly-focused energy, transferring that energy to a target to damage it. According to the US Defence Department, DEW is defined as a “weapon or system that uses directed energy to incapacitate damage or destroy enemy equipment, facilities and/or personnel.” This energy may be in the form of lasers, microwaves, electromagnetic radiation, radio waves, sound or particle beams. However, particle-beam weapons technically are not DEWs because they use micro-projectiles. High-power Lasers (HPL) and High-

power Microwaves (HPM) show the most promise in war-fighting applications. It is impossible to evade an accurately aimed laser or microwave DEW because the beam travels at the speed of light. There is no weapon recoil and negligible effect of gravity, wind and other factors that affect conventional projectiles. Unlike missiles, bombs or other munitions, directed-energy systems may be used to simply disable the electronics in vehicles, temporarily disrupt power supplies or force crowds to disperse using directed heat or sound.

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While some microwave weapons merely produce unpleasant but nonlethal physiological effects others can be focused to destroy unshielded electronics or to degrade and deflect missile guidance systems. HPM can be used to emit electrically-powered pulses of radiation over a wide angle making it possible to cripple enemy electronic systems in a desired area without wreaking physical destruction. The US Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) has developed the cruise missile-based “CHAMP” HPM weapon, which can simultaneous-

September 2015

The Cover Story manages to enlighten us on how directed-energy weapons (DEW) may truly be ready to herald a new dawn in military affairs because for the first time there is a functional weapon active in a combat zone. Countries like US, Russia and China have already developed or are developing such weapon systems to bring the battlefield to a new dimension. The US Navy plans to capitalise on

NUMBERS GAME

192

ceasefire violations in 2015

92 ceasefire violations by Pakistani Rangers have been recorded along the International Border in Jammu and Kashmir till July 26 this year. These are the official figures, according to the government in the Lok Sabha. “In 2015, till July 26, there were 192 cease-

fire violations along the international border in J&K which resulted in the death of three civilians and one BSF personnel”, Minister of State for Home Affairs Haribhai Parathibhai Chaudhary said in a written reply. “22 people were injured while 7,110 persons were temporar-

37%

lakh FICN seized

ily affected and 50 houses were damaged”, he said. “Last year, there were 430 ceasefire violations that killed 14 people, including 12 civilians and two BSF personnel, besides affecting 2.08 lakh people”, Chaudhary said. “There were 148 ceasefire violations that killed two BSF personnel in 2013. In 2012, as many as 21 such violations were witnessed that killed one civilian and two BSF personnel”, the Minister said.

of minor ports defenceless

SF seized Fake Indian Currency Notes (FICN) of face value 2 lacs close to the Indo-Bangladesh border at Bagdah in North 24-Parganas. A woman, who carried the notes up to the border, managed to escape towards Bangladesh on being challenged by the troops. She had thrown packet and ran away towards Bangladesh. The packet contained 200 fake notes of face value `1,000 each. Over the last few months, it has been noticed that smugglers are using routes in Murshidabad, Nadia and North 24-Parganas as well.

33%

women in police forces

ccording to an Intelligence Bureau (IB) report, 37% of minor ports in India were absolutely defenceless and a Parliamentary Committee has expressed its shock over the report. The committee has said that the report should act as

he government is planning to make up 33 per cent of women in police force in Delhi and other Union Territories by the end of NDA’s term in 2019, Minster of State for

an “alarm bell” for the government, especially at those ports which are located along the coastline of Gujarat and Maharashtra. “The committee is shocked to note that according to the Ministry of Home Affairs, out of 203 non-major/minor ports, 45 are non-operational while 75 have no security force even for name sake to guard them. Further, many of these non-operational ports are used as fish landing points/jetties and this list includes 49 non-major ports.

Home Affairs Kiren Rijiju said. Rijiju added that the all-women police stations or mahila thanas, of which India has 518 currently, “won’t work” in increasing the number of women in the force.

138 police personnel per lakh of population

HC TIWARI

ccording to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), India has a very poor policepeople ratio. In 2013, India’s ratio of 138 police personnel per lakh of population was the fifth lowest among the 71 countries, as per the UNODC report. It is argued that the Indian police system designed in 1861 was best suited for colonial rule and doesn’t meet the requirements of a modern welfare state. The already understaffed system is also hit by many vacancies. The answer to a recent question in Parliament revealed that as on January 2014, there was a shortfall of 5.6 lakh police personnel against the sanctioned strength of 22.8 lakh or about 25 per cent vacancy.

HC TIWARI

www.geopolitics.in

September 2015

their own strength they are holding certain top positions in almost all fields including the corporate world. Yes, unless women are recognised for their achievements like men, no country can make progress. Some

its positive experience with the small device aboard the USS Ponce by awarding a contract for a 150-kilowatt laser DEW, and it could be ready as early as 2018. On the other hand, the US Air Force hopes to test a high-power laser on a future version of its Lockheed AC-130 gunship within the next couple of years. If all goes well, about ten years from now even aircraft like the stealthy fifth-generation Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter might sport versatile laser weapons. The author has also given an Indian perspective in the Laser DEWs development. In the next 20 years from now, IAF pilots may be flying the Sukhoi/Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) or Perspective Multi-role Fighter (PMF) armed with laser DEWs. I really appreciate your work. Indranil, Cochin

nations and societies are still backward because their women are not given the due respect or the opportunities. A lot of young women are now discovering their own strengths. Women are more liberated than before, they are competing as equal with men, and doing exceptionally well in most walks of life. The more women should come forward to take on new challenges, one hope that society and the State will help them in attaining success but not through reservations which implies that the position achieved by her is not due to merit. It is undesirable for efficiency and success of a person, society and nation. Mahesh Kumar, New Delhi

October 2015 www.geopolitics.in

NUMBERS GAME

192

ceasefire violations in 2015

37%

lakh FICN seized

of minor ports defenceless

33%

women in police forces

he government is planning to make up 33 per cent of women in police force in Delhi and other Union Territories by the end of NDA’s term in 2019, Minster of State for

Home Affairs Kiren Rijiju said. Rijiju added that the all-women police stations or mahila thanas, of which India has 518 currently, “won’t work” in increasing the number of women in the force.

138 police personnel per lakh of population

HC TIWARI

www.geopolitics.in

September 2015

efer to Numbers Game “192 ceasefire violations in 2015” (Geopolitics September 2015). Sadly Indian policy for Pakistan is ‘you continue unprovoked attacks-firing in our border territory resulting in killing of our civilians and we shall continue our peace talks with you.’ “Pak has become ‘Paapistan”: said noted cleric and Vice President of All India Muslims Personal Law Board (AIMPLB) Maulana Kalbe Sadiq. The continuous proxy war by Pakistan against India killing even Indian civilians at the Line of Control and continuous infiltration of terrorists trained by InterService Intelligence (ISI) of Pakistan proves that it is not interested in peace talks with India. Under these circumstances how are cordial relations even feasible? Pakistan is a proven enemy of India. Pakistan is proving, “Hum nahi sudhrenge”. PM Modi must take much bolder and stricter action than just retaliating the attacks. All political and diplomatic relations must be cut off for all time to come till Pakistan proves its worth to have meaningful relations with India. Mahesh Kapasi, New Delhi

All correspondence may be addressed to: Editor, Geopolitics, D-11 Basement, Nizamuddin East, New Delhi-110013. Or mail to: geopolitics@newsline.in

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PANORAMA

FINDING A SUCCESSOR TO THE U-2

The U-2 spy plan e was first constr ucted at Lockheed Martin ’s Skunk Works in 1955 and went on to become one of the most important intelligence, surveillance and reconnaiss ance (ISR) aircraft of the Cold War.

Used extensively during the Cold War years by the US, the stealthy reconnaissance aircraft U-2 will reach the end of its service life in 2019. Though the US Air Force is not currently seeking a replacement, but Lockheed Martin is getting ready with a replacement and recently showcased its vision of the Tactical Reconnaissance X (TR-X) concept aircraft. Announced in August this year to mark the 60th anniversary of the U-2 programme, the TR-X will have many features of the U-2 and additionally operate for a long time in what the military terms as contested airspace. Geopolitics takes a look at the TR-X

Ø Designated the TR-X, the concept aircraft is an improved, stealthier version of the 60-year-old design and could enter service in 10 years.

Ø The TR-X currently exists only as a proposal and a conceptual drawing but it could enter service around 2025 if there is interest. October 2015 www.geopolitics.in

Ø One key change is that the TR-X could be a pilotless operation. This is a feature that is advantageous in missions that are too dangerous for a pilot.

PANORAMA With a wingspa n of 103 ft (31 m ) and a cruise speed of 475 mph (764 km/h), the U-2 carries a payload of 5,00 0 lb (2,268 kg) and can climb to its cruising altitude of over 70,000 ft (21,000 m) in a little over 45 minutes .

Ø According to Lockheed, at this altitude the spy plane can maintain surveillance over a wide area from a position outside of hostile borders while providing longer line-of-sight data links.

The U-2 provided reconnaissance in major international cr isis involving the United States and was thrust into the pu blic eye in 1960 when a CIA U-2A piloted by Gary Powers was shot down over the Soviet Union .

U-2 is one of th e few aircraft of its vintage still in active service with th e United States Air Forc e but Lockheed has now unveiled details of its possible successor.

Ø The TR-X will be cheaper than the U-2 and offer a number of improvements. The TR-X will have a smaller radar profile, as well as better survivability and open missions systems architecture. It will carry new sensors, support systems, and possibly laser weapons. www.geopolitics.in

October 2015

Despite an extremely succ essful career, the U-2 will reach the end of its se rvice life in 2019. The U S Air Force isn’t currently se eking a replacement, bu t Lockheed belie ves it will.

Ø On September 14 at the US Air Force Association's annual symposium, Lockheed displayed its vision of the Tactical Reconnaissance X (TR-X) concept aircraft. First announced in August to mark the 60th anniversary of the U-2 programme, the TR-X retains many features of the U-2, such as a similar airframe, the same F118 GE 101 engine, and the same cruising altitude, payload, speed, and climb rate.

ATOMIC BULLETIN

Tough Australian nuclear googly to India T

he Australian Parliament’s Joint Standing Committee on Treaties (JSCOT) in its report on the Australia-India Nuclear Cooperation Agreement has made key recommendations:  India has achieved the full separation of civil and military nuclear

Learning Russian for better nuclear co-op

ndian engineers at the Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant (KNPP) have started learning Russian in order to interact seamlessly with their eastern European colleagues on technical issues and to maintain a smooth flow of work. A batch of 25 engineers and representatives from KNPP management has completed a two-month basic course in Russian. After receiving a request from KNPP, the RCSC recommended C Parameswaran, an expert in Russian language, to train the engineers and other employers of the KNPP. Classes were held regularly for two months and 25 representatives of management and engineers from KNPP completed the basics in reading, writing, listening and speech communication.

facilities as verified by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).  India has established an independent nuclear regulatory authority.  The Indian nuclear regulator’s existing policies and arrangements have been reviewed to ensure its independence.

 The frequency, quality and comprehensiveness of onsite (safety) inspections at nuclear facilities have been verified by the IAEA as being best practice standard.  The lack of sufficient planning for the decommissioning of nuclear facilities has been rectified.

More reactors for India

ndia is planning to import 28 light water reactors totalling 35,000 mwe to beef up the country’s nuclear power programme, said atomic energy commission chairperson, R K Sinha. This was detailed by Sinha during the fifth H N Sethna memorial lecture where he said that in addition to importing light water reactors, India was also designing its own reactors

of the type. According to Sinha, the availability of uranium within the country had considerably shot up in the last one year and the figure now stood at 2.16 lakh tonnes. He also added that currently there were 21 nuclear power plants in the country while four were under construction taking the total power through these facilities to 2,800 mwe.

Incidentally one of the sites where the imported light water reactors will be installed is Jaitapur in Maharashtra, a project which is yet to take off.

Boon in the nuclear power generation Sri Lankan

s per a new report by the World Nuclear Association, global power generation capacity should grow by more than 45 per cent over the next 20 years and a new pipeline of uranium mines will be needed after 2025. According to the report, global nuclear capacity will grow to 552 gigawatts equivalent (GWe) by 2035 from 379 GWe or roughly 11 per cent of world

electricity supply at the moment. The report has also mentioned that the Fukushima disaster in Japan has changed the outlook for nuclear power around the world but despite this “many countries are putting more emphasis on satisfying environmental and security of supply objectives in their energy strategies, which should favour increased nuclear power”. The prospects for building new reactors continue to be strong in China, India and Korea as well as in a number of countries in the EU and the Middle East, but electricity demand growth in countries where nuclear power is wellestablished continues to be slow.

October 2015 www.geopolitics.in

nuclear power generation plan

n its long-term generation plan, Sri Lanka’s Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) has included a 600 megawatt nuclear power plant as an option for power generation. However, the country’s capacity of the present system is considerably small to accommodate a nuclear power plant. The cabinet approval, however, has been given to consider nuclear power as an option to meet future energy demands as well as consider nuclear power in the generation planning exercise and to carry out a pre-feasibility study on the Nuclear Option.

ATOMIC BULLETIN

These stipulations are for the most part unexpected and will irritate India. It would also be quite unprecedented to bring an agreement into force and then apply further preconditions for the fulfilment of its primary purpose: the sale of uranium. The better treatymaking practice would be to fix these matters prior to entry into force as urged by a

minority of JSCOT members. Other recommendations:  More ‘diplomatic resources’ be devoted to encourage India to join the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.  Australia should ‘consider’ facilitating negotiations to slow the nuclear arms race in South Asia.  The Government outlines the legal advice it has

received including on the compatibility of the Agreement with Australia’s obligations under the South Pacific Nuclear Weapons Free Zone Treaty. The Government generally holds its legal advice to be confidential and so is unlikely to reveal the full advice it has received on these matters.

US offered Pakistan $5 bn to stop nuke tests Lockheed nuclear

ccording to Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, he had rejected $5 billion offered by then US President Bill Clinton to prevent Pakistan from conducting nuclear tests. As reported by Daily Sabah, PM Sharif said the US, on numerous times, attempted to persuade him to stop nuclear tests, but he refused the offer for

“the honour and interest” of Pakistan. PM Sharif’s comments have come as the US Congress debates a nuclear agreement reached between Iran and six world powers, including the United States. The deal is aimed at preventing Iran from building a nuclear weapon. Critics of the deal say it will fail.

Monitoring Iran nukes a hefty business

nternational monitoring of Iran’s nuclear programme could cost $10.5 million per year, according to The Associated Press. Under the nuclear agreement reached in August, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which is affiliated with the United Nations, will be responsible for monitoring Iran’s compliance with certain requirements of the deal. The AP reported it had obtained a document from the IAEA detailing the cost estimates of that effort. The costs are calculated from the time the deal is implemented, which will be sometime after it’s officially adopted on October 18, AP said. AP reported that the deal’s monitoring effort, which would apply for the next 15 years, could total $157 million.

subsidiary fined

ockheed Martin’s whollyowned subsidiary, the Sandia Corporation, has agreed to the US federal government fine of $4.79 million to settle the Justice Department allegations that it had illegally used taxpayers’ money to lobby for an extension of its management contract. The nuclear subsidiary in August agreed to reimburse the Energy Department after allegedly spending federal funds on lobbying instead of national security. The payment by the Sandia Corporation that operates Sandia National Laboratory, resolved claims that the corporation violated two laws that bar such a use of federal funds. The fine followed a restricted-access report by the Energy Department’s inspector general.

Rosatom’s powerful research nuclear reactor

ussia has started the construction of the world’s most powerful fast-neutron nuclear reactor. The multipurpose research reactor called MBIR will be used for nuclear power development projects. The first concrete of the reactor was filled on

www.geopolitics.in

September 11, at the site of the Russian State scientific centre “Research Institute of Nuclear Reactors” (NIIAR, a part of Rosatom’s branch “Science and Innovations”). The reactor will be commissioned in 2020. MBIR is a sodium-cooled fast breeder reactor, the capacity of which will amount to 150 MW”.

October 2015

Russia signs safety agreement

ussia’s Rosatom and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have signed practical agreements on cooperation in radiation safety. IAEA Deputy DirectorGeneral, Head of the Department of Nuclear Safety and Security, Denis Flory and Rosatom’s Deputy CEO Vyacheslav Pershukov put their signatures to the document. “By signing this arrangement Russia has reaffirmed once again its world leadership in using nuclear power,” Pershukov said. “Russia will become the world’s first country to have implemented its risk approach to assessing the radiation effects on personnel.”

Chandrayaan 2 to use nuclear energy

fter the success of Chandrayaan-1, ISRO is assessing the use of nuclear technology to increase the lifespan for complete safety and an extended lifespan of Chandrayaan-2. “We are thinking of powering some parts of Chandrayaan-2 with nuclear power,” said former ISRO Chief Madhavan Nair. The plan is finally being implemented after six years. BARC Director Sekhar Basu confirmed that his organisation had already initiated studies regarding the use of nuclear technology in this mission.

SPOTLIGHT

HOT PURSUIT India does not lack brave men and officers, but what it does not currently possess is the right blend of political will, politicomilitary-intelligence integration and specialised technology that make these operations possible, writes MAYANK SINGH

ndia is gradually seen as net security provider. The recent Human Assistance and disaster relief operations conducted by India have seen the deployment of forces to different parts of the globe. Country is poised to grow economically and in its profile as seen by the world. But this all will depend on the way India handles the

contingent problems both within and outside the country. The need for out of area operations (Special Forces operations) can be perceived from the way the security scenario for India is shaping. The hot pursuit of militants, who had crossed over to Myanmar following the Chandel attack carried out by 21 Para (Special Forces) commandos came

October 2015 www.geopolitics.in

”GENERALLY, IN BATTLE, USE THE NORMAL FORCE TO ENGAGE; USE THE EXTRAORDINARY TO WIN.“ – SUN TZU as a change in the course of military operations. Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore, Minister of State for Information and Broadcasting confirmed that Indian forces had crossed over the boundary to eliminate the anti nationals. But, we require a thorough examination of India’s position, capabilities and about the policy bottlenecks which may not be

SPOTLIGHT SPOTLIGHT

IAF Special Forces Garud Commandos on board an RAF C-130J Hercules aircraft before the para drop over a DZ in the United Kingdom

IAF

proving as support in case of any out of area operation. Our countryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s growth hinges upon a number of domestic and external factors. For a continued economic growth India requires, among others, safety and security of the trading routes, unhindered access to energy supplies, stability among major trading regions

IAFâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s paratroopers during Air Force day parade at Air Force Station, Hindon IAF

Continued on page 16

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October 2015

SPOTLIGHT

Positive Steps

ver the past decade, Special Operations Forces (SOF) have emerged as an increasingly critical component of modern military power. For western democracies, in particular, the frequent use of small, elite, units of clandestine operators has come to be seen as a more effective, discreet, and surgical means of projecting power within deeply contested regions. SOF possesses the ability to act as true force multipliers, conducting key missions with small logistical footprints in austere forward environments. As one recent American doctrinal document notes, “special operations conducted by small SOF units, with unique capabilities and self-sufficiency (for short periods of time) provide the U.S. government with a wide array of military options. These options may generate less liability or risk of escalation than are normally associated with the employment of larger and more visible conventional forces.” But, all this cannot go with the present state of force organisation, training, philosophy and lack of policy. Recasting is required at every stage. Here, the recasting India’s Special Forces will necessarily imply an attitudinal change within India’s civilian leadership, which has traditionally exhibited a somewhat excessive degree of ponderousness when confronted with externally imposed security exigencies. After all, the successful employment of Special Forces hinges, first and foremost, on promptness in decision-making, and on the willingness of security managers to embrace not only the use of force, but also a certain degree of calibrated risk. Special forces Command and an articulated policy can go a long way. The lessons drawn from recent deployments of India naval ships and Air force Aircrafts to evacuate the Indian with the ‘Operation Rahat’ from Yemen being the latest can help in shaping a standard operating procedure which we lack. This can also be a way to forge a formal committee which is empowered to take contingent swift decisions which can prove crucial in the case of any such emergent situation.

An important lesson was learnt post Operation Pawan in Sri Lanka. The lesson from the IPKF experience is that all possible contingencies are not only visualised but also catered for. At the same time, discussing these scenarios with other relevant agencies and departments of the government would help in fine-tuning the scenarios with inputs from multiple sources and debating how they will play out in the short, medium and long terms, thus generating more refined policy options. Unlike in previous decades the National Security Council and its Secretariat is a mechanism in place to discuss such important issues. There is, thus, greater scope for a more comprehensive contingency planning process. There is an urgent need to enhance interservices integration, especially for these kinds of operations. Another critical aspect of such operations which India lacks is a robust intelligence planning and coordination process. With the emergent threat perception, external and internal, intelligence is going to be the game changer in every special operation out of the country. Military intelligence agencies will have to build up expertise (including language proficiency) as well as generate intelligence on a regular basis about countries of interest in the extended neighbourhood so as to not get caught in a blind situation in the case where Indian forces might be called upon to intervene. This lesson was learnt even during Operation Cactus—the Indian military mission to rescue the Maldivian government headed by President Gayoom from a coup d’état. Even basic information about the Maldives was not readily available for the planners of this mission. Major voids exist in strategic intelligence. Dependence on technical intelligence (TECHINT) by itself, as followed in India, cannot meet the national requirements in their entirety. Our areas of strategic interests need to be kept under surveillance through human intelligence (HUMINT), to which Special Forces can be major contributors.Integrated Observation Equipment (IOE), is a Thermal Image Based

October 2015 www.geopolitics.in

System for observation and fire monitoring by Artillery. IOE comprises of, Thermal Imager (TI) provides observation capability Goniometer to get target coordinates, Laser Range Finder (LRF) to get the range, Global Positioning System (GPS) for obtaining self location, Astronomical North Finding Module (ANFM) to find North through celestial objects. It is a heartening feature that GSAT-7, the country's first advanced and fullfledged military communications satellite will provide seamless and futuristic network-centric operations. This gives the user (Navy) a long sweep of intelligence network, or what is called COMINT/ELINT (communication intelligence/ electronic intelligence,) on moving non-land platforms like ships. Also, the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) has successfully launched the second of the string of seven satellites that will comprise the Indian Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System (IRNSS)

ISRO

Regional Navigation Satellite System (IRNSS) which is India’s own GPS. IRNSS will provide geo-spatial coverage of India and its environs in a circle extending roughly about 1,500 km beyond the country's political borders. It will offer accurate all-weather signals for military use. ISRO intends to eventually scale up regional coverage to global by inducting more satellites.

