Geopolitics_November_2010

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INDIA AND ISRAEL: A STEADY AFFAIR

geopolitics VOL I, ISSUE VII, NOVEMBER 2010 RS 100

D E F E N C E D I P L O M A C Y S E C U R I T Y

THE IMPORTANCE OF

AIRCRAFT CARRIERS ENSURING

NUCLEAR SECURITY

THE TERMINATOR Robots as new generation soldiers are to bring about a military revolution

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Indira Gandhi International Airport

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COVER STORY P36

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The future warriors Time is not far off when machines, rather than men, will fight wars.

PERSPECTIVE (P32)

FOCUS (P46)

THE KING ON OCEAN

SEA UNDER THREAT

Aircraft carriers remain a prized possession of leading navies of the world. But their production is time-consuming and costs, increasingly prohibitive.

Piracy in the Indian Ocean is proving to be a major challenge to maritime security. What are the countermeasures?

SPOLTLIGHT (P18)

DEF BIZ (P28)

INTERNAL SECURITY (P52)

Nuclear safety

Striking deals

Leadership is the key

India’s defence market may be enticing, but prospective sellers finds the entry tough because of Indian laws.

Most of the abuses associated with the paramilitary forces is due to poor command from the top.

Securing and protecting nuclear assets without taking any risk is a daunting task.

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November 2010

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THE FATAL IMPACT (P10) Drone attacks inside Pakistan are killing people in large numbers.

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THE CASE OF HOMELAND SECURITY (P55) India's internal security can no longer remain understated.

CHINA’S NEXT EMPEROR(P68)

THE SHIELDING POWER (P71)

The change of leadership at the highest level in China is not far away.

India is developing capability to counter incoming ballistic missiles.

DIPLOMACY (P60) A SERIOUS RELATIONSHIP Major global and regional issues have brought India and Israel closer, not to speak of the mutual advantages accruing from their economic and scientific cooperation.

CORRIGENDUM

g GEOPOLITICS

In the October issue of Geopolitics, due to transmisson error, on page 11 the flag of China was displayed at the place meant for the flag of India. We deeply regret the error — Editor

Editor-in-Chief

K SRINIVASAN

GLOBAL EYE (P6)

THE RISE OF CHINESE NAVY PLA NAVY IS GOING FROM

Editor

PRAKASH NANDA

STRENGTH TO STRENGTH. IT IS

Publishing Director

KEEPING OTHER NAVAL FORCES

ROHIT GOEL

OF THE ASIA-PACIFIC REGION

Director (Corporate Affairs)

ON THEIR TOES.

RAJIV SINGH

Conceptualised and designed by Newsline Publications Pvt. Ltd., from D-11 Basement, Nizamuddin (East), New Delhi -110 013, Tel: +91-11-41033381-82 for NEWSEYE MEDIA PVT. LTD. Managing Editor: TIRTHANKAR GHOSH All information in GEOPOLITICS is derived from sources we consider reliable. It is passed on to our readers without any responsibility on our part. Opinions/views expressed by third parties in abstract or in interviews are not necessarily shared by us. Material appearing in the magazine cannot be reproduced in whole or in part(s) without prior permission. The publisher assumes no responsibility for material lost or damaged in transit. The publisher reserves the right to refuse, withdraw or otherwise deal with all advertisements without explanation. All advertisements must comply with the Indian Advertisements Code. The publisher will not be liable for any loss caused by any delay in publication, error or failure of advertisement to appear.

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gONLOOKER THE EQUATION THE BUDDING US-Vietnamese friendship is evident from the number of high-level contacts between the two nations.

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton arrived late October for her second visit in four months (to attend the East Asian Summit — an annual forum of the region's major countries includ-

“We should leave the war to the writers.

Even my generation likes the Americans more. If you polled the army, they'd still vote for the US.”

WRITER BAO NINH The author of a haunting novel about the conflict titled The Sorrow of War who served as a private during the Vietnam War

nuclear energy technology.

Vietnam is eager to buy US military technology, “We have been next to China for 4,000 including sonar equipyears. We cannot just up and move. In ment to track Chinese order to survive, however, we need submarines. Hanoi is also friends.” involved in talks to obtain spare parts for its arsenal PHAM CHI LAN of US-made UH-1 IroDistinguished economist quois helicopters, an icon of the Vietnam War. And ing India. In fact, Vietnam ushered the United States into the “The Vietnamese are trying to find a way group). of telling the Chinese, 'We've got powerWeeks earlier, Secreful friends, but it's a very delicate game'.” tary of Defense Robert M. Gates was in Ho Chi NAYAN CHANDA Minh City. In August, the The author of Brother Enemy, the classic Defense Department study of Vietnam's relations with China held its first security dialogue with its counand editor of Yale Global terpart in Hanoi. Three US naval vessels have visited Vietnam in the past year. More defying Chinese pressure, three American than 30 Vietnamese officers are studying at oil companies are carrying out offshore explo“It is always good to have a new friend. It ration in Vietnam's is even better when that friend used to be waters. our foe.”

Vietnam's charm offensive is not limited NGUYEN CHI VINH to the United States.

Vice Minister of Defense Hanoi has strengthened its ties to its old US military acadepatron, Moscow, and last year contracted to mies. Vietnam and the United States are buy six Kilo-class submarines. Another Chihammering out an agreement that would nese rival, give Vietnam access to American India, is “(Vietnam is) not only important on its in talks to own merits, but as part of a strategy help Vietaimed at enhancing American engagen a m ment in the Asia Pacific, and in particular upgrade Southeast Asia.” its fleet of Mig-21 HILARY CLINTON fighters.

US Secretary of State France, Vietnam's former colonial master, is considering selling warships to Hanoi. Vietnam also reached out to Asian powers, such as South Korea and Japan, dropping visa requirements for their citizens five years ago.

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TURKEY'S CATCH-22 W I L L TURKEY say no to N A T O ?

That's the question that worries the North Atlantic Allies, particularly the Americans.

NATO's missile-defence programme — an ambitious project to protect mainland Europe from nuclear-armed missiles — is getting its finishing touches. The idea is to stop frontline actors like Iran that may acquire the technology in the next few years. The plans involve radar stations that can detect ballistic missile launchers, and advanced interceptor missiles which can shoot them down.

Turkey is the critical cog in the wheel.

Geographically, it is the best placed to detect Iranian ballistic missile launches early. That would mean joining the defence shield and radar placed on its soil.

The deadline to say yes to plan is November 19 and it's something that's churning the Turkish political landscape. Recep Erdrogan, Turkey's Prime Minister is torn between his Islamist supporters and his country's western allies.

Even if Turkey does join the missiledefence shield, some experts question if it will actually make Europe safe. Theodore Postel and George Lewis, among the world's top authorities on missile defence, have warned that apparently-successful tests of interceptor missiles were conducted "in carefully orchestrated scenarios that have been designed to hide fundamental flaws".

Recep Erdrogan has made improving his country's relationship with Iran a central foreign policy. Turkey voted against a slew of new sanctions imposed by the United Nations on Iran this summer in an effort to slow down its nuclear programme.

Turkey has long sought EU membership — a demand supported by the UK, but resisted by Germany and France. Islamists in Turkey, angered by the rebuff, have been arguing their country's interests will be best served through new alliances with its eastern neighbours.

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O N L O O K E R

OUT OF THE SHADOW

SIR JOHN Sawers, the head of Britain's Secret Intelligence Service (MI6) late October delivered what he said was the first public address by a serving chief of the agency in its 101-year history. His appearance reinforced a trend among Britain's spy bosses to shed the traditional cloak of their trade. Sir John's appearance followed a first public speech by Iain Lobban, the director of Britain's electronic eavesdropping agency, and several appearances by Jonathan

Evans, the director general of MI5, which is responsible for domestic security in contrast to MI6's focus on overseas operations. In 2006, Dame Eliza Manningham-Buller, Evans's predecessor, made headlines when she gave a speech warning of the range of terrorist threats Britain faced. Sir John spoke to the media on the 'real role' of MI6. Here are a few nuggets:

ON SECRECY Secrecy is not a dirty word. Secrecy is not there as a cover-up. Secrecy plays a crucial part in keeping Britain safe and secure. If our operations and methods become public, they won't work. In today's open society, no government institution is given benefit of the doubt all the time.

ON ACQUIRING INFO These are not abstract questions just for phi-

losophy courses or searching editorials; they are real, constant operational dilemmas.

Sometimes there is no clear way forward. The more finely balanced judgments have to be made by ministers themselves. If we know or believe action by us will lead to torture taking place, we're required by UK and international law to avoid that action.

“And we do, even though that allows the terrorist activity to go ahead. Some may question this, but we are clear that it's the right thing to do. It makes us strive all the harder to find different ways, consistent with human rights, to get the outcome that we want.”

FATHER AND DAUGHTER: (right) John Sawers and (left) his daughter, Corinne, on Facebook posing with a Kalashnikov rifle. The gold-plated weapon — similar to those found among Saddam Hussein's — treasures after the 2003 Iraq invasion is a decommissioned Kalashnikov and is believed to have been a gift to Corinne's father as a memento of his time in Iraq. This is her profiler picture on Facebook, causing acute embarrassment to her father!

UK-France collaboration BRITAIN AND France are moving forward towards a new phase of defence cooperation prompted by the need to save money and yet project a sense of well-being and force globally. Britain and France, both nuclear powers, have Western Europe's most capable armed forces. But both nations are cutting public spending to rein in big budget deficits, making it vital to get the best possible value in defence spending.

British Defence Secretary Liam Fox said: "Too often, the debate on defence within Europe has been focussed on what the EU should or should not do. When nations can benefit from co-operation without losing sovereignty, they should aim to do so. "There are many reasons why this co-operation makes sense. We are Europe's only nuclear powers.

We have the largest defence budgets and are the only two countries with real, large-scale expeditionary capability. We are both permanent members of the UN Security Council, and leading members of the G8 and G20. And there is no better time to deepen our relationship with France. Since President Sarkozy

came into office we have seen a vigorous ments. The range of operations that we can do attempt to bring Europe and America closer today we will simply not be able to do in the together, and to bring France deeper into future. In particular, it would place at risk: NATO. ❁ The reduction in overall surface ship num"This relationship will be taken to a new bers means we will be unable to undertake level -- the closest it has ever been," Fox wrote all the standing commitments we do today. in The Sunday Assuming a presence in UK waters, the Telegraph newsFalklands and in support of the deterrent is paper. However, essential we would have to withdraw our he said, "It is presence in, for example, the Indian Ocean, a push for an Caribbean or Gulf.

EU army, ❁ Deletion of the amphibious shipwhich we ping will mean that a landed force will oppose." be significantly smaller and lighter E a r l i e r, and deployed without protective vehiFox caused a cles or organic fire. We could not carry stir with a out the Sierra Leone operation again. letter to ❁ Deletion of the Nimrod MR4 will Prime Minlimit our ability to deploy maritime i s t e r forces rapidly into high-threat areas, Cameron increase the risk to the Deterrent, where he compromise maritime CT (counter terrorism), remove long range search made clear and rescue, and delete one element of our his dismay at Falklands reinforcement plan. defence cuts: In mid-October, Cameron's coalition gov``Our deciernment announced Britain's 36.9 billion sions today pound defence budget would be cut by 8 will limit per cent in real terms over the next four severely the years as part of efforts to curb a record options availpeacetime budget deficit. able to this and all future governFRIENDS OR FOES: Cameron (left) with Liam Fox (right)

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A NAVY WITH DESIGN The Chinese Navy has set a tearing pace of modernisation and hegemony across South East Asia, South Asia and the Gulf. India needs to get its act together if it has to be a match to them, feels UDDIPAN MUKHERJEE

A

T PRESENT the economic strength and the concomitant military wherewithal of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) do seem to threaten the geopolitical climate of South and East Asia. China has miles to tread before it can claim a hegemonic status for itself in Asia and as long as the American ‘hyperpower’ exists, the prospects are unlikely to be bright for it. Nevertheless, this quarter the displacement of Japan by the PRC as the second largest economy in the globe along with an imposing People’s Liberation Army (PLA) ready for combat role makes China a formidable state-actor in the world and Asia in particular.

The Chinese have certain compulsions, especially the domestic demand for energy and the sustaining of the export-oriented economy. Consequent fallout of that is the extension of its role in the world arena; in the form of devising oil and gas pipelines cutting through the Central Asian topography, the forays into Africa and the creation of naval zones.

The so-called ‘String of Pearls’ has surely spread its tentacles far and wide and the stance adopted by the PRC in the anti-piracy maneuvers off the Somali coast adduce further proof of its covetous glances. Hence it becomes contextually relevant to evaluate the current growth of the PLA Navy (PLAN) as a vital arm of the Chinese Army. The allusion of the Indian counterpart becomes pertinent too as it reminisces a bitter border struggle with the former in 1962.

When the "Commander-in-Chief" Hu Jintao inspected the PLA in 2009, there were some significant implications. First, it was

timely as the event marked the sixtieth anniversary of the triumph of Communism.

Second, after China successfully hosted the Olympics barely a year ago, the showcase of military strength was another feather to its ‘red cap’. It was an indication of the juggernaut of the Dragon which the world, and Asia and Japan in particular, needed to note. Third, the choice of the locale was not merely coincidental that about two decades back, Tiananmen Square was witness to a ruthless suppression of a student-intellectual movement which could have shaped up as an urban insurgency if not tamed forthrightly.

Incidentally the PLAN had already exhibited its might in April the same year in Qingdao, headquarters of its Northern Sea Fleet. In that venue, probably for the first time, PLAN came up with its public demonstration of nuclearpowered submarine fleet.

To get the facts straight, China depends and naturally so, on maritime transportation for 90 per cent of its imports and exports. In 2007, China Daily asserted that economic transactions across the sea accounted for nearly 10 per cent of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Furthermore, PRC aims to become the largest shipbuilder in the globe by 2015.

To compound these, the Chinese oil demand has reached close to 8.5 billion barrels per day and at present, 40 per cent of China’s oil comes by sea. Also, it imports one-third of its oil from the African continent and hence that necessarily makes Gulf of Aden an important area to command.

Adding to these, China’s trade with the European Union is through the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). Interestingly

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for India, 40 per cent of the vessels transiting the Indian Ocean are Chinese. This is a pointer to the fact that in case of a skirmish with its northern neighbour, India may exercise the privilege to go for a blockade of the Chinese ships. And this is no mere hypothetical scenario. In the light of political posturing of PRC with regard to Gilgit-Baltistan and an undiplomatic visa regime, India seriously needs to upgrade its military machinery vis-à-vis China.

In fact, to obviate such circumstances, PRC has by choice gone for strategic littoral locations starting from the facilities at the Hainan Island and thereafter touching the Woody Island east of Vietnam, Sittwe in Myanmar, Chittagong in Bangladesh and meandering through Hambantota (Sri Lanka) and Gwadar (Pakistan) has augmented its Sea Lines of Communications (SLOCs) up to the Strait of Hormuz.

And though the PLAN’s recent presence at the Gulf of Aden has been logically to negate November 2010

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ON GUARD: PLAN has an ambitious plan to upgrade and enlarge its presence the circumnavigation of Chinese vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, it does not conceptually belie the physical extension of the ‘String of Pearls’. Furthermore, security of the SLOCs around the Horn of Africa is imperative for Chinese economic interests and more so when about one-fifth of over thousand Chinese commercial vessels were targeted by the Somali buccaneers in 2008 itself.

To begin with, on 26 December 2008, PRC disbursed two fleet destroyers Wuhan and Haikou towards the Gulf of Aden and continued to replenish the fleets periodically. Recently, in March 2010, missile destroyer Guangzhou and supply ship Weishanhu joined the missile frigate Chaohu at the same venue to supplant the last deployment. Weishanhu is PLAN’s largest supply ship and a Fuchi-class 23,000-tonne vessel. It can carry onboard over hundred crew members and is replete with 37

mm guns. Expectedly enough, PRC perceives these anti-piracy operations as nice opportunities to prepare for any future "Taiwan Crisis".

A critical component embedded with the present formation is the Satellite Tracking and Communication System. PLAN’s Control Centre monitors all relevant Chinese merchant ships through a Ship Movement Tracking System (SMTS). Hence, video-based communications with the PRC Shanghai Maritime Safety Administration is the order of the day. A webbased IP communication network has also been developed to allow the crew members maintain contacts with mainland China.

The obvious advantage of SMTS is that real-time directives emanating from the civilian authorities in Beijing can pass onto the theatre directly and ipso facto, the civilian-military symbiotic relationship would continue undiminished.

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The above factual analysis might go down as hawkish if some more light is not thrown on it. Though China is a party, along with India and Russia, to the Shared Awareness and Deconfliction (SHADE) programme of antipiracy in the Gulf of Aden, it advocates a ‘patrol zone-division’ concept of managing the nautical territories. That is, PLAN is not very eager to work in unison with multinational agencies, rather is a votary of separate areas being carved out for respective nation-states. It is not averse to intelligence-sharing though.

What does this attitude of the PLAN indicate? Is it coyness in coming into contact with much more developed navies of NATO and the US, or a sense of loss of esteem in working under the command of seemingly inferior navies like Pakistan or is it an overt proclamation of its prowess as an independent naval power? Andrew Erickson in a paper at the November 2010

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A WIDE SPECTRUM: The PLAN ambition is to upgrade every segment of the navy Strategic Studies Institute said a "Cold War" type mentality in such an approach. Whatever be the real motive of the PLAN, it certainly does not resonate with the lofty claims of a harmonious world as propounded by the new diplomacy of China.

On August 16, 2010, the U.S. Defense Department released its annual assessment of China’s military. The report expressed concerns over the lack of transparency in PRC’s military growth. However, China’s defence ministry was dismissive of these allegations.

Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, complained that China’s suspension of military-to-military contacts with the US made it even harder for Washington to assess Beijing’s ‘real’ intentions. Beijing cut off military ties with Washington earlier this year to protest a $6.4-billion US arms sale to Taiwan; viewed as a direct transgression into PRC’s "One China Policy".

It goes beyond sermons that India must bolster its Navy, not only to thwart any Pakistani policy of sea-denial in the Arabian Sea region, but to actually counter both the covert and overt Chinese threat perceptions. The INS Kadamba (Project Seabird) in the province of Karnataka assumes fundamental significance in this regard. The base has a sea front of over 26 km and a total area close to 45 sq

km. The deep-water port can accommodate the entire Western Fleet. Hence, the project needs to be expedited for, when completed, it is set to be the largest in Asia.

"The Indian navy of 2020 will essentially be a three dimensional force (aka Varuna’s Trident), built around the core of two aircraft carrier task forces and closely networked through a dedicated communications satellite", said India’s former Navy Chief Admiral Arun Prakash, 2020 is approaching fast and one can only hope that his vision materialises, even if not in entirety. Nevertheless, as of now, Russia has assured that it will keep to the time period specified in the contract for the retrofit of the Admiral Gorshkov aircraft carrier, charging a whopping $2.3 billion. In line with the contract, Gorshkov will be handed over to India by 2012.

According to a February 2010 report published by the NTI, the Indian Navy currently operates 16 submarines. The backbone of the fleet is formed by ten Kilo-class Type 877EM — or Sindhugosh-class — units that are being progressively retrofitted to house the Klub/3M-54E Alfa cruise missile system.

In addition to its fleet of diesel-electric

STRONG TIES: Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, presenting a memento to Chinese Navy Commander Admiral Wu Shengli

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submarines, India is also in the process of developing an indigenously built nuclear-submarine capability. It is noteworthy that PLAN already has a fleet of six active nuclear-capable submarines.

Procrastination has been synonymous with indigenous defence development in India. Likewise, the Advanced Technology Vessel (ATV) submarine, work on which began in the 1970s, is yet to come out from the cobwebs of logistical complexities. However, in July 2009, India launched its first ATV submarine, the INS Arihant. The vessel is deemed to undergo at least two years of sea trials before being commissioned into the Navy.

As per an August 12 report of Ria Novosti, INS Sindhurakshak is being upgraded under a direct contract between the Zvezdochka shipyard and the Indian defence ministry, signed on June 4, 2010. The upgradation program includes a complete overhaul of the submarine and is to cost around $80 million.

There is probably no gainsaying the fact that the Indian Navy appears to be leaning toward Russia in its development paradigm. However, that should not deter us from pursuing our goals of a defence "Autarchy". Actually, the writing is clearly on the wall. As the lethal PLAN cruises ahead, the Indian Navy hardly can afford to schlep.

And if that happens, then no homilies can safeguard India’s strategic interests in a futuristic mode.

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THE YEAR OF including the New York Times, Washington Post, and Wall Street Journal, accounts by major news services and networks - the Associated Press, Reuters, Agence France-Presse, CNN, and the BBC - and reports in the leading English-language newspapers in Pakistan- the Daily Times, Dawn, and the News - as well as those from Geo TV, the largest independent Pakistani television network".

The authors — Peter Bergen and Katherine Tiedemann — have also constructed a map, based on the same reliable press accounts and publicly available maps, of the estimated location of each drone strike. In the online version you can click on each pin to see the details of a reported strike with the red border representing the extent of Pakistan's tribal regions in the northwest of the country. The study is called you've got it - Year of the Drone!

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NUMBER OF U.S. DRONE STRIKES IN PAKISTAN

Map and graph courtesy: www.counterterrorism.newamerica.net

T

HERE WERE 188 drone attacks into Pakistan between 2004 and October 2010 according to www.counterterrorism.new america.net.

The study reveals that the "188 reported drone strikes in northwest Pakistan, including 92 in 2010, from 2004 to the present have killed approximately between 1,218 and 1,879 individuals, of whom around 897 to 1,344 were described as militants in reliable press accounts. Thus, the true non-militant fatality rate since 2004 according to our analysis is approximately 28 per cent. In 2010, it is more like eight per cent."

The research provides sources and analysis with a real updation that draws only on accounts from reliable media organisations with "deep reporting capabilities in Pakistan,

Average deaths from U.S. drone strikes in Pakistan, 2004-2010

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THE DRONE PANORAMA

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VESSELS WILL

BE BUILT BY CHINA FOR MARINE law enforcement and safeguarding marine rights in the next five years.

China believes it has a vast coastline, but the number and the tonnage of vessels for marine law enforcement are small.

China’s fleet does not meet the standard of one vessel per 1,000 square kilometers and there is a huge gap compared to other developed countries, said Li Lixin, director of South China Sea Branch of State Oceanic Administration of China. Therefore, the decision to add capacity.

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NUMBERS GAME

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FIRST AIR-GROUND LIVE AMMUNITION

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DRILL CONDUCTED by the Tibet Military Command of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) recently near the foot of the snowcapped mountains on the Tibetan Plateau at an altitude of over 4,700 meters, according to PLA Daily. Troops of air force, armour, artillery and electronic warfare divisions participated in the exercise.

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SUBMARINE WITH BULGARIA

IS BEING put to rest after a vote by the country’s parliament. On the same day the country’s defense minister lifted its ban on women serving on submarines. As one analyst said: “It’s the thought that counts.”

FLIGHT FROM PARIS MARKED FIRST PASSENGER PASSENGER CARRIER to fly into the capital direct from western Europe since before the Gulf War. The inaugural flight by France's Aigle Azur, consisted of French officials and was largely ceremonial.

The airline won't begin regularly scheduled flights for another two to three months but if successful, the flights would mark an important milestone in Iraq's economic development.

Some carriers, such as Aus-

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trian Airlines, fly from Western Europe to the Kurdish city of Irbil. Regional airlines such as the Abu Dhabi-based Etihad Airways, Bahrain's Gulf Air, the Beirut-based MEA airline and Turkish Airlines fly to the Iraqi capital. But there are no direct passenger flights between Baghdad and Western Europe.

Lufthansa was slated to begin regular flights between Munich and Baghdad on September 30 but cancelled them due to a lack of customer interest.

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The lack of major European carriers flying to Baghdad shows the difficulties the country is having to attract major foreign investments.

Although some western companies bid on the country's first round of oil licensing last year, it was only for the biggest and safest fields.

Attempts by Iraq's national carrier, Iraqi Airways, to launch flights to London last April were swiftly squashed when lawyers for neighbouring Kuwait tried to confiscate the inaugural plane after it touched down in London to settle debts from the 1990 invasion by Iraq of Kuwait.

THE BIGGEST deal yet between a Chinese and an Indian company.

Signed between Reliance Power and Shanghai Electric Group Co Ltd (SEC). The deal is for supply of 36 coal-fired thermal power generation units, spare parts and related services over a 10-year period.

SEC will supply boiler, turbine and generator packages for 30,000 MW capacity of coal-based power at six plants including the 3,960-MW ultra mega power project at Krishnapatnam, the 5,940-MW project in Chitrangi, and the 3,960-MW project in Tilaiya. This fiscal, Chinese firms, like Dongfang Electric, Shanghai Electric and SEPCO, are poised to commission around 4000 MW of new units.

Security implications: In a scenario where relationship between the two neighbors often nosedives, India may well be saddled with a slew of power generation machinery with no support from manufacturers.

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1 8 NUCLEAR POWER PLANT IN VENEZUELA

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WILL BE built by Russia.

Russian President Dmitri A. Medvedev said that the United States should not object because Russia’s intentions were “absolutely pure and open.” The deal was announced during a state visit to Moscow by Venezuela’s president, Hugo

Chavez “I don’t know who will shudder at this,” Mr Medvedev said at a meeting with Mr Chávez, coyly noting the possibility of American concerns about transferring nuclear technology to Mr Chavez’s government “The president said there will be countries in which this will provoke different emotions, but I want to say specially that our intentions are absolutely pure and open,” Mr Medvedev said.

The deepening of Russia's nuclear cooperation with Venezuela marks only one of dozens of nuclear deals for Russia in recent years. Russia’s commercial interests lie in building nuclear power reactors and selling fuel around the world. As a legacy of the cold war, Russia has 40 per cent of the world’s uranium enrichment capacity, far more than it needs for its domestic industry.

