HOW TO MEET THE CHINESE CHALLENGE
geopolitics VOL II, ISSUE IV, SEPTEMBER 2011 ` 100
DEFENCE DIPLOMACY SECURITY
NUCLEAR POWER
BULLETIN FACING
URBAN TERROR
ROTARY MUSCLE Helicopters have emerged as versatile combat platform for the Indian Air Force
COVER STORY (P46)
MODERNISING CHOPPERS With a slew of contracts in a range of classes, India is steadily modernising its helicopter fleet to build new capabilities and add to existing ones.
PANORAMA (P10)
PERSPECTIVE (P12)
STEALTH SUPERFIGHTER
FALSE ALARM
The Sukhoi T-50 made a spectacular debut at the Moscow Air Show enthralling spectators with its manoeuvrability and advanced features.
Fukushima may have shaken the world’s faith in it, but statistics reveal that nuclear power is definitely not on its way out.
SPOTLIGHT (P20)
DEF BIZ (P40)
INTERNAL SECURITY (P62)
UNSEEN ENEMY
BULLISH ON INDIA
FEDERAL DILEMMA
The Indian Army needs to take urgent steps to weed out left-wing extremistindoctrinated youth from its recruits and thwart the Naxalites from corroding this hallowed institution from within.
Swedish defence major Saab AB is pitching its range of products for the armed forces and for the paramilitaries involved in the internal security operations.
The Supreme Court’s decision on the Salwa Judum puts the focus back on managing public security within the country’s federal framework.
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September 2011
PIRATES AHOY! (P26)
URBAN MENACE (P58)
BEYOND BILATERALISM (P70)
UNNECESSARY VACILLATION (P77)
With the Horn of Africa under intensive naval surveillance, Somali pirates have increasingly shifted their operations closer to India, targeting merchant ships and driving up insurance costs.
Indian special forces fighting urban terror must be given the wherewithal to eliminate the militants, both in terms of equipment and intelligence.
The Prime Minister’s scheduled visit to Bangladesh is a good opportunity for the two nations to work out their differences and take their relationship to the next level.
India needs to be decisive in its approach as the United Nations progresses slowly and steadily towards concluding the Arms Trade Treaty to regulate global arms trade.
SPECIAL REPORT (P34) CELEBRATING AVIATION We bring you glimpses from the Moscow Air Show, where the Indian presence was strong this year with products from HAL and BrahMos, and the DRDO Kaveri engine being showcased.
DIPLOMACY (74)
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URGENT VIGIL Editor-in-Chief
INDIA NEEDS TO TAKE URGENT STEPS TO
K SRINIVASAN
SHORE UP ITS CLOUT IN THE SOUTH
Editor
GEOPOLITICS
PRAKASH NANDA
ASIAN REGION AS CHINA EXTENDS ITS
Managing Editor
INFLUENCE RIGHT INTO OUR BACKYARD.
TIRTHANKAR GHOSH
Consulting Editor
SAURAV JHA
Assistant Editor
JUSTIN C MURIK
Publishing Director
ROHIT GOEL
Senior Correspondent
ROHIT SRIVASTAVA
Copy Editor
ASHOK KUMAR
Director (Corporate Affairs)
RAJIV SINGH
Conceptualised and designed by Newsline Publications Pvt. Ltd., from D-11 Basement, Nizamuddin (East), New Delhi -110 013, Tel: +91-11-41033381-82 for NEWSEYE MEDIA PVT. LTD. All information in GEOPOLITICS is derived from sources we consider reliable. It is passed on to our readers without any responsibility on our part. Opinions/views expressed by third parties in abstract or in interviews are not necessarily shared by us. Material appearing in the magazine cannot be reproduced in whole or in part(s) without prior permission. The publisher assumes no responsibility for material lost or damaged in transit. The publisher reserves the right to refuse, withdraw or otherwise deal with all advertisements without explanation. All advertisements must comply with the Indian Advertisements Code. The publisher will not be liable for any loss caused by any delay in publication, error or failure of advertisement to appear. Owned and published by K Srinivasan, 4C Pocket-IV, Mayur Vihar, Phase-I, Delhi-91 and printed by him at Nutech Photolithographers, B-240, Okhla Industrial Area, Phase-I, New Delhi-110020. Readers are welcome to send their feedback at geopolitics@newsline.in. www.geopolitics.in
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HOW TO MEET THE CHINESE CHALLENGE
geopolitics VOL II, ISSUE IV, SEPTEMBER 2011 ` 100
DEFENCE DIPLOMACY SECURITY
NUCLEAR POWER
BULLETIN FACING
URBAN TERROR
ROTARY MUSCLE Helicopters have emerged as versatile combat platform for the Indian Air Force
Cover Design: Ruchi Sinha
September 2011
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GEOPOLITICS
LETTERS
LETTERS TO EDITOR
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he cover story on Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) controversy (The CDS Chimera, August issue) was timely, as the media was abuzz on this issue. I am certain a detailed story on the subject must have helped everyone in understanding this complex issue well like it did in my case. The subject is of immense importance and I feel it hasn’t got it due until now. But if you had given the details of the CDS systems of a few major nations, things would have become more informative with perspective. Your effort in this regard is commendable. Keep up the good work. Akash Verma, Delhi
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his is regarding your story on Sikorsky’s X2 technology demonstrator (Dancing in the Air, Panorama section, August issue), which was an informative piece. The X-2, a futuristic rotary aircraft, is definitely going to change the aviation scene, with obvious applications for the military. Such a detailed article on upcoming technology is a rarity in Indian journals and I wish to see more such pieces at regular intervals from you. Your journal is becoming a complete package with tit-bits (Golden Eye), news, and interviews with the captains of the defence industry. The cover story (The CDS Chimera) and the story on joint military exercises (Marching Together) were well written and informative articles.
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hina’s growth as a nation state has changed global dynamics. Two articles back-to-back in the August issue on different aspects of the Dragon’s rise were a good read (The Great Game in Central Asia, A New Challenge from China). One can’t get enough of China even after so much coverage. I wish to congratulate you for your piece on Thailand (People versus Power, August issue). Other media houses should take a cue from your magazine and give sufficient coverage to our extended neighborhood. A detailed analysis of India’s relationship with the extended nighbourhood will be welcomed by one and all. The jungle warfare article gave an insight into training modules of forces. Ishwar Khare, Jaipur
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ours is one of the most complete defence magazines in the country today. The balance of stories from the defence industry, foreign policy, and internal security is commendable. The balance has not been lost in any month. You have not sacrificed the format for any other consideration. The news bouquet of your magazine is excellent and helps in getting the most important news from the defence sector, internal security sphere and diplomacy. Space assets are getting prominence across the world in defence application and India has also started to take it seriously. It will be prudent if you start giving it regular coverage.
Jaideep Kalia, Shimla www.geopolitics.in
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n last few issue of Geopolitics that I have read, I am very impressed with the cover designs of your magazine. They are interesting and impressive. The use of caricatures is a new trend in this kind of magazine. Caricature has not been very successfully done in Indian media. The cover shows good taste of editorial teams. But kindly avoid overdoing it. In your previous issue the article on jungle warfare (Waging the War in the Jungles, August issue), Thailand (People versus Power, August issue) and CDS (The CDS Chimera, August issue) were worth reading. Indian Special Forces are in dire need of specialised vehicle and their demands have repeatedly got lost in the bureaucratic mess. This can have a disastrous result at the most crucial time of war.
Debjyoti Sarkar, Kolkata
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Pritpal Singh, Ambala
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recently came across your magazine at one of the leading defence firms in Delhi. I find it fairly complete. Indian defence industry can’t grow in isolation. It needs strategic vision. Your magazine seems to be the only one provides that but I think the coverage of the Indian defence industry in the magazine should increase. I saw interviews of defence industry leaders in your magazine regularly which is a good thing. Parveen Singh, Mumbai All Correspondence may be addressed to Editor, Geopolitics, D-11 Basement, Nizamuddin (East), New Delhi-13, OR mail to geopolitics@newsline.in. September 2011
{GOLDENEYE}
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Personnel gift!
Good bye and welcome
How does any force pay homage to its ex-chief? Instead of memorabilia or any other gifts or legal privileges, our Central Police Organisations give them the service of their personnel free of cost. All CPOs depute their men to the retired DGs homes as domestic and personal help. The worst part is that more often than not this free-ofcost service is given till they depart for their heavenly abode. The constables deputed to the DGs homes continue to serve on paper in their respective battalions. So much for the gratitude. We are putting together a list of all the constables, subedars and the lance naiks who are serving around the country. Watch this space for an update. The numbers should be enough to create a separate regiment. Does anyone have a good name for this regiment? What do we call it?
Air Chief Marshal PV Naik, the last Chief of Air Staff, was a darling of media for his outspoken nature and news bites. The media’s love for him has now rubbed off with an affection for his successor, the new Chief of Air Staff, NAK Browne. The media was hugely generous in giving coverage to the change of guard in the IAF. Naik’s last press conference as chief got big play and Browne automatically as the next-in-line got great play as well. The change and every press release from IAF on the taking over by the new appointee got significant coverage. No doubt, the public relations department of the IAF is sure to get high marks from the new chief and we hope he will be as forthcoming as his predecessor. Here’s wishing him good luck and a good press. Samajh gaye na!
What’s in an officer? Anyone who has attended air shows will understand how CEOs and owners strut around the perimeter as if they are God’s ultimate gift to mankind. Sipping on champagne and sitting in expansive chalets in their Armani suits and carrying Louis Vuitton bags, some of them, notably the likes of Vijay Mallya are the ultimate sample of The Good Life — if indeed the good life is a Louis Vuitton bag and a glass of champagne from the best that Bordeaux can offer. Naresh Goyal is slightly different, he is earthy, indefatigable and full of beans, plumping hands and moving from point A to point B, as if
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September 2011
{GOLDENEYE}
g Shelved project
A sleepless 11 days RK Singh, the savvy Secretary, Defence Production, who is now in the hot seat in the Home Ministry, must have spent a harrowing 11 days monitoring the bhook hartal by Anna Hazare. As the man who arrested Lal Krishna Advani during the heydays of the rath yatra in 1990, Singh knows a thing or two about dealing with high-profile politicians. But the 90s are light years away from 2011 when it comes to attitude and public tolerance. Also the media is now live 24 hours unlike 1990 when 24 hours news was just about sprouting. So, by the time the Home Minister decided that it would take administrative action to incarcerate Anna Hazare all hell had broken loose and the Home Secretary spent the next 11 days trying to get out of a real sticky situation. This is not to say that RK Singh took the decision to arrest Anna, but somebody did. Who was it? And what will North Block now do to make sure it doesn’t happen again?
the next election was around the corner. That’s why he is one of the best informed men in aviation globally with literally a pulse on every trend. But both of them were not there at the eleventh edition of MAKS 2011 although they are a regular fixture at every Farnborough and Paris Air show. But those who were there were a refreshing contrast to what you get from the mainline commercial aviation stream. There was Ashok Nayak, the affable and easy-going Chairman of Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL), and Dr A Sivathanu Pillai, CEO of BrahMos Aerospace. They hung around their respective stalls in the exhibition area of the air show at the sprawling Zhukovsky air field just outside Moscow. They patiently answered questions, posed for pictures and were a modicum of reasonableness and easy access. This when the business that these two gentlemen will be doing will be several times of what the Goyals and the Mallyas will ever dream of putting together. This will be Nayak’s last air show considering he retires on October 31. But those in the know say that he has gently but firmly pushed that the next incumbent should not be “from the Air Force”, but a dyed in the wool civilian preferable from within or at least someone with an easy understanding of the industry. The reports from within the Ministry of Defence too, are that things are slowly but surely veering around to a civilian in command of HAL. The argument being touted is that if retired Navy officers can do a good job of manning the shipyards why can’t the same yardstick be applied to the HAL? One perspective in the Ministry is that shipyards or aircraft manufacturers like HAL do not necessarily need someone from the armed forces to lead these conglomerates. After all, Pipavav in the private sector is led by a businessman and not by a retired officer. They head operations and that is how it ought to be. While this dramatic transformation may not happen in the next few months, it is inevitable. For the record, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon and other global multinationals are headed by professionals and not retired officials. How do you argue against this considering these institutions have produced the goods time and again? www.geopolitics.in
Regional IGs of the Central Police Organisation, Indo Tibetan Border Police (ITBP), were keen to start their own version of ITBP’s in-house magazine. The idea was to let the forces at the regional level know about all that was happening within the institution. Unfortunately, by the time the idea reached the DG, ITBP, he struck it down and issued a very strong note to the officials asking them to desist from the attempt. The buzz is that the HQ was worried that any news that wasn’t entirely appealing to Home Minister P Chidambaram and their DG might have to face the music at the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA). The in-house editorial panel was miffed that the regional IGs wanted to have a magazine of their own when such an illustrious panel took care of the in-house magazine at the national level! The board’s argument: If the IGs are doing such a good job that deserves publication then the local media must have covered it, so why repeat it? For the time being, the idea has been shelved. So much for the fear of Minister’s wrath. But why is it that the HM produces so much fear amongst his officers. Does it do him any good or any good or, for that matter, to the Ministry? No wonder Team Anna said: ‘Door rakho isse.’ But the problem is that the poor officers can’t do the same; they have no option but to rough it out. Chidambaram ko gussa aata hai, to aag babula hota hai. Bhai temper ko sambhalo !
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September 2011
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GEOPOLITICS
PANORAMA
THE STEALTH DOES
A TRAPEZE The cynosure of all eyes at the Moscow Air Show, T-50, is India’s biggest-ever defence project and its largest defence deal with Russia
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WO T-50 jets appeared in the sky above Zhukovsky Air field, 60 kilometres outside Moscow on the second day of the Moscow Air Show (MAKS2011) at roughly 16:00 hrs heralding the formal unveiling of the much-discussed PAKFA T-50 fifth-generation stealth fighter. The jets performed aerial stunts close to ten minutes before zooming off. On hand was Russian PM Valdimir Putin who had poured millions of roubles into the project. Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) Chairman Ashok Nayak was another onlooker. Russia is developing the T-50 with India, its biggest export market, and has positioned it to compete with the
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established F-22 made by Lockheed Martin and Boeing and Lockheed Martin’s upcoming F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. It signed a JV with HAL earlier this year. The T-50 has been making test flights since January 2010, but it was the fighter’s first appearance at an air show. It resembles Russia’s best-selling Su-30 fighter jet but will have all its weapons hidden inside its body and wings to avoid radar detection and will fly at supersonic cruising speeds. Five stealth aircraft are expected to be tested this year. “Right now the main interest comes from the Russian and Indian Ministries of Defence as the countries hosting the programme,” United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) Presi-
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dent Mikhail Pogosyan told journalists. The Russian Air Force will begin testing the Perspective Frontline Aviation Complex (PAK-FA), as the plane is called in Russia, in 2013 and will start inducting its mass-produced version from 2014. Currently, the only foreign member of the PAK FA programme is India, which is planning to have no less than 250 units of fifth-generation fighter in service for the IAF. The level of licensing control of the Russian side for the future model of the fifth-generation aircraft is unknown. It is India’s biggest-ever defence project and its largest defence deal with Russia. India and Russia are jointly designing two versions of the plane — a September 2011
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SHOW-STOPPER: The T-50 fifth-generation stealth fighter showcasing its manoeuvrability
single-seater for the Russian Air Force and a two-seat version for the IAF. India will contribute about 30 per cent of the
total design in the project, including composite components with the stealth function and some avionics, electronic
Better than the Raptor? z The Indo-Russian fighter is expected to cost just over half of its rival — the US F22 Raptor — less than $100 million apiece.
z T-50 exceeds the F-22 on specifications like maneuverability and the artificial intellect system.
z 85 per cent of T-50’s z It is equipped with avionsurface is covered ics that gives pilots an with nanotechnologiopportunity to concencal materials that trate more on execution decrease its visibility. of combat tasks.
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z T-50 can fire missiles in internal bays at hypersonic speed. F-22 has to decelerate to do this. z Real-time exchange of data with mission control centres and within aviation groups is possible.
z Low radar, optic and infrared signatures through use of composites & engine signature reduction measures.
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warfare systems and cockpit displays. The total cost of the project is estimated at $10 billion. For the time being, there is only one fifth-generation aircraft in the world: the US F-22 Raptor. The tests of the Raptor were launched in 1997. The jet was passed into service in 2005. Meanwhile, the USA continues the development of a new fifth-generation aircraft: F-35. The new plane can be passed into service in the United States in 2016. The real competitor to the PAK FA in the foreseeable future is only the F35 Lightning-2, as a heavy version of the US fifth-generation fighter F-22. Due to excessive price (approximately $250 million per aircraft for export), there is hardly the demand in the world arms market. The T-50 has carried out 16 test flights that are expected to continue for another 15 months. During the years 2011-12 it is planned to complete testing of the new fighter. September 2011
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GEOPOLITICS
PERSPECTIVE
THE LIMITED IMPACT Anti-nuclear groups have trumpeted that the recent accident at Fukushima nuclear plant in Japan will prove to be a death knell for the global nuclear industry. But that is wishful thinking, says RAJARAM PANDA
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HE FUKUSHIMA Daiichi nuclear power plant accident has sparked an unprecedented public debate not only on Japan’s energy policy but also on the future of nuclear energy in the world. To understand this, one needs to keep in perspective the global scenario of nuclear power and whether this is sustainable in the medium and long term. Related to this is the debate on environment protection and climate change, and where the position of nuclear power in today’s world. Will a
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shift towards sustainable sources of energy from renewable sources be a viable option? What are the alternatives vis-à-vis nuclear energy? Can Japan, being a resource-deficient country dependent on overseas energy supplies, afford to abandon nuclear as a source of energy and opt for alternative energy sources? How will the new nuclear debate impact India’s energy policy as nuclear power as a source is chosen as the preferred source to meet some of its energy needs, which are increasing by the day? When energy sources were scarce, it
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was hoped that nuclear power as a source of clean and cheap energy in the 1950 and 1960s could attain greater acceptability. The thought process dramatically changed in the subsequent decades and advocates of nuclear power became increasingly disillusioned when construction and operation of plants mollycoddled earlier by political subsidies and tax exemptions became unsustainable for future new plants. Complicating the nuclear debate was the reactor meltdown in Chernobyl in 1986 and the growing public opposition as a result. Yet, the September 2011
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RETURN ON INVESTMENT: In view of the high economic benefits that nuclear energy brings to the development process of a country, a global phase-out of nuclear energy does not appear to be a possibility
International Energy Agency (IAEA) in a 2004 report predicted that atomic energy with low output of CO2 would assume a new leading role against the background of the discussion over global climate protection. Subsequently, other countries, including Japan, India, Russia and the US, announced their intention to build dozens of new reactors with a view to increasing the share of nuclear energy on their national energy mix. At present, 2630 billion kilowatt hours of electricity are produced by 440 reactors in 29 countries throughout the www.geopolitics.in
world, accounting for 13.8 per cent of global energy production. In addition, a total of 61 new reactors are being built in fourteen countries right now; twenty-six of them in China alone, ten in Russia, five each in South Korea and India, two each in Japan, Canada and Slovakia and one each in Argentina, Brazil, Iran, Finland, France, Pakistan and the US. An additional 154 reactors are on the planning stage worldwide. It would appear that the expansion plans for nuclear energy are massive. The truth is that nuclear energy has played a
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limited role in world energy production to date. According to the IAEA, nuclear power accounted only for six per cent of primary energy production in 2008. Constructing new power plants take a long time, sometimes decades, and thereby causes massive delays in planning and construction. For example, Brazil’s reactor Angra III has been delayed for a long time. Asian countries have been lucky in getting contracts. Yet nuclear energy accounts for a small part of the power supply: 2.2 per cent in India in 2009 and a mere 1.9 per cent in China. Only two September 2011
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A FISSILE QUESTION There is no doubt that there has been a lot of overblown rhetoric all over the world about the so-called “death” of the global nuclear renaissance. Anti-nuclear groups have trumpeted that the crisis at Fukushima in Japan is the silver stake that has finally been driven into the heart of the nuclear monster. However, the reality suggests otherwise. When one talks of energy security in the 21st century, there is no escaping the fact that nuclear reactors are needed to put the world on a path toward lower carbon emissions and to supply more electricity to raise standards of living that improve the human condition. Of course, the anti-nuclear crusaders are jubilant over the recent announcement of German Chancellor Angela Merkel that she was reversing her policy of keeping the nation’s oldest reactors open beyond 2020. A deal put in place by her predecessor had called for the eventual closure of all 17 reactors in the country. But Germany’s decision to accelerate the closure of its nuclear plants will have Russian gas producers laughing all the way to the bank: Germany will need to import more natural gas to offset lost nuclear power capacity and provide base load power to support the country’s growing dependence on renewable energy sources. Germany already imports more than half of its natural gas from Russia. Russia’s aggressive build-out of nuclear plants in recent years is partly motivated by a desire to free up more natural gas for export. Ironically, this means that Russia is building nuclear power plants to support Germany’s efforts to shut down its domestic reactors. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has long been a proponent of nuclear power. Though in the aftermath of the Fukushima disaster, Russia ordered a safety review of its nuclear power plants, the government has unequivocally stated that it will not abandon nuclear power and will continue to build new power plants. Russia also continues to build plants in other nations such as Turkey and Belarus. In fact, the deal with Belarus was inked after the earthquake hit Fukushima. It is in this context that one may recall how, looking at the issue of energy security, and especially the unhappy prospect of being more dependent on Russian natural gas, in September 2009 Angela Merkel bet her election chances on keeping the reactors open. Her conservative coalition won by a slim margin. The German Social Democrats and German Green Party vowed a political comeback and they have started to make their influence felt in regional elections. That explains the German Chancellor’s recent decision on the nuclear front. Even so Merkel’s panicky retreat from her decision to keep the reactors open is tempered by the fact that the closure of the seven oldest units is positioned as a “safety review,” and not a permanent action. Anti-nuclear forces in Germany want all 17 reactors closed immediately and permanently, but business groups that represent the export-driven manufacturing sector of Germany’s economy have called such actions “irresponsible” and a form of “energy suicide”. Merkel may find that keeping the lights and the factory assembly lines humming, a key jobs issue, may be persuasive when the next national election comes around. Be that as it may, the important fact about nuclear power is that its growth story, much like the growth story for oil and natural gas demand, is centred in the emerging markets. At present, 61 reactors
FULL STEAM AHEAD: In spite of the Fukushima disaster, global expansion plans for nuclear energy are massive
countries in Asia — Japan and South Korea — derive about 29 per cent and 35 per cent of their energy requirement from nuclear sources respectively. Against this background, the Fukushima accident has been an additional challenge to the cause of nuclear energy. In any case, the IAEA forecast only suggests a global increase to eight per cent of the primary energy supply by 2035. But all this does not mean that nuclear energy is becoming increasingly irrelevant. There will be some increase of nuclear power for sure, with oil and gas prices becoming more volatile and oil/gas-exporting countries flexing their muscles. The point is that the expansion of atomic energy will always remain an attractive option in reducing dependency on energy imports. The Fukushima experience is not the first wake-up call towards putting safety standards in place. The hazard of nuclear accident has been witnessed before. The meltdown in Chernobyl in 1986 and other smaller accidents over the past few decades demonstrate that technological advancement is no guarantee for nuclear safety. There is no acceptable method of permanent storage for nuclear waste and no country has been able to come up with any viable solution. Finland is the only exception to plan a permanent storage site and the government of the day has not encountered any opposition but the plan is yet to succeed. The IAEA estimates that more than 2.8 million cubic metres of radioactive waste are produced each year in the world. This problem is likely to be exacerbated as many more countries plan to expand their dependency on nuclear energy. The Fukushima experience has alerted the companies profiting from the nuclear business to face the liability insurance that constitutes a part of the contract in installing new reactors now. Thus far, the companies operating nuclear power plants in many countries have paid only a fraction of the damage in case of accidents. The state bears the bulk of the costs, which comes from the taxpayers’ (Continued on page 16)
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September 2011
g PERSPECTIVE Continued from page 14
are under construction around the world, with a total maximum capacity of 65 gigawatts (GW). Furthermore, investing in nuclear power remains a compelling choice for many countries. No wonder, why in addition to the 61 nuclear reactors under construction right now, 150 more are planned to come online over the next 10 years. For instance, India might have ordered a safety review of its nuclear reactors, but Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has emphasised repeatedly that India must make use of nuclear power to meet its growing demand for electricity and emissions targets. Singh has stated that safety standards for new Indian reactors would be world-class and that the country stands by its target of increasing nuclear capacity from about 5,000 megawatts (MW ) today to 20,000 MW by 2020. While the protests over the Jaitapur nuclear site in Maharashtra continues, the government is firm on going ahead with it, though with renewed emphasis on creating an independent oversight body for the project and also strengthening the national nuclear regulatory agency. Besides, the government has decided to increase the compensation already paid to villagers whose land has been acquired for the plant, and step up talks with them to assure them of the safety of the plant. India is developing its own 700 MW indigenous reactor design, which, it expects, will eventually make a major contribution to the nation’s electrical grid. In the meantime, India is relying on Russian and French reactor technology. The Russians have two reactors nearing completion and four more that are underway. As many as 18 Russian 1,000 MW and 1,200 MW VVER reactors may be built over the next 20 years. However, US firms are locked out of India’s nuclear market because of a strict supplier liability law that is based on the historical political legacy of the Bhopal disaster. Strenuous attempts by US diplomats to change the law have not had any success so far, though their labours continue. What is most important is that China is home to almost half of all nuclear power capacity (measured in GW) under construction in the world. If we add in India, Russia and South Korea, the total jumps to well over 80 per cent. The US, France, Canada and other developed markets are building reactors, but these projects account for only a tiny share of the 65 GW of capacity under construction. China will build at least 40 GWe of new reactors by 2020. Of that amount, 4 GWe will be built by Westinghouse, 3 GWe by Areva, and 2 GWe by Russia. The vast bulk of new construction, over 30 GWe, will be a new indigenous design for a 1,000 MW reactor that China may also position for export. It will be based on aggressive technology transfer agreements the country imposed on its vendors. To fuel these reactors, China will have to import 60% of its demand for uranium. Also, the long-term view on energy security has prompted China to begin investing in construction of a $15-billion spent fuel reprocessing plant based on Areva’s technology. Talking of other nations, Turkey has one 4.8 GWe multi-reactor site under construction on its Mediterranean coast, and is negotiating for a vendor for a similar project on the Black Sea, and has even announced plans for a third site near the Bulgarian border. The United Arab Emirates is proceeding with construction of four 1,400 MW reactors supplied by South Korea. Sweden has reversed its prior moratorium on new reactors and will now replace the units supplying 9 GWe of power to the country as needed. Viewed thus, the earthquake-crippled Fukushima Dai-ichi plant may have witnessed the worst accident since the one at Chernobyl, but it has had a surprisingly modest impact on the global nuclear power industry.
