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THE CASE FOR A BIGGER UNDERWATER FLEET VOL II, ISSUE 2, JULY 2011

`100

D E F E N C E

D I P L O M A C Y

S E C U R I T Y

DEVELOPING OUR OWN DESPITE SCEPTICS, A REVAMPED DRDO PLANS TO SPRING TECHNOLOGICAL SURPRISES

The C-17 Globemaster III is the world’s most capable airlifter, able to perform the full range of both tactical and strategic airlift requirements.

Whether it’s transporting out-sized cargo and personnel or delivering humanitarian relief into virtually any environment, the C-17 provides oneof-a-kind mission flexibility. A world of capability and value, ready now.

C - 1 7 . T O D AY, M O R E T H A N E V E R .

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COVER STORY (P44)

Mixed Fortunes Notwithstanding its detractors, the achievements of the DRDO are considerable. But the organisation, which is supposed to be a proud testament of India’s indigenous capabilities, has to enhance its capabilities and deliver better products.

SPECIAL FEATURE (P20)

PERSPECTIVE (P8)

AIRBORNE CELEBRATION

PREVENTIVE DETERRENCE

As manufacturers showcase the best of their wares at the Paris Air Show, we get you a glimpse from the world’s oldest and largest aerial carnival.

Even as Pakistan deploys an increasing number of tactical nukes, should India have a rethink of its ‘no first strike’ rule?

FOCUS (P16)

DEF BIZ (P36)

INTERNAL SECURITY (P54)

INTREPID SURVIVOR

POWER LIFTER

BOVINE MENACE

Despite its troubled evolution, the Arjun tank programme has managed to reach the Mark II stage, thanks largely to the perseverance of the DRDO.

With the acquisition of the C-17 Globemaster-III transport aircraft, India has now acquired unique tactical lift capabilities.

Reeling under tremendous pressure to safeguard the frontier, the BSF finds itself hardpressed along the Indo-Bangladesh border due to cattle smugglers.

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July 2011

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SUBMARINE MUDDLE (P30)

IN STEALTH MODE (P58)

FISSILE EQUATION (P66)

LANKAN IMBROGLIO (P69)

As numbers fall sharply, India has to both import and manufacture indigenously to keep its submarine fleet fighting fit.

Fearing Osama-type raids on them, Maoist leaders and their cadres are now keeping a low profile.

As Pakistan continues to create hurdles for the FMCT, India needs to read the fine print before committing .

With Sinhala chauvinistic President Mahinda Rajapaksa in power, Tamils are finding it difficult to enter the Lankan mainstream.

SPOTLIGHT (P12) DESPERATE PITCH With its aircraft out of the MMRCA race, Lockheed Martin of the US is now dangling the F-35 carrot in front of the Indian Air Force.

DIPLOMACY (72)

RE-ELECTION BLUES

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Editor-in-Chief

FRANCE’S PRESIDENT SARKOZY

K SRINIVASAN

IS EXPLOITING THE WAR IN LIBYA

Editor

TO BOOST HIS IMAGE AND EVEN

PRAKASH NANDA

SHOWCASE FRENCH ARMAMENTS

Managing Editor

GEOPOLITICS

IN HIS BID TO SCORE WITH THE

TIRTHANKAR GHOSH Consulting Editor

Assistant Editor

SAURAV JHA

JUSTIN C MURIK

Senior Correspondent

FRENCH ELECTORATE.

ROHIT SRIVASTAVA

Publishing Director

Director (Corporate Affairs

ROHIT GOEL

RAJIV SINGH

Conceptualised and designed by Newsline Publications Pvt. Ltd., from D-11 Basement, Nizamuddin (East), New Delhi -110 013, Tel: +91-11-41033381-82 for NEWSEYE MEDIA PVT. LTD. All information in GEOPOLITICS is derived from sources we consider reliable. It is passed on to our readers without any responsibility on our part. Opinions/views expressed by third parties in abstract or in interviews are not necessarily shared by us. Material appearing in the magazine cannot be reproduced in whole or in part(s) without prior permission. The publisher assumes no responsibility for material lost or damaged in transit. The publisher reserves the right to refuse, withdraw or otherwise deal with all advertisements without explanation. All advertisements must comply with the Indian Advertisements Code. The publisher will not be liable for any loss caused by any delay in publication, error or failure of advertisement to appear.

Owned and published by K Srinivasan, 4C Pocket-IV, Mayur Vihar, Phase-I, Delhi-91 and printed by him at Nutech Photolithographers, B-240, Okhla Industrial Area, Phase-I, New Delhi-110020.

Readers are welcome to send their feedback at geopolitics@newsline.in.

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{GOLDENEYE}

g Officer’s summer job

Can’t accept Army’s command

COME SUMMER and the expectations of fellow officers and friends from the Army officers changes. The monthlong summer vacation is time for yearly getaways from the scorching heat of India to Himalayan heights. The friendly officers, who are stationed at the units at tourist locations, come very handy in securing the elusive guest houses.

Thanks to the Raj, most of the best scenic places in India are under Army control as cantonments. The officers in integrated headquarters can be seen talking about who can do the necessary arrangements for visits. Long-lost friends and course mates are called up and holidays are planned according to the availability of rooms in Army guest houses. An officer was jokingly advised not to try for a particular posting since he might have to do a travel agent’s job for around two months. Who says Army men don’t get the perks — only some perks are not listed in the government contract?

Supersonic face-lift Bhai maan gaye Pillai saab. Jo apne nahin kiya, aapka chela Pathak ne kar dikaya. Kya renovation kiya apne Press Club ka. And to cap it, all you were there when Raksha Mantri AK Anthony cut the ribbon. Bhai this is too good. But to be fair, the renovation has been widely acclaimed by anyone who has visited the Press Club — it’s subtle, it’s sophisticated and has plenty of class. As the Americans would say, it reeks of chutzpah!

Of course, it helps that plenty of those running the Press Club and, frankly, doing a great job at it, either cover defence or did handle the portfolio sometime in the past, so they know the Raksha Parivar well. But why on earth was the function held at 9 am in the morning is something that one will never know? Maybe that’s the time that Anthony chose; less questions to answer and few nosey parker journos to fend off. But one thing is for sure, Brahmos may not do well in the business of missiles, but they sure will do damn well in the interior decoration business. And with Pathakji’s redoubtable PR and Marketing skills, they should do very well as far as bottom line goes. Sounds good- Brahmos Interior Decorators!

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THE ARMY, which is very conscious of the assertive Chinese military on the borders, has again pushed for operational command of the Indo-Tibet Border Police (ITBP) after a gap of five years. But the idea had no takers. The Army feels that for better management of the hostile borders there should be a single chain of command. However, the Ministry of Home under the influence of a heavy IPS lobby is not ready to buy the idea.

Thus, status quo will prevail. The point of contention is that the DIG rank IPS officers who come to the paramilitary on deputation don’t want to report to any Army commander. Their biggest fear is that they will be made to do what they have never done nor can they do in their middle age: the regular visit to forward posts and leading the operation from the front.

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g Tourism issues WHAT DO two governments’ top officials talk when they meet for formal talks? Dumb question, you may say. But not quite. Everything is possible when India and Pakistan are talking. This is precisely what happened when Indo-Pak Defence Secretaries met in New Delhi for the two-day-long formal talks on May 30-31, 2011. The two countries’ media was agog with reports that the two Defence Secretaries — India’s Pradeep Kumar and Pakistan’s Lt Gen (Retired) Syed Athar Ali — would be taking forward discussions on Siachen Glacier and Sir Creek disputes.

However, there was no political clearance from the two governments and both the Secretaries and their delegations were aware of the reality. It was a foregone conclusion that the two Defence Secretaries would not make any forward movement on the 27-year-old Siachen Glacier dispute and this is what actually happened.

In fact, the real talks were over in minutes. Both sides reiterated their known and oft-reiterated respectively stated positions. Both sides agreed to disagree. Then the “talks” meandered to discussions about the sightseeing that the Pakistani delegates had in India. The Pakistani delegation had arrived in India on May 28 evening.

Normally, the foreign delegation arrives an evening before the talks. There is definitely nothing wrong with the Pakistani delegation arriving earlier than usual. India extended warm hospitality and the Pakistani delegates used this opportunity to visit the Taj. The two sides had a healthy debate on which fort’s periphery wall was higher: the fort at Agra or the one at Lahore!

The indecisiveness on part of the government was wellknown across the ministries and the DGMO was tight lipped about the matter as the Indian army has already said so in no uncertain terms to block the options of the MEA. Former officers added to the effort by writing pieces at the behest of the Army.

Minister for talking When you have a Raksha Mantri who believes that mumbling his way through press conferences and speaking in monosyllables is being statesmanlike, then it is inevitable that someone will fill the vacuum. In this case, it is the Minister of State for Defence Production M M Pallam Raju. Not only does this low-key politician from Andhra Pradesh speak well, but he is also pretty easy in off-the-cuff comments.

Many in the government are completely tongue-tied when they are confronted by a marauding band of TV microphones, not so Pallam Raju. He can pass off a sentence or two with the professorial air of a statesman. Reminds you of Swaran Singh who once spoke for hours at the UN without outlining an iota of policy and literally made Zulfikar Bhutto cry!

The general sense among the scribes after every press conference of the MoD is that Antony as usual says nothing. It seems that all the senior officers emulate the Minister as their role model when it comes to talking to media, who responds with, one liners like, ‘We are examining the matter’ or ‘You will come to know’.

The outgoing Air Force chief is an exception, who keeps giving bytes that scribes simply love.

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PERSPECTIVE

NEW TOY IN PAKISTAN’S NUCLEAR SHOP There is no need for India to change its nuclear doctrine even after Pakistan's recent threat of using "tactical nuclear weapons" against us in future battles, argues MANPREET SETHI

FLAWED DOCTRINE: Pak plan to use tactical nukes is based on the assumption that India won't retaliate with nuclear weapons

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P

akistan has a well-thought out and intelligently crafted nuclear strategy. The role for its nuclear weapons is very clear. Its primary task is not to deter the nuclear weapons of the adversary, but to avoid having to engage with a conventionally superior military, the possibility of which could arise as a result of its pursuit of provocative acts of terrorism against India. It is now well established and internationally accepted that the use of terrorism has been and remains a critical tool of Pakistani foreign policy. Once it acquired nuclear weapons, it was further assumed that the low-cost policy supported by a virtually endless supply of terrorists could continue without fear of any response since the possibility of escalation to the nuclear level would stop India from taking any major step even at the conventional level. Pakistan further fanned these fears, particularly for the international audience, by projecting a low nuclear threshold and a tendency for unpredictable or irrational behaviour. This has been the manner in which it has sought to establish deterrence with India. And in so doing, Islamabad has been engaged in building what it conceives as a necessary arsenal for such a deterrent strategy.

In order to maintain a low nuclear threshold, Pakistan has naturally opted for a firstuse nuclear strategy, whereby it suggests the use of the nuclear weapon against an Indian

conventional strike. Pakistani nuclear doctrine, in this regard, draws heavily from NATO's nuclear doctrine of Cold War when it was faced with the requirement of deterring Warsaw Pact's superior conventional capability. NATO adopted a first-use doctrine and deployed tactical nuclear weapons in Europe as a means of seeking broad-spectrum deterrence at conventional and nuclear levels. Pakistan appears to be following the same logic and is heading in the same direction of investing in battlefield nuclear war fighting. From a Pakistani perspective, such a deterrent strategy appears to be its best defence against the superior capability of the Indian military.

Some of the recent developments in Pakistani nuclear capability become more understandable when seen from this

TO MAINTAIN A LOW NUCLEAR THRESHOLD, PAKISTAN HAS OPTED FOR A FIRST-USE NUCLEAR STRATEGY

NO FIRST USE: The threshold for Indian nuclear strikes is stated as any kind of first use “on Indian territory or on Indian forces anywhere�.

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perspective. Pakistan is reportedly adding rapidly to its stockpile of nuclear warheads as well as fissile material and also undertaking tests of delivery systems of the very short-range variety. In April this year, the Hatf IX or Nasr, a nuclear-capable missile, with a range of no more than 60 kilometres was test-fired. The press release on this event explained the development of the Nasr as a measure "to add deterrence value to Pakistan's strategic weapons development programme at shorter ranges". It also cryptically described the missile as being able to carry "nuclear warheads of appropriate yield with high accuracy, shoot and scoot attributes".

Obviously, such a system could only be a battlefield weapon and many strategic analysts, within Pakistan as also in the US, have described it as a measure to specifically counter the Indian Cold Start strategy. The Pakistani official statement itself clarifies: "This quick response system addresses the need to deter evolving threats." The premise is that if Indian troops were to make any shallow thrusts into Pakistani territory in case of a terrorist strike, then they could face the possible use of a small nuclear weapon mounted on such a missile. Some of the possible purposes to undertake such an attack could be to shock, create a sense of further danger, signal initiative, determination or even recklessness so as to intimidate India, make it pause and dare it to react with escalation.

While these Pakistani motivations are quite understandable, perhaps, the folly of undertaking this course is not so evident to Rawalpindi. A first strike/use strategy poses many challenges in execution. Implicit in the threat of first use is the message, "Don't push me hard, because in response not only will I use the weapon first, but I will also be able to get away with the use of the nuclear weapon." It is worth exploring how Pakistan might think this could be achieved, and then to point out some of the shortcomings and dangers in such thinking.

There are essentially two ways in which first strike could be made credible. The first of these could be by building an arsenal which is large enough to be able to degrade the adversary's retaliatory capability to such an extent that it cannot cause the first user unacceptable damage in response. During the Cold War, the US deterrent strategy was driven by this logic and we saw an arsenal of nearly 30,000 weapons in the hope that a disarming or a substantively degrading first strike was possible. Besides, there were all kinds of developments motivated by thinking encapsulated in the "Kissinger doctrine" that argued for the creation of separate July 2011

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g PERSPECTIVE strategic and tactical nuclear forces. As he opined in his 1969 book Nuclear Weapons and Foreign Policy, training, weapon systems and doctrine for limited war is different from all-out strategic war and hence he advocated: “The strategic force should not be utilised for limited war, because by training and doctrine it is not suited for it…” The US did go down this path a considerable distance before realising the folly of it. So, is Pakistan going to make the same mistake of building an arsenal that it feels could be capable of disarming India of its retaliatory capability? Is that possible?

The second manner in which first strike could be made credible is by conveying the message that the first strike with the nuclear weapon would be of such a nature as to get by under the adversary's threshold of retaliation by forcing him to terminate the war but not causing enough damage to justify retaliation, or at least not of the massive variety.

Therefore, it would be able to simultaneously perform the tasks of retaining the upper hand on use of nuclear weapon and bring about war termination, while also ensuring damage limitation to own territory. In this context, it is hardly surprising that Pakistan should have tested the new 60-kilometre SRBM (Short-Range Ballistic Missiles) to signal the seriousness of its first use against the possibility of Indian soldiers making shallow incursions into its territory. In fact, in such a

IT NEEDS TWO TO PLAY THE GAME OF LIMITED NUCLEAR WAR, INDIA SHOULD DECLINE THE PAK OFFER conceived use of the nuclear-tipped missile, its military effectiveness may be of very little importance to the Pakistanis. The message they would be seeking to send through the game of brinkmanship would be targeted fully and completely at the political level.

The action would be meant to convey a continued threat of violence to invoke fear and to intimidate with the threat of further expansion of the scope of nuclear strikes in case of an Indian response. Therefore, the purpose of introducing the nuclear weapons would certainly not be to redress balance on the battlefield, but to make the war too painful or too dangerous to continue by suggesting an expanding exchange of violence that would go beyond the limited combat casualties or material losses inflicted by the small-yield weapons.

The Pakistani use of the low-yield nuclear weapons against a military target would be based on the assumption that this may not invoke nuclear retaliation from India. In some writings by Pakistani analysts, this has, in fact, been recommended as a more moral use of the weapon as against a counter-value use. A second assumption could be that the international community would stop India from nuclear retaliation. And thirdly, that a soft nation like India would rather settle to terminate the war than raise the level of escalation to risk more Pakistani attacks on Indian cities. Each one of these assumptions, however, could prove to be wrong. The behavior of India and the international community after the use of a nuclear weapon, irrespective of the target and the yield of the weapon, or even the extent of damage suffered, could turn out to be completely contrary to Pakistani assumptions.

What should be India's response to these Pakistani developments? As far as any changes in the Indian doctrine or nuclear arsenal specific to this move is concerned, there appears to be no requirement for any change. India has long maintained that it has no interest in nuclear war fighting — whether with small-yield weapons on the battlefield or with large bombs on cities. The purpose of the Indian nuclear weapon is narrow and limited to safeguarding the country against nuclear coercion, blackmail or its

IN THE LINE OF FIRE: From a Pakistani perspective, a first strike with nuclear weapons appears to be its best defence against the superior capability of the Indian military

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A dangerous game On April 19, 2011, Pakistan demonstrated a missile system, which could be a game-changer in any land battle in future. The missile is a short-range surface-to-surface ballistic missile with a range of sixty kilometres. The multi-barrel rocket system, which can carry a nuclear warhead, has brought a new dawn in the tactical capability of the Pakistani nuclear arsenal.

According to Pakistan's Inter Services' Public Relations: “The Nasr ballistic missile carries nuclear warheads of appropriate yield with high accuracy and shoot-and-scoot attributes. This quick response system addresses the need to deter evolving threats.”

Lt. Gen. (Retd.) Khalid Ahmed Kidwai, Director-General of Pakistan's Strategic Plans Division, reportedly described the Nasr as “a milestone in consolidating Pakistan's strategic deterrence capability at all levels of the threat spectrum”.

Now, with this missile, Pakistan is ensuring to put another level of deterrence to any future Indian adventure.

Pakistan believes that India is acquiring conventional assets to fight a short localised war under the nuclear umbrella. With Nasr Pakistan intends to deter India from launching its Cold Start.

However, Indian strategic experts find it hard to accept the Pakistani rationale. First, since Hatf IX will be launched on an advancing column of the Indian Army, in all probability the missile will be used within Pakistan's territory, thus bringing its own population under threat. Secondly, if this is used against India in Indian territory, it will be considered a nuclear attack and as per Indian nuclear doctrine, India will go for 'inflicting unacceptable damage' in its second retaliatory strike.Thus, Nasr has indeed brought down the nuclear threshold in the subcontinent.

Unfortunately, the world has not taken due cognisance of this new nuclear missile of Pakistan. The tactical nuclear weapon is going to thin down the Pakistan nuclear command and control system. The Pakistan nuclear weapons, after the operationalisation Haft IX, will come to be used by a very low level of army's command. This makes it vulnerable to jihadi elements.

Rohit Srivastava www.geopolitics.in

THAWING THE COLD START: Recent induction of tactical nuclear weapons by Pakistan is aimed at blunting the ‘Cold Start’ doctrine of the Indian Army possible use. The path it has chosen to achieve this is through the suggestion of deterrence by punishment. This strategy seeks to deter nuclear use by conveying a certainty of retaliation in response to a first use, irrespective of its yield or choice of target. In that sense, the threshold for Indian nuclear use is very clearly stated as any kind of first use “on Indian territory or on Indian forces anywhere.” The response from India has been described in the Cabinet Committee on Security's Review of Operationalisation of India's Nuclear Doctrine as being “designed to inflict unacceptable damage”. For India, therefore, any use of the nuclear weapon would have strategic implications and would invoke a punitive response. The focus of the Indian nuclear arsenal must hence continue remain on ensuring credibility through survivability of reliable delivery systems of adequate ranges.

Another action that is necessary would be to conduct effective nuclear signaling since it is well known that credible nuclear deterrence is derived as much from capability as from communication of the resolve to use that capability. It, therefore, rests on the

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removal of all doubt from the mind of the adversary that any misadventure by him would result in assured retaliation of the kind that would inflict unacceptable costs on him. The effective communication of strength of resolve can go a long way in addressing some the assumptions that seem to be underpinning Pakistani moves.

In nuclear strategy, it is not essential to respond to every move of the adversary. While the developments certainly need to be monitored, the initiative must be retained by self, while responding to them instead of it becoming an automatic response to follow the trends set in motion by the other side. India is not interested in fighting a nuclear war, whether of the limited and tactical variety or a larger strategic exchange. This is the message that should go out loud and clear. It needs two to play the game of limited nuclear war, and India should politely decline the Pakistani offer. ( The author heads the Project on Nuclear Security at the Centre for Air Power Studies, New Delhi.)

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SPOTLIGHT F-35

I

T all started when the US Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC) asked the American Defense Department to study the ‘desirability and feasibility 'of an F-35 sale to India.

Almost immediately the Indian media was awash with speculation about the F-35 Lightning II being offered by the Americans as a ‘very late entrant’ into the Medium Multi-role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) tender. Nevertheless, recent noises emanating from the United States certainly suggest that Lockheed Martin (LM) is considering a sales pitch for its still in-development F-35 Lightning II stealth fighter to the Indian Air Force. There are also reports that preliminary presentations have already been made to the IAF since at least 2010 on this score and a broader campaign is on the anvil.

The reports were no doubt aided by Patrick Dewar, LM’s Senior Vice President for Corporate Strategy and Business Development, observing on the sidelines of the Paris Air Show that the SASC report accompanying the Pentagon’s 2012 budget “opened the window to fifth-generation fighter technology release to India, however the Indian services want to deal with it”.

Dewar believed it was possible and that India could re-open the process and that it “might think differently about the competition” were the F-35 to be made available.

Incidentally, the SASC request for a Pentagon study on selling F-35s to India is part of a broader amendment that was “overwhelmingly adopted” by the same and is a

F-35

FOR MMRCA?

There are a number of serious problems with the US Senate’s suggestion that Lockheed Martin’s F- 35 fighter aircraft should be considered by India for the MMRCA tender. From the IAF’s point of view, it is much more logical to think of the F-35 as an aircraft that it could put into service in the 2020s with a view to having a greater percentage of stealth aircraft than that of China, argues SAURAV JHA www.geopolitics.in

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so-called “Item of Special Interest” that takes effect immediately after the bill report is issued. This means that it doesn’t need Senate approval and “takes effect regardless of what happens to the bill itself' —in a way indicating the seriousness with which certain constituencies in America have started pushing the case of an F-35 sale to India.

An MMRCA bid this late in the day seems a little unlikely though. As the Indian Ministry of Defence (MoD) noted in reponse to being questioned about such a possibility: “We have progressed a lot in the MMRCA programmeme, we have crossed a lot of stages that have become part of history.” Indeed, allowing the F-35 into the MMRCA competition at this stage would essentially mean scrapping whatever has

AERIAL MARVEL: The F-35 brings some revolutionary characteristics to the field of modern air warfare

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STEALTH FOR OUR NAVY?

I

n its defence budget of 2011, the US government has earmarked $6.8 billion for the procurement of 42 F-35 “Joint Strike Fighters” ( JSF). Of these, seven F-35 will be naval versions, known as F 35C. The F-35 JSF has three versions: for Navy (F -35C), Air Force (F-35A) and Marine Corps (F-35B), with 70-90 per cent commonality among all three versions for operational and tactical mission purposes. The three versions also have common high-cost components like engine, avionics, major airframe structural components, etc. The joint approach has saved the US government around $15 billion.

The US Navy is procuring the F-35C as the next-generation, carrier-based fighter. With its conventional take-off and landing capabilities, the F-35C is designed to operate from aircraft carriers and the US Navy plans to operate the fighter along with the F/A 18E/F, in a

happened till now and begin the process all over again which could mean a delay of five years or more before the deal is done and a few more years for deliveries to commence if at all.

Because even if by some stroke of luck the Indian MoD completed the process much quicker than usual and the F-35 was selected, it is clear that deliveries to India would have to be given priority over other JSF partner nations (the F-35 is descended from the X-35, the product of the Joint Strike Fighter [ JSF] programmeme. JSF development is being principally funded by the United States, with the United Kingdom and other partner governments providing additional funding. The partner nations are either NATO members or close US allies), if the first IAF F-35 has to see light of the day in the 2010s. That in turn would be irregular and may not go down well with JSF partner countries such as Norway, which is scheduled to receive an initial batch of four aircraft in 2016 with the remaining delivery of 52 aircraft commencing only in 2018.

For argument’s sake, if India were to be given precedence on account of the size of the MMRCA programmeme, one must keep in mind that the USAF version or the F-35 A (most likely version to be offered to India) is slated to complete initial operational

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high-low mix- high-capability, high-cost aircraft with low-capability low-cost fighters. This will also be the US Navy's first stealth aircraft.

The F-35 C has a combat radius of 600 nautical miles, significantly longer than the other two versions with a logistic footprint of around 46,000 cubic feet or 243 short tonne (1 short tonne=2000 pounds). The US government assessment is that the 'C' version is 95 per cent mission reliable. With its maximum takeoff weight of 70000 pounds, it carries a payload of around 20000 pounds. Powered by a single engine — the Pratt and Whitney 135 — that has a thrust-toweight ratio of 1.01 with 50 per cent of fuel, the F 35 can fly at a maximum speed of Mach 1.6.

The Indian Navy, it may be noted, has requested for “information” from Lockheed about the aircraft for its next 64000tonne indigenous aircraft carrier.

Rohit Srivastava

capability (IOC) only in 2018 even as low rate of initial production (LRiP) deliveries have begun to it. As the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) recorded in 2010, only 4 per cent of the testing parameters had been fully met at the time. The testing phase has, however, got a move on since then, but the 2018 date still seems the likely date for IOC. On paper, the F-35 certainly brings some revolutionary characteristics to the field of modern air warfare. The F-35's fifth-generation characteristics are not confined to its stealthy design and materials giving it very low observability (VLO) at least in the head-on aspect. Where LM truly proposes to make the F-35 game changing is in the realm of avionics and sensor capability.

However making these cutting-edge elements work requires huge amounts of software that in turn needs to be debugged.

Indeed, most of the challenges facing the F-35 programmeme are software-related and at the moment the F-35 A has a mean time between failure of only 1.4 hours with a lot of the software being tested on surrogate platforms.

In fact, given the contemporary nature of the jet, there is the whole question of whether Indian industry is equipped to handle the range of technologies that go July 2011

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into making the F-35. After all, during the MMRCA trial phase, LM had touted the F-16IN as a “stepping stone” to fifth-generation technology (i.e the F-35) thereby implying that producing the F-16IN under transfer of technology (ToT) would have made India ready for the F-35.

Moreover, the former US Ambassador’s observations on a visit to HAL as learnt from Wiki Leaks would suggest that the Americans think that Indian aerospace production facilities are a few decades behind theirs.

In such a situation one definitely has to think about the kind of industrial capability the US would be willing to share with India to make an F-35 sale worth its while.

The MMRCA competition is not simply about getting access to the latest generation of aircraft, it's about crafting together an industrial partnership while buying an aircraft that best suits the needs of the IAF. It is an attempt via the offsets regime to broad base the Indian aerospace sector to an extent whereby complex aircraft projects can be executed without the huge troubles of the past.

