Geopolitics

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THE DIPLOMACY OF MILITARY EXERCISES

geopolitics VOL II, ISSUE III, AUGUST 2011 n ` 100

DEFENCE n DIPLOMACY n SECURITY

DO THEY NEED

ABOSS?

IT IS TIME TO TAKE A FINAL CALL ON THE POST OF CHIEF OF DEFENCE STAFF

in 2011

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COVER STORY (P38)

THE CDS DILEMMA Do we need a Chief of Defence Staff — a post that is an accepted norm in 60-plus countries? We take a close look at the challenges and objections raised by a section of the armed forces for the post.

PANORAMA (P10)

PERSPECTIVE (P12)

SPEED DEMON

UNITED FRONT

The superlative X2, Sikorsky’s hybrid chopper that has broken records is all set to be the basis for a new generation of attack helicopters.

Joint military exercises enable officers and the troops to acquaint themselves with each other’s tactics, techniques and procedures.

SPECIAL REPORT (P20)

DEF BIZ (P27)

INTERNAL SECURITY (P58)

NUCLEAR CONUNDRUM MISSION ACQUISITION

SYSTEMIC FAILURE

After David Headley’s confessions, it is clear that extra efforts are needed to keep India’s nuclear facilities safe.

The latest attacks in Mumbai prove that the political leadership of the country has not learnt any lessons after 26/11.

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After the CAG’s rap on its knuckles for the lack of a modern primary trainer, the Indian Air Force seems keen to acquire the Pilatus PC-7 II.

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August 2011

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GUARDING THE HOME FRONT (P32)

JUNGLE WARRIORS (54)

CENTRAL ASIAN CHALLENGE (P66)

TOUGH TASK AHEAD (P73)

INDESEC 2011 brought the best in the homeland security industry for the government and corporates to choose some truly innovative products.

Learning to fight a guerrilla like a guerrilla is the way forward for security forces battling the Naxalite menace.

As they try not to offend US sensibilities both India and the SCO are in a fix about whether or not to associate a ‘pariah’ Iran.

Yingluck Shinawatra may have won a resounding electoral victory but placating all the stakeholders in Thailand may prove to be a daunting task.

SPOTLIGHT (P36) SMALL BUT DEADLY After cancelling the first tender for it, a fresh set of trials is ample proof that the armed forces just cannot do without the Light Strike Vehicle, especially for Special Operations.

DIPLOMACY (69)

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REINING IN THE DRAGON

Editor-in-Chief

K SRINIVASAN

INDIA HAS TO DEVELOP A VIABLE

Editor

GEOPOLITICS Consulting Editor

SAURAV JHA

PRAKASH NANDA

AID MECHANISM TO COUNTER

Managing Editor

THE DELUGE OF CHINESE AID

TIRTHANKAR GHOSH Assistant Editor

JUSTIN C MURIK

Publishing Director

ROHIT GOEL

AROUND THE WORLD.

Senior Correspondent

Copy Editor

ROHIT SRIVASTAVA

ASHOK KUMAR

Director (Corporate Affairs

RAJIV SINGH

Conceptualised and designed by Newsline Publications Pvt. Ltd., from D-11 Basement, Nizamuddin (East), New Delhi -110 013, Tel: +91-11-41033381-82 for NEWSEYE MEDIA PVT. LTD. All information in GEOPOLITICS is derived from sources we consider reliable. It is passed on to our readers without any responsibility on our part. Opinions/views expressed by third parties in abstract or in interviews are not necessarily shared by us. Material appearing in the magazine cannot be reproduced in whole or in part(s) without prior permission. The publisher assumes no responsibility for material lost or damaged in transit. The publisher reserves the right to refuse, withdraw or otherwise deal with all advertisements without explanation. All advertisements must comply with the Indian Advertisements Code. The publisher will not be liable for any loss caused by any delay in publication, error or failure of advertisement to appear.

Owned and published by K Srinivasan, 4C Pocket-IV, Mayur Vihar, Phase-I, Delhi-91 and printed by him at Nutech Photolithographers, B-240, Okhla Industrial Area, Phase-I, New Delhi-110020.

Readers are welcome to send their feedback at geopolitics@newsline.in.

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THE DIPLOMACY OF MILITARY EXERCISES

geopolitics VOL II, ISSUE III, AUGUST 2011 ` 100

DEFENCE DIPLOMACY SECURITY

DO THEY NEED

ABOSS?

IT IS TIME TO TAKE A FINAL CALL ON THE POST OF CHIEF OF DEFENCE STAFF

Cover Design: Ruchi Sinha

August 2011

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LETTERS

LETTERS TO EDITOR

T

he cover story on the DRDO in the July issue was a very informative read. The story was done in a manner never tried before by ING OP VEL DE defence journalists, OUR OWN especially in India.

The defence magazines in India follow a set pattern in their publication. Your novel approach deserves applause.

The overall mix of news and feature is very balanced and justifies the name ‘Geopolitics’. ‘New Toy’ was a very timely published article and gave the detailed information and analysis on this new game changer in the Pakistani arsenal. I am sure this story must have been duly appreciated elsewhere as well.

Finally I wish to congratulate your team for the news snippets and gossip. India has numerous publications in the same domain but none has ever touched upon gossip in the official circles, which is a sensitive matter.

Articles need to be a little more technical for better-informed readers. Looking forward for your future issues…

Hope you come up with more such unique stories.

GEOPOLITIC

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A C Y D I P L O M

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domestic defence industry by highlighting their capabilities is indeed very laudable.

This kind of content is not available in any other defence or security magazine in India. Keep up the good work.

Ramesh Chunder, Shimla

PLANS A REVAMPED DRDO DESPITE SCEPTICS, GICAL SURPRISES TO SPRING TECHNOLO

Himanshu Panda, Bhubaneswar

I

am a retired army officer and just recently came across an issue of Geopolitics. Although I don’t agree with everything that is in the magazine, I still must commend you on the quality of the magazine — both the presentation and the contents. What is most impressive is your balance between not just strategic issues and foreign policies but also India’s military modernisation and upgrade programmes. The support being given to our www.geopolitics.in

T

his in reference to F-35 for MMRCA (July 2011). The Indian Air NEPAL Force should consciously move towards building a fighting force cenng nki Thi The tered around the fifth-generation fighters. India is already collaborating with Russia for the development of a fifth-generation fighter which will form the nucleus of the Indian Air Force in the future. Till that comes around, having a couple of squadrons of F-35s will provide India the edge and the training to our pilots on stealth fighters with advance avionics. It will be well into the 2020s by the time the current order of 126 MMRCAs are inducted into the Air Force (though the order is expected to be much more); so, what is the point in having them then? Why can’t they be replaced by fifth-generation fighters… it just makes more sense. Given our offset clause, it will also provide our domestic defence and aerospace industry the opportunity to upgrade their knowledge, skills and capacity. Yes, it might make the whole programme more expensive but in the long run, this will prove to be more costeffective as the short-listed fighters for the MMRCA will require upgrades in another decade or so. Rather than a stop-gap solution all the time, we should plan to have a master plan for the IAF for 2030 and then work backwards to see how best to achieve GEOPOLITIC

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that. Nothing can be more important than national security!

Pankaj Kapoor, Chandigarh

I

have recently begun reading your magazine and am extremely impressed by the fact that there is something new in each issue. Your June cover story “The Thinking General” was particularly fascinating. To get an account of some of the best strategic minds of world in the limited space of a magazine, was a learning experience. We in India suffer from a lack of a “strategic culture”. This is considered by many the main reason why India has not been able to tackle some of the major security issues after Independence. It is also the reason why our nations has often been tagged as a “Soft State” In this regard I think the article was a good effort to explain this important dimension that is absent from our strategic thinking. But if the article had put some more emphasis on the Indian strategists of the ancient and medieval era, it would have become a “complete” piece. It’s not that in the past India didn’t have master tacticians of war, but we have not been able to do justice to their efforts.

Your magazine is evolving and a final character is still to emerge. Wish you luck.

Abhinav Trehan, Chandigarh

All Correspondence may be addressed to Editor, Geopolitics, D-11 Basement, Nizamuddin (East), New Delhi-13, OR mail to geopolitics@newsline.in.

August 2011

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Better late than never

THE TURF battle between the army and the Central Police Organisation (CPO) has become a full-fledged information war. The news about the Army’s reluctance in giving away Assam Rifles to Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) and desire to have operational control over Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) has created quite a buzz in defence circles. The media is being briefed and de-briefed by both sides giving their perspective. One CPO officer in charge of media said, “I don’t have such a large support staff like the Army to wage this kind of misinformation campaign.” The reluctance of IPS in joining this is making cadre officers insecure. But it is a good opportunity for the media as the all so secretive operational details is being discussed on an hourly basis. Bhai Sanu ki!

Khende hai na — bin mausam barsaat. Well that’s what’s happened as far some Central Police Organisations (CPOs) are concerned. Overnightji, cadre officers who were languishing in their posts without promotion for years were suddenly promoted to their next rank. The government order for creation of no new post, had forced them to continue in same post sans promotion for years. For the record it may be mentioned that the biggest gainers were Deputy Commandants in CPO who were waiting for their promotion for several years. Also, the uneven expansion in the CPO has created chaos in the middle ranks. Some of the forces are expanding rapidly, but others are not. Many believe that in the years to come there will be huge jostling among officers to leave their parent cadre for other organisations within the CPO. It will be a huge loss of experience and expertise. But Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) babus don’t seem to worry! They repeat the signature tune of North Block ad nauseum: Sanu ki?

The real power THERE IS little doubt that the man who really calls the shots in Delhi’s power chessboard is the Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister TK (Kutty) A Nair. For all the pretensions that Raksha Mantri AK Antony is the man-in-command, he doesn’t take a single nod without looking over his shoulders and seeing if the bosses on the other side of South Block are approving of his moves. And be sure that if he can postpone a decision, he will most certainly not take it. What it means is that decisions will be taken when they can no longer be postponed. Insiders aver that in the Army Chief’s age controversy it was Nair who was driving the whole agenda and it was the direction of the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) that Vahanvati was following.

There is a sneaking suspicion in some circles that Nair was doing this to make sure that the Head of Eastern Command, Lt General Bikram Singh doesn’t lose out on the coveted chief’s mantle. That happens if Singh retires next year. But that is being grossly unfair to Bikram Singh who is highly-rated by the forces and, perhaps, deserves it on his own steam. So, what’s the inside story Nair Sahab. Batao na!

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August 2011

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For a house in Delhi

AT THE rate at which Pune is being adopted as the last port of call, it could well be the latest command for the armed forces: the superannuated command. It is a bit of a coincidence that two retiring Air Chiefs, back to back, have decided that Pune is where they will retire to ruminate over a glittering career that went far beyond their wildest dreams and one they enjoyed to the hilt. While Pradeep Vasant Naik will move in the next few weeks to Pune, his immediate predecessor Fali Major is already well settled in the foothills of the Western Ghats.

There are others too who have chosen the city for a variety of reasons. These include the late General Vaidya (who actually belonged to the city) and Air Marshal Ramdas who had lead Indian Airlines post his life in the Air Force. Fali Major interestingly is on the AI Board. So what will Naik really do? Those in the know say that he hopes to rest, recuperate and then get back on his feet a few months down the line. Apparently, several top corporations want him on their board and the opportunities for the Chief to really put all his experience and expertise for use in the private sector is unlimited. But we’ll have to wait and see what he finally chooses. Sabar rakho ji!

A GOVERNMENT bungalow in Delhi is one prized possession that no one wants to let go. Recently, a senior paramilitary officer was promoted and transferred out of Delhi after completing his tenure. The officer is in charge of two regions, one in North -East and one in western India. He is in charge of North-East sector only for one reason — to keep his Delhi residence. Any officer who is posted in the North-East can keep the Delhi residence. He needs a home in Delhi as his children are pursuing higher education in the capital. But the point is, how on earth is he going to manage affairs of two sectors which are at distance of thousands of kilometres? But the Grih Mantri is, perhaps, not aware of what goes on in the Central Police Organisations (CPOs) all in the name of a ghar. It is time for him to ask for a list of officials posted in the regions and find out what they are doing. Bhai doodh ka doodh aur paani ka paani. And if he doesn't do it, he could well face a Public Interest Litigation (PIL) or the Central Vigilance Commission (CVC) report on the matter.

Follow the heart P V Naik is the sort of bloke whose advice to anyone will be simple: “Follow your heart”. That’s the sort of bloke he himself is — speaks from the heart, blunt, straightforward and precise. So, no surprise that he told Army Chief General VK Singh, with whom he shares a “great synergy”, to do whatever he feels is “right”. This was in connection with the issues that were confronting Singh, primarily the age controversy with the government finally deciding against his plea.

All the present three services chiefs — Gen VK Singh, Admiral Nirmal Verma and ACM Naik — were together at the National Defence Academy and were part of the same training group called the Hunter Squadron. The Hunter Squadron is unique because it is the only one in which cadets can sport moustaches that they may shave-off as they are passing out of the academy. None of the service chiefs sports a moustache anymore. All cadets in the National Defence Academy are divided into 14 squadrons in four battalions. The service chiefs have known each other as comrades since they were in their teens.

“All three services chief at present, including General VK Singh and the navy chief, Admiral Nirmal Verma, and myself are from the Hunter Squadron in the National Defence Academy and share a great synergy and spirit of co-operation and friendship in spite of the seniority gaps,” he said and added: “I have given him only one advice that do whatever you feel is right. After all, it is a matter of friendship. What else can I tell him?” Naik said.

For the Army Chief, though, it has become a matter of the “mooch”. After all, he had a valid point and the government has chosen to go with Goolam Vahanvati, their LawOfficer-in-Chief, rather than the counsel of three retired Chief Justices plus the Law Ministry. Only goes to show that when the sarkar wants to do something, there is no stopping them! But what will Singh do? Sanu nahin pata!

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August 2011

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PANORAMA

DANCING IN THE AIR! Sikorsky’s versatile X2 technology could be the stepping stone for the next generation of flying machines. And if this programme proves its worth, then it could script a new chapter in the history of high performance helicopters.

S

IKORSKY’S ICONIC X2 Technology demonstrator has flown for the last time. It is now transitioning to its first application, the S-97 Raider.

And what will that be?

The S-97 Raider programme will design, build and fly two prototype assault/attack aircraft with six-passenger cabins and the ability to carry armament. It will enable the US military to evaluate the viability of a fast and manoeuvrable next-generation rotorcraft for a variety of combat missions.

In addition to the superior speed and manoeuvrability of X2 technology, these aircraft are designed to be capable of 10,000-foot hover out of ground effect on a 95-degree day.

Like the X2 Technology demonstrator, the S-97 Raider helicopter will be designed to feature twin coaxial counterrotating main rotors and a pusher

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propeller that enables an X2-designed helicopter to cruise at 220 knots.

Other innovative technologies include flyby-wire flight controls, hub drag reduction, active vibration control, and an integrated auxiliary propulsion system.

The aircraft also has an integrated auxiliary propulsion system (a rear pusher prop).

The twenty-third test flight of the X2 which flew approximately 22 total hours and achieved a maximum cruise speed of 253 knots in level flight at its peak point in the programme was also the last. That milestone, an unofficial speed record for a conventional helicopter, was achieved on September 15, 2010.

The prototype was designed with no clutch between the main rotors and propulsor, which requires the pilot to increase forward speed through the variable pitch control on the six-bladed rear propeller. Once

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in the 180kt realm, the X2’s computer automatically slowed the main rotors and increased collective pitch to prevent tip speeds from entering high-drag transonic region, with the pilot correspondingly increasing propulsor pitch to increase the X2’s speed as the propulsor also slows.

Tests indicated that the X2 met its vibration targets — about the level of a traditional helicopter flying at 140kt — when cruising at its top speed of 250kt with the active system engaged.

Sikorsky first announced its intention to develop the X2 Technology Demonstrator using a coaxial rotor design in 2005, with the aim of demonstrating that a helicopter can cruise comfortably at 250 knots without sacrificing low speed manoeuvrability and hover capabilities and with the ability to transition from low to high speeds seamlessly.

Sikorsky says the X2 programme has now August 2011

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HYBRID SUPERCOPTER: The X2 has set the performance benchmark for the next generation of helicopters

proven its design ticks all those boxes, while helping in developing the next generation of Sikorsky engineers, some of who are now working on the S-97 Raider programme and the Firefly electric helicopter programme.

The S-97 is intended as a possible contender for the United States Army’s requirement for an Armed Aerial Scout to replace the Bell OH-58D Kiowa Warrior.

The US Special Operations Command has also expressed interest in the concept, —specifically for missions like infiltrating navy SEALs on covert missions, as the S-97 operates quietly and without a tail rotor.

The helicopter could also be adopted by the US Marine Corps as a high-speed, armed escort for the Bell Boeing V-22 Osprey tiltrotor. Like the Russian Mil Mi-24, the S-97 Raider will carry weapons and troops, but fly faster than 200kt (370km/h) in cruise, and 220kt in dash mode. It will be pitched to other potential www.geopolitics.in

US and foreign military customers over the next decade.

The X2 Technology programme began in 2005 when Sikorsky first committed resources and full funding, ultimately $50 million, for the programme’s development.

Earlier this year, the X2 Technology demonstrator team won the 2010 Robert J. Collier Trophy, awarded annually to recognise the greatest achievements in aeronautics or astronautics in America. In addition to winning the 2010 Collier Trophy, over the past two years the X2 Technology demonstrator received numerous accolades including the 2010 Hughes Award from the American Helicopter Society and Aviation Week‘s “One of the Top 10 Technologies to Watch” for 2010. In 2009, it won a Popular Mechanics Breakthrough Innovator Award, and a Popular Science “Best of What’s New” award. It also was named “One of 2009’s Best Inventions” by Time.

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The X2 design is scalable, opening up a variety of potential mission uses including joint-multi-role such as combat search and rescue, armed aerial scout, medical evacuation (MEDEVAC), attack, VIP transport, and offshore oil.

The X2 could be the foundation for the next generation of Sikorsky helicopters.

However, the conventional helicopter, with one overhead rotor and a stabilizing rear rotor, will continue to be produced for years to come. But if this programme proves successful, the era of the hybrid could be taking off. And if it does take off, it will be with soldiers aboard, he said, because the civilian market is more concerned about fuel efficiency and maintenance costs rather than speed, which is a top military need.

The X2 has achieved the company’s four performance objectives for the programme: low single-pilot workload, low vibration, low acoustic signature, and high speed.

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PERSPECTIVE

MARCHING TOGETHER Defence diplomacy, which includes military exercises and maritime cooperation, is a potent foreign policy tool and a viable instrument for promoting national interests, writes GURMEET KANWAL

O

VER THE last two decades, India has shown enhanced interest in international military-to-military cooperation, including maritime cooperation, in keeping with its growing stature as a regional power. Defence cooperation is being effectively employed as a foreign policy tool to promote India’s national interests, including strategic outreach. It is now one of the main forms of engagement with many countries such as Bhutan, China, France, Indonesia, Israel, Japan, Mauritius, Myanmar, Nepal, Oman, Singapore, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Tajikistan, the United Kingdom and the United States.

India’s military-to-military contacts are particularly vibrant and dynamic with countries like Bhutan, Nepal and the US. There is an increasing realisation in the government that defence cooperation can play a key role in regional and global security. While inaugurating a seminar on defence cooperation organised by the Centre for Land Warfare Studies, New Delhi, on February 18, 2008, India’s Defence Minister AK Antony had said that globalisation affected defence as much as any other activity and there was a need to continually find avenues for exchanging points of view with colleagues overseas, as well as learning from successful innovations being implemented elsewhere.

Defence cooperation has many dimensions today, including the sale, purchase and joint development of military equipment,

STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP: Indian soldiers with their American counterparts at a joint army exercise.

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g PERSPECTIVE transfer of technology, intelligence sharing and coordination for counter-terrorism and counter-proliferation, cooperation in jointly providing relief and succour after natural calamities, coordination in transnational anti-drug trafficking activities and the joint patrolling of sea lanes of communication against piracy and terrorism. It is also about working together to maintain peace and stability under a cooperative security framework.

The primary aim of joint military exercises is for the officers and the troops on both the sides to acquaint themselves with each other’s TTPs (tactics, techniques and procedures), test the interoperability of their communications systems and gain confidence in conducting joint operations in a spirit of mutual trust. In the rapidly globalising

UNITED KINGDOM-INDIA EXERCISES

Months & Years

Locations/Remarks

October 2006

Agra and at Gwalior

September 2007 Jammu & Kashmir September 2008 — Lions Strike and Wessex Warrior Portsmouth in June 2009 — Konkan British waters The exercise involved a company of Indian soldiers 2010 training alongside British troops for two months world, joint military operations in future are likely to be conducted in five major areas:

United Nations peacekeeping and peace support operations; maritime security operations to make the seas safe for lawful use; military intervention operations for humanitarian purposes or against rogue regimes — with or without UN Security Council approval; counter-insurgency and counterterrorism operations against radical extremist organisations; and, rescue and relief operations during natural calamities, like the devastating 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami.

While India does not enter into military alliances, training with other well-organised and well-equipped armed forces helps gain knowledge and experience about best practices around the world and to better prepare for the eventuality of having to operate together in the future. Joint military exercises also help showcase India’s military preparedness so as to deter aggression.

CONSTRUCTIVE MILITARY ENGAGEMENT In the recent past, India has conducted joint military exercises with a large number of countries, including regional neighbours and those in India’s extended neighbourhood, or area of strategic interest. These countries include Botswana, China, Oman, Russia, Singapore, the United Kingdom, the United States and Vietnam. With the US, India conducted nine land-forces exercises in 2010 alone, besides naval and air force exercises. India’s experience in counterinsurgency and other internal security operations is much valued by overseas armies. In fact, individual personnel as well as platoons and companies from many friendly armies have trained at India’s Counterinsurgency and Jungle Warfare (CIJW ) School at Vairengete, Mizoram. The Indian Army’s operational experience in the super high-altitude terrain of Siachen Glacier, the highest battlefield in the world, is also equally valued.

With China, India conducted Exercise Hand-in-Hand, a company-level (100 soldiers each) counter-terrorism exercise, in Yunnan province in southern China in December 2007. One year later, a similar exercise was held at Belgaum in India. The aim was to get to know each other and the troops got on well. However, professionally the Chinese soldiers came off second best as they appeared to lack basic tactical skills and were relatively poorly equipped. In the wake of the denial of a Chinese Visa to the GOCin-C, Northern Command, for a scheduled exchange visit in 2010, further military exchanges between the two countries have been temporarily suspended by India.

Like the Army, the Indian Air Force has

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SHARING BEST PRACTICES: South African commandoes conducting drills aboard an Indian Navy ship. conducted joint exercises with various other air forces. The most notable exercises have been with the US Air Force. These have been conducted over the skies at Gwalior and Kalaikunda in India and Alaska and Nevada in the US. The IAF pilots earned the admiration of the USAF with their professional skills.

Other nations with whom similar exercises were successfully conducted include France, Russia, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

MARITIME EXERCISES The maximum number of joint exercises have been conducted in the maritime domain. Large naval exercises are not new to the Indian Ocean region and the Indian Navy has always participated in them with gusto.

From 1949 up to the 1965 war, the Indian Navy joined other Commonwealth navies, including Australia, Britain and Pakistan, to participate in exercises called Joint Exercises Trincomalee. Then the Royal Navy pulled out of the Indian Ocean and the US Sixth and Seventh Fleets sailed in to fill the vacuum.

Defence relations with the US gradually improved, particularly after the 1991 visit by General Claude Kicklighter of the Pacific Command. The first joint exercises with the US Navy, part of the Malabar series, were held in 1994. In the beginning, the exercises were basic in nature and progressively improved in content and complexity with the introduction of advanced surface ships, while submarines and long-range maritime www.geopolitics.in

INDIA-SINGAPORE EXERCISES

Months & Years

Locations/Remarks

March 2006—SIMBEX 06 (Singapore Bay of Bengal India Maritime Bilateral Exercises) Deolali, near Nasik in October 2007 Maharashtra 2008 — SINDEX Joint air exercise 2008 Aimed at validating 2009 — Bold inter-operability beKurukshetra tween the two forces Near the coast of AnApril 2010 — daman and Nicobar IsSIMBEX ‘10 lands and in the Bay of Bengal March 2011 Bold Kurukshetra

Babina Cantonment in Jhansi

patrol aircraft acted as a catalyst to the nascent naval cooperation.

With India’s unique position astride the shipping lanes of the Indian Ocean, which has over 100,000 ships transiting through annually, it was only natural that the maritime community that depended on these sea lanes of communications should befriend the sole regional navy. The Indian Navy began to exercise with the navies of Britain (Konkan series), France (Varuna series), Indonesia, Oman, Russia (Indra

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series), Thailand, Singapore (Simbex series), and the US (Malabar series). In addition to these bilateral exercises in the Indian Ocean, the Indian Navy availed the opportunity of port calls to Australia, China, Japan and New Zealand to carry out limited tactical manoeuvres at sea.

From bilateral exercises to multilateral ones, which reduce sailing time and costs and multiply operational benefits, was but a short step. According to Admiral Arun Prakash, former Chief of Naval Staff (CNS), “Over the past decade or so, our surface-ship operators, submariners and aircrew have gained tremendously in self-confidence and expertise by pitting their professional skills against the best in the business…The Ministry of External Affairs was not very keen, but obviously the Navy managed to convince them.”

