COVER STORY (P48)
In contrast to the other two sister services, the Indian Navy is transforming itself from being a Buyer’s Navy to becoming a Builder’s Navy, with the construction of stateof-the-art stealth warships.
NAVY.MIL
PERFECTING THE ART OF DECEPTION
SPECIAL REPORT (P12)
ISRO
CRYPTOME.ORG
PANORAMA (P10)
ISRO’S COSMIC CENTUM
NEW-AGE FUEL
With the launch of the PSLV-C21, the Indian Space Research Organisation completed its 100th mission, a milestone in the country’s space journey.
Indo-US cooperation for the exploitation of natural gas could have a much greater impact on India’s energy security than the Indo-US nuclear re-engagement.
DEF BIZ (P18)
FOCUS (P44)
INTERNAL SECURITY (P60)
SMERCH AMMO
MONITORING COASTS
CULLING FOREIGN FUNDS
The Ordnance Factory Board (OFB) has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Russian firms to manufacture the ammunition of the Smerch rocket system.
With the commissioning of Remote Operating Stations as part of Coastal Radar Network, it is time to think beyond ‘trackable but difficult to monitor and identify’ targets to ones that are extremely difficult to detect.
The Union Home Ministry has just pulled the plug on funding to non-governmental organisations by further tightening the Foreign Contribution Regulation Act.
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October 2012
GALLERY.USGS.GOV
HEMANT RAWAT
LOCKHEEDMARTIN
HEMANT RAWAT
EAGLE EYES FOR KASHMIR (P22)
VERSATILE RANGE (P38)
BATTLE OVER THE ARCTIC (P70)
AMBASSADOR’S JOURNAL (P76)
After the Navy’s tender for micro-UAVs the Indian Army has also come up with a similar tender for the Northern Command.
Eurocopter’s Rainer Farid is confident of the prospects of his company in India.
There is a virtual a cold war among leading countries of the world over control over the Arctic.
Colombian Ambassador Juan Alfredo Pinto Saavedra talks about how his country is building innovative economic dynamics with India.
INTERNAL SECURITY (P64) LICENCE TO KILL?
EUROCOPTER
‘Targeted Killing’ is being increasingly used as a tactic by governments the world over to combat counter-insurgencies alarming the Rights-activists.
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DIPLOMACY (79)
Editor-in-Chief
K SRINIVASAN Editor
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SAURAV JHA
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JUSTIN C MURIK
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WITH THEIR RICH MINERAL
Senior Correspondent
RESOURCES AND STRATEGIC
ROHIT SRIVASTAVA
LOCATION, INDIA IS SYSTEMATICALLY
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MOHIT KANSAL
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TIRTHANKAR GHOSH
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STRATEGIC FRIENDSHIP
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ECONOMIC OPTIONS IN THE FIVE
HEMANT RAWAT
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Conceptualised and designed by Newsline Publications Pvt. Ltd., from D-11 Basement, Nizamuddin (East), New Delhi -110 013, Tel: +91-11-41033381-82 for NEWSEYE MEDIA PVT. LTD. All information in GEOPOLITICS is derived from sources we consider reliable. It is passed on to our readers without any responsibility on our part. Opinions/views expressed by third parties in abstract or in interviews are not necessarily shared by us. Material appearing in the magazine cannot be reproduced in whole or in part(s) without prior permission. The publisher assumes no responsibility for material lost or damaged in transit. The publisher reserves the right to refuse, withdraw or otherwise deal with all advertisements without explanation. All advertisements must comply with the Indian Advertisements Code. The publisher will not be liable for any loss caused by any delay in publication, error or failure of advertisement to appear. Owned and published by K Srinivasan, 4C Pocket-IV, Mayur Vihar, Phase-I, Delhi-91 and printed by him at Nutech Photolithographers, B-240, Okhla Industrial Area, Phase-I, New Delhi-110020. Readers are welcome to send their feedback at geopolitics@newsline.in.
COLD WAR OVER THE ARCTIC
geopolitics VOL III, ISSUE V, OCTOBER 2012 `100
D E F E N C E D I P L O M A C Y S E C U R I T Y
MASTER BEING UNDETECTABLE YET LETHAL, SHIVALIK-CLASS SHIPS CAN MEET THE INCREASING MARITIME CHALLENGES
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Cover Design: Artworks Cover Photo: US Navy
LICENCE
TO ELIMINATE
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Euroc upbeatopter India on
DECEIVER
UPGRADING THE COASTAL RADARS
INFANTRY TO GET MINI UAV
The total number of pages in this issue is 84 with cover
October 2012
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GEOPOLITICS
LETTERS
LETTERS TO EDITOR
‘C
REATING A 21st century Industry’ (Geopolitics, August 2012) for defence by Prof Amit Gupta has been able to create confusion without answering much. We have to see everything through the prism that India has been almost a captive market for the arms dealers and even now remains the Big Arms Bazaar. It goes to our credit that the arms industry — mostly in the public domain — has survived despite the vested interests. With great reluctance the doors have started opening to the private sector and it will take some time to catch up. But even the lethargic public sector has more or less lived up to the expectations and delivered the conventional arms and ammo to the armed forces. A country that can be an outsourcing hub for aerospace components, software and is able to meet most of its industrial and consumer needs by in-house production, will surely be able to manufacture AK-47/56 rifles too if allowed and the order size be good enough. That our industry is participating eagerly in the 155x52 gun programme and supplies forgings to foreign arms vendors — there should be no doubt about our capability. Feasible first — ambitions later. Of course, we should have given priority to trainer aircraft while not delaying work on fighters. Now that the MBT
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Arjun and LCA are successful or close to it — there is no use in lamenting on the time lost. The defence learning curve rises slowly and then takes off. With the success of Agni, Akash, Prithvi, etc. and almost total selfreliance in combat engineering and conventional armaments including INSAS, FSAPDS, Shivalik, etc. we are not in that helpless a situation. We could develop HF-24, thanks to the genius of Dr Kurt Tank with the full participation of Indian team using our technologies. We should
have gone to develop HF-25 for which there had been some framework in the late Seventies. But basically our obsession with MiGs and Sukhois, T-72s and T-90s always held us back. The Chinese model, or for that matter indigenisation by reverse engineering of defence stores of merit is the best way out as is being followed all over the world. But re-engineering must be done by those who understand defence technology
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and associated research. DRDO and IDST must get involved even in the reengineering that is being attempted in DPSUs and the private sector till they pick up. Rudimentary equipment. Make no mistake. India, like other nations that have successfully developed the mostcopied AK-47, can also do likewise if it could develop INSAS. Nothing succeeds like success. Joint ventures and transfer of technology and, above all, the import lobby has tied our research hands back tightly. If we launch 100 space missions, develop our cryogenic engine, demonstrate nuclear fission and fusion, can hit target at 5000 km with the Agni and even shoot down missile with missile — we can develop everything on our own. Techno-global partnership can be done on the basis of give-and-take and India cannot be the dumping ground of old technologies. It would be best for the US to join hands with India and develop weapons to be marketed in this part of the world at competitive prices. Regards Air Cmde Raghubir Singh (Retd) Pune All correspondence may be addressed to: Editor, Geopolitics, D-11 Basement, Nizamuddin (East), New Delhi-110013. OR mail to geopolitics@newsline.in.
October 2012
{GOLDENEYE}
g
SAYING ‘NO’ IS SO EASY N
a ji na, tussi na jao utthe! Well that’s the message that the Army has been giving to journalists who want to visit the North-East for an on-the-spot reporting of events from Arunachal Pradesh and other frontline areas in Nagaland and Tripura, the thumbs down. Apparently, they do not want negative reports on the state of the infrastructure that is still being beefed up and, therefore, the discouraging noises. On the other hand, there was the ice-breaking ‘high tea’ that Army Chief Bikram Singh had with beat correspondents at the cavernous Maneckshaw Centre in Delhi Cantonment, almost a month after he had taken charge as
Chief. Singh is a master of the stiff upper lip. He knows what to say and when — having dealt with the media during the Kargil War. And that’s the whole point. Bikram Singh is so seasoned that he doesn’t need to stop the press or keep them at a distance. He’s got the gift of the gab and must actually meet them if not often, at least, selectively to get his perspective across. The clarity and the ability to transcend pressure situations and speak their mind like Admiral Mullen or General David Howell Petraeus (the present director of the CIA) is something that Bikram Singh must address and encourage. It’s easy to say stop but it is difficult to have a conversation. But isn’t that one of the chores of a Chief?
Kashmir Vs Northern Command
K
ashmir these days is calm and quiet except a few stray incidents. The serene appearance is misleading if one accepts the intelligence analysis. In fact, the Army came out with a booklet on the whole AFPSA (Armed Forces Special Powers Act). This was a a precursor to reports that there was a possibility that the Act could be partially withdrawn from J&K. But in the last few weeks, things have gone wrong somewhere. The perception of Army Headquarters and the Northern Command differs and these differences have increased to such a level that the perception-management assets of the Army have begun to complain to both offices about their grievances. Fortunately, before the situation could get out of hand, the Army Chief met the head of the Northern Command to iron out differences. So, they speak in one voice when it comes to the crunch.
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October 2012
{GOLDENEYE}
g GOOD-BYE WITH GRACE...
FB Defence reporters’ club
S
D
o how does the Sarkar say farewell to a Chief of Staff? When the Naval Chief retired recently he was given a perfect send-off by everyone across the board — including the Rashtrapati. The President, who is the Commander-in-Chief, we are told although there is no confirmation, was the first to host a dinner for the Chief. Usually these dinners are small and governed by a high degree of protocol. Those in attendance include the other Chiefs, the Defence Minister and the Prime Minister. There is also a dinner by Defence Minister AK Antony that is attended by top officials of the Ministry and the other Ministers in the department. If there is any difference between this farewell and the ones that other government departments have for their officers, in the case of the armed forces, the farewells are usually held in one of the sprawling officers mess that abound all over town. It's a dry affair over juice and fizz and plenty of chatter.
efence Correspondents Club is a Facebook group of journalists covering the defence beat and the public relations professionals. The group has completed one year and has also crossed 150 members. A forum for free and frank exchange of ideas between professionals, all the media managers of the Ministry of Defence are also its members and they use the space to check out the views of the journalists over sundry issues. Congratulations to Mukesh Kaushik, who conceptualised the idea and moderates the group on FB. Here’s hoping it will be an exciting year ahead!
Update the website
I
ndian industry is going gaga over the new Offset procedure. The industry is abuzz with hectic activity but the government’s attitude can be understood by going through the website of the Defence Offset Facilitation Agency (DOFA), which gives details of officials posted there. But the website has not been updated for years and names military officers who retired years ago. In a recentlyheld seminar this point was made and a Colonel present there, who was once part of DOFA, stood up to tell the gathering that he was no more with it. If this is the condition of the portal, one can understand where Offsets stand in the Ministry of Defence's list of priorities. It is high time the Defence Secretary, gave some importance to its portals. We are in the IT era, Sirji!
Fake ambition
I ILLUSTRATIONS: SATISH UPADHYA
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ndian industry appears to be very keen to participate in the defence business. In response to a tender the Army received 15 responses. When the Army wanted to have a meeting with these contenders, it asked one of the industry bodies to arrange a meeting. The executive of the industry body called all the contenders offices and found to his horror that many of those who answered the telephone were people who had no idea about the tenders. It then dawned on him that they were fronting for some global manufacturers. After much effort, of 15 participants, only five could come for the meeting. What do you say to that?
October 2012
ISRO’S COSMIC
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GEOPOLITICS
PANORAMA
he Indian Space Research Organisation’s (ISRO’s) space odyssey hit the 100launch mark on the September 9, 2012 as two satellites were launched into orbit. The workhorse PSLV-C21 put France’s SPOT6, into orbit and followed seconds later by Japan's Proiteres. In attendance at the launch, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, applauded and congratulated scientists after Mission Director KunhiKrishnan announced that the launch was a success. “India is justly proud of its space scientists who have overcome many odds to develop our own technology for space missions,” he said. Dev Prasad Karnik, ISRO chief spokesperson clarified: “Each Indian rocket going up is considered a mission. Each Indian satellite being placed in orbit is a mission. For calculating the 100th flight, ISRO took into consideration only Indian rockets and satellites which were launched.”
T
TAKING STOCK: Flanked by ISRO Chief K Radhakrishnan (second from left), PM Manmohan Singh visits the facility at Sriharikota on September 8, 2012
MILESTONES
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Aryabhata was ISRO’s first satellite which started its space programme back in 1975 when it was launched by a Russian rocket. So far, ISRO has launched 62 Indian and 29 foreign satellites from Sriharikota and foreign launch pads, such as French Guiana. Germany’s 45-kg DLR-TUBSAT which was launched on the PSLV-C2 in 1999 was the first foreign satellite while at 712 kg the SPOT-6 is the PSLV’s biggest commercial lift so far.
ASCENT TO THE HEAVENS
Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) sets up Indian National Committee for Space Research. Work starts on Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launching Station (TERLS) in Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala. 1962
Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) formed on August 15 under the DAE. 1969
Satish Dhawan Space Centre (formerly SHAR Centre) formed in Sriharikota, Andhra Pradesh. 1971
Satellite Instructional Television Experiment using a US satellite. First Indian satellite, the Aryabhatta, launched into space on April 19. 1975
Insat-1A communication satellite launched via a US rocket. 1982
First Indian cosmonaut, Rakesh Sharma, spends eight days in Russian space station Salyut 7. He flew in Russian rocket Soyuz T-11. 1984
Launch of Indian Remote Sensing (IRS) satellite – IRA-1A through a Russian rocket. Second developmental flight of ASLV with SROSS satellite. Mission failed. 1988
CENTURY 2 STAR PERFORMER ISRO’s PSLV (Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle) has proved to be a star performer, whose missions have entailed hauling Israeli spy satellite Tescar into space on January 21, 2008, placing 10 satellites in diverse orbits in quick succession on April 28,2008, and the launch of Chandrayaan-1 taking India to the moon on October 22, 2008.
3 AIMING FOR THE STARS In the next five years ISRO is preparing up to launch 58 missions according to Chairman K Radhakrishnan(above left). The ISRO chief also added that the budget for the current year was `6,700 crore. Out of this, 36 per cent would be allocated for launch vehicles, 55 per cent for communication, remote sensing and navigation satellites and 9 per cent for science missions like Astrosat, Mars Orbiter and Aditya. Business would also be driven by the explosion in the DTH TV industry, with huge capacity addition in terms of transponders to meet the demand of 156 transponders. ISRO will also create a National Database for Emergency Management and focus on other remote sensing databases in order to assist the government in planning.
TOWARDS THE STARS: Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV) is an expendable launch system operated by the ISRO to enable India to launch its INSAT-type satellites into geostationary orbit
PSLV started carrying foreign payloads (Korean and German satellites) along with ISRO's satellite Oceansat. 1999
Successful launch of heavy rocket Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV) with GSAT-1 satellite. Launch of PSLV with India’s Technology Experimental Satellite and satellites from Belgium and Germany. 2001
PSLV-C11 successfully launches CHANDRAYAAN-1 from Sriharikota. 2008
Launch of Risat-1 by PSLV. Launch of French satellite SPOT-6 and Japanese satellite PROITERES. 2012
THE FINAL FRONTIER After a series of firsts, ISRO has already homed in on the Red Planet for its next big project. The proposed Mars Orbiter Mission is expected to lift off from the Sriharikota spaceport sometime in November 2013, after getting an endorsement from the Indian cabinet.
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GEOPOLITICS
SPECIALREPORT
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relationship to take off. Till even 2009, most analysts were projecting that the US would continue to be a net importer of natural gas. Accordingly, over ten liquefied natural gas (LNG) regasification or import terminals were built along the US coast in the first decade of the 21st century. However, circa 2010 shale gas production shifted to a new gear, thereby turning what was once possibly a scarcity market, into one that has gas aplenty. Shale gas is, after all, simply natural gas trapped within shale formations which are basically fine-grained sedimentary rocks that can serve as sources of petroleum and natural gas. The chief technology to recover gas from this unconventional source is hydraulic fracturing or hydrofracking, which, despite its various detractors, seems to have matured into a commercial grade technology in the United States and to a lesser degree in Canada. Hydrofracking is a technique in which water, chemicals and sand are pumped into a drilled well to unlock the hydrocarbons trapped in shale formations as it
were by opening up fissures in the rock and allowing natural gas to flow from the shale into the well. When used together with another technique known as horizontal drilling, hydrofracking makes shale gas extraction commercially viable although environmental concerns do remain. Some environmental groups seem concerned about the massive water usage of shale gas production as well as the possibility that the hydraulic fracturing fluid — which may contain potentially hazardous chemicals —- could be released by spills, leaks, faulty well construction, or other exposure pathways. There are also disposal issues surrounding the waste water generated by the process, besides the fact that the process causes mild tremors during operation. Be that as it may, the advent of shale gas has considerably increased estimated reserves of recoverable gas in the United States. Concomitantly, production too has heightened considerably, and today 33 per cent of the total US natural gas production is from shale deposits. According to the US Energy Information Administration
INDIAPRWIRE.COM
S INDIA looks to move to a low-carbon future while continuing to provide greater energy access to a growing and developing population, it seems that one of the strategies to achieve the same involves a transition from oil to natural gas — since the carbon content of the former per equivalent unit is much higher than that for the latter. At the moment, India’s key partners for executing this strategy are concentrated in the volatile Middle-Eastern region, and clearly there is a need to diversify India’s present and future sources of natural gas in the interests of energy security. In this context, a hitherto unlikely source of gas has emerged, what with the shale gas revolution in North America which is likely to make natural gas supplies from that continent increasingly available on the world market. However, the United States (US) is likely to emerge as a greater source than Canada in the short term and there are bilateral issues that need to be worked out as part of the Indo-US energy dialogue for this aspect of the energy
THE FUTURE OF FUEL The Indo-US cooperation in the field of natural gas exploitation could possibly have a much greater impact on India’s energy security than the Indo-US nuclear re-engagement has had so far, writes SAURAV JHA
g SPECIALREPORT (EIA): “US natural gas production will increase from 21.6 trillion cubic feet in 2010 to 27.9 trillion cubic feet in 2035, a 29 per cent increase. Almost all of this increase in domestic natural gas production is due to projected growth in shale gas production, which grows from 5.0 trillion cubic feet in 2010 to 13.6 trillion cubic feet in 2035.” What this gas has done is appreciably depress gas prices in the United States, as measured at the Henry Hub, the main US gas benchmark traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange, which has consistently been recording prices of below 3 dollars per million British thermal units (mmbtu) for the past few months. Clearly a stage has arrived where suppliers in the US will increasingly be looking at global markets for their gas output. Of course, there are concerns in the US, especially among consumer groups, about whether this may actually lead to a reversal in price trends over there, but the fact is that natural gas usage in the US is driven essentially by the power sector, with very little being used for transportation, where oil continues to be the mainstay. This is unlikely to change anytime soon, and even the power sector gas will find it difficult to displace coal, given that both Obama and Romney seem firmly committed to coal-fired generation in the US. The US Energy Information Administration has even come out with a detailed study, which suggests that the price of natural gas is unlikely to rise despite
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greater exports. Clearly, America is on a trajectory where it can emerge as a player in the international LNG spot market. Now there is certainly a possibility of greater pipeline exports to Mexico, given that it has been unable yet to exploit its own shale gas reserves and the demand and supply gap for natural gas continues in favour of the former. Greater exports to Canada, however, are not as likely, given that shale estates are beginning to pick up pace over there. But the point is that greater exports to Mexico will not suffice to raise the fortunes of all natural gas suppliers in the US who will definitely look beyond their continent. Indeed, reexports of LNG cargoes contracted earlier by companies in the US are on the rise. Typically, previously contracted cargoes are kept in storage at the various LNG import terminals in the US, and then sold on the international market taking advantage of rising gas prices in other parts of the world. In fact, such re-exported American LNG cargoes have even made their way to Indian shores earlier this year. In December last year, Gas Authority of India Limited (GAIL) contracted to source 3.5 million tonnes of LNG a year for 20 years from Houston-based Cheniere Energy Partners LP (CQP)’s Sabine Pass terminal in western Cameron Parish, Louisiana. This terminal is incidentally the sole terminal with the approval to export LNG to nations that do not have a free-trade agreement (FTA) in place with the US. At the moment, there are proposals pending from the operators of ten LNG import terminals to turn them into export terminals i.e add liquefaction facilities.
However, such a move is quite expensive, with ball park figures of $2 billion required to make them suitable for exporting LNG and clearly require external investment — a place where Indian majors might want to step in. Even as natural production in the US is moving to a different level altogether, unfortunately the Indian gas scenario is not so rosy. After the early promise of the Krishna Godavari basin turned out to be overhyped, India is actually witnessing a decline in absolute production of natural gas even as demand continues to climb steadily. In fact, natural gas production from Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) much-touted KG D6 block is projected to fall to 24 million standard cubic metre per day (mmscmd) in fiscal 2013-14 compared to 28 mmscmd in the current fiscal year. It is actually forecast to fall even further to just 20 mmscmd in 2014-15 Total Indian gas production for fiscal 2012-13 is predicted to reach 104 mmscmd. This may increase to 112 mmscmd by 2014-15 but compares poorly with past production when domestic supply reached 120 mmscmd in 2011-12. In any case, projected demand by 2014-15 is 356.16 million mmscmd, which means that there is a gaping hole between demand and supply which will have to be met by imports. Demand will rise further to 473 mmscmd in 2017-18 with the sector as a whole likely to grow at a compounded annual growth rate of 19.5 per cent by that time. As such India is now becoming heavily dependent on LNG cargo to meet domestic demand, and this is one of the reasons
MYTHOUGHTSONTECHNOLOGYANDJAMAICA.BLOGSPOT.IN
NEW-AGE FUEL: The advent of shale gas has considerably increased estimated reserves of recoverable gas in the US with distinct possibilities for India
why heavy investment is being made into LNG re-gasification terminals and pipeline net in the country. India’s total LNG re-gasification (import) capacity is poised to rise from 13.5 million tonnes to 48 million tonnes by 2017-18. Naturally, given the projected imported requirements, India is constantly on the lookout for cheaper gas. Unfortunately, there is no one gas market in the world but roughly three. By extension, the price of gas varies across regions in the world and is generally linked to the price of crude and that means that the price of gas typically moves up with the price of oil which as we know is not really softening. For instance, India’s current LNG suppliers such as Qatar’s RasGas charge 12.67 per cent of Japan Customs-Cleared Crude (JCC) and Petronet LNG pay a further $0.26 per mmbtu for shipping and that translates into $12.93 per mmbtu at current JCC prices. Interestingly, even domestic producers such as Reliance are demanding this as their new price point. In such a scenario, gas from North America, even after adding transportation and handling costs, may make sense since these will be Henry Hub-linked prices and are being currently contracted at $9.35 per mmbtu. But then, of course, the question is: Why would American suppliers want to lock in substantial supplies with India in bilateral contracts and not sell only on the spot market? The answer of course lies in Indian investment into American infrastructure required for exporting gas. Indeed, given that Indian majors such as Reliance and GAIL have already made substantive equity investments into upstream shale gas ventures in the US, there is no reason www.geopolitics.in
why they will not be interested in the downstream segment as well as an indeed indication is that such moves are clearly in the offing. So, it is possible that Indian companies could secure 15-20-year contracts in return for the investments they make. This would enhance India’s energy security not just in terms of contracted volumes but also by giving India greater bargaining power going forward in the near term for other contracts which are sought to be indexed to the oil prices. However, there are other issues which will need to be sorted out before large scale exports of gas from the US to India become possible. American law allows its producers to sell natural gas without requiring any permits only to those countries that have a free trade agreement (FTA) with it and American exports to Canada and Mexico are facilitated by precisely the fact that they have FTAs in place with the former. For others, the US allows exports of natural gas on a case-by-case basis and at the moment only one LNG terminal has an approval of LNG for reexport. Approvals typical involve public hearings to the effect that such exports will be in the US ‘national interest’ and are rather cumbersome to get. This is one area that the forthcoming Indo-US energy dialogue will certainly have to look at. Meanwhile, Indian industry can also turn to Canada, which regulates the import and export of natural gas from its territory via the National Energy Board, but follows a less cumbersome procedure for doing so and export licenses will be generally easier to obtain as long it is made that the exports will not prejudice Canada’s future requirements.