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money. This is likely to change in the coming years. The problem relating to nuclear power as an energy source over the long term is the availability of uranium resources. Based on the global resources and projections of future consumptions, the IAEA estimates that the availability of proven uranium resources varies between 200 and barely 20 years. Proven uranium sources are unevenly distributed throughout the world. Australia accounts for 31 per cent of the world’s proven and exploitable uranium resources, followed by Kazakhstan (12 per cent), and Canada and Russia (with 9 per cent each). India and China are relatively endowed, with low reserves of uranium and their future development of nuclear energy will be linked with their need to uranium imports. In view of the importance of uranium in the nuclear energy market in these two countries, there is a high possibility of price escalation in the world uranium market. India’s stance on nuclear non-proliferation is also a constraint. The stance of the Labour government in Australia to reverse the decision of the previous Howard government on uranium sales policy towards India is another vexing issue. The votaries of nuclear power as the preferred source of energy for the future rest their argument on the belief that new uranium resources will be discovered or technologies will be developed. For example, Generation IV reactors are seen as cheaper, safer and easier to secure against proliferation. However, technological deficiencies will render this route unrealisable for quite some time. The expansion of nuclear energy by other countries will be constrained by lack of capital and technical know-how required to build and operate safe and secure reactors. Also, lack of suitable site and trained technicians to guarantee safety are other limiting factors in nuclear power expansion. These limitations, however, have not deterred many of nuclear-energy aspirant countries to put emphasis on the nuclear power development in order to reduce their dependence on energy imports. In view of the high-economic benefits that nuclear energy would bring to the development process of a country, a global phase-out of nuclear energy does not appear to be a possibility. Yet, one must admit that the disaster in Fukushima poses several challenges to the future of nuclear energy. The most important challenge is ensuring further safety of nuclear plants. Nuclear reactors are required to be designed and built to survive substantial earthquake accelerations and to have back-up power systems in place. The nuclear industry as a whole is well aware of the safety provisions. In contrast, security is a different ball game altogether. Intelligent adversaries may plan to sabotage that the main power of cooling and the back-up power both fail. Therefore, global nuclear safety regime needs strengthening and this applies to theft of nuclear material as well as sabotage of facilities. The psychological impacts of the accident in terms of stress, depression, and alcoholism that follow a nuclear accident could be more damaging than the great fear of radiation. There are also new apprehensions over nuclear powers’ role in impacting climate change, though any exact assessment on this score is yet to be made. (The author is Senior Fellow at The Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi) September 2011
gONLOOKER revealed something of his personal style. One US official told a White House press briefing: “What was notable, he did not refer to notes. He had a very clear idea of what he wanted to convey, very strategic in his approach, quite confident in his interaction with his colleagues.’’ Officials said they saw no sense of tentativeness but a very confident, very assured, but also clearly approaching the meeting with the Vice President with a desire to build a stronger personal bond. But is there a problem for the US? “Biden, by going to Beijing before Xi Jinping came to US, looks like a supplicant, something state media is already playing up. Who travels first is significant in Chinese eyes,” said one official! As Xi was busy hosting Biden in Beijing, Li Keqiang made a highprofile visit to Hong Kong. From the beginning, the tone of his visit was as one by a Chinese premier. China’s media highlighted: “Vice Premier Li Keqiang pays an inspection visit to Hong Kong”, which aroused the pro-democratic camp in the city to protest that Li was interfering in the operation of ‘one country two systems’. The climax of Li’s “inspection tour” was his announcement of a series of measures to boost Hong Kong’s economy and integration with the mainland, including speeding up measures to turn Hong Kong into an off-shore centre for the yuan. Besides attending official functions, he visited a poor family and a middle-class family, chatting with the hosts and their children. In a cooking school, a smiling Li tasted milk tea made for him by a student and praised his skill. At the University of Hong Kong Centenary Ceremony, Li delivered half of his speech in quite fluent English, winning applause from the audience. While local commentators debated whether it was “politically correct” for a Chinese leader to speak English in a formal speech, 56year-old Li, who holds a doctorate degree in economics, might simply have wanted to show that the new generation of Chinese leaders is more open-minded and worldly.
THE NEW LEADERS IN A departure from its practice of keeping power succession a tightly-held “state secret”, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) set the stage for Vice President Xi Jinping and Vice Premier Li Keqiang to perform, showing the world that the pair are set to replace President Hu Jintao and Prime Minister Wen Jiabao as the heads of the state and government in late 2012 and early 2013. Xi’s acting as host to Joe Biden during the United States Vice President six-day visit on August 17-22, and a high-profile “inspection” trip to Hong Kong by Li on August 16-18 provided a good opportunity to gain a better understanding of the personalities and thinking of these two future top Chinese leaders. On the surface, all this follows diplomatic protocol as the 58-year-old Xi is Biden’s Chinese counterpart, but in practice it has been carefully choreographed by Chinese leaders. Xi captured the main spotlight, while Hu and Wen, along with National People’s Congress (NPC) chairman Wu Bangguo — his seniors in the party hierarchy — met Biden as a courtesy. In addition to holding formal talks with Biden, Xi spent a lot of time together with the US guest, including at a banquet on August 18 night, co-hosting a roundtable meeting, and travelling to the southwest Chinese province of Sichuan to visit the area struck by an eight magnitude earthquake three years ago. This was something of an unusual arrangement. Since Zhou Enlai in 1960s and 1970s, few Chinese leaders have accompanied visiting foreign counterparts in travels outside Beijing. Such close contact in several days will have enabled Biden to “build a relationship” with Xi. Through the media, the wider public has also got to know something of the personality of a future Chinese leader who has hitherto largely remained low profile. Xi made a favourable impression on his guests, who Li Keqiang
CHINA PERFORMED a record number of satellite launches in 2010, overtaking the United States’ output for the first time in history, according to a report published by aerospace consulting company Futron Corp. Russia remains at the top of the list because of its lead position in the commercial launch market, in which Moscow’s reliable and inexpensive rockets attract an
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unmatched level of business. “Russia was the worldwide leader in launches, and is poised for increased activity,” the report said. “Russia, China and Japan have improved their own space competitiveness by 12 per cent, 27 per cent and 45 per cent, respectively, over their relative starting points from when Futron’s benchmarking process began in 2008.”
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Courtesy: www.calt.com
CHINA OVERTAKES THE US IN SATELLITE LAUNCHES
Xi Jinping
September 2011
O N L O O K E R MERKEL NEVER HOLDING HANDS WITH SARKOZY
Courtesy: sfexaminer.com
Angela Merkel with Nicolas Sarkozy
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MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD WANTS REFORMS WITH EGYPT set to hold parliamentary elections sometime this fall, many are watching the Muslim Brotherhood, which is expected to win the greatest number of seats. The Brotherhood, long suppressed by former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, has formed the Freedom and Justice Party to contest the elections. Brotherhood leader Essam el-Erian spoke on a wide variety of issues with journalists
ciliation, a moderate aspect of religion. On Iran I hope it can be a democracy but it is not our model. The restrictions on running the campaigns and elections are against democratic policies.
Dealings with Israel All Jewish individuals have the right to live among Arab countries. And they lived for decades On Egypt as a religious state? and centuries in safety in our Egypt is a religious population countries. Existence of a state for [and] society. Since ancient Jews is against all rules of times, since the Pharaonic states all over the world. era we are religious. And Any state is a state of during the Christianity all citizens, as Egypt era, and Islamic era, is a state for Musuntil now the Egyplims, Christians tians are religious as and Jewish. individuals and the society tends to religious aspects but it has the [distinctive] flavour of Egyptians. It is a religious country with [a] tolerant attitude, with reconEssam el-Erian
THE ROT IN RUSSIA RUSSIAN INVESTIGATORS have arrested a retired police officer on suspicion of organising the 2006 killing of journalist Anna Politkovskaya, who was gunned down in the elevator of her Moscow apartment building. But this arrest, like the arrest of the suspected triggerman in May, still does not address the issue of who might have ordered the killing of Politkovskaya, a sharp critic of the Kremlin and its chosen strongman in Chechnya. The arrest of retired Lt. Col. Dmitry Pavlyuchenkov has shocked citizens. Pavlyuchenkov was paid “by a person whose identity is still unknown” to organise the killing, investigators said. The retired officer formed a group to carry out the crime and provided the murder weapon. The brutal attack drew worldwide attention to violence against journalists in Russia, rated one of the most dangerous countries in the world for reporters. Suspicions of government involvement in the killing have been widespread. Politkovskaya, who was 48 when she died, won international acclaim for her reports on violence, police oppression and corruption in Chechnya and other parts of the Russian Caucasus gripped by an A memorial for Anna Politkovskaya Islamic insurgency.
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September 2011
Courtesy: biyokulule.com
GERMAN CHANCELLOR Angela Merkel has never held hands as Helmut Kohl and Francois Mitterrand once did at a World War I battlefield. Merkel worries they don’t even talk enough. After no fewer than seven one-on-one meetings the past 18 months — in addition to parleys at summits — the leaders of the biggest European economies have yet to hit on an effective solution to the crisis stalking the euro. Many believe the poor relations between Merkel and Sarkozy are one of the big problems of dealing with the debt crisis because it’s up to European Union leaders to handle this. Their joint statement after a meeting in Paris on August 16 deepened a slide in global stocks as they rejected collective borrowing and emphasised the need for responsible budgeting. The cost of insuring European bank debts rose to a new record and has exceeded the 2009 peak in the wake of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s collapse. Observers believe they were “as far away from reality as they ever have been throughout the year-long European sovereign debt crisis”. The possibility, some economists predict, of a euro breakup — at odds with what Sarkozy on August 16 called his and Merkel’s “absolute determination” to defend the single currency — would undo the inheritance of their groundbreaking predecessors. Merkel, 57, and Sarkozy, 56, are the first leaders of their countries born after World War II, the last of three Franco- German wars between 1870 and 1945. “There’s a real-generational shift with Merkel and Sarkozy and their approach to the EU. They didn’t experience the war.” To establish a functioning relationship, Merkel and Sarkozy had to overcome contrasting personalities, their advisers have said. Their styles were “like fire and water,” according to a US diplomatic memo published by Wikileaks. Merkel, who grew up in Communist East Germany and has degrees in physics and quantum chemistry, emphasises caution and a deliberate approach to problem solving. “I am a person who only draws conclusions after having seen and analysed results,” Merkel told reporters on May 10. “Nothing will change me on this.” In contrast, Sarkozy, a lawyer and one of two Presidents in the past 30 years who didn’t attend France’s elite Ecole Nationale d’Administration — a training ground for government leaders — deploys “hyper-activism on every front”, according to a US cable on him dated December 14, 2007, quoting an unnamed European diplomat. “Just being in a room with Sarkozy is enough to make anyone’s stress levels increase,” it said.
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GEOPOLITICS
SPOTLIGHT
MAOISTS AND THE
INDIAN ARMY
Unless their growing menace is combated forcefully, it will not be long before the Maoists infiltrate the Indian armed forces, warns RSN SINGH
T
HIS AUTHOR recently travelled through the length of the Maoist corridor and interacted with the instruments of governance at all leves — apex, middle and bottom. Officials at all these levels conveyed one single impression: that Maoist terror is expanding and increasing by the day. Despite increasing police personnel and proliferation of various developmental measures, the Maoists are expanding their influence and today there are as many as 231 Maoist-affected districts. Many police officers are of the view that Maoist terror is becoming more vicious. The Maoists have
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no dearth of new recruits, be it by intimidation, indoctrination, or allurement. The increasing focus of the state on development initiatives and revamped security measures is being matched with the concurrent rise in the ideological, financial and military prowess of the Maoists. In fact, such is the level of the Maoists threat that all officials that this author interacted with were not sanguine that the Maoist threat could be overcome even in a tenyear time frame. Why is it so? Primarily because the state has not addressed the problem squarely; and certain segments of the political class, intelligentsia and the organs of the state are complicit. Can the Indian armed forces remain insulated? MAOIST INFILTRATION OF THE ARMY? The infiltration of the Maoists in the police, bureaucracy, judiciary and the media is well established. Police action has failed or been abortive due to presence of moles and informers within the police ranks. Maoists have also infiltrated ‘think-tanks’ and ‘policy-making’ apparatus with the sole purpose of disrupting the evolution of any national consensus and resolve to tackle the Maoist terror. Whenever the proposal to deploy the Army against the Maoists is discussed, these moles of the Maoists inveigle their way and subvert the entire decision-making process. Some of these moles are from September 2011
g SPOTLIGHT the ‘uniform’ background. The deployment of the Army is something that at the present stage of armed revolution, the Maoists dread the most. Very recently, they called for a countrywide bandh as a protest against the presence of Army troops in Dantewada in Chhattisgarh. The Army is carrying out ‘jungle warfare training’ in that area. At present, the entire focus of the overground Maoist machinery is engaged in dissuading the deployment of the Army through its agents in the policy-making apparatus. But at an appropriate time, when they would have gathered sufficient military prowess, the Maoist leadership will not hesitate to test and tease the capability of the Indian Army in combating insurgency right in the heart of India. It will be done in a manner so as to negate the superiority of weapons and firepower of the Indian Army by resorting to guerrilla warfare in a carefully nurtured battlefield within India. These areas today constitute the ‘liberated zones’ of the Maoists. IDEOLOGICAL VULNERABILITY OF THE ARMY Earlier, while candidates were in the process of being considered for the National Defence Academy (NDA) or Indian Military Academy (IMA), the overwhelming focus of intelligence and police verification was to ascertain whether they or their parents had Communist leanings or not. With the Maoist ideology and its innocuous veneer gaining acceptability, the Army is becoming increasingly vulnerable to infiltration by Maoist ideology and cadres, even at the officer rank. Apart from the Maoist bastions such as JNU and Jadavpur University, left-wing extremists (LWE) organisations have infiltrated a number of educational institutions and think-tanks in the rest of the country. Then there are many non-government organisations (NGOs) ostensibly engaged in the health and environment sectors, which are actually front organisations entrusted with the task of enlarging the influence of the Maoists. Many of our educated youth, straight out of college, join the Army. Even if a small percentage of LWE-indoctrinated youth join the Army, they could inflict disproportionate www.geopolitics.in
damage to the cultural and professional ethos of the Indian Army. The propaganda and psychological warfare machinery of the Maoists is getting increasingly sophisticated in the urban areas. They have been able to wean away a large number of youth, especially those coming from affluent and privileged backgrounds. Such youth give the Maoists credibility and a certain degree of insulation from the law. It is this lot who in May 2010, as activists of student wing of the Maoists, the All India Students’ Association (AISA), showed black flags to the Union Home Minister and decried the Indian State for its action against Maoists, Kashmiri separatists, Islamic fundamentalists and north-east insurgents groups. In the rural and tribal areas, where they have a strong presence, the Maoists are allowing only those schools to function, which follow their ideological curriculum. Those schools, which refuse do so, are destroyed. The Maoists have so far destroyed more than 2000 schools. The education system in the ‘Red Corridor’ has been completely subverted by the Maoists. The Maoists are forcing students to be anti-nationals. The anti-national character of the Maoists is evidenced by the Maoists, forbidding people from celebrating Independence Day and Republic Day functions. On the eve of Independence Day in 2010, the Maoists leadership in Gaya, Bihar, had
she gathered enough courage to pull down the black flag and hoist the tricolour. She and her family have since been forced to leave the village due to unremitting threat of the Maoists. The Army draws significant chunk of its recruits from the 231 Maoist-affected districts. There are regiments, which exclusively comprise of tribals. In fact, no other institution employs tribals in such a large number. Even without the Maoists problem, filling the tribal vacancies was difficult because of low education and health base, but things were definitely on the mend before the Maoists made inroads in these areas. With the growth in influence of the Maoists, the pool of educated and motivated tribal youth is shrinking. For the Maoists, the lack of education and awareness amongst tribals is a boon as it makes them conducive to indoctrination. Therefore, today the Indian Army is competing with the Maoists in attracting youth to its fold. Soon the Army may be confronted with the situation, where one family member is a Maoist and the other jawan in the Army. The tribals in the Army belong to the Hindu and Christian communities. The strong and relatively resilient ethos of the Army and tribal affinities subsumed the religious differences. The Maoists are now trying to create faultlines and then exacerbate fissures.
issued a diktat that black flags would be hoisted in all schools instead of the tricolour. In one particular school, the nationalistic sensibility of one girl student revolted and
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September 2011
g SPOTLIGHT Maoists have destroyed the religious harmony in the tribal areas of Central India. The killing of the religious leader Swami Laxmanananda Saraswati in Orissa by the Maoists had religious overtones.
They have registered some level of presence in pockets of eastern coast. Should they begin to control stretches on India’s eastern seaboard, it will add another dimension to the maritime security of the country. For the Maoists it will facilitate arms and logistics supplies from external
Minister of India how his younger brother was kidnapped in Jharkhand in his and his father’s presence. His father and the kidnapped brother had served in the Army as well. Overnight, Gp Capt Prasad had to arrange `10 lakh, which the STRATEGIC VULNERABILITY OF THE Maoists had demanded as the price for ARMY his brother’s release. The Notwithstanding their police expressed its helpdenials, the anti-India lessness and the Governor and pro- China leanings had only sympathies to of the Maoists are offer. Incidentally, Gp Capt beyond doubt. Such Prasad was one of the air denials were eventually force officers responsible exposed in Nepal once for coordinating air effort the Maoists came to during the 26/11 attack in power. The previous Mumbai. This is just one Home Secretary GK Pilstory, but there are many lai had said that he was more stories about armed certain that the Maoists forces, paramilitary and were supplied with Chipolice personnel, both nese arms. Considering serving and retired, and the pan-Indian nature their families being victims of Maoist terrorism of extortion and kidnapthrough the heart of ping by the Maoists in the India, the strategic so-called Red Corridor dimension of the Maoist extending from Tirupati to threat is most perniPashupati. Two decades cious. Apart from conback, the retired Air Force taining strategic minerChief La Fontaine who had als, the Red Corridor opted to settle in a rural dominates the entire area of Andhra Pradesh was LETHAL STRIKE: The Naxals form one of the most serious internal road and rail communi- security challenges faced by the Indian state robbed of his belongings cation link connecting and pistol by the Maoists. the eastern part of India, extending up to sources by sea route. The authorities in Gaya district of Bihar our frontiers with China. The Maoists, The most immediate and pressing conspoke about ex-servicemen imparting with the enormous IED resources have cern, some Army authorities have indicattraining to Maoist cadres purely for moneshown their ability to severely disrupt or ed, is that Maoism is impacting on the tary considerations. There were some even rupture east-west strategic commuinternal fabric of the Army. The Army Army jawans, who complained to this nications. In fact, in many eastern parts of draws substantial manpower from the 231 author that they have to meet the extorIndia night trains have been discontinued. Maoist impacted districts of the country. tion demands of the Maoists for the sake This is the vulnerability, which can cost One senior Army officer, commanding his of protection of the families residing in the dearly in the event of hostilities with China brigade in a Maoist-affected region told villages of Jharkhand. or even Pakistan, as these communicathis author that one fine morning he Some of the Army officers were of the tions not only serve critical logistics links found the police in his camp, to nab firm view that the Army must act against but are also crucial for switching over Maoist cadre, who, as intelligence sources the Maoists before the Maoist ideology forces from one theatre to another as well. revealed, would exchange arms in one of begins to make inroads into the organisaThis vulnerability must be viewed in the the quarters. Sure enough, the Maoist tion and vitiates the internal fabric of the backdrop of the document of the Central cadre did arrive and were nabbed. Army. Committee of the Maoists, which clearly There are a growing number of cases There are overwhelming strategic ramistates that the scenario of India being of jawans coming back late from leave, as fications of the Maoist problem as far as embroiled in war would be most much by two or three months, their alibi the armed forces are concerned. If the favourable to them for facilitating the being that they were abducted by the country and the Indian Army are not careobjective of capturing state power. We Maoists. There is no way such claims can ful, India may well be afflicted by the same therefore have fifth columnists in the form be verified. There are also instances of phenomenon, which has made inroads of Maoists ready to act in concert with jawans while on leave being compelled into the Pakistan Army in the form of China or Pakistan in the event of war. by Maoists to take part in operations or Islamic fundamentalism. In our case, it The Red Corridor not only has internasharing their professional training and would be Maoism. tional boundaries with Bangladesh, expertise. Nepal and Myanmar, it is now creeping An Air Force officer, Group Captain RK (The author is a former military towards the eastern seaboard as well. Prasad, had recently written to the Home intelligence officer) www.geopolitics.in
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September 2011
PERISCOPE
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SOMALI PIRATES NABBED AN IRANIAN ship hijacked by Somali pirates was intercepted by the Indian Navy on August 15 off the Mumbai coast and nine suspected pirates were arrested. Navy personnel seized two AK47 rifles, a 9-mm pistol, 60 rounds of ammunition and some foreign currency. The nine pirates have been interrogated by the sleuths of the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), the antiterrorist squad, and central and state intelligence bureaus. The Iranian cargo vessel, MNV Nafiz, was then brought by the Navy to Porbandar. Preliminary investigation has revealed that the pirates had been drifting at
sea for the last two days because they were unable to find the correct direction. This is the fourth incident in the last few months in which pirates or foreign nationals have landed on the ever-sensitive Saurashtra coast. However, this is the first time investigating agencies have recovered firearms and currency from an intercepted ship’s crew. It may be noted that in two separate incidents this year on June 19, and June 26, 2011, respectively, 38 persons were apprehended by the police off the Gujarat coast. Of these, 32 were people of Somali origin.
PARLIAMENT PANEL FOR MIGS’ PHASE-OUT
THE PARLIAMENTARY Committee on Defence has asked the Defence Ministry that the MiG series of fighter jets be phased “as early as possible”. It also noted that almost half of the originally inducted fleet had been wiped out. The 30-member committee headed by Satpal Maharaj tabled its report in both houses of Parliament on August 3. The committee said as per the information the accident rate in MiG aircraft was rather high. It said more than 476 MIG aircraft — all variants and series included — had so far met with the accidents and the remaining fleet was 470 aircraft — MiG-21, MiG-27 and MiG-29. This does not include naval version — the MiG 29-K. More than 50 per cent of MiG aircraft have already met with accidents so far. The Ministry has acknowledged that a majority of technical defect accidents pertain to old technology. Problems associated with vintage technology, especially aero engine malfunctions in MIG-21 and MIG-27, are more pronounced. The committee saw no reason as to why the IAF was flying these aircraft when they have been phased out of the Russian Air Force also. “We are the only Air Force in the world which is flying this aircraft now”, said the committee. The report wanted that all the initiatives be taken to ensure that planned acquisitions of aircraft were in place within the stipulated timeframe so that the old MiG series of aircraft could be phased out as early as possible.
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IAC LIKELY TO BE WET BY THE YEAR-END INDIA’S FIRST indigenous aircraft carrier (IAC) is reportedly likely to be wet by the end of the year. This will mark the culmination of the first phase of construction of the carrier, being built at the Cochin Shipyard Ltd (CSL) for the Indian Navy. With this, India will also join the elite club of nations capable of designing and building carriers upwards of 40,000 tonnes. The second phase will cover all balance work till the delivery of the ship to the Navy in end-2014. Designed by the Navy’s Design Organisation, the 260-metre-long and 60-metre-wide ship will be able to handle a mix of MiG-29K, Ka31 and indigenous light combat aircraft. It will be propelled by two shafts, each coupled to two LM2500 gas turbines, developing a total power of 80 Mw, sufficient to attain a cruising speed of 28 knots. It has an endurance of around 8,000 nm. It will have two take-off runways and a landing strip with three arrester wires. It can carry 30 aircraft, with adequate hangar capacity. There will be a long-range surface-to-air missile system, with multi-function radars and close-in weapon systems. The ship will be equipped with the most modern C/D band early air warning radar, V/UHF tactical air navigational and direction finding systems.
September 2011
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A MILITARY SCHOOL FOR GIRLS IN A bid to have more women officers in defence forces, the government is set to approve an exclusive Sainik (military) School for girls. Madhya Pradesh may host the educational institution in the Sagar district. However, since the process involves a lot of financial approvals, it may take three to four years before the school starts functioning, according to a senior Defence Ministry official.” First, we will get the land transferred from the state government to the Defence Ministry and then the school infrastructure will be developed,” the official said. Sainik Schools Society,
hitherto an exclusive boys’ educational institutions organisation, was established in 1961 as a joint venture of the central and state governments. Its objective is to bring quality public school education to the common man, besides removing region-
al imbalance in the officers’ cadre of the armed forces. There are 24 such schools in India now. At present, 5,137 women officers in armed forces are short service commission officers — 4,101 are in the Army, 784 in the Air Force
and 252 in the Navy. Besides, there are permanent commissioned officers in the Army’s medical and dental corps and their equivalents in the Navy and Air Force, apart from those in the military nursing services. Women officers in the Indian Army serve in supporting roles such as ordnance, signals, supply and electronic and mechanical engineers corps. In the Indian Air Force, women serve in all streams except as fighter pilots. In the Navy too, they serve in all the streams but can’t be posted on board ships and submarines that go out to sea.