The Varuna series of Indo-French joint naval exercises were held in 1993, 1996, 1999 and 2000. In May and November 2002, there were two joint exercises, including with the Charles De Gaulle, a French nuclear-powered aircraft carrier. The two navies have also held passage exercises whenever an opportunity has presented itself. The two navies have now formalised the scope and extent of their cooperation and are expected to hold joint naval exercises annually. Annual exercises are also held with the Singapore Navy. Coordinated patrolling exercises are being undertaken with Indonesia twice a year in March and September to prevent August 2011

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g PERSPECTIVE INDIA-CHINA EXERCISES

Months & Years

Locations/Remarks

December 2007 — China’s south-western “Hand-in-Hand, province of Yunnan 2007” January 2008

Belgaum

2011 (Planned)

Joint military exercises in 2011, three years after the process was first initiated

illegal fishing, poaching, migration and smuggling of arms. India’s first integrated military command at the Andaman and Nicobar Islands at Port Blair hosted ‘MILAN 2003’ from 11 to 15 February 2003. The gathering was a confluence of navies from several Indian Ocean countries. Warships and naval delegates from Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapore, Sri Lanka and Thailand participated in the event.

When Japanese Prime Minister Abe had suggested a “quadrilateral” meeting between Australia, Japan, India and the US a few years ago, the move had raised China’s suspicions.

China formally queried the Japanese about the underlying motives as it became apprehensive that the four countries were likely to gang up against it. Chinese scholars and analysts have even dubbed this loose group of democracies an Asian NATO. The quadrilateral is far from becoming a cooperative military venture as India does not join military alliances and prefers to maintain its strategic autonomy. In fact, it is not so well known that the Chinese, Indian and Russian foreign ministers have met four times in the last three years. Hence, there is a clear attempt on India’s part to cooperate with all the major Asian powers to maintain peace and stability in the southern Asian and northern Indian Ocean regions.

INTERVENTION CAPABILITIES In keeping with its growing power and responsibilities, India has been steadily enhancing its expeditionary and military intervention capabilities for out-of-area contingencies. Some of these growing capabilities have been amply demonstrated. During the 1991 Gulf War, India evacuated approximately 150,000 civilian personnel who had been forced to leave Iraq. They were airlifted from the airfield at Amman, Jordan, over a period of 30 days. During the South East Asian tsunami in 2004, the Indian armed forces were in the forefront of relief-and-rescue operations. Over 70 Indian Navy ships www.geopolitics.in

INDIA-RUSSIA EXERCISES

Months & Years

Locations/Remarks

INDIA-FRANCE EXERCISES

Months & Years

Locations/Remarks

November 2005 — Anti-terroristic miliIndra 2005 tary exercises

March 2006 — Varuna 06

Arabian Sea

September 2007 — Joint anti-terrorist exercise in Central Russia.

Indra-2007

February 2007

2009 — Indra 2009

Naval exercise in Indian Ocean

October 2010 — Indra 2010

Anti-insurgency operations

INDIA-US EXERCISES

Months & Years

Locations/Remarks

January 2006 — Yudh Abhyas 06-1 September 2006 — Yudh Abhyas 06-2 October 2006 — Shatrujeet 06 September 2007 — Yudh Abhyas 07-1

Chaubattia

October 2007 — Yudh Abhyas

Chaubattia, India

April 2008 — Yudh Abhyas 08

Hawaii, USA

August 2008 — Vejra Prahar 08

Hawaii-Guam, USA

January 2009 — Shatrujeet 09

Belgaum, India

August 2009 — Vajra 09

Guam, USA

October 2009 — Yudh Abhyas 09

Babina, India

March 2010 — Shatrujeet

Camp Pendleton

August 2010 — Vajra Prahar

Belgaum, India

October 2010 — Yudh Abhyas

Alaska

Hawaii, USA Belgaum, India Alaska, USA

had set sail with rescue teams and relief material in less than 72 hours of the disaster even though the Indian people on the eastern seaboard had themselves suffered horrendously. Indian naval ships on a goodwill visit to European countries during the Lebanon war in 2006 lifted and brought back 5,000 Indian civilian refugees.

With the arrival of INS Jalashwa, the erstwhile USS Trenton, in September 2007, India’s strategic sea-lift capability has been

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Kalaikunda airbase in West Bengal May 2008 — Varuna 08 Bay of Bengal May 2009 — Europe Varuna 09 January 2010 — Arabian Sea Varuna 10 substantially upgraded to lifting one infantry battalion at a time. More Landing Platform Docks (LPDs) are likely to be acquired. The SU-30 MKI long-range fighter-bombers with air-to-air refuelling capability that India acquired from Russia, the six C-130J Special Forces transport aircraft and 10 C-17 Globemaster aircraft now in the pipeline and the AWACS and maritime surveillance capabilities that India intends to build over the next five to ten years, will give India considerable strategic outreach. However, India has consistently favoured military interventions under a UN umbrella.

Though that position is unlikely to change quickly, India may join future coalitions of the willing when its vital national interests are threatened and need to be defended.

Facing complex strategic scenarios and living in an increasingly unstable neighbourhood, India has no option but to encourage a cooperative model of regional security and is willing to work with all friendly countries towards that end. At the same time, India finds it pragmatic to hedge its bets just in case “worst case” scenarios begin to unfold and threaten its economic development or territorial integrity.

Defence diplomacy, which includes military exercises and maritime cooperation, is a potent foreign policy tool and a viable instrument for promoting national interests.

In recent years, the Indian armed forces have shed their hesitant approach to engage more widely with the armed forces of other friendly countries, but most endeavours are still essentially in the fields of training and visits.

The most notable engagement has been that with the US armed forces, especially the US Navy. However, there is still obviously a long way to go before the operations of both the navies in the Indian Ocean region can be truly harmonised in the common interest of the international community.

(The author is Director, Centre for Land Warfare Studies, New Delhi) August 2011

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gONLOOKER SUPPING WITH THE ENEMY A YEAR-LONG military-led investigation has concluded that US taxpayer money has been indirectly funneled to the Taliban under a $2.16-billion transportation contract that the United States has funded in part to promote Afghan businesses.

The unreleased investigation provides seemingly definitive evidence that corruption puts US transportation money into enemy hands, a finding consistent with previous inquiries carried out by Congress, other federal agencies and the military.

Yet US and Afghan efforts to address the problem have been

slow and ineffective. According to a summary of the investigation results, compiled in May and reviewed by The Washington Post, the military found “documented, credible evidence…of involvement in a criminal enterprise or support for the enemy” by four of the eight prime contractors. Investigators also cited cases of profiteering, money laundering and kickbacks to Afghan power brokers, government officials and police officers. Six of the companies were found to have been associated with “fraudulent paperwork and behavior”.

THE STEPHEN COHEN TAKE ON AFPAK THE UNITED STATES has failed to get South Asia right.

In India, the US was caught off guard by New Delhi’s refusal to revise legislation that would have permitted American firms to bid on projects in the immense nuclear market. This was followed by an Indian decision to exclude two American companies from the $10-billion competition for a multi-role combat aircraft. Both developments were crushing disappointments to those who had expected these deals to be the capstone of a new strategic partnership.

More broadly, in the case of India, Washington must moderate expectations: “New Delhi will not evolve into its new ally in Asia, like Japan. Our alliance with Pakistan will continue to stimulate Indian defence acquisitions from other suppliers — including Russia and Europe — as New Delhi will never want to rely on us to service their American equipment in case of a new conflict with Pakistan.” The same reasoning applies to the 2008 nuclear cooperation deal: it improved relations, but did not make India an ally.

New Delhi has a deep commitment to strategic autonomy, as indicated by its insistent use of the moderating prefix “natural” to describe its US relationship. In the end, India got what it needed from Washington, including recognition of its nuclear weapons program and support for its permanent membership on the United Nations’ Security Council, at little or no cost.

India is a friend, but not an ally.

Pakistan is an ally, but not a friend.

Afghanistan is everyone’s problem.

To pursue its interests in these three states, America needs to approach the region holistically, both in conceptual and organisational terms. With a new crew manning key positions on the ship of state, this is the best opportunity for a course correction.

CHINA’S ‘ADVICE’ TO INDIA: PART WITH JAPAN INDIA SHOULD part company with Japan in its quest for a seat in the United Nations Security Council if it expects China to back the proposal. This is what visiting Marxist leader Sitaram Yechury learnt in his discussions with Chinese leaders including State Councillor Dai Bingguo. “Dai said China has no objection to backing India provided we come out of Japan’s field. He said they have a lot of historical baggage with Japan,” Yechury told Indian

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journalists. Yechury also discussed the problem concerning issuance of visa for Chinese workers coming in large numbers to implement projects in India, which are being built by companies in China.

“They said it is the major Indian companies who want Chinese workers. I was surprised to hear that,” Yechury said. Chinese companies were forced to use their own employees to implement projects in time as there are severe penalties involved in project delays in India, Yechury was told by officials in Beijing.

August 2011

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O N L O O K E R SAUDIS UP THE NUCLEAR ANTE

QUIP METER “I don’t think there’s ever been a chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee who’s had as close a relationship with the Vice President who’s had as close a relationship with the President ... John can see the President any time he wants, but we have all three found that the best interlocutor is me.”

Joe Biden

John Kerry

US Vice President Joe Biden on John Kerry and Foreign Policy

“Pakistani people are suffering due to terrorism for the last 10 years. We experienced 7,485 bomb explosions out of which 3,800 were suicide bombings. More than 35,000 innocent Pakistanis have lost their precious lives in the war against terror”.

Pakistan Interior Minister Rehman Malik on Pakistan and terror

Rehman Malik

“Our interests align and our values converge. With its democratic traditions, India can inspire others to follow a similar path of openness and tolerance. India’s leadership has the potential to positively shape the future of the Asia-Pacific. We think that America and India share a fundamentally similar vision for the future of this region.”

Hilary Clinton

US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton on India’s place in the world

“Anders Behring Breivik is, as far as I can consider that, unfortunately, not insane. It would have made everything so much easier if he was. The image of the mad Knight Templar, drugged on steroids, is likely to sell newspapers. It had created a comfortable distance between him and us if it were so. But nothing I Peter Svaar know about him from the years I knew him, or what I have since read in his so-called manifesto, suggests that he Anders Behring Breivik is crazy or disturbed”.

Norwegian journalist Peter Svaar on Anders Behring Breivik with whom he went to school

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FEARFUL THAT he will soon face a nuclear-armed Iran, Saudi Arabia’s Prince Turki al-Faisal recently warned that the Saudi Kingdom would have no choice but to develop its own nuclear weapons, a move he said would lead to “untold and possibly dramatic consequences.”

So, the remarks by al-Faisal — a former Saudi intelligence official — simply echo that espoused by Saudi King Abdullah in 2006 when he said that if Iran ever developed nuclear weapons, “everyone in the region would, including Saudi Arabia”.

However, with Iran now edging ever closer to acquiring its own nuclear weapons, it appears the Saudis have actually begun laying the groundwork for a similar pursuit.

For example, in April 2011, the Saudis purchased from China advanced ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. One of the missiles, the DF-21, can carry a 500kT nuclear warhead over 1,800 kilometres.

Moreover, in June 2011, the Saudi government announced a $300 billion plan to build 16 nuclear reactors over the next 20 years. While the Saudis have long been looking to develop a civilian nuclear programme to meet its increasing electricity demands — having recently signed nuclear cooperation agreements with both France and China — the acquisition of nuclear power plants is the first crucial step in the development of a nuclear weapons programme.

In order to quickly bridge the nuclear gap with Iran, the Saudis may be motivated to purchase or even rent a nuclear device or two from a willing seller. One likely broker is Pakistan, Saudi Arabia’s Sunni ally. To that end, a recent report surfaced that Saudi Arabia — long suspected of contributing to Pakistan’s nuclear programme — has already arranged for the use of two Pakistani nuclear bombs or guided-missile warheads.

However, given Pakistan’s recent dalliance with the Islamist Republic, the Pakistanis may prove to be less of a reliable option for the Saudis. Despite last-minute appeals from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan’s President, Asif Ali Zardari, has twice in the last month made visits to Tehran to meet with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. In both instances, Zardari has praised Iran as both a “natural ally” and “important friend” of Pakistan in the region.

August 2011

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g GEOPOLITICS

SPECIALREPORT

THE HEADLEY EFFECT

Pakistani terrorist David Headley’s recent confessions that his colleagues in Pakistan could attack India’s nuclear installations should raise alarms as to whether our nuclear facilities are secure. Can India protect its nuclear facilities against increased threats of such covert attacks, asks TANVI KULKARNI

M

AY 2011 saw some extraordinary events — from President Obama’s announcement of Osama bin Laden’s death to the murder of Pakistani journalist Saleem Shahzad. It could be rightly deemed a month full of shockers and grippers. Of specific consequence to India was the Tahawwur Hussein Rana trial in the Chicago court. Rana was co-accused with David Coleman Headley for the plotting of the 2008 Mumbai terror attacks but was acquitted of that charge on 9 June. Besides re-establishing the intertwining threads of Pakistan and terrorism and questioning the safety and security of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, the disclosures in Chicago beg a serious reading into the security of even India’s nuclear assets, without of course making a brouhaha of it.

As revelations poured in from the Tahawwur Rana trials in Chicago, the deeprooted links of the al-Qaeda and LeT with Pakistan’s Army and Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) became clearer; so did the loopholes in the intelligence and security mechanisms both within the US and India. From IN THE CROSS HAIRS: Headley told the NIA that Major Iqbal asked him to conduct a recce of the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre www.geopolitics.in

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August 2011

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g SPECIALREPORT what has been gathered in the form of confessions, documents and photographs, it has been revealed that David Headley, as part of his assignment, had to collect information about nuclear installations in India. Headley told the Indian National Investigation Agency (NIA) last year that in May 2008, on one of his visits to Mumbai, his ISI handler, Major Iqbal asked him to conduct a recce of the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC) which could be used “as a target”. This was supposedly to have been a part of the larger Karachi Project of the ISI and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), designed and developed with the objective of ‘destabilising India’. Unsealed documents including video shots and photographs exhibited in the Chicago Court this May have been used to substantiate this confession. The Lashkar-e-Taiba-trained Headley is said to have monitored the entry and exit points of BARC’s residential colony Anushaktinagar, the movement of its employees and quite possibly also the cold storage plant in the complex. These insights have rightly, although belatedly, raised concerns about the security of India’s nuclear installations.

In India, the paramilitary Central Industrial Security Force (CISF) is entrusted with

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SABOTAGE AND SUBVERSION TACTICS REMAIN THE CLASSIC VERSIONS OF NUCLEAR TERRORISM the responsibility of guarding nuclear installations. At present, the CISF guards 14 of India’s 27 nuclear facilities, including the BARC. The Government of India and the Nuclear Power Council of India Limited (NPCIL) have shown immense confidence in the commitment and capability of the force to protect the country’s sensitive nuclear infrastructure and have also made public statements to the effect. The CISF holds regular meetings with the Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) and NPCIL to review its security mechanisms. The disclosures of Headley and Rana trials prompted the government and security agencies to indicate that they are high on vigilance; in fact, the recent CISF review meeting with the DAE at the end of April was aimed also to settle the disturbed public mood.

The Government of India claims an excellent record in the safety, security and management of the country’s nuclear industrial capacities. In February 2009, the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) of India released the ‘National Disaster Management Guidelines — Management of Nuclear and Radiological Emergencies’. The document acknowledges the gravity of the threat posed by a sabotage attempt, but confirms the ‘elaborate physical security arrangements in place’ at all of India’s nuclear power plants. These include state-ofthe-art structural designs for all nuclear reactors that have been quipped with automatic safe-shutdown mechanisms that prevent the leak of radioactivity in case of physical attack or breach of security. Also, all nuclear plants are kept perpetually at a level of radiation exposure ‘as low as reasonably possible’ (ALARA). All these principally concern with nuclear safety (prevention of accidents that could cause radiation leakage and exposure causing harm to human health and environment) which, for nomenclature’s sake, needs to be distinguished from nuclear security.

There is one caveat that the NDMA guideline document mentions — the possibility of

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an outsider carrying out a physical attack on a facility with insider assistance. Even this it says is detectable. This takes one back to a previous sabotage attempt at the Kaiga nuclear plant in November 2009, which was confirmed to be the doing of a disgruntled employee. Cases of nuclear facility-related accidents in India can be counted on fingers.

And although these are kept on record by official as well as private agencies, the success has largely been that of keeping the public domain away from panic that these events could have caused.

The point here, however, is not to use the developments in Chicago to judge whether an agency like CISF is adequately equipped with safeguarding nuclear installations in India or if the disaster management mechanisms of Indian nuclear reactors are up to the mark. Nor can the developments justifiably assess the shortcomings of India’s security enforcement. Seen from the larger perspective, the situation makes a case against the practicability of nuclear deterrence itself.

Nuclear deterrence was never meant to deter covert sub-conventional terrorist attacks like sabotage. How does a country then protect its nuclear installations against increased threats of such attacks?

In the wake of heightened fears of the insecurity of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, there is an increasing tendency to analyse nuclear terrorism only in its worst-case scenarios — nuclear weapons falling in the hands of terrorists, although some experts discount this possibility by questioning not the capability, but the intent of terrorists to ‘use’ nuclear devices. Sabotage and subversion tactics remain the classic and perhaps simplest versions of nuclear terrorism. Whether Headley’s data was meant to feed information to the ISI and LeT, design an act of sabotage, or cause an actual bomb explosion in the BARC residential complex can only be speculated. The possibility that such an act would even have been executed is a matter of conjecture. The point to be stressed here is that the nature of ‘nuclear threats’ to India is moving increasingly from conventional to sub-conventional threats. Media reports of the NIA investigation and the Rana trial gather that Headley submitted his BARC assignment to Major Iqbal and not to the LeT. To the ISI and the Pakistan Army, sabotage serves as a better ‘shoot-and-scoot’ strategy than even the Nasr tactical missiles, whose usability and utility could still be doubted. India, with its nuclear weapons, is not equipped to deter such threats.

NIA’s investigations also disclosed that Rana reminded Headley of an Indo-Pak August 2011

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g SPECIALREPORT

SOFT TARGET: Headley (Inset) is said to have monitored the entry and exit points of Anushaktinagar, BARC's residential colony agreement that forbids both countries from attacking the other’s nuclear installations.

This refers to the bilateral India-Pakistan agreement of December 1988, which provides for “refraining from undertaking, encouraging, or participating in, directly or indirectly, any action aimed at causing destruction or damage to any nuclear installation or facility in each country” and “requires each party to inform the other of the precise locations (latitude and longitude) of installations and facilities…” Terrorists can now believe with a degree of certainty that India would link, directly or indirectly, a sabotage attack on its nuclear facility to the Pakistani ISI or military; but to assume that such an eventuality would necessarily have a connection with the two establishments in Pakistan is unhelpful so long as their close dynamics with the terrorist organisations are not internationally exposed, ascertained and condemned. What happens in a scenario where a disgruntled terrorist group decides to punish Pakistan by escalating nuclear tensions with India?

Arguments about physical security of nuclear facilities against acts of sabotage have to resonate with reasonableness. BARC, being one of India’s most crucial nuclear www.geopolitics.in

NUCLEAR DETERRENCE WAS NOT MEANT TO DETER SUBCONVENTIONAL TERRORIST ATTACKS facilities, has been known to be on the target list of terrorist organisations like LeT and Jaish-e-Mohammed as well as of the ISI, for a long time. In the absence of an actual attack, the constant threats posed by these groups, results in them no longer being considered penultimate. But, terrorists are known to play on a different set of principles — fear and chaos. And a threat, however incredible, is enough to keep the security of our nuclear installations on tenterhooks. High standards of border control, coastal security, intelligence gathering and assessment, surveillance and early warning signals play a crucial role apart from disaster management,

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mitigation and preparedness levels. Moreover, a clear distinction must be made between the different acts of nuclear terrorism. Nuclear security is much more than safeguarding nuclear material against the threat of terrorists stealing them away.

Headley’s confessions should raise alarms about how the ISI and Pakistan-backed terrorist groups in the region would now choose to operate vis-à-vis India’s nuclear prowess. While our nuclear weapons threaten our adversaries against striking us with weapons of mass destruction, the enemy has the option of changing strategy to target Indian nuclear installations. This constitutes an attack on the Indian territory causing the much-intended fear-psychosis. The slightest sign of success in managing such an act of nuclear terrorism would shake the existing security environment. Can India protect its nuclear facilities against increased threats of such covert attacks? Although security mechanisms could be pulled up to their strictest levels, the threat can at best be countered and not prevented. No level of safety is absolutely safe.

(The author is a Research Officer, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi) August 2011

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DEF BIZ LOOKING FOR A TRAINER

Will Pilatus PC-7 boost the morale of our fighter pilots?

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NAVY TO PROCURE `10,000 CR FOR KARWAR NAVAL BASE EXPANSION MULTI-ROLE CHOPPERS

AUGMENTING ITS fleet of multi-role helicopters, the Navy is looking to procure more such choppers for carrying out antisubmarine warfare and Special Forces’ operations.

In a Request for Information (RFI) issued recently, the Navy has said it intends to procure new Naval Multi-Role Helicopters (NMRH) for anti-submarine, anti-surface and special commando operations roles.

The Navy has shown its intent to procure these choppers at a time when it is already planning to start the trials for buying 16 MRHs from the two contenders Sikorsky S-70B and European NH-90 next month under a separate tender.

Navy officials have said that the earlier tender process will continue and the trials would be carried out as per the original schedule.

In its requirement for the next batch of helicopters, the Navy stated that the basic chopper for performing all the specified roles should be same with common airframe, engines, avionics and it should be capable of changing roles with ease.

“The NMRH should be of contemporary design with modern, reliable and fuel-efficient engines and fully-integrated advanced avionics and weapons suite employing the latest concepts for detection, identification, classification of surface and subsurface targets along with the ability to detect air targets,” it said in the RFI document.

The Navy also wants the choppers to have air-to-air refuelling capability for enhanced endurance and reach.

The vendors taking part in the contract will also be required to invest back at least 30 per cent of the worth of the contract as offsets into the Indian defence, civilian aerospace or the homeland security sectors.

Possible contenders for the deal include NH-90, Sikorsky and Lockheed Martin’s MH-60 Romeo, which was not selected for the early tender as it was being offered through the Foreign Military Sales route.

The Navy at present relies on its fleet of Sea King helicopters, which were inducted in two different phases in the 80s.

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INDIA IS finally getting ready to spend around `10,000 crore on the proposed major expansion of the strategic Karwar naval base in coastal Karnataka. Aircraft carrier INS Vikramaditya (the refurbished Admiral Gorshkov), Scorpene attack submarines and other frontline warships will be based there in the future.

This comes at a time when India is faced with the likelihood of Chinese warships using the Gwadar deep-sea port in Pakistan, which it helped build in the last decade, in the years ahead.

Karwar is India’s third major naval base after Mumbai and Visakhapatnam on the east coast.

After some delay, the Defence Ministry has prepared a “note” for the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) on Phase-IIA of ‘Project Seabird’ at Karwar after fine-tuning a detailed project report (DPR).

The Navy will be able to base 27 major warships at Karwar after completion of Phase-IIA. Project Seabird has been dogged by long delays, fund crunches and truncated clearances since it was first approved in 1985 at an initial cost of `350 crore. Phase-I, completed at a cost of `2,629 crore, has enabled the Navy to base 11 warships and 10 yardcraft at Karwar.

Under Phase-II, Karwar will get an airbase, armament depot, dockyard complex and missile silos, apart from additional jetties, berthing and anchorage facilities. The eventual aim is to base 50 major warships at Karwar after Phase-IIB is completed.

Karwar will not only decongest the over-crowded Mumbai harbour, though the naval dockyard there will continue to house some warships, but it will also provide India with much-needed strategic depth and operational flexibility.

With the Navy moving towards operating two carrier battle groups centered around the 44,570-tonne INS Vikramaditya and the 40,000-tonne indigenous aircraft carrier by 2015, the Karwar base is critical for its blue-water operations in the Indian Ocean and beyond.

August 2011

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g INDO-RUSSIA JV TO SERVICE TALWAR FRIGATES ROSOBORONSERVICE INDIA Ltd (ROS-I) has made a proposal to the Indian Navy to render the guarantee-period after-sales service to the three new Talwarclass stealth frigates currently under construction at the Yantar shipyard at Kaliningrad in Russia.

ROS(I) is a JV formed through a strategic alliance between eight worldrenowned original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) of defence equipment from Russia and Krasny Marine Services Pvt Ltd as the sole Indian partner. It was created by a Russian presidential decree to render aftersales service to all Russian origin assets of the Indian Navy in 2005.

Under a standard company practice, ROS(I) will engage a number of ex-Indian Navy specialists to undertake the after-sales service, thereby ensuring retention of talent and availability of trained, experienced manpower to the Indian Navy.

The three Talwar-class ships currently being built are the Teg, the Tarkash and the Trikand. All three will carry the supersonic BrahMos missile system. They would also be armed with advanced Shtil-1 surface-to-air missiles, 100 mm artillery guns and other equipment, as also a deck-based Kamov KA-31 helicopter. The frigates, with a top speed of about 30 knots, are powered by twin-shaft gas-turbines and fitted with the state-of-the-art navigation, communication, anti-submarine and electronic warfare equipment.

Earlier, Russia had built INS Talwar, INS Trishul and INS Tabar at the Balitiisky Zavod shipyard in St Petersburg.

Significant among the MoU partners of ROS(I) are Baltitsky Zavod, the builder of the Talwar-class stealth frigates; Zvyozdochka, the leading shipyard that undertook refit and modification of Kilo-class submarines of the Indian Navy; OKB Novator, designer of missiles; and leading aircraft manufacturers Kamov and Illyushin.

US MAY LAND DEAL FOR RE-ENGINING JAGUAR THE US is likely to be the prime beneficiary of yet another lucrative military contract, after the Defence Ministry withdrew its commercial tender for the reengining of the Indian Air Force’s Jaguar deep penetration strike aircraft last month.

