Geopolitics by Newsline

PERSPECTIVE: OFFSETS AND THE FMS ROUTE

geopolitics VOL II, ISSUE IX, FEBRUARY 2012

`100

DEFENCE nDIPLOMACY nSECURITY

n INDIA’S

GLOBAL CHALLENGES n IMPORTANCE

OF SMALL ARMS

n NOT

SECURING THE SOUTH BLOCK

n LESSONS FOR

INTERNAL SECURITY

. . . H G I H G N I Y FL

But are they trained enough?

COVER STORY (P44)

HITTING TURBULENCE

MOD

Plagued with a dearth of trainers, the IAF has been beset with a dismal accident rate resulting in the loss of precious lives and costly machines. We take a look at the factors which have resulted in so many aircraft flying into the ground.

SPOTLIGHT (P34 )

DRDO

ARMY.MIL

PANORAMA (P10)

ETERNAL PLIGHT

ASSESSING THE KAVERI

The first inmates of the Guantanamo Bay detention camp started arriving in 2002. Ten years later the US still continues to operate this extrajudicial detainment and interrogation facility.

We take a look at the state of affairs of the Kaveri engine programme, which is one of the country's most long-drawn indigenous defence ventures

DEF BIZ (P31)

PERSPECTIVE (P24)

NOT GUNG-HO ENOUGH NOVEL PATH Self-reliance in fabrication of small arms is essential for India if it hopes to be a major actor on the global stage

www.geopolitics.in

India must make use of the Foreign Military Sales route with respect to high-tech systems, which are not available from multiple sources and which do not require comparative trials.

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INTERNAL SECURITY (P58)

LESSONS FROM RUSSIA Russia has dealt with internal rebellions in an iron-fisted manner. Can India learn from the Russian approach in dealing with insurgencies?

February 2012

NPISTANBUL

ARMY.MIL

NKNEWS

THE HERMIT PRINCE (P76)

KEY PARTNERSHIP (P70)

DECONSTRUCTING 2012 (P66)

INTOLERABLE METHODS (P62)

The world is looking with uncertainty at North Korea with a young Kim Jong-nam at the helm of affairs in the pariah state with a million-strong army and nuclear weapons

In the Pentagon’s latest considered outlook, India is viewed as a key strategic partner in the US quest to maintain peace and stability.

This year will have both challenges and opportunities in store for India in its dealings with the rest of the world.

A pragmatic balance between the competing interests of personal liberty of the accused and public safety is required while conducting investigations to detect the criminals.

SPECIAL REPORT (P14) DEFENDING THE SKIES The move towards network centricity has seen the IAF initiate the process of inducting a range of new platforms and ground-based systems sorely needed to meet the emerging air-space threats of the 21st century.

KOS93

DIPLOMACY (79)

PLANNING FOR PULLOUT

Editor-in-Chief

K SRINIVASAN Editor

Managing Editor

PRAKASH NANDA

GEOPOLITICS

Consulting Editor

SAURAV JHA

TIRTHANKAR GHOSH

Assistant Editor

JUSTIN C MURIK

Senior Designer

RUCHI SINHA

Designer

MOHIT KANSAL

Director (Corporate Affairs)

RAJIV SINGH

Senior Correspondent

ROHIT SRIVASTAVA

Copy Editor

DEFENDING ITS OWN SECURITY AND

ASHOK KUMAR

ECONOMIC INTERESTS IN THAT

Staff Photographer

COUNTRY.

HEMANT RAWAT Director (Marketing)

RAKESH GERA

Conceptualised and designed by Newsline Publications Pvt. Ltd., from D-11 Basement, Nizamuddin (East), New Delhi -110 013, Tel: +91-11-41033381-82 for NEWSEYE MEDIA PVT. LTD. All information in GEOPOLITICS is derived from sources we consider reliable. It is passed on to our readers without any responsibility on our part. Opinions/views expressed by third parties in abstract or in interviews are not necessarily shared by us. Material appearing in the magazine cannot be reproduced in whole or in part(s) without prior permission. The publisher assumes no responsibility for material lost or damaged in transit. The publisher reserves the right to refuse, withdraw or otherwise deal with all advertisements without explanation. All advertisements must comply with the Indian Advertisements Code. The publisher will not be liable for any loss caused by any delay in publication, error or failure of advertisement to appear. Owned and published by K Srinivasan, 4C Pocket-IV, Mayur Vihar, Phase-I, Delhi-91 and printed by him at Nutech Photolithographers, B-240, Okhla Industrial Area, Phase-I, New Delhi-110020. Readers are welcome to send their feedback at geopolitics@newsline.in. www.geopolitics.in

AS THE US PREPARES FOR A COMPLETE WITHDRAWAL FROM AFGHANISTAN, INDIA HAS TO BE PRO-ACTIVE IN

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PERSPECTIVE: OFFSETS AND THE FMS ROUTE

geopolitics VOL II, ISSUE IX, FEBRUARY 2012 `100

DEFENCE DIPLOMACY SECURITY

INDIA’S

GLOBAL CHALLENGES IMPORTANCE

OF SMALL ARMS

NOT

SECURING THE SOUTH BLOCK

LESSONS FOR

Cover Design: Ruchi Sinha

INTERNAL SECURITY

FLYING HIGH...

But are they trained enough?

Photos: PRO Air Force, HC Tiwari

February 2012

GEOPOLITICS

LETTERS

LETTERS TO EDITOR

our story on Bofors (geopolitics December 2011) has brought out an unexpected revelation. It seems that the Ordnance Factory Board (OFB) has discovered-two and a half decades after the fact-that it had the blueprints of manufacturing these Guns in their possession all this while! As a part of Bofors contract,

these drawings were contracted for, and their apparently serendipitous discovery at this stage is indicative of the shockingly lackadaisical attitude of the OFB/DRDO towards managing its own assets. It is not surprising that an organization that cannot keep track of whether or not it has crucial blueprints in its possession, has made no progress towards developing a Gun through indigenous means. This discovery comes at a time when India has conducted multiple field trials of Guns from different vendors-which for one reason or the

other have proved to be unsatisfactory. The only tangible 'progress' that seems to have occurred is the blacklisting of potential suppliers. Meantime, the Indian Army continues deprived of vital fire-power. Developing 155mm Artillery Gun is no rocket science (especially with drawings already available). Further, this is an area in which the ARDE/DRDO has a successful track record: the ARDE successfully developed the 120mm tank Gun for ARJUN and 'up-gunned' the 130mm Russian Gun. Similarly the DRDO indigenous-

g LETTERS ly developed a 105 mm Indian Field Gun from a scratch. I believe that it is fully in their capabilities to use these drawings and begin indigenous production of the Bofors Gun. This project must be initiated immediately and completed post haste. Now that we have the drawings we should avoid compounding a grievous mistake. The Bofors Gun is a proven commodity and will meet the needs of the Indian Army. Let's dust off these blue-prints and get to work! Regards Maj Gen R C Suri (Retd.)

came across your magazine last month at the airport and I must say that I loved it thoroughly. The one article that caught my attention was "Unleashing the UPSC" (January

2012) by Raj Mehta. The article gave a totally new perspective at the importance of UPSC in armed force perspective. I must say when it comes to recruitment in forces one never thinks of the UPSC as the institution which is involved in the selection process. I recommend that you bring out an article on the proposal of the National Defence University and its current status. "Time for change" (January 2012) by Cmde Ranjit Rai was a good read. The article has made a preposition for creating new post of Joint Secretary (Maritime) for close coordination between the Ministry of Shipping and Ministry of Defence. I would like to congratulate you for the same. The recent events in the Indian Ocean have blurred the responsibility between the shipping and navy all thanks to pirates. The new challenges require new systems to tackle them. India today can't afford to be slow in reacting to new developments institutionally. "500 Miles of Reality Check" ( January 2012) was nice way of looking at

the border management of the Jammu region in the Jammu and Kashmir. The seamless manner in which the border management and the internal security apparatus operate in the valley is testimony to the external influence in the security situation of the valley. The whole debate on AFSPA has missed this point. It was a good eye opener to know the absurdity that exists in our northern-most state. To go to the other side of the Pir Panjal one has to take a detour of 500 km! But I guess that is the reality of Kashmir. The human element in the border management is the key in spite of the technological advancements. Kudos to our jawans! I am eagerly looking forward to the next issue. Regards Pravesh Khanna All correspondence may be addressed to: Editor, Geopolitics, D-11 Basement, Nizamuddin (East), New Delhi-110013. OR mail to geopolitics@newsline.in.

{GOLDENEYE}

Is the MS not an important post?

An insult to Kayani and Co

THE MILITARY Secretary of the Army, Lt Gen G M Nair, retired on January 31 and Lt Gen Sanjeev Chachra was to take over this critical responsibility. As for the post of MS, once upon a time, like the Principal Staff Officer’s post, was never in the limelight. But, thanks to a series of controversies including the big one, army chief’s age controversy, it has become a very important position. In continuation with the standoff with the army chief, the ministry returned his recommendation of Lt Gen Chachar for this post as he would serve only for four months from February 1 to May 31, as he is slated to take over as an army commander. The insider take is that the ministry was not comfortable with the Gen V K Singh nominee as MS. The idea was to rub a little more salt into the General’s wounds. Better sense finally prevailed when it was pointed out that this was something that was entirely within the domain of the army chief — formally approving his choice.

A sprint to the finish! IT’S LITERALLY like a sprint to the finishing tape. With the MMRCA bid in the final stages of vetting, both sides have ratcheted up the decibels to have their perspective take centrestage. As an offshoot it has literally become a race between Germany’s Angela Merkel (who is straining every muscle to make sure that the Eurofighter gets past the post) and France’s Nicolas Sarkozy who believes that nothing in the world can stop Dassault from getting the plum cake. In fact, EADS is so touchy about the whole issue that it had, as late as 2011, turned down a feeler from its British partner, BAE Systems, to become a joint prime bidder for the deal. At the moment it is Germany-based Cassidian —

www.geopolitics.in

THE STAND-off between General V K Singh and the sarkar is the stuff of plenty of jokes. General Singh’s complaint about the government treating him like a Pakistani general was the butt of plenty of mirth. The general assessment was that it was an insult to the Pakistani generals who are in a different league of their own having executed three major coups in 60 years to decide the course of their nation. In fact, Singh actually downgraded himself with that comment! The Indian General was absolutely correct when he said that he was subservient to the political system as laid down by the Constitution. In fact, the joke was: Which Pakistani general has gone to discuss the matter of personnel with that country’s Defence Minister? The joke further went that Generals in Pakistan must have been feeling very insulted that how could the Indian army chief speak about them in such derogatory terms? Any thought of summoning the Army Chief in his office will give jitters to the Defence Minister of Pakistan. They are the ‘Anna Data or Mai Baap’ of Pakistan.

a key unit of EADS — that is a prime bidder. Wall Street Journal reporting on the issue said: “The person familiar with the matter added that ‘full participation of industrial partners’ is welcomed ‘but they (BAE Systems) can’t be expected to come at a late stage with equal benefit. They will benefit anyway’.” However, BAE Systems said it has backed EADS’ role in the consortium’s negotiations with the Indian government: “We do not recognise this. We have always been fully supportive of Cassidian’s lead in the bid for the Indian MMRCA (Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft) competition,” a spokeswoman for BAE Systems said. But that’s the sub plot; the real plot is the Franco-German sprint. At the moment, the odds are that Merkel will breast the tape first. But no one knows, till the deal is finally announced. Let’s wait and watch.

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February 2012

{GOLDENEYE}

Not a general website Like him or dislike him but you simply can’t ignore him. Yes, we are talking about the much talked-about General V K Singh. The country seems to be divided into two strict sides: the friends of V K Singh and the other — you guessed it — made up of those not his friends. Not satisfied with the chain mails going around in the General’s favour that were bent on educating the masses about the injustice done to him, someone has come up with the bright idea of launching a website on General Singh’s life and work. The website claims that it is a tribute to the army chief who has made it his life goal to clean the image of the army and restore its dignity and honour. It has all the details about the general’s life and military accomplishments. The website also details the controversial issues that General Singh has had to face. The website claims it has got its material from “original sources”.

Two minute

HE HOME Minister of India, the man responsible for the internal security of the country, is undoubtedly a very, very busy man. His time is very precious and every minute counts. Journalists recently got a taste of Chiddu’s time-management technique during a Border Security Force-organised meeting. It so happened that the BSF had organised a press conference of the Home Minister on the occasion of the inauguration of their Intranet. The beat hacks arrived as per the schedule and the honourable Minister who came late went straight to the conference with the BSF top brass. This put the journalists off who had come out in the cold of Delhi in January to get a few newsworthy nuggets from the HM. When things got delayed beyond reasonable limits, the BSF public relations department was seen placating miffed journalists who were complaining regarding their waste of time in the middle of a working day. When the Minister did arrive for the press conference — which was only for two minutes — he simply read from the press release. The Minister, in his opening statement, made it clear that he would reply to one or two queries on the event only. And he chose to leave the conference, once the question regarding the CISF incident in Uri came up. One-and-a-half hour wait for two minutes of PC!!! Maybe it’s time to present Chiddu with a stopwatch. He attends press conferences as if he in a 200-metre race — breezes in and breezes out!

www.geopolitics.in

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February 2012

GEOPOLITICS

PANORAMA

SHACKLED EXISTENCE: Some of the detainees have been on the island for nearly ten years

GUANTANAMO:

TEN YEARS

LATER

AMNESTY.ORG

GUANTANAMO BAY: A CALENDAR

www.geopolitics.in

È JUNE 1898 Guantánamo Bay was used for the first time as a camp. US troops use it as a launch pad during the Spanish-American War. È FEBRUARY 1903 The US leases 45 square miles in Guantanamo Bay for 2,000 gold coins (around $5,000) a year. Roosevelt signed the deal, but Castro said ‘no’ to the yearly rent.

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È JANUARY 1961 Bay of Pigs crisis, US-Cuba relationship crumbles. Guantanamo Bay remains with the US. È SEPTEMBER 11, 2001 Twin Tower attack and the Al Qaeda’s war on the US. È JANUARY 2002 The first lot of suspects are flown in from Afghanistan after a 20-hour flight to the naval February 2012

g PANORAMA

en years ago, the first Guantanamo prisoners arrived at Camp X-Ray, housed in open-air cages with concrete floors. Since then it has become one of the most controversial symbols of the US war on terror. Within the US, the opposition to Guantanamo is deep and divisive. Five former US Secretaries of State said: “[…] the next President should move quickly to close the military prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. That single act would improve America’s dismal reputation in the world immediately.” The five who agreed were Henry Kissinger, James Baker, Warren Christopher, Madeleine Albright and Colin Powell. That was three years ago when Barack Obama was just getting ready to take office. Now he is in the middle of another exacting campaign for reelection and Guantanamo is nowhere near being closed. It continues to hold prisoners, it continues to be controversial and depending on which side of the divide you are on; it is either ‘a horror’ as the US Civil Liberties Union states or ‘a heartwarming and fine prison system’ as Donald Rumsfeld would have you believe. Ultimately, Guantanamo has become as controversial as the war on terror itself!

CONSTANT SURVEILLANCE: Each movement of the detainees is closely monitored

VETERANSUNITED.COM

base in Guntanamo.Within a year, the number goes up to 700.

È JULY 2004 In a move to make sure that US courts do not entertain detainees’ challenge of their detention, the US Military describes them as “enemy combatants”. È MAY 2005 Riots at Guantanamo over alleged insult to the Koran. www.geopolitics.in

È JUNE 2006 US Supreme Court rules 53 that the trial system at Guantanamo violates the US and international laws. È JUNE 2008 Supreme Court rules that detainees can challenge their detention in mainland US Courts. È JANUARY 2009 In a shocker, the US government admits torturing detainees.

È JANUARY 20, 2009 Barack Obama is sworn in President as successor to George Bush. È JANUARY 22, 2009 President Obama talks of closing down the facility and interrogation techniques like water boarding be banned. È JANUARY 2011 President Obama signs the 2011 Defence

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Authorisation Bill that provides for not closing Guantanamo Bay or transferring prisoners away.

È DECEMBER 2011 The 2012 National Defence Bill is approved. It means prisoners can be held indefinitely without charge. It also extends the ban on transferring prisoners from the facility. February 2012

LASTWORDONNOTHING.COM

MAGGIESNOTEBOOK.COM

We will continue to fight terror, but maintain our values and our ideals. (The Guantanamo prison) will be closed no later than one year from now. The United States intends to win the on-going struggle against violence and terrorism. We are going to do so vigilantly.

LASTWORDONNOTHING.COM

PANORAMA

— BARACK OBAMA US President

I am determined to speak the truth; Guantanamo is not in keeping with US values.

— NIKOLAS SARKOZY French President

An institution like Guantanamo can and should not exist in the longer term. Different ways and means must be found for dealing with these prisoners.

— ANGELA MERKEL German Chancellor

Prisoners of war in Afghanistan had to be treated unconventionally because they could not be proved guilty in a “proper” court of law but would be a threat if released.

— TONY BLAIR Former British Prime Minister

www.geopolitics.in

I.HUFFPOST.COM

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February 2012

g PANORAMA

PUBRECORD.ORG

COLD STATISTICS

REVU.NL

GLOBAL OUTCRY: There have been protests around the world against the US over the imprisonment of the Guantanamo detainees

È NUMBER OF PRISONERS: 779 (There were scores of prisoners held in Guantanamo Bay in secret from 2003 to June 2004 when the US Supreme Court ordered that the prisoners be allowed access to courts. They have not been identified nor is there any count). È NUMBER WHEN OBAMA TOOK

OFFICE:

I think some people — and there were some in our administration who felt (if we’re nicer to terrorists, they’ll be nicer to us). And I wasn’t one of them. This notion that somehow Guantanamo was a major cause of recruitment, a recruitment tool for Al Qaeda — I just don’t think that’s true.

— DICK CHENEY Former US Vice President

The heart-breaking thing with respect to Guantanamo is not that there’s anything wrong with it, it’s one of the finest prison systems in the world.

— DONALD RUMSFELD Former US Secretary of State

242

È PRESENT NUMBER: 171 È CITIZENS OF COUNTRIES

IMPRISONED AT GUANTANAMO: 48

A PRISONER’S TALE Suleiman al-Nahdi was detained because he attended an al-Qaidalinked training camp in Afghanistan but he was not accused of any specific attacks on US forces. The military classified him as a “low-level” mujahedeen who could be transferred out of Guantanamo, where he has been held since June 2002. He now waits with dozens of other prisoners in a seemingly permanent state of limbo five years after he was cleared for release from Guantanamo Bay. “I wonder if the US government wants to keep us here forever,” the 37-year-old alNahdi wrote in a recent letter to his lawyers.

www.geopolitics.in

È NUMBER OF PRISONERS

TRANSFERRED (OBAMA): 68 (40 to 16 less developed countries) and 28 (to home countries).

È NUMBER OF PRISONERS

TRANSFERRED (BUSH): 532

If it was up to me, I would close Guantanamo. Not tomorrow, but this afternoon. I’d close it, […] And I would not let any of those people go […] I would simply move them to the United States and put them into our federal legal system.

— COLIN POWELL Former US Secretary of State

È COUNTRIES THAT ACCEPTED

GUANTANAMO DETAINEES: 50

È NUMBER OF PRISONERS

CLEARED FOR RELEASE: 156

È NUMBER OF PRISONERS WHO

DIED IN PRISON:

Five (under Bush), three (under Obama)

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I believe that prison at Guantanamo should be closed.

— BAN KI MOON UN Secretary General

February 2012

GEOPOLITICS

SPECIALREPORT

SECURING THE AIR In developing its “Integrated Air Command and Control System”, the Indian Air Force should share its assets with the digital networks of both the Army and Navy, argues SAURAV JHA

HE PAST few years have seen the Indian Air Force (IAF) moving forward with the process of becoming a truly network -centric force in order to further underpin its role as the primary defender of India’s airspace. The move towards network centricity has seen the IAF induct, as well as initiate the process of inducting a range of new platforms and ground-based systems sorely needed to meet the emerging airspace threats of the 21st century. Nevertheless, the threat scenario moving forward is elevated due to the fact that both Pakistan and China are qualitatively improving their fighter holdings and weapons besides introducing new ballistic and cruise missile capabilities. China’s modernisation, which is naturally more extensive than that of Pakistan, and the Chinese Airforce’s (CAF) creation of serious airbase infrastructure on the Tibetan plateau is of particular concern. Because for the first time in fifty years the IAF has to put serious thought and resources into defending India’s eastern skies over mostly mountainous terrain from a range of sophisticated threats including fourth-generation fighters equipped with precision-guided munitions (PGMs) and terrain hugging cruise missiles. This means that while the IAF will continue to modernise its air defence infrastructure vis-a-vis the PAF it must quickly set up similar networks in the North and the North-east. The IAF’s focus as alluded to above for the greater part of its history had been the PAF and it is for this reason that the IAF’s existing radar/ electronic warfare sites (EW ) and surface-to-air missile (SAM) www.geopolitics.in

sites are heavily oriented towards our western borders under a network of air defence direction centres (ADDC). This kind of sitting offered good protection to both high threat areas as well as ground force components near our western borders. However with the introduction of beyond visual range air-to-air missiles (BVRAAMs) and standoff anti-radiation weapons into the arsenals of both Pakistan and China it is clear that the old set -up is inadequate. Of course, SAM sites are not the primary defenders of Indian airspace. The IAF instead relies on its fleet of air superiority and interceptor aircraft for this role. As per the IAF’s AD doctrine SAMs essentially guard the approaches and areas where the primary defenders i.e combat aircraft are parked. This mode of defence falls under the purview of the IAF’s base Air Defence Zone (BADZ) concept which has been augmented over the years. SAMs are also tasked with guarding other vital points/vital areas (VA/VP) in our military and strategic estate, but the IAF in the past did not try to build up true area defence capabilities owing to specific priorities and limited resources. Instead the idea always was to quickly gain air superiority and nullify the enemy’s fighter force which in turn would result in good AD as a fait accompli. However, the changed threat scenario has meant that the IAF is now moving towards creating an integrated AD network by linking all assets and nodes via a wireless area network (WAN). The big step in this direction was taken with the launch of AF-NET in 2010 which replaces the IAF’s old communication network set-up using tropo-scatter technology

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from the 1950s. Under AF-NET all major the formations and static establishments have been linked through WAN and are accessible via data communication channels. Significantly, the nationwide programme was launched by the IAF in collaboration with private industry to link all field units using a dedicated satellite which is expected to be launched soon. AFNET incorporates the latest traffic transportation technology in the form of internet protocol (IP) packets over the network using multi protocol label switching (MPLS). A large voice over internet protocol (VoIP) layer with stringent quality of service enforcement will facilitate robust, high quality voice, video and conferencing solutions. Now the IAF’s emerging Integrated Air Command and Control System (IACCS), an automated command and control system for AD operations will ride the AFNET backbone integrating all ground-based and airborne sensors, AD weapon systems and C2 nodes. The IACCS will consist of ten major nodes with each node having ADDCs under it which in turn will be continuously connected with both Air Staff HQ and regional command HQs. These ten nodes will emerge out of the IAF’s drive to both introduce network capable systems at existing sites and set up new AD sites in light of the evolving threat picture in the north and the northeast from China and Pakistan. Importantly, the IACCS will also bring AD coverage to the Southern peninsula. The IACSS by 2015-17 will have under its purview a fully modernised fleet of early warning and electronic countermeasures (ECM) resistant radars. As of now, the IAF’s chief ground-based radar February 2012

g SPECIALREPORT

assets are the THD-1955, 36D6 and the P12/18 family and the indigenous INDRAII. While these legacy assets have served the IAF well, their age means that system frequencies have likely been gauged by India’s opponents who would have also developed relevant ECMs. Moreover though these systems have undergone some upgradations over the years aimed at enhancing their electronic counter countermeasures (ECCM) capabilities, their inherent upgradability itself is limited by the fact that they aren’t really digital or software defined As such, the IAF has begun to progressively induct contemporary jam-resistant radars with digital receiver and programmable signal processing. This means that the software defined back ends of these radars can re-programmed to keep ECCM capability up to date. The IAF is also introducing its first ground-based active arrays in the form of the Arudra MPR boasts advanced digital processing technologies such as digital beam forming and programmable signal processing to fully exploit the capabilities of its S-band solid state active aperture that can detect and track fighter-sized targets from more than 300 km away. The radar is also capable of both standalone and network-centric modes, although in the latter department Arudhra apparently offers extremely potent capabilities. Replacing the P12/18 family is DRDO’s Rohini 3D which has a range of around 150 kms for fightersized targets being designed for mobility and survivability and is mounted on two www.geopolitics.in

high mobility TATRA vehicles with the power unit being in a third TATRA that hosts 2 X 125 kva generators. LRDE claims that the entire set-up can be deployed or decamped in 30 minutes. Though a mechanically steered pulse Doppler array, the Rohini’s ECCM capability owing to its all-digital environment is noteworthy. The advent of a serious air threat from China has meant that the IAF has had to move much more quickly on filling gaps in India’s mountainous regions. This is being accomplished through the induction of a number of low-level light-weight transportable radars of both French and Indian origin. However, true situational awareness in mountainous areas cannot be achieved without deploying AWACS in numbers and this is exactly where the recently acquired IL-76-based PHALCONs are proving to be a game changer. The PHALCON’s EL/M-2075 radar can detect low radar cross section (RCS) targets amidst background clutter from hundreds of kilometres away, 24 x 7 and under all weather conditions. Its AESA technology allows it to achieve superior target discrimination in comparison to mechanically steered arrays and also makes it less susceptible to interception and jamming. For instance, track initiation by the EL/M-2075 is achieved in 2 to 4 seconds as opposed to the 20 to 40 seconds that is standard with legacy AWACS types sporting rotodomes housing mechanically steered arrays. Connected to the

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PHALCON via the BEL link-2, the IAF’s BVRAAM armed Su-30 MKIs can be reasonably expected to establish air superiority over South Asian skies in a relatively short period of time. The PHALCON in any case will be a key element in the IACCS’s cruise missile defence posture given its characteristics. At the moment, two more PHALCONs are on order from Israel, but it is clear that more will have to be brought in given the CAF’s growing posture vis-a-vis India. In the near future, the PHALCON will be supplemented by the DRDO’s ERJ-145 -based AEW&C which will operate in conjunction with the PHALCON. This indigenously-developed system centered around an S-band AESA is expected to deliver features such as high performance tracking and priority tracking with reference to fighter-sized targets. After the initial three unit order, up to 20 more examples of the type may be acquired by the IAF in the next decade and a half. The first of the three indigenous systems undertook its first flight recently. The IAF is also bringing more aerostats equipped with the EL/M-2083 radar which is reported to be a derivative of the ‘Green Pine’ missile defence radar used in the Arrow Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) system. The EL/M-2083 given its reported antecedents is probably an L-band phased-array radar capable of search, acquisition as well as fire-control. It can acquire and track targets at both “high” and “low” altitudes, identify targets such as cruise missiles and unmanned aerial February 2012

