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PL ANES

TO

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VOL I, ISSUE II, JUNE 2010 RS 100

D E F E N C E D I P L O M A C Y S E C U R I T Y

GROWING CYBER

THREATS

COURTING MYANMAR’S

MILITARY JUNTA COPING WITH

IMMIGRANTS

CHOPPY WATERS Already confronted with threats of piracy and terrorism, India’s maritime challenges could further multiply by the shifting regional power dynamics...

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Choppy Waters COVER STORY P40

The Mumbai terrorist attacks exposed India’s maritime vulnerability. GEOPOLITICS takes a close look at the threats which are growing by the day, be it terrorism, piracy or China’s growing presence in the Indian Ocean.

SPOTLIGHT (P30)

IN-DEPTH (P46)

MOTHER OF ALL DEALS

DIVE FOR DETERRENCE

Is extraordinary pressure being applied on India to favour US suppliers? The choice pertaining to the $11-billion 126 fighter aircraft deal for the IAF has set the tongues wagging.

The imperative for India’s sea-based nuclear deterrence fleet arises due to rapid developments in offensive missile capabilities of other countries.

INTERVIEW (P10)

SCRUTINY (P20)

PERSPECTIVE (P36)

“BSF will do a better job in handling the Maoists”

The Lurking Fear

Migration Blues

While the Chabad House at Pushkar has been closed down to avoid a potential terrorist attack, the hotel owners and traders of the holy city feel that Israelis would stop coming to Pushkar.

The growing concern about Islamic fundamentalism and terrorism has brought to the fore the issue of illegal immigrants from Bangladesh.

E N Rammohan, one of the BSF’s celebrated former Director Generals, speaks to GEOPOLITICS on the various challenges confronting the BSF today.

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June 2010

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FOCUS (P50)

DIPLOMACY (P54)

TERRORISM (P58)

HISTORY (P77)

Given the China factor, India’s foremost national security priority should be the development and operational fielding of Agni missiles.

Taiwan has embarked upon the path to forge cordial ties with all countries, writes Information Minister Johnny Chiang.

Lashkar-e-Taiba is gradually getting out of the control of its creator Pakistan to become a multinational organisation.

An excerpt from the book Sepoy written during the Raj

by Edmund Candler, delineating the peculiar caste consciousness of Indian soldiers.

NEIGHBOURS (P64)

Himalayan Unrest Nepal today is passing through a period of uncertainty, after failing to meet the deadline for drafting a new constitution,

SPECIAL REPORT (P70)

g GEOPOLITICS

UNUSUAL BATTLES

Volume I No 2

GEOPOLITICS delves into 'leapfrog' cyber espionage activities by China, which has reportedly deployed over 10,000 hackers to target key Indian government computer networks.

Editor-in-Chief

K SRINIVASAN Editor

PRAKASH NANDA Consulting Editor

VISHAL DUGGAL Conceptualised and designed by Newsline Publications Pvt. Ltd., D-11 Basement, Nizamuddin (East), New Delhi -110 013, Tel: +91-11-41033381-82 Managing Editor: TIRTHANKAR GHOSH All information in GEOPOLITICS is derived from sources we consider reliable. It is passed on to our readers without any responsibility on our part. Opinions/views expressed by third parties in abstract or in interviews are not necessarily shared by us. Material appearing in the magazine cannot be reproduced in whole or in part(s) without prior permission. The publisher assumes no responsibility for material lost or damaged in transit. The publisher reserves the right to refuse, withdraw or otherwise deal with all advertisements without explanation. All advertisements must comply with the Indian Advertisements Code. The publisher will not be liable for any loss caused by any delay in publication, error or failure of advertisement to appear.

Owned and published by K Srinivasan, 4C Pocket-IV, Mayur Vihar, Phase-I, Delhi-91 and printed by him at Nutech Photolithographers, B-240, Okhla Industrial Area, Phase-I, New Delhi-110020.

Readers are welcome to send their feedback at geopolitics@newsline.in.

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WHICH

WAR

PL ANES

TO

BUY?

VOL I, ISSUE II, JUNE 2010 RS 100

D E F E N C E D I P L O M A C Y S E C U R I T Y

GROWING CYBER

THREATS

COURTING MYANMAR’S

MILITARY JUNTA COPING WITH

IMMIGRANTS

CHOPPY WATERS From piracy and terrorism to China’s increasing presence in the India Ocean, the threats to India‘s maritime security are growing by the day

Cover Design: Jitendra Rawat

June 2010

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gONLOOKER AROUND THE WORLD

COMMANDER DILIP Donde, a naval officer, became the first Indian ever to circumnavigate the world solo on a sail boat when he steered into the Mumbai harbour on May 22 after an arduous voyage spanning a little over nine months. The 42-year-old officer covered 21,600 nautical miles sailing in the seas to achieve the milestone. Commander Donde was given a rousing reception on shore by Vice-President Hamid Ansari, who called the occasion “momentous” and one “which would make every Indian proud”. Congratulating Donde, Chief of Naval Staff, Admiral Nirmal Verma said, “This is indeed a new beginning. Donde has shown professional competence, courage and the will to conquer.” But Donde himself was circumspect: “The Navy was looking for a volunteer to take up the project. I liked the idea as it sounded exciting and volunteered without much idea of what I was getting into. Looking back, it was probably the best and quickest decision I took.” For a voyage to qualify as circumnavigation, it should start and end at the same port and cross all meridians (longitudes) at least once and the equator at least twice. The distance covered should be more than the length of a meridian and the boat should not pass through any canal or straits, where use of engines or towing is unavoidable.

US-CHINA DEAL?

CANADA’S ABOUT-TURN

IN A swift about-turn, Canadian High Commission that had called the Border Security Force (BSF) “a notoriously violent paramilitary unit” went into the damage-control mode. “I would like to stress that Canada has the highest regard for India's democratic institutions and processes. Canada has great respect for India's armed forces and related institutions,” Canada's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Catherine Loubier said in a statement. The diplomatic gaffe took place when the Canadian High Commission rejected an immigration request from retired BSF head constable Fateh Singh Pandher (60), accusing the paramilitary unit of “systematic attacks on civilians” and said Pandher had not provided evidence of dissociating himself from the force.

The about-turn came after Union Home Secretary G K Pillai complained to the Foreign Ministry about the “discrimination” by the Canadian High Commission. Pilliai had also written to Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao about Fateh Singh. Reacting to that, the Foreign Ministry had summoned the Canadian High Commissioner to protest the discriminatory attitude.

SHANKARAN HELD FORMER NAVAL officer Ravi Shankaran believed to be the alleged kingpin in the Navy war-room leak case, has finally been found in London after a hunt half-way across the globe since 2005. "He has been arrested by the police in London and is at present out on bail. We have moved papers for his extradition,'' the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) announced.

Shankaran, 46, was arrested in London last month after a tip-off from Interpol.

The case had created waves after it was discovered that classified data stored in computers in the war-room in South Block had been stolen to help certain arms dealers. It had eventually led to the sacking of three naval officers and an IAF officer. Shankaran was declared a proclaimed offender in 2006.

THE WASHINGTON Post believes that the recent China-Pakistan deal for nuclear reactors is a classic case “of winks and nods, not outright trades.

This might explain why the Obama administration has been quiet about a recent Chinese commercial transaction that nuclear specialists say marks a blatant disregard of international guidelines. In the midst of intense negotiations on new sanctions for Iran, which

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STOP PRESS THE ARMED Forces Tribunal (ATF) headed by Justice A K Mathur has indicted Lt-General Kishan Pal, the then Commander of 15 Corps for fudging the “battle-performance and after-action reports” of the then Batalik-based 70 Infantry Brigade Commander Devinder Singh. Lt-Gen Kishan Pal's biased motive was to deride the performance of Commander Devinder Singh.

The ATF also sent out a message to the Directorate of Military Operations to correct some parts of the official history of the Kargil War.

China was reluctant to embrace, Beijing confirmed that one of its state companies had signed an agreement to supply Pakistan with two new nuclear reactors.

The lucrative deal, if consummated, appears to be a clear violation of international guidelines forbidding nuclear exports to countries that have not signed onto the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty nor have international safeguards on reactors.

June 2010

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O N L O O K E R Fresh inquiry indicts Lt-Gen Avadesh Prakash

Hello Jawan!

COMMON MILITARY helpline telephone number 155200 can now be accessed across the nation to provide assistance to military personnel.

The number that is available at military police control rooms has been instituted to provide immediate assistance and be instrumental in solving and mitigating crisis being faced by military personnel. In addition, it will provide an excellent facility for the civil police and the public to contact the Army Military Police to provide first-hand information of any situation where military persons are involved or has potential to affect the military persons.

GENERALSPEAK

THE FRESH court of inquiry (COI) against former military secretary, Lt-Gen Avadesh Prakash, in the Sukhna land scam (permission granted by the Sukhna-based 33 Corps for a sprawling educational institution on land adjacent to its headquarters, reversing its original security concerns and plan to take over the land belonging to the West Bengal government) has indicted him, and has recommended disciplinary proceedings against him. The fresh report was finalised after the Delhi-based Armed Forces Tribunal ordered the Army authorities to permit Lt-Gen Prakash to cross-examine all the witnesses of the Kolkata-based inquiry.

General Prakash, who retired on January 31 as the military secretary, had moved the tribunal questioning the COI proceedings, and his indictment, saying he was not allowed to cross-examine all the witnesses during the proceedings. The new report is now with the judge advocate-general's branch in the Army headquarters for its legal opinion, authoritative sources said. This opinion would be put up to the Army Chief, General VK Singh, who as the then Eastern Army Commander had recommended General Prakash’s summary dismissal based on the original COI report. The high profile case saw the Army investigating three serving Lt Generals and several other officers for dereliction of duty and misuse of power, an unprecedented exercise in its modern history.

ARMY CHIEF General V K Singh says the armed forces, DRDO and industry need to come together to bolster the country's high-volume, long-range firepower. "The user, developer and producer form a triad.

Army is the user, which comes up with its operational requirements. The developer is DRDO, which has made fair progress on the Pinaka and Brahmos missile-artillery systems,'' said Gen Singh and added, “Industry is the producer, which sets the pace for self-reliance. Great amount of interaction is required among the three, so we get better artillery for armed forces.

While attending an international seminar on artillery technology, the Army Chief said that artillery modernisation process is now underway but perhaps it came 'too late' in the day as he lamented that others have gone far ahead.

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Meanwhile, Gen Singh is putting his weight behind a comprehensive review of the "quantification-based'' promotion policy for officers, which was ushered in by his predecessor Gen Deepak Kapoor in January 2009. Reportedly, Gen Singh has tasked a committee led by Director-General of Artillery Lt-Gen K R Rao to suggest changes in the January 2009 promotion policy. This comes in the backdrop of "negative feedback'' from field on the new policy. Under it, 95 per cent marks are given for "quantified parameters'' like ACRs (annual confidential reports), courses, honours and awards. Only 5 per cent are kept for "value judgement'' by selection board members on criteria like performance, recommendations, potential for employability in higher ranks and, importantly, "degree of difficulty'' in tenures.

June 2010

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g GEOPOLITICS

AGNI-II TEST-FIRED NUCLEAR-CAPABLE AGNI-II missile, with a range of 2000 km, was successfully test-fired by the Army as part of user trial from the Wheelers Island off Orissa coast on May 17.

Agni-II Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM) has already been inducted into the services and the latest test was carried out by the Strategic Forces Command (SFC) of the Army with logistic support from various laboratories and personnel of Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO).

The test was a training exercise to familiarise the end-users with different operational conditions. The 20-metrelong Agni-II is a two-stage, solid-propelled ballistic missile. It has a launch weight of 17 tonnes and can carry a payload of 1000

kg over a distance of 2000 km.

Agni-II was developed by Advanced Systems Laboratory along with other DRDO laboratories and integrated by the Bharat Dynamics Limited, Hyderabad.

The missile is part of the Agni series which includes Agni-I with a 700-km range and Agni-III with a 3,500-km range.

Agni-I has already been inducted and Agni-III is in the process of induction.

In fact, now India is all set to test-fire its first Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile, Agni-V, in Mach-April 2011. Agni V is being designed by adding a third composite stage to the two-stage 3,500km Agni-III, having a range of over 5000 km to carry multiple warheads and will have countermeasures against antiballistic missile systems.

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g DECKS CLEARED FOR DEFENCE VARSITY MORE THAN 40 years after it was mooted, the country will have its first Defence University near Gurgaon. It would aim at imparting education on strategic challenges to armed forces officials, bureaucrats, academicians, parliamentarians and trainees at military academies.

The university will come up at Binola, around 20 km from Gurgaon, the glitzy financial capital of Haryana and a suburb of Delhi. To be established at an estimated Rs 300 crore, the institute would come up on an area of about 200 acres. A sum of Rs 100 crore has been earmarked for land acquisition by the central government.

The existing defence educational institutions like the National Defence College, New Delhi, College of Defence Management, Secunderabad, National Staff College, Wellington, and National Defence Academy, Pune, would also be affiliated to the INDU. At present, these institutions are attached to various universities across the country.

The proposed university, which would be fully autonomous and constituted under an Act of Parliament, would promote policy-oriented research on all aspects of national security as part of the strategic national policy-making.

Ministry against hiking FDI limit THE MINISTRY of Defence (MoD) plans to oppose a proposal from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry (MoCI) to allow hike in FDI limit. The new Consolidated Foreign Direct Investment Policy, effective from April 1, limits FDI in defence units to 26 per cent. However, the Department of Industrial Policy & Promotion of the commerce ministry is in favour of raising this limit. According to MoD, raising the FDI cap significantly would seriously damage India's nascent defence industry, particularly the eight MoD-owned defence public sector undertakings. Defence department feels that the commerce ministry must not raise the FDI cap without first consulting defence ministry, and must not definitely allow 100 per cent FDI. On the other hand, the industry department feels that if the defence sector is opened to FDI, its impact upon the manufacturing sector in India will be great. Foreign defence majors will be more likely to bring in sensitive technology if the higher FDI is allowed.

Defence production requires technology, and also huge capital investments. The MoCI claims that Indian private defence manufac-

turers, such as L&T and the Tata Group, support the raising of FDI caps in order to allow a larger share to foreign companies. But the fact of the matter is that R&D-oriented private sector companies are apprehensive that global majors will use their Indian subsidiaries to get the MoD to fund the development of weapons systems under the “Make” category of the Defence Procurement Policy of 2008.

REPORT NAILS CRPF IN ALL likelihood, the CRPF battalion, which lost 76 men in the deadliest Maoist attack in Dantewada recently, violated every basic rule of operation and became sitting ducks by not proceeding with its area domination mission as planned incident.

Available media reports say that information that was made available to the one-member probe headed by E N Rammohan into the April six attack during his recent visit to Dantewada in Chhattisgarh suggested that the CRPF company invited trouble by staying put in one single place for an entire day, sources in the know of events before the attack said.

The 81-member CRPF team along with a head constable of Chhattisgarh police did not leave for its mission on April 4 at the time — 1900 hours — mentioned in the log book.

The personnel comprising companies of the CRPF's 62nd battalion in fact started moving into jungle areas only at 0500 hours the next day despite instructions not to venture into forests during early morning hours, the sources said.

Information in the documents, which was accessed,

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showed that the CRPF company had spent its entire day in the same ground where it fell to the bullets of the Naxalites in the wee hours of April 6.

Senior personnel in the CRPF team had even summoned some people including the head of the nearby village — Mukram — and asked for large utensils for preparing the meals for the entire group.

As per the operational drill, the CRPF and the police personnel have been strictly asked not to take any help from the villagers or locals and maintain as much secrecy as possible while moving out.

The element of secrecy was missing in the operation as the CRPF company after spending the entire day in the ground shifted to a nearby “Ashram”, a hostel, besides ordering the villagers to bring cots and other material, the sources said.

The Centre had ordered an inquiry by Rammohan, who submitted his report on April 26, in which he talked about lack of coordination between the Chhattisgarh Police and the CRPF.

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g d) User companies need to be properly educated on the security risks and liabilities fixed if they do not comply with security oversight. e) The Agency should use these powers properly and report to the Parliament periodically and its work itself should be subject to a review by a high-powered committee. f ) The head of the agency must be a statutorily appointed authority with a fixed contractual term and supported by a multimember board again consisting of persons with the requisite background and integrity.

ARBITRATOR IN BEL DISPUTE

SC UPSET OVER GOVERNMENT’S ARMY POLICY THE SUPREME Court of India has expressed displeasure over the way the union government is treating army personnel like beggars in respect of emoluments and pension and asked the authorities to adopt a more humane approach towards those bravely defending the country’s borders. A bench of Justices Markandeya Katju and A K Patnaik said this while passing a dismissal order.

The apex court passed the order dismissing the Centre’s appeal challenging a Punjab and Haryana High Court direction to pay higher pension to a Short Commis-

TELECOM AGENCY ON THE ANVIL CLOSE ON the heels of banning Chinese mobiles without IMEI numbers, and banning of telecom equipments from China, the Government is likely to create a Telecom Security Certification Agency to provide security clearance to telecom supplies from China.

Though most telecom operators including the public sector BSNL have been using Chinese supplies both for consumer-end equipments such as internet modems and for equipments in the exchange, the Indian Government had not so far reacted properly to this security threat involved.

Some telecom operators fear that any restriction on Chinese equipments will increase the cost of equipments and dent their profit margin. But the Home Ministry’s proposed Agency will consider the security angle to be more important.

sioned Officer C S Siddu, whose right arm had to be amputated following an accident on duty at the high altitudes on November 21, 1970.

The court expressed regret and said that the army officers and army men in the country are being treated in a shabby manner by the government. In above mentioned case, the respondent, who was posted at a high altitude field area and met with an accident during discharge of his duties, was granted a meagre pension. This is a pittance (about Rs 1000) per month plus D.A.

In the past, Chinese manufacturers are reported to have even penetrated security regulatory agencies in India at the highest level and supplied equipments and computer systems because of their price advantage.

It is believed that the proposed Agency will take the following precautions: a) Every software and hardware supplied directly or indirectly from China should be subject to prior security clearance from the agency. b) The Agency should have the right to demand recall of equipments in the market and conduct sample checks even after the clearance is given. c) It should be ensured that in critical areas, control is exercised on the possibility of equipments being manipulated several months after supply through a “Maintenance” or “Repair” operation. Hence even the AMC contracts are to be closely monitored.

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THE SUPREME Court has appointed its former judge, Justice Arijit Pasayat, as the arbitrator in a dispute between South African firm Denel Ptonics and government-owned Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL). The Indian company placed orders for electronic equipment and the foreign firm supplied it.

However, after accepting the goods, the public sector company refused to pay the bills only on the ground that the Ministry of Defence had issued a direction to it that it should discontinue dealings with the foreign firm and all payments should be withheld. Denel invoked the arbitration clause in the contract. Then the government company disputed its liability for payment and rejected the name proposed by Denel.

Therefore, Denel approached the Supreme Court to nominate a person under the Arbitration and Conciliation Act.

SC CLEARS BORDER ROAD THE SUPREME Court has given clearance to Army’s long pending proposal to construct a strategic road near tri-junction of Tibet, Bhutan and Sikkim. Border Roads Organisation (BRO) has been entrusted with the construction of two strategic roads namely Track Junction Bheem Base Dokala for a length of 13.48 km and Flag Hill Dokala for a length of 33.80 km near tri-junction of Tibet, Bhutan and Sikkim. The Court has put certain conditions including payment of five per cent of the estimated project cost to the Sikkim Government for compensatory afforestation.

Cost of work on Track Junction — Bheem Base - Dokala road is approx Rs. 15.12 crore.

Work has commenced and probable date of completion is 2012. Cost of work on Flag Hill - Dokala is approx Rs. 81.81 crore.

Supreme Court has cleared the alignment in March 2010. The work on this road will start after getting clearance of National Board of June 2010

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g AIRFIELD TO BE MODERNISED THE INDIAN Air Force plans to begin its $260million Modernisation of Airfield Infrastructure project. This envisages, to begin with, upgrading 30 airfields over the next few weeks.

Contract negotiations are under way with a leading Indian corporate, and the pilot project will begin at the IAF base at Hindan, Ghaziabad, on the outskirts of Delhi.

The project includes supply, testing, integration and sustenance of the Instrument Landing System (ILS), the Distance Measurement Equipment, the Tactical Air Navigation System, the Air Traffic Management System, and the CAT-2 Airfield Lighting System.

In the first phase, the IAF will modernise 30 airfields, and the exercise is expected to be completed in 42 months. The Centre has made a provisional allocation of Rs.180 crore for the project in the 2009-10 budget, and the sum will be released after the contract is signed.

In Phase-II, 20-odd airfields, including those of the IAF, the Army, the Navy and the Coast Guard, will be taken up for modernisation. The Defence Ministry feels that based on the experience gained during the implementation of the first phase, the requirements of the second phase will be consolidated. The second phase is expected to be completed in 42 months.

World Life and Forest clearance. Completion of work will take five years after commencement of work.

IAF VICE-CHIEF PREFERS CHINESE STYLE THE VICE-CHIEF of the Indian Air Force Air Marshal Pranab Kumar Barbora is stated to have suggested that India should go the Chinese way by gathering technical data to produce defence equipment through reverse engineering. Reverse engineering is a process of analysing a technology to ascertain how it was designed. The knowledge is then used to build the equipment or system or make improvements to it without using any physical part of the original. India was technologically less literate than Russia and China because it had no access to middle-level technologies following World War-II. This, however, may not go down well with Americans and Europeans, who are finding it difficult to protect their intellectual property rights.

BHEL TO EXPAND BHEL IS expanding its portfolio in the defence sector. It aims to supply higher version of super rapid gun mount (SRGM) naval guns to the Ministry of Defence.

Total revenue from this order could be in the range of Rs 4,000 crore to Rs 5,000 crore.

The company is looking for a technology partner and expects to finalise one in the next 9-12 months.

Currently, over 75% of the company’s revenue comes from the power sector.

However, gradually, the company is looking to expand its portfolio into other sectors as well.

The company is aiming a turnover of $10 billion to $11 billion by 2011-12. BHEL will raise its manufacturing capacity to 20,000 mw by March 2012 from the existing capacity of 15,000 mw.

DEFENCE RESERVATION ON CWG BATON THE QUEEN’S Baton for the Common-

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wealth Games 2010 will have to pave its way during its travels in India.

The Defence Ministry has told the government that the Indian Air Force will not be able to spare its aircraft to ferry the baton to difficult areas such as Jammu & Kashmir and the northeastern states.

The Ministry has said that sparing aircraft will not be feasible in view of the operational requirements of the defence establishment. It has advised the organising committee of the Games to use commercial aircraft as much as possible to take the Queen’s Baton around.

In case there is a genuine problem in getting a commercial plane, the Defence Ministry has promised to try and coordinate the movement of defence aircraft on operational sorties with the baton’s itinerary.

The baton — a symbol of the unity and diversity of the Commonwealth of Nations — will reach India on June 25 to begin a 190,000-km-long, 100-day journey across all capital cities, before reaching the Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium for the Games’ opening ceremony.

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g GEOPOLITICS

Photo by: H.C. Tiwari

INTERVIEW

“BSF will do a better job in handling the Maoists” (10)

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g INTERVIEW

Although originally charged with guarding India’s external boundaries, the Border Security Force (BSF) has more recently been given the task of taking part in counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism operations. E N RAMMOHAN, one of the BSF's celebrated former Director Generals, has recently been in news for holding the one-man inquiry into the killing of 76 CRPF security personnel by Maoists in Dantewada (Chhattisgarh). He spoke to GEOPOLITICS on the various challenges confronting the BSF today. Excerpts from the interview:

Q

have only what is called the Line of Actual Control (LAC).

Should the BSF not be a part of the regular armed forces, rather than that of paramilitary forces?

I cannot answer this question. It is a policy decision of the government. For me, there is not much of a difference between the BSF and the regular forces. The recruitment and training processes of both are the same and both are complementary to each other. The only notable difference between the two is that the regular forces use heavier weapons. But it is an area that is being looked into.

Should the BSF be involved in internal security duties?

Oh yes. I am all for it. In fact, as was evident in Kashmir, BSF is better equipped and trained than other paramilitary forces to manage internal law and order during insurgencies and extreme forms of disturbances.

Extraordinary situations need maximum legitimate force against the troublemakers.

The BSF is more competent on this score than other paramilitary bodies since the latter are trained only to use minimum force. I think that the BSF, rather than the CRPF, will do a better job in handling the Maoists in various parts of the country.

Why is it that the BSF does not guard the entire border, leaving it to the ITBP and Security Services Bureau (SSB) to guard the border with China?

The BSF was primarily raised in the context of the then undivided Pakistan when it was thought that the system of every border-state having its own “special forces” to manage the border was inadequate because of the lack of proper coordination among them.

Secondly, as regards the border with China, (rather Tibet, to be precise), the ITBP and SSB are doing a fine job (Assam Rifles does the job on the Indo-Myanmar border). That is mainly due to the fact that both ITBP and SSB — and I have served in the both — play a double role. They check the border-posts clad in their proper uniforms, but in case the enemy enters the territory and indulges in asymmetrical warfare, they are authorised to shed their uniforms, mix with the local people, and fight.

This is something the BSF is not entitled to do.

Thirdly, another possible reason is that the BSF is supposed to guard the international borders, recognised by the concerned bordering states and the international community.

But as far as China is concerned, we do not have any well-recognised and well-demarcated international border with it as such. We

One hears of corruption in the BSF, particularly on the eastern front in terms of facilitating illegal Bangladeshi immigrants. On the western front too, the BSF persons are allegedly aiding the smugglers. How do you react to it?