New Delhi is likely to proceed, through the Foreign Military Sales route as the existing defence policy does not allow procurement from a single vendor.

The latest development is likely to propel the US-based diversified conglomerate Honeywell, which was one of the two vendors invited to supply new engines, as the prime contractor for the new engines, especially after British engine-maker Rolls-Royce pulled out of the competition in March 2011. The tender for the re-engining of the Jaguar aircraft, which was cancelled by South Block recently, has been estimated at $670 million, and calls for the supply of between 200 and 250 engines.

RAYTHEON IN $23-MILLION DEAL FOR AIR TRAFFIC UPGRADE RADARS AND missiles major Raytheon has bagged a $23.2-million contract from Tata Power Strategic Electronic Systems in a programme to automate air traffic management systems of the Indian Air Force.

The contract is part of the IAF’s project for modernisation of its airfield infrastructure (MAFI). The project aims to make all IAF air bases capable of handling all

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types of modern transport and fighter aircraft at all times. Tata Power Strategic Electronic Systems is the prime contractor of the project, which is undertaking the programme to upgrade 30 airbases of IAF in the first phase of the project.

Raytheon also has tie-ups in India with L&T and BEL, and is eyeing a bigger presence in India in the long term.

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INDIA MAY BUY 45 P&W ENGINES INDIA IS expected to purchase approximately 45 engines, including five spares, from Pratt & Whitney to power the 10 C-17 Globemaster IIIs from Boeing.

Each Boeing C-17 military aircraft is powered by four Pratt & Whitney F117-PW-100 engines and with spares. As stated by Boeing and the White House, this trade agreement is valued at approximately $4.1 billion and supports

an estimated 22,160 jobs in the US, including thousands in Connecticut.

Once the agreement is fulfilled, the Indian Air Force will be the owner and operator of the largest fleet of C-17s outside of the United States.

India has formally approved an agreement to purchase 10 C-17 Globemaster III military aircraft, powered by Pratt

NEW MARITIME AIRCRAFT FOR COAST GUARD

INDIA TO GET US-MADE TORPEDOES

THE INDIAN Coast Guard is planning to procure six Multi-Mission Maritime Aircraft for enhancing surveillance in coastal areas and country’s exclusive economic zone.

The sea-guarding force has expressed its intent to procure these aircraft soon after it suspended its over two-year-long tender process for acquiring an equal number of Medium Range Maritime Reconnaissance (MRMR) aircraft.

Initial steps for the acquisition process have already been taken and the global tender for procuring these aircraft would be issued soon.

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INDIA WILL get lightweight anti-submarines torpedoes to arm the eight P-8I maritime patrol aircraft it is buying from the US, with the Obama administration notifying the potential sale to the US Congress recently.

The news was welcomed by the US embassy in New Delhi, which said the sale of Mk-54 torpedoes reflected the mutual benefits of the India-US security relationship.

The Pentagon has “officially notified” the potential sale of Mk-54 lightweight torpedoes to the Indian Navy.

The Mk-54 is the most advanced lightweight torpedo in the US Navy inventory and is intended to be employed with the P-8I maritime patrol aircraft, eight of which are currently under construction for India by US aerospace major Boeing.

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CCS APPROVES MIRAGE 2000 UPGRADE DEAL AFTER LONG deliberations Cabinet Committee on Security has finally approved the Mirage 2000 upgrade deal. The $2.5-billion deal (`11,250 crore) to upgrade 51 Mirage 2000 fighter planes will equip the Dassault fighter bought in mid-1980s, with new avionics, missiles, radars, electronic warfare suites, glass cockpits and helmet-mounted displays sensors. The upgradation will be done by French defence firms Dassault Aviation, Thales and MBDA. The deal will also have 30 per cent offset obligation.

The deal also includes the investment in the Hindustan Aeronautical Laboratory facility.

The first two aircraft will be

upgraded in France and the rest of it will be done at a facility in HAL, which is expected to take them around nine years. This programme is crucial for IAF as it is losing its combat strength with depleting fighter squadron.

The sanctioned strength for IAF is 39 squadrons which has, come down to 34. The upgradation will add another 20 years of life to the fighters. At present, Mirage 2000 is the second mostpotent aircraft in India after Sukhoi 30MKI.

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IAF’S SWISS TRAINER: The PC-7 itself has an impressive record of around 500 aircraft sold to more than 20 consumers internationally

IAF’S HUNT FOR

TRAINER AIRCRAFT

With the delay in the operationalisation of intermediate jet trainer (IJT) “Sitara”, the Indian Air Force seems keen on procuring Swiss Pilatus PC-7 II. However, it is time for India’s aerospace industry to deliver, says SAURAV JHA

T

RAINING AIRCRAFT, though seemingly innocuous, form the backbone of any manned air force. Unfortunately, the Indian Air Force (IAF) has had a rather poor record in this sphere with its inability to recapitalise its training fleet on time. In fact, the service was roundly criticised by the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) in a 2008 report that attributed the IAF’s inability to graduate enough efficient pilots

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to a discontinuity in training programmes, itself caused by a lack of contemporary training aircraft.

Against this background, the IAF finally seems to be moving quickly to fix the situation, with the Pilatus PC-7 emerging as the lowest bidder in the multi-vendor tender to procure basic turboprop trainers — the category of training aircraft facing the most acute crisis, given that the existing Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) HPT-32 Deepak is all but ready

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to be name-plated. The service has also moved forward on preparing the stage to bring in the indigenous HAL HJT-36 Sitara, an intermediate jet trainer (IJT), and is on a tender to purchase almost two hundred microlights. As is the case with almost every Indian defense procurement initiative, hiccups do remain, but the IAF seems determined to power over them.

By the middle of the last decade, it had become painfully obvious to the IAF that its August 2011

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g DEFBIZ basic trainer aircraft (Stage-I), the HAL HPT32 Deepak, had become rather long in the tooth and needed urgent replacement. Crashes and mechanical failures were accelerating even as the state-owned aerospace major HAL’s proposal to build a replacement was being considered. However, a 2009 crash that led to the death of two experienced instructors at the Air Force Academy (AFA) at Hyderabad convinced the IAF that the process to find a replacement had to be expedited. In a bid to exert pressure on the government to accept its proposal that an initial tranche of Stage1trainers be imported even as HAL went ahead on a parallel track with an indigenous solution, the IAF grounded its entire fleet of 125 HPT-32s. The HPT-32 fleet since then remains grounded and is expected to be phased out by 2013-14.

As a result, an entire batch of IAF trainee pilots has graduated without the basic 24week training on the HPT-32 Deepak piston engine aircraft. Instead, the pilots have been proceeding to Stage-2 (intermediate) training HJT-16 Kiran trainers onwards to Stage-3 (advanced) training on the recently inducted Hawks. The reason that has been put forward is that Stage-I training has now been merged with Stage-2 and the Kiran being used for both.

In any case, the move to ground the Deepak did the trick for the IAF, which was allowed to issue a Request for Information (RFI) to international vendors in late 2009. By March 17, 2010 six international contenders had replied to that RFI and technical trials commenced with six aircraft in the fray: Grob’s G-120 TP, Embraer’s EMB-312 Super Tucano, Alenia Aeromacchi’s M-311, Hawker Beechcraft’s T-6C Texan-II , Korean Aerospace Industries

CAG CRITICISED IAF FOR AN INABILITY TO GRADUATE PILOTS DUE TO LACK OF MODERN TRAINING AIRCRAFT (KAI’s) KT-1 Woongbi and, of course, the Pilatus PC-7 II. The technical evaluation of the bidders ended in May this year followed by the financial evaluation of three aircraft that made the shortlist: the T-6C, the KT-1 and the PC7 Mark II. Among these, the PC-7 Mark II emerged as the lowest bidder and the T-6C the highest. In June, the IAF chief while identifying Pilatus as the lowest bidder and thereby the automatic winner, announced that commercial negotiations with the company had begun.

The PC-7 Mk II is incidentally a derivative of Pilatus’s PC-7 and PC-9 single-engine turboprop training aircraft. It has the PC-9’s airframe and avionics, while incorporating the PC-7’s wings. It uses a Pratt & Whitney Canada PT6A-25C turboprop engine that, although providing less power than the PC-9’s engine, is claimed to be more efficient in terms of operational and maintenance requirements. The PC-7 itself has a rather impressive record of around 500 aircraft sold to more than 20 consumers internationally

optimised for a varied range of configurations.

The tender for the basic trainer stipulates that 75 trainers are to be procured offthe-shelf from the vendor. The winner will also be required to deliver an initial batch of a dozen aircraft within two years of firming up the deal. Another 106 aircraft will be procured from HAL, which will, in the interim, complete the design and manufacture of an indigenous solution, presumably with support from the selected overseas vendor. The entire deal is estimated to cost $1 billion. The chosen aircraft must serve the IAF for a period of at least 30 years.

HAL’s solution, has been named as the HTT-40 and a model was unveiled at this year’s Aero India in February. The HTT-40, as per current specifications, will have an 11m (36ft) wing span, a fuselage length of 11.3m and a maximum take-off weight of 2,800kg (6,170lb). Furthermore, it will be capable of flying at a maximum speed of 243kt (450km/h) and at altitudes up to 19,700ft.

It is a rarity now that a multi-vendor contract be sewn up without any “aggrieved” party whatsoever. And so it was, with this tender as well, when serious allegations about discrepancies in the procurement process were raised by the second lowest bidder — KAI. The Koreans raised doubts about the validity of the commercial documents submitted by Pilatus, deeming them incomplete and also said that transfer of technology had not been factored into the bidding price.

DIVING TO ATTACK: The KT-1 Woongbi, whose makers Korean Aerospace Industries, levelled serious allegations about discrepancies in the procurement process

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g DEFBIZ The IAF, however, seems unmoved by all this and is pushing ahead in its commercial negotiations with Pilatus. It actually seems to be getting ready to send some of its young pilots to Switzerland for training, once the contact is signed. The IAF wanted to keep this particular contract as simple as possible, which is why the request for proposal (RFP) did not mention any license production arrangement.

Cost is the deciding factor and the IAF kept its requirements rather basic for this initial tranche. This allowed Pilatus to pull a coup of sorts, which surprised its rivals by offering the PC-7 Mark II rather than the much more advanced and expensive PC-21. Prudent product positioning thereby won the day for Pilatus, which managed to enter an aircraft, which though cheaper than its rivals, still manages to meet the IAF’s requirements.

Now even as the IAF sorts out the Stage-1 trainer issue, the fact remains that the Kirans need to be retired as well. Unfortunately, however, every time the HJT-36 Sitara moves closer to securing a major milestone, something or the other occurs to set things back.

For instance, on the sidelines of Aero India 2011, it was announced that the HJT-36 would attain Initial Operational Clearance (IOC) by June this year. However in April, a prototype of the Sitara crashed during a routine test flight over a sparsely populated area in Tamil Nadu and at the moment, the exact date for IOC remains unclear.

This latest incident comes on the back of the fact that the HJT-36 is already delayed because of the need to replace the design’s

PROBLEMS WITH THE TRAINING FLEET ARE ALSO DUE TO IAF’S LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN HAL original Snecma Larzac 04H20 engine with an NPO Saturn 55I powerplant. The programme also slipped following an accident which damaged a prototype aircraft, during the Aero India show in 2007. This was subsequently returned to flight status.

Nevertheless the HAL has initiated what it calls a ‘critical phase’ in the IJT programme by issuing bids to weaponise the aircraft. Spin recovery tests, absolutely mandatory for IOC certification are also underway. In fact, it is, probably during one of these tests that the Sitara prototype crashed.

HAL says that it hopes that the Sitara will attain final operational clearance (FOC) in 2013. The IAF has ordered over 70 aircraft in the initial phase but this will probably grow to more than 220 in the years to come. However, the fact remains that HAL will have to move up the schedule because as things stand as of date, the IAF is likely to temporarily dismantle the Surya Kiran

Aerobatic Team in order to make enough Kirans available for meeting the added demand of Stage-I training of pilots. .

Even as it moves ahead on Stage-I and Stage-2 replacement, the IAF is also looking to recapitalise one of the lightest segments of its manned fleet - microlights. The Ministry of Defence (MoD) issued RFPs to both domestic and international manufacturers for some 194 microlight aircraft in March this year. These aircraft will be used for training and research purposes. Out of the 194 being sought for purchase, 110 will be used by the National Cadet Corps, 72 will augment the IAF directly, and 12 will go to the Indian Navy.

The procurement process has to be completed within the next five years, even though some very strict selection criteria have been outlined.

The IAF’s problems with its training fleet are in no small measure due to its lack of confidence in some of the capabilities of HAL. The HPT-32 for instance was revealed to have design flaws and that is probably why the IAF had rejected the follow-on HTT-34 proposed by HAL in the late eighties. In fact, if the HTT-34 had been a winsome choice, the situation may have been very different today. Recurrent delays with the HJT-36 also do not exactly let HAL curry favour with the IAF. On the other hand, the IAF too must take some of the blame, since it took decades to finalise an Advanced Jet Trainer. At the end of the day, trainer aircraft are well within the reach of India’s aerospace prowess, as has been demonstrated in the past and prudent planning must ensure that the current saga is never repeated.

AMERICAN CONTENDER: Hawker Beechcraft’s T-6 trainer has been used to train pilots and navigators from approximately 20 different countries

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“THE CHALLENGE IS IN EXECUTION” Though a private conglomerate, the Mahindra Group has always had a significant interest in the defence sector. From being a traditional supplier of transport vehicles to the armed forces, it is now all set to provide the entire range of light combat and armoured vehicles and derivatives. Khutub Hai, Chief Executive of Mahindra Defence Systems, spoke to Rohit Srivastava about the expansion strategy of the company. Excerpts: ON THE EXISTING PRODUCTS AND THEIR MARKET SHARE If you go through the recent order you will find that the Ministry of Defence (MoD) is going slow.

“Request for Proposals” (RFPs) have come out and after trials, have also been withdrawn.

There were three major tenders, first for 817 light bulletproof vehicles, second, light special purpose vehicle which, went through trial and later the tender was withdrawn and the light strike vehicle for special forces. These are three major programmes that are yet to culminate. The trials were no-commitment programmes. There is a huge www.geopolitics.in

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g INTERVIEW cost involved in the production of these vehicles. RFPs for these programmes are going to come out again. We are waiting for the next round.

On the other hand, we are getting steady orders from the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) and state police. We have orders of around 300 vehicles, including unarmoured vehicles and armoured vehicles. We dominate the armoured vehicles market with 85 per cent of the market share. We improved our products and are improving the production-system and our production capacity has doubled.

We were the first Indian company to get orders for Mine Protected Vehicles (MPVs).

We have a joint venture with BAE systems called Defence Land System India. Our armoured vehicles and MPVs all are manufactured under the JV company with BAE. This JV is also focusing on artillery guns We have full technology transfers from BAE systems. In our industry, we are the first one to get full technology transfer from any foreign company. Our MPV is one of the most-heavily protected vehicles. We have a trial order for six vehicles from Jharkhand police. We have been talking with various police forces (to try out the vehicles)… wherever there is a possibility. There is a possibility of around 200-300 orders from the MHA. Wherever you go troops are seen suffering due to the improvised explosive devices. It is one of the major causes for casualties. It is high time the government gave them the ability to move relatively safely. I think casualties can be reduced by 90 per cent. Our MPV is state-of-the-art is capable of providing enough protection against a large explosion so that there are no casualties. Our vehicles come with proper papers like warranty and certificate of compliance.

ON FUTURE INFANTRY COMBAT VEHICLE (FICV) PROGRAMME The evaluation process by the MoD is complete. We hope they select in a month or two.

We are confident of our ability. We have two strategic partners — BAE with who we have a joint venture and Rafael, a leading defence company in the world, preferably for lethality and survivability. We are confident of delivering the product. We have the capability to do system integration and system engineering. We have added Bharat Electronics as an exclusive partner to deliver electronics for the FICV. Our FICV is modular and it has 70 per cent commonality between tracked and wheeled. It brings with it high-end mature and proven technology. As you are aware, the www.geopolitics.in

PROUD VISIONARIES: Mahindra Group’s CMD Anand Mahindra and Chief Executive of Mahindra Defence Systems Khutub Hai with Mahindra Marksman, an armoured capsule-based light vehicle volume will be around 2600 over 10 years. I have read in the media that the value is between $10 and 11billion.

This is the first make procedure of its kind in India. I think if we successfully deliver then it will change the face of the defence business in India.

What is important at present is to set up system-engineering and system-integration facilities. This is where the skill is not available today in India.

ON OFFSET OPPORTUNITY As a policy, we are not setting up business for offset. We believe if we have the capability, offsets will come. We have an engagement with Lockheed Martin about the C 130J. We would be providing simulated training and support services for C 130 J simulation operations. That is going to be ready some time next year.

ON FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT (FDI) IN THE DEFENCE SECTOR Mahindra is of the view that if you want foreign partners to bring high technology to India, then the foreign partner should have control over the technology. Secondly, the company must be rewarded for this in an appropriate way. We totally support the increase in FDI limit from 26 per cent to 49 per cent but not beyond 49 per cent. The control of companies should be in Indian hands.

There are no cogent reasons for not having 49 per cent of FDI. The control is in 51 per cent. I believe sooner than later this will happen.

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OTHER SISTER COMPANIES We plan to become a big player in defence.

As far as naval system is concerned, Mahindra Defence Naval Systems has a factory in Pune that manufactures sea mines, sea decoys, launchers, etc.

We are preparing to form a JV with a leading company. Our naval products are underwater systems and they are going to be operational definitely by Def-Expo, 2012.

Mahindra also has an aerospace subsidiary that concentrates on aero structure.

There is a possibility of our getting into the defence aerospace business.

In the United Arab Emirates (UAE), we have Mahindra Emirates Vehicle Armouring, a firm that has been operational since April 2011. It caters to the armour market of Middle East, Central Asia and Africa. The company does large volume armouring and its product profile is the same as that of Mahindra Defence System. Another area that we are focusing on is defence electronics and system integration, which is vital to the defence business. We hope to acquire this capability soon and a JV in this regard could well be announced by the end of this year.

ON DEFENCE PRODUCTION POLICY At the moment it is a statement of intent on the part of the government. I think the challenge is in its execution. I think that if they (the government) can make a success of the acquisition programme into “make or buy and make Indian”, then the defence production policy has a chance of getting rolled out in the manner they have perceived.

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INDESEC—INDIA’S PREMIER HOMELAND SECURITY MEET Leading suppliers from across the homeland security industry presented their latest innovations at INDESEC 2011, which provided an ideal setting for buyers to source equipment, operation and security systems, new technology and services.

A report by ROHIT SRIVASTAVA

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he Indian homeland security market is expected to expand from $8 billion (`36,800 crore) now to $13 billion (`59,800 crore) by 2014. This offers a significant opportunity for the private sector to participate.

INDESEC conference-cum-expo was organised by industry body ASSOCHAM and the Ministry of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises. According to experts assembled at the recently-held fourth edition of the meet, by 2018 the homeland security market is likely to be worth $ 16 billion (about `73,600 crore).

ASSOCHAM Secretary General DS Rawat pointed out that the homeland security sector employed more than 60 lakh workers and the number was projected to double in the next four to five years.

According to DR Kaarthikeyan, Chairman of INDESEC advisory board, “India, Britain, Germany and France will emerge as the largest players in the global homeland security market in the next ten years as opposed to the present situation where the United States continues to be a dominant player with nearly 35 per cent of total procurement.”

The three-day event, from June 20 to 22 June 2011, saw the presence of officials

from different internal security agencies.

The exhibitors also took advantage of the opportunity by providing demonstrations and detailed presentations to the experts and officials.

The show saw more than 100 exhibitors

from 25 countries participating in the meet.

The expo had some innovative products from Indian firms, which demonstrated that they had prepared well: in fact, there were many product launched from Indian defence firms for home land security solutions.

CRITICAL MEET: M Venkaiah Naidu, Chairman, Parliamentary Standing Committee on Home Affairs at the inauguration of INDESEC 2011

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g DEFBIZ One of the companies that exhibited products at INDESEC 2011 was Dafar International. Dafar has products from US, Europe and Australia, most of which are related to rescue and disaster management. These include solutions for air, water, underwater surveillance systems with live streaming video facility to provide rescue commanders to make right decision. Some of their products are manufactured in Europe, some in USA while some video cameras are from Taiwan.

THE LIFE GUARD This product was developed by the US Army after Desert Storm when there was a need to locate the enemy hiding in the mountains. Scientists came up with this system, which detects the presence of the human heartbeat. Heartbeats create a magnetic field which is picked up by the Life Guard. Apart from the military field, the product can also be used in for search and rescue. Police and law-enforcement officials can use the device to find people hiding in containers, vehicles, etc. In addition to being easy to operate, the innovative product can be used in diverse fields. It is a simple machine weighing less than a kilo.

The BSF and Railway Police have already bought this equipment for disaster

SILENT HUNTER: Capable of carrying sea mines, this underwater vehicle can move undetected by sonar and can operate for eight hours management and security purpose. Its range is 500 m and can penetrate walls. The US Navy used this during the Taiwan disaster. During disaster rescue, when a number of people are under debris, this device locates the closest person. More than eighty countries use this system and China alone has bought more than 700 units.

SEABOB BLACK SHADOW Capable of carrying sea mines and a lot of other equipment, this underwater vehicle can move undetected by sonar, as it is very small. Manufactured in Germany, this underwater vehicle is meant for the Navy, www.geopolitics.in

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Coast Guard and rescue teams. Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines, China and a number of other countries have bought this device. The battery-operated vehicle can run for eight hours with only three hours of recharging. It is fast and does not produce any bubbles so detection is very difficult. While Malaysia has bought 22 units, Vietnam and Taiwan have acquired 20 units each and China could probably opt for 400 units.

While the larger version can transport eight persons with arms, the smaller ones can carry three. Even the Indian armed forces have made inquiries about this innovative product.

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NUCLEAR WARHEADS EXPECTED TO BE STOCKPILED BY PAKISTAN IN THE next ten years. Pakistan has the world’s fastest-growing nuclear stockpile and it could achieve 150-200 warheads in a decade despite the political instability in the country, according to nuclear experts Hans M Kristensen and Robert S Norris.

Pakistan is in process of building two new plutonium production reactors and a new reprocessing facility to fabricate more nuclear weapons fuel, wrote the American scientists in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. In their paper, ‘Pakistan’s nuclear forces, 2011’, the authors estimate that if Pakistan’s expansion continues, its nuclear weapons stockpile could reach 150-200.

4.2

Courtesy: blog.chinesesession.com

MILLION CHINESE SECURITY GUARDS

WILL NOW start putting on a new type of uniform and badge. The new uniform, known as the “2011 Pattern Security Uniform”, was designed to make it easier for people to recognise security personnel. Chinese officials say adopting the new uniform is expected to further accelerate the standardisation of the security personnel in the country. In 1984, China’s first security service company was set up in Shenzhen, the country’s first special economic zone, and as of December 2010, the country had a total of 2,966 security service firms.

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HAVE BEEN requested by the Punjab government for the u p c o m i n g Assembly elections in the state.

The Punjab government was responding to a letter from the office of the Chief Electoral Officer (CEO) asking it about its requirements to hold the elections. The state government had come to the figure after an evaluation carried out by the Punjab Police. In the last Assembly election in 2007, the state government had received around 200 companies of paramilitary forces from the Centre. In the 2009 Lok Sabha elections too, it had got 198 companies, besides the state police force. According to a senior Punjab Police officer, around 60 per cent of the 72,000 state police force personnel will be put on election duty.

MORE ARJUN TANKS TO BE ORDERED

BY THE INDIAN ARMY

THE ORDER, which could be placed in late-2011 itself, will come as a huge boost to the Arjun production line at the Heavy Vehicles Factory at Avadi, on the outskirts of Chennai, as it was expected to be terminated due to a lack of interest shown by the Indian Army. So far, the Army has placed an order for 248 tanks of the Mark-I and Mark-II versions. The Mark-II version of the Arjun MBT is currently undergoing its critical summer trials in Pokhran, Rajasthan, conducted by the country’s nodal defence lab, DRDO, while the

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COMPANIES OF PARAMILITARY FORCES

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GRAMS MORE MEAT TO BE ALLOCATED TO INDIAN ARMY JAWANS DEPLOYED ABOVE 12,000 feet in addition to the present grant of 110 grams. At the initiative of Chief of the Army Staff, General VK Singh, the Army took up the issue of increasing the quota of mutton/chicken with Defence Minister AK Antony, who accorded the sanction.

Over the last few months, both Antony and Gen. Singh have visited forward areas in Jammu and Kashmir and the northeast where the terrain is rugged and the soldiers often work under extreme weather conditions. During his travels to border areas, the Minister made it a point to interact with soldiers and enquire about their living conditions and issues that would make them more comfortable while doing duty. Earlier, the government had accorded sanction to increase the scale of fruit and eggs for Junior Commissioned Officers and other ranks, and brought them at par with ration for officers. The government is working on a scheme to provide the troops with branded sports shoes instead of the age-old cloth canvas shoes.

winter trials are expected to take place later in the year. The defence research establishment expects to get new orders from the end-user — the Army — once the current trials conclude. The June trials have already seen the Arjun MBT Mark-II tested with a number of technical improvements, including command panoramic sight and uncooled thermal image. A further 40 technological improvements are to be tested, including a new transmission control system and new fuel tanks.

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CRORE ALLOCATED TO OVER 100 POLICE STATIONS IN THE maoist-hit areas in the country. The money will be spent on construction of new buildings, residential complex and to procure arms and communication equipment.