HEMANT RAWAT

THE ALL-SEEING EYE: The airborne radars of the AWACS aircraft are force multipliers and two more are on order from Israel

g SPECIALREPORT

DEFENSE.ROGALERIE

SHOOT TO KILL: The air-defence assets of the Army and the Air Force need to be networked to provide effective security to Indian skies

vehicles (UAVs) against background clutter. It also performs its scans electronically in both azimuth and elevation and does so out to a potential 500 km — a potential buy of up to a dozen such systems may be in the offing. The new EW network will of course be operated in conjunction with new generation SAM systems and their attendant acquisition and fire control radars. Till now the IAF’s primary medium range SAM has been the SA-3B Pechora which is to say the least long in the tooth — it neither has multi-target engagement capability and will probably fair too well in a modern ECM environment despite some back-end upgrades.. It is in this light the success of the Akash SAM assumes significance. The Akash of which 8 squadrons have been ordered by the IAF combines high mobility with the Rajendra phased array radar that allows simultaneous engagement of multiple targets including cruise missiles up to 25 kms away in a dense ECM environment. The IAF is also bringing in 18 SPYDER point defence systems which are static low level, quick reaction missile (LLQRM) units designed to neutralise hostile targets up to 15 km away, and at heights between 20 and 9000 metres. Essentially the SPYDER protects various assets from the threat of modern PGMs via its quick reaction and low RCS target engagement capabilities. Both the Akash and the SPYDER are all-weather 360 degree systems www.geopolitics.in

with very modern automated ECCM response mechanisms. Now while the Akash and SPYDER will essentially fulfil point defence needs, area defence requirements are likely to be met by the Indo-Israeli medium-range SAM (MRSAM) currently under development as part of a two-billion-dollar plus programme. Over 450 missiles and 18 firing units of the Barak-8-derived MRSAM with an envelope of 70 kms are likely to be inducted later in this decade. The MRSAM may also have some terminal engagement capability vis-a-vis tactical ballistic missiles. These new radars and SAM systems will certainly be excellent complements to the IAF’s fourth-generation fighter aircraft in defending against enemy fighters and cruise missiles. Indeed, the IAF’s large and growing fleet of Su-30 MKIs can themselves serve as mini-AEW&Cs to complement the larger dedicated systems. But the really noteworthy development is that the IACCS will create an environment where all these assets can seamlessly co-ordinate with each other by priortising and handing over threat management. Defending against ballistic missiles will of course mean adding some more dedicated systems to the IACCS. The lynchpin of India’s emerging ballistic missile defence network is the DRDO’s Green Pine-inspired long-range tracking radar (LRTR) that is claimed to be able to see

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basketball-sized targets up to 1500 kms away. Radars of this family will serve as the primary sensors for DRDO PAD and AAD class of ABM interceptor missiles. An initial able to defend against medium range-ballistic missiles may become operational around Delhi by 2014. Significantly, with the appearance of a number of long-ranged-guided rocket systems from the Chinese, defending IAF forward bases from ballistic attack may also be on the service’s s agenda. Indeed, a requirement of this nature may be behind the persistent rumours that India is looking to acquire the David’s Sling systems from Israel which can deal with tactical rockets with ranges between 40 and 300 km. In the next decade, one is likely to also see the MRSAM evolve into an SRSAM with a target engagement range exceeding 300kms. If this sees light then India would possess what can be termed as an offensive SAM system that will make life difficult for enemy fighters deep within their own airspace. Clearly, as the Indian economy continues to grow so do the ambitions associated with the IACCS. Nevertheless, the IACCS must actually serve as the primemover in integrating the emerging digital networks of both the Army and Navy because it is only then that the muchdesired jointness so crucial to thwarting a two front attack against India can be achieved. February 2012

geopolitics n

DEFENCE

DIPLOMACY

SECURITY

@geoindica

gONLOOKER Solid ties DEFENSE.GOV

BRITISH Foreign Minister William Hague was recently in Brazil as part of a swing through South America. As Falklands simmered on one side, Hague waxed eloquent on Britain’s ties with Latin America on the other. No surprise that there was no mention of Argentina. “We have now opened a

new chapter in this history. The days of our diplomatic retreat from your region are over. We have begun

Britain’s most ambitious effort to strengthen ties with Latin America in 200 years, since the days of Canning. We are cementing this commitment in bricks and mortar, re-opening our Embassy in El Salvador, a new consulate here in Brazil in Recife, and expanding our diplomatic staff across Latin America. British Ministers have made 37 visits to the continent in the first 18 months.

Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou—Kuomintang (KMT) or Nationalist Party — easily won his re-election defeating Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) with about 52 per cent of the votes Ma got as clear mandate. Ma contested on his promise of improving relations with the Mainland saying amity with China equalled stability whereas a DPP government would risk antagonising the dragon across the Strait. Meanwhile, for the same reason Tsai Ingwen vowed not to renege on the promises of coop-

Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamed, said, “I’m surprised that he was not found guilty. This shows that there was no government conspiracy against him before.” Supporters cheered and chanted: “Reformasi” and “Long live Anwar.” The 64-year-old opposition leader once the rising star of the ruling United Malays Nasional Organisation (UMNO) will now have to steer his Pakatan Rakyat coalition for the polls. Many believe that the decision could prevent a possible backlash against the UMNO at the polls. Anwar’s Pakatan Rakyat made historic inroads at the 2008 polls, winning five out of the country’s 13 federal states. UMNO, which lost its decades-long two-third parliamentary majority at that poll, has since recaptured control of one of those states, Perak.

eration with China. The main source of her criticism was that he is naive about relations with the Mainland. She chose to tread with caution about the issues regarding closer integration-like jobs in Taiwan to Chinese professionals. Ma’s triumph increased Chinese prospects and Beijing might force Ma to come to a political negotiation on the islands future. Far from stabilising the region Ma’s election might just bring in a new era of volatility in the region, with China intensifying its stand on Taiwan’s autonomy.

RICO SHEN

ANWARIBRAHIMBLOG.COM

www.geopolitics.in

THE supari (contract) killing of Iran’s nuclear scientists continues. No one knows who the masterminds are, although everyone knows who gains the most and who most likely are the contract killers. In the latest, a car bomb in Tehran killed nuclear scientist Mostafa

What will Ma do?

Finally Anwar is free of charges

ANWAR IBRAHIM is back on the centrestage of Malaysian politics. A not-guilty verdict in a sex scandal case against the country’s leading opposition leader could prove to be a game-changer in the run-up to elections due by 2013 that many believe could be preponed to later this year. Anwar who had called the charges “trumped-up and politicised”, told supporters outside the Kuala Lumpur court where he was acquitted of charges of sodomising a male party aide in 2008:”We must focus on the next general elections and the reform agenda. We hope for an independent judiciary and free media.” Sodomy is a criminal offence punishable by 20 years in prison in Malaysia, where Muslim citizens are subject to Sharia law. This was the second time Anwar faced these charges. Expressing surprise, former

The killing continues

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February 2012

O N L O O K E R others who paid with their lives for being part of the Iran Nuclear Establishment are: nuclear physicist Daryoush Rezaie ; Majid Shahriari of the nuclear engineering faculty at Shahid Beheshti University; Physics Professor Massoud Ali Mohammadi. Despite the most stringent security, the scientists are being picked off one by one and everyone wonders: who’s next?

Saudi Arabia’s Asian outreach that, if the United States does not need the Middle East for energy security, it will lose much of its motivation to meddle in the region, at least in the immense nation-destroying, budget-busting tradition of the Iraq wars.” As Saudi Arabia’s arguable largest customer, China accounts for almost one million barrels per day — a little less than a quarter of its requirement, China’s endless demand and Saudi Arabia’s oil and gas industry are literally made for each other. As Asia Times noted: “Wen’s visit highlights Saudi Arabia’s awkward 21st century transition from the world’s indispensable guarantor of hydrocarbon supply to anxious oil and gas partner to Asia’s surging economies. The centrepiece of Wen’s visit was the agreement for China to invest in an export refinery in Saudi Arabia at Yanbu.”

IT WAS Iranian President Ahmadinejad’s fifth visit to Venezuela and the first stop on a tour of the region that took him to Nicaragua, Cuba and Ecuador. Conspicuously missing from the trip were Argentina, Mexico, and Brazil, which together represent three quarters of Latin America’s nearly $4 trillion GDP. But that’s the see-saw manner of the Iranian strongman’s relationship swings. Just about a year ago, the then Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a Marxist-socialist, held Ahmadinejad in a burly embrace. He visited Tehran twice, offered them

imported enriched nuclear fuel against low-grade Iranian uranium and consolidated the relationship. But his successor Dilmah Rouseff, although a pucca protégé, has slowly but steadliy started pulling the bricks apart. Therefore, Brazil was out. But it was business as usual in Venezuela. Chavez, as usual, joked that he and Ahmadinejad were building nuclear weapons in the basement of his presidential palace. In Nicaragua, Ahmadinejad attended reelected President Daniel Ortega’s inauguration and in Cuba he met with Fidel Castro.

ANC is 100

DEFENSE.GOV

THE AFRICAN National Congress (ANC) was formed in 1912. 82 years later after a long and chequered struggle perhaps, the longest in the world, came freedom from apartheid and Nelson Mandela became President in 1994. As the it celebrates its centenary, there are plenty who believe that the “the Rainbow Nation” has a seamier side and that corruption and crime went hand in hand with the progress. As one commentator suggested, ”The ANC lost its beneficent aura, and, in some cases, its moral standing as a handful of high profile leaders became millionaires and more, while ‘black empowerment’ schemes were riddled with

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ALJAZEERA.COM

DOES SAUDI Arabia’s future lies in Asia? Observers believe that increasingly the most important nation in the Middle East realises that the sooner they can get into long-term strategic relationships in mainland Asia, the better for them. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao’s recent visit to Riyadh indicates that the reset button is being slowly pushed indeed. According to British Petroleum the United States will become almost self-sufficient in energy by 2030, thanks to exploitation of its shale oil and gas resources. Many view this as a development that will have huge “geopolitical implications”. As the Asia Times reported: “Specifically, the geopolitical implication is

Romping with Chavez

PRESIDENT.IR

Ahmadi Roshan in the middle of January — the latest in a string of attacks against such scientists in Iran. According to reports, the bomb was placed by a scooterist under Roshan’s car that detonated at Allameh Tabatai University. An oil industry university graduate, Roshan apparently headed a department at Natanz uranium enrichment facility in Isfahan province. Amongst the

nepotism and self-dealing as in the phrase that goes back to the apartheid days: “Let’s make a plan!” To its credit, much of the South African press tells it like it is. Some of this is reversible. Many activists demonstrate for reforms of what they call a “new apartheid”. The ANC’s traditions are still alive — although not always within the ANC. A new crusade against corruption, demagoguery and hypocrisy is needed. Hopefully, this anniversary can become a time of reflection. February 2012

geopolitics

BOEING

DEF BIZ

A WORTHY POSSESSION The FMS route is an effective way to urgently acquire military assets such as C-17 Globemaster

GEOPOLITICS

SPECIAL

SECURE OR INSECURE? The Ministry of Defence has floated a tender to get a foolproof system in place to secure the South Block. However, the tender does not make sense because of the inaccuracies and the obsolescence that it will bring into the system. A special report

t is very much understandable and agreed-upon fact that the safety and security of the Defence Organisation is of paramount importance and this could be achieved by installing the best-in-class detection and surveillance equipment, as well as by restricting the access of any unauthorised person. The efforts of the government had been to strengthen the safety and security of the defence installations including the Headquarters at the South Block. The notion behind the procurement seems to be very well in place but either due to the lack of awareness, knowledge or with a clear intent to mislead the procurement process to apparently benefit a few, the purpose of procurement and installation of Integrated Surveillance and Access Control Management (SACMS) is bound to get defeated with the kind of Request BESPOKE CONTRACT: The tender for the new security systems seems to be specifically created for a particular set of firms.

HC TIWARI

for Proposal (RFP) that has published for procurement. There will be a huge loss of public money as the requirement and specification that had been indicated in the RFP are neither meet the prevailing standards nor is it up to the mark to serve the very purpose intended with the installation of SACMS. Few of the parameters and requirements that have been indicated against the major equipment and gadgets envisaged to be procured in the RFP are very much company and product specific rather than being purpose specific. This shall restrict wider participation and better procurement. A detailed look at the RFP and the items envisaged to be procured under the SACMS outline the following rather clearly: 他 Closed circuit television cameras (CCTV ) system & video analytic software has been intended to be procured. Now a days CCTV systems integrated with thermal & fire detection capabilities are available in the market.

www.geopolitics.in

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February 2012

g SPECIAL

Being a very important feature, this has been incorporated in the RFP. “Intelligent Video Analytics” (IVA) having the capability of different types of advanced Video Motion/Non-Motion Detection (VMD/NMD) detection application optimised for outdoor security applications are available. Such system runs on any standard computer and can integrate and interfaces to analog and IP video from a range of manufacturers and technologies, including HD / mega pixel cameras. Such applications make the system capable of automatically detecting suspicious movements of objects or people in video and / or images from any camera in the network transforming, every camera into a sophisticated sensor. Even the algorithms are optimised for outdoor environments like harsh weather (- wind, snow, rain), extreme lighting conditions (direct sun or poor visibility), moving trees, natural habitation movement, sea waves, clouds, moving shadows, glare, differentiation between human & animal movement. The system can fuse and share data from several inputs in order to form a holistic analysis for a complete area / site (i.e. beyond a single camera). Systems with such facilities are available in the market but it does not find a place in the RFP. ¾ The above mentioned IVA & character recognition software features are used with the item at Sl. No. 18 for Under Vehicle Scanning system (UVSS) and Automated Number Plate Recognition System (ANPRS).These features do not find any mention in the specification in the published RFP. In absence of these features, the system won’t be fulfilling the requirement making it unreliable due to generation of false alarms by spurious signal. One shall be procuring obsolete technology equipment which would call for immediate replacement. ¾ It is well known fact that IRIS plays an important role in biometric detection systems. This doesn’t find any place in the RFP. ¾ With regard to Spike Barriers, Boom Barriers, Bollards, Turnstiles, the specification needs to have indicated the use of the non-corrosive steel --ISO 304 grade steel. Further to this there is no mention of its most important factor i.e. sturdiness, reliability, integration, www.geopolitics.in

anywhere in the RFP. ¾ Technical specification for even the Door Frame Metal Detector seems to be obsolete and does not comply with any International Standards. ¾ The Technical Specification of HandHeld Explosive Detector mentions “FAIMS (Focusing of Ions at Atmos-

THERE WILL BE A HUGE LOSS OF PUBLIC MONEY AS THE RFP DOES NOT MEET PREVAILING STANDARDS pheric Pressure in High-Field Asymmetric Waveform Ion Mobility Spectrometer) which is branch and brandspecific. Further this particular brand MO8, international standard explosive detector is available in multiple detection configuration i.e Explosive, Narcotics and Chemical Warfare(CW ). However the specification mentions about it being only for explosive detection. Equipment with the feature to detect Explosive, Narcotics and CW has been separately requested in the RFP. This indicates the limited knowledge being possessed by the specification maker. ¾ With regard to the Nuclear and Chemical Agent Detection Systems no single detector with the capability of detecting both nuclear and chemical agents is available in the market except for only one manufacturer -- M/s Bruker, Germany which is a real- time detector. Thus the specification is product-specific. ¾ The stated specification of Biological Agent Detection Systems does not classify the various classes of threats such as bacteria, spores, viruses, toxins that the equipment needs to detect. The specification again seems to be brandspecific, as there is only one manufacturer complying with this specification — ASAS Technology. ¾ Again the specification for the Explosive Detection System mentions the detector type i.e. “Ion Trap Mobility

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Spectrometer (ITMS)” which is brand specific. The number of explosives expected to be detected by this system is limited to “RDS, PETN, TNT, Semtex, Tetryl, NG, Nitrates, HMX” in the RFP specification, despite the well-known fact that the explosive detection systems with the capability to detect more than 40 types of explosives and narcotics are available from manufacturers of international repute. ¾ All these detection equipments are highly sensitive and unique in their role for the protection of facilities hence, a field trial or test reports confirming the detection of threats below IDLH (Immediate Danger to Life or Health) limits needs to be considered in procurement of these above equipment. In none of the specifications of the above-mentioned CBRN detection equipment is the compulsory matter of prime importance i.e. (IDLH) detection level been considered. ¾ It may also be noted that currently a field trial is being conducted by a team of experts from Indian Army, Indian Navy, Indian Air Force, Defence Research Development Establishment (DRDE) and Directorate General Quality Assurance (DGQA) for confirming the role/sensitivity of Chemical Warfare Agent Detection equipment. This equipment used for “Integrated Surveillance and Access Control Management System (SACMS) in buildings” needs to be tested by a team of Indian experts as per Indian conditions. ¾ Obsolete Electronic Fencing Management System as indicated has been envisaged in this RFP ignoring the availability of much better Tout Wire Fencing systems with better intrusion detection, and more reliability, better accuracy in finding the location of intrusion, with lesser false alarm rate with near about no maintenance being available in the market. These are more economical compared to electronic fencing. Such systems have been installed and are successfully functioning at various premier security & defence installations in many countries. The auction process is a big challenge because if you have to deliver a very highquality product the price will be an issue. If somebody is looking for a quality product he will look for FLIR only. We are bullish about Indian market. It is a challenging market… let’s see how we perform. February 2012

GEOPOLITICS

PERSPECTIVE

FMS AND OFFSET POLICY Buying military items through the United States government has both pluses and minuses. While the procurement process through this route can be very fast, there is no guarantee that the US vendor concerned will invest back in India as is the norm with India’s standard defence procurement procedure. Therefore, India should use this route for high-tech systems only, argues MRINAL SUMAN

AILURE TO procure major military equipment in an open, competitive environment has forced India to opt for government-to-government deals to fill critical gaps. With the improvement of relations with the US, a deal for Weapon Locating Radars was signed between the two countries in 2003. Since that trendsetting deal, India has adopted this route for a host of high-value procurements from the US, such as amphibious transport ship INS Jalashwa, P-8I maritime patrol aircraft, C-130J Hercules aircraft and C-17 Globemaster transport aircraft. The total value of all deals signed with the US government during the last decade is reportedly in excess of $12 billion and the shopping list is getting longer. A number of fresh procurement proposals are already at various stages of processing. These include M777 155mm Ultra Light Howitzers and Javelin antiwww.geopolitics.in

tank-guided missiles. The US government carries out all government-to-government deals under its Foreign Military Sales (FMS) procedure. Military hardware is sold to foreign governments at the rate at which these items had been purchased for the US forces, albeit with additional handling charges. On the other hand, India’s defence purchases are governed by the provisions of the Defence Procurement Procedure (DPP). As regards offsets, there is a considerable mismatch between FMS and DPP. Whereas the US government regards offsets as market-distorting and an impediment to its promotion of ‘free and fair’ trade, DPP mandates that all defence purchases from foreign sources where the estimated cost is $60 million or more will necessarily carry offset obligations. It is essential that the major issues of dissonance are identified and measures initiated to minimise their detrimental effect.

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US policy on offsets The US Defence Offsets Disclosure Act of 1999 describes offset as ‘the entire range of industrial and commercial benefits provided to foreign governments as an inducement or condition to purchase military goods or services, including benefits such as co-production, licensed production, subcontracting, technology transfer, incounty procurement, marketing and financial assistance and joint ventures’. Appreciating the fact that offsets have become an integral part of the world arms trade, the US realises that any unilateral stand against offsets would severely hinder the competitiveness of its defence industry in the global market. It has, therefore, decided to follow a hands-off approach — leaving companies to decide whether to engage in offsets or not. It implies that it is for the buyer-countries and the companies to negotiate offset contracts directly. The US government February 2012

g PERSPECTIVE SINGLE-WINDOW CLEARANCE: India must make use of FMS route in respect of high-tech systems, which are not available from multiple sources

PRO AIR FORCE

declines participation in offset matters. Furthermore, fearing job losses due to the placement of orders for sub-assemblies on the local vendors in the importing country at the cost of the original vendors in the US, the Congress decided to oversee the impact of offsets on the US defence industrial base. Consequently, a very exhaustive system has been put in place to compile data on offsets and to monitor them closely. All firms with more than $5 million offset liability are required to report to the Secretary of Commerce. The US Department of Commerce (Bureau of Industry and Security) submits annual report to the Congress. After detailed discussions with all stake holders, the US announced its defence offset policy in April 1990 and incorporated it into law with the Defence Production Act Amendments of 1992. It mandates: “No agency of the United States government shall encourage, enter directly into, or commit United States firms to any offset arrangement in connection with the sale of defense goods or services to foreign governments.” The FMS route is generally followed in respect of the items, which have already been inducted in the US forces. The item may either be supplied from its own existing stocks or procured afresh from the producer. There are three types of FMS cases. Defined Orders are meant for specific weapon systems, Blanket Orders are to cover follow-on support and Coopwww.geopolitics.in

erative Logistics Supply Support Arrangement enables a buyer nation to invest in the US Supply System with access to the US defence stocks. The buying government has to accept Standard Terms and Conditions as dictated by the US laws through a Letter of Acceptance (LoA) along with the initial advance. On receipt of a Letter of Request (LoR) from a foreign government, the US government processes the case. If the request is cleared, a Letter of Offer (LoO) is sent to the requesting government. Thereafter, the requesting government submits an LoA along with the initial advance. A contract is signed thereafter between the two governments. As offset obligations entail additional expenditure, recovery of offset expenditure by US companies became a sticky point. Earlier, limited recovery by a US company of the ‘administrative costs to administer specific requirements of its offset agreement’ was permitted by the Defence Federal Acquisition Regulation

INDIA'S DEFENCE PURCHASES ARE GOVERNED BY THE PROVISIONS OF THE DEFENCE PROCUREMENT PROCEDURE Supplement (DFARS). Subsequently, in May 1995, it was clarified that US contractors could recover ‘full cost necessary to implement an offset agreement’. The scope was further widened in 1999 when the companies were allowed to recover full ‘offset costs’. In consonance with its policy of nonintervention, the US government keeps itself out of all offset matters in FMS deals. Instead of mentioning offset overheads separately in the main contract, they are included in the cost of the first major fixed-price type line item for the primary defence system being procured. Offset contracts are signed between the customer country and the US company. They remain independent and totally unrelated

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to the main contract. Further, the US government assumes no responsibility or financial liability for unsatisfactory implementation of offset programmes. It is for the foreign buyer and the US company to sort the matters out mutually. India’s offset policy India’s offset policy is applicable to capital acquisitions categorised as ‘Buy (Global)’ and ‘Buy and Make with Transfer of Technology’. Defence Acquisition Council (DAC) may prescribe offset percentage higher than the standard 30 per cent or waive off the requirement completely in very special cases. Offset conditions form a part of Request for Proposals (RFP) and are binding. While responding to RFP, every foreign vendor is required to give an undertaking that it would meet specified offset obligations and that failure at any stage would disqualify the vendor from any further participation in the contract and render its offer as null and void. Foreign vendors can undertake approved offset programmes to earn and bank offset credits in anticipation of future obligations. The offset contract is signed simultaneously with the main contract and offset obligations have to be fulfilled coterminous with the period of the main contract. A vendor may, giving reasons, request re-phasing of the offset obligations within the period of the main contract. Director General (Acquisitions) may allow the request if the reasons are considered justified. Any request on exceptional grounds for extension of the period of the offset contract beyond the period of the main contract has to be examined by the Acquisition Wing and placed before the DAC for decision. The vendor cannot under any circumstances delay the execution of the main contract on the plea of failure of Indian industry to execute various offset contracts. If a vendor fails to fulfil the offset obligation in a particular year, a penalty equivalent to the unperformed offset obligation is levied. Five per cent of the value of the unfulfilled portion of the annual offset obligation is charged as penalty or recovered from the bank guarantee of the main contract, subject to replenishment, or deducted from the amount payable under the main contract, and the unfulfilled offset value is carried forward to the subsequent year. Any vendor failing to implement the full offset obligations during the period of the main contract, or during the period February 2012

g PERSPECTIVE

TOP DOWN KILL: The Javelin missile uses specific trajectory to hit the enemy at its most vulnerable

duly extended, is liable to be disqualified for participation in future defence contracts. The disqualification is decided by the acquisition wing after giving an opportunity to the vendor to explain the reasons. The provisions in the main contract regarding arbitration apply to the offset contract also. The offset contract is governed by and interpreted in accordance with the Indian laws. Areas of discordance Although the US government acknowledges linkages with offset obligations and charges offset costs in the main contract, it conveniently declines to assume any responsibility for the satisfactory implementation of offset programmes. India’s offset policy allows recovery of penalty imposed for non-fulfilment of offset obligations from the bank guarantee provided for the main contract or even through deduction from the amount payable under the main contract. FMS procedure does not permit such recoveries as payments under the man contract are transacted between the two governments and are totally independent of the performance of offset contract. Additionally, disqualification of the foreign company for future contracts for failure to fulfil its offset obligations means little. Whenever India desires defence equipment through FMS route, it has to approach the US government and cannot dictate its choice of the manufacturer. www.geopolitics.in

While India demands completion of offset obligations coterminous with the main contract, the US government may decide to supply the contracted defence equipment from its reserve stocks. In that case, time available may be too short to fulfil offset obligations and DAC will be required to grant special dispensation for extending offset schedule to well beyond the currency of the main contract. The Indian policy mandates that an unambiguous undertaking be given by a vendor at the time of responding to RFP that it would fulfill offset obligations. This provision becomes infructuous and extraneous as the US government’s LoO contains no reference to offsets. Provision regarding arbitration proceedings is another area of divergence. As per the Indian policy, the provisions in the main contract should apply to the offset contract also. However, this is not possible under FMS deals wherein the main contract is subject to the US laws. The way ahead India must make use of FMS route in respect of high-tech systems, which are not available from multiple sources and which do not require comparative trials. Complex weapon systems can be obtained fully integrated and configured with assured quality and performance. Further, having used the item in its own forces, the US government is in a better position to provide necessary logistic,

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RAYTHEON

training and exploitation support. At the same time, however, under FMS procedure, the US government disowns any responsibility for satisfactory discharge of offset obligations, leaving India with no leverage. India can neither force an errant vendor nor recover penalties for default. In other words, India is totally at the mercy of vendors’ earnestness. Unfortunately, India’s past experience in this regard has been disappointing. Without the threat of punitive action, most vendors play truant and renege on their offset commitments. Considering the fact that offsets do not come for free and carry substantial cost penalty, India must review its policy. Finally, India resorts to FMS route when it wants an item urgently. As stated earlier, the US government may either provide the item from its stocks or place fresh orders on the manufacturer. Even in the latter case, deliveries are always faster if the equipment incorporates government-furnished material, as government orders get priority. Therefore, India should consider FMS route to be akin to its Fast Track Procedure (FTP). In both cases, time is of essence. As FTP carries no offset liability, FMS deals should also be made offset-free to simplify the process and prevent emergence of potentially irksome disagreements. (A retired Major General, the author is an expert on defence acquisitions) February 2012

GEOPOLITICS

INTERVIEW

“WE ARE BULLISH ABOUT THE INDIAN MARKET” American multinational firm FLIR is in the business of turning night into day with its range of thermal imagers. ROHIT SRIVASTAVA spoke to TP SINGH, Country Manager, FLIR Systems, about the company’s plans in India

HC TIWARI

EAGLE EYES: TP Singh, Country Manager, FLIR Systems, says the company’s focus is on thermal-imaging cameras for electrical, mechanical and defence applications

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February 2012

g INTERVIEW

SNAKE EYES: FLIR has variety of thermal imagers to provide situational awareness for every possible requirement

About FLIR FLIR is an American company and globally we are a $1.5-billion group with 3000 employees worldwide. We decided to expand our operations to India about a year and a half back and now we are catering to our Indian customers directly. Our primary focus is on thermalimaging cameras for electrical, mechanical and defence applications.

depending upon the requirements of the customer. We have hand-held products which we recently introduced in the market. We also have a fixed-type installation which includes non-moving and Pan-Tilt-Zoom (PTZ) arrangements as well. We have systems which can detect a man 15 kilometres away in complete darkness. As we know, every object above 273 degrees Centigrade (absolute

On ownership of Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) Yes, the Intellectual Property Rights are with the American parent company. We are listed as Forward Looking Infra Red FLIR on the Nasdaq.

