SAFETY
WHAT FLEET SCENARIO DO YOU PURSUE IN THE NEW NORMAL? Jonathan Manning
Ensuring fleet safety is no longer simply about traffic accidents and safety equipment. It is also about planning for post-lockdown recovery. Scenario planning can help determine the road to take for the future. Scenario planning is a business tool that lets decision makers stress-test different strategies against different visions of the future. It offers an alternative way to test new strategies and ideas. The uncertainty of business life in the New Normal creates a number of widely divergent scenarios for the future of fleet. What is certain is that
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cost cutting will become the main priority of fleets. Scenario planning does not provide concrete answers. Nor does it determine whether it is better to implement strategies that perform reasonably well in a wide variety of scenarios, or commit to a policy that performs exceptionally well in just one scenario.
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Three scenarios None or all of the elements in these three scenarios may actually happen, but answering the ‘what if’ questions will help to identify weaknesses in current planning and lead to stronger, more resilient policies.
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THE GREEN SCENARIO
THE DIGITAL SCENARIO
THE COST SCENARIO
Go green – companies emerge from coronavirus lockdown with a renewed commitment to environmental goals and find that access to financial support from governments is closely linked to reducing carbon emissions.
Online society, online economy — the coronavirus lockdown prompts a fundamental shift in the way businesses and private individuals buy products and organise their corporate and personal life. Digital communication is all around. Shopping shifts online and delivery becomes central to the retail experience.
Cost cutting chaos – the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic forces companies to adopt drastic cost-cutting measures.
• Businesses downsize their fleets, operating fewer vehicles and restricting them to essential journeys. • Businesses bring forward their carbon neutrality deadlines to 2025. • Grants and subsidies are only available for zero emission electric vehicles, leaving plug-in hybrids unsupported and expensive. • A massive Europe-wide expansion in renewable energy makes electricity a cheaper power source than petrol or diesel. • The low traffic volumes, cleaner air and reliable journey times during the COVID-19 lockdown encourage authorities to introduce tougher congestion charging and lower emission zones. • More employees work from home, reducing the need for company cars. • Workplaces shrink, cutting the need for office EV charge points. • Employees expect multi-modal travel solutions for business trips. • Mobility as a Service becomes a key feature of employment contracts, playing an important role in staff recruitment and retention.
• Employees become more tech-savvy than they already were. • COVID-19 has forced fleet managers into a more pragmatic and decentralised fleet management with digital tools helping them to execute their role. • Retail space and location become less important than warehouse space and location. • Businesses need freight consolidation centres to gather packages prior to last-mile delivery. • Logistics and delivery firms start to share warehouse and hub facilities. • Customers expect green delivery options, demanding bike and electric van deliveries. • On-demand mobility will grow as the need for professional miles will become more punctual rather than constant. • Punctual delivery times become a vital USP – customers expect to track deliveries minute-by-minute in real time. • Cities impose limits on how many deliveries each building can accept during the day.
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• Fleet renewal is suspended. Vehicle holding periods extend, contract mileages rise, service and maintenance challenges increase. • Non-essential vehicles are sold or used as pool cars because they are cost-effective. • Perk company cars disappear from employment contracts. • Price becomes the most important factor in sourcing new vehicles, leading to a possible resurgence of diesel sales as oil prices remain low. • Fleets look to leverage their buying power through a single supplier – only a small number of OEMs have ranges capable of satisfying all fleet operational needs. • Long-term, fixed cost supply agreements become essential as fleets operate under strict budget controls during the corporate recovery.