India may train Afghanistan troops
Young Army officers could join IPS
AFGHANISTAN’S AMBASSADOR to the United States Eklil Ahmad Hakimi has not ruled out the possibility of India training Afghanistan’s security forces and national army sometime in the future if the necessity arises. In a recent interaction with reporters, Hakimi, asked if Afghanistan would like India to play a larger role in terms of the strategic situation in this country and train its security forces, since it’s an idea that has been floating around, replied, “Up to now, we have received tremendous support from India on the reconstruction of Afghanistan, mainly concentrated on development projects.” But as far as the training of security forces and the Afghan national army, the envoy said, “The support of NATO and also from the United States up to now …training and equipping them is something that is at a satisfactory level.” Hakimi was profuse in his gratitude for India’s contributions to the reconstruction and rehabilitation efforts.
THE PRIME MINISTER’S Office has opened the doors to allow Captain and Major-rank defence officers to sit for limited departmental examination to join the Indian Police Service to bridge the shortage of IPS officers. Government sources have said that the final recruitment plan cleared by the PMO had permitted Army officers from competing with state and paramilitary officers of the rank of Deputy Superintendent of Police to join the police service. The Union Public Service Commission is expected to hold the limited competitive examination for Assistant Commandant and Deputy Superintendent of Police-rank officers from 2012. The Home Ministry was earlier piqued at demands that Army officers who join the IPS be ranked higher than other inductees from the police. Minister of State in the Home Ministry Jitendra Singh told the Lok Sabha recently that the government had finalised the limited competitive examination as the third mode of recruitment to IPS which included Captain and Major-rank officers of the defence forces.
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September 2011
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SPECIALFEATURE
HAVE INSURANCE,
WILL PIRATE
Piracy, which was once concentrated off the Horn of Africa, is increasingly moving towards India. What is worse, enhanced war risk insurance of merchant ships is confounding the problem, says RANJIT B RAI
T
HE LAST half-a-century witnessed hijacking of airplanes for political ends and minor ransoms. This century is witness to sea-jacking, known as ‘piracy’, which is robbery on the high seas. The United Nations Convention on the Laws of the Seas (UNCLOS 1982) www.geopolitics.in
under Article 102 stipulates that piracy can only be combated by warships. Warships from nineteen nations have been engaged in anti-piracy operations off the Horn of Africa for the last two years. According to the International Maritime Bureau, pirates took a record 1,181 hostages in 2010 and Somali pirates
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seized 49 ships. Indian ships invariably follow the International Recommended Transit Corridor (IRTC) from Aden towards Mumbai, which is patrolled by the Indian Navy and are thus safe, but Indian seafarers on foreign-flagged ships have been held captive in Somali waters and two have even been killed, September 2011
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PIRACY OFF SOMALIA CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO POLITICAL VACUUM, FOREIGN FISHING AND STRIFE
EASTWARDS HO: Pirates are moving towards India and Lakshadweep on account of action by the naval forces present off Somalia
possibly as reprisals for punitive action by the Indian Navy. Defence Minister AK Antony recently admitted that pirates were moving towards India and Lakshadweep on account of action by the naval forces present off Somalia. The Indian Navy has apprehended 129 pirates including www.geopolitics.in
minors and thwarted a dozen attacks. Some pirates have also been killed in three anti-piracy operations by the Indian Navy. In retaliation, Somali pirates have threatened to target Indian sailors in captivity. The Ministry of Defence (MoD) has given the Indian Navy a halfhearted mandate — to disarm pirates, but use kid gloves for hostage rescue. This ‘mid-way measure’ of having to fight with one hand tied behind one’s back can be a nightmare for a Commanding Officer threatened by a Somali pirate pointing a grenade launcher at his ship. It has also emboldened pirates to move towards Indian shores. Shipping is the lifeblood of the global economy and the threat of piracy attacks has begun to attract additional war-risk insurance, which makes cargos shipped through ‘piracy-infected’ areas more expensive. The International Maritime Organisation (IMO), the sole UN authority that frames rules for safety of ships, has extended the war risk limits for insurance purposes from Aden to seventy-five degrees East, just a few hundred miles from Mumbai and all ships transiting this area have to pay an extra premium, as a percentage of the value of the ship and cargo. This adds to inflation on imports and exports, which is transferred to the common man in India. India has objected to the increased area limits by the IMO, without success. RAISON D’ ETRE OF PIRACY Piracy off Somalia can be attributed to the political vacuum created by foreign interference, fishing by foreign companies and strife in Sudan, Eritrea and Ethiopia. This has resulted in lack of governance in Somalia and Puntland. Unemployment is rampant, and even fishermen have lost their means of livelihood. To eke out a living, these desperate
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souls are willing to risk lives at sea, and volunteers are aplenty. The war lords in the region and now religious fanatics employ these capable “sea dogs” on a fixed salary, with the promise of a bonus for a job well done. They invest in boats, skiffs, outboard motors, weapons and gizmos such as GPS navigators and longrange communication sets. The pirates are homed on to targets at sea from ashore. This is possible, as merchantmen above 300 tonnes are obliged to respond and indicate their position via the Automatic Identification System (AIS) and reporters can locate targets, which have low free board and are susceptible to armed attacks, invariably carried out at dusk and dawn. The other side of piracy is its commercialisation. Money is paid by ship owners as ransoms are demanded and negotiated. To its owner a ship is worth a few million dollars, and the ship earns the owner daily revenue in thousands of dollars in charter (rent). The cargo owners have cargo on board, which is invariably worth more than the value of the ship. Every day that the ship is in captivity, the interests of the owner, the charterer and the cargo owner are hurt, the reputation of the shipping line suffers, not to mention the anguish of the crew and their families. Today, some insurance companies offer limited piracy insurance for a premium, but many companies have not been able to deliver the large sums. Whilst a ship is in captivity, the owner, the charterer and the cargo owner, jointly known as ‘cargo interests’, jointly look forward to pay off affordable ransoms through negotiations with the war lords of Somalia, now linked to terror money too. This new brew of “terropiracy” is dangerous, as the Al Shabab group in Somalia is reported to have links with al Qaeda. Article 1 of the Geneva Convention on Belligerents states that countries where militia or volunteer corps constitute a threat, they come under the denomination “army”. So like the al-Qaeda operatives, Somali pirates are by definition enemy combatants waging a war through piracy. No wonder, USA has commenced drone attacks in Somalia, in its war to eliminate the al Qaeda. Once a ransom is agreed, arrangements are made for a money drop to get the ship and crew released. This sharing of the ransom money is akin to ‘General Average’, when all cargo interests and September 2011
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Photo:topnews.in
SPECIALFEATURE
ARMED FOR BATTLE: Piracy is now a business with vested interests that won’t die out until Somalia enforces law and order
insurance bear the cost of the ransom like, in a Force Majeure. The ransom money is transported in cash by helicopters or air carriers or secretly facilitated through venues like Kenya, Dubai and Djoubiti. The ransom is shared between the war lords and the ransom facilitators. The successful pirates get a bonus, the same system that is followed in investment banking. OP UMEED-e-NUH AND THE MV SUEZ RESCUE The Indian Navy acted with daring in three cases to deter, capture and kill pirates in action, but has since been advised to be cautious as such an action leads to reprisals on Indian seamen in captivity. Currently around 49 Indians are in captivity. Ten months ago, the Egyptian merchant ship MV Suez, registered in Panama, was seized by Somali pirates and among the 22-man crew, under Capt Wasi were Egyptians, Pakistanis and six Indians, including Ravinder Gulia, Satnam Singh, Prashant Chauhan and Sampa, among others. A ransom of $2.1 million was arranged for the release in June. The Egyptian ship owner contributed $1 million and the www.geopolitics.in
WARLORDS AND RELIGIOUS FANATICS EMPLOY PIRATES ON A FIXED SALARY WITH A BONUS remaining $1.1 million was raised by Ansar Burney of Pakistan, as an act of charity. The MV Suez was released in early June and sailed to freedom in a poor condition. As the ship and crew sailed out after ten months of neglect, it came under attack once again. The Pakistan Navy’s PNS Babur then warded off the pirates and provided the crew with food and medicines. Pakistan Navy Chief Admiral Noman Bashir took over the rescue, code named Operation Umeed-eNuh. There was a hue and cry in India, questioning why the six Indians were taken to Pakistan. It was reported INS
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Godavari arrived on the scene and might have made efforts to take over the Indian seamen, which PNS Babur resisted. An unnecessary collision between PNS Babur and INS Godavari, as reported in the media, took place, and finally due to heavy seas the MV Suez sank 75 miles off Salahah in Oman. PNS Babur rescued the crew on June 18 and transferred them to PNS Zulfiqar, which arrived to take the crew to Karachi. In mid-July the Indian seamen were repatriated to India and reunited with their families. The incident could have been avoided if the Indian and Pakistan navies had adhered to the confidence-building measure (CBM) not to approach each other within three miles. The incident also highlights the need to ensure better coordination in anti-piracy operations between the two navies. Recently, one ransom payment went awry. News agency AFP reported that three Britons, Matthew Brown, Andrew Oaks and Alex James from the Nairobibased security firm Salama Fikira were jailed after flying to Somalia with £2million as ransom for the release of two hijacked ships. They were sentenced to 15 years imprisonment for landing in two unmarked planes at Mogadishu in June. Both ships have since been freed, indicating the connivance of the authorities. A Somali official said the planes they used, were frequently employed to deliver ransoms. This is the first time that arrests have been made for involvement in ransom payments. Others, including the French, have used helicopters to deliver ransom in cash directly on to the hijacked vessel. Asked about possible pardons or parole, a spokesman for the Somali information ministry, Abdifitah Abdinur, said: “Everything is possible and I can’t comment on the future.” A spokesman for Salama Fikira, which is run by former British special forces officers, declined to comment. Piracy is now a business with vested interests that won’t die out until Somalia enforces law and order. The good news for the Indian Navy is that the Centre is planning to introduce a bill in Parliament that will give more powers to the Navy and Coast Guard to combat piracy anywhere in the world. (Cmde [Retd] Ranjit B Rai is Vice President, Indian Maritime Foundation, New Delhi) September 2011
geopolitics
DEF BIZ
STEALTH SUPERFIGHTER With the T-50, Russian industry has announced its emphatic resurgence in global aviation
DEF BIZ
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CHINA, UKRAINE DEVELOP HEAVY-LIFT CARRIER
CHINA HAS developed a heavy lift aircraft with Ukraine to fill a gap in its military airlift capability. The aircraft named the Y 20 is expected to carry less than 77 tonnes. China, like India, also depends on the Russian Ilyushin family of aircraft for medium or tactical lift. The Y20 aircraft is expected to be ready for flight trials by next year. The development of the aircraft is almost complete. This aircraft will be very effective in transportation of large military columns and heavy equipments such as tanks, armoured vehicle etc. Ukraine has significant expertise in aircraft manufacturing as the country inherited numerous aeronautical firms after the breakup of the Soviet Union.
JOINT-VENTURE WARSHIP
THE UK Ministry of Defence has proposed joint development of the next generation of frigates with India and other countries. The move is being seen in the background of the fiscal constraints that have currently led to major cuts in allocations for the British armed forces. The frigates are called the Global Combat Ships (GCS) and will be ‘flexi-role’ ship, designed to be customised for a number of different roles. Frigates are generally employed for anti-submarine warfare, air defence or general-purposes. The major part of the GCS will be common for all the three versions only the role specific components and designs will be different between the frigates. If approved, the collaboration can prove to be fillip to private Indian defence shipyards in a big way as the shipyards of the Ministry of Defence are already over burdened and unable to keep up with the deadlines. The GCS project could bring next-generation warship building technology to India, which could help in making India independent in this field. Currently India is still a net importer of cuttingedge warships.
UPDATED CASSPIR LAUNCHED NAVY ORDERS CHAFF BAE SYSTEMS has launched a new version of its successful Casspir Mine Protected Vehicle (MPV ). The new variant, Casspir Mk 6, can carry 16 people. Johan Steyn, Managing Director, Land Systems South Africa said, “This new version integrates decades of experience saving lives, offering a solution with a worldclass track record. With proven mobility, crew and ballistic protection, getting the soldiers safely around any environment was top-of-mind during the development of this vehicle.” This latest version incorporates features based on the experiences of the RG31 MPV. There are around 2400 RG31s in operation across the world including in Afghanistan and Iraq. The Casspir MK 6 is an open-architecture-based vehicle with a length of 7.59 metres, a width of 2.67 metres width, and a ground clearance of 38 cm. It is available in many variants including 4x4, 6x6, utility and command. BAE is going to export this vehicle from South Africa. www.geopolitics.in
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BRITAIN’S WALLOP Defense Systems reports it has won a major Indian contract for chaff payloads, a deal that marks its biggest single order for the product. The initial contract, signed for an undisclosed sum, represents the first part of a programme to supply chaff payloads to the Indian Navy. The specially designed and manufactured chaff payloads will be integrated into short, medium and long-range chaff rockets and deployed via the Indian navy’s Kavach rocket-launching system. “We are delighted that the solution we put to the Indian Navy provided the improved performance sought by their procurement department and we look forward to delivering the full value of the programme over the coming years,” according to Dave Connors, business development director of Wallop Defense Systems. However, details on the number of units and delivery schedules have not been disclosed. Wallop Defense Systems is a division of the Esterline Defense Technologies group. September 2011
g DLSI DELIVERS MPV
TO JHARKHAND POLICE
DEFENCE LAND Systems India (DLSI), a joint venture between Mahindra & Mahindra and global defence manufacturer BAE Systems, delivered India’s first privately-manufactured Mine Protected Vehicle (MPV) to the Jharkhand Police recently. Built on Ural Chassis, the MPV incorporates a ‘V’ shaped mono hull chassis, which directs the force of the blast away from the occupants. The Jharkhand Police have bought more than hundred armoured vehicles from Mahindra in the last six years. The series production of the MPV will start soon and DLSI aims to manufacture 100 vehicles a year. The 6x6 vehicle has a powerful engine that provides rugged mobility to its passengers making it ideally suited for anti-terrorist and anti-Naxal operations.
MORE INTERCEPTORS FOR INDIA
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SNECMA FOR KAVERI?
WILL SOUTH KOREA GO FOR T-50?
THE DEFENCE Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) is negotiating for the co-development and co-production of the Kaveri-aero engine with French engine-maker Snecma, to be used on the Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Tejas MK-II. Media reports had initially confirmed that an agreement had been signed, but Defence Minister AK Antony in his written reply had quashed the rumours saying that no such agreement had been made. The proposal is undergoing price negotiation and after which it will put to the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) for approval. The Indian Air Force (IAF) is keenly monitoring the negotiations, and has already cleared engine technical specifications and the co-development proposal with Snecma. It has suggested that engine design should require minimum airframe changes when the Kaveri is retrofitted in the LCA.
In addition to 15 Fast Interceptor Craft (FICs) for the Sagar Prahari Bal, which were contracted in March, 2010, the Ministry of Defence is planning to procure 80 more FICs. The delivery of the FICs contracted in the previous tender is
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T-50, the Indo-Russian fifth-generation fighter aircraft which is underdevelopment will participate in a South Korean tender for 60 fighter aircraft. The deal, code named FX-III, is worth $7.86 billion and will be the biggest arms-procurement deal for Seoul. The tender calls for advanced fifth-generation stealth fighter from a foreign vendor. The Sukhoi-HAL T50 is expected to compete with the Lockheed Martin F-35, EADS’s Typhoon and Boeing’s F-15 Eagle. The tender is expected to be finalised in 2012 and the delivery is scheduled for 2016. The T-50 is expected to be inducted into active service by 2017. With a total of three prototypes, the T -50 is undergoing a series of extensive tests. Both India and Russia are expected to induct T-50 fighters in large number from 2016 onwards.
continuing on expected lines. Coming September will see the delivery of three more FICs. By 2012 the contract will be completed with delivery of the remaining nine boats. India received its first batch of three FICs last March.
September 2011
DEF BIZ
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HAL DELIVERS MORE HAWKS
UNMANNED CHETAK ON THE ANVIL
HINDUSTAN A E RO N AU T I C S Limited (HAL) has delivered 24 of 42 Advanced Jet Trainers (AJTs) to the Indian Air Force by July 31. The contract is part of the deal for 66 trainers signed by India with BAE Systems and Rolls-Royce Turbomeca in March 2004. The first 24 were to be directly supplied by BAE with the rest of the 42 AJTs to be licence manufactured under Transfer of Technology by HAL. Twenty-eight out of 42 aircraft contracted with HAL had been delivered till July, 2011. Last July India signed a contract with HAL for additional 57 Hawk AJTs. These aircrafts will be divided between IAF and Navy, where Navy will get 17. Second contract scheduled to be delivered between 2013 and 2016.
ISRAEL AEROSPACE Industries (IAI) and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) are working towards remodeling Chetak helicopter into an unmanned aerial vehicle. The preliminary work is on a prototype of this version for Indian Navy has begun. Malat unmanned air systems division of IAI is working with HAL on this prototype. This is part of wider cooperation agreement between HAL and IAI. The flight control has been developed by IAI using a similar light helicopter Bell 206. Israel is looking forward to develop an unmanned helicopter for its missile boats. The Israeli Navy is also interested in an unmanned helicopter for its missile boats as manned helicopter operations are complicated in rough seas.
US-INDIA DEF BIZ AT ALL-TIME HIGH BDL’S NEW PLANT The value of military contracts between India and the US signed between 2004 and 2011 totaled `37,181 crore. During this period India has signed contracts for C130J Transport aircraft, M777 howitzers, VVIP aircraft, harpoon missiles, sensor-fused weapons, C-17 Globemaster III and P8I maritime reconnaissance aircraft amongst others. INS Jalashwa is already in service with Indian Navy. The business between India and the US could rise even more if the American companies walk away with the contracts for helicopters where they are pitted against the Russians for heavy-lift and attack helicopters.
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BHARAT DYNAMICS Limited (BDL) is setting up an additional manufacturing plant at Ibrahimpatnam in Rangareddy district of Andhra Pradesh. BDL has acquired 438 acres of land for the project. This venture will cost `26.73 crore and will be dedicated to the manufacture of Very Short Range Air Defence Systems (VSHORAD). The proposed unit is expected to be functional by 2015. At present the BDL operates through its plants in Kanchanbagh, Bhanur and Vishakapatnam.
May 2011 2010 September
TECH SCAN
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SOLAR-POWERED UAVS
KAVERI TO POWER DRONES
INDIA IS planning to develop solar-powered unmanned flying machines with the capability of remaining airborne for at least a month in all-weather conditions. Speaking to the media Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) spokesperson Ravi Gupta said: “We are looking forward to develop solar-powered unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV ) with a long range and endurance capability as we plan to diversify our expertise in UAV technology,” The one-of-itskind UAV will be designed and developed to endure long-range sorties ranging up to a month in all weather conditions. The flying machine will have specially-designed solar panels to keep it airborne even in nights and cloudy weather conditions with the help of power generated and saved during the day. Keeping in mind the payload that would be fitted on these UAVs and the nature of missions, special attention would be paid to keep their frame light but strong enough to endure different weather conditions. The UAV would be capable of providing real-time information and data of the area through a secure data link.
NEW BRAHMOS TESTFIRED THE USER trial of BrahMos Block-III missile jointly developed by India and Russia has been successfully conducted by the Indian Army in Pokhran, Rajasthan. BrahMos Block III missile has the ability to engage targets in inaccessible mountainous terrains. The BrahMos Block III missile test, carried entirely by the Army, met all the mission parameters and the Indian Army will induct the highly-mobile, all-weather precisionstrike weapon for mountain warfare. According to Indian Army officials, the BrahMos missile was fired at a supersonic speed in a steep-dive mode from Chandan area of Pokhran field firing range and the target was put up at Ajasar, located 28 kilometres away. The missile hit the target successfully and the high success rate of the missile with its impeccable performance has lent an air of unique credibility to the BrahMos missile. The BrahMos missile and the ‘Prahaar’ missiles, enable accurate and concentrated fire assaults at enemy targets. www.geopolitics.in
DRDO OFFICIALS say the Kaveri aero-engine, which incidentally is over 22 years in the making by now with a sanctioned cost of `2,893 crore, can power unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs) because they “do not require the kind of higher thrust” needed for the indigenous Tejas LCA (light combat aircraft). DRDO has also come up with a modified Kaveri version, by “designing a freepower turbine to generate shaft power”, for propulsion of warships. The Navy, as per DRDO, has shown “a lot of interest” in the engine which has a 12 MW power output. DRDO is now also trying to tie up with French company Snecma to jointly develop the “90kN thrust class of upgraded Kaveri engines” for the future requirements of IAF. The Indian Railways has shown keen interest in the Kaveri engine to power its trains, the DRDO has even told a Parliamentary Committee. In its report tabled in Parliament, the Standing Committee on Defence said the DRDO had plans of producing Kaveri engines in large numbers in collaboration with Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL).
INDIAN STEALTH FIGHTER EVEN AS the Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) takes to the skies, India has another indigenous fighter on the drawing board with the DRDO working on an Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft. The Indian Air Force will be in need of replacements for MiG-29, Mirage and Jaguar fighters, as they near the end of their operational life in a little over a decade from now. The Bengaluru based Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA), which is part of the DRDO, will be showcasing its design to the top brass of the Air Force next year. It is said that indigenous design will be for a stealth aircraft. According to DRDO Director General VK Saraswat: “Our requirement is to look for a fighter aircraft which will be required after 2025 and that aircraft should have all capabilities in terms of agility, manoeuvrability, load carrying capacity, low radar cross-section, super cruise.” Composite materials will comprise much of the structure of the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft and it will be in the 20-tonne range. It will be powered by two Kaveri engines and ordnance will be carried in internal concealed bays. According to Saraswat the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft will be powered by modified ‘Kaveri’ engine.
