NFB Proficio Newsletter Issue 70

NFB FINANCIAL UPDATE Issue70 Oct2013

FROM THE CEO’s DESK

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Mike Estment BA, CFPÂŽ CEO - NFB Financial Services Group

IN THIS ISSUE Front Page: From the CEO’s desk Center Page: A Strange World: Great Expectations meets Reality Check Back Page: Our contribution to Mandela Day

eing away, I thought that covering several varied themes might make for an interesting change.

We humans are really quite complex. We probably take ourselves and our relevance far too seriously. Part of this relates to our selective amnesia. As a recent example, a British cricketer stood his ground in accordance with the rules, having noisily and obviously (to everyone but the umpire) nicked the ball into the awaiting hands of an Aussie slip fielder. The furore and reaction from the Aussies, their media and most other commentators and aficionado's (in fact everybody other than the collective SA and England supporters) was deafening. We are such cynics! Broad should have walked, but to be hung, drawn and quartered by the Aussies, who had made some premature bad calls and had run out of reviews! After all, it was they who invented the habit of standing their ground and making umpires earn their keep years before.

I am currently reading the book written about the untimely death of Brett Kebble. He was initially lauded as a change agent in the sometimes grimy world of mining. His death and the extraordinary events which led to it, make interesting reading. If the opinions and findings of our top investigative journo's and private eyes are anything to go by, we should be taking a good look at business and people in civil society, not only taking pot shots at government and the corrupt civil service!

Traveling in Italy, as we are as I write this editorial, I asked a friend about Zimbabwe, post the recent general election (or sham, as you prefer). He noted the opportunity when Mr Mugabe was about to retire two elections back. The then powerful Morgan Tswangerai, grabbed the opportunity to mention war crimes, fraud, etc. wrestling defeat from the jaws of victory, not only for the MDC, but Zimbabwe as a whole, crystallizing the government and its security services into holding on at all costs, allowing Zim to deteriorate into what has become an intransigent mess. The recent election has been followed by a cabinet shuffle indicating Bob is going nowhere and is intent to keep

those around him weak and respectful of his supremacy. Perhaps South Africa needs to pay careful attention to this chain of events and manage its own future carefully and with lots of diplomacy.

I note the subtle and not insignificant movement around 'fracking' in South Africa.

The government is now finessing the rules as opposed to considering the viability of this game-changing source of power.

Interestingly, the USA becomes a power exporter in a few years' time and the geopolitical impact of this is not to be under estimated. The Middle East's survival and the tactical position around the moderate Arab states might undergo change in the eyes of the USA in years to come, as the strategic importance of Middle East oil wanes. This warrants ongoing attention. As far as our economy is concerned, the vast gas resources trapped between rock particles in the Karroo could be the catalyst of significant growth and also the saving of massive foreign exchange, once developed. There are various views surrounding the Eco impact of fracking, but listening to Bonang Mohale, Chairman of Shell in SA, has changed my rather 'greenie' take on the subject.

Last but not least, I had the pleasure and privilege to listen over dinner to Kingsley Holgate the adventurer and unofficial Minister of Rhinos! An interesting and well-read man, he challenged the audience with a thought provoking idea. He presented seven stones, each he said representing ten effective years of our lives. He then said to keep only the one representing the decade you currently are in, in your pocket. The idea was to ensure you took full advantage of the time with the stone. Many of our clients, who we have known for almost three decades, are already beyond seventy. This is OK! Remember, we are all living longer, but this does not mean you can elect to worry about trivia, fail to smell the roses and love your life, and particularly, those near to you.

Our job is to support your efforts to ensure your investments are appropriately positioned to allow this to happen in a secure way. Many thanks for your support and custom.

financial services group

fortune favours the well advised

Image credit: 123RF Stock Photo

A Strange World: Great Expectations

meets Reality Check

By Andrew Duvenage, Director/Private Wealth Manager - NFB Gauteng

The story so far The last 5 years have seen incredible performance figures coming out of local markets. After the financial crisis of 2008, investors have benefited from significant recoveries in asset values, despite the great uncertainty that the world has been living with. At the height of the crisis, and given the massive structural and financial system problems that existed in America and in Europe, not many investors would have predicted the extent to which markets have recovered.

As gratifying as the recovery has been for investors, it does come with concerns due to what can only be described as a large disconnect between market performance and economic reality. In a South African context, we have seen a massive equity and property market surge, yet we are sitting with anaemic economic growth. With the JSE flirting with its all-time high, the conclusion that can be made is that South African businesses (on aggregate) are worth more than they have ever been worth. Logic would dictate that for this to be true and sustainable, these businesses must be operating in very good conditions – economic conditions that support the businesses operations, revenue streams and consequently their valuations.

But is this the case? South Africa's GDP growth (rate of growth of the economy) has been sluggish (around 3 %). Labour relations in South Africa are not in a good way resulting in significant disruptions in the economy as well as unsustainably high wage increases which negatively influence the profitability of businesses (in fact in this regard, South Africa was rated as

started deploying these assets into the worst of markets with higher interest rates.