A PEACEFUL SKY THANKS TO THOSE WHO DEFEND IT.

Boeing is proud to salute the Indian Air Force as it celebrates its 83rd anniversary.

SPOTLIGHT

Indian Navyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Marine commandos (MARCOS) in action

IAF's helicopter during J&K flood relief operation

Indian soldier in outdoor drill exercise

IAF

RAFALE FIGHTER AIRCRAFT MOD

Continued from page 13

and the safety of the Indian diaspora which is contributing with remittances that support the economy. According to the latest estimates, about 3 per cent of the countryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s GDP is accounted for by remittances. The primary task for India in the coming decades is to ensure economic growth in order to reduce poverty and to improve its overall socio-economic conditions. This will depend upon access to raw materials, energy, markets and free trade. It follows logically, therefore, that

our economic and strategic interests are no longer just confined to our territorial borders. Also, in addition to the physical safety it will be the responsibility of the Indian Government to evacuate the rising diaspora in cases of conflicts or natural disasters. While there had been very successful Human Assistance and Disaster Relief Operations which have earned praises for the government, it still is way behind to launch a calibrated military operation away from our teritory in case The Case for Out-of-Area Contingency Operations

Chart 1: Types of Out-of- Area Contingencies Out-of-Area Contingency Operations

Peacekeeping

United Nations

Peace Keeping

Humanitarian and Disaster Relief Operation

Regional

Peace Enforcement

International Effort

This chart, and the types of missions described in it, is merely for illustration and it is important to note two additional points. First, there may be situations that blur the lines between the types of contingencies. Therefore, planning, equipping

Military Operations

Unilateral

Single Country

Multilateral

Non Combatant Evacuation Operations

NoteSOctober 2015 1

Bilateral

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This evocative phrase was used by US Secretary of State John Quincy Adams in a speech on US foreign policy delivered at the US House of Representatives

INDIAN NAVY

of any contingency. India does not lack brave men and officers, but what it does not currently possess is the right blend of political will, politico-military-intelligence integration and specialized technology that make these operations possible. Intelligence will be a crucial aspect as it will clinch the success during such operations. Intelligence will have to be sharpened. The biggest stumbling block will be in the lack of area specific intelligence. Worst is to know that there is no policy on area specialization. This removes the possibility of incentivising those who wish to do this. There needs to be a policy which allows the officers and men to build an ethos of specialisation which will go a long way in building key competencies, such as those of area specialists under the Defence Intelligence Agency and linguists. The use of the inputs will be of use to the forces only when they are trained and oriented for special operations. Considerable attention will need to be paid on planning, training and preparation for possible contingencies. This includes the need for better inter-agency functioning, investment in area studies and linguistic training. Logistics will play a crucial role. The operating range of the military will be shaped to a significant extent by logistic supplies. Currently there appears to be little consideration of the logistical chain for possible contingencies.

SPOTLIGHT

IAF

INDIAN AIR FORCE HELICOPTERS DURING IRON FIST EXERCISE

APACHE HELICOPTERS BOEING

The need will be of pre-position stocks in appropriate places and explore the possibilities of signing logistical supply agreements with other countries. The lessons can be learnt from the long history of Indian Military operating in different regions under the UN charter. Taking a leaf from the peacekeeping operations the synergy between the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) and the Armed Forces in conducting these missions need to be enhanced. This has the potential not just for more interaction at places where such missions are conducted but can also have greater diplomatic pay-offs. Hence, there is a need to cross-post and augment the staff both in New Delhi and in the field. We have a variety of Special Forces. The army has eight parachute (special forces) battalions, with another two planned to be raised. The navy has marine commandos (MARCOS) while the air force has named its special forces as the ‘Garud’. The National Security Guard (NSG) functioning under the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) till the 26/11 Mumbai terror attack had two Special Action Groups (SAGs) comprising 100 percent army personnel on deputation, while the two Special Ranger Groups (SRGs) comprising Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF) personnel on deputation are in a support role, primarily to provide cordons. Post 26/11, the NSG has expanded manifold albeit

CHINOOK HELICOPTERS BOEING

with much less contribution from the army, particularly Then there are the Special Groups (SGs) of the Special Frontier Force (SFF) operating directly under the Cabinet Secretariat. We need to keep in mind also that the decision to use capability and to employ our Armed Forces will eventually be taken by our political leaders. Specialised arms and equipments can be identified and procured once it gets a political go ahead. The recent operation in Chandel area of Northeast with the full support of political dispensation hints it to be the right time for the country to move forward with the creation of specialized command to handle any emergent situation which will need special operation by the Special Forces. But, the entire system has to be well caliberated and well synchronized, which is not so at present! An organisation chart has been published by veteran Special Forces officer in the book India’s Special Forces: History and Future of Indian Special Forces. This chart talks of an Indian Special Forces Command which will require reorganisation of all the special forces. Geopolitics has reproduced the charts for our readers’ reference.

October 2015 www.geopolitics.in

SA_TVAF35_Geopolitics_210x274mm.pdf 1 9/23/2015 9:54:11 AM

“THE IAF IS CAPABLE OF UNDERTAKING ANY TASK ASSIGNED BY THE GOVERNMENT” A fighter pilot of great distinction, Air Chief Marshal ARUP RAHA points out how the Indian Air Force today is confidently moving ahead to acquire state-ofthe-art cutting edge technology. At the same time, he tells PRAKASH NANDA how emphasis is also being given to enhance the quality of training by inducting Basic, Intermediate and Advanced Trainers and Simulators and why modernisation of the Operational and Technical Infrastructure is another key focus area. Excerpts from an exclusive interview:

August 2015 www.geopolitics.in

The IAF does not have its authorised strength of 42 fighter squadrons. How are you going to fill this gap?

Presently, IAF has 35 active fighter Squadrons against Government authorised strength of 42 Squadrons. The shortfall in fighter aircraft strength is planned to be made good through induction of the remaining contracted Su30 MKI, LCA, Rafale and other suitable fighter aircraft. IAF expects to achieve the sanctioned strength of 42 Fighter Squadrons by the end of the 14th Plan period.

Is it true that the IAF is also short of fighter pilots? If so, what are the reasons and what steps you are taking to rectify the situation? IAF has no shortages in the officer cadre and has the sanctioned number of fighter pilots to meet all operational tasks.

Are you satisfied with the budgetary allocations for the IAF this year, given the facts that IAF needs more fighter planes, more transports in its fleet, more trainers and more helicopters? Can you throw some light on your procurement plan or acquisition schemes of assets that will make the IAF one of the best fighting forces of the world?

Budgetary constraints are not unique to India; in fact, all Armed Forces across the world face budgetary constraints by virtue of the capital-intensive nature of defence procurement. Based on the budgetary allocations, each Service prioritises its schemes and all schemes are accorded sanction only after confirming the availability of requisite funds. The need for increased allocation has been projected to the Government and we have been assured maximum allocation within the available resources. I believe that the IAF is already one of the most professional and capable Air Forces in the world. However, the nature of threats that India is faced with is continuously evolving. Accordingly, the IAF needs to modernise and enhance its capability. This capability enhancement is being undertaken through a well thought-out plan that involves upgradation of the existing equipment and induction of new weapon platforms and systems. Aircraft like MiG-29, Jaguar, Mirage-2000, An-32 and Mi-17/Mi-17 1V helicopters are being upgraded in a phased manner. The planned inductions include supply of the contracted Su-30 MKI and LCA, Rafale Aircraft, Very Heavy Transport Aircraft, Special

tly moving IAF today is confiden towards path ahead on its growth rt cutting -a acquiring state-of-the e have made dw edge technologies an is regard th very good progress in

Operations aircraft, Attack Helicopters, Heavy Lift Helicopters, Medium Lift Helicopters, Basic and Advanced Trainer aircraft. Short, Medium and Long Range Surface-to-Air Missile systems are also under procurement. A large number of Radars are being acquired to provide adequate Air Defence surveillance. The focus of IAF is to be fully prepared to undertake all types of operations in the most effective manner.

How would you look at both the level of your technological prowess and the calibre of the resources at your command?

IAF today is confidently moving ahead on its growth path towards acquiring state-of-the-art cutting edge technologies and we have made very good progress in this regard. The acquisition of Su30 MKI, Special ops capable C-130J, C-17 Globemaster, New Generation Precision Guided Munitions (NGPGMs), Laser Guided Bomb Kits, Sensor Fused Weapons and Harpoon Anti-Ship missiles have greatly enhanced our all-weather precision strike capability, besides enhancing our strategic reach. These have truly transformed IAF from a tactical force to a regional one. We are capable of undertaking any task assigned to us by the Government.

Is the IAF prepared for a two-front attack from China and Pakistan simultaneously?

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October 2015

Threat and security assessment is a natural and ongoing process for a country to ensure its national security. We are enhancing our capability to meet various multi-dimensional threats that we may have to address in the future. Our modernisation plan and infrastructure development is in sync with our endeavour to retain a ‘Combat and Capability Edge’. IAF’s focus is on its Capability Enhancement and is not country-specific.

Indian Air Force achieved a landmark distinction in May this year by landing a Mirage-2000 fighter jet on the Yamuna Expressway. Are we going to see some more trials like this in the near future?

Feasibility study of identifying stretches of highways where an aircraft can be landed is under process. Subsequently, to enhance such operations, identified stretches would be developed along with the concerned State Government and Central agencies.

After Daulat Beig Oldie landing, the C-130J has made another historic landing at Panagarh. How big a strategic achievement is this concerning the eastern region?

The landing of C-130J at Panagarh is a step towards capability enhancement in our eastern region. Panagarh base provides for quick deployment in the region for any operational requirement.

The IAF undertakes joint exercises with the air forces from friendly countries. What do we gain in the process? I am asking this question in the specific context of the Indo-UK bilateral Air Exercise – Indradhanush IV, which has generated a lot of debate over the Sukhoi vs Typhoon fighters. What would you like to comment on that issue? IAF undertakes bilateral exercises with various friendly foreign countries like the US, UK, France, Oman, UAE, Singapore and Russia. The overall aim of these exercises is to enhance mutual understanding of different Air Forces. It exposes IAF aircrew to near real-time

scenarios under safe and controlled conditions and presents an opportunity for the aircrew to tackle new types of aerial and ground threats in large force engagements. Exercises with friendly foreign countries are carried out in a controlled and simulated environment with mutually agreed Rules of Engagement. Since the actual capability of the participating aircraft is not used fully, such international exercises do not reveal the actual war-time performance of various aircraft. Classic wins/losses in such exercises with friendly foreign Air Forces cannot be quantified. Conduct of such exercises with professional Air Forces of the world establishes interoperability, exposure to best practices in air operations and mutual respect for professionalism amongst air-warriors.

What is the latest on the Rafale deal? We hear that things are not moving at all.

The contract negotiations for the 126 MMRCA had reached a stalemate and the process was not making any headway for almost two years. Realising the critical operational necessity of fighter aircraft in the IAF and likelihood of further delays in concluding the MMRCA contract negotiations, the Government of India decided to procure 36 Rafale aircraft from France through an InterGovernment route. The negotiations for

the procurement of 36 Rafale aircraft from France are in progress.

Do you see an alternate to Rafale fighter?

As of now we are not looking at any alternative to the Rafale aircraft. The Government will take a decision at a suitable time with respect to additional fighter aircraft required by the IAF.

When is the indigenously built Tejas Light Combat Aircraftâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s (LCA) Final Operational Clearance (FOC) expected? How big is this achievement for the IAF?

The Initial Operational Clearance (IOC) of LCA was achieved in December 2013. The documents for the first series production aircraft was handed over to the IAF on January 17, 2015; however, the

t looking As of now we are no Rafale the at any alternative to ent will take m aircraft. The Govern time with e a decision at a suitabl hter aircraft fig l respect to additiona

aircraft is yet to be delivered to the IAF. IAF is ready to form the first LCA Squadron after receipt of the first four LCA, which is now expected in 2016. The Final Operational Clearance (FOC) is expected some time in the middle of next year. The operationalisation of the LCA will be a major milestone not only for the IAF but for the entire Nation.

What are the new technologies that the IAF is opting for?

Modernisation of the IAF is an on-going process based on the concept of capability building. Continuous upgradation of the combat potential of our aircraft, systems and Air Defence network in terms of numbers, lethality, modern sensors and weapons, as well as networking them, along with enhanced airlift and heli-lift capabilities, are planned to meet the future challenges to our security. Emphasis is also being given to enhance the quality of training by inducting Basic, Intermediate and Advanced trainers and Simulators. Modernisation of the Operational and Technical Infrastructure is another key focus area and would provide the required combat support for operations in the future.

What is your take on the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA)? How does it fit in the already crowded fighter acquisition

The Indian Air Force contingent poses for a photograph in front of the Sukhoi-30 and the Typhoon at the close of Ex Indradhanush-IV at RAF Coningsby, United Kingdom

IAF

October 2015 www.geopolitics.in

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IAFâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Mirage 2000 during a historic landing on the Yamuna Expressway IAF

programmes such as the MMRCA, FGFA and of course the LCA, too?

The capability build-up of the IAF is planned on the basis of threat perception. While the operational capability of the IAF depends on the quantity and quality of all its assets and the manpower, the number of combat aircraft Squadrons still remains a major or the main determinant of the Air Forceâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s combat potential. We have initiated the development of our very own Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft called Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA). Since obsolescence management as well as capability enhancement is a continuous process, the AMCA is planned to be inducted when some of our current fighter aircraft are reaching the end of their life.

Could you give us an update on the purchase of 15 47F Chinook heavy-lift helicopters and 22 AH-64D Apache attack helicopters?

IAF is keen to induct Chinook and Apache helicopters. At present, both these schemes are at the contract signing stage.

The IAF still has one of the highest accident rates in the world. This translates

into a loss of between half to one complete squadron of aircraft per year apart from aircrew losses due to injuries or fatalities. How does one reverse this negative trend?

Accident rates in the IAF over the years have reduced to one-third of the rates prevailing in earlier times. In fact, the current decade is the safest period in IAF history. However, every accident is a matter of concern. Courts of Inquiry into the six accidents in the current year are in progress. Preliminary investigations into the accidents is indicative of Human Error (Aircrew) as the most likely cause in two accidents and Technical Defect as the most likely cause in the other four accidents. However, it would be prudent not to speculate on the results, and allow the entire investigation process to be completed. Cause factors that emerge after each Court of Inquiry are factored into the operational and maintenance philosophy of IAF to prevent recurrence of accidents.

All wars on the ground or in the air are fought these days in the digital matrix with real time coordination between different theatres. How is the IAF evolving in this paradigm? The Indian Air Force is continually en-

October 2015 www.geopolitics.in

hancing its capabilities across the entire spectrum of modern day warfare. The IAF has adopted a multi pronged approach to achieve the desired level of Network Centricity. The ground environment has been networked through the indigenously designed and developed Integrated Air Command and Control System (IACCS) which has been operational for quite some time and is now being extended to cover the entire country, including the island territories. The Army and Navy networks as well as civil radars are in the process of being integrated with IACCS. The airborne elements, including space elements of the network, are being expanded and will soon be fully integrated into a single robust entity. Towards this, cases for procurement of the next phase of IACCS and Operational Data Link for Network Centric Operations are at an advanced stage of processing.

Is the IAF under your leadership bringing out a revised doctrine for the force?

Indian Air Force regularly revises its Concepts and Doctrines to keep up with the changing nature of war in the modern times. The existing doctrine is current and would be revised in due course of time.

hat will be the size and calibre of the combat fleet of the Indian Air Force (IAF) when it completes a century of service on October 8, 2032? In the near term, prospects of a 42-squadron force – the assessed minimum to prosecute a two-front air campaign against the nation’s potential adversaries – appear to be receding. The target is officially scheduled to be achieved by 2022. But with the number currently at an all-time low of 34, a further drop to 26 squadrons or less is likely as vintage MiG21 variants and MiG-27ML ground attack aircraft are withdrawn from service over the next five to seven years. However, after decades of reliance on Russian aircraft like the MiG-21 featuring technology now half-a-century old, the government is trying to urgently equip the IAF with new and more potent fighters. Most will have multirole capabilities and the wherewithal to defend themselves, thus obviating the need for dedicated air defence aircraft. Topping the list is the long-awaited Dassault Rafale.

New Expectations

In April, Prime Minister Narendra Modi asked France’s President Francois Hollande to supply 36 ready-to-fly Rafale jets to India. These aircraft may start arriving, perhaps, two years after the contract is inked. However, since they constitute less than a third of the IAF’s projected requirement of 126 new Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA), it is conjec-

tured that more Rafales may be ordered from Dassault later. Or, that as many as 90 aircraft – either Rafales or some similar type – may be manufactured in India. The indigenous option would fit in with the government’s ‘Make in India’ campaign. And if these aircraft were to be produced by private industry in preference to the overburdened stateowned Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) it would also be a major step toward making India self-reliant in defence aerospace. HAL has plenty on its plate. Its Tejas Mk 1 has received only Initial Operational ClearanceII and is expected to achieve Final Operational Clearance by March 2016. The IAF plans to buy 40 of these jets, which may be ready by 2019, even though it views them as something of a stopgap. Tejas Mk 1 is

powered by the General Electric F404GE-IN20 engine, with limited 80-85 kN thrust, that restricts its performance and weapon-carrying capability. The IAF says the aircraft does not meet its Qualitative Requirements (QRs). It is more interested in Tejas Mk 2 which will have the F414GE-INS6 engine with 90-98 kN thrust. It is prepared to order 80-100 or even more of these jets that will also feature upgraded weapons and avionics. But with the Mk 2’s first flight unlikely before 2019, it may enter production only around 2023-24. And HAL, foreseeing this delay, reportedly wants the IAF to accept the under-development Tejas Mk 1A variant, which is slightly more capable than the Mk 1. There are also reports that the government is considering a public-private partnership to speed up Mk 2 availability for the IAF, but that can only happen once it is ready to go into production. Another project that has dragged on interminably is the Sukhoi/HAL Fifthgeneration Fighter Aircraft (FGFA), based on the Sukhoi T-50. The IAF had wanted 127

WEAPONS FOR The IAF must increasingly invest in stealth jets and UCAVs, as well as standoff and smart weapons that incorporate stealth technology. The IAF needs weapons that can fly faster and strike distant targets with better terminal guidance. Only then will it be possible to successfully penetrate the defences of nations like China and Pakistan and hit their vulnerable points, argues JOSEPH NORONHA

October 2015 www.geopolitics.in

of these cutting-edge stealth jets. However, since there’s no agreement in sight and since the FGFA is likely to go into production only around 2024-25, there are reports that the IAF might settle for just 65 T-50s off-the-shelf. It would mean having flyable fighters a lot sooner even as efforts to improve the aircraft can proceed concurrently. There is, however, gratifying progress on the futuristic HAL-designed FGFA known as the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA). If all goes well, the first flight of the twinjet AMCA prototype should happen by 2023-24, and the country would then be well on the way to producing its own fifth-generation fighter. In short, plenty of modern and capable aircraft are expected over the next decade or so. If they materialise in timely fashion the IAF will be a true strategic force equipped with some of the world’s most advanced combat jets, long before it completes a hundred years.

aircraft. Of perhaps greater consequence is the type, capability and number of the weapons they carry, without which they are more suitable for air displays than operational employment. A century ago air warfare meant a hand grenade tossed out of the cockpit or a revolver fired at an airborne opponent. Over the years, aerial weapons gradually became more weighty, accurate and lethal, but till a few decades ago their performance was still rather undependable because they lacked terminal guidance. Then precision weapons arrived on the scene. A precision-guided munition (PGM), also known as a smart weapon, is a guided missile, bomb or other projectile intended to precisely hit a specific target, and minimize collateral damage. It has a ter-

Weapons Make Fighters

It is, however, the experience of air forces everywhere that there’s a dangerous tendency to be preoccupied with the pure performance of combat

minal guidance system that steers it accurately, especially during the last phase prior to impact. This system senses Electromagnetic Radiation (EMR) emitted or reflected by the target. A single advanced long-range missile that can be used only once may cost as much as a small aircraft. Yet PGMs are in great demand by air forces everywhere. That’s because the damage wrought by an explosive weapon sharply decreases with distance due to an inverse cube law that comes into play. In this context, the adage “a miss is as good as a mile” also makes perfect sense, since a miss distance of a few metres could mean leaving the target practically unscathed. On the other hand, even small improvements in accuracy enable a target to be struck with less or smaller weapons. And even if some weapons do miss the target, fewer planes and pilots are put at risk and the quantum of collateral damage may be reduced. In times of crisis, there’s often round-the-clock TV coverage, and no responsible nation wants to be seen as callously hitting a hospital. Hence, smart munitions will increasingly be the weapons of choice. And just as the advent of smartphones rendered older mobile phones “dumb”, so also PGMs have turned unguided bombs into “dumb bombs” or “iron bombs”. This does not mean that gravity bombs and unguided munitions are not useful. Since, they are far cheaper, the IAF and

WAR-FIGHTERS www.geopolitics.in

October 2015

its adversaries will probably employ such weapons for the bulk of air operations for many more years.

