Riding Herd
“The greatest homage we can pay to truth is to use it.”
by LEE PITTS
– JAMES RUSSELL LOWELL
December 15, 2018 • www.aaalivestock.com
Volume 60 • No. 12
Or So We Were Told BY LEE PITTS
A true cowboy knows love, pain and shame but never cares about fame.
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ver since the beef checkoff went into effect on July 18, 1986, we could count on regular “independent survey results” informing us that 70% or more of all cattlemen approved of the beef checkoff. Typical of such glowing report cards was the one that told us that for every beef checkoff dollar collected, cattlemen were receiving back $11.20 in revenue. You’d have to be a complete, knuckle-dragging ignoramus to not want to invest one dollar to get back eleven. No wonder that between 2010 and 2015 we were told 69% to 78% of ranchers were in favor of the checkoff. Approval of the checkoff peaked in the early 1980’s when four out of five ranchers were in favor of continuing to pay it. At its worst the highest number of ranchers I could find that disapproved of the checkoff was 27%. Or, so we were told.
It’s Hillary In A Landslide
NEWSPAPER PRIORITY HANDLING
Some of the oldest and most highly circulated livestock periodicals got so used to printing positive stories about the checkoff through the years that they may have started believing their own BS. Perhaps it’s my cynical nature but I never did believe the glowing poll results about the checkoff because, after all, the checkoff was paying
for them. Or rather, you were. You don’t have to be a genius to figure out that reporting a negative opinion of the checkoff would be a sure-fire way for a polling company to lose the lucrative beef checkoff account. A wise author told me years ago that you may have lost your touch as a writer when you start believing the blurbs on the covers of your books. Perhaps Drovers may be guilty of believing their own blurbs because on November 13, 2018, they boldly asked their readers if they believed the checkoff was helping to stimulate beef
demand and supporting their cattle business? Surely Drovers was confident that their results would echo those obtained by the polling outfits hired by the Beef Board. After all, Drovers has gone gaga for the NCBA from day one and has been in a war recently with R CALF, the anti-NCBA of the beef business. If Drovers had any idea the results would be so bad we’re confident they’d have never asked the question to begin with. Imagine their surprise when 54% of those responding to the Drover’s poll said, “No”
the beef checkoff WAS NOT stimulating demand or helping their business! How could this be? Weren’t we regularly told 70% of those paying the checkoff were in favor of it? Who knew that Drovers readers were such a bunch of anti-NCBA’ers and radical R CALF members? How else could you explain why 54% of Drover’s readers did not believe the checkoff helped their business or increased demand for beef? Who did the polling for the Beef Board and the NCBA, was it the same outfit that said Hillary would be elected in a landslide? Could the disparity in the results be explained away by a large difference in the sample size? Not really. CBB sponsored polls typically polled 1,000 to 1,200 while 926 Drovers readers responded to their poll. Statistically, the 10 to 15% difference in the sample size would not explain such concontinued on page two
Beef demand is key and less certain in 2019 BY DERRELL S. PEEL, OKLAHOMA STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION LIVESTOCK MARKETING SPECIALIST / FEED-LOT MAGAZINE
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ontinued growth in U.S. beef production will keep the focus on beef demand in 2019. Beef production is slowing but is forecast to increase 1.5-2.0 percent year over year in 2019 to 27.5 billion pounds. This follows a projected 3.3 percent year over year increase in 2018 beef production to a record level of 27.0 billion pounds. Beef demand, including both domestic and international components, has played a key role in moving growing beef supplies through beef markets. Through 2018, total beef production has increased 14.2 percent (3.4 billion pounds) since the recent 2015 low. Strong beef demand has supported prices and margins at all levels of the beef and cattle industry as beef production expanded. Continued strong beef demand will be critical in 2019 as beef production pushes to new record levels. There are, however, continuing and perhaps growing challenges and threats to beef demand in the coming year. In addition to record beef supplies, pork and poultry production will increase from record 2018 levels to new record production totals in 2019. Thus far, beef has maintained good demand relative to pork and
poultry as indicated by the fact that beef retail prices are at near record ratios compared to retail pork and poultry prices. Beef trade has played a big role in moderating the domestic supply pressure from increased beef production. Beef exports are up 13.3 percent year over year through September. This follows year over year annual increases of 11.8 percent in 2017 and 12.8 percent in 2016. Beef imports have held steady in 2018, up just 0.4 percent so far this year. Total annual beef imports decreased 0.7 percent in 2017 following a 10.6 percent year over year decrease in 2016. Numerous factors could become a bigger threat to both domestic and international beef demand in 2019. The U.S. economy has supported beef demand thus far but recent stock market volatility highlights fragile macroeconomic conditions going forward. Rising interest rates and growing budget deficits will add to inflationary pressures and contribute to a stronger dollar. A rising dollar could add to export headwinds in the coming months. The uncertain global trade situation continues to hang over beef and other agricultural markets. There is general agreement that trade disruptions will likely reduce U.S. and globcontinued on page eight
Long Gone Y
ou’ve worked, scrimped and saved to put together a ranch for your children only to learn that your kids want no part of the ranching lifestyle. This has created a shortage of slave labor on ranches that could lead to the decline of western civilization. So I’ve developed a little test to determine early on if your children want to come back home to the ranch or move to New York and become a ballet dancer. Please answer “yes” or “no” to the following questions. (1) Does your son or daughter refuse to wear a cowboy hat and does he or she have a nose ring, tongue stud and a colorful collection of tattoos? (2) Would you say your child prefers the music of Kanye, Jay-Z, Notorious Mr. Big, Snoop Dogg, Dr. Dre, Ice Cube, 50 Cent and Busta Rhymes over that of Kenny Chesney, Brad Paisley and Carrie Underwood? (3) Does your child attempt to get out of chores around the ranch by insisting he or she is allergic to hay and animal hair? (4) Would your offspring prefer a family summer vacation going to Lego Land and the Star Wars exhibit at Disneyland over spending a week showing an animal at the county fair? (5) Does your offspring prefer to wear a black hoodie with Cargo pants instead of Levis, Wranglers and a Carhartt sweatshirt? (6) On the day of your annual roundup and branding, does your child claim to have a headache or flulike symptoms and insist on a day of bed rest? Is your child’s affliction that of the 24-hour variety? And does your child seem to prefer drones and robots to cows and horses? (7) Did your child spend his or her formative years in juvenile hall instead of the FFA or 4-H? (8) Is there a PETA or a “Save the Wolves” sticker anywhere on your son’s skateboard? (9) For Christmas would
continued on page four