Geopolitics_March_2011

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PAKISTAN’S GROWING NUCLEAR ARSENAL

geopolitics VOL I, ISSUE XI, MARCH 2011 ` 100

D E F E N C E D I P L O M A C Y S E C U R I T Y

GROWING

A BRITISH

CARRIER FOR INDIA?

DANGER OF SMALL ARMS

A GENTLEMAN OFFICER

DEFENDING AGAINST

IN KASHMIR

MISSILE ATTACKS

MAKING A CHOICE TIME TO TAKE A FINAL CALL ON THE MULTI-ROLE FIGHTER AIRCRAFT GATHERS MOMENTUM

Document1

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COVER STORY (P42)

The Final Decision The Indian Air Force seeks early induction of multi-role fighters into its arsenal, considering the growing air power of China and Pakistan.

GLOBAL WATCH (P10)

FUNDING EVIL LeT raises piles of cash, often during the Haj pilgrimage, or through private donations, NGOs and madrasas; thereby being a great source of financing the global terror. A close look at the issue.

Form IV (See Rule 8) GEOPOLITICS 1. Place of Publication : New Delhi 2. Periodicity of Publication : Monthly 3. Printer’s Name : K. Srinivasan Whether Citizen of India? : Yes (If foreigner, state the : Not Applicable country of origin) Address : 4C Pocket-IV, Mayur Vihar, Phase-I, Delhi-110091 4. Publisher’s Name : K. Srinivasan Whether Citizen of India? : Yes (If foreigner, state the : Not Applicable country of origin) Address : 4C Pocket- IV, Mayur Vihar, Phase-I, Delhi-110091 5. Editor’s Name : K. Srinivasan Whether Citizen of India? : Yes (If foreigner, state the : Not Applicable country of origin) Address : 4C Pocket- IV, Mayur Vihar, Phase-I, Delhi-110091 6. Name, Address : 4C Pocket- IV, Mayur Vihar, of individuals who own the Phase-I, Delhi-91 newspaper and the partners 1. Renu Mittal or shareholders holding more 2. K. Srinivasan than one per cent of the total capital I, K. Srinivasan, hereby declare that the particulars given are true to the best of my knowledge and belief.

Date: 1st March, 2011 sd/K. Srinivasan Publisher

DEF BIZ (P18)

DIPLOMACY (P68)

DEF BIZ (P24)

HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF

THE WAY FORWARD

HUNTING FOR SUPERB SUBS

India could very well save British pride if it buys one of the Royal Navy aircraft carriers that has been phased out of service.

www.geopolitics.in

If China shows due respect to India's sensitivities on its vital interests, together they can play a decisive and constructive role in the 21st century global politics.

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The Indian Navy is planning to induct new submarines whose roles will extend far beyond and under the deep oceans.

March 2011

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STRATEGIC MOVE (P30)

GENERAL'S HEALING TOUCH (P52)

SMALL IS DEADLY (P55)

IT'S WORRISOME (P60)

In order to protect the country from possible attacks of ballistic missiles from Pakistan and China, India is developing a multi-layered ballistic missile defence system.

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain finds Budshah's clairvoyant message “The heart is my weapon” still potent and relevant in today's Kashmir.

Given their horrible potentials, there is an urgent need to formulate a comprehensive policy to end the illegal trafficking of arms.

With the fourth nuclear reactor at the Khushab, Pakistan is augmenting its nuclear arsenal. Its steady accumulation of fissile materials is not good news at all.

SPECIAL REPORT (P34) THE AERO CHARM Spectacular fly-past and breathtaking aerobatic formations, a platform for business opportunities and partnerships, Tejas's debut, and much more — Aero India 2011 creates history.

FOCUS (14)

g GEOPOLITICS

SHIPPING WOES Editor-in-Chief

SEAGOING LIFE IS CHALLENGING AND

K SRINIVASAN

IT IS A FACT THAT AS LONG AS SHIPS

Editor

GO TO SEA, COLLISIONS WILL OCCUR.

PRAKASH NANDA

ONE SUCH RECENT UNFORTUNATE

Sr. Correspondent

CASE IS OF INS VINDHYAGIRI. ONE

ROHIT SRIVASTAVA Publishing Director

ROHIT GOEL

Director (Corporate Affairs)

Conceptualised and designed by Newsline Publications Pvt. Ltd., from D-11 Basement, Nizamuddin (East), New Delhi -110 013, Tel: +91-11-41033381-82 for NEWSEYE MEDIA PVT. LTD. Managing Editor: TIRTHANKAR GHOSH All information in GEOPOLITICS is derived from sources we consider reliable. It is passed on to our readers without any responsibility on our part. Opinions/views expressed by third parties in abstract or in interviews are not necessarily shared by us. Material appearing in the magazine cannot be reproduced in whole or in part(s) without prior permission. The publisher assumes no responsibility for material lost or damaged in transit. The publisher reserves the right to refuse, withdraw or otherwise deal with all advertisements without explanation. All advertisements must comply with the Indian Advertisements Code. The publisher will not be liable for any loss caused by any delay in publication, error or failure of advertisement to appear.

Owned and published by K Srinivasan, 4C Pocket-IV, Mayur Vihar, Phase-I, Delhi-91 and printed by him at Nutech Photolithographers, B-240, Okhla Industrial Area, Phase-I, New Delhi-110020.

Readers are welcome to send their feedback at geopolitics@newsline.in. www.geopolitics.in

OF THE VESSEL’S FORMER CAPTAINS

RAJIV SINGH

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LAMENTS.

PAKISTAN’S GROWING NUCLEAR ARSENAL

geopolitics VOL I, ISSUE XI, MARCH 2011 ` 100

D E F E N C E D I P L O M A C Y S E C U R I T Y

GROWING

A BRITISH

CARRIER FOR INDIA?

DANGER OF SMALL ARMS

A GENTLEMAN OFFICER

DEFENDING AGAINST

IN KASHMIR

MISSILE ATTACKS

MAKING A CHOICE TIME TO TAKE A FINAL CALL ON THE MULTI-ROLE FIGHTER AIRCRAFT GATHERS MOMENTUM

Cover Photo: Defence Minister A K Antony and Air Chief Marshal P V Naik at the Aero India 2011 Cover Design: Ruchi Sinha

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gONLOOKER HAVE YOUR HEAD EXAMINED!

ARMING GADAFFI

US DEFENCE Secretary Robert Gates bluntly told an audience of West Point cadets late February that the world was rapidly changing and it would be unwise for the United States to ever fight another war like Iraq or Afghanistan, and that the chances of carrying out a change of government in that fashion again were slim.

“In my opinion, any future Defense Secretary who advises the President to again send a big American land army into Asia or into the Middle East or Africa should ‘have his head examined’, as General MacArthur so delicately put it,” Gates told the elite West Point Army cadets.

Gates believes that the Army would have to reshape its budget, since potential conflicts in places like Asia or the Persian Gulf were more likely to be fought with air and sea power, rather than with conventional ground forces. “As the prospects for another head-on clash of large mechanised land armies seem less likely, the Army will be increasingly challenged to justify the number, size, and cost of its heavy formations,” Gates warned.

“The odds of repeating another Afghanistan or Iraq — invading, pacifying, and administering a large third-world country — may be low,” Gates said, but the Army and the rest of the government must focus on capabilities that can “prevent festering problems from growing into full-blown crises which require costly — and controversial — large-scale American military intervention.”

“Men and women in the prime of their professional lives, who may have been responsible for the lives of scores or hundreds of troops, or millions of dollars in assistance, or engaging or reconciling

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warring tribes, may find themselves in a cube all day re-formatting PowerPoint slides, preparing quarterly training briefs, or assigned an ever-expanding array of clerical duties,” Gates said and added: “The consequences of this terrify me.” He said his main worry was that the Army might not overcome the institutional bias that favoured traditional career paths. He urged the service to “break up the institutional concrete, its bureaucratic rigidity in its assignments and promotion processes, in order to retain, challenge, and inspire its best, brightest, and most battle-tested young officers to lead the service in the future”.

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COULD LIBYAN leader Gadaffi be using weapons produced in Europe to crush the revolt against his regime? As governments grapple with the uncomfortable issue, a new report details brisk weapons sales by EU states to Libya. The report says EU countries led by Italy and Malta have been busy peddling arms to Libya. First published in January, the report has attracted renewed scrutiny after an escalation of violence against a popular uprising in the North African country.

The EU document, which refers to annual figures in 2009, says the bloc’s member states granted export licenses worth 343 million euros ($470 million) to Libya. Italy was shown to have approved exports worth 112 million euros, the most taken up by military aircraft. It was followed by Malta which authorised the sale of an 80-million-euro consignment of small arms. Germany was third on the list, with 53 million euros of licenses, mostly for electronic jamming equipment used to disrupt mobile phone, Internet and GPS communication.

Analysts say the sales by themselves aren’t surprising. In 2003, Gadaffi agreed to abandon efforts to acquire chemical, biological and nuclear weapons, effectively ending his international isolation. The following year, the EU lifted an arms embargo on Libya. Libya at the time had a huge amount of old, out-of- date military equipment dating back to the Soviet era and was looking to modernise its armed forces. It was the perfect opportunity for western arms companies to get a foothold in this lucrative market and incredibly oilrich country. It’s a trend that’s continued.

While Russia remains the biggest arms supplier to Libya, European defence companies, mainly from France, Italy and Germany have been steadily increasing business ties with Libya. The US notably has largely kept out of the country’s defence market.

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O N L O O K E R

GETTING THE NUKES

SYRIA ESTABLISHED four additional nuclear facilities aside from the one bombed

by Israel in 2007, the US Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) reported late February.

The report explains that Syria’s nuclear programme was far more advanced than previously believed and included, in addition to the reactor destroyed at al-Kibar, a uranium conversion facility and three stor-

age sites. The conversion facility at Marj asSultan, according to the report, was apparently intended for processing uranium yellowcake into uranium tetrafluoride (UF4) for the al-Kibar reactor.

The facility’s current use is unknown, but the ISIS suspects that after the latter was bombed, Syria attempted to disguise its operations. The institute cites commercial satellite images as proof of this.

In a recent interview with the Wall Street Journal, President Basher Assad said: “Actually there is cooperation between Syria and the IAEA regarding the normal things like this reactor and this yellow cake, it does not see it every six months or a year, we have rules, but this time they asked Syria to sign the additional protocol that they can come any time. No, we are not going to sign. We can only follow the NPT that we are signatory to and we do not have any problem.

Nobody will accept to sign it; this is something about sovereignty: to come any time to check anything under the title of checking nuclear activities, you can check anything. We have many secret things like any other country and nobody will allow them.”

On the go EVER SINCE he became Foreign Secretary last May, William Hague has made it clear that he wants to provide Britain with a “distinctive foreign policy”, one that distances the Government from the “poodleism” of the Blair era, in which Britain’s reliance on its close relationship with Washington was deemed to be contrary to Britain’s own interests. Late February, Hague embarked on a whirlwind tour of the Middle East. By visiting Tunisia, Jordan, Yemen, Abu Dhabi and Bahrain, he was seeking to acquire a deeper understanding of the problems facing these very different countries, while at the same time offering advice on how they might best be resolved.

Similarly, Australian Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd quickly flew into Cairo on a two-nation trip to Egypt and Aleria.

Rudd said he had visited Tahrir square, the focal point of the protests that led to the resignation of President Hosny Mubarak on February 11, and congratulated Egyptians for expressing a “strong desire www.geopolitics.in

to establish democracy”.

Contrast that with the insipid Indian reaction and you know what we are talking about.

(Left) British Foreign Secretary William Hague with (right) Tunisian Prime Minister Mohamed Ghannouchi

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TALAL WARNS OF UPRISING

A SENIOR member of the Saudi royal family has warned that the oil-rich country could be harmed by the uprisings sweeping the Arab world unless it speeded up reforms. Prince Talal bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud told BBC Arabic that “anything could happen” if King Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz did not proceed with a programme of political transformation.

“King Abdullah ... is the only person who can carry out these reforms,” the prince told listeners and added, “On his departure, may that be in many years to come, latent trouble will surface and I have warned of this on many occasions.

We need to resolve the problems in his lifetime,” the prince added. He warned that if Saudi authorities “don’t give more concern to the demands of the people, anything could happen in this country”.

Here’s an excerpt from his recent oped piece in The Washington Post:”The majority of the Arab population is under 25, and the unemployment rate for young adults is in most countries 20 per cent or more. Unemployment is even higher among women, who are economically and socially marginalised. The middle classes are being pushed down by inflation, which makes a stable standard of living seem an unattainable hope. The gap between the haves and the have-nots is widening. The basic needs for housing, health care and education are not being met for millions.

“Moreover, Arab countries have been burdened by political systems that have become outmoded and brittle. Their leaderships are tied to patterns of governance that have become irrelevant and ineffective. Decision-making is invariably confined to small circles, with the outcomes largely intended to serve special and selfserving interests. Political participation is often denied, truncated and manipulated to ensure elections that perpetuate oneparty rule.”

March 2011

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PERISCOPE

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GEOPOLITICS

HAL dismisses concerns over its ability A LEAKED cable from the US Ambassador to India questioning state-owned Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd’s ability to collaborate with American firms to build advanced fighters has been dismissed by HAL. A British daily, The Financial Times, in a recent report, had cited US Ambassador to India Timothy Roemer as saying in a confidential cable last year that was leaked by WikiLeaks: “The potential for HAL to successfully partner with US firms on a truly advanced aircraft remains untested and suspect.” He had held India’s aviation industry as “two to three decades behind the US and other western nations” despite some advances.

After a trip to HAL facilities in

NEW RULES FOR DEFENCE LAND USE DEFENCE MINISTER A K Antony told parliamentarians the management of 17 lakh acres under his Ministry has been in focus following several scams. A new policy is being crafted that will address the issue of NOC (no objection certificates) in cases where the local laws require consultation with Local Military Authorities for allowing construction of buildings on land adjacent to defence installations. In cases where the local laws do not provide for it, the local

military authorities will not directly issue NOC, especially to private builders.

Admitting ‘gaps’ in the system, Antony said the Ministry was according top priority to computerise land records. He said that the government would amend the Works of Defence Act, 1903, which provided for restrictions on building activity around defence installations so that it was made relevant to present-day situations.The Act had not been amended for the last over 100 years.

CELEBRATION BRINGS CYBER AGENDA Bengaluru in February 2010, Roemer also expressed surprise at the lack of automation and safety precautions at the HAL plant. US companies need to “approach partnerships carefully to understand the management and technological experience of Indian firms”, he had said.

However, senior HAL officials have dismissed the concerns, citing the Bengaluru-based company’s considerable experience with Russian and British firms. N C Agarwal, director of design and development at the aircraft maker’s design complex in Bengaluru, is quoted to have said: “If the Americans really thought in this fashion, it is selfcontradictory to find them in the fray for the MMRCA (medium multi-role combat aircraft) deal.” Because, if selected, they have to partner with HAL. US companies, including Boeing Co. and Lockheed Martin Corp., are among those vying for the estimated $11 billion contract to supply 126 MMRCA for the Indian Air Force, offering the F-18 Super Hornet and F-16 Super Viper fighters, respectively.

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THE OUTCOME of cyber attacks has called for a relook at the planning and security of Command and Control infrastructure at the top levels of national governance and the right time was centenary celebrations of the Corps of Signals.

Defence Minister A K Antony, during the celebration, called upon the armed forces to be vigilant against emerging cyber threats and to keep abreast of latest technologies.

Terming the Corps of Signals as the “twenty-first century arm of our forces”, Antony said it had a major role in promoting inter-Service synergy and joint operations. “The Corps is at the forefront of transforming the Indian Army to a network-centric force. It must continuously enhance its ability to absorb latest technologies in collaboration with the Industry and R&D establishment. The contribution of the Corps in enhancing cyber security is worth a mention.”

Underlining that the modern warfare had undergone a paradigm shift, the Chief of Army Staff General V K Singh averred that the Corps of Signals had emerged as the proverbial “nervous system” of the armed forces in contemporary times. While, Minister of State for Defence, M M Pallam Raju, said, “Any serious disruption can jeopardise our functioning, including our responses to the war being raised by our adversaries.”

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g TWO NEW MOUNTAIN DIVISIONS

WITH AN eye on China’s growing military strength in Tibet, India has ‘fully raised’ two new mountain divisions with 30,000 troops in the northeast as a counter-measure and to shore up its

mountain warfare capabilities.

They are now fully functional.

The new mountain divisions have come up at a time when India’s security top brass is warily watching the massive upgrade of Chinese military infrastructure along the 4,057-km Line of Actual Control (LAC) — the ceasefire line as there is no demarcated border — in all the three sectors — western (Ladakh), middle (Uttarakhand, Himachal) and eastern (Sikkim, Arunachal).

The two new mountain divisions, raised at a cost of ` 700 crore, ` 7 billion each, will be under the command of the Rangapahar-based 3 Corps in Nagaland

Japan to take part in India-U US exercises THE JAPANESE Navy will take part, for the second year running, in the joint naval exercises by India and the United States. These will be held off the Okinawa coast, which has the highest concentration of US Marines in the region.

The Malabar series of exercises, from April 2 to 10, will include Japanese ships, in keeping with the growing proximity, in a wide variety of spheres, between New Delhi and Tokyo, said government sources.

India had stopped involving more countries in the Indo-US exercises after China, in 2007, sent demarches to all the participants of a five-nation naval exercise held in the Bay of Bengal. With last year’s Japanese participation raising no political storm, India was once again agreeable to the idea of allowing the Japanese Maritime Self Defence Force to participate.

Japanese interest in developing a robust defence cooperative arrangement with India comes even as a National Defence Programme Guidelines, released recently, mentions three countries as rising powers. Japan has a tense relationship with China and is still negotiating a peace treaty with Russia.

India is the only country with which it does not have security issues.

Framed after a gap of seven years and a failed attempt by the former Prime Minister, Yukio Hatoyama, the guidelines bring India www.geopolitics.in

into sharp focus. After mentioning the US and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), its traditional parameters, the guidelines state that Japan must increase its cooperation with India and other countries that share the common interest of enhancing the security of maritime navigation from Africa to the Middle East to East Asia.

By entering into a closer bilateral security relationship, India could, in future, get access to platforms and technologies that Japan had made its priorities in the defence arena, such as maritime patrol, air defence, response to ballistic missiles, transportation and command communications.

The previous attempt to institutionalise a US allies-plus India naval exercises had been abandoned after it drew fire from China. In 2007, a massive Malabar series exercise was held in the Bay of Bengal with the participation of the navies of India, the US, Singapore, Australia and Japan. The Left parties held demonstrations on the eastern coast. The issuance of demarches by China to all participants saw Australia, then under the Prime Ministership of Kevin Rudd, breaking ranks. This was followed by other countries also agreeing to go slow on the concept. But the uproar saw Defence Minister A K Antony denying any move towards creating a military bloc. “It’s only an exercise,” he had said.

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and the Tezpur-based 4 Corps in Assam of the Army’s Kolkata-based Eastern Command. The two divisions with 15,000 personnel each will further enhance the tactical strength of the Indian Army in the strategically important areas along the borders facing China, which claims the whole of Arunachal Pradesh as its territory.

Incidentally, there are plans to raise the ‘Arunachal Scouts’ and ‘Sikkim Scouts’ to prepare the country in meeting any eventuality from the Chinese side. India has also deployed a Sukhoi SU-30 air superiority fighter jet squadron in Tezpur as one of the aerial offensive measures apart from upgrading airfields and helipads in the northeast.

Naval divers set new record

A GROUP of naval divers on board INS Nireekshak, the Navy’s only diving support and submarine rescue vessel, has set a new national record by diving to a depth of 233 metres in the seas off Kochi coast, bettering a record of 218 metres attained by Navy divers in March 2007.

While Lieutenant Commander Abhijit Sangle and Chief Petty Officers (CPO) K K Singh and Shriom Singh ‘locked out’ in the submersible diving capsule — the bell in diving parlance — to execute the deepest dive on February 7, Leading Seamen Clearance Divers M K Prusty and Narender Kumar partnered in the mission by exposing themselves to the depth conditions in the ship’s Deck Decompression Chambers (DDC), an essential instrument of saturation diving.

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GEOPOLITICS

GLOBALWATCH

LeT OILS TERROR TRAIL WITH DONATIONS The incredible evil of the Lashkar-e-Toiba has now become more apparent, according to documents from the US State Department, as revealed by Wikileaks. Banned and outlawed, the Lashkar and its many avatars are like a multi headed hydra that refuses to be subdued. With every passing moment it raises the ante on terror and bloodshed, writes RAJEEV SHARMA

SOURCE OF FUNDING: Militants bank on madrasas also for their terror outfits

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I

T IS becoming clear that the US and other Western nations have failed to rein in one of the most resourceful and powerful terrorist groups in the world, the Lashkar-e-Toiba. According to the US State Department documents, the terrorist group spends over $ 5 million every year to recruit, train and launch terrorists not only against India but also against the US and other western nations. This money was spent by Zaki-ur Rahman Lakhvi, the jailed LeT operations commander “to purchase all materials required for LeT operations other than weapons and ammunition”.

The terrorist group generates this huge amount of money from private donations, NGOs, madrasas and business spread throughout South Asia, the Middle East and Europe. A substantial part of the funding comes from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait where LeT has considerable support not only among the Pakistani diaspora but also among Muslims from other countries.

Besides, the terrorist group also enjoys the patronage of the royal families and other high-ups in both these countries allowing it to solicit funds for terrorist activities quite openly.

The group, however, draws the maximum from Pakistan where businessmen, industry leaders, farmers and others donate freely for the terrorist cause. These donations are collected throughout the year, across Pakistan, sometimes in the name of religion and often, openly, for ‘jihad’.

The documents said while parts of the funds were used for charitable purposes, large portions were diverted to strengthen its terrorist infrastructure. One report showed how LeT’s charity front, Idara Khidmat-e-Khalq, in December 2005 was issuing Jamaat-ud-Dawa receipts for donations collected in Saudi Arabia. Jamaat is the parent body of LeT. The group operated through a “front company in Saudi Arabia where a LeT finance official may have been closely associated with the general manager possibly acting as a front for moving LeT funds”. Another memo confirms: “Saudi Arabia remains a critical financial support base for the al-Qaida, the Taliban, LeT and other terrorist groups, including Hamas, which probably raise millions of dollars annually from Saudi sources, often during Haj and Ramadan.”

Although Saeed himself does not travel abroad, fearing arrest or murder, it is his brother-in-law and second-in-command of the terrorist group, Abdur Rahman Makki, who travels frequently to Saudi Arabia and

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SAUDI ARABIA — CASH MACHINE FOR TERRORISTS SAUDI ARABIA is the world’s largest source of funds for Islamist militant groups such as the Afghan Taliban and Lashkar-e-Toiba — but the Saudi government is reluctant to stem the flow of money, according to Hillary Clinton.

“More needs to be done since Saudi Arabia remains a critical financial support base for al-Qaida, the Taliban, LeT and other terrorist groups,” says a secret December 2009 paper signed by the US Secretary of State. Her memo urged US diplomats to redouble their efforts to stop Gulf money reaching extremists in Pakistan and Afghanistan. “Donors in Saudi Arabia constitute the most significant source of funding to Sunni terrorist groups worldwide,” she said.

The cables highlight an often-ignored factor in the Pakistani and Afghan conflicts: that the violence is partly bankrolled by rich, conservative donors across the Arabian Sea whose governments do little to stop them. The problem is particularly acute in Saudi Arabia, where militants soliciting funds slip into the country disguised as holy pilgrims, set up front companies to launder funds and receive money from governmentsanctioned charities.

Militants seeking donations often come during the haj pilgrimage — “a major security loophole since pilgrims often travel with large amounts of cash and the Saudis cannot refuse them entry into Saudi Arabia”. Even a small donation can go far: LeT operates on a budget of just $5.25m (£3.25m) a year, according to American estimates.

The other major headache for the US in the Gulf region is the United Arab Emirates. The Afghan Taliban and their militant partners the Haqqani network earn “significant funds” through UAE-based businesses, according to one report. The Taliban extort money from the large Pashtun community in the UAE, which is home to one million Pakistanis and 150,000 Afghans. They also fundraise by kidnapping Pashtun businessmen based in Dubai or their relatives.

“Some Afghan businessmen in the UAE have resorted to purchasing tickets on the day of travel to limit the chance

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of being kidnapped themselves upon arrival in either Afghanistan or Pakistan,” the report says.

Last January US intelligence sources said two senior Taliban fundraisers had regularly travelled to the UAE, where the Taliban and Haqqani networks laundered money through local front companies.

One report singled out a Kabul-based “Haqqani facilitator”, Haji Khalil Zadran, as a key figure. But, Clinton complained, it was hard to be sure: the UAE’s weak financial regulation and porous borders left US investigators with “limited information” on the identity of Taliban and LeT facilitators.

In an effort to stem the flow of funds, American and UAE officials are increasingly co-operating to catch the “cash couriers” — smugglers who fly giant sums of money into Pakistan and Afghanistan.

In common with its neighbour, Kuwait is described as a “source of funds and a key transit point” for al-Qaida and other militant groups. While the government has acted against attacks on its own soil, it is “less inclined to take action against Kuwait-based financiers and facilitators plotting attacks outside of Kuwait”. Kuwait has refused to ban Revival of Islamic Heritage Society, a charity the US designated a terrorist entity in June 2008 for providing aid to al-Qaida and affiliated groups, including LeT. The funding quagmire extends to Pakistan itself, where the US cables detail sharp criticism of the government’s ambivalence towards funding of militant groups that enjoy covert military support.

The cables show how before the Mumbai attacks in 2008, Pakistani and Chinese diplomats manoeuvred hard to block UN sanctions against Jamaat-ud-Dawa.

But in August 2009, nine months after sanctions were finally imposed, US diplomats wrote: “We continue to see reporting indicating that JUD is still operating in multiple locations in Pakistan and that the group continues to openly raise funds.” JUD denies it is the charity wing of LeT.