NUMBERSGAME

NEW NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS WILL DOT THE ENGLISH COUNTRYSIDE

UK ENERGY Secretary Chris H u h n e announced the decision and said half of Britain's energy needs would come from renewables by 2025, but the proposed 10-mile tidal barrage

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across the Severn — which would have met 5 per cent of the country's electricity needs — was too expensive at an estimated £30 billion.

He added: "I'm fed up with the s t a n d - o f f between advocates of renewables and of

ARE IN TRAINING TO BE THE FIRST WOMEN TO SERVE ABOARD US SUBMARINES.

THESE WOMEN will begin serving on four US submarines in December 2011, the US Navy announced recently. The subs on which they will deploy are the USS Wyoming and USS Georgia, USS Ohio and USS Maine.

The Navy said it will not identify the women until they have completed their submarine training. The 24, chosen from graduates of the US Naval Academy, ROTC programmes and Officer Candidate School, began their training in July, the military said. Three women will serve aboard each sub at any one time, two as submarine officers and one as a supply officer. The subs have crews of 154. The Wyoming and Maine are ballistic-missile submarines and the Ohio and Georgia are armed with Cruise missiles. Each of the submarines has two separate crews — known as the blue and gold crews — that rotate duty time so the subs can spend the maximum amount of time at sea. The submarine force is the last of the Navy's surface forces to allow women to serve. They have served on noncombat surface ships since 1973 and combat surface ships since 1993.

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nuclear, which means we have neither. We urgently need investment in new and diverse energy sources."

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LEOPARD 2E TANKS

FOR UP to three billion Euros (4.1 billion dollars) is the deal that Saudi Arabia will sign with Spain at the conclusion of Saudi Arabia's deputy defense minister's visit to that country. It would be a record deal for the country's defense export industry.

Spain signed a military cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia in June 2008, seeking to strengthen relations particularly in training and scientific and technical cooperation. Up to now cooperation has been focused on training Saudi pilots on the Eurofighter at the southern Spanish air base of Moron.

IS THE NUMBER THAT WAS SUCCESSFUL

THE NUCLEAR-CAPABLE Bulava intercontinental missile successfully test-fired by Russia late October.

The launch comes after a string of embarrassing failures brought the programme to a halt for 10 months. The missile was fired early morning from Dmitry Donskoy submarine in the White Sea in northwestern Russia, and hit the Kura firing area on the Kamchatka peninsula on the Pacific Ocean,

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6,000 kilometers (3,700 miles) away. The Bulava, which can be equipped with up to 10 individually targeted nuclear warheads, has a maximum range of 8,000 kilometers. The missile is designed for use with Russia’s new Borei class of nuclear submarines like the Yury Dolgoruky and Alexander Nevsky. Analysts have said the vessels risk being worthless unless the Bulava works.

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AN ANTIQUATED POLICY Many specialists in the geospatial industry describe India’s remote sensing policies as “antiquated”. In a first-person piece, THOMAS SNITCH outlines why it is time for the policy to be completely overhauled

I

IMAGES OF earth taken by satellites in outer space are stunning. They allow us to see the world from hundreds of kilometres above the earth and, while they are beautiful to admire, they also provide a treasure trove of information about what lies below.

In many ways, we have all become ‘Google-ized’. We can get on our computers and focus in on nearly any point on earth with a high degree of accuracy and clarity. There are commercial imagery satellites that can now provide an image of a cricket bat lying on the pitch. These are not military satellites with a national security purpose but commercial satellites, which can make one half metre resolution images available to anyone who wishes to purchase them.

Access is near universal.

With a clear exception of businesses, universities, students, think tanks, research firms and other private sector entities in India.

The entire world uses the newest, most up-to-date satellite imagery for transportation needs — road building, mapping, the placement of subway stations and rail tracks, and for three dimensional airborne approaches to airports. In agriculture — crop measurements and growth rates, planting schemes, irrigation planning, forestry and pest management.

Crucial questions about the effects of global climate change

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can be analysed by studying images of deforestation, coral reef destructions, coastal erosion, and glacier melt.

The fact is that the use of the most advanced satellite imagery is limited only by one’s imagination. New uses arise almost daily.

Except in India where the sale, distribution, and use of imagery are controlled by a set of non-transparent, obtuse and dated policies based on faulty premises.

While there is ample evidence to suggest that India desperately needs access to this type of information for development purposes, the Government of India stubbornly and steadfastly refuses the Indian private sector access to this international set of data.

Current Indian remote-sensing policy dates back to 2001. It requires any seller, other than an Indian government entity, to obtain a license to sell or distribute imagery with a resolution of less than 5.8 metres.

The best imagery that is now commercially available worldwide can show you the cricket bat but India would like to keep it so (tight that) anything smaller than a bus cannot be determined. For years, the Government of India claimed that these license requirements and sales restrictions were needed for ‘national security’ reasons. The government demanded that commercial providers of imagery obtain pre-approval of the precise images that would be delivered so that sensitive areas could be ‘masked’ or blurred. The rationale was that potential terrorists would not be able to focus on particular areas and that masking would deny the terrorists the November 2010

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g GUESTCOLUMN imagery they need to plan any attacks.

In the meantime, the entire world has been given complete and total access to Google Earth and other imagery data bases.

The Mumbai terrorists did not obtain the imagery they used from a licensed Government of India sale. They acquired the images of Mumbai from a regular laptop computer, probably in a cybercafé in Pakistan. Moreover, I doubt they would have been fooled had the Taj Mahal Palace Hotel in Mumbai been ‘masked’ on satellite images.

As one who works in the commercial satellite imagery field for many years, I can state that it is nearly, if not completely, impossible to obtain a license from the Government of India and the National Remote Sensing Centre [NSRC] to sell or distribute imagery to legitimate end-users anywhere in India. A license request, properly documented and completelly filled out, falls into a black hole. There is no transparency in the process; there are no timelines for actions by NRSC; and no real or identifiable criteria for assessing whether a license will be approved.

NRSC is informed of the buyer, told what specific imagery they have requested, and have been provided with complete details as to the ultimate end use of the imagery.

Without exception, every commercial request for an NRSA license that I have ever known of has been summarily denied with little or no justification. What is really curious, however, is that during the licensing process, the Indian imagery buyer is often or most times contacted by the commercial arm of the Indian Space Research Organisation, Antrix. They are informed that the license to purchase foreign imagery has been denied, but the good news is they are able to purchase Antrix imagery.

A commercial imagery provider supplies all the market research and identifies potential customers to NRSC for a license and this information is then given to Antrix to exploit.

This is called maintaining a monopoly position in the marketplace under the false guise of national security policy.

While there are thousands of legitimate possible end uses of advanced satellite imagery in need of such information, Indians are denied access in order to keep a tidy little monopoly in place. I know of no other nation that operates in this manner in regards to requests for satellite imagery from their citizens and legitimate indigenous business concerns.

In late August, I was asked to give a speech to the Bangalore Space Expo about the dilemma between the growth of commercial satellite providers and their sales

NEED FOR OVERHAUL: Sound remotesensing policy could give a major fillip to various developmental programmes in India and the real need for free or low-cost imagery in many parts of the world. Imagery can be expensive and, yet, there are truly instances when cost should not be a concern.

It is not an either of situation.

When the earthquake hit Haiti last April, the world’s satellite imagery operators were quick to offer any and all imagery that was available to the UN and other global relief agencies. The same has occurred during the flooding in China and Pakistan in the past two months. While it is difficult to get this data to first responders in the field, all would agree that, more importantly than a sale, providing the imagery for free is simply the right thing to do.

I serve on Board of the Geoeye Foundation, a non-profit educational institution, whose mission is to support student’s research projects through grants of archived geospatial imagery and to support NGO’s working in humanitarian support and disaster relief with no cost imagery. In the past two years, we have provided over 100,000 square kilometres of satellite imagery data to hundreds of academicians, researchers, students, and non-governmental organisations.

The cost to the end-user? Nothing — we give it to them for free.

We are currently supporting a team in Mongolia searching for the tomb of Genghis Khan, malarial studies in Mali, a fisheries project of Lake Niassa, Mozambique, home to more than 1,000 species of fish, as well as working to identify human rights abuses in Sudan and Zimbabwe where the UN is not

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able to effectively operate.

These are just a couple of projects where the Geoeye Foundation provides free imagery on an ongoing basis. Unfortunately, if an Indian researcher or a student applies to the Geoeye Foundation for free imagery, I must turn him down unless he has an NRSA license. Therefore, we routinely send out letters to dozens of needy students and academicians, throughout India, telling that under existing Indian policy, we cannot give them access to free satellite imagery for their projects, studies, or dissertations.

Does this make any sense?

After my speech in Bengaluru, the Scientific Secretary of ISRO made the statement that Indian policy has ‘nothing to do with giving pictures to schoolchildren’. I am in complete agreement since imagery requirements for India are much more serious than this.

An audience member then asked when India might begin a realistic review of the existing 5.8 metres licensing requirement.

The Secretary replied that the requirement could be brought down to .8 metres — when ISRO had the capability to deliver imagery at that resolution.

If national security demands licensing at 5.8 metres resolution, how can it now say we only have to control up to .8 metres?

The ISRO Scientific Secretary has now confirmed, with those remarks that Indian remote-sensing policy is based on the financial opportunities needed to sell Indianacquired satellite imagery and almost nothing do to with real national security concerns. This is unfortunate because it deprives India of access to the world’s best geospatial imagery for the sake of a few rupees.

President Obama is visiting India in November and I hope that he will be able to raise this issue with Prime Minister Singh.

Mr. Obama may wish to ask the Prime Minister about the real disconnect between existing remote-sensing policy and the demands of the real world. The United States stands ready to assist India with the challenges inherent in the development process. However, it is difficult to be helpful when one’s hands are tied behind one’s back.

Mr Obama should ask Prime Minister Singh about the satellite imagery issue and ask whether it makes sense to him that US companies cannot give away free imagery to Indian students.

It would be very interesting to hear the Prime Minister’s response.

(Dr Thomas Snitch is advisor to the geospatial imagery industry. He is based in the US) November 2010

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MALE OFFICERS SEEK PERMANENT COMMISSION THIRTEEN MALE Indian air force (IAF) officers have approached the Armed Force Tribunal seeking permanent commission as was granted to female officers appointed prior to 2006, following a Delhi high court order earlier this year.

The air force officers have petitioned the Delhi High Court that denying permanent commission to men by the air force is illegal, arbitrary, discriminatory, and is liable to be set aside.Citing the high court order of March, in which women officers were granted permanent commission, the petition states: “SSC [short service commission] officers commissioned prior to the change of policy in 2006 cannot be deprived of the opportunity to be considered for permanent commission.

“The change in policy that decided not to grant permanent commission to any of the SSC officers have been introduced only in November 2007, and cannot be applied retrospectively to them who were commissioned much prior to 2007,” the petition states.

Charging the IAF with discrimination, the petition states, “The petitioners have already put in 9-10 years of service are being denied the opportunity of grant of permanent commission on the ground that there is no requirement. But, on the other hand, 100 new and untrained officers are being commissioned every year, which is discriminatory in nature.”

MODERNISATION ON TRACK

Arms and Pakistan

CONCERNED OVER the mounting criticism about arms procurement projects being stuck in bureaucratic bottlenecks, cumbersome procedures and general apathy, the defence ministry (MoD) has emphasised that it will no more slacken the modernisation process of the armed forces.

“We hope to top Rs 60,000-crore allocated for capital expenditure (largely meant for acquiring new weapon systems and platforms) in the current fiscal...We will not surrender any funds this year,” declared defence secretary Pradeep Kumar recently.

In fact, added Kumar, MoD has even managed to get supplementary grants, hiking the overall defence outlay in the 2010-2011 fiscal from `1,47 crore to `1,49 crore.

The defence secretary revealed how many procurement projects have already been inked or in the pipeline ranged from tanks, missiles, submarines and frigates to

DURING HIS recent visit to the United States, Defence Minister A K Antony conveyed to the American authorities India’s concerns about supply of American arms to Pakistan since a portion of them is always diverted against India.

“We feel that even though the U S is giving arms to Pakistan to fight terrorism, our practical experience is (that) it is always being misused. They are diverting a portion against India”, Antony argued.

It may also be noted that during his visit, which was at the invitation of US Defence Secretary Robert Gates, Antony pointed out that though of late the overall Indo-U.S. defence relationship was expanding, export control restrictions was another “matter of concern” for India.

“We want an early solution to that (export control restrictions),” he said, adding that defence bodies like Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) are still on entities’ list.

He said that in the area of defence procurement, “Now, our approach is rather than (a) buyer-seller relation, we want technology transfers, and if possible co-production and joint production.”

radars, AWACS (airborne warning and control systems), additional Sukhoi-30MKIs and transport aircraft.

However, knowledgeable security watchers are of the opinion that while Indian Air Force(IAF) and Navy' modernisation plans are more or less progressing ahead, the Army continues to grapple with critical capability gaps in areas like artillery, air defence, aviation, night-fighting and the like.

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November 2010

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g IAF HELICOPTERS AND UN MISSION IAF HELICOPTERS currently serving in UN missions in Congo and Sudan will return to India shortly, primarily to augment the transport fleet and in support of the Army in desert terrains along the borders with Pakistan.

On an IAF proposal citing its helicopter fleet being stretched to its limits, the Defence Ministry wrote to the External Affairs Ministry in June this year that the 17 Mi-17 medium lift helicopters, eight Mi-35 and Mi-25 attack in the UN missions in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Sudan should be de-inducted and brought back for internal security duties.

While the Mi-17s are likely to augment the transport fleet of the IAF in view of four such helicopters busy

serving in logistics role in the country's anti-Naxal operations in central India, the attack helicopters would be used to provide support roles to the Army troops deployed in the deserts of Rajasthan along the Indo-Pak borders.

The Mi-35s will get back to Suratgarh, its home base. These will be refurbished and re-painted in IAF colours. Suratgarh will also become home for a Mi-17IV unit in May- June next year, as part of the IAF's plans to strengthen the transport helicopter fleet in the deserts.

Mi-17IVs will also be based in Srinagar in Jammu and Kashmir following the Suratgarh deployment. Officials have larified that the attack helicopters that would be released by the UN would not be used in the anti-Naxal operations.

The attack helicopter's task has increased within India of late and there is tremendous amount of need to get more helicopters for use by the IAF internally. India is buying 80 Mi-17 helicopters from Russia was for supplementing the IAF's transport tasks and in aid of civilian authorities for flood relief and casualty evacuation.

“MAJOR IRRITANTS” TO INDIA’S SECURITY ON THREE separate occasions in recent days, three heavyweight personalities managing the country’s defence have pointed out that while India believed in peaceful coexistence and a stable neighbourhood, Pakistan and China continued to be potential and major adversaries.

Delivering the 15th Field Marshal Cariappa Annual Memorial Lecture, organised every year to mark the Infantry Day celebrations, the Defence Minister AK Antony hinted strongly at China and Pakistan while saying, “Our neighbours are building their military capabilities at a feverish pace. Thus, to successfully meet such challenges, the need for us to be vigilant and prepared at all times”.

However, Army chief General VK Singh

was not so diplomatic. While ruling out the possibility of all-out conventional war with the neighbours in near future, he was categorical that “China and Pakistan are two irritants to India’s security”.

Singh was addressing a seminar, organized by defence think tank Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS).

Similarly, addressing a press conference ahead of the IAF’s 78th anniversary, Indian Air Force (IAF) Chief Air Marshal P V Naik did say that India was cautiously watching China’s Defence modernisation, More importantly, he expressed concern at the “obsolescence levels” of the IAF systems and equipment, saying about half of these were obsolete.

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Safety of sea lanes DEFENCE MINISTER AK Antony has emphasised that India is committed to fighting the “serious challenge” of piracy and in favour of “cooperative approaches” for ensuring the security of sea lanes in the Asia-Pacific region, which is “one of the most important drivers of global economic growth”.

Addressing recently the first Association of Southeast Asian Nations plus eight (Asean+) defence ministers’ meeting in Vietnam capital Hanoi, Antony said piracy was “a serious challenge for the world community”.

“The Indian Navy is actively engaged in providing anti-piracy patrolling and escort operations in the Gulf of Aden for over two years now.

India is committed to working together with other countries in the efforts to address piracy,” he said. Incidentally, it was after 15 long years that an Indian defence minister visited Vietnam.

Usually, China is very sensitive when an Indian defence minister makes a trip to Vietnam, with which it had fought an unsuccessful war in 1979.

The French agenda

AHEAD OF French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s India visit in December, Paris is eyeing closer strategic and military ties with New Delhi. And towards this, the French Navy has promised to bring its nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle for a joint exercise with the Indian Navy.

France’s military chief Admiral Edouard Guillaud, who has just concluded his visit to India, revealed that France ‘considers strategic partnership with India essential’ for global and regional affairs.

It may be noted that at Mumbai’s Mazagon Docks French-designed Scorpene submarines are under construction. The nuclear subs being constructed as per a $4 billion deal of 2005 are behind schedule by over two years due to delays in the supply of supplementary parts at the Indian shipyard.

During Sarkozy’s visit, India and France are likely to sign a $2-billion contract for the upgradation and modernisation of 51 Mirage 2000-H fighter jets. They may also finalise a contract with nuclear group Areva that has already signed a memorandum of understanding for the construction of two reactors at Jaitapur in Maharashtra.

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SAFEGUARDING INDIA’S NUCLEAR ASSETS

Creating the goods is one thing; but protecting it and having a foolproof as well as secure environment to maintain it is the key to being a mature nuclear power, argues RAJ MEHTA

I

NDIA, A declared nuclear power since May 1998, has the following nuclear assets in place: a publicly declared “No First Use (NFU)” nuclear policy; an apex civilian organisation, the National Command Authority (NCA) to order its implementation; a nominated military organisation for holding and delivery of nuclear weapons, the Strategic Forces Command (SFC); an evolving apex-level Command, Control, Communication, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (C4ISR) structure; an arsenal of ready nuclear weapons of varying kilo tonnage, type and effect; a triad of vectors (at varying stages of readiness) to carry nuclear bomb loads by air, land or sea, as well as the indigenous capability to develop, test and refine the entire gamut of nuclear weaponisation. It also has a burgeoning civilian

nuclear energy generation programme (19 functional reactors, four under construction, with several more planned) for which the Indo-US nuclear deal has just been approved by Parliament.

Since the nuclear age began in July 1945, around 2000 nuclear weapons have been detonated for testing and demonstration purposes. The world has since then been plagued with civil nuclear accidents, military accidents or near accidents involving nuclear bombs; vectors carrying nuclear bombs; fuel transportation accidents, and sabotage and hijacking of nuclear fuel.

Attacks or threatened attacks on nuclear facilities of an enemy country have also taken place/planned. A recent and most serious threat that has emerged is termed “Unrestricted Warfare” by China. It carries the possibility of wrong computer-generated orders

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being deliberately conveyed by hostile agencies using net-centric warfare as a weapon.

RECENT NUCLEAR LAPSES IN USA Three recent examples of military led, near nuclear mishaps in America are listed below, to starkly illustrate why the subject of nuclear asset safety is of importance for an emerging nuclear power like India.

A B-52H bomber departs from Minot Air Force Base (AFB) In a leak to the Pentagon's news service, Military Times published on September 5, 2007, it was reported that a USAF B-52 strategic bomber which took off on August 30, 2007 from Minot Air Force Base (AFB) in North Dakota, was 'mistakenly' loaded with six fully armed nuclear tipped AGM-129 Cruise missiles November 2010

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An example is the Palomares hydrogen bombs incident in which four thermonuclear bombs fell over Spain after a refuelling collision between a B-52 and a KC-135 refuelling aircraft.

WHAT WENT WRONG? To benefit the reader, let us as a test case, examine the Minot-Barksdale Bent Spear incident in which major security and procedural lapses took place and how these could impact on us:

NUCLEAR BOMBER: The B 52 has the capacity to travel across continents to deliver its lethal payload

and flew over mainland America for over three hours before landing at Barksdale AFB, Louisiana.

AGM-129 Cruise missile pylon being loaded onto the wing of a B-52 at Minot AFB (A rough parallel would have been moving such an aircraft from Srinagar to Bengaluru AFB. During the flight, the missiles were dangling from the fatigued and flexible wings of the B-52 aircraft, armed with 'dialable' W80-1, 5 to 180 KT warheads, ready to fire except for a simple fail/safe switch under the pilot's control. The warheads carried 60 times the destructive power of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombs. It was one of the worst breaches of US nuclear weapons security in decades).

An AGM-129 Cruise missile in flight. It carries the W80-1 nuclear warhead (In March 2007, the USAF “accidentally” shipped nose cones bomb fuses for nuclear Minuteman missiles to Taiwan as helicopter batteries. Then on June 21, 2008, the Financial Times, reported over 1000 US nuclear components as lost/misplaced due to faulty accounting/inventory procedures. On June 5, 2008, the US Secretary of Defence sacked the Air Force Chief, General Michael Moseley and Air Force Secretary, Michael Wynne. In addition, four senior com-

manders and 25 Air Force personnel were dismissed and Minot AFB decertified).

The US Department of Defence has catalogued 32 serious nuclear accidents since 1980. Besides these, more than 120 Navyrelated nuclear cases involving ships or submarines colliding at sea or, in some cases, submarine nuclear power units becoming unstable and the subs having to be abandoned stand documented. In August 2000, the Russian nuclear submarine Kursk was lost in the Barents Sea with its full crew.

NUCLEAR DISASTER TERMINOLOGY In order to understand the language which the USA uses for nuclear mishaps or near mishaps, let us see some examples. The term “Pinnacle” denotes an incident of apex level interest. When prefixed to classifications such as Bent Spear, it conveys the urgency of reporting. Thus, Pinnacle-Nucflash refers to detonation or possible detonation of a nuclear weapon which creates a risk of an outbreak of nuclear war. Bent Spear refers to incidents involving nuclear weapons, warheads, components or vehicles transporting nuclear material that are of significant interest. The Minot AFB case was categorised as a Bent Spear incident. Pinnacle-Broken Arrow refers to an accidental event that involves nuclear weapons, warheads or components.

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The nuclear warheads should have been removed before taking the missiles out from their storage bunkers.

The loading crew did not use the electronic scheduling system for tracking the warheads and, instead, used an outdated paper schedule.

The Minot AFB Munitions Control Centre did not cross-check and listed the cargo as unarmed AGM-129 missiles being dispatched for destruction to Barksdale.

The B-52 pilots also did not carry out final load verification.

Why were live missiles preloaded in clusters inside the bunker? Why were their Permissive Action Link (PAL) codes unlocked? Why were live and dummy warheads kept in the same bunker?

The need for two employees to oversee each step, mandatory bar coding, real time computer tracking, back-up paper trails, was violated.

The loaded missiles stood unguarded throughout the night of 29/30 August with the aircraft taking-off for Barksdale only next morning. Inspection by crew there brought the mistake to light.

Compassion overtaking professionalism was at the heart of the incident. In his standing orders for August 30, 2007, the Minot AFB Commander, Colonel Bruce Emig encouraged his troops to “enjoy a safe four-day-long Labor Day weekend”.

Storing nuclear warheads and conventional weapons next to each other was not a good idea.

In a book titled Unrestricted Warfare by two senior PLA colonels, Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui, they have advocated “a multitude of means, both military and particularly non-military, to strike at enemy countries”. The possibility of Chinese military hacking (false orders that appeared so real that the command structure at Minot AFB was deceived) is a real possibility discussed by Will Thomas in his revealing article, “Command Override: How Chinese Military Hackers Took Over A Nuclear-Armed B52.” A hacking story of great Indian interest is the same Chinese author's recall of the success achieved by hacker's codenamed “Milworm”. The authors say that November 2010

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g SPOTLIGHT “in order to protest India's nuclear tests, they penetrated the firewall of the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC) network; altered the home page and downloaded five MB of data. These hackers could be considered polite; they went only to a certain point and no further…”

Recent successful cyber attacks on India's most sensitive security-related establishments allegedly tracked to China lend substance to this capability.

THE WAY AHEAD Authoritative commentators feels: “The chances of an accidental, unintended or unauthorised nuclear attack are highest in South Asia of all places in the world.” There is thus a compelling need for the Indian nuclear establishment: political, military and scientific, to learn lessons from documented nuclear security mishaps/near mishaps/lapses and identify the way ahead for its safe and secure functioning.

To date, the Indian nuclear establishment, DRDO or connected armed forces execution agencies have not published details about their modus operendi, nor is the veil of secrecy likely to be lifted as they are outside the pale of the RTI(Right to Information Act). Nevertheless, even though the Indian nuclear road is less travelled the experiences of earlier travellers, specially the USA, have valuable lessons for our application.

Firstly, we need to take realistic stock of where we are today; organisationally, structurally and functionally. You cannot make a nuclear road map till you have a clear start point and designated “report lines” or pauses on a tight but implementable date timeline. The Chief of Integrated Staff to Chairman, Chiefs of Staff Committee (CISC) is best equipped to do so, as far as the Services are concerned. The technical stock taking is best handled by Chairman, Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) and bureaucratic stocktaking by the National Security Adviser (NSA).

Secondly, we need to prioritise the identified areas of improvement in terms of time, manpower, space, security, attainability, finances and any other constraints.

Thirdly, we need to establish methodologies both in writing and in practical functioning on how work should be done.

This will therefore include planning of needs, raw components, their transportation and stocking, manufacture, custody, inventory management, location and relocation, assembly, integration, arming, handing over, delivery and Post Damage Assessment (PDA).

CLASS OF ITS OWN: AGM-129 Cruise missile is a subsonic, long-range, cruise missile designed to carry a W80 nuclear warhead.