148 countries in Similarly, large amounts of money the World found its way into equity markets.

Economic Emerging markets were major Forum's most beneficiaries of this set of recent Global circumstances resulting in material Competitivene increases in equity prices, property ss Survey). On prices, and bond markets and in the a macro level, currencies of these countries. South high levels of Africa too benefited from large unemployment inflows of foreign money, which (officially at around 25%, but in reality helped buoy most market sectors, probably a fair bit higher) are of despite the lack of good, strong concern. Similarly, the continued economic fundamentals to support underperformance in the education the new levels being created. outcomes of the country (where we rank an abysmal 146/148 countries in the same WEF Non-resident buying of South African bonds survey) represent massive headwinds to economic performance. While there are certainly bright spots in terms of the South African economy, the economic reality which we currently face, is not an environment in which we would normally expect equity valuations to be at all-time highs.

Unintended Consequences

Source: Citi Research, Datastream

A logical question would be to ask why we have seen such strong performance in our markets in the context of soft economic conditions.

The answer is to a large extent explained by the concept of unintended consequences. After the 2008 economic crisis, central banks across the world aggressively cut interest rates (close to 0% in the US, and 0.5% in the Euro Zone) and pumped money into the financial system. The aim was ultimately to stimulate economic activity and to promote recovery. While we are seeing signs of this strategy succeeding (specifically in the US context), there was a somewhat unintended consequence that arose.

Huge volumes of money found their way into financial assets as opposed to into economic activity. The so called “carry trade” is a great example of this. Investors began to take very large sums of money out of the low interest rate environments in the US, Europe and the UK, and

The risk of a disconnect The disconnect between financial markets and economic performance represents a challenge for investors. If the logic is accepted that certain “abnormal” factors (extremely low interest rates and huge amounts of liquidity being pumped into global markets) are influencing the performance of markets, one has to consider what will happen when these factors are removed. The risk here is that when global interest rates start to increase, and when the so called “Quantitative Easing” program starts to taper off, we could potentially see significant reductions in asset prices as the tide of global money realigns itself to reflect a new reality.

At this point, the focus will in all likelihood shift back towards economic fundamentals and whether the performance of specific assets justify the prices that they are

currently trading at. The concern is that the economic fundamentals may not be supportive of the valuations. As an example, the JSE (on aggregate) is starting to look somewhat expensive when comparing its PE ratio to historical averages. Thus, very strong earnings will need to come out (in a soft economic period) in order to support these valuations.

Listed Equity PE Ratio JSE ALL Share Index (AJ253)

Realigning Expectations Despite concerns regarding the disconnect that we see and “abnormal” factors that could potentially unwind, the suggestion is not to dump market related assets and sit in cash. What is being highlighted is that investors must be cognisant of risk and must understand their ability to absorb volatility.

Unfortunately, the strong performance of markets has resulted in investors disregarding risk, and looking to position themselves more aggressively than is appropriate in order to “get in on the action”.

Investors (and advisors for that matter) in times of strong market performance, should aim to capture as much of the upside as possible, but still be cognisant of the risk that exists in the assets that are driving the returns in portfolios.

The key here is to ignore historic returns and realign ones expectations for returns.

So what is realistic? A good starting point in answering this question is to look at historical returns over an extended period of time.

Over the past 30 years the JSE has achieved approximately 17% per annum. Whilst historical performance is just that – historical - it is still a good starting point. A period of 30 years gives a better indication of what should be expected as it contains performance from both good and bad times in the economic cycle. But this is the new South Africa – how can our past performance be an

indication of our future prospects?

Whilst many fundamentals have remained the same, there have been significant changes to the structure of the SA economy. Changes in fiscal and monetary policy have resulted in a significantly lower inflationary environment, and change in political dispensation has resulted in significant opportunities for economic growth and development. So technically, to use an historic figure as the basis for our future estimates may not be reasonable. Let's look at it from a different angle to get back to our question regarding realistic expectations. What are the basic components of determining a realistic return?

Firstly you need to get compensated for inflation, next for economic growth [GDP], and then be compensated for the risk associated with investing.

What does this mean in numbers? o The reserve bank has an inflation target range of 3-6% o GDP growth is around 3% o A fair equity risk premium for SA is approximately 5% Thus, a simplistic estimate for an expected return in equity investments is in the region of 10-14%. Whilst this method is by no means an exact science, it gives us a useful benchmark to assess our long-term performance.

The implication How does having a realistic benchmark help us? The first outcome is that with lower expected returns, time horizons are going to have to change. The returns of the last 3 years have meant that many investors have achieved their financial goals in record time. This situation is probably not going to be repeated in the near future and thus investors are going to have to shift from a short-term mindset to a long-term outlook. In practical terms this means that investors who have had great success with strategies that can be loosely defined as speculative will have to pay far more attention to their long term strategy, and to do this they will have to focus on asset allocation. Briefly, asset allocation is the blend of the various asset classes [cash, bonds, property and equity] in a portfolio. This blend is determined by factors such as age, time-horizon, appetite for risk, and investment objectives.