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g GLOBALWATCH other Middle East countries to generate funds for the terrorist cause. He often seeks donations in the name of building a new school or upgrading madrasas in Pakistan.

Highly inflated costs of construction were projected to potential donors at a madrasa, enabling the group to siphon off the ‘charity’ funds to terrorist activities.

Another method, revealed by the leaked

JIHADIST VERSES WHILE PAKISTAN Army and civilian government are engaged with the US and other nations in fighting terrorism within their country as well as in Afghanistan, reports culled from the the Pakistani vernacular media show that the country was leaning more and more towards becoming a radical State than ever before. Religion and jihad was at the core of their operations.

Two recent incidents are telling pointers to this grave development. In November 2010, for instance, Al-Rehmat Trust organised a series of courses on ‘jihadist verses’ in Koran in more than 18 cities of Pakistan.

The Trust is a front for the Jaish-e-Mohammand, one of the most notorious terrorist groups operating from Pakistan with bases in Bahawalpur and Peshawar.

Jaish is headed by Maulana Masood Azhar, a former Harkat-ul Ansar rabble rouser, wanted in the 1999 Indian Airlines hijacking and several other terrorist attacks in India. According to the US Treasury Department, Jaish began using Al-Rehmat as a front organisation in 2002 after the former was banned by the US following the December 13, 2001 attack on the Indian Parliament. The trust was used to recruit a new set of terrorists for fighting the US forces in Afghanistan in early 2009.

Another report relates to October 2010 about the Taliban setting up schools on the outskirts of Karachi. These schools are terrorist schools where young students are taught bomb-making techniques and suicide bombings. One of the students, who was arrested by the police, said students were told that the Muslims were being subjected to brutality and it was their duty to take revenge.

It is not known how many schools and students are in these Taliban-run schools.

These are not the only Taliban schools. In fact, pro-Taliban madrasas have been in existence across Pakistan, including Islamabad, for quite some time. The Lal Masjid in

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cables, is to siphon off the money given to the group by Haj pilgrims. A memo said the LeT leadership used the annual Haj pilgrimage for laundering money and cash from pilgrims. This, the memo says, was also used to finance the Mumbai terror attack. This finds confirmation in another memo which details how Saeed and Lakhvi had “planned, directed, and executed LeT attacks throughout

Islamabad was, in fact, one of the biggest of such madrasas claiming to turn Pakistan into an Islamic state and to establish a Caliphate across the world through jihad. A survey conducted in Islamabad at that time showed Lal Masjid was not the only jihadi madrasa in the capital but at least 25 per cent of all mosques and madrasas either taught jihad or propagated extremist views.

These developments must be read with the support the Taliban has among the people, the army and the political leadership.

One of the staunchest supporters of the Taliban is Pakistan’s Tourism Minister Maulana Attaur Rehman. A Pashtun from Jamat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazlur Rehman party, Attaur said early in February this year at a public meeting that the Taliban were the true believers of Islamic ideology. He said it was the US which was the “biggest terrorist”. There are others with equally strong views on the Taliban.

These civilian leaders compliment the views held by terrorist leaders like Hafiz Saeed and Masood Azhar who waste no opportunity to propagate violence as a means to achieve whatever goals they have imagined for the Muslim world. Saeed has a much more powerful platform to propagate his terrorist views and objectives: he runs more than 150 schools and 85 madrasas where hatred and violence are an integral part of the curriculum.

The school textbooks, published by his group, espouse a violent cause among the impressionable young students. His group also runs a powerful students body in Punjab University where its members promote extremist views among the student community. It is not surprising that a large number of students from various colleges in Punjab find their way to terrorist training camps run by the LeT. In fact, a November 2010 report said several hundred students from Punjab were undergoing training at LeT camps in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. Their agenda: to carry out terrorist attacks in India and to help the Taliban fight the US-led forces in Afghanistan.

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South Asia and likely to have used some funds collected in the name of JuD’s charitable activities to support multiple LeT terrorist operations, including the November Mumbai attacks”.

Ironically, LeT is perhaps the only terrorist group in the world which gets grants from the government. Last year, the Punjab government gave a grant of close to $ 1 million to

With so many extremist forces brainwashing, indoctrinating and training the young students in Pakistan, its transformation into a radical state is not far.

A deadly calendar Lashkar-e-Toiba has not only remained intact after the Mumbai attack of November 2008 but has grown manifold in the years since then.

According to the US State Department documents released by Wikileaks, terrorist groups spend over $5 million every year to recruit and train terrorists.

This money was spent by Zaki-ur Rahman Lakhvi, the jailed LeT operations commander “to purchase all materials required for LeT operations”.

The documents said while parts of the funds were used for charitable purposes, large portions were diverted to strengthen its terrorist infrastructure.

One report showed how LeT’s charity front, Idara Khidmat-e-Khalq, in December 2005 was issuing Jamaat-ud Dawa receipts for donations collected in Saudi Arabia.

Although the supremo Hafiz Saeed himself does not travel abroad, fearing arrest or murder, it is his brother-inlaw and second-in-command of the terrorist group, Abdur Rahman Makki, who travels frequently to Saudi Arabia and other Middle East countries to generate funds for the terrorist cause.

He often seeks donations in the name of building a new school or upgrading madrasas in Pakistan.

Ironically, LeT is perhaps the only terrorist group in the world which gets grants from the government. Last year, the Punjab government gave a grant of close to $ 1 million to LeT’s parent body, JuD, banned by the UN and US, besides India and several other countries around the world, to run its chain of schools and welfare organisations.

March 2011

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g GLOBALWATCH LeT’s parent body, JuD, banned by the UN and US, besides India and several other countries around the world, to run its chain of schools and welfare organisations.

Since it is clear that Pakistan, despite the international pressure, will not do anything to weaken its ‘strategic asset’, the international community must step up its pressure and activities to stem the financial flow to the terrorist group. This must be done urgently and on a global level to starve the terrorist group of funds without which it will die a natural death.

LeT-ISI NEXUS The global terrorist group, Lashkar-eToiba’s deep and abiding relationship with the Pakistan Army and its intelligence wing, ISI, has been underscored by the spate of confidential documents from the US State Department made public by Wikileaks recently.

The diplomatic cables drafted by US Ambassador to Pakistan, Ms Anne Patterson, and detailed notes prepared by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in December 2009, a year after the Mumbai attacks, reveal the depth of the proximity the terrorist group enjoys with the Pakistan military establishment. These documents show the power and influence of the LeT in Pakistan and its value to the military in achieving various shortterm and long-term objectives.

The Clinton memo revealed how some ISI officials “continue to maintain ties with a wide array of extremist organisations, in particular the Taliban, LeT and other extremist organizations”. Other cables and notes showed that Hafiz Saeed continued to head the terrorist organisation despite global sanctions and ran a flourishing jihadi industry. He was not only addressing the Friday prayers in Lahore but was also quite active in recruitment and gathering funds for his terrorist cause.

Some of the cables warned that funds collected in the name of charity were being utilised to train new recruits and establish new training centres in different parts of Pakistan. Not only was Saeed free but even his deputy, Zaki-ur Rahman Lakvhi, the key accused in the Mumbai attack and undergoing trial in Islamabad, was actively promoting and monitoring the group’s terrorist agenda. A recent news report said several hundred students from Punjab and other parts of Pakistan, along with a handful of foreign recruits, were being trained in various terrorist activities in LeT’s camps in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. The recruits are trained to carry out terrorist www.geopolitics.in

HARD CASH FOR TERROR: The Lashkar is generating a huge pile of cash to fund its ingenious and deadly terror plans activities in India.

The facts revealed by the leaked documents, however, have not come as a surprise for India. India has been, for over two decades now, raising a cry about LeT’s global agenda. There are volumes of evidence to show that LeT works both as a proxy for the al-Qaida and the ISI, cleverly camouflaging its own global agenda of establishing a Caliphate. The group has kept a low profile, avoiding any military action from the international community so far, and thereby managing to strengthen its resource base, public support and its political linkages.

This was a deliberate plan, helped in no less measure by Pakistan Army which wanted a jihadi asset which can be trusted, used and kept as a secret weapon against one enemy that will never go away: India.

As the leaked cables showed, the Pakistan Army has no intention to give up on its strategic assets created and sustained for over half a century. The link between the socalled professional military and an outand-out terrorist group is much more than operational. They share the same enemy, similar strategies and objectives. To top it all, the senior leadership in the military and intelligence has for long been more than sympathetic to the LeT leadership, particularly Hafiz Saeed, who has never deviated from the line set by the ISI. Saeed is today the only jihadi leader, who has obeyed the ISI’s command to the last comma and has been eager to please his

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masters more than anyone else. Other terrorist groups spawned by the ISI in the years since the Afghan Jihad have either disintegrated or splintered, forming smaller groups with inadequate capabilities and resources to carry out the terror missions planned by the ISI in India and other places. The LeT, on the other hand, has remained more or less united and has gained enormous resources and infrastructure across Pakistan, particularly in Punjab.

By any account, LeT is today the world’s most resourceful terrorist group.

The Americans are not unaware of these facts. Wikileaks clearly show that the American hesitation in taking a direct action against terrorist groups like LeT is not because of any lack of information or understanding of the threat such groups pose but short-term interests. For the US, the Pakistan Army remains the key to untangle themselves from Afghanistan.

Therefore, they are not willing to push the Pakistan military leadership beyond a point. Till some Americans were killed in the Mumbai attack, the US had viewed the LeT as a regional threat, mostly to India, and not as a global threat. It remains one of the gravest miscalculations on the part of successive US administrations.

(The author is a New Delhi-based strategic analyst and a senior journalist-author, who has authored five books on foreign policy, strategic issues and terrorism) March 2011

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A STORY OF COLLISIONS There is an ancient maritime belief that all ships have souls; there are umpteen myths and legends on the subject in all parts of the world. What must that soul of the Vindhyagiri and her Captain and company be searching, as her hull lies on her side under water alongside the Naval Breakwater in Mumbai, wonders RANJIT B RAI, its one-time commander

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Chairmanship of Capt PVK Mohan, ChairBoard was proposed in the aftermath of T IS said that ships have souls and man, National Shipping Board (NSB) to pro26/11 but turf battles have shelved the prostreaks of luck or ill-luck of their own, pose corrective measures and policy initiaposal three years down the line. This is quite which become legends in their time tives to avoid such incidents. unlike aviation where there is a single and after. The manner in which they The committee submitted its report some national aviation security body. perform in their years of service time ago. Based on the recommendations of With India’s economy at a gallop, shipping becomes folklore, and the fortunes of the the committee, the Ministry of Shipping that contributes to 95 per cent of India’s ships’ companies and their Captains is spoexports and imports has grown and traffic at (MoST) issued instructions to all major Port ken of, well after the life of the ship. So it will ports, that have archaic rules, has increased.

Trusts for strict compliance. Among the be for INS Vindhyagiri (pennant number FIt may be mentioned that in the aftermath of issues that were recommended was a volun42) that capsized on January 31, 2011. The the collision of MSC Chitra and M V Khalijia tary review of navigation safety in all ports incident was witnessed by her crew at the and tightening of regulanaval dockyard outer breakwaPhoto courtesy: mumbaimirror.com tions for all ships enterter and happened after a severe ing Indian ports with collision and a fire that raged special focus on insuron board. Seagoing life is chalance-related documents, lenging and it is a fact of life safety parameters and that as long as ships go to sea, seaworthiness. collisions will occur. And, it is Another recommenalso a given that a ship will go dation specific for the out to sea where it belongs and Jawaharlal Nehru Port not remain tied up.

Trust ( JNPT) and the It is said that one can't make Mumbai Port Trust omelettes without breaking (MbPT) was for strict eggs! The Indian Navy will have compliance on the onto take the event in its stride going proposal by both and ensure that all involved the ports for widening learn their lessons. Its track of the channel and pilot record has been better than boarding area. The most leading navies. The bane channel is unfortunatehas been that India’s maritime ly shared by the two authorities do not have a Marports, and an expanding itime Security Board with a A graphic representation of the collision Indian Navy. It may be head to swiftly take maritime mentioned here that the safety and security decisions.

Iran-Iraq war erupted in 1980 over the III in August 2010 in the approach channel of This is primarily due to 13 agencies being sharing of the pilotage and waters in the Mumbai Port, which crippled operations at involved in sea-related issues. That needs Shatt Al-’Arab which is the narrow waterthe port for days, the Ministry of Shipping correction because safety and security go way formed by the confluence of the Tigris had constituted a committee under the together. A Maritime Security Advisory www.geopolitics.in

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g FOCUS homing torpedoes that could kill suband fitted more weapons. The INS Niligiri and Euphrates rivers at Al-Qurnah. marines as far as four nautical miles away at built at the Mazagon Docks Ltd (MDL) The recommendations from MoST also 33 knots, in a ‘seek and destroy’ mode. Both retained the same BHEL steam boilers and calls on ports to improve the manning, trainships gave great service and were more turbines for propulsion but stretched the ing and qualification of operators and superrecently fitted with Israeli visors of Vessel Traffic Systems UAV control containers to (VTS) which should be as per the control the Searcher and international norms and VTS Heron UAVs at sea with the equipment should be upgraded ‘line of sight’ Orbit Technoloto better technology which has gies system. Both ships were features such as ‘guard range’, etc. considered assets to any so that audible and visual alarms commander at sea for can alert the VTS operator about ‘Domain Awareness’ and impending collisions. It was also missile firings, beyond radar recommended that a VTS authorranges. Yet the Taragiri was ity under the MbPT should be always considered the formed that will provide pilot luckier. service for the entire length of the On that fateful Sunday approach channel i.e the MbPT afternoon of January 31, Vinand also the JNPT stretch, to dhygiri was entering Mumbai ensure the seamless flow of inforin single-line formation, led mation under one authority. by the flagship, INS Viraat for The report had further recFamilies Day. The line of ommended that a common pool ships included a submarine. of pilots be formed to undertake The traditional annual ‘Famipiloting of the entire stretch of lies Day at Sea’ is laid on to Mumbai Channel from the show the prowess of the Navy approaches to JNPT/MbPT as and involve families and required. In fact, the MoU guests to appreciate the role between JNPT and MbPT is of the Navy and its warriors. years old and needs to be updatVindhyagiri was the ed at the earliest to last in line being the bring out all the key junior-most although issues of cooperation her captain, who had between the two ports. recently taken comAtlas Electronix from mand of the ship, was Germany has been a Commander with entrusted to upgrade an excellent track the old Mumbai VTMS record. The Vindhyaand it will only be in giri had performed place later this year. successfully during The INS Vindhyagiri the day and had on was a victim of nonboard 150 families action.

The ill-fated and guests. The day ship suffered more than witnessed live gun her share of near misses. and rocket firings, The Vindhyagiri was the vertical/short takesecond Indian-designed offs and landings by stretch 3,100-tonne Harriers and many Leander with an organic sorties by helicopters.

10-tonne MK-42B ASW While entering Seaking. Her innovative Mumbai in the narstretched construction SEAGOING LIFE IS CHALLENGING: (Top) Part of the Eastern fleet to which row channel off Sunk surprised the West. Indibelongs the INS Vindhyagiri; and, (bottom) the stricken ship at the harbour Rock at around 1530 an naval architects were in good weather, INS very concerned when Vindhyagiri suffered an unfortunate colliship longer and broader without sacrificing Soviet Admiral of the Fleet Sergie Gorshkov sion. The 65,000-tonne loaded container any speed. queried during a visit to India in the 1970s vessel and Cyprus-registered 175-metre-long The Vindhyagiri was armed with a twin after he saw the INS Nilgiri: "Where is the MV Nordlake that had left Jawaharlal Nehru Vickers 4.5-inch turret and six 324 mm ILAS weaponry?" The architects designed the INS Port (JNPT) at 1.54 pm, was near the Vind3 torpedo tubes for launching the ItalianTaragiri and the Vindhyagiri based on the UK hyagiri. The Navy ship suddenly turned starsupplied Whitehead A244S anti-submarine designs of the smaller 2,700-tonne Leander www.geopolitics.in

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ONCE BITTEN, TWICE SHY: MSC Chitra and M V Khalijia collision in August 2010 brought the set-up of a committee to propose corrective measures and policy initiatives to avoid such incidents board (right) at fair speed in the narrow Mumbai channel when the Nordlake’s bulbous bow rammed the Vindhyagiri’s vulnerable boiler room amidships where the generators are situated.

The ship lost power immediately. Since any peace time loss of a fighting ship is bound to be viewed seriously by any Navy, a high-powered Board of Inquiry was ordered. The Mumbai Police took action to book the foreign captain on three counts of "rash navigation of vessel" etc. Going by the accounts in the media and eyewitness accounts, it appears that INS Vindhyagiri was the victim of circumstances and not the offender. There was little she could do under the circumstances since the Nordlake was sailing above the recommended www.geopolitics.in

speed. Many video recordings of the horrific collision, taken by the guests on INS Vindhyagiri have been aired and will assist the inquiries. The DG, Shipping, S B Agnihotri has ordered a Mercantile Marine Department inquiry under the aegis of the Nautical Adviser, Capt S Saggi.

As is known on that Sunday, there were around nine men of war entering the harbour in the narrow channel. There were also two merchant ships in the same channel that afternoon. The heavy traffic should have been regulated by a responsible officer of MbPT from the Dock Master Control station. The MV Nordlake had a JNPT pilot ( JP-33) on board. Another merchant ship entering the harbour, MV Sea Eagle with JNPT pilot JP-37 on board, was slotted in

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the naval line. Merchant ships are not used to manoeuvring as well as naval ships.

The ships were exchanging data on VHF Channel 12 which is the frequency allotted for merchant ships for navigation in ports.

There could have been a lot of chatter resulting in its jamming with no one able to hear each other clearly and many a communication slip at sea has led to disasters.

INS Godavari was just ahead of INS Vindhyagiri and also in the process of manoeuvring leading to a melee. The truth will be known only after the inquiry: the party that is guilty will bear the cost of damage and could result in long litigation.

However, credit must go to the Navy and the Western Naval Command for immediately and expeditiously towing the INS Vindhyagiri away and safely disembarking all the 150 guests. A fire then broke out on board and this made the authorities deammunition the ship in quick time. That too is creditable, as an ammunition blowup could have been disastrous. Fire tenders and water tankers were employed to douse the flames. The ship, which was probably listing due to the damage, capsized with the weight of the water and submerged. A massive and costly salvage operation is now needed to bring the INS Vindhyagiri up.

To end the story, I must add my personal experience when I was in command of the Vindhaygiri in June 1984. I had a sad and unnerving brush with a merchantman, MV Sebastiano off Cochin in the thick of a monsoon squall. Luckily, the Vindhyagiri suffered small bow damage and the 65year-old Italian Master of the Sebastiano was found to be at fault. He held a Liberian Masters Ticket without the mandatory medical clearance.

The C-in-C West VADM Mukherjee felt that I was not at fault and had saved the ship.

But CNS ADM Tahiliani had been court-martialled for grounding the INS Vikrant in Goa and so as CNS he strongly advised that I be court-martialled to absolve myself. A lot of paperwork followed and in those seven-odd months, I must confess, I was in tension while commanding the Vindhyagiri. As a result, every time she was doing high speed in the close vicinity of ships in exercises, I remained glued to the bridge. Finally, I did face a court martial for a single charge of negligence and was acquitted and fully absolved. I hope and pray that the Captain of the Vindhyagiri is not at fault.

(The author, a retired Commodore, is Vice President, Indian Maritime Foundation) March 2011

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India could very well save British pride if it buys one of the two or both the Royal Navy aircraft carriers that have been phased out of service, thanks to the “Strategic Defence and Security Review” of the new Conservative-Liberal coalition government.

ABHIJIT BHATTACHARYYA takes a look at the present situation of the Royal Navy A FRESH STRATEGY: The Royal Navy will be delighted if India agrees to prepare one of the two warships that it is decommissi-oning under a costcutting plan. Seen in the picture is HMS Illustrious

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H

OW FAST times change! Forty years ago the strength of the Royal Navy was a joint-second with USSR, only behind the mighty marines of the USA. It had two fixed-wing aircraft carriers; three commando ships and helicopter carriers; four nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines; five nuclear-powered fleet submarines; 26 diesel patrol submarines; two (amphibious cruiser type) assault ships; three cruisers; nine guided-missile armed destroyers; three destroyers, 65 frigates and six logistic landing ships manned by 87000 personnel. Today, the might of never-settingsun of the omnipresent navy has dwindled to zero aircraft; four strategic missile submarines; eight attack submarines; seven destroyers and 14 frigates, commandeered by 28120 naval and 7020 marine personnel.

What really kept the Royal Navy several notches above others was the engineering skill and the deft handling of the British-built aircraft carriers across the oceans. The US Navy was better and bigger than the Royal Navy no doubt, but Washington’s carriers were meant only for the home navy and not for any non-American force. Thus, from Australia to Argentina and India to Brazil, it was the era of the British-built, second-hand aircraft carriers serving the non-British navies on the high seas.

The Australians acquired two post-Second World War British-supplied Majestic class carriers. Argentina, Brazil and India, on the other hand, made up with one carrier each, all of which were Britain manufactured in the range of 19000-20000-tonne aircraft carriers. Others possessing aircraft carriers were the Soviet, French and the Spanish navies. In short, the 1970s still belonged to the Anglo-Saxon carrier force with a virtual grip over production, distribution and the user’s choice. It was a producer-seller market all the way.

Four decades have passed since then with unprecedented development of, and change in, the world navies, the most important being that the Royal Navy, the virtual mover, shaker and trendsetter of the world in the last century is bereft of any aircraft carrier today, thanks to the outcome of the “Strategic Defence and Security Review” (SDSR) of the new Conservative-Liberal coalition government. The Englishmen of the twenty-first century face the unprecedented harsh reality of a weak economy and deteriorating public finances as the “annual deficit between public spending and receipts” ballooned to nearly 12 per cent of Gross National Product last year.

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Thus, in preparation for the SDSR, a Green Paper “Adaptability and Partnership” was published on February 3, 2010, to set out issues pertaining to the size and shape of the UK armed forces. The primary obstacle for the decision-makers cropped up as “there was little scope for any more ‘salamislicing’” — since the UK armed forces were operating at high-action zones for many years thereby leaving virtually no easy targets in search for savings. Yet, the inevitable axe fell and it fell more on the navy owing to the comparatively limited role it has played in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Understandably, therefore, the publicunderstanding and appreciation of the Royal Navy’s past role faded under the shadow of Baghdad and Kabul land warfare. The British people at large perceived the Royal Navy having little, or no, utility “except in some private battle at sea to which nobody else is invited” to watch the show. Little wonder then that the First Sea Lord, Admiral Sir Mark Stanhope, is a visibly unhappy man for his inability to make the people understand the function of aircraft carriers; that these ships are “not for maritime operations in isolation”, but are “national, mobile airfields for the conduct and support of a wide range of joint operations ashore and afloat”.

Even so, the joint force Harrier aircraft had to recently undertake (in November 2010) the last cruise aboard the Royal Navy aircraft carrier HMS Ark Royal before both the aircraft and the London navy flagship were axed following the government’s Strategic Defence and Security Review, thereby ending the final voyage of the ship’s 25-year career. Thus with the loss of the Harrier fleet, London will have no fixedwing carrier strike capability for at least 10 years, until the introduction of the Lockheed Martin F-35C Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter on one of the 66600-tonne Queen Elizabeth-class carriers in 2020.

What disappointed the Royal Navy was that following a restorative docking in 2006, HMS Ark Royal returned to service in 2007 and that the original decommissioned dates of the carriers Ark Royal and Illustrious were 2014 and 2016. In other words, it has been a premature retirement of two active and operational carriers of the Royal Navy thereby leading to a “financial loss” of sorts since every ship’s production and commission cost is calculated on the basis of the “operational/shelf life” of a vessel. What then is the next course of action for “Her Majesty’s government”! Should it now scrap the two carriers or explore the possibility of getting customers to replenish the dwindling coffers?

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DECOMMISSIONING: It’s good bye to HMS Ark Royal under the defence cuts plans During the recent India visit of the Royal Navy’s Chief of Naval Staff and First Sea Lord, Admiral Sir Mark Stanhope, on being asked, gave an inkling of his government’s intention to sell the twin carriers to friendly navies for an appropriate price. Quite obviously, India appears to be high on the radar of the British business plan. This is understandable. The first aircraft carrier of the Indian Navy, INS Vikrant was commissioned on March 4, 1961, and was of British origin. At 19500 tonnes, the full-load Vikrant of yesterday, tonne-by-tonne, is virtually at par with the just-decommissioned London carriers HMS Ark Royal and HMS Illustrious, each of which is 20600 tonnes full load. India’s second carrier Viraat too was purchased from the UK and commissioned on May 20, 1987.

It is now the lone aircraft carrier of India and has already completed 50 years of service. With periodic refittings, it is expected to operate for another decade, provided, of course, its ageing Sea Harrier fighter aircraft fleet is available for ship-borne operations, if Assistant Chief of Naval Staff (Foreign Cooperation and Intelligence) Rear Admiral Anil Kumar Chawla is to be believed. Thus there is that factor of uncertainty.

Though the indigenous Aircraft Carrier (IAC) that India is building at the Cochin Shipyard is expected to be launched in the waters later this year or early next year, from launch to get the IAC operational, it could take about four to five years. Similarly, the rescheduled and re-priced delivery of the Admiral Gorshkov aircraft carrier from Russia (to be renamed INS Vikramaditya) is www.geopolitics.in

expected only around 2013. It is against this background that the British appear to have rightly gauged the Indian mood to avoid a break in aircraft carrier service by its navy.

However, it is harsh economics, rather than an inherent benevolence, which turned the Royal Navy entourage towards India. The UK’s biggest arms manufacturer — BAE Systems — has already announced “a further 1390 job losses in the UK as a result of the decision announced in October 2010 Strategic Defence and Security Review to retire the Harrier jet fleet and terminate the Nimrod MRA.4 maritime patrol aircraft programme.

