NFB FINANCIAL UPDATE Issue 77 December 2014
FROM THE CEO’s DESK I
nvited to the launch of a new proposition at Investec recently, I had the privilege to listen to the musings and insights of their CEO, Stephen Koseff. I rate Stephen highly as a down to earth and pretty straight shooting leader, who happens to run a rather substantial and successful banking and asset management group. What is of particular importance is to note that Investec are both providers of services and products to NFB and are also competitors in certain respects. Nevertheless, it is important to give credit where it is due and, probably even more importantly, to listen when sense is being spoken. Amongst the important takeouts of someone close to the coalface in our socalled budding democracy, were the following items: Europe remains a troubled zone, struggling with establishing the political will to sort its banks and economies out. It looks and feels at present a bit like Japan two decades back where their various halfbaked efforts at restarting their economy left their investors, markets and economy at large in a mess for a long, long time! The US has taken the bull by the horns, has recapitalized its economy, its banking
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Mike Estment CFP professional BA / CEO - NFB Financial Services Group
financial services group
sector and is already re-establishing itself as a powerful influence on global flows, activity and politic. Probably critical is the free market influence, and notable, was Janet Yellen's interest and focus on the American middle-class. She has really made a mission of promoting this as the engine of growth and where she wants business and government to focus on ensuring wage increases. This represents a belief in the middle-class being the real driver of employment, taxes and competitiveness in global markets. An obvious area of concern, moving the focus to the East, was China slowing down, and the focus there moving from a development of cities and infrastructure to a more keen focus on local consumption and maturing the economy to promote the establishment of a successful middle-class from the tens of millions of Chinese who have become urbanized. This has a risk for the emerging market economies which have enjoyed the uptake of their basic metals, minerals and other products China required in the growth phase. Japan was a further focus. Here Abenomics seem to be promoting growth, inflation (from decades of deflation) and a weakening of the yen making the country's products competitive once again in the highly competitive world markets. Stephen's key observation (once again similar to Europe's) was the demographic challenge. Japan has more old people with a dearth of young folk having children. This has major ramifications for the future. Not only will this put undue pressure on pension funds where the young subsidize the pensioners, it will also have a marked impact on government's funding of healthcare amongst others. Japan therefore cannot be the source of a global recovery and a sustained growth in GDP, but is rather a potential beneficiary of activity elsewhere. And, as always, we then switch our attention to South Africa, considering our own circumstances, as well as the impact these and foreign reality will have on our markets, economy and society at large. Firstly, and notably, Stephen was very complimentary about both the current and past Ministers of Finance. He referred to our remarkable Minister, Pravin Gordhan, who previously ran one of the world's least competent revenue services, and made it the envy of most global Exchequers. He referred to Minister Nene's academic background and experience in Finance and Treasury, as well as his forthright manner, seeing him and the Governordesignate of the SARB as talented, brave and competent people. The importance of this cannot be ignored. But
successful countries don't rely on one or two appointments. Minister Gordhan has been repositioned and, although his new title is confusing, he really has to kick some behinds in municipalities. Getting this right is a bigger and much more diverse role to running SARS or even the Finance Ministry. It is surely one of the most daunting roles, but if anybody can sort it, Pravin would be on my short list! Another important issue raised was the historical disconnect between government and the private sector. It was Stephen's opinion that this rift, given the shock results in the recent elections, is being repaired. Issues such as the success the private sector has had in developing and delivering alternative energy into the national grid whilst the parastatal, Eskom, continues to be woeful in the completion of new resources and the effectiveness of the current grid, amongst other initiatives, is receiving positive response from within the ministries. Early days, but perhaps the powers that be realize, not dissimilarly to the Nats many years ago, that the tanks are empty and they need a plan that works. Stephen saw Eskom and power disruption, as well as the unraveling and messy situation in organized labour, as the two most damning aspects of our current situation. I fully agree, and the uncomfortable reliance and tension between the government and labour, as well as the tolerance of the government in the delayed completion of the new power stations, is destructive both in the economy as well as, importantly, amongst foreign investors seeking an investor-friendly destination. I'm afraid we are nowhere near the place we should be in this aspect which, naturally, would alleviate unemployment, bring in much needed foreign capital and simply boost South Africans' morale and belief in the potential. Reflecting on my last few editorials, I noted a hint of negativity creeping in. This is not my nature and presentations like the one Stephen gave with gloves off made me reflect. Firstly, on this remarkable place we call home. Secondly, on the remarkable people who are unique in attitude and fortitude. Political, social and global forces are always in motion. It is our responsibility to act, save and behave in a manner that looks at all the evidence and leads our still youthful democracy into a high road outcome. I can't wait for my sons to deliver us a few grandchildren who, I hope and trust, choose to enjoy this special place as we have been privileged to.
fortune favours the well advised
The Local and International Markets of 2014
How have we fared?