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Though direct imports from Canada are certainly a possibility, at the moment shale gas production there has not taken off to the extent it has in the US, and a lot of production in the near term could also be diverted to oil sands and fertilizer projects which use it as feedstock. Canada could, in the near term however, serve as a conduit for getting American shale gas in the absence of an Indo-US FTA. There are two pipelines that cross the border with the US near new shale plays (in the US) which could be used to traffic US natural gas to Canada and then exported via the LNG terminal in Saint John, New Brunswick on the Atlantic Coast. Of course, this is presently an LNG import terminal and liquefaction facilities will have to be added to it and that is where a trilateral dialogue between India, Canada and the United States is underway. Beyond the question of natural gas imports from the US or Canada is the issue of India being able to exploit its own substantial shale gas reserves. Even the lowest estimate of recoverable shale gas estimate as announced by the United States Geological Survey puts it at 6.1 trillion cubic feet in three out of 26 sedimentary basins in India. India has already opened the first round of bidding for shale plays this year and foreign enterprises have been allowed to participate in the same. Clearly, given that the US is a pioneer in the field, shale gas actually has the potential to emerge as the most robust area of bilateral energy cooperation between India and the US. At the least, it could certainly have a much greater impact on India’s energy security than the Indo-US nuclear re-engagement has had so far. October 2012
UAVs FOR INFANTRY We analyse the Indian Army’s RFI for mini-UAVs for the soldier
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INTERVIEW Eurocopter’s Rainer Farid talks about his company’s prospects
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g geopolitics D E F E N C E
B U S I N E S S
BAESYSTEMS
MORE HAWKS IN THE INDIAN SKY
The Hawk Advanced Jet Trainer has become the backbone of the Indian Air Force (IAF) training fleet and India is going to procure another twenty of these birds for the IAF’s aerobatic team. ROHIT SRIVASTAVA writes about the significance of this deal
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ROUNDED IN 2011 because its planes were called up to fulfil the training requirements of the Air Force’s cadets, the Indian Air Force’s Surya Kiran aerobatic team will soon fly again, this time in the Hawk Advanced www.geopolitics.in
Jet Trainer. BAE Systems, the manufacturers of these trainer aircraft, have received an order for 20 of these machines from its Indian licence manufacturing partner Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) from the Ministry of Defence. In its statement BAE Systems
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Driving India’s burgeoning defence
AFTER A period of considerable neglect, the Indian armed forces have embarked on an ambitious modernisation plan to counter adversaries in their neighbourhood and improve their combat ratio against them. All three forces have been given a considerable war chest with which to finance their modernisation drives. The total defence budget for the financial year of 2012-13 is `1.93 lakh crore. Out of this, the Indian Army has been allocated `96, 564 crore. Former Army Chief General VK Singh’s letter to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on the chinks in the Army’s armour had exposed critical deficiencies in artillery, aviation, air defence, night-fighting, anti-tank guided missiles and tank and rifle ammunition. Further to this, Army Chief General Bikram Singh stated that modernisation of the Army would be his priority. But there have been hiccups — a further allocation of `50,000 crore for the current financial year, was put on hold due to the sluggish state of the economy. Continued on Page 30 }
October 2012
g DEFBIZ
has said, “BAE Systems has received a Request for Proposal (RFP) from Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) for a potential order to supply products and services for the manufacture of 20 Hawk Advanced Jet Trainer (AJT) aircraft. The aircraft, to be built by HAL in Bengaluru, will fulfil the Indian Air Force’s requirement for its prestigious aerobatic team.” Guy Griffiths, Group MD, BAE Systems, said, “This is a tremendous opportunity to build on the success of Hawk in India and demonstrates the progress we are making in capturing significant opportunities to address the defence modernisation requirements of the Indian government. Together with HAL, we look forward to giving the Indian Air Force’s display team a fantastic aircraft.” The IAF’s Surya Kiran aerobatic display teams used to fly the Kiran trainer aircraft. The IAF grounded its basic trainer after a series of accidents and was compelled to call the Kiran trainers from the Surya Kiran team for the purpose of training its rookie pilots in 2011.
VERSATILE PLATFORM The Hawk is a tandem-seat aircraft for ground attack, flying training and weapon training. It has a low wing and an all-metal structure and is powered by an Adour Mk 871 turbofan engine. The aircraft has an integrated navigation /attack system and radio and inertial navigation systems. The aircraft is cleared for instrument flying (IFR) and for solo instrument flying from the front cockpit only.
Since then, the IAF does not have an aerobatic team. HAL is the licensed producer of these aircraft. The IAF will buy the aircraft
from HAL, which will then place the order with BAE Systems. The MoD had cleared the IAF’s proposal for this contract in November 2011. It took almost a
Maximum Level Speed At Sea Level At 30,000 ft g’ Limit Ceiling Take-off run
: : : : :
0.84 Mach 0.85 Mach +8/-4 13,533 m 664 m
STAR PERFORMER: The Hawk Advanced Jet Trainer has been used by air forces around the world
Radius of action with max. payload Ÿ
260 km to 750 km
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year for the contract to reach this stage. BAE will respond to this RFP (request for proposal) in the coming months after which the contract will be signed between it and HAL. This would be the third contract placed with BAE Systems for the supply of materials and equipment for the Hawk Mk132. The first contract for this aircraft was for 66 aircraft in 2004, out of which 24 Hawks arrived in fly-away condition and 42 were built under licence by HAL. These 66 aircraft were worth `6,600 crore. This order was followed by an additional order for 57 aircraft in 2010, worth around `5500 crore. BAE Systems, MoD and HAL have worked together on this project to come up with a production line at HAL, where the aircraft are now assembled. The delivery of the first contract was delayed due to technical problems. Till now, the IAF has received around 70 aircraft and the rest are expected to be delivered around 2015. HAL, at present, manufactures 12-13 aircraft every year and it is working to increase the production rate to 19 aircraft after 2013. The contract for the aerobatic team will
be executed only after 2015 and HAL will only be able to execute this contract if it is able to push its aircraft manufacturing rate. One can expect the IAF’s aerobatic team to fly this aircraft sometime after 2017. The cost of procuring these aircraft is `3,600 crore. Previously, reports suggested that the IAF would buy 21 of these aircraft. The aerobatic team will get a majority of these Hawks, but a few aircraft will also replace IAF Hawks that have crashed. In its release BAE also said: “BAE Systems and HAL are committed to strengthen their relationship through ongoing discussions on exploring longterm sustainable business opportunities, globally. The potential addition to the Indian fleet, one of the largest fleets of Hawk aircraft in the world, would take the number of Hawk aircraft ordered worldwide to over 1,000. The aircraft has been widely exported to countries like Australia, Canada, South Africa, Bahrain, India, the Royal Saudi Air Force and the UK. The UK’s Royal Air Force aerobatics team Red Arrows has used the BAE Systems Hawk since 1979.”
Key Facts Ü Hawk is currently producing highly-trained pilots for 25 of the world’s air forces. Ü Over 900 Hawks (all versions) have been delivered or are on order. Ü The Hawk produces less noise and emissions than any other advanced jet trainer. Ü Hawk has lower acquisition, operating and support costs than any other advanced jet trainer. Ü Hawk has been chosen by the UK MoD for future fighter training on the Typhoon and the F-35 Lightning II. Ü In-flight simulation of sensors, state-of-the-art pilotvehicle interface, and the ability to use simulated weapons provides pilots with a realistic environment for training.
AIR ACE.BLOGSPOT.IN
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GEOPOLITICS
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INDIGENOUS
HEMANT RAWAT
SMERCH AMMO
Indo-Russian defence cooperation has always been the cornerstone of Indian defence preparedness. India’s dependence on Russia for its cutting-edge weapons system and military technology is well known. In line with this, the Ordnance Factory Board (OFB) has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Russian firms to manufacture the ammunition of the Smerch rocket system. Geopolitics reports on the significance of this deal
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powerful rocket system. India bought 30 Smerch systems to arm two artillery regiments of the Army for $500 million in 2006. Subsequently, India also bought 30 additional systems. The MoU was duly approved by Defence Minister AK Antony and was signed by the three parties on August 27,
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ITH ITS 90 km-range and the capacity to fire six different types of ammunition, the Smerch self-propelled rocket system is at the forefront of the Indian artillery’s offensive capacity. The Smerch is considered the world’s most-advanced and
2012. In its press statement, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) declared, “The Ordnance Factory Board signed a memorandum of understanding for a joint venture with M/s Rosoboronexport, Russia and M/s Splav ‘SPA’, Russia, to manufacture five versions of Smerch rockets based on the technology received from Russia… October 2012
DECISIVE BATTLEFIELD WEAPON: With its long range and devastating potential, the Smerch is a formidable weapon system
these technologically superior rockets will start a new chapter in Indo-Russian friendship.” After indigenising the technology of Smerch rockets, the OFB will attain new heights in the manufacture of advanced rocket systems. The agreement provides for the transfer of a complete set of rocket projectile production technologies to a Russian-Indian joint venture being formed now. Rosobornexport, in its press statement, said, “Both parties will adhere in their work to current legislation of the Russian Federation and the Republic of India, and will take all necessary measures to protect information and materials containing confidential information.” The Smerch rocket projectiles are considered extremely advanced and their manufacturing is technologically very sensitive, so one can understand the considerable secrecy surrounding the www.geopolitics.in
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project, with both the Ministry of Defence and the Army very tight-lipped about it. The Ambajhari plant of the OFB, the main unit for production of rocket artillery for the Indian armed forces, is expected to produce these rockets. It is worth mentioning that the Indian Army has been struggling with the maintenance of the Smerch system and even the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) has made note of this. Rosobornexport has a joint venture with PSL Ltd called Rosoboronterra which has the rights to do the maintenance of Smerch system. The Russian OEMs’ release also pointed out the after-sales service and its significance. It said, “The signing of the memorandum on cooperation in production and after-sale servicing of Smerch MLRS rocket projectiles corroborates the fact that the Indian-Russian military technical cooperation is based
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A ROCKET FOR EVERY NEED Â 9M55K Rocket with Fragmentation Submunitions Scattering Cluster Warhead — to engage concentrations of soldiers and soft-skinned materiel. Â 9M55K1 Rocket with Sensor — Fuzed Submunitions Scattering Cluster Warhead — to engage from atop formations of armoured materiel, including tanks. Â 9M55K4 Rocket with Anti-Tank Mines Scattering Cluster Warhead — for distant laying of anti-tank mine-fields. Â 9M55K5 Rocket with Shaped Charge Fragmentation Submunitions Scattering Cluster Warhead — to engage exposed manpower, armoured, lightly-armoured and soft-skinned materiel. Â 9M55F Rocket with Separable HEFragmentation Warhead to engage man-power, lightly-armoured and soft-skinned materiel, command posts, communication centres and military infrastructure facilities. Â 9M55S Rocket with Fuel- Air Explosive Warhead — to engage manpower both in the open and sheltered in field fortifications, soft-skinned or lightly-armoured materiel. Â 9M528 Rocket fitted with HE-Fragmentation Warhead — to engage manpower, lightly-armoured and soft-skinned materiel, command posts, communication centres and military infrastructure facilities.
on large-scale projects and mutual trust, friendship and top-level geopolitical strategic partnership.” The three parties constituting the MoU are currently working on ‘developing a business plan for the joint venture’. Our sources in the Army suggested that this MoU was significant as the Army would like to end its dependence on the Russians and have local production of ammunition. Importing ammunition has its shortcoming in terms of cost and storage. During the Kargil War, India was dependant on the import of ammunition for the Bofors gun which kept the Army on its toes. India would like to avoid a similar situation in future conflicts and so it makes sense to base ammunition manufacturing at home. This is a welcome step by Ministry. Sources informed us that the artillery corps of the Indian Army had been pushing for this deal for the last couple of years. October 2012
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FUTURE OF INDIAN MILITARY RADIO After years of discussing the need for a modern radio communication system, the Indian Army has finally taken the first step forward by releasing the request for information (RFI) for the procurement of internet protocol radios. ROHIT SRIVASTAVA writes how this will change the way the Indian Army communicates during wars
DEFENSE.GOV
SOLDIER ON CALL: Advanced military radio systems, like this one being used by a US Marine, will have far reaching implications on tactical operations for Indian soldiers
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N ANY battle, radios are the only mode of communication between troops. For a long time there simply been no alternative that could replace the cumbersome legacy radios. But the era of radio communication is about to change very soon. At present, the Indian Army is still using World War II-era radios, which are bulky and not very safe from interception. These days, the interception capability of the military is very high and this makes any communication with forces equipped with old technology radios extremely vulnerable to interception. If the radio communication between the personnel of any force gets intercepted, then the whole operation can get jeopardised. The RFI for the new Indian Army radios was released by the Director General — Weapons and Equipments and Directorate General — Perspective Planning. The RFI was open till the last date of the September. The RFI is fairly exhaustive and it is futuristic in its demand for the specification of radio system. In today's battlefield, mere voice communication is not enough, as soldiers are being increasingly expected to send data. In the RFI, the Army suggests that “security forces have traditionally relied on the need for radio communications for coordination and conduct of operations. These radios have conventionally been used for command and control, primarily for voice communication but with limited amount of data capability while utilising a single channel”. The era of single-channel radios has come to an end with internet protocol (IP)-based radio system, which uses IP
networks to send voice, data and video through a single channel. This provides a huge amount of flexibility to the soldiers during operations. In a scattered battlefield where visual communication is limited or non-existent, it is radio communication that is the only mode available, so the more data transferred, the better it is for operations. One of the first requirements of the Indian Army is that the radio sets should have an easy and friendly-user interface with features such as buttons accessible by soldiers with gloves, user-defined backlighting with indicators for signals, battery strength, call indications, data transfer rate. These features would keep the user aware about the functionality of the radio. If the signals are weak, or in case of a situation with no radio signals, the soldier can quickly take a decision without wasting any time. These radios will be used by the lowest formations and the infantry, which is why it needs to be user-friendly to save time communication and for effective utilisation. For any radio system, frequency is the most crucial feature and when it comes to frequency, the more the merrier. In a battlefield scenario when a radio functions frequently on the same frequency it is easy to intercept and jam. But when the system is capable of changing the frequency, or when a radio can function on multiple frequencies, then jamming becomes difficult. Keeping in line with this basic fundamental of radio communication, the RFI asks for the types of connectives supported by the IP radio, modes of operation, capability of simultaneous connections to multiple networks, and the capability of functioning
Software Defined Radio (SDR) technology
DEFENSE.GOV
¾ The term ‘software defined radio’ was coined in 1991 by Joseph Mitola ¾ Flexibile and cost efficiency ¾ Used in the defense sector in the US and Europe since the late 1970s ¾ A single SDR platform can theoretically support an infinite number of waveforms ¾ The same waveform can be loaded on different radio platforms ¾ SDR acts as an enabling technology for reconfigurable radios such as adaptive radios, cognitive radios, intelligent radios etc. ¾ Allows systems to select the optimum frequency spectrum based on location and time
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continuously over the complete frequency range or in a specified range. The power requirement of handsets with multiple functions is always very high. Since the Army wants to play safe, it has asked for details of the power consumption pattern of the radio, so that it is aware about how long a battery will last with different type of usage. This could be significant information in a tactical operation far from any recharging facility allowing soldiers proper utilisation of available battery power. In today's battlefield, every military communication has to be encrypted so that even if the enemy hacks into the system, it should not be able to read the data. To ensure this, since WWII, communication has been encrypted to secure it. The RFI asks for the possibility of the indigenisation of encryption also. RFI demands the encryption to follow Access, Authentication and Authorisation (AAA), Communication Security (COMSEC) and Transmission Security (TRANSEC). The radios also need to be capable of the electronic counter counter measure (ECCM). In terms of the physical security of the IP radios, the Army desires to a “mechanism for emergency erasure of algorithms, keys and data to render the set unusable should it fall in the wrong hands.” It would like the capability “to kill rouge IP radio over the air”. The Army wants its radios to have a system to inform its user about its data information rate, the RFI elaborates this clearly: “Are there any channel sensing, flow control, Forward Error Correction (FEC) and Automatic Repeat Request (ARQ) implemented?” As per the RFI, the Army is looking for a radio with effective range beyond line of sight. The Army has requested information on “the effective data rates achievable on extreme communication ranges of radio in Line of Sight (LoS) and Beyond Line of Sight (BLoS) mode”. The Army also wants the radio to be modular, routable, network features, scalable; and wants it be operable with mobile, laptop, tablets etc in addition to being GPS enabled and ruggedised. The Indian Army is looking for a cutting-edge technology in IP radios. This has the capability to change the way the Army communicates, especially if we add the under-development tactical communication system, under which these radios will function. But the question remains if these will remain cutting-edge or top-of-theline by the time they are finally procured, given the way the Indian procurement system functions. October 2012
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EYES ON TARGET: Man-portable mini-UAV systems are crucial force-multipliers that have the potential to enlarge the surveillance potential of the infantry exponentially
EAGLE EYES FOR
THE NATIONAL GUARD/ FILICKR
KASHMIR
Following the Navy’s tender for micro-UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles), the Indian Army has also come up with a similar tender. ROHIT SRIVASTAVA reports on the importance of the UAV purchase by the Northern Command
T
HE INDIAN Army’s Northern Command issued a request for proposal for the purchase of 20 mini-UAVs, small enough to be operated by
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individual soldiers in August 2012. The Army’s Northern Command is responsible for the defence of the state of Jammu and Kashmir. Generally, individual commands do not make capital
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acquisitions directly. But according to the new regulations, the Army formations have a budget for direct purchases if it is under their special financial powers. This deal is expected to be October 2012
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ELBITSYSTEMS.COM
SKYLARK I-LE
Entire system carried by two operators. Electrical propulsion — inaudible at 100 metres above ground level. Gimbaled & stabilised payload — delivers high quality day & night video. Highly deployable & simple to operate. Airborne airbag system for point recovery, not requiring any ground reception devices. European-type certificate. Advanced digital data link. Unique capabilities such as air relay and “hot swap”. Ability to integrate into user C4I. Specification Take-off weight Payload weight Endurance Service ceiling Range Wing span
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: : : : : :
7/7.5 Kg 1.2 Kg 3 hours 15,000 ft 20/40 Km 3m
At present, the Indian Army is using Israeli systems — mostly medium-range UAVs with considerable loitering time and a significant ceiling limit. There are 200 Medium Altitude Long Endurance (MALE) UAVs, such as the Searcher and the Heron. India has been using these UAVs for around a decade now, although it has never announced it publically. In the last two years, the Indian Army has conducted a number of successful operations in Kashmir with these drones. In highaltitude areas, where border surveillance is a tedious process, these systems help with aerial surveillance. The drones are capable of surveying a large amount of enemy territory in a short duration and once the infiltrators are located, they can be tracked and a force sent to intercept them. As per reports, the Army expects global original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to respond to the RFP in the next couple of months. The RFP stipulates that the UAV should not be more than 10 kg and be transportable by an individual soldier. The Northern Command wants the drones to have a day-night surveillance capability. The tender document wants the OEM to offer drones with camera, infrared sensors and the capability to record and transmit the information and data in real time to the ground control. The Army wants the drones to be capable of being assembled in less than 20 minutes for deployment in the intended area of surveillance. The Army wants the UAV to have a minimum ceiling height of 1000 metres, be powered by a silent electrical motor and have a five-kilometre range. Expected to fly at a maximum speed of 70 kilometres per hour, these birds are stipulated to have an endurance of at least an hour. To better arm its troops in the border state of Jammu and Kashmir, the Indian Army is buying 20 man-portable, mini-unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) that can be deployed to gather intelligence and mount surveillance.
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BIRD EYE 400
IAI.CO.IL
within a budget of `50 lakh and it seems the Army is planning to close this deal before the next summer. The Indian Army has been using UAVs in its Northern Command over the last few years. Generally, the UAVs of the Indian Army are operated by artillery units or by intelligence units, but the armed forces have now realised the utility of UAVs in all types of operational roles. In the Northern Command, the UAVs are slowly becoming the backbone of the border management and anti-infiltration system.
The system is equipped in two backpacks and consists of: 3 UAV platforms EO& IR payloads Portable ground control system (PGCS) Data link Power source and repair kit It is man-portable with fast-field deployment by a team of two. The Bird-Eye 400 system’s main features and capabilities are: Underbelly real-time video camera for obstacle-free maximal coverage of high resolution day or night imagery Unique patented turn-over landing manoeuvre to secure payload during landing phase Bungee or hand launch Electrical propulsion for minimal noise signature and audio detection probability Fully-automated flight including takeoff and landing Safe, reliable and easy operation Low lifecycle cost Performance Endurance : Range : Altitude : Loiter Speed (ktas) : Max Speed (ktas) :
60 Minutes 10 Km 1000 ft AGL 32-40 45
Technical Data Weights Take-off weight Payload Weight
: 5.6 kg. : 1.2 kg.
Dimensions Wingspan
: 2.2 m
Powerplant Electrical
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US NAVY
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INDIAN TEAM TO TAKE STOCK OF GORSHKOV A
gainst the backdrop of delay in delivery schedule of aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov, an Indian Navy team is scheduled to visit Russia in the next few days to monitor the progress of work on the warship. An Indian Navy team is all set to visit Russia to assess the situation after www.geopolitics.in
repeated delays in the in delivery schedule of aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov. The latest holdup occurred after the warship met with malfunctions in the engine at a point during sea trials in Russia. Admiral Gorshkov is now expected to reach Indian shores only in the second half of 2013 now. Headed by a three-star officer, the naval team will
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now appraise the level of damage to the aircraft carrier and submit its report to the Defence Ministry. Scheduled for commissioning into the Indian Navy by December, 2012, the carrier, which has been rechristened INS Vikramaditya, was damaged due to the malfunctioning of the boilers during the sea trials. Russia had not reportedly conveyed the October 2012
CHHINDITS.BLOGSPOT.IN
India has already inducted 15 Russian MiG-29K fighters into the Indian Navy for carrierborne operations from INS Vikramaditya once it is inducted. A naval variant of the MiG29 land-based fighter, the MiG 29K has folding wings, an arrester tail-hook, strengthened airframe and multirole capability. A number of different air-toair and air-to-surface weaponry missiles can be equipped on the fighter. www.geopolitics.in www.geopolitics.in
RAYTHEON
JAVELIN HITS ROADBLOCK TRANSFER OF TECHNOLOGY (ToT) issues have delayed the acquisition of Javelin anti-tank guided missiles from the US. If Uncle Sam is squeamish about ToT on the one hand, it is equally unenthusiastic about a desire to participate in the field trials. While both political parties in the US look at India as a key strategic partner, insiders believe that such reluctance flies in the face of such platitudes. It also renders meaningless the argument that defence sales are a cornerstone of the USIndian strategic relationship. India is looking to acquire the thirdgeneration anti-tank guided missiles for modernising its more than 350 infantry units and provide them the capability to destroy enemy armoured regiments. It has been in the works for over two years when the country first made a letter of request (LoR) to the US under the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) programme. A joint venture of Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, the Javelin is one of the two anti-tank guided missiles that the Indian Army is evaluating for its 350-odd infantry battalions. The other is the Spike, built by Israeli company, Rafael. Both these missiles
are what are popularly known as shoulder-launched, “fire-and-forget” ATGMs. What that means is that once fired by the two-man crew, they automatically track their targets. It may be mentioned that several Javelins were fired by Indian missile crews during joint exercises with the US. The results delighted the Army in what was really an informal field trial. However, Raytheon said, “The Javelin JV stands ready to respond to all requests of the Indian government relating to the evaluation and procurement of the combat-proven missile while ensuring it adheres to the US and Indian governments’ agreement. “The company said the missile was a superior solution on offer to the Indian Army and was “worth the wait as the two governments continue discussions”. It may be mentioned that one other key area of difference is the ‘end user agreement’ that gives the US the right to inspect equipment sold to India. The country has consistently said that it was a violation of sovereignty.
RAYTHEON
matter of the malfuntioning boilers to the Indian government officially, which came to know about it through the sailors who are undergoing training in Russia. Engineers are now focusing on the boilers’ heat insulation as the core of the problem and efforts at repairing the ship could take from four months to a year depending on the damage to the insulation. A Kiev-class aircraft carrier, which was laid down in 1978 and launched in 1982, Admiral Gorshkov was commissioned in 1987. A $976million deal was signed in 2004 between India and Russia for the purchase of the carrier with an original deadline for the refit’s completion of 2008. The cost of refurbishing the carrier has been pushed up to $2.3 billion its handing over to the India has been marred by cost overruns among other issues. India now only has one operational carrier in the form of the INS Viraat, which is in the last leg of its service.
