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D O TA N K S H AV E A F U T U R E ?

geopolitics VOL I, ISSUE III, JULY 2010 RS 100

D E F E N C E D I P L O M A C Y S E C U R I T Y

RUSSIAN POWER

IN DECLINE MANAGING

RADIATION LEAKS SECURING OUR

CITIES

GENDER WARS With growing demands for women in combat roles, let reason not be clouded by passion before the final judgment...

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DEFENSE AND SECURITY

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Electro-optics

EW Automatic Test Systems

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Madam Commander?

COVER STORY P40 MOD, GOI

The issue of women being inducted for combat duties requires a holistic and dispassionate view as the armed forces need, irrespective of gender, the fittest to perform assigned tasks.

INTERNAL SECURITY (P54)

PLUGGING THE LEAKS

MAOISTS TARGET CITIES

Can we bridge the glaring gap between the magnitude of radioactive materials used in the country and the security arrangements in place?

Naxalites are now intensifying their strikes and moving closer to towns and cities across the country. A detailed look

Photo by : H.C. Tiwari

SCRUTINY (P12)

INTERNAL SECURITY (P50)

FOCUS (P36)

DIPLOMACY (P62)

Securing our cities

Efficacy of intelligence

Nu(o)clear diplomacy

We have failed to develop the psyche of coordination, vigilance and preparedness to fight against urban terrorism and crime.

It is high time the Indian agencies learnt the right lessons from credible and effective global intelligence networks.

India’s diplomats need to take a bold stand about the nation’s nuclear policy, especially with regard to the CTBT.

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July 2010

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“ENHANCE MUTUAL TRUST” (P68) China’s and India’s common development will benefit Asia and the entire world, argues Chinese Ambassador Zhang Yan.

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DEMYSTIFYING THE DRAGON (P70) It is a matter of time before the lumbering Indian elephant catches up with the flying Chinese dragon.

DECLINE OF RUSSIAN POWER (P73)

INDO-SRI LANKA RELATIONS (P65)

The Russian fleet today is a pale shadow of its glorious past. GEOPOLITICS delves into the decline of Moscow's military prowess.

President Rajapaksa’s recent visit saw little progress on the settlement of the ethnic conflict and signing of the economic partnership pact.

SPOTLIGHT (P26)

Do tanks have a future?

Though most countries are going for improvement and systems upgradation of the main battle tank (MBT), its golden days are over.

A report.

SPECIAL FEATURE (P16) MOD, GOI

g GEOPOLITICS

Volume I No 3 Editor-in-Chief

LOOKING SPACEWARDS INDIAN ARMED FORCES ARE GRADUALLY PREPARING FOR THE NOT-SODISTANT PROSPECTS OF ‘STAR WARS,’ AS CHINA GOES ON CONDUCTING ANTI-SATELLITE TEST

K SRINIVASAN Editor

PRAKASH NANDA Consulting Editor

VISHAL DUGGAL Conceptualised and designed by Newsline Publications Pvt. Ltd., D-11 Basement, Nizamuddin (East), New Delhi -110 013, Tel: +91-11-41033381-82 Managing Editor: TIRTHANKAR GHOSH All information in GEOPOLITICS is derived from sources we consider reliable. It is passed on to our readers without any responsibility on our part. Opinions/views expressed by third parties in abstract or in interviews are not necessarily shared by us. Material appearing in the magazine cannot be reproduced in whole or in part(s) without prior permission. The publisher assumes no responsibility for material lost or damaged in transit. The publisher reserves the right to refuse, withdraw or otherwise deal with all advertisements without explanation. All advertisements must comply with the Indian Advertisements Code. The publisher will not be liable for any loss caused by any delay in publication, error or failure of advertisement to appear.

Owned and published by K Srinivasan, 4C Pocket-IV, Mayur Vihar, Phase-I, Delhi-91 and printed by him at Nutech Photolithographers, B-240, Okhla Industrial Area, Phase-I, New Delhi-110020.

Readers are welcome to send their feedback at geopolitics@newsline.in.

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D O TA N K S H AV E A F U T U R E ?

geopolitics VOL I, ISSUE III, JULY 2010 RS 100

D E F E N C E D I P L O M A C Y S E C U R I T Y

RUSSIAN POWER

IN DECLINE MANAGING

RADIATION LEAKS SECURING OUR

CITIES

GENDER WARS With growing demands for women in combat roles, let reason not be clouded by passion before the final judgment...

Picture: A woman soldier from the British armed forces. Will our armed forces ever allow women to take up combat duties?

Cover Design: Jitendra Rawat

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gONLOOKER RAJAPAKSANAMA! “THE CHINESE will come to Sri Lanka, build some projects and go, but the Indians will come here, they will build and they will stay. This is the difference in our relations with China and India,” Sri Lankan president Mahinda Rajapaksa told The Times of India in a twohour long interview at his ‘Temple Trees’ residence in Colombo in the last week of June. Rajapaksa who has been on an interview spree was in India earlier in June and had then spoken to N Ram of The Hindu.

“We are a nonaligned c o u n t r y.

Our neighbours are Indians. I always say, Indians are our relations.

From the time of Emperor Asoka, we have had that culture. The whole culture, irrigation, architecture has been built up over the last 2,500 years.

You can’t break that. But that doesn’t mean we won’t get commercial benefits from others.

From China, or Japan, or whoever. They will come here, they will build, and they will go back. India comes here, they will build and they will stay.

This is the difference. In simple terms, whenever our relationship is stronger and we get close to India, this campaign begins. They start to say India has started to rule, and they know India is very sensitive about Pakistan or China. So they will use these factors to upset the Indian public. Well, I think even the LTTE used this point”, he told the ToI. But what took the cake was his interview with the feisty Fauziah Ibrahim in Al Jazeera in May end.

FAUZIAH: But you can see how, there is this accusation of nepotism....

RAJAPAKSA: How can you say that?

FAUZIAH: Because your family members are in very high positions...

RAJAPAKSA: No, no, they have been elected by the people....

FAUZIAH: .... Very important positions.....

RAJAPAKSA: No, only one! Now he is a minister, I have appointed Gothabaya as the Defence Secretary, yes.

FAUZIAH: That’s a very important position..

RAJAPAKSA: Yes, why not? I have to trust my Defence Secretary.

FAUZIAH: And the only person you can trust is those in your family?

RAJAPAKSA: No, no... He is capable, and he has shown that he is capable and I can trust him. So why not?

FAUZIAH: What do you then say to critics who say that you are now building the Rajapaksa political dynasty?

RAJAPAKSA: I won’t. Why should I? It’s up to the people. People are electing them, what can I do about it? When they don’t want them, they will kick them out. All Rajapaksas will be kicked out. So they have to deliver. If Rajapaksas are delivering, what else do they want?

NITA SCORES A FIRST

NITA KAPOOR, a 1973 batch Indian Defence Accounts Service officer, has taken over as new Secretary for Defence Finance. In her last posting, Kapoor was Controller General of Defence Accounts. An alumnus of the National Defence College, Kapoor brings with her bureaucratic experience of almost 37 years. She is the first woman officer ever from the Northeast to become Secretary for Defence Finance.

NO MILITARY FOR MAOIST OPS IT’S OFFICIAL. The armed forces will have no direct role in anti-Maoist operations. At a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) in Delhi in the last week of June, both the Army and the Air Force expressed their inability to participate in such operations due to preoccupation with guarding the nation’s borders and anti-terrorism duties in J&K and the North-East.

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Left to fend for itself, the Home Ministry has now sought more resources to strengthen the central paramilitary forces (CPMFs) and state police. The financial implications of this were reportedly discussed at a meeting convened by Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee and attended

by Defence Minister AK Antony and Home Minister P Chidambaram.

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O N L O O K E R Cap on FDI to stay

FACING SUSTAINED criticism for its continuing dependence on foreign weaponry, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) is finalising an ambitious policy for building up India’s defence industry, both public and private. The Secreatary for Defence Production, R K Singh told the media that the country’s first-ever Defence Production Policy mandates that weaponry and military systems will be identified several years into the future, to allow Indian companies the time needed to develop and manufacture them. The identified systems will be allocated to specific Indian defence companies as development projects.

The MoD will lay down clear time targets and provide 80 per cent of the cost that will be incurred. Indian defence companies will be encouraged to register their technological

capabilities in an MoD data bank. When a need is anticipated for the Army, e.g. a futuristic Main Battle Tank, the MoD will survey the industry and identify at least two major companies, to which it will award development contracts. These two prime contractors, working with a tailor-made consortium of companies, will develop a separate tank prototype and the MoD will select one, or even both, for mass production.

A similar system of competitive development contracts is followed by the US defence establishment. The new Defence Production Policy is rooted in the MoD’s realisation that its longstanding acquisition model of building weaponry in India, through Transfer of Technology (ToT), has failed to generate indigenisation. Real indigenisation, the MoD now believes, comes from designing weaponry, not just manufacturing foreign designs.

STRATEGIC BONHOMIE ONE OBSERVER hit the nail on the head when he said: “The US-India relationship is replete with good feelings and warm imagery but bereft of many substantive achievements. As a result, bilateral affairs have been drifting for the past year and a half. The dichotomy of messages that came out of last week’s inaugural session in Washington DC of the US-India Strategic Dialogue is emblematic of the current state of affairs”.

Timothy J. Roemer, the US ambassador in New Delhi, proclaimed that “the future is bright and the sky is the limit” for the bilateral relationship. Indian Foreign Minister S.M. Krishna spoke of “a relationship of limitless opportunities for mutual benefit” and of setting “our sights on new milestones”. But officials from both countries cautioned the media that the session wouldn’t produce much in the way of concrete outcomes, and it didn’t. As Robert O. Blake, Jr., the Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia said: “We’re really not focused that much on deliverables”. True enough, the meeting adjourned with few tangible accomplishments. “India is an indispensable partner to the US”. The statement may please many, but the statement conceals an iniquitous US policy aimed at securing India’s cooperation with little regard to the latter’s interests.

Thomas Mathew of the influential think tank IDSA said: So what does India-US strategic partnership bring to the table for

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Courtesy: U S State Department

INDIA HAS communicated to Germany that at present there is no change in the policy of raising the cap on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) from 26 per cent in the defence sector. With the German defence industry taking up the issue of raising the cap to at least 49 per cent, if not higher, a top Defence Ministry official told his counterparts that the policy of restricting the limit to 26 per cent was not going to undergo a change in the perceivable future. Special Secretary of Defence Production Ajoy Acharya, who lead the official delegation at the Berlin Air Show, reiterated the Indian stand during his meeting with both German officials and those of the European Aeronautic Defence and Space (EADS) Company’s Defence and Security (DS).

Earlier, the EADS DS told Indian journalists that while the organisation planned to develop a Centre of Competence in India for developing a product that will be supplied to its global customers, it suggested the FDI cap be raised to at least 50 per cent. The EADS is among six manufacturers bidding to bag the multi-billion dollar 126 Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft that the Indian Air Force wants to acquire.

Meanwhile, Commerce and Industry Minister Anand Sharma has said that 74 per cent FDI in defence production, flagged in the concept paper of his ministry, cannot be taken as its “view”, because the issue is open for national debate”. Let me (make it) clear that it is not a DIPP (Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion) view. It is a discussion paper”, Sharma clarified. The DIPP, under his charge, had said in the discussion paper on May 17 that for the country to have state-of-the-art technology, “we have to permit anything above 50 per cent, if not 100 per cent”. It had even said that 100 per cent FDI would be desirable.

The Minister said that the decision on hiking foreign direct investment in the defence sector would be taken “only after taking on board the views of the defence establishment”. Under the present policy, 26 per cent FDI is allowed in defence.

New MoD policy to boost industry

India? It cannot only mean gains from India’s lucrative arms market that has already made Washington the largest arms supplier to India in 2008 in terms of the value of contracts signed notwithstanding the fact that India would find it difficult to use them in a conflict that does not have the implicit support of the US. It cannot also only mean greater access to US multinationals to Indian markets and increasing US exports to India.

For the record the joint statement said: “The US-India Strategic Dialogue is propelled by the dynamic momentum achieved in the US-India relationship over the last decade and is in pursuance of the global strategic partnership — for a better world that Prime Minister Singh and President Obama reaffirmed during their meetings in November 2009 and April 2010 in Washington. Secretary Clinton and Minister Krishna pledged to deepen people-to-people, business-to-business, and government-to-government linkages between the world’s oldest and largest democracies, for the mutual benefit of both countries and for the promotion of global peace, stability, economic growth and prosperity”.

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S

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FRIGHTENING

TOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) in its latest annual world military expenditure report released on June 2 believes that Pakistan has a total of 70 to 90 warheads compared to India’s 60 to 80. China, in comparison, has around 240 warheads. SIPRI said Pakistan’s weapons-grade plutonium production would jump seven-fold with the two new reactors at Khushab nearing completion.

Its two new heavy-water reactors are being built at Khushab nuclear facility, with China’s help. This will bolster its ongoing enriched uranium-based nuke programme with a weaponsgrade plutonium one. “Our conservative estimates are that Pakistan has 60 warheads and could produce 100 nuclear weapons at short notice,” said SIPRI. It is widely believed that Pakistan has earmarked its US-supplied F-16 fighters, Ghaznavi and Shaheen missiles as its nuke delivery systems. The report also discloses that Islamabad is developing an air-launched cruise missile Ra’ad and also carried out four tests of its land-launched sub-sonic cruise missile Babur.

But the information on these missiles’ ability to carry nuclear weapons is still not clear.

India’s nuclear weapons programme, in turn, has largely been plutonium-based, basically centered around the Pu-239 produced in research reactors like Cirus and Dhruva at Bhabha Atomic Research Centre. There is also a sense of worry in the armed forces about the lack of SLBMs (submarine-launched ballistic missiles) and ICBMs (intercontinental ballistic missiles) in their armoury, which are needed for a credible deterrent and for robust second-strike capabilities.

At present, only the short-range Prithvi missile (150-350km) and the 700-km range Agni-I have been fully operationalised. Agni-II (over 2,000-km) and Agni-III (3,500-km) are still in the process of being inducted by the Strategic Forces Command. India’s most ambitious strategic missile Agni-V, with a 5,000-km range, in turn, will be tested for the first time only by early-2011 or so.

The international think-tank said that the world’s military spending reached a colossal US $ 1.53 trillion in 2009. The US remained the biggest defence spender allocating a massive US $ 661 billion, accounting for almost 54 per cent of the increase in the global arms sale.

Data revealed how Asia and Ocenia region countries were also increasing their military expenditures by leaps. India with a defence spending of US $ 36 billion was at the ninth spot.

“In major and intermediate powers such as the US, Russia, China, India, Brazil, military spending continue to represent a long term strategic goal which they were unwilling to compromise even in hard economic times,” SPIRI said.

UNITED STATES

225

9,600

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STOCKPILE UK

PANORAMA

12,000

300

g

RUSSIA

FRANCE

ISRAEL

PAKINSTAN

CHINA

INDIA

240

80

70-90 60-80

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GLOBALEYE

SHALE GAS: EUREKA OR FALSE DAWN? An alternative source of natural gas is making waves in producer and consumer countries alike, CLAUDIO GULER writes

U

NCONVENTIONAL gas — pockets of underground natural gas found in hard-to-reach places — comes from several sources, coalbed methane (CBM) and tight gas sands among them.

None, however, are raising expectations of energy independence, improved security and reduced emissions for consumer countries more so than shale gas. Can it deliver?

Global estimates of shale gas reserves remain highly tentative.

Notwithstanding, the US alone enjoys anywhere from roughly 17 trillion cubic metres (tcm) to an eye-popping 108 tcm, depending on what projections you look at and how convincing you find their production potentials to be. Americans consume approximately 650 billion cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas per year.

One of the largest shale gas plays in the US is the Marcellus Formation, which stretches across southern New York state, western Pennsylvania, West Virginia and eastern Ohio. In 2009, the US Department of Energy estimated that the formation could contain 7.4 tcm of recoverable natural gas.

Europe may also have shale gas reserves to tap. Estimates here are even flakier as exploration and drilling initiatives, unlike in the US, are just now starting to take off. But in countries as varied as Poland, Germany, Hungary

and the UK, up to 15 tcm of trapped natural gas might be underground.

According to Statoil, the Norwegian energy group, prospectors are also likely to find large shale gas plays in China, Australia, the Middle East and North Africa region, and Latin America.

THE US SWEET ON SHALE When it comes to shale gas, the US has blazed the trail. US production took off in the mid to late 2000s. According to the independent US Energy Information Administration, US wells produced 34 bcm in 2007, a figure that jumped 70 per cent to 57 bcm in 2008, comprising approximately 9 per cent of US gas consumption. The growth continues. In 2009 the US surpassed Russia to become the number one gas producer in the world. The US, counting its conventional gas production, is now effectively self-sufficient in natural gas.

Advances in technology — horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing in particular — and an elevated secular price for natural gas are the principal factors that have made complex shale gas drilling operations possible and economical.

Horizontal drilling improves gas recoverability by better intersecting the myriad fissures between shale slabs. To expedite the process and to increase the amount of gas captured, water mixed with sand and other

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drilling chemicals is pumped into the well at high pressures to prop open the shale slabs in a practice known as hydraulic fracturing or ‘hydro-fracking’.

The corporate leader in the shale gas bonanza is Oklahoma City-based Chesapeake Energy, a company that has stakes in the Barnett (Texas), Fayetteville (Arkansas), Bossier and Haynesville (Northwest Louisiana and East Texas), and Marcellus natural gas shale plays. Other interested parties include familiar energy multinationals BP, Royal Dutch Shell, Total and Statoil. Beijing and Washington are also cooperating in the development of shale gas resources in China.

A ‘SHALE’ GAME During the past two or three years a conflagration of adverse developments has put traditional natural gas producers on the defensive.

The Great Recession tangibly dampened global gas demand. And shale gas especially, but also liquefied natural gas (LNG), started coming online in significant quantities.

Matthew Hulbert, a senior researcher and energy expert at the Center for Security Studies in Zürich, Switzerland, explains, “The main countries to lose out, at least for now, are the major gas producers, or what we traditionally think of as gas producers, Russia, Algeria, Iran, Bolivia the most obvious ones, Qatar and July 2010

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UNTAPPED POTENTIAL: A gas platform in the North Sea belonging to Statoil

some smaller Gulf producers the others. West Africa comes into the mix a bit, but LNG developments are relatively small at this stage.

“The main example you have is [shale gas] production in the US. This has totally scuppered any prospects that North America would be the LNG export market of choice. The result is that Europe and much of Asia finds itself (sic) swamped in gas. China stands to gain from this considerably as it now has a number of strong supply options to hand rather than being picked off in a sellers market. The real concern now for producers is if unconventional gas takes off in Asia and Europe.”

But Hulbert counsels prudence. “The world will need lots of gas, the market could well tighten, especially once economic growth returns, and consumers better hope they are either well prepared or shale gas is a real runner. Otherwise the world could look very different again, and pretty quickly.”

Hulbert argues that a hard-hitting international gas cartel along the lines of OPEC or a troika of powerful, price-fiddling producers (Russia, Iran, Qatar) is unlikely. That said, some sort of backlash could be in the offing should producers feel their margins are squeezed too far too fast and sanguine shale gas projections fail to materialise.

For Washington, shale gas is a much-wel-

comed stepping stone in the decades-long, seemingly elusive pursuit of energy independence. European capitals equally welcome any opportunity to chip away at their energy dependence on equivocal Russia.

But energy independence in natural gas will not alleviate the US’s national security predicament in the Middle East, whereby a US military presence in the Muslim world and US financial and diplomatic backing for local autocrats to guarantee oil supplies and the free flow of commerce create domestic tensions that in part manifest themselves as Islamic terrorism.

“The sea lane issues from the Gulf of Aden, to the Indian Ocean and beyond are still about maritime power and oil supplies — hence the game is still on,” Hulbert notes.

AN INCONVENIENT CATCH Natural gas combustion results in roughly sixty per cent of the greenhouse gas emissions from coal.

Using more natural gas could help copious emitters like the US achieve yet unstated reduction targets, but there’s a catch. Professor Robert Howarth from Cornell University cautions in a March 2010 preliminary assessment of the environmental impacts of shale gas production that methane leakage from drilling

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and distribution could negate any anticipated environmental benefits. Methane, over a 100year period, has 25 times the warming potential of carbon dioxide. The outcome could thus be a wash.

What is more, as reported by National Public Radio (NPR) and experienced by the residents of rural Dimock, Pennsylvania, shale gas drilling and hydraulic fracturing are anything but risk-free undertakings.

The top secret solutions used in hydrofracking are highly toxic. The contamination of local water wells and underground aquifers, although much of the drilling occurs far below the water table, remains a concern. The US Environmental Protection Agency is considering updating the outdated and likely deficient regulatory framework.

In Europe, environmental concerns could delay shale gas drilling operations, as population densities tend to be higher and regulations more stringent.

In sum: An energy, environment and security panacea? Hardly. A boon for consumers?

Probably, but only if the numbers hold. (ISN) (The author is an ISN Security Watch senior correspondent based in New York. His areas of expertise include international criminal justice and climate change)

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LANDFILL THREAT FOR IAF THE INDIAN Air Force (IAF) has strongly protested the decision of the Municipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD) to set up a landfill facility to dump waste at a site in Bawana-Narela, citing bird strikes and environmental threat to its adjacent station.

As the site is located only 3.5 km away from their base station, Air Force officials have argued that the foul smell and garbage at the proposed dumping site would attract birds, thereby hampering air operations.

They have registered their objections at a public hearing held recently by the Deputy Commissioner (Northwest) for the construction of solid waste management facility in the 100 acres to be developed by Delhi MSW Solutions of Hyderabad-based Ramky Group.

The MCD has purchased the land at the Bawana-Narela site for the landfill facility with a capacity of 1,000 metric tonnes per day. It is proposed to be operational by 2011 for the next 20 years as identified in Masterplan for Delhi 2021.The Air Force fears that the garbage site would affect air and groundwater quality posing health risk to its personnel at the base, besides causing traffic congestion.

However, the Delhi MSW Solutions, which is developing the site, asserts that the proposed site would be set up in accordance to the latest scientific and environmental norms and would be insulated from human habitation.

NAG HITS TARGET IN 3.2 SECONDS

ANTI-TANK MISSILE Nag was successfully test-fired from the Army's Field Firing Range at Shamirpet, near Hyderabad on June 13. This time it hit a moving object. On June 6, it destroyed a sta-

tionary target and proved its capability of destroying a target at a close range of 500 metres in three seconds.

This time, Nag smashed the moving target in 3.2 seconds after its launch at 10.30 a.m.

The test-firing was conducted by missile scientists from the Defence Research and Development Laboratory (DRDL) after the Army requested for a close-range launch on a moving target. The missile punched a hole as it pierced through the target, which was specially developed by Hyderabad-based Delta Technologies in collaboration with DRDL. With the land version of the missile already proving a maximum range of four km in the user trials held in the last two years in Rajasthan, Nag had a higher lock-on before launch (LOBL) range compared to contemporary third generation anti-tank missiles. As the missile is expected to be cleared for induction by the Army after the final validation trials next month, the pre-production process was on at Bharat Dynamics Limited.

Equipped with an active Imaging Infra-Red (IIR) seeker to make it highly accurate, the missile has topattack capability to defeat the armour of modern-day tanks. The missile carries a highly potent HEAT (high explosive anti-tank) warhead and could be launched during both day and night.The first flight-test of airborne version of Nag, called HELINA, is expected to be conducted by the year-end. Having lock-on after launch capability, the air-borne variant would be deployed on Advanced Light Helicopters.

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g A SAFEHOUSE IN THE SHIP PREPARING FOR contingencies like storming an Indian vessel if it is taken over by pirates, the Navy has told the government that every Indian flagship must compulsorily have an on-board “safehouse” where the crew can barricade itself in case of an attack so that an operation can be mounted and a hostage-situation averted. While the government will have to take a call on issuing such instructions, Navy Chief Admiral Nirmal Verma has argued that the situation is getting tougher, given the ambitious reach of the Somali pirates.

This move comes in the wake of a recent incident involving a Russian ship, MV Moscow University, which was taken over by pirates last month in the Gulf of Aden. The 23-member crew cut the power and barricaded themselves. Soon after, a nearby Russian warship launched a helicopter that fired at the attackers and then captured the ship along with the pirates. A safehouse, according to the Navy, should have rudder control and communication equipment with limited provisions.

The room should be strengthened with added construction to prevent it from being breached easily. Many countries have already started adopting innovative ways to protect their ships. These too have been shared with the Shipping Ministry so that certain upgradations can be mandated as self-protection measures.

EVEREST HERO WANTS TO JOIN ARMY A 16-YEAR-OLD school boy, who created history by becoming the youngest Indian to climb Mt Everest, met Indian Army chief Gen. V.K. Singh and expressed his desire to join the force.

Arjun Vajpai, a doughty schoolboy from the city of Noida, adjoining Delhi, met Gen. Singh recently. On meeting the chief, he expressed a deep desire to join the Indian Army where fortitude and courage is a norm.

His next mission is to join the elite National Defence Academy.