This was decided at a meeting of the Directors General of Police of nine Maoist-affected states convened by the Home Ministry. The Centre has also agreed to provide more helicopters to the states to help the state and paramilitary forces as well as night vision devices to police forces fighting the Naxals. The DGPs of Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Odisha, Bihar, West Bengal, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and others also agreed to work in tandem in their operations against the ultras, particularly along the inter-state borders, to get better results. The police chiefs also highlighted issues concerning needs of their respective forces and asked for more assistance from the Centre to modernise the state police forces to deal with the emerging threats.

The Home Minister took stock of the security situation in the Maoist-hit states and reviewed the steps taken to deal with them.

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14,000

BEING reserved by Pakistan who would be used FULLY- ARE against India in case of a war, according to a report in TRAINED The New York Times. The paper quoted an unidentiformer militant commander saying that PakKASHMIRI fied istan’s military was still training militants to carry out MILITANTS proxy wars in Kashmir and Afghanistan. The commander added that militant groups like the Lashkare-Taiba, Harkat-ul-Mujahideen and Hizbul Mujahideen were run by religious leaders, with the Pakistani military providing training, strategic planning and protection. On his part, Union Home Minister P Chidambaram said the reports suggesting that thousands of trained militants were waiting in Pakistan to sneak into Jammu and Kashmir were “highly exaggerated”. According to The New York Times the militants have been scattered throughout various camps across Pakistan.

Courtesy:vkb.isvg.org

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AK-47 RIFLES HAVE BEEN SUPPLIED

TO THE central armed police forces and state police organisations. The order for the assault rifles was placed in September last year and the supply of AK-47 rifles was completed by June 2011, according to the Home Ministry. The indigenous 5.56x45mm INSAS (Indian National Small Arms System) rifle has been the standard assault weapon for the Indian Army since the late 1990s, but the jawans using it in counter-insurgency operations find it ineffective. INSAS has a smaller caliber than the AK-47, which means it has less power. The soldiers also allege that while the INSAS is accurate it is not as rugged as the AK-47 used by terrorists. The sling often snaps while firing, and also obstructs the rifle’s sight.

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6,000

ADDITIONAL PARAMILITARY FORCES WERE SENT to Andhra Pradesh to deal with any untoward situation arising due to the Telangana agitation. The additional forces have been sent after there was no let-up in the ongoing agitation and concerns related to the law and order situation arising out of it. The fresh contingent will join the already deployed 4,000 personnel of the CRPF in the state for the same duty.

COMMANDOS INDUCTED

INTO KARNATAKA’S countplans to have a 300-man strong commando unit in er-terrorism response team. the state to counter an attack like 26/11. The newThe team ly inducted team would be is part of based in Bengaluru, and the Centre for Counter Terrorcan reach any part of the ism, meant to combat anticity within 30 minutes. In national elements, such as tercase of an emergency, the rorists and Maoists. Under the team would be sent to othguidance of Brigadier KA er parts of the state. The Muthanna, the commandos commandos would be were trained by the National Courtesy: mangalorean.com deployed in areas with high Security Guards at Manesar in Haryana and by concentration of IT and BT companies, besides Force One in Mumbai. The Karnataka government sensitive areas including coastal Karnataka.

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DEFBIZ FIGHT TO THE FINISH: The contenders in the LSV programme battle it out in the snowswept reaches of the Himalayas

LETHAL PUNCH FOR SPECIAL FORCES

After the aborted attempts in the past to get Light Strike Vehicles (LSVs) for the Special Forces, India has now issued fresh tenders. ROHIT SRIVASTAVA takes a peek into the Army’s Request for Information regarding this unique requirement

T

HIS JULY saw another attempt by the Ministry of Defence and the Indian Army to acquire a Light Strike Vehicle for the Special Forces. The whole process is being repeated after a year with the release of Request for Information (RFI).

According to the RFI, the LSV will be used www.geopolitics.in

as a “Fast Attack Vehicle for the PARA (Special Forces) to enhance the mobility and reach of the Special Forces in all types of terrain, with integral firepower, good cross-country mobility and stability”.

Sources suggest that the unique requirements of the Special Forces can’t be fulfilled by the existing vehicles. Therefore, to enhance

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their survivability and speed, the Special Forces require a cutting-edge top-of-the-line strike vehicle.

The Special Forces are trained to infiltrate the enemy area and sabotage important enemy installations. As per the Request for Information, “The LSV should be able to transport four people, including a driver, August 2011

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g DEFBIZ with a full combat load of personal weapons and space for carriage of in-service radio sets, spare ammunition, water and fuel.”

The Request for Information calls for the vehicle to be light enough to be carried within the Mi17/ Mi17 (1V) helicopters. The specification also suggests that the vehicle should be transportable and be hardy enough to be para-dropped by IL-76 and An-32 transport aircraft. To keep the vehicle transportable with future air assets, the RFI has specified for the vehicle to be transportable by any other

strategic, tactical or medium transport aircraft. The maximum weight of the vehicle, including the minimum 950 kg of payload should not exceed the 3000 kg, which is the, maximum weight that Mi17s can carry.

The LSV, which will be operating inside enemy territory or behind enemy lines in a war, has to be able to defend itself against the enemy. The survival of the team depends upon two things — first is speed and its ability to negotiate the terrain and the second is fire power.

The RFI is looking for the LSV that has lethal strike capability. It created in a way

Other requirements of the Light Strike Vehicle (LSV) RFI Dimensions: Length Width Height Range Speed Tyres Suspension Self-Recovery Gradient Angle of Approach and Departure Turning Circle Diameter Ground Clearance Operating Temperature Max Operating Altitude Fording Capability Fuel Tank Capacity Vehicle should be provided with

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: Not more than 4.7m, : Not more than 2.1m : Not more than 1.65m : Not less than 400 km on highways : Max speed not less than 110 kmph on highways : Tubeless tyres : Independent suspension and a four-wheel drive : Self-recovery along with 50m wire/synthetic rope length. : Vehicle should be capable of negotiating a vertical and tilt slope of not less than 25 degrees and a vertical step of minimum 30 cm : Not less than 25° and angle of departure of not less than 20° : Not more than 14 m : More than 250 mm under the lowest part of the vehicle : -10°C to +45°C : Between 9000 ft and 15000 ft MSL. : Should not be less than 200 mm. : Not less than 50 ltrs. : Jack for lifting the vehicle for change of tyres, two jerrycans (20 litres each for fuel), one jerrycan (five litre for oil) two jerrycans (20 litres for water) and a first aid box.

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that at the co-driver’s seat, one can handle a “weapon mount capable of firing a 7.62mm general purpose machine gun with minimum frontal arc of 120 degrees”. At the rear, the vehicle is expected to have Milan antitank guided missiles, a .50/12.7 heavymachine gun and an automatic grenade launcher.

This is not the first time that the RFI for a Light Strike Vehicle has come up. On a previous occasion the acquisition programme had proceeded till the trials stage. There were three contenders in the tryout: Mahindra Defence System, Ordnance Factory Board

(OFB) and Singapore Technology. The deal did not go through as Singapore Technology and the OFB’s Russian collaborator were banned. Thus, the deal became a single-vendor situation and got scrapped. In response to our query, ST Kinetic has said, “We would also like to inform you that as per the statements made by the Government of India in Parliament, ST Kinetics has not been blacklisted. As this is only the RFI, STK has not decided whether to participate or not.” OFB did not respond to our query.

It will be worth watching how a similar situation will be avoided this time round. The only company from the last tender is Mahindra, which has a quality product on offer.

Although the tender is only at the RFI level, and still has a long way to go, the picture will be clearer in the next few months.

The important question is whether India can afford to be lackadaisical in its approach towards small purchases for vital operations.

There have been suggestions about a singlevendor purchase from a private Indian company if it fulfill the requirements. After all, the government does go through the single-vendor way in case of products from a defence public sector unit, even if the product is procured from a foreign country.

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THE CDS CHIMERA Given the inter-services differences over the creation of the post of Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), RAJ MEHTA suggests a constitutionally-enabled road map to find a consensus on the issue

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Working with the Government is like spinning your wheels in the sand — Louis Thiess

C

APT BH Liddell Hart, the renowned British military thinker-strategist wrote presciently that ‘History is a catalogue of mistakes and it is our duty to profit by them’.

India has made its full quota of security-related strategic mistakes, but it is debatable whether the country has profited from their fallout.

Let us take a few examples. Our ignominious defeat in the 1962 Sino-Indian War still rankles the nation with Lt Gen “Bijji” Kaul (a distant kin and confidant of Pandit Nehru) widely viewed as its key military architect. When Nehru, for reasons of misplaced loyalty, sought the President’s approval, for making Kaul the Army Chief in the aftermath of the debacle, Dr Radhakrishnan refused. In his reply to Nehru, he iterated: “War or no war, invasion or no invasion, attack or no attack, we must not be caught napping again…”

Kargil initially caught us on the wrong foot, till a resolute Army-Air Force effort reprieved the situation. In 1952, the then Defence Secretary arbitrarily ruled that the Service Chiefs report directly to the bureaucracy instead of the political authority. Nehru, in accepting the change even as he rejected Army Chief Gen KM Cariappa’s written request to form a Defence Council, signalled his tacit approval to make the Service Chiefs subordinate to a civilian official instead of political authority. Thus, ‘Civilian Control’ over the Services has become institutionalised as ‘Civil Service Control — a blunder.

In a recent, widely-read Issue Brief for the Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), co-authors ex-Army Chief Gen VP Malik and Anit Mukherji have brought out that in a letter written in September 1977 to Lt Gen ML Chhibber, the then Director General Military Operations, Lord Mountbatten had stated that the issue of Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) was irrelevant in the early years as the Naval and Air Chiefs were relatively junior. Later, when Mountbatten broached the CDS issue with Nehru, the PM, despite his reservations, agreed to reconsider it. Mountbatten recalled that on the eve of the 1962 War, Nehru became amenable to the idea but expressed inability to appoint Gen Thimayya, the then Chief, because of his frigid personal equation with Defence Minister Krishna Menon.

Later, efforts by Generals Choudhuri, Manekshaw, Krishna Rao and VP Malik, during their tenures as Army Chief; by Arun Singh in 1993,

JOINT CONTROL: The CDS dilemma has dogged the armed forces for decades now

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“INSTITUTE A FULL-TIME, PERMANENT CHAIRMAN COSC” WE DO not need a CDS. What we need is a Permanent Chairman, Chiefs of Staff Committee, instead of a part-time rotational one. Let me explain.

ADMIRAL Under the current (RETD) ARUN system, the ChairPRAKASH man, Chiefs of Staff Committee (COSC) is a part-time appointment, which rotates between the three Service Chiefs. On the retirement of one Chairman, the appointment devolves upon the next senior-most Chief. There are occasions when Service Chiefs retire within a few months of each other (on attaining the age of superannuation) and this causes the Chairman to also change in quick succession. This is most undesirable since many incumbents have just a few months’ tenure and cannot even settle down before they are replaced. This has grave implications since the responsibility for the country’s nuclear deterrent (the Strategic Forces Command) rests on his shoulders; and continuity is vital for such a crucial post.

The Chairman, COSC, is first and foremost, the Chief of his own Service, and running the Service takes up 90-95 per cent of his time and attention. Most Chiefs can, thus, devote only a few hours per week to look after the vast responsibilities of Chairman, COSC. This is again a most undesirable situation because the command and control of nuclear forces require a full-time functionary. The Chairman has many other responsibilities too (including the Andaman & Nicobar Joint Command and the Defence Acquisition process), but has little time to spare for them.

The Chairman, COSC, is merely “one amongst equals” and does not exercise any authority over the other two members of the COSC. Therefore, no decisions on any contentious issue can be taken by the COSC, especially if there is disagreement amongst the Services. Consequently, no issue of any serious consequence is ever discussed. Most decisions are left to

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the MoD bureaucracy.

From the above it is obvious that the current arrangement of having a parttime, rotational Chairman, COSC, is a complete farce. The solution is to institute a full time, permanent Chairman COSC, and to induct him as the senior-most (fourth member) of the COSC. He should have a fixed tenure of two-three years.

In fact, a CDS is not required if we institute a “Permanent Chairman COSC”. A Permanent Chairman, COSC, will not only have all the time but also the entire Integrated Defence Staff at his disposal to discharge his full charter of duties (as decided by the GoI). Amongst his more important functions will be to undertake perspective planning, and recommend optimal force structures to the Minister. He will also undertake prioritisation of defence expenditure between the three Services. Since he will be vested with authority over the COSC, the Permanent Chairman will be in a position to enforce difficult decisions.

There is no doubt that the current system of the three Services planning and operating independently is not only financially wasteful but operationally inefficient. In a future conflict it could prove disastrous. All other armed forces, of any significance, in the world function in a “Joint” mode. The introduction of a Permanent Chairman will, hopefully, lend impetus to the integration of the three armed forces, and enable progress on the road to “Jointmanship”.

Some of the Services fear that a Permanent Chairman from another Service will not understand their operational problems, and might also act in a biased manner to their detriment. It is forgotten that the No.2 officer in this hierarchy will be from a different Service, and the IDS HQ Staff is drawn from all three Services. Moreover, the Charter of the Permanent Chairman can be carefully drawn up by the GoI to introduce checks and balances. Finally, there is the MoD and the Minister to ensure equity and fairplay.

(Admiral Arun Prakash retired as Navy Chief)

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by the Kargil Review Committee (KRC) in 1999 and follow up by the Arun Singh-led Task Force on Higher Defence Management, have also been stymied.

This article examines the CDS issue dispassionately, keeping in mind our repeated failures to make headway by a committee review and, as a medium-term measure, recommends a constitutional road-map on the lines of the landmark US Goldwater-Nichols Act to address our security management concerns.

NATIONAL SECURITY REVIEWS Since 1947, India has undertaken five reviews on its national security management. These took place in the aftermath of the 1962 and 1965 wars, the Mizo insurrection, the Kargil War, 1999 and the 26/11 Mumbai carnage in 2008. Some structural and organisational changes have taken place after each of these reviews but in the wellpatented “half-way house” manner that defines most governmental work in India.

The Kargil Review Committee (KRC) of 1999 was headed by K Subrahmanyam with Lt Gen KK Hazari, journalist BG Varghese and seasoned bureaucrat Satish Chandra as members. The Government of India (GoI) tabled the report in Parliament in February 2000. Post-submission, Prime Minister Vajpayee constituted a Group of Ministers (GoM) to review the national security system in its entirety and to implement the recommendations made by the KRC. The GoM created four task forces to examine different aspects of national security, namely internal security, intelligence, border management and management of defence. The task force on defence was led by Arun Singh, former Minister of State for Defence and member of the still-classified 1993 Committee on Defence Expenditure (CDE). This report too, remains classified but domain knowledge suggests that it recommended a CDS post held by a four-star officer to provide singlepoint military advice, with overall charge of the proposed strategic nuclear command, defence intelligence, air defence and service promotions. The CDS would have under him a Vice Chief of Defence Staff and four Deputy Chiefs to coordinate responsibilities. The CDS was tasked to oversee the defence planning process and ensure ‘Jointness’.

The Air Force fiercely resisted the proposal. Arun Singh convened an urgent meeting with 17 former Services chiefs to no avail.

The then Air Chief, ACM AY Tipnis publicly spoke against the proposal, holding that the existing Chairman Chiefs of Staff Committee (COSC) system was adequate; a stand that August 2011

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“HOW CAN ONE ADVISE BUT NOT HAVE ANY RESPONSIBILITY?” I DON’T know whether CDS will be helpful or not in the present system. Countries like the US and France that have CDS usually have fought in recent years outside their territories.

AIR CHIEF So a CDS, as has been MARSHAL recommended for India (RETD)

by Arun Singh commitS P TYAGI tee, will not have an operational role. He will be a four- star officer as other chiefs and an independent adviser to the defence minister but he will have no responsibility of winning or losing war. How can a man advise but not have any operational responsibility?

Accountability and responsibility go together. At present the three chiefs are responsible for operations/wars. If we have a combined commander then all three service chief will report to him.

Political leadership is not very convinced about it.

(Air Chief Marshal S P Tyagi retired as Air Force Chief) even today finds reflection in the recent pronouncements of the just retired Air Chief PV Naik. Civil bureaucracy and political parties, fearing marginalisation, concurred. Finally, Vajpayee, duly advised by ex-President Venkataraman and ex-PM Narasimha Rao — both ex-Defence Ministers — rejected the proposal. What was ironically accepted were the supporting CDS structures — the Integrated Defence Staff (IDS), Andaman Nicobar Command (ANC), the Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA), the Office of Net Assessment (ONA) and the Strategic Force Command (SFC) — minus the post of CDS; a classic example of ad hocism. Not surprisingly, most of these organisations are today working sub-optimally.

WHY HAVE OUR DEFENCE REFORMS NOT WORKED? In a recent, lucid paper, Anit Mukherji writes that, post the 1962 debacle, modern politicians rarely interfere in military matters, leading to serious comprehension voids with the military. The problem is compounded by www.geopolitics.in

DEFENDERS OF THE SEA: The Navy feels threatened by the CDS system a “transient, generalist civilian bureaucracy” often flagged from unrelated ministries. The military too, suffers from generalist tendencies and lacks subject experts with attendant penalties. He also identifies ‘Jointness’, as hugely problematic. Dual-tasking Service Chiefs with command and staff functions have brought in subjectivity, work-overload and personality-driven emphasis that is not conducive to institutional continuity and inter-service as well as bureaucratic amity.

He says that, as a result, the need for integrated, theatre-based commands with the Chiefs handling only staff and training functions in line with world trends has been set aside. The key stakeholders in security matters — Ministries of Defence, Home, Finance, External Affairs — have different perceptions for reconciling, in the task of which the National Security Council (NSC) has proved incompetent. Additionally, the lack of transparency in GoI functioning on the specious plea of national interest discourages bright young people from participation in management of national security.

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General VP Malik writes that most reforms, have been cosmetic, a view reinforced by a frustrated Satish Chandra, erstwhile secretary-cum-member KRC, who squarely blames inept bureaucracy. General SK Sinha has been quoted as saying that the CDS issue died a still-born death because of the political leadership’s paranoia “of the man on horse-back”, civil bureaucracy fears of marginalisation and smaller Services insecurities about big brother Army. What has been left unsaid is that all three Services feel that the CDS, if not from their Service, will never comprehend their operational complexities; which is why they support status quo because they remain equal partners, joint yet independent. This approach is both self-serving and insidious.

NARESH CHANDRA NATIONAL TASK FORCE (NTF) The NTF was set up in July 2011 “to review the existing processes, procedures and practices in the national security system and suggest measures where necessary for August 2011

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COMBINED ARMS TACTICS: Any war involves the utmost cooperation among the three Services for any chance of success

strengthening of the national security apparatus”. It is expected to examine the CDS issue in detail; as well as the issue of integration between the Services and MoD. Naresh Chandra, its Chairman, is a National Security Advisory Board (NSAB) member and has been the Union Home, Defence and Cabinet Secretary as well as Indian Ambassador to the USA. Chandra’s team comprises retired officers such as ACM S Krishnaswamy, Gen VR Raghavan, Admiral Arun Prakash, DAE chief Anil Kakodkar, R&AW head KC Verma, Union Home Secretary VK Duggal, Diplomat G Parthasarathy, IB chief PC Haldar, NIA head RV Raju, Police chief D Sivanandan, Journalist Manoj Joshi, and Economist SK Bery. With the GoI under siege for its perceived non-performance — the announcement of yet another apex security review has been cautiously welcomed. What worries astute security analysts is the fact that GoI chose as members largely luminaries who were in government and still sit in its various committees. What is also worrisome is that key specialist areas such as net-centric warfare, missiles, space, DRDO, the burgeoning Military Industrial Complex and DIA have not been represented. The acid test for Naresh Chandra will, therefore, be contingent to the vision, span, and stark objectivity and ground applicability of his findings and recommendations.

The GoI, incidentally, had the option to order a Blue Ribbon Commission (BRC) — an approach suggested by K Subrahmanyam in 2008. Such commissions are highly regarded in developed countries. Pragmatic Euphony, a widely read blog had, in 2008, enunciated the ethos of a BRC. It is an independent and www.geopolitics.in

exclusive commission of the “best and brightest”, non-partisan statesmen and experts of various disciplines, formed to investigate important governmental issues and to develop the optimum structure to address policy issues/concerns thereof. Headed by an emi-

THE ACID TEST FOR CHANDRA WILL BE CONTINGENT TO THE VISION, SPAN, AND OBJECTIVITY OF HIS FINDINGS nent, non-controversial person and operating without fear or favour, such a commission could produce staggering results.

In July 1985, the US President’s Blue Ribbon Commission on Defense known as the ‘Packard Commission’ was charged with conducting a defence management study on the American Budget process, procurement system, legislative oversight, and the organisational and operational arrangements, amongst the office of the Secretary of Defense, the Organisation of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the Unified and Specified Command systems, the Military Departments and Congress. That it performed its charter brilliantly was evident in the passage of the landmark “Goldwater-Nichols Act” of 1986 — a bill that made “Jointmanship” applicable to the

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armed forces by presidential decree. Pragmatic Euphony succinctly brings out: “Real reform entails profound and fundamental change, not just in management and organisation, but across many other dimensions-in attitudes and mindsets, leadership and culture, operations and execution, tools and procedures, human resources and financial support. Reforming the national security system involves changes not just to one department but to the entire system of government.” The Naresh Chandra NTF would be well advised to keep the above advice in mind.

CDS — THE INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCE The astute in-the-know strategy-guru K Subrahmanyam opined that the British adopted the CDS system, knowing they would never fight an independent war. Critics of the UK system certainly felt vindicated by the 2010 controversy where the CDS Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup, voluntarily retired, well before his tenure was to end; to be replaced

by General Sir David Richards — a move that met with wide-ranging Army approval. Mismanagement of British ground troops in Afghanistan was reported to have been the reason for their demanding his departure.

Subrahmanyam strongly felt that the US model — the Chairman of the Joint Chief of Staffs system with theatre commands below him — was more suited for India.

Indonesia, a very large country, follows the CDS model, having skillfully adapted it to suit its national interest. The Tentara Nasional Indonesia (their armed forces) or TNI, have, as Panglima (Commander), a four-star officer who serves as the single-point military August 2011

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“CDS IS A STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION”

ISSUE OF CONTENTION: Army control of air assets has been an irritant for the Air Force contact to the Defence Minister with direct access to the President. His MoD civilian counterpart is the Secretary General — a retired three-star officer who controls all single service/joint operational employment and ensures a very high degree of integration. HQ TNI is directly responsible to the Panglima TNI for planning, conducting and maintaining operational readiness of the TNI and indirectly responsible for administration (through the service HQs). The Service Chiefs have operational and administrative roles during peace time, but during war Panglima TNI assumes operational control. Interestingly, the Indonesian Air Force opposed the CDS idea as do most Air Forces in the 67 countries that subscribe to the CDS system/its variants.

The justifiable fear was that other services would not understand their operating considerations and constraints.

The Australian system is called the “Diarchy” — wherein the Secretary of Defence and the Chief of Defence Forces (CDF) form two points of contact for the www.geopolitics.in

Ministry of Defence; the CDF being responsible for operational inputs while the Secretary is responsible for the rest. The Service Chiefs are only administrative heads of their Services responsible for training and administration, and do not even have an opera-

AFTER 1962, POLITICIANS DO NOT MEDDLE IN MILITARY MATTERS CAUSING A LACK OF UNDERSTANDING tional branch. There is a Chief of Joint Operations who is responsible for operations and is answerable to the CDF. There is also an independent Secretary of Materials who is

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THE INTER-service differences will always be there with or without CDS. In general, we are quite well off.

There are differences, but when we sit down on issues of national AIR MARSHAL importance, we forget our differences. The (RETD) P K BARBORA CDS is not a bad idea, if the experiment with IDS is any indication.

The four-star general as CDS would have the mandate to interact directly with the minister. He can enable better efficiency by ensuring Services get what they want faster. The files don’t have to go up and down. As it is, after the formation of IDS, the acquisition has improved a lot. In many a country, chiefs are part of Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS). As a chief I am not aware of what CCS thinks. If CDS is allowed to be present in CCS on defence matters, it can help in better planning.

Post 26/11 the three Services were not consulted for hours. So this is where a CDS can be helpful. Forces don’t know what the government is thinking on certain issues related with foreign policy.

The services plan are as per the Raksha Mantri’s operational directive.

CDS can convey the armed forces view to the political hierarchy. Each service can have its individual viewpoints. CDS could be the single point of exchange of views between government and services for better understanding.

Overall, thinking of a CDS is a step in the right direction.

(Air Marshal PK Barbora retired as Vice Chief of Air Staff) answerable to Parliament for all matters concerned with defence procurements. This appointment effectively restricts the role of the CDF to only “planning and recommending for procurement”.

AMERICAN SECURITY MANAGEMENT The Goldwater-Nichols Department of Defense Reorganisation Act of 1986 is the most important legislation affecting US national defense in the last 50 years. This Act, August 2011

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“I DO NOT WANT CDS IN ITS PRESENT FORMAT ” CDS IN the present form is not acceptable to me and I don't think that for the next five to 10 years, CDS is required because our operations are likely to be confined to our shores and we are not AIR CHIEF MARSHAL going thousands of (RETD) kilometres away like P V NAIK the US does where you need a theater commander to control operations. If at all we have to have a CDS, first of all we have to decide through a national debate. Secondly, we should have single point of military contact to the Raksha Mantri. I don't wish to have the CDS in present format as additional appendage. We have fought several battles in the last five decades and there has been excellent synergy between the various wings of the armed forces. We are also not involved in military expeditions in other countries like the US is in Afghanistan.