The job cuts — which cover eight sites within the UK — now take the total announced redundancies to 6000 approximately since the beginning of 2009 (and about 3500 since January 2010).” Obviously, these are testing times for the English defence manufacturers.

Clearly, therefore, the consequential industrial turmoil has shaken the local polity as under the new SDSR and Comprehensive Spending Review, British defence spending will be reduced by eight per cent in real terms, from its 2010 figure of about £40 billion ($ 62.2 billion) by 2014. The clamour for “re-building defence industry” has to begin as reportedly 42000 jobs have already been lost.

A group of six former senior armed forces flag officers of Britain too, is unhappy and upset. According to Air Vice Marshal Tony Mason, Major General Patrick Cordingley, Marshal of the Royal Air Force Lord Craig, Air Commodore Andrew Lambert, Major General Julian Thompson and Admiral Sir

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John Woodward, the scrapping of the maritime aircraft fleet will create “a massive gap in British security” and “military capability” in the future.

Indeed, a crisis of sorts appears to have gripped the British defence forces, industry and the equipment supply chain thereof.

From the Royal Air Force’s Lockheed Martin airlift/tanker aircraft delay to British Army’s retirement of more than 2000 armoured and mechanical forces vehicles and now the carrier decommissioning, London’s options appear to be shrinking and challenges multiplying. No doubt, the UK government had to hold the axe hard as the Ministry of Defence planners have been unequivocally asked to make GB £two billion ($ 3 billion) in new cuts to try to “make UK force structure, base infrastructure and equipment programme match the next four years’ spending limits as set out in the coalition government’s Comprehensive Spending Review”.

It is little wonder then that the edgy defence planners and military hardware producers are scouting the arms bazaar for their own survival and for maintaining the traditional technology edge over their rivals to make money and ensure prosperity. India, understandably, is an extremely attractive target client so far as the two decommissioned aircraft carriers (Ark Royal and Illustrious) disposal plan is concerned. Will India take the bait? That is the big question. Time will tell. Till then one can only wait.

(The author is an alumnus of the National Defence College of India) March 2011

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EUROCOPTER HAD a great Aero 2011. They had big ticket visitors, major announcements and orders to show for all the buzz. Their AS550 C3 Fennec is in the race for 197 Reconnaissance and Surveillance Helicopters for the Indian Ministry of Defence, expected to be inked around middle of this year. It caught every one's attention as it was the only military helicopter on display. Amongst the footfalls at the Eurocopter stall were: Minister of State for Defence Pallam Raju; Army Chief Gen V K Singh, his Deputy Lt Gen J B Singh; and Deputy Chief of Air Staff, Air Marshal R K Sharma, Germany's Defence Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg and French Ambassador Jerome Bonnafont.

Eurocopter, which has 45year of association with India and commands 49 per cent of global helicopter market, in October 2010 became the first global helicopter major with Indian subsidiary. Eurocopter is going to deliver five AS350 B3 to local customers during this year. The company has also its supply chain in India where HAL ship sets of airframe components of Ecureuil/Fennec helicopters.

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THE COST OF TEJAS ACCORDING TO P S Subramanyam, head of the Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA), which spearheads the Tejas programme, expenses over the LCA Tejas have so far been just `6,051 crore and the aircraft is significantly cheaper than any comparable fighter.

Another `746 crore (of the sanctioned `3,650 crore) have been spent on the naval Tejas, which will fly from the Indian Navy's future aircraft carriers. The IAF is now confident that its Tejas Mk-I will obtain final operational clearance(FOC) in 2012, within the sanctioned `7,965 crore.

Subramanyam has said that by 2012, the total development cost for an IAF and a naval Tejas — including a single-seat fighter and a twin-seat trainer variant for each — will be `9,690 crore. Another `4,353 crore will be spent on the Tejas Mark-II, bringing the total cost to `14,047 crore

(about $11.28 billion).

It is said that the Gripen, a comparable if somewhat more advanced fighter, which Sweden has developed, cost $13.5 billion.

Given that Sweden entered the Gripen programme with a mature aerospace industry (coming off the successful

Viggen programme), India will have built the Tejas, as also an entire aerospace design and manufacturing eco-system, for 17 per cent less money than Sweden paid for the Gripen, it is argued.

INFOTECH BUYS EUROPEAN FIRM INFOTECH ENTERPRISES Limited, which provides engineering and geographic information services, is in advanced stages of acquiring an aerospace services company in Europe for a consideration of approximately $20 million (`91 crore).

Sitting on a `280-crore cash pile, the Hyderabad-based company proposes to go in for this acquisition to bring high-end competencies to its recentlyintegrated global aerospace practice."We are constantly evaluating acquisitions and are currently in talks with three-four companies with a transaction value of between $10 million and $20 million. What we want this acquisition to do is to bring domain expertise and proximity to customer and customer knowledge. We expect it (buyout) to happen anytime this quarter," Krishna Bodanapu, president (engineering), Infotech, told journalists recently. Infotech, around nine months ago, had established an

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integrated global aerospace practice to take advantage of the growth in the aerospace and defence engineering sectors across the globe. It has been focussing on expanding its breadth of services to maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) engineering support, manufacturing transition support among others along the value chain.

The global aerospace engineering services spend is expected to double up to $14 billion in 2020 from the existing $7 billion in 2009-10. The rising engineering costs and decline in resource availability have forced engineering entities across the world to turn to India and China. By 2020, India's share in the global engineering services offshoring is projected to be around $45 billion, according to a Booz report on engineering services outsourcing.

According to the company last year it derived around $37 million (`168.72 crore) from its aerospace business.

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g HAL PLANS HUGE MODERNISATION PUSH

GE AVIATION and HAL have signed 30-year contract that covers license to carry out repairs and overhaul of various avionics, instruments and hydraulic products for the Hawk Mk132 aircraft, an Advanced Jet Trainer operated by the Indian Air Force.

This license will provide

in-house repair and overhaul capabilities to HAL for GE Aviation products and reduce turn-around-time for the repairs. HAL will build its maintenance, repair and overhaul capabilities at its Bengaluru and Korwa facilities in India. The current schedule calls for the Bengaluru facility to be certified for repair and overhaul of hydraulics and instruments and the Korwa facility to be certified for avionics.

As part of the license agreement, GE will develop, supply and commission the test equipment and supply technical data. The agreement also includes training, technical support, postdesign services for one year, and spares services.

www.geopolitics.in

HINDUSTAN AERONAUTICS Limited has announced a `20,000-crore plan for modernising its plants and hinted at the possibility of the company going public and being listed on stock market.

The company plans to spend `20,000 crore on modernising its facilities over the next ten years, which would be funded through internal accruals.

The Bengaluruheadquartered HAL already has reserves of `9,000 crore and proposed to add `1,500 crore every year. HAL has 19 production divisions and ten R&D centres in the country. The company plans to design, develop and manufacture 1,500 helicopters over the next ten years as it has `one lakh crore worth of orders to be delivered.

TIES UP WITH CANADA’S MAGELLAN HINDUSTAN AERONAUTICS Ltd has tied up with Canadian MNC Magellan Aerospace to design and develop a new wire strike protection system (WSPS) for its advanced light helicopter. The protection system will be made this year at Magellan's Bristol Aerospace division, a HAL release has said. The WSPS protects helicopters from potentially devastating con-

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sequences of accidental encounters with horizontally strung wires and cables. The system includes an upper and lower cutter and windshield deflector designed by Bristol, which will be integrated into the ALH structure. Magellan designs and manufactures aeroengine and aerostructure assemblies and parts for defence and aerospace markets.

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g TATA LAUNCHES 3 AEROSPACE PRODUCTION UNITS

THE TATA Group has announced the launch of three new aerospace manufacturing facilities with international collaboration in Hyderabad.

The three projects slated to come up are for Tata Lockheed Martin Aerostructure, a joint venture between Tata Advanced Systems and Lockheed Martin; Tata Aerospace Systems, a JV between Tata Advanced Systems and Sikorsky Aircraft; and Nova Integrated Systems.

Tata Lockheed Martin Aerostructure

is export-oriented. The products manufactured there will form a key aircraft structure that Lockheed Martin will integrate and complete for its global C-130 aircraft customers.

Similarly, Tata Aerospace Systems will manufacture aerospace components for Sikorsky in India, including components for S-92 helicopter cabins. Tata will build upon the existing facility at the Aerospace and Precision Engineering SEZ, which assembles Sikorsky S-92 helicopter cabins. The Nova Integrated Systems will set up an integrated aerospace complex to undertake high end precision electronics manufacturing, assembly and integration of airborne vehicles, the company said.

The three new projects envisage a total investment of about `1,000 crore, with employment-generation potential of 3,000 in the first phase. All three projects are slated to be completed by 2011-end.

NORTHROP GRUMMAN IN RACE FOR NAVY AIRCRAFT ORDER NORTHROP GRUMMAN Corporation (NGC), the US-based $34.9-billion global security systems and technology provider, is pitching for the Indian Navy's order for surveillance aircraft and high-altitude longrange unmanned aerial vehicles.

According to Northrop Grumman India Managing Director Gyanendra Sharma, the Indian Navy had invited a request for information (RFI) in the middle of last year and the company submitted its RFIs to them. It submitted quotes for E-2D Advanced Hawkeye, airborne early warning and control aircraft. It is now waiting for the RFPs to be issued by the Indian Navy..

The Navy intends to procure four surveillance aircraft. If Northrop Grumman wins the Navy order, India will be the second country in the world to fly the E-2D www.geopolitics.in

Advanced Hawkeye. Currently, only the US Navy uses one such aircraft, which completed its landing aboard the USS Truman (aircraft carrier) and began carrier suitability tests on February 3, 2011.

The Indian Navy is planning to acquire 6-8 medium-range airborne early-warning surveillance aircraft and high-altitude long-range UAVs. The Ministry of Defence had floated RFIs for the surveillance aircraft and UAVs. While specifications for the medium-range surveillance aircraft require an operating range of over 350 nautical miles, the requirements for the UAV include a service ceiling above 40,000 feet and endurance of over 25 hours.

The Navy's requirements for surveillance aircraft assumed importance in the wake of the 26/11 Mumbai terror attacks.

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AXIS AEROSPACE TO SET UP AVIONICS UNIT BENGALURU-BASED Axis Aerospace and Technologies plans to set up a manufacturing unit for avionics, eyeing the massive opportunity in the Indian defence sector.

The firm, in which the Rajeev Chandrasekhar-controlled Jupiter Capital holds a majority stake, has inked an agreement with a Russian consortium through Rosoboronexport, a nodal agency, for a joint venture to manufacture and support avionics and testing equipment in India for Russian systems.The manufacturing facility would require a minimum investment of `30 crore.

Axis is positioning itself as India's first vertically integrated private aerospace and defence company, meaning that it will provide end-toend solutions. By partnering with a Russian OEM for avionics it intends to have an edge in orders for upgrading of Indian defence equipment.

The company is already working with Europeans and the Americans. As of now, nearly 60 per cent of the firm's revenues came from Europe and the rest from America.

By looking to foray into Russian systems, the company is planning to be a part of the lifecycle support of Russian origin equipment in India. It wants to develop and test avionics for Russian programmes in India.

Axis has staff strength of 1,200 engineers based in Bengaluru and in six locations overseas. It had acquired Indian engineering services company Cades in 2009 for about `80 crore.

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HUNTING FOR NEW KILLERS With a depleted submarine strength because of the gradual decommissioning of the erstwhile Soviet-origin vessels, the Indian Navy is planning to induct new ones whose roles will not be limited to only littoral operations but extend far beyond under the deep oceans. SAURAV JHA discusses how Project 75I submarine programme of the Navy is gathering pace

AMBITIOUS EXPANSION: The Indian Navy has planned to increase its strength of submarine fleet under Project 751 programme

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g DEFBIZ

I

N 2001, the then Defence Minister George Fernandes remarked: “The government had made the development of the Indian Navy a priority.”

Since then, though the Indian Navy’s surface fleet has seen periodic accretions, the submarine arm of the Navy has seen no new inductions. The Navy, now it is believed, has a long-standing plan to induct two separate lines of foreign conventional (diesel-electric) submarines under Project 75 and 75I (Project 75 India), respectively.

This would be followed by a domestic line of 12 submarines featuring technological elements obtained from both programmes.

While Project 75 has taken the shape of the Scorpene submarine line at Mazagon Dock Limited (MDL), the Navy is currently at the Request For Information (RFI) stage for Project 75I and claims that it will put out a request for proposals (RFPs) sometime this year.

It is important that the process seems to be in motion since by several accounts the Navy faces a rather serious situation as far as the strength of its submarine fleet is concerned. The Indian Navy inducted its last submarine, the INS Sindushastra, way back in 2000 and has only been retiring boats since then. All Foxtrots have been retired from service and delays have hit the Scorpene programme. That means that the first Scorpene will join the fleet only in 2015 as opposed to the initial delivery date of 2012.

Given the current decommissioning trends, it seems that the Navy may be down to 10

conventional submarines by 2015 from the 14 currently in service.

The RFI seems to have been sent out to all global majors including Scorpene-maker, DCN of France. Some experts find it s a bit surprising since the Navy’s original plan was apparently to have two unique imported submarine lines (i.e. Project 75 and 75I) with technology representing different design traditions and philosophies. The issuance of a RFI to DCN for the second line would, therefore, seem to be at odds with this objective. Nevertheless, apart from DCN, the RFI has also been received by Russia’s Rosoboronexport, Italian ship-maker Ficantieri, German firm HDW and Spain’s Navantia.

Hopefully, this acquisition process will not run into the kind of scandals and delays that plagued the Scorpene programme.

Indeed, as a result of the lessons learnt from the Scorpene programme, the Navy wants

THE NAVY IS CURRENTLY AT THE REQUEST FOR INFORMATION (RFI) STAGE FOR PROJECT 75I

“IT WILL BE A DIFFERENT BOAT IN THE SENSE THAT WE ARE REVISING ITS QUALITATIVE REQUIREMENTS. ALONG WITH BETTER SENSORS IT WILL ALSO HAVE BETTER HIDING CAPABILITY, IMPROVED DETECTION RANGE AND COMBAT MANAGEMENT SYSTEM.” NIRMAL VERMA, CHIEF OF THE NAVAL STAFF

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two of the submarines built at the selected foreign shipyard with the remaining four being built under transfer of technology at a domestic facility.

Specifying what the Navy wants from this line, Admiral Nirmal Verma recently said: “It will be a different boat in the sense that we are revising its Qualitative Requirements.

Along with better sensors it will also have better hiding capability, improved detection range and combat management system.”

The RFI also reveals that the Navy is looking to have Air Independent Propulsion systems incorporated from the very first Project 75I boat unlike the Scorpene programme where there is a provision for retrofitting the last three submarines with the French MESMA system. Among the missions that the chosen submarine will have to fulfil are anti-surface and anti-submarine warfare, support operations ashore via land attack capabilities, ISR missions and special force and mining operations. The Navy would like to use a mix of indigenous torpedoes along with the missiles which are being deployed on the Scorpene submarines.

Given the scope of the RFI we can venture to survey the contenders for this programme. First is Rubin’s Amur class. This is an export version of the Russian Navy’s Lada class, that was at one time thought to be the strongest contender for the Project 75I programme given that a western design, the Scorpene, had been chosen for Project 75.

The nearly 1000-tonne Amur with a complement of 18 comes with some formidable missile-launching capabilities in the form of ten Vertical Launch System (VLS) tubes installed just aft of the bow. These tubes are potential carriers for the submarinelaunched version of the Brahmos which Rubin claims can be salvo-launched from the Amur. With an additional carrying capacity of 16 torpedoes fired through the four 533mm tubes, the Amur does seem to pack quite a punch for its size and is compatible with an AIP system. Its noise levels are reported to be much lower than the Kilo class and the Amur may have a lower-price tag than its competitors. Peak endurance is about 50 days.

Even if the Amur does not win, the Russians may get a further look via their joint programme with the Italians in the form of Ficantieri’s S-1000. This is supposed be an advanced, larger derivative of the Amur displacing about 1100 tonnes with a complement of just 16, reflecting a high degree of automation which has been a feature of Russian submarine designs. The S-1000 comes with an AIP and can carry both March 2011

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THREE S-80S ARE UNDER CONSTRUCTION WITH THE FIRST SET TO JOIN SERVICE IN 2013 Russian Western weaponry fired through six 533 mm tubes besides being able to host six special forces troops. The total number of offensive weapons carried in the torpedo room is about 14.

Spain’s Navantia, meanwhile, has a larger submarine on offer: the S-80 that displaces more than 2400 tonnes submerged. Developed in collaboration with the Americans, this submarine boasts of a Lockheed Martin combat system which allows it to engage multiple targets simultaneously. It can be outfitted with an UTC-Abengoa AIP, similar in operation to the MESMA giving it a comparable endurance. The S-80 has six 533mm torpedo tubes that can be used to fire submarine-launched Cruise missiles as well.

The submarine has a complement of 32 and is able to host an additional eight special forces troops and their equipment. Three S-80s are presently under construction for the Spanish Navy with the first set to join service in 2013.

Even as Navantia seems bullish on the S80, the Germans are looking to re-enter the submarine market in India. HDW would probably be offering the Type 214, a derivative of the German Navy’s Type 212 and successor to the Type 209 which is currently in operation with the Indian Navy and two of which were built at MDL in the Nineties.

Unfortunately, that submarine-building capability was lost due to the infamous HDW scandal that followed and has been restored only through the Scorpene programme. Type 214 seems to be quite a successful design with countries such as Greece, South Korea and Portugal having opted for it. The submerged displacement is 1860 tonnes and the Type 214 has a complement of 27. One of the key features of this submarine is its air-independent propulsion

FINALLY, IT WILL ARRIVE: The Indian Navy will get first Scorpene submarines in 2015 as opposed to a three-year delay from the original schedule of 2012 www.geopolitics.in

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g DEFBIZ (AIP) system using Siemens polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) hydrogen fuel cells coupled with a large provision-carrying capability. This gives it an endurance of up to 84 days which is phenomenal for a submarine of this size.

Diminishing HDW’s chances, however, would be the fact that Pakistan seems to be on course to acquire three Type 214s of its own, all of which are to be built at the Karachi shipyard. To be fair, the supply of Agosta-90Bs to Pakistan in the Nineties by the French did not seem to have come in their way of securing the Scorpene deal from India.

In fact, DCN seems to be looking seriously at Project 75I as well. Given that the RFI is for an ocean-going sub and not one meant only for littoral operations, it will most likely be offering the Marlin SSK design that DCN says incorporates elements of the nuclear-powered Barracudaclass, in its dive controls and elements of the Le terrible SSBN its combat system.

The Marlin also comes with the MESMA AIP run on gasoil which it says can be integrated with fuel cells in the future to match the Type 214s endurance.

As the usual suspects gear up for the Project 75I tender, there are unconfirmed reports that the HDW-owned Swedish shipyard Kockums may be in the race as well with its ‘A26’ submarine offering based on the successful Gotland class design. The A26 dispaces 1900 tonnes submerged, is manned by a crew of 17-26 and comes with a Stirling cycle AIP system which gives it competitive endurance to similar designs.

It is quite clear that the final choice will not just be based on the cardinal parameters of the contenders detailed above but also the level of technology transfer and nature of industrial partnership offered. The ability to carry Indian origin weapons such as the Varunastra torpedo, the Brahmos and possibly a future long-range cruise missile will be a factor as well.

There are reports that the Project 75I tender may be worth US $ 11 billion or `50,000 crore, but that seems high for the kind of submarines being purchased, if past prices are any indication. However, at the end of the day, this move to ramp up conventional submarine strength is long overdue and needs to be expedited since the nuclear submarines joining the Navy this decade cannot fill the entire spectrum of roles that air-independent propulsion (AIP) equipped diesel-electric submarines are supposed to perform. www.geopolitics.in

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March 2011

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THE STRATEGIC GAME CHANGER In order to protect the country from possible ballistic missiles threat from Pakistan and China, India is developing a multi-layered ballistic missile defence system. ROHIT SRIVASTAVA looks at its progress

I FOR SELF PROTECTION: Prithvi Air Defence system is being tested

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T WAS on November 27, 2006, when an exo-atmospheric hypersonic interceptor missile successfully destroyed an "enemy" Prithvi missile at an altitude of 40-50 km that India made a breakthrough in anti-ballistic missile technologies.

This success heralded India's entry into an elite club of countries possessing this capability. India is said to be only the fourth country after the United States, Russia and Israel to have built an effective anti-ballistic missile (ABM). In fact, if Defence Research Development Organisation chief Dr V L Saraswat is to be believed, India's anti-ballistic missile defence(ABM) programme, meant to defend the country from enemy ballistic missiles, is well ahead of that of China.

India decided to develop ABMs when in 1990s Pakistan acquired missiles from China and North Korea, missiles that had range long enough to hit Indian cities. The need gathered urgency after the 1998 nuclear tests. In quest of developing an elaborate missile shield, India initially evinced interest in acquiring Israel's Arrow II Ballistic Missile defence (BMD). But that required consent from the US, which partly funded and codeveloped the Israeli BMD. However, Washington, not keen to be looked at as altering the balance of power in the region, blocked the transfer.

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g DEFBIZ As had been the case before for other Indian military programmes, the technology denial for ABMs forced New Delhi to go for indigenous development. The project to build a BMD is believed to have been initiated in 1999 after the Kargil conflict to counter Pakistan's offensive missile overtures and its nonadherence to no-first-use of nuclear weapons but was kept under wraps and acknowledged only in 2006 after the successful first test.

The entire ABM system includes detection, tracking and interception of the incoming missile involving multiple platforms and requires a fair amount of precision and sophistication. Interception of an incoming missile depends upon the range and accuracy of the radars and other tracking devices.

Any ballistic missile goes through three phases during its flight and each has its own tracking and targeting problems. The "Boost" of a missile starts from ignition to its ascend into exosphere, for a single stage missile; at the end of it what remains is only warhead. This is the best phase to attack any missile as the radar signature both in terms of radar cross section and infra red is very large which makes it easy to track and identify and also to target. Here it is of importance to have high-quality radars with sufficient long range and accuracy.

ABM system is designed to hit a Ballistic Missile(BM) during its midcourse, when it is high in the sky flying parallel to earth with little obstruction for radar in tracking and identifying the warhead. Another important factor that comes into play is the range of interceptor missile, it must be able to hit with accuracy at long distance.

The ABM system is also designed to intercept the missile at the terminal phase, when the entry vehicle (warhead) enters into atmosphere. The re-entry phase provides heat signatures from the payload components, but they are small and move at speeds that make them difficult to target.

In short, in order to intercept incoming missiles successfully and reliably, a flawless performance by a whole range of advanced technical equipment is required for an ABM. The various components required include: radar-tracking devices, interceptor guidance and propulsion systems, onboard sensors and communication links. All of these individual components of the missile defence 'architecture' need to be integrated seamlessly to ensure a successful intercept.

The major technological obstacle against any ABM system is the speed at which warhead approaches its target. The general speed of a short-range missile is between three and five mach — 3-5 times the speed of sound, www.geopolitics.in

UNCLE SAM’S OFFER OPENING-UP of Indian defence market for competitive bidding has created many avenues for opportunities which no one ever imagined few years back.

The strategic rise of India and huge amount of money that India is investing in developing cutting-edge defence capabilities has sent across the message that sooner or later India will overcome the technology denial either by itself or with support of developed nations.

Considering India now its strategic partner, the US has offered it two Anti Ballistic Missile Systems. First one is Aegis Ballistic Missile Defence, a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), formerly Theater High Altitude Area Defense weapon system The second is Patriot III , better known as PAC 3. It was offered to India in response to Indian request for proposal for medium-range surface-to-air missile. The Patriot system, during first Gulf war, had a fair amount of success against Iraqi Scud missiles. It is a longrange, all-altitude, all-weather air defence system to counter tactical ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and advanced aircraft. The combat element of the Patriot(Phased Array Tracking Intercept of Target) missile system is the fire unit, which consists of a phased array radar set (RS), and engagement control station (ECS), an electric power plant, an antenna mast group (AMG), a communications relay group (CRG), and up to eight launching stations (LS).

The Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) upgrade programme incorporates significant upgrades to the RS and ECS, and adds the new PAC-3 missile, which utilises hit-to-kill technology for greater lethality against Theater Ballistic Missiles (TBMs) armed with weapons of mass destruction and with a range of less than 3500-kilo metres. Additionally, up to 16 PAC-3 missiles can be loaded per launcher, increasing firepower and missile defense capabilities.

William L Blair, President, Raytheon India, told Geopolitics that “Raytheon is the prime contractor, both domestic and international, for the Patriot Air and Missile Defense weapon system and the system integrator for the PAC-3 missile.

Raytheon provides a tailored, combatproven Air and Missile Defense capabili-

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ty, integrating existing and new systems.

“Patriot is a long-range, high-altitude, all-weather system designed to defeat advanced threats, including aircraft, tactical ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and UAVs. Patriot is the only combattested system in its class and has capabilities to answer all air defense needs (high performance aircraft, Theatre Ballistic Missiles, cruise missiles). Patriot provides an important force protection resource on the global war on terror and can be deployed domestically to protect cities.”

On the other hand, in first half of 2009, Lockheed Martin gave presentation to Indian Navy for Aegis Missile system. They offered to integrate Prithvi Missile defence system with Aegis system. This offer should be seen as good sales pitch as Indian PAD is still a nascent system and integration of all the components of missile defence is the technically most challenging.

Aegis BMD uses the mobility of Aegisequipped cruisers and destroyers to permit intercepts during the ascent, midcourse and descent phases, as well as providing surveillance support to other elements of the BMDS. The Aegis BMDequipped ships use hit-to-kill technology to intercept and destroy short- andmedium-range ballistic missiles. Additionally, Aegis BMD-equipped ships provide surveillance and tracking of intercontinental ballistic missiles and work with other BMDS elements to provide advance warning for the defense of the nation, deployed US forces and allies.