Fourthly, there is need for security in all its physical, electronic, manpower related dimensions across the entire spectrum of the nuclear establishment. Let us take an example. The Nuclear Button (popularly known as Football; also called the Presidents Emergency Satchel), is a specially equipped briefcase used by the President of the USA to authorise the use of nuclear weapons. Commonsense dictates that such a suitcase needs secure handling and regular testing even though it may not be required 24x7 in a NFU scenario such as ours. Related to the issue of security is what the Americans call “Use Control”. This is a set of well documented, redundant, multitiered security measures designed to prevent unauthorised access to nuclear weapons or their controlling software.

Fifthly, the internet abounds with cases of disorderly conduct by employees on nuclear establishment duties, drunkenness while on duty, forgetfulness, non-adherence to protocols, suicides, loneliness, lack of recognition, stringent working conditions, lack of family support due to prolonged periods of duty and so on. HR issues such as personnel selection, their management, monitoring, excellent pay and allowances, a good social life and planned relief from strenuous duties are therefore critical considerations.

Sixthly, the brilliant US protocols of establishing the Nuclear Management Information Systems (NMIS) which “interface with each other and provide the ability to track the location of nuclear weapons and components from cradle-to-grave” are worthy of urgent adaptation.

Seventhly, there is need for government to maintain “absolute control over nuclear weapons at all times.” Without explicit clearance from the NCA, nuclear weapons cannot be deployed or armed as happened unfortunately at Minot AFB. Eighthly, is the aspect of a civil nuclear disaster in reactors where the base raw

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material needed for fissile cores is produced.

What happened in Three Mile Island and Chernobyl when the reactor core partly melted due to malfunction is a nightmare situation that needs to be avoided. An infectious culture of absolute reliability is, on the contrary, needed.

Ninth, the likely effects of a fuel transport accident can also have huge consequences. In 1978, there were 27 major accidents in USA. Sabotage and hijack of nuclear fuel is not fanciful and can take place as has happened in the recent case of 63 trucks laden with explosives that remain untracked in the Madhya Pradesh/Rajasthan area.

Tenth, we need real-time, all-weather 24x7 redundant intelligence and surveillance systems that monitor the intent of our enemies to allow our NFU approach to survive first strike and then retaliate.

Eleventh, we need to avoid over-confidence which may result from our not having faced a truly serious nuclear crisis thus far, in spite of what researchers at the American University calculate at least 124 “hazardous incidents” at nuclear plants in India between 1993 and 1995. Equal prudence and over watch is needed at places where the components of our nuclear weapons are stored.

Lastly, in relation to nuclear power, safety is closely linked with both security and safeguards. Safety focusses on events leading to radiological releases from authorised activities. Security focusses on the intentional misuse of nuclear materials/facilities by non-state actors. Such facilities need hardening against anticipated terrorist acts. Safeguards are actions or protocols that need implicit compliance to prevent disaster or carelessness leading to accidents. This triad needs comprehensive looking into.

(Maj General Raj Mehta is a Chandigarhbased security analyst. He had an exposure to nuclear issues while in service) November 2010

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NUCLEAR FORENSICS: TOOL OF NEO-DETERRENCE? Can we stop the rogues from their dangerous adventures? Is there a way out? SITAKANTA MISHRA argues that it is possible

T

HE NUCLEAR deterrence advocates, basing their argument on the behaviour of nuclear-armed rational state-actors, have bloviated for lasting nuclear peace. To their credit, the world has not experienced any use of nuclear weapons, even once in anger for the last seven decades. But, when speculation on non-state actors’ interest in WMD is strong and they have remained viable entities of international discourse for sometime now, is it not prudent to renew the conventional nuclear deterrence by a revisit?

However, the fundamental question is, can terrorists be effectively deterred, if yes, how? Here the proposition is a neo-deterrence formulation where both state and non-state actors can effectively be deterred. Certainly the options and tools available for this are limited. One view is, use of cutting-age technology, like the nuclear forensics, would help tracing the slipped radiological materials, thereby deter through attribution.

Undoubtedly, deterrence strategists have started to take into account the phenomenon of non-state actors and their interest in nuclear arsenal. For example, Robert Galluci argues that a form of “expanded deterrence” against nuclear terrorism is possible, and points to the crucial importance of being able to define the nature and source of a terroristemployed WMD. In his formulation, the country which harbours the terrorists will be deterred if it is likely to transfer nuclear

weapons or material to non-state entities.

But how much control a country has over non-state actors who actually have no postal address? For example, how much control Pakistan has over Al-Qaeda? The neo-deterrence construct considers current international politics as bi-polar in which state and illegitimate non-state actors are two opposing poles. And a few states who harbour non-state actors or have deliberately adopted terrorism as a strategy are the fence sitters.

In worst case, if a nuclear detonation takes place, or dirty bomb is exploded, the biggest dilemma would be attribution: what is the source of the act? Can the plan, the men and material involved be traced or tracked before hand to deter? In such a dilemmatic environment, nuclear forensics would provide conclusive answers to attribution. It is the technology that analyses intercepted illicit nuclear or radioactive material and any associated material to provide evidence for nuclear attribution. By using advanced methods, it can trace out the material, its last legal owner, the route and the intended purpose. In simple terms, nuclear forensics is the conventional forensic tests applied to radioactive materials.

exploded a nuclear device. Agencies that are equipped and dedicated to conduct such specialised examination are: the Institute for Transuranium Elements (ITU), the European Commission nuclear research institute in Karlsruhe (Germany), Nuclear Smuggling International Technical Working Group (ITWG), and the IAEA to some extent participates in the exercise.

There are equally many instances where successful attributions have been performed.

In 1993-94, highly enriched uranium was located in Landshut, Germany, and after forensic tests, the source traced back to the Soviet Union. In April 2003, the ITU received four powder samples of Uranium from Czech Republic. Through the process of examining uranium content and isotope composition, chemical impurities calculation, age determination, reference information, it was traced back to the Scientific Research Institute for Atomic Reactors, Russia. Again in June 2003, the ITU received four uranium pellets from Lithuania and was successfully traced back to the theft of a fresh fuel assembly stolen from

NOT A NEW PHENOMENON Attribution technique, however, is not new. In 1949, analysis of airborne debris, retrieved at high altitude off the coast of China, convinced President Truman that Soviet Union had

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Ignalina power plant in 1992.

A TOOL FOR COUNTER-TERROR AND NON-PROLIFERATION

HOW PREPARED IS INDIA?

The chances of a full-fledged nuclear terror incident seem bleak as catching hold of a complete bomb is impossible as they generally are kept disassembled. Also fabricating a nuclear bomb requires state-level resources.

A most plausible scenario of nuclear terrorism would be the misappropriation of a smaller radioactive source of about nine grams (10,000 Curies) of Co-60 from a cancer radiotherapy unit and dispersed by five pounds of TNT. In such a scenario, nuclear forensics can greatly contribute in increasing the chances of failure for the terrorists seeking to carry a terrorist act involving nuclear and radiological materials.

Through its scientific methods, nuclear forensics can determine the origin of lost nuclear material and trace the point of diversion through interdiction for any nuclear attribution. Nuclear forensics also seeks to determine whether there are additional special nuclear and radiological materials endangering public safety and security available in the nuclear black market.

Thus with the application of nuclear forensics, policy-makers can develop essential inputs into the sources and methods of smuggled nuclear and radiological materials. The movement of radiological materials can effectively be monitored if such a material is captured on route, thereby the intended purpose of smuggle. Though future proliferators

Following the ‘culture of secrecy’, the scientific-political leadership in India is extra cautious to avoid unnecessary public panic as popular perception on anything radioactive is blurred; therefore, they prefer not to publicise the issue and India’s preparedness. Suffice it say, that terrorism is ubiquitous and nuclear facility and materials are scattered across the country. Also India is situated in between the Golden Crescent and Golden Triangle where drug trafficking takes place. There are many intelligence reports that suggest terrorists operating inside and outside the country have shown interest in nuclear smuggling. Even the domestic rebellious groups like Maoists might resort to such activities. Though it is extremely difficult to handle such materials as it amount to radiation, a group with suicidal purpose may resort to such an act.

Acquiring radiological material would not be difficult for any terrorist group if it decides to do so. They are used in numerous institutions like cancer treatment centres, food processing units, oil and gas exploration industry, road construction industry, steel manufacturing industry and academic/research centres located various parts of the country. The use of ionizing radiation sources for various applications in all these areas has registered phenomenal growth. But the security provided to those facilities is rather lax.

DAE EMERGENCY RESPONSE CENTRES 1) Mumbai-BARC (Nodal ERC) 2) Tarapur 3) Kakrapar 4) Kota 5) Jaipur 6) Narora 7) Shillong 8) Jaduguda 9) Kolkata 10) Nagpur 11) Hyderabad 12) Kaiga 13) Bangalore 14) Kalpakkam 15) Alwaye 16) New Delhi 17) Kudamkulam 18) Indore

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There have been many reported sporadic incidents of nuclear smuggling in and around India. In August 2003, three radioactive isotopes of Cobalt-60 were reportedly stolen from the tightly guarded Tata Iron and Steel Company (TISCO) in Jamshedpur. These apprehensions got further consolidated with the news that a uranium-based ash analyser had been stolen from the Coal Mines Planning and Designing India Limited (CMPDIL) Complex in Ranchi, Jharkhand, in December 2006.

Much before these reported incidents, there were some reports on smuggling of radiological material into India. In July 1998, the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) was reported to have unearthed a uranium theft racket when it seized 6 kg of uranium, and arrested two persons. Later, it reportedly seized 2 kg more as well as a 31-kg piece of plutonium, and arrested another person. In 1998, BBC brought out a report on the arrest of a politician, Maheswar Singh Deo, in West Bengal who was allegedly carrying “more than 100 kilograms of unrefined uranium”.

Indian intelligence officials suspected that the politician was part of a group smuggling unrefined uranium to neighbouring Pakistan.

Another incident of uranium smuggling, reported by BBC, was unearthed in 2001, when police arrested two men with more than 200 grams of semi-processed uranium in West Bengal. Police sources said the uranium was being smuggled into Bangladesh from the Jaduguda uranium mines in Bihar.

Stories of uranium smuggling, in both the Indian and international media are not new.

Especially, uranium smuggling from the Jaduguda mines was mentioned in the US government reports dating as early as the 1970s. More recent reports dealing with the international dimension of illicit trafficking in nuclear and radioactive materials have also pointed out that uranium ore stolen from Jaduguda mines found its way into Nepal, headed for the international black market.

Another report, authored in the fall of 2004 on nuclear trafficking routes, detailing trends in Southern Asia, offers the following information: “In 2001, smuggled uranium, confiscated from suspected terrorists in Balurghat, northern West Bengal, had been removed from the Jaduguda uranium mines in Bihar [now Jharkhand] and was planned to be smuggled across the Bangladeshi border.”

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PROBLEM AREAS

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The nuclear forensics technology is evolving and certainly could be an integral part of nonproliferation strategy. But it cannot be the panacea as it is a mid-stage effort. If successfully interdicted such materials on route,

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Indian Environmental Radiation Monitoring Network (IERMON)

Compact Aerial Radiation Monitoring System developed by BARC

states or non-state actors can effectively be deterred. Second, even if the smuggled material is spotted and traced to a particular country of its origin, it would be extremely difficult to identify whether the act is intentional or sheer negligence. Third, nuclear forensics will always be limited by the diagnostic information inherent in the interdicted material.

Criminals can manipulate and destroy clues for nuclear forensics to advance. It is also difficult for forensic experts to differentiate between materials that have similar source of production histories but are obtained from different locations.

Fourth, nuclear forensics and attribution process is premised upon a comprehensive nuclear database. But no country would agree to share information about its nuclear infrastructure. Whatever information they wish to share may not be authentic. Fifth, it is uncertain how much time one forensic investigation would take. One example is the HEU intercepted at the Turkish-Bulgarian border in May 1999. This investigation was the most thorough and far-reaching analysis ever conducted but took nine months to find out only that it is reprocessed uranium from high-burnup fuel. The attribution still remains incomplete.

Lastly, the nuclear forensic technology may be used by major powers for ulterior motives, to blame a country they wish by false allegation of nuclear smuggling.

emergency preparedness. The Aerial Gamma Spectrometry System (AGSS) developed in BARC is capable of quick impact assessment by aerial surveys. The system can be installed in an Mi17 helicopter for aerial surveys.

The Environmental Radiation Monitoring with Navigational Aid (ERMNA) system also developed by BARC for periodic mobile radiation monitoring of major cities and Emergency Planning Zones (EPZs) of nuclear power plants to generate baseline dose rate data. Also Compact Aerial Radiation Monitoring System (CARMS) are in use for remote aerial monitoring.

The environmental radiation monitoring systems (Indian Environmental Radiation Monitoring Network (IERMON) are available with data transfer facilities to Emergency Response Centres.

Lastly, there are 18 Emergency Response Centres located across the country equipped with latest technology to respond to a situation at a short notice. The Border Security Forces and Police personnel have been trained to detect radiological materials on transit.

However, one major difficulty is lack of experts who are skilled both in forensics and nuclear.

The Cabinet Committee on Security has allocated `285 crore to Defence Ministry in July 2010 for developing systems and equipment for protection against nuclear, biological and chemical (NBC) weapons and leakages.

According to Defence Ministry officials, “Under the project for NBC defence, DRDO has been tasked to develop quick and fast detection systems in case of an NBC attack on our vital installations and cities or leakage in any of the installations dealing with these materials.” “In case on any attack or leakages, such detection systems will help in finding the exact sources of contamination and the authorities concerned would be able to react in a much more effective manner.”

Aerial Gamma Spectrometry System (AGSS) developed in BARC

MAKING THE FORENSICS EFFECTIVE

THE PRESENT OPTIONS However, the authenticity of these reports can be questioned. Most of the above data are newspaper/website reports, which should be taken as of limited credibility. Also the amount of material smuggled is very small and unrefined, therefore, hardly sufficient to make any explosive device to cause nuclear terrorism.

On the other hand, the Indian nuclear establishment is confident of its skills and

Formation of an international nuclear forensics team to streamline with the nuclear capable states; Establishment of common protocols for collection of evidence and laboratory investigations; Facilitation of inter-laboratory forensic exercises worldwide; Development of an international nuclear database where states have to place encoded data; A negligence doctrine must be formulated as wedge against nuclear capable states in case of loss or theft of sensitive materials from their soil; and Nuclear forensics efforts should be supplemented by effective human intelligence and law-enforcement mechanism.

India must join and contribute according to its capacity to the international effort on nuclear forensics.

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geopolitics

DEF BIZ

Plus ❁ Barco and India

❁ KPMG on Defence offsets ❁ Jubilant into UAV

WILL IT WIN THE RACE?

Promotors of Eurofighter Typhoon are confident that it is the best to get Indian approval

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GEOPOLITICS

INDIA IS A KEY MARKET Barco, world leader in visualisation solution with niche capabilities in critical and tactical display system, has been operating for last 14 years in India and has been providing displays and security solutions to Indian forces and police organisations. Rohit Srivastava caught up with the company’s MD NALIN ADVANI. Excerpts from an interview:

Q

How does Barco view the India defence market?

Everyone in the defence industry is going to be in India. Indian forces are going for modernisation and it's our duty to serve them as we have been in India for 14 years. Also, 10 per cent work-force comes from India.

Tell us about your core competence?

Our USP lies in innovation — our solutions are the most optimum for our respective markets because of our focus on innovation and global scale.

Which are the areas of your interest in Indian Defence market?

Barco is actively into Battle Management System displays, ruggedised visualisation solution for all display systems, avionics diplays and near real-time solutions, provides building blocks for different solutions. Barco eyes India as a key market and that is why we will expand in India.

What are your plans on joint venture/codevelopment with Indian companies?

We are expanding ecosystem and channel structure in India and will add channel management capabilities.

How well integrated is Barco India in your global business? What is total market capitalisation and workforce of Barco India?

Barco Electronic Systems (P) Ltd. was formed in 1996 on a small scale with 50 associates in Delhi, a 100 per cent subsidiary of Barco Belgium.

Our mission included R&D as well as sales and marketing of projectors for the Indian Market.

We started production in 1997 with low-cost

CRT projectors. From CRT, we moved to manufacturing DLP projectors in 1999. The production capacity has grown manifold in the last few years; it is now manufacturing about 6000 projectors in a year in the state-of-art factory in compliance with all safety and quality norms.

Barco India is the only company in this industry which has manufacturing and after sales support available locally.

We have won Manufacturer's Association of Information Technology (MAIT) awards for excellence in exports of electronic/IT products for two successive years. Barco India has grown from 50 to 400 associates and is headquartered in Noida from where Manufacturing, R&D, and sales and marketing are operating. Apart from Noida, there are offices in Mumbai and Bengaluru and customer support in Kolkata and Ahmedabad. Barco has expanded its Noida, India-based operations with a new 10,000 square metre facility in 2007. This facility allows Barco to pursue the successful growth in all markets.

What are your new acquisitions. What new technologies have you developed recently?

We have acquired FIMI a fully owned subsidiary of Royal Philips Electronics' Healthcare business and a Belgium-based digital signage solutions company dZine. Through this acquisition, Barco significantly broadens its current offering of digital visualisation products with the addition of advanced software tools for content creation and management.

Where do you see Barco in ten years in Indian defence market?

In next 10 years, we will grow around 15 per cent per year.

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HUNT BEGINS FOR REFUELLING AIRCRAFT ALMOST NINE months after cancelling a contract to buy a new fleet of mid-air refuelling aircraft, the Defence Ministry has started a new hunt, with tenders for a fresh procurement being sent to global aviation companies.

Fresh requests for proposals (RFP) have been issued to aviation firms in the US, Europe and Russia for six tankers that are expected to cost around $2 billion.

The Finance Ministry had objected last year to the high cost and lack of commercial competitiveness in the contract that led to the selection of the European Airbus 330 MRTT aircraft. The contract was put on hold in September 2009 after the Finance Ministry questioned the need to purchase a new fleet of tankers other than the IL 78s already in service and objected to the high price of the European aircraft. The contract was finally cancelled in January, coming as a major blow to European consortium EADS, which was very close to bagging the estimated $2 billion deal to supply six refuelling aircraft for the Indian Air Force.

While the requirements have not been changed in the new tender, life cycle costs have been added to the RFP. In the last selection round, only two companies — European Airbus (EADS) and Russian Rosoboronexport — made it to the trials. This time, more are expected to take part. It will take at least two years for the Defence Ministry to select an aircraft as per the procurement policy.

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g INDIA TO SPEND $25B PLUS FOR STEALTH FIGHTER INDIAN AIR Force Chief PV Naik has said that since fifty 50 per cent of the equipment of his force had become obsolete, the country would eventually spend over $25 billion to induct 250 advanced stealth fifth-generation fighter aircraft (FGFA), on way to being codeveloped with Russia, in what will be the country’s biggest-ever defence project, to modernise the force.

With this IAF’s obsolescence rate will come down to 20 per cent by 2014-15 from the current 50 per cent or so. Each FGFA will cost over $100 million. This will be in addition to the huge investment to be made in co-developing FGFA as also the huge infrastructure post development.

The idea is to ink the contract when Russian President Dmitry Medvedev comes to Delhi in December. Though the Indian FGFA will be based on the Russian Sukhoi T-50 PAK-FA, which flew for the first time this January at the Komsomolsk-on-Amur facility in Siberia, it will be built to IAF’s specifications. It's already being touted as superior to the American F/A-22 ‘Raptor’, the world’s only operational FGFA as of now.

The 30-tonne FGFA will be a “swingrole fighter, with very advanced avionics, stealth to increase survivability, enhanced lethality, 360 degree situational awareness, smart weapons, datalinks, high-end mission computers” and the like.

AIRBUS, M&M IN JV AIRBUS MILITARY has signed an initial memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the Mahindra Group to set up a final assembly line for trainer aircraft for the Indian Air Force. Training is currently underway at Jamnagar. MoUs had also been signed with some other Indian companies but the "final choice" is yet

to be made. The tender is for 75 aircraft and the first 12 will be assembled in the facility of the country that wins the contract while the rest will be assembled in India. Airbus officials also expressed hope of initiating talks with New Delhi to see if it was interested in the A400M military air-lifter.

GE TO POWER LCA IN A last-minute twist, General Electric of the US has bagged the hotly contested $800-million tender to supply 99 engines for India’s Tejas Light Combat Aircraft (LCA). After both engines in the contest — GE's F-414 and Eurojet's EJ-200 — were found technically suitable, the F-414 has been declared the cheaper option.

The choice of the GE-414 engine boosts the chances of America's F/A18 fighter and the Swedish Gripen NG in the $11-billion tender for an Indian Air Force medium fighter. Conversely, it is a blow to the Eurofighter, which is powered by twin EJ-200 engines.

In the initial commercial bids, opened in mid-September, Eurojet ($666 million) had bid lower than GE ($822 million). But, after two weeks of

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intensive evaluation by a defence ministry price negotiating committee, GE has been ruled the cheaper option. After evaluation and acceptance of the technical offer provided by both Eurojet and GE Aviation, the commercial quotes were compared in detail and GE Aviation was declared as the lowest bidder. But further price negotiations and contract finalisation will follow.

Defence ministry officials have indicated that negotiations with GE will continue at least until mid-2011.

Thereafter, the US company would be given 121 days (plus an allowable extension of two months) to obtain permission from the US government to transfer technology to build the engine in India.

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KPMG: LIKELY DEFAULTS IN DEFENCE OFFSETS WHILE DEFENCE offsets in acquisitions worth tens of billions of dollars are being touted as the key to ushering in technology transfers, modernisation of the armed forces and enhancement of indigenous defence manufacturing capability, experts say it is becoming increasingly clear that there are serious hurdles in the process.

Top executives of audit and consulting firm KPMG, which has released a report on the Indian defence sector, have slammed aspects of India’s defence offset policy, warning that these are set to lead to huge defaults. Richard Rekhy, India-based head of advisory services at KPMG, and Marty Phillips, partner, advisory services, have argued that the foreign direct investment (FDI) limit of 26 per cent in the defence sector, and the government’s insistence that the entire offset value be spent within the defence sector itself, would prevent the policy from being implemented.

The present Indian policy mandates that foreign firms that win defence contracts of more than `300 crore in India procure equipment worth 30-50 per cent of the order value from within the country. “On the one side, you want

“ON THE ONE SIDE YOU WANT ACCESS TO TECHNOLOGY AND THEN YOU HAVE A POLICY THAT PREVENTS IT FROM HAPPENING. PEOPLE WILL PUT IT IN THEIR TENDERING BECAUSE IT IS MANDATED, BUT YOU WILL HAVE DEFAULTS. MY SENSE IS THAT OVER 60 PER CENT OF THE ORDERS WILL DEFAULT.” RICHARD REKHY HEAD ADVISORY SERVICES(INDIA),KPMG

access to technology and then you have an FDI policy that prevents it from happening,” says Rekhy. “People will put it in their tendering because it is mandated, but you will have defaults. Vendors have included clauses saying they will invest if the limit goes up. I can’t imagine why a Boeing or a Lockheed Martin will want to invest at this level... My sense is that over 60 per cent of the orders will default.”

It may be noted that Minister of State for Defence Pallam Raju has revealed that up to Rs.45,000 crore worth of offset deals are in various stages of development. This figure does not include the deal to procure 126 multi-role combat aircraft (MRCA) for the Indian Air Force.

It is also believed that the extent of qualifying offsets, which is currently limited to a list of 13 permitted categories of products manufactured

by Indian defence industries as contained in DPP 2008, is perceived as being limiting and restrictive. These provisions restrict an adequate realisation of the policy objectives. Ideally, offset credit, it is argued, should be afforded to purchases from Indian industry for products in sectors which have a direct bearing on the defence of the country, like commercial aerospace and internal security. The ambit of this category can later be expanded to make the provisions more enabling.

Bedsides, there are taxation issues, India has a complex taxation regime with a large number of taxes applicable at different stages of the manufacturing process. The tax regime is perceived as aggressive and bureaucratic in its application. For example, while the indirect tax laws provide various exemptions and concessions from payment of custom duty (on imports) and excise duty (on domestic manufacturing) of capital goods, machinery, equipment, spares, tools, etc. for use by the Armed Forces and defence sector, such benefits are specific in nature and have been restricted to certain types of equipment, machinery, etc. or to various programmes or development projects.

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HONEYWELL EXPLORES TIE-UPS

HONEYWELL’S AEROSPACE division is exploring opportunities for forging partnerships with Indian companies that are keen to address the demand for offsets in defence deals.

If Pritam Bhavnani, President of Honeywell’s Aerospace Division in India, is to be believed, Honeywell has developed a new engine for the Jaguar aircraft. “We have provided the new engine to Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. (HAL) and the Indian Air Force”, he told the media.

About Honeywell’s sourcing agreement with HAL for engines for turbo prop aircraft, Mr. Bhavnani said that the first phase of the project was almost over. In the second phase HAL is to supply 400 additional parts. The third phase is likely to be completed in 2011. The sourcing agreement between the two companies requires HAL to supply Honeywell 600 aircraft engines over a 10-15-year period. Honeywell employs 11,000 persons in India, constituting 8 per cent of its global workforce.

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g EUROCOPTER: 50 PER CENT BY 2015 EUROCOPTER AIMS to grab half the Indian civilian helicopter market by 2015 from 30 per cent now as demand grows in Asia’s thirdlargest economy, the CEO of its India unit, Marie-Agnes Veve, has said. The company expects to sell 20 civilian helicopters in India this year and 15 next year.

Of the total helicopters to be sold in 2010, the company plans to deliver 11 this year itself. The

INDIAN WARSHIP LAUNCHED IN ITALY A NEW warship built for the Indian Navy has been launched at an Italian shipyard Sestri Ponente yard in Genoa. Italian shipbuilder Fincantieri i9s Fincantieri had signed a 300 million euro contract in April 2008

to build two vessels. The INS Shakti tanker is the second of the two tankers built at the Italian shipyard. INS Deepak was the first to be designed and built in Italy and is in an advanced stage of trials before being delivered to the Indian Navy by year-end.