Present Punch

The Su-30MKI is the backbone of the IAF’s combat fleet. This twinjet air superiority fighter with significant multirole capability is built under licence by HAL. The IAF has inducted over 200 Su-30MKI aircraft, out of 272 on order. However, combat aircraft invariably need upgrading to keep them abreast of technology. Accordingly, all earlier Su-30 variants have been upgraded to the Su-30MKI Phase 3 standard. Further improvements are expected through the “Super 30” standard which includes new Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar, and improved Electronic Warfare (EW) systems. The Su-30MKI has 12 external weapon stations for the carriage of up to eight tonnes of stores. It can deliver over 70 types of armament including a variety of air-to-air missiles (AAM) like infrared guided missiles and radar-guided missiles. Against targets on the ground, it can deliver unguided weapons, laser-guided bombs (LGB) and Air-to-Ground Missiles (AGM) like the Kh-59 Ovod, a Russian TV-guided standoff cruise missile. HAL is in the process of clearing additional weapons for launch, including advanced versions of the Israeli Derby. Derby is an all-weather Beyond Visual Range (BVR) missile with an active radar seeker that gives it “fire-and-forget” capability. Astra, an active radar homing Beyond-visualrange air-to-air missile (BVRAAM) developed by India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), is also planned for integration with the aircraft. So too is the Indo-Russian KS-172 Novator AAM – an “AWACS killer” capable of

engaging targets at a claimed range of 300 to 400 km. But the Su-30MKI’s most exciting enhancement will be the ability to launch the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile. BrahMos is a joint venture between Russia’s NPO Mashinostroyenia and DRDO. It is the world’s fastest cruise missile and can strike distant targets at nearly thrice the speed of sound. Its operational range is restricted to 290 km under the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), but could conceivably be extended at a later date. The air-launched version of this missile is currently under testing. Although BrahMos is fast, research is on to develop the even faster BrahMos-2 with a speed of over Mach 7. Also under development is the BrahMos-NG (Next Generation) – a mini-missile weighing around 1.5 tonnes and 6 m long – about 50 per cent lighter and smaller than the standard version. Hence, the Su-30MKI may carry five of these missiles. The BrahMos-NG will also have a lower Radar Cross Section (RCS) than its predecessor, making it harder for air defence systems to engage. The Dassault Mirage 2000 is another multirole single-jet fighter that entered IAF service in 1985. It has nine stations with a capacity of 6,300 kg. They can take various missiles for air-to-air engagements, unguided and laser-guided weapons for air-to-ground strikes, or fuel drop tanks. The aircraft also has two 30 mm DEFA 554 revolver cannon with 125 rounds each. The Mirage 2000 is in the process of being upgraded to Mirage 2000I standard which features the Thales RDY 2 radar, a helmet-mounted display, new avionics, and the ability to fire advanced weapons like the MICA. MICA is an all-weather,

Boeing’s Small Diameter Bomb

BOEING

October 2015 www.geopolitics.in

FIRING FROM AIR: ASTRA BVR-Air-to-Air missile being successfully fired from Su-30MKI

fire-and-forget, short to medium-range AAM system. In January 2012, the Indian government signed a $1.23 billion contract for the supply of 450 MICA missiles for the IAF. The HAL Tejas Mk 1 is a multirole single-jet light fighter with a tailless compound delta wing design, just entering IAF service. It is gradually being cleared to launch advanced AAMs, including the Derby and Python-5 plus the indigenous Astra. Against ground targets, the Tejas carries LGBs and unguided weapons. Its maximum load is 3,500 kg, borne on eight stations, which can alternatively take fuel drop tanks or a targeting pod for enhanced accuracy. It has one 23-mm twinbarrel GSh-23 cannon with 220 rounds of ammunition.

Striking Success

It may be recalled that the Rafale was the winner of the IAF’s MMRCA competition of 2007. The contest was designed to choose the best out of six of the world’s top fighters: the Lockheed Martin F-16IN, the Boeing F/A-18E, the Dassault Rafale, the Eurofighter Typhoon, the Mikoyan MiG-35, and the Saab JAS 39 Gripen. After a stringent selection process the Rafale and the Typhoon emerged as the finalists for the lucrative 126-jet deal. Further evaluation saw the Rafale declared as the preferred bid on January 31, 2012. However, in July 2015, the government withdrew the multi-billion dollar tender, and the IAF will get just 36 Rafales to begin with. The Rafale is a twinjet, canard-delta wing, multirole combat aircraft, intended to perform air supremacy, interdiction, aerial reconnaissance and nuclear strike missions. It is not a full-fledged stealth aircraft but has reduced RCS and infrared

Precision at a Price

IAF

signature. It has 14 weapon stations with a maximum load of 9.5 tonnes. Five stations can take auxiliary fuel tanks and a variety of heavy armament like LGBs and other PGMs. Dassault claims that the Rafale’s onboard systems enable ground attack and air combat operations to be carried out in the same mission, thus increasing its survivability and versatility. Ever since the Eurofighter Typhoon was narrowly edged out in the MMRCA shootout it has been trying to make a comeback. With the scrapping of the MMRCA tender and the possibility that the Indian government might still give the IAF up to 90 indigenously made jets of this class, the Typhoon might yet taste success. Saab too fancies the chances of its “dark horse” JAS 39 Gripen which has a well-deserved reputation for providing value for money. The Eurofighter Typhoon is a twinjet, canard-delta wing, multirole fighter with maturing air-to-ground capabilities. It is armed with one 27-mm Mauser BK-27 revolver cannon with 150 rounds. It has a total of 13 stations that can carry up to 7.5 tonnes of stores including Short Range

hile the true prices of weapons are notoriously hard to pin down, here are some ballpark figures.  Boeing’s JDAM (Joint Direct Attack Munition) is a strap-on guidance kit that converts unguided bombs into all-weather smart munitions. One unit costs $25,000.  Boeing’s GBU-39 SDB (Small Diameter Bomb) is a 250 lb precision glide bomb. A single unit costs $40,000. A unit of the advanced version SDB-II costs $250,000.  Lockheed Martin’s AGM-158 JASSM (Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile) Air-to-Air Missiles (SRAAM) and Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM). It can also carry the MBDA Meteor advanced long-range AAM. For the air-to-surface role, it can carry guided bombs of the Paveway series, the Small Diameter Bomb (SDB) and, in future, the Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM). It can deliver various weapons like the AGM-65 Maverick, the AGM88 HARM, the Brimstone anti-armour weapon and other PGMs. It can also carry the Taurus KEPD 350 and the MBDA Storm Shadow Air-launched Cruise Missiles (ALCM). The 200-km range Storm Shadow has a stealthy surface and uses a multimode precision-guidance system, including GPS, inertial navigation and terrain reference technology.

On the Horizon

The Sukhoi/HAL FGFA or Perspective Multi-Role Fighter (PMF) is a derivative of the Russian Sukhoi T-50 prototype. The PMF project proposes 43 improvements

is a stealth standoff cruise missile. One unit costs $700,000 while the extended range version costs $1.359 million.  Raytheon’s AIM-120D AMRAAM (Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile) costs $1.786 million.  BrahMos, a short-range supersonic cruise missile costs $2.73 million. The expense on smart munitions does not end with their purchase. They have complex and sensitive sensors that need a controlled storage environment. Despite all possible precautions their shelf life is limited. (Source: Wikipedia)

over the T-50, to meet the IAF’s specific requirements. It will feature supercruise and have AESA radar. The Russian T-50 variant has one automatic rapid-fire cannon with new heat resistant ammunition. It can carry a useful load of 7.5 tonnes on up to eight internal and external stations. These include two internal bays for medium-tolarge weapons, thus keeping the aircraft stealthy, and two outboard stations for short-range AAMs. It will carry the new X-58USHK Mach 3.5 missile inside the fuselage and can also launch the updated Kh-59MK2 standoff land attack missile. It has provision for Kh-31 anti-radar missiles under the wings. However, the Sukhoi/HAL FGFA version may be armed mainly with indigenous weapons like the Astra and various next-generation AAMs and air-to-surface PGMs, and make up whatever else the IAF

MISSILE FIRE: RAF Eurofighter Typhoon firing an ASRAAM missile UK MOD

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October 2015

Hitting Home – Every Time

ome target acquisition and terminal guidance systems for precision weapons are listed below.  Radio guidance depends on radio signals and predates World War II.  Infrared homing is a passive guidance system which depends on the emission of infrared radiation from the target.  Radar guidance may be active, semiactive or passive. In active homing, the missile has a radar transceiver, whereas semi-active types use only a receiver. Passive guidance kicks in only if the target uses noise jamming – the missile then homes on to the target’s radiation like an anti-radiation missile.  Laser guidance relies on the target being illuminated by a laser designator located on the ground or on an aircraft.  Satellite guidance depends on the GPS system. If the GPS signal is jammed or lost, the guidance reverts to inertial navigation.  Advanced guidance weapons are hybrid laser and GPS guided systems for enhanced accuracy. (Source: Wikipedia)

SAAB’S GRIPEN

needs with Russian sourced armament. The AMCA is an extremely ambitious and complex project that involves collaboration between the IAF, DRDO and the Aeronautical Development Agency in the design, while HAL will manufacture it. The preliminary design stage of this aircraft intended to replace the IAF’s ageing Jaguar and Mirage 2000 jets is now practically over. Next is the project definition and feasibility study. The AMCA is a single-seat, twinjet fifth-generation multirole fighter that will undertake air-to-air and air-to-ground operations with equal competence. Its avionics suite may include an AESA radar (now de rigueur for all air superiority fighters), infrared search and track (IRST) system, appropriate EW systems, an allaspect Radar Warning Receiver (RWR), a laser warning receiver (LWR), missile warning systems and advanced sensors. The aircraft will have extended detection and targeting ranges with the ability to launch weapons at supersonic speeds. While it is too early for detailed weapons analysis, it will surely have one 23-mm GSh-23 cannon and two internal multirack weapon bays in the full-stealth configuration and another four to six external stations for missions where stealth would not be required. It may carry the Astra and other BVRAAMs internally. It may also

MIRAGE 2000

carry the Python-5 all aspect short-range AAM and the Vympel R-73 short/visual range AAM. For air-to-surface missions, it will probably have the BrahMos missile and other standoff PGMs then available. The first AMCA prototype may fly by 2025 and, if all goes well, the jet may be ready for series production by 2030. While stealth is an essential feature of all these futuristic aircraft, and indeed of any fifth-generation combat aircraft, counter-stealth technologies are also under development in various countries. For instance, Russia’s 55Zh6ME radar complex that comprises Very High Frequency (VHF) AESA radar networked with higherfrequency radars, appears capable of detecting stealth platforms. This underlines the necessity of using standoff weapons to preclude getting too close to the target.

Future Smart

The next generation of aerial weapons will most likely have three crucial characteristics. First, very accurate position, target location and navigation capability, to obtain precise results and reduce collateral damage. Second, miniature fuses, sensors, and onboard guidance systems

SAAB

October 2015 www.geopolitics.in

Rafale’s Arsenal

MIGHTY MACHINE: A Rafale pictured in a F3R standard weapon load; AASM Hammer for strike missions and MICA and Meteor missiles for air-to-air work and extra fuel tanks MALAYSIANDEFENCE.COM

to reduce the size of the weapons while intensifying their lethal effect. Third, the ability to engage targets at vast distances so as to keep the attacker safe from the adversary’s terminal defences. High-value weapons too will need to be more survivable by employing stealth and integral self-protection systems. Like the BrahMos-2, they will fly at hypersonic speeds to limit the chances of being intercepted before they strike their target. Miniaturisation of munitions is an increasing trend so that the same combat fleet can pack more punch. For instance, four Boeing GBU-39 Small Diameter Bombs (SDB) weighing just 250 lb each can be carried in place of a standard 2,000 lb bomb. SDBs use a combination of GPS-aided inertial navigation and infrared/radar seekers to attack a variety of targets accurately and relatively cheaply. Weapons with increased explosive power, capable of destroying reinforced or underground targets, are also being investigated. Further, the ability to hit moving targets is important. Directed-energy weapons (DEW) like high-power lasers (HPL) and high-power microwaves (HPM) show great promise in aerial war-fighting applications because they operate at the speed of light. Laser DEWs are rather popular because apart from their legendary accuracy they cause minimal collateral damage. The US Navy has deployed its Laser Weapon System (LaWS) aboard the USS Ponce, a transport ship operating in the Persian Gulf, and it is only a question of time before the US Air Force introduces airborne laser weapons. Microwave DEWs can disable computers and other electronic equipment over a wide area. For instance, the Counterelectronics High Power Microwave Advanced Missile Project (CHAMP) is a joint

concept technology demonstration led by the US Air Force Research Laboratory to develop air-launched DEWs capable of incapacitating or damaging electronic systems.

IAF Imperatives

The age of freefall bombs and other unguided weapons with their inherent inaccuracy is passing. Short-range guided munitions are amazingly accurate, but only if the strike aircraft comes fairly close to the target. Hence they are becoming less useful, especially against heavily defended targets. The future will be all about aerial weapons that can be released from a great distance, yet are sure to hit the chosen target, always and every time. It is also likely that Unmanned Combat Air Vehicles (UCAV) will emerge as the preferred platform for striking high-value targets, especially if the risk to the pilot is significant. Therefore, the IAF must increasingly

High-value weapons too will need to be more survivable by employing stealth and integral self-protection systems. Like the BrahMos-2, they will fly at hypersonic speeds to limit the chances of being intercepted before they strike their target

he Dassault Rafale multirole combat aircraft is cleared for the following weapons:  MICA air-to-air beyond visual range (BVR) interception, combat and selfdefence missiles. It can also be used within visual range (WVR).  HAMMER (Highly Agile and Manoeuvrable Munition Extended Range) modular, rocket-boosted airto-ground PGM.  SCALP long-range stand-off missile.  AM39 EXOCET anti-ship missile.  Various Laser-guided bombs.  NEXTER 30M791 30 mm internal cannon, that fires 2500 rounds/min.  METEOR, an upcoming long-range air-to-air missile.  Astra – the IAF wants to modify its Rafales to carry this indigenous airto-air missile. (Source: Wikipedia)

invest in stealth jets and UCAVs, as well as standoff and smart weapons that incorporate stealth technology. The IAF needs weapons that can fly faster and strike more distant targets with better terminal guidance. Only then will it be possible to successfully penetrate the defences of nations like China and Pakistan and hit their vulnerable points. The IAF has many accurate missiles as well as LGBs in its inventory, but these may run out within the first few days of a major conflict. Therefore, it is gradually increasing its stock of smart weapons. Ideally, at least 40 to 50 per cent of the IAF’s weaponry needs to have some form of terminal guidance. However, considering the exceedingly high cost of specialist munitions it will have to make do with vintage weapons for most purposes. Finally, precision weapons alone cannot guarantee successful air operations. Unless the IAF’s Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities and target analysis techniques correspondingly improve, it is quite possible that a purported tank turns out to be a school bus or a suspected gathering of militants is actually a wedding party. That’s something no self-respecting nation or air force would like. The author is a retired Group Captain

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October 2015

UAVS

Military requirements and future technologies

arlier this year, of the four 'pathfinder' projects that were shortlisted for joint development and co-production during the Obama-Modi Summit in January, one was the next generation Raven mini Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) for battlefield surveillance. The current Raven UAV is hand-launched and has a range of 10 km. India already has the indigenously designed and manufactured Nishant and

the Israeli Heron and Searcher I & II UAVs in service with the armed forces. In a recent development, in September 2015, the government approved the acquisition of 10 missile-armed Heron TP unmanned combat air vehicles (UCAVs) from Israel. The cost of acquisition will be approximately `2,600 crore (US$ 400 million). These UCAVs are similar to the well-known US drone Predator and are expected to enter service in late 2016.

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Each Heron TP UCAV can carry a payload of about 1,000 kg, including air-to-surface missiles, and will provide deep-strike capability in a dense air defence environment. It can also be employed for transborder strikes on terrorist camps and hideouts. The Heron TP is a multi-mission precision strike platform that is capable of all-weather performance. Its endurance time is 36 hours, maximum range up to

HANDHELD UAV: The AeroVironment RQ-11 Raven is a small hand-launched remote-controlled unmanned aerial vehicle developed for the US military now being adopted by the military forces of many other countries

RSTA Requirements large number of the Reconnaissance, A Surveillance and Target Acquisition (RSTA) requirements that can be fulfilled

by UAVs are common to all the Services, though with minor variations in the methodology of use. The major common needs of the Services are:  Strategic surveillance of the nuclear capabilities, movement of nuclear warheads and materials and deployment of nuclear assets of adversaries, particularly during war.  Detection of missile launches during war.  RSTA by way of photo reconnaissance, thermal/IR imaging and SAR during peace-time, the preparatory stage and during war for battlespace transparency.  Target designation for ground-, air- and sea-launched PGMs.  Suppression of enemy air defence (SEAD).  Post-strike damage assessment.  Signals and electronic intelligence (SIGINT and ELINT).  Electronic warfare {(Electronic Countermeasure (ECM) and Electronic counter-countermeasures (ECCM)}.  Information warfare, including psychological and propaganda operations.  Communications relay platform to extend the range of Very High

es such as vulnerability to enemy fire and interception and limitations of communications, they can be employed flexibly and provide unique capabilities to all the Services. While some operational needs are common, others are specific to individual Services.

GURMEET KANWAL writes why UAVs should be able to provide an accurate location of enemy targets or points of interest

Future UAV Technologies

ARMY.MIL

3,000 km and a height ceiling of 45,000 feet, which makes it immune to shortand medium range surface-to-air missiles. The acquisition of the Heron TP will considerably increase the firepower options available to field force and air force commanders. UAVs are low-cost, low-risk, highpayoff intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) and target acquisition (TA) systems. UAVs can be deployed

quickly to cover vast areas and hence, enhance responsiveness. The employment of UAVs improves situational awareness, helps to increase the operational tempo and reduces the sensor-to-shooter time lag. When employed in conjunction with other sensors, UAVs assist in confirming or negating the efficacy of information gathered and, thus, qualitatively improves the intelligence available to commanders. While UAVs have several disadvantag-

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October 2015

Frequency (VHF) and Ultra High Frequency (UHF) communications.  Nuclear, biological and chemical (NBC) detection, early warning and monitoring of contamination (nature and level of nuclear radiation, collection of air samples).  Digital mapping.  Meteorology. Another emerging requirement is that of Unmanned Combat Air Vehicles (UCAVs) to deliver PGMs to destroy selected targets. UCAVs have come of age and have proved their efficacy in recent wars fought in Afghanistan and West Asia. These new weapons platforms have enormous potential to be ‘cued on’ to targets that have been identified and selected for destruction or to act as stand-alone hunter-killers in a battlespace that is teeming with targets, e.g. during an enemy offensive launched with mechanised forces in the plains. The weaponry that UCAVs need to carry and the on-board sensor suite that is necessary to locate targets and guide PGMs on to them, need separate analysis and are not discussed here. It has been reported that the IAF is likely to soon induct the Harop UCAV of Israeli origin. It is a combination of a UAV and a missile and is disposable. Also, the DRDO is developing the AURA (Autonomous Unmanned Research Aircraft) UCAV for the IAF.

Sensor suites are the most important subsystem of a modern UAV and account for one-third to half its cost. The selection of sensors is extremely important, as these must provide information and data in an electronic form that is compliant with the network centricity requirements of the Services. Ideally, data standards should be the same in all the Services so that the inputs provided by the surveillance devices of one Service can be used without any problem by the other Services. However, while the Services are working on achieving compatibility, in the short-term it may be adequate to share information

IAF’s separate UAV cadre

THE MUNITION DRONE: An Israeli unmanned combat air vehicle (UCAV) designed to loiter the battlefield and attack targets by self-destructing into them

ndian Air Force (IAF) has come up with a proposal to create a separate Icadre for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

(UAVs), including the Combat Versions (UCAVs), missiles, air defence and other weapon systems. This would mean that from the time of recruitment, candidates will be selected for these specific cadres just like fighter, transport and helicopter pilots are picked, increasing career options for aspirants. With the IAF inducting the bulk of the over 200 UAVs and remotely piloted vehicles (RPVs) acquired since 2000, the IAF Training Command, headquartered in Bengaluru, had taken the leading by asking for a separate UAV cadre in 2012. This will be a role-specific cadre, so that the officers are trained for a specific role from the word go. The IAF is in the process of expanding its UAV fleet, which includes surveillance, precision-targeting and "armed" drones. The force has now even begun inducting micro-drones for its Garud Commando Force. The recruitment of officers or personnel for a specific role like operating drones will prove beneficial in the long run, given the assessed dynamics of future warfare.

and data after due sifting rather than automatically. The most common user need, particularly of the army, is to be able to see a real-time picture of the battlefield during daylight conditions. Hence, real-time streaming video is a major requirement. Since it requires a large bandwidth, video imposes severe constraints on the communications suite that a UAV can carry. Modern satellites are providing photos of one metre resolution and photos of up to 30 cm resolution can be procured commercially today, though with a small time lag. Specially designed military satelIAI Heron

US DOD

October 2015 www.geopolitics.in

lites are capable of providing a still higher resolution. Hence, it would be justifiable for users to demand daylight photos of equally good resolution from UAVs that fly at much lower altitudes. Photos of such high resolutions will enable users to clearly identify even small military targets, prioritise them for engagement and adjust artillery fire or destroy them with PGMs. The electro-optical/ thermal imaging/ infra-red (EO/TI/IR) sensors available today can meet this demand. Some of the limitations of EO/TI/IR sensors can be overcome by Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) that can take all weather, day/night images with a fairly high resolution and can look through clouds, fog and foliage. Resolutions of the order of 0.3 to 0.1 metres at 25 to 20 km, respectively, are now becoming available. While radar weight is still a major consideration, SAR systems are being modernised and miniaturised at a rapid rate. A future Indian SAR system must incorporate current developments and should be so designed that the technology can be upgraded even after introduction into service. Communications are the key to UAV operations. Failsafe communications are required not only to provide operator instructions to the UAV but also to downlink information and data collected by the UAV and for the UAV to act as a communications relay platform when necessary. Secured, reliable VHF and UHF radio links

MADE IN INDIA: Nishant is an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) developed by India's ADE (Aeronautical Development Establishment)

MOD

navigation and ring Laser gyro provided these can be accommodated within the constraints imposed by the airframe, the need to carry out high endurance missions and the need to equip UAVs with multiple sensor suites.