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GEOPOLITICS
SPECIALREPORT
HOW GOOD WAS MAKS 2011? With the contracts exceeding $10 billion, the high-profile and the high expectations of this year’s MAKS 2011 seem fully justified. The annual seven-day event usually attracts far fewer international visitors than the Paris Air Show or the Farnborough event, but this year’s showcase at Zhukovsky, just outside Moscow, hosted some 800 participants from 42 countries (Last year 735 companies from 34 countries brought their products to Zhukovsky). The fact is, most of the deals concluded during the first three business days of the event had been planned long in advance and were actually works in progress that were coming to fruition. But what took everyone by surprise was the the relatively high number of firm contracts. By the time the final cold print is counted the deals may total over $16 billion. Defence, however, usually a major element of the MAKS show, had a low profile this year — even though equipment ranging from radar and guidance systems to
$ 10 BN AND
STILL COUNTING www.geopolitics.in
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September 2011
g SPECIALREPORT surface-to-air missiles and predator drones were on display. In fact, Rosoboronexport that had one of the biggest presence at the show has lost as much as $4 billion in interrupted and lost contracts as a result of the arms embargo against Libya earlier this year and the Jasmine revolution in the Middle East. Surprisingly, the two top-sellers this year were civil aircraft: literally the champions of MAKS-2011. The event’s top seller was the new MS-21 civil plane, made by Irkut, an arm of United Aircraft Corp (UAC). The firm sold 128 models of the aircraft, with Russian firms Rostechnologii and Ilyushin Finance the main contractors. It’s the best piece of news as far as the Russian aviation industry is concerned. The routine and regular stories of crashing Soviet-era planes in recent months were a huge psychological dent and most certainly queered their sales pitch when they went out to flog their commercial offerings. The MS-21 (where 21 stands for the 21st century) is set to become Russia’s
main national passenger carrier, replacing the outdated Tu-154. UAC forecasts that the plane will make up at least 10 per cent of the Russian aviation market.Sukhoi’s Superjet medium-range civil aircraft tailed the MS-21 in terms of number of deals, signing some 50 firm supply contracts. Airlines Gazpromavia and UTair were among the contractors of the aircraft, which is to substitute the Tu134.There is no question that Russian aircraft builders have succeeded in reviving the moribund and dormant aviation industry in the country. PUTIN’S ASSERTION That Russia had completely moved away from the oil and natural gas conundrum to focus on other sectors was categorically spelt out by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. He said the country had completed the consolidation of its aviation and space industry and considered it to be the absolute strategic priority of the country’s development. Putin pointed out that developing the
aviation industry not only improved the image of the country but also added to its defence potential and technological growth. “These are contemporary Russia’s achievements and the result of the work of our experts who revive and develop the best traditions of Russian aircraft construction and space technology. In spite of difficulties in the Russian and world economy during the crisis we did not cut down a single air or space programme. Financing was carried out regularly and in full scale. Russia is reviving the research of the Solar system and increasing the number of orbital facilities, including GLONASS.” RUSSIAN HELICOPTERS ON A ROLL Russian Helicopters used the MAKS to tell the world they are back in business. Investor and industry confidence had been dented when they called off their public issue in May. If that had gone forward, it would have
STELLAR SHOWCASE: MAKS2011 International Air Show held at Ramenskoye Airfield in Zhukovsky outside Moscow brought together some of the biggest names in aviation
MAKS is growing by leaps and bounds. The 2011 edition saw record business and a huge participation. A special report
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g SPECIALREPORT made them the first government-controlled Russian defence company to go public. But with the number of offerings they had at the show it is evident that it is a conglomerate under transformation, buoyant and with a huge number of projects on hand. Many projects that were long viewed as shelved suddenly seemed to have gained traction. Among the new aircraft displayed were the light Mi-34C1, a Ka-226T with a medical module, the Mi-38 transport helicopter and the new heavy Mi-26T2. Considering that the amalgamation of all helicopter units under one umbrella is a recent event, not much was anticipated in the chopper segment of the show. If the display was a huge surprise, the energy and confidence of the Russian Helicopter industry had to be seen to be believed. Russian Helicopter has signed several long-term contracts with the country’s defence ministry for more than 450 helicopters as part of a $29-billion effort to upgrade the military’s helicopter fleet by 2020. Gazprom Avia signed for 39 Mi-8AMT helicopters to service its gas pipeline network. The aircraft will be delivered between 2012 and 2016. On the export front the primary focus was on fellow BRIC members Brazil, India and China. While, the Mi-26T2 is aimed at an Indian tender for 15 heavy transport helicopters, there were options being discussed for a JV with China for production of an Mi26 offshoot. One of the key areas that the company is working on is timely delivery, particularly the Mil and Kamov helicopter families. As a first step, Russian Helicopter has signed an agreement with United Engine Corporation (UEC) for engine deliveries through to 2020.The agreement focuses on the deliveries of the Klimov-produced TV3-117 and VK2500 engines. Interestingly, Russian Helicopter has collaborated with AgustaWestland for an assembly line in Russia of the AW139. The assembly line on a 40,000 sq m site in Tomilino near Moscow is currently being built and is expected to produce some 15 aircraft per year for the Russian and CIS markets. The stalled Mi-38 programme, which has been in development since the 1980s, appears to be gaining momentum. The two Mi-38 flying prototypes were on display at the show — one powered by Pratt and Whitney PW1267/5 engines and the other with FESTIVAL OF FLIGHT: (From top) CEO A Sivathanu Pillai at the BrahMos stall, the HAL stall with model of the LCH, the Russian A-50 AWACS, an Mi-26 at the Air Show
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recently installed TV7-117 powerplants. The aircraft is aimed at the niche between the Mi-8/17 medium helicopter and Mi-26 heavy lifter. The Mi-38 will have a MTOW of 15,600 kg and will be able to transport 7 tonnes of external loads. The third flying prototype is expected to be ready by the end of the year while a fourth will follow in 2012 or 2013 as a near-production-standard aircraft. At its exhibition space Russian Helicopter displayed a representative interior of an Mi-38 in VIP configuration. ROSOBORONEXPORT IN A NEW AVATAAR Rosoboronexport was in top form during the show. A huge interactive exhibition system gave visitors an opportunity to view on a wide panoramic screen examples of employing Russian fixed- and rotary-wing aircraft, including Su-35 and MiG-29M fighters, the Yak-130 combat trainer, Ka-52A and Mi-28NE combat helicopters, the Mi-171Sh military transport and the Mi-26T transport helicopter. A total of 15 aircraft were showcased. The system provided simulation of various exigencies including combat possibilities. At the present time aircraft and air defence systems account for over half of all export deliveries of Rosoboronexport. “This year we have successfully cooperated with our traditional partners — India and China,” Alexander Mikheev, Rosoboronexport Deputy Director General, told journalists. Increasingly, Rosoboronexport from its traditional role of hardware sales, licence transfers, spare parts etc., to focus areas like JVs. The fifthgeneration collaboration with India is being driven by Rosoboronexport as is the Medium Transport Aircraft (MTA) programme and the Su-30MKI (Super 30) deep modernisation programme. HAL AT THE SHOW The Irkut company, producing the Su30MKI fighters for India’s Air Force, said the aircraft were soon to be upgraded to fifthgeneration Super Sukhoi fighters. Irkut chief Alexei Fyodorov said at the show that the upgraded fighters would have a new cockpit, an improved radar and stealth technology. Currently, India’s Air Force has about 100 such fighters, arranged in five squadrons. Eventually, India will have over 230 aircraft of this type (13 squadrons). “Not only will the fighters currently deployed by India’s Air Force be modernised but also those to be produced under licence or directly supplied from Russia”, Fyodorov added. Most important, the plane will become a platform for deployment of heavy weapons, including BrahMos supersonic September 2011
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cruise missiles”, he stressed. Fyodorov also said that the Su-30MKI was to become a powerful aircraft with functions similar to those of fifth-generation fighters. Even so, he refused to elaborate on the programme, saying that these issues would be resolved during Russian-Indian negotiations. “Currently, we are discussing the possibility of upgrading separate types of aircraft”, he said. The cost of the modernisation remains uncertain but, judging from the overall tendency for such modernisations, the price tag could be around $ 1 billion. HAL chairman Ashok Nayak, who was at the show confirmed to journalists that his company’s participation in the design of the FGFA was “the right thing to do”. In December 2010, Russia and India signed an agreement on preliminary designing of the aircraft, putting the project’s value at $ 295 million. The initial design will take approximately 18 months. The Indian model’s main difference will be a 2-man crew. “HAL hopes to complete the initial design and move further,” Nayak said, adding that the specific use of Indian components in the FGFA would be determined at the full-scale design stage. HAL is working on the aircraft together with Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation. India’s Air Force will be the first foreign customers to buy the new aircraft. (For a detailed report on the FGFA, see page 10) BRAHMOS KI JAI The BrahMos project can be seen as the ‘gold standard’ for joint military manufacturing programmes, effectively combining such factors as commercial profit for Russian and Indian partners, a tangible improvement in the combat ability of the Indian Army, Navy and Air Force, and development of new technologies, which is www.geopolitics.in
RUSSIAN HELICOPTERS USED MAKS 2011 TO TELL THE WORLD THAT THEY ARE BACK IN BUSINESS particularly important for India. Perhaps the project’s most valuable result is the accumulated experience of resolving difficult legislative, organisational and financial problems. In the future, this experience will be used for new joint programmes, including for the Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA), project. At the air show, BrahMos Aerospace signed an MoU with Russian aviation institutions to establish a centre of excellence for developing technology for high- speed aircraft and missiles. The MoU was inked with the Moscow Aviation Institute (MAI) and NPO Mashinostroyeniya (NPOM) Corporation on the first day of the MAKS, 2011 (Moscow air show), BrahMos officials said. The MoU was signed by BrahMos CEO A Sivathanu Pillai, AN Geraschenko, Rector of MAI and Chief of NPOM Corporation Alexander Leonov. “It will bring together best scientific minds to study the hypersonic technology which will eventually pave way for the advanced BrahMos-II missile system,” they said. Speaking on the occasion, Pillai said, “It is a remarkable step for BrahMos, NPOM and MAI to come together and work in this field.” BrahMos had earlier signed a similar
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FLYING TEST BED: One of the most peculiar sights at the air show was this IL-76 Flying Laboratory of Gromov Flight Research Institute which was the testbed for Kaveri engine
MoU with the Indian Institute of Science (IISc) in New Delhi to mark the 10th anniversary of first launch of its missile. The Moscow Aviation Institute is one of the world-leading engineering universities dedicated to aerospace technologies and the NPOM is one of the leading aerospace enterprises in Russia. THE AMERICAN PRESENCE An Air Force Global Strike Command B-52 bomber made an unprecedented flight to Moscow, taking the shortest and fastest route over the North Pole. It was one of several US military aircraft to take part in the MAKS 2011. The flight and the presence of the B-52 was a milestone, as it was the first time the aircraft flew directly over the geographical North Pole followed by a landing in Russia. The polar route is new but the notion of an exchange or warcraft with Russia isn’t. Various models of US military aircraft including the P-3C Orion, A-10 Thunderbolt II, F-16C Fighting Falcon, C-130J Super Hercules, C-5 Galaxy, F-15E Strike Eagle and KC-10 Extender were there at the show. KAVERI WHAT? And finally what was the Kaveri doing at the airborne testbed ? It is not being used for the Tejas. One report said that it had now been suggested that the engine was good enough for the Indian Railways and they could well end up using it. Good show, but the engine needs to move to a Railway show not an air show! September 2011
WHAT A SHAME! It requires no market intelligence to tell you that the manner in which the Air Force and the Ministry of Defence dealt with the long-time Dassault representative in India, Posina Rao, was nothing if not shameful. Here was an open-and-shut case of one of their own men, an officer at that who openly asked for a supply of good booze, money and plenty of other things from Rao during Aero India 2010. It is also well known that the officer was subsequently court martialed for his behaviour after an internal enquiry found that the complaint from Rao was entirely right and the gentleman in question was chargesheeted. So why was Posina Rao who had a blemishless record with the French company made persona non grata in Vayu Bhawan (Air Force headquarters) and the MoD. Now months and months after the episode and long after action has been taken against the IAF officer, Rao continues to wallow in the ‘no show’ zone. And what was his crime: he reported the obnoxious behaviour of a serving officer to the joint secretary in the Ministry of Defence and not the Air Force! It is time someone asks the IAF what action they have taken against the charge-sheeted officer and what precautions they have put in place to ensure people aren’t asked to pay below the table to park their exhibits! Or maybe we require another Anna for the Defence Ministry!
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KAMA SUTRA AND OTHER ISSUES CAN MANAGEMENT practices be part of the offset obligations? Well, to let the cat out of the bag, that’s what Hilary Clinton, wanted when she came calling sometime back. While Transfer of Technology (ToT) is now allowed as part of offset, there are few takers when the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is at a lowly 26 per cent. As one overseas marketing head remarked: “Indian defence offset is like the Kama Sutra, there are so many angles to it and it will take you a lifetime to unravel it.” No surprise, therefore, that the US push for the changes found an inscrutable AK Antony nodding his head and putting it in the shredder. With a low FDI, US companies are loathe to get into ToT issues because they simply are not interested in getting into a deal where they are not in command of their technology. To use their favourite phrase, ‘It isn’t value for money.’ What the American side suggested was to bring management practices undertaken in India by the firms as offset. And, pray, what would that be? How do you define these practices, what all would go into it and how would you calculate it? Kama Sutra, did you hear somebody utter the word?
DROWNING IN THE FLOOD While the offset continues to turn and toss, there are other issues that confront the sector for which they seem to be looking at options. One development has been the number of Indian defence joint ventures turning up as export units. Well, that doesn’t mean Indian defence firms have come of age. The hidden fact is: Indian cheap manufacturing is going to keep many of the companies buoyant in the current recession. The transfer of technology from the original manufacturer at 26 per cent stake doesn’t make much sense but if JV is used for export with at least 30 per cent cheaper production cost then the profit margin makes up for the less equity. But that’s only going to happen with the lesser technologies. And the option of subsidiary through which money can be transferred is always there. So make hay while the sun shines! As industrialist Anand Mahindra said some months back: “Really the danger is that the flood could drown us, guaranteed business always lulls us into complacency. I believe offset policy is only an enabler and not an end in itself. If we are smart, we are going to use this as a stepping stone to become part of the global supply chain.” Now, will that happen or will our manufacturers be just “profitable sweat shops”. Good point, but who is tell it to the policymakers.
Photo:H.C. Tiwari
WHAT’S VIVEK UP TO? So what is Dr Vivek Lal up to these days? Well, to start with he isn’t speaking. So obviously, he is up to something big. Experience tells us that when press conferences and releases are around the corner, then the best part of the deal is already done and over. If inside reports are to be believed, Dr Lal is working to set up a global standards team to look at four distinct areas where Reliance will focus in the coming years. The company has got a huge budget sanctioned by Chairman Mukesh Ambani and the grapevine tells us those products and most important processes, will start rolling out in the next few months. The company is expected to be headquartered in Gurgaon. Watch this space for an update. www.geopolitics.in
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September 2011
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INTERVIEW Svenska Aeroplan AB (aktiebolag) (Swedish for “Swedish Aeroplane Company Limited”) (SAAB) was founded in 1937 in Trollhättan. With the merger of SAAB and Linköpingbased ASJA the headquarters moved to Linköping. SAAB serves the global market with products, services and solutions from military defence to civil security. With operations on every continent, SAAB develops, adapts and improves new technology to meet customers’ needs. SAAB AB, as it is popularly known, is looking at India as a base for manufacturing and is hoping that the country will relax the rule on foreign direct investment (FDI) in defence. In an interview with ROHIT SRIVASTAVA, SAAB India head Inderjit Sial spoke about the future prospects of the company.
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September 2011
Photo: H.C.Tiwari
“WE ARE HERE TO STAY ON A LONG-TERM BASIS”
g INTERVIEW Q: Medium Multi-role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) decision has been a little disappointment for you, with the Gripen out of competition. What are SAAB’s plans in India? Sial: Well, we are fully committed to the Indian market. SAAB has a long-term view on the Indian market. We have a number of products which we are very confident about. We intend to place those products in Indian market and also share the technology with the Indian industry. We are extremely bullish irrespective of the decision on the Indian MMRCA. Q: What are major products that are on offer to India, especially in the field of internal security? Sial: Basically, we have quite a large civil security portfolio and we are examining alternatives to approach this market along with Indian partners, because it is easier for us to work in a partnership with Indian industry than to do it ourselves. So those areas are being examined. We also believe that it is a bit of a fragmented market, the reason being that the state governments have their own rules on civil security aspect. So, one has to take a path along with an Indian partner to approach this market. Q: Can you tell us about some of the products that you can offer… some of the categories of the products for internal security? Sial: For internal security, currently we are in the process of foliage penetration radar called CARABAS. We are looking at how to market this product in India. We are also looking at lot of C4Is solutions (command & control solutions) for the Indian market. For this we have a big portfolio from airport security to security of malls, power stations, nuclear power stations etc. We have solutions around the world for this. Q: Can you give us some details about CARABAS? Sial: The CARABAS is a helicopter-borne foliage-penetration-radar that can penetrate three to five metres below the ground. It does not require airframe modifications to the helicopter and can be installed on an Advanced Light Helicopter. It can also be installed on a rotary wing Unmanned Aerial Vehicle. It’s a new development at SAAB and we are looking at bringing it to India, seeing that there is a great market potential, with www.geopolitics.in
the difficult terrain and problems related to Naxalites and other opportunities in the civilian side. Q: Have you given any presentation to the authorities? Sial: We are currently in discussion with the DRDO for this to see it as a co-development. Then, of course, we will see how the industrialisation will take place. Q: Can you tell us something about the C4I solutions tha SAAB offers? Sial: We have a number of solutions for C4I, from battlefield management to combat management systems. We have a number of solutions on homeland security, which we are ready to share with Indian industry and approach the customers. Here the purchasing is not done like a Defence Procurement Procedure (DPP). It is more to do with working with the state governments to understand their needs and their requirements and try to indigenise solutions, which are tailormade for the states. Q: There are certain legal as well as commercial complications involved while dealing with the states as each of them have its own policies. Is this not a problem for a company like SAAB, which may not be familiar with Indian systems? Sial: That is why we have opted to work with the Indian industry. Indian industry is quite adept at dealing with various state laws, taxation etc. So we are happy to work as a partner with Indian industry to basically go out and market our products. This is something which depends upon a case-to-case basis to approach the state governments accordingly. Q: Will you be happy in doing a transfer of technology? Sial: Yes. Our philosophy is that we are ready to share the latest technology with the industry. Q: Can you tell us about the companies you have tied up with for joint ventures? Sial: Yes, we have tied up with Pipavav Shipyard for some of our underwater systems. We also have a tie-up with Mahindra-Satyam in the field of C4Is. We are working out a tie-up with HAL for Airborne Electronic Warfare. We have a MoU with them now. We are looking forward for a Joint Venture(JV ) company with them. We have multiple tie-ups with various Indian industry players. It may not be
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Joint Ventures; it may be just strategic agreements or MoUs. But we have strategic alliance with Mahindra-Satyam and Pipavav. Q: Would there be any joint development and transfer of technology in the tie-ups? Sial: Yes. We are not only looking at production for India but the global market as well. Q: In coastal security, recently we heard news about SAAB 2000 being offered for the Medium Range Maritime Reconnaissance Aircraft (MRMR) programme. Can you give us some details on this? Sial: We have responded to the Request for Information (RFI) for the MRMR programme with SAAB 2000 as a platform with all the systems, which are required including pylons and missiles on board. We have offered the RBS 15 missile systems on the platform. SAAB 2000 is a medium-range turbo-prop aircraft. We have used this platform very successfully in various naval and coastal programmes around the world. SAAB 2000 is the fastest turbo prop and has the best climb rate in its class. We believe that we have a great product and an offering, which is extremely competitive and attractive for the Indian market. Q: There is also news that a larger maritime patrol aircraft is being offered for the same programme. How do you see such a large aircraft, which India is buying in a large number? Sial: This is something for Boeing to answer and for the Indian officials to understand. As per the RFI about the size of the aircraft, at least from what we have been reading about it, is that the P8 is a much bigger aircraft than what has been asked for. Rest is up to the Navy and the Indian Government what they really want. What I can say from the technical specification of the MRMR RFI is that the Boeing aircraft is far too big for the requirement. Q: The production for SAAB 2000 was stopped in the 90s. How are you going to deliver the aircraft? Sial: The way we operate on this is that we basically bring back the aircraft. We rip it apart completely, put in completely new systems, new harnesses, new avionics, and new displays so it basically means a new cockpit. The airframe September 2011
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REMANUFACTURED PATROLMEN: SAAB is offering India the SAAB 2000 in the Medium Range Maritime Reconnaissance role
remains the same but serious modifications are carried out. We call it ZeroHour aircraft. We make it into a brand new aircraft. Q: So the airframe life is going to be short? Sial: Not really. That is why I said serious modifications are carried out. Let’s say, if a brand new aircraft is supposed to fly 25,000 hours or 30,000 hours, SAAB 2000 would also do the same. The performance indices on this aircraft would be exactly the same as a brand-new aircraft. We put in new warranty like it is done for a brand-new aircraft. Q: Have you given any presentation to Indian Navy? Sial: Yes, they are extremely happy with the aircraft that SAAB has provided. Q: SAAB 2000 will also have to be integrated into the upcoming coastal security system. So how flexible is this system to incorporate? Sial: The system is very flexible. Again, we have to see what the exact requirements of the Indian Navy are. We don’t know this as yet. We will only see it once we see the RFP and what we are supposed to do in it as far as integration is concerned. However, it is a very versatile platform, which we are offering. Q. Today everybody talks about systems in defence, which can be changed in a short duration from one version to another, a modular set-up. Does SAAB 2000 have this capability? www.geopolitics.in
Sial: Yes, absolutely. Systems can be integrated on a SAAB 2000 platform. Yes it can be done very easily. It can be changed from one version to another if it is required? Q: SAAB also has a lot of capability in land systems and India has a huge modernisation programme. What is SAAB’s interest in the field? Sial: As far as land systems are concerned, we are participating currently in the V-Shorad programme, which is a short-range air defence 6km interception with a system called RBS70 NG. It’s a brand-new system, which is very lethal. We have already responded to the RFP and submitted the offset bid. Now we are waiting for the TEC to get over post, which we will be called for the field trials. We have also responded to the RFIs for the Short-Range Surface-to-Air Missile (SR-SAM) and Quick Reaction Surface-toAir Missile (QR-SAM) and we are awaiting RFIs for both these products where we are offering our missile systems called BAMSE for both the products. Q: Quick reaction and short range are both different systems. Sial: It’s basically the same system. The mounting on vehicles is different. On SR SAM the mounting is on 4X4 vehicle while for the QR SAM it is 8X8 vehicle but the missile is the same. So that’s the difference between the two programmes. Q:They also operate under net-centric environment? Sial: Absolutely. So that is as far as our
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missile systems are concerned. We are already supplying the Carl Gustav system to the Ordnance Factory Board and to the new generation ammunition directly to the Indian Army. We have a number of solutions as regards to the Future Infantry Combat Vehicle programme (FICV ) (when you talk about modernisation of the land forces). So, FICV is going to be a big programme for us. Q: Is FICV programme going to be a ‘Make India’ programme? Sial: It will be a ‘Make India’ programme but we will indigenise and give a lot of subsystems to the vehicle manufacturers because we have the electronic warfare for the land systems called the LEDS-150 (Land Electronic Defence System). We have already offered it to India earlier for the T-90 upgrade programme. But that has been re-tendered now. We will be participating in the battlefield management system with Mahindra-Satyam as a partner. We are very aggressive and optimistic with the Indian market. We are here to stay on a long-term basis. We are totally committed to India to provide good partnership, good technology and real value where India gains a lot of independence with regards to technology. We are looking at developing products not only for the Indian market but for the global market in a cost-effective way. Q: That means you are looking at India as a future production base and codevelopment centre as it creates a winwin situation for both the countries. SAAB: Absolutely September 2011
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BULLET-PROOF JACKETS ORDERED THE JACKETS have been approved for Maharashtra by the Centre, according to Maharashtra Home Minister R R Patil. Union Home Minister P Chidambaram has directed the Maharashtra government that matters related to the procurement of bullet-proof jackets and weapons be ‘taken on top priority’. According to Patil a disputefree scheme for Mumbai through
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MILITANTS WAITING TO INFILTRATE INTO J&K
CRORE RUPEES FOR NATGRID
NATGRID IS the high-tech intelligence network which aims to collate sensitive information from databases of departments such as police, banks, tax, telecom to track any terror suspect. The Cabinet Committee on Security has already given an inprinciple nod to the ambitious project, which aims to bring together police and security agencies for a real-time exchange of data across the country. According to the Home Ministry proposal the amount will be spent over nearly four years in different phases to connect data providing organisations and users. A legal structure will
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community participation was also on the cards. In this plan, citizens would play the role of plain-clothed police to identify suspicious activity. The Maharashtra government has also appealed to the Centre for a speedy decision on regulating the use of ammonium nitrate, a material which is freely available and used in bombmaking.
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also be developed through which information can be accessed by the NATGRID. In the first phase, 10 user agencies and 21 service providers will be connected in 26 months, while in the latter phases about 950 additional organisations will be connected in 12 months and another over 1,000 organisations in the subsequent 12 months. The ground work notwithstanding, there is no clear consensus about the concept of an umbrella database, which will be gathered from different organisations, its security, possible misuse and privacy issues.
IAF PLANES LOST IN ACCIDENTS A PARLIAMENTARY panel was informed by the Defence Ministry that 39 per cent of these accidents occurred due to pilot error. The IAF has also lost over fifty per cent of its 946 MiG-series Soviet-origin fighter planes in air crashes. Of the thousand accidents, twelve cases were under investigation. Another 39.5 per cent air crashes took place due to technical defect in the aircraft and another 1.6 per cent were due to servicing errors on the aircraft. Nine per cent of crashes were caused by bird hits and even lesser — 0.6 per cent — were caused by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) error. In the case of MiG series aircraft, as per information made available to the committee, 476 MiG aicraft so far had met with accidents and the remaining fleet was 470 MiG aircraft. The high rate of accidents, the committee noted, was caused by technical defects pertaining to the old technology of the aircraft. India got its first supersonic combat jet, the Soviet-era MiG-21s, in early 1960s.
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ACCORDING TO Director General of Police, Kuldeep Khoda the militants on the other side of the LoC had been asked by their “mentors” to infiltrate into the state as the mountain passes closed due to the snowfall in the winter. Khoda also said that there had been a fall of around 70 per cent in the militancy-related incidents across the Jammu region. At the same time, there had been a decrease in the number of militants active in the region, he said and attributed the constantly dwindling number of militants to the relentless counterinsurgency operations and the waning support of the people to militancy. He added that there had been infiltration bids along the border in the Kashmir valley as well. However, he added that the number of militants active in the state had come down to between 250 and 300.
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DEFENCE MINISTER AK Antony informed NCP Rajya Sabha Member Janardan Waghmare, that out of the 12,000 acres of encroached Army land across the country, 3,080 acres were in Uttar Pradesh, followed by 2,487 acres in Maharashtra. In the Adarsh land scam, there was a dispute over the ownership of land. The Congress-led government claimed that it was the owner of the land, while the Ministry of Defence submitted that there was irregularity in transfer-
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ring the land to Adarsh Society. Antony said steps had been initiated to streamline proper land management
and protection in order to prevent misuse of defence land. The project on computerisation of Army lands
TERROR FIRs LODGED
ACCORDING TO Minister of State for Home Jitendra Singh’s reply to the Lok Sabha 148 FIRs have been registered and in 56 cases charge sheets have been filed. Rupees 5.6 cr meant for terror funding have been seized by the government since 2006. Five persons have been convicted by the competent www.geopolitics.in
ACRES OF DEFENCE LAND IN MAHARASHTRA ENCROACHED
courts. Singh was replying to a question whether there were inputs regarding instances of terror funding in the country and what action was taken by the government in this regard. To deal with such cases, the government has constituted a separate cell — Cell for Combating of Funding of Terrorism — in the Ministry of Home Affairs. Singh also explained that the Ministry of Home Affairs also constituted a Terror Funding and Fake Currency Cell in the National Investigation Agency to focus on terror funding and fake currency cases.
register and general lands register has been implemented. Two projects, one on digitisation of land records and another on survey of defence land using modern technology, have been approved and both projects will be implemented soon. Antony, who has entrusted the probe into the Adarsh scam to the CBI, added that considering the importance of land as a national resource, the Defence Ministry had decided to resume audit of defence lands.
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INDIANS IN PAKISTANI JAILS THIS IS the figure claimed by the Indian government, but Islamabad has acknowledged the presence of only 309 Indian prisoners. This is a severe disappointment for the families whose kin are lodged in jails in Pakistan. According to the Indian government, out of 558 Indian prisoners, 232 are civilian prisoners, 252 are fishermen and 74 are missing defence personnel. The missing defence personnel include 54 Prisoners of War (POW) since 1971.
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10,315 HACKING ATTACKS ON INDIAN WEBSITES
SUCH INCIDENTS have jumped 303 per cent between 2008 and 2010 alone according to the Indian Computer Emergency Response Team. One of the main vulnerabilities is the use of popular e-mail and social networking sites by the government’s 3.1 million employees to send and receive often sensitive data. Citing recent trends, officials say they anticipate increasing assaults on cyber security by foreign hackers, particularly from Pakistan and China. As a response, private messages of millions on social networking sites, such as Facebook, could be monitored and stored on a big-brother database, according to new plans being mulled by India to bolster its cyber defences. All new government websites will be audited for cyber security prior to hosting and the process would cover existing sites too. Indians moved up two slots this year to become the world’s thirdlargest Facebook community. According to Milind Deora, the Minister of State for Information Technology, the Department of Telecommunications has now been asked by the Home Ministry to ensure “effective monitoring of social networking websites such as Facebook and Twitter”.