INS Shakti is expected to be commissioned within two years. Trials will start in December.

Both the INS Shakti and the INS Deepak have been built with double hulls to provide greater safety and prevent oil spillage.

sale of 20 helicopters would bring in 100 million euros ($137.4 million) on average. Veve believes that India would require 50 civilian helicopters a year by 2015.

Eurocopter will set up an engineering centre in the southern Indian city of Bengaluru next year.

The world's largest civil helicopter maker would also set up its own maintenance, repair and overhaul network in India in four to five years, Veve says, adding that headcount in India would be raised to about 90 by 2015 from 30 now.

JUBILANT+AERONAUTICS=UAV TO GIVE a filip to defence and homeland security forces combating terrorism, the $900-million diversified Jubilant Bhartia Group is set to manufacture unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in the country.

The group has set up Jubilant Aeronautics (JAPL), in which Israel’s Aeronautics is set to pick up a 26 per cent stake for an undisclosed amount, sources said. Aeronautics’, Israel’s leading defence corporation and the second largest unmanned systems provider in the world, clients include Israeli military, US Navy, government and private clients in USA, Canada, Greece, Poland, Angola among other countries.

It is believed that Aeronautics will pick up a 26 per cent stake in JAPL, which has been set up in Bengaluru, to manufacture UAVs to address the pressing needs in both defence and civil areas. The

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proposed JV will also look at the integration, maintenance, repair and overhaul of UAVs for both civil and defence applications.

JAPL is said to have applied to the FIPB seeking its nod to the equity investment by Israel’s Aeronautics.

While the exact cost of a UAV is not known, industry experts say that a basic UAV for civil use comes at $25,000-$30,000 or around `12 lakh. However, advanced UAVs required for defence purposes may cost over `2-5 crore.

This is the first major move by Jubilant Group into defence production.

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INTERVIEW

IT’S THE BIGGEST CAMPAIGN IN THE WORLD The Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) deal is entering into the last phase of selection. To know about the Eurofighter Typhoon, one of the main contenders in the race, ROHIT SRIVASTAVA caught on with DR. MATTHIAS SCHMIDLIN, Director of the Eurofighter Typhoon Campaign in India.

Q

The MMRCA bid is expected to be opened very soon.

How positive are you about bagging the deal?

Dr. Schmidlin - We are optimistic. Given its scale and strategic value, MMRCA is a highly complex tender and I must say that the Indian Air Force and the Indian MoD have been very thorough and professional during this international competition. It has been a very transparent campaign.

Eurofighter Typhoon is the most modern combat aircraft currently available on the world market. If India were to decide in favour of the Eurofighter, significant benefits will accrue for India. We have offered significant state of the art technology transfer for license building of the Eurofighters in India. All partners of the Eurofighter consortium - EADS, BAE Systems and Finmeccanica - are among the biggest aerospace and defence companies. The offset obligation is for 50 percent and we will go well beyond this requirement.

We have proposed projects where we are going to support India to boost its aerospace and defence industry.

We want India to collaborate with the Eurofighter partners to co-develop and co-produce future capabilities for this multi-role combat aircraft. Its capabilities can even be exported to other countries. This will help in the creation of a modern defence and aerospace industry in India. According to third party studies, 20,000 high skilled jobs will be created in India if the Eurofighter should be selected for the Indian Air Force. Our approach of plugging India in the global value chain of the Eurofighter programme and helping local industry attain key capabilities is in line with the Indian Government's goal of leveraging such strategic defence deals to advance indegenisation.Eurofighter has the political support from the Governments of Germany, UK, Italy and Spain to enter into a strategic partnership with India Life Cycle Costs (LCC) are going to play important role in selection. Tell us about the LCC of Eurofighter? What makes LCC of Eurofighter low?

Dr. Schmidlin - The true price of any combat aircraft depends on the total cost of ownership, not the initial purchase price. LCC can't be computed in just one year, we need to see the cost incurred over the whole life of the aircraft. Maintenance costs over a lifetime can easily exceed purchase price. Simply put, LCC include cost of acquiring, running, maintaining, and finally dismantling of the aircraft.

Eurofighter Typhoon was designed for low life-cycle

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g INTERVIEW costs and makes use of lightweight construction materials. Its airframe is made of over 80% composites, incorporating new-age materials like carbon fibre composites (CFC), glass-reinforced plastic, special alloys, etc. and deploys cutting edge component design to boost performance while at the same time maximize life.

Longer component life makes the aircraft less maintenance intensive which directly results in significant cost savings for the customer. With its unmatched reliability and high combat availability, Eurofighter offers the most cost efficient long-term solution to the Indian Air Force and the Indian tax payer.

How does Eurofighter intent to implement the offset obligations if it gets the deal? In what way does your company intend to help Indian industry through offset?

Dr. Schmidlin - The MMRCA has a 50 per cent offset requirement. At Eurofighter, we see this level of offsets as an opportunity to engage Indian defence and aerospace industry in a joint development & production effort. If we look at the Eurofighter programme in Europe, it is a collaborative programme which combines the expertise and resources of four nations and their top defence companies. Apart from these four leading national defence players, Eurofighter boasts about 400 suppliers.

In total, one hundred thousand people are directly contributing to the programme in Europe.

We submitted the Eurofighter offset offer in August 2008. Since then, we already signed more than 20 MoUs with major Indian defence companies both public and private. We are keen on bringing key capabilities to the Indian industry and then leverage it to develop cutting edge military solutions for Eurofighters in the future.

Another important example of our long-term strategy for India is the consultancy agreement with DRDO & ADA (Aeronautical Development Agency) for the Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Tejas. More than offsets, Eurofighter is interested in the industrialization of Indian defence. India offers world class engineering capability in defence. That is how we see our partnership with India. We are fully committed to support India’s domestic industries which can acquire new capabilities.

Technology Transfer is another major issue in the MMRCA deal. What is your view on it?

Dr. Schmidlin — We have a very clear view on Transfer of Technology (ToT) to India and transfer cutting-edge technology which allows us to plug India in the global value chain of the Eurofighter programme. We have already started implementing this strategy, even before the MMRCA decision has been announced. This shows our commitment to partner with India. We have engaged about 200 engineers in the Airbus Engineering Centre in Bangalore. We started building up a military Engineering Centre at Bangalore where 200-250 engineers will be working by 2012. Of course if India were to decide in favour of the Eurofighter, we will have a case to transfer substantial technology to India which ultimately leads to completely assemble the aircraft in India.

Do you see any future joint venture in midlife upgrade of MMRCA and next generation fighter design and

development with Indian firms?

Dr. Schmidlin — We want India to become an industrial partner in the Eurofighter programme. This is the entire basis of our partnership offer to India. More than a buyer, we see India as a technology contributor to the Eurofighter and as a sub-system supplier. Eurofighter has recently entered service and has 40 years of useful life ahead. We are interested in co-developing with India through JVs, technology sharing agreements, etc. cutting-edge future capabilities, mid-life upgrades, etc. for not only its own fleet of Eurofighter Typhoons but even for export to other markets. No competitor has offered India the best and most modern combat aircraft along with a partnership proposal to further develop the aircraft and contribute towards its future capability enhancements.

India would be using the MMRCA for at least 20 - 30 years. How robust and flexible is the design and technology in Eurofighter to incorporate future technologies?

Dr. Schmidlin — Eurofighter is based on an ‘open architecture’ design which makes it a highly adaptable platform to incorporate future technologies in a timely and cost-effective manner. This unique design approach has allowed Eurofighter to keep evolving with every successive tranche. The first tranche of the Eurofighter was basically an airto-air fighter. The second tranche was a full multi-role fighter aircraft with enhanced features, avionics and weapon systems.

Now we are into tranche 3. If India were to select the Eurofighter, she would get the latest tranche 3 aircraft.

When do you see the first aircraft of this programme entering into the Indian Air Force?

Dr. Schmidlin - MMRCA is India’s largest defence tender till date. Despite the complexities involved in a tender of such strategic and financial value, India's political establishment and armed forces have managed it extremely professionally and in a time bound manner. I expect the contract awarding process to proceed as per schedule and the deliveries to start according to the timelines mentioned in the RFP. Eurofighter is prepared and has the capacity to meet these schedules as per requirements of the customer.

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THE BUSINESS OF AIRCRAFT CARRIER

An aircraft carrier is one of the most potent and visible symbols of a navy with muscle. It is also one of the most expensive pieces of equipment and one of the most difficult to procure. ABHIJIT BHATTACHARYYA traces the business and where it is headed

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P

OST-SECOND WORLD War aircraft carriers in the 1950s were available aplenty to any one or every one who wanted to possess this symbol of might and the mighty owing to the disposal spree of the surplus and semi-finished ships lying in the shipyards of two main producers and users, the UK and USA. In economic terms, it could be referred to as a glut in the market where supply outstripped the demand thereby giving shipyards of London and Washington DC no option but to dispose of the vessels to cover the financial loss which resulted in sharp increase in the number of navies using the old, and often junk, aircraft carriers across the oceans.

One can gauge the prospect of economic loss and the consequential compulsion of the user-producer like the UK when the “Majestic” class carrier “Magnificent” was lent to Canada during 1946-1957 and scrapped in 1965. “Powerful” (renamed “Bonaventure”) was completed for Canada; “Majestic” (renamed “Melbourne”) completed for Australia; “Terrible” (renamed “Sydney”) was sold to Australia. “Hercules” was sold to India in 1957 for completion and renamed “Vikrant” in March 1961.

“Leviathan” left Portsmouth on May 23, 1968 to be broken up at Faslane.

The “Colossus” class “Venerable” (renamed “Karel Doorman”) was sold to Netherlands in 1948 and to Argentina in 1968 (renamed “25 de Mayo”); “Colossus” (renamed “Aeromanches”) was sold to France in 1951; “Perseus” and “Pioneer” were scrapped in 1958 and 1954; “Vengeance” was sold to Brazil in 1956 and commissioned as “Minas Gerais” in December 1960; “Warrior” was sold to Argentina in July 1958 and commissioned as “Independencia” in January 1959; “Glory” was scrapped in 1961; “Ocean” and “Theseus” in 1962. “Triumph” converted into a heavy repair ship and “Victorious” the aircraft carrier was broken up at Faslane.

Fast-forward to 1980s, one finds USSR, the biggest land mass in the world, is bidding for the top slot among the comity of aircraft carrier nations. The Soviet land bear trying to turn into an ocean going whale owing to the initiative and enterprise of one naval officer Sergei Georgiyevich Gorshkov, who at the age of 28 (in 1941) became, perhaps, one of the youngest Rear Admirals in the twentieth century. From thereon, close to 45 years, it was the spectacular show and rise and rise of the Soviet Navy under Gorshkov developing into a “super sea-power of

LETHAL COMBINATION: Fighter aircraft form an indispensable part of aircraft carrier the State”.

So much so that the table on next page would show the spectacular rise from zero in the 1960s of the Soviet Navy to two aircraft carrier in1970s to seven in the early 1990s and then again the stunning fall to a pathetic one-carrier fleet in 2010-2011 owing to the break-up of the Soviet Union into fifteen states in the 1990s.

The logic and logistics of carrier force operation, however, consist of complex as well as competitive factors; complex because it is not easy to produce, purchase, possess or deploy an aircraft carrier owing to its capital, labour and fuel intensive operation wherein possession of one ship could inflict a severe resource crunch on smaller nations with a limited military reach and finance. Moreover, a carrier requires a long lead time to operate in full steam once it goes to dry dock for repair, maintenance or upgrading its technology. On top of all, however, is the threat perception vis-à-vis the security option, strategy and goal of the user navy and the political will of its rulers.

Thus, the fundamental mismatch between finance, force projection and future saw the demise of the carrier forces of Argentina, Australia, Canada and Netherlands between 1950s and 1980s and even today the sole helicopter carrier of Royal Thai Navy, which was acquired in 1997, finds it hard to go all out operation owing to fund

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crunch.

Amongst regular and traditional maritime nations too, economics, reduced threat perception and curtailed geo-political role made the Royal Navy considerably less visible as the strength of its carrier came down from a peak of eight in 1950s to three in the 1980s and two in 2010.

In the case of Chinese Navy, however, it has risen from the relative obscurity of a “coastal defence” role in its first generation through a more “forward strategy” to the contemporary embracing of a more ambitious concept of “distant sea defence”. Beijing has moved on from Taiwan and South China Sea to operations off Somalia and the Gulf of Aden. Understandably, therefore, the “activation of the aircraft carrier (Moscow origin) ex-Varyag, which has been at Dalian since 2002, shows signs of nearing completion....as the ship appeared to be undergoing degaussing in March, 2010”. According to Jane’s Fighting Ships 2010-2011, “all this activity suggests that the ship may be ready for sea trials in 2010-2011”. Meanwhile, “construction of an indigenous aircraft carrier could start by 2011”.

Anyone following the contemporary Chinese zeal and penchant for power projection and flexed muscled robust diplomacy would be surprised if Beijing fails to operate at least two carrier ships to the high sea by 2015. The only thing which is bound to take November 2010

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COUNTRIES WITH AIRCRAFT CARRIERS Country

Year 1971

Year 1987-1988

Year 1990-1991

Year 2010-2011

Argentina

01

01

01

00

Australia

02

00

00

00

Brazil

01

01

01

01

France

04

03

02

02 + 01

India

01

02

02

01 + 02

Italy

00

01

02

02

Japan

00

00

00

02

Spain

01

01

01

01

Thailand

00

00

00

01

Russia

02

04

07

01

UK

08

03

03

02 + 02

USA

28

18

16

11 + 03

China

00

00

00

02?

Source: Jane’s Fighting Ships, various editions from 1960 to 2010-2011 a decade is the operational expertise and professional competence which comes with experience. Thus, with a booming economy, surplus foreign currency, favourable trade balance, China’s economy can well afford a sustainable carrier force, which is the ultimate weapon for visible power projection.

Since the Chinese are reported to have shown interest in the acquisition of Sukhoi33s fighter aircraft, one can well visualise what it takes to face the PLA Navy in the sea, ten years from now.

Today the uneasiness of New Delhi Navy is understandable as smaller countries like France and the UK possess two and three aircraft carriers and even the Italian and Spanish fleets do get a timely replacement of their aging vessels. However, what needs to be clearly understood is that all the users of aircraft carriers in Europe are also the producers thereof. Hence they are not required to ask the foreign manufacturers to bid and send their replies to the “request-for-proposals” to the potential users.

A WARM HANDSHAKE: AK Antony and the Defence Minister of Russia, AE Serdyukov signing an MoU, after the tenth meeting of the India-Russia Military Technical Cooperation.

Thus, the reality of contemporary arms bazaar is that unlike the multi-role fighter aircraft and main battle tanks, there are only

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eleven users (Brazil, China, France, India, Italy, Japan, Russia, Spain, Thailand, the UK and the USA). Incidentally, Japan is the latest to join the “carrier club” with two of her 18000-ton Hyuga-class helicopter carriers.

In comparison to eleven consumers, there are only eight producers (China, France, Italy, Japan, Russia, Spain, the UK and the USA) of aircraft/helicopter carriers thereby making it a hardcore seller’s market, which can dictate and manipulate price terms to potential buyers of the ship.

Seen in this background, the outburst of Indian Admiral in the past regarding Russian delay on the aircraft carrier Gorshkov can be understood. Assuming that the Russian behaviour was unusual, the next question would be : why was Moscow failing to maintain the delivery schedule? Was it for bonafide cost escalation of the project or to pressurise India to counter perceived US pressure to buy military hardware from the military merchants of Washington DC? Whatever the cause, the warmth of the past November 2010

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g PERSPECTIVE Russo-Indian defence relation still clearly seems missing. Does it imply a prelude to the end of Moscow-Delhi honeymoon? Not as yet if one is dispassionate?

Nevertheless, let us visualise the worst possible scenario and the consequential outcome thereof in case the deal had been scrapped. What could have been India’s option and Moscow’s choice? Could India have got a replacement of the Gorshkov to replenish its fleet from the market? As mentioned earlier, the carrier is still a sellers’ market and at that moment Russian-made Gorshkov was the only carrier available, which had been offered by Moscow to India and that post-Second World War era India was the sole user of carrier in the east of Suez ever since its acquisition of Vikrant in 1961.

Thus India purchased the Majestic class ship from the Royal Navy and rechristened it as Vikrant. Today the Indian Navy is so used to a carrier fleet, having gained experience and expertise in ample quantity, that it has a legitimate claim for a two-carrier fleet operating to the Eastern and Western seaboard with a third in a state of permanent reserve and maintenance dock. Seen in this light one can understand the dire need of the Indian Navy for the Russian Gorshkov to fill the vacuum created by the retirement of Vikrant and the unavoidable up-gradation cost of the existing carrier Viraat.

Since an aircraft carrier was still not readily available in arms bazaar, it had to be a prudent path of diplomacy of persuasion and co-operation rather than offensive defence of pressurisation and confrontation which made India not to miss Gorshkov, as the only possible gainer thereof could have been none other than the Red Navy of East Asia.

The end result of a potential failure to resolve Russo-Indian difference was also fraught with another unforeseen scenario. In case of a Russian failure to deliver Gorshkov after delay and cost-overrun reaching to an unacceptable level, there was every possibility of the USA waiting for an opportune moment to offer its oldest carrier Kitty Hawk to the Indian Navy. Though this prospect was

subsequently scotched as a “wishful thinking” and “rumour”, there are reports that “consideration” for Kitty Hawk was very much within the realm of possibility at one point of time.

It would have been “good money” from the sale of an old carrier for the USA. And had India gone for the giant 83,690 tonnes US aircraft carrier, which participated in the joint Indo-US war game off Andaman in September 2007, it could have been a totally different ball game in the Indian Ocean. Sounds preposterous and speculative today! May or may not be, because aircraft carrier is not built in a day. It takes at least a decade for an aviation ship to develop and sail from conception to commission. Hence the carrier market is not for a weak and soft buyer, but a hardcore seller’s market. Thus as China was waiting in the wings and Russian mood swings, what could have been the reaction of the Indian establishment in case the USA had offered Kitty Hawk which was commissioned on April 29,1961? Difficult to speculate now. But would the Admirals of New Delhi Navy still rule the “missed opportunity”?

Clearly, therefore, the possession or new acquisition of an aircraft carrier for non-producing nations today still is a herculean task because even in the best of times a carrier is normally in short supply and the key to market production and distribution virtually lies with the USA and the four European nations.

However, there also lies a qualitative and quantitative difference between Europe and the USA because Washington DC-built carriers are above 60,000 tonnes, and no non-US vessel exceeds even 50,000 tonnes thereby signifying the limited range, radius and restricted operability of the Europeans in comparison with the global reach of the US Navy.

Today, the first priority of the ship building yards of Europe is to build vessels for themselves. Although there could be more demand for carriers from non-traditional and neo-maritime nations in future, if one calculates the present financial strength and military potential to possess a carrier force only India, China, Japan, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Ger-

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many, Canada, Argentina, Brazil, Australia and South Korea appear capable to do so.

For Russia, however, carrier production for self-use does not appear priority as yet because Moscow is more into the development and deployment of nuclear submarines with prolonged invisibility rather than surface vessel with a perennial visibility. Nevertheless, Russia cannot afford to ignore the needs of its two primary customers Beijing and New Delhi. The difference of opinion and perception between Moscow and its clients could be unpleasant at times but it certainly cannot be avoidable all the time. The purchasers of military machines from Moscow will have to put up with the ups and downs of the armament industry of Russia along with the unpredictable and erratic contours of international relations in an apparent uni-polar world.

Russia was a superpower two decades ago. Russia became a marginalised state one decade ago. Russia is rearing to go into the future. Being possibly the only state to offer an aircraft carrier as well as its technology to both Beijing and New Delhi, Moscow knows the price of her armament industry and the importance of the monopoly. Little wonder, therefore, that both India and China are trying to be self-sufficient in carrier production.

After America and Europe, it could well be the turn of Asia to produce, distribute and consume the carriers of the navies, the ultimate visible symptom of the sea power of the state.

This piece would be incomplete without knowing the Russian carrier scene today. “Of the former aircraft carriers of the Kiev class, Kiev was sold to China for scrap in 2000.

Minsk and Novorossiysk were sold to a South Korean Corporation in 1994. Minsk today is a tourist attraction in China and Novorossiysk was scrapped in India. Admiral Gorshkov is (still) being refitted to be sold to the Indian Navy.”

(The author is an alumnus of the National Defence College of India and a Member, International Institute for Strategic Studies, London)

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THE ROBOTIC CLICHÉ ECHNOLOGY AND WAR:

MORTAL COMBATS: Military ‘Robots’ are poised to don the combat role in armed forces in future

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It is the sort of scenario that would have Isaac Asimov and Arthur Clarke salivating: robots in the battlefield, fighting alien wars from a bunker deep down thousands of miles away. But it’s no more science fiction, as technology conquers new frontiers. The robot war is increasingly becoming a reality as Sitakanta Mishra reports

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NE CAN find increasing use of unmanned weapons with precision guidance and artif i c i a l intelligence that is replacing human soldiers from combat to management positions. But can machines overcome human’s undoubted advantage — the brain inside its skull? Will mechanisation of war conform to the ethics of war fighting?

WAR AND TECHNOLOGY INTRINSIC For plethora of reasons, technology and warfare are intrinsically linked. They evolve together while shaping each other’s contours.

Innovations in weapons technology and tactics have not only transformed how wars of today are fought but also have guided the course of statecraft — from the formation of the first modern states, to the collapse of the Soviet Russia, to the upsurge of al-Qaeda. The changing contours of today’s warfare demands innovative methods and instruments of offense and defence with minimal loss of combatants. In consonance, one may find an evolving revolution of “smart” and “stand-off” weapons with sufficient autonomy of function or remotely guided.

It is discernible how the advancement in information, space and computer technology has helped infusing more decision-mak

ing power into many war machines. In the new technological battleground of today, many semiautonomous weapons can handle tasks that are previously assigned to humans. The main purpose has been to take the “man out of the loop”. In the process, many unmanned systems are being used in almost every realm of war, moving more and more soldiers out of danger while targeting their enemies with increasing precision. The semiautonomous machines like robots are capable of firing rifles, machine guns, grenade launchers, rockets and locate and defuse bombs with better efficiency than human soldiers. Dull, dirty, or dangerous tasks in warfare are now dealt by machines in less time and with considerable ease.

On the asymmetric battleground in different parts of world, bomb-disposal bots have been in use for years. In Afghanistan and Iraq, these machines have shown dis

tinguished record. In the air, Un-manned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) with reconnaissance and Global Positioning System (GPS) are now extensively used for spy purposes that were once performed by pilots who had the danger of being shot down. Remember the U2 over Russia during the Cold War?

R O B O T I C NOMENCLATURE Among the other unmanned systems,

Talon robot

Marcbot robot emergence and use of robots attract more attention for the reasons, first, that they offer the lure of riskless war, and second, they compel to redefine the link between military and society. Unmanned technologies like robots can be seductive, feeding overconfidence that can lead nations into wars. Therefore, according to P W Singer, the point is not that the machines are taking over, Matrixstyle, but that what it means to have humans “in the loop” of decision-making in war is being redefined, with the authority and autonomy of machines expanding.

Also, according to warfare experts, extensive use of robots in place of human combatants is likely to reduce the “sense of sacrifice” of the citizenry and the decision to go to war becomes just like any other policy decision may be weighed by the same calculus used to determine bridge tolls.

However, one must be aware of the fact that new weapons and capabilities breed new perceptions, as well as misperceptions.

First, the notions that robotics will “lower the threshold for violence”, frequent wars are more likely and miniscule role of human being in them, etc. need to be viewed with a pinch of salt. At the same time, the advantages involved in their use can be verified without prejudice.

For example, the PackBot like unmanned systems are in use in Iraq and Afghanistan today. The US forces landed in Iraq in 2003 with zero robotic units but by November 2010

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g COVERSTORY 2004 the number was 150. By the end of 2005, the number was 2,400 and by 2008 it went up to 12,000 units. South Korea has reportedly deployed two robot snipers with rifles with its forces in Arbil equipped with computer-guided guns that can hit targets with nearly 100 per cent lethal accuracy all the time. Israel is no far behind in the robot race.

It is no surprise that robots, a fundamentally new but growing spectrum in technology, don’t have a chequered past, their future seems promising. Early robots have found utility in warfare dating back to World War II with the invention of simple electrical servomechanisms for fire control and targeting.

The evolution of robotic technology now, however, is close to where computers were in the early 1980s, says Microsoft’s Bill Gates. In combat situation, robots are primarily used to accomplish three goals: reduce casualties, save money and perform more effectively than a human could. It is expected that by 2025, humanoid robots would start to be used fully in infantry combat roles.

At present, there exists more than two dozens different robot systems. PackBot, one of the many talked-about robots, has been extensively used with wonderful results. The name PackBot was inspired by Isaac Asimov’s 1950 science fiction classic i, ROBOT, in which robots of the future not only carry out odd jobs but make life-and-death decisions.

It is 42-pound and about the size of a lawn-

WILL USE OF ROBOTS MAKE HARDER TO COMPLY WITH LAWS OF WAR? AND, WHO'S RESPONSIBLE IF MAKES ROBOT MISTAKES? mower which can mount all sorts of cameras and sensors and a nimble arm. Another fellow robo-soldier of PackBot is the Talon. It has been remodelled by Foster-Miller, known as SWORDS (Special Weapons Observation Reconnaissance Detection System), which can mount and replace weapons like M-16 rifles, machine gun, and grenade or rocket launcher. One of the smallest and widely used robots in Iraq by USA is the Marcbot (Multi-Function Agile Remote-Controlled Robot) which costs only $5000. It look, likes a toy truck with a video camera mounted on a tiny, antenna-like mast mainly used to scout for enemies and search hidden explosives.