(Air Chief Marshal P V Naik recently retired as IAF Chief)

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AIR POCKET: The Air Force has been one of the most vocal opponents of the CDS system which implemented most suggestions of the Packard Blue Ribbon Commission, derived from the US military’s perceived inability to conduct successful “joint” operations. The

THE THREE SERVICES FEEL THAT IF CDS IS NOT ONE OF THEM, HE WILL NEVER KNOW THEIR PROBLEMS Act, passed after four years of legislative debate, designated the Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) as the principal military advisor to the President and sought to foster greater cooperation among the military services and bureaucracy. Among other changes, Goldwater-Nichols streamlined the military chain of command, which now runs from the President through the Secretary of Defense directly to Unified Combatant Commanders (CCDRs), bypassing the service chiefs. The Service Chiefs were assigned an advisory role to both the President and the Secretary of Defense as well as given the responsibility for training and equipping

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personnel for the unified combatant commands. Named after Senator Barry Goldwater and Representative William Nichols, the Bill became law on October 1, 1986.

The Goldwater-Nichols Act was an attempt to fix problems caused by inter-service rivalry, which had emerged during the Vietnam War, contributed to the catastrophic failure of the Iranian hostage rescue mission in 1980, which were still evident in the invasion of Grenada in 1983. The United States military was then organised along the lines of command that reported to their respective Service Chiefs (Commandant of the Marine Corps, Chiefs of Staff of the Army and Air Force, and Chief of Naval Operations). These chiefs in turn made up the Joint Chiefs of Staff. The Joint Chiefs of Staff elected a Chairman to communicate with the civilian government, somewhat akin to the current Indian system. The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs in turn reported to the Secretary of Defense, the civilian head of the military.

Both the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs and the Secretary of Defense reported to the President of the United States. This system led to counter-productive inter-service rivalry.

Peace and wartime activities were tailored for each service in isolation, inhibiting the development of modern-warfare doctrine.

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g COVERSTORY in so doing, exposed the difficulty of coordinating efforts among various service branches. The US invasion of Grenada in 1983 further exposed serious interface problems with the military command structure as well as integration issues. The Goldwater-Nichols Act brought sweeping changes to the way the US forces fought. Its first successful test was the 1991 Gulf War, where US forces functioned exactly as planned, allowing the commander, General Norman Schwarzkopf, to exercise full control over Marine Corps, Army, Air Force and Navy assets without negotiating with individual Services. Goldwater-Nichols thus radically changed the way the Services interact. The Services themselves “organise, train and equip” forces for use by the combatant commanders (CCDRs), and the Service Chiefs no longer exercise any operational control over their forces. Rather than reporting to a Service Chief operationally, the Service component forces support the commander responsible for a specific function (Special Operations, Strategic, Transportation), or a geographic region of the globe (Northern, Central, European, Pacific, Southern, and Africa Commands). Joint implementation of new technology allows joint development of supporting doctrines. The Goldwater-Nichols Act can also be seen as the initial step of the ongoing Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) with its concept of Network-Centric Warfare (NCW).

Dr Jack LeCuyer of the US Army War College is deeply involved with the Project on National Security Reform. In a recent talk, he stated that the dimensions of national security now included the global issues of economic security, environmental security, homeland security, pandemics, networked transnational terrorism, failing and failed states, regional instability, cyber-terrorism, and the potential use of weapons of mass destruction by state and non-state actors. In addition, global climate change, demographics, and rising global demand for finite resources raise serious concerns over the availability of food, water, and other resources that threaten economic and political stability around the world and require new transparent, strategically agile and integrated “whole-of-government” institutional responses to preserve our national security and prosperity. It does not require great wisdom to divine that Dr LeCuyer could well be speaking for India and the challenges that lie ahead of the Naresh Chandra NTF. How useful the futuristic exercise being attempted by him is, would depend substantially on his “Terms of Reference”, objectivity, methods of work and his critical thinking capacity and clarity of concepts. The co-operwww.geopolitics.in

RADICAL INNOVATORS: Senator Barry Goldwater (Republican — Arizona) and Representative William Nichols (Democrat — Alabama), the visionary co-sponsors of the Goldwater-Nichols Act of 1986 ation that he gets from those in the know as well as those outside the loop but intellectually endowed will be germane to his success.

Keeping in mind that the Services, for perfectly valid reasons, will not be able to professionally agree to compromises that, in their perception, serve to undermine their operational effectiveness, a mid-term solution may lie in following an Indian variant of the large-

ly successful US legislation, which has, in large measure, minimised the soul-destroying, internecine inter-service as well as political-military-bureaucratic spat that all democracies suffer from in managing their national security. Our world acknowledged electoral conduct success; the RTI; the recent Lokpalrelated activism all indicate that responsible Parliamentarians across party lines can rise to the challenge like Goldwater and Nichols did across the Republican-Democrat political divide; joining hands across party loyalty to create a historic and practical legislation. The country has vocal, well, informed Parliamentarians in its Rajeev Chandrasekhars, Tiwaris, Pilots and Jindals who can start with a Blue Ribbon Commission (if Naresh Chandra’s NTF falls short of expectations) and follow that up with a really brilliant piece of legislation for which they must initiate a countrywide national debate — starting NOW. (The author is a retired Major General, Indian Army)

“THE CDS SYSTEM IS THE NEED OF THE HOUR FOR INDIA” Why do we need CDS? A lot has changed and ‘Jointness’ and unity of command are a prerequisite for cohesion in the armed force structure of a nation, especially a rising power like India. by CMDE (RETD) Recommended RANJIT B RAI numerous committees and adopted by 32 nations of the world, the CDS system is the need of the hour for India.

How will it be beneficial especially in planning and strategy?

The Cold War ended. The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), which supported and armed India in the Cold War, disintegrated. The world became uni-polar with the US as the only superpower.

Pakistan went overtly nuclear in 1998, and our security equations changed, but we never changed and our nuclear policy of No First Use. That too, demands a CDS system for one point of advice, acquisition priority and for the making of joint contingency war plans.

Can it also improve the operational

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efficiency of forces?

India’s armed forces are individually very capable and becoming heavily armed so naturally if the three arms are more cohesive in their ways the synergy that it will generate will stand India in better stead in peace and in war to safeguard India’s security.

What is the reason behind the difference of opinion between the forces?

Indians by and large are emotional and the heads of services and their thinking cannot be too different. Each Chief safeguards his own turf and cooperative steps in India’s security architecture have been slow to come about, so they fear that the Chief and his Service may lose some turf if there is an overbearing CDS. This has been consistently depicted by the Indian Air Force in decision-making for the CDS, just like air forces the world over. Instead of being powerful, they feel threatened, and their fears have never been allayed, as the bureaucracy too has vested interests in not having a CDS. (Cmde Ranjit B Rai retired as Director — Naval Intelligence and Operations)

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IMPORTANCE OF MILITARY JOINTMANSHIP If one goes by the dominant global norm, India needs a Chief of Defence Staff, argues RAKESH DATTA

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here has been a clamour in the Indian armed forces for a long time to institute the position of Chief of Defence Staff as the operational head of the three services. It has been an accepted fact, that even though political leadership of a country sets the national objectives, the security aspect remains the responsibility of the armed forces. The Western nations, therefore, lay stress on the close cooperation amongst the fighting forces.

It was at the time of Independence that the then Viceroy, Lord Mountbatten, advised Pt. Nehru not to keep the position of the CDS, in order to have a strong, stable federal civilian control in the country; and this was taken by the successive governments like a quote from the Bible.

Let’s start with a backdrop of the defence organisation in India. The military department was created by the supreme government of East India Company at Calcutta in

‘JOINTNESS’ REVOLVES AROUND HOW JOINT FORCES WILL RESPOND TO SECURITY CHALLENGES 1776. Later, after the establishment of Crown rule, presidencies’ armies were unified in 1895 into a single British Indian Army whose authority was vested in the Governor General’s Council. It had two members responsible for military affairs; one supervising the administrative and financial matters and the

ON THE VIGIL: In a war, the infantry’s morale would be greatly enhanced if air support is just a call away

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other in charge of operational matters.

In 1909, the military department was named as the army department, to be redesignated as the defence department in 1938. With Independence in 1947, the Ministry of Defence was created and the three Service heads were named as Commanders- in-Chief. In 1955, this title was abolished and the Service heads were designated as chief of the respective service. While the services were put as an appendage to the MoD, they have remained sovereign in their approach and operational behaviour.

The only apparent bondage that exists amongst them is the Chief of Staff Committee, chaired by the seniormost service head, though sans any authority.

Despite being a non-violent country, India has a long period of military invasions in its history. During such times, kings were also the Commanders-in-Chief of their forces. This practice of dual charge was seen in the times of Porus, Alexander, Napoleon, Frederick and Tipu Sultan and the like. However, the modern era is distinguished by governments of various ideologies with their defence forces practicing either joint defence structures or being independent of each other.

It may be pointed out that nearly 66 countries in the world have joint command structures while nearly 143 nations have not adopted the joint armed concept. In most of the Western democracies like the US and the UK, France, Germany, Italy, as well as other nations of consequence in Asia-Pacific such as China, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Sri Lanka, there is a duly appointed Chief of Defence/General Staff, enjoying the full confidence of their respective head of state or government.

On the other hand, countries that have not adopted Chief of Defence Staff are mostly smaller nations, India being an exception.

They include countries such as Afghanistan, Bhutan, Iraq, Nepal, Angola, Mali, Cuba, Mexico, Boliva, Colombia, Fiji, Crotia, Hungary and Panama, to mention a few.

Some of them do not possess the sufficient August 2011

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PRECISE COORDINATION REQUIRED: Parachute drops behind enemy lines requires the seamless cooperation between the Army and the Air Force armed forces to undertake even regular defence requirements.

The basic concept for ‘Jointness’ revolves in board terms how the joint force will operate in response to a wide variety of security challenges. It suggests how the future joint force commander will combine and subsequently adapt some combination of all basic categories of military activities — combat, security, engagement and internal security issues — in accordance with the unique requirements of each operational situation. ‘Jointness’ is also considered essential when looking at future challenges and preparing accordingly. It is intended to be adaptable, as it must be, to changes in that guidance. www.geopolitics.in

It has been seen that most operations fought jointly and in an integrated manner during and after the Great Wars were successful. Here it may be mentioned that after the 1971 war, Indira Gandhi offered the then Army Chief General Manekshaw the post of Chief of Defence Staff. Later, when consensus was sought by the then Raksha Mantri from the other two Chiefs, the matter got aborted. During NDA rule also, the longawaited integration of the three services got shelved due to the indifference shown by the services.

Though not a new concept, “Military jointness” has been intensified in modern times. Reasons include the shrinking period of war, long-drawn armed forces, extended

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periods of moblisation, rising defence budgets, lack of interoperability and a dominating service ethos. In most cases, it was found that the concept of ‘Jointness’ was adopted after it was realised that the armed forces of a country would be fighting for the same strategic space and for the same resources.

All nations practicing ‘jointmanship’ do have a CDS or equivalent, providing single window advice, or more correctly, a synergised institutional opinion. Such ‘Jointness’ or appointment of CDS is validated in the countries concerned as an act of national legislature. For instance, the GoldwaterNicholas Act made ‘Jointness’ mandatory in the United States. So did the Heseltine Reform in the United Kingdom.

To promote joint operational requirements most of the countries such as the US, the UK, France, Germany, Australia, Italy and Russia have established joint Headquarters (HQs), tasked exclusively for training and operations. No regulatory selection criteria are followed for the CDS, notwithstanding the merit and professional competence as key determinants for the appointment of CDS/CJOs. The Chief of Defence Staff is the operational head of the three Services and is empowered to choose the operational commanders given the geo-strategic responsibilities. Joint training in all such countries practicing ‘Jointness’ begins at the rank of major and its equivalence at combined staff / Defence College with the next course at NDC level. This comes closer to our level of configuration which though has combined course construct, but sans joint behaviour.

It may be noted here that the creation of joint defence structure does not mean the abolition of the authority of the Service Chiefs. Their significance lies in maintaining Service character, training and force providers for facilitating joint operational engagement, which itself is a full-time job.

However, keeping in view the Service conflicts in India arising from the appointment of CDS/CJO, the most desirable approach is to adopt a power-sharing mechanism instead of sabotaging it. For instance, if the CDS appointment is enjoyed by Marshal of an Air Force or Naval Admiral, there must be an appointment of Vice Chief held by the Army General, but it may not be the last recipe.

(The writer is Professor and Chairman at Department of Defence and National Security Studies, Punjab University, Chandigarh) August 2011

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Prahaar successfully test-fired A NEW surface-to-surface missile called ‘Prahaar’ was successfully test-fired on July 21 for the first time from the Integrated Test Range at Chandipur, Odisha.

The missile traversed its entire range of 150 km in 250 seconds before impacting on the targeted area in the Bay of Bengal with an accuracy of few metres.

The Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) developed Prahaar (meaning “to strike”) in two years, to specifically bridge the gap in the range between the unguided Pinaka rocket, which has a range of 45 km, and the guided Prithvi missile variants, that can take out targets 250 km to 350 km away.

Prahaar carries a 200-kg conventional warhead. It is said to be a unique missile, as it has high maneuverability, very high acceleration and excellent impact accuracy. It is an all-weather missile that can be launched from canisters.

Prahaar is a single-stage missile, propelled by solid fuel. It is 7.3 metres tall, has a diameter of 42 cm and weighs 1.3 tonnes. The missile reaches a height of 35 kms before

reaching the targets 150 km away.

Since it can be fired from a road mobile launcher, it can be quickly transported to different places. It can be deployed in various kinds of terrain such as snowbound areas or jungles. With its range of 150 km, it is comparable to the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) of the United States, he added.

The Prahaar can carry different types of conventional warheads. Six Prahaar missiles can be launched in salvo mode in different directions. The missile has a quick reaction time, that is, it can be launched within a few minutes. It has sophisticated inertial navigation, guidance and electro-mechanical actuation systems. Its onboard computer helps it home in on the targets with an accuracy of 10 metres.

According to DRDO sources, India’s interceptor missile was converted into Prahaar. “That is why it has a range of 150 km,” they said.

Indian Army raising new Special Forces battalion

Work commences on second N-submarine

STRENGTHENING ITS capabilities to carry out special operations, the Indian Army is raising a new Special Forces battalion, which will be deployed in the north-eastern sector.

A new battalion of the Parachute Regiment — 11 Para (SF) — is being raised and will be first deployed in the north-eastern sector, according to Army sources. This will be the eighth Special Forces battalion of the Parachute Regiment and will be deployed in counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism operations in that region.

The Parachute Regiment has 10 battalions under it and seven of them have been trained as Special Forces, which are supposed to carry out counter-terrorist operations during peacetime and sabotage enemy installations beyond enemy lines during wars.

The Special Forces battalions include the 1, 2, 3, 4, 9, 10 and 21 Para units, which are deployed in different sectors of the country and have also been given responsibility to handle any 26/11 type attacks if that occurs near their area of deployment.

The Army wants to increase the number of Special Forces troops to more than 10 battalions with around 700 men in each, it is believed. These battalions have been provided with modern equipment such as Tavor 21 assault rifles.

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CONSTRUCTION OF India’s second nuclear submarine has begun at a classified facility in Visakhapatnam, according to reports. This project was launched just 24 months after India’s first nuclear submarine INS Arihant was commissioned.

“The second programme took far lesser time than Arihant to reach the shipyard from the drawing board. This time we had a clear plan and we had learned a lot from our mistakes,” a top government

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source was quoted to have said.

Though the exact details of the submarine’s progress have not been made public yet, it is learnt that fabrication of the hull and body has begun. The reactor is being constructed with Russia’s help.

The project is expected to be ready for sea trials by 2015. By that time India would have a Russian submarine and INS Arihant deployed.

The Akula-II class nuclear submarine K-152 Nerpa, to be renamed INS Chakra, will be handed over to Indian Navy by Russian Navy by the end of the year on a 10-year lease.

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INDIA SET TO DROP ANCHOR OFF CHINA INDIA HAS taken the first tentative steps towards establishing a “sustainable maritime presence” in the South China Sea, not far from the Chinese mainland.

With Indo-Vietnamese naval cooperation set to strengthen in the days to come, Vietnam has allowed Indian naval warships to drop anchor at its Nha Trang port in southern Vietnam during naval goodwill visits, wellplaced government sources have confirmed to a section of the press.

Sources said the Indian Navy was perhaps the only foreign Navy in recent times to have been given this privilege by the Vietnamese at a port other than Halong Bay, near Hanoi. The move will give India the key to a sustainable presence in the South China Sea. This will enable India to play a bigger role in the strategic Southeast Asian region which overlooks key shipping lines.

India, too, is set to offer naval facilities for training and capacity-building to Vietnam. The Commander-in-Chief of the Vietnam People’s Navy, Vice-Admi-ral and deputy minister Nguyen Van Hien, has just visited Mumbai and Visakhapatnam to witness Indian naval capabilities. Besides, India could also offer its experience in ship-building to Vietnam, which currently has a small Navy.

Both India and Vietnam are wary of growing Chinese military capabilities. Both countries have been victims of Chinese military attacks in the past.

PIPAVAV SHIPYARD TO STRENGTHEN ITS DEFENCE SECTOR PIPAVAV SHIPYARD LTD has notified Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) of its change of name from ‘Pipavav Shipyard Limited’ to ‘Pipavav Defence and Offshore Engineering Company Limited’. The name change signifies the company’s intention to become an integrated defence, oil and gas sector company.

The company is in the process of bidding for two significant contracts for Indian Army using its existing infrastructure capabilities.

The company is in discussions with two international defence majors to set up production facilities at Pipavav for the Indian armed forces.

The private sector is allowed to bid for defence contracts in India, subject to their building capacities and capabilities. Recently, Pipavav won an order to supply Indian Navy with Offshore patrol vessels( OPVs) worth approximately `2500 Crore.

IAF seeks direct control of HAL to stem eroding combat-edge FED UP with the “bureaucratic culture” pervading Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL), the country’s only aircraft manufacturer, the Indian Air Force has asked the Defence Ministry (MoD) to appoint one of its three-star officers, instead of a bureaucrat, as the chairman and managing director of HAL once the present incumbent Ashok Naik retires on October 31.

According to MoD sources, the IAF had even proposed the name of present Assistant Chief of Air Staff (Operations & Space), Air Vice Marshal M Matheswaran, a top-notch fighter pilot now approved for the Air Marshal rank, for the HAL post.

Simultaneously, a panel of names has also been drawn up to include

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Pawan Hans chief RK Tyagi, a defence accounts service officer SN Mishra,

who earlier was Joint Secretary (Aerospace) in MoD, and MSTC Chairman S K Tripathi, among others.

The IAF is HAL’s biggest customer.

It contends that the HAL chief should be someone who “understands aerospace concepts” and can “transform” HAL into a cutting-edge company,

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capable of delivering on time, to stem its fast-eroding combat edge.

Most ongoing HAL projects like the ones for the Tejas Light Combat Aircraft, Dhruv Advanced Light Helicopters and indigenous production of Sukhoi-30MKI fighters as well as Hawk Advanced Jet Trainers are all running behind schedule.

Moreover, HAL is also going to handle new programmes worth billions of dollars with foreign collaborators in the near future. They range from the medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA) and fifth-generation fighter aircraft (FGFA) to light utility helicopters and multi-role transport aircraft (MTA).

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Mumbai has been attacked again. Why is it that lessons are not learnt and remedial actions not implemented?

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TRAINING SCHOOL FOR SECRET AGENTS IN MUMBAI IN VIEW of growing incidents of bomb blasts and intelligence failure, the central government is setting up a multi-disciplinary school of economic intelligence in Mumbai to train its secret agents drawn from the Intelligence Bureau, R&AW, CBI and state special branches, which will keep a tab on terror masterminds by mapping their financial records.

In a number of terror incidents in the recent past, the government had unearthed financial trails that had helped sleuths in uncovering the entire network and terror outfits’ sleeper cells.

The government has approved the proposal and a plot belonging to the Salt department in Mumbai’s Bhandup, adjacent to the National Academy of Customs

Excise and Narcotics (NACEN), has been identified and being acquired for building the school.

The Central Economic Intelligence Bureau (CEIB) is the coordinating agency, while NACEN has been asked to take the initiative to set up the school. NACEN had identified the Bhandup plot when it had conducted two pilot courses last year.

A committee has been set up to work out the modalities for settingup of the school and determining the curriculum. Inputs on the functional responsibilities and fundamental requirements of individual agencies had been sought from the member intelligence agencies to frame a comprehensive curriculum encompassing diversified fields. Responses have been received from some agencies and the curriculum is likely to be finalised soon.

CENTRE TO DECLARE MORE DISTRICTS NAXAL-HIT THE CENTRAL government is understood to have decided to clear the request of Naxal-hit states to declare more districts the extreme Left Wing Extremism (LWE)-affected districts.

If included in the list of LWE-hit districts, these areas would start receiving special central funds for security and infrastructure-related expenses under the Security Related Expenditure (SRE) scheme. Among the states that will benefit are Odisha,

Chhattisgarh, Bihar and Jharkhand.

The Centre is also likely to bring 20 more districts in the Naxal-hit states under its Integrated Action Plan. These districts would also be entitled to receive 100 per cent Central grants for schemes aimed at addressing the issues of healthcare, drinking water, education and roads. Currently, 60 districts receive `25 crore each for schemes earmarked by a committee headed by the District Collector.

MUMBAI TO GET BETTER POLICING, COMMUNICATION AFTER MAHARASHTRA Chief Minister Prithviraj Chavan’s admission that he could not contact the Mumbai Police Commissioner for 15 minutes after the three bomb blasts on July 13, the state government has decided to chalk out a plan for an easy communication access to key persons during such emergencies.

The state information technology directorate has been asked to explore options, including use of satellite telephones, very high frequency (VHF) ranges of radio spectrum and video conferencing by key persons, including the Chief Minister, Deputy Chief Minister, Home Minister, Director General of Police and Mumbai Police Commissioner during any such crisis.

Further, the government would expedite construction of a fire-proof and a blastproof control room for providing state-ofthe-art communications and other sophisticated equipment. The proposed room would come up on land available just behind the 150-year-old offices of the Mumbai police commissionerate.

The government would also speed up the

installation of 5,000 closed circuit televisions (CCTVs) by March 2012, with an expenditure of `300 crore. So far, 100 such CCTVs have been installed and operationalised. Pricewaterhouse Coopers is advising the government on installation.

During a crisis, the government wants to connect CCTVs installed by private parties, including those in malls, cinema houses and hotels, to connect with the regional control room. These are some of the recommendations made by a committee headed by former Union home secretary Ram Pradhan after the November 2008 (26/11) terrorist attack. However, they were not implemented.

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WITH SHOESHINE boys often tapped by security agencies for information on suspicious activities in their surroundings, the Western Railway (WR) now wants coolies and food vendors to be its eyes and ears, too. All these people have been instructed to report all suspicious

activities immediately to the police.

Besides, plain-clothed Railway Protection Force (RPF) personnel will make rounds of station premises. “One RPF company, which consists of 80 personnel, has been deployed for security on railway premises, besides 200 jawans.

The jawans’ leaves have been cancelled and they would be working in 12-hour shifts,” according to a WR official.

Meanwhile, Central Railway (CR) has identified 13 sensitive stations where it will implement the Integrated Security System project.” At these 13 stations, there will be a state-of-theart CCTV surveillance system, baggage screening and bomb squad in place,” a CR spokesperson said recently. Quick Response Teams have been deployed at certain stations to respond immediately in case of exigencies.

ALARM SYSTEM TO CONTROL CROSSBORDER CRIMES THE BORDER Security Force (BSF) has installed an alarm system at its North Bengal Frontier with Bangladesh to control cross-border crimes. The system has been attached to the fence, which would go on immediately if the barbed wires were touched, to alert guards at the nearest outpost.

In addition, guards patrolling at night can make use of the night-vision devices to locate objects in the dark by sensing body heat. Smuggling, infiltration, transport of fake Indian currencies, narcotics, and human and cattle trafficking are common in the North Bengal Frontier region, which covers around 885 km of the porous India-Bangladesh border.

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INTERNAL SECURITY

FISHERMEN URGED TO BE EYES, EARS OF SECURITY UNITS A COMMUNITY interaction meeting organised recently by the Indian Coast Guard and Coastal Security Police at Ullal near Mangalore has urged local fishermen to be aware of their surroundings on the high seas and report any suspicious movement of foreign fishing vessels to the notice of the authorities concerned. The two security units organised similar meetings at Karwar, Bhatkal, Honnavar, and Bunder.

Such interaction meetings are held to sensitise the fishermen about the new dimensions to internal security that can come from high seas as was seen during the 26/11 attacks. Information from fishermen about the suspicious movements on the vessels high seas can be extremely valuable to authorities.

CHOPPER AMBULANCES FOR FORCES FIGHTING NAXALS THE GOVERNMENT will provide specialised helicopter ambulance service to more than 70,000 troops of paramilitary forces deployed to undertake antiNaxal operations. Based on a feasibility report prepared by the Union Home Ministry, it has been decided to deploy air ambulances at three “strategic” theatres of operations — Left Wing Extremism, combating insurgents in the North-East and countering terrorists in Jammu and Kashmir. A squad of specialist doctors and paramedical staff

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will also be trained and deployed on these helicopters to evacuate and rush troops of CRPF, BSF, ITBP, SSB and state police forces deployed in the Naxal-affected areas of the country.

The helicopter fleet will either be taken on lease or a few choppers in the present fleet of BSF air wing would be converted as air ambulances. The air facility will be run by the medical wing of the Home Ministry with the Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) acting as the nodal agency among all the forces.