W
e started 2014 with optimism and hope of another prosperous year. Financial markets around the globe had yielded generous returns for investors over the previous 2 years. Our election was only a few months away and South Africans were hopeful of a better administration. Could 2014 be a year that consolidates growth and reduces our everpresent unemployment? The government needed to focus on the basics:
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Water sanitation Education for our future leaders and workforce Adequate power for commercial and residential use Lower unemployment with sustained job creation
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programs Tax collection Health care for the growing population Crime prevention Restoring much needed business confidence Efficient municipal administration Attracting foreign investors Training our ever increasing unemployed Infrastructure investment Opportunities for all Natural resources need value added
The â&#x20AC;&#x153;Wealth Creationâ&#x20AC;? acronym above highlights what South Africans need to ensure growth in our economy. SARS recently announced that the 2013/14 fiscal year had collected R900 billion in tax revenue. Next year should see revenue reaching R1 trillion and, hopefully, with less corruption we, the taxpayers, can see the growth that we expect and deserve. At the risk of sounding totally negative, 2014 has been a challenging year. The elections came and went, parliament took on some brighter colours, corruption continues to flourish, E-tolls remain unresolved, the SABC struggles with leadership, the mines experience their longest strikes in history, African Bank is put under curatorship, a downgrade by Moody's, Eskom's woes continue, and so on! Despite all the negativity we still managed to see the JSE All Share Index soar to new highs, reaching 52,323 on 29 July 2014. True to market behaviour, a sharp pull back saw the JSE All Share Index sliding almost 11% in as many weeks. The move from emerging markets back to developed markets (primarily the US), lead to major pull backs in many small economies over the most recent 3 months. The tables below indicate the Year to Date (YTD) returns for the developed markets and a basket of emerging markets in base currency (base ccy) terms as well as in US dollars.
Developed Markets Country
12 Nov 2014
YTD Return Base CCY
YDT US$ Return
52w High
52w Low
S & P 500
USA
2,041
10.35%
10.35%
2,041
1,738
18.03
Nikkei 225
Japan
17,197
5.56%
-3.60%
17,443
13,885
20.71
EuroStoxx 50
Europe
3,075
-0.98%
-10.29%
3,325
2,789
21.73
UK
6,600
-2.19%
-5.87%
6,905
6,073
18.74
Germany
9,276
-2.77%
-11.91%
10,051
8,355
16.65
Country
12 Nov 2014
YTD Return Base CCY
YTD US$ Return
52w High
52w Low
P/E Ratio
Istanbul 100
Turkey
79,467
17.55%
11.60%
84,356
60,753
10.27
JSE All Share
South Africa
50,647
9.11%
1.86%
52,323
42,921
17.69
MexBol
Mexico
44,301
3.68%
-0.50%
46,554
37,752
25.50
Bovespa
Brazil
52,474
1.88%
-5.90%
62,304
44,904
17.04
Malaysia
12,583
-2.72%
-4.33%
13,186
12,172
15.85
FTSE 100 DAX
P/E Ratio
Source: Bloomberg
age credit: 123RF Stock Photo
Emerging Markets
Malaysia EMAS Source: Bloomberg
Foreign Markets The USA has been the best performing developed market reaching new record high levels. A solid return YTD of 10.35% has not been without volatility. We saw a sharp fall in the second week of October and the subsequent reversal in just 3 weeks to reach these record levels, clearly indicating the risks associated with timing the markets. The swings from lows to highs vary between 38.8% (Turkey) and just 8.3% (Malaysia) in the emerging market basket. The developed markets vary between 25.6% (Japan) and 13.7% (UK), in base currency. Once we adjust for currency fluctuations and express all returns in US dollars we see more realistic returns that managers will be reporting in dollarbased funds. Important: one year results have been used to illustrate the volatility of markets and the effects of a strong dollar on global markets. Portfolio construction will look at more investment factors and longer time frames. European investors have seen the euro lose around 11% against the dollar in the past 5 months. The EuroStoxx 50 is now back at the same level we saw in December 1998! Could this be a signal that the Euro-zone is close to bottoming out? We believe that the problems within Europe will continue for longer and that equity managers will remain cautious of European stocks. The European markets rely heavily on Germany, with France and Italy still struggling to reform.