The US Missile Defense Agency (MDA) and the US Navy are jointly developing Aegis BMD as part of the nation's BMDS. A total of 25 ships — 21 US Navy Aegis-equipped ships and four Japanese Aegis-equipped destroyers — have the capability to engage short — to intermediate-range ballistic missile threats and support other BMDS engagements using the Aegis BMD Weapon System and the SM-3.

The US wants to sell this system to India as an alternate to Prithvi Air Defence (PAD) system, thus saving in time and money. Secondly, being a shipborne system it will have the flexibility that a land-based static system will not be able to provide.

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CREDIBLE DETERRENCE: India plans to deploy BMD system by 2015 whereas for intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) it goes in hypersonic (5+ mach). The extremely high speed of the warhead makes the interception very difficult both in terms of tracking and hitting. Generally, the interception is done in a salvo mode. Number of interceptors is fired to intercept at different height to ensure successful interception.

The inaccuracy of the system is overcome by the salvo firing. The concept of exo-and endo-atmospheric interception comes from this. When an interception is done above 50 km height, it is called exo-atmospheric and below this height is called as endo-atmospheric. For any nuclear missile interception, the higher and further the kill are made, the least possibility of any impact on the ground. www.geopolitics.in

If a kill is done near the target in endo atmospheric height still there is high probability for the nuclear debris falling over the target/residential areas causing immense collateral damage.

For any midcourse interception a nation would require immense geopolitical influence to get approval from friendly nations to allow stationing of interception systems. The ABM technology is in its nascence and can be easily overwhelmed by the multiple re-entry vehicles and decoy warheads.

The ballistic missile defence (BMD) system being developed by India is meant to protect major cities, nuclear power stations, space facilities and military installations. A two-tiered system, it consists of two intercep-

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tor missiles, namely the Prithvi Air Defence (PAD) missile for high-altitude interception, and the Advanced Air Defence (AAD) missile for low-altitude interception.

The PAD (double stage — first stage is liquid and second solid), will intercept missiles at exo-atmospheric altitudes of 50-80 km.

PAD is christened Pradyumna. The PAD is a modified Prithvi missile while the AAD is a completely new missile. The AAD missile will make intercepts at endo-atmospheric altitudes of up to 30 km. A fully-mature system will consist of launch vehicles, long-range radars, launch control centres (LCCs) and a Mission Control Centre.

The seven-metre AAD interceptor is a single-stage, solid-fuelled, guided-missile equipped with an inertial navigation system, a hi-tech computer and an electro-mechanical activator, which is fed by data uplinked from the ground-based radar.

The DRDO has already tested the two variants of the BMD system thrice — first on November 27, 2006, once again on December 6, 2007 and finally on March 6, 2009. The missile has its own mobile launcher, secure data link for interception, independent tracking and homing capabilities and its own radar.

India's missile defence system is finally intended to take out missiles with ranges up to 5000 km. The deployed system would consist of many launch vehicles, radars, Launch Control Centres (LCCs) and the Mission Control Centres (MCCs). All these are geographically distributed and connected by a secure communication network. DRDO with Israeli cooperation developed Swordfish — a long-range tracking radar (LRTR) specifically for the BMD based on Israel's Green pine radar which incidentally is part of the Arrow-II system. It is the target acquisition and fire-control radar for the BMD system.

The LRTR has a radius of 800 km and it's been reported that it can track objects as small as a cricket ball. DRDO plans to enhance its range to 1500 km by 2011, a requirement for Phase II system.

India at present lags in deploying submarine-launched ballistic missiles, the most credible of the nuclear triad (air, land and subsurface launch capability). India's naval missile programme is still based on single nuclear submarine undergoing trials and the submarine-launched ballistic missile Sagarika has not been declared operational. In this scenario, a BMD capability could add significant survivability to India's nuclear deterrent. But, in next stage India plans to develop capability to intercept ICBM, with radar over 1500-km range. India has plan to deploy its BMD in 2015.

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BATTLES FOR A PIECE

OF THE INDIAN

SKY

A stake of a whopping $112 billion worth of military contracts was incentive enough for 675 firms from 45 countries with 40 official delegations to visit Aero India 2011 at Bengaluru. And along with the hard business, there was entertainment of the aerial kind...

All Aero India 2011 photos courtesy Ministry of Defence

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Growing numbers The publicity wing of the Defence Ministry (organisers of Aero India 2011 along with the Confederation of Indian Industries), summed it up succinctly when it said: “Despite an India-Australia ICC World Cup warm-up match in Bangalore, over 75,000 visitors thronged Aero India 2011 venue on Sunday…”

“We issued three lakh RFIDs (Radio Frequency Identity Devices) and still could not meet all the demand,” Wg Cdr M D Singh, Joint Director, Defence Exhibition Organisation, said on the huge demand for passes to the show.

From the very start, Aero India 2011 preparations were catered to be the biggest so far. Given the increasing popularity of the show that offers serious business opportunities and platform to forge part-

AERO INDIA WAS THE ONE SHOW THAT THE AVIATION COMMUNITY WAS WAITING FOR nerships, Aero India expositions in future will undoubtedly remain an important destination for all aerospace industries of the world. There were nearly 75,000 business visitors and around 200 business-to-business meetings held.

Breaking records Aero India 2011 was the one show that the aviation community in the country was waiting for. Indeed, the five-day show was worth the wait since this time around, it created records in terms of its size and content. The organisers of the latest edition, in fact, got requests for 1.75 lakh general visitors, a lakh more than the 2009 figure.

Since it began - first as Avia-India in 1993; the name was changed to Aero India in 1998 - the show has grown in strength. The growth was noticeable in 2007 when the exhibition area rose sharply from the 18,000 sq mt mark in 2005 to 30,000 sq mt in 2007, 44,000 sq mt in 2009 and 75,000 sq mt in 2011. There were 675 exhibitors - almost a 100 more than the 581 in 2009. Of these, the number of international participants was 380 while there were only 295 domestic ones.

TOP BRACKET: The biggest ever aero show attracted huge attention.

(Above and following pages) a few scenes from the show!

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“WE WILL FOLLOW OFFSET OBLIGATIONS” T C Chan, MD, Rockwell Collins on India operations and the future

On Indian operation Obviously, we are chasing a number of programmes. We have 270 software engineers working at our centre in Hyderabad. Our vision eventually is that when we win contracts, we will partner with Indian firms and design system for Indian requirements. To us delivery on time and within budget is very important. We will continue to grow in Hyderabad. We will develop our Delhi office, design and tailor our product for the Indian market.

What began with one Chinese journalist asking Secretary, Defence Production, in his pre-show press conference about China not being invited to the show, went to next level when a Chinese female journalist questioned Defence Minister A K Antony on why she was being allowed to cover only the inaugural function and asked for permission for the whole show. “She is a very energetic lady. Make all arrangements to ensure she covers the show,” Antony replied with equal energy. The lady clearly had the bigger picture in mind when she asked about the possibility of Sino-Indian joint development in defence. Said Anthony: “There are still a few differences between the two countries. We’ve some unresolved border disputes. But in some areas, our ties are becoming stronger which is a positive sign.” After 49 years of Chinese invasion of ‘62, MoD again had to deal with a forceful ‘Chinese invasion’.

Why and whom?

We are working with all the three services. We are selling systems and participating in aircraft upgradation, data link and communication programmes. We are providing data link network and communication solutions to the Indian Army and communication programmes for the Indian Navy. We do have a training and simulation business for training of military pilots for both helicopter and transport aircraft.

One of the most important topics of gossip during the show was “who was flying whom”.

This question was a matter of life and death for the television journalists for whom it seemed a matter of life and death. They did Dhoni to death for his ‘no go’ and then got under the skin of actor Shahid Kapoor. Come on, grow up boys and girls!

US Ambassador Timothy Roemer had a one hour flight in the Lockheed Martin F-16 and US Assistant Secretary for State for Political-Military Affairs, Andrew Shapiro had on the Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornet. Lockheed had an added plus with Shahid Kapoor.

On turnover

Mine is better

We are $4.7b company equally shared by military and civilian business. In military, we have just begun. The prospect is really significant.

As expected the MMRCA (Medium MultiRole Combat Aircraft) was at the core of whole show. But the technically informed blokes were found gossiping about whose AESA (Active Electronically Scanned Array) was better and which company was lying more. Even the companies’ briefing was focussed more about how their AESA was going to impact the dog fights. One line which stood out was: “My AESA is fully integrated and can’t say the same about others.”

The flow of information was mindboggling yet the element of deception was evident.

For the uninitiated, AESA helps in scanning terrain and improves a pilot’s situational capability.

On current programmes

On the future When we will win contracts we will follow offset obligations. We have had discussions with offset partners. Rockwell Collins has technology in avionics and communication for the Indian market. We are looking for strategic partners for technology transfer. We take fresh engineers and give them training on our technology so that we can build technology. We are here for the longterm.

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People’s Party In keeping with tradition, the last two days of the show was for the public. The general perception was no business was possible March 2011

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g SPECIALREPORT on Sunday, the last day of the show, but by noon of Saturday, the general public had taken over the show. One could see the general public entering and executives leaving simultaneously. It was total chaos. Most of the company representatives closed down their stalls by noon and left. It was near stampede situation in the halls. It was another matter whether anyone could see and absorb anything worthwhile in such chaos.

Savvy diplomacy Diplomats have an air of detached eloquence around them. But the business and strategic burden of delivering for their country often brings them down to terra firma.

The Media Lobby -without any air-conditioning and full of littered magazines and show dailies - saw plenty of diplomatic interventions. The French Ambassador Jérôme Bonnafont, for example, spoke passionately with a small bunch of journalists without any protocol. He was pitching for the longterm defence cooperation with India. The long list of diplomats and ambassadors who marked their presence in the heat and dust of Bengaluru proves a point that India has arrived in more ways than one.

Sprightly at 62 On the inaugural day, the Surya Kiran acrobatic team gave their traditional performance making everyone in the audience stand up and cheer for the team full of young and enthusiastic pilots from the IAF. But what caught everyone’s attention was the team leader of the Red Bulls, Radka Machova, a veteran of 62 years with 29 years of aerial acrobatic experience. The enormous energy and enthusiasm for flying was vivid in their nine performances within five days. But she seems to be enthralled by Aero India. She said, “Aero India 2011 was definitely one of the best organised festivals. The incredible crowds that have only grown as the days progressed. I am impressed with the scale and magnitude of things in India and Aero India in particular.”

What after MMRCA? From the preparatory days to post-Aero India, every discussion would end with whether this edition was the biggest. PostMMRCA, whether this show have the same charm and business potential is another question on everyone’s mind. It does sound logical that the interest could diminish, but if we go into the show details one can see the gaps in the argument. Off course, the www.geopolitics.in

“YOU CAN TRAIN HOW TO FIGHT WARS” Chris Stellawag, Director, Marketing Communication, on the importance of training on simulators

On Indian operation We have started the Helicopter Academy to Train by Simulation of Flying (HATSOFF) in a joint venture with Hindustan Aeronautics Limited at Bengaluru.

India’s first high fidelity, level D (highest level) helicopter simulation for Bell 412 - the first delivery for civil variance of the Dhruv - will start in May. Two more simulators are coming in for Dhruv military and Eurocopter’s Dauphin. We are going to have four cockpits, where each can roll off and roll on with a single simulator. Training for the Bell 412 will begin in July. We are building simulators for C-130 J. CAE is the exclusive training provider for Lockheed Martin’s C-130J. We are excited to add the Indian Air Force to our list of customers.

On business We have our business divided in two verticals: military products and services. Military business for the first time has surpassed our civil business, which is slightly above $ 800m.

Our total turnover is around Canadian $1.6 b. We are very bullish on military simulation. There will be more use of simulation as the cost advantage is difficult to ignore; it is around one-tenth of the actual aircraft training. The military buys weapons systems for operations and the same weapon is used for training purposes. Wear and tear does have costs.

Some training can’t be done on real systems and can be done only on simulators. If you can network your simulator you can train how to fight wars.

On investments We have a workforce of around 320 employees. In this market we have done a lot of investment. We are looking for good returns.

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“YOU CAN TRAIN HOW TO FIGHT WARS” Jun Hyun, Manager Marketing, Korean Aerospace Industry is optimistic about the KT-1 being chosen by India

On the competition We have two trainer aircraft, designed and manufactured on our own, namely KT-1 basic trainer and T-50 advanced jet trainer. We responded to the request for proposal to replace the HPT-32 basic trainer in December 2009. We submitted our proposal in April 2010 for KT-1. Last October, we completed field trial evaluations at Jamnagar. Our performance was very good.

We fully met the Indian air staff quality requirement. I think the IAF is thoroughly satisfied.

On the negotiations The MoD and IAF are evaluating field trial reports. They may select aircraft for commercial negotiations, which might begin in the next couple of months. Several memorandum of understanding have been signed for offset and if we are selected we will have a detailed proposal.

On the future products Korea is operating over 50 planes and the Korean Air Force will have 140 units.

Korea is replacing the T-38 US trainer. Our utility helicopter is undergoing flying tests. The Korean Army is operating UH1H and MD500 helicopters developed

by KAI. These programmes are in cooperation with Eurocopter and the T-50 is in cooperation with Lockheed Martin.

On global customers KT-1 is being flown by a number of countries. Indonesia is operating around 17 aircraft and Turkey has 40 aircraft since 2007. It’s an operationallyproven aircraft as the Korean Air Force has been using it since 2000. We are planning to sell this to the South American and Asian markets. We also see Europe as a potential market. We are also participating in Poland with our advanced trainer jet T-50. For KT-1, India is the biggest market as the requisition is for 75 aircraft, which can also increase to 181 in future.

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show will have no huge deal to back it. Aero shows, however, are not meant for deals alone, but showcasing of products, business interaction and, of course, across the globe networking. One must also remember once the big deals are over, offsets and joint ventures will create domestic companies that would certainly like to fly high.

Not to forget the civilian-domestic market.

If the Paris Air Show is certainly not about deals, why should it be with Aero India?

Engine business What would be the single most important criterion for MMRCA selection? If we go by the grapevine, it’s the engine? The twin engine aircraft is the basic criterion for selection, many informed people rumoured years back, but has been strongly refuted by single engine contenders. This debate saw its pinnacle when Boeing made a statement that the twin engine will make it to the shortlist, an unexpected direct assault which saw immediate rebuttal by the single engine vendor. Raw emotion propelled the arguments and no one could afford to be silent when $12 billion is at stake.

Embraer and India 2011 will see Embraer completing its first defence contract with India, when it will deliver all the three EMB-145 for indigenous airborne early warning and control (AEW&C). In the $208-million deal awarded in 2008, Embraer customises the airframe of the E-145 regional aircraft for radars to be integrated by DRDO. Embraer has also delivered five E-145s for VIP transport roles with enhanced communications features.

Discussions are going on, joint development of light turboprop trainer aircraft. The company sees opportunities in C4ISR (command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) domain and executive transports.

Eurocopter tops The AS550 C3 Fennec is in the race for 197 Reconnaissance and Surveillance Helicopters by the Indian Ministry of Defence, expected to be inked around middle of this year, caught everyone’s attention as it was the only military helicopter on display. This attracted numerous dignitaries including the Minister of State for Defence, M M Pallam Raju; Chief of Army Staff, Gen V K Singh; Deputy Chief of Army Staff, Lt Gen J B Singh; and Deputy Chief of Air Staff, Air Marshal R K Sharma, in addition to these March 2011

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g SPECIALREPORT the fear of sanctions and non-compliance to agreements were very high. But the US was trying to prove that it is looking for a long-term relation but never mentioned joint development, whereas the Europeans were ready for any form of joint ventures.

“OUR FOCUS IS TEST EQUIPMENT” Paul Dhillon, CEO, VTI, on sustaining business growth of 30 per cent for the next 15 years

Tejas India debut

On Indian operation Our Bengaluru facility, which was started five years back, is a supplement to the US facility. We are now focussing on the Indian market. We have recently signed an agreement with Axis aerospace to provide complete solutions for testing of aerospace equipment. Today, India has a worldwide reputation in engineering outsourcing and is moving towards turnkey projects.

In the aerospace industry, requirement of test and quality is very important. The need for testing is critical. We are trying to bring capability for developing our own technology rather than relying on outsourcing. The Indian Air Force has multiple original equipment manufacturers that provide equipment. We are focusing on IAF requirements. Our focus is to bring turnkey automotive test equipment (ATE). With better quality of ATE you get better quality of products.

On turnover We do a couple of million dollars per year transaction in India. We are achieving 30 per cent growth per year, which we think is sustainable for the next 15 years.

On contracts Most of the contracts are in aerospace and the defence sectors. We need approval for announcing these contracts. There is nothing major to announce at present. Worldwide, if you look at us, we are in every major ATE system.

On partners Our largest partner is Axis Aerospace Technology. We are pretty much their backbone for avionics tests. But in future we intend to go for turnkey projects.

On Aero India For us, it is a good place to meet key individuals. Our goal is to provide indigenous ATE systems to the Indian government.

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were the foreign dignitaries like German Minister of Defence, Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg; French Ambassador, Jerome Bonnafont. Eurocopter which has a 45-year of association with India, commands 49 per cent of the global helicopter market and in October 2010 became the first global helicopter major with an Indian subsidiary.

Eurocopter is going to deliver five AS350 B3 helicopters to local customers during this year. Global Vectra, Summit Aviation and SS Aviation have deals for three helicopters.

The company has also its supply chain in India where HAL shipsets airframe components of Ecureuil/Fennec helicopters.

A share of the pie KPMG has predicted that India will give military contracts worth $112 billion by 2016. This edition saw 675 firms from 45 countries with 40 official delegations visiting Bengaluru to look for opportunities and partnerships in Indian market. The big flip came a month before the show when IndiGo, one of the budget carriers ordered 180 A320 passenger aircraft with Europe’s Airbus Industries for a reported $15.6-billion.

Dinesh Keskar, President of Boeing India commented, “We estimate India’s annual passenger growth at 15 per cent in the next five years will be the highest in the whole world.”

Long-term rishta The US contingent was the largest of all and most sought after. The importance of Aero India for the US can be understood by the presence of the Ambassador, the Under Secretary for State, the Under Secretary for Commerce and numerous other officials at the venue.

The biggest carrot that the US had was the latest and the most advanced technology to offer but the demand for signing the different agreements related with defence cooperation was the main point of contention. The partnership proposal did not cut through the perception that US wanted to restrict India with these agreement and

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Aero India 2011 will also be remembered for the first-ever participation of the firstever-built supersonic fighter jet in India.

Light combat aircraft ‘Tejas’. The aerobatics created quite an uproar from the audience and should be great morale booster for the much-criticised development team of ADA (Aeronautical Development Agency) and HAL (Hindustan Aeronautics Limited). Its trainer and naval variant were also for display. After two-and-a-half decades of sanction-ridden development, the LCA has come up as the world’s lightest and smallest fighter jet but it still flies with an American F404-GE-IN20 engine from General Electric. The Kaveri engine being developed for LCA is still far from operational.

Where is the MiG-35?

Rumour mills were working overtime about the absence of the MiG-35 from the aero show. The general perception was that Russia had bagged the T-50 fifth generation aircraft deal worth $30 b, it was not interested in the MMRCA. But Russians refuted this.

They said, the IAF has already seen the performance of the MiG-35 and they are very much in the race. The Russians reiterated their commitment for technology transfer to India.

Naval Typhoon unveiled BAE Systems and Eurofighter unveiled details about the studies carried out for the initial definition of the navalised version of the Typhoon for the first time at Aero India 2011. The naval Typhoon has 95 per cent commonality with the land variant. Minimum design changes will allow sharing of most of the spare parts and test equipment between the air force and navy fleets. Both the variants will have common sensors, systems and weapons that will reduce aircrew training and fleet maintenance requirements. The two variants can follow the common upgrade path. Any new capabilities can be available to both the air force and naval versions in the same timescales.

The naval Typhoon has exceptional thrustto-weight ratio which allows the aircraft to take off from a carrier without using a catapult but with a simple and much cheaper “ski-jump”.

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A 10-YEAR BATTLE FINALLY ENDS! It was the grandmother of all battles! The $3.5-billion contract, which was bitterly contested in a 10-year process, will provide an estimated 50,000 aerospace jobs. The contract is to build a fleet of 179 aerial refueling tankers that carries the promise of work for an estimated 50,000 aerospace employees. Does it have something for India?

In a pronouncement that took industry experts by surprise, it was announced that Boeing had bested European Aeronautic Defense & Space Co (EADS) to build 18 planes for $3.5 billion. The fight between Boeing and EADS was bitter and hard fought. The lucrative tanker contract is believed to be the last new major Pentagon purchase for years to come."Boeing was the clear winner," said William J Lynn, Deputy Secretary of Defense, in making the announcement. "We went through a process that evaluated war-fighting requirements, evaluated price, evaluated lifecycle costs. And the process yielded the result it did with Boeing winning." Follow-up tanker contracts could involve more than $100 billion over several decades, analysts said.

In the recent tender the Indian Air Force is seeking proposals for the delivery of five new aerial tankers at an estimated cost of $2 billion. After Boeing dropped out of the race, only Airbus A330 and the Russian IL78MKI remained. Both are addressing the IAF requirements for the delivery of new platforms. Will the US victory see the return of Boeing?

File picture of US Air Force KC-135 tanker

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The winning bid was based on a modified Boeing 767 passenger jet. The announcement stunned many aerospace industry analysts who thought that EADS and its larger contender, an aircraft based on an Airbus A330, were sure to win. "We're honoured to be given the opportunity to build the Air Force's next tanker and provide a vital capability to the men and women of our armed forces," said Jim McNerney, Boeing Chief Executive. "Our team is ready now to apply our 60 years of tanker experience to develop and build an airplane that will serve the nation for decades to come." The first aircraft will be delivered in 2017.

Efforts to replace the tankers started in 2001. Boeing won in 2004, but the contract was withdrawn because of an ethics scandal. The competition was relaunched in 2007, Northrop Grumman teamed up with EADS, despite facing political backlash for joining with a foreign entity. They won in 2008 in a huge upset, because Boeing had built all of the 415 tankers in the current fleet. But the decision was overturned amid a storm of protests by Boeing. After new specifications were released, Northrop dropped out. But EADS went at it alone and now that the latest decision has been made, the fight might not be over yet. EADS has 10 days to file a protest with the Government Accountability Office

The Boeing KC-135 is an aerial refueling military aircraft, based on the 707 platform. The KC-135 was the US Air Force's first jet-powered refueling tanker. It was initially tasked to refuel strategic bombers, but was used extensively in the Vietnam War and later conflicts such as Desert Storm to extend the range and endurance of Air Force, Navy and Marine tactical fighters and bombers.

Serving with the United States Air Force since 1957, it is one of just six military fixed-wing aircraft with over 50 years of continuous service with its original operator.

KC-767 48.51 m The Boeing KC-767 is a military aerial refueling and strategic transport aircraft developed from the Boeing 767-200ER. The tanker had been developed for the Italian and Japanese air forces, who ordered four tankers each. Financing of the development of the aircraft has largely been borne by Boeing, in that it hoped to get a major orders from the US Air Force. Now that order has arrived.

A330 MRTT 58.8 m Boeing's advantage? The maintenance contract. Where Boeing wins hands-down is its decades of experiences in tanker maintenance contracts for USAF (US Air Force). This is something EADS/Airbus cannot possibly match and it's a real plus for Boeing. Of course, there are others in the maintenance business, but Boeing is the leader.

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Tankers are critical to the US armed forces, extending the range of fighters, bombers and other aircraft by transferring fuel to them in flight. The NewGen Tanker combines the latest, most advanced technology with the proven Boeing 767 commercial airplane. It has a modern, digital flight deck based on the new Boeing 787 commercial airliner, and advanced defensive systems so it can safely operate close to the fight. It meets or exceeds all Air Force requirements. Boeing will build the NewGen Tanker with a low-risk approach. It will use a trained and experienced US work force at existing facilities in Washington state and Kansas, and an existing supplier network in more than 40 states.

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The Airbus A330 Multi Role Tanker Transport (MRTT) is an aerial refueling tanker aircraft based on the civilian A330-200. The A330 MRTT has been ordered by the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF), UK's Royal Air Force (RAF), United Arab Emirates Air Force, and Royal Saudi Air Force. The Northrop Grumman KC45 and the EADS KC-45 were versions of the A330 MRTT proposed for the United States Air Force. Royal Air Force will lease 14 aircraft, with two currently completed and undergoing flight testing.

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WITH THE COUNTRY ENTERING THE FINAL STAGES OF SELECTING 126 MEDIUM MULTI-ROLE COMBAT AIRCRAFT FROM AMONG SIX WELL-KNOWN MANUFACTURERS, THE STAGE IS SET FOR A VITAL TRANSFORMATION OF INDIA'S AIR POWER. PRAKASH NANDA ATTEMPTS TO FIND OUT THE RELATIVE MERITS AND DEMERITS OF THE BIDDERS IN WHAT IS CONSIDERED TO BE A HIGHLY SENSITIVE COMPETITION

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OMMERCIAL NEGOTIATIONS for the much talked-about medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA) could start anytime now and the highly anticipated deal to buy 126 aircraft at an approximate cost of $10 billion (around `42,000 crore) may well be clinched by this September. “The offsets problems have been sorted out. Unless dissatisfied vendors put a spoke in the wheel, I am sure the contract will be signed by September 2011,” asserted Air Chief Marshall P V Naik while talking to the press during the recently-concluded eighth edition of Aero India at Bengaluru.

The prospective deal has drawn such worldwide attention that American analyst

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Ashley J Tellis has described the ongoing competition among the eight countries and six companies to clinch what is going to be India’s biggest single defence contract as “Dogfight”. As he says, “The MMRCA competition has garnered high-profile attention for its sheer size, its international political implications, and its impact on the viability of key aircraft manufacturers. Furthermore, the winner will obtain a long and lucrative association with a rising power and secure a toehold into other parts of India’s rapidly modernising strategic industries.”