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EXPLORING NEW HORIZONS WITH
HELICOPTERS In consonance with its fighter transformation plans, the Indian Air Force is slowly and steadily going ahead with the modernisation and augmentation of its helicopter fleet. The idea is to build new combat capabilities in the air-to-air sphere, writes SAURAV JHA
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Photo courtesy:www.flickr.com
LETHAL WEAPON: The AH-64 Apache gunship is one of the most formidable attack helicopters in the world
September 2011
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HE INDIAN Air Force (IAF) is one the few major forces in the world that likes to maintain a very large and diversified helicopter fleet rather than hand over the operational control of such assets to the Indian Army (IA). It is no wonder, therefore, that it is currently in the midst of recapitalising its entire legacy fleet of helicopter holdings across various classes and is even adding to existing capabilities through import as well as indigenous procurement. For the IAF, the helicopter represents a versatile asset that is as invaluable in moving troops quickly as it is in disaster-relief operations. The existing helicopter fleet of the IAF is around 350-strong, spanning the light, medium and heavy categories and includes both transport and attack types in the order of battle. However, nearly 80 per cent of its total inventory is at least two decades old. Clearly the time to look for replacements has arrived and the IAF is going much beyond a simple one-toone replacement pattern for its helicopter holdings. The heightened needs of today, including the ability to quickly move troops and supplies in the mountains,
counter low-flying unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and aerial improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and the IAF’s own increased operational tempo have convinced the IAF that new types of assets and capabilities must be added in order to successfully execute its brief. In fact, helicopter modernisation seems to be on par with the IAF’s fighter transformation plans and is being carried out in the same timeframe — the 12th (2012-17) and 13th (2017-22) Plan periods. Over the next ten years, the IAF will essentially double its total rotary assets by bringing in new-generation light utility helicopters (LUHs), heavy lift helicopters (HLH) and attack choppers while also upgrading and augmenting its current family of medium lift helicopters (MLH). The most near-term foreign acquisition by the IAF may be that of 22 heavyattack helicopters with a view to replacing the Mi-35s in its inventory. Boeing’s AH-64D Block III Longbow Apache and Rosvertol’s Mi-28N are in contention for VETERAN WORKHORSE: Although it has been in service since the Vietnam War, the Chinook has been constantly updated to keep it up-to-date in the 21st century battlefield
A CHOPPER FLEET FOR THE 21ST CENTURY IT WAS sometime in the 1950s that the first helicopter was introduced to the Indian Air Force. This was the Allouette, a French light communication helicopter which was inducted into the Indian Air Force inventory, during the late Fifties of the last century. A version of the Allouette called the Lama with skis in place of wheels was used in the snowy regions of the Himalayas. The Allouette was rechristened the Cheetah, and was manufactured under license at Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd at Bangalore. The IAF’s helicopter fleet has steadily increased in numbers over the past 20 years, blossoming from a handful of US types in the ‘60s to over 500 French, Indian and Soviet built types. The pride of the force is, undoubtedly, the Mi-26 heavy lift helicopter which has been operated by No. 126 Helicopter Unit (HU) with outstanding results in the mountains of northern India. The majority of rotorcraft still consists of Mi-17s and Mi-8s; well over 100 of these types serving in helicopter units throughout the country, playing a vital logistic support role. The Mi-8s are operated for commando assault tasks, for ferrying supplies and personnel to remote mountain helipads and jungle clearings, carrying out Search and Research Operations (SAR) and logistic support tasks in the island territories. They are also employed with the permanent Indian station in the Antarctica. The smaller Alouette III, renamed Chetak, is as ubiquitous, being employed for Casualty Evacuation (casevac), communications and liaison duties with the IAF having received over 150 examples of this versatile rotorcraft. www.geopolitics.in
In 1986, however, the Government of India formally constituted the Army’s Aviation Corps (AAC) and most Chetak and Cheetahs operating in Air Observation Post (AOP) Squadrons were transferred from the Air Force on November 1, 1986. The Air Force continues to fly armed Chetaks in the anti-tank role as well as for CASEVAC and general duties. In May 1984, No 125 Helicopter Unit was formed with the formidable Mi-25 gunship helicopter, used to devastating effect in Sri Lanka. The upgraded Mi 35 has followed in April 1990, with No 104 HU being reequipped with the type. The current helicopter fleet of the Indian Air Force is estimated to be nearly 300 strong. The fleet consists of approximately 75 Chetaks and Cheetahs, 150+ Mi-8s and Mi-17s and about 30 Mi-25/35 attack helicopters. The IAF also has four heavy-lift Mi-26 helicopters which are used sparingly as skycranes for special missions. The latest induction into the IAF is the HAL Dhruv - advanced light helicopter, about a dozen of which are in service currently. As things stand today, the IAF is looking to acquire more than 230 choppers in the near future. According to Air Chief Marshal (Retd) P V Naik, the force is in the process of acquiring helicopters of different types and sizes in the next couple of years. “We are acquiring 12 AW 101 VVIP helicopters, trials for 22 attack choppers are completed, 80 MI-17 IV helicopters are being inducted and 50-odd would be added, trials for 12 heavy-lift choppers are also in the final stage and will be completed soon,” he said.
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g COVERSTORY this tender, which is expected to be just a shade under 600 million dollars. Both types come equipped with millimeter wave radar (MMW ), all-weather day/night capability and a significant anti-armour missile-carrying capability. The Americans are once again pulling all stops to secure this order, which may eventually reach double the number outlined in the initial tender. However, something that may actually give the Apache an edge is the ability of the Block III variant to act as a command centre for UAVs and serve as a key node in networkcentric operations. An Apache order would therefore signal a shift in the IAF’s operational philosophy towards integrated cyber and kinetic operations. Although the IAF has taken recourse to the import route for its heavy attack helicopter requirement, it is nevertheless keenly involved with Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) in the development of an indigenous light combat helicopter (LCH) of which it tentatively plans to buy 65 units beginning 2015-16 even though initial operational capability (IOC) is expected in 2013. The LCH is a spin-off of the Dhruv Advanced Light Helicopter (ALH) from which its basic airframe is The Ministry of Defence is currently in the process of finalising helicopter gunships for the Indian Air Force (IAF) and the winner will either be the US-made AH 64 D Apache Longbow or the Russian Mil Mi 28 (Havoc) from Russia. The deal, exclusive of weapons and ammunition, is to be to the tune of $ 550 million and a decision is expected this month. The IAF intends to procure 22 attack helicopters and the trials have already been conducted in India as well in Russia and US for their respective helicopters. At present, the attack helicopter fleet comprises of ageing Soviet-origin Mi 25 and Mi 35 choppers with the IAF but is being used to support land operations of the Indian Army. As for the two contenders for the attack helicopter, the Russians have offered the twin-engine, twin-cockpit Mi 28 which have a single under-nose gun and rocket pods attached to short wings. On the other hand, the US is offering the Boeing-made AH64 D Apache helicopter which is a four-blade, twin-engine attack helicopter that fires Hellfire missiles and has a tandem cockpit for two. The Russian and the US helicopters are heavily armoured for close combat. The IAF commenced trials of the Apache in July 2010, after delivery from the USA by C-17 aircraft. Testing took place at Jaisalmer (in Rajasthan in the heart of the Thar Desert), followed by high-altitude trials at Leh (in mountainous Jammu and Kashmir) in August. Associated maintenance and weapon trials occurred in the USA. The Apache proposal is offered jointly by Boeing and the US Army, and it constitutes a direct commercial sale. If declared the winner, Boeing will manufacture Indian craft at its facility in Mesa, Arizona. Comparative trials with the Russian Mi-28N followed those of www.geopolitics.in
the Apache from August 2010 onwards. With design work commencing in 1980, the Mi-28 Havoc is optimised for the antiarmour role, and it is already in service with the Russian Air Force. The tandem-seat craft can operate in all types of weather, and a 30mm cannon is located in a chin-mounted turret. Besides the attack helicopters, the IAF will also be inking a contract this year for the acquisition of heavy-lift helicopters and the main contenders are Boeing’s CH-47 Chinook helicopter and the Russian Mil Mi 26 T2 helicopters. The IAF is looking to buy 15 heavy-lift helicopters chiefly to enable the transportation of the BAE Land Systems’ M777 ultra-light howitzers to high-altitude posts. A heavy-lift chopper is of strategic value as it can lift up to 70 armed troops and even lift artillery guns like the ultra-light howitzers which are being procured for deployment in mountainous areas bordering China and Pakistan. Among its other uses is the rapid deployment of missile launchers for Agni or Prithvi from one place to other. Mi-26 with 20tonne carrying capacity, which is the biggest among choppers, have even lifted Bofors guns to higher reaches, placed bulldozers at a height of 16,500 feet and landed critical equipment for the IAF at places like Ladakh. Above all, the most crucial contract is for the 197 light-utility helicopters for both the IAF and Indian Army which may be expanded to over 300 helicopters. The Eurocopter AS 550 Fennec and the Russian Kamov Ka 226 helicopters are in the race for this contract for which trials have been completed. These light-utility helicopters are meant for surveillance but can be used for combat operations as they can be armed. They will replace the vintage Cheetahs and Chetaks with the armed forces.
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CAVERNOUS GOLIATH: The Mi-26 set several records with its ability to lift outsize cargo in a variety of conditions
derived. It is powered by the new HALTurbomecca Shakti engine, which is more powerful than the Turbomecca TM 333 2B2 that powered early Dhruv variants and has been designed specifically to operate at very high altitudes (above 6000 metres) in rotary terms. After all, the LCH’s development was a direct result of the lessons learnt during the Kargil conflict when the IAF found to its utter dismay that it had no helicopters that could be used to dislodge intruders operating at altitudes in excess of 15,000 feet. Costly Mirage 2000 sorties had to do the job instead. In that sense, the LCH can become a game changer wherein India can bring significant firepower to bear in the mountains without resorting to expensive combat jet operations. The LCH is also a lynchpin in the IAF’s plan to counter the rising threat from low and slow UAVs as well as aid in cruise missile defence by acting as a sensor in the loop connected via data links. In the anti-UAV role both its Nexter THL-20 turreted cannon and infrared homing air-to-air missiles will be used to eliminate small but deadly airborne targets. Now even as the service branches into new capabilities in the air-to-air sphere, it understands that one of the primary tasks of its helicopter wing is to assist Indian Army (IA) logistics, that too in an environment where the IA’s logistical footprint in the mountains seems to be www.geopolitics.in
THE LCH’S DEVELOPMENT WAS A DIRECT RESULT OF THE LESSONS LEARNT DURING THE KARGIL CONFLICT rising. Accordingly, the IAF has a tender underway to purchase 15 HLHs. Once again the Americans and Russians are the only ones in the running — the former with the Boeing CH-47F Chinook and the latter with the modernised Mi26T. The IAF already operates three Mi26s of older vintage (down from four with one having crashed a few years ago) and has been facing serviceability issues with these units. While the capabilities of the Mi-26 are unquestioned, the issue of being able to maintain this helicopter affordably remains a question, especially since it is only now that the Russians themselves may be planning to place new orders for the Mi-26T version. The Chinook on the other hand is in production with procurement by the US Army continuing under a multi-year contract. Although the Chinook is a much smaller
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helicopter than the Mi-26 (which can carry up to 20 tonnes or the same as a C130J) it is no mean lifter in its own right, being rated for up to 12.7 tonnes — enough to transport an M777 155 mm ultra light howitzer being acquired by the IA. Regardless, it remains to be seen which way this tender will go. At the very opposite end of the spectrum is the IAF’s need to replace it existing Chetak and Cheetah light helicopters. As such, the IAF along with the IA is set to be a beneficiary of the Ministry of Defence’s (MODs) tender to procure 197 LUHs from abroad. The LUH tender has been through its share of ups and downs. The tender was actually suspended a few years ago, right after the Eurocopter’s AS550 C3 had been declared the winner over the Bell 407 by the IA, on account of the version used in the trials ( the AS 550 B2) being different from the one offered in the bid. Moreover in 2008, the entire tender was pared down to 197 from the original 384 on account of HAL stepping in to offer an indigenous solution that would make up the balance requirement of 187 units. Activities on this tender, however, have begun to gather speed and a decision is likely soon. The choice, this time over, is between the Eurocopter AS 550 C3 and the Kamov Ka-226 with the Bell 407 having since bowed out. Both are helicopters in the 1-1.5 tonne payload category and September 2011
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FEARSOME HUNTER: The Mi-28 Havoc is in direct competition with the Apache for India’s attack-helicopter programme
the versions offered to India are claimed by the manufacturers as optimal for Indian conditions. The Eurocopter bid may be ahead in the race given that not so long ago it was almost chosen to be the IA’s new bird in the light category. In any case the IAF has a requirement of up to 130-plus such units and out of that only a fraction will be met by this tender, with the rest going to the IA. The remainder will, therefore, be met by HAL’s indigenous solution in this category — the Light Observation Helicopter (LOH), which is likely to be developed with the assistance of whoever wins the initial contract. In a sense, the process will be similar to the IAF’s light trainer procurement, which also envisages outright purchase followed by joint development and production. The prime workhorse for the IAF’s transport helicopter fleet is of course its MLH flights of Mi-8/17s. Presently, more than 150 examples of this family are in IAF service with 15 more machines entering service this year. These are the first of a batch of 80 Mi-17BVs ordered from Russia in 2007-08 with a follow-on order for 59 more likely to be made soon. These will not only progressively replace some of the oldest Mi-8s, which are at the very end of their service lives, but also augment overall numbers. Indeed, some 108 older MLHs are due to be upgraded by the IAF extending their useful lives by a period of ten years. www.geopolitics.in
IAF’S TENDENCY TO BULK UP ON CHOPPERS HAS BEEN A SOURCE OF BITTER DISCONTENTMENT FOR THE ARMY Nevertheless, by 2020, many more of the IAF’s existing Mi-17s will have to be phased out and it is here that HAL has spotted an opportunity. HAL is currently conducting preliminary design studies for a 10-12-tonne weight category MLH which it intends to develop jointly with an international partner. This MLH has been dubbed the Indian Multi-Role Helicopter or IMRH and is envisaged as a replacement for the IAF’s Mi-17s. HAL’s confidence is no doubt shored up by the relative success of the Dhruv programme. Incidentally, the IAF has about 54 Dhruvs on order to complement its existing fleet of about two dozen machines. The new order is made up of Dhruv Mark-IIIs and IVs, the latter being the weapon systems integrated (WSI) version, and are in some ways half a generation ahead of the Mark-Is, which
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make up the existing IAF inventory. These machines are powered by HAL’s Shakti engine, which allows them to operate easily at much higher altitudes with greater payloads than the Mark-I. They also possess a new electronic warfare suite, advanced laser warning systems, missile warning systems and electro-optical pods, a new-generation vibration-control system and an automatic chaff-and-flare dispenser. Delivery of 10 Mark-IIIs to the IAF is expected soon. Heading into the 21st century, we find an IAF that remains keen on rotary assets and is putting in place a much larger helicopter holding structure. While the IAF will no doubt manage this transformation effectively, questions remain about just how significantly this will contribute to India’s overall combat effectiveness. In the past, the IAF’s tendency to bulk up on helicopters has been a source of bitter discontentment for the IA, which believes that helicopters, as in other major militaries, should ideally be an Army lookout, given the role they play in supporting ground combat. Especially acrimonious has been the debate between the IAF and IA on who gets to control the attack helicopter fleet. Clearly, the IAF’s helicopter plans would truly be realised when it works out a proper joint warfighting doctrine with the Army resulting in the seamless exploitation of pooled assets for combat effectiveness by the two services. September 2011
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“HELICOPTER IS A VERY VERSATILE COMBAT PLATFORM IN THE AIR TODAY” Air Chief Marshal (Retd.) Fali H Major was the first helicopter pilot to be the chief of the Indian Air Force. He is of the firm opinion that if the IAF is poised at the threshold of a transformational change today, it requires an extraordinary amount of integration between the DRDO (Defence Research and Development Organisation), PSUs (public sector units), private industry, government and the user (IAF). If this is done successfully, the IAF will leapfrog a generation ahead, and become a credible and demonstrable aerospace power in the region, he says. In this context, he talked to PRAKASH NANDA on the role that helicopters play in augmenting India’s air power www.geopolitics.in
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Photo courtesy:nosint.blogspot.com
Q: India is a rising power. Keeping the long-term vision and goal of the Indian Air force in mind, how do you assess our present helicopter fleet? FHM: Given the Indian role in the region and the nature of conflict which is more towards the lower spectrum of conflict such as terrorism, insurgency and militancy etc. the role of helicopters can’t be over-emphasised. The helicopters have a very important role to play. And given the present state of affairs in the Indian Air Force, one must say that the strength of its helicopter fleet is not what it should be. However, in last three or four years, a lot of effort has been made and quite a few helicopters are in the pipeline. So all types of helicopters, whether they are utility, attack, heavy lift, medium lift, the process for acquisition is on. Some of them like Mi 17 V have started coming by the end of this year. The contract for the heavy-lift helicopters is nearing finalisation and the light utility helicopter (LUH) contract is almost in the last stage of finalisation. But all this needs to be done on a priority, because some of our older helicopters such as Cheetah and Chetak don’t have very much life left. They are very old, very unreliable, and extremely expensive to maintain. So this process of getting helicopters must be completed as fast as possible.
A CHOPPER FOR ALL SEASONS: India operates one of the largest fleets of Mi-17 helicopters and even more have been ordered
been ruined by the arms race. Therefore, what you need is not numbers but capability and if you have capability then you will accomplish your missions. I think it is a better way of looking at things that way rather than through numbers.
Q: It seems there is confusion over the number of helicopters we are buying? FHM:There is no confusion. I think the Mi 17 V we are buying are 80 in number. We are acquiring 22 attack helicopters, 15 heavy-lift helicopters, 197 light utility helicopters, all coming through direct import. All this is in the pipeline. The present strength of helicopters, that is the ones that we have, have a life of another 10-15 years at the most. So once our planned acquisitions of new ones are complete, the IAF will be in comfortable position.
THE MEDIUM AND HEAVY-LIFT HELICOPTERS ARE NOT FOR AIR FORCE BUT ARE FOR ARMY SUPPORT
Q: There is one theory that since all three services need helicopters, there should be fine-tuning of their requirements and there should as much coordination as possible in issuing tenders and bargaining with foreign vendors. Do you think that such an approach will impact adversely on the priority requirements of individual service? FHM: I do not think so. What is probably meant is that if the requirement is common among the three services then they purchase it together. And that has many advantages. One is that you can leverage the price as the number is large. But, at the same time, it should also be realised that at every stage such coordination is not possible. For instance, the medium and heavy-lift helicopters are not for Air Force but are for Army support.
Q: Do you think that the number of helicopters we have or are planning to have is adequate, keeping in view our two traditional adversaries: China and Pakistan? FHM: I will say that there is no limit to adequate number. It all depends on how you define it. But one thing that we should keep in mind is that the number should not be such to result in an arms race. After all, many countries have
Q:Traditionally, helicopters have been used to provide logistic support to other forces. What changes have occurred recently when we are talking about the role of helicopters? FHM: It has already changed a lot. Now helicopters have got attack role, gunship role, surveillance role and many other roles. Helicopter is a very versatile combat platform in the air today.
Q: There is this ownership debate among the forces about who should own these helicopters. How do you look at it? FHM: Yes, there is a debate and it is all around the world. We have to look at the cost-effective solution. If the bread and butter happens to be aviation and aerospace, then does it make sense that the agency with many established organisations and systems for air power should leave aviation? The Navy leads in sea
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POSITIVE OUTLOOK: Air Chief Marshal (Retd.) Fali Major is happy that India is not depending solely on one supplier for its choppers
power. The Army leads in land power. So why cannot the Air Force keep all the airrelated assets, which are meant for joint operation? After all, the Air Force doesn’t go to war for itself. The utility and heavy-lift helicopters are with Air Force, but these are essentially to help the Army. The asset is with Air Force because the expertise is with Air Force. What is important is here is that the core competence of the force should remain same. Ours is a huge country and we shouldn’t compare ourself with countries like England. First of all, they don’t have enemies on their border. Secondly, they are very small, whereas, is the case here, each asset is with each force. See the division that will take place, see the control of the assets which will be dispersed. It is not a cost-effective way of fighting a war. In the ultimate analysis, cost to the nation is also very important. Your training establishment is with the Air Force. Now, if you establish institution in the Army, you are wasting money. These are the aspects that need to be considered. So, it is a wrong thing to say that the Army wants this or the Air Force wants this. Let us talk of joint capability. Ownership doesn’t matter. It is for the total military capability of the country. www.geopolitics.in
Q: How do you see the role of helicopter in high altitude wars? FHM: Every qualitative requirement for new helicopters that we are going to have is based on where they are going to fight. It is based on what area they are going to fight. In every acquisition, it is automatically factored in that they should have high altitude fighting capability.
QUALITATIVE REQUIREMENTS FOR NEW CHOPPERS ARE BASED ON WHERE THEY ARE GOING TO FIGHT Q: What about our indigenous strength in making helicopters? HAL is developing Advance Light Helicopters (ALH) and Light Combat Helicopters (LCH). How are they? FHM: Yes, the HAL is developing light combat helicopters. It is happening but a lot more needs to be done. There is no doubt that the ALH is to reduce imports
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and increase indeginisation. For that we need not only public sector undertaking but also increased private participation. The government should encourage private participation. It has made some small efforts but much more is required. So there has to be a level playing field between public and private sectors. Q: Your assessment of ALH Dhruv. Are you satisfied with its performance? FHM: Dhruv is already in the service with Army and Air Force. The initial batches were not very good and there were problems with their maintenance. But things are improving. Huge problems that existed initially are gradually coming down. Q: What do you think about diversifying the acquisition base? Are we depending too much on Russia? FHM: Well, not any more. Mi17 medium helicopter from Russia is, perhaps, the best for the role that we require them at high altitude. So it is good that we identify countries with whatever they are good at. We are not putting all our eggs in one basket. That is happening now you can see how there are Americans on the scene. Dependence on only one country is an old thing, which our country has overcome. September 2011
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INTERNAL SECURITY
MORE POWER TO THE MEN-AT-ARMS The Indian security forces urgently require an infusion of top-oof-tthe-lline equipment to meet the menace of urban terror
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MENACE OF FAKE CURRENCY FOUR IN every 1,000 currency notes in circulation in India are fake, amounting to as much as `3,200 crore in 2010 — a confidential government report has found in a firstever attempt to estimate the quantum of counterfeit notes in the country. The so-called white paper on the status of fake Indian currency notes, prepared jointly by the Intelligence Bureau, Research and Analysis Wing, Directorate of Revenue Intelligence and the Central Bureau of Investigation, says this seriously affects the “credibility of the rupee as legal tender”. A leading business daily, which claims to possess the copy of the report that was submitted to the government last June, says that fake currency is 0.0004-0.0012 per cent of bank notes in circulation.
The report, which is not in the public domain, also points a finger at Pakistan, saying its government officials are directly involved in the process of making and distributing large numbers of fake notes. Fake
notes that flowed into India in 2010 from abroad were “in the range of `1,500-1,700 crore”, the white paper said. Total counterfeit currency in circulation amounted to `3,200 crore in 2010, it added. The incidence of fake notes in various countries has typically been lower than what the white paper has found in India, experts say. India’s vulnerability to fake notes was highlighted in the 2011 International Narcotics Control Strategy Report prepared by the US State Department. The paper used for fake notes is made of 100 per cent cotton rag and a security thread is inserted during the manufacturing process that replicates several other sophisticated features, making the currency nearly impossible to detect, the report said.
NO FACEBOOK AND GOOGLE IN MHA THE UNION Home Ministry (MHA) has banned its officials and staff from opening “social networking sites such as Google and Facebook and the websites of free online games” on official government computers after it received fresh reports of cyber espionage attacks on sensitive government installations. The Home Ministry advisory warns that attackers have used “Google, Facebook and some other social networking web portals” to “identify critical individuals” to “steal information and passwords for further espionage from the infected computer”. The detailed advisory has been sent to all Home Ministry offices in New Delhi — at North Block, Jaisalmer House and Lok Nayak Bhavan. Explaining the modus operandi of recent cyber atwww.geopolitics.in
tacks, the MHA advisory said the attackers had used social networking sites to “identify critical individuals and thereafter did a recce of those entities... After the recce, the attackers prepared a maliciously-crafted Microsoft Word file, Microsoft Excel File or the PDF document with the title of in-
terest to the targeted entity.” It explained: “Once opened, the attachment executed some of the malicious scripts and downloaded the second level of binaries from a URL. These binaries would act at the command of the attacker, including stealing some of the information and passwords for further espionage.”
MHA officials have been told not to access personal emails on the Internet from an official computer. There should be a restricted usage of USB computer storage media such as pen drives, memory sticks and external hard disk drives. Officers, moreover, should not visit any website “not connected” to his/her work, the advisory said. T h e officials have also been directed not to use personal email accounts such as those on Yahoo, Rediffmail, Gmail, Hotmail, etc for official matters, even for drafting concept notes, and use only NIC email accounts to send official information. The MHA also asked its officials to change passwords every 15 days and not disclose these to anyone.
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SCHOOL OF ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE! THE GOVERNMENT has decided to set up a 'Multidisciplinar y School of Economic Intelligence' to develop capacity building in the area of economic intelligence. A committee comprising DG, NACEN (National Academy of Custom Excise and Narcotics), ADG, NACEN, Mumbai and DDG (AC), Central Economic Intelligence Bureau (CEIB) with DG, CEIB as Chairman has been constituted to work out the modalities for setting up the school and determining the curriculum, according to Minister of State for Home, Jitendra Singh.