Vajpai, son of a retired army major and an alumnus of Nehru Institute of Mountaineering, last month hoisted the Indian tricolour on the snow-clad summit of the 8,848-metre mountain. He is a class 12 student of Ryan International School in Noida.

Zero tolerance for corruption: Antony

CLAIMING THAT Army personnel should follow the policy of zero tolerance towards corruption and refrain from making any human rights violation, Defence Minister A K Antony has announced an additional payment of Rs 3000 per month to Army personnel who retired on disability pension.

“Keeping in view the valour and sacrifice made by the Army personnel, those who retired on disabled ground would get an additional Rs 3000 per month as constant attendant in addi-

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tion to the disability pension,’ announced the Minister while addressing the Army personnel during his visit to the Central Command Headquarters in Lucknow.

He said some armed forces personnel were retained in service despite a disability that was attributed, or aggravated by military service, who forego a lumpsum compensation in lieu of disability.

“Now it has been decided to grant these Army personnel as a disability element or war injury element at the time of their retirement or discharge in addition to pension and gratuity besides the constant attendant allowances of Rs 3000 per month,” he disclosed.

Mr Antony said adopting zero tolerance towards corruption and refraining from human rights violation would substantially enhance the image of the Army and remove any existing misgivings. “There is no doubt that the defence and security of the nation is in safe hands and all of your will always continue to preserve the glorious traditions of the armed forces.”

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PLUGGING THE LEAKS As the Mayapuri radiation incident in Delhi reveals, there exists a glaring gap between the magnitude of radioactive materials used in the country and the security arrangements in place. SITAKANTA MISHRA analyses

Photo by: H.C. Tiwari

MANAGING CRISIS: Police personnel handling the radioactive material recovered from the Mayapuri scrap market

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S ANY incident involving nuclear facility or material expectedly invites media attention and public concern, the radiation leak in Delhi’s Mayapuri area has raised a serious question with regard to the nuclear safety and security in India: Are we prepared to safeguard radioactive sources and tackle radiation disaster? The International Atomic Energy Authority (IAEA), while demanding an explanation from India, called it “the most serious global instance of radiation exposure since 2006”. But, a deeper understanding of the issue would reveal that the incident was not owing to the lack of our regulatory or technological competence, but because of the inevitable gap between the

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A legislation to co-ordinate central and state government responsibilities in managing the radioactive resources, their safekeep and guidelines for prompt response in case of a disaster All its sea-ports in India should be made Container Security Initiative (CSI)-compliant A national Nuclear Information Management (NIM) programme to address misconceptions regarding radioactive materials Extensive installation of Radiation monitoring Systems at major check points Strengthening the readiness of our medical establishment , especially in industrial cities A comprehensive inventory of facilities that received radioactive materials prior to AERB

knowledge and technology we possess and the magnitude of challenges on the ground.

Given the interest generated in the subject, the moment appears right to take a serious look at some relevant issues. First of all, Cobalt-60, used in the Chemistry Department of Delhi University irradiator received from Canada in 1970, is an excellent gamma source, much more penetrating than alpha or beta radiation and has a much longer range. One microcurie of Cobalt-60 has a life span of more than one decade and emits 1332.5 KeV of energy. This is used for various purposes — in fabrication work, especially steel welding, in radiotherapy for treating cancer, for food irradiation, in industrial radiography such as nucleonic gauges for thickness measurement, in well-logging operations, in research laboratories, etc.

In India, use of ionising radiation sources for various applications in different areas has registered phenomenal growth. Radioactive materials used for industrial and medical applications are estimated at over 12,000 units which include 300 telecobalt therapy units, 100 accelerators, over 2,000 computed tomography scan units, 150 nuclear medicine centres, 1400 industrial radiography cameras, 8000 nucleonic gauges and 14 gamma radiation processing plants. Many more academic and research institutions might have unaccounted radioactive devices procured before the Atomic Energy Regulatory Board (AERB) was formed. Generally facilities and equipments that use radioactive materials including Cobalt-60 require license or authorisation by the AERB. In India, Cobalt-60 is supplied by the Board of Radiation and Isotope Technology and is imported under strict licensing process. Any replacement of Cobalt-60 used equipment needs AERB consent and must be returned to the original supplier. But security arrangements at facilities that use these materials do not essentially accord adequate attention.

According to one viewpoint, physical protection at these sites is rather lax, “at best comparable to the protection provided at a jeweller shop”.

It is easy to point fingers towards the AERB as it has no inventory of radioactive materials sourced from abroad prior to its own existence. But, as per the end-user agreement, the onus is on the supplier to ensure return of the defunct radioisotopes.

At best, the user could have taken the responsibility of their safekeep or disposal.

All these years, the BARC has been collecting the materials from the users for disposal.

How the gamma cell irradiator of Delhi Uni-

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versity was overlooked is undoubtedly a matter of serious concern. First, the facilities that received such materials before the AERB was established have been unaccounted by it subsequently. Second, the personnel in charge of these materials in Delhi University have retired and since the irradiator was not in use for 25 years, it was completely forgotten by the subsequent staffs in charge that it contained radioactive material. Third, neither is the scrap market equipped with radiation detection devices nor have the scrap workers any radiation awareness. So there exist serious gaps at each level, starting from the suppliers’ responsibility to the users’ onus, from waste disposal to the public awareness.

This does not mean that India has no capability to safeguard its radioactive sources or to quickly respond to radioactive disaster. In fact, Delhi Police could promptly trace the source of supply and BARC could effectively contain the situation. Also the medical team responded efficiently in saving lives. But what is worrisome is our complacency and callousness about possible accidents like this, which no one has ever imagined. Considering the magnitude of radioactive materials used in the country and the security arrangements in place, there would be no guarantee that a Mayapuri-like incident will not happen again.

Indian vendors get large scrap consignment from distant places. They are transported to ship recycling yard or industrial areas in the country that receive consignments from other countries. In India, Alang in Bhavnagar district of Gujarat recycles half of all the ships salvaged around the world.

Even some scrap recovered after the collapse of the twin towers in the US is claimed to have come to Mayapuri. Dealers in this market get scrap metals “from across the world”, and “mostly from China”.

According to the National Hazardous Waste Management Strategy (2009) estimates, there are about 30,000 industries generating hazardous waste of the order of 6 million tonnes per annum in the country. As per the Hazardous Waste regulations, industries are required to store hazardous waste for a period not exceeding 90 days. The waste could either be recycled or disposed off in captive or common Treatment, Storage and Disposal Facilities (TSDF) available in every state. In this case, how this scrap from Delhi University slipped into the market is a matter of speculation. As far as control over such material is concerned, Section 17 of the Atomic Energy Act 1962, specifically referred July 2010

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g SCRUTINY to ensure safe use of radiation generating plants. Before the AERB was set up in 1983, the Directorate of Radiation Protection (DRP) was responsible for radiation protection programme including radiation surveillance in hospitals, industries and research institutes. It suggests that the coordination between the DRP and AERB was absent after the former was established.

However, the AERB protocol prescribes strict regulations for their supply, maintenance, and disposal. It recommends the design, transport packaging, surveillance procedures through the Review Committee for Applications of Radiation (SARCAR) for all non-DAE installations. To receive and operate a radiotherapy machine, the minimum requirement prescribed with fixation of responsibilities (Atomic Energy Rules 2004) are (a) hospital — the owner, (b) a licensee - head of the institution, and (c) radiation safety officers (RSOs). High-intensity sources such as teletheraphy units, accelerators and radiation processing units

require an RSO at Level III (most qualified), diagnostic nuclear medicine applications require an RSO at Level II and simple diagnostic radiography units need to employ an RSO at Level I. Any other facilities that use radioactive material require individual license or authorisation by the AERB. The SARCAR recommends granting of authorisations for disposal or radioactive wastes generated in medical, industrial, agriculture and research applications under the Atomic Energy Rules 1987. Particularly, the Radiological Safety Division (RSD) is responsible for carrying out regulatory inspections of all non-DAE radiation facilities. The gamma radiation processing plants are inspected once a year while radiotherapy units are inspected once in three years. Surprise inspections are also conducted periodically.

Any unit that fails to carry out its duties as per AERB stipulations is asked to surrender its authorisation certificates, and radiography sources are recalled.

A large number of radioactive consignments, nearly 80,000 per year, containing radioactive materials are being transported within, and many more also transit through, the country. A Committee on Safe Transport of Radioactive Material (COSTRAM) therefore has been constituted in May 2003 to review safety aspects of the transport of these materials.

However, there is always scope for

improvement given that there may be gaps in actual application. The existing safety and security arrangements seem to be focussed more on nuclear power plants. So far, disaster involving any Indian nuclear plants is nil, probably owing to stringent security and safety arrangements in and around the facilities. In the same way, security of radioactive material used in other facilities requires to be given equal attention. Unfortunately, the level of public awareness about radiological materials is abysmally low. Regular training courses are arranged by nuclear power plants for the public of surrounding area but no curriculum on radiation awareness is prescribed in schools or in other institutions in the area. Also there is lack of adequate numbers of trained police and medical personnel to carry out prompt detection and action in this regard. Perhaps the scientific-political leadership is extra cautious to avoid unnecessary public panic as the popular perception on anything radioactive is blurred. Therefore, the DAE and AERB face a dual challenge of dealing with risks involving the safety of nuclear materials and inadequate public perception.

In spite of all regulatory-technical arrangements in place, it can never be said with utmost certainty that incidents like Mayapuri may never recur. Our systems, even though efficient, have not been able to monitor the circulation of these materials laterally. Firstly, the task of monitoring each and every material used in

VOICING CONCERNS: IAEA has taken a serious note of the Mayapuri radiation incident

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g SCRUTINY

Photo by: H.C. Tiwari

HECTIC INSPECTION: The scientific team examining the samples of radioactive scrap innumerable places scattered across the geography is stupendous. For example, by 2008, only the number of diagnostic X-ray units registered in the country stands at 50,000 approximately. Secondly, with limited resources at India’s disposal, sustained outreach and individual monitoring of each and every unit is difficult. Thirdly, high level of illiteracy persists particularly among the workers involved in the unorganised sector.

Outreaching to train them all would be difficult as they shift often to other sectors.

As India is preparing for a giant step in nuclear energy production and more nuclear materials would be used in the decades

THERE ARE ABOUT 30,000 INDUSTRIES GENERATING HAZARDOUS WASTE OF THE ORDER OF 6 MILLION TONNES PER ANNUM IN THE COUNTRY.

ahead, more innovative ways of reaching out to the gaps in our system of monitoring, response and damage control will have to be found. Some of recommendations towards a concerned approach are as follows: Firstly, from the legal point of view, India needs legislation of a national Nuclear Technology Management Act, coordinating central and state governments’ responsibilities in managing the radioactive resources, their safe-keep and guidelines for prompt response in case of a disaster. Though the Disaster Management Act 2005 embodies provisions for managing nuclear disasters, a dedicated policy framework with supporting infrastructure for managing radiological emergency would be preferred. The WMD Act 2005 though an overarching and integrated legislation incorporating all possible ways of controlling the radioactive material pilferage, does not clarify the responsibilities of different states implementing such provisions.

Secondly, to control and monitor effectively the export-import and transit of radioactive material, India may consider making all its sea-ports CSI-compliant. The automated container screening and information exchange provisions of the Container Security Initiative (CSI) arrangement would help in intercepting the movement of such materials. At present, only the Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust (JNPT) at Mumbai is part of the initiative.

Thirdly, it is imperative now to frame a

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national Nuclear Information Management (NIM) programme to address misperceptions and panic among the public. A “first action manual” with Do’s and Don’ts prescription, needs to be catered to them.

Fourthly, extensive installation of Radiation Monitoring Systems at major chock points across the country with necessary technical training of the security personnel may be considered to monitor the movement of these materials.

Fifthly and most importantly is strengthening the readiness of our medical establishment. Hospitals in different cities are needed to be equipped for handling radiation emergencies. At the fire brigade stations, first response teams need to be created and kept in readiness, especially in industrial cities.

Also, medical centres where radiological materials are used need to be staffed adequately as they could become easy targets of non-state actors.

Lastly, what is urgently required is a comprehensive inventory of facilities that received radioactive materials prior to AERB. The Mayapuri incident is simply a wake-up call for all not to resort to blame games; rather a concerted approach by the authorities concerned, civil society and the media would help in avoiding such incidents in future.

(The author is a research scholar at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi) July 2010

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SPECIALFEATURE

BEHIND SPACE T SERENITY HE DEFENCE Ministry seems to have woken up to the need for India to prepare for a possible war in the star-studded final frontiers — the 'battlefield of the future'. Reflecting the Ministry's serious thinking on the contours of a plan to help India get ready for “Star Wars” especially in the context of Chinese advances in building up anti-satellite capability, the new 'Technology Perspective and Capability Roadmap' clearly points out the priority areas including space warfare and ballistic missile defence shield. The roadmap identifies the development of an anti-satellite capability "for electronic or physical destruction of satellites in both the low earth orbit (LEO) and geostationary orbit".

Sometime back, the outspoken Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) chief V.K. Saraswat had strongly advocated the need for building a comprehensive Indian space defence capability on the strength of the technological advances made by the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) and DRDO. In the bleak backdrop of anti-satellite and killer devices making their silent forays into the once tranquil expanse of the outer space, Saraswat stressed on the need to protect Indian space assets which are crucial and critical to every aspect of military operations on the ground, in air and on the sea.

With outer space all set to become the fourth dimension of the warfare, the chilling prospects of "star wars" portrayed in Buck Rogers's comic strips seems to have become a harsh reality.

However, the biggest worry for India would be how to protect a range of satellites for a variety of end uses including communications and broadcasting, navigation and earth observation as well as weather watch and scientific research that ISRO operates from. Saraswat has made it clear that India

In the wake of the anti-satellite test by China, Indian armed forces are looking space-wards to prepare for the not-so-distant prospects of “star war”, writes RADHAKRISHNA RAO

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THE US-LED ALLIED FORCES WERE ABLE TO ACHIEVE A MAJOR BREAKTHROUGH IN THEIR OPERATIONS IN AFGHANISTAN AND IRAQ BY MAKING EXTENSIVE USE OF “SPACE RESOURCES�.

NEW FRONTIERS: Space war is no longer a remote possibility should have a strategy in place to blunt the edge of "rogue and hostile satellites moving stealthily in the depths of outer space".

As strategic analysts point out, the USled allied forces were able to achieve major breakthroughs in their operations in Afghanistan and Iraq by making extensive, sustained and effective use of the "space resources." From communications and navigation to surveillance and reconnaissance, defence forces operating in various parts of the world are now more acutely dependent on satellite systems than ever before. As such, denial of access to space assets could result in a severe and unexpected setback to military operations.

The thesis of Saraswat is that spacebased assets are vital for the effective deployment of ballistic missile defence shield that India is now trying to put in place through a series of tests and evaluation trials. Going specific, he stated that India definitely needs satellites equipped with electro optical sensors and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) for providing early warning of a missile attack and other related developments of strategic importance. Satellites, observed Saraswat, assume a greater degree of importance to the Indian defence forces in sharpening their expertise in the area of network-centric warfare techniques. In addition, Indian armed forces are looking space-wards for boosting their intelligence gathering as well as surveillance and reconnaissance

capabilities. However, he rued the fact that as of now India lacks a dedicated defence satellite. An exclusive satellite for the use of Indian Navy is expected to be launched sometime this year. As pointed out by the Defence Minister AK Antony, this satellite, to be built and launched by ISRO, would help the Indian navy link up its ocean-based assets in a "flawless and efficient manner". In addition, the satellite is expected to boost the Indian navy's communication network for a vastly enhanced operational capability.

In early 2010, Saraswat had stated that DRDO was working on putting in place the building blocks of an Indian anti-satellite system. Of course, he made it clear that that the development of this critical antisatellite system is just to keep India prepared for any eventuality in the future. He also drove home the point that India should not leave anything to chance in so far as protecting its space assets is concerned. Military superiority to a large extent is drawn from an easy and reliable access to advanced satellite systems.

Going ahead, he revealed that laserbased space sensors and exo atmospheric kill vehicle (EKV) that DRDO is planning to develop in the years ahead would be of help in monitoring and tracking spacebased killer devices.

According to Saraswat, it is not difficult to predict the orbital movement of a satel-

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lite. Saraswat has also highlighted the fact that all the three wings of the services are looking at space-based resources in all their manifestations. "We need orbital space, radio frequency spectrum and a capability to replace and replenish satellites at a rapid pace", says Saraswat.

In February this year, a leading DRDO scientist had hinted at a plan to build and launch a high performance electronic intelligence satellite for the exclusive use of the Indian defence forces. While the payload of the satellite will be built by DRDO, the satellite bus and launch support would be made available by ISRO. This satellite, which is expected to be ready for launch by the middle of this decade, will have the capability to pick up conversations and monitor espionage activities.

Indeed, since China stunned the world through its early 2007 anti-satellite test, the Indian defence establishment has been expressing concern over the possible threat to Indian space assets "from development in a neighbouring country". While addressing the United Commanders Conference in New Delhi in mid-2008, Antony did not mince the words while highlighting India's genuine grievance over the "emergence of anti-satellite weapons, a new class of heavy lift-off boosters and improved array of military space devices in our neighbourhood".

Antony was apparently underscoring the Chinese threat to Indian space assets in July 2010

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g SPECIALFEATURE the context of a growing clamour to set up an Indian aerospace command. Antony backed up his concern by announcing the formation of a tri-service space cell as a precursor to the creation of Indian aerospace command. Antony also wondered as to how long India would "remain committed to the policy of non-weaponization of space even as counter-space systems are emerging in our neighbourhood".

In early 2007, as part of the move to refine its space war strategy, China destroyed an aging weather watch satellite positioned at an altitude of 537 miles above the earth by firing a ground based medium range ballistic missile. However, China would need a more sophisticated and longer range missile to put out of commission the satellites meant for communication and navigation which are normally placed in higher orbits. In the aftermath of this anti-satellite test the then ISRO Chairman G Madhavan Nair had stated that though it was well within the capability of ISRO to develop and deploy an anti-satellite system, India's concern was to keep outer space an area of "peace and tranquility".

Interestingly, both India and China have all along been pleading for banning the weaponisation of outer space. Taking a cue from earlier Russian and American experiments, China is working on space-based laser weapons to knock down "hostile and rogue" satellites. Laser, the high energy laser beam, has the potential to heat up the outer surface of a missile or a satellite until it is put out of order. Imaging surveillance satellites are highly vulnerable to laser as their functions depend on devices which are sensitive to light. However, spacebased laser weapons are yet to assume a practical shape.

As it is, the East Asian Strategy Review brought out by Japan's National Institute for Defence Studies states: "The organisations involved in China's space development program share ties with People's Liberation Army (PLA) and a large proportion of satellites launched and operated by China are believed to be used for military purposes." Joining the chorus for discussion in the aftermath of Chinese anti-satellite test, V.K.Aatre, a former DRDO chief, had strongly advocated the need to ensure that Indian space assets are not vulnerable to "extraneous threat". He was clear in his perception that future wars would be fought in outer space.

Incidentally in China, the dividing line between space activities and defence projects are as thin as they are tenuous.

SOUNDING THE SPACE ALERT: DRDO chief V K Saraswat is all for building a comprehensive Indian space defence capability Moreover, the totalitarian Communist regime in the country has ensured that space and defence establishments are not answerable to the public. Meanwhile, warfare experts hold the view that the Chinese plan for a permanent space station could give this communist giant a strategic edge in the event of a war involving "space assets". China is also building a new family of heavy lift off rockets to support its long term space and defence projects. The Chinese constellation of satellites for earth imaging, communications, navigation and weather forecasting are regularly used by its armed forces.

Making an oblique reference to Chinese advances in space war, Donald Rumsfled, a former US Defence Secretary, says that there is every possibility of US suffering a crippling surprise attack in what could be a veritable "Space Pearl Harbour". As such, he has argued that "America must develop means both to deter and add to defend against hostile acts in and from space". The most recent American space policy strongly defends US freedom of action in space, the right of self defence and right to deny "if necessary its adversaries the use of outer space". The US is planning to put in practice the doctrine of "counter-space operations" that seek to destroy or cripple enemy satellites. USA is fully well aware that accurate and timely information on the rogue and hostile satellites holds the key for defending its space assets.

In February this year, the US Missile Defence Agency (MDA) made a significant breakthrough in using a high powered laser beam mounted on an aircraft for knocking

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out a short-range ballistic missile. As pointed out by MDA, "the revolutionary use of directed energy is very attractive for missile defence with the potential to attack multiple targets at the speed of light, at a range hundreds of kilometres and a low cost per intercept attempt compared with current technologies". Interestingly, high energy laser beams have been successfully deployed against stationary targets from stationary locations. But this is for the first time that a laser beam directed from an aircraft has been used to hit a moving target.

The so-called 'directed energy' weapon is a collective reference to destructive devices fashioned out of lasers and subatomic particles. What makes laser an ideal device for use as a weapon in outer space is its inherent quality of moving straight without getting diffused or dissipated. Another radical concept is the use of high energy beam weapons fashioned out of sub-atomic particles. This weapon, if materialised, could be used with far more frightening effects than laser devices. The beam weapon is activated by accelerating sub-atomic particles to high velocities. But one hitch is that the charged subatomic particles are subject to "bending effect" of magnetic field. This means that the particles have to be rendered electrically neutral to be effective.

On its part, Russia has already made it clear that it is developing an advanced missile defence system to avoid being hit by the space-based missiles that US could deploy in future. It may be recalled that in Feb 2008 when US was planning to destroy a tumbling military satellite, Russia had reacted that this could be an attempt at sharpening the technique of "killer satellite device." Russia along with China had proposed a new treaty aimed at prohibiting the use of outer space with militaristic ambitions. But the White House shot down the proposal. Of course, existing treaties on outer space prohibit the use of outer space for defensive and offensive purposes.

Incidentally, the stirrings of the so-called Star Wars became evident after the former Soviet Union initiated experiments on the killer satellite in the late sixties. Between 1967 and 1971, American reconnaissance satellites were able to monitor a number of Soviet tests on killer satellites. In each test, the Soviet killer satellites were activated immediately on launch — to get closer to the target satellite and destroy it with the force of head-on collision.

(The writer is a Bengaluru-based scientist) July 2010

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geopolitics

DEF BIZ IN FOR A MAKEOVER

MoD finalising an ambitious policy for building up India’s defence industry through indigenisation

‘SUPER HERCULES’ NEARING COMPLETION American four-engine turboprop military transport aircraft in the final stage of development

REFUELLING DEVICE FOR AIR SHOW

Lockheed Martin to display an aerial refuelling device at the Farnborough Air Show

ACQUIRING ‘X-BAND’ RADARS

India to acquire the latest “x-band” radars that have an astonishing 4,600-km range to pick out missiles and airborne objects

PIPAVAV BAGS VESSEL CONTRACT Navy awards Pipavav Shipyard a mega contract to build offshore patrol vessels

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US, RUSSIA COMPETE FOR IAF DEAL The US and Russia will face off for the deal to supply the Indian Air Force crucial attack choppers after two major competitors from Europe pulled out citing technical reasons. The mainstay attack helicopters of the two countries will arrive in India within two months and will be put through several rounds of gruelling tests.

What has left many surprised is that Eurocopter’s Tiger and Agusta's A129 Mangusta have pulled out of the estimated $600 million contest and will not be coming for the field trials.

Sources said that Eurocopter decided not to take part months ago and did not respond to request for proposals issued by the IAF. Agusta, on the other hand, seems to have pulled out at the last minute after it assessed that the Mangusta would not be able to fulfill the requirements of the IAF field trials, which include hard landings in highaltitude areas.

The surprise exit of the two European choppers - considered to be highly com-

petitive - will give an advantage to Boeing’s AH-64D Apache Longbow, which will compete with the Russian Mi 28 attack chopper.

Incidentally, the procurement process for the attack helicopters was cancelled last year after two American companies opted out of the competition saying they did not get adequate time to seek permission from Washington to take part in the tender. This had led to protests by other competitors, notably the Europeans, who complained that the competition was stalled to tilt it in the favour of the American companies.

In May last year, the tender was reissued — the first defence tender to be taken out by the re-elected UPA government.

“We hope to begin trials within the next 60 days. We are offering the latest version of the Apache, the AH-64 D Longbow, and are confident that it is well suited for Indian requirements,” Vivek Lall, Vice-President and Country Head, Boeing Defense Space & Security, told an English Daily.

Russia is offering its latest-generation Mi 28 ‘Havoc’ helicopter, that was inducted by its armed forces in 2006.

USA HIKES DEFENCE SPEND THE USA, with a real-terms increase of $ 47 billion, accounts for 54 per cent of the world increase in military expenditure, according to a latest study. Of those countries for which data was available, 65 per cent increased their military spending in real terms in 2009. In an analysis by region, Asia and Oceania showed the fastest realterms increase with 8.9 per cent.

The study said that many countries were increasing public spending generally in 2009, as a way of boosting demand to combat the recession. Although military spending wasn't usually a major part of the economic stimulus packages, it wasn't cut either. The study also demonstrated that for major or intermediate powers such as the USA, China, Russia, India and Brazil military spending represents a long-term strategic choice which they are willing to make even in hard economic times. Worldwide military expenditure in 2009 totalled an estimated $ 1531 billion, according to new figures released recently by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). This represents an increase of 5.9 per cent in real terms compared to 2008 and an increase of 49 per cent since 2000.