Essentially, it is a strategic decision with a view to enhancing geo-economic capabilities. In a way, the MMRCA is a ‘glide path’ to putting in place the kind of eco-system that will no longer creates doubts about whether India can build an aircraft analogous to the F-35 in terms of materials and machining. Therefore, jumping straight to the F-35 would mean that India would have to leapfrog quite a few stages in terms of industrial capability and that would mean far greater hand holding from America to another country's aerospace sector than it has displayed anytime in the past.

Now, more delays to simply accommodate the F-35 would also defeat the very rationale for the MMRCA purchase in the first place — shoring up dwindling IAF squadron numbers. One would recall that the bid to induct an MMRCA is itself a modification of IAF plans going back to the post-Kargil scenario when it simply wanted to purchase some seven squadrons of Mirage 2000s. However, Dassault chose to www.geopolitics.in

EXPENSIVE PROPOSITION:F-35 already costs about $133 million per unit, which is fifty per cent more than what is outlaid for the MMRCA shut down the Mirage 2000 line in favour of the Rafale before the lumbering Indian bureaucracy could get up to speed with the IAF's wishlist and then the procurement was turned into an international competition, which continues to this day. Given the fact that a two-front war with Pakistan and China cannot be ruled out many would think that the jets were needed yesterday.

In the light of all this, it is much more logical to think of the F-35 as an aircraft that the IAF could put into service in the next decade i.e the 2020s, if found suitable that is. Realistically speaking, instead of speculating about the F-35s entry into the MMRCA tender any offer is better evaluated in terms of India joining the F-35 programme with a view to having a greater percentage of stealth aircraft than it plans

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to at the moment in the 20252045 timeframe.

But why would India want to do that? Well, it ultimately depends on the trajectory of the Chinese Air Force (formerly the People's Liberation Army Air Force). Current projections seem to suggest that the CAF is on course to have a fleet composed entirely of fourth and fifth-generation fighters by the 2020s. Developments such as the J-20 certainly need to be taken into account as also the likelihood that the Pakistani Air Force may be recapitalised by the Chinese with greater number of contemporary aircraft.

Moreover collaborating with the Americans could serve as a hedge to delays in the Indo-Russian Fifth-Generation Fighter programmeme and result in greater access to technologies that could make the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) more ambitious in scope.

None of this would come cheap, naturally. The F-35 for instance already costs about $ 133 million per unit (50 per cent more than the probable price of the MMRCA winner) and this does not include the cost of weapons that would need to be inducted tailor-made for internal carriage by the F-35. Indeed, one must keep in perspective that any hypothetical F-35 would mean an outlay of around 60 per cent more for the same number of aircraft.

At the end of the day, the very move by US industry to offer the F-35 is in some ways a recognition of India’s growing “space” in the international arena. The nature of the offer shows that India's options for securing strategic technologies may indeed be broadening. Ironically though, if India were to actually take up this offer and re-open the MMRCA tender then it would probably lead to a view that India is susceptible to US pressure and considerably reduce international confidence in the sanctity of Indian defence procurement. Clearly, India has to stick to its doctrine of “balance of interests” in this case as well.

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VALIANT SURVIVOR: The Arjun tank programme has endured because of the DRDO’s perseverance

BE INDIAN TO BUILD INDIAN

The Defence Research and Development Organisation is going to roll out a more potent and indigenised variant of the Arjun tank in three years. But Arjun’s journey so far has not been smooth and unless the Indian Army goes for a bigger order, the tank may not be economical to persist with, writes ROHIT SRIVASTAVA

Here is the history of Arjun’s painful evolution 1974: The Arjun tank project begins to replace the Russian T-54 and T-72 tanks.

2004-2009: First 45 tanks delivered to the Indian army.

1996-1997: Prototypes undergo extensive trials and Army finds the performance below standards.

1974

1988-1989

1988-1989: Two prototypes undergo automotive trials, revealing deficiencies in mobility, engine, and transmission. www.geopolitics.in

1996-1997

2000

2000: The Indian Army orders 124 Arjuns expected to cost US$471.2 million.

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2004-2009

2005

2005: During summer trials Army reports that the Arjun suffers major problems with its main gun sight, suspension system, and fire control system.

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I

NDIA’S QUEST for an indigenous main battle tank (MBT) is a long saga of delays and despair. The indigenous Arjun is one of the most-tested and closely-scrutinised tanks in the world.

After almost seven years of trials, the Army finally placed its second order in 2010. The Arjun MBT is currently operational with the 140 Armoured Brigade in Jaisalmer. So far, the Indian Army has ordered 248 tanks in two separate orders of 124 tanks each, with each tank costing `16.8 crore.

The Arjun tank project of the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) began in 1974, and was originally aimed to replace the Russian T-54 and T-72 tanks, which made up the bulk of the country’s armoured firepower. But continuous delays forced the Indian Army to look for contemporary tanks to replace the T-72s. Though India still operates the T-72, it bought the T90S as a replacement. In fact, the Russian T90S will continue to be the mainstay of India’s future tank-fleet in the foreseeable future.

In the meantime, the Arjun has been continuously upgraded and modernised because of the mid-project specifications changes sought by the Army. The result is that the Arjun now is not exactly a fully indigenous project. Imported components such as the engine/power pack, gunner’s main sight, and other elements account for 58 per cent of each tank’s cost. The Army was never happy with its design and performance, including its fire control system, suspension issues, and poor mobility due to excessive weight.

It may be noted that the Arjun has grown from a 40-tonne tank with a 105mm gun, to a 58.5-tonne tank with a 120mm gun. Predictably, project costs spiraled up from `15.5 crore in 1974 to `306 crore (INR 3.06 billion) in 2010. The Army accepted the tank only after a third-party audit by an international

tank manufacturer (this was demanded by the DRDO), and orders were strictly limited to begin with. So much so that in July 2008, India had announced that production of the Arjun would be capped at the already-committed total of 124 vehicles.

If the Arjun tank has survived, it is because of the DRDO’s perseverance. In fact, the DRDO has also nurtured a grievance against the Army that it was deliberately stalling the tank’s progress because of its refusal to conduct side-by-side tests with the Russian tanks.

It insisted that a 500-vehicle order will give it

ARJUN HAS BEEN CONSTANTLY UPGRADED BECAUSE OF CHANGES IN SPECIFICATIONS

BY THE ARMY the volumes needed to iron out all production difficulties and provide a platform for future development. It was only in May 2010 that the Army changed course somewhat, following desert trials alongside the T-90S in which Arjun came out better. The Army doubled the order to 248, of which half are believed to have been delivered by the DRDO by June 2011.

On August 9, 2010, in a written Parliamentary reply to BP Tarai and Prabodh Panda, Defence Minister AK Antony confirmed: “ The Indian Army is placing an order for 124 Arjun Tanks Mark-II in addition to the equal number of Mark-I ordered earlier.” And early this year, DRDO chief VK Saraswat said that

2006: Army trials show that overheating persists and subsystems are rendered useless by the Arjun's high peak internal temperature, which is beyond 55 degrees Celsius.

2006

2008: Indian Army signs a deal with Russia to import 347 T-90 tanks and license build a further 1000.

2007

2008

2007: Major General H.M. Singh, a director in charge of trial and evaluation, says 2006 user field trial report had certified the accuracy and consistency of weapon system. www.geopolitics.in

he was ready to replace the German engine on the current version of the tank with an Indian power plant and the new variant (Arjun Mark-II) would have 90 per cent indigenous components.

This upgrade is based on the technology that the DRDO has acquired in the last decade or so. The upgrade, it may be noted, is not part of Army Staff Quality Requirements (ASQR) made for Arjun. Speaking to Geopolitics, a highly-placed source in DRDO said, “We follow ASQR. The tank which we provided was exactly as per the Army’s wish.

But since ASQR was formed, a lot has changed in tank technology and we have the capability to provide latest technology in the upgraded version of the tank.”

The Arjun Mark-II version has had 56 different upgrades. Army sources suggest that these tanks will undergo seven months of trials, which will be completed by the middle of next year. DRDO officials are confident that most of Army complaints will be remedied in the Mark-II version.

Experts say that the evolving battlefield scenario plays an important role in designing any weapon system. India inducted the T-72 in 1974, the year the Arjun programme began. DRDO officials complain that by not chalking out a clear strategy of how it wanted to fight, the Army also has played a role in delaying the project.

But the Army has a different take on it. Col Jaibans Singh (Retd), an armoured officer and analyst, said, "It is an evolutionary process. With time, the requirements change. When any system takes decades to come up, which is equal to a generation in technology, forces are bound to change quality requirements. Thus, with changed requirements, the development gets further delayed. Unfortunately it’s a vicious cycle.”

Protection, mobility and lethality are the

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2010: Army places an order for an additional 124 tanks on May 17, 2010.

2010 2010: Arjun performs well when pitted against T-90 in comparative trials.

2010

2011

2011: Arjun enters service with the Indian Army and inducted into the 75th Armoured Regiment in Jaisalmer.

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VAUNTED WEAPON: The much-delayed Arjun programme is a tarnished but nonetheless proud measure of India’s technological prowess parameters on which any tank design is optimised. These three are interconnected with one another and emphasis on one will have an adverse impact over the others. Thus, the war doctrine plays a key role in the finalising the design. For instance, tanks of USSR/Russia are designed for mobility and lethality in the European steppes. Russians believe in fielding cheaper tanks that can move fast and have good firepower. Protection was not the major consideration. On the other hand, the situation is different for a country like Israel. Being a small nation with limited resources, its tanks are well protected and designed to defend any position under severe attack. Here lethality and protection are main considerations. For the Indian Army, it seems speed and lethality are the prime requisites.

Keeping this in mind, in the Mark-II version, the Ajun will witness the replacement of Kanchan armour with explosive reactive armour-armour over the composite/metal plate, which reacts to the warhead. The conventional armour of the tanks cannot protect tanks against a tandem (two warheads — one smaller which explodes first and destroys armour and the next, a warhead that penetrates the armour) of Anti-Tank Guided Missiles (ATGMs). To counter these warheads, explosive reactive armour (ERA) is employed where the first layer reacts to blast and explodes deflecting the next warhead. All modern tanks employ ERA and it was muchneeded on our tanks as our main adversaries have been deploying the latest ATGMs. The Army has asked for provision of mine plow in PhaseII. Every tank will not be equipped with the mine plow but there will be www.geopolitics.in

THE ARJUN HAS GROWN FROM A 40-TONNE TANK WITH A 105MM GUN, TO A 58.5TONNE TANK WITH A 120MM GUN provisions. The PhaseII upgrade will demonstrate this capability to plow out underground anti-tank mines. Another protection measure that will be added in this phase will be laser warning and counter- measure systems. This will be an automatic system where the system will react to any laser beam targeting the tank.

Laser beams are used as guidance system by ATGM and precision munitions to designate any target. The laser counter-measure will automatically fire smoke guns which will block the laser beam thus deflecting the missile from the tank. The system will be automatic but it will also have provision for manual handling.

Arjun’s transportability was one of the major concerns of the Army. Its weight of nearly 60 tonnes is the major impediment in the mass induction into the Army. The Arjun is a misfit on rail tracks and its size can destabilise a train at bends. This has made Arjun permanently fixed in the deserts of Rajasthan.

Col Jaibans says, “Arjun’s size and weight are not in accordance with rail tracks and new

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tracks cannot be designed specially for Arjun.

Therefore, Arjun cannot be part of our strike core.”

However, DRDO officials believe that the bridge-laying system ‘Sarvatra’ can sustain a weight of up to 70 tonnes. They explain that in today’s warfare no one moves through main roads and the river bridges as the enemy can easily target them. Therefore, Arjun can be used in the plains where the “tank column” will move on through the ‘Sarvatra’ system.

Speaking about the production and technology transfer issue, DRDO sources say that they require a minimum order of 500 tanks to establish production with good quality control and cost reduction. The scale of economy is very important for the vendors. If the order for tanks is small then it is very difficult to keep the vendors motivated. The cost of production goes up with small orders. Sources added that when DRDO first went to vendors they were motivated and felt honoured to partner in a prestigious project of national importance, but with the small order, it is economically difficult for them to retain assets for Arjun. They further explain that the DRDO cannot bring the engine production to India with a small order. According to a DRDO official: “The engine manufacturer is ready to transfer technology but it is economically not possible for DRDO to buy the technology with an order of only 248 tanks. The Mark-II will have an improved engine with slight modifications. It is not viable to have a stable engine production line with 124 tanks.”

As things stand today, the DRDO will take 30 months to restart the production line in Chennai. The first batch of 30 tanks of the Mark-II version is expected in 2013-14.

July 2011

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SPECIALFEATURE The Paris Air Show witnessed India on the red carpet with aerospace and defence players falling head over heels to get into the order books of the Indian military establishment that has a long shopping list and a deep pocket.

A report on the goings-on at Paris

FFROM RO M

PWPARIS A R I S ITH LOVE LOVE.... ...

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o surprise at all that the Indian defence market has attracted the attention of defence and aerospace players at the Paris Air Show. When you have a shopping list that is a mile long and projections that could be in the range of $ 80 billion over the next four-five years, that’s a lot of money on offer. No wonder, the big ticket players are all salivating at the prospects.

Paris offered plenty of examples of the wooing of India. Amongst those who were vying for closer attention were manufacturers of unmanned air vehicles, tactical missile destroyers and more radar-based warfare systems in the coming years.

RAYTHEON SIGNS WITH TATAS

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SKILLFUL DISGUISE: The Eurocopter EC175’s sleek lines belie its ability to transport 16 people

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adars and missiles major Raytheon has bagged a $23.2million (`120 crore) contract from Tata Power Strategic Electronic Systems in a programme to automate air traffic management systems of the Indian Air Force. The contract was part of the IAF’s project for modernisation of its airfield infrastructure (MAFI). The project aims to make all IAF air bases capable of handling all types of modern transport and fighter aircraft at all times.

Tata Power Strategic Electronic Systems is the prime contractor of the project, which is undertaking the programme to upgrade 30 airbases of IAF in the first phase of the project.

Raytheon also has tie-ups in India with L&T and BEL, and is eyeing a bigger presence in India in the long term. In the MAFI project, Raytheon Network Centric Systems will supply a variant of its globally deployed AutoTrac family of air traffic management systems. The AutoTrac system would provide IAF with a modern automated systems backbone for easier and rapid incorporation of new tools and functionality as they become available.

TOUGH JOB FOR RAFALE

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ndia has set demanding requirements for industrial offsets in its fighter contest, but July 2011

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Dassault is ready to negotiate on the deals, Executive Chairman Charles Edelstenne told the media just as the show was ready to open. The Indian request for tender including offsets were “very tough”, Edelstenne said and added: “It will be very difficult to answer to this request. We want to be chosen; we will negotiate on this subject.” Dassault’s Rafale has been shortlisted alongside the Eurofighter Typhoon in India’s medium multirole combat aircraft competition for 126 new fighter jets. Edelstenne also mentioned that the United Arab Emirates might be the first to decide on its fighter purchase, ahead of Brazil.

The present efforts in debt reduction by certain countries has led to postponement of new defence programmes but Dassault had taken a decisive step in India and was still being considered in the UAE, Brazil and Switzerland, Edelstenne said.

The French government has made the export of the Rafale a “priority” because of the perceived importance of the fighter industry in political, technological and economic terms and also because of the domestic budgetary needs, Edelstenne said. France has written into its defence budgets export

WITH ITS HUGE SHOPPING LIST, INDIA HAS BEEN ONE OF THE MOST SOUGHT-AFTER CLIENTS of the Rafale and if those foreign sales fail to appear, funding must be found from other defence programmes to finance an annual output of 11 aircraft, the minimum deemed for economic viability of the project.

SCORING THROUGH LIBYA

I

n an era of declining defence spending in Europe, the European defence firms have fixed their eyes on the deals from outside the continent. Any information that can improve the prospect of selling is being explored. The combat capability of any new platform can be best demonstrated in real

SHORT TAKES >> Oklahoma is on way to become UAV

‘fly-to’ location for future UAV pilots, with test flying ranges, dedicated UAV airfield inside the Fort Sill ranges with all operational target and challenges for UAV. Oklahoma State University has created the first Masters and PhDs in UAS Design, and its students have begun to defeat MIT in an AAIA, ‘design- build-fly’ contest.

Indian firm AVAANA Software displayed its autonomously-operated UAV aerial and ground-monitoring system called WaveSight at the Air Show.

Swiss Aircraft Technology SWAT in Switzerland brought its rugged civil surveillance ‘Drone Conceptor’ biplane UAV. Italian Alpi Aviation had UAV — triple-rotor military surveillance that can be packed in a knapsack with operating system.

Fly-n-Sense, French company, had a

www.geopolitics.in

range of small hovering and fixed-wing intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) UAVs. XTIM Sarl had Avitron remote-controlled model ornithoptor, which had a slogan ‘Le Premier Oiseau Bionique’ Air Traffic Control is soon going to be on the iPad. If Raytheon innovative products get a market, then ATCs will be trained on the iPad. The company has come up with an app on iPad where one can control a single aircraft in time and space. At present the application needs contact to guide the aircraft but Raytheon plans to put voice recognition. This is part of Air Traffic Control Optimum Training Solution for next gen air traffic manager, by US FAA. Raytheon believes the iPhone/iPadstyle human machine interfaces (HMI) will become part of actual ATC displays in future.

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g SPECIALFEATURE THE POWER OF FLIGHT: It’s not just a buyer-seller mart, the air show has drawn aviation enthusiasts from across the world war and Libya has provided the muchrequired data for the latest fighters like Eurofighter Typhoon.

The Eurofighter pavilion was smart enough to begin its Paris Air Show with a pre-show briefing also covering the fighter’s first combat sorties from Italy to Libya, a five-hour-long mission some time extending to nine hours. The sorties were in consonance with the 70s vintage Tornados. In an era of precision bombing and minimising of collateral damage the mission was a mix of deliberate and dynamic targeting by Paveway II bombs in GPS-guidance mode by Typhoons.

The Typhoon team didn’t disclose the source of targeting data. They declined to divulge whether the precision would have improved if they had the support of forward air control on ground to guide targeting missions.

BOEING IS CONFIDENT

T

www.avweb.com www.avweb.com

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he Indian Air Force is close to choosing between the AH-64D and the Mi-28NE, with a decision anticipated in the next two months, according to Apache manufacturer Boeing. Speaking at the show, Chris Chadwick, President, Boeing Military Aircraft, confirmed that both the flying tests and written evaluations of both aircraft had been submitted and a winner was likely to emerge in the third quarter of 2011.

If this timeframe is met, deliveries would start from 2014, with the first operational units being fielded in 2015. Chadwick said a winner was also expected to emerge for the Indian Air Force’s tender for 15 heavy lift helicopters by the end of the year, in a competition which pitches Boeing’s CH-47F against the Mil Mi-26T2.

“For the attack helicopter, the trials have

THE LIBYAN WAR PROVIDED REAL-WORLD DATA FOR THE TYPHOON AND THE RAFALE

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completed, they completed the written evaluations and we expect it will be announced within the next few months. On the heavy helicopter, that’s about six months out — they have finished the flight evaluations and now they have to go through the process of the written evaluations and make a decision later this fall,” he said.

Chadwick was bullish about the future of the Chinook, noting that a $130 million capital investment in its Philadelphia production line, raising production to six per month, was a reflection of the reality that “if they can build more, they can sell more”.

Boeing is currently working with the US Army on its second multi-year contract for 155 CH-47F aircraft, with contract award expected in January 2013.

THE F-35 TANGO

W

ill Lockheed Martin offer its latest warplane, the F-35 stealth fighter, to India in a bid to rejoin the $11 billion combat-jet competition after its older F-16 model was eliminated? And will India accept?(read our piece on the F 35 that features separately on Page 12) Indian analysts at the show and in Delhi believe it would be contrary to India’s weapons-acquisition procedure which would be seen by many as succumbing to US pressure. Moreover, the plane’s developmental time scale was unacceptable because the Air Force needs planes that can be available as soon as possible to raise its fighter force from a current 30 squadrons to more than 40.

The F-35 jet is still in development. At an estimated $382 billion, it is the Pentagon’s most expensive weapons programme. The US Government Accountability Office has said the planes cost about $133 million each in today’s dollars. The Pentagon plans to buy more than 2,400.

Buying F-35s at $133 million each would boost India’s cost in acquiring 126 fighters by about 50 per cent, from a currently estimated $11 billion to almost $17 billion.

RISKING LOSING THE DRONES

T

he US risks losing out in the market for unmanned aerial vehicles unless it pushes ahead with efforts to reform damaging and outdated export controls, according to major vendors. At present, UAVs are regulated in the same category as cruise missiles, falling under the Missile Technology Control Regime, an informal grouping of 34 countries designed to prevent the proliferation of systems capable of delivering weapons of mass destruction. As a result, US regulators routinely deny export permits for drones.

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RUSSIAN CHOPPERS FOR AFGHANISTAN AFTER A YEAR of negotiations, Russia and United States have signed a contract for 21 Mi-17 V5 multipurpose helicopters for Afghan forces. The deal will cover ground support, maintenance and reserve units.

The costs of each of these helicopters will be $17.5 million. The Mi-17s will provide NATO forces much-required transportation for its missions. The deal was signed between US Army Forces Command and Rosoboronexport, the Russian arms export firm.

Produced in Russia at two factories in Kazan and Ulan-Ude the new Mi-17s will

ABG SHIPYARD BAGS NAVY ORDER GUJARAT-BASED ABG Shipyard has bagged an order from the Indian Navy for construction of two cadet ships worth `970 cr. The first vessel is due for delivery in 45 months and the second ship six months after that. In the past, the company has delivered two interceptor boats for Indian Coast Guard. ABG has built 104 specialised vessels so far and 90 per cent of the vessels it built over the past two years were exported. As the name suggests, cadet ships are used to train naval cadets and can also be used in disaster relief, rescue and search efforts.

www.geopolitics.in

begin to arrive in Afghanistan after October 2011. The Mi-17 is the export version of Mi-8, and can carry up to 37 passengers.

This deal could go through only after US lifted sanctions against Rosoboronexport, imposed in 2010. American sanctions were imposed against Rosoboronexport in 2006 for violation of the nuclear non-proliferation regime. Ironically, even during the sanctions, the US had been buying dozens of these helicopters through third parties as commercial items.

UPGRADED AN-32 RE INDUCTED INTO IAF IN continuation with the ongoing Air Force fleet modernisation, four of the first batch of five AN-32 tactical transport aircraft that recently underwent ‘total technical life extension’ (TTLE), overhaul and re-equipment at Ukraine were inducted into the IAF, as the AN-32 RE. Air Marshal Joseph Neri, Air Officer-in-Charge (Maintenance) said the re-equipped AN32 RE aircraft will fulfil tactical transport requirements of the IAF up to and beyond 2025. IAF has been imbibing and exploiting technological advances and adapting to a revolution in military affairs.

The first batch of AN-32 RE aircraft was inducted by Air Marshal Neri at a brief induction and handing-over ceremony held at Palam airbase. Senior IAF officers and officials from the Ministry of Defence were present at the ceremony along with representatives of M/S Spets Techno Export (STE) a Ukraine firm contracted for upgradation.

AN-32 aircraft, which have been opera-

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tional since 1984, is the backbone of the IAF’s transport fleet and has flown more than eight lakh hours on various missions. India lost 14 aircraft in various accidents and is left with 104 aircraft which will be undergoing upgradation.

The Indian Air Force conceived mid-life upgrades in 2005 as aircraft were left with airframe hours in spite of maintenance challenges due to aging and obsolescence. The contract was finalised in June 2009.

The Total Technical Life Extension (TTLE) of the AN 32 has increased the life of the aircraft from the existing 25 years to 40 years. The overhaul and re-equipment of the 40 aircraft will be done at the designercertified

plants in Ukraine. Annually, 10 aircraft will be upgraded in Ukraine till March 2014. The upgrade of the remaining 64 aircraft will be done at IAF’s No. 1 Base Repair Depot (BRD) in Kanpur and is expected to be completed by March 2017.

The supply of material and ‘transfer of technology’ (ToT) for the upgrade will be provided by the contractor.

The AN-32 REs have been upgraded with a new cockpit layout, upgraded avionics equipment, noise and vibration reduction, with a view to increasing the reliability and maintainability of the aircraft.

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g THIRD PROTOTYPE OF LCH TO COME OUT SOON HAL will soon launch the third prototype of its Light Combat Helicopter (LCH) with improved design and production. The programme saw its first flight display during the last Bangaluru air show. The LCH is India’s first attempt at the indigenous design of a helicopter gunship.

The first two prototypes will undergo sea-level trials by the end of the year.

The improved version of LCH is

expected to be out early next year for flight trials. The third prototype will be incorporating the improvement based on the flight trial of the existing two prototypes. The first two prototypes are also undergoing improvements. During the Aero India Flight display the prototype deviated from its set parameter. HAL was forced to undertake study of the helicopters.

SAAB 2000 WILL COMPETE FOR NAVY MRMR SAAB 2000, which is one of the fastest turbo-prop aircraft in the world with a speed of 350 knots (TAS) and range of 2000 nautical miles, will be offered to India for the upcoming Naval medium range maritime reconnaissance (MRMR) request for proposal. SAAB, the Swedish defence major, had previously bid for the MMRCA with its Gripen fighter aircraft, which it lost.

The aircraft will be carrying the RBS-15 Anti Ship Missile for the strike role and will have Selex AESA radar for surveillance.

SAAB has not manufactured the SAAB 2000 since 1999 and the aircraft that will be offered is going to be a remanufactured version of the existing aircraft.

The aircraft will have 35,000 flying hours along with all warranties and it will get 25 years of support from the manufacturer. There is no loss of flying hours in the remanufacturing process.

India currently operates Tu 142, Dorniers and IL 38s for its maritime patrol requirements. India has ordered eight P8I from Boeing for long range maritime patrol and strike. Boeing is expected to jump into the MRMR bid with its downgraded version of P8I.

HYDERABAD has emerged as the preferred destination for defence companies in recent times. Investments in excess of ` 8500 cr will be spent in new units by defence public sector undertakings (DPSU) like Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), Bharat Dynamics Limited (BDL), Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL), etc.

The location for the units is yet to be www.geopolitics.in

ANTONY: FOCUS ON INDIGENOUS WEAPONS DEFENCE Minister AK Antony raised concerns over the "hidden costs, time and cost overruns" in the imported weapon systems while addressing a seminar on quality. He pointed out that imported systems do not necessarily suit Indian climate and there is need for developing system and weapons for Indian climatic condition

by Indian industry.

The Defence Minister asked the representatives of the defence industry to invest more in research and development to create systems for exacting the standards of the Indian armed forces. He even gave examples of weapons systems

HYDERABAD:

DPSU’S INVESTMENT DESTINATION finalised. The biggest investment will be

by HAL to the tune of `4,000 crore. BDL is planning to have two units in Hyderabad out of its six proposed units in

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from colder nations which don’t perform well in Indian climatic conditions. He also suggested that defence forces should be given more choices among the best available technology to choose from for their requirements.