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FLAWS IN COASTAL SECURITY NOTING THAT the Coast Guard continued to suffer from shortages in its force levels and was “ill-equipped” to discharge its enhanced role, the Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) has criticised the government for the inordinate delay in putting in place coastal security guidelines after the 26/11 Mumbai terror attacks in 2008. “In an era of heightened coastal security concerns, the Indian Coast Guard remains ill-equipped to discharge its enhanced role and meet the challenges of today...Post 26/11, the response of the Coast Guard and the government has been ‘ad hoc’, as can be seen in the increased patrolling, increased funding, fast-tracking procurements,” the report said. Since its inception in 1978, various security concerns — such as maritime terrorism, illegal arms trafficking — have mushroomed, and the Coast Guard has been increasingly engaged in the coastal/maritime security and patrolling. The report covers the period 2004-05 to 2009-10 and reviews the prevailing
arrangements in the Coast Guard in the context of its mandate. The CAG noted that although coastal security was a major concern after the 26/11 attacks, “the government failed to issue clear-cut directions or enunciate a policy for coastal security till recently”. The audit report found that only 30 out of the 42 Coast Guard stations sanctioned
had been activated as on December last year. Of these, 16 did not have basic facilities such as jetties for berthing ships and fuelling facilities. The delay in replacing old and ageing vessels led to the Coast Guard functioning with ships which had outlived their prescribed life. Close to half the number of Ad-
ASSAM RIFLES RETAIN MYANMAR BORDER
CISF TO FLY TO THE RESCUE THE CENTRAL Industrial Security Force (CISF) that guards 131 Metro stations across Delhi and the National Capital Region (NCR) has proposed integrated helicopter services to tackle the contingencies arising out of a terrorist attack or natural disaster. The paramilitary force is in the process of identifying strategic locations in Delhi and the NCR for landing helicopters in order to cover the maximum number of Metro stations from the identified sites. Airborne support to police and security forces is a standard operating procedure( SOP) across major Capitals in the world and the move, when it takes shape, would be a significant force multiplier for Delhi with an official population of 1.3 crore, besides bustling satellites like Gurgaon, Faridabad, Noida and Ghaziabad. Over 17 lakh passengers travel daily by the 195-km Metro rail network connected by 131 Metro stations across Delhi and NCR.
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vanced Offshore Patrol Vessels and 72 per cent of Fast Patrol Vessels were on extended life. The report also noted that manpower shortages were significant — 46 per cent in the case of officers and 42 per cent in the case of enrolled personnel. Post 26/11, the report said, the creation of an apex body for the management of maritime affairs for institutionalised linkages was suggested. It was, however, only in February 2009 that the government established a coordinated command structure and designated the Navy as the authority responsible for overall maritime security, including coastal offshore security. “Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) in respect of coastal States have also been finalised only between June 2010 and September 2010. Thus, there were no clear directions and guidelines regarding coastal security operations per se for a considerable time and were put in place only post 26/11,” the report said. The report has stressed the need for ensuring greater coordination among the maritime and other agencies.
THE ASSAM Rifles is likely to continue with its vigil on the IndoMyanmar border, despite talks of the Border Security Force (BSF) replacing the oldest paramilitary force in this frontier, Assam Rifles Director General Lt Gen Rameshwar Roy has hinted. “Discussions are going on. But I am sure ultimately it will be in our favour. Indications are such. Assam Rifles has domain knowledge about the people, terrain and complete operational situation at the Myanmar border,” he told the press recently. As the Assam Rifles has been manning the 1,640-kms border for many years now, it would be difficult to replace it, he said. The Assam Rifles was entrusted with the responsibility of guarding the border with Myanmar in 2002 when the strength of the force was 30 battalions only. Gradually, the strength of the force was increased to 46 battalions, while 20 more battalions are being raised currently. The Assam Rifles has started raising an Inspector General headquarters at Silchar in Assam. Three sector headquarters would be set up at Dimapur (Nagaland), Haflong (Assam) and Senapati (Manipur). Militant groups of the Northeast have hideouts in Myanmar and use the porous border for entering and moving out of the country.
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COUNTERING URBAN TERRORISM
As the National Security Guard is India’s primary strike force for counter-terrorist operations, it must be given the wherewithal to respond swiftly to urban terror attacks to minimise casualties and deny the perpetrators the ability to consolidate, argues N MANOHARAN
T
HE RECENT serial bomb blasts in Mumbai are indicative of how urban terrorism has taken firm roots in India. Since 2003 alone, this is the 18th major attack in an Indian urban area and fifth in Mumbai. Other victim cities include Delhi, Kolkata, Guwahati, Hyderabad, Bengaluru, Jaipur, Varanasi, Pune, Kanpur, Coimbatore, Srinagar, Jammu and Ahmedabad. All of these attacks led to large-scale casualties, material damage and disruption of life and economic activity. While urban terrorism is relatively new to India, it has a long history in the international arena. The Irish Republican Army had fought British forces in the urban expanse of Great Britain for several decades before reaching a negotiated political settlement. The Baader-Meinhof gang, a Communist urban guerrilla group, was responsible for several acts of terrorism in Germany in the 1960s and 1970s. Most of the terror groups in Latin America are urban-based. Palestinian militants have managed to launch numerous urban terror attacks on Israeli civilians despite Israel’s vigorous preemptive measures and a pro-active response strategy. Members of Aum Shinrikyo, a cult group, carried out five coordinated sarin gas attacks on several lines of the Tokyo metro in March 1995. Chechen rebels have been fighting Russia since the 1990s, mostly in urban set-ups. The phenomenon reached India’s shores in 1993 with the serial bomb blasts in www.geopolitics.in
Mumbai, but took a decade to reach the present level of intensity. As terrorists are rational in their choice of terrain and targets, evaluating strengths and weaknesses and costs and benefits, urban terrain holds significant advantages. As is the characteristic of urban areas, population is not only high, but also dense. Unlike in rural areas, inhabitants in cities and towns are more heterogeneous that gives more space for anonymity. It is this posture of anonymity that enables the terrorist fish to swim easily; an excellent place for camouflage. For terrorists, logistical support such as arms, medicines, food, and lodging are readily available in an average urban area. Maneuverability of terrorists is guaranteed by the presence of public and private transportation facilities that are both dependable and unobtrusive. In urban areas, a terrorist group may find it easier to recruit prospective terrorists in a predictable manner, for it is the city that nurtures dissidence in general. Cities are the nerve centres of a country. It is in urban areas where targets are most varied and abundant: laymen, officials, foreign nationals, corporate heavyweights, government buildings with symbolic/strategic value, bus stands, railway stations, airports, markets, foreign
embassies, communication centres, etc. By attacking high-profile symbolic targets, the terrorists wish to make a point that if a government fails to protect highvalue targets, it is obvious that it may not be in a position to protect the normal ones. As a result, the credibility of the
HARD TO KILL: Well-armed terrorists are not easy to fight in urban terrain as tall buildings and narrow lanes provide inherent protection to them
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g INTERNALSECURITY government of the day is undermined. Since the quality and quantity of terrorists’ ‘defined enemy’ is high in cities, the impact of a destructive act is more widespread. This also gives an added advantage to terrorists to prevent any kind of indiscriminate counter-terrorist operation by the state that could maximise collateral damage. For the same reason, use of aerial bombardment against terrorists becomes difficult. Urban operations, for terrorists, also often demand less in the way of brute physical strength and endurance than do operations in mountainous or rural terrain. And, they do not need sophisticated long-range weapons to inflict the desired damage. As the 26/11 experience has shown, well-armed terrorists are not easy to fight in urban terrain as tall buildings, narrow lanes and alleys provide inherent protection to them and make the security forces easy targets. The presence of hostages further complicates military or police operations. Similarly, improvised explosive device (IED) attacks and suicide bombings are extremely difficult to detect or prevent in time. Since terrorism is ‘propaganda by the deed’, the attention seeking goal of terrorists is well served in the urban
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URBAN TERRORISM IS A MAJOR THREAT TO THE STATE AND TO THE SOCIETY IN INDIA environment, where the immediate audience is large and where representatives of print and electronic media are readily available and quite eager to report. Such coverage also magnifies the fear-generating capabilities of terrorists. If the general population begins to fear, the objective of a terrorist group may have been achieved. Overall, an urban landscape facilitates terrorists in realising their goals: surprise, maximum damage with minimum risk, hyper media attention and subsequent disappearance. The aim of the terrorist organisations planning strikes in Indian cities is to create an environment of panic leading to a majority community backlash against
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the minority so that India’s secular credentials are undermined. They also seek to force the government machinery to react with repression and violence that can be fed as ‘motivators’. The tools of terror are car and scooter bombs, improvised explosive devices (IEDs) placed in trains and buses and, occasionally, suicide bombings. Assassination attempts and kidnappings are bound to follow. For instance, the tactics, techniques and procedures adopted by 26/11 attackers clearly indicate that they had been given commando training either by the Special Services Group (SSG), the elite Special Forces of the Pakistan army, or by retired Pakistani mercenary commandos. Though it is a relatively new phenomenon, urban terrorism is gradually taking root as a major threat to the state and to the society in India, particularly because it is being overlooked by neighbouring countries whose governments are either unwilling or unable to control anti-Indian non-state actors operating from their soil. Since it is a new threat whose various manifestations are yet to be fully comprehended, India’s response has been sluggish and less than appropriate. Preventing and countering this menace needs coordinated response at the national level. The central and state governments must rely on both preventive strategies — premised on accurate and timely intelligence acquisition — and counter-terrorist operations to fight the scourge of urban terrorism. The key to success in fighting urban terrorism lies in obtaining accurate intelligence about impending attacks and the neutralisation of the terrorists before they can launch their planned attacks. Since the threat of urban terrorism is transnational in nature, there is an urgent need for regional and international networking of friendly intelligence agencies. Most importantly, the central and state intelligence agencies should share information methodically and it must trickle down in realtime to the user. While electronic surveillance, including the interception of communications, is no doubt useful, it is of critical importance to penetrate the networks and sleeper cells of the terrorist organisations to gain actionable intelligence. Since the terrorists usually choose highprofile soft targets, where the presence of ‘defined enemy’ is abundant, they should be put under maximum surveillance and protection. The staff manning these places should be trained in rendering first aid, evacuation techniques, and rescue and September 2011
g INTERNALSECURITY relief operations. Surveillance cameras, is difficult to identify a terrorist, who is metal and explosive vapour detectors and anonymous and blends seamlessly into X-ray scanning machines should be the environment, in which he is living and installed at key access points. Technology operating. An effective battle against terto detect and alert suspicious activities rorism can be waged only by involving such as loitering by an individual or vehimembers of the public. This includes crecle should be made use of. Security perating societal awareness to keep a steady sonnel should be sensitised to spotting eye on tentative or errant behaviour in the and segregating unattended objects that neighbourhood and sharing of informaare left behind. tion of suspicious movements with point The success of counter-terrorism operpersons in the police and intelligence ations, especially in the urban domain, agencies. For instance, on every New York depends to a considerable extent on a City subway train, the message to passenspeedy response by the gers since the terrorist right force that is trained, attacks of 9/11 has been armed and equipped suitclear: “If you see someably for the job at hand. thing, say something.” As the National Security For this purpose, urban Guard is India’s primary Indians must organise strike force for counterthemselves into neighterrorist operations, it bourhood watch commust be given the wheremittees through comwithal to respond swiftly munity consensus to urban terror attacks to mechanisms based on minimise casualties and genuine concern to predeny the perpetrators the vent future terrorist ability to consolidate. The attacks. All communicentral government’s ties should cooperate in recent decision to locate counter-terror measNSG echelons in the cities ures instead of perceivthat have been targeted ing some as the “other”. most frequently will The community of Indienable the force to an fishermen should respond in a timelier keep a constant tab on manner. The NSG, howevcoastal waters. Awareer, must also be equipped ness creation among with the state-of-the-art SOME HELP REQUIRED: NSG needs better equipment to enhance its people should also technology and equip- operational performance and minimise casualties include ‘golden rules’ to ment to enable the combe followed by the peomandos to enhance their operational constables are poorly armed and the fireple in case of a terrorist attack. Such familperformance and minimise their own men lack protection. This should be rectiiarisation will not only minimise the casualties. Where necessary, the Indian fied on an urgent basis. Rehearsals should lethality of terrorist attacks, but also Army’s elite Special Forces should be be periodically undertaken for search-andreduce the consequent panic. employed to counter terrorist attacks in rescue operations after large-scale terrorist Also, urban terrorism is not a phenomeurban areas. Every state, in fact, should strikes. Different contingencies should be non that India can fight alone. It is only have an NSG-type of commando force to simulated and practised. Future training through a concerted international counter lethal terror strikes. Rehearsals should also cater for terrorist attacks in the approach that the adverse impact of growshould be periodically undertaken for form of WMDs. Efficiency bar for the police ing urban terrorism can be minimised. search-and-rescue operations after largeshould be raised that is presently low. For Since terrorism has become a global menscale terrorist strikes. Different continthis, significant improvement is called for ace, cooperation with other friendly coungencies should be simulated and pracin training of policemen and officers. There tries, which are also victims of terror, is tised. Future training should also cater for are little or no training institutions for crucial in countering it. Cooperation could tackling terrorist attacks using Weapons police personnel at the lower levels in the be in the following fields: joint military of Mass Destruction (WMDs). states. Generally, police personnel are exercises, sharing of information and intelLack of proper equipment for police retrained or oriented only once in about 20 ligence, which are credible and not cospersonnel came to the fore during 26/11 years. This should be rectified on an urgent metic, mutual legal assistance and extradiMumbai terror attack. For instance, even basis. Police training must also keep pace tion, and provision of requisite arms and NSG commandoes did not possess highwith the best practices being followed elsetechnology. power night-vision devices to locate the where in the world. terrorists, or the technology to determine Most importantly, without the eyes, (The author is Senior Fellow, Centre where gunfire was coming from. Police ears and intuition of the common man, it for Land Warfare Studies, New Delhi)
INDIA’S RESPONSE TO URBAN TERRORISM HAS BEEN SLUGGISH AND LESS THAN APPROPRIATE
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September 2011
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GEOPOLITICS
INTERNALSECURITY
PUBLIC SECURITY AND FEDERALISM
The recent Supreme Court judgment on the Salwa Judum movement in Chhattisgarh opens a new ground for looking afresh at the entire concept of public security in India’s federal framework, argues AJAY K MEHRA
A
S IF to vindicate the Supreme Court (SC) stance on Salwa Judum (SJ) in its widely debated judgment that has split public opinion sharply on multiple axes, an encounter death of a ‘Lashkar-e-Taiba militant’ after a 12-hour gun battle on August 7, 2011, in Poonch (Jammu and Kashmir) has turned out to be a staged killing of a mentally-challenged person by a jawan of the Territorial Army and a Special Police Officer (SPO) for rewards and medals. In criticising the SC for dismantling the SJ, an organised militia under the provisions of the Indian Police Act (IPA) 1861 and its state variation, the Chhattisgarh Police Act (CPA) 2007, the analysts appear to have mostly been guided by the alleged www.geopolitics.in
‘rhetoric’ in the judgment that took cues from some literary and social science writings to criticise the ‘neo-liberal paradigm’ of development that was leading to exploitation and consequent agitation politics and rebellion. This has been misconstrued by some as an indirect endorsement of Maoist ideology and politics. Others, particularly those supporting the state effort to stem the spread and strengthening of Maoist politics, have seen in dismantling of the SJ a weakening of Chhattisgarh’s security efforts, for it would immediately create an avoidable void of local manpower that was assisting the state effort with its familiarity with local language, culture and topography. The human rights camp that had gone in to appeal to the apex
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court welcomed the judgment and scrapping of the SJ rested quietly on its laurels rather than treating the judgment as a peg to advance suggestions for a holistic reform of the public security architecture of the country. Both the Union and Chhattisgarh governments have moved for the full bench of the apex court to seek review of the two-judge bench verdict on the ground that appointment of SPOs is an executive domain, where decisions are taken on the prevailing security needs of the people. The Chhattisgarh government, on the other hand, has decided to recruit the dismissed and disarmed SPOs as constables by lowering the criteria. It is also notable that the Maoists reacted first to widespread fears of reprisals against the September 2011
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SUPREME COURT'S DECISION IS A SIGNIFICANT STATEMENT ON POLICE POWERS OF THE STATE
HISTORIC RULING: The Supreme Court placed the spread of Maoism in the context of development deficit in tribal areas and consequent difficulties faced by the adivasis
dismissed SPOs by strategically granting them ‘amnesty’. It may be noted here that the judges of the Supreme Court bench consisting of Justice B Sudershan Reddy and Justice Surinder Singh Nijjar had placed the spread of Maoism in the larger context of development deficit in tribal areas and consequent difficulties faced by the adivasis in Chhattisgarh. They buttressed their arguments quoting from social science literature and report of the expert group appointed by the Planning Commission. In striking down the constitution of the SJ under the provision for SPOs in the Indian Police Act (IPA) 1861 and its derivative the Chhattisgarh Police Act (CPA) 2007, the judges took a comprehensive view of the concept and design of www.geopolitics.in
SPOs, the way the provision was used in this particular context and its impact on the young tribals recruited as SPOs. The court ordered the Chhattisgarh government to disband the SJ, stopped the Union of India from funding any such initiative by any state government and directed the Chhattisgarh government to recall firearms from the SPOs and protect their lives from the Maoists. The judgment also declared the sections of the Chhattisgarh Police Act 2007, providing for the appointment of SPOs unconstitutional. Inherent in the judgment is an interrogation as to how far the state’s right to use legitimised force/violence can be extended and whether it can be rested with a semi-trained militia, even if temporarily; in this case, the time frame was undefined — which indeed could not have been defined. In a democratic context such a right is capped by the rule of law on the one hand and citizen’s and nation’s security needs on the other. The apex court began by linking this episode to human dignity: “…modern constitutionalism posits that no wielder of power should be allowed to claim the right to perpetrate state violence against anyone, much less its own citizens, unchecked by law, and notions of innate human dignity of every individual.” In the same vein, the judges said: “To pursue policies whereby guns are distributed amongst barely literate youth amongst the poor to control the disaffection in such segments of the population would be tantamount to sowing of suicide pills that could divide and destroy society.” This is a significant statement on police powers of the state with a long-term significance made by the Supreme Court of India. The court found the government version of SPOs deficient on five parameters it set: (i) the required qualification for such an appointment; (ii) the manner and extent of their training; (iii) the mode
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of control of the activities of such SPOs by the state of Chhattisgarh; (iv) what special provisions were made to protect the SPOs and their families in the event of serious injuries or death while performing their ‘duties’; and (v) what provision and modalities were in place for discharge of an appointed SPO from duty and the retrieval of the firearms given to them in line of their duties, and also with regard to their safety and security after performing their duties as SPOs for a temporary period. The Court did not find merit in the argument that the SPOs served as an ‘auxiliary force and force multiplier’. It is to be noted that Sections 17-19 of the IPA 1861 make provision for SPOs as agents of the police within the community. Though by providing the condition that when “the police force ordinarily employed for preventing the peace is not sufficient for its (riot or disturbance) prevention and the protection of the inhabitants and security of property” an officer of the rank of Inspector and above could seek magisterial approval for SPOs and appoint them with same powers as that of “the ordinary officers of police” (s 18). However, section 19 creates a conscription like situation, because “(if ) any person, being appointed as special police-officers as aforesaid, shall without sufficient excuse, … refuse to serve as such …he shall be liable, upon conviction before a Magistrate, to a fine not exceeding fifty rupees for every such neglect, refusal or disobedience”. These provisions and rules are obviously colonial constructs, created in the wake of 1857 to conscript the community for the defence of the ‘Raj’. The Chhattisgarh Police Act (CPA) 2007 {s 9 (1)}, on the other hand, as the apex court pointed out, is absolutely vague about these matters, leaving it to the Superintendent of Police in a district to decide. That the CPA does not mention either the number, or the time-frame and conditions for the appointment of SPOs in a district, leaves it open to interpretation at the convenience of the government and the political regime at a time. In any case, a reading does not give the impression that these provision are for raising an ‘auxiliary force’ or ‘force multiplier’ militia. Further, having been enacted two years after the militia was raised; it appears to leave no room for justification. Significantly, two years are also sufficient time to raise specially trained cops to deal with this special situation; which was not done. September 2011
g INTERNALSECURITY
LEFT IN THE LURCH: Although granted an ‘amnesty’ by the Naxals the court order has left a large number of Salwa Judum members at their mercy
In fact, the SC judgment came six years after the creation, or coming into existence ‘voluntarily’, of the SJ; yet the state government did not even mention that it planned to fill the shortage of the police personnel to meet this extraordinary threat. An obdurate and face-saving attempt to justify the SPO provision and the creation of the SJ is counter-productive in the long run and the Union government should lead the way in the federal spirit of the Constitution of India to www.geopolitics.in
focus on police reforms with a focus on public security. The SPO provision in the IPA 1861 and its variants in states holds the prospect of a new design for community policing if thoughtfully amended and applied. The SC expressed ‘deepest dismay at the role of the Union of India’, which took shelter behind policing and law and order being state subjects to explain that it had only a limited role in approving the numbers for paying ‘honorarium’,
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without issuing directions on terms of recruitment, mode of training and manner of deployment. The SC also reminded the Centre of its constitutional responsibilities and ‘duty’ under Article 355 of protecting every State against ‘external aggression and internal disturbance’, as also ‘to ensure that the government of every state is carried on in accordance with the provisions of the Constitution’. Obviously, the apex court considered the creation of the SJ, the scale at which it was organised and the operational responsibilities assigned to it to be dereliction of the Indian state’s constitutional responsibility in the field of internal security, but also in violating fundamental rights and human dignity of the citizens involved in this case. Obviously, it opens a new ground for discussing and perceiving public security in India’s federal framework. Both the State’s responsibilities and the Union’s obligation have come under sharp focus not only in this case, but also in other cases such as riots (2002 Gujarat riots in particular), terrorism (Mumbai attack and blasts in particular) and in the recent case of two Indian Police Officers of the Gujarat cadre stepping out against the Narendra Modi government nine years after the riots and Union Home Minister P Chidambaram muddying the scene with his offer for help to them. The use of the Union Government’s powers under Articles 256, 355 and 365 has been analysed and discussed at great length in the report of the second Centre State Commission Report under Justice MM Punchhi. Of particular relevance in this context is the report of the Task Force 5 of the Commission. It comes out clearly that whereas the Union Government has the constitutional obligation to protect the states and can issue directives whenever there is any contravention of norms under any of these Articles, it can issue directions to the State(s) concerned. However, so far, despite controversies of interference by the Centre in States ruled by other political parties, only advisories have been issued, even on serious matters. The case of the two Gujarat IPS officers beckons a debate on the AllIndia Service Rules and responsibilities and obligations of the Union and State governments. (The author is Honorary Director, Centre for Public Affairs, Noida ) September 2011
geopolitics
DIPLOMACY
BRIDGING THE TRUST DEFICIT
INDIA AND ARMS-TRADE TREATY
Courtesy: www.flickr.com
Courtesy: nextstepproductions.org
India has a tremendous responsibility with the people of Bangladesh to take its relationship to the next level.
STRUGGLE FOR POWER IN INDIA'S NEIGHBOURHOOD
DIPLOMATIC POUCH ¨¨
g Changing equation N
OW THAT they have a new boss in Ranjan Mathai, Foreign Service officers are closely watching how the Foreign Secretary is coping with all-powerful Raghavendra Shastry, “advisor” to the External Affairs Minister SM Krishna. It is an open secret in the South Block that previous Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao had an excellent working relationship with Shastry, thanks to her Karnataka connection. Her husband Sudhakar Rao, a Karnataka cadre IAS officer, knew both Shastry and Krishna well and had very good personal equations with them. Besides, with Shastry on her side, a post-retirement appointment was a foregone conclusion. And Shastry did not disappoint her on this count — she is now Ambassador of the country in the world’s most powerful capital — Washington DC. But to be fair, she has had a glittering career in the IFS and this is the icing on the cake. But the case of Mathai is little different. Those who know him say that the new Foreign Secretary is no nonsense man. He is low profile but a very meticulous worker. He is much more democratic in his ways, in the sense that he listens to all his colleagues while taking a decision. This being his nature, Shastry may not find it easy to just dictate things to Mathai. If the latter decides to go into merits or demerits of every dictate of Shastry and discusses them with his colleagues, who apparently have been highly resentful of Shatsri’s dominance, we may witness interesting fallouts in South Block in the days ahead. We will keep you posted.
Ranjan Mathai
INDIA HOUSE, LONDON
Photo:kanchangupta.blogspot.com
I
T HAS been more than a month since Nalin Surie retired as the Indian High Commissioner to the United Kingdom, incidentally on the same day when his batch mates Nirupama Rao and Meera Shankar retired from their respective extended terms. But still there is no clarity as to who is going to be the boss at one of London’s most famous addresses — India House. While Rakesh Sood is out of the race after his appointment as a successor to Ranjan Mathai at Paris, it was rumoured that Indian High Commissioner at
Canberra Sujatha Singh was the most likely choice. But now, the situation seems to be little confusing. The Manmohan Singh government has been under pressure from some highly influential quarters to send a political appointee. The latest one has heard is that India’s present envoy at Thimphu — ever-affable Pawan Verma — is also in the race. Verma, incidentally, has good experience of London. He was a successful director of the Nehru Centre, the cultural wing of the High Commission that aims at fostering a continuous, varied and meaningful dialogue between India and Britain.