Also robotics are not confined to ground

operations only. Predator, a 27-foot length propeller-powered drone, is one of the most familiar UAVs that can rove up to 24 hours in the air at a height up to 26,000 feet. They can fly out in the war zone via satellite by human pilots and sensor operators located 7,500 miles away. Though the cost of each Predator seems high at $4.5 million, its utility in comparison to any other military aircraft would reveal its cost-effectiveness. Originally, they were designed for reconnaissance and surveillance but now some are armed with laser-guided Hellfire missiles. They have been successfully employed in Iraq and Afghanistan. Another more heavily armed sibling of Predator is the Reaper, which has been increasingly used by USA in Pakistan against suspected terrorists. Small and medium-sized drones like Raven and Shadow respectively are frequently used by individual soldiers to monitor streets, or the other side of the hill. Even the jet-powered Global Hawk is capable to monitor electronic signals over a larger landscape and can stay in the air as long as 35 hours.

According to one military expert, “The trend towards the future will be robots reacting to robot attacks, especially when operating at technological speed. … As the loop gets shorter and shorter, there won’t be any time in it for humans.” At such a stage, what would happen to the role of human being in war fighting as we arm ever more intelligent, Continued on page 44

UP, ABOVE THE SKY: The Predator, a 27-feet length propeller-powered drone, is one of the most familiar UAVs

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MODERNISATION: THE “COMMUNICATIONS” GAP! WHEN ONE talks of military modernisation in India, it is usually about the acquisition programmes of ‘hard power’ weapons and equipment like tanks, guns, missiles, ships, aircraft carriers, submarines, fighter aircraft, radars and surveillance systems. While powerful weapons platforms are obviously necessary for military domination and deterrence, supremacy in the battles of the twenty-first century will hinge on sophisticated command, control and communications systems that link the ‘shooters’ and ‘sensors’ together to achieve synergy through network centricity and effects-based operations.

According to a former Vice Chief of Army Staff, the modernisation focus in the eleventh Defence Plan is on “precision fire power, air defence, aviation, Future Infantry Soldier as a System (F-INSAS), infrastructure development, network centricity and achieving battlefield transparency through improved surveillance, night vision and target acquisition…

Considering the receding span of technological cycle (sic), the right balance has to be main-

tained between state-of-art, current and obsolescent technologies.” Despite this clear realisation about achieving the right balance, the Army’s communications systems are based mostly on obsolescent technologies. Softwarebased radios and cognitive radios are not even being talked about.

with the Army Static Communications (ASCON) system, which is the backbone communication network of the army. ASCON provides voice and data links between static headquarters and those in peace-time locations. It is of modular design and can be upgraded.

TCS AND BMS SYSTEMS SYSTEMIC DELAYS While some modern frequency hopping radio sets with integral encryption devices have been introduced into service in recent years, networked communications, which form the backbone of an effective command and control system, need substantial up-gradation. The Plan AREN system that is designed to roll forward and keep pace with offensive operations in the plains has been in service for almost three decades and is based on outdated and bulky technologies. It is based on outmoded second generation radio relay hubs and has no capacity for data transmission. Requests for Information (RFI) were floated for a Tactical Communication System (TCS) for offensive operations and a Battlefield Management System (BMS) for communication at the tactical level in defensive operations a few years ago, but since then the acquisition process has meandered continuously and this has resulted in prolonged delays in introducing both these systems into service.

The new optical fibre network being laid as an alternative to the 3G spectrum surrendered by the armed forces will go a long way in providing modern land-line communications.

However, future communication systems will need to provide wide-band data capabilities to facilitate the real-time transmission of images and battlefield videos while on the move.

The BMS will be integrated

TCS is a system that is meant for offensive operations — a mobile system that can ‘leapfrog’ forward as the operation progresses into enemy territory. The offensive operations echelons of the ‘pivot’ or ‘holding’ corps deployed on the international boundary and the three Strike Corps will be equipped with TCS. The TCS programme has been delayed by more than ten years — the project was to have originally commenced in the year 2000 and was hence called TCS 2000; now it is 2010 and yet the programme has not seen light of day, except that a request for the Expression of Interest (EOI) was issued in end-September 2010 to five private sector companies — TATA Power SED, Wipro, HCL, Rolta and L&T — and three PSUs — BEL, ECIL and ITI. The Battlefield Management System (BMS) is meant for communications from the battalion headquarters forward to the companies and platoons. It will enable the commanding officer to enhance his situational awareness and command his battalion through a secure communications network with built-in redundancy. BMS involves big numbers and will be fielded both in the plains and the mountains. The number of infantry battalions alone is about 350. To this can be added 60 Rashtriya Rifles and 45 Assam Rifles battalions. When armoured, artillery, engineers and signal corps regiments, as also aviation squadrons and the logistics battalions are added, the numbers are really huge.

Both TCS and BMS have been categorised as ‘make’ programmes by the Defence Acquisition Council headed by the Defence Minister.

This implies that the two systems must be designed and developed in India. Indian companies need to invest in developing the required technology and the ability to design and implement robust tactical communications systems. About 70 per cent of the required technology will have to be acquired from

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g COVERSTORY abroad and overseas companies will play a significant role either as joint venture partners or as suppliers of commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) technologies.

MNCs with suitable technologies and the right experience to help as system

integrators include General Dynamics, Thales and EADS. Indian companies planning to bid for these contracts must carefully evaluate the technological capabilities of these MNCs and how their systems have fared during recent combat operations, the type of experience they have in integrating large-scale tactical communications systems and whether they are likely to bring a long-term commitment to the Indian projects. TCS and BMS will need to be compatible systems and the MNC that can supply state-of-the-art technology for both the systems at competitive prices will have a clear edge. In fact, it will be prudent for the MoD to award both the contracts to the same Indian company so that communications compatibility can be ensured in practice and not merely in theory from the very inception of the system.

The BMS communications system must also be compatible with the Future Infantry Soldier as a system programme.

The F-INSAS project focusess on enhancing the lethality and survivability of soldiers. It seeks to transform soldiers into fully networked, mobile warriors with a high degree of situational awareness and the ability to operate in all-weather conditions in all types of terrain. The programme envisages equipping infantrymen with light-weight integrated helmets with a ‘head up’ display that has a built in communication system and night-vision goggles, hand-held computer display, Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver and lethal fire power, including laser-guided weapon systems at appropriate levels. The design and development responsibilities for both these programmes need to be clearly defined in order to avoid turf wars between the Infantry Directorate and the Information Systems Directorate in the Army.

LEARNING THE ROPES: Iraqi Army Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) squad member learn how to control and navigate a Andros HD-1 Robot during an EOD training in Kirkuk Province, Iraq

According to Lt Gen Prakash Katoch, former Director General, Information Systems, a Tactical Command, Control, Communications and Information (TacC3I) system is being developed by the Army. Under this mother system, various other systems such as CIDSS (Command Information Decision Support System), ACCCS (Artillery Combat Command and Control System), BSS (Battlefield Surveillance System), ADC&R (Air Defence Control and Reporting System), and BMS (Battlefield Management System) are being developed separately. Efforts are also underway to finalise a net-centric warfare (NCW) philosophy.

Little progress has been made towards addressing inter-Service interoperability challenges in the communications field. A tri-service Defence Communications Network (DCN) is now under development and the proposals which have been received are being evaluated.

Cyber security and offensive cyber warfare are other areas that do not appear to have received the attention that they deserve. With China moving rapidly towards creating “one million laptop warriors”, neglecting this field will prove to be very costly in the long term.

Over the years, the bi-annual DEFEXPO has seen a 60 per cent increase in the number of participating companies because India is set to spend close to US$ 50 billion (Rs 250,000 crore) on defence acquisitions over the next five years.

Leading international defence manufacturers are making a beeline to New Delhi. The endeavour should be to exploit technologies available internationally to design modern communications systems that are customised for Indian conditions and are in consonance with the Indian Army doctrine and the tri-Service doctrine.

India must skilfully leverage its buyer’s clout to ensure that each defence acquisition contract results in the transfer of cutting- edge defence technology to Indian companies. This is necessary not only for communication systems but also for all other weapons and equipment so that the country’s technological threshold is raised by an order of magnitude.

Future defence acquisitions must be firmly rooted in joint research and development with leading MNCs, joint trials and testing and joint manufacture and marketing. The patron-client, buyer-seller relationship in arms procurement in which India had been embroiled in the past must be consigned to history as a sorry chapter that is best forgotten. Also, the government should give up its monopoly on defence research and development except in sensitive strategic technologies.

(Gurmeet Kanwal is Director, Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS), New Delhi)

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INDIA AND ROBOTS There is a huge amount of work being done on robots, as India prepares to be at the cutting edge of robot technology, writes ROHIT SRIVASTAVA NOT TO be left behind the global trend, India is planning to raise a contingent of robots over the next 10 years, the goal being to match the United States or any other advanced country in developing unmanned combatants and weapon systems.

Developed by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), robots will constitute a platform that will be part of the “Low Intensity Conflict and Explosive Ordnance Disposal Programme”. They will play an important role in anti-insurgency operations.

In order to achieve this objective, the DRDO has been given the task to develop technologies required for these robots. Accordingly, the DRDO has been developing the basic technologies in the robotics: the command and control system and the robotic vehicle also known as Automated Ground Vehicle (AGV).

DRDO laboratories have now developed the first in the series — ‘Daksh’ — which is entering into limited series production. Daksh is a versatile Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV), capable of being remotely controlled over a range of 500m line of sight or up to three walls within building. It can lift a weight of 20 kilogram It has been successfully developed in a very short time of 30 months from inception to trials by R&DE, Pune-based DRDO laboratory.

The ROV is capable of being deployed both in urban and in cross-country terrains.

In an urban environment this can be deployed within building and climb stairs for handling and extracting hazardous material or improvised explosive device. It has an onboard shotgun for blasting through doors and windshields of car bombs. Daksh can very easily negotiate the challenges of cross country terrain whether of swamps and marshes or steep slopes. DRDO scientists assert that: “Daksh can handle IEDs, take it out of a crowded place and scan the device with its X-ray component to confirm if the device is an IED”. The bomb can be diffused by Daksh with the the on-board water-jet disrupter.

The manipulator arm of ROV has six degree of freedom, meaning the robotic arm can operate in six different ways/directions, giving it the capability to handle different type

of material in very difficult place, like from below a car. It is electronically powered by special batteries and can be utilised continuously for three hours before recharge. It also has multiple cameras on board for operator’s aid.

The technologies demonstrated in Daksh have been found to be flexible and robust.

Now the user needs to tell the research agencies what configuration are they looking for and those systems can be integrated in a very short span of time and can be delivered to user. For instance, for surveillance and look out for insurgents, these ROV can be fitted with camera both visual and Infrared.

Similarly for border patrols, sensors are being fitted over them.

For long-range control and beyond line of sight, an automated version is being developed.

Automated Ground Vehicles ( AGV ) of different sizes are being developed and tests are on to see from what range they can be controlled. Thereafter, it is up to user to put sensors, and weapon, be it nuclear, chemical or biological. Partial and fully automated versions are being simultaneously developed for specific functions like border patrol and bush searches.

Since 2009, the DRDO has been working on counter-insurgency weapons system and there are plans to use AGV and ROV as plat-

Daksh robot

form for mounting guns like assault rifle and machine guns for anti-insurgency operation. These can reduce the number of casualties as maximum lives are lost during the initial part of operation. Guns on mounted ROVs, thus, can be big a help.

In sum, robot is on the way of becoming an integral part of every unit of Indian forces in not so distant future.

November 2010

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capable, and autonomous robots? In his famous book Wired for War: The Robotics Revolution and Conflict in the 21st Century P W Singer has discussed many trends in the robotic surge and warfare. One interesting mention is about the capability of the automated counter-rocket, artillery, and mortar (Counter-RAM) robotic system of USA, known as the Phalanx CIWS. This $15-million expensive system is capable of locating and tracking targets fast using the on-board radar; it can also employ a gatling gun that fires up to 75 armour-piercing tungston penetrator rounds per second. This enables the system to destroy incoming rockets, artillery shells, and mortar shells in less time than it would take for a soldier.

In 2004, the USA Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) surveyed a group of US military officers and robotics scientists about the roles they thought robots would take over in the near future. The officers predicted that countermine operations would go first, followed by reconnaissance, forward observation, logistics, and then probably infantry. Among the last roles they named was air defence, driving or piloting vehicles. If things go right, in the future, to

win a war all one would need is a group of two men and a satellite phone. The combat scenario would involve these two humans in identical consoles and jointly supervise a team of 10 robots operating at a distant battlefield. This contemplates a scenario where a pilot could “go to war” by commuting to work each morning in his four wheeler to a work station where he could shoot missiles at an enemy thousand of miles away and then make it to his home in time for an of evening shopping along with his family.

ROBOTICS AND ETHICS OF WAR All these and other systems vindicate a situation where pilots or soldiers would experience “the psychological disconnect of being at war”. The new hi-tech and technological battleground, says Singer, may “pervert the whole idea of the democratic process and citizenship as they relate to war”. Secondly, such wars would undermine the morality of “good wars”. In true sense, decision to go to war is not just deciding to create havoc in a foreign land; it involves many moral characters of the community who decides. But without risking troops owing to automation of war fighting, “the decision to go to war becomes the act of a nation that doesn’t give a damn”.

HELPING HAND: In Iraq and Afghanistan, PackBot military robots have played an important role in helping the US army

For Singer, even sending of robots for a just cause like preventing genocide or civil wars may turn as “selfish charity” as it involves no risk or sacrifice.

Then, will use of robots make harder to comply with laws of war? And, who’s responsible if an armed robot mistakes? If robots will not fire unless a remote operator authorizes them to, then what the enemy needs is only to disrupt the communication between them. Therefore, it is difficult to believe the full-scale replacement of humans in combat though the required number may get reduced gradually. However, the US Army had solicited proposals in 2007 for a system that could carry out fully autonomous engagement without human intervention. In 2008, the US Navy circulated its research on a Concept for the Operation of Armed Autonomous Systems in the Battlefield.

Much before this, in 2005, the USA Joint Forces Command drew up a report suggesting autonomous robots on the battlefield within 20 years.

THE ROBOTIC SURGE Despite the ethical implications of robots in warfare, a vibrant military-robotic industry has begun to emerge world-wide. The military-ground-robot market forecast analysis (2010) indicates that markets at $831 million in 2009 are anticipated to reach $9.7 billion by 2016. This projected growth, according to the report, would take place for the changing nature of combat in every region. It is anticipated that military-robot automation of the defence preparedness is the next wave of military evolution. On the other hand, the vendor strategy is to pursue new applications that leverage leading-edge technology and innovation for future combat requirements.

However, scientists, vendors and military personnel often seen overstate the value of new technologies in order to convince governments to buy them. Though it sounds funny, the future of robots in warfare would depend much on the degree of confidence between robots and human soldiers established. According to a scientist, David Bruemmer, “Trust, without any irony, is a huge issue for robot performance.”

The fear is, while in the pursuit of building trust between human beings and intelligent machines, man should not overlook the distinctive biology that he himself and the universe is composed of. Inadvertently or otherwise, if his intricate mind beckons the technology into a Frankenstein monster, a country or even an entire civilization would watch helplessly.

(The author is Research Fellow, Centre for Air Power Studies, New Delhi) November 2010

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STRAIT OF MALACCA

GEOPOLITICS

FOCUS

PIRACY IN THE INDIAN OCEAN

OPTIONS FOR INDIA

It’s a complex and long-running security issue that involves safety, economic well-being and, most important, sovereignty of a number of countries. But the strategy to counter piracy requires a well-thought and balanced approach, argues SHISHIR UPADHYAYA

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ONG-CONSIDERED outdated piracy has returned in the twenty-first century to haunt the Indian Ocean. In many ways, little has changed since the times of the dreaded pirates, Henry Every and William Kidd who roamed the Indian Ocean in the 17th century. Even today, pirates continue to operate with impunity in gangs, attacking seafarers and capturing ships in the high seas. Significant developments of the twenty-first century such as globalisation, which has led to an increase in global seaborne trade and the increased automation onboard ships and has resulted in lesser manning of ships, have actual-

ly worsened the situation.

Moreover, the emergence of the nonstate terrorist groups gives rise to the possibility of a nexus evolving between terrorists and pirates. Thus, piracy has emerged as an enduring problem of the twenty-first century posing formidable challenges to the navies of the world. Currently, the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) has two main piracy hotspots: the Strait of Malacca and the Gulf of Aden. Both these locations lie along the main shipping route or the Equatorial Pendulum that cuts across the Indian Ocean from the West to the East. Security all along the Equatorial Pendulum is critical for smooth flow of the global supply chain.

The Strait of Malacca in South-East Asia is the most important strategic choke point in the IOR being the shortest route connecting the Indian and Pacific oceans. Over a third of the world's trade is shipped through this shipping route. Historically, since the early 15th century, piracy in the Strait of Malacca has been a lucrative way of life for the various fishing communities along the coast. The geography of the coastline along the narrow strait lends itself suitable for piracy, allowing the pirates to launch surprise attacks on opportune targets and disappear into the cover of numerous small islands, creeks and coves. Piracy was rampant in this region between the 15th and 19th centuries until it was eradicated jointly by the British and Dutch naval forces towards the end of the 19th century.

Piracy re-emerged in the region towards the end of the twentieth century when the Asian financial crisis of 1997 resulted in widespread unemployment, poverty and slow economic growth in the region. By the year 2004, the number of pirate attacks in the region had reached a record high of 157, accounting for more than half of the global — total of 329! The Strait of Malacca was declared the world's top piracy hotspot by the International Maritime Bureau (IMB) and placed in the war risk zone

by Lloyd's War Committee, resulting in the levy of additional insurance surcharge for ships transiting the Straits. This led to the joint antipiracy patrols by the littoral states, Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore, codenamed MALSINDO in 2004 (Thailand joined the patrols in 2008).

The naval patrols by the littoral states have so far successfully curbed piracy in the straits, albeit at the cost of stretching their maritime resources to their limits. For reasons of sovereign sensitivity the littorals are loathe to accept extra-regional participation. As a result, the maritime security of the region is dependent entirely on the ability of the small/

KING OF ROBBERS: Piracy in the Indian Ocean has been largely dominated by Somalian pirates

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medium-sized littoral navies to sustain the tempo of operations. The pressure on the navies has increased with the emergence of the Gulf of Aden as a hotspot for piracy. Three of the four navies involved in Operation MALSINDO: Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand are concurrently involved in anti-piracy patrols. It is believed that a slight dip in the current level of patrolling in the straits could result in increased piracy attacks in the region.

FOCUS

GULF OF ADEN Piracy in the Gulf of Aden is the manifestation of a greater problem being faced by Somalia; existing without a central and effective government since the overthrow of the authoritarian regime of Said Barre in January 1991. Today, Somalia carries the dubious distinction of being the longest-running instance of a failed state in the post-colonial history. The lack of security ashore has spilled into the maritime domain where there is a lack of regional maritime capacity and no credible indigenous maritime forces. As a result, the decade following the collapse of the Somali government saw extensive poaching activities by Asian and European fishing fleets in the Somali Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). According to a lesserknown study by the UNO, Somalia was losing $ 300 million annually due to poaching in its EEZ. All this led to the emergence of self-styled armed protection groups such as the Somali National Volunteer Coast Guard and the Puntland Coast Guard; aimed at combating poaching and dumping of toxic waste.

The self-styled coastguard groups took it upon them to attack illegal poachers. Soon, they moved on to attacking private yachts transiting the Somali EEZ. However, the Somali pirates made global headlines for the first time when on November 05, 2005, they attempted to hijack the American cruise liner Seabourn Spirit, approximately 75 nautical miles off the coast of Somalia. This unsuccessful attack triggered a wave of piracy attacks along the Somali coast. Subsequently, Somali pirates made headlines in India when in February 2006, they hijacked an Indian dhow named Bhakti Sagar (registered in Porbandar) whilst on passage to Kisamayu. 25 Indian

SOFT TARGET: Strait of Malacca in South-East Asia has been most vulnerable for sea piracy, while Gulf of Aden (bottom) has registered huge number of sea piracy attacks over the years crew members were held hostage till a large undisclosed amount was paid as ransom by the owners.

In 2006, there were 22 incidents of attacks on ships by Somali pirates. The numbers have since increased rapidly — more than doubling with each passing year — from 51 in 2007 to 111 in 2008 and 217 in 2009. For the first time since 2006, the IMB has reported that the total number of attacks on ships reported globally declined significantly during the first quarter of 2010 to 67 from 102 in the same period last year. During this period, Somali pirates were responsible for 35 out of the 67 attacks (a drop from 42 attacks in the first quarter of 2008) reported globally. 24 ships were boarded and 11 others hijacked in the Gulf of Aden.

The drop in the number of piracy incidents, though a welcome development, should not be considered a sign of success of the naval patrols in the Gulf of Aden. While the number of attacks has reduced, the range of attacks by Somali pirates has increased significantly in recent months. On March 23, 2010, a Turkish-owned vessel, MV Frigia, a bulk carrier with a 21 member crew, was hijacked at 1350 nautical miles from Mogadishu, Somalia. At the time of its capture the ship was closer to India than Somalia.

In mid-2009, with the arrival of the Second Standing NATO Maritime Group 2 (SNMG2) the number of warships on anti-piracy patrols in the Gulf of Aden had reached a record number of about 20-25 ships on patrol. To this day, almost all the G 20 countries are represented

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in the region including the multinational Task Force 151, European Union Naval Force, NATO and several other naval ships from China, Russia, India, Iran, Japan, South Korea, etc on independent patrol. However, this did not deter the Somali pirates and in 2009 the number of piracy attacks stood at 217, compared to 111 in 2008. Piracy had more than doubled during the period that a record number of warships were on patrol.

CHALLENGES FOR INDIA The challenges posed by piracy in the IOR to India — located between the Gulf of Aden and the Strait of Malacca — are multi-faceted and complex. Nearly, 95 per cent of India's trade by volume and 77 per cent by value is seaborne.

40 per cent of the seaborne trade transits through the Strait of Malacca and about 50 per cent through the Gulf of Aden region. Further, India has the seventeenth largest merchant fleet in the world and provides over 7 percent of the manpower (approximately 100,000 seafarers) to the global shipping industry. Therefore, the primary challenge for India is to ensure security of its shipping fleet, seaborne trade and safety of Indian seafarers. As the largest country in the region, in terms of population, size (except for Australia), GDP and naval power, India is also expected to play a key role in combating piracy in the IOR. Thus, India is presented with a unique opportunity to further its foreign interests in the region by playing a key role in combating piracy in the IOR.

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g FOCUS India currently does not have a stated anti-piracy policy that seeks to protect India's seaborne trade and which addresses the concerns of seafarers from India and other countries of the region. The response of the Indian government to deploy a warship in the Gulf of Aden in early 2009 was a kneejerk reaction to the protests from the kin of the Indian crew onboard the MV Stolt Valor, which was hijacked on September 15, 2008,

by Somali pirates.

Though the Indian naval warships deployed in the Gulf of Aden region have since safely escorted over a thousand ships and successfully thwarted several piracy attempts, several Indian seafarers continue to be held hostage in Somalia. It was reported on March 31, 2010, that out of the 178 crew held hostage

by Somali pirates, 95 were Indians. Three months later, on July 07, 2010, six vessels (including Indian Dhows and foreign ships) with 57 Indian crew were held hostage by the Somali pirates.

Currently, the shipping industry is largely dominated by the European countries in terms of vessel ownership. The workforce is largely from Asian developing countries. The nationalities of the crew held hostage by Somali pirates in March 2010 provide an insight into this aspect. It includes; Bulgaria, Myanmar, the Philippines, Ghana, Greece, India, South Korea, Pakistan, Sudan, Sri Lanka, Turkey and Ukraine.

The evolution of the shipping industry into fewer and larger cooperative multinational enterprises has led to increasing propensity on part of ship-owners to shoulder the burden of safety and security of the ship and crew. Currently, these risks are transferred to the insurance companies. As seen in the Gulf of Aden, the system of ransom money being paid by the insurance companies has evolved into a lucrative business model for both the pirates and the insurance companies, with the costs being passed on to the end-consumers. Clearly, such a trend is dangerous in the long term since it does not address the interests of the crew. It is believed that this trend will lead to increasing pressure on the navies to provide security.

POLICY OPTIONS There are four main policy options for India to consider: First, India should leverage its close ties and naval cooperation with South-East Asian littorals and even Australia to establish a regional security construct in the region. This could be achieved under the aegis of the Indian Naval Ocean Symposium or IONS and seek to augment the surveillance efforts of the littoral navies, currently overwhelmed with the task of

“PIRACY REMAINS A SERIOUS CHALLENGE FOR THE WORLD COMMUNITY, AS WE HAVE WITNESSED IN THE GULF OF ADEN AND ADJOINING AREAS. THE INDIAN NAVY HAS BEEN ACTIVELY ENGAGED IN PROVIDING ANTI-PIRACY PATROLLING AND ESCORT OPERATIONS IN THE GULF OF ADEN FOR OVER TWO YEARS NOW.“ A K ANTONY DEFENCE MINISTER

STELLAR ROLE Following the incident of MV Stolt Valor, the Government of India decided to deploy Indian naval ships on anti-piracy patrols in the Gulf of Aden region. The Indian Navy has been deployed in the International Maritime Transit Corridor off the Horn of Africa and the coast of Somalia since October 2008, making it the Navy’s longest continuous out-of-area deployment ever. In June 2010, the Indian Navy crossed a milestone in out-ofarea operations when it safely escorted its thousandth ship; the MV Bornza, through the Gulf of Aden.