India has, in the past, faced major issues with the thermal imagers of Russian tanks, which did not work effectively in the Indian summer, especially in the Rajasthan desert.

The armed forces, which are buying all sorts of thermal imagers and thermal sensors, are now going for sufficient tropicalisation to maintain their operational efficiency.

Andhra Pradesh with investment of `3000 cr. BDL and BHEL joint venture is going to be in 90 acres in the industrial area of Hyderabad.

In recent times Hyderabad has also has seen the emergence of many small and medium-scale private defence firms.

Many of the global defence firms are also involved in the joint venture with the Indian defence majors in Hyderabad.

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MMRCA FINAL ROUND BEGINS The final round of the MMRCA bid has begun on June 17 when the two final contenders submitted their revised offset bids. Eurofighter of EADS and Rafale of Dassault are the two remaining contenders left after the technical evaluation of the field trials of all the six bidders. The vendors have submitted the offset commitments with their individual MoUs with their offset partners and equipment providers. In the initial offset bid OEMs submitted only commitment on offset.

With this, the deal has entered into its final stage. The Ministry of Defence is now going to study these bids and will call the two final contenders in next couple of months to do the final negotiation for the deal. The revised offset bid has details of the agreement between the Indian firms and OEM.

The 50 per cent offset obligation is going to be executed by the Indian partners.

The most important issue that has emerged in the offset is that India has very few companies, which have the capability and technical know-how to execute the offset orders and it is expected that majors like, TATA, L&T, BEL, HAL are going to get a substantial chunk of the deal irrespective who wins.

After declaring the final two contenders, the Ministry of Defence asked the two contenders to extend their bids to December, which were expiring in the month of April.

www.geopolitics.in

SCORPENE

INDIGENISATION BEGINS DCNS India Pvt Ltd has signed a contract with the Visakhapatnam-based Flash Forge India Pvt. Ltd for the under-construction six Scorpene submarine at Mazagon Docks Ltd. (MDL), Mumbai for the Indian Navy’s Project 75 at a cost of $4 billion. The first two submarines are going to be assembled at MDL and the other four will be manufactured through transfer of technology from DCNS. DCNS India is currently working on finding a suitable partner for production of the equipment within India. The indigenous equipment for the submarines is going to be engines, pumps, valves, accommodation elements, air-conditioning, safety equipment, and combat and ship control systems. The deal has got by two years due to technical glitches in initial production at the MDL. One of the major reasons for delay

was the inability of the MDL in absorbing the technology. Besides this the material procurement, infrastructure creation at MDL also contributed to the delay in the programme.

DCNS has delivered the combat management system for first two submarines under construction at the MDL. The first submarine will go for trials in 2013 and will be commissioned in 2015. It is expected that the last submarine will be delivered around 2018. The third and fourth submarine hulls are already under construction by DCNS. DCNS has offered India its MEMSA steam Air Independent Propulsion (AIP) for project 75- I. India is planning to have AIP system to increase submergence of the submarine. DCNS has also offered the AIP system for the last two submarines of the P75.

GLOBAL HAWK FOR NAVY? NORTHROP Grumman has responded to the Indian Navy’s tender for High Altitude Long Endurance (HALE) aircraft with the MQ-4C Global Hawk. The product has been cleared by the United States government for sale to India. The MQ-4C features intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) over 2000 nautical miles radius,

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dual redundant flight controls and surfaces, open architecture mission control system for customisation and a 51,000-hour airframe life. It is also equipped with multifunction 2D AESA radar with maritime and air-to-ground modes. With a maximum altitude of 56,500 ft and a speed of 330 knots it has an endurance of 28 hours.

July 2011

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DEFBIZ LAST OF THE OLD GUARD: India’s last Foxtrot-class submarine INS Vagli retired after 37 years of operational service.

UNDERWATER FLEET IN THE DOLDRUMS With an ageing submarine fleet, it is prudent to import some of the best underwater craft immediately, while developing indigenous capacity with the help of the private sector simultaneously. Submarines are extremely important for India’s India'sstrategic strategiccapability capabilityof of deterrence from the sea and achieving the aim of a “Triad” of nuclear deterrence, writes "Triad" of nuclear deterrence, writes AR TANDON

S

ubmarines play a vital role in sea power both for combat and for deterrence. The importance of a submarine arm was not lost on the naval planners of the Indian Navy (IN) and it planned to create a force of submarines. But the acquisition of a submarine for the IN was a long and complicated process. While a series of newly-built Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) frigates like the Khukri-class and Trishul-class were inducted from the United Kingdom (UK ) in late 1950s and early 1960s and the aircraft carrier INS Vikrant in 1961, there was no government approval for submarine acquisition.

It is believed that there was initial hesitation of the role of submarines by a peace-loving country like India, as submarines were seen to be weapons of offence. But training in ASW was essential and needed a live submarine at sea. This was undertaken during sea-exercises until early 1964 with the British making an old submarine available. This was not a satisfactory arrangement and continu-

www.geopolitics.in

ous efforts were made by IN to induct at least one submarine for a start. After PNS Ghazi was given to the Pakistani Navy by the United States in 1964, the issue of proficiency in ASW gained further urgency.

The British were approached in the middle of 1964 for an in-service Porpoise-class submarine or preferably the latest Oberon-class to be built for Indian Navy but the British Admiralty insisted in transferring a 40-yearold submarine. The Soviets, in the mean time, offered their latest Foxtrot-class submarines and warships specially modified for Indian conditions at a very attractive financial package with soft credit. This was the start of IndoSoviet naval co-operation and the gradual build-up of a submarine fleet for the IN. In 1965 an agreement was signed for four F-Class submarines. The first of these was commissioned as INS Kalvari on December 8, 1967.

With this, the Indian Navy acquired the three dimensional capability for operations at sea.

The three remaining submarines were deliv-

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ered by the end of 1969. A further four modified F-class were ordered in 1971 and these were the Vela-class which joined the IN between 1973 and end 1974.

The naval planners thereafter started looking at building submarines in Indian shipyards to gain expertise in submarine construction and to augment the submarine force levels with submarines from Western countries. After prolonged discussions and evaluations it was decided in 1981 that India would acquire four German SSKs of HDW 1500 design with the first two being built in Germany and the other two to be built in India. Submarine design and technological collaboration for construction were specified in the Agreement for Technical Assistance.

Mazagaon Docks Limited in Mumbai was chosen as the yard for submarine construction. The two submarines built in Germany, INS Shishumar and INS Shankush, were commissioned in September 1986 and November 1986, respectively. The construction of the July 2011

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g DEFBIZ third and fourth submarines continued at MDL. The augmentation of special infrastructure and facilities at MDL and transfer of technology and build up of expertise put the project behind schedule. The events of 1987 when irregularities were pointed out in the selection and award of contract to HDW alleging a scandal, further delayed the delivery of MDL-built submarines. INS Shalki was commissioned on 7, February, 1992 and INS Shankul in May 1994. The construction of two HDW SSKs in MDL successfully transferred technology and created skills and expertise for submarine construction in India. The alleged HDW scandal, however, prevented further orders being placed and it led to a break of over 10 years in submarine construction resulting in loss of all the skills and expertise gained by MDL staff.

The Soviets had offered EKM 877 submarines to India in 1981 as a new design to eventually replace the F-class. India having initially delayed accepting the offer finally signed an agreement for six submarines in 1984. These were the Sindhughosh-class and joined the IN from April 1986 to December 1988. A seventh submarine was contracted for in 1987 and an eighth in 1988. These were delivered in December 1989 and December 1990. The ninth EKM INS Sindhurakshak was commisioned in December 1997. The tenth and the last of the EKMs INS Sindhushastra joined in July 2000. This was a vastly improved EKM as it was designed for and fitted with the under-water fired Klub missile. This missile has been retrofitted on the EKMs, which were sent to Russia for Medium Repairs (MR) and refurbishment.

Submarines enjoy an inherent stealth capability because electromagnetic waves used for detection above the surface cannot penetrate the oceans. The only means of detection of underwater objects is by use of sound beams or sonar. Even the sonar beams are subject to attenuation and deflections by the ever-present temperature layers below the surface. While they have stealth capability , conventionally-powered diesel-electric submarines (SSK) are vulnerable to detection and attack during the time they have to come up to the surface for obtaining access to air / oxygen to run their diesel engines to charge their huge array of batteries. This evolution has to be undertaken at least once every two-three days and despite use of snorkels for obtaining air, the submarine is a sitting duck for attack from the air and surface ships for those few hours.

To overcome this shortcoming in conventional submarines, the US Navy developed minitiarised nuclear power plants under the able leadership of Admiral Rickover to build submarines with nuclear powered steam propulsion. The first nuclear-powered submawww.geopolitics.in

rine was the Nautilus, which became operational in 1955. The Soviets, UK, France and China also developed nuclear-powered submarines. These were called the SSNs whose endurance to stay underwater was limited more by human endurance than by technical constraints. The next step in the Cold War scenario was to use their inherent stealth capability to fit them out with ICBMs (SSBN) and a host of other weapon systems to make them powerful platforms of deterrence. The Cold War saw both sides deploying large numbers of SSNs and SSBNs at sea.

It was inevitable that India would also consider acquiring an SSN. In the late 1970s and early 1980s a project termed as Advanced Technology Vessel (ATV) was set up under the aegis of the DRDO. It was a highly-classified project and not many even in the Indian Navy knew about it. The main challenge was to design and build a miniaturised nuclear power plant a challenge which the Indian scientists of BARC took on. The second was to design a submarine to use the nuclear reactor for steam propulsion. Since there was no expertise in this field, it was decided to get Soviet help and technical collaboration, which was readily made available.

THE ONLY MEANS TO DETECT UNDERWATER OBJECTS IS BY USE OF SOUND BEAMS OR SONAR A nuclear-powered submarine is not only a very technically complex platform to build but requires a great amount of highly skilled and trained manpower to operate and to ensure safety, as it has a nuclear reactor. It was therefore decided that besides technical collaboration with the Soviets it was necessary to first gain expertise on operating a nuclear- powered submarine. The Soviets were approached and a specially selected crew was deputed for extensive and rigorous training in USSR. On successful completion a lease agreement for three years for a Charlie-class SSN was signed.

INS Chakra was commissioned on January 5, 1988.

By early 1989, Indian Navy had two operational aircraft carriers after the induction of INS Viraat, a large number of warships under construction in the Indian shipyards and a

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formidable submarine fleet consisting of the Chakra, eight F-class, six EKMs and two HDW SSKs (with two more under construction in MDL). The defence analysts and naval authorities of the world took serious note of the socalled expansion of the Indian Navy. All sorts of hegemonic motives were imputed to India's policies. Indian Navy and its likely intentions were hotly debated in international maritime seminars by navies and defence analysts and a number of articles started appearing in defence journals. On the other hand, on the domestic front a serious financial crisis had developed in India by 1989-1990. One of the outcomes of the international pressure and a serious down-turn in the country's financial fortunes resulted in the decision to return the Chakra in January 1991 at the expiry of the lease period of three years, which otherwise was being negotiated for extension.

The ATV made slow but steady progress with facilities for its construction being created at Ship Building Centre (SBC) in Vishakhapatnam. While the reactor was being tested in Kalpakam, indigenisation of special machinery and fittings was undertaken with Indian industry and construction of the outer shell was reportedly out-sourced to L&T facility at Hazira. In a submarine the perfect circularity of the pressure hull and special steel for its construction are of vital importance so as to withstand the tremendous water pressure at great depths. While the steel was imported, the expertise to meet extremely stringent specifications for the pressure hull was developed indigenously. Simultaneously, weapon and sensor systems were under development.

One of the success stories would be the 700km range K-15 nuclear-tipped missiles of which Arihant will carry 12, as mentioned by the Chief of Naval Staff on December 2, 2010, during his customary briefing before Navy Day. Because of the secrecy surrounding Arihant, its complete weapon and sensor package is presently not known. It can, however, be said with a fair amount of certainty that it will carry a large package of indigenously-developed sensors — be it sonar, communications or EW fit. The Arihant is expected to become a fully operational unit by 2012. One of the added spin-offs of the ATV project is that expertise for design and construction of submarines has been gained by both the naval designers and Indian industry.

The declining submarine force levels have been a cause for worry. The last of F-class INS Vagli was decommissioned on December 7, 2010 after 37 years of service. The first eight EKMs are between 21 and 25 years old.

Although six have under gone MR in Russia and were fitted with the Klub missile, (Continued on page 34) July 2011

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INTERVIEW

CREATING THE LEVIATHAN Construction is progressing satisfactorily and on schedule, says Commodore K Subramaniam, CMD, Cochin Shipyard Limited, in a candid interview to Geopolitics Could you throw some light on the ongoing projects at your shipyard?

Cochin Shipyard is presently building 35 ships consisting of 14 offshore support ships for domestic and international owners, one aircraft carrier for the Indian Navy and 20 Fast Patrol Vessels for the Indian Coast Guard.

The shipyards across globe are moving towards block building method. Where do you stand with respect to modern technology?

Cochin Shipyard was the first yard in India to have adopted the Integrated Hull Outfitting and Painting (IHOP) method of construction, which envisages modular construction, and advanced outfitting at the time of block making. We keep in pace with modern technology across the spectrum of shipbuilding from design to outfitting.

What are your long-term plans for modernisation and expansion?

Cochin Shipyard aims to add to its capacity in the long term by way of a ship lift system or a new drydock.

CSL has been continuously augmenting its technology levels to stay in the market as a modern yard. The augmentations have been mainly in cranage, transporters, marine painting, welding, etc. www.geopolitics.in

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g INTERVIEW Kindly update us on the Indigenous Aircraft Carrier programme.

The Indigenous Aircraft Carrier (IAC) construction is progressing satisfactorily and is on schedule.

For the first time, India is building an aircraft carrier. It must have been a great challenge. How did you prepare your shipyard for this task? What major upgrades were done in your shipyard for this programme? How useful was the INS Virat refitting experience in this regard?

The Aircraft Carrier Project is indeed a very prestigious project for Cochin Shipyard.

With the help of the Indian Navy, we have undertaken major upgrades in the yard facilities to take up the project. The major augmentations undertaken in this respect were an additional gantry crane of 300 T capacities, a separate bay in the hull shop, transporters and other cranes of various capacities. CSL’s experience in refitting of INS Viraat has helped the company in the project as it has given the yard a fair understanding of the operations, controls, the complexities of various systems and internal layout of an aircraft carrier. However, there are a number of differences between the two with reference to design and features.

India has plans for a larger indigenous aircraft carrier of around 60,000 dwt. How confident are you for the next aircraft carrier coming to your shipyard?

CSL is confident to take up any number of projects for Indian Navy. Of course, there would be requirement for augmentation of infrastructure to undertake a ship of the envisaged size. CSL definitely has the capability, capacity may need augmentation.

One of the most important aspects of shipbuilding is the ability to design and conceive projects that have the cutting edge.

How well equipped is Cochin Shipyard in this regard and could you throw some light on your design and R&D capabilities?

Cochin Shipyard has ‘state-of-the-art’ design technology like TRIBON/CAD/CAM. The yard has undertaken research projects on green technology and welding research, which has helped in expeditious progress of hull fabrication.

India has declared defence indigenisation objective so that 70 per cent of all acquisition has to be Indian. How much of the ship built in your shipyard has indigenous content? www.geopolitics.in

INCREMENTAL DEVELOPMENT: CSL's experience in refitting the INS Viraat gave it an understanding of the complexities of the systems of an aircraft carrier Shipbuilding ancillaries have not developed and grown in India till now owing to a number of reasons. Hence, presently indigenous content in the shipbuilding activities in India is low. This needs to be addressed holistically with policy interventions from the government.

crore in 2009-10. This growth may somewhat plateau in the coming years owing to withdrawal of government subsidy.

However, a healthy and positive industrial outlook owing to growth in demand is likely to sustain the existing profitability levels in future also.

Tell us about your financial status. What is your revenue target for next five years?

The performance of Cochin Shipyard Limited over the past five years has been truly remarkable. The turnover of the company has increased five times from `222 crore in 2004-05 to `1,248 crore in 2009-10. Similarly, the Profit Before Tax has grown 13 times from `25 crore in 2004-05 to `331 crore in 2009-10 and Profit After Tax has increased 12 times from `18 crore in 2004-05 to `223

We now have a major private ship-builder in the private sector and there are several major business houses, which are also contemplating setting up shipbuilding units. What is your take on the private shipyards in the business of shipbuilding?

We feel creation of capacity is really good for the industry as it would lead to building up of volumes, which in turn will result in ancillary growth and development.

CSL HAS BEEN CONTINUOUSLY AUGMENTING ITS TECHNOLOGY LEVELS

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Could you throw some light on your supply chain and the Small Medium Enterprises (SME) involved with you?

We have very good chain of suppliers and subcontractors built and nurtured over the years who are specialised in various aspects of shipbuilding. Most of these SMEs are based at Kochi itself while there are firms from outside too, which have set up ancillary outlets in our Small Ship Division, mainly in the area of steel fabrication. We are hopeful of developing many such SMEs, especially on a turnkey basis in future.

July 2011

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DAWN OF A NEW ERA: The INS Sindhughosh was the first submarine in Indian Navy to be equipped with the Klub antiship cruise missiles Continued from page 31 their operational status would have degraded with ageing. It is reported that the Sindhudhwaj, which underwent MR in India, was not fitted with Klub missile. The Sindhukirti, it is understood, is in Hindustan Shipyard (HSL) Vishakhapatnam being fitted out with Klub missile and the Sindhurakshak the ninth EKM is undergoing MR in Russia. The other SSKs in Indian submarine fleet have also aged. The two that were built in Germany are 25 years old. The other two built in MDL are also 17-19 years old. With refit and crew training cycles the number of operationally deployable submarines would not be more than four or five, which would not be adequate for the area of responsibility of the IN. The ageing conventional submarine fleet and dwindling numbers have been a serious concern for the navy. After considerable deliberation the IN and Ministry of Defence decided to go for the build rather than the buy option for augmenting the submarine fleet. The government had approved the long-term plan for two submarine lines in 1999. It, however, took many years for a decision on the selection of type and subsequent financial negotiations to decide on the French Scorpene-class. An agreement between the two governments for building six of these in India was signed in 2005. MDL was the chosen shipyard for building the Scorpenes. After the French supplied the special steel for the pressure hull, construction began in MDL in December 2006. The originally planned delivery date of one per year from 2012 has slipped by many years due to teething problems and price escalations. The government is reported to have www.geopolitics.in

recently approved a revised higher cost of the project by about $1 billion.

In the case of submarine construction in Indian shipyards, there are constraints of both capability and capacity, unlike in surface warship construction where the constraint now is of capacity. Submarine design and construction are far more complex than surface ship building and requires expertise in design, setting-up of specialised infrastructure, import of special steel and development of human skills. To add to all this, the shipyard needs experience in having worked on submarines. Some of these can be acquired with collaboration with a foreign submarine designer-cum-builder. A second line of submarine building is vital to maintain force levels and has been approved. The intention is to build six more submarines.

The contenders for these follow-on submarines to the Scorpene are French, German, Spanish and Russian designs.

Various shipyards for this second line are being considered for bids. Hindustan Shipyard Ltd (HSL) at Vishakhapatnam has over the years refitted F-class and EKM submarines and has gained expertise in this field. INS Sindhukirti, it is understood, is being presently modified for installation of Klub missile. HSL is therefore the first choice of the Navy. HSL's proximity to SBC at Vishakhapatnam is another factor in its selection as the experience and expertise of building the Arihant would be available close at hand. On Navy's recommendation, HSL was taken over as an MoD shipyard in 2010.

There are two private shipyards, Larson & Toubro and Pipavav, which have asked the MoD to be allowed to bid for the second line

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for submarines. A special committee under Dr V Krishnamurthy was tasked to assess the capability of these two private yards. L&T is setting up a new shipyard at Ennore on the east coast. Also, it is understood that L&T has built up expertise in submarine hull making and fitting out having been extensively involved with the construction of Arihant.

L&T has therefore been cleared by Dr V Krishnamurthy. Pipavav has not been cleared so far but is making determined efforts to be included. The complex and technologically challenging task of building submarines will require huge financial outlay besides foreign collaboration. As a joint venture, the financial part and collaboration on design issues can be taken care of by the government, but infrastructure and human skills take years to develop. It can be assumed that in assessing capability of any new entrant in the field of submarine-building the MoD would take all these factors into consideration.

With an ageing submarine fleet and little or no headway in submarine building India had decided to take a nuclear submarine on lease from Russia to augment its submarine strength. The Nerpa, a 12000-tonne Akulaclass nuclear submarine has been contracted on a long-term lease. It is likely to be commissioned into IN as INS Chakra sometime this year. Its induction has been delayed by a few months because of an accident on board, while the Russian crew was carrying out trials. This incident has once again highlighted the safety requirements at sea, particularly the need for very stringent training and meticulous following of procedures. These become even more vital when operating a nuclear submarine. One of the areas in which the IN has made no headway is in acquiring a Deep Submergence Rescue Vessel (DSRV) necessary to help submariners to escape from an incapacitated-bottomed submarine. The IN is still dependent on international help if such an unfortunate eventuality occurs.

The submarine fleet of the Indian Navy is ageing and depleting and the indigenously constructed Scorpenes are some years away. The second line after the Scorpenes is even further away on the horizon. There is a school of thought that it may be prudent to induct two submarines by import to augment force levels.

On the positive side, it must be noted that the EKMs are fitted with antiship Klub missiles besides torpedoes making them powerful platforms. More importantly after the new Chakra joins this year and the Arihant by next year, India will have a strategic capability of deterrence from the sea and achieving the aim of a Triad of nuclear deterrence.

(The author is a retired Vice Admiral) July 2011

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DEFBIZ

UNMATCHED CAPABILITIES: The heavy airlift military transport market today is dominated by the Globemaster

GLOBEMASTER OF THE GLOBE

With the gradual phasing-out of the An-124 and An-225 transport aircraft and the disintegration of the USSR, Boeing's C-17 Globemaster is now the 'best of its kind in the world'. India has done well to buy 10 of them, but to emerge as a great power, the country must build its own strategic airlifters, writes ABHIJIT BHATTACHARYYA

F

our decades ago, Indira Gandhi put herself in the bad books of the Nixon Administration when she signed the Indo-USSR treaty on August 9, 1971. Almost a decade later, when Indira Gandhi became the premier again in January 1980, Pakistani dictator Ziaul-Haq got his F-16s from the USA, to the extreme chagrin of India. Indo-US relations were at their nadir again, with India standing no chance to either acquire the advanced American aviation technology or to stop it from being exported by Uncle Sam to the Pakistani military junta. To top it all, the USA sim-

www.geopolitics.in

ply did not consider India to be a reliable enough a partner (with a matching reciprocal Indian feeling) or an economically viable and lucrative arms bazaar. The USA then had a large base of buyers to purchase US -manufactured military hardware through “government-to-government” transactions, euphemistically known as “foreign military sales”. It has been a clever and practical ploy of profitable business design which could be implemented without “tender, quotation, highest/lowest bidder” or “competitive demonstration of technology”. And India just did not even remotely figure in the scheme of

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things in any way whatsoever in the US military hardware technology transfers or sales.

Times have, ironically, changed owing to a variety of factors in the international arena.

The West is now in the midst of a financial downturn. Consequently, its military-industrial complex faces an unprecedented recession with reduced domestic orders and shrinking export orders. With only China, India, Brazil and a few Middle East nations left to place orders for big-ticket military hardware from the West, cut-throat competition for the survival of the fittest is understandable.

July 2011

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g DEFBIZ In this context comes the Indian decision to buy 10 C-17 Globemaster transport aircraft worth over $4.1 billion from Boeing through the foreign military sales route. It is a windfall for the hard-hit US economy, reeling under all-round cash crunch and rising unemployment, unbridgeable macro-finance deficit and a perceived loss of power and face, prestige and clout in the international arena. “The sale”, to quote the outgoing US Ambassador to India, “captures the mutual benefits of the USIndia global partnership. For India, the sale adds strategic and humanitarian muscle to its defence needs. The sale will create and sustain 23,000 jobs in America. Over 600 suppliers located in 44 states in America will benefit from the sale”.

Originally, a product of the erstwhile McDonnell Douglas Corporation, the C-17 was the “long-range and intra-theatre heavy cargo transport” selected by the US Air Force on August 28, 1981. Formed on April 28, 1967, with the merger of Douglas Aircraft Company Inc and the McDonnell Company, McDonnell Douglas was the largest US defence contractor prior to the 1995 formation of Lockheed Martin. However, the tripartite competition between Boeing, Lockheed and McDonnell Douglas in the manufacture of wide-bodied passenger aircraft saw a steady decline of the latter from the 1980s. Eventually, with “continued fall in airliner sales after reorganising to recover from combined downturn in defence and civil markets” in 1990s, and a consequential 20 per cent reduced work force and “noncore business sold”, McDonnell Douglas was consumed by Boeing in August 1997. McDonnell Douglas C-17 became Boeing C-17 Globemaster.

With an enviable record, reputation and performance, the present C-17A Globemaster III is in use with Australia (4); Canada (4); UK (70); NATO (2); Qatar (2) and UAE (6). Aside from foreign operators, the USA too extensively uses C-17; its Air Mobility Command has 11 squadrons with a total of 180 aircraft in service. There are also 2 squadrons under Reserve Organisations. What distinguishes C-17 Globemaster from all other heavy transport is its payload of 78 tonnes and the impressive range thereof, with the minimum being 2500 miles/4630 kilometres. In fact the heavy airlift military transport market today is virtually a Boeing monopoly because no other nation has the capability to match the quality and performance of Globemaster. Not yet. Thus, the Russian Ilyushin-76, with its “new engines, rated at 142kN (31967 pound static) has increased payload to 50000 kg (50 tonnes).

The Chinese attempt to construct an airborne early warning system on the Russian-origin www.geopolitics.in

Ilyushin-76 is reported to be capable of carrying a 60-tonne payload. And Europe's Airbus military programme's A400M's “typical strategic air transport capability will be a 30000 kg/30 tonnes payload over 6389 km”. However, the legendary Soviet-origin flying wonders — Antonov-124 and Antonov-225 long-range heavy-lift freight transport aircraft — are still around.

The first production Russian An-124 was exhibited at the 1985 Paris air show, which subsequently lifted a payload of 171.219 tonnes—(which is double the capability of the Indian Air Force acquired C-17's 78 tonnes)— to 10750 metre (35269 ft) on July 26, 1985, “exceeding by 53 per cent American Lockheed's C-5A Galaxy's record”.

INDIA'S DECISION TO BUY 10 C-17S FROM BOEING IS A WINDFALL FOR THE HARD-HIT US ECONOMY

Upon entering service in January 1986, an An-124 transported “units of US/Canadian Euclid 154 tonne dumper truck for Yakut diamond miners”. Again, during “September 1990 Gulf crisis, an An-124 carried 451 Bangladeshi refugees from Amman to Dhaka” and subsequently set a world record of sorts when it flew the “heaviest commercial air cargo of three 43 tonne transformers and ancillary equipment, totalling 143 tonnes, from Barcelona, Spain, to Noumea, New Caledonia”.