Pawan Verma
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Sujatha Singh
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September 2011
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Soothing Dhaka
Looking for a job
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F
ORMER INDIAN Ambassador Meera Shankar’s post-retirement assignment has been the topic of intense speculation in the corridors of power in Delhi. Well connected within the current political dispensation and with support from Pulok Chatterjee, incoming Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister, Meera could well be one of the key advisors to the government on foreign policy matters. However, it is not clear what exact position she would occupy and in which Department. Whispers are that she may be the next Director General of the Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), the government’s think-tank on the strategic matters. But here, Defence Minister AK Antony will hold the key as the IDSA is funded by the Ministry of Defence. Meera Shankar
New spokesperson
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HO IS going to be new spokesman of the Ministry of External Affairs, with the incumbent Vishnu Prakash all set to go to Seoul as India’s ambassador? The office of the Official Spokesperson and Joint Secretary (External Publicity) is the interface of the Ministry of External Affairs with the outside world. This has always been a crucial and prized posting for any Foreign Service officer. In fact, many a spokesperson, if past is any indication, rise to become Foreign Secretary later — SK Singh, JN Dixit, Salman Haider and Nirupama Rao being some big examples. The post assumes all the more significance at a time when the country does not have an articulate Foreign Minister and a Foreign Secretary who are not exactly fond of publicity. But then invariably the MEA spokesman has been one who has the utmost confidence of the Foreign Secretary. In fact, he or she is going to be core member of Mathai’s team. Who is going to be the lucky one? The joint secretaries in the ministry are keeping their fingers crossed. www.geopolitics.in
DIPLOMATIC POUCH
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F ALL goes well and the brewing Anna storm is put under control, the Prime Minister will be undertaking a high-profile visit to Bangladesh. In fact, the MEA mandarins are working very hard for making the visit a success. But there is a problem. The officials know that the success depends a lot on diluting the impact of Manmohan Singh’s not so diplomatic comment on Bangladesh in his recent interactions with a select group of Indian editors. “We must reckon that at least 25 per cent of the population of Bangladesh swears by the Jamiat-e-Islami and they are very anti-Indian, and they are in the clutches, many times, of the ISI. So, a political landscape in Bangladesh can change at any time. We do not know what these terrorist elements, who have a hold on the Jamiat-e-Islami elements in Bangladesh, can be up to”, Singh had said. And this had invited harsh reactions from many quarters in Bangladesh. In order to soothe Dhaka, the officials are listing concessionary measures that the Prime Minister could offer to Bangladesh during his trip. And these could include extending the line of credit beyond one billion dollars and more concessions on the front sharing river resources. But what the officials are finding little hard is to redress the Bangladesh complaints that the trade gap has kept on soaring in favour of India. Dhaka says that the best way to reduce the trade deficit with Bangladesh is by allowing garments from that country easy access into India. And this is proving to be a ticklish matter. Indian garment industry is already finding stiff competitions from Pakistan, Bangladesh and China in European markets. So allowing foreign garments in domestic market will further complicate things. In fact, Singh is already under attack for ordering officials to withdraw India’s official opposition at the World Trade Organisation to a special concessional trade package offered by the European Union to Pakistan, on the ground that the country needed to compensate its losses caused by the floods. Thus, similar concessions to Bangladesh on textiles will show Singh appeasing the neighbours too much at the cost of national interests. Manmohan Singh September 2011
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GEOPOLITICS
VIEWPOINT
INTO THE FRAY: SUICIDE NATION?
Once again Israel is being lured into disaster by the “pied-pipers of Oslo,” this time playing a new tune, argues MARTIN SHERMAN
T
here is something profoundly perverse in the conduct of the Jewish people as a national collective.
is an almost unfathomable disconnect between its capacities for techno / tactical brilliance and for staggering strategic imbecility.
STRATEGIC IMBECILITY The rebirth of Jewish nationhood and the annals of Zionist endeavour are undoubtedly one of the most stirring chapters of modern history. It is an enterprise that has achieved remarkable feats against impossible Indeed, a deeply troubling odds. Indeed, Zionism has arguably pattern is emerging: Whenbeen the most successful of national ever dramatic successes, freedom movements in the last century. entailing long-range reconIt has attained a combination of political structive strategic potential independence, economic prosperity are secured, their fruits are and individual liberties for its people frittered away for short-term unmatched in any other country born of or at best intermediatethe dissolution of the European empires. range-benefits. Whether Beyond its borders, Israel has made military or economic sucamazing contributions to humanity — in cesses seem to give rise medicine, agriculture, computing, comto illogical forces — munications... Some of these more self-induced and selfrecent accomplishments have been ably destructive — to willchronicled by books such as the bestfully forgo them. selling Start-up Nation: The Story of Israel’s Economic Miracle. PEACE AT WHAT COST: Israeli Yet something is clearly rot- society is facing a period of an ten in the State of Israel. There intense inner conflict
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STRATEGIC VALUE OF... PAPER Thus, the sweeping strategic advantages, won in victories of the Six Day War, have been foolishly squandered. The Sinai Peninsula with its strategic depth, mineral wealth and economic potential is now deteriorating into a lawless “no-go” region, rapidly falling under the control of the most ruthless extremists on the face of the globe. In the wake of the “Tahrir tsunami,” Israel is facing an emerging loselose strategic predicament, which will soon force it to decide between: ¾ Allowing Sinai to degenerate into an Afghanistan-like haven for al-Qaeda and other jihadi organisations, ¾ Allowing a Muslim Bro t h e r h o o d - c o n trolled Egypt to remilitarise the area in order to reestablish law and order, September 2011
g VIEWPOINT ¾ Reasserting Israeli control of Sinai, effectively repudiating the peace agreement. Admittedly, the three decades of Egyptian prickly non-belligerence provided Israel with significant benefits — in return for considerable strategic sacrifices. But from here on in, the challenges will be daunting to say the least. All options are gravely menacing...
Israel” protests. Once again the perverse pathology seems to be kicking in. Just when the economy is demonstrating remarkable resilience, winning warm international praise and outperforming much of the industrial world, we are witnessing an almost incomprehensible self-engendered “declaration of economic war against Israeli prosperity,” as Jerusalem Post Senior Contributing Editor Caroline B Glick deftly put it.
IRRATIONALITY OVER REASON In a stunning triumph of irrationality over reason, Israel six years ago surrendered all for nothing, erasing 30 years of Zionist endeavour in Gaza in a fortnight. With dizzying speed all ominous warnings of dangers came true; all promises of benefits proved false. But worse of all, it conveyed an unmistakable strategic message to the Arabs: With the Jews, no concessions are necessary! If confronted with adequate resolve and violence, they will capitulate unconditionally. In a stroke, Ariel Sharon’s mendacious promise: “The fate of Netzarim will be the fate of Tel Aviv” was inverted. Now the Arabs had every reason to believe: “The fate Tel Aviv will be the fate of Netzarim.” With demands for surrendering the Golan temporarily on hold due to the butchery of Bashar Assad, efforts are now focused on how to divest Israel of the remaining vestige of its 1967 military gains — the strategic highlands between the Jordan Valley and the coastal megalopolis. Despite the benefit of hindsight, the nation is being led into another episode of strategic insanity: The establishment of an adversarial Arab entity on the territories that overlook the country’s major population centers, control its only real international airport, border the length of the trans-Israel highway and command much of the county’s infrastructure. With all of these in range of weaponry already used against Israel from territories relinquished to the Palestinians, only the brain-dead or the blatantly biased could fail to recognise the strategic dementia of such a move. Reassuring promises of demilitarization are either infantile or insincere. Even with the armament currently available to the Palestinians, allegedly “renegade” elements could “bring Sderot to Tel Aviv,” making social and economic routine in the country impossible to sustain.
THE SINAI PENINSULA IS RAPIDLY FALLING UNDER THE CONTROL OF RUTHLESS EXTREMISTS
CLAMOUR FOR ECONOMIC HARA-KIRI This brings us to the present “middle www.geopolitics.in
Suddenly, in a nation where all the macro-economic data reflect a flourishing economy in the midst of a global economic crisis, and both statistical and anecdotal evidence indicate that much of the general populace are benefiting, an incongruous wave of discontent seems to be engulfing the public. After all, pollafter-poll, both foreign and local shows extremely high levels of satisfaction with life in Israel, well above that in most industrial countries. Out of a population of 7.7 million, millions of Israelis travel abroad regularly, spending billions of dollars on overseas trips. A cursory stroll through urban Israel reveals that restaurants are full, cafes are crowded, pubs are jampacked, the recreation industry appears to be booming, with beaches teeming in summer, ski slopes crammed in winter, rural byways swarming with off-road cyclists on the weekends. Against this backdrop of popular plenty — the eruption of middle-class wrath seems oddly misplaced. After all, surely not all these diners, latte drinkers, latenight revelers, surfers, skiers, bikers, vacationers can be parasitic ultra-Orthodox, privileged settlers, or plutocratic tycoons. To be sure, injustices and distortions abound — and have done so for years. So why now, on the cusp of economic success, this clamour for economic hara-kiri. Admittedly, plausible claims can be made for restructuring the tax system, making markets more competitive, streamlining bureaucracy, raising salaries
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for specific professions — topics the government appears to be responsibly addressing. But little of these are reflected in the emerging demands of protesters. These are no more than a motley mélange of politically correct mantras, betraying the underlying political bias of the organisers: meaningless generalities expressing goodwill to mankind, haredim, settlers and tycoons excluded; and a few actionable proposals that would put evermore citizens at the mercy of an evermore bloated bureaucracy. APPEASEMENT TURNS ENTITLEMENT So how are we to account for the widespread manifestation of this lemming-like psychosis? The reason is not hard to find. The same mendacious, manipulative media, with its ideological compliant and complicit cliques that comprise the “bonton” social elites are once again leading the people astray. Whipping up emotions by exploiting primal traits of avarice and envy, the flimsily disguised objective is to destabilise the government coalition and delegitimise its electoral base. It is difficult of overstate the potential danger of initiative. Having in the past convinced a gullible public that appeasement is a workable security doctrine, they now seem bent on persuading it that entitlement is a practical economic one. Unchastened at having made Israel virtually indefensible militarily, they appear to have no compunction in trying to make it unsustainable economically. The very same fraudulent “guild” that deceived the country with the false promise of a “New Middle East” Eldorado, is now egging it on to pursue an equally deceptive dream of a “New Social Order” Nirvana. The very same “piedpipers of Oslo” who seduced a misinformed nation into disaster with the lure of “Peace Now,” are now trying to coax it into another debacle — this time with a new tune, “Social Justice”. They must be exposed, confronted and discredited. The stakes are high, the cost of failure incalculable. For, with all its defects, Israel is still in many ways an inspiring fulfilment of Theodor Herzl’s famous dictum: “If you will it, it is no dream.” But we dare not lose sight of the fact the converse can also be true: If you will it not, it is indeed a dream. (The author is a leading Israeli academician. A longer version of this viewpoint first appeared in The Jerusalem Post) September 2011
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GEOPOLITICS
DIPLOMACY
BEYOND BILATERALISM
A healthy relationship between India and Bangladesh will facilitate the economic development of the whole of South Asia and a substantial part of Southeast Asia, argues BHASKAR ROY
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RIME MINISTER Manmohan Singh’s scheduled visit to Dhaka this month is a historic opportunity to cement ties between the two neighbours. The visit has been long in the making. It could have taken place earlier but for bureaucratic delays mainly on the Indian side, dismaying Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. On the Bangladesh side, everything has not been smooth either. While not taking away any credit from Sheikh Hasina and her cabinet, there were certain road blocks from the Bangladesh bureaucracy. Two issues proved to be particularly difficult. One was the transit corridor for India to its northeast region; whether giving India this land corridor would endanger Bangladesh security and sovereignty; it would benefit India or Bangladesh; what Dhaka’s advantage would be; on what basis would transit fees be calculated; and a host of other things. The other issue was the Teesta river water flow and India’s plan to build a dam on the river. It is to be realised that no country is so divided on what its relations with India should be. Perhaps, the genesis of the problem goes back to the Partition of India in 1947, the conception of the two-nation theory and Pakistan’s determination to take over Jammu and Kashmir or at least Kashmir. That was also the beginning of Pakistan’s
NOT SUCH TRANQUIL NEIGHBOURS: Several outstanding disputes between India and Bangladesh need to be worked out
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g DIPLOMACY nascent army sending non-state actors, the Razakars, to loot, kill and rape Kashmiris. The Razakar tactics gradually developed Islamic terrorists, militants, jihadis including enlistment of foreign fighters to fight in Kashmir. Finally, the terrorist attacks spread to the rest of the India under state/military directions. The liberation of Bangladesh, or the breakup of Pakistan, is seen as the work of India. In Pakistan’s calculation, the Bengalis themselves could not have broken away from Pakistan’s occupation army without India. The post-1971 political scenario in Bangladesh is in parts the extension of Pakistan’s policy towards India. That raises the question as to what percentage of Bangladeshis in 1971 placed themselves on the side of liberation. The erstwhile Muslim League, now the Jamaat-e-Islami, was openly with Pakistan with its Al Badr, Al Shams and Razakars wings only killing, looting and raping Bengalis on behalf of the Pakistani army. They were later banned and other punitive action was initiated against them. Subsequent developments, especially the assassination of Sheikh Mujib and his family and following developments, raised serious questions, which remain relevant even today. These questions include, among others, the role of Awami
League leaders like Taheruddin Thakur in Mujib’s assassination, who led the group of young officers to launch the Mujib family massacre; General Ziaur Rehman’s machinations including judicial killing of Colonel Abu Taher and a significant number of air force and army officers; Zia’s rehabilitation of the Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) politically; his and his party Bangladesh National Party’s (BNP), continuous efforts to project him as the real leader of the liberation war and not Sheikh Mujib (Zia was only a sector commander); and since then, gradual distortion of Bangladesh’s history, particularly the history of the liberation war and the neighbourhood that deftly suggested that India was the real enemy. In the international fora, Indian
INDIA APPRECIATES BANGLADESH'S EFFORTS TO END TERRORISTS FROM OPERATING FROM ITS SOIL
BONE OF CONTENTION: The Farakka barrage has been a thorny issue between the two neighbours
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diplomats found that Bangladesh delegates were opposing India even more than Pakistani delegates did! Most important question; did many of the army officers who fought in the 1971 war have no option but to toe anti-India lines? Similar is the question with some of the Awami League leaders and other politicians and a group of so-called freedom fighters. Take the case of Major-General MA Matin. A decorated freedom fighter, he is now a most virulent anti-India and communal ideologue. This is only one example. The biggest success of the pro-Pakistan and anti-India power wielders was the indoctrination of a large section of the post-1971 generation who had little or no idea of the liberation war. The education curriculum tried to create a generation of mutants who truly believed that India was the main enemy responsible for all their country’s woes, and Pakistan and China were their friends and benefactors. Nowhere did the textbooks mention that Pakistan and China accorded diplomatic recognition to Bangladesh after the assassination of Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. India must understand that this section in Bangladesh is here to stay because this is their only political platform. The BNPJEI four-party alliance government (20012006) opened Bangladesh’s territory to Pakistan’s ISI to launch terrorist operations against India, allowed the Indian insurgents safe haven in Bangladesh, and facilitated them with passports, business opportunities and procurement of huge quantities of arms to fight against the Indian state. Top BNP and JeI ministers and leaders were involved in these activities, and they are now about to face retribution in the courts of the country, all according to law and under full public scrutiny. Keeping all these negativities in mind, India is looking towards a much brighter and bigger side of the relationship. Too many problems had accumulated between the two countries and the stage is set for a catharsis. Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee has remained a strong bridge between India and Bangladesh and set the platform. The recent visits of Foreign Minister SM Krishna and Home Minister P Chidambaram to Dhaka clearly indicated that India was sincere for a firm relationship with Bangladesh. Similarly, the one-day visit of Congress President Sonia Gandhi to Bangladesh brought about a new atmosphere between the two countries. She received Bangladesh’s September 2011
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GRACIOUS VISITOR: A number of issues were discussed during the visit of Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to India last year
highest award for her late mother-in-law, Ms Indira Gandhi, in recognition to the latter’s contribution to the liberation of Bangladesh. Most Bangladeshi media hailed Indira Gandhi, recalled her snubbing of the then US President Richard Nixon on the liberation war, when the Machiavellian US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger put all his diplomacy at stake to prevent the birth of Bangladesh. He even travelled to China and pleaded with Mao Zedong to intervene militarily, but Mao refused wisely because his attention was on the Soviet Union, Japan and the internal problems in his country. Very few recall, or know, that the US considered using a nuclear weapon against India. That was the risk Indira Gandhi took for Bangladesh. Be that as it may, the point has been reached when all major issues with Bangladesh are about to be resolved during Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s visit: the 1974 Indira-Mujib accord on the boundary with some minor adjustment; the adverse possessed enclaves issue with special emphasis on Bangladesh’s Dahogram and Angorporta enclaves; the transit corridor; the power sale from India and a host of other issues. The land corridor has a huge future. This would lead to Nepal and Bhutan getting clear transit of goods access to Bangladesh and Bangladesh’s sea ports. www.geopolitics.in
INDIA HAS A RESPONSIBILITY TO TAKE THE RELATIONSHIP WITH BANGLADESH TO THE NEXT LEVEL This can be extended in the western end to Pakistan if Islamabad agrees. On the eastern end, it can extend to Myanmar and then to Thailand and other parts of South East Asia. This can eventually evolve into a huge trade, economic and technical co-operation region which Sri Lanka can eventually join to use the Chittagong port for a cheaper land route to South East Asia. If all this happens, the endresult will be the economic development for a whole sub-region without making it another political group. Bilaterally, India greatly appreciates Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s concentrated efforts to eradicate terrorism from the soil of Bangladesh. She has been steadfast on her promise and its effect on the subcontinent has been telling. But Sheikh Hasina is also facing a huge challenge.
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Terrorist groups like the Hizb-ul-Tehrir, Pakistan-backed Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI), the indigenous Jamatul Mujahidin Bangladesh (JMB), which erstwhile Prime Minister Khaleda Zia had described as a figment of imagination of journalists, among others still exist, though weakened. But how do they exist and how are they financed? They might raise funds from local supporters but more importantly they still get funds from abroad, including some Bangladeshi workers in the Gulf. In the current milieu, one has to live with it but not let them grow. Earlier, they grew with clandestine state support. India has a tremendous responsibility to take this relationship to the next level with the people of Bangladesh. That has not been happening at the desired level. Commitments are made but not fulfilled in time. The adoption and reconstruction of a village destroyed by 2008 Sidr cyclone has shown slow. Compare this to the promise of Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi to build cyclone shelters in Urir Char and Chittagong. He personally ensured the shelters were built in time, and inaugurated them. The killing of Bangladeshi cattle smugglers by the Indian Border Security Force (BSF) is another sensitive issue. Of course, they are not cattle traders as projected by the Bangladeshi media. But there is no cattle trade between the two countries either. Nonetheless they are poor people, and not terrorists. A lot of transactions across the borders are illegal and neither the BSF nor the Border Guards Bangladesh (BGB) are epitomes of virtue. But killings have to be stopped forthwith from the Indian side. People’s sentiments are very important because detractors of the bilateral relations can use them to raise a storm. In the past, villagers in Bangladesh were told by vested interests that the drying up of Karnafuli River in Chittagong in summer was due to India stopping water at Farraka. No relations between neighbouring countries can be totally smooth. Even the US has problems with Mexico and Canada. But the larger relationship is very important and this, as said earlier, could be a harbinger of economic development for more than just India and Bangladesh. Here, India being a much larger country, must deal with Bangladesh as a special case. (The author, a retired senior official, is a leading authority on China and Bangladesh) September 2011
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MEETING THE CHINESE
CHALLENGE
If India fails to recast its neighbourhood policy, it will not be able to cope with China’s formidable military, economic and political penetration in South Asia, warns SD MUNI
I
NDIA SEEMS to be tightening its belt to meet the direct military challenge posed by China on its disputed borders. China is known to have developed massive and multi-faceted infrastructure on the border and is capable of mobilising nearly 500,000 combat troops in a period of one month or less. To counter this, India has now prepared itself to raise new Army formations in West Bengal, Sikkim, Eastern Ladakh and Uttarakhand. It is also planning to deploy two new divisions of mountain strike corps in Nagaland and Assam. Former army chief and the Governor of Arunachal Pradesh Gen JJ Singh had indicated a couple of years back the need and urgency of raising these new formations. However, is India equally alert to meet the indirect and somewhat subtle Chinese challenge beyond its borders in the immediate neighbourhood? China has long standing military cooperation with Pakistan; it is not only supplying and jointproducing weapons but also helping it in building nuclear deterrent for its “allweather friend”. To match the Indo-US civil nuclear cooperation, China extended nuclear energy cooperation with Pakistan. It had been supplying arms and providing training to the Bangladesh army for over three decades now. Since Sri Lanka’s fight to the finish launched against the Tamil Tigers in 2008, China has also emerged as a major military supplier to that country. www.geopolitics.in
This status continues even after the elimination of the Tamil Tigers. The dependence of the Myanmar military on China is rather extensive. China also supplied arms to the Nepal army when the King was isolated from India and the rest of the world
during 2005-06, and was fighting not only the Maoist insurgents but also suppressing the struggle for democracy by the Nepalese people at large. Earlier, China had only occasionally supplied non-lethal goods and equipments to the Nepal Army.