PAK TO INCREASE DEFENCE BUDGET PAKISTAN'S BUDGET for the fiscal year 2010-2011, starting July 1, calls for 442.2 billion rupees, or $ 5.2 billion, for defence — an increase of at least 17 per cent over the previous year. That's out of a total budget for the next fiscal year that has been set at 3,259 billion rupees, or $ 38.3 billion.

According to Pakistan Finance Minister Abdul Hafeez Shaikh, the security situation in Pakistan has not yet been brought under control in spite of recent gains, and security forces need to know they have the support of lawmakers.

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July 2010

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g EUROJET'S DUAL-USE ENGINE EAGER TO join hands with the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and its associates in the development of India’s Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) TejasMark II, the Eurojet consortium is offering its engine that could be tweaked to work on its naval version.

It is prepared to offer two variants of the EJ200, bidding for the India’s LCA Mark-II which can be altered through a software change to suit the requirements for the naval version of the LCA. The Aeronautical Defence Agency (ADA), the nodal agency for the design and development of the LCA under the overall supervision of the DRDO, had sought a proposal from the

No extra deal for 5G plane RUSSIAN AIRCRAFT h o l d i n g Sukhoi has no plans to sign additional agreements creating a joint venture with its Indian partners in the production of a fifth-generation fighter.

Sukhoi head Mikhail Pogosyan had said ealier that an additional agreement would be signed specifying the Indian role in the project, but recently he pointed out that the Russian company hoped work would begin soon without any such deal. He said the joint work could be carried out under the current agreement.

Earlier, HAL was reported to be seeking a 25 per cent share in design and development in the project.

Russia has been developing its fifthgeneration fighter since the 1990s. The current prototype, known as the T-50, was designed by the Sukhoi design bureau and built at a plant in Komsomolsk-on-Amur, in Russia's Far East.

E J 2 0 0 and the American GE414 engine.

The order, initially for 99 engines with 10 of these in ready-to-use condition can be extended to additional 49 engines order.

There are over 1,500 EJ200 engines for the 700-plus Eurofighter Typhoon aircraft under contract to six nations.

The Eurofighter is also in the race for the 126 Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft that the IAF is acquiring.

User-trials for C-17 INDIA WILL take a final decision on the Boeing C-17 Globemaster III strategic airlifter after it undergoes user-trails by the Indian Air Force (IAF).

The trials should help speedily wrap up the deal for up to 10 aircraft as sought by the IAF. If the sale formalities and the various inter-governmental agreements are concluded over the next 10 to 12 months, then the aircraft should be in IAF service in the next three years.

The aircraft has been requested for sale by New Delhi under the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) programme under which the U.S. government will deal directly with the Indian government. The FMS route is considered a faster way of procurement than direct negotiations with the companies concerned.

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Boeing clinches FAA contract

BOEING HAS won a major research & development support contract worth up to $ 1.7 billion for the Next-Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) from the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration.

Prime focus areas of the contract include air traffic management modeling and simulation as well as the full integration of ground and airborne technologies and operations across all vehicle types, including commercial and military aircraft, general aviation, unmanned aerial systems, and rotorcraft. Boeing will perform work that will demonstrate NextGen procedures in real time on a large scale within the current air traffic system.

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‘Super Hercules’ nearing completion THE FIRST three C-130J Super Hercules — American four-engine turboprop military transport aircraft, designed for Indian Air Force — are in the final stage of development at the Lockheed Martin’s Marietta work centre.

In 2007, India had ordered six Lockheed Martin-built C-130Js worth around $ 1 billion, under an inter-governmental deal with the US. India will receive the first C-130J aircraft by February 2011, with three years of

initial support by the company. The aircraft will be based at the Hindon air base in Ghaziabad.

The aircraft, equipped with an Infrared Detection Set (IDS), will be able to perform precision low-level flying, airdrops and landing in blackout conditions. Self-protection systems and other features are included to ensure aircraft survivability in hostile air defence environments.

REFUELLING DEVICE FOR AIR SHOW LOCKHEED MARTIN will display an aerial refuelling device at the Farnborough Air Show in July which was developed under contract by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL). This makes it the first time an Indian company was involved in a high-technology sub-system development of the F-16 fighter aircraft.

The refuelling device, called probe-and-drogue refuelling employs a flexible hose that trails from the tanker aircraft. The drogue at the end of the hose connects to the receiving aircraft’s probe.

The US Navy, Marine Corps and the air forces of many other countries which deploy the F-16 use the probe/drogue system.

The successful development will open a global market for the India-developed probe and drogue system.

Acquiring ‘x-band’ radars SEEKING BETTER protection against ballistic missiles and airborne attacks launched by maverick terrorist organisations, India is to acquire the latest “x-band” radars that have an astonishing 4,600-km range to pick out missiles and airborne objects.

These will allow ground-based handlers to pick out even a six-inchwide airborne object from that distance and give the option of retaliation. The long-range spotting capacity will allow a reaction time that will be six times quicker than the present capacity of India.

The new acquisition will bring cities like Beijing, large parts of

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South East Asia and also countries in the entire Middle East within India’s viewing range. Present Indian capability is the Swordfish radar that can spot objects from 600-800 km away, which is under an upgrade to have a 1,500-km range. This is essentially a derivative of the Israeli Green pine radar that is now produced locally by the DRDO. It may be noted that each of the new x-band radars is expected to cost close to $ 600-700 million. Israel had requested the US to provide one and got it. This was to provide a defence against any perceived misadventure by Iran. Now India could either tie-up with the US or Israel.

July 2010

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g PIPAVAV TO DELIVER VESSELS

MISSILES WITH FRENCH HELP

AFTER MOVING ahead with similar projects with Russia and Israel, India is set to finalise a missile co-development project with France to manufacture a new range of Short Range Surface-to-Air Missiles (SRSAM) for the armed forces. The joint project, which will involve the DRDO and French missile manufacturer MBDA, is likely to be finalised within the next few months.

While India and France initiated the project in 2007, the project has taken more than three years to finalise. Sources say that the final terms of the agreement are in the process of being finalised. The next generation air defence missile, which will be inducted by the Army, Navy and Air Force, could also be made available for export.

The joint development is likely to take the course of the Indo-Russian Brahmos supersonic cruise missile project, which has already borne fruits for the DRDO. India has also recently signed a deal with Israel to co-develop a long-range surface-to-air missile.

The Indo-French missile, which has tentatively been named ‘Maitri’, will replace the ageing arsenal of Russian missiles that are currently being used by the armed forces to protect airfields and other vital installations. Sources said that the project could be signed as early as August this year to kickstart the manufacturing of the missile.

India and France are also close to signing an estimated $ 2.2 bn deal to modernise the fleet of Mirage 2000 fighters.

THE INDIAN Navy has awarded Pipavav Shipyard a Rs 2,600-crore contract to build offshore patrol vessels, a media report said.

The country’s largest ship-building facility in the private sector, Pipavav Shipyard, will build about five such vessels, each with a displacement of about 2,000 tonnes.

With the order from the Navy, the company’s order books have now swelled to over Rs 7,000 crore.

These vessels will be fitted with a 76 mm gun. They will be about 110 metres in length, will have a displacement of about 2,000 tonnes and will have a maximum speed of 20 knots.

NAVY PROCURING SURVEILLANCE PLANES LOOKING TO strengthen its surveillance capabilities and control over the maritime zone, the Indian Navy is planning to procure four aircraft carrier-based Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) planes.

At present, the Navy operates the carrier-borne Kamov-31, which were procured from Russia for early warning roles.

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Using AEW&C aircraft will help in expanding the area under surveillance near the area of their deployment, it is argued. The control over the area would also be increased as the AEW&C aircraft can detect enemy fighter and maritime patrol aircraft and direct the fighter planes attached with it towards them and take them out.

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NAVY TO COMMISSION FACs To provide more teeth to its coastal security and surveillance capabilities, the Indian Navy will induct two more water jet-propelled Fast Attack Craft (FACs) in Visakhapatnam by this month-end.

The two FACs, built by Kolkata-based Garden Reach Shipbuilders and Engineers (GRSE), will be based in the eastern coast to facilitate the Navy to carry out patrols and intercept rogue ships.

Named INS Cankaso and INS Kondul, two island territories of India, these would be the fifth and sixth FACs under the Car Nicobar class of craft that India began building in 2007.

US NAVY TO UPGRADE EW SYSTEM

OVER THE next 10 years, the US Navy will spend $ 640 million developing and purchasing upgrades for the SLQ-32 shipboard electronic warfare (EW) suite, according to a Forecast International report.

The SLQ-32 equips most warships in US Navy inventory. In addition, the Navy intends to equip future warships, including the DDG-1000, with the SLQ-32.

The US Navy has decided to upgrade the system in a spiral plan that includes four blocks. Each block will add capabilities such as electronic attack and infrared detection to the system, as well as improve the underlying technology behind the system.

The Navy has already inducted four FACs under this class — Car Nicobar, Chetlat, Korah Divh and Cheriyam — last year as part of the fast-track process following the Mumbai terror attacks, when Pakistani terrorists used a boat to reach the coast of the metropolis.

The Navy will have a total of 10 FACs under this class and they would be based all along the 7,500-km long coastline.

The vessels are capable of touching the speed of 35 knots propelled by three water jet propulsion engines producing 11,238 horse power.

CSC AWARDED ORDERS FROM US NAVY Computer Services Centre (CSC) has been awarded two task orders from the US Navy to provide computer simulation, engineering and model test support. Both the task orders have five-year periods of performance, and estimated total values of $ 24 million and $ 32 million.

The task orders were awarded under the SeaPort Enhanced indefinitedelivery/indefinite-quantity contract, which was originally awarded to CSC in April 2004. These task orders were awarded to CSC during the company’s fiscal 2010 fourth quarter that ended April 2, 2010.

ELTA AWARDED RADAR CONTRACTS ELTA SYSTEMS Ltd, an Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI’s) group subsidiary, has been awarded several contracts worth $ 33 million why foreign customers for the development and production of the EL/M-2022A Maritime Surveillance Radar (MSR) for Maritime Patrol Aircraft.

IAI/ELTA’s MSRs are recognised

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worldwide for their contribution to operational missions, including maritime warfare operations, surveillance and Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) patrol, anti-drug enforcement operations, coast-guard and fishery supervision, and search and rescue operations.

July 2010

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TANKS, BUT NO THANKS! With the increasingly unorthodox nature of modern warfare, most countries are going for improvement and systems upgradation of the main battle tank (MBT). Nevertheless, the golden days of tanks are over, writes ABHIJIT BHATTACHARYYA

I

NTRODUCED 93 YEARS ago at the battle of Ypres in 1917 at the fag end of the First World War, tanks (known as main battle tank/MBT) continue to adorn the stage and inventory of virtually all major armies of the world, being produced by 31 countries, at present. Surprisingly, however, only six countries effectively used their home built tanks during the Second World War. Understandably, it was the British-manufactured Matilda tank which first made its operational role felt in the deserts of North Africa in 1940-1943. Though slow and carrying only a 2-pounder main armament, Matilda tanks were the best available to the British General O'Connor' in the early part of the war which saw action with the 7th Armoured Division against the Axis force consisting of

the German and Italian troops.

In the epic tank battles of North Africa, the Italians used their own M-13 MBTs but were comprehensively beaten and made to surrender to General O'Connor, ceding 500 miles of territory and facing the ignominy of 130000 soldiers being taken as prisoners of war, thereby resulting in the total destruction of the Italian 10th Army in 1941.

In came the German 5th Light Division and the 15th Panzer Division under the command of Major General Erwin Rommel which were totally decimated at the battle of El Alamein in October, 1942. The African Corps of Hitler was destroyed in the desert and capitulated before the combined might of the 8th and 21st Army of Field Marshal Barnard Montgomery who emerged victorious under the overall strategic guidance and

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leadership of Churchill.

Subsequently, however, the Germanmade Tiger I and Panzer VI Tiger MBT scripted perhaps the most memorable of all tank battles in the history of warfare on two fronts — Kharkov and Kursk (1943).

Not to be left behind, the Russians too came up with their home made T-34 MBT, which was tough and reliable, moving into action by making the best use of terrain to cover the advance toward German positions. The T-34 was simple, easy to produce, mechanically sound and arguably the best all-round tank of the Second World War. Thus, by the time of the impending German attack on Kursk, the Soviets were fully prepared with 13,00,000 men and 3600 tank waiting to take on 8,00,000 men and 2700 tanks of the German Army.

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Sixty-five years have passed since the end of the Second World War but nothing like those spectacular long-drawn, mass formation tank battles have ever been fought. Yet, tanks are still produced, poured and procured by most of the armies transcending national barriers.

The accompanying table, as gleaned from Military Balance 2010 (published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, London), would show that out of the 166 nations that possess armed forces, 125 nations have tanks of various types and make in their military inventories.

The most revealing feature of the table is that the main producer-cum-distributors of MBT to the contemporary arms bazaar are only five; France, Germany, Russia, UK and USA — the total number of 31 countries producing tanks notwithstanding.

In the second rung of tank suppliers, stand Italy and China, the latter steadily stepping into the shoes of the former USSR which used to cultivate friends amongst developing nations of the third world AfroAsian and Latin American field by supplying T-34, T-54, T-55, T-59, T-62 and PT-76 light tanks at a hugely concessional rate with Russian experts and maintenance men of the machines standing “on call�.

In the third category of tank manufacturers lie Argentina, India, Iran, Jordan, Japan, South Korea, Pakistan and South Africa which have managed, or at least trying to manage, to induct the home-grown tank technology into their own armed forces. In this venture, after along gestation period, India's Arjun suddenly appears to be doing well. In fact, the recent one-on-one extreme heat and dust environment in the desert of

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Rajasthan, the competition between the Arjun and the Russian T-90 brought back to the fore the oft-suspected decline in the quality of Russian technology owing to mass migration of Moscow technologists seeking dollar in the greener pastures of London, New York Paris. In essence, the success of Arjun is the success of the Indian enterprise till proved to the contrary by further test and trial of the tanks in trying conditions. Thus, referred to as the state-of-art MBT, a limited of 124 Arjun have already been inducted into the tank regiments, but import of Russian/Ukrainian tanks is still high on preferred agenda of the Indian army.

Although for most armies around the world, armoured fighting vehicle (AFV) fleets constitute the backbone of their offensive combat capability, in many cases nations are struggling to keep and maintain their AFV July 2010

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TANK USERS & THEIR INVENTORY

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S. NO.

USER COUNTRY

TYPE OF TANK

NUMBERS

MANUFACTURER COUNTRY

5850

USA

637 1385 4503 386

France Germany Germany & USA U.K.

2988

Russia

23000

Russia & Ukraine

NORTH AMERICA 1.

USA

Abrams EUROPE (NATO)

2.

3.

4.

5.

France Germany Turkey U.K.

Leclerc, AMX-30 Leopard Leopard, M-60, M-48 Challenger, Chieftain EUROPE (NON-NATO)

6.

Ukraine

T-80, T-64, T-72, T-55 RUSSIA

7.

Russia

T-90, T-80, T-72, T-64, T-62

WEST ASIA AND NORTH AFRICA 8.

Egypt

9.

Iran

10.

11.

Iraq Israel

12.

Libya

13.

Saudi Arabia

14.

Syria

Abrams, M-60, T-62, T-54, T-55 Zulfiqar, T-72, M-60, T-62, Chieftain T-72, T-55 Merkava, M-60, Centurion, M-48 T-90, T-72, T-62, T-54, T-55 Abrams, AMX-30, M-60 T-72, T-62, T-55

3723

USA & Russia

1613

2205

Iran, USA, Russia, UK. Russia Israel, USA & UK Russia

910

USA, France

4950

Russia

149 3501

CENTRAL AND SOUTH ASIA 15.

India

16.

17.

Kazakhstan Pakistan

T-90, T-72, T-55, Vijayanta, Arjun T-72 A1-Khalid, T-80, T-69, T-85, T-59, T-54/55, M-48

4047

Russia, India

980 2461

Russia Pakistan, Ukraine, Russia

EAST ASIA AND AUSTRALASIA 18.

China

19.

Korea (North)

20.

Korea (South)

T-96, T-88, T-98, T-79, T-59 T-34, T-54, T-55, T-59, T-62, PT-76 Type 88 K1, T-80, M-47, M-48

11550

Russia & China

4060

Russia

2300

Korea & USA

167

South Africa

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA 21.

South Africa

Olifant

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VULNERABLE TO ATTACK: Tank is an easier target for unconventional enemy fire assets owing to ongoing financial crisis coupled with shrinking budget, high cost of production, procurement and modernisation and an equally shrinking market born out of other areas of government having higher priorities on the available funding.

On top of all these, however, happens to be the receding possibility of all-out tank warfare across the globe. In fact, post-Second World War except the Soviet operation in Afghanistan and the US enterprise in Korea (1950), Kuwait (1991) and Iraq (2003) there has hardly been intensive tank warfare in any combat theatre.

Even in Indian context, the extensive use of tank in war has been only twice, during 1965 Indo-Pak conflict at Khem Karan, Punjab and again in 1971. The other wars and skirmishes of India with Pakistan in 1947-48 (Kashmir), 1999 (Kargil) and China in 1962 virtually saw no major tank movement and manoeuvre against the adversaries.

The contemporary 21st century feature of main battle tank’s operational role, however, appears to be changing with the increasingly unorthodox and unconventional variety of warfare. Thus, whereas in the past the main role of the main battle tank was to carry out offensive and defensive operations during high-intensity military operations, recent experience of the British Army, US tank regiments and Marine Corps in Iraq has clearly demonstrated that the MBT is also highly effective in the urban operations in the directfire support role of dismounted infantry. Iraq war apart, the Israeli Army too has in recent times deployed its heavy Merkava tanks to

deal with the Palestinians and other insurgents in urban areas around Gaza and Ramallah.

Understandably, therefore, the tank manufacturers have now started developing, often with the active assistance of the user, customised enhancements to enable the tank to be more effective during urban operations.

However, there are difficulties here as war in urban land often is a war in the midst of nonmilitary and civilian population who may not possess conventional lethal weapons but may use improvised explosive devices to cripple and restrict the use of a fifty-tonne steelarmoured car, the most vulnerable part of which is the caterpillar. Hence the German, British and Americans are going for improvement programme pertaining to the defensive protection gear of the tank. Thus, most countries in Europe despite having downsized their tank fleets following the end of the Cold War are still procuring new type of vehicles with new devices and systems upgradation.

Jane’s Armour and Artillery’s perceptive observation continues to be valid when it says: “While the MBT was originally developed for high-intensity military operations, the recent experiences in Afghanistan too have once again demonstrated that the MBT has a vital role to play in all aspects of military operations.” The present problem, however, is the troop survivability in the war zone of diverse range of threats. Though loss of men during hostility is always a matter of deep regret, for some western countries with decreasing human resources, it can lead to serious social turmoil and political ramifica-

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tions. The 21st century Afghan war is an acid test for future MBTs as the experience leads the manufacturers to “safety-first” design thereof. “Provide the occupants with a high level of protection against some types of threat weapons” especially those which are likely to be used by the guerrilla warriors in the Afghan terrain. Understandably, therefore, for the Americans it is the 3200 MRAP (mine resistant ambush protection) armoured vehicles that happen to be their essential and standard mobile platform to counter the high-intensity counter-insurgency operators in the “badlands” of Afghanistan.

Thus, the three main characteristics of mobility, fire power and protection are often interchanging in accordance with the priority of the users. Israel's experience makes its Merkava — perhaps the heaviest and slowest of all tanks owing to the peculiar need of enhanced protection and increased fire power of the tanks operations in a limited space in urban-infested areas. The Russian T-34 tanks of the Second World War had to be prepared for a long cross-country manoeuvring owing to the vastness of the Russo-German frontier in 1942-1943. In South Asia, Indian Arjun tank's power-to-weight ratio is considered inferior to Pakistan-built Al Khalid because of Indian emphasis on firepower and armour protection thereby making it heavier and slower to operate. Pakistan, however, seems to prefer quicker movement of its tank fleet to change position with comparatively lesser protective device as the basic Pakistani philosophy has developed towards resorting to fire, forget and fall back tactics.

Nevertheless, tank today certainly is more vulnerable and easier target for unconventional enemy fire than ever before. It can be immobilised by land mines, improvised explosive devices and suicide bombers. It can also be assaulted from the helicopter gunship and surface-to-surface as well as air-to-surface missiles and everyday things are becoming more difficult owing to changed situation of conventional warfare. Nations are still building, operating and selling tanks no doubt. But for how long? That is the interesting question, thereby making this author think that perhaps the golden days of tanks are over. Little wonder, therefore, that while “MBT developments in western Europe have come to a virtual halt”, Asians (like China, Japan, India and South Korea) continue to develop at a very rapid pace. One dare suggest that perhaps tank on its own will no longer see the likes of the epic battles fought during the Second World War or not even the repeat of a Khem Karan.

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INJECTING FIRE Artillery modernisation needs a major push to invest the Indian Army with potent munitions, feels GURMEET KANWAL

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I

n a future conventional war that will be fought under the nuclear shadow, the ability to manoeuvre with large tank columns and armoured personnel carriers will be extremely limited due to the need to avoid crossing the adversary's nuclear red lines. This restriction will lead to much greater emphasis being placed on firepower to achieve the desired military aims and objectives. Hence, it is imperative that artillery modernisation is undertaken with alacrity so as to generate firepower asymmetries on the future battlefield.

The last major acquisition of towed gunhowitzers was that of about 400 pieces of 39calibre 155mm FH-77B howitzers with a range of 30 km from Bofors of Sweden in the mid-1980s. This gun had proved its mettle in the Kargil conflict. After two decades of neglect during which the 100 mm and 122 mm field guns of Russian origin and the indigenously developed and manufactured 75/24 Indian Mountain Gun joined the long list of equipment bordering on obsolescence but still in service with the Army, tenders were floated and trials were held for a 52-calibre 155 mm gun to replace all field and medium guns. After a long spell of keeping the powder dry, action on modernisation of the Indian artillery is livening up once again. Beginning in January 2008, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) issued three global tenders for 155mm guns and howitzers for the mountains, the plains and self-propelled guns for the deserts. Summer and winter trials were expected to be held over the next one year and it was anticipated that contracts would be awarded as early as the first half of 2010. However, none of the manufacturers have as yet been invited for trials.

Just when a contract for 120 guns on tank tracks and 180 wheeled self-propelled (SP) 155 mm guns was about to be concluded after years of protracted trials, South African arms manufacturer Denel, a leading contender for the contract, was alleged to have been involved in a corruption scam in an earlier deal for anti-material rifles (AMRs).

The other two howitzers in contention, from Soltam of Israel and BAE (Bofors) of Sweden reportedly did not meet the laid-down criteria and Army HQ recommended fresh trials, setting the programme back at least three to four years. Another bone of contention was that the howitzers that had been offered were technology demonstration models and not guns that were in actual service with the home country armies.

The probability of the next conventional war breaking out in the mountains is far higher than that of a war in the plains. With

THE PROBABILITY OF THE NEXT CONVENTIONAL WAR BREAKING OUT IN THE MOUNTAINS IS FAR HIGHER THAN THAT OF A WAR IN THE PLAINS.

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this in view, the artillery recently conceptualised a requirement for a light-weight towed howitzer of 155 mm calibre for employment in the mountains. Neither the present Bofors howitzer nor its 52-calibre replacement will be capable of effective operations in the mountains. A light-weight 39 or 45-calibre 155 mm howitzer weighing less than 5,000 kg, with a light but adequately powered prime mover is ideal for the mountains. The gun-train should be capable of negotiating sharp road bends without the need to unhook the gun from the prime mover. In January 2008, the MoD floated a Request for Proposal (RfP) for 140 pieces of ultra-light 39calibre 155 mm towed howitzers for use by the Indian Army's mountain formations.

Presumably, these howitzers will also be employed by the army's rapid reaction divisions — as and when these are raised — as these howitzers will be easy to transport by air.

About 140 howitzers will be adequate to equip seven medium artillery regiments and will cost approximately Rs 3,000 crore. The RfP was reportedly issued to BAE Systems (which now owns Bofors) for the M777 howitzer claimed to be the lightest in the world at under 4,220 kg, and to Singapore Technologies for the Pegasus SLWH. However, in June 2009, Singapore Technologies, whose light howitzer was slated to undergo field trials, was blacklisted for its suspected involvement in another scam. The government is now reported to have finalised a government-to-government deal with the US for 145 M777A1 ultralight howitzers through the foreign military sales (FMS) route.

The MoD has also floated a global tender for the purchase of 400 155 mm 52 calibre towed artillery guns for the Army, to be followed by indigenous manufacture of another 1,100 howitzers, in a project worth a whopping Rs 8,000 crore. The RfP was issued to eight prospective bidders including BAE, General Dynamics, Nexter (France), Rhinemetall (Germany) and Samsung (South Korea). An RfP has also been issued for 180 wheeled selfpropelled 155 mm guns for around Rs 4,700 crore for employment by mechanised forces in the plains and semi-desert sectors.