WE ARE THE LARGEST PLAYER GLOBALLY AND WE WISH TO BE THE SAME IN INDIA AS WELL

On product design All our products are self-designed and self-produced. We have our own manufacturing plants in Sweden, France, Estonia and the United States. In India, all our production is done by our local teams — starting from the production of the detectors to the complete assembly of products including the software — everything is done by our teams locally. On research and development We do not conduct Research and Development in India but it is conducted in the USA, Sweden and France. The India operation caters to the customers locally. On product details We have different types of products www.geopolitics.in

zero) emits infrared radiation. The purpose of our camera is to detect this radiation and display images. Our IP-based cameras are just plug-and-play and can be integrated in any system. On tropicalisation of FLIR products Our cameras are of two types — either cooled and uncooled. The uncooled types are quite well-known and in fact we have not had a problem as far as Indian climate is concerned. FLIR equipment comes with a two-year warranty and till now we have not faced a single

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major problem in respect to the quality of product or its functionality. Our customers are spread all across India and they have not had any problems. On market share We have a large chunk of the market share in case of the global market. We have entered the Indian market recently and we are planning our own service center in Delhi to support Indian customers. I believe the Indian market is expanding but I wouldn’t call it a mature market for thermal-imaging cameras. It is very difficult to just quantify what our market share is but globally we are the largest player and we wish to be the same in India as well. On major Indian orders We have a good customer base in India and our instruments will be installed at the border. I believe competition is always good and it helps us perform better. If the quality of your product is good and you are offering it at the right price, then you need not fear competition. I believe FLIR offers the best quality so, competition is not a problem. On the open bid The auction process is a big challenge because if you have to deliver a very high-quality product the price will be an issue. If somebody is looking for a quality product he will look for FLIR only. We are bullish about Indian market. It is a challenging market… let’s see how we perform. February 2012

DEF BIZ ANDHRA PRADESH LURES DEFENCE PSUS

LIGHTNING STRIKES AT NIGHT THE FIRST night flight of the Lockheed Martin F-35 Program was on January 19 at Edwards Air Force Base, California. Piloted by Lockheed Martin Test Pilot Mark Ward, AF-6, an F-35A Lightning II conventional takeoff and landing (CTOL) variant, launched at 5:05 p.m. PST and landed after sunset at 6:22 p.m. The mission consisted of a series of straight in approaches in twilight and darkness. The pilot also performed an evaluation of the F-35's cockpit lighting which Ward called, "the best he's ever seen". The

LOCKHEED MARTIN

THE DEFENCE public sector undertakings (DPSUs) are flocking towards Andhra Pradesh to make investments for their new manufacturing facilities. Leading this flock is Bharat Dynamics Limited (BDL), with one project at Anantapur, two in Chittoor and another project at Ranga Reddy districts to manufacture missiles, followed by Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) with a helicopter plant, Bharat Electronics Ltd and Nuclear Power Corporation India Ltd for nuclear reactors. The stateowned Andhra Pradesh Industrial Investment Corporation has received 32 acres of land for the BDL project at Ibrahimpatnam in Ranga Reddy district to be established with ` 500 crore. Similarly, the state government is working towards arranging 630 acres of land at Anantapur and 411 acres at Chittoor districts for BDL. HAL is planning a greenfield project to manufacture, repair and overhaul its upcoming helicopter orders. The facility will manufacture the helicopters in the 3 to 12 tonne range. The total expected investment in this project is around `4000 crore.

testing will clear the way for night refueling and formation testing later this year.

NEW AUTO BATTLEGROUND: MILITARY VEHICLES THE INDIAN Army’s modernisation programmes are having an unexpected impact on the automotive business industry. In the recently-concluded auto expo in New Delhi, defence vehicles from the auto majors were the talk of the town. The `2,500-crore defence vehicle market has seen new players like Asia Motor Works (AMW) jostling along with market leaders like Mahindra and Mahindra, Tata Motors and Ashok Leyland. In 2012, the Indian Army is planning to buy 1,400 light armoured vehicles, 1,200 light protected patrol vehicles and 1,600 infantry mobility vehicles amounting

to `2500 crore. According to Ashish Chandra, the marketing head of AMW’s defence vehicles division: “For the next five years demand from the defence sector will be steady. It may even increase.” The Indian Army operates around 65,000 Stallion trucks made by Ashok Leyland and 25,000 Tata Motors vehicles. Mahindra has a line of specially-designed protective vehicles including BAE’s mine-protected vehicles, which is manufactured at its Faridabad plant. The Indian auto majors are also competing for the much-awaited future infantry combat vehicle.

BAE SYSTEMS

LEADERSHIP CHANGE AT BAE SYSTEMS

www.geopolitics.in

BAE SYSTEMS has announced the appointment of Dean McCumiskey as Managing Director and Chief Executive of its India operations with effect from March 2012. McCumiskey is currently Group Chief Information Officer based in the company’s London headquarters and will succeed Andrew Gallagher who takes up new responsibilities as BAE Systems’ Director of Audit, based in the United Kingdom. McCumiskey will be responsible for leading the next phase of BAE Systems’ business development in India, where

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the defence, aerospace and security company directly employs around 100 people and has a growing presence through strategic investments in technology sharing and industrial partnerships. Commenting on his new role, ahead of moving to New Delhi, McCumiskey said: “We have built a solid foundation in India and I look forward to broadening and deepening our involvement in the country’s growing defence and security industry in partnership with world-class Indian companies such as Mahindra & Mahindra and HAL.” February 2012

GEOPOLITICS

DEFBIZ

ARMY PRO

TOP SHOT: Self-sufficiency in production of small arms is an imperative for India if it aspires to become a major player in world affairs

SMALL AND LETHAL

Indigenous self-sufficiency in production of small but quality arms is an imperative for India as it aspires to become a major player in world affairs, writes ROHIT SINGH

HE TERM ‘Small Arms’ traditionally includes weapons such as revolvers, pistols, carbine machine guns, assault rifles and light machine guns. As per an estimate by the Small Arms Survey, there are nearly 875 million small arms in circulation worldwide, produced by 1000 companies in 100 countries of the world. The annual authorised trade in small arms exceeds $6 billion. On the other hand, there is no definite estimate available on the volume of illicit trade in small arms. However, the numbers are fairly substantial, given the demand of small arms among terrorist organisations, drug cartels and criminal groups across the world. Seized or captured weapons from authorised producers form a considerable chunk of small arms trafficked by gun runners in the international black market. Also, production of locally-made small arms has been a cottage industry in the www.geopolitics.in

Af-Pak region and numerous African countries plagued with the menace of internecine conflict for several decades now. Despite several measures adopted by the United Nations, the illicit trade in small arms continues to facilitate violence and acts of terrorism across the world. The danger to world peace posed by global terrorism, possibilities of conventional conflicts, insurgencies and skirmishes between nation states augment the need for small arm weapon systems. Increased activities of drug cartels, mafia and criminal groups and incidents of crime also make it an imperative weapon in the hands of police and other lawenforcement agencies. Police and paramilitary forces are often forced to use small arms to control incidents of largescale arson, rioting, vandalism and mob violence. Therefore, even in the 21st century, as the threat of global terrorism looms large and there is an increased

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internal conflict due to political, social and economic flux, the demand and production of small arms will continue to increase proportionally. Indian context India faces complex external and internal security threats and new challenges are constantly emerging on the horizon. Unresolved territorial disputes with China and Pakistan, insurgencies in Jammu and Kashmir and the North-Eastern states, the rising tide of left wing extremism (LWE) in central India and the growing spectre of urban terrorism have vitiated India’s security environment and slowed down socio-economic growth. Emerging challenges include those on the energy and water-security fronts and the possibility of mass migrations from across India’s borders. Another key threat is that of the continuing proliferation of small arms and light weapons (SALW ) February 2012

g DEFBIZ due to illicit trade. The easy availability of SALW has added fuel to India’s internal security challenges, making them difficult to root out on a sustained basis. Going by the number of incidents of violence in the insurgency and terrorism afflicted regions across the world, it can be concluded that over the last two years South Asia (4857 and 4196 terrorist attacks in 2009 and 2010, respectively) has replaced West Asia (Middle East) plus Iran (3297 and 2545 in 2009 and 2010, respectively) as the most unstable region in the world. Together, these attacks constituted 77.5 per cent of the total attacks across the world in the year 2010. Post 9/11, the Af-Pak region in India’s immediate neighbourhood has become the crucible of terror and the fountainhead of the illegal flow of small arms, which needs to be arrested. Small arms production in India According to R Hariharan, a former Military Intelligence Officer, “There are around 630 million small arms in the world, out of which only about 226 million pieces are in the hands of armed forces and law enforcing agencies…” India, with a small arms arsenal estimated at 6.3 million, is sixth in the global ranking. A total of 164,000 small arms are produced annually by Indian ordnance factories. This includes 90,000 pieces of 5.56 INSAS rifles produced by the ordnance factory, Ishapore. The annual value of small arms and ammunition exports from India was reported to be $12,851,459 in 2009. The defence forces of India are reported to have 5,704,000 firearms. Police in India are reported to have 3,003,226 firearms). In a comparison of the world’s major/mid-level/minor/ unknown small arms exporters, India is categorised as ‘minor’.

arms and light weapons. India has 39 ordnance factories which are governmentowned and eight defence public sector undertakings (DPSUs). Limited manufacture of small arms is permitted by private sector companies, mainly single and double barrel shotguns, air rifles and air pistols but under very stringent conditions. Besides the INSAS 5.56mm assault rifle, Indian ordnance factories manufacture the following weapons: Â Â Â Â Â Â

Light Machine Gun (LMG) 5.56 mm Rifle 5.56 mm Carbine 5.56 mm “AMOGH” Carbine 9 mm MAG 7.62mm with mounting tripod Revolver 0.32”

In fact, the production capacity of ordnance factories is not sufficient to meet the requirements of all the security forces. Also, their range is rather limited. A large number of central police and para-military forces (CPMFs) battalions have been raised recently to counter the growing menace of LWE and most of these are facing a shortage of SALW as domestic production is inadequate, according to an India

Today report. The CPMFs (BSF and CRPF in particular and ITBP, CISF and others to a lesser extent) have each been raising 10 to 12 additional battalions annually. Each of these battalions requires approximately 1,000 personal weapons (7.62mm SLR or 5.56mm INSAS), besides crew-served weapons such as LMGs, rocket launchers and automatic grenade launchers. Indigenous production figures are inadequate to meet the requirements of the Army as well as the CPMFs. Import and export of small arms India is a leading buyer of conventional arms. Between 1999 and 2006, India totaled $22.4 billion in arms sales agreements, according to a 2007 report

Procurement of small arms SALW for armed forces and the police as well for civilian use are primarily manufactured by Indian ordnance factories controlled by the Ministry of Defence (MoD). These factories are engaged in manufacture of all categories of small GALLERY OF GUNS: Indian security forces use a multitude of small arms across the board www.geopolitics.in

HEMANT RAWAT

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February 2012

g DEFBIZ by the US Congressional Research Service. That total made India first among all developing arms buyers during that period. However, India’s defence exports constitute less than 2 per cent of the total production of weapons and equipment and were estimated at $191 million in the year 2008-09. Since 1950, arms exports by India have roughly been estimated to be around $312 million, according to a Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). India has exported small arms to the following countries: Bangladesh, Bhutan, Ecuador, Ghana, Guinea Bissau, Indonesia, Maldives,

Mauritius, Myanmar, Namibia, Nepal, Seychelles, Singapore, South Africa and Sri Lanka. Most of India’s exports are “mainly production surplus SALW that have been supplied to some of India’s neighbours as a goodwill gesture”. However, with new Defence Procurement Procedures (DPP) and the new Defence Production Policy being implemented vigorously, these are expected to rise exponentially by 2020-25. The new policies are encouraging the formation of joint ventures with 26 per cent of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI, likely to go up to 49 per cent) which will result in greater exports as multinational companies begin to use their Indian joint venture as hubs for outsourcing weapons and equipment components. Present scenario Small arms will continue to be the first and the most primary form of defensive weapon for security forces to counter emerging conventional and sub-conventional threats in the emerging security paradigm. In the Indian context, the continuing threat posed by our adversaries in the North and the West would continue to be a major challenge for the armed forces. As the Indian Army raises new fighting formations to counter the threat in the North, it would require an increase in the production of small arms. The challenges posed by insurgencies in J&K and the North-East and the raising of additional battalions of Central Police Forces (CPFs) to counter the Naxalite threat would impose a further burden on small-arms production. In the past, the standard issue assault rifles of the Indian Army and CPFs were largely found inadequate against the terrorists and insurgents. The single round fired by the SLR was no match when pitted against the automatic bursts of AK series rifles used by insurgents in the NorthEast, Sri Lanka and later in J&K.

www.geopolitics.in

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Emergency purchases, mainly from the erstwhile countries of the Soviet Union, were resorted to equip infantry battalions engaged in counter-insurgency operations. Later, the Indian ordnance factories began manufacturing an Indian variant of the AK-47 rifle. Today, the 5.56 INSAS rifle manufactured by the ordnance factory in Ishapore has been adopted as the standard issue assault rifle for the Indian Army and major central police organisations. However, the infantry is not fully satisfied with the INSAS rifle and has expressed an interest to procure a single assault rifle with inter-changeable bore (inter-changeable with both 5.56 and 7.62 calibre rounds) to replace the present standard issue. The 5.56 mm ammunition round of the INSAS rifle was not found lethal enough to impose fatal casualties to terrorists. The ammunition was designed to slowly inflict wounds on a soldier in conventional conflict to increase the manpower strain in evacuating casualties for the enemy. The Defence Research Development Organisation (DRDO) did improve the lethality of the ammunition but the infantry, as part of its F-INSAS programme, envisages a need for a single assault rifle for both conventional and sub-conventional conflicts. This requirement would necessitate a major small arms import. Whether such a major overhaul is required is a different matter of debate altogether. But, indigenous self-sufficiency in production of small arms is an imperative for India if it aspires to become a major player in world affairs. Imports of small arms and ammunition could be crippled in times of conflict or due to sanctions. The present capacity of Indian ordnance factories should be enhanced to meet the requirement of security forces. An indigenously manufactured standard issue rifle for the Indian armed forces and CPFs is a better bet than the constant reliance on imports. The Army and DRDO should sit together and arrive at a common meeting ground for the speedy manufacture of a robust assault rifle rather than constantly replacing the standard issue. A one-time transfer of technology and subsequent indigenous production of a small arms system may be the answer for the time being. (The author is an Associate Fellow at the Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS), New Delhi) February 2012

GEOPOLITICS

SPOTLIGHT

‘KAVERI ENGINE ACHIEVED MOST OF THE SET OBJECTIVES’ A S Rao, Chief Controller, Research and Development (Aero), the man responsible for the Kaveri project, spells out the state of one of the country’s most long-drawn indigenous defence ventures, in this interview with ROHIT SRIVASTAVA What has the flight test of Kaveri achieved? We have conducted test of Kaveri engine on the IL 76 as flying test bed at the Gromov Flight Research Institute, Russia, for www.geopolitics.in

57 hours. In our evaluation of the test data we have found that the Kaveri engine has achieved most of the set objectives. The engine programme is going

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through its final phase of development and it has completed 57 hours of flight test. The Kaveri was tested at different altitudes for power take off, bleed, chop and slam. An indigenously developed full February 2012

g SPOTLIGHT that is proposed to be used in the LCA Mk2 is having a thrust of about 90 kN. At present, the GE F404 engine is being used in LCA Mk1. A fighter aircraft has a life of 6000 hours and the GE F404 has a life of 2000 hours. Snecma and DRDO propose to develop an engine of 90 kN thrust class with state-of-the-art technology. After development, this can replace the GE-F404 engine in LCA-Mk1. The Navy LCA can also use the Snecma Kaveri engine.

DRDO

MAN AND MACHINE: (Above) AS Rao the man responsible for the Kaveri project and (left) the Kaveri engine that has been in the making for over twenty years

DRDO

authority digital control system was used during the flight test. We have come across problems in the fan and low-pressure turbine of the engine. To overcome these problems we have proposed an extension of the programme for the Kaveri. In this, we are proposing 100 hours of flight tests, in which 50 hours will be on the LCA Tejas or any other fighter aircraft. The proposal will be sent to the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) very soon. Once we receive the required approval, we will take off immediately. In this programme, we will be integrating Kaveri on the LCA (PV1) or any other fighter aircraft. The engine and the aircraft will both undergo modifications to complement each other. The flight test www.geopolitics.in

will be finally carried out after the required adaptation in the engine. This will be the final objective of the programme. In 1989, when the specifications were given to the Defence Research Development Organisation (DRDO) for the development of the Kaveri engine, the thrust requirement was 80 kN at sea-level with afterburner. Till now, the Kaveri is giving an output of 70 kN. Meanwhile the LCA's weight has gone up. The GE 414 engine

What is the reason for the delay in development of the Kaveri engine? A modern jet engine is a complex system typically with 20,000 parts and it's obviously a difficult machine to manufacture. Even China has not been able to develop a qualified engine so far. The engine works on a thermodynamic cycle involving very high temperatures. The maximum temperature in the Kaveri at its turbine inlet reaches around 1700 K. The state-of-theart engine functions at 1850 K. Increasing the engine temperature by 150 K is a huge task and requires state-of- the-art materials and process technologies. There are three things which elevate the thrust of any engine. The first is material that can withstand the high temperature and high pressure prevalent in the engine. High-strength alloys with better creep and fatigue properties do the trick. The second is the turbine-blade coating technology. Only a few nations have developed this technology. Finally, it is the film cooling by air. Film cooling is a system by which the engine is cooled by a small capillary system designed in the turbine blades of the engine. This system does not allow the temperature to reach

Kaveri Engineâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;Salient Features Air mass flow

78 kg/s

By-pass ratio

0.2-0.24

Overall pressure ratio

21.5

Turbine entry temperature (flat-rated)

1487-1700 K

Maximum thrust (dry)-IRA, SL

52 kN

Maximum thrust with afterburner-IRA, SL

81 kN

SFC (dry)

0.78 kg/h/kg

Maximum SFC with afterburner

2.03 kg/h/kg

Thrust/weight ratio

7.8

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February 2012

g DEFBIZ

DRDO

THE HEART OF THE BEAST: The Kaveri on the IL-76 flying test bed and (right) Tejas the aircraft for which it was originally designed

beyond a point where the blades of the engine will get deformed. To overcome the structural limitation at high temperature, we are planning to go into the latest in the engine technology i.e. the Single Crystal Technology (SCT). In this technology, the blades of the engine are made up of a single crystal where there is no grain boundary and the crystal is oriented in the radial direction. At present, the DRDO is using directionally-solidified blades. The core and casting process are very critical. One of our labs, the Defence Metallurgy Research Laboratory (DMRL) is working on the development of this SCT, but we are not using the advanced materials for development of this technology. We have a plan to develop advance materials for this purpose. How is the the joint venture with Snecma for the Kaveri engine progressing? The French major Snecma has agreed to give advanced material, data, equipment, training, and technology transfer for the Single Crystal Blade Casting. They have also agreed to give us the Electron Beam Plasma Vapour deposition coating (EBPVD) technology. This coating will protect the metal from reaching the temperature where the structures get deformed. Advanced film cooling technology also will be given by Snecma. Another critical technology is called the bladed disc (BLISK) technology. In this technology, the blades and the disc of the engine will be machined out of a single forging. In addition, technology for Powder Metal Disk will be transwww.geopolitics.in

PIB

ferred to India. A 25,000-tonne isothermal forging press is required to manufacture this disk. At present we don't have this press in India. This press also needs to be imported. We would also be working on the advanced welding technology. The advanced welding technology helps in better joints which has positive effect over the functioning and life of the engine with advanced material. Some of the advanced welding technologies are the inertia welding, laser welding, electron beam welding, etc. These technologies will be given by Snecma. In principle, we have agreed to codevelop the engine in a work share mode with Snecma. All of these technologies will be passed on to us. They will give us the know-how and knowwhy along with the design tools, database and software. The finalisation of the contract will take a few more months and thereafter, it will go to the CCS for its approval. The time line for the engine development will be five years and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) will be the production agency. We have been working on the engine development project for almost 20 years and we have the experience and expertise to absorb the technologies. We have sufficiently skilled manpower.

full engines and 4 Kabini engines.

Why did we go for the Kabini core engine? Some failures were occurring in the Kaveri engine, so we manufactured the core engine for testing. We are now working with six engines. We have launched 9

What is the time line and the specification of the K10 engine development? In joint collaboration with Snecma, the K10 engine development will take five years. This is a 90kN thrust-class engine with a thrust-to-weight ratio greater than 8.5.

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The weight of the engine has come for a lot of criticism. Why? We have to reduce the weight, but right now we are not going for this. The immediate aim is to demonstrate the capability with reference to performance. We have done 82 hours of simulated high-altitude testing. Can you tell us about the marine version of Kaveri? It is basically the same engine but made up of corrosion-resistant material. The life of this engine is around 15,000 hours between the overhauls. All materials and thermodynamics of the engine will have to be changed. The engine has to give power output of 12 MW. The only difference between an aero engine and marine engine is that the marine engine has a power generator but does not have an afterburner. What are the chances of using Kaveri for drones being developed by DRDO? If it is desired it can be used for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). It can also be used for trains, but with modifications like the marine engine. The Railways want 6 MW and 1.5 MW in combination to power trains. The Kaveri cannot be adopted for this.

February 2012

E F E N C E

I P L O M A C Y

E C U R I T Y

g geopolitics Our readership is, to simply put it, Fortune 500; DIPLOMATS POLICY MAKERS CAPTAINS OF INDUSTRY GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS WORLD BODIES THE EURO CRISIS: IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA

geopolitics VOL II, ISSUE VII, DECEMBER 2011 `100

DEFENCE DIPLOMACY SECURITY

TH KHAN N IMRA PACT IM

RESURRECTING

THE BOFORS GUNS THE F-35

CHALLENGING PROSPECTS

TUNNEL OF PRIDE

An engineering marvel, the Rohtang Tunnel has great strategic significance

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GEOPOLITICS

Pune cops undergo NSG training

NUMBERSGAME

Tunnels planned on Pak, China borders

Âstretches of land in close proximity to the Pakistan and INDIA IS planning to build the tunnels on strategic

China borders. These all-weather tunnels will go a long way towards providing better connectivity for the local inhabitants of the region. In addition, the tunnels will also help in the rapid deployment of forces and material in times of war. Uttarakhand will be one of the states where the massive infrastructure projects will be undertaken. The Border Road Organisation (BRO) would be the agency responsible for the development of most of these projects. Studies are on to assess the viability of three other projects: the Zojila and Z Morh tunnels in Jammu and Kashmir and the Rudraprayag project in Uttarakhand. Another nine projects are on the anvil in Jammu and Kashmir, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh.

Âing programme the Pune policeAS A part of an anti-terror train-

ITBP

490

French missiles for India

ROHIT SRIVASTAVA

THE INDIANS were arrested in Pakistan for crossing the border. Of these 183, 179 were fishermen who had crossed the international maritime boundary. According to Justice Nasir Aslam Zahid, the chairman of Pakistan government’s Committee for Welfare of Prisoners, 276 Indian fishermen are still in jail in Pakistan after the release of this lot. Many of the fisherfolk, who are largely from Gujarat, said they had spent nearly a year in prison.

www.geopolitics.in

7,000

US troops to be withdrawn

ARMY.MIL

ALAIWAH.FILES.WORDPRESS.COM

183

Indians released by Pak

BRO

men completed their meticulous instruction according to the strictures of the National Security Guard (NSG). These cops form part of the quick response team (QRT) of the Pune Police that was formed in the aftermath of the 26/11 attacks in Mumbai. The officers have been trained on weapons such as Glock pistols, MP5 submachine guns and AK-47 assault rifles. The QRT teams of the Pune Police have been equipped with Scorpio SUVs, four light vans, bullet-proof vehicles and bullet-proof jackets.

ÂPanetta announced that the US Defence Secretary Leon

THE `6,600-crore deal to equip

Âthe Mirage-2000 with the mis-

siles was cleared by the Union Cabinet. The contract for the deal for the fire-and-forget MICA with French armament major MBDA was cleared by the Cabinet Committee on Security chaired by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. This follows the `10,947-crore programme finalised in July, 2010 for the upgrade of the Mirage-2000 fighters.

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troops, who would make up two brigade combat teams, would be withdrawn from Europe. The move is part of a 10-year defence strategy that President Barack Obama presented on January 5. Panetta, however, added that in spite of the withdrawal of the two brigade combat teams, rotational units would still maintain strong military presence in the region.