Survivability and Control

WIKIMEDIA

are required for command and control. Larger bandwidths are necessary for data download. Advances in satellite communications technology have brought UAVs into the ambit of satellite control and reduced the need for relay stations to optimally exploit their range. For naval UAVs on long endurance offshore missions, satellite links are inescapable. Command and control communications also need to be provided with ECCM capabilities so that the UAVs can be given instructions even under enemy jamming. Signals intelligence (SIGINT) and Electronic Intelligence (ELINT) missions and active EW missions are rapidly becoming significant roles for UAVs as weight and power limitations are being gradually overcome. The existing indigenous EW capability needs to be enhanced further and adapted for use on UAVs. UAVs must be able to provide an accurate location of enemy targets (tanks, gun positions, weapon emplacements, bumpers and pill boxes, ATCs, communications centres, enemy ships etc.) or points of interest (choke points, bridges, artificial obstacles, oil slicks etc.). For the purposes of targeting by artillery fire, the location should be accurate ideally to within five metres. Even with GPS, especially non-military use GPS, such accuracies may not be achieved. Hence, it is necessary to strive for more accurate survey and location technologies such as inertial

In the air defence environment prevailing in modern wars, the survivability of UAVs is a key requirement. The technologies necessary to enhance survivability include low radar signature, radar warning receivers, chaff dispensers, ECCM suites to ensure that communications with the UAV are not disrupted, low acoustic signature of the engine and, where possible, radar absorbing paints. These requirements will undoubtedly burden designers with the need to strike a fine balance between the size, shape and weight of the airframe and the payload that can be carried. The Ground Control Station (GCS) is the hub of all UAV operations. It is imperative that the GCS should be developed to common standards for all the Services so that inter-operability is ensured. These

UAVs must be able to provide an accurate location of enemy targets (tanks, gun positions, weapon emplacements, bumpers and pill boxes, ATCs, communications centres, enemy ships etc.) or points of interest (choke points, bridges, artificial obstacles, oil slicks etc.)

should also be capable of interfacing with the command and control and decision support systems of their respective Service and the relevant sub-systems like the Battlefield Surveillance System (BSS) of the army. Service-specific utility and inter-operability through commonality of data standards are no doubt conflicting requirements, but these need to be met if all the surveillance assets are to be optimally utilised. It will not be enough to merely locate static and moving targets by employing UAVs on long duration missions and generating a vast data bank. As these provide a real-time capability, the required triService infrastructure must be created to analyse the incoming inputs within minutes, sift ‘actionable’ bits from those that help to build a continuous intelligence picture and disseminate the actionable information to the users. General Dalbir Singh Suhag, the COAS, said during an interview in January 2015, “UAVs would play a vital role in future battles and there is a requirement to enhance the Indian Army holdings.” The roles and missions of UAVs have been expanding in a dynamic manner since their advent in 1982, when the Israeli army first used them for surveillance and as decoys over the Beqaa Valley in Lebanon. Since then, UAVs have been extensively employed for RSTA and are now acknowledged as effective force multipliers. Emerging technologies will further enhance the effectiveness of UAVs. A very high level of tri-Service networking is required for the optimum exploitation of the capabilities of the UAVs. The next logical step will be to introduce UCAVs into service in the armed forces as a lowcost option for air-to-ground strikes and the acquisition of Heron TP armed drone from Israel is a move in the right direction. The author is former Director, Centre for Land Warfare Studies, CLAWS, New Delhi

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October 2015

INDIA'S EMERGENCE AS AN

AEROSPACE LCA TEJAS

To become a multi-spectrum force, the Indian Air Force (IAF) has rightly discarded its earlier threat-based approach for equipping and training and has, instead, doctrinally embraced a capability-based mode that can be tuned and metered to address any challenge across the entire threat spectrum in the aerospace that encompasses military and commercial sectors of the economy and implies availability within the country of technological infrastructure, human resources, IP and industrial base to develop, manufacture, operate and maintain aviation and space assets, writes VIJAINDER K THAKUR

ndia has emerged as a leading aerospace power that has made impressive strides in space, missile, and aviation technology and has acquired the ability to project military power in distant regions of interest.

The rise, however, as an aerospace power has also been laboured, tentative and to some extent, accidental. To be sure, India has harboured regional power ambitions since independence, but the ambitions have remained tempered

October 2015 www.geopolitics.in

down by weak political leaderships, border disputes fuelled by the belligerence of its neighbours, Pakistan and China; and a dovish security posture that has encouraged, not sobered, that belligerence. China's economic and military growth has, perhaps, been the dominant catalyst to India's growth as an aerospace power. It has inexorably widened the threat-spectrum confronting India, extending it from space to undersea. India's military has been forced to contend with Chinese military satellites, anti-satellite weapons and a growing fleet of nuclear submarines. China's regional power ambitions, and the US desire to ensure that the Chinese ambitions conform to international laws, have exacerbated Indian security concerns. China has stepped up its naval presence in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) in order to secure its Sea Lines of Communication (SLOC) from interference by the US and its allies. However, the

POWER Chinese naval presence in the IOR threatens Indian SLOC because of China's adversarial posture towards India and has spurred heavy Indian Navy investments in aerospace systems such as aircraft carriers, Long Range Maritime Reconnaissance aircraft and communication and surveillance satellites.

Understanding Aerospace Power

A nation does not become an aerospace power merely by acquiring aerospace assets such as aircraft, missiles and satellites. The term Aerospace Power is more encompassing; it straddles military and commercial sectors of the economy and implies availability within the country of technological infrastructure, human resources, IP and industrial base to develop, manufacture, operate and maintain aviation and space assets. During war, a nation's surface forces (Navy, Army) use aerospace assets to fight enemy surface forces along battle lines, while the Air Force uses aerospace power in support of friendly surface forces and also to strike at targets of its own choosing anywhere within enemy territory. The aim is to diminish the enemy's ability and display the will to wage war. Military use of aerospace power is essential for winning a modern war and will remain so in the future. India's rise as an aerospace power has been facilitated by enduring investments

aimed at developing core technologies such as rocket motors, launchers, spacecraft, strategic missiles, tactical missiles, UAVs, aero engine, jet fighters, helicopters, light transport aircraft and jet trainers. Results from these investments have been varied. India has achieved outstanding success in developing rocket motors, space launch systems, satellites, strategic missiles and helicopters. R&D successes in these areas have been productised and operationalised to meet our defence and space requirements. India's success in developing its own communication, surveillance and navigation satellites is particularly noteworthy because of their strategic relevance. Also noteworthy is India's success in developing helicopters (Dhruv ALH, LCH, LUH) to meet its commercial and defence requirements. Progress in developing tactical missiles, Ballistic Missile Defence (BDM) system, missile seekers, radars, Electronic Warfare (EW) equipment, jet trainers and fighter aircraft has been substantial, but less outstanding. Indigenously developed tactical missiles such as Akash and BrahMos are operational. Missile systems nearing maturity include LR-SAM, Nirbhay and Astra. Having achieved total self reliance in developing strategic missiles, the DRDO is now confident of repeating the success with tactical missiles within the next decade. Radars, EW systems and helicopters are areas where India is closing the gap with world technology leaders, having operationalised a wide spectrum of indigenously-developed products. The success achieved in developing trainer aircraft (Kiran, Sitara), fighter aircraft (HF-24, LCA) and light transport aircraft (Avro 748, Dornier Do-228) has been significant, but there continues to exist a substantial gap between demand and supply. India continues to struggle with aero engine and UAV development where no operationally significant products have emerged despite heavy investments

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October 2015

Boeing C-17 Globemaster III

spanning many years. Gas Turbine Research Establishment (GTRE) first failed to deliver on the HJE-2500 engine for the Kiran jet trainer and then on the Kaveri engine for the LCA. However, as a result of license manufacture by HAL and development efforts at GTRE, a credible aero engine technology base has been created which is now being leveraged to indigenously develop several engines for cruise missiles and UAVs under projects such as Manik, Small Turbofan Engine, and Kaveri derivative for Unmanned Strike Air Vehicles (USAV).

Elements of Indian Aerospace Power

Over the past 25 years, the IAF has steadily metamorphosed from a tactical air force meant to support Indian Army operations to a multi-spectrum strategic force with a footprint that covers all areas of interest in the region. As a multi-spectrum force, the IAF can undertake diverse operations such as expeditionary interventions, counterinsurgency, foiling attacks deep within the country away from the border, short theatre war, short all out war, long conventional war and even nuclear war. To become a multi-spectrum force, the IAF has discarded its earlier threat based approach for equipping and training and has instead doctrinally embraced a capability based approach that can be tuned and metered to address any challenge across the entire threat spectrum. The IAF's capability pivot points are: 1. Situational awareness 2. Long Reach 3. Strike power 4. Air Defence Understanding the pivots would put the IAF's current fleet composition and planned acquisitions in the correct perspective.

Situational Awareness

The IAF must be able to see a threat first and far, for which it needs surveillance satellites, Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS), Surveillance drones,

Long Range Radars and Aerostats. Recently acquired IAF assets like AWACS, Heron and Searcher UAVs, Medium Power Radars (MPRs), Low Level Transportable Radars (LLTRs), and aerostats are indicative of the IAF focus on seeing the adversary first. In the near future, IAF investments in surveillance and detection systems are likely to increase. The IAF is aware of emerging challenges to its ability to â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;seeâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; first and far from: 1. Low Observable (LO) combat aircraft and UAVs that would escape detection from the commonly used millimetre wavelength air defence radars. 2. Powerful ground based jammers that

could blind IAF's Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) equipped aircraft and satellites. 3. Anti satellite weapons that could damage or destroy surveillance satellites. The IAF is already investing in passive air defence systems that can detect LO adversary aircraft. The service is also working with the DRDO to acquire launchon-demand capability to replace any satellites disabled through enemy action.

Long Reach

Having seen the enemy from afar, the IAF must be able to strike, wherever it may be. To do so, the IAF needs long range fight-

HAL'S DORNIER DO-228 AIRCRAFT IN FORMATION

BOEING

ers (Su-30MKI) and fighter escorts (Su30MKI, Mirage-2000, MiG-29) capable of mid air refuelling, aerial tankers to refuel strike and escort aircraft (IL-78), standoff weapons (glide bombs, BrahMos-A), Beyond Visual Range (BVR) air-to-air missiles and long range navigation systems. To minimize losses, a long range strike force must have the capability to Suppress Enemy Air Defences (SEAD). The capability can be carried as EW pods fitted on strike aircraft, or through dedicated escort jammers. The IAF's long range strike pivot mandates that fighters acquired in the future should have long range, mid-air refuelling capability, good air combat manoeuvrability and SEAD systems. The IAF's desire to replace its aging MiG-21 fleet with the Rafale is easy to understand in this context. In the future, the IAF would want

Boeing AH-64DHA Apache

Su-30 MKI

October 2015 www.geopolitics.in

HEMANT RAWAT

LCH

IAF

fighters that additionally feature LO, sensor fusion (to reduce pilot workload and facilitate automated threat analysis), and good EW / SEAD capability. Besides the ability to strike targets at long ranges, the IAF has also acquired the ability to move expeditionary forces quickly over long distances through the acquisition of strategic airlift aircraft such as C-17 Globemaster III and C-130J. For the future, the IAF is looking at the Indo-Russian Multi-Role Transport AircraftÂ (MTA), a tactical airlift aircraft capable of operating day and night in unfavourable terrain.

Strike Power

Strike power is, perhaps, the most important element of military aerospace power. The ability to see and reach the enemy, or defend from enemy attack, are mere enablers for the ability to strike the enemy. The course of a battle is determined by the enfeebling blows that you land on the enemy. The more devastating the blows, the better. Accuracy and destructiveness of the weapons delivered on adversary targets is critical to achieving war aims. Strike power is no more measured by the tonnage of bombs that can be dropped on enemy territory, as was the case during

the World War II. It is now measured by the damage you can inflict on the target, which in turn depends on the accuracy, size, and kinetic energy of warheads that strike the target. What misses the target does not count! Following the Kargil war of 1999, during which IAF Mirages used Laser Guided Bombs (LGBs) to devastating effect for the first time, the service has steadily added Precision Guided Munition (PGM) to its inventory of air-to-ground weapons. The IAF's increasing use of PGMs was evident during VayuShakti 2010 and VayuShakti 2013 firepower demonstrations at Pokharan. So, even while the media has focused on the IAF's depleting fighter strength and raised concerns about the IAF's diminishing strike power, the service has increased its strike power many folds by procuring force multiplying PGMs and heavy weapon load fighters that can use the PGMs.

Besides the ability to strike targets at long ranges, the IAF has also acquired the ability to move expeditionary forces quickly over long distances through the acquisition of strategic airlift aircraft such as C-17 Globemaster III and C-130J

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October 2015

PGMs have some unique advantages. They can hit static or moving targets under all light and weather conditions using guidance options such as laser beam riding, IR Imaging, SatNav, radar-datalink or inertial. PGM attacks are executed from standoff ranges allowing strike aircraft to stay clear of enemy ground-fire and Man Portable Air Defence Systems (MANPADS). The attacks can take the adversary completely by surprise, spreading panic. The use of PGMs dramatically pushes up costs â&#x20AC;&#x201C; direct and indirect. PGMs are expensive and for effective use they require targeting and EW support systems and local air superiority. Typically, PGMs are targeted using electro-optical/IR pods fitted externally on strike aircraft, ground based laser illuminators, or data links to synthetic aperture radars (SAR) fitted on AWACS and drones. Enemy EW can degrade PGM performance, so there is also a need for counter EW. Release of PGMs from medium altitudes mandates temporary local air superiority and SEAD, to minimize the threat to strike aircraft from adversary fighters and AD missiles. Often this involves the strike force being accompanied by friendly escort fighters with airto-air missiles, jamming pods and Anti Radiation Missiles (ARMs). The IAF's adoption of PGMs has been steady but slow due to budgeting constraints. The service has yet to acquire full spectrum precision attack capability. Efforts are underway to convert 'dumb' bombs in the IAF inventory to smart bombs by fitting them with laser guidance and glide kits. The IAF also lacks standoff cruise missiles to strike at well defended high value targets. The shortcoming is being addressed by modifying a limited number of

IAF Sukhoi heavy fighters to carry a single 2.5 ton BrahMos-A missile. For the long term, DRDO is attempting to develop a smaller BrahMos variant that could be carried by medium fighters such as MiG29, Mirage-2000 and Jaguars.

Air Defence

In the past, as a tactical air force, the IAF focused on homeland defence and close air support for the army. At the start of a war, IAF strike fighters (Hunters, Mysteres, Maruts) would fly counter air strikes to damage enemy runways and thereby minimize enemy fighter operations. Meanwhile, short-range air defence fighters (MiGs, Gnats) would attempt to thwart enemy counter air strikes. Once army ground formations were on the move, strike fighters would fly CAS missions, while AD fighters would challenge enemy CAS fighters. The IAF's requirement has now changed. Besides homeland defence, its AD fighters are required to escort longrange strike missions. As a result, the IAF has now made a doctrinal shift to multirole fighters capable of undertaking strike, escort and air defence missions. IAF fighter pilots are now trained to perform all roles. The concept of swing role has emerged, wherein a fighter may undertake air defence and strike in a single sortie. The role of AWACS is thus a critical element to the IAF's air defence capability.

Questions about India's Aerospace Power

India's heavy reliance on imported weapon systems is largely attributable to the unprecedented threat faced by the coun-

ALH DHRUV

try from its two nuclear armed neighbours. The unsettling threat scenario triggers reactive procurement of aerospace systems, which are critical enablers of overall military power. The country repeatedly finds itself in a situation where it has no time to develop an urgently-required weapon system. The DRDO and HAL are often unfairly castigated for their inability to develop state-of-the-art defence aerospace sys-

tems. Without suggesting that the DRDO's performance has been stellar, it can be honestly stated that the performance isn't measured with the right yardstick. It's certainly not measured with the same yardstick that is applied to the ISRO, a similar state owned research organisation. ISRO is revered in the country for having developed liquid rocket motors, solid rocket motors, launch vehicles, remote

MiG-21 IAF

October 2015 www.geopolitics.in

RAFALE FIGHTER AIRCRAFT

HAL

sensing satellites, cryogenic engines, and many other technologies. What is overlooked is that ISRO is never pushed to adhere to any schedules, or dictated project specs with frequent changes. Building technology is a phased process that involves creating strengths, building on the created strengths, and applying those strengths to build useful products. The last step is the only one amenable to schedules. For example, ISRO started setting launch per year targets only after its launch vehicle capability matured. On the contrary, DRDO is often saddled with a tight schedule even when undertaking projects it has no strengths in. Against this background, how sound is the IAF's capability based approach for addressing multi-spectrum threats, as compared to a threat based approach? The question is pertinent since our enemies are known, their intent clear, and like us, they are both nuclear armed. Isn't a capability based approach better suited to a global power, like the US, which faces disparate and often unpredictable threats? The IAF knows its threats. Since Independence, India has fought five wars, four with Pakistan and one with China. Both countries are our neighbours. Most analysts believe, India's next war would also be fought against Pakistan or

China and it will be fought along India's contentious mountainous border. The threats from both China and Pakistan are serious, and in the case of the latter, existential. China is committed to dismembering India, taking away Arunachal Pradesh and a large part of Ladakh that still remains under Indian control after China annexed Aksai Chin in 1962. Pakistan annexed a large part of the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir in 1947 and is now committed to dismembering India and taking away the rest of Kashmir. Pakistan has made it clear that any Indian attempt to similarly dismember Pakistan would result in its use of nuclear weapons. There is ambivalence in their stated nuclear posture that hints at use of nuclear weapons in the face of any unfavourable escalation in a war with India! In contrast, India's No First Use (NFU) nuclear doctrine rules out use of nuclear weapons unless the adversary uses them first. In other words, India would not use its nuclear weapons even if Pakistan or

The IAF's exclusive reliance on multirole aircraft to provide Indian troops Close Air Support (CAS) in the mountains is questionable. The IAF and the Indian Army (IA) have both placed orders for HAL-developed Light Combat Helicopter (LCH)

China dismembered the country! The next war is India's, not to win, but to not lose! However, alarmist the above summation may sound, it is factually correct. Under the circumstances, wouldn't prudence demand that the IAF allow some flexibility in its capability approach to address specific threats such as the predicted war in the mountains? The IAF's exclusive reliance on multirole aircraft to provide Indian troops Close Air Support (CAS) in the mountains is questionable. The IAF and the Indian Army (IA) have both placed orders for HAL-developed Light Combat Helicopter (LCH). In the interim, they are likely to buy US Apache AH-65D attack helicopters. Both the LCH and Apache have the high altitude performance necessary to provide Close Air Support (CAS) in the mountains. However, the performance gap between a multi-role fighter and a combat helicopter is rather large. Considering the extent of our mountainous border and the need for quick response and subsequent turnaround with heavy armament load, there is need for a specialized CAS aircraft like the US A-10 Warthog or the Russian Su-25 Frogfoot. If the IAF doesn't fill this gap, the Army will. The Army is already been clamouring for fixed wing transport aircraft. The IAF earlier relinquished its maritime reconnaissance role to the Indian Navy (IN). Relinquishing CAS to the IA would be a lot worse because CAS mandates temporary local air superiority which only the IAF can guarantee. If the Army gets fixed wing dedicated CAS aircraft, it will eventually have a strong case for getting fighter aircraft also! The author is a former fighter pilot of the IAF

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October 2015

RISE OF THE

UNMANNED

AIR FLEET H

uman beings have been earthbound through most of history. While the 18th century saw the first manned balloon ascents, piloted airships and gliders were introduced in the 19th century. Then on December 17, 1903, Orville Wright made the world’s first powered flight over a distance of 120 feet, reaching a height of 20 feet, and remaining aloft all of 12 seconds. The manned aircraft soon permeated every sphere of life in the 20th century – military, civil and commercial.

Now another dramatic transformation is taking place in aviation – the gradual elimination of the onboard pilot. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) or drones are already capable of practically anything manned aircraft can do. Incidentally, “drone” is a name the person in the street gives to any aircraft without an onboard pilot. However, strictly speaking, a drone is an unmanned aircraft that flies autonomously – that is without human control – whereas most unmanned aircraft are under the control of a remote

October 2015 www.geopolitics.in

pilot. In the military domain, UAVs have many distinct advantages over manned aircraft, including lower procurement and operating costs, ease and speed of deployment and greater flexibility and manoeuvrability. They afford commanders unprecedented situational awareness and the ability to engage targets that might otherwise be unviable without unduly risking the life of the pilot. Employed first for Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR), UAVs are now routinely

HELL FIRE: A Reaper drone firing missile somewhere in Afghanistan

Will manned combat aircraft disappear from the scene someday? It seems unlikely. But UAVs are getting faster, smarter and more efficient at everything they are asked to do, writes JOSEPH NORONHA DRONES.NET

used for communications, Electronic Warfare (EW) and weapon delivery. They are particularly favoured for “dull, dirty and dangerous” missions that are considered undesirable for pilots to undertake. Manned aircraft are still far better than UAVs at many things military – air combat, for instance – but that is unlikely to remain true for long. Unbelievable! There was a time when many people scoffed at the idea that computers could ever take on chess champions and win, and they were proved right

time and again. But today even world title holder Magnus Carlsen would be foolish to bet that he could beat a computer over his favourite game.

