What fleet scenario do you pursue in the New Normal?

Jonathan Manning

Ensuring fleet safety is no longer simply about traffic accidents and safety equipment. It is also about planning for post-lockdown recovery. Scenario planning can help determine the road to take for the future.

Scenario planning is a business tool that lets decision makers stress-test different strategies against different visions of the future. It offers an alternative way to test new strategies and ideas.

The uncertainty of business life in the New Normal creates a number of widely divergent scenarios for the future of fleet. What is certain is that

THE GREEN SCENARIO 1

Go green – companies emerge from coronavirus lockdown with a renewed commitment to environmental goals

and find that access to financial support from governments is closely linked to reducing carbon emissions. • Businesses downsize their fleets, oper ating fewer vehicles and restricting

them to essential journeys.

• Businesses bring forward their carbon neutrality deadlines to 2025. • Grants and subsidies are only

available for zero emission elec

tric vehicles, leaving plug-in hybrids unsupported and expensive. • A massive Europe-wide expansion in renewable energy makes electricity

a cheaper power source than petrol or diesel.

• The low traffic volumes, cleaner air and reliable journey times during the COVID-19 lockdown encour age authorities to introduce tougher congestion charging and lower emis sion zones. • More employees work from home,

reducing the need for company cars.

• Workplaces shrink, cutting the need for office EV charge points. • Employees expect multi-modal travel solutions for business trips. • Mobility as a Service becomes a key feature of employment contracts, playing an important role in staff recruitment and retention. cost cutting will become the main priority of fleets.

Scenario planning does not provide concrete answers. Nor does it determine whether it is better to implement strategies that perform reasonably well in a wide variety of scenarios, or commit to a policy that performs exceptionally well in just one scenario.

THE DIGITAL SCENARIO 2

Online society, online economy — the coronavirus lockdown prompts a fundamental shift in the way busi nesses and private individuals buy products and organise their corpo

rate and personal life. Digital communication is all around. Shopping shifts online and delivery becomes central to the retail experience. • Employees become more tech-savvy than they already were. • COVID-19 has forced fleet managers into a more pragmatic and decentral

ised fleet management with digital tools helping them to execute their role.

• Retail space and location become less important than warehouse space and location. • Businesses need freight consoli

dation centres to gather packages prior to last-mile delivery.

• Logistics and delivery firms start to share warehouse and hub facilities. • Customers expect green delivery options, demanding bike and electric van deliveries. • On-demand mobility will grow as the need for professional miles will

become more punctual rather than constant. • Punctual delivery times become a vital

USP – customers expect to track deliv eries minute-by-minute in real time. • Cities impose limits on how many deliveries each building can accept during the day.

Three scenarios

None or all of the elements in these three scenarios may actually happen, but answering the ‘what if’ questions will help to identify weaknesses in current planning and lead to stronger, more resilient policies.

THE COST SCENARIO 3

Cost cutting chaos – the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic forces companies to adopt drastic

cost-cutting measures.

• Fleet renewal is suspended. Vehicle holding periods extend, contract mileages rise, service and mainte nance challenges increase. • Non-essential vehicles are sold or used as pool cars because they are cost-effective. • Perk company cars disappear from

employment contracts.

• Price becomes the most important factor in sourcing new vehicles, lead ing to a possible resurgence of diesel sales as oil prices remain low. • Fleets look to leverage their buying power through a single supplier – only a small number of OEMs have ranges capable of satisfying all fleet operational needs. • Long-term, fixed cost supply agree ments become essential as fleets operate under strict budget controls during the corporate recovery.

— THERE’S A PUNCTURE WAITING WITH YOUR NAME ON IT CONTINUE DRIVING FOR 80 KM AT UP TO 80 KM/H 1)

HELP CUSTOMERS CONTINUE THEIR JOURNEY

HOW IT WORKS:

CONVENTIONAL TYRE RUN-FLAT

TYRE

The shape after puncture

Safety & Convenience

Peace of mind for virtually any type of puncture

For Any Vehicle with TPMS

Designed for any vehicle with TPMS 2)

Easy to Fit and Repair

No need for specific tools or machinery and repairable like a conventional tyre

The shape after puncture

Sidewall Reinforcing Rubber

Fit by Two 3)

Possible to fit by 2 on same axle

Standard Rim

No special rim required

Comfort Ride

Comfort comparable with driving on conventional tyre

DRIVEGUARD RUN-FLAT-TECHNOLOGY INTEGRATED ACROSS:

SUMMER

NEW

ALL SEASON WINTER

1) DriveGuard technology enables drivers to continue driving for 80 km at up to 80 km/h. Driving distance after a puncture may vary depending on vehicle load, outside temperature and when the TPMS is triggered. 2) Bridgestone recommends to fit by 4 to experience full advantage of DriveGuard technology. 3) TPMS - Tyre Pressure Monitoring System, is equipped as mandatory on every new car model produced from 2014.