February 2012

g 2500

NUMBERSGAME

444

BSF constables inducted

Âjoined the Border THE RECRUITS

BSF

Security Force (BSF) after finishing 38 weeks of instruction in a passing-out parade ceremony in Humhama, on the outskirts of Srinagar. Thus far the BSF has trained 11,452 recruits since its setting up in 1965. It is one of the world’s largest border patrol forces with 186 battalions made up of 240,000 troops. Over 1881 Kashmiri youth have joined the BSF.

lakh fake notes nabbed A JOINT Âraid con-

ducted by the Border Security Force (BSF), National Investigating Agency (NIA) and Special Task Force of CID Criminal Investigation Department has led to a huge arms seizure in the border town of Malda in West Bengal. The investigators also recovered over `2 lakh in fake Indian currency notes (FICN) apart from the arms and ammunition. In fact, it was while investigating the fake currency racket that the NIA got wind of the arms racket.

ÂKT Parnaik, the General

ACCORDING TO Lt Gen

Officer Commanding-inChief, Northern Command, 2,500 militants were being trained in camps in PakistanAdministered Kashmir. Parnaik added that there was a difference between the number of militants at launching pads and those being trained in camps. According to him, up to 300 militants were waiting to sneak into Indian territory from the launching pads. The number of militants at launching pads keeps fluctuating and more attempts are made with snowfall in the upper reaches.

4,000

Cartridges recovered from train

KARNAL POLICE found 4,000 live cartridges stuffed in eight parcels from Malwa Express. A case under the Arms Act has been registered at Ambala police station. According to the investigators, the shipment could have been meant for use during the upcoming Uttar Pradesh assembly polls. Forged documents were reportedly used to make the shipment which was detected through metal and explosive detectors.

124

Militants being trained in AJK

150

Crore extorted in 4 years

ÂInvestigation Agency (NIA),

ACCORDING TO the National

banned terror outfit United National Liberation Front (UNLF) acquired `150 crore between 2007 and 2010 through extortion. The extortion figures were revealed in a probe conducted by the NIA in the North-Eastern state of Manipur. Apart from the UNLF, many other terror outfits are also involved in the extortion racket in the state. The income from extortion is used by the terror outfits to finance illegal activities like the procurement of arms and ammunition.

Army men awarded in J&K

Âgallantry and distinguished service awards at

HEMANT RAWAT

THE SERVING Army troops were accorded

www.geopolitics.in

the Army Day function on January 15 in Jammu and Kashmir. Northern Command Chief Lt Gen KT Patnaik presented the soldiers with the awards: 63 of the awards were Sena Medals while there were four Sena Medals for distinguished services and four Vishist Seva Medals.

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February 2012

PERISCOPE

GEOPOLITICS

Nuclear weapons only for strategic deterrence PAKISTAN’S contin TERMING uing veiled threats of using tac-

THE PUBLIC Accounts Committee (PAC) of the Parliament has slammed the Army for “denying

HC TIWARI

tical nuclear missiles in the battlefield to deter Indian forces as “foolish”, Army Chief General V K Singh said on the sidelines of Army Day, “Let’s be quite clear on it... Nuclear weapons are not for war-fighting. They have got a strategic significance and that is where it should end.” Asked about reports that both Pakistan and China were fast bolstering their nuclear arsenals, General Singh said, “I and my Army are not bothered about who has nuclear weapons. We have our task cut out and we will progress along that.”

Army slammed for denying CAG access to canteens access” to auditors to look into the accounts of the Unit Run Canteens (URCs) which have an annual turnover of over `8,500 crore, ignoring Defence Ministry’s directions in this regard. There are 3,600 URCs in the country which are the retail sellers of consumer goods provided to them by the Canteen Stores Department (CSD). The Comptroller and Auditor General has been seeking to audit accounts of the URCs on grounds that the CSD transfers money from the Consolidated Fund of India in the form of qualitative discounts. This has been opposed by the armed forces claiming that URCs are run by non-public funds.

Military ties with India a priority for US THE US has said that its “strong” military ties with India are growing and a series of joint exercises between them are unlikely to be hit by the massive defence budgetary

HEMANT RAWAT

Army for integrated Joint Doctrines

www.geopolitics.in

Army losing more men to landmines than war IT SEEMS that the Indian Army is los ing more personnel during peace times while clearing landmines than in any war. The Army has lost 411 men since it began large-scale mine-clearing operations along the Pakistan border. As many as 382 armed personnel have also been injured in the process, according to a report in the Mumbai-based DNA newspaper. An international landmine expert believes that these mind-boggling casualties were also due to the Defence Ministry’s stubborn refusal to take any expert help while excavating the mines. Yeshua Moser-Puangsuwan, Asia regional research coordinator for the International Campaign to Ban Landmines, the paper wrote, believes that the Indian Army was not following standard operating procedures (SOPs) and international practices while forcing soldiers to clear mines. According to him, casualties in the Indian Army were comparably more than in any war-torn country such as Angola, Mozambique, Bosnia or Croatia. He said over the past few years, more cases of soldiers falling in the trap of landmines were reported from India.

DEFENSE.GOV

THE INDIAN Army is riding on a vision that is aimed at becoming a highly-motivated, modernised, optimally-equipped and operationally-ready force, if the Chief of the Army Staff General V K Singh is to be believed. Swearing by the transformation of his forces through a re-organisation with stronger military values and traditions, better training and an outlook loaded with the best practices for the future, General Singh, in an interview to Sainik Samachar, has said that the three Services had gone a long way towards achieving ‘jointness’ in various operational, training and administrative fields.

ARMY.MIL

cuts announced recently. “I can tell you that the US-India relationship is a priority for the US Government and for the US Department of Defence because a strong bilateral partnership is in the United States’ interests and benefits both countries,” Cmdr Leslie Hull-Ryde, a US defence department spokeswoman, told PTI news agency. Hull-Ryde was responding to questions on India-US defence relationship in the aftermath of the latest defence strategic document of the Pentagon, which says that the United States is investing in a long-term strategic partnership with India.

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February 2012

GEOPOLITICS

DRDO plans `500-cr unmanned vehicle

Slimmer Saras to fly by year-end

`500-cr unmanned ground vehicle (UGV) programme that seeks to address the Army’s requirement for various types of UGVs over the next 10 years, according to S Sundaresh, DRDO’s distinguished scientist and chief controller of armament combat engineering and services interaction. The use of UGVs, which are stateof-the-art robots, has acquired a greater significance in counterinsurgency, urban as well as jungle-warfare situations for varied tasks, including surveillance and reconnaissance operations and safe handling and disposal of improvised explosive devices (IEDs).

Defence, Home ministries to decide on AFSPA

HEMANT RAWAT

A DECISION on revoking the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) in Jammu and Kashmir will be taken by the defence and home ministries, according to Northern Command chief Lt Gen KT Parnaik. He, however, considers: “AFSPA is a necessity for national security.” The senior Army officer, while interacting with the press recently, reasoned the context of AFSPA’s need in Jammu and Kashmir, citing the ground realities, anticipations of threat of terrorists coming from across the Line of Control (LoC) to disturb the peace, and the continuous ceasefire violations by Pakistan troops.

First indigenous aircraft carrier

VIJAY KUMAR

THE FIRST Indigenous Aircraft Carrier (IAC) of the Navy was floated out at the Cochin Shipyard Limited (CSL), at a low-key event attended by senior shipping and naval officers on December 30, 2011. To be named after the legendary INS Vikrant, it will be a 40,000-tonne fleet air defence platform of the Navy. It has already taken on about 14,000 tonnes and will now undergo interior outfitting, including the laying of pipes before being dry-docked again in the latter half of next year for integration of the propulsion gear-box, generators and the like, according to The Hindu newspaper. As earlier reported by The Hindu, a delay in the delivery of gear boxes and associated systems had slowed down the construction of the prestigious carrier considerably. But now, problems are said to have been sorted out.

www.geopolitics.in

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DPR MOD

ARMY.MIL

THE DEFENCE Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) is working on an ambitious

THOUGH IT suffered a major setback following the crash of an aircraft prototype in 2010, India’s first multi-role 14-seater light transport aircraft programme, Saras, is staging a comeback, if the annual report of the Bengalurubased Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) governed laboratory is to be believed. The Saras Production Standard Aircraft (PSA), which is the third prototype of the Saras programme, is under assembly at the National Aerospace Laboratories (NAL) and is expected to fly in the last quarter of 2012. The Saras PSA will be fully equipped with a digital cockpit and advanced avionics and flight control systems that include MFDs (multi-function displays).

IAF against Army aviation brigades The Indian Air Force (IAF) has reportedly opposed the Army’s move to constitute aviation brigades that will comprise a squadron each of attack helicopters in its various Army corps. The IAF thinks that the move is a violation of the current government policy, enunciated in 1986, that clearly lays down the equipment that each service will have. At present, the IAF is providing all support to the Army in terms of attack helicopters. However, it has no problem with the Navy developing its own aviation assets, on the ground that the Navy has off-shore assets to guard. February 2012

GEOPOLITICS PROFILE

The ‘outsider’ who rose to lead the company, R K TYAGI effected a magnificent changeover at Pawan Hans Helicopters Limited. K SRINIVASAN profiles the meticulous planner as he prepares to move to Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL)

H C Tiwari

OU CAN rarely catch R K Tyagi unprepared — there is a certain sense of readiness about him. And that isn’t the only attribute that is given about his persona. A little pad and pen are a must and there must be sundry times in any meeting that the pen will dart over paper and this dyed-in-the wool engineer from Roorkee IIT will thank you for another ‘great idea’. No wonder last year his alma mater feted him for being a outstanding alumni of the institution. For someone who has spent almost his entire working life in the public sector, Tyagi is refreshingly unstuffy. He doesn’t have the defence-as-thebest-form-of-attack-avatar that is

“I HAD LITTLE IDEA ABOUT HELICOPTERS TILL I TOOK OVER IN MUMBAI…” www.geopolitics.in

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February 2012

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overwhelming amongst Public Sector Undertakings (PSUs). And during his close four-and-a-half years at Pawan Hans Helicopters Ltd, there have been several occasions when literally with great urgency things came all around him. He picked each piece and PHHL has actually emerged better with each episode. “Every incident in life gives one an opportunity to reflect and learn. At Pawan Hans we have used every turn to improve ourselves and get better,” he says. Strange as it may seem, in a seminal move, Tyagi shifted from Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) where he had spent 31 years, to join Pawan Hans as its Chief Executive in May 2007. It is sort of a move that is usually described as ‘foolhardy’. Here was a bloke who had a flawless track record in the petroleum giant, rising from rookie trainee engineer to a General Manager who was on the fast-insidertrack and a head of the Air Logistics, providing air support to offshore operations of ONGC. Tyagi says, “Believe it or not I had little idea about helicopters and offshore logistics till I took over in Mumbai. But those were terrific days and I had a remarkable time in ramping up ONGC’s offshore operations.” It was also the sort of experience that was invaluable when Tyagi was selected for the Pawan Hans assignment. When he landed at Pawan Hans he had a complete encyclopedic knowledge of the chopper business, costs, structure, maintenance… you name it. Now four-and-a-half years later, as he prepares to move to Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. (HAL), there are many who wonder why he was not chosen for the top job at ONGC when he was in the shortlist of two. Tyagi is candid and stated matter-of-factly: “There were two of us, one was chosen and that’s the end of the matter. I have chosen to pursue other opportunities and challenges. But I will always have a special place in my heart for ONGC. I cut my teeth there and learnt a hundred different things along the way.” In fact, his stint at ONGC is described by insiders as something that could be divided into three phases: learning curve, managerial curve and finally leadership curve. He was www.geopolitics.in

amongst the top managers of the corporation sent in 2004 for a year’s sabbatical at the Indian School of Business (ISB) in Hyderabad and it was no surprise that he topped: “It was frightfully tough. The amount of learning and paper work we had to do was immense, but was invaluable in terms of sheer experience and intellectual stimulation. It was also an eye opener on the tools that are available to a modern manager and the skill set that he requires,” said Tyagi in a recent conversation. Within ONGC, his colleagues describe him as the sort of nuts-andbolts man who believes that the devil is in the details. He lays out his vision, outlines the brief and lets you free to deliver. But when he reviews he looks at every little detail to make sure that

HE DOES NOT CARRY THE SHIBBOLETH OF ENTRENCHED INEFFECTIVE SYSTEMS LIKE OTHERS AT HAL the flanks are covered. It is the sort of training you’d more expect in someone from a regimented background. But he isn’t from the forces and it is such a surprise that he is a stickler for details, said one official who has worked closely with him at PHHL. This approach was evident in the report the Committee produced on helicopter operations after the YSR Reddy crash in Andhra Pradesh. It was thorough, clinical and implemented in toto by the government. The consequences have been nothing but spectacular. The corporation’s flight dispatch that was hovering in the 70s when he took over suddenly shot up to 90s. And with its improved reliability came a spate of new businesses that gave the company a huge fillip in the helicopter market. It set up a high tension wire-cleaning programme with the Power Grid Corpora-

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tion that was an unqualified success. Its heli-tourism objectives for Amarnath, Vaishnodevi and Kedarnath have been such an unqualified success that there are times when you have to book in advance if you don’t want to be disappointed. PHHL continues to be the first choice for state governments across the country. Two major helipads are coming up in Delhi, and for the first time, defined routes are being codified for chopper operations in major metros, a training institute for the pilots is up and running, aircraft have been acquired and the corporation is expanding its footprint across sectors. As he prepares to move to HAL as its sixteenth Chairman, what is unique that R K Tyagi brings to the table? For starters, an outsider’s perspective of detachment. He does not carry the shibboleth of entrenched ineffective systems that whole timers from within the HAL suffer from, or the one-dimensional perspective that an Air Force appointment would have inevitably provided. If the Pawan Hans experience is anything to go by, Tyagi can be expected to spend his first few months clearing the cobwebs, getting to know why the crucial customers are so disappointed with HAL and putting the systems to place to push it to the next level. Some years back in an inspired decision, the Pawan Hans top brass travelled from Delhi to Mumbai on the Rajdhani Express to brainstorm and discuss new ideas. “It was a first rate decision by our Chairman,” said one officer and added, “Everyone opened up, ideas were shared and the result was that we prepared a vision document outlining what we wanted to do over the next few years. Most of all, everyone owned. It became the company mantra.” HAL today has a lot of survival and strategic issues to handle. That is always the case when institutions start believing that they are God’s gift to mankind. But if his track record is anything to go by, R K Tyagi, and to use a cricketing expression, is the sort of an all-rounder-cum-captain who can adapt to any kind of wicket and ensure victory for the team he plays for. February 2012

GEOPOLITICS

COVERSTORY

FLYING INTO THE GROUND

BAE SYSTEMS

SIGHT FOR SORE EYES: After waiting for more than two decades IAF finally has a dedicated advanced jet trainer to train its flight cadets

The Indian Air Forceâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s flight-safety record has come in for much criticism lately, given the recent spate of accidents. But then, is it fair to blame the pilots when serious compromises are being made during their training programmes because of the shortage of trainer aircraft? ROHIT SRIVASTAVA reports www.geopolitics.in

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February 2012

g COVERSTORY

HE CABINET Committee on Security (CCS) recently met to discuss purchases for Indian Air Force (IAF). The outcome of the meeting was the finalisation of the contract for purchase of 490 MICA (a multi-target and all-weather missile system) from European missile major MBDA (a multinational group that includes France and the Unites States and specialises in missile and missile systems) for `6,600 crore. With this, the deals for Mirage 2000 fighter plane (procured from France) are complete. However, the significant aspect of the CCS meeting was the postponement of “the

delay in approval of the aircraft will further hold up the procurement by at least one year. This will further complicate the problem.” In the last five months, there have been five accidents involving IAF aircraft. The Ministry of Defence (MoD) has told Parliament that it has lost 1000 aircraft to accidents since 1970. This comes to roughly around 25 aircraft a year or two aircraft a month. For any air force this would be a very high rate of aircraft attrition. The high rate of accidents has been attributed to numerous factors, of which the lack of suitable trainers is one of the important reasons. The cause of accidents can be divided into three parts: human error, technical and

environmental. The human error includes both aircrew errors and maintenance or fitting faults. The technical factors include material failure and malfunction of parts. The environmental factor includes bird-hits, fog and weather conditions. The MoD has attributed 39 per cent of basic trainer” purchase for the IAF from Swiss firm Pilatus. This decision has put the IAF, which has been struggling for the last two years for a basic trainer, highly demoralised. This inability of the CCS to take a decision on the basictrainers is a continuation of the pattern of decisions which India has been taking for at least four decades. The fighters have always got precedence over the trainers when it comes to procurement by India, despite the fact that the trainers for fighter pilots are equally important, if not more so, than the fighter aircraft. One senior IAF officer told Geopolitics, “How can they postpone the deal? We are in dire need of a trainer. This www.geopolitics.in

CHINA, PAKISTAN USE MIG-21S VARIANTS BUT THEY DON’T HAVE THE SAME NUMBER OF ACCIDENTS the accidents to the pilot error. The same percentage has been attributed to technical failures: old technology and engine failure. But then, how does one explain why Indian fighter pilots make so many costly and fatal mistakes? Is the training inadequate? Or, is the IAF following a dated methodology of training? Or, are there issues with the training aircraft?

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The IAF has been struggling with the procurement of trainer-aircraft since 1980s. India does not have a good basic, trainer. Air Marshal A K Singh, ex-Director General (Flight Safety), IAF, told Geopolitics: “Indian fighter accidents can be divided into two distinct sets of accidents. The first set involves the old MiG series led by MiG-21 and the second set includes advanced aircraft like MiG29, Su-30, Jaguar and Mirage 2000. In between these two sets lie the MiG-21 Bis aircraft. If we see the accident pattern of the MiG-21 aircraft, it has an accident rate of 1.2/10,000 flight hours, which is higher than that of advanced western

nations like the US/ the UK/France with similar aircraft. But the accident rate of more advanced aircraft in the IAF inventory is around .78-.82/10,000 flight hours, a figure which is comparable to an advanced nation’s rate of accidents.” The IAF has lost 476 aircraft of the MiG series out of 946 aircraft procured by India. This constitutes 50 per cent of the MiG fleet. The large number of their accidents has been attributed to technical failure and old technology. But even in this, the MiG 21 is the single biggest culprit for the accidents. That, in turn, has been attributed to the spares problem after the collapse of the USSR. During the early 1990s, India was forced to procure parts from Ukraine and many of these were not of an acceptable standard. It is worth mentioning that the supply chain of the Russian firms was scattered across the USSR and after its demise these firms went to independent republics such as Ukraine. The IAF did procure the certificate of originality of the parts from the Ukrainian firms while buying spares. In that sense, one can argue that spare parts were “original”. In any case, this happened 20 years ago. Things have changed since then. As regards the trainer aircraft, IAF training programmes have always been dependent on foreign trainer aircraft, which were always available in limited numbers. Their replacements never arrived in time, leading to ad-hoc February 2012

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COVERSTORY

MiG ¾ First inducted into the Indian Air Force in 1964, there have been 34 MiG crashes resulting in six deaths since 2005 changes in training programmes to suit the availability of trainers. At present, the IAF rookies go through their training on two aircraft: Kiran, a subsonic jet trainer, and the Hawk advanced jet trainer. According to sources, the 178th batch is the last training batch to undergo advanced jet training on the MiG-21. Thereafter, all the fighter stream pilots will undergo advanced jet training on the Hawk. Every fighter pilot undergoes three stages of training before

in which he learns to fly solo on a trainer aircraft. After the successful completion of the basic training, he graduates to the intermediate training where he flies subsonic jet aircraft called Kiran. He then moves on to the advanced training on jet aircraft like MiG-21 and AJT Hawk. After completion, he is sent to an operational squadron where he undergoes a set number of flying hours on the trainer version of the fighter aircraft with an experienced pilot before going solo. It takes hundreds of hours of flying before one gets fully accustomed with the aircraft. However, the above is a perfect scenario as per the syllabus. In practice, this has not been the case. In this scheme, if one takes out any of the aircraft at any stage out of the three stages the whole training regimen goes haywire. To compensate the loss of the stage there has to be compensatory flying hours in other stages. And this is what seems to be happening with the training. For instance, it is said that faced with an acute shortage of trainers, the IAF has cut

Chief of Air Staff and an ace fighter pilot with many firsts to his credit, recounts how he went through the IAF training in late Sixties. “Earlier when we got commissioned we used to fly a basic trainer, which was slow and propeller-driven and we did a certain number of hours on these machines. We flew 75 hours on the HT-2 basic trainer. We had to have certain hours to convert to go solo. Then we would be in a consolidation phase to become near proficient in handling aircraft. This was the time when we built up more confidence. Gradually, we would move on to the advanced flying and then start doing aerobatics, etc.,” he said. During 1960-1970, the second phase was on the T-6 Texan/Harvard aircraft. These aircraft were more powerful with higher speeds. Pilots did about 50-60 hours in the second stage. The pilots were trained on the propeller aircraft only to continue with the same type of aircraft in next stage. The advanced training was done on Vampire — a pure

jet aircraft, which was used both in operations and in training. The Vampire was subsequently replaced by Kiran in the 70s and by the mid-70s the replacement PIB

SUKHOI-30 going to the operational squadron. The pilots initially go through the glider training in the National Defence Academy (NDA), and these days cadets also go through micro-light aircraft flight training. Post-NDA, the pilots undergo training on the basic trainer, which is a propeller-driven light aircraft. After completing certain hours of flying, a pilot goes through “conversion flight” www.geopolitics.in

down flying time for rookie pilots to one-third, altering its training programme for officers at the Air Force Academy (AFA) in Dundigal, Andhra Pradesh. In the first stage, the cadets get away with only 21 hours of flying experience instead of the mandated minimum requirement of 75 flying hours. Air Marshal PK Barbora, former Vice-

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¾ Inducted into the Indian Air Force in September 2002, there have been three Su-30 MKI crashes, with no loss of lives of Vampire was complete. Air Marshal Barbora further informed that, “In the late 70s, the Harvards also moved out. Subsequently, HT-2 was replaced by HPT-32 for basic flying training. Kiran remained along with February 2012

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similar aircraft like the Iskra, a Polish trainer. The advanced training was then done with 80 hours of flying on the Vampire.”According to him, “We needed to have flown a total of 220 hours before getting our wings. We did our basic training on the HT-2, intermediate training on the Texas and final training on the Vampires.” With the Vampire going out, the need for the advanced jet was felt. The flying hours were changed to suit the new training plan. Air Marshal Barbora explains, “After the decommissioning of the Vampire, we had an adequate number of Kiran, so basic training remained same on HPT-32. Then we had an intermediate stage on Kiran. The flying hours remained the same as on that of the Vampire jet. The final phase was either on the Iskara or Kiran. The duration of flying hours kept changing between intermediate and final stages of training with experience over time in this system.” This was the time when India was inducting the whole family of MiG aircraft and the process for Mirage and Jaguars began. This pushed up the requirements of pilots in IAF. India began to look for an advanced jet trainer to prepare rookies for advance aircraft. India was using the Hunter for this purpose during the 70s. Along with this, the MiG-21 was also used as trainers. Pilots graduated from the Hunters which were subsonic to the MiG-21s supersonic aircraft. The trainee pilots who had aboveaverage performance during their training were selected for MiG-21s in their operation convergence training. Pilots were trained directly for operational flying at the MiG Operation Flying Training Unit (MOFTU) in Assam and then moved to dedicated squadrons. The MiG-21 is a difficult aircraft to fly even for an experienced pilot. To train rookies on it was a decision solely based www.geopolitics.in

JAGUAR ¾ Inducted into the Indian Air Force in July 1979, the Jaguar has had crashes five since 2005, resulting in two deaths. on availability and price. Since India had large number of these aircraft and they were dirt cheap, thanks to Russian generosity, IAF could employ them without compromising its operational capability. One more reason for selecting this aircraft was its similarity to other Russian aircraft under induction. The pilots didn’t feel any difficulty with new aircraft. This situation remained the same throughout the 80s and 90s and nothing worthwhile changed. Indian forces call this decade ‘the lost decade’ as no new induction took place and Indian forces continued to use old Russian systems. Indian requirement of indigenous trainer aircraft like the intermediate jet

Sukhoi-30 MKs were first inducted in 1998 and we are still inducting the Indian version of the fighter, ie Su-30 MKI. The Su-30 MKI had just three accidents in 80,000 hours of flying. It’s an enviable record for any aircraft. There are varied reasons behind the aircrafts’ accidents. The first Su -30 MKI accident, which occurred on April 30, 2009, was due to the combination of two factors: human engineering design and pilot error

PK BARBORA

Retd. Air Vice- Chief

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trainer and light combat aircraft (LCA) didn’t fructify and the problems of advanced training remained with its loopholes, possibly causing a huge number of accidents. After a series of accidents, the IAF was forced to ground the HPT-32 Deepak, HAL’s indigenous basic trainer in 2009. This jeopardised the whole training procedure of the IAF. Air Marshal Barbora reasoned why the Deepak was grounded. “HPT-32 was grounded in 2009 as it had some drawbacks. The engine had problems in this aircraft and we had a lot of cases of engine failures. In a small basictraining aircraft, when the engine fails, because of speed, you can force-land the aircraft. The HPT-32 was not good for force landing. It had a design problem. Many modifications were made in engine and airframe but somehow the problem did not vanish. IAF felt it was having a demoralising effect on the trainees. We could never overcome the problem in the aircraft. It had a series of accidents during the 2008-2009. We asked HAL for 100 per cent elimination of the problem but unfortunately this could not happen. HAL hasn’t been able to come out with aircraft to meet our requirements in time.” In the meantime, the long-awaited advanced jet trainer Hawak as a trainer aircraft finally came into the IAF in 2008. Once the HPT-32 was grounded, the pilots were sent directly on to the Kiran. So, after deliberation it was decided to do basic flying on Kiran aircraft also. Earlier, when cadets were trained on small, powered aircraft, it meant only gliders. Today, when an IAF cadet comes for flight training straight in a Kiran, he is little aware about “powered flying” during which he could afford mistakes and learn for perfection. But in the absence of a basic trainer, he is deprived today of this vital learning experience. It is a very difficult choice to send the pilots for basic training on the Kiran to learn basic flying. India has Kiran Mk1 for simple jet flying and MkII for ground attack and some aerobatics. At present, they are also used in intermediate trainFebruary 2012

g COVERSTORY ing. India has quite a few Kiran aircraft. But if trainees have more flying hours on the Kiran, then it would eat into its life and since its replacement will not come in time, things are becoming more difficult for the IAF. If the number of Kiran aircraft goes down, the trainers will not be available for training. This is a Catch22 situation for the IAF, particularly when the Interim Jet Trainer Sitara is far from induction. The Sitara was expected to achieve initial operational capability by 2011. Thus, a situation might arise when the IAF will not even have the Kiran for intermediate training. As for advanced training, the IAF got its first AJT Hawk in 2008. The first con-

SINCE 1972, THE US HAS LOST 523 FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN ACCIDENTS ACROSS THE WORLD tract was for 66 aircraft. The quantity of Hawks under purchase has gone up from an initial 66 to 106. The 15 aircraft of the

first batch ordered in 2004 are still pending and will be finished in 2012.The second round of 40 aircraft ordered will be delivered in 2014 and thereafter. The IAF feels the adequate numbers of Hawks are there and one unit of MiG-21 is still there for training which will be relieved this year of training duty. Sources suggest that the IAF has not been in a position to continue with 220 hours of flying required for a pilot during training. It has been forced to reduce the flying hours due to lack of aircraft. One senior officer suggested, “If you keep changing well-established patterns of training like number of hours and type of aircraft, then obviously there will be

“WE NEED BASIC TRAINERS OR ELSE WE WILL HAVE TO FACE CONSEQUENCES DOWN THE LINE” The Air Force’s need for reliable hardware is the reason behind many of its worries. Former Air Chief SP TYAGI outlines the reasons behind many of the training worries of the Indian air warriors

HEMANT RAWAT

RAINING STARTS at the selection of a candidate. A cadet must reach a minimum set standard. I want to ask: Have we passed the pilots below standard? What is the data that suggests they were poorly trained? Are we graduating below standard? The answer is no. Then the question arises: Are we getting people below standard? We may not be getting the best but most certainly we are getting people above pass marks. We are getting required quality men. We don’t live in a perfect world. Are other air forces getting the best people? When I joined the Air Force it was the best paid job. Things have changed over the years. But let me tell you there has never been a compromise on the quality of training and selection. If we are selecting wrong types we are digging their graves. But if they are poorly trained, the responsibility is ours. Now, the question is, if they are

www.geopolitics.in

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poorly trained, then it could be because of old methodology or poor trainers. We have exchange programmes with the US. We exchange instructors with them so we know our instructors are good. There are other factors which are important. All our people are good. Generally, the human material in Indian forces is good. Our men do very well in foreign countries whenever they go for training or other purposes. Now, we come to the material. We don’t have a basic trainer. Those who haven’t flown HPT-32 Deepak haven’t come in the accident zone. There has been an emergency since the HPT-32 were grounded in 2009 and there have not been any replacements; we need to squeeze the procedures. We have experimented with all kinds of jet training. Many countries do that but that’s a very expensive option. The IAF has a plan of providing basic training before moving on to the Kiran for intermediate training. We never designed our training programme for Kiran as the basic trainer. Otherwise we would have ordered 100 more Kirans. It’s cheaper to provide basic training on a piston aircraft. The whole pattern of training is designed on resources. We are just short of hardware. What options do we have? The IAF can cut down the number of February 2012

g COVERSTORY some ill effects. The IAF has tried to do it best. The IAF was managing it as shortterm solution without compromising competence.” Responsible IAF sources add, however, that this year, the basic training flying hours has been increased to 60 hours from 21 hours. The IAF reduced the flying hours in basic training after the grounding of HPT-32 Deepak. The rationale behind this was that the basic and intermediate training is on the same aircraft (Kiran) so there was not much flying hours required at basic level. This year the intermediate fighter training hours have also been increased by 35 hours. It seems that the series of acci-

dents since August 2011 is the precipitating factor for the need to increase the training hours.