Drone Drenched

Seeing the writing on the wall, many nations are purchasing or developing UAVs to equip their armed forces. At the same time more and more civil agencies and companies are finding ways to use drones for peaceful purposes – from crop surveys and crowd surveillance all the way down

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October 2015

to wedding videos and home-delivered pizzas. Today anyone anywhere can buy a UAV on the internet or in the neighbourhood. Many technologically savvy persons can also build a rudimentary one. The intention may not always be benign. A recent report by the Center for a New American Security says, “Unmanned aerial vehicles have proliferated rapidly around the globe in both military and civilian spheres…. We are living, increasingly, in a drone-saturated world.” Over

UNMANNED MACHINE: The Taranis UCAV being developed by BAE Systems is a new kind of bomber that will replace piloted planes and the current drones BAE SYSTEMS

90 countries and miscellaneous non-state entities already operate UAVs, and many of these either have or are trying to develop indigenous capabilities. Perhaps, 30 either possess or are pursuing armed versions, ranging from UAVs that can launch advanced missiles to those that can drop a few kilos of high explosive or a hand grenade. Israel was the first to routinely employ UAVs for military purposes, but drone warfare really took off with the US earlier this century. The Americans and Israelis used UAVs initially for spy missions and later to eliminate top leaders of al-Qaeda, the Taliban and Hamas as part of the socalled War on Terror. But now that the US involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan has drastically reduced, the country is turning its attention to longer term and more significant threats, like China. America’s unmanned combat air vehicles (UCAV) like the General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper and the General Atomics MQ-1 Predator wowed the world in Iraq and Afghanistan. But if they were confronted by China’s anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capability, they would be shot out of the skies in quick time. That is why the US Air Force (USAF) is keen to address the challenges of UAV survival in “contested airspace”. The US Navy’s Unmanned CarrierLaunched Airborne Surveillance and Strike (UCLASS) programme aims to develop a UCAV to provide an effective unmanned intelligence and strike capability to the fleet. At present US carriers need to sail to within 800 km of their target because that is the maximum range of carrier-borne strike jets. However, potential adversaries like China and Russia have land-based aircraft and missiles with effective ranges greater than 800 km, and the carriers would be grievously vulnerable to them. China’s People’s Lib-

eration Army (PLA), for instance, has the DF-21 anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) with a range of over 1500 km. The attraction of UCAVs like the Northrop Grumman X-47B technology demonstrator and its planned successor the X-47C is their range of over 2,500 km – meaning they could be launched from a carrier far beyond the reach of mainland defences. China – home to the world’s fastest and most ambitious UAV development programme – is likely to pose the main threat to the current US domination of unmanned operations. The country has profitably learned the lessons of US employment of UAVs and believes that stealth technology is essential for UAVs to be deployed against well-defended ground targets. China, which does everything on a grand scale, also emphasises numbers. According to a report by the US Defense Department, “Some estimates indicate China plans to produce upwards of 41,800 land- and sea-based unmanned systems, worth about $10.5 billion, between 2014

Israel was the first to routinely employ UAVs for military purposes, but drone warfare really took off with the US earlier this century. The Americans and Israelis used UAVs initially for spy missions and later to eliminate top leaders of al-Qaeda

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AVIATION HISTORY: The X-47B during aerial refueling

and 2023.” The report adds, “In 2013, China unveiled details of four UAVs under development – the Xianglong, Yilong, Sky Saber, and Lijian – the last three of which are designed to carry precision-strike capable weapons.” The stealthy Lijian, that is similar in size and shape to the X-47B, first flew in November 2013. Another report says China is currently building five models of large-sized UAVs, intended for various military applications. And armed versions are undoubtedly high on its priority list. However, many Chinese UAVs are low-end systems. China is a major producer and exporter of commercial UAVs and these can easily be modified for military use. In 2014, a Chinese civil UAV intended for mapping and land use surveys remained continuously airborne for over 30 hours. The country has no qualms about selling to anyone if the price is right. Pakistan, therefore, is in a sweet spot. In March 2015, Pakistan claimed to have successfully launched a laser-guided missile from its indigenously developed UAV. However, analysts opine that the medium-range Shahpar and its armed counterpart, the Burraq, are clones of the Chinese CH-3 UAV.

NORTHROPGRUMMAN

Even a small country like Israel has over 70 large UAVs like the indigenously manufactured Heron, Hermes and Searcher and deploys them for border security and counter-terror operations. On the other hand, Russia is lagging in the UAV race. But it now intends to invest $10 billion in unmanned military systems by 2020. Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation has already experimented with converting the Yakovlev Yak-130 trainer and the Berkut VL two-seat light commercial helicopter into UAVs and plans to produce a prototype of a huge 20-tonne UCAV based on the Sukhoi T-50 stealth fighter by 2018. Europe too, seems strangely unenthusiastic about UAV development, partly because of easy access to US and Israeli systems and partly because of stretched military budgets. However, the UK’s BAE Systems Taranis and the six-nation nEUROn are under extensive testing as UCAV technology demonstrators. Both should be convertible to operational devices without much delay should the need arise.

I tactical surveillance UAVs from Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) in 1996 and the Indian Air Force (IAF) and Indian Navy soon followed suit. In 2000, IAI Searcher Mk II UAVs were inducted, and IAI Heron Medium Altitude Long Endurance (MALE) UAVs arrived a year later. According to published sources, India has imported a total of 176 UAVs of which 108 are Searchers and 68 are Herons.

The Aeronautical Development Establishment is in the forefront of UAV indigenisation efforts. While it has already made operational UAVs like Netra, Lakshya and Nishant, while Rustom-I, RustomII and the futuristic AURA are in various stages of development

India’s Unmanned Story

The Indian Army acquired Searcher Mk

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October 2015

During operations, the IAF’s Heron and Searcher Mk II UAVs will most likely be used for surveillance of enemy airfields, radar sites, and air defence systems. The IAF is also inducting the IAI Harop loitering munition system. With a 1000-km range and six hours endurance, Harop detects pulses emitted by radars and missile sites, homes onto the selected target and explodes. The Indian Army is also considering acquiring hundreds of small UAVs – made in India if possible. Indeed, the country would greatly prefer to design and produce its own UAVs. The Aeronautical Development Establishment (ADE), a branch of the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), is in the forefront of UAV indigenisation efforts. While it has already made operational UAVs like Netra, Lakshya and Nishant, others including Rustom-I, RustomII and the futuristic AURA are in various stages of development. Netra is a lightweight, autonomous UAV used for surveillance and reconnaissance operations. It has been jointly developed by ADE and ideaForge, a Mumbai-based private firm. It uses quadcopters to provide lift and control and has vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) capability. It can fly 2.5 km from its takeoff point at an altitude of 200 m. Netra is usefully employed by the Central Reserve Police Force and Border Security Force. Lakshya is a pilotless target aircraft used by the three services for practice firing. Nishant is rail-launched from a hydro-pneumatic launcher and can be recovered by a parachute system. Weighing 380 kg, it has a cruise speed of 125 km/h to 150 km/h, range of 160 km, endurance of 41/2 hours and service ceiling of 3,600 m. Nishant’s role is day/night ISR, target designation, artillery fire correction and damage assessment. It is being inducted by the Indian Army. Rustom-I, currently undergoing final flight testing, is a Medium Altitude Long Endurance (MALE) UAV that can fly for up to 12 hours and perform a range of tactical military missions including ISR and EW. It is intended to replace or supplement the Heron. DRDO is integrating the 190 mm Helina Anti-tank Guided Missile (ATGM) with the Rustom-I and trials are expected to commence later this year. This has become more necessary since Pakistan claims to have its own UCAV. Apart from anti-armour and other land strikes Rustom-I could be used against small vessels. Rustom-II is an advanced version,

Indian Military UAVs ndia’s armed forces currently have varying numbers of UAVs, all Imanufactured by Israel Aerospace

Industries (IAI).  Searcher Mk I: A tactical surveillance and reconnaissance UAV.  Searcher Mk II: An advanced version of Searcher Mk I.  Heron: An advanced Medium Altitude Long Endurance (MALE) UAV.  Harop: A loitering munition system for kamikaze attacks against radar emitters.

also under development. Its long-delayed first flight may happen this year. It weighs about 1,800 kg, has a payload of 350 kg, and an endurance of over 24 hours. About 75 systems are initially likely to be built for the three services for a variety of military roles. DRDO hopes eventually to transform it into a UCAV, similar to the US Predator. Far more ambitious is the Autonomous Unmanned Research Aircraft (AURA), a dedicated UCAV for the IAF and Indian Navy, which is in the project definition stage. AURA will be a stealthy flying-wing built largely with composites and powered by a non-afterburning variant of the Kaveri jet engine. It will have internal bays for housing missiles and other precision-guided munitions (PGM) and is claimed to have “self-defending high-speed reconnaissance and weapon firing capability.” Since many of its basic technological features are being validated on Rustom programmes, AURA could see quick progress. UAVs are proving useful to monitor the movement and activities of Naxalites and insurgents. However, dedicated military satellites like the Indian Navy’s GSAT7 and the IAF-Army joint satellite GSAT7A, expected to be launched shortly, are vital for operations over extended ranges. Both satellites have Ku-band transponders essential for controlling UAVs.

Survival Strategies

Current UAVs are mostly incapable of detecting operational threats, so they are extremely vulnerable to advanced air defence systems. The seeming freedom they

INDIGENOUS UAV: DRDO RUSTOM-1- UAV passes through the Rajpath during the Republic Day Parade HC TIWARI

enjoyed to roam the length and breadth of Afghanistan and Iraq is deceptive. But some of the best technologists in the US are now striving to ensure the survival of their UAVs against potent adversaries like China. Similarly, India’s UAVs may have to run the gauntlet of the air defences of China or Pakistan. That is why AURA must

Made in India  Netra: A lightweight, autonomous VTOL UAV for use by paramilitary forces.  Lakshya: A pilotless target aircraft used by India’s armed forces.  Nishant: A low-altitude, raillaunched UAV being inducted by the Indian Army for various tactical missions.  Rustom-I: A tactical MALE UAV under flight testing for the three services. Primarily intended for ISR and EW; being modified to carry Helina ATGMs.  Rustom-II: A MALE UAV with UCAV capability, under development for the three services. Its first flight is expected this year.  AURA: A futuristic autonomous UCAV for the IAF and Indian Navy, still in the project definition stage.

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reduce chances of detection with stealth technology. According to a USAF study, survival of UAVs in contested environments needs enhanced situational awareness, automation and advanced weapons. Since the chances of UAVs losing their communication link at some stage are bright they need a high degree of autonomy to continue their mission and return to base where their data can be analysed. They also need to avoid detection by incorporating stealth features like low radar signature, radar absorbing paints and low acoustic signature of the engine. The US already has two stealth UCAVs – the Lockheed Martin RQ-170 and the Northrop Grumman RQ-180. A host of other countries, including India, are trying to develop similar stealthy systems. Survival may also be enhanced through radar warning receivers, chaff dispensers and electronic hardening to prevent disruption of communications. However, all these obviously add to the size, shape and weight of the UAV and reduce the useful payload that can be carried. They also entail a power and heating penalty. Small UAVs survive better than big ones because they are harder to detect. Also, hundreds of small UAVs can be deployed for the cost of a large one and they can be of the multifunction, multimission variety. Some could even be disposable, like gliders, eliminating the need for engine and fuel. For instance, the US

much like human combat pilots. Autonomy has cost benefits because it lowers the quantum of training necessary for UAV ground pilots. It may reduce the large number of UAVs currently lost due to piloting errors. It also vastly enhances survival. That is why the USAF lists autonomy as one of five “game changing” technologies, along with hypersonic weapons, directed energy weapons (DEW), unmanned vehicles and nanotechnology. However, autonomous systems are only as good as their software. They would be very vulnerable in any new situation not foreseen by their designers or inadequately addressed in the intricate algorithms that control them. Enhanced levels of automation also need corresponding high-speed onboard data processing capability. And cooling could become a major issue unless all subsystems are extra efficient and produce limited heat.

Countering UAVs

FUTURE FIGHTER: Burraq is an unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) developed by Pakistan DEFENCE.PK

Naval Research Institute has developed a tiny reconnaissance UAV that looks like a winged mobile phone. It can be dropped from an aircraft at high altitudes or launched by being fired from a gun. This micro-UAV known as Close-In Covert Autonomous Disposable Aircraft (CICADA) may be fitted with a range of lightweight sensors, including microphones. A large number can be fielded at very low cost and used for a variety of missions. Another survival scheme is to simultaneously launch many small and cheap devices instead of risking a large and expensive UAV. These could overwhelm the defences and, even if many were intercepted, a whole lot would probably get through. Known as “swarming”, the technique offers many benefits and the US military identifies it as a priority research area. However, autonomy would be essential as the need for human pilots to control each UAV would create problems of its own. After the 20-, 30- or even 50-strong swarm is up in the air, the devices would communicate among themselves, choose a leader, and the rest would follow in a coordinated group. A single militarily useful UAV could have ISR sensors, EW systems or even warheads. One device may cost about $1,000 – well within the price range of expendables – and could even be sent as a “suicide attacker” straight into the intake of an incoming jet. Such systems could be operationally deployed in the next few years.

Autonomous Affairs

With onboard software rapidly replacing many UAV piloting functions, autonomous UAVs may ultimately render pilots redundant. A UAV which depends on communication with its controller, or on GPS signals, can be lost if the link is suddenly snapped by jamming or a technical glitch or simply degraded by bad weather. On the other hand, autonomous UAVs could have pre-programmed criteria to continue their mission, or choose an appropriate alternative target, or even abandon the mission and return to base if certain overriding conditions were not met. In other words they would operate pretty

In India, the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) is in the process of formulating regulations for certification and operation of UAVs and currently requires prior permission for any non-military UAV flight.

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October 2015

With UAVs of all shapes and sizes proliferating rapidly, research into counter-UAV technology is also accelerating. There are stark warnings that airports and other sensitive locations anywhere could be targeted by personal drones. The US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has already recorded almost 700 close encounters between UAVs and aircraft. Indeed, private drones are everywhere and a capable system with a camera and video recorder can be bought on the internet for a few hundred dollars. The operator can even choose to fit an improvised explosive device (IED) in pursuit of more violent aims. In India, the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) is in the process of formulating regulations for certification and operation of UAVs and currently requires prior permission for any non-military UAV flight. However, with a micro-UAV available for as little as `2,000 unauthorised flights are rampant. What’s to stop terrorists from mounting an unmanned attack? With drone numbers surging and sizes shrinking by the day they are becoming harder and harder to detect and track. Even if advanced radars are available, it is especially problematic to distinguish small quadcopters or other rotorcraft that move slowly or hover, from birds. And even if an undesirable UAV is detected and identified as such, the question remains – what next? The traditional means of shooting down airborne targets – guns or missiles – cannot be gainfully employed. Laser devices potentially offer the best solution. A 40-kilowatt laser DEW may be able to destroy micro and mini-

UAVs at a range of up to 5 km. But laser weapons will come with a big price tag for many years.

The Commercial Scene

If military UAVs are assured of a bright future, drones seem destined to penetrate the commercial and civil spheres in an even bigger way. Indeed, they could change the face of aviation in the 21st century. Commercial applications of unmanned systems may soon vastly outstrip military uses and dictate the speed and direction of progress in UAV technology. The military may eventually become only a bit player, as happened with mobile phones, lasers and computers. A Teal Group study forecasts that global UAV production will total $93 billion in the next 10 years, representing a tripling of the current market. The study assesses that the UAV market for the decade will be made up of 72 per cent military, 23 per cent consumer and 5 per cent civil. However, with an endless array of civil organisations, consumer entities and other industries lining up to harness the potential of UAVs it is a different story as far as numbers go. Military users are currently predominant, but by around 2020 commercial applications, particularly retail and e-commerce are likely to surge ahead. Amazon predicts that within the next decade, drone flights will vastly outnumber commercial, cargo, military and general aviation flights. It expects that in the next 10 years, in the US alone, hundreds and thousands of small drones will crisscross the skies largely under their own automated control. What’s holding back the hordes? Not cost, which is plunging by the day. It is more the fear that in the absence of rational regulation, the authorities may suddenly clamp down on private or commercial UAV flights. But the march of the micro-drones is so rapid that any type of regulatory oversight is destined to be found wanting. In February 2015, the United States Federal Aviation Administration (US FAA) did try to control the use of commercial drones, by specifying that the controller should be able to see the UAV at all times. However, critics say having a pilot constantly operating the aircraft from the ground defeats the whole purpose of unmanned flying, since pre-programmed autonomy is the key to lower costs. Privacy is also emerging as a major issue, because today just about anyone can buy and fly a micro-UAV with little chance of being detected. Civilians have already been known to take the law into their own

Commercial drone in action

hands and shoot down or otherwise damage drones they suspected were spying on them!

Can UAVs Rule the (Air) Waves?

It is tempting to describe UAVs as the “wave of the future”. Indeed, they are certain to play a key role in any future conflict and in all human affairs. But how big will the wave be? According to industry sources, much will depend on whether certain technological issues can be solved. Like longer endurance, especially for ISR UAVs. While small electric UAVs need better batteries, large ones require improved fuel efficiency. Orion, a MALE UAV produced by Aurora Flight Sciences, currently holds the UAV endurance record – over 80 hours – but most other systems cannot exceed 24 hours. UAVs also need smaller, lighter, and more efficient sensors of various kinds to locate and identify their target and to detect threats. As counter-UAV measures spread, it will become increasingly difficult for UAVs to operate in contested airspace. Their survival will depend on stealth features, stand-off capability, longer-range weapons, longer-range communications and electronic countermeasures. A capable sense-and-avoid system is also essential to autonomously alert a UAV that it may collide with another aircraft, a building or even a bird, and manoeuvre it appropriately to avoid the risk. All this can only come with vastly increased onboard computing power and expanded bandwidth, and it must be achieved while generating less heat.

October 2015 www.geopolitics.in

Industry also needs to achieve lower manufacturing, lifecycle and maintenance costs. This will happen much faster as commercial UAV applications take off. Analysts believe the share of UAVs in military aviation will steadily increase and many air forces will attain at least a 50:50 mix of manned and unmanned aircraft within the next couple of decades. The air combat role is obviously the biggest challenge for unmanned technologists, and fighter pilots will be relieved that they can keep their jobs for the next few decades. However, many other branches of aviation will gradually be conquered by the unmanned brigade. There’s also the proposed “optionally manned” configuration where an aircraft may be operated by a pilot for one mission and flown unmanned for the very next one, depending on the specific military situation. Will manned combat aircraft disappear from the scene someday? It seems unlikely. But UAVs are getting faster, smarter and more efficient at everything they are asked to do. And there’s no insurmountable technological reason why they cannot eventually fill every military role currently assigned to manned aircraft. In future, unmanned missions will increasingly be the first choice while pilots may be sent into combat only when it is inescapable. That should take a lot of pressure off commanders. The writer is a retired Group Captain of the IAF

BUSINESS

INE

CE BUS

FEN

Thumbs up after KC-46A ’first flight‘

DEFENCE

ANTOINE CAPUT

THALES

OUR STRATEGY IS IN LINE WITH MAKE IN INDIA

57 BOEING

LECK CHET LAM EXPERIA EVENTS

oeing has completed the first flight of KC-46A tanker on September 25. The “Pegasus” tanker flew for four hours, departing from Paine Field, in Everett and landing at Boeing Field in Seattle. It was the first flight of a tanker-configured aircraft based on the Boeing 767-2C commercial freighter. The long overdue flight delayed because of technical problems accomplished a key milestone in the programme. “Today’s flight reinforces that we are moving in the right direction and are on track to begin planned Milestone C testing later this year,” stated Tim Peters, Boeing KC-46 tanker Vice President and Program Manager. “This is an aerospace industry first and the culmination of a lot of hard work by

MINI AND MICRO UAVS ARE AT AN ADVANCED STAGE OF DEVELOPMENT

50 T SUVARNA RAJU HAL

the team.” The programme expects to begin aerial refuelling demonstration flights with different aircraft types, including the F-16, C-17, F/A-18, A-10, AV-8B and a receiver KC46A, by the end of the year. Despite delays, Boeing has said it will still meet its contract to deliver 18 completed tankers to the Air Force by August 2017. This was not the first time first flight has been delayed. The event was initially slated for 2014, then pushed back to April, then postponed again to later this summer. Eventually the US Air Force wants to buy 179 of the KC-46s, which will replace the Air Force’s aging fleet of KC-135 tankers. The series of contracts could be worth more than $50 billion for Boeing.

FOCUSED ON GROWING OUR INDIA DESIGN CENTRE www.geopolitics.in

SUNIL RAINA

ROCKWELL COLLINS INDIA

October 2015

THE SHOW HAS GROWN IN INFLUENCE

BOEING R RECEIVES ORDE FOR APACHE AND CHINOOK HELICOPTERS

DELIVERING BETTER POWER FOR A CHANGING WORLD

STEVEN GILLARD

ROLLS-ROYCE

HAL hopes to get substantial orders in UAV sector T SUVARNA RAJU, Chairman and Managing Director (CMD), Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd, speaks about the advancements made in the LCA MK2 and various other manufacturing programmes… The biggest expectation from HAL stable at this point in time is LCA Mk1 and Mk2. What’s the progress on Mk1 since you handed over the first series production plane to the IAF in January 2015? What are you working on to make Mk2 a contemporary plane in the third decade of the 21st century? HAL is the principal partner for the Design and Development of Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) along with the Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA) which is the nodal design agency and responsible for the programme management. Consequent upon the handing over of the first series production aircraft of LCA

Mk1 in January 2015, HAL has focused on the expeditious production and supply of the aircraft against the first order which are to be delivered in IOC configuration. Design of LCA Mk2 with higher thrust engine and further advanced capabilities is under progress by ADA and HAL is actively participating in this programme.

The IAF has recommended that the IJT project be given up and has floated RFIs for a new one. What has led to this situation and how do you intend to get better of the situation?

Like any typical aircraft development programme, Intermediate Jet Trainer (IJT) has experienced its share of challenges. However, with over 1000 test flights performed so far IJT is in the advanced stages of development and nearing operational clearance. Spin tests are required to be satisfactorily completed for which HAL is progressing. Soon after the successful completion of spin tests followed by the operational clearance, HAL is confident of obtaining IAF’s consent for continuing with the programme.

How does your order book look at present? What are the present orders you have beginning with Su-30MKI, Hawks and the rest?

The orders for the current manufacturing programmes of Su-30MKI, Hawk, LCA, Dornier Do-228, ALH, Cheetal are available over and above the Refueling and Overhaul (ROH) programmes orders flow continuously till the platforms are operational with the Services. Further, HAL is expecting additional orders for Su-30MKI, Hawk, LCA, Do-228, Advanced Light Helicopter (ALH), Cheetal where discussions are under progress. In addition to this, the successful completion of the ongoing development pro-

ditional HAL is expecting ad awk, H orders for Su-30MKI, Light d ce LCA, Do-228, Advan tal where ee Helicopter (ALH), Ch ogress r pr de discussions are un

HAL in drones race

ndia’s aircraft manufacturer Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. (HAL) has launched a major programme to produce three categories of drones or Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) for civil and military purposes. HAL had announced this during the Aero India 2015 where its Chairman T Suvarna Raju had said that HAL is coming up with a 8 kg to 10 kg class medium UAVs for the services. It was partnering with defence research lab Aeronautical Development Establishment

(ADE) for the latter’s Rustom-2, and with National Aerospace Labs for 2-kg micro air vehicles. HAL and ADE is already in a tie-up for ADE’s `1,200-crore Rustom-2 MALE drone (Medium Altitude Long Endurance). HAL had decided to invest `210 crore in the triangular programme, which may need a new production line. Bharat Electronics Ltd., another defence PSU, will provide ground support for the pilotless aircraft and put in `90 crore.

October 2015 www.geopolitics.in

RUSTOM UAV

grammes of Light Combat Helicopter (LCH), Light Utility Helicopter (LUH), Fifth-Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA), Multi-role TransportÂ Aircraft (MTA) etc. would result into production orders. HAL has also ventured into Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) by establishing a Strategic Business Unit (SBU). The mini and micro UAVs are at an advanced stage of development. These have a great market potential and HAL expects to bag substantial orders.