I agree that there is corruption in the BSF. But then it is a very complex process. The nature of corruption in the eastern front is different from the one in the western front. In the east, smuggling of all types takes place because Bangladesh is a very poor country and all types of things ranging from rice to cattle are sent from India illegally. And here, there are "middle men" controlled by very powerful politicians with “committed bureaucrats” who are involved. This is equally true as regards illegal immigrants from Bangladesh Let me give two examples. In 1970s, an Inspector General of the BSF, known for his integrity, found out that a BSF Commandant, who hailed from Haryana, was under the influence of a smuggling king, who was a powerful politician and later a senior minister at Delhi. The Commandant was helping the politician/minister in all sorts of unlawful activities in the Malda region bordering Bangladesh. The IG shifted the Commandant concerned. But it made the politician

Do leading foreign countries have BSFlike organisations?

Russia has a very well-developed agency called “Border Guards.” It guards the country’s borders and acts to curb smuggling.

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furious. So much so that he engineered the transfer of the IG within three days and brought back the corrupt Commandant to facilitate his dirty job.

In the second instance, another central minister from Kolkata during the NDA regime had earned the nickname of "cattle king" for his illegal smuggling of old cattle from northern states to Bangladesh. He connived with some BSF personnel to do the job.

Higher authorities in Delhi were made aware of this situation. But nothing happened. The message given to top functionaries of the BSF was to keep quiet, as the minister concerned was the lone BJP representative from the state.

A BJP leader sending cattle from the country to be butchered in Bangladesh?

Yes. What about the corruption on the western front?

It is basically related to the smuggling of contrabands such as heroin. But this takes place at the level of individual officers. Here, it is a question of individual greed. The BSF has taken action against such officials from time to time. And here, unlike the situation on the eastern front, there has been no political intervention.

Are you satisfied with the overall performance of the BSF? The BSF has performed and acquitted itself with distinction.

What should be done to make the BSF more efficient?

There is always scope for improvement. I would emphasise that the BSF should get modern arms and ammunition. The BSF jawans should be allowed to go beyond medium artillery (up to 105 mm guns) and use heavy artillery at par with the regular troops.

The air wing of the BSF needs to be expanded and it should have its own transport aircraft so as to move its troops easily and quickly.

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The recent crash-landings of the DRDO-developed UAVs prove that there are developmental problems with the vehicles. PRAKASH BHANDARI finds out.

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DRDO UNDER CLOUDS (12)

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A

LL IS not well with the DRDO-developed Nishant Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV ).The DRDO developed the UAV with Aeronautical Development Establishment (ADE). The Nishant in six months crash-landed more than three times putting a big question on its airworthiness and operational efficiency.

Recently, in Pokharn range when the Indian Air Force conducted user trial of the UAV the craft drifted and landed in a village.

Villagers at the Indo-Pak border in Jaisalmer district had some awful moments on April 28 and 30 when two UAVs landed in their fields. A few villagers, after finding the vehicles unmanned, dismantled them and took away some of its parts.

Though Air Force officials are mum over the incident, it was learnt that the two Nishant UAVs, during a trial, had lost their way due to change in wind direction and they were landed through parachute. The vehicles were towed away from the spot and are being repaired at present.

With two UAVs crash-landings in three days, the effectiveness of DRDO’s Nishant UAVs has come under a scanner. Though officials of the armed forces through their portal have expressed satisfaction over the test results, situation at ground zero tells a different story.

DRDO maintains that these landings were a result of sudden change in wind direction and some minor technical faults which drove them in a different direction, but they were well controlled. It is learnt that ever since the incident took place, video quality, tracking ability, firing range of the UAV are being evaluated.

According to sources, on April 28, Nishant was launched from mobile hydro-pneumatic launcher, but in a matter of a few minutes, it deviated from the set path and landed in Chacha village near firing range. Similar incident happened a day after on April 30, when the UAV lost the track and landed merely 200 metres from Lathi police station.

While the UAV was damaged by the crashlanding, on both the occasions, before Air Force personnel could reach the site, villagers managed to break into the aircraft and took away quite a few equipment.

A DRDO official said, "The user trials

WILL IT MEET THE SAME FATE? The DRDO is under pressure to perform with regard to the Rustom Medium Altitude Long Endurance (MALE) Unmanned Air Vehicle (UAV) project

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were going on and during the flight there were some technical snags owing to which the craft was landed using parachute. But the landing was done safely and no one was hurt in the process. Though before our officials could reach to get the craft back, villagers damaged the aircraft and took away some equipment.�

Nishant UAV was undergoing crucial confirmatory user trials at Pokhran. The trials were supposed to last for one week. During the trials, three crucial parameters: video quality, tracking ability and fall of gunshot [missed distance after firing] were to be checked. But after the crash-landing the trials were abandoned.

These input performances were critical to operations in the forward areas. The DRDO delivered the first four UAVs to the Indian Army at a cost of Rs 800 million ($17.9 million).

In the year 2010, there were several cases of crash-landing of the UAVs and these crash-landings should serve as an eye opener for the DRDO that designed them to see if there is some design fault that led to the crash-landings.

In May this year a UAV of the Indian Navy crash-landed just short of the runway at the Southern Naval Command in Kochi. The accident occurred as the UAV was approaching for landing after a routine mission. The UAV crash-landed about 300 metres away from thickly-populated Vathuruth area near the command but there was no casualty.

UAVs are expected to play a key role in dealing with low-intensity conflicts abetted by both internal elements and unfriendly neighbours. In addition, there are internal challenges such as insurgency, militancy and

UAV WAS DAMAGED BY THE CRASH-LANDING AND THE VILLAGERS MANAGED TO BREAK INTO THE AIRCRAFT AND TOOK AWAY QUITE A FEW EQUIPMENT

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REVAMPING THE DRDO In a bid to transform and revitalize the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) in form and substance and ensure effective participation of India Inc in the defence technology sector, the government recently ordered a major revamping of the country’s premier defence research organisation.

T

HE KEY measures to make the DRDO more effective in its functioning include the establishment of a Defence Technology Commission with the Defence Minister as its chairman.

The minister has ordered de-centralisation of the DRDO management, making it a leaner organisation by merging some of its laboratories with other public-funded institutions with similar disciplines, the statement said.

Some of the laboratories of the DRDO will be hived off and some will form a part of the proposed commercial arm with a seed capital of

Rs. 2 crore.

Some of the other steps contemplated by the Defence Establishment include the development of Mark-II version of the longdelayed Arjun main-battle tanks and Akash surface-to-air missile systems as well as consultation by an “eminent human resource expert” to restructure the DRDO and selection of industry partners by evolving “a suitable mechanism”.

It may be noted that many of the DRDO’s much-talked-about projects continue to be plagued by huge time and cost overruns (see

UNDER A SCANNER: DRDO projects suffer from time and cost overruns

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the accompanying box).

At present, the DRDO, with its 51 labs, has one director-general at the helm. After being redesignated as chairman, he will head the DRDO management council consisting of seven director generals, four chief controllers (R&D) and an additional financial advisor at the HQ. As part of the restructuring process, the Defence Ministry now proposes to hive off three of its 51 labs, two to CSIR and one to ICAR, instead of the dozen or so recommended by the Rama Rao Committee report.

The Rama Rao report had stressed that the DRDO should concentrate only on 8 to 10 ‘critical technologies’ of ‘strategic importance’ instead of presently venturing into making June 2010

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DELAYED PROJECTS OF DRDO Some of the major delayed projects of the DRDO with original and revised cost, and Probable Date of Completion (PDC) are given below:(i) Light Combat Aircraft Programme - Phase II: Date of sanction Original PDC Revised PDC Original Cost Revised Cost

(LCA), Full Scale Engineering Development (FSED) -

20 November 2001 31 December 2008 31 December 2012 Rs. 3301.78 cr Rs. 5777.56 cr

(ii) Full Scale Engineering Development (FSED) Programme of Naval Light Combat Aircraft (LCA-Navy): Date of sanction 28 March 2003 Original PDC 27 March 2010 Revised PDC 27 December 2014 Original Cost Rs. 948.90 cr Revised Cost Rs. 1714.98 cr (iii) Interception, Monitoring, Direction Finding and Analysis System (IMDFAS) Divyadrishti: Date of sanction 27 August 2002 Original PDC 26 February 2008 Revised PDC 26 August 2010 Original Cost Rs. 560.00 cr Revised Cost Rs. 670.60 cr (iv) Integrated Guided Missile Development Programme (IGMDP): Date of sanction 26 July 1983 Original PDC 30 July 1995 Revised PDC 31 December 2010 (Projects for development of Prithvi, Agni, Dhanush, Akash and Trishul missiles have been completed, whereas PDC for only Nag missile has been extended up to December 2010) Original Cost Revised Cost

GREAT ON FORM: But short on substance — the problem with DRDO projects juices, mosquito repellents, titanium dental implants and the like.

There is, of course, no denying the fact that India needs to develop a robust industrialmilitary infrastructure through an indigenous defence industry, importing as it still does around 70 per cent of its military hardware and software. Defence Minister Antony recently stated that during the last three years, India has imported defence items worth over Rs 25,765 crore while its exports in the defence sector were worth Rs. 744.47 crore only.

(v) Kaveri Engine for LCA: Date of sanction Original PDC Revised PDC Original Cost Revised Cost

-

Rs. 388.83 cr Rs. 1771.43 cr

-

30 March 1989 31 December 1996 31 December 2010 Rs. 383.81 cr Rs. 2839.00 cr

The reasons for delay in completion of the above projects and their cost escalation are stated to be technical/technological complexities; sanctions imposed by technologically advanced countries and various control regimes; increase in scope of work in terms of creation of more infrastructure, test facilities and their maintenance; change/enhancement in user requirements during development; deviations/failures during testing; extended and long-drawn user trials; etc.

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CRASHING TO IGNOMINY: Nishant UAV crash-landed moment after its takeoff

NISHANT UAV IS PRIMARILY TASKED WITH INTELLIGENCE GATHERING OVER ENEMY TERRITORY AND ALSO FOR RECONNAISSANCE & SURVEILLANCE Naxal activities in various parts, all of which are grouped together as low intensity conflicts.

The Nishant UAV is primarily tasked with intelligence gathering over enemy territory and also for reconnaissance, surveillance, target designation and artillery

fire correction, damage assessment. The UAV has an endurance of 4 h 30 min.

Nishant has completed development phase and user trials. But the recent crash-landings of these UAVs prove that there are developmental problems that need to be corrected or else it would go on meeting the same fate.

The 380-kg (840 lb) Nishant UAV requires rail-launching from a hydropneumatic launcher and recovered by a parachute system. Launches at a velocity of 45 m/s are carried out in 0.6 second with 100 kW power and subsequent launches can be carried out in intervals of 20 minutes. The Mobile Hydro-Pneumatic Launcher (MHPL) system mounted on a Tatra truck weighs 14,000 kg (31,000 lb) and boasts of a life cycle of 1000 launches before requiring overhaul. Nishant is one of the few UAVs in the world in its weight-class capable of being catapult-launched and recovered by using parachute, thus eliminating the need for a runway as in case of conventional takeoff and landing with wheels.

However, the crash-landings must have given sleepless nights to the DRDO scientists and they have to work again on the design to make the UAVs 100 percent effective.

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WILL RUSTOM BREAK THE JINX? THE GOVERNMENT has allowed the development of the Rustom Medium Altitude Long Endurance (MALE) Unmanned Air Vehicle (UAV ) project in association with a production agency-cum-development partner (PADP).

In April this year Hindustan Aeronautics Limited-Bharat Electronics Limited ( HAL and BEL) won the contract to be the PADP by outbidding Larsen and Toubro and the Mahindras.

First flight of Rustom took place last year in November at the Taneja Aerospace Air Field near Hosur. The demonstration resulted as the prototype crashing to the ground.

Developed by the DRDO, the taxiing and takeoff of the Rutom was exactly as planned.

However, due to misjudgment of altitude of the flight, the on-board engine was switched off through ground, resulting in the failure of the mission.

Despite the mishap, the DRDO stated: “The flight proved the functioning of a number of systems such as aerodynamics, redundant flight control, engine and data link, which go a long way towards the development of a complex UAV.�

At least 10 more test flights of the Rustom design are expected before the system can be taken up for production. The test work is being performed using a sub-scale version of the air vehicle (Rustom-I TD) with a 1.5 m (4.9 ft) wing span and an overall length of 3m.

Rustom is meant for the three services. It was developed by a team under the leadership of late Prof. Rustom B. Damania, who died in 2001.

Rustom will be able to remain aloft for more than 24 hours and have a range of up to 300 kilometers and a maximum altitude of 10,000 meters. It will be able to use satellite links to transmit data.

Rustom, which has a wingspan of 20 metres and weighs 1,800 kg, will be launched by the conventional method and not by the launcher as in the case of the Lakshya and Nishant. Rustom will be able to see the enemy territory and carry a variety of cameras and radar for surveillance.

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g INTERNALSECURITY The Maoist insurgency can be exploited by China to weaken India’s endeavour to appropriate energy of resources from various parts of the world, cautions DM (JOHN) MITRA

GEOPOLITICS

FANNING THE FLAMES

THE FAÇADE OF A NOBLE CAUSE: A procession organised by Naxalites to champion the cause of the common man in Orissa

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I

NDIAN POLICY-MAKERS and thinktanks, rated as the country’s best brains, should use their creative faculties to build/visualise a credible futuristic scenario of the Maoist insurgency, and formulate an appropriate plan of action founded on pragmatic strategy to effectively meet this nefarious challenge to the country’s security. In this write- up, the author has attempted to articulate such a scenario (of the worst-case category) extrapolating from trends that are visible today.

The author’s endeavour just focuses on and contemplates a likely course that the future may take. For, the author is no soothsayer and makes no tall claims about his ability to predict the future.

The dastardly violent agitation unleashed

by Communist Party of India (Maoists) has emerged as the “single biggest internal security challenge” for the country since independence. However, the full potential of this dangerous challenge is not often kept in mind. Today, the Maoists are active in at least nine states, and are stridently trying to spread their poisonous tentacles in many other states of the Union. Though left-wing extremism led by CPI (Maoist) has the apparent bearing of an indigenous armed insurgency, yet by carrying out a meticulous scenario visualisation exercise, it can be discerned that if the pernicious trends present today continue, this internal security problem India is confronted with might become an irresistible temptation for any hostile nation to merrily fish in troubled waters in order to weaken India. Though China has been officially maintaining an apparent stance of mutual non-interference with India for quite some time now, there are ominous pointers to suggest that the status quo might not last long.

According to the Human Development Report of the United Nations (1998), natural resources of our earth are depleting and degrading at an alarming rate. It also says that 20 per cent of the world population inhabiting the developed countries consumes 86 per cent of the world’s resources.

According to the Statistical Review website, while China’s share was 10 per cent of total world consumption of primary energy in 1998, that of India was 3.1 per cent. Thus together they consumed 13.4 per cent of the total primary energy consumed in the world in 1998. However, the situation on the energy front has drastically changed since then, more so because of a rapid bulge in the birth rate all over the world. As of now, China and India, having around 20 per cent and 17 per cent of the world population respectively, are

GRAVE CONCERN: Home Minister P Chidambaram's task in dealing with Naxals is getting tougher as the renegades mount fresh strikes

20 PER CENT OF THE WORLD POPULATION INHABITING THE DEVELOPED COUNTRIES CONSUMES 86 PER CENT OF THE WORLD'S RESOURCES. getting into the high consumption group. In 2008, China’s share of energy consumption increased to 17.7 per cent of total world consumption and that of India surged up to 3.8 per cent, so that their combined share shot up to 21.5 per cent. As part of its strategic planning, China is invigorating itself by investing generously in energy sectors of African countries. However, in view of the unstable nature of African economy and politics, Chinese strategy may not pay off. Obviously, in view of the size of African countries, and in case the present trends continue, it would not be difficult to foresee that in the coming decades there will be a great scramble to appropriate energy resources among all the countries.

Usually, an acute competition for appropriating resources among countries invari-

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ably gives rise to conflict. Such competition among great powers has, for instance, resulted in world wars in the past. In view of the rapidly growing demand for energy in China and India, the twosome might, in all likelihood, become heavily enmeshed in the ongoing contest to master energy resources along with other developed countries. The democratic peace thesis propounds the theory that “democracies tend not to fight other democracies”. More specifically, liberal democracies tend not to fight other liberal democracies. This proposition is founded on long-term quantitative studies undertaken in American universities. As such, going by the stipulation of the democratic peace thesis, it should be smoothly possible for India to work out satisfactory terms to keep peace with most of the big competitors in the arena of energy resources, as they are liberal democracies like India. However, it becomes but a doubtful conjecture whether the same pattern of peaceful co-existence can apply to India’s big neighbour and adversary, China.

Considering the impracticality of a limited or full war between two big nuclear countries, China can be tempted to look for other options to fish in the troubled waters of the Maoist turmoil in India. In the post Second World War era, proxy wars through fomenting low-intensity conflicts have been used more often than actual wars. In such a scenario, one of the most attractive options for an adversary like China can be to fan Maoist violence through clandestine supplies of arms and ammunition to the insurgents with the aid of local conduits. However, while the Maoists are waging a declared war against the Indian state, they shrilly maintain they are fighting for the country’s deprived and downtrodden masses. They do not seem to have received any political support or recognition from China so far, except that some unofficial Chinese language Mao-loyalist websites have been posting reports depicting the exploits of Indian Maoists in a favourable light. However, on their part, our desi Maoists do not consider the present-day China a revolutionary communist country, as according to them, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has betrayed Marxism-Leninism-Maoism (MLM) and the world’s proletarian movement. For the Indian Maoists, Deng XiaoPing and his successors in China are revisionists. While Indian Maoists take Mao as their guide in all stages of their protracted war, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the present Chinese establishment have been critical of Mao’s mistakes, particularly the Cultural Revolution. However, pragmatism more often than not takes precedence over June 2010

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HALF-HEARTED MEASURE: Salwa Judum experiment has only produced severe backlash from Naxal outfits ideology in a conflict situation. There is at least an ideological common ground (however nominal) between China and Indian Maoists. This, along with other compulsions of an escalating conflict, can always provide an ideological basis for circumventing the differences and justify a cooperation dictated by pragmatism.

Futuristically speaking, fanning the flames of Maoist violence can be tempting for any adversary of India for many reasons.

Firstly, Maoists have been active and strong in the areas considered to be the soft belly of Indian economy. They have deliberately chosen the sparsely populated hilly and forested areas which are inaccessible and beyond the reach of government agencies. Though the hilly areas are situated on geological faults, coincidentally mineral deposits are generally found in fault zones. Therefore, though the initial strategic reasons for Maoists to choose these areas appear to be the geographical features suitable for guerrilla war, the strate-

gic value of mineral deposits was not lost on them. As it is, most of the mineral deposits of the country fall in the area referred to as the Red Corridor. The mineral deposits not only serve the wily Maoists to extort money for their activities, they also provide leverage to them to extend their influence among the people inhabiting these areas. If the Maoist violence is not contained, controlled, and brought down in the shortest possible time, and if the conflict, despite efforts to the contrary, escalates posing a threat to entire areas, it would adversely affect and weaken the country’s economy, as the supply of raw material and power from these areas will be choked.

Secondly, this weakening of India’s economy will immensely benefit any of her adversaries eagerly competing for fuel, since a weaker economy will retard India’s rising demand for fuel. Thirdly, a country’s military power depends a lot on its economic power. Therefore, a weaker economy

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is bound to weaken the country’s defensive power. Loss of face in economic and military power will in turn result in depletion of India’s bargaining power in the international arena. Though this is only a futuristic scenario building exercise based on the present trends, it strongly underlines the potential of Maoist violence in a situation of worldwide resource crunch.

The above visualisation of a probable future scenario of the Maoist muddle might be found wanting here and there, yet it has coherently attempted to highlight at least one definite policy implication: that the liberal democratic state of India and those who are working for its preservation and revitalization have one more reason to take the Maoist threat to India’s liberal democratic structure more seriously.

(The author, an Additonal DGP in Madhya Pradesh, is a Visiting Research Fellow at Institute of Social Sciences, New Delhi) June 2010

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INTERNALSECURITY

THE LURKING FEAR

While the Chabad House at Pushkar has been closed to avoid a potential terrorist attack, hotel owners and traders of the holy city fear that Israelis would stop coming to Pushkar.

A first-hand report

by PRAKASH BHANDARI

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Photo by: Rohit Jain Paras

IN THE EYE OF A STORM: The guest house from which the Chabad is being run at Pushkar

P

USHKAR AND Jerusalem in true words are the cities known in the entire world. Both Pushkar and Jerusalem are pilgrimages that are visited by not only Hindus or Jews but by people of all sects, castes and creeds.

Sanctified by religion and tradition, by history and theology, by holy places and houses of worship, Jerusalem is a city revered by Jews, Christians and Muslims. It reflects the fervour and piety of the three major monotheistic faiths, each of which is bound to Jerusalem by veneration and love. There are a lot of common things between Pushkar and Jerusalem.

A stroll in the market place of Pushkar would surprise a visitor as there are more signages in Hebrew here than in English and one gets the feeling as if strolling in a Jerusalem market. Pushkar thrives on Israeli tourists. More than 40 per cent of the tourists that come to Pushkar are Israeli Jews. They come round the year and stay for a few days or few months. The large number of Israeli tourists help the economy of Pushkar, but they are not big spenders and stay in cheap hotels or private accommodations that cost as low as Rs 300 per day.

A large number of the Israelis come after serving the Israeli Defence Force (IDF) doing strenuous compulsory military training in Israel. After doing compulsory military train-

ing for three years, the Israeli men and women are given $2200 and are allowed to go on holiday. With this money they prefer to come to India and stay in different places for a few months before returning home.

The Israelis have set up Chabad Houses in India, centres where the Jews assemble and stay and offer prayers. These Chabad Houses are run at international level by the Jews to propagate Judaism. Chabad Houses are places where the Jews can stay and observe religious rituals. These Chabad Houses are located in Mumbai, Goa, Kasoli in Kullu district, Manali, Delhi, Kesar Devi in Uttarakhand, Kodaikanal and Dharamshala.

The Jews because of their large presence in Pushkar have posed a grave security problem as they could become the soft target for terrorist groups. The Lashkar-e-Toiba terrorists who attacked Mumbai chose Nariman House where the Jews had their prayer centre (Chabad House). Top intelligence reports suggest that the Israelis in Pushkar could become targets for terrorists as the place is easy for them to operate.

The Jews have set up the Chabad House at Pushkar also but for those who understand the security problem connected with the Chabad House are happy that the Chabad House has been closed down for four months. There is also a speculation that the

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Chabad House would be closed down for ever since it has become a security risk. The caretaker of Chabad House Shimi Goldstein has left for Israel after handing over the key to the landlord Chandrashekhar. He had informed the landlord that he would return after four months to Pushkar as no Israeli tourists would come during the summer. But the people of Pushkar wish the Chabad should not open again, else it would remain a target of the terrorists. “The hatred of Jews is intrinsic to Al Qaeda’s ideology and motivation. Al Qaeda has

THE JEWS IN PUSHKAR HAVE POSED A GRAVE SECURITY PROBLEM AS THEY COULD BECOME SOFT TARGETS FOR TERRORIST GROUPS June 2010

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ATTRACTING FOREIGNERS: Pushkar charms visitors from abroad been committed to the liberation of all Muslim lands and holy places — among these the Palestinian areas and the Al Aksa Mosque in Jerusalem. The focus on Jews may partially be a result of Al Qaeda’s fragmentation following the American invasion of Afghanistan. At that time, it began to rely more on locally-based organizations, who tend to choose ‘soft targets,’ lightly-guarded gathering spots such as night clubs or tourists or buildings associated with the local Jewish community,” admits Rohl Benjamin who is a Jew of Indian origin, whose family worked for railways in Kolkata.

Benjamin has recently completed his compulsory military training and chose India for his holidays because his family moved to Israel from India like many other Jews of Mumbai and Pune. He was warned by his friends and family members not to go to India as the terrorists target the Jews. But Rohl did not heed the advice and came to Pushkar.

The counter-terrorism bureau of Israel’s National Security Council in Jerusalem issued a new, more severe warning against travelling to India in October last year. There was a concrete threat against places frequented by Israelis and Westerners, in particular Chabad Houses and synagogues across India, including the one in Pushkar, terrorism experts warned.

David Headley, the Pakistan-born US citizen who is under arrest in US had come to Pushkar in September 2008 and stayed at Hotel Oasis which is located just opposite the Pushkar Chabad. He made a recee of the Pushkar holy city and studied the activities at Chabad. Headley’s visit was aimed to plan an attack on the Chabad when almost a hundred Jews on a visit to Pushkar would assemble for Sabbath on a Friday. Headley had the

DAVID HEADLEY, WHO IS UNDER ARREST IN US HAD COME TO PUSHKAR IN SEPTEMBER 2008 AND STAYED AT HOTEL OASIS Pushkar Chabad in mind as a large-scale killing of the Jews in Pushkar would have attracted international attention.

The disclosure about Headley’s visit and the fact that he stayed at Hotel Oasis have alerted the hotel owners of Pushkar and they have become vigilant and taken all precautions before providing rooms to the tourists.

“Headley came with a specific purpose to see how the Chabad at Pushkar could be targeted as there is a large number of presence of the Jews here,” says Chandra Shekhar, the owner of the Bhagwati Guest House that has been rented to Chabad.

Chandra Shekhar informs that the Chabads were granted permission to open centres in India by the Union government a few years ago. “I rented the place after ascertaining that their (Chabad) operations have official sanctity. In Chabad, they teach the Jews how to pray and it also serves as the correctional centre where those who indulge in drugs and alcohol are taught how to give up the bad habits,” says Chandra Shekhar.

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The Chabad has hired some locals as domestic help but nobody is allowed entry inside, not even landlord Chandra Shekhar.

The local association of Pushkar Purohit Association, an organization of the Bramhin priests has demanded that the Chabad should be shut. “The large numbers of visitors from Israel to Pushkar pose a security threat. And the Chabad and the holy shrine of Khwaja Moinuddin at Ajmer have become extremely sensitive locations. The visit of Headley was also specific and we are trying to investigate why he visited Pushkar,” says RP Singh, IG, intelligence of Ajmer range.