That it was an amazing Soviet machine could be made out from its performance. It required a take-off run between 8,270 and 9,850 feet and a landing run of only 2,955 feet on the runway with maximum payload. Also, with a maximum fuel load, An-124 could cover 16,500 km. An-124 landing gear too was designed and made to “operate from unprepared fields, hard-packed snow and ice-covered swampland”.

Perhaps the greatest Soviet achievement was the subsequent design, development and deployment of six-engine An-225 Mriya (Dream) on December 21, 1988 “from 1,000 metre (3,280 ft) runway” at Kiev. It was the “first aircraft built to fly at gross weight exceeding one million pounds”. Taking off at 508.2 tonnes with 156.3 tonne payload and flying at an altitude of 40,485 feet, the Soviets demonstrated their superiority over the Amer-

IN THE BELLY OF THE BEAST: The Globemaster is a versatile aircraft capable of tactical airlift, medical evacuation and airdrop missions

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g DEFBIZ icans when it came to super-heavy lift cargo transport aircraft in the 1980s. Unfortunately, however, this unprecedented aviation success came too late in the day. It happened too close to the last days of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republic (USSR). Hence, despite making a sensational debut in all aspects, starting from take off to touch down, Moscow failed to sustain its aviation momentum and just crumbled. The demise of the USSR also virtually ended the great aviation enterprise of Moscow's much-vaunted military machine and the men behind them.

It was thus just a matter of time before the Americans would fill the space vacated by their old rival of the Cold War. It must be conceded that they usually had technological superiority in their side, owing to their vast defence research and development projects and an equally inexhaustive pool of talented scientists. No single country (not even China) is in a position to challenge the quality technology of the US. USA has been rather choosy and selective in offering this advanced aircraft. Nevertheless, the Americans could not ignore the economic benefit of exporting the C-17 aircraft to India. (There are possibilities that there may be more C-17 orders in store for Boeing). The idea simply is to restore the confidence in the sluggish domestic employment market.

An obvious question asked today is: how the Boeing C-17 suddenly appeared on the radar of Indian Air Force after having used An-12, An-32, Ilyushin-76 and other Soviet/Russian origin aircraft for close to five decades? A peep into the US Army psyche may be of some interest. Worried about the increasing requirement for strategic airlift, US Air Force was nudged to urge the government for funds “to keep the Boeing C-17 Globemaster-III production line open”.

However, problems arose with the announcement of US Defence Secretary Robert Gates to end the C-17 GlobemasterIII production line during FY-2010 budget request “saying the 205 strategic airlifters already in production are enough”. The tug of war inside the US establishment is still on as the Air Force “would have needed to increase its existing cap of strategic transport aircraft to accommodate a projected increase in ground forces”. And to make matters somewhat uneasy, the armed forces' Mobility Capabilities Study (MCS) recently assessed the “current strategic airlift capabilities” and concluded these capabilities could fulfil US military missions with “moderate” or “acceptable” risk, based on a fleet of 112 Lockheed C-5 Galaxy (which was first www.geopolitics.in

HEAVY-LIFT VETERAN: Seen here transporting the Bombardier coaches for the Delhi Metro, the AN-124 has acquired a legendary reputation inducted in 1969) and 180 C-17 Globemaster-III aircraft.

One of the most surprising users of C-17 today is the Qatar Emiri Air Force. The fleet of the Qatari Air Force consists of twenty aircraft, two of which are C-17s, forming 10 per cent of the air assets of a nation with an 8.5 lakh population.

One wonders who the actual user of this sophisticated long range aircraft possessed by such a small country could be! According to credible reports—though Qatar “does not have the military expeditionary requirement that would normally necessitate such a purchase, the country is looking to assume a much more prominent role in multinational

THE 78-TONNE PAYLOAD AND A 2500-MILE RANGE SET THE GLOBEMASTER APART FROM OTHERS

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operations in the region”. The fact is that the Globemaster-III will be used, for all practical purpose, by the “master of globe”, the US Air Force. Since Qatari Air Force is too small to fend off a determined and large-scale attack, it has per-force “decided to pass responsibility for securing the country's air space to the US Air Force units operating from Al Udeid air base”.

Compared to two strategic aircraft for a nation of 8.5 lakh people, no one can possibly grudge about the possession of ten C-17 Globemaster-IIIs by 1.2 billion Indians.

The mere purchase and possession of foreign-made sophisticated weapons does not necessarily make one a great power. With all the imported military hardware in her inventory, India also needs to appreciate and understand that no nation can attain greatness and become powerful without producing its critical and strategic defensive and offensive operations capability—which includes both hardware and software. The C-17 is a good buy. But it is also an expensive equipment. In the long run, there has to be an Indian made and manned Strategic Airlift Command.

(The author is an alumnus of the National Defence College.)

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NUMBERS GAME

PEOPLE OR MORE CRISS-CROSSED THE GLOBE WITH LOST OR stolen travel documents in the recent past. This alarming revelation by the Interpol is enough to send shivers down the spine of aviation security managers.

This means that in spite of strict travel laws terrorists and dangerous criminals continue to move from one country to another on stolen, falsified or lost documents. According to Interpol chief Ronald K Noble

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supposed to shut the Long Beach plant by 2012 after US Defence Secretary Robert Gates said that the transport plane programme was “wasteful expenditure”.

POLICE ‘FORTS’ TO COMBAT THE MAOIST REBELS ARE BEING

PLANNED BY the country’s security bosses. The 400 fortified police stations are being planned in eight Maoist-affected states. The government hopes the fortified police stations would stem the Maoist onslaught.

Eighty-five of these nearly 400 police stations will be in Bihar, followed by 75 each in Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand, 70 in Odisha, 40 in Andhra, 18 in Bengal, 15 in Uttar Pradesh and 12 in Madhya Pradesh according to the tentative plan.

Advance Passenger Information System (APIS) would help in countering terror threats to aviation security. Under APIS, information about all passengers in an aircraft is passed on o the destination country enabling the authorities to check the background of people slated to enter that country in a few hours.

BASIC TRAINERS REQUIRED BY THE IAF IN A $1 BILLION GLOBAL TENDER

AMERICAN JOBS SAVED BY INDIA’S DECISION TO GO

FOR the C17 Globemaster III tactical lift aircraft, saving its factory in Long Beach, California from closure. Around 4,500 Boeing employees support the C-17 programme with 3,700 workers in Long Beach and the rest based out of St. Louis, Georgia and Arizona. In addition to this, the C-17 has a supplier base of approximately 25,000 people in 44 states employed by around 600 American firms.

Boeing was

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the airline industry faced the “maximum threat” and “continues to be the prime target”.

The 40,000 travel documents belonged to 26 countries, which have since been informed by the Interpol. Noble also said there were a large number of “Al Qaeda-inspired groups” which posed the maximum level of threat to global security. Interpol has said that

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Six more C-17 Globemasters might join the ten accorded approval by the government.

According to IAF chief Air Chief Marshal P V Naik, existing Soviet-vintage IL-76 heavy-lift aircraft would last another 10 years, and the introduction of the Globemaster would be an appropriate replacement.

Inspite of being a giant airlifter with a 75-tonne capacity, it can work from very short and unpaved grassy airfields.

Officials say the measures will cost about `800 crore. The “forts” will have two tiers of “transparent” barbed-wire perimeter walls, and will be equipped with their own mobile towers. There will be enough ammunition stocks to last a siege. The police stations will be built on large area to minimise damage by grenades. This is the latest move in the fight against Naxalites after the Chhattisgarh government allotted about 50,000 hectares “on the fringes of Abujhmadh”, in Bastar, for the army training battalion, which was part of plans to create a sub-area command of the army in Chhattisgarh.

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FOR which the Swiss Pilatus PC-7 may turn out to be the aircraft of choice.

Two other models, the Korean Aerospace KT-1 and the HawkerBeechcraft T-6C Texan-II make up the final shortlist of three aircraft out of the six models, which participated in flight trials last year. Pilatus PC-7 Turbo Trainer is a lowwing tandem-seat training aircraft. The aircraft is capable of all basic training functions including aerobatics, instrument, tactical and night flying.

The Pilatus is in service with more than 20 air forces as their ab initio trainer. As a training platform, the docile behaviour of the PC-7 Mk-II provides confidence to inexperienced cadets. It’s extremely cost-efficient Pratt & Whitney PT6A25C engine, offers the lowest engine operating costs of all turbo-prop trainer aircraft. The India Air Force trainer aircraft deal could expand to 200 aircraft.

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KASHMIRI POLITICAL PRISONERS WERE IMPRISONED OVER PAST 20 YEARS IN THE

STATE ACCORDING to the Hurriyat Conference. The Conference said that Home Minister P Chidambaram has distorted figures by focusing solely on last year’s summer arrests and ignored the plight of Kashmiris jailed during the last 20 years.

On the other hand, Chidambaram had termed the figures of 1,465 political prisoners quoted by Syed Ali Gilani as

highly exaggerated. The Hurriyat said that the Home Minister had tried to water down the issue of illegally-detained Kashmiri Hurriyat leaders and activists by only talking about the people arrested during the 2010 summer uprising while ignoring the fact that hundreds of Kashmiris languish in jails for years without being involved in any criminal activity .

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BODIES OF REBELS WERE FOUND IN A MAOIST MASS GRAVE IN JHARKHAND

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MILITANTS ARE WAITING TO CROSS OVER INTO INDIA ON THE INDO-PAK BORDER. ACCORDING to BSF IG ( Jammu Frontier) SC Chattopadhyaya, these militants are grouped in eight different locations across the border. They are being trained in the region and will cross over into the country if they get a

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chance.The BSF said that the incident of cross border crossings had come down over the years. While there were 38 incidents of crossovers in 2010 from January to July, only nine such cases took place from July 2010 to June 2011.

POLICE FOUND the mass grave on a hill in a forest on the border of Ranchi and Khunti districts, considered to be a Maoist stronghold.

According to the police, these were the bodies of the rebels who died in clashes with the security forces. The Maoists do not usually allow the police to carry off the remains of their fighters. The graves were found when the police and paramilitary personnel were on a search operation in the area and locals told them about the presence of a mass grave. The locals say the bodies bore bullet wounds and some of them wore uniforms.

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16,000 MORE OFFICERS ARE WHAT THE INDIAN ARMY

PROPOSES TO add to its sanctioned strength. The suggestion comes at a time when the Army is facing a dearth of 12,349 officers against its sanctioned strength of around 46,500 officers. The Services are facing a shortage of 15,004 officers including 1,818 in the Navy and 837 in the Air Force. The Indian Air Force is also short of 426 pilots. Defence Minister A K Antony had recently said the deficit was partially ascribed to accrual from time-to-time, hard selection procedures, difficult service conditions together with perceived high degree of risk involved in enrolment and training.

The government has undertaken a number of measures to draw youth to join the armed forces including increasing the tenure of Short Service Commission (SSC) officers from 10 to 14 years, increasing promotional avenues for officers by restructuring of the officers’ cadre. The Army has increased its strength by two divisions in the Northeast along the Chinese border and is also caught up in counter-insurgency operations in the North eastern states and Jammu and Kashmir. According to the Army, a further enhancement in numbers of officers was essential to provide for future plans also.

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NATIONAL SECURITY DOCTRINE IN WRITING WITH THE government deciding on a comprehensive review of national security headed by former Cabinet Secretary Naresh Chandra, it is expected that India will have its firstever national security doctrine.

The doctrine would define India’s security concerns and how it plans to approach them. The doctrine would look at all aspects of security, including the economic, technological, political and scientific. It will also help better utilise national assets and set specific targets for various organisations.

Naresh Chandra

Security experts have often pointed out how the lack of a national security strategy is also hampering several other key aspects of India’s security apparatus. In most developed countries, national security Doctrines are among the key documents defining the nation-state. In the US, every President has to present his security strategy to the Congress.

Barack Obama released a 52page strategy in May 2010, significantly differing with George Bush.

The last time that India had conducted a review of Indian security was after the Kargil conflict of 1999. Late K Subramanyam, arguably the country’s finest contemporary strategic thinker, had headed the committee. Though it had come out with many recommendations, the “Kargil Committee” as it was popularly known, fell short of enunciating any overall strategic doctrine.

Long-range ICBM on cards THE DEFENCE Ministry is reportedly considering a proposal to develop intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of hitting targets 10,000 km away.

At present, there is a voluntary cap on developing missiles beyond 5,000-km range and the ICBM capabilities will propel India into the elite league of nations possessing the deterrent with nuclear warheads — China, the US, Russia and the UK. The proposal for developing ICBM capabilities has been moved by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) in May. Air Chief Marshal PV Naik is reportedly in favour of ICBMs with a strike capability of 10,000 km and beyond, given India’s growing influence globally. Besides, it will work as the deterrent to counter the growing military might of China. China has a very robust and the state-of-the-art missile programme, including ICBMs, and the capability to shoot down a missile in space.

As of now, Agni-III missile has a range of more than 3,000 km.

The Agni series of missiles fall into the category of intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM) which can hit a target at 5,000 km. It is said that the DRDO will carry out preliminary tests of Agni-V in December this year or early next year. This missile will have a range of 5,000 km.

India’s first fighter jet turns 50 HF-24 (MARUT), India’s first fighter jet aircraft, has completed 50 years since its maiden flight. To commemorate this occasion, Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) held its golden jubilee celebrations on June 17 at the Ghatge Convention Centre, HAL, Bangaluru.

From the designers, production personnel, test crew, maintenance personnel to the operational pilots, everyone who contributed to the Marut saga took part in the golden jubilee celebrations.

On June 17, 1961, with Gp Capt Suranjan Das at the controls, the HF-24 took to the air. On May 10, 1964, the first Maruts were handed over to the Indian Air Force.

HAL built 129 single seaters and 18 trainers from 1964 to 1977.

The Marut had successfully taken part in the war against Pakistan. Its squadrons ended the war with four Vir Chakras and a Mention in Despatches. The aircraft

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was immersed in controversy over its engines and that was a problem which remained insurmountable till the very end.

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The last sortie of the aircraft was flown on October 8, 1984, on Air Force Day by Wg Cdr Vikram Pethia before it was decommissioned.

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UAVs to monitor PLA INDIA IS now deploying spy drones or UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) and light observation helicopters along the borders with China to keep a hawk-eye on the stepped-up activities of People’s Liberation Army. The construction of over 5,500 “permanent defences and bunkers” along the borders is now being speeded up to ensure their completion

within four to five years, under the ` 9,243-crore military infrastructure development project approved by the Cabinet Committee on Security for the Eastern Army Command.

The Army is also pushing for a mountain strike corps after having raised two new mountain infantry divisions. The new divisions, with 1,260 officers and 35,011 soldiers, have their HQs in Zakama (56 Div) in Nagaland and Missamari (71 Div) in Assam.

Though quite belated, all these plans are meant to strategically counter China’s massive build-up of military infrastructure all along the 4,057-km Line of Actual Control (LAC) over the last two decades.

India armed Facebook not with credible safe for naval officers nuke deterrence AIR MARSHAL KJ Mathews, Commanderin-Chief of the Delhi-based tri-services outfit Strategic Forces Command (SFC), has said: “A lot of work is going on to keep the country in readiness to use its nuclear arsenal in case the need arose and that India is far ahead of its adversaries in terms of its nuclear firepower.”

Mathews said recently at a function in Bangaluru: “We (SFC) are in charge of development and delivery of nuclear weapons. We used to report directly to the Prime Minister instead of the Defence Minister. That way we are fortunate to have a little more freedom.”

Mathews told journalists that “weaponisation” of capabilities depended on the government, which acted upon the views of “a set of advisers” in such matters. He, however, refused to dwell further on the subject saying it was a “dangerous” territory. India, it may be noted, has never made any official statement about the size of its nuclear arsenal.

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Incidentally, with five fully-operational airbases, an extensive rail network and over 58,000-kms of roads in Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR), China can now move more than 30 divisions (each with over 15,000 soldiers) at their “launch pads” on LAC in double-quick time, outnumbering Indian forces by at least three-to-one.

China’s rapidly-expanding footprint in infrastructure projects in Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir, in the backdrop of the Beijing-Islamabad military nexus which targets India, has served to further heighten concerns in the Indian defence establishment.

The IAF is now also upgrading eastern sector advanced landing grounds like Pasighat, Mechuka, Walong, Tuting, Ziro and Vijaynagar as well as several helipads in Arunachal.

Army wants operational control of ITBP

INDIAN NAVAL officers have been directed to either delete their accounts or minimise putting up information and photographs of locations on the social networking site—Facebook—on grounds of security.

The decision was taken at the highest level with instructions going down to each formation recently as it has been found that officers were putting up photographs of their locations, ships and submarines. It came to light recently that officers posted in Russia or sailing in waters there had put up information on the site about their overseas deployment. This information could be accessed by those on the friends-list or even ‘friends of friends’ and hence there was a danger of misuse.

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WITH CHINESE troops continuing their aggressive “transgressions’’ across the Line of Actual Control (LAC), the Army wants the Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) to be placed under its “operational control’’ for better border management.

The Army contends India’s border management posture will acquire the muchneeded “cohesion, coordination and synergy’’ required to counter the People’s Liberation Army’s “offensive’’ posture if ITBP is placed under its jurisdiction.

The Army feels such a step will prove operationally productive as well as ensure optimal utilisation of resources especially in eastern Ladakh where ITBP, one of the seven central police forces under the Home Ministry, is responsible for border management of 826 km of the LAC

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COVERSTORY

“WE NEED TO CREATE AND

INNOVATE” There is no love lost between the DRDO and the armed forces. K SRINIVASAN finds out from Dr Prahlada, Chief Controller, Research & Development at DRDO Headquarters what the DRDO is doing, and its plans for the future and why the organisation is at the receiving end of the forces’ stick.

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“We are a country which has not even indigenously developed a car engine. Do you expect us to come up with an aircraft engine for a quality fighter plane in a jiffy?”

— Professor VK Aatre, Head of DRDO in 2000

COVERSTORY Eleven years later, the DRDO’s Gas Turbine Research Establishment had spent over `2000 crore in the 20-year programme, but produced an engine that was overweight and that failed to provide the 21,000-22,500lb (93-100kN) of thrust required for the Indian Air Force’s Tejas light combat aircraft. The engine, Kaveri — continues to be in its stages of development, but it is no longer indigenous. And because Kaveri is still under development, the LCA prototypes are using the American GE-F404 engines.

I

OPTIMISTS: Dr Prahlada (left), Chief Controller, Research & Development at DRDO Headquarters and V K Saraswat, DG, DRDO

n late January this year, just weeks before Aero India earlier this year, one was in conversation with Air Chief Marshal P V Naik when a question came on the Light Combat Aircraft (LCA). The normally voluble head of the Air Force froze; he simply didn’t want to go beyond the routine. It was evident that the DRDO (Defence Research and Development Organization) rankled his sensibilities, but as part of the government he didn’t want to raise their hackles.

Frankly, this is the sort of monumental esteem that the DRDO has been forced to live for its half centuryplus existence. The forces believe that they are stuffy, wooly babus masquerading as scientists and the DRDO returns the compliment with interest. They believe that senior military officers involved in procurement are against indigenisation efforts and that global manufacturers work in tandem with them to undermine the DRDO. The truth lies somewhere in between.

Dr Prahlada (Chief Controller, Research & Development at DRDO Headquarters) and Distinguished Scientist candidly admits that “I am not satisfied with the creativity at DRDO” or the ability to ‘innovate’. In more ways than one, he represents the archetypical babu-scientist that the armed forces so derisively put down. For the record, it may be mentioned that he was a DRDO scholarship student in his Masters programme, but chose to work with ISRO (Indian Space Research Organization) because the DRDO appointment letter never arrived “on time”. And when it did arrive months later (faster than the missiles they make!), his mother told him that it would be the DRDO for one plain reason. It was easier and cheaper to get to his hometown Bangalore from Hyderabad than it was from Tiruvananthapuram! That was in 1971 when he was 24.

“But let me tell you,” Dr Prahlada continues and adds, “I haven’t had a single dull day in all these years.”

Forty long years when he worked on a wide variety of projects, assisted Missileman Dr A P J Abdul Kalam before going to head the biggest DRDO lab, DRDL. “When the missile you have working on for months and years takes off into the sky, the heady feeling that overtakes you is indescribable. Not all the money in the world can compensate for that.”` Tell that to the forces and they’ll tell you that the DRDO believes that everytime a missile is launched, the man who lanched it will land in the Rashtrapati Bhawan!

In many ways, Prahlada is an oddity. He is willing to speak his mind, acknowledges that there is a place for the bureaucracy, but admits that it also hinders the process and doesn’t mind telling you that he is disappointed at the pace at which Indian science, or more July 2011

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g COVERSTORY specifically, scientists at DRDO have embraced the culture of research and development: “I am not satisfied with the creativity of our scientists, they are hardworking, but we need to be innovative.”

So how does one change that? He believes it’s a process and the country has to be prepared for the long haul. And it’s a combination of elements that make for this lack of scientific precision; a feudal culture, inability to combine as a unit, a lone ranger syndrome, a lack of industrial base have all played their part.

The happy part is he is sanguine and accepts that there are issues.

“We are now permitting 10-15 per cent spend on uncharted areas. Asking our scientists to come up with ideas.” But Prahlada acknowledges that not too many are coming through and “it is worrisome considering this is the decade of innovation”. This is exactly what the P Rama Rao Committee — which was formed in 2007 to review and suggest measures to improve the functioning of DRDO had said — that the major cause for delays and failures of indigenous defence products is DRDO’s tendency to over-estimate its capabilities. Coupled with the lack of creativity as Prahlada outlines it could indeed be devastating.

Like most of his peers, Prahlada is unperturbed by the torrent of criticism. He believes that the stages of the Indian scientific temper moving from the rigid and ossified follow the boss approach, is changing fast and changing dramatically. “It is happening rather fast,” he states and adds, “the ability to respect your peers and work as a team is now more and more evident. Or else how do you explain working with several labs, over 20 institutions and hundreds of companies to bring one product to the table.”

But what Prahlada and many others in the DRDO state is also a real nugget of truth. Is there anywhere in India where there is cutting edge R&D? And if the answer is a resounding no as most agree, then why is it so? The scientific advisor has an explanation: The lack of an industrial base like Korea, China or Singapore if one were to look at nations that have transformed in the last quarter century, that provides the discipline, the ability to work in groups under strict deadlines and financial overlays, are completely unknown to the Indian research community and only now becoming a part of the framework.

In fact, in all three major projects reviewed by the committee - the Light Combat Aircraft, the Arjun Tank, Kaveri engine and the Akash Surface-to-Air Missile - it was categorical that the DRDO’s poor planning, “over-optimism” and propensity to overstretch itself for fear of being bypassed and swamped by foreign col-

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laborations was one cause of the illness. The committee felt that collaborations should happen “without any reservations”. And from the planning to delivery be a time-bound decade-plus target and not the continuing saga as one sees with the LCA or the Arjun fiasco.

Prahlada says it is happening and the next decade should see a huge number of such collaborations: “Our collaborations are with Russia and Israel... France and the US are also keen to have a partner .What they are all interested in is joint co-production as well as long term research. I think you will see more and more collaborations in the coming years.” The fact that many of the advanced nations are vying to shake hands with India, Prahlada believes is a reflection of our capacity.

Many in the defence R&D community believe that the criticism is far too unfair. For them, the first and the second nuclear tests in 1974 and 1998 were ‘body blows’ for collabo-

THE STAGES OF THE INDIAN SCIENTIFIC TEMPER IS CHANGING FAST AND CHANGING DRAMATICALLY ration that forced the community to completely renew themselves internally and literally ‘reinvent the wheel’ in many cases. “When the Military establishment speaks of our so called ‘incompetence’,” one angry scientist said, “they fail to realize that we triggered the N-bomb that they now flaunt.”

But there are areas where the DRDO needs to spruce up its act. The Rama Rao report felt the DRDO needs to identify “8 to 10 critical areas which best fit their existing human resource, technical capability and established capacity” to take up new projects. But the organisation continues to run over 51 labs and focuses on mosquito repellants to Arjun tanks.

“DRDO thinks it is like GE. But to be GE you need the vision of Jack Welch and the vision to create the sort of global scale R&D infrastructure and set the paradigm that provides a huge number of innovative products.” In fact, the unnamed former defence scientist said the GE set up in Bangalore is the sort of campus that the DRDO must hope and want to emulate if they want to be “global players and not the laughing stock of the country”.

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Prahlada is candid enough to admit that there is still much that needs to be done if that cutting-edge discipline has to come. We are good in fundamentals, we have to bring that “focus to applications”. As our industrial base expands, it is inevitable that the ability to create “better applications” will improve. But he is disappointed with the present crop of Indian scientists. He finds them “less” hardworking and “better networked”. And while he doesn’t say so in as many words, it s apparent he is worried at the drift and the slow but steady shift of personnel to better paying jobs in the private sector. But surely, Dr Prahlada, the leadership too will have to take some of the blame, if the best are leaving young for other jobs. Is it that they are unable to motivate them, provide the right environment or it’s the inherent sluggishness of a sarkari environment that’s driving them away?

Prahlada doesn’t agree. No surprise, he has spent 40 years in DRDO, Dr Saraswat has spent 39 and his generation believes in the Japanese philosophy ‘one company, one life’.

He says that the younger generation while different in attitude and philosophy are committed to the DRDO. “The freedom that you get in our labs to create and deliver is unparalleled.”

If only we can innovate, he adds, we would be unbeatable.

Perhaps, it is this desire to provide them the spirit of innovation that the Defence Ministry is the setting up of a Defence Technology Commission (DTC), to be chaired by the Defence Minister, which would allow “DRDO to play a major role in the procurement policy”. The DTC will give DRDO a huge say in purchase of defence equipment from abroad.

Normally, the DRDO gets overruled on foreign purchases - a classic case is the Barak missile purchase, which is now under CBI investigation. DRDO wanted the Navy to wait until the Trishul was ready, according to the CBI investigation.

Most of all, the commission will outline a “clear-cut self-reliance policy” for setting up targets for sourcing defence products based on indigenous R&D. But that will happen only when the Commission gets going. Like the Akash missile, the DTC too is a work in progress.

Tell that to Prahlada and he laughs Indian scientists, he says, no more travel from Tiruvananthapuram to Hyderabad because their mothers asked them. Parents have changed, children have changed, Indian scientific temper has changed and the country is changing faster than “you and I” can imagine.

Hopefully his infectious optimism will generate enough horsepower to the LCA and help the DRDO move forward !

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g COVERSTORY e have delivered products and systems valued in excess of `1,30,000 crores to the forces,” quips Dr Prahlada, Chief Controller of Services Interaction and Aerospace Technologies at the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) in the midst of a discussion about the rather uneven relationship between the armed forces and DRDO. The figure does highlight the point that despite glaring institutional deficiencies and inadequacies in industrial capability, India’s indigenous defence programmes continue to chug along, thanks in no small measure to the efforts of DRDO—an organisation that is at the cusp of remoulding itself.