India floated its Request for Proposals (RFP) for the MMRCA in August 2007. Over the next two years, six companies entered the race — the American Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet and Lockheed Martin F-16IN

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Super Viper, the French Dassault Aviation Rafale, the Russian RSK MiG’s MiG-35, the European Eurofighter Consortium’s Typhoon, and the Swedish Saab Gripen NG (Next Generation). In between 2009 and 2010, the Indian Air Force (IAF) supervised trials and demonstrations in the home countries of these manufacturers as well as in Indian locations such as Bengaluru, Jaisalmer, and Leh. It is said that the IAF tested these aircraft according to 660 technical benchmarks. It also took into account the RFP’s requirement that 60 per cent of the aircraft’s technology be transferred to India in four phases.

Of the 126 aircraft, the first 18 will be delivered in flyaway form by the original equipment manufacturer, with the remaining 108

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File picture of the IAF’s Mirage 2000

to be assembled in India through a combination of kits supplied by the foreign seller and indigenous Indian production. The idea is to ensure that 50 per cent of the foreign exchange component of the purchase costs was defrayed through direct offsets within the Indian aerospace sector.

The IAF, the Air Chief said, “submitted its report to the Ministry of Defence (MoD) in end-July 2010, recommending a list of aircraft it would like to have. Thereafter, there were many questions and counter-queries.

Many of the hurdles have been crossed and we believe the price negotiations will begin in a week or two”. But then, as analysts say, the price negotiations are often tricky and lengthy, something Naik is not even ruling out, though he would love to have the final

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clear picture by this September.

The rivalry among the bidders could well delay the decision. As it is, a senior Boeing official has made a contentious prediction that the commercial negotiations would involve only three short-listed manufacturers of twinengine aircraft. Predictably, the Lockheed authorities have clarified that this was not the case as the RFP had not made it a condition that only aircraft with twin-engine would participate in the bid. F-16 and Saab’s Gripen are single-engined fighter planes. Reliable sources say that the IAF had initially shortlisted two bidders but then under relentless pressure from some powerful quarters, it added one more. Its sealed envelope is now lying with the MoD, which is supposed to open it anytime now for commercial negotiations.

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Left to it and given Defence Minister A K Antony’s relentless endeavour to ensure transparency in military purchases, the MoD would like to take a little bit more time to make its final choice on the MMRCA tender.

Antony had declared that the deal would be clinched by the end of the financial year 201112, but the Air Chief’s statement to decide latest by September this year suggests that the IAF wants a quick decision. And that, analysts say, is understandable. Given India’s strategic vision, it was estimated way back in 1959 that the IAF would require 64 squadrons, including 45 combat aircraft squadrons. But the budgetary constraints in the Sixties and Seventies resulted in a reality-check and in the 1980s, it was said that the optimum requirement should be that of 45 squadrons, of

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g COVER STORY “Uncle Sam” by India. Right which 39.5 squadrons were to from US Assistant Secretary of consist of fighter aircraft. This State Andrew Shapiro to Presistrength was more or less dent Barak Obama, none have managed for some years. But hesitated in recent months to over the last 10 years or so, canvass on Indian soil for the because of the retirement of suitability and reliability of older fighter aircraft (particularAmerican arms and weapons ly the MiG-21s, MiG-23s and for “strategic partner” India.

MiG-25s) and delays in defence Sources say that it is, perhaps, procurement process, the IAF’s no coincidence that US Secreforce levels have reached an alltary of State Hillary Clinton time low of 29 squadrons. At a will be in New Delhi in April for time when Pakistan and China, the India-US strategic diawith which India has fought logue, as that is around the wars, are significantly modtime when the IAF’s envelope ernising their air power, the IAF on the MMRCA deal will be mandarins understandably unsealed. want expanded aircraft invenIt is against this background tories sooner than later. that one may assess the MMRIt is believed, however, that CA contestants, their strength while making the final choice, and weaknesses. To begin the MoD is likely to take techniTECH-FRIENDLY: The French Rafale has the ability to fulfil the IAF’s with, it is to be noted that the cal, economic and political conneeds of technology IAF initially wanted lighter airsiderations into count. Technicraft (with 20-tonne weight), cal considerations — and here but now it is prepared to consider even airAs regards the political considerations the IAF’s recommendations matter — include craft of medium weight. At the lighter end, affecting the ultimate choice, and here more the quality of the aircraft, its sensors and the Gripen and the F-16IN come in with than the military leadership of the IAF, the avionics, weapons, aerodynamic effectivemaximum takeoff weights of some 17 and 21 civilian-controlled MoD will play the deterness, and mission performance. It may be tonnes, respectively. At the middle of the mining role, attempts will be made to ensure noted here that since India is essentially a stamedium category lie the MiG-35, the that the supplier country does not make tusquoist country, having no territorial ambiTyphoon, and the Rafale, all possessing maxIndia vulnerable during war time while suptions, the IAF has been essentially patterned imum takeoff weights of about 22-24 tonnes. plying cutoffs. Even during peace time, there to be a defensive force, securing India’s air And at the heavy end of the medium categomust not be any problems with regard to space and providing support to the ground ry lies the F/A-18E/F, which has a maximum services and spare parts. Equally important, forces. The idea here is that in case of any takeoff weight of some 30 tonnes. The Gripen the prospective supplier must agree to India’s attack, the Air Force will be able to engage and the F-16IN are single-engine aircraft; the terms and conditions that improve its larger with the enemy air force till the forces on the former’s GE-414 engine produces some military capacity through a substantial techground and vital assets are relocated and 22,000 pounds of thrust, whereas the latter’s nology infusion. Last but not the least, the redeployed. However, with India emerging as GE F110 lies in the 30,000-pound category. supplier country is the one which could be global power, and having vital economic The remaining competitors are all twinIndia’s global strategic partner and enhance interests spanning an area stretching from the engine platforms that possess power plants its overall global geopolitical imperatives.

Suez Canal to the Straits of Malacca, the IAF producing between 14,000 to 22,000 pounds These political considerations have played a needs aircraft that are best suited for counterof dry thrust each. However, all the six are vital role in the still strong Indo-Russian milair missions necessary to secure Indian air fundamentally fourth-generation fighters, itary relationship. And not for nothing that space, assuming they can service the anti-surthe United States, of late, wants to be seen as based on designs developed during the 1970s face requirement satisfactorily as well. and 1980s. They are marked by enhanced The strategic objective here is to acquire maneuverability, fly-by-wire digital flight and maintain the requisite degree of airspace control systems, relatively high thrust-tocontrol in order to protect both the Indian weight ratios, and the ability to engage in homeland and its forward operating military both BVR (Beyond Visual Range) and WVR forces and to apply pressure on the adversary (Within Visual Range) combat utilising both by interdicting its war-fighting capabilities missiles and guns. and its national assets directly. In other words, Coming to individual participants, MiGwhile the IAF essentially remains a defensive 35 is believed to be the cheapest, at $45 milforce, it is to be well-endowed with capabililion per aircraft. Secondly, it is the latest and ties for undertaking offensive and preventive most advanced incarnation of the MiG-29 operations if situations so warrant. That is Fulcrum A, already among the most agile air where the importance of multi-role combat combat fighters in the IAF inventory today. aircraft lies. They can play any role to mainIndian fighter pilots, therefore, will take least tain air superiority. They must have both airtime to be familiar with it. Thirdly, Russia’s to-ground and air-to-air capabilities.

THE FINAL CHOICE WILL DEPEND ON TECHNICAL, ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL CONSIDERATIONS

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“LOCKHEED

MAY BE VERY TOUGH, BUT WE HAVE SEVERAL TRUMP CARDS - THE MIG-35’S SUPERB PERFORMANCE CHARACTERISTICS AND THE FACT THAT RUSSIA AND INDIA SHARE A LONG-STANDING PARTNERSHIP IN STRATEGIC AND POLITICAL COOPERATION.”

MARTIN IS COMMITTED TO A LONG-TERM PARTNERSHIP IN INDIA. IT IS IMPORTANT TO BE A PARTNER FOR THE LONG TERM NOT JUST FOR A PROJECT, WHICH WE AS A CORPORATION HAVE PROVEN TIME AND AGAIN.”

“IF THE SUPER HORNET IS SELECTED TO BECOME INDIA’S NEW MULTI-ROLE COMBAT FIGHTER, THEN 108 OF THOSE 126 AIRCRAFT WILL BE BUILT IN INDIA

BY INDIANS WORKING FOR HAL, EXPANDING HAL’S SUPER HORNET WORK SCOPE BEYOND THE WIRE HARNESSES AND GUN BAY DOORS.”

ALEXEI FYODOROV CHIEF OF RUSSIA'S UNITED AIRCRAFT CORPORATION

ORVILLE PRINS, VICE PRESIDENT, BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT, INDIA, LOCKHEED MARTIN AERONAUTICS

RICK MCCRARY, DIRECTOR, INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT, BOEING MILITARY AIRCRAFT

“THE COMPETITION

long experience of technological transfers to India gives the MiG-35 an edge. And finally, as Alexei Fyodorov, chief of Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) that produces the aircraft, says, “The competition may be very tough, but we have several trump cards — the MiG-35’s superb performance characteristics and the fact that Russia and India share a long-standing partnership in strategic and political cooperation.”

However, the problem with the MiG-35 is that it is still an airplane in development. It has not yet been purchased by the Russian Air Force. It thus violates the stipulation of the MMRCA RFP that the aircraft be in the operational employ of the producer country’s air force. In fact, if speculations in the Russian press are anything to go by, it is not a serious bidder. What has given credence to all this is that the MiG-35 prototype did not participate in the Aero India show at Bengaluru.

Secondly, as has been the recent experience, Russians are proving to be difficult when matters pertaining to the servicing, maintenance and spare parts of their products are concerned. In that sense, if the IAF carries through on its commitment to consider the lifecycle costs of the MMRCA competitors in its selection process, the Russian MiG-35 platform is likely to be the most disadvantaged. It may be the cheapest to buy, but its lifecycle cost will be highest and thus negates the cost-advantage. Thirdly, there is also the argument that it may not make strategic sense for the IAF to be over-dependent on Russia for its inventory and that it must diversify its sources of weapons.

Speculations are that after MiG-35, the F16IN is the cheapest at $60 million per aircraft. It is considered to be the most advanced F-16 ever built and is designed to meet or exceed all of India’s multi-role www.geopolitics.in

requirements. This “ultimate fourth generation fighter” has been tailored exclusively to meet or exceed all of India’s MMRCA requirements, say its promoters. It has “Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) Radar, NetCentric Warfare Capability, Advanced Survivability Features and Proven Combat and Operational Effectiveness” to impress the IAF. With “over 400,000 combat hours, over 100,000 combat missions flown, over 2,200,000 ordnance delivered in combat, over one million operational sorties in support of the global war on terror”, the F-16 is the fighter of choice for 24 nations with 52 follow-on buys, including successful international licensed manufacturing of 928 aircraft.

Lockheed Martin officials say that they have demonstrated the ability to transfer advanced technology successfully, with over $37 billion in offsets being realised by 40 countries. They are prepared for joint technology development for international markets. It has been reported that Lockheed Martin has even offered to transfer the entire F16 production line to Bengaluru, if the aircraft is selected in the MMRCA competition, though perceptible observers take this news with a pinch of salt. Orville Prins, Vice Presi-

THE SAFETY RECORD OF SINGLE ENGINE IS AS GOOD AS TWIN ENGINE AS IT REDUCES THE LIFECYCLE COST

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dent, Business Development, India, Lockheed Martin Aeronautics told GEOPOLITICS: “Lockheed Martin is committed to a longterm partnership in India. It is important to be a partner for the long term not just for a project, which we as a corporation have proven time and again.”

Strategically seen, the F-!6 promoters argue that the benefits to India of an F-16IN buy would be unparalleled because of the gains accruing to New Delhi from a stronger partnership with the United States. Such a development would not only strengthen proIndian forces in the US but also would send important signals to all of India’s neighbours, especially the principal adversaries, Pakistan and China.

However, the factors that can go against the F-16IN include its feature of single engine, even though Prins says that it is a non-issue as the RFP does not specify the requirements of a single engine. “The safety record of single engine is as good as twin engine. Furthermore, a single engine reduces the lifecycle cost of the aircraft”, he said. The other big problem with the aircraft is that India may not like the fact that Pakistan Air Force has had them in its inventory for 30 years. However, the Americans counter it by arguing that there are considerable differences between Pakistan’s F-16 Block 50 and proposed F-16IN. The AESA radar, the Defensive Avionics Suite (DAS), and the engines are much superior in the F-16IN. F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, Boeing’s candidate in the MMRCA competition, is rumoured to be costing fractionally higher than F-16IN, at $60.3 million per piece. Talking to GEOPOLITICS, Rick McCrary, Director, International Business Development, Boeing Military Aircraft, Boeing Defense, Space & Security, says that the F/A-18 Super Hornet is March 2011

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“WE HAVE BEEN

“AN ACQUISITION OF

“GRIPEN NG IS A REVOLUTION BECAUSE IT COMBINES ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY AND OPERATIONAL EFFECTIVENESS IN AN AFFORDABLE PACKAGE THAT NO OTHER FIGHTER AIRCRAFT CAN HOPE TO MATCH. IT CLAIMS TO HAVE A MORE POWERFUL GENERAL ELECTRIC F414G ENGINE WITH THE ABILITY TO SUPERCRUISE. ”

WORKING WITH THE IAF FOR A VERY LONG TIME AND I AM VERY PLEASED TO SEE THE SKILLS OF THE INDIAN PILOTS ON THE MIRAGE 2000. THE SAME PILOTS CAN VERY EASILY TRAIN ON THE RAFALE, AS HAS BEEN DONE IN THE FRENCH AIR FORCE.”

THE EUROFIGHTER TYPHOON WILL CREATE MORE THAN 20,000 HIGH-SKILLED JOBS IN INDIA AND SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SELF-RELIANT INDIGENOUS DEFENCE INDUSTRY. INDIA IS FREE TO USE IT AS IT SEES FIT. IT CAN EVEN DEVELOP INDIASPECIFIC FEATURES.”

EDDY DE LA MOTTE, DIRECTOR, GRIPEN INTERNATIONAL INDIA

GENERAL JEAN-PAUL PALOMEROS, THE FRENCH AIR FORCE CHIEF

BERNHARD GERWERT, CHAIRMAN, THE SUPERVISORY BOARD OF EUROFIGHTER GmbH

the most combat proven and advanced multi-role aircraft in production. It is able to perform virtually every mission in the tactical spectrum; including air superiority, day/night/all-weather strike with precisionguided weapons, fighter escort, close air support, suppression of enemy air defences, maritime strike, reconnaissance, forward air control and tanker missions. “In fact, many of the advanced technologies that are operational on the Super Hornet today, such as the AESA radar, higher order processing, computing and fiber optic network linking systems, networked targeting, and many more, are currently long-term, developmental promises being made by other manufacturers”, he pointed out.

According to him, the 50 per cent offset obligation set in the MMRCA request for proposal will give a significant boost to the Indian defence industry’s indigenisation efforts.

Boeing will help India establish a world-class advanced production system that includes defence public sector companies, large companies, and small-to-medium-sized enterprises alike to support the Indian government’s goals to strengthen indigenous aerospace and defence capabilities. “Boeing is partnering with Indian firms of all sizes, both directly and through our extensive network of suppliers. For example, Boeing and its Super Hornet Industry Partners already have signed MOUs with 38 companies in India in support of the MMRCA campaign. And, if the Super Hornet is selected to become India’s new, advanced multi-role combat fighter, then 108 of those 126 aircraft will be built in India by Indians working for HAL, significantly expanding HAL’s Super Hornet work scope beyond the wire harnesses and gun bay doors it already provides for the US Navy programme,” he revealed. www.geopolitics.in

However, the factor that could be cited against the aircraft is its relative higher weight compared to other contestants. But the most important disadvantage it has in the eyes of some experts is over the area of technology transfer. Given that the F/A-18E/F will remain a critical US Navy strike platform for many years, that it is now being integrated in advanced variants like the E/A-18G Growler, and that it hosts incredibly sophisticated subsystems, it is quite unlikely that the US government would authorise the kind of comprehensive technology transfer that India desires.

The Next-Generation Gripen, or Gripen NG, is manufactured by Saab of Sweden.

Guessed to cost $ 82.2 million per aircraft, single-engine Grippen NG’s big advantage lies in its low weight and maneuverability. Its promoters say that the offer of Gripen IN to India is the world’s most technologically advanced multi-role fighter aircraft. Eddy de la Motte, Director — Gripen International India, told GEOPOLITICS that the aircraft is “both evolutionary and revolutionary. Evolutionary because the NG is based on today’s in-service Gripen, the multi-role fighter ordered by five air forces worldwide. With over 130,000 flight hours behind it, Gripen

THE POLITICAL BENEFITS TO INDIA FROM ACQUIRING THE GRIPEN ARE MINIMAL

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has an indisputable track record for low operational costs and total lifecycle costs that feed directly into Gripen NG. At the same time, Gripen NG is a revolution because it combines advanced technology and operational effectiveness in an affordable package that no other fighter aircraft can hope to match”.

The Gripen NG claims to have a more powerful General Electric F414G engine with the ability to supercruise. Its redesigned airframe operates at higher weights, allowing more fuel and weapons to be carried. A unique avionics architecture makes weapons and systems integration even easier and quicker. The NG operates with a fully-networked, fully-fused sensor and communications systems that gives it cutting-edge capabilities for any mission, from close air support (CAS) to beyond visual range air-to-air combat. Its biggest plus point is said to be the fact that the complete Gripen NG system is controlled by its user, with complete freedom to modify and adapt all of its components to meet national needs, without restrictions or licensing issues.

However, its disadvantages include the facts that its final configuration is not yet settled and its AESA radar is still in development stage. Since its sensors, weapons and major subsystems are sourced from third parties, there is always that element of uncertainty on their releasibility to India. One could argue that some of the countries that have lost out in the MMRCA race would deny Saab the export licenses to offer these weapons to India. Besides, the political benefits to India from acquiring the Gripen are minimal.

Many Indian experts believe that technology-wise, the French Rafale suits IAF’s needs very well. Like the Gripen, the Rafale’s greatest strength, especially in the March 2011

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MAJOR BOOSTER: F-A/18 will give a boost to India’s defence industry air combat arena, is its ability to acquire, process and fuse information from multiple sensors and present it to the pilot in a single tactical display. During its trials, the IAF pilots were said to be greatly impressed by the aircraft’s remarkable cockpit ergonomics and human factors engineering as manifested in its sensors, controls, interfaces, and displays. Its other great advantage is that it can be very well mastered by the pilots of the Mirage 2000, which India already has.

Though Rafale authorities declined to part with any information to GEOPOLITICS, General Jean-Paul Palomeros, the French Air Force Chief, told the press at the Bengaluru Aero show that France presently has two squadrons of the Rafale which are operational and multi-role, including air-to-air, air-to-ground and exclusively nuclear capable. “We have been working with the IAF for a very long time and I am very pleased to see the skills of the Indian pilots on the Mirage 2000. The same pilots can very easily train on the Rafale, as has been done in the French Air Force.” Speaking politically, the purchase of a French aircraft could be quite attractive to New Delhi as Paris has been one of its strongest supporters in the international arena. France has supported India’s claim for permanent membership in the United Nations Security Council.

The problem with the Rafale is that it has not been sold to any other country. Its estimated price of $85.4 million a piece is on the higher side. Its maintenance costs are also believed to be high. Since it has not been exported as of now, nobody is sure of what technology it will be transferring to India.Given the experience with Mirage 2000, it is said that while the French have been very good in providing spares and support for their aircraft, maintenance has yielded little by way of true transfers of either knowledge or expertise.

That leaves the Eurofighter Typhoon, built by a four-country consortium of Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom. It is widely believed that of all the aircraft, the www.geopolitics.in

Typhoon conforms closest to the Indian RFP and in a purely technical sense, it is arguably the most sophisticated airplane among all he contestants. In fact, sources say that left to it, the IAF would prefer the Typhoon to others.

It is considerably agile, with its sophisticated flight control system not only providing for carefree handling but also automatically preventing the aircraft from departing into unsafe areas. Typhoon’s twin EJ200 engines each produce about 13,500 pounds of dry thrust (and more than 20,000 pounds in full afterburner), which bequeaths the aircraft with a higher thrust-to-weight ratio at high subsonic speed (at low altitude) than most of its competitors. In fact, of all the MMRCA competitors, the Eurofighter has demonstrated some sort of supercruise capability. It also exhibits striking short takeoff and landing performance.

Importantly, the Eurofighter partner companies are keen to win India as a new industrial partner for the production and further development of the world’s most-advanced swing-role combat aircraft.

Bernhard Gerwert, CEO of Cassidian Air Systems and Chairman of the Supervisory Board of Eurofighter GmbH, has outlined details of the industrial partnership offer to integrate India as a partner in the Eurofighter programme. Gerwert says: “Our ultimate objective is to win India as the fifth partner of the group by allowing it to co-develop and coproduce future upgrades and enhancements, new sub-systems, software, etc.”

THE EUROFIGHTER TYPHOON IS AGILE, WITH ITS SOPHISTICATED FLIGHT CONTROL SYSTEM

According to him, an acquisition of the Eurofighter Typhoon will create more than 20,000 high-skilled jobs in India and support the development of a self-reliant indigenous defence industry.

On political and strategic benefits to India, Gerwert says, “Our four European partner governments do not demand enduser monitoring, site-inspections or any other agreements which compromise India’s sovereignty. Neither do our governments have implicit diplomatic demands linked to purchasing this aircraft. India is free to use it as it sees fit. It can even develop India-specific features.”

As regards, the Eurofighter’s disadvantages, its American competitors are not convinced of its technical prowess. They think that the availability of most of its advanced weapons is uncertain. Secondly, since four countries are involved in its production, there can always be question marks over technology transfer. While problems are not anticipated from the Germans, one cannot

INDUSTRY PARTNER: Eurofighter Typhoon will create more than 20,000 high-skilled jobs in India be certain about others, it is argued. Thirdly, and this is most important, the Typhoon is believed to be the most expensive aircraft in the MMRCA competition, coming in at close to $125 million a piece. Of course, Gerwert argues that overall it will cost less as the Typhoon is designed for low lifecycle costs.

“If the maintenance, servicing and cooperating costs exceed the initial purchase of an aircraft over a time, this may make a seemingly economical aircraft a very expensive one in the long run,” he cautions.

Considering all this, the IAF, in the final analysis, expects that whatever may be the government’s final choice based on a combination of technical, economic and political factors, it should strengthen the air power of a rising global power worthy of respect.

With inputs from Rohit Srivastava

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INTERNAL SECURITY SMALL IS DEADLY Proliferation of iIlegal small arms pose a great threat

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MAOISTS RAISE `2,000 CRORE EVERY YEAR

MAOISTS ENTRENCHED in large parts of the country run an elaborate extortion network to keep the wheels of ‘revolution’ turning. The Maoist organisation can rival a mid-size corporate house with an annual turnover upwards of `1,600 crore, 10 per cent of which is collected from Orissa.

The Chhattisgarh Director General of Police Vishwa Ranjan is on record that the Maoists make close to `2,000 crore through extortion. He called the figure a “guestimate” based on seized Maoist cashbooks and other vital papers recovered in recent months.

In Bihar’s Naxalite-dominated districts, the Maoists have a sizeable presence in districts such as Gaya, Aurangabad, Rohtas, Kaimur, Arwal, Bhojpur, Munger, Lakhisarai and Sheikhpura. From these areas alone, they make about `200 crore every year, according to Bihar Police. In Maoist terminology, this is not extortion but a collection of levy.

Matters are worse in neighbouring Jharkhand. The Indian Defence Yearbook quotes Union Home Ministry figures to say Maoists extort nearly `320 crore every year from the state. The yearbook acknowledges the Maoist extortion machinery has been eating into the state’s development work.

www.geopolitics.in

Extortion estimates from Maharashtra are relatively conservative. Maoist earnings from the state swings between `5 crore and `25 crore every year.

The Maoist fund collectors armtwist government officials and milk central and state funds for development projects. They terrorise industrialists, small businessmen, big and small contractors, tendu leaf traders and even poor villagers. In Orissa, they routinely grab 10 per cent of government money earmarked for development and infrastructure work.

In fact, a senior Orissa Police officer from the Naxalite-dominated belt recently wrote to the state government complaining about the drain of government money to Maoists.

In this, he laid a considerable share of the blame on non-governmental organisations (NGOs). The Naxalites brazenly grab development funds that reach panchayats and NGOs. This also happens because many elected rural body members are complicit.

They often win polls with Maoist help.

Illegal mining in states such as Orissa and Jharkhand is a rich source of revenue for the Maoists. The extortion network is so huge and so well-oiled that a couple of years ago when three hardcore cadres in Orissa deserted

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the Maoist ranks they took away with them `6 crore. Maoists are active in West Bengal’s Birbhum district too, where stone crushers and the illegal coal business rake in crores.

These industries are now extortion targets.

Police believe that the Maoists will soon go all out to bring major coal mining areas of Bengal and the coal mafia under their control.

Going by the Maharashtra Police, Naxalites extract money from daily wagers and have a programme for this called ‘work-a-day’. Maharashtra’s private inter-state transporters are often easy targets so are civil contractors. Other than organised extortion, lower-level cadre are believed to intervene in personal and local disputes for a fee. This money often does not go to the Maoist central fund and there have been cases of the extortionists deserting the organisation. Sometimes, such rogue elements are eliminated by Red squad members.

Much of the extorted money goes in buying arms and ammunition, procuring vehicles, purchasing uniforms and medicines, publicity and propaganda, communication equipment, organis ing party meetings, boosting their urban networks and fighting court cases for their jailed comrades.