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WAGING THE WAR IN JUNGLES Fighting the Maoists in the jungles in central and eastern India and combating the insurgents in the forests of the north-east are increasingly becoming a complex affair as far as ensuring India’s internal security is concerned. The central paramilitary forces are accordingly evolving new skills to confront the problems, writes ROHIT SRIVASTAVA

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NTI-MAOIST operations have created a new challenge for our security forces. The Maosts /Naxals have created havoc in the central Indian forest region sspread over the states of Bihar, Bengal, Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and www.geopolitics.in

Jharkhand.

The news of last year’s attack on Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) personnel at Dantewada is still fresh in public memory.

The CRPF company was overwhelmed by the Maoists and many jawans were massacred. The incident highlighted the force’s

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shortcomings in jungle warfare. Since then, the CRPF claims to have built up its capability and is developing its own intelligence network.

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JUNGLE WARFARE: How prepared are India’s paramilitary forces?

CENTRAL RESERVE POLICE FORCE (CRPF) The first batch of 40 officers underwent IED course in College of Military Engineering, Pune from April 11, 2011 to May 7, 2011 and the second batch of subordinate officers (SOs) and other ranks completed the course wef May 9, 2011 to June 4, 2011.

Twentyfour officers and SOs underwent the intelligence course in BSF ‘G’ school from May 16, 2011 to June 10, 2011.

Eight subsidiary training centres have been established at following location Allahabad, Taralu, Pallipuram, Greater Noida, Khotkhali, Neemuch, Rangareddy and Latur to impart basic training to approximately 8000 recruits.

BORDER SECURITY FORCE (BSF) The basic training course of the BSF has components of jungle warfare. In fact, JW is also part of tactical courses like the patrol commander’s course and the company commander’s course, etc. There was a time when the Hazaribagh training centre provided courses in jungle warfare and commando training. This continued for quite some time when the BSF was also deployed in counter-insurgency (CI). BSF sends its jawans to the Counter Insurgency and Jungle Warfare School (CIJW) at Vairengte, Mizoram where the JW instructors are trained.

All sub-inspectors are trained in JW and everyone has to go through it since it is a part of the promotion courses.

A senior BSF officer said, “There is an element of orientation in our men. We are deployed in Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura, which are forest areas. So we do have experience. Before getting deployed, the men and officers of the units are trained together. We have plans to take out instructors from the outgoing units to train the incoming unit so that the domain knowledge is passed on.”

Recently, a BSF unit was ambushed at Koilebeda in Raipur district. The unit had been deployed to keep a road open. A company had been posted for the protection of a convoy that comprised jawans going on leave. The unit was attacked by around 150 Naxals while it was returning. Though two men died and four were injured, the company killed the Naxals and forced them to retreat. In the next two days, a number of mines were detected and successfully neutralised. The manner in which the BSF jawans repulsed the attack underlined the fact that the jawans had the required expertise and the mind set to fight a pitched battle in the thick forest, said a senior officer.

FIGHTING A GUERRILLA LIKE A GUERRILLA: Jungle operations are extremely intense in nature and drain soldiers immensely, especially when the threat to life is very real extraordinary shooting skills. While the ability to survive needs a lot of patience, a soldier has to be capable of exploiting whatever is available. Further, JW also requires a lot of common sense. These qualities come from training both at the mental and physical levels.

Speaking to Geopolitics on JW capability, a www.geopolitics.in

INDO-TIBETAN BORDER POLICE (ITBP) The Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) initially set up its Commando and Counter Insurgency School at Shivpuri (MP). The force had its origin as a guerrilla outfit and retains that original character even today. In fact, the ITBP was the first paramilitary force to have a commando course.

ITBP has five battalions involved in anti-Naxal operations at Rajnandgaon in Chhattisgarh. In its last 18 months of involvement, sources suggest that the ITBP has given a fine performance which is evident from the ratio of casualties and catches. ITBP has made 97 catches and had lost just three men in an IED blast.

Senior officers believe that the success is due to rigorous training at high altitudes, which makes the men tough. Though the men who undergo commando training are chosen from every unit, they are chosen for their willingness, aptitude and previous performance.

Perhaps, what is important is that before the ITBP sends personnel for JW course, they are taught terrain analysis, the modus operandi of Maoists, their sympathiser groups and relations between them and local population. The ITBP follows the basic rules of CI/CT operations like, minimum vehicle use and improvisations as per need, informed a top source.

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SHOW OF FORCE: The CRPF claims to have built up its potential and intelligence network since the Dantewada massacre top CRPF officer said, “The forces had gone to the ‘battlefield’ without an acceptable level of theatre specific training. This is what caused the setback. Now, the entire approach has been shifted to JW training. A special outfit, COBRA (Combat Battalion for Resolute Action), has been raised. It will have JW training and be at par with any comparable force.”

CRPF has ten battalions of COBRA and is planning to raise another ten. Battalion officers have to undergo vigorous training. The basic training has a six-week JW training module in it. During the basic training, the men have to spend their time in the jungle.

All officers in the CRPF, including those on deputation, have to go through the www.geopolitics.in

Counter-Insurgency Anti-Terror course and spend a mandatory seven days in a jungle camp.

Snipers play a very important role in jungle warfare often doing what a whole unit may not be able to do. Sources suggest that every section of the CRPF will be getting a sniper. Jungle snipers are being trained by the National Security Guards (NSG) and Army schools. As of now, two batches of snipers — each comprising 30 trainees — have been undergoing training. A proposal has been sent to increase the batch strength.

Besides, the government is contemplating to utilise air assets such as helicopters in antiMaoist operations. Sources point out that the new training module has rappelling, which

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would be of help in case security forces are air-dropped into the jungles. Geopolitics was furthered informed: “All the basic and in-service training in JW have air-dropping and manoeuvering components.”

A top CRPF source, associated with the JW training said: “At present, JW training is being imparted at two training institutes: at Silchar in Assam and at Shivpuri in Madhya Pradesh. A new training institute at Belgaum, Karnataka, is being raised. Each institute is being headed by a DIG, who is assisted by a Commandant, four Deputy Commandants and six Assistant Commandants.”

These institutes apart, each sector Inspector-General (IG) will head an ad-hoc training institute: Sector Weapon and Tactics Institute (SWATI). These will impart training in addition to what will be provided at the specialised institutes.

The total JW training module spans over six weeks. Of this, one week is the mandatory jungle camp where the combatants have to go through practice operations. The training includes search, firing, ambush, counterambush and long range patrol. And the weapons the personnel are trained in are field weapons like 51mm mortar, grenade launchers and the recently-introduced under-barrel grenade launchers along with personal weapons.

Jungle operations are intense in nature and can drain any soldier, especially when the threat to life is very real. The threat to a jawan’s life can be gauged by the number of casualties that have taken place in recent years and the operations against Maoists have witnessed a far higher number of casualties on the forces side. In addition, a fatigued soldier can become a bigger threat than the enemy itself. Efforts are on to replace fatigued soldiers in a systematic way with a cooling-off posting.

“What we are doing is the rotation of the fatigued men. You can’t keep the same people in the same theatre for long. This can create mental breakdowns. 30-40 per cent of the men are changed in any unit per year and after a transfer, a six-week reorientation training is imparted,” said a senior CRPF official.

The CRPF is also reorganizing its battalions to utilise its manpower. Since there is no age barrier for the combatants, each CRPF battalion is a mix of fresh and seasoned men.

“In every company there are three platoons, of which one consists of young and fully trained, another one is on standby and the last one is of elderly jawans. We are reorganising now so that the required punch is there,” said the official.

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MAXIMUM CITY TARGETED AGAIN: The national response to terrorism has to be non-partisan, which calls for a consensus on major issues by all the major parties

MUMBAI AGAIN

The recent blasts in Mumbai proved once again that the country had not learnt any lessons from 26/11(2008). Though various measures towards “zero tolerance of terror” have been suggested, nothing is working due to the lack of bi-partisan political consensus. For this, the ruling Congress and the main opposition party BJP are responsible. It is high time the two premier political parties of India came together to fight terrorism, argues AJAY K MEHRA

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HE SERIES of three blasts in Mumbai on July 13, 2011 has been the fourth serial blast and fourteenth terrorist attack on India’s commercial capital since 1993. If we consider the serial blasts — 13 in 1993, two in 2003, seven in 2006 and the last three — and include multiple attacks in 2008, the average would work out to more than one per year. Obviously Mumbai, as India’s business and commercial hub, has been singled out by the handlers of terrorists for close to two decades. Indeed, terrorist attacks have taken place in the country’s capital several times and on other locations too, but the www.geopolitics.in

impact of an attack on Mumbai is considered a psychological blow to India’s rising stock in business, commerce and industry globally, like an attack on Delhi is considered a bloody blow on its political nose.

To this extent, the country’s political and security establishments should have pulled up their socks and tightened their belts for a better response — preemptive, post-occurrence, politically and diplomatically. The blame game with 2008 as a reference hides the fact that while during the 1993 serial blasts the Congress was in power, during 1997-98 when three blasts took place (August 28, ‘97, January 24 and February 27, ‘98),

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there was a United Front government at the Centre. When the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) ruled during 2002-03, and the BJP-Shiv Sena was in power in Maharashtra too, seven blasts took place in Mumbai. The United Progressive Alliance (UPA) has faced three major incidents in five years and it has been ruling in Maharashtra since 2004. Obviously, all the political parties and leaders as well as the leadership of India’s security establishment are in the dock for not doing anything substantial to protect the nation and its citizens from terror attacks.

The blame game has come in the way of a bipartisan approach on this critical issue.

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g INTERNALSECURITY The war against terror is to be won irrespecmechanisms, the key element of which is the there would be similar confusion had such tive of which party has been given the mansetting up of the NCTC, like in most develan incident taken place in Tamil Nadu, Bihar, date to govern by the people of India. Moreoped countries. Known in government cirGujarat, Karnataka, or any other state ruled over, India has been under multi-party rule cles as the ‘100-day internal security plan’, by another party or combine. The states for the past three decades and most parties the document, prepared by the then Nationwould pass off the blame to the Union Govhave held the reins, either at the Centre, or in al Security Advisor M K Narayanan (now ernment. India’s endemic finger-pointing one state or the other.

Governor of West Bengal), aimed at creating political culture is among the greatest obstaEven worse in this process is the coalition, a ‘National Network Security Architecture’ to cles to multi-partisanism on major issues of nay the principle of coalition-politics and address a gamut of shortcomings that plague national interest, national security in particgovernment coming under avoidable stress. the internal security structure of the country. ular, and to institution building.

Maharashtra Chief Minister Prithviraj ChaTwo years (more than 700 days!) have van’s barb at his Home Minister and coalition since passed, but the NCTC has yet to come OVERLOOKING A SIGNIFICANT RECOMpartner Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) into existence. No wonder, each incident MENDATION saying that it should not have been in the throws the entire government machinery In this process, a very significant initiative Home Ministry, was in bad taste and avoidinto helpless confusion. One wonders if that comprehensively reviewed India’s interable. It does not take away from the collective nal security policy in the wake of 26/11 and responsibility of the government, or the joint made detailed recommendations, including responsibility of the two coalition partners. articulating an internal security doctrine, for Chavan’s inapt and inept comment cannot creating a well-networked internal security hide the incompetence of the state governarchitecture, as also a NCTC has been comment run by the two parties and of the Conpletely overlooked and ignored. The second gress Party, which removed Chief Minister Centre-State Relations Commission (SCRC) Ashok Chavan in the wake of the Adarsh Socichaired by Justice M M Punchhi and its Task ety scam and transplanted Prithviraj Chavan Force 5 (TF5) on ‘Criminal Justice, National from national politics to state politics, which Security and Centre-State Cooperation’ reportedly he accepted reluctantly. (chaired by Ved Marwah) set up by it have Soon after the 26/11 attack in 2008, the done some hard thinking on this matter. In government faced strong criticism for its failfact, following the 26/11, the TF5 purposely ure to preempt the unprecedented devoted itself to designing a frameand ghastly terror attack in which ten work for counter-terrorism within terrorists sneaked in unnoticed. Not the overarching security architecture only did the Union Home Minister of the country, with the much Shivraj Patil and then Maharashtra ignored and reviled police station at Chief Minister Vilasrao Deshmukh the foundation. lose their jobs, the Government of The TF5 has laid considerable India moved with alacrity to set up emphasis on the commonly-scorned with fanfare the National InvestigaIndian police as the cornerstone of tion Agency in 2009, to assuage puban arrangement for internal security. lic anger over the government’s inacIt stressed that the war on terror cantion in creating a credible counternot be won by creating a supra-speterrorism apparatus. RV Raju, a discialised anti-terror body, as it cannot tinguished officer, was selected to be won just by enacting more and head the NIA. The NIA has since been more specialised anti-terror laws. assigned for investigation of three The NCTC has to seek the support of cases of terrorism, but it is yet to regthe police, were it noted was ‘overister success and is reported to be worked, overstretched, ill-recruited, facing difficulties in coordinating ill-trained, ill-equipped, ill-paid and with the plethora of organisations. ill-motivated’. Therefore, it felt that Turf battles have been amongst the ‘(a) comprehensive and holistic biggest impediments to efficient effort at reforming and refurbishing policing in India. Naturally, they the functioning of the police is a come into play strongly in special highly urgent demand of the time.’ cases such as terrorism.

Insulation of the police from political In the discussions that followed, interference and its withdrawal from setting up of a National Counterthe VIP and ‘bandobust’ duties, Terrorism Centre (NCTC) was also which virtually waste its limited discussed. In fact, just before the secresources, was the need of the hour. ond UPA government was sworn in, Hence, various reports on police SADNESS TINGED WITH ANGER: As the city was Dr Manmohan Singh asked his staff reforms needed to be brought out to subjected to yet another series of bomb blasts, the rage to prepare a road map to ‘overhaul strengthen the foundation of public of the people at political inactivity is palpable and modernise’ internal security security in India.

MUMBAI HAS BEEN SINGLED OUT

BY TERRORISTS FOR CLOSE TO TWO DECADES

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g INTERNALSECURITY

Terrorist Attacks in Mumbai since 1993 Date July 13, 2011 November 26, 2008

Source: http://www.satp.org

July 11, 2006 August 25, 2003 July 29, 2003 April 14, 2003 March 13, 2003 January 27, 2003 December 6, 2002 December 2, 2002 February 27, 1998 January 24, 1998 August 28, 1997 March 12, 1993

Place Serial blasts in Mumbai Multiple terrorist attacks across the city 7 blasts at 7 locations in local trains across the city Gateway of India and Zaveri Bazaar Ghatkopar Bandra Mulund Railway Station Vile Parle Mumbai Central railway station Ghatkopar Virar Malad Near Jama Masjid 13 blasts across the city

Among the major initiatives of the TF5 report was to propose an internal security doctrine for India. It proposed: Internal security can be defined as ‘security against threats faced by a country within its national borders, either caused by inner political turmoil, or provoked, prompted or proxied by an enemy country, perpetrated even by such groups that use a failed, failing or weak state, causing insurgency, terrorism or any other subversive acts that target innocent citizens, cause animosity between and amongst groups of citizens and communities intended to cause or causing violence, destroy or attempt to destroy public and private establishment.’

The first paragraph of this significant articulation has been incorporated in the final report. Apart from removing ambiguity, it unambiguously delineates areas on which to focus.

The TF5 report found the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act, 2008 (UAPA) inadequate to deal with terrorist crimes. It recommended, inter alia, legal admissibility of confessions before the police, a statutory obligation on the part of the accused to assist the court, i.e., taking away the ‘right to silence’.

The NIA created in 2009, too, needed toning up in several respects. First, the NIA cannot take up any investigation suo motu; it needs the permission of the Central government. Second, since the investigation of a case by the police, and it is to be underlined that once the NIA (like the CBI) takes up a case for investigation, the investigating officer gets the powers of an officer-in-charge of a police station. It is a quasi-judicial function www.geopolitics.in

Killed 18 166

Injured 131 300

181

890

50 3 1 11 1 0 3 9 0 0 257

150 34 0 80 25 25 31 0 1 3 713

POLITICAL AND SECURITY ESTABLISHMENTS HAVE NOT GOT THEIR ACT TOGETHER TO FIGHT TERROR and when the process gets going the executive must not interfere. Third, the permission or direction from the Centre clause introduces an element of delay, which could prove costly. Fourth, the delay in taking up or entrusting a case to the NIA may lead to destruction of, or tampering with the evidence, which is incident-specific. The TF5, therefore, recommended changes in the nomenclature of the NIA to National Counter-Terrorism Agency, which should have a countywide jurisdiction to collect intelligence, in cooperation with the state police, and take preemptive measures. It recommended taking care of legal loopholes in the present NIA. The TF5 recommended the new agency to be named National Counter Terrorism Agency (NCTA) and be designed as the nodal agency for the purpose. It should coordinate its activities with the state police and security agencies and ‘undertake holistic measures for pre-emption, prevention, detection, and control of terrorist activities, and other scheduled offences covered under

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the NIA legislation, including the investigation of such crimes if and when they actually take place.’ Sofar as investigation of terrorist crimes and other scheduled offences covered in the NIA Act is concerned, the state police agencies and the NCTA ‘should have concurrent jurisdiction in the administration of the amended Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act, with the stipulation that every crime, as soon as it is committed, should be promptly registered by the state police of the jurisdiction concerned and its investigation taken up in the right earnest, if the case is not taken up by the national agency — under its own original jurisdiction — in the first instance itself. If and when the national agency decides to take over any particular case for investigation, the jurisdiction of the state agency concerned over that case will automatically cease.’

These are a few of the salient points made in the exercise undertaken under the rubric of the SCRC by its TF5. It is not to contend that they necessarily cover everything or are foolproof, but they do provide a framework that must be taken into account.

A national response to the menace of terrorism has to be non-partisan, which calls for a consensus on major issues and instruments of counter-terror by all the major parties. Partisan politics over terrorism is not conducive to a cohesive response. Indeed, the initiative has to come from the government, which means the ruling party or combine. It not only has to present a united front, but present political ground and framework for a united front.

The Congress has already negated what it asserted in its election manifesto of the 2009 general election. The party manifesto had clearly said: “Our policy is zero-tolerance towards terrorism from whatever source it originates”. And, “The Indian National Congress recognises the imperative of police reforms.” The BJP manifesto too, made similar statements: “State governments will be provided with all assistance to modernise their respective police forces and equip them with the latest weaponry and communications technology. This will be done on a mission-mode approach. The police are the first responders to any crisis situation. Drawing lessons from experience, police forces will be trained and fully equipped to deal with situations similar to that of Mumbai and in meeting the challenge posed by Maoists and insurgents. Obviously, it is time for the major parties to walk the talk.

(The author is Honorary Director, Centre for Public Affairs, Noida) August 2011

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DIPLOMACY

BEYOND ELECTIONS Yingluck Shinawatra has got an emphatic public endorsement of her politics.

But will it be enough to bring political stability in Thailand?

INDIA, IRAN AND SHANGHAI COOPERATION ORGANISATION

THE DRAGON: PHILANTHROPY OR POLITICS?

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g Best neighbour P

AKISTAN MAY be under tremendous international pressure, particularly from the United States, to shed its double standard on terrorism. But at the moment, and this may appear ironical, it has a great understanding neighbour in India.

Take a look at the facts: the Manmohan Singh government has slowly and steadily given up India’s standard practice of making bilateral talks with Pakistan hostage to terrorist incidents in the country as is evident from the just-concluded Foreign Minister-level parleys despite the terror attacks on Mumbai on July 13. Second, in the parleys held on July 27, the only progress that was made pertained to Kashmir, which Pakistan considers to be the core issue bedeviling relations between the two countries.

New agreements were arrived at to augment the movement of goods and people across the Line of Control, both qualitatively and quantitatively.

And third, and this is going to be formally announced anytime now, India has decided that from November 1, more and more Pakistanis will be given “Visa-exemption sticker” for visiting India. The scheme, under a previous SAARC Agreement, would ensure that those with the sticker will not be limited to visit only specific cities and will not be required to report to the local police as is the current practice for Pakistani visitors.

This will help Pakistani journalists, sportspersons and businesspersons.

The scheme, though meant for all the SAARC countries, is going to benefit the Pakistanis most, because other SAARC nationals have not had much difficulty in coming to India.

And this despite the fact that Pakistan refuses to implement many SAARC measures, particularly those regarding trade, just to deny India any advantage.

Indeed, India is trying hard to become Pakistan’s best neighbour!

New team

I

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thedailystar.net

flickr.com

NDIA NOW has a new foreign secretary Prasad, Special Secretary (Public Diploin Ranjan Mathai. But what about his macy). Of these, Prasad is going to Nepal immediate senior colleagues? The MEA as the Ambassador. Katju will retire in has now six secretarylevel officers at the Headquarters — Vivek Katju, Secretary (West); Sanjay Singh, Secretary (East): Manbir Singh, Secretary (Economic Relations); Ajai Choudhry, Dean, FSI: RB Mardhekar, Special Secretary (Special Projects); and Jayant Madhusudan Ganapati Pinaki Ranjan Sudhir Vyas

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August and Singh will retire in September.

Thus there will be at least two senior vacancies, as Prasad’s post may be abolished. As of now, only one name is being heard of as a definite secretary-level replacement — that of Madhusudan Ganapati, currently Indian High Commissioner at Mauritius. Two other names that are doing the rounds for these high-level appointments are that of Pinaki Ranjan Chakravarty, Ambassador to Thailand, and Sudhir Vyas, Ambassador to Germany. But the last word has not been heard.

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g Behind Time

Transfer season

topnews.com

A

GREAT transfer season involving other senior postings lies ahead in the Ministry of External Affairs.

The number of vacancies at the Ambassador-level in India’s diplomatic missions all over the world that one is about to see is mind-boggling. India will have new ambassadors to the US, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, Mauritius, Thailand, Indonesia, Argentina, Brazil and Mexico, to name a few.

Many of the present incumbents are going to retire. So, it is going to be a Herculean task for the new Foreign Secretary to fill them up. One thing is sure; he is going to come under tremendous pressure, particularly from his Foreign Minister and the Prime Minister, while choosing the right people in the right places.

Of course, the prize posting at Washington DC has been decided with the political appointment of the just-retired Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao. It has also been decided that Rakesh Sood, presently Ambassador to Nepal, will move over to Paris.

We’ll keep you posted.

D

IPLOMATS ARE not known to be publicly communicative.

But Nirupama Rao as the Indian Foreign Secretary had squeezed in time to break the communication barriers between her ministry and ordinary people by responding on Twitter to queries on Libya, Somali pirates and other crises affecting the country. The initiative had earned Rao wide praise and support.

Surprisingly, in her last days in office, which witnessed the allimportant Foreign Minister-level talks with Pakistan, she was not that communicative. One did not see her Tweets being prominently displayed on the MEA website (www.mea. gov. in).

In fact, looking at the website, one notices that some sections are not updated regularly, unbecoming of the foreign office of a rising global player. For instance, at the very top of the site, there is a column for “Visits”, on clicking which one can see the incoming and outgoing visits. At the time of filing this column, one sees under the outgoing head: “May 17, 2011 PM’s visit to Ethiopia and Tanzania”. The incoming head mentions “March 30, 2011 Visit of FM of Bahrain”. Mind you, this is the fag-end of July and we just witnessed the visit of Pakistan’s strikingly charming Foreign Minister, Hina Rabbani Khar!

Rakesh Sood

Nirupama Rao

Diminishing charm

I

T TOOK more than a month for the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) to publish its new guidelines tightening rules for transfer of enrichment and reprocessing (ENR) technology to countries that have not signed the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). While the decision to put out new guidelines was taken at the NSG plenary meeting in Noordwijk, Netherlands, on June 23-24, the new guidelines were only published on July 28.

But what did India, the most-affected party if these guidelines are enforced, do in the mean time? In fact, not much other than extracting assurances from the visiting leaders of the United States, Japan and New Zealand that the India-specific safeguards of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that allowed India to keep its nuclear weapons programmes outside its ambit, would be honoured as decided before the conclusion of the Indo-US nuclear deal in 2008.

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Ask the MEA officials whether they are sure that India would not be affected adversely because of the new restrictions and the answer you are likely to get is silence. And what is worse — and this speaks of the limits of our diplomatic capacity — it took more than a fortnight on the part of the Foreign Office to get a copy of the new guidelines passed in June. Unsure of the exact wordings, India just did not know what remedial action it should undertake. Such was the secrecy that the NSG member countries like US, France and Russia — who are not only friends of India but also those that have to gain the most in nuclear trade with India — did not part with the text of the new guidelines. In fact, Indian diplomats are perplexed about this, though they brazenly cover up their diminishing charm in collecting vital information for the country.

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FAREWELL TO REVOLUTION? If the entrenchment of democracy in Latin America has taken the shine off various guerrilla movements, why can’t the same happen in India which is facing growing threats from the ultra-Left Naxalites? Can India learn from Latin America, asks ASH NARAIN ROY

O

NE-TIME Marxist rebels now occupy important seats of power in Latin America, including the presidency. After years of seeking power through the barrel of a gun, dozens of former guerrillas have found their way to the corridors of power through the ballot box. In 2009, Jose Mujica, who served a 14-year jail term for waging a war against the state as a Tupamaro guerrilla, and Mauricio Funes of Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front, which fought a bloody 12-year civil war between 1980 and 1992, were elected Presidents of Uruguay and El Salvador, respectively.

Several former Marxist guerrillas are now members of Parliament in El Salvador.

A former member of the M-19 guerrillas in Colombia is a senator. Alvaro Garcia, www.geopolitics.in

DYING EMBERS: In country-after-country in Latin America, the Marxist guerrillas have been defeated, tamed, pacified, outmanoeuvred or brought into the democratic process Bolivia’s Vice-President, was a leader in the Tupac Katari guerrilla army that bombed 48 pipelines in the late 1980s and the early 1990s. Brazilian President Dilma Rouseff joined the guerrilla movement against the military dictatorship and spent three years in prison before becoming an economist.