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NORTHROP GRUMMAN and AgustaWestland are teaming up to offer the Italian company’s AW101 for two US military contests. One contest is for aircraft to replace the Navy’s VIP fleet that ferries President Barack Obama. The other is to replace Air Force combat search-and-rescue helicopters.. AgustaWestland had previously partnered with Lockheed Martin Corp oration to produce a similar presidential helicopter called the VH-71, but the programme was cancelled due to high acquisition costs and budget overruns. The presidential transportation role is currently filled by Sikorsky VH-3s, based on the longretired SH-3. The USAF’s CSAR contest will replace the Sikorsky HH-60s that currently fill the role but are reaching the end of their service lives. Variants of the UH-60 are ubiquitous throughout the US military, and an updated version has been offered as a competitor.
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GERWERT TO HEAD CASSIDIAN EADS HAS named Bernhard Gerwert as head of Cassidian, the defence unit whose Eurofighter Typhoon jet lost out in the Indian market to the French Rafale. Gerwert, 59, was Cassidian Chief Operating Officer and previously headed the Military Air Systems unit. He takes over Cassidian as the company struggles to restructure its businesses and boost exports amid cuts in defense spending at its principal customers, the German and French governments. Stefan Zoller will step down to pursue other opportunities, EADS said in a statement. The Zoller exit is the first big change since 53-year-old German Tom Enders took over as head of EADS. Several top Airbus executives have also moved to Cassidian: Airbus’s head of strategy, Christian Scherer, will lead a newly created sales and international operations unit of Cassidian, the company said in a statement. Also, Pilar Albiac-Murillo moves from being head of quality and lean management at Airbus to become Cassidian Chief Operating Officer. The move is part of a wider realignment within Cassidian. Clearly, the unit has become one of the first targets for overhaul under new EADS CEO Tom Enders. “The goal of this planned new division setup is mainly to reduce complexity, developing Cassidian towards clear accountability and empowerment in order to enable a better reactivity towards market challenges,” Gerwert said in the statement.
SWEDISHCHAMBER.IN
AF.MIL
BIDDING FOR THE US PRESIDENT’S MARINE ONE !
SWEDISH COMPANIES AND GUJARAT SEZ ALMOST 45 companies from Europe are looking forward to setting up units at the special economic zone (SEZ) for defence supply industries under planning by the Gujarat government. It is expected that a delegation from Gujarat will visit Stockholm soon to move the
project forward and also look at the possibility of technology transfer to Gujarat companies. Thiru Vengadam, managing director of Swedish company IFS Solutions, told The Times of India: “Defence product technology is imported at present as
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it is not available in India. About 45 companies from Europe have expressed interest in setting up units in Gujarat at the defence SEZ”. He added: “Companies in Gujarat are keen to get technology from Sweden. iNDEXTb is coordinating activities with Swedish Chamber of Commerce and Industries. IFS is focusing on infrastructure and automotive sectors in Gujarat to offer IT solutions.” The delegation has entered in to a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Government of Gujarat (GoG), iNDEXTb (Industrial Extension Bureau) and International Centre for Entrepreneurship and Technology (Icreate). As part of the MoU, about 200 companies in the state are discussing technology transfer with Swedish companies. October 2012
g HAL MAKES MARS ORBITER PANELS HINDUSTAN AERONAUTICS LTD (HAL) has announced it has made spacecraft panels for the Mars Orbiter Mission to be initiated by the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) in November 2013. HAL chairman RK Tyagi said: “We have delivered the satellite structure for the space agency’s Mars Orbiter Mission aimed at studying the climate, geology, origin and evolution of the red planet.” Consisting of composite and metallic honeycomb sandwich panels with a central cylinder, the spacecraft structure
was made at HAL’s aerospace complex in the city. The subsystems and scientific instruments itegrated aboard the spacecraft will be launched by a heavy rocket (PSLV-XL) from ISRO’s spaceport at Sriharikota. From the launch date it will take over 300 days for the spacecraft to reach about 500 km from the planet’s surface in Martian orbit. www.geopolitics.in
HAL Chief RK Tyagi also said: “During its Martian orbit, the spacecraft will be 54.6 million km away from earth, which will make it the farthest to travel in space.” November 27, 2013, is the launch date of ISRO’s Mars mission according to ISRO chairman K Radhakrishnan as that would be the date when the Red Planet would be closer to the earth. “We plan to put a spacecraft in an elliptical orbit for studying its atmosphere and detect presence of life on its surface. Mars mission will cost India `470 crore and reveal its ability to send a space-
craft 55 million km away from earth and look for life-sustaining elements on the surface of the Red Planet.” Radhakrishnan also added: “The Mars mission will make India join the elite club of five top nations comprising the US, Russia, Europe, China and Japan, with indigenous technology for a 300-day space voyage from the launch date.”
Dassault -Thales Assess facilities: In the frame of the Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) programme, Dassault Aviation, France, is launching an evaluation process to select Indian Industrial Partners for the Transfer of Production of Rafale’s equipment. As part of industrial survey, the representatives of Dassault Aviation and Thales visited HAL-Hyderabad on September 12, 2012. Regarding Transfer of Production of AESA RADAR and EM (Electro Magnetic) EW Suite, various facilities established at the division have been assessed by the team. Core Team for chopper business A new initiative has been taken in the Helicopter Complex for establishing a core team for integrated Business Development and Project Management. The team would work with strategy planning for business areas and volume broadening in the years to come. As part of the project management requirement, the team will coordinate with the design to formulate processes, procedures, quality requirements, tooling, etc, for production of the helicopters. HAL is examining the participation in the midlife update programme of Sea King helicopters of Indian Navy as a first step towards broadening of the business base.
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SAMTEL BAGS BIG-TIME UK ORDER SAMTEL AVIONICS and Defence Systems have signed a contract, estimated at `500 crore, with the UK-based Curtiss-Wright Controls Defense Solutions, in one of the largest defence tenders awarded to an Indian private sector defence firm by a global defence manufacturer. According to the terms of the seven-year contract, signed earlier this month, Samtel will make highdefinition, rugged liquid crystal cockpit displays for CurtissWright’s customers, including, Eurocopter, Sikorsky, AgustaWestland, all of which are currently in the running for a number of Indian military contracts.
“Samtel aims to make around 5000-7000 displays in next five to seven years. These displays embedded in helicopters will help homeland security and paramilitary forces across the globe conduct various missions, including surveillance and combat operations,” said Puneet Kaura, executive director of Samtel. The deal marks Curtiss-Wright Control’s entry into the highly sought-after Indian defence market, as well as the $2-billion company’s first partnership with an Indian firm. Curtiss-Wright Controls representatives did not respond to email queries on the development. The first chunk of the order has already been received by Samtel, and the development of the product as per the technology partnership requirements is to begin shortly at Samtel’s new production facilities at Greater Noida. Samtel’s Kaura estimates that his company’s products are nearly 25-30 per cent cheaper than most of other global competitiors.
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The Army will spend `13,803 crores on buying new weapons and platforms. The money will be spent to upgrade military infrastructure along the borders and beefing up critical fighting arms. Close to `40,000 crore will be spent equipping its mechanised infantry and tanks with nightfighting capabilities. Two mountain strike divisions for the North-East along Indo-China border that the Indian Army is planning to raise will cost approximately around `60,000 crore, while the `10,000 crore will be the cost of infrastructure development in the Eastern Army Command. The Army is also pressing for a squadron each of helicopters to fulfill the attack/armed, reconnaissance and tactical battle-support roles for each of its 13 Corps and the three strike Corps headquartered at Mathura, Ambala and Bhopal will get more air assets. Soon after taking over as www.geopolitics.in
Army Chief, General Bikram Singh, talked to Defence Minister AK Antony, to get approvals for some critical requirements, such as 1,300 bulletproof vehicles. Indian Army also wants additional air assets including a flight of five or six fixed-wing transport planes for tactical airlift of troops for each of its command headquarters. The Indian Navy’s efforts are aimed at “tackling the emerging threats in the Indian Ocean Region” and on its part, it has fared much better than the Army and the Air Force, with a mix of indigenous warships and state-of-theart imports. More than 100 ships were built at various shipyards after construction of indigenous warships was taken up at Mazagaon Dock in Mumbai. Vessels such as the indigenouslymanufactured Shivalik-class and Talwar-class stealth ships have bolstered the ‘blue-water’ abilities of the Navy. These ships are adept at undertaking a broad spectrum of maritime mission
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and projecting power for long-term maritime missions. In addition to this, the Navy is also undertaking the development of expeditionary warfare assets manufacture of three landing platform docks indigenously. The force is expected to spend `3,00,000 crore to boost its capabilities in the next two decades. This, after obtaining a raft of top-of-the-line ships and submarines in recent years. The Ministry of Defence (Navy) Integrated Headquarters Chief Vice-Admiral B Kannan has already announced that the force will see a 35 per cent growth in the next 15 years. At present the Navy has more than 40 warships on order with various public and private shipyards, including seven indigenous frigates at Mumbai and Kolkata. In the coming decades, the Navy is expected to procure more airborne maritime surveillance assets, shore-based and carrierbased aircraft, and unmanned aerial vehicles. Plans are afoot for the acquisition of six new conventional submarines with air independent propulsion and the ability to launch cruise missile. In order to give the fleet the ability to project itself far away from home ports, two fleet tankers have also been acquired for long-range operational deployments. In addition October 2012
g to arming the INS Chakra, an Akula-class submarine leased from Russia, and indigenouslyproduced nuclear-powered submarine Arihant, with ballistic missiles the Navy has developed Air Station Baaz which, overlooks the Six Degree Channel, the vital shipping lane for global traffic, and is crucial in observing the Malacca Strait and the Bay of Bengal. Infrastructure at the air station has been substantially upgraded to enable operations by heavier aircraft, including refuelling, maintenance and repair. In addition to this, another base INS Dweeprakshak has been established on the western islands of Lakwadeep to combat piracy its use could also extend to long-term strategic maritime activity. Instead of the enemy, the Indian Air Force is battling rapidly depleting force levels and all efforts are being made to raising current combat aircraft squadron strength from 34 to 42. Speaking to reporters after reviewing the combined Graduation Day parade of flying officers at Dundigal Air Force Academy near Hyderabad Air Chief Marshal NAK Browne said that the ongoing modernisation of Indian Air Force would be accomplished by 2020. “All the contracts which are signed during the 11th plan are about `1.12 lakh crore and they will be executed till 2017. At least 65 to 70 per cent of modernisation will be accomplished by 2017, and the rest by 2022...So 12th and 13th Five-Year plans are very crucial for IAF.” At the Seventh International Conference on Energising Indian Aerospace Industry organised by Confederation of Indian Industry and the Centre for Air Power Studies, Air www.geopolitics.in
Marshal RK Sharma, Deputy Chief of the Air Staff, said that Indian Air Force will spend `2 lakh crore on procurements during 12th and 13th Plan periods. He also said that $ 4 billion worth of contracts had already been signed. The Air Force has several big ticket buy lined up but it has suffered repeatedly due to delay in acquisitions and long drawn out procurement plans. Programmes like a wideranging upgradation of the IAF’s airfields through a programme called Modernisation of Airfield Infrastructure (MAFI), a sophisticated communication network called AFNET, more midair refuelers and AWACS, have been cleared by the government. The deal for Hawk Advanced Jet Trainer took more than twenty years and the $11-billion MMRCA deal for the French Rafale will be long in the coming. Orders have also been placed for 48 indigenous Tejas aircraft from HAL. The Air Force is all set to procure Light Combat Helicopters from HAL, 22 AH-64D Apache Longbow heavy attack helicopters from Boeing, Mi17V-5 helicopters from Russian helicopters and 15 more heavylift helicopters. Orders were recently placed for 75 Pilatus PC7 basic trainer aircraft. A $2.4billion Request for Information was also placed for the replacement of the Hawker Siddeley HS 748 aircraft in addition to one for a stealth unmanned combat air vehicle (UCAV) to international suppliers. Russia and India have joined hands for the joint production of a multirole transport aircraft (MTA) and the PAK-50 fifth generation fighter aircraft which is expected to cross the `one lakh crore mark and will form the backbone of the IAF in the years ahead. HAL and the DRDO are also developing the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), the HAL HJT-36 Sitara HAL Light Observation Helicopter (LOH) and AURA (Autonomous Unmanned Research Aircraft) UCAV.
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SAAB IN INDIA GETS NEW CHIEF
FORMER SWEDISH Ambassador Lars-Olof Lindgren will return to India as the chief of Saab’s operations in the subcontinent. LarsOlof Lindgren’s experience and relationships with the Indian and Swedish governments and industries will further reinforce Saab’s longterm commitment to the Indian market. He succeeds Jan Widerstrom. Widerstrom will move on to a new assignment with the Saab Group, the release added. Saab President and CEO, Håkan Buskhe said, “India has been identified to be one of Saab’s most important markets and we look forward to welcoming Lars-Olof who, with his considerable experience of India, will enable us to contribute significantly to the country’s defence industry, forge new relationships with the Indian private sector and build strong, collaborative partnerships.” Lars-Olof Lindgren feels that defence collaboration between India and Sweden has reached an important phase and companies like Saab can strengthen and further the association. His experience and learnings of Indian market from his tenure as the Ambassador will aid Saab in a big way in fostering its plans in India. Lars-Olof Lindgren expressed his happiness on taking up the new role thus: “I am proud to take on the role as head of Saab’s business in the country. During my years as Ambassador, I have followed Saab’s efforts on this market with great interest. I look forward to be a part of this high technological global company which has been very clear with its increased ambitions in a number of different markets. It will be very interesting and stimulating to lead this work in India.” Lars-Olof Lindgren was the Ambassador of Sweden to India between 2007 and 2012. Before taking office in The Embassy of Sweden, New Delhi, Lars-Olof Lindgren was the State Secretary to the Prime Minister dealing with International Affairs and the European Union. Prior to this, he was the State Secretary for Trade in the Ministry of Trade and Industry.
October 2012
DEF BIZ
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BOE ING
CHOPPER DEALS ON THE ANVIL
WARFARE.RU
BOEING
Interferometer (RFI). Made by Northrop Grumman, the Longbow, can scan up to 256 targets within 30. Though Boeing’s bid is secret, the estimated market price of 22 helicopters is around $1.4 billion. India has been offered the latest Block-III version of the Apache by the US and the machine is network capable. Significantly, the Apache uses Kevlar and composite materials for weight-reduction and protection. In the other bid for the heavy-lift choppers, the Russian Mi-26 is in contention with the CH 47F Chinook. India already has a few of the Russian machines and they are reportedly one of the most powerful helicopters ever to go into production. Compared to the Chinook’s tandem rotor design the Mi-26 has an eight-blade rotor and it can lift up to 20 metric tonnes. But then the Americans have an edge. Though it has been in operation for over fifty years now, CH 47F Chinook is regarded as “more capable” than the Mi-26. First used during the Vietnam War, the Chinook has been used in almost every military conflict that America has been involved in. Continually upgraded over the years the Chinooks roles include troop movement, artillery emplacement and battlefield resupply. It has a wide loading ramp at the rear of the fuselage and three external-cargo hooks. In service with more than 16 nations around the world the CH-47F can fly at a speed of over 282 km/h with a payload of more than 9,530 kg. The Boeing Chinook is on a Direct Commercial Sales (DCS) offer, while the Apache deal is on both commercial and the US Government’s Foreign Military Sales (FMS) programme.
INDIA’S BID to give more rotary muscle to its armed forces, in the form of the acquisition of new attack chopper and heavy-lift helicopters, is in the final lap. Defence Ministry sources have confirmed that the bids for the helicopters are in the final stages. “It is at the last mile stage”, said one of www.geopolitics.in
them. The financial bid for 22 attack helicopters now only involves the American Boeing Apache AH-64D gunship as Russia had withdrawn its Mi28 earlier this year. Equipped with an advanced sensor suite and a glass cockpit AH-64D Apache is equipped with the dome installed over the main rotor, housing the AN/APG-78 Longbow millimeter-wave Fire Control Radar (FCR) target acquisition system and the Radar Frequency
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October 2012
g VERIZON HAS joined Lockheed Martin’s Cyber Security Alliance, becoming the first telecom company to enter the private partnership that includes tech giants such as Microsoft, Symantec and Dell, among others. Introduced in 2009 along with the NexGen Cyber Innovation and Technology Center, the Alliance has the goal of improving cyber security practices across the private sector and collaborating with the US government to face the increasing threat of cyber attacks, which can cause realworld problems such as economic losses due to cyber crime and cyber espionage. “We understand the cyber security threat is real,” Sonya Cork, Verizon’s vice president of Department of Defense and International Services, told Mashable. “And it’s something that our top leaders in the country are starting to pay attention to and we really believe we have a lot to offer to the alliance in terms of providing greater insight and solutions.” According to Lockheed’s Curt Aubley, the company started the Alliance in 2009 with the intention of creating a collaborative environment and sharing knowledge and solutions through the NexGen Cyber Innovation and Security Center.
www.geopolitics.in
SCANNERS TO SCREEN TRUCKS IN J&K THE DEFENCE Acquisition Council (DAC) has approved buying two high truck whole scanners for trucks at a cost of `60 crore. The DAC, chaired by the Defence Minister AK Antony, felt the scanning equipment was required by the security forces to be deployed at places in Jammu and Kashmir where cross-border trade routes have been opened across the Line of Control. The Army sought to procure the two scanners to scan cargo trucks, including driver’s cabin, without unloading and unpacking the cargo. The aim is to avoid illegal transhipment of restricted items such as arms, ammunition and chemicals. Smiths Detection is the world leader in this segment of security equipment.
PRATT & WHITNEY GETS THE AETD NOD PRATT & WHITNEY has been selected for funding by the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) for the Adaptive Engine Technology Development (AETD) programme. The AETD programme is an initiative by the AFRL Propulsion Directorate to mature critical fuel-burn reduction technologies and engine design features that could transition into legacy and next- generation military fighter aircraft. “Pratt & Whitney is pleased to have been selected to participate in the AETD programme and we look forward to delivering a solution that helps lower fuel costs, and increases operational capability for the warfighter,” said Bennett Croswell, President, Pratt & Whitney Military Engines. “By merging innovative adaptive engine and nextgeneration technologies with the best features of our proven F119 and F135 engines, PRATT & WHITNEY
VERIZON JOINS LOCKHEED CYBER ALLIANCE
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we aim to reduce fuel burn up to 25 per cent more than the current generation of fighter engines.” The AETD programme will lead to demonstration testing of an advanced high operating pressure ratio (OPR) core in late 2015, to be followed in 2016 by full engine testing of a three-stream adaptive fan and three-stream compatible augmentor and exhaust system. The introduction of the third flow path stream will allow the engine operating conditions and resultant bypass ratio to be modulated to optimise performance across all power settings and flight conditions. This will significantly reduce total mission-weighted fuel burn. “We’re confident that our technical approach will ultimately give future combat aircraft added range and payload capabilities, while reducing the cost burden of expensive jet fuel,” added Croswell. “From an operational perspective, our end goal is to provide pilots more flexibility in accomplishing the mission.” October 2012
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HEMANT RAWAT
CALCULATED UNION: The proposed merger would create a defence powerhouse which produces iconc weapons such as the Eurocopter Typhoon (left) and the CV 90 (facing page)
TITANIC MERGER ON THE CARDS BAE and EADS are discussing a merger of the two firms. This new entity will have the potential to alter defence business significantly. An in-depth report on the impact of the merger on the global and India defence markets
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ILL IT or won’t it? In keeping with the way such mega-mergers go, the BAE-EADS marriage will go through government chambers across several countries, backroom lobbies of many political parties and, of course, the regulatory authorities across continents before the seal of approval is put finally. But if it does
EADS-BAE JVs MBDA BAE Systems (37.5 per cent), EADS (37.5 per cent) Finmeccanica (25 per cent) Eurofighter Typhoon Alenia Aermacchi (Italy): 21 per cent BAE Systems (UK): 33 per cent Cassdian (Spain): 13 per cent Cassdian Manching (Germany): 33 per cent Dassault Aviation Group (manufacturer of Rafale) Dassault Group (50.55 per cent) EADS (46.32 per cent) Private investors (3.13 per cent) www.geopolitics.in
happen, it will be one heck of a merger with revenues of well over $ 100 billion between them. The merged entity would be a rival to the US defence contractors, not only in terms of sales and financial capability, but also in terms of technology and innovations. And, it is clearly something that Boeing isn’t relishing. The BAE-EADS merger would translate into the world’s largest integrated defence and commercial aviation company Sales would be around $93 billion. It’s almost a third over Boeing’s turnover! Just take a look at this: BAE’s electronics and controls are part of over 6,000 Boeing jets in use by airlines worldwide BAE supplies more than 50,000 cockpit and cabin parts to the American aircraft manufacturer each year BAE has been chosen to build a state-of-the-art touch-screen controller for the Boeing 767 aerial refuelling tanker — a bid it won after fierce competition BAE is a major supplier to Lockheed Martin Corp on the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter It is also working with Lockheed on Humvee truck replacement for the US army
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On the other end of the spectrum, you have EADS in major collaboration with US companies: It has collaborated with General Dynamics Corp to compete for a border security contract. Its most high-profile collaboration was with Northrop Grumman Corp for the refuelling tanker that they lost to Boeing. Announcing the ongoing discussion for merger with EADS, BAE system in its press statement said: “BAE Systems and EADS believe that
THOMAS ENDERS October 2012
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THE TWO COMPANIES Profile of BAE
Global defence, aerospace and security company. 93,500 employees worldwide. Five home markets — the US, the UK, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Australia and India. Full range of products and services for air, land and naval forces. Electronics, security, information technology solutions and customer support services. Business Cyber & Intelligence — 7 per cent Electronic systems —14 per cent Platforms & Services — the US 27 per cent, the UK 32 per cent, International 20 per cent. Sales — £19.154 billion; order — £36.2 billion in the US. Order backlog — £8.9bn, sales £5.3bn Employee — 34,800 in the UK, 37,300 in the US, 100 in India.