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JAMMU AND KASHMIR Chief Minister Omar Abdullah has said that the Border Security Force would pay rent to the owners of land from the time it has taken possession for fencing of borders.”BSF will also pay compensation to the owners after acquiring the land and the state administration has finalised an arrangement with BSF in this regard,” Omar said in response to some points raised by some legislators at a meeting of the Jammu District Development Board recently.

Photo courtesy: army jawan - cdn.wn.com

BSF TO PAY LAND-RENT IN J&K

INTERNAL SECURITY

Photo courtesy: www.bharat-rakshak.com- CISF

CALL FOR PARAMILITARY JOBS THE STAFF Selection Commission (SSC) will recruit 4,713 constables from the seven insurgency-affected states of the Northeast for the country’s six central paramilitary forces this year.

The process for recruitment, scheduled to begin in March, will be the biggestever drive in a year in the six forces of the Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB), Central Industrial Security Force (CISF), Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF), Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) and Assam Rifles.

“The Union Ministry of Home Affairs assigned us with the recruitment of 53,200 constables in the current year and we will recruit 4,713 constables from the Northeast. Of them, 3,063 candidates will be only from Assam and the rest will be recruited from Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh. There

will be reservation for the entire Northeast as it is an insurgency-affected region,” N K Raghupathy, the Chairman of the Commission, said recently.

The recruitment process for Assam Rifles and ITBP will be completed by July while the rest will be over

by October 31.”As the entire Northeast is categorised as an insurgency-affected region and shares international borders, candidates from the region can avail triple benefits of reservations for all three categories.

Candidates from the bordering districts of Dhubri, Karimganj, Baksa, Chirang, Kokrajhar and Udalguri can also apply for reservations meant for candidates from the bordering areas. They can also apply online,” Raghupathy said.

He said the Commission had received 11 lakh applications from across the country in 2009-10 for various vacancies but the response from the Northeast was comparatively poor because of low awareness levels.

Photo courtesy: www.kashmirnewz.com- tavor

TAVOR BETTER THAN AK-47

www.geopolitics.in

THE ISRAELI-MADE TAVOR rifle was better than the AK-47 for counter-insurgency operations in Jammu and Kashmir and Naxal-affected areas of the country, a senior Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF )official said recently. TAVOR is lighter than the AK-47 rifle and more effective, he added.

The four-kg TAVOR assault rifle uses 5.56 mm NATO ammunition, originally developed in the United States for use in the M16 rifle. The rifle was first inducted in north Kashmir. The laser-fitted arm enables the personnel of the CRPF to pinpoint their target at a long range during the counter-insurgency operations in the state and other Naxalaffected areas. According to the official, the process of modernisation of the weaponry was an ongoing one in the CRPF so that the force is able to effectively carry out the tasks assigned to it.”We have got this weapon and we are getting some more in near future,” said the senior CRPF officer.

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ARMY SEEKS LEGAL NET THE INDIAN ARMY is believed to have sought legal protection and guidelines for conduct of training in a base that it planned to start in the restive Narayanpur Chhattisgarh district, known as a strong Naxal den.

The state government’s guidelines would equip the Indian Army for countering the Naxals if the rebels attack the training base or army establishment. The area where the base has been proposed is in Abhujmand, a 4000square-km area.

The purpose of the proposed base is only for training and (the Indian Army) will exercise maximum restraint to avoid direct conflict with the Naxalites, according to General Officer Commanding-in-Chief of the Central Command (Lucknow), Lt General V K Ahluwalia. But if such a situation arises that Naxalites attack the Army camp, the Indian Army is preparing ground for the safety of troop and the establishment. “We have sought legal protection and guidelines from the state government and are hopeful that the formalities will be completed soon,” Ahluwalia said.

The legal protection and guidelines from the state government are considered crucial as there are no rules of engagement for the Indian Army to counter the Naxalites, not even in self-defence. Since any move of the Army against rebels could also target the civilians in the forests, the Army officials want to prepare all the covers before starting the base.

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A GENERAL’S HEALING TOUCH IN KASHMIR Over 600 years after Kashmir’s iconic Sultan Zain-ul-Abidin (popularly known as Budshah), left behind his legacy of love and power, Kashmir’s senior-most serving Army General, Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain finds Budshah’s clairvoyant message, “The heart is my weapon” still relevant today and is determined to employ it as his weapon, says RAJ MEHTA

M

ARTIN LUTHER King Jr, the great American civil rights activist, and Adam Kahane, the world-renowned leadership, economic reform, management and communication guru and best-selling author of Power and Love: A Theory and Practice of Social Change (BerrettKoehler, San Francisco, 2010), would be surprised to learn that their theories of the connectivity between power and love have actually been scripted and successfully practiced in India over six hundred years before they www.geopolitics.in

spoke so passionately on the connect between these inextricable parts of human nature.

Adam Kahane opines that the two main ways that people try to solve their toughest group, community and societal problems are fundamentally flawed. They either push for what they want at all costs — in its most extreme form this means war — or try to completely avoid conflict. Kahane argues that each is a reflection of two distinct, fundamental drives: power, the single-minded desire to achieve one’s solitary purpose; and

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love, the drive towards unity. He says that to achieve lasting change, you have to be able to work fluidly with both because, as Martin Luther King succinctly put it, “Power without love is reckless and abusive, and love without power is sentimental and anaemic.”

Kahane argues that love connects and creates openings, potential and opportunity, but power is required for these to be tested and realised. In fact, each has an umbilical need for the other. This is the theory that Sultan Zain-ul-Abidin (Budshah) the powerful yet much loved King who ruled Kashmir March 2011

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g INTERNALSECURITY from 1420 to 1470 created and exploited; using power and love in a manner that Martin Luther King and Kahane would fully approve.

What Budshah brought to the table?

On ascending the throne after a seven-year coming-of-age baptism in Timur’s court at Samarqand, Zain-ul-Abidin found his kingdom in chaos. The administration had broken down. To revive it, he motivated its dispossessed administrators, the Pandits, to return to Kashmir; guaranteeing them religious and civil liberties. He attacked unemployment and poverty by ensuring suitable employment to all eligible persons. According to chronicler Jonaraja, “Though the powerful King was kind-hearted, he would not forgive even his son or minister or a friend if he were guilty.”

He assiduously promoted art, handicrafts, commercial morality and integrity — qualities of which as Mohammad Ashraf, a Kashmir First blogger points out, constitute the backbone of a people’s credit and reputation.

Zain-ul-Abidin led an ethical and blameless life. He venerated holy saints and encouraged the legacy of the Sufi mystics Lalla Arifa (Lal Ded) and Sheikh Noor-ud-din. He also started the langar system for the Amarnath Yatra, and lent succour to his people across religion, during severe famine followed by devastating floods. He cared. Today, if there is one issue on which the otherwise fractious Kashmiri awaam is united, it is their plaintive cry for a Budshah to revive Kashmir’s golden era of power and love.

Mastery in soft skills It would be tasteless as well as an exercise in sycophancy to portray the current Army Chief, Northern Army Commander, or Kashmir’s senior-most serving Army officer, GOC 15 Corps, Lt General Ata Hasnain as a latter day Budshah. This is a position that only the current Chief Minister Omar Abdullah could legitimately aspire to, not the military hierarchy. That said, there is a growing sense of wonderment; increasing approval as well as tacit appreciation of the soft skills that General Hasnain has so elegantly ushered in and is employing in exercise of his charter in the valley. These mind skills are certainly reminiscent of the astonishing ‘people management’ magic of Budshah which the average Kashmiri so cherishes and reveres.

Highly decorated, educated in Ivy League Indian institutions and exposed to elite military establishments abroad after stringent military selection as well as globally travelled, Gen Hasnain is an erudite, reflective www.geopolitics.in

and pedigreed second generation Army officer who is a Kashmir veteran. Seasoned in Kashmiri tehzeeb (culture) as much as he is in the enviable Kashmiri skill of taqreer (debate and discussion), Ata is a riveting speaker, thinker and soldier extraordinaire.

It would, therefore, not be presumptuous to say that, he has, over his almost 40 years of uniformed service, perfected the unique Peter Drucker enunciated soft skill of “hearing what is not being said’. In Kashmir, such intuitive outreach into the hearts and minds of the awaam and intezamia — people and administration — is as rare as it is desirable for someone whose charter is the return of normalcy and the reversion of the Army to its principal task of defending India’s sovereignty against external aggression.

What’s with the General that the reader must know to understand his intellectual and combat underpinnings? Syed Ata Hasnain is the second son of distinguished Major General Syed Mahdi Hasnain. He completed his school education at Sherwood, Nainital, and thereafter did BA (Hons) from St. Stephen’s College, Delhi. He is also an alumnus of the Royal College of Defence Studies, London, and an MA in International Studies from Kings College, University of London.

Gen Ata Hasnain was commissioned from the IMA into 4 Garhwal Rifles, and, like his illustrious father, commanded the same battalion. As a Brigadier, he commanded the elite Uri Brigade on the Line of Control. He later commanded the famous “saviour of Kashmir” 19 (Dagger) Infantry Division in North Kashmir. On promotion as Lt Gen, Ata, a die-hard infantry officer, was selected on merit to command 21 Corps, a mechanised Strike Corps, normally commanded by a highly capable mechanised arm officers. He commanded with great verve and panache.

In December 2010, troops in Kashmir were electrified on hearing that the General, on completion of the tenure of Lt Gen NC Marwah, was being deliberately side-stepped by the Army Chief to command the prestigious 15 Corps in Kashmir; a rare honour indeed.

The ‘like father, like son’, phrase does not appear to be the tired cliché it is, when applied to the dynamic Hasnain duo. Father and son have literally marched on the same roads separated only by time. In 1965, Maj Gen (Retd) SM Hasnain was nominated to attend a one-year course at the prestigious Imperial Defence College, UK. And 41 years later, then Maj Gen Ata Hasnain attended the same course (now termed the Royal College of Defence Studies).

When Maj Gen (Retd) SM Hasnain took

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over 20 Mountain Division, 5 Garhwal Rifles mounted an honour guard for him, much as the same unit did for his son, Maj Gen Ata Hasnain when he took over 19 Infantry Division. It comes as no surprise that the sprightly 92-year-old father is as engaging a raconteur as his son is, and as liberal and accommodating in his thinking and beliefs. “My son is better” judges the proud father. “He has a tougher calling than I did.”

Gen Ata first came to the Valley in 1997, as a Colonel responsible for the conduct of anti-terror operations and developmental activities in the Avantipura-based Victor Force. He was thereafter back as the Uri Brigade commander and, still later, as the Dagger Division commander at Baramula, a frontier town in whose serpentine and deadly old town mohallas, terrorism first manifested itself over two decades ago. He had volunteered for all three postings but his displayed competence led a perceptive, handson Chief to ask him, in his fourth coming, to return to the Valley as his senior-most commander there.

It was in the light of his upbringing as a liberal-minded Muslim, his enviable family values, certainly his very extensive Kashmir experiences and interaction with its awaam across age, gender, religion and occupation, as well as wide reading of the ancient Sufi traditions of Kashmir; its past heroes and their legacy that he has crafted his unique people-friendly theme. His forward-looking thinking at about the time he was settling into his job is both instructive and revealing: “If you have been reading some of my statements in the media, you would have realised that more than ever before (apart from conduct of focused, intelligence led anti-terror operations) this is the time to get into engagement mode; engage with just about everyone... elders, youth, women, children, businessmen, academics, clerics, jamaitees (hard liners) and so many others who make up this fantastic Kashmiri society. It takes away nothing from our intent to remain as aggressive as ever when it comes to eliminating terrorists who are sponsored and have undertaken war against our nation.

The theme I have adopted after much deliberation and in the light of my past field experiences in the Valley, is of employing ‘The Heart as My Weapon’. The heart has so many references in the English language...

‘The Heart is a Lonely Hunter’ and ‘Wearing Your Heart on Your Sleeve’ being just two of them. What I have in mind is, however, far more potent, perceptive and in sync with what the awaam craves for and March 2011

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ENTIRELY HUMANE: Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain believes the Valley’s actual weapon is ‘heart’ and the army man, i.e. reaching out to the people and applies balm on their wounds what the Army has selflessly and quietly been doing these past years...The time has come to focus on Kashmiriat and give a fillip to the Sufi culture of Kashmir. We need to understand the Kashmiri psyche with sympathy and with love and caring and the heart is the best medium to reach out to the awaam even as we carry out the operational part of our charter of reducing if not altogether eliminating terrorism in the Valley. A poem written for me by an Army doctor who earned his spurs in the Valley, expresses the subtext of my heart theme: Ye tumhe kisne kaha tum watan ki jaan nahi Bina tumhare muqqamal ye Hindoostan nahi Koi tumhi se wafa ke sawal kyoon poochchhe Watan parasti toh jazba hai imtehan nahi.

Tumhara haq hai tumhari bhi hissedari hai Ye Bharatvarsh tumhari bhi zimmedari hai Iski mitti me lahu hai tumhare purkhon ka Iski khushboo pe likhkhi dastaan tumhari hai.”

Readers may recall that, as the Uri Brigade commander in 2004, when cross-border firing was at its peak, the officer was directed to conduct a court martial against a Major who was accused of alleged gross misconduct against good order and military discipline in the infamous Handwara mother-daughter rape and molestation case. The officer, Major Rehman Hussain of the Rashtriya Rifles, was found guilty in an “open to public”, transparent and speedily conducted trial by General Courts Martial. He was ordered to be dismissed from the Army. The General has, at all ranks held by him, therefore, shown the courage of his convictions and placed on record adequate proof of his orientation as well as his capacity to ‘walk his talk’ with honour, humility and dignity. This lends substance to his ‘The Heart is my Weapon’ theme.

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in Kashmir for almost two decades, Ata reiterates at his numerous public interactions that his troops will deal with emerging situations in a humane manner. “My approach,” he says, “is entirely humane and nothing more than that. I think my force should not been seen as a force with arms everywhere.

Our main weapon is our heart. And that is the weapon we will carry around in all our efforts to bring stability to the state all over again. I am looking at the long-term perspective as to how the Army can assist the state government in reaching out to the people and putting a balm on the many wounds that may have occurred over a period of time.”

Astute readers will discern that Gen Hasnain, in his thinking and actions, is skillfully reviving Kashmir’s most venerated legacy of heart, of power, of love and of Sufism. As per the learned Sheikh Mukhtar, “Sufis represent the inner side of the Islamic creed, which stresses on self-realisation, righteousness and universal love for all. Sufism had succeeded in inculcating the sentiments of fraternity, equality and equity, coupled with sense of service to humanity, in the followers, irrespective of race, community, caste, creed and colour…. Khwaja Mu’in-u’d-din Chishti, the founder of the Chishti Sufi School in India, advised his followers to develop river-like generosity, sun-like affection and earth-like hospitality. Their principle, as per Mukhtar, was to ‘return hatred with love, violence with affection’. He adds that Sheikh Nizam-ud-din Auliya used to recite the following verse of Sheikh Abu Sa’id Abul Khair as his motto in life: “Whoever causes grief to us, May his life get more and more happiness”.

The worth of Gen Hasnain’s operating philosophy was tested by fire both literally and figuratively in early February 2011.

Regretting the killing of a young man by an Army ambush in Chogal Handwara as a case

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of “mistaken identity”, he said that the Army “had not violated” the Standard Operating Procedure (SOP). Nevertheless, he assured the Chief Minister at a unified Command meeting held shortly thereafter, that the Army’s Rules of Engagement (ROE) would be modified to make them people-friendly.

“I have once again promised and reiterated that the Army will always warn before firing. Unfortunately, there has been some communication gap previously as the message has not gone down for which I take blame,” said the General. That the awaam accepted his word is evident from the fact that there were no follow-up protests after he spoke. Kashmir-watchers have noted in editorial comment that the General’s expression of contrition has taken even cynics and ‘one book wonders’ by surprise.

The Army does not believe in projecting individual personalities over optimal and just execution of its mandate and over synergy of effort. The fact that the General is in complete sync in what he is doing with his erudite Udhampur-headquartered Army Commander, Lt Gen KT Parnaik, himself a Valley veteran, and with his plain speaking, Valley-experienced and pragmatic Chief, Gen VK Singh, is reflected in the happy, stress-free faces of commanders and staff officers in the Valley, Northern Command Headquarters and elsewhere. A change is in the air and it is axiomatic that most of the stake-holders in Kashmir, including the awaam, intezamia and uniformed forces are cautiously optimistic about its outcome.

Gen Ata Hasnain will one day move on and finish his Valley tenure, after having contributed his bit to a legacy that was first utilised for public and state good by the peerless Budshah. He will lay store, however distant it may seem today, in the fervent hope expressed in the very poignant couplet: “Fateha padhne se pehle ae musafir tu bata Masla’ae Kashmir abhi hul hua ya nahin”

(Oh traveller, before you recite the fateha (prayer) on my grave, tell me if the problem of Kashmir has been resolved) — Mohd Riaz Hasan.

(The author is a J & K veteran with three tenures at the ranks of Brigadier to Maj-General in the Valley. He has commanded a Rashtriya Rifles Sector and 19 (Dagger) Infantry Division as well as functioned as Chief of Staff in HQ 15 Corps, Srinagar. Earlier, he served as a Colonel in a Rashtriya Rifles Sector in Doda, J & K. In addition, the officer has had three tenures in the Jammu area in the ranks of Captain (two) and Maj-General) March 2011

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MAOIST MENACE: Proliferation of arms is seen as a key element in derailing the already fragile peace process

NITED STATES boasts of 89 guns for 100 persons in the count of civilian forearm possession. The only South Asian country that makes it to the rather ignominious list is Pakistan with about 12 guns per 100 persons. India fares better with only 4.2 guns per 100 persons.

However, this statistics is hardly a matter of solace as in terms of the actuals, the estimate of the number of privately-held guns in India is 46 million, of which only 5.5 million are registered. The rest are available to the criminals, insurgents as well as anybody interested in possessing one. The impact of the proliferation has been serious for the country and the problem is only growing.

The following is an analysis of the availability of small arms for the insurgent/ extremist groups in the country.

Maoist Arms Naxalites in the 1960s fought oppressive landlords and the Indian state with rudimentary weapons. As a result, clashes with security forces with better arms were onesided and resulted in the near wipeout of the extremists. The Communist Party of IndiaMaoist (CPI-Maoist)’s protracted armed struggle that uses guerrilla warfare as a key strategy, however, has come a long way since those days. Today, Naxalites (left-wing extremists) use the most sophisticated arms and explosives to carry out their strikes.

Naxalites/Maoists for long have claimed that the arms they use are primarily sourced from security forces, though they are known to have received some arms and techniques of assembling IEDs from the LTTE. Andhra Pradesh police sources indicate that in the late 1980s, the People’s War Group (PWG) had reportedly acquired 60 AK-47s and 20 Stenguns from the LTTE. In an interview CPI-Maoist General Secretary Ganapathy said in November 2010, “Our weapons are mainly country-made. All the modern weapons we have are mainly seized from the government armed forces when we attack them. The enemy himself knows that seizure of arms is our main source for getting weapons.”

The country-made weapons Ganapathy

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WANTED: A POLICY TO END SMALL ARMS SMUGGLING

While the flow of illegal arms — used by insurgent outfits in the Northeast as well as Maoists from Myanmar and Thailand — has decreased, thanks to the present Awami League-led Bangladesh government, BIBHU PRASAD ROUTRAY believes that the country must take adequate steps to formulate a policy to end the trafficking of arms

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THREADBARE DISCUSSION: Measures to tackle the challenges posed by terrorism and left wing extremism were core issues for discussion at the Conference of Chief Ministers on Internal Security, held earlier in February referred to are manufactured in several arm manufacturing units the outfit runs in its liberated zones in Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand.

In Tamil Nadu, Maoists had attempted to set up a rocket-launcher-manufacturing centre before it was busted in 2006. In addition, Maoists also procure their weapons from the private criminalised arms manufacturing units in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh.

In the past, raids on state armouries added significantly to the weapons of Maoists. A number of raids were organised in 2006 and 2007, the most notable being the attack on the Nayagarh armoury in Orissa on February 15, 2008, that added almost 300 weapons to the Maoists. While the extremists had looted 1085 weapons, the police was able to recover 764 weapons including 159 burnt ones. In fact, the total ammunition looted numbered about 1, 00,000, and about 53,566 were recovered.

These weapons were distributed to Maoist cadres all over the country, which is evident from the fact that some of these weapons have since been recovered from arrested Maoists in different states.

Raids on police facilities as a method of arms acquisition for the Maoists have become increasingly difficult. Police departments in different states have strengthened the security of the police stations by bringing in design and structural changes and also by deploying more men to stand guard. As a consequence, no raid on a police armoury www.geopolitics.in

has taken place since the Nayagarh attack.

Maoists did try to overrun the NALCO mine in Koraput in April 2009 in search of a huge cache of gelatin explosives meant to be used for blasting the hilltop for mining but the attack was repulsed by the CISF personnel deployed. Maoists, however, managed to loot huge quantities of sophisticated arms and ammunition from the para-military force armoury there.

On several occasions, however, Maoists have managed to inflict heavy casualty on police and para-military personnel and loot the weapons of the dead and injured forces.

In April 2010, for example, Maoists wiped out an entire company of the CRPF in Chhattisgarh and took away the arms from the dead personnel.

Conflict ‘Transformation’ in the Northeast Insurgency in many of the states of the northeastern region has finally demonstrated signs of abatement. For decades, outfits thrived with their external linkages and internal support. Most of these outfits, like many insurgency movements in the world, remained personality-centric. As a result, once Bangladesh started cooperating and handing over insurgent leaders, who were based in that country, to India, the insurgents operating in Assam and Meghalaya ran out of steam. It is Bangladesh’s cooperation, which is behind the initiation of peace talks between a faction of the ULFA and the Government of India. Bangladesh also recently

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handed over the Chief of United National Liberation Front (UNLF), one of the most violent groups in Manipur, to India. Before this, police-led operations in Tripura had neutralised the insurgency movement in Tripura. In addition, there are a host of outfits including the Naga outfits, which have been observing ceasefire and some of them are currently negotiating with the government. A conflict transformation process is underway in the volatile Northeast.

This, however, could be the source of fresh problems for the country. In a bid to bring the violent outfits to the negotiating table at any cost, the government has made no effort to make weapons surrender mandatory. The National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM), since its ceasefire with the government in 1997, has augmented both its cadre strength and weapons holding tremendously. In case of surrendering cadres belonging to outfits based in neighbouring countries, it was argued that insurgents who have been escaping from their hideouts in Bangladesh and Myanmar cannot be expected to carry ‘heavy’ weapons along with them. Also, in many cases, weapons surrendered by some outfits that surrendered en masse were much below the intelligence inputs of their actual weapons holding. All this has created a situation in the region, where armed conflicts are ending without any of the weapons in the possession of the outfits coming to the government. It is virtually unimaginable that March 2011

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these weapons would lie secure and would Basumatary subsequently admitted to have where contraband arms are freely available, not be passed to other outfits that need bought the arms from Bangladesh exclusivethe so-called peaceful areas of the northeast them. ly for the 27th battalion of the ULFA. On like Mizoram and Meghalaya have turned An early indication of this possible trend March 21, 2007, ULFA militant Ratneswar into arms bazaars. was provided on February 12, 2011, when Rabha was shot dead while crossing over Meghalaya for long was on the arms route security forces during a combing operation from Bangladesh near Jengjal in the West between India and Bangladesh and signifiarrested Aditya Bora, a senior ULFA cadre Garo Hills district. Three kilograms of RDX cant amount of small arms and explosives and two of his associates in the Saranda forwas recovered from the killed militant. Howentered the country through the Garo hills est bordering Orissa-Jharkhand. Saranda ever, with the installation of the friendly region from Bangladesh. Among the outfits forest, which includes terriAwami League govtories of both Orissa and ernment in Dhaka, Jharkhand, has been a libthis route has dried erated zone of the CPIup. Even so, the Maoist for the last few Meghalaya capital of years. Explosives, Maoist Shillong and its literature and posters were adjoining areas conseized from these ULFA tinue to gain notoriety cadres, who were in the as a vibrant small area to supply arms and arms bazaar for many explosives to the CPIinsurgent groups.

Maoist cadres.

Country-made Linkages between the revolvers were available for a mere `2500 CPI-Maoist and the north— against the `6500 eastern militants have for a branded revolver developed in the past years.

— from makeshift The CPI-Maoist has signed arm- manufacturing agreements of solidarity units that mushwith a couple of insurgent roomed in areas like outfits operating in Cherrapunjee and Manipur. In these agreeMawsynram in East ments, the signing parties Khasi Hills district. have vowed to collaborate Police busted several and cooperate in extending makeshift arms factothe people’s war. Intelliries but as soon as the gence sources have further police turned their indicated that meetings back, the factories between these groups have sprung up again. It taken place in some foreign was possible to get locations. However, this Chinese-made ‘5-star’ was probably the first occapistols for less than sion when cadres of the `20,000 in Shillong northeastern groups — not too long ago. more importantly belongSimilarly, prevailing to a group from Assam ing peace in Mizoram — were arrested from and the consequent Maoist strongholds. It security force inertia merely confirms the specuprobably facilitated lation that the solidarity the Mizoram and agreements are bound to Myanmar border turn into active collaboraMAOIST ARMOURY: A range of deadly devices are available under one roof for being used as a thrivtions for arms and explopurchase in different states of the country ing small arms route. sives. In time to come, as Arms continue to more and more northeastenter India through areas like Champhai, that participated and benefited from the ern outfits start negotiating with the governSaiha and Zawkathawr and find their way trade were the NSCN-IM and the ULFA. Rare ment, arms in their possession will find their into the war chest of the insurgents. arrests of such militants have provided an way to active outfits, in particular to the CPIinsight into the trade. On January 19, 2007, Maoist.