As on September 17, 2010, the Indian naval ships had safely escorted 1200 merchant vessels — including both Indian and foreign flagged ships — from over 50 different nations and prevented 18 pirates attacks. In September this year INS Delhi put down three pirate attacks in four days! The anti-piracy patrols are in addition to the regular Exclusive Economic Zone patrols conducted by the Indian Navy in the waters off Maldives and Seychelles.

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securing the straits under the Malacca Strait patrols. A security mechanism involving Australia — also a major stakeholder in the safety and security of the straits — could help allay the fears of extraregional domination in the minds of the littorals and also offset some of the costs.

Secondly, in the Gulf of Aden, India should work with like-minded Gulf states to evolve a regional cooperative mechanism under the IONS. India should actively assist the African states involved in the Djibouti Code of Conduct, which seeks to establish a mechanism for information sharing, training and capacity building.

India should also enhance the anti-piracy patrols in the Gulf of Aden region and offer to provide assistance for Bangladeshi and Sri Lankan seafarers.

Thirdly, India should also seek to develop affordable onboard ship security devices such as the electrified fencing systems, long range acoustic device, etc.

This could be done on a public-private partnership basis. Further, under the aegis of IONS, India could also consider conducting workshops on best practices for onboard security and international exhibitions for ship security systems. A training centre for ship security could also be established in India for the benefit of all regional states.

Finally, India should press for the shipping industry to invest in onboard private security regulated by the IMO and also encourage Indian-flagged ships to invest in private security. The high seas aren't any safer than lonely stretches of highways on land where highway robbers prowl. A certain minimum deterrence could go a long way in reducing the number of successful piracy attacks. However, at the international level, private security onboard ships would require formulation of a new set of uniform regulations regarding carriage of firearms onboard, rules of engagement for private security teams, etc. Perhaps, a system for ensuring a certain minimum 'hardening' of ships could be considered on lines of the International Ship and Port Facility Security (ISPS) code of 2004, which mandated ships and ports to adopt certain security guidelines promulgated by the IMO. These policy options for India could reduce the impact of piracy on India's seaborne trade and protect Indian seafarers.

They also provide an opportunity to promote India's strategic interests in the IOR. (The author is a Research Fellow at National Maritime Foundation, New Delhi) November 2010

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INTERNAL SECURITY

WHERE ARE THE LEADERS?

More than resources, police forces need good officers

SECURITY WITHIN

Protecting the country from disruption due to increasing terror attacks and rising Maoist menace is a major challenge

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B R I E F S Paramilitary salary benefits

THE GOVERNMENT has brought more than eight lakh personnel of paramilitary forces like CRPF, BSF and NSG under a new "charge-free" salary scheme which entitles them to have concessional loans and hassle-free withdrawal of salaries. Under the new scheme, the spouses of these men and women in uniform will also be provided with a free 'add-on ATM card' which will enable them to withdraw money and carry out financial transactions in the absence of the earning member of the family, posted far away along the border or in the Naxal-hit areas of the country.

The country's largest banker — State Bank of India — recently launched a unique paramilitary salary package on the lines of a similar facility for the armed forces — Army, Navy and the Air Force. The new scheme will entitle the paramilitary jawans to enjoy "charge-free" facilities like zero balance account, free ATMcum-shopping card without an annual maintenance fee and freedom to draw their salaries from the nearest SBI branch or an ATM of any bank, when they are deployed away from their parent units.

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Rajasthan shows the way Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot of Rajasthan has inducted the first women batch of 480 police personnel into the newly created Hadirani Battalion of the state police force. This is the first women battalion in any state in the country.

At present the CRPF has two and Border Security Force one women battalion. In this sense, Rajasthan's experiment is a new step towards women empowerment.

Eastern borders more problematic

30 lakh cellphones disconnected

AS THE Centre pitched for thorough and quick subscriber verification exercise for security reason, it has been estimated that so far nearly 30 lakh cellphone subscribers have been disconnected from their respective networks across the country due to either incomplete or unverified customer details.

The subscriber verification has become a major issue in the wake of security threat and use of cellphones by terrorists for carrying out their terror operations in India.

IF PRANAY Sahaya, newly appointed special Director General of the Border Security Force (BSF) is to be believed, India's eastern borders pose more problems than the western part of the international boundary.

"India's western part of the international borders is largely plains, better fenced and well

guarded while eastern region of the boundaries is both plains and mountainous besides not being fully fenced," Pranay Sahaya argues, adding, "there are fewer inter BOPs (border outposts) on the western border than in the east".

However, the good news is that inter-linkages between separatist outfits of the north-

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eastern region has been weakening while sharing of information and experiences between the security forces of the northeast have been strengthened.

Besides, the crackdown on the north-east's militants in Bangladesh by its security forces over the last year or so has helped the situation to a considerable extent.

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Bangladesh for joint verification BANGLADESH WILL go ahead with the fencing project along the international border, but only after a joint verification is carried out for the alignment of the proposed 'single channel' fence in 31 patches along the international boundary in Assam and Meghalaya that Dhaka has objections to.

According to BSF Inspector General (Assam and Meghalaya frontier) RC Saxena, "Bangladesh government has been objecting to the fencing in these patches as the proposed alignment is within 150 yards from zero line. The fencing cannot be erected at 150 yards

due to terrain constraints."

It is to be noted that of the 571 km of the sanctioned fencing work on the Bangladesh border of Assam and Meghalaya, only 248 km has been completed. Work is in progress in 123 km, while there have been objections either f r o m Meghalaya or from Bangladesh in the remaining stretches.

While some villagers in Meghalaya are objecting to the fencing fearing their lands would fall on the other side, Bangladesh is protesting.

Border heat up by 100 per cent !

INDIA IS worried that 2010 summer has already recorded an almost 100 per cent increase in the number of stand-offs between the border patrol personnel of India and China. These stand-offs, all peaceful, were reported from Depsang, Demchok and Pinging Tso areas of Ladakh region.

The latest stand-off between the two sides along the disputed Line of Actual Control (LAC) was about a month ago when Chinese soldiers brought a bulldozer into a disputed area in the Ladakh region to construct a road. Even after the Indian side objected to it and asked the Chinese to take it back, the Chinese Army unduly delayed the withdrawal of the machine and took it away only about four days later.

With at least two more months for winter to set in, putting an end to such long-range patrols, 2010 may wind up with a record high in the num-

ber of such encounters in recent memory, it is feared. Compared to this year, the disputed areas of Ladakh had only recorded about three standoffs a year between the two sides every summer in recent years.

The Indian security establishment is also reporting a significant step-up in the assertiveness of Chinese military patrols whenever they encounter Indian patrols in the disputed areas of Ladakh region. The Chinese soldiers are no more slinging their rifles on their shoulders but are holding it in their hands in more of a readiness posture.

In the past, whenever the patrols came faceto-face, the two sides withdrew simultaneously, which is the conventional norm. Now, the Chinese military personnel wait for the Indian patrol to withdraw fully from the area.

ITBP gets top wares OVER RS 100 crore will be spent to purchase ultra-modern weapons like AK-47, night-vision equipment and anti-mining vehicles for the Indo-Tibetan Border Police.

At present, 49,000 ITBP personnel have been deployed across the country and 13 more battalions, including two women battalions, will be raised in the next two years. There are around 1,000 personnel in a battalion. ITBP guards the 3,488 km of the India-China border and mans border outposts on high altitudes.

Of late, ITBP forces have also been deployed to deal with the Naxalites or Maoists.

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INTERNAL SECURITY

CRPF special force is CoBRA once again

IN MARCH this year, with Union Home Minister P Chidambaram not happy with the acronym CoBRA for CRPF's specialised Commando Battalion for Resolute Action, there was a change of the force's name to Special Action Force (SAF). Now, the somewhat demoralised CRPF has decided to once again revert to the name CoBRA for the special force.

The CRPF has recently come out with new directions which stipulate that only the nomenclature "CoBRA" be used instead of "SAF" while referring to the special force. Having examined the change in nomenclature, the CRPF has said: "There is no ambiguity in the government orders/sanction and the approved nomenclature of the special force is CoBRA."

E-tickets a threat E-TICKETS THAT can be bought with the click of a button and are fast becoming the norm across the country pose a security threat that airports are grappling with, the Central Industrial Security Force(CISF) has found out. By misusing an e-ticket, one can beat the security system at an airport.

Internationally, all e-tickets are bar-coded and validated at the airports entry point. In India, however, passengers are allowed access to the airport merely by producing the e-ticket along with a proof of identity. At the airport entry point, there is no way to ascertain whether the e-ticket produced by the passenger is genuine.

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GEOPOLITICS

INTERNALSECURITY

LEADERSHIP IS THE KEY

TOUGH NUT TO CRACK: Stone pelting has become a nightmare for security forces in Kashmir

It's not brute strength or the hardware in your command that ultimately makes or mars a strategy, it's the leadership at the top that's the key, believes EN RAMMOHAN

T

HERE IS today a very big debate about the Armed Forces Special Powers Act in the country. The argument advanced by civil rights groups is that the AFSPA is draconian and it has to be withdrawn or at least amended to remove the "draconian" sections.

This move has come about because of some very brutal, cruel and absolutely inhuman incidents committed by the Army and para military forces.

I have operated under the AFSPA act over several years, beginning with the ULFA insurgency in Assam from 1990 November to 1993

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as the Inspector General, Operations, in Assam, as the Inspector General, CRPF, of the Northeast in Nagaland and Manipur in 1993, as the Inspector General, Border Security Force, at the peak of the insurgency in Kashmir from 1993 to 1995. There were no excesses of any kind committed by the troops under my command during these three tenures.

General V K Nayyar was the GOC, 8 Mountain Division in Kohima when Biseswar and his cohorts returned from China in 197879 and let loose a wave of terror in Manipur by armed robberies of banks and attacks on police stations. Gen. Nayyar set up his TAC November 2010

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g INTERNALSECURITY HQs in Kangla Fort in Imphal and issued directions to his formations that all persons picked up by them during counterinsurgency operations should be produced immediately at the TAC HQs in Kangla Fort and no one should be subjected to third degree methods.

He set up a police post in Kangla Fort and when arrested boys were brought there he directed the police officers there to summon their parents or relations. They were allowed to meet the boys and told of their involvement, by showing them the weapons recovered from them. If innocent, the parents or relations were allowed to take the boys with them through the police. General Nayyar was deeply respected by the people of Manipur and was a much-loved Governor in Manipur later, till he resigned because of differences with the politicians How were the counterinsurgency operations so clean during the leadership of Gen

tors that influence and lead officers who lead CI operations to carry out excesses. One of them is that the judiciary is not made part of the CI grid when operations commence.

There are also factors of regional loyalties of the subordinate judiciary and police. This leads to a situation when captured insurgents are released on bail by either scared or involved lower functionaries of the judiciary.

This leads to a point where an arrested militant who was captured by a unit and handed over to the police is released and very soon the force operating in the area finds the militant that they captured a week ago is again firing at them after being released by a committed or scared judiciary. If this happens again and again, the force operating decides not to take militants alive in encounters and even shoots those that have surrendered! They naturally claim that the militants concernedwere killed in an exchange of fire!

criminately in the direction from which they believe that the grenade came. The boy who threw the grenade by that time has disappeared from the scene. Innocent civilians have meanwhile been injured and killed by the indiscriminate firing by the survivors of the patrol. And this is exactly what the insurgents wanted. What I have described is standard tactics in urban guerilla warfare. In fact it is prescribed in a famous booklet — Minimanual of the Urban Guerilla issued by the Tupamaros, a little known but fierce guerilla group of Uruguay.

How can you combat this tactic? It can only be done by good training, where this tactic of guerilla warfare is taught to the troops and they are trained not to react by wild firing when affected by such a grenade attack. A well-trained squad on patrol will never fire wildly killing innocent civilians. When caught off guard, a well-trained force will hold their

COUNTERING INSURGENCY: Paramilitary forces maintain a strict vigil in most of north-eastern parts of India.

V K Nayyar? The answer is very simple. It was because of his leadership.

We must go back to the classic works of counterinsurgency written by officers of outstanding caliber like Robert Thompson, the architect of one of the cleanest counterinsurgency campaigns ever fought-the Malayan Insurgency. His book, Defeating Communist Insurgency, is the classic work of counterinsurgency. Any commander of an Army or para military force must read this and explain its contents to his troops and subordinate commanders before he deploys them in a CI operation.

In Indian conditions there are several fac-

This particular problem of a committed or a scared judiciary can be rectified only if a Central Judicial Service is created on the pattern of the All India Services like the Indian Administrative Service.

I have made a study of ambushes suffered by the Army or para military forces. In a tense insurgent area, particularly in an urban environment, it is the training of guerilla forces to send a young boy with a grenade and throw it from an alley onto the main road where there is a foot patrol moving. The grenade explodes and seriously injures personnel of the patrol. The immediate reaction of the personnel who survive is to shoot indis-

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fire and thus avoid indiscriminate killing.

Ambushes are normally laid by insurgent groups on rural roads, particularly where the terrain is hilly and forested. There are certain cardinal rules when a convoy has to move in insurgent country. A road-opening party has to be laid and in position before the convoy moves. The road-opening party will move on foot and fan out on either side of the road in extended line to the extent possible and they will occupy sheltered positions on either side of the road facing away from the road in general so that they can see the enemies if they try to come and occupy positions to ambush the convoy.

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SILENT REBELLION: The abuse of AFSPA has been criticised heavily by activists in Northeast vantage positions along either side of the road a signal is given and the convoy drives past. A large body of troops is required for road opening parties. Very often convoys move without a road-opening party. Taking advantage the insurgent group ambushes the convoy causing casualties. They take off from the area immediately after the ambush. It is at this point that the leadership of the officer leading the convoy comes in. In most cases, the troops are angry at the loss of their colleagues.

In many cases, their anger is wreaked on innocent civilians who were witness to the ambush. Generally, they pick up as many civilians as they had taken casualties, line them up and shoot them in cold blood.

An instance of such behaviour is the Tonsen Lamkhai massacre on the road between Imphal and Thoubal in Manipur. A para military force was on election duty in Manipur. A company of theirs left for Thoubal from Imphal late in the evening.

The Imphal- Thoubal road has a ghat section halfway to Thoubal. This is wooded and ideal for laying an ambush. The first mistake of the force was to move in darkness. The second was to move without a road-opening party. Most probably insurgent cadres in Imphal, seeing the convoy moving must have informed their counterparts by wireless to lay a hasty ambush. And this is exactly what happened. As the convoy wound through the ghat section, insurgents who had taken position on the hill slopes opened fire.

Seven of the force personnel were killed and several injured. The force personnel fired back at the flashes of light from the hills and killed one militant. The rest retreated.

The force personnel stopped the convoy and took stock of their position. They collected the injured persons and sent them back in one vehicle to Imphal hospital. At that time a bus came carrying presiding and polling personnel with ballot boxes etc. The force personnel stopped this bus. They made seven persons from this lot to get out, lined them and shot them dead in cold blood!

This was done presumably because seven of their personnel had been killed! Where does the AFSPA permit such behaviour? Regrettably none of the leaders of this contingent who ordered this massacre of innocents were punished. It is bad leadership that led to these killers going scot-free. It also sent a message to the Force personnel that their leaders were weak.The fact that this was a dishonourable act, besides being coldblooded murder and it disgraced the honour of the force obviously did not occur to the force commander and his subordinate officers.

I can narrate innumerable such incidents that have repeatedly happened in Kashmir and the Northeast. This is a cardinal failure of leadership, where innocent civilians paid for their lives due to the negligence and lack of training of force personnel.

Failure to take action against leaders, who perpetrate such dastardly acts, brutalizes the force and no insurgency can be won with such ill-disciplined troops. I was Director General, Border Security Force in 1999, when I was directed by the Home Secretary to deploy troops in Churachandpur district where militants had occupied three subdivisions-Thanglong, Parbung and Henglep.

The sub division officers and Police had

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withdrawn with their staff and insurgents were living in the offices of the SDO. Six battalions were to be deployed in Churachandpur district. My main problem was the road from Imphal to Churachandpur. From Nambol for a distance of 50 kilometres, the road bordered the Thangjing hill range on the west. This was wooded and there were dozens of ambush sites. From Nambol on the east was the Loktak Lake. There were irrigation channels parallel to the road. It was in these irrigation channels that PLA or UNLF militants coming from sanctuaries in the Loktak Lake would take position and fire on passing convoys.

Militant groups had their bases on the Thangjing hills. From here they would come down the wooded slopes and take position on the lower ridges and fire on the convoys passing on the Imphal-Churachandpur road. We deployed one battalion on the road from Nambol to Churachandpur for deploying as road-opening parties. Vehicles from the six battalions deployed in Churachandpur moved on this road almost every day. I sited five company locations and demarcated the section of road that each company had to cover. I also talked to the local people and established contact between the locals and the officers and men of each company. I then briefed them how to take up positions on the hill slopes and on the paddy fields towards the Loktak lake side in the irrigation canals, the object being to deny the insurgents to take up ambush positions.

I also strictly briefed all my troops, that despite their best efforts, if any of our troops were ambushed, they would under no circumstances pick up innocent civilians and shot them in cold blood. If they did this I would register murder cases against them!

In 1999-2000, our force suffered two ambushes. In one we lost one boy and in another we lost three boys. In both cases I analysed the causes and came to the conclusion that in both cases it was the negligence of our troops that led to the casualties. In both cases the officers and JCOs who commanded the concerned troops held their cool and did not pick up innocent civilians and shoot them.

All our force commanders and senior, middle and junior commanders should study the classic works of counter-insurgency written by Sir Robert Thompson, Sir Richard Clutterbuck and Frank Kitson. They fought in the counter-insurgencies in Malaya, Viet Nam, Kenya, Yemen, Algiers and Cyprus. And they fought clean campaigns.

(The author is a former Director General, Border Security Force) November 2010

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FOCUSSING ON THE HOMELAND The KPMG, in collaboration with ASSOCHAM, had released during INDESEC held in August a comprehensive report, offering a panoramic view of India’s Homeland protection initiative.

Excerpts from the report

enhancing the intelligence and communication infrastructure Greater public-private participation opportunities emerging.

EXPENDITURE PROJECTION AS A PERCENT OF GLOBAL SPENDING: India France Saudi Arabia U.K. China Other Countries USA

-

3.6 per cent 3.4 per cent 4.5 per cent 3.9 per cent 5.2 per cent 42.3 per cent 33.3 per cent

Homeland Security in India has witnessed an increasing focus in the recent past. Occurrences like the 26/11 Mumbai terror attacks, security concerns feared during the 2010 Commonwealth Games, increasing instances of domestic terrorism, ethnic conflicts and other real and perceived threats have reiterated the critical importance of protecting the internal environment of the country from any potential disruption. In light of these events and threats, the Central and State governments in the country now perceive the modernisation and up-gradation of the country's Homeland Security infrastructure as an area of priority.

This has led to an increase in the Defence and Homeland Security expenditure outlay in the country. Some key areas of focus India is often referred to as a 'soft state' given its perceived inability to systematically and categorically deal with

several threats to the country's Homeland Security. There is a plethora of State security agencies with a minimal ability to coordinate towards dealing with these threats in an effective manner.

In an attempt to organise the Homeland Security apparatus of the country, the Ministry of Home Affairs is gearing itself to create a supporting infrastructure for the long term with an organised and targeted development of India's Homeland Security focused infrastructure. This includes modernisation programs for providing better equipment and training to the security forces deployed with the task of Homeland Security in India, creation of a centralised comprehensive database called National Information Grid (NATGRID) by combining the individual databases of several Government agencies, setting up of the CCTNS (Crime and Criminal Tracking.

Network and Systems) and several other such measures. In this endeavour, there are several areas which are critical to the Homeland Security of India and thus require specific focus.

POLICE AND PARAMILITARY MODERNIZATION A well-trained, well-equipped and efficient police force is the bulwark of the internal security infrastructure of a country. Police modernisation has been a focus area for strengthening the Homeland Security apparatus of the country. Presently, the cumulative annual budget allocation for all States and Union Ter-

KEY FACTOR: Paramilitary forces play an important role in Homeland Security in India.

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Photo by H C Tiwari

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IVEN ITS increasing focus on Homeland security, the Indian Government has initiated several steps to coordinate, consolidate and structure its approach to better manage this sector in the country and to overcome the current internal and external threats. One such initiative involves plans to set up a National Intelligence Grid to link all the intelligence agencies in various ministries and departments that deal with Homeland Security.

Another significant initiative is the ongoing drive to provide a Unique Identification (UID) Number to all Indian citizens which is also aligned to the wider cause of intelligently networking the Indian ecosystem. These and several other similar initiatives launched within the larger ambit of Homeland Security have the potential of creating considerable opportunities for large industry players to enter into the Homeland security market.

Over the next decade, India, along with Britain, Germany and France, is expected to emerge as the largest players in the global Homeland security market as opposed to the present situation wherein the US continues to be the dominant player with about 35 per cent of global procurement in this field. In fact, China, India, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and UAE are expected to exhibit the fastest market growths in this sector, driven by a combination of economic growth along with increasing threats of terrorism faced by these countries.

India offers a large potential for firms looking to leverage the opportunity manifested in this sector in the country on account of the following factors: High GDP growth Challenging relationships with neighbours that are unlikely to be resolved in the years ahead Ageing and obsolete equipment High spending on modernising military capabilities and industrial infrastructure Significant efforts towards

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g INTERNALSECURITY ritories under the specific expenditure head of 'Police' is approximately `44,354 crores, which, despite a 21.7 per cent increase over the 2008-09 amount of `36,434 crores, still amounts to a meager 4.3 per cent of the total budgeted expenditure of all States and Union Territories in 2009-10 . Of this amount, more than 80 per cent is spent on salary and maintenance of the forces and only about 20 percent is available for training and other capability building activities.

In addition to this amount, the Ministry of Home Affairs released `1,230 crores as central funds for the modernisation of India's police forces in 2 2009-10. Also, in order to enhance the Homeland Security of the country through a specific focus on certain identified cities, the Ministry of Home Affairs allocated over `450 crores in 2009 for city surveillance projects.

Such initiatives are likely to go a long way in addressing the requirements related to police modernisation. Furthermore, in order to strengthen the police apparatus and adequately train the available manpower to face the emerging challenges relating to intelligence and cyber crime, anti-terrorist unit, quick response teams, industrial security force and coastal security, the States need to increase their budget allocation so that adequate funds are available for recruitment, creating a modern training infrastructure, acquisition of better weapons and other facets of police modernisation like using IT to enable inter-connectivity of police databases of the different States.

COUNTER TERRORISM India has had to contend with terrorism in its different manifestations for a long time. Till a few years back, terror attacks were primarily in the form of sporadic blasts in the target cities. The situation changed somewhere around 2008, when India witnessed a new form of organised, sophisticated terrorism.

The synchronised large terror attacks on the Indian soil demonstrated the increasing ability of terrorists to exploit the abundant communication infrastructure for collaboration, financing, intelligence gathering and execution of the terror attacks. This was further accentuated by the weak infrastructure and Homeland Security apparatus. The challenges faced by this sector include an expanding transnational terrorist threat as well as the Maoist/Naxalite activities in eastern and central India. The changing nature of terrorism needs better networked resources to effectively combat the growing instances of such activities in the country. In an attempt to fight terrorism by checking cross-border infiltration, the Indian government has realised the necessity of deploying specialised technologies on all its borders. India is expected to spend `4,500 crore on domestic security before 2016.

In this context, the Ministry of Home Affairs has proposed to create a Multi-Agency Centre (MAC) that will work at both the centre and State levels to compile intelligence from and disperse intelligence to the participating agencies and set up a National Counterterrorism Centre (NCTC) which would be the nodal

point for handling all aspects related to terrorism In India. There is approximately `324 crore allocated for this endeavor. A further amount of `10.50 crore has been released to establish 7 counter-insurgency and anti-terrorism schools in 65 States.

COASTAL AND MARITIME SECURITY India has a coastline of about 7,500 km running along nine States and four Union Territories. A constant threat to India's security has been the possibility of terrorists entering the mainland by exploiting the country's porous maritime borders and perpetrating undesirable activities. These concerns were brought to light yet again when the perpetrators of Mumbai terror attacks entered India by exploiting the weak maritime border security.

Concerned with the nature of the porous maritime border and inadequate maritime security of the country, the Ministry of Home Affairs stated in 2008 that the Government of India had planned to enhance surveillance and patrolling of India's coastline to discourage infiltration attempts by terrorists through the sea lanes. In 2009, the Ministry of Home Affairs allocated over `225 crores in equipment for detecting arms and ammunitions in containers. The Government also sanctioned 73 coastal police stations under the Coastal Security Scheme, of which 64 are currently operational. Such efforts need to be strengthened through better management of maritime security efforts and specific coordination within different agencies dealing with India's maritime security. Towards this agenda, the Phase II of the Coastal Security Scheme has been finalised wherein 131 police stations are proposed to be established in the coastal areas of the country.

NAXALISM

CLAMOURING FOR MODERNISATION: Police officials discussing security issues.

At a meeting organised by India's Intelligence Bureau, the Prime Minister of India expressed great concern over the naxal violence in India by categorising it as the 'gravest internal security threat' and also referring to the need for a more professional and well-trained, technologically sound police force to combat this threat . The different States impacted by Naxal violence in India are realising the inter-State ramifications of Naxalite activities and the need for inter State coordination and cooperation. Issues of good governance, development, and public awareness are increasingly becoming essential in dealing with Naxalite activities, in addition to core policing requirements. The Government has taken certain coordinated steps in this regard including creation of an effective policing mechanism in the impacted States, ensuring adequate provisions for equipment, , training, and other supNovember 2010

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g INTERNALSECURITY ment has various components like intelligence collection within India's frontiers, transborder intelligence collection and the use of critical technology for the collection of intelligence specifically required for the internal security management.