managers to indicate how varied their asset allocations can be:
Source: Company Fact Sheets at 30 September 2014
Local Market South African Fund Managers have been anticipating a pull-back in the local equity market for some time and have held lower SA equity exposure and, where mandates permit, higher foreign equity exposure. To protect further against a weakening currency Fund Managers have favoured the large rand hedge shares (SAB Miller/Sasol/BHP Billiton/British American Tobacco/Richemont/Anglo American/Naspers). The asset class that has surprised most managers over the past 12 months has been the SA listed property sector. This sector has returned 21% since the beginning of the year. During this period of volatility most managers have been able to buy selected shares at lower prices as the JSE P/E ratio draws closer to the long term average of 15. Currently the P/E is around 17.69 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; well down from the 20.25 ratio we saw in May/June of 2013. It is well known that asset allocation will add (or subtract) more to the long term returns than the actual stock selection. In constructing a client portfolio, NFB Asset Management and our team of experienced Financial Advisors will blend Fund Managers to diversify risk and asset allocation decisions. We have compared in the graphs that follow the asset allocations in September 2013 and September 2014 of four balanced
Article written by: Laurie Wiid CFPÂŽ professional B.Com Director/Private Wealth Manager NFB Gauteng
Source: Company Fact Sheets at 30 September 2014
These charts are a simple snapshot at two points in time and don't indicate the movement between asset classes during the year. The actual stock selection, trading activities and asset class selections have resulted in the following past returns: Term 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
Fund A 13.6% 19.8% 16.4%
Fund B 11.9% 19.1% 16.2%
Fund C 10.3% 15.8% 14.4%
Fund D 14.8% 19.8% 15.9%
The one similar feature we see is that all four managers have held the maximum offshore exposure of 25% for the duration of the past 12 months. The performance differential between the managers in the short term is 4.5%, but narrows to 2%p.a. over 5 years. Balanced Funds or Asset Allocation Funds have the ability to invest in all major forms of asset classes. Factors to consider include: interest rates, inflation, bond yields, economic data, currency flows, share prices and the like. What's important to our clients is achieving the desired return within the acceptable risk parameters. One of our roles is to blend managers that behave differently to one another and thereby reduce overall risk to our client portfolios. We trust that 2014 will finish on a high note, and that this will merely be the platform for continued good returns for years to come. Should you wish to discuss or revisit your risk parameters going into the new year, please do not hesitate to contact a financial advisor at any one of the NFB offices in Johannesburg, East London, Port Elizabeth, Stellenbosch or Cape Town.
The Use of Retirement Annuities vs Unit Trusts for Retirement Planning
I
am often asked which is a better investment vehicle: unit trusts or retirement annuities? My answer to that question depends on a number of factors, which once I have gone through, will assist you to invest in the appropriate one, taking into account your particular circumstance. Let us start by looking at the table below. It is clear that in this example, the client effectively invests R3 000 per month more into the retirement annuity, than into the unit trust. This is because of the tax deduction, which is limited to the greatest of the following: < 15% of taxable income from non-retirement funding income; < R3 500 less current deductible pension fund contributions; < R1 750 Assuming that the underlying investments both yield a 10% per annum return over the 10 year investment term, the client would end up with R2 048 449 if invested into a retirement annuity and R1 433 914 if invested in a unit trust. If tax erosion is also taken into account (as can be seen above), the client would end up even better off in the retirement annuity, with R2 049 449 as opposed to R1 227 000 in the unit trust. What makes retirement annuities even more attractive as an investment vehicle is that they are also fully protected against the claims of creditors. The main benefit a unit trust has over a retirement annuity includes the fact that the client is able to access their funds within 5-7 working days. This provides liquidity to the investor, which isn't available to clients who have chosen a retirement annuity investment. These clients only have access to 1/3rd of their funds from the age of 55 (taxed according to the lump sum retirement tax tables),
with the other 2/3rds having to be transferred to a compulsory annuity (either a living annuity or a guaranteed annuity). The only exceptions to this rule includes the following: < The client formally emigrates; < The client passes away; < The client becomes disabled. However, if a client does decide to cash in their unit trust investment, it may also result in capital gains tax consequences, which won't be an issue with retirement annuities, as there is no capital gains tax payable if invested in them. So, it is clear that if you are not needing access to your funds until the age of 55 and are contemplating whether to invest into a unit trust or a retirement annuity, the latter will result in a larger nest-egg come retirement age and the only reason you should really be considering going against the grain and making use of unit trusts, is if liquidity is an issue. In that case, it may be an idea to split your investments between the two investment vehicles in an appropriate proportion. If you need any further advice on retirement annuities or unit trusts, please don't hesitate to contact an NFB financial advisor at any one of the NFB offices in Johannesburg, East London, Port Elizabeth, Stellenbosch or Cape Town.
Article written by Bryce Wild, B.Com (Honours), PGDFP Private Wealth Manager - NFB East London
Unit Trusts Retirement Annuities Amount R7 000 pm for 10 years R10 000 pm for 10 years * Growth 10% 10% Final Value R1 433 914 R2 048 449 Less Tax Erosion +- 14.43% ** = (R206 914) 0% = (R0) Net Value R1 227 000 R2 048 449 *Above assumes tax saving from the RA contribution is saved and deductible, assumed marginal tax rate of 30% **Tax Erosion = 1.12% on interest, 6.35% on CGT, 6.96% on Dividends Witholding Tax â&#x20AC;&#x201C; no exemptions used. (The idea and figures above were taken from an FPI case study)
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