The implementation Now that realistic expectations have been re-established, it is important that the investor revisit their investment strategy. To do this, the following framework can be used: 1. Set your financial goals 2. Calculate the required rate of return to achieve these goals 3. Examine the asset allocation that would be required to reach this rate of return 4. Assess risk attached to this asset allocation 5. Adopt the investment strategy or adjust your financial goals if the risk attached to the asset allocation isn't commensurate with your personal risk profile

Conclusion With the myriad range of products and funds available in the market that need to be thoroughly assessed and blended to give you the perfect mix required to achieve your financial goals, it can be a daunting task out there on your own. We would recommend consulting and using a qualified NFB financial advisor who can give you the independent, broad-spectrum advice that will help you come to an informed decision that will enable you to have the quality of life for which you have worked so hard. The perfect reaction to this opinion, is not to rush out and cancel all your investments and start again, it is the careful assessment, preferably with an advisor who you feel comfortable with, of every product, cash flow, and portfolio as well as life policies you have. Quite often, institutions can, and will, accommodate simple changes to the product or portfolio and these can make an incredibly positive change to your investment outcome.

Andrew Duvenage CFP®, MBA, B.Com. Hons Director/Private Wealth Manager - NFB Gauteng

OUR CONTRIBUTION TO

MANDELA DAY NVest staff with all the Icebo Day Care Centre children & Pat from LAFN

Touching lives in our community‚ you too can make a difference! By Robyne Moore, NVest Holdings, East London after th

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Image credit: 123RF Stock Photo

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for this year's Mandela Day. Funds were raised through monetary donations, company civvies days and cake sales. Barry Moldenhauer, from Mdantsane Build It, very kindly donated 40 litres of paint, turpentine and brushes. With the funds raised we were able to buy much needed educational equipment such as play dough, books, puzzles, colouring-in books, crayons, scissors etc. Fresh oranges and apples were taken out, as well as some chips and sweets. For fun we added balls, skipping ropes and motorbikes, as the playground only consisted of a two-swing set and a make-shift sandpit.

The Icebo Day Care Centre is a shack in a rural area and the children who attend are between the ages of 3 and 6. On any one day there can be as few as twelve children and as many as thirty. Unfortunately, as transport is a scarce resource and the children sometimes have very far to walk, some days they do not attend crèche at all which means that, besides missing out on vital cognitive, physical and emotional stimulation provided by the dedicated and trained childcare practitioners, it also means that those children will probably not receive a nutritious meal that day.

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he campaign message for Mandela Day is “Nelson Mandela has fought for social justice for 67 years. We're asking you to start with 67 minutes”.

The first Mandela Day was held in 2010 and has since been celebrated every year on Madiba's birthday, the 18th July. This is an international celebration in honour of Nelson Mandela with the objective being to inspire all people “to be of service to one's fellow human”. By taking action in some way, no matter how small, we are able to help others and thereby transform the world to make it a better place.

With this in mind, and as part of our corporate social responsibility, NFB took the decision this year to be “hands on”. NVest Financial Holdings (of which NFB is a subsidiary) has nominated the Loaves and Fishes Network (LAFN) as its charity. LAFN is an award-winning, East London based NGO that offers support to impoverished community initiated crèches (currently supporting 29 crèches) through its three year Early Childhood Development practitioner training programme, by feeding the children who attend the crèches with two nutritious daily meals and by trying to find funding to improve, refurbish and renovate general crèche infrastructure. Through this charity, e Bryc n& r we chose Icebo, a township elma hole fo rs e a rl H Cha digging a tree crèche and one of the n Wild ana Melany Bo the b aforementioned 29 crèches plantin tes & Robyne g the lit tle pea Moore supported by LAFN, as the beneficiary ch tre

On the day, a large group of staff from across the NVest companies, was taken out to Icebo by Pat Mtintsilana, General Manager of the LAFN, to participate in planting some trees and seedlings in the crèche's veggie garden. Some staff played with the children, painted with them and at one stage there was an informal “soccer” match being played.

Unfortunately, we were unable to paint the exterior of the crèche as the weather did not play its part, but a week later a small group of enthusiastic staff again ventured out.

By lunchtime we were all done and dusted and Icebo Day Care Centre now has a fresh coat of paint!

We cannot change the world overnight and it is not possible to help everyone, but it is my belief that every individual has the ability to impact the life of another. And as human beings, I believe it is our duty to do as much as we can, where and when we can – especially for those who cannot help themselves.

So when July 2014 rolls around, ask yourself....WHAT CAN I DO TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE ON MANDELA DAY?

Robyne Moore NVest Holdings, East London

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