Since the Bofors 155 mm Howitzer was introduced into service, the indigenously designed and manufactured 105 mm Indian Field Gun (IFG) and its (not so) light version, the Light Field Gun (LFG), have also joined the list of guns and howitzers heading for obsolescence. Approximately 180 pieces of 130 mm M46 Russian medium guns have been successfully “up-gunned” to 155 mm calibre with ordnance supplied by Soltam of Israel. The new barrel length of 45-calibres has July 2010

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AUGMENTING ARSENAL: Efforts are underway to add ballistic as well as cruise missiles to the artillery’s weaponry enhanced the range of the gun to about 40 km with extended range ammunition.

There has been notable progress on the rocket artillery front. A contract for the acquisition of two regiments of the 12-tube, 300mm Smerch multi-barrel rocket launcher (MBRL) system with 90-km range was signed with Russia's Rosoboronexport in early 2006 and the equipment has since been received. This weapon system is a major boost for the longrange firepower capabilities of the Army. If this weapon system had been available during the Kargil conflict, Pakistan's brigade HQ and forward airfield at Skardu and other targets deep inside PoK could have been hit with impunity.

Extended range (ER) rockets are being introduced for the 122 mm Grad MBRL of Russian origin which has been in service for over three decades. The ER rockets will enhance the weapon system's range from 22 to about 40 km. A contract worth Rs 5,000 crore has also been signed for the serial production of the Pinaka MBRL weapon system, another DRDO project plagued by time delays and completed with help from Larsen and Toubro and Tatas.

The Pinaka rockets will have an approximate range of 37 km.

Counter-bombardment (US term counterfire) capability is also being upgraded, but at a slow pace. At least about 40 to 50 weapon locating radars (WLRs) are required for effective counter-bombardment, especially in the plains, but only a dozen have been procured so far. In addition to the 12 AN-TPQ 37 Firefinder WLRs acquired from Raytheon, USA, under a 2002 contract worth US$ 200 million, Bharat Electronics Limited is reported to be

assembling 28 WLRs. These radars will be based on both indigenous and imported components and are likely to be approved for introduction into service after extensive trials that are ongoing. The radar is expected to match the capabilities of the Firefinder system and will have a detection range of about 40 km. The indigenous sound ranging system for locating the positions of enemy guns based on the sound of their firing does not appear to be making worthwhile progress and may be shelved in favour of an imported system. In fact, it needs to be considered whether this relic of the two World Wars, that is rather cumbersome to deploy and maintain, deserves a silent burial as gun and mortar locating radars now provide accurate locations of enemy guns and mortars.

The modernisation plans of tube artillery alone are likely to cost Rs 13,000 crore at FY 2008-09 prices. The major acquisitions will be of initial lots of 400 towed howitzers of 155 mm calibre, with a barrel length of 52calibres, costing about Rs 4,000 crore, 140 ultra-light weight 155 mm towed howitzers, with a barrel length of 39-calibres, costing Rs 3,000 crore and 180 SP 155 mm howitzers costing Rs 5,000 crore. The "Shakti" project for command and control systems for the artillery, earlier called Artillery Combat Command and Control System (ACCCS), has passed user trials and is now being fielded extensively in the plains. Gradually it will be fielded up to the corps level and the two artillery divisions will be equipped with it.

Efforts are also underway to add ballistic as well as cruise missiles to the artillery arsenal.

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The BrahMos supersonic cruise missile (Mach 2.8 to 3), with a precision strike capability, very high kill energy and range of 290 km, is being inducted into the army. A ceremonial induction function of the Block-I version was held in July 2007. Since then, the Block-II version has successfully completed trials. It is a versatile missile, which can be launched from TATRA mobile-launchers and silos on land, aircraft and ships and, perhaps in future, also from submarines. Fifty BrahMos missiles are expected to be produced every year. Efforts are afoot to further increase its strike range. BrahMos Aerospace has orders worth Rs 3,500 crore from the Army and the Navy, which has opted for the anti-ship as well as the Land Attack Cruise Missile (LACM) versions. These terrain hugging missiles are virtually immune to counter measures due to their high speed and very low radar cross section and are far superior to sub-sonic cruise missiles like Pakistan's Babur. Chile, Kuwait, Malaysia and South Africa have shown interest in acquiring this missile.

Artillery modernisation must be given a major boost so that the Army gets the firepower that it needs. In conjunction with aerially delivered firepower, the artillery is the only combat arm that can cause degradation and destruction and ultimately break the enemy's will to fight. Any further delay in the implementation of artillery modernisation plans will be detrimental to national security interests.

(The writer is Director, Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS), New Delhi.)

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REVAMPING INTELLIGENCE

The 26/11 Mumbai terrorist attack exposed gaping holes in Indian intelligence collection, distribution and action. It is high time the Indian agencies learnt right lessons from the credible and effective global intelligence networks of important world powers, writes BHASKAR ROY

T

HE CRITICALITY of intelligence is of great importance for a government and even for the modern world’s terrorist organisations.

Intelligence is the only “game” which is not played by the rules. In fact, its antiquity dates back even before the world’s “oldest profession”. Knowledge and information lead to power, and no one willingly gives information about himself or the entity he represents without sound reason. Hence, intelligence collection is a dark world where no quarter is given, and none asked for.

One may divide intelligence into three broad segments: passive intelligence, active intelligence and aggressive intelligence. Passive intelligence collection mainly involves picking up information from the media, websites and blogs all over the world. One may be surprised to know that almost 90 per cent of the required information is available in the media, especially media which is not easily accessible. This information has to be collected bit by bit, analysed and then put up to the respective policymaker. Intelligence is basically processed information.

Active intelligence covers information collected through an agent raised in the target country. Traditionally, most foreign intelligence agencies have focused on sensitive institutions in the target country. This involves military information, strategic information, policy information etc. Noted American inves-

tigative journalist, Seymour Hersh, had written that the CIA had an agent in Prime Minister Morarji Desai’s office. Desai threatened to sue Hersh for propagating false information, slander and libel. Hersh stood his ground and, finally, Desai backed down.

Just as an interesting aside, holier-thanthou political leaders can be the worst enemies of their intelligence agencies and countries. It is said that Morarji Desai as Prime Minister boasted to Pakistani President Zia-ulHuq that RAW had a source in Pakistan’s nuclear establishment. That was the end of the agent and information collection in Pakistan’s nuclear weapons development. History is replete with example of how political leaders messed with intelligence reports leading to severe consequences. The period leading to World War-II is an example also of uninitiated decisions by European powers, especially UK. Human intelligence (Humint) collection is something that has and will remain, enduring.

Man is superior to machines. A human agent is the only source that can enter a space where no technological methods can enter. For example, the US technological intelligence (techint) — satellite surveillance, interception of communication (comint) and cyber/computer penetration (cyber ops) — did not give the Americans advanced information on India’s May 1998 nuclear tests. They lacked a human source in the right place.

The small group of Indian scientists who

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were in charge of the project knew how to beat techint. One of them had spent eleven years with an Indian intelligence agency.

Nevertheless, the broad generic umbrella of techint has become a major weapon of intelligence, because it now includes technological warfare conducted remotely. In the last few years, sensitive Indian cyber sites and repositories have come under severe attack from abroad. Most of the attacks have been traced back to China, but there may be other countries involved too.

In the face of rising cyber warfare, India’s cyber capabilities in these sphere remain way behind the leading countries namely the USA, Russia and China. Even small countries like Estonia and Georgia are surging ahead in this area.

Cyber intelligence/warfare, which comes July 2010

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TIANANMEN SQUARE: The 1989 students uprising was backed by American intelligence under aggressive intelligence category, will become a major, if not critical weapon in coming wars. The boundary between cyber intelligence and cyber warfare is getting increasingly blurred. To plant a Trojan or remotely controlled device in a target country’s sensitive and critical establishment, human intelligence is still required. This is operated through the agents of an enemy country in a target country’s critical assets through the cover of commercial projects.

China’s state-owned telecommunication companies which are known to be involved with state security planning are suspected to have tried to plant such Trojans, or as the Chinese call “Assassin’s mace” weapons in India. It is learnt that almost all cell phone conversations based at least with one end in Delhi, go

abroad through certain windows.

Yet, in this globalised world, it is very difficult to close the doors on foreign investments and entry of foreign entities. There are two ways to counter this to an extent. One, block all foreign involvement in critical electronic areas.

This can be done only when fully indigenous products are available. But India’s technical capability lacks here. Even when contracts are given to an Indian company, they go to China for the hardware and software.

The other is reduce developments till Indian companies, which are security cleared, are able to deliver. This is not acceptable either.

Even the US classified systems have been penetrated by foreign cyber agents. The only answer is to take each case of foreign involvement individually, and deal accordingly.

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The urgent need for the government is to set up a cyber command which can enlist the security agencies, defence, other sensitive ministries along with the private sector and specialised academics to form a system. At the moment, there are too many turf wars between agencies, resulting in major roadblocks to expertise development. Can these competitive differences be bridged?

The weakness, or rather blank space, among Indian intelligence agencies is psychological warfare. Asymmetric warfare is very far off. These operations need patience, hard work, and knowledge of what the Indian interests are. Unfortunately, Indian intelligence mandarins of the day are not professional. But they alone cannot be blamed. To get a comparative view, Indian intelligence actions in these areas may be seen against initiatives taken by the USA, Russia and China.

The US unveiled its psychological/media operations around 1954 known as the “Peaceful Evolution". It was mainly targeted against the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact countries of Eastern Europe. The special target was to weaken communism and break the hold of Moscow on half of Europe and elsewhere in Asia, eat away Soviet influence in the Middle East and West Asia/North Africa, and destroy the Soviet Union’s superpower status.

Among the known US instruments used were Radio Liberty and Radio Free Asia, and penetration of dissidents. Today, they continue with Radio Free Tibet to support the Tibet autonomous movement, with the participation of student community.

Following the 1989 students uprising in Beijing, which was put down ruthlessly by the Chinese government, China’s paramount leader Deng Xiaoping told an African interlocutor that the student rebellion was initiated by America’s “Peaceful Evolution” operations.

There are other American instruments too, including the Congress-mandated body, the National Endowment for Democracy (NED).

The “colour revolutions” in former Soviet States are reported to have been funded by covert Western financial assistance. These are just examples.

In the Soviet Union days, the KGB had a special department known as “Active Measures".

The work of this department was to plant subtle misinformation in mainly western newspapers, but do a great deal of work in developing countries which was more effective.

The Chinese operations can be divided into forthright and covert. In direct propaganda, the official Chinese media and think tanks use a barrage of incessant charges to claim that China is always right and the interlocutors are wrong. The propaganda has no time July 2010

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HUMAN INTELLIGENCE (HUMINT) COLLECTION IS SOMETHING THAT HAS AND WILL REMAIN, ENDURING. MAN IS SUPERIOR TO MACHINES

limit and, surprisingly, it has worked, forcing interlocutors to readjust their stands.

The overseas Chinese have been a great asset for Beijing, especially because Chinese who have emigrated for generations continue with their allegiance to the motherland, working for the “Central Kingdom” to ultimately rule the world. The “Committee of Hundred”, a group of influential Chinese émigrés in the United States, takes directions from the Chinese Embassy in Washington to fight on behalf of China. In South East Asia, where the overseas Chinese control almost 80 per cent of the economy in some countries like Thailand and Malaysia, they are suspected to be Chinese Trojans. Beijing wields significant influence through the ethnic Chinese population.

There is no evidence that Indian agencies and ministries concerned have even remotely addressed this very important operation. It is not that they have no charter. They have. But there intelligence heads have even tried to obliterate this charter. This only reflects the quality of intelligence heads promoted to their positions through political and family connections and not competence.

As in many other countries, including the USA, the rivalry between the internal and external agencies i.e. the Intelligence Bureau (IB) and Research Analysis Wing (RAW) is well known. This has led to many avoidable embarrassments and impediments in the functioning of one or the other organisation. There are signs, however, that things are improving with better leadership at the ministerial level.

P. Chidambaram has decided to be hands on Minister. But he should desist from trying to grab more turf. All agencies cannot be directly under one ministry. There will be conflict of interest. What the Home Ministry should do is to be the repository of all intelligence inputs connected with national security. For example, the mandate of RAW is not only counter-terrorism; its charter includes a vast array of areas from strategic and political inputs to foreign military, economic and intelligence information.

The National Intelligence Agency (NIA) created by Chidambaram is new and must be given time to grow roots. But what the NIA needs is total co-operation from all other agencies including those dealing with technical intelligence. Here, there can be no favourites and sycophancy, a malaise that the Indian establishment suffers from.

The Indian intelligence suffers from a negative public impression because of media reporting. Print media headlines howl intelligence failure at every instance of an incident.

The electronic media has been more destruc-

THE URGENT NEED FOR THE GOVERNMENT OF INDIA IS TO SET UP A CYBER COMMAND WHICH CAN ENLIST THE SECURITY AGENCIES, DEFENCE, OTHER SENSITIVE MINISTRIES ALONG WITH THE PRIVATE SECTOR AND SPECIALISED ACADEMICS

HOME MINISTER P CHIDAMBARAM: Acutely aware of reforming the country’s intelligence network tive, because many a time its coverage is based on uncorroborated information.

Intelligence agencies do not have spokespersons like political parties. Given the number of terrorist incidents, the number of those prevented is far larger. But the agencies cannot talk about them because it will reveal tactics, methodology and people involved. Would the media and public like to identify a particular intelligence officer, say in Kashmir, who may have penetrated some terrorist organisation?

An intelligence officer has special characteristics. He or she can come from any government of India service or from the open market. Foreign intelligence work, that is RAW, is particularly special and recruits must have very special traits which can help them mould into any situation naturally. It is not that only Indian Police Service (IPS) officers are fit for RAW, especially when they are brought in at the Joint Secretary level. The officer would have spent his formative years in a different discipline altogether. When he joins RAW at a senior level he is all at sea, but has mentors outside the organisation to sustain him.

If the government wants to really rejuvenate the intelligence agencies it must start with personnel and promotional review. It is the people who make an organisation and not the other way round.

Even then, all is not lost yet. In every organisation the minority usually carries the inept majority. But if the ratio becomes acute, there is a major cause to worry. Inept officers usually favour inept underlings, because an intelligent underline hurts their ego. This is not speaking lightly. It is absolutely true.

(The writer is a retired civil servant and strategic analyst)

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MOD, GOI

MADAM COMMANDER ?

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The issue of women’s induction into all streams of defence forces requires a holistic and dispassionate view as defence potential of the armed forces cannot be trifled as a matter of equality of sexes or women’s empowerment. The armed forces need the fittest person to perform assigned tasks, and it could be a man or a woman, MRINAL SUMAN points out

T

HE RECENT decision of the Indian Air Force to grant permanent commission (PC) to 22 short service commission (SSC) women officers has brought the issue of women's standing in the armed forces into renewed focus. The Air Force has described the sanction as a one-time exception, in compliance with the orders of the Delhi High Court. The court in its ruling of 12 March 2010 had held the denial of PC to the applicant officers to be discriminatory as male SSC officers were offered PC. Interestingly, to escape further charges of gender discrimination, the Air Force decided in 2007 not to offer PC to any SSC officer — male or female. The Army is reportedly studying the said court orders to decide on the next course of action.

The mess in which the armed forces find themselves is of their own making. The decision to induct women was taken in a totally cavalier, slapdash and hasty manner, without studying the probable long-term implications of multiple issues involved and their effect on the services. The decision was neither needbased nor well thought-through. The issue should have been examined in an objective and dispassionate manner. As the sole raison d'être for the constitution of the armed forces

NO RIGHTTHINKING INDIVIDUAL CAN ADVOCATE WOMEN'S INDUCTION AT THE COST OF THE FIGHTING POTENTIAL.

is to ensure security of the country, decisions that have a far-reaching effect on the combat potential of the armed forces should be taken with due diligence.

As has been the practice the world over, India should have considered the following four factors before determining the nature and extent of women's induction: a. Military's Role: What is the degree of involvement of a military in active combat duties? Countries with secure borders and peaceful environment can accommodate more women in their militaries and assign passive duties to them. On the other hand, militaries of countries facing hostile external and internal environment are hard pressed to find safe appointments for women. b. Level of Technology: Is the military technologically advanced enough to generate considerable requirement for highly skilled women for hightech non-combat support functions?

Low-tech militaries are always man-power intensive and depend on extensive physical ground effort, and hence do not lend themselves

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UPSC bars women officers in paramilitary forces WHILE THE debate on recruiting women officers in the armed forces goes on, the government has ruled out any women officer’s post for select paramilitary forces even as a significant number of women were recently recruited in lower ranks of some of the border-guarding forces.

The new notification issued by the Union Public Service Commission (UPSC), which recruits entry-level officers for central police forces, will make it impossible for any women officer to head the almost 2,000 young women personnel in the combat ranks of three of the border guarding forces.

The UPSC has notified that women applicants for these entry-level officer posts are ineligible for border-guarding forces of Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB), Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) and Border Security Force (BSF).

"Both males and females are eligible for CISF and CRPF. For SSB, BSF and ITBP only male candidates are eligible," the notification for recruitment of Assistant Commandants for the five para-military forces said on May 29.

Incidentally, the above mentioned forces started recruiting women constables for their active duties along borders for the first time since the last year but all the women battalions and companies are still commanded by male officers.

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PRESENT STATUS

INDIA IS STILL A SECOND-GENERATION TECHNOLOGY FORCE AND HAS VERY FEW HIGH-TECH JOBS WHERE TECHNICALLY-QUALIFIED WOMEN CAN BE GAINFULLY EMPLOYED.

ducive and rough for women.

When weighed against the above parameters, it is apparent that women can be assigned very limited role in the Indian defence forces.

India is still a second generation technology force and has very few high-tech jobs where technically qualified women can be gainfully employed. A major part of the Indian Army is deployed on combat duties in remote, inhospitable and uncongenial areas. Thus, Indian defence forces are man-power intensive needing physical ground effort. Only physically fit and tough troops can survive to deliver in India's hostile environment.

A recent review conducted by the British army concluded that women have neither the upper-body strength nor the physical resilience to withstand intensive combat. Tests on 2000 respondents found that women were eight times more likely than men to sustain injuries other than wounds in action. As regards Indian women, concerns have been expressed about their being highly prone to back problems, pelvic injuries and stress fractures. Although standards of physical fitness of women have been pegged at appallingly low levels, most women fail to clear them. For example, males are required to jump across a nine foot wide ditch with full equipment and personal weapon; women are unable to negotiate the prescribed five foot wide ditch.

It is often said that women officers help overcome the shortage of male officers. It is a mistaken belief. There is no shortage of male volunteers. As per the Union Public Service Commission report, there were 431 volunteers for each vacancy in the National Defence Academy in 2006-07. It is just that the services seek very exacting standards for males while the standard for the selection of women has

MOD, GOI

IT WAS in 1990 that a decision was taken to induct women into the noncombat wings of the armed forces.

Currently, 5,137 women officers serve in the armed forces. They include 4,101 in the Indian Army, 784 in IAF, and 252 in Indian Navy. This includes women granted Permanent Commission in the Army Medical Corps, the Army Dental Corps and their equivalents in the other two services as also in the Military Nursing Service.

Indian Army counts 2.44 per cent women in its ranks, the Indian Navy 3.0 per cent and the Indian Air Force 6.7 per cent. The tenure of women SSC officers has since been increased to 14 years.

The tenure of both women and men Short Service Commissioned (SSC) Officers is ten years extendable up to 14 years. Both women and men are inducted in the Short Service Commission in the Army. Women officers serving in the Army are entitled to the same benefits as available to similarlyplaced men officers.

Permanent Commission to SSC (Women) officers has been granted prospectively in Judge Advocate General (JAG) Department and Army Education Corps (AEC) of Army. Women officers in the Indian Army are not assigned to the combat arms. A study carried out by HQrs Integrated Defence Staff in 2006 on all aspects of employment of women officers in the armed forces, recommended exclusion of women officers from close combat roles.

Eligible women, who qualify various tests successfully, serve as Short Service Commissioned officers in the following branches of the armed forces.

ARMY: EME, Signals, Engineers, Army Education Corps, Army Ordnance Corps, Army Service Corps, Intelligence and Judge Advocate General's branch.

NAVY: All branches of the Navy (except submariners and divers).

AIR FORCE: Flying (transport aircraft and helicopters), Technical and Administration branches.

COAST-GUARD: All branches of the Coast Guard

to useful employment of women.

Social Milieu: Have the societal and cultural ethos reached a stage of maturity to facilitate integration of men and women to the desired levels of mutual comfort? It has been seen that traditional societies suffer from sexual prejudices and inhibit smooth induction of women in male-majority organisations. Indian society is passing through a phase of transition from traditionalism to modernity. d. Availability of Male Volunteers: What is the degree of shortage of suitable male volunteers? Some countries have to recruit women to make up deficiencies. The profession of arms is all about violence and brutality. Soldiers tend to acquire a streak of raw ruthlessness and coarseness. This makes the environment highly non-conc.

MATCHING WORLD STANDARDS: IAF women officers conversing with a foreign peer

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COMBATING WOMEN? ARGUMENT

COUNTER-ARGUMENT

Physiologically, women are weaker than men. Studies have shown how women have only approximately 50 to 70 per cent of the strength, stamina and muscle mass of the average male.

Due to these limitations, women face a higher degree of difficulty in carrying loads, route marches, running and other field activities that are essential for combat functions

The fact that women can become pregnant is hardly a valid reason to preclude women from combat assignments. In today's progressive world small families are the norm and request for maternity leave is not so frequent. Being in the family way is just another medical condition that renders one temporarily unfit and women do regain and resume prior levels of fitness and work. Once a child is born, child-rearing responsibilities are often shared, thanks to strong family ties and the relatively easy availability of domestic help unlike the situation in the West.

COUNTER-ARGUMENT SCALING NEW HEIGHTS: Women are assuming greater responsibilities in armed forces been kept at a pedestrian level.

As the first batch of women SSC officers had joined in 1992, India has 18 years of experience to benefit from the feedback. Regrettably, women in the Indian military suffer from low acceptance. Most commanders are reluctant to have women officer under their command as they cannot be assigned a number of tasks. Concern for their safety and dignity imposes additional administrative burden. Most are ready to do with the shortage of officers rather than have women in their units. Peer male officers resent women's presence as they have to undertake women's share of physical and night-duty tasks. As regards the troops, an informal survey revealed that 81 per cent of the soldiers questioned were skeptical about the competence of women officers to lead them in war.

Entry of women only as officers has also lowered the standing of service officers. Whereas officers earn the right to command troops by being better than them both physically and professionally, an impression has got conveyed to the environment that officers' duties are soft and even women can perform them. Whereas male officers take pride in leading their units from the front, women officers cannot even keep pace with the troops.

As regards SSC for women, it has been a totally shortsighted policy. Women normally gain commission at the age of 23 to 25 years. Within two to three years of their commission, they get married, mostly to colleague male officers. Every pregnancy means three years' exemption from physical activities — one year pre-natal and two years post-delivery. With the standard two-child norm, a woman officer remains physically inactive for close to six years. It implies that after the first post-commission tenure, a woman officer is rarely in a position to participate in field exercises and has to be exempted all out-door work. Thus the services gain little.

In Army there is a concept of field and peace postings.

Every officer looks forward to a good peace posting to be with his family and sort out family issues. But a large number of peace postings at junior and middle officers' levels are per-

Tests have shown that with adequate training most women can substantially increase their physical strength and be as strong as the average male.

Besides, the nature of combats has changed over the years. In earlier times, battlefields and fronts were limited and the weapon systems were simple with a visible reach. All soldiers were combatants and actively fought on the front. With the passage of time, growing technical innovations led to weapon systems becoming increasingly sophisticated with a capacity to choose and reach destinations. Applying these technologies does not require muscle power as such. Women are quite competent to handle the modern warfare.

ARGUMENT Presence of women in combat units affects cohesion. Interactions between men and women, often leads to irrational emotions and actions that could corrode bonding in a unit. Men tend to treat women differently from men and are more protective and considerate towards them. Such an attitude is considered detrimental in a combat environment where soldiers may be distracted from the primary mission of combat by a need to protect women soldiers.

ARGUMENT

COUNTER-ARGUMENT

There is also the aspect of physiological differences between men and women with regard to pregnancy, childbirth and rearing. Women are perceived to lose too much time and attention from their duty due to pregnancy and related responsibilities.

This poses challenges for commanders who have to prepare contingency plans and reassign personnel to make up for the shortfall.

For instance, an obscene amount of money goes into the making of a fighter pilot (Rs 8 crore for fighter pilot and Rs 3 crore for transport pilot). That is why no fighter pilot is relieved before working for 14 years (for transport pilot, it is 12 years). It is only after working that long that the government recovers the money spent on each pilot. So, it makes no sense to train a woman pilot who would take ten months off on maternity leave and then opt for easier roles in the name of child-rearing.

The issue is really a non-issue as there is no practical knowledge gleaned on the subject from lack of experience, studies or trials. Since there have been no women combat officers in Indian armed forces, the debate on this aspect remains restricted to the realms of theory.