The Shining Path in Peru, by far the most powerful Maoist guerrilla group, has been tamed after its leader Abimael Guzman was captured in 1992. The Zapatista movement in Mexico has lost its shine. Armed struggle for power is winding down in Latin America. Most radical left movements have bent their ideological swords into plowshares.

Most have abandoned armed struggle as a means of transforming society.

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Are there lessons here for India, battling against Naxalites, to learn from the Latin American experience? The integration of former guerrillas and violent movements into the democratic process has vindicated what Che Guevara had said in 1962 in his book, La Guerra de Guerrillas: wherever the trappings of democratic rule prevailed, taking up arms was pointless.

In country-after-country in Latin America, the Marxist guerrillas have been defeated, tamed, pacified, outmanoeuvred or brought into the democratic process. How is it that Maoist violence in India has gained in intensity even though India has much better democratic credentials? It is indeed paradoxical that a country with the August 2011

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SHINING PATH AND MAOISTS USED INTIMIDATION TO FORCE THE SUPPORT OF PEOPLE

second-highest growth rates should find itself in the throes of a largely agrarian rebellion inspired by an ideology that has lost its lustre in much of the world.

For tribals and other oppressed classes which have become victims of unbridled social oppression and police brutality, Naxalism/ Maoism does not represent an ideology but a struggle for livelihood. The various Maoist groups have carved out a political role for themselves and moved in to fill the vacuum created by the failure of the unresponsive system to generate a modest measure of distributive justice. Poverty and deprivation in the “Dandakaranya region” and elsewhere provide breeding grounds for Naxalism. The Naxalite struggle seems to combine both dayto-day resistance to oppression from various quarters and the creation of new democratic awareness among the poor. www.geopolitics.in

Peru’s Shining Path began in the late 1960s as a small Communist revolutionary group led by Guzman, more or less around the same time when the Naxalites came to the fore in India. The Shining Path drew on Marxism and the example of Fidel Castro’s Cuba and coalesced into a significant and violent guerrilla army, which regularly used, terrorist tactics to destabilise and overthrow the Peruvian government.

The similarities between the Shining Path and the various Maoist outfits in India are striking. Hence the need to analyse what India can learn from the Peruvian experiences in handling the red terror. The Left in Latin America has largely abandoned armed struggle as a means of transforming society. Are Indian Left revolutionaries ready to trade their revolutionary convictions for reformist positions? To put it differently, will they be forced to retreat by the power of democracy and its decentralised and responsive governance?

The Shining Path began its “People’s War” against the Peruvian state in 1980. It was able to gain support from the peasantry through rural high schools and university students. But later the rural people turned against them. In the beginning, the guerrilla movement received support as the Maoists not only taught in schools and worked in villages, but they also targeted “public enemies”, who were exploiting the poor. The indigenous people supported the Maoist guerrillas in an apparent battle against wealth, corruption and bureaucracy.

Why did the peasant masses in whose interest the Shining Path purported to be waging “People’s War” turn against Maoist insurgency? It was because of brutality.

When they became the victims of terror, that support evaporated. Passive resistance from the indigenous people eventually led to a planned opposition. Guzman, Shining Path supremo, used to say, “The triumph of the revolution will cost a million lives.”

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Ballot boxes were burnt and the guerrillas even hung like stray dogs from lamp posts as a warning to “capitalist dogs”. The Naxals did exactly the same in the 1960s and the early 1970s. This was billed the “People’s War” but the role of the indigenous people remained incongruous.

Guzman did use indigenous legends and heroes to arouse sentiments. He also tried to link the Shining Path to the 18th century Inca movement led by revolutionary Tupac Amaru II, but the role of the indigenous remained minimal. Since the indigenous people harboured resentment against the upper class non-tribals for the exploitation that they suffered for decades, they did join the movement in the initial years. The Shining Path was based more on class struggle and anti-imperialism than on the indigenous people. Aren’t the Maoists in India doing the same?

Another similarity is in the use of scaretactics and intimidation to force the support of the indigenous people, often slaughtering those who showed even minimal signs of wavering. Those who have come out of the Naxal fold narrate pretty much the same story. The glorification of the indigenous culture and references to their heroes had the intended objective of appealing to the aspirations of the exploited. Soon, the indigenous people themselves became victims at the hands of the guerrillas.

No other revolutionary group displayed the kind of brutality that the Shining Path did. According to the New York Times, the group often hacked its victims to death with machetes to save ammunition.

According to the Truth and Reconciliation Commission in Peru, 69,280 lives were lost in the insurgency that lasted two decades.

Three out of four victims were Quechuaspeaking members of Peru’s biggest indigenous group. What an irony that the people who paid the price for this war were the native highlanders, the rural population that the Shining Path was allegedly freeing from oppression! Today, the Shining Path has transformed itself into a narco-trafficking group in the ruthless pursuit of power and profits.

If the entrenchment of democracy in Latin America has taken the shine off the various guerrilla movements, can better governance and better development models for the tribals resolve the Maoist challenge?

(The author is Director, Institute of Social Sciences, Delhi) August 2011

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DIPLOMACY

THE GREAT GAME IN CENTRAL ASIA Will the SCO expand itself to accommodate the aspirations of a ‘pariah’ Iran? Will India show enough energy to sneak into the organisation, which may antagonise the USA? The geopolitical calculus seems to be murky, writes UDDIPAN MUKHERJEE

A

T THE Tenth Summit meeting of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) in the second week of June 2011 at Astana, Kazakhstan, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, predictably, roared: “Which one of our countries (has played a role) in the black era of slavery, or in the destruction of hundreds of millions of human beings?”

At the same venue, he called for a postSoviet security alliance against Americabacked West. He has made it a habit, in tune with Hugo Chavez and Fidel Castro, to lambast the US-specific leaders in particular at important platforms. His personal traits notwithstanding, domestic pressures and internal discontent could be assumed to provide the necessary fillip for such explosive demagogy. www.geopolitics.in

In 2009 at Yekaterinberg, Russia, the Iranian President had echoed similar sentiments, with special emphasis on a single currency for intra-SCO trade and an exclusive ‘energy club’.

If Strategic Forecasting’s (STRATFOR) analysis is to be relied upon, “Iran spent the better part of the past decade using its nuclear program (or the threat of one) to try to get a primo spot at the world’s geopolitical table.” In case of Iran, STRATFOR further contends: “Highly publicise your progress on a nuclear program, stir in a reputation for irrational behavior you’ve got a brilliant strategy for getting concessions from major powers.”

Nevertheless, it is clear that Iran strongly aspires to be SCO’s seventh full member: a desire the cocooned SCO doesn’t really seem to relish. Iran currently holds an observer status in the group and had applied for full membership in a request filed on March 24,

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2008. From a geopolitical perspective though, a bonding between Iran and the SCO could only benefit the regional cartel.

Iran is world’s second-largest natural gas producer and if clubbed with SCO, would enhance the energy capabilities of the group and hence uplift its negotiating powers with the rest of the world.

Moreover, an expansion of SCO is overdue and with Iran expressing an earnest desire, it seems logical that the glue must be searched. More so, since the primary (unstated) objective of SCO was to erect a security alliance vis-à-vis North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), which was apparently stated through the aim of addressing religious extremism and border security in Central Asia.

In the post-1979 era, after the Khomeiniled Islamic Revolution in Iran, and August 2011

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g DIPLOMACY BATTING FOR PEACE STRATEGIC COUNTERWEIGHT: India has been hesitant to join the group that was originally created to limit the hegemonic influence of America

furthermore with the ascension of Ahmadinejad, it seems somewhat certain that it would be difficult for Iran to forge a ‘workable’ relationship with USA, at least in the foreseeable future. And in the unholy backdrop created by Washington’s manoeuvres to the extent of browbeating a defiant Iran, the bilateral equation of the two countries does not appear to be analytically solvable. In such a scenario, Iran as a full member could only provide fillip to SCO since the latter’s primary motive was to construct a multipolar world, challenging US dominance.

Additionally, since Russia may act as a viable mediator in the 5+1 party talks with Iran with regard to its allegedly ‘clandestine’ nuclear programme, inclusion of Iran in SCO can only provide ‘negotiating leverage’ to Russia and by group extension, to China.

Such a measure, due to its natural fallout, would also strengthen the strategic objectives of these two countries in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC).

Hence, it was no wonder that the Deputy Head of Tajikistan’s Centre for Strategic Research, Seifollah Safarov, underlined the positive outcomes of Iran’s membership in the SCO. To quote him: “Changing Iran’s membership status in the Shanghai Organisation will provide further grounds for cooperation among the organisation’s members in confronting security threats that have targeted the region.”

According to Wan Chengcai, a Chinese expert on Russian foreign policy, SCO is constantly growing in stature which is www.geopolitics.in

understood from its appeal to countries like Mongolia, Iran, India, Pakistan and, of late, Afghanistan.

INCLUSION OF IRAN, INDIA AND PAKISTAN INTO SCO CAN COMPLICATE MATTERS FOR THE REGIONAL BLOCK Despite the apparently favourable bonding parameters, all is not well between Iran and SCO. Russia and China do not want a rhetorically violent Iran with its ‘pariah’ tag.

That is why Russia has ‘urged’ Ahmadinejad to conform to the guidelines of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and get on with the 5+1 party talks. It is veritably clear that the SCO doesn’t prefer to openly antagonise the US, at least at the present juncture. On the other hand, the elasticity of the SCO is being challenged.

INDIA’S EQUATION WITH THE SCO While putting into effect Indian foreign policy, there has been an incessant conflict between idealism and realism, with the former winning on the majority of occasions.

An obvious criticism has been that India led

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too much focus on idealism at the cost of national interest. It is also a fact that power projection has never been the adopted methodology for New Delhi.

Sunil Dasgupta and Stephen Cohen in their paper for The Washington Quarterly are correct to assert that ‘strategic restraint’ has been India’s doctrine. They conclude thus: “Linear projections of current trends do not predict India abandoning its strategic restraint; for that, it will require a major and unforeseeable disruption at home or abroad.”

On bilateral terms, India’s relations with Russia have been more than cordial. Even after the fall of communism, and post-9/11 American dominance in the world order, Indo-Russia ties, especially in defence has leapfrogged. With Central Asia, (after 1991) India has remained tentative; mainly because of the ‘territorial disconnect’ due to the presence of Pakistan and also because the former being a land-locked region.

Nevertheless, as and when opportunities existed, like during the Russian invasion of Afghanistan (1979-89) and after 9/11, India has skillfully projected its ‘soft power’ in Afghanistan and tried to use the ‘land of Abdali’ as the launching pad for Central Asia.

However, New Delhi has been diffident to even accept the establishment of an air base at Ayni near Dushanbe in Tajikistan.

However, as far as joining the SCO is concerned, India never expressed its desire earnestly. Like Iran, India is an SCO-observer, but has never been overly ambitious to claim a permanent membership, unlike Iran.

In the Summit-meetings of the SCO, India’s Prime Minister had been hardly visible, except in Yekaterinberg, 2009. Finally, after sufficient dilly-dallying, India at last expressed its intent of being a permanent member in 2010.

WILL THE SCO EXPAND? In an article in the Central Asia — Caucasus Analyst (August 2009), Richard Weitz posits a viable reason: “Why the SCO has not designated new members since its founding, or new formal observers since Iran’s accession in 2005, is that, despite numerous attempts, the SCO governments have been unable to define the legal basis for such expansion”.

Moreover, SCO, for obvious reasons is keen to pull in the energy-rich Turkmenistan into its fold, whereas the latter has always exhibited diplomatic coyness. Ashgabat is part of the August 2011

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g DIPLOMACY Central Asian geopolitical framework, both terms of topography and history. So, if the SCO has to expand, its first preference must be Turkmenistan and not Iran. India, on the other hand, might not be a distant proposition, till Russian persuasion exists. But the obvious impediment to include India would come from three quarters.

First, from India itself, as New Delhi’s strategic restraint doctrine would hardly let it free itself from the Holy Grail of Nehruvian dogma and openly adhere to Realpolitik.

Furthermore, it might not be prudent for India to displease the US by joining a security framework, which is basically antithetical to US interests.

The second is the China-Pakistan factor.

SCO has made it almost clear that if India has to be co-opted, then Pakistan would come as part of the ‘package’. China insists on such a configuration as it would not allow the rising Asian power to challenge its authority in the SCO; in conjunction with Russia. Moscow, on the other hand, would prefer a scenario in which India joins the SCO without Pakistan. But it has to be kept in consideration that any extension of SCO to integrate South Asia, naturally must go through Afghanistan and Pakistan. India may not appreciate such a formation, but it is to a large extent, inevitable.

AMERICA-BAITER: Like Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and Cuban leader Fidel Castro, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has made it a habit to lambast the US at international platforms

‘expanded’ SCO, India might not get such an advantage and to what extent the present Indian political dispensation is ready to take up challenges of such genre is perhaps not difficult to fathom.

On the other hand, a recent RAND study alleges that Iran continues to provide ‘measured’ support to Taliban insurgents in Afghanistan and also maintains close relations with the same Afghan central government that is battling Taliban forces. The research rules out any abatement in confrontation between Iran and the US. In such an atmosphere, it seems highly unlikely that the US would welcome any moves by the SCO to accommodate Iran.

Interestingly, Iran and India have shown similar modus operandi in Afghanistan. Both the countries provided support, (military aid

by Iran and logistical help by India), to the Tajik-dominated Northern Alliance, as a counterweight to the Taliban. Moreover, both the countries have pumped in major investment projects in infrastructure and education for Kabul. It won’t be preposterous to assume that these two states would harbour roughly similar modes of operation in Central Asia through the SCO. In that sense, SCO provides a decent platform for interaction to

And third, the SCO members must be wary of the inherent discord between India and Pakistan. Interestingly, at the Eleventh Summit of SCO, India’s External Affairs Minister had to face verbal bombardments from the Kazakh President regarding the progress in the Kashmir dispute. These are ominous signs for India. India had nonetheless fought bilateral issues with its ‘childhood enemy’ Pakistan in multilateral forums; viz. in South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), but that is a platform where India reigns supreme, both politically and economically. However, in an www.geopolitics.in

both these nations.

However, there are other impediments.

Inclusion of Iran, India and Pakistan into SCO can further complicate matters for the regional block. Iran suspects that Pakistan abets the Sunni-insurgent group Jundallah, which wreaks havoc at times within Iran.

And the plethora of bilateral matters plaguing India-Pakistan ties may come to the fore in an extended SCO. Such factors can easily dissuade the region-specific issues of Central Asia and make SCO an unnecessary bickering ground for ‘outsiders’, as far as the original members are concerned. At the same time, however, an enlargement of SCO can broaden its scope and widen its reach in the global geopolitical chessboard; with a resurgent Russia and intimidating China reaping most of the fruits.

WHAT’S IN STORE FOR THE FUTURE? Since independence, India has hardly deviated from its non-committal position in aligning with power blocks. Perhaps that is the perpetual backdrop, which adumbrates India’s incumbent Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s articulation: “India is too large a country to be boxed into any alliance.” Iran, on the other hand, presently is a Mullahdominated theocracy, the rudders of which are with a vociferous President.

Till Iran is under the umbrella of Shiite Mullaism and India holds the banner of its age-old foreign policy paradigm, a ‘strategic bonhomie’ between the two nations is an unlikely outcome; prevalent maybe in the writings of academicians and in the domain of wishful thinking.

Even if India and Iran share the same dais through the SCO, it is a definite possibility that India would keep a safe distance from Tehran and not antagonise the White House to any significant degree. Both nations want to be a part of the SCO for reasons specific to each. But a bilateral strategic partnership is not seen to be evolving out of the SCO. Before that occurs however, Iran’s asymmetric military doctrine (allegations of aiding Hezbollah and other Shiite insurgent groups in Middle East) and the India-Pakistan outstanding bilateral problems would continue to ensnare the SCO-veterans to allow a smooth direct entry for these two nations.

(Dr Uddipan Mukherjee is a strategic analyst at ITS [Landshut, Germany] and an Asstt. Prof. at BPPIMT, Kolkata)

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A NEW CHALLENGE FROM CHINA

Beijing is playing an increasingly important role on the international development scene by providing aid to many developing countries that closely resembles overseas investments. The elaborate Chinese aid system will pose serious challenges to India, particularly in Asia and Africa, unless New Delhi develops its own aid architecture, argues GULSHAN SACHDEVA www.geopolitics.in

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F

OREIGN AID and its effectiveness in promoting growth in developing countries has always been controversial. Immediately after the World War II when the idea of foreign aid gained acceptance, the international system was in transition. The process of decolonisation in the developing world coincided with the emergence of a bipolar international system. One of the main reasons behind the idea of development assistance was the success of American Marshall Plan in Europe. In the latter years, aid was also utilised as an instrument of power play between the two superpowers so that developing countries would not go to the “other side”. It was also a mechanism by which the European powers maintained their links with their former colonies.

Many scholars who tested the apparent motivations behind foreign aid found that donor interests dominate recipient needs.

The World Bank has concluded that research findings linking aid and growth in the developing countries are “discouraging to say the least”. Overall, the history of development assistance has been dominated by geopolitics and evolution in development thinking.

The Development Assistance Committee (DAC) of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development (OECD), which monitors global aid trends, defines the Official Development Assistance (ODA) as “the sum of grants and loans to aid recipients that are: (a) undertaken by the official sector of the donor country; (b) with promotion of economic development and welfare in recipient countries as the main objective; and, (c) at concessional financial terms, where the grant element is equal to at least 25 per cent”.

All major Western donors are members of the DAC. International aid is bilateral, which is given from one country directly to another, as well as multilateral, which is given by the donor country to an international organisation like the World Bank or UN agencies, which in turn distribute it among the developing countries.

Currently, about 70 per cent of aid is bilateral and the rest is multilateral. From 1960 to 1990, ODA flow from DAC countries to developing countries rose steadily. It declined in the 1990s but has been rising again over the last decade, mainly because of reconstruction activities in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Despite the recent financial crisis, ODA flows reached $126 billion in 2010. Traditionally, the US has been a major donor. Other important donors have been the EU and its member states and Japan.

In recent years, aid flow from some nonwww.geopolitics.in

CHINA HAS CREATED A HUGE PROFILE FOR ITSELF, IN AFRICA AND ASIA, THROUGH AID traditional donors such as China and India has been a topic of discussion. Since both China and India are not members of the OECD, their aid figures are not easily available and their activities are not analysed in scholarly aid-literature. As a result, there has been relatively less understanding of their aid activities. Although both of them have argued that their aid activities are part of SouthSouth cooperation, many scholars remain skeptical about their claims. Moreover, both the countries have never presented systematic data of their aid activities to the larger audience. It has been difficult to quantify their activities, particularly that of Chinese aid. Compared to western donors, their aid has also been administered in an ad hoc fash-

ion without a regular system and funding schedule. This, however, seems to be changing, at least, in the case of China.

Recently, the Chinese government released a white paper on its aid activities.

This is, perhaps, the first time that the Chinese government has presented its aid activities in a systematic manner. The paper reveals that China’s foreign aid began in 1950, when it started providing assistance to North Korea and Vietnam. This was later extended to other socialist countries. Its aid to Africa started in 1956. In 1964, China declared “the Eight Principles of foreign aid”, the core of which featured equality, mutual benefit and no strings attached. In the 1970s, it funded the Tanzania-Zambia Railway and other major infrastructure projects. When the Chinese economy opened up in 1978, it diversified its activities. In the 1990s, when its economy was booming, it also diversified the sources of funding.

Actually, some of the Chinese foreign assistance resembles Western ODA. However, a major portion of its aid can be characterised as foreign investment. This is the reason why Chinese aid statistics are quite different from many reports produced by American think tanks. According to the Chinese White Paper, its aid falls into three categories: grants, interest-free loans and concessional

FLEXING ITS SOFT POWER: China has been raising its profile around the developing world with a multitude of aid programmes in more than 120 countries. Major recipients of Chinese aid are marked in red (see story).

MAURITANIA

GHAN

PERU

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g DIPLOMACY loans. While concessional loans are provided by the Export-Import Bank of China, the other two come from government finances directly. By 2009, China had provided foreign aid amounting to 256 billion yuan (about $40 bn). This included $16 billion in grants, $12 billion in interest-free loans and $12 billion in concessional loans. In contrast, some American reports had earlier indicated Chinese aid activities to the tune of $75 billion only for the period between 2002 and 2007. Obviously, they had included many state-sponsored or subsidised overseas investments into these activities.

It seems that China has also developed its own aid management system. Overall, it is the Ministry of Commerce, which is responsible for the formulation of foreign aid policies, regulations, approval and management of the aid projects. The Executive Bureau of International Economic Cooperation, China International Centre for Economic and Technical Exchanges and some officials of the Academy of International Business are responsible for implementing projects. All these activities are closely coordinated by the Chinese embassies or consulates. Different departments including the Ministry of Com-

CHINA’S AID ACTIVITIES IN AFRICA AND LATIN AMERICA SERVE PRIMARILY ECONOMIC INTERESTS merce submit their projects every year to the Ministry of Finance for scrutiny and then to the State Council and National People’s Congress for approval.

By 2009, China had provided concessional loans to 76 countries, supporting 325 projects, of which 142 had been completed. Out of the total concessional loans, 61 per cent were used to construct transportation, communications and electricity projects, 16 per cent for industrial projects, while 9 per cent were used to support the development of resources such as oil and minerals.

Chinese aid is offered in eight categories

— complete projects, goods and materials, technical cooperation, human resource development, medical aid, emergency humanitarian aid, provision of volunteers and debt relief.

Since the early 1950s, when it stated its activities in North Korea, China has completed more than 2,000 projects. By 2009, China had organised 4,000 training sessions in over 20 fields in human resource capacity building and trained over 120,000 people from a large number of developing countries. Currently, about 10,000 people receive training every year. Starting from Algeria in 1963, China has also sent over 21,000 medical workers to other countries, and treated 260 million patients in about 70 countries. In 2009, 60 Chinese medical teams composed of 1,324 medical workers were providing services at 130 medical institutions in 57 developing countries.

Over the years, China has also dispatched about 8,000 Chinese-language teachers.

By 2009, China had aided a total of 161 countries and 30 international and regional organisations. About 123 developing countries receive Chinese aid regularly. Of them, 30 are in Asia, 51 in Africa, 18 in Latin America and the Caribbean, 12 in Oceania and 12

TAJIKISTAN

SYRIA

MALTA

NEPAL BANGLADESH PAKISTAN

EGYPT

MYANMAR LAOS

SUDAN

GHANA

YEMEN

ETHIOPIA

CAMBODIA SOMALIA

CAMEROON RWANDA

SRI LANKA

KENYA

CONGO TANZANIA COMOROS ZAMBIA

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BOTSWANA

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SCRAMBLE TO AID: Unless India develops its own aid architecture the intricate Chinese aid mechanism will be the cause of potent challenges to India, especially in Asia and Africa in Eastern Europe. Africa and Asia received about 46 per cent and 33 per cent of total Chinese aid respectively.

China has put emphasis on building some high-visibility landmarks. These include the Bandaranaike Memorial International Conference Hall in Sri Lanka, the Friendship Hall in Sudan, the National Theater of Ghana, Cairo International Convention and Exhibition Centre, the Radio and Television Broadcast Centre in Comoros, the International Convention Centre in Myanmar, Moi International Sports Centre in Kenya, Multi-Functional Sports Stadium in Fiji and the Tanzania National Stadium.

Some of the more than 450 infrastructure projects include Sana’a-Hodeida Highway in Yemen, Karakoram Highway and Gwadar Port in Pakistan, Tanzania-Zambia Railway, Belet Uen-Burao Highway in Somalia, Dry Dock in Malta, Lagdo Hydropower Station in Cameroon, Nouakchott’s Friendship Port in Mauritania, railway improvement in Botswana, six bridges in Bangladesh, one section of the Kunming-Bangkok Highway in Laos, the Greater Mekong Sub-region Information Highway in Myanmar, Shar-Shar tunnel in Tajikistan, No.7 Highway in Cambodia, www.geopolitics.in

and Gotera Interchange in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. In the industrial field, some important projects include Hama Textile Mill in Syria, Cement Factory in Rwanda, Rioja Cement Factory in Peru, Agriculture Machinery Factory in Myanmar and Loutete Cement Factory in Congo.

These facts clearly indicate that through aid activities China has created a huge profile for itself, particularly in Africa and Southeast Asia. Its activities are driven primarily by its desire to secure and transport natural resources for its booming economy. Its aid activities in Africa and Latin America serve primarily economic interests. In South and Southeast Asia, however, activities are also linked with strategic objectives. Despite some negative reporting about the increasing Chinese profile in Africa, it seems that many African governments still see China as a nonimperial alternative player, which can offer an alternative route to development. Compared to the OECD donors and multilateral institutions, Chinese aid is often made available relatively quickly. It is also normally without conditions and bureaucratic procedures. Instead of typical tough donor-recipient negotiations, Chinese aid and investment

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activities are announced at bilateral summit meetings. In addition, China does not hesitate in entering into countries, areas and sectors avoided by western donors due to political or security reasons.

Overall, it is clear that China will be playing an increasingly important role in the international development scene. Many Chinese activities closely resemble overseas investments rather than aid. Normally FDI and commercial loans are not counted as aid.

But the Chinese situation is complicated because of subsidised overseas investments by the public sector. These contracts are secured through government agreements and normally do not impose risks on participating Chinese companies or result in foreign assets. They look more like aid projects than FDIs. So, compared to traditional donors, the Chinese development role is going to be relatively different. With its institutional structure in place, its activities in future will be more systematic. Although most western donors have moved towards untied aid, Chinese aid continues to be tied.