DRDO is increasingly looking at itself as some sort of an Indian DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Project Agency in the United States) whose role is to diminish the possibility of technological surprise while creating the same for India’s rivals. The organisation, which operates a vast network of over 50 laboratories, is currently undergoing a revamp of sorts as it braces for the new Defence Technology Commission (DTC) due to be es-

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tablished this year with the Defence Minister as its Chairman and supported by a secretariat located at DRDO Headquarters, New Delhi. The DTC will be analogous to the Atomic Energy Commission in its orientation and will oversee the transition of DRDO into a leaner entity. Some DRDO labs, for instance, may be merged with public institutions researching the same areas and the organisation’s current bureaucratic structure will be rationalised. The DTC will essentially streamline DRDO’s mandate and create a synergistic defence research environment in the country by removing duplication. Appointments will also be fast-tracked by the DTC. Even as DRDO downsizes by letting go of some non-core areas, it has, however, started putting in place limited production facilities of its own under a government-owned company (GOCO) format for key sub-systems.

This trend actually began with the Centre for Aerospace Products (CAP), Hyderabad, an eight-million-dollar production facility that has made India self-sufficient in electro hydraulic servo valves (EHSVs) which are a critical component in space, aircraft and weapon platforms. Given that provisions currently exist for DRDO to directly benefit from India’s

Despite relentless criticism of mismanagement and stagnation, the DRDO has created a techno-scientific eco-system for military research where none existed in the country. Profiling its various achievements and programmes, SAURAV JHA advocates that the 53-yearold organisation should now move from having successful ‘science’ projects to ‘war-winning’ ones.

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numerous foreign weapons acquisitions via offsets, this trend is likely to continue. Of course, offsets will also be used to set up testing facilities as epitomised by Boeing’s decision to help DRDO build a High Altitude Engine Test Facility as well as a Trisonic Wind Tunnel Facility to meet the offsets requirements of its 10 unit C-17 sale to India.

Another major deal through which DRDO may benefit is of course the $10-billion-plus Multirole Medium Range Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) programme. Although DRDO is obviously not involved in the acquisition process directly, its inputs were indeed sought by the government for defining India’s requirements on technology transfer both as part of the programme and elsewhere. Apparently, DRDO has already submitted its report on this count.

DRDO is also at the moment crafting a technology development and roadmap titled ‘Defence Technology Vision 2050’ which is expected to be ready by 2014.

These developments are rather indicative of DRDO’s ever widening role as a brains trust in India’s military-industrial landscape.

Talking of the future, it is quite clear that DRDO’s aviation cluster sets great store on unmanned technology, especially in the In-

FUTURE

LOFTY AMBITIONS: DRDO is increasingly looking at itself as some sort of an Indian DARPA

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g COVERSTORY telligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) role. According to Dr Prahlada, drones equipped with only current generation electro-optical payloads would have been far more effective in locating the crash site of the helicopter of the former Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister. Satellites, he believes, were not the best way forward and expects that the demand for drones in the combat search and disaster assessment roles will grow manifold in the near future.

DRDO’s Aeronautical Development Establishment (ADE) is, of course, pursuing a varied list of UAVs. It touts the success of the Lakshya in the aerial target simulator role and the truck-launched Nishant as a remotely-piloted vehicle that can be deployed in regions with no air-basing infrastructure. Both products have found favour with the services and are set to evolve further. ADE is developing the Lakshya-2 with enhanced endurance, autonomous and low-level flight capability, salvo flying, and automated test equipment. For the Nishant, a new 55 hp rotary, water-cooled Wankel engine is ready for integration. It was however clarified that no conventional takeoff (CTOL) variant of the Nishant is either planned or in development.

The current signature Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) effort is the Rustom project.

Two drones are under development as part of this project —the Rustom-I drone and the much larger and advanced Rustom-H. The former will operate at an altitude of around 7.6 km and sport a payload of 75 kgs for 12-15 hours. The Rustom-H, on the other hand, would be able to carry a 350-kg payload at altitudes of around 20 km for 24 hours at a stretch and would be useful even in the maritime reconnaissance and targeting role. The Rustom-I incidentally has grown out of the Rutan Long EZ demonstrator, the technology for which was acquired by DRDO in the early Nineties and exhibits the familiar trapezoidal configuration. The new test range at Chitradurga, Karnataka, for UAVs will germinate this programme.

An indigenous Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle (UCAV) named Aura is being developed in collaboration by a number of DRDO labs such as Aeronautical Development Agency , Defence Avionics Research Establishment (DARE), Defence Electronic Application Laboratory (DLRL) and of course ADE. The UCAV’s flight control system (FCS) and data link packages will be designed and developed jointly by ADE and DLRL. It will be capable of short run take-off and landing on prepared runways. Aura will have the capability to fly at altitudes of over 30,000 ft with an internal payload. It will also have bot manual

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DRDO IS UNDERGOING A REVAMP AS IT BRACES FOR THE NEW DEFENCE TECHNOLOGY COMMISSION and autonomous controls, a radar warning receiver, identification of friend or foe, and traffic collision avoidance systems.

Mirroring developments in the West, DRDO is also on the cusp of starting a programme for the creation of a solar-powered HALE UAV, which will be capable of 15-day continuous flight at altitudes over 30,000-feet with a payload of around 50 kg. The collaboration of Western companies is being sought for this project.

However, according to Dr Prahlada, there is no programme underway to develop a major vertical take of UAV in the Firescout class. He pointed out that the proposed Chetak conversion to a Naval Rotary UAV was a HAL programme in collaboration with the Israelis. DRDO may, of course, showcase some mini-VTUAVs like the Netra. Talking about smaller versions, DRDO is very keen on developing both micro and nano drones that can be used for tactical surveillance as well as lethal missions in the future.

It was noted in this context that developing drones that mimic the flight of insects is simpler than those that mimic birds and DRDO in collaboration with the National Aerospace Laboratory (NAL) may unveil insectlike drones in the near future.

While drone technology clearly assumes greater pride of

ALL-ROUND PROTECTION: A demonstration of DRDO’s combat free-fall system

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place, DRDO continues to gain maturity on the original unmanned aviation component of combat—missiles. On the strategic side of things the Hyderabad-based Advanced Systems Laboratory (ASL) seems all set to test the canisterised and road mobile 5000-km range Agni-V from the Odisha coast before the end of this year. This three-stage missile capable of carrying a payload of 2490 kg is critical to the future of India’s strategic deterrent capability. An even longer ranged AgniVI system (6000 km) with multiple independent re-entry vehicles (MIRV) and capable of being launched from land as well as underwater is also under development.

Missile defence efforts, despite recent criticisms, seem to be surging forward. While successful tests of both endo and exo-atmospheric systems have been carried out, it is clear that DRDO is now setting its sights really high in this domain. The test of a new exo-atmospheric interceptor with an altitude capability exceeding 150 km and ultimately being extended to 300 km is planned. Hit-to-kill technologies are also being developed. It seems that DRDO is putting in place the basic building blocks of an anti-satellite system, which can be operationalised subject to a political decision.

Moving onto tactical systems DRDO is very serious about delivering the Helina, a 7km range helicopterborne version of the Nag Anti-tank Guided Missile (ATGM). Helina is currently under testing and in the future may be further developed to reach a range of 20 km and be suitable for carriage by frontline jets, thereby making it an analogue of missiles such as Raytheon’s AGM-65 Maverick and the Russian Kh29.

One tactical missile of strategic import that DRDO is looking to mature quickly is the 80km range Astra beyond visual range air-to-air missile (BVRAAM), which is currently in the middle of an July 2011

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g COVERSTORY extensive testing programme.

Astra-2 with a head-on range exceeding 100 kms is very much on the cards and may form the basis of a future ground-launched low -level quick reaction missile.

Much nearer programme completion is the laser guidance bomb (LGB) kit, Sudarshan, which is being developed by ADE to improve the accuracy of conventional 1000 lb class dumb bombs. DRDO claims that the development of the kit has matured to the level of guiding a bomb within 10 m CEP and says that efforts to increase the kit’s EXTENSIVE PRODUCT PORTFOLIO: DG, DRDO, Dr. VK range capability is underway by Saraswat (centre) launching a new product for the armed using a global positioning system (GPS)-based inertial navigation system (INS). ing new ones via the participation of over 100 The focus on unmanned systems notwithdomestic institutions and enterprises. GTRE standing, the development of manned aircraft has also developed the Laghu Shakti engine remains a priority for an organisation that which will be featured in drones and cruise gave India the Light Combat Aircraft (LCA). missiles currently under conception.

While DRDO continues to work with HAL on One extremely quiet performer within the LCA Navy and LCA mark-2 versions, work DRDO is its naval cluster led by the Naval Scion the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft ence and Technological Laboratory (NSTL), (AMCA) programme is beginning to gather Vishakapatnam and the Naval Physical pace. The AMCA is being designed to be a Oceanographical Laboratory (NPOL), Kochi. truly fifth-generation aircraft in terms of In a fact openly acknowledged by the Navy, Instealth and super-cruise with some sixth-gendia has world-class sonar technology, thanks eration characteristics such as cloud shooting to the efforts of these labs. The Navy is curcapability and virtual man-machine interrently inducting NSTL’s Torpedo Advanced faces. The AMCA programme will, Light and is expected to place large orders for however, benefit only indirectly from the the heavier Varunastra torpedo once it comIndo-Russian FGFA programme in the sense pletes trials. DRDO’s naval cluster is also dothat some ADA scientist currently deputed to ing serious work on autonomous underwater the latter effort will return to become part of vehicles (AUV) and in the years to come one the AMCA programme once the design phase may start seeing as many programmes in this of the FGFA is complete. sphere as there are in the unmanned aviation Now, whether manned or unmanned, the domain, judging by the number of facilities engine forms the heart of any plane. DRDO being set up to aid AUV development. In anunderstands that despite decades of investother positive, DRDO’s Naval Materials Rement, India lags behind the West in the crucial search Laboratory (NMRL) based at Amberarea of jet propulsion technology. The muchnath, Maharashtra, has developed a maligned Bangaluru-based Gas Turbine and land-based prototype plug for an air indeResearch Establishment, however, feels that the Kaveri programme has turned the corner with the recent high-altitude flight tests in Russia, which were successful. Moreover, the JV with Snecma is expected to give DRDO access to critical engine core technologies—an area where it is lacking at the moment. In any case, the Kaveri programme will now move forward on parallel tracks with the JV with Snecma being used to develop a newer version of the engine using the ECO core and the recently launched DRDO Gas Turbine Enabling Technology (GATET) Initiative looking to improve the existing version and develop-

SEVERAL KEY PROJECTS HAVE BEEN DELAYED, TARNISHING THE IMAGE OF THE DRDO

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pendent propulsion (AIP) system for India’s indigenous submarinebuild programme once it gets underway.

The notable successes have, of course, come on the back of basic research, a point that DRDO chief V K Saraswat keeps highlighting.

And in keeping with that view NSTL recently unveiled the Seakeeping and Manoeuvering Basin (SMB), which is a state-of-the-art hydrodynamic model testing facility, and certainly one of the few of its kind in the world. The facility is the logical culmination of the assiduous development of various other hydrodynamic test forces facilities at NSTL such as the High Speed Towing Tank (HSTT) and the Cavitation Tunnel (CT), which were set up in 1992 and 2001, respectively. DRDO expects that the SMB will usher in self-reliance in hydrodynamic model testing in the country, while enhancing its ability to design and build state-of-the-art naval combatants such as torpedoes, mines, and submarines of strategic importance.

Basic research is, of course, going to be the lynchpin if DRDO has to keep delivering on ts mandate to develop weapons for the future.

And the future may belong to directed energy weapons (DEWs) such as lasers, high power microwaves (HPM) and radio-frequency weapons. DRDO certainly seems to think so and recently opened the JC Bose microwave facility at its Microwave Tube R&D Centre colocated with Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL) in Bangaluru to add to its existing DEW research centers such as Laser Science and Technology Centre (LASTEC) Delhi, which is actually DRDO’s oldest lab set up as the Defence Science Laboratory (DSL) in 1950.

Nevertheless, DRDO insiders say they are still a good 10-15 years away from deploying battlefield strength (i.e at least 100 kW) solid state lasers. It seems that developing efficient enough ceramics is the biggest hurdle at the moment. Lower power lasers are of course already seeing deployment in the form of dazzlers, detection and ranging devices as well as those suitable for deflagrating improvised explosive devices (IEDs).

HPMs may, however, see earlier deployment. Cooperation with the Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) in the area of directed energy remains a possibility.

A meeting of current and future ways of warfare is also seeing a merger in DRDO with systems such as the Centre for Airborne Systems (CABS) indigenous Airborne Early July 2011

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LOW TECH, HIGH POLITICS? The DRDO was formed in 1958 by amalgamating the Army’s Technical Development Establishment and the Directorate of Technical Development and Production. It was then a small organisation with 10 laboratories. Today, it has more than 50 labs and a workforce of more than 5,000 scientists and nearly 25,000 scientific, technical and supporting personnel spread across the country.

Yet, several major projects for the development of missiles, armaments, Light Combat Aircraft, radar and electronic warfare systems have been delayed. So much so that the armed forces have often complained that the organisation is incapable of producing what they want.

In essence, the DRDO has been said to be beset with three problems: First, there has been a mismatch between the DRDO’s assertions and its actual capabilities. It has been argued that without proven ability, in the early ‘80s, the DRDO undertook major projects: aircraft, battle tanks, missiles. India invested large amounts of funds in each of these projects, more on promise than on demonstrated abilities.

Secondly, as Major General (Retd) Ramesh Suri, who was once associated with the DRDO, says, the DRDO has a “politicised internal culture”. Its funding has been enabled by the traditionally close linkages between the scientific community and their political masters.

Project proposals often were not duly scrutinised; yet the funding was sanctioned. Once the projects were underway, subjective peer-reviews — by convenient peers selected by the developing agency itself — were put in place. Such informal reviews can never substitute for a hardnosed technical audit. Various steering and working group committees were put in place—but they were given no authority to pull the plug if they were not satisfied. Cost and time overruns were infinitely flexible, with no accountability for delay or failure.

Thirdly, there has been an unmistakably antagonistic attitude between the DRDO and the military. The armed forces have not liked the DRDO’s “take it or leave it” approach, it is said.

DRDO has created a techno-scientific eco-system for military research where none existed in the country.

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AIRBORNE SPECTACLE: A DRDO aerostat on display at Aero India 2011 Warning & Control System based on Embraer’s ERJ-145 platform and scheduled to begin flight testing in early 2012. DRDO is aware of the worldwide trend to combine electronic and cyber techniques in future warfare and subsequent versions of the CABS aircraft could become test beds for some evolving concepts in this domain. In general DRDO does seem to have delivered some very robust electronic warfare (EW) systems to the forces and this was attested to recently by the incumbent Air Chief.

Work on newer generation EW systems nevertheless continues apace at the new high-tech facility for testing EW systems and other devices near Dundigal.

Even as the media continues to focus on more glamorous projects such as UAVs and missiles, the life sciences cluster of DRDO is hard at work at many of the technologies that enhance the performance of the most basic unit of warfare—the soldier itself. DRDO actually has the most diverse products in this realm that range from thermally regulated shelters to herbal adaptogenic appetizers to a nanotechbased drug delivery system, which sends medicinal drug particles directly to the lung of soldier stricken at high altitude. Though innocuous sounding, these products go a long way in boosting the health and morale of the infantryman.

The Life Sciences cluster is actually the centre of many of DRDO’s nanotechnology initiatives and may yield in the future products such as paints that can camouflage men and materials, bio-sensors that could revolutionise medical diagnostics and various corrosion resistant technologies with applications spanning from aerospace to energy. In fact, this is also an area where DRDO’s new- found need to operate certain kinds of production facilities is at display, in

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the form of a $ 125 million nano-foundry, which is proposed to be set up in either Bangaluru or Hyderabad.

Even as DRDO charts out new paths, it can take pride in some of its current achievements such as the Akash programme and the development of the Arjun tank. Incidentally, DRDO has just begun trials of the Mark-2 version of the Arjun tank, which will feature some 93 improvements over the Mark-I version. Although the Israeli LAHAT missile was tested on the Mark-I it is only on the Mark-2 that it will be integrated as part of the tank’s array of weapons.

The Indian Army expects to take the tank for user trials in 2013 and induct it later that year.

Coming back to the Akash, a newer version of the missile ( Mark-2) with extended range and possibly an added Imaging Infrared (IIR) sensor is on the anvil. DRDO also continues to notch successes in areas such as radars and other ISR systems, notably Aerostats.

Heading into the 21st century we find a DRDO that has delivered well on some counts, has been at par in others and failed in some. But what observers often fail to see is that DRDO has created a techno-scientific eco-system for military research where none existed in the country. Instead of being overly critical, it is time that this was broad-based by focusing on the delivery aspect, i.e, production side of weapons, which cannot be fixed by DRDO or any one entity. It would require the careful cultivation of a military-industrial complex that involves the private sector fully and allows interaction between DRDO and industry in a more direct manner with the end-user, i.e the military involved from the beginning of the chain. It is high time India’s defence eco-system moved from having successful ‘science’ projects to ‘war winning’ ones.

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HOLY COW OR CASH COW With the illicit business of cattle smuggling running into crores of rupees, it will take more than the might of the BSF to control the menace

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5000 MORE FOR ANTINAXAL OPS

ODISHA AND Chhattisgarh are keen to step up the offensive against Maoists and the Centre will rush an additional 5,000 central paramilitary personnel to the states in the next couple of weeks to carry out joint operations, specifically along the inter-state borders.

Chhattisgarh has more than 12,600 paramilitary personnel compared to over 7,200 personnel in Odisha. These personnel are drawn from CRPF, BSF and ITBP. It was also decided that the progress of the ongoing anti-Naxal operations would be reviewed in a conference of Chief Ministers of nine Naxal-affected states in July.

After a recent meeting with the CMs from the two states, Home Minister P Chidambaram said, "We have made very clear that no operation will be conducted without the complements of state police. Earlier practice has been completely discontinued since a year-and-a-half.

Now, all operations are conducted by the paramilitary forces with the complements of state police. All operations are now joint operations."

Chhattisgarh CM Raman Singh agreed: “Central forces cannot do it alone. State police has to be there. It is not right to say that the casualties are only from paramilitary forces. Whoever comes under fire, they face the casualty. So, joint operation has to be there.”

Chidambaram earlier said violence and the number of casualties had been reduced considerably in areas falling under 270 police stations in 64 districts in eight states. “Up to June 14, there have been 811 incidents (1,025 last year) resulting in 270 deaths (473 last year). Of the 270 persons who were killed, 190 were civilians (296 last year) and 80 personnel of the security forces (177 last year),” he said. www.geopolitics.in

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g TRAINING UNDER THE SHADOW OF THE MAOISTS DEFENCE MINISTER AK Antony said army units near the Maoist areas of Chhattisgarh would only be in training and not deployed for operations. “It (Chhattisgarh) is not enemy territory,” he said, when asked what role was envisaged for the Army that this month sent two units near a suspected Maoist base in Abujhmarh area.

“The Army is training in many states… because they want to have a feel of all kinds of terrain — deserts, mountains and plains. They are now establishing a new training unit there,” he said.

The presence of the Army in an area where the military had no base has been opposed by the Maoists. Some experts believe the killing of 18 policemen in three successive attacks in Narayanpur and south Dantewada districts was an expression of the Maoists’ aggressive intent.

In January, Army Chief Gen. V K Singh had said that he had asked the government for “rules of engagement”. This requires the Union Home Ministry to clarify to the Army if it can fire or counter-attack if baited by the Maoists.

The Army does indeed have a shortage of training ranges. But the choice of a range in the Maoist areas has many meanings. First, it helps the Army establish a staging post if it has to go into operations. Second, the Army also gets to know and map a terrain where it never

really had reason to venture into.

Antony said the Amy’s presence in Chhattisgarh is not intended to escalate conflict. “The land is allotted only for training. We will not cut a single tree, we will not harass anybody there.

We are not against anybody, it is not an enemy territory,” he said.

When it announced it was opening a “manoeuvre range” in south Chhattisgarh last December, the Army in a note said: “This will be the first time that any sizeable strength of the army moves into this region. The deployments will indeed open up the region to the outside world.

“Purchase of local materials and supplies will bring in jobs and finance to cash-strapped villages. The presence of the Army will also bring a feeling of security to the villages.”

HOME MINISTER TO VISIT DHAKA INDIAN HOME Minister P Chidambaram will be going to Dhaka in the second-half of August under a Home Minister-level exchange programme. During Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s visit to Delhi last year, it was decided that there would be Home Minister-level periodic exchange programmes. The idea is for the two sides to help understand each other better and discuss everything under the sun that concerns neighbours. Water Resources Minister Salman Khursheed will also accompany the Home

Minister when the Teesta water sharing treaty is likely to be finalised. Congress President Sonia Gandhi is scheduled to visit Dhaka on July 25 and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is likely to visit in September or October.

P Chidambaram

R K SINGH NEW HOME SECRETARY RAJ KUMAR Singh, an IAS officer of the 1975 batch, has taken over as the new Union Home Secretary. His name was cleared by the Prime Minister’s Office. Singh, a Bihar cadre officer, succeeded GK Pillai who retired on June 30.

Raj Kumar Singh was earlier secretary, defence production, in the Ministry of Defence and had once served in the Home

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R K Singh

Ministry as a joint secretary for about five years.

GK Pillai, a 1972 batch Kerala cadre IAS officer, took charge as home secretary in June 2009 — seven months after the Mumbai terror attack — and oversaw the complete overhaul of the country’s security establishment.

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effective implementation of the coastal security scheme in Gujarat. Centre has cleared Gujarat’s long-pending demand of approving more coastal police stations in the state and the state government has, in principle, decided to establish a special marine police cadre for effective running of the newly started coastal police stations in Gujarat. The state government has already started training an elite police commando force after the 2008 Mumbai terror attack.

MUMBAI OPEN TO ATTACK FROM HIGH SEAS NEARLY 38 high-speed interceptors, procured at a cost of ` 125 crore to apprehend terrorists who venture within five nautical miles of Mumbai, will be out of commission till

September because of the rains.

The boats, say policemen, have been docked because it is too risky to operate them when the waves are high, like they are in the monsoon.

This leaves the area of five nautical miles from Mumbai’s coast to be patrolled only by the Indian Navy and Coast Guard, whose boats are bulky and largely incapable of patrolling the shallow waters near the coast line. Equipped with light machine guns and other weaponry, the 38 interceptors were deployed to keep the western coast safe from sea-borne terror attacks after 26/11.The fleet has, however, been docked till the time the sea gets relatively calm.

NEW ANTI-TERROR TRAINING SCHOOL THE COUNTER-Insurgency and Jungle Warfare School of Indo-Tibetan Border Police has been formally sanctioned by Home Minister P Chidambaram, for the exceptional and state-of-the-art training it is providing.

The school functioned as a selffunded training camp until its formal approval. Set up as a specialised training camp in the hills of Uttarakhand around two years ago with a mission to establish a force to take on Maoists and other insurgents, the school is now set to take on special tasks in counterterror operations as well. According to the ITBP located at an altitude of 6,350 feet in Mahidanda, in the heart of Himalayan terwww.geopolitics.in

INTERNAL SECURITY

INDO-US HOMELAND SECURITY DIALOGUE

NSG HUB IN GUJARAT THE MINISTRY of Home Affairs (MHA) has asked the Gujarat government for land for the regional hub of the National Security Guards (NSG) and the Indian Coast Guard in the state. Coast Guard has been given temporary office space in Udyog Bhavan, Gandhinagar. It is likely that the NSG will also get land near Ahmedabad or Gandhinagar because of their prime requirement is proximity to a functional airport, which is in Ahmedabad. Vital installations are also in Ahmedabad and Gandhinagar, which can be soft targets for terrorists.

The state government in turn has sought MHA’s permission to set up a Coast Guard Station at Hazira near Surat. The area has a huge concentration of important industrial installations with more coming up in the proposed Dahej Petroleum, Chemical and Petrochemical Investment Region (PCPIR). The state government has also requested MHA for

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rain, it is also one of the highest training camps in the country. The school primarily focuses on training the new entrants in the force as well as orienting serving personnel deployed in various areas to handle counterinsurgency and jungle warfare operations.

The comprehensive training includes handling of special equipment, rock craft, unarmed combat, special operations in rural and urban environment and guerrilla warfare.

Besides preparing junior cadre for varying situations, the school gives key emphasis on physical and mental conditioning, developing reflexes and enhancing quick and effective firing skills.

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INDIA AND the United States have agreed to strengthen counter-terrorism and related security cooperation between the two countries. This was affirmed in the India-US Homeland Security Dialogue that concluded recently between Home Minister P Chidambaram and US Department of Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano.

The two leaders noted the contribution of existing mechanisms such as the Joint Working Group on Counter-terrorism, established in 2000, the Defense Policy Group and the Aviation Security Working Group and the Counter-terrorism Cooperation Initiative of July 2010 in advancing India-US cooperation.

The two also talked about cooperation in the investigations into the Mumbai terror attack in November 2008 and reiterated their governments’ commitment to bring the perpetrators and the supporters of the Mumbai attack to justice. They decided to foster capacity building in areas including counter-terrorism, counter-narcotics, counterfeit currency, illicit financing and transnational crime, security of infrastructure, transportation and trade, coastal security and large city policing. The need for appropriate government agencies to work together and share best practices to enhance the security and resilience of the global supply chain was also agreed upon.

The leaders also affirmed the importance of increased dialogue and cooperation in the area of cyber security. They also welcomed the decision of the two governments to negotiate a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the Indian Computer Emergency Readiness Team (CERT) and its American counterpart (US CERT). They agreed that the two governments should maintain a regular dialogue to share information and assessment on equipment, technologies and systems for homeland security and counter-terrorism; and, to facilitate bilateral technology transfer and trade in these items.

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WHERE’S THE BEEF? Most Indian politicians don't discuss the thriving business of cattle smuggling from Hindu-majority India, where the animals are revered, to Muslim-majority Bangladesh, where people eat beef. It is usually the Border Security Force that gets the blame for its inability to stop the phenomenon whenever the issue is raised. But the criticism meted out to the BSF is unfair as cattle smuggling is a complex issue, reports ROHIT SRIVASTAVA

TO THE SLAUGHTERHOUSE: Stretched thin guarding the eastern frontier, the BSF hardly has the resources to control the menace of cattle smuggling

D

ESPITE most of the 4,096-km India-Bangladesh border being fenced, cattle smuggling to Bangladesh continues unabated, with the Border Security Force (BSF), which is entrusted with the task of guarding the border, becoming helpless. Cattle smuggling has become such a thriving business for Indian and Bangladeshi smugglers that it is estimated that the quantum of money that gets transacted is over `10,000 crore per annum. About 15,000 cattle, mostly cows, are smuggled from India every month with the help of touts. www.geopolitics.in

Of course, Indian government has been worried about this phenomenon, but, it cannot do much, said a senior official in the Home Ministry. That is because two-third of the porous border is riverine. “It is impossible to stop the smuggling not only because of the riverine border but also because the border at many places passes through houses,” he added. It is very difficult for the BSF jawans to swim and catch the cattle, which are left in the rivers in flocks. Even boats are of not much help because the cattle overturn them.