HAL has several projects going on for foreign OEMs including Boeing, Airbus and

several global aerospace OEMs. You also have JVs with some of them. Could you give an assessment of how the top five such projects and top five such JVs have performed and whatâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s in store for future under those projects and JVs?

HAL has been supplying passenger doors for Airbus A320 aircraft for over the last two decades, and there is a lifetime contract for the same. We are also looking to expand the collaboration in the areas of other work packages. Similarly, HAL is participating in work packages like Gun Bay Door, Weapon Bay Door, Landing gear uplock box, IFF system for various Boeing programmes. A

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October 2015

number of castings/ forgings are being supplied for Rolls Royce. HAL has Joint Ventures with RollsRoyce, UK and Snecma, France which are state of the art manufacturing facilities functioning as Export Oriented Units (EOUs). The JV with Russian partners (IRAL) is engaged in providing product support for MiG series / Su-30MKI aircraft. IT solutions and software design related services are being catered to by the JV with BAE Systems, UK. These prominent JVs are poised for growth. HAL is also in the process of setting up a JV with Turbomeca, France for MRO of helicopter engines.

‘Pro Line Fusion is ideal for the Indian market’ For the kind of business that Rockwell Collins is in, what do you think the company should do in India to further strengthen its market share? What's the company's outlook for Indian market?

SUNIL RAINA, Managing Director, Rockwell Collins India, talks about developing strategic partnerships in India in line with the ‘Make in India’ and bringing Pro Line Fusion integrated flight deck to India

Rockwell Collins continues to be extremely bullish on the India aerospace and defence market. We are continuing to invest and adding people in our Design Centre in Hyderabad. We are bringing truly customizable commercial products to the Indian market, such as our latest MultiScanThreatTrack Weather Radar, and Pro Line Fusion integrated flight deck. We are focused on developing strategic partnerships in India in line with the ‘Make in India’ policies. We’ve announced in the past partnerships with TATA Power SED for software defined radio opportunities and Zen Technologies for simulator opportunities in the defence sector and work with various MRO partners for commercial aviation services.

October 2015 www.geopolitics.in

What are your immediate KRAs in your new role in the company and what are the areas you will focus on directly to provide a fillip to the company's business in the Indian market?

I’m focused on growing our India Design Centre, adding engineers and finding the right key strategic partnerships to co-develop or customize our products and solutions. At the same time, I’m continuing to lead our business development activities in both the defence and commercial aviation sectors, working with new and existing customers and partners.

It has been earlier mentioned about significant business opportunities with the military in India for our communications upgrades, network-centric warfare, avionics, and simulation and training systems. Could you explain where all specifically do you see the possibilities?

We continue to pursue opportunities related to ground and air networked communications, simulation and training with our partner Zen Technologies, and avionics upgrades for military aircraft. We have content on a number of platforms today and feel we offer a strong value proposition of globally proven and trusted solutions at low lifecycle costs.

Why do you think Pro Line Fusion integrated flight deck can be a suitable product for the Indian market? Are there any specific Indian military platforms on which you would see this product integrated?

Pro Line Fusion is on 20 platforms today globally and continues to be selected for new aircraft, and recently, retrofits on the King Air. It’s an integrated system that provides the greatest level of situational awareness and safety in the industry. It’s also a commercial product that can be customized to specific military missions. For all of these reasons, Pro Line Fusion is ideal for the Indian market.

You do have products for Chinook and Seahawk. India is on the verge of ordering these two platforms in the coming years. What are the business possibilities for Rockwell Collins?

Rockwell Collins offers a variety of integrated flight decks for all aircraft platforms. Today we are on many Chinook platforms with our Common Avionics Architecture System (CAAS), an open, modular flight deck. As the cockpit systems integrator, Rockwell Collins provides the S-70B Seahawk with our state-of-the-art Avionics Management

PRO LINE FUSION ROCKWELL COLLINS

portunities We see tremendous opn Centre with our India Desig to grow our and plan to continueline with the capabilities there in paign ‘Make in India’ cam

System and integrated communications and navigation equipment. For these reasons, Rockwell Collins is again well suited to provide products for these aircraft in India.

Around the same time last year, Rockwell Collins had signed an MoU with Hyderabad-based Zen Technologies for simulation products for the Indian aviation market. What's been the progress since? Have you two worked on any new product, apart from the helicopter simulator that was displayed at the AeroIndia-2015 earlier this year, and what's happened under the arrangement that you think can become a talking point now?

We were pleased to unveil our co-developed simulator at Aero India and are continuing to work very closely with

www.geopolitics.in

October 2015

Zen. We will share updates in the near future.

Your India Design Centre, established in 2008 in Hyderabad, has supported the Airbus A350 on-board Information Management System; cockpit displays for military helicopters; and next-generation Flight Management System platforms. Is there any plan to ramp up the Centre’s work to go up the value chain? Yes, we see tremendous opportunities with our India Design Centre and plan to continue to grow our capabilities there in line with the ‘Make in India’ campaign. We will share more information about our plans in coming months.

You have plans to double your work force in India over the next few years. What's your strategy to achieve that? Why are you increasing your work force in India? Would this mean you have or expect to win orders in India that could require more human resources?

We are optimistic that we will win more orders in India and have invested in our “triad” strategy of adding (1) business development, (2) programme management and (3) systems engineering to bring in new business. My background is in business development so that is high on my list of priorities. At the same time, we are finding additional work for our India Design Centre to take on as this team continues to perform beyond all expectations.

THALES: A TRUSTED PARTNER OF THE INDIAN AIR FORCE T

he Indian defence industry is witnessing a significant and progressive change led by a strong modernisation push by the government. This is paving the path for the local defence firms to adopt world-class technologies while partnering with multinational companies. Armed with a rich history of innovation and excellence, Thales is a world technology leader in the defence, aerospace, transportation, and security sectors. Having an exceptionally strong international footing with operations in 56 countries, Thales has the unique capability to design, develop and deploy equipment, systems and services that meet the most complex requirements. Thales’s association with India dates back to 1953 when it first launched its operations in the country. Since then, it has been contributing to its development in the fields of defence, aerospace and ground transportation through its subsidiary Thales India Private Limited.

Strong industrial footprint through partnerships with local industry

Over the years, Thales has developed strong working relationships with the Indian industry – DPSUs and the private players. In 2008, Thales and Samtel Avionics Limited formed a joint venture (JV) to locally develop and produce helmet mounted sights and displays, military avionics and airborne sensor systems for the defence market. This JV is also responsible for the production of displays for the upgrade of Indian Air Force’s Mirage 2000. Thales has also been associated with Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL) for over 60 years now. During this period, it has collaborated with BEL on many successful and critical projects to service the Indian Armed Forces. In August 2014, Thales and BEL’s JV Company was incorporated as BEL-Thales Systems Limited. It is dedicated to the design, development, marketing, supply and support of civilian and select

military ground based radars for both Indian and international markets. Thales holds 26 per cent equity while BEL holds 74 per cent in the JV. Thales also has a JV with L&T Technology Services that was formed in June 2014 with an objective to develop software engineering activities in India, particularly in the avionics domain. Thales has been historically catering to the requirements of the Ministry of Defence providing air surveillance capabilities and air defence systems for the country.

Long and distinguished history in the country

Backed by six decades of experience and trust built in the country, Thales is today recognised as a strategic partner in India’s defence modernisation. Its support to the Indian Armed Forces has helped the government in achieving the goals of self-reliance in defence equipment. All these years, Thales has been offering a range of platforms and technologies to the Indian Air Force, and widely the Indian Armed Forces, to meet their defence requirements and better protect the country. Since the year 2011, Thales and Dassault Aviation have worked together for the upgrade of the IAF’s Mirage 2000 fleet, in view of enhancing its technicaloperational capabilities. The handing over ceremony of the first two Indian Air Force Mirage 2000 I/TI took place in March 2015 at Istres, Dassault Avia-

tion’s Flight Test Centre, under the high patronage of Ambassador Arun K Singh, the Indian Ambassador to France. The company has also signed major contracts with the Indian Ministry of Defence for air, land and naval solutions. For Air Force, Thales’s references include state-of-the-art AESA radar such as Low Level Transportable Radar’s GS100; reconnaissance pods Vicon 91; avionics and Inertial Navigation and Global Positioning System (INGPS) for military aircraft such as the Mirage 2000, MiG-21 and 27, SU-30, amongst others.

Supporting ‘Make in India’

Thales’ strategy of developing its industrial footprint in India is in line

with India Thales’s association n it first he dates back to 1953 w in the ns io launched its operat it has been country. Since then, velopment contributing to its de Antoine Caput

October 2015 www.geopolitics.in

MIRAGE 2000 TO BE UPGRADED WITH MULTI-FUNCTION DISPLAYS

with the Indian government’s ’Make in India’ initiative and of enhancing the defence base of the country. As part of its long-standing commitment to India, the company’s focus has been to significantly develop its industrial footprint in India for which it has been actively partnering with the Indian industry and exploring various opportunities of localizing technologies and platforms, including co-development of products. At the corporate-level, Thales has been focusing extensively on the ‘Go to India’ strategy with a vision to promote India as a sourcing destination for not just its own units but for other foreign companies as well. The objective behind this effort is to build supply chain and technology transfer partnerships keeping long-term value creation in mind for all the stakeholders. Thales has around 300 employees in India and strives to develop local skills and capabilities especially in engineering and business related domains. For decades, Thales has proactively shared knowledge, technical know-how and expertise with the Indian industry. The company will continue to capitalise on its global lineage and expertise to support the Indian government in realising its defence modernisation goals.

he upgraded Mirage 2000 fighter aircraft will be installed with India-made multi-function displays under an Indo-French partnership, as part of a programme to enhance the operational life of multirole fighters by around 20 years. Samtel Thales Avionics Ltd (STAL), a joint venture between Samtel Avionics and French firm Thales, has successfully dispatched the first batch of multi-function displays for Mirage 2000 upgrade programme of the Indian Air Force from the newly-commissioned production facility in Greater Noida. “Samtel Thales Avionics thus becomes the only Indo-French partnership in defence space in India to have a high-technology product in produc-

tion for a major offset programme, and is the only company in India eligible for more Mirage 2000 MLU displays,” according to an industry source. The potential of this project is valued at approximately `100 crores, to be released over the next 3 years. The latest multi-functional displays are part of the programme to upgrade all of India’s Mirage 2000H to Mirage 2000-5 MK2 variant with state-of-theart avionics and latest weapon systems to enhance the operational life of multi-role fighters by around 20 years. The entire project is expected to cost about `10,000 crore. French Defence majors Dassault Aviation and Thales have already handed over two upgraded aircraft to India in March. The rest of the about 46 aircraft fleet will be upgraded in Bengaluru under the responsibility of state-run HAL with the complete support and involvement of Dassault Aviation and Thales, the French firms, who are the original manufacturers. The upgrade on the aircraft include a night vision goggle-compatible glass cockpit, advanced navigational systems, advanced Identification Friend or Foe (IFF) system, advanced multi-mode multi-layered radar, fully integrated electronic warfare suite besides others. It also includes a new firing system for Air-toAir MICA missiles. Earlier, Patrice Caine, Chairman and CEO, Thales, who was in India recently had said that India is at the top ten key focus nations for his company.

ELECTRONICS AND THALES UNVEIL THEIR UAS

B Electronics and Thales have unveiled their exclusive tactical unmanned aircraft system for the Polish Gryf requirement at Poland’s MSPO exhibition. The WB Electronics/Thales solution offers a capability that fully meets the Gryf requirements for an armed unmanned aircraft system, and delivers the capability through full Polish industrial collaboration.

— The writer is VP & Country Director, India, Thales

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October 2015

Eight decades of partnership with IAF D

efence and aerospace are among 25 sectors identified under the government’s ‘Make in India’ initiative. As India embarks on ambitious plan to boost domestic manufacturing, Rolls-Royce is committed to support the country’s self-reliance and indigenisation needs. We have been a partner to the Indian Air Force (IAF) since 1932 and are committed to continue this relationship long into the future. We will collaborate and co-develop technologies and products by leveraging the vast Indian engineering talent pool, thus playing a leading role in supporting the ‘Make in India’ initiative.

Support Indian Air Force

Rolls-Royce offers India a unique combination of technology, experience and innovation that can help improve capabilities of customers. We have been supporting IAF in primarily three areas:  We deliver the best possible support to today’s aircraft fleets, including those that have been in service for many years. We are providing our most advanced service support offerings drawing on our experience of best global civil and military practice. Every day, the team is looking for new ways to improve what we do and we are keen to work with the IAF to share our global experience.  We provide mission critical products for meeting today’s needs. More than 750 Rolls-Royce engines of 10 types power a range of Indian Air Force and Indian Navy aircraft. Jaguar has been powered by Adour Mk811 engines since 1981 while Hawk Advanced Jet Trainer is powered by Adour Mk871 to train India’s future pilots. AE 3007 powers Embraer jets on VVIP and surveillance missions. AE 2100 powers the C-130J Hercules. We are committed to providing the IAF with the best value and highest quality products possible.  We offer Indian solutions for India’s future needs. This is the only way to deliver self-reliance and to provide broader benefits to the Indian economy. Beyond the current wave of procurements, it is clear that India wishes to become a global hub for aerospace design, development and manufacturing. Rolls-Royce

is committed to delivering this vision.

Long term commitment to India

For 59 years, Rolls-Royce engines have been Made in India, under license by HAL. In order to create a sustainable, Indian, jet engine ecosystem a broad range of skills and capabilities are required to design, develop, manufacture, sell and support engines. Rolls-Royce is investing in the foundations of this ecosystem as India’s premier gas turbine partner. In terms of design, development and supply chain capability, we have recently announced the recruitment of 500 Rolls-Royce personnel in Bengaluru by 2017. These people will undertake aerospace engineering for customers in

itical products We provide mission cr s. More ed for meeting today’s ne gines of 10 en ce than 750 Rolls-Roy Indian Air of types power a range aircraft y av Force and Indian N

the region as well as support for RollsRoyce’s regional supplier base. Their work will include the development of new tools and technologies that make best use of the capabilities that exist and ensure we continue to develop our partnerships with new and existing Indian suppliers. In terms of manufacturing, International Aerospace Manufacturing Pvt Ltd (IAMPL) is a joint venture between Rolls-Royce and HAL formed in July 2010. The Bengaluru facility is in full production, employing over 140 people and will produce 25,000 aerospace parts for Rolls-Royce in 2015 across a wide range of engine programmes including for the Trent XWB. In terms of product support, Rolls-Royce teams are deployed across India, supporting the Indian Armed Forces and drawing upon our global best practices. This work throughout the life cycle creates a launchpad for the Indian jet engine ecosystem that supports ‘Make in India’ and self-reliance in defence. Rolls-Royce has powered many aircrafts in the armed forces and is passionate about continuing this relationship long into the future. We will support India by delivering ‘better power for a changing world’. — The writer is Vice President, Customer Business-Defence, Rolls-Royce

Steven Gillard

October 2015 www.geopolitics.in

‘Singapore Airshow 2016

AVIATIONCV.COM

will showcase latest, innovative technologies’ The organisers of the Singapore International Airshow plan to make next year’s event (February 16-21, 2016) bigger by positioning the air show as the leading event in Asia-Pacific for showcasing the latest in aerospace technology. Leck Chet Lam, Managing Director, Experia Events, is upbeat about the show. “For 2016, our focus is going to be picking up on some of the evolving (technological) trends,” he said. He spoke to Geopolitics. Excerpts: What will be the major focus of the fifth Singapore Airshow?

Singapore Airshow has grown in influence over the years, becoming a show that is now well known as Asia’s largest and one of the most important aerospace and defence exhibitions in the world. This is in no small part due to the emphasis we place on constantly calibrating our shows and programme offerings to reflect key industry trends and create a dynamic environment for each participant. This will continue to be the focus for Singapore Airshow 2016, with our holistic programme line-up that includes, among others: Strategic Conferences: The Singapore Airshow Aviation Leadership Summit (SAALS) 2016 and the Asia Pacific Security Conference (APSEC) 2016 are two key conferences which will focus on carefully curated discussion topics with the aim of

addressing challenges in the current landscape, and providing opportunities for insightful exchanges and solutions-based discussions. Business Forums: Back by popular demand, the Business Forums focus on the latest developments and business opportunities in the aerospace and aviation markets. Singapore Airshow 2016 will see the debut of both the Aerospace Emerging Technologies Business Forum and Training & Simulation Business Forum. The popular Asia Business Forum will also make its return in 2016. Expanded Zone Areas: These specialised zones showcase up and coming sectors of the industry and provide a platform for networking and the development of new partnerships with businesses and governments from around the world. Singapore Airshow 2016 will see the introduction of the Aerospace Emerging Technolo-

www.geopolitics.in

October 2015

gies Zone and Business Aviation Zone as well as an enhanced Training and Simulation Zone. Technology Seminars: Held in a dedicated section in the main exhibition hall, the Technology Seminars will offer exhibitors the opportunity to showcase their latest and most innovative technologies. Visitors will have various opportunities to gain an in-depth understanding of the design and technological considerations behind the products and solutions, exchange ideas and discuss potential issues with the presenters. With these programmes and other colocated events, we are confident that we will provide a holistic experience for all visitors and showcase the best that the industry has to offer.

France is the feature country at the Singapore Airshow 2016. How do you choose your

feature country? What can visitors expect to see?

The Feature Country series was first introduced at the Singapore Airshow in 2014 to spotlight on countries which have strong and thriving businesses in the aerospace, defence and aviation sectors. It offers companies exhibiting in the Feature Country pavilion increased exposure through access to specific activities and programmes which includes, for example, specially facilitated meetings with VIP delegations. These companies will be able to leverage the Feature Country platform to better explore and tap into the rich opportunities available in the Asia Pacific market. France has been chosen as the Singapore Airshow 2016 Feature Country because of its position as a major player in the aviation industry. It is a key global aerospace services and products exporter, with an aerospace, defence and security industry worth 47.9 billion Euros. French aviation companies have consistently had a strong presence at the Singapore Airshow and we are confident that France will successfully leverage its Feature Country status and chart new heights in showcasing its latest technologies and innovations at Singapore Airshow 2016.

Singapore Airshow 2014 was a great success: Deals worth US$32 billion were signed and 1,018 companies participated. What are your expectations from the upcoming show? We are thrilled that the 2014 edition of Singapore Airshow was the biggest yet, attracting over 45,000 trade attendees and more than 100,000 public visitors. We are expecting the same numbers or more for the 2016 show as the team continues to work hard to ensure an even better experience for all our exhibitors, delegates and participants. Looking forward, more than 90 per cent of exhibition space has also been taken up at Singapore Airshow 2016, 75 per cent of which are returning exhibitors and industry heavyweights. In addition, companies including BSB Aviation, CWT Defence Services and Aviage will participate in the Sin-

gapore Airshow for the first time in next year’s edition, highlighting the show’s position as the leading global platform of choice for companies, and a catalyst for growth in the aerospace and defence sector.

The Singapore Airshow has been viewed by many as a civil show with a military presence. Is this still the case, and how is this evolving?

Singapore Airshow is one of the few multifaceted events in the region that combines defence and commercial aviation in one strategic location. The show has been consistently successful in bringing together the largest number of high-level defence delegations and leading industry players from national airlines, airport operators, related industries and top level government officials to learn about the latest aerospace and defence technologies, network and do business in this dynamic region. So, this aspect of the show will not change, but we will continue to evolve with the industry and stay relevant.

The Singapore Airshow Aviation Leadership Summit (SAALS) and the Asia Pacific Security Conference (APSEC) will be held with the show. What kind of response have you got for these two meets? As mainstays at Singapore Airshow, the Singapore Airshow Aviation Leadership Summit (SAALS) and the Asia Pacific Security Conference (APSEC) have always been well received by participants and are highly anticipated as they make their return at each edition. Together, they offer a unique platform for thought leadership, bringing together leading industry players, government and military chiefs to engage in dialogues, exchange ideas and seek solutions and strategies to advance the interests of the aerospace and aviation sector. We are currently in the midst of working with the Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore (CAAS), International Air Transport Association (IATA) and the Singapore Ministry of Transport (MOT) for the Singapore Airshow Aviation Leadership Summit (SAALS) and the S. Rajaratnam School

LECK CHET LAM

October 2015 www.geopolitics.in

of International Studies (RSIS) for the Asia Pacific Security Conference (APSEC) to finalise the line-up of speakers, themes and key topics for the conferences.

There are now several shows in the region stretching from Singapore to Dubai. Is there enough space for so many shows and don’t you think fatigue will set in sooner rather than later? There has indeed been an increase in the number of shows in the region, and this is truly a testament to the progress of the industry and the increasing importance of the Asia Pacific region as a key driver of growth. This is exactly the reason why Singapore Airshow has been constantly innovating, and looking for ways to keep ahead of key trends and developments in the industry with our wide range of programmes. We will not cease in striving to provide the best show for each and every participant and it is this pursuit of consistently raising the bar in our delivery which will set us apart and put us in good stead as we look to further growth going forward.

How do you create a differentiator? How are you different from Dubai, Paris and Farnborough?

The Asia Pacific region has recently overtaken Europe and now has the second largest commercial air transport fleet after North America, according to ICF International. In 2014, more than a quarter of trade attendees at the Singapore Airshow came from the Asia Pacific region, excluding Southeast Asia. Singapore Airshow has leveraged on its strategic location at the heart of the Asia Pacific region to establish a key global platform offering rich business and networking opportunities for companies looking to tap into the thriving Asia Pacific region and beyond. In addition, Singapore Airshow has been consistently successful in bringing together the largest number of high-level delegations, policy-makers and major industry players from the Asia Pacific region and around the world. This key proposition underscores its importance in delivering rich networking opportunities, fostering collaborations and continually enhancing the experience for all participants. This strong focus on continually attracting and retaining a global audience complements our unique geographical advantage, and are key points of differentiation that have enabled us to create a show that is in sync with trends and developments in the region.