Several Israeli tourists come here before the Pushkar fair in late November and often stay back in various paying guest-houses and hotels striking a deal on tariff with the owners. Their main attraction is said to be charas and ganja and liquor which are freely available in Pushkar. The Pushkar Purohit Association has warned that the Chabad and the large number of Israeli tourists that Pushkar attracts could become the target of the terrorists and the holy city would face the same situation that Nariman House had faced resulting in the killing of six Jews.

But the hotel owners and traders of Pushkar are of the opinion that closing-down of the Chabad would mean that the Israelis would stop coming to Pushkar because they have started coming in large number after the closing-down of the Mumbai Chabad following the Mumbai terror attack. “The demand for closing-down of Chabad would mean hitting the tourist industry as the Israelis form the large chunk of tourists visiting Pushkar. It’s not only Israelis, but Jews from other parts of the world also visit Pushkar in large number and the closingdown of the Chabad would send a wrong signal among the Jews all over the world and they would strike off Pushkar as a destination,” says Parmanand Gidwani, a trader.

“We, Jews, have something to offer the world, gained from centuries of experience at being hated for no reason other than that we stand up for life and innocence. In fact, it is not clear whether the Chabad victims were hit simply for being Jews. In Mumbai 5000 Indian Jews live and there are synagogues there. But they were not attacked. The Jews are targeted as symbols of Western Jewry, Zionism and Israel or — modernity, globalisation, Western civilization or some combination of all of them. Closing-down of the Pushkar Chabad is no answer to counter terrorism,” says Natalie Zeckheim, who works in a bourse in Tel Aviv.

Whatever happens, the people of holy city continue to live in fear, praying that the bullets of the terrorists do not hit Pushkar.

June 2010

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124 MORE MBTs ORDERED THE INDIAN Army has placed a fresh order for an additional 124 Arjun main battletanks (MBTs), giving a much-needed fillip to the over threedecade-long Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) programme. This is over and above the existing order of 124 tanks. The additional 124 MBTs would help the Army raise two more regiments of the indigenous tanks.

The Army already has a 45-tankstrong regiment comprising Arjuns, which were delivered to the Army by the Avadi-based Heavy Vehicles Factory (HVF) in the middle of last year. The Army had in 2004 placed its first order for 124 Arjun MBTs, of which nearly 50 have been delivered by the HVF. The Defence Ministry had recently decided to go in for the development of secondgeneration Arjun tanks to give a boost to DRDO's efforts in this regard.

The Arjun tank project to design and develop an MBT for the Army was approved by the government in 1974 with an aim of giving the required

indigenous cutting edge to the mechanised forces. The Arjun project had in its initial days been besieged with troubles due to defects in its design such as those related to weight, size, night-vision capability and fire control system. These defects were corrected one by one, over the years.

After many years of trials and tribulations, the tank has now proved its worth by its superb performance under various circumstances, such as driving cross-country over rugged sand dunes, detecting, observing and quickly engaging targets and accurately hitting targets, both stationary and moving with pinpointed accuracy, say officials. Its superior fire-power is based on accurate and quick target acquisition capability during day and night in all types of weather and shortest possible reaction time during combat engagements.

CRPF gets its jackets THE HOME Ministry has placed an order for 59,000 bullet-proof jackets with a manufacturer of a defence solutions company, MKU Pvt Ltd, which is based out of Kanpur in India. The whole order, which amounts to Rs one crore, will have to be supplied within the next eight months, with the first

supplies set to begin from June to the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF). MKU in a span of almost 25 years has pioneered the field of manufacturing protection and armoring solutions and has ventured into diversified avenues including aviation aerodynamics & technology.

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SRSAM for Army THE ARMY is planning to procure a shortrange surface to air missile (SRSAM) system to beef up the country's external security. The procurement process was recently initiated with the release of a Request for Information (RFI) in this regard.

The RFI specifies that the army wants a missile system that can be transported on both rail and road mobile launchers in all possible terrains in the country. The missile should also be able to target objects moving at speeds between zero and 500 meters per second including hovering over targets such as Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), fighter and surveillance aircraft and helicopters.

The Army wants the new missile system to be capable of operating in both day and night conditions. As per the RFI, radar of the SRSAM system should be capable of tracking a number of targets simultaneously and should have Electronic Counter Counter-Measures (ECCM) to be able to support the electronic warfare environment. Furthermore, the system should be capable of operating in Nuclear, Biological and Chemical (NBC) warfare environment.

Loitering Missiles too!

ALSO, THE Army is planning to equip its troops with missiles that can loiter over a target for 30 minutes. The loitering missile would be able to send critical data on enemy installations and later self-destruct on the target.

A global RFI, seeking details from the vendors on the missile's cruising speed, the maximum range at which it can engage a target, its loitering time, the range of its data link, its accuracy, ability to attack from the top, and if it can abort after locking onto a target and be redesignated to a new target has already been released. The missiles are likely to be procured by the end of 2011.

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g NAVY SEEKS SURVEY VESSELS TO TRAIN naval cadets on coastal and oceanic hydrographic survey, the Navy is on the lookout for a shipbuilder with the capability to build vessels that can map underwater landscape.

The vessels are required to carry out surveys near ports and harbours for determination of navigational approaches, channels and routes for defence applications. The Navy wants these survey vessels to be modelled on its own INS Darshak, built by the Goa Shipyard and commissioned into naval service in 2001.

Keeping in mind its future order for such survey vessels, the Navy has issued a RFI to shipyards, both in public and private sector. Darshak is the Navy's eighth survey vessel with a length of approximately 85 metres and 1,800-tonne to 2,000-tonne standard displacement. The vessels, the RFI said, would have an expected life of 25 years and adhere to International Convention for Prevention of Pollution from Ships.

The vessels' machinery, sensors and equipment would have reliability and maintainability for a mission time of eight weeks at a stretch. The new ships would have a single hull of proven design and made of welded steel with steel or aluminium super structure.

Gorshkov on time

RUSSIA HAS said it will stick to the 2012 deadline of delivering modernised Admiral Gorshkov aircraft carrier to India. Gorshkov will be inducted in the Indian Navy as INS Vikramaditya.

India recently agreed to pay an additional US$ 2.33 billion to Russia for Admiral Gorshkov. As per the original contract signed between the two countries in 2004, Indian Navy was to get the carrier in 2008. However,

the two countries were negotiating for the last one year over Russia's demand for $2 billion over and above the $1.5 billion that New Delhi paid it in 2004. Russia pushed the delivery of the vessel to 2012.

The Government of India recently said that the price spent on the repairing and refurbishing of the aircraft carrier was akin to the price of similar warships built in other countries. Moreover, aircraft carriers are not easily available.

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INS Chakra arrives in June THE TRIAL of Indian Navy's Akula-II class nuclear attack submarine is nearing completion, paving the way for its leasing to India on schedule in June. The Russian designed Nerpa being acquired by Indian Navy in US $ 650 million on a 10-year lease deal has been christened INS Chakra and would become the first advanced nuclear submarine of the Indian Navy after its induction.

The Indian Navy had leased a Soviet nuclear submarine in late 80s which was returned to Moscow. Nerpa was initially scheduled to be delivered in 2009, but its induction was delayed as it was hit by an accident in November 2008 while on factory trial sailing in the Sea of Japan.

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g 40 SHIPS FOR COAST GUARD IN ORDER to tackle terrorist activities in the post-26/11 scenario, the Indian Coast Guard is planning to procure 40 ships of different types for its fleet. Post-26/11, the Government had approved a massive expansion plan for the Coast Guard. It may be recalled how terrorists had used the sea route to enter Mumbai on November 26, 2008 for carrying out attacks on multiple targets in which over 160 people were killed. The country's 7,500-km-long coastline touches nine states and four Union territories and is dotted with 12 major and 180 minor ports.

The sea-guarding agency has already initiated the procurement process by

BEL TIES UP WITH RAFAEL THE TIE-UP proposed between the Navaratna defence enterprise BEL and Israeli major Rafael Advanced Defence Systems to make missile looks set to come through this year. The two companies signed a term sheet more than two years ago. Rafael is agreeable to holding a lower equity of 26 per cent in the proposed venture. At present, the Government limits foreign direct investment in a defence venture to 26 per cent.

The MoU of February 2008 had also a provision for exports.

issuing a global Request for Information to both Indian and global ship manufacturers. Of the three different types of ships to be procured, the OPVs would be largest.

The vessels would be used to protect India's offshore assets such as oil rigs and fishing trawlers along with launching operations against narcotics smugglers and search and rescue missions. The Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) had sanctioned 40 ships, 20 boats and 42 aircraft in February last year and later accepted the need for another seven offshore patrol vessels, 20 fast patrol vessels and 12 Dornier aircraft.

CBGs for Navy THE NAVY is steaming towards its aim of deploying two Carrier Battle Groups (CBGs) in Indian Ocean and beyond. By 2014-2015, there should be two fullfledged CBGs, with their accompanying fighters and other aircraft, destroyers, frigates and tankers. The first CBG will be centred around the 44,570-tonne Gorshkov, rechristened INS Vikramaditya, which India will now get in early2013.

The second CBG will be around the 40,000-tonne indigenous aircraft carrier (IAC), whose keel was laid at Cochin Shipyard in February 2009. The 45 MiG29K fighters, contracted from Russia for about $2 billion, will operate both from Vikramaditya and IAC. Incidentally, a 65,000-tonne IAC-II is also on the drawing board.

But for now, Navy's intention is to ''stretch'' the operational life of the 28,000-tonne INS Viraat, even though it's left with only 11 of its Sea Harrier jump-jets, till IAC is commissioned. With as many as 40 warships and submarines on order, coupled with a dedicated communication satellite to be launched later this year by ISRO, Navy is fast emerging as a three-dimensional blue-water force.

This is critical since India's geopolitical interests stretch right from Hormuz Strait down to Malacca Strait.

IAF PHASING OUT MiG-21s THE DEFENCE Minister A K Antony has informed the Lok Sabha that the IAF is gradually phasing out its older MiG-21 combat jets, many of which have been lost in crashes.

The MiG-21 is a very old aircraft. The normal life of an aircraft is 30-34 years. The IAF currently operates a little over 200 MiG-21s.

Of these, 121 have been upgraded to the Bison version and are likely to fly till 2017.

The remaining 80-90 aircraft may be phased out in the next two-three years.

The IAF first acquired MiG-21. Between 1966 and 1984, the Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) built four variants of the aircraft.

In the mid-1990s, despite a series of crashes,

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the IAF decided to upgrade 121 planes of the fourth variant, the MiG-21bis, to the Bison category.

However, the complete phase-out of the MiG-21 is also linked to the acquisition of new aircraft. The IAF is going to induct two squadrons — 16 aircraft each — of the indigenous Tejas light combat aircraft (LCA) and another six squadrons of the plane within six years.

The MoD is expected to complete soon its evaluation of the six jets contending for the order of 126 medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA), a deal worth $10 billion.

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g AWACS IN IAF OKAYS PRS DECEMBER

THE DELIVERY of third AWACS aircraft to the Indian Air Force (IAF) by Israel is expected by December this year. India had signed a contract with Israel in 2004 for supplying three Phalcon airborne warning and control system (AWACS) aircraft, of which the first two have been already delivered.

The additional AWACS would be procured by India under the 12th, 13th and 14th Plans and the DRDO is also developing an indigenous system for the IAF.

IN THE absence of a basic aircraft trainer to train its flying cadets, the Indian Air Force has given clearance for a parachute recovery system (PRS) to be fitted on the Hindustan Piston Trainer-32 (HPT-32).

The IAF's decision, which is based on the recommendations made by a committee headed by Air Vice Marshal Pradeep Singh, will hopefully revive the HPT-32, a Hindustan Aeronautics Limited-designed and manufactured primary trainer that became operational with the defence forces in 1984, but was grounded last July after a fatality near Hyderabad that killed two senior flight instructors.

The PRS will entail a parachute being fitted on the trainer. During an airborne emergency the pilot will pull a lever which in turn will deploy the parachute, bringing the trainer down safely.

The HAL authorities have reportedly said that two foreign vendors have been identified and asked to give presentations/proposals on what they could offer. Once the vendor is chosen the airframes of around 100 HPT-32s will be fitted with parachutes with the HAL most likely to undertake the task under a licence arrangement. It could take at least three to four months before the first PRS-fitted HPT-32 is airborne.

BRAHMOS’ PRODUCTION BEGINS

AJT DELIVERY DELAYED ACCORDING TO Minister of State for Defence, M M Pallam Raju, shortcomings in equipment and mismatch in raw material supplied by British BAE Systems to Hindustan Aeronautics Limited for building Hawk trainer jets have delayed delivery of the aircraft to the IAF. Under a 2004 agreement for 66 Hawk Advanced Jet Trainers (AJTs), 24 aircraft were to be built in Britain and the rest were to be manufactured in India between 2007-08 and 2010-11. Of the 42, six were to be built form semi-knocked down (SKD) and completelyknocked down (CKD) kits and 36 were to be built from raw-material phase.

The assembly jigs supplied by BAE also did not meet the requirements and there was mismatch in the kits and components supplied, there were defects in major assemblies like the wing spar etc, said Raju. These problems took time to overcome and hence affected the production schedule at HAL The HAL has till now manufactured 12 aircraft in the last two years including one from raw material phase.

IN LINE with plans to fit it in the IAF's Su30MKI fighter aircraft by 2012, pilot production of the air-launched version of the India-Russia BrahMos missile has started in Russia. The sea and ground-launch versions of BrahMos missiles have already been successfully tested and put into service by the Indian Army and Navy. So far, the missiles have been assembled at the Strela plant, and manufacturing facilities are also being set up in Thiruvananthapuram with Russian assistance. BrahMos Aerospace, a joint venture between India and Russia, has started designing a hypersonic version of the BrahMos missile, BrahMos-II. The first few missiles for factory tests have been manufactured at the Strela production association in the Orenburg Region. The 2.55-tonne BrahMos super-

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sonic anti-ship missile has been modified, shedding 500 kg and getting a new ignition engine to fire the missile at high altitudes.

The Su-30MKI also required modifications to fit the missile under its belly and integrate it into the plane's fire control system. The Sukhoi Corporation is working to strengthen the wings so that two more missiles can be fitted in the flanks.

It is believed that the BrahMos-armed Su-30MKI would be a game changer in the Indian Ocean, giving the IAF a deeper strategic reach and an extra deadly punch.

With a range of 290 km, the missile will allow the pilot to hit enemy vessels while staying well outside the reach of their air defences. Travelling at a top speed of Mach 2.8 barely 3-4 metres above the sea surface, the missile cannot be intercepted by any known weapon system in the world.

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DEF BIZ AKASH FOR IAF

BHARAT ELECTRONICS LTD (BEL) is integrating various systems for Rs 10,000 crore ($2.6 billion) Akash surface-to-air missile (SAM) project. Developed as part of India’s Integrated Guided Missile Development Program by DRDO, Akash is an all-weather, medium-range, surfaceto-air missile system. It has a multidirectional, multitarget area defense capability and can take on multiple air targets in a fully autonomous mode of operations.

The first phase of deliveries to the IAF would begin this year. The IAF has placed orders for two squadrons, and BEL is expecting to provide for four more squadrons soon after the initial delivery schedule is complete. The Indian Army may also order a different variant of the missile for two of its squadrons. The first two squadrons of IAF missiles will consist of 48 units each.

g C-17 FOR INDIA THE US Defence Security Cooperation Agency has notified the Congress of a potential sale of 10 Boeing C-17 transport aircraft to India. This is an important step forward in the US Foreign Military Sales (FMS) process and is a necessary prerequisite to negotiations on the deal.

The C-17 is the workhorse of the US Air Force transport fleet and has proven to be highly reliable in the harsh environments of Iraq and Afghanistan. The IAF would use the C-17s to modernise India’s armed forces with new cargo capabilities and as a replacement for its ageing Russian IL-76 fleet.

SUCCESSFUL LCA FLIGHT THE MAIDEN test flight of the most advanced of the nine Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Tejas aircraft has been carried out successfully. With this successful flight, the LCA (Tejas) programme is very close to the Initial Operations Clearance, which is to be completed by December 2010. The test aircraft was flown by Wg Cdr G Thomas of the National Flight Test Centre at ADA. As per procedure the first flight was accompanied by a chase aircraft which was

a Tejas Trainer. The flight took off from HAL airport in Bangalore and all the flight's objectives were met within the duration of 52 minutes, DRDO said. With this flight the total number of test flights accumulated across nine test vehicles of Tejas programme has reached 1,350 and has logged about 800 hours of flight.

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With a 75-tonne payload, the C-17 can take off from a 7,000-foot airfield, fly 2,400 nautical miles in one go, and land even on a small, austere airfield at 3,000 feet or less. In addition to the US Air Force, the C-17 is currently in service with the British Royal Air Force, the Royal Australian Air Force, the Canadian Forces, NATO and Qatar. The UAE too has placed orders for the aircraft.

Although the official notification to Congress lists the potential value as USD 5.8 billion the actual cost will be based on IAF's requirements, which is yet to be negotiated.

UKRAINE OFFERS COOPERATION UKRAINE HAS offered to develop jointly a medium weight transport aircraft with India. It has offered to jointly produce a 10-12 tonne class weight aircraft with India that would be based on its already existing Antonov-148 commercial aircraft. If the Ukrainian proposal is approved, this will be the second such co-development programme for transport aircraft after India and Russia signed a contract for developing the Multirole Transport Aircraft (MTA) few years back.

IAF will procure 1220 tonne C-130Js from America at over $1.5 billion and codevelop the MTA with Russia. It also plans to procure around 10 C-17 strategic lift aircraft from the US, which can carry over 70 tonnes of load.

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SPOTLIGHT

THE MOTHER OF ALL DEALS Is pressure being applied on India to favour US suppliers? The choice pertaining to the $11-billion 126 fighter aircraft deal for the IAF has set people talking in hushed tones, writes ABHIJIT BHATTACHARYYA.

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F

OREIGN MANUFACTURERS are all set to tap the cash-rich Indian arms bazaar. The accompanying table shows the salient features of the products of the six bidding global aerospace majors for the supply of 126 multi-role combat aircraft for the Indian Air Force (IAF). The two-year deadline for the bids submitted by these six bidders against the global tender put out by India ended recently. However, these may or may not be fully accepted or appreciated by the potential buyer owing to some extra or special stuff requirement to suit the local conditions and the environment in which the multi-role fighters are likely to operate. It could, therefore, result in a fresh or additional “request for proposal” for interfacing, say, of Russian radar with Israeli armament, French flying controls with American armament and avionics. Following that could be extensive “field” trial on an actual flight envelope encompassing the ultimate performance at the “edge of the” simulated “battle area”.

And finally, the tug-of-war on pricing and cost-benefit analysis could ensue among the six bidders. None can predict its outcome, but what the possible scenario would be one can safely visualise. There is bound to be lobbying and counter-lobbying, allegations and counter-allegations, disinformation and misinformation galore, resorted to by the rival bidders to shake the confidence of the Indian establishment and delay the decision- making process of the user. All, simply because the quantum and quality of the worth $11-billion deal are too big, important and too high for the survival of some and revival of fortunes for some others. Hence, it is a virtual war-like situation for the bidders of the USA and Europe.

Nevertheless, as the vendors will continue to fight in the board rooms and the customer's conference room to showcase their product, it would also be the call of the

pleaders and lobbyists to prove what they consider to be the best aircraft for the Indian sky. And that would be a job wherein the quality of ethics and morality are bound to fall by the wayside.

Thus the lobbyists may go to an emphatic over-drive to prove that it would be an inherently better option for India to go for a twin, rather than a single, engine fighter as the former will have a pure and pristine edge over the single engine on combat radius, engine power, reserve power, emergency situation in cases where one engine becomes inoperative etc. Hence the pleaders of twin engines, and critics of the single engine-powered aircraft, will come down heavily on the choice of the Swedish-made SAAB JAS-39 Gripen and the US-manufactured Lockheed Martin F-16.

Regarding the protagonists of the opposition camp, the counter-logic is likely to be the traditional fighter inventory of the Indian Air Force which had the propensity to use the one-engined Vampire, Ouragon (Toofani), Mystere, Gnat, Hunter, MiG-21, MiG-23,

THERE IS BOUND TO BE LOBBYING AND COUNTERLOBBYING, ALLEGATIONS AND COUNTERALLEGATIONS,

BY THE BIDDERS

Mig-27, Sukhoi-7 to Mirage-2000 and the uninterrupted, continuous mission capability and accomplishment thereof.

In fact, one is apprehensive about the opposition and the likely heat generated in the aftermath of any decision pertaining to fighter selection for the IAF. The tension is already palpable as rivals are on over-time and over-drive to establish the credential of their respective flying machines and finding flaws and faults of the “other aircraft” for being “obsolete”, “consistent mission failures”, “flying coffins”, “commissioned” machine manufacturer, “intelligence-leakage” operator and what not! In fact, the multi-national “dog-fight” in all altitude deep inside the Indian airspace has begun with some more unusual, but not unexpected, pyrotechnic in the offing.

If tradition is any guide, the first “controversy” pertaining to fighter selection in the Indian arms market took place with the selection of Anglo-French Sepecat Jaguar in the 1970s. Though the aircraft subsequently proved to be useful and effective for the IAF, the selection “took the life” of the then serving Defence Secretary Sushital Banerjee.

The ghost of Bofors of 1980s still haunts the Indian establishment. So much so, that it has virtually stymied the selection process of the field gun for the Indian Army thereby confronting the force with the real possibility of going without guns at present, notwithstanding the persistent call of the Army. Thus, despite its superb performance during the Kargil war in 1999, Bofors and Sweden (being the country of origin) are the two possible whipping points for those bidders who may miss the bus in case SAAB JAS-39 Gripen wins the race and manages to fly from the Indian Air Force base.

The critics of “obsolescence” factor may further question the wisdom of selection of Contined on page 34

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RUSSIA MiG-35

Multirole fighter Production of land-based MiG-29s ended in 90s. Prospects for new production dependent upon Indian order for carrier-based MiG-29K MiG-35, the most recent successor of MiG-29, was adopted in 2005 when MiG-29-OVT upgrade was redesigned for possible new manufacture in India to meet requirement for 126 aircraft.

Emphasis from start on high manoeuvrability, to counter US F-15, F-16 & F-18 with target destruction at distances from 200 meters to 37 miles.

Fly-by-wire.

Retractable tricycle type 2 Klimov / Sarkisov RD- 33 MK “marinised” turbofan with 19180 pound static thrust with afterburner Pilot only on 160 rearward inclined zero/zero ejection seat. 3 internal mirrors provide rearward views Two independent hydraulic systems and three separate pneumatic systems.

Expected to incorporate French, Russian and Indian components Mixture of air-to-air and airto-surface missiles, TV guided bombs, free-fall bombs and a single barrel gun.

Wing span 39 ft. 4 inch. Overall length 56 ft. 11 ¾ inch Max level speed 2400 kmph/1491 mph at 57420 feet.

Combat range with maximum fuel 850km/528 miles.

USA F-16

SWEDEN

SAAB JAS-39 Gripen Multirole fighter Entered service in 1979.

At least 12 versions available Optimised for high agility in aircombat. Pilot's ejection seat inclined 30 rearwards. Baseline F-16 airframe life planned as 8000 flying hours.

Fly-by-wire-system.

Retractable tricycle type.

1 General Electric/Volvo Flygmotor turbofan with afterburner Pilot only on Martin -Baker Mark 1OL zero/zero ejection seat 2 wingtip mounted Sidewinder air-to-air missiles and 6 other external hard points. Weapons include short and medium-range air-to-air missiles, anti-shipping missiles, conventional or retarded bombs; air-to-surface rockets or external fuel tanks.

Wing span 27 ft.6 ¾ inch. Overall length 48 ft. 5 inch.

Multirole fighter Design submitted February, 1972. Entered service January 06, 1979 At least 12 versions available Optimised for high agility in air-combat. Pilot's ejection seat inclined 30 rearwards.

Baseline F-16 airframe life planned as 8000 flying hours Four channel digital fly-by -wire system Hydraulically retractable type One General Electric or Pratt and Whitney with 29000 pound static thrust and above Pilot only on Boeing ACES II zero/zero ejection seat.

Avionics covers communication, radar, flight, instrumentation, mission and self-defence Standard mounting for an airto-air missile at each wingtip, one under fuselage centerline hard point, and six underwing hard points for external stores Wing span 31 ft. Overall length 49 ft. 4 inch Wings gross 300 sq. ft Make take off weight varies between 14.66 tons to 21.77 tons depending on the version Max. level speed at 40000 ft. , above Mach 2.0.

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FRANCE Dassault Rafale

USA Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornet

Multirole fighter Requirement issued 1991.

Entered service on November 17, 1999 At least three versions operate at present Generally, as for first generation Hornet. Additional 1.637 ton internal and 1.40 ton external fuel Full digital fly-by-wire controls; leading and trailing edge flaps scheduled automatically for high manoeuvrability, fast cruise and slow approach speed Retractable tricycle type Two General Electric turbofans, each rated at approximately 22000 pound static thrust with after burning Pilot only on Martin-Baker SJU-5/6 NACES zero/zero ejection seat 60 percent more electrical power than the earlier versions of F/A 18 At least 29 weapons combinations cleared before service entry Wing span 44 ft. 10 ½ inch. Overall length 60 ft. 3 ½ inch Wings gross 500 sq. ft Max external stores payload at take off 8.02 tons. Max. take off weight (marine) 29.93 tons. Max . take off weight (land) 30.20 tons Max. level speed at altitude, Mach 1.6. service ceiling 50000 ft.

Combat range between 2361 km/1467 miles and 3074 km. /1910 miles. g limit + 7.6.

EUROFIGHTER Typhoon

Multirole fighter Conceived in 1983, it entered service June, 2003 At least 25 types exist Agile fighter; subsonic instability exceeds 35%. Low-observables specifications. Intended servicelife 6000 hrs/25 years. Operational turn-round by 6 ground crews in 25 minutes Full authority quadruplex ACT (active control technology) digital flyby-wire flight control system….. with “carefree handling” Retractable tricycle type 2 Eurojet EJ-200 advanced technology turbofans; each of approx.