Profile of EADS
Founded in 2000, Europe’s premier aerospace and defence company. Four constituent companies — Eurocopter, Cassidian, Airbus and Astrium. Airbus is one of the top two manufacturers of commercial aircraft. Also manufactures civil helicopters, space launch vehicles and missiles, military aircraft, satellites and defence electronics. Employees — 135,000 Revenue (2011) — €49.1 billion, civil sector (76 per cent), defence sector (24 per cent) Target — To be global leader in aerospace and defence with revenues of €80 billion by 2020. Order — €541.0 billion (as of December 31, 2011) Net cash — €11.7 billion (as of March 2012)
the potential combination of the two businesses offers significant benefits for all stakeholders, over and above their individual business strategies, which both businesses continue to
execute strongly. In particular, they believe that the combination of the two complementary businesses offers the opportunity of greater innovation, long-term financial stability, and an extended market presence, which will enable them to compete even more effectively on the world stage.” The two companies have a ‘long history of collaboration’ and are jointly executing numerous ‘important projects, including the Eurofighter’ (see box). After the confirmation of the possible combination of their businesses, the joint firm will be the ‘world’s leading international aerospace, defence and security group’ and will have its footprint with ‘manufacturing and technology excellence’ across the globe. The deal is yet to receive confirmation from the boards of the respective companies. In the combined entity, the BAE System’s share would be around 40 per cent of the total while EADS’ share would be the rest. The two companies will have “identical boards and executive committees at each of BAE Systems and EADS” and on top there would be a “unified board”. The corporate world is abuzz about the sharing of intellectual rights and firewalls that exist for the sensitive products. The BAE Systems earns a large chunk of its business from the US market, which is very sensitive in terms of sharing of technology. The combined entity will operate across the different countries and, therefore, the political
BAE SYSTEMS
DICK OLVER www.geopolitics.in
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October 2012
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The Road Ahead
Once the shareholders’ approval is in place, it is likely that special shares will be issued in BAE Systems and EADS to each of the French, German and UK governments to replace the existing DEFBIZ shareholding In the UK, the Parliamentary Defence Committee announced it an examinaleaders will have a say in a subcontractor on classified contion of the merger and its the deal. In Europe, the tracts. There is no guarantee that will impact on British indusmerger and acquisition of continue, once the deal goes through. try. “BAE Systems and any major corporation After all, this unique arrangement EADS operate highly becomes a politicallyalso looks through the prism and sees capable and sensitive sensitive issue. The a British company. Not so once the defence businesses in French government’s merger is effected! But the general many countries including reaction to the Arcelorconsensus is that the supply chain the UK, the USA, France, Mittal merger is still fresh will be disrupted. Like BAE, EADS Germany, Spain, Sweden, in the collective memory of also has a security agreement in South Africa, India, Saudi Arathe European public. place, and a merger would require bia and Australia,” the commitBAE Systems and EADS are approval by the United States. tee said and added: “The merger FRANCOIS HOLLANDE working out an arrangement This merger has potential to alter of two such large defence conwhere the sensitive technology will be the Indian defence scenario to some tractors would have a significant and ring-fenced and arrangement approextent. India is considered a home strategic impact on their relationships priate to the significance of those prodmarket by BAE Systems. The Indian with the UK, the US and European govucts or technology will be in place, so Army’s famed Bofors gun comes from ernments. It could also radically alter the that national security is not comprothe BAE stable and the Indian Air defence industrial base in these counmised. This arrangement is being put Force will be training its future pilots tries. “The Committee has already up particularly for the US. EADS, at on BAE’s Hawk advanced jet trainer announced oral evidence from witnesses present, is a Franco-German entity at for the next three decades. Recently, during October and November focussing large and the US will not be happy with India ordered another 20 of these airon the protection of British its access to sensitive technology. craft (see page 15). The total number interests. France, for the same reason, has decidordered has reached 140. India is also UK Defence Minister ed to go ahead with its own frontline manufacturing 155/39 caliber FH-77 Vince Cable offered his fighter aircraft and naval warships. The (Bofors) guns, for which the transfer support to the deal by UK, on the other hand, works very of technology was done during the waving off “emotion closely with the US on sensitive 1980s and the Ordnance Factory about foreign weapon systems including the F-35 Board is going to manufacture these takeovers” . Lightning II and nuclear submarines. guns in India. BAE is also participatIt’s likely to be But the ring fencing or even writing with Mahindra in the Future ten-down guarantees are no help Infantry Combat Vehicle (FICV ) promore complicated in when the most potent rival to US gramme for the replacement of BMP France with the manufacturers decides to merge with II infantry carrier. French government another rival who works in close colSimilarly, EADS is participating in that controls more than laboration with the Pentagon. In fact, deals such as air-refuelling tankers, 20 per cent of EADS indithe general assessment amongst light-utility helicopter deals through cating that it would want to competitors and allies is that the deal Airbus Military and Eurocopter. The remain a stakeholder in VINCE CABLE would actually be disruptive, to say Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft the new company. Gerthe least, and could end up unravel(MMRCA) programme, where Rafale many too isn’t very gung ho. It believes ling complex well-settled relationof Dassault has been shortlisted, is there are inadequate guarantees on ships that have stood the test of time partly owned by EADS. The most keeping company sites open — a for years and worth billions of affected company by this merger will critical element if Germany has dollars in business. be MBDA — the European missile to be on board. While EADS will not have major — in which both EADS and Of course, the US govthat much at stake, both BAE are equal partners and Finernment will also have a BAE and companies mecanica is the third and minor partmajor say. It is one of aligned with the British ner. MBDA is slated to supply misBAE’s biggest customers. giant in collaborating in siles for the Rafale fighter and is also One of the allures of the the US market are worparticipating in a number of surfacedeal, if one could call it ried at the concerns that to-air missile tenders. MBDA has also that for EADS, is the entry BAE’s new partner, EADS, received the contract for 500 MICA that the merger will offer has German and Francomissile systems for `6600 crore. to the US market. It has so German ownership. What The merger is going to have a far failed to penetrate that BAE enjoys at the moment major impact in India as a number of market and it is unlikely that is a “special security agreedeals, which are under execution, will BAE will go ahead with the ment”, or SSA granted by the US go to the new entity. It will be deal with its thumb down from Department of Defence (DoD) extremely interesting to see how ANGELA MERKEL the US. that green lights its position as things work out. www.geopolitics.in
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October 2012
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GEOPOLITICS
INTERVIEW
“THE FENNEC IS UNBEATABLE!” Rainer Farid, Vice President, South Asia, Eurocopter, is confident about the prospects of his company in India. In this candid interview with JUSTIN C MURIK, he talks about the relations with HAL, the controversial LUH bid for 197 choppers and the development of a new heavy-lift helicopter On the legacy of Eurocopter in India We have been here for 40 years now. We have already gained a lot of experience in India, due to the fact that we were actually the first helicopter manufacturer to start transfer of technology and cooperation with Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL). The result is that HAL has manufactured over six hundred Cheetah/Chetaks — and after 40 years they are still flying. We are still cooperating with HAL in terms of spare parts, technical assistance, maintenance and repairs. Although this is becoming more and more difficult. There has been an ongoing project for the last seven years, which is the gradual replacement of the Cheetah/Chetak helicopters with modern light helicopters and this RFP (Request for Proposal) is now on for a second time. It seems that this RFP is somehow quite difficult to close for the Indian MoD (Ministry of Defence) and the problem is, and very clearly we have stated this also during the Defexpo 2012, that it becomes extremely difficult to continue to support Cheetah/Chetak due to the fact that vendors are closing down the production lines. We have closed our production line for Alouette and Lama around 1985. If you manufacture a helicopter, like HAL does, we may be manufacture 50 per cent or 55 per cent — maximum 60 per cent of the helicopter, the rest is vendor parts. So, we don’t produce all the parts — we are dependent on the engine www.geopolitics.in
manufacturer, we are dependent on vendors, who supply spare parts, or parts, or components for the helicopter. And as I mentioned, we are trying to do our best to help HAL identify or reopen assembly lines for components for Cheetah/ Chetak, but it is becoming more difficult over time. That means if no decision is taken until the end of this year, or beginning of next year, to go ahead with the replacement programme, for whatever reasons, then it becomes a problem for flight safety, for national security, for defence preparedness of the Army and the Air Force. On the fallout of the delay It will be less and less possible (to provide support), but they have already started to cannibalise the machines — and that means the availability will be dropping to a certain percentage and the problem of spare parts supply will get unmanageable. If you talk to the Army pilots and Air Force pilots, they are quite familiar with this kind of helicopter. On the production of Fennec once a deal for the 197 choppers is finalised If the deal is closed, let’s say, by March 31, 2013 — which is very much possible — then the RFP requirement is to start the delivery of the first helicopters, 12 months after signature. We are manufacturing 100 helicopters of this type (Fennec) for years…that is civil and military altogether. It is a proven and fully-compliant certified armed helicopter. Our
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production line is on-going, so we have identified production slots for the Indian RFP. We have identified an additional hangar for this quantity. We will be able to deliver the first helicopters in 12 months, and then at the rate of a minimum of 30 helicopters per year — which nobody else can do. This RFP for the LUH requires for the full transfer of technology regarding the deep maintenance to HAL. That means that in production of components of this helicopter India today wants to be independent of foreign suppliers. So this is one big step, which is important — that means after tomorrow if HAL wants to be in a position to manufacture all the components in the country (it can do so). This is very clearly specified in the RFP. So we are bound to give it all the knowhow and transfer of technology (TOT) so that HAL is able to manage its own manufacturing of components if it wants. Otherwise, it can sub-contract within India if it wants. This is something which has not been done before. The communication and philosophy and the familiar handling with HAL is an advantage because it knows how we work; we know how its works. On the total number of Fennec military helicopters on order For this specific military type I think we have 400 or so. Well there are the Arab countries. Abu Dhabi, the Emirates, South Africa and Brazil. I think 12 countries are flying the chopper. October 2012
g INTERVIEW On the latest development on the Fennec deal The trials had been finalised in December 2010, and if I’m not mistaken, the trial report has been submitted in the beginning of 2011 — and then the file went up and down and I think a report was signed by October-November 2011. Subsequent to this, a Technical Oversight Committee had been called to analyse the trial report and in 2012 — I think in April — a special Technical Oversight Committee was called. What we heard from the media is that apparently some competitors, who were not in the competition anymore, started to write anonymous letters complaining against the trials. It’s only regrettable… anyone can write anonymous letters and I think the MoD should not react to this. Also as our CEO mentioned during the Defexpo, the project is not yet concluded for reasons that are unknown to us. We had written a letter to the then Army Chief, V K Singh, sometime in March, asking why it has not been concluded since from our side the trials were fully compliant, the trials were fully concluded. There’s nothing that we can think of from our side, why this shouldn’t go ahead unless there is some problem with the competitor, with the Russians. That is possible, maybe.
The idea was that there would be cooperation between Eurocopter and HAL under LUH by using certain dynamic components from Eurocopter and using HAL technology. And then HAL told us that this was going to be a totally indigenous project. It received the go-ahead from the MoD and split the programme in two: 197 choppers were to be bought off-the-shelf and 184 were to be built by HAL. HAL has a number of different programmes running — it has the Dhruv, which is a very good helicopter; then it
has LCH (Light Combat Helicopter); and, it has all the other programmes running with the MMRCA. The capabilities of a design and development office, even Eurocopter, are limited. If you have too many programmes, you cannot continue to develop. I foresee a large delay in the LUH. Our idea was let’s start with 197… we cooperate with HAL on that — start quick deliveries from the factories and then cooperate with HAL on the LUH, continue a little bit in the same philosophy. That was our idea to accelerate and I don’t see how LUH will proceed …it’s a huge delay actually. On the user trials I found the user trials very fair. The problem we had was that the Russian helicopter — the Kamov 226 — is really not a helicopter suitable for this kind of mission. First of all, it is old technology, it’s a big helicopter, it’s heavy, it’s not a proven platform, it has not been certified or certified only by the Russian entity. The RFP calls for international certification agencies. On the performance of the Fennec in the user trials Unbeatable…the best…that’s why our helicopter landed
On the comparison of the Fennec to the Kamov 226 The Kamov 226 is not an aircraft for this RFP. It is not mentioned in this RFP. On the HAL’s Light Utility Helicopter (LUH) programme HAL is not yet ready with the LUH. It will take it six years before it will be able to deliver…six years…I don’t know what the armed forces are going to do. You see we have been working with HAL on the LUH programme since the beginning.
HEMANT RAWAT
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October 2012
g INTERVIEW on Mt Everest…the trials are done in almost the same conditions. We were selected twice in the first RFP. I mean we proved it twice. On the offsets clause and tie-ups with Indian players We have signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the Mahindras. For the time being, in the offsets obligations, because we have 50 per cent offset obligations, our’s is one of the only two projects which have fifty per cent offset obligations, the other is the MMRCA (Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft). So, of course, 50 per cent of the total contract value is a lot of offset obligations, we have to look at different industries — that each industry specialises in a different sector, because if we buy parts from India, we have to reintegrate it in our global supply chain. HAL and Mahindras today make part of Eurocopter’s local supply chain — HAL for composite parts and Mahindras starting now for mechanical parts, air-frame parts. We have signed MoUs with 50 offset-eligible Indian companies, which are in the list of defence production companies. So yes, everybody will be involved.
On participation in the Indian Navy’s RFP for 56 Naval light-utility helicopters We will most probably be participating in this RFP. The Panther is an option and a smaller helicopter is another option. We have different options for the time being and we are deciding how we are going to participate in this category. On the multi-role helicopter (MRH) programme of the Indian Navy for 16 choppers That is an on-going programme. There we are offering the NH-90 NATO frigate helicopter. But the NH-90 helicopter offered here is part of a four-nation programme — Agusta Westland is leading
PROGRAMME
NUMBER
EC MODEL
197choppers
AS550 Fennec
56 choppers
AS565 Panther
approx.100 choppers
EC725
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On the second Indian Navy multi-role helicopter programme for 44 choppers That is a huge programme. We are thinking to probably offer the EC 725. That will, I believe, be a ‘Buy and Make’ programme because we have such a large
VERSATILE PERRFORMER: In use with air forces around the world, the Fennec multipurpose helicopter is based on the AS355 Ecureuil which landed near Mt Everest
Reconnaissance and Surveillance Helicopter program (RSH) programme Navy Naval Utility Helicopter (NUH) programme Naval medium, multi-role
the campaign here — so in that case we are just an industrial partner. There has been some controversy here as the Sea Hawk is a much smaller helicopter and the NH 90 is a much bigger helicopter. For me the NH 90 is the best naval helicopter in this class.
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g INTERVIEW number. There will be one part that will be ‘buy’ and the other part, which will be made in India. The Sikorsky H-92 will be among competitors. We will be coming with the 725 most probably and Agusta Westland — I don’t know what they will be doing but probably the NH 90 will be there also. And then who else is there? In this category that’s all I can see, except that the Russians take out something from the bag. I don’t know. Let’s see. That’s going to be very interesting.
On new ventures By the end of the year, we are going to approach the Indian MoD and the Indian industry for partner, who will team up with Eurocopter, and maybe a third partner, for a next-generation heavy-lift helicopter. Talks occurred during the Berlin Air Show in Germany where we presented this idea for the first time to defence manufacturers. It’s going to be the tandem wing successor to the Chinook… with a prototype by 2016. We are going to organise a symposium — maybe sometime in October or November, where we are going to present this new idea. It will have the capacity to transport about 35 troops and the range and the ceiling height will also be increased. We are focusing on the world market and we are looking for an industrial partner with engineering capabilities. So India is one of the countries where we would like to consult to become a partner in this programme. We have also talked to Boeing since it is already doing this with the Chinook. We
are looking at a market of 600 to 700 helicopters. Our aim is also to tour the world and visit different operators and to get inputs from them — like the experience they had with different manufacturers of different components, engines, avionics and what would they like to see in this helicopter. On the orders to the US military Yes, we have already delivered 100 Lakota helicopters to them — on time, on schedule. It was a huge breakthrough because, as you know, the US market for military is closed. We are the first ones who have broken into that market with this medium-light Lakota helicopter, which is basically the design of the EC 145. It is partially manufactured in the US with American engines. It is very successful and we have been on time with this project. Our next lot is going to be an armed version. We are thinking about a naval version — so all this is on-going. And to be accepted in the US as a foreign supplier… we are quite happy with that.
EUROCOPTER
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9
Lakh displaced in India
INDIA HAS THE WORLD’S 11TH LARGEST POPULATION OF ‘INTERNALLY DISPLACED PEOPLE’ (IDP) FORCED TO RELOCATE FEARING RELIGIOUS, ETHNIC OR OTHER PERSECUTION IN CONFLICT-INDUCED SITUATIONS ACCORDING TO AN IDP DATABASE PRODUCED BY THE NORWEGIAN REFUGEE COUNCIL (NRC). MOST OF THE NATIONS IN THE LIST ARE EITHER DEVASTATED BY CONTINUING WARS OR ARE RECOVERING FROM MAJOR CALAMITIES, WITH INDIA AND TURKEY THE ONLY ‘STABLE’ COUNTRIES WHICH HAVE BEEN WITNESS TO A FORCED MIGRATION OF A MILLION OR MORE.
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of illegal arms and fake Indian currency notes. According to the Minister, the government is pursuing a multi-pronged approach to tackle espionage activities including strengthening of border management to check illegal cross-border activities, strengthening of state and central intelligence machinery and upgrade of police and security forces with advanced sophisticated weapons and communication system.
` note to be updated
IN A bid to thwart the threat from fake Indian currency notes, the Reserve Bank of India will soon issue `1,000 denomination notes with the rupee symbol and enhanced
security features. The innovative notes will have the letter ‘L’ in both the numbering panels, according to an RBI statement, with the year of printing on the reverse. The design of these notes will be similar in all respects to the `1,000 bank notes in the Mahatma Gandhi Series-2005 issued earlier.
1,100 Naxal attacks www.geopolitics.in
Left CRPF, BSF
Spies held
14 PAKISTANI spies were either arrested or neutralised along with 49 Indians who were arrested for espionage in the last three years, according to Minister of State for Home, Jitendra Prasada. Of the 63 arrested agents, three were found to have been involved in criminal activities such as being in possession
THE JAWANS either resigned or took voluntary retirement during 2009-11. To find out the reasons for such a large number of personnel leaving the central police forces, the central government commissioned IIM Ahmedabad to do a study. The report has some alarming observations. Discrepancy in salaries, lack of sleep, poor quality of uniforms and a lack of clarity in orders were some of the many reasons that the study found responsible for personnel quitting the forces.
destroyed includes property belonging to public/private sector units, railway property, telephone exchanges, mobile towers, power infrastructure, roads, school and panchayat buildings among others. The damage in monetary terms runs into hundreds of crores.
THOUGHTSO.WORDPRESS.COM
LEFT-WING insurgents have managed to notch up these hits on the economic infrastructure in the past three years. In 2012, 163 attacks took place till July. According to Minister of State for Home, Jitendra Prasada, the infrastructure
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CRIME, ILLEGAL migration and border firing were some of the activities associated with these exposed spots along India’s boundary with Pakistan and Bangladesh. There are 28 of these posts in Jammu while another 23 exist on the Pakistani border with Punjab. The Border Security Force identified 112 of its 987 border outposts (BOPs) spread across five states as vulnerable on the border with Bangladesh. The border guarding force is planning to construct 286 more border outposts on the border with Pakistan and Bangladesh. The border with Pakistan is 2,308 km long while the IndiaBangladesh border is 4,096.70 km long.
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1,000 ISD calls made from Punjab jail THE CALLS were made in a three-month period from the “highsecurity” jail in Nabha in Punjab’s Patiala district, which houses hardened terrorists. The figures were released after an analysis of the call detail report (CDR) of SIM cards seized from the jail. Six working SIM cards, along with seven broken HELPFORFELONS.NET
Vulnerable BSF border outposts identified
834
SOFTWARE SECURITY services provider Norton has claimed that 42 million people were affected by consumer cybercrime in the past 12 months alone. In its annual cybercrime report,
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Chinese workers in PoK
ACCORDING TO a report in the Hindustan Times quoting unnamed sources in Military Intelligence, at least 834 Chinese workers are working on infrastructure projects in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). The development projects include the road and hydroelectric projects in the Himalayan region. On his
Billion dollars lost to cyber crime in India
ones, were recovered with 14 mobile phones from the jail that houses 550 inmates. According to the report, the terrorists also made and received calls from the internet through the Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) from around the world.
visit to India, the visiting Chinese Defence Minister General Liang Guanglie, had announced that not a single soldier of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was present in PoK. The presence of the Chinese personnel in PoK was also one of the subjects that were discussed between Liang and the India Defence Minister AK Antony.
the security services company said that this represented an 18 per cent increase. Globally, the losses due to cybercrime were pegged at $110 billion. The report also said that as many as 66 per cent of online adults had been a victim of cybercrime in their lifetime in India. Cyber crime has claimed over 1,15,000 victims per day, 80 victims per minute and over one every second, according to the Norton report.
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Crore spent on Kasab
WITH THE crores spent on him, Kasab probably ranks as the most expensive criminal imprisoned in Indian jails. According to a report in The Times of India quoting senior IPS officers and top bureaucrats associated with the 26/11 case, the special security at Mumbai’s Arthur Road jail, operating costs on judicial officers, special public prosecutor and special security cover for the judge and lawyers connected with the case cost a whopping `43 crore. A special cell at the jail for the 26/11 terrorist, which can reportedly withstand an attack from a truck bomb, cost `8 crore to erect. These figures are in contravention to the figures submitted in a report by Maharashtra Home Minister RR Patil, which stated that the only `20 crore had been spent. October 2012
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MONITORING THE
COASTLINE With the commissioning of the Remote Operating Stations set up as part of the Coastal Radar Network to provide security cover for the Indian coastline, it is time to think beyond simply “trackable but difficult to monitor and identify” targets to ones that are extremely difficult to detect, writes SAURAV JHA
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S THE United States (US) experience with semi-submersibles, narco-submarines and fibreglass go-fast boats being used by drug cartels in the Americas reveals, there are several platforms out there which can be cobbled together by non-state actors for covert operations that are rather difficult to detect by existing sensors such as radar, sonar or infrared. The 26/11 attacks in Mumbai tragically drove home the point in Delhi that India’s coastlines were far from secure and the next wave of terrorist attacks on the Indian mainland might just find the seaborne option just as lucrative. Shaken out of its stupor, the Government of India (GoI) has expedited by its own standards the setting-up of a coastal surveillance network (CSN) consisting of both static radar and electro-optical sensors at various remote sites under the auspices of the Indian Coast Guard (ICG). While some sites on the west coast have already come online, apparently ahead of schedule, Defence Minister AK Antony has reportedly assured the Indian people that the first phase of this project will be complete by mid-2013. www.geopolitics.in
At the moment, even as the coastal network comes up on various locations, efforts have to be made to integrate it with other tracking and sensor networks already operational along the Indian coastline. Beyond that, however, attention needs to be given to developing and deploying systems that can detect threats such as fibreglass semi-submersibles and go-fast boats that have very low detectability signatures. Given worldwide trends and India’s strengthening coastal defences, non-state actors might just opt to up the ante by using asymmetric innovations in a bid to penetrate India’s defences. The so-called Chain of Static Sensors project, also known as the CSN, being led by the ICG actually traces its origin from the recommendations made by the Group of Ministers (GoM) constituted after the Kargil conflict for overhauling India’s national security system. After much deliberation (read almost a decade) it was decided that the ICG would implement this project by defining project requirements and undertaking a detailed vulnerability ‘Gap analysis’ in consonance with other stakeholders, such as the Director General Lighthouses
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& Lightships (DGLL), Indian Navy and concerned state g ov e r n m e n t s etc. The feasibility study led by the ICG came up with a plan to implement the CSN in two phases. Under Phase-I of the network, static sensors would be put up at 46 different locations along the Indian coast, with 36 on the mainland, 6 in the Lakshadweep & Minicoy Islands and four in the Andaman & Nicobar Islands. Phase-I was tailored to provide surveillance around areas of high sensitivity and traffic density along our coastline. Near gap-free real-time surveillance cover up to 25 nautical miles from the Indian coastline would, however, be achieved only with Phase-II, when 38 additional remote radar sites October 2012
g FOCUS would be established as part of the CSN and these would be further complemented by some eight mobile surveillance units. As such, the project envisages the setting-up of frequency diversity radar, electro-optical sensors including CCD day cameras, low light television (LLTV) and thermal imagers, VHF sets and meteorological equipment on lighthouses and masts erected on DGLL land at up to 84 locations under both phases. The data generated by the various static sensors would flow over a robust hierarchal network architecture, connecting ICG District Headquarters (Regional Operating Stations) and Regional Headquarters
(Remote Operating Centres) to Coast Guard Headquarters (Control Centre) in New Delhi. The sensor data generated from this network would be further supplemented with the data from the National Automatic Identification System (NAIS). Each site would have automatic Identification system (AIS) equipment that would enable it to positively identify transponders installed in various Indian vessels under the NAIS scheme. It would also be interfaced with the Vessel Traffic Management Systems (VTMS) of major ports, a fishing vessel monitoring system, Long Range Identification and Tracking (LRIT) and the National Command Communication Control and intelligence Network (NC3I) of the Indian Navy. The end goal essentially, as the Defence Minister outlined recently, is to “achieve complete Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA) so that all our (India’s) security agencies, state governments and central government have real-time pictures and data of our waters”. At the very least the project would certainly boost the efficacy of Search and Rescue (SAR) operations conducted by the ICG. Be that as it may, the actual physical implementation of the project took off only in September 2011 when GoI signed a turnkey contract for the static sensors with Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL) at a cost of $108.5 million and an implementation schedule of 12 months and 18
months for the mainland and the island sites, respectively. At the moment it seems that those timelines are being roughly adhered to with most of the mainland sites likely to be operational by 2012 end. The NAIS itself is based on a network 74 lighthouses fitted with the Saab supplied AIS, which according to the company “provides real-time merchant traffic information and the web server allows access to live data over internet”. The NAIS network also has suitable interfaces that facilitate the incorporation of adding radar, cameras and other sensors which is exactly what is being pursued by integrating it with the emerging CSN. And it has already been integrated with the Gulf of Kachchh (GOK) VTMS network. Ultimately CSN, NAIS and VTMS taken together will give what Saab is calling a complete operating picture. Incidentally, Elcome Marine Services is Saab’s India partner for this project and has delivered the whole network, very small aperture terminals, leased lines, installation, project management, design, and installation. It will also be maintaining the entire system in association with Saab. This August saw the inauguration of the first two sites along the western coastline at Mumbai and Porbandar. It is not surprising that the upper Konkan and Gujarat coastlines are being accorded priority given their proximity to Pakistan and the high number of sensitive installations on these stretches. Indeed under the Maharashtra cluster of sites at Tarapur, Korlai, Tolkeshwar and Devgad are expected to become operational soon. Further south a Remote Operating Station (ROS) at Kochi had also become operational. It has been further revealed that some 21 VTMS sites in the Gulf of Kutch and Khambat will also be
RADAR SHIELD: India is investing considerable amount of security infrastructure in the hope of averting a possible repeat of the 26/11 terror attack EXELISINC.COM
ELVIN LONAN/FLICKR
BEACON OF HOPE: Equipped with state-of-the-art equipment, such as the R40 base station (inset), the chain of lighthouses around the country will provide comprehensive data about maritime activity around India’s coasts
augmented with similar electro-optical equipment as the CSN sites under Phase-II of the project.