LCH flies higher… AL successfully carried out H the high-altitude trials of the indigenously designed and

developed attack chopper, the Light Combat Helicopter (LCH), at Leh recently. “These seasonal trials – including cold weather trials carried out at Leh during February this year – have been completed as part of the certification process. The flight trials at Leh have established hover performance and low speed handling characteristics of the helicopter under extreme

weather conditions at different altitudes (3200 to 4800 m). During the trials, the helicopter and systems performed satisfactorily. LCH also has proven its capability to land and take off at Forward

Landing Base in Siachen. “LCH is the first attack helicopter to land in Forward Bases at Siachen”, said T. Suvarna Raju, CMD, HAL. The trials were carried out on the third prototype of LCH (TD3) at Leh at temperatures ranging from 13 to 27 degrees centigrade. Various tests included assessment and validation of flight envelope in ‘Hot-andHigh’ conditions, culminating in landing at forward bases at geographic elevations of 13,600 feet to 15,800 feet.

RAAF A330 MRTT refuels F-35 fighter

A RM launches IAF-HAL e-portal

n Airbus A330 Multi Role Tanker Transport (A330 MRTT) of the Royal Australian Air Force has successfully refuelled a F-35A Joint Strike Fighter of the US Air Force. During a four-hour sortie from Edwards AFB, California, the tanker, known in RAAF service as

the KC-30A, conducted 59 contacts including five “wet contacts” during which 19,600kg (43,200lb) of fuel were passed. All the refuelling was performed by the A330 MRTT’s Airbus Airborne Refuelling Boom System (ARBS).

aksha Mantri (RM) Manohar Parrikar launched the IAF-HAL e-Portal at HAL Corporate Office. This is the first inter organisation information sharing system (IOIS) under the Digital India initiative between a defence service organisation and a defence PSU. Welcoming the initiative, Parrikar hoped that the e-portal would synergise the competencies of Indian Air Force and HAL. He exhorted to take utmost care while managing the portal which provides authentic information to the stake holders involved besides saving considerable time and eliminating the need for frequent joint meetings at various levels.

BEL’s Integrated Test Bed Facility

harat Electronics Ltd (BEL) has established an Integrated Test Bed Facility at its Bengaluru Complex for Missile and Weapon Systems Integration. The Integrated Test Bed Facility is a first-ofits-kind in India for testing and integration of Missile and Weapon Systems. The test bed is spread over an area of 14 acres consisting of nine concrete hard stands, strategically positioned to verify various interfaces between the combat elements of Missile Systems under complex threat conditions, including ECCM scenarios.

Boeing receives order for Apache & Chinook A330 MRTT out of Japanese race

irbus has announced that it is no longer in the race in Japanese bid for an air-toair refuelling tanker aircraft. Airbus’ defence division says that the terms of the tender favoured its US rival Boeing. Japan’s government had said in June that it wants four tankers to supplement its existing four Boeing 767-based tankers. Japanese Ministry of Defence spokeswoman, recently confirmed that a request for proposals (RFP)

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has been issued. As reported by Reuters, Airbus said the RFP allowed Japan to buy tankers under the US government’s foreign military sale mechanism, which involves the two governments negotiating the contract directly. This mechanism, Airbus said, did not allow for a fair price comparison between its A330-based multi-role tanker transport or MRTT and similar offerings from rival firms.

October 2015

he Indian Ministry of Defence (MoD) has finalised its order with Boeing for production, training and support of Apache and Chinook helicopters that will greatly enhance India’s capabilities across a range of military and humanitarian missions. India will receive 22 AH64E Apache attack helicopters and 15 CH-47F Chinook heavy-lift helicopters. Both are the newest models. India is the 14th nation to select the Apache and the 19th nation to select the Chinook.

Counter-UAV System from Airbus Defence and Space

irbus Defence and Space has developed a Counter-UAV System which detects illicit intrusions of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) over critical areas at long ranges and offers electronic countermeasures minimizing the risk of collateral damage. The system offers very high effectiveness by combining sensor data from different sources with latest data fusion, signal analysis

and jamming technologies. It uses operational radars, infrared cameras and direction finders from Airbus Defence and Space’s portfolio to identify the drone and assess its threat potential at ranges between 5 and 10 kilometers. Based on an extensive threat library and realtime analysis of control signals, a jammer interrupts the link between drone and pilot and/or its navigation.

Bell’s tilt-rotor innovation B

ell helicopter is working on a new tilt-rotor technique for an aircraft in the civilian market that takes off like a helicopter and cruises like a plane. That dream first took shape almost two decades ago in a partnership with Boeing for a commercial aircraft based on the pioneering tilt-rotor technology behind the V-22 Osprey. Boeing bowed out early and Bell

handed off its work in 2011 to AgustaWestland, which is still developing the aircraft. Now, Bell is working on a new tilt-rotor aircraft to be demonstrated to the US military as a possible replacement for the UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter. The V-280 could be cheap enough to appeal to civilian customers as well, Chief Executive Officer John Garrison said.

Lockheed Martin’s Desert Hawk 3 T

he UK Ministry of Defence has awarded Lockheed Martin a contract to support its Desert Hawk 3 unmanned aerial system and establish it as a Core Defence Capability. The Desert Hawk is designed for surveillance and intelligence gathering operations in harsh weather conditions. The Desert Hawk 3 has clocked over 30,000 flight hours, and is one of the latest developments in unmanned aerial surveillance systems. Extremely mobile, weighing only eight pounds, the Desert Hawk 3 is hand-launched in the air,

where it can be flown for up to 90 minutes at a time. An additional upgrade makes launching easier. The UK is the primary operator of the Desert Hawk, which has also been used by the United States.

LM’s GMLRS Alternative Warhead

$400-million plan to procure Heron TP drones

lobal security manufacturing giant Lockheed Martin received its first contract for its new Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System Unitary (GMLRS). The contract is part of a $227 million deal with the US Army and includes a US government Foreign Military Sale of GMLRS rockets to Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates. Other customers of previous versions of the rocket include France, Germany, Italy, the UK, Japan, Jordan and Singapore. The GMLRS is designed to operate under abnormal weather conditions and is used to deliver accurate strikes on targets beyond the reach of conventional weapons. The Alternative Warhead specializes in delivering a punch with a lower risk of unexploded ordnance. This can give operators on the field more confidence that the device will detonate when employed.

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ndia has cleared a $400-million proposal for buying armed Heron TP drones from Israel to enhance its crossborder strike military capability. The acquired drones will be operated by the Indian Air Force which already has a fleet of reconnaissance drones. IAF also has a fleet of Harpy UAVs from Israel, which are selfdestructing systems primarily tasked with taking out enemy radar positions. As reported by the ET, the acquired armed drones may join the service within a year. However, the armed forces had proposed buying the same armed drones in 2012. Israel’s armed Heron drones are similar to the Predator unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) that are capable of reconnaissance, combat and support roles.

geopolitics OCTOBER 2015 | www.geopolitics.in

HEADING FOR EUROPE Is she a refugee or a migrant?

EPA

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Burma’s President, Thein Sein, shakes hands with opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi EPA

THE NOVEMBER ELECTIONS IN MYANMAR Which direction will democracy move in Yangon? Politics will not remain as closed in the country as it was in the past, writes BALADAS GHOSHAL, even though the ultimate power will remain with the Army

yanmar, formerly known as Burma, will have its nationwide elections for the first time on November 8 this year since President Thein Sein abandoned his military uniform and donned a civilian one to initiate certain political and economic reforms,

albeit under the still-controlled political and economic environment. The earlier general elections of 2010 were held under the strict supervision of the military junta which was still ruling the country and in which large-scale intimidation, fraud and rigging were used to push through its guided political engineering

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and the country’s leading political party, the National League for Democracy, led by Myanmar’s democracy icon, Aung San Suu Kyi still in prison, did not participate, undermining the legitimacy of the elections in the eyes of both Myanmar people and the international community. The November election is historic, as there

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will be real competition between political parties and candidates in a general election. Despite many shortcomings like the disenfranchisement of more than 525,000 members of the Rohingya community –

Military’s supreme role in the Constitution of 2008 Free and fair elections, however, do not automatically mean that Myanmar will move towards genuine democracy and civilian supremacy in the political and eco-

BEACON OF DEMOCRACY: A file photo of Myanmar democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi being sworn in at Myanmar’s lower house of Parliament EPA

or by some estimates roughly two-thirds of Myanmar’s Muslim minority population of 800,000 to a million due to expiry of temporary citizenship cards and a flawed citizenship application process and inaccurate voter lists, the coming elections are expected to be relatively free and fair. The military-dominated Union Election Commission, which is ultimately responsible for organising and managing the process – even though chaired by Tin Aye, a former high-ranking general in the previous junta, has been trying its level best to make the elections appear fair by inviting foreign and domestic election monitors and agreeing on a code of conduct for civil service organisations, together with seeking advice and technical assistance from various sources, including the well-regarded International Foundation for Electoral Systems. Whether the present government under Thein Sein intends to have a free and fair elections or not, it must appear to be doing so, for that serves not only its purpose to gain legitimacy from the international community but also helps the government to attract much-needed foreign investment without which it cannot sustain its economic development projects.

nomic life of the country when viewed in the context of the crucial role of the army crafted and enshrined in its 2008 Constitution. Article 436 of that constitution, which is still in force and unlikely to be amended in the near future, gives the military one-quarter of the seats in the upper and lower houses of the national Parliament and one-third of the seats in the state/regional parliaments. Amending

Article 436 of Myanmar’s constitution, which is still in force, gives the military one-quarter of the seats in the upper and lower houses of the national Parliament and onethird of the seats in the state/ regional parliaments

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the Constitution is made practically impossible, as that will require more than 75 per cent of the vote in parliament, which only means that any government or parliament trying to bring any change in the constitution must have control over the remaining 75 per cent members. That is again practically impossible making the military’s mandated 25 per cent presence an effective veto power over any proposed changes. More importantly, civilian supremacy and its control over the military is unknown in the entire post-independent history of Myanmar except perhaps a brief interlude during the early democratic phase of U Nu administration in the 1950s. Even then, on many important issues relating to national unity and security of the country, it was the army which always called the shots, and even forced U Nu to transfer power to the military to take over power on a care-taker basis. Beside the reserved seats of the armed forces, the military ensured its leading role by making a provision in the constitution of having most state powers either vested in the president or subject to his influence or direction, or concentrated in the commander in chief of the armed forces, leaving no scope for an effective separation of powers among the President, the Parliament, the judiciary, and the armed forces. Furthermore, Chapter XI of the constitution grants the National Defence and Security Council (NDSC)—composed of the President, both Vice Presidents, the two speakers of the national Parliament, the commander in chief of the armed forces and his deputy, and the ministers of defence, home affairs, border affairs, and foreign affairs—powers to impose martial law, disband parliament, and rule directly, but only if the President declares a state of emergency. And it provides a legal sanction to the military to reimpose direct military rule. The 2008 constitution also provides for the members of the armed forces certain distinct and special privileges, representation in state institutions as well as widespread immunities. Most significant for the military’s dominance over the civilian authority, the constitution clearly states that the ministers of defence, home affairs, and border must also be drawn from the ranks of the military, eliminating any scope for civilian control over these critical ministries that have a hand over the levers of power in any government. These ministers report directly to the commander in chief of the armed forces, rather than the President of the country. Indeed, military officers, active and retired, occupy most of the senior positions

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ETHNIC PLIGHT: A file photo of Myanmar’s Rohingya muslims in a boat fleeing from Myanmar

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in government ministries, state enterprises, and important public institutions such as the Myanmar Investment Commission and the Union Election Commission. Under changed domestic environment and to court the international community for its legitimacy, the military went quite far to effectively relinquish control over a range of social and economic spheres but doggedly preserved its control over conflict management, internal security, border affairs, internal military affairs, and the overarching NDSC. And it is prepared to tolerate any challenge to its corporate interests and to its dominance in the politics of the country, at least not for the time being. The military’s determination to retain its power and influence, as well as to control the pace and direction of democratic change was evident more recently when President Thein Sein with the support of the former forcibly ousted Shwe Mann, the powerful Speaker of the Lower House of Parliament from the Chairmanship of the military-dominated ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) and moved his own loyal officials into place. Shwe Mann, an ex-general turned reformer who has openly courted Myanmar’s democratic icon, Aung San Suu Kyi, was perceived by the military institution as too ambitious and a possible threat to its authority and dominance. Most analysts of the Myanmar political scene believe that Shwe Mann was removed from the party’s top position to pave the way for Thein Sein’s second term as President, to curb his efforts to reduce the military’s in-

fluence in parliament and the perception that he has been working in alliance with Aung San Suu Kyi. There has been speculation that a deal was made between Aung San Suu Kyi and Shwe Mann which might have involved the NLD backing Shwe Mann to be President, in return for him pushing through constitutional amendments to make Aung San Suu Kyi eligible to be president. Whatever might be the motive behind Shwe Mann’s ouster it is a signal that the armed forces leadership is not prepared to tolerate any challenge to its authority. The army’s compulsion to keep its grip over political power can be explained more by its economic interests. The political economy of the country is such that the armed forces control most of the economic activities of the country.

Suu Kyi is constitutionally barred from running for President, because Article 59F of the 2008 Constitution disqualifies anyone with ‘legitimate children’ owing “allegiance to a foreign power”, i.e. with nationality of another country

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NO TO ROHINGYA: A Buddhist Monk during a anti-Rohingya muslim protest

Unlike in Indonesia and Thailand where the military got involved in businesses as they consolidated their political control in course of time, in Burma the take-over was simultaneous. Branded the “Burmese Way to Socialism,” this meant that almost all private property was confiscated and handed over to a number of military-run state corporations. There are few major enterprises which are not directly or indirectly controlled by the military, or by businessmen affiliated with the military, like the powerful, 43-year-old tycoon Tay Za, who is close to junta leader Gen. Than Shwe and his family. His Htoo Trading Company was one of two main contractors that built Burma’s new administrative capital, Naypyidaw. The other was the Asia World Group, which is headed by Tun Myint Naing, or Steven Law, the son of Lo Hsing-han, who in the 1970s was branded by US authorities as “the king of opium in Burma’s sector of the Golden Triangle.” Across Myanmar, the national army has for years pursued a policy of “living off

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the land”. Battalions are obliged to become their own farmers and businessmen in order to feed themselves and pay their wages.

The Elections and possible Scenario

Depending on the outcome of the elections, even within the limitations imposed by the 2008 Constitution guaranteeing the dominance of the military in the political and economic life of the country, there is room for manoeuvre in shaping the evolution of the future course of military-civilian relations and of democracy. Let us first look into the mechanism of the election before we prognosticate on that. The elections will be conducted in two stages. The first vote, scheduled to be held on November 8, will be under a first-past-the-post system for the national Parliament’s upper and lower houses, as well as for legislatures in the country’s 14 regions and states. In all, 1,142 people will be elected to the Assembly of the Union (Pyidaungsu Hlut-

taw) and to the regional assemblies. The Assembly of the Union – the nationallevel bicameral legislature of Myanmar – is made up of a 440-seat lower house (House of Representatives, Pyithu Hluttaw) and a 224-seat upper house (House of Nationalities, Amyotha Hluttaw). We have already noted that a quarter of all seats in the national parliament are reserved for military appointees. At present, Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) holds altogether 336 seats in the upper and lower houses. These were won in the general election in 2010 which had been boycotted by the main opposition party, the National League of Democracy (NLD). The NLD has 41 members of Parliament who were elected during the by-elections in 2012. In the lower house, the government, consisting of the USDP and the military holds 322 seats, while the other political parties hold 109 seats. The second stage will be to elect the President and two Vice Presidents, sometime after the new Parliament convenes

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October 2015

on or after January 31, 2016. So far, 93 political parties had registered to take part, mostly small and ethnic parties but only four with a national presence. Identity based on their ethnic affiliations, and lack of an ideology characterizes these parties, as few differentiate themselves on programmes. This is nothing unique of Myanmar. As in other Southeast Asian countries, politics is personalized and voters choose between parties based on their leaders. Even the most popular political party in Myanmar, the National League for Democracy is no exception to that. People look toward its leader, the charismatic Suu Kyi, but not necessarily about the party’s position on issues. Because of this, despite the enduring national appeal Suu Kyi, even the NLD faces an uphill battle in ethnic minority areas, such as parts of Shan, Kachin and Rakhine states. Ethnic parties are politically powerful in many of these regions, where the NLD remains strongly associated with the country’s majority Burman elite. Despite the party’s outreach efforts in minority constituencies, many of its leaders, including Suu Kyi, have struggled to avoid coming across as out of touch with the concerns of non-Burman ethnic groups. In several ethnic states, most prominently Rakhine, the NLD runs the risk of being isolated, as popular ethnic minority parties compete with one another for votes and the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) acts as the principal potential spoiler. While the NLD proved that it could appeal to ethnic minority voters during subsequently nullified elections in 1990, its popularity among these groups 25 years later remains largely untested. The party’s sweeping victory in the 2012 by-elections, in which it won 43 of the 44 seats it contested in both regional and national Parliaments, took place almost exclusively in areas dominated by the ethnic Burman majority. Suu Kyi is constitutionally barred from running for President, because Article 59F of the 2008 Constitution disqualifies anyone with “legitimate children” owing “allegiance to a foreign power”, i.e. with nationality of another country (Myanmar does not recognize dual citizenship) from doing so. In case her party wins the most seats, she can still wield considerable influence and power by assuming the powerful position of lower house speaker. Thein Sein, the incumbent President and USDP chief, is most likely to be one of the three Presidential candidates. Shwe Mann cannot be ruled out yet as a Presidential contender for he seems to have the support of the domestic constituency

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as well as of the international community whose goodwill is necessary for the government’s legitimacy, provided he is able to rebuild his political capital. Some commentators believe that if Suu Kyi’s party, the NLD, wins a plurality of parliamentary seats, as is likely, then the ethnic parties, which control nearly a third of parliamentary seats, could prove to be the kingmakers. The ethnic parties have formed several coalitions, two of which will be contesting in the elections: the Nationalities Brotherhood Federation (NBF) and the United Nationalities Alliance (UNA). Broadly, the NBF consists of the ethnic parties that successfully contested the 2010 election. The UNA, in contrast, was formed after the 1990 election and is “considered one of the most influential and experienced political alliances operating in the country”. The USDP may win enough seats to fashion a majority coalition with the support of the armed forces faction and some ethnic parties, in which case the NLD, despite winning the most seats in Parliament, could still remain in opposition. On the other hand, some ethnic parties – especially those that have suffered at the hands of the military, such as the relatively important Shan parties – could join forces with the NLD to forge a majority coalition. Whichever way the future scenario emerges – a NLD-dominated coalition or a USDP-sponsored coalition with the support of the ethnic parties, politics will not remain the same as it was in the past.

Myanmar is no longer a closed system dominated entirely by the military, as it was under the regime of the junta. Within the span of last five years, Myanmar has witnessed considerable openness that provided opportunities for the resumption of legal political activity and discussion (including, to some extent, in the domestic media), something that had been impossible for most of the last half-century. The generational transition within the military; the separation between military and government; and the introduction of regional legislatures and a limited devolution of governance did create a new political space. Some of these developments are still quite tentative, not all may prove positive, but they did represent change and opportunity in a situation that had been frozen for many years. The other political, economic and administrative reforms undertaken by the military-backed government include the establishment of the National Human Rights Commission, a general amnesty of political prisoners (though many still remain in jail), institution of new labour laws that allow unions and strikes, relaxation of press censorship, regulations of currency practices and the passing of a new investment law easing restrictions on foreign ownership of industries, offering tax breaks and land leases. There is also now a proliferation of journals and magazines that began in 2008 that gives coverage to greater issues. Even foreign journalists who previously had to work discreetly or faced

October 2015 www.geopolitics.in

TOWARDS PEACE: President of Myanmar Thein Sein (L) shakes hand with Naing Han Tha (C), leader of the Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team (NCCT) as Padoh Kwe Htoo Win (R), of the Karen National Union, a member of the ethnic armed groups’ National Ceasefire Coordination Team (NCCT) looks on after they signed the nationwide ceasefire draft agreement at Myanmar Peace Center in Yangon

blacklisting and surveillance, now enjoy regular access to the country, and can generally report without undue interference even if they are on travelling tourist visas. The government has also allowed the public to have access to satellite television. Changes set in motion once have its own political dynamics that promotes further changes. Besides, not all military leaders are averse to change as there are both hard-liners and reformers with the armed forces. Some undoubtedly would like to stick to the past doggedly, and there are others who want to reform the political system for their own benefits, for they believe there could be other ways of achieving the goals of peace, security, and national integrity, and particularly when they consider the past failure over the last six decades to achieve that. However, even the reformers will not like to cross the red line that would undermine the Army’s overall political role and its corporate interests. Four main interests will guide the armed forces in their response to the future civilian government: (i) to maintain institutional autonomy to conduct its own affairs away from parliamentary or government oversight; (ii) exclusion of control over its budget; (iii) inhibit attempts to prosecute current and former military members, and (iv) keeping certain policy domain, especially security portfolios, from civilian control. The author is Secretary General, Society for Indian Ocean Studies

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CONSTITUTIONAL MENACE: Nepal Riot police using a water cannon to disperse demonstratorsÂ after the new constitution was drafted

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A NEW CONSTITUTION BUT A DIVIDED NATION

It would have been better if the adamant Nepali leadership had postponed the promulgation of the constitution and worked out an acceptable solution to the Madhesis and the Janjathis without bulldozing the draft, argues S CHANDRASEKHARAN

n September 20, President Ram Baran Yadav formally promulgated the new Constitution. The Government had also declared two days of holidays to celebrate the ushering in of the Constitution and the people were asked to celebrate the occasion as one does in Diwali.