13490 pound static dry and 20250 pound thrust with after burning 1 Pilot for combat and 2 for training with zero/zero ejection seat Wings gross 551.1 sq.ft Normal weapon payload 6.5 tons.

Overload 7.5 tons. Max. interceptor take off weight-16 tons. Max. attack take off weight - 21 tons. Overload23.5 tons Max. level speed Mach 2.0. Service ceiling 55000 ft. Combat radiusground attack 601 km (374 miles); air defence 185 km./105 miles. g limits with full load + 9/-3 Wing span 37 ft. Overall length 52 ft. 4 ¼ inch.

Multirole fighter Design began on June, 1982. Entered service on May 18, 2001 At least five versions exist for domestic use along with an exclusive export version called Rafale Mark 2 offered to South Korea Designated "omni role" to describe simultaneous air-to-air and air-to-round capabilities. Minimum weight and volume structure to hold costs to minimum Fully digital fly-by-wire controls Hydraulically retractable tricycle type 2SNECMA M-88-2E4 augmented turbofans, each rated 10950 pound static thrust and 16400 pound static thrust with afterburning Pilot only on SEMMB Martin Baker MK-16 zero/zero ejection seat Dual hydraulic circuits; Triplex digital plus one dual analogue fly-bywire flight control system; integrated with engine controls and linked with weapons systems Provision for more than 780 kilogram of avionics equipment and racks pertaining to communications, radar, flight, instrumentation, mission and self-defence 14 external stores attachments.

Normal external load 6 tons. Maximum permissible 9.5 tons.

Wing span 35 ft. 5 ½ inch. Overall length. 60 ft. 3 ½ inch Wing gross 491.9 sq. ft Normal external payload 6 tons.

Maximum external payload 9.5 tons. Max. take off weight varies from 19 to 24.5 tons depending on the versions Max level speed Mach 1.8. Service ceiling 55000 ft. Radius of action: low level 1055 km/655 miles. Long range 1759 km./1093 miles. g limits + 9/-3.2.

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THE GREATEST HURDLE TO EUROFIGHTER TYPHOON OFFER TO INDIA COULD BE THE HIGH PRICE TAG ON THE FIGHTER AIRCRAFT Lockheed Martin F-16 Fighting Falcon which has been in the air, (with 4519 aircraft having been sold), close to 32 years, up gradation of the machine and operational use of 24 customers notwithstanding. Interestingly, the main danger to the selection process of F-16 may come more from its country rival Boeing (than the European bidders) since Washington is also show-casing its “state of art” twinengine Super Hornet F/A-18 with an overall “superior capability” in all aspects owing to its being “bigger, larger, stronger and better” from take off to touch down, both on and off the shore with land and marinised versions.

One of the consistent suppliers and persistent hardware producers to India since the

TYPHOON: The Eurofighter’s prized aircraft 1950s has been France and the dislike of US manufacturers of the French is too well known to be freshly documented. However, ever since the discovery of a camaraderie and comradeship in joint exercises (2005-2006) in Maharajpur (Gwalior) and Kalaikunda (Kharagpur), the Americans are unlikely to let go the unprecedented opportunity of “serving” and “saving” the Indian Air Force from the “monopoly clutches” of European manufacturers. If India could start operating the landing ship Trenton in the midst of Russianmade vessels of Foxtrot and Kashin, Krestas and Krivaks, Osas and Tarantuls, why cannot the US enterprise showcase its products in the squadrons of the IAF?

FIGHTING FIT: IAF needs state-of-the-art fighting machines

Of all the bidders, the combined might of the multinational Eurofighter Typhoon is sure to tom-tom its state-of-the-art machine with “true” multirole capability, thereby hinting at the “inferior” performance of all others in the fray. But can that really be so? Eurofighter initially had little inclination and interest in Indian market owing to its confidence to make money from the backyard of Europe itself. However, drastic cut in the budget of several European nations and the consequent cancellation of confirmed orders compelled Eurofighter to look seriously to the east of Suez, India. Nevertheless the greatest hurdle to Eurofighter Typhoon offer to India could be the high price tag on the aircraft owing to high cost of research and development and the traditional high input cost of production in Europe.

Amidst all these bidders, where does Russia stand? Can the Russians — being the traditional suppliers of aircraft and rotorcraft of all types and varieties close to fifty-five years — give up so easily? Are not they powerful enough to influence the psyche of a majority of actual users of the Moscow-made machines both in the air and in the maintenance depots from Leh to Trivandrum and from Bhuj to Khumbhigram? With hundreds of tanks, guns, MiGs, Antonovs, Sukhois, Mils, Tupolevs and Ilyushins in the inventory of the Indian armed forces and the Moscow-made nuclear submarine “Akula” and aircraft carrier Sergei Georgievich Gorshkov in the pipeline, no establishment of India would be able to deal with Moscow with a kid-glove attitude.

In fact, the Russians have enough leverage to play both China and Pakistan cards to resort to pin-prick should they choose to do so.

However, with the recent, March 2010 visit of June 2010

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the Russian Prime Minister Putin and the finalization of US $4 billion defence deal, one just cannot ignore Moscow's clout in Delhi. India is deeply embedded to the bear hug of Russia for too long to extricate overnight.

The moral of the story is very simple. The choice and decision pertaining to 126 fighter aircraft for the IAF are fraught with turbulent times, notwithstanding whichever is the government and whosoever is the Prime Minister (of the day). In fact the whispering campaign of “War of all against all” has already begun.

Nay, it has turned into a war cry as was seen from the news item of September 10, 2007 — “Left alleges sellout on fighter aircraft.”

Reportedly, it has been alleged “that extraordinary pressure is being applied on India to favour the US suppliers for the supply of 126 multi-role combat aircraft, the global tender for which was put out by India last week.

Interestingly, assuming without conceding that both the allegations of the political party and the extra-efforts of the USA are true, do they constitute any surprise? One does not feel so, because the stakes are too high pertaining to money and matter, prestige and power across the global market of “one world”. One would be surprised only if everyone starts following ethics and morality, preaching and teaching the truth, to be followed in deed and seal the deal for 126 fighter aircraft for the IAF. Indeed, the possible worst scenario and fall-out of this open war for the fighter market in a democratic India could result in a further delay in equipping the IAF if the US seriously pushes its latest 5th generation

WAITING FOR THE INDUCTION: MiG 35 — needed to phase out MiG 21

THE STAKES ARE TOO HIGH PERTAINING TO MONEY AND MATTER, PRESTIGE AND POWER ACROSS THE GLOBAL MARKET “Joint Strike Fighter F-35”. If media report is to be believed, the US has already “offered the hi-tech F-35”. Though at present this aircraft does not figure in the list of fighters in the “request for proposals”, in an unlikely event of a worsening all-out allegations and counter-allegations of “deal”, “under hand deal” and “raw deal” etc, the situation for India and her armed forces could indeed be murkier than what one has seen thus far. Hence the Indian establishment needs to gear up for the future market war with a stoic resignation pertaining to life which may prove the words of the philosopher to be true — “solitary, poor, nasty, brutish and short” with an equally shorter shelf life of the figures, proposals and disposals of the 126 aircraft for the IAF. Till then one can only wait, watch and wait again with baited breath.

(The author is an alumnus of the National Defence College.)

June 2010

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MIGRATION BLUES

While no part of the world is unaffected by migration, it is highest between countries with contagious borders.

ASHWANI SHARMA analyses‌

Photo by: H.C. Tiwari

AT THE EXPENSE OF THE HOST: Immigrants have virtually made India their home

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ITH THE increasing flow of migrants across the world, there has been a marked change in the charter of contemporary international migration. South-South migration is acquiring increasing salience in international migration matrix. Many developing nations which were ‘sending countries’ are increasingly becoming ‘receiving countries’ for migrants. There are a substantial number of developing nations that have been receiving migrants from other developing countries with low-income. This continuing trend has been confirmed by a recent World Bank report which indicates that there is a discernable shift from North-South migration to South-South migration. Many developing countries like India, the Islamic Republic of

an important feature of South-South migration; particularly between countries that share common borders. Nonetheless, flow between countries and across regions of the South has become a salient aspect of the international migration system. Migration, legal as well as illegal, between countries with contagious borders is the highest. For example, ninety per cent of migrants into India are from the neighbouring countries.

In South Asia, more than fifty per cent of the migrants move to either the neighbouring countries or other developing countries.

The above analysis suggests that contemporary migration is global in scope as there is no part of the world that is unaffected by migration: the nature and intensity of its impact may vary from region to region, and over time. In most host countries, particular-

CONTINUING INFLUX: Bangladeshi immigrants pour in India unabated

Iran and Pakistan have now begun to appear in the list of top receivers of migrants worldwide.

According to World Bank estimates, South-South migration may be as high as North-South migration. This share may be much higher if illegal immigrants are taken into account because illegal immigration is

ly in liberal democracies, once migration takes place, it inevitably results in a substantial number becoming citizens of the host country and creating a cultural, linguistic and religious minority within the state. The immigrant community has the potential of affecting the political, economic and social conditions within the host country. Impor-

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tantly, this community can affect the geopolitics of the host nation-state.

In the contemporary world, many governments as well as citizens have been unable to appreciate the scale and significance of particular patterns of movement. There are examples from the western world as well as the Third World to drive home this particular point. In 2006, the British government admitted that it was unaware of the scale of flow of illegal immigrants to the United Kingdom. Until the late 1990s, the Indian government also had no idea of the scale of the flow of illegal immigrants from East Pakistan/ Bangladesh to India.

The migrants from Bangladesh are increasingly perceived as a threat to national well-being and security. This particular point was underscored in April 2008 by the declaration of the Parliamentary Standing Committee that ‘a large presence of illegal Bangladeshi immigrants poses a grave threat to the internal security (of India) and it should be viewed strongly’. On the basis of media reports of involvement of Bangladeshi insurgent groups in recent terrorist acts in India, the 25-member committee recommended that Bangladeshi migrants in the country should be ‘strictly monitored’.

It is indeed difficult to have accurate and reliable estimates of the Bangladeshi migrants in India. A recent study based on Indian Census data estimated that there were 3.1 to 3.7 million Bangladeshis in 2001.

However, the Government of India estimated that in 2004 there were 12 million Bangladeshis residing illegally in the country. There appears to be a general agreement among analysts of varying ideological inclinations on the current estimates of Bangladeshi migrants in India: 20 million in 2010. However, the most disconcerting fact appears to be the revelation by the recent

IN TERMS OF FLOW, THE INDOBANGLADESH CORRIDOR IS MOST ACTIVE GLOBALLY, SECOND TO THE US-MEXICAN BORDER. June 2010

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NEED FOR A POLICY: Bangladesh Parliament

World Bank study which contends that, in terms of flow, the Indo-Bangladesh corridor is one of the most active globally, and is a close second to flows across the USMexican border.

The continuing migration of Bangladeshis to India has become a politically and socially sensitive issue. The north-eastern states of India have received the largest inflows of migrants due to their proximity to Bangladesh. Historically, a substantial number of refugees migrated to these states during the partition of the Indian sub-continent in 1947 and subsequent formation of an independent nation-state of Bangladesh in 1971. The largest inflow of these migrants has been in the state of Assam. This has led to demographic and cultural changes within the state and provoked anti-Bengali movements. In the late 1940s, the Bengal Kheda (drive away Bengalis) movement started in Assam. And in the 1960s, a substantial number of Bengali Hindus fled to the neighbouring states of West Bengal and Tripura. The All Assam Students Union (AASU) led an antiforeigners’ movement during 1979-84. The movement opposed the entry of illegal immigrants from Bangladesh, and demanded the expulsion of all Bengalis who had entered Assam since 1951. The violence that engulfed the movement led to the killing of thousands of people; majority of these were Bengali-speaking Muslim immigrants. Analysts have argued that in these insurgentprone north-eastern states characterized by social and politically instability, the unabated flow of Bangladeshi illegal immigrants has fuelled divisive and aggressive tendencies.

The motivating force underlying these

THE UNIQUE IDENTIFICATION CARD PROJECT COULD POSSIBLY HELP IN THE IDENTIFICATION OF ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS movements has been a serious threat to cultural/linguistic identities of the people in the north-eastern states. The Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) party leader in an interview to the BBC in 2005 articulated the sentiments by stating: “The illegal immigrants from Bangladesh are a major threat to our identity. We will become foreigners in our own land unless we keep these people out of Assam.” This view was reinforced by the Supreme Court in its judgement which stated: “The presence of such large number of migrants from Bangladesh, which run into millions, is in fact an aggression on the state of Assam and has also contributed significantly in causing serious internal disturbances in the shape of insurgency of alarming proportions.”

The growing concern about Islamic fundamentalism and terrorism has raised the profile of the issue of illegal immigrants from

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Bangladesh in public discourse. In the perception of analysts, policy-makers, journalists, and the ordinary people, it is a serious issue and requires effective solution. According to a leading journalist, ‘There are as many as 20 million Bangladeshis scattered across India. Some are genuine refugees, men and women fleeing persecution. But many are seeking to make a quick buck at the Indians’ expense. More worrying, an increasing number are criminals allied to terrorists.’ A comment by an ordinary citizen encapsulates the sentiments of a large section of Indian people: ‘Too many Bangladeshis are coming here without passports. They take our jobs, some are terrorists.

They need to be stopped.’

The Indian policy-makers need to address the issue with short-term measures as well as a long-term solution because it has the potential of getting enmeshed with the issues of threat to internal security, identity, communalism, human rights, and social harmony and political stability. The ongoing diplomatic process between India and Bangladesh of finding a viable solution to illegal migration of Bangladeshis in India has the potential of mitigating the problem as both sides appear to be serious in resolving the issue. The Unique Identification Card project started by the Indian government could possibly help in the identification of illegal immigrants in India.

However, to deal with the existing illegal Bangladeshi immigrants with an appropriate response would remain a challenge for the policy-makers in India.

(The writer is Associate Professor in International Relations at the University of Delhi) June 2010

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The November 2008 terrorist attacks in Mumbai exposed India’s maritime vulnerability. The threats from sea are, in fact, growing by the day — be it terrorism, piracy or China’s growing presence in the Indian Ocean.

CHIETIGJ BAJPAEE analyses …

SEA June 2010

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F LATE, India’s maritime security is facing a growing complexity of threats, be it the deployment of a threeship squadron of the China’s Peoples Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) to the Gulf of Aden in 2008; the infiltration of Pakistan-based militants into Mumbai by sea ahead of mounting coordinated attacks on multiple targets in the city in November 2008 or a surge in maritime piracy incidents in the Bay of Bengal and Gulf of Aden. On the one hand, the Mumbai terrorist attacks and China’s PLAN deployment to the Indian Ocean demonstrate competing pressures on India’s maritime security needs between enhancing its naval power projection capabilities and protecting the Indian coastline. At the same time, however, asymmetrical and conventional maritime threats are not mutually exclusive. Maritime terrorism and piracy are actually providing state actors such as China with the justification to expand their presence in the Indian Ocean.

Under the pretext of protecting Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs), China is achieving its ambitions of expanding its blue water naval capabilities. As such, an integrated and holistic approach is necessary to address the range of divergent but overlapping threats to India’s maritime security.

There have been few incidents of maritime terrorism in India although the ingredients for such an attack are in place; namely a porous, poorly demarcated and

disputed maritime border, a plethora of high-profile targets close to the coastline and several motivated groups with the capability to mount increasingly sophisticated attacks.

This was demonstrated with the terrorist attacks on Mumbai in November 2008 when 10 militants infiltrated the city by sea from the port of Karachi in Pakistan. They did so after hijacking an Indian fishing trawler and decapitating the crew. Previous attacks in Mumbai have also exploited the city’s lax maritime security. Explosives used in the multiple bomb blasts in Mumbai in March 1993 were reportedly smuggled into the country by sea with assistance from the organised criminal syndicate of Dawood Ibrahim while the explosives used in the Mumbai train blasts in July 2006 were also reportedly smuggled into India through the porous Gulf of Kutch coastline. In none of these incidents were naval platforms or vessels or port infrastructure the target of terrorist attacks. Instead, maritime capabilities were merely used by militant groups to transport their supplies and personnel for land-based attacks. However, the possibility of future attacks on offshore targets cannot be discounted given the growing boldness of terrorist tactics. Notably, reports that Maldivian nationals are being trained by Pakistan-based militant groups demonstrate a potential catalyst for maritime terrorism in the Indian Ocean.

Complementing the latent maritime terrorist threat from Islamist extremist groups is the

REPORTS THAT MALDIVIAN NATIONALS ARE BEING TRAINED BY PAKISTAN-BASED MILITANT GROUPS DEMONSTRATE A POTENTIAL CATALYST FOR MARITIME TERRORISM IN THE INDIAN OCEAN.

June 2010

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ANTI-PIRACY OPERATIONS THREATEN TO DISPLACE THE PIRATE ATTACKS TO WATERS DEEPER IN THE INDIAN OCEAN RECURRENT THREAT: Captured Somalian pirates precedent already set by other insurgent groups that have well-established maritime terrorism capabilities. Until recently, the most significant source of maritime terrorism in South Asia emanated from the separatist insurgency of the Liberation Tigers of the Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka. The Tamil Tigers perfected the use of maritime warfare for use in terrorist attacks. The LTTE navy, known as the Sea Tigers, had been used to smuggle arms and attack government-run vessels and ports, as well as international merchant shipping. As recently as October 2008, the LTTE’s Black Sea Tiger suicide squad rammed explosives-laden boats against two merchant ships providing supplies to the government-held Jaffna Peninsula in northern Sri

Lanka. While the rebels’ naval capabilities have been neutralised following the loss of the LTTE’s territory, conventional military capabilities and senior leadership in May 2009, the group’s tactics remain a model to be emulated by other regional terrorist organisations.

Reports that the LTTE had provided training and arms to other South Asian insurgent groups, including the Naxalite insurgency are evidence of the LTTE’s ability to export its tactics. The fact that the LTTE retains a significant portion of overseas support base and funding mechanisms while insurgent remnants’ transition towards organised crime and mercenary activities creates the right ingredients for the export of LTTE tactics.

However, piracy represents a more imme-

GATEWAY TO TERROR? Terrorists infiltrated Mumbai by sea in November 2008

diate threat to offshore security than maritime terrorism. While the Indian coastline is geographically separated from the focal point for maritime piracy in the Gulf of Aden and waters off the coast of Somalia, this does not mitigate threats to India given the importance of these waterways to India’s trade. Approximately 25 Indian-owned merchant ships sail through the Gulf of Aden every month and Indian nationals account for 6 per cent of global seafarers. The threat to Indian interests from growing piracy incidents was most visibly illustrated in March 2009 when more than 100 Indian sailors were taken hostage after eight boats were hijacked in Somalian waters.

The growth in piracy incidents in the Gulf of Aden and off the coast of Somalia in 2009 with almost 200 piracy attempts, marking a 62 per cent increase over the previous year, has led the Indian Navy to step up operations in the region. This was most visibly demonstrated by the INS Tabar sinking a pirate “mothership” in the Gulf of Aden in November 2008.

Furthermore, growing international antipiracy operations off the coast of Somalia and in the Gulf of Aden threaten to displace the pirate attacks further from the Somali coastline to waters deeper in the Indian Ocean and potentially closer to India’s shores, as confirmed by the hijacking of a Turkish vessel in waters closer to India than Africa in March 2010. Reports that Pakistani nationals were apprehended in connection with the hijacking of a Russian vessel by Somali pirates in April 2009 also demonstrate potential collusion between African and South Asian insurgent groups.

At present, the most significant source of maritime piracy in the South Asia region is off the coast of Bangladesh where pirates are prone to targeting ships approaching and June 2010

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g COVERSTORY anchoring at Chittagong while seeking sanctuary in the Sunderbans region. Tactics remain crude compared to the more sophisticated measures being employed by pirates near the Gulf of Aden or in the Strait of Malacca, while pirates target relatively low-profile fishing vessels. However, this could change if pirate tactics grow more sophisticated with assistance from Bangladesh-based organised crime or terrorist groups. The recent string of arrests of operatives of Pakistan-based terrorist groups on Bangladeshi soil, coupled with the growing strategic importance of the Bay of Bengal as a source of offshore energy resources could lead the piracy threat to gain prominence unless prompt and coordinated action is taken by littoral states.

The maritime threat has traditionally not been a source of inter-state hostilities between India and Pakistan, which have instead focused on their land borders. However, another high-profile terrorist attack on Indian soil that is traced to arms or militants entering India via sea from Pakistan could lead the focal point of conflict shifting offshore. This is complemented by the poorly demarcated maritime boundaries in the region as evidenced by the frequent arrest of Indian and Pakistani fishermen, which has been exasperated by a maritime territorial dispute over Sir Creek in the Rann of Kutch marshlands. With attacks on India by Pakistan-based terrorist groups having expanded beyond Kashmir into the Indian heartland, militants are increasingly infiltrating from routes other than the Line of Control in Kashmir, including across the Rann of Kutch coastline along Sindh-Gujarat border.

A longer term inter-state threat facing India emanates from China’s growing presence in the Indian Ocean. The deployment of

NEED FOR CONSTANT VIGIL: A navy training exercise in progress PLAN vessels in the Indian Ocean has turned the hypothetical debate over China’s blue water naval ambitions into a reality. While the decision by the PLAN to join the Shared Awareness and Deconfliction (Shade) naval taskforce has brought China into the multilateral framework of protecting sea-lines of communication (SLOCs) in the western Indian Ocean, it has also expanded China’s mandate in the Indian Ocean. The hijacking of the Chinese cargo ship, De Xin Hai, in October 2009, the first Chinese vessel to be hijacked since the deployment of the PLAN taskforce, has further empowered the PLAN presence in the Indian Ocean.

China has made its naval power projection goals increasingly transparent while shielding this under the rhetoric of maintaining “Harmonious Seas”. China’s 2008 Defence White paper noted that the PLAN will “gradually

CITY UNDER SIEGE: Mumbai attacks provided a glaring example of maritime terrorism

develop its capabilities for conducting operations in distant waters and countering nontraditional security threats”. Complementing its growing ambitions are the PLAN’s growing capabilities — over the last decade the PLAN has acquired some 30 submarines and 22 surface ships while it has ambitions to acquire an aircraft carrier fleet by 2020. While these platforms focus primarily on deterring US intervention in a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, it could over the long-term be used to expand China’s sea-denial capabilities in other regions, including the Strait of Malacca and Indian Ocean. The growing boldness of PLAN manoeuvres in the East and South China seas in recent months is a possible sign of things to come in the Indian Ocean.

Meanwhile, China’s investment in Sri Lanka’s port infrastructure, including the Colombo South Harbour Development Project and

THERE ARE CONCERNS IN BOTH INDIA AND THE UNITED STATES THAT SRI LANKA MAY EMERGE AS A STAGE OF GEOPOLITICAL RIVALRY June 2010

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THE NAVY WAS DESIGNATED THE CENTRAL AUTHORITY, RESPONSIBLE FOR SECURITY OF THE COASTLINE

China has provided preferential loans at subsidised rates in addition to investment in strategically and symbolically important infrastructure projects. China-Sri Lanka bilateral trade has grown fivefold between 2006 and 2008 while China has replaced Japan as Sri Lanka’s leading aid donor. In addition to its economic assistance China also provided crucial diplomatic support to Sri Lanka, blocking attempts by the European Union to table a resolution at the UN Security Council criticising the Sri Lankan government’s conduct in its offensive against the Tamil Tigers, as well as defeating an EU motion against Sri Lanka for war crimes investigations at the UN Human Rights Council. China was also able to supply offensive armaments to the Sri Lankan

Despite delays in procuring some naval platforms, such as the Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov (INS Vikramaditya), India has stepped up the indigenous development of naval platforms; including (Advanced Technology Vessel) nuclear-powered submarines; and “stealth” frigates, as well as developing a submarine-launched supersonic missile that modifies its BrahMos cruise missile.

With respect to power projection, India has established a listening post in northern Madagascar in addition to developing the Andaman and Nicobar Islands as a strategic post and deploying coastal radars in the Maldives. The Indian Navy has demonstrated its role in ensuring regional maritime security through its high-profile operations, including

SECURING THE WATERS: Indian Navy personnel during a sea exercise the Hambantota port project has revived the debate over China’s ‘string of pearls’ strategy of constructing ports along strategicallyimportant waterways. China’s growing interests in Sri Lanka emulate existing Chinesefunded port projects at Gwadar in Pakistan, Marao in the Maldives, and Sittwe in Myanmar (Burma) and complement ambitions to develop overseas supply bases. The Rajapaksa government in Colombo has stepped up engagement with non-traditional donors such as China as the west has voiced criticism over the government’s human rights record while threatening to curtail aid and investment support.

military in its campaign against the Tamil Tigers, which traditional ally India was unable to do, given domestic political considerations.

This has prompted concerns in both India and the United States, as noted by a report from the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee that noted the potential for Sri Lanka to emerge as a stage of geopolitical rivalry.

The growth of these conventional and nonconventional maritime security threats has come as India has continued to pursue its own aggressive naval power modernisation strategy. The Indian Navy currently has 34 warships and six submarines on order to ensure that its force levels do not fall below 140 vessels.

its participation in the multi-nation anti-piracy operations off the coast of Somalia since 2008, and humanitarian assistance for Myanmar (Burma) following Cycle Nargis in May 2008 and for countries devastated by the Indian Ocean tsunami in December 2004. India is part of multiple bilateral and multilateral naval exercises, including with the United States (Malabar), Russia (Indra), France (Varuna), the United Kingdom (Konkan), and the multilateral Milan naval exercises. The 2010 US Quadrennial Defense Review has noted: “As its military capabilities grow, India will contribute to Asia as a net provider of security in the Indian Ocean and beyond.”

