LMD Dec 2016

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Riding Herd

“The greatest homage we can pay to truth is to use it.”

by LEE PITTS

– JAMES RUSSELL LOWELL

December 15, 2016 • www.aaalivestock.com

Volume 58 • No. 12

Reviving Cool BY LEE PITTS

An Industry In Decline

The easiest way to find something lost is to buy a replacement.

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s we say goodbye to 2016, forecasters telling us what to expect for cattle prices in 2017 are as accurate as the ones who predicted Great Britain would still be part of the EU and that Hillary would be writing her inaugural address about now. According to Purdue economist Chris Hurt, “Using futures prices on November 7 as a proxy for cash prices suggest 2017 finished cattle would average in the higher $90’s.” According to Hurt, “USDA analysts who use fundamental price models are forecasting the average finished cattle price to be between $112 to $121.” In other words, your guess is as good as theirs.

Back To Where We Started From

NEWSPAPER PRIORITY HANDLING

We have just witnessed the most volatile cattle market in perhaps anyone’s lifetime. Fat cattle prices rose by $59 then fell by $75 in less than two years! Who will ever forget the euphoria in 2014 as fat cattle prices rose above $1.70, 400 pound bawling Nevada calves brought $1,500, and all the “smart” people were telling us the good times would roll well into 2018. Fast forward to October of 2016 when fat cattle were trading below a buck and ranchers who’d paid $3,000 for bred replace-

ment heifers at the peak were wondering if those purchases would produce enough in their lifetime to pay for their initial cost. We’re back to the prices we were at before the otherworldly spike in cattle prices began. Meanwhile, costs for cow/calf operators have spiraled higher and stocker operators who retained ownership, or had to renegotiate land rents based on the higher market, are now flat broke, or are trying desperately to renegotiate those contracts. Most ranchers are tradition-

ally too tight-lipped to open their books to spying eyes but Kansas cattleman Mike Schultz shared his numbers to illustrate the severity of the crash. In 2014 he received $1,835.00 per calf, by far the best ever, but in 2016 he received $694.00. That’s a loss of $1,141.00 per head! “In my own case,” says Schultz, “with 90 calves x 1,141.00 loss in revenue x 2 years = $205,380.” Multiply that by the total number of calves in the country and you come up with a 20 BILLION DOLLAR LOSS. And Schultz thinks even that may be low.

Bill Bullard, R CALF CEO, says, “Four out of every ten beef producers who were here 30 years ago are gone today. Something has gone terribly wrong, and you saw your cattle prices fall farther and faster than any other industry today. That’s not an industry in a progressive state. That’s an industry in decline, and that’s your industry. It’s on a trajectory to decline unless you do something different than what we have done in the last 20 years.” That explains why 400 ranchers showed up at the sale barn in Aberdeen, South Dakota, to gather in one of six meetings organized by R CALF to discuss what could be done to stop the bleeding. Herman Schumacher, cattle feeder, former auction market owner and an R CALF co-founder helped organize the continued on page two

Rural Interests Plan to Fight New BLM Planning Regs BY JOHN O’CONNELL CAPITAL PRESS

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national livestock industry leader warns proposed changes to the Bureau of Land Management planning process are on the fast track for implementation and threaten public lands grazing. Ethan Lane, executive director of the Public Lands Council, which represents cattle and sheep ranchers with public lands grazing permits, said senior BLM officials have assured him a final version of the agency’s proposed Planning 2.0 will be released before the current administration leaves office. “I think it’s incredibly dangerous, and it’s going to take Congress’ full attention to protect the West and Western states from this effort,” Lane said. “The net effect is grazing and any other multiple use on BLM land will be threatened.” BLM sources couldn’t be reached by press time for comment on the time line for Planning 2.0, which would represent the first update to agency planning rules in about 30 years. The aim, according to BLM literature, is to “revise regulations that implement (the Federal Land Policy and Management Act) to include best practices learned over decades.” BLM documents insist the changes should improve transparency and public involvement while building trust among stakeholders. Crit-

ics, including rural county leaders and industry officials, note the proposed rule shortens public comment periods from 90 days to 60 or 45 days, depending on the stage. Revised priorities in the draft document remove language requiring an assessment of policy impacts on local economies, replacing it with “impacts of resource management plans on resource, environmental, ecological, social and economic conditions.” Lane believes the emphasis on the environment would come at the expense of BLM’s current mandate to manage for “multiple use and sustained yield.” “It’s wholly inappropriate for them to change their mission unilaterally to plan for intangibles like social and environmental change,” Lane said. Written comments submitted on behalf of several Western counties and organizations, including Custer County, Idaho, and Baker County, Ore., emphasize the changes would remove FLPMA requirements for BLM to make land-use decisions with “meaningful involvement” from state and local governments. “Every other entity will have the same opportunity as the state and local governments to work with the federal government at the same level,” said Kelly Aberasturi, an Owyhee Councontinued on page four

Man Up

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en, it’s time we had a talk. I hope you’re as ashamed as I am about the news that the sperm count of the average male in this country is down 30% compared to just three years ago. At this rate we’ll all be eunuchs in seven years. Here’s another statistic that should make you hang your head in shame. Your average American male now spends 51 minutes per day grooming himself. Gone are the days when a guy could be ready to go someplace in two minutes, now it’s the woman waiting on the man. And here’s the scariest report of all: Viewership of the NFL is down for the first time in forever. Probably because guys are too busy watching reruns of Project Runway or Ellen. Pick up any ag related publication and you’re bound to see photos of FFA officer teams. In many of these you’ll not see a single male. I was President of the California Association of the FFA when women were first allowed in and it was an oddity to see a female in an FFA jacket. Now the roles are reversed and guys wearing the blue and gold are as rare as an alto saxophone in a bunkhouse. When I was studying Animal Science in college it was 90% guys, most of them longing for female companionship. In the photo of the last graduating class at my alma mater it looked like all women with a token guy or two. I went into the hardware store the other day and in the plumbing department I was waited on by a female. Is nothing sacred? I’ve heard of men attending bridal showers and of far too many wives leaving their husbands for other women. I really can’t say as I blame them either when you consider the sad state of manhood these days. Who amongst us doesn’t have a male relative who is drinking wine instead of beer, arguing about pilates versus yoga in his support group, eating salads with names I can’t pronounce like arugula and raddachio, taking their pet Shih Tzus to continued on page four

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