ALL SEEING EYE The sensor suite at each remote site consists of: ¾ A 25-nautical-mile-range Terma Scanter 2100 HCP Frequency Diversity radar with a dual antenna for superior performance in monsoon weather, ¾ An ARGC-2400 active-range gated electro-optic (EO) sensor sourced from Obzerv Technologies with a range of up to 10 nautical miles in “fair weather.” ¾ An R40 Base Station from Saab Transponder Tech which is the main component of a physical AIS shore station as defined by the International Association of Lighthouse Authorities (IALA). Its main purpose is to receive data from and transmit data to AIS transponder equipped vessels, travelling within the coverage area of the Base Station. So basically the R40 is installed either stand-alone or integrated into a network enables a CSN site to interrogate vessels sporting registered transponders. ¾ A Marine Small Target Tracker that is apparently capable of positively identifying vessels carrying class ‘A’ and ‘B’ AIS transponders.
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Now despite the CSN plugging into the NAIS and various VTMS sites at ports along the Indian coastline there are concerns that it would be able to track, monitor and identify only boats above a certain size. After all, more than 2,00,000 small fishing boats operate from our coasts and several of these do not carry any transponders at all that would have otherwise plugged them in with the NAIS, CSN or VTMS. Indeed, it was just such a boat (typically less than 20 metres in length) that was used by the Mumbai attackers to penetrate Indian coastal defences. So even if detected, identification of friend from foe becomes a major issue for coastal security agencies when tracking very small vessels devoid of transponders. It seems that at the moment, the ICG and DGLL are testing at least three different technologies for tagging and monitoring small fishing boats. One of these technologies could involve the widespread use of radio frequency identification devices. Now, even as the question of small boats is being sorted out, it is, perhaps, high time the Indian security set-up started thinking beyond simply “trackable but difficult to monitor and identify” targets to ones that are extremely difficult to detect itself. The erstwhile Liberation of Tamil Tigers Elam (LTTE) actually was pretty proficient in the construction of such vessels and it is believed that some of its “boat builders” may have been hired by South American drug cartels to help design and build such vessels. It would,
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therefore, not be a stretch to suggest that this expertise could even flow to various perfidious actors in Pakistan, given that it is known that terrorist organisations in South Asia do collaborate in unexpected ways. These vessels, therefore, represent a very complex asymmetric challenge for the defenders. They are made using easily available material in workshops often in remote and forested locations. Yet, they are a very clever innovation that increases the costs of defending disproportionately. It is high time that all concerned stakeholders started brainstorming on ways to defeat such threats before they manifested themselves. Besides refashioning deployment procedures perhaps using new modelling methods, attention will have to be given to garnering enough intelligence about networks that might be involved in the construction of such vessels, in order to neutralise the supply chain and expertise as it were. Indeed, regardless of the major technology augmentation that the ICG’s CSN represents, at the end of the day, given the sheer numbers of vessels that need to be tracked and the length of our coastline the role of intelligence cannot be highlighted enough. An extension of this would suggest that cultivating fishermen via outreach programmes and making them an integral part of the CSN is imperative as is the need for multiple agencies to bury petty differences and share information in an actionable manner. Ultimately the real ‘soft upgrades’ in the security domain lie in getting the social network right as it were. October 2012
The Navy’s Design Organisation, together with DRDO Laboratories, has created the capability today in the country for design and construction of state-of-the-art stealth warships without any foreign assistance. MK BADHWAR analyses how unlike its sister services the Indian Navy has undergone a transition from being a buyer’s navy to becoming a builder’s navy
g GEOPOLITICS
COVERSTORY KLUB/BRAHMOS CRUISE MISSILES
HELO HANGAR
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THE ART
OF DECEPTION RBU-6000 ANTI SUB ROCKETS
OTO MELERA 76MM MAIN GUN
VIJAY KUMAR PFR
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dvancement in weapon and sensor technology, together with network-centric operations, has led to a paradigm shift in war strategies and tactics from those of yesteryears. The spectrum of naval warfare has become wider than ever before, ranging from low-intensity maritime operations to full-scale naval battles. Besides, increased proliferation of weapon systems and technologies is also posing an unprecedented challenge to the navies in defending their coastlines, exclusive economic zones, maritime assets and sea lines of communication. Certainly, no navy can afford to jeopardise its frontline surface and sub-surface combatants against these increased modern-day maritime threats. The detection of the adversary before the detection of one’s own platform enables ‘first-strike’ capability and better preparedness to withstand damage, which can significantly enhance the outcome of any engagement with the enemy. A ship’s ‘stealthiness’ not only reduces the detectability of the platform, but also improves performance of its own sensors. Stealth — or the ‘art of deception’— has thus become an imperative consideration for the design of surface combatants for any blue water navy. In spite of shrinking defence budgets, the navies of developed nations are engaged in an extensive research and development in the area of stealth technology to meet the growing threats at sea.
PLATFORM STEALTH MANAGEMENT
Any platform at sea is vulnerable to detection as it displays unique characteristics, or ‘signatures’, which can be detected by an adversary’s air, surface and sub-surface sensors or by visual means. These unique characteristics are electromagnetic reflections/emissions from ship’s exposed metallic surfaces, weapons, sensors and deck fittings as picked up by radars and thus termed radar cross section (RCS), underwaterradiated noise due to operation of ship’s machinery and propellers, infra-red emissions from hot exhaust gases from their funnels and hot metal surfaces, magnetic signatures due to the interaction of earth’s magnetic field with the ferro-magnetic materials used in the
INSPECTING THE INVENTORY: Defence Minister AK Antony aboard INS Shivalik, during the Naval Exercise TROPEX-2012, in which IAF aircraft also took part, off Vishakhapatnam on February 7, 2012
warships, the ship’s wake, extremely low frequency electromagnetic emissions (ELFE) due to rotation of shafts and cathodic currents, and so on. Minimisation of these characteristics or signatures to the levels of the surrounding environment, in which the warships operate, thus, forms the basis of stealth design of warships. It is also important that suppression of various ship signatures is holistically addressed for meaningful realisation of a stealth ship, because, overdoing signature reduction may be counter-productive as the gain may be more than offset by the adverse impact on ship’s design and cost of construction. Hence, there is always a judicious ‘trade-off ’ between the desired levels of various ship signatures vis-à-vis operational and other ship design requirements.
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MANAGEMENT OF SHIP SIGNATURES — A THROUGH LIFE PROCESS
Signature Management is not limited to a warship’s design and construction process alone but must stretch through the entire life cycle of the ship. The process commences with specification of target levels for different signatures in Naval Staff Qualitative Requirements for the ship. During the early design stage, prediction of ship signatures is made using high-end software tools, which help the designer evaluate the impact of various measures on one or other types of ship signatures. This impact is carefully evaluated and analysed to determine the optimal and realisable signature levels. The process continues till the culmination October 2012
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of preliminary or functional design stage, when the Statement of Technical Requirements (SOTRs) for various machinery and equipment are finalised, which also lay down the target signature levels envisaged for various equipment, because ultimately overall signatures of the warship are strongly influenced by signatures of individual equipment and the ship’s hull. These target signature levels are driven by aspirations of the naval staff but limited by technological capabilities of the maritime industry and practicality of warship design. Apart from aiming at these target signature levels for the equipment and ship’s hull, the warship designer may also recommend use of secondary or ‘add-on’ signature suppression measures, such as use of radar-absorbent paints, radar absorbent material, camouflage screens, infra-red paints, infrared signature suppression devices, viscoelastic materials for damping of machinery vibrations and so on to complement the primary design measures. However, due to their limited effectiveness, high www.geopolitics.in
cost and impact on ship displacement, such as ‘add-on’ measures are generally used for only specific local applications and only after the primary design stealth measures have been implemented. Prior to commencement of ship construction, it is extremely important and essential to draw up an exhaustive Stealth Quality Assurance Plan, clearly laying down norms and measures to be adopted during ship construction for ensuring that the resultant signature levels do not go beyond the estimated values. It is as much important for the shipbuilder to be stealth conscious as it is for the ship designer, otherwise the dream of a stealth warship would remain restricted to the drawing board only. Post-construction, ranging of ship signatures at the test range is the ultimate proof of the pudding. Comparison of measured signatures vis-à-vis target signature levels brings out a correlation between computer-generated predictions and measured values and serves as a useful feedback to the ship’s designer. While there exist weapons that can be
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triggered by each type of ship signature referred above, RCS, Underwater Radiated Noise and Infra-Red (IR) signatures need significantly more attention in the present-day context because of the type of weapons and sensors deployed today. Radar Signature Management: Modern-day sea-skimming missile-seekers fly at supersonic speed and can detect targets at long ranges. This leaves little or no reaction time for potential targets to either evade attack or launch countermeasures. This poses a great challenge before a ship’s designer, as he has to ensure low detectability of the platform despite it carrying powerful radars required for detection of enemy platforms. Initial reduction of a ship’s RCS is achieved by judicious shaping of external surfaces of the superstructure, concealment of exposed deck fittings and equipment, installation of stealth version of weapons and sensors, ensuring ‘uncluttered’ weather decks. The process itself is highly iterative as any ‘overdoing’ will adversely impact other design and operational aspects of the ship. Highend software tools are available today, which can predict radar ‘hot spots’ on the ship, which can then be eliminated or at least minimised. Acoustic Signature Management: With accelerated development of air-independent propulsion systems by the more advanced countries, the 21st century will certainly witness a marked development in design of more stealthy underwater platforms with increasing lethal capabilities. Therefore, surface combatants have to be more silent in order to have a cutting edge over a potential adversary. Warships at sea are uniquely identifiable by the noise they radiate underwater. Radiated noise signatures assume greater significance, because high underwater (UW) radiated noise of a ship not only lends itself to early detection and target ‘lock-on’, but it also severely degrades performance of its own sonar and reduces effectiveness of acoustic decoys. Ship’s operating machinery and propellers, being the primary sources of ship’s UW noise, therefore, need to be carefully selected and so installed in the ship as to facilitate effective noise mitigation. After minimisation of radiated noise from the machinery and using low frequency noise and vibration mounts, attention is shifted to damping treatment of machinery foundations using viscoelastic materials. Attention is also now October 2012
NAVY.MIL
UNIQUE POTENTIAL: The INS Satpura in action in the Indian Ocean Exercise Malabar 2012 with the US Navy
being paid to reduce excitation of ship structure due to flow of fluids in different piping systems. At high ship speeds, sound from the ship’s propellers becomes a significant source of UW-radiated noise. Therefore, low-noise propulsors with delayed-cavitation inception are gaining importance to mitigate the contribution of propeller noise. IR Signature Management: Hot exhaust gases from the ship’s machinery and hot exposed surfaces of the ship due to solar heating, are significant sources of IR radiation. IR signatures of a ship can be picked up by either ship-borne or airborne thermal sensors/cameras or by IRhoming missiles. Generally, reduction of plume temperature draws more attention, but it is equally important to address reduction of temperature of hot metal surfaces of the uptakes. This is best achieved by use of Infra Red Signature Suppression (IRSS) devices in the uptakes of prime-movers (gas turbines or diesel engines). Other methods of reducing IR signature include seawater injection in the engine exhaust/uptakes (reduces only plume temperature), seawater spraying on superstructure surfaces, mast and funnel (reduces IR radiation due to solar heating), creation of seawater mist, etc.
CHALLENGES IN SHIP SIGNATURE MANAGEMENT There is constant pressure on warship designers to design more sleek and stealthy www.geopolitics.in
ships, with as low RCS, underwaterradiated noise and IR signatures as possible. Although, this is also the warship designer’s dream, he is often constrained by various factors, suh as:(a) Many weapons, sensors and other deck equipment and fittings are still not freely available in stealth versions. (b) Desire for redundancy in military platforms necessitates installation of multiple radars and radars are the mostreflective equipment on board. Singlemast configuration with multi-function radars still remains limited to academic discussions. (c) Achievement of inherently low-noise and vibration levels in the ship equipment also depends a great deal on how developed the industrial infrastructure in the country is. The Indian maritime support industry, which is still in its infancy and to a large extent dependent on technological support from developed nations, is often not able to meet the aspirations of the warship designers. The equipment vendors often find it difficult to demonstrate noise and vibration levels even which were willingly committed by them. (d) Due to lack of awareness and adequate control during construction phase of the ship, some noise shortcircuiting can occur between the vibrating machinery and the ship structure or flat structural surfaces get deformed all of which lead to ‘undoing’ of signature reduction measures envisaged at the design stage. (e) It is difficult to ensure that all ship-
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building activity, which can influence the overall ship signatures, is only undertaken by workers, who are adequately knowledgeable in this subject or at least aware of the implications of their casual approach. A large part of shipbuilding work is undertaken by sub-contractors, who are not very careful, while recruiting their workmen.
INDIAN NAVY’S STEALTH DESIGN CAPABILITY India is one of the few nations in the world, which can design and build its own warships. Credit for this goes to the visionary leadership of the Indian Navy since Independence, which has nurtured its in-house design capability. It is this capability and participation of the users in the process of warship design and construction that has been the primary drivers for the transition of the Indian Navy from a buyer’s Navy to becoming a Builder’s Navy in contrast to the other two sister services. Since the 1960s, when the Navy’s Design Directorate was set up, it has consistently enhanced its technical capabilities and confidence in taking on newer and newer challenges. Starting with the design of patrol crafts and tugs, going through the landing crafts, survey ships and landing ship tanks and through corvettes, frigates and destroyers, the Directorate is currently engaged in the design of a new benchmark warship an aircraft carrier, which not only many developed countries have attempted but also is another state-of-the-art frigate project. October 2012
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During this journey, in the early 1990s, when the French Navy’s Lafayette-class ships were being built, “stealth” was becoming the buzzword in the global navies and our Design Directorate was also tasked to design a new contemporary series of ships, which were comparable with the best in the world and were also as stealthy as possible. A small design team was formed in house and tasked to learn through self-study all that was possible and available in the open media on stealth in the context of warships and apply this knowledge to the next warship design project for the Navy. Available information on contemporary designs of the day like Type 23 frigates of the UK, F123 frigates of Germany, NFR project of NATO, Israeli missile corvettes Sa’ar 5, older SNF-class destroyers of Indian Navy, as well as the French Lafayette-class frigates were studied, based on which necessary guidelines were evolved. A new design, which was initially called GTF (Gas Turbine Frigate), then Frigate 2000 and finally P-17 (Shivalik class) frigates, was taken up as the first platform for systematic implementation of stealth features in indigenous warship designs. To ensure that all the above issues are addressed in a time-bound manner in sync with the P-17 schedule and that adequate in-house expertise gets developed
to undertake further design studies, help was taken from few expert global consultants in the field — M/s IABG, Germany for the RCS management, M/s IR Davis, Canada for IR management Defence Evaluation and Research Agency (DERA), the UK for management of acoustic signatures by way of few specialised studies, where the stealth group of the Design Directorate was actively associated. Some of the latest specialised software RAMSES, NTCS and Auto SEA-I for study of different signatures were also procured and their usage learnt. Today, this specialised group is as capable as any of its counterparts in the design houses of advanced maritime nations, if not more, in imparting stealth features to our warships being designed by the Navy’s Design Organisation to entire satisfaction of the users.
STEALTH FEATURES IN PRESENT-DAY WARSHIPS
All present-day new design warships, such as Shivalik class frigates, Kolkataclass destroyers, Kamorta-class ASW corvettes and the now under design P-17A ships of the IN and can all be effectively called stealth ships. All these designs are comparable with the best in the world,
which is no mean achievement for the Navy’s Design Organisation, particularly considering that the warship equipment industry in the country is technologically still far behind its counterparts in the developed world and even today it has to depend to a large extent on technology that is available from them. Notwithstanding this, the stealth group of the Navy’s Design Organisation, together with Naval Scientific and Technological Laboratory (NSTL), has successfully managed to overcome many of these constraints by actively associating itself in the process of manufacture, assembly and trials of these equipment, educating and guiding the manufacturers. RCS: Very low RCS has been achieved in these series of warships through use of inclined flanks, as few vertical lines as possible, and very clean lines and superstructure. Stairs and external deck mounted equipment have been minimised and large openings in the structure have been covered by clear surfaces. Adequate care has been taken to ensure that all exposed surfaces of the superstructure are sloped by at least 7 to 10 degrees from the vertical. Wherever feasible, this slope from the vertical has been made even higher to additionally ensure minimum EM return even during ship’s rolling and pitching motions.
SLOPED EXPOSED SURFACES TO REDUCE RCS SLOPED-SHIP SIDE
TRADITIONAL SHIP
STEALTH SHIP
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NAVY.MIL
VIJAY KUMAR PFR
VERTICAL-SHIP SIDE
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October 2012
g COVERSTORY Sloping of the exposed surfaces, however, reduces available internal volume and deck area of compartments. Therefore, in ASW Corvette, an ‘X’-shaped superstructure has been adopted. Sloped-exposed surfaces of ‘X’ cross section not only ensures low EM return (and hence low RCS) but also affords greater flexibility in compartment layouts due to increased deck space and volume. The RCS of bare hulls of these ships is only a small fraction of the bare hull RCS, let us say of P 16A frigates and may compare favourably with that of a small boat. Efforts have also been made to further reduce RCS of all these platforms, through use of under-deck vertical launch weapons, use of non-rotating multifunction phased-array radars and low RCS/Radar Transparent deck fittings to the extent it was feasible. Special care has been taken to avoid
dihedral and trihedral corners, which cause multiple radar scattering. On Shivalik class, the boat deck has been concealed behind radar suppression screens. The helo hangars on all ships now have sloped shutters and sides. The gun turrets in the fox’le also have stealth canopies to ensure reduced RCS. Acoustic Signatures: Using sophisticated software, Navy’s Design Directorate undertook analysis of all noise critical machinery and systems for each design at the initial design stage itself, wherein various configurations of mounting arrangements, such as single or two-stage mountings, acoustic enclosures for ship’s main prime-movers, electric power-generation machinery as well as other auxiliary machineries were iterated to assess their individual contribution to the overall underwater radiated noise of the ship and ranked accord-
ingly for subsequent treatment. For all these designs, based on the target noise levels set for the platform, the target noise and vibration levels were iteratively drawn up for all noise critical machineries and their compliance ascertained during the factory trials. Care has also been taken while designing foundations for equipment to ensure adequate ‘impedance mismatch’ for ensuring effectiveness of the mounting arrangement. In case of the Kamorta-class ASW corvettes, the propulsion prime movers and the gearboxes have been mounted on an integral elastic raft, to reduce the noise signatures of these two most noise critical machineries on these ships. Besides, in order to enhance performance, sonars on board Kamorta-class ASW corvettes and the Kolkata-class destroyers have been accommodated in
INDIA’S SILENT HUNTERS
NAVY.MIL
With a slew of new vessels being inducted, the Indian Navy is on a comprehensive modernisation drive. The most visible examples of this transformation are the new classes of stealth ships, some of which are being built in Indian shipyards along with imports from Russia Shivalik-Class (Project 17) Stealth Frigates Conceived by the Indian Navy’s own design directorate, the Shivalik-class frigates are designed to be the mainstay frigates over the first half of the 21st
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century. A number of Indian firms were involved in the making of this class of ships and cost-wise, 60 per cent of the components are indigenous. Constructed by Mazagon Docks Limited in Mumbai, every external surface of
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the ship is “slanted” to deflect radar signals, making them the first stealth ships to be created in India. A ship-wide integrated data network and the onboard combat management system form the heart of the frigate. The Fire Control Systems (FCS) of the ships was developed by Defence Research Development Organisation (DRDO) and built by Bharat Electrical Limited (BEL). The INS Shivalik was the first Indian ship to use a combined diesel or gas (CODOG) propulsion system and the specialised gearboxes were designed and built by Elecon Engineering. The shipboard furnishings were manufactured in India by the marine division of Godrej. In addition to both air defence and antisubmarine warfare capabilities, the ships are fitted with a mix of Indian, Russian and Western weapons systems. These next-generation warships are designed to carry two advanced helicopters. INS Shivalik, launched on April 19, 2003, and commissioned on April 29, 2010, was the first ship of the class. Based at Visakhapatnam naval base, the ship joined the Eastern Fleet on March 15, 2011. The INS Satpura is the second ship of the class and was commissioned on August 20, 2011. The third of the Project
October 2012
g COVERSTORY the specially-designed bulbous bows. Similar arrangements are also envisaged for the P 17A ships. IR Signatures: P-17 ships are first series of IN ships to be formally designed with measures for reduction of IR signatures incorporated. The IR signature reduction is achieved by using Eductor Diffuser IR suppression devices for the gas turbine and the diesel engines. Besides exhaust gas cooling, hot metal cooling is also implemented to afford good look-down protection from hostile IR sensors. The engine room ventilation with sea water coolers and acoustic enclosures for DAs help in reducing hull contrast temperatures. Magnetic Signatures: Steel used for warship construction is a ferro-magnetic substance, which causes formation of variable magnetic field around the warship as it moves through the water. This
magnetic field can easily trigger a mine in the vicinity. Therefore, all the above classes of ships have an advanced Degaussing System installed on board, which is capable of dynamic monitoring and neutralising the magnetic field around the ship due to the earth’s magnetic field on the real-time basis.
P 17A FRIGATES After the confidence gained in design and construction of three Shivalik class stealth frigates, Indian Navy is now planning to order seven more ships of P-17A to be built to a modified P-7 design, which will incorporate the experience gained in designing the Project 17 Shivalik-class frigates as well as other measures implemented on P-28 and P-15A ships. The P-17A frigates will be an improved version of P-17 in terms of
stealth. They will possibly have covered mooring deck and reduced number of antennae to further reduce the ship’s RCS. Likewise, the P-17A ships will also feature a bow-mounted LF sonar resulting in a far superior sonar performance. The weapon platform in the P-17A ships will be compact and they will be armed with an advanced surface-to-air vertical launch missile system being developed jointly by India and Israel, as well as Brahmos vertical launch cruise missile system being developed in the country together with Russia. These weapon systems will be flush-deck mounted that will facilitate low RCS. Naval Scientific Technological Laboratories (NSTL), Visakhapatnam, along with other two Naval R&D Labs, namely NPOL and NMRL, has also been working closely with the Navy’s Design
Project 17 A As a follow-on to the Project 17 Shivalikclass frigates, the Defence Acquisition Council (DAC) cleared a project to build seven more stealth frigates in June 2009. Of a total of seven ships, four will be constructed by Mazgaon Dock Ltd in Mumbai and three by Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers in Kolkata. These ships integrate the latest indigenous developed stealth features. In order to cut down on build times and improve productivity, the ships will utilise the modular construction method. In order to improve upon the Shivalik-Class ships in terms of stealth, the Project 17A class ship will feature a covered mooring deck along with-multi-functional radar. Vertical launch of missiles from under the deck will be possible as the weapon systems will be flush-deck mounted. The launchers for the torpedos will be blended along the sides of the vessel and in addition, the ship will also feature a concealed hangar for a Kamov helicopter. Navy’s Talwar-Class Missile Frigates India’s Russian-built Talwar class of stealth frigates are primarily projected to stalk and destroy large surface ships and submarines. Powered by four 800Kw
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VIJAY KUMAR PFR
17 ships, the INS Sahyadri, was commissioned on July 21, 2012.
