NFB Proficio Newsletter Issue 75

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NFB FINANCIAL UPDATE Issue 75 August 2014

FROM THE CEO’s DESK

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n Johannesburg this July morning the temperature at 4:18 a.m. was -3.5°C, compared to that on the JSE this month of 101°C! I immediately knew what course of action to take as my iPhone alarm wakened me to go cycling. I heeded the advice of our cycling aficionado, turned over, switched the alarm off and stayed in bed for an extra fifteen minutes. Now I'm up and with a little sense of guilt, writing this editorial about markets, emotions and other more predictable things, whilst a few of my cycling mates are out there doing battle with hyperthermia and hills. This brings me to the subject of markets, indices and logic. Some editions ago I opined on the tremendous sense in staying invested in strong dividend paying shares. This view holds good now and will still be relevant whether a clearly expensive market suffers a setback or maintains its recent trajectory. My opinion is based on simple

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Mike Estment CFP professional BA / CEO - NFB Financial Services Group

financial services group

arithmetic. If dividends average out at 3% per annum, and if these are grown at inflation beating returns each year, you will clearly be rewarded by growing dividends. After 10 or more years, the dividends earned expressed as a percentage of your original purchase could easily be in the mid teens. So, provided you have saved hard and invested over many years, you might hold on to shares, whilst the share price follows the trend of the JSE, provided you don't sell, and rely on using the dividends to provide you with income (if needed). Selling shares should be a luxury reserved for times when they are at new highs and as part of an overall strategy clearly understood by you and your advisor. Being a slave of the market, using funds designated to provide you with income, or worse still, using borrowed money is dangerous and unwise. The most particular example of these is when investing in overheating markets, just like those we find right now in South Africa. When investing, the logical thing to do is firstly understand your intentions clearly. These would include how much you invest and your targeted maturity value. When this end value is needed, your tolerance to risk in achieving this goal, the likelihood of the cash being needed earlier among other issues is all relevant. Also worth knowing is the “risk free rate” i.e. the return from cash, and the likely premium your chosen investment might deliver. This allows you to assess the risk adjusted return on offer. Right now, committing the family farm to the JSE would not be very sensible, given the record highs we hear about every other day. We would rather a cost averaging approach be adopted, or that funds be deployed into more conservative yet still growth oriented solutions, and these being monitored and moved to more aggressive alternatives when the market goes through any material corrections. An indicator of markets being frothy and representing increased likelihoods of sell-offs include the publication of articles which

regard the current winning trend as different to the previous ones which ended in significant corrections in equities and indexes. This time is most certainly NOT different. A further indicator, which is repeated in the latter phases of sometimes protracted and significant bull markets, is the emergence of loads of new listings. This bears careful consideration as not only does this act as a precursor to softening markets, they also warrant careful scrutiny as less than ideal vendors can smokescreen a pile of rubbish into a listing which offers no value to sometimes greedy investors carelessly jumping into stocks without really doing the necessary research or using appropriate expert advisors. In both cases history is littered with sad tales of good money following bad into these traps. Much has been written recently about certain counters in the property space where vendors are offering not only a property portfolio, but a management company with significant costs involved if the buyers decide to discontinue the management contracts. This doubledip risk would have a material negative impact on the investment case, making the advice of professional advisors or skilled brokers crucial in navigating these cloudy waters. The business case supporting investment into dividend yielding stocks holds good for both local and offshore portfolios. We look forward to assisting you in allocating funds into appropriate and flexible solutions given a clear understanding of the considerations noted above. It is time again to start considering the venue for our Spring Party, and just two months later our 2014 Xmas function. My experience of time accelerating is becoming quite scary! My mom and dad warned me about this phenomenon I never believed. I guess the nice thing about this is I will not let my mates down as the a.m. temperature will be a balmy 17°C and the market hopefully a tepid and more enduring 75°C.

fortune favours the well advised


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