Hundreds of cattle are brought from as far as Haryana, Punjab, Rajasthan and Uttar

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Pradesh to the Bangladesh border for smuggling. Most of the smuggling takes place during nights under the cover of darkness. “In fact, in 70 per cent cases, cattle smuggling is the reason for firing by security forces. This leads to death of smugglers. Ninety-eight per cent of the killings in firings take place during nights and 60 per cent of those killed are Indians,” a BSF official revealed, adding: “Many of our jawans also get killed and injured”. (see Box) Speaking to Geopolitics on the issue, press minister of Bangladesh High Commission, Enamul Hoque Chowdhury, said, “Smuggling July 2011

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some are diverted to Assam and Meghalaya.

The movement of cattle from one state to another is not illegal and thus it does not warrant any legal action. Any person on the border villages can buy and keep cattle from any one and that is not a crime. The BSF, which does not have any mandate to take pre-emptive action, has to wait and watch for any border violation.

diet of the region, but stocks are depleting due to pollution, forcing people to go for beef instead. Another aspect is that in Bangladesh, ‘processed beef’ is exported on a large scale, earning hard currency for the impoverished nation.

BSF officials suggest that Murshidabad — Charland, Behrampur and Maldah in south Bengal are the main areas of smuggling. North Bengal is almost completely fenced and there are very few gaps in the riverine areas. South Bengal, which is highly riverine but very close to national highway and thus easy for transportation of the cattle, has the most number of smuggling points.

The smugglers collect the animals and wait for night when they can overpower the BSF guards through the sheer shock of hundreds of animals running across the border. In the riverine regions they put the animals into boats on the river and then swim with them.

When the BSF boats try to catch the cattle, these smugglers capsize their boats. A battle

expensive. There is another adverse fallout, too. Uninterrupted smuggling of cattle from Meghalaya to Bangladesh has also damaged large areas of orchards and betel nut plantations. Local villagers have complained often that their orchards and betel nut plantations have been severely damaged by hordes of cattle driven by smugglers everyday. The modus operandi of the smugglers is to drive the cattle through the orchards in order to avoid being detected by the BSF guards.

Cattle smuggling usually follows a pattern — unproductive cattle from all over the country is first bought to West Bengal. From there,

As per law, whenever the BSF captures any cattle, it is supposed to hand them to the Customs authorities. Then, as per norms, the Customs officials auction them at the local level.

The same cattle rotates through this process continuously. Sources in BSF suggest that even after five rounds of Customs auctions, the cattle remains economically viable as the demand of beef in Bangladesh is very high.

Bangladesh is primarily a delta where land availability is very low. Since the population has exploded in the last 30 years and the pressure on land is very high it cannot afford more grazing land to raise cattle. Fish is the staple

then ensues in the river in pitch darkness, between the border guards and the smugglers, amidst thousands of terrified cattle.

This whole business provides jobs at every level of society. The problem is very closely linked with the change in the demography of the region due to infiltration from Bangladesh.

The same people live on both sides of the border making it virtually non-existent for them.

Even after fencing, the population has got segregated but links remain very strong.

A senior official from the Ministry of Home Affairs said on condition of anonymity that : “This is a sensitive issue as here Muslims are

www.geopolitics.in

CATTLE SMUGGLING IS A THRIVING BUSINESS WORTH OVER `10,000 CRORE PER ANNUM

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July 2011

Courtesy: www.panoramio.com

across the border is like the flow in the river; water always flows downwards. Here, you have commodity and there is a demand for that. Smugglers don’t have any territory; they mean their business. In Bangladesh we also have restrictions. This is not the only item: there are hundreds of items which also come to India illegally and vice versa. It needs mutual understanding to end this smuggling.”

If a BSF official is to be believed, “selling cattle is not a crime. It is a crime only when the cattle cross the border. The BSF is legally expected to stop it in last 100 yards before the border”. But since it is proving difficult given the nature of the border, he suggested: “It is better to legalise it. The moment this trade is legalised, it will lose its charm. After all, for us it is smuggling, for them it is a trade.”

Cattle smuggling, however, is not localised to Bengal. Assam and Meghalaya are equally affected. In fact, Meghalaya, where people eat beef, is suffering: with the ever-growing smuggling of cattle, beef is becoming rare and more

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FIGURES OF INJURY TO BSF PERSONNEL ON EASTERN BORDER Year 2009 Frontier

Const

HC

SI

Insp

AC

Total

SB Ftr

05

-

-

-

-

05

NB Ftr

-

-

-

-

-

-

A&M Ftr

01

-

-

-

-

01

TRA Ftr

02

03

01

-

-

06

M&C Ftr

-

-

-

-

-

-

Total

08

03

01

-

-

12

Frontier

Const

HC

SI

Insp

AC

Total

SB Ftr

23

05

01

-

-

29

MLD Ftr

-

01

01

-

-

02

NB Ftr

11

-

01

01

15

A&M Ftr

03

02

-

-

-

03

TRA Ftr

03

-

02

-

-

05

M&C Ftr

01

-

-

-

-

01

Total

41

08

04

01

01

55

Year 2010

Year 2011 (Up to 30th April) Frontier

Const

HC

SI

Insp

AC

Total

SB Ftr

19

07

03

01

-

30

MLD Ftr

01

-

-

-

-

01

NB Ftr

04

-

01

-

-

05

A&M Ftr

-

-

-

-

-

-

TRA Ftr

02

-

-

-

-

02

M&C Ftr

-

-

-

-

-

-

Total

26

07

04

01

-

38

SB — South Bengal, Ftr — Frontier, NB — North Bengal, A&M — Assam-Meghalaya, TRA — Tripura, M&C — Murshidabad and Charland Const— Constable, HC — Head Constable, SI — Sub-Inspector, Ins — Inspector, AC — Assistant Commandant Casualty - On the night of May 30, 2011 night Head Constable Kantaraj died in injury from sharp-edged weapons by cattle smugglers in Maldah during seizure of cattle on the border. He was attacked along with his buddy pair. Police has arrested some Bangladeshis in this connection. www.geopolitics.in

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involved. In the last decade, the demography of the border districts has changed and the political class is aware about this but cannot do much, thanks to the importance of minority votes in Indian politics.”

Sometimes, the BSF raids villages when it has information about cattle being assembled for smuggling. But it faces major problems when local villagers claim ownership. This is where the local administration can help by tracking the sudden arrival and disappearance of large herds of cattle. This tracking can help nail the smugglers but the local administration is not proactive. A BSF official said, “When you make raids, you have to enter villages, but going into villages means facing many allegations ranging from rape to human rights violation. We take along many representatives of various agencies like Customs, police, and lady officers. In spite of all this, we still get the blame.”

Interestingly, Bangladesh Rifles, which has become cooperative under the regime of Sheikh Hasina, has responded positively when informed about incidents of smuggling. They have captured animals and returned them, informed BSF officials. But the local administration in West Bengal, under the local political leadership, had not taken any serious action against the smugglers. The problem is further confounded by the fact that religious groups like Tabligi Jamaat, which has massive network on both sides of the border, play a significant role in this business, according to another BSF officer.

Enamul Chowdhury responded to this by saying that: “All the fundamentalist groups used to shelter and help the smugglers, but under the present regime of Sheikh Hasina, we have stopped them.

Unfortunately, our sincerity is not recognised in India. All told, Bangladesh smugglers don’t take cattle from Indian houses. They take them from smugglers in India. The problem needs to be addressed by both the governments.”

A senior Home Ministry official said, “The major issue in this whole problem is that no government in India can allow cattle export legally as it will become a public issue. But Bangladesh has requested for exports to be allowed.” To find a way out, the Home Ministry has planned local haat — market, where products can be sold legally by both sides.

Speaking about this solution, Enamul Chowdhury said, “Where the two governments and officials are concerned, every year officers meet to discuss these issues. From our side we have suggested to increase such meetings to 48 times a year. If meetings are frequent, the force can be kept more alert. This sort of smuggling will decrease. Bangladesh government never encourages smuggling. I hope the Government of India understands this.”

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UNEXPECTED CONDEMNATION: After Operation Geronimo, the Maoist leadership in India expressed concerns regarding an Abbottabad-style operation against it

OSAMA AND THE MAOISTS First was Osama bin Laden and now Iliyas Kashmiri. Given the surgical precision with which American forces are eliminating the dreaded terrorists, the question is whether the Indian security forces may replicate such acts within, if not without, particularly against the dreaded Maoists. The Indian Maoist leadership has already shown signs of concern in that regard. Reportedly, it is moving into cities to evade the clutches of the paramilitary.

Will the police be able to nab it in the urban areas? Human intelligence holds the key, argues UDDIPAN MUKHERJEE

I

T WAS rather instinctive for Noam Chomsky to decry Operation Geronimo executed by the American Navy SEALs on May 2, 2011, and term it as “a planned assassination, violating elementary norms of international law”.

Nonetheless, deceased Osama bin Laden received consolation from some unprecedented quarters. And such signs of camaraderie were neither merely symbolic norperfunctory.

On May 4, 2011, the Communist (Maoist) Party of Afghanistan issued a statement on Laden’s death, which was redolent of hatred against the ‘neo-imperial’ American power.

It read: “Unquestionably, the murder of bin Laden will, to a certain extent, result in the www.geopolitics.in

global weakening of al Qaeda and the Taliban movement in Afghanistan. But this will be the weakening of the reactionary resistance against American imperialism and its cronies. We should strive to use such a development in carrying forward the People’s Revolutionary War of national resistance against the occupiers of Afghanistan.”

In this regard, the Communist Party of India (Maoist) too was not left behind as compared to its Afghan counterparts. And could it have been just pure coincidence that on May 4 itself, the Central Committee of CPI (Maoist) came out with a press release which went thus: “War-monger, butcher and blood-thirsty Obama and not Osama is the No.1 global terrorist threatening world

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peace! US imperialism and not al Qaeda is the gravest global threat not only to the entire oppressed nations and people of the world but also to the US citizens!” In fact, the Indian Maoists were far more vocal in chastising America, Israel and the ruling elites of both Pakistan and India. In that very press release, the Indian insurgents lambasted the molestation of Pakistan’s sovereignty.

Amidst this brouhaha, however, what one tends to forget is that the Americans were basically following counter-terrorism (CT) principles advocated by their Vice-President Joe Biden. His theory of targeting high-profile honchos of al Qaeda and Taliban gelled with the counter-insurgency (CI) campaign in the Afghan rural hinterlands as propounded by July 2011

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DECAPITATION STRIKE: Elimination of top Maoist leaders like Kishenji may be effectively compounded with a tribal-friendly CI campaign

www.geopolitics.in

hardly appeared for media interviews in the recent past. They are very wary of the spate of arrests of several of their state and central committee members by the police.

Starting from Narayan Sanyal in late 2005, the range of arrests did not spare politburo member and ideologue Kobad Ghandy in 2009. Both of them are still incarcerated.

In 2010, CPI (Maoist)’s erudite spokesperson Cherukuri Rajkumar alias Azad was eliminated in an encounter with the police. Several other key members have also been arrested, which has necessarily weakened their structure.

For instance, in the first week of December 2010, the Special Task Force (STF) of Kolkata Police arrested Kanchan alias Sudip Chongdar, the West Bengal State Secretary of CPI (Maoist). Kanchan is considered to be next in hierarchy to Kishenji. This high-profile arrest came months after the state

TOP MAOISTS ARE ON THE RUN AND HAVE HARDLY APPEARED FOR ANY MEDIA INTERVIEWS RECENTLY

committee leader Telugu Deepak was netted in March 2010 from Kolkata itself. In addition, on April 28, 2011, Varanasi Subarmanyam, Vijay Kumar Arya and Pulendu Shekhar Mukherjee were arrested from Katihar district, Bihar.

Such alacrity by the police has forced the Maoists to suffer from a leadership crisis. With respect to Kanchan’s arrest, Akash, a senior member of the West Bengal state committee, confessed: “The arrest is unfortunate and is no doubt a jolt to our organisation.”

Such a feeling of ‘loss’ is corroborated by general secretary Ganapathy in his interviews. He laments: “The loss of leadership will have a grave impact on the party and Indian revolution on the whole.” To combat such security aggression by the state forces, he stresses, among other things, on “secret methods of functioning, smashing enemy intelligence networks and studying their plans and tactics”.

One of the chief reasons for the feeling of discomfiture of the Maoist leadership is the fact that top leaders have reportedly taken shelter in the urban areas. A Ganapathy or a Kishenji taking refuge in Hyderabad or Kolkata may not be totally unfounded as in the last couple of years Maoist activity has surged in and around major cities of India. Maoist activists have been nabbed from Pune, Delhi, Kolkata and even Mohali.

The police have been vigilant and deserve adulation.

Courtesy: www.topnews.in

General Petraeus and John Nagl under the doctrinal aegis of the meaty Field Manual on Counterinsurgency. The latter concept got its hearty approval from the incumbent American President. The people-friendly CI continues in the tribal areas of Afghanistan as that model had worked well in Iraq. At least, it yielded tangible results so as to retrieve the combat troops from the region.

Nevertheless, whether the job is of ‘winning hearts and minds’ in CI or conducting drone and stealth operations in CT, ‘human intelligence’ holds the key to success. Technology might have progressed by leaps and bounds and we might be discussing fourthgeneration warfare while analysing insurgencies, some basic norms have hardly altered. Gathering intelligence at the grassroots still tends to act as a game-changer in a small war. STRATFOR’s Fred Burton concurs with such a school of thought when he asserts: “All this surface-level discussion of sovereignty etcetera, however, largely ignores almost 10 years of intelligence development in the hunt for bin Laden.”

Burton correctly emphasises the need for intelligence on the ground as he writes: “While the cross-border nighttime raid deep into Pakistan was a daring and daunting operation, the work to find the target — one person out of 180 million in a country full of insurgent groups and a population hostile to American activities on its soil — was a far greater challenge.”

Human intelligence becomes more than pertinent in an environment where the insurgent leaders — the main targets for the counter-insurgents — start to shun ‘technology’ and rely on human couriers. As is already known by now, Osama in his last years at Abbottabad hardly used the internet.

And it was the human courier Abu Ahmed alKuwaiti, who ultimately paved the way for nabbing Osama.

It is evident that the Indian Maoists too are aware of such a scenario. It is not without rationale that post-Operation Geronimo, the leadership of the CPI (Maoist) expressed concerns regarding an Abbottabad-style operation against it by the Indian security forces.

Top Maoist leaders of India, in order of hierarchy, Muppala Lakshmana Rao alias Ganapathy, Prashanta Bose alias Kishanda and the media-savvy Mallojula Koteswara Rao alias Kishenji are on the run. They have

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CULLING OUT THE THREAT: The challenge for police is locating and identifying a ‘suspect’ in a huge population amongst an array of criminal elements The paramilitary too is trying to tie up its laces in reaction to the aftershocks of the 2010 Dantewada ambush and a plethora of similar downturns in its CI campaign against the Indian Maoists. On April 11, 2011, K Vijay Kumar, the Director General of Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF), informed that the CRPF was looking forward to formally opening its own intelligence wing in a bid to tackle the rebels on a stronger basis.

If the likes of Ganapathy actually move into the cities to evade the eyes of the paramilitary, they might face a stiffer challenge which they are unable to comprehend. Their city-sojourn would definitely be for a temporary span because to contemplate a longdrawn-out urban insurgency is surely not on the cards in the foreseeable future.

According to the Brazilian urban guerrilla strategist Carlos Marighella: “The urban guerrilla must possess initiative, mobility and flexibility, as well as versatility and a command of any situation.” He continues: “The urban guerrilla has to be a good walker, to be able to stand up against fatigue, hunger, rain or heat.”

In this theoretical backdrop, it is clearly understandable that septuagenarian CPI (Maoist) leaders, with their concomitant oldage infirmities, hardly possess the physical wherewithal to wage an urban insurgency.

Furthermore, as Marighella opines that “the urban guerrilla must know how to live among the people, and he must be careful not to appear strange and different from www.geopolitics.in

IF “GERONIMOTYPE” ACTIONS SUCCEED AGAINST NAXALS, THEN IT MAY HAVE STRATEGIC RESULTS ordinary city life”, it implies that characters living in dense jungles for a substantial period of their lives shall hardly be able to mingle with the city proletariat, let alone the bourgeoisie.

Osama’s survival for a decent period in the urban area does not mean that such a situation could be replicated for the Indian Maoist leaders. Unlike the Americans, the Indian security forces would not have to deal with a hostile population or, for that matter, an apathetic intelligence network. Moreover, the intelligence spread of the police in the cities is comparatively stronger than that in the rural areas where the populace might not always be friendly to the counter-insurgents.

While Ganapathy can always cite the example of the nonagenarian ultra Niranjan Bose’s “revolutionary zeal” to dislodge any arguments against ‘old age’ and ‘seniority’ plaguing their organisation, the fact of the

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matter remains that the top leadership of the CPI (Maoist) is under threat by the state forces. It could be a decisive turn-around for the Union Home Ministry in curbing the ‘single biggest security threat’ to the country if the two-pronged attack against the left-wing ultras be carried out. Elimination and assassination of the top leadership with surgical precision may be effectively compounded with a tribal-friendly CI campaign in the countryside.

The challenge is surely embedded for the police in the cities, as it becomes cumbrous to locate a suspect amongst a sea of population and in an array of criminal elements.

Moreover, if the suspect acts in an innocuous fashion and hardly accesses technology, it becomes doubly problematic. However, there are some rules in a city, viz. new tenants need to furnish their identity cards and flat or mess owners are generally expected to inform the local police stations regarding any new entrant. Hence, a proper liaison of the anti-Maoist STF with the provincial investigation departments and through this channel with the local police may unearth any possible Maoist ‘suspect’ in the cities. In this case, the Maoists would hardly have an access to the jungles to escape the combing operations. Recent successes by the police in several Indian cities are a pointer to this fact.

The time is ripe for the police to act. With the 71 Brigade of the Indian Army moving into Abujhmaad, the Maoist leadership in India is psychologically cornered. In this security landscape, the police needs to exploit the growing penchant of the Maoist leadership toward cities. And if the police succeeds in these so-called “Geronimo-type” operations within the country, then it may have a number of strategic implications.

First, it would surely push the CPI (Maoist) into the zone of ‘strategic retreat’ rather than its present zone of ‘strategic defence’ as proclaimed by its general gecretary. Second, it would be a decisive step in the direction of obliterating the Maoist insurgency. The ‘root causes’ however still have to be addressed at the local level in order to usher in lasting peace. Third, a series of such successful operations within Indian borders could well act as a psychological force multiplier for the Indian security forces at large. And such a ‘fillip’ may well have its extra-territorial reach.

(The author has a doctorate from the Tata Institute of Fundamental Research and is currently an Assistant Professor at BPPIMT, Kolkata and a consultant at ITS Landshut, Germany & Gais, Italy) July 2011

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DIPLOMACY

HOW TO GET REELECTED

The NATO-campaign in Libya may well be a strategy for the French President Nicolas Sarkozy to score electoral points in his bid for a second term

INDIA AND AFRICA WORK TO BROADEN THEIR CONNECTION

INTEGRATE THE TAMILS INTO THE LANKAN MAINSTREAM, MR RAJAPAKSA

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DIPLOMATIC POUCH ¨¨

g Musical chairs ndia’s Ambassador to Nepal, Rakesh Sood, was scheduled to move from his perch in Nepal as the Deputy National Security Advisor. He is India’s best-known disarmament specialist and the job was a perfect fit for him. Unfortunately, before he could take over, the responsibility has now gone to the present incumbent Vijayalata Reddy. She was appointed in March, superannuated in April and has now got a full two years extension akin to the Foreign Secretary. So what happens to poor Sood? He is moving to Paris to take over from Ranjan Mathai who moves to take over as the Foreign Secretary when Nirupama Rao retires this month-end. But Paris had been reserved for Sujata Singh who was to move there from her position as India’s High Commissioner to Australia. Now that Paris has been reserved for Sood, Sujata Singh is being posted to the United Kingdom as High Commissioner. It only goes to show that in this case of musical chairs the government’s book says only two things — respect seniority and look after everybody. As part of this policy, we may add that Nirupama Rao will move to Washington to replace Meera Shankar as India’s Ambassador to the US.

I

Sujata Singh

Vijayalata Reddy

Rakesh Sood

Oh no, not overseas T ell the babu in the IFS that you are posting him to Timbactoo and he will race to get on the plane. Of course, that only if you tell him that the alternative is a couple of years at Akbar Bhawan — the once-upon-a-time swanky property in

Chanakyapuri that now hosts scores of ministries including the Ministry for Overseas Indians. For starters, MEA believes that it’s their domain that’s been carved out needlessly, duplicating and confusing issues. To top it all, they are being asked to serve there. Not interested, sir. In any case, that’s not the only Ministry where the IFS slot is vacant. Their nominee has still to take charge in Petroleum and Defence. But that’s the way the cookie crumbles.

Krishna, O Krishna! he one bhajan that officials at South Block repeat ad nauseum is Krishna O Krishna. That’s the evolutionary path that their great affection for External Affairs Minister SM Krishna has taken. When he first took over they were surprised. Next came the stage when they were aghast at his propensity to put his foot in his mouth, to be subdued when he need to be stern and to be stern when he needed to be mellow and now finally the stage when they are reconciled to the great sage from Karnataka and sing Krishna O Krishna each time he travels abroad or opens his mouth. The trouble is just as they have learnt to master the bhajan comes the news that the man with the best wig in town may go back to Bengaluru as the chief of the Congress Party in the state.

Considering, though, his huge success as CM and earlier stint as PCC chief, Congressmen are sure to sing ‘Jai Krishna’ rather than Krishna O Krishna. Maybe the MEA too will say Jai Krishna.

Maybe as a benediction to the good Lord for saving them!

T

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SM Krishna

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g MEA’s new abode

all, its main seat of power in South Block where the External Affairs Minister, the Foreign Secretary and top officers of the ministry have offices. The last one seems highly unlikely as no ministry would like to give up its space in South Block, the seat of power in the country, no matter howsoever palatial building that ministry acquires. In any case, South Block houses only two ministries — MEA and Defence — apart from the Prime Minister’s Office. The Defence Ministry, too, has a plethora of old and new buildings scattered all over Delhi but it has not given up its South Block address.

The Jawahar Bhavan is a huge building opposite the magnificent National Archives building. Jawahar Bhawan has a builtup area of 60,000 sq metres, incorporating a host of green features. It would be one of the first government buildings in India with 100 per cent digital input and ready infrastructure for 10 GB data transfer facilities. However, the good news for journalists is that the Jawahar Bhavan will have a sprawling, wellequipped media centre which they will be able to use free of charge.

he MEA’s new abode, Jawahar Bhavan, is coming up fast.

The stately red sandstone building with Dholpur stone work has come up at the intersection of Jan Path and Maulana Azad Road, in New Delhi, at a stone’s throw from South Block. Civil works and furnishings are still going on. Once the building is fully ready, the MEA will be shifting to its new address. The shifting process has already started and Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao is said to be keen that the building is inaugurated before she superannuates in July-end.

Though the XP (External Publicity) Division would be shifting to Jawahar Bhavan, which offers state-of-the-art facilities for media briefings, it remains to be seen what will happen to the Shastri Bhavan accommodation from where the XP Division has been functioning since its inception. There is no clarity yet whether the MEA will be vacating its numerous offices all over Delhi, like the passport offices at Patiala House and Bhikaji Cama Place, the XP and PD (Public Diplomacy) offices at Shastri Bhavan, the economic division at Akbar Bhavan, and above

T

A word about Mathai hat he is a class diplomat, who speaks beautifully, can be tough as nails and as polished as you get them is a given, as far as Ranjan Mathai is concerned. That’s the reason why he has got the top job. Also the fact that the government has decided that it was time to respect the concept of seniority and plump for the man on top of his class.

For some time now, the other name doing the rounds was that of Nalin Surie. Surie has apparently studied under Dr Manmohan Singh, who is believed to be fond of him. And, therefore, the assessment that Surie would march into South Block from his perch at India House in London. Not that Surie doesn’t have the pedigree. He was earlier Ambassador in Beijing and his wife wrote a hugely readable memoir of their days in China. It’s just that by appointing him the PM would have done a RAW on the MEA! Surie has a month to retire and by appointing him the government would give him two years just like Sanjeev Tripathi got two years when his friend and boss KC Verma moved out a month before he was to superannuate. But by sticking to Mathai, the government has clearly decided that it didn’t want to let go of the seniormost officer as of July 31 — the day both Nirupama Rao and Surie retire from service!

T

Ranjan Mathai

www.geopolitics.in

Sticky wicket for Harish

Harish Khare

rime Minister Manmohan Singh’s Media Advisor Harish Khare is learnt to have one foot on the banana peel. The PMO as well as the Congress party are said to be miffed with him over his “poor” handling of the media on Anna Hazare and Baba Ramdev crises. If Khare is eased out of his highprofile job, it will have a direct impact on the MEA. That is because one of the jobs handled by the PM’s Media Advisor is to personally handpick the media outlets for the PM’s foreign trip. The Media Advisor decides the composition of the PM’s media delegation on his foreign trips. The MEA can, and does, suggest names of individuals and organisations to be part of PM’s media delegation for his foreign trips, but the Media Advisor has the power to accept or reject the MEA’s suggestions. It may be recalled that a few weeks ago, the Congress party and the government embarked upon a strategy to woo the media by setting up a Group of Ministers (Media), headed by articulate and media-savvy Union Home Minister P Chidambaram. The GoM (Media) holds media briefings almost daily at Press Information Bureau, Shastri Bhavan. In hindsight, the setting up of GoM (Media) is a vote of no-confidence in Khare’s performance.

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FUNCTIONAL COOPERATION Sharing a common history and future as they do, India and Africa are cooperating in functional terms to enlarge their relationship, writes GURJIT SINGH

I

NDIA and Africa not only share a common history but also share a common future — a future of development and prosperity. We, in India, understand that to realise this common future, we need to work together today. The opportunities that the modern world brings can be fully exploited only by an enlarged India-Africa relationship.

The first India-Africa Summit 2008 (IAFS1) held in New Delhi was the first step in this direction. This summit laid the foundation of a new architecture for a structured engagement, interaction and cooperation between India and Africa. A slew of important initiatives, as prioritised by in consultation with Africa, were announced by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh aimed at strengthening the partnership. As a result, not only were the initiatives relevant to African needs, but it also established that our model of responsive and consultative engagement was mutually beneficial.

The momentum generated during IAFS-I was carried forward to the second Africa India Summit held recently at Addis Ababa.

The two documents, ‘Addis Ababa Declaration’ and the ‘Framework for Enhanced Cooperation’, which were adopted during the summit, reaffirmed the principles of equality, mutual respect, and understanding between our peoples for our mutual benefit.

The PM announced financial assistance of $5.7 billion for a wide range of initiatives.