PROUD WARSHIP: INS Talwar is the lead ship of its class with the Indian Navy
WCM800/5-type diesel generators, these stealth frigates are armed with verticallylaunched BrahMos missiles. The Indian Navy currently operates three Talwar (Russian modified Krivak III)-class stealth frigates. Commissioned in 2003, the INS Talwar was the lead ship of the class followed by INS Trishul and INS Tabar. The ships’ anti-submarine sensor (sonar) suite and total communication equipment is of Indian origin and manufacture. Three more ships — INS Teg, INS Tarkash, and INS Trikand — are on order from Russia and identical to the previous lot except that they are stealthier. The Talwar-class ships have displacement of 4,000 tonnes with a maximum speed of 30 knots and a
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range of approximately 5000 nautical miles. In addition to the missile launchers, these ships have Shtil surface-to-air (SAM) systems, Kashtan air defence systems and torpedo tubes. For anti-submarine warfare, the ships are equipped with the RPK-8 system, which consists of a two-barreled RBU-6000 ASW rocket launcher that fires the 212mm 90R antisubmarine rocket or RGB-60 depth charges. Helicopters like the Ka-28 HelixA anti-submarine helicopter or Ka-31 Helix-B airborne early warning helicopter, or the navalised version of the Dhruv can be deployed on these ships. (Geopolitics Bureau)
October 2012
g COVERSTORY
SHIVALIK-CLASS P 17 FRIGATES
NAVY.MIL
AN ARTIST’S IMPRESSION OF P 17A FRIGATES
THE SHAPE OF THINGS TO COME: The future P-17A (bottom) will feature bow-mounted LF sonar and covered mooring deck compared to the present P-17 like the INS Satpura (top)
Organisation, undertaking experimental studies in various warship stealth aspects and developing techniques and materials, which can further enhance stealth features in our warships. It is very likely that as a result of these collaborative efforts, P-17A ships will be qualitatively far superior to even P-17 ships, so far as stealth features are concerned and something in what the country can take pride, it will be largely with indigenous efforts, enabling us to keep magnitudes of various ship signatures classified. These ships are also expected to be built using integrated construction methodology, which will enable cutting down on build periods and improved productivity through the use of modular integrated construction. www.geopolitics.in
With accelerated technological developments, three-dimensional threats from lethal air, surface and subsurface weapons are only bound to increase in the near future. Surface combatants, therefore, need to be ‘as stealthy as possible’. However, there has to be a judicious ‘trade-off’ between the desired stealth features vis-à-vis operational and other ship design requirements with due consideration to acquisition costs and levels of technological capabilities of our industry. Ship signature management already forms an integral part of the warship design and construction process in the country, which is initiated at the formative stage of warship design in the Navy’s Design Organisation and pursued
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through the entire construction process. Capability today exists in the country for design and construction of state of the art stealth warships without any foreign assistance. Navy’s Design Organisation, together with DRDO Labs, has made this possible. However, close monitoring and preservation of the achieved stealth features are equally important during the ship’s operational life. (A retired Rear Admiral, the author was Director General, Naval Design, Surface Ship Group, at Integrated Headquarters, Ministry of Defence (Navy) and is presently, the Chief Operations Officer (Strategic Business) at Pipavav Defence and Offshore Engineering Company) October 2012
geopolitics
INTERNAL SECURITY BANG ON TARGET CRPF
Security forces are eliminating ring leaders of insurgencies
IS
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B R I E F S
INTERNAL SECURITY
recently to life GAWLI’S CRIME ÂSentenced imprisonment in the murder case of former corporator SYNDICATE Kamlakar Jamsandekar, mobster Arun Gawli has been LAID BARE identified as the kingpin of a
New tactics against cyber threats, IM
GEETAAJAYGAWLI.COM
sprawling crime syndicate by the Special Maharashtra Control of Organised Crime Act (MCOCA) Court. Also known by his underworld alias ‘Daddy,’ Gawli has a string of cases pending against him although the murder of the corporator is his first conviction. Since the court did not consider the murder case as the rarest of the rare, the death sentence, which was pressed for by the prosecution, was not awarded. Gawli was an MLA, when the victim Jamsandekar was murdered in 2007. He was given life imprisonment along with ten others.
Âhijack of the Indian Airlines IC-814 to One of the terrorists involved in the
Kandahar in December 1999 was arrested by the Jammu and Kashmir police from Kishtwar district. He is believed to have arranged logistics — including weapons and fake travel documents — for the hijackers. The arrested terrorist, Mehrajuddin Wani alias Javed Dand — an active member of Harkat-ul-Ansar — has disclosed that a diplomat of an unspecified embassy (in Nepal) was closely involved in the hijacking plot. Further, intelligence sources are
positive that the man will be able to throw light on how the hijacking was carried out and who the other terrorists were. During interrogation, he confessed about his association with Salahuddin, Anees Ibrahim and Dawood Ibrahim, who figure in the list of 20 most wanted people India has given to Pakistan. A young Indian traveller, Rupen Katyal, lost his life during the hijack drama. Three terrorists – Maulana Masood Azhar, Mustaq Ahmed Zargar and Omar Saeed Sheikh — had to be released in exchange of the hostages.
NIA TO PROBE JHARKHAND CASE
KASAB COUNSELS DECLINE FEE Âdefending Ajmal Kasab, who has Declining remuneration for
been given death penalty for the 2009 Mumbai terror attacks, his Supreme Court-appointed lawyers have asked that the money be donated to some needy litigant. The apex court had directed the Maharashtra government to pay `11 lakh to amicus curie Raju Ramachandran and `3.5 lakh to his junior Gaurav Agrawal as a token of their assistance to the court. However, the two politely refused to accept the money in a recently-filed application and stated that they were serving the institution of justice itself.
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WIKIPEDIA
KANDAHAR HIJACKER ARRESTED
Â(NIA) is all set to take up the recent The National Investigation Agency
case of recovery of US-made Colt and Hart-manufactured M-16 rifle, Italian pistol and UK-manufactured bullet-proof jacket by the Jharkhand police from alleged arms supplier Prafulla Malakar and CPI (Maoist) zonal commander, Anil Yadav. Both the men are under arrest. Taking into the account the implications of the case at various levels, the Union ministry has officially handed over the case to NIA, which has been investigating CPI (Maoist) arms manufacturing infrastructure and its links with Manipur’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Furthermore, it has arrested several members of both the groups in this connection. Both the cases would be clubbed together and handed over to NIA and the MHA is in touch with both state governments for the purpose.
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October 2012
g Âcyber pepetraors made use of the internet to cause mayhem, security experts briefed participants at the 47th annual In a bid to thwart any re-run of the Assam riots where
Conference of DGPs and IGPs about the shifting circumstances in cyberspace and how terror organisations and antinational elements were using it to target the country. Methods used by the perpetrators discussed at the conference included hacking crucial government websites and misusing social media on the internet and mobile communication tools to create social and communal tensions. The conference also discussed home-grown terror movements like the Indian Mujahideen (IM) which consists mostly of Indian members. The group has regrouped and created new modules and modus operandi, baffling the intelligence agencies about its new strategies. The Intelligence Bureau (IB) reportedly got information that the IM was launching a fresh recruitment drive in states such as Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, UP, and Bihar. As it is being used by terror outfits such as Lashkar-e-Tayyaba and others to plan attacks across India the IM network has turned into a major threat. The conference also discussed left-wing extremism, the situation in Jammu and Kashmir and the North East and the preparedness of Indian intelligence agencies.
B R I E F S IS
INTERNAL SECURITY
ASSAM DEPORTED ONLY 134 ILLEGALS Âgrants seem to be having a Illegal Bangladeshi immi-
free run in Assam. The border state has deported only 134 illegal immigrants to Bangladesh in the past two years, even though the Tribunals, tasked with detecting the foreigners, had found as many as 5,652 offenders between 2010 and 2012. The Assam government recently informed the Union Home Ministry that 36 existing Tribunals had been declared 4,787 “illegal immigrants” who had come to the state on or after March 25, 1971. The disclosure of dismal record of deportation from Assam was made at the time when over three lakh cases
of suspected illegal Bangladeshi immigrants were pending at the Tribunals in the state. The gap between the number of people who were deported and those who were identified as illegal immigrants may just be a tip of the iceberg if one looks at the figure of those Bangladeshis who visited India “legally” but went missing after expiry of their travel documents.
INDIA STILL VULNERABLE TO TERROR STRIKES Âdiplomat’s vehicle in February Citing the attack on an Israeli
PIB
this year, Nehchal Sandhu, Chief of the Intelligence Bureau, has said India is vulnerable to the global nature of terrorist strikes. Talking about the terrorist strike at the diplomat’s car, Sandhu said that, it signified that India was becoming a hub for global terrorists seeking to target foreigners in the country. “This incident brings to the fore the need to be sensitive to the trends developing in the
sphere of international terrorism and an effective international cooperation is needed to prevent such attacks on Indian soil,” Sandhu said. The IB chief also added that discovery of Lashkar and HuJI terror cells in Karnataka and consequent inquiry in the case made the vulnerability of the Indian youth to the radical elements clear and urged the top police officers of the country to focus on counter-radicalisation and de-radicalisation policy.
CEO HELD FOR ‘MAOIST LINK’
SC REFUSES TO STAY FUEL LOADING AT KUDANKULAM N-PLANT
Âthe CEO of a Hyderabad-
Â-loading process in one of the two reactors of Kudankulam
Nine employees, including
based private construction company, have been remanded to judicial custody on charges of treason after being arrested for allegedly supplying explosives to Maoists. The materials included electronic gadgets, detonators, gelatine sticks, IEDs, user manuals besides Maoist literature and mobile phones. The seized materials have the potential to prepare at least 1000 landmines and other such high explosives.
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A Supreme Court bench has declined to put on hold the fuel
Nuclear Power Plant (KNPP) in Tamil Nadu, set to be operational in two months. However, the apex court firmly told the government that it would scrutinise safety issues afresh to assure itself that the plant posed no danger to people living around it. The bench asked the Centre whether it had implemented at Kudankulam plant its own taskforce’s 17 safety recommendations formulated to plug safety shortcomings that possibly caused the Fukushima disaster in Japan. The Centre sent out a powerful defence and claimed that 11 of the 17 recommendations were in the nature of ‘abundant caution’ and their non-implementation was not going to affect plant safety. The bench maintained that it was not going to make light of any safety issues.
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SURVEILLANCE OF
FOREIGN FUNDS
The Union Home Ministry has just pulled the plug on funding to non-governmental organisations (NGOs) by further tightening the Foreign Contribution Regulation Act. While the government is entitled to take measures towards transparency in receiving the foreign funds and accountability of their use, one hopes the exercise does not turn out to be political witch hunt, writes AJAY K MEHRA
T
WO RECENT developments have brought the focus back on the contentious Foreign Contribution Regulation Act (FCRA), enacted in 1976, ‘strengthened’ in 1984 and reenacted in 2010. First, the agitation against the Kudankulam nuclear power plant in Tamil Nadu raised suspicion in government circles that it was being backed by some foreign Non-Governmental Organisations (NGO); the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) said this in so many words. The Union Government froze accounts of six ‘foreign funded’ organisations. Naturally, the impact is not only on the way the government is looking at and dealing with the agitation, but also on the way its suspicious gaze is turning towards www.geopolitics.in
other NGOs receiving foreign money. Secondly, the government recently cancelled FCRA registration of 4,139 institutions, including eight educational institution, viz Jawaharlal Nehru University, IIT-Kanpur and Jamia Millia Islamia University, preventing them from accepting developmental, research and academic funding from institutions such as the Ford Foundation, the Department for International Development(DFID), the Rockefeller Foundation and such others. Surprisingly, these universities and academic institutions receive public funding and their account is audited by the CAG. One significant cancellation of registration is of PRS Legislative Research based at country’s premium think tank Centre for Policy
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Research (CPR). Inspired by US Congressional Research Service, it has been engaged in analysing the parliamentary and legislative issues in the country. It also provides interns, with access to the Parliament Library, to some leading parliamentarians. It is primarily funded by the Ford Foundation. The MHA clearly sees breach of parliamentary and governmental security in this as this is funded by foreign money. Obviously, the PRS gets its funding through its own FCRA registration, not through the CPR, where it is based. Obviously, these developments renew a debate that had raged in the 1990s, when an alliance of voluntary sector organisations (referred to as NGOs) carried out a systematic campaign with the government October 2012
g INTERNALSECURITY to remove this Act and create a more transparent system of financial and other accountability for facilitating an enabling environment for them and the developmental activities they were engaged in. Their campaign was inspired also by liberalisation of the Indian economy. The then Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao’s personal effort to enlarge cooperation with NGOs for developmental activities also enthused them to seek recognition in national economic development at par with the business. In fact, opposing FCRA in principle, but supporting the accountability regime, prominent voluntary organisations and their institutional support coalition proposed that a clause in the Foreign Exchange Management Act, that governs the corporate world, could make it compulsory for the donors to report such funding to the Ministry of Finance and annual account submission for the concerned voluntary organisations. This, they argued, would keep financial accountability without bringing in security considerations. The government was in any case free to probe security dimension in the concerned cases. Since its inception during the national emergency (1975-77), the FCRA has been monitoring foreign funds coming to charitable religious organisations, some of which allegedly indulged in extremist and fundamentalist activities. The logic and rationale of the emergency had whipped up security threats emerging from the invisible ‘foreign hand’ out to destroy India. Naturally, the administration and enforcement of the Act, despite its scope being financial, was entrusted to the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA). It was ‘strengthened’ in 1985 and further amended in 2001 to regulate the flow of funds to charitable organisations based on the findings of the Kudal Commission, which was appointed in February 1982, after Indira Gandhi’s return to power in 1980, to probe the support given by non-profit and voluntary organisations to political movements (read the Jayprakash Narayan www.geopolitics.in
movement) such as the Gandhi Peace Foundation, the Association of Voluntary Agencies for Rural Development and 945 Gandhian Voluntary Associations(VA) that supported Jayprakash Narayan. Though the Commission was dissolved in 1986-87 on a sustained campaign by voluntary organisations and its recommendations such as National Council and State Councils for rural voluntary agencies were not taken up, the intensified regulatory regime remained despite a strong resentment. Hence: a) Funds received by subsequent recipients were brought within the purview of the Act. b)Definition of political parties was enlarged. c) Section 6(1) was amended to ensure that foreign funds were received only after registration, and only through designated bank accounts. d) Section 15A was inserted to empower the Central Government to inspect and audit books of accounts of organisations. e) Section 25A was inserted to ensure that acceptance of foreign funds was prohibited for three years after second conviction. The FCRA, 2010, applicable from May 1, 2011, continues to have VAs as the main focus. However, a major consideration now is to ensure that the foreign contribution is not utilised to affect or influence electoral politics, public servants, judges and other people working in the important areas of national life like journalists, printers and publishers of newspapers, etc. The FCRA is administered by the MHA. Under the Act, all the charitable trusts and societies, as well as any other registered s o c i e t y,
that intend to get foreign fund from any source, must register with the FCRA Division of the MHA. Any non-political organisation registered under Society/Trust Act, functioning for three years, is eligible to apply (ensuring that no political party uses foreign money for political activities). A myriad of the organisations functioning in various fields - religious, cultural, social, developmental, academic (schools, research bodies, hospitals, private universities, and so on) - across the country are registered under Society Registration Act, 1860 and amended in various states at different points of time. The FCRA Division takes its own time, normally three months, in determining eligibility of an applicant institution based on inquiries by local police, intelligence agencies or its own functionaries. Even if an application is rejected, an organisation is entitled to reapply. Organisations not having FCRA registration can apply for prior permission on case-tocase basis to receive foreign funding. The Act also incorporates provision to obviate the possibility of fund transfer: ‘no person…shall deliver such currency to any association or organisation other than the association for which it was received.’ The organisations registered under the FCRA are required to submit their audited account of foreign funds received at the end of a financial year. The FCRA is a security-centric financial regulatory regime, placed under the charge of the MHA, rather than under the Ministry of Finance. Its administration has faced complaints of corruption, inefficiency and harassment at the hand of the bureaucracy in the Division. Many organisations, m o s t l y NGOs,
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DIPLOMACY
VOLATILE CATALYST: The anti-nuclear agitation at the Kudankulam nuclear plant site was the main reason for the crackdown on NGOs for allegedly funding the protest
complain of deliberate and motivated delays to compel them to grease the hands of the officials (mostly at the junior levels) to push files. Post-registration complaints are few, but not absent and their nature varies from organisation to organisation and state to state. However, political considerations have guided the reactions of the MHA in many cases. As stated, the MHA relied on field reports from the government field agencies to grant registration, which introduces a non-transparent element in the process, since an applicant organisation does not have access to the reports and cannot challenge their veracity. Under shrouds of security-secrecy, deliberate or inadvertent biases creep in, creating stresses particularly for smaller well-intentioned initiatives. The secrecy is even greater in ‘sensitive areas’ of the country, naturally biases too predominate and lack of transparency also breeds corruption. The procedures involved in registration and administration of FCRA have turned out to be cumbersome for several organisations, particularly for smaller organisations which lack infrastructure and wherewithal to understand complex legality in the compliance of intricate rules and regulations. Those from far off and remote areas of the country consider it problematic also to make a visit to the FCRA Division in Delhi in case asked to report for clarifications. Networks and organisations such as Voluntary Action Network India, PRIA, NCAS, help smaller initiatives on legal matters and rules and regulations, but these support systems are inadequate given the complexities. Many a time, political witch hunting too is alleged, creating trust deficit and hardening of attitudes both sides. Since FCRA was designed with an www.geopolitics.in
objective to check subversive funds breeching the security of the country, the dimension deserves probing. According to MHA, voluntary organisations, charitable and religious institutions registered under the FCRA (total 43,451 in 2011) receive close to 5 billion foreign contributions from different sources. Thus the cancellation of registration of 4139 organisations (nearly 10 per cent) in one go is the largest ever. In 2005, nine organisations lost their registration for lapses in their audit report. So, this is the biggest crackdown in the three-and-a-half decade history of the Act. The break up is 749 in Tamil Nadu, 670 in Andhra Pradesh, 450 in Kerala, 352 in Maharashtra, 299 in Delhi, 296 in Karnataka, 160 in Odisha and 158 in Gujarat. The four southern states account for 2165 cancellations — more than half in the list. Clearly, the antinuclear agitation is among the main reasons for this drastic action by the government. In fact, the government had cracked down on four NGOs for allegedly funding the protest at the Kudankulam nuclear plant site and ordered a freeze on their bank accounts in March 2012. The other major reason for the scrutiny since the inception of this Act has been money transacted by religious organisations, purportedly for conversion. In 2005, 12,000 crores ‘officially’ come through the foreign route, of which 60 per cent came from religious organisations. According to the government, not all the organisations declare their foreign funding. The latest FCRA thus bans the use of foreign funds for religious conversions. The Union Government, as well as some state governments, have expressed concern over this phenomenon, particularly in the tribal areas and in the North East. However, the data that is available in public domain does not clearly bring out
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the security concerns arising out of foreign funding. Let us take the three theatres of conflict in the country: the North East, Punjab and Jammu and Kashmir. It has been alleged that foreign money has been used for conversion and subversive activities in the North East. However, an empirical analysis of how much impact ‘religious conversion’ carried out with the help of foreign money coming through legal channels under the FCRA registration has had on demographic change as well as on resulting conflict in the North East would convince the nation better. Similarly, the use of foreign money in stoking terrorism in Punjab is well-known. However, most of it came through hawala and other illegal channels; they did not care about the FCRA. The case of Jammu and Kashmir is no different. The presence of public educational institutions in the list under discussion raises questions on the efficiency, if not intentions, of the government agencies involved in the exercise. One of the organisations, for example, is Public Affairs Centre of Bengaluru, which has done some pioneering work on issues of public affairs, including an analysis of criminalisation of politics. Is it using the money on subversive activities, or has it committed any other breech of legal requirements? PRS Legislative Research is another significant institution, since many researchers in India and abroad use the data it collects and analyses. Is it misusing foreign funds to create a breech of security for the country, or is this just an unfounded fear of India’s bureaucratic and security establishment? If the Union Government becomes transparent about it, its own credibility in this surveillance of foreign money would increase in the public eye. At the same time, the voluntary sector must function within structures of accountability, which must also be transparent as a significant part of Indian social life. This sector, now referred to as “the Third Sector”, raises money through public and community contributions as well as large donations from national and international aid agencies. In the Indian case, international aid agencies and foreign money offered by them became significant due to lack of such indigenous trusts. Thus, the government is indeed entitled to take measures for their accountability and security of India. However, it has to be careful not to turn the exercise into a witch hunt. (The author is Honorary Director, Centre for Public Affairs, Noida ) October 2012
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KILL? Targeted Killing is being increasingly used as a tactic by governments the world over to combat counter-insurgencies. This tactic of killing rebel leaders is predictably alarming the Rights activists. Drawing international examples, UDDIPAN MUKHERJEE discusses the Indian scene
O
N JULY 5, 2012, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of India (Maoist) issued a seven-page pamphlet on the occasion of its ensuing Martyr’s Week observed from July 28, 2012, to August 3, 2012. The interesting feature of the document was the admission of the Central Committee that www.geopolitics.in
the recent elimination of their top-rung leaders has stung — and that too, quite venomously. An extract from the document reads: “Preventing losses to top leadership is one of the most important tasks faced by our party. It is true that people give birth to revolutionary leaders in the course of
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revolution. But it is equally true that once we lose such leaders, leaders who had gained decades of vast experience and have been guiding the party with unwavering confidence on the people and the revolution, it is not so easy to give birth to such leaders again. We must take the preservation of our leadership…” One thing the Maoist leadership failed October 2012
g INTERNALSECURITY to appreciate or rather nonchalantly ignored in the circular was the series of abductions which they carried out against bureaucrats, politicos and tradesmen in the last couple of years as a tactical means of furthering their agenda of dismantling the bourgeoisie political framework of India. In the process, they probably forgot the age-old adage of ‘tit for tat’. From history Some three decades back, sometime in the mid-1970s, Brigate Rosse — a communist insurgent group, relying on its core principles of kidnapping and assassinations — rose into prominence in Italy. David Johnson, a former senior lecturer in the department of War Studies and International Affairs at the Royal Military Academy, Sandhurst, writes cogently about the Italian left-wing ultras: They indulged in kidnapping of magistrates and assassination of important legal figures to try to force the release of prisoners. Initially, the then Italian government was a tad phlegmatic in its counterterrorism moves. However, the high-profile abduction of Aldo Moro, an ex Prime Minister of Italy, shook the authorities up from slumber. Moro had a driver and a bodyguard in his car, followed by another car with two more bodyguards — a near dramatisation of the recent kidnapping of the District Magistrate of Sukma in India’s central state of Chhattisgarh. Nevertheless, the Italian Reds were smart enough to overpower the bodyguards and their demand was simple: the release of their top leader Renato Curcio. The Chhattisgarh government too, was served with a similar ultimatum in the case of Alex Paul Menon, the executive magistrate in contention. A month later — the communists declared that Moro had to be condemned to death — as that was the decision delivered by a People’s Court. Was it the unyielding position of the Italian government that paved the way for the brutal death of Moro? Or, was it the inherent insanity of the terrorists? In whichever way the answer goes — as it is surely to depend on perspectives — one thing remains factually correct; the Red Brigades lost their mass appeal through this wanton act of terror and it became easy for the Italian government to demolish it in relatively little time. The casualty in the process, nonetheless, was Moro. It is not only for academic interest that another page from the history of guerrilla warfare may be extracted. On October 13, www.geopolitics.in
DECAPITATION STRIKE Countries that have used targeted killing as a tool Italy Germany Israel USA Russia
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Red Army Faction Baader Meinhohh Palestinian Intefadah al Qaeda Chechen Guerrillas