The MiG-21, dubiously known as the Flying Coffin, is the largest contributor to the number of accidents in the IAF. The large number of MiG-21 crashes has been blamed on the poor maintenance of the aircraft. The IAF sources suggest that, “As per procedure, no aircraft is ever offered for flying if it has any defect or suspect of defect. The probability of having problems in old technology is higher. The accident rate per flying hour is comparable to any air force with similar aircraft. The MiG-21’s flying hours are far more than any aircraft — let’s say the Jaguar or the Mirage-2000. We need to see it in terms of takeoff and landing as the MiG-21s have to land every 30

pilots we induct. But a huge number of aircraft are scheduled for induction and we cannot create pilots overnight. So, we cannot cut down on pilot intake. The only option left with the Air Force was to reduce the flight training hours. If we increase the number of flying hours on the Kiran, the aircraft will need replacement faster. Then the question of the Interim Jet Trainer (IJT) comes in. There are issues with adjustment to the shortage of aircraft. Everything comes down to the aircraft or hardware. The IAF was left with no option but to ground the HPT 32. When cadets start showing lack of confidence and faith in the aircraft we are left with no other option. The trainer has to be super safe and super forgiving. If we were close to having an operational Interim Jet Trainer, we could have used the Kiran more in flying. We had not expected the HPT 32 to be grounded. If we use the Kiran more, then they will come to the end of their lifecycle more quickly and we will not be left with aircraft to train. The option is to buy basic trainers. We can delay the process. There is a hardware problem and it can be solved by getting the desired hardware. There was a predictable time for IJT to replace the Kirans…should we not start thinking about giving more resources to the training command? The IJT engine does not meet the quality requirements. In one incident the undercarriage of the IJT broke down. The test plane was lost. If there are doubts about the IJT, then we should start thinking about alternatives. In the meantime, the pilot induction will have to be ratio-

nalised. Otherwise, pilots with less experience will get into squadrons. The squadron training for such pilots will be more. We don’t have so many squadron trainer aircraft. We have only two trainers per squadron and in this situation we would need more trainer versions. Unlike the Su-30 all other aircraft in IAF inventory are single-seater aircraft. The lesstrained pilots would require more trainer sorties, which would require a change in the syllabus and their life will also get shortened by the extra load. We need trainers at the basic level or else we will have to face consequences down the line. The whole system is designed to be slow. We are procedure-oriented, not result-oriented. As far as procurements go, a chief can get what he wants but one can never be sure when. When it comes to the rate of accidents, there are no clear-cut answers. At one point in time, we used to lose nearly 30 aircraft every year. There are ways to measure the accident rate i.e. based on per 10,000 flight hours or on absolute numbers per year. The more you fly, the more number of accidents you are prone to (make). But paradoxically, the more you fly the chances of accidents go down as the pilots gain more experience. With an increase in flight hours, the pilot becomes less prone to accidents. That’s why experienced pilots have fewer chances of accidents. But when we compare ourselves to other air forces it is a complex issue as factors like type of aircraft, flying hours, etc. are different. To compare ourselves with other air forces we need a basic level-playing field. It is not just aircraft but environment factors like radar and com-

munication, etc. also come into play. There are a host of reasons. We were destroying 33 aicraft every year in the 1970s, which was around two squadrons per year. If we see the graph there is a constant decline in the rate of accidents. During my tenure as Chief, the number of accidents fell from 17 in 2005 to 9 in 2006. The IAF pilots don’t fly enough. We are now at around 9 aircraft accidents per year and the graph has flattened. Part of the matter is that we are getting rid of old aircraft which were more prone to accidents. The future looks better from environmental and technology point of view. The good news is that the Hawk Advanced Jet Trainer being inducted in large numbers. Our own Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) will make for a very good advanced trainer aircraft till it evolves into a lead fighter. The Hawk has more-or-less replaced the MiG-21. Now, we have a problem with the IJT and the basic trainer. Our men have been good but we are now getting better environmentally also. We are also liaisioning with the local authorities for the safety of the airfields. In addition to training, airfields are also getting modernised. Simulator maintenance is an issue. We need to look at outsourcing simulator maintenance. The Pilatus deal has got struck which is a matter of concern. It is a matter of cost effectiveness. How did they decide the price? Is the price for grounding aircraft less? What are the options with IAF? Have they thought it out? We are signing better contracts and we are getting better deals. Is the glass half full or half empty? I will say it is half empty.

www.geopolitics.in

THE PANAVIA TORNADO, THE MAIN FIGHTER OF UK'S ROYAL AIR FORCE, HAS MET WITH 60 CRASHES SINCE 1979

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February 2012

g COVERSTORY Sl No

Date

Time

1 4-Jan 2 4-Mar 3 8-Mar 4 11-May 5

21-Jun

6 7 8

7-Oct 26-Oct 13-Dec

19-Dec

10 27-Dec

Name of aircraft

Name of pilot

Place

2005 Nal Bikaner S/L Kalia AFA Dundigal F/C Rana Nal Bikaner Fg Offr T Chauhan Basti Gorakhpur Flt Lt Amit Singh G/C Shankar MI-17 Dehrauli W/C Sinha Jaguar Gwalior S/L V Gupta MiG-21 Bangalore S/L KR Mruthy MiG-21 Tezpur S/L Bansal S/L Berry Canberra Agra S/L A Sharma W/C Bapat Kiran MK-II Bangalore W/C Deepak 2006 MiG-21 Jamnagar S/L JPS Bains Microlight Kalaikunda ---MiG-21 HPT32 MiG21 Jaguar

Killed/ Ejected Ejected Killed Killed Killed Safe Ejected Killed Ejected Killed Ejected

1 2

17-Jan 17-Feb

18-Mar

Kiran MK-II Surya Kiran

Bidar

21-Mar

MiG-21

Utterlai

8-Mar

MiG-29 Trainer

Jamnagar

28-Sep

MiG-29

Ambala

S/L VP Naik

Ejected

19-Oct

MiG-27

Hasimara

W/C KD singh

Ejected

21-Nov

MiG-29

Jamnagar

F/L K Kant

Ejected

S/L Sarod

Killed

W/C D Bhatia S/L S Singh S/L TK Chikara F/O AB Kohak W/C Nautiyal S/L Mahal

Ejected Ejected Killed Killed Ejected

2007 1

18-Jan

Jaguar

Jaisalmer

S/L Priya Sharma W/C V Jaittley S/L Swapnil Pandey

2-Feb

ALH

Bangalore

1-Mar

MiG-21

Shibkhola (Kursung)

11-Apr

Chetak

Siachin Glaciar

8-May

MiG-29

---Killed

S/L S Basu F/L A Sharma

Killed

Lt R Chuhan

Ejected

S/L Reddy

Killed

----

Killed

11-Sep

Kiran Mk-i

Adampur Jammu/ Udhampur Hakimpet

26-Oct

Jaguar

Jaisalmer

S/L Sangwan

Ejected

28-Nov

Kiran MK-i

Warnagal

----

Ejected

----

Ejected

6 22-May

10 22-Dec

MiG-21/T75

Kiran Mk-I Bhubaneshwar

minutes so the flight hours are less but take off and landing is more and one must remember most of the accidents take place during takeoff and landing only.” Air Marshal AK Singh believes, “With www.geopolitics.in

age the mean time failure goes up. After Hunter, we needed trainer aircraft and MiG-21 became ab-initio trainers. A pilot needs a very high level of capability to take the aircraft to its operational capability. Most of the accidents in MiG-

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21s have happened with pilots with fourfive years of service when they were confident of taking the aircraft to its operational envelope.” Air Marshal Singh further explains, “In the MiG-21 the situational awareness is less and the aircraft is very fast. Since it didn’t have the modern navigation system the pilots would get worried and his attention would get diverted and he can get into a situation from where he couldn’t recover.” There is a phenomenon called the spatial disorientation which also seems to have contributed to the mess. Sometime during flight, especially during dawn and dusk, the pilots are unable to make out whether his aircraft is upright and flying straight or is tilting. The instruments say something and the pilot’s brain says something else. This confuses the pilot and he gets into

IF THE NUMBER OF KIRANS DECREASES, AIRCRAFT WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE FOR TRAINING something called the ‘graveyard spin’ and he can’t recover the aircraft. Air Marshal Singh, who during his position in flight safety has come across many such cases, suggests that, “The only remedy to this kind of problem is instrument flying. During the training, a pilot is trained to fly with instrument, not with mind. The instrument has less chances of going wrong as there are redundancies built into the system. Instrument flying can be learned only through flying. The more one flies the better he becomes. Aircraft are dynamically unstable to have a high degree of manoeuvrability. Decisions are made in a split second and some decisions are not in sync with problems which lead to accidents.” This is where a good trainer comes into play. However, many fighter pilots say that the MiG- 21 is not that bad as it is made out to be. Wing Commander Praful Bakshi (Retd), who has flown many hours on the MiG-21, says: “India does not February 2012

g COVERSTORY make MiG-21s, and replacement parts which came in as genuine parts were unreliable and spurious. Indian authorities were forced to use old parts on life extension.” He further said, “China and Pakistan also use MiG-21s, known as the F-7, but they don’t have the same level of accidents. The reason for this is that they have indigenous manufacturing and quality control is good.” Besides, many officials believe that since the IAF is very transparent it doesn’t hide any crashes, whereas China and Pakistan, being authoritarian, bar their media from such information. The accident rates of both, Pakistan and China, are comparable to India.” There is yet another factor that is important for training pilots. This is the factor of simulation. In modern pilot training the simulators play a very important role. Simulators provide the

THE COST OF TRAINING ON SIMULATORS IS `10,000 AN HOUR WHILE IT COSTS `2-3 LAKH ON A JAGUAR pilots with a cheap and comfortable way of training. Here, the trainee pilot makes all those fatal mistakes that he would in actual flying but learns how to cope with the situation without risking his life. Says Air Marshal Barbora: “One of the weak areas of the IAF has been the use of simulators in training. We had our first simulator in the 70s for MiG-21 and the IAF did not procure enough of them. But later, it was decided that a simulator would be purchased for every type of aircraft. We are slowly coming to the end of the tunnel and our mission simulators are very good.” Air Marshal Singh gave a monetary perspective of the whole thing, saying, “The cost of training on simulators is ` 10,000/hour whereas for the same duration Jaguar costs around `2-3 lakh with risk of pilot and plane. The flying hours don’t get reduced with simulators but it helps in assimilating the instructor’s instruction.” Today’s simulators have become very small and it is easy to fit www.geopolitics.in

Sl Date No

Time

Name of aircraft

Place

Name of pilot

1 31-Jan 2 15-Feb

MiG-27 MiG 21

2008 Hasimara Bhuj

3 30-Apr

Hawk Trainer

Bidar

4 12-May

HPT32

AFA

5 23-May

MiG 21

Bagdogra

6 12-Nov

MiG 21

Chabua

7 17-Nov

MiG 23 Trainer

Hasimara

F/L S Agase W/C S Gore W/C Ashis Kumar Dundigal

Killed/ Ejected Ejected Ejected Ejected

Ejected S/L F/O Nanda W/C Sisodia F/L Kartika

Ejected Ejected

2009 1 21-Jan

Kiran, MK-II Surya Kiran

Bidar

2 30-Apr

SU30 MKI

Jaisalmer

W/C SV Munje W/C PS Nara

Ejected

3 15-May

MiG27

Jodhpur

S/L Dawan

Ejected

4 27-May

MiG 21 Bison

Jodhpur

S/L SC Deo

Ejected

AN 32 Transport MiG 21 FL

9-Jun

6 18-Jun

W/C RS Dhaliwal Killed

Jorhat

Killed

Chabua

Ejected

7 31-Jul

HPT 32

AFA Dundigal

8 10-Sep

MiG 21

Bhatinda

S/L Ritin Jain S/L N Chaturvedi F/L

9 23-Oct

MiG 27

New Jalpaiguri

F/L Gautam

Killed

W/C Garg F/L Tomar JWO K Singh Sgt SK

Killed

10 30-Oct

MI-17

Doda (j&K)

11 30-Nov

SU30 MKI

Jaisalmer

1 16-Feb

MIG 27

2010 Hasimara

2 19-Feb 1500 Hrs

MiG 21

Bagdogra

3 15-Jun 1125 Hrs MiG 21 /T96 4 23-Jul

MiG 27

Raikot, Halwara Hasimara

them even in a room. But then, simulators can never replace the real trainer aircraft. One of the main questions that remains is: how long the Kirans will last? IJT Sitara, the Kiran’s long-awaited replacement aircraft is nowhere close to

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Killed Killed

W/C Srivastava Ejected F/L Arora W/C Oswaled S/L Rahul Tiwari W/C Sandeep Singh S/L Sanket Verma

Killed Ejected Ejected Ejected

becoming operational. Here, the IAF officials blame HAL for failing to deliver in time. Air Marshal Barbora says, “It is HAL which has failed. It has not been able to do anything. It has been making promises as usual.” February 2012

PILATUS

COVERSTORY

INDIGENISATION IS THE KEY

State-of-art fighters are not built in a day. Hence, an enormous human resources initiative and financial investment are required to build a team and attract and nurture talent, writes ABHIJIT BHATTACHARYYA

T SEEMS India will eventually induct the Swiss-made trainer jets in the Indian Air Force (IAF) and things are bound to look up for the trainee pilots of the defence forces. The “new aircraft” PC-7 Mk-II built by Pilatus Aircraft Ltd, Stans, Switzerland, has three subsidiaries based in USA, Australia and Switzerland. Launched in November 1998 with “21st century technology”, PC7 II actually is the successor of Pilatus PC-21 basic turboprop trainer. With its maiden appearance on July 22, 2002, at Farnborough Air Show, the “second development aircraft” unfortunately was “destroyed in a crash at Buochs, Switzerland, on January 13, 2005”. However, according to Jane’s All The World’s Aircraft 2011-2012, 25 Pilatus PC21/7 Mk II have been ordered by the UAE on November 17, 2009; and its users now include Singapore (19) and Switzerland (06). Pilatus Switzerland feels that there exists a market for 1000 aircraft over 20year period and it is confident of capturing 50 per cent share thereof. Further, with a reported “30-year life-cycle support cost” it would be interesting to follow the trajectory of the flight of this “basic turboprop trainer” of Swiss origin. Now, a few words on the past performance and record of the PC-7 may be in order. The craft was used for close air support by Iraqi Air Force in the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s and reportedly delivered chemical weapons against Iranians. In www.geopolitics.in

SWISS BIRDS: The Pilatus PC 7 is in the final stage of the competition to be picked up as India’s next basic trainer

Africa, the air force of Chad used the plane to bomb rebel hideouts. In Latin America, the Mexican Air Force used it to confront the Zapatista Army of National Liberation. The aircraft, however, faced several mission failures in the past which brought a question mark to its quality from time to time! Thus, the South African Air Force grounded its entire fleet of PC-7s following a fatal crash on January 5, 2008. Apparently a “structural problem” caused the crash. Similarly, the Malaysian Air Force experienced its fifth accident involving the PC-7 aircraft in March 2010 when it exploded in mid-air

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during an air show. Mexico and Botswana too appear to have had the unpleasant experience of fatal crashes with the aircraft. Although nothing much can possibly be read about these mishaps owing to inherent dangers in any air operations, what however does cause concern is the inexplicably high rate of disasters in peace time. Seen from this angle, India too, will have to be prepared for such eventuality owing to its being importer and the producer of even the basic trainer aircraft till now. Understandably, cent per cent import implies high cost of every thing:from repair, maintenance, logistics to February 2012

g COVERSTORY

operational success and failure, including mishaps. This begs the question why it is that India, an aspiring superpower, does not manufacture even a basic trainer for one of the largest air forces of the world. In stark contrast, the Pakistan Aeronautical

Force/Army; 36 by Pakistani Air Force and 117 by the Army. Besides, Islamabad has also successfully exported 26 aircraft to the Iranian Air Force; 8 to Omani Air Force; 20 to the Saudi Arabian Air Force and 6 to the Syrian Air Force, thereby enhancing its diplomatic and defence

WHY CAN’T INDIA, AN ASPIRING SUPER POWER, MANUFACTURE EVEN A BASIC TRAINER?

Complex, Kamra (District Attock) has so far built 327 Mushshak three-seat light planes with initial production version having been “used for training, communications and observation” and logged more than half a million flying hours by 1999. Although initially licence-built version of Sweden’s “Saab MFI-17 Supporter”, Pakistan appears to have adopted and adapted well as “at least half of surviving Pakistani Air Force Mushshaks have been upgraded to Super standard by 2009”. In fact, Super Mushshak was revealed by Pakistan at Dubai Air Show in November 1997. The most impressive part of Pakistani military aviation is that Islamabad has managed to train its pilots with its own trainer aircraft. Thus, 92 aircraft are in use at Risalpur by Pakistani Air www.geopolitics.in

initiative in the user countries. And that is no mean achievement for a “terror and terrorist-epicentre” state of the world. India’s indigenous military aviation scene, however, looked pretty rosy till the 1970s. The Indian Civil Aviation department (now the much-maligned Ministry of Civil Aviation) had designed and developed a two/three-seat light aircraft named the Revathi “for use by flying clubs, as a basic trainer for ab-initio pilot training, including instruction in spinning, night flying and cross-country navigation”. Simultaneously, HAL too was deep into development and upgrade of the HF-24 Marut as a single-seat ground attack fighter; two-seat jet basic trainer HAL HJT-16 Mark I Kiran; HAL (Hawker Siddley) Gnat Mark I and Ajeet (a Mark II version of the Gnat). In comparison to 1970s, things do not look rosy for Indian military aviation in the 21st century as India’s indigenous

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Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Tejas is still more than two years away from being operational. Started three decades ago, the fighter aircraft thus far has seen 14 air chiefs come and go, 2011 initial operational clearance thereof notwithstanding. Indeed, one is deeply concerned about

the below-par research and development of Indian military aviation. Compared to this contemporary Indian scene, the Chinese are way ahead owing to their determination to attain self-reliance in the aftermath of 1989 Tiananmen Square military technology-sanction imposed by the West on Beijing. The Chinese acceptance of the “sanction challenge” made them reach where India could not reach owing to the inability of the Indians themselves to take up research and development with all seriousness. India missed the aviation bus by not infusing healthy capital investment in research and development for a healthier return and result in the future. One example would suffice here. Beijing initiated a basic trainer aircraft 6A in 1957, but trials proved disappointing. A modified version followed, with a total of 1796 (all types) built by the end of 1986 mainly for the PLA Air Force, and over 200 foreign military customers (like Albania, Bangladesh, Cambodia, North Korea, Sri Lanka, Tanzania, Vietnam and Zambia). And today, unlike the Indian Air Force, the Chinese do not have to depend on imported machines to train their rookies in the air. What needs to be analysed by India today is, how even South Korea has come up with its “basic turboprop trainer/attack light plane” to reduce dependence on foreign suppliers, howsoever friendly they are. The Indians may start concentrating on “time-management” and “technology-demonstration” February 2012

g COVERSTORY

DOO-HO KIM

KOREAN CONTENDER: KAI’s KT-1, which participated in the Indian competition for basic training aircraft was rolled out in late 1991

formula to take care of the time and cost overrun which constitutes the bane of India’s defence project management which in turn makes India ceaselessly and sorely dependent on the foreign supplier/manufacturer at the expense of its own “inefficiency and inferiority”. Thus, Seoul’s Korea Aerospace Industries Limited built KT-1 and KA-1 programmes, launched in 1988, rolled out its first craft on December 12, 1991, and made the first delivery of its product on November 07, 2000, thereby keeping the gestation period of the machine well under a healthy and manageable 13 years. The South Korea achievement becomes all the more praiseworthy because of the subsequent development of an improved version/model in 2000 and rolling it out in October 2009. Understandably, the Korean-made aircraft is in use with Seoul, Ankara (Turkey) and Djakarta (Indonesia), thereby enabling it broaden to a three-dimension expansion of its country’s military, money and technology market, apart from flying the flag thereof. In fact, Korean Aerospace’s KT-1 was also in contention along with the Swiss PC-7 Mk-II, but it seems the IAF mandarins have not been impressed. Finally, the slow indigenisation story of Indian Air Force would appear grimmer if one looks at the resurgent Japanese combat aviation enterprise. Since Japan does not export its defence hardware, the entire inventory thereof is consumed domestically. Thus began the development of Fuji Jukogyo Kabushiki Kaisha (Fuji Heavy Industries Limited)-made T-5 two/four-seat primary trainer in 1984 with delivery thereof to Japan Military Self Defence Force in August 1988. Another interesting and intriguing aspect www.geopolitics.in

of Japan’s aviation enterprise is that Fuji F-7 basic turboprop trainer, which was intended to replace the earlier version of its own country’s company, is being inducted into Japanese defence forces. Compared to these examples, India’s has been an unending story of a monumental failure to build the foundation of its defence forces. When an “import-psyche” grips the mind of the people of a country from subordinate to superior (and vice versa), little can be done perhaps to achieve the unrealised dream of

INDIA’S VENTURE TO BUILD A FOUNDATION FOR ITS DEFENCE FORCES HAS ENDED IN FAILURE attaining superpower status in the world arena. What then is the solution to the import-afflicted air force of New Delhi? The answer partly lies in learning lessons from the USA, Russia and Beijing. The Government of India will have to shell out fat money bags for time-bound research and development projects and may avoid banking on the “goodwill” or “good enterprise” of private operators or the foreign suppliers. For example, when the US multirole fighter F-18 was conceived by the private player Boeing, the “development funding” was approved by US Congress for

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financial year 1992. The $4.88-billion “engineering and manufacturing development contract” was awarded in June 1992 covering seven flight test aircraft.... plus associated the seven-and-a-halfyear test programme. Also $754-million were awarded to General Electric in 1992 for F-414 engine development. Again in the case of F-35 Lightning, the sole fifth-generation fighter, research contracts worth $99.8 million were distributed between four companies: Boeing ($27.6 million); Lockheed Martin ($19.9 million); McDonnell Douglas ($28.2 million) and Northrop Grumman (24.1 million). “Further $28 million were allocated for associated avionics, propulsion systems, structures and materials, and modelling and simulation.” The short of the long story is simple. State-of-the-art fighters are not built in a day. Hence, an enormous human resources initiative and financial investment are required to build team and attract and nurture talent. The IITs at Kanpur, Kharagpur, Mumbai and other engineering colleges across India are known to have aeronautical engineering departments. If India honestly does want to become bankrupt spending $100-billion on imported military hardware in the next five years, then let it at least make a dedicated “beginning” with a $10-billion investment on a war footing for a 25-yearoperational planning to have its own fighter production line in place. Else disaster looms large over Indian defence hardware import thereby shattering the political dream of the nation to be a superpower. (The author is an alumnus of National Defence College) February 2012

geopolitics

INTERNAL SECURITY

TAKING CONTROL India can learn a lot from Russia on how to deal with internal insurgencies

B R I E F S 2011 in review

PIB

Capacity-building was a key achievement of the government during 2011.The para-military outfits got more personnel and better equipment and the general effort was to create a better-prepared set of men and machines to meet the internal security challenges. Here are some of the achievements: Marked improvement in the situation in the North East where various insurgent outfits signed agreements with the Centre. Decline in the number of incidents of violent killings of civilians and security forces negotiations with underground outfits continue and Suspension of Operation (SoO) has also been signed. 2011 has been one of the most peaceful years in J&K with far fewer incidents of violence, as compared to 2010. Maoists and Naxalites, however, remained major concerns. Naxal violence has declined as compared

to the corresponding period last year. In the year 2011 (till November 2011), 1554 Naxal incidents took place causing 542 deaths as compared to 2006 incidents with 932 deaths during the corresponding period of 2010. NATGRID (National Intelligence Grid) has been planned to improve India’s capability to counter internal security threats. Administrative approvals have been completed and the plan is now under implementation. India-Bangladesh Coordinated Border Management Plan (CBMP) was signed when Home Minister P Chidambaram travelled to Dhaka in July. CBMP aims to synergise the efforts of the BSF and BGB for more effective control of the border. Construction of 10 Border Out Posts (BOPs) has been completed and work in 108 BOPs is in progress. Seventy km of fencing and 60 km of roads were completed along the Indo-Bangladesh border. In addition, replacement of 25 km of fencing was completed. Twenty-eight km of fencing was completed, along the Indo-Pakistan border. One hundred eighty nine km of formation work and 108 km of surfacing work were completed during the construction of Indo-China border roads.