While IAFS-I focussed on capacity building and human resource development were the focus, AIFS-II announcements brought additional focus on cooperation in science and technology, research and development, social development and capacity building, health, culture, sports, tourism, infrastructure, energy, environment, media and communications and industrial capacity buildwww.geopolitics.in

ing while continuing to focus on the traditional areas of economic and political cooperation.

Capacity-building and human resource development are areas in the forefront of India-Africa cooperation. Indian educational institutions are preferred by an increasing number of African students. Around 15,000 African students are studying in India at any given time. Most of them are self-financed.

Around 500 of them are on Indian scholarships. Besides, the interaction between Indian and African academicians is on the rise. India is in the process of setting-up PanAfrican level institutes like the India-Africa Institute of Foreign Trade, India-Africa Diamond Institute, India Africa Institute of

Information Technology and India-Africa Institute of Educational Planning and Administration to fulfil its commitments of capacity building.

Information, Communication and Technology (ICT), and in particular the visionary pan-African e-Network project, has contributed to the enhancement of our engagement with Africa in the important area of human resource development. To further consolidate the gains made by the Pan African e-Network project, an IndiaAfrica Virtual University has been announced during the AIFS-II for developing Africa-oriented educational programme in priority areas reflecting the priorities of African States to derive greater mileage from

FORGING CLOSER TIES: Gurjit Singh, the then Ambassador of India to Ethiopia, with Ethiopian PM Meles Zenawi, addressing the India Business Forum in Addis Ababa in August 2009

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g AMBASSADOR’S JOURNAL SOWING DEVELOPMENT AND REAPING GOODWILL Indian Government Initiatives: $5-billion credit line promised in May 2011 An additional $700-million for institutions and training programmes

the Indian flagship programme, the panAfrica e-network project.

Apart from the virtual university, 80 new institutions for capacity building including a food-processing cluster, an integrated textile cluster, a centre for medium range weather forecasting, a pan-African university for life and earth sciences, institutes for agriculture and rural development, material testing for highways, English language training, IT, rural development, entrepreneurship development, international training, rural technology parks and others have been announced by the PM during the summit. In addition to these, the PM announced a support of $2 million to AMISOM (African Union Mission in Somalia) to combat piracy.

Our cooperation with Africa is based on a consultative model, which is mutually beneficial. Rather than pushing ahead what we think is good for Africa, we believe in letting them choose their goals and priorities.

Mutual respect and a non-pushy attitude are what differentiates the Indian approach. The resulting partnership, as we have seen, is immensely satisfactory for both partners.

Our pace of implementation is sometimes perceived to be slow. It is appreciated that in a democracy, decisions are based on consensus and widespread internal consultation, approval and adherence to rules. The internal checks and balances built in the Indian system, do slow the pace of decision making but once decisions have been taken, they are firm and well thought out.

The consultative process leads us to be responsive to Africa and creates a further spirit of friendship, both of which are clearly linked to our desire to fulfil the developmental aspirations of African countries. There is a sharing of knowledge and experience for which many African countries often wish to engage with us. India is an attraction to many of our African partners because of its identity as a multi-cultural, multi-ethnic, multi-party pluralistic democracy.

Our parliamentary institutions and procedures, our manner of conducting free and fair elections and our ability to work with the non-governmental sector and civil society in our pursuit of inclusive growth are also important ideas, which some African countries have and want to share with us. This sharing of political experiences is, therefore, www.geopolitics.in

another aspect of our nonIndia Inc. Investments: intrusive support to the Total figures hover around development of democratic $33 billion institutions in our partner coun Key sectors include mintries. ing, energy, infrastructure, In this way a sharing of experience telecommunications and in developing political institutions and steel human resource development is an Among the companies are important aspect of India's model of Sterlite, ONGC, RITES, cooperation with Africa. We see this Essar and the Tata as growing further and becoming a Total bilateral trade was part of our investment in human $46 billion last year capital and sustainable home-grown democratic political systems.

Another important aspect of our model of cooperation is the private sector investment in Africa, which has acquired much greater visibility in the last India to Africa few years. This has been more manifest ever emerging from govsince India liberalised its own economic sysernmental credits and tem in 1991 and in the 21st century, private private sector investment, Indian investment in Africa is giving the relatherefore, form another part of tionship a new diversity and advantage. This our sustainable model of cooperation with type of investment is not government-led or Africa, which has in turn given huge impetus government-subsidised. It seeks commercial to many Indian companies to seek opportuopportunities and Indian investors are nities in Africa. The lines of credit, besides respected because they are reputed to create the asset creation that they provide, also act the maximum employment generation, as a catalytic confidence builder leading to transfer of technology and contribution to many investment decisions. intra-African trade. Entrepreneurship skills, Our three-tiered model of cooperation, for which the Indian private sector has been which we announced at IAFS 2008, provides well known, have been matched with India's us greater flexibility and reach. We have had growing economic prowess leading to susa successful bilateral partnership with most tained investment flows, which are conAfrican countries over decades. We started tributing to the fulfilment of domestic the process of establishing similar partnerdemand in African countries, intra-African ships with some of the regional economic trade as well as enhancing the foreign communities. At the IAFS, we brought in exchange earnings through exports. India's these two tiers of cooperation and added a investment in pharmaceuticals in Africa, for pan-African or continental-tier for enhanced instance, largely fulfils domestic demand cooperation. As a testimony to our three-tier and caters to some intra-African trade. engagement policy, the PM announced Investment in agriculture and horticulture several initiatives at each of the three levels. on the other hand contributes mainly to This introduction of multilateralism into our exports, and investments in manufacturing relations with Africa brought with it a transcontribute both to domestic demand and parency of its decision-making and reflected exports. The success of the India-Africa Proour full partnership and respect for our ject Partnership is heightened as it provides partners. The locations for the proposed greater avenues for African countries to seek institutions and the proposed funds allocainvestment flows from the Indian private tion have been finalised in consultation with sector. the AU(African Union), RECS (Regional These investment flows are matched by a Economic Communities) and bilaterally. commitment made at AIFS 2011 by the Government of India for $5.7 billion over a three(The author is Additional Secretary in the year period. The combined net flow from Ministry of External Affairs)

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DUPLICITOUS AGENDA: Even as it blocks efforts to pass the FMCT, Pakistan has been increasing its nuclear arsenal by leaps and bounds

UNCERTAIN I FMCT

More than 17 years after its provisions were first discussed, progress has been woefully slow on the proposed Fissile Materials Cut-Off Treaty (FMCT). Pakistan and, to a certain extent, China continue to create hurdles in the global negotiations for the multilateral treaty. India, therefore, must proceed cautiously, warns RAJIV NAYAN www.geopolitics.in

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N MAY 2011, the member countries of the Conference on Disarmament (CD) assembled for a few activities, including the closing plenary meet. For the Conference on Disarmament, 2011 continued as a year without much serious work. If the United States is not serious about nuclear disarmament, Pakistan has emerged as the state, which is single-handedly blocking negotiations for Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty (FMCT), which, when implemented, will prohibit the further production of fissile material for nuclear weapons or other explosive devices. Currently, the Conference on Disarmament has 65 member countries, which have organised themselves into different groups. The CD takes a consensus-based decision, therefore, an opposition of a single country may halt July 2011

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g DIPLOMACY any movement. This is apparently making the big powers like the United States and the United Kingdom to work out a FMCT outside the framework of the Conference on Disarmament.

Why is Pakistan opposing FMCT negotiations? Over and above other reasons articulated in previous years, Pakistan had an additional excuse this time. On earlier occasions, Pakistan had stated that the 2008 India-specific exemptions given by the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) had adversely affected the strategic balance in its neighbourhood.

Though it did not mention India this year, the language and its earlier explicit references to India leave no doubt about what it wants to convey. Referring to South Asia’s strategic environment and to a non-NPT member, Pakistan said: “It cannot agree to negotiations on an FMCT in the CD owing to the discriminatory waiver provided by the NSG to our neighbour for nuclear cooperation by several major powers, as this arrangement will further accentuate the asymmetry in fissile materials stockpiles in the region, to the detriment of Pakistan’s security interests.”

This time, Pakistan’s objection was that India’s membership of the four multilateral export control regimes, with the support of the US and other countries, would destabilise the region. In November 2010, the US supported India’s candidature for membership of the NSG, the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), the Australia Group (an informal forum of countries, which, through the harmonisation of export controls, seeks to ensure that exports do not contribute to the development of chemical or biological weapons) and the Wassenaar Arrangement (a multilateral export control regime that promotes transparency and greater responsibility in transfers of conventional arms and dual-use goods and technologies, thus preventing destabilising accumulations). Later, France also endorsed the US move. It was followed by Russian support for the membership of those régimes of which Russia is a member — Russia is not a member of the Australia Group. Many more countries are expected to support India’s candidature, given its rising global status. Pakistan’s statement in the CD showed its resentment regarding the likely modification of criteria to accommodate India in the NSG and the Wassenaar Arrangement.

It is necessary to examine the objections raised by Pakistan regarding the 2008 Indiaspecific waiver in the NSG. Is it really going to allow India to accumulate so much fissile material that the region around Pakistan would be destabilised? Would the exemption enhance the fissile production capabilities of www.geopolitics.in

STRATEGIC HOLDUP: Pakistan has single-handedly blocked negotiations for the FMCT, which would prohibit production of fissile material for nuclear weapons India? Actually, such propaganda may well serve as an excuse for Pakistan to increase its own fissile material production. In the past, some Pakistani diplomats misled the world by saying that India’s eight unsafeguarded reactors could comfortably produce 1400 kilogramme of weapons-grade plutonium — sufficient for around 280 nuclear weapons a year —if run for that purpose, or even more if totally dedicated to fissile material production purposes.

True, there are eight reactors in the strategic category. The categorisation of these and other fast-breeder reactors outside the civil category should not imply that India would go in for unlimited and unnecessary fissile material production. These reactors are not going to produce fissile materials round the clock.

India’s nuclear doctrine is one of credible minimum deterrence, meaning India will not needlessly hoard nuclear weapons and fissile materials. Moreover, a new nuclear weapon country like India has the benefit of learning from the Cold War experience of nuclear weapons accumulation by the two super powers. The unnecessary accumulation of nuclear weapons created the problem of disposal— not only of nuclear weapons through arms control—but also of excess fissile materials.

Even if we accept the logic that the reactors outside the civil category may be used to produce fissile materials, under the Indo-US nuclear deal, India has increased its number of power reactors in the civil category from 6 to 14. Therefore, the increase in the number of power reactors in the civil category and the

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decrease of power reactors outside it should indicate that Indian fissile material production may be decreased, not increased. Any logical analysis would underscore this. Of course, propaganda has its own logic!

This leads to the question: If India is not interested in unnecessary production of fissile materials, why is it retaining eight reactors in the strategic category? The answer is simple: to deal with an uncertain strategic environment. There are some declared NPT and nonNPT nuclear weapon countries, which have not made their fissile material stockpiles public. The nuclear weapon declarations of these countries are also uncertain and lack credibility. At the same time, there are undeclared and potential nuclear weapon countries, which are likely to further complicate the strategic environment in the future.

The new Pakistani argument against FMCT negotiations in the CD, namely, that the Indian membership of the multilateral export controls regimes may adversely affect regional stability is superficial. The membership of the regimes has nothing to do with regional stability; in fact, it is about enabling India to play a role in promoting international peace and stability by participating in the global strategic trade management. Pakistan’s obsession with projecting itself as a competitor to India is frequently leading it to make ridiculous and incomprehensible moves like the one in the CD. Instead, it may do well to imitate India’s responsible nuclear behaviour. It does not realise that the proliferation network and terrorism may not be able to sustain the PakJuly 2011

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ON A DESTRUCTIVE PATH: As mines close or are lost in the jihadi hinterland, Pakistan has reopened its old plutonium route for fissile material istani state for long. Pakistan needs to change.

What does Pakistan really want to do by raising the bogus arguments to stall negotiations? First and the most obvious answer is that Pakistan wants to accumulate fissile materials. It wants to defy global trends of the small nuclear weapons stockpile. Now it is a wellknown fact that its Kahuta plant is facing problems in producing enriched uranium for Pakistan’s nuclear weapons. If it has not completely halted the production, at least, it has drastically scaled down the amount of production. The Golara plant is not considered an enrichment plant, as projected by Pakistanis.

Pakistan has opened its old plutonium route, which was closed for years. The international institutions are reporting that it has plan for at least four power plants and three reprocessing plants at the Khushab complex.

The first Khushab reactor has the capacity of 40 MW. The London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, in its analysis, finds that the second reactor at Khushab has been completed, and it is passing through the trial phase. Based on satellite imagery indicating emission of vapour from the second reactor, the International Institute for Strategic Studies report concludes that the plant is at least at some stage of initial operation.

Initially, it judged that the second reactor had the capacity of 1000MW, but later, it revised its initial estimate. It also judges that the third reactor is also progressing very fast, and soon may be completed. The report about the fourth reactor came in February 2011. This looks identical to the third reactor.

The most important reason for the revival of www.geopolitics.in

the plutonium route is the continuing shortage of uranium in general and the bombgrade enriched uranium in particular. The mine of Dera Ghazi Khan has been closed down and other uranium mines are in the jihadi areas.

The second answer to the blocking of a FMCT could be the Chinese interest. Till a few years ago, China was also blocking negotiations for an FMCT. It linked it to weaponisation and militarisation of space.

Later, it withdrew its objections and sent an impression of an important stakeholder of the system. It is difficult to say that China was holding negotiations to save space and external environment or save its fissile materials production option. It needs to remember that China is the only country among the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty-defined Nuclear Weapons States which has not declared a moratorium on fissile material production.

In India, some may argue that China does not need fissile materials; it has produced enough bomb-grade fissile materials over decades. However, this line of thinking has not answered the ambiguity in the Chinese position on fissile material production. Quite possible, China is studying the new global strategic environment. On the one hand, Russia and the US, which together possess 95 per cent of nuclear weapons of the world, are agreeing to drastically reduce their strategic nuclear arsenals, on the other hand, new nuclear actors are emerging on the global, especially Asian scene. China may take its decision after a few years. The current uncertainty may not find the Chinese support for FMCT.

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Pakistan is holding the interim phase for it by blocking FMCT negotiations.

What is an option for India? India may go for negotiations but without hastening the process. Unjustified adjustments to conclude an FMCT would create more complications than solutions. In a set-up that works on the principle of consensus, it is necessary that negotiating parties first understand each other’s interests, and make sure that a solution satisfies all. All have to merge their value systems into one to resolve the issue. India may state that it would not support an FMCT that would compromise its core national and, more importantly, substantive interests explained in terms of core security interests, but it should develop an understanding of other countries and groups because no country sacrifices its substantive interests related to focal issues under negotiation. The first task would be to minimise the differences, which abound in the FMCT negotiations.

On the very definition of fissile materials, the president of the CD in his report mentions that there are at least four schools of thought: the US proposal, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) definition, the Russian proposal, and the Swiss proposal or understanding. It would not be easy to ask different schools to simply abandon their positions on definition and support another position. If everything that is potentially useful for making fissile material is included in the definition, the very phrase fissile material would lose its meaning. This may lead to further problems of control. It may be noted that one of the most contentious parts of any definition will include the question whether the proposed FMCT will legitimise the member countries’ past holdings (something that India would like) and deal only with future production.

On definition of fissile materials, the international community already has some guidance.

The IAEA has some workable definitions for nuclear materials, which may work as the starting point for discussions for the definition of fissile materials for an FMCT. Until and unless the scientific community achieves some breakthrough, which may substantially affect the understanding of fissile materials that are directly relevant for nuclear weapons, it does not appear that there will be any problem in arriving at a definition of fissile materials. In the long run, a commonly agreed definition of fissile material would lead to stability of the regime for fissile material control.

(The author is a Senior Research Associate at Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses) July 2011

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SRI LANKA: COPING WITH THE CONQUEST In the absence of an effective opposition and with a Sinhala chauvinist like President Mahinda Rajapaksa at the helm of affairs, the Sri Lankan peace-process is bound to be slow.

Unfortunately, India seems to have lost its traditional leverage in Sri Lanka to ensure that the Tamils get justice in that country, argues SD MUNI www.geopolitics.in

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TURNING A DEAF EAR: Without any real internal pressure President Rajapaksa (right, seen here in discussion with B Lynn Pascoe, UN Under-Secretary General for Political Affairs) is not in any hurry to move towards the resolution of the Tamil issue.

T

HE tone and tenure of discussions that India’s strategic troika, National Security Advisor, Foreign Secretary and Defence Secretary had with Sri Lankan authorities and political groups in Colombo in June 2011 indicate that all is not well with India-Sri Lanka relations. Indian anxieties emanate essentially from the consequences of delay in the resolution of the Tamil ethnic issue. The elimination of LTTE-led insurgency in May 2009 offered a historic opportunity to Sri Lanka’s President Mahinda Rajapaksa to resolve the ethnic issue forever. The Rajapaksa regime seems thus far to have shied away from availing of this opportunity. Only two Sinhala leaders, the father- daughter duo of SWRD BanJuly 2011

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daranaike (1956-59) and Chandrika Kumaratunga (1995-2005), genuinely tried to approach the Tamil issue in a secular context but failed.

Mahinda Rajapaksa, from his early days of political activism, seldom concealed his proclivities for Sinhala nationalism. He not only sympathised with the Janatha Vimukti Peramuna’s (JVP) ideological ramblings of Sinhala chauvinism during the 1980s but also mobilised Sinhala constituencies in 2004 to grab the office of Prime Minister from the ablest Tamil politician Laksman Kadirgamar whom the then president Chandrika Kumaratunga was planning to appoint.

President Rajapaksa's military campaign against the LTTE was strongly driven by Sinhala sentiment and supported by the JVP. His brother and Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa and his then army Chief Gen. Fonseka had clearly warned the Tamil community that they could live in Sri Lanka only as second -class citizens.

CONSOLIDATION OF POWER The Rajapaksa regime, rather than accommodating legitimate Tamil aspirations, moved swiftly to consolidate its grip over state power by playing upon sectarian Sinhala nationalism. Rajapaksa hastened his presidential election by a year, to November 2009, to cash in on the ‘triumph’ against the LTTE. Though pitted against the combined opposition candidate and former army Chief Gen. Sarath Fonseka, the hero of the Sri Lankan forces to victory, President Rajapaksa established that it was he who owned the real victory and not the soldiers. This was followed by the parliamentary elections in April 2010, where his coalition secured a near 2/3rd majority (made up by engineering defections later). The opposition, led by the United National Party (UNP) and the Jathiya Vimukti Peramuna (JVP), suffered serious reverses. This enabled the ruling alliance to push through the 18th constitutional amendment that removed the two-term bar on the President’s reelection. The 18th amendment also brought firmer presidential control over parliament. Now, all the key areas of governance are in the hands of the President and his family members. While his elder brother Chamal Rajapaksa is the Speaker of the new parliament, his younger brothers, Gotabaya Rajapaksa and Basil Rajapaksa, respectively hold defence and economic development portfolios.

To perpetuate his hold over power, he has put the opposition parties in disarray, luring many of their parliamentarians towards his side. The UNP is suffering on its own as a www.geopolitics.in

result of Ranil Wikramasinghe’s unimaginative and flawed leadership. The JVP has lost its Sinhala platform, being usurped by the President himself. Rajapaksa, fearing any erosion of his Sinhala support base, is extremely cautious in approaching the Tamil issue in any constructive manner. The Tamil parties, which are expected to pressure the government on this issue, are weak and fragmented. Some of the non-LTTE Tamil parties like the Eelam People’s Democratic Party (EPDP) of Duglous Devananda, are already aligned with the President, sharing power. Other Tamil groups, the Tamil United Liberation Front (TULF), the Eelam People's Revolutionary Liberation Front (EPRLF) and People's Liberation Organisation for Tamil Eelam (PLOTE) have lost much of their popular support and organisation. The Tamil National Alliance, which earlier enjoyed LTTE's support, has reconciled with the elimination of the LTTE. It has established itself as credible representatives of Tamils by winning 14 parliamentary seats in the north and east and emerging as the third largest group in the 2010 elections. The government is talking to it but there is no progress on critical issues.

Political consolidation of the Rajapaksa regime has been considerably buttressed by two other factors: ruthless suppression of dissent and impressive economic performance.

Suppression of dissent started in the name of fighting the LTTE and resulted in several disappearances of prominent print and electronic media journalists. This suppression persists even in post-conflict Sri Lanka. Economically, Sri Lanka has performed impressively in 2010.

It registered 8 per cent growth and its per capita income has crossed $ 2000 mark. The World Bank, in June 2011, has upgraded Sri Lanka into a middle-income country. The Sri Lankan economy has been performing well even during the conflict years as its main sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing and tourism, being located outside the northeastern region, were not adversely affected by the ethnic war.

But the post-conflict opening-up of north and east for vigorous economic activity and recovering lost opportunity will encourage investments and economic dynamism. Sri Lanka has now targeted its per capita income at $ 4000 by 2016 and wants to build itself up as knowledge, commercial and naval hub to take advantage of its strategic location in the Indian Ocean.

Sitting pretty on his dome of personal power and state control, President Rajapaksa has no internal pressure to seriously move towards the resolution of the Tamil issue.

Uncertainty hangs over the prospects of elec-

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LIVING ON HANDOUTS: There cannot be any lasting peace until steps are taken to reintegrate Tamils into the mainstream tions for the Northern Provincial Council. The question of a political and lasting solution of the Tamil issue is being dodged in different ways. Prior to the elimination of the LTTE, the President appointed an All Party Representative Committee (APRC) to evolve a package.

After four years and 128 meetings, the APRC's efforts remain unattended, except perhaps, the new language policy introducing English as a link between the Tamils and the Sinhalese.

In June 2011, the President has asked for the appointment of a select parliamentary committee to find a political solution of the Tamil rights and devolution of power. The state responses to the issues raised by the TNA and other Tamil groups on the conditions of the IDPs, release of post-conflict detainees, demilitarisation of northern areas and the return of land under the occupation of pre-conflict 'High Security Zones' are more in words than in action. The TNA's demand for a joint visit with government representatives to the IDP camps to assess conditions and improve them still remains to materialise. There is no softening on the grant of land and police powers to the provincial administration in the north and the east. The 13th Amendment of the constitution has not been implemented despite repeated requests by the Tamil groups and the Government of India. The standard response of the Rajapaksa regime is that it will have a solution acceptable to ‘all the communities’ that will go beyond the 13th Amendment.

There is a strong resistance to the 13th Amendment among the Sinhala nationalists as it is seen to have been forced by India in the context of the Indo-Sri Lanka Agreement of July 1987. The developments in the eastern July 2011

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province have altered the ground reality to make the 13th Amendment irrelevant and there are fears in some quarters that Colombo may be working on a demographic solution, by settling Sinhalese in Tamil areas, to the ethnic problem.

INTERNATIONAL PRESSURES The only pressure on the Rajapaksa regime on the Tamil issue is from a section of the international community, the UN and the West. This pressure has mounted on the question of “war crimes” as the Sri Lankan regime is charged, along with the LTTE, with the killings of tens of thousands of innocent civilians during the last phase of war against the LTTE. The Sri Lankan army is also held responsible for killing the surrendered LTTE cadres and leadership.

These charges have been systematically detailed by the UN Secretary General’s Advisory Panel appointed for this purpose. UK’s Channel-4 TV has produced visual evidence through a film called Sri Lanka’s Killing Fields telecast on June 19 this year that shows gruesome killings by the Sri Lankan army of unarmed civilians and blindfolded, naked LTTE cadres. This has sparked a huge internal and international debate about Rajapaksa regime’s ‘war crimes’. In the face of mounting evidence and intensive debate, the regime can no longer remain in its nationalistic and assertive denial mode on the question of ‘war crimes’ and humanitarian accountability that it has been doing since 2009. Colombo has at long last agreed to get these charges examined at least by the officially appointed “Lessons Learnt and Reconciliation Commission”.

The Western concerns for humanitarian accountability on Sri Lanka are driven by their ideological preferences and diaspora pressures. Tamil diaspora groups in US, UK, Canada, Australia and some of the European counwww.geopolitics.in

tries like Norway are well organised and assertive. A recently-elected Canadian parliamentarian is a young Tamil woman who promises to bring Sri Lanka to account for its humanitarian excesses during the last phase of the anti-LTTE war. The European Union had earlier withdrawn tariff preferences for Sri Lankan garments as a punishment for lack of humanitarian accountability. The West is aware of the substance in humanitarian violation charged against Sri Lanka as the quiet diplomacy of the US, UK and Norway, prompted by the Tamil diaspora groups to ensure safety for the surrendering LTTE cadres and leadership was not heeded by Colombo in May 2009.

To counter the Western pressures, the Rajapaksa regime is deftly mobilising support from Russia and China. Days after Colombo’s victory in the war against the LTTE in May 2009, Russia, China and India helped Sri Lanka defeat in the UN Human Rights Council, Geneva, a Western move to fix the accountability of human rights abuse during the war on Sri Lanka. Before that, China and Russia had extended full cooperation including, supply of arms, to Sri Lanka in its fight against the LTTE. Both the Russian and the Chinese Presidents assured President Rajapaksa all support for Sri Lanka’s independence and sovereignty at St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in June 2011.

CONSTRAINTS AND CONCERNS Short of supplying lethal arms, India supported the Rajapaksa regime in its war against the LTTE, but did not want that war to be won through human rights violations and innocent killings of the Tamils. The manner in which the war was brought to a close has seriously eroded India's position and future role in Sri Lanka. While in the Tamil perception, India has proved to be an unreliable supporter, for the Sinhalese, India continues to remain a patron of the Tamils. The rise of sectarian Sinhala nationalism (nursed and fed by the tales of invasions from South India), which has taken a bold leap forward under Rajapaksa’s leadership in the post-conflict context, is inherently incompatible with India’s interests and stakes in Sri Lanka. President Rajapaksa’s reliance on Chinese and Pakistani arms in the absence of full military support from India vitiated India’s regional security parameters in Sri Lanka, that India had stoutly preserved during the 1980s and 1990s. Hambantota port development project supported by China to the tune of 85 per cent as it stands today is a commercial proposition, but there is no guarantee that it will not acquire naval security frills.

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Deep-pocketed China is also expanding its economic presence in the strategically-placed island including oil exploration in India’s sensitive Gulf of Mannar. All this has now given a disconcerting long-time option to Colombo to dictate terms to India, especially in view of China’s rising capabilities and expanding role in the Indian Ocean and South Asia.

India’s capacity to nudge Colombo on the Tamil issue is now severely constrained. The Tamil political groups in Sri Lanka are weak and fragmented. India has neither tried seriously nor succeeded to any meaningful extent, in bringing the Tamil groups on one platform to work for Tamil interests. India’s growing economic stakes, developed through expanding trade and investments, do not permit India to do anything that offends Sinhala nationalism, lest it retaliates in a manner far worse than during 1988-89. No wonder, India has gradually climbed down on its demand of implementing the 13th Amendment. India has heavily invested in the rehabilitation and reconstruction of war-torn region, and most of its developmental activity is in Tamil areas.