ARGUMENT A woman Prisoner of War (POW) is the ultimate nightmare. The society or the country would not accept easily if a woman soldier is raped and killed by the enemy.

COUNTER-ARGUMENT Since the Armed Forces are a voluntary service, men and women who volunteer for the same willingly and consciously accept the risk of death or the possibility of capture, rape and torture.

It is an informed choice that they make in full knowledge of the associated professional hazards and is accepted in a similar spirit.

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EXPERIENCES ABROAD THE USA

ISRAEL

The United States is a pioneer and a trend-setter as regards induction of women in the services. There are around 200,000 American women on active duty in the US armed forces. They constitute nearly 20 per cent of its strength. However, prior to November 1975, if women became pregnant, they were given the option to terminate pregnancy or seek discharge. Ignorant of the ground realities, many supporters cite the example of the US to demand entry of women even in combat roles. Two commonly misunderstood aspects have been clarified below.

First, women in the US forces are forbidden to be placed in direct ground combat with enemy.

They may be assigned 'combat support' duties on voluntary basis. Although a large number of women have been deployed in Iraq and Afghanistan, their employment has been confined to support functions like medical, intelligence, logistic and traffic control duties. Although till the end of 2009, the US and allies had suffered a total of 4689 casualties, there has not been a single woman war casualty. The US has lost 19 female servicemen in Iraq to hostile activities like car bombs, IED blasts and helicopter crashes since the beginning of 2007, but there has been no combat casualty. It is simply because of the fact that no women are deployed in combat duties.

Secondly, contrary to the common impression, women are subjected to frequent indignities in the US services. Extent and nature of their sufferings can be gauged by visiting numerous websites where women soldiers exchange their experience and seek counseling to get over their trauma. Sexual harassment and assaults of women soldiers are known to be blatant and quite prevalent. When a sexual harassment hotline was set up at Aberdeen, it received 6,825 calls from women from all branches of the military in just two months.

Many women dread duty in a war zone. Several young women prefer to be declared 'absent without leave' due to their fears of sexual assaults. According to Miles Foundation, a non-profit organisation that provides service to victims of military violence, more than 500 women have complained of sexual assault in the forces since the beginning of Iraq war in 2003.

Degree of degradation is so acute that 'command rape' has come to be accepted as a common phenomenon in the military — a superior official, under the might of his command authority, can force a subordinate woman soldier to accede to his sexual demands. Many still recall the shameful Tailhook Incident of 1991, where naval aviators at their annual convention surrounded over 80 ladies including 14 women naval officers stripping them and assaulting them sexually. Subsequently, a number of senior naval officers were forced to retire.

Though Israel has conscription for women (as well as men), a large number of them are exempted for various reasons. Women are generally not allotted active battlefield duties. They serve in many technical and administrative posts to release men for active duty. Most women occupy lower and middle level appointments.

BRITAIN A major enlargement of women's role in the British armed forces took place in early 1990s. A number of new duties were assigned to them. Today, 71 per cent of all jobs in the Navy, 67 per cent in the Army and 96 per cent in the Air Force are tenable by women.

Women are primarily excluded from the duties which require battling enemy at close quarters.

Out of the total strength of 196,650 of the three services, women number 17,900 (3,670 officers and 14,230 other ranks). Thus they constitute 9.1 per cent of the total strength, 11.2 per cent of the officer cadre and 8.7 per cent of the other ranks.

Service-wise, the Navy has a women population of 9.4 per cent, the Army 7.1 per cent and the Air Force 11.9 per cent.

CANADA For Canadian women, it has been a long and slow struggle to be part of the armed forces. For over a hundred years, women were considered suitable only for nursing duties. However, things changed rapidly during the recent past and today women account for close to 13 per cent of the total strength of the Canadian forces.

GERMANY Though established in 1955, the Bundeswehr allowed women to join medical units and musical bands in 1975. It was only in 2001 that women won the right to join the Bundeswehr as soldiers.

Today, there are nearly 12,000 German women in uniform on voluntary basis as compulsory military service for women is banned by law. Women constitute almost 6 per cent of the total strength.

SOME OTHER COUNTRIES In Russia, women generally serve in nursing, communications and logistic support functions. According to some estimates, their number is close to 95,000. Slovenia became an independent state in 1971 and inducted women in its armed forces soon after. Presently, women account for 18 per cent of the total strength of the Slovenian Army.

Like all Islamic states, Pakistan does not permit women in the armed forces. It is feared that women would create distraction and cause disruption of internal order. There is also a great deal of concern for the safety of women from the organisational environment itself. (M.S.)

manently held by the women officers as they want to be with their children all the time and resent posting to field areas. Male officers thus get deprived of their due share and are made to suffer prolonged field tenures. It has become a sore point with many. They complain that women join the forces on the plank of equality of sexes but seek special dispensation and kid-glove treatment to escape hardships.

As regards women, many remain confused about the way they should conduct themselves. If they behave lady-like, their acceptance amongst male colleagues is low. On the other hand, their active participation in casual repartee carries the danger of their losing colleagues' respect. Additionally, many women officers are unsure of their identity — they want to be officers and yet be given the deference of service wives. It has been a cause for despair for many.

The present mess does not augur well for the armed forces and must be corrected boldly. It is time a holistic review is carried out of the whole issue to initiate corrective measures. No right-thinking individual can advocate women's induction at the cost of the fighting potential. That would be a detrimental step. As blinkered attitudes lead to extreme stances, decisions that impact the defence forces must be taken without allowing mindsets to get the better of well-evolved logic. Unfortunately, observers have taken stands that vary from advocating women's unrestricted entry into all streams of the armed forces to hardcore skeptics who consider the issue to be a ruinous publicity gimmick to flaunt sexual equality.

Some supporters have gone to ridiculous lengths to suggest aping of the Border Security Forces (BSF) to constitute an all women battalion.

They forget that the much-hyped BSF battalion is a 'frisking force' and not a fighting force. Its sole task is to search and screen women in border villages July 2010

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BECAUSE

There are CBs accredited by bodies not members of IAF There are CBs accredited by bodies not members of IAF Multi-Lateral arrangement for mutual recognition There are CBs accredited by members of IAF arrangement but not accredited for technical areas of your operations

Save yourself from all headaches Rely on NABCB accredited certificates For any information, contact NATIONAL ACCREDITION BOARD FOR CERTIFICATION BODIES (NABCB) Quality Council of India

NABCB

2nd Floor, Institution of Engineers Building, 2, Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg, New Delhi-110002, India Tel: +91-11-2337-8056/57, 9321,9260, Fax: +91-11-23379621, Email: nabcb@qcin.org

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AT PAR WITH THEIR MALE PEERS RARING TO COMMAND: (from L to R) NCC cadets participating in the annual Republic Day Camp; Air Chief Marshal P.V. Naik encouraging the cadets who wish to go across the border fence to cultivate their fields. Further, examples of the US, Naxalites/LTTE and Rani Jhansi are quoted. As regards the US, the accompanying box should be seen. Naxalites and LTTE are irregular and unconstitutional forces. They employ indoctrinated women and adolescent boys as suicide squads and human bombs against constitutionally established governments to vent their anger at the perceived injustice done to them.

Regular forces cannot be expected to follow suit. Rani Jhansi was undoubtedly a brave warrior. However, she is an exception in the long Indian history. Even she never recruited women to fight for her.

It is incorrect to replicate models of foreign countries. Every nation has to weigh its options against the backdrop of its operational imperatives and threat assessment. Nations like Canada and Australia can have women in much larger proportion as they do not have to contend with hostile borders and internal unrest. When required to send a contingent abroad, no woman is included in the fighting elements.

Finally, it must never be forgotten that the armed forces are meant to ensure security of

the country. They are not an employment generation scheme with quotas and reservations.

Terms like gender equality cannot be applied to the services — the armed forces need the fittest person to perform assigned tasks, and it could be a man or a woman. India should follow a graduated approach. As seen above, for the present, there are only a handful jobs that can be effectively undertaken by women.

There should be no SSC for women. For the grant of PC, in addition to the current list, women should also be considered for the Survey of India, Military Engineering Service Militarised Cadre and Director General Quality Assurance. In other words, women's expertise, talent and competence should be profitably utilised in areas which are totally non-combat in nature, do not require physical effort and do not entail command of troops. Defence potential of the armed forces is too serious a matter to be trifled as an issue of equality of sexes or women's empowerment. That can prove cataclysmic for the nation.

(The writer, a retired Major General, is Head, Defence Technical Assessment and Advisory Services Group, Confederation of Indian Industry)

IN A landmark ruling, the Delhi High Court on March 12 asked the government to treat women and men officers in the Army and Air Force at par while granting Permanent Commission, saying "greater sensitivity was required" while dealing with gender issues.

A division bench of justices Sanjay Kishan Kaul and M.C. Garg also ordered the reinstatement of all women Short Service Commission officers who had to retire after being refused Permanent Commission.

Short Service Commission officers, be they men or women, serve for a maximum of 14 years while male officers granted Permanent Commission can serve up to the age of 60, depending on the rank they rise to.

The latest court order came on a petition by over 50 women officers of the Indian Army and the Indian Air Force (IAF) who were denied Permanent Commission though they wanted to don the uniform for the rest of their working life.

The court said its ruling was applicable only to women recruited in the IAF and the Indian Army before 2006, when the Short Service Commission tenure went up from 10 to 14 years.

"The Permanent Commission shall be offered to them after completion of five years (of service). They would also be entitled to all consequential benefits such as promotion and other financial benefits," it said.

The court said women officers who had not attained the age of retirement available for Permanent Commissioned officers will "be reinstated in service and shall be granted all consequential benefits including promotion ... except for the pay and allowance for the period they have not been in service".

Wing Commander Rekha Aggrawal, who served in the IAF from 1995 to 2009, said: "I am very glad now. I will again join the office. I want to serve my nation."

"Our three-year-long battle has finally become fruitful. The court has finally understood the disparity that women officers in the Army face," Major Seema Singh said.

However, the court said it was not interfering with the "policy decision" to bar women from the combat wings.

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INTERNAL SECURITY

MAOISTS’ URBAN PLOT

CAN THEY SECURE OUR CITIES?

Unlike the US and UK, India is yet to realise the importance of police-public co-ordination in preventing terrorist attacks on leading urban centres...

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Makeover for paramilitary forces PARAMILITARY TROOPS are getting what they have asked for years — better equipment, better communication and better transport. The government has sanctioned procurement of armoured and bullet-proof vehicles besides arms valuing nearly Rs 300 crore. The Union Home Ministry has just sanctioned 119 TATA Light Armoured Troop Carriers (LATC) worth Rs 49.90 crore and 98 bullet proof Mahindra

Rakshaks and three of their LATCs at a cost of Rs 37.97 crore.The ministry has also approved procurement of night-vision devices for rifles besides automatic grenade launchers and grenades are also being bought from a Russian firm Rosoboron Export at a cost of Rs 22.95 crore.

Besides, the Home Ministry has given sanction to a number of modernisation programmes of paramilitary forces, including procurement of 59,000 light-weight bullet-proof jackets. CRPF (Central Reserve Police Force), BSF (Border Security Force), NSG (National Security Guard), and ITBP (Indo Tibetan Border Police) are being re-equipped at breakneck speed with new weapons, bulletproof jackets, riot gears and armoured vehicles.

VISA NORMS FOR PAK RELAXED THE MINISTRY of Home Affairs (MHA) has relaxed the norms for granting extension of long-term visa (LTV) to at least four categories of such people staying in India. Those who qualify for getting exemption from the provisions of Rule 3 of the Passport (Entry into India) Act, 1920, include members of minority communities like Hindus and Sikhs in

Pakistan; Pakistani women married to Indian nationals and staying in India; Indian women married to Pakistani nationals and returning due to widowhood/divorce and having no male member to support them in Pakistan; and cases involving extreme compassion.

The Home Ministry has been receiving a large number

Solar missiles in J&K

FOR THE first time in 20 years, police recently recovered two solar-activated missiles, capable of hitting their target within four kilometres, in Kupwara district. The missiles were fitted on a tree in the forest to target a nearby security installation. The weapon weighs about 4 kg, which is even lighter than an AK 47 rifle, and is about four feet in length. The missile gets activated by sunlight to hit the target.

It is four feet long and can fire within 3 to 4 km radius. The missiles recovered bear imprints in Chinese and Russian languages, suggesting the countries of their manufacture.

of references from such Pakistani nationals staying in various States where their passports had expired and they were not able to renew it. Pakistan is issuing computerised national identity cards to its nationals and extends the validity of passports only for those who possess such cards.

Security rules for telecom THE DEPARTMENT of Telecommunications (DoT) and the MHA are together working out a plan to incorporate certain rules for remote access, software codes and other security standards in

the contractual agreement between telecom equipment vendors and mobile service providers. The new clauses would take care of the security concerns raised by intelligence agencies and the home ministry.

It would also have certain security standards specified by lawenforcement agencies.

Chinese telecom equipment firms Huawei and ZTE are facing tough times in India due to security concerns raised by the home ministry over their equipment.

While the government maintains that there has been no ban on Chinese firms, no order of these firms has been cleared by DoT for the past six months, on the pretext of security clearance.

Meanwhile, as an interim arrangement, DoT would come out with a list of some global certifying agencies, from where service providers would be able to test and certify their equipment. This would resolve the problem until DoT sets up its own testing and certifying lab.

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The project for setting up the lab and developing the software for testing has already been started but is likely to take another one to two years to be completed.

DoT had, last December, made it mandatory for all mobile telecom service companies to get security clearance for equipment before placing any order with vendors. The mobile companies are against banning Chinese telecom equipment as these are lowpriced compared to those from other global vendors.

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JUHU AIRPORT UNDER CISF JUHU AIRPORT, one of the largest helicopter bases in the country, may soon be brought under CISF cover. The proposal of the Home Ministry also includes setting up around 10 watch towers at the airport. At the moment, part of the airport which is under Oil and Natural Gas Commission (ONGC), is already under CISF security. The rest is provided security cover by the state police. The airport handles around 90 helicopter operations with a few small aircraft coming here for maintenance. Most of the helicopter operations are off-shore, at the oil rig at Bombay High but the airport also sees a significant VIP movement including aircraft of key industrialists.

RAILWAYS SEEK CRPF SOUTH EASTERN Railways (SER) will approach the MHA for about 2,000 CRPF personnel to patrol the tracks passing through Maoist-affected areas. The introduction of anti-sabotage pandrol clips (that will fix the rail to the sleeper more securely) along vulnerable stretches is being contemplated. Nearly 80 per cent of SER's tracks pass through Maoistaffected zones. Therefore, it is requesting the Centre for 2,000 CRPF personnel.

They will patrol the tracks in the Kharagpur-Tatanagar, Kharagpur-Adra and Rourkela-Bandamunda sections. SER has already stopped running of trains along the vulnerable stretches after 10 pm. This can't be a permanent solution though, given the large number of trains that have to pass through these stretches every day. Other suggestions include the reduction of speed and discontinuing the practice of trains crossing each other.

BSF FOR INDIA-MYANMAR BORDER A PROPOSAL to deploy BSF personnel along the Indo-Myanmar border to improve security is under consideration of the Union Home Ministry. However, a final decision on whether the Indo-Myanmar border will be manned by the BSF or Assam Rifles will be taken by the Union Cabinet. The 1,640 km-long border is manned by the Assam Rifles, and the dense forests in most parts make the border porous and vulnerable. Most of the posts of Assam Rifles are located inside the Indian territory and only a handful of posts are located near the zero line, which makes it easier for the insurgents camping in Myanmar to sneak into India easily.

IB FEARS BREACH AT MINT! FEARING A security breach at the Nashik Currency Note Press (CNP), the Intelligence Bureau has asked it to follow strict norms on work premises. In the past few months, several CNP employees have lost their identity cards. During a recent security audit conducted by IB officials at all units run by the Security Printing and Minting Corporation of India Limited (SPMCIL) it was found

that due to the casual and careless attitude of the employees, security at the press was being compromised. The units are responsible for printing of judicial stamp papers, currency notes and minting of coins. India's mints are located at Mumbai, Kolkata, two in Hyderabad, Noida, two in Maharashtra at Nasik and Nashik Road and two in Madhya Pradesh at Dewas and Hoshangabad.

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Power fence at Sriharikota THE SATISH DHAWAN Space Centre at Sriharikota is building a power fence along its 45km coastline. The centre faces the open sea, and this is seen as a security threat. The first phase of the fencing, covering 16 km of the coast, has been completed. The entire project is being executed in a phased manner. Since the 45-km coastal border of the facility has remained open, it is considered a grave risk. The centre is also cordoning off the lake area with double-foil fencing.

Tackling stone-pelting mobs

BATTLING STONE-PELTING mobs in the Kashmir valley almost once a week for the past couple of years, the CRPF is now exploring a range of options, ranging from pepper guns to Active Denial System — the system emits a beam of wave energy that travels at high speeds and causes an extreme burning sensation on the human body. Operating under a clear mandate of not opening fire on the mobs, irrespective of the provocation, the CRPF has to deal with the violent crowds that have almost become a weekly feature in the Valley.

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URBAN CHALLENGES: The forces like National Security Guards (NSG) have an onerous task in securing the cities

DELHI

MUMBAI

CITIES UNDER SIEGE CHENNAI

KOLKATA

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While the US and UK have foiled over two dozen terror plots since 9/11 through public cooperation, in India there is neither co-ordination among civic authorities, commercial organisations, public sector, police services and government authorities, nor a psyche of preparedness to fight against the scourges of terrorism and crime. NARENDRA KAUSHIK takes a close look at the growing insecurity in Indian cities

R

ECENTLY, TWO vendors in busy Times Square of New York led the police to what could have been a most deadly terrorist strike after the 9/11. The T-shirt vendors saw smoke billowing out of a Nissan pathfinder and alerted the police leading to timely detection of a crude gasoline-and-propane bomb and Faisal Shahzad, a US citizen of Pakistani descent, the alleged man behind the terror plot. The incident is the best illustration of how the citizenry can act as eyes and ears of the police in foiling terrorists' designs. It also exemplifies how the police and the government in America have enrolled people into 'if you see something, say something' campaign and how the former has succeeded in winning over public confidence through its neighbourhood watch programmes and citizen police academies run in several states. The police in US, in fact, have foiled over two dozen terror plots since 9/11.

Like the US, the metropolitan police in London have thwarted over half a dozen terror plots in last two years alone through public cooperation and its philosophy of pre-emptive arrests. The police have run a major campaign for public education for over a year. The key message of the campaign, where the citizens are asked to keep an eye on their neighbours and convey any suspicious activity to anti-terrorist hotline, is 'Don't rely on others.

If you suspect it, report it.' Coupled with 'London first' safety initiative of City Security and Resilience Network (CSARN), a non-profit NGO, increased surveillance (there is supposed to be a CCTV for every 14 persons in the British capital) and training of 60,000 security guards, train conductors, store managers etc

by M15 as part of civilian network of 'terrorist spotters', the advertising campaign is a major contributor to making London, one of the safest cities in the world.

Germany and many other European countries have also initiated similar campaigns to enroll public support against the scourge of terrorism. There have been quite a few incidents of pre-emptive arrests in last few years.

Contrast this with recurrent terror violence in India: There is a palpable deficit of trust between the police and the public. People would rather suffer than get involved in a police case. There is no coordination worth its name among the police, the people, the cor-

porates and the local government institutions.

And in case the public somehow gathers the courage to report a suspicious activity, the corrupt and overworked police personnel look the other way as it happened in Mumbai on 26/11. There are reports that villagers on the coast in South Mumbai saw the Pakistani terrorists deboarding a dinghy and alerted the local police but the latter simply sat on the information.

Brigadier (Retired) Pradeep Sharma, the man credited with setting up of National Security Guards (NSG), feels the police are simply blind without the public support. "People support the army but not the police in India. It

has to be a national effort to enroll public support. This is urgently required," he says. He advises Indian police to follow the American example (US police started citizen-police academies in 1985 to educate people about police functioning).

Marketing expert and television debater Suhel Seth attributes the increase in terrorism to public indifference. He feels the 'culture of preparedness is not part of our DNA' and the average Indian is good at passing the buck and expects others to fight terrorism. "We're selfish, greedy and self-serving. The prepared psyche is missing. The nation needs psyche of alertness and preparedness," he says.

“THERE SHOULD BE REGULAR POLICEPUBLIC MEETINGS AT THE MOHALLA, THANA AND DISTRICT LEVELS�

Former Delhi Police Commissioner Ajay Raj Sharma:

Q

How can Delhi be made secure?

There are two aspects to security. One is criminal activities and the other involves possible terrorist attacks. These two areas need to be attended to. The beat system has to be made more active. SHOs should know the criminals of their area. Special Cell should find out about sleeper cells of Indian Mujahideen, Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), Jaishe-Mohammad (JeM) and other terrorist groups, planted in Delhi.

On technology front, we should make sure that all CCTVs and cameras are functioning and being watched. The policemen have been to Beijing and Australia and know what needs to be done to secure the Commonwealth Games. I don't think any new measures are required. The police should only make sure that they buy all the required equipment and know how to use them before the CWG.

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What needs to be done to involve public in policing?

There should be regular meetings at the mohalla, thana and district levels. During my tenure I had introduced a separate box for public. I used to read whatever complaints would be dropped in the box. This is one way of getting to know how people feel about the police. I would take action even on anonymous complaints. I got lot of criminal intelligence-related information from the box and also knew if any policemen were indulging in wrong deeds.

Which areas may be more vulnerable to terrorist attacks?

All such areas where people gather in large numbers for shopping like Connaught Place, Greater Kailash, Lajpat Nagar, Chandni Chowk and Sarojini Nagar are vulnerable. Besides railway stations, metro stations, metro trains, air-conditioned markets, bus stops and the two airports are the places to be guarded properly. The terrorists may target high security zones and VIPs too.

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“WE HAVE INITIATED COMMUNITY POLICING” Latika Saran, Director General of Police, Tamil Nadu:

Q

What needs to be done to make cities in Tamil Nadu secure?

One priority would be intelligence gathering.

We've an active intelligence set-up to do the job. Security has several aspects - caste, communal problems, terrorism, law and order matters and also criminal intelligence. Our concern is primarily preventive. For this we do search and check vehicles on regular basis. At times, these checks are intensified. We are able to check many crimes through this.

Then there are standard beats and patrols.

Lot of police vehicles move around in the cities and beat constable are also there. We are going to increase our manpower. There will soon be more police stations in Chennai and certain other districts. We've adequate number of patrol vehicles. We can reach a site within seven minutes. There Prepared psyche is what Security Watch India (SWI), a not-for-profit organization, aims to create. The six-month-old group, headed by Harry Dhaul and having strategic experts like Maroof Raza, Brigadier Pradeep Sharma and Shyam Ratan Mehra, a former Secretary (Security) in Government of India, on board, seeks to build a network of all stakeholders — experts from public and private sectors, citizens, and to take on the network of terrorism. It plans to spread awareness about security issues in schools, businesses, hotels, resident welfare association and government agencies. Moreover, it endeavours to make the cities in India secure against terrorist activities a la what the CSARN is doing in London.

Like the CSARN which has a long list of sponsors and delegates, the SWI is also enrolling individual and corporate members.

Apparently the attempt is to create a national platform where civic authorities, commercial organizations, public sector, police services and government authorities can communicate. "It's a very unique attempt to create synergy among the different stakeholders and to integrate private with the government. We've

are certain areas which we can reach even in three minutes.

There are also coastal guards to patrol the region. We have initiated community policing with people living on the coast.

We carry out regular drills to instil confidence in the people.

What are you doing to involve the common public into policing?

That is being done at the station level.

There is regular interaction among the Station House Officers (SHOs), the people who reside there and local institutions.

The police rely on the public and the public rely on the police.

What places do you think would be more vulnerable to terrorist attacks?

Any place is vulnerable. We have to be constantly on our guard. There is a threat along the coast. There are communal and labour issues. All the information that comes to us is verified. not invented it. It exists in UK," says S R Mehra, Senior Advisor, SWI. "We aim to create systems and environment against terrorism," adds Maroof Raza.

To build on the seminar, it has organized a 'Secure Your City' conference in seven cities — New Delhi, Ahmedabad, Mumbai, Pune, Bengaluru, Chennai and Chandigarh — last month. It proposes to cover the remaining big cities in a later phase at the end of the current year.

Its conferences in the seven cities addressed by Indian and international experts along with local officials and citizens highlighted how the Indian metros could prevent the acts of terror, how citizens, schools, businesses and various other establishments could be made aware of the security issues and how medical, disaster management and security agencies could foster a better coordination. The conferences, organised in association with the CSARN, were addressed by security experts from India, USA, UK, other European countries and heads of local governance bodies in the seven cities.

This is what the experts analysed and pre-

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ALL FOR INVOLVEMENT OF CITIZENRY IN FIGHTING TERROR: (from top to bottom) Maroof Raza, Shyam Ratan Mehra and Suhel Seth all advocate the need for involving the public in raising a network to take on increasing threats to the cities from terrorists and criminals

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g INTERNALSECURITY scribed to stop another terrorist attack in the country, protect critical infrastructure, engage stakeholders, secure hotels and ensure success of Commonwealth Games (CWG) later this year and the cricket World Cup next year: Maroof Raza felt tier-II cities which represented India's multi-cultural, multi-ethnic and multi-religious heritage could be the next target of terrorists. "These places offer tailormade situations for terrorists. They are crowded (offering cover), have shoddy and illequipped police forces (as is the case with most of India's small towns) and offer instant headlines when attacked," he said. Raza was of the view that the terrorists might choose a new place to strike rather than attacking the same target.