June 2010

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ON THEIR GUARD: A Navy helicopter during a security drill However, the terrorist attacks in Mumbai in November 2008 brought India’s maritime security needs ‘closer to home’ by highlighting deficiencies in coastal defence and surveillance amid the need to protect some 200 ports across its 7,500km coastline. In an attempt to develop a more integrated approach to coastal security the navy was designated the central authority responsible for security of the coastline following the Mumbai attacks. This has entailed the establishment of joint operation centres (JOCs) in four locations, which are jointly manned and operated by the navy, coast guard and state and central agencies and the development of a new coastal command to oversee the Coastal Security Scheme, which was unveiled by the Home Ministry in 2005. Improvements have also been made to coastal surveillance through such initiatives as upgrading radar coverage, creating additional

INDIA, CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES HAVE A SHARED INTEREST IN MAINTAINING OPEN SEA LANES

coastguard stations and installing electronic sea fences around the country’s naval harbours as part of the Integrated Harbour Defence System. These initiatives are bringing about a slow but steady improvement in the country’s coastline defence.

The growing strategic importance of the Indian Ocean through which half of the world’s maritime traffic and two-thirds of the world’s oil shipments transit requires a coordinated approach by littoral and extra-regional states, especially given the growth of illicit activities, including piracy, and arms, narcotics and people trafficking. The threenation Malacca Straits Patrols in Southeast Asia played a prominent role quelling the piracy threat in the South China Sea and a similar model would be beneficial for the Indian Ocean. Former foreign secretary Shiv Shankar Menon indicated support for such an initiative with a proposal for a ‘Maritime Concert’ in which the region’s major maritime powers would have collective responsibility to protect the Indian Ocean from non-traditional security threats.

At present the region is plagued by multiple overlapping forums to tackle issues of maritime security, including the South Asia Regional Port Security Cooperative (SARPSCO); the Regional Cooperation Agreement on Combating Piracy and Armed Robbery against Ships in Asia (ReCAAP) and the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS). The competing nature of these forums is in part a reflection of the climate of mistrust that pervades the region amid the persistence of underlying inter-state rivalries.

For instance, despite the ongoing rapprochement with the United States, India remains reluctant to sacrifice its strategic autonomy by embedding itself into the US maritime security architecture. This has accounted for the Indian government’s lukewarm public support for US multilateral initiatives such as the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) and “Thousand Ship Navy”. While India is party to several US-led maritime security frameworks such as the International Ship and Port Facility Security Code (ISPS) and the Container Security Initiative (CSI), its compliance has been patchy. Reservations continue to be expressed over the presence of US customs officials on Indian soil under the terms of the ISPS initiative. Similarly, despite being praised for its role in the interception of a North Korean vessel Mu San near the Andaman Nicobar Islands in August 2009, India remains reluctant to join the PSI amid concerns that the provisions of the initiative against “states of proliferation concern” could one day be used against India.

Ultimately, regional powers, including India, China and the United States have a shared interest in maintaining open sea lanes through the Indian Ocean, given the strategic importance of these waterways as transit points for growing trade and resource imports. However, despite the rhetoric of shared interests, a climate of mistrust continues to permeate the region. This has been exasperated by the shifting regional power dynamics rooted in the relative decline of the United States. This, in turn, has undermined the traditional US role of a guarantor of regional security, which is creating a strategic void on issues related to securing the Global Commons, including securing Sea Lines of Communication (SLOC). Simultaneously, the global economic downturn and its confirmation of the shift in the world’s productive and economic capacity eastwards have inadvertently made the strategic rivalries in the east, including the Sino-Indian relationship, of greater importance to the international system. As China and India’s overseas interests grow, the importance of securing regional trade routes will increase as well, setting the stage for a deepened rivalry on the Indian Ocean in the absence of confidence-building and strategic cooperation.

(The writer is a South Asia Analyst at Control Risks, a London-based political and security consultancy. He has also worked with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC, and the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies) June 2010

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DIVE FOR DETERRENCE The imperative for India’s sea-based nuclear deterrence fleet arises due to rapid developments in offensive missile capabilities of other countries. W LAWRENCE S PRABHAKAR takes a close look at India’s aspirations to build a formidable blue-water navy.

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June 2010

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T

HE MAGNITUDE of India’s technological achievement (though belated) reflects the cumulative progress registered in the related areas of submarine design, power propulsion, silo-housing of ballistic missiles on board, synchronization of ‘cold launch’ of ballistic missiles while submerged, in addition to the development of navigational and targeting capabilities, all of which constitute the major areas of India’s sea-based submerged nuclear deterrence.

In the architecture of nuclear deterrence and nuclear deployments, the pivotal strengths lie in the operationalization of the nuclear warfare doctrines that aid and stabilize deterrence. Given the nature of surprise, stealth, speed and strike lethality of nuclear weapons in a first strike mode, the defending state that receives the first strike ought to develop credibility, survivability and adequate retaliatory capability that reassure the defending state as also signal the first strike aggressor state of the intense capabilities of the defending state of launching untold damage in a

retaliatory strike that could even wipe out the existence of the aggressor state. However, states that subscribe to a No-First-Use of nuclear weapons ought to build superior capabilities of dispersing their nuclear assets into relative levels of invulnerability to a decapitating first strike that may attempt to destroy all retaliatory capability of the defending state. It is in this context that nuclear deterrence began to evolve in the 1960s into a triad of nuclear weapons that has landlaunched, air-launched and submarinelaunched legs of nuclear deterrence.

With the development of sea-based nuclear deterrence, two operational platforms and operational doctrines have evolved. The primary doctrine is the capability to launch ballistic missiles from submerged positions of a submarine with the guidance provided by the constellation of navigation satellites that could accurately direct the targeting capabilities of the missiles.

Yet another operational platform that could deliver sea-based nuclear-tipped missiles is ship-launched cruise missiles

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(SLCMs) that are air-breathing vehicles with no endo-atmospheric or exo-atmospheric pathways but travel within the earth. These missiles are launched from modified nuclear submarines of the attack or the ballistic type known as SSGNs (Ship Submersible GuidedNuclear). Thus the variants of ballistic and cruise missile submarines are premier seabased platforms that could carry nuclear deterrence at sea and are quite known for their relative invulnerability.

On the other hand, the contending doctrine of sea-based deterrence is the anti-submarine warfare capabilities of nuclear attack submarines SSNs (Ship Submersible NuclearAttack) that would trail and target the relatively invulnerable ballistic missile submarines SSBNs (Ship Submersible Ballistic-Nuclear) or the nuclear cruise missile submarines SSGNs (Ship Submersible Guided-Nuclear) in their patrol stations.

Sea-based deterrence is operationalised on the following doctrinal-operational concepts, which are common to all nuclear powers that have this capability: The primary capability of sea-based nuclear deterrence platforms is responsiveness. SSBNs are all-weather platforms tailored for prompt global strike and response to any threats at a minimum notice. Given their stealth movements and disposition, SSBNs are immune to preemptive strike with a higher degree of survivability. This enhances the credible, assured response of the deterrent.

Sea-based nuclear deterrence is primed on flexibility. The SSBNs and SSGNs are well known for the high degree of their inherent stealth nature which provides them a robust flexibility in deployment. SSBNs, SSGNs and SSNs have operational capabilities of high speed underwater and the sustained stealth nature of their movement to reach the desired launch area in the least possible time enabling them for quick redeployment for omni-directional targeting.

Operational deployment of SSBNs and SSGNs is pivoted on survivability that enables the boats to launch the missiles and escape the launch area in the quickest possible getaway to a safe haven. This critical capability is the sinew of the SSBNs since they are subject to detection and localization for destruction by anti-submarine warfare forces.

Submergence and underwater patrols constitute the basis of the invulnerability of the SSBNs that aids the endurance of the platform. Its nuclear power propulsion and its ability to sustain power for its operations fortifies the platform for longer durations of June 2010

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CROWNING GLORY: President Pratibha Devisingh Patil on the deck of the submarine, INS Sindhudhvaj in Vishakhapatnam submergence than the conventional dieselelectric and even the newer generation of AIP (Air-Independent Propulsion) submarines As submerged platforms, SSBNs, SSGNs and SSNs have enduring connectivity. With acoustic energy as the most viable source for underwater communications, connectivity for the submerged boats is materialised through electro-magnetic waves of low frequency (VLF) and extra low frequency (ELF) which offer an effective, reliable, robust, and survivable communication between the shore/command platform and the submarine, maintaining silence and submergence.

Readiness constitutes the state of primacy in the operations of the SSBNs, SSGNs and SSNs. The crew is primed for high levels of physical, mental and psychological endurance so as to perform long duration underwater tasks with utmost zeal and perfection/precision. Readiness signifies the capability of the SSBNs to be alert and ready at all times to launch weapons or shift areas of deployment at short notice.

These operational concepts and features constitute the essence of the sea-based submerged nuclear deterrence that has been built and improved upon over the years. The global naval order of battle of nuclear submarines can be enumerated as follows.

The United States currently operates 14 ballistic missile submarines, as out of its original stockpile of 18 boats, four have been converted into cruise missile submarines. It also operates 53 nuclear attack submarines.

Russia operates 12 ballistic missile submarines, keeping four in reserve, besides operating 12 nuclear attack submarines and three nuclear guided missile submarines.

France operates four nuclear ballistic missile submarines and six nuclear attack submarines, while the United Kingdom operates

four ballistic missile submarines and seven nuclear attack submarines. China currently operates two ballistic missile submarines and two nuclear attack submarines, besides operating eight other ballistic and attack submarines of the older class.

India’s need for a sea-based nuclear deterrence is structured on and rationalised by highly important considerations. As a subcontinental power with an entitlement of 7516 km of maritime boundary, India has a subcontinental geographic maritime boundary and extensive territory almost equal to its landmass, viz. 2.9 million sq km. Its maritime territory coupled with the sea-space of the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal and the adjoining Indian Ocean provides India with a vast maritime theatre for its sea-based nuclear deterrence and its fleet of nuclear submarines.

The strategic stipulation of India’s nuclear doctrine (Indian Nuclear Doctrine IND 1999) is articulated in para 2.1 of the doctrine: “India’s strategic interests require effective credible nuclear deterrent and adequate retaliatory capability should deterrence fail.” Further, Paras 4.1 to 4.3 state that “credibility”, “effectiveness” and “survivability” are the cardinal principles under which India’s nuclear deterrent will function. It warrants that any nuclear strike on India must result in a retaliatory strike by India to inflict decisive damage on the attacker, which necessitates the instant availability of an assured retaliatory capability coupled with unfailing credibility and survivability, subsuming the other operational benchmarks of “responsiveness”, “flexibility”, “endurance”, “connectivity” and “readiness”.

The Indian Maritime Doctrines 2004, 2007, 2009 have emphatically reiterated the strategic desiderata for India’s sea-based nuclear deterrence capabilities and the naval order of battle of fleets of nuclear ballistic

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and attack submarines. It is essential that with the deployment of fleets of SSBNs, the need for securing the fleets of SSBNs by the accompanying escorts of fleets of SSNs is duly recognized and urgently attended to in national interest.

The fact that the Indian Ocean is a maritime basin that often has the nuclear-powered submarines of the US, Russia, UK, France and China in patrol stations or in transit indicates that fleets of foreign nuclear ballistic submarines and nuclear-guided missile submarines almost always remain in constant vicinity of India.

The imperative for India’s sea-based nuclear deterrence fleet arises due to rapid developments in offensive missile capabilities of the NWS, especially of the United States and also of China. The increasing levels of accuracy of the ballistic missiles and the prospect of the deployment of MIRVs (Multiple Independently Targeted Reentry Vehicles) could entail a successful strike, decapitating/destroying all of India’s land-based missiles including the dedicated Fighter Ground Attack Aircraft for nuclear missions that India deploys. Such an ominous scenario may materialise either by a successful Chinese-Pakistani coordinated strike or (for that matter) a hostile United States in a hypothetical in-extremis situation in an unforeseeable future might even decide to utilize the Global Prompt Strike system to target India’s land and air nuclear assets by employing high-performance strike missiles fitted with conventional munitions in a first strike. Deploying India’s sea-based nuclear deterrent thus becomes the only option to prevent India’s nuclear assets from being targeted by such hostile strikes and to ensure that India retains an instant retaliatory capability to beat back the attackers.

India’s aspirations to build a formidable blue-water navy and to emerge as an aweinspiring naval power could come to fruition only with the strategic deployment of its fleets of nuclear ballistic and attack submarines.

This postulate gains momentum in the context of a fiercely emerging naval rivalry between India and China and is validated by the fact that China is aggressively engaged in projects of developing fleets of nuclear submarines (Project 094 Jin class) and attack submarines (Project 093H Shang class). The Project 094 Jin class deploys the 10,000 KM JL-2 SLBMs with a sweeping coverage of the entire territory of India; while the Project 093H Shang class could unleash its deadly Land Attack Cruise Missiles of the DH-10 nuclear variant to target India’s extensive littoral studded with high-profile economic, industrial and strategic targets. The imperative for a seaJune 2010

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g IN-DEPTH based counterforce capability for India thus emerges to be a crucial requirement.

India’s efforts towards development of its fleets of ballistic and (keenly desired) guided missile submarines have met with several setbacks. Its attempt to build the first three boats of the Advanced Technology Vessel (ATV) with Russian collaboration has met with a mixed success, plagued, as it has been, by technical hurdles/problems and delayed over a long span of time.

With the launch of INS Arihant, India has undoubtedly achieved an initial level of platform capability, though the tantalizing tasks of packaging and integrating missiles and extended sea-trails still remain pending. INS Arihant is a platform with a length of 110 metres, beam of 11 metres, and draught of 9 metres. With a surface speed of 15 knots and a submerged speed of 24 knots, it has a diving depth of 300 metres. It weighs 6000 tonnes and is powered by nuclear-powered 80MW pressurized water reactor (PWR), backed by a steam turbine 1x47000 hp. The PWR was developed by the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre with assistance from the Russian Rubin Naval Design Bureau (probably also associated with the Chinese Project 093 H Chang class).

The structural design of INS Arihant displays an uneven exterior with the hull placed on a mat covered with tiles. The tiles are used for the purpose of improving stealth as they absorb sound waves. Unconventional in its location, the conning tower of Arihant is situated near the bow instead of the centre. The central part of the submarine’s body consists of the outer hull and an inner pressurized hull.

The starboard side consists of two rectangular vents that draw in water when the submarine submerges in the sea.

INS Arihant’s main armament at the moment is the K-15 submarine-launched ballistic missile with a range of 750 km. A complement of 12 such missiles is kept on board.

With India’s successful tests of Agni-3 and Agni-5 missiles, their possible naval version of K-XX missiles with a range exceeding 3500 km could hopefully find deployment in the near future. Besides the SLBMs, the Arihant is capable of using other assorted weaponry to fully cover the entire range of anti-ship and landattack cruise missiles and torpedoes. The possibility of the Brahmos being packed into the Arihant is also not ruled out, which would further equip the platform with a formidable offensive capability.

An Arihant class fleet of 4-6 boats equipped with the K-XX missiles of longer ranges would be India’s most viable option for its nuclear deterrence. To boost Arihant’s prowess of

MAKING A POINT: Navy chief Admiral Nirmal Verma deterrence, the lease-purchase of the two Russian Akula class attack submarines could play a vital role. The training of the crew of both Akula and Arihant for proper operationalisation of the fleet must be completed by 2011 when the submarines are expected to attain initial operational capability (IOC).

Several issues and challenges require to be adequately addressed in order to satisfy the desiderata of credibility and capability of an Arihant class fleet of submarines. With a rapid proliferation of Chinese fleets of ballistic and attack submarines, India faces a huge challenge to safeguard its nuclear assets from the Chinese submarine-launched nuclear-tipped ballistic and cruise missile attacks. In short, there are three major issues and challenges that India needs to address urgently. They are the imperatives of the submarine’s deployment in relation to the doctrinal imperatives; the operational challenges of its deployment in terms of the areas of deployment and the patrol stations; and the nature of the missile packages meant to sustain and enhance the boat’s lethal offensive power.

India’s nuclear doctrine vouchsafes a strong advocacy for having an assured retaliatory capability as a countermeasure to checkmate nuclear threats from Pakistan and China that present two-front coordinated strikes from a wide assortment of land-based ballistic missiles targeting the entire territory of India.

The doctrinal imperative therefore warrants that India’s retaliatory capability should be sea-based that provides certitude and reassurance for India in the event of Pakistani nuclear first strike backed by China. Deploying the Arihant’s K-XX missiles in such an eventuality would be an effective deterrent to Beijing, thus preventing its coordination with Islamabad.

India has to contend with several operational challenges in the deployment of the Ari-

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hant. The first challenge would be the operational safety of the nuclear equipment onboard India’s indigenously built nuclear submarines, which incidentally happens to be a common challenge for all nuclear powers that include the United States, Russia, China, France and UK. Some of the daunting technological challenges include frequent breakdowns of vital equipment, radiation leaks, and radioactive stuff spilled into the sea. The operational challenge of connectivity is no less daunting, since it takes time and strenuous efforts to develop proven capabilities of network-centric operations involving the conventional and nuclear platforms as also the three-tier aspect of command, control, and communication related to these submarines.

Last but not the least is the challenge of the Arihant fleet being hunted by the ASW forces of the PLAN and the western navies leading to serious incidents and accidents at sea.

Notwithstanding these daunting challenges and imperatives, the deployment of the Arihant has become inevitable as India has to contend against a whole array of omni-directional and ever-present nuclear threats from hostile quarters. As the Arihant and the Akula fleets train and sail, the operational art of India’s sea-based nuclear deterrence would be synergized. A synergy of this magnitude would adequately address the issues of India’s strategic stability vis-à-vis China and signal the nuclear weapon states of the irrelevance of branding India as a non-nuclear weapon state under the tottering facade of an already fractured nuclear non-proliferation regime.

In a fair summation of the discussion, it can be said that the quest for India’s sea-based nuclear deterrence has come to fruition after nearly 24 years of zealous efforts though plagued by delays, bureaucratic obstacles, technological hurdles, and the difficulties it has to contend with in harnessing the dimensions of design and propulsion. As against the progress of the US, Soviet and Chinese nuclear submarine programmes, it took India over two decades to master the initial operating capabilities which could be attributed to the level of defence industrialisation taking place in the country. All said, the quest as well as the attainment of the capability of sea-based deterrence by India represents a substantial technological leap that testifies to its technological acumen and to its firm resolve to defend its precious assets. India’s sea-based deterrence in the shape of an Arihant fleet is the culmination of translating the concept of a minimum deterrence into reality.

(The author is Associate Professor, Madras Christian College, Chennai) June 2010

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With China leaving India way behind in ballistic missile programme, our foremost national security priority should be the development and operational fielding of Agni-I, Agni-II and AgniIII missiles, writes GURMEET KANWAL.

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UCLEAR-TIPPED ballistic missiles and conventional ballistic and cruise missiles have for long been acknowledged as the new currency of power. China has about 1,000 conventional ballistic missiles aimed perpetually at Taiwan and, since these are mostly mobile, large numbers could be diverted to the India-Tibet border in the event of another border conflict. Tomahawk cruise missiles were launched by the United States (US) in large numbers in Kosovo, Iraq and Afghanistan. While the number of ballistic missiles in global arsenals has declined considerably since the end of the Cold War, the number of nations possessing them has increased. At present, 35 countries are known to possess missiles with ranges exceeding 150 km.

Renowned defence analyst K. Subrahmanyam is of the view that while nuclear weapons are largely unusable as weapons of war, missiles are usable and that the development of Agni and other such missiles is useful for India.

“The NATO campaign (in Kosovo) is proof that missiles would be standard equipment for war and deterrence in future and, therefore, they are as much part of a country’s defences as aircraft, tanks and guns,” he opines. In this field China is well ahead of India and, since India has carried out only limited tests of the Agni-I and Agni-II missiles, the ‘missile gap’ appears to be growing.

Outside the N-5 countries — Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States — India’s ballistic missile programme is the most advanced. In its range, depth and sophistication, India’s missile development programme is far superior to similar programmes of Iran, North Korea and Pakistan and other nuclear wannabe states. The Defence June 2010

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PRITHVI HAD NOT BEEN BUILT TO CARRY FLOWERS: The famous statement of APJ Abdul Kalam, the Scientific Advisor to the Defence Minister at the time of the 1998 tests

Agni IRBMs The Agni missile series consist of following missiles: Agni-TD/TTB (Technology Demonstrator/ Technology Test Bed), two stage, solid booster and liquid fuelled second stage.

Agni-I (A-1) — SRBM (850-km range, 1,000 kg payload), single stage, solid fuel, road and rail mobile.

Agni-II (A-2) — IRBM (3,300-km range, 1,000 kg payload), two stage, solid fuel, road and rail mobile.

Agni-II (A-2 AT) — IRBM (3,900-km range, 1000 kg payload), improved A-2 variant using more advanced and lighter material, two stage, solid fuel, road and rail mobile.

Agni-III — MRBM (5,500-8,000-km range, 1500 kg payload), two stage, solid fuel, road and rail mobile.

Agni-IV — ICBM (12,000+km range, 1500 kg payload), three stage, solid fuel, road and rail mobile.

Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) had launched the Integrated Guided Missile Development Programme (IGMDP) in 1983 comprising a basket of five missiles and their variants. While the Prithvi and the Agni series of ballistic missiles were meant to be strategic delivery systems, the Trishul (short range) and Akash (medium range) missiles are air defence SAMs and the Nag is an anti-tank guided missile (ATGM). Of these, the Prithvi and Agni series of missiles have been extremely successful. Bharat Dynamics Limited (BDL), Hyderabad, manufactures Prithvi and Agni missiles and is reported to have the capacity to manufacture 18 missiles per year.

Several tests of the Agni missile have failed to meet the laid-down technical parameters. As late as May and November 2009, the Agni-II missile failed during user tests, including a night firing test. Clearly, additional tests are still required and must be undertaken in an early time frame.

According to a news report, both Agni-II and Agni-III are to be tested again in 2010.

The Prithvi SRBM is a single stage, dual engine, liquid fuelled, road-mobile, shortrange ballistic missile which was first tested in 1988. The missile has a length of 9 metres, a diameter of 1.1 metres and a weight of 4,000 kg. The thrust is innovatively configured so that multiple ranges can be achieved. Prithvi has a distinctive design, using strap-down inertial guidance system and a unique gyro system. Its navigation

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system guides it to the target with a CEP (Circular Error Probable) equal to 0.01 per cent of its range. Some reports have suggested that the guidance system also includes GPS inputs.

At present the SS-250 is reportedly the only variant being produced at Bharat Dynamics Limited, Hyderabad, for both the Army and the Air Force. The Prithvi missile can carry a variety of conventional warheads such as high-explosive, pre-fragmented explosives, bomblets, incendiary, cluster munitions, sub-munitions and fuelair explosives. Mr. APJ Abdul Kalam, the Scientific Advisor to the Defence Minister at the time of the 1998 tests, has stated famously that the Prithvi had not been built to carry flowers. However, Mr. K. Santhanam, Project Director for the Pokhran-II tests, has said that the Prithvi was never meant to carry nuclear warheads under normal circumstances.

The BrahMos supersonic cruise missile (Mach 2.8 to 3.0), with a precision strike capability, very high kill energy, a 200-kg warhead and range of 290 km, has been inducted into the Army. The induction function for the Block-I version was held in July 2007. Since then, the Block-II version has successfully completed trials. It is a versatile missile that can be launched from TATRA mobile launchers and silos on land, aircraft and ships and, perhaps in future, also from submarines. 50 BrahMos missiles are expected to be produced every year.

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Test Dates AGNI-1

AGNI-2

AGNI-3

22 May 1989

11 Apr 99

09 Jul 06

29 May 1992

17 Jan 01

12 Apr 07

19 Feb 1994

29 Aug 04

07 May 08

24 Oct 2007

19 May 09

22 Mar 2008

23 Nov 09 17 May 10

IN THE FIELD OF BALLISTIC MISSILES, CHINA IS WELL AHEAD OF INDIA AND, SINCE INDIA HAS CARRIED OUT ONLY LIMITED TESTS OF THE AGNI-I AND AGNI-II MISSILES, THE ‘MISSILE GAP’ APPEARS TO BE GROWING

Prithvi variants Three separate Prithvi missile variants have been developed for the Army, the Navy and the Air Force, as under: Prithvi I, SS-150: Army Version (150km range with a payload of 1,000 kg.)

Prithvi II, SS-250: Air Force Version (295 km range with a payload of 500-kg.)

Prithvi III (Sagarika, Dhanush): Naval Version (350 km range with a payload of 500-kg.) The Prithvi-III missile has been tested from surface ships (Dhanush) as well as from a submerged pontoon (Sagarika).

Efforts are underway to further increase its strike range. BrahMos Aerospace has orders worth Rs 3,500 crore from the Army and the Navy, which has opted for the antiship as well as the land attack cruise missile (LACM) versions. The IAF will induct these missiles in 2012. These terrain hugging missiles are virtually immune to counter-measures due to their high speed and very low radar cross section and are far superior to sub-sonic cruise missiles like Pakistan’s Babur. Chile, Kuwait, Malaysia and South Africa have shown interest in acquiring this missile.

A 1999 RAND report had stated that India lacks the capability to launch effective missile strikes against China and is incapable of withstanding a nuclear first strike by China.

The report, entitled “From Testing to Deploying Nuclear Forces: The Hard Choices Facing India and Pakistan”, observed:

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“India has an ‘unready force’, is vulnerable to a first strike, does not have the means to detect enemy ballistic missiles in flight, and does not have a command, control and intelligence structure that is resistant to an attack aimed at decapitating India’s civilian leadership.” Around the same time, the New York Times had reported in a front-page article: “China possesses roughly 20 missiles that could reach American shores and perhaps 300 nuclear weapons aboard medium-range missiles or bombers that could hit India, Russia and Japan.”