DON’T ACCEPT ACCIDENTS AS UNAVOIDABLE

Benjamin Uyttebroeck @uytteb

Zero road deaths — that’s the ambitious target the European Union wants to achieve by 2050. Improving driver behaviour is an obvious way to work towards that target and one that needs to be addressed by fleet operators.

Gillian Nieboer, (Samsara): “Accidents should be a thing of the past.”

The EU’s Vision Zero target will require serious effort of lawmakers, who can mandate additional safety equipment to be fitted as standard on new vehicles. By May 2022, for instance, Intelligent Speed Assistance will have to be installed in new vehicles sold in the EU. This system will provide a driver with feedback when the speed limit is exceeded, based on maps and road sign observation.

In earlier drafts, lawmakers pushed to include a speed limiter but that did not make it into the final regulation. It remains to be seen whether drivers will be impressed by the system’s feedback, and whether they will actually slow down.

This touches upon the weak spot in road safety: drivers and their behaviour.

A thing of the past

In 2018, 25,100 people died in accidents on EU roads. “Accidents should be a thing of the past,” said Gillian Nieboer, Regional Marketing Manager, Samsara, an IoT solutions company that provides safety solutions for vehicles. “More conservative companies see accidents as unavoidable, but we believe each accident is one too many.”

“What started out as a simple tracking system, has become a smart camera system,” he said. There’s either one camera watching the road ahead, or a two-camera set-up with the second one pointing at the driver.

“This way, you can tell whether the driver is paying attention, looking out of the window or even whether they’re wearing their face mask.” The latter feature was requested recently by a US health care provider.

Adding cameras improves safety because drivers often modify their behaviour when they know their vehi

cle has on-board cameras. But there’s more — cameras also provide insights into what’s happening.

“Vehicle data already indicated whether a drive had braked harshly,” explained Mr Nieboer, “but now we can also see why they did that.” In many cases, it may not be a case of reckless driving but simply a necessary action to avoid an accident.

Eliminate distraction

“Worldwide, around 25% of all vehicle damages can be attributed to distracted drivers,” said Paul Hendriks, Sales and Marketing Manager and owner of SafeDrivePod. That’s why his company has come up with a solution to eliminate the number one source

Paul Hendriks, (SafeDrivePod): “We eliminate the number one source of distraction for drivers.”

of distraction behind the wheel: the smartphone.

SafeDrivePod isn’t only a company name, it’s also the name of a small, coin-sized pod that can be mounted in any vehicle. In conjunction with a smartphone app, the pod detects when the vehicle is moving and shuts off access to apps while driving.

It’s a matter of not trusting the cat to keep the cream. You can ask drivers to refrain from using their smartphone but you’ll probably be more success

fully when you’re making smartphone use physically impossible.

“Our solution has a very appealing return on investment,” said Mr Hendriks. “Our customers report around 25% fewer damages to their vehicles.” In 2016, SafeDrivePod won the Fleet Europe Fleet Industry Award.

Andy Cuerden, (eDriving): “We don’t only focus on high-risk drivers.”

Importantly, it is not limited to a particular kind of vehicles and can be used in cars, vans, trucks and even bikes.

Operational requirements

Technology can take away temptations to take more risks behind the wheel, but the role of operational policies should not be underestimated, said Andy Cuerden, Managing Director, eDriving. “We reinforce the message that there should never be any conflict between operational requirements and the individual driver’s own safety. Even in the strange times we find ourselves in now, with our increased reliance on delivery fleets, their safety should never be compromised.”

In other words: don’t push drivers to

squeeze in more visits or deliveries in the same workday.

Distraction, particularly from smartphones, is an important contributor to accidents. SafeDrivePod blocks smartphones when vehicles are moving.

reduce collisions, injuries, licence violations and TCO, for instance by using Mentor, a smartphone app that collects and analyses driver behaviours most predictive of crash risk. It helps remediate such risky behaviour by providing interactive micro-training modules directly to the driver’s smartphone.

“A lot of what we do is try and influence and reinforce behaviour,” said Mr Cuerden. “We don’t only focus on high-risk drivers. Instead, we recommend to also talk to low-risk drivers at least once a year, even if it’s just for a pat on the back.”

Over-reliance

Technology can help improve driver behaviour and reduce risk but it can also have a downside when drivers become over-reliant on it. A number of studies suggest drivers sometimes rely too much on Advanced Driver Assistance Systems, leading to an increase in accidents.

A Dutch study showed drivers without ADAS have a 14% chance of being involved in an accident each year. With ADAS, that risk becomes 23%. What’s more, repairing cars with ADAS features tends to be more expensive.

THINGS TO KEEP IN MIND ABOUT DRIVER BEHAVIOUR

• Make sure operational requirements do not conflict with driver safety. • Drivers will be more risk-averse if they know they’re being monitored. • Banning smartphones reduces risk. Technology to make smartphones unusable while driving helps drivers respect such bans. • Driver behaviour needs constant attention and training. • Do not only focus on bad behaviour. Your safety policy needs a carrot as well as a stick.