Big-time gunrunning

Target: Dalai Lama

Gujarat and Maharashtra and other coastal states have been alerted by the Home Ministry about the intercept of satellite phone calls near the Kutch coast about the likely delivery of a large consignment of arms along the coastline. The Navy and Coast Guard have intensified patrolling after the intercept. Reportedly, the call was made by a Thuraya satellite device to an American number. Intelligence sources are believed to have revealed that the conversation was precise and the enquiries made it transparent that it was all about gunrunning along the coastal areas. All ships and fishing trawlers are being thoroughly checked. Intelligence agencies are not clear whether the arms drop is for as specific operations or part of a regular gunrunning operation. Either way, it is a potent threat and the agencies don’t want to take any chances. www.geopolitics.in

Are Chinese-domiciled

¤terrorists hunting for the

HEMANT RAWAT

INTERNAL SECURITY

Dalai Lama? According to the Mumbai police, intelligence inputs suggest that terrorists from the Tibetan region of China may try to get into India to eliminate the Dalai Lama. The Times of India quoting police sources said: “A good number of Chinese youth enter India on business visas, ostensibly for some clandestine activities. It’s likely that they may try to visit certain areas prohibited for Chinese like Tibetan camps. The Dalai Lama visits Mumbai and other places in Maharashtra. The threat to him must not be underestimated. Loss of Chinese passport and recovery of unknown Chinese passport need to be reported promptly, so that the concerned agencies can question them. In this regard, the activities of the followers of ‘Shugden cult — an anti-Dalai Lama group — need to be kept under strict vigil.” The Mumbai police have informed Tibetan organisations and directed the special branch and the local police to keep police officers updated about the Dalai Lama’s visit to Mumbai. “He often comes to Mumbai and even goes to slums and mixes with people. We will have to enhance security cover for him in Mumbai.’’

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February 2012

g Coast Guard expands

B R I E F S IS

The Indian Coast Guard is fast tracking its modernisation process: four new stations and two air stations besides over 12 ships and 10 aircraft are to join the force in the near future. “The capacity-building projects of the Coast Guard and Marine Police are under full swing. We are in the process of activating four new stations, new air

stations besides inducting more than 20 ships and 10 aircraft in the immediate future,” Coast Guard Regional Commander (East) Inspector General Satya Prakash Sharma said during a function in Chennai Port where three Coast Guard ships — ICGS Avvayar, ICGS Habbah Khatun and ICGS Rani Jindan — were decommissioned with full military honours.

E-office project for BSF ¤

Healthcare for the forces ¤

Myanmar-India cooperation Myanmar and India ¤commitment have reaffirmed their to keep the borders that connect the two countries free of terrorists and stable. Reaffirming the friendship and bilateral cooperation between the two countries, a national-level meeting between civil authorities of Myanmar-India border held in Nay Phi Taw in Myanmar examined ways to further consolidate the cooperation between the two sides. Myanmar was

PIB

INTERNAL SECURITY

www.geopolitics.in

The para military forces will now have their own AFMC! In other words, the long-standing

PRASHANTHNS

HEMANT RAWAT

Union Home Minister P Chidambaram has inaugurated the BSF’s e-office initiative called Project Prahari. This intranet project will provide online access to personnel, operational and administrative nodes of the BSF. Set up at a cost of `229 crore, the project will benefit about 1.98 lakh BSF personnel across all 237 battalion-level locations of the force. “It will bring the force commanders and the sector commanders in the close touch with the BSF senior officials at the headquarters… (and ensure) decision making is participative and cooperative effort. The idea is to move towards paperless office,” Chidambaram said after inaugurating the project. Cleared for implementation in February 2011, the project executed in record time has enthused other para forces to go in for similar projects. Next in line is the Indo Tibetan Border Police (ITBP).

dream of having a world-class medicare facility on the lines of the defence-run Armed Forces Medical College (AFMC) has now been cleared by the government .The mega healthcare project — that will care for over eight lakh strong para forces — will be called Central Armed Police Forces Institute of Medical Sciences (CAPFIMS). It will include a 500-bed general hospital, a 300-bed super specialty hospital, a nursing college and a school of paramedics. “This project, when completed, will fulfill a long-felt need of the central armed police forces for a world-class tertiary medical centre as well as for an assured stream of doctors, nurses and paramedics for induction into the forces,” Home Minister P Chidambaram said.

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represented by Deputy Home Minister Brigadier-General Kyaw Zan Myint and Home Secretary R K Singh led the Indian team. The national-level coordination of Myanmar-India border civil authorities has been held alternatively since 1994. The coordination has brought about considerable stability and improved the socioeconomic status of inhabitants of the border regions of the two countries.

February 2012

GEOPOLITICS

INTERNALSECURITY

TACKLING INSURGENCIES Historically, the Caucasus has been a hotbed of insurgencies. Russia has dealt with such rebellions in an iron-fisted manner. Can India learn from such a security-centric doctrine? Should India remodel its approach toward insurgents? UDDIPAN MUKHERJEE finds out

UROPE’S HIGHEST mountain, the double-peaked Mt Elbrus is no more a place of tranquility. Although tourists still climb up the terrain, an atmosphere of terror still persists. Earlier, in February 2011, Islamic separatists blew up a cable car pylon, making gondola cars collapse into the snow. Fortunately, nobody was hurt in that incident. In reaction, Russia barred tourists from visiting Elbrus until anti-terror operations were completed. Since time immemorial, the Caucasus has been a contentious geopolitical region at the border of Europe and Asia; flanked by the Black and the Caspian Seas. However, the region not only houses economically important minerals and energy resources, it has also been the breeding ground of historically significant insurgencies. North Caucasus was conquered by the erstwhile Tsarist empire through a series of invasions from 1817 to 1864. In the process, the regions of Chechnya, Ingushetia and Dagestan were annexed into Russia. The legacies of the nineteenth century insurgent leaders, namely Ghazi Mollah and Imam Shamil still reverberate in the forested regions and mountainous maze of the Caucasus. The present Russian provinces of Dagestan, Ingushetia, Kabardino-Balkaria and Chechnya continue to harbour sentiments of insurgency. In fact, in 2010, Dagestan witnessed almost half of all insurgent attacks in Russia. Its capital, Makhachkala has become a hub of insurgent activities. With Chechnya now ruled by the iron-fisted Ramzan Kadyrov, writes Shaun Walker for The Independent, chaotic Dagestan has become the heart of www.geopolitics.in

Russia’s Islamic terrorist problem, and almost every single day of late, the authorities are engaged in shootouts to kill Islamic fundamentalists — believers of Salafism or Wahabism. The attacks on the Moscow Metro in March 2010 were orchestrated by two female suicide bombers who also belonged to Dagestan. In September 2010, the Irganai hydroelectric plant was attacked. In June 2009, Dagestani Interior Minister Adilgirei Magomedtagirov was killed, allegedly by insurgents, according to Valery Dzutsev for the Jamestown Foundation. The Republic of Dagestan is ruled by believers of Sufism, whereas

INVOLVEMENT OF ARMY IN THE WAR AGAINST THE MAOISTS IN INDIA CAN LEAD TO RADICALISATION around 20 per cent of the subjects are Salafis. Such an antagonism, nevertheless, has been historical as the so-called Caucasian Emirate has struggled to counter the dominance of Moscow for the last two centuries. The Russians had fought two bloody wars and the concomitant insurgencies in Chechnya since 1994 onwards, interspersed with a ceasefire. Officially, Russian counterinsurgency (COIN) campaigns in Chechnya were halted as late as 2009. In fact, heavy-handed Russian approach in Chechnya coupled with the fertile grounds of agitation saw

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the insurgency spill over into the neighbouring provinces. Dagestan, however, has been dubbed the most dangerous place in North Caucasus. Russian approach to counterinsurgency While evaluating Russia’s COIN campaigns, Thomas Ricks in Foreign Policy magazine eulogises the security-centric approach adopted by the Russians in Chechnya, Afghanistan and even in Ukraine and Lithuania (in the 1940s and 50s). Yuri Zhukov in The Routledge Companion to Insurgency and Counter Insurgency, points out that since 1917, the erstwhile Soviet Union — and present Russia — has faced the onslaught of 24 significant insurgencies. Zhukov further mentions that apart from the profound losses suffered in Afghanistan and the first Chechnyan War, Russia had basically been able to successfully counter armed insurgencies. The methodology adopted by Moscow has been straightforward: massive mobilisation of troops to outnumber the insurgents by sheer volume, coupled with hardhearted approach of overwhelming firepower. It was a hundred thousand troops who salvaged Russian pride in the Second Chechen War. Further, to gather human intelligence, defections in insurgent ranks were skillfully encouraged. The support of the indigenous Chechen forces was vital in curbing the insurgency, opines Sean Renaud in his MA thesis to the Massey University. He further indicates that the unity of command worked critically well for the Russian forces in Chechnya. Moreover, airpower was used to soften targets on the ground, and to destroy and February 2012

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CRUSHING REBELLION: One hundred thousand troops salvaged Russian pride in the Second Chechen War by wiping out the rebels

harass isolated insurgent groups. To top these, Russian authorities were adept at manipulating media outlets that helped rein in public opinion. In Chechnya (post2001), the Russians effectively used more flexible operational groupings in the form of small unit operations. This enhanced the efficacy of the COIN operations. In addition to these, targeted killing of key insurgent commanders hastened the clearance of the decade-long insurgency. Role of civil militias Another interesting aspect of the Russian COIN in the Caucasus was to develop local militias. In a December 2010 report in Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst (CACA), Kevin Leahy informs that Dagestan’s President Magomedov had set forth a proposal to see volunteer militias, comprising native Dagestanis, to tackle the rebellion. However, it was novel as far as Russian COIN doctrine goes. Similar COIN strategy, notes Leahy, had been used, post-2001, in neighbouring Chechnya. The strategy in Chechnya involved four ethno-battalions, each comprised almost entirely of ethnic Chechens, undertaking COIN operations against their rebellious countrymen with assistance from the Russian military and Russian Special Forces. Employing locals in the fight against ethnic insurgents www.geopolitics.in

could be seen as unethical and barbaric. Lt. Colonel Robert M Cassidy of the US Army writes that during the Indian wars of the 19th century, the American army’s most skilled fighter, General George Crook “developed the tactic of inserting small teams from friendly Apache tribes into insurgent Apache groups so as to neutralise and psychologically unhinge them and to sap their will”. As a matter of fact, the same technique was replicated by the US Army in Philippines (1899-1902), and even in Vietnam. In Philippines, the Americans conducted a decentralised war of small mobile units, aided by native Filipinos. Further, analyst Max Boot ascribes the incentives of treating captured rebels well and of running hospitals and schools by the US Army as the additional reasons for their success in Philippines. Interestingly, Tomas Rid in an expository article titled, The Nineteenth Century Origins of COIN Doctrine in the Journal of Strategic Studies, writes that in the 1830s, the French conquerors of North Africa adopted an old practice of pre-Islamic Bedouin societies — the ghazya or raid — in order to nab the local insurgents. That is, a local method was employed to defeat the locals. In marauding expeditions, clansmen seized camels, goats, and livestock from other tribes, but loss of life was rare.

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Roadblocks to COIN According to Human Rights Watch, Russia’s COIN tactics include, among other repressive measures, targeted killings, torture, disappearances and extra-judicial executions. Naturally, such pressure from various domestic and international groups “is expected to exert normative constraints on the strategic and tactical choices of democratic governments”, as per Zhukov’s assessment. And Russia has been no exception in that regard. Brutalisation of the population, solely focusing on the security-centric approach and relegating to dungeons the winning hearts and minds (WHAM) concept of COIN did turn advantageous to the Russians. Nevertheless, rampant use of force, especially the zachistki — Russian term for security sweeps — has made the mountainous landscape of Caucasus more fertile in terms of recruitment for the guerrillas. Such sweeps more often than not coerce the disgruntled youth “to go to the forest”, i.e. join the insurgency. Times.com posits an appalling statistics of unemployment: up to 90 per cent in North Caucasus — sufficient cause for the youth to be jungle-bound. Coming back to COIN tactics, Jason Lyall, at the Harvard University, draws on a quasi-experimental research design that exploits variations in Russian COIN February 2012

g practices in Chechnya (2000-05). Lyall found, contrary to established claims, substantial evidence in favour of the contention that ethnicity shapes insurgent violence. In particular, his research concluded that: ¾ There was a 70 per cent decrease in the amount of insurgent violence after a Chechen sweep compared to a Russian sweep; ¾ Insurgents respond violently to Russian sweeps rather than Chechen sweeps; and ¾ That these changes in insurgent behaviour are attributable to information advantages held by co-ethnic militias who exploit intra-ethnic ties to destroy insurgent networks. Such a finding again corroborates the efficacy of the civil militias in dealing with armed rebellions. Renaud, however, expresses serious doubts regarding the efficacy of security-centric COIN in larger geographical areas than that in Chechnya, Dagestan or Ingushetia, or for larger populations. Moreover, unless some major bottlenecks are plugged, the Russian COIN would falter in realistic situations or in foreign climes, as had happened in Afghanistan. Even the most optimistic supporter of Russian COIN, Mark Kramer of Harvard, raises some important problems for the Russians. First, a seemingly endless, unwinnable war was captured through a massive deployment of force in Chechnya. If the number of armed assailants increases, then to keep an insurgent-troop ratio of 1:50 may not be feasible. For example, in the case of the Indian Maoists, who are able to recruit around 5,000 youth and adolescent girls from a single district in India the securitycentric approach becomes unthinkable. Second, insurgents in Caucasus aim for soft targets like civilian population in Moscow and other capital cities. Moreover, the Caucasian insurgents use suicide bombers and unleash a deadly mine war. In fact, on an average, 20 mines per day come in the way of the troops. The Russian security forces suffer psychological setbacks while countering ambushes. To deal with the guerrillas in the hilly tracts, the forces demand more sophisticated equipment. Third, Kramer argues that the root causes of insurgency in the Caucasus are an inept administration and blatant corruption. Hence, a prolonged securitycentric COIN will “spawn public restiveness and cynicism”. www.geopolitics.in

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Probably, such inherent criticisms of the Russian COIN culture made Vladimir Putin announce, in early 2011, to invest $13.4 billion in 37 new projects over the next decade in the volatile North Caucasus region. Putin himself has noted, reports Mikhail Alexseev, that a lack of gainful employment (nesostoyatel’nost) has increased the pool of young people in the North Caucasus willing to join the predominantly jihadist insurgency. The WHAM component, therefore, was finding its way back into the lethal Russian

MASSIVE TROOP MOBILISATION AND FIREPOWER HELPED RUSSIA ERADICATE INSURGENCIES doctrine. At the same time, however, the Russians have proceeded with targeted killings and incarcerations (TK-TI). Such loss of leadership has created gaps in key positions within the rebel organisations. What can India learn? Though COIN principles may not have universal applicability, effective lessons could be derived through deductive

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reasoning from the Russian case study in the Caucasus and beyond. Though COIN tactics are locale-specific and culturecentric, certain broad contours nevertheless could be drawn. 1. India is mostly concerned with three major insurgencies, viz. in the NorthEast, Kashmir and the Maoist insurrection. The three cases have different historical, cultural and political undertones. India has dealt with these — keeping in mind their regional and ethnic specificities — within the overall ambit of the legalities imposed by the judicature. 2. India has effectively implemented the population-centric WHAM approach in the case of Kashmir. After a period of ‘meeting the gun with the gun’, the NorthEast now is being dealt through ‘talks’. It would be pragmatic enough if India proceeds with the WHAM-approach in dealing with the Maoist rebellion. Human intelligence could be best gathered in a WHAM-based COIN and it is the most effective parameter to nab the top leaders of the left ultras. To decapitate the insurgency — by removing the top bosses and drying up the fertile recruitment grounds for the rebels — the WHAM-based COIN has to be followed meticulously. History has proven it in the Russian case. 3. Russia has successfully tamed internal armed disturbances through its securitybased COIN. However, the insurgencies have cropped up in an unending fashion. February 2012

g INTERNALSECURITY the level of platoons, must fight the ‘guerrilla like a guerrilla’. The Russians have successfully practised that. However, in the Indian case, the paramilitary and the state police forces have to do the job that the Red Army had done on most occasions. 9. Equally important is the building-up of civil militias. However, legitimisation of the same is required. Hence, local ethnic youths need to be provided jobs in the constabulary. It suffices three purposes: This reduces the ambience of unemployment, it helps in gathering viable intelligence, and it reduces the support for the guerrillas as one tribal youth with job means four to five satisfied locals. 10. Last, but probably the key to longterm peace in India and anywhere, has to

MODEL FOR INDIA: A unified command structure hastened the success for Russia in Chechnya and India badly needs this as far as the Maoist insurgency is concerned

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The insurgent leaders had been eliminated in a discreet manner. Even then, recruitment hasn’t stopped and that has forced Putin to think along other lines. India, thus, needs to avoid such strategic loopholes. 4. India needs to focus on WHAM-based COIN coalesced with TK-TI as a viable mode of tackling insurgencies. Dynamics peculiar to a region or ideology notwithstanding, Indian COIN can rely on this approach as an overall strategic measure. 5. Excessive use of artillery and airpower needs to be avoided in the Indian case. Presently, the Indian Air Force supplements the paramilitary in terms of logistics in the irregular warfare against the Maoists. That seems to be fair enough. The involvement of the Army and Air Force in the war against the Maoists can only lead to further radicalisation of the conflict. Moreover, in such a scenario, pressures emanating from the rights groups will likely cause a derailment of the COIN operations. 6. A unified command structure precipitated success for Russia in Chechnya. India badly needs this as far as the Maoist insurgency straddling several states is concerned. Constitutional obligation

stands as a barrier in this regard. However, operational coherence could be achieved with a unity of purpose between the Union Home Ministry and the affected state governments. 7. Lack of modern ammunition and poor facilities had severely marred the efficiency of the Russian forces. Similar problems exist in India. It goes without saying that such logistical obstacles need to be eradicated. Anti-landmine techniques must be incorporated. Standard Operating Procedures must be followed at all levels of the command structure so as to avoid major ambushes. 8. Small operational mobile units, viz. of

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be good governance, weeding out corruption and empowering the grassroots’ administration. “The future of war is not the son of Desert Storm, but the stepchild of Chechnya”, says General Krulak. With such rhetorical soothsaying, it means no harm to extract a page from the Russian COIN doctrine, and implement it in the world’s largest democracy — before it shrieks as a failed state. (Dr Uddipan Mukherjee is an Asstt. Professor at BPPIMT [Kolkata, India] and a Strategic Analyst at ITS, [Landshut, Germany & Gais, Italy]) February 2012

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IMPERMISSIBLE INVESTIGATIONS A “pragmatic balance between the competing interests of personal liberty of the accused and public safety” is required while conducting investigations to unearth crimes and detect the criminals, argues SANKAR SEN

¾ No lie-detector test should be administered except on the basis of the consent of the accused. An option should be given to the accused whether he wishes to avail such a test, ¾ The consent should be recorded before a judicial magistrate, www.geopolitics.in

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AWYERS AND human rights activists have welcomed the latest judgment of the Supreme Court that narco, polygraph or brain mapping tests cannot be conducted on anyone without one’s consent. In a significant ruling, the apex court described the forcible administration of this test as an “unwarranted intrusion” on the personal liberty of a person accused of an offence. The court was deciding on a bunch of petitions filed by several accused including Godmother Shantokhben Jadeja and Arun Gawli against the use of narco analysis, brain mapping and lie-detector tests on them as a part of investigation. The court added that even in cases where a person voluntarily submitted to undergo this test to establish his or her innocence, the National Human Rights Commission’s “Guidelines” had to be observed. The NHRC published the guidelines for the administration of polygraph test (lie-detector test) on an accused in 2000. These guidelines, inter-alia, are:

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February 2012

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EXTRACTING THE TRUTH: Brain-mapping has become an important part of the investigative technique of several security agencies

¾ During the hearing before the magistrate, the alleged should have been represented by a lawyer. The actual recording of the lie detector shall be done by an independent agency and conducted in the presence of a lawyer, ¾ A full medical and factual narration of the manner of information received must be on record. The apex court further observed that these tests were in contravention of the Right to Silence that an accused enjoyed.

A WRONG DOSE CAN SEND THE SUBJECT INTO COMA, OR EVEN RESULT IN DEATH The Law Commission in its 108th report specifically warned the government against any dilution of the Right to Silence in view of such trends in countries like the United Kingdom. While dismissing the pleas of various state governments that the scientific methods should www.geopolitics.in

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be supported in public interest for efficient investigation of criminal cases, the court said: “Questionable scientific reliability of these techniques comes into conflict with the standard of proof ‘beyond reasonable doubt’, which is an essential feature of criminal trials.” The court further observed: “If we permit the forcible administration of these techniques, it could be the first step on a very slippery slope as far as the standards of police behaviour are concerned.” The judgment, as expected, has evoked critical response from police investigators and approbation from lawyers and human rights activists. Some senior police investigators are of the view that the use of these techniques provides useful and critical leads in some cases. Narco-analysis did provide useful leads in the Telgi stamps scandal, according to some CBI officers. As far as the CBI is concerned, now the investigation into several cases where narco-tests are pending would be hit. In the Arushi Talwar case, the CBI took the permission of the Talwar couple before conducting tests on them. It seeks the court’s consent only when the suspect refuses to undergo narco-analysis and investigators feel that it is crucial. Now, refusal by the suspects would end the matter. After the Supreme Court verdict, the main accused in the Ajmer Blast case, Devendra Gupta, has filed a petition in the local court seeking exemption from this test. Lawyers and civil rights groups, however, have welcomed the judgment. Mumbai-based senior lawyer Majid Memon has said that the judgment is important in the context of our country where many a time poor and innocent people are forced to speak against themselves. Lawyer Prashant Bhusan has dubbed narco-analysis a very “imperfect and hazardous procedure which gives incorrect information”. The efficacy of narco-analysis and other tests is often over-stressed by the police. The police are misguided to think the narco-analysis is a boon to the police to make breakthroughs. The technique is neither modern nor an internationally-accepted one. Narco-analysis first captured the public’s attention when Robert House, a Texas obstetrician, used the drug “scopolamine” on two prisoners. These drugs relax the individual’s defences to the extent that he unwillingly reveals the truth he has been trying to conceal. Drugs such as barbiturates and sodium February 2012

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TOOLS OF THE TRADE: Polygraph machines record the blood pressure, pulse rate and other bodily changes that are affected by a person's emotional conditions

pentothal have become the drugs of choice. But by the 1950s many scientists declared the notion of a truth serum invalid and many courts have ruled that testimony gained through them was inadmissible. It is true that by disrupting defensive patterns barbiturates are somewhat helpful in interrogation, but even under the best of conditions they will elicit an output contaminated by deception, fantasy and garbled speech. According to a well-known forensic expert with considerable experience in participating in truth serum tests, these tests are occasionally effective on people, who, if properly interrogated, would have revealed the truth anyway. On the other hand, the person who indulged in falsehood will be able to continue the deception even after the effects of the drug. Further, wrong doses can send the subject into coma, or even result in death. Polygraph and brain-mapping Apart from narco-tests, there are two other kinds of tests, which are popularly used on suspects for extraction of truth, namely, polygraph and brain-mapping tests. In polygraph test, the machine records the blood pressure, pulse rate and other bodily changes that are affected by a person’s www.geopolitics.in

emotional conditions. Recorded changes are then studied, analysed and co-related in response to specific questions and other stimuli. Results obtained from polygraph tests are not very credible, as the device measures body’s reaction to different types of questions. The test is not scientific and “inherently biased against the truthful”.