While China’s aim is clearly to build up Pakistan as a strategic ally to countervail India in Southern Asia, North Korea’s interests are primarily monetary in nature. Pakistan’s testing of North Korean missiles also enables North Korea to validate its partially tested systems at Pakistan’s cost without inviting international opprobrium and the pressure of sanctions. Using designs of foreign origin, Pakistan is engaged in pursuing both the liquid and solid fuel routes to develop its indigenous ballistic missile capability. Clearly, India is at a major disadvantage and it is imperative that the foremost national security priority should currently be the development and operational fielding of Agni-I, Agni-II and Agni-III ballistic missiles (to a range of 5,000-km plus to cover all likely targets in China), followed by SLBMs and an ICBMs with a global reach to cater for future threats. Till such time as these missiles become fully operational, India’s nuclear deterrent will continue to lack credibility, especially against China.

It is indeed remarkable that India has designed, developed and manufactured a fairly sophisticated range of ballistic missiles despite having been subjected to technology denial regimes for many decades.

However, India’s IRBMs have been inducted into service after only a limited number of flight tests. Additional tests of the Agni series of missiles should continue — both to inspire confidence among the users manning these missiles and to enhance the credibility of India’s nuclear deterrence by showcasing their technological maturity and accuracy of delivery. India must step up efforts to acquire ICBMs for long-range deterrence against possible future adversaries. The Indian ICBM programme, which can benefit from the PSLV and GSLV, polar and geo-stationary series of satellite launch vehicles, needs to be given the highest R&D priority.

(The writer is Director, Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS), New Delhi) June 2010

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TERROR INC Lashkar-e-Taiba, founded by Hafiz Saeed, is gradually getting out of the control of Pakistan to emerge as a multinational organisation

PROSPERING TOGETHER

AT THE CROSSROADS

TIME IS UP!

Taiwan has embarked upon the path to cosy up with other countries

Nepal is passing through a period of uncertainty

The US in Afghanistan has to act fast in bringing lasting peace

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AMBASSADOR’SJOURNAL

LET’S CO-PROSPER!

Pursuing a policy of ‘flexible diplomacy’, Taiwan has embarked upon the path to forge cordial ties with both mainland China and India, writes JOHNNY CHIANG.

STANDING BY SUFFERING HUMANITY: Taiwan flew in 10 tonnes of relief supplies to Haiti

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AIWAN PLAYS a crucial role in both the Asia-Pacific and global economies having scripted a success story, which is widely lauded as a model for development. In response to the challenges of globalisation and regional integration, we endeavour to engage the international community in a spirit of conciliation and cooperation, reciprocity and co-prosperity, eschewing confrontational Cold War thinking. We aspire to bring lasting peace and well-being to the Asia-Pacific region and the world.

TOWARDS GOOD GOVERNANCE: The Taiwan Government Building Since ROC President Ma Ying-jeou came to office in May 2008, his administration has been striving to catalyse conciliation between Taiwan and mainland China in conjunction with a policy of “flexible diplomacy”. These efforts have already borne fruits. The warming-up sentiment between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait not only has improved their relations and greatly relaxed tensions, but also enabled them to join hands in developing their economies and improving the lives of their peoples.

Besides ending vicious competition in the international arena, Taiwan’s flexible diplomacy has boosted its ability to pragmatically advance relations with all countries, and take part in international organisations.

Now, it is in a better position to share with the world, its strengths and experience in economic development.

For instance, when a strong earthquake devastated Taiwan’s diplomatic partner Haiti earlier this year, a rescue team from Taiwan was among the first to reach the disasterstruck area. Apart from donating US$ 16 million in cash and materials, Taiwan is also setting up medical and vocational training centres, and providing 1,200 prefabricated homes for the disaster victims. These actions have won the international community’s praise.

The cosying up cross-strait relations are acting as a force multiplier in Taiwan’s relations with other rising Asian powers. Taiwan’s Premier Wu has recently identified India and Indonesia as the new focal points of investment and trade. Taiwan’s relations with India,

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an emerging Asian power and a key member of G20 emerging economies and BRIC forum, have shown a steady upswing in the last few years. Wu has remarked that while India has a population of more than 1 billion, Taiwan’s bilateral trade volume with the south Asian giant has remained relatively low. Taipei has now set an ambitious target to scale up its bilateral trade from the current $5 billion to $10 billion in the next five years.

The ongoing Asian resurgence has caught the imagination of Taiwan’s ruling class. The

THE AUTHOR: Johny Chiang, Information Minister, Taiwan has penned this piece for GEOPOLITICS

June 2010

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AMBASSADOR’SJOURNAL Executive Yuan recently approved a plan to spend NT$ 5.479 billion (US$ 174.5 million) over the next three years to help domestic enterprises tap emerging markets. Under the “Project to Promote Top Quality and Fair Priced Products in Emerging Markets” presented to the Cabinet by the Ministry of Economic Affairs, government agencies will encourage investment in various areas, ranging from innovative research and development, production technology to brand development and product design.

Reflecting this resurgence of interest in India, the second fastest-growing economy in the world, in September last year, 184 Taiwanese companies participated in the threeday trade business-to-business show called ‘TIITRONICS India 2009’, held in Chennai. Taiwan is expecting 250 companies for the same event this year. Top Taiwanese companies like HTC, Acer, D-Link and BenQ have acquired a distinct brand profile in India. Not many know it, but Taiwan’s CEC, an infrastrucutre giant, is one of the contractors of the Delhi Metro. CEC is now constructing the metro system in Bangalore. Taiwanese companies are keen to invest in many areas in India, especially in agro-based business, like food processing and agriculture.

The response from the Indian business has been enthusiastic, to say the least. Premier Wu has taken the lead to encourage Taiwanese investment in India. Given its abundant software design talent and huge market size, India is well-worth investing in, Wu said. He has instructed the Taiwan External Development Council, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Overseas Compatriot Affairs Commission and National Science Council to work in tandem to step up assessment and planning efforts and put forward a concrete initiative regarding investment.

The economic logic is also driving Taiwan to diversify its markets. Premier Wu said that in order to avoid overdependence on a single market, the government should step up efforts to lower investment risk, quell public concerns about inking an cross-strait economic cooperation framework agreement, and help local businesses make inroads into other major emerging markets, namely India and Indonesia.

Further, besides having effectively contained the spread of H1N1 influenza in Taiwan during the recent flu pandemic — posting a mortality rate only one-third of that of OECD countries-we will donate Taiwanmade vaccines worth US$ 5 million to countries in need. At the invitation of the World Health Organization (WHO), this May, Taiwan will, for the second time, attend the

annual meeting of the World Health Assembly. This will provide us opportunities to participate in global disease prevention efforts and jointly uplift international medical and public health standards.

In the same spirit of sharing, Taiwan seeks to participate in the activities of other agencies in the United Nations system, including those of the U.N. International Civil Aviation Organisation and the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change. We look forward to receive the same international support as accorded to us in our efforts to participate in WHO activities, so that we may more effectively share our considerable resources.

After the past two years’ global economic turmoil, Taiwan’s economy is steadily recovering, thanks to our people’s efforts and our government’s timely stimuli along with an improving global economy. Since the beginning of 2010, Taiwan’s stock and real estate markets have flourished, consumer spending risen, and export orders reached record highs.

The International Monetary Fund, mean-

TAIWAN’S CEC, AN INFRASTRUCUTRE GIANT, IS ONE OF THE CONTRACTORS OF THE DELHI METRO. IT IS NOW CONSTRUCTING THE METRO SYSTEM IN BANGALORE while, has forecast that our GDP will grow by 6.5 per cent this year. These and other indicators show that policies pursued by the Ma administration have seen us through the global financial tsunami and the ensuing economic crisis, in good shape.

Building on the nation’s numerous strengths, by 2016, our government will invest around NT$ 4 trillion (more than US$ 125 billion) in a series of infrastructure programmes known as the “i-Taiwan 12 Projects”. Through that year, the projects are expected to boost Taiwan’s real GDP by an average 2.79 per cent per year and create an average 277,000 jobs annually.

Though Taiwan has emerged from eco-

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nomic recession, it faces challenges posed by the “new regionalism” stemming from globalisation. Driven by pursuit of common values, norms and interests within their respective regions, more and more nations are entering into various kinds of free trade agreements (FTAs). In recent years, for example, FTAs between ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations) and China, South Korea and Japan, respectively, have been concluded and implemented, making Asia-Pacific integration an irreversible trend. If Taiwan remains isolated from this mainstream, it will pose severe challenges to our economic growth and sustained development.

Thus, as a key member of the Asia-Pacific region and as one of its major economies, Taiwan has signed 12 agreements with mainland China, concerning trade, tourism and other matters crucial to the interests of our peoples.

In recent months, the two have been negotiating an economic cooperation framework agreement (ECFA). In response to new regionalism, we also look forward to signing FTAs with other countries.

The ECFA will cover three major areas of concern-tariff reductions and exemptions, investment safeguards, and protection of intellectual property rights. Studies conducted by research institutions in Taiwan indicate that the conclusion of an ECFA will clearly benefit Taiwan: It will boost our exports, encourage overseas Taiwanese businesses to invest in Taiwan, stimulate foreign direct investment, and create job opportunities.

In addition to promoting a cross-strait ECFA, Taiwan will work to sign FTAs or similar economic agreements with the United States, Japan, Singapore and other Asia-Pacific nations. Only by doing so, we can join with other regions, and with the world as a whole, to create mutual benefits and prosperity.

President Ma’s cross-strait policies have proved to be effective in bringing peace and stability to the Taiwan Strait. They conform to the common interests of Asia-Pacific nations and advance the economic development and well-being of peoples on both sides of the strait.

In future, Taiwan will continue pursuing modes of global engagement designed to create benefits for all; we will ceaselessly strive to enhance our economic development while expanding our involvement in international affairs; and we will maintain a responsible, pragmatic, positive attitude. In this way, Taiwan can be counted on to contribute solidly to the international community and cooperate with its members in creating peace and prosperity in the AsiaPacific and the world.

June 2010

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SPREADING TERROR TENTACLES

Lashkar-e-Taiba, despite enjoying funding from ISI, is gradually getting out of the control of Pakistan to become a multinational organisation that determines its own Pan-Islamic agenda.

RYAN CLARKE provides an insight into the LeT’s monstrous intent…

TESTIMONY TO TERROR: The Taj in Mumbai engulfed in flames after LeT terrorists stormed it on 26/11

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June 2010

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TERRORWATCH

A

LTHOUGH LASHKAR-E-TAIBA (LeT) was a key component of Islamabad’s regional strategy in the past, the organization is growing beyond Pakistan’s control and is undertaking its own independent operations. LeT still views Kashmir as a vital issue, but now feels it is a part of a larger Pan-Islamic strategy.

Pursuant to this objective, LeT has forged selective partnerships with fellow Pakistani and other regional militant groups, as well as criminal syndicates, whose activities undermine Pakistan’s own security, escalate terrorism campaigns throughout South Asia, and increase the risk of an inadvertent war between India and Pakistan.

One such group is al-Qaeda, an organi-

lishment continues unabated, LeT will become a multinational organization that determines its own agenda as it will have a wide range of sponsors and sources of funding, and will have fighters and other vital resources spread throughout several regions. This clearly defies the logic, used by several state sponsors of terrorism, that irregulars can be sustainably used in an asymmetric fashion to achieve limited objectives against a conventionally superior adversary, and that such groups will not eventually deviate from the process of not escalating tensions past a certain point.

This throws into doubt claims that ties between groups like Hezbollah and Tehran/Damascus are a permanent reality and are not vulnerable to fractionalisation.

DEATH INCARNATE: Lashkar terrorist Ajmal Kasab zation whose presence on Pakistani soil Islamabad has promised to eradicate. LeT is also believed to have been involved in attempts on the lives of several Pakistani leaders, including General Musharraf, and the recent attacks in Mumbai. As such, it appears that LeT leaders no longer feel that they are accountable to their former patron as a whole, but rather to themselves and a select few officers in ISI and the Pakistani military (current and/or retired).

However, if support for LeT from the Pakistani intelligence and military estab-

LeT has not had problems in recruitment, as many madarsas in Pakistan remain unsupervised and do not equip graduates with practical skills.

Further, communal tension within India has allowed LeT to develop a working relationship with SIMI and to establish Indian Mujahideen (IM), assist its operations, and guide its development and strategic planning. In addition, these tensions have made it possible for LeT to recruit within India, thus providing it with ideal operatives that speak without foreign accents, are highly

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familiar with their surroundings, and have an extensive network of local contacts.

Equally troubling is the fact that LeT has upgraded its activities and has begun to operate throughout India and will likely target transportation and economic infrastructure and the political establishment as opposed to Indian security forces exclusively. It has also adopted new methods of destabilisation such as recruiting from India’s troubled Northeast and smuggling militants into India by sea, a serious infringement on India’s sovereignty.

Despite being a proscribed outfit, LeT still enjoys funding from ISI and donations from a wide range of domestic and overseas sympathisers, including Indian Muslims.

Further, after capitalizing on the 2005 earthquake, LeT has been able to reestablish some of its fund-raising activities within Pakistan. On top of this, LeT now raises funds on the internet and has become market-savvy while making legitimate investments in a range of sectors. LeT is also very likely involved in trafficking Afghan heroin, an extremely high yielding venture given the low overhead costs and high domestic and overseas demand. All of this has resulted in a diversification of LeT’s financial pipeline, thus reducing the possibility of it being held hostage to a particular party, decreasing its vulnerability to a decapitating strike, and ensuring its continued existence even if it is abandoned by Islamabad entirely.

India will continue to face a serious threat from Pakistan-based terrorist groups for the foreseeable future. However, India lacks military options that have strategiclevel effects without a significant risk of a military response by Pakistan, and neither Indian nor US policy is likely to be able to reduce the terrorist threat substantially in

COMMUNAL TENSION WITHIN INDIA HAS ALLOWED LASHKAR TO DEVELOP A WORKING RELATIONSHIP WITH SIMI June 2010

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the short to medium term. Due to this, other Indian extremists will inevitably find inspiration and instruction from the November 2008 Mumbai attacks. Local radicalisation is a major goal of the terrorists, and this will remain a major social and political challenge for India.

Although LeT spectaculars grab international attention, and inspire others, their impacts on India and Mumbai in particular are not usually long-lasting, thus rendering LeT unable to translate short-term tactical victories into long-term strategic gains while operating on its own from Pakistan. Due to this, LeT and others will rely more heavily on IM to increase its membership and to engage in low-tech terrorism campaigns throughout India if it expects to succeed in undermining the Indian economy, disturbing communal relations, and dashing any hopes of improving ties between India and Pakistan.

Although LeT and groups like HUJI-B have high hopes for IM, the group remains relatively primitive in terms of operational capacity and information operations.

LeT’s rise to prominence has largely followed a more sophisticated understanding of politics and strategic thought, thus causing the group to come to view violence as a tool rather than an end in itself.

IM’s urban terrorism currently appears to be reactive and driven by anger rather than by more complex strategic objectives, something that LeT undoubtedly seeks to change. At present, IM’s attacks do not require a safe haven or training in Pakistan as they are relatively simple, but if the group intends to evolve, then the role of both Pakistan and Bangladesh will become more prominent. However, although LeT would like to see a much more advanced IM, it will still seek to claim the title of South Asia’s most effective terrorist group.

If this is to occur, LeT will continue to plan major Mumbai-style operations in India while also scaling up attacks in other contries so as to maintain legitimacy.

Since many of LeT’s cadres are Pakistani and IM is still a somewhat disjointed organisation, D-Company’s logistical network will be critical, especially in major urban centres such as Mumbai. This network can be utilised for recruiting, smuggling weapons and militants in and out of India, and providing pre-and post-operation services like surveillance, reconnaissance, and assisting terrorists in moving through India undetected. Without D-Company’s vast cross-border network, LeT is unlikely to be able to achieve its objectives in India and the growth of IM

PREACHING BROTHERHOOD OF HATE: Osama bin Laden

LeT STILL ENJOYS FUNDING FROM ISI AND DONATIONS FROM A WIDE RANGE OF DOMESTIC AND OVERSEAS SYMPATHISERS, INCLUDING INDIAN MUSLIMS will be inhibited, thus limiting it to inconsistent low-tech terrorism which has few lasting effects despite the loss of human life and damage to property. Though investigations are still ongoing and the full story may never be available, as is the case with the 1993 Mumbai (Bombay) blasts, any revelation of D-Company’s involvement in the 2008 Mumbai attacks should not surprise analysts.

India faces a considerable security

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challenge from Bangladesh with two major terrorist groups that have ties with LeT and other groups in Pakistan and are increasing their capabilities alongside their ambitions and political awareness while the country has been neglected by international counterterrorism efforts.

The bomb blasts in Assam and the BDR mutiny serve as a startling preview of what is to come if current trends are not reversed. Given the porous nature of the Indo-Bangladeshi border and the shared ethnicity between the two countries, knock-on effects in India and on IM’s capabilities would be nearly unavoidable.

Further, in the event that Pakistan actually engages in a meaningful crackdown on terrorist groups operating from its territory, Bangladesh would become IM’s most viable option for strategic guidance and material support.

No group from Pakistan, Bangladesh, or elsewhere could make headway in India unless conditions in select areas were conducive to such activity. Without the Indian component, these groups would remain confined to carrying out occasional largescale attacks that do not result in political gains, and the IM project could not be successful. This fact is something that New Delhi must continuously emphasize to its civilian population as opposed to focusing a disproportionate amount of attention on foreign groups. As long as the Indian media and political leadership continue to point the finger exclusively towards external forces, many in the security bodies and the general public will look overseas along with them. If a new counterterrorism body is formed under these misconceptions, there is little to suggest that it will be any more effective than its predecessors. In addition, New Delhi’s approach could alienate its regional neighbours, thus unnecessarily undermining any potential for stronger inter-state cooperation.

Until New Delhi faces up to this, it is unlikely that it will be able to implement a functioning counterterrorism strategy and these attacks will tragically continue. This will prove most detrimental to India’s internal stability, business climate, and the faith of its people in the nation’s political leadership and security forces, and could drag South Asia’s nuclear-armed rivals into a war. ( Working at S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Singapore, the writer has authored Lashkar-E-Taiba: The Fallacy of Subservient Proxies and the Future of Islamist Terrorism in India) June 2010

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THE LAST GAMBLE!

The US-led forces in Afghanistan have to act fast to implement the ‘Counter-Insurgency (COIN)’ programme, which aims at preventing alienation of the Afghan citizens from them. A mere counterterrorism drive is unlikely to work, especially in this ‘graveyard of empires,’ writes UDDIPAN MUKHERJEE.

A

PART FROM the ‘near-extinction’ level effect of the nuclear arsenal that the nation-states possess, another major factor which has come to perennially perturb the common lives is international terrorism perpetrated by ‘brand names’ like the Al Qaeda and the Taliban. ‘Terrorism’ follows the modus operandi of causing harm to the common people so that the ‘rule of law’ in a particular territory dwindles. This process aids the ‘terrorists’ to negotiate with the ‘state-actors’ in order to gain leverage.

On the other hand, ‘insurgency’ can be described as an organized movement aimed at the overthrow of a constituted government through the use of subversion and armed conflict. Well, terrorism can surely be a part of the overall strategy of the insurgents.

Presently, the Taliban and the Al Qaeda are the ‘non-state actors’ leading insurgencies in various nation-states such as Afghanistan, Iraq and Somalia to establish a ‘pure Islamic world’ based on the Shariat and the Hadis (sayings of the Prophet). And America and the Western world are their arch enemies, with any other country joining the rank and file of the US-led counter-terrorism drive falling prey to the blatant acts of terror

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STRATEGIC PARLEY: US President Obama with incharge of the NATO-ISAF forces, Gen Stanley McChrystal committed by these radical Islamists.

It is imperative for the US-led forces to follow a carefully threaded ‘Counter-Insurgency (COIN)’ programme, and not merely a counter-terrorism drive so that the citizens of these countries do not get alienated from them and treat them as ‘invaders’.

In Afghanistan, the US-led NATO-ISAF (International Security Assistance Force) has been facing a messy situation after about eight years in the tribal dominated, culturally and politically independent minded land.

NATO-ISAF desperately needs to act fast in implementing the COIN. Time is running out, and explicably for President Obama, who has to show tangible signs of deliverance in Afghanistan by July 2011, by when according to his own proclamation, he may commence withdrawal of US forces.

Soon after assuming Presidency in January 2009, the first thing that Obama did was to inflate the number of US troops in Afghanistan by another 17,000 in order to bolster up the ground situation. And in the middle of the same year, he put in Gen. Stanley McChrystal as in-charge of the NATO-ISAF forces in Afghanistan. At the same time, he re-affirmed his confidence in the Bush-era Defense Secretary Robert Gates as well as CENTCOM (Central Command) Chief David Petraeus.

Accordingly, Gen. McChrystal came out with a detailed report of sixty-six pages outlining a definite COIN strategy for the Afghan War. The report had lifted ‘several pages’ of

the COIN Manual of the US Army bearing the signature of David Petraeus. McChrystal requested for a troop ‘surge’ to the tune of forty thousand over and above the already existing sixty-eight thousand American men.

After some dilly-dallying, in December 2009, Obama agreed upon the ‘surge’, though reducing the number to thirty thousand.

The primary objective behind the ‘surge’ was to employ the COIN strategy of “Clear, Hold and Build” (CHB); i.e. ‘Clear’ the chosen areas of the Taliban, thereafter ‘Hold’ those areas for a considerable time period and finally ‘Build’ infrastructure and institutions in those areas so that the incumbent Afghan government can permanently entrench itself.

Secondly, according to McChrystal, NATOISAF needed to have a better interaction with the masses in order to gain their confidence.

All this entailed that the civilian casualties from the NATO-ISAF side had to diminish.

Moshtarak is an Afghan word meaning “together”. The name carries significance in the sense that the present operation contemplated by Gen. McChrystal is a joint one, encompassing the Afghan National Security Force (ANSF) along with NATO-ISAF. The ground offensive, though launched on 13 February 2010, had been much publicized as the biggest offensive in Afghanistan after the invasion commenced in 2001. The goal is to clear the Taliban from Lashkar Gah and Marjah. McChrystal has demanded a troop surge. He believes that with more than 100,000 troops the

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CHB strategy would succeed.

First, the ‘clear’ phase was likely to be successful and latest reports term them to be such since within two weeks of the operation, the Afghan flag has been hoisted twice in Marjah: a signature of coalition victory. This time the troops appear to be sufficient as they outnumbered the Taliban by about 10:1 ratio.

But then, it is natural that the insurgents have just melted away to other places by avoiding direct bloodshed. The Taliban are just playing a waiting game. Nevertheless, at least the coalition wanted a symbolic victory.

McChrystal and company know that a protracted guerrilla war would continue and the NATO-ISAF have to contend with long-range snipers and IEDs. Second, to ‘hold’ the area would certainly be much more cumbersome as sporadic attacks on the coalition forces would necessarily occur.

Finally, the last phase of ‘build’ would take a considerable time. The coalition claims to have a ‘government in a box’ ready to be put into Marjah after the ‘clear’ phase.

The principal US aim is to ‘clear’ large parts of Helmand and Kandahar and ‘somehow hold’ onto those regions and at the same time ‘build’ as much infrastructure and institutions as possible. If this could be continued till July 2011, then ‘Nobel’ Obama could declare ‘success’ and hence if needed, an honourable retreat.

However, there are a number of caveats.

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NEIGHBOURS First and most important, will the Americans still reside in Afghanistan if their present goal is not achieved by 2011? Since, the Taliban are playing a waiting game, the answer to this question is vital.

Second, what would happen after the US withdrawal? If a proper government cannot be formed, it is highly likely that the Taliban would displace the incumbent Karzai regime in a coup. And that in all probability can bring in the Al Qaeda again.

Third, what about the political component of the strategy that involves wooing the low and middle level Taliban by guaranteeing them job and security? The task here is not easy as there are instances of past failures where re-integration had not been satisfactory.

Fourth, what role would Pakistan play?

Till date, it has allowed its territory to be used for drone-attacks on Taliban and Al Qaeda suspects. It has also embarked on a major ground offensive against the insurgents in Swat and FATA. But the civil-military elite of Pakistan would continue to have their reservations regarding an Indiafriendly Afghan government after the US withdrawal. The fact remains that the Taliban were promoted by the then Benazir Bhutto regime. And till date, Pakistan seeks a ‘strategic depth’ in Afghanistan.

Fifth, what about the interaction of the coalition troops with the locals? It has been reported that in spite of the best efforts of the NATO-ISAF troops to avoid civilian casualties, around 30 civilians have lost their lives during the present operation and around 20,000 have been displaced. Against this backdrop, the task of rehabilitation and confidence building is quite challenging.

Sixth, too much US concentration on the Pashtun-dominated South makes the Northern provinces like Kunduz vulnerable to Taliban growth. If the insurgency spreads in northern Afghanistan, the Central Asian Republics may also come under the Taliban domination.

Seventh, the longer the COIN persists, the higher would be the cost factor. According to data provided by the Congressional Research Service, the cost of one U.S. soldier in Afghanistan is $1 million and that of maintaining an Afghan soldier is an estimated $12,000 for one year. Hence 100,000 American troops in 2010 would tantamount to $100 billion. On top of this, the cost of the support staff and transport system is bound to escalate.

The US has plunged into the doctrine of CHB-COIN as articulated by the triumvirate of Obama, Petraeus and McChrystal. The COIN

Marjah: Nerve-centre of the Taliban insurgency US Central Command chief David Petraeus

IN AFGHANISTAN, THE US-LED NATO-ISAF (INTERNATIONAL SECURITY ASSISTANCE FORCE) HAS BEEN FACING A MESSY SITUATION manual of the US Army, per se, is a meaty and scholarly treatise of years of experience of several military generals who had withstood different kinds of insurgencies across various territorial domains in challenging conditions.

But the moot point is the applicability of the COIN in the ‘graveyard of empires’. If the Obama administration is trying to ‘run’ away from the undulated territory by somehow erecting a ‘façade of COIN’, then the implementation seems to be perfectly plausible.