1977, a Lufthansa Boeing 737 was hijacked to Mogadishu, Somalia. The act was carried out by the activists of the Baader-Meinhof gang. This time too, the demands were naturally obvious: the release of the captives of the gang in lieu of the hapless passengers. The West German government did not kowtow to the demands of the gang. Rather, it sent the efficient anti-terrorist squad GSG9 to storm the hijacked aircraft. The results were an emphatic win for the government — all the terrorists were obliterated with no casualties on the civilian side. What precipitated thereafter was the rapid decay of the Baader-Meinhof gang, with its leaders being eliminated in a surgical fashion by the West German authorities. The hallmark of the counter-terrorist strategies of both Italy and then West Germany was simply put, boldness. And it paid — not always without a loss — but nevertheless mostly with an overall gain. If one compounds such a firm attitude of counter-insurgency with the targeted approach adopted by many states later on down the time-lane, it discernibly bottles the ingredients of ‘rule of law’ and ‘the moralhumanitarian angle’; on the debit side — with ‘effective counterinsurgency measures by the state’ for the ‘overall benefit of the populace at large’; on the credit side. In November 2000, Israel was the first state to overtly proclaim that it operated a policy of targeted killings in its confrontation with Palestinian militants, informs Nils Melzer in his analytical doctoral dissertation. It was in the midst of the Second Intifada that the Israeli authorities started to bulldoze the Palestinian separatists with their targeted killing methodology. Since September 11, 2001, however, the United States has consistently conducted targeted killing operations against Al Qaeda and its associated members. Colonel Peter M Cullen asserts that in spite of the genuine controversy surrounding this subject of targeted killing, a carefully orchestrated policy of
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such a focused approach can be a legal, moral, as well as effective tool in the campaign against insurgency and terrorism. The legal [t]angle Menzer continues, The dramatic events of September 11, 2001, led the United States, and soon after also Pakistan and Russia, to openly induct targeted killings in their repertoire of counter-terrorism and insurgency. At the same time, targeted killing also became increasingly accepted in Israel, the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Switzerland as a means of last resort in domestic law enforcement, particularly in situations of hostage-taking and against suspected suicide bombers. From the juridical point of view, Menzer concludes thus: …the international lex lata [present scheme of law] provides a clear, and satisfactory, regulatory framework for State-sponsored targeted killings, which requires careful and coherent interpretation... Coming back to Cullen, he tersely states that the concept of targeted killing is a new paradigm with which international law is yet to come to terms. And probably he is justified in saying so as Nils Melzer’s thesis also speaks in a somewhat similar language. Melzer continually insists on devising a lex ferenda [what the law should be] so as to properly deal with the subject of targeted killing. Blum and Heymann of the Harvard Law School opine that the rights of democratically-elected governments to use deadly force against its citizens is constrained by both domestic criminal law and international human rights norms which attempt to protect the individual’s right to life and liberty. At the other end, Dr Tal Tovy in a 2009 paper published in the Journal of Military and Strategic Studies, while attempting to theorise targeted killing, articulates: Targeted killings have become an effective operational tool, albeit a controversial one, within the complex of activities that a state carries out in the battle against terrorists or guerrilla fighters. Brian M Jenkins, in New Modes of Conflict — a 1983 RAND publication — states that guerrilla warfare became terrorism at the end of the 1960s when the guerrilla organisations renounced their parental format of warfare and also understood that they might not succeed in their futuristic aims of converting their guerrilla focos or October 2012
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TIME FOR A RERUN: Elimination of key leaders in the early 1970s derailed the erstwhile Naxal insurgency — forcing the movement to run out of steam
bands into conventional contingents. And we have categorically seen how anarchic acts of terror were curbed by some European governments in the late 1970s by being firm and resilient. Tovy lists some credible counterinsurgency programmes in the post-WW II era to substantiate his arguments. Mainly, the author quotes the suppression of the communist insurgency in Malaya and the effectively-implemented Phoenix programme against the Viet Cong communist guerrillas by the US. In both these concepts — especially, in the Phoenix programme — the counter-insurgents relied on targeting the leadership. Interestingly and quite logically, Tovy consistently mentions in his article that the targeted approach in the Phoenix programme never actually always meant ‘Targeted Killing’. It, in fact, denoted targeted imprisonment of the top leaders and extracting credible ground intelligence from them. Towards rationalisation In a spring 2012 paper published in the journal of International Security, Patrick Johnston of the RAND Corporation presents a mathematical modeling of suitable case studies which challenges the extant notion that high-value targeting is ineffective... Specifically, Johnston’s results showed that removing insurgent leaders increases governments’ chances of defeating insurgencies, reduces insurgent attacks, and diminishes overall levels of violence. However, Johnston cautions against a bind adherence to complete efficacy of the targeted approach when he writes that a variety of different empirical tests consistently demonstrated that governments were more likely to defeat insurwww.geopolitics.in
gencies following the successful removal of top insurgent leaders, but this probability was consistently estimated at around 25 to 30 per cent. Interestingly, in a master’s thesis submitted at the Naval Postgraduate School in December 2009, the scholarly triumvirate of Boyden, Menard and Ramirez raise suspicion about the efficacy of the targeted killing paradigm. In a crisp thesis, they propose a six-step methodology with an embedded robust analytic framework for determining the effectiveness of targeted killing. And by analysing Israel’s programme during the Second Intifada, they ultimately conclude that targeted killing was not effective — a viewpoint which would be contrary to Johnston’s and Tovy’s. The Indian way It seems to be a significant feature that Indian authors on counter insurgency have hardly discussed the targeted approach as a tactical methodology against insurgents. It is nothing unnatural though in the Indian context — which culturally repudiates any form of killing — even it may be for the establishment of law and order in the long run. Furthermore, the constitutional provisions debar such an approach on the plank of the ‘principle of natural justice’. To clarify further, in India, a targeted killing is invariably interpreted as an extra-judicial assassination where the accused would be denied audi alteram partem or the ‘right to be heard’. Even any counter-insurgency operation, which eventually leads to the elimination of a key leader; viz. Maoist spokesperson Azad or the dreaded Kishenji, is lambasted on unequivocal terms as ‘fake encounters’ by the rights activists. Such an overpowering intellectual
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matrix, combined with the existing cultural psyche submerges the cognition of the targeted approach — which in maximum possible theoretical arguments — finally seeks shelter in the semantics of ‘murder’ and ‘brutality’. Against this backdrop, it is essential to point out that in the Indian case, the targeted approach must connote targeted incarcerations, compounded with the killing of the insurgent leadership, as and when situation demands it. The latter, however, needs to be followed not as a matter of practice. At the same time, there is no need to shun it altogether. It may be remembered that elimination of key leaders in the early 1970s actually derailed the erstwhile Naxal insurgency — forcing the movement to run out of steam. A repetition of that approach may yet be tested — and that too against the successors of the same enemy. Nevertheless, two paths may well be traversed. One, a national-level legislative debate is warranted to arrive at any feasible constitutional adjustments so far as this controversial subject is concerned. And second, profound objective research must be conducted in the theoretical sphere in order to test the hypothesis of the targeted approach in the Indian scenario. It must, however, be construed that the tactical weaponry of targeted approach as a measure of counter insurgency is in no way a licence to kill. It is by fair calculations, a tactical doctrine within an overall ambit of strategy. Equivalently, it must be borne in mind that the insurgent too possesses no licence to kill. (The author is an IOFS officer under the Ministry of Defence, Government t of India. Any opinion expressed in this article in no way reflects the opinion of the Government of India and is solely that of the author) October 2012
geopolitics
DIPLOMACY AS ICE CAPS MELT AND OIL & GAS RESERVES ARE EXPOSED, RUSSIA AND NATO COUNTRIES ARE BEEFING UP THEIR ARMED FORCES IN THE ARCTIC FOR THE COMING
ROYALMARINES
BATTLE OVER RICHES
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The 61-year-old Morsi came to the United Nations after winning an election in June, in which nearly 52 per cent of voters elected him. The Egyptian President declared before the United Nations General Assembly that Cairo would not tolerate foreign dictates: “This revolution, and all the ones preceding it and following it in the region, were triggered by the long struggle of authentic national movements that sought a life of pride and dignity for all citizens. It is thereby reflecting the wisdom of history, and is sending a clear warning to those attempting to put their interests before those of their peoples.” Before his visit he dismissed criticism from the White House that he did not move fast enough to denounce Egyptian protesters who burned the American flag recently after climbing over the US Embassy’s wall in Cairo.
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EGYPTIAN PRESIDENT Mohammed Morsi’s recent visit to the United States has served as an important gauge of the US-Egyptian relationship. The visit, a calming of recent tensions with Washington and officials in Cairo, talked of ambitious new development projects to kickstart the troubled economy of the Arab nation. Morsi travelled to New York City for the annual session of the United Nations General Assembly. In what was his first visit to the US after assuming the Presidency, the timing was significant since there were diplomatic tensions between the two countries, thanks to the antiIslam film made in the US which sparked four days of violent protests around the American Embassy in Cairo. At stake were not just US-Egyptian ties but also Israeli national security and an impending geopolitical shift that would affect the Middle East.
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CANADA’S SURPRISE BREAK WITH IRAN
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ALI AKBAR SALEHI
October 2012
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THE 33,000 additional US troops that President Barack Obama ordered to Afghanistan to suppress Taliban attacks nearly two years ago have left, but a new wave of deadly insider attacks and a reassessment of how Nato troops partner with Afghans have raised questions about the military strategy. The US Defence Secretary, Leon Panetta, however, felt that the troops had come out, declaring that the “surge” had accomplished its mission. But after a tumultuous week in Afghanistan that saw commanders put limits on when Nato and Afghan troops can patrol together, Mr Panetta also acknowledged there would be difficult days ahead.”The surge did accomplish it objectives of reversing the Taliban momentum on the battlefield and dramatically increasing the size and capability of the Afghan national security forces,” said Mr Panetta during an official visit to New Zealand. The withdrawal, which was completed on schedule, still leaves close to 100,000 Nato troops in the country, including 68,000 Americans.
QUIPMETER “THE RESULTS of an American or Israeli military strike on Iran could prove catastrophic, haunting us for generations in that part of the world. The Israeli military, however formidable, does not have the capacity to destroy all the buried nuclear facilities at such long range.” — Former US Defence Secretary Robert Gates on bombing the Iranian nuclear facilities
HUGO CHAVEZ
CHAVEZ: THIS IS A BATTLE WE MUST WIN VENEZUELAN PRESIDENT Hugo Chavez has called on the youth to keep organising to guarantee the victory of the revolution ahead of the country’s presidential elections in October. Chaavez who is standing against right-wing candidate Capriles Radonski in the October elections, appealed to those in the crowd to take to the streets in order to mount “the perfect battle” for the elections.”I am asking you, with that incredible atomic energy that you possess and with that intelligence and consciousness, that you give it your all in these remaining days... it’s a battle we have to win,” said Chavez.”Capitalism is robbing the youth’s future, whilst socialism gives them back their homeland and makes their present good and their future big,” he told the crowd.
ABOUT TURN ON MEDVEDEV
MITYA ALESHKOVSKY
IRANIAN FOREIGN Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said that Canada had an extremist government. Responding to Ottawa’s decision to break off diplomatic relations with Iran, Salehi said that the government of Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper was “defending international Zionism.” Cutting diplomatic relations altogether is an extreme response to diplomatic security concerns. Iran’s belligerence on the nuclear issue and its support for the Syrian regime is not something do not directly concern Canada, given that Ottawa is not involved in either issue. Therefore, this was not likely a decision the Canadians made themselves. While Canada’s intent is not entirely clear, breaking diplomatic ties with Iran is a low-cost move that helps the domestic and foreign policy prerogatives of Harper’s government. The question now is whether other Western countries will follow Canada’s lead.
¡QUE COMUNISMO!
SURGING OUT OF KABUL!
VLADIMIR V PUTIN is going full steam ahead to reverse his predecessor’s decision to decriminalise slander, made just eight months earlier. He raised the retirement age for top officials to 70, foiling Mr. Medvedev’s attempt to “rejuvenate” Russia’s government by imposing an age limit of 60, or 65 in special cases. Last month lawmakers began the process of revisiting yet another modest change from Mr. Medvedev’s constrained presidency: his decision last year to end the practice of changing the time twice a year, moving Russia permanently to summer time. The bill’s sponsor did not mince words, saying Mr. Medvedev’s decision was “absolutely unacceptable for a huge part of” Russia. Criticism of Medvedev has begun to appear in mainstream outlets. “So in winter it will not get light an hour later, and in summer it will get dark an hour earlier — all this with only one goal: so that Medvedev, greeting the early dusk, will remember that he is nobody,” wrote the journalist Mikhail Fishman on Facebook.
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BATTLE OVER ARCTIC There is now a virtual cold war among the leading countries of the world over the control of the Arctic region, given its new-found geo-economic and geopolitical significance, writes ARUN MOHANTY
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F LATE, political and military leaders from a host of countries have started focusing their increasing attention on the Arctic, a region with enormous untapped resources and significant strategic value. The possibility of a new cold war is being increasingly debated and discussed by the media and experts over the Arctic, raising the spectre of heightened global tension in coming years. No wonder then that Chiefs of General Staffs of the countries of the Arctic region have started holding regular meetings on the issue of maintaining peace and security in the region. The latest such meeting, that took place in Canada on April, 2012, was attended by military strategists of all the Arctic countries. The meeting took place against the back-drop of increasing military activities in the region with both the NATO and Russia having conducted military exercises in the Arctic. As many as 16,300 troops took part in the NATO exercises, held in March 2012 in the territory located between Sweden and Canada. Russia too conducted military exercises in the region with its 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade deployed near Murmansk, performing drills and T-80 tanks executing manoeuvres. Ships of the Northern Fleet, military aircraft and helicopters as well as naval planes participated in the exercises. The Russian Air Force held separate manoeuvres in the north of the country. The Ladoga 2012 military exercise was held in April 2012 at the Besovets Air Base in Karelia with the participation of more than 50 military aircraft and helicopters. www.geopolitics.in
Huge polar resources, territorial disputes and imminent expansion of navigation facilities along the Northern Sea Route make the Arctic a strategically significant region. Political forces in the West as well as in the East are frequently raising the issue of converting the Northern Sea Route now controlled by Russia into a transit route under transnational management, triggering Moscow’s anger and protest. In the 20th century, Russia’s Arctic neighbours such as the US and Canada in North America, and Denmark and Norway in Europe staked their claims only over the shores of Northern Sea. But the moment it was discovered that the Arctic was a treasure house of huge mineral resources and precious metals, more and more nations, even outside the traditional five regional countries, have joined the fight for the Arctic shelf. With over 25 per cent of global hydrocarbon reserves, the Arctic resources are genuinely huge in scale. Geological surveys suggest that around 80 per cent of the energy resources there exist in the form of natural gas. Besides this, there are significant reserves of diamonds, gold, platinum, manganese, nickel, titanium, coal and bronze in the Arctic region, a lion’s share of which falls in the Russian part of the sea-bed. The key to all these resources lies in the Northern Sea Route. Today, countries interested in the Arctic resources include not only the US, Russia, Canada, Sweden, Denmark, Finland but also Asian nations such as Japan, China and South Korea. China has launched an energetic study of the polar zone of the Arctic with the help of an
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ice-cutting ship, leased from Ukraine. At first, it was Denmark that sent its arctic boats from its Navy to the Hans Island and expressed official protest against the landing of Canadian Defence Minister on the controversial island. Subsequently, their government approved a plan to build a united arctic military command, set up a military base in the north of Greenland and to form an Arctic group of forces by 2014. Canada, on its part, conducted military exercises in the littoral regions in the north and declared the creation of an Arctic naval force comprising eight warships. In the mean time, the US has deployed 24, 000 strong force in Alaska. According to experts, the US can at best claim a part of the Arctic,
g DIPLOMACY thanks to Alaska that became part of it in 1867 through a transfer from Russia; that too only in the formal sense, but not from legal point of view since Washington has not joined the convention on sea-laws of 1982. In any case, even if it comes to divide the Arctic, the US can only lay claim to a small sector, which is actually too small for “the sole super-power”. That is why the US is initiating moves for the ‘internationalisation’ of Arctic resources and demanding accessibility to them for transnational corporations like Shell, aiming at exploiting the arctic shelf resources without paying attention to the fact that the mad race for oil and possible oil spills on the shores of Alaska could cause serious damage to the ecology. It would be impossible to eliminate the consequences of such a disaster. The scandal with Greenpeace that launched a protest against Shell’s digging of experimental wells in the Arctic clearly indicates that “transnational corporations” as well as some countries are pursuing policies to defend their corporate or narrow-national interests detrimental
to the interests of international community. The only issue on which the hunters for Arctic treasure quickly found common language is internationalisation of the Northern Sea route, which has been largely provoked by the media reports about gradual global warming that would lead to clearing of ice in certain routes connecting the Arctic Ocean with the Pacific and Atlantic oceans . However, Russian experts believe that temperature in the Arctic would drop rather than increase by 2025, which would mean increasing of ice cover of the Arctic sea by 1.2 to 1.6 million square km, which is three times more than the territory of France. Even this factor does not cool down certain states trying to exert political, legal and informational pressure on Russia. That is why Russia looks determined to defend its interests in the Arctic, using all possible means, including the military ones. The Canadian Defence Minister Peter MacKay went on record that this year’s annual Canadian ‘sovereignty
A NEW COLD WAR: The Arctic is assuming not only geo-economic but also geo-strategic and geo-political significance with military posturing by several countries, such as these US Marines on exercise
exercise’ in the Arctic Ocean codenamed Operation Nanook was the largest till date, with at least 1,000 Canadian military personnel participating in it. What is revealing is that for the first time in the history of such Canadian exercises, this was described as an ‘sovereign exercise’, which took place directly and discretely in response to Russia’s renewed territorial claims in the Arctic Ocean, particularly in the context of “Lomonosov” and “Mendeleev” Ridges underwater ridge of the Eurasian continental crust in the Arctic Ocean. Moscow in some sense had abandoned or forgotten about these ridges during the closing years of the then Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev. However, under Putin, Russia has demonstrated an active interest in the Arctic for a number of reasons. First and foremost, there are huge DUTCH MINISTRY OF DEFENSE
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NORTHERN CLAIMS: The participants of the Arktika-2007 expedition set up a Russian flag on the floor beneath the North Pole (below) resulting in protests from western nations.
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natural resources. Secondly, in the eventuality of the melting of the polar ice cap, the much-talked about North-West Passage to the north of Canada connecting the Atlantic to the Pacific Oceans, will open up and thus allow nations to circumvent the Panama Canal or even longer journeys for commercial shipping as well as for transportation of energy. This would make the Arctic Ocean navigable round the year. The sea route connecting North America with Europe and Asia will cut short the shipping distance between Asia and Europe by over 4,000 kilometers saving billions of dollars in transportation cost and leading to significant changes in global trade and transportation patterns. Viewed thus, the Arctic is assuming not only geo-economic but also geo-strategic and geopolitical significance. That is why the countries of the Arctic region are vying with each other to have a stronger foothold in the Arctic. While Russia is pursuing a policy to defend its own economic and strategic interests in the region, Canada has started holding regular military exercises in the Arctic, popularly known as Nanook Operation. Since last year, other countries such as the US and Denmark have started participating in these exercises. Four out of the five Arctic countries — the US, Canada, Denmark and Norway — are members of NATO military block, which has unambiguously declared the region its zone of strategic interests during its summit in Iceland. In any case, NATO has highlighted, in recent years, energy security issues and declared that it has a special role in protecting global energy sources. In this connection, Russia’s strongman Vladimir Putin has emphatically stated that his country would definitely expand its presence in the Arctic region. While expressing Moscow’s readiness for dialogue with northern neighbours, he stressed that Russia would leave no stone unturned for defending its geopolitical and geo-economic interests ‘resolutely and consistently’ in the region. Subsequently, his Defence Minister Anatoly Serdyukov announced that Russia was planning to form two military brigades in the Arctic to defend Russia’s economic interests in the region. Currently, Russian General Staff is working on the details of the proposal, possible variants of
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dislocation of future military units, their number, structure, armaments and infrastructure, etc. Moscow is pursuing a double-edged policy by planning to expand the working format of the Arctic Council consisting of the US, Russia, Denmark, Canada and Norway, using it as a platform for negotiation for peaceful resolution of differences, and at the same time, launching a series of expeditions to study the Arctic shelf. This has already triggered a serious crisis over the Arktika-2007 expedition. Its participants set up a Russian flag on the floor beneath the North Pole. Consequently, the United States, Denmark, Canada and Norway made statements protesting against Russian move. NATO Air Force planes flew over the Russian expeditions in August, 2007. In response, Russia resumed flights by its Strategic Air Forces that had been suspended since 1992. Since July 2008, Russia’s ships of the Northern fleet have resumed their activities in the Arctic Sea. Russian plans in the Arctic region include military preparedness along with expansion of Arctic infrastructure. Moscow plans to build twenty border posts in the Arctic Ocean in order to protect and exercise control over the polar domains in the near future. Some of these
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posts will be located next to rescue centres planned to be built in coming years. Russia is planning to set up ten rescue centres in the Arctic under a special programme in next two decades. The rest of the frontier posts would be located on islands. Uninterrupted communication with the mainland will be provided through the Arctic satellite system, which is being deployed specifically for this purpose. A host of Russian federal ministries such as the Defence Ministry, the Ministry of Transport, Ministry of Natural Resources, Emergency Handling Ministry etc are involved in the implementation of the special programme worth billions of rubles. The first rescue ship under the programme has already been dispatched to the Arctic Sea. Border posts will act as the first line of protection of Russian interests in the Arctic region. If necessary, they would be supported by the Northern Fleet, a part of the Air Force and Arctic brigades of the Russian Army. In this scenario of reaction and counter-reactions between the NATO on the one hand and Russia on the other, we are witnessing a new type of cold war. What is particularly amusing in this regard is the recently-released game ‘Naval Warfare-Arctic Circle’, which conceptualises a war between Russia and the NATO in the Arctic with use of naval and air forces. Currently the global players are perhaps too busy in combating capitalism’s worst-ever crisis to risk this game into reality. However, things might change faster than expected to make the advent of a new cold war possible, with the Arctic being the trigger for it. (A Professor at JNU, the author is Director, Eurasian Foundation, New Delhi) October 2012
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THE PACIFIC ALLIANCE The new conglomeration of free economies in Latin America can be a great partner of India in diversifying and yet integrating their respective value chains in this age of globalisation, writes SORAYA CARO www.geopolitics.in
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NEW ECONOMIC BLOC: (From left to right) Peruvian President Ollanta Humala, Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos, Chilean President Sebastián Piñera and Mexican President Felipe Calderón at a meeting of the Pacific Alliance
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ALLED BY some “the Intelligent Alliance”, and by others the “exclusive club” of countries behind the Andes looking at Asia, the fact is that four of the major economies of Latin America — Chile, Colombia, México and Peru — have broken the windows inside the intricate regional establishment, that nowadays is guiding the future correlation of the “Americas”, www.geopolitics.in
with the rest of the world. Whilst recognising the important role that other regional integration scenarios are playing such as Mercosur, the Andean Community of Nations (CAN), UNASUR or the controversial Summit of the Americas, the heads of states of those countries signed the framework agreement of “The Pacific Alliance” (PA) in June 2012, an economic initiative that, if we look carefully, has strong foundations that become convergent drivers of integration: a) These four countries have a strong vocation to democracy as it is reflected in the ongoing strengthening of its institutions. b.) They are real open and integrated economies as seen, by making an assessment of the private sector share in the development of public infrastructure and when making an inventory of free trade agreements (FTA) signed with other countries and regions in all latitudes. c.) Because of their endowment of natural resources, human capital and development of industrial services they have a clear determination towards Asia-Pacific, one of the regions of the future. d.) All of them have strong commitment with their economic development with social inclusion and finally they all are located in the basin of the Pacific Ocean looking at Asia. According to the Minister of Commerce, Industry and Tourism of Colombia, together the four countries gather 206 million inhabitants, equivalent to the Brazilian population. Their GDP consistently growing at a rate of approximately 5 per cent, representing 34 per cent of Latin American GDP, it is equal to $1.7 billion. In terms of investments, these countries are receptors of $53 million of FDI equivalent to 41 per cent of the total in Latin America. The main sectors, by number of projects, in the block are BPO, software and IT services, financial services, metals, food as well as mining.