Troubled Neighbourhood police personnel arrested two ULFA miliUnion Minister of Home Affairs (MHA) P tants from Bhoirymbong area near Umroi ‘Peace’ Zones as Arms Bazaars Chidambaram addressing the annual Chief airport in Shillong and recovered three kiloContrary to the prevalent wisdom that Ministers’ Conference on Internal Security grams of RDX and a 9-mm pistol from them. views active conflict theatres as the areas www.geopolitics.in

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Jammu and Kashmir

on February 1, 2011, identified ‘arms smuggling’ as a ‘consequence’ of India being located in a troubled neighbourhood. While there is little to doubt about the Minister’s claim, India’s counter-measures to tackle the menace remain a problem.

Bangladesh, as mentioned earlier, is fast ceasing to be a direct source of small arms for the northeastern militant groupings. The AL-led government has initiated several steps to stop the country from being a hub for for anti-India activities. High-ranking officials belonging to intelligence units have been arrested and prosecuted for their active participation in incidents like the Chittagong arms haul of April 1, 2004, in which 10 truckloads of arms and ammunition meant for the northeastern insurgents were recovered. The fact, however, remains that in spite of its commitment, Dhaka’s ability to enforce a complete ban on this trade will remain suspect, given its rather limited clout in areas including the Chittagong Hills Tracts, where a bulk of the transactions occur. The demand for small arms from Bangladesh’s own criminal networks will continue and a fraction of the arms delivered at places like Chittagong port will eventually find their way into India.

It is in New Delhi’s interest that the hands of the India-friendly AL government are strengthened and its writ extended to the ungoverned spaces. In the event of a return www.geopolitics.in

of the hostile Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) to power in future, the strategic advantage accrued so far, will be lost.

China stopped supporting the Northeastern insurgent outfits sometime in the mid1990s. The ULFA’s appeal for a free passage through China during the December 2003 military operations in Bhutan did not elicit a response from the Chinese authorities. Even so, China continues to remain a source of small arms for insurgent groups in India.

According to available information, in 2006 and 2007, security agencies seized nearly 4,000 small arms and light weapons in the Northeast and Jammu and Kashmir and nearly half of these were made in China. In 2008, an independent report verified that China had replaced Cambodia and Thailand as the main supplier of weapons to insurgent groups in India’s Northeast and Myanmar.

Elaborating on the lucrative trade, the report had also said that a Chinese automatic rifle that was available for $500 in eastern Myanmar could command a price of $2,500 by the time it reached the Northeast. Indian intelligence agencies apparently do not have any evidence of the involvement of official agencies of China in the arms deals, although inputs have periodically thrown up names of retired PLA officials. In fact, the NSCN-IM till very recently, had stationed an arms procurer in Dhaka, who shuttled between Thailand

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and Philippines, meeting his Chinese contact in search for arms and explosives.

The arms route from China invariably passes through Myanmar and involves Myanmarese insurgents and also officials. A number of Northeastern insurgent camps are located within Myanmar and these serve as the first unloading points from the arms cache, before being brought into the country. In the past, the Myanmarese army has carried out operations against the insurgents, without any permanent impact on the ground. The Indo-Myanmar strategic cooperation of recent times is yet to translate into joint operations against the insurgents. In addition to the inability of the Myanmarese army to take action, the porous border remains a serious problem. Assam Rifles, the main border guarding force along the IndoMyanmar border, is clearly short of personnel and has located itself about 40 kilometres away from the actual border. Though the Assam Rifles is raising an additional 26 battalions, it is unclear whether this additional manpower will plug the smuggling routes.

Indigenous Production There is a tendency among analysts to play down the capacity of the hundreds of private arm-manufacturing units that have mushroomed all over the country to serve the militants and the insurgents. These units, often located in one-room facilities, are believed to produce only crude weapons, unfit for the use of insurgents. However, over the years, tremendous improvements have been noted in the quality of arms produced from such facilities. Earlier, Ahmedabad and now, Mumbai has emerged as a hub for purchase of indigenously produced arms in different states. Inputs suggest that a range of weapons including country-made revolvers and sophisticated replica of AK rifles are available with prices ranging from `5000 to `50,000. With an advance payment and waiting time of a month, even the rarest and most expensive guns like the Austrian Glock pistol and the Uzi submachine gun are also available.

Meeting the challenge calls for concerted action, both in terms of plugging the smuggling routes and also controlling the internal trade. However, any such action can only stem from a policy, which is non-existent.

(The author has served as a Deputy Director at the National Security Council Secretariat, New Delhi, and is currently, a Visiting Research Fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Singapore) March 2011

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JOINT COMMAND India and China can be partners, but.....

WHY PAKISTAN’S NUCLEAR ARMS SHOULD CONCERN INDIA?

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PAKISTAN’S GROWING NUCLEAR ARSENAL T With the fast tracking of the fourth military reactor at the Khushab, Pakistan has only confirmed that it is moving full steam ahead with its nuclear programme. Given our neighbour’s proliferation track record RAJIV NAYAN argues that the worrisome accumulation of fissile material isn’t good news for the sub-continent or the world at large

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ERRORISM IN nuclear Pakistan is frightening the world. The international community by and large has already concluded that the first global nuclear terrorism will find material and technical support in Pakistan. In this context, the most worrisome development is the growing Pakistani stockpile of nuclear weapons and fissile materials. All the major international studies on Pakistani nuclear weapons have concluded that Pakistan is accumulating nuclear arsenals through two different routes: one is the Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) route and the second, plutonium route.

Last month( February 9), Washingtonbased Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) released an imagery brief, which informed that ‘Pakistan appears to be building a fourth military reactor at the Khushab nuclear site’. The objective of setting-up of the fourth Khushab reactor apparently is to produce more plutonium for Pakistan’s nuclear bomb. The ISIS analysis is that the fourth reactor building is in the early stage of construction. It appears that the shape and size of the fourth reactor resemble those of the second and third reactors.

The report further informs:

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“The arrangement of other buildings relative to the building footprint is also consistent with the arrangement of buildings next to the third reactor as seen when it was under construction.

A new construction staging and storage area can be seen south of the new construction.

The new construction is located several hundred metres south of second and third Khushab reactor compound.”

In 1976, in India, for the first time indication towards the making of Pakistani nuclear arsenals was received. Initially, the Pakistani establishment wanted to take

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the plutonium route. It seems Pakistan faced problems in procuring plutonium as well as other required systems and subsystems to manufacture a nuclear device. Pakistan was, and to a great extent still is, dependent on China for development of its nuclear weapons acquisition.

Quite truly, Pakistani nuclear weapons are a conservatory of the Chinese nuclear weapons.

Through the famous A Q Khan’s activities and the network which operated with full complicity and knowledge of the Pakistani state, Pakistan was able to get lots of technology and materials to manufacture nuclear device through the HEU route. A Q Khan who is apparently fast becoming a national political figure stole enrichment technology from the Netherlands. He was an employee of one of the nuclear facilities of the Netherlands.

Quite interestingly, one of the former prime minis-

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ters of Netherlands, Mr Rud Lubbers, in his writings and public speeches have been highlighting that the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the United States (US) government both were aware of what AQ Khan did in the Netherlands, but did not act citing different reasons, the primary being the sovereign issue. However, Lubbers did not highlight that Pakistan very efficiently sold its indispensability for US in its operation in Afghanistan. This US operation, in which Pakistan very deftly outmanoeuvred and misled the US, helped breeding of Taliban and al-Qaeda elements subsequently. For sure, the US has not learnt any lessons even now.

Did Pakistan use the technology and blueprint stolen from the Netherlands to manufacture HEU? Opinion is divided. Pakistan circulated the items in the network.

Some view that technology and blueprint from the Netherlands was tested and used elsewhere. China apparently used this technology to refine its own programme, though it cannot be said with certainty how much useful it was for China, which already had an advanced enrichment programme. However, other countries may have been benefited. One of the reports suggested that Pakistan swapped the items with Iran for ten years of defence budget.

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Pakistan may have used the item for its own weapon development purpose. Kahuta plant enriched weapons grade uranium for Pakistan after initial problems. Pakistan procured HEU for 30-40 weapons. It is believed that the international pressure made it difficult for Pakistan to procure spare parts and other components from grey and black market to run the enrichment plant at Kahuta. However, this difficulty should not suggest that the nuclear network, which helped Pakistan’s nuclear weapons development, has stopped functioning. It is merely facing difficulties in its smooth running.

Pakistan is believed to have this plant shut down. But on this issue, too, differences of opinion exist. A predominant and highly informed section of the Indian strategic community believes that Kahuta is still running, and producing HEU for Pakistan nuclear weapons. However, it admits that the amount of HEU production is quite less.

It is analysed that currently, Pakistan does not have capability to undertake large-scale production of HEU. Time and again, the new plant Golra is mentioned.

The Golra plant is situated near Islamabad--the capital of Pakistan. There is belief that its size and capability are greater than that of Kahuta. It is unsafeguarded enrichment facility. Some of the writings on it indicated that it has thousands of centrifuges to increase the production of HEU for the Pakistani bomb. But another and quite authoritative source of information reveals that the Golra plant is basically a rotor-manufacturing enrichment plant. It has nothing to do with enrichment of uranium for bomb. Thus, it points out that currently, Pakistan is not able to enrich much uranium for producing nuclear weapons.

Reports are coming about the Chinese supply of 50 kg of HEU way back in 1982.

And quite interestingly, this information has approval of none other than A Q Khan himself. China also supplied several other items such as magnet rings, uranium hexafluoride and drawings of nuclear warhead to Pakistan. It seems the assistance to run enrichment facilities did not materialise despite the Chinese active but covert assistance.

Several reports suggest that Pakistan’s current indigenous capability may not sustain its fast-paced nuclear weapons development. Some may argue that it is difficult to procure HEU from the proliferation network which is either not working or facing difficulties. As discussed, the network has not stopped working; it is merely facing some pressure and as a result, some difficulties.

March 2011

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PAKISTANI NUCLEAR FACILITIES Kahuta (Khan Research Laboratory): Largescale uranium enrichment centrifuge plant producing weapons-grade uranium for nuclear devices, not subject to safeguards.

UZBEKISTAN

TURKMENISTAN

Laboratory and pilot-scale plants for plutonium extraction, not subject to safeguard; PARR 1 & 2 research reactors, subjects to safeguards.

Possible uranium enrichment R&D facility/pilot plant; not subject to safeguards.

AFGHANISTAN

Wah

Sihala Rawalpindi Khushab

Isa Khel Chasma

Multan

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PAKISTAN Chinese-supplied light-water, 325 MWe nuclear power reactor, subject to safeguard; additional 310MWe reactor planned; large plutonium extraction plant not subject to safeguard, operational status unknown.

Karachi

Dera Chazi Khan

Laboratory and pilot-scale plants for plutonium extraction, not subject to safeguard; PARR 1 & 2 research reactors, subjects to safeguards.

M - 11 storage facility

INDIA Heavy-water, 50 MWt plutonium production reactor, not subject to safeguards; tritium production facility, not subject to safeguards; Along with plutonium extraction plant at Chasma and pilot-scale plant at Rawalpindi, the Khushab reactor could be a source op plutonium for nuclear weapons.

may be completed.

Belgian-supplied heavywater reactor, not subAccording to the Internaject to safeguards.

Canadian-supplied tional Panel on Fissile MateKANUPP heavy-water power reactor; subject rials, “It [Pakistan] may have to safeguards. produced 0.06-0.13 tons of weapon-grade plutonium Italicized names represent Arabian Sea nuclear-related sites. from its Khushab-I reactor, See table 12.1 assuming a reactor power of 40-50 MWth and an average Indian strategic community believes that capacity factor of 50 - 80 per cent. The Pakistan has a plan for thermonuclear second production reactor has been comdevice and miniaturisation of its warheads. pleted at Khushab and may have started Another important reason for the revival operation in late 2009 or early 2010. A third of the plutonium route is the continuing production reactor is nearing completion. shortage of uranium in general and the Based on the number and sizes of their bomb-grade enriched uranium in particumechanical cooling towers, all three reaclar. The mine of Dera Ghazi Khan has been tors appear to be of similar power.” closed down and other uranium mines are The two-track approach to the Pakistani in the jehadi area. Some prominent Indian nuclear weapons development programme imagary analysts speculate that the has not puzzled those who are following upcoming nuclear facility in the Khushab the nuclear weapon programme of the complex is not the fourth reactor but a country. According to a report in the Bulreprocessing complex. In Chasma complex, letin of Atomic Scientists, “In particular, the too, satellites have detected building-up of new facilities provide the Pakistani military capacity, which may be used for reprocesswith several options: fabricating weapons ing purposes. Basically, Pakistan has that use plutonium cores; mixing plutonistepped up its efforts to procure fissile um with HEU to make composite cores; materials to beat the deadline of impendand/or using tritium to ‘boost’ warheads’ ing Fissile Materials Cut-Off Treaty (FMCT). yield (loading the reactors’ targets with The real purpose of blocking negotiations lithium 6 will produce tritium).” Although of an FMCT is procurement of more fissile the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists is not conmaterials through all the possible routes. fident to consider that Pakistan is looking The linkage of FMCT to India-US nuclear for the plutonium route for thermonuclear deal is another Pakistani deception. device, yet a predominant section of the

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March 2011

Photo courtesy: carnegieendowment.org

However, in the light of increasing pressure, it could be prudent for the Pakistani establishment to procure readymade materials instead of items and equipment to produce such materials. It solves the problem of constantly confronting the supply of spare parts for running the enrichment plant.

Pakistan has revived its plutonium route to feed its nuclear weapons stockpile. It has already got an operational Khushab reactor supposedly being used to produce plutonium for Pakistani nuclear weapons.

Although the work on the Khushab reactor started earlier, it became operational in 1998. Some imagery briefs and other intelligence estimates inform that Pakistan started developing second reactor at Khushab sometime during 2000-2002.

These analyses also inform that the preparatory work for construction of the third reactor at Kahuta was spotted in 2006.

The first Khushab reactor has the capacity of 40 MWth. The ISIS, in its analysis, finds that the second reactor at Khushab has been completed, and it is passing through the trial phase. Based on satellite imagery indicating emission of vapor from the second reactor, the ISIS report concludes that the plant is at least at some stage of initial operation. Initially, it judged that the second reactor had the capacity of 1000MWth, but later, it revised its initial estimate. It also judges that the third reactor is also progressing very fast, and soon

Kahuta

Tarwanah

Sargodha Lahore

Ras Koh

ENLARGED BASE: Pakistan appears to be increasing its production of nuclear materials with the construction of the fourth reactor at its Khushab nuclear site

Golra

Islamabad

1998 nuclear test sites.

IRAN

Kashmir (disputed)

Possible nuclear weapons assembly site.

Missile production facility.

Kharan Desert

CHINA

TAJIKISTAN

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STAGNATING OR INCREASING ?

ARSENAL ROUTE: Pakistan is accumulating nuclear arsenals through two different routes and one of them is plutonium route The Indian analysts are even skeptical of the third reactor at the Khushab complex.

They view that the third reactor should also be a reprocessing plant. However, after the coming-up of the news of the fourth facility at the complex, a view is emerging that either of the two should be a reprocessing plant. The Pakistan Institute of Nuclear Science and Technology (PINSTECH) has already established new labs/facilities for plutonium separation.

But the Indian analysts argue that the Pakistani establishment would not find it safe to locate reprocessing plants away from reactors, which may feed materials for plutonium separation.

Moreover, analysts disagree on the capacity of the emerging facilities at Khushab. It is believed that the Khushab 2 and 3 should not have the capability more than 50-100 MWth. It is believed that even Khushab 1 never functioned to its full capacity. The uranium shortage and other technical problems made it run even onethird of its capacity. The persisting problem even in plutonium production has failed to reduce the Pakistani dependence on China for fissile materials supply. More startlingly, it is detected that all the entire Chasma www.geopolitics.in

PAKISTAN IS PROCURING SOLID AND LIQUID-FUEL MISSILES FROM CHINA AND NORTH KOREA series is a façade to supply engineering goods and spare parts to Khushab plants.

Pakistan is procuring solid and liquidfuel missiles from China and North Korea.

Tests of a number of ballistic have been coming for more than a couple of decades.

The test fires of these missiles never evoked credibility; all knew the exercise was merely conducted to gain legitimacy. Pakistan dumped some of the tested missiles when it was able to get better missiles.

The growing Pakistani nuclear stockpile is going to create a highly dangerous and complex scenario for global security. The

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IS PAKISTAN’S nuclear arsenal is stagnating, not increasing? In 1999, the US Defence Intelligence Agency had projected that by 2020, Pakistan would acquire 60-80 nuclear warheads. Now, at the governmental level, too, the estimate about the Pakistani nuclear weapons stockpile has been revised.

The current estimate put the number around 100 nuclear weapons. At the non-governmental level, the same alarming number is coming. The International Panel on Fissile Materials, in the 2010 version of its annual assessment, puts the size of Pakistani arsenals near 90. The panel maintains that in 2010, Pakistan possessed 2.6 tonnes of HEU. According to the estimate, Pakistan produced 2.7 tonnes, but its 1998 tests consumed 0.1 tonne of HEU. SIPRI has also got similar figure.

Other estimates have also been putting the arsenal around this size. That Pakistan has 110 warheads has found support from even David Albright, who started the project of estimating undeclared fissile materials and nuclear weapons. However, for past many years, he stopped bringing out the annual assessments. A couple of other reports calculate that Pakistan has either developed 200 warheads or has materials to manufacture 150-200 warheads.

The reality is that the Pakistani arsenal is increasing, but not through the indigenously produced Pakistani fissile materials. The common understanding is that Pakistan is continuously getting fissile materials from China.

US and its allies should stop envisioning it in terms of India-Pakistan or South Asia paradigm. On the one hand, the Pakistani stockpile may shift its target to Western countries under a possible radical political regime elected or supported by the radicalised Pakistani society. On the other, ignoring the refined proliferation network involving Pakistan, China and North Korea may have its own perils for the US and its allies, especially Japan.

(The author is Senior Research Associate at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi ) March 2011

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UNDER PRESSURE: Mexican police forces trying hard to contain violence

FIGHTING ORGANISED CRIME: MEXICAN LESSONS In a federal system such as ours, police reforms constitute a Herculean task as law and order fall under the jurisdiction of the states. But when the central government attempts a more proactive role, bookish duplication of policing responsibilities has emerged a problem area as has been the case with Mexico. WALTER MCKAY explains how and why Mexico struggles to contain crime

T

O ANYONE with even a partial knowledge of the situation in Mexico, government forces fighting organised crime are failing miserably. Even with the involvement of one of Mexico's most-respected, well-trained and well-equipped organisations, the Mexican military, the statistics point to failure and the media contains weekly stories of the disenchantment of the people with the drug war effort. There are continuous reports of the

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various criminal organisations throughout Mexico employing sophisticated tactics and coordination, such as blockading roads of major cities like Monterrey in the state of Nuevo Le贸n or the city of Morelia in Micho谩can, that effectively prevent the army from interfering in gun-battles, kidnappings or coming to the assistance of the town's beleaguered police forces.

These criminal organisations operate with almost complete impunity, unhampered

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whatsoever by the government's law-enforcement efforts. In the last four years, from December 2006 to December 2010, over 32,000 men, women and children have been killed in relation to drug trafficking violence that has stricken Mexico.

Mexico is a country of approximately 112 million people of which 13 per cent are indigenous (who speak 62 different languages) making it the eleventh most populous. With a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of $1.5 trillion March 2011

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g DIPLOMACY Mexico has the eleventh-largest economy in the world and is the 15th largest country by landmass. The government comprises a President who wields considerable power, a Senate with 128 senators, four representatives from each of the 32 states, and a Chamber of Deputies which consists of 500 members.

The federal system in Mexico, as it relates to the police, comprises three levels of police: a national force, 32 State forces and over 2000 local municipal police forces. The national police force or Policía Federal is a recent creation from the merging of other federal police agencies three years ago, the Federal Preventive Police, the Federal Investigative police (AFI) and the Federal Highway police. All three of these former agencies where considered to be corrupt and the plan was to purge them of the corrupt elements and combine the remaining members into a single agency, which is what exists today.

The following facts concerning policing in Mexico are noteworthy.

Composition of Police forces. As of January 21, 2010, there are over 423,000 police officers in Mexico with 36,655 federal police officers; 225,392 state police officers; and 160,967 municipal police officers. Both the federal and state police forces are divided into two divisions: the Preventative Police, who have little to investigative capacity and are the visible, uniformed police officers seen patrolling the streets as a deterrent and “first responder” capacity, and; the Investigative Police who do not wear a uniform and perform a detective function, investigating crime.

The federal police are responsible for enforcing federal laws such as drugs and organised crime while the state police are responsible for enforcing state laws such as robbery, kidnapping, extortion and homicide (the municipal police have no investigative capacity whatsoever, they perform the same function as the Preventative Police). Finally, it is the municipal police officers who arguably have the closest connection to their community compared to the other two agencies, and who, for the most part, are exposed to the crimes that occur under federal and state law but lack the capacity to investigate.

receive under 10,000 pesos per month ($800).

This low wage allows for the police officers to be more vulnerable to corruption, in a systemic fashion. For example, in Mexico City an average middle-class family of four needs approximately 20,000 pesos per month to survive but the police officers in the city only earn between 4,000 to 8,000 pesos per month.

Education. Over 32 per cent of police officers have less than a grade six education while 25 per cent only have high-school education and 4.5 per cent a university degree. Nearly 2 per cent of police officers in Mexico are functionally illiterate.

Many realise that the police agencies in Mexico are in dire need of assistance. The lack of adequate funding, proper equipment, training and wages contributes to corruption and the poor quality of recruits which has created a profession unable to fulfil its mandate to serve and protect its citizenry. The range of problems that afflict policing in Mexico are almost overwhelming and a common response is not what to do, but rather, where to start? It seems that everything needs to be fixed and to be fixed immediately.

Further, the escalating violence, from President Felipe Calderón's initiative in December of 2006 to use the military to combat the growing power of the various Drug Trafficking Organisations, has placed enormous pressure on the debilitated police forces to act. There have been, and continue to be, numerous police reform efforts throughout Mexico, each working separately from the other, and most agencies are unaware of what others are doing to improve policing. After many years, the results of this disjointed training, expert-

ise and enormous investment of money in policing have been extremely disappointing and is evident in the government's failing efforts to confront organised crime.

Part of the failure is a result of the federal system of government which allows for too much power at the local level where the majority of the police forces operate. Local concerns and political issues outweigh national concerns about organised crime and its threat to society unless of course that particular community is adversely affected. But another aspect of the failure of the government to successfully challenge organised crime is the fractured police system in Mexico, based on the federal model.

The federal police has, as its mandate, the task of enforcing the “fuero federal” or federal laws which covers such areas as organised crime, kidnapping and the drug laws while the state police agencies are responsible for investigating “fuero común” crimes, which encompass all other non-federal laws such as homicide or robbery while the municipal police do not have investigative capabilities and serve only as Preventative Police, leaving all investigations to either the state or federal police.

The unfortunate result of such divisions of labour is that a member of a drug trafficking organisation can commit a robbery in a small community for which the local municipal police officer cannot arrest for lack of authority (unless the crime is actually observed by the police officer), a state police officer who refuses to investigate because it involves organised crime (which is a federal jurisdiction) and a federal police officer not investigating because the actual crime that was committed, robbery, is a state responsibility.

Salary. Nearly 61 per cent of police officers in Mexico receive a salary of 4000 pesos or less each month ($320.00) and nearly 21 per cent receive 1000 pesos or less per month ($80.00), 99.3 per cent of all police officers in Mexico

TOGETHER WE ARE ONE: Police coordinating to fight the organised crime

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WORRISOME: Drug trafficking has painted a negative picture of the country These three levels of denial are reflected in the national statistics that reveal only 1.5 per cent of all crimes committed in Mexico result in punishment. Thus, under this federal system, while it is the federal police who are legally charged with combating organised crime (now with assistance from the military), it is the state and municipal police who bear the brunt of organised crime activities such as car thefts, extortion and home invasions and suffer the majority of deaths, of which nearly 80 per cent of all police officers killed by Drug Trafficking Organisations are state or municipal police officers. For example, of the 2076 police officers killed under the Calderón administration, 915 (44 per cent) are municipal police officers; 698 (34 per cent) are state police officers; and 463 (22 per cent) are federal police officers.

Hence, local communities suffer the consequences of extortion, robberies, intimidation, theft and other crimes against the person related to organised crime but the federal police are not responsible for the investigation while the state police investigate the crimes individually they cannot investigate the roots that lead to the criminal organisations. And, lastly, the police forces who are closest to the communities, the municipal police officers are the ones who know who is who and what is occurring on a daily basis but cannot investigate and suffer from poor moral, lack of training, equipment and such low pay that they need second jobs or take bribes just to survive.

It is within this jurisdictional grey area that allows the drug trafficking organisations to operate with near impunity. www.geopolitics.in

Meanwhile, the majority of the training efforts, new equipment and logistical support (for example, Plataforma México) is poured into the federal police who are increasingly taking on a more militarised role to actively combat organised crime. The result of this is that, when President Calderón commits more troops and federal police officers to a city such as Juárez, he lacks the support and assistance of the local police forces and thus severs a crucial source of information and assistance in his efforts.

In addition to this, the federal and/or state governments are hesitant to provide money or resources to municipalities because of their fear that local politicians will use the money for other purposes and/or take the equipment for their own use, as was the case in Querétaro when the Querétaro State Police provided computers to local municipal police forces so that they had the technological means to share intelligence information state-wide. In some municipalities this effort was stymied when the commanding officer of the local force took the computer home for his own personal use (with no repercussions).

In general, there is a hierarchy of abilities and corruption-with the federal police enjoying the most money, equipment, support and training, the state police less so and the municipal police as the lowest paid, least trained and most corrupt. Thus, the argument made by proponents of a single state agency over multiple agencies is that it is more efficient and effective in terms of trying to eliminate corruption, raise standards and to provide a more uniform service to the people.