But, if Obama is really serious about ‘building a nation’ for the ‘variegated bands of tribes in the land of Abdali,’ then the COIN may prove to be too costly and it could be, in turn, detrimental to Obama’s domestic preferences: a ‘not-so-soothing scenario’ for his re-election cycle.

(A doctorate in Physics from the Tata Institute of Fundamental Research, the author writes on security issues)

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OUT OF Afghanistan’s thirty-four provinces, the southern territories of Helmand, Kandahar, Zabul and Uruzgan are the main bastions of the Taliban. And amongst these, Helmand and Kandahar top the list. Marjah is a town in the southern half of the Nad Ali district in Helmand. The town has a population ranging between 50,000 and 80,000. Marjah is a nerve centre of the Taliban-led insurgency as it is a poppy-growing centre, which forms a substantial part of the funding for the terrorists.

As a matter of fact, Helmand is the largest opium-producing region of the world. The Taliban encourages and sometimes exhorts the farmers to grow poppy so that it sustains the finance of the anti-US insurgency.

The farmers also find it profitable to continue growing opium as the Taliban provide safe transit facilities to the nearby Pakistani city of Quetta from where the opium reaches the world market.

The town of Marjah has vast expanses of open space, punctuated by mud-brick compounds and crisscrossed by narrow irrigation canals which helped the Afghan Mujahideen fighters to evade the Red Army during the Soviet occupation (1979-89).

Marjah is barely twenty-five miles southwest of Helmand’s capital Lashkar Gah. Reports suggest that Mullah Omar’s Taliban generate around a whopping $200,000 per month from the flourishing opiumheroin business from the town. To have a stranglehold on the economy of the region, Taliban have alternative judicial and political institutions in place. The focal point of Taliban activity in Marjah is a market called the Loy Charahi bazaar.

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HIMALAYAN UNREST Nepal is passing through a period of uncertainty after the failed experiment of a Maoist government, giving rise to a kind of longing for the now defunct institution of monarchy.

BHASKAR ROY analyses.

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EPAL TODAY stands at the crossroads of history. Interestingly, former king Gyanendra quipped in a television interview in March that the monarchy had not been abolished and it was the people’s choice. There are also signs that Gyanendra’s image among the people is undergoing a metamorphosis. Once disliked thoroughly, today he is attracting gatherings of increasing numbers during his visits to different places in the country.

Gyanendra clearly kept a very low profile after his ouster. He spent considerable time in India, visiting holy places and temples, avoiding leading Indian politicians and not talking politics. He began to show his profile

just as the Nepali politicians tasselled themselves like Chinese noodles and the country slid towards almost non-governance.

Another question that may be discussed in this context is whether veteran politician and Nepali Congress leader Girija Prasad Koirala was really against monarchy, or whether he was only against Gyanendra and Paras. It must be recalled that he had mooted the idea of “boy king”, Gyanendra’s grandson.

Girija Babu, who passed away on March 20 at the ripe old age of 87, spent more than sixty years in active politics starting from the British India era. A man who preferred peace, he battled his way through trying times, dedicating his efforts to the betterment of his country.

RICH HERITAGE: Pashupatinath temple

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Five-time Prime Minister of Nepal, he never completed a single tenure. In what is called the first democratic revolution and the writing of the 1990 constitution, Girija Babu played a leading role. This constitution mooted a constitutional monarchy, a Hindu State and democracy. Does this constitution have any relevance even in parts today?

Girija Babu became the rallying point of almost all negotiations in the last decade and more. In the second people’s revolution in 2005-2006, which finally ousted King Gyanendra, liquidated monarchy in Nepal, and introduced the Republican system, GP Koirala played a key role.

On the one hand, Koirala had to deal with King Gyanendra, who suspended democracy and Parliament in 2005. On the other hand, he had to work with CPN (M) or Maoists, whose armed cadres known as the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), were threatening the entire fabric of Nepal to establish communist rule. Literally in a position between the devil and the deep sea, he decided on working with the Maoists. Gyanendra became King after a still questionable palace massacre killed his elder brother King Birendra and his entire family in 2001.

Increasingly, King Gyanendra and his son Prince Paras became unbearable for the country and the people.

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WAS HE INCLINED TOWARDS CONSTITUTIONAL MONARCHY? Girija Prasad Koirala; (L) Nepal parliament

Two of Nepal’s giant neighbours, China and India, played their respective roles in Nepal’s politics. Initially, China was uncomfortable with the Maoists. The Chinese were very happy with the palace, especially King Gyanendra, who adopted an open pro-China and anti-India policy. What made him do that is difficult to say. It could have been due to flaws in India’s Nepal policy which has

A FAILED EXPERIMENT: Prachanda

often been misplaced.

What still remains to be deciphered is how the Chinese so quickly won over the Maoists following the fall of King Gyanendra.

Prince Paras had no inclination to succeed his father, and monarchy was abolished by the interim legislature. Therefore, China’s best bet were the Maoists whose hardliners had always remained ideologically close to China, which is why they called themselves Maoists. But in all probability, there must have been contacts between the two sides all this time. In 2003, there were reports of the Maoists getting arms clandestinely from Tibet, and Chinese diplomats meeting Maoists. A western diplomat, who was out hiking in the Mustang region bordering Tibet, was witness to a consignment of arms being smuggled in from Tibet.

India, for once, played a very mature role all through. The New Delhi agreement hammered between all major Nepali parties, including the Maoists, for the “peace process” was a landmark achievement. But the goal is yet to be achieved, and the interim Parliament is to write a new constitution.

If the constitution is not written and the peace process not completed by the due date, the question of Nepal’s future will remain wide open. The peace process includes a lot of settlement, including inte-

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gration of the Maoist fighters, the PLA in Nepal’s security forces.

It is true that the current coalition government is led by the number three party in Parliament e.g. the Nepali Communist Party United Marxist-Leninist, (UML). The UNCP (M), the Maoists constitute the opposition.

But they chose to be so.

The first post-monarchy government was led by the Maoists, but they were at odds with the rest all the time. The then prime minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka Prachanda, on return from a visit to China, openly said that the Chinese leaders told him that the Maoists should not have resigned from the government. Prachanda, therefore, made several contacts with Chinese officials, at least twice in Hong Kong. The Maoists, both in and outside the government have been pushing the idea of a one party communist/socialist rule, though they understand that the other political parties cannot be wished away. The Maoists stepped out of the government for a tactical reason. They could threaten the coalition government perceived as weak, with a return to people’s war to achieve their political ends.

The Maoist ideologues like their leading light Mohan Vaidya Kiran are well versed in Mao Zedong’s revolutionary tactics. At the Lushan Plenary session of the Chinese Communist Party in 1959, Mao threatened his detractors that he was ready to go back to the villages to create another peasants’ army to take them on. He won the argument.

However, if people like Kiran and Ram Bahadur Thapa Badal fancy that the 1959 situation in China exists in 2010 Nepal, they are hallucinating archaic history.

The Maoists are demanding a “People’s government”, a euphemism for a one-party rule, that is, a Maoist government. They have tried to politicise the Nepali Army (NA), and this is where they have come up with the June 2010

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strongest resistance.

Integration of the Maoist combatants into the Nepali Army has been on top of this Maoist agenda. The agreement to rehabilitate the combatants was aimed at integrating them in the security forces which include the police and such other institutions.

There is the question of the real number of Maoist combatants. A 2008 speech by Prachanda in a closed door party meeting leaked last year betrayed the Maoist plan.

He declared that an inflated number of PLA combatants was proffered to the government and the United Mission in Nepal (UNMIN) to sabotage the army ideologically.

Till now, the Maoists have not won the fight, and are unlikely to. The present Defence Minister, Ms Bidya Devi Bhandari, is emphatic that the Maoist combatants number 3000, as per the number of weapons surrendered to the UNMIN. At this point, it would be important to recall that the Chinese defence establishment had offered to the Maoist-led government to train and upgrade the Maoist army. That was a period when Chinese officials openly offered assistance to Nepal against India.

The period also saw an escalation of Chinese hostility, particularly aimed at India.

The Chinese authorities rarely make such miscalculations, but they did. They wanted to push their influence through Nepal to India’s immediate borders. Neither they nor the Nepali Maoists realised that the people of Nepal and India are so closely enmeshed in the economic well-being of Nepal, that the Chinese strategy had little chance to succeed. But China has not given up. They have made only a tactical retreat.

A question that needs to be asked is why a group among the Maoists are sniping at Prachanda and the Maoist Vice Chairman Dr. Baburam Bhattarai as Indian stooges.

One of Nepal’s leading media agencies projected Prachanda as an agent of India’s intelligence agency, the RAW. Dr Bhattarai has also been attacked similarly.

Obviously, this suggests that there is a sharp division among the Maoists on the India policy. The hardliners believe that India’s strong democratic traditions challenge their Sinophilic one-party ambition.

This makes a perfect case for the Maoists to split. It may be just a matter of time. The more moderate and realistic group would win hands down if the split occurs. That will bring an end to the militancy and extra-judicial actions of the armed Young Communist League (YCL), the youth wing of the Maoists.

Former Nepal King Gyanendra

Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal

THE CHINESE WERE VERY HAPPY WITH THE PALACE, ESPECIALLY KING GYANENDRA, WHO ADOPTED AN OPEN PRO-CHINA AND ANTI-INDIA POLICY

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There is increasing evidence to suggest that the common people of Nepal are fast losing their faith in the Maoists. The sum total of what the Maoist have done till now is destabilisation. They are yet to return the properties they confiscated during their guerrilla warfare to the rightful owners.

They rescinded on other promises too.

What is most terrifying is that the Maoist cadres, especially YCL and the PLA have not learnt any constructive skills. Guns and easy money can be great temptations for such young people, many of whom are tending to banditry.

Politically, after the declaration of Nepal as a Republic, the question of monarchy should not normally arise. But Gyanendra touched some raw nerves in his recent televised interview as he spoke about the continuing relevance of the instituirion of monarchy. Maoist Vice President, Baburam Bhattarai, apparently taken aback, described Gyanendra’s statement as “terrifying.” Interestingly, veteran politician, K P Bhattarai has also remarked in the context of constitution writing that Nepal should revert to the 1990 constitution which recognises a constitutional monarchy, Hindu state and democracy.

Obviously, there were voices of opposition from different parties. That was to be expected. But there also appear to be some voices in favour, though partially.

‘Hindu state’ is one idea that may be catching on. This is not to say that monarchy is returning but the question cannot be dismissed entirely, going by what Nepal is witnessing today.

India must play a major role. If China can calm down the Maoist hardliners, they will have a welcome role to play. But if they prefer to fish in troubled waters, they will be largely to blame. And, the US has also an important role, given that it is a major aid-giver to Nepal. This is the time for all concerned players to douse the fires rather than igniting them.

The present coalition government must remain in position till it completes its term, or gets defeated in Parliament during a confidence motion. Monitoring parties can form a coalition as is the case with Britain. The term for the Constituent Assembly must be extended, despite the conditions set by the Maoists. If they do not, there will be chaos but a solution will come ultimately. And, the Maoists would be writing their obituary.

(The writer is a retired civil servant & strategic analyst) June 2010

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UPHOLDING DEMOCRACY: Students and monks participating in a mass protest against the military rulers in 2007

ENGAGING THE JUNTA

The courting of Myanmar’s military rulers has not been largely in India’s interests; its approach should be more nuanced, feels SUDHA RAMACHANDRAN.

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I

NDIA’S ‘PRAGMATIC approach’ of dealing with Myanmar’s military rulers has come in for much criticism at home and abroad. While some critics have accused it of putting interests ahead of ideals in determining its policy to Myanmar, others have pointed out that this approach has benefited the Myanmar military more than it has India. Not only has India failed to contain China’s significant influence in Myanmar but also it has not been able to secure the generals’ full cooperation in tackling anti-India insurgents based on Myanmar soil. What is more, India’s image as an upholder of democratic values has been severely dented by its assiduous courting of the generals. Indeed, in the June 2010

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NEIGHBOURS roughly 15 years India has been engaging Myanmar’s military rulers, there has been a marked toning down in its support to the restoration of democracy in Myanmar.

Rewind to 1988 and the dramatic shift in India’s policy over the past two decades becomes more than apparent.

Two decades ago, when mass protests against the junta erupted in Myanmar, India stood firmly on the side of the prodemocracy movement. Officials in the Indian Embassy in the then capital, Yangon, are believed to have helped pro-democracy activists and opposition groups during the protests. India provided sanctuary to prodemocracy activists fleeing the junta’s crackdown. The then external affairs minister, P V Narasimha Rao told a parliamentary panel: “Strict instructions have been issued not to turn back any genuine refugees seeking shelter in India.”

Contrast this with the Indian government’s response or rather lack of response to developments in Myanmar in recent years. Since the mid-1990s when it adopted the more ‘pragmatic approach’ of engaging the generals, India has stopped calling for restoration of democracy, preferring instead to focus on reconciliation. More recently, it has chosen to simply look the other way.

In 2007, when the junta used extreme force against students and monks participating in mass protests in Yangon and other cities, India remained a silent spectator for several months. When it broke its silence finally, the statement it issued was bland. It said was “concerned” and expressed hope “that all sides will resolve their issues peacefully through dialogue”. It failed to condemn or even mention the junta’s action.

There has been no comment from India on Myanmar’s new constitution, which entrenches the military in the power structure (25 per cent of the seats in Parliament will be reserved for the military) or even the new election laws that are designed to exclude pro-democracy activists, including Suu Kyi. India has stopped calling for the release of Suu Kyi, who has spent around 15 of the past 21 years in some form of detention. The extension of her detention last year by another 18 months for allegedly breaching the conditions of her detention was met with stony silence from Delhi.

What prompted this dramatic shift in India’s policy?

India’s decision to engage Myanmar’s generals stemmed from several concerns, the most important being the need to contain China’s immense influence in that

FIGHTING AGAINST THE JUNTA: Aung Sang Suu Kye

TWO DECADES AGO, WHEN MASS PROTESTS AGAINST THE JUNTA ERUPTED IN MYANMAR, INDIA STOOD FIRMLY ON THE SIDE OF THE PRO-DEMOCRACY MOVEMENT country. By the early-mid-1990s, India woke up to the fact that its distancing from Myanmar’s rulers had taken a heavy toll China had developed significant influence in Myanmar. Beijing, which had maintained close ties with the junta for decades, was playing a larger role in Myanmar’s defense and economy. Its involvement in modernization of Myanmar’s ports gave it access to the Bay of Bengal. India realized that by not engaging the junta, it had left its eastern flank vulnerable and reckoned that the only way to counter this was for it to deal with the generals.

India also realized that to tackle the insurgency in its northeast it needed co-operation from Myanmar. Several northeastern insurgent groups have training

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camps and bases in Myanmar and India needed the support of the generals to have these shut down.

Then, there was the energy imperative.

Energy-starved India has also been keen to access Myanmar’s gas reserves. Besides, the success of its ‘Look East policy’ hinged to a considerable extent on improving ties with its ‘land-bridge’ to Southeast Asia — Myanmar. All these considerations necessitated India to do business with Myanmar’s rulers — the generals.

How successful has India’s approach of engaging the generals been? “It is partly working,” says Colonel Hariharan, a retired military intelligence officer in the Indian Army.

Over the past 15 years, India’s relations with Myanmar have undergone a huge transformation. “Political relations between the two countries have improved considerably,” K Yhome, associate professor at Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi told GEOPOLITICS. Bilateral interaction at various levels has grown phenomenally and India’s influence among the generals is said to have increased. Maung Aye, the number two in the junta hierarchy, is said to be favourably disposed towards India.

Indian officials often praise Myanmar’s generals for their co-operation with India on counter-insurgency operations. Indeed, unlike the military in Pakistan, the generals in Myanmar have co-operated in tackling anti-India militants based there. Since 1995, co-ordinated counter-insurgency operations have been carried out from time to time. In January this year, India’s Home Secretary G K Pillai led a delegation to Naypyidaw where he discussed co-ordinated operations with the Myanmar military. “All camps (in Myanmar) which are acting against the interest of India would be targeted,” Pillai told the media after the conclusion of the talks.

However, it is hard to dispel the feeling that it is Myanmar’s military rather than India that has gained more from the bilateral bonhomie. India’s engagement of the generals has brought them the stamp of approval of the world’s largest democracy, something none of their other neighbours can provide. They have got military hardware from India. While Delhi has claimed that its arms sales to Myanmar is of defensive nature and restricted to items like patrol boats and surveillance aircraft, it is believed to have transferred tanks, artillery guns and light attack helicopters as well.

India has contributed in a big way to infrastructural development in Myanmar and June 2010

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Indian projects in Myanmar ■

The Rs 550-crore Kaladan multi-modal transport project will link Mizoram with Sittwe port in Myanmar via road and river links. It involves construction of a road connecting NH54 in Mizoram to Kaletwa in Myanmar, making the Kaladan River navigable i.e. widening and deepening it to allow cargo vessels, and upgradation of Myanmar’s Sittwe port. Once completed the Kaladan multimodal corridor will provide India’s landlocked north-eastern states with an alternative shorter route to a port (Sittwe). The option currently used is via the Siliguri corridor to Kolkata.

Under the agreement, India will be allowed to use Sittwe port. This will give Delhi a foothold of sorts at this strategic port. Near Sittwe, off the Arakan coast lie Southeast Asia’s largest proven gas reserves, the Shwe Gas field.

■

India proposes to build the 1,200MW Tamanthi hydroelectric power plant and the 642MW Shwezaye power project on the Chindwin river, the largest tributary of the Irrawaddy river. An estimated 80% of the power generated from these projects will go to India. The Tamanthi dam is controversial in Myanmar as it will displace over 30,000 people in 35 Kuki villages.

DIPLOMATIC EXPEDIENCY: Manmohan Singh with Myanmar Senior General Than Shwe

provided it with cheap loans, easing the impact of international sanctions on that country.

Bilateral trade too has benefited Myanmar more than it has India. Imports from Myanmar far outweigh Indian exports to that country. In 2007-08, for instance, India’s exports to Myanmar were just $185 million, while imports were worth over $809 million. As for border trade it is far short of India’s expectations. Delhi had hoped that border trade between its northeastern states and Myanmar would contribute to transforming the former’s economy. That has not happened.

Critics of India’s Myanmar policy point out that engaging the generals has not helped contain China’s influence in Myanmar. A look at India’s performance with regard to clinching gas deals is illustrative.

In 2007 for instance, Myanmar ignored India’s bid and awarded a gas deal to PetroChina, although ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL) and GAIL (India) Ltd between them hold 30 per cent participating interest in the A1 and A3 blocks of Myanmar’s offshore natural gas fields, with GAIL enjoying status of ‘preferential buyer’ on these two blocks.

Critics also point out that with regard to counter-insurgency co-operation too, Myanmar’s generals have given India only patchy support. While the generals have sealed the border on Delhi’s request when military operations are launched in the

northeast and have even arrested insurgents fleeing India into Myanmar, rarely that these insurgents been handed over to India. In fact, the generals are known to have released hundreds of captured insurgents in 1995 and again in 2001.

Yhome points out that while the concerns that prompted India’s shift in policy might not have been fully addressed yet, India is in a far better position to protect its interests in Myanmar today than it was ten years ago.

Examining China’s continuing influence and presence in Myanmar, he draws attention to the role that China’s veto power plays in swinging deals in its favour. “Myanmar’s decision favouring China over India in the 2007 gas deal was determined by the Chinese veto,” Yhome points out. The generals clearly see the veto as more valuable to their regime’s survival than any monetary or technological help that India can give them. Thus,

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although the generals are keen to reduce Myanmar’s excessive dependence on China and see India as a useful counter to achieve this, they have not gone far enough to shake off Chinese influence.

As for the less than robust support to India’s counterinsurgency operations, Hariharan told G EOPOLITICS that with various rebel outfits still active along the IndiaMyanmar border, the generals’ writ here is limited. “There is a lack of political will to act too,” he said. It is believed that several generals are involved in the narcotics trade in the region and the insurgents are important links in that network. Besides, it is likely that the military sees the Indian insurgents based on its soil as providing it useful leverage against India.

If India’s engagement of the junta has not been rewarding enough, a part of the blame lies with India. “Unlike China, India has been lethargic in its implementation of projects in Myanmar,” says Yhome. There has been no progress on the Kaladan project two years after the agreement was signed. The same is the case with the 1,200 MW Tamanthi hydropower project on the Chindwin river as well. Similarly, if border trade hasn’t done well, it is because of the limited number of items on the trade list, the insurgency in the northeast and the poor transport infrastructure in the region.

Yhome argues that India has the right policy in place towards Myanmar. Only it needs time to bring results. The gap in the influence that India and China wield there is narrowing, he says.

Rights activists often call on India to stop engaging the generals. But this is an unreasonable demand. Myanmar is a strategically located neighbour and India cannot afford to refrain from interacting with it. India should deal with all governments in its neighbourhood, whether democratic or authoritarian.

However, its approach could be more nuanced. Rather than this all-out courting of the generals, which hasn’t quite helped it achieve its goals, India must consider a strategy that involves extending carrots but wielding the stick as well. India’s long-term interests lie in an inclusive, democratic Myanmar. Without sounding shrill and accusatory, Delhi can and must raise the issue of democratisation with the generals and pursue this during bilateral dialogues rather than give it the transient attention it is getting at present.

(The writer is an independent analyst based in Bangalore) June 2010

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BATTLE BEYOND BOUNDARIES Today, ‘informationised warfare’ is fast becoming a cost-effective option. MONIKA CHANSORIA takes stock of ‘leapfrog’ cyber espionage activities by China, which has reportedly deployed over 10,000 hackers to target key Indian government computer networks.

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YBER ASSAULT is fast becoming a common occurrence, given the ever-increasing Chinese potential in the said realm. Provided that in the current global construct, a ‘conventional military sphere’ might just not necessarily serve as the lone and overriding field vis-à-vis resolution of conflicts, there is every probability that future wars would be conducted in spheres that fall outside of the traditional realm. In this regard, Lian Xiangru’s diplomatic battle of “returning the jade in an undamaged condition to Zhao” and the virtual war conducted by Mo Zi and Gongshu Ban, are cited as well established examples of winning or precluding a war with non-military actions.

According to Warfare Beyond Rules: Judgment of War and Methods of War in the Era of Globalization (Chao Xian Zhan: Dui Quanqiu Hua Shidai Zhanzheng yu Zhanfa de Xiangding), the central premise of an evolving Chinese military thinking is that if China ever has to defend itself, it should be prepared to conduct “warfare beyond all boundaries and limitations”. The aforementioned ‘beyond military spheres’ is inclusive of diplomatic, data network, intelligence, psychological, technological, smuggling, drug, simulated war financial trade resources, economic aid, legal, sanctions, media and ideological war. Perhaps the most crucial among the ‘beyond rules’ criteria is marked by asymmetric warfare”-for instance, guerrilla war (mostly urban), terrorist activities, and cyber attacks directed against data networks.

As the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) concentrates towards developing a wide range of material and non-material capabilities that would make “defeating the superior with the inferior” possible, as famously stated

by Sun Tzu, the Chinese concept of “informationised warfare” could well be interpret-

KEY INDIAN GOVERNMENT COMPUTER NETWORKS HAVE REPORTEDLY BEEN HIT BY CHINESE HACKERS

PLUGGING LOOPHOLES: Former Chief Justice K G Balakrishnan inaugurating the Office & Court of the Cyber Regulation Appellate Tribunal in New Delhi ed as an outcome of an unambiguous transformation in the nation’s mode of thinking.

While outlining the strategic considerations for the PLA’s transformation, Zhan Yu is of the view that since traditional and mechanised methods of thought no longer seem to work in an integrated and systems-oriented environment, the strategic focus of the transformation should ideally remain “on changing the thinking style, introducing innovation in operational theory.”

As far as the PLA is concerned, these changes primarily centre around transforming the military from a ‘closed force’ into a ‘modern information-age power,’ focusing thereby on new missions and roles. Significantly, not only is China’s military reform process underway, but Beijing additionally is mounting its potential capability “to win local wars in the era of information” — as was highlighted in China’s official 2008 White Paper on National Defence. While signifying the application of the “informationised warfare” concept to age-old Chinese military principles, PLA Major Peng Hongqi states: “…Treat the peacetime struggle for information supremacy as a ‘genuine, perpetual, and never-ending battle’ in preparations and

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implementation. It must practice strict information secrecy. The essence of information confrontation is to gain as much enemy information as possible and keep the enemy from gaining information on one’s own side.”

Resultantly, one among the many transformations within the PLA since 2000 has been the rather clamorous effort to become an “informationised” force seeking to exploit advances in computers, communications, computer networks, long-range space and radar sensors and even information weapons to seek what the US essentially refers to as “information dominance.” Richard D Fisher Jr. equates the PLA with the US military, where information warfare involving “softkill” and “hard-kill” options is concerned; the soft-kill options include using computer network attack, electronic warfare such as jamming or electronic and high-power microwave devices to incapacitate military or civilian computer networks, weapons or electronic equipment. On the other hand the hard-kill options involve usage of anti-satellite weapons or anti-radiation missiles in order to destroy radar or communication nodes, or sending Special Forces to attack critical electronic targets.