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Departure: from an advance level of integration The road map that was agreed, aims to take those economies to a highest level of liberalisation in trade and investment. To reach that end members are working to allow complete circulation of goods, services, capitals and people but also are foreseen to overcome in short-term, deficiencies that nowadays can compromise the competitiveness of these markets: transport, road interconnection, transmission and distribution of power and migration The free circulation of goods within the region is already at an advanced stage. Almost all tariffs of entry have been removed or are in process to be, due to previous bilateral agreements. Some agricultural products are still pending under protection. Apart from these issues, technical groups are working in the negotiation of sanitary and phyto-sanitary measures and technical barriers to trade in strategic sectors. Parties have recently finished the negotiation of electronic commerce, allowing countries to develop trade, applying technologies of information and communication. Free market of services and circulation of people are the areas of concern in which major efforts must be dedicated. Advances during last week are in the field of tourism. On August 30, 2012, the PA signed a Tourist Agreement that looks to promote this geographical area as a multi-destiny region, which implies to improve in connectivity, free movement of people and enhance investment in infrastructure. Likewise, the PA aims to facilitate the transit and free circulation of regional and international business communities and in that regard, different scenarios are under research to move further in the elimination of business visas. Among others, a business travel card similar to that of APEC is being considered an option. The InterAmerican Bank (IDB) and Economic Commission for Latin America (ECLAC) Continued on Page 78 `
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MUST begin on a somber note that India and Colombia do not know each other well. There is, what I say, a serious knowledge-deficit. For the average Colombian, India means three things: Gandhi, elephants, and yoga. And for an average Indian, Colombia is a distant exotic place, full of drugs and beautiful women (thanks to Colombians winning the Miss Universe and Miss World titles quite regularly). In fact, I have seen many educated Indians confusing Colombia with Columbia University in the United States. This knowledgedeficit, perhaps, explains, why despite 53 years of our diplomatic relationship, Indo-Colombian ties have not realised their true potential. The initial years were marked by spasmodic and short-lived initiatives, mostly related to specific political interest or current affairs. Of course, I would not say that it was specific only to Colombia; it was rather a reflection of overall relationship between India and Latin America. Mercifully, things have changed since the 1990s, when both India and Colombia opted for economic reforms. India emerged as a big trader in the global economy and needed a huge amount of natural resources and raw materials. It was realised that nations should not be viewed through the Cold War prism of whether they were Leftists or Rightists. Instead, what matters today is whether they display democratic tolerance and care for technological, economic and environmental elements of power. Thus, it was heartening that both Colombia and India started the process of liberalisation of their economies, adopting the first group of legal reforms and introducing
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AMBASSADOR’SJOURNAL
COLOMBIAN LESSONS TO FIGHT MAOISTS Diplomatic and economic relations between India and Colombia are now 53 years old. But it is over the last decade that the relationship has acquired real significance. JUAN ALFREDO PINTO SAAVEDRA, the Ambassador of Colombia to India, who, incidentally, has been a Maoist guerrilla, a minister, an entrepreneur, a professor of economic studies, and an author, spoke to PRAKASH NANDA about how the two countries are building innovative economic and cooperative dynamics www.geopolitics.in
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October 2012
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our bilateral relations into a phase of transition, which led the foundation of a period, which can be called “recognition and integration” (2000-2010). The net result is that our bilateral relations are growing very fast. There have been important high-level visits between the two countries. The two countries have been learning from each other how to deal with terrorism, new ideas of sovereignty, multiculturalism and macro-economic issues. For instance, in order to deal with the Maoists, India can have a look at how we managed our acute insurgency that was coupled with drug trafficking, giving Colombia a bad name in the comity of nations. First, by earning public support, we isolated the guerrillas. Then, we systematically strengthened our intelligence network and enhanced military capacity. We targeted the guerrilla leaders but welcomed the cadres to join the mainstream and lead a peaceful life. Simultaneously, we developed a wonderful rehabilitation programme, undertook a series of poverty-reduction measures and reduced chances of social conflicts. President Santos declared open the path to pass from “Democratic Security” to “Prosperity Democracy”. Side-by-side, Colombia’s Ministry of Defence increased military spending and coordination and this helped, between 2002 and 2009, decrease kidnapping by 90 per cent and homicides by 45 per cent. All this, in turn, increased the confidence of the international community in the stability of Colombian democracy. No wonder then, during the same period, there were a total of 81 investment projects by 64 US companies, including industry giants such as Microsoft, Nike and Direct TV. Colombia is now a regional leader in entrepreneurship, second only to Brazil. With a population of more than 45 million, one of Colombia’s greatest resources is its human capital. The country has the highest labour force growth rate and second-largest availability of skilled labour in Latin America. I am really pleased that Indian investors have noted the changes that have taken place in recent years. Today, there are nearly 30 big Indian companies, including the Tatas, Reliance, Infosys, Bajaj, Essar, ONGC, United Phosphorus Limited (UPL), and the Hero Group, competing in the Colombia markets, making in the process Colombia, the second-largest partner of India in Latin America, after Brazil. Essar www.geopolitics.in
alone is importing Colombian oil worth nearly $1 billion every month. Indian companies in sectors such as oil, coal, motorbikes, precious stones, business process outsourcing (BPO), pharmaceuticals, chemicals and capital goods have an important presence in our country.
The Indo-Colombian trade-front has witnessed a tremendous surge. In the last five years, the annual bilateral trade has risen 500 per cent to reach the two billion-dollar mark. We have diversified our exports offer, new goods and services penetrating the Indian market with products such as oil, coal, sugar, candies, wood, petrochemicals, home furnishing and emeralds. We have facilitated institutional relations among private-to-private institutions, resulting in 16 memorandums of understanding (MoUs) between Colombian companies and the FICCI, CII
INDO-COLOMBIAN TRADE-FRONT HAS WITNESSED A TREMENDOUS SURGE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS and ASSOCHAM. At the governmental level, our countries now have a total of 35 MoUs to facilitate the integration of our economies and share our experiences in various sectors, including those on science and technology. We want Indian companies, drawing their strength from science, technology, management expertise, to generate value to the Colombian goods and infrastructure and provide jobs to Colombians. We want Indian companies to build world-class airports, a la Delhi and Mumbai, in my country. In fact, if Indian companies have enough joint ventures with Colombia and other Latin American countries in Colombia, it would help them immensely in having an easy access to the markets in the United States, as products from Latin America do not have undue restrictions in entering the US. We have an MoU in defence cooperation with India. We regularly exchange notes on drug trafficking and judicial
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issues. Indian and Colombian universities have also signed six MoUs with specific agendas. Our cultural interactions with India have intensified in recent years. Two editions of ‘Colombian Cultural Week’ have drawn thousands of Indians in Delhi, Chennai, Kolkata and Bhubaneswar. There have been regular gatherings of writers and poets, photographs, sculpture and art exhibitions, and concerts of Colombian musical brands in Indian cities. Our cultural activity also included the translation of Colombian literature into Hindi and English and here I am grateful to the Sahitya Academy. As far as global issues are concerned, both Colombia and India, being members of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), have similar outlooks on many developments. NAM is an important expression of the world, but it is one of many other forms of expression. We value the relevance of the United Nations highly. In fact, as both Colombia and India are currently non-permanent members of the UN Security Council, the two countries have been working very closely and voiced similarly on many occasions. It is true that we have some honest differences with India over the expansion of the permanent members in the Security Council. As a member of the “Uniting for Consensus Group” (better known as Coffee Club), we oppose the bids for permanent seats proposed by G4 nations (Brazil, Germany, India and Japan) and call for a consensus before any decision is reached on the form and size of the Security Council. We have presented a new model of reform that calls for the creation of a new category of seats, still non-permanent, but elected for an extended duration (three to fiveyear terms) without the possibility of an immediate re-election. These new kind of seats would not be allocated to single countries, but rather to regional groups on a rotational basis. As far as traditional categories of seats are concerned, our proposal does not imply any change, but only the introduction of small and medium-size states among groups eligible for regular seats. This does not mean that we do not take India seriously. India is an important global power and its voices must be reflected in the United Nations. Like India, we want to improve the functioning of the United Nations. Our ways may be different, but our goal is the same. October 2012
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are working with countries to technically develop this process. Offering stable political and economic environments that guarantee the safety of endeavours, PA is already equipped with bilateral agreements to protect investments and to avoid double taxation. But countries want to go deep in the negotiation of this chapter with two main objectives: To establish the PA as an attractive destination that competes with advantage for FDI and to increase the inflows of capital among the members as well as from countries in Asia. The Pacific Alliance matters to India Analysing numbers of trade between India and the Pacific A l l i a n c e ’ s economies, they are not really significant if we considered the level of complementarity of these economies. But figures are steadily growing and crossed $ 5 billion in 2010. Although the exports of the four economies to India are mainly concentrated on natural resources such as oil, mining and agricultural products with a long-run perspective to continue, due to the increasing Indian demand, diversification of exports in goods and services is starting to happen. Secondly, following the course of contemporary international economic relations, the rise of value chains is also taking place and investments in both India and Pacific Alliance’s countries have been strategic platforms favouring this tendency. Joint research in agriculture and environmental issues is observed between Chile and India. Joint construction of ethanol plants, common research in biotechnology and assembling of motorbikes is occurring with www.geopolitics.in
Colombia. Fragmentation of production in the automotive and plastic industries, transfer of technology and chaining of added value in the cinema industry is seen with Mexico likewise, development of new products in beverages is taking place with Peru. Countries are concerned on the necessity to diversify and joint global value chains. Technical assistance is being provided by IDB to evaluate pos-
sibilities of productive chaining among PA’s industries. Soon, similar task may be developed integrating Indian and Pacific Alliance’s chains of value. The Pacific Alliance is building a geopolitical strategy of integration that takes advantage of a common favourable economic cycle. Earning weight in the regional context, the block will be in the
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position to influence the kind of economic relation it desire to develop with other regions, in an scenario that is increasingly interdependent. India is not starting from zero in this approach. Apart from the growing presence of Indian companies in the PA’s region and some important PA’s endeavours in India, countries have already created a set of legal instruments able to accelerate a deeper process of integration: a Partial Trade Agreement signed in 2006 with Chile that today is being negotiated to eliminate tariffs for more than 2000 products is an strategic mean. Bilateral Agreements to protect and promote investment and to avoid double taxation have been negotiated in most of the bilateral cases. On that basis, it is pertinent to ask to the authorities in both sides, if it is not the time to negotiate a free trade agreement between India and The Pacific Alliance. In terms of economic integration The Pacific Alliance must become a priority for those who are looking for safe and profitable destination for their investments. The Pacific Alliance represents a new logic of integration based on the concepts of extended vicinity, open economy and flexible productive systems. It is the materialisation of those political, social and economic changes that those four countries have experienced for the last two decades. (A Colombian lawyer, the author has long experience in processes of regional integration and industrial development. She is a Ph.D. Candidate on India-Latin America Relations from Indira Gandhi National Open University) October 2012
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GEOPOLITICS
DIPLOMACY
CENTRAL ASIA INDIA’S NEW STRATEGIC NEIGHBOURHOOD With increasing interplay of outside powers in the five Central Asian Republics, thanks to their geography and mineral resources, India is systematically increasing its strategic and economic options. The result has been the enunciation of India’s “Connect Central Asia” policy, writes GULSHAN SACHDEVA
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ECENTLY, THE Indian government announced a new policy for the Central Asian region called ‘Connect Central Asia’. The new initiative seeks to strengthen India’s political, security, economic and cultural connections with the five Central Asian countries, i.e. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Since 1992, when these republics became independent from the former USSR, Indian policy makers and analysts have believed that the region is important because of old cultural and civilisational linkages; its stratewww.geopolitics.in
gic location; energy resources; and trade and economic opportunities. Traditionally, most of the academic work on Central Asia was concentrated either on historical and cultural linkages on part of the broader Soviet Studies. In the last two decades, some new research based on geopolitics and geo-economics has emerged. Although a large part of the discourse is still dominated by historians and former Sovietologists, the situation is changing significantly. In the context of its location, oil and gas reserves and competition for pipeline routes, many analysts earlier created
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theories of the New Great Game in the 1990s. Later, the race for military bases and the regime-change experiments through colour revolutions added a new dimension to this competition. Despite the intentions and rhetoric, India was never really part of any competition there in the beginning. With no direct road transportation access and difficult market conditions, the region did not become attractive to Indian private companies. In the post-socialist period, economic relationship with the region had also declined considerably. Earlier, analysts felt that the real competition in the region was October 2012
between Russia and the US. Indian policy makers were more or less comfortable in dealing with Central Asian authoritarian leaders. They were part of the former Soviet elite, with whom India had been dealing with for decades. They had provided stability and were committed to fight religious terrorism. Although many in India still believe in the re-emergence of a strong Russia, a sobre assessment has also been made of a scenario in which, over time, China would become a dominant player in Central Asia while being very friendly to Russia. As China has increased its engagement in the region and created a huge profile for itself through trade, energy deals, military agreements and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), India is watching carefully. Despite many positive developments and fruitful diplomatic engagements, India is still very cautious in matters relating China. Uncertainty concerning post-2014 Afghanistan has also added a new dimension to India-Central Asia relations. The failure of the Afghanistan project poses common security challenges but any positive outcome will open tremendous economic opportunities to both India and Central Asia. These two factors have increased strategic significance of the region considerably and are perhaps reawww.geopolitics.in
sons for announcing a new ‘Connect Central Asia’ policy. As outlined by the Minister of State for External Affairs E Ahmed at the first India Central Asia Dialogue in Bishkek on June 12, 2012, the new policy comprises 12 points: Strengthening political relations with the region Strengthening strategic and security cooperation (military training, joint research, counterterrorism cooperation, close consultations on Afghanistan) Stepping up multilateral engagement (SCO, Eurasian Custom Union) Partnership in energy and natural resources Straitening cooperation in the medical field Establishing a new Central Asian University in Bishkek Setting up Central Asian e-network with its hub in India Strengthening private partnerships in sectors such as construction and iron and steel Reactivating International North South Trade Corridor Strengthening cooperation in the banking sector
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Improvement in air connectivity Encouraging regular academic exchanges and civil society contacts Building on its past linkages and goodwill, India has already developed strong political and developmental relations including a ‘strategic partnership’ and an agreement on uranium trade with Kazakhstan. India was among the first to open diplomatic missions in all the five republics. It regarded the region as a close political partner under the concept of “extended neighbourhood”. The ‘Focus CIS’ programme of the Commerce Ministry, however, achieved very limited success in Central Asia. At the time of the Soviet Union, Indian economic contacts with the republics of the USSR including with the Central Asian republics were through Moscow. The Soviet Union used to be India’s major trading partner. The nature and character of the then IndoSoviet trade and economic relations largely determined relations with Central Asia. In the post-socialist period, economic relations with the Central Asian region declined considerably. Currently, the official two-way annual trade between India and the region is about $ 500 million (with about $ 300 million exports). Only Kazakhstan accounts more than half of this trade. A limited developmental partnership was established via lines of credit from the EXIM Bank and through capacity building through Indian Technical & Economic Cooperation (ITEC) progarmme. Immediately after the announcement of this new policy, the Tajik President October 2012
g DIPLOMACY Emomali Rahmon visited India in September 2012 and signed six agreements concerning cooperation in textile industry, health and medicine as well as educational and cultural exchanges. The strategic importance of Tajikistan is to be seen from the fact that it shares border with Afghanistan. India also helped building Ayni air base in the country. Tajik Air has also decided to resume its direct air links between New Delhi and Dushanbe. Both the countries have now agreed to deepen counter-terrorism cooperation and elevate the relations to a “strategic partnership”. The countries of this region could provide good investment opportunities for Indian business. This is clearly shown by London-based Indian steel tycoon Laxmi Mittal. He owns a six-million tonne capacity steel plant in Kazakhstan employing more than 40,000 people and from there it now mainly supplies to the CIS countries and Iran. The company produces up to six per cent of the country’s GDP, and is one of Kazakhstan’s largest foreign investors. Under the new policy, steel has been identified as one of the key areas of cooperation along with construction sector. To facilitate investments, cooperation in the banking sector is also unveiled. Energy competition in the region is fierce as China is aggressively buying assets in the region. This was clearly illustrated in 2005 when China outbid India to acquire PetroKazakhstan, Kazakhstan’s third-largest oil producer with CNPC raising its bid to $4.18 billion. After trying for many years, India may finally be getting into the energy scene in Central Asia. In April 2011, during the Indian Prime Minister’s visit to www.geopolitics.in
Kazakhstan, the final agreement for 25 per cent stake in Satpayev block was signed. This transaction marked the entry of ONGC Videsh Limited (OVL) in Kazakhstan’s hydrocarbon sector. The Satpayev exploration block, located in the Kazakhstan sector of the Caspian Sea, covers an area of 1482 sq. km and is at a water depth of six-Eight metres. It has estimated reserves of 1.8 billion barrels. OVL is expected to invest about $400 million in the project and oil is expected to flow from by 2020. Kazakhstan has also agreed to supply 2100 tonnes of uranium to India’s nuclear plants by 2014. There are also some positive developments in Turkmenistan-AfghanistanPakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline. In the last 13 years, there has been lot of discussion on the $7.6-billion pipeline. There have been some uncertainties — gas reserves in Turkmenistan, security situation in Afghanistan, and strained relations between India and Pakistan. Still, all parties are still considering the proposal very seriously. This 1,680-km pipeline will run from the Dauletabad gas field in Turkmenistan to Afghanistan, from there it will be constructed alongside the highway running from Herat to Kandahar, and then via Quetta and Multan in Pakistan. The final destination of the pipeline will be Fazilka in Indian Punjab. India was formally invited to join the project in 2006. In April 2008, Afghanistan, India and Pakistan signed a framework agreement to buy gas from Turkmenistan. Earlier this year, India and Pakistan agreed on the principle of “Uniform Transit Fee”. It means whatever transit fee formula is settled between India and Afghanistan it would also be acceptable to Pakistan. In May this year, the Union Cabinet gave its approval to the payment of 50 cents per million metric British thermal unit as the transit fee to Pakistan and Afghanistan for the gas. Based on indices of fuel basket, all four have also signed gas sale purchase agreement. The pipeline will have a capacity to carry 90 million
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metric standard cubic metres a day of gas for a 30-year period. If things go as planned, the pipeline will become operational by 2018. In recent months, there are reports indicating a rival pipeline project being negotiated between China, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan. This might have pushed India and Pakistan to conclude transit and purchase negotiations. Although India’s current trade with Central Asian region is small and likely to remain modest in the coming years. However, importance of the region for Indian trade should be understood in the context of its continental trade rather than seeing only in the context of very small regional trade. By 2015, India’s trade with Europe, CIS plus Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan would be about $500 billion annually. Even if 20 per cent of this trade were conducted through road, $100 billion of Indian trade would be passing through the Afghanistan and Central Asia. With the possibility of this trade passing through Central Asia, most of the infrastructural projects in the region will also become economically viable. Creation of this infrastructure will create further incentives for regional and sub-regional cooperation. Both Afghanistan and Pakistan are in the process of implementing the AfghanPakistan Transit Trade Agreement (APTTA). They have agreed to facilitate the movement of goods between and through their respective territories. Pakistan has allowed Afghan exports to India through Wagah and to China through Sost/ Tashkurgan. Similarly, Afghanistan has allowed Pakistani trucks to reach Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Iran through its territories. Recently, both have also decided, in principle, to include Tajikistan also into APTTA. At the moment, APTTA is designed to exclude India. If implemented properly, however, it may create insurmountable pressures within Pakistan and Afghanistan to open up trade across the border with India. In recent months, there have also been some positive developments on India- Pakistan trade front. By 2015, the existing customs union between Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus will be converted into Eurasian Economic Union with a free flow of goods, services, capital and workforce among member states along with a supranational body called Eurasian Commission. Now India has to synchronise all these developments within its new ‘Connect Central Asia’ policy. (The author teaches at the School of International Studies, JNU) October 2012
GEOPOLITICS
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Right Angle
NEGOTIATING THE ARMS
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AUDI ARABIA has overtaken India as the largest arms importer in the world. That is what the latest report of the US Congressional Research Service (CRS), which was released on August 24, says. “Saudi Arabia was the leading developing world arms purchaser from 2004 to 2011, making arms transfer agreements totaling $75.7 billion during these years (in current dollars).” According to the CRS, though in the 2004-2007 period, India ranked first in arms transfer agreements at $25.3 billion, in 2008- 2011 Saudi Arabia ranked first in arms transfer agreements, with a substantial increase to $52.1 billion from $23.6 billion in the earlier 2004-2007 period. In fact, it alone accounted for almost 22 per cent of all developing-world arms transfer agreements during these eight years. In the most recent period, 2008-2011, Saudi Arabia made $52.1 billion in arms transfer agreements. India ranked second in arms transfer agreements during 2008-2011 with $21.3 billion (in current dollars), or 10.3 per cent of the value of all developing-world arms transfer agreements. If one goes by the arms imports in 2011, the Prakash CRS reveals that Saudi Arabia ranked first in the value of arms transfer agreements among all developing nations weapons purchasers, concluding $33.7 billion in such agreements. The Saudis concluded $33.4 billion of these agreements with the United States (99 per cent) alone. India ranked second with $6.9 billion in such agreements. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) ranked third with $4.5 billion. Some interesting trends of global arms trade can be discerned from the CRS study. Developing nations continue to be the major importer of arms. Recent arms transfer agreements with developing nations constituted 79.2 per cent of all such agreements globally from 2008 to 2011, and 83.9 per cent of these agreements in 2011 alone. The value of all arms transfer agreements with developing nations in 2011 was over $71.5 billion. This was a substantial increase from $32.7 billion in 2010. In 2011, the value of all arms deliveries to developing nations was $28 billion, the highest total in these deliveries values since 2004. Though the United States is the number one exporter of global arms to the developing world and Russia the second, the gap between them has widened considerably. From 2008 to 2011, the United States made nearly $113 billion in such agreements, 54.5 per cent of all these agreements. Russia made $31.1 billion, 15 per cent of these agreements. If one takes the 2011 figure, the United States signed arms transfer agreements with developing nations worth over $56.3 billion or 78.7 per cent of these agreements, an extraordinary increase in market share from 2010, when the United States held a 43.6 per cent market share. In second place was Russia with $4.1 billion or 5.7 per cent of such agreements. In 2011, the United States ranked first in the value of arms deliveries to developing nations at $10.5 billion, or 37.6 per cent of all such deliveries. Russia ranked second in these deliveries at $7.5 billion or 26.8 per cent.
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Same is the case in the overall arms exports to both developed and developing nations. In 2011, the United States ranked first in the value of all arms deliveries worldwide, making nearly $16.2 billion in such deliveries or 36.5 per cent. This was the eighth year in a row that the United States led in global arms deliveries. Russia ranked second in worldwide arms deliveries in 2011, making $8.7 billion in such deliveries. The United Kingdom ranked third in 2011, making $3 billion in such deliveries. Among the major European arms suppliers, France and the United Kingdom have been most successful in concluding significant orders with developing countries from 2004 to 2011, based on either long-term supply relationships or their having specialised weapons systems available for sale. Germany, however, has shown particular success in selling naval systems customised for developing nations. The United Kingdom has had comparable successes with aircraft sales. As a group, the four major West European suppliers (France, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Italy) registered a decrease in their collective share of all arms transfer agreements Nanda with developing nations between 2010 and 2011. This group’s share fell from 14.9 per cent in 2010 to 5.7 per cent in 2011. The collective value of this group’s arms transfer agreements with developing nations in 2011 was $4.1 billion compared to a total of nearly $4.8 billion in 2010. Three important points could be derived from the above trends. First, the health of the overall arms market is not exactly in a good shape, with the decline of shares of Russia and major West European suppliers. That the United States is doing well on the other hand cannot be overstressed because its total upward value was from massive arms deals with a single country, Saudi Arabia. Secondly, the future of the global arms markets depends basically on the oil-rich Persian Gulf countries on the one hand and emerging Asian economies such as India and Asean nations on the other. This dependence, in turn, will be reflected on emerging global geopolitical trends. For instance, the US behaviour towards the so-called Arab Spring will be factored by its relations with Sunni Arab monarchies. Likewise, the arms-trade will be one of the important factors in determining American attitude towards India. Thirdly, given the resultant competitions among the major arms producers to cultivate the markets in the Persian Gulf, South Asia and Southeast Asia, this is the best time for the importers to leverage their attractiveness by demanding better terms and conditions such as flexible financing options and guarantees of counter-trade, co-production, licensed production, and co-assembly elements in their contracts to secure new orders. In short, this is the best time for greater cost offsets in the arms contracts, as well as transfer of more advanced technology and provisions for domestic production options.
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prakashnanda@newsline.in October 2012