“At the end of the day, it’s still the individual driver who’s driving the

vehicle,” said Mr Cuerden. “It is the individual’s responsibility to keep himself and everyone around him safe.”

Driver monitoring systems can help ensure they don’t disregard this responsibility. A system that gives instant notifications in particular can improve certain behaviours as they happen.

SAFETY INNOVATION: DON’T STOP ME NOW

@DieterQuartier

Volvo will be working together with Luminar to provide Lidar and perception technology, paving the way for future active safety developments.

Will COVID-19 put safety second and cost-saving first? It depends on which stakeholder you ask, but competition between OEMs will keep driving technology forward, until one day we may reach zero road casualties – and even fully autonomous driving.

OEMs are taking measures to save costs. Not to please shareholders, but simply to survive. That means a reduction in the number of models and variants, but also cuts in strategic development areas such as new mobility and autonomous driving.

The road towards self-driving cars is built with advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), which get ever smarter and capable of managing more and more complex tasks in ever more situations. It stands to reason that corona will put a brake on their development. Some carmakers are pushing ahead regardless, to stay true to their DNA and deliver on their brand promise.

Tesla: Full Self-Driving Capability

The Californian EV maker not only prides itself on its battery technology and top-notch infotainment, it also claims to have the most advanced automated driving suite on the market today. An ADAS package called Autopilot comes standard om every Model 3, Model S and Model X. It enables the car to automatically steer, accelerate and brake for other vehicles and pedestrians in the same lane; Basically, its adaptive cruise control with stop&go functionality combined with what EuroNCAP calls “AEB Pedestrian” – a combination that the premium Germans invoice at €1,000 or more.

More controversial is what Tesla calls “Full Self-Driving Capability”. For roughly €5,500, you get a Tesla that can change lanes on motorways, and enter and exit motorways by itself – plus the promise that soon it will be able to stop for a traffic light and a stop sign. You still have to push the accelerator pedal to cross the intersection, though. The FSD supplement also readies your car for a future in which fully autonomous driving is legal and safe, thereby expanding its self-driving capability from the motorway to practically everywhere.

Volvo: Luminar Lidar integration

Vision 2020 is how Volvo sees the foreseeable future in terms of safety: ADAS combined with ultra-high protection in the event of a crash should together mean the end of people getting killed or seriously injured in a new Volvo, starting in the early 2020s. That is when Volvo introduces the SPA2 platform, which will be inaugurated by the next-generation XC90.

The Swedish OEM recently announced a partnership with Luminar for the integration of Lidar and perception technology in SPA2 vehicles. The partnership will deliver Volvo’s first fully self-driving technology for motorways – you could call it level 3 autonomy – and paves the way for future active safety developments.

Luminar’s technology is based on its high performance Lidar sensors, which emit millions of pulses of laser light to accurately detect where objects are by scanning the environment in 3D,

Sensors on the front and back of the rim register whether the steering wheel is being held, thereby informing the car that the driver is ‘present’.

creating a temporary, real-time map without requiring internet connectivity.

Cars based on SPA 2 will be updated with software over the air and if customers decide to opt for it, the Highway Pilot feature that enables fully autonomous motorway driving will be activated once it is verified to be safe for individual geographic locations and conditions.

Mercedes-Benz E-Class: you can touch this

Having ADAS is one thing, knowing whether the driver is in control another. The legacy E segment saloon and estate from Stuttgart introduces a new generation of steering wheels with capacitive hands-off detection. A two-zone sensor mat is located in the rim: the sensors on the front and back register whether the steering wheel is being held. No more steering movement is required to signal the assistance systems that the driver is still ‘active and aware’.

The buttons integrated into the steering wheel spokes now also function capacitively. This reduces the mechanical operating surfaces to a maximum. The seamless control panels, which are divided into several functional areas, are precisely integrated flush with the spokes.

As with a smartphone, touches are recorded and evaluated via capacitive sensor technology, which enables intuitive operation via swiping gestures and pressing of familiar symbols. The high-quality materials have been selected in such a way that operation is possible even in an interior heated up by sunlight. The system automatically recognises where the finger is at any given moment.

THE COST OF SAFETY

Advanced Driving Assistance Systems (ADAS) are designed to prevent accidents. Still, recent studies blame the technology for a big jump in the average cost of accident repairs.

On top of that, according to consultancy firm Deloitte, electronics installed in a car today – not just for safety, but also for infotainment, comfort, engine management, and so on – account for 40% of its total cost. With the arrival of ever more ADAS and automated driving using cameras, radar, lidar and so on, the cost is expected to represent 45% by 2030.

It’s an evolution that cannot be stopped – even if we could, we should ask ourselves if we can put a price on saving a life. Thanks to AI, the car will recognise risks and intervene before the driver even realises what is going on.

Moreover, sensor-fusion – the use of multiple types of sensor for the same application, e.g. cameras, radar and Lidar – enables a ‘redundant monitoring system’ so that regardless of the driving conditions, the car gets the right information to operate safely.