Brigadier Pradeep Sharma counts hotels, hospitals, crowded areas, schools, government offices, iconic buildings, industrial targets etc among the possible targets of human bombs, conventional explosives, IEDs and a dirty bomb. Citing the example of Cobalt-60 found recently in Mayapuri (West Delhi), he said there was enough medical waste to prepare a chemical strike.

Brian T Connor, Global Chief Security Officer, Genpact, thinks that since the CWG would put Delhi on world stage, the city might be targeted by Al Qaeda and its affiliates like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad.

Alan Windsor who works with Catalyst Partners in USA advises India building a riskbased system for asset classification. He felt that since India looked to invest majorly in port development, rail projects, airports, electrical generation and other critical industries, it should build infrastructure protection approaches and regimes that distinguish it as a stable home of investment and productivity for decades to come.

The security specialists underline the need for developing a right team and leadership for crisis management. They feel it is imperative for crisis managers to communicate properly with the media. "Talking to media is not a mistake. You cannot exclude it. One should develop a crisis management strategy. Remember media is a good friend but bad enemy," said Brett Lovegrove, the former head of counter-terrorism in London and Director of the CSARN. Nicole A Lipkin, a clinical psychologist who is president of Equilibria Coaching and Consultation Services in the US, attributed delay in communication, absence from the crisis site, blame game and fact spinning to poor leadership.

Terming the citizens virtually the 'first responders', Brigadier Sharma stressed on equipping them with information about their blood groups, emergency numbers, medical

“WE HAVE TO LOOK AT SECURITY HOLISTICALLY” Jija Madhavan Hari Singh, DGP & Commandant General, Home Guards and Director Civil Defence and Fire & Emergency Services, Karnataka: On how police are securing Bangalore: Securing the city presents multiple challenges for the police — terrorism, fire and air accidents. Also, there are other security issues involving cyber crimes. The world's richest industrialists are here to invest in Bangalore. There are lots of thefts. There are issues involving intellectual property. When we talk of security of information, it is not just about IT. It is also about businesses.

On another level, we've to see whether older people are secure in the city. We have to look at security holistically — both at micro and macro level.

On how Bangalore police are involving citizens in the exercise: Citizens' awareness and involvement is a must. As a stakeholder, they are the most vital key to prevent an incident or minimise its impact. In 2009, we were awarded a the Golden Peacock Award for list and basic response to medical emergencies, fire fighting and responses to fire situations, police helpline number, emergency medicines and torch-light, etc. He advised the industry to train its employees for emergency responses and watch ward duties to be the eyes and ears of the management as well as the police.

There is a need for planning physical security; sourcing, integrating and utilizing intelligence reporting; communicating security across staff and multi-site networks and managing of volatile threat levels. A fine balance is required between privacy and normalcy with security. One also has to deal with communication black-outs, provide 'safe' and secure contingency environments and respond to coinciding threats.

Brian T Connor regrets that the quality of

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involving citizenry into policing.

We have given life to an old system of Civil Defence under which volunteers are being trained to secure their neighbourhood. The system was used to support defence services during war in the past. Now we have made it applicable to disaster and internal security. For this purpose, Bangalore has been divided into 50 divisions. A Major General (retired) has been appointed the Chief Warden of Civil Defence. There are also additional Chief Wardens. They impart life-saving courses to citizens. There are four types of basic courses — induction course, fire fighting and relief course, watermenship and flood rescue and first aid and life saving course. There are 50 divisional wardens.

The Civil Defence programme is now one-and-half-year old. We've already commissioned 15 divisions.

Accidents are happening on roads. There are stampedes in religious functions.

People get panicky out of ignorance.

They do not plan for these things. When you walk into a theatre, the first thing you should do is to look for doorways and fire fighting equipment. guards in businesses in India is low. "Pay peanuts and get monkeys. You have got to raise the standard," he said.

CBRN Planning and Recovery: Matt Tuck, Director, MATOM, a UK-based organisation which provides radiological and environmental protection services, felt religious discord; trans-boundary conflict and insurgent attacks could cause trouble in India in future. He stressed on proper watch of industry, pharmaceutical and research labs, hospitals and power plants to check the CBRN (Chemical, Biological, Radiation and Nuclear) threat.

Will the government ensure timely implementation of the steps recommended by them for securing our cities?

(The writer is a Delhi-based senior journalist) July 2010

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N THE last forty-four years, the Maoists have been giving an impression that they are fighting for justice, tribal welfare and good governance. They benefit from the view of some political leaders, intellectuals and civil society that Maoism in India is due to socio-economic problems and that need to be addressed with a development approach. However, the emerging Maoist presence in urban areas emanates from the CPI-Maoist objective to “capture political power”. Responding to a question: “Is your goal tribal welfare or political power?” to Tehelka in November 2009, Maoist leader Kishanji replied, “Political power”. Article 4 of the CPI-Maoist constitution says: “The immediate aim of the party is to accomplish the New Democratic Revolution…” Further, the party document on Strategy and Tactics notes: “The central task of the Indian revolution is the seizure of political power”. There is no mention anywhere in the Maoist literature that the movement will be ended once social and economic infrastructure is strengthened in remote areas.

Since the Maoists’ ultimate goal is to capture political power by encircling cities with a strategy of protracted people’s war (PPW), urban areas figure prominently in their revolutionary agenda. Towards “urban uprising”, which figures in the Maoists’ strategic offensive phase, they wish to concentrate on building an organisation of the working class. CPIMaoist, which accounts for 98 per cent of leftwing extremist violence in India, decided to intensify the people’s war by increasing its mass base across the country and strengthening its presence in urban areas. The decision, taken at a leadership conclave held in the forests along the Jharkhand-Orissa border sometime in January-February 2007, was unanimous. The conclave resolved to expand the armed struggle from “guerrilla war” to “urban and mobile warfare”, focusing on industrial areas. It also created a five-member Urban Sub-Committee (USCO) with Kobad Ghandy as its head and tasked it to prepare the urban plan. This plan is guided by the Peru Communist Party (PCP) model on cities.

Maoist presence has already been noticed in Delhi, Gurgaon, NOIDA, Mumabi, Chennai, Kolkata, Bengaluru, Pune, Nagpur, Surat,

Conspiring to capture political power through armed insurrection, the Maoists are intensifying their strikes and moving closer to towns and cities.

NIHAR NAYAK takes a close look at their diabolical designs…

Ahmedabad, Bhopal, Ranchi, Jamshedpur, Hyderabad, Rourkela, Bhubaneswar, etc.

Andhra police, who are assisting Delhi Police with the investigations, say they have information that Naxalites want to make a “big impression” by carrying out a strike in Delhi or the National Capital Region surrounding Delhi.

Meanwhile, India has been experiencing violent protest movements against the State in urban/semi-urban and projected special economic zone (SEZ) areas. As many as 250 proposals to create SEZs in 21 states are awaiting approval from various state governments, and decisions on these are delayed mainly due to disputes over compensation for agricultural land acquired for the purpose. The opposition to Nandigram and Singur SEZs in West Bengal came as a bonanza to the Naxalites in terms of increasing their support base. They will use similar tactics in other semi-urban and urban

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areas. On May 9, 2007, police arrested a top Maoist leader, Murali alias Ashok Satya Reddy, and three other Naxalites at Deekshabhoomi in Nagpur while they were planning to instigate people to launch an agitation on farmers’ suicides and a movement on the line of Nandigram to oppose SEZs in Nagpur.

The Maoist objective in urban areas could be building a countrywide anti-State, antigovernment united front during PPW and prepare the urban areas for “strategic offensive phase”. Second, since the urban areas are dominated by class enemies, a strong urban revolutionary movement will be supportive of waging struggle consistently until PPW reaches the stage of strategic offensive. Third, while PPW in rural areas will play the primary role, the urban workforce will play a complementary role. The Maoist document on “Urban Perspective” notes that in cities and industrial July 2010

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PLOTTING URBAN TERRORISM TAKING A POTSHOT AT THE STATE: Maoists in Lalgarh are resorting to traditional weapons like bows and arrows townships forces of counter-revolution such as the police, army and other state organs are almost invincible. In the circumstances, to promote the Maoist agenda, the participation of the urban masses is a sine qua non.

In the Maoists’ short-term urban perspective plan, complementary to PPW in rural areas, the urban workforce provides cadres, leadership having various types of capabilities essential for people’s war, logistics (shelter zone, funding, printing and material support) for the establishment of liberated zones in rural areas. Arms seized from the Maoists have disclosed the existence of clandestine manufacturing units in Chennai, Bhopal, Jamshedpur and Rourkela.

The Maoists’ major target areas are slums adjoining high-rise buildings and hawkers

occupying space right next to the offices of multinationals in the heart of the cities. Their support base comes mostly from the daily working class/labourers, slum dwellers, students, middle-class employees, intellectuals, etc. For building political awareness, they are also actively involved with the problems of special social groups like women, dalits, and religious minorities.

CPI-Maoist has divided urban mass organizations into three categories with some specific tasks. These are: secret revolutionary mass organisations, open and semi-open revolutionary mass organisations, and open legal mass organisations. There are also other organisations which are welfare-oriented, community-based, or self-help organisations, such as workers’ cooperatives, cultural organ-

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isations, sports clubs, libraries, non-governmental organisations, women’s welfare organisations, caste- and nationality-based welfare organisations, minorities’ bodies, etc. There are also specific committees to expand the support base in urban areas like city committees, area committees, and factory/ basti/college committees.

The Maoists’ tactics are mainly used to participate in the people’s resistance against the process of forced eviction and fight for the right of the working class and urban poor. The Maoists have supported urban-based people’s resistance against mega projects and labour problems in multinational companies. For example, they infiltrated their cadres in the Gurgaon labour protests in 2005 at the Honda factory. They also supported the November July 2010

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g INTERNALSECURITY 2000 working class strikes in Delhi and the struggles of Mumbai slum-dwellers and Kolkata hawkers. The Maoist tactics are: live and work with them in their areas; establish a base in the ghetto to gain entry into organising the community; closely link with the working class; mobilise and unify all other sections under working class leadership.

According to a Maoist document on urban strategy, the outfit will adopt a Tactical United Front with all the genuine bodies or organisations in urban areas that oppose the Indian State. College students, daily labourers, industrial workers and NGOs are their target groups to consolidate in urban areas. Trade unions will be formed in all big companies for both political and funding purposes. The party has decided to undertake electronic campaigning to disseminate information amongst the urban youth about party objectives and programme.

In the medium term, the Maoists’ emphasis is on the formation of revolutionary trade unions, mini-guerrilla squads, self-defence squads, and workers’ propaganda literature, among other things. They adopt a defensive policy as long as the conditions are not in their favour.

CPI-Maoist has been preparing for military tasks in the urban areas related to the defence of the urban movement under central military commission direction. The main target groups in the military tasks could be groups acting in the service of the ruling classes, pro-Hindu organisations and their militias, vigilante groups specifically organised by the State to target Maoist supporters, and state forces. In this regard, they are planning some action teams who are permanently based in urban areas to hit at important, selected, enemy targets. They may target individuals of military importance or indulge in sabotage like blowing up ammunition depots, destroying communication networks, damaging oil installations, etc.

Maoist city committees already exist in Kolkata and Delhi, with cells consisting of 3-7 students already active. Efforts are being made to form cells in Bhubaneswar, Berhampur, Rourkela, Jeypore and Bhopal as well. Cell members are paid 10,000-12,000 rupees monthly, and are given electronic gadgets for operations. Recently, the CPI-Maoist Politburo has also cleared a project of forming a committed action cell for urban areas and asked the People’s Liberation Guerrilla Army (PLGA) to become more aggressive by taking few more risks anywhere in the country.

In the long-term plan, the Maoists will develop a secret party, a united front, and people’s liberation army. They will intensify the class struggle in the urban areas and mobilise the support of millions of urban masses for the final victory.

A PROBABLE TARGET: Prominent bridges face increasing threats from Maoists Maoists urban plan synchronies very much with some of their recent activities in cities.

Some of the Maoists or Maoist supporters who have been active in urban areas and have come under the police radar are: Murali alias Ashok Satya Reddy, a top Maoist leader, and three other cadres, arrested on May 9, 2007 in Nagpur; Kobad Ghandy, Politburo member, arrested in Delhi on September 20, 2009; Sagar alias Shrinivas Venkatachalia, arrested in Ahmedabad; Sunil Mandiwal, a Delhi University professor, detained on April 4, 2010; Gopal Mishra, a trade union leader of Delhi, and his wife, arrested on March 29, 2010; Lakkaraju Satyanarayana Murty, arrested in Hyderabad on March 23, 2010; Arvind Joshi, an alleged accomplice of Kobad Ghandy, arrested on February 21, 2010 with seven others at Kanpur; Subhashree Panda alias Mili, who was allegedly in charge of fundraising and printing of Maoist literature, arrested on January 15, 2010 in Bhubaneswar. Police have also named another Delhi University professor, G.N. Saibaba, and members of rights organizations such as Darshan Pal of the People’s Democratic Front of India, Rona Wilson, secretary of the Committee for the Release of Political Prisoners, and Gautam Navlakha of the People’s Union for Democratic Rights.

Some recent Maoist attacks have been carried out closer to cities, including one on an Eastern Frontier Rifles (EFR) security camp at Silda in West Medinapur district of West Bengal on February 15, 2010. Maoists carried out a similar attack on February 15, 2008 in Nayagarh, just 88 kilometres from the state capital.

Earlier, Maoists had attacked the district headquarters and jails in Orissa and Bihar. On March 24, 2006, over 500 Maoists attacked the

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Orissa State Armed Police camp at R Udayagiri town in Gajapati district, looted arms, and managed to free 40 prisoners. In November 2005, over 300 armed Maoists raided the district jail in Jehanabad town and freed their comrades. Earlier, on February 12, 2004, over 500 Maoists simultaneously attacked the Koraput district headquarters and armoury. These attacks indicate that the Maoists are moving closer to cities and that semi-urban areas are vulnerable to their attacks. Police stations located close to highways and situated in semiurban areas are their immediate target.

Urban areas will, however, pose serious challenges to the Maoists’ plans. The challenges stem from absence of strong social and political issues, support base, presence of security forces, and lack of terrain support to hide after major attacks. In urban areas the Maoists will be more dependent on their front organisations than on PLGA. It is likely that in the given circumstances they will in the short term focus mainly on organisation building, fundraising and identification of organisations for a united front in urban areas. During this phase, their tactics could be defensive. They will also try to seek support of urban intellectuals and students to justify their cause. In the interim, smaller cities or satellite towns could be their immediate target. An indicator to the growing Maoist presence in urban areas in the coming days will be the political campaigning — demonstrations, strikes, and labour problems — dominating the Indian urban scenario. That may cripple the political and economic activities of the State.

(The writer is Associate Fellow, IDSA.) July 2010

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Sky-Y from Italy

SKY-Y IS a medium-altitude long endurance (MALE) unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV ), designed, developed and financed by Alenia Aeronautica, Italy, for manifestation and research applications.

It is the first European UAV to fly in the MALE category. The UAV can be deployed for civil and military missions

such as surveillance, ground monitoring, reconnaissance, fire control, detection and monitoring of boat traffic and signalling to shipwrecked mariners. Flying at a maximum altitude of 7,620m, Sky-Y can provide its operators with real-time intelligence information through the surveillance of a large area. With auto-

Supacat from UK THE SUPACAT Protected Vehicle 400 Series (SPV400) is a lightweight highmobility vehicle developed by UK-based Supacat Limited. The SPV400 is a contender for the UK Ministry of Defence's (MoD) Light Protected Patrol Vehicle (LPPV ) Programme. The MoD, under an Urgent Operational Requirement, will replace the Land Rover Snatch platform with an initial order of 200 vehicles. The LPPVs are expected to enter into service in early 2011 and will be deployed in Afghanistan. The SPV400 is currently undergoing development trials to meet the requirements of the British Army.

Since the vehicle has been designed and developed in the UK, it is free from US International Traffic in Arms Regulations restrictions for future design upgrades.

Selection of the SPV400 by the UK MoD is expected to sustain export possibilities

and create about 1,000 to 1,200 jobs. The SPV400's armoured steel chassis hull is a single structure. A composite crew pod is mounted over the hull while the vehicle's armour protection system reduces its overall weight.

The vehicle's modular and sacrificial structures reduce the overall damage caused by blasts. The design also enables the quick repair and replacement of damaged modules. A hatch cover is available to mount the weapons. The clean-sheet design of the LPPV allows it to be upgraded to enhance mobility and protection.

The crew pod has mine blast seats and configurable ballistic armour that reduces the impact of mine and improvised explosive device blasts. The high ground standoff of the hull protects the crew from under-belly mine threats by deflecting blasts away from the crew pod.

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matic take-off and landing (ATOL), the vehicle can operate during adverse weather conditions.

Sky-Y features a 76cm steerable satellite communications antenna in the aircraft's nose, which is used for transmitting real-time imagery and videos to a ground control station (GCS) or remote control station operator via a satellite data link system. The UAV can be controlled either manually from the ground control station or through the autonomous mode using an on-board mission computer manufactured by Quadrics. It is fully equipped with automatic launch and recovery (ALR) system software, which controls the aircraft to land safely in case of communication failure with the GCS. The UAV is also fitted with a synthetic aperture radar (SAR), electronic support measures (ESM), and electronic intelligence (ELINT) systems. The SAR captures high resolution images of ground targets using modern digital electronics technology. The ESM radar aids the UAV to determine signals emitted from the surrounding radars or vehicles.

Sky-Y is powered by a single Fiat automotive diesel engine. Each engine is equipped with a single-stage turbo charger and can produce up to 150kW of power. The engine is designed and manufactured by Fiat Industries.

The SPV400's high articulation, double-wishbone front and rear suspension with air-sprung units enable all terrain mobility. The vehicle has a kerb-to-kerb turning circle of 11.8m and wall-to-wall of 12.5m. The steering is hydraulically assisted with rack and pinion and has outboard disc, opposed piston callipers and antilock braking system. With permanent allwheel drive, the SPV400 is capable of travelling at a top speed of 120km/h.

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g NEW-AGE GADGETS FOR ARMY INDIAN ARMY plans to induct new-age gadgets such as micro audio bugs and video devices to keep a watch on terrorist hideouts and their meeting places and activities, apparently taking a leaf out of James Bond flicks.

Possible nanotechnology applications are micro audio bugs and video recording devices with high capacity data storage to plant at likely meeting places of terrorists, over ground agents and sympathisers.

The plan is as per the 'Technology Perspective and Capability Roadmap' for the Defence Ministry. Nanotechnology is an expected future manufacturing technology that will make most products lighter, stronger, cleaner, less expensive and smaller in size. The Army is planning to use these micro devices, which would be too small to be detected, for keeping a watch on movement and activities of terrorists.

The Army also envisages use of micro-sized energy devices which can power unattended sensors and devices in remote areas or places that require extremely lightweight power sources like lightweight man portable radars, missiles, UAVs and other systems .

CHINA-US DUEL ON SUPERCOMPUTER THE U.S. Department of Energy's Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility and its Jaguar system kept the No. 1 spot on the Top500 list of fastest supercomputers, but China's new Nebulae is close behind at No. 2. The Top500 list was presented on June 31 at the ISC'10 (international Supercomputing Conference) held in Hamburg, Germany. Nebulae, which emerged late last year as China's big entry into supercomputing, is currently the fastest system worldwide with a theoretical peak performance of 2.98 petaflops per second. One petaflop is one quadrillon calculations per second.

Nebulae, located at the National Supercomputing Centre in Shenzhen, China, runs on a Dawning TC3600 Blade system with Intel X5650 processors and Nvidia Tesla C2050 GPUs.

BERIEV BE-200 FROM RUSSIA THE BERIEV Be-200 is a multipurpose amphibious aircraft manufactured by Russia-based Irkut. The aircraft was developed under Irkut's first full-scale civil programme. The Be-200 cooperation programme includes key aviation industry companies such as Beriev Aircraft, Airbus, EADS-Irkut Seaplane (EISP) and EADS. The Be-200 can be configured for fire fighting, search and rescue, maritime patrol and environmental monitoring, cargo and passenger transportation operations. It can take off and land on unprepared airstrips and water.

The Russian Navy plans to procure four Be-200 aircraft for reconnaissance and search and rescue duties, with deliveries scheduled between 2010 and 2013.

The People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) of China is also in discussions with Russia to buy the maritime search and rescue variant.

Designed as a multirole amphibious platform, the Be-200 can be configured for a range of missions. The aircraft is a high-wing T-tail monoplane with a single-step design hull. The design provides stability in water. The airframe is made of aluminium alloys and coated with corrosion-protection materials. The Be200 features significant maritime characteristics to perform littoral and blue water operations. The aircraft delivers flight characteristics similar to conventional aircraft.

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The Be-200 mission variants include fire-fighting, search and rescue, freighter, passenger aircraft and ambulance. The firefighting variant has a crew of two members, and is fitted with fire extinguishing fluid and water tanks. The aircraft can drop 270t of water on the fire area without refuelling.

The search and rescue (SAR) variant can perform operations within an area of 200 miles for 6.5 hours. The aircraft is equipped with an inflatable rubber dinghy, thermal-imaging and optical search aids and a first-aid kit. The SAR variant can be configured to carry 45 passengers. The transport variant is fitted with floor-mounted cargo-handling equipment to transport loose cargoes, as well as cargoes loaded in standard containers and pallets. The aircraft has the capacity to carry 6.5t payload.

The passenger variant, designated as Be-210, can carry 72 passengers. It has the maximum range of 1,850 km. The BE200 ambulance version can accommodate ten medical staff as well as 30 injured persons on stretchers. The aircraft features emergency diagnostics and intensive care facilities.

The Be-200 can fly at a maximum speed of 680km/h. It has a range of 3,300 km and service ceiling of 8,000m. The aircraft can climb at a rate of 3,350 ft per minute. The Be-200's maximum take-off weight on the runway and water is 41t and 37.9t respectively.

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UNMANNED GROUND VEHICLE READY THE FIRST prototype of Unmanned Ground Vehicle on BMP II (Namica) vehicle platform — a light infantry vehicle on the Nag Missile Carrier equipped with a thermal imager for target acquisition — has been developed by Combat Vehicles Research & Development Establishment (CVRDE), Avadi, Chennai. The prototype consists of Driveby-Wire (DBW ) system which includes electromechanical actuators and drives for the driver interfaces such as acceleration, brake, gear shifting, steering, clutch, parking brake, etc.

The DBW system is controlled by a PXI-based controller in the remote vehicle and receives commands on wireless LAN from a lab view-based GUI located at the base station. The position feedbacks from the encoders on the steering actuators and from

limit switches on the gear shift levers are obtained at the base station for accurate control. The clutching and gear shifting operations have been combined in the GUI, rendering the advantages of an automatic transmission to the conventional powerpack.

Remote switching on the engine is also built in the controller. The unmanned BMP was demonstrated in late May. The signals from the engine, like engine rpm, vehicle speed, etc, are acquired by a data acquisition card and displayed in the GUI. The e l e c t r o mechanical actuators for the BMP II have been designed in such a way that the driver's accessibility to all the control pedals is not affected. The reverse effect on the actuators due to the manual override was considered during the design and selection of electromechanical actuators.

BIO-DEFENCES SHOWCASED IN INDIA

BIOLOGICAL AND chemical defence methods were showcased at the recently held Bangalore India Bio 2010.

Among the technologies showcased were protective suits for medical responder made of waterproof polyester. The suits, designed for rescue operations in biological or chemical warfare emergencies, are impervious to rain, sleet and snow. The suit also contains a mask with a particulate aerosol filter to provide contamination-free air.

The colour-coded suits come in white for medical personnel, orange for

radiation safety officers and navy blue for team leaders. A ricin test kit was also displayed at the event. Liquid within the test kit changes colors to indicate the presence of ricin. Several antidotes for powerful poisons were also part of the conference, including a powder that can be placed on the skin to prevent blisters from chemical warfare, an injectable antidote for nerve agent poison that is administered every five minutes until a patient returns to normal and a cyanide antidote.

The products were developed by the Bangalore-based Defence Bioengineering and Electromedical Laboratory (DEBEL), which works under the Life Sciences Directorate of DRDO. DEBEL is charged with researching and developing technologies and products for life-support, medical and physiological protection systems for the Indian armed forces.

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LSI STORAGE DEPLOYED IN CEA LSI CORPORATION has announced that the Military Applications Division (DAM) of the French Atomic Energy Commission (CEA) has installed nextgeneration LSI storage system technology in its petaflop-scale data centre hosting the Tera 100 supercomputer. With theoretical processing power of 1.25 petaflops, Tera 100 is among the most powerful supercomputers ever designed and developed in Europe. A petaflop is a measure of a computer's processing speed and can be expressed as a thousand trillion floating point operations per second. The implementation of LSI storage technology at CEA/DAM is part of a new OEM partnership between LSI and Bull, a leading high performance computing (HPC) solutions provider based in Europe.