But, even though the federal government argues that combining municipal police with state police would result in better training, equipment and money, there is resistance at the local level with mayors suspicious that they will not have input in policing decisions for their communities if there is only a single state agency. Further, they are also worried that resources (both money and personnel) would be directed at state issues rather than local concerns such that local needs and problems will be ignored. In addition, some mayors argue that the difficulties that the municipal police face is mainly due to deliberate underfunding by the federal government and that if the funding that is being directed at merging the local and state police was instead directed to the municipalities, the majority of the concerns cited would be resolved or eliminated.

Finally, there is the issue of power and political control, a constant tug-of-war between the three levels of government.

Under the federal system of government, the

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municipal mayors enjoy a great deal of autonomy and many run their localities as fiefdoms with the police force a key part of this power structure. They fear that moving the police command to the state level removes one of the levers of power that the mayors enjoy. At the state level, the state governors also enjoy a high level of autonomy over the affairs of the state and who see that, in addition to the influx of more federal money and resources, a single state police force will increase their political power.

In sum, one of the obstacles to an effective strategy against organised crime is the lack of coordination of the various efforts in training and equipping Mexican police forces to address the challenges that organised crime presents to their respective communities.

Small police agencies are jostling with larger agencies, local agencies against state agencies and state agencies against the federal agency for money, equipment and training.

As we can see, Mexico is an illustration of the pitfalls of federalism as it applies to policing, with the states and municipalities employing corrupt and poorly trained police agencies but distrustful of the motives of the federal government of any changes and unwilling to relinquish any of their power while the federal government is powerless to enact needed changes at the local levels and not willing to provide needed funding for improvement.

However, despite the many concerns and objections to a single, national police agency, in terms of meaningful police reform and enhanced capacity to combat organised crime, it appears that this is the most-efficient and effective way to achieve results. A single agency would provide for standardised training and equipment for all regions of the country with each locality having access to a centralised intelligence capacity, better communication, coordination and cooperation, all important elements when confronting the formidable resources of the various drug trafficking organisations in Mexico.

If this is not possible, then the next best model is the “Mando Único” or the merging of the municipal police forces with the state police agencies that is proposed by the Calderón government. This model reduces duplication of services, creates efficiency and, with the availability of federal funding, will enable for better training, equipment and coordination against the powerful drug trafficking organisations that currently operate with impunity in Mexico.

(The author is Police Reform Specialist with Mexico-based thinktank, Insyde Ideas) March 2011

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TURNING CHALLENGES INTO OPPORTUNITIES If China shows due respect to India’s sensitivities on its vital interests, together they can play a decisive and constructive role in the 21st century global politics, argues NIRUPAMA RAO

W

HEN YOU look at the challenges between the two countries (India and China) that confront us, we also see opportunities. As our Prime Minister said, “You have an image before you of India and China continuing to grow very fast simultaneously and our policies will have to cater to these emerging realities of the rise of these two countries, just of the two countries themselves.”

For us, the situation is definitely complex since China is our largest neighbour and also because China is today a major power in the world, both from the traditional geopolitical point of view as well as the more current geo-economic point of view.

In the world of today, China is a factor in several equations and, therefore, it is intellectually satisfying, once again — let me come back to the subject of scholarship, to look more closely at all facets of China.

As a nation we, therefore, believe we would like to encourage more efforts to accelerate an intellectual drive to understand China better. In fact, when Premier Wen Jiabao came, one of the announcements that is reflected in the joint statement, issued at the end of that visit, is that Mandarin Chinese will be taught as a

TO UPGRADE RELATIONSHIP: President Pratibha Patil’s visit to China was a good time to deepen bilateral understanding and cooperation between the two countries. Seen in the picture are President Pratibha Patil with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao

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March 2011

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g DIPLOMACY subject in our schools from middle school onwards, commencing with this year. So, this is a reflection of the interest that Indians take in China today and the desire to understand China more comprehensively and more profoundly.

Now we all know China’s rapid economic growth over the last three decades has been spectacular and riveting. It is now the second largest economy in the world with a huge GDP of roughly $5.5 trillion and its youth, particularly, among its people seem focused on improving their living standards in the quest for a more prosperous future and certainly politics does not seem to define their everyday if you look at the contrast between India and China.

China has, of course, begun to deal in the currency of global power and its economic success is impacting its foreign defence and security policies. Now the appellation of

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assertiveness is frequently applied to China’s global profile today. The question that I’m always asked is whether our relationship with China will be one dominated by increasing competition for influence and for resources as our economic needs also grow. But I really believe that neither of us have a luxury of seeing each other in purely antagonistic terms. The view that India and China are rivals to me is a over generalisation as well as an over simplification of a complex relationship which encompasses so many diverse issues.

I believe that the proposition of competition and rivalries should not be exaggerated in a manner that it over shadows our genuine attempts to manage and transact a rationally determined relationship between India and China. The reality is that both our countries have worked hard over the last two decades to enhance dialogue in a number of fields and we must maintain and build on that trend. At the same time, it is true that divergences persist, and that there is no denying the fact that we have a disputed border. There are legacies as well as lessons bequeathed to us by history.

The boundary question is a complex problem. The cartographies that define national identity are internalised in the minds of people of both countries. At the same time, we are making a serious attempt to arrive at a fair, reasonable and mutually acceptable solution of the boundary question as the recent fourteenth round of talks of the special representatives, appointed by both governments, will testify.

The absence of a solution to the question is not due to lack of effort; instead it arises from the difficulty of the question itself, as any analyst in the audience would surely appreciate. What also needs to be appreciated is that the India-China boundary is, one of the most peaceful of all borders. We have in place an organised set of measures or what we call the confidencebuilding measures, or CBMs, to ensure peace or tranquility in the border areas. We are currently talking to each other on establishing more such mechanisms. I believe there is maturity on both sides to understand the complexity of the issue and to insulate it from affecting our boarder relationship. I believe this policy has paid dividends and has contributed towards reducing the possibility of conflict.

I would like to delve briefly on defense exchanges between India and China because when you talk about the boundary question, you also dwell on the role of what

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the respective defense establishments would be. We have had defence exchanges between India and China, including small scale anti-terrorism related military exercises. At present, our high-level military exchanges are on hold and I do not know how many of you are following this debate in the media, of late, but some differences have arisen over the fact that China recently did not accept an army delegation from our northern command. The northern command covers Jammu and Kashmir and the Chinese said that they would not be in a position to accept that delegation which was a point of view that we did not agree with. So consequent upon that, defence exchanges have not moved forward because there has been a certain trough that has been created by this. But, all the same, flag meetings of border personnel along the line of actual control have continued. So, the situation in the border areas remains tranquil.

So, when it comes to defence exchanges I believe it would be right for me to say that there is desire to slowly expand these exchanges that there have been limits to this process. And, I think that a question here again which is debated quite often these days is about the role of the Peoples Liberation Army. Is it more assertive than before? What is the contribution it makes to the formation of foreign policy vis-à-vis China’s neighbours? I think this is a subject we can talk about at length but if I were to dwell on it for longer my speech would be too extended.

Talking about brighter spots in our relationship I would look at the economic interaction or commercial interaction. China as you know is now India’s largest trading partner. Trade was $61.7 billion at the end of last year, 2010. There is an imbalance in trade, however, our exports were $20.8 billion to China while our imports from China were $40.9 billion. So the trade deficit is a worrying. Given the composition of our trade, we export a lot of raw materials and raw commodities to China and China exports a lot of finished goods, machinery and huge infrastructure related machinery to India.

We would like to sell more value-added products to China including pharmaceuticals and computer software. However, the Chinese Government, in our view, will have to dismantle non-tariff barriers to such trade and provide us greater market access.

Challenges in the medium term include attracting Chinese companies to invest in and manufacture from India. This will proMarch 2011

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HIGH-LEVEL INTERACTION: (L-R) Ambassador of India Dr S Jaishankar, Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao, External Affairs Minister S M Krishna with the Foreign Minister of China Yang Jiechi at Wuhan vide jobs and this is a huge thing in India as it is in the United States. I think this would be a good move for the Chinese to make in order to address some of the misgivings we have as far as the imbalance in the business and commercial relationship is concerned.

We would like to see greater Chinese participation in building infrastructure in India including financing of such projects.

Similarly, science and technology exchanges are not very vibrant and both sides again have much to learn from each other. There is potential for the future, here I would just like to dwell on something that would be of interest. When Premier Wen Jiabao was in India last December, he met with a section of media and academic and cultural personalities on how to improve perceptions of Indians and Chinese about each other. You see there is also an information and perceptional gap between the two countries. When you talk to the average Chinese, they do not know very much about India and the idea of Indian democracy and the seeming chaos that they assowww.geopolitics.in

ciate with Indian democracy seems very foreign to the Chinese mind and that, I think, comes from a lack of understanding of the way these processes work and a distance in terms of really seeing India up and close, visiting India more often and trying to engage with Indian society.

I think there is a gulf to be bridged there and I think this is what Premier Wen set out to do when he met with a cross-section of these people. One of the ideas that came out from that meeting was that we should really be looking at more interaction between the two countries in innovation in technology and scientific exchanges which we are not doing very much at the moment.

For instance, India and Japan cooperate now a great deal in this area. Not just in infrastructure creation but also between scientific and academic institutions. Japan is setting up a new IIT in India in Hyderabad. So there is a lot of interaction that goes on with many of our other partners.

With China that has not yet taken off.

Similarly, people-to-people exchanges

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are not very sizeable at present and we should expand these contacts. Tourism from China is still very small. However, there are 7000 Indian students studying in China today and most of them study medicine.

What’s interesting is, apart from the fact that they are studying western medicine in China, they are located all over China and they come from every part of India. It is not that they come from the big cities of Delhi, Mumbai or Chennai or Calcutta. They come from the small district towns, small provincial areas and they are in the heartland of China, right in the interior studying and spending four to five years there. So, there is a whole new generation of Indians being exposed to China in that way.

Similarly, there are a number of Chinese students in India but nowhere near the numbers that we have in China. As I mentioned we’ve also introduced Chinese as a foreign language for study in our schools and we want to prepare our younger generation for this new relationship that we are building with China.

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g DIPLOMACY Similarly, in the global area in organisations such as the Brazil, Russia, India, China, BRIC forum, which will soon be expanded to include South Africa when the BRIC countries meet in China two months from now, and also in the BASIC group, the field of environment in the Conference of Parties on the environment, China and India have been cooperating very closely as also in the G-20 where we are both important member countries that discuss and influence reform of international financial institutions.

So, here again, multilaterally the scope for cooperation has broadened and deepened and at the leadership level, it may or may not come as a surprise to you that our leaders have been meeting very frequently.

In fact, Prime Minister met Mr Hu Jintao 12 times between 2005 and 2010 and he met Premier Wen Jiabao 11 times, in that same period. So, there is very frequent communication and contact between the two sides.

Today, we are called strategic and cooperative partners for peace and prosperity. That is how India and China define their relations and the relationship as I said has become increasingly multi-faceted where closely interacting with each other in a number of areas and also as I said on issues concerning the global economic situation.

Just recently as a follow-up as a result of Premier Wen Jiabao’s visit in December, our two Governments have decided to institute

PRIME MINISTER MET MR HU JINTAO 12 TIMES BETWEEN 2005 AND 2010 AND PREMIER WEN JIABAO 11 TIMES a strategic economic dialogue, as a measure of the increasing complexity and sophistication of the dialogue on economic issues. So we will just commence that new dialogue this year. This is a new addition to what we do in the relationship.

The challenge I believe in this century, when it comes to India and China, and this is a relationship that is really going to be, I would not be exaggerating when I draw reference to what a Chinese scholar Tan Yun Shan said about Sino-Indian relations being “the most important of the most important”.

I think when it comes to the relationship between these two big Asian giants, a lot of what happens in this relationship will impact the situation in our region and particularly when it comes to the economic strength the rising economic strength of

INDIA ATTRACTING CHINESE STUDENTS: Many Chinese students are pursuing higher education in India

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both these countries the world certainly is watching and assessing the impact of this relationship.

Before I conclude, I should also refer to the fact of China’s relationship with Pakistan. There is also that question that comes up and most people who follow this whole issue would be interested in hearing our views on it.

Pakistan is one of our important neighbours and we believe that a stable Pakistan, a prosperous Pakistan is in India’s interest.

And we are not against Pakistan’s relations with other countries. We do not believe relationships with countries are zero sum games. At the same time we do not hesitate to stress our genuine concerns regarding some aspects of the Pakistan-China relationship particularly when it comes to China’s presence in Pakistan occupied Kashmir, China’s policy on Jammu and Kashmir and China-Pakistan security and nuclear relationship. Here we have welcomed a more open discussion with China on these issues and I believe as mutual confidence grows in this relationship we will have more opportunities to discuss these issues and also to seek more clarity and more transparency in regard to the concerns that we have raised.

The issue of giving stapled visas to Indian nationals from the state of Jammu and Kashmir also arises in a similar context. So, these are issues that are of concern to us when it comes to the China-Pakistan relationship. Because when China gives the stapled visa to an Indian living in Jammu and Kashmir, the inference that we draw out of this is somehow the status of Jammu and Kashmir is being questioned by China. The issue of Indian sovereignty over Jammu and Kashmir is being questioned by China. This is an issue that we need to resolve. The Chinese Government has told us that they are giving serious attention to this and they would like to see this resolved and we are hoping that there would be satisfactory resolution to this.

We believe that the India-China relationship will grow even stronger once China show more sensitivity on these core issues that we feel impinge our sovereignty and our territorial integrity and we hope that this can be realised.

(Excerpts from the speech by Foreign Secretary on “Prospects and Challenges of India China Interactions in the 21st Century” at the India China Institute, The New School, New York, on February 12, 2011) March 2011

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TECH SCAN

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21ST CENTURY CAMOUFLAGE A RANGE of modern camouflage, concealment and deception techniques are being developed by leading nations of the world.

With the intention of countering ever-more accurate weapons and detection devices, and inspired by advances in cutting-edge scientific fields such as biomimetics, fractals, imaging analysis and nanotechnology, they threaten to redefine the battlespace of the future.

Ever since the invention of nitro powder helped turn the brightly liveried soldiers of the 1800s into highly visible targets on the newly smokefree battlefields of Europe, the race has been on to provide uniforms that allow military personnel to hide effectively in plain sight. Now, however, the ubiquitous tiger stripes and woodland camouflage patterns that have become so familiar are themselves about to be ousted by a whole new generation of high-tech fabrics, purpose designed to conceal.

The first incarnations of this new technology can already be seen on the battlefields of Iraq and Afghanistan, where pixellated, digital micro-patterns have replaced the older macro-pattern colour blobs previously worn by many Western forces. The UK, France, Germany and the US have all developed their own versions, based on an understanding of human neurological response and the wonderfully named science of “clutter metrics” — the study of how readily objects can be located and identified.

In the light of work currently being done at the Sandia National

Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico, the long-held dream of adaptive camouflage — that elusive ability to adapt to a changing environment like a chameleon — may shortly become a reality.

It has been inspired by the way certain species of fish seemingly effortlessly change colour and pattern to blend in with their surroundings — a trick they achieve using tiny motor proteins in their cells which rearrange the crystals of pigment within their skins. Scientists at Sandia have taken this same approach and started to adapt it to create a synthetic, biomimetic material that will share the animals’ ability to colour-shift.

As the falling price of thermal imaging and night vision technology has brought these devices within the reach of insurgents and terrorist groups, inevitably the development of a range of appropriate countermeasures has assumed a new priority. For uniforms, this has meant coupling design elements — such as pocket outlines that are offset from the vertical to avoid the tell-tale straight lines that attract an observer’s eye — with new fabrics that mask a soldier's heat signature.

With so many of the scientific advances in fields as diverse as biomimicry, nanotechnology, neurological perception and materials science feeding into the development of modern camouflage, increasingly you really cannot believe your own eyes — which is good news for warfighters everywhere.

ELECTROMAGNETIC RAY GUN REMOTE-EXPLODES IEDS A SWISS designed electromagnetic weapon could turn into a powerful anti-terrorist device capable of safely exploding improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in Colombia and Afghanistan from 25 meters away.

The technology comes from the Swiss technology institute EPFL, which has been investigating how to disarm IEDs for two years with Colombia and Los Andes universities. Surfaceplanted IEDs or mines have gathered many headlines over recent years as a preferred terror weapon of choice for insurgents in Afghanistan and Iraq, and guerrilla groups in Colombia — they’re such an issue in the South American nation that the local electricity company has paid for some of this research.

IEDs typically contain some simple circuitry to act as a remote trigger, a sizable quantity of explosive, a blasting cap as a primary detonator and are often chiefly composed of plastic parts — this is for ease of construction, and also to make them hard to detect using conventional metal detectors. Finding them, then trying to defuse them, is tricky, as due to their very nature each is of a different design. This is partly why the military has been investing in robots in Afghanistan, and why the British developed their www.geopolitics.in

Wheelbarrow robot to tackle IEDs planted by Irish terror groups - the robots typically inspect the devices, then aid in their disposal, either by firing a shotgun round (or other projectiles) into the IED’s circuits, or by planting military-controlled disposal explosives. This solution works, but it’s time-consuming, and not a task to be undertaken when under missioninduced time pressures, or in conflict situations.

Enter the Swiss ray gun. Because IEDs are often only shielded by plastic and have inexpert circuitry, they’re potentially susceptible to electromagnetic pulse overrides. The ray gun essentially swamps the control electronics inside with radio-wave-induced currents and forces the IED to detonate at a chosen moment, rather than a disastrous one. It’s this principle that’s driven the Swiss tech on.

The system generates a sequence of fast broad-spectrum electromagnetic pulses of intense radio waves at up to 1GHz in a particular direction. By refining the design over the years, Professor Farhad Rachidi and his team have been able to work out optimal bandwidths to use, and have perfected the device to counter IEDs typically used in Colombia. It’s extremely adjustable though, and could be quickly refined to work against IEDs in Afghanistan.

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NISHANT, DRDO’s unmanned air vehicle, has passed a series of confirmatory trials conducted recently by the Army, the Defence Research and Development Organization (DRDO) has announced.

The tests were conducted at Chandan Range at Pokhran before the Army took

delivery of four Nishant UAVs along with ground systems. The performance of the payload sensors, in particular, has been better than the imported UAVs with the Army. It is expected that more of such equipment will soon be purchased by the users.

Nishant can be used in battlefield reconnaissance during day and night, surveillance, counter-insurgency operations, target tracking and localisation and correction of artillery fire. It has been designed and developed by DRDO lab Aeronautical Development Establishment, Flight Control Systems and Simulators, along with other sister labs.

CAN DETECT LIFE TRAPPED UNDER DEBRIS DRDO HAS developed a special technology to detect human beings trapped under the debris of buildings after earthquakes or landslides.

Called the Acoustic Life Detector or Sanjeevani, it uses highly sensitive acoustic sensors and audio signals to listen to the low frequency sounds from below the debris. The acoustic sensors are designed to detect a range of low frequency signals like hitting, tapping, scratching or moaning sounds made by the victims trapped in the rubble of houses and other structures.

The all-weather equipment is sealed in an air-tight compartment and can detect human lives to the depth of six to eight metres below the debris.

The technology is part of Accelerated Technology Assessment and Commercialisation (ACTC) programme, jointly endorsed by DRDO and Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI). ACTC aims at delivering the technologies developed by the DRDO in the commercial market for use in civilian products and services.

MEDIUM-COMBAT AIRCRAFT IN THE WORKS THE AERONAUTICAL Development Agency (ADA), the Indian defence ministry-owned laboratory that designs fighter jets, has started working on four critical technologies for a proposed medium-combat aircraft (MCA) it plans to build.

The laboratory is working on technologies including a stealth system that will help the jets avoid detection by radars and supersonic cruise. The aircraft developer is confident that the proposed project would be approved by the government and Rs 8,000-12,000 crore sanctioned by early 2012 for it. The laboratory,

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which is part of the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), hopes to use aerodynamic design as well as a special material and radar-absorbing paints to reduce detection. It has asked DRDO laboratories in Kanpur and Jodhpur to work on developing these technologies.

Supersonic cruise will be achieved by aerodynamic design and enhanced engine thrust. DRDO's Gas Turbine Research Establishment is working with French engine maker Snecma to develop the engine. The other two technologies being developed include pilot associates and sensor data fusion.

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DR

DO

BIO-TOILETS FOR SOLDIERS

INDIAN DEFENCE scientists have recruited a small army of bacteria and harnessed solar power to build bio-toilets for managing the human waste of soldiers stationed at glaciers and other low temperature areas. When left buried in the ice, the low temperature prevents natural biodegradation of waste, leading to their accumulation for a long time.

Due to heating by direct sunlight, the melting ice takes the waste to rivers, polluting them as well, scientists said.

Traditional methods of burying human waste or incineration and chemical treatment are not possible in glaciers. Biological treatment is an attractive approach to solve the problem but micro-organisms that decompose the waste in normal temperatures are inactive at freezing temperatures.

Technology developed by the Defence Research and Development Establishment (DRDE) overcomes the problem.

The key to DRDE’s bio-toilet technology is a consortium of anaerobic bacteria —organisms which do not require oxygen to live and multiply — that has been formulated and adopted to work at temperatures as low as five degrees Celsius, the scientists said.

DRDE scientists say their technology allows the human waste to be disposed of in an eco-friendly manner in places with extremely low temperatures. They claim their process results in waste being effluent free from pathogens while biogas (methane) is generated as a byproduct, which can be used for cooking and room heating. According to scientists, the biodigester developed by DRDE is suitable for below zero temperatures of the Himalayan region and is maintenance free. Around 90 DRDE bio-toilets have been installed at 24 locations, including several places in Leh, Sikkim and at the Base Camp in Siachen glacier, DRDE said.

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GEOPOLITICS

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Right Angle

THE ARAB UNREST

W

hat are the geopolitical implications of the swelling unrest in the Arab world? It has already led to the change of governments in Tunisia and Egypt. Libya is likely to be the next in line for a new government. Rulers in Iran, Oman and Bahrain are struggling with popular uprisings. Saudi King Abdullah is facing a petition from intellectuals demanding far-reaching reforms.

Broadly speaking, there are two schools of thought on the outcome of the Arab upheavals that the world will witness. One is the fear that the Muslim-Arab world turns an Islamic-Arab world. This thesis is supported by the recent Arab history. Whenever any authoritarian ruler has been overthrown through street riots and violent demonstrations, the concerned country has come Prakash under the grab of fundamentalist forces.

Look at what happened in Iran after the fall of Shah. Even Iraq, despite the presence of Americans there, is turning back towards the middle ages, thanks to the fundamentalist Shia leaders who now control the country after the overthrow of the Sadam Hussein regime. Equally instructive is what happened in the Gaza strip. Street protests against the then Palestine leadership of Yassar Arafat, coupled with American pressure, resulted in an election that both the Palestinian Authority and Israel said was a mistake. The fundamentalist extremist Hamas got 70 per cent of the vote, and quickly set to executing moderate Palestinians and firing rockets into Israel.

Thus, going by the above instances, religious leaders, most of them fundamentalist, will control the new Arab governments. That will prove extremely dangerous for Israel, which, then will go openly nuclear. It is quite likely that there will be yet another round of Arab-Israel war, which, in turn, will aggravate further the ongoing global energy crisis. An Islamic Arab world will also further strengthen the Islamic terrorists in other parts of the world, particularly in South Asia, South-east Asia, Central Asia and many parts of Africa. Naturally, India, fighting LeT (this issue of our magazine throws fresh light on it), has every reason to be concerned.

However, the other competing school of thought on the Arab unrest suggests something else. It generates confidence that democratic reforms may bring to power political players well disposed to the democratic countries such as India, the United States and the values they represent.

See how India has been requested to conduct elections in Egypt, its advocates say. This school of thought says that democracy is not only becoming “globalised” but also getting “revitalised”. And it is because of the fact that unlike the fall of the Berlin Wall 20 years ago and the demise of www.geopolitics.in

the apartheid regime in South Africa 17 years ago, the 2011 democratic Arab revolution has not come at the point of foreign guns or as a by-product of other agendas.

This time here the seeds are unequivocally and genuinely homegrown. Men and women are simply determined to take their future in their own hands. They want to be represented and have a say in the way their country is governed. Their agenda is domestic; yet at the same time they are teaching the international community that in the turbulent Arab region, the influential international players, mainly the United States, should give up the alibi of supporting the authoritarian regimes as guarantors of regional security and stability.

While there are undeniable merits in this school of thought, I would like, however, its advocates not to go hyper. A modicum of caution is needed, indeed. Take the case of Egypt.

Nanda There Mubarak, who was essentially heading an authoritarian military regime, has been ousted, but the country continues to be run by the military. It is becoming increasingly obvious that the military did not like Mubarak, its supreme leader, trying to appoint his son, a non-military man, as his successor. In other words, the military revolted against Mubarak’s dynastic plan. It then supported the demonstrators, with a clear goal that in the subsequent days, the people would give the military an opportunity to preserve its own interests. In other words, we cannot exactly say that a democratic revolution has taken place in Egypt.

I have two points to make. One is that it will be too sweeping to describe the unrest in the Arab world under a fixed category; the situation varies from country to country. In Libya, if the regime has not fallen, it is mainly due to the fact that the country consists of many tribes and the ruling tribe of Col. Gaddafi is still powerful compared to others and he will really fight till the end, at least as long as the powerful elements in the Libyan military show their tribal loyalty towards him.

Therefore, and this is my second point, while the Arabs would not like to remain slaves to their current authoritarian and absolute masters and need good governance, they will have new challenges, which will be different in different countries. Viewed thus, there will be neither a unified Islamist empire that will try to obliterate Israel nor a consortium of democracies, a la a European Union. Instead, we may see a colourful mosaic of nations, religious and ethnic groups, partly democratic and partly Islamic. And these nations will compete among themselves for power and influence, something the United States will continue to exploit as a “mediator”.

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prakashnanda@newsline.in March 2011

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