Columnist
John Campbell Economics & Business Editor, BBC Northern Ireland
A Hero in Zero BBC NI’s Economic & Business Editor, John Campbell, discusses what it means to get to the goal of “net zero” by 2050.
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ith the pandemic and Brexit continuing to dominate the conversation about our economy, you can be forgiven if you missed the publication of Stormont’s energy strategy consultation. But it could turn out to have the greatest economic consequence, as it gives us the first real sense of how the Executive is planning to get to net zero carbon emissions by 2050. That will mean, within the span of a single generation, fundamental changes to housing, transport, industry and agriculture. With the UK about to host a major summit on climate change the phrase “net zero” will be heard a lot in the coming months, but it’s worth reflecting on what it means. The UK, like most countries, has signed up to the Paris Agreement – a legally binding international treaty that aims to tackle climate change. The goal of the agreement is to limit global warming to below 2 degrees Celsius, but preferably below 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels. Doing this will involve a rapid and significant reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, primarily carbon dioxide. Net zero means reducing those emissions as much as possible and then using a variety of technologies and techniques to remove any residual emissions from the atmosphere. Essentially that will mean a radical transformation of the energy platform on which our economy and society has been built over more than 200 years. Since the first Industrial Revolution, around 1800, our economy has become increasingly reliant on burning carbon-dense fossil fuels – first coal, then oil and gas. That must stop almost entirely within 30 years if the net zero ambition is to be realised. That means no gas or coal-fired power stations, no petrol or diesel vehicles, no oil or natural gas home heating.
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That is an awesome ambition and Northern Ireland will have to play its part in the broader UK strategy. We don’t start with a completely blank sheet of paper. For example, there has already been considerable success in decarbonising electricity generation. In 2005, just 3% of Northern Ireland’s electricity came from renewable sources. Now it’s almost 50%. There is an interim target of getting to 70% by 2030. But that can’t just involve doing more of the same. It will need new policies and substantial investment in the grid. And that very quickly brings us to the realities of net zero – it will involve massive upfront investment and an open political debate about who pays for it. The grid operator SONI has published its own consultation paper on getting to the 70% target, with four options requiring grid investment of between £113m and £535m. One of the options assumes that 700 megawatts of renewable energy comes from offshore wind. Northern Ireland currently has no offshore wind infrastructure despite it being talked about for 20 years. This interim grid investment is just a tiny fraction of what will be required in total. The Climate Change Commission (CCC), the UK’s statutory independent advisor on tackling climate change, has estimated that Northern Ireland will need to invest £10bn in energy supply to get to net zero.