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VOICING CONCERNS: Former National Security Advisor M K Narayanan In a critical investigation spanning 10 months vis-à-vis details of Chinese espionage doings, a topical joint report by the Information Warfare Monitor and Shadowserver Foundation titled, Shadows in the Cloud: Investigating Cyber Espionage, published in April 2010 has brought out that key Indian government computer networks have reportedly been hit by Chinese hackers. It is significant to note that matters crucially pertaining to national security such as network data and monitoring for national security and responses to combat cyber threats appeared to be the prime targets. The report goes on to underline that during the course of investigation, it was established that beleaguered academic targets included ex-filtrated papers on subjects such as the containment of the People’s Republic of China, Chinese military exports, Chinese foreign policy on Taiwan and Sino-Indian relations. The cyberespionage ring also targeted computers used by the Dalai Lama and the Tibetan government-in-exile. Besides, documents focusing on ethnicity, religion and politics in Central Asia and the links between armed groups and the PRC were placed under attack. Notwithstanding the fact that most of the research papers and articles are available in the public domain, the selective content of the material prominently signifies that the hackers successfully managed to get their hands on the issues that constitute to be of prime importance to the PRC. Moreover, the report also stated that the computer networks of the National Security Council Secretariat (NSCS) of India comprised of the Joint Intelligence Committee which is responsible for national security strategic planning have also been placed under attack. The 14 ex-filtrated papers included two documents that were marked as “SECRET.” In addition, given that New Delhi maintains numerous diplomatic missions

overseas, they are a prime target vis-à-vis information hacking. The report assessed that the computer networks at the Indian Embassies at Kabul and Moscow, the Consulate General of India at Dubai and the High Commission of India in Abuja and Nigeria were compromised based on the documents ex-filtrated by the attackers. As many as 99 documents, including what appeared to be an encrypted diplomatic correspondence; five documents marked “RESTRICTED” and four documents marked “CONFIDENTIAL,” were ex-filtrated. Significantly, the report observes that a document on “Project Shakti” — the Indian Army’s combat command and control system for the artillery that apparently was targeted — was recovered. The study mentioned the origin of these attacks being Chengdu and Sichuan province, as well as the HQ of the PLA’s SIGINT bureau. It stands to be highlighted that the Chengdu SIGINT sta-

THE PRIMARY FUNCTION OF THESE ‘RED HACKERS’ IS TO PROVIDE KEY SUPPORT TO THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT AND THE PLA tion in Sichuan operates the PLA’s Third Department’s collection primarily targeting India and Southeast Asia.

In what could best be described as a blizzard of cyber attacks directed against India, in May 2008, Chinese hackers allegedly broke into the Indian Ministry of External Affairs’ internal communication network.

Subsequently, in March 2009, former Indian Foreign Secretary and present National Security Adviser, Shiv Shankar Menon admitted that there had been attempts at hacking into the computers of Indian embassies, in response to media reports of a vast cyber network controlled from China, that targeted governments and private computers in 103 countries, including those of the Indian embassy in Washington. Later during that year, outgoing NSA, MK Narayanan was quoted by The Times in London that China’s cyber warriors had in

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SECURITY AT STAKE: National Security Advisor Shiv Shankar Menon fact hacked into computers in the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) in December 2009.

Aiming towards achieving ‘plausible deniability’, China circumspectly appears to be devising its strategy by means of these Chinese hackers-extensively referred to as the covert arm of the PLA. Cyber warfare has assumed shape to becoming a very cost-effective and striking option. In fact, according to a few western sources, Chinese cyber army includes over 10,000 hackers whose abilities fall second only to the US. The primary function of these ‘Red Hackers’ emerges so as to provide key support to the Chinese government as well as the PLA as it marches ahead onto accomplishing its aspiration of becoming an ‘informationised force.’

It is incongruous to ascertain that even though India is an IT giant, it spends less than $1 million on cyber operations that essentially are offensive in nature. On the contrary, the Chinese budget for the same is a whopping $55 million, consequently employing thousands of hackers. As India gradually becomes more reliant on cyber space, specific attention towards securing the cyber realm becomes even more palpable. Given India’s planning of a $9 billion package for its IT roadmap, the Chinese threat surely seems to be looming at large. A coherent policy so as to insulate computer networks and systems from being attacked by the adversary is the need of the hour. For this, setting-up of a central cyber security command and grant of additional funding for developing innovative future technologies to protect Indian networks could be the initial steps undertaken by New Delhi so as to deftly counter China’s ‘leapfrog’ cyber espionage activities.

(The writer is Research Fellow at the Centre for Land Warfare Studies, New Delhi.)

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HYDROGEN TECHNOLOGY FOR UUVs THE US NAVY has selected AlumiFuel Power (API) to carry out research and development of its hydrogen-generation technology to power future unmanned underwater vehicles (UUV).

The first phase of the research will focus on the development of a refuellable hydrogen-generating system by using solid fuel cartridges. It will include the demonstration of the continuous delivery of fuel-cell grade hydrogen for eight hours.

As per the navy requirement, underwater vehicles with higher power sources provide a wide range of support functions including autonomous surveillance, mine countermeasures and special forces transport.

The navy has chosen fuel cells for mission energy requirements, which can reduce the host vessel logistics burden if

the fuel and oxidizer can be stored in a high energy density format.

Ingenium Technologies, the prime contractor for the project, will develop the overall design of the UUV hydrogen generator in cooperation with Drexel University.

LASER AVENGER: DESTROYING IEDs THE “BOOBY trap” is as old as war itself, but in the era of Iraq and Afghanistan, its most modern incarnation — the improvised explosive device (IED) — has finally made the transition from tactical ‘nuisance’ to full-blown strategic threat. In India, the Maoist rebels use IED as their main weapon.

However, the US Army, in cooperation with Boeing, has successfully tested a laser system mounted on an Avenger combat vehicle, which neutralised 50 improvised explosive devices (IEDs).

During the test, the Laser Avenger destroyed several types of IEDs, including large-calibre artillery munitions and smaller bomblets and mortar rounds.

The system operates at a safe distance from the target and can fire from different angles and ranges. The system enables soldiers to remain in the armoured vehicles and continue their mission while it automatically destroys IEDs. The Laser Avenger uses two Stinger missile launchers and a heavy machine gun, with one missile pod for laser and its target tracker.

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C8: ARMOURED PROTECTION CONCORD 8 (C8) is a four-wheel drive lightweight rugged armoured vehicle designed for the Indian defence market.

Developed by Concord Safety Systems, the Indian partner of Arotech, the vehicle offers high mobility and bullet-proof protection. The prototype of the vehicle was manufactured at the Dehradun Concord facility.

Drivable on all terrain types, the vehicle is ideal for combating an insurgency, transporting men and materials, providing protection to re c o n n a i s s a n c e

missions employing convoys, and conducting search and rescue operations.

The C8 has been designed from the expertise derived from the development of David MDT's lightweight armoured vehicle. Based on the Indian 4×4 platform, the C8 can accommodate up to six soldiers, and a driver, along with their entire combat gear and loads.

The vehicle is air-conditioned with interiors designed to provide maximum flexibility. Doors are wide enough to enable quick entry and exit. The seating arrangement is flexible and can be customized into either a four or a six-seat configuration.

There are five gun ports and 12 V/24V battery options. To withstand the impact of a massive collision, the

vehicle has been fitted out with heavy duty bumpers.

At the rear of the vehicle, two multipurpose storage boxes have been installed in case additional ammunition is required. A blower attached inside the C8 absorbs acid gases released when the soldiers are shooting from inside the vehicle.

A four-wheel drive, the C8 is furnished with the capacity of power steering and run-flat tyres. The vehicle also has integrated capabilities for water-fording and high ground clearance. At the minimum level, its ground clearance level extends to 190mm, while its maximum ground clearance level has a range of 207 mm.

The payload capacity of Concord is calibrated up to 650 kg and the vehicle is bedecked with a double wishbone suspension system.

The C8 has the inherent option to adopt a whole variety of features, if and when needed, such as a communication system, a GPS, a PA system, siren, radio, and a remote-controlled searchlight. The vehicle can also be equipped with a beacon, communication racks, additional ammunition box holders, and selective armouring to provide its fuel tank with supplemental protection. The body of C8 is flexible enough to be extended to substantially increase the inside space of the vehicle, when needed.

Mk9 UNMANNED GROUND VEHICLE RECENTLY, NORTHROP Grumman unveiled the Wheelbarrow Mk9, a new version of its Wheelbarrow unmanned ground vehicle (UGV ). The enhanced UGV is designed for surveillance and the remote handling of hazardous threats.

The Mk9's enhancements have increased its speed, mobility, payload handling capacity and reach capabilities. It is also installed with the latest camera specifications and advanced control and communication systems to help it detect and dispose improvised explosive devices and combat threats. The new features are expected to increase its capabilities in defence and civilian security applications.

The Mk9 can remotely detonate IED and undertake several hazardous operations such as ground surveillance and chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear missions.

The uncluttered superstructure of the UGV has a wash-down capability with an improvised under-vehicle reach. The Mk9 has a modular telescopic arm with a maximum reach of about 6m. It can cross any terrain and climb stairways of 45° to reconnoitre suspect devices. The maximum speed of the Mk9 is 5km/hr. It has a unique design with a low profile three-fingered gripper. It can lift a payload of 150 kg.

Other features of the Mk9 include its stance change facility, rocker bogie system to overcome obstacles and turret rotation up to +/215°. The EOD equipment has seven firing releases and an emergency arm self-righting feature. The vehicle has built-in diagnostics and a revised cable management system. The UGV also features an integral ceramic cutter and a two-speed gearbox.

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g SURVIVING ALL ATTACKS INS SHIVALIK, India's first indigenously built multi-role stealth frigate ship, was commissioned by the Indian Navy on April 29. The Shivalik class will figure as the main frigates of the Indian Navy in the first half of the 21st century. With India's long coastline and an everexpanding exclusive economic zone, the Shivalik is assigned to do the big duty of defending the country's mainland as well as maintaining its sea lanes of communication.

With the commissioning of INS Shivalik, India has joined the top club of developed countries having the capability to build stealth warships, namely, the US, the UK, Russia, France, China, Japan and Italy.

INS Shivalik is privileged to don the latest stealth features calculated to outsmart the enemy with its low radar cross section, be it of the hull, infra-red or sound signatures. This stands out as a high benchmark related to the creative design endeavours of our visibly enterprising Directorate of Naval

Design (DND) that has, since 1954, designed 17 warships of different classes, from which 80 combat units were built for India's Navy. Currently, there are four designs from which 11 warships are under construction.

The weapon-sensor fit of the Shivalik is controlled through a Combat Management System called 'CMS-17', designed and developed by the DND, and manufactured by Bharat Electronics at Ghaziabad (UP). The system allows a manifestly seamless integration of the Shivalik's systems with the weapons and sensors of ships of other fleets, thereby translating the concept of 'Co-operative Engagement Capability' (CES) into concrete reality. With its ability to detect, engage, and destroy surface, air, and sub-surface assets of the enemy at extended ranges, this stealth ship represents a highly significant combat-potential.

With a modern LM2500 Gas Turbine propelling it to speeds in excess of 30 knots (or over 55km/h), INS Shivalik replicates a true greyhound on the seas.

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The ship's requirement of electric power is provided by four diesel alternators, which together produce 4MW of electricity -- sufficient enough to light up a small town. The power generation and distribution on board is controlled through an 'Automated Power Management System' (APMS), which enables the ship an optimal use of electricity at all times. The two multi-purpose helicopters scheduled to be inducted on Shivalik will provide it with an enhanced surveillance and attack capability.

The Shivalik is effectively fortified with a proven defence mechanism against nuclear, biological, and chemical attack. Its state-of-the art 'Total Atmospheric Control System' (TACS) ensures filtration of the air going into the ship at all times. It also ensures a near total removal of radioactive, chemical or biological impurities, thereby protecting the crew and the on-board systems even when the ship is operating in areas contaminated by nuclear, biological or chemical agents.

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GLOBAL ARMED services are increasingly seeking the benefits of virtual (simulated) over-conventional training.

In recent years, virtual training has been one of the largest areas of investment for defence companies. Not to speak of the NATO countries, even countries such as India and South Korea have begun investing in their militaries on virtual training.

As the technology has improved, more and more countries are seeing virtual training as a realistic long-term investment. Virtual training is turning out to be one of the most popular systems for defence contractors to invest in. All of the major companies, including Boeing and Northrop, are investing heavily in this technology. There are a lot of smaller companies, like IP Video, that are investing in it, but in a much more specific way by focusing on their own particular area of expertise.

The obvious advantage with the virtual training is the lower cost. If one factors in everything required, aircraft training, for example, is incredibly expensive. You have to consider the cost of buying, maintaining and fuelling the planes and on top of that paying the pilots and engineers, not to mention the obvious dangers involved in live military exercises.

With virtual systems there is a lot less that can go wrong, and they can be maintained by a very small group of people. In the long run, the cost of a virtual system is lower, and it is a lot safer. Of course, real-life training is required in certain areas. It is, however, possible for simulations to replace and improve certain areas of training and as the technology advances, replace more and more training exercises.

The biggest improvement of recent years is the overall usability of the sys-

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tems. The most important aspect is to achieve as realistic a scenario as possible. Obviously, as computer and visualisation technology improves, the system becomes ever-more realistic. The more realistic it is, the better the training. High definition (HD) has also made a huge difference to the realism of training scenarios.

3D is seeing the biggest investment at the moment. In the past all training systems were in 2D and, in the same way as it has with movies, the next logical step was to create the same environments in three dimensions.

There are some systems around that already used 3D but they are rare and cannot compete with the current systems. It is going to be one of these advances whereas the commercial side of the technology improves, the military training side will start to take full advantage of it.

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T

FROMHISTORY

An excerpt from an old book entitled The Sepoy by EDMUND CANDLER, first published in 1919 and republished by Lancer Publishers in 2008, delineates the peculiar caste consciousness of the Indian soldiers serving the British army

THE RAJPUT AND BRAHMAN (77)

HE RAJPUTS, of course, are par excellence the military caste of Hindustan, and there is no more glorious page in the annals of chivalry than the story of that resistance to the successive waves of Moslem invaders. Three times the flower of the race were annihilated in the defence of Chitore.

But they never yielded, for the Rajput would take no quarter. He was true to his oath not to yield; and when the odds against him offered no hope of victory, his only care was to sell his life dearly and to cut his way deep into the ranks of the enemy before he fell. The women, too, refused the dishonour of survival. Led by their queen and the princesses they passed into a sepulchre of flame. Others fought and fell beside their husbands and sons, and their courage was celebrated by “the pen of Akbar, whose testimony to the spirit of the race does not fall short of the Rajput bards.

The Rajput of today does not hold the same pre-eminence in the army as did his ancestors. His survival in the land he held so bravely is due to the British, who only came in time to save the race, exhausted by centuries of strife, from conquest by more vigorous invaders. Yet it was on the Rajput and the Brahman more than on any other class of sepoy that we depended in our early campaigns. They fought with us against the French; they helped us to crush the Nawab of Oudh. They served with conspicuous gallantry in the Mahratta, Nepal and Sikh wars.

They formed part of the gallant band that defended the Residency at Lucknow. And later in Egypt, Afghanistan, and Burma, they maintained the honour they had won. Had there been class regiments in those days the izzat of the Rajput and Brahman sepoy would have been higher than it is.

The Brahmans only enlist in two class regiments of the Indian Army. The type recruited is of magnificent physique; their breeding and pride of race are reflected in their cleanliness and smartness on parade. They are fine athletes, expert wrestlers, and excel in feats of strength; and they have a high reputation for courage. Unhappily they have seen little service since the class system was introduced, and so have not had the opportunity of adding to a distinguished record.

For various reasons the Rajput does not enlist so freely in the Indian Army as his proud military traditions might lead one to expect. The difficulties of recruiting are greatest among the classes which should provide the best material. The difference of quality among Rajput sepoys is to a large extent determined by the locality of enlistment.

Those from Rajputana and the neighbouring districts of the Punjab as a rule rank higher than recruits from the United Provinces and Oudh. The western Rajputs, generally of purer blood, are not so fastidious about caste, while farther east, especially Benares way, June 2010

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BRAHMINS ARE OF MAGNIFICENT PHYSIQUE; THEIR BREEDING AND PRIDE OF RACE ARE REFLECTED IN THEIR CLEANLINESS AND SMARTNESS the Rajput is inclined to become Brahmanised. Brahmanism, whatever its merits, is not a good forcing ground for ‘the military spirit.

Exclusiveness is the bane of “the twice-born,” especially in war. On service the essentials of caste are observed among Rajputs and Brahmans as fastidiously as in peace-time, only a certain amount of ceremonial is dispensed with. At ordinary times the high caste Hindu when he is away from home prepares his own dinner and eats it alone. Before cooking he bathes. Complete immersion is prescribed, preferably in natural running water.

Where there is no stream or pool he is content with a wash down from a bucket; and as he washes he must repeat certain prayers, facing the east. While eating he wears nothing but his dhoti (loin cloth) and sacred thread; the upper part of his body and his feet are bare.

FOOD PECULIARITIES A small square is marked off for cooking.

This is called the chauka. It is smoothed and plastered over, or lepai-ed as he calls it, with mud, or cowdung when available. Should anyone not of the caste touch the chauka after it has been prepared, all the food within its limits is defiled and must be thrown away.

There are two distinct kinds of food, kachi which is cooked in ghi, and pakhi which is cooked in water. Kachi may be eaten only at the chauka; but happily for the sepoy pakhi may be carried about and eaten anywhere; otherwise caste would completely demobilise him. Amongst Brahmans the caste convention of cooking their own food and eating it alone dies hard; and I know a Rajput class regiment in which it took ten years to introduce the messing system.

Company cooking pots were accepted at first, but with no economy of space or time; for the vessels were handed round and each

man used them to cook his own food in turn. The Brahmans are even more fastidious. I remember watching a class regiment at their meal in the Essin position; their habit of segregation had spread them over a wide area. Each man had ruled out his own pitch, and a Turk would have taken the battalion for a brigade. Only in the case of near relatives will two men sit at the same chauka. In spite of the cold, one or two of them were naked except for the loin cloth. The others wore vests of wool, which (apart from the loin cloth) is the one and only material that Brahmans may wear at meals. All had first bathed and changed their dhoti according to the prescribed rites, and carried water with them to wash off any impurity from their feet when they entered the chauka.

FOOD PRECAUTIONS There are many prescribed minutiae of ritual which vary with each sect and sub-tribe, but these are the main inhibitions. Even on service the Hindu preserves the sanctity of the chauka, and if not a Brahman, takes with him a Brahman cook, relaxes nothing in regard to the purity of his water from contamination by the wrong kind of people, and would rather starve than eat meat killed in an unorthodox way. The mutton or goat that the Mussalman eats must be slain by the halal or the stroke at the throat, and the mutton the Sikh or Hindu eats by the jatka or stroke at the back of the neck. The most elaborate precautions were taken in France and were observed in Mesopotamia and elsewhere, to

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keep the two kinds of meat separate. There was once a complaint that the flies from the Muhammadan butchery settled on the meat prepared for the Hindus, and the two slaughterhouses were accordingly removed farther apart. Orthodoxy in this point is no mere fad, but a genuine pbysical need born of centuries of tradition. The mere sight of the wrong kind of meat is nauseating to the fastidious, and in cases where it is not physically nauseating, toleration would be extremely bad form. I think the story has already been told of the Gurkha subedar on board the transport between Bombay and Marseilles who, when asked if his men would eat frozen meat, replied, after consulting them, “Sahib, they will have no objection whatever, provided one of them may be permitted each day to see the animal frozen alive.”

On service, of course, as on pilgrimages under hard climatic conditions, there are dispensations in the ceremonial, though not in the essentials, of caste. Brahmans have fought for us from Plassey to the present day and their fastidious personal cleanliness has contributed to the smartness and discipline of the Indian Army. In early days, when the ranks of the Bengal regiments were filled almost entirely with high-caste Hindus, orthodoxy was maintained in spite of all the rigours of war. Today little has changed.

Bathing when the nearest water is an icy glacier stream is not indulged in now on a frontier campaign; and where there is no water at all the sepoy does not lose caste by the neglect of his ablutions. The Rajput as a rule will June 2010

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eat his meals with his boots and clothes on, as he has done no doubt whenever he has been under arms since the Pandavas and Kouravas fought at Delhi.

The fastidious caste ceremonial is discouraged in the Indian Army. It leads to complications at all times, especially on a campaign; and a good Commanding Officer prides himself on his men’s common sense and adaptability to environment. Yet there have been occasions, even among sepoys, when ritual and caste exclusiveness have been turned to disciplinary uses. Here is a story which is very much to the point. The first scene of this little drama was played in Egypt; the last on the banks of the Tigris.

THE JIWANS There was a company of Rajputs somewhere in the neighbourhood of Suez, which contained a draft of very raw recruits. Three of these youngsters and a particularly callow lancenaik were holding a picquet on the east bank of the canal when they lost their heads.

One of them blazed off at a shadow. He was frightened by the tamarisk bushes in the moonlight, and thought they were Turks’ heads. A panic set in. All four blazed into the scrub, threw down their rifles, bolted as if the devil were behind them, and were only held up by the barbed wire of their own outpost.

The jiwans were notoriously wild and jungly, and everything that a recruit should not be.

They had never left their village save for a few months’ training before they embarked on the transport in Bombay. A certain allowance

THE RAJPUT DOES NOT ENLIST SO FREELY IN THE INDIAN ARMY AS HIS PROUD MILITARY TRADITIONS MIGHT LEAD ONE TO EXPECT might be made for stupidity and bewilderment, sufficient in the case of extreme youth to waive the death penalty. Had it been a moving campaign; had the regiment been in actual contact with the enemy, these young men would have been “for the wall.” There is nothing else to do when soldiers go the wrong way. The O.C. and the Adjutant were considering how to deal with them when the Subadar-Major entered the orderly room.

The man was a veteran, with a double row of ribbons on his breast, and he had never let the regiment down in all his service. He begged, as a special favour, that Rajput officers should be permitted to wipe out the stain. “Leave it to us, Sahib,” he said: “we will put such an indignity on them, that there will not be a jiwan in the regiment who will shrink from bahadri* again.” The Colonel saw the wisdom of this. The Rajput izzat was at stake, and he knew his man. So the Indian officers of the regiment were deputed to deal

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with the case themselves, just as prefects at school take the law into their own hands and administer it with a much more deterrent effect than the headmaster with his cane.

The jiwans were tapped on the head with a slipper, the last ignominy that can befall a Rajput. After such disgrace they could not enter the chauka and mess with their caste companions. That is to say, they were socially excommunicated until their honour was retrieved. For nearly eighteen months they lit their outcast fire and took their meals apart at a measured distance from the chaukas -at such a distance that no ray of contamination could proceed from them to it.

RAJPUT PRIDE What had driven him to it. But the sepoys were very silent and reticent. All they would say was that it was “on account of shame.”

The boy who commanded his platoon, and who had been shooting with him in his district before the war, knows no more than I the processes of his mind. He is inclined to think that he decided at once, immediately after the sentence had been executed, to destroy himself when his regiment returned.

Or he may have turned it over in his mind day and night for more than a year, and in the end the sight of Hindustan resolved him.

When the idea of home became real and imminent, the thought became unendurable that he should be pointed at in the village street as the man who had been whi pped. In one case there is heroism; in the other a very human weakness; and in either case a tragedy of spirit that reveals the intensity of pride which is the birthright of the “twiceborn.”

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The Israeli factor

I

T IS natural that the foreign visits of the defence minister of a country like India come under intense international scrutiny.

And this scrutiny covers not only the countries he visits but also the countries he avoids. It is in this context that Antony’s continuous skipping of Israel despite repeated invitations raises more questions than answers.

By the time this column appears, Antony would have hopefully concluded a fruitful trip to Oman. The distance between Oman and Israel is approximately same between Srinagar and Kochi. He could have easily clubbed the visits to Israel and Oman together, particularly when he had put off his visit to Israel, long overdue, twice earlier. In fact, given the fact Prakash that last time it was the Israeli defence minister who had come to India, protocol demands that it is Antony’s term to be in Israel. It was arguably on this ground of protocol that New Delhi had urged Tel Aviv to defer a second consecutive visit by the Israeli defence minister (Ehud Barak) in 2008.

Is political inclination rather than pragmatic national interest of the country guiding Antony to avoid Israel, which is now its second-largest supplier of military hardware after Russia? One hopes that the so-called Leftist and Muslim factors that favour a complete rupture of ties with Israel do not influence him.

It was under a Congress Prime Minister — Narasimha Rao — that India had extended full diplomatic recognition to Israel. The end of the Cold War brought the collapse of the Soviet Union, India’s principal military and diplomatic patron, forcing India to search for alternative alliances. New Delhi also recognized that the staunch support it had given to the Arab world over the Israeli-Palestinian conflict had not been reciprocated to India over the Kashmir dispute.

Finally, with Muslim-dominated Egypt doing normal business after the launching of the Madrid Peace Process in 1991, the ideological foundations of India’s policy towards Israel had eroded. If countries like the US, Russia and China could do business with both Israel and the Arabs, there was no reason why India would not do so.

Be that as it may, the relationship between India and Israel has deepened over the recent years. The two countries now share several congruent interests and have acted to expand

cooperation in a number of key areas. There is that vital area of counterterrorism and intelligence cooperation.

Counterterrorism remains one of the greatest areas of cooperation between the two countries, stemming from the constant terror threat facing both States. Counterterrorism cooperation has involved the exchange of information on terrorist groups, their finances, recruitment patterns, training, and operations; it has also entailed comparing national doctrines and operational experience. India and Israel have also focused their efforts on border security: Israel has sold India movement sensors and other monitoring equipment to track infiltration across the Line of Control Nanda (LoC) between India and Pakistan in the Jammu and Kashmir region. Israel also sold unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to India for high-altitude surveillance and has offered to provide anti-insurgency training for Indian forces in the area as well.

Secondly, and this is more important, the two countries have strengthened their military cooperation. India and Israel share certain strategic objectives: qualitative (and in some cases quantitative) military supremacy over their rivals, and autonomy in technology and weapons procurement. Neither India nor Israel can realise these goals without international assistance. With the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, New Delhi began looking to other nations for military equipment. As a result, Israel has become one of India’s most important sources of sophisticated weapons and military equipment.

India has also taken advantage of Israel’s global reputation for upgrading outdated weapon systems and Soviet-era military hardware. Israeli missiles, rockets, radar and communication equipments, ships, assault and sniper rifles, night-vision devices, and border monitoring equipment have all been added to the Indian arsenal. It has been reported that between 2002 and 2007, India purchased over $5 billion worth of military weapons and systems from Israel (with $1.6 billion in 2006 alone), making Israel India’s largest worldwide supplier of defence equipment.

Considering all this, one hopes that Antony will be in Tel Aviv sooner rather than later.

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