ACTIVISTS HAVE WELCOMED SUPREME COURT’S JUDGMENT FORBIDDING TESTS WITHOUT CONSENT Developed and patented in 1995 by neurologist Lawrence Farewell, the brainmapping test is claimed to be an alternative to the polygraph test. Here the subject is first interrogated to find out whether he is concealing any information. Then sensors are attached to the

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subject’s head and the person is seated before a computer monitor. He is then shown certain images or made to hear certain sounds. The sensors monitor electrical activity in the brain and register p300 waves, which are generated only if the subject has connection with the stimulus picture or sound. The subject is not asked any questions here. In America, the Federal Bureau of Investigation has been making use of “brain-mapping technique” in criminal investigations. This verdict of the Supreme Court now poses a challenge to police investigators and law-enforcement officers. They will have to rely on diligent, painstaking investigations to unearth crimes and detect the criminals. The apex court in this case has also pointed out that though the arguments on public safety “merit consideration”, it is the task of the legislature to arrive at a “pragmatic balance between the competing interests of personal liberty of the accused and public safety”. The author, a former Director of National Police Academy and former Director General of National Human Rights Commission, is at present a Senior Fellow, Institute of Social Sciences February 2012

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BONDING TOGETHER NORTH KOREA'S UNPREDICTABLE AND UNKNOWN LEADER

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India matters for America in its new strategic outlook

ADDING TO AFGHANISTAN'S SECURITY AND DEVELOPMENT

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DECONSTRUCTING India’s economic growth, information technology prowess, and rising power have reshaped global perceptions of India and India’s perception of itself. In the coming months, there will be both challenges and opportunities for India in its dealings with the rest of the world. To identify them, YAMINI CHOWDHURY talks to a number of practitioners of and experts on Indian diplomacy “We know what we are, but know not what we may be” -William Shakespeare

T IS just not Shakespeare, but even the eternal optimist, who envisions a roseate future for the world, views tomorrow with a sense of foreboding. The future has always remained inscrutable, a soothsayer’s nemesis, a chimera on the distant horizon, or, as Albert Einstein says, “a stubbornly persistent illusion”. This uncertainty gets compounded when one attempts to draw a perceptive portrait of a country’s foreign policy challenges in the foreseeable future, especially when the country in question happens to be India. Will 2012 be the litmus test for India’s foreign policy virility? Will a country that is expected to see a reorganisation of political arrangements be able to make advances on the diplomatic front? Will the global financial apocalypse, capricious, often chaotic, ground realities in the neighbourhood and a constantlyevolving global security milieu have an import on India’s rise among the comity of nations? Finally, will the wave of protests across political systems on www.geopolitics.in

domestic issues deal a sledgehammer blow to the country’s rising clout? These complicated questions have inaugurated an intriguing debate among grizzled foreign policy experts and strategic analysts. Clearly, the challenges are legion — from engaging with an increasingly hegemonic, expansionist China to

MANAGING THE US-CHINA-INDIA RELATIONSHIP MAY BE THE PRINCIPAL CHALLENGE IN THE FUTURE strengthening the peace process in the subcontinent as a nuclear-armed Pakistan sinks into a morass of scandals and scams; from fighting internecine battles on home turf to emerging as a possible driver of the world economy; and from enhancing the pirouette towards South East Asia to assisting in the diminution of

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tensions and violence in the West Asia (the Middle East) tinderbox. Further, relations with the United States and Russia continue to command attention on the foreign policy radar. According to Ambassador Rajiv Bhatia, former Indian envoy to Kenya, Myanmar, Mexico and South Africa, “2012 will be a year full of challenges for India. Managing the triangular US-China-India relationship may emerge as the principal challenge in the immediate future. If handled adroitly, it will help us deal with an unstable Pakistan and cope with both rising tensions and opportunities in East Asia. Competition with China in Africa will be another major challenge — even if South Block denies the very existence of this competition.” Focus on flashpoints In order to evaluate the geo-political challenges that India is likely to face in 2012, one needs to objectively analyse the potential flashpoints in the Asia-Pacific region. Professor Denis Venter, former Nelson Mandela Chair, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, and Executive Director, Africa Consultancy & Research, Pretoria, South February 2012

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ALL-WEATHER ALLIES: The Beijing-Islamabad nexus will be continue to pose major challenges for India in the foreseeable future

Africa, emphasises, “India’s concerns are exacerbated by the worrisome situation in Pakistan and the epitome of instability — Afghanistan. Iran, which aspires for nuclear power status, while being ruled as a theocracy that belongs to the ‘Dark Ages’ and a leader, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who suffers from what may be called the Napoleon syndrome, has created an unpredictable situation. To the east of the Indian subcontinent, three other unstable situations await: piracy in and around the Malacca Straits; increasingly strained relations between China and Vietnam over oil-prospecting rights and territorial waters in the South China Sea and the looming threat of North Korea, where the latest clone in the Kim dynasty, an inexperienced and relatively young leader Kim Jong-un has taken over the reins just recently. As another aspiring nuclear state, North Korea, perhaps the most militarised country in the world today, poses a ‘real and present danger’ in East Asia and the Pacific.” Peace in Af-Pak — Just a pipedream As a central contributor to the development process in Afghanistan, India is aware that stabilising the region is patently in the subcontinent’s interest. With the incumbent Hamid Karzai government failing to inspire much confidence and the date for withdrawal of US troops drawing closer, the Afghan problem hangs over us like a Damocles sword. www.geopolitics.in

Evaluating India’s challenges in the region, Professor Rajesh Rajagopalan, Professor, Centre for International Politics, Organisation and Disarmament, Jawaharlal Nehru University, asserts, “India has few options currently because much of our effort has been in building Afghanistan’s economic and social infrastructure. This has given us ‘soft power’, but that will be of little value if the withdrawal of US forces is followed by a civil

THE ARAB SPRING HAS LED TO THE FALL OF TYRANNICAL DYNASTIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST war, as the current expectations are. That war is likely to bring the Taliban to power because they are both brutal and supported by the Pakistan Army. India needs to begin building its links with the old Northern Alliance, as well as with the other groups and ethnic communities that are unlikely to be happy about the Taliban and Pakistan gaining control over Kabul. Even if such forces cannot prevent the Taliban from gaining control over Kabul,

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they can ensure that Taliban control remains incomplete, just as it was between 2006 and 2011.” The escalating political situation in Pakistan, triggered by the killing of Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad, resembles an intractable quandary with each passing day. While ‘Memogate’ exposed the dysfunctional interplay between the Pakistan Army and the civilian government, the contempt of court notice issued by the Supreme Court of the country to Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani has reinforced the growing disenchantment with a government impaired by insidious corruption and political brinkmanship. The steady rise of Imran Khan and the impending return of former President Pervez Musharraf have exposed the strong political undercurrents in this unpredictable state. Clearly, as Pakistan teeters on the brink, India’s perpetual quest for peace and stability gets hampered. Commenting on the lamentable reality in Pakistan, Gurmeet Kanwal, Director, Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS), maintains, “India is threatened by creeping Talibanisation that could sneak across the Radcliffe Line into the country. IndoPak relations will continue to drift in 2012, as the presence of a weak government would preclude the initiation of major policy proposals from Pakistan. While Imran Khan may not be able to translate large rallies into votes, Musharraf may face a carefully stage-managed arrest on arrival, followed by bail and a long-drawn legal battle. He clearly enjoys the support of Army Chief General Pervez Kayani and the Army will bank on him to provide a ‘third front’ to defeat Asif Ali Zardari and Nawaz Sharif, ably buttressed by large-scale rigging.” Countering China As the United States returns to Asia as a ‘resident’ power, and China, once viewed as a benign power, adopts truculent postures, the dynamics of Asia-Pacific’s security architecture is expected to change rapidly, believes Dr Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, Senior Fellow in Security Studies, Observer Research Foundation. “Asia-Pacific remains dynamic for a variety of reasons. First of all, there is the simultaneous rise of three new powers — India, China and Japan. Meanwhile, the US is on a relative decline which plays out in different ways as it deals with Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and India to a lesser extent. Russia, China and North Korea, February 2012

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EMERGING POWERS: It remains to be seen if BRICS will advance India's unbeatable case for a permanent seat in the Security Council

despite having adversarial ties with the US, view it as a stabilising force rather than otherwise. On the other hand, China and Russia at least hope that they will be able to replace the US. American allies — Japan, Taiwan and Australia — who in the last ten years have been disappointed and worried about the US’s lack of focus in the Asia-Pacific and increasing presence in the Middle East and Afghanistan, consider the role of the US to be valuable. Though countries in South-East Asia such asVietnam, Laos and Cambodia have become much more open to the US, they are leaning towards the predominant strategy of open balancing, rather than the 90’s strategy of hedging,” articulates Dr Rajagopalan. Though 2012 is the Year of the Dragon, the rapid reversal of fortunes in the region would make it difficult for China to breathe fire, particularly in the light of forthcoming elections and economic slowdown. Dr Mohan Malik, Professor, Asian Security at Asia-Pacific Centre For Security Studies, Honolulu, says, “The www.geopolitics.in

pushback by the United States and China’s Asian neighbours over the last year or so has made the Chinese leadership aware of the costs of expecting ‘too much too soon’ and it’s indeed been a sobering lesson. However, I expect the new leadership to be

INDIA IS THREATENED BY TALIBANISATION THAT COULD SNEAK ACROSS THE RADCLIFFE LINE equally, if not more, assertive and intransigent on vital domestic and international issues. In fact, China’s long-term allies — North Korea, Burma, Pakistan and Iran — will experience serious problems that will impinge upon Beijing’s core interests. Chi-

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na will be dragged into providing stronger support to its friends and allies (mostly pariah states) or risk damaging its credentials as a great power.” India’s steady rise on the world stage, accompanied by a re-alignment of its foreign and security policies, including close ties with the United States and strengthened relations with Japan, Vietnam and other ASEAN countries, is increasingly viewed by Beijing as detrimental to its own regional and global role and manoeuvring space in Asia, insists Dr Rajagopalan. “Though India today is much more comfortable with balancing and moderating China’s rise, leading to closer ties in the last few years, there has also been a simultaneous rise of mutual suspicions. Even though both India and China recognise their inevitable role in shaping the Asian security order, they differ radically on the kind of Asian layout for the future. While India harbours an inclusive approach, China’s exclusivist approach appears to be directed against India, the US and Japan”, she reckons. “The history and unsettled boundary issues as well as their respective roles in the emerging Asian strategic framework have created severe constraints in working out a good partnership between India and China”, continues Dr Rajagopalan. “So even though economic interactions between the two sides are expected to touch $100 billion even before 2015, the trust deficit between New Delhi and Beijing is not something that is going to change dramatically in the next few years,” she concludes. The changing geopolitical landscape of the Asia-Pacific region has brought several multi-lateral groupings into sharp focus. As New Delhi prepares to host the Brazil, India, China, South Africa (BRICS) Summit in April 2012, one can expect the mercury to rise even within diplomatic circles. “Making the BRICS summit a shining success, without hurting India’s interests would be the fundamental dilemma facing hosts New Delhi,” envisions Ambassador Bhatia. “India’s diplomacy should ensure that this grouping does not become anti-US or hampers further consolidation of the India, Brazil, South Africa, (IBSA). But it remains to be seen if BRICS will advance India’s unbeatable case for a permanent seat in the Security Council,” he wonders. The fire in West Asia When a Tunisian fruit-seller Mohammed Bouazizi set himself on fire in December February 2012

EQUITABLE PARTNERSHIP: India's rise on the world stage, and close ties with the US are viewed by Beijing as detrimental to its own role

2010, it fuelled an emancipatory revolution throughout the Middle East and North Africa. The Arab Spring, stirred by galloping corruption, kleptocracy and cronyism, has led to the fall of tyrannical dynasties in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and Libya, and threatens to shake the edifice of other monarchies. Though India’s stand on the spiral of violence in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has been rather muted, it is unlikely to change in 2012. “Since India’s foreign policy in the region is guided by oil resources and the presence of the Indian diaspora, any use of force by Western powers for a regime change in the region, or even a facilitating role adopted by the outside powers, pushes India to take a tough stance both on a policy and political perspective,” believes Balaji Chandramohan, editor of Asia for World Security Network. “Since India has always maintained that any use of force must be authorised by the UN Security Council, it will strive for the same even if it is hard to get,” he stresses. Iran’s nuclear aspiration, which has www.geopolitics.in

sparked off outraged reactions from the West and precipitated a vertiginous fall in its relations with Israel, is an issue that remains as combustive as ever. Though India has made its apprehensions known by its vote in International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), it is unlikely to join a fullfledged sanctions programme and prosecute sterner actions, maintains Bharat Karnad, Research Professor in National Security Studies at the Centre for Policy Research. “Tehran’s willingness to export oil to an energy-deficient India despite payment difficulties, and its decision to allow Indian goods bulk transit to the Central Asian Republics via the Iranian port of Chahbahar on the North Arabian Sea must prompt India to strengthen its separate modus vivendi with Iran, rather than further alienate it by joining in the US-led effort to penalise it,” he suggests. ...And the chill in Europe As India stands hobbled by a falling rupee and burgeoning fiscal deficit, it may not be able to offer much support to the Eurozone countries. But there are certain

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invaluable lessons that India can learn from the Eurozone crisis, asserts Smita Purushottam, Ambassador of India to Venezuela. “Capital surplus export-oriented countries with strong and hightech manufacturing bases, like Germany, have weathered the crises better than countries that increasingly rely on their services or the overly speculative financial services sector. India must redouble its efforts to strengthen the manufacturing sector with a supporting eco-system like skilled workers, educated and healthy population. This would provide greater stability to our growth efforts and give us a more assertive voice in international affairs”, she suggests. “We did not come here to fear the future. We came here to shape it,” said President Barack Obama in his address to the Joint Session of US Congress on September 9, 2009. It remains to be seen how India can take a cue from Obama’s inspiring words and face the myriad diplomatic challenges of 2012 to shape its future. (The author is a Delhi-based journalist) February 2012

PIB

GEOPOLITICS

DIPLOMACY

OBAMA’S NEW STRATEGIC GUIDANCE

In the Pentagon’s latest considered outlook, India is viewed as a key strategic partner in the US quest to maintain peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region, points out GURMEET KANWAL

ONTRARY TO Deng Xiaoping’s advice to his successors to “hide your capacities and bide your time”, China has been rather assertive in recent years in establishing itself as a world power. Chinese belligerence in dealing with its neighbours and, more particularly, in staking its claim to disputed islands in the South China Sea, has sent alarm bells ringing across the AsiaPacific region. The world is no longer sure whether China will continue to behave responsibly while discharging its international obligations and conducting its foreign affairs. A direct consequence of perceived Chinese assertiveness has been the new strategic guidance for the United States announced by President Barack Obama early in the New Year. Announced during a rare visit to the Pentagon on January 7, 2012, the new strategy is entitled: “Sustaining US Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defence.” As the US winds down its wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, it is reorienting its priorities towards the new challenges emanating from the Asia-

Pacific region. The President said that the strategy review centred on creating the future military the country would need after the “long wars of the last decade are over”. The new strategy seeks to find a balance between fiscal prudence and the challenge of passing through a ‘moment of transition’ in global affairs. President Obama said, “Our military will be leaner, but the world must know the United States is going to maintain our military superiority with armed forces that are agile, flexible and ready for the full range of contingencies and threats. In military terms, the strategic guidance dilutes the current requirement for the US armed forces to be capable of fighting and winning wars in two major theatres simultaneously. It seeks to build future capacities for fighting one major war while holding off an aggressor in another theatre. Even when US forces are committed to a large-scale operation in one region, they will be capable of denying the objectives of… or imposing unacceptable costs on… an opportunistic aggressor in a second region.” The new strategy states significantly that the US will “maintain its ability to project power in areas in SEARCH AND DESTROY: Budget cuts are unlikely to affect the ability of American Special Forces to conduct precision strikes

which our access and freedom to operate are challenged”. This postulation probably refers to China’s ‘anti-access and areadenial’ (A2/AD) strategy. China’s muchtouted A2/AD strategy relies on anti-ship ballistic missiles such as the purposebuilt Dong Feng 21-D, conventionallyarmed attack submarines, anti-ship mines and swarms of small vessels, to attack US aircraft carriers that approach China’s coast in a war, for example to come to the aid of Taiwan during a future Chinese operation to liberate Taiwan. Another critical aspect of the new strategic guidance is the reduction in force levels envisioned by President Obama. He announced spending cuts of $487 billion over the next ten years. However, this amount is a small percentage of the current annual budget of $650 billion of the US Department of Defence. This amounts to 45 per cent of the world’s total annual defence expenditure. The new objectives for the US armed forces include domination of the struggle for supremacy in Asia, which has some of the world’s fastest-growing economies and the ability to respond to emerging crises. The US will trim down its forward presence in Europe, reduce 90,000 personnel and, simultaneously, acquire greater combat capability in the Asia-Pacific region, with new bases in Australia and elsewhere. The US Army’s size will be reduced from 570,000 to 490,000 soldiers. To maintain its combat edge and the ‘full spectrum’ range of capabilities required to meet emerging threats and challenges, the downsizing US military

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STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP: India realises that its growing external relations with new collaborators are causing some concern in China

will rely on a ‘Joint Force’ that will retain its accumulated expertise and institutional abilities for mounting a range of missions, including some that have a very low probability of occurrence at present. The US forces will retain the flexibility to ensure that if the need arises, the required combat elements can be quickly expanded, drawing on the all-volunteer military as well as the National Guard and the Reserves. The DoD will also be able to quickly review and alter-force structures in consonance with emerging challenges. While the President refrained from clearly naming China as a threat, the strategy document said, “Over the longterm, China’s emergence as a regional power will have the potential to affect the US economy and our security in a variety of ways… Our two countries have a strong stake in peace and stability in East Asia and an interest in building a cooperative bilateral relationship. However, the growth of China’s military power must be accompanied by greater clarity of its strategic intentions in order to avoid causing friction in the region.” In a critique of the new strategic guidance, The Telegraph has written: “As for other flashpoints, few will be surprised that the US policy stresses the goals of www.geopolitics.in

containing Iran and guaranteeing free passage through the Strait of Hormuz.” “On a purely military level, two points stand out. The US might be cutting its army, but it has ruled out reducing its fleet of 11 aircraft carriers, each of which packs more punch than the entire air forces of most countries. While China’s defence budget has recorded double-digit increases for the past decade, it has launched only one carrier — an old Russian model of doubtful combat value. Second, Obama stressed his determination to invest in ‘intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance’. Put simply, the US will seek to extend its lead in the most advanced combat systems: where scores of troops — and hundreds of support staff — might once have been required to dispatch a senior al-Qaeda operative, now one unmanned drone can do the job.” As always, China’s state-owned media were quick in their response and emphasised that China’s military modernisation was in keeping with its legitimate defence needs and did not pose a threat to the US or any other country. Chinese media warned the US government not to “recklessly practice militarism” or engage in “war mongering”. Published by the official Xinhua news agency, another sharply

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worded commentary urged the US to play a constructive role in the region. The Global Times newspaper said China would “pay the price” if it retreated in order to appease the United States. India as key US strategic partner The new US strategy identifies the target area for future conventional conflict as “the arc extending from the Western Pacific and East Asia into the Indian Ocean region and South Asia”. The strategy expects and banks on major military support from partner countries like India, while seeking to be their “security partner of choice”. Significantly, the strategy document explicitly views India as a key strategic partner in the US quest to maintain peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region: “The United States is investing in a long-term strategic partnership with India to support its ability to serve as a regional economic anchor and provider of security in the broader Indian Ocean region.” While the possibility of a common future threat from China has not been explicitly spelt out, it is implicit in the broad underpinnings of the new US strategy. There is apprehension in both India and the US that China may not behave responsibly in future, or that it might February 2012

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FORMIDABLE FIREPOWER: The US might be cutting down the size of its Army, but it has ruled out reducing its fleet of 11 carriers

implode due to its internal contradictions. Though the probability of both these occurrences is viewed as extremely low, it is felt that should either of them come to pass, both India and the US will need strong strategic partners to manage the crisis. As large democracies with an ever-increasing mutuality of interests it is natural for both to rely on each other. However, this is still an emerging viewpoint and, at least in India, different branches of the government look at the challenge from China differently. In order to evaluate whether India should hop on to the US bandwagon to meet the Chinese challenge, it is necessary to analyse the present state of the India-China strategic relationship and its likely contours in the future. China and India, both Asian giants and emerging world powers, have begun to exercise immense influence in international political and economic affairs. Political and economic relations between India and China are much better now than these have ever been since the 1962 border war between the two countries. However, growth in the strategic and security relationship has not kept pace with the political and economic relationship. Despite prolonged negotiations at the political level to resolve the longstanding territorial and boundary dispute between the two countries, there has been little progress on this sensitive issue. China has a clandestine nuclear warheads-ballistic missiles-military hardware technology transfer relationship with Pakistan that causes apprehension in India. Also, in recent years, China www.geopolitics.in

appears to have raised the ante by way of its shrill political rhetoric, frequent transgressions across the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and unprecedented cyber attacks on Indian networks. The security relationship has the potential to act as a spoiler and will ultimately determine whether the two Asian giants will clash or cooperate for mutual gains. While the India-China relationship is relatively stable at the strategic level, China’s political, diplomatic and military assertiveness at the tactical level is acting as a dampener. Several major areas of concern are limiting the growth of the bilateral relationship. The foremost among these is the “all-weather” friendship between China and Pakistan that is, in Chinese President Hu Jintao’s words, “higher than the mountains and deeper than the oceans”. China’s transfer of nuclear warhead designs, fissile material and missile technology, and its joint weapons and equipment development programme with Pakistan, that includes Al Khalid tanks, F-22 frigates and FC1/JF-17 fighter aircraft, has considerably strengthened Pakistan’s war-waging potential and enabled it to launch and sustain a proxy war in Jammu and Kashmir and in other parts of India. Other contentious issues include China’s continuing opposition to India’s nuclear weapons programme; its deep engagement of the countries around India and its efforts to develop port facilities along the Indian Ocean littoral. All of these moves are seen by Indian analysts to be part of a carefully orchestrated plan aimed at the strategic encirclement of

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India to counter-balance India’s growing power and influence in Asia. India realises that its growing external relations with its new strategic partners are causing some concern in China. However, India is unlikely to ever form a military alliance with the US as India has always pursued an independent foreign policy and cherishes its strategic autonomy. There is a major convergence of interests between India and the US and India’s strategic relationship with the US needs not come in the way of India-China relations, which have their own strategic significance for India. Growing political and economic relations with the US do not necessarily have to lead to a military alliance. However, like the US, India must adopt a hedging strategy in order to be able to deal with the possibility of an errant Chinese behaviour in future after China has completed its military modernisation. In as much as that, India should continue to forge a strong strategic partnership with the US while simultaneously pursuing good relations with China. Should a future Indian government decide to join hands with the US militarily, it must carefully guard against being sucked into a new arms race in its quest to provide the support that the new US strategy demands from partner countries. India must learn the lessons of the Soviet collapse at the end of the Cold War and avoid such an economically crippling venture. Pragmatic realism is the answer. (The author is Director, Centre for Land Warfare Studies, New Delhi) February 2012

GEOPOLITICS

GLOBALWATCH

CHINA’S ECONOMIC DATA ARE (STILL) NOT CREDIBLE Understanding the Chinese economy through Chinese data has serious flaws. The imbalance between consumption and investment in China has serious consequences for the world economy, argues Derek Scissors

HINA ON January 17 announced that gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2011 slowed to 9.2 per cent. Over the next days and weeks, there will be a stream of pontificating about what this means. There is a good chance that everyone involved will be pontificating about nonsense. China’s economic statistics are usually inconsistent — and occasionally wildly inconsistent-and do not seem to be improving in quality. For 2011 GDP in particular, Beijing is very likely exaggerating growth. (Some years it understates.) Rather than focussing on reported figures, the US should prepare for a weak Chinese economy but one that may begin to rebal-

ance in 2012. It should also engage in long-overdue independent estimation of China’s performance. Impeaching the Growth Result There is a cottage industry that gains directly or indirectly from insisting that Chinese numbers are fairly accurate and far better than they were during the bad old days of 15 years ago. But reasons for skepticism abound. On one side are 9.2 per cent growth last year and 10.4 per cent in 2010. On the other is evidence of a far sharper slowdown. Auto sales, for example, plunged to 2.5 per cent growth last year from 32 per cent growth in 2010. There are also figures that can be corroborated with foreign partners. More than four-fifth of China’s shipbuilding tonnage is for export. New ship orders plummeted 52 per cent outright in 2011. Growth in imports of crude oil slipped to 6 per cent growth last year from 17.5 per cent in 2010. There are indirect indicators of a much slower economy. Monetary policy has long been extremely loose, featuring negative real interest rates. Yet the central government began loosening further several months ago, a strange reaction to growth still over 9 per cent. China still boasts the world’s largest foreign trade surplus and net inward investment. Foreign exchange reserves fell in the fourth quarter, suggesting capital flight. That would translate into a sluggish world economy being more attractive than China’s own. Premier Skeptics Problems go well beyond 2011 GDP. It has been over a decade since former Premier

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Zhu Rongji wondered how all provinces could grow faster than the country as a whole. The problem persists and, in fact, was worse in 2011 than in 2008. The trends in national and provincial growth clearly match, but provinces remain unwilling to report accurate numbers. Such unwillingness extends deeply into Chinese statistics. Li Keqiang, himself set to become premier in 2012, once dismissed GDP figures as “man-made”. A serial revision process was intended to improve the quality of the data. There has never been a downward GDP revision, though, which indicates more unwillingness to report certain results. Further, only some data are revised, creating a mismatch between revised and unrevised elements. The revision process is indeed man-made and may have worsened data quality. Some Chinese figures are so absurd that they do not require a premier to doubt them. There is no pretense of a true unemployment rate but instead only a figure for “registered urban unemployed,” a number that is not allowed to exceed 5 per cent. It is considered too dangerous to announce true urban joblessness, much less the far higher rural number. With GDP and unemployment, the third pillar of macroeconomics is inflation. The consumer price index rose 5.4 per cent last year. The implicit GDP deflator-the gap between the arithmetic rise in GDP and announced real growth — was 8.3 per cent. The GDP deflator fluctuates more widely than the consumer index, and the latter is acknowledged by the Chinese government to have flaws. But price February 2012

g GLOBALWATCH instability is considered sensitive. If political imperatives prevent release of better inflation numbers, any reasonable unemployment figure, useful revisions, or sensible provincial series, why accept the smoothest growth profile for any developing economy in history? It should be emphasised that many problems in the Chinese data are due to foreign observers. The Ministry of Commerce identifies Hong Kong as the source of 60 per cent of incoming foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2011, soaring from an already substantial 35 per cent in 2007. Calling investment from Hong Kong “foreign” strains credulity, especially with so many mainland subsidiaries that are listed in Hong Kong and sending money back to the mainland. Yet it is duly repeated that FDI is rising. Not Rebalancing Yet The flaws in Chinese data have serious consequences. The imbalance between consumption and investment has become a critical force in the world economy, but data issues cloud both the extent and the trend of the relevant data. Using national accounts measurements, consumption’s share of GDP was below 48 per cent in 2010. This is about 15 per centage points below the ideal level and continues a decline that began in 2002. Regarding investment, the Asian financial crisis of 1997-1998 occurred in large part as a result of unproductive outlays. The year before it erupted, Indonesia’s investment share of GDP was below 36 per cent. In 2010, China’s share of investment in GDP approached 49 percent, surpassing consumption and a historically unprecedented level. Some claim that China is already rebalancing. They cite retail sales as growing faster than consumption as measured in national accounts. But retail sales are a poor economic indicator. This figure is incompatible with official GDP, so both cannot simultaneously be accurate. And retail sales have been rising quickly precisely because they include elements that have nothing to do with consumption, such as building materials and government-to-government transactions. Another tactic is to cite estimates that reveal official consumption as too low. Due to inadequate survey methods, however, official figures have underestimated the size of most of the Chinese economy. For the www.geopolitics.in

same reason, official numbers often overestimate annual growth, since the base is larger than acknowledged and some annual gains consist of “discovering” old activity. Isolating parts of the economy is a serious error. That consumption is larger than estimated does not establish its GDP share or growth trend. Restructuring by Default? Data and interpretation errors should not obscure the magnitude of the consumption-investment imbalance. It is true that consumption has been growing steadily. The problem is that investment always grows faster, as it did in 2011, so consumption’s GDP share still falls. Moreover, financing rapid investment requires that consumption be suppressed through lack of competition, low returns on savings, and so on. For true rebalancing, investment growth must decline noticeably, something Beijing has been utterly unwilling to accept. In 2012, it is possible that the central government may be persuaded to stand aside and let investment moderate, for two reasons. First, the explosion in lending triggered in 2009 in response to the global shock restricts both the quantity of stimulus in 2012 and its potential impact. Second, specific sectors reinforce the idea that the government might restrain itself. For instance, real estate receives onefourth of fixed investment. Real estate spending should stabilise, but explosive growth is unlikely. Dampening power consumption growth argues against heavy new spending on plant construction. Railways were to be a source of

extremely high investment, but well-documented problems with rail expansion now make that unlikely. Beijing can still find sectors through which to ensure another 25 per cent rise in investment, but the task will be harder. How determined will the government be? The political transition in 2012 argues for high stimulus. There is a counter argument, though: Overcapacity is daunting. For example, nearly one-third of aluminum capacity could be unused in 2012. Overcapacity in autos may reach a similar level a few years later. Hence, most traditional industries could be harmed more than helped by further investment in 2012. This may finally cause investment to slow such that consumption can catch up. The central government does not need to act; it only needs not to act. Challenges for the US China’s macroeconomic and data issues present varying challenges to the US First, the US should stop relying on numbers that are deemed absurd by the most senior officials of the government producing them. Second, it is possible that Chinese rebalancing may actually begin in 2012 — if more by default than by some dramatic central government programme. The US should therefore: Â Create a project, led by the Department of Commerce, to compile American estimates of important Chinese economic indicators: GDP, unemployment, inflation, investment, consumption, and so on. This project is long overdue. Â During Vice President Xi Jinping’s anticipated February visit and the spring Strategic and Economic Dialogue, encourage the Chinese government not to fight rebalancing. The US Can Help One way the US could facilitate Chinese rebalancing is by its own rebalancingcutting the budget deficit. Short of that, the US can publicly tie progress in Chinese rebalancing to an American commitment to forgo trade sanctions. This would be especially helpful in the politically dangerous year ahead. (Derek Scissors, Ph.D, is Research Fellow in Asia Economic Policy in the Asian Studies Center at The Heritage Foundation)