This surely will help India regain the confidence of the Tamil community, but at the cost of perpetuating trust deficit with Sri Lanka’s majority community. No wonder, India’s efforts for upgrading the Free Trade Agreement into a Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA) are not bearing fruit because of resistance from powerful Sinhala stakeholders.

Some analysts argue that India's priorities in strategic Indian Ocean neighbour are growing economic stakes and security interests. In both these areas Rajapaksa regime’s responses to Indian concerns are taken as manageable.

The ethnic question is only next in priority and India should not get unduly exercised on the delay in its resolution. Such a perspective, however, would be contrary to the lessons of history. The Tamil issue if allowed to linger unresolved for a long time can disturb Sri Lanka’s hard-found internal stability and adversely impinge India’s security and economic interests.

The present state of the Tamil Nadu factor on the Sri Lankan question can also go out of New Delhi’s hands as events like Jayalalithaa’s Assembly resolutions seeking sanctions on Sri Lanka and reversal of the 1974-Kachchativu agreement, and the alerts sounded by Tamil Nadu’s Tamil nationalist groups and leaders like Vaiko prove.

(The writer is a Visiting Research Professor at the Institute of South Asian Studies, Singapore) July 2011

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DIPLOMACY

AN AFRICAN ELECTORAL CAMPAIGN? The Libyan war is proving to be a good window for the French armament industry to display its products to potential buyers. It has also provided a great opportunity for President Nicolas Sarkozy to score political points in his re-election campaign, writes CLAUDE ARPI

S

ince the beginning of the year, world events have taken an unexpected turn. Nobody had ever imagined popular revolutions in the Arab world in the past. Who could have expected that Presidents Ben Ali and Mubarak would be thrown out by ‘common men’ a year ago?

Events went so fast that the French government was caught on the wrong foot.

The Minister of Foreign Affairs, Alliot-Marie, went holidaying to Tunisia, enjoying the hospitality from a close associate of President Ben Ali, who till then was a great friend of France. A big mistake. Alliot-Marie had eventually to resign for not having sensed the change of wind, but for President Sarkozy the episode was a serious reminder that the presidential elections were barely 14 months away.

For many reasons, his popularity had reached a historical low with a large majority of the French disapproving of his policies and Marie Le Pen, the extreme right candidate, doing better than him in the surveys for the 2012 Presidential elections. This partly explains why Sarkozy has been in such a belligerent mood in recent times.

The grim situation in Ivory Coast, where in December 2010, the outgoing President Laurent Gbagbo lost the elections against his opponent Alassane Ouattara but refused www.geopolitics.in

to vacate his seat, was an ideal occasion for Sarkozy to show La Grandeur (greatness) of France (and his own).

The Libyan ‘revolution’ against a psychopathic tyrant was another.

Let us consider Ivory Coast first.

When the situation started to degenerate into a bloodbath in Abidjan, Sarkozy considered it politically safe to intervene, particularly after the UN Security Council adopted Resolution 1975 authorising the use of force to get Gbagbo out of the way. The valid excuse was that France had thousands of nationals stuck between the two rival camps and their lives were in danger; further, France and Ivory Coast had military agreements ‘permitting’ Paris to intervene when required and if requested by the ‘legitimate’ local government.

With Ban-Ki-moon personally writing to the French President on April 3 to authorise French Force Unicorn to ‘jointly conduct operations with the UNOCI (UN Operations in Ivory Coast’) and arrest Gbagbo, it became an ‘easy’ affair.

A French defence expert wrote: “If you take the example of a bakers’ shop, the French had the recipe, they prepared the cake, baked it and Ouattara’s troops were left to put the cherry (arrest Gbagbo) and eat the cake.”

In a way, it was a victory for Sarkozy who showed that he was a great defender of ‘democracy’ and ‘human rights’. He could also argue that ‘his’ intervention could be a precedent for other African nations, which go to the polls in 2011. The UN-led operations in Abidjan could act as a deterrent for leaders who may be tempted to refuse to acknowledge election results.

Merci Sarko! Democracy is safe (and the French nationals can continue to live in peace in Abidjan and elsewhere in the

CLEVER SUBTERFUGE: The Libyan War is providing a great opportunity for President Nicolas Sarkozy to score political points in his re-election campaign

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g DIPLOMACY country — it is said that a panicked Indian Ambassador was also ‘saved’ by the French commandos).

In Libya, the situation is more complicated and the stakes are higher.

Let us remember that in 2007, Gaddafi planted his tent not far from the Elysees Presidential Palace; the Libyan leader was said to be ‘a bastion of secularism in the Arab world’ and ‘a great friend of France’.

When Rama Yade, the pretty junior minister of Foreign Affairs said that “tyrants were wiping their bloodied boots on the doormats of France”, she was severely reprimanded by the Presidency and eventually dismissed. Her popularity improved, while Sarkozy’s plummeted. The President probably had this in mind (as well as the AlliotMarie Tunisian blunder) when he decided to push for a UN resolution on Libya. If the French President’s advisors thought it would be easy, they were wrong.

On March 17, 2011, the United Nations Security Council agreed to Resolution 1973 introduced by France and UK. It was passed by a 10-0 margin and five abstentions (the BRICS nations, minus South Africa and Germany abstained). Resolution 1973 sanctioned the immediate establishment of a ceasefire asking for a complete end to violence and all attacks against and abuse of civilians; imposed a no-fly zone over

Libya; authorised all necessary means to protect civilians and civilian-populated areas, except for a ‘foreign occupation force’; strengthened the arms embargo by allowing for forcible inspections of ships and planes, etc.

Already many doubted that it would be easy to dislodge Gaddafi and some warned that the new coalition could get bogged down in a new Iraq or Afghanistan-like War. But Sarkozy and Cameron were too impatient in wanting to take revenge on the ‘tyrant’.

Sarkozy was in so much of a hurry that military actions are said to have informally started two days before the UN Resolution when a French plane opened fire and destroyed an armed vehicle on Libyan soil. During the following days, French jets destroyed five tanks belonging to the Tripoli regime. To stop Gaddafi seemed a child’s game.

Unfortunately for the Allies, the Libyan troops faithful to the Colonel adapted remarkably well and soon after the destruction of their main air-defences, they began to use guerilla warfare with ordinary vehicles indiscernible by the NATO satellites. While the pro-Gaddafi troops have a leader and a military tactic, it is often not the case for the insurgents. Six weeks after the first strikes, Gaddafi is still around.

Despite the grand show and tall claims of Bernard-Henri Levy (BHL), the self-styled

French philosopher-turned-war-advisor of Sarkozy, the ‘rebels’ are not a homogenous group and do not represent all the Libyans.

A French defence expert wrote on his blog: “We, French have too much contempt for our enemies. Did we expect that they will just run away after the first passage of a fighter plane in the sky?”

The other difficulty is that the coalition is extremely fragile, with the United States having partly abandoned the boat and others increasingly reluctant to go after Gaddafi.

Sarkozy, the Chef de guerre (with BHL as his war lieutenant), is lonely these days; though the British and the Italians are still on board, other coalition members play a minor role while nations (such as the BRICS) are dead against any intervention (though the Indian PM was more nuanced in his approach, he told his BRICS’ colleagues that recent events in the Arab world ‘represented a shift of power to the ordinary citizen’).

MILITARY OPERATIONS In this nightmarish situation, there is a positive aspect for Paris. The Rafale has done quite well, somehow better than the Eurofighter Typhoon, now its sole rival in the 126 MMRCA tender of the Indian Air Force (IAF). The Eurofighters often remained on their bases; they were not ‘polyvalent’ enough according to some French defence sources (being more a combat aircraft than a ‘bomber’).

Many French blogs (obviously sometimes biased) reported the relatively modest performance of the Typhoon (“Where is the long-awaited Typhoon? More of a ghost!”).

The Mail Online gives another version: “The Typhoon is a world-class fighter and the Tornado a world-class bomber but I don’t want to go into details of whether weapons were expended”, said a pilot, adding: “Ten Typhoons and four Tornadoes are a formidable force mix that we are very happy with.”

The British paper, however, admitted that the Eurofighter in its current version “is mainly deployed as a fighter and could use its air-to-air missile systems to bring down any Libyan aircraft defying the no-fly zone”.

On April 16, information appeared in a well-known French defence blog affirming that a Eurofighter fired a bomb ... four years after the Rafale…a month after the beginning of the operations. It continued: “A

RAINING DEVASTATION: Military intervention by the West is the only reason that rebels have been able to sustain their campaign

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g DIPLOMACY Typhoon (Eurofighter) of the Royal Air Force fired an air-surface weapon for the first time. According to the RAF, the aircraft dropped a guided bomb Paveway II laser destroying two tanks T-72 near Misrata. The plane was accompanied by Tornado GR4 and it is unclear which plane lighted the target. Originally designed as a pure interceptor, the Typhoon has a problem to become a multipurpose plane; its air-surface capacity will not be effective before 2015. Very few pilots are trained for its missions: just 8, according to a recent report by the NAO, the Audit Office in Great Britain.”

Less partisan and more to the point, someone wrote: “The timing of the warlike adventure against Gaddafi is perfect, just a few days before the announcement of a short list for the MMRCA contract.” It did not probably influence the IAF, which had completed its assessment much earlier, but there is no doubt that the outcome of the ‘Libyan war’ will be studied closely in Delhi as curiously both the planes involved in the Libyan operations have been preselected by the IAF for 126 MMRCA, the ‘contract of the century’.

France contributed 33 planes, amongst

them some 20 strike aircraft (8 Rafale Air, 8 Rafale Marine, 4 Mirage 2000-5), while the British provided about the same number, Italy offered 16 and the other coalition partners much less, Belgium (6), Spain (6), The Netherland (7), Norway, Denmark (4), Turkey (7) and Canada (11).

Most of the latter aircraft were used for different purposes and several of them were not seen over the Libyan sky. Nasty tongues even say that the tanker planes flew many more hours than the fighter planes, which cannot simultaneously carry

SARKOZY WAS IN SUCH A HURRY THAT MILITARY ACTION STARTED TWO DAYS BEFORE THE UN RESOLUTION

a large quantity of fuel and heavy bombs.

With the French and the British taking the main lead, one of the main issues was that they could soon run out of bombs. An article in Washington Times (NATO runs short on some munitions in Libya) affirmed: “Less than a month into the Libyan conflict, NATO is running short of precision bombs, highlighting the limitations of Britain, France and other European countries in sustaining even a relatively small military action over an extended period of time, according to senior NATO and US officials.”

This demonstrates the limits of the ability by European nations to conduct a skywar for a prolonged period of time. The problem was summed up by the same newspaper: “European arsenals of laserguided bombs, the NATO weapon of choice in the Libyan campaign, have been quickly depleted, officials said. Although the United States has significant stockpiles, its munitions do not fit on the British and French-made planes that have flown the bulk of the missions.”

These are some of the difficulties that an unprepared operation can face. One of the

PEOPLE POWER: Rebel forces have swelled as large numbers of Libyan Army regulars have defected

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OPPORTUNE INTERVENTION: The war is proving to be a grand showcase for the French armament industry to display its wares reasons given by French people for President Sarkozy’s present unpopularity is his ‘impetuosity’. Libya is a typical case.

Three months after the beginning of the bombing operations, UK and France have decided to use combat helicopters to increase the pressure on Gaddafi’s forces. It can be considered to be acknowledgment of the partial failure of ‘remote’ bombing tactics. The deployment of attack helicopters is certainly a great boost for the morale of the Libyan opposition, especially after NATO announced that its mission would be extended for three more months.

The British Apache attack helicopters and the French Gazelles can target military vehicles, surveillance equipment or government troops in a more flexible way. But flying at lower altitude (compared to the combat planes), the helicopters are unfortunately at risk of being shot down. The UK Foreign Secretary William Hague justified the use of helicopters: “I believe now the momentum is shifting increasingly against the Gaddafi regime.”

Will it be sufficient to ‘win the war’?

SOME CONCLUSIONS

There is no doubt that Gaddafi is a tyrant. Rumors have recently surfaced in the United Nations Security Council that he was distributing Viagra pills to his troops to be better able to rape ‘dissidents’ woman …and children. It is one www.geopolitics.in

of the many human rights violations denounced by the UN on which most of the world’s nations agree. The problem is that most Western democracies have been ‘engaging’ Gaddafi for years, before he suddenly became a ‘villain’. Could not the world see his true character earlier?

And how come India did not know that one of his sons was campaigning in Pakistani-occupied Kashmir to ‘free’ Kashmir from India?

The Libyan situation will probably not end soon. Though he is steadily losing supporters, Gaddafi has still many friends amongst tribal chiefs in Libya and even certain African heads of state who have been ‘sponsored’ by him in the past.

The current war, with no end in view, shows the limit of an ‘interventionist’ policy such as the one advocated by Sarkozy and Cameron. Further, there are plenty of tyrants on the planet. Which one to chose? Should the ‘Western democracies’ also intervene in Syria, in Yemen, in Iran and more importantly in China where the Tibetans are so badly treated?

It is a question which should have been thought about earlier by President Sarkozy and his flamboyant advisor /philosopher.

When one considers that hardly two months after the beginning of the mili-

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tary operations there was already a shortage of munitions on the European side, the limits of a ‘military intervention’ become even more blatant.

Like any war, it is a good window to show off new or old armament/equipment, particularly the capacity of the Rafales and the Eurofighters. France, for example, experimented with new nonexploding bombs, which can destroy a tank by perforations without too much collateral damage.

Who will foot the bill? A few days after the beginning of the operations, French Defence Minister Gérard Longuet told the French Parliament that 11 cruise missiles Scalp-EG were used in Libya.

Each missile, which can be shot at a distance of 400 km from the target, is supposed to cost €850,000 it has a great ‘safety’ advantage as the plane does not need to fly over enemy lines.

The total cost of the first two weeks of engagement was estimated at about €30 million for France alone. Will the French taxpayers have to open their wallets, or will it be ‘refunded’ in oil if the operations are successful? Nobody can give a ready answer.

For President Sarkozy the real issue is: how can he come out of the quagmire without losing face and points in the surveys?

The ‘DSK episode’ (the arrest of Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the IMF boss for alleged sexual abuse in New York) has completely changed the stakes of the 2012 Presidential elections. With DSK as a candidate, Sarkozy had very little chance to return to the Elysée Palace (most of the surveys predicted that he would not make it to the second round), but now with DSK out of the way, Sarkozy will probably be present in the second round against the socialist candidate.

It is where the outcome of the ‘Libyan war’ can have an importance. If the war is still raging and Gaddafi has not stepped down, Sarkozy could be seriously questioned on the wisdom to go to war in the first place.

This explains the induction of the combat helicopters with the risks involved. The Libyan campaign, announced as a short one, cannot become a new Vietnam for the French and British forces and their present leaders.

(The writer is a French-born author, journalist and historian. He has written several articles on Tibet, China, India and Indo-French relations and is also the director of the Tibetan Pavilion of Auroville) July 2011

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EXCERPTS

THE ISLAMIC EMIRATE OF PAKISTAN?

DEADLY EMBRACE: Pakistan, America and the Future of the Global Jihad by Bruce Riedel is a fascinating account of America's relationship with its South Asian ally by a former CIA officer and advisor to four American Presidents who consistently references his own diplomatic experience. Here is an excerpt from this captivating book where Riedel talks hypothetically about the implications of a Jihadist State in Pakistan.

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JIHADIST Pakistan would emerge through some combination of violence and intimidation. The simplest way would be another military coup led by a general who shares the worldview of Zia ul-Haq. A new Zia would move Pakistan toward accommodating the Taliban and al Qaeda instead of fighting them. Are there new Zias in the Pakistan military? Almost certainly yes, and undoubtedly in the army. Supporters clearly exist among former army officers like Hamid Gul, once head of the ISI. It is impossible for an outsider to determine how many officers are sympathetic to the jihadists, as most such individuals probably try hard not to let their views be known. What is evident is that many army recruits are from the same towns and villages in the Punjab as militant groups like Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT). Former ambassador to Pakistan Bill Milam has noted that “the pool of young men the army recruits, Punjabi or Pashtun, are increasingly from the same socio/economic pool as the jihadi organizations recruit from. Jawans looking through their gun sights at their brothers or cousins may be more reluctant to shoot than at present.”

Officers with the most power and influence are the corps commanders, especially those in the key Punjab region. Some of them may well have connections with LeT. As recently as September 2009, the organizawww.geopolitics.in

tion's founder and current Suppose, for purposes of leader, Hafez Saeed, was the analysis, that a new Zia featured guest at an iftar comes to power. The current (evening meal when Muscivilian government would be lims break the fast during swept out of office, and the Ramadan) hosted by a corps army would accommodate commander in Rawalpindi. the new Islamist leadership.

A jihadist state could also A new government might be emerge following an insurcomposed of representatives gent victory, but that would of the Pakistani Taliban be much more difficult to movement, LeT, and possibly achieve. The Taliban would the Islamist political parties need to reach out from the that have contested power in Pashtun tribal areas west of the past, such as the Jamaatthe Indus and gain signifii-Islam. It might draw some cantly more support in the support from breakaway elePunjabi heartland. Actually, ments of the two mainstream Author: Bruce Riedel there is good evidence this is political parties, the Pakistan Harper Collins Publishers happening. A coalescence of Muslim League (PML) and Pages:180, Price:`499 Islamist groups like the PakPakistan Peoples Party (PPP), Year of Publication: 2011 istani Taliban and Lashkar-ehoping to “moderate” the Tayyiba also seems to be movement and to “tame” the developing, although differences remain.

Taliban.

Taliban leaders might tap into the deep However it came about, a new Islamic anger among landless peasants in the PunEmirate of Pakistan would move to purge the jab and Sindh to mobilize a mass movement armed forces of potential countercoup plotsimilar, in some respects, to that which topters. It might also set up a new military force pled the shah of Iran in 1978. I. A. Rehman, to act as a counterweight to the regular army, director of the Human Rights Commission of as the Revolutionary Guards do in Iran. The Pakistan, has noted that “the Taliban have ISI would undergo special cleansing to elimpeople across Punjab and these terrorists are inate threats to the regime. not fighting for small stakes. They are fightA Pakistani emirate would welcome ing to capture Pakistan, including Punjab.”

Osama bin Laden and Ayman Zawahiri from

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their hiding places of the past decade, although they would presumably keep a low profile to avoid being attacked by outside security services. Free of any significant constraints on their activities from the Pakistani authorities, al Qaeda, LeT, and a host of other terrorist groups would have much more room to operate, particularly if they have access to Pakistan's embassies from which to stage terrorist operations abroad.

As it purged the army of any dissident voices, the new regime would also take control of the nuclear arsenal. In response, many outside Pakistan would probably call on America to “secure� Pakistan's nuclear weapons, but since no outsider knows where most of them are located, such efforts would be in vain and pose a hollow threat to the regime. Even if force were used to capture some of the weapons, the emirate would retain most of its arsenal as well as the capacity to build more. It certainly would make their production an even higher priority than it already is.

At the same time, the Islamists would face significant internal opposition. Some in the officer corps would undoubtedly resist and perhaps try to stage a countercoup. The fifth of Pakistanis who are Shia would be extremely uneasy with a Sunni militant regime as well, and communal violence would probably intensify, causing turbulence in Islamabad's ties with Tehran. The muhajir Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) in the Sindh's large cities-especially Pakistan's largest, Karachi-would probably resist and have to be defeated by force.

The MQM party has the broad support of Muslims who fled India in 1947 and has become a secular and liberal force in recent years, but its appeal is limited to a minority and its leadership resides in London.

Within Pakistan's borders, harsh Islamic penalties imposed for social reasons, land reforms, and the flight of many with capital would damage an already weak economy and discourage foreign investment and loans. The emirate would probably blame its economic difficulties on the outside world and use outside pressure as an excuse for even more draconian crackdowns inside.

REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS: AN ANGRY NEIGHBOURHOOD A jihadist Pakistan would be particularly bad news for India, which would have little choice but to build up both its nuclear and conventional forces. Any chance for a peace agreement in Kashmir would be dead, and the new militant regime in Pakistan would www.geopolitics.in

TENUOUS RELATIONSHIP: Pak Army Chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani with Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States increase support for the insurgency. The impact on the 150 million Muslims throughout the rest of India would be a great concern for the Indian security services, already stretched thin with the Naxalite-Maoist threat.

A major mass-casualty attack like the one on Mumbai in November 2008 could spark a war. India has shown remarkable restraint over the past decade in its response to provocations by the Pakistani army or militants in Pakistan, or both, such as the Kargil War in 1999, the attack on the Indian parliament in 2001, and the Mumbai raid. Of course, India lacks any good military option for retaliation that would avoid the risk of a nuclear Armageddon. But pressed hard enough, New Delhi may need to make some response.

The impact on Israel would also be huge.

Pakistan has a long history of support for the Palestinian cause, but mostly at the rhetorical level. An Islamic state would become a more practical supporter of groups like Hamas, providing them with money and arms. Pakistani embassies could become safe havens for terrorists having an eye on Zionist as well as Crusader targets. Needless to say, Pakistan could also provide the bomb.

A militant Islamic state in Pakistan-the second largest Muslim country in the world and the only one with a nuclear arsenalwould have a massive ripple effect across the Muslim world, more profound that any previous Islamic takeover in relatively remote or marginal states such as Afghanistan, Sudan, Somalia, or Gaza. All of

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the existing regimes in the Islamic world would be alarmed at the prospect of Pakistani jihadists arriving in search of new refuges and training facilities. As a Sunni state, a jihadist Pakistan would also have far more resonance in the Muslim world than Shia Iran as Sunnis compose some 90 percent of Muslims.

The global Islamic jihad, spearheaded by al Qaeda, would proclaim that the liberation of the ummah was at hand. Pakistani diaspora communities in the United Kingdom and the Gulf States would see the risk of terrorism rise. Meanwhile the United States would have to take steps to curb the travel of citizens of Pakistani origin to their homeland.

Pakistan's military ally, China, would also be threatened by a Taliban state that might provide assistance to the Muslim minority in the west of China. The Chinese might try to use their arms-supply relationship to modulate Pakistani support for Islamic unrest, but it would be difficult to bargain with the regime in Islamabad.

Bangladesh, the other Muslim state in the subcontinent, would also feel the impact of a jihadist victory in its former partner. Islamic militancy has been on the rise in Bangladesh recently and might receive a substantial boost from an Islamic Emirate of Pakistan.

(Excerpted with premission from the publisher) Bruce Riedel is currently a Senior Fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution.

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FOREIGN OFFICE CHALLENGES

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his month-end will see India a new Foreign Secretary in Ranjan Mathai for two years. The outgoing Secretary, Ms Nirupama Rao, is the first in her service to have enjoyed a fixed tenure of two years, something her counterparts in the ministries of Home, Defence and Finance were already having the benefit of, along with the Cabinet Secretary. It was rather surprising that when the government decided to give some secretaries a fixed term on the ground that they needed some continuity for better results, it did not consider the office of Foreign Secretary important enough.

One does not know whether Rao impressed on the government to rectify the anomaly or the government did that on its own. But a fixed tenure of two years for India’s Foreign Secretary restored some sort of parity to the Indian Foreign Service (IFS) with the Indian Administrative Service (IAS).

Over the years, the IFS has lost much of its charm. In fact, till the 1970s, the first 30 topPrakash pers in the Indian Civil Services examination were usually opting for the foreign service. But these days, candidates prefer even the Indian Police Service and Indian Revenue Service to the IFS. In fact, one has often heard complaints of IFS officers that in India the Cabinet Secretary, an IAS official, is the chief of the bureaucracy in the country when invariably his or her rank in the civil service-examination was much below that of the Foreign Secretary of the day.

Interestingly, Rao, while assuming office on August 1, 2009, had promised to look into the neglected health of the IFS. “Our foreign service counts among the best in the world … in a rapidly evolving world situation, the task is to further augment our diplomatic and professional capabilities as we are called upon to play an even more prominent role in world affairs. This will be an important area of focus in my new responsibilities,” she had said.

Over the last two years, the pay packets of the IFS officers have gone up and are at par with that of their IAS counterparts. But then, the IFS, entrusted with the task of raising the global profile of Indian diplomacy, requires money beyond the sum that meets the salaries and maintenance of establishments abroad. Thus, it is rather surprising that compared to other ministries, the budgetary allocations for the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) for fiscal 2011-12, has, in fact, come down. The MEA has been allocated `7,106 crore (`71 billion/$1.5 billion), which is less than the revised estimates of `7, 120 crore for the ministry in 2010-11.

Secondly, the IFS continues to be a remarkably small service, given India’s global aspirations. Though the ministry has a total staff of 3459, professional diplomats number only about 700 and they are deployed in the 176 Indian Missions and Posts abroad and the headquarters. In contrast, according to data available in 2009, China’s

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foreign ministry has a total strength of 4,500 personnel and the country spends $1.23 billion every year. The corresponding figures for Germany are 6,550 personnel and a budget of $3.2 billion; the United Kingdom has 6,001 personnel and $3.7 billion; Japan has 5,500 staff and $2.92 billion; and the United States has 19,667 staff and spends $10 billion.

Though IFS members tend to marvel with pride at how their diminutive corps manages to keep up with the increasing demands of India’s global engagement, it is well past time to expand the service. In fact, many foreign diplomats think that the IFS may be right-sized for a country like Malaysia, but certainly not for a country with India’s global aspirations.

On the other hand, as the small numbers of the IFS run up and down the ranks, from junior to senior officers, in contrast to organisations with an up-or-out promotion scheme, where underperformers are weeded out over the course of a career, nearly everyone in India’s diplomatic service rises to the upper echelons. In short, every IFS officer, Nanda irrespective of his or her performance, is assured of promotions to the higher rank, thus affecting the overall quality of the service.

As it is, unlike the diplomatic services of the developed countries, the IFS does not have provisions for lateral entry into the service at middle levels from think tanks, universities, the corporate sector or the media, even for short durations. It may be noted here that the United States allows a small number of positions in its diplomatic service to officers from other allied states, including France and the United Kingdom, as a means of exposing these officers to Washington’s labyrinthine bureaucracy.

The United States also has a hiring category of “technical appointee”, designating individuals who are neither permanent civil servants nor political selections vetted by the White House. These technical appointees serve a maximum of four years and offer outside expertise — academic, scientific, or private sector — that might not otherwise reside in the bureaucracy.

In contrast, since 1966, no significant administrative reforms have been undertaken in the MEA. That year the ministry’s Secretary General NR Pillai presented a report that has been partially implemented. The report of the Samar Sen committee of 1983, which went into the functioning of Indian embassies abroad, never saw the light of day. In 2000, the then External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh had initiated the move to re-examine the Service’s structure, but nothing concrete emerged.

Viewed thus, one hopes that the new Foreign Secretary will take due initiatives not only to expand, reform, pay, and train the IFS to attract and retain high-calibre officers but also bring non-career officers into the MEA to improve the efficacy of the policy process.

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prakashnanda@newsline.in July 2011