NFB Proficio Issue 69

Page 1

NFB FINANCIAL UPDATE Issue69 August2013

FROM THE CEO’s DESK

I

have commented recently about the importance of ensuring that your wealth manager shows you how to maintain the real buying power of your portfolio. This is because longevity, which has become kind of a given, is indeed a double edged sword. From one point of view, it lends one more time after retirement to enjoy with your family, notably children and grandchildren, but, from another point of view, exposes you and those responsible for looking after your well being, to much greater risk. These risks include running short of money, inflation, particularly rampant increases in the cost of suitable medical treatment, and so forth. In my last editorial I also spoke about the importance of diversifying both across asset classes and across geographies. Across geographies really means going global with one's money, and, once there, buying things which will also deliver real returns over time. I have since been approached by several clients and have had some interesting discussions regarding the "How?" of this proposition. We are all aware of the danger inflation poses to the "buying power" of portfolios. I guess the question is how to turn this negative force into our ally. One approach we have adopted, complementing the NFB Model Portfolios which do this for you, is where we have taken a look at major local and global stocks. We have sifted through them with our portfolio specialists and found some long term choices with good records of dividend payment and dividend growth. The same could be said of property investment where the income, mostly in the form of rentals, escalates ahead of inflation over time. However, the property market at present seems a little trickier to enter. What we next looked at was ten years out. Taking a look at the dividends these quality companies pay now, then going back to see what the share would have cost ten years ago, will give you a sense of what represents an interesting opportunity. Generally, if you invest R100 into a share which enjoys a R3 dividend, the "yield” is 3%. Assuming this dividend grows over a decade to R10, you are clearly earning the equivalent of 10% on your original investment. And you will also enjoy growth in the share price, although the price will be pretty volatile, being affected by both the company's own performance, but also by markets in general. This amplifies why this is only appropriate for long term monies! Compare this to cash where, currently, 4 to 5%

financial services group

is all you can expect. On which you pay tax. Rates may very well rise, but this will only be until the cycle reverses and back down goes the return. And there is zero chance that the bank will give you any extra capital when you ask for your money back! One has then to compare this with the option of investing in interest-bearing investments. For the majority of our clients, straight forward managed cash investments only make sense either for money which must remain accessible, or for the "in case" reserve some of us like to keep handy. For the rest, the after-tax returns seldom allow real returns. Most notably, when one draws an income from investments the net result is even worse. This would be typical of a retired person. The graphs we have included spell out the concept outlined above. The problem highlighted above with respect to interest-bearing investments is worsened when you consider the ongoing growth in dividends seen in the graphs, compared to the cyclical trend interest rates follow. Right now we are at a cyclical low, and in the not too distant future we should see interest rates firming. This typically happens as a reaction to the economy growing. It is engineered by the Central Bank and is intended to slow things a little. The Date

31/12/2002 31/12/2003 31/12/2004 31/12/2005 29/12/2006 31/12/2007 31/12/2008 31/12/2009 31/12/2010 30/12/2011 31/12/2012

Date

31/12/2002 31/12/2003 31/12/2004 31/12/2005 29/12/2006 31/12/2007 31/12/2008 31/12/2009 31/12/2010 30/12/2011 31/12/2012

Date

31/03/2002 31/03/2003 31/03/2004 31/03/2005 31/03/2006 31/03/2007 31/03/2008 31/03/2009 31/03/2010 31/03/2011 31/03/2012 31/03/2013

Price

33.92 44.08 74.02 85.29 106.31 112.59 83.00 102.00 107.55 98.75 118.88

Standard Bank Trailing Dividend 12m Yield DPS 1.40 1.70 1.80 3.00 3.60 4.34 3.86 3.86 3.86 4.25 4.55

4.1% 3.9% 2.4% 3.5% 3.4% 3.9% 4.7% 3.8% 3.6% 4.3% 3.8%

Dividend Yield (Original Price) 4.1% 5.0% 5.3% 8.9% 10.6% 12.8% 11.4% 11.4% 11.4% 12.5% 13.4%

Imperial Tobacco (Offshore) Price Trailing Dividend Dividend 12m Yield Yield DPS (Original Price) 918.06 28.72 3.1% 3.1% 957.22 36.55 3.8% 4.0% 1,241.77 43.51 3.5% 4.7% 1,511.53 48.73 3.2% 5.3% 1,749.10 53.95 3.1% 5.9% 2,359.97 60.48 2.6% 6.6% 1,850.00 63.10 3.4% 6.9% 1,960.00 73.00 3.7% 8.0% 1,968.00 84.30 4.3% 9.2% 2,435.00 95.10 3.9% 10.4% 2,373.00 105.60 4.5% 11.5%

Price

78.60 49.05 72.80 98.00 121.00 159.15 177.01 141.07 214.24 242.62 307.26 485.50

SABMiller Trailing Dividend 12m Yield DPS 2.69 2.14 1.94 2.40 2.72 3.70 4.49 5.34 3.72 5.51 7.06 9.10

3.4% 4.4% 2.7% 2.4% 2.2% 2.3% 2.5% 3.8% 1.7% 2.3% 2.3% 1.9%

Dividend Yield (Original Price) 3.4% 2.7% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.7% 5.7% 6.8% 4.7% 7.0% 9.0% 11.6%

opposite could then be expected when the economy slows. The expected reaction will be a systematic and controlled reduction in rates until the "cheapness" of money makes it attractive for borrowing and spending which typically restimulates the economy. Whilst lower rates suits borrowers, it harms investors' returns. This wavelike pattern means the investor is unlikely to grow value over time in cash. Add to this the fact that all that is given back after you finally redeem the investment is the same nominal amount you originally invested, and the risk of holding cash becomes clear. The question next asked is: “why don't we all just put our money in stocks or property and just wait it out?” Unfortunately, the circumstances of each of us as investors needs very careful consideration before this approach is possible. Differing wealth, needs and factors such as age of investors, their dependants, taxation issues, business and career risk and many more need to be understood before adopting any investment strategy. The fact remains that many very successful investors are on record with the fact that they simply buy stocks with any net cash flow they receive and live off the dividends. It is pretty continued on back page...

P/E ratio

7.6 8.3 11.4 10.8 11.3 9.7 8.3 13.2 14.6 11.1 12.3

P/E ratio

25.7 18.9 23.2 16.0 16.4 20.2 36.6 29.9 13.3 13.7 34.8

P/E ratio

17.0 22.6 21.3 12.5 18.7 19.8 16.1 11.8 24.1 23.5 15.1 25.6

fortune favours the well advised


Turn static files into dynamic content formats.

Create a flipbook
Issuu converts static files into: digital portfolios, online yearbooks, online catalogs, digital photo albums and more. Sign up and create your flipbook.