THE DRAGON’S CHALLENGE: India has to be proactive in dealing with the Chinese intrusions in its backyard
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g DIPLOMACY Economically, China has stepped up its traditional cooperation with South Asian countries. China’s support for developing ostensibly commercial, but potentially strategic facilities such as the ports in Pakistan (Gwadar), Sri Lanka (Humbantota), Bangladesh (Chittagong) and Myanmar (Sittwe), have been widely discussed in strategic commentaries and analyses. It has now also entered into other critical sectors of economic activity that have strategic imperatives. China’s cooperation in helping Sri Lanka reconstruct its sensitive war-torn northeastern region; in building hydropower capacities and exploring mineral wealth in Pakistan-ccupied-Kashmir; in promising to extend the Tibet railway line to Nepal and helping it develop Lumbini in the Terai as a religious pilgrimage centre at the phenomenal cost of $3billion are noteworthy in this respect. All these projects impinge on India’s strategic sensitivities. China’s military and economic spread has also been matched by its careful cultivation of political constituencies in these countries. While in Pakistan, China enjoys widespread political support, including that of its powerful army, it has nursed goodwill and confidence with the Rajapaksa regime in Sri Lanka, and the left forces, and radical political groups in the
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Terai region in Nepal. China has also established strong communication at various levels with the Awami League in Bangladesh. China has been quick to adapt smoothly to the political transformations in South Asian countries and has been suave in escaping domestic political fault lines while nursing its preferred constituencies. China has been prompt in reaching out to such South Asian political forces that get displeased or alienated from India. There is a saying that the ‘art of defence is to attack’. China’s assertiveness and moves to expand and consolidate its strategic presence in South Asia is driven, in a very significant way, by defensive instincts, to protect and cushion its felt vulnerabilities. Take for instance, China’s involvement in developing ports in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Myanmar and Bangladesh. Recall 1996 missile standoff between the US and China in the Taiwan Strait when the US had threatened to put a naval blockade around China by choking entry points in the South China sea like the Malacca Strait. This was militarily possible then and is so even today, though to a lesser extent in view of China’s development of submarine capabilities. As an alternative to its burgeoning sea-borne trade, China has developed these ports in the neighbouring countries and linked them with road and water ways (in Myanmar, through Irrawaddy River). These ports will also provide much-needed rest and recreation access to China’s expanding PLA-Navy in Indian Ocean. Chinese authorities are also uneasy and insecure about the persisting turbulence in Tibet and Xinjiang where huge investments in modernisation and economic development do not seem to have yielded desired political results. The strong component of seeking a demographic solution (shifting the majority Han population to these areas) to the problem of ethnic discrimination has fuelled the identity struggles rather than dowsing them. Blasts and attacks on official establishments in Xinjiang are a clear testimony to the continuing resistance. Extensive protests in Tibet that erupted in 2008 on the eve of Beijing Olympics have not died out either, as is evident in the self-immolation by Tibetan monks in August 2011. The Dalai Lama’s clever political move to appoint a separate Prime Minister of the Tibetan affairs (in exile in India) may frustrate the Chinese hopes that the Tibet issue will be diffused after demise of the aging Dalai Lama. This
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separation of political and spiritual affairs of Tibet has also enabled the Dalai Lama to be received by the Heads of States in the US and France, much against the protests and resentment of the Chinese authorities. In the context of the turbulence in Xinjiang and Tibet, countries like Pakistan and Nepal are critical nodal points of defence for China. Beijing periodically pressures Pakistan to ensure that its Jihadi warriors are strongly contained for their activities in Xinjiang. China also leans heavily on Nepal to make sure that the Tibetan refugees and dissenters are restrained from transiting through its territory to and from India. No Chinese security manager in Tibet can forget the Khampas who were trained by the US in Nepali territory for attacks in Tibet on the Chinese establishments until 1974. India’s role is of course very significant in relation to Tibet but that is what China is always worried about; lest India and the US decide to exploit the legal lacuna in Chinese claims of legitimacy of its occupation of Tibet in the event of any future eruption of resistance. The two critical documents of the Shimla Convention of 1914-16 and the 17-Point Agreement on the Peaceful Liberation of Tibet of 1951 (imposed by China on Tibet) may not uphold this legitimacy when put under close legal scrutiny. The Dalai Lama and his government in exile have upheld India’s claims on the disputed borders with China. China’s military and economic moves in South Asia, while driven in part by its sense of internal vulnerabilities, have been facilitated by its impressive growth. This growth has provided deep pockets to the Chinese diplomacy and enabled it to promptly and generously respond to the economic needs and aspirations of India’s smaller neighbours. The skills developed by China in carrying out infrastructure projects have impressed everyone in South Asia. China’s status as SAARC observer has also helped it engage the South Asian countries more closely than earlier. This engagement is facilitating China’s access to markets and natural resources in South Asia, needed for China’s growing economy. In some of the South Asian countries such as Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, China has proposed to transfer selected manufacturing units. This will help China’s investors and its crowded manufacturing sector while enabling the South Asian countries to reduce their trade deficit with China through re-export. How can India meet this subtle and September 2011
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STRATEGIC TOEHOLD: India will have to quickly find a response to the Chinese ‘String of Pearls’ strategy
indirect challenge of China’s growing strategic clout in its immediate neighbourhood? Certainly not by persisting on its traditional approach that lacks dynamism and creative initiatives. In no insignificant manner, the lapses in India’s policies are being gainfully exploited by China in pursuance of its South Asian objectives. China’s present assertiveness in Nepal would not have been so pronounced if India had not allowed the fund of goodwill generated in its favour at the time of Monarchy’s collapse in 2006-2007, to erode so fast and so extensively that by 2009-10 India and its policies came to be most criticised in Nepal. India during 2005-06 had actively supported the mainstreaming of the Maoists but this objective was not carried to its logical conclusion once the Maoists emerged as the dominant popular force after the elections of 2008. In case of Sri Lanka, by giving Rajapaksa regime a free hand in militarily eliminating the Tamil Tigers with the help drawn from China and other countries, India failed to preserve its Tamil support base without securing trust and cooperation of the Sinhala nationalists. The contention here is not that Tamil Tigers must have been protected but that in their elimination, India must have extended full support to Colombo including with the supply of weapons, lethal or non-lethal, but only on the condition that the Rajapaksa regime devolved powers to the Tamils. In Bangladesh, for a long time, India has been oscillating between its two principal contending political forces; the Awami League and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party. In the process it failed in winning the full confidence and trust of the either. www.geopolitics.in
In Myanmar, India did make the pragmatic switch from supporting the democratic forces to adjusting with the military regime, but it has not been able to dent the dominant Chinese presence there. South Asia is changing. Its people have become more aware, more aspiring and more identity conscious. India has to relate itself to these aspirations while respecting their identities. India cannot afford to take a position of political neutrality and indifference in these countries as China can. China, for instance was supplying arms to the Nepal King in his fight against the Maoists and the democratic struggle. But once the King was gone, it took no time in cultivating the Maoists as also other political forces that were hitherto pitted against the Monarchy. India is much too deeply entangled with the history, polity and society in its neighbouring countries. Even if it wants to remain distanced from the dynamics of internal politics, it may not be allowed to do so. Therefore, India has to carve out a careful approach of working in these countries with the popular and representative forces, while steering clear of their petty power rivalries. It cannot afford to be seen as just a power-broker in the very fluid and uncertain politics in these countries. India must also work with such nationalist forces that are secular and creative but not fundamentalist or extremist, either ethnically or ideologically. A sectarian or an authoritarian state, whether ethnically driven or ideologically motivated, would not serve India’s genuine and long-term interests in the immediate neighbourhood. For accommodating genuine nationalist forces in the neighbourhood, India must
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be prepared to define the structure of its existing relations encompassed in various treaties and agreements without sacrificing its basic and vital interests. India also has to revamp its diplomacy by as much use of economic muscle as possible. India is already offering its South Asian neighbours a share in India’s growth and prosperity. It has to develop matching capabilities to deliver world-class infrastructural projects in stipulated periods. The second-generation economic reforms in India are still waiting to be speeded up. Indian bureaucratic and political order has to rid itself of the procedural delays and irritations, the curse of corruption and inefficiency, and the lack of strategic planning with regard to such projects. Many a time federal considerations and pressures of the stake- holders impinge on many neighbourhood-related policy decisions and their implementation. These are the inevitable constraints of a huge and diverse functioning democracy, but these constraints have to be moderated and minimised in the interest of a strategically focussed neighbourhood approach. India also has to bring into operation a vigorous application of soft power that emanates from its rich cultural and emotional bonds with the neighbours and where China has no scope to match India. If India fails to recast, sooner than later, its neighbourhood policy, it will not be able to cope with China’s formidable military, economic and political presence in the sensitive region beyond its borders. (The author is Visiting Research Professor, Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore) September 2011
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ARMS TRADE TREATY AND INDIA Even as the United Nations progresses slowly and steadily towards concluding the Arms Trade Treaty to regulate global arms trade, India appears directionless on how to react to the development, says RAJIV NAYAN
F
or a long time, a section of the international community has campaigned for an Arms Trade Treaty (ATT). The treaty is supposed to be legally binding for regulating the global arms trade. The United Nations (UN) through a 2010 resolution acknowledged: “The absence of commonly agreed international standards for the transfer of conventional arms that address, inter alia, the problems relating to the unregulated trade of conventional arms and their diversion to the illicit mar-
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ket is a contributory factor to armed conflict, the displacement of people, organised crime and terrorism, thereby undermining peace, reconciliation, safety, security, stability and sustainable social and economic development.…” However, the section, which has been active for an ATT, is not homogenous. Different drivers are in operation. Be that as it may, efforts of ATT supporters succeeded somewhat in 2006 when the UN General Assembly asked the UN member states to submit their country’s positions
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on formulating an ATT. More than 100 countries submitted their positions to the UN. In 2007, the UN Secretariat published the report compiling all their national positions. In 2008, a report prepared by governmental experts came out. In 2009, an open-ended working group was set up. This working group was given a mandate to hold six sessions. The first two meetings were held and now are considered two sessions. The remaining sessions were mandated as sessions of the Preparatory Committee (PrepCom) for the Conference September 2011
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on ATT. This Conference is to be held in 2012 in order to finalise the treaty. From July 11 to July 15, 2011, the third PrepCom met on the UN premises in New York. This was a follow-up of the earlier two PrepComs. The first PrepCom was held from July 12 to July 23, 2010, and the second from February 28 to March 4, 2011. The last will be held in February 2012. The general agenda of all the PrepComs is giving ‘recommendations on the elements that would be needed to attain an effective and balanced legally-binding instrument on the highest possible common international standards for the transfer of conventional arms.’ The focus of the July 2011 PrepCom was on issues of implementation for the proposed ATT. In the previous two PrepComs, general principles, goals, objectives, criteria and scope of the ATT were considered. Although when the UN General Assembly gave the mandate for an ATT, it had not explicitly mentioned that the consensus would be the rule or the principle. Yet the process of negotiations is leading towards the consensus-building approach. It has both perceived advantages like reassuring to the participating states, and perceived disadvantages like the watering down of the treaty by the use of veto on many provisions. The perception in the international civil society is that ultimately a very weak ATT would emerge out in 2012 because of the gradual embracing of the principle of consensus. DRAFT CHAIRMAN’S PROPOSALS The general understanding in the third PrepCom was that the national governments would be responsible for implementing the treaty. Before the third PrepCom, the Chairman of the committee had circulated a draft paper for implementation of the treaty in which he recognised the responsibility of the member countries to implement the treaty by taking ‘necessary legislative and administrative measures’. It reminded the countries to adjust their existing national systems consisting of laws and regulations to the new treaty. Echoing the various resolutions on ATT and arms transfers, the Chairman’s draft proposal underlined the inherent right of www.geopolitics.in
the countries of individual or collective selfdefence in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter. However, it asked the member countries to avoid discrimination, subjectivity and the possibility of political abuse. The Chairman’s proposal had provisions for national authority and systems that should be transparent, predictable and effective in licensing. The draft proposal had other export controls components such as drawing a national control list, transit and transshipment controls, and verification and validation of authorisation.
INDIA WANTS INCLUSION OF THE PHRASE ‘NON-STATE ACTORS’ IN THE ARMS TRADE TREATY The chairman’s draft laid down: “All authorisations for an export of conventional arms in accordance with the treaty must be detailed on a form and issued prior to the export. Details of the authorisation shall accompany the arms shipment and be made available to transit and transshipment states upon request.” However, the Chairman preferred voluntarism to the format, content and conditions of the authorisation. The draft proposal did ask a provision for taking required national measures to control or stop diversion of supplied arms to ‘the illicit market or unintended user’. The draft proposals had import and transit controls as well. As for import controls, the draft proposal had measures such as enduser certification, record keeping and the third-party control. By the third-party control the proposal meant measures to prohibit diversion to ‘the illicit market or unintended user’. As for transit controls, the Chairman draft continued to rely on
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record keeping by the transit countries, the right of the transit state to inspect or seize shipments which are transferred violating the ATT and to prohibit diversion to ‘the illicit market or unintended user’. Thus, the long-standing concern regarding illegal and illicit transfers found special place in the Chairman’s draft proposal on implementation. The Chairman’s draft also proposed an institutional framework for implementation of the treaty. The member countries, according to the proposal, were asked to establish a national contact point. This national contact point would work with the Implementation Support Unit (ISU) of the treaty. The ISU was proposed to be set up later to serve as the repository for annual reports of the member countries as well as reports on disputes on transfer denials, to support assembly of state parties and member countries, to ‘act as a clearinghouses for offers and requests for assistance’, to coordinate with other international and regional organisations, to promote outreach to increase awareness of the objectives of the ATT and to take up other important responsibilities arising from time-to-time. The proposal also had a provision for details for transfers. The Chairman’s draft wanted the future ATT to have a ‘description of arms’, and ‘the proposed recipient state and end-user.’ However, it wanted states parties to keep denial notification confidential and not to use for commercial advantage. The draft proposed the future ATT to have an arrangement for information exchange, record-keeping, reporting and transparency. The draft proposal also had other provisions for the ATT. For the enforcement, it wanted inclusion of effective penalties, brokering activities, arrangements to prevent, counter and prosecute corruption, etc. It also entailed the future treaty to have mutual treaty assistance as many developing countries may need national capacity-building to implement the treaty. The proposal also had provisions for signature, ratification, accession, entry into force, withdrawal, reservations, amendments, assembly of states parties, review conferences, consultation and dispute settlement. The member countries and NGOs responded to the Chairman draft proposal of the Chairman for three days. On July 14, 2011, the Chairman released another September 2011
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consolidated draft paper, apparently, taking into account reactions from the floor on his premeeting draft proposal. The July-14-consolidated draft put preamble, principles, goals and objectives, scope, criteria, which had been discussed in previous two PrepComs along with different aspects of implementation discussed in the third PrepCom. The new Chairman’s draft retained most of the provisions on implementation proposed in the earlier draft. Some details were added here and there. The new draft introduced new sections such as international cooperation, international assistance, victim assistance and relationship with non-state parties and other instruments. An annexure included transactions or activities that included technology transfer. VOICES OF DISSENT However, a number of countries such as India, the United States (US) and Pakistan maintained that the consolidated draft failed to reflect the understandings of many states. The US representative announced the possibility of the failure of the ATT-making process. Later, it changed the tone of reaction and demonstrated some positive approach towards the treaty. Pakistan also continued to pose a challenge to the treaty as it had done previously. The human rights angle to arms transfers emerged on contentious point. Though no government stated that procured arms should be used against innocent civilians, many apprehended that by bringing the human rights parameter, arms transfers would be politicised. Russia, China and Pakistan were the most vocal fearing the misuse of human rights in arms transfers. During the discussions on the scope of the treaty in the February 2011 PrepCom, China appeared soft on human rights, but against the inclusion of small arms in the treaty. THE INDIAN RESPONSE The India delegation responded to both the drafts of the Chairman of the PrepCom circulated before the beginning of the third PrepCom meeting and the July 14 consolidated draft. On the initial Chairman’s draft, the leader of the Indian delegation made it clear that the treaty should be “self-implementable through national measures and a degree of international www.geopolitics.in
cooperation”. He also felt that “detailed and burdensome implementation and followup provision” were not required. The focus of the Indian delegation was to achieve realistic parameter for implementation. India supported national implementation of the treaty, but did not support detailed treatment of the administrative and constitutional mechanisms. It wanted the documentation, the information and verification provisions under national control. It also opined that end-user control was a subjective matter. India appeared skeptical on criminalisation. India also opposed the formation of a separate monitoring or implementing body.
RUSSIA, CHINA AND PAKISTAN ARE OPPONENTS OF THE TREATY FEARING MISUSE OF THE HUMAN RIGHTS CLAUSE India viewed that many international regulatory mechanisms work without any secretariat. It did not favour a body, which may have to depend on ‘financial and human resources made available perhaps by a group of countries and not fully responsible to the states parties. Implementation is and should remain the responsibility of states parties meeting at regular intervals.’ India also opposed detailed reporting and record-keeping provisions. It found that these provisions would only burden the national governments. Also, it considered that there were national security, foreign policy and commercial sensitivities involved. India opposed notification and discussion of denials primarily because it found it intrusive and onerous and potential for politicisation. India wanted greater clarity in objectives and goals. It wanted precision in defining illicit transfers, which might help
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terrorism and other unlawful activities. India also wanted inclusion of the phrase — Non-State Actors — in the ATT. It wanted definition of all the listed weapons included in the scope of the treaty. Though it wanted small arms and light weapons, it opposed the inclusion of ‘ammunition, parts and components and technology in the scope of the proposed ATT’. On implementation, India preferred ATT to be less detailed. The leader of the delegation stated in the PrepCom: “Our objective is not to prescribe how export control systems should be designed or how they should be enforced. Our objective is to ensure that transfers are authorised after consideration of the criteria specified in the proposed treaty in due process based on national law and administrative procedures. Apart from being clearly national, implementation should also not burden importing and transit countries while granting intrusive rights to exporters to seek information and inspections. In our view the proposed treaty should reflect a balance between the rights and obligations of importers and exporters.” Different working groups made considerable progress towards crystallising the ATT. The member countries arrived at an understanding on a number of issue areas. The national governments would be the central place where details of implementation would be worked out. Still, there are issues that are to be resolved. India appears directionless at the current stage. It did well to guard its interests by opposing the inclusion of technology transfers. However, it failed to give a logical explanation for opposing reporting and exchange of information. The Indian government did not have any innovative proposal for small and light weapons controls. The illicit and clandestine transactions of small arms once wreaked havoc in the country, and there is no guarantee that in the future, it would not emerge as a problem. (The author is a senior Research Associate at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi) September 2011
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EXCERPTS
FROM CHINA TO BASTAR
AND KASHMIR
Henry Kissinger continues to see China through rose-tinted glasses as is evident from his latest book On China. Closer home, in his book Hello Bastar, journalist Rahul Pandita takes us deep into Naxal territory while A Tangled Web, the special issue of the IIC quarterly, seeks to look at the whole situation in Jammu and Kashmir from political, cultural, economic and social angles.
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ITH DIRECT access to the top Maoist leadership, Rahul Pandita provides a comprehensive and credible account of how a handful of men and women, who believed in the idea of revolution, entered Bastar in Central India in 1980 and created a powerful movement that the establishment now terms as India’s biggest internal security threat. Tracing the circumstances due to which the Maoist movement entrenched itself in about 10 states of India, carrying out deadly attacks against the establishment in the name of the poor and the marginalised. There are compelling insightsthat one may not necessarily agree with — into the lives of Maoist guerillas and also of the Adivasi tribals living in the Red zone. Based on extensive on-ground reportage and exhaustive interviews with Maoist leaders including their supreme commander Ganapathi, Kobad Ghandy and others who are jailed or many now killed, this book combines a dash of analysis with plenty of good narrative story-telling. It’s obvious Pandita believes the Maoists have a point to make. That isn’t the issue. The issue is the means they use and if that is the only option. Stripped off from the government’s and media’s propaganda, Hello Bastar brings you true accounts of actual people, their journey into Naxalism, their lives and aspirations. Pandita revealed that a childhood encounter with Maoists in fortnightly magazines and later as a reporter travelling in these areas, inspired him to write the book. He discovered the shocking extent of deprivation, poverty and exploitation that existed in the largest district of the country and what further created an impact on him was the massive divide between the area he reported about and the area he reported to. The reference of Metropolitan Delhi in comparison to tribal areas of www.geopolitics.in
Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh and Orrisa, gave him an insight into the extent of selected development and resource allocation that exists in this country and what disturbed him even more was the fact that in the last couple of years this crucial, socio-economic divide has actually accentuated rather than decreased. When asked about the objective of his book, Pandita said that he aimed to bring across and illustrate the point that Naxalism more than anything is an issue of development and of skewed socio-economic policy rather than an issue of violence and law and order. Having said that he further explained that the second purpose of his book was to reach the ordinary informed reader who is disillusioned by the government and media’s propaganda and doesn’t really know what is happening in his own backyard. He said that there is a complete lack of contemporary reader-oriented literature on this vital subject and his book aims to give its readers an opportunity to fill in these much-regretted information gaps.
Author — Rahul Pandita Tranquebar Press, Pages — 200, Price — `250 Year of Publication — 2011
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H
ENRY KISSINGER is 88 and in the four decades since that first historic trip to the Mainland he has made over 50 more. As one journalist neatly summed it: “He was not only the first official American emissary to Communist China, he persisted in his brokerage with more than 50 trips over four decades, spanning the careers of seven leaders on each side. September 2011
g EXCERPTS Diplomatically speaking, he owns the franchise.” For almost all these years -first as President Nixon’s national security adviser, then Secretary of State for Nixon and Gerald Ford and since 1977 as an erudite statesman diplomat who has had the ears of successive US Presidents — Kissinger has had but one goal: a laser-like focus on lessening the chasm that separates Communist China from Democratic America. His aim: Bridge the gap and help the two sides understand each other better. But the problem is that understanding the Chinese nuances, Kissinger sometimes comes up with explanations that, perhaps, he would scoff at in better times. On the crackdown against Chinese dissident and Nobel laureate Liu Xiaobo, he says: “I have not read his writings. My impression is the Chinese are extremely sensitive to the implications of the Jasmine Revolution, and that they find themselves in a position where if demonstrations develop, they know, or think they know, that the American government might be supportive so that they are probably trying to prevent any temptation from that. That’s how I interpret their general crackdown.” But Kissinger never gets into the nitty gritties although human rights figures plenty in the book. Simply because he hopes that a less public profile on such issues will help maintain influence. That he enjoys the confidence of the Chinese and the US establishment is to stress the obvious, but there are still chinks in the armour; he stepped down as chairman of the 9/11 Commission after facing calls to disclose the names of his corporate clients. The book has come in for scathing criticism from a wide segment of reviewers. The Guardian was devastating in its interpretation of the book: “In truth, the Chinese couldn’t believe their luck in finding such a naive and biddable partner as Kissinger. He gratefully accepts whatever the Chinese leaders tell him at face value, especially their nonsensical self-serving version of Chinese history. For instance, he starts the book with Mao explaining that Tamurlaine was really a Chinese general - Tamurlaine wanted to invade China.” Kissinger implies that only a clever diplomat such as himself can catch the sophistication of the Chinese people and their “subtle sense of the intangible”. So, in this book Chinese leaders never sound unreasonable, but always sensible and pragmatic, unlike the Americans, who make unreasonable demands and have confused ideas about democracy and human rights All in all, the 600-page tome is a rambling narrative on why China does what it does and why the rest of the world needs to understand the subtlety and sophistication of the Chinese. It’s a pity that a diplomat-statesman continues to wear his rose-tinted glasses when examining China. There are remarkable elements to Chinese society and government, but surely putting a noble laureate in jail for voicing his desire for freedom can’t be one of them. Kissinger doesn’t see him as he doesn’t the countless others who are waiting to tell their story on the real China.
Author — Henry Kissinger The Penguin Press, Pages — 586, Price — `900 Year of Publication — 2011
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JUST, viable and lasting peace in Kashmir must involve all the communities and nationalities living in the state and not Kashmiri Muslims alone, who resorted to the gun and have, thus, been the worst affected by the political violence in the state. This is important because if the political demands of the non-violent mobilizations in jammu, Ladakh as well as Nqrthem Areas on the Pakistani side are not addressed through the peace process, it will send a message that ‘violence pays’, defeating the very purpose of a peace process. Recognizing the rich, complex and multi-layered character of the Kashmir issue is, therefore, important not only for understanding the structural causes of this conflict, but also for creating critical political spaces that allow an exploration of ways and means to find its just, viable and lasting solution. Second, it is important to note that political mobilizations in the state have taken place along religious, ethnic, linguistic as well as regional lines. To privilege or superimpose only the communal fault line is, thus, a flawed approach. As argued earlier, the Kashmir conflict, traditionally, has been understood in terms of a HinduMuslim conflict. While in 1947-48, the genesis of this conflict was attributed to the Hindu Maharaja acceding to India against the wishes of his Muslim-majority populace; and in the 1990s, the Kashmiri insurgency was projected as the Muslim-majority Jammu and Kashmir state seeking secession from the Hindu-majority India. Both formulations are erroneous and misleading. Historically, Kashmir’s fate was neither preordained nor decided on the ideological grounds in 1947. Being part of the Princely Order, the Dogra state of Jammu and Kashmir lay outside the domain of British India, which was divided on the basis of the two-nation theory. It was more important from the standpoint of geographical consolidation and defence needs of the respective Dominions; and the battle between the Congress and the Muslim League leadership over seeking its accession was fundamentally political in nature. Kashmir was not conceived as an inalienable part of ‘the idea of either Pakistan or India’.5 And, the insurgent movement in the 1990s proved to be a challenge to the Indian state as long as it was fought on political grounds, seeking Kashmiris’ right to self-determination; it floundered on becoming an Islamic jihad. Significantly, within Jammu and Kashmir, regional alignments have proved to be a critical factor, the antecedents of which can be traced to the early 1940s when differences between Punjabi speaking, traditional Sunni Muslims of Jammu and Kashmiri speaking Muslims who believed in an eclectic Sufi Islam, led to political and, later, territorial divisions between Jammu and the Valley.
EXCERPTS
(Excerpted from the chapter Re-framing the Conflict by Navnita Chadha Behera)
Edited by — Ira Pande Harper Collins Publishers, Pages — 284, Price — `699 Year of Publication — 2011
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September 2011
GEOPOLITICS
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Right Angle
RUSSIA’S PREDICAMENT
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HERE ARE some interesting trends that mark global arms trade now. It is well known that the United States is the world’s largest arms exporter, followed by Russia. India tops the list in importing arms, and in this it is closely followed by China. What, perhaps, is not adequately highlighted is that big exporters also import arms. The United States, for instance, buys a lot of arms and ammunition from Great Britain (23 per cent of total British arms exports). And what is more significant, Russia, which, thanks to the Cold War, was totally self-reliant on its domestic militaryindustrial establishment, has started looking for arms from other countries, particularly those in West Europe. However, there is a big difference between the US importing military items from Britain and Russia buying them from France or Germany. There are no domestic protests when Pentagon prefers British arms. But, in the case of Prakash Russia, there is always a hue and cry when the Russian defence ministry signs deals with French or German firms. In fact, many Russian critics and firms were quite sceptical about the outcome of the latest air show at Moscow. That the air show, which we have covered in this issue, was a smooth affair is another story. It is pretty evident that the Russian defence industry is undergoing some sort of turbulence, to say the least. While justifying his ministry’s decision to buy European arms, Defence Minister Anatoliy Serdyukov has, on record, accused domestic arms producers of making “weapons of questionable quality” and charging “unjustified high prices”. On the other hand, industry leaders blame the defence ministry for withholding funds. In fact, Russia’s Federation of Independent Trade Unions and the Association of Defence Industry Unions have demanded the legislation of a national law to ban the “regular” procurement of weapons from abroad. The resultant tensions have been such that President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin have called for tempers to be calmed and for all to work together. What are the purchase deals that Moscow has signed of late, causing much anguish to the Russian arms industry? On June 17, Russia signed a recordbreaking deal with France when Moscow bought two French Mistral-class assault ships/helicopter carriers worth more than $1.4 billion, with additional options for purchasing two more. On the same day, Germany’s leading producer of military technology, Reinmetall, signed a $398-million contract with Russia to develop a “combat training centre for Russian ground forces”. The deal with France is the first major arms import deal since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991; in
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fact, it is the largest deal between a NATO country and Russia since the World War II-era. Second, it marked a deviation from Russia’s official defence procurement programme through 2015 because that did not envision construction or purchases of large combat ships. Of course, it could be argued that every country — and Russia is no exception — can always change its priorities, depending on the changed security environment. Tactically speaking, the Russian security elite must have realised that control of the country’s littoral regions, which include the Baltic Sea and much of the Black Sea, depends heavily on helicopters and UAVs. Russian naval capabilities are limited in these areas, evident during the recent war with Georgia. Mistral Class LHDs (Landing Helicopter Dock), it was thought, would go a long way towards improving Russia’s capabilities in these areas. The other aspect of Moscow’s changed thinking may well be the realisation that its shipbuilding indusNanda try is not in the pink of health. Major shipbuilders have defaulted on commercial contracts and fiascos like the Admiral Gorshkov refit for India have undoubtedly tarnished the global reputation of Russian defence products. Viewed thus, the Mistral-buy indicates a certain lack of confidence in Russian shipbuilding. All this notwithstanding, it will be an over-exaggeration to say that Russian arms imports will destroy the domestic military-industrial base. All told, Russia exported arms worth $10 billion in 2010. The figure is likely to cross $11 billion this year. Pedaling missiles, submarines and fighter planes, Russia is feeding a hungry market, particularly in Asia. Of course, not all weapons that leave Russia are paid for in time, or fully, or ever, but that again is a different story. Be that as it may, India has got every reason to keep a tab on the health of the Russian arms industry. That is simply because Russia exports as much as 33 per cent of its arms to India, 10 per cent more than what it sells to China. As I had once argued in this column, Russia will continue to be India’s largest source of military procurement in the foreseeable future, despite our wise policy, of late, to diversify the sources. Along with the technological and economic factors involved in any arms deal, countries do take into account the strategic factor, that involves, among others, the comfort level between the exporter and importer on the broad assessment of global developments. And here, Russia gives a higher priority to India in its foreign policy and strategic calculations than the United States or any other power, despite the incremental US acknowledgments of India’s importance.
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prakashnanda@newsline.in September 2011
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