CEA, a government-funded technology research organisation, initiated a collaborative programme with Bull in 2008 designed to extending the data centre capability of the Tera 100 supercomputing centre. CEA/DAM will utilise the Tera 100 supercomputer for its nuclear weapons simulation programme aimed at guaranteeing the reliability of France's nuclear weapons.

DRDO LASER BOMBS SUCCESSFUL AERONAUTICAL DEVELOPMENT Establishment (ADE), a premier DRDO aeronautical lab at Bangalore, has successfully designed, developed and carried out the user-trials of laser-guided bombs at Pokhran with the participation of users, Indian Air Force. Flight tests have demonstrated the accuracy, reliability and performance of these precision air-launched bombs. The tests have been conducted after-extensive simulation, design validation and ground experiments followed by series of flight evaluation. A number of hightech components have also been developed by Indian industries for this advanced weapon package. IAF is expected to upgrade a large number of unguided bombs to this standard based on the excellent results.

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DECLINING MILITARY MIGHT The Russian defence industry is today bedevilled with outdated production machinery, resulting in a serious crunch of overseas orders

WAVERING DIPLOMACY

DEMYSTIFYING THE DRAGON

WANING INDIAN CLOUT

Indian diplomacy has failed to take a bold stand on nuclear issues

The lumbering Indian elephant may catch up with the flying Chinese dragon

Rajapaksa’s visit to India saw little resolution of bilateral issues

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OW IS Indian diplomacy performing on the all-important nuclear front is the milliondollar question agitating the country's best brains: its sagacious policy-makers and think tanks. In the fairest assessment of the most informed analysts of India's foreign policy, the performance of Indian diplomacy has been less than satisfactory (anything but dynamic) in the vital task of promoting, preserving, and safeguarding the country's civil and strategic nuclear interests against heavy odds in a hostile global milieu.

Diplomacy is generally defined and delineated as the art of enlightened self-interest.

Its practitioners (Ambassadors and their high-ranking officers) are, ideally speaking, men and women of the highest personal integrity, exceptional intelligence, who are committed to uphold the good of their country under all circumstances. They are habitually hard nuts to crack, with shrewdness forming an ingrained element of their mental make-up, which is aptly illustrated in a well-known quote: "A diplomat is a person who can tell you to go to hell in such a way that you actually look forward to the trip."

Though Indian diplomats have the assured advantage of learning and mastering the teachings of one of the greatest authorities on the art of diplomacy — Chanakya — do they measure up to the definition and mantle of the ideal diplomat ? With few exceptions, they hardly do, as evidenced by instances galore of their reported indiscretions and blunders detrimental to the interests of their motherland.

In 1998, India conducted its nuclear tests after the nuclear weapon countries had refused to accept nuclear disarmament.

Indian diplomacy had to transform itself to a new reality. After the 2008 waiver of the guidelines of Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), Indian diplomacy has a new opportunity to promote India's civil nuclear energy quest. A question comes up: How is Indian diplomacy performing on the nuclear front?

It is not stagnant; however, it is very slow in responding to the changed reality. There are some welcome moves but with sluggishness.

NU(O)CLEAR

In April 2010, US President Barack Obama convened a nuclear security summit in which 47 countries participated. The objective of the summit was to gather international stakeholders who are worried about the possibility of nuclear terrorism, and felt the need for securing nuclear materials and facilities. Nuclear security of materials and sites are considered important to deny terrorists required materials and facilities. India participated in all the four preparatory meetings for the April 2010 summit.

Nuclear security is one of the important concerns of nuclear science and peaceful uses of nuclear energy. Today, the world is

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talking about another phase of nuclear energy renaissance. This nuclear renaissance is being paid special attention to by the countries that are seeking or expanding nuclear capabilities in general and the international community in particular.

In the nuclear energy discourse, nuclear security predominantly figures as 2Ss, namely Safety and Safeguards. Safety and Security are clubbed together and often understood the same. True, both nuclear safety and security have to guard against sabotage, protection of man and environment from the radiological release. For sure, there is a conceptual distinction between the two terms — July 2010

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Grossly wavering on the new nuclear order, Indian diplomacy has failed to take a bold stand that the nation will not sign and ratify the CTBT if its security interests require few more tests to acquire a safe and reliable nuclear weapon system.

The foreign policy mandarins are also not grasping the serious ramifications of a nuclear Iran for India, observes RAJIV NAYAN

DIPLOMACY nuclear security and nuclear safety. Nuclear safety refers to a preventive measure to check or restrict nuclear and radiation accidents. Nuclear security is concerned with a malicious plan to harm through nuclear materials.

In security studies, terrorist attack involving radiological items, sabotage of nuclear activities, theft of nuclear or radioactive materials are dealt with under nuclear security. The events such as September 11 and the political turmoil in Pakistan have further alerted the international community about security of nuclear facilities and materials.

Though the concern of nuclear security has

been for long, till recently safety and safeguards remained dominant issues.

India is a non-aligned country that has been entering into strategic partnerships with the Western world, the United States in particular. India has a unique opportunity to demonstrate its image of an emerging power willing to take global responsibilities and play an important role in bringing diverse international forces together. The joint or collective nuclear security by any means would be better than individual country's search for nuclear security.

Although India has legal, regulatory and institutional frameworks for nuclear securi-

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ty, it has underlined the significance of working with the international community to counter the menace of nuclear terrorism.

It is aware of the importance of the sharing of experience with other countries. The Atomic Energy Regulatory Board is an autonomous body under Department of Atomic Energy. The Board has been functioning as the nodal agency for nuclear security and safety. The Indian Prime Minister informed the global audience that India had conducted nine regional training courses on nuclear security. For sure, India may share its unique institutional wisdom with the world.

Apart from coordinating the institutional framework for the global nuclear security regime, India may have to undertake many more diplomatic activities enshrined in the work plan. This includes garnering support for signature and implementation of the International Convention for the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism and the Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material along with its 2005 Amendment. India is already a signatory of both the international conventions for nuclear security. It has also signed the 2005 Amendment to the Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material.

India acceded to the Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material on March 12, 2002 and codified it on April 11, 2002. However, exercising its right under Article 17, paragraph 3 of the Convention, India expressed its reservation on the procedure for the settlement of disputes. Similarly, India expressed reservations on Paragraph (1) of Article 23 of the International Convention for the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism. India may have to explain the world about the rationale of its reservations for both the treaties.

India may also share its domestic legal experience regarding nuclear security. India has a network of legal and regulatory mechanisms to ensure nuclear security in general and security and control of nuclear materials in particular. Atomic Energy Act 1962 has detailed provisions such as articles 4, 5, 6, 7 and 14, 15, 16 and 17. Several acts and codes have been formulated under the Atomic energy Act 1962 for the purpose. There is a rich body of regulations such as Security of Radioactive Material during Transport; Regulation of Nuclear and Radiation Facilities, especially for licensing; licensing of personnel; AERB Guidelines on Site Emergency Preparedness Plans for Nuclear Installations; July 2010

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A RESPONSIBLE POWER: India has demonstrated to the US that it is acutely aware of the responsibilities that come with being a nuclear State and off-site Emergency Preparedness Plans for Nuclear Installations.

Multilateralism demonstrated during the nuclear security summit is not new for Indian nuclear diplomacy. India has been active in international forums. Apart from steering a resolution in the United Nations (UN) for preventing terrorists from acquiring weapons of mass destruction, India is active in the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN Security Council 1540 Committee and the most importantly, all the disarmament-related bodies of the UN. Indian diplomacy is still beholden to nuclear disarmament. As a principle, it is a laudable ideal. However, on this front, Indian diplomacy behaves as if it is not accountable to Indian tax-payers. Nuclear disarmament is not happening. What is happening at the global level is arms control. The old nuclear weapon countries are discarding redundant nuclear weapons, and planning to acquire new generation of nuclear weapons, possibly without any explosive testing. The 2010 Review Conference (RevCon) of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) hardly delivered anything substantially on nuclear disarmament.

Question arises: Should India oppose nuclear disarmament? The answer is no. It should support any nuclear disarmament initiative, but must not drain its resources on it.

In the past, India was quite pro-active on nuclear disarmament, but failed to stir the nuclear weapon countries. Some countries

did not pay even lip service to nuclear disarmament. Indian diplomacy must admit its failure and limitations to deliver nuclear disarmament. Currently, nuclear disarmament campaign is facilitating only foreign trips to a small group, especially retired diplomats. For their foreign trips, India's national interest should not be sacrificed.

Limited resources may be used to undertake a proper study of the issues which are going to affect India adversely. Different nonproliferation mechanisms need to be studied thoroughly. Regarding Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty, Indian diplomacy has adopted a sound strategy. On the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), it has a faulty approach, though it has done some course correction lately. Now, it is rightly linking it to the ratification of the US and China. India may take a bold stand that it will not sign and ratify the CTBT if its security interests require few more tests. It has to tell the world that the old nuclear weapon countries had conducted a large number of tests to validate their warhead designs. As long as nuclear weapons exist, which in more likelihood will, a safe and reliable nuclear weapon system is in the benefit of the world. This requires nuclear testing.

Despite the Indian Prime Minister's unequivocal statement in December 2009 and the official letter to the UN Security Council in response to the Resolution 1887 in September 2009, the Indian government has entered into a new phase of ambiguity vis-Ă -vis the NPT. The lackadaisical Indian approach is blocking

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the generating of momentum which may accommodate India into the NPT as a nuclear weapon country. Comes the question: should India remain indifferent to the NPT considering that its membership is not going to benefit either the NPT or India? Follows the question: would it be possible to get the NPT amended at an affordable cost? An amendment to the treaty to make India an NWS could be a winwin situation for India and the NPT. Indian diplomacy has also been wavering on Iran. India needs to understand that nuclear Iran may have disastrous consequences for not only West Asia or the region next to West Asia but also for the region in which India is located. It has to resolve the stand on enrichment and reprocessing technology. On the one hand, in the July 18, 2005 India-US joint statement, it pledged not to supply uranium and enrichment technology to countries that are not possessing it; and on the other, it fights for the right to reprocess and enrich for new players. Iran was involved in the Pakistan-led network. Indian diplomats would do well to remember this fact.

In fact, Indian diplomacy has been by and large unsuccessful in highlighting the proliferation network run by Pakistan. A Q Khan is free. It shows duplicity of Pakistan and the western world both. Indian diplomats also looked unsure of highlighting the concern regarding Pakistani nuclear assets. Thankfully, it is the western world that has been highlighting this threat.

Despite the NSG waiver, India is not able to get technology restrictions lifted from the leading countries which have been denying technology to India. Admittedly, France and Russia are active after the waiver in the Indian nuclear business. But these countries were always positive towards India. The NSG restrictions were the big hurdles. In the June 2010 Indo-US strategic dialogue, technology restrictions once again emerged as one of the issues, and the joint statement promised to work on that.

Thus, the balance sheet of Indian diplomacy is not very encouraging. It needs to have a dynamic leadership at the joint secretary level with a person who has a sound understanding of the subject and is willing to take a bold decision. Unfortunately, in Indian foreign policy, think tanks have no role. If India wants to become a great power, it will have to develop a professionally managed network of strategists. The role of retired or serving diplomats should be marginal and minimal in the policy-making.

(The writer is a senior scholar at IDSA , New Delhi) July 2010

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Rajapaksa’s recent India visit saw no concrete progress, be it the negotiated settlement of the ethnic conflict or signing of the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). In fact, China’s growing presence in Sri Lanka is undermining India’s clout in the island, observes SUDHA RAMACHANDRAN

ALIENATION NOT ADDRESSED: With LTTE smashed, Rajapaksa does not feel the need for a political solution to the ethnic conflict

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URING SRI LANKAN President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s recent visit to Delhi, India and Sri Lanka signed seven agreements in areas including security, energy, railways, and cultural exchange. Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) on the transfer of sentenced persons and mutual legal assistance in criminal matters will enhance counter-terrorism cooperation between the two countries, while another on connecting their electricity grids will provide powerstarved Sri Lanka with electricity. India will construct a railway line connecting Talaimannar with Madhu in the Northern Province and fast-track other rail projects for which it has already pledged US$ 800 million. It has promised to build 50,000 houses for the internally displaced and participate in a host of rehabilitation projects.

India will help Sri Lanka renovate Palaly Airport and Kankesanthurai Harbour in the Jaffna peninsula. The two countries are restoring the ferry services between Colombo and Tuticorin in Tamil Nadu, and between Talaimannar and Rameswaram in Tamil Nadu. India is launching a CEOs forum to invigorate trade ties. On the anvil is an ‘IndiaSri Lanka Knowledge Initiative’ to expand collaboration in educational sector.

The array of agreements signed is, indeed, impressive. However, there is no concrete progress to report with regard to the resolution of the ethnic conflict, a process that India has been engaged in for decades, and that the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) remains unsigned two years after India announced that it was ready for signatures.

The Joint Declaration issued at the end of the visit spoke of Rajapaksa’s “determination to evolve a political settlement acceptable to all communities”. It referred to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s support for “a meaningful devolution package, building upon the 13th Amendment” as essential to “create the necessary conditions for a lasting political settlement”. These are ideas and assurances that have been heard before. But there is little to suggest that it is moving beyond rhetoric and discussion.

To be fair to the President, he has been busy with elections over the past six months. But the elections are done now and he has emerged politically stronger from them. He won the presidential election by a convincing margin, securing for himself a second term and decimating the challenge from Lt General Sarat Fonseka, his former army chief-turned-rival.

Rajapaksa’s party romped home to victory in the general election; the coalition it heads is

just six seats short of the two-third majority needed to bring constitutional change.

Rajapaksa has both public support and political backing. What he seems to lack is the political will to initiate the process for a political solution.

Like many Sinhala nationalists, he has been of the view that the only problem confronting Sri Lanka was that of ‘Tamil terrorism’ and that was removed with the defeat of the LTTE. His approach to addressing Tamil alienation from the Sri Lankan state is via development in the Tamil areas. He does not feel the need for a political solution to the conflict.

The Rajapaksa government is preoccupied currently with constitutional reform aimed at removing the present two-term limit on Presidents and at revising the 17th amendment to the constitution in a way that will further strengthen the powers of the President. In other words, Rajapaksa’s priority is to cement his iron grip over power in Sri Lanka, rather than resolve the ethnic conflict.

But is the quest for a political solution priority for India? Soosipillai Keethaponcalan, senior lecturer at Colombo University’s Department of Political Science, believes it isn’t.

Indeed, India’s policy to Sri Lanka since the 1990s has given priority to furthering its economic and security interests in the island over finding a negotiated settlement to the conflict.

Many would argue that right through the war

years India did not do enough to push the Sri Lankan government to the negotiating table.

Keethaponcalan says that even if India is committed to a political settlement, its solution is rather “abstract”.

‘Thirteenth amendment and beyond,’ which India has been suggesting, revolves around a devolution package for the Northeastern Province. The package was brokered

by India two decades ago. But the ‘Northeastern Province’ doesn’t exist as a unit any more, the East having been severed from the North by a judicial ruling in 2006. “The Sri Lankan government is unlikely to merge the provinces again,” points out Keethaponcalan. Besides, “the government is very firm on not devolving police powers”.

India’s ‘Thirteenth amendment and beyond’ suggestion is not cutting much ice with Rajapaksa. He has been saying that he will look for a “home-grown solution”.

On the economic front, bilateral trade has grown manifold since a free trade agreement came into effect a decade ago. It has proved beneficial to both countries. Now India is keen to get Sri Lanka to sign CEPA, which aims at expanding co-operation in investment and services. But Colombo is dilly-dallying.

“Opposition to CEPA in Sri Lanka is on nationalist, rather than economic grounds,” said Sumanasiri Liyanage, who teaches political economy at Peradeniya University in

NEED TO GO BEYOND RHETORIC: The Sri Lanka first couple with Indian President and Prime Minister

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DIPLOMACY Kandy. “There are some industrialists and businessmen who fear that they will lose their share in the Sri Lankan market if CEPA-led imports from India come to Sri Lanka. There is concern that Indian imports will flood the domestic market and that will be costly to domestic producers.”

Sinhala nationalist parties like the Janata Vimukti Peramuna (JVP) and the Jathika Nidahas Peramuna (JNP) too have been protesting CEPA. According to Minister for Construction and Engineering Services and JNP leader, Wimal Weerawansa, CEPA is “a ploy to fill the island with Indians”. The opposition of JVP and JNP to CEPA “stems from their old perception of India as an imperialist power,” says Liyanage.

Indian officials maintain that the government is keen on CEPA. Only it “wants to be seen to have engaged in hard bargaining over it”. Whatever the reason for its foot-dragging, Delhi has not been able to convince Rajapaksa to sign CEPA. Clearly, India’s ability to convince Rajapaksa on a series of issues is diminishing.

This is partly because still flushed with its victory over the LTTE, the government is unwilling to heed advice from anyone, including India. Besides, with the LTTE eliminated, fear of India’s potential to create trouble on the ethnic conflict front has diminished in Colombo. Sri Lanka does not feel as vulnerable vis-àvis India as it did in the past.

More importantly, the Sino-Indian battle for influence in Sri Lanka is providing Colombo with considerable leverage in its dealings with Delhi.

Built on the firm foundation of the 1952 rubber-rice pact, Sino-Lankan relations have grown manifold over the decades, especially in recent years. China is Sri Lanka’s biggest aid donor today — its aid rose from a few million dollars in 2005 to almost $ 1 billion in 2008.

Sino-Lankan defence co-operation has been robust. Unlike India, which during the war refrained from providing weaponry that could lead to high civilian casualties, China has had no such compunctions. It fulfilled Sri Lanka’s defence hardware wish-list.

It was “instrumental to some extent in the Sri Lankan government’s success in defeating the LTTE,” says China expert Srikanth Kondapalli, an associate professor at the Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi. “Colombo was trying to purchase arms from abroad for years and only China supplied it with weaponry on a sustained basis.”

This support from China [and Pakistan] enabled Sri Lanka to ignore India’s calls for a negotiated settlement to the ethnic conflict and pursue the military option against the LTTE.

CEMENTING THE LANKA OPENING: Chinese President Hu Jintao Today, “China’s influence in Sri Lanka is as major as that of India,” says John Gooneratne, a retired Sri Lankan diplomat and author of A Decade of Confrontation: Sri Lanka and India in the 1980s. “China is undertaking several large projects (as much as India is) in Sri Lanka. Some of them were started while the conflict was on, others post-conflict.”

Indeed, since 2006, Beijing has provided Sri Lanka with $ 3.06 billion in financial assistance for various projects. These include the Colombo-Katunayake expressway project, a coal power plant at Norochcholai, 120 km north of Colombo and a $1billion port development project at Hambantota on the island’s southern tip.

Hours after the conclusion of Rajapaksa’s India trip, Sri Lanka and China signed six agreements that cover development of highways, co-operation in information technology and communications, development of maritime ports and the second phase of the Hambantota Port Development project and so on.

“There is reason for India to be concerned over the growing Chinese influence in Sri Lanka, particularly in the long term,” says Kondapalli.

Security analysts have been drawing attention to China’s attempt at ‘encircling India’. Its presence on India’s southern door-step is making India uneasy. India is setting up new consulates in Jaffna and Hambantota. Sri Lankans believe that the proposed Hambantota consulate is aimed at ‘keeping an eye’ on Chinese activity there.

To many Sri Lankans, a close relationship with China is an attractive proposition. It will free Colombo from excessive dependence on India. “Chinese help to Sri Lanka, unlike that from India, is free from conditions,” points out Keethaponcalan.

Many Sinhalese remain suspicious of Indi-

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an intentions. Memories of India’s support to Tamil militants in the 1980s remain strong in the island.

Furthermore, India’s projects in Sri Lana are not visible to most Sri Lankans. It is focused in the North and East. In contrast, “China has the ‘knack’ of making grants/loans for projects that visibly project the Chinese image — the Bandaranaike Conference Hall, the Courts complex, and now a cultural complex (under construction) in Colombo,” says Gooneratne.

But the Sino-Lankan relationship is not free of problems.

“The trade balance is overwhelmingly in China’s favour,” points out Kondapalli.

Besides, “Sri Lanka’s exports consist of raw materials and food stuff. The Lankans want a diversification of the trade basket. Lankan traders are also having problems with the Chinese banking system,” he said.

While burgeoning ties with China have provided Sri Lanka with greater bargaining and wriggle-room vis-à-vis India, India’s geographic proximity is a factor that Colombo cannot afford to ignore. Past experience should make Colombo cautious of overplaying the China card or acting in a way that undermines India’s security concerns.

Back in the 1980s, the Sri Lankan government secured arms from countries like the United States, United Kingdom, Israel, Pakistan and China, ignoring India’s security concerns. That sparked off a series of moves by India which culminated in its provision of limited arms and training to the militants. Then in June 1987, when India violated Sri Lankan airspace and dropped relief supplies to Jaffna’s beleaguered Tamil population, the J R Jayawardene government appealed to its Western friends and Asian allies for help. But little help was forthcoming.

China, for instance, expressed strong disapproval of the ‘bullying action of big powers’ but refrained from naming India. It provided Colombo with military hardware but that was it. China was aware of the fact that “it was too far away from Sri Lanka to sustain any military support operation in the island,” points out Kondapalli. Beijing advised the Jayawardene government to pursue a political solution to the ethnic conflict, reminding Colombo that “distant waters don’t put out fires on your doorstep,” Gooneratne recalls. It was the proximate countries that were in a position to do so.

The lessons from the 1980s are unlikely to have been forgotten in Colombo, Beijing or Delhi.

(The writer is an independent analyst based in Bengaluru) July 2010

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“ENHANCE MUTUAL TRUST” Since China and India have more common interests than differences, their common development will serve the cause of peace and development of Asia and the entire world, argues Chinese Ambassador to India ZHANG YAN

I

COMING CLOSER: President Pratibha Patil at the Shanghai Expo 2010

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N MORE than 2000 years of history, good-neighbourliness and friendly interactions have always been the main feature of China-India relations. The liberation and independence of China and India in the middle of last century not only changed the destinies of the two countries, but also the political landscape of the world.

The establishment of diplomatic ties between China and India on April 1, 1950 ushered in a new era for the development of the bilateral relations. Since then, two countries have enjoyed mutual understanding and support in their respective endeavour of safeguarding independence and sovereignty, as well as in national building. Today, China and India have emerged as two fast-growing economies and their relationship has gone beyond the bilateral significance and assumed global and strategic dimensions.

Looking into the future, despite of all kinds of good and bad hypothesis, I am optimistic about China-India relations with following reasons: First, the leaders of two countries have taken long-term strategic perspectives about our relationship which provide a clear guidance and solid political basis for the sustained development of our relations.

Second, China-India relations have acquired new dimension. Two countries have established the Strategic and Cooperative Partnership in 2005, formulated Ten-Pronged Strategy in 2006, and signed A Shared Vision for 21st Century in 2008. All these have provided guidelines and roadmap for the development of strategic partnership.

Third, China-India relations are expanding and deepening in an all-round manner. Today China-India relations have extended into almost all human endeavours. The cooperation in all fields have yielded tangible benefits to the people of two countries.

Fourth, China and India enjoy growing shared interests. As two emerging economic powers, China and India have become imporJuly 2010

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AMBASSADOR’SJOURNAL tant trade partners. Two countries also share similar views on many important global and regional issues, and closely coordinate and cooperate with each other within the framework of BRICs, BASIC, G20 and other forum and on issues like the financial crisis, climate change and international trade negotiations.

Both are committed to the promotion of building a harmonious world of peace and common prosperity.

Fifth, China-India relations are growing in maturity. While striving to seek mutually acceptable solutions to boundary issues and other differences, both sides agree not to let those differences stand in the way of our cooperation. Furthermore, two countries have set up relevant mechanisms, such as Special Representative Talks on border issue, strategic dialogues and so on. All these platforms have played a very useful role for addressing relevant issues and maintaining stable relations of two countries.

The past 60 years have proved, when China and India live in amity and understand and support each other, two countries grow faster and people benefit. When China and India join hands, they can make a positive impact on the world peace and prosperity. It has also proved that cooperation, communication, consultation and dialogue are the best means to handle our relations. There are no fundamental differences and conflicts between China and India, let alone they are rivals and threats to each other. Two countries are partners for development. We have more common interests than differences. As Chinese President Hu Jintao underlines that the goodneighbourly friendship and cooperation between China and India and their common development not only benefit our two peoples but also serve the peace and development of Asia and the entire world. Indian Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh said time and again that there is enough room in the world for India and China to prosper together.

To move the China-India relations forward, I am of the view that efforts should be made in the following areas: First, further enhance mutual trust. I share the view that China and India need urgently to enhance their mutual trust which is vital to a sound and stable relationship. Without trust there can be no genuine relations. Without trust there can be no sustained and meaningful cooperation. Two countries should maintain the momentum of high-level interaction; expand exchanges and cooperation at all level and in all fields.