India's efforts at intelligence gathering are inadequate with a plethora of agencies involved in this activity without any single control and coordination authority to manage the

loss pertaining to loss of human life, damage to critical infrastructure such as rail and road networks and to places that are of high heritage value and national significance. An inadequate focus on Homeland Security might also have a psychological impact by creating an environment of high uncertainty and fear in the minds of citizens, which adversely impacts the overall quality of life of the citizens.

Given such potential damages, Home-

Photo by H C Tiwari

porting facilities for State police forces, strengthening of the State intelligence set-ups, establishment of Counter-Insurgency and Anti-Terrorist (CIAT) Schools to impart specialised training to State police personnel in respect of counter-insurgency, jungle warfare and terrorism in Assam, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Orissa and Jharkhand. Furthermore, the central Government has allocated an amount of `515 crore in 2008-09 for Modernisation of State Police Forces (MPF) scheme with the

ADD-ON RESPONSIBILITY: Bomb detection by a police official during Commonwealth Games entire amount having been released to the affected States of Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Orissa, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal. An integrated approach aimed at relatively more affected areas has been adopted, including programmes for special attention on planning, implementation and monitoring of development schemes in 34 Naxal violence affected districts in 8 States. Under a similar initiative, called the Backward Districts Initiative, an amount of `45 crore per district had been allocated on a nonlapsable basis to focus on integrated development in 147 Naxal violence 10 impacted districts.

INTELLIGENCE AND CYBER CRIME Intelligence gathering and leveraging the collected information adequately to preempt any terrorist or related undesirable activity is central to the efforts targeted towards Homeland Security of the country.

Intelligence in internal security manage-

intelligence gathering process. Also, intelligence gathering at the State police levels is in a nascent stage with only about 1-1.5 per cent of the total police force performing intelligence 11 duties. Intelligence gathering needs to be enlarged, coordinated and managed through modern communication and analysis tools and technologies.

IMPACT OF INADEQUATE FOCUS ON HOMELAND SECURITY An inadequate focus on the Homeland Security of the country can have multidimensional impact. Besides the potentially significant risk to the homeland and its citizens, it can have a considerable economic impact manifested in lower credit ratings for the country, negative branding through travel advisories impacting the tourism and hospitality sectors, portrayal of the country as an unsafe place for business and the consequent reduction in foreign investment. A related facet of this is the capital

land Security is increasingly becoming critical to the overall security of the country.

This is witnessed through a growing focus on this sector by the Government of India manifested through larger budgets and attempts to create a structured approach to Homeland Security of India. Globally, the private sector has played a significant role in meeting the Homeland Security requirements in various countries across the world, and this model is now being replicated in India with the industry taking note of the requirements of this sector and perceiving this as a potential growth opportunity. However, given the lack of specific focus through a dedicated representative industry segment and the disorganised nature of Homeland Security apparatus in India, there is a lack of clarity regarding the extent of opportunity in this sector and specifically the approach and strategy to be adopted towards contributing to the cause in a constructive and significant manner.

November 2010

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DIPLOMACY

CAN THEY DELIVER?

Indo-US relations have immense potential. The question is how to realise them

“WHEN INDIA SPEAKS, ISRAEL LISTENS”

COUNTDOWN BEGINS FOR NEW LEADERSHIP IN CHINA

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TOWARDS ‘STRATEGIC CO-OPERATION’

Contemporary global and regional developments now dictate that India and Israel put value on the imperatives for enhancing their overall interactions. In this pragmatism should be the key word, argues MUSHTAQ HUSSAIN

E

VER SINCE the establishment of full-diplomatic relations in January 1992, the Indo-Israeli ties have witnessed a tremendous growth.

Most of this has largely been fuelled and dominated by India’s requirements for state-of-the-art military technology and hardware from Israel. In the latter, New Delhi found a willing partner for upgrading and modernisation of its defence forces which was neither encumbered by ideological baggage nor had direct geostrategic stakes in the region.

This ‘no-strings-attached’ approach on the part of both countries has been the most interesting dimension of their military ties. While benefitting from the Israeli expertise, India proved to be a major market for the Jewish State. Riding on this confluence of interests, both the countries have managed to put aside the uneasy past and develop a new level of trust and operational understanding.

After much deliberations and persuasions in September 1950 Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru granted formal recognition to Israel. Even though an Israeli consul took up position in erstwhile Bombay in 1953, various regional and international developments prevented India from taking the logical step of establishing full diplomatic ties with Israel. New Delhi’s commitment to and leading position in the Non-Aligned Movement, closeness to the Arab leaders and geo-strategic convergence with Moscow were among the reasons for the lack of progress on the bilateral front. For much of the post-1947 years, India’s policy towards Israel was dominated by non-relations rather than active engagement.

In the mid-1980s, especially during the tenure of Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, India initiated a number of direct and indirect contacts with Israel. This process was carried forward by Prime Minister P V Narasimha Rao, who sought to make the Indian foreign

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policy more pragmatic. The end of the Cold War, inauguration of the Madrid peace process in October 1991 and the willingness of most of the Arab countries to secure a negotiated peace with the Jewish State enabled Rao to pursue a new policy towards Israel. On 29 January 1992, more than four decades after its recognition, India announced the normalisation of relations with Israel. The opening of embassies by both the countries paved the way for a steady flow of political and commercial visits, indicating the scope for cooperation in various fields.

Notwithstanding the seemingly unbridgeable differences in terms of geographic, political, ethnic and social realities, both countries share quite a few common traits. Both states are democracies and have modern state systems governing centuries-old civilizations. The two also have certain commonalities in terms of political disputes that face them;

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SPECIALFEATURE for example, in the early years both were confronted with the task of absorbing scores of refugees and their rehabilitation.

Both possess nuclear capabilities, a fact which assumes even more significance if viewed in the light of the conflict-prone regions that they inhabit. For India, further complications are created by the presence of two nuclear-capable states on its borders.

Israel perceives a similar threat over growing international concerns regarding Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Both countries also share an identical view on the non-proliferation regimes such as the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

Further, the two countries view the United States in friendly terms, although in India’s case it is a recent development. Above all, both countries have a significant minority population, whose welfare would shape and determine not only their heterogeneous character but also test their ability to maintain and strengthen their democratic credentials. These shared commonalities have enabled the two states to come closer in the last two decades and forge a strong bilateral relationship.

Over the years, the Indian security establishment came to appreciate and respect Israel’s military experience and expertise.

During the prolonged years of non-relations, the Indian security establishment had observed and studied the experiences of the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) in combat operations and counter-terrorism. Moreover, even when there were no formal ties, India did not hesitate to seek and secure Israeli assistance.

During national crises such as the Sino-Indian conflict in 1962 and the Indo-Pakistani wars in 1965 and 1971, India sought and obtained a limited quantity of small arms and ammunition from Israel. Despite not being acknowledged in public, these interactions signalled a mutual understanding of the security concerns shared by the two countries.

Normalisation of relations presented an opportunity and a formal structure for greater cooperation in the security arena. In recent years, both countries have adopted similar positions on various arms control issues and terrorist violence that they are confronted with. The attack on the Chabad House in Mumbai in November 2008 is a case in point. Arms exports remain an essential and integral part of Israel’s security as they reduce not only the cost of production but also help offset the huge costs of research and development.

All these factors account for the rapid growth witnessed by the bilateral relations.

Reciprocal visits between Israel and India,

Phalcon AWACS plane since the normalisation of ties, indicate the growing acquaintance and strength of the relations. Since 1992, there have been a number of state visits between the two countries. These include the visit of Israel’s President Ezer Weizman in early 1997, and the visits of India’s Home Minister L K Advani and Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh in the summer of 2000. Around the same time, West Bengal’s Chief Minister and CPI (M) leader Jyoti Basu also visited Israel. Prior to becoming President, Shimon Peres had visited India thrice since his first visit in May 1993.

In his first overseas trip after assuming office, Home Minister Advani said, “…cross-border terrorism, illegal infiltration and border management are concerns that have brought me to Israel.” Officials from the Intelligence Bureau, Research and Analysis Wing and various paramilitary officials accompanied Advani to discuss border protection and measures to counter insurgency. Further, in order to take the defence ties to higher levels of cooperation and realise the potential in the field, a Joint Working Group on Defence Cooperation was set up in 2001. In fact, such an idea was mooted by Advani himself.

India’s National Security Adviser Brajesh Mishra was closeted in his office with his Israeli counterpart Major General Uzi

DURING THE 1962, 1965 AND 1971 WARS, INDIA OBTAINED ARMS AND AMMUNITION FROM ISRAEL.

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Dayan, discussing joint security strategy, when the September 11 terror struck the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. In May 2003, Brajesh Mishra expounded the rationale behind a ‘US-India-Israel strategic partnership’ before a responsive audience of the American Jewish Committee. He elaborated that only a ‘core’ consisting of democracies such as India, Israel and the United States can deal with terrorism. The theme of India, the United States and Israel being ‘prime targets of terrorism,’ having a ‘common enemy,’ and requiring ‘joint action,’ which Mishra explained, had already found favour in the three capitals.

In order to institutionalise the cooperation in the field of combating the menace of terrorism, the India-Israel Joint Working Group on Counter-Terrorism was established in 2003. Both countries also signed an intelligence-sharing agreement in 2007. As well-known analyst, Brian K Hendricks points out, it is important to note that much of the counter-terrorism cooperation happens outside of the Indian Ministry of Defence, as this is mainly an issue for the Ministry of Home Affairs and Ministry of External Affairs. India and Israel have also conducted bilateral army and air force exercises, with a focus on counter-terrorism.

The high point of the bilateral relations was the September 2003 state visit of Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. During the visit, the Delhi Statement of Friendship and Cooperation was issued. Further, India and Israel signed numerous agreements on Environmental Protection, Cooperation in combating illicit trafficking, cooperation in the fields of health and medicine, etc. In January 2004, Indian Minister of Commerce and Industry Arun Jaitley headed the Indian delegation to the Joint Economic Committee, which met in Israel. Minister for Commerce and Industries Kamal Nath visited Israel in November November 2010

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AMBASSADOR’SJOURNAL

A THRIVING AFFAIR There are several imperatives because of which Indo-Israel relations have been steadily growing, though the two countries have deliberately chosen to keep the momentum a low-key affair. In a candid conversation with Prakash Nanda, Israel’s Ambassador to India MARK SOFER explains how the partnership, which began in 1992, is progressing

L

ET ME begin with by saying that as a country India is special to us.

Our relationship with India is only 18 years old, but in terms of quality and magnitude it has been immense. There has been a total metamorphosis of the relations that started in 1992.

That year the bilateral trade figure was around US$150 million. By the end of 2010, the figure will reach US$5 billion mark.

This figure does not include trade in defence, which is a separate area. There are many areas where trade could increase further significantly, both in civilian and defence areas. Israeli investments in India have crossed US$6 billion. Israel is probably the fifth largest foreign investor in India, which is the second-biggest export market in the world. I don’t know any other countries which have built such a dynamic economic relationship in such a short period of time.

We are now negotiating with India for a Free Trade Agreement (FDA). Once it is signed, the civilian trade will triple. The trade between our two countries is mutually beneficial. The trade opportunities are not competitive but complimentary. The FDA will generate many more employment opportunities in both the countries.

It will facilitate the establishment of a lot

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of joint ventures.

My belief is that much of work between India and Israel in future will be in the field of economics, commercial trade, investment, joint ventures and scientific cooperation. Technology transfer to India is never going to be a problem as it will be rewarding always to work along with immensely talented Indian scientists and technologists in the fields as varied as space, telecommunications, medical sciences, life-sciences, pharmaceuticals, science and technology, the hardware aspect of IT and agriculture.

Here, I must make a special mention of agriculture, the field in which Israel is a state-of-the-art leader. We have the capability to transform a desert to bloom. Israel brings great learning through research in the field of agriculture and specialises in cultivation using scarce resources that could be useful to millions of farmers in India. The expertise in computerised drip irrigation and water management could be very helpful in India — along with untapped potential in dairy sector. Israeli cows yield around 4142 litres of milk in a day.

The point is how to use systems and technology to double or triple the amount of milk you can get from a cow and these are the types of technologies which are being November 2010

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AMBASSADOR’SJOURNAL imported to India now, which will be very good indeed for the local farmers. Other technologies deal with irrigation systems, water usage and management and creation of new water sources. Realising the potential on the front of agriculture, we have now an agricultural attaché in our embassy. We are actively involved in agricultural activities in Haryana, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu. We are about to set up two centres of agricultural excellence at Haryana’s Sirsa and Karnal.

Technological and economic operations are not the only points of contact between our two countries. We do have a vibrant defence and security relationship with India, which is no secret. This relationship is dynamic and is constantly developing. But I am not going to discuss the exact nature of this relationship. You may ask me why I am keeping it secret. I will only request that let us keep it secret.

We share with India a strategic outlook that considers terrorism a big threat to global security. We stand solidly behind India in fighting terror. In fact, there is a need for globally concerted effort to fight terrorism as the menace cannot be tackled alone. India and Israel have been primary targets of terrorism in recent years. The world knows what happened in Mumbai on November 26, 2008 (26/11). Along with Indians, Jews were also specifically targeted by terrorists. Such ghastly attack has brought us further together.

We have full faith in India to protect the Jews. In fact, let me unequivocally that Jews are safe in India, a country where anti-Semitism is an unknown concept. The 26/11 has not affected the coming of Israeli tourists at all. On the contraray, over the last two years the tourist inflow from Israel (nearly 45,000) has witnessed a big rise.

Terrorism should not affect our daily life.

Because, if you allow life to get affected, then you allow the terrorists to win. And we must not allow that to happen.

Similarly, on other major global issues such as environment, poverty alleviation, energy conservation and conflict-resolution, we do not have differences with India at macro-level. If there are at all any differences, then only in nuances. Like India, Israel firmly believes in peaceful co-existence and resolution of disputes through peaceful dialogue. In fact, our intentions are well recognised by pragmatic Palestinians and the vast majority of people in the Arab world. We must not be judged by what mad leaders of Iran, particularly its

STRONG RELIGIOUS TIES: Israel’s ambassador to India Mark Sofer during his visit to Ajmer Sharif.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, say about us and our reactions to him. He does not have anything other than hatred for us; he openly talks of killing the Jews and Jewish state.

We value negotiations and talking to others. We do not believe in playing one country against another. Take, for instance, our relations with China, a major power with which we have had excellent relations over a long period of time. We know the undercurrents between India and China, of late. But we deal normally with both India and China; our relations with one have never come in the way of our relations with the other. We are confident that as major powers both India and China know how to mange their relations with each other. In any case, Israel is not a world player, whereas India is. It knows how to deal with China.

We respect India a lot. As I have mentioned, India is special to us. We listen with great respect what India says on major global issues. India is the world’s largest democracy. Its culture is composite. India is a place where you can see, as I did recently in Ahemedabad, a synagogue adjacent to a temple, mosque and church, all located nearby. These are the facets of India that make us also proud, as India’s

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friend. After all, we in Israel have respect for all religions. We also have a significant number of Arab Muslims, constituting nearly 18 per cent of our population. And they enjoy all the rights and privileges that the majority community has. Like India, we believe in equality and freedom of all our citizens irrespective of their ethnicity and religion. In this context, I must emphasise that the conflict in West Asia is political; it is not religious.

There is no conflict between Judaism and Islam. I have demonstrated and conveyed this message personally. I recently visited Ajmer’s world-famous holy shrine, Dargah Sharif, the mausoleum of the Sufi saint, Khwaja Moinuddin Chishti. It was not an easy visit for me. Nor was it easy for the saints and officials managing the shrine at Ajmer. I am grateful to them that they took a huge risk in welcoming me. But this unbelievable visit was a huge success story.

And I term it a success not because people world over have been sending me congratulatory messages, but because I am receiving really nasty hate-mails form both the Islamic fundamentalists and Hindu fanatics. I strongly believe that when extremists attack you, this means that you are on the right track.

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CONFIDENCE BUILDING: (L-R) P V Narasimha Rao, Simon Peres and L K Advani were instrumental in firming up ties in the early days of the relationship between the two countries.

BURGEONING TRADE

It is defence technologies and hardware that dominate the trade between the two countries.

The annual bilateral trade between the two countries stood at over US$ four billion in 2008 and is expected to cross US$ five billion mark in 2010. This does not include the trade in defence technologies and hardware. According to the Israeli Consul General in Mumbai, both the countries have already begun negotiations to further improve the trade, which is expected to triple to US $12-14 billion in the next four years.

Presently, Israel is one of India’s top defence suppliers alongside Russia, while India has emerged as the largest market for Israeli arms exports. Recent deals include a US$1.4 billion contract signed in March 2009 for the development and procurement of the Barak 8 medium-range surface-to-air missiles. However, despite the overtures for broadening the economic aspects of the bilateral relations, especially in agriculture, diamonds and electronics, they are dominated by defence products. Some of the most prominent defence-related developments since 1992 include: The US$1.1 billion Phalcon Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) contract signed in 2004. This airborne radar mounted on a Russian IL-76 aircraft, allows airborne controllers to monitor and control airspace for hundreds of kilometres around. What makes the deal acquire significance is the fact that, despite allowing Israel to go ahead with this deal, the US did not accord the same support to China’s plans to acquire this technology from Israel.

A US$480 million, five-year contract was concluded in early 2006 between the Indian Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) for missile development.

India and Israel have now expanded the missile development cooperation to cover

both air and land-based missile systems.

This new deal with IAI is of the order of US$2.5 billion. Assistance in missile development also includes joint development of the Swordfish Long Range Tracking Radar (LRTR), which is the target acquisition and fire control radar for the Prithvi air defence missile system. In 2002, India had acquired the Green Pine ABM radar system, developed by Elta Electronics of Israel, for use in the Akash air defence system.

In a first of its kind collaboration, IAI launched its TechSAR all-weather, highresolution radar satellite using Indian Space Research Organisation’s (ISRO) PSLV C-12 rocket in January 2008.

The Indian Navy Extra Fast Attack Craft (XFAC), a state-of-the-art extra fast attack craft, built by the Goa shipyard Ltd (GSL) in collaboration with Israel Aircraft Industries and Ramta of Israel. The ship is based on the design of Israeli Super Dvora Mk II. The two countries are also co-developing the Advanced Barak Ship Defence Missile System. This new land-based air defence system will feature a range of 150 kilometres, more than double that of the supersonic, vertically launched Barak-8, or BarakNG (New Generation) now being developed for the Indian Navy.

Elta Multi-Mode Radar (MMR) for the Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) aka Tejas.

Apart from these big-ticket deals, there have been numerous instances of cooperation.

Among others, these include the development of Laser Warning Control System (LWCS) and Mobile Camouflaging System (MCS) for India’s Main Battle Tank (MBT) Arjun, and the up-gradation of aircraft and other weapons systems, including MiG-21, MiG-27 and Jaguar fighters, ship-borne missiles and T-72 tanks.

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2005, during which a Joint Study Group (JSG) was established to boost bilateral trade from US $ two billion to five billion by 2008.

Such an agreement was aimed at realising the full potential of India-Israel economic relations in a comprehensive manner.

Taking the prospects of economic cooperation a step further, in May 2005, Mani Shankar Aiyar, Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas, called for opening a new ‘Silk Route’ for supply of oil and gas from the Caspian Sea to the oil-importing Asian nations like India. Addressing the 12th International Caspian Oil and Gas Conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, Aiyar said that the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline offered the possibility of transporting the rich oil and gas resources in the Caspian Sea not only to Europe, as planned, but also to India and to South-East Asia. He pointed out that crude oil could be pumped into Israel’s Ashkelon-Eilat pipeline, which opened on the Red Sea. From there it could easily be loaded in crude carriers for further transport to India and other Asian economies.

India’s national interests, over the past decades, have changed from a position of non-alignment to one of pursuing specific strategic interests aimed at becoming a regional power in the Indian Ocean rim and acquiring a status of eminence in the global arena. In view of such long-term foreign policy goals and the present external and internal threats, the importance of strategic cooperation with countries willing to contribute to enhancement of India’s security can hardly be overemphasised.

Even though any Indo-Israeli security cooperation does not revolve around a common enemy, the threat of terrorism is fast assuming that position. Consequently, increased sharing of intelligence and tactical information as well as joint training in counter-terrorism is becoming a comprehensive and regular feature in the cooperation among the two countries.

The relationship shared by New Delhi and Tel Aviv goes beyond the narrow boundaries of buyer and seller and has matured into a “strategic cooperation”. It has geostrategic implications on India’s deterrence capabilities and lends credence to India’s position as the harbinger of stability in the tumultuous South Asia. For India, above all, it is not a negative alliance against any country, people or groups but a positive approach towards promoting and furthering its vital national interests.

(The author is a research scholar at School of International Studies, JNU, New Delhi) November 2010

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ASSESSMENT

TIME FOR ACTION Although the relationship between the United States and India is based on a number of common interests, the two nations often come across many challenges on the way. With President Obama undertaking a historic trip to India , BHASKAR ROY lists some uncomfortable questions whose answers will determine its outcome FURTHERING TIES: President Obama and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh

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AISING VISA fees for Indian workers abnormally, and with President Obama openly endorsing Ohio State's stopping outsourcing technological (cyber-related) work to India do not exactly make for a warm relationship. This rankled with India, forcing the Indian government to take up the issue with its American counterpart. However, nothing is likely to change immediately.

With the mid-term congressional elections due in November, and jobs, economy and Afghanistan becoming major points of contention, Mr. Obama and his Democrat Party are on a slippery slope. Indians understand election compulsions very well and the ruling party's predicament, which leads, to populist measures. But things can be done in different ways, and more palatably. But making a friendly country singularly responsible for its domestic jobless woes is not the best way to do things.

Such actions make for negative vibrations.

Since itineraries for such important visits are drawn with much thought, the Obama itinerary in India may throw some important insights. The US President will skip India's cyber capital, Bengaluru, and instead visit Mumbai. Taking the second first, "26/11"

terrorist attacks on Mumbai, in which American citizens also died, forced the USA to make greater counter-terrorism co-operation with the Indian agencies. The visit will also highlight American empathy with the government and people of India. It will be appreciated, though many may ask followup questions on the core applications of India-US counter-terrorism.

Following the arrest of David Headley in the US, who recorded and mapped the targets for the Lashker-e-Toiba (LeT) attack on Mumbai, the US agencies stone-walled Indian officials seeking access to him, citing various and vague US laws. The Indians finally got access, but that was also on conditions. The US actions were interpreted by Indians as the US trying to protect Pakistan state’s involvement in "26/11". This certainly appears to be a wholesome co-operation.

Avoiding Bengaluru will be a disappointment to India's information technology industry, which generates $60 billion a year turnover. A large portion of it comes from cooperation between Indian and US companies, and it is not a one-way street for India. With the current unstated sanctions on India information industry, avoiding Bengaluru will only

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further corroborate the suspicion that the Democrats, despite their nice words, have generally been more negative to India than their Republican counterparts. This was avoidable.

The "Next Step in Strategic Partnership" (NSSP) that the two countries had concluded in 2004, much talked about initially, appears to have disappeared somewhere in the details and developments. Leaders and experts from both sides have coined the phrases like India and the US "are natural allies" and the two are the largest and strongest democracies in the world. Having said that, it is very difficult to find historical close co-operation between the two sides except between 1962 and 1965 when President John F Kennedy responded to Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru's request in the aftermath of Chinese military attack on India in 1962. President Kennedy had personal regard for India as did his wife, Jacqueline Kennedy. He held Pt. Nehru's world view with respect.

Things changed in 1965 when Pakistan attacked India. Strategic co-operation with India ended abruptly though, to be fair, US stopped arms supply to Pakistan as well. History rolled in a different direction. The Cold November 2010

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THE MILITARY ANGLE

WITH INDIA set to beef up its defence capabilities and looking to import $50 billion worth of armaments and equipment over the next five years, it's no wonder that all of the major arms-exporting nations are wooing it. In fact, many military analysts view the November 5 visit of President Obama to India in the context of persuading India to sign a $11 billion contract for 126 MultiRole Combat Aircraft (MRCA) to US companies. However, there's no guarantee that India will oblige.

The Americans, of course, are hopeful that they have a chance, given India's need for diversifying its arms procurement basket.

But, at the same time, India is particular on complete technology transfer and a clause that the same weapons and technology will not be sold to China and Pakistan. With the US usually baulking at the very idea of technology transfer, this is where other countries, especially Israel, Russia and Sweden, can score.

But then Americans have done that badly in recent months. India has finalised nearly $10 billion worth of military purchases from the US in recent months, including a deal in 2009 for eight Boeing P-81 maritime patrol aircraft worth $2.1 billion and the sale this year of 10 Boeing C-17 Globemaster III Aircraft worth $5.8 billion, the largest defence deal with India in US history.

War intervened, India held to its conviction of non-alignment, though India was perceived to be more inclined towards the Soviet Union.

Under Henry Kissinger's political strategy, the US normalised relation with China using Pakistan as the foot board. India faced a US-Pakistan-China strategic axis against the Soviet Union and its perceived friends and allies. The Bangladesh war in 1970 saw the US leaning towards Pakistan, and India signed a friendship treaty with Moscow to counter China's pressure. The end of the cold war and the break-up of the Soviet Union in 1990-91 ushered in a new political atmosphere and rearranged to an extent the alliances and balances of power. There should have been a breath of fresh air in India-US relations, but this did not happen.

LIAISON: Pakistan's Army Chief Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani with US Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen From the Indian strategic and security perspective what was galling was that the US decided to turn a blind eye to Chinese missile and nuclear weapons technology transfer to Pakistan. Despite the smoking gun evidence of China supplying the nuclear capable M-II missiles to Pakistan in 1991-92, US President George H W Bush declined to make a determination. The rest, as we know, is the history of nuclear proliferation from China to Pakistan and the Dr. A G Khan illegal nuclear weapons technology market. It took India's 1998 nuclear weapons tests to shake US awake on what was happening in this part of the world.