The elaborate Chinese aid system poses serious challenges to India. Unless India is also able to develop its own aid architecture, it will be increasingly difficult to counter China with ad hoc measures. India’s major aid activities in Afghanistan and evolving Africa policy could provide some useful lessons. The Chinese mechanism also provides a lesson that non-traditional donors do not have to follow typical OECD guidelines. India has some experience of implementing the Indian Technical & Economic Cooperation (ITEC) programme as well as lines of credit programme through the EXIM Bank. Though useful, these programmes are still very small compared to the emerging needs of a rising India.

Over the years, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) has dominated development cooperation programmes. The emerging Indian development cooperation architecture may need an independent agency to plan, coordinate and implement various aid activities. Obviously, it will have to closely coordinate its activities with the MEA, line ministries, NGOs and think tanks. The agency will also have to collect and present data concerning aid activities to the global audience. Existing donors provide enough examples of how this agency can be organised. To begin with, the Indian government can also come up with its own White Paper on aid activities so that an informed debate can be initiated.

(The author is Associate Professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University) August 2011

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PEOPLE VERSUS

POWER

PEOPLE POWER: The elections were sought in search of order and stability, but results have upset the powerful coalition of vested interests

In the recently-concluded elections, the Thai people rejected the elitist military-monarchybureaucracy nexus and opted for the restoration of democracy. But then, given Thailand’s recent history, Yingluck Shinawatra, its 43-year-old Prime Minister-designate, will have to move cautiously and work for national reconciliation, argues SD MUNI

T

HERE APPEARS to be a fresh, though feeble, breeze of democratic resurgence in Southeast Asia.

The prospects of the ‘jasmine revolution’ caused a stir in China but died out as the administration suppressed it.

In Myanmar, through the combined pressure of the international community and popular uneasiness, the generals had to shed their uniforms and make some space for representative forces in the governance of the country.

The opposition in Singapore asserted itself by inflicting an electoral defeat on its very able Foreign Minister in a politically significant constituency. And now the Thai people, in elections held on July 3, 2011, have decisively reiterated their disapproval of the politics of coups, and the dominance of the monarchy-military-bureau-

www.geopolitics.in

cracy coalition in the polity. It, however, remains to be seen if the popular Thai verdict, unlike elsewhere in Southeast Asia, has the strength to sustain itself and not succumb to the pressures of the entrenched vested interests and the power-establishment.

The question of the sustainability of the outcome of the July election arises from the conflictual and turbulent context in which it was held. The previous governments of Thaksin Shinawatra and his associated parties have been thrown out by the monarchy-militarybureaucracy combine since 2006. The now outgoing Democratic Party government, installed by the entrenched power establishment, was forced out by massive protests by the Royalists (Yellow Shirts) and the democrats (Red Shirt, not necessarily anti-monarchy Republicans, as is alleged). The elections were sought and granted

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in search of order and stability, but their results have upset the powerful coalition of vested interests, who do not seem to have reconciled with the unfavourable outcome.

In the July 3 polls in Thailand, the Pheu Thai (PT) party came out victorious; securing 265 of a total of 500 parliamentary seats. PT’s lineage can be traced back to Thai Rak Thai, the party initially floated by Thaksin Shinawatra to secure his electoral sweep in 2001. PT’s social base is from the large segments of densely-populated rural areas in Thailand’s north and northeastern regions from where the Shinawatras hail. PT’s leader and Thaksin’s younger sister, 43-year-old business woman Yingluck Shinawatra efficiently blended Thaksin and his old team’s strategy, the aspirations of the rural masses, the family charisma of the Shinawatra clan and her own personal charm and youthful ingenuity, to August 2011

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MANOEUVRING TACTFULLY: Yingluck Shinawatra will have to continue showing the resilience and creative imagination that she has displayed so far deliver a strong political message to the entrenched power establishment that had ousted and exiled her brother.

To expand the rural base of her party and appeal to urban and industrial sectors, she promised to bring about a national reconciliation and increase minimum daily wages to 300 Baht. She also tried to reach out to the youth by offering a tablet computer each to students, and to the middle class consumers by promising to reduce fuel prices. This enabled her to make a dent in the opposition strongholds among the middleclasses in central Thailand, including Bangkok.

Yingluck also tried to soften the alienation of the insurgency-fraught Muslim south, which disliked her brother because of his ruthless approach. She promised them autonomy but this did not work as indicated by her party’s poor performance in southern Thailand.

The ruling Democrat Party (DP), led by Prime Minister Abhishit, came a poor second in the election by capturing 159 seats. The number was short only by six from the strength of the party in the outgoing parliament, suggesting that it broadly retained its strength in its strongholds in the central region, particularly Bangkok and the southern Thailand. DP draws its strength from the socially-entrenched and elitist sections like monarchy, military and the bureaucracy. One of its main campaign planks against PT was that it was an anti-monarchy group. Barely two www.geopolitics.in

weeks before the elections on June 15, the powerful Thai army chief, General Prayut Chan-OCha appeared on national television and while promising that the army would stay neutral in the elections, and asked the voters to apply “sound and reasonable judgment to make our country and our monarchy safe and have good people running our nation”. The DP leader and Prime Minister Abhishit lauded his government’s achievements in drug suppression, economic development and expansion of tourism and sought votes for stability, which according to him, only his party could provide.

The fact that Thailand’s power-establishment has not been able to reconcile with the PT’s decisive victory is indicated in a number of legal cases filed against its victorious candidates by the DP contestants and supporters with a view to unseatting them. There is also a case filed by the royalist Yellow Shirt group for the de-recognition of the PT , alleging that the party was being virtually run by the fugitive convicted leader Thaksin, who has been avoiding jail even after being held guilty of corruption charges. The Election Commission (EC), after keeping it in suspension for a while, has finally cleared the election of PT leader and the prime ministerial hopeful, Yingluck. The EC has the power to annul the election of any candidate on such charges. The possibility of the PT’s strength being reduced under this provision cannot be

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ruled out. Almost one-third of the elected candidates, including those of DP and other smaller parties, are still awaiting the endorsement of poll results by the EC. These court cases and petitions to the EC against the PT look like attrition tactics designed to keep the victors from proceeding with their suspected plans of granting amnesty to Thaksin and bringing him back to Thailand.

The power-establishment is also carefully watching the moves of government-formation and would resist inclusion of such Red Shirt leaders who have been marked out by them as staunch opponents. It is hoped that power will eventually be transferred to the PT party and its leader Yingluck will be allowed to head the new government. There were reports in the media (Asia Times, June 30, 2011) that through secret parleys in Dubai between representatives of Thaksin, on the one hand, and those of the military and monarchy on the other, an understanding was reached that Yingluck would be allowed to form the government unopposed in return for a promise that none of the Thai Generals involved in the coup of 2006 and the crackdown against the Red Shirt protesters in 2010, will be subjected to political revenge or legal persecution. The new government will also not interfere with military affairs, including its annual reshuffle and leadership selection.

Even if there is no such understanding between the adversary camps, the Thai army will have to think twice before interfering with the process of transfer of power, either through a coup or constitutional/electoral manipulation, in view of the size and decisive nature of the mandate. In fact, the army was prompt to endorse the victory of PT with an assurance that it will not interfere. The generals, and hopefully the entire power-establishment, realise that a majority of the people are not with them. As they could not suppress or convert the opposition even after five years of coups and autocratic pressures, withholding a victorious party from access to power would also prove futile. Yingluck has also moved smartly by establishing a coalition by joining hands with four smaller parties (Chart Thai Pattana-19 seats, Chart Pattana Puea Pandin-7 seats, Phalang chon-7 seats and Maha chon-7 seats) and taking the total tally of her supporters to 299. This gives her a strong cushion against any attempt by the EC to cut down the size of her victory.

The conflict of interests between the entrenched-establishment and the popular aspirations represented by the Shinawatra clan are real and deep-rooted. The establishment, in the given context, may wait for some time to see if the popularity of Yingluck gets eroded as she confronts difficult challenges of governance in the months to come. If that happens, the army, with August 2011

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g REGIONALPRISM the blessings of the monarchy and the help of bureaucracy, may then strike against the PT government in some form. Voices from within the DP are already being raised in this direction. One of the DP leaders, Wirat Kalayasiri, who is also a legal expert of the party, warned that if the PT failed to implement major pre-poll promises by early next year, the ‘labourers, students and the university graduates may seek its dissolution’.

Yingluck’s leadership will be tested in three areas as soon as she assumes office. Politically, the most critical issue is that of reconciliation. Thailand today stands divided between rural and urban masses, between the poor and the rich, between democratic aspirations and autocratic vested interests, between north and south. The ailing Monarch even makes the ageold institution fragile and indecisive. It is because of these divisions that Yingluck’s promise of ‘reconciliation’ had appealed to the voters. There are strong pressures within her party to work for securing amnesty, not only for her brother Thaksin Shinawatra, but also for party stalwarts who were charged with criminal offenses and not allowed to participate in the elections under the prevailing laws. Many of them are also aspiring to secure important positions in the new administration. If this issue has to be resolved amicably, the military, bureaucracy, judiciary, and wider public opinions have to be taken along. Yingluck cannot pursue the policies of her brother to hit at the base of vested interests in order to create an alternative power structure. She has to avoid provoking them and adjust with them. In this task, she lacks political experience and is acutely aware that there are constitutional provisions and even strong emotional and political resistance from the defeated power-establishment which can thwart her initiatives. Therefore, she also has to nudge her own brother and his senior associates in the party towards the approach of reconciliation so as to avoid direct confrontation. It is indeed a smart move on her part to initiate changes in the Constitution through referendum to facilitate political reconciliation on popularly acceptable terms.

Then there is the question of the Thai economy and her pre-election promises of raising minimum wages, reducing fuel prices, providing jobs and computers, etc. Some of her senior party colleagues like Suchart Thadathamrongvej, a former Finance Minister, have claimed to have developed a plan for raising minimum wages without any financial sacrifice on the part of the industrial sector. This may involve a cut in the corporate tax rate as indicated by Yingluck. Thaksin has also promised big projects to stimulate the economy.

There are similar claims with regard to other pre-poll promises as well. However, Thailand www.geopolitics.in

HOPING FOR PEACE: It remains to be seen if the popular Thai verdict has the strength to sustain itself and endure the attack of entrenched vested interests has yet to recover from the last global financial crisis and another one is already looming large. There are also estimates that the growth in the Thai economy may halve this year.

Many Small Manufacturing Enterprises (SMEs) are concerned about rising inflation and increasing interest rates. The agricultural sector has also declined over the past two decades.

The new government would indeed require bold and imaginative policies to carry its economic agenda forward.

No less daunting is the challenge on the front of security and foreign policy. Insurgency in the south continues unabated. Blasts have been reported even after the peaceful conduct of elections. Yingluck’s promise of autonomy in local governance to the three southern provinces would be a useful basis of engagement, provided her opponents — the army in particular — go along with her. The army has also stained Thailand’s relations with its immediate neighbours like Myanmar and Cambodia. The UN had intervened to ask Thailand to withdraw its troops from the Cambodian border. The politics of coups and instability has made Thailand the sick man of ASEAN. Only stability and democratic governance with a peaceful approach to the neighbours could restore its image in the regional grouping.

Yingluck’s brother had also spoiled relations with international organisations like the IMF

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and the US as he enthusiastically cultivated China. That is, perhaps, why the US almost kept quiet and endorsed the 2006 coup against him.

Yingluck has tried to warm up to the US after her elections and the US has decided to lend support to the reassertion of democratic aspirations in Thailand. This may also help deter any internal moves to disturb PT’s new government.

Though the challenges before Thailand’s new rulers look formidable, they are by no means impossible to meet. What is required on the part of the new leadership, especially Prime Minister-designate Yingluck Shinawatra, is to show resilience and creative imagination that she has displayed so far. If needed, she should be prepared to soft-peddle and keep on hold some of the policies and ideas of her elder and more experienced brother Thaksin Shinawatra in the long-term and larger interest, not of his own and that of the Pheu Thai party, but of peace, stability and progress of all the Thai people. It is also desirable on the part of the power-establishment that it realises the political ground reality and accepts the popular wish to move Thailand forward under the leadership of Yingluck. Personal and ideological conflicts should not be allowed a larger role than enlightened national interests.

(A former Indian Ambassador to Laos, the author is a Visiting Research Professor at the Institute of South Asian Studies, Singapore) August 2011

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EXCERPTS

BANKROLLING PAKISTAN’S NUCLEAR BOMB In The Darker Side of Black Money, BV KUMAR points out that black money is not just a matter of financial misdeeds; it also has security repercussions for the country. In this extract, the author gives an account of the Bank of Credit and Commerce International (BCCI) fiasco, and the role it played in financing Pakistan’s nuclear weapons

P

AKISTAN’S AMBITIOUS nuclear weapons programme, which had “developed significantly in recent years”, could have been funded from secret accounts held by the BCCI, British intelligence agencies have revealed, reports said. Intelligence sources said funding for the nuclear weapons programme, “which has emerged as a vast clandestine operation”, could also be traced to BCCI accounts, The Times, reported on July 22. It also ran a secret worldwide cashtransmission network to fund a joint effort

by Argentina, Libya and Pakistan to acquire nuclear arms, the Guardian, reported on July 26. The Guardian said its information was based on sources inside and outside, the bank and interviews with dissident Pakistanis in exile. “It is likely that many of the black holes in BCO’s accounts totalling $ 10 billion so far and rising can be put down to transactions connected with the nuclear bomb project.” It said that the network operated for over a decade to provide huge sums for a series of attempts to buy nuclear bomb components, and some of them were successful. The Guardian added that the BCCI also arranged air freight, shipping and insurance for the components and provided agents of the secret consortium with operating money and legal counsel if they were arrested and faced criminal charges. It said agents were arrested in the Netherlands in 1983, but gave no details. The Guardian, also quoted, unnamed intelligence sources as saying the BCCI was used as a conduit for www.geopolitics.in

Author- BV Kumar Konark Publishers, Pages-225, Price- `295 Year of Publication-2011

payments to nearly 500 Britons on the payroll of the US, Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). It said the payments were made over ten years to two BCCI branches in London.

The Guardian said that Samir Najmeddin, described as the head of the Fatah Revolutionary Council, was allegedly having accounts in BCCI on behalf of Abu Nidal.

Najmeddin, an Iraqi businessman, supplied arms to Saddam Hussain and to Argentina during the Falklands war.

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The NBC Nightly News reported on August 7 that evidence showed that BCCI was involved in financing Pakistan’s clandestine nuclear weapons programmes, as could be seen from some documents uncovered by the Canadian authorities. ‘They pinpoint BCCI’s involvement in a deal to come up with over $3,33,000 for the purchase of special metal alloys needed to build machinery to process enriched uranium for nuclear bombs,” it added. It quoted intelligence officials having said that the uranium was processed at a secret facility in Pakistan.

The facility was shown on the television screen. Successive governments in Pakistan denied Pakistan having a nuclear weapons programme. In one of his interviews the late President Zia told NBC that Islamabad had neither the intention nor the capability of having a nuclear bomb. However, US Senate Government Affairs Committee Chairman, John Glenn said on August 6 that there was no truth in Pakistani denials. “We have been lied to, for many years about the whole Pakistani nuclear weapon programme from the highest officials in Pakistan on down,” he observed. Even the Bush administration did not believe in Islamabad’s assertion and it had suspended economic and military assistance to the tune of $ 560 million to that country. The NBC said American authorities hoped to get at the bottom of the BCCI’s links with Pakistani nuclear weapon programme by extraditing from Germany a retired Pakistani General who was arrested in Frankfurt in July 1991. Brig (Retd.) Inamul August 2011

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g EXCERPTS Haq, who was arrested on July 11 was extradited to the USA to face charges that he masterminded a plot to evade the US Customs laws in shipping sensitive strategic materials to Pakistan. The Bush administration probed further BCCl’s links with Pakistan following a spate of reports in the Western media that the bank had been secretly financing Pakistan’s nuclear programme. Pakistan denied the charge, saying its nuclear programme was only for peaceful purposes. But Islamabad’s refusal to allow inspection of its nuclear installations by international monitoring agencies reinforced speculation on the nature of Pakistan’s nuclear ambitions. Islamabad also rebutted charges that the BCCI had been financing its nuclear programme.

Responding to questions, a Pakistan Foreign Office spokesman on August 7 stated that the retired Brigadier had no official links with the Pakistan Government. He further stated that Brig. Inamul Haq had sought consular assistance from the Pakistan Embassy in Frankfurt and this was being provided to him. He was described as a private businessman. In Lahore, Mr. NajafHussain Shah, counsel for Brig. Haq contended that his client was not involved in any illegal activity, nor had he travelled on fake documents. He stated that Brig. Haq had gone to Germany on a valid visa for a routine meeting with M/s Vdo Adlof Schindling A.G. of Schwalback in connection with a joint venture business in Pakistan. He also denied that Haq had any links with the BCCI, or that he was carrying any document relating to BCCI or any other was fake document recovered from him. The counsel also stated that a case had already been filed in the US, seeking withdrawal of the warrant of detention since he had been wrongly implicated in the case. Mr. Haq had been detained in connection with the Arshad Parvez case wherein he was indicted for his alleged involvement in a conspiracy to export, without a validated export license, special steel, listed in the commodity control list. This steel is required in the production of nuclear weapons. Senator John Glenn, Chairman of the US Senate Government Affairs Committee, in the meanwhile stated that the BCCIs involvement in the case could be a “smoking gun” that would help US investigators unravel the mystery of how Pakistan’s nuclear programme has been financed. He has asked the US Department of Justice to probe the possible role of BCCI in Pakistan’s nuclear programme. US and German intelligence agencies had reportedly identified Mr Haq as a buyer for the Pakistan Atomic Energy www.geopolitics.in

Commission. He was the driving force behind the whole thing, said Amy Kurland, an assistant US attorney in Philadelphia, referring to the earlier case in which she had prosecuted Arshad Parvez. According to the charges, Mr. Haq had directed Parvez to enter the US to buy a special high-strength steel that requires a US export license. Documents found by Canadian officials in Parvez’s house showed that the financial preparations for the proposed $ 3,33,000 steel purchasing deal involved the London and Toronto branches of the BCCI holdings.

Reports emanating from Washington {Associate Press, August 12, 1991 indicate that Pakistan made use of five other banks to finance the smuggling of sensitive nuclear technology for its clandestine nuclear weapons programme. (Washington Post, August 11, 1991) The Washington Post reported from Georgetown, Cayman Isands, where the BCCI has its headquarters that the clandestine programme to acquire material for a nuclear bomb during the 1980s through a global banking system made it relatively easy to finance cross-border smuggling of sensitive technology. The Post said that there was only one instance where BCCI was found to be involved in the clandestine Pakistani nuclear programme by the US and European investigators. The total detected cases were five. Several banks with no roots in Pakistan-Hong Kong and Shanghai Bank, Standard Chartered Bank International and First City National Bank of Houston-also received or moved money in some of the five smuggling cases, according to court records and other documents. The sources of money for smuggling operations are still unclear but prosecutors and others involved in the cases say they believed it probably came from funds budgeted for Pakistan’s atomic energy programme.

One reason Pakistan had little difficulty paying for clandestine acquisitions of nuclear technology, investigators say, is that international banks that arrange financing for air and sea shipments of goods from country to country are under no obligation to check whether the materials being transported are legal. Even under US laws US based banks issuing letters of credit to finance shipments of such restricted items as nuclear materials are not required to examine whether approval has been obtained from the US Government or whether the shipment contains illegal goods. In one case, this loophole allowed two California exporters, Arnold I and Rona K. Mandel to ship over a year’s time $ 1.8 million worth oscilloscope, computers and other restricted nuclear related

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technology equipment to a Hong Kong middleman, who then sent it to Pakistan. The Mandels did not have the required US Department of Commerce export licenses.

They simply wrote a Commerce Department application number on various forms and the banks and airlines involved passed the shipment through. The Mandels pleaded guilty to felony charges and a federal court sentenced both to prison terms in July 1991.

Press reports in Pakistan indicated that the BCCI donated about $ 10 million in late 1980s to a science foundation supervised by a prominent Pakistani nuclear scientist, but these donations apparently were made well after Pakistan had acquired the bulk of its nuclear technology. Several US Senators including Alan Cranston and John Kerry alleged that Islamabad might have bankrolled the nuclear acquisition programme through the BCCI. When Senator Cranston raised questions about likely link between the BCCI and Pakistan’s “nuclear project” at a Senate hearing, Mr. Jack Blum, a former investigator said ‘The problem that we are all having to deal with this bank is that it has 3000 criminal customers and every one of those 3000 criminal customers is a page one story. So, if you pick up anyone of these accounts, you could find financing for nuclear weapons, gun running, narcotics dealing, and you will forward all manner and means of crime around the world in the records of this bank.”

“BCCI is functioning as the owner’s representative for Pakistan’s nuclear bomb project,” said an international businessman who worked through the bank to supply Pakistan’s nuclear-weapons and missile industry. Time wrote that while munitionscontrol experts in the US had evidence that BCCI played a role in the delivery of munitions grade nuclear hardware and technology to Iraq and Iran, it was the Pakistanis who were the chief beneficiaries of Abedi’s multifarious services. “You can’t draw a line separating the bank’s black operatives and Pakistan’s Intelligence Services,” said an international arms broker, who provided details of recent BCCI generated orders for nuclear-bomb supplies for Pakistan.

(BV Kumar retired from the Indian Revenue Service after 35 years of service. He was Director General, Revenue Intelligence, Director General, Narcotics Control Bureau and Director General, Economic Intelligence Bureau) —Excerpted with permission from the publisher August 2011

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HE COVER story of this issue deals with the desirability or otherwise of India having a Chief of Defence Staff (CDS). It is widely believed that if any concrete decision on the matter is eluding, it is because of inter-services rivalry, with the Air Force and Navy fearing the prospect of the domination by the Army in case there is a CDS. I am not going to delve into the issue as our coverage deals with it in detail. Instead, I propose to discuss the overall phenomenon of inter-services rivalry.

First and foremost, inter-services rivalry should not be confused with inter-services competition. The latter is not necessarily an unhealthy phenomenon. Being proud of one’s own service, its uniform, doctrine or culture is a normal matter. It is fine if the naval officers are proud of the fact that the Navy all over the world has produced great strategic thinkers. One should not grudge if Prakash the Air Force officers think that they are not ordinary fighters and that they have a more sophisticated and technologically-oriented managerial mindset than their sister services. The Army people do have a point when they say that no war is complete until and unless their soldiers have physical control over enemy territory or interests. Similarly, honest differences of perspective are not unethical and can promote service morale, technological innovation, and adaptation of improved strategy or doctrine.

The problem arises when this competition turns into rivalry affecting ‘jointness’ or coordination among the three services. The Army, Navy and Air Force may have their respective “core values” to help members focus on professional performance. Yet, all of them must have joint solidarity and responsibility in carrying out national missions. Any lack on this score makes the country weak. The services cannot, therefore, afford or promote a sense of what is called “divided allegiance” where members must demonstrate loyalty to different superiors and organisations. Instead, they should remain united. That is what military morality or ethics is all about.

Having said that, it is to be admitted that inter-services rivalry has existed in some form or the other in almost all the countries. It continues to be problematic for harmonious joint military activity. All told, the world’s first separate air force, the Royal Air Force (RAF) of Britain, was developed partly out of a competitive impasse over resources between the Royal Flying Corps (RFC) and the Royal Naval Air Service (RNAS). Similarly, during the early days of American airpower, there was constant friction between the United States Navy and Army personnel.

There are reams of papers exposing how during the Vietnam War, the United States suffered due to the rivalry and lack of integrity on the part of personnel from different

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services. We do come across, from time to time, the contentious topic of the traditional Air Force-Army debate in the United States over the concept of “close air support”.

The Army complained that during the past wars, the Air Force went back to its bases rather than going ‘joint’, and the Air Force retaliating that the Army, “wasn’t looking for help but was looking for reasons why they had to have their own tactical air force”.

In a way, we have seen this happening in India from time to time. One can cite the examples of the Indian Air Force resenting the Navy’s idea of having separate fighter aircraft. In fact, the Air Force is also not comfortable with the Army having its own helicopter wings. On the other hand, the Indian Army officers have often complained how during the Kargil operations in 1999 and Indo-Pak war of 1965, the Indian Air Force was found lacking in providing due support and coordination.

Nanda When one talks of India’s great military success in 1971, it is to be noted that a considerable role was played by the joint planning and operations under the leadership of then Chairman, Chiefs of Staff Committee, Field Marshal Sam Manekshaw. That was the reason why soon after the war, Prime Minister Indira Gandhi was the first to suggest the appointment of Manekshaw as Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) with a unified Staff. But this was vehemently opposed by the then Naval Chief, Admiral S M Nanda, and the then Air Chief, Air Chief Marshal P C Lal. In fact, in India, inter-services rivalry has sometimes been deliberately nurtured by some governments, the idea being that rivalry among the services will ensure that there is no coordinated plot to succeed against the civilian leadership at a time when almost all the important neighbours of India — Pakistan, Bangladesh and China — have had military dictatorships (in China, the Communist regime has remained intact precisely because of the firm support from the People’s Liberation Army). Besides, in our country the civilian bureaucracy has also played a role in exacerbating inter-services tensions. The bureaucracy has ensured that the systems are such that various military wings fight among themselves over funds, equipment and/or the maintenance of historical roles at the cost of an agreed strategy involving all.

But then, it is also a fact that all major democracies are evolving systems to minimise the inter-services differences and promote ‘jointness’. In the United States, the Goldwater-Nichols Act, discussed in our cover story in detail, has been largely successful in containing the differences. India also needs a similar provision.

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prakashnanda@newsline.in August 2011

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