Second, upgrade the level of economic cooperation. As two fast-growing economies, China and India still hold great potentials in

THE WALL OF PERSEVERANCE: The people of China are known for their uncanny diligence, patience and fortitude their economic, trade and investment cooperation. The two sides should expand the scope of trade, improve trade configuration, and strive to reduce the trade imbalance. At the same time, the two countries should endeavour to reach a regional trade arrangement and take effective measures to remove trade and investment barriers so as to foster an environment conducive for a sustainable development of bilateral economic cooperation and achieve a win-win outcome.

Third, expand people-to-people exchanges to cement public support for our relations.

The two countries should enhance exchanges and cooperation in culture, education, tourism, religion, science and technology, and increase interactions between the academic communities and media sectors of two countries. Exchanges between youth should be further expanded. The China Festival and Indian Festival to be held in the respective countries this year will serve as an invaluable platform for promoting mutual understanding and friendship.

Fourth, further strengthen cooperation in multilateral forum. China and India shall remain as important partner in regional and global affairs, strengthen coordination and cooperation, and continue to play an active role in promoting multi-polarisation and democratisation in international relations and safeguarding the common interests of developing countries.

Fifth, properly address each other’s concerns. The two countries should respect and

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accommodate each other’s interests and concerns and appropriately manage the outstanding issues through consultations on an equal footing and in a spirit of mutual understanding. The two sides shall follow the political parameters and principles both agreed, including the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, and strive to seek a fair and reasonable solution acceptable to both the sides.

Pending a final resolution, we shall not allow the differences to affect our cooperation.

Sixth, properly handle the public opinion.

Public opinion is vitally important to the development of our relations. The two countries should provide correct guidance to the public opinions and avoid war of words.

Efforts should be made on both the sides in order to create an objective, friendly and mutually trust environment. A good and conducive public environment will not only provide a necessary condition for the stable development of our relations, but also create conditions conducive to the settlement of historical issues and other differences.

At the beginning of a new cycle of 60 years, China-India relations are faced with new and rare opportunities. The two countries should seize the opportunity, and join their efforts to take our relations to a new height.

(Excerpts from a recent speech delivered at the Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi)

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DEMYSTIFYING THE DRAGON

RICH HERITAGE: National Museum of China on Tiananmen Square in Beijing

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Contrary to China, India has proved that democracy and development go together. It is a matter of time for the lumbering Indian elephant to catch up with the flying Chinese dragon, asserts ASH NARAIN ROY

W

ho controls the past, said George Orwell famously, “controls the future and who controls the present controls the past”. Going by the accounts of London School of Economics Professor Angus Maddison’s book, The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective, India was the world’s largest economy in the first millennium AD accounting for onethird of the world’s income. In the 11th century, that figured remained largely intact.

India’s share in the 17th century was still 24 per cent. By that time China had overtaken India though India’s share of world income was still greater than that of entire Europe.

According to some projections, India and China could be back to contributing 50 per cent of the world’s GDP by 2020, which they did in the 19th century.

This is not the first time that China is on the verge of becoming a dominant global power. It lost the golden opportunity to lead the world way back in the 15th century. China had invented all the technologies necessary for the industrial revolution several hundred years before it actually happened.

China had invented blast furnaces and piston bellows for making steel; gunpowder and the cannon for military conquest; the compass and rudder for world exploration.

It had invented even the printing press for disseminating knowledge.

But China did not have the commensurate ideology to become a global power. The Chinese rejected, did not use and forgot the very technologies that could have given them world dominance. New technology was perceived as a threat, not an opportunity. This may happen again. China may miss the train again, thanks to its refusal to embrace democracy and its efforts to undermine the power of democracy.

Here is a country where the first emperor Quin Shihuangdi persecuted scholars and destroyed books. Over 400 scholars who refused to turn in books were either buried alive or sent to work on the Wall.

China continues to censor and block information that perjures the health of the regime. It is again at the striking distance of achieving world power ambition. When it comes to the right ideology, China seems to have changed little. Information is power but only for the authoritarian regime, not for the people.

This is where India and China are poles apart. Yes, the two have many things in common — large population, big size, long histo-

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ry, millennium culture and now phenomenal economic growth, but democracy is not one among them. At a time when the world is wrestling with the global financial crisis, India and China, the two whales in the global ocean, are viewed increasingly as part of the solution, not part of the problem. Democratic India has performed impressively in the economic field, but Communist China has done even “better”. But democracies have their own pace. India has made many mistakes. But as Gandhi says: “Freedom is not worth having if it does not include the freedom to make mistakes”.

China’s economic progress is phenomenal. Any Indian visitor to China looks at Beijing’s swanky airport, miles of China’s smooth, paved highways and its high-rise buildings with envy. But India’s rise too has been transformative, to say the least. If democracy has transformed India, India too has transformed democracy. Hence, what China can do, India can’t and need not as a democracy. China is seen as a strong state but it can’t handle peaceful protests by a small group of its disenchanted citizens except by rolling out tanks on the street.

India is quite at ease even if it deals with fissiparous demands and Maoist depredations.

The Indian state uses a combination of force and democratic dialogue with its disenchanted citizens. China deploys brute force but can’t have the democratic dialogue. Like a Chinese vase, the state is strong but brittle.

The difference is fundamental. If there is rule of law in India, it is rule by law in China.

Thanks to autocratic China’s rise and its muscle-flexing, for the first time since the end of the Cold War, democracy no longer enjoys an unchallenged position in the world. China’s growing assistance to poor, non-democratic countries in East and Southeast Asia has cast a shadow over democracies’ poor record in offering assistance to neo-democracies. China is getting bolder by the day. It even made an attempt recently to buy Newsweek magazine. Beijing is also about to launch its global English television channel to rival BBC and CNN. Xinhua is already well spread out globally. But can the controlled press compete with the free press?

India may be a functioning anarchy, but India has proved that democracy and development go together. To India, democracy is a daily plebiscite. Demand for more power, more autonomy represents a daily interrogation of that existence. Democracy goes through frequent negotiations, compromisJuly 2010

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es, failure of talks and accords. It is through constant churning that democracy matures.

No wonder, China’s rise is seen by the world as a threat, while India’s as a replicable success story.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh reiterated precisely this when he said recently, “Unlike China’s rise, which possibly causes apprehensions, the world takes a benign view of India’s growth. We need to take advantage of it.” It is thanks to this power of democracy that many hope some day the lumbering Indian elephant will catch up with the flying Chinese dragon.

The aforesaid analysis need not be seen as an effort to underwrite China’s remarkable economic advance. Such is the power and economic clout of China today that some analysts have begun to argue that amid the plethora of global formations, it is only the US and China (G2) that matter. Here is a rising power which is, in many ways, more important in the global pecking order than Europe and Japan. Hardly any global decision can be taken or a consensus built on any issue without China’s cooperation.

India and China represent competing models of development. They are rivals and

ASIAN GIANTS: Manmohan Singh with Chinese President Hu Jintao

competitors both. If China has sought to weaken India by cultivating some of India’s immediate neighbours, New Delhi too has built ties with ASEAN, forged alliances with East Asian democracies and even undertaken military exercises in the China Sea. If China has blocked India’s entry into the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, India too has used its weight and clout to stall the entry of China into IBSA (India, Brazil, South Africa) Dialogue Forum.

By saying that IBSA is a forum for southsouth cooperation and by remarking that IBSA countries are democracies, Manmohan Singh banged the IBSA door for Communist China. IBSA is unique in many ways. It is a neo-Gondwanan strategic vision, underpinning potential naval and maritime cooperation in both South Atlantic and the Indian Oceans. India, Brazil and South Africa have their not-so-hidden ambition to occupy the UN high table. It is the complementarities and synergies among the three countries that make IBSA what Brazilians call a “cafécon-leite-alliance”.

The centre of gravity of global politics is shifting from the North Atlantic to the East and the South. The gravitational pull appears to be slanted towards China and India. That explains why India and China have to simultaneously act as competitors and partners.

Whether India likes it or not, it is seen as a counterweight to China’s growing economic muscle.

Both the countries are now vying for influence in resource-rich Latin America and Africa. Each country is leveraging multilateral fora that exclude the other. China has used the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation to make inroads in Central Asia and India is using IBSA forum to strengthen cooperation among three democracies as a forum for alternative regionalism. IBSA has definitely brought India and Brazil and India and South Africa closer together. India and Brazil now have military attaches in their respective embassies. The two sides are jointly developing high technology military aircraft.

Embraer, one of the largest aircraft manufacturers, is already supplying aircraft being used by the VVIPs in India.

India has also sold Dhruv Advanced Light Helicopters to Ecuador. Some other countries in the region are considering defence collaboration with India. The ONGC and the Oil India Limited have struck big deals in Latin America. The Mittal Group and the Jindal Group and some other Indian companies have already moved into Latin America in a big way. India should also work to get South

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CHINA CANNOT HANDLE PEACEFUL PROTESTS BY A SMALL GROUP OF DISENCHANTED CITIZENS EXCEPT

BY ROLLING OUT TANKS ON THE STREET. Africa into Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) bloc.

What China has done in India’s immediate neighbourhood is an open secret. It has been developing port facilities in Pakistan, Bangladesh and Mayanmar and it is planning to build railroad lines in Nepal. It is not so much to expand its trade ties with these countries, it is an effort to create a “string of pearls” to undermine India’s preeminence in the region. China has clearly made inroads in nations that have been friendlier towards India, including Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal. China’s presence in India’s immediate neighbourhood is no longer benign. India needs to work out its own strategy to counter China’s presence.

Increasingly seen as geopolitical pillars, China and India will both compete and cooperate. They may even be seen as forging the strategic partnership. And yet, whether one likes it or not, India and China are destined to be rivals in the long run. Not so much militarily or economically but in terms of their competing models of governance and world views. Right now, it is a one-horse race. But tomorrow it could be different. As Yasheng Huang of MIT and Tarun Khanna of Harvard Business School perceptively wrote in Foreign Policy magazine, “The real issue isn’t where China and India are today, but where they will be tomorrow.”

(The writer is Associate Director, Institute of Social Sciences, Delhi) July 2010

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The Russian fleet today is a pale shadow of its glorious past with its inventory stocked with ageing Soviet-era equipment.

And, its defence industry is facing a serious crunch of orders from overseas clients.

ABHIJIT BHATTACHARYYA delves into the decline of Moscow’s military prowess.

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NE THOUGHT that communist USSR’s transition to capitalist Russia would transform the Moscow armament industry to a better and healthier shape to feed its national need and expand its international reach. Not exactly does it appear to have happened for the Russian manufacturers yet! The high water mark of the Soviets Union’s Red Navy is past. The variety of air force inventory is gone and the main battle tanks of Moscow too no longer attract customers the way they used to be sold and supplied to the allies and reliable buyers in the past. Even the new model and type thereof is failing to go to production line owing to paucity of order and negative return.

Yet, Moscow, along with its erstwhile Cold War foe, Washington, accounted for more than half of global arms sales between 2005 and 2009, as reported by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. The end result was USA’s 30 per cent to Russia’s 28 per cent share in the arms bazaar. One example of 2007 would reveal the actual figure - the USA export figure of $ 12.8 billion was closely followed by Russia’s export of $ 7.4 billion.

However, the fact remains that Russian armament’s export destinations in recent times were China (42 per cent) and India (20 per cent). One of the emerging new customers of Moscow, Venezuela — hailing from the US military’s backyard (South America) — with 7 per cent of Russia’s export share during 20042008, holds promise for the future but does not hold any firm prospect in perpetuity for the sluggish arms bazaar in a recession-afflicted world.

In 2008, Russia perhaps got one of the strongest jolts from its valued North African customer of Algeria. In an unusual show of determination, Algiers “terminated a $1.3-billion contract for 34 MiG-29 SMT combat aircraft and returned 15 aircraft already delivered, claiming that they were not up to the standards agreed in the contract”. Speculation continued nevertheless that Algeria may switch over to Su-30 MK or the more advanced Su-35 fighters in place of MiG-29, but no orders were reported.

Russian offer of a US$ 3 billion worth arms contracts to Libya also failed in 2008 as Tripoli ruler Colonel Muammar Qadhafi thought that Russia no longer held sway as monopoly supplier owing to new entrants like Belarus and Ukraine in the arms bazaar.

Moscow, by October 2008, still had a “US$ 30 billion backlog of orders” — according to Russian Prime Minister Medvedev. But it was evident that Russians were facing a serious

crunch of orders from the traditional and important clients, such as China, India and Venezuela. To make matters worse, the Russian defence industry, according to SIPRI, “with its outdated production equipment, is having trouble keeping up” the backlog and the orders from the Russian government itself.

Medvedev’s statement made the Moscow dilemma clear: “We need to understand that the growing volume of orders... represents a serious test for the Russian defence industry and the production capacities of our businesses.” Russia was (and still is) in desperate need for modernisation of production facilities.

During recent years (2004-2008), 92 per cent of China’s imports came from Russia. However, the volume (and hence the value) of Chinese imports began to wane in 2007-2008 owing to Beijing’s emphasis on indigenisation and exploration of buyers of Chinese military hardware. In fact before 1990 hardly any nation would depend on the quality of outdated Chinese weapons of Soviet design. The technology gap stands reduced considerably thereby affecting the Russian export and earning.

So far as India is concerned, New Delhi has been a traditional customer of Soviet and Russian weapons which have “accounted for 75 per cent of India’s import of major conventional weapons in the past 25 years”. Today, however, the new Russia does realise that the world armament market is no longer what it was three decades ago in the heydays of the old Soviet Union when India made a “huge advance” to the Moscow military to take up research and development and deliver the hardware after a gestation period. Recall the advance payment for the Su-30 fighters and the subsequent delivery of “green aircraft” to the 24 squadron of the Indian Air force!

Understandably, therefore, Russia is actively offering India “technology transfers and a cooperative development programme to replace more direct weapon sales”. An agreement in principle was signed in 2007 between India and Russia “for joint development of a new combat aircraft, PAFKA, an Indian version of which is planned for 2015/2016”.

According to SIPRI 2009: “India would have to pay some US $ 5 billion for the development phase alone.” Not unexpectedly, therefore, followed the report that “there is still considerable doubt about the whole project”. To quote Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister, Sergei Ivanov, it is a classical case of a “cash flow problem” wherein finding funds to cover producers’ costs until buyers pay for delivered products becomes problematic. Hence, insistence on the “advance payment.”

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Goshkov too, India had made an advance payment. But the delay and the ultimate “extra US $1.6 billion” proved to be an avoidable irritant between Moscow and New Delhi for several months. In reality, the Indo-Russian relations were affected by “quality problems” with Russian weapons such as “Krasnopol guided shells, delays in technology transfers for T-90 tanks and by major delays and demands for additional payments for the Su30-MKI fighters”. What, however, made things trickier was that unlike China, India has/had the option to acquire weapons from other suppliers.

Since post-Second World War Moscow emerged as one of the most formidable naval powers owing to its Admiral-cumDefence Minister Sergei Georgiyevich Gorshkov’s emphasis on building an indigenous ship building capability. So much so that the traditional superiority of the Anglo-Saxon navies was openly challenged as reflected by the frequent bylines in the media — “Red navy rises in the sea”. Besides main battle tanks and the various types of MiGs, Sukhois, Antonov, Ilyushins, Mils, Kamovs, Yakolevs and Beriev aircraft/rotorcraft, Moscow shipyards could produce ships from corvettes to carriers in a record time, both for domestic and for distant navies.

The demise of the USSR, however, inflicted a crippling blow to the sea power of Soviet navy. So much so that when the Russian Defence Ministry finalised its 2009-2011 “state defence order” in August 2008 with a planned delivery of Bulava submarine - launched ballistic missiles, it was realised: “This programme is years behind schedule and previous delivery dates have come and gone without orders being filled.”

According to Military Balance 2010, there exist “broader problems within Russia’s ship building industry”. In March 2007, when President Putin created the United Shipbuilding Company (USC) “with the intention of consolidating the entire Russian shipbuilding sector, including design bureaus, maintenance docks and major shipyards, into a single stateowned enterprise within three years”, who could have imagined a report emanating from the Independent Military Review, (July) 2009 that the Russian navy was facing an “irreversible collapse” owing to the “poor state of the shipbuilding industry”?

The situation, on date, continues to be pathetic, as the Russian shipyards, according to Military Balance 2010, are “incapable of producing warships in either the quantity or at the level of quality required by the navy”. To make matters transparently worse, the situation was acknowledged by the CommanderJuly 2010

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g DIPLOMACY in-Chief of the Russian Navy, Admiral Vladimir Vyostosky, who “declared that he did not want to waste billions of roubles repairing ageing ships that only had ten years of service life remaining, and that he was, therefore, openminded about the prospect of acquiring new ships from overseas manufacturers”. Seen in this background, one can understand the innumerable hassles the Indian navy faced pertaining to its purchase of old, accidentprone aircraft carrier Gorshkov from Moscow with heavy time and cost-overrun.

In perhaps the most poignant sign of trouble, Russians themselves are scouting for French and British amphibious-assault ships like Paris manufactured Mistral of DCNS Company and London’s BAE systems Albion class assault vessels. If indeed Russia does go for French or British ships, it would reveal that Moscow’s US$ 40 billion military hardware industry is withering alongside civilian manufacturing enterprise. It will also be Russia’s most significant acquisition of foreign weapons since the Second World War. Understandably, the defence community of Moscow is not amused at the prospect of foreign shopping list. According to Ruslan Pukhov, Director of Moscow’s Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, “There is no interesting military technology.

But it is very expensive. It will kill the budget for surface ships.”

But what is the present scenario vis-à-vis the Russian surface ships? Obsolete and obsolescence are the words. From producing dozens of frigates to destroyers per annum, the Moscow fleet is the shadow of its glorious past. Jane’s Fighting Ships 2009-2010 says it all. The last Akula class strategic missile submarine (SSBN) was commissioned on September 04, 1989; Delta IV (SSBN) in 1991; Delta III (SSBN) August 1981; Oscar II class attack submarine (SSGN) in February, 1997; Sierra I in September, 1984; Sierra II in 1990; Victor III in 1992; Kilo class patrol submarine

in January, 1994. Russia’s lone aircraft carrier Kuznetsov is 20 years young with erratic operational readiness and frequent dry dock maintenance. The solo 24300-tonne Kirov class cruiser took exactly 12 years to be commissioned. The three Slava class cruisers are all 1980s vintage. The single Kara class cruiser “Kerch is based in the Black Sea at Sevastopol and completed a refit in 2005”. It is now 36 years old. The sole Kashin class destroyer was commissioned 41 years ago. The last of the Udaloy class frigates completes 19 years, their “good seakeeping and endurance” and being the backbone of the fleet notwithstanding. The seventh (and the last) Sovremenny class destroyer has been doing duty since 16 years. All four Krivak class frigates joined the fleet between 1977 and 1981. However, there also are at least 18 major submarine and surface ships which have joined, or are on way to joining, the Russian navy since the beginning of the 21st century. Nevertheless, even a non-naval observer realises that this is not the old Moscow fleet which one knew of, producing state-of-art vessels by the dozen in record time thereby challenging the might of the western fleets from the Baltic to the Caribbean Sea and the South China Sea to the South Atlantic Ocean.

Questions could be asked as to what are reasons for the overall decay of Russian machines and the men behind thereof?

According to Military Balance 2010- “Negative demographic trends mean that the number of conscript-age males is declining.” Army General Nikolai Makarov points out: “In 2012 this number will be only half of the 2001 figure.”

Secondly, the “Russian armed forces’ inventory remains stocked with aging Soviet equipment, and there is currently limited capacity to finance and produce substantial numbers of modernised or replacement systems.” And finally, “corruption, crime and peacetime casualties within the Russian army had by 2008 grown substantially with the total num-

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ber of crimes committed by the military reported at 20425. Over 500 officers were prosecuted for corruption, including 117 senior commanding officers and 20 Generals. A further 604 servicemen died as a result of non-combat losses, with 331 committing suicide, often as a result of bullying.”

Since Russian armament and army are passing through a difficult time, where does India stand vis-à-vis her long-term military hardware supplier? Understandably India is mulling her options; with the long-time pariah, the USA emerging as a potential partner.

But, the lingering doubt still persists in some quarters, upgradation of India as the new “strategic partner” of Washington notwithstanding. SIPRI 2009 dissects the problem succinctly; “Two important barriers to increased arms imports from the USA remain. First, the USA demands for every sale an assurance that the weapons bought will be neither transferred to other foreign users nor used for purposes not agreed in the contracts without specific US permission”. While most arms exporters make a more or less similar demand, the USA also insists on the right to monitor end-use, including “intrusive inspections on the territory of the buyer.” The second “barrier is Indian insistence on offsets, including for technology transfers and Indian production lines.” This is simply not in consonance with the US government’s policies or US corporate philosophy, as “witnessed by the disagreement over technology transfers for the F-35 combat aircraft between the USA and even its closest allies.”

Russian fall in the arms bazaar, therefore, does not necessarily imply a smooth monopolistic rise of the US military machine in the Indian context. Surely not as yet!

(The author is an alumnus of the National Defence College of India and a Member of International Institute for Strategic Studies, London)

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Afghan Treasure Hunt

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F A recent report in the New York Times is to be believed, the US has discovered nearly $1 trillion in untapped mineral deposits in Afghanistan. Given the fact that Afghanistan has now a gross domestic product of about $12 billion, its hidden minerals, when extracted, will fundamentally alter the country's economy. In fact, the estimated value of the deposits almost matches India's GDP of $1.2 trillion.

The deposits under Afghan soil include iron, copper, cobalt, gold and industrial metals such as lithium, which is used in the manufacture of batteries for laptops and cell phones. So much so that a Pentagon memo has said that Afghanistan could become the "Saudi Arabia of lithium”.

It may sound quite interesting that Prakash Pentagon is showing interests in Afghan deposits. But then the fact remains that the New York Times story is based on extensive briefing by the Pentagon. And it is the Pentagon that had facilitated the setting-up of the Task Force for Business and Stability Operations (TFBSO) in Afghanistan, whose geologist members had surveyed Afghanistan's underground resources.

Of course, estimates and conjectures regarding Afghanistan's natural resources have been there since the early 1970s. Apart from the Americans, the Russians have also shown a keen interest on the subject. In fact, one of the theories behind the Russian intervention in Afghanistan in 1980 was to exploit its "oil and natural gas reserves", the resources which the latest survey overlooks. Americans, however, have been emphasising on non-oil mineral resources. Bonita Chamberlin, a geologist who spent 25 years working in Afghanistan, has identified 91 minerals, metals and gems at 1407 potential mining sites. She has written a book, Gemstones in Afghanistan, on the subject. And Chamberlain worked directly with the Pentagon.

Interestingly, however, no estimate, prior to the New York Times report, had measured the Afghan mineral wealth in a trillion dollar worth. The Pentagon had itself released a report only in April. In that report, it had just two paragraphs on TFBSO. "During a 12-week assessment," the Pentagon report stated, "over 50 members of TFBSO teams conducted more than 60 individual site visits throughout Afghanistan, assessing many critical sectors of the Afghan economy. Four strategic observations were made during the 12-week assessment: Lack of economic sovereignty, lack of emphasis on rural agriculture, lack of economic benefit from international

development, and lack of intra-Afghan commerce.

"Afghanistan must develop self-sustaining, indigenous revenue sources… Mining was specifically identified as a key area for economic development by the TFBSO because of its potential to attract foreign investment and generate significant government revenue.

The group noted that accelerating this development will create an indigenous revenue stream for Afghanistan, and ultimately economic sovereignty."

The relatively modest reference in the report to the possibility of "significant government revenue" contrasts strongly with the current hype over the TFBSO's findings. And that raises questions about the very timing of the latest report.

There are two possible explanations.

One is that President Obama's plan of military withdrawal from Afghanistan is Nanda not exactly working as the Taliban remains unvanquished and the Karzai government in Kabul continues to be hopelessly insecure and ineffective to hold together the country without the presence of NATO troops. In such a situation, if the Taliban returns to power, they will exploit all these minerals to be rich enough to buy secret and scary weapons, making the world more unsafe in the process. Viewed thus, the message that Pentagon has conveyed through the Times report is that the Americans, or for that matter the NATO allies, should be willingly prepared for a longer stay in Afghanistan.

The second possibility behind the over-hyped report is the effort to attract international interest in the mining sector before the auction in the next few weeks of the 1.8 billion-tonne iron-ore field in Hajigak region of Afghanistan, which could be worth $5 billion to $6 billion. It is believed that Afghan and Western officials want more companies to bid for Hajigak and other deposits to prevent China from gaining control over Afghanistan's natural resources through bids subsidised heavily by Beijing. Incidentally, China had won the Aynak copper mines in an international bid in Afghanistan in 2008 for a whopping $4 billion.

Interestingly, in 2009, five Indian companies, — Vedanta group's Sesa Goa, Essar Minerals, Ispat Industries, JSW Steel and Rashtriya Ispat Nigam — joined Chinese companies for a bid on the 1.8 billion tonne Hajigak iron-ore mines in the Hindu Kush Mountains. But, in January 2010, the Karzai government put the bids on hold as corruption concerns took over. In fact, the iron projects will have to be bid for again for the same reason.

Will Indian companies stand a chance? Only time will tell.

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