Although Pakistan reacted with its own tests soon after, the US joined China and other countries to try and force India to roll back its nuclear weapons programme with the full knowledge that India had to conduct the tests to, as the Chinese say "Smoke the snake out of the grass."

India was widely sanctioned by Washington, the Light Compact Aircraft (LCA) cooperation was kicked out overnight, all technological co-operation programmes were rescinded, Indian entities like ISRO were put on the black list, and even Indian scientists were refused visas to attend international conferences in the USA. Despite this, there were Congressmen and experts in the USA, who saw the Indian point-of-view. But they were in a minority.

A change in American India view came with the "9/11" terrorist attack on the US, under President George W Bush Indian assistance to attack the Taliban in Afghanistan was required, and the US was not left wanting.

President Bush initiated the India-US nuclear deal with strong support from Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to undo some wrongs, and leave behind a national and global legacy. Prime Minister Singh was determined to see the deal through to bring India out of nuclear apartheid. After hard debates and much to and fro the deal was made and passed by the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG)

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with China opposing it till the last. With the sealing of the deal and passing the nuclear cooperation act by Indian Parliament, everything has been sealed, though the Americans are unhappy with the liability clause for suppliers of nuclear plant and equipment.

The Americans and other potential suppliers of nuclear plants and equipment must understand the Indian government's compulsions, and must accept that suppliers have a responsibility, if they supply defective equipment, which may cause a nuclear disaster. The Bhopal gas tragedy caused by sheer negligence of Union Carbide, and its refusal to take responsibility, shaped the nuclear act. Without these conditions, the bill could never have been passed by Parliament.

The American nuclear industry is looking at a $10 billion market in India, which will also create much-needed jobs in the US. That should be a crucial factor for American decisions, but there may be opportunities to reduce the impact of the liability clause in the agreement between the operator and suppliers. But there can be no free meals. In natural law, responsibility is embossed on either side.

There is also the Indian defence market.

Over the next ten years there will be $60 billion acquisition. The US has already got its foot in.

Lockheed Corporation has already bagged a one-billion-dollar deal to supply six C-130J military transport aircraft. India is also in the market to acquire 124 advanced multi-role aircraft, for which there are other bidders, too.

US high technology transfers to India still remain in the realm of consideration. The Pentagon and the Department of Commerce have to take the call, and they have not yet done so. The US will eventually have to convince the Indian government, political parties and the opinion makers that agreed deals will not be jeopardized by some sudden law enacted by the US Congress.

A clear knowledge and understanding of bilateral history is a must for both sides to avoid mistakes of the past. The situation in Asia from Afghanistan to the Asia Pacific is peppered with potential instability and hot spots which can affect both India and the US. Hence, an urgent need for greater strategic cooperation.

The US presidential visit is expected to take bilateral relations to a new level. At the same time, strategic and regional issues will be high on the agenda, especially from the Indian side. Issues topping the Indian agenda will be Afghanistan, Pakistan, terrorism, China and its growing military-backed assertions over the sea lanes from the South China Sea to the Sea of Japan, and the Indian Ocean.

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ASSESSMENT made it clear that it was a bilateral issue between India and Pakistan, Islamabad is trying with Chinese support to not only internationalise the issue but making China as one of the parties to the dispute. There is also a move for independence of Kashmir. Where does the US stand here? Time is running out for "running with the hare and hunting with the hounds" position. The issue is beginning to assume a critical situation, and can throw the region into unwanted tension and conflict.

The Afghanistan and Pakistan situation is very complex. The US and the NATO are in the withdrawal mode from Afghanistan, and support the President Karzai peace deal with the Taliban. Pakistan will support if they have a major say. The Pakistan army's mind set of India as the number one enemy has not diminished despite efforts from the Indian side. They still subscribe to Afghanistan as their strategic depth, weaken India through terrorism, and keep Kashmir on the boil. It is difficult to read President Karzai's mind on this critical issue, but there are important sections in Afghanistan like the Tajiks, the Uzbeks, the Hazaras and sections of the Pashtuns, who strongly oppose a Taliban role in the Afghan government, and Pakistani interference. These are questions and issues on which the US must take a clear position, and discuss with India.

India's own position in Afghanistan is under challenge from detractors, especially Pakistan. On the other hand, India is the most popular country among the Afghan people because of its development work. India has a legitimate interest in Afghanistan, and the two countries enjoy an old relationship. Americans realise that India is doing good work in the country, but this is agitating Pakistan more. India would like to know where does President Obama stand on this issue, because the current arrangements are bound to take Afghanistan to a new quagmire, and its Central Asian neighbours and Russia will not remain mere spectators if something major breaks out. Pak-Afghan terrorists sup-

ported by the Pak army and the ISI are a serious threat to them.

The China issue is equally important. India cannot be drawn into an encirclement policy against China. On the other hand, India has recognised that China's India policy is not docile and is designed to keep India at a "low equilibrium", to quote Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. President Obama needs to elaborate why he encouraged Chinese ombudsmanship over South Asia during his 2009 visit to China on the lines of Democrat president Bill Clinton's visit to Beijing in 1998.

Such positions do not do good to build trust between India and the US. Pakistan, of course, will be or should be the centre point of the talks. While most of the work would have been completed before President Obama's visit commences, there are always last-moment fine-tuning when sometimes major issues and differences are ironed out. Here the negotiators have to be at their best. People in India will be eagerly waiting to see how close India and the US come on the range of issues involving Pakistan.

There is a strong perception among a large section in India, and not without good reasons, that successive US administrations have and continue to, protect Pakistan. For example, the US ignored for years Pakistani-based and Pakistani-sponsored terrorism against India, preferring to only address those targeting US and European targets. The manner in which the US dealt with India in getting access to terrorist David Headley reaffirmed the suspicion.

President Obama will be expected to elaborate USA's stand on Kashmir, and the latest Pakistani-China surreptitious move to make China a party to the Kashmir question and also internationalise the issue. The strength of the India-US partnership will be tested on this issue. In Kashmir lies Indian sovereignty and territorial integrity, and it is non-negotiable.

Pakistan illegally occupies a part of Jammu and Kashmir, and so does the People's Republic of China.

On defence issues, India has no objection if the US assists

Outsourcing is a major source of friction Pakistan to counter terrorism. But when US arms and equipment transfers strengthen the Pak military against India, this is not acceptable as it has the potential to destabilise the subcontinent. It is also dismaying that despite having said so, the US is still to dehyphenate India and Pakistan. Because of this, perhaps, Washington is reluctant to be in the forefront to oppose the new China-Pakistan nuclear cooperation, which contravenes the basic principle of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG).

The NSSP must be architectured on the above premises. Notwithstanding the fact that the US is the only superpower, relations must be conducted on the premises of equality. Of course, there will be disagreements, but these can be dealt with smoothly. Glimpses of this are beginning to show, especially on terrorism and joint military exercises. But Washington is prone to demonstrate surprises.

Strategic relationship has different meanings for different countries and civilisations.

For China, it is to understand the other side through interactions, and prepare responses.

For India, it is faith and trust and a relationship which respects the compulsions of the other.

India can go to a certain extent to side with the US on Iran. But there is a red line, because the US continues to shift its position both overtly and covertly, and India has its well-known compulsions. For India, an attack on Iran will only disturb the region seriously. At the same time, India does not endorse all positions taken by the Iranian ruling coterie. The solution to the problems in Iran or Pakistan is laborious, time consuming, to gradually empower the peace-loving centres in these countries, which are still weak. For example, there are a handful of intellectuals in Pakistan who do not see India as the number one enemy, and do not subscribe to Pak army’s "strategic depth" strategy in Afghanistan. But if the US continues to empower the Pak army and the ISI, there can be no peace and stability.

(The author is a retired senior official and has worked in Indian Embassy in Washington)

GOING AFTER THE TERRORISTS: 26/11 will be a key theme during the trip.Obama is staying at the Taj during the Mumbai leg of the visit.

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THE SIXTH GEN AND FOURTH FACTION

Has Chinese leadership taken a decision on who is going to be the country's next President?

Is a post in the all-powerful Military Commission mandatory for becoming the President?

CLAUDE ARPI searches for answers

CITADEL OF REVOLUTION: Tiananmen Square today attracts thousands of visitors from all over the world

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HERE IS an interesting debate in China today: was Wen Jiabao, the Chinese Premier 'putting on a show' when he spoke about democratic reforms in Shenzhen in August or more recently in the US (in an interview with Fareed Zakaria for CNN)? Due to the extreme opaqueness of the regime in Beijing, the question is not easy to answer.

People like Yu Jie, the author of China's Best Actor: Wen Jiabao, do not believe that 'Grandpa Wen', as the Chinese media loves to call him, is a reformist. In an interview with BBC's Chinese service, Yu said: "Wen Jiabao and [President] Hu Jintao are like the two sides of a coin. They are on a tandem bike, heading in the same direction. I think they are playing the good-guy-bad-guy routine, like the harshdad-loving-mum sort of thing."

When the same question was asked to Du Daozheng, director of the editorial board of the Yanhuang Chunqiu magazine (former Chinese edition of Asiaweek), he replied: "In my view [Wen] has always worked tirelessly for opening and reform.

THE NEW EMPEROR: Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping is set to succeed President Hu Jintao in 2012

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In terms of action, among the highest-level leaders in the Central Committee, he has not only made his position clear, but he has also worked very hard. His style and manner are about closeness and service to the people. ‌He is also a living person, with his own thread of life‌ This is not 'putting on a show'.

I think that his manner and actions are based on his wide knowledge and the excellent traditions of Chinese culture."

Well, this does not help. We will probably have to wait a few decades to know who the real Wen is. One thing is however certain: Wen will retire in 2012/2013. Further, whether he speaks his mind or puts on a show, nothing will happen to him after retirement because too many people in China believe political reforms are necessary. The fact remains that the Premier of the State Council (Prime Minister) is today being censored.

There is a more interesting side to Wen's declarations: it brings a new dimension in the on-going discussion/debate on what was supposed to be a smooth leadership transition in 2012.

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CRYSTALBALL A few months ago, most of the observers had already 'guessed' who would be the Middle Kingdom's new leaders, not only in 2012, but also in the 2020's.The Jamestown Foundation published a paper 'Changing of the Guard: Beijing grooms sixth generation cadres for 2020'written by Willy Lam. The veteran China-expert explained: "President Hu and the Director of the CCP Organization Department Li Yuanchao have pulled out all the stops to elevate CYL-affiliated cadres from the Sixth Generation-those born in the early- to mid1960s-to ministerial level positions. Foremost among these Young Turks are the Party Secretaries of Inner Mongolia and Hunan, respectively Hu Chunhua and Zhou Qiang. In the footsteps of late patriarch Deng Xiaoping, Hu may designate the successor of his successor by ensuring that either Hu Chunhua or Zhou will take over from the 'core' of the Fifth-Generation leadership, Xi Jinping, at the 20th Party Congress in 2022."

For Hu and his colleagues of the Standing Committee of the Politburo, it may now only be wishful thinking since two new factors have crept into the scripted play.

One: the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize has been awarded to Liu Xiaobo, the initiator of the Charter 08, a text signed by 300 prominent intellectuals, suggesting the introduction of some democratic reforms into the opaque Communist one-party system.

As the Communist Party met last fortnight to decide the next five-year plan and discuss China's future, Beijing prevaricated on the fate of the new laureate; interestingly, Liu's award has become a divisive issue in the precarious political equilibrium within the Party. Two: the above-mentioned the publication by a group of former senior officials of a strongly worded petition addressed to top legislative body, calling for an end of media censorship.

In the years to come, China is bound to witness new demands for the 'fifth modernization' dear to the intellectuals who wrote large posters on the Democracy Wall of the Tiananmen Square in 1979 (Deng Xiaoping had spoken of four modernisations).Today these Elders (who probably participated to the censure of the Beijing Spring thirty years ago) asked for free speech, which, they believe is enshrined in the 1982 constitution. The points raised by them cannot simply be swept aside.

Wen's utterances on democracy demonstrate that there is probably today another faction racing for the 2012 succession. The main factions may remain the Communist Youth League Clique (by Hu Jintao) and the Gang of Princelings (by Xi Jinping), but a 'reform faction' seems alive and may even have some 'popular' support.

From top to bottom: Hu Jintao, Wen Jiabao In the paper quoted earlier, Willy Lam says: "Yet Fifth and Sixth-Generations cadres have yet to display originality of thinking and capability for breakthroughs in governance.

The dearth of visionary leaders could have an adverse impact on the nation's ability to meet its goal of attaining superpower status in the coming decade or so." It is true that the present apparatchiks have no originality of thinking; most of them are obsessed with the 'China Model'.

As a Party publication explains, the China Model, far superior to the Western Model is "to absorb the nutrients from capitalist bodies so as to strengthen China's socialist body…. to win time and accumulate strength via economic development in order to eventually conquer capitalism… to take advantage of China's nationalized system and do the big things the CCP wants. With the success of the China Model… (we)question the universality of the West's values and the Chinese Communist Party can redefine the prevailing world ideology."

The Party may say that the China Model is "a multi-dimensional system that covers almost every aspect of China's development (including political, economic, cultural, social, and military sub-models), it appears again wishful thinking from the leadership.

However within China (and even within the Party) many believe that there are possibilities of 'reforms' and it is necessary if China really wants to build the harmonious society so dear to President Hu and become a superpower.

Is the 'reform gang' strong enough to tilt the balance and bring about real changes in

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China? Only the future will tell us. Could the Nobel Peace Prize to Lui Xiaobo, which was an 'embarrassment' for the Party, trigger the 'reform' faction to come in the forefront? Perhaps!

It appears that during the recent Plenum of the Central Committee of the CCP, the question was not raised, but it is difficult to know what is going on in the corridors of Zhongnanhai (an area in central Beijing, China adjacent to the Forbidden City, which serves as the central headquarters for the Communist Party of China and the State Council of the People's Republic of China). In the 2012 power struggle succession, one should not forget another faction: the People's Liberation Army. In the recent months, the Army has shown that it can influence China's foreign policy; we have seen the harder stances vis-a-vis the US, Korea or Japan.

The PLA clique will probably fight hard against the introduction of 'political' reforms into the party system. Ironically even amongst the generals there are 'reformers'. General Liu Yazhou, Political Commissar of the National Defence University recently declared: "The secret of US success is neither Wall Street nor Silicon Valley, but its long-surviving rule of law and the system behind it... Democracy is the most urgent; without it there is no sustainable rise. Ideals of democracy are not restricted by national borders, or by historical ones."

Everything is not only opaque, but it is complicated.

In the meantime the Plenum of the Central Committee of the CCP has appointed Vice-President Xi Jinping a Vice-Chairman of the Central Military Commission. It means that he will step in Hu's three pairs of shoes in 2012 (PRC President, General Secretary of the Party and Chairman of the Military Commission).

Will Xi Jinping follow his father's footsteps? Xi Zhongxun, an associate of Deng Xiaoping, is still "remembered for his friendship to his colleagues, his tolerance to diverse cultures and religions, his idealism of an open market socialist country and his integrity in his beliefs."

Xi Zhongxun was one of the architects of the economic reforms. He proposed and implemented Shenzhen, China's first economic zone, which later became the standard model for the other economic zones. Will the Son emulate the father by introducing political reforms? Difficult to say.

An interesting two years lie ahead.

(Claude Arpi is French-born author, journalist, historian and Sinologist who lives in Auroville, India) November 2010

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TECH SCAN

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PALANTIR’S TECHNOLOGY TO FIGHT TERRORISM

A snapshot of Naxal activity during early 2009 as tracked by Palantir Technologies' software

ONE OF the latest entrants into the government spy-services marketplace, Palantir Technologies has designed what many intelligence analysts say is the most-effective tool to date, to investigate terrorist networks. The software’s main advance is a user-friendly search tool that can scan multiple data sources at once, something previous search tools couldn’t do. That means an analyst, who is following a tip about a planned terror attack, for example, can more quickly and easily unearth connections among suspects, money transfers, phone calls and previous attacks around the globe.

The company, said to be the world’s leading platform for data integration, analysis and data protection, has announced that it will partner with India’s pre-eminent software data integrators to provide Indianised solutions to the Government of India. Through its new subsidiary, Palantir Shakti Technologies Private Limited, the company will deliver tailored solutions targeted to address the complex national security needs of India.

Palantir software is used to solve counter-terrorism challenges, detect cyber attacks, support coalition operations in

Iraq and Afghanistan and by the law enforcement community to track criminals. In addition, Palantir’s software platform can be leveraged against multiple massive data sets in the fields of finance, regulation, anti-fraud, and healthcare.

The company’s two products, Palantir Government and Palantir Finance, are platforms that encompass the entire analysis stack, including data integration, search and discovery, knowledge management, and collaboration across the enterprise “After the 26/11 attacks, the Indian government has undertaken a sweeping revamping of its entire intelligence infra-

Dr Alexander Karp, CEO, Palantir Technologies

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structure. The goal is to better leverage disparate data sources at the local, state and Centre in order to obtain actionable intelligence to prevent future attacks,” says Dr. Alexander Karp, CEO, Palantir Technologies.

“The Government of India is considering Palantir for a number of ambitious projects that can connect these stove tops of data for secure collaboration in the national security arena. We are very proud to be a part of the Indian government’s extraordinary technological leap into the future.”

According to Shyam Sankar, Palantir’s Director of Global Business Development, “One of the thorniest issues that the Indian government now is confronting is the growing violence from the Naxalite movement.

Naxal data has shown that Naxals are targeting India’s extensive and vital railroad networks with which the Indian economy is so intertwined. The Indian government is deeply focussed now on stemming the Naxal crisis and is looking for better ways to track Naxal-fuelled violent extremism, to identify trends and patterns in these attacks so as to better protect Indian citizens.

Palantir offers powerful capabilities in that regard.”

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g Missile Interceptor: The ‘shielding’ power

WITH AN objective to counter incoming ballistic missiles carrying nuclear, chemical, biological or conventional warheads, some countries today have developed the capability to deploy ballistic missile defence shields, also known as missile interceptors.

Such weapons, called Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) systems, are used to shield a nation from missile attacks. The ABMs intercept and destroy approaching ballistic missiles even before they could reach their intended target. The missiles can be intercepted near the launch point (boost phase), during flight through space (mid-course phase), or during atmospheric descent (terminal phase).

Efforts have been made to develop two ABMs so far — short-range and long-range.

The main target of a long-range ABM is to track and destroy an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM). However, not much

success has been achieved yet in developing long-range ABMs that can defeat ICBMs. Three such short-range ABMs presently operational include — the Patriot surfaceto-air missiles (operational in the US Army), the Aegis ballistic missile defense system (operational in the US Navy) and the Arrow missile (Israel). Russia and China too have acquired similar capabilities by incorporating ballistic missile interceptor traits in some of the latest variants of its surface-to-air missiles.

India today has built-up its capability to develop and deploy a multi-layered ballistic missile defence system which consists of two interceptor missiles — the Prithvi Air Defence (PAD) missile for high-altitude interception (above 40 km), and the Advanced Air Defence (AAD) missile for lower-altitude interception (below 25 km).

This programme received a major boost when both the PAD with ‘exo’ (destroying the target outside Earth’s atmosphere) capability and the AAD with ‘endo’ (destroying the target inside Earth’s atmosphere) capability at altitudes of 48 km and 15 km respectively were test launched successfully.

The Defence Research and Development Organisation has so far conducted four successful tests of the indigenously developed anti-ballistic missile systems.

With this, India has joined the elite club of nations — US, Russia, Israel and China.

India develops LGB! INDIA HAS successfully developed its first laser guided bomb (LGB), lifting the precision attack capability of the Indian Air Force (IAF).

The LGB was developed by the Indian Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and is part of selfdependency in the advanced weapon developments.

Weighing about 450 kg, the bomb contains a laser designator, which could illuminate the ground target and guide the bomb to launch its precise attack. LGB is one of the most potent precision-guided munitions. The world's first LGBs were developed by the United States in the early 1960s, and they were first used operationally in the Vietnam War in 1968.

India had already carried out two successful flight trials of LGBs for the IAF to evaluate the effectiveness of its guidance and control system at Chandipur integrated range in the eastern Indian state of Orissa early this year.

Several types of the fighters in the IAF could carry the LGBs for the air-to-ground attack tasks, including Su-30s, Mirage-2000 and MiG-29s.

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DRDO’S UNMANNED VEHICLE THE DEFENCE Research Development Organisation (DRDO) of India and the Defence Research and Technology Office, Singapore, have together developed an unmanned ground vehicle that can be used during nuclear blasts and wars for a reconnaissance to help find injured people.

The project is executed at the Combat Vehicles Research and Development Establishment (CVRDE), Chennai. The objective of the project is to create the technology to develop an unmanned ground vehicle. The project began in 2007 and as part of the first phase. The scientists have developed the drive by technology using which, one can drive the vehicle from a distance of anywhere between 500 metres to five km.

The unmanned vehicle is/will be connected to an operator computer via wireless technology. The team at the CVRDE has fixed the actuating device in a Honda CRV that has automatic transmission gears. An operator then operates the car through a laptop using software developed by DRDO. The car has an obstacle avoidance radar and a stereovision three-dimension device that transmits a three dimensional view of the car's path to the operator. A light machine gun can be fixed to the car for defence purposes.

At present, the CVRDE is demonstrating the capabilities of the car at Shaastra, the technical festival of the Indian Institute of Technology, Madras.

AGNI-II PLUS IN 2011 DIRECTOR-GENERAL of the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) V K Saraswat has said that Agni-II Plus, a modified version of the Agni-II strategic missile, would be launched next year.

It would have a higher range, higher performance, with respect to the thrust and weight ratio than Agni-II, which has a range of 2,000 km. BrahMos Aerospace Ltd, a joint venture between India and Russia, would be launching the aircraft version of the super-sonic missile. It will be integrated with Sukhoi.

Within a year, the first development trial will be conducted.

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GEOPOLITICS

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Right Angle

A matter of reliability

W

ITH US President Barack Obama on his maiden visit to India, the nature and future of India-US relations have dominated the discourses in our strategic circles. Over the last two years, Obama has lost some of his appeal in India. His approval rating has dropped by 13 per cent — from 31 per cent in 2008 to 18 per cent in 2010, according to the latest Gallup Poll on the subject. Incidentally, the approval rating of the American leadership in India and Pakistan is one of the lowest in the 18 Asian countries where the Gallup Survey was conducted recently.

Indians have not taken kindly to Obama administration's decisions to hike the visa fee for Indian professionals and outsourcing. But then, one should understand Obama's compulsions. He had won the elections on his promises about America's domestic issues, Prakash not foreign policy. Americans need jobs and their economy needs a boost. As the leader of the most powerful democracy in the world, Obama has to work on his domestic imperatives — the democratic demands from within.

The same democratic parameters and imperatives also work with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, leader of the world's largest democracy. As a result, it so happens that Indian imperatives and American imperatives often do not match and these mismatches get reflected in institutional mechanisms of the two countries, sharpening their differences in the process. To put it simply, on many a matter the rules/laws of India and the US become bottlenecks in the process of their moving forward.

For both Manmohan Singh and Obama, the challenge, therefore, lies in bridging what we may term as the institutional gaps. For instance, the much-talked about Indo-US defence trade is not going to be smooth as long as the two countries do not sort out the incompatibilities between their respective approaches on matters such as "dual-use exports" by which the US Commerce Department gives clearances to American products with commercial and military applications for being exported and "munitions exports" by which the US Department of State has to authorize the defense services for India through 'Technical Assistance' and 'Manufacturing Licensing' agreements.

India has legitimate concerns about how under the dual-use licensing, the US continues to keep 11 government-owned organisations such as ISRO, DRDO, and Department of Atomic Energy subordinates in the "Entity List" (which restricts nearly all exports to those organisations). India is equally worried over munitions licensing, as the US, while selling arms, demands the fulfillment of "End-Use Monitoring Agreement" (which establishes a standard set of procedures governing the proper end-use of

US-origin defence items, as well as the on-site inspection of such items); "Communications Interoperability and Security Memorandum of Agreement" (which ensures the secrecy and interoperability of US communications and intelligence systems); and "Mutual Logistics Support Agreement" (which would give US and Indian military aircraft and vessels access to each country's ports, airfields and other facilities for refuelling and refurbishment). India has no issue with the End-Use Monitoring Agreement, but it considers an infringement of its sovereignty in agreeing to the other two requirements.

The Americans have their reservations about Indian laws, particularly those that demand American companies to sign technology-transfer and manufacturing license agreements while concluding substantial arms deals. Similarly, Americans do have a point when, despite covering extra miles for Nanda the historic Indo-US civilian nuclear deal, the Indian government really disappointed them by legislating a nuclear-liability provision that defied international standards and practices on damages and compensations flowing from nuclear commerce. Mercifully, the situation seems to have been retrieved now that India has signed the multilateral "Convention on Supplementary Compensation for Nuclear Damage" (CSCND) on the eve of Obama's visit.

India has thus assured potential American nuclear suppliers that liability, if any, would be in line with international norms.

All told, there is a qualitative difference between the Indian and American systems. It is extremely unlikely that India will back out of its commitment on CSCND, even if it has diluted the importance of its domestic legislation on nuclear liability. The same, though, cannot be said of the Americans, who, if the situation so arises, allow their international commitments to be superceded by their new domestic laws. That explains why the US finds it easy to impose so many sanctions and go back on its promises in its relationship with a country that undertakes any action or policy that the US does not approve of. This practice has been legitimised by the famous 1888 "Whitney v. Robertson ruling", by which the US Supreme Court determined: By the Constitution, a treaty is placed on the same footing, and made of like obligation, with an act of legislation.

Both are declared by that instrument to be the supreme law of the land, and no superior efficacy is given to either over the other. . . . [I]f the two are inconsistent, the one last in date will control the other. . . .

The moral of the story is clear. While everything suggests that the United States and India are natural allies, it may be difficult for India to consider the US a reliable ally. prakashnanda@newsline.in

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