NFB Proficio Vol 52

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NFB FINANCIAL UPDATE Volume52 Oct 2010

FROM THE CEO’s DESK

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olitically, I have not felt as uncertain as I do right now since Pa fell off the bus! Both domestically and globally the political arena seems extraordinarily troubled. We have been enduring one of the rougher wage negotiation periods in recent history and have not cleared the final hurdle just yet, as we wait for the three week standoff to pass and the game to resume. I noted the much ridiculed Julius Malema, thought to have cooked his own goose, sharing the centre stage with Gill Marcus in the Sunday Times last weekend. I recall saying a few months back that although this fellow gets poor grades at Woodwork it doesn't make him a fool. His recent public profile, aggressively attacking the ANC top structure, leads me to believe that he and the ANCYL wield more power than we should be comfortable with. They, together with Cosatu, are the linchpin of Zuma's electorate and he can ill afford to disregard them. The show of strength by organized labour is a clear sign that they are tired of the political elite playing games, promising and not delivering, and, very importantly, self enrichment at the direct cost of their political allies. On the global stage, Barack Obama looks set to suffer defeats in the US's midterm electoral process. If anyone in history has ever been given a worse political, social and military set of hospital passes can someone let me know! In Europe, the stereotypically not-so-brave body politic must be carefully watching their own behinds. Not a great place to be right now if you intend making a name for yourself and lining up a career after politics on the boards of banks or companies who your political clout has supported whilst being active in the supposedly selfless game of politics. Back to S.A. for a moment and we have seen interest rates drop to record lows (in my personal opinion, not for the last time in this cycle). This is indicative of a troubled economy where consumers, like their global cousins, are struggling with low employment, accelerating cutbacks in the construction/infrastructure sectors and continued high levels of personal debt which needs attention before credit extension will return to normal. This leaves the local economy in a rather vulnerable position, with company earnings not looking set to excite us on the upside. To matters more personal - I have just been privileged to spend four days cycling in Malawi. For those of you who have not been there - put it on

your Bucket List. The lake is absolutely awesome; measuring 365 miles by 52 miles, it is home to exquisite tropical fish, other larger fish species, beautiful birdlife and perhaps one of the friendliest local populations in Africa. They also have brilliant Wildlife Reserves, however, being on a bicycle tour we never managed to get to see these. We cycled 500 kilometers in three days, raising funds for a wonderful South African charity called “Change a Life” which supports a few exceptional local initiatives. They have raised R10 million over the last three tours, and I am, after recovering from the anatomical sensitiveness resultant of cycling so far so quickly, a committed supporter of the tour and it's incredible charitable efforts. A gentle reminder that diversification is always a good idea. We regard the current levels at which the rand is trading as an opportunity to add to your Foreign Allowance or Asset Swap investment portfolios. This does not presuppose an imminent meltdown in the local unit or market - it simply takes advantage of a currency anomaly where overseas portfolio managers, in search of some sort of yield, have gone overweight emerging market bonds, particularly S.A., and when this reverses, the Rand might quite quickly fall to levels in the mid eights, where fair value probably lies. A brief note covering two themes: firstly, we are placing fairly large amounts of liquid money into a unit trust which captures a secure, liquid, tax efficient return, by investing in fixed price preference shares, guaranteed by the bigger five banks. I mention this because dividend income funds, which have proliferated in recent years, carry, in some cases, tax risk and we think that to run this risk is unwise. Please consult with your NFB advisor to seek advice on optimizing the return on cash you might have in your own name, that of a family trust or in your business. Secondly, a reminder regarding the tax and forex amnesty which has formally been announced. This is a second bite at the cherry and it is advisable to take advantage of what is on offer. It covers local tax as well as undisclosed foreign assets and is similar to the previous amnesty of a few years back. We would recommend you consulting your tax advisors and would support this in any way possible. Mike Estment, CFP® BA CEO, NFB Financial Services Group

IN THIS ISSUE From The CEO’s Desk Understanding the Payments of Death Benefits From Retirement Funds “Live Long and Prosper”

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