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GEOPOLITICS

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KIM’S POWER GAMES

problem to the regime. But liquidating him will not be as easy as purging some other high official. He is family, even though he has spoken against the state and the politics of North Korea. On the other hand, while the US, South Korea, Japan and China did not see any unusual development or troop movements in North Korea, after Kim Jong-Il’s death, they had concerns nevertheless. All countries concerned including Russia went into discussions. South Korea and Japan went on some degree of alert but not enough to provoke Pyongyang. Even China took some precaution along its border with North Korea. It is difficult to predict how this development will affect Pakistan’s missile programme. According to available evidence, Pyongyang has completed its missile and missile technology transfers to Pakistan. If anything is left, that will be taken care of later through China. One does not see any disruption

North Korea, world’s leading totalitarian country, has a new but unknown young ruler. It is a matter of worry for global stability, writes BHASKAR ROY

www.geopolitics.in

28-year-old with little experience would lead the country. Kim Jong-un was declared designated successor only in September, 2011. This suggests his two older brothers were considered but not found fit. It will be a great burden for the young Kim. But keen Korea-watchers have seen that a core group protecting Jong-un is being quietly erected. When the young Kim’s exposure started in 2010, three senior figures selected by his father began their rise. The first was Kim JongIl’s sister Kim Kyong-hui, her husband Jang Song Thaek, and a faithful and trusted General, Ri Yong Ho. All three received new titles at the Korean Workers Party (KWP) conference in 2010. Since then, at least one or more of this troika had been seen whenever the father-son Kim duo appeared in public. It is presumed that strong opponents of this succession were either sidelined or purged. The eldest brother, Kim Jongnam, who could have been the natural successor, was never in the race. A frequent traveller outside North Korea, especially to Macau, China and Japan, he told the Japanese newspaper Tokyo Shimbun, that he opposed dynastic transfer of power. He reiterated his position to Tokyo Shimbun after his father’s death and did not even attend the funeral. Kim Jongnam reportedly lives in China under Chinese protection. How the new dispensation deals with Kim Jong-nam is another question. A free man travelling between North Korea, China and Japan, he could ultimately pose a HERMIT PRINCE: The succession of Kim Jong-un was a topic of great speculation after the failing health of his father became public knowledge

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KOREA-DPR.COM

HEN REPORTS of North Korean leader Kim JongIl’s heart attack filtered out of the country in 2008, red flags went up across the world. If Kim Jong-Il died what would happen to North Korea or the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK)? A country armed with nuclear weapons (the extent is not clear yet) with an arsenal of 1,000 missiles (short and medium range), chemical weapons and a standing army of one million highlynationalistic and indoctrinated personnel could not be allowed to implode. The most challenging issue is, and will remain, the nuclear and chemical weapons capacity of this closed totalitarian country. According to Pakistan’s rogue nuclear scientist Dr AQ Khan, he was shown several nuclear warheads when he visited Pyongyang around 2002. But then, Khan’s credibility is highly questionable. Pyongyang conducted its first nuclear test in 2006 and the second in 2009. Therefore, the waves that Dr Khan wanted to make, perhaps, at the instance of Pyongyang under Kim Jong Il, otherwise known as “Dear Leader”, was to keep the international community especially the US, South Korea, Japan and even, perhaps, China, guessing. This is the military power that Kim Jong-un has inherited. When Kim Jong-Il died on December 17, 2011, the news had been kept secret for two days. This was necessitated by the fact that there are power factions and they had to come to a final consensus on how to go forward. The decision, as is seen, was to continue with the Kim dynasty and declare Kim Jong-un the new leader of North Korea. The worry with the countries concerned was how the 27 or

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NORTH KOREA’S FIRST FAMILY KIM II SUNG

DIPLOMACY

1912-1994

KIM JONG IL 1941-2011

KIM JONG NAM

KIM JONG UN

1971Studied in Switzerland and was tipped to become successor till he ruined his prospects by visiting Tokyo Disneyland on a fake Dominican passport in Pakistan-North Korea military relations. In the nuclear weapons area, China is Pakistan’s mainstay. Will North Korea continue with Kim Jong-Il’s strategic policies? The departed leader remains an icon and one cannot see any immediate shift from his policies.

1983-

KIM SUL SONG KIM JONG CHOL 1974-

1981-

Only daughter

Studied in Switzerland and in Worker’s Party Central Committee

He believed in strategic disturbance, even more than his father, the “Great Leader” Kim Il-Sung. He ordered the bombing on Myanmar in 1983, killing 17 visiting senior South Korean leaders. In 1987, he ordered an attack on a South Korean civilian airliner that killed 115. More recently

Studied in Switzerland and the ultimate successor

in 2010, a North Korean torpedo sank a South Korean frigate killing 47 sailors, and also launched a missile attack on a small South Korean island. This act led to a warlike situation, but was somehow doused by the intervention of China and restraint from the USA. One issue, however, is certain. The six-party (China, USA, South Korea, Japan, Russia and North Korea) talks on North Korean nuclear disarmament, which has been stalled for three years, have been put on hold. The new leadership in Pyongyang will have to come to a decision on how to deal with it. The nuclear question Following the Iraq War, based on false information on Iraq’s nuclear, chemical and biological industry projected by the USA, the so-called rogue nations like North Korea and Iran have drawn the lesson that nuclear power is deterrence against US aggression. None of these weapons of mass destruction (WMD) were found in Iraq. Saddam Hussain was true to his word in destroying these capabilities. Iraq stood almost naked when the US attacked. Noth Korea tested its first nuclear device in 2006 and followed it with another one in 2009. It has nuclearcapable missiles such as the Nodong and the Tapaedong. It has created an ambiguity which no one wants to test. After all, it is not only South Korea and Japan, but also the US which has troops in both these countries as well as significant interests. If Pyongyang pulls the nuclear trigger there

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February 2012

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HAIL THE ‘GREAT LEADER’: The late North Korean dictator Kim Jong-il with high ranking officials of his regime

will be Armageddon in North East Asia. But if North Korea implodes, the US troops will try to secure Pyongyang’s WMD assets. This will not be an easy task as intelligence about their location and security is not fully known. The best information on North Korea’s WMD programme is known only to China. But it cannot be said with any confidence that China knows all. The North Koreans are extremely secretive, and in their more recent nuclear and missile developments they have gone alone. It does not appear that Pyongyang’s strategic programmes are going to change for the better anytime soon. The China factor China’s North Korea perspective is very different from what the other stakeholders see. Russia does not encourage a nuclear North Korea, and the biggest security threat to the two small countries, South Korea and Japan, is Pyongyang’s WMD programme which is a continuous threat. For China, North Korea is a highly important strategic card linked to its security and internal politics. It claims that it has no influence over North Korea’s strategic policies. That may not be entirely true. A nuclear North Korea, which is almost wholly dependent on China for food, power (electricity) and access to the outside world, cannot be that independent of China. The earlier North Korean regime was also unpredictable, and there is no eviwww.geopolitics.in

dence yet that the new regime will be anything different. This unpredictability is also a challenge for China. China has endorsed the Kim Jong-un succession, which spells China’s importance to Pyongyang. A nuclear North Korea with protracted talks on its denuclearisation only gives it more time to build its nuclear arsenal. Peace and sta-

THE WORRY IS HOW THE INEXPERIENCEED KIM JONG-UN WILL LEAD THE COUNTRY bility in North East Asia is almost at the mercy of Pyongyang. And China — as its best friend and supporter — also holds a string to the health of the region. Strategically, China cannot allow North Korea to collapse. If that were to happen, Korea unification will be inevitable, with the possibility of US forces on its borders. China certainly calculates the South Korea-US military alliance, and Japan-US military alliance in this context. In such a scenario, China’s influence in North-East Asia and Asia-Pacific region will be severely curtailed.

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The collapse of North Korea, the only Communist regime on China’s border and dependent on China, could have an adverse impact on the Chinese Communist Party, Beijing fears. The Chinese Communist Party is also under stress and is facing challenges from detractors inside. If the Chinese Communist Party collapses, China’s territorial integrity will come under attack. A North Korean collapse may also see millions of starving North Koreans swarming into China. For all these reasons and more, Beijing will prop up North Korea to the last. The Pyongyang-Beijing friendship has for long been described as between “lips and teeth”. But significantly, this phrase is not so much in vogue lately. Why? Is it a message to Pyongyang that beyond a point China cannot support its unacceptable brinkmanship? When China supported North Korea in 2010 despite its military adventure against the South, Chinese strategists queried their own government whether carrying the burden of an errant North Korea was useful for the country any longer because it was supporting a culprit and losing credit with the rest of the world. This is an ongoing debate in China. With the global focus now firm on Asia and the Asia-Pacific region, peace and stability in North-East Asia stands out as an important insurance. That is why the new regime with a callow leader creates tension. Of course, in typical North Korean style, Kim Jong-un is hailed as the “Great Successor”, and will succeed his father’s posts and titles. India has little or no role to play. Diplomatic relations are perfunctory. Yet, the stability of the region has economic and trade implications for India. With India’s growing relations with South Korea, Japan, the USA and China and existing stable and friendly relations with Russia, New Delhi needs to consider a role in the Korean issue and North-East Asia. It is fair and reasonable for India to play a role here. Had India nurtured a strong relationship with Pyongyang in the past and given it financial and food support through bilateral arrangements of economic cooperation, it could have blocked North Korea-Pakistan WMD relations. After all, Pyongyang was not seeking any major political or diplomatic relationship with Pakistan. It was seeking sustenance. (Formerly a senior official with the Cabinet Secretariat, the author is a specialist on foreign affairs) February 2012

GEOPOLITICS

DIPLOMACY

BRACING FOR THE FUTURE: The India-Afghanistan agreement has the potential to provide some direction to the uncertain post-2014 situation in Afghanistan

PIB

LOOKING BEYOND 2014

It will be too much to expect that things would be stable in Afghanistan when the American troops leave the country. Therefore, India has to be pro-active in defending its own security and economic interests in that country, writes GULSHAN SACHDEVA

PART FROM broad discussions on the 2014 drawdown by international forces, developments of the last few months, including the assassination of Ustad Burhanuddin Rabbani in September 2010, speculations on negotiations with the Taliban, ongoing regional anxieties and continuing global economic crisis have pointed towards increasing unpredictability about Afghanistan’s future. Besides, the tensions between the US and Pakistan and instability within Pakistan have further complicated future scenarios for Afghanistan. Of course, at the Bonn and Istanbul conferences, both the international community and the regional players reaffirmed their long-term commitment to the future of Afghanistan, which goes much beyond 2014. The Bonn Conference of December 2011 was attended by 85 countries and 15 international organisations. At the conference, all participants dedicated themselves to “deepening and broadening their historic partnership from Transition to the Transformation www.geopolitics.in

Decade of 2015 to 2024”. The final declaration talked about mutual commitments in the areas of governance, security, the peace process, economic and social development, and regional cooperation. Earlier, in November 2011, at the Istanbul Conference, which was attended by the so-called “Heart of Asia” countries consisting of Afghanistan, China, India, Iran, Pakistan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, UAE and all the Central Asian republics, participants reaffirmed their strong commitment to a “secure, stable and prosperous Afghanistan in a secure and stable region”. Apart from other things, in the context of Afghanistan, the regional countries also agreed to respect for the territorial integrity of states, nonintervention in the internal affairs of other states, dismantling terrorist sanctuaries and safe havens, disrupting all financial and tactical support for terrorism and support for the stability and peace in Afghanistan, as well as respect for Afghanistan’s sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity. On the face of it, these developments looked very promising.

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Moreover, the American officials also talked about working for a New Silk Road Strategy for Afghanistan. Despite all these developments, however, the future of Afghanistan looks more uncertain today than that any time in the last one decade. One important reason for this uncertainty is that almost every one involved in the Afghanistan project believes that by 2014 a significant number of coalition forces would have left the country, even if some American forces continue to stay for longer periods mainly in non-combat missions. In June 2011, President Obama announced that the US policies had already accomplished most major goals and that drawdown of 33,000 US troops would take place by September 2012. Despite doubts about the durability, the transition to Afghan leadership began, as planned, in July 2011, and is continuing. The security responsibility for many provinces and cities has already been handed over to Afghan authorities. Although this transition has already began, it is quite clear to all that due to weak Afghan government and insurgent February 2012

g safe havens in Pakistan, the country will still need direct security assistance even after 2014. As a result, Afghan officials are negotiating “strategic partnerships” with the US and other partners. It is hoped that the US troops that will remain in Afghanistan will come under the auspices of a strategic partnership agreement under negotiation with the US. It is reported that the agreement is likely to be modelled along that of a “Security Agreement” agreed with Iraq in 2008. This agreement, however, may not have an end date for US military involvement in Afghanistan. To reduce uncertainty, Afghanistan withdrawal will also leave significant forces behind. Negotiations for this agreement, which began in February 2011, are still not complete. Some reports indicate that negotiations have bogged down over Afghan insistence on firm deadlines for Afghan institutions to assume control over detention centres and decisions on nighttime raids on insurgents. In the meanwhile, Afghanistan has already signed its first-ever “strategic partnership” with India. The IndiaAfghanistan agreement has the potential to provide at least some direction to the uncertain post-2014 situation in Afghanistan. Apart from increasing capacity-building as well as socio-cultural and educational linkages, the agreement points towards two major things. First, India has agreed to assist in the training, equipping and capacity-building programmes for Afghan national security forces. Secondly, it recognises that regional economic cooperation is vital for longterm economic prosperity of Afghanistan and the region. In addition, the agreement creates bilateral institutional mechanism consisting of annual summit meeting, regular political consultations led by foreign ministries of both countries and establishment of strategic dialogue on national security led by national security advisors of both countries. Overall, post-2014 Afghanistan is going to face two major challenges: security and development. Although there have been some gains in recent months, the security situation in Afghanistan has deteriorated significantly since 2007 and will remain difficult in the foreseeable future. With the drawdown of foreign forces, the situation will become more challenging for the Afghan administration. Although overall number of security-related incidents in the last few months of 2011 declined somewhat, suicide attacks continue to www.geopolitics.in

BRO

DIPLOMACY

GROWING PARTNERSHIP: Border Roads Organisation is involved in crucial infrastructure projects in Afghanistan and India’s involvement will increase after the US withdrawal

pose a serious challenge. Between September and November 2011, there were 36 suicide attacks, of which nine were complex attacks. Recently, the Joint Coordination and Monitoring Board (JCMB), which is responsible for overall strategic coordination between the Afghan government and the international community, has reached an agreement to increase the Afghan National Police Force from 134,000 to 157,000 and the Afghan National Army from 171,000 to 195,000. Although these numbers have already increased significantly, the security forces will need much more mentoring than that provided so far. Owing to higher rates of desertion, many more also need to be trained on regular basis. So far, Americans have provided a major share of resources for training. In fact, about 50 per cent of their committed and disbursed resources for reconstruction and development in Afghanistan have gone only to train security forces. The Europeans have also contributed for police training. Apart from lack of socio-cultural understanding of new Afghan soldiers, the western training has also been very expensive. If India is able to share some of their burden, a significant amount of resources can be freed for other development programmes. This will also provide a major role for India in any future security scenario. Although details are not known at the moment, it is

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likely that a major portion of training agreed in the strategic partnership agreement will be conducted in India itself. In the last ten years, the US has depended heavily on Pakistan to resolve Afghan problems. The apparent deterioration in the US-Pakistan relations, however, may force the US to look for other allies. To reduce its dependence on Pakistan, the US since 2009, has increasingly relied on a series of commercial air and ground routes, called the Northern Distribution Network (NDN). Under this network, non-lethal supplies to coalition troops in Afghanistan are sent through Russia, the Caucasus and Central Asia. The NDN comprises three principal land routes. The first one is from the Georgian Black Sea port of Poti, through Baku, Azerbaijan, across the Caspian Sea and into Central Asia. The second route is from the Latvian port of Riga through Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. The third route originates in Latvia and travels through Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and passes into Afghanistan via Tajikistan. Already close to 75 per cent of ground sustainment cargo is now shipped via the NDN. According to the US Transportation Command, around 40 per cent of all cargo transits the NDN, 31 per cent is shipped by air, and the remaining 29 per cent goes through Pakistan. The dependence on Pakistan was about 90 per cent in 2009. At the moment, the NDN only allows February 2012

g DIPLOMACY

one-way transit of goods to Afghanistan. And that too, it only allows the transit of non-lethal supplies, such as cement, lumber, blast barriers, septic tanks, and matting. As a result, sensitive and high-technology equipment is transported by air. According to a recent report by the US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, it also costs roughly an additional $10,000 per twenty-foot container to ship via the NDN instead of Pakistan. Still, it seems that this option will be increasingly used by the coalition forces in future. Since NDN and the Manas Transit Center in Kyrgyzstan are going to play increasingly important roles in supporting coalition operations, the coming years may see a greater Central Asian role in US stabilisation efforts in Afghanistan. As a result, the US may also try to balance its security and political priorities in the region. With declining western interest, the amount of resources available for development projects in the next decade is likely to be significantly lower than that in the past one decade. Experience suggests that withdrawal of international troops in other parts of the world has reduced civilian aid, with implications for economic growth and fiscal sustainability. Therefore, potential financing gaps in the budget could threaten security and recent progress made on the developmental front. According to the World Bank, actual aid to Afghanistan in 2010-11 was about $16 billion, about the size of the nominal GDP. Any rapid decline in aid will severely affect growth performance and employwww.geopolitics.in

ment scenario in the country. There is an another view, however, that the actual impact of declining aid may be less drastic as most of the international aid in any way was leaving Afghanistan as imports, expatriated profits and salaries. Unlike Iraq, Afghanistan has very limited resources. For long-term sustainability, it ultimately has to play its traditional role of facilitating trade and commerce through its territories. American officials have now repeatedly talked about the New Silk Road Strategy. Since 2005, the idea has been discussed at many academic and policy forums. This strategy is a long-term vision of an international trade, transit and energy network that links Central and South Asian economies through Afghanistan. This was a good blueprint for Afghanistan but unfortunately has been mixed with regional geopolitics and exit strategies from Afghanistan. Still, Afghanistan has no other option but to continuously work for this strategy. On the

KABUL WILL HAVE TO PLAY ITS ROLE OF FACILITATING TRADE AND COMMERCE THROUGH ITS TERRITORIES sidelines of the UN General Assembly, the New Silk Road strategy was unveiled in September last year at New York. This meeting was hosted by Germany and cochaired by US Secretary of State as well as by German and Afghan foreign ministers. The meeting was attended by 27 countries and international organisations, including Indian and Pakistani foreign ministers. However, many analysts have pointed out difficulties in implementing this strategy, particularly in the context of difficult India-Pakistan as well as PakistanAfghanistan relations. But, some positive developments have taken place. In 2010, Afghanistan and Pakistan signed an agreement called Afghanistan-Pakistan Trade and Transit Agreement (APTTA). At the moment, it is a partial agreement designed to exclude India. Under the agreement, Afghan trucks are allowed to carry Afghan transit export cargo to Pakistani ports and also to the Indian border.

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If implemented properly, this has the potential to boost Afghanistan’s development and regional trade. Over time, it may also create insurmountable pressures within Pakistan and Afghanistan to open up trade across the border with India. In September 2011, the Commerce Minister of Pakistan visited India and expressed optimism at the dawn of a new era of trade and investment relations with India as “both countries are now poised to open bank branches, and land routes”. The Indian Commerce Minister Anand Sharma also described his visit as a “defining” moment in bilateral trade relations. The former US ambassador to Afghanistan and Iraq, Zalmay Khalilzad, outlined recently that what happened in 2014 and beyond would depend on the success and failure of the US strategy with regards to eliminating terrorist sanctuaries in the region, catalysing a strategic shift in Pakistan policy from supporting those who are fighting NATO and Afghan forces — the Taliban, the Haqqani network and others — to facilitating a political settlement in Afghanistan, persuading the Afghan government to deal with issues concerning governance and corruption, and perusing a positive outlook for the region based on economic integration and establishment of a New Silk Road. However, whatever the US may do, none of its policies is likely to deliver conclusive results by 2014. One US strategy between now and 2014 is likely to be some kind of reconciliation with the Taliban. The recent reports of Taliban planning to open a political office in Qatar may be a step in that direction. But the trouble with this strategy, as the former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger noted recently, is: “If you negotiate while your forces are withdrawing, you’re not in a great negotiating position.” In these circumstances, India has to be pro-active in defending its own security and economic interests in Afghanistan and the region. In the changed scenario, India can be in a better position to the influence outcome by building on its “strategic partnership” with Afghanistan and developing economic integration strategies with the Central Asian States. (The author teaches at the School of International Studies, JNU and has headed the Asian Development Bank and The Asia Foundation Projects at the Afghanistan Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Kabul)

February 2012

GEOPOLITICS

Right Angle

AGE DOES NOT MATTER

AST YEAR, US President Barak Obama nominated General Martin Dempsey as the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in place of Admiral Michael Glenn Mullen, who retired in September at the age of 65. Many experts considered General Dempsey to be a “surprise choice” as he had not even completed one year of his four-year term as Army Chief that began in April. In fact, Obama picked him as Admiral Mullen’s successor just one month after making him the Army Chief. Besides, he was not the senior-most four-star rank officer in the Unites States when his new job was announced. The 60-year-old military chief has risen very fast in the US military hierarchy. With no particular political lineage or support, he went to Iraq in 2003 as an one-star brigadier general. His task was to stabilise the Iraqi capital region in command of an Army division - historically a task reserved for a two-star Prakash major-general. According to New York Times, “He fashioned a complicated counteroffensive that mixed deadly attacks, political agility, media management and the infusion of cash into ravaged neighbourhoods to suppress the Shiite revolt. And he did it so successfully that Barry R McCaffrey, a retired general, labelled him the best combat-division commander of the past decade”. He was given the second star and third star in quick succession. He got the No 2 job at the US Central Command, responsible for the Iraq and Afghan Wars and keeping an eye on Iran. When the Central Command’s four-star boss, Admiral William J Fallon, retired following a controversy (for his bold comments in a magazine), General Dempsey took over without a formal promotion. For more than a year, he served as acting commander of American forces across the Middle East, before being promoted to Army Chief. Now, imagine if General Dempsey would have achieved the top military position in India had he been an Indian officer. Our system does not necessarily reward excellence or competence. Factors such as bureaucratic hurdles, which, in a way, are further complicated by lack of procedural clarity; excessive importance to age and experience; and the political indecisions play a more decisive role in an officer’s career than his or her competence. If there were any doubts on this score, those have been dispelled the way controversies have abounded the age-issue of the Army Chief, General V K Singh. The General’s case exposes serious systemic flaws. How can there be a system which allows an officer to be promoted up to the rank of Lt. General on the basis of one date of birth, but the next two

www.geopolitics.in

positions (that of Corps Commander and the Chief of Army) are based on another date of birth? How could one have a deal with an officer that he would be promoted provided he agreed to a particular date of birth? And how can any military officer worth his salt accept the “coerced deal” to go up the ladder? How is it that the government listens to the opinion of one particular branch of the Army — Military Secretary’s Office, which has no jurisdiction over the personal records of the officials, a job that legitimately belongs to the Adjutant General (AG), the official record-keeper of the Army? Who has given the power to a serving Chief to determine, not one, but three of his successors? Is it mandatory that the Army Chief must be the senior-most General of the day, his position determined more on the basis of his age than competence? And finally, is the political leadership that is supreme in a democracy not competent enough to take tough, transparNanda ent and timely decisions on military matters? I think that India needs competent generals irrespective of their ages. And when one talks of age, I do not buy the pedestrian but fashionable logic that one should give positions to those who are relatively young on a platter. General Martin Dempsey may have been young, but then the fact also remains that the Unites States recalled General Douglas MacArthur back to active duty three years after he had retired as the Chief of the US Army in 1938. General Peter Jan Schoomaker, who had retired in December 2000, was recalled on a promotion to head the US Army in August 2003. The point to be reiterated is that it is ability, not age, which matters. Unfortunately in India, we have valued other factors more than talent. We are averse to taking risks and tough decisions. Otherwise, our first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru would not have preferred, again on the basis of age, K M Cariappa, to seemingly more competent Lieutenant Generals Nathu Singh Rathore and K S Rajendrasinhji to be the first Indian Army Chief. Of course, there is that factor called credibility and impartiality, which most of our governments have failed to display in matters of supreme national interests. The Republicans have not attributed motives to President Obama’s choice of General Martin Dempsey. It is doubtful that the BJP will have similar faith in Prime Minister Manmohan Singh if he appoints a competent, not necessarily the senior-most, officer as the next Army Chief.

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prakashnanda@newsline.in February 2012

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