While Kathmandu and its environs were in a festive mood with celebrations and official parties and meetings at the central Tundikhel Maidan, there was gloom in the southern Terrain Districts of Nepal. The Madhesis (people of Indian origin occupying the southern plains) observed the day as one of mourning with

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October 2015

people demonstrating with black flags. At some places the police had to resort to firing resulting in deaths. There was considerable destruction of property too. Copies of the new Constitution were also symbolically burnt at many centres in south. This was unfortunate. A day of celebration became a day of mourning in the

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south and a Constitution that should have united the nation did the opposite: Divide the nation! The new Constitution is the outcome of over eight years of discussions among political parties, particularly the top three – the Nepali Congress, Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) CPN (UML) and the Maoists of Prachanda of Unified Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) UCPN (M) and the members of the present Interim Constituent Assembly and the previous one. While the initial attempts were to find a consensus of all parties and to produce a draft acceptable to a majority of the people, it turned out that the final draft was passed on by a ‘two-thirds mandate’ given in the Constitution in the event of being unable to get a consensus. What unfortunately happened was that the top three political parties bulldozed a draft accepted mutually by themselves little realising that the two-thirds mandate was for “drafting“ a Constitution and not for imposing it on marginalised and minority groups! The new Constitution is a departure from the past in having a federal structure. It is described as a federal democratic republican Constitution with ‘secular characteristics’. It is in 35 parts with 305 articles and nine annexes. The final Constitution was voted in the second interim Parliament with 507 votes in an assembly of 598 members. It is, therefore, said with much jubilation by the leaders of the three main parties that over 90 per cent of the people have voted for the new Constitution. This is statistically correct though nearly 40 per cent of the populace of the country are unhappy with the new dispensation. The country will have seven provinces though earlier the three major parties and the Madhesi Group led by Bijay Gacchadar agreed on a six-province formula. The seventh that included the hilly region of Jumla and parts of the central region where the indigenous population of Tharus dominate was agreed to by the big three after a few days of agitation in that region that resulted in the death of three persons. The creation of the seventh province centred around the district of Jumla resulted in the exit of the only Madhesi group that had gone along with the draft of the new Constitution. It is alleged that the new Constitution was for the elite and by the elite! Some interesting features of the new Constitution include cow as a national symbol (This should please royalists like Kamal Thapa of the Rastriya Prajatantra

Party-Nepal (RPP), Nepali as the lingua franca in addition to the use of regional/ local languages and with secular characteristics. The Maoists were said to be adamant in the use the term “secular” in the Constitution in place of “freedom to practice any religion”. A three-tier government is envisaged with federal, provincial and local levels. A few commissions have been formed with one to address the grievances of marginalised communities including the Tharus (the original indigenous community of Nepal), the Madhesis, Muslims, Women and Janajathis. It is generally agreed that the new Constitution is gender-biased and in favour of the male community. Other constitutional provisions that are biased include Article 283 that says that only citizens by descent can hold top executive posts and another Article 11 (6) is said to be specifically aimed to limit the rights of the Madhesis occupying the southern plains. The most important and the critical one is the intention to form a commission to resolve disputes on provincial boundaries to be formed within six months of the promulgation of the Constitution and to make suggestions (only suggestions, not mandatory to accept!) on the numbers, borders of the village council, municipalities, canals and specially protected autonomous regions approved by the government. The most contentious part of the new Constitution is admittedly the one relating to the delineation of the provinces. This was the most serious issue that was agitating the minds of the Madhesis and the Janjathis, who historically for the last 240 years have been marginalised in run-

The new Constitution is the outcome of over eight years of discussions among political parties, particularly the top three – the Nepali Congress, CPN (UML) and the UCPN (M) and the members of the present Interim Constituent Assembly and the previous one

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NO TO SECULARISM: Brawl over new constitution in Nepal’s Parliament

ning the country. Their hopes were shattered when the three top parties (some call it political arrogance) arrogated themselves the decision to form arbitrarily seven provinces that left out five of the Terai districts - Sunsari, Biratnagar, Jhapa in the east and Kailali and Kanchanpur in the west, in the newly formed Terai/Madhesi district in the south. Though names have not been given to the seven provinces that would generate further controversies, the Terain district will be number two while Kathmandu and its environs will be number three. The provinces are supposed to name themselves later after the representative assemblies are elected. There is a view and one PhD scholar has already analysed and found that only the Kathmandu province number three will be economi-

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cally viable followed by the Terain district number two! It is not clear why many of the top leaders of three major parties who got elected from the very same Terai districts were unwilling to let it be part of the Terai province. One reason given is that they probably look at the newly formed Terain district as one like the districts of Bihar. For the last one month and more, there have been violent protests leading to loss of property and loss of lives of innocent people due to police firing. A visitor to the area said that 20 of the 22 Terai districts look like “War Zones”. Vehicles are stranded everywhere. Life has come to a standstill in many of the Terain districts. The Army has been deployed first unofficially and later officially to escort supply laden vehicles safely to the north.

The Indian position on the ongoing promulgation of the new Constitution and the resultant agitation has been a difficult one. While welcoming the progress in Constitution-making, it had urged for flexibility and accommodation on the part of all the stakeholders

Bijay Gacchdar, leader of one of the Terai Groups, who had initially associated himself with the draft Constitution, described the situation thus, “The TeraiMadhe has turned into a battleground... Constitution drafting without addressing the concerns of such a vast population (13.5 million) cannot lead to a sustainable peace.” True, the leaders of the top three parties appear to be insensitive to the travails of the people of Terai/Madhes. They did not make any serious attempt to reach out to the Madhesi leaders and only after the promulgation, Prime Minister Sushil Koirala is said to have met Mahant Thakur leader of one of the agitating groups. Other leaders, including the Maoist Chief Dahal, have generally avoided the Terai. Over 40 lives have been lost and more deaths are likely to occur if the agitation continues. The civil society has already condemned the police action as one of “revenge”. The Indian position on the ongoing promulgation of the new Constitution and the resultant agitation has been a difficult one. While welcoming the progress in Constitution-making, it had urged for flexibility and accommodation on the part of all the stakeholders. It would have been better if the adamant Nepali leadership had postponed the promulgation and work out an acceptable solution to the Madhesis and the Janjathis without bulldozing the draft with the strength in numbers the top three parties had. A desperate bid by the Indian Foreign Secretary two days prior to the promulgation of the Constitution with a message from the Indian Prime Minister had no effect on the Nepali leaders. It was considered as “interference”. The Foreign Secretary had only said that India wished to see that the new Constitution incorporate the concerns of all the stakeholders through dialogue and flexibility. The Indian PM’s concern was about the unrest in the Terai districts which would have a spillover effect on the Indian side when elections are due in Bihar. The international community has generally welcomed the promulgation of the new Constitution. It is a step that was much awaited for eight years. China has been most profuse in welcoming the new Constitution while India appears to be isolated. But the Indian concerns are genuine that need to be addressed by the Nepali leaders, if they are to have a credible and sustainable stability. The author is the founder of South Asia Analysis Group

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GEOPOLITICS OF EUROPE’S REFUGEE

CRISIS As political and military solutions of Syria, Afghanistan and Africa’s civil wars and conflicts are nowhere in sight, the refugee crisis in Europe is not going to disappear in a hurry, writes GULSHAN SACHDEVA

hile delivering his first ‘State of the Union’ speech to the European Parliament, the President of the European Commission Jean Claude Juncker asserted that “there is not enough Europe in this Union. And there is not enough Union in this Union”. He was reviewing the response of the European Union (EU) to various challenges it is facing currently. On top of his agenda was a major refugee crisis which has been unfolding in Europe, particularly in the last few weeks. Still struggling to find solutions for the Eurozone, Greek and the Ukrainian crises, the European elite was hardly prepared to face a serious refugee challenge. At the end of an emergency EU summit meeting, held on September 23, to discuss the refugee issue, the European Council President Donald Tusk warned that “it is clear that the greatest tide of refugees and migrants is yet to come”. Earlier, the EU interior ministers approved a plan to share 120,000 refugees among member states, overriding opposition from four East European

nations – Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Romania with Finland abstaining. While using its right, the UK has ‘opted out‘ from the scheme. Slovakia has already announced that it will not implement quota. The EU leaders also agreed to increase aid to Syria’s neighbours and pledged $1.1 billion to support UN agencies helping Syrian refugees. The economic and financial crisis had already divided Europe between North and South. Now the present crisis has further deepened rifts between East and West Europe. The crisis also shows that now Europe is paying the price for supporting many US policies in the neigbourhood and beyond. The crisis will also further strengthen the rise of right wing anti-immigrant political parties for years to come. With thousands of refugees entering Europe every

October 2015 www.geopolitics.in

day, it may no longer remain a ‘fortress Europe’ for outsiders. Similarly, when desperate countries are erecting fences along their borders and start introducing border checks, the concept of a ‘borderless Europe’ may also come under stress. Analysts have raised concerns that some Islamic State fighters could also be slipping into Europe amid the wave of refugees, which may become a serious security threat in near future. The refugee and migration problem has already been unfolding for some time. This year alone, more than 442,000 people have risked their lives to cross the Mediterranean Sea. Over 2,900 did not survive this dangerous journey. More than 70 people were found dead in an abandoned truck in Austria. Even last year about 3500 people were reported dead or missing in the Mediterranean Sea. Still, about 4,000 people

DIPLOMACY

UNHCR

ARRIVING IN EUROPE: A group of Syrian refugees arriving on the Greek island of Lesvos after crossing the Aegean Sea from Turkey

UNHCR

are arriving to Greek islands daily. According to the European Commission, refugee and migratory flows since last year have increased dramatically through Central Mediterranean route, Eastern Mediterranean route and the Western Balkan route. The Eastern Mediterranean route is defined by the EU agencies as the passage used by migrants crossing through Turkey to the EU via Greece, southern Bulgaria or Cyprus. Similarly, the Central Mediterranean route refers to the migratory flow coming from Northern Africa towards Italy and Malta. The Western Balkan route refers to two major migratory flows. The first one is from the Western Balkan countries. In the second route, movements are from mainly Asian migrants who enter the EU through the Bulgarian-Turkish or Greek-Turkish land or sea borders and then proceed,

through the Western Balkans, into Hungary. Between January and August 2015, about 183,000 and 143,000 reached the EU by Eastern Mediterranean route and the Western Balkan route respectively. This year, 90 per cent people who came to the EU from the Eastern Mediterranean route are from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. For years, these people were seen by many Europeans merely as economic migrants. The images of Syrian toddler Aylan Kurdi whose body was found on Turkish shores after a failed attempt to reach Greece finally shocked the Europeans and the world. Further, chaotic

According to the European Commission, refugee and migratory flows since last year have increased dramatically through Central Mediterranean route, Eastern Mediterranean route and the Western Balkan route

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October 2015

scenes in Central and Eastern Europe, where first the Hungarian and now the Croatian efforts to stop Syrian refugees’ journey towards Germany have brought the issue to the top of the European agenda. These events have also forced European media and its institutions to change the narrative. The UN Refugee Agency United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has clearly declared now that “this is a primarily refugee crisis, not only a migration phenomenon”. The UNHCR has now issued a stark warning saying that the “time was running out for Europe to resolve the current refugee crisis”. The way different EU governments have responded to the present crisis has again exposed structural flaws of common EU policies. The Dublin procedure established that the first EU country where a migrant or refugees enter is responsible for processing his or her asylum claim. This obviously put tremendous pressure on countries like Greece and Italy where most asylum seekers arrived first. In recent months, Hungary has also joined frontline status as refugees are entering its territory from neighbouring Serbia. As most of the asylum seekers want to go to Germany, Sweden, France or Italy, questions are raised as to why register and house them in a country where they do not want to stay anyway. As the system starts crumbling with sudden upsurge in refugees, Germany suspend-

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ed the Dublin procedure. As a humanitarian gesture, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Austrian Chancellor Werner Faymann granted passage to thousands of refugees stranded in Hungary. Suddenly, German Chancellor Angela Merkel was seen as a champion of refugees in Europe. She asserted that “if we now have to start apologising for showing a friendly face in an emergency, then this is not my country”. This was in contrast to the Greek crisis where Chancellor Merkel was depicted in Nazi uniform in Greece for pushing austerity measures and taking control of their economy. Many in the Christian Social Union (CSU), a coalition partner of Chancellor Merkel, are unhappy. Hans-Peter Friedrich, a former CSU interior minister, said that giving free access for migrants massed in Hungary into Germany was “an unprecedented political mistake”. Within two weeks, however, both Germany and Austria have introduced border controls and asked other EU member states to share the burden. In the meanwhile, however, social media in refugee camps in Turkey and the region was full of stories of Germany opening its borders for refugees. Various estimates reported in the media in the last few weeks suggest that about 500,000 to 1 million people are now waiting in the region to travel to Europe by sea. For months, the EU officials are proposing a quota system to distribute migrants among different nations. All 28 EU member states are suggested to accept asylum seekers in proportion to the size of their economy, unemployment rate and population. The UK was already out of the system. Many East Europeans say it will not work as most asylum seekers want to settle in West Europe. Spain and Poland had earlier rejected the plan but now have joined reluctantly. Some have objection to the principle itself. The Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban asserted that “the idea that somebody allows some refugees

in their own country and then distributes them to other member states is mad and unfair”. Later he even added that “the problem is not European, it’s German. Nobody would like to stay in Hungary, neither Slovakia, Poland nor Estonia.” The smaller nations in former Eastern bloc feel that policies are being imposed on them by bigger members. It seems that instead of coming together to work out a permanent solution to handle refugees, many are trying to push refugees back and forth to each other. Many roads and train services have been closed between nations to stop further movement of refugees. Finally, some agreement has been reached on 120,000 refugees. As large numbers are further added to list in the meanwhile, the EU leaders may need many more lists and meetings. The number of asylum seekers in the EU has increased significantly in the last few years. Eurostat data shows that about 625,000 claimed asylum in the EU in 2014. These numbers were around 200,000 in 2008. So the numbers look high but perhaps not as alarming as presented in European media. Europe has seen high numbers even before, particularly during the Yugoslav crisis. In 1992 alone, there were close to 700,000 applications. In the first half of 2015, close to 434,000 people have filed applications for asylum in Europe. Last year, the largest number of asylum seekers came from Syria (20%), followed by Afghanistan (7%), Kosovo (6%), Eritrea (5%), Serbia (3.5%) and Pakistan (3%). In fact, more people from Pakistan

applied for asylum than from Iraq. About one third people applied for asylum in Germany only. One in four asylum seekers was a minor. As per the UNHCR, over 4 million Syrians are now refugees. It is not that all Syrians are moving towards Europe. About 1.9 million has taken refuge in Turkey. Similarly, about 1.1 million and 630000 have European found shelter in Lebanon President of thesion and Jordon respectively. Only Commis a fraction of Syrian refugees have applied for asylum in Europe. Europeans know that they cannot run away from their responsibility as many of these people have become refugees due to European involvement in shaping conflict outcomes in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and Kosovo. Both Russian and Turkish Presidents

“There is not in enough Europdethere this Union. Ahn Union is not enoug ion” in this Un

ncker

Jean Claude Ju

EXPRESS.CO.UK

SEA OF CHAOS: A refugee boat in the Mediterranean sea

October 2015 www.geopolitics.in

ITALIAN NAVY

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have blamed the western world for their policies for this crisis. To tackle the crisis, the EU has urged member states to work out a common strategy based on responsibility and trust. So, instead of accusing each other, can Europe’s nations agree on some joint action? Many new plans including EU-wide border protection force, destruction of smuggler ships, reallocation plan for already entered refugees, list of safe countries of origin (Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Macedonia, Kosovo, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey), more help for Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey and other countries, greater co-operation and dialogue with Turkey, assistance for Balkan states, emergency trust fund for Africa, reception centres closer to conflict areas are being planned and implemented. 12 EU member states have their own list of safe countries. Citizens of these countries are normally not considered

for asylum. Last year, about 185,000 asylum applications were approved by European countries. The list included 47,535 applications in Germany, 33025

As per the UNHCR, over 4 million Syrians are now refugees. It is not that all Syrians are moving towards Europe. About 1.9 million has taken refuge in Turkey. Similarly, about 1.1 million and 630000 have found shelter in Lebanon and Jordon

in Sweden, 20640 in France, 20630 in Italy, 15,575 in Switzerland, and 14065 in the United Kingdom. In the meanwhile, when the EU policy is being framed, many Europeans are putting up walls again. Hungary has almost completed 175 km fence on its border with Serbia. It is also building fences along with its borders with Croatia and Romania. Germany, Austria, Slovakia and Netherlands have introduced temporary border controls. The Hungarian parliament has passed the law which allows its army to use rubber bullets, tear gas grenades and net guns against refugees. In addition, strict punishments including prison terms for illegal border crossing was also been agreed upon. As political and military solutions of Syria, Afghanistan and Africa’s civil wars and conflicts are nowhere in sight, the refugee crisis in Europe is not going to disappear in a hurry. European capacity to shape outcomes in these hot spots is any way limited and also dependent on broader US policy. The places where the EU can have a considerable influence are EU candidate and potential candidate countries in the Western Balkans. This can be done through enlarged political and economic engagement in the region which may reduce migration from Albania, Kosovo, Serbia etc. The UN High Commissioner for Refugees, Antonio Guterres has urged Europe to “reaffirm the values upon which it was built”. The EU and its member States have the capacity to accommodate large numbers. Many nations are, however, overwhelmed with sudden surge in numbers. Few West European countries led by Germany have shown courage to accept large numbers of refugees. Still the message from the Hungarian Prime Minister to Syrian refugees was entirely different,”Please don’t come. Why do you have to go from Turkey to Europe? Turkey is a safe country. Stay there, it’s risky to come. We can’t guarantee that you will be accepted here”. Overall, it seems that after months of debate, the EU member states have agreed to a comprehensive approach including a call for a renewed UN-led intervention effort to bring an end to the war in Syria. The crisis, however, has further exposed deep divisions within Europe. The author is Chairperson, Centre for European Studies, School of International Studies, JNU

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October 2015

RIGHT ANGLE

GLOBALISING INDIAN MIC N ot long before he left this mortal world, former President A P J Abdul Kalam had stressed the importance of having a long-term defence strategy and vision for defence industry growth. He was keen on India establishing a military-industrial complex involving large private industries. “The need of the hour is to establish a military-industry complex (MIC) at the national level enlisting large and medium industries to be partners along with defence PSUs (Public Sector Units) as its members,” Kalam had said at an event of Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India in May this year. However, a MIC for Kalam was not collaboration simply between Indian PSUs and Indian corporate houses. “Encouraging high technology tie-ups Prakash and joint ventures between Indian and other global defence industries will achieve not only competitiveness but also envisage the product for export,” he had underlined. In my considered view, the former President was bang on. MICs these days are getting increasingly globalised. Take, for instance, the case of the United States, the world’s foremost military power. Incidentally, the term “military industrial complex” was coined in the United States by President Dwight Eisenhower during the Cold War to welcome the emergence of what is termed as “the second era” of the American MIC. During the first era, which lasted from 1787 to 1941, the defence sector in the United States consisted totally of government-owned arsenals and shipyards. However, with the United States participating in World War II, President Franklin Roosevelt established the “War Production Board” by conscripting the major private industries, particularly those in the automobile sector, into wartime service. But after the war ended, not only these private companies, such as Boeing and General Motors stayed and consolidated their involvement in the military sector, but they were also joined by others like AT&T, General Electric and IBM. One of the important features of this second era was that the Pentagon financed the private sector, which, in turn, created world class technologies that were for use by not only the military but also by ordinary citizens. One can cite in this regard the examples of drones, night vision goggles, GPS in cars, and what is most important, the Internet. The end of the Cold War in the 1990s saw the emergence of the “third era” (and this is prevailing at the moment), whose important features are as follows. First, industry shifted from diversified conglomerates and was managed by defence-only firms. Secondly, the contribution of the Pentagon, both financially and technologically, has been declining, thanks to the shrinking defence budgets. As a result, and this is the third feature, American MICs are increasingly buying commercial technologies (either buying or giving these technology-providers shares) such as cloud computing, cyber security, nanotechnology and even smart phones. See how Google acquired Boston Dynamics that had created BigDog, a four-legged robot that can support soldiers in rough terrain. However, these features are proving increasingly insufficient to sustain the US defence industry. Though it is courting commercial companies, it only prefers the American ones. It is not

globalising itself properly, shunning the option of co-producing weapon systems abroad with allies and friends the way the Japanese and Koreans are developing their technologies and manufacturing brands in foreign countries, from where they are exporting them to various parts of the world. America’s F-35 example, by distributing the burden of the development cost of the fifth generation fighter plane with some NATO allies, is said to be not enough. It is no wonder that William J Lynn III, a former US Deputy Secretary of Defence and CEO of Finmeccanica North America and DRS Technologies, argues for starting a new fourth era in which the Pentagon must take a more active role in recruiting outside companies, “keeping in mind that their futures are Nanda inextricably intertwined”. According to him, “The United States has the opportunity to look beyond its borders to turn this fourth era to its advantage. Since World War II, the country’s technological advantages have protected its national security. To maintain that advantage, the United States must adapt to – and ultimately embrace – the trends that will come to define its future.” Can India fit into this scheme of things, particularly when Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s much-repeated calls for the “Make in India” programme continues to remain in the headlines? Can Kalam’s thesis that “encouraging high technology tieups and joint ventures between Indian and other global defence industries will achieve not only competitiveness but also envisage the product for export” bring in the India-US joint development of defence products? Well, US Ambassador to India Richard Verma appears to think so. According to him, the US can help India fill a key gap in its defence architecture by collaborating with it to build the planes that are needed to safeguard India’s airspace. “India faces a critical shortage of frontline fighter aircraft to patrol its skies and keep its airspace safe,” Verma said the other day, adding, “expanding our bilateral defence cooperation could help address that challenge. I see no reason why the United States and India cannot build fighter aircraft together, right here in India.” Of all the military products, it is those relating to the Indian Air Force that holds the maximum potentials of the joint development and joint productions in India between India and the foreign vendors. As Air Chief Arup Raha has told this magazine in this issue, “Modernisation of the IAF is an on-going process based on the concept of capability building. Continuous upgradation of the combat potential of our aircraft, systems and Air Defence network in terms of numbers, lethality, modern sensors and weapons, as well as networking them, along with enhanced airlift and heli-lift capabilities, are planned to meet the future challenges to our security.” Presently, the IAF has 35 active fighter Squadrons against Government-authorised strength of 42 Squadrons. The shortfall in fighter aircraft strength has to be planned and made good to achieve the sanctioned strength by what Raha says the end of the 14th Plan period. And for this, India’s MIC has to be globalised.

October 2015 www.geopolitics.in

prakashnanda@newsline.in

Postal Reg No. DL(E) 01/5363/2014-16, RNI No. DELENG/2010/35319, Publication Date: 1st of every month, Posting Date: 8-9th every month

ON THIS DAY WE’RE PROUD TO BE A FORCE BEHIND THE INDIAN AIR FORCE. HAPPY